Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Q2 2018
20 September 2018
Accelerating success.
Colliers Quarterly
JAKARTA | OFFICE
Q2 2018
20 September 2018
Rents
Ferry Salanto Senior Associate Director | We assume a 1% increase YOY in CBD
Jakarta office rents at the end of 2018. Fuelled
by a more measured quantity of supply
In the half of 2018, the total office demand in the next year, average rents are set to
CBD was equal with that in the same period in 2017. increase by less than 1% at the end of
However, rents remain under pressure by 2018. Meanwhile, average rent outside
unabsorbed spaces that have become available the CBD should be relatively flat until the
since 2017, coupled with large vacant spaces since end of 2018, but it will likely climb
considerably by 4% in 2019 and 8% in
early 2018. As such, there is bigger pressure on
2020.
landlords, and this has created a tenant market
situation. Prices
The relatively small sales throughout
Forecast at a glance 2018 should maintain the current office
price until the end of the year. With the
Demand lack of new office supplies for sale, the
We look forward to a gradual increase in CBD will likely see a moderate 5.5%
office leasing activities. We recorded increase in 2019, particularly because
more office enquiries in Q2 2018, which we still believe that the absorption of
would likely be executed in the next strata-title offices will probably not be
three or six months. Nonetheless, such significant next year. In 2020, office
enquiries are dominated by office prices in the CBD should increase
relocation, which should not affect our further by 6.8% due to the lack of supply
overall occupancy projection. and more active sales activities. The
situation is also true outside the CBD,
Supply where prices are predicted to grow by
In Jakarta, around half-a-million square 3.4% per annum in 2018 and 2019, and
metres of new office space (64% will likely continue to reach 4.6% in
scheduled to be in the CBD) should 2020.
become available for occupancy in the
remainder of 2018. Furthermore, around
660,000 sq m of new office spaces are
scheduled open between 2019 and 2020
(45% should be in the CBD). Central Business
Occupancy
Occupancy in the CBD is predicted to
record a low 79% by the end of 2018.
District
We then project it to rebound modestly
to 82% in 2019. Fuelled by stronger
economic projections and fairly low
Office Spaces Offered for Lease
supply in 2020, we project occupancy to Supply
further rise to 85%. Occupancy should
decline slightly outside the CBD, to 82% Four office buildings in the CBD officially opened in H1
at the end of 2018. Due to the large 2018, bringing a total of around 340,000 sq m or 50% of
amount of new supply in 2019, the total scheduled supply for 2018. Two buildings
occupancy will likely moderately edge coming on stream in Q2 include The Tower (in Gatot
down to 81% but will probably regain Subroto) and Menara Astra (in Sudirman). Cumulative
strength to 84% in 2020, mainly because office supply in the CBD is now 6.32 million sq m,
of a limited supply in that year. showing a 5.8% increase YTD.
Cumulative Office Supply In general, developers consider the foundation of
Indonesia's economy to be quite strong. They believe
8,000,000 that the property industry will probably grow in line with
7,000,000 Indonesia’s economic projections, which is expected to
be stable and improve in the long term. We still see the
6,000,000
desire of developers to build office buildings particularly
5,000,000 in well-established business districts, such as in the
sq m
500,000
400,000
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
sq m
300,000
Annual Office Supply
200,000
700,000 100,000
600,000
0
500,000
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
400,000
sq m
300,000
200,000 For Lease For Sale
100,000
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
0
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
500,000
2018
Sopo Del Tower B Mega Kuningan 24,300 For Sale Under Construction
World Trade Center III Sudirman 70,000 For Lease Under Construction
World Capital Tower Mega Kuningan 72,000 For Sale Under Construction
2019
Lippo Thamrin Office Tower MH Thamrin 16,500 For Sale Under Construction
2020
Social Security Tower HR Rasuna Said 23,500 For Lease Under Construction
2021
Indonesia Satu North Tower MH Thamrin 43,000 For Lease Under Construction
Indonesia Satu South Tower MH Thamrin 88,500 For Lease Under Construction
Jakarta Office Tower by MORI Sudirman 90,000 For Lease Under Construction
2018E
2019E
Pre-Committed Absorption of Office Spaces for
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Lease
2018E
2019E
2018YTD
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Average Asking Rents (in IDR/sq m /month) by
Building Grade
2017 Q1 Q2 CHANGE
2018 2018 Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
QOQ HOH
Premium 449,283 459,110 400,825 -12.7% -10.8%
Service Charges
Grade A 280,854 311,055 299,566 -3.7% 6.7%
Grade B 234,746 226,399 230,330 1.7% -1.9%
Service Charges by Sub Market
Grade C 177,343 175,445 184,533 5.2% 4.1% IDR 180,000
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research IDR 150,000
Satrio
Thamrin
Sudirman
Gatot Subroto
Mega Kuningan
Rasuna
246,696 250,929 246,644 -1.7% 0.0%
Said
Gatot
338,600 349,096 339,853 -3.0% 0.4%
Subroto
Satrio 234,679 268,810 255,894 -12.7% 9.0%
Mega
252,665 255,862 256,479 -1.2% 1.5%
Kuningan Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
IDR30,000
IDR0
2017
Office For Lease Strata-Title Office
IDR40,000,000
IDR30,000,000
IDR20,000,000
IDR10,000,000
IDR0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018YTD
2018E
2019E
2,000,000 300,000
1,500,000 250,000
1,000,000 200,000
500,000 sq m 150,000
0 100,000
50,000
0
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
200,000
TB Simatupang
North Jakarta
East Jakarta
0
1,000,000
1,200,000
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
2018
St Moritz Office Tower Puri Indah West Jakarta 30,000 For Sale Under Construction
SOHO Pancoran Pancoran South Jakarta 30,000 For Sale Under Construction
The Sima TB Simatupang South Jakarta 60,000 For Lease Under Construction
Arcade Business Center Pantai Indah North Jakarta 22,000 For Lease Under Construction
Kapuk
Robina Tower Tendean South Jakarta 9,600 For Lease Under Construction
Wisma Kartika Grogol West Jakarta 11,770 For Lease Under Construction
One Belpark Office Pondok Labu South Jakarta 17,800 For Lease Under Construction
2019
Jakarta Box Tower Kebon Sirih Central Jakarta 36,000 For Lease Under Construction
The Unity Casablanca South Jakarta 80,000 For Lease Under Construction
Arkadia Tower G TB Simatupang South Jakarta 30,000 For Lease Under Construction
Agung Sedayu Office Tower Pantai Indah North Jakarta 50,000 For Lease Under Construction
Kapuk
MNC Tower II Kebon Sirih Central Jakarta 60,000 For Lease In Planning
2020
Citra Tower 1 Kemayoran Central Jakarta 40,000 For Sale Under Construction
One Tower Kemayoran Central Jakarta 21,400 For Sale Under Construction
Beltway Office Park Tower 4 TB Simatupang South Jakarta 10,000 For Lease In Planning
The Manhattan Square Tower 2 TB Simatupang South Jakarta 39,375 For Lease In Planning
2021
Wisma Barito Pacific 2 Slipi West Jakarta 26,000 For Lease Under Construction
Southgate Office Tower Tanjung Barat South Jakarta 30,000 For Lease In Planning
MTH 27 Office Suite Cawang South Jakarta 25,000 For Lease In Planning
Ciputra International Office Tower 2 Cengkareng West Jakarta 20,000 For Lease In Planning
100% 90%
90% 80%
80% 70%
60%
70%
50%
60%
2010
2011
2018YTD
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
50%
2019E
2018YTD
2018E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
*exclude TB Simatupang
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Pre-Committed Absorption Office Supply for
Since Q1 2017, the average occupancy rate of office Lease in 2017 – 2018E
buildings outside the CBD increased 2.9% to 84.8%.
IDR50,000 South
Jakarta
237,960 238,743 218,000 -8.7% -8.4%
(excl. TB
IDR0 Simatupang)
2018YTD
2018E
2019E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
TB
Simatupang
243,270 241,471 223,803 -7.3% -8.0%
(excl. South
Jakarta)
2018YTD
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Office rent in TB Simatupang continues to be depressed
by the influx of new office buildings scheduled to come
on stream in the remaining months of 2018. In response Outside the CBD* TB Simatupang
to the current market situation, these future office
buildings have introduced rent tariff that is slightly below *exclude TB Simatupang
the average market rate. As such, we anticipate a
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
declining rate by 2-3% YOY at the end of 2018.
IDR140,000 IDR120,000
IDR120,000
IDR100,000
IDR100,000
IDR80,000 IDR80,000
IDR60,000 IDR60,000
IDR40,000
IDR40,000
IDR20,000
IDR0 IDR20,000
Outside CBD TB Simatupang
excluding TB IDR0
Simatupang Office For Lease Strata-Title Office
IDR50,000,000
Average Service Charges by Region
IDR40,000,000
CHANGE
2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 IDR30,000,000
QOQ HOH
North IDR20,000,000
54,084 54,882 56,713 3.3% 4.9%
Jakarta
IDR10,000,000
Central
62,893 63,865 65,691 2.9% 4.4%
Jakarta IDR0
2018YTD
2018E
2019E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
West Jakarta 55,496 55,723 57,515 3.2% 3.6% 2017
East Jakarta 43,036 48,734 48,734 0.0% 13.2%
South
Jakarta
55,907 56,652 57,278 1.1% 2.5%
(excl. TB Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang
Simatupang)
TB Simatupang
TB
Simatupang
63,308 63,308 64,557 2.0% 2.0%
(excl. South Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Jakarta)
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research The office market outside the CBD will probably only
witness an addition of 90,000 sq m space to the
cumulative supply of strata-title offices, which should be
recorded at 975,000 sq m by the end of 2018.
2017
2018E
JAKARTA | APARTMENT
Q2 2018
20 September 2018
Rent
Ferry Salanto Senior Associate Director | Rent seems to have stabilised
Jakarta throughout 2018, whilst the overall 3-4%
increase in rent per annum in 2019-2020
We expect the apartment market to remain lacklustre is quite a moderate projection amidst the
in 2018, given the persistently weak sentiment tight rental market.
highlighted by slower capital gain appreciation and a
sluggish rental market. We believe low affordability, Price
which is typical in a stagnant economic growth, We still expect room for price increases
despite the current slowdown. We
prolonged weak sentiment, as a large incoming supply
expect from now to 2020, unit prices are
continues to plague the market. Also, potential buyers expected to increase by 4.5-5.5% per
may prefer to wait and see, given the looming general annum.
election that is scheduled to be held in April 2019.
Meanwhile, the interest rate hike could be a bane
when affordability is already a major concern amongst
buyers. Strata-title
On the other hand, given the strong response for
affordable projects underpinned by the healthy Apartment…still in
demand from end-users, gives optimism for the robust
line-up of new launches coming from the middle-lower
segment in the coming quarters. Affordable rates
doldrums
combined with lower mortgages should attract
developers to partake in this market. Both local and Supply
international developers join the competition to grab
this huge potential market. We are still in a positive The slow Ramadan period, which fell in Q2 2018, was
view over the residential property market in the long traditionally quiet when it comes to project launches.
term, on the back of the large and relatively young During the quarter, there were only three projects
population, as well as a low mortgage penetration launched, totalling 1,944 units. These include Apple
ratio. Residence, Puri 8 Residence and Sakura Garden City
(Cattleya Tower). Apple Residences is a low-rise
apartment, where each of the floors is an independent
Forecast at a glance dwelling. Apple Residences offers studio to three-bedroom
Demand type of units, targeting the middle market segment.
Apartment market sentiment continues
to be weak and we project the take-up Sakura Garden City (previously Southeast Capital) is a
rate to reach 84-85% by the end of mixed-use development with local developer Trivo Group,
2018. Overall demand will likely recover collaborating with Daiwa House and Japan Overseas
to 85-87%, as the market should be Infrastructure Investment Corporation for Transport &
more confident after the general and Urban Development (JOIN), under the name PT. Sayana
presidential elections in 2019 and 2020. Integra Property. This project is scheduled to be Daiwa
House’s first residential project after actively developing
Supply
We expect an additional 16,081 units or industrial parks and rental warehouses. Located on a 12-
8.3% of the current stock coming online hectare site and consisting of 12 towers, a shopping mall
in the remainder of 2018. The and hotel, the project is planned to come in four phases.
forthcoming annual supply will likely still
be significant in number, around 20,234
units in 2019 and 14,324 units in 2020.
COMPLETED APARTMENT PROJECTS DURING Q2 2018
The H Residence Kemayoran (Amethyst) Rajawali Central Jakarta PT Hutama Karya Realtindo 900
Selatan
Puri Mansion Apartment (Tower Amethyst) Puri West Jakarta Agung Sedayu Group 800
Kembangan
Puri Orchard (Tower Cedar Heights) Raya Adicipta West Jakarta Serenity Group 1,050
Total 3,740
Puri 8 Residence (3 towers) Duri Kosambi West Jakarta 2022 IDR15.5 million 1,094
Sakura Garden City (Cattleya Tower) Bina Marga East Jakarta 2022 IDR15 million 550
Another brand-new project, Puri 8 Residence, was Along with the government’s intense infrastructure
developed by the joint venture between local developer, programme, the TOD (Transit Oriented Development)
PT Midas Citra Utama, and Japanese real estate concept has already been widely introduced to promote
investment company, Creed Group. Targeting the middle the benefits of living with direct access to a massive
to low market segment, Puri 8 Residence is Creed Group’s transportation hub. We believe that big developers are
second residential project after collaborating with becoming more active in launching mid-low class projects
Jababeka to develop Kawana Golf Residence, a serviced and might target less favourable locations on the outskirts
apartment with a golf resort. of Jakarta, where they can set a more competitive price
compared to downtown. Furthermore, we see foreign
The mid-low products are generally well-absorbed, developers joining the competition to grab this huge
compared with other segments. Several developers have potential market.
already done some promotions selling this product, eyeing
unit price below IDR1.5 billion. Another effort involves
selling the transportation concept.
2018
Sudirman Suites Jl. Jend. Sudirman CBD Pikko Group 380 In Operation
Casa Domaine (Tower I) Jl. Jend. Sudirman CBD Lyman Group 162 In Operation
The Suites Satrio Jl. Prof. Dr. Satrio CBD Ciputra Group 200 Under Construction
Gayanti City (2 Towers) Jl. Gatot Subroto CBD PT Buana Pasifik 598 Under Construction
International
Anandamaya Residences (3 Jl. Jend. Sudirman CBD Hongkong Land 500 Under Construction
towers)
Lavie Jl. Denpasar Raya CBD Wilsor Group 302 Under Construction
Regent Residences (tower 1) Semanggi CBD PT Kencana Graha Global 100 In Operation
The Elements Epicentrum (2 Jl. HR Rasuna Said CBD Sinarmas Land 372 Under Construction
Towers)
T - Plaza Residence (Tower A & Jl. Penjernihan Central Jakarta PT Prima Kencana 614 Under Construction
C)
The H Residence Kemayoran Jl. Rajawali Selatan Central Jakarta Hutama Karya Realtindo 800 In Operation
(Amethyst)
Signature Park Grande Jl. MT. Haryono East Jakarta KSO Fortuna Indonesia 1,100 In Operation
(Pikko)
Bassura City (Tower Jasmine) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta Synthesis Development 480 In Operation
Bassura City (Tower Heliconia) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta Synthesis Development 700 In Operation
Regatta London Tower Jl. Pantai Mutiara North Jakarta Intiland Development 186 In Operation
Pluit Seaview (Tower Ibiza) Pluit North Jakarta Binakarya Propertindo Group 500 Under Construction
LA City Apartment (Tower A) Jl. Raya Lenteng South Jakarta Pancanaka Samaktha 980 Under Construction
Agung
Nine Residence Warung Buncit South Jakarta PT Lippo Karawaci 246 Under Construction
Pakubuwono Terrace Grand Kebayoran Lama South Jakarta PT Selaras Mitra Sejati 435 Under Construction
Tower
District 8 (Tower Eternity) Jl. Senopati South Jakarta Agung Sedayu 461 In Operation
District 8 (Tower Infinity) Jl. Senopati South Jakarta Agung Sedayu 440 In Operation
Izzara Apartment (South and North Jl. TB Simatupang South Jakarta Grage Group 542 In Operation
Tower)
Bellevue Place Jl. MT Haryono South Jakarta Gapura Prima 240 Under Construction
One Casablanca Residence Jl. Palbatu South Jakarta Forza Land 215 Under Construction
The Foresque Jl. Pasar Minggu South Jakarta PT Griya Karunia Sejahtera 660 Under Construction
(Binakarya Propertindo
Group)
The Langham Residences Jl. Senopati South Jakarta Agung Sedayu 57 Under Construction
The Aspen Peak at Admiralty Jl. Fatmawati South Jakarta PT Harmas Jalasveva 322 Under Construction
(Tower D)
Casa Grande Residence 2 (Tower Jl. Casablanca South Jakarta Pakuwon Group 350 Under Construction
Angelo)
continued
continuation
Casa Grande Residence 2 (Tower Jl. Casablanca South Jakarta Pakuwon Group 350 Under Construction
Bella)
Casa Grande Residence 2 (Tower Jl. Casablanca South Jakarta Pakuwon Group 350 Under Construction
Chianti)
Pondok Indah Residences (3 Pondok Indah South Jakarta Metro Pondok Indah 880 In Operation
Towers)
Pakubuwono Spring (2 towers) Jl. Teuku Nyak Arief South Jakarta PT Simprug Mahkota Indah 545 Under Construction
(Agung Podomoro Group)
Branz Simatupang (2 towers) Jl. TB Simatupang South Jakarta Tokyuland 381 Under Construction
Synthesis Residence Kemang (3 Jl. Ampera Raya South Jakarta Synthesis Development 1,100 Under Construction
towers)
Gianetti Apartment Jl. Kebon Jeruk Raya West Jakarta Bangun Investa Graha 500 Under Construction
Puri Mansion Apartment (Tower Jl. Lingkar Luar Barat West Jakarta Agung Sedayu Group 900 In Operation
Amethyst)
Puri Orchard (Cedar Heights Jl. Raya Adicipta West Jakarta PT Adicipta Graha Kencana 1,050 In Operation
tower) (Serenity Group)
Vittoria Residence (3 tower) Jl. Daan Mogot West Jakarta PT Duta Indah Kencana 400 Under Construction
Taman Anggrek Residence (6 Jl. Tanjung Duren West Jakarta Agung Sedayu 3,000 Under Construction
towers)
Ciputra International Puri Indah Jl. Lingkar Luar Barat West Jakarta Ciputra Group 412 In Operation
(Tower Amsterdam)
Grand Madison Park Jl. Tanjung Duren West Jakarta Agung Podomoro Group 300 Under Construction
Citra Lake Suites (Tower Jl. Raya Kresek West Jakarta Ciputra Group 116 In Operation
Rosewood)
Citra Lake Suites (Tower Jl. Raya Kresek West Jakarta Ciputra Group 140 In Operation
Greenwood)
Ciputra International Puri Indah Jl. Lingkar Luar Barat West Jakarta Ciputra Group 335 Under Construction
(Tower San Fransisco)
Puri Mansion Apartment (Tower Jl. Lingkar Luar Barat West Jakarta Agung Sedayu Group 700 Under Construction
Crystal)
West Vista (2 towers) Jl. Lingkar Luar Barat West Jakarta PT Harapan Global Niaga 2,840 Under Construction
2019
South Hill Jl. Denpasar Raya CBD Tan Kian 611 Under Construction
The Residences at The St. Regis Jl. HR Rasuna Said CBD Rajawali Property Group 164 Under Construction
Jakarta
Arandra Residence (was Sentosa Jl. Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta Gamaland 687 Under Construction
Residence) Raya
Sudirman Hill Residence Jl. Karet Pasar Baru Central Jakarta PT Muliaguna Propertindo 299 Under Construction
Barat
Menara Jakarta (Tower Equinox) Kemayoran Central Jakarta Agung Sedayu 396 Under Construction
Menara Jakarta (Tower Azure) Kemayoran Central Jakarta Agung Sedayu 860 Under Construction
The Linq Kemayoran (2 towers) Kemayoran Central Jakarta KG Global 1,020 Under Construction
Menteng 37 Jl. Menteng 37 Central Jakarta Pikko Group & Wijaya 99 Under Construction
Wisesa
continued
continuation
Sentra Timur Residence (Tower Pulogebang East Jakarta Bakrieland Development 605 Under Construction
Safir)
Pluit Seaview (Tower Bahama) Pluit North Jakarta Binakarya Propertindo Group 650 Under Construction
Regatta Apartment (Tower New Pantai Mutiara North Jakarta Intiland Development 186 Under Construction
York)
Sedayu City (Tower Melbourne) Jl. Pegangsaan Dua North Jakarta Agung Sedayu 912 Under Construction
Raya
Jaya Ancol Seafront - Oceana Ancol North Jakarta Jaya Ancol 524 In Planning
Tower
Orient Residence Jl. Yos Sudarso North Jakarta PT Tri Raton Mega 225 Under Construction
Gold Coast Apartment (Bahama Pantai Indah Kapuk North Jakarta Agung Sedayu 600 Under Construction
Tower)
Gold Coast Apartment (Carribean Pantai Indah Kapuk North Jakarta Agung Sedayu 600 Under Construction
Tower)
Gold Coast Apartment (Honolulu Pantai Indah Kapuk North Jakarta Agung Sedayu 600 Under Construction
Tower)
La Foret Vivante Permata Hijau South Jakarta PT Mahkota Properti Indo 253 In Planning
Permata
45 Antasari (2 Towers) Jl. P. Antasari South Jakarta Cowell Development 1,924 Under Construction
Arzuria Apartment Jl. Tendean South Jakarta Tolaram Group 210 Under Construction
Fatmawati City Center - Corona Jl. Fatmawati South Jakarta Agung Sedayu 620 Under Construction
Park Suite Tower
Ratu Prabu 3 Residences Jl. TB Simatupang South Jakarta PT Ratu Prabu Tiga 61 Under Construction
Samara Suites Jl. Gatot Subroto South Jakarta Synthesis Development 300 Under Construction
Lavish Kemang Residence Jl. Kemang Raya South Jakarta PT Kemang Karya Utama 474 Under Construction
Permata Hijau Suites Jl. Raya Kebayoran South Jakarta PT Palmerindo Properti 649 Under Construction
Lama
TBS Tower Apartment TB Simatupang South Jakarta PT Mahkota Asia Graha 162 Under Construction
Kasamara Residence Jl. Kesehatan Raya South Jakarta PT MGM Propertindo 151 In Planning
19 Avenue Apartment (Tower B) Daan Mogot West Jakarta Margahayu Land 416 Under Construction
continued
continuation
Green Sedayu Apartment (Tower Jl. Kamal Raya West Jakarta Agung Sedayu 644 Under Construction
Pasadena)
Daan Mogot City (3 towers) Jl. Daan Mogot West Jakarta PT China Harbour Jakarta 700 Under Construction
Real Estate Development
Verde Two (Tower West) HR Rasuna Said CBD Farpoint Realty 152 Under Construction
Royal Suites Kemayoran Central Jakarta Springhill Golf Group 450 Under Construction
Gold Coast Apartment (Atlantic Pantai Indah Kapuk North Jakarta Agung Sedayu 568 Under Construction
Tower)
The Kensington Royal Suites (4 Kelapa Gading North Jakarta Summarecon 790 Under Construction
Tower)
Selatan 8 (Tower Prabu) Jl. Raya Ulujami South Jakarta Karya Cipta Group 344 Under Construction
St Moritz (The New Ambassador Puri Indah Kembangan West Jakarta Lippo Karawaci 200 Under Construction
Suite Tower)
Puri Orchard (Magnolia Spring Jl. Raya Adicipta West Jakarta PT Adicipta Graha Kencana 544 Under Construction
tower) (Serenity Group)
Citra Living Apartment (Somerset Jl. Citra 7 West Jakarta Citra Mitra Graha KSO 312 Under Construction
Tower)
Citra Living Apartment (Orchard Jl. Citra 7 West Jakarta Citra Mitra Graha KSO 312 Under Construction
Tower)
2020
Verde Two (Tower East) Jl. HR Rasuna Said CBD Farpoint Realty 182 Under Construction
Le' Parc Jl. MH Thamrin CBD PT Putragaya Wahana 100 Under Construction
The Newton at Ciputra World 2 Jl. Karet Sawah CBD Ciputra Group 450 Under Construction
Holland Village (Phase II) Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta PT Lippo Karawaci 230 Under Construction
The Stature Jakarta Jl. Kebon Sirih Central Jakarta Capitaland and Credo Group 87 Under Construction
The Sahid Asena Apartment and Ciracas East Jakarta Sahid Group 476 In Planning
Garden
Prajawangsa City (8 towers) Jl. Raya Bogor East Jakarta Synthesis Development 4,000 In Planning
East 8 (2 towers) Cibubur East Jakarta Karya Cipta Group 1,172 Under Construction
Sedayu City (Tower Darwin) Jl. Pegangsaan Dua North Jakarta Agung Sedayu 936 In Planning
Raya
Regatta (Tokyo, Acapulco, Sydney Jl. Pantai Mutiara North Jakarta Intiland Development 276 In Planning
Towers)
Kemang Penthouse Jl. P. Antasari South Jakarta PT Senopati Aryani Prima & 114 In Planning
PT Mahardika Gagas
Sejahtera
Antasari Heights (One Otium Jl. P. Antasari South Jakarta PT Radinka Quatro Land 360 Under Construction
Residence)
Selatan 8 (Tower Sultan) Kebayoran Lama South Jakarta Karya Cipta Group 336 Under Construction
Fatmawati City Center(5 towers) Fatmawati South Jakarta Agung Sedayu 2,080 Under Construction
Aerium Taman Permata Buana Taman Permata Buana West Jakarta PT Itomas Kembangan 366 Under Construction
(South Tower) Perdana (Sinarmas Land &
ITOCHU)
continued
Green Sedayu Apartment (Tower Jl. Kamal Raya West Jakarta Agung Sedayu 920 In Planning
New York)
Tomang Park Apartment (2 towers) Jl. Tawakal Ujung West Jakarta PT Phoenix Property 2,000 In Planning
Raya
Citra Lake Suites (Tower Oakwood) Jl. Raya Kresek West Jakarta Ciputra Group 117 Under Construction
Citra Lake Suites (Tower Sherwood) Jl. Raya Kresek West Jakarta Ciputra Group 122 Under Construction
2021
The Hundred Residence Mega Kuningan CBD PT Farpoint Realty 100 Under Construction
Indonesia
The Pakubuwono Menteng Jl. Sabang Central Jakarta Pakubuwono Development 340 Under Construction
Southeast Capital (Cattleya Tower) Jl. Bina Marga East Jakarta PT Sayana Integra Properti 823 Under Construction
(Trivo Group)
West Point Apartment Jl. Macan West Jakarta PT Andaland Property 272 Under Construction
Cluny Residence (2 towers) Jl. Arjuna Selatan West Jakarta PT Alam Makmur Property 454 In Planning
Overall, the Jakarta apartment market saw a quiet period Q2 Q1 Q2 QOQ YOY
2017 2018 2018
in Q2 2018 with the average take-up rate stabilising at
85.6% since the previous quarter, marking a decline of CBD 91.3% 90.5% 90.7% 0.2% -0.6%
0.1% QOQ, but an increase of 0.7% YOY. In our view, the South
sluggish market condition in the review period was related Jakarta 86.2% 88.3% 87.6% -0.7% 1.4%
to the shifts of people increasing their spending due to the Non-
Ramadan festivities and the new school year. prime
Area 83.4% 84.0% 84.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Despite a limited number of newly launched projects, the
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
take-up rate performance has yet to pick up. We think that
consumers still have their purchasing power, as evidenced Despite registering the highest apartment prices in
by the increasing trend of investment funds. However, Jakarta, the CBD area is still one of the most attractive
people are still hesitant to spend money to invest in places to live and work in the capital. The limited land
property. Slower capital appreciation, the generally slow remaining for development continues to be the main
rental market and increasing competition have held buyers challenge in the CBD, as this impacts overall pricing.
from purchasing an apartment. Nonetheless, Bank Albeit minor, South Jakarta has recorded a declining take-
Indonesia’s measure to increase interest rate two times in up rate along with the continued influx of new apartment
a month, to 4.75%, will likely restrain apartment demand projects.
as mortgages become costly. Also, potential buyers may
refrain from buying, and maintain a wait-and-see attitude,
given the looming general election to be held in April 2019.
2018YTD
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
5,000,000
Source: Real Estate Indonesia - DKI Jakarta,, 2018
4,000,000
Asking Price
3,000,000
Amid the relatively stagnant market condition, the average
asking prices of apartments have continued to trend
2,000,000
upward. Average asking prices of apartments in Jakarta
edged up slightly by 1.1% QOQ and 2.5% YOY to IDR33.2
1,000,000
million/sq m. The largest increases were seen outside the
0
CBD and South Jakarta areas. During this challenging
March March March March March March period, prices are relatively stagnant. The adjustment was
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 largely due to the inclusion of new projects with good
specifications and location coming on stream, and
properties that are offered at better building specifications,
Source: Indonesia Financial System Authorities (OJK)
IDR60
Supply
Asking price/sq m (IDR mio)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018YTD
Somerset Sudirman Jakarta Jl. Karet Pasar Baru Central Jakarta 2019 176
EXPATRIATES HOUSING BY AREA SIZE (SQ M) OFFERING RENTAL RATE PER UNIT (IN USD/MONTH)
MIN MAX
Menteng
Kuningan
Pondok Indah
Kebayoran Baru
Kemang
Cilandak
Cipete
Pejaten
NON-SERVICED SERVICED
Sudirman
Menteng
2BR 90 - 142 35 - 51 54 - 56
Kuningan
Pondok Indah
Kebayoran Baru
Kemang
Cilandak
3 - 4BR 164 29
3BR 300 58
Cipete
Pejaten
JAKARTA | RETAIL
Q2 2018
20 September 2018
6,000,000 4,000,000
5,000,000 sq m 3,000,000
4,000,000 2,000,000
sq m
3,000,000
1,000,000
2,000,000
0
2018E
2019E
2020E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1,000,000
0
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
150,000
sq m
CBD
100,000 North Jakarta
South Jakarta
50,000
Central Jakarta
0 West Jakarta
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
East Jakarta
NLA DEVELOPMENT
SHOPPING CENTER LOCATION REGION DEVELOPER
(SQ M) STATUS
2018
New Harco Plaza Glodok West Jakarta Agung Podomoro Land 60,000 Under Construction
2019
Shopping Mall at South Gate Lenteng Agung South Jakarta Sinarmas Land & Aeon 39,200 Under Construction
Holland Vilage Mall Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta Lippo Karawaci Tbk 40,000 Under Construction
2020
Menara Jakarta Shopping Mall Kemayoran Central Jakarta Agung Sedayu Permai 151,560 Under Construction
Pondok Indah Mall 3 Pondok Indah South Jakarta Metropolitan Kentjana 60,000 In Planning
2021
Daan Mogot City Daan Mogot West Jakarta China Harbour 28,000 In Planning
2018E
2019E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
OCCUPIED
EXPECTED
SHOPPING CENTER AREA TENANT NAME PRODUCT SPACES
OPENING
(SQ M)
Victoria's Secret Beauty
Grand Indonesia Thamrin, CBD Fashion 280 Q3 18
& Accessories
Plaza Senayan Senayan, CBD Marks & Spencer Fashion 340 Q3 18
South Bekasi,
Grand Galaxy Park H&M Fashion 2,000 Q3 18
Bekasi
South Bekasi,
Revo Town Ace Hardware Home Equipment 2,000 Q3 18
Bekasi
Sunter, North Food &
Sunter Mall Starbucks Coffee 350 Q3 18
Jakarta Beverages
Sunter, North
Sunter Mall The Foodhall Supermarket 800 Q3 18
Jakarta
Epicentrum Walk Rasuna Said, CBD Informa Home Equipment 2,400 Q3 18
Kelapa Gading,
Mall Of Indonesia Flix Cinema Entertainment 4,500 Q4 18
North Jakarta
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
IDR1,000,000 IDR2,500,000
IDR800,000 IDR2,000,000
IDR600,000 IDR1,500,000
IDR400,000
IDR1,000,000
IDR200,000
IDR500,000
IDR0
2018E
2018YTD
IDR0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research Outside the CBD, rents stood at IDR533,568 per sq m
per month. We anticipate a modest growth of less than
The average rent in Jakarta was IDR616,491 per sq m 2% by the end of 2018, given the absence of new
per month, up only 1% compared to 2017. The relatively shopping centres, especially middle-upper class
unchanged rental tariff is likely continue in H2 2018. The establishments.
CBD fetched the highest rents at IDR891,726 per sq m
per month, which is flat compared to Q1.
IDR1,600,000 IDR300,000
IDR1,200,000 IDR250,000
IDR200,000
IDR800,000
IDR150,000
IDR400,000
IDR100,000
IDR0
Central Jakarta*
South Jakarta*
West Jakarta
East Jakarta
North Jakarta
IDR50,000
IDR0
Premium Middle - Middle Middle -
Upper Lower
IDR80,000
IDR30,000
IDR40,000 IDR0
South Central North West East
IDR0 Jakarta* Jakarta* Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta
2018YTD
2018E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
*exclude CBD
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
3,000,000 Bogor
2,500,000 Depok
2,000,000
Tangerang
sq m
1,500,000
1,000,000 Bekasi
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
sq m
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
NLA DEVELOPMENT
SHOPPING CENTER LOCATION REGION DEVELOPER
(SQ M) STATUS
2018
AEON Mall Sentul City Sentul Bogor AEON & Sentul City 71,000 Under Construction
Pesona Square Shopping Mall Juanda Depok Menara Depok Asri 40,000 Under Construction
2019
Grand Dhika City Mall Bekasi Bekasi Adhi Persada Property 24,000 Under Construction
2020
Plaza Indonesia Jababeka Cikarang Bekasi Plaza Indonesia Realty & 55,685 Under Construction
Graha Buana Cikarang
2021
AEON Mall Deltamas Deltamas Bekasi AEON & Deltamas 90,000 In Planning
50%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018YTD
2018E
2019F
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
YEAR
SHOPPING CENTER AREA TENANT NAME
OPERATION
Service Charges
Rents
Service Charges in Greater Jakarta
Average Rents in Greater Jakarta
IDR120,000
IDR500,000
IDR100,000
IDR400,000
IDR80,000
IDR300,000 IDR60,000
IDR40,000
IDR200,000
IDR20,000
IDR100,000
IDR0
2018YTD
2018E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
IDR0
2018YTD
2018E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Depok
Tangerang
Bekasi
IDR180,000
IDR150,000
IDR120,000
IDR90,000
IDR60,000
IDR30,000
IDR0
Bogor
Depok
Tangerang
Bekasi
Land Price
Price will remain soft throughout 2018,
amidst the current sluggish market.
Price will likely be adjusted higher by 5%
to 10% per annum over the next two or
three years.
Industrial Land Stock Status in Some Active Other than GIIC and AIH, sales for each industrial estate
and Future Industrial Estates were relatively small in number. Modern Cikande booked
fewer transactions than last quarter, totalling around 2.71
4,000 hectares comprising the expansion of a local garment
industry with 2.46 hectares and a new local building
3,500 material company taking around 2,500 sq m of land.
3,000 Although this reflects a steady performance QOQ, the
total sale of 6.26 hectares in the first semester was only
Hectares
2,500
17.3% of total sales in 2017.
2,000
Bekasi Fajar (BFIE) reported a total of 1.71 hectares
1,500
(lower than that in Q1 2018) from three transactions,
1,000 including a 1.35-ha deal from a new local automotive
company, 2,180 sq m from the expansion of a consumer
500
packaging company from Japan and one new local
0 industry taking around 1,420 sq m. Despite representing
Bogor Karawang Serang only 25% of the total sales in 2017, it is reported that
Existing Stock sales in H1 2018 has yet to reach its peak, owing to the
Remaining Unsold Land sluggish period during the long holiday in June. The
Potential Land To Be Developed management is expecting to see substantial amount of
transactions that will potentially materialise in the second
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research semester of this year.
Land Sales Activity Several logistics companies were reported to buy a total
of 1.2 hectares of land in Jababeka, slightly smaller than
Substantial land transactions were fairly limited to the last quarter’s sales.
total deal made by two industrial estates – Greenland
International Industrial Centre (GIIC) and Artha Industrial In Karawang, the new KNIC (Karawang New Industry
Hill. These two estates made up about 60% of the total City) concluded a single 1.14-ha transaction to a new
transactions (nearly 68 hectares) in the first semester of Chinese heavy equipment company. For the last three
2018. Nonetheless, it will be very challenging for the consecutive quarters, KNIC has consistently booked
industrial market to catch up with the total sales figure land transactions, particularly benefiting from the
registered last year. Thus far, the 68-ha deal recorded in expansion of Chinese companies, given its background
the first six months this year only constituted 32.7% of as a Chinese-based company, China Fortune Land
the total sales in 2017. For the last few years, big deals Development (CFLD).
were only produced by the same industrial estates, and
therefore, expecting the amount of this year’s transaction Still in Karawang, the total quarterly sales in KIIC
volume to be the same with that of last year is tough. It dropped from 1.8 hectares last quarter to only 2,000 sq
would need a total transaction of 140 hectares in the m. The land bought this quarter was for the expansion of
remainder of 2018 to offset last year's sales an existing Japanese-based company in the plating and
performance. coating industry.
The GIIC reported a total sale of 22 hectares for two Sales transaction this quarter was closed by Griya Idola,
consecutive quarters, bolstering its position as the most which sold four SFB units (totalling to three buyers) for
active industrial estate in selling land. The food industry expansion purposes. Three local companies buying SFB
acquired around 20 hectares of land. Other than that, this quarter came from the plastic moulding, panel and
two hectares were sold to an auto-related company. chemical industries.
As a newly operating industrial estate in Karawang, On the other front, we saw an increasing leasing activity
Artha Industrial Hill (AIH) sold quite sizeable land plots to in Q2 from two industrial estates that specialises in land
four companies, three of which are Korean. This leasing, namely CCIE (Cibinong Centre Industrial Estate)
comprised 5.1 hectares to Korean textile companies, 4.5 and Kota Bukit Indah (run by Besland Pertiwi). CCIE
hectares to a Korean automotive company and 6.4 closed a leasing deal with a local logistics company of
hectares to a Korean electric company. The total 19.1-ha 1.5 hectares. Meanwhile, Kota Bukit Indah confirmed two
sales in AIH this quarter was closed by one local drone leasing deals for two units of SFB from a tenant that
and unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturer that bought produces plastics and mattresses. The biggest leasing
3.1 hectares. transactions were from tenants in the automotive and
KIIC
Food
31%
Griya Idola
0 5 10 15 20 25
hectares Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
1,200
Greenland International…
Artha Industrial Hill 1,000
Modern Cikande
800
Hectares
Bekasi Fajar
600
Kota Bukit Indah (Besland…
Jababeka 400
CCIE
200
KIIC
Karawang New Industry City 0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Q2 2018
USD/sq m
semester, as industrial developers will take ultimate USD150.00
priority to consolidate internally during the slow period.
USD100.00
Some industrial developers revealed that price is one of
the many factors that determine whether people will buy USD50.00
or not. Location is the next thing that buyers consider.
USD0.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Q2 2018
We do not see any indications in the two-most active
regions, Bekasi or Karawang, in changing the offering
price at the current level. In Serang, where one of the
most consistent estates in selling is located and land Bogor Bekasi Tangerang
price has continuously been adjusted, the overall land Karawang Serang
price has been stable QOQ.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Land price change in Tangerang may occur in certain
estates with impressive sales. However, the overall land Greater Jakarta Industrial Maintenance Costs
price might be stagnant in this region because most of
the industrial estates are not active in selling. All in all, it USD0.10
is unlikely to see price change in the reminder of 2018.
USD0.08
Most industrial estates in Karawang start their land price
USD/sq m/month
JAKARTA | HOTEL
Q2 2018
20 September 2018
Occupancy
Ferry Salanto Senior Associate Director | We foresee overall occupancy by the
Jakarta end of 2018 reaching 62.2%, up
moderately compared to the same
Jakarta’s hotel market performed relatively slow in period last year. Assuming a sound
Q2 2018 both in terms of occupancy and project economy in 2019, hotel occupancy
development. The month of Ramadan, including the would likely increase by about 63-64%.
traditional fast, triggered the overall slowdown. We
expect the Asian Games, to be held in August this Room Rate
year, to serve as a catalyst to propel the sluggish The ADR may go up marginally by 1.1%
hotel sector. This, coupled with the upcoming YOY at the end of 2018, reaching about
general elections in 2019, might create increased USD80 or equivalent to IDR1.12 million.
With the inclination that occupancy will
demand for room accommodations and convention
likely only rise modestly, we project ADR
space. for the next two years to reach USD81.
HOTEL NAME STARRED STR CHAIN LOCATION REGION NO. OF OPENING TIME
RATING SCALE RATE ROOMS
Mercure PIK Avenue 4-star Upscale Pantai Indah North Jakarta 240 February 2018
Kapuk
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
NEW PIPELINE
Holiday Inn Express 3-star Upper Matraman East Jakarta 190 Under 2018
Matraman Midscale Construction
Ibis Styles TB Simatupang 3-star Upper TB Simatupang South Jakarta 110 Under 2018
Midscale Construction
Dalton Jakarta Hotel 3-star Undefined Otista East Jakarta 147 Under 2018
Construction
Hotel by Graha Gatsu 3-star Undefined Gatot Subroto South Jakarta 100 Under 2018
Lestari Construction
Midtown Point - Ibis Styles 3-star Undefined Jl. Fachrudin Central Jakarta 225 Under 2018
Construction
Asana Taman Mini 3-star Undefined Taman Mini East Jakarta 160 Under 2019
Indonesia Indah Construction
Des Indes Boutique Hotel 3-star Undefined HOS Central Jakarta 97 Under 2019
by Preference Tauzia Cokroaminoto Construction
Artama Hotel Kebon 3-star Undefined Jl. Kebon Central Jakarta 100 Under 2019
Kacang Kacang Construction
R1 Hotel 3-star Undefined Jl. H. Agus Central Jakarta 135 Under 2019
Salim Construction
Aston Titanium Cijantung 4-star Upscale Cijantung East Jakarta 225 Under 2018
Construction
Swiss-Belhotel Kirana 4-star Upscale Kelapa Gading North Jakarta 316 Under 2018
Avenue - Kelapa Gading Construction
Erian Hotel 4-star Undefined Jl. Wahid Central Jakarta 150 Under 2018
Hasyim Construction
Front One Boutique Hotel 4-star Undefined Jl. Arjuna Raya West Jakarta 100 Under 2019
Arjuna Construction
Novotel Cikini 4-star Upscale Cikini Central Jakarta 274 Under 2019
Construction
Aloft Jakarta Simatupang 4-star Upscale Jl. TB South Jakarta 180 Under 2019
Simatupang Construction
Batiqa Casablanca 4-star Undefined Jl. Casablanca South Jakarta 156 Under 2020
Construction
Alila - SCBD lot 11 5-star Luxury SCBD CBD 250 Under 2018
Construction
Park Hyatt Hotel 5-star Luxury Jl. Kebon Sirih Central Jakarta 150 Under 2018
Construction
InterContinental Jakarta 5-star Luxury Pondok Indah South Jakarta 300 Under 2018
Pondok Indah Hotel & Construction
Residences
Waldorf Astoria 5-star Luxury Jl. MH Thamrin CBD 181 Under 2020
Construction
Rosewood Jakarta 5-star Luxury Jl. Prof. Dr. CBD 200 Design 2020
Satrio
12,000
80%
8,000
60%
4,000
0 40%
2018E
2019E
2020E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
20%
Feb
Apr
Aug
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mar
Jan
May
Jun
Jul
Sept
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
USD100
USD80
USD60
USD40
USD20
USD0
Feb
Apr
Aug
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mar
Jan
May
Jun
Jul
Sept
Source: STR
BALI | HOTEL
Q2 2018
20 September 2018
Forecast at a glance 0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
2020E
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Demand
Several events planned to take place in
Bali should complement the number of
inbound leisure tourists, including the 3-Star 4-Star 5-Star
IMF-WB Annual Meeting in October,
FIABCI Meeting in December and Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Global Business Summit 2018.
Cumulative Hotel Projects
Supply
Bali plans 1,521 additional rooms 250
through the end of 2018, consisting of
684 4-star hotel rooms and 837 5-star 200
rooms. From 2019-2020, 919 more new
rooms should be available in six hotel 150
projects. By the end of 2020, there
should be a total of 60,604 hotel rooms 100
in Bali.
50
Occupancy 0
2018E
2019E
2020E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Radisson BLU Bali Uluwatu 4-star Upper Upscale Jl. Pemutih Uluwatu 240 January
2018
The Element Ubud 4-star Upscale Jl. Andong Ubud 152 March 2018
Fairfield Hotel 4-star Upper Midscale Jl. Sri Rama Legian 163 May 2018
Artotel Haniman Ubud 4-star Undefined Jl. Jatayu Ubud 22 June 2018
Marriott's Bali Nusa Dua 5-star Upper Upscale Nusa Dua Nusa 79 January
Gardens Dua 2018
Como UMA Canggu 5-star Luxury Mejan Canggu 119 February
2018
Renaissance Bali Resort & 5-star Upper Upscale Pantai Uluwatu 207 March 2018
Spa Uluwatu Balangan
NEW PIPELINE
YELLO Hotel Kuta 3-star Undefined Pantai Kuta Kuta 138 Under 2020
Beach Construction
Apr
Aug
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
May
Jun
Jul
Mar
Sept
Feb
Apr
Aug
Oct
Jan
Mar
May
Nov
Dec
Jun
Jul
Sept
Regarding this important IMF-WB Annual Meeting, the
government is preparing to use five airports to welcome
delegations. These include Blimbingsari Airport in
2015 2016 2017 2018
Banyuwangi, Lombok International Airport in Lombok,
Juanda International Airport in Surabaya, Adi Sumarmo
International Airport in Solo, and Sultan Hasanuddin Source: STR
International Airport in Makassa. These airports will
serve as alternative airports if Ngurah Rai International The month of January still felt the impact of Mount
Airport is over capacity or closed. Agung, but the AOR rebounded in February and
continued increasing through May, reaching 68.3%.
Number of Foreign Tourist Arrivals at Ngurah
Rai International Airport by Month Starting in June, we project the market situation to rise in
anticipation of local tourists during the Eid al-Fitr in June
700,000 and foreign tourists for summer holidays.
600,000
Average Daily Rate (ADR)
500,000
USD140
400,000
USD120
300,000
USD100
200,000
USD80
100,000
USD60
0
USD40
Feb
Apr
Aug
Oct
June
July
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
Sept
USD20
2013 2014 2015 USD0
Feb
Apr
Aug
Oct
Jan
May
Nov
Dec
Jun
Mar
Jul
Sept
Chinese, Australian and Indian visitors are still the three Source: STR
leading markets for Bali, with the Indian market growing
since 2012. Based on statistics from the Bali Tourism Bali’s ADR will likely achieve its peak during the island’s
Province, from January to May 2018, a total of 158,957 high season in July and August, as depicted in the
Indian tourists arrived in Bali, which is a 62% increase Monthly ADR chart.
from the same period in 2017. The number of tourists
Accelerating success.
Colliers Quarterly
SURABAYA | OFFICE
H1 2018
20 September 2018
Supply
Total office supply in Surabaya should
exceed 400,000 sq m by the end of
2018, which is an increase of 19.3%
YOY. Between 2019 and 2020, total
office space is planned to increase to
550,000 sq m.
Annual Supply
Lease 120,000
100,000
Supply
80,000
Cumulative Office Supply
60,000
700,000
40,000
600,000
20,000
500,000
0
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
400,000
300,000
In Operation Under Construction In Planning
200,000
Central Surabaya
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
South Surabaya
New office supply in Surabaya is scheduled to be
substantial between 2018 and 2021, with at least 11 new
buildings bringing approximately 330,000 sq m of office West Surabaya
spaces. During the first half of 2018, eight office
buildings continue to be under construction, with four of East Surabaya
these scheduled for completion in 2018. This will likely
bring about 65,000 sq m of new office supply online.
North Surabaya
Future developments that are already under construction
this year include Satoria, Pelindo Place and an office 0 100,000 200,000 300,000
building within the Capital Square Complex. We expect
these three establishments to be completed in 2020. Existing Supply 2017 Future Supply 2018E - 2021E
Pelindo Place, located near Tanjung Perak Harbour, is
planned to become the first commercial office building in Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
North Surabaya.
Future office supply in Surabaya is planned mainly in
We expect the growth of office supply to continue at West Surabaya, particularly in the HR Muhammad-
least through 2021, however, three buildings that are Darmo area, which is in line with the Surabaya
scheduled to be completed in 2021 are still in the government’s spatial planning policy (RTRW) 2014-2034
planning stages. that designates the area for trade and residential use.
2018
Praxis Office Panglima Sudirman Intiland Development 12,000 For Lease & Sale
2019
Pakuwon Tower Basuki Rahmat Pakuwon Jati 39,740 For Lease & Sale
2020
2021
One Galaxy Dharmahusada Puri Galaxy (Sinar Galaxy Group) 31,450 For Lease
Grand Sungkono Lagoon Abdul Wahab Siamin PP Property 38,250 For Lease
Ciputra World Surabaya Office Tower Mayjend Sungkono Ciputra Group 37,400 For Sale
Cumulative Office Supply by Marketing Scheme institutional investors continue to be the main targets of
strata office buildings in Surabaya.
500,000
Performance
400,000
Occupancy
300,000 Occupancy Rates
200,000 100%
100,000 90%
0
80%
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
70%
For Lease For Sale
60%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia – Research
50%
Since 2016, strata-title offices regained popularity in
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018YTD
2018E
2018YTD
2018E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
companies targeting Surabaya for business expansion.
Nevertheless, such companies only require relatively
small office spaces (some needing below 100 sq m).
Typically, these companies are commonly new or start-
up businesses that require some time before firming up
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
their operations with a wider and permanent operation in
Surabaya. Having said that, we think that there is a great Starting in early 2017, we witnessed average rental rates
opportunity for flexible workspace operators that provide declining, which continued in H1 2018. A further
a more flexible scale of office spaces in Surabaya. downward trend will likely to occur in the remainder of
Similar to what we are seeing in Jakarta, these flexible 2018. Two office buildings located in Central Surabaya
workspace operators provide more options in the market. announced they were lowering their rents by about 15%
In line with this situation, we have identified that in the HOH, despite the fact that there were not many vacant
past year some flexible workspace operators have spaces in these buildings. With this adjustment, the
started to emerge in Surabaya, such as Sub CO, Koridor overall average rental rate in Surabaya declined 2.1%
and Revio. YOY to register at IDR131,561/sq m/month. The average
asking rental rates in Surabaya were 55% lower than in
Occupancy Rates Based on Regions
Jakarta.
100%
The currently sluggish market coupled with a large
90% number of additional office buildings pushed landlords of
newer office buildings to refer to the market price as
80% basis, in order to maintain their competitiveness.
Average asking rental tariffs for new office buildings is
70% currently ranging from IDR135,000 to IDR150,000/sq
60%
m/month.
50%
2018YTD
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
IDR250,000 IDR100,000
IDR200,000 IDR80,000
IDR60,000
IDR150,000
IDR40,000
IDR100,000
IDR20,000
IDR50,000
IDR0
Central South West East
IDR0
Surabaya Surabaya Surabaya Surabaya
Central South West East
Surabaya Surabaya Surabaya Surabaya
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Service Charges
Average Service Charges, per sq m Strata-title
IDR80,000 Average Asking Prices
IDR70,000
IDR35,000,000
IDR60,000
IDR30,000,000
IDR50,000
IDR25,000,000
IDR40,000
IDR20,000,000
IDR30,000
IDR15,000,000
IDR20,000
IDR10,000,000
IDR10,000
IDR5,000,000
IDR0
IDR0
2018YTD
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2018YTD
2018E
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
SURABAYA | APARTMENT
H1 2018
20 September 2018
Ferry Salanto
Surabaya
Senior Associate Director |
Apartment for
More stock in the market has led to a buyer’s market,
which will likely cap property price appreciation.
Demand has improved somewhat but remained
Strata-title
patchy. We believe market sentiment could remain
soft in 2018, as the market continues to digest a Supply
large quantity of unsold inventory. We expect the
Following the completion of three projects in Surabaya
strongest demand to be in small units with relatively
that brought a total of 4,379 units online, there are now
affordable pricing. This year, the bulk of new
34,998 apartment units in stock, reflecting a 14.3%
launches from developers will likely come from mid-
increase HOH and 21.2% YOY. These three newly
low class apartments priced below IDR1.5 billion per
completed projects are predominantly in the middle-low
unit. This typical unit type remains the most saleable
class. Overall, the middle-low segment still dominates
product in this subdued apartment market.
the apartment market in Surabaya, accounting for 53%
of stock. We expect this domination to continue in the
Forecast at a glance future.
Demand For the past three years, West Surabaya continues to be
Market sentiment in Surabaya is yet to
a popular location for apartment development, as shown
recover, particularly because of a large
by numerous units launching in the region, especially
number of available units. By the end of
2018, the take-up rate may edge up within the areas surrounding Jl. Darmo, Jl. Mayjen
modestly to 81-82%. A brisker outlook Sungkono and Jl. HR. Muhammad, and also within
for 2019 and 2020 may allow the take- upscale housing compounds such as Graha Family,
up rate to reach 84% and 85%, Citra Indah and Pakuwon Indah. With massive
respectively. commercial developments and the upcoming West Outer
Ring Road providing better access to industrial areas in
Supply Gresik, Tuban and Mojokerto, there will likely be a wider
The total number of strata-title target market, from employees to expatriates.
apartments will reach 36,523 units by
Furthermore, in contrast with Jakarta, which is very
2021. From now to 2020, supply is
much on the radar of overseas developers, most
scheduled to grow by 9,251 units per
annum. About 46% of all new units are developers in Surabaya are local players, such as
scheduled in the mid-low segment. Pakuwon, Intiland, Ciputra, Gunawangsa Group, Puncak
Group and PT Pembangunan Property (PT.PP Property,
Rent Tbk).
In this competitive rental market, we see
no room for rents to increase,
particularly for local operators. We
expect the average rent to increase by
1-2% per annum in 2019-2021.
Price
Asking prices should post modest
growth over the next two years,
increasing by 5-6%, as buyers may still
need some convincing for them to
overcome their inertness.
APARTMENT PROJECTS COMPLETED DURING H1 2018
Puncak Dharmahusada (2 towers) Jl. Ir. Soekarno East Surabaya Puncak Group 2,886
Jl. Panglima Sudirman Central Surabaya Intiland 293
Praxis
Gunawangsa Tidar (2 towers) Jl. Raya Tidar Central Surabaya Gunawangsa Group 1,200
Mid-low Mid-up
53% 41%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Mid-low
Overall, the supply of apartment units in Surabaya still
48%
continues to grow. Despite being pressured by low sales
activity, developers still have positive expectations for
the market, which translates into a number of projects
being introduced and launched.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
EXPECTED
ASKING
APARTMENT LOCATION REGION #UNITS COMPLETION
PRICE/SQ M*
TIME
The Trans Icon Apartment Jl. Frontage Ahmad Yani South Surabaya 1,100 2021 IDR23,000,000
Vertu Apartment Jl. Mayjen Sungkono West Surabaya 184 2021 IDR32,000,000
Westown View Jl. Raya Wiyung West Surabaya 936 2021 IDR17,500,000
Darmo Hill Residence Jl. Pakis Argosari West Surabaya 341 2021 IDR25,000,000
(Rosewood Tower)
Tierra Apartment (Star Tower) Jl. Darmo Harapan West Surabaya 638 2021 IDR16,000,000
H1 H2 H1
HOH YOY
2017 2017 2018 IDR10,000,000
Existing
97.4% 97.9% 94.7% -3.2% -2.7%
projects
IDR5,000,000
Under-
construction 67.4% 68.6% 67.2% -1.5% -0.2%
projects IDR0
H1 2013
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016
H2 2016
H1 2017
H2 2017
H1 2018
Total 81.3% 82.3% 80.9% -1.4% -0.4%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
20% IDR300,000
0% IDR250,000
H1 2013
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016
H2 2016
H1 2017
H2 2017
H1 2018
IDR200,000
IDR150,000
H1 2018
H1 2013
H2 2013
H1 2014
H2 2014
H1 2015
H2 2015
H1 2016
H2 2016
H1 2017
H2 2017
clear marketing strategy to draw in tenants. Also, short-
term tenants that mostly come from individual business
travellers and family holidays during the weekend
continue to help lift overall occupancy rate.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Rental Rate
Overall, the serviced apartment market in Surabaya
experienced a slight rental increase of 0.7% HOH and
9.2% YOY to IDR259,700/sq m/month. As demand is still
slow and the fact that apartments for lease are
competing head-to-head against individually owned
strata-title apartments, rental rates should ebb.
SURABAYA | RETAIL
H1 2018
20 September 2018
2020E
2021E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018YTD
2018E
2019E
shopping malls.
Forecast at a glance
Demand Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Apart from F&B, the health and beauty
industries will likely become more active Surabaya is anticipating a limited quantity of new retail
retailers looking for retail space in supply through the end of 2018; probably only one new
Surabaya. shopping centre will be ready for operation this year. As
of H1 2018, the lack of new shopping centres in
Supply Surabaya for the last six months has maintained the total
The addition of new retail space in retail supply at 1.1 million sq m.
Surabaya is planned to reach around
140,000 sq m in 2018-2020, Going ahead, we expect at least five shopping centres to
representing 12.8% of current stock. be completed between 2019 and 2021. Four of these are
During that period, supply should grow currently under construction and will likely open in 2019
by 4.3% per annum. or 2020. An increasing number of shopping centres are
part of an integrated development with residential and
Occupancy retail functions complementing each other, i.e. the retail
Our three-year occupancy projection is adding more value to the residences, whilst the
relatively stable at 81%, given that the
residential provides a captive market for the shopping
quantity of supply coming online is
moderate. centres.
Rents
We forecast the average rents of
shopping centres in Surabaya to
increase by 5% from H1 to H2 2018 and
should further climb by 3.6% from early
2019 to the end of 2020.
Annual Retail Supply in Surabaya Distribution of Existing and Future Retail
Spaces in Surabaya
140,000
120,000
Central Surabaya
100,000
80,000
South Surabaya
60,000
40,000 West Surabaya
20,000
0 North Surabaya
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
East Surabaya
In Operation Under Construction In Planning
0 200,000 400,000
Cumulative Supply in 2018YTD Supply 2018E - 2020E
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2018
The Central Central Surabaya Gunawangsa 10,000 For Lease Under Construction
2019
One Galaxy Mall East Surabaya Sinar Galaxy Group 40,000 For Lease Under Construction
2020
Ciputra World Surabaya Mall 2 South Surabaya Ciputra Group 40,000 For Lease Under Construction
Lagoon Avenue Dharmahusada East Surabaya PP Properti 12,545 For Lease Under Construction
East Coast Center 2 East Surabaya Pakuwon 36,920 For Lease Under Construction
2021
Grand Sungkono Lagoon Shopping South Surabaya PP Properti 15,000 For Lease In Planning
Mall
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018YTD
2018E
2019E
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018YTD
IDR500,000 IDR140,000
IDR120,000
IDR400,000
IDR100,000
IDR300,000 IDR80,000
IDR200,000 IDR60,000
IDR40,000
IDR100,000
IDR20,000
IDR0 IDR0
2018YTD
2018E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018YTD
2018E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Compared to the previous semester, average rent was In the last six months, most of the shopping centres did
stagnant at IDR480,542/sq m/month, as landlords not change their service charges; only a few adjusted the
generally focus on maintaining or even increasing their tariff higher by 1-5%, bringing the average cost to
occupancy level. Even so, some malls with retail location IDR124,614/sq m/month.
in demand are confident in introducing a 15% rental
Range of Service Charges in Different Regions
increase for tenants whose lease contracts are expiring.
Because of this, we expect to see the average rent IDR160,000
adjusting ub by 5% YOY at the end of 2018.
IDR120,000
Ciputra World Surabaya, Grand City, Galaxy Mall,
Tunjungan Plaza and Pakuwon Mall are still the most
IDR80,000
expensive retail locations in Surabaya, as they are
categorised as upper-class shopping centres with asking
IDR40,000
rents starting from IDR500,000 up to IDR850,000/sq
m/month.
IDR0
North Surabaya
Central Surabaya
West Surabaya
East Surabaya
South Surabaya
Average Rental Rates in Different Regions
IDR1,000,000
IDR800,000
IDR600,000
IDR400,000
IDR200,000 Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
IDR0
North Surabaya
Central Surabaya
West Surabaya
South Surabaya
East Surabaya
SURABAYA | HOTEL
H1 2018
20 September 2018
Supply
Hotel In H1 2018, there were three new hotels that began
operation, comprising of 426 rooms in 3-star hotels (with
Ferry Salanto Senior Associate Director | two hotel projects providing 177 rooms) and one 4-star
Jakarta hotel project with 249 rooms.
The eruption of Mount Agung, in Bali, led to a spill- Cumulative Hotel Rooms
over of hotel guests to Surabaya in early 2018. Some
hoteliers revealed that several MICE activities that 8,000
were previously planned to be held in Bali were 7,000
partially shifted to Surabaya. Meanwhile, the month 6,000
of Ramadan, followed by Eid al-Fitr, making a long
5,000
holiday from mid-May to mid-June, changed the
timing for business travel mainly facilitated by the 4,000
government. 3,000
2,000
Forecast at a glance 1,000
Demand 0
H1 2018
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2020E
2018E
2019E
The hotel industry will continue to be
propelled by MICE activities, ultimately
from government and corporate sources.
3-Star 4-Star 5-Star
Supply
Through 2020 in Surabaya, 2,904 Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
additional rooms will come online,
consisting of 1,133 3-star hotel rooms, Cumulative Hotel Projects
1,167 4-star hotel rooms and 604 5-star
hotel rooms. 60
Occupancy 50
The year-to-date occupancy (up to May
40
2018) was recorded at 55.8%, which is a
4% increase compared with the same 30
period last year. The competition
amongst hotels will likely remain intense 20
in Surabaya. Thus, we predict
occupancy over the next two years to 10
slightly drop to around 55.5%.
0
H1 2018
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
2020E
Room Rate
The monthly ADR of hotels in Surabaya
has been stable over the last three
years. We expect the ADR to hover
around USD46 over the next two years. 3-Star 4-Star 5-Star
HOTEL NAME STARRED STR CHAIN LOCATION REGION NO. OF OPENING TIME
RATING SCALE RATE ROOMS
Great Hotel 3-star Undefined Jl. Diponegoro South Surabaya 90 March 2018
Batiqa Hotel 3-star Undefined Jl. Darmokali South Surabaya 87 May 2018
Novotel Samator 4-star Upscale Jl. Kedung Baruk East Surabaya 249 February 2018
Surabaya Timur Hotel
NEW PIPELINE
One Galaxy Hotel 3-star Undefined MERR II C East Surabaya 110 Under 2018
Construction
Continent My Tower – 3-star Undefined Rungkut East Surabaya 134 Under 2018
Rungkut Construction
Palm Park Hotel 3-star Undefined Jl. Kapas Central 101 Under 2018
Surabaya Krampung Surabaya Construction
Life Hotel 3-star Undefined Jl. Sumatera East Surabaya 100 Under 2019
Construction
Yello Rungkut 3-star Undefined Rungkut East Surabaya 168 In Planning 2020
Arum Hotel 3-star Undefined Jl. Gunung East Surabaya 120 In Planning 2020
Anyar
Grand Dafam Kayun 4-star Midscale Kayon Central 169 Under 2018
Surabaya Construction
Harris HR Muhammad 4-star Upper Midscale Jl. HR West Surabaya 168 Under 2019
Muhammad Construction
Four Points by Sheraton 4-star Upscale Jl. Puncak West Surabaya 316 Under 2019
Surabaya, Pakuwon Indah Lontar Construction
Indah
The Westin Surabaya 5-star Upper Upscale Jl. Puncak West Surabaya 204 In Planning 2019
Indah Lontar
AKR Signature Gallery - 5-star Upper Upscale Jl. Gubeng East Surabaya 200 Under 2020
Hilton Hotel Construction
The Trans Luxury Hotel 5-star Undefined Jl. Ahmad Yani South 200 In Planning 2020
Surabaya
Supply growth from 2018 onward has declined, for hotel development, as there is already oversupply in
compared with that in 2015-2017. This is in part due to Surabaya.
the downturn in the overall hotel performance in
Surabaya, which resulted in the limited financial support The projected hotel supply in 2018 comes from delayed
projects that were planned to be operational in 2016-
USD40
Performance
USD30
Average Occupancy Rate (AOR)
USD20
80%
70% USD10
Apr
Aug
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
Jun
May
Jul
Sept
50%
40% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
30%
20% Source: STR
10% The ADR figures for the first half this year are likely to be
0% similar to the numbers recorded in 2016 and 2017. The
market remains price-sensitive, so that hoteliers would
Nov
Oct
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
Jul
Jan
Jun
Aug
Feb
Sept
HOTEL APARTMENT
Room Type 1 BR with different size depending on hotel rate 1BR, 2BR or 3BR ranging from 21 to 57 sq m
Kitchen No Yes