1er Parcial EI2018

UNIVERSIDAD RAFAEL LANDIVAR
FACULTAD DE INGENIERIA
ESTADISTICA INFERENCIA
NOMBRE
CARNE
GUARDE ESTE ARCHIVO EN SU COMPUTADORA CON LAS SIGUIENTE NOMENCLATURA

1EP(SEGUIDO DE SU NUMERO DE CARNÉ)
NOTA
CASO No. 1 70
CASO No. 2 40
TOTAL 110
CASO No. 1
Ubicación de Súper Mercado
Usted es el ingeniero de producción de la empresa “El Torreón” y junto con el Gerente General GG, el G
deben decidir donde se ubicar la tienda No. 21 de la cadena de supermercados.
La junta directiva también está considerando cerrar una de las tiendas y cambiar al personal a una nue
será recomendar si se abre una nueva plaza o se sustituye por una nueva ubicación.
Los datos históricos con los que se cuentan son los siguientes:
a Determine cual será su variable dependiente (reorganic

V. Dependiente variables independientes
Ingresos Promedio en un Trafico Promedio día
No. radio de 2 Millas (IP) (TD)
1 $ 28.99 61655
2 $ 14.73 35236
3 $ 8.11 35403
4 $ 15.32 52832
5 $ 11.44 40809
6 $ 11.73 40820
7 $ 10.59 49147
8 $ 10.71 24953
9 $ 23.59 40828
10 $ 15.70 39195
11 $ 9.02 34574
12 $ 10.07 26639
13 $ 17.37 55083
14 $ 7.53 37892
15 $ 6.95 24019
16 $ 9.86 27791
17 $ 21.59 53438
18 $ 22.66 54835
19 $ 12.66 32916
20 $ 11.62 29139
GG 21
GV 22
c Complete el cuadro de Análisis Mínimo

Mínimo
Máximo
Media
R2
R
chequea pearson?
m A
Coeficientes
d Cual de las tres variables describe mejor el comportamiento de
justifique
Realice un análisis Regresión Múltiple con el 95% de Nivel de confianza y escrib

e variable dependiente
Ecuación de Pronostico
deje en una hoja nueva el analísis de regresión
f Realice el Pronostico para las 20 tiendas con la Ecuación de su pronostico
Existen tres ofertas para comprar/alquilar terrenos y parece que cada gere
g
particular:
Esenario
apoya un terreno cercano a la tienda No.3, ya que ofrece el
doble de área por el mismo precio de la renta actual
GF
apoya un terreno en el mismo sector de la tienda No.10 con la
diferencia que el corredor de bienes raíces le asegura que la
población alrededor de la propiedad es de 25,000 y
GG
apoya a un terreno ubicado sobre el mismo boulevard que la

tienda No.15 y la esquina de un nuevo proyecto dirigido a
personas con poder adquisitivo como el de la tienda No. 13
GV
Su voto es el decisivo, ¿que terreno apoyaría?

h Pregunta bono: ¿existen valores atípico
a su juicio, ¿crearía una tienda nueva o la sustituiria por
Torreón” y junto con el Gerente General GG, el Gerente Financiero GF y el Gerente de Ventas GV
adena de supermercados.
a de las tiendas y cambiar al personal a una nueva ubicación por lo que parte de sus conclusiones
uye por una nueva ubicación.
uientes:
su variable dependiente (reorganice si es necesario)

variables independientes f b
Población en un radio de 2Millas
Ventas/año (VA) PRONOSTICO
(Po)
17880 $ 1,121.00
13742 $ 766.00
19741 $ 595.00
23246 $ 899.00
24485 $ 915.00
20410 $ 782.00
28997 $ 833.00
9981 $ 571.00
8982 $ 692.00
18814 $ 1,005.00
16941 $ 589.00
13319 $ 671.00
21482 $ 903.00
26524 $ 703.00
14412 $ 556.00
13896 $ 657.00
22444 $ 1,209.00
18096 $ 997.00
16458 $ 844.00
16609 $ 883.00
mplete el cuadro de Análisis Mínimo

B C
escribe mejor el comportamiento de la variable dependiente
n el 95% de Nivel de confianza y escriba la ecuación que pronostique la
on la Ecuación de su pronostico
ar terrenos y parece que cada gerente simpatiza con una oferta en
comentario Pronostico
decisivo, ¿que terreno apoyaría?

unta bono: ¿existen valores atípicos?
una tienda nueva o la sustituiria por alguna existente?
70
VALOR
5
Realice las graficas de correlación de las tres variables independientes
15 5
GRAFICA No. 1. GRAF

incluir nombre, dimencional y incluir nom
ajustar las escalas de los ejes ajustar las e
5
5
10
15
10
ariables independientes
GRAFICA No. 2. GRAFICA N

incluir nombre, dimencional y incluir nombre, di
ajustar las escalas de los ejes ajustar las escalas
5
GRAFICA No. 3.
luir nombre, dimencional y
star las escalas de los ejes
CASO No.2
Con los datos del país que se indica realice:
Las graficas de: (10 puntos)
• % de crecimiento del año 1,995 al 2,009
• Tendencia Exponencial
• Tendencia Lineal
• Tendencia Logarítmica
• Dos Tendencias Polinómicas G (del grado a su elección)
• Tendencia Potencial
Pronostique el año 2.010 (CUADRO PRONOSTICO LLENO 20 puntos)
Indique que Línea de tendencia elije para realizar su pronostico (10 puntos)
A continuación, compare su pronostico con el dato real
¿qué porcentaje de acierto o margen de error tuvo? (10 puntos)
Country Name - all -
Indicator Name
Data Crecimiento de la población (% anual) Total Result
Sum - 1995 406.1118976963 406.1118976963
Sum - 1996 401.772098584 401.772098584
Sum - 1997 401.8978431369 401.8978431369
Sum - 1998 384.2707049835 384.2707049835
Sum - 1999 375.001182704 375.001182704
Sum - 2000 373.4826094683 373.4826094683
Sum - 2001 377.1715521336 377.1715521336
Sum - 2002 380.3949289367 380.3949289367
Sum - 2003 379.8614779841 379.8614779841
Sum - 2004 388.6954322098 388.6954322098
Sum - 2005 394.4216958836 394.4216958836
Sum - 2006 401.2216044154 401.2216044154
Sum - 2007 399.5380659134 399.5380659134
Sum - 2008 400.2009170776 400.2009170776
Sum - 2009 389.9607851484 389.9607851484
CUADRO PRONOSTICO
% de Crecimiento
1 1995
2 1996
3 1997
4 1998
5 1999
6 2000
7 2001
8 2002
9 2003
10 2004
11 2005
12 2006
13 2007
14 2008
15 2009
16 2010
ELIJO LA LINEA DE TENDENCIA:
PRONOSTICO
% DE VARIACIÓN -100.00%
Country Name Guatemala
Indicator Name
Crecimiento de laTotal Result
2.1710395705 2.1710395705
NOTA 40
GRAFICAS 10
CUADRO LLENO 10
LINEA DE TENDENCIA ELEGIDA 10
CERTEZA EN EL PRONOSTICO 10
elección)
LLENO 20 puntos)
su pronostico (10 puntos)
o real
o? (10 puntos)
% de Crecimiento
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
R2 = R2 = R2 =
R= R= R=
Exponencial Lineal Logarítmica
Pronostico Variación Pronostico Variación Pronostico
-100.00%
iento f(x) = NaN exp( NaN x )
R² = NaN % de Crecimiento
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
2004 2006 2008 2010 0.00

0 2 4 6
R2 = R2 = R2 =
R= R= R=
Logarítmica Polinómica G2 Polinómica G3 Potencial
Variación Pronostico Variación Pronostico Variación Pronostico
Nx)
ecimiento Exponencial 12.00
% de Creci
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
f(x) =
0.00
4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1994 R² =1996
0
Potencial
Variación
12.00
% de Crecimiento Lineal
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
f(x) =
0.00
1994 R² =1996
0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
f(x) = NaN ln(x)
Lineal R² = NaN % de Crecimiento
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
2006 2008 2010 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Logarítmica % de Crecimiento
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
f(x) =
0.00
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 0 R² = 20 4
% de Crecimiento
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
f(x) =
0.00
0 R² = 20 4
% de Crecimiento Polinómica G2
f(x) =
R² = 20 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
ecimiento Polinómica G3
f(x) =
R² = 20 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
f(x) = NaN x^NaN
mica G2 R² = NaN % de Crecimiento
12.00
Pote
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
14 16 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
mica G3
14 16
Potencial
2004 2006 2008 2010

Valores críticos del coeficiente
de correlación r de Pearson
n � = .05 � = .01
4 0.95 0.99
5 0.878 0.959
6 0.811 0.917
7 0.754 0.875
1.2
8 0.707 0.834
9 0.666 0.798
1
10 0.632 0.765
11 0.602 0.732
12 0.576 0.708 0.8
13 0.553 0.684
14 0.532 0.661 0.6
15 0.514 0.641
16 0.497 0.623 0.4
17 0.482 0.606
18 0.468 0.59 0.2
19 0.456 0.575
20 0.444 0.561 0
0.396 0.505 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
25
30 0.361 0.463
35 0.335 0.43
40 0.312 0.401
45 0.294 0.378
50 0.279 0.361
60 0.254 0.33
70 0.236 0.305
80 0.22 0.286
90 0.207 0.269
100 0.196 0.256
NOTA: Para someter a prueba H0: � = 0

contra H1: � ≠ 0, rechace H0 si el valor
absoluto de r es mayor que el valor crítico
en la tabla.
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Resumen
Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.9145264565
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.8363586396
R^2 ajustado 0.8056758845
Error típico 81.6004781696
Observaciones 20
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 3 544508.741400008
Residuos 16 106538.208599992
Total 19 651046.95
Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción 60.0631662565 91.753333944
Trafico promedio día -0.0170128282 0.0063424812
Población en un radio de 2Millas 0.0401686578 0.0091273094
Ingresos promedio en un radio de 2 Millas 49.3612817677 10.076558033
Análisis de los residuales
Observación Pronóstico Ventas/año Residuos

1 1160.3857659203 -39.3857659203
2 739.7378896716 26.2621103284
3 651.2449240662 -56.2449240662
4 851.4143288217 47.5856711783
5 913.9105881246 1.0894118754
6 764.4496607451 17.5503392549
7 911.3908825259 -78.3908825259
8 564.9273207587 6.0726792413
9 890.740299798 -198.740299798
10 924.0987011513 80.9012988487
11 597.3508316546 -8.3508316546
12 638.6860905755 32.3139094245
13 843.0073163075 59.9926836925
14 852.635734607 -149.635734607
15 573.4036506848 -17.4036506848
16 631.8987588905 25.1012411095
17 1118.1377216602 90.8622783398
18 972.5340480553 24.4659519447
19 786.0785111053 57.9214888947
20 804.9669748758 78.0330251242
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
181502.913800003 27.25826404 1.5868622792E-06
6658.6380374995
Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

0.6546156273 0.522015091 -134.4452125927 254.5715451 -134.445213 254.5715451
-2.6823616392 0.01635178 -0.0304582876 -0.00356737 -0.03045829 -0.00356737
4.4009308926 0.000446378 0.0208196263 0.059517689 0.020819626 0.059517689
4.8986252653 0.00016065 27.9999329956 70.72263054 27.999933 70.72263054
Resultados de datos de probabilidad
Percentil Ventas/año
2.5 556
7.5 571
12.5 589
17.5 595
22.5 657
27.5 671
32.5 692
37.5 703
42.5 766
47.5 782
52.5 833
57.5 844
62.5 883
67.5 899
72.5 903
77.5 915
82.5 997
87.5 1005
92.5 1121
97.5 1209
Trafico promedio día Curva de regresión ajustada Población en un ra
$1,500.00 $1,500.00
$1,000.00 $1,000.00
Ventas/año
Ventas/año
Ventas/año
$500.00 Pronóstico Ventas/año $500.00
$-
$-
-50000 0
20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
Pobl
Trafico promedio día
erior 95.0% Ingresos promedio en un radio de 2 Millas Curva de regresión ajustada

$1,500.00
$1,000.00
Ventas/año
Ventas/año
$500.00 Pronóstico Ventas/año
$-
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Ingresos promedio en un radio de 2 Millas
Población en un radio de 2Millas Curva de regresión ajustada
$1,500.00
$1,000.00
Ventas/año
Ventas/año
$500.00 Pronóstico Ventas/año
$-
-50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
Población en un radio de 2Millas
Gráfico de probabilidad normal

1500
1000
Ventas/año
500
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Data Source Indicadores del desarrollo mundial
Last Updated Date 8/28/2018
Country Name Country Code

Aruba ABW
Afganistán AFG
Angola AGO
Albania ALB
Andorra AND
El mundo árabe ARB
Emiratos Árabes Unidos ARE
Argentina ARG
Armenia ARM
Samoa Americana ASM
Antigua y Barbuda ATG
Australia AUS
Austria AUT
Azerbaiyán AZE
Burundi BDI
Bélgica BEL
Benin BEN
Burkina Faso BFA
Bangladesh BGD
Bulgaria BGR
Bahrein BHR
Bahamas BHS
Bosnia y Herzegovina BIH
Belarús BLR
Belice BLZ
Bermudas BMU
Bolivia BOL
Brasil BRA
Barbados BRB
Brunei Darussalam BRN
Bhután BTN
Botswana BWA
República Centroafricana CAF
Canadá CAN
Europa Central y del Báltico CEB
Suiza CHE
Islas del Canal CHI
Chile CHL
China CHN
Côte d'Ivoire CIV
Camerún CMR
Congo, República Democrática del COD
Congo, República del COG
Colombia COL
Comoras COM
Cabo Verde CPV
Costa Rica CRI
Estados pequeos del Caribe CSS
Cuba CUB
Curacao CUW
Islas Caimán CYM
Chipre CYP
República Checa CZE
Alemania DEU
Djibouti DJI
Dominica DMA
Dinamarca DNK
República Dominicana DOM
Argelia DZA
Asia oriental y el Pacífico (excluido altos ingresos) EAP
inicial del dividendo demográfico EAR
Asia oriental y el Pacífico EAS
Europa y Asia central (excluido altos ingresos) ECA
Europa y Asia central ECS
Ecuador ECU
Egipto, República Árabe de EGY
Zona del Euro EMU
Eritrea ERI
España ESP
Estonia EST
Etiopía ETH
Unión Europea EUU
Frágiles y situaciones de conflicto afectados FCS
Finlandia FIN
Fiji FJI
Francia FRA
Islas Feroe FRO
Micronesia (Estados Federados de) FSM
Gabón GAB
Reino Unido GBR
Georgia GEO
Ghana GHA
Gibraltar GIB
Guinea GIN
Gambia GMB
Guinea-Bissau GNB
Guinea Ecuatorial GNQ
Grecia GRC
Granada GRD
Groenlandia GRL
Guatemala GTM
Guam GUM
Guyana GUY
Ingreso alto HIC
Hong Kong, Región Administrativa Especial HKG
Honduras HND
Países pobres muy endeudados (PPME) HPC
Croacia HRV
Haití HTI
Hungría HUN
Sólo BIRF IBD
BIRF y la AIF IBT
total de la AIF IDA
mezcla de la AIF IDB
Indonesia IDN
Sólo AIF IDX
Isla de Man IMN
India IND
No clasificado INX
Irlanda IRL
Irán, República Islámica del IRN
Iraq IRQ
Islandia ISL
Israel ISR
Italia ITA
Jamaica JAM
Jordania JOR
Japón JPN
Kazajstán KAZ
Kenya KEN
Kirguistán KGZ
Camboya KHM
Kiribati KIR
Saint Kitts y Nevis KNA
Corea, República de KOR
Kuwait KWT
América Latina y el Caribe (excluido altos ingresos) LAC
República Democrática Popular Lao LAO
Líbano LBN
Liberia LBR
Libia LBY
Santa Lucía LCA
América Latina y el Caribe LCN
Países menos desarrollados: clasificación de las Naciones Unidas LDC
Países de ingreso bajo LIC
Liechtenstein LIE
Sri Lanka LKA
Países de ingreso mediano bajo LMC
Ingreso mediano y bajo LMY
Lesotho LSO
avanzada del dividendo demográfico LTE
Lituania LTU
Luxemburgo LUX
Letonia LVA
Región Administrativa Especial de Macao, China MAC
Isla de San Martín (parte francesa) MAF
Marruecos MAR
Mónaco MCO
República de Moldova MDA
Madagascar MDG
Maldivas MDV
Oriente Medio y Norte de África MEA
México MEX
Islas Marshall MHL
Ingreso mediano MIC
Ex República Yugoslava de Macedonia MKD
Malí MLI
Malta MLT
Myanmar MMR
Oriente Medio y Norte de África (excluido altos ingresos) MNA
Montenegro MNE
Mongolia MNG
Mariana MNP
Mozambique MOZ
Mauritania MRT
Mauricio MUS
Malawi MWI
Malasia MYS
América del Norte NAC
Namibia NAM
Nueva Caledonia NCL
Níger NER
Nigeria NGA
Nicaragua NIC
Países Bajos NLD
Noruega NOR
Nepal NPL
Nauru NRU
Nueva Zelandia NZL
Miembros OCDE OED
Omán OMN
Otros Estados pequeos OSS
Pakistán PAK
Panamá PAN
Perú PER
Filipinas PHL
Palau PLW
Papua Nueva Guinea PNG
Polonia POL
previa al dividendo demográfico PRE
Puerto Rico PRI
Corea, República Popular Democrática de PRK
Portugal PRT
Paraguay PRY
Ribera Occidental y Gaza PSE
Estados pequeos de las Islas del Pacfico PSS
posterior al dividendo demográfico PST
Polinesia Francesa PYF
Qatar QAT
Rumania ROU
Federación de Rusia RUS
Rwanda RWA
Asia meridional SAS
Arabia Saudita SAU
Sudán SDN
Senegal SEN
Singapur SGP
Islas Salomón SLB
Sierra Leona SLE
El Salvador SLV
San Marino SMR
Somalia SOM
Serbia SRB
África al sur del Sahara (excluido altos ingresos) SSA
Sudán del Sur SSD
África al sur del Sahara SSF
Pequeños Estados SST
Santo Tomé y Príncipe STP
Suriname SUR
República Eslovaca SVK
Eslovenia SVN
Suecia SWE
Swazilandia SWZ
Sint Maarten (Dutch part) SXM
Seychelles SYC
República Árabe Siria SYR
Islas Turcas y Caicos TCA
Chad TCD
Asia oriental y el Pacífico (BIRF y la AIF) TEA
Europa y Asia central (BIRF y la AIF) TEC
Togo TGO
Tailandia THA
Tayikistán TJK
Turkmenistán TKM
América Latina y el Caribe (BIRF y la AIF) TLA
Timor-Leste TLS
Oriente Medio y Norte de África (BIRF y la AIF) TMN
Tonga TON
Asia meridional (BIRF y la AIF) TSA
África al sur del Sahara (BIRF y la AIF) TSS
Trinidad y Tobago TTO
Túnez TUN
Turquía TUR
Tuvalu TUV
Tanzanía TZA
Uganda UGA
Ucrania UKR
Ingreso mediano alto UMC
Uruguay URY
Estados Unidos USA
Uzbekistán UZB
San Vicente y las Granadinas VCT
Venezuela VEN
Islas Vírgenes Británicas VGB
Islas Vírgenes (EE.UU.) VIR
Viet Nam VNM
Vanuatu VUT
Mundo WLD
Samoa WSM
Kosovo XKX
Yemen, Rep. del YEM
Sudáfrica ZAF
Zambia ZMB
Zimbabwe ZWE
Indicator Name Indicator Code 1960 1961 1962
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW 3.1480368358 2.2381439312 1.4096218651
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW 2.7608814667 2.7753284864
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW 1.8328676813 -1.0155277873 0.8204555487
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW 1.3065077847 -0.1600425009 0.3956944905
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW -0.0469028505 1.3327845988
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW -0.9062481751 -0.3329097499 0.2833536886
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW -0.2806987923 -0.1485936944 0.411628632
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW 0.4365408677 -0.0039067078 -0.4444060212
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW -0.2933783737 1.5781041212 3.3021609697
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW 4.0066270352 -0.3988958956 -0.4159291215
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW 1.2135026117 0.4627193747 -0.184520493
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW 1.2300278082 0.6440965779 0
Crecimiento de la población (% anual) SP.POP.GROW -0.074890503 1.3270151332
1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968
0.8324525578 0.5926490392 0.5734682476 0.6169908776 0.5873732012 0.5685297989
1.9925211444 2.0494231153 2.1053687508 2.12958837 2.1467271993 2.2093310804
1.9306928563 1.8702955313 1.7887994026 1.7017978498 1.6538992835 1.6817430041
2.953748762 2.8806864262 2.754021238 2.6345638795 2.6301903455 2.8425107105
6.5595217029 6.2415106943 5.9987997721 5.7508775659 5.5007059639 5.3098196992
2.7935277605 2.817244982 2.8429763523 2.87789531 2.9079206775 2.9119494161
11.0127214974 9.824817324 8.1966030027 6.5129835483 5.9286203345 7.3083941766
1.5575319402 1.5242206252 1.4895436658 1.4495353145 1.4205256238 1.4247922425
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1.1182225146 1.3064058493 1.5043077829 1.684716099 1.623602491 1.245736524
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2.6139381854 2.6302348901 2.6340021674 2.6430773114 2.6821961058 2.7590990133
0.8262342527 1.2532211445 1.6127527624 1.9739518232 2.1605315918 2.0802440044
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2.5892252439 2.5188207277 2.4456125727 2.3921182679 2.3726779809 2.394305596
2.4061865572 2.3240693863 2.2442007021 2.1673500921 2.1154726658 2.0865391736

1.0214809398 0.9043690342 0.9658444709 0.950254241 0.8253623981 0.9362780039
3.3021935631 3.3478779045 3.3970029051 3.4105940317 3.3888587893 3.319680178
7.9113762034 8.2180181683 8.662779082 8.8953543443 8.5889072885 7.7505872817
1.0515816828 1.1985228542 1.0373898376 0.9552226008 0.8566377661 0.9255887932
0.5692380177 0.5690834683 0.5742506003 0.5732461034 0.5745013496 0.5734680374
3.1623815012 3.0820009621 2.9858658198 2.9386336757 2.9341875416 2.9892057901
2.2967776039 2.3028255383 2.3055562775 2.3093009508 2.3187533616 2.335879642
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3.2509851257 3.4366334688 3.6279407343 3.7701109116 3.8368437176 3.8196400554
1.7575735255 1.8614309835 1.9684205258 2.0636508293 2.142678196 2.2009771941
2.6940339143 2.6485183219 2.5983195606 2.5375366871 2.4653133267 2.3812800524
1.6327328876 1.2778550556 0.8584636889 0.4909443726 0.3499386033 0.4919554864
2.2039809849 1.6662990545 0.7453818576 0.1352848574 0.8877258367 3.4066740164
2.6098844976 2.6388488565 2.6655881742 2.6916087998 2.720978334 2.7545674897

2.2678792185 2.3085326815 2.3492683856 2.390425997 2.4320372863 2.473740987
2.6098472722 2.638797408 2.6654742369 2.6915628542 2.7207641276 2.7544029019
1.7998247282 1.8132808986 1.8460289552 1.8525939124 1.8365992557 1.8151553006
3.0855582677 2.7470429148 2.3097252176 2.0179808703 1.8971052925 2.0640464238
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0.7707211763 0.4331765236 0.4227511422 0.8558648741 0.9704054267 1.0326455262
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2.6757761893 2.7616369558 2.8478129088 2.9276881923 2.9896124137 3.0265256159
2.3788791235 2.3310638852 2.0223229495 2.4097116265 1.5285319872 1.8201479592

3.3657760597 3.3870324848 3.4104259264 3.4299081871 3.4359520627 3.4264300224
0.2156335067 1.1067588874 2.1600629113 2.8431440654 3.3867778731 3.528268475
1.9532781834 2.0847616313 2.240148821 2.3607968206 2.3963900872 2.3240789744
2.7612272553 2.7713398808 2.754502077 2.5269307366 2.3835898458 2.20251601
1.0989697685 1.0506980893 1.040078878 1.0701913216 1.0610514196 1.0599114583
4.4787192647 3.8851472952 3.2617166932 2.7936214193 2.450744254 2.2866823515
2.933917657 2.9106277308 2.8860101508 2.8487266653 2.7845149305 2.6887138704
3.1958380884 3.1145054482 3.0356908082 2.9642781284 2.906472806 2.8644631899
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2.3739273133 2.3819104094 2.3920088107 2.3972478424 2.3902804227 2.3680245199
1.1291679185 1.2261640157 1.062390815 1.0378150969 1.0536943105 1.0427072628
3.0730630508 3.1278352672 3.1848873158 3.227976276 3.2453552645 3.2315603874
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3.4780442014 3.2408982387 2.985772827 2.7787404219 2.6535065637 2.6332706973
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3.1968018808 3.0871847513 2.9760800309 2.8785878612 2.8130431829 2.7863070762
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1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
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3.033383505 3.1872869095 3.3032391447 3.364129261 3.3565143726 3.3025249911
16.211873402 15.450883836 14.5301191153 13.0334608439 11.0713059421 9.0658625783
1.6339829816 1.5612984957 1.5046956399 1.4741892815 1.4802896285 1.5105173843
2.1051328677 1.98603744 1.8787112222 1.7850987075 1.7099188864 1.6473680751
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5.6459730907 6.2565035794 6.6209579314 6.4805451782 5.8025704076 4.8651519533
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2.242316218 2.2621919689 2.2711796387 2.2785562718 2.2805735912 2.2767507652
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0.0480985479 0.4501220803 0.769908011 1.0719553834 1.3101760244 1.4908758725
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6.2862913882 6.1604213732 6.09949671 5.7555705042 5.2029671446 4.5442229409
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2.8539902719 2.9576855199 3.0332573757 3.0477524389 2.9878035664 2.8830268437
1.8439168451 1.6514189645 1.4622577155 1.3100950617 1.2280247929 1.1895802843
2.0025109668 1.705861554 1.4502347101 1.2977903652 1.2827762682 1.3626770831
3.8004140395 2.8440967172 1.0617549669 1.0789565553 1.0719936118 1.0814320671
2.4460076448 2.4987930029 2.5460944133 2.604429104 2.6741020937 2.7458764969
2.0757773105 2.0594131157 2.0419593689 2.0630345421 2.1233077492 2.2041938603

0.8546834 0.6682896732 0.6838648604 0.6839190733 0.7075934207 0.6720795246
3.2153058544 3.1121678729 3.0088669523 2.9573344548 2.9375786185 2.9513452992
6.7352879992 5.5730771098 4.8325469451 5.1541834285 6.6556014232 8.6105438769
1.2482922062 1.2045877622 0.9442356786 0.8939840209 0.6313274296 0.6864643204
0.5739239763 0.703185038 0.702683474 0.70288765 0.7030532036 0.7096554795
3.0818809793 3.170450092 3.2385905081 3.3037473822 3.3640581234 3.4160129526
2.3571594591 2.3772186116 2.3922303276 2.402404617 2.406583702 2.4055798627
5.100056813 5.1155892189 5.1473719321 5.3022202904 5.5982823054 5.931669636
3.4444532404 3.5135276491 3.5627664589 3.5852035317 3.5760502498 3.5441735238
2.7492662706 2.5692144668 2.4355096218 2.3938000871 2.4685890098 2.6183760895
1.4602699159 1.3477233778 1.3857234686 1.2097007892 1.2623924798 1.2692342992
3.7463205514 3.6519023104 3.5722891763 3.5015531386 3.4459100758 3.4005181617
2.2430983372 2.2811593772 2.3184913451 2.3475939569 2.368417589 2.3833517832
2.2878519545 2.1974844571 2.1072612529 2.0018319271 1.8792251304 1.7482899637
0.8804800247 1.2338064106 1.5692049077 1.7775641395 1.7750526023 1.5616839761
6.7372815998 10.0245324594 11.8137199632 11.5378605637 9.4319843767 6.5892348434
2.7895359886 2.8227141179 2.8506890881 2.8712508687 2.8861321966 2.8934737698

2.5162720437 2.5191029015 2.5187802794 2.5870100375 2.7421260255 2.9286442102
2.7894558672 2.8225763405 2.8505605679 2.8708529406 2.885787155 2.8931434532
1.8040886043 1.7632138988 1.7445145961 1.7522922151 1.8335592431 1.9324102399
2.372766375 2.7202976564 2.958682377 2.9913847558 2.8020088774 2.4521745979
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0.9776213927 1.4759124858 1.2083280812 1.0888857022 1.0707826199 0.9892483091
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3.0461759763 3.083354943 3.1209956145 3.121190804 3.0854999886 3.033421334
2.3118176352 2.0235088902 2.096732303 0.5874016373 0.8587319264 0.9130888309

3.4086417274 3.3785555055 3.3554933928 3.3639553339 3.411133201 3.4758105547
3.1334966348 2.6374823978 2.3955881429 2.396269331 2.9477583073 3.4502509097
2.1870778987 2.0407532389 1.940646592 1.9013257119 1.9431285829 2.0448148742
1.9574982106 1.7726935959 1.6179209868 1.5914624886 1.5904190166 1.5397718829
1.0578968953 1.0896904152 1.0562195001 1.0256918339 1.0085377757 1.0354551249
2.2582554884 2.2158895093 2.171900422 2.2730164952 2.5436509916 2.9083921824
2.5730818701 2.4543111844 2.3443797662 2.2428193281 2.1536477822 2.074787827
2.8367260125 2.8120742045 2.7950081143 2.801217511 2.8342873622 2.883197305
2.7287467195 2.6936947961 2.660424873 2.616819006 2.5601709008 2.4986227594
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2.3571594591 2.3772186116 2.3922303276 2.402404617 2.406583702 2.4055798627
2.7894558672 2.8225763405 2.8505605679 2.8708529406 2.885787155 2.8931434532
1.4375842224 1.3909866578 1.3656521204 1.3711621938 1.4210074849 1.4951241838
2.2491206788 2.262068181 2.2778150738 2.3377166501 2.4519905767 2.5922089004
2.3362292723 2.2961563271 2.2602741452 2.2411217227 2.2440361881 2.258187238
0.7977548357 0.9334956936 0.8609111959 0.916970256 0.9337607278 1.1240283199
3.1982729526 3.1597764783 3.1297675018 3.1114733349 3.1090917218 3.116455623
2.7475431026 2.8470651959 2.9283273413 2.9839253132 3.0025944998 3.0008296613
0.6251479188 0.5674492308 0.5175559791 0.4776031792 0.4520116554 0.4363321192
1.8790145334 1.7519809259 1.6327471764 1.6114392928 1.6059134669 1.5651639388
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2.6812284739 2.7439270823 2.7787074806 2.784519781 2.7496700612 2.6888309417
1.0968723752 1.0715205615 1.03763348 1.0026474597 0.9655866731 0.9145719562
2.7849406204 2.7909796804 2.7894727874 2.7791829765 2.7553684591 2.7229962013
0.9302392662 0.6375205949 0.4542451267 0.6681434539 1.2119100505 1.9271955548
4.9276608191 1.7645356852 -3.1295954832 2.8828424493 0.2644292371 3.5270918189
2.2152707878 2.1894659308 2.167613974 2.1684361884 2.1950636617 2.2370591411
3.1283694974 3.1111429858 3.0530447716 2.9744693464 2.8388142909 2.6748654505
1.8750738937 1.7923161465 1.7547463006 1.7527920856 1.7659323509 1.7528354077
0.773192892 0.6603552243 0.5607974466 0.4947057158 0.4877473906 0.5136694106
2.2157479597 2.2391690315 2.1202207651 2.0761991448 2.1010600062 1.9920977495
2.5071394119 2.9452940898 3.3134827896 3.5779157218 3.7090088161 3.7508358858
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3.4856855072 3.4485087055 3.4163557721 3.3982881579 3.4006797273 3.410767679
3.2309547508 3.1060952367 3.0227138646 3.0488973757 3.2092067672 3.4418086143
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
0.780690671 1.2763477947 1.3857408543 1.0157080851 0.301918203 -0.6079433063
-1.4783449614 -2.3587648303 -2.8672733372 -2.8005482523 -2.216315406 -1.5567222659
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3.8962613131 4.2139526194 4.3842432237 4.4016534178 4.339443344 4.2083978153
3.2364515094 3.179229468 3.1252424357 3.0795327229 3.0379628128 2.9918043529
7.2621536528 5.9438947022 5.2017678777 5.0889481201 5.3582254376 5.6709811747
1.5445383003 1.5663988901 1.576631635 1.5702586544 1.5516193505 1.5297976342
1.5474769348 1.4379180597 1.3963549373 1.4408476864 1.5205238027 1.6742186886
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2.3511651512 2.4478337511 2.5195895843 2.5597836421 2.5778094227 2.5902484904
2.7247632887 2.693949362 2.6740568779 2.6740990543 2.6832177064 2.6915302135
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3.8783729632 3.113122583 2.6852191816 2.6810750309 2.9525877146 3.2953626199
2.2227988065 2.2398571305 2.2054402381 2.1213356054 2.0108187276 1.8758807461
1.0153417848 1.0084888156 0.9983501432 0.9848960273 0.9466978391 0.9826947752
0.6924018775 0.6774120126 0.6830140218 0.6783805695 0.6537614434 0.6793911635
2.3386423754 2.6310091622 2.8128705194 2.8625886747 2.8126354476 2.7787454944
0.6950795683 0.7247956403 0.8674637956 0.8814589666 0.8418552718 0.8506450139
2.1595763838 2.1406436849 2.1158313305 2.0844465387 2.0502227193 2.0135916604
2.3420779051 2.3241759122 2.2856265685 2.2220570215 2.1422373954 2.0594693998
0.3507011673 0.3002442478 0.2663473648 0.2648561222 0.2860403776 0.3167794168
3.1147038356 2.9755058788 2.8730243378 2.8308227005 2.8393352437 2.8367333184
2.7023458593 2.5065028524 2.4739575651 2.6516599384 2.9230073673 3.3206928468
3.6520847868 3.5469118664 3.4395935232 3.3341558208 3.2323701996 3.120881251
2.895448862 3.0238320358 3.025121461 2.8730535359 2.6320188351 2.3541691643
1.2405953871 1.2055552977 1.0028115148 0.961733829 0.9294467034 1.0048793951
0.5846924933 0.5437288669 0.516003436 0.4858313349 0.4658706299 0.4451816773
0.5470649101 0.5842916754 0.42878792 0.3591116524 0.4414426676 0.5203916113
0.5979962842 0.7707792253 0.9014555463 0.984041111 1.0178071121 1.0571095846
1.5231757347 1.5328181548 1.5521187055 1.5820241759 1.6168891037 1.6534378363
1.2809523443 1.4726747602 1.444949695 1.3120687611 1.3616991183 1.4873989291
4.3689912521 4.2970764291 4.2031809437 4.0851868773 3.9559315874 3.8167309741
3.0247023813 3.0548477233 3.0796202369 3.0987612948 3.110149153 3.1178151317
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2.5550079992 2.6280080429 2.710249367 2.776785407 2.8485052216 2.9204350932
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1.4297460795 1.2987820124 1.1705971086 1.0806529342 1.0612796413 1.1303232709
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1.3020388402 0.7975627627 0.3840600211 0.1313107069 0.0986164197 0.2126801444
3.8704701591 3.2286298432 2.7552253842 2.5125738785 2.5691143189 2.8126169589
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2.2974034111 2.3741300674 2.4339665674 2.4639205322 2.4482010374 2.4023931815
11.3564386275 13.5105849058 14.23679203 13.1614662479 10.615443877 7.5870983229
1.0704342784 1.0505280963 1.0344329195 1.0258997176 1.0273772904 1.0350371425
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3.0437604056 2.9524525243 2.9009602431 2.9010310087 2.9339774203 2.9719686326
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1.9345794305 2.1571282595 2.2962051579 2.3242373422 2.2754404867 2.2079989833
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3.8168497913 3.8342024097 3.8432623326 3.8426809344 3.8357498846 3.8260664667
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0.7525195324 0.686924957 0.669443526 0.712555746 0.79758329 0.9026800949
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2.593509791 2.5608813027 2.5287148555 2.50079653 2.4740945367 2.4459048668
1.4098439021 1.3796647794 1.353617399 1.326263603 1.2981494753 1.2724326747
2.9189641952 2.9599935774 2.9075634189 2.7413758198 2.5041372573 2.2514224745
2.2468642884 2.312938523 2.3606936503 2.3811845599 2.3824690956 2.3804398871
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2.0849024561 2.4533903303 1.6193080986 1.298440178 1.1863769375 1.2974360994
2.2155591823 2.1843978308 2.1492355862 2.1055775304 2.0599428635 2.0115245494
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0.4521101743 0.4621636758 0.4735567788 0.4853517748 0.4969015677 0.5094976733
1.2585210987 1.2930263091 1.2115320184 1.089912267 0.9235477199 0.7345528245
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3.7210774657 3.4742667867 3.2666672166 3.1134611355 2.9999549926 2.8915541454
2.7758399701 2.7771872255 2.7716388143 2.7587809413 2.7407190927 2.7203551888
1.9926240464 1.9437390326 1.8901412452 1.84750287 1.8142663716 1.7618938571
2.2762708716 2.2611548695 2.2469818182 2.2315899722 2.2166313091 2.2035822839
1.0373623317 1.0270839054 1.0120341987 0.9882076039 0.9590169547 0.9284182214
0.1289364627 0.1701838553 0.1074580095 0.0970454216 0.0950338786 0.12892233
0.2077327023 0.2100243059 0.1357262289 0.0983519219 0.075190689 0.0731972072
0.7551501337 0.7397632724 0.8473486522 0.9922197286 1.0574546855 1.2564539851
1.8463512656 1.8517430432 1.8493835986 1.8422895337 1.829661753 1.8096672488
-1.840297302 3.5405828188 5.5230395256 2.9022658345 2.9776474807 2.9065541543
-2.6286563552 0.9809801901 1.846876093 1.5553957091 2.2297950532 1.3376347795
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2.3500483649 2.1820634476 2.0660189533 1.8879493244 1.7627296219 1.6205094722
3.3213794309 3.3330088936 3.3166751998 3.2647063652 3.1909402724 3.1140924407
0.7180691302 0.7269553059 0.7305335226 0.7324917312 0.7227901318 0.7333699864
0.4693013216 0.492487351 0.5376538976 0.5253915161 0.5413905136 0.5339406512
2.6754269091 2.6621431941 2.6394903836 2.6062123234 2.5659011216 2.5238613035
0.4769558287 0.4636773821 0.4398749667 0.4008607106 0.351383332 0.2994655117
2.2555458435 2.265771146 2.2600165223 2.2362456158 2.1986770239 2.1558841231
1.6928326725 1.7962348119 1.851415046 1.8456805286 1.7956839392 1.732524453
1.2181597639 1.1945229492 1.1687874272 1.1407119597 1.1109227998 1.0803445703
1.957303393 2.2058480793 2.3584616637 2.373566906 2.2955693235 2.207092325
1.8460163971 1.8508128703 1.8372117158 1.8009385401 1.750039236 1.6914232944
0.421630223 0.3569932393 0.3585716157 0.4301081899 0.5486801166 0.7101198067
1.4098439021 1.3796647794 1.353617399 1.326263603 1.2981494753 1.2724326747
2.7758399701 2.7771872255 2.7716388143 2.7587809413 2.7407190927 2.7203551888
0.502312832 0.5081509199 0.4951984887 0.4621242741 0.4125129948 0.3574244903
1.13578848 1.1567037618 1.1678931002 1.167512853 1.1576139142 1.142910708
1.4856427648 1.5683755957 1.6194669871 1.6271941134 1.5980085335 1.5730116999
0.9168739499 0.9085436917 0.8726382891 0.8192617278 0.8489712774 0.8688623761
3.1438886251 3.1291409753 3.1161854691 3.1075724151 3.1008293083 3.0924540737
3.4158829475 3.3984795945 3.3767659605 3.3506503526 3.3215556861 3.2908723808
-0.3594800807 -0.2470992304 -0.2277047499 -0.4796159264 -0.2608057376 -0.3313805097
0.7634616324 0.7854664926 0.7945366172 0.7923976911 0.7727342879 0.7678955404
0.3316256096 0.3288808802 0.3300035237 0.3380717622 0.350484325 0.362269175
0.7426517983 0.7509149763 0.7112483867 0.752305212 0.7558129549 0.7343074397
2.6840155054 1.4720999881 1.5619043329 1.6869003592 1.7442583748 1.738849262
0.023781648 -0.011890117 -0.0073176979 0.0338398646 0.089574618 0.1716127451
1.4883097341 1.4481899894 1.4109566518 1.377538959 1.3467075471 1.3170572501
2.456359328 2.1557296418 1.9005175522 1.8143871307 1.7588098478 1.8034516495
-0.0609277656 -0.0933098741 -0.1359632091 -0.1481975745 -0.1614145457 -0.1858563866
1.0838581443 1.1287521304 1.1496100939 1.1379985652 1.1032471732 1.0603922174
2.3323501754 2.2945447932 2.2600621988 2.2298147248 2.1981846137 2.1679151106
1.1844189786 1.2056147439 1.2054254819 1.1994940207 1.1859826764 1.1769922702
0.7810241109 0.8114485204 0.8227423098 0.8004282424 0.7610469605 0.7025260068
0.8590674923 0.7897265892 1.041532574 -0.1261691382 -1.1038858093 0.7960241038
2.6973665771 2.6760502475 2.6398916813 2.5859053832 2.5202540452 2.451502043
1.3074137195 1.3959659184 1.4409065155 1.4259250443 1.368770441 1.3013740132
2.9504264415 3.0051328344 3.0369182639 3.0402107722 3.0241232532 3.0028155152
2.1096723048 2.2283061582 2.3093663062 2.3447990701 2.3456429706 2.3360695495
2017
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1er Parcial EI2018

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UNIVERSIDAD RAFAEL LANDIVAR

GUARDE ESTE ARCHIVO EN SU COMPUTADORA CON LAS SIGUIENTE NOMENCLATURA

a Determine cual será su variable dependiente (reorganic

c Complete el cuadro de Análisis Mínimo

d Cual de las tres variables describe mejor el comportamiento de

Realice un análisis Regresión Múltiple con el 95% de Nivel de confianza y escrib

f Realice el Pronostico para las 20 tiendas con la Ecuación de su pronostico

apoya a un terreno ubicado sobre el mismo boulevard que la

Su voto es el decisivo, ¿que terreno apoyaría?

su variable dependiente (reorganice si es necesario)

mplete el cuadro de Análisis Mínimo

escribe mejor el comportamiento de la variable dependiente

n el 95% de Nivel de confianza y escriba la ecuación que pronostique la

ar terrenos y parece que cada gerente simpatiza con una oferta en

decisivo, ¿que terreno apoyaría?

GRAFICA No. 1. GRAF

GRAFICA No. 2. GRAFICA N

Country Name - all -

ELIJO LA LINEA DE TENDENCIA:

2004 2006 2008 2010 0.00

2004 2006 2008 2010

NOTA: Para someter a prueba H0: � = 0

Coeficientes Error típico

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico Ventas/año Residuos

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

erior 95.0% Ingresos promedio en un radio de 2 Millas Curva de regresión ajustada

$500.00 Pronóstico Ventas/año

$500.00 Pronóstico Ventas/año

Gráfico de probabilidad normal

Country Name Country Code

0.5836147843 0.4860829266 0.3743138331 0.3988836561 0.4714016932 0.4503273337

3.341192204 3.2218582119 3.0320335378 2.8335294089 2.6663232961 2.5194004465

2.4436215864 2.4737383885 2.5011036354 2.5274745832 2.5542682045 2.5816217944

2.5422248287 2.5051037855 2.5112700815 2.4928784956 2.4582923349 2.4208218644

0.5847969882 0.8353331311 1.1698988759 1.4862022795 1.6038757609 1.6566752852

2.4061865572 2.3240693863 2.2442007021 2.1673500921 2.1154726658 2.0865391736

2.6098844976 2.6388488565 2.6655881742 2.6916087998 2.720978334 2.7545674897

2.3788791235 2.3310638852 2.0223229495 2.4097116265 1.5285319872 1.8201479592

1.6453536557 1.5091455752 1.3542632497 1.4188067929 1.3322888158 1.1508183385

2.0757773105 2.0594131157 2.0419593689 2.0630345421 2.1233077492 2.2041938603

2.7895359886 2.8227141179 2.8506890881 2.8712508687 2.8861321966 2.8934737698

2.3118176352 2.0235088902 2.096732303 0.5874016373 0.8587319264 0.9130888309

1.1710349673 0.9454154698 0.7089389935 0.6197074705 0.160073466 0.0454380285

2.311935698 2.3850442651 2.3403035783 2.1506082359 1.8800397232 1.5710902238

2.8975798219 2.89951005 2.8974779286 2.8927214544 2.884127093 2.8735822079

1.2160783348 0.5885667215 -0.1211669456 0.5920111516 0.8110169799 0.6233976918

0.0103676021 -0.4276860637 -0.3962507519 0.0844130207 0.5749277812 0.682256778

4.2451081752 0.3730314553 0.5974409093 0.4903596655 1.3319620125 0.4589178179

0.4998404871 0.3941876387 0.5126950553 0.791271347 1.0028147352 1.0430768361

2.0837583395 2.6657684726 1.4701720897 1.4671930264 1.1734536483 1.9556861897

1.1272995565 1.3330426659 1.5921514904 1.6851488573 1.6289509619 1.8283138179

2.1787030136 2.6960056436 2.8909600046 2.0387080112 1.0156632759 0.5448843841

0.4360724393 0.4237438033 0.5265561589 0.7310013766 0.9448453075 1.128834064

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