Fedg

The Fed - Interest Rates - Real
Winds Behind the Curtain

By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, November 30, 2018
Nothing has change with the broader view of the share market. Federal Reserve
Chairman Jerome Powell' statement that interest rates are close to neutral is a
far more reaching statement that meets the eye. The winds behind the curtain
are blowing hard against the banking system in the Eurozone. Powell is caught
between a rock and a very hard place. On the one hand he desperately needs to
keep moving rates higher to try to avert a massive pension crisis building in the
state and municipal level. On the other hand, lobbying is growing intense for the
Fed to please DO NOT RAISE RATES.
The risk of a European banking crisis begins in December and builds with
intensity into January. The EU is even putting pressure on Switzerland to sign
what is known as the framework agreement and gave them a deadline by
December 7th. The so-called framework agreement being discussed covers five
of the larger bilateral deals: free movement of persons, mutual recognition on
conformity assessment, agricultural products, air transport and land transport.
Measures related to the free movement of persons are the main stumbling block.
The share price of Deutsche Bank has been continually declining with little note
from mainstream press. The deadly silence about the European Banking Crisis is
very unsettling. There has been considerable lobbying against the Fed to stop
raising interest rates. The ECB cannot raise rates in the face of a banking crisis
without fear of pushing Europe off the edge.
We should expect volatility to begin to rise in December and our key turning
points are January and March. So get ready. The fun times are just beginning.
Today, we have the month-end closing. The Dow Jones Industrials is once again
nowhere near a Monthly Bearish Reversal so the consolidation still does not
threaten a change in long-term trend. In the Euro, a closing BELOW 11318
(October Close) will signal that this currency is still in a weak state. We will
remain looking for the 10800 area as the next critical support. Remaining below
11313 for the close of 2018 will be an important warning that this market is
poised to decline during the first quarter 2019.
US Share Market for November

20th, 2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
The US share market is still finishing its consolidation here in 2018. The future
will depend greatly upon the closing for year-end. In the Dow, we have elected 2
Weekly Bearish so far whereas we elected 3 in the S&P500 and the NASDAQ.
We have a Weekly Bearish Reversal at 24077 but the main bank of support starts
at the 23995-23340 level. The maximum retest of support may reach the first
Monthly Bearish at 21600.
We can see that the S&P500 advanced following the Dow, but where the Dow
moved about the uptrend channel, the S&P fell below it and then rallied to new
highs in September but test the channel from beneath.
Here we have a Weekly Bearish Reversal at 261075 and a Monthly Bearish at

259460.
The NASDAQ also was pushing through the top of the uptrend channel and it has
yet to penetrate the bottom as has been the case for the Dow.
Here we have a Weekly Bearish at 708480 and the Monthly Bearish lies at 699100
Keep in mind that a lower closing beneath the 2017 closings of 2501744 in the
Dow, 269073 in the S&P500, and 702848 in the NASDAQ Composite will suggest
the retest of support should unfold in 2019 before advancing.
We will provide a Year-End Report on the outlook ahead.
The Dow for the Close of October

2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Now that we have arrived at the end of October, the Directional Change that
came into play yesterday and the support encounter in the Dow in terms of Euro,
everything was still in play that we would not create a major change in long-term
trend. In the Dow, we would nee a monthly close today to come in under 23995
and we have generated a What-If Monthly Bullish for October at 25588.
Welcome to what appears to be a staging ground. Keep in mind that even a

Democratic win in the House would only prevent any reform so we will still see
the flight of capital from Public to Private asset classes perhaps even pick up
steam.
Dow in Dollars v Euro - Capital

Flows
By: Marty Armstrong
Here is the Dow Jones Industrial Index in dollars and Euro, While we have had
this sell-off and everyone was touting interest rates & trade, it was really about
the upcoming elections where the polls project the House will go back to the
Democrats. This will only ensure further economic stagnation for the Democrats
will do everything in their power to undermine Trump just so they can win back
the Presidency in 2020. This enbittered style of politics is just divisive and
ensures that the economy will only get worse.
Nonetheless, the market bounced with the Directional Change as it should have.
However, the capital flows have swung again. While they turned negative at the
top fearing the US elections, the loss of Merkel's CDU and her stepping down as
party leader is the prelude to Merkel going out the door. We could even see this
develop as soon as December.
Now look at the Dow in Euro compared to dollars. When the dollar perspective
looks like a crash, the Euro perspective should a minor correction and support.
The question is not how crazy things get in the USA, but how out of the mind
things become in Europe in the aftermath of Merkel. Just look at the two charts
with a simple uptrend line from the same point, What a difference a currency
makes.
Dow for the Close of 10/29/2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
We cam see what happened after we elected the Weekly Bearish Reversals.
Nevertheless, we have a Directional Change due tomorrow so do not expect a
tremendous collapse. I find it interesting how the yearly level on the Global
Market Watch which had been pointing to 2018 as a possible high, it has now
flipped with this price action to new highs are still likely. Keep in mind that is a
PURE pattern recognition model, separate and distinct from everything else.
We still see next week as the main target. The polls are showing that the
Republicans will lose the House. That definitely has capital scared. The
Democrats are just hostile right now and it does not matter if something is good
or bad - they are simply out for revenge. That is what has capital really upset.
As we approach month-end closing, a simple close below the September low of

2575432 will be a technical bearish indication for on the Dow at least, that would
be an outside reversal to the downside. The next monthly turning point will be
December and of course we have the big convergence of four models coming in
together for November.
The number to watch will be 23995 followed by 23340. These are the two
important numbers to watch for month end closing. Keep in mind that electing
both will point to a Panic to the downside will point to a test of the 21-22000
area. Keep in mind that at year-end, we need a closing above 24720.
So, nothing yet indicates anything serious just yet. A slingshot move would
certainly come into play if we get a monthly close below 23995. However, a
closing BELOW 22415 at the end of the month will also warn of a decline into
November.
Socrates Commentary
OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF Mon. Oct. 29, 2018: Dow
Jones Industrials closing today of 2444292 immediately is trading down about
1.11% for the year from last year's closing of 2471922. Thus far, we have been
trading down for the past 9 days, while we have made a low at 2412223 following
the high established Tue. Oct. 16, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's
high intraday and closed below that same session low creating an outside
reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 3.66%. Volatility
notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side closing beneath the
previous session low and it remains below all center cyclical support models as
well. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish below all our system
indicators.
We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support
indicator which was 2447812 settling at 2468831. The current crash mode
support for this session was 2427363 which we penetrated intraday but we
closed back above that level finishing at 2444292 implying the market is still
rather vulnerable yet sustaining for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the
next session will be 2393385. Now we have been holding above this indicator in
the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the
market opens above this number and holds it intraday, then we are consolidating.
Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in
fact holding.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2518936 and it will require a

closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Last day
we did see an outside reversal to the downside, which is a warning that we have
at least a pause in trend at this moment. If we penetrate that low of 2412223 and
close below it this session, then we can see further downside ahead in price
movement. Otherwise, holding that low intraday allows for a pause and
consolidation briefly.
Dow Jones
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, October 29, 2018
Tomorrow, we will be adding our Crash Model Model commentary to the online
report. These are technical dynamic numbers which are produced each day.
When the market often penetrates them intraday you get the crash. If you open
below them, this too can spark a quick rapid decline. So far the market did go
into Crash Mode on October 8th, but that subsided by the 12th. The recent
decline has been pervasive, but not actually in a panic mode type sell off. This is
why we do not yet see a meltdown technically. We will add this model to the
verbiage starting tomorrow.
The Crash Mode indicator for today, Monday 29th, lies at 2427363. This is the
number to watch intraday. We will have 25590 as monthly resistance to watch for
the closing on Wednesay at month end. The critical intraday support lies at
24075 and the first Minor Monthly Bearish lies at 23995, followed by 23340.
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Oct. 26, 2018: Dow Jones
Industrials closing today of 2468831 immediately is trading down about 0.12% for
the year from last year's closing of 2471922. Thus far, we have been trading down
for the past 8 days, while we have made a low at 2444519 following the high
established Tue. Oct. 16, 2018. The previous session's low has been broken
intraday but we closed back above that low yet still closed lower at the end of
the trading session. We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash
Mode technical support indicator which was 2431911 settling at 2498455. The
current crash mode support for this session was 2447812 which we penetrated
intraday but we closed back above that level finishing at 2468831 implying the
market is still rather vulnerable for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next
session will be 2427363. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the
current trading session, thus maintaining above this indicator again in the next
session will imply the market is still consolidating just yet. Nonetheless, the
market remains quite bearish below all our system support indicators with
resistance starting at 2476879. The the broader cyclical system indicators are
also in a bearish position.
US Share Market for Elections

By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, October 26, 2018
The next target week has been highlighted by the computer as 11/05 in line with
the elections. That is what this correction has been all about. Today, the key will
be 24965 in the Dow, 26767 in the cash S&P for the closing. Do not forget that we
also have three different highs. August for the NASDAQ, September for the S&P
and October for the Dow. We should thus pay attention to the NASDAQ for here
the ideal low was this week of 10/22 - not 11/05. Therefore, if the NASDAQ holds
this week's low for the next 2 weeks, look at this as a leading indicator.
We still have this problem of a stock market crash produces the flight to quality
as cash runs to bonds. But bonds are in trouble on this cycle so it makes no
sense that we are looking at a major correction here in equities just yet. The only
way that unfolds is a true Dark Age type meltdown whereby the underlying
capital formation is wiped out. We do not appear to be at such a crossroads at
this stage.
The S&P Array does show a Directional Change this week. This is why I am
warning DO NOT Anticipate electing Weekly Bearish Reversals just yet. Let the
market reveal its intentions.
In the Dow, we need a closing BELOW 24965 today to signal a further decline into
the elections. Sources are stating that all these packages of fake bombs sent to
Democrats may be by a ploy by Democrats to get out the vote. Not a single
package exploded. Either it was poorly done or intentional duds that were used
for political news. Just very strange.
A closing BELOW 24579 in the Dow today would warn of entering CRASH MODE
so that would reflect a sharper decline to test the monthly level of support. A
closing today ABOVE 25588, which is unlikely, would signal a cycle inversion and
a run to the highs.
The S&P500 the number is 26767 and a closing below that will also point to a
potential low going into the elections. To stabilize the market even briefly where
we consolidate requires a closing ABOVE 268360 today.
When we turn to the NASDAQ, we have fallen back to test the original Uptrend
Channel where the top rests at 736693. We reached this week a low at 709900.
We ABSOLUTELY need a closing ABOVE 719716 to signal that we "may" have a
low in place this week. The more solid number will be 735430. Our Weekly
Bearish Reversal here lies in wait at 708482. A closing below that will warn that
the NASDAQ may simply be overpowered by the election cycle and head down
into the week of 11/05.
Therefore, the numbers to watch today at 24965 in the Dow, 26767 in S&P and
709482 in the NASDAQ. Electing all three and we are in CRASH MODE for the
elections. Even a mixed bag would point lower but not a crash type affair just yet.
Avoiding ALL three would not relieve the correction, it would signal
consolidation.
We do not see this market coming to a decision until after the election.
US Share Market
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, October 25, 2018
We can see that the market has fallen to new lows for the week of 10/22 and
today is the ideal day for the low this week and we have a Directional Change
tomorrow 10/26. The market has plummeted after we elected the Weekly Bearish
Reversal back at 25753. The next Weekly Bearish has been penetrated 24965
intraday but we cannot ANTICIPATE that it will be elected just yet come Friday. If
we do, then expect a continued decline into the week of 11/05 for the elections
which have scared the hell out of major capital. The next Weekly Bearish will
actually provide some target intraday support at 24075. The first Monthly Bearish
lies at 23995. The Monthly Bearish that would signal a bear market into 2020 and
a cycle inversion with a flip out back up thereafter into 2032 would be indicated
by a Monthly Closing below 21600. So far, there is nothing implying that pattern
just yet.
We can see that the monthly technical support begins at 23967. This is the
ultimate area we should test to create a panic where people expect the market
to meltdown. This is probably what is necessary as we head into these elections
which will unleash violence in the aftermath.
The two next critical Monthly targets will be December and February. We are
sending our a Special Report next week to attendees of the WEC. What is going
on is we are approaching not just the Pi Target here on the ECM 11/21, but this is
also a MAJOR Convergence of FOUR models all coming together at the same
time. This Pi Target tends to be POLITICAL in nature so it can be extremely
important.
The greatest confusion is trying to comprehend the market performance.
NORMALLY, in a stock market crash, you have the Flight to Quality which is to
bonds. But this time, we have government in trouble. We also have interest rates
closer to a 5000 year historic low. We have Italy's budget being rejected in
Brussels and the entire bond markets in Europe have become illiquid.
We are at a crossroads here where capital will be confronted by insanity. This

appears to be setting up for the biggest bear-trap perhaps in history. This is
when we need the computer more than ever to pierce through the veil of
emotions to reveal the true trend.
Timing for US Share Market
By: Marty Armstrong
The 23rd was a Directional Change and penetrating that low we would expect
further downside. Keep in mind that the Weekly Bearish lies at 24965 and we
have penetrated that level intraday. A closing beneath that level on Friday will
signal we will most likely move lower into the week of 11/05. The bearishness is
all about the elections. Real capital investment is deeply concerned that the
Democrats are so vindictive that they will seriously harm the economy just to
reverse whatever Trump has done just for spite. This decline has NOTHING to do
with interest rates or trade. It is about politics.
We have a Daily Bearish at 25052 and a closing below that will tend to point to
lower numbers ahead. We will see another Directional Change on Friday. We are
not yet through this consolidation period and the main support lies just under the
24000 level starting at 23995.
US Share Markets
By: Marty Armstrong
While the Dow barely exceeded Friday's high on Monday, that was not the case in
the NASDAQ. Yet all three closed lower on Monday. We are still in this choppy
consolidation. Since we did elect a Weekly Bullish on Friday in the Dow, that put
us on warning that the decline would at least pause. This is why we NEVER enter
trades in ANTICIPATION of anything. Only on the Reversals.
The NASDAQ made a new high today and the Dow did not. This is reflected in the
Arrays which are different between the three indexes right now. Keep in mind
that the NASDAQ peaked in August, S&P500 in September, and the DOW during
the first week of October. So we should NOT expect all to behave in agreement.
Nevertheless, this is also an indication that we are not looking at a MAJOR Crash
that would reverse the long-term trend.
So NEVER NEVER NEVER Anticipate. Be dispassionate about the market for
remember it is always going to be your own EMOTIONS that get the best of your
judgement. ONLY trade on Reversals!!!!! Always let the market PROVE its
direction. It is always the master of deception.
We are still in a position where we can make new lows before the elections. The
number to watch is 267670 on the Cash S&P500. We stopped last week at
271051. So we have important support beneath last week's low that is not much
further down. So do not get all bearish expecting the world just yet.
This is going to stay choppy into next week. The markets are still trying to figure
out the direction as we have domestic players are bearish and international
players more bearish on their home fronts. So this clash of views is responsible
for the choppy pattern we should expect at this time.
The share markets should see some sort of a trend take shape for the elections.
Daily closings BELOW 276680 in the Cash S&P500, 24898 in the Dow, and 27400
in the NASDAQ would suggest that we will retest the lows.
REMEMBER - Position trading makes money - short-term trading more often than
not loses money because people trade emotionally. Trade for the trend - not the
daily swings without reversals!!!!
The US Share Market Bounce & the
Coming ECM
By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, October 16, 2018
The 15th ended with a lower closing inside day so the opposite direction should
have followed. This is unfolding as a bounce and the S&P500 & NASDAQ really
point to the tomorrow whereas the Dow showed Thursday with also a Panic
Cycle. We still do not see a major change in trend insofar as creating a bear
market. Therefore, the numbers to watch now on the upside are 27794 in the
Dow, 2938 in the S&P500 and 807790 in the NASDAQ that would signal a
breakout to the upside. Most are still worried about the U.S. elections, for the
Democrats are advocating violence if they do not win. They also are swearing to
raise taxes significantly to punish the "rich" who are small business and the
super-rich, banks, and big corps donate to the Democrats for tax brakes. But the
Democrats are also advocating the Deep State and are deliberately looking to
retaliate against Russia for Hillary's loss and will not stop at even instigating
World War III. So the next few years looks crazy.
We also have a political crisis building in Europe with both BREXIT and Italy sent
its budget in confrontation with Brussels. So the political picture looks very bad
and that is the key element to undermine confidence and further push the shift
from Public to Private assets. This will be manifest in the continued decline in
the bond markets.
So far with the ECM, 2015.75 marked the start of the rise in interest rates.
November 2017 was the breakout to the upside in the share market that led to
the January high, on July 16th, 2018 the summit between President Trump and
Vladimir Putin came to an end. Trump came immediately under fire for defending
Russia against election meddling charges and the response in the Senate was to
block any American being questioned by Russia for meddling in their elections
back in 2000. Now we face the Pi Turning point on November 21st. This one has
typically been political in nature.
The last two waves produced interesting political turning points. The 1998-2002
was produced 911 attack on the World Trade Center which justified homeland
security and we can no longer fly with cash in our pockets.
The 2010 turning point produced the announcement that Greece needed to be
bailed out.
The Markets for the Week of

10/15/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, October 15, 2018
The spectacular decline in the New York Stock Exchange last week seemed like
a crash at first to most people, but a closer look reveals some global risks that
are bubbling up on the surface. Closer analysis reveals that the US financial
market crash was not really about interest rates or even a trade war with China.
There have been the chorus of bears who have kept calling to the end of this
high-altitude flight which they have refused to really acknowledge has been the
most hated bear market in all recorded history. What is at stake here is total
confusion. The primary disturbing underlying concerns has been the
confrontational attitude of Democrats and their outright support of civil unrest,
which they even fully know means more violence. They are preaching that they
will raise taxes on the rich dramatically, lower everyone's healthcare costs, and
create more jobs all simultaneously. By attacking the "rich" (defined as
household income of $250,000) means they will target small business and that
cannot create jobs. The only way to raise taxes and regulations on the "rich" and
create more jobs requires governments to hire and that would only further the
economic crisis ahead.
We encountered a Superposition situation on the Weekly Level in the Dow

electing two long-term term Weekly Bullish Reversals against a Short-term
Weekly Bearish. This tends to imply that we are not looking at a major crash just
yet. The critical support lies at the 21600 level in the Dow and ONLY a closing on
a monthly basis beneath that area would alter the short-term trend.
The NASDAQ peaked in August, the S&P500 in September, and then the Dow the
week of October 1st. This clearly demonstrates that the domestic players were
backing off and the new highs in the Dow were being driven by foreign capital
inflows fleeing somewhere else.
When we look at the Euro, the dollar peaked (Euro low) on August 15th,
2018. However, it has been unable to exceed even the breakout line and it has
fallen back within the previous Downtrend Channel. This is technically a weak
posture and resistance is forming at 11583 level and the Euro must rally back
above this level to see a bounce back to the 119-120 zone. However, that requires
a restoration of confidence in Europe which is also difficult to find.
In Europe, the European Central Bank continues the dangerous attempt to stifle
reality by cheap money destroying the bond market in the process. In the
process, we have the steady undermining of the Merkel government in Europe
ensuring she will eventually be thrown out with the dirty laundry and that will
start the undermining of confidence in the EU as the refugee crisis has been the
driving force. Meanwhile, Italy is in a confrontation with the EU which is applying
Germany austerity which has undermined the Southern European economies,
created the refugee crisis, and produced the lost generation of youth with
unemployment at almost three times that of the US Great Depression.
The other economic areas, especially emerging markets, are coming under
pressure and remain hopeless insofar as reversing the future. They took
advantage of low interest rates to sell debt to particularly pensions and they
denominated that debt in dollars to make the sales. So as the interest rates rise
and the dollar, Emerging Markets are simply tottering on the edge of a cliff with
no hope of avoiding the fall. While Brazil has its political problems, its share
market peaked in February 2018. It has staged a rally to retest the former highs,
which is more of a reflection of the difference in the posture between Public and
Private assets on a global scale.
The key is US interest rates, which are above 3 percent and end the low interest
rate period. We are now looking at the Fed raising rates that will reach 5%+ by
2020. They Fed is keenly aware of the pension crisis on the horizon. The
adjustment to the new conditions could be without spectacular upheaval. Then
there is the US-Chinese trade war which has been escalating, yet will do more
harm to China's economy than the United States.
Monday the 15th is important. We achieved the Directional Change on Thursday
creating the low. But this week the key days are the 15th and 18th/19th. If we
retest the low here on the 15th, then this may hold and we rally into the end of
the week. It we bounce and just exceed Friday's high, then the risk will be of a
decline into the end of the week. When we look at the NASDAQ and S&P, the key
days are Wednesday 17th, yet they both still show the 15th as a target as well.
The NASDAQ has a Directional Change due on Tuesday, so this also tends to
suggest that the 15th is a leading indicator for this week ahead.
Dow Jones Opening 10/12/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Yesterday was a Directional Change and the next target is Monday 15th. We can
see that the market fell and held the bottom of the uptrend channel. This does
not guarantee that the decline is over. It merely suggests that we can get that
bounce into Monday and then resume the decline. It all depends upon the closing
and a close below 25753 today will tend to warn that we can resume the decline.
I posted the view of the DAX. Note that there the high remains January. This is
indicative of the fact that the Capital Flows have moved into the USA and this
was the drive behind the Dow Rally into October. This has been a foreign capital
inflow based upon the dollar and the pessimistic views outside the USA
concerning Europe and China.
We can see that the targets will be the 15th and 18th/19th next week. We expect
volatility to rise into the end of next week crossing over into the week of the
22nd.
We can see we have a Directional Change the week of the 22nd and then we have
the week of the elections which will be followed by Panic Cycle the week of
11/26. High volatility will remain next week as well.
The Reversals will be the determining factor for these moves. A closing above
25044 today should imply a bounce into Monday for 2 days and then back down.
A closing today below 24965 will signal a drop ahead of another 1,000 points.
The View of the DAX

By: Marty Armstrong
The Array on the DAX published back in August showed October as a target with
high volatility and a Directional Change back-to-back with November. The
volatility will be the name of the game now for the final quarter of 2018 and then
we have a critical turning point arriving in April which seems to be lining up with
BREXIT. Note that volatility will rise against next summer. We will also see
December and February begin to shape up as important turning points which
should produce the opposite of each other.
The DAX peaked the week of January 18th, 2018 and has fallen into a bearish
decline opposite of the USA. This has clearly followed our Capital Flow Models
which pointed to European capital in flight which drove the US share market to
new highs depending upon the index from August to October. The Weekly Bearish
lies at 1185025 and we did in fact elect all four Weekly Bearish from the January
high. We have only elected the first Monthly Bearish Reversal in the cash DAX.
The next Monthly Bearish to watch lies at 1186880. Taking out this area and we
have a large GAP down to the 1040000 zone. Yesterday, the DAX fell to 1151856
level. We have an addition set of Weekly Bearish Reversals at 1172235 and
1140480. A closing below 1140480 today will warn of a sharp drop to the 104-105
zone becomes likely.
We also see the week of 10/22 as a target. Note the high volatility that begins
with the American elections. We have Directional Changes going into that
period.
The Dow Close of 10/11/2018

By: Marty Armstrong
The Dow fell to the bottom of the Channel and actually held another Daily
Bearish Reversal we have at 25052.50 closing at 2052.83. This now puts critical
support on today's low and tomorrow we have a Weekly Bearish at 24965 which
becomes critical. We have now generated a Weekly Bullish on our Minor model
which will be 25044. To be a strong buy signal, the market must close above
25754.
We still see next week as a target rather than this week. We will update
tomorrow after the opening.
US Share Market Afternoon Update

By: Marty Armstrong
The Dow is trading at 25360 after we got the mid-day rally. A close today below
25454 will keep the market weak. A closing BELOW 25294 today should signal a
further decline and the next low may unfold on Monday. If we get this sell signal,
then we should move to the next Weekly Bearish which lies at the 24965 level
and if that is elected tomorrow, then we should test the Monthly Bearish in the
23 zone next week.
We are setting the stage for a real interesting outcome here right on time for the
WEC
US Share Market Update Mid-Day

By: Marty Armstrong
Next target is Monday 15th (not March) - auto correct stuff is not always so great.
We need the Dow to close above 25454 to stabilize others it will still technically
close weak. Yet a closing below 25222 will warn of that decline into next week is
still on the table. A close on the Dow below 25753 tomorrow will also warn of a
decline into next week.
US Share Market Update

By: Marty Armstrong
The market has broken the intraday support and a close below 25294 in the Dow
today will imply a further drop into Monday 15th. The Dow fell to 25226. We have
key support at 25222 and 25092 followed by the critical support at 24965.
The SPX has fallen to 2745. The SPX broke the 2760 intraday but the key support
is now 2720-2717 and 2678. A closing above 2717 tomorrow will imply the market
is starting to firm.
Keep in mind market are like a horse race. The horses that start at at full speed
often get tired by the end of the race. Pushing the declines right after the bell is
often followed by firming later. So just watch the numbers and keep the emotions
in check.
US Share Market Post-Open

10/11/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
We can see that when yesterday opening inside the channel, the break began. We
held the previous Breakline and that rests today at 25557.05. With today as a
Directional Change, we have a reasonable shot that we can see a temp low today
with a bounce into Monday. The Dow has not broken anything important with
respect to broad support. That lies at the 24965 level. A closing today above
2557.05 will raise the possibility of a temp low. A closing above 25889 will
increase the chances for a bounce into Monday.
In the SPX, our projected technical support lies at 2765 and so far the market fell
to 2767. A closing below 2565 will technically imply a further decline rather than
a bounce. You want to watch 2765 intraday as important tech support.Breaking
2760 intraday may lead to a drop to the 2720 area. After that, the tech support
forms at 2720-2717 and 2678. A closing above 2717 tomorrow will imply the
market is starting to firm.
We also have a Directional Change in the SPX on a weekly level. The next three
weeks look to be an increase in volatility ahead.
The Dow Before the Open
By: Marty Armstrong
Keep in mind that the next Daily Target in Monday 15th and today is a Directional
Change. We see tech support in the Dow today beneath yesterday's low at 25494
followed by 25294 and 25222. We have a Weekly Bearish Reversal at 25754 so a
closing below that on Friday implies a low on Monday.
US Share Market in the Aftermath

By: Marty Armstrong
The cyclical picture is still one that remains a broad path of consolidation. This is why we
warned that it is just not going to be over until we get past November for then we have the
elections. The decline has been blamed on rising interest rates as if they just discovered that and
China now search people at the border for bringing back Luxury goods from the USA. Keep in
mind that a Democratic victory in the November elections will be really bad overall because the
confidence in the market will be undermined. Still, that does not mean the market would be dead.
As long as it is worse elsewhere, then the capital will still seek shelter but not in bonds.
Nevertheless, when we glance at all three US share market indexes, the striking thing the jumps
out is the lack of an nice isolated high. This formation ensures that the bull run is by no means
over yet. Indeed, we have three indexes and each peaked at a different month August -
September - October.
From a cyclical perspective, exceeding the August high during October on the 3rd yet failing to
get through out overhead resistance has remained as a highly volatile calling card for
October/November. This is especially true since the NASDAQ has not exceeded the August high
warning that the market was indeed encountering overhead resistance This was the case for the
Dow Jones, but clearly not the NASDAQ which was holding back. We need a Monthly Closing
below 23995 to signal a serious correction becomes possible.
A weekly closing now back above 25806 at the end of the week will signal a rally into the next
target.Major closing support lies at 25045 for the close of this week.We have a Directional
Change tomorrow and the next daily target in time will be Monday 15th. Holding today's low
tomorrow implies a bounce. So pay attention to the opening.
The NASDAQ, on the other hand, did NOT exceed the August high so that left the pattern intact
that an August high would be followed by an October/November low. The NASDAQ even
elected a Weekly Bearish on Friday warning that a sharp decline was likely. Now a closing below
708400 on Friday in the NASDAQ warns that we are looking at a sharp decline to test the
Monthly Bearish Reversals in the 690000 zone.
We have to be concerned that since this week is a Directional Change, volatility will remain high
next week and then the next turning point will be the week of 10/22 followed by the election
week of 11/05, this can get really dicey and a whipsaw cannot be ruled out. If we now close this
week at least back above 718370, we could see this week's low hold and then a swing up into
10/22 and a retest of the lows into the election.
When we turn to the S&P500, here we have a high between the Dow & NASDAQ which formed
in September. The market has exceeded the January high but remains within the well defined
Uptrend Channel. We have technical support at 2768 and 2635. A closing at the end of this week
ABOVE 2681 will also warn we could have a bounce. However, we do have resistance at 2795
so we really need a close back above that area. A closing above 2851 will signal a STRONG
BOUNCE IS LIKELY. Daily Bullish is now at 2921.
The Dow Going into Week of 10/15-22

By: Marty Armstrong
Well the target wee of 10/01 produced a high and and an outside reversal to the downside. The
next target is now the week of 10/15-22. A weekly closing below 25753 will confirm it should be
a sharp decline. For now, we see that the uptrend channel and the breakout channel converge at
26392-26408 and we are currently trading at 26155. By next week, the technical support will lie
at 24929 and resistance at 26298.
We have a Directional Change due the week of the 22nd and then we should see the opposite
trend into the week of the elections 11/05. Our next weekly Panic Cycle will appear the week of
11/26.
We have a Daily Bearish at 26349 and an important one at 26037. A daily closing below that will
bring the Weekly Bearish Reversal into play. Beyond that, we have Daily Bearish under the
market at 25805 and 25294.
the next two Daily targets in time will be 10/15 and 10/18.
So buckle up. As we head into these chaotic elections, the model is clearly showing that we
should expect far more civil unrest and clearly the new Democratic strategy is in fact to
encourage violence. The left is turning toward a far more violent profile. Civility is gone. This is
by no means going to end very nicely. The new motto of the left - WARNING -
WE MAY NOT PLAY NICELY WITH OTHERS.
Quarterly Closed for September 2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, September 28, 2018
The only two market close to a Quarterly Bearish Reversal are gold and the Euro. In gold it lies
at 1140 which does not appear to be in play. In the Euro it is also out of play down at the 105
area. However, technically, the underling support will be 111.10 for the next quarter
The Closing of September 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, September 28, 2018
As we go into the closing of September 2018, everything is still pointing to volatile times ahead
and no doubt this will confuse the vast majority. I was just asked to do an interview after two
years and they openly said I was the only guest they have had who has been correct. Of course,
that is the computer and not my personal opinion. Still, this reflects something very interesting. I
have always WARNED that the majority must always be wrong for that is the fuel that drives the
markets. We have has everyone from dollar bears, gold bugs, to perpetual stock market bears in
virtually every field call these markets complete wrong now for years. Yet at this juncture in
time, we have everything pushing the envelope to the very edge.
In gold we have a Weekly Bearish Reversal at 1184. However, the Monthly Bearish is 1194. We
have system resistance building for next week at 1195 and the main bank of support begins down
at 1120. Everything is still pointing to October with a November shift. So stay on guard here.
In the Euro, we elected a Minor Weekly Bullish at 11750 but just above was the more important
one at the 1792 area. This nonetheless gave us the high on Monday at 11815. We now have a
Daily Bearish at 11613 and at the time of this post we are trading at 11612. A simply close below
12200 today is a long-term Weekly Bearish. This does not warrant taking any action right now.
Next week, system resistance will be standing at the 11725 level. We will also achieve another
long-term Monthly Bearish Reversal today by just closing below 12000. An immediate Monthly
Bearish lies at 11508 on our What-If models for today. So a closing below 11613 yet above
11608 is still bearish, but it signals that the Euro is still hanging on with ECB intervention
quietly behind the curtain. The Italian budget came out 3x higher than expected and this is
reflection the tension in the Eurozone. It also demonstrates that the austerity policies of Europe
will tear the EU apart making the Euro an impossible dream.
In the Dow, a closing above the January high of 26616 will be technically bullish. We really see
the technical resistance in the 28307 area and support forming at 25576. The Senate Judiciary
Committee voted 11-10 Friday to move Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination to the
Senate floor, leaving open the possibility of a one-week FBI investigation into sexual assault
accusations against him.Strangely enough, the week of 10/01 has been our target for the next
turning point.
The Democrats have made a major case out of this as if it were even a definitive issue. I have
read many Supreme Count decisions and you do not find that people vote based upon who
nominated them. There are often even on opposite side was was the case with Obamacare when
Chief Justice Roberts, a Republican appointee against Democrats on that one as well, voted
against his fellow Republicans to uphold Obamacare with the Democrats. He called it a tax
which the Democrats denied to get it through.
The Euro going into October 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, September 24, 2018
The Euro elected a Minor Weekly Bullish at 11750 closing at 11753. This suggests that we
should see a rally against the greenback into the week of 10/01. We have overhead technical
resistance starting at the 11846 level followed by significant resistance in the 120-121 area. We
ran our What-If models suggesting a high the week of 10/01 and the computer came back with a
Weekly Bearish at the 12200 level. This warns that the euro has to make a very significant rally
here to avoid a sell signal next week. The next Weekly Bullish stands at 11792, so this is what we
will need to watch at the end of this week. We also have a Daily Bullish at 11792 so this is an
important area right now. At the time of this post, the Euro is at 11776.
The Monthly Bearish is still below the market at 11550 area and it is a break of that area where
we have a BIG GAP all the way down to the 105 area. This is the real critical area to pay
attention to for this can be a huge trade.
On the upside, we have a Minor Monthly Bullish at the 11845 level for the end of this week. We
need to close ABOVE this to suggest that rally in the Euro can be more impressive for now. A
closing below that signal this is still treading water in a consolidation pattern. We have a shot
here at a big trade opportunity.
The Dow for Week of 09/24/18
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, September 24, 2018
We did not OPEN above last week's high so we may move into a low next week to retest support.
This is what we mean that the consolidation is not yet over. The Breakout Channel on the Weekly
level stood at 26692.21 on the bottom and the market reached intraday 26769.16. It did close
slight into the channel, but that was not yet enough to signal the breakout.
On the daily level, we are trading within the Breakout Channel but have not pushed through the
top. This allows plenty of room to retest the bottom-side of the channel.
We have a Daily Bearish at 26067 and a closing below that will signal a retest of support. The
first Weekly Bearish lies at 25877 so this is where key support begins. AT the end of this week
we also have the month-end closing. The Monthly bearish do not begin until below 24000.
One of the curiosities of the market behavior relative to our Reversals has been how critical
reversals once elected reverse direction and become critical support. We have stood by and
watched the 1362 level in gold stand on a monthly closing basis and 1341 on a quarterly closing
come hell or high water. Now the 25800 in the Dow may be critical in general as support. If we
tend to retest that area yet hold into year-end, then we could be creating a platform for a Vertical
Market. That is not yet confirmed. Just keep this in mind and observing the remainder of the
year.\
For month end close this Friday, we see support moving into October forming at the 25500-
25000 level. Closing resistance will stand 26620. A closing ABOVE that may signal a rally into
November.
Keep in mind that while we have craziness going on in Washington with the Deep State Coup
slowly becoming exposed, the insanity in Europe is not to be ignored. We also have the
Democrats in the USA secretly advocating war against Russia behind the curtain as retribution
for Hillary's emails. Keep in mind this is very much like being blamed for coming home early to
catch a thief in your home and then he blames you for returning early.
Today, we have support at the 26315 level and we are trading at 26584 at the time of this post. A
close below 26519 today will warn of a further decline tomorrow is possible. The key target in
time this week is split Wed/Thurs and this is followed by Monday Oct 1st with a Panic Cycle the
next day.
Once again, the failure to open above last week's high signals a retest of support is likely.
US Share Market
By: Marty Armstrong
Sunday, September 23, 2018
The way the cycles were set up, an August high would have been followed by a low in
November. Once we exceeded the August high, then we are clearly still in this cycle inversion
and that means we are still consolidating. Despite making a new high, we are still below
technical resistance so we are consolidating and not in a runaway market just yet.
On August 31, we warned that the market had to close below the Weekly Bullish at 25800. Doing
so would have meant a decline. We elected that set of Weekly Bullish in the Dow. However,
many noticed that the S&P500 had elected its comparable Weekly Bullish the week before 08/20.
The one lagging was the NASDAQ.
Next week we have a Directional Change. That can be a blast off if we open ABOVE this past
week's high. But it can also turn back down and retest support since the NASDAQ has not yet
joined the party.
There are a lot of analysts starting to copy what we have been saying. That should be expected.
Nevertheless, all we can do is follow the computer at this stage. The numbers are the key. The
market speaks if we care to listen.
At this stage now, the support lies at 25800. As long as that area holds on a weekly closing basis,
then the consolidation will remain in play. The key support lies now at 24965 and only a weekly
closing below that will confirm a correction pattern.
In the S&P500, the corresponding numbers are 2850 and 2794.
Exceeding the August high may prove to be a game changer. There was a shot that the market
would back off into 2020 and then rally thereafter into 2032. The other pattern is exceeding this
year's high next year points to a serious run up into 2020. Then we can see the decline in the
dollar from there and the inflationary boom off into 2024.
So hold tight. We are clearly in the staging process right now.
The Euro & British Pound

By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, September 20, 2018
We have a Minor Weekly Bullish in the Euro cash at 11750 for tomorrow. We are trading at the
time of this post at 11756. We have Directional Changes showing up in the currency as well as
the US share markets. We have so many crazy fundamentals going on around the world it is just
insane. Anyone who pretends they can forecast this based upon a personal "I think" will be just
luck or a fool. I have been an international hedge fund manager and analyst my whole life and
this is the worst I have EVER seen in 40 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is what the Reversal System was design for. To be objective in the midst of total chaos and
uncertainty. November is shaping up as a Panic Cycle in the Euro, not in the share market. In the
Pound, we have a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle in October. The political risks around
the world are just everywhere. This is also why we scheduled the WEC in November and just
after the US elections.
In the British pound we do have a Minor Monthly and Weekly Bullish Reversal at 13213 and
13214, which are extremely close together. We are currently trading at 13248. Here too we see
the strongest target for a turning point being the week of 10/01.
It is beginning to small like a Vertical Market may unfold. Everything is pushing to the edge.
How a Vertical Market will unfold will be a combination of signal from a number of markets -
not just one. We will stay on top of this because this may end up defining the balance of our
lives.
US Share Market
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, September 20, 2018
The Dow Jones continued to make new highs after exceed our first level of technical resistance.
So far the market has reach 26654.19 this morning. We will have 26420.82 as technical support
for the closing. Next week is a Directional Change showing up in all three markets. The week of
Oct 1st is the strongest target in the Nasdaq whereas we have the week of 10/15 as the strongest
targets in the Dow & S&P500. The Dow has been leading again so this is reflecting the
international influence. The S&P500 is making new highs reflecting how the perpetual bears
keep having to buy shorts back. The Nasdaq is lagging and that shows the domestic investors are
still not on board yet.
This market is still in a consolidation pattern. The good news is the Dow has now exceeded the
January high. Exceeding the September high in October points to higher highs going into year
end. Our next targets will be November and January. Again, if we close above the 2017 high of
24876.07, we stand a reasonable shot at creating a Vertical Market. We will be going over the
key points and markets at the WEC.
For now, only a closing below the 26030 level will signal a correction. This will begin to move
higher with the market. The Reversals are the ONLY game in town. Once we took out the
Weekly Bullish back at 25800, the rally was confirmed. Just keep the reversals as the key. They
will forecast things far better than any person can ever hope.
The Dow Breakout or Temp High?
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
The Dow has broken out to the upside but it is not yet through technical
resistance. Today, a closing below 26406 is not a Reversal, but it will warn that
we can still see a temp high with a Direction Change due tomorrow on the daily
level. A Friday closing also below last week's high of 26211 will also warn that
we are still really just consolidating. The next real target will be the week of
10/01 so exceeding this week's high next week should signal a further rally to
Test the January high.
As stated previously, exceeding this year's high next year will most likely signal
a Vertical Market into 2020/2021. The politics will play a role, but keep in mind
that everything everywhere is just going nuts - not just Trump. Capital will move
according to country risk. The volatility is likely to appear for December going
into year-end. All we can do is follow the computer and the Reversals. That is the
only way to deal with this political-economic uncertainty on absolutely every
front globally. We also have a leadership election in Japan tomorrow.
In the NASDAQ, a month-end close today below 744300 would signal a collapse is likely into
November. We need a closing today ABOVE 763730 to imply the market can possibly hold. A
failure to close above that number will also imply that we can crash into November.
Gold for the Closing of August 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, August 31, 2018
We can see that gold continues to consolidate. The Monthly Bearish is down at 1194 and the
Bullish stands up at 1271. We do have support for the close of August at 1208 and 1204.
August was our target for a turning point and the next will be November. Here too we see high
volatility in September and a Panic Cycle. A Directional Change comes in November. Keep in
mind that gold can bounce from the August low in the face of instability created by Mueller's
attempt on behalf of the Deep State to overthrow Trump. The Monthly Bullish Reversal remains
at 136250 so nothing has changed. Resistance will also be found at 1327.
German DAX for the Close of August 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
The DAX is in a neutral position. Our Monthly Bearish lies down at 1186870 while the Monthly
Bullish stands at 1334000. We do no see a major signal coming in this market today.
Nonetheless, a month-end close today below 125476 will still signal that the market is in a weak
consolidating position, but that will not preclude a bounce into October. To provide a sell signal
confirming an October low, we need a close today below 1200000. We do have a Weekly Bearish
at 1220500 and electing this today would also imply perhaps an October low.
October is the next turning point. Keep in mind that a crack in the US share market because of an
attempt to overthrow Trump by the Deep State led by Mueller, will destabilize the stock markets
overall and we may see the European share markets follow the US departing from the currency
markets.
British Pound for Closing of August 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
When we look at the British pound, we also see a bounce and here the Monthly Bearish Reversal
is 13027. A closing above this number today will also suggest that the pound should rally against
the dollar into October. Once again, the picture that is being painted by the computer is that we
will see a shift toward concern with respect to the dollar because Mueller's conspiracy by the
Deep State to overthrow Trump which may come to a head in October to try to influence the
November elections.
Here we have a admixture of political instability. PM Theresa May was personally against
BREXIT and she has caused a split in the Conservatives. Britain is hurling ever closer to a hard
BREXIT. We can see the volatility will generally rise from September almost all the way out
until next June. We have a Directional Change in September and high volatility with a Panic
Cycle. Empirical models and the top composite both align for an October turning point.
Euro for the Close of August 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
The Euro has bounced back above our critical Monthly Bearish which resides at 11553. We also
have a very long-term Monthly Bullish Reversal generated from the August low at 11430.
Therefore, a closing above 11553 will imply that the Euro may bounce into October and the shift
fundamentally will turn to Mueller's conspiracy by the Deep State to overthrow Trump for being
an outsider.
As we have been warning, August should be a turning point and ideally the next will be October.
However, look closely and you will see we also have a Panic Cycle due at that time and volatility
building for November & December. Our Long-Term and Empirical Models are also lined up for
October. There are no immediate serious buy signals unless we close above 12100 today.
US Share Market - What's Going On

By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Last Week should have been an important turning point in the Dow, but perhaps it
reflected the reality of what is shaping up to be a Coup with the corruption of the
Deep State out to remove Trump from office. His former Lawyer NEVER gave
evidence against Trump, he was blackmailed by prosecutors to agree to plead to
whatever they said and he will not do jail time or get a very light sentence. They
more likely threaten to charge him with tax evasion. Handing money to some girl
does not violate campaign rules when Trump never raised money from the public
to begin with. So something is really underway here and last week may be the
shot that was heard around the globe. The media, which is now obviously being
orchestrated by Obama's former aids, is beside itself. Trumps polls did not drop
as they had hoped. The people do not see sleeping with a porn star to reflect
upon the qualifications to Drain the Swamp. (https://www.nbcnews.com/politi...)
As we move into month-end closing this Friday, we may be facing a critical
situation. We can see that technical resistance this week stands at 26290.56
26651.05 level. We really need to close the month above 26617 to suggest we are
moving higher into October. Such a move is complicated, for the indications are
broadly based and not confined to just the US share market. We must look at the
broader spectrum to see what is really developing. For the complex crisis in
Europe from Britain suffering from a Prime Minister in charge of BRXIT who
really voted to remain to Italy demanding changes to the structure of the ECB.
When we look at the Weekly Array, ideally last week should have provided the
turning point. However, we also had three Directional Changes back-to-back, two
Panic Cycles back-to-back with minor levels extending into the week of 09/10.
However, we also had the Empirical (fixed length) Cycles which disagreed and
pointed to this week. Then we have the Long-Term point to the week of 09/10
which aligns with both the Empirical and the top Summation. We then get these
three aligning again the week of 09/24.
Our Monthly Array had targeted August as a Directional Change with October,
November, and December as turning points. Thereafter, we see high volatility in
Feb and a turning point in March which is aligning with the period for BRXIT - be
it hard or soft.
The curious thing here is that we did elect a Weekly Bullish in the S&P500 on
Friday, but not the Dow. This is reflecting the split we had in the Dow Array
between the top line composite and the Empirical. However, it also is reflecting
that difference between domestic and international. It appears that the press is
beside themselves. They cannot understand why Trump's polls did not crash.
They were convinced that this coup would destroy him. Many domestic
institutions were calling to a major crash and what unfolded instead was short-
covering which forced the S&P500 up instead of down.
The S&P500 turning point was this week and the next targets will be the weeks
of 09/10, 09/24, and 10/15.
Keep in mind that the patterns between the S&P500 are different from the Dow
because the low there remains as February whereas the Dow low is April. This is
why we are getting slightly different cyclical patterns here as well and we must
look for the alignment between the two. Here we need a month-end closing
ABOVE 283600 on Friday to imply moving up into October.
When we compare the two Daily Arrays for this week, we can see that the 29th is
a target in time for this week. The S&P is also then pointing to Friday whereas in
the Dow we see that on the Empirical by 09/03 is the ideal target but the market
will be closed for Labor Day. Keep in mind that Labor Day Weekend is notorious
for producing highs. It did so in 1929 and countless other times on a seasonal
basis.
Much will be determined on Friday with the month-end closing.
The Euro For Month-End August

2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, August 23, 2018
The Euro has bounced back to retest the Monthly Bearish Reversal. This is
normal. However, we have also generated a potential Minor Monthly Bullish from
the low this month at 11429. This is interesting for with all the targeting against
Trump right now, if the the Euro finished the month ABOVE 11429, then we can
see the dollar pause into October with all the anti-Trump initiative taking place.
Therefore, the next turning point appears to be October. Given we have the Pi
target coming into play in November, a rally into October would most likely be
followed by a sharp decline there after into 2020.
So right now, it will be all the negative news about Trump. Keep in mind that a
sitting president has never been indicted and there is question whether that is
even possible. The only remedy would be impeachment. Bill Clinton was
impeached for PERJURY to the Grand Jury. They did not criminally charge him
where for that crime he would have served 5 years in prison. So this is really the
only outcome they can pursue but they will probably try to indict him and take it
to the Supreme Court to decide if a sitting president can be indicted. Then there
is the Republicans who may see this as a blow to their party. Consequently, we
can have some confusing days ahead and they posture for the November
elections.
The US Share Market for August
22nd, 2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, August 22, 2018
The political news coming out this week is likely to put the fundamental behind
the turning point we had this week anyhow. We have backed off penetrating
yesterday's low in the Dow and a lower closing may be enough to turn the market
back down. A close below yesterday's low will signal a more pronounced decline.
We have technical support at 25770 at at the time of this post we are trading at
25793. A closing beneath that level will also signal a retest of support.
We do not expect a breakout just yet. Only a Weekly Close above the 25801 level
would imply a further advance.
In reality, there has been a serious plot to take down Trump from this inside. The
bureaucrats hate his guts and they have been using the Department of Justice
against Trump along with the FBI. All the players are connected Rod Rosenstein,
Lisa H. Barsoomian, James Comey, Lois Lerner, and Robert Mueller. We have to
understand that this group with Clapper from the NSA, appear to be in a Deep
State plot to take control of government and hand it firmly back into the pocket
of bureaucrats. There is nobody in the press to come forward, so this is the
fundamental that can be used at times to keep the stock market in check briefly.
There is no substance to Stormy Daniels' issue. The only danger to Trump is
turning Michael Cohen into a rat who will say whatever the government tells him.
In prison, they hate rats. There are even groups of "rant hunters" would would kill
someone like Cohen just for sport.
S&P 500
By: Marty Armstrong
Nothing has changed. Our Weekly Bullish in the S&P 500 stands at 2873.85 and
we have reached 2873.23 at the time of this writing. Both the Dow and the
NASDAQ have not reached their respective previous highs. At this time, we still
see this week as the target. In the S&P500 on our weekly timing models has
three Directional Change targets starting next week all back-to-back. The Dow
has reached the Weekly Bullish Reversal level as well. A closing below 2863 on
the S&P500 on Friday will signal that we are losing the upward momentum.
The markets are still posturing for the turning point come the election period and
the Pi Target on the ECM. Maintaining a closing today above 2863.50 today will
signal we can still see a high form tomorrow.
Dow Jones Industrials for Week of

August 20th, 2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Saturday, August 18, 2018
If we look at the Array on the Empirical level, we see a turning point on Monday
and Wednesday. The top line is the sum of all models and that tends to favor
Wednesday. We also see that volatility should begin to rise on Wednesday
generally into the end of the month. The main resistance will remain at the
Weekly Bullish Reversal at 25801 level. We also have technical resistance
starting at the 25825 level followed by 26127 and 26682 areas. Support lies at
the 24541 and 24172 levels below the market.
There is still a reasonable shot that this week produces a temp reaction high. We
have Directional Changes coming into play for three weeks all bacl-to-back
warning that this is going to get choppy into Labor Day.
Dow Jones Industrial for Close

August 17th, 2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Saturday, August 18, 2018
We are still looking at next week as the target for a turning point. Since we
elected a minor Daily Bullish Reversal yesterday, it appears that we may be
looking at a high. Keep in mind that the Weekly Bullish is still at 25801. So ONLY
a closing above that today would imply new record highs next week. Otherwise,
we can still see next week exceed this week's high as close as we maintain a
closing above 24900. We do have another Daily Bullish at 25635, and we are
trading at the 25700 level. So a close above at least this will imply a continue
rally into next week. We can see that technical resistance stands at 26113.57
next week. So we are NOT expecting a runaway market to the upside at this time.
That area can provide the technical resistance for any high next week. A closing
below 24345 will imply we will retest support before moving higher.
We will post this weekend the Daily Array for Next week.
The Dow & the Turkey Crisis

By: Marty Armstrong
In the Dow, we still see next week as a turning point. Currently, the Dow is
trading at 25301 at the time of this post. We need a closing above 25635 to imply
new highs, but a closing above 25432 to stabilize. A closing beneath 25052 will
will signal a resumption of the decline.
Keep in mind that in dollars the Dow seems bullish but lethargic. When we look
at the Dow through the eyes of world currencies, it is breaking out to the upside.
This is one of those times that foreign investors make more than domestic
because we are dealing with a currency crisis and a flight to the dollar that the
dollar-haters just cannot wrap their heads around.
Keep in mind that it is IMPOSSIBLE to get a major collapse in the US share

markets when there is a crisis in the world economy that results in a flight to the
dollar. All the banks that have been coming out forecasting the collapse of the
US share market are looking only at domestic issues and rising interest rates.
They lack the global models and this is what makes all the difference.
This is the Weekly Array generated last month. We can see that we have a block
of Directional Changes which have been keeping the market choppy, but next
week is the strongest target during August. The volatility rises again the week
after Labor Day and that is when we end the Directional Change block as well.
If next week produces a low, then we may see a very serious development
starting in September for the world economy. A high would tend to imply a
correction perhaps into October still. So let's pay attention. The consolidation we
forecast would end with the summer.
Turkey Crisis Broadens to Europe &

Euro
By: Marty Armstrong
Claudio Borghi of Italy is not real popular in Brussels right now for they feel he
spilled the beans warning that the ECB must support the bond market of the
Eurozone will break apart. I have been warning that Draghi has kept the 28
member union together only on life-support. Stopping QE will expose Europe to
the reality that a single currency DOES NOT mean a single interest rate for all.
The Euro has continued to fall dropping at the time of this post to 11343. The
bottom of this channel on the daily level lies at the 11315 area. Our Weekly Break
Line lies at 11332 and a closing beneath this warns that the Euro may fall to the
NEXT Weekly Bearish Reversal which lies at 11165. Break that level and we are
then looking at a test of the 10500 area. We also have 11553 as a Monthly
Bearish. The fact that this same number appears on our radar in Daily, Weekly,
and Monthly, stressed just how significant this number was. Our next Monthly
Bearish lies at 10523 so this is confirming that after 11165, we have thin air.
Turkey has been the lynch pin as we have been warning and it would be the first
to collapse in the main Emerging Market sector. Foolish banks and pension funds
simply assumed that government would NEVER default and the IMF would
prevent such events. That is absolutely bullshit!!!!!!!! The IMF cannot prevent this
crisis from unfolding. The markets and the people have simply lost all confidence
in the Turkish government. Erdogan appears to have gone to Qatar asking for
financial help and was turned away. He can pretend to be the rising star that will
restore the glory of the former Ottoman Empire all he wants in his own mind.
That will NEVER become reality.
I have warned that we were entering the crisis phase. We do have a Daily Bearish
Reversal at 11313 and a close below this could result in the test of the 11100
area. We have a Directional Change due tomorrow. A closing below 11313 today
may signal a low due tomorrow so stay nimble. It is not likely that we would
move below the 11165 area.
Keep in mind many European banks and pension funds bought Turkish debt to get
20% interest returns BECAUSE the ECB maintained its QE.
The Dollar Rally

By: Marty Armstrong
Sunday, August 12, 2018
The dollar-haters have not given up. They are out there beating their drums that
the dollar rally cannot be sustain be they just the currency traders or the gold
and cryptocurrency players. What is most interesting is that even Bitcoin took a
nose dive of Friday. It has held up better than gold, but a break of the first Weekly
Bearish Reversal there at 582385 will be a sign that the entire spectrum is giving
way. What people seem to overlook is that this not just about currency. I have
warned that Turkey would be the first in the Emerging Market Crisis to go. There
were many banks who rushed in to buy their paper a month ago at 20%. They
took the position that countries really do not default. What they failed to grasp
was the degree to which Turkey was entering the complete collapse in
CONFIDENCE within its own borders that results in hyperinflation.
Then we have those who dismiss the debt crisis in China and Japan saying they
owe the money to themselves. That is the standard sales-pitch governments have
used all along to create national debts. It really DOES MATTER regardless of who
is buying the debt. Even a wholly floated domestic debt default destroys an
economy because money is still changing hands. The borrower gain and the
lenders lose. This under today's situation wipes out the retired and pension
funds. That leads to civil unrest so it really does not matter who they owe the
money to. If it is offshore, that has historically led to war, but domestic defaults
leads to civil unrest.
When we run our correlations, it just seems that volatility will be on the rise
starting next wee. The interesting aspect is that even Bitcoin is starting to
correlate with everything else and seems to be in a declining position on the
opposite side of the dollar as we find in gold and the currencies. This is tending
to impress the fact that we are looking at a dollar rally that is far broader than
most would suspect, including Donald Trump.
The Euro closed at 114.14 on cash well below the Weekly and Monthly Bearish
Reversals at the 11553 level. Hence, we have now elected all FOUR Weekly
Bearish Reversals from the high made back in February.Now only a Weekly
Closing back above the 17770 area will save the euro. This leave some room for a
bounce while our NEXT Weekly Bearish lies at 11165 and then it is time to turn
out the lights.
Gold previously elected all FOUR Weekly Bearish Reversals from the April
high.This leaves us looking at 1194.50 area and a weekly closing beneath that
will also start to scream DOLLAR RALLY!!!! We close at the end of August in gold
below this number an the Euro below 11553, it will be October here we come.
The A$ took out all FOUR Weekly Bearish Reversals as well. The political
nonsense going on Downunder certainly does not help. The stronger the dollar
gets, the higher the probability that Trump will just escalates the tariff issues.
That proves I do NOT advise Trump for those who keep saying that nonsense. He
has NOT invited me to the White House to talk about anything.
I have warned that our computer has been projecting a dollar rally and that is the
ONLY way to crack the monetary system that will force a reset. Bitcoin can't do
that despite all the claims of those who are trying so hard to convince others
ONLY because they are long up to their eyeballs. NO ANALYST can do a good job
when he has a vested interest in the outcome of the forecast. That is the entire
purposed behind Socrates. It has no accounts.
We must understand what is at stake here is not just the dollar. This is entangled
with geopolitical risks that are rising rapidly. Turkey will turn against the West
before Erdogan will ever relinquish power voluntarily.
Eu Crisis Building
By: Marty Armstrong
We have to come to grips with the blunt fact that the design of the Euro is
placing the entire world economy at risk. The EU policies of austerity and forcing
depression upon Europe and the proof of that is 10 years of Greece under the
control of Brussels. Their GDP growth is less than 1% and the people are
punished for the corruption of their former politicians and Goldman Sachs. Every
indication warns that Italy is about to plunge the Euro and the EU into a major
and catastrophic crisis. Italy is heavily over-indebted and the new government is
in the process of dramatically increasing public expenditure. I have state before
that the conversion of past national debts to the Euro by Greece, Italy, Spain and
Portugal has driven Southern Europe into economic disaster combined with the
policies of austerity which have magnified the deflation.
The very same experts in the EU have not altered their theories and they are
demanding to rehabilitate Italy in the very same manner that they have
destroyed Greece. I have just returned from Europe. The very same strategy is
now being prepared to be applied to Italy. All one needs to do is look at Athens
and we will see the same economic devastation in Italy. In this case, It does not
appear that the Italians will be as obedient as the Greeks. The Italian economy is
far better than its reputation because the Italians are masters at ignoring
government. Nonetheless, the people are not about to allow their country, which
they already see as occupied by Brussels, follow the same course as Greece,
A weekly closing BELOW 11553 may signal the beginning of the end. This is the
third time the Euro is testing the mid 115 level.Likewise, a Monthly closing below
11553 will tend to confirm the Euro will move down to retest the par level. We
can see that there is technical support at the 11385 level, but after that, we have
a large gap to the 10780 area then 10121.
KEEP in mind, that the capital flows are shifting to the USA. We may even see a
cycle inversion in the US share market if the July high is exceeded. We do not
see any hope of saving Europe. This will take a major reversal in political
attitudes in Europe. That may take place with the departure of Merkel and the
rise of the AfD in Germany. But even then, we are looking at a major crisis before
anyone will realise that something has to be changed.
Euro 11553
By: Marty Armstrong
The number in the Euro is 11553 on a Weekly and Monthly Basis
Dow Jones Industrial July 26th,

2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, July 26, 2018
The Dow keeps pushing higher to test the critical level of 25800 trading at the
time of this post at 25559. Keep in mind that this is a Weekly Bullish Reversal.
Nevertheless, the Directional changes start next week warning of a choppy
period ahead. We still do not see this bull market coming to an end. Still, July
remains a point in time and it remains possible to press downward in a
consolidation following July for 2-3 months.
We closed above the Daily Bullish yesterday which has given us the rally today.
The resistance on a closing basis begins at the 25520 level, which we have
exceeded intraday. We can see that tomorrow is the next target in TIME and we
also have a Directional Change. Note that volatility will turn up next week and
07/31 will be a target we need to pay attention to. The Monthly Bullish Reversal
to be concerned about stands at 26620. So unless that is elected, then we still
should see a July high form temporarily.
We can see that we are not yet clear of overhead resistance. The Downtrend Line
would now need to provide future support and if that unfolds for the balance of
this quarter, then we may see the Dow simply run away to the upside.
This is what the Weekly Array looks like. Note that the Directional Changes begin
next week and we see sharply higher volatility during the weeks of 08/06 and
09/03. The cluster of Directional Changes are also indicating choppiness ahead
rather than a trend per se in one direction.
This is part of the market's consolidation period. We will be doing a more in-
depth report on a video soon.
The Dow Jones Rally July 24th,
2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
The Global Market Watch was correct in call it a low with a correction for two
days from the high of the 18th. We warned that after the 18th, the next target
would be this week on the 23rd/24th. The market held the support at 24800 and
we still see 25800 as the key number where we must close above on a weekly
basis to breakout. At the time of this post, the Dow is trading at 25272. The
downtrend line we need to close above id 25236.30 and we have a Daily Bullish
at 25403. The mail Weekly Bullish stands at 25800 level with a minor at 2508650
while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2410123. A daily closing now back
below 25050 will warn of a retest of support.
We still see July as a possible reaction high with a retest of support into
September/October. November can be a wild time. That is why we also planned
the WEC in the midst of this chaos.
The overwhelming majority fear a trade war and/or rising interest rates. Many
mutual funds have liquidated positions on those fears yet the market has held
despite all the selling. This means that they will be forced to buy new highs and
we are NOT at the end of this Bull Market. Yes, it is possible that the
consolidation would extend into 2020. All that will do is extend the cycle and
make it far more explosive on the upside where the end game goal line will be
the most extreme target in the 65,000 level. Keep in mind that the rise in taxes
has been systemic. Governments NEVER look long-term. All they do is look at
what they need right now with no long-term consideration. The EU and IMF are
pushing itself to triple its inheritance taxes which will cause a total collapse in
real estate and further undermine the banking system. They will not review this
austerity policy which was directed by Germany because of its fear of
hyperinflation. Europe was suppose to kill the dollar. The have succeeded in not
just failing to beat the US economy, they have fallen now even to third place
behind China. Trump will have his hands full as the dollar rises on the failure of
everyone else.
Dow Jones for Week of July 16th

By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, July 18, 2018
The risk that this week can present the July high remains intact. The
Weekly Bullish Reversal stands at 25800 and that is what we need to close above
to keep the rally moving. But the consolidation people is not complete. We still
see the risk of the market declining to retest the breakout support going into
October. We will be preparing a special video for those who took the Share
Market Report. The key daily target this week is today the 18th followed by the
23rd/24th. A daily closing back below 24800 will warn that a retest of support is
likely.
The June Closings 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, July 2, 2018
The Dow closing for June (2nd Quarter) came in at 24271.41 which was actually
higher than the 1st quarter closing of 24103.11. Nonetheless, the intraday low did
take place during the 2nd quarter. We warned that a June closing under 24740
will be an indication of weakness. We closed below that number, which is a
warning that we can still make a 2-quarter reaction low. We also warned that as
we head into July, support will be in the 23300 level. The major support during
the 3rd quarter remains unchanged at 22415. Nevertheless, the market can still
move lower into July. We have higher volatility showing up and a Directional
Change for the month. A low in July may therefore be followed by a summer rally
into September as long as we hold the key Bearish Reversals below. A weekly
closing BELOW 23251 will signal a test of the monthly support zone. This week
can provide a low if we we can test the 23250 level by Wed or Thurs. Caution is
warranted this week.
In gold, we warned that a closing below the May low of 1281 on the nearest
futures will also signal weakness. Gold closed June at 1254.50 leaving gold still
pointing lower. Resistance in gold will stand during July at the 1309-1311 level
with initial resistance at 1289 with support at 1235-1238 and 1214. A penetration
of the 1235 area on a closing basis will warrant a retest of the 1214 area to 1200.
A breach of the 1200 level points to a further decline to 1141.
In the cash Euro, we warned that a closing below 119 would keep the dollar in a
strong position and the euro weak. We do have a Minor Monthly Bearish at
11662.which held since June closed at 11686. Nevertheless, key support during
July lies at the 11450-11430 level. Resistance is moving down to the 11850 to
11900 level. It remain critical that 11550 holds if if that gives way, the we can see
the euro retest the 10341 low made back during January 2017. The biggest
target appears to be next January 2019.
Monthly Closing for June 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, June 29, 2018
A closing today in the Dow under 24740 will be an indication of weakness, but as
we head into July, support will be in the 23300 level. In gold, a closing below the
May low of 1281 on the nearest futures will also signal weakness. Resistance in
gold will stand during July at the 1309-1311 level with initial resistance at 1289
with support at 12 35 and 1214. In the cash Euro, a closing below 119 keeps the
dollar in a strong position. We do have a Minor Monthly Bearish at 11662.Support
during July lies at the 11450-11430 level.
The US Share Market & the 43 Year
Consolidation Target
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, June 25, 2018
QUESTION: How did you know that January would be a high and we would
consolidate here in 2018. Nobody made such a forecast. I am curious if you can
answer than question without revealing the dark secrets of the world.
DH
ANSWER: It is never one single model. It is ALWAYS the combination of models

and then correlations of markets. You cannot forecast a single market in
isolation. There are some markers that are more of alerts. For example, the last
major low was 1974. That means that 2017 was 43 years up from that very
important event which began the Phase Transition up and the start of the
markets beginning to respond to the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1971. AT the
very least, that was a warning that we can see a pause in the uptrend which can
even be a consolidation for 2 years into 2020 before the trend explodes to the
upside. The Reversals will dictate that possibility.
There is a Minor Weekly Bearish Reversal at 24605 which we are trading below
and this week was a Directional Change. The more important Weekly Bearish lie
at 24386 and 24100. These are the numbers we must pay attention to for if they
go, then we will test the Monthly Bearish. However, because we have not elect a
Monthly Bearish already, this CONFIRMS we are dealing with a consolidation and
NOT a major high in the long-term trend. It simply warns we need to be patient
and go with the numbers.
The 1974 event was a FALSE MOVE to get everyone bearish and then the Phase
Transition began. We have exceeded the 2017 high intraday and if 2018 closes
low, then we are indeed in an extended consolidation probably into 2020.
However, this would simply reset the Phase Transition and we would be looking
for an incredible price explosion into the 2025/2026 time period. That would
certainly warn of the currency reset.
Euro for Close 2nd Q 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Saturday, June 23, 2018
We avoided the Weekly Bearish Reversal once again for the close of the week of
06/18. Now we approach the closing for June 2018 and thus the 2nd quarter. Here
we have technical resistance at 12570 followed by 13324. We had elected two
Quarterly Bullish Reversals, but #3 and #4 remain in the 130 zone. Now we have a
Minor Quarterly Bearish at 12025 so this will be our focus for the closing of this
week. A closing below that number on Friday 29th will warn that the first quarter
high may stand.
The Monthly Bearish Reversals stand at 11660 and 11553. Naturally, a closing
beneath both will be excessively bearish. A closing below just 11660 will be
bearish but warn that the Euro can consolidate still during the 3rd quarter.
Likewise, a closing ABOVE 11660, will also warn of a continued 3rd quarter
consolidation and a closing ABOVE 12027 will warn we can still test the
overhead resistance in the 128-129 level. We also have a Monthly Bullish standing
at 12885. A closing ABOVE that will then point to a test of the Quarterly Bullish in
the 13600 zone.
Because we have back-to-back Directional Changes for June and July, this is why
we have not elected the 11553 Weekly Reversal and may not do so at the end of
the week once again since that is also a Monthly Bearish. Given the Directional
Change also here in July, this warns we could retest resistance again dragging
this painful resolution of the Euro out longer. A July reaction high that fails to
close above 12885, and closes below 12025 will imply we may have a 2 month
reaction high from the May low and turn back down into the October time period.
The week of 07/09 should be the next turning point week and this could be a high
given the failure to closing below 11553.
The Dow for the Close of June 22,

2018
By: Marty Armstrong
The Dow has come under pressure with all the talk of a trade war which really
does not matter much in the grand scheme of things, but at the time of this post,
the Dow is trading at 24461.7 and has come more under pressure for the rise in
the dollar which at first it should remain confused as is the case with rising
interest rates. The talking heads will all get worked up into a lather about trade
but that is really still a small percentage of the whole. If we allocate trade
according to the flag each company flies, then the USA has a $1.4 trillion trade
surplus since its high flying multinationals rack up the business overseas just
like Apple or Microsoft including even ourselves.
There is a Minor Weekly Bearish Reversal at 24605, but the more important
Weekly Bearish lie at 24386 and 24100. These are the two numbers to really
watch. The Monthly Bearish lie at 22415 and 21600. Any prolonged correction
requires a monthly closing beneath both.
July has been a target month for some time. The two key weeks will be 07/02 and
07/16. Ideally, these should produce opposite effects and the latter is also a
Panic Cycle. Next week is a Directional Change so watch these Reversals for the
close today.
The Consolidation is not year over. We have to wait until we come out of the
summer.
Gold for the Close of the Week of

June 22, 2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Gold continues to languish and its greatest battle is with the dollar. Even a trade
war means that the dollar rises for it will be far worse on everyone one else. That
said, we still lack the general public collapse in confidence and until that takes
place, gold remains vulnerable to the downside even going into 2021.
Nevertheless, at the time of this post gold is trading at 1269 and we have a
Weekly Bearish Reversal to watch at 1277. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish
at 1262.40 which comes into focus next week. The Major Monthly Bearish lies at
1214. Take that one out and we open the door to new lows with a strong dollar.
Technically, critical support lies at 1257. If this gives way, then expect some
panic selling.
The key week ahead is that of 07/02 and ideally we should see an opposite trend
for two weeks thereafter into the week of 07/16, which appears to be lining up
around the world in many markets. We see volatility rising the week of 07/16
going into August. The way this is showing up around the world, we could see
some political influence at that time.
Euro for the close of June 22, 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
The Euro has come under tremendous pressure and the dream of Euroland keeps
getting questioned. The counter-trend rally did its job for 57 week getting
everyone convinced the dollar was crashing and the euro would survive. The rally
was impressive and reached our minimum target of 124-125, but the Monthly
Bullish stood at 12885 and we had hoped we could have reach that far.
At the time of this post, the euro is trading at 11602. We are crawling along really
critical support for we have a Weekly and a Monthly Bearish Reversal here at
11553. The low in May came in at 11510 intraday. So here we are hovering over
this 11553 level. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish at 11660 so that has
tended to help cap any rally and a closing below that for June will confirm the
broader trend of strong dollar weak euro is in play.
Here too we see that volatility will rise the week of 07/16 going into August. We
see turning points 07/02-07/09. This appear to be getting interesting follow July.
For now, watch 11553 for the week close and then again for the June close next
week.
Euro Update 6-1-2018

By: Marty Armstrong
The Euro avoided both Monthly Bearish Reversals as hopes that Italy will remain
within the fold. A number of people have written in asking if Italy is listening to
our proposals. I cannot confirm or deny that. You never know. Yes it has been
common knowledge I fly to Brussels often and I have been suggesting that ONLY
a debt consolidation can hold the EU together right now.
The new Italian government does have in its ranks two Eurosceptic professors,
whose previous work, has scared many that the will push to exit the Euro. On the
other hand, the fears have subsided as the new Italian government of Lega and
the Five Star Movement are seen as more likely to try to push ahead with the
development of common Euro debt and Eurobonds.
The FAILURE to elect Monthly Bearish is a signal that this is buying time for the
real Crash & Burn is due off in the 2020-2021 period. The resistance now begins
at the 12030 area and 12560 followed by 12700. Only a monthly close ABOVE
12560 would raise any hope of creating a consolidation period for a few months.
To really change the trend to buy a lot more time requires a monthly closing
technically above the 12700 level. The Uptrend Line rests now at 11639. A breach
of that area will then cause the consolidation between 18800 and 11400 to
unfold.
Any way we slice this, the decline of the Euro is still the long-term projection into
the 2020-2021 time period
Dow Jones Industrial for Closing

May 31st, 2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, May 31, 2018
There is no shot at electing a Monthly Bearish Reversals, but we do have a Minor

Monthly Bullish at 24328 and we are trading at 24580 at the time of this post. We
are building a base a closing ABOVE the April high of 24858.97 will be a technical
bullish signal as well. A closing above 24328 will imply that we are starting to
firm up for the broader term.
Gold for the Closing May 31st, 2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Today, a closing below 1309-1310 will keep gold in a vulnerable position. This will
also warn that the dollar is still in a position to rally on a flight to quality. Next
month, this resistance will decline to the 1305 area. Even technically, gold is in a
position to retest the Downtrend Line at the 1150 zone.
The Euro for the Closing of May 31,

2018
By: Marty Armstrong
The Array has done a goo job in picking the low and calling for a 2-day bounce
into the 31st. Now the two Monthly Bearish Reversals are important for today's
closing which stand at 11553 & 11661. At the time of this post we are trading at
11660. If we close above 11661, then we will consolidate. A closing below will
provide a long-term signal where as a closing below 11553 will be very bearish
and a close below 11412 will signal the meltdown.
There is no way to fix this problem. The FDIC has now placed Deutsche Bank on
the list of "problem" banks and when that goes, it will continue to keep
undermining the confidence in Europe as a whole.
Euro Bounce
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
The Array shows that the 29th should have been a minor turning point this week
and then the next will be the 31st in the opposite direction. So far the meltdown
in the Euro has subsided. We have two Monthly Bearish Reversal coming into play
- 11553 & 11661. Keep in mind that this are long-term. To infer an immediate
meltdown, we need a closing below 11412. Closing above 11412 will suggest the
tone will firm modestly. We may now bounce into Thursday if we close higher
today. That is where 11661 will come into play. A high on the 31st to try to avoid
these Monthly Bearish Reversals is typical. But next week we can resume the
decline into June.
Major resistance during June will stand at 11920 level and support will still
remain in the 11460 are and 11225 zone.
Capital Fleeing to US Treasuries &

UK Gilts from Europe
By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
COMMENT: Marty; The cash is pouring into the Gilts here from euroland as you
call it. Absolutely an amazing forecast. There is not a single European analysts
who has understood this crisis and Socrates has been spectacular.
KEM
REPLY: It is amazing to me how wrong the fundamentalists always are. They

cannot ever see something right before their eyes. Yes, the gilts bottomed 3
months ago and have shown that they would rally into June and just putting all
the markets together it demonstrated it would be a Euro Crisis. We warned May
would be a serious turning point. Just follow the money flows.
The UK out of la la land is the VERY BEST THING for its people. The last time
these pro-European crazy people got their way, they conspired against Margaret
Thatcher, deposed her, and then took Britain into the ERM fixing the pound until
the system cracked. They blamed Soros for that. It was the politicians who
created the crisis just as they are trying to do once again keeping Britain in this
impossible dream they call Eurozone.
The Euro Crisis

By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
We are now trading at 11549, which is where we have both a Weekly Bearish and
a Monthly Bearish coming into plat 11553. In fact, in the monthly time level, we
also have another Monthly Bearish at 11661. If we elect BOTH of these Monthly
Bearish on this Thursday the 31st, we will have a confirmation that everything is
going to start melting down very rapidly. So stay tuned. We have a serious
CONTAGION unfolding.
The entire peripheral debt in Europe is experience a rapid rise in interest rates.
Draghi's worst nightmares are coming into reality.
The Array showed that the the Directional Change on Friday would turn to the
downside. The volatility models kicked in and the turning points thios week are
the 29th and then 31st. Then next week becomes interesting as well.
No is the time we begin to see the world economy pay the price of attempted
manipulation by the ECB and its complete failure. They Euro experiment has been
a disaster because they wanted a single currency, without any of the
responsibility for debt. Europe did invade the south, promised them a land of milk
& honey with only a single currency, and then impose Northern austerity upon
their cultures that produced 60% unemployment among the youth and then they
fostered an invasion of economic refugees that were mostly males.
We are witnessing the pains of deliberate political manipulation and the

assumption that power can force the future to unfold as they demand. Brussels is
beginning to bleed from their eyelids. This is far from over. It only gets worse
from here. There is NOBODY in Brussels willing to do what is necessary to save
Europe.
US Share Market Poised for New
Highs? The Dow Jones Industrials
& Russel 2000
By: Marty Armstrong
The US share market has held critical support and we have elected one Weekly
Bullish from the April low made the week of the 2nd. What is going unnoticed is
the rise to new highs by the Russell 2000 index which is a traditionally used as
the benchmark for mutual funds who classify themselves as small-caps. This
stands in contrast to the better known S&P 500 index which is used to
benchmark large capitalization stocks.
The Russell 2000 index is seen as a reflection of investment trends that view
opportunity presented by the entire market as a whole rather than more narrowly
defined indexes such as the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrials. The Russel
2000 is a broader perspective and from that standpoint, you will find that far
more mutual funds and ETFs are actually tied to or based on this index.
That said, The Dow is the leading indicator for big international money. That
peaked in January and the dollar bottomed in February against the Euro for
example. The NASDAQ Composite made a new high in March ahead of the
S&P500 and the Dow. Now we have the Russel 2000 starting to lead, This is
indicating what we have been warning about that with interest rates at historical
low manipulated levels, despite all the people calling for a stock market crash,
the danger lies in the bond markets. Hence, cash is flowing into the broader
equity market rather than bonds and this is a smart move since interest rates
will rise, it makes little to no sense to buy bonds.
We have a virtual Double Weekly Bullish Reversal in the Dow and if that is
elected, we should have our confirmation that the consolidation period we saw
for the first half of 2018 is coming to an end.
The geopolitical revelations continue to unfold as the computer has projected. It

did not see a war in Asia with Korea, but the crisis lies in the Middle East. North
Korea seems to have played out are we warned. Rocket-man needed an external
enemy to fend off a domestic revolution. By flexing his muscles, he gets all the
sanctions lifted by giving up nukes nobody really needs anyway. The guy who
would have been overthrown becomes the hero to his people by opening up the
borders. Brilliant strategy. The Middle East, however, is a religious confrontation
and Iran is not in the same weak position as North Korea. Turmoil there will send
capital fleeing to the dollar. So we still have some wild times ahead.
Now look at the patterns of these two indexes. Note that the Dow made virtually
a double bottom whereas the broader Russel 2000 made a V-Bottom. This
demonstrates that the capital flows were turning inward to the USA and that the
Dow would lead the way. Now we have a shift, with the domestic broader market
outperforming the big caps that are typically tracked by foreign capital. Despite
everything the press does to Trump, his tax reform has made a difference in the
domestic economy. You will never hear that from CNN, NY Times, or the
Washington Post. My "opinion" is that the press has absolutely destroyed the
office of the president for any future people who would have come forward. The
hatred hurled at Trump by CNN and crew guarantees only a career politician
would ever become president and that will ensure the downfall of the United
States and the shift in the Financial Capital of the World to China.
你好
Nǐ hǎo
Dow for the Closing of May 18th,

2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, May 18, 2018
The Dow is trading at the 24719 level at the time of this post. The Weekly Bullish
Reversal to watch stands at 25801 level. We are still in a consolidation mode.
There still does not appear to be any signs of a major crash in the stock market.
As the dollar rises, and interest rates begin to rise, the bond markets will crash.
There is no place to run BUT the equities when the question of sovereign debt
survivbility is at stake.
A Direction Change is now due and the next target wee will be that of 05/28, with
the more important target coming the week of June 11th, which is why we
selected the weekend on the end of that week for the WEC in Singapore. That
should keep things interesting.
24626 is the number to watch for the close. Above that will keep the Dow
position, whereas a closing beneath will warn its not going up just yet. Nextwee
we see resistance forming at 24950 level, so really a closing below that today
will also signal further sideways action.
Gold for the Close of May 18th,
2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Gold has crash and at the time of this post it is trading at 1291. We have panic
cycles in mid June and a Key target will be the week of June 11th.
A closing today below 1306 will be a warning that Gold is indeed breaking down
once again. It is unlikely that gold will hold-on if we see the dollar continue to
surge as political uncertainty engulfs Europe.
The main support is still at the 1265-1270 area. This is what we need to pay
attention to. Breaking that area will continue to put pressure on Gold into the
weeks ahead.
Resistance is now firming at the 1325-1330 area and 1337-1340 zone.

The Euro for the Close of May 18th, 2018
By: Marty Armstrong
The Euro elected the last Weekly Bearish Reversal at 11995. The next one lies at 11690. We are
currently trading at 11779 at the time of this post. We do show a Directional Change and the next
target is the week of May 28th with a Panic Cycle coming in mid-June.
Resistance is forming at the 12060 level followed by 12200-12300 and then 12400. We have to
understand that fundamentally the Euro has "headline" risk at this stage for the dictatorship
posture in Brussels is just not working. They are only concerned about their jobs and not the
welfare of Europe any more.
The critical support lies at the 11590 level and breaking that level will warn the Euro and the
confidence in the political system is under attack.
The monthly support lies at the 11715 level. Cracking that area will be a real warning.
The EURO - Has the Dollar Rally Begun?
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, May 7, 2018
We elected a Weekly Bearish on Friday in the Euro and we expect a low this week to form on a
temporary basis. This is May where we had warned high volatility would unfold during this
period. The technical support being at the 11876 level. This is what we need to watch to ascertain
if we go into a serious meltdown.
Look at the Daily level, we can easily see we broke the channel and the bottom of that has been
providing resistance in the 120 level. At the time of this posting, we are trading at 11909. Here
too, we can see that resistance on a technical basis is forming at the 11948 area.
We see Wednesday as a Directional Change. So this could form a temp low this week. But note
that the Directional Changes are back-to-back so expect choppiness going into the end of the
week.
The Daily Bullish Reversal generated from the low today so far stands at 12035. The important
Daily Bearish lies at 11888. We have a minor resting at 11750. These will be our guide-posts on
any crack of the 119 level.
The real critical support lies at the 11550 level on our Weekly Bearish Reversals system and we
can see that technical support lies at 11594. The Monthly Bearish also lies at the 15552 level so
this is where everything points. Breaking that area will signal the start of the dollar rally which
looks like it will peak in the 2020-2021 period. That will then force the crack in the world
monetary system.
For now, be on guard against a temp low this week. This will be confirmed if we close Friday
ABOVE 11838.
The Dow Jones Industrials

By: Marty Armstrong
The Dow at least made a new low during April so that qualified as a 3 month reaction on an
intraday basis but not on a monthly closing basis leaving March as the lowest monthly close. The
market is still trading based upon the decades of propaganda from the talking heads on TV that
higher interest rates are bearish. They have never looked at a chart with the two side by side.
The Weekly Bearish remains the underlying support to watch at 23250. We remain in a
consolidation period into June. We will be address that on a video for those who purchased the
Share Market Report.
The Dollar Rally

By: Marty Armstrong
The amazing level of bearishness in the dollar appears to have set the stage for a real blood-bath.
We have now reached May and the dollar has been rallying steadily. We have not yet elected a
Monthly Bearish Reversal in the Euro, which lies down at 11550, but we did elect a Weekly
Bearish. At this point we are flirting with the second Weekly Bearish at 11995.
With Italy unable to form a coalition government, the Five Star movement called for a snap
election in June. The government is ruling out a snap election because they know they will
lose.Here is the weekly Array into July. Both May and June are important targets and this will
probably bring about the end of the consolidation period we warned about for the first half of
2018.
This is also why we made the Singapore WEC for June. It is an important launch pad overall.
Now we have the possible Italian election if a stopgap government cannot come together. The
Five Star Movements ultimately wants to exit the Euro.
So for now, a weekly closing below 19995 will signal this is continuing and a monthly closing
below 11550 will warn that the dollar may begin to rise and that appears headed toward a major
high going into 2020/2021.
The Dow for the Close of 4/20/2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, April 20, 2018
Going into the closing today for 04/20, The Weekly Bearish is still down at the 23250 level.
However, we should begin to see volatility rise next week moving into mid-May. A closing
below 24682 will technically warn that we are poised to test support. A closing below 24300 will
tend to warn that we should move down to support next week.
Keep in mind that nothing has indicated that we are finished this consolidation period. This
appears to be the dominant trend into June. Keep in mind that the critical support does not come
into play until the 21000-22000 zone.
The Dow for the Close of the Week of April

2nd, 2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, April 5, 2018
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you said that the ideal low would be the 30th but since that was
closed it would spill into Monday. Your timing targets are an amazing road map to the future.
This week made a new low under February by a few points and it has rallied ever since Monday.
Where are the Daily and Weekly Bullish Reversals at this time?
HC
ANSWER: Next week is a Directional Change. As long as we close this week above 22920 then
it is still in a consolidation mode. The Daily Bullish Reversal stands at 25314 and we have a
Minor Weekly Bullish at 25450. Only a Weekly Closing below 23250 will suggest we will test
the monthly numbers in the mid 22000 zone. We see volatility rising going into the end of April
and May is an important turning point that is much more significant beyond stock markets. The
targets in time remain on track. Nothing has changed thus far.
Resistance will begin to now form in the 25200-25300 level. We must break through this area to
imply a sustainable rally.
As I previous warned, April is three months from the January high and this is the the last month
where we can make a low that conforms to a reaction. New intraday lows in May would signal
we could press lower into July.
Remember, that the market is showing us where it is going. We need just listen.
US Share Market
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, April 2, 2018
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have followed you since only since 2015. I bought the Dow back
in January 2016 at the 16450 level. I want to thank you for I have made a fortune just staying
out of gold and selling the Dow as you recommended at the end of January. I made 10,000
points. I sold that Monday when you posted that the high was in place and a correction would
start. You warned that February could remain as a knee-jerk low. I take it that nothing has
changed given the closing for March was neutral in the Dow but it produced the high in the
Nasdaq. You warned we could see a March high but that was not in the Dow. You said the Dow
could make a new low in April, but the two seem to be dancing around each other.
Thank you
SJ
ANSWER: From an investor perspective, nothing has changed. We closed the Dow in Feb above
the 24329 level and March proved to be just a consolidation retest which was much better than
producing a new high or a test of that high. The NASDAQ made its high in March so we are
witnessing the divergence I have warned about with each index reflecting a different group of
buyers.
The Dow is doing what the computer has warned that a consolidation period was likely for the
first half. We received no major sell signals even on the weekly level that would indicate a
serious correction was unfolding long-term. Technically, you could test the monthly numbers and
bounce off. But keep in mind that this would most likely be confined to a reaction period.
Reactions can take place with on an intraday basis or a closing basis. The fact that the NASDAQ
made its record high during March opens the door for a 3 month correction in that index moving
into June. That would be a 5 month correction from the Dow perspective.
Therefore, with April just penetrating the February low, this gives us TWO possibilities and that
will be determined by the REVERSALS. First, we can make the intraday low in April in the Dow
and then the Dow continues to be choppy and consolidate into June but not making significant
new lows beyond April. If the April low is breached during May, then we can see a continued
decline into June/July.
REMEMBER - it is always the REVERSLAS that confirm or deny trends. The NASDAQ has not
penetrated the Feb low and here in the Composite the Weekly Bearish to watch lies at 663067.
From an investor perspective, you want to follow ONLY the Weekly Reversals or higher. The
short-term trends flip back and forth and can get confusing if you are not a short-term trader.
The key is not even my commentary for no human will ever be correct all the time.
The NUMBERS are the NUMBERS and the model divides a market so you can see when the
trend is actually changing on different levels.
Investors should NEVER look at flipping their portfolio on short-term commentary. It is only my
job to lay out the possibilities basis the numbers. It is always the NUMBERS that define the
trend. There are also way too many markets to keep an eye on and the computer is much better
than me at that.
You do have to be disciplined. The hardest part of successful investing is to remove your
emotions as much as possible from the decision process.
The close of March - 1st Quarter Dow-Gold-

Dollar
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, March 29, 2018
What I have always found fascinating is just how the markets will avoid our Reversals when they
are just not ready to rally or collapse. While the Monthly Bullish in gold has still not been elected
since 2015 running right up to the number numerous times and then failing, it has been doing the
very same compelled avoidance on the Quarterly Bullish Reversal at 1347. We have been above
this number even bu $30, yet when it comes to the end of ever quarter, gold crashes to avoid our
Reversal. Today is nothing new. Once again, we were well above it 3 days ago and have crashed
trading right now at 1327.30. This is once again YELLING LOUDLY at us that hey - stupid -
we are not ready yet! Get over it!.
The Silver low also remains also the 4th quarter 2015.Here we are nowhere close to a Quarter
Bullish which stands up at 21.65. The Quarterly Bearish Reversal lies at 15.40 while we are
trading at 16.27.
When we look at the Dow, we are currently trading at 24095. Here a bullish closing technically
requires a number above 24880 and we have a minor Quarterly Bearish Reversal still at 20375.
So once again, a closing between those two numbers leaves the market neutral.Technical
resistance stands at 21529.34.
The Euro is trading at 12288 and here too the dollar is neutral. The Quarterly Bullish stands up at
13900 and the Bearish lies at 11660.
There are no indications of a meltdown based on these numbers. As previously forecast, this still
appears to be a consolidation period for the first half of the year.
The Dow for the week of 03/26/2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, March 26, 2018
This week we see choppiness with the two main days being tomorrow the 27th and ideally the
30th on Friday. However, the market is closed on the 30th being it is Good Friday. We did not
elect the key Weekly Bearish Reversal which remains at 23250. Had we elected that one, then we
should expect immediate follow-through. We can bounce into tomorrow and then turn down into
next week. Creating a low the week of 04/02 would ideally bounce thereafter.
It does appear that we should test the monthly support level 22415. The question becomes when,
the week of 04/02 or at the end of the month. A rally into next week would then imply a
declining trend into the end of the month and that could spill-over into May intraday but then
rally leaving April as the lowest close.
For now, the Daily Bullish Reversals generated from Friday's low stands above the market at
24805. We do not expect that to be elected. This just illustrates how far up the market must move
to generate a buy signal at this time.
We will be addressing the issue in a video shortly after the close of March for those who
purchased the share market report.
Silver for the close of March

By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, March 26, 2018
Silver had elected two Quarterly Bearish Reversals from the major high in 2011
and stopped also on the third leaving 1315 as the MAJOR support in this market.
Obviously, a quarterly closing beneath that level will allow a test of the $10 level.
But the lowest quarterly closing was $13.80 and believe it or not, the actual low
for silver was $13.62 which is the major number on the upside in gold $1361.40.
Most curious.
The important number on the upside is $18.90. A monthly and quarterly closing
above this number will signal that we are start to move to the upside to test the
major numbers at $21.63 and $23.10. The equivalent to the breakout number of
significant is $21.63.
The support for the close of March lies at $15.90. A closing beneath that would
be bearish.
We are publishing the 2018 Precious Metals Reports in April after the first
quarter closing. We are starting the Monetary Crisis Cycle this year which will
start to heat up from May onward. Because of this significance we have
produced this in two separate report covering gold and silver providing guidance
for these metals in all major currencies so you can easily see the Monetary
Crisis and how it is unfolding.
Providing a global perspective in a variety of currencies provides a glimpse of

how the currencies differ greatly. This reflects the hedge value the metals have
against their respective currencies and the governments behind them. Some
countries should be buyers based upon their currencies while in others we are
not there yet.
The US Share Market
By: Marty Armstrong
Sunday, March 25, 2018
The Dow crashed on Friday falling right down to our Minor Weekly Bearish
Reversals. We will be doing a Video update this week for those who purchased
the Share Market Report. We can see that the Energy Models has been declining
and the Oscillators are also in a bearish position confirming the overall trend.
The next target week will be that of 04/02 following Easter. Thereafter, the next
target will be week of 04/23 where we see high volatility. Keep in mind that
reactions are limited to three time periods so April presents that opportunity for
a penetration of the February low and a test of the monthly support levels.
Our Quarterly timing models have been correct that the 1st quarter was a Panic
Cycle, with the 2nd quarter being a turning point. Therefore, we have a
reasonable shot at buying this market again against the monthly support during
April.
If we hold last week's low, we will bounce modestly into the week of 04/02 and
then turn south once again into the end of the month. Of course the
fundamentals will be rising interest rates and trade wars. A break of last week's
low could produce the extreme low for this move the week of 04/02. Otherwise,
hold tight.
Dow Update for the Close of this

03/23
By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, March 23, 2018
The week of 03/19 has arrived. We had two Directional Changes back-to-back and
last week produced a high exceeding the previous week's high and this week we
have broke last week's low. At the time of this post, the Dow is trading at
23914.84. The technical perspective for this week shows 24349 is where the
original Breakout Line resides so a closing beneath that still reflects near-term
weakness. The market is doing pretty much as expected - consolidation for the
first half of 2018. The Downtrend Line offers technical resistance at 25310 level
and support lies at the 23248 level. The major technical support lies at 22410.
We do have a MINOR Weekly Bearish Reversal at 23545, but the main one
remains at 23250. Our What-IF models imply that only a closing below 22417.50
would signal a MELTDOWN. Closing above that today infers that we are still in a
consolidation mode. Indeed, the major support will remain at the 22405 level on
our system with technical support at 22410 so both models agree on where the
serious support lies.
As long as we close March at the end of next week BELOW 24740, then
consolidation should continue. A closing above 23486 for March will continue to
warn that we are not in a meltdown risk mode.
The next two MAJOR targets in Time are May, which has a minor Panic Cycle,
and July, which shows up as big volatility.
Congress stuck in the budget very quietly a bill to bailout 200 pensions plans.
They are becoming aware of the real problems. It does not appear that Draghi
will be able to get out the door in 2019 BEFORE the Crisis begins to hit. We are
looking at an intense period beginning this year.
US Share Market for the Close

3/9/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, March 9, 2018
The NASDAQ elected all four Weekly Bullish from the February low so we have it
making new highs. The Dow is flirting again with the 25300 former Weekly Bullish
it elected and a closing above 25315 today will keep the market in a position
where we can still test resistance.
We have NOT elected any Monthly Bearish and we have not elected any serious
Weekly Bearish holding the third Reversal back at 23250. A Weekly closing above
26154 will signal we will challenge the January high of 26616.71.
Keep in mind we are still within a Cycle Inversion. That means the last three
events produced highs instead of alternating events. If March produced a high,
even just a retest in the Dow, then obviously the Cycle Inversion is still in play.
The Energy Models continue to rise and this is not implying a serious correction.
February may have been simply a Knee Jerk Reaction Low. A correction would
extend any consolidation/retest of the lows to April MAX!. Only electing the third
Weekly Bearish in the Dow would imply of a max decline into July.
So far, we play by the numbers ONLY. We have nothing to suggest a decline is yet
underway. As stated previously, the first HALF of 2018 appeared to be choppy
consolidation. We do not yet see this market runny away to the upside just yet.
It does appear that the important turning point will be July and the second half
of the year we should begin to see the trend emerge. Interest rates are still
poised to move sharply higher. This will add confusing, but they will be the
catalyst for change. German rates are still negative on the bunds and this is
really just a bet against the Euro where they expect to get Deutsche marks. That
trade will not work out. The trade will remain the move to the dollar.
Dow Jones for 3/7/2018

By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
AT the time of this post, the Dow is trading at 24,701. We have a Minor Daily
Bearish at 24421, but the key support lies at the 23360 area. We see Friday
with a bit more volatility, but the key weeks remain 03/19 as a MINOR target and
the more important target is the week of 04/02. Strategic months remains March,
May and July.
A closing today above 24595 will keep the market is a neutral position. Support
will lie at the 24442 level into Thursday with resistance at 25200.
Dow After the Close March 1st

2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, March 1, 2018
Technically, we can see that broad uptrend channel lies beneath the market at
23081.78. The short-term uptrend channel top stands at 25119.50 which will
move up to 25384.01 for March. This will become the pivot point to watch on a
closing basis.
We still see volatility on the high side going into March, which has been reflected
already in the first day of trading. The key support now lies at 24328. We are
trading back below the January low of 24741.70, which is an indication of
weakness.
We did elect the first Daily Bearish at 25942. We have a Daily Bearish Reversal at
24790 followed by 23849. The Weekly Bearish lies at 23,250, which we bounced
off of during February.
February was marked by Panic Cycles the weeks of the 19th, 26th, and next
week 03/05. These have been declining in intensity with the week of the 19th the
most, and next wee just moderate.
We must keep in mind that if the February low holds, then a Cycle Inversion may
still be in process headed into a May high. If we elect a Monthly Bearish at the
end of March, then this would imply a May low.
We also previously warned that a Daily closing below 24884 would imply a retest
of the top of the Broader Channel back at the 23081 area.
Tomorrow will be critical. As previously states, a simple "closing at the end of

this week below 25974 will imply we should retest support before moving higher."
A closing tomorrow below 25430 will suggest that this will be resistance next
week and support lies at 24100. A break of the February low implies a move
down to the 22000-21700 zone.
We still see consolidation into the week of 03/12 with the key target there after
shaping up as the week of 04/02.
Between tariffs and rising interest rates, this is the fundamental excuse for the
correction. Naturally, that is really nonsense, but they always need to assign a
fundamental to try to explain every move logically.
US Share Market for Close of

February
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
The US share market's primary goal in life is to defeat whatever the majority
believes and that can change even daily. As previously warned, this was by no
means set up to be a 1987 Crash. The reversals were just not set up that way.
Technically, we can see that broad uptrend channel has not been reached and
the top of that channel rests at 22957.32 for February. This will move upward into
March reaching 23081.78. The short-term uptrend channel top stands at 25119.50
which will move up to 25384.01 for March. This will become the pivot point to
watch on a closing basis.
February was a Panic Cycle and a turning point. While we still see volatility on
the high side going into March, As long as we close ABOVE 24328, then the
broader trend points higher into March. Technically, weakness would be
indicated by a close below the January low of 24741.70, but that is NOT a
Reversal - only a technical point to watch.
March will have support underlying the market at the 24880 level. We must keep
in mind that if the February low holds, then a Cycle Inversion may still be in
process headed into a May high.
At this point, a Daily closing below 24884 would imply a retest of the top of the
Broader Channel back at the 23081 area.
A closing at the end of this week below 25974 will imply we should retest
support before moving higher.
We still see consolidation into the week of 03/12. So we are not running away to
the upside just yet. After that week, then we may see a trend emerge into May,
Dow for the Week of February 26th,

2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Sunday, February 25, 2018
Friday elected a minor Weekly Bullish Reversal closing above 25300. Of course,
the next Daily Bullish stands just above the market at 25521 and resistance this
week will be at 25975 and 26155. The next Weekly Bullish stands at 26154 and a
closing above will signal a breakout once again. We now need a closing above
25521 to keep the short-term momentum moving.
Look at our Energy Models. We are starting to breakout to new highs. This is not
implying a major high at this time but that higher highs are on the horizon.
Caution is now required for last Week was the Directional Change and we turned
up with this week a turning point and a Panic Cycle warning we can move in both
directions.
Month-End closing will be Wednesday. Here if we close higher than January
26149.39, then this will imply a March high and once again we will have a
continued Cycle Inversion. The primary technical resistance stands at 26422.55
for month-end closing and a February close ABOVE that will signal a BREAKOUT.
It is important to approach this by the Reversal System. At the low, the market
elected a Minor Weekly Bullish. Everything in life takes place for a reason so we
must always discount personal expectations since the object of markets is
always to defeat what people expect.
As stressed in the Vertical Market Report, we often get Cycle Inversions during
real Vertical Market moves. September, November and January all produces highs
instead of opposite trend turning points. Now if March ALSO exceeds the January
high, this same Inversion process is underway.
This means that May is the biggest target for the first half of the year. Ideally, a
March high implies a May low. However, exceeding the March high in April will
once again confirm a Cycle Inversion in which case we should expect a May high.
Keep in mind that we have some resistance in this 25000-28000 zone and after
that it jumps to 32990. A Quarterly closing for March above 26641.17, will confirm
a serious breakout is underway. What we laid out in the Share Market Report will
come into play.
Gold for the Close of Feb 23rd

By: Marty Armstrong
Friday, February 23, 2018
We have an important Daily Bearish Reversal at 1313.20 which is showing up as a

Double. We also have a Weekly Bearish at 1316.20 and the Weekly Bullish is now
also 1362.40. This is obviously a critical area to watch for gold keeps knocking
on our Monthly Bullish at 1362.40 but has been unable to push through it since
the low of 2015. We will also have a Quarterly Bullish at the 1346 level for the end
of March. If we fail to elect that one as well as the Monthly, then gold has some
more work to do on the downside.
We have back-to-back Directional Changes starting next week with the main
target in mid-March for a turning point.
Resistance for the closing of the 23rd starts at 1325, 1330, and 1355. Support
lies at 1295 followed by 1255.
Dow for the close of February 23rd

By: Marty Armstrong
Tomorrow, we have intraday resistance at 24932 to 24950 followed by 25150-

25200 and support forming at 24880 and 24590 and a break of that will signal a
retest of support. The Weekly Bullish is still active at 25300 and a close above
that will signal a rally next week. The Weekly Bearish lies at 23250 and electing
that will signal a March low.
As you can see, although we penetrated into the uptrend channel, we have yet to
close within it on a weekly basis. Nevertheless, a failure to closed above 25300
for the week of the 19th implies we may move back down to test support over the
next three weeks, which will be choppy.
Dow Jones Going into Week of
02/19
By: Marty Armstrong
Saturday, February 17, 2018
We closed last week at 25219.38 failing to elect the Weekly Bullish Reversal at
25300. We previously provided a number on the bearish side 25225 which we
warned would indicate a possible "scenario of retesting support."
The numbers are the numbers and the market was above 25300
reaching 25432.42 intraday. So the market had the opportunity to elect it and
then crashed going into the close.
Next week, resistance is forming at 25599 and 25710 with additional technical
resistance at 25300 and 25995 while the key support lies at 23615. Initial
support technically lies at 25130.
Once again, we see the strongest turning point on Friday. The volatility will start
to rise and build int the following week. The Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 24420.
Electing this will signal a retest of support. Only a Daily closing above 25521 will
signal a further retest of resistance.
Dow & The Reversals

By: Marty Armstrong
QUESTION:
Martin,
First, I want to thank you for the How to Trade a Vertical Market and 2018 Share
Market reports. There is an immense amount of information to digest and I'm
sure I will be digging into them voraciously for some time.
The question I have for you is about the reversals that you've been sharing on the
private blog. Using the daily reversals as trading signals have been spot on, but I
am unclear about the weekly signals that have been generated. When the weekly
reversals (that "begin at the 24741 area down to 24696 area.") were elected on
2/9/18 you wrote on 2/11/18 that "the market held the THIRD Weekly Bearish
Reversal bouncing off it and it generated and elected two Minor Weekly Bullish".
Did the election of the minor reversals cancel out the two bearish reversals that
were elected or are we still looking at a high probability that electing those
weekly bearish reversals means we're looking at new lows again over the next
couple of weeks as the weekly and monthly arrays seem to indicate. I am also
curious if the election of the weekly bullish at 25300 tomorrow would cancel out
those bearish indicators or if that would be confirmation that we'd be looking at
BOTH new highs and lows over the next several weeks.
I couldn't quite determine the answer to this from the documentation you've
provided on the models:http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-
wp/2012/05/manual-models.pdf
I'm also looking forward to the next level of Socrates being open so I can dig into
these questions myself!
Regards,
JB
ANSWER: When a market crashes and it makes a new low, there are counter-
trend reversals that are always generated. Normally, these Bullish Reversals are
above the current trading activity so they will rarely come into play. BECAUSE
our What-IF models were showing that the counter-trend Reversals were being
generated BELOW the current trading activity, this confirm that we were NOT
looking at a meltdown such as 1987.
Therefore, we would normally rally back to retest the Reversals that were
elected when you do so by more than 1%. Reversals will tend to be immediate
when you just close near them.
Employing our WHAT-IF Models on the Monthly Level, we will have to focus on
24328 for the close of February. If we close ABOVE this then we can see Feb as a
Knee-Jerk Low. However, if we close BELOW 25300 for this week, we must take
into account the possibility that we will then close Feb BENEATH 24328 and that
would warn of a low in March which might be the week of 03/12.
So you can see that the two Weekly Bearish Reversals that were elected are not
necessarily cancelled out. Let's see how we close for this week and if below
25300, then we may then move lower to position the market to fool with the
Monthly level.
As they say, it's not over until the Fat Lady sings!
Dow for the Closing of the 16th

By: Marty Armstrong
Today, we elected a Minor Daily Bullish Reversal suggesting we should make a
new high tomorrow Friday the 16th of February. This is the bounce and we now
need to focus on the Weekly Bullish Reversal at 25300 tomorrow. We NEED to
close above that tomorrow to press higher. Failure to close above that level
tomorrow will warn that we can move back down to retest support.
We really need a closing above 25975 tomorrow to imply the market is going to
retest the January high. A weekly closing BELOW 25225 will confirm a more
likely scenario of retesting support.
With everyone being bullish these days, we may yet still retest support. ONLY a
Weekly closing below 23251 will signal a continued decline and this is countered
by a Weekly closing ABOVE 25300 to imply a retest of the high.
Keep in mind we see consolidation into March. The two critical weeks are 02/19
and 03/12. We should see a trend emerge starting the week of 03/12 and that
should take us into May.
Dow & the Bounce

By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, February 15, 2018
We previous wrote: "The market held the THIRD Weekly Bearish Reversal
bouncing off it and it generated and elected two Minor Weekly Bullish. With next
week being a Directional Change, consolidation seems to be the likely course of
action. Holding that Third Weekly Bearish Reversal is significant. Technically, the
market has not breached anything serious as of yet. As warned previously, we
see choppiness now going into the week of the 19th."
The first Daily Bullish Reversal stands at 25106 and a closing above that will
imply a rally into tomorrow. The next one is 25521. We would need to close above
that to be impressive.
We can see that the technical resistance for a bounce should be 25303 area. So
far this is a normal bounce. We need to at least close above this to imply further
upside.
Gold The Breakout or Frustration?

By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Gold is shaping up showing that the second half of 2018 should be the volatile
period and November will be a Panic Cycle about when we will be holding the
WEC again in mid-November after the mid-term elections in the USA. We will
announce the dates when details are finalized and we will open it for tickets.
We have Directional Changes coming into play next week and March. May will be
a key turning point and the two Reversals we must pay attention to are 1362.50
on a monthly basis and 1347 on a quarterly closing basis coming into play for
March. We need to cross both of these Reversals to negate a decline short-term.
2019 is a Panic Cycle Year so the risk of a decline cannot be ruled out until we
pass 2020. Because we are at a major crossroads at last, we have produced
major reports reviewing the benchmarks and the prospects moving forward in
two separate detailed reports.
DOW Clarification
By: Marty Armstrong
Saying that we would need to closed ABOVE both Bullish Reversals to imply a
retest of the highs is NOT a forecast. This is simply defining what would happen
"IF" that took place. We have no indication that this is the likely outcome.
Keep in mind that today is a Directional Change and the next turning point will be
on Friday. Volatility should rise again starting tomorrow.
Dow & Bullish Reversals
By: Marty Armstrong
The Daily Bullish Reversals start at 25106 followed by 25521. We need a closing
above both to signal a retest of the high. The low came within 10 basis points of
the technical support.
Oscillators v Energy
By: Marty Armstrong
The decline in the Dow was a perfect 10 days down. The Oscillator crossed on
the 30th of January to the downside confirming a shift in trend. Energy peaked 2
days prior so the primary difference between an Oscillator and our Energy Model
is the Energy is much more responsive to the market movements whereas the
Oscillator can remain in an overbought position for a long time and it tends to be
a lagging indicator providing more of a confirmation rather than a leading
indicator.
Dow & Energy Models

By: Marty Armstrong
Our Energy Models do not indicate that we are dealing with a major high. They
suggest that we will be making new highs again in the future. We can see that
the Weekly Energy Model was just finally starting to breakout making new highs.
The same pattern of making a new high on the Daily Level also appeared.
When we are dealing with a major high, the Energy Model tends to peak before
the actual high. As the market tends to move higher, the Energy Model does not
make new highs in contrast to the actual price movement.
This comparison indicates that we are not dealing with the major high.
Dow Jones & the Consolidation

By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
On Friday, we bounced off of the third Weekly Bearish Reversal and elected two
minor Weekly Bullish. Previously, we warned that we saw consolidation rather
than a continued collapse.
What is most interesting is that the Global Market Watch on the yearly level has
actually picked the high and warned of a waterfall. Then after the close of Friday,
it changed on the Quarterly Level still calling it an important high and the Yearly
to New Higher Possible.
Clearly, the current price action is significant to be changing the dynamic

quarter to yearly pattern analysis.
In the new Share Market Report what is laid out is just how critical a crossroads
we have reached here with a January high in 2018. We have laid out the points to
confirm a slingshot up or a crash and then a swing back up. There is no question
that we will see new highs again. The next entry point will be critical at catch.
Dow for the Week of 2/11/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Sunday, February 11, 2018
The market held the THIRD Weekly Bearish Reversal bouncing off it and it
generated and elected two Minor Weekly Bullish. With next week being a
Directional Change, consolidation seems to be the likely course of action.
Holding that Third Weekly Bearish Reversal is significant. Technically, the market
has not breached anything serious as of yet. As warned previously, we see
choppiness now going into the week of the 19th.
Here is the Daily Array for this upcoming week. We see Monday and Friday as the
key days as well as Wednesday. We have back-to-back Directional Changes for
Monday and Tuesday and the volatility appears to rise on Friday. So indeed, this
week looks choppy and confusing for many.

Fedg

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The Fed - Interest Rates - Real

Winds Behind the Curtain

US Share Market for November

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US Share Market Afternoon Update

US Share Market Update Mid-Day

US Share Market Update

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US Share Market in the Aftermath

The Dow Going into Week of 10/15-22

The Closing of September 2018

The Euro going into October 2018

The Euro & British Pound

Gold for the Closing of August 2018

German DAX for the Close of August 2018

British Pound for Closing of August 2018

Euro for the Close of August 2018

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Euro for the close of June 22, 2018

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The Euro for the Closing of May 31,

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REPLY: It is amazing to me how wrong the fundamentalists always are. They

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The Dollar Rally

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