Institutional Equities

Emami
1 February 2019

Reuters: EMAM.NS; Bloomberg: HMN IN

Low Expectations ACCUMULATE

Emami has delivered a fairly muted performance in 3QFY19, in line with our expectation,
since initiating coverage on the stock nearly 16 months ago in September 2017. Although the
Sector: FMCG
stock is still not out of woods from a fundamental perspective, its valuation is far more CMP: Rs411
modest at 1SD below long-term average at 30x and the sharp absolute and relative
underperformance of more than 27% and 33%, respectively, in the last 12 months capture the Target Price: Rs420
dynamics to some extent. Considering that valuations are now in a more acceptable zone
3QFY19 Result Update

and expectations are fairly low from the stock, we have upgraded our rating on the stock to Upside: 2%
Accumulate (from Sell earlier) with a target price of Rs420, implying a forward multiple of 30x
on our September 2020 estimate. 3QFY19 earnings performance was again fairly muted and
Vijay Chugh
below our expectation. The company attributed a large part of the weakness to seasonal Research Analyst
factors impacting its winter portfolio. Boroplus, its winter brand, witnessed a growth of vijay.chugh@nirmalbang.com
merely 4% during the quarter. The key positive takeaway from the management conference- +91-22-6273 8064
call was that the company continues to make progress in its distribution mix and some of the
raw material cost concerns have now eased modestly. On the negative side, there is not Key Data
enough clarity still on the innovation pipeline and a large number of brands could still
witness volatility in performance. Current Shares O/S (mn) 453.9
Modest pick-up in top-line growth: As against flat sales growth in the previous quarter, the Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 186.5/2.6
company reported sales growth of 8% which was largely in line with expectation. According to the
company, the domestic growth of 7% was impacted by a delayed winter. This resulted in Boroplus, 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 602/385
its key winter brand, reporting growth of a mere 4%. Navratna, Keshking and healthcare portfolio Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 292,911
reported growth rates higher than the yearly average during the quarter whereas the performance of
pain and men’s grooming segment was somewhat subdued.
Raw material inflation weighs on margins: Similar to the previous quarter, there was substantial Price Performance (%)
weakness in operating margins primarily led by gross margin which declined nearly 400bps. This
sharp reduction in gross margin resulted in unchanged operating performance and was around 7% 1M 6M 1 Yr
below expectations.
Emami (2.2) (30.5) (26.9)
Outlook and valuation: Our fundamental concerns relating to the modest innovation pipeline and
growth of key brands still remain. However, we believe the significant underperformance in the Nifty Index (0.3) (4.6) (1.8)
recent past to some degree captures this low earnings growth profile. Considering that expectations
Source: Bloomberg
from the stock are fairly modest and valuations are below long-term average, we have revised our
rating on the stock to Accumulate (from Sell earlier) with a target P/E multiple of 30x (from 26x
earlier which was assigned considering runaway inflation witnessed in current prices), giving a target
price of Rs420, up 2% from the CMP.
Y/E March (Rsmn) 3QFY18 2QFY19 3QFY19 YoY (%) QoQ (%) 9MFY18 9MFY19 YoY (%)
Net sales 7,552 6,280 8,109 7.4 29.1 19,242 20,533 6.7
COGS 2,195 1,972 2,677 22.0 35.8 6,114 6,722 9.96
% of sales 29.1 31.4 33.0 395 162 31.8 32.7 97
Gross margin % 70.9 68.6 67.0 (395bps) (162bps) 68.2 67.3 (97bps)
Employee costs 680 714 699 2.8 -2.1 1,983 2,116 6.7
% of sales 9.0 11.4 8.6 (39bps) (275bps) 10.3 10.3 -
Advertising costs 1,293 995 1,291 (0.2) 29.7 3,709 3,712 0.1
% of sales 17.1 15.8 15.9 (120bps) 7bps 19.3 18.1 (120bps)
Other expenses 737 705 776 5.3 10.0 1,974 2,187 10.8
% of sales 9.8 11.2 9.6 (19bps) (166bps) 10.3 10.7 39bps
EBITDA 2,647 1,894 2,666 0.7 40.8 5,462 5,795 6.11
EBITDA margin % 35.0 30.2 32.9 (217bps) 272bps 28.4 28.2 (16bps)
Depreciation 186 202 178 (4.6) (11.9) 495 609 23.1
Amortisation 614 613 615 0.2 0.2 1,806 1,835 1.6
EBIT 1,847 1,079 1,874 1.5 73.7 3,161 3,352 6.0
EBIT margin % 24.5 17.2 23.1 (135bps) 593bps 16.4 16.3 (10bps)
Interest expenses 92 44 62 (32.6) 42.2 276 152 (44.9)
Other income 55 31 55 0.2 77.8 173 106 (38.9)
Exceptional item - - (98) - - - (98) -
PBT 1,810 1,067 1,769 (2.2) 65.9 3,059 3,306 8.1
Tax 338 240 386 14.2 61.1 593 729 23.0
Effective tax rate % 18.69 22.48 21.83 314bps (65bps) 19.38 22.05 267bps
PAT 1,472 827 1,383 (6.0) 67.3 2,467 2,577 4.5
Adjusted PAT 2,085 1,440 2,096 0.5 45.5 4,273 4,314 1.0
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net sales 24,930 25,412 27,290 29,406 31,657
YoY growth (%) 5.7 1.9 7.4 7.8 7.7
EBITDA 7,355 7,194 7,778 8,057 8,583
EBITDA margin (%) 29.5 28.3 28.5 27.4 27.1
Reported PAT 3,159 3,087 3,612 3,787 5,250
Adjusted PAT 5,781 5,481 6,025 6,201 6,472
EPS 12.7 12.0 13.2 13.6 14.3
YoY change (%) 0.4 -5.5 9.9 2.9 4.7
RoCE (%) 30.5 28.4 30.1 29.8 28.8
RoE (%) 34.3 29.1 28.9 27.2 25.6
P/E (x) 45.0 46.3 31.0 29.6 28.3
P/B (x) 14.9 12.6 8.7 7.7 6.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 36.0 35.2 23.2 21.7 20.1
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 2: Growth trend in power brands

Particulars (%) 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19
Navratna 5 (15) 16 15 14 19 3 10
Boroplus (2) 41 38 10 (2) (15) (7) 4
Balms 1 (21) 15 17 13 39 (8) 6
HCD 1 - 2 (3) (2) 28 1 18
Fair & Handsome 5 (21) 10 22 8 8 12 2
Kesh King 1 (28) (16) (19) 6 10 2 26
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 3: Our estimates versus actual performance

Y/E (Rsmn) 3QFY18 2QFY19 3QFY19 YoY (%) QoQ (%) NBIE est. Estimates Deviation (%)
Net sales 7,552 6,280 8,109 7.4 29.1 8,171 (0.8)
EBITDA 2,647 1,894 2,666 0.7 40.8 2,860 (6.8)
EBITDA margin (%) 35.0 30.2 32.9 (220bps) 270bps 35 (210bps)
Adj. PAT 2,085 1,440 2,096 0.5 45.5 2,290 (8.5)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 4: Change in our estimates

Y/E March Old estimate New estimate Change (%)
(Rsmn) FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net sales 27,655 29,989 32,287 27,290 29,406 31,657 (1.3) (1.9) (1.9)
EBITDA 7,688 8,217 8,756 7,778 8,057 8,583 1.2 (1.9) (2)
EBITDA (%) 28 27 27 28.5 27.4 27.1 70bps - -
Adj. PAT 6,015 6,380 6,873 6,025 6,201 6,472 0.2 (2.8) (5.8)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 5: Rise in mentha oil prices Exhibit 6: Top-line growth trend
(Rs/Kg)

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
Sep-17

Sep-18
Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-17
May-17

May-18

Jul-18
Mar-17

Mar-18
Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 7: No headroom for operating margin expansion Exhibit 8: PAT margin trend

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 9: One-year forward P/E

(x)
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Jan-14

Jan-18

Jan-19
Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17
Jul-13

Jul-18
Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17
Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-18

Oct-18

Forward PE Median +1 SD -1 SD

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 10: FMCG sector - relative valuation
P/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) EBITD
Sales EPS
Mkt cap A
Company CMP
(USD mn)
CAGR
CAGR
CAGR PEG
FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E % %
%
F&B and Tobacco
ITC LTD 279 48,029 8.4 7.8 7.0 6.5 21.1 19.3 17.1 15.6 31.7 28.8 25.7 23.3 9.2 10.6 10.8 2.9
GODFREY PHILLIPS INDIA LTD 929 680 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 18.2 11.5 9.5 7.7 18.5 15.3 12.2 12.2 8.4 33.4 14.9 1.2
NESTLE INDIA LTD 11,498 15,604 11.1 9.9 8.7 7.6 51.4 40.2 35.0 29.9 90.5 69.3 58.5 48.7 13.4 19.8 22.9 3.9
BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD 3,198 10,817 7.8 6.8 5.9 5.2 50.8 41.1 32.7 28.0 38.2 30.7 23.8 20.4 14.2 22.0 23.3 1.6
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
7,331 4,340 7.1 6.5 5.9 5.4 30.6 26.3 24.0 21.9 44.0 37.0 34.3 30.9 9.7 11.7 12.5 3.5
CONSUMER HEA
UNITED SPIRITS LTD 540 5,521 4.7 4.1 3.7 3.3 34.9 29.7 25.5 21.8 60.4 50.5 40.7 33.3 12.3 17.1 22.0 2.7
UNITED BREWERIES LTD 1,429 5,318 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.6 42.0 32.2 27.7 23.9 95.9 64.6 53.7 43.9 13.6 20.7 29.8 3.2
JUBILANT FOODWORKS LTD 1,258 2,338 5.6 4.7 4.1 3.5 36.3 25.8 21.1 17.9 80.5 50.0 38.6 31.9 16.7 26.5 36.2 2.2
WESTLIFE DEVELOPMENT
380 832 5.2 4.2 3.5 2.9 79.0 44.5 30.8 21.5 354.8 128.0 77.4 45.3 22.2 54.2 98.6 3.6
LTD
HPC
DABUR INDIA LTD 444 11,030 10.1 9.1 8.3 7.6 48.6 42.2 37.7 34.6 57.5 50.2 44.3 40.2 10.2 12.0 12.7 4.5
COLGATE PALMOLIVE (INDIA) 1,280 4,901 8.3 7.9 7.4 6.9 30.9 28.3 26.5 24.8 50.8 47.2 42.7 39.3 6.4 7.6 9.0 5.7
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD 1,763 53,724 11.1 9.8 8.8 8.0 51.6 42.7 36.2 31.1 72.0 60.5 50.7 43.7 11.4 18.3 18.1 4.0
EMAMI LTD 411 2,625 7.3 6.7 6.2 5.8 26.2 24.3 22.4 20.3 34.0 29.6 27.2 24.3 8.3 8.9 11.9 2.9
PROCTER & GAMBLE
9,909 4,527 13.1 11.5 10.2 N.A. 51.6 41.8 34.8 N.A. 85.9 69.6 58.4 N.A. 13.6 19.5 23.6 3.6
HYGIENE
MARICO LTD 367 6,664 7.5 6.4 5.7 5.1 40.8 35.1 29.1 25.2 58.0 49.8 41.2 35.5 13.9 17.5 17.8 3.3
GILLETTE INDIA LTD 6,500 2,981 12.6 11.2 9.8 8.5 54.9 40.8 34.0 29.1 92.5 66.0 53.4 45.2 14.0 23.5 26.9 3.4
GODREJ CONSUMER
709 10,205 7.4 6.8 6.2 5.5 35.5 33.1 28.7 24.9 44.3 45.4 39.1 33.7 10.5 12.5 9.6 4.6
PRODUCTS LTD
JYOTHY LABORATORIES LTD 184 951 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.8 25.7 22.7 19.8 17.5 36.0 36.2 30.5 26.4 12.3 13.8 10.9 3.3

Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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 Institutional Equities
Financials (consolidated)
Exhibit 11: Income statement Exhibit 12: Cash flow
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net Sales 24,930 25,412 27,290 29,406 31,657 Adjusted PAT 5,781 5,481 6,025 6,201 6,472
% Growth 5.7 1.9 7.4 7.8 7.7 Depreciation 469 702 782 904 1,041
COGS 8,429 8,263 9,142 9,939 10,860 Other income (311) (195) (195) (215) (350)
Staff costs 2,401 2,563 2,729 2,882 3,106 (Inc.)/dec. in working capital (509) 1,050 853 (1,379) 951
Advertising costs 4,428 4,696 4,776 5,587 6,001 Cash flow from operations 6,015 7,370 7,633 5,650 8,229
Other expenses 2,318 2,696 2,865 2,941 3,107 Capital expenditure (-) (2,779) (1,300) (1,024) (1,500) (2,250)
Total expenses 17,575 18,218 19,513 21,349 23,074 Net cash after capex 3,236 6,070 6,609 4,150 5,979
EBITDA 7,355 7,194 7,778 8,057 8,583 Dividends paid (-) (3,798) (3,798) (3,798) (3,798) (3,771)
% growth 7.0 (2.2) 8.1 3.6 6.5 Inc./(dec.) in total borrowings (1,985) 1,530 (1,759) (500) (250)
EBITDA margin (%) 29.5 28.3 28.5 27.4 27.1 Inc./(dec.) in investments (492) (1,664) 1,672 183 (392)
Other income 311 195 195 215 350 Cash from financial activities (6,067) (3,395) (5,566) (4,416) (4,092)
Interest costs 580 343 180 150 105 Opening cash balance 1,084 501 2,170 6,863 9,205
Depreciation 469 702 782 904 1,041 Closing cash balance 501 2,170 6,863 9,205 11,132
Amortisation 2,617 2,406 2,426 2,426 1,213 Change in cash balance (584) 1,670 4,693 2,342 1,927
Profit before tax (before
exceptional items)
4,000 3,938 4,585 4,792 6,574 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Exceptional items - - - - -
Tax 836 863 986 1,017 1,315 Exhibit 14: Key ratios
PAT 3,164 3,075 3,600 3,775 5,259
Y/E March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Adjusted PAT 5,781 5,481 6,025 6,201 6,472
Per share (Rs)
PAT margin (%) 22.9 21.4 21.9 20.9 20.2
Adj EPS 12.7 12.0 13.2 13.6 14.3
% Growth 0.4 (5.2) 9.9 2.9 4.4
Adj BVPS 38.6 44.4 47.5 52.8 58.7
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Adj DPS 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Exhibit 13: Balance sheet Valuation (x)
P/Sales 10.5 10.0 6.8 6.2 5.8
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
EV/sales 10.6 10.0 6.6 5.9 5.4
Share capital 227 227 227 227 227
EV/EBITDA 36.0 35.2 23.2 21.7 20.1
Reserves 17,320 19,909 21,343 23,734 26,444
P/E 45.0 46.3 31.0 29.6 28.3
Net worth 17,547 20,136 21,570 23,961 26,671
P/BV 14.9 12.6 8.7 7.7 6.9
Total debt 1729.6 3259.1 1500 1000 750
Return ratios (%)
Deferred tax liability 422 118 118 118 118
RoCE 30.5 28.4 30.1 29.8 28.8
Total liabilities 18,337 20,839 22,444 24,866 27,611
RoE 34.3 29.1 28.9 27.2 25.6
Gross block 9,966 11,169 12,169 13,669 15,669
Profitability ratios (%)
Depreciation 2,462 3,164 3,946 4,850 5,892
Gross margin 66.2 67.5 66.5 66.2 65.7
Net block 7,504 8,005 8,223 8,819 9,777
EBITDA margin 29.5 28.3 28.5 27.4 27.1
Capital work-in-progress 129 226 250 250 500
EBIT margin 27.6 25.5 25.6 24.3 23.8
Intangible assets 12479 10095 7406 4981 3768
PAT margin 22.9 21.4 21.9 20.9 20.2
Investments 1277 3136 1659 1691 2433
Liquidity ratios (%)
Inventories 1,792 1,940 1,317 2,114 1,753
Current ratio 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 2.8
Debtors 970 1,559 684 1,733 1,043
Quick ratio 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.2 2.5
Cash 501 2,170 6,863 9,205 11,132
Solvency ratio (%)
Loans & advances 88 149 149 149 750
Debt-to-equity ratio 0.3 0.2 0.1 - -
Other current assets 945 28 928 970 1013
Turnover ratios
Total current assets 4,579 7,008 10,231 14,494 15,824
Total asset turnover ratio (x) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Creditors 1,847 2,420 2,589 2,857 2,975
Fixed asset turnover ratio (x) 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2
Other current liabilities &
4,172 1,460 1,546 1,788 1,833 Debtor days 17 18 15 15 16
provisions
Total current liabilities 7,749 7,139 5,635 5,645 5,558 Inventory days 71 82 65 63 65
Net current assets (3,170) (132) 4,596 8,848 10,266 Creditor days 94 94 100 100 98
Total assets 18,337 20,839 22,444 24,866 27,611
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

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 Institutional Equities
Rating track
Date Rating Market price (Rs) Target price (Rs)
29 September 2017 Sell 545 500
27 October 2017 Sell 606 540
31 January 2018 Sell 572 525
4 May 2018 Sell 541 510
3 August 2018 Sell 569 530
31 October 2018 Sell 404 380
1 February 2019 Accumulate 411 420

Rating chart
700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350
May-18
May-17

Mar-18
Feb-18

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Oct-18
Apr-17

Oct-17
Aug-17

Sep-18
Sep-17

Aug-18
Nov-17
Dec-17

Nov-18
Dec-18
Jun-17

Jan-18

Jun-18

Jan-19
Jul-17

Jul-18

Not Covered Covered

6 Emami
 Institutional Equities
Disclaimer
Stock Ratings Absolute Returns
BUY > 15%
ACCUMULATE -5% to15%
SELL < -5%

DISCLOSURES
This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “NBEPL”) for private circulation. NBEPL is a registered
Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH000001436. NBEPL is also a registered Stock
Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments.

NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have different or
contrary views on stocks and markets.

NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market.
NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst do not
have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or
Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the
date of publication of this research report.

NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered
by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered
by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and
NBEPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject company.

Analyst Certification: I, Vijay Chugh, the Independent Research Analyst and is the authors of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in
this research report accurately reflects our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that
no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in
this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and
maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.

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 Institutional Equities
DISCLAIMER

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Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser,
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This report is jointly prepared by Independent Research Analyst, Mr. Vijay Chugh who is registered with SEBI as ‘Research Analyst’ having registration
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Team Details:
Name Email Id Direct Line
Rahul Arora CEO rahul.arora@nirmalbang.com -

Girish Pai Head of Research girish.pai@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8017 / 18

Dealing
Ravi Jagtiani Dealing Desk ravi.jagtiani@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8230, +91 22 6636 8833
Pradeep Kasat Dealing Desk pradeep.kasat@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8100/8101, +91 22 6636 8831
Michael Pillai Dealing Desk michael.pillai@nirmalbang.com +91 22 6273 8102/8103, +91 22 6636 8830

Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

Correspondence Address
B-2, 301/302, Marathon Innova,
Nr. Peninsula Corporate Park,
Lower Parel (W), Mumbai-400013.
Board No. : 91 22 6273 8000/1; Fax. : 022 6273 8010

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