Recent Researches in System Science

Automation of the Day Ahead Congestion Forecast procedure

MIOMIR KOSTIC1, NENAD SIJAKOVIC2, VALERI MLADENOV3
1
University of Belgrade
Bulevar kralja Aleksandra 73, 11000 Belgrade
SERBIA
2
JP Elektromreza Srbije
Kneza Milosa 11, 11000 Belgrade
SERBIA
3
Department of Theoretical Electrical Engineering
Technical University of Sofia
Sofia 1000, boulevard Kliment Ohridski 8
BULGARIA
kostic@etf.rs nenad.sijakovic@ems.rs valerim@tu-sofia.bg

Abstract: - The Day Ahead Congestion Forecast (DACF) is a regular procedure for power flow forecasts in the
European Interconnected network. It is performed on a daily basis (today-for-tomorrow), whereby European
TSOs participate in common activities such as production of the forecast network models of transmission
network for the day ahead, necessary for load flow and contingency analyses for the 24 hours of the next day.
Exchanging those forecast models with all TSOs in Europe, collecting all of the models produced by regional
partners and merging them with their own model, enables making a regional network model and running AC
Load Flow and Contingency Analysis on the regional interconnected transmission model. The goal is to prevent
appearance of congestions in the regional grid and to maximize the usage of the network. One of the expected
results of the SEETSOC project is the development of a Congestion forecasting tool (named TSPOT -
Transmission System Planning Operational Tool), the main goal of which is to automate the DACF procedure
and help TSOs to achieve very complex goals in a new deregulated environment.

Keywords: DACF procedure, Congestion management, Transmission system, Planning, Contingency analysis

1 Introduction the networks. On the other hand, the rules applied

One of the main targets of the liberalization of the
electricity supply sector in the European Union is
the creation of a truly Internal Electricity Market
(IEM). By introducing competition among
generators and suppliers not only in their domestic
markets, but also on an international scale, the
economic efficiency of electricity supply shall be
maximized for the benefit of the consumers end the
entire economy. However, the transmission system
operators (TSOs) have historically not designed
their networks and interconnections between them
with the primary objective of facilitating internal
power trade. As a consequence, the integration of
the national electricity markets is impeded by the
limited amount of cross border transmission
capacity at several borders [4].
To mitigate this problem, on one hand EU
supports measures to increase the transmission
capacities, either by investment in new network
facilities or by optimization and harmonization of
operating standards that allow better utilization of
for managing the utilization of the existing
transmission capacities, which can be summarized
by the term “congestion management methods”, are
of the particular importance for the efficiency of the
IEM, as well as for the security of the overall
system operation in short and medium terms [3].
2 Congestion management procedure
The main target of the Congestion management
procedure is to recognize and prevent appearance of
dangerous regimes in power system operation
through a process of operational planning and later
on by system control measures in real time.
Congestion management procedure can be divided
into the following four steps [2]:
• Planning and coordination of the
maintenance of the crucial network
elements in the region,
• Calculation and allocation of cross border
transmission capacities on yearly, monthly,
weekly, daily and intra daily levels,

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 Recent Researches in System Science

• DACF (Day Ahead Congestion Forecast) • common Applications (opens in new

analysis, and window: Contingency Statistics Analyzer
• Real time dispatching actions. with Report Manager, Outage Scheduler,
Format Converter, Model Compare Wizard,
2.1 DACF procedure User Accounts & Logs Manager)
The third step of the congestion management is • MAST (many at the same time) applications
based on DACF, in which every day TSOs are (opens in the Case Window: Contingency
checking the system operation security through Analyzer with Report Manager,
“n-1” criteria on the merged regional network model Transmission Capacity Manager with
[2]. Report Manager, Model Creator Wizard,
Every day each TSO is obliged to generate Model Merger and Checker, Grid Data,
mathematical network models of their network Graphical System Presentation, Study Case
(400 kV and 220 kV levels are modeled) for with Report Manager, Auto Scheduler,
tomorrow’s characteristic hours. Those models in Information Exchange)
UCTE format are then being exchanged between all
partners in the interconnection, after which each 3.2 TSPOT architecture
TSO can perform security checks through TSPOT software consists of the following modules:
contingency analysis on the merged regional 1. Data Base Module
network models for the desired hours. 2. User Accounts & Logs Manager
If the security criteria are not satisfied (there is a 3. Auto Schedule Module
problem concerning overload, voltage stability or 4. Model Creator Module/Global
any other issue regarding overall system operation functions/ Load Adjustment Sub
security), TSO have the right to change cross border
module/Model Compare Sub
power exchange schedule or internal production
schedule for that particular period of the day. module/Format Converter Sub module
A software tool for short term congestion 5. Outage Scheduler Sub module
forecasting, named Transmission System Planning 6. Load Flow Module
Operational Tool (TSPOT), which is under 7. Contingency Analyzer Module
development at the moment in the framework of 8. Contingency Statistics Analyzer Module
FP7 project named SEETSOC, deals with this issue. 9. Report manager for Statistics Analyzer
Module
3 Transmission System Planning 10. Study Case Sub module
11. Report manager for Study Case Module
Operational Tool 12. Information Exchange Module
This section presents a short overview of the
13. Overall Settings Module
TSPOT software main features, architecture and
functionality [1].

3.1 TSPOT main features

Windows desktop application developed in Visual
Studio under .net framework, data base based (DB
on local server for local usage only). Application
organization: master form / child forms
organization.
Master form: a unique form, representing the
starting point for all applications.
Child forms:
• cases (opens in new window, each case
consists of four windows: Work Case
Window, Notification/Results Window,
Solution Explorer Window and Property & Fig. 1: Transmission System Planning Operational
Settings Window) Tool - Modules

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 Recent Researches in System Science
3.2 TSPOT main functions
Network Models Managing
• usage of UCTE and/or new CIM XML data
format for network modelling
• data base based network modelling
• function of format conversion from/into
UCTE and/or new CIM XML data format
• function of model builder from snapshot
reference model
• creation of models storage
• function of automated DACF model creator
• function of model merger
• function of model checker
• modular approach for inputs that will allow
usage in different TSOs with different input
data sources
• modular structure that easily be connected
to other relevant modules and sub modules
of the Congestion Forecasting Tool
Power Flow Calculation
• data base based AC and DC load flow
machines
• possibility to work with common regional
network model (SEE regional model
consists of the models of the following
countries: Italia, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary,
Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia,
FYROM, Greece, Albania, Ukraine West
and Slovakia). All transmission network
voltage levels starting with 110 kV should
be taken into consideration.
• Load Flow settings, defined in DB, with
huge spectra of freedom for users (for
example, concerning AC load flow:
tolerance, conversion from PV to PQ,
number of iterations, flat start, possibility to
select slack node, multiple slack node
selection,…)
• Graphical System Presentation in a form of
tree view (under Common User Interface
Sub module)
Contingency analysis (checking od n-1 criteria)[5]
• primary function is to perform contingency
analysis (n-1 criteria checking) on the
existing network model. The idea is to
create an automatic machine that will
change topology of the considered network
for each case defined in the Outage list.
After topology modification, each time full
load flow calculation will take place in
order to monitor load flows on the elements
defined in the Monitoring list and voltages
in all nodes. If the CA machine finds
ISBN: 978-1-61804-023-7
overload on some of the monitored elements
or over/under voltage in any node, this will
be recorded and put in the report. After
calculation is done by the CA machine, load
flow module report is available through user
interface (data grid view). User can insert
that report into DB manually or that can be
set as an automatic function. CSA module
uses these reports as a base for its statistical
calculations.
• inputs:
a. List of contingencies (user defined
selection of n-1 and n-2 contingencies)
b. List of outages
c. List of monitoring elements
• software should be able to import existing
lists from txt file format, or to generate new
lists.
• outputs: Contingency analysis (n-1 criteria
checking) results, which will be shown in
CA window after the calculation through
user Interface and after that optionally saved
into DB in Contingency Statistics Analyzer
Module & Report Manager Data Table
Contingency Statistics Analyzer
• editor (user interface) with tools for
statistical analysis of “n-1” criteria checking
results (CA outputs), with output in a form
of data grids and diagrams (Report manager
for Contingency Statistics Analyzer)

results of “n-1” criteria checking
performed by CA module, presented in
data grid view (table) with advanced
filtering and export functions:
- filter by contingency, outage or
overload
- filter by type of the outage or
overload, connection to the
domestic or foreign element
- filter by date and hour of the
concerned contingency
- filter by overload level
- presentation of the results of “n-1”
criteria checking performed by CA
module connected with network
topology at that specific model
- presentation of the results of “n-1”
criteria checking performed by CA
module connected with generation
engagement at that specific model
- export of the overall list or filtered
list in a form of csv, txt, doc, xls or
pdf file format
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 Recent Researches in System Science

tabular presentation of the contingency filter by outages and filter by

appearance frequency in the selected overloads.
time period:
- filter by definable time period and
selected hours 4 Conclusions
- possibility to work with full or The presented features, architecture and functions of
filtered contingency list the TSPOT software show that this software,
- export of the table in a form of csv, together with other products of the SEETSOC
txt, doc, xls or pdf file format project which will be developed under FP7

tabular presentation of the outage framework, will be of great help for regional TSOs
appearance frequency in the selected in the SEE region in the near future.
time period:
- filter by definable time period and
selected hours Acknowledgement
- possibility to work with full or The results presented in this paper are obtained
filtered contingency list within the project 239453 (SEETSOC) of FP7-
- export of the table in a form of csv, ENERGY-2008-TREN-1.
txt, doc, xls or pdf file format

tabular presentation of the overload
appearance frequency in the selected
References:
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- filter by definable time period and [1] N. Sijakovic, M. Kostic, V. Mladenov,
selected hours SEETSOC_Deliverable_D5.2.1_01.02.2011.
- possibility to work with full or [2] N. Sijakovic, Load Flow calculation and
filtered contingency list contingency analysis using PSA software tool,
- export of the table in a form of csv, ЕМS, Belgrade 2006.
txt, doc, xls or pdf file format

graphical presentation (diagrams) of the [3] А. Kurcubic, B. Sumonja, N. Sijakovic, Ј.
statistical analysis results with the Petrovic, Calculation of cross border
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• possibility to use three different types of JUKO CIGRE Tara, 2006.
diagrams (each type contains three sub [4] B. Sumonja, А. Kurcubic, N. Sijakovic, Ј.
types) Petrovic, Possibility of Coordinated Auction
1. a) diagram that shows appearance appliance in Serbian network and influence of
of the contingencies during one HPP Djerdap 1, JUKO CIGRE Tara, 2006.
year,
b) diagram that shows appearance [5] N Sijakovic, J Vicovac, M Stancevic, A
of the outages during one year, Kurcubic, Critical outages of Transmission
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selected time period and selected
hours
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appearance frequency in the
selected time period and selected
hours.
3. diagram that shows overload levels
of the contingencies in the selected
time period and selected hours with

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