Demography

Luz Barbara P. Dones, MPH, RN

Associate Professor
UP Manila College of Nursing
Definition of Demography
• Empirical, statistical and mathematical study of
human populations
• Focuses on three common and easily observable
human events
- population size
- population structure
- distribution of population in space
• Concerned with seeking reasons why conditions
in the population are changing the way they are
given the rate of change they exhibit
- natality
- mortality
- migration
Uses of Demography
• Identify and characterize the health
problems of a community
• Plan, prioritize and implement health
programs rationally
• Study determinants or reasons for
occurrence of health problems in order to
control and prevent them
• Describe the growth and dispersal of
population groups in the past, as well as
predict future developments
Tools of Demography

Counts – absolute numbers of a population or any

demographic event occurring in a specified area
during a specified period in time

Ratio – single number that represents the relative size

of two numbers a/b = k

Proportion – special type of ratio in which the

numerator is part of the denominator
a/a +b = k, when k is 100 the proportion becomes a
Percentage

Rate – occurrence of events over a given interval of

time; useful in dynamic events
 Sources of Demographic Data
Census – total process of collecting, compiling
and publishing demographic, economic and
social data pertaining at a specified time to all
persons in a country or delimited territory (de
jure, de facto)
Sample surveys – collecting information from
only a subset of the population
Registration systems – continuous recording
of vital events as they occur in the
population
Continuing population registries –
continuous recording of information about a
population; maintained on a current basis
Measuring Changes in Population Size
Population Size – number of people in a
given place at a given time; changes in
population size can be described using the
following measures:
• Natural Increase
• Rate of Natural Increase
• Absolute Increase per Year
• Relative Increase
• Annual Rate of Growth
 The Philippines at a glance
• The current population of the
Philippines is 102,200,399 as of Tuesday, June 21,
2016, based on the latest United Nations estimates.
• The Philippines population is equivalent to 1.37% of
the total world population.
• The Philippines ranks number 12 in the list of countries
by population.
• The population density in the Philippines is 343 per
Km2 (888 people per mi2).
• The total land area is 298,192 Km2 (115,133 sq. miles)
• 44.9 % of the population is urban (45,842,660 people
in 2016)
• The median age in the Philippines is 24.4 years.
Measuring Changes in Population Size:
Natural Increase

Natural Increase (NI) is simply the

difference between the number of births
and the number of deaths which occurred
in a specific population within a specified
period of time (usually one year)
Number of Number of
Natural Increase = births - deaths
Measuring Changes in Population Size:
Natural Increase
Example: Determine the natural increase of the
Philippine population in 2002 given the
following data:

Number of births, 2002 = 1,684,395

Number of deaths, 2002 = 319,579

Natural Increase, 2002 = 1,684,395 - 319,579

= 1,364,816 persons

Interpretation: 1,364,816 persons were added to the

population in 2002.
Measuring Changes in Population Size:
Rate of Natural Increase

Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) represents the

difference between the number of births and the
number of deaths expressed relative to the
population size; difference between the Crude
Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate of a specific
population within a specified period of time

Rate of Natural = Crude Birth - Crude Death

Increase Rate Rate
Measuring Changes in Population Size:
Rate of Natural Increase
Example: Determine the rate of natural increase of the
Philippine population in 2002 given the following data:

CBR, 2002 = 25.8/1000 population

CDR, 2002 = 4.9/1000 population

Rate of Natural Increase, 2002 = 25.8/1000 - 4.9/1000

= 20.9/1000 population

Interpretation: About 21 persons per 1000 population were

added to the population in 2002 through
natural means.
Measuring Changes in Population Size:
Absolute Increase Per Year

Absolute Increase per Year (b) measures the

average number of people added to the
population per year; the numerator is the
difference between two population counts while
the denominator is the time interval in years
between the two census dates
Pt - Po
Absolute Increase per Year = t
Measuring Changes in Population Size:
Absolute Increase per Year
Example: Compute for the absolute increase per year of Cavite
Province given the following data:

Population, 1980 = 771,320

Population, 1990 = 1,150,458

Pt - Po
b= t
= 1,150,458 – 771,320
10
= 379,138/10
= 37,914 persons per year

Interpretation: There were 37,914 persons added to the

population per year during the period between
1980 and 1990 in Cavite Province
Measuring Changes in Population Size:
Relative Increase

Relative Increase (RI) is the actual

difference between two census counts
expressed in percent relative to the
population size during the earlier census

Pt - Po
Relative Increase = Po X 100
Measuring Changes in Population Size:
Relative Increase
Example: Compute for the relative increase in the population size of
Cavite Province given the following data:
Population, 1980 = 771,320
Population, 1990 = 1,150,458

Pt - Po
Relative Increase = Po x 100
= 1,150,458 - 771,320
771,320 X100
= 379,138/771,320 X 100
= 0.4915 X 100
= 49.2%
Interpretation: The increase in the population size of Cavite
between 1980 and 1990 is 49% of its original
population
 The country’s population increased by 15.83
million (http://www.census.gov.ph/data/2011)


Census Year Census Philippine

Reference Date Population (in
millions)
2010 May 1, 2010 92.34
2000 May 1, 2000 76.51
1990 May 1, 1990 60.70
Measuring Changes in Population Size:
Annual Rate of Growth
Annual Rate of Growth (r) is similar to
absolute increase and relative increase in
the sense that it quantifies the amount of
change in population size during a
specified period of time; takes on the
assumption that the population is changing
at a constant rate per year
Philippine population grew by 1.90%
annually (http://www.census.gov.ph/data/2011)

Reference Period Average Annual

Growth Rate (%)
2000 - 2010 1.90
1990 - 2000 2.34
Estimating and Projecting Populations
Types of estimates according to:
Detail desired
Total population
Aggregate population
Population subgroups
Population with selected characteristics
Time reference
Inter-censal
Post-censal
Projections
Type of method used
Component: seldom used; also known as “inflow-
outflow” or “balancing equation” method
Mathematical method: classified depending on the
assumption one wishes to make regarding the nature of
population growth
 Type of Method Used
• Component
Pt = Po + (B – D) + (I – O)
where:
Pt and Po are the population
counts at time t and o,
respectively
B = # births occurring during
interval o and t
D = # deaths occurring during the
same interval
I = # in-migrants between time o
and t
O = # out-migrants between time
o and t
Mathematical
• Arithmetic method: assumes
that an equal absolute change
occurs in the population every
year
• Geometric method: assumes
that a constant rate of increase
or decrease occurs over each
unit of time, usually a year
• Exponential method: assumes
that a population size is
changing continuously, thus
increase or decrease in
population occur at every
infinitesimal amount of time
 FORMULA FOR COMPUTING VARIOUS ASPECTS OF POPULATION
ESTIMATION USING MATHEMATICAL ASSUMPTIONS

Unknown Arithmetic Geometric Exponential

Future population Pt = Po + bt Pt = Po (1 + r) t Pt = Po e rt
(Pt)
Past population Po = Pt - bt Pt Pt
(Po) Po = (1+r)t Po = e rt
Absolute increase
per year (b) or Pt-Po r = t Pt – 1 r = In (Pt / Po)
Annual rate of b= t Po t
growth (r)

Time (t) Pt – Po In (Pt / Po) ln (Pt – Po)

t= b t= In (1+r) t= r
Doubling time (t*) Po ln(2) In(2)
t*= b t = ln (1 + r) t*= r
 Projected Total Population of the Philippines
from 2000-2020

Year

Population
2000
 76,946


2005
 85,258 


2010
 94,012


2015
 102,965


2020

(Source: National Statistics Office (NSO-Philippines)
111,783

 Demographic Data

Projected
Population,
Philippines 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(Medium
Assumption)

46,368,90
Male 43,472,100 44,608,300 45,483,100 47,263,600 48,157,560 49,051,520
0

45,857,70
Female 43,230,400 44,098,000 44,974,100 46,749,600 47,646,060 48,452,520
0

92,226,60
Both Sexes 86,972,500 88,706,300 90,457,200 94,013,200 95,803,620 97,594,040
0

DEMOGRAPHY

Projected Population, Philippines
Sources: htp://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/popproj_tab1r.html

http://www.census.gov.ph/data/quickstat/qsgender11q1.pdf
 Describing the Gender Composition of
the Population
• Sex Ratio compares
the number of male
individuals to the
number of females in
the population
Example:
Based on the 1990 Philippine
Census, there were 30,443,187
males and 30,115,929 females
30,443,187
Sex Ratio = ---------------- x 100
30,115,929

# males = 1.0109 (100)

Sex Ratio = ------------- x 100 = 101.09 or 101
# females
Interpretation:
There were 101 males for every
100 females in the Philippines
in 1990
General statements about the sex composition of a
population


• Sex ratio at birth is generally about 105, hence

there are more males than females in the
younger age groups
• Since mortality rates are generally higher among
males than females in most age groups, the sex
ratio tends to decrease with age and eventually
fall below 100
• Sex ratio is higher in rural areas than in urban
areas as well as in frontier communities and
colonies
Describing the Gender Composition of
the Population

• Sex structure represents the various sex

ratios of each age group
 Sex Structure by Region, 2009 (http://www.census.gov.ph/data/2011)




Region Male Female Sex Ratio

PHILIPPINES 907, 221 838, 364 108.2
National Capital Region 137, 878 127, 896 107.8
Cordillera Administrative 17, 231 15, 976 107.9
Region
I -Ilocos Region 51, 125 47, 314 108.1
II -Cagayan Valley 33, 847 31, 161 108.6
III -Central Luzon 106, 303 97, 845 108.6
IV A -CALABARZON 138, 726 127, 962 108.4
IVB -MIMAROPA 24, 409 22, 791 107.1
V -Bicol 59, 964 55, 808 107.4
VI -Western Visayas 63, 058 58, 220 108.3
VII -Central Visayas 75, 405 69, 984 107.7
VIII -Eastern Visayas 33, 211 30, 675 108.3
 Sex Structure by Region, 2009 (http://www.census.gov.ph/data/2011)




Region Male Female Sex Ratio

IX -Zamboanga Peninsula 24, 662 22, 540 109.4

X -Northern Mindanao 41, 428 38, 200 108.5

XI -Davao 43, 901 40, 408 108.6

XII -SOCCSKSARGEN 32, 195 29, 792 108.1

XIII -CARAGA 19, 459 17, 539 110.9

Autonomous Region in Muslim 4, 246 4, 081 104.1

Mindanao
Describing the Age Composition of the
Population

• Median Age divides the population into two

Example: If 16 years old is the computed median

age of the population, it means that 50% or half
of the population is aged 16 years old or over
with other half younger than 16 years old

Interpretation: The lower the median age, the

younger the population; also implies high fertility
in the population
Describing the Age Composition of the
Population
• Age-Dependency Ratio relates the size of the dependent segment of the
population to the economically productive age-group of the population

# of persons 0-14 years old +

# of persons aged 65 years and over
Dependency Ratio = ------------------------------------------------------- x 100
# of persons 15 - 64 years of age

Computed value represents the # of dependents that need to be

supported by every 100 persons in the economically active age
groups

Provides an index of age-induced economic drain on manpower

resources
Example:
Table 1. Distribution of the Population by Age Group, Philippines, 1990
Age Group # %
0-14 24,004,586 39.5
15-64 34,629,959 57.1
65 and over 2,063,445 3.4
Total 60,697,994 100.0

# persons 0-14 years + # persons 65 and over

Age-dependency Ratio = ---------------------------------------------------------------- x 100
# persons 15-64 years
= 24004,586 + 2,063,445
------------------------------- x 100
34,629,959
= 26,068,035
--------------- x 100
34,629,959
= 0.7258 x 100
In 1990, every 100 persons in the economically productive age groups had to
support 75 dependents.
Age 1995 2000 2007
distribution
(%)
Children (0-14 38.4 37.0 35.5
years)
Working age 58.1 59.2 60.3
(15-64 years)

Elderly (65 3.5 3.8 4.1

years and over)

http://www.census.gov.ph/data/publications/pif2012_in_CD.pdf
 1995 2000 2007

Dependency
Ratio (%) 72.2 69.0 66.0

http://www.census.gov.ph/data/publications/pif2012_in_CD.pdf
Factors affecting population’s age
composition
• Fertility level – the higher the level of
fertility, the younger the population
• Urban-rural differences – urban areas
have older population compared to the
rural areas with younger age composition
• Peace and order – postwar periods are
usually followed by baby boom
• Migration rates – young adults are more
mobile
Describing the Age-Sex Composition of
the Population: Population Pyramid
Population pyramid is a graphical representation of the age
and sex composition of the population

Steps in constructing the pyramid:

1. Compute the percentage of the population falling in each age-sex

group using the total population as the denominator.

2. Each age group is represented by a horizontal bar. The first bar

represents the youngest age group and drawn at the base of the
pyramid.

3. The bars for males are presented on the left side of the central vertical
axis while bars for females are on the right side.

4. The length of each bar corresponds to the % of the population falling

in the specific age and sex group being plotted
 Interesting Facts About the Philippine
Population
• 34.6% of people in the Philippines is composed of 0 to 14 years old
(17,999,279 male and 17,285,040 female)
• 61.1% of people in the Philippines is composed of 15-64 years old
(31,103,967 male and 31,097,203 female)
• 4.3% are 65 years old and over (1,876,805 male and 2,471,644
female)
• Population growth rate is 1.873% (2012 estimate), which makes the
Philippines ranks as the 63rd country with highest population growth
rate in the world.
• Manila is the most populated city in the Philippines with 11.449 million
people. Next is Davao City with 1.48 million people, Cebu City with
845,000 people and Zamboanga City with 827,000 people (based on
2009 estimated population)
http://www.affordablecebu.com/load/philippine_government/
total_population_of_the_philippines_2012/5-1-0-3004#ixzz4CGzgvFv1
 Age Structure
Age Group Male Female Total
(%)
0-14 
 18, 493, 668 17, 753, 359 33.7

15-24 10, 416, 358 10, 044, 724 19.0

25-54 
 20, 031, 638 19, 796, 545 37.0

55-64
 2, 882, 719 3, 372, 485 5.8

65 years 2, 103, 596 2, 773, 139 4.5

and over

www.indexmundi.com/Philippines/age_structure.html
Table 5.3 Number and Percent Distribution of the Population By Age and Sex, Philippines, 2005 (WB, 2005)
Age Group Female Male
(Years)
Number % Number %
0-4 4,721,115 5.6 4,937,632 5.9
5-9 4,643,067 5.5 4,832,467 5.7
10 - 14 4,500,519 5.3 4,792,979 5.7
15 - 19 4,229,087 5 4,418,572 5.2
20 -24 3,905,441 4.6 3,983,027 4.7
25 -29 3,541,009 4.2 3,557,779 4.2
30 -34 3,160,534 3.8 3,141,953 3.7
35 - 39 2,776,133 3.3 2,756,653 3.3
40 - 44 2,374,323 2.8 2,374,463 2.8
45 - 49 2,006,520 2.4 2,006,056 2.4
50 - 54 1,631,337 1.9 1,629,315 1.9
55 - 59 1,319,097 1.6 1,296,672 1.5
60 - 64 1,013,026 1.2 963,875 1.1
65 - 69 767,324 0.9 704,079 0.8
70 -74 546,329 0.6 475,228 0.6
75 - 79 374,459 0.4 298,154 0.4
80 + 330,630 0.4 232,487 0.3
All Ages 41,839,950 49.7 42,401,391 50.3
Total Population 84,241,341
Source: CIA World Factbook - This page was last updated on June 30, 2015
Pyramid 1 is Pyramid 2 is Pyramid 3 is Pyramid 4, Pyramid 5 is
typical of typical of typical of bell-shaped represents a
countries with countries that Western is a population
high CBR and are beginning European transitional experiencing
CDR, low to grow Countries. type of marked and
median age rapidly due to With low pyramid. rapid decline
and high DR marked levels of CBR Represents in fertility
decline in and CDR. a population
infant and median age with many
child mortality is highest and years of
DR is lowest. declining CBR
Dependents and CDR,
are mostly reverses
elderly fertility trend
 Describing the Age-Sex Composition of
the Population: Life Expectancy at Birth
Table 3 Expectation of Life at Birth in
Life expectancy at the Philippines, 1960-2009
Year Life Expectancy at birth (in
birth estimates the years)
average number of Male Female

years an infant is 1960 51.2 55.0

expected to live under 1970 54.2 57.2

the mortality 1980 59.8 63.4

1990 62.8 66.4
conditions for a given
2000 66.0 69.2
year 2005 68.90 73.03
2009 69.89 74.38
Source: World Bank— World Development
Indicators (2011)
Projected Life Expectancy at Birth, by Sex and
Five-Year Interval, Philippines: 2000 (Medium
Assumption)

Year Male Female

2000-2005 64.11 70.14

2005-2010 66.11 71.64

2010-2015 67.61 73.14
2015-2020 68.81 74.34
2020-2025 70.01 75.54

2025-2030 71.01 76.54

2030-2035 72.01 77.54

2035-2040 73.01 78.34

Describing the Age-Sex Composition of
the Population

Other population characteristics or

measures:
• Marital status
• Religious composition
• Educational attainment
• Occupation
Describing Population’s Distribution in
Space

• Urban-rural distribution compares the

proportion of people residing in the urban
and rural areas of a given community
Table 3. Percent Distribution of the Population by Urban-Rural Residence by Region, Philippines,
1990
Region Urban Rural Population Density
(per sq km)
I Ilocos 37.8 62.2 276.3
II Cagayan Valley 23.5 76.5 87.1
III Central Luzon 60.3 39.7 339.5
IV Southern Tagalog 51.1 48.9 175.8
V Bicol 31.2 68.8 221.5
VI Western Visayas 35.8 64.2 266.3
VII Central Visayas 40.4 59.6 306.5
VIII Eastern Visayas 31.2 68.8 142.3
IX Western Mindanao 30.7 69.3 169.1
X Northern Mindanao 43.4 56.6 123.6
XI Southern Mindanao 47.4 52.6 140.4
XII Central Mindanao 25.2 74.8 136.0
National Capital Region 100.0 0 12,433.0
Cordillera Autonomous 31.3 68.7 62.4
Region
Philippines 37.2 62.8 191.2
Source: NCSO 1990 Census of Population and Housing
Describing Population’s Distribution in
Space

• Population density shows the number of

people occupying a given land area

Number of people
Population Density = -------------------------
Land area (in m2 or km2)

Provides information about congestion in a place and

possible implications in terms of adequacy of basic health
services present in the community.
 1995 2000 2007
Population
Distribution (%)
Urban - 48.03 -
Rural - 51.97 -

Population 201 225 295

density (persons/
km²)

Average 5.0 5.0 4.8

household size

http://www.census.gov.ph/data/publications/pif2012_in_CD.pdf
 Population Density

psa.gov.ph 2012
Describing Population’s Distribution in
Space
• Crowding Index provides information about
adequacy of basic household facilities conducive
to health by describing the number of people
living in a household vis-à-vis number of rooms
used for sleeping

Number of persons living in a

household
Crowding Index = -----------------------------------------
Number of rooms used for sleeping