Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 12 (2011) 128–136

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Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/nonrwa

A mathematical model for unemployment

A.K. Misra ∗ , Arvind K. Singh
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi - 221 005, India

article info abstract

Article history: In this paper we have proposed and analyzed a non-linear mathematical model for
Received 14 September 2009 unemployment by considering three variables, namely the numbers of unemployed,
Accepted 1 June 2010 temporarily employed and regularly employed persons. The model is studied using
the stability theory of differential equations. It is found that the model has only one
Keywords: equilibrium, which is non-linearly stable under certain conditions. Numerical simulation
Unemployment
of the model has been carried out to confirm the analytical results.
Mathematical model
Regular employment
© 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Equilibria
Stability

1. Introduction

Nowadays, unemployment is a burning problem for all nations as it is widely related to social and economic factors. It
is a cause for concern among economists and politicians because of the strain that it places on the public budgets and tax
revenues of welfare states. Therefore, full employment has been a stated goal of many governments and a variety of programs
have been devised for attaining it. Unemployment can be defined as a state of worklessness for a person fit and willing
to work. Unemployment is continuously increasing in most of the countries of the world due to the enormous increase
in the population. Also the industrial environment is subject to ups and downs of trade cycles and globalization, causing
unemployment. Economic depression and ailing industries often cause close-downs, compelling the employees to become
unemployed. Technological advancement contributes to economic development, but unplanned and uncontrolled growth
of technology may not help in increasing employment if people are not appropriately trained and then remain unemployed.
These persons have paper qualifications but no employable skills. Self-employment reducing the unemployment in any
nation is a most desirable idea; however, it demands certain skills pertaining to a trade or service as well as requiring
certain expertise and finance [1,2].
In this paper we will deal with a social problem. We will model the problem of unemployment through non-linear
ordinary differential equations. We will consider the following three major variables in the above problem, which are as
follows:
(1) The number of unemployed persons,
(2) The number of temporarily employed persons.
(3) The number of regularly employed persons.
This work is motivated by [3], where a mathematical model for housing allocation of a population homeless due to natural
disaster was proposed and analyzed.
The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the basic model, Section 3 describes the existence of equilibria and
Section 4 describes the stability. In Section 5, we conducted some numerical computation by using MAPLE 7.0 for checking
the feasibility of analysis regarding stability conditions, described in Section 4.

∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +91 542 6703112.

E-mail addresses: akmisra@bhu.ac.in, akmisra_knp@yahoo.com (A.K. Misra), arvindksingh9@yahoo.co.in (A.K. Singh).

1468-1218/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.nonrwa.2010.06.002
 A.K. Misra, A.K. Singh / Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 12 (2011) 128–136 129

Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of the model.

2. The mathematical model

Let U, T and R represent the numbers of unemployed persons, temporarily employed persons and regularly employed
persons respectively at any time t. In the modeling process it is assumed that some of the unemployed persons may directly
get regular employment and some of the unemployed persons may become temporarily employed. It is also assumed that
temporarily employed persons will try to move from the temporarily employed class to the regularly employed class. It is
further assumed that some temporarily and regularly employed persons may leave their jobs and join the unemployed class.
The schematic diagram for this model is shown in Fig. 1.
In this model we assume that all entrants to the unemployment class are fully qualified (i.e. graduate or postgraduate)
for doing any job but that their skills lose relevance (or atrophy) over time, and it is assumed that the unemployed persons
are continuously increasing in number with a constant rate A and are migrating from their place of residence to other
places to obtain employment. The rate of migration of unemployed persons is assumed to be proportional to the number
of unemployed persons. It is also assumed that the total numbers of available temporary and regular vacancies are limited
and these are assumed to be constants.
The rate of change of the number of unemployed persons gaining regular employment will be jointly proportional to U
and to the number of available regular vacancies (Ra − R), where Ra is the total number of available regular vacancies.
Since the unemployed persons may become temporarily employed, the rate of change of the number of unemployed
persons becoming temporarily employed persons will be jointly proportional to U and to the number of available temporary
vacancies (Ta − T ), where Ta is the total number of available temporary vacancies. Thus the rate of change of the number of
unemployed persons U will be given by the following equation:
dU
= A − k1 U (Ra − R) − k2 U (Ta − T ) − α1 U + γ1 T + γ2 R, (1)
dt
where k1 , k2 are positive constants of proportionality, and α1 is a positive constant which represents the rate of migration
or death of unemployed persons. The positive constants γ1 and γ2 represent the rates of persons being fired from temporary
and regular jobs, respectively.
As some of the unemployed persons become temporarily employed, the rate of change in the number of temporarily
employed persons will be proportional to U (Ta − T ). Since it is assumed that the temporarily employed persons will try to
move from the temporarily employed class to the regularly employed class, the rate of change of the number of temporarily
employed persons will be jointly proportional to the number of temporarily employed persons T and the number of available
regular vacancies (Ra − R). Therefore we have
dT
= k2 U (Ta − T ) − k3 T (Ra − R) − α2 T − γ1 T (2)
dt
where k3 is a positive constant of proportionality and α2 is a positive constant, which represents the rate of retirement or
death of temporarily employed persons.
The rate of change of the number of regularly employed persons will be proportional to U (Ra − R), coming directly from
the unemployed class, and to T (Ra − R), are coming via the temporarily employed class. Therefore we have
dR
= (k1 U + k3 T )(Ra − R) − α3 R − γ2 R (3)
dt
where α3 is a positive constant which represents the rate of retirement or death of regularly employed persons.
Eqs. (1)–(3) together constitute the proposed model for unemployment.

3. Equilibrium analysis

The model system (1)–(3) has only one non-negative equilibrium, E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ), which may be obtained by solving the
following set of algebraic equations:
A − k1 U (Ra − R) − k2 U (Ta − T ) − α1 U + γ1 T + γ2 R = 0 (4)
130 A.K. Misra, A.K. Singh / Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 12 (2011) 128–136

50000
(8)

40000

30000

T
20000 (9)

10000 (U*, T*)

-10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

U
-10000

Fig. 2. Existence of (U ∗ , T ∗ ).

k2 U (Ta − T ) − k3 T (Ra − R) − α2 T − γ1 T = 0 (5)

(k1 U + k3 T )(Ra − R) − α3 R − γ2 R = 0. (6)

From Eq. (6), we get

(k1 U + k3 T )Ra
R= . (7)
α3 + γ2 + k1 U + k3 T
Using this value of R in Eqs. (4) and (5), we get the following equations in U and T :

k1 (α3 + γ2 )Ra U γ2 (k1 U + k3 T )Ra

A− − k2 U (Ta − T ) − α1 U + γ1 T + =0 (8)
α3 + γ2 + k1 U + k3 T α3 + γ2 + k1 U + k3 T
and

k3 (α3 + γ2 )Ra T
k2 U (Ta − T ) − − α2 T − γ1 T = 0. (9)
α3 + γ2 + k1 U + k3 T
Now to show the existence of equilibria, we plot the isoclines given by Eqs. (8) and (9).
From Eq. (8), we may easily note the following facts:

(i) For T = 0, Eq. (8) reduces to a quadratic equation in U. From this equation we get one positive root, which is less than
A+γ1 Ta +γ2 Ra
α
, whereas the other root will be negative.
1
(ii) For U = 0, Eq. (8) reduces to a quadratic equation in T ; both roots of T are negative.
α
(iii) T → Ta + k 1 as U → ∞.
2
γ
(iv) U → − k1 as T → ∞.
2

(v) dU
dT
is positive for U > 0 and 0 ≤ T ≤ Ta .

Similarly, from Eq. (9), we may easily note that:

(α3 +γ2 )(k3 Ra +α2 +γ1 )
(i) For U = 0, T = 0 and T = − k3 (α2 +γ1 )
, which is negative.
(ii) T = Ta is an asymptote.
(iii) dU
dT
is positive for U > 0 and 0 ≤ T ≤ Ta .

Hence the two isoclines given by (8) and (9) will intersect in the interior of the positive quadrant at (U ∗ , T ∗ ) (see Fig. 2).
Substituting U ∗ and T ∗ in Eq. (7), we get a positive value of R, say R∗ . Hence the model system (1)–(3) has only one non-
negative equilibrium, E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ).
Now we check the characteristics of the equilibrium values of the numbers of unemployed persons with respect to k3 ,
and unemployed persons, temporarily employed persons and regularly employed persons with respect to parameters Ra
and Ta .
 A.K. Misra, A.K. Singh / Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 12 (2011) 128–136 131

Table 1
Variation of U ∗ with k3 (for γ1 = γ2 = 0).
Sample No. k1 = 0.00004, k2 = 0.00003 k1 = 0.00003, k2 = 0.000035
k1 α2 − k2 α3 > 0 k1 α2 − k2 α3 < 0
k3 U∗ k3 U∗

1 0.00001 21 435 0.00001 21 596

2 0.00002 21 465 0.00002 21 577
3 0.00003 21 490 0.00003 21 562
4 0.00004 21 510 0.00004 21 549

3.1. Variation of U ∗ with k3

Let
k1 (α3 + γ2 )Ra U ∗ γ2 (k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )Ra
f (U ∗ , T ∗ , k3 ) = A − − k2 U ∗ (Ta − T ∗ ) − α1 U ∗ + γ1 T ∗ + , (10)
α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗
k3 (α3 + γ2 )Ra T ∗
g (U ∗ , T ∗ , k3 ) = k2 U ∗ (Ta − T ∗ ) − − α2 T ∗ − γ1 T ∗ . (11)
α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗
Then
∂f ∂g ∂f ∂g
dU ∗ ∂T ∗ ∂ k3
− ∂ k3 ∂T ∗
= ∂f ∂g ∂f ∂g
. (12)
dk3 −
∂U∗ ∂T ∗ ∂T ∗ ∂U∗
Now from Eq. (10) we have
∂f k1 (α3 + γ2 )Ra (α3 + k3 T ∗ )
=− − k2 (Ta − T ∗ ) − α1 (13)
∂U ∗ (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )2
∂f k3 (α3 + γ2 )Ra (γ2 + k1 U ∗ )
= + k2 U ∗ + γ1 (14)
∂T ∗ (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )2
∂f Ra (α3 + γ2 )(γ2 + k1 U ∗ )T ∗
= (15)
∂ k3 (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )2
and from Eq. (11) we have
∂g k1 k3 (α3 + γ2 )Ra T ∗
= + k2 (Ta − T ∗ ) (16)
∂U∗ (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )2
∂g k3 (α3 + γ2 )Ra (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ )
= − − k2 U ∗ − (α2 + γ1 ) (17)
∂T ∗ (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )2
∂g (α3 + γ2 )Ra (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ )T ∗
=− . (18)
∂ k3 (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )2
∂f ∂g ∂f ∂g dU ∗
In view of Eqs. (13), (14), (16) and (17) it is easy to see that ∂ U ∗ ∂ T ∗ − ∂ T ∗ ∂ U ∗ > 0, i.e. the denominator of dk3
is positive and
∗ ∗
therefore the sign of dUdk
depends on the numerator of dU dk
. Now
3 3

∂f ∂g ∂f ∂g (α3 + γ2 )Ra T ∗ [(α2 γ2 − α3 γ1 ) + (k1 α2 − k2 α3 ) U ∗ ]

− = .
∂ T ∂ k3
∗ ∂ k3 ∂ T ∗ (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )2
∗
Hence dU dk3
is positive or negative according as (α2 γ2 − α3 γ1 ) + (k1 α2 − k2 α3 ) U ∗ is positive or negative. Here we note
that if γ1 = γ2 = 0, i.e. if the shift from the regularly employed class to the unemployed class and from the temporarily
employed class to the unemployed class is zero then U ∗ increases as k3 increases provided (k1 α2 − k2 α3 ) > 0, whereas for
(k1 α2 − k2 α3 ) < 0, U ∗ decreases as k3 increases. This result is shown in Table 1 where we keep the other parameter values
the same as in (25).

3.2. Variation of U ∗ , T ∗ and R∗ with respect to Ta

Let
k1 (α3 + γ2 )Ra U ∗ γ2 (k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )Ra
f1 ( U ∗ , T ∗ , Ta ) = A − − k2 U ∗ (Ta − T ∗ ) − α1 U ∗ + γ1 T ∗ + , (19)
α3 + γ2 + k1 U∗ + k3 T∗ α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗
k3 (α3 + γ2 )Ra T ∗
g1 (U ∗ , T ∗ , Ta ) = k2 U ∗ (Ta − T ∗ ) − − α2 T ∗ − γ1 T ∗ . (20)
α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗
132 A.K. Misra, A.K. Singh / Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 12 (2011) 128–136

Then
∂ f1 ∂ g1 ∂ f1 ∂ g1 ∂ f1 ∂ g1 ∂ f1 ∂ g1
dU ∗ ∂ T ∗ ∂ Ta
− ∂ Ta ∂ T ∗ dT ∗ ∂ Ta ∂ U ∗
− ∂U∗ ∂ Ta
= ∂ f1 ∂ g 1 ∂ f1 ∂ g1
and = ∂ f1 ∂ g1 ∂ f1 ∂ g1
.
dTa − dTa −
∂U∗ ∂T ∗ ∂T ∗ ∂U∗ ∂U∗ ∂T ∗ ∂T ∗ ∂U∗
∂f ∂g ∂f ∂g ∂f ∂g ∂f ∂g ∂f ∂g ∂f ∂g dU ∗ dT ∗
It is easy to see that ∂ U1∗ ∂ T 1∗ − ∂ T1∗ ∂ U1∗ > 0, ∂ T1∗ ∂ T1 − ∂ T1 ∂ T 1∗ < 0 and ∂ T1 ∂ U1∗ − ∂ U1∗ ∂ T1 > 0; therefore dTa
< 0 and dTa
> 0.
a a a a
Now
(α3 + γ2 )Ra
Ra − R∗ = .
α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗
Differentiating the above equation with respect to Ta , we get
dR∗ (α3 + γ2 )Ra dU ∗ dT ∗
[ ]
= k1 + k 3 .
dTa (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )2 dTa dTa
∂ f1 ∂ g1 ∂ f1 ∂ g1
Let ∂U∗ ∂T ∗
− ∂T ∗ ∂U∗
= D > 0; therefore
dR∗ 1 (α3 + γ2 )Ra (k3 α1 − k1 α2 )
= ,
dTa D (α3 + γ2 + k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ )2
dR∗ dU ∗ dT ∗
which shows that dTa
> 0 provided k3 α1 − k1 α2 > 0. Similarly from Eqs. (7)–(9), we can easily note that dRa
< 0, dRa
<0
dR∗
and dRa
> 0.
The above analysis implies that the equilibrium level of the number of unemployed individuals decreases as the number
of regular or temporary vacancies increases. The equilibrium level of the number of temporarily employed individuals
decreases as the number of regular vacancies increases, whereas the equilibrium level of the number of temporarily
employed individuals increases as the number of temporary vacancies increases. The equilibrium level of the number
of regularly employed individuals increases as the number of regular vacancies increases whereas the equilibrium level
of the number of regularly employed individuals increases as the number of temporary vacancies increases only when
k3 α1 − k1 α2 > 0.

4. Stability analysis

In order to investigate the local stability behavior of equilibrium E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ), we compute the following variational
matrix for the model system (1)–(3) corresponding to the equilibrium E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ):

−p1 k2 U ∗ + γ1 k1 U ∗ + γ2
 
M = k2 (Ta − T ) ,
∗
−p 2 k3 T ∗
k1 (Ra − R∗ ) k3 (Ra − R∗ ) −p3
where p1 = k1 (Ra − R∗ ) + k2 (Ta − T ∗ ) + α1 , p2 = k2 U ∗ + k3 (Ra − R∗ ) + α2 + γ1 and p3 = (k1 U ∗ + k3 T ∗ ) + α3 + γ2 .
The characteristic equation of the above matrix is

λ3 + a1 λ2 + a2 λ + a3 = 0 (21)

where

a1 = p 1 + p 2 + p 3
a2 = [k1 (Ra − R∗ ) + α1 ]p2 + [k2 (Ta − T ∗ ) + k2 U ∗ + α1 + α2 + γ1 ]p3
+ k3 (Ra − R∗ )[k1 (U ∗ + T ∗ ) + k2 (Ta − T ∗ ) + α3 + γ2 ] + k1 α3 (Ra − R∗ ) + k2 α2 (Ta − T ∗ )
a3 = [k1 α3 (Ra − R∗ ) + α1 (k1 U ∗ + α3 + γ2 )]p2 + k2 α2 (Ta − T ∗ )p3
+ k3 (Ra − R∗ )[k1 α2 T ∗ + k2 α3 (Ta − T ∗ )] + k3 α1 T ∗ [k2 U ∗ + α2 + γ1 ].
Clearly a1 , a2 , a3 are all positive and a little algebraic manipulation yields that a1 a2 −a3 > 0. Now by using the Routh–Hurwitz
criterion, we can say that the roots of Eq. (21) are either negative or have negative real part. Thus we have the following
theorem.

Theorem 1. The equilibrium E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ) is locally asymptotically stable without any condition.

In the following, we will show the non-linear stability of the equilibrium E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ) by using a suitable Lyapunov
function. To study the non-linear stability behavior of E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ), we need the bounds of the dependent variables involved.
For this we find the region of attraction [4,5] given in the form of the following lemma:
 A.K. Misra, A.K. Singh / Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 12 (2011) 128–136 133

Lemma 1. We have the set

A∗
 
Ω = (U , T , R) : 0 ≤ U ≤ , 0 ≤ T ≤ Ta , 0 ≤ R ≤ Ra (22)
α1
where A∗ = A + γ1 Ta + γ2 Ra is a region of attraction for the model system (1)–(3) and attracts all solutions initiating in the
interior of the non-negative octant, provided that (U (0), T (0), R(0)) ≥ (0, 0, 0).
Proof of Lemma 1. From Eq. (3) we note that for R ≥ Ra , the growth rate of R becomes negative as U and T are both positive.
Thus we have R ≤ Ra provided R(0) ≤ Ra . Similarly from Eq. (2) we get T ≤ Ta .
Now from Eq. (1) we have
dU (t )
≤ A + γ1 Ta + γ2 Ra − α1 U (t ).
dt
This implies that
A + γ1 Ta + γ2 Ra
lim sup U (t ) ≤ ,
t →+∞ α1
and our lemma is proved. 

Theorem 2. The equilibrium E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ) is non-linearly stable in the region Ω if the following inequalities are satisfied:
(I) k2 (γ1 + k2 U ∗ )Ta2 < α1 (α2 + γ1 )T ∗ ,
(II) k1 (γ2 + k1 U ∗ )R2a < α1 (α3 + γ2 )R∗ and
(III) k23 T ∗ [k2 γ2 (Ra − R∗ ) + k1 (k2 Ra U ∗ + γ1 R∗ )]2 < k1 k2 R∗ (γ1 + k2 U ∗ )(α2 + γ1 )(γ2 + k1 U ∗ )(α3 + γ2 ).
Proof. Let us consider the following positive definite function, corresponding to the system (1)–(3), for the equilibrium
E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ):

1 1 1
V = (U − U ∗ )2 + m1 (T − T ∗ )2 + m2 (R − R∗ )2 (23)
2 2 2
where the coefficients m1 and m2 are arbitrary constants to be chosen suitably later.
Differentiating Eq. (23) above with respect to t, along the solutions of the model system (1)–(3), we get
dV
= −[α1 + k1 (Ra − R) + k2 (Ta − T )](U − U ∗ )2 − m1 [α2 + γ1 + k2 U + k3 (Ra − R)](T − T ∗ )2
dt
− m2 [α3 + γ2 + k1 U + k3 T ](R − R∗ )2 + [γ1 + m1 k2 (Ta − T ∗ ) + k2 U ∗ ](U − U ∗ )(T − T ∗ )
+ [γ2 + m2 k1 (Ra − R∗ ) + k1 U ∗ ](U − U ∗ )(R − R∗ ) + k3 [m2 (Ra − R∗ ) + m1 T ∗ ](T − T ∗ )(R − R∗ ). (24)
γ1 U∗ γ2 U∗
Choosing m1 = k T ∗ + m2 = k R∗ +
T∗
, then R∗
will be negative definite inside the region of attraction Ω if
, dV
dt
2 1
the inequalities (I), (II) and (III) are satisfied. Hence under these conditions the equilibrium E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ) is non-linearly
stable. 

5. Simulation

Since the actual data are not available, to check the feasibility of our analysis regarding stability conditions, we have
conducted some numerical computations using MAPLE 7.0 by choosing the following set of parameter values in the model
system (1)–(3):
A = 65 000, k1 = .00004, k2 = .00003, k3 = .00001, Ra = 25 000, Ta = 30 000
α1 = 2, α2 = α3 = 0.9, γ1 = 0.0009, γ2 = 0.0008. (25)
∗ ∗ ∗
The equilibrium values for the model are obtained as U = 21 439, T = 11 594, R = 12 985.
The eigenvalues of the variational matrix corresponding to the equilibrium E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ) for the model system (1)–(3)
are −3.4604, −1.2153, −1.8957.
As all the eigenvalues are found to be negative, the equilibrium E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ) is locally asymptotically stable. It may
be noted that for the above set of parameter values, the non-linear stability conditions are also satisfied. The results from
the numerical simulation are displayed graphically in Figs. 3–7. A computer simulation is also performed for different initial
values and the results are displayed graphically in Figs. 3 and 4. In these figures, the variations in the number of unemployed
persons with the numbers of temporarily employed persons and of regularly employed persons are shown, respectively. All
the trajectories starting from different initial values reach the equilibrium values given by the equilibrium E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ ).
Hence we infer that the system is non-linearly stable inside the region of attraction around this equilibrium E (U ∗ , T ∗ , R∗ )
for the above set of parameters given in (25).
134 A.K. Misra, A.K. Singh / Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 12 (2011) 128–136

12000

11800

11600 (U*, T*)

Temporary employed persons T

11400

11200

11000
21000 21200 21400 21600 21800 22000
Unemployed persons U

Fig. 3. Non-linear stability in the U–T plane.

13400

13200
Regular employed persons R

13000 (U*, R*)

12800

12600

21000 21200 21400 21600 21800 22000

Unemployed persons U

Fig. 4. Non-linear stability in the U–R plane.

22000 Ra = 25000

Ra = 35000
20000

18000
Ra = 45000

16000
Unemployed persons U

14000

12000

10000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
time t

Fig. 5. Variation in the number of unemployed persons with time for different values of Ra .

In Figs. 5–7, we have shown the variations of the numbers of unemployed, temporarily employed and regularly employed
persons with respect to time t for different values of Ra . From these figures, it is clear that as Ra increases, the numbers
of unemployed persons and temporarily employed persons decrease whereas the number of regularly employed persons
increases. Similarly we can also show that as Ta increases, the number of temporarily employed persons increases whereas
the number of unemployed persons decreases. In this case the number of regularly employed persons increases or decreases
depending on whether k3 α1 − k1 α2 > 0 or k3 α1 − k1 α2 < 0.
 A.K. Misra, A.K. Singh / Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 12 (2011) 128–136 135

12000 Ra = 25000

11000 Ra = 35000

10000

Temporary employed persons T

Ra = 45000
9000

8000

7000

6000

5000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
time t

Fig. 6. Variation in the number of temporarily employed persons with time for different values of Ra .

22000
Ra = 45000
20000

18000
Ra = 35000
16000
Regular employed persons R

14000

12000 Ra = 25000

10000

8000

6000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
time t

Fig. 7. Variation in the number of regularly employed persons with time for different values of Ra .

6. Conclusion

In this paper, a non-linear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed in order to study the problem of unemployment.
It is assumed that the rate of inflow of individuals to the unemployed class is a constant. The total numbers of temporary
as well as regular vacancies are limited and these are assumed to be constants. The model is analyzed by using the stability
theory for differential equations and numerical simulation. It has been shown that as the number of regular vacancies
increases, the numbers of unemployed and temporarily employed individuals decrease whereas the number of regularly
employed individuals increases. It is also shown that as the total number of temporary vacancies increases, the number
of temporarily employed individuals increases whereas the number of unemployed individuals decreases. The number of
regularly employed individuals increases as the number of temporary vacancies increases only when k3 α1 − k1 α2 > 0. For
k1 α2 − k2 α3 < 0, the number of unemployed individuals decreases further as the rate of the moving of temporarily employed
individuals into regular employment (i.e. k3 ) increases, provided the rate of shifting from the regularly and temporarily
employed class to the unemployed class is zero. This shows that if one wants to reduce unemployment, then the rate of
transfer of individuals from the temporarily employed class to the regularly employed class should be increased only when
k1 α2 − k2 α3 < 0. The analysis of the model also suggests that if appropriate steps are not taken soon, unemployment
will increase very fast, and it will be difficult to recover from the problem of unemployment. This model may be further
generalized by considering additional variables governing new avenues of employment, whether by government or private
sectors.

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for his or her critical review and useful suggestions, which improved
the paper. The first Author (A.K. Misra) is thankful to Prof. Peeyush Chandra, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Prof.
A.K. Sharma, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, IIT Kanpur for the discussion and encouragement. Authors are
136 A.K. Misra, A.K. Singh / Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications 12 (2011) 128–136

also thankful to DST – Centre for Interdisciplinary Mathematical Sciences, BHU Varanasi for help and support during the
period of this research.

References

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