Professional Documents
Culture Documents
It is required to know
• Timing of treatments
• Amount of timber available in future times
• Tree and volume distribution by DBH classes
• Thinning opportunities
• Differences in stand structures
• Influence of different management strategies
• Current/future assortment of timber products
Goals and Objectives
Goal: Gain an understanding on how P. occidentalis grow
in three ecological zones within the study area,
determine which zone is best in terms of forest
production, and find by appropriate selection and
testing, the needed tools to assist in planning for
sustain yield.
Ecological Zone
• Sub-objectives
– Compare four total bole volume equations.
– Estimate volume proportion for predefined upper
stem diameters.
– Estimate merchantable volume with the best TVPR
system.
– Compare two taper models in terms for merchantable
volume estimation.
– Compare volume estimation with the best taper and
TVPR models.
– Life zone comparisons.
Objective 1: Data collection methods
Taper
models Upper stem diameters
Calibration 1775 812 1102
Validation 444 228 275
Objective 1: Total bole volume and volume
proportion models
Vol ib = b 0D 2
H + ε
Vol ib = b 0 + b 1D 2
+ b 2H + b 3D 2
H + ε
Vol ib = b 0 + b 1D 2
H + ε
Vol ib = e b1
D b 2
H b 3
ε
R = 1 − b 0 (d b
i
1
D b 2
)
Objective 1: Taper models
RMSE
MSE
Upper Stem Diameters
-0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10
B%
B ias
8 cm
RMSE
MSE
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10
B%
B ias
4 cm
RMSE
MSE
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10
cm T aper
TVPR
Objective 1: Fit statistics of TVPR and Taper
models for volume content in the
Intermediate Zone
B%
B ia s
14 cm
RMSE
Upper Stem Diameters
MSE
RMSE
MSE
RMSE
MSE
RMSE
MSE
Upper Stem Diameters
RMSE
MSE
RMSE
MSE
Weibull
Parameters Stem
estimated by Frequencies
by DBH Class
PPM and PRM
Objective 2: Estimating volume of plot
Objective 2: Ranking of methods according to
yield predictions and number of trees
per hectare in each diameter class
Parameter Prediction Parameter Recovery
Modified
Maximum Method of CDF
Statistic Likelihood Moments Percentiles Regression
RMSE 81.61 111.49 121.35 93.14
BIAS 53.44 94.63 101.64 64.45
BIAS (%) 23.84 34.23 53.07 33.66
SSRR 10.63 5.63 31.03 17.86
Error Index* 346 397 333 295
RankGFS 1 3 4 2
RankEI 3 4 2 1
*Reynolds et al. 1988.
Objective 2: Coefficients and fit statistics for the
independent variables of the
PRM_CDF method
Standard
AIC BIC
Parameter Effect Estimate Error P Value Variance Structure
P P M -M L
65
P R M -C D F
60
P R M -P C T
55 P P M -M M E
50 O BSERVED
45
Tree Frequency
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
20 25 30 35
D B H C lass (cm )
Objective 2: Summary on diameter distributions
• Yield predictions
– Limitations
• Flexibility of the Weibull
• Suitable stand characteristics to predict the
Weibull parameters
– AGE, TPH, SI, SDI, HT
Objective 3: Predicting individual diameter
growth for P. occidentalis, Sw.
Sub-objectives
• Predict future diameter (FDM) using OLS and
mixed models,
– choose the best model approach to predict FD
• Predict periodic annual diameter increment
(PADIM) using OLS and mixed models,
– choose the best model approach to model PADI
• Estimate both FD and PADI with the best FDM
• Estimate both FD and PADI with the best PADIM
– Choose the best model (FDM or PADIM) to predict
growth of individual P. occidentalis trees
Objective 3: Data collection methods
• Calibration set: 1047 trees,
• Validation set: 204 trees
• Age range: 21 - 46 years
• Density: 192 - 950 stems per ha
• Basal area: 9.26 - 33.39 m2
• Site density index (Reineke): 91.18 - 273.22
• Site index (40 year index age): 13 - 30.
Objective 3: Year of measurement in each of
the plots
Plot # 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
Humid
8 X X X X X
9 X X X X X
10 X X X X
13 X X X X X
14 X X X X X
15 X X X X X
16 X X X X X
17 X X X
18 X X X X
Intermediate
1 X X X X X
3 X X X X X
5 X X X X X
6 X X X X
11 X X X
12 X X X
17 X X X
Dry
101 X X X X X X X
102 X X X X X X X X
103 X X X X
108 X X X X
109 X X X X
110 X X X X
111 X X X X
112 X X X X
115 X X
116 X X
Objective 3: Explanatory variables for
individual diameter growth
prediction
• Predictor variables used for model building were related to
time, individual tree size, stand competition and site
productivity.
• Stand competition was measured by density related
variables,
– TPH,
– BAPH (m2 ha−1),
– SDI (Reineke’s)
– CCI (tree status )
– BAL (competition index)
• Measure of site productivity, (site index, base age 40)
• Individual tree size (DBH)
• Time (linear, quadratic)
Objective 3: Selection of best model to predict
diameter growth
Objective 3: Goodness-of-fit statistics to estimate
periodic annual diameter increment
CALIBRATION VALIDATION
MIXED MIXED
STATISTIC OLS MODEL OLS MODEL
MODEL MODEL
MSE 0.0690 0.0552 0.0679 0.0550
RMSE 0.2620 0.2349 0.2605 0.2340
BIAS 0.0910 -0.0003 0.0958 0.0140
RELATIVE
29.5100 0.0980 30.1937 4.6500
BIAS
MAD 0.1940 0.1793 0.2000 0.1850
R2 N/A 0.1650 N/A 0.1700
Objective 3: Goodness-of-fit statistics to
estimate future diameter
CALIBRATION VALIDATION
MIXED MIXED
STATISTIC OLS MODEL OLS MODEL
MODEL MODEL
MSE 12.2156 0.4108 15.257 0.075
RMSE 3.4951 0.6409 3.906 0.037
BIAS 0.5863 -0.0610 0.199 0.407
RELATIVE
2.8456 0.2959 0.905 1.853
BIAS
MAD 2.7170 0.4489 15.257 1.075
R2 0.7575 0.9918 0.716 0.980
Objective 3: Distribution of errors when
predicting future diameter
1-YEAR HENCE 2-YEAR HENCE PADIM
2
FDM 2 PADIM 2
FDM 2
RESIDUAL (cm)
RESIDUAL (cm)
RESIDUAL (cm)
RESIDUAL (cm)
0 0 0 0
-2 -2 -2 -2
0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50
2
3-YEAR HENCE 2 2
4-YEAR HENCE 2
RESIDUAL (cm)
RESIDUAL (cm)
RESIDUAL (cm)
RESIDUAL (cm)
0 0 0 0
-2 -2 -2 -2
0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50
2
5-YEAR HENCE 2 2
6-YEAR HENCE 2
RESIDUAL (cm)
RESIDUAL (cm)
RESIDUAL (cm)
RESIDUAL (cm)
0 0 0 0
-2 -2 -2 -2
0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
0 .1 4 3 YE A R IN C R E M E N T
0 .1 2
MSE-PADIM
0 .1 0
0 .0 8
0 .0 6
0 .0 4
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
4 YE A R IN C R E M E N T
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
D B H C la s s (c m ) P A D IM
FDM
Objective 3: MSE behavior when predicting
future diameter with FDM and
PADIM
2.0
0.8
1 YEAR HENCE 2 YEAR HENCE
0.6 1.5
0.4
ERROR_FDM
ERROR_FDM
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
-0.2 0.0
-0.4
-0.5
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
D B H C las s (c m ) D B H C las s (c m )
3 1.6
3 YEAR HENCE 1.4 4 YEAR HENCE
1.2
2 1.0
0.8
0.6
ERROR_FDM
ERROR_FDM
MSE
1 0.4
0.2
0.0
0 -0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-1 -0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-2
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
D B H C las s (c m ) D B H C las s (c m )
2.0 5.5
1.8
1.6 5 YEAR HENCE 5.0
4.5
6 YEAR HENCE
1.4 4.0
1.2
1.0 3.5
3.0
ERROR_FDM
ERROR_FDM
0.8
0.6 2.5
0.4 2.0
0.2 1.5
0.0 1.0
-0.2 0.5
-0.4 0.0
-0.6
-0.8 -0.5
-1.0 -1.0
-1.2 -1.5
-1.4 -2.0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
D B H C las s (c m ) D B H C las s (c m )
FDM
D B H C la s s (c m )
P A D IM
Objective 3: Advantages and disadvantages of
FDM and PADIM
• Ecological implications
• Social implications
• Model use
• Limitations
• Future Research
Contributions to scholarship