y = 0,7092

Periodo Valor historico Pronostico Lineal Error Ratio

32 3110.29 3140.2944 30.0044 0.99044535
31 3119.42 3139.5852 20.1652 0.99357711
30 3112.18 3138.876 26.696 0.99149504
29 3118.36 3138.1668 19.8068 0.99368842
28 3141.4 3137.4576 3.9424 1.00125656
27 3141.4 3136.7484 4.6516 1.00148294
26 3141.4 3136.0392 5.3608 1.00170942
25 3141.4 3135.33 6.07 1.001936
24 3155.27 3134.6208 20.6492 1.00658746
23 3135.56 3133.9116 1.6484 1.00052599
22 3131.1 3133.2024 2.1024 0.99932899
21 3132.61 3132.4932 0.1168 1.00003729
20 3115.94 3131.784 15.844 0.9949409
19 3115.94 3131.0748 15.1348 0.99516626
18 3115.94 3130.3656 14.4256 0.99539172
17 3110.46 3129.6564 19.1964 0.99386629
16 3108.54 3128.9472 20.4072 0.99347793
15 3094.05 3128.238 34.188 0.98907116
14 3089.4 3127.5288 38.1288 0.98780865
13 3102.61 3126.8196 24.2096 0.99225744
12 3102.61 3126.1104 23.5004 0.99248254
11 3102.61 3125.4012 22.7912 0.99270775
10 3115.7 3124.692 8.992 0.99712228
9 3163.46 3123.9828 39.4772 1.01263682
8 3157.52 3123.2736 34.2464 1.01096491
7 3167.86 3122.5644 45.2956 1.0145059
6 3150.58 3121.8552 28.7248 1.0092012
5 3150.58 3121.146 29.434 1.00943051
4 3150.58 3120.4368 30.1432 1.00965993
3 3160.52 3119.7276 40.7924 1.01307563
2 3146.14 3119.0184 27.1216 1.00869556
1 3136.59 3118.3092 18.2808 1.00586241
33 3141.0036 1.0092012
MAD 20.985875
 y = 0,7092x + 3117,6
F.E con n=6 Pronostico Error Error Pronostico Ajuste Ajuste con alfa α=0,8
0.999094131 3137.449704531 2.844695469 3137.449704531 3129.31
1.0005508527 3141.3146488521 1.7294488521 3141.3146488521 3114.094625
0.9990315934 3135.8362919066 3.0397080934 3135.8362919066 3118.354925
0.9980437919 3132.0278925571 6.1389074429 3132.0278925571 3113.414985
1.0001691384 3137.9882646408 0.5306646408 3137.9882646408 3117.370997
1.0032607667 3146.9766048228 10.2282048228 3146.9766048228 3136.5941994
0.999094131 3133.1983591849 2.8408408151 3133.1983591849 3140.43883988
1.0005508527 3137.0571048639 1.7271048639 3137.0571048639 3141.207767976
0.9990315934 3131.5852126702 3.0355873298 3131.5852126702 3141.3615535952
0.9980437919 3127.781016614 6.130583386 3127.781016614 3152.488310719
1.0001691384 3133.732344923 0.529944923 3133.732344923 3138.9456621438
1.0032607667 3142.7075296082 10.2143296082 3142.7075296082 3132.6691324288
0.999094131 3128.9470138389 2.8369861612 3128.9470138389 3132.6218264858
1.0005508527 3132.7995608756 1.7247608756 3132.7995608756 3119.2763652972
0.9990315934 3127.3341334337 3.0314665663 3127.3341334337 3116.6072730594
0.9980437919 3123.5341406709 6.1222593291 3123.5341406709 3116.0734546119
1.0001691384 3129.4764252051 0.5292252051 3129.4764252051 3111.5826909224
1.0032607667 3138.4384543936 10.2004543936 3138.4384543936 3109.1485381845
0.999094131 3124.6956684928 2.8331315072 3124.6956684928 3097.0697076369
1.0005508527 3128.5420168874 1.7224168874 3128.5420168874 3090.9339415274
0.9990315934 3123.0830541973 3.0273458027 3123.0830541973 3100.2747883055
0.9980437919 3119.2872647278 6.1139352722 3119.2872647278 3102.1429576611
1.0001691384 3125.2205054873 0.5285054873 3125.2205054873 3102.5165915322
1.0032607667 3134.169379179 10.186579179 3134.169379179 3113.0633183065
0.999094131 3120.4443231467 2.8292768533 3120.4443231467 3153.3806636613
1.0005508527 3124.2844728992 1.7200728992 3124.2844728992 3156.6921327323
0.9990315934 3118.8319749609 3.0232250391 3118.8319749609 3165.6264265465
0.9980437919 3115.0403887847 6.1056112153 3115.0403887847 3153.5892853093
1.0001691384 3120.9645857695 0.5277857695 3120.9645857695 3151.1818570619
1.0032607667 3129.9003039644 10.1727039644 3129.9003039644 3150.7003714124
0.999094131 3116.1929778007 2.8254221994 3116.1929778007 3158.5560742825
1.0005508527 3120.026928911 1.7177289109 3120.026928911 3148.6232148565
0.9990315934 3137.9618315248 3.0417684752 3137.9618315248 3138.9966429713
MAD 3.9336570376 MAD

Pronostico Final
 Error Ajuste con alfa α=0,1 Error
19.023125 3129.31 19.023125
5.325375 3127.4108125 7.9908125
6.174925 3114.6271625 2.4471625
4.945015 3117.7374325 0.6225675
24.029003 3113.9094865 27.4905135
4.8058006 3119.7738973 21.6261027
0.96116012 3137.07477946 4.32522054
0.19223202 3140.534955892 0.86504411
13.9084464 3141.2269911784 14.0430088
16.9283107 3142.7523982357 7.19239824
7.84566214 3150.7954796471 19.6954796
0.05913243 3138.1610959294 5.55109593
16.6818265 3132.6632191859 16.7232192
3.3363653 3130.9536438372 15.0136438
0.66727306 3118.9427287674 3.00272877
5.61345461 3116.5405457535 6.08054575
3.04269092 3115.5121091507 6.97210915
15.0985382 3111.2784218301 17.2284218
7.66970764 3107.638684366 18.2386844
11.6760585 3096.3027368732 6.30726313
2.33521169 3092.1015473747 10.5084526
0.46704234 3100.5083094749 2.10169053
13.1834085 3102.189661895 13.5103381
50.3966817 3103.834932379 59.6250676
4.13933634 3118.1029864758 39.4170135
11.1678673 3153.7945972952 14.0654027
15.0464265 3157.808919459 7.22891946
3.00928531 3164.1217838918 13.5417839
0.60185706 3153.2883567784 2.70835678
9.81962859 3151.1216713557 9.39832864
12.4160743 3151.6823342711 5.54233427
12.0332149 3157.3144668542 20.7244669
3147.4198933709
9.45625427 MAD 13.0878532
 Dolar x Mes
3180.00

3160.00

3140.00

3120.00 Comportamiento Dolar

Prediccion
3100.00

3080.00

3060.00

3040.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31

Dolar x Mes
3180.00

3160.00

3140.00
f(x) = 0.7091715543x + 3117.6117943548
R² = 0.0928058675
3120.00

3100.00

3080.00

3060.00

3040.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

COMPARATIVO DEL PRECIO DEL DOLAR HISTORICO Y EL PRONOSTICO AJUSTE

3180.00
3160.00
3140.00
3120.00
PRECIO

3100.00
3080.00
3060.00
3040.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
PERIODO

Valor historico Pronostico Ajuste

 3100.00

PRECI
3080.00
3060.00
3040.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
PERIODO

Valor historico Pronostico Ajuste

 COMPARATIVO DEL PRECIO DEL DOLAR HISTORICO Y EL PRONOSTICO CON ALFA 0,8 COMPARATIVO D
3180.00 3180.00
3160.00 3160.00
3140.00 3140.00
3120.00 3120.00
PRECIO

PRECIO
tamiento Dolar 3100.00 3100.00
on 3080.00 3080.00
3060.00 3060.00
3040.00 3040.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415
PERIODO PERI

Valor historico Ajuste con alfa α=0,8 Valor historico

COMPARATIVO DEL PRECIO DEL DOLAR HISTORICO Y EL PRONOSTICO CON ALFA 0,1
3180.00
3160.00
3140.00
3120.00
PRECIO

3100.00
3080.00
3060.00
3040.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
PERIODO

6 27 28 29 30 31 32 Valor historico Ajuste con alfa α=0,1

PRONOSTICO AJUSTE
 COMPARATIVO DEL PRECIO DEL DOLAR HISTORICO Y EL PRONOSTICO CON ALFA 0,1
3180.00
3160.00
3140.00
3120.00
PRECIO

3100.00
3080.00
3060.00
3040.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
PERIODO

Valor historico Pronostico Error