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assessment, Mongolia
B.Burmaajav
October 13, 2010
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Climate Change and Harsh winter
Climate Change and Flood
Assessment objective
• The goal of the assessment was to determine the association between
climate change and human health, and to develop recommendations for
further action for Climate Change and Health.
• Objectives were:
• Steps:
▫ Methodology training: Feb.2009
▫ Establishment 4 teams: March 2009
▫ Development of assessment methodology: March,
2009
▫ Discussion of the methodology at Acad.Council:
March, 2009
▫ Data collection: March-May, 2009
▫ Data analysing: May-June, 2009
▫ Report writing: July, 2009
▫ National symposium: CC&H, 29 July, 2009
Scope of the assessment
• Mortality
Collected data Sampling area Period
Total mortality UB city and aimags Yearly, 1990-2008
We used data and other materials from the database and study reports of
NGEI on aridity index (ratio of precipitation and potential
evopotranspiration) according to meteorological observation for the period
1940-2008.
Major findings, air group
Total mortality Mortality rate from CVDs Mortality rate from RSDs
90.0 82.7 80.2
79.0
80.0 75.7
70.7
70.0 66.4 64.9 63.5
60.8 61.7 59.0 60.4 60.7 60.8 60.7 60.7 61.3 60.8
60.0 56.8
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
3000
700.0
2500 600.0
per 10 000 population
500.0
2000
400.0
1974
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
0
1974
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
9 3
8
2.5
7
6 2
5
1.5
4
3 1
2
0.5
1
0
0
I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI
I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI
Acute respiratory disease per 10,000 Prevalence of asthma, by year and month,
population, by year and month in 2003-2008, per 10,000 pop.
Ulaanbaatar, 2003-2008
20 7
6
10000 õ¿í àì ä
15
5
4
10
3
2
5
0 0
I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI I III V VII IX XI
Health parameters
Hypertension 15.99 (2.06) 17.1 (2.07) 16.29 (2.28)
Intracerebral hemorrhage 1.84 (0.41) 2.18 (0.58) 1.97 (0.46)
Cerebral infraction 0.35 (0.14) 0.42 (0.24) 0.39 (0.17)
Acute respiratory infections 0.76 (0.27) 3.56 (2.11) 1.52 (1.16)
Asthma 1.28 (0.31) 1.88 (0.42) 1.46 (0.27)
Angina pectoris 5.65 (0.59) 6.52 (0.83) 6.00 (0.69)
Acute pneumonia 0.46 (0.17) 0.87 (0.39) 0.52 (0.20)
Air quality parameters
SO2 (Sulfur dioxide) 3.18 (1.20) 27.99 (6.68) 10.01 (6.50)
NO2 (Nitrogen dioxide) 28.59 (5.10) 37.62 (4.91) 30.03 (6.45)
There is a correlation analysis between angina pectoris and weather parameters, and
between respiratory diseases, air pollutants and weather parameters.
Major findings, water group
4000
3500
3000
2500
0
2000
1500
1000
500
0 -25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Morbidity Temperature
90
100
80
80
70
60
60
50 40
40
20
30
0
20
-20
10
0 -40
2008
2006
2007
2008
2006
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2006
2007
2008
2006
2007
2007
Central Eastern Gobi Western City
2 140
120
1
100
1
80
1
60
1
40
1
20
0
0
0 -20
0 -40
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1996
1997
2006
2007
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Central Eastern Gobi Western City
Per 10000 population Precipitation Temp_average
140
10.0
120
100
8.0
80
6.0 60
40
4.0
20
0
2.0
-20
0.0 -40
2007
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1996
1997
1998
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1999
2000
2001
2002
Central Eastern Gobi Western City
0 .3
0 .2 5
0 .2
0 .15
0 .1
0 .0 5
Tick borne encephalitis has been registered in Mongolia since 1969. An increase in cases
was observed between 1977 and 1986. Since 2002, morbidity rates have again started to
increase
Extreme weather and Human Health
• Based on the linear trend of data collected from 41 meteorological
stations between 1940 and 2007, average annual temperature has
increased by 2.1°C
80.0
6000
70.0
Number of hot days
5000
60.0
50.0 4000
40.0 3000
30.0
2000
20.0
1000
10.0
0.0 0
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
However mortality and morbidity data is only available over in a relatively short
time period. The comparison showed that both the number of hot days and
mortality due to CVD have increases since 1990. As the frequency of the heat
waves increases, there are direct and indirect impacts on human health
Major challenges
• The biggest challenge was lacking of the standardized information
•Daily health data on assessment period (1960-2009)
•Health data was not sufficient for revealing a climate change health impact
•Water quality data was not available for conducting an assessment
•It was new approach and new topic for the team (stakeholders were not well informed,
lacking with knowledge and etc)
•Duration and capacity (both technical and financial) was not sufficient
Assessment quality
• Due to data lacking some of results were not
completed the initial goal (water related diseases)