The Future of International Politics:

The Philippine Context

Kay-ann Choi

Movies such as back to the future, time-travelers, and many

science fiction films gives us the idea of what our future would
looked like. Some of the ideas in the film came into life and of
course some did not. But unlike the films where ones imagination
is the limit in the real world there are so many things that we
should keep and mind in order for us to anticipate or to be like
Nostradamus in order for us to predict what will be the future of
POLITICS, in general sense. Let us dig deep using the lenses of a
future political scientist.

There are many factors that can simply alter the future of the
world and all of it matters especially to our country Philippines
being very much dependent on United States as a world power. Since
states are considered the principal actors in international
politics, and they are presumed to be rational egoists, moral
values are thought to belong solely to the domestic sphere. The
self-interest of states negates agreement on universal moral
principles.

Cooperative arrangements between states are thought to survive

only for as long as states perceive them to be in their interest,
and multilateral institutions are thought to exist at the whim of
the interests of the major powers. Such as the relationship of the
China-Philippines-America

Human nature being composed of a greater number of facets also

perceived to permeate the flow of International Politics. The
conception of human nature neglects those elements that require an
ability to capture the manner in which perceptions and norms may
alter behavior and may, indeed, be at least partly constitutive of
self. This indicates that shifts in the distribution of military
power may form only one explanation for change and transformation
within the international system. Norms and perceptions are also
likely to account for change and transformation.
Hypothetically, there may or may not be an invasion coming for the
Philippines. The South China Sea dispute still prevails and the
Philippines has calmed this down thanks to Duterte who is willing
to open negotiations with China. However, if our future presidents
become pro-American again and severely anti-Chinese, we may just
face an invasion from China and that will heavily destroy our
economy and heavily destroy the good future that people are now
speculating.

Moreover, states can no longer ensure their security simply through

self-help. Many of the threats that they face originate not from
other states, but from non-state actors, many of whom may act
transnationally. The increasing attention devoted to culture, for
instance, reflects the importance of large collective identities
in global politics. We cannot afford to negate the importance of
cultural issues in a world marked by increased human mobility and
communications. When images can be broadcast simultaneously in
various areas of the globe, the treatment or activities of a group
could affect those of fellow members of the group in other
countries.

Moreover, the dangers posed by non-state actors are in many

instances non-military in nature. Today, national security
analysts count the consequences of global warming, such as extreme
weather and water shortage, as well as the spread of infectious
disease, cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure, and so on, as
potential threats to security. Infrastructure has been on the rise
lately as well, just as Duterte promised, ‘build, build, build.’
Again, this depends on future administrations if they will continue
on with this approach or if they will scrap it for a more societal-
driven progress for example.

High politics is therefore not necessarily the most effective focus

of global politics. Moreover, events in one area of the world can
have an almost immediate impact in another due to the rapidity and
availability of information flows. Addressing the dangers posed by
non-state actors requires cooperation with other states and a
different range of “security tools” — not just military means.

The very controversial War on Drugs has been on the all-time high
in the Philippines, we have a president and government that is
heavily chasing down on drugs and its users. We have seen lower
crime rates and drug abuses as a result. However, this was done
through a president that is thick-skinned and intensely passionate
in completing this job. But if he fails to do so by 2022, it all
depends on his successor to continue his legacy, or it will be a
repeat cycle with drugs increasing in presence again.

Given that security and prosperity are highly dependent on

cooperative relations with other states, we cannot assume that
relations between states are necessarily principally governed by
competition. Increased interdependence means that absolute gains
are possible and that global politics ought not to be a
priori zero-sum as realism suggests. This implies that even if a
state possesses a disproportionate degree of power, other states
may not form alliances against it. Indeed, it is far more likely
in today’s world that they would ally themselves with the most
powerful state, if that power were constituted primarily through
capacities other than solely military power.

We can also assume that state power is derived from the control of
resources. The need to control resources derives from the
assumption that resources are scarce and that there exists no
overarching authority to regulate their distribution. Competition
for resources is, thus, presumed to be omnipresent. Yet, the
validity of this assumption needs to be re-evaluated, given that
technological advances may provide alternatives to currently
scarce resources.

Lately, economists have been praising the economic growth that the
Philippines is sustaining (6.7%). They speculate that by 2050, the
Philippines will be one of the top 20 economies… or top 30?
However, that is heavily subjected to how future administrations
will run the country. We have seen the Philippines enjoying a well-
off economy before Marcos completely trashed it. Any future
president can easily trash the economic progress that the
Philippines now enjoys.

While natural resources, such as oil, remain highly relevant to a

state’s situation in the global environment, a number of other
“capacities” are also significant to consider a number of facets
of state power, including social issues and health, domestic
politics, economics, the environment, science and human potential,
military and security issues, and international diplomacy.
So I can therefore conclude that our future… which we don’t know
for sure. We can speculate but it is ambivalent. Many things could
occur, they could occur together and so, it could either be a
miracle future or a devastating future.