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Abstract
Common definition of program effectiveness is essential for good stewardship of federal dollars.
This research attempted to aid the organization in creating a foundation from which a shared
indicator of the construct of decisions and actions that contributed to program effectiveness. The
those surveyed responded. Six questions were posed to participants. A four-option scale was
used to begin understanding the construct. Reliability assessment returned a negative Cronbach’s
alpha (-0.397). This indicated that a negative value was returned in the covariance of the scoring
scale. The results of the instrument validity and reliability treatment concluded that one survey
item contributed significantly to negative alpha. Further development of the instrument was
indicated.
Table of Contents
Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 2
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 5
Needs Analysis................................................................................................................................ 5
Psychological Construct............................................................................................................ 5
Purpose...................................................................................................................................... 6
Population ................................................................................................................................. 7
Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 21
Summary ................................................................................................................................. 23
Introduction
organizations must determine and defend program effectiveness in order to advocate for funding.
As a result, efforts to determine program effectiveness have grown over the past decade. Some
federal agencies have seen their organizations mature and learn, while others have struggled with
this issue. In support of one government agency’s efforts to determine the effectiveness of
assigned programs, a detailed analysis must be performed. This effort requires the creation of a
effectiveness.
Needs Analysis
and effectiveness (Franceschini & Turina, 2013). To fulfill a commitment to help the
organization assess and the effectiveness of assigned programs, the organization endeavored to
create a reliable, valid and accurate assessment of program decisions and outcomes (Asan &
Ayhan, 2013). Given the lack of a standard definition of program effectiveness within the
organization, a survey instrument was developed as a method by which program managers could
build and share an organization definition of program effectiveness. Lacking this definition could
Psychological Construct
An initial assessment was conducted via telephone and personal interviews to determine
sample of current program managers in the organization was conducted in late 2015. Of the 15
people contacted, it was determined that a common definition of program effectiveness did not
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 6
exist. The underlying assumptions of effective programs served as a filter through which the
desired outcomes. Funds are allocated as part of the yearly planning, programming and
budgeting process. Programs are rarely funded to 100% of the actual requirement; program
managers must balance the lowest level of acceptable risk while still executing the most effective
programs possible. The series of decisions that accomplish an optimal reduced risk/optimal
effectiveness balance create a dynamic construct that is not clearly understood by the
organization. Experiences are typically shared as lessons learned between program managers.
Although this approach has supported organization success thus far, it does not support a
Purpose
Programs assigned to the organization are a collection of people, facilities and equipment
needed to perform given missions. The time and resources it can take to produce, distribute,
collect and analyze an instrument must be justifiable. Currently, the organization has four
program managers that oversee a variety of programs totaling over $4 billion in federal funds.
given travel budget constraints yet increased the scope of data collection beyond the
organization.
Driving factors of the survey began with a varied and nebulous perception of program
Thus, the organization’s leader and his leadership team had a need for a successful research
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 7
effort. Lastly, there was no existing indicator for the construct. An instrument had to be created
to meet this requirement. Past programmatic management behaviors might be indicated by those
factors discovered and developed because of survey data. Program management behaviors could
be categorized as contributing factors, detracting factors (Houger, 2015), or external factors (e.g.,
political, economic, etc.) having the most significant impact on effective use of resources.
Population
The target population for this instrument included program managers and program
element liaisons. The target population was approximately 25 individuals within the organization
and 150 people spanning the enterprise of a 175-person population. The demographics for this
population were primarily male, over age 50, having served at least 17 years as commissioned
officers. All members of the population had at least a post-secondary education, with most
having advanced degrees and senior-level military professional developmental education. The
demographics are important as they describe the culture within which the survey instrument was
developed, deployed, collected and analyzed. In addition, the demographics represent potential
bias that could have been introduced. By identifying the bias, skewed results could be addressed
Sampling Frame
As the population was relatively small, a survey of the population was considered ideal,
practical and convenient. A higher-than-normal response rate was also anticipated due to
population size, the opportunity to contact participants personally and the ability to follow up
with participants after the instrument was distributed (Fowler, 2014). An advantage for selecting
a 100% sample size was that the effects of error (e) were theoretically reduced. Challenges to
this sampling approach included a risk that Reservists tend to be in a higher age and rank bracket
than their active duty counterparts (Preiss, 2013), resulting in skewed or biased data collected.
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 8
Sampling Procedure
In order to obtain results reliable at the α=.05, with a margin of error set at 5%, a sample
of approximately 121 individuals would need to be sampled (Warner, 2013). Increasing the
margin of error to 10% would require a sample of 63 individuals. In order to understand the
construct, it was determined that the largest sample size possible could provide the most
Sampling electronically proved the most effective at reaching the target population.
According to McPeake, Bateson and O'Neill (2013), response rates for electronic surveys tended
to be slightly lower than response rates of surveys delivered via postal mail are. The authors
identified concerns that the population being surveyed might not have reliable access to the
concern of confidentiality of data collected via electronic methods. These concerns were
mitigated via personal contact and a culture excepting of electronic surveys. Organization
members have participated in electronic surveys for more than a decade. Areas for concern in
this context included Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) and Privacy Act (1974) issues, labor
relation issues, legal and security reviews and Internal Review Board (IRB) evaluation from an
accredited organization.
These risks were also mitigated by adhering to the guidance in organization operating
instructions, DoDI 1100.13 - Surveys of DoD Personnel (U.S. Department of Defense, 2015) and
Office of Personnel (OPM) employee survey guidance (2016). In addition, standards outlined by
the American Psychological Association (APA) in the Ethical Principles of Psychologists and
Within the organization, ethical standards are generally based on legal and mission
maintained by the APA (2010) carried significant weight on the use of this survey and
participant protections. To maintain protection of participants, response data was not stored in an
open environment. Data could not be accessible by other than the survey research personnel.
Once validated, the defining factors of effectiveness would be used to evaluate program
managers and resource allocation proposals. Bias could have been introduced due to differing
attitudes towards program effectiveness (Walsh, et al., 2012). An ethical concern was that
individuals in the target population were not been made aware of the reasons for defining
program effectiveness. Data collected was not intended to serve as the sole source for personnel
decisions. The intent was that program managers with the most effective programs would be
effectiveness.
indicators and actual program results (Gajda & Jewiss, 2004). Gajda and Jewiss (2004) indicated
that in order to evaluate program performance, survey questions needed to indicate qualities of a
given program’s outcome, the activities needed to accomplish the outcome and any indicators of
progress towards a given program’s intended purpose. The survey developed served as an initial
review of the existence of expected program outcomes, activities, performance indicators and
A survey instrument must be scoped such that it captures the intended information
relative to the context of its use (Asan & Ayhan, 2013). This translated into a survey being able
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 10
to act as an indicator of program outcomes in terms of quantity and quality. The questions
needed to provide indicators applicable to any program managed by the organization. However,
as the definition in this construct was not established, determining program effectiveness was not
supportable. Thus, this survey instrument focused on the decision-making process and associated
indicators of program effectiveness. This survey consisted of six items that were aimed at
suggested that survey questions be clear, concise and direct statements of the constructs being
Grajda and Jewiss (2004) suggested that in order to determine program effectiveness,
questions must be asked to establish baseline program expectations and performance. The
authors suggested that by understanding the desired outcomes of a given program, its goals and
expected accomplishments over time and program performance could be evaluated. Process
indicators could also be created in order to determine how one might arrive at the expected
accomplishments and the associated activities be defined in order create discrete observations of
program performance. Lastly, they suggested that a known indicator exist for the progress
towards desired program outcomes. Thus, each concepts proposed by Grajda and Jewiss (2004)
An even number of options was offered as the Likert-type scale. This removed a ‘no-
opinion’ option and forced respondents to report agreement or disagreement with each statement
(Fowler, 2014). Final survey conversion and construction are provided in Appendix A: Program
Gajda and Jewiss (2004) proposed that in some cases, the components of what is
considered critical to program evaluation might already exist in an organization. In the case of
the organization’s programs, evidence supporting defined mission objectives of each program
existed. As each program is unique, a common, enterprise-wide descriptor cannot exist. Instead,
each program manager is expected to allocate program resources with expected mission
performance percentages, levels of individual and equipment readiness and other factors driven
tested the degree to which each program manager understood the components of effectiveness
relative to his or her programs. Organization program managers are expected to communicate
with other like organizations maintaining like programs. Cross-functional coordination creates a
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 12
community of understanding that could be used to build definitions of program performance and
effectiveness.
Future research could build on the existence of factors determined critical to effective
program performance. Supporting documentation for each statement should have been readily
available if the statements were affirmed by participants. An advantage of the proposed questions
was that question phrases were positive assertions that each program manager should have been
able to support. Program resource accountability is maintained through the yearly planning and
programming cycle (i.e., fiscal year to fiscal year). Organization processes also require each
program manager to defend program changes to his or her peers before submitting through the
corporate structure.
A disadvantage of asking questions in this format was that if the respondent did not
understand the question, or did not know the answer to a particular question, he or she was
forced to provide a false response (Bilodeau, 2006; Fowler, 2014). This practice could have led
to skewed survey results, increasing the rate of error and decreasing the reliability and validity of
In any survey instrument, the possibility exists that questions or terms used will not be
understood by the respondent. Interpretation bias can increase the probability of erroneous data
reported (Gobo & Mauceri, 2014). One strategy used to minimize ambiguity with the distribution
and collection of a forced-choice survey instrument was to provide clear directions at the
beginning of the survey (Fowler, 2014). Gobo and Mauceri (2014) also suggested using words
that have common cultural meanings. This required that definitions be provided as part of the
phrasing and meaning. In addition, the length of the survey did not lend itself to biased, patterned
responses (Morren, Gelissen, & Vermunt, 2012). The six-item survey length helped minimize
Field Testing
Validity is considered evidence that an instrument has a purpose: the accuracy of the
survey instrument (Sullivan, 2011). Serving the designed purpose is based on a relationship
between the how well the answers provided by a participant measure the intended focal
characteristic that would be considered unobservable by other methods (Kaplan & Saccuzzo,
2012; Leedy & Ormrod, 2013). Construct validity was determined as the most appropriate
Five test group members provided initial feedback. Overall response was positive. Test
group members reported that the survey length was appreciated and appropriate. Responses to
questions were favorable. Questions were considered understandable by test group members.
Personal interviews conducted with the test group indicated a relatively common understanding
Construct validity provides the researcher with a measure of how well a series of
questions in an instrument measure the construct of interest not otherwise observable (Leedy &
Ormrod, 2013). As the construct under review was the decision making process relative to
program effectiveness, the opinions, beliefs, motivation and other behaviors displayed by
construct required interviews conducted with participants in the test group. Interviews consisted
of survey item review and clarifying statements as requested by participants. In this case, since
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 14
the construct of interest was not directly observable, the evidence supporting the level of validity
was based on what was assumed reported as fact by survey participants (Leedy & Ormrod,
2013). Construct validity appeared relatively high based on statements made by test group
members and their personal experiences when reallocating resources between programs.
The method by which instrument validity is determined is limited to the domain for
which the survey was designed. This limits the instruments recommended application generally
to the domain of intended use. Therefore, the validation approach should be supported by
evidence. Even so, validity remains an estimated indicator of a given construct (Sullivan, 2011;
Warner, 2013). During the validation process, a determination must be made as to those survey
items to retain and those to exclude based on item performance (Forrest, Eatough, & Shevlin,
2005). In this field test, items that failed to measure the construct adequately would have been
discarded. However, test group participants felt that the questions reflected their personal
Analyzing Reliability
Cronbach’s alpha (α) represented the degree to which survey items and score scale behave
consistently (i.e., reliably) (Warner, 2013) with regard to the measurement of a given construct.
A four-point Likert-type (ordinal) scale was used to determine the degree to which program
managers had specific elements of program oversight in place. Thus, the presence of these
The instrument consisted of six questions (items) based on the components of program
effectiveness (e.g., defining expected outcomes, activities, performance indicators and actual
program results (Gajda & Jewiss, 2004)). 175 surveys were distributed with 28.6% total
responses (50 participants) returned within the time limit specified in the instructions. All
participants responded to all six items. Responses were coded into an IBM Statistical Package
for the Social Sciences (SPSS) (IBM, 2016) dataset for storage and testing. Respondent personal
identifying information was omitted from electronic communication methods. Coded responses
Survey analysis was completed using the reliability function resident in IBM SPSS (IBM,
2016). Accepted reliability testing statistics (i.e., summary analysis, Cronbach’s alpha (α)
statistics and item-level statistics) are provided in Tables 1 through 7 as produced by reliability
analysis. The data represented by the item variables is ordinal data and consideration should be
Table 1 provides a summary of the number of surveys (i.e., cases) returned for inclusion
in this research effort. In this round of survey distribution and collection, no items or responses
Table 1
Case Processing Summary
N %
Cases Valid 50 100.0
a
Excluded 0 0
Total 50 100.0
a. Listwise deletion based on all variables in the procedure.
Table 1
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 16
Cronbach’s Alpha
A primary concern with regard to this survey was the negative value of α. Given the
number (N) of questions in the survey was six and there were four response options, the formula
implied that the larger the number of survey items and the greater the number of scoring
possibilities, the more likely the instrument would produce a greater level of α (Nichols, 1999).
A review of raw data did not reveal a coding error. However, Dunn, Baguley and Brunsden
(2014) proposed that α was more a representation of the variability between the score scale and
the construct being measured. Moreover, an underestimation in error (Tiffina & Rolling, 2012)
due to the low number of items and very low variability in score responses could produce -α.
Mathematically, -α is possible if the sum of individual item variances is greater than the variance
of the scale (Kaplan & Saccuzzo, 2012). Another cause could be that the items in the survey did
not accurately measure the intended construct. Understanding of the construct is in development;
another instrument measuring the same construct in the same environment did not exist.
Table 2
Reliability Statistics
Cronbach's Alpha a Cronbach's Alpha Based on Standardized Items a N of Items
-.397 -.480 6
a. Negative value due to a negative average covariance among items.
Table 2
Tables 3 through 7 represent the performance of survey items and the survey scale itself.
Assuming a normal distribution, items within the survey performed relatively consistently. Mean
scores of 50 responses displayed in Table 3 ranged from 2.5 to 3.06. Standard deviations of
scores ranged from 0.24 to 0.646. Here, reliability can be inferred by a parametric approach
Table 3
Item Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
Each program I manage has defined desired outcomes. 2.70 .505 50
Each program I manage has associated goals. 3.06 .240 50
All of my program goals are time-bound. 2.70 .580 50
I have action plans developed to help each program meet
2.50 .614 50
desired outcomes.
Each action plan contains discrete activities that will enable my
2.84 .468 50
programs to reach desired outcomes.
I have indicators established for each program to monitor
2.54 .646 50
progress towards desired outcomes.
Table 3
correlations. The correlation between questions 1 and 3 was significantly high (.801). Of the
remaining item correlations, item 4 represented the most significant negative correlation. The
relative weight of this correlation is indicated in Table 6 as having the largest positive impact on
Cronbach’s α if deleted. This suggested that the survey item performed outside expectations
(Norman, 2010). A strategy to address the performance of the instrument would be to increase
the number of items addressing the same subscale within the construct.
Table 4
Inter-Item Correlation Matrix
Questions Question 1 Question 2 Question 3 Question 4 Question 5 Question 6
Question 1 -
Question 2 -.185 -
Question 3 .801 -.161 -
Question 4 -.559 .069 -.544 -
Question 5 -.207 .087 -.180 -.142 -
Question 6 .382 -.082 .496 -.180 -.451 -
Table 4
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 18
Table 5 indicates summary statistics for the survey items used in the instrument. Item means
Table 5
Summary Item Statistics
Maximum/
Mean Minimum Maximum Range Minimum Variance N
Item Means 2.723 2.500 3.060 .560 1.224 .042 6
Inter-Item Correlations -.057 -.559 .801 1.360 -1.433 .138 6
Table 5
Table 6 provides scenarios for consideration of elimination of survey items. Those items with the
highest negative corrected item-total correlations accounted for the negative value of α. As
understanding the construct is being developed, removing an item from the survey at this stage of
research was not considered, however Umbach (2005) and Yan, Kreuter and Tourangeau (2012)
suggested rewording the poorly performing item and readdressing the pretest stage of survey
development.
Table 6
Item-Total Statistics
Scale Mean Scale Corrected Squared
if Item Variance if Item-Total Multiple Cronbach's Alpha if
Deleted Item Deleted Correlation Correlation Item Deleted
Question 1 13.56 .741 .394 .676 -.994a
Question 2 13.24 1.288 .097 .036 -.269a
Question 3 13.56 .578 .481 .719 -1.451a
Question 4 13.76 1.982 -.590 .413 .488
Question 5 13.42 1.677 -.460 .352 .231
Question 6 13.76 .676 .283 .528 -.984a
a. Negative due to negative average covariance among items. Reliability assumptions violated.
Table 6
Table 7 summarizes the mean and variance of the survey scale used. The presence of central
tendency was reinforced. This indicated an appropriate scale proposed for the development of
Table 7
Scale Statistics
Mean Variance Std. Deviation N of Items
16.34 1.249 1.118 6
Table 7
Ethical, legal and organizationally accepted methods of survey use are critical to the
(DoDI1100.13) (2015) prescribed expectations regarding surveys and DoD personnel. The
American Psychological Association (APA) provided the Ethical Principles of Psychologists and
Code of Conduct (2010) as a set of standards that include the ethical administration, collection,
development and use of survey instruments. Lastly, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM)
provided guidance regarding the use of surveys on civilians in federal service (2016). Therefore,
surveys used in the organization must comply with a number of protections of participants and
organization information. Several layers of protection and compliance greatly influence surveys
Guidance provided by the DoD (2015) was built on the same framework as guidance
provided by the APA. Protection of DoD survey participant personal and mission-sensitive
information inform survey review bodies resident within each of the military services. The Air
Force created the Air Force Survey Office to act as the responsible body for review, distribution,
data gathering and interpretation of organizational surveys. The OPM also has an interest in the
use of surveys and tests on the civilian workforce, regardless of grade or labor organization
affiliation (2016). OPM guidance supported similar ethical and protective issues as those issued
by the DoD and Air Force. In addition to guidance, OPM developed and reviews surveys for use
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 20
by all federal organizations. This multifaceted survey construct could help support the
AFRC headquarters. Successful I/O practices would include submitting all proposed surveys
through the Air Force Survey Office for review and approval prior to administration.
APA Guidance
Based on the Belmont Report (The National Commission for the Protection of Human
Subjects, 1979) and other reports regarding how prisoners of war, under-education members of a
given population, those not capable of defending themselves, etc., the APA recognized the need
for standards of ethical treatment of human subjects (2010). Several sections in the APA’s
Ethical Principles of Psychologists and Code of Conduct were dedicated to qualifications and
Standard 2.0 suggested that practitioners be competent in the area in which they practice.
This includes maintaining the competence and capability to administer instruments used for
psychological evaluation and research. Standard 4.0 described expectations regarding the privacy
and confidentiality of human subjects. Standard 7.0 addressed the education and training
component of the ethical practice of psychology. The APA suggested that those using a given
instrument should be trained in the administration and interpretation of the instrument by the
issuing body. Standard 8.0 provided the ethical conduct of research and information published
because of survey administration must ensure beneficence and non-malfeasance to the greatest
degree possible. Section 9.0 addressed assessments directly: the resulting impact could
substantively change the quality of an individual’s life. APA expectations were clear with respect
to the use of survey data, the need for informed consent of participants, transparency in scoring
and interpretation of instrument results, and the security and maintenance of survey instrument
data (2010).
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 21
Individual personal and physical data protection must be considered a part of ethical
survey research. Since the program effectiveness survey was conducted in a secure environment,
physical protections of participants and survey data were accounted for. Future continued
validation of similar efforts would not require the personal identification of participants.
Therefore, there was no reason to link participant information to survey responses. Recognition
(Fowler, 2014). Documentation of protective efforts was maintained in order to support the
ethical and scientific character of the research effort (Trochim, 2006) and to provide evidence of
appropriate survey development and administration to the Air Force Survey Office. Digital
security controls confirmed that data was only accessible by those in the research function.
Physical security of survey data consisted of a pass card-enabled secure work area, locked
drawers and password protected database access (Hall, Howerton, & Bolin, 2005).
Conclusions
The process of designing, validating and refining the survey instrument contributed to the
determined their assigned program risks and resources has been clarified. Clarity has not yet
been reached to support making comparative determinations within and between programs
themselves. However, the point at which the understanding the construct contributed to creating
It is clear that a need persists for the continued understanding of the construct. The
construct, but might not have represented the full spectrum of construct variables. Factors
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 22
beyond the control of the program manager can significantly affect the outcome of programmatic
choices and the redistribution of resources. For example, changes in legislation can alter the
course of a program with very little notice and at times contrary to organization desires. This can
result in having to rebalance program dollars outside of the systematic approach accepted by the
organization for future fiscal years. Second- and third-order effects emerge, as short-notice
changes require increasing risk in programs considered highly effective. The development of a
program effectiveness approach could support the organization’s ability to react to external
influences while minimizing risks to current programs. Enterprise program (and organization)
Survey Approach
The sample process was relatively successful. As the small population allowed for greater
access to survey participants, the convenience sample used provided adequate data for construct
analysis. The scope of the survey instrument contributed to the effort of understanding the
construct. Survey items could have been expanded, and some items could have been reworded
prior to final distribution of the instrument. However, this was not evident until after the results
of reliability testing. Future efforts should consider changing the survey scale to allow for a
greater span of response options. Survey items will also be expanded based on the feedback
qualitative responses could also be captured to provide basis for case study options of the same
Survey questions were designed to gain understanding of the decision making process
with regard to program effectiveness. More items could be added that capture the process used
by the organization to prioritize yearly programming decisions made by the corporate structure.
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 23
construct could be gained by including any elements of standardized organization processes and
their relationship to the construct under investigation. These could then be compared to the
existing program manager subscale in search of any relationships between the corporate process
Reliability Conclusions
Reliability analysis revealed an issue with one of the survey items. According to the
analysis, had the item been deleted Cronbach’s alpha would have changed to a positive number
and could have reflected a significant level of alpha relative to new research in a construct
without previous comparative values. This was not feasible as the number of items was relatively
low (six survey items). However, should the number of items be expanded to measure the
construct, the option to eliminate poorly performing items might produce more reliable results.
Ethical Concerns
Ethical issues were minimized with regard to the use and interpretation of survey data.
Physical and electronic controls were used to protect participant responses and survey data
integrity. Continued validation and reliability information would also need to be provided in
support of the strength of the instrument. Adhering to APA (2010), OPM (2016) and DoD (2015)
guidance will ensure this research continues to contribute to understanding the decision-making
Summary
The instrument on its first field test did not perform as expected. The results of
Cronbach’s α being negative could indicate a failure to represent the construct being measured
or that more items should have been present to test the construct. Further development of the
instrument should address this issue. Continued development could yield a more reliable
PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS SURVEY 24
instrument by which the decision-making process influences AFRC program effectiveness. This
includes adding items to measure each component of the construct and expanding the instrument
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