Professional Documents
Culture Documents
normalidad y causalidad
Andrés
Gempeler
Medición
• Parte
de
los
procesos
centrales
en
la
construcción
del
conocimiento
cien9fico.
– La
precisión
ExacAtud
“Accuracy”
–
Validez
En
qué
grado
el
resultado
de
la
medición
refleja
el
valor
verdadero
de
una
variable
Mide
la
realidad?
Validez,
y
exacAtud,
usualmente
se
refieren
a
la
ausencia
de
sesgo
Precisión
“Precision”
–
Confiabilidad
o
Consistencia
Rango
de
variación
o
fluctuación
de
mediciones
de
una
misma
variable,
con
un
mismo
instrumento.
Mientras
menor
sea,
hay
mayor
precisión.
Validez,
y
exacAtud,
usualmente
se
refieren
a
la
ausencia
de
sesgo
El
resultado
de
la
medición
Será
veraz
o
correcto
A
la
variabilidad
“extraña”
que
no
es
inherente
al
verdadero
estado
de
la
variable
medida,
se
le
llama
Error
Desviación
sistemáAca
de
la
realidad
SESGO
Error
aleatorio
En
ausencia
de
sesgo,
aún
existe
la
posibilidad
de
error,
por
mala
suerte,
por
azar.
Error
aleatorio
Muestra
a9pica?
Azar
-‐
Variabilidad
Teoría
de
probabilidades
nos
permite
esAmar
el
posible
papel
del
azar
en
el
resultado
de
una
medición
específica.
• Producción
• Causa
necesaria
• Causas
suficiente
–
componente
• Causalidad
probabilísAca
Postulados
de
Koch
• The
microorganism
must
be
found
in
abundance
in
all
organisms
suffering
from
the
disease,
but
should
not
be
found
in
healthy
organisms.
• The
microorganism
must
be
isolated
from
a
diseased
organism
and
grown
in
pure
culture.
• The
cultured
microorganism
should
cause
disease
when
introduced
into
a
healthy
organism.
• The
microorganism
must
be
reisolated
from
the
inoculated,
diseased
experimental
host
and
idenAfied
as
being
idenAcal
to
the
original
specific
causaAve
agent.
Criterios
de
Bradford
Hill
Medición
de
variables
Análisis
à
Asociación
¡Asociación
no
es
lo
mismo
que
causalidad!
Otra
vez…
¡Asociación
no
es
lo
mismo
que
causalidad!
¡Asociación
no
es
lo
mismo
que
causalidad!
Normalidad
/
Anormalidad
Normalidad
estadísAca
(or “Gaussian,” after the mathemati- curve is shown in Figure 3.7. The curve is symmetr
t described it). The normal distribution,
Normalidad
estadísAca
cal and bell shaped. It has the mathematical proper
tistical theory, describes the frequency that about two-thirds of the observations fall with
Frequency
Standard deviations –3 –2 –1 0 +1 +2 +3
Percent of 68.26
area under
the curve 95.44
99.72
Mortality
4 21% to 38%
between no
2 on the health
0
115 120 140 160 180 Abnormal
Usual systolic blood pressure (mm Hg) Condition
Figure 3.9 ■ Ischemic heart disease mortality for peo- Clinical Ou
ple ages 40 to 49 years is related to systolic blood pres-
sure throughout the range of values occurring in most
It makes intuiti
people. There is no threshold between normal and abnormal. or finding as “a
“Mortality” is presented as a multiple of the baseline rate. (Data a better outcom
from Prospective Studies Collaboration. Age-specific relevance good sense for
of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of dition is causin
individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies. no difference, w
Lancet 2002;360:1903–1913.) symptomatic p
A 20,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
<18.5 18.5–21.9 22.0–24.9 25.0–27.4 27.5–29.9 30.0–34.9 ≥35.0
2
Body mass index (kg/m )
B 40
Men with functional decline (%)
30
20
10
0
<18.5 18.5–21.9 22.0–24.9 25.0–27.4 27.5–29.9 30.0–34.9 ≥35.0
2
Body mass index (kg/m )
Figure 3.10 ■ Abnormal as associated with disease and other patient outcomes. The re-
lationship between body mass index and (A) total mortality and (B) functional decline in men age
65 and older on Medicare. Body mass index is weight in kilograms divided by height in meters
cance of a All observations are subject to variation because of
the performance of the instruments and observers
ough expe-
te patients’ Fuentes
de
variación
involved in making the measurements. The conditions
gainst such
estionnaires Table 3.3
nicians and Sources of Variation
y. To over-
e, research- Source of
r states. To Variation Definition
he numbers Measurement Variation
day perfor-
Instrument The means of making the measurement
fsky Perfor-
nal capacity Observer The person making the measurement
ents receiv- Biologic Variation
rmal) to 0 Within Changes in a person at different times and
e of 60? At individuals situations
sional assis-
Between Biologic differences from person to person
eir personal
individuals
ased result (lack of 100
ack of reliability). It
variation by making
d by following stan- 80
40
60 70 80 90 100 110
Diastolic blood pressure (mm Hg)
30
20
Serum Alkaline
potassium 20 phosphatase
10
10
mEq/L Units
30 40
Plasma 30
20 glucose Hemoglobin
20
10
10
mg/100 mL g/100 mL
Figure 3.6 ■ Actual clinical distributions. (Data from Martin HF, Gudzinowicz BJ,
Fanger H. Normal Values in Clinical Chemistry. New York: Marcel Dekker; 1975.)