alfa 0.

213920119
Holt- Metodo forecast
Periodo Demanda Suavizacion Error Level
1 18 18 0 30.654
2 30 18 12 32.6865852
3 50 32.5670414 17.43295858 38.5627619
4 60 53.7292606 6.270739435 45.3211074
5 32 61.3414373 29.34143732 44.6439435
6 50 25.7232763 24.27672375 47.9622007
7 70 55.1932796 14.80672038 54.8490183
8 45 73.1674554 28.16745538 54.9146041
9 40 38.9744146 1.025585392 53.8965592
10 60 40.2193933 19.78060665 57.374697
11 80 64.2314697 15.76853028 64.3871934
12 60 83.3732059 23.37320587 65.6211735
13 55 55.000001 1.031335E-06 65.5215797
MAD 14.78799724

Periodo Prediccion
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Grafico
90

80

70
f(x) = 2.7637362637x + 30.6538461538
60
90

80

70
f(x) = 2.7637362637x + 30.6538461538
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
 Beta 0
Holt- Metodo forecast para series con tendencia
Trend Holt Error
2.7637 No hay forecast
2.7637 33.4177 3.4177
2.7637 35.4502852 14.5497148
2.7637 41.3264619 18.6735381
2.7637 48.0848074 16.0848074
2.7637 47.4076435 2.5923565
2.7637 50.7259007 19.2740993
2.7637 57.6127183 12.6127183
2.7637 57.6783041 17.6783041
2.7637 56.6602592 3.3397408
2.7637 60.138397 19.861603
2.7637 67.1508934 7.15089343
2.7637 68.3848735 13.3848735 y = 2,7637x + 63,8184
MAD 12.3850291 Pronostico 14 68.2852797427

68.2852797
71.0489797
73.8126797
76.5763797
79.3400797
82.1037797
84.8674797
87.6311797
90.3948797
93.1585797
95.9222797
98.6859797
101.44968
104.21338
106.97708 Se sustituye x como tantos periodos
delante de su ecuacion, 1, 2, 3 o mas
109.74078 periodos
112.50448

x = (Periodo a pronosticar - Periodo ultimo de la ec de la recta)

Datos Ori gi na l es
Li near (Datos Ori gi nal es )
 Datos Ori gi na l es
Li near (Datos Ori gi nal es )
Datos Suavi za dos
Datos Hol t
Datos Wi nter

12 14
 Winter
Factor Estacional ST
0.69 0.5871990605
0.97 0.9178077124
1.33 1.2965876277
1.07 1.3238864503
0.69 0.7167825576
0.97 1.0424876103
1.33 1.2762306812
1.07 0.8194541457
0.69 0.742162405
0.97 1.0457571576
1.33 1.2424831048
1.07 0.9143390287
0.69 0.8394181004

Periodo Prediccion
14 1.0457571576
15 1.2424831048
16 0.9143390287
17 0.8394181004
18 1.0457571576
19 1.2424831048
20 0.9143390287
21 0.8394181004
22 1.0457571576
23 1.2424831048
24 0.9143390287
25 0.8394181004
26 1.0457571576
27 1.2424831048
28 0.9143390287
29 0.8394181004
30 1.0457571576

odo ultimo de la ec de la recta)

Prediccion
Holt vs Winter
140

120

100
Wi nter
80 Hol t

60

40
140

120

100
Wi nter
80 Hol t

60

40

20

0
12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
Winter Gamma 1
Winters Error

30.6710228 0.67102279
45.9644012 4.0355988
54.711543 5.28845702
34.4663512 2.46635123
49.421881 0.57811902
64.7379508 5.26204919
47.2109809 2.21098086
42.8066689 2.8066689
59.2528716 0.74712839
74.7209422 5.27905784
61.3986827 1.39868267
57.4035006 2.40350057
MAD 2.76230144

71.40982
88.2771569
67.4898139
64.2795992
82.9704563
102.012559
77.597649
73.5591984
94.5310925
115.747961
87.7054841
82.8387976
106.091729
129.483364
97.8133192
92.1183969
117.652365