Compound Events, Probabilities of Mutually Exclusive,

Probabilities of Independent Event, Conditional Probabilities

PLAN OF LEARNING IMPLEMENTATION

TO FULFILL THE SUBJECT ASSIGNMENT
Teaching Senior Mathematics in English
Who is choached by Mrs. Latifah Mustofa

By :
Dita Arianti (150311600204)
Dwi Rosi Nurani (150311600489)
Dwi Ujianti (150311603143)

STATE UNIVERSITY OF MALANG

FAKULTY OF MATHEMATICS AND NATURAL SCIENCE

DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS

FEBRUARY 2019
 PLAN OF LEARNING IMPLEMENTATION

Subject : Mathematics

Subject Matter : The Probabilities of Compound Event

Grade/Semester : XII/II

Time Allocation : 2 × 45 minutes (1 meeting)

A. Competency Standards:

Basic Competencies Indicator

3.4 Describe and
determine probabilities of
compound events
(probabilities of mutually
exclusive, probabilities of
independent event,
conditional probabilities)
from a randomized
experiment
3.4.1 Describe the probabilities of compound event
3.4.2 Determine the probabilities of compound event
3.4.3 Describe the probabilities of mutually exclusive
3.4.4 Determine the probabilities of mutually exclusive
3.4.5 Describe the probabilities of independent event
3.4.6 Determine the probabilities of independent event
3.4.7 Describe the conditional probabilities
3.4.8 Determine the conditional probabilities

4.4 Solve the problem related
to probabilities of
compound event
(probabilities of mutually
exclusive, probabilities of
independent event,
conditional probabilities)
4.4.1 Solve the contextual problem related to mutually
exclusive
4.4.2 Solve the contextual problem related to
independent event
4.4.3 Solve the contextual problem related to conditional
probabilities

B. Learning Objectives :

3.4.1 Student can describe the probabilities of compound event

3.4.2 Student can determine the probabilities of compound event
3.4.3 Student can describe the probabilities of mutually exclusive
3.4.4 Student can determine the probabilities of mutually exclusive
3.4.5 Student can describe the probabilities of independent event
 3.4.6 Student can determine the probabilities of independent event
3.4.7 Student can describe the conditional probabilities
3.4.8 Student can determine the conditional probabilities
4.4.1 Student can solve the contextual problem related to mutually exclusive
4.4.2 Student can solve the contextual problem related to independent event
4.4.3 Student can solve the contextual problem related to conditional probabilities

C. Learning Materials
PROBABILITIES OF COMPOUND EVENT

1. Compound Event
compound events are when two or more things are happening at once. We usually want
to know the probability of all those things actually occurring, not each one of them at a
time. For example, what is the probability that you forgot to do your homework and
there will be a pop quiz in class? The compound event involves combining two or more
events together that used an operation. Its operation is : Union (∪) and Intersection (∩)

Example:
a. The event took an ace and a king's card
b. The event takes an ace or a king's card
c. The event takes an ace or a diamond card
d. Take two red balls and one white ball on three balls in a box filled with six red balls
and four white balls.

We'll go over three different ways to compute these probabilities (organized lists, tree
diagrams, and tabel) and show you examples using each method.
Measuring Compound Events Using Organized Lists
Using the organized list method, you would list all the different possible outcomes that
could occur. This can be difficult because there's a high probability that we will forget
one or two options.
For example, if you flip a coin and roll a dice, what is the probability of getting tails and
an even number?
First, we need to start by listing all the possible outcomes we could get. (H1 means
flipping heads and rolling a 1.)
There are twelve possible outcomes, and three of these outcomes give a desired
outcome (tails plus an even number). These are T2, T4, and T6. So the probability is:

Measuring Compound Events Using Tree Diagrams

Tree diagrams will give you the same answer as lists
Let's look at the coin and dice example again: if you flip a coin and roll a dice, what is
the probability of getting tails and an even number?
We can chart all the possible outcomes by making a tree. The first set of "branches" will
be all the possible outcomes of the first event. (It doesn't matter which event we put
first, the total outcomes will be the same.) From each of those outcomes, draw branches
for all the possibilities of the second event.
It could look like this:

By counting the smallest branches, we see that there are 12 possibilities. So the
probability of flipping a tail and rolling an even number is:
 Measuring Compound Events Using Tabel
Example: if you flip a coin and roll a dice, what is the probability of getting tails and an
even number?
Start by making a table with the outcomes of one event listed on the top and the
outcomes of the second event listed on the side. Fill in the cells of the table with the
corresponding outcomes for each event. We can shade the cells that fit our probability.

2. Probabilities of Mutually Exclusive

When two events (call them A dan B) are Mutually Exclusive it is impossible for them
to happen together:
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟎
"The probability of A and B together equals 0 (impossible)"
Example: King AND Queen
A card cannot be a King AND a Queen at the same time!
 The probability of a King and a Queen is 0 (Impossible)

But the probability of A or B is the sum of the individual probabilities:

𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩)
"The probability of A or B equals the probability of A plus the probability of B"
Example: King OR Queen
In a Deck of 52 Cards:
𝟏 𝟏
 the probability of a King is 𝟏𝟑, so P(King) = 𝟏𝟑
𝟏 𝟏
 the probability of a Queen is also𝟏𝟑, so P(Queen) = 𝟏𝟑

When we combine those two Events:

𝟏 𝟏 𝟐
 P(King ∪ Queen) = (𝟏𝟑) + (𝟏𝟑) = 𝟏𝟑

So, we have:
  P(King ∩ Queen) = 0
𝟏 𝟏 𝟐
 P(King ∪ Queen) = (𝟏𝟑) + (𝟏𝟑) = 𝟏𝟑

Not Mutually Exclusive

Now let's see what happens when events are not Mutually Exclusive.
Example: Hearts and Kings

Hearts and Kings together is only the King of Hearts:

But Hearts or Kings is:
 all the Hearts (13 of them)
 all the Kings (4 of them)
But that counts the King of Hearts twice!
So we correct our answer, by subtracting the extra "and" part:

16 Cards = 13 Hearts + 4 Kings − the 1 extra King of Hearts

 Count them to make sure this works!
As a formula this is:
𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
"The probability of A or B equals the probability of A plus the probability of B
minus the probability of A and B"

3. Probabilities of Independent Event

Two events A and B are said to be independent if the outcome of event A doesn’t affect
the outcome of event B and vice versa. For example, suppose that based on the coin-
flipping experiment, event A is defined as the event that the first flip is a head, and
event B is defined as the event that the second flip is a head. In other words:
𝐴 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇}
𝐵 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻}
Because the outcome of the first flip has no influence over the outcome of the second
flip, events A and B are independent events.
Some other examples of independent events are :
- A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided dice is rolled. Find the probability of landing
on the head side of the coin and rolling a 3 on the dice.
- A card is chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards. It is then replaced and a
second card is chosen. What is the probability of choosing a jack and then an eight?
To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the
probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities. This
multiplication rule is defined symbolically below. Note that multiplication is
represented by AND.
Multiplication Rule 1 : When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of
both occurring is:
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐵) 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

4. Conditional Probabilities
Two events are dependent if the outcome or occurrence of the first affects the outcome
or occurrence of the second so that the probability is changed. This Probabilities called
is conditional probability. Conditional Probability of an event B in relationship to an
event A is the probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred.
The notation for conditional probability is P(B|A) [pronounced as The probability of
event B given A].
Multiplication Rule 2: When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of
both occurring is:

𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) · 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)

So the next event depends on what happened in the previous event, and is
called dependent.

Replacement

Note: if we replace the marbles in the bag each time, then the chances do not change
and the events are independent :

 With Replacement: the events are Independent (the chances don't change)
 Without Replacement: the events are Dependent (the chances change)
 D. Learning Methods :

Approach : Problem Based Learning

Methode : Discussion, Presentation

E. Tools and Learning Resources :

Sources : -User package, namely the book is

Susiswo. 2017. Pengantar Statistika Matematis. Malang: Universitas Negeri
Malang.
-Another reference book.
Tools :

- Worksheet (LKS)
- Laptop
- LCD
- Boardmarker and whiteboard
E. Learning Procedure :

The first meeting

Learning Time Model

Activity Description
Activity Allocation
Introduction 1. Teacher greets the students. 10 minutes
2. Teacher ask t students to lead the pray
3. Teacher check the precence of the students Orient
4. Teacher gives motivational videos to students students to
5. Teacher explains the purpose of learning about problems
compound event and probabilities of mutually
exclusive
6. Teacher gives apperception about the material
probabilities.
 A set of cards will be taken from a set of bridge
cards, determine the probabilities of taking an
Ace!
Main 1. Teacher explains about compound events and 65 menit
probabilities of mutually exclusive
2. The teacher make 4 groups (4 members @group). Organizing
Two groups discussed about compound events, and students to
two groups discussed about probabilities of learn
mutually exclusive. in one group there are two
members as guests, and two members as hosts.
3. The teacher gives two kind of worksheets, that
contains material about probabilities of compound
event and probabilities of mutually exclusive
4. Students do the worksheets. Students asked to Guiding
analyze and understand the problems given so as to group
find the concept of compound events and investigations
probabilities of mutually exclusive
5. Students are given the chance to ask questions
about things that have not been understood.
6. The teacher gives an explanation if there are
difficulties in completing the worksheets.
7. After students finished the worksheet, two
members as guest go to the other group for get an
information about their material. And two
members as host explain the result from their
disscusion to them
8. Two members as guest go back to their group and
explain the information from the host
9. One of the group that do the worksheet about Develop and
compound event and mutually exclusif present the present the
results of their discussion. results of the
10. Students are given the chance to express their discussion
opinions if there are different opinions.
11. The teacher gives feedback in the form of
additions and justifications if there is a wrong
concept.
Closing 1. The teacher gives a quiz related to the material of 15 minutes Analyze and
compound events, probabilities of mutually evaluate the
exclusive problem
2. Teacher with students make the conclusion solving
3. Teacher gives a homework and remembering to process
prepare their self for the future m
4. aterial.

The Second Meeting

Learning Time Model

Activity Description
Activity Allocation
Introduction 1. Greets the student 10 minutes
2. Tells learning objective today is about
3. Gives motivation about the usefulness of studying Orient
material probabilities students to
4. Explain the purpose of learning about probabilities problems
of independent event and conditional probabilities
5. Gives apperception about the material
probabilities.
 A set of cards will be taken from a set of
bridge cards, determine the chances of
taking an Ace!
Main 1. Explain about probabilities of independent event 65 minutes
and conditional probabilities
2. The teacher make 8 groups (3 members @group) Organizing
3. The teacher gives worksheets to each group, that students to
contains material about probabilities of learn
independent event and conditional probabilities
4. Students do the worksheets. Students asked to
analyze and understand the problems given so as to
find the concept of probabilities of independent Guiding
event and conditional probabilities group
 5. Students are given the chance to ask questions investigations
about things that have not been understood.
6. The teacher gives an explanation if there are
difficulties in completing the worksheets.
7. After students finished the worksheet, one of the
group present the results of their discussion.
8. Students are given the chance to express their
opinions if there are different opinions. Develop and
9. The teacher gives feedback in the form of present the
additions and justifications if there is a wrong results of the
concept. discussion
Closing 1. The teacher gives a quiz related to the material of 15 minutes Analyze and
probabilities of independent event and conditional evaluate the
probabilities problem
2. Teacher with students make the conclusion solving
3. Teacher gives a homework and remembering to process
prepare their self for the future material.

Knowing,

Malang, 1st February 2019

The Headmaster of Elementary School The Teacher of

Mathematics

................................................... ...................................................
 NIP. NIP.

F. The Assessment of learning

1. Type of assessment : groups and individual
2. Instrument of assessment : worksheet dan quiz
3. Procedure of assessment :

The first meeting

Instrument of
Rated aspect Note
assessment
Knowledge:
a. Write down information Worksheet Groups
and make questions
related to the
probabilities of
compound event and
probabilities of mutually
exclusive
b. Develop and present the Worksheet Groups
results of the discussion
about probabilities of
compound event and
probabilities of mutually
exclusive
c. Make conclusion related Worksheet Groups and individual
to the probabilities of
compound event and
probabilities of mutually
exclusive.
d. Solve the problem Quiz Individual
related to the
probabilities of
compound event and
 probabilities of mutually
exclusive.

The second meeting

Instrument of
Rated aspect Note
assessment
Knowledge:
Worksheet Groups
a. Write down information
and make questions
related to the
probabilities of
independent event and
conditional probabilities
b. Develop and present the
Worksheet Groups
results of the discussion
about probabilities of
independent event and
conditional probabilities
c. Make conclusion related
Worksheet Groups and individual
to the probabilities of
independent event and
conditional probabilities
d. Solve the problem
Quiz Individual
related to the
probabilities of
independent event and
conditional probabilities
NOTE:
…………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………………

Knowing,

Malang, 1st February 2019

The Headmaster of Elementary School The Teacher of

Mathematics

................................................... ...................................................
NIP. NIP.