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November 1, 2010 - Blumenthal Up 9 Points In Connecticut Senate Race, Quinnipiac University

Poll Finds; Governor's Race Too Close To Call

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In the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, Republican Linda McMahon has narrowed the gap slightly in the
last week but still trails State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, 53 - 44 percent
among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 54 - 42 percent Blumenthal lead in an October 26 likely voter survey by the
independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.
The governor's race is now too close to call, with 48 percent of likely voters for Republican Tom Foley
and 45 percent for Democrat Dan Malloy, compared to a small 48 - 43 percent Malloy lead October
26.
In today's Senate survey, Blumenthal leads 93 -6 percent among Democrats while McMahon is ahead
87 - 13 percent among Republicans. Independent voters, who went 56 - 40 percent for Blumenthal last
week, now tip 49 - 44 percent for McMahon. Only 3 percent are undecided and 5 percent of voters
who name a candidate say they could change their mind.
Women back Blumenthal 61 - 36 percent. Men go to McMahon 50 - 46 percent.
"Linda McMahon's mini surge may be too little, too late," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director
Douglas Schwartz, PhD.
"Independent voters, who have been very volatile in this election season, are shifting back to the
Republican candidates in both the Senate and governor's races."
By a 53 - 43 percent margin, likely voters have a favorable opinion of Blumenthal, compared to 55 -
39 percent last week.
McMahon gets a negative 43 - 50 percent favorability, virtually unchanged from last week.
Governor's Race
In the governor's race, Foley leads 89 - 7 percent among Republicans while Malloy leads 88 - 9
percent among Democrats. Independent voters shift from 50 - 41 percent for Malloy last week to 55 -
33 percent for Foley today. Another 6 percent of likely voters are undecided and 11 percent of those
who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
Men back Foley 51 - 43 percent, while women back Malloy 48 - 43 percent.
Malloy gets a split 44 - 41 percent favorability from Connecticut likely voters, compared to 47 - 34
percent last week. Foley's 48 - 34 percent favorability compares to 45 - 33 percent last week.
"The late deciders are breaking for Tom Foley. There has been a big shift among independents in the
final week of the campaign toward the Republican," Dr. Schwartz said.
"Dan Malloy's unfavorables have risen to the point where he gets a mixed favorability rating for the
first time.
"For Foley to win, he needs to win the independent vote by a substantial margin, which he is now
doing for the first time. But this race is too close to call. With 6 percent still undecided there is still
room for movement.
"Foley has the numerical lead and the momentum but Malloy still could pull this out."
From October 25 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 930 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of
error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey,
Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more
data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the
Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to
choose today, would you vote for Malloy or Foley? (This table includes Leaners)
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Malloy 45% 7% 88% 33% 43% 48%

Foley 48 89 9 55 51 43
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -
DK/NA 6 4 2 12 5 8

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS........
CAND CHOICE Q1
Tot DM TF

Made up 89% 89% 89%

Might change 11 11 10
DK/NA - - -

2. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 44% 13% 79% 33% 42% 46%

Unfavorable 41 75 11 45 46 36
Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 8 17 10 12
REFUSED 4 3 2 4 2 6

3. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 48% 82% 20% 48% 50% 45%

Unfavorable 34 8 60 29 33 36
Hvn't hrd enough 13 8 14 19 13 14
REFUSED 5 2 7 4 4 5
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Richard
Blumenthal the Democrat and Linda McMahon the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If
undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Blumenthal or McMahon? (This table
includes Leaners)
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Blumenthal 53% 13% 93% 44% 46% 61%

McMahon 44 87 6 49 50 36
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - -
DK/NA 3 1 1 6 4 2

4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS........
CAND CHOICE Q4
Tot RB LM

Made up 95% 96% 93%

Might change 5 4 7
DK/NA - - -

5. Is your opinion of - Richard Blumenthal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about
him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 53% 17% 86% 50% 45% 64%

Unfavorable 43 81 10 47 51 33
Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 3 1 3 2
REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1

6. Is your opinion of - Linda McMahon favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 43% 80% 10% 47% 48% 36%

Unfavorable 50 14 82 46 41 60
Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 6 4 6 2
REFUSED 4 5 3 4 5 3
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