America’s Energy Future

Casey Emler
ENGL 138T Section 003
April 8, 2019
Abstract:
This issue brief examines the future energy supply in the United States and how a sustainable
energy system can be achieved. By examining current and future resources, I demonstrate the
necessity for an energy transition and how this transition may occur. I use two major research
strategies: (1) a quantitative analysis of county-level and world-wide data and (2) research from
experts. Data have been collected from journals, trustworthy websites, and published reports.
This dissertation challenges the argument that a movement away from fossil fuels is not
necessary. Some view a switch to renewable energy as unnecessary at this time and as a problem
that should be addressed in the future, but typically these groups are driven by profit. By
pledging more funding to the expansion of current renewable energy and the research and
development of new sources, a sustainable supply of energy can be created over the next 500
years.

“There is one forecast of which you can already be sure: someday renewable energy will be the
only way for people to satisfy their energy needs. Because of the physical, ecological and social
limits to fossil energy use, ultimately nobody will be able to circumvent renewable energy as the
solution, even if it turns out to be everybody's last remaining choice. The question keeping
everyone in suspense, however, is whether we shall succeed in making this radical change of
energy platforms happen early enough to spare the world irreversible ecological mutilation and
political and economic catastrophe.”
-Hermann Scheer, General Chairman of the World Council for Renewable Energy
1. Introduction
Dating back as far as a million years, humans harnessed the power of energy through the use
of burning wood and for hundreds of thousands of years, it remained the only energy source. The
fossil fuel coal was used as long ago as 1,000 B.C, but it wasn’t until the Industrial Revolution
that started in the mid-1700s that coal began to replace biomass as the primary source of energy.
The Industrial Revolution was the start of an increasing demand for energy as technology
increased and more people populated the Earth. In 1859, Edwin L. Drake drilled the world’s first
oil well in Texas that launched the modern petroleum industry. By the early 1900’s, oil and
natural gas began to overtake coal as the primary energy sources to power newly developed cars,
airplanes, and buildings.
Since this time, very little has changed as America is still heavily reliant on oil, natural gas,
and coal. These three major fossil fuels accounted for about 77.6% of U.S. primary energy
production in 2017. This percentage is at or near its peak as the United States, and the world, are
on the verge of another energy evolution similar to past transitions. As non-renewable sources of
energy are exhausted, alternative sources of energy will need to be expanded. The main
alternative that is being pursued is renewable sources of energy.

Legend Power Systems take on the expansion of clean renewable energy in the future (1).
 Renewable energy is the fastest-growing energy source in the United States, increasing 67
percent from 2000 to 2016. This is due to two factors: depleting fossil fuel sources and climate
change. With rising global surface temperatures due to fossil fuel consumption, the environment
is in grave danger with possibly catastrophic consequences now coming into the limelight. Never
before has the world so self-consciously tried to move towards new sources of energy. In 2013,
merely 47 percent of United States adults said priority should be given to alternative energy
sources over fossil fuels. In 2017, Pew Research center reported that this number had
skyrocketed to 65 percent. Assuming that this increase was consistent across the worldwide
population, 1.35 billion people across the world changed their perception of fossil fuels in four
years. Converting this verbal support into action is what is truly needed by pledging more
funding to the expansion of current renewable energy and the research and development of new
sources.

2. Non-Renewable Sources
Non-renewable energy sources do not form or replenish over short periods of time. The
typical rate of production is hundreds of millions of years. These resources are broken into two
categories: fossil fuels and nonrenewable fuel. Coal, crude oil, and natural gas are all considered
fossil fuels because they were formed from the buried remains of plants and animals that lived
millions of years ago. Uranium, an element used in nuclear energy, is considered a nonrenewable
fuel due to its limited abundance.
In this section, the four current leading non-renewables will be addressed: coal, crude oil,
natural gas, and nuclear power. A background will be provided for each energy source to
demonstrate the brevity of future use.
2.1 Coal
Although currently coal is responsible for 27.4 percent of energy production in the United
States (2), the fuel source that powered the industrial revolution is past its prime. With an
estimated 1.1 trillion tons of coal reserves worldwide, a 150-year supply remains at current
production levels (3).
2.2 Crude Oil
After taking millions of years to form, the products of crude oil take mere seconds to burn.
The most accurate estimate of the world’s all-time oil consumption was made in 2005 by John
Jones, a researcher at the University of Aberdeen. According to Jones, 135 billion tons of crude
oil have been extracted since drilling began (4). If one 42-gallon barrel of oil weighs 300 pounds,
900 billion barrels of oil have been extracted over the past two hundred years. The more pressing
concern is how much oil remains and one of the most cited estimates is a recent projection by BP
in 2014. This report estimated that based on oil reserve estimates, the world has 53 years of oil
remaining (5). The report estimated the reserve amount at 1,688 billion barrels and at current
consumptions levels, these reserves will be depleted by 2067.
2.3 Natural Gas
The United States is the world’s largest natural gas producer due to its abundant supply of the
resource. Natural gas supplies nearly a third of America’s energy and is the main source of
heating fuel for households. As of January 2016, there was an estimated 2,462 trillion cubic feet
of recoverable natural gas reserves. At current consumption rates of 27.5 trillion cubic feet per
year, the United States has approximately 90 years of natural gas remaining (6).
2.4 Nuclear
Nuclear energy occurs from the action of splitting an atom’s nucleus, where enormous
amounts of energy are stored. The most commonly used atom in nuclear power plants is
Uranium-235 due to its high radioactivity. The energy released by Uranium is 200 megaelectron
volts per split atom according to the World Nuclear Association. Comparatively, an atom of
carbon releases 4 electron volts when burned in fossil fuels. This means nuclear fusion yields 50
million times more energy than fossil fuels per atom. One nuclear power plant produces as much
energy as 1500 wind turbines and 11 percent of the world’s electricity is supplied by a mere 450
nuclear reactors (7).
The Nuclear Energy Agency estimates that there is a 230-year supply of Uranium at current
consumption rates (8). Further improvements into exploration and use of Uranium is projected to
at least double this estimate to nearly 500 years’ worth of Uranium. There is also a massive
supply of Uranium in the ocean and future technology into extracting this source could create a
60,000-year supply (9).

3. Renewable Sources
Renewable energy sources are inexhaustible but limited in the amount that is available at any
given moment of time. The energy is generated from natural processes and is continually
replenished. A big problem in renewable energy is that, for the first time, the world is moving
towards new energy sources that are in many ways less useful and convenient than the currently
dominant fossil fuels. Oil and natural gas are easily transported, can be stored, and are densely
packed with energy. Renewable sources of energy present new challenges as building solar or
wind farms is a land and monetarily intensive process and the energy they deliver is often
intermittent and difficult to store. The most difficult aspect of a transition from non-renewables
to renewable sources is the sheer size. Replacing even half of the fossil fuels consumed today
would require 6 terawatts of renewable energy. In contrast, renewables today produce just 0.5
terawatt.
In this section, the four leading renewables will be addressed: geothermal, wind,
hydroelectric, and solar.
3.1 Geothermal
Since its foundation, heat has been generated and radiated from Earth’s core. It is estimated
that the center of Earth has a temperature similar to the surface of the sun, or 1000 degrees
Fahrenheit. Through this heat, 42 million megawatts of power radiate from the core. This heat
then rises throughout the layers of Earth to the surface.
Currently in the United States there are 64 operating geothermal power plants having a power
capacity of 3,187 megawatts. According to a recent panel led by the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, geothermal energy in the United States has the potential to reach 100,000
megawatts by 2060(10). This is the entire energy consumption for the country of France.
 3.2 Wind
Wind is caused by differences in temperature. When the sun warms the Earth, it does so
unevenly. This is because the sun hits parts of the Earth at different angles which result in
differences in warming. The Earth also has mountains and oceans which causes some areas to be
warmer or colder than others. Because of this, there are pockets of warm air (gas) and cold air.
Gases behave differently at varying temperatures which causes differences in pressure in the
atmosphere. These gases behave in such a manner that they move from high to low pressure in a
process known as diffusion. The gasses in essence want to balance out and make everything
equal. The bigger the difference in pressure, the faster the gasses move. This rush of air from
high to low pressures is what humans feel as wind.
In 2016, wind energy accounted for over 5.5 percent of total electricity consumption in the
United States (11). In the high production states of Iowa, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma and
North Dakota, wind power accounted for more than 20 percent of electricity consumption. Wind
energy is now the second leading source of renewable energy behind hydroelectric and is quickly
closing in on the top spot. This industry is only expanding, with 13.9 billion dollars having been
invested in new turbines in 2016. There is now a fleet of over 52,000 wind turbines in the United
States (12).
3.3 Hydroelectric
Hydroelectric power uses the power of running water to produce electricity and does not
consume any of this water. Production does not release pollutants into the air or water and
substitutes for the energy generation from fossil fuels which contribute to climate change.
Hydroelectric power also provides price stability as water is not affected by price fluctuations in
the market such as oil and natural gas which provides a consistent and fair price for the future.
Hydroelectric operations range in size from very small to massive. The Three Gorges Dam in
China is the largest hydroelectric plant in the world and can produce 22,500 megawatts of
electricity. The Dam is nearly 600 feet tall, 7,770 feet wide, and creates the Three Gorges
Reservoir which is 400 square miles in surface area (13).
Across the United States, 58 hydroelectric powerplants produce 42 billion kilowatt hours of
electricity per year which is enough power to meet the needs of 14 million Americans (14). These
58 power plants currently account for approximately 10 percent of the electricity generation in
America. Worldwide, hydroelectric plants produce 17 percent of total electricity production.
3.4 Solar
Albert Einstein stated that the quantum of light behaved like a particle and this particle would
soon become known as a photon. A photon is the fundamental particle of light that is both a
particle and a wave. When the sun shines, photons strike the top silicon panel of solar cells. The
top panel is negatively charged which means it carries excess electrons. When a photon particle
hits the panel, it knocks out an electron from the panel into the electric field between both panels.
These jarred loose electrons then flow through the electric field which produces direct current
electricity.
Solar energy, since its inception, has become the second most widely used and abundant
renewable energy source. From 2008 to 2018, the amount of solar energy produced in the United
States increased from 1.2 to 30 gigawatts (15). That’s seventeen times the initial amount in a mere
ten-year span. This increase was aided by the decreasing price of solar panels. Since 2010, the
average price of solar panels has decreased by 60 percent (16). Due to this fact, solar energy is the
fastest growing electricity source in the United States and by 2050, solar energy is expected to
account for 36 percent of US renewable energy production (17).

4. Solution
53 years of oil. 90 years of natural gas. 150 years of coal. 230 years of Uranium. When the
numbers are calculated, the future for these energy sources that humans are currently so
dependent on is not promising.

Percentage of Non-Renewable Resources Remaining compiled by EnergyTrends (18).

1 billion years of wind. 1 billion years of sun. 1 billion years of water. 1 billion years of
geothermal heat. A billion years is the most widely recognized estimate of the amount of time
humans have left on Earth (19). The sun is increasing in brightness and in one billion years, Earth
will no longer be able to sustain water and thus will be uninhabitable. Therefore, for as long as
humans are on Earth, renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydroelectric, and
geothermal will be able to provide electricity.
In a research report conducted by Markus Brede, the University of Southampton researcher
describes the process of the energy transition (20). The energy transition is the termed coined for
our shift from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy. At first, competition for fossil fuel
resources induces planning strategies that focus heavily on early, fossil-fuel based economic
growth. From a resource depletion perspective, these high-consumption strategies are
unsustainable. Fossil fuel reliance continues up to or beyond a point where a transition to the
initially costlier renewable resources would have been economically rational. As a consequence,
countries are forced into significantly steeper energy transitions. This process will be accelerated
by the rise in fossil fuel costs because of depletion.
The optimal time for the energy transition is now and the key is ensuring contributions from
variable renewable sources. Variability in the supply is the only way that reliability, security,
affordability, and environmental sustainability can be achieved. Variability in renewable energy
for the future can be attained by expanding current renewable energy and continually funding the
research and development of new sources.
 4.1 Expansion
According to the International Energy Agency, total energy consumption worldwide was
23,106.86 terawatts which is equivalent to 23,106.86×109 kilowatts (21). The agency also reports
that renewable energy accounts for 21.1% of electricity production (22) (4,875×109 kilowatts).
With the end goal of a completely renewable sourced energy supply, 18,231×109 kilowatts of
energy production must be converted to renewable sources.
Wind and solar photovoltaic power generation have the most potential as the cost of generating
electricity using these sources has significantly decreased in the past decade. Wind and solar are
also complementary as wind often peaks at night and sunlight peaks during the day. Wind and
solar ideally should account for 90 percent of the total electricity production. Using hydroelectric
power to fill in the gaps (as it does in our current infrastructure) allows for demand to be
precisely met by supply in most cases. Other current renewable sources such as geothermal,
wave, and tidal can help hydroelectric to account for the remaining 10 percent. Hydroelectric
plants alone already produce more than 10 percent of the world’s electricity supply so the
concentration of effort should be focused on solar and wind.
To supply the 18,231×109 kilowatts of energy currently provided by nonrenewable sources, solar
and wind production must expand by 9,115×109 kilowatts each. The average cost in 2017 to
produce and install solar systems was approximately $2,000 per kilowatt and wind systems were
around $1,200 per kilowatt (23). The cost of solar would be 18.230 quadrillion US dollars and
wind would be 10.938 quadrillion US dollars. This is equivalent to 18,230 and 10,938 trillion
dollars respectively for a total cost of 29,168 trillion dollars.
A daunting figure but upon closer inspection, becomes slightly more manageable. These 29,168
trillion dollars do not need to spent in a single year or even a single century as non-renewable
sources of energy haven’t run out yet. The 53 years of oil, 90 years of natural gas, 150 years of
coal, and 230 years of Uranium remaining are all estimates based on known reserves that are
accessible at this time. These estimates do not take into account undiscovered deposits nor
known reserves that are not currently economically accessible. With increasing technology and
new deposits, these numbers are significantly underestimated with oil approximations around a
250-year supply. 250 years is a solid approximation for each of the nonrenewable sources which
gives humanity 250 years to spend 29,168 trillion dollars. This comes down to 116.7 trillion
dollars a year. Although still large, this is a much more manageable amount. Even still, not taken
into account of this estimate is the decreasing reliance on nonrenewable sources as more
renewable sources are used. As less oil, natural gas, coal, and Uranium is used each year, the
longer the supply remains. The 250-year supply is based on current consumption rates and as
consumption rates are continually decreased, the duration of the supply is continually increased.
If the transition is started now, this will double the supply to 500 years and lower the capital
input of a transition to 58 trillion dollars a year.
This will be a burden to society but is a necessary transition to not only ensure the energy future,
but to also ensure the survival of humankind. With carbon dioxide levels at their highest level in
2 to 4.6 million years due to the combustion of fossil fuels, the Earth and its inhabitants are in
danger (24). This energy transition will help to mitigate the impacts of fossil fuel consumption
while also taking their place as the energy source of the future. In 500 years, the planet can be
100 percent reliant on renewable sources of energy that are both environmentally friendly and
sustainable.
4.2 New Sources
At one time, wood was the greatest source of energy imaginable. Then it was coal, then oil, and
now it is solar and wind energy. The “best” source of energy is always changing because
innovation and discovery lead to progress. Amazing as they are, solar and wind energy, by most
odds, aren’t the best source for energy. Technological advancement continues to lead to the
development of new sources of energy and the research and expansion into these sources can
never stop. Countries and companies around the world are investing massive amounts of
resources into potential sources of electricity for the future. Energy sources such as carbon
capture, methane hydrate, space based solar, and nuclear fusion are all being explored among
others. The most promising of these is nuclear fusion: the energy source that powers the sun.
Nuclear fusion produces no greenhouse gases, no nuclear waste, and releases huge amounts of
energy. There are fusion machines located around the world making it a truly international
project similar to the human genome project. With the ability to provide an inexhaustible supply
of energy, nuclear fusion provides a glimpse into a better future characterized by a stable and
limitless energy supply. Given the research presented in this issue brief, continued research into
new sources of energy combined with the expansion of current renewable sources will ensure the
energy future.
Endnotes
1. “World Energy Supply 1971-2030.” Legend Power Systems, Legend Power Systems Inc.,
2017, legendpower.com/uncategorized/world-energy-supply-past-and-future/.
2. “U.S. Energy Information Administration.” What Is U.S. Electricity Generation by
Energy Source?, US Department of Energy, 2019.
3. “Where Is Coal Found?” World Coal Association, World Coal Association, 9 Aug. 2017,
www.worldcoal.org/coal/where-coal-found.
4. Jones, John. “How Much Oil Have We Used?” Petro Online, International Labmate
Limited, 30 Apr. 2015.
5. “Sustainability Report.” BP Global, BP P.l.c., 2014, www.bp.com/.
6. “U.S. Energy Information Administration.” How Much Natural Gas Does the United
States Have, and How Long Will It Last?, U.S. Energy Information Administration, 1
Jan. 2016.
7. “Nuclear Power in the World Today.” Nuclear Power Today, World Nuclear Association,
Feb. 2019.
8. Fetter, Steve. “How Long Will the World's Uranium Supplies Last?” Scientific American,
Scientific American, Mar. 2009, www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-long-will-
global-uranium-deposits-last/.
9. Ibid.
10. Tester, Jefferson W, et al. The Future of Geothermal Energy. US Department of Energy,
2006, pp. 1–372, The Future of Geothermal Energy.
11. “US Wind Generation Reached 5.5% of the Grid in 2016.” AWEA, American Wind
Energy Association, 6 Mar. 2017.
12. Ibid.
13. Perlman, Howard. “Three Gorges Dam: The World's Largest Hydroelectric Plant.” Three
Gorges Dam: World's Biggest Hydroelectric Facility, US Geological Survey, 2 Dec.
2017.
14. Bureau of Reclamation Power Resources Office. Hydroelectric Power. Hydroelectric
Power, US Department of the Interior, 2005.
15. “Solar Energy in the United States.” Energy.gov, US Department of Energy Office of
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
16. Ibid.
17. “Renewable Energy.” Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Center for Climate and
Energy Solutions, 1 Nov. 2017.
18. “The World's Energy Consumption and Resources.” Energy Trends Insider, Energy
Trends Insider, 24 Aug. 2010, www.energytrendsinsider.com/2010/08/24/energy-
resources-consumption/.
19. Starr, Michelle. “Scientists Have Figured Out When And How Our Sun Will Die, And
It's Going to Be Epic.” ScienceAlert, ScienceAlert, 7 May 2018.
20. Brede, Markus, and Bert J. M. de Vries. “The Energy Transition in a Climate-
Constrained World: Regional vs. Global Optimization.” Environmental Modelling &
Software, vol. 44, June 2013, pp. 44–61. EBSCOhost, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.07.011.
21. “Total Electricity Consumption.” Statistics, International Energy Agency, 2019.
22. “OECD Electricity Production by Source 1974-2016.” International Energy Agency,
International Energy Agency, 8 Aug. 2017.
23. “Barriers to Renewable Energy Technologies.” Union of Concerned Scientists, Union of
Concerned Scientists, 20 Dec. 2017.
24. Bartoli, Gretta, et al. “Atmospheric CO2 decline during the Pliocene Intensification of
Northern Hemisphere Glaciations.” Paleoceanography, vol. 26, no. 4, 2011,
doi:10.1029/2010pa002055.