Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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TIP: you can browser-search this page for any term, like “vaccines,”
“bee colony collapse,” “robots,” “Bill Gates,” “grumpy,” “Mars,” “coral
reefs,” or “gold,” and you’ll probably find something interesting. Skim it
to get started, but don’t rush to judgment — follow the links before you
make up your mind.
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18/4/2019 In Reality: A New Worldview Just for You – David Siegel – Medium
Humans learn best through stories, so the best storytellers own the
market in understanding the world, but they are usually the wrong
people to understand a problem in the first place. Those who write
books and give talks onstage are contest winners and storytellers, not
statisticians and scientists.
We’ve been taking the blue pill all our lives, and now I’m going to hand
you the red pill and show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. Let’s look
at two quick topics and bring them into the light of reality.
Nutritional reality
There are thousands of people with nutrition PhDs. Almost all of them
are based on very poor research, bad statistical analysis, conclusions
that contradict each other, and rigorous nonsense.
In reality, we simply don’t know. (I’d write a book called What we Don’t
Know about Nutrition, but a) it would be huge, and b) no one would
buy it.) Most people believe they have a nutritional mental model that
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fits reality, but it is based on stories not evidence. (Much more on this
below.)
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control of interest rates and let the Treasury handle the balance sheet.
Citizens should have electronic accounts with the central bank directly.
This is called Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) — something many
central banks are looking into (but not doing). The Bank of England
should consider something similar. In this video, I explain NGDP level
targeting:
What causes financial bubbles? I don’t believe they exist. They are a
story told in reverse after a shock. Most “bubbles” — from the Dutch
Tulipmania* to the Great Depression to the housing bubble — are very
poorly understood by experts and the general public. Cause and effect
is a story told in reverse but rarely applies again. In reasonably liquid
markets, prices accurately reflect the market’s assessment of upside and
downside . If traders could easily short (bet against the rise of) any
asset, that would make markets even more efficient.
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18/4/2019 In Reality: A New Worldview Just for You – David Siegel – Medium
Does rent-control work? It works for the people who are renting those
low-priced apartments! Many of them have nice second homes that
they rent out or enjoy on weekends. This policy can interfere with
market forces and reduce rennovation and new building. Tennants
argue in favor of rent control, and there may be other ways to achieve
the same ends, but a thorough review of the literature concludes that it
provides no net benefit.
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18/4/2019 In Reality: A New Worldview Just for You – David Siegel – Medium
same plateau. Even Warren Buffett says he can’t beat the market (and
hasn’t in over 20 years). Those who have an edge over the market
usually make money until their edge disappears, often surprisingly
quickly. The problem is skewness, which you can understand from
reading this technical paper or by reading The Black Swan, by Nassim
Taleb. My favorite book on investing is A Man for All Markets, by Ed
Thorp.
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18/4/2019 In Reality: A New Worldview Just for You – David Siegel – Medium
Should I invest in mutual funds? No, they add no value, they are
“expensive sheep” getting eaten by the wolves. Some small number of
mutual funds beat index funds each year, only to be dethroned by other
lucky funds the next year. Passive investing produces the best long-term
results on average; getting phenomenally lucky produces the best long-
term results.
How do we choose leaders in the US, and do they matter? The way
we elect government officials is bizarre, people with deeper voices get
elected more often, and presidents have less impact on the economy
than we think. Studies show that CEOs are far less impactful on their
firms than is generally believed. Presidents and CEOs tend to be much
taller than average because we are biased toward thinking tall people
are better leaders, but they aren’t.
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18/4/2019 In Reality: A New Worldview Just for You – David Siegel – Medium
Does the income tax work? It manages to raise the money the
government spends. But at what cost? In the US, the IRS spends $11
billion each year to collect $3 trillion, but this doesn’t count the cost of
compliance to taxpayers and companies, which amounts to around
$400 billion dollars, and another $400 billion is not collected. The US
tax code is so complex that even the IRS doesn’t understand it, and it
takes 6 billion hours each year to compute and pay (or not pay) it. The
tax gap in Europe is on the order of $1 trillion per year. Taxing
consumption and luxury aligns incentives better. One exciting proposal
is the Fair Tax, which allows for a “prebate” that pays all citizens a
certain amount, helping those who need it (also lets us experiment
with universal basic income). Another is the Harberger scheme for
valuing and taxing assets. Serious tax reform can reduce tax-collection
costs by over ninety percent.
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Is CEO pay justified? Here, the data is mixed. On one side, we have
data showing there is no correlation between CEO pay and company
performance.* A growing body of research also shows that pay for
performance does not work, yet CEO salaries drift ever upward as a
result of popular myths that these tall, mostly white male, lucky people
are worthy leaders. On the other hand, one study showed that
companies with well-compensated CEOs far outperform those with
lower-paid CEOs and Tyler Cowen argues that CEOs capture less of the
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Are diamonds really scarce? They are not scarce. To see how much
they are worth, try to sell a used diamond. A diamond is simply a signal
of spending money. The DeBeers company began a marketing
campaign in 1938 to convince men to spend an entire paycheck on an
engagement ring. It worked like a charm! Women now expect this
symbol of forever and feel less worthy if they don’t get it. Diamond
prices do not reflect supply and demand.
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18/4/2019 In Reality: A New Worldview Just for You – David Siegel – Medium
Now for the bad news: most marginal (extra) health-care dollars do not
bring more health. The Rand health care study extensively compared
people spending different amounts on health care and found no
difference in outcomes. Studies of states where health care costs differ
widely for the same drugs/treatments show no difference in outcomes.
The economics of health care are highly skewed, manipulated, and
gamed. Doctors still don’t wash their hands! It should come as no
surprise that doctors often treat according to what makes the most
money, not what is best for patients. Canadians with Cystic Fibrosis
live, on average, 10 years longer than Americans with the same
condition. In the US, we are wasting between a quarter and half of our
healthcare dollars each year, much of it on excessive administration,
the most complex cases and end-of-life for elderly people, though those
costs have started to come down in the last decade. Canada’s
administrative fees are far lower than those in the US. Health care
reform is necessary to save the US from spending ever more and getting
ever less.
Is smoking really bad for you? Yes, it’s remarkably bad. Smoking
causes one out of every four deaths from cardiovascular disease. Even
one cigarette per day increases chances of heart disease. Taxing
cigarettes reduces their use.
Should women get screened for breast cancer? If you get a positive
mammogram, you are likely to be treated, and too many of those
treatments are unnecessary and can lead to harm or death. This is a
much-studied but very difficult topic that takes many years to see
results. Mammography is the gold standard; thermography is
quackery. Here are the current recommendations from Uptodate.com
for women who don’t have any risk factors: Below age 40: no screening;
40–49: It’s up to you, but ask yourself and your doctor what you will do
if you get a positive; 50+ they recommend screening every two years.
Consult a qualified statistician before entering the medical sales funnel.
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18/4/2019 In Reality: A New Worldview Just for You – David Siegel – Medium
Should we get regular check-ups? The studies are clear on this: They
do more harm than good, both economically and medically. While
there are a few outlying conditions that could be caught early in a
check-up, it also puts many people on a slippery slope of medical
intervention. A cost-benefit analysis says check-ups are a losing
proposition. The rule is: don’t see a doctor unless you have symptoms that
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you think won’t go away otherwise. The human body runs well on most
fuel, without vitamins and other interventions.
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are promising but need more research. Ultimately, we will have stem-
cell-based therapies, but they are decades away.
Does using cell phones cause cancer? No they don’t. I’ll let Derek
take you through the literature.*
Should you have your wisdom teeth removed if they don’t hurt?
No.
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What about metal tooth fillings? We don’t have any reason to believe
that they are toxic or a danger.
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in ten years we’ll have better options. For now, Dr Susan Ott’s site is a
good place to learn more. More on this topic in the Epilogue.
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Do statins make you live longer? Only if you take them daily. Statins
(cholesterol-lowering drugs) are some of the most studied drugs in
history. We know from many many studies that they prolong life.
Statins are cheap, have few side effects, and extend life. They aren’t for
everyone — there are risk factors and side effects. Dr Rob Siegel (yes
relation) says: “For patients who tolerate them, statins lower LDL and
lead to health benefits that exceed what we would expect from LDL
lowering alone.” If you tolerate them and you’re over 40, talk with your
doctor about taking statins for the rest of your life. I do.
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Why are adults and children so much fatter than 40 years ago?
People are definitely getting fatter, it causes more disease, and we don’t
know why it’s happening. There are many interesting hypotheses and
none of them has emerged as the clear cause. Could it be portion sizes?
Urbanization? Gestational? Genetics? Carbohydrates? Breastfeeding?
Ethnicity? Watching TV? Sugar may play a role but probably not as
much as people think. It’s likely a combination and that genetic
differences complicate the situation. We have more questions than
answers.
Are some people gluten intolerant? The market for gluten-free foods
is over $4 billion, yet there is almost no real evidence for non-celiac
gluten sensitivity.* It’s likely that most people who believe they are
gluten intolerant aren’t, and a few are potentially pre-celiac or
somehow have mild symptoms of celiac disease. If you believe you are
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gluten sensitive, then either you have some degree of celiac disease or
you have something else you are not treating, and that could be
dangerous. I have thought about how to make a home-test kit, but I’m not
sure the market exists — people are willing to spend on gluten-free food but
not on a test.
Are trans-fats bad for us? Yes. Several studies confirm that margarine
made with trans fats contributes to heart disease. One of the few solid
findings in nutrition science!
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What about vegetarians and vegans? I’ve been vegan for 35 years. I
am in good shape and people say I look ten years younger. Research
says there’s no health difference between vegetarians and the rest of
the population and that vegans maybe need to get some B12 and a few
other supplements (we really don’t know). The most recent metastudy
(not a huge amount of data, but probably the best we have to-date)
shows a few general benefits to being vegan and no negative effects.
There is some evidence that vegans have lower bone density and mixed
evidence for higher fracture rates: no fractures for asians (2012), yes
fractures in elderly patients (2009. All this evidence is weak at best.
This Stanford study shows that most people get too much protein and
says: “Vegetarian and even vegan diets typically contain adequate
amounts of protein, including adequate amounts of all 20 amino
acids …” I have been “mostly vegan” for 35 years. I hope there is more
study of these diets. More on my journey in the Epilogue.
Does drinking sugary drinks make people fat? Maybe not (2008). Or
maybe yes (2010). Or maybe yes (2013). My guess: drinking a lot of
sugary drinks definitely makes some people fat. For most people, the
effect is probably less dramatic.
Do diets work? Almost all of them do. For a few weeks or months,
sometimes as long as a year. And then, almost all of them fail. The
weight comes back (though diet and exercise are better than either
alone). The problem is the endocrine system, which is trying to go back
to the “normal” weight from before. Restricting calories in the long
term generally does nothing to reduce weight.* Increasing exercise
tends to be an arms race — you need to exercise more and more just to
not gain the weight back. While some people get out of this trap, at
least ninety percent do not.
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Do low-fat diets work? It was once believed that saturated fats cause
heart disease. We now know it’s more complicated than that. In
general, the stigma against fats is gone, and eating fat in moderation is
part of a healthy diet for most people. In 2005, we thought low-carb
diets actually were better at losing and keeping weight off. Today, we
know less than we knew then. The trend now is away from low-fat
(high carb) diets. Since the 1980s, we have known that unrefined
carbohydrates are absorbed differently from highly refined grains and
starches. The “glycemic index” probably helps steer people toward
healthy options, but I expect it works better for some than others.
What about a ketogenic diet? Nope. This diet may work for people
with diabetes, but it doesn’t work for most.
What about the paleo diet? I think people just made up the idea of a
paleo diet, since actual hunter gatherers had a wide variety of diets. We
have almost zero evidence that the diet promoted in a popular book is
beneficial.
What about antioxidants? They don’t help. They may hurt. I would
present the other side of the argument, but it doesn’t exist.
What about fish oil and omega-3 fatty acids? We thought for a few
decades that antioxidants would help people live longer, but it was
really never more than a hunch. You can see the benefit in a petri dish
but not in studies of human health. At this point, we don’t have any
evidence that they are beneficial. If you’re taking them, read Steve
Novella’s update.
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carbs and fats is good, or working outside most of your life, or a glass of
wine each day (or not (2018), or not! (2012), or some genetic
component is really driving the results. It does seem to be better for
your heart than other diets tested. A growing number of small signals
points more and more to the Mediterranean diet as a pretty good way
to eat, but it’s not a slam dunk and at least one carefully controlled trial
showed no health benefit. Should all Chinese people should start eating
lentils and ciabatta with olive oil? Maybe not, but Australians and
Americans would likely be better o .
What about saturated fat? Prevailing wisdom, circa 1990: that steak
is a widowmaker! In 2010: saturated fat does not cause heart disease.
2017: this excellent article concludes that saturated fat likely is a
contributing factor to heart disease. A 2018 study drew the same
conclusion. So the balance may be tipping again toward reducing
saturated fat (but taking statins is probably more important). If you
don’t have other risk factors and do eat a lot of saturated fat
(remember, coconut oil is saturated), read the 2017 piece.
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variability of individual response (see fig 4). I hope we’ll learn more
about that in the future.
Does exercise help people lose weight? A bit. Not much. If it were a
clear win, we would know. Some people do start an exercise program
and manage to keep the weight off. I don’t think we can explain how it
works for them but not for almost everyone else. Regardless, exercise
helps make people more healthy, even if they don’t lose weight.
Does surgery help people lose weight? For obese and morbidly obese
patients, surgery is far more effective than any other intervention. Here
is the excellent story version.*
Which foods cause cancer? We really have very few clues here,
because cause and effect is so difficult to tease out of so many different
variables. Processed meats very likely do contribute to colorectal cancer
in some people, and well-done meat shows similar potential to cause
cancer. Char-broiled meat probably has some carcinogenic effect. We
might say the same for simple carbohydrates as well. Problem is that
cancer takes a long time, and there are many potential confounders in
the environment, genetics, and other factors. We can’t expect more
information on this without long-term controlled trials, which are
unlikely (Laura and John Arnold — can you help here?).
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often may not take folate and that increases the risk of birth defects. Yet
in extreme cases, there is very likely a higher risk of damage to the
child, whether in the form of birth defects or dependencies or various
forms of mental health. I don’t think we’ll ever know if drinking a glass
of wine a day has any effect — I suspect it doesn’t.
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Should newborn babies get vitamin-K shots? I’m surprised to say the
answer is yes. Normally, I don’t believe in medical intervention with the
birth process, but here the evidence is clear. It may not help your child,
but it helps a small percentage of children, and we can’t tell who ahead
of time — it’s easier to give the shot than to do the test.
Does drinking milk build strong bones? Why should drinking cow’s
milk be good for humans? We don’t have any evidence that drinking
cow’s milk reduces hip fractures, which is how we diagnose
osteoporosis. Also no signal against heart disease. If drinking milk
helped build strong bones, then Asians and people in many other places
that don’t drink milk would have weaker bones and more fractures. Do
they? No (2005). No (2015). For children, it appears that drinking milk
does improve bone mass, but that doesn’t mean they have fewer
fractures when they are older, they don’t (2014). Milk gives you
calories, but billions of people don’t drink it and they are fine.
Does sugar make kids hyper? No (1996). Seriously (2011). Sugar and
behavior may not be linked at all.
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Do people fear losses more than they celebrate gains? This is the
principle behind loss aversion, a central pillar of prospect theory.
Daniel Kahneman relied extensively on this theory for many
conclusions in his work on behavioral economics. As we often learn,
“it’s a little more complicated than that” — a recent paper titled The Loss
of Loss Aversion challenges this theory and claims that most people give
losses and gains roughly equal weight.*
What about choice overload? We’ve heard in books and TED talks
that people don’t want too many choices, they have to be nudged, they
seize up when presented with too many choices, and that they buy
more when they choose from fewer options. That body of work was
based on a tiny number of experiments. A large metastudy shows that
overload is a function of choice-set complexity, decision task difficulty,
preference uncertainty, and decision goal, and these factors make a
simple model impossible. It depends a lot on context. In many cases,
consumers have no problem with a lot of options.
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Do bench trials work? Judges are human. They are not machines.
Machines would almost certainly do a better job.*
Does gun control work? Yes, gun control can save many lives. The US
has one of the least effective gun policies in the world and the results to
show for it. The gun lobby prevents evidence-based policy. It’s a
complex problem, but gun laws, policies, and new technology can help.
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Do small schools have better students than large schools? Bill Gates
thought so. He gave more than $2 billion to the “Small Schools
Movement,” until they realized that larger schools outperform small
schools on almost all measures (we measure “quality” with test scores,
which is silly). In reality, large schools have more resources and give
kids more choices. I would ask Bill and Melinda Gates: What is school
really for? How can we help society move away from tests and signals and
toward more productive, ful lling lives?
Does homework help kids learn? You would think so, but Alfie Kohn
shows evidence that homework does not help. Perhaps if it prevents
kids from doing things that would harm them, but there is very little
academic benefit.
Does a 4-year college education help? For the vast majority of people
going through it, the answer is: the education probably doesn’t, but the
degree de nitely does. We see an “education premium” among people
with degrees in many areas (even bartenders with degrees make more
money than those without), but I believe the effect is the degree
(signal), not the education. The case against secondary education for
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“clues” about how we think. But those clues are often statistically
underpowered and most likely as accurate as astrology in determining
cause and effect. On the other hand, researchers are always looking for
ways to improve, and — even though some of us may be surprised — this
field may eventually bring us closer to understanding ourselves.
Who is poor? Fewer are living on less than $2 a day than we think. A
lot has changed in the past 20 years. Today, the middle class is rising
around the world, even as the divide between rich and poor widens. As
the rich are getting much more wealthy, standards of living continue to
rise across all continents. Our common view is of a huge gap between
rich and poor, but in reality, the rise of the middle class is the big story.
Many things we expect to work don’t actually work. Smart, randomly
controlled trials are showing us how to help poor people make their
way toward the middle class.
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Are robots and Artificial Intelligence stealing our jobs? Not in the
next 30 years, no. History repeatedly shows that as technology replaces
repetitive work, more jobs are created (technological re-employment*).
So far, technological unemployment is largely a myth. We are in the
middle of a long trend of wage polarization*, where middle-paying
non-college jobs are increasingly being replaced, while wages for low-
paying and high-paying jobs have increased. This is a complex topic
with many surprising twists and turns.* I believe we are now (2019) at
“peak o ce worker” for all of human history. I expect the next wave to be
service jobs, which may peak around 2040, after which I think it will be all
about mass replacement and niche specialization until early 2100s, when I
expect most jobs will simply be done by machines.
Is our privacy really at risk? As long as the Internet is free, people will
leave trails that companies like Google pick up, use, sell, and resell. Did
you know that every prescription you’ve ever filled is available for
marketers to buy? Privacy laws in Europe are hurting, not helping —
they are too heavy to be sustainable. Privacy laws in the US can never
keep up with giant technology companies that know every purchase,
every web site, every search term, every mouse click. China is
compiling a “social credit score” on its citizens that started out as a local
incentive to behave well but is now digital, complex, and disturbing*.
Algorithms are getting more and more sophisticated. “Free and easy” is
expensive and limits your choices. My company is trying to change that,
but we will need better protection for consumers.*
Does the art market price works fairly? The art market is almost
entirely arbitrary. Fame and prices are controlled by a small number of
people. There is really no such thing as “good” art, it’s just another
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business. Too many young artists think that they will make a living as
an artist, when market insiders cultivate a small number of early career
“darlings” to invest in, canonize, and profit from.
Does microcredit help the poor? It doesn’t look like it. Randomized
controlled trials have shown very little benefit to borrowers, while
lenders do fairly well. Trying to help people effectively is hard.
Does God exist? Do you mean there’s a white man with a beard
floating in the clouds or in space, even though white people evolved
only about 20,000 years ago? Or do you believe in a higher power? I’ll
let Richard Dawkins, Christopher Hitchens, and Eliezer take it from
here. While plenty of people will disagree, I believe organized religion
does more harm than good and works first and foremost to protect
those at the top of the hierarchy (the agency problem again). Scientists
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who believe in god simply haven’t put enough work into deconstructing
their own internal conflicts. Studies on happiness and life satisfaction
are mixed but interesting. Whatever you believe, is there an amount of
evidence that would change your mind? I walked away from organized
religion at age 13 and never looked back. If I am struck by a bolt of
lightning and killed, it will simply be because I was unlucky.
Can a good player win at poker? Not against other players at the
same level of skill. When someone wins a big tournament, he/she is
hailed as the big new talent, but no one has repeated as world
champion since 1982, and the players themselves say that at the top
tables it’s impossible to predict the winners. These days, top players bet
on each other to spread their risk.
Is it a good idea to buy lottery tickets? No. Not because the odds are
against you, but because the payoff isn’t big enough to give a positive
expected value. Never in history has a fair US or European lottery had
good enough odds to warrant buying a ticket. They disproportionately
take money from the poor. Governments should eliminate public lotteries
and heavily tax private lotteries.
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Structure of the world’s population now and in 2100. Image courtesy of Populationpyramid.net.
Are polar bears threatened? Not at all, polar bear numbers are up
dramatically over the past few decades. Much of the increase is due to
reduced hunting of the animals, which is now down to about 600–800
bear-hunting permits per year. Polar bears are not threatened, they are
thriving.
Are our forests being depleted? Believe it or not, we have more green
acreage now than any time in the last several thousand years. We do
need to promote biodiversity and protect intact ancient forests. This is
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an emergency in a few places, but overall it’s not as bad as the press
makes it sound.
How about DDT? DDT was widely vilified in the 1980s. Researchers
claimed it was responsible for eggshell thinning and birth defects in
raptors.* The alarm was sounded, and as a result DDT use was
curtailed. That led to many more malaria deaths than we would have
had if we had kept using DDT. Recent studies have shown only a tiny
association with birth defects, the trade-offs are worth it to eliminate
malaria, and the WHO includes DDT on the list of approved substances
to kill mosquito eggs.
What about the Ozone hole? It’s likely that CFCs had nothing to do
with the ozone hole and stopping them simply coincided with the
natural reduction of the size of the “hole.” On the other hand, the basic
chemical theory is solid, but we should always ask for direct evidence,
not laboratory evidence. NASA recently reported that the size of the
ozone hole naturally varies a lot over decades. The ozone hole is likely
to continue expanding and contracting naturally. I don’t think there was
ever any emergency. If you have interesting data on this, please send it to
me.
Are we losing all our insect species? We are losing many species, but
it’s not as bad as people think. It’s not an apocalypse, but we should
definitely take steps to limit further breakup of intact ancient forests.
What about the bees? Bee colony collapse was very real in the first
decade of this century. The causes were quite complex, involving many
factors, but it only lasted a few years. Colonies routinely loose bees in
winter; beekeepers have many options for restoring colony numbers in
summer. In general, colony collapse disorder was overblown in the
media. Bee numbers have been predictably steady for decades.
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Should we recycle paper? I don’t know. I can’t find any good studies
on this. I’m guessing it has to do with how far away you live from a
large forest.
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Is plastic and garbage polluting our oceans, killing all the marine
life? No, not as much as you might think, there are no floating acres of
plastic out at sea, no huge garbage patch, and the plastic found in the
ocean is largely under 2mm in diameter (very small pieces) or
microscopic. Half the plastic found in the oceans is floating fishing line
and nets, but the amount overall is trending up. Despite the fact that
our oceans are remarkably resilient, we still should try to reduce the
flow of plastics into them.
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solar does. Forcing wind power to be competitive with other sources will
result in wind power where it truly works.
Is solar power the energy of the future? Solar power has much more
promise than wind, because you can convert sunlight on your roof into
energy to run your house. As prices come down and efficiency goes up,
solar is definitely a smart source of power. We still need traditional
power sources for cloudy days. In reality, electricity prices where there
is a lot of solar are still higher than in the rest of the country because
power plants are not designed to run as back-up generators. It makes
sense to keep investing to make solar more effective, but it is not a full-
time replacement for traditional power.
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papers, and after about six months I changed my mind. What would it
take to change yours? In the last 50 years, we had 30 years of warming
followed by 20 years of no warming.* Model predictions of future
temperatures are both flawed and much less precise than their creators
would like us to believe. The earth hasn’t warmed significantly in the
past 20 years,* defying model estimates. The debate is so political that
it’s very difficult to discover the truth and the uncertainties. Research
and data are highly skewed. IPCCC reports are politically driven. Did
you know there are PhD’ed climate scientists who have quit the UN
working groups and do not agree with the “consensus”? In reality, all
the decarbonization we can do will have very little impact anyway. If
you really want to understand this issue, please read
Climatecurious.com.* If, after reading all the links in this paragraph, you
still believe we have something to worry about, I will respect that view.
And, I’ll be interested to bet on an outcome you can specify in the next ten
years that proves your view correct.
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Facts are not evidence. Facts are everywhere, you can use them to
justify anything. Evidence is everything — you must take the facts you
don’t like along with the facts you like. My video series explains this.
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Doctors really don’t know much. Studies show that doctors are
overconfident, they are as susceptible to bias as anyone else, they often
screw up patient diagnoses, many of them don’t keep up with the
literature in their field, most can’t do basic Bayesian reasoning, they
don’t wash their hands, and using simple checklists saves many lives. I
certainly know some very smart doctors who understand all of this and
are very good at statistics. Smart doctors say “I don’t know” or “it’s
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complicated” more often than other doctors do. If you have a serious
medical decision to make, always consult a quali ed (not certi ed)
statistician.
Empiricism is being open and neutral to changing your mind when you
learn new facts or see new data.
All models are wrong; some models are useful. Nothing is perfect.
We make decisions using very limited information. Yet limited
information is better than no information. If your model isn’t improving
over time, you’re probably not putting enough work into maintaining
your tools.
Myths are stubborn. I’ve pointed out a few myths here, and there are
many more. Once an idea gets momentum, it’s hard to stop. This is why
I’m generally against learning from textbooks. I think if you want to
become knowledgeable about a topic, it would be better to read ten
different books than one textbook. Be wary of statements like “97
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The world isn’t black and white. There are rarely any concrete
answers, context matters, details matter. There is always a continuum
of possibilities and outcomes. Cost-benefit analysis is a better tool than
rhetoric and cherry-picking the facts to suit the outcome you want.
Cognitive biases affect all of us, even those of us who study cognitive
biases. Read Nassim Taleb to get ahead of them. Or let Robin break it
down:
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Scientists try to disprove their theories. They know that almost all
theories are later replaced by something better. A good scientist will
actively try to disprove her theory. There may be heated debate about a
topic for some time (evolution, germs, smoking), but then we all learn
more and science moves forward. Should we think of it as “debate” or
as “learning together?”
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because they have read and discussed hundreds of stories. This leads us
to differential diagnoses* — different people, economies, and countries
need different solutions. One size does not fit all.
Context and details matter. Rationalists often say “I think you’ll find
it’s a little more complicated than that.” ITYFIALMCTT for short. Every
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It’s not always about data. You want to get whatever data you can,
but sometimes can’t or it isn’t very good. I can’t present any data on
abortion that will change anyone’s mind. Abortion is only about values.
We have almost no data on what causes people to live longer, because it
takes too long to do the experiment. This also appears in extreme value
theory, where there aren’t enough events in the past to predict the
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Skeptics tend to be right most of the time, but optimists move the
world forward. Alternate between the two. The Apollo program was a
remarkable see-saw between huge audacious goals and pragmatic
prototyping, testing, and failure. Same with the Wright Brothers. This
ability to make grand leaps but let the experimental evidence lead you
forward is a hallmark of many big successful projects. To understand the
world, be about 70 percent skeptic, 30 percent open to new ideas.
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Hold strong opinions loosely. I learned this from Doug Hubbard after
reading his books. I’ve gotten better at saying “I don’t know, what can
we learn?” When talking with experts, I’m never surprised to hear: “I
think you’ll find it’s a little more complicated than that.”
Books
Thinking Fast and Slow (beginner), by Danny Kahneman
Factfulness (beginner), by Hans Rosling
Mindware (beginner), by Richard Nisbett
Wrong (beginner), by David Freedman
Pull (beginner), by David Siegel
The Elephant in the Brain (beginner), by Kevin Simler and Robin
Hanson
The Black Swan (intermediate), Skin in the Game (intermediate), and
Antifragile (advanced) by Nicholas Nassim Taleb
Uncontrolled: The Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for
Business, Politics, and Society (intermediate)— Jim Manzi
Radical Markets (intermediate), by Weyl and Posner
The Case Against Education (intermediate), by Bryan Caplan
Randomistas (intermediate), by Andrew Leigh
Statistics Done Wrong (advanced), by Alex Reinhart
Stubborn Attachments (intermediate), by Tyler Cowen
How to Measure Anything (intermediate), by Douglas Hubbard
Expert Political Judgment (intermediate), by Philip Tetlock
Principles (beginner), by Ray Dalio
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Web sites
Uptodate.com
Cochrane Library
Google Scholar
PlosOne
Debate.org
Retraction Watch
Econtalk.org
CloserToTruth
Videos
David Siegel Business Agility series
Khan Academy
Marginal University
Veritasium
Tony Heller
Blogs
The Money Illusion — Scott Sumner
Macro Musings — David Beckworth
Essays by David Siegel
The Rational Optimist — Matt Ridley
Marginal Revolution — Tyler Cowen
Overcoming Bias — Robin Hanson
Idiosyncratic Whisk — Kevin Erdmann
Slate Star Codex — Scott Alexander
Crooked Timber — Various
Sciencebasedmedicine.org — Steve Novella et al. (please support
them!)
Straight Talk on Evidence
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Podcasts
Making Sense — Sam Harris
Macro Musings — David Beckworth
Conversations with Tyler — Tyler Cowen
The Recommended Dose — Ray Moynihan
Communities
LessWrong
Students For Best Evidence
Singularity University
IN THE PAST SIX YEARS, I have broken both my hips at the femoral
neck. I got a bone scan and learned that I have osteoporosis, which is
extreme for someone in his 50s who is as sporty as I am. My doctor
prescribed Fosamax, which I learned is not for active people (I’m not
convinced it benefits anyone, but it may help frail elderly people).
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I broke both femurs before age 57 — an extremely unlikely situation possibly caused by my diet (but
we’ll probably never know).
For the record, I also take B-12 tablets, not because I really think I need
them but because they are delicious and it doesn’t hurt. I know there
are recommendations that vegans require extra B-12, but I believe the
evidence for that is very weak. In general, I don’t think vegans need any
special supplements, but I do hope we learn more in the coming years.
Mostly, though, I don’t worry. I’m glad things are generally improving,
they aren’t as bad as people think, and we are naturally finding
solutions to many big problems. Even though the gap between rich and
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poor is widening, the poor are much better off than they were 20 years
ago. The more connected we become, the faster ideas spread.
If you learn to look at the world this way, I think you’ll find it’s a little
more complicated than you thought before. And that might help the
next generation of problem solvers make the world a better place.
My thanks to: Kevin Dick, Rob Siegel, Scott Sumner, Kevin Erdmann,
Satish Luintel, and Mike.
If you want to contact me because you have corrections, can fill gaps in
my knowledge, want to show me evidence or analysis, or you would
like to discuss taking this work to the wider world, please email me
(david at dsiegel dot com). If you have suggestions for topics, I won’t be
able to answer them. If you disagree with me, that’s really not the point
of this — the point is to give you links to data and analysis, so you can
look at new evidence before you decide. Did you?
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speaker page if you would like him to speak at your next event. His full
body of work is at dsiegel.com.
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