Week 0 – Session 2

The stresses on the energy

demand

Sidney LAMBERT-LALITTE

MOOC ENERGY TRANSITION

IFP SCHOOL
Introduction
This lesson presents where we need to go and the multiple challenges on the road towards a
sustainable energy future.

Present & future constraints on energy supply

One thing you have to keep in mind is that no single source of energy is perfect: as a
matter of fact, any energy policy is about finding the ideal balance to provide a
reliable, clean and affordable energy supply.

Reliability is about answering the question: is there enough energy for everyone? In a
close future, energy resources are probably not going to lack. Oil, natural gas and
coal reserves are a function of their price, and as long as we are ready to pay for it,
more resources will be put in production and brought to the final consumer.

This also applies for renewables. Because they are fluxes, no real resource constraints
weigh on the supply of renewable energy. The only issue is our ability to capture the
energy from the sun, wind, biomass or the sea. Moreover, because solar panels, wind
turbines or batteries, require metals and rare earth elements that are available in
limited quantity only, a physical limit could constrain their supply someday.

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The relative prices of energy sources
The second question is the one of the price. The design of an energy mix dominated
at 80% by fossil fuels was mostly driven by the fact that coal, oil and natural gas proved
to be the most affordable energies to support the world economic development
during the 20th century.

This context is rapidly changing as solar photovoltaic and wind technologies have
experienced a major cost reduction for generating electricity in recent years. When
you look at the complete cost of generating electricity over the full life cycle of the
technologies, in many places around the world, wind and solar are now considered
to be highly competitive with traditional sources of energy.

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The issue of climate change
But, the most compelling challenge is without any doubt the issue of climate change.
As fossil fuels constitute the bulk of consumption today, greenhouse gas emissions
released during their combustion, accumulate in the atmosphere and lead to an
increase of global temperatures.

The resulting change of climate will harm life on earth as we know it, and our
economies in ways never seen before since the beginning of mankind. Shrinking sea
ice and smaller snow cover, higher sea level, changes in precipitation and more
frequent extreme weather events will impact populations in many different ways and
force them to adapt or migrate towards more hospitable places.

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Towards a net-zero emissions world
To tackle this problem, all members countries of the United Nations’ Convention on
Climate Change agreed in 2015, when they adopted the Paris Agreement, to limit the
rise of temperatures to “well below 2° Celsius” above the pre-industrial level, a level
that is considered acceptable by the IPCC, the UN scientific body assessing the risks
associated with global warming.

For the IPCC, the +2° Celsius objective is compelling: all countries must collectively
achieve a net-zero level of greenhouse gases emissions as soon as possible in the
second half of the 21st century. This does not necessarily mean the end of fossil fuels,
but it surely means that any emissions at this time will need to be stored underground
(what we call “carbon capture and storage”) or compensated by negative emissions
measures (such as afforestation or direct capture of carbon dioxide in the air).

In 2010, the energy mix of coal, oil and natural gas amounted for 80% of global energy
supply. This world is not sustainable: rising greenhouse gases emissions, but also
associated local pollution in a more and more urban world will be the major
challenges of the century.

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Conclusion
To summarize, there is no single perfect source of energy: it’s always about finding the
right balance between reliability, affordability and the preservation of the
environment.

As resources are not going to lack in a close future, the major issue of the coming
century is climate change.

The goal is clear: we need to achieve a “net-zero” emissions world as soon as possible
to avoid the worst effect of a changing climate.

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