ICCTP 2010

Integrated Transportation Systems

Green•Intelligent•Reliable
PROCEEDINGS OF THE TENTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF
CHINESE TRANSPORTATION PROFESSIONALS

August 4–8, 2010

Beijing, China

SPONSORED BY
North American Chinese Overseas Transportation Association (NACOTA)

Beijing University of Technology (BJUT)

Transportation and Development Institute (T&DI)

of the American Society of Civil Engineers

Transportation Research Board (TRB) Committee on Transportation in

Developing Countries (ABE90)

National Natural Science foundation of China (NSFC)

EDITED BY
Heng Wei, Ph.D., P.E.
Yinhai Wang, Ph.D.
Jian Rong, Ph.D.
Jiancheng Weng, Ph.D.

Published by the American Society of Civil Engineers

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ISBN: 978-0-7844-1127-8

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 Preface

The 10th International Conference of Chinese Transportation Professionals (ICCTP

2010), held in Beijing, China from August 4 through 8, 2010, has greatly promoted
the tradition of North America Chinese Overseas Transportation Association
(NACOTA) in organizing at least two major transportation conferences each year
(one in Washington D.C. and the other in China). ICCTP 2010 is jointly hosted by
NACOTA and Beijing University of Technology (BJUT) with the sponsorships of the
Transportation and Development Institute (T&DI) of American Society of Civil
Engineers (ASCE), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), and
Transportation Research Board (TRB) Committee on Transportation in Developing
Countries (ABE90). To enhance broad impacts and promote NACOTA in an
extensive way, ICCTP has been held in six different cities over the past six years,
including Wuhan, Dalian, Xi’an, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Harbin.

In the last two decades, many large cities in China have experienced the
fastest urban sprawl, which has been resulted in extensive expansion and motorization
of the cities. The threat of increasingly unsustainable transportation systems, in the
large cities, has then become a focus of attention as the awareness of unhealthy
interaction between a tremendously growing demand for transportation services and
the environmental impact of transportation increases. In the meanwhile, a number of
key influences are driving a process of accelerating technological and systematic
changes in transportation systems. For instance, traffic congestion is encouraging
intelligent and green technologies to enhance travel information and traffic
management; traffic safety concerns are leading to a consideration of new
technologies for road design and maintenance and vehicle control; air pollution and
public health concerns are encouraging the innovative systems and technologies to
reduce harmful emissions and the use of alternative fuels; and climate change
concerns are further challenging the research for low-emission and economic fuel-
consumed transportation modes. Therefore, meeting transportation needs that are
environmentally sound, socially equitable, and economically viable in the long term
is encouraging solutions in systematically integrated ways. ICCTP 2010 is held in
such a challenging context with the designated theme of “Integrated Transportation
Systems: Green • Intelligent • Reliable”.

ICCTP 2010 provides a great forum for presenting and exhibiting the authors’
the most recent research results, as well as a platform for discussing new ideas around
the conference theme. Participants in the ICCTP 2010 come from many counties over
the world. A large spectrum of the subjects, which are reflective of the conference
theme, includes the following ten areas: 1) Comprehensive Transportation Planning;
2) Traffic Safety Theory and Technology; 3) Transportation Management, Operation
Technology and Systems; 4) Traffic Flow and Transportation Network Theory; 5)
Intelligent Transportation Systems and Technology; 6) Public Transportation
Technology and Systems; 7) Urban Transportation’s Affect on Environmental Impact
and Protection; 8) Infrastructure Construction and Emerging Technology; 9)
Pavement and Materials Engineering and Highway Maintenance; and 10) Freight
Transportation and Logistics.

NACOTA has started producing the ICCTP proceedings beginning many

years ago. In order to produce high quality articles in the proceedings, NACOTA
organized rigorous paper review from abstract to full paper. This review process is
specifically emphasized this year to ensure the quality of accepted papers. A total of
444 papers have been accepted for the proceedings among about 890 submissions
from authors of seven countries and regions, including Mainland China, Taiwan, the
United States, Canada, Germany, Korea, and Singapore. The proceedings of ICCTP
2010 covers all the ten areas mentioned above and can be used as a great information
source and reference on most recent research and applications in transportation
systems.

Heng Wei, Ph.D., P.E.

Chair of ICCTP 2010 Organizing and Executive Committee

Jian Rong, Ph.D.

Chair of ICCTP 2010 Organizing and Executive Committee

Yinhai Wang, Ph.D.

President of NACOTA
 Chief Editors

Dr. Heng Wei, P.E.

Vice President of NACOTA
Associate Professor
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Cincinnati, USA

Dr. Yinhai Wang

President of NACOTA
Associate Professor
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington, USA

Dr. Jian Rong

Professor and Director
Transportation Research Center
Beijing University of Technology, China

Dr. Jiancheng Weng

Assistant Professor
Transportation Research Center
Beijing University of Technology, China
 Editorial Board

Area* Area Paper Review and Editing Chair

[1] Dr. Zhong, Ming, University of New Brunswick, Canada
[2] Dr. Wang, Xuesong, Tongji University, China
Dr. Cheng, Wen, California State Polytechnic University at Pomona,
USA
[3] Dr. Tian, Zong, University of Nevada, Reno, USA
[4] Dr. Yin, Yafeng, University of Florida, USA
[5] Dr. Zhang, Guohui, University of Texas at Austin, USA
[6] Dr. Wu, Ning, Ruhr University Bochum, Germany
[7] Dr. Gao, Oliver, Cornell University, USA
[8] Dr. Shi, Jing, Tsinghua University, China
[9] Dr. You, Zhanping, Michigan Technological University, USA
[10] Dr. Zhang, Yu, University of South Florida, USA
Dr. Lu, Qing, University of South Florida, USA

*List of Areas:

[1] Comprehensive Transportation Planning

[2] Traffic Safety Theory and Technology
[3] Transportation Management, Operation Technology and System
[4] Traffic Flow and Transportation Network Theory
[5] Intelligent Transportation Systems and Technology
[6] Public Transportation Technology and System
[7] Urban Transportation Affected Environmental Impact and Protection
Transportation
[8] Infrastructure Construction and Emerging Technology
[9] Pavement and Materials Engineering and Highway Maintenance
[10] Freight Transportation and Logistics
 Area Associate Editors
Associate Editors Affiliation
Abdel-Aty, Mohamed University of Central Florida, USA
Adhikari, Sanjeev Morehead State University, USA
Ai, Qingyi University of Cincinnati, USA
Alkire, Bernie D. Michigan Technological University, USA
Amador, Luis University of New Brunswick, Canada
Bagheri, Ehsan University of New Brunswick, Canada
Bai, Song Sonoma Tech, USA
Ban, Xuegang Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USA
Beykaei, Ahad University of New Brunswick, Canada
Bleech, Curtis Michigan Department of Transportation, USA
Buttlar, William G. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
Chen, Hong Chang An University, China
Chen, Hongyun University of South Florida, USA
Chen, Junyi Tongji University, China
Chen, Shuafa Chang An University, China
Chen, Xiaoming (Sammy) University of Utah, USA
Chen, Yanyan Beijing University of Technology, China
Chen, Yuren Tongji University, China
Cheng, Dingxin California State University at Chico, USA
Cheng, Wen California Polytechnic University at Pomona, USA
Dai, Qingli Michigan Technological University, USA
Datla, Sandeep City of Edmonton, Canada
New Brunswick Department of Transportation,
Dhakal, Sharad
Canada
Fang, Shouen Tongji University, China
Fang, Yingwu Virginia Department of Transportation, USA
Feng, Peng Tsinghua University, China
Fini, Elham North Carolina A&T State University, USA
Gadidasu, Satya City of Edmonton, Canada
University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,
Gan, Hongcheng
China
Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of
Gao, Hailong
Communication, China
Gao, Hongyan University of Nevada at Reno, USA
Gao, Song University of Massachusetts at Amherst, USA
Goh, Shu Wei Michigan Technological University, USA
Guan, Hongzhi Beijing University of Technology, China
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University,
Guo, Feng
USA
Guo, Runhua Tsinghua University, China
Guo, Zhongyin Tongji University, China
Associate Editors Affiliation
Hai, Yan Beijing University of Technology, China
Haider, Syed Waqar Michigan State University, USA
Hao, Peiwen Chang An University, China
He, Yulong Beijing University of Technology, China
Hiller, Jacob E. Michigan Technological University, USA
Hu, Jiangbi Beijing University of Technology, China
Hu, Jianming Tsinghua University, China
Hu, Peifeng University of Nevada at Reno, USA
Huang, Helai University of Central Florida, USA
Jiang, Xinguo Southwest Jiaotong University, China
Jin, Xia PB Consultant, USA
Kachua, Shabani University of New Brunswick, Canada
Kilburn, Peter Alberta Department of Transportation, Canada
Kim, Yong-Rak University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA
Kiwelu, Henry University of New Brunswick, Canada
Lao, Yunteng University of Washington, USA
Li, Honglong University of Hawaii, USA
Li, Jin Jilin University, China
Li, Jingquan University of California, USA
Li, Kefei Tsinghua University, China
Li, Keping Tongji University, China
Li, Meng University of California at Berkeley, USA
Li, Ningyuan Ministry of Transportation of Ontario Canada
Li, Xiaopeng University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
Li, Zhixia University of Cincinnati, USA
Liang, Kyle Montgomery County Government, USA
Lin, Deng-Fong I-Shou University, Taiwan
Liu, Henry University of Minnesota at Twin Cities, USA
Liu, Hongchao Texas Tech University, USA
Liu, Jenny University of Alaska at Fairbanks, USA
Liu, Kai Dalian University of Technology, China
Liu, Pan Southeast University, China
Liu, Xiaoyue (Cathy) University of Washington, USA
Liu, Yilin Cornell University, USA
Liu, Yu Michigan Technological University, USA
Lou, Yingyan University of Alabama, USA
Lu, Jian “John” University of South Florida, USA
Lu, Qing University of South Florida, USA
Luo, James BC Highways and Transportation, Canada
Ma, Jianming Texas Department of Transportation, USA
Ma, Xiaolei University of Washington, USA
Meng, Qiang National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Mustafa, Riad University of New Brunswick, Canada
Associate Editors Affiliation
Ni, Daiheng University of Massachusetts at Amherst, USA
Nie, Yu Northwestern University, USA
Nourbakhsh, Mohammad University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
Ouyang, Yanfeng University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
Pan, Ernie The University of Akron, USA
Pan, Peng Tsinghua University, China
Peng, Fan University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA
Qian, Zhen University of California at Davis, USA
Qin, Xiao South Dakota State University, USA
Qiu, Zhijun University of Alberta, Canada
Ren, Gang Southeast University, China
Shan, Rong University of New Brunswick, Canada
Shen, Junan Georgia Southern University, USA
Shen, Shihui Washington State University, USA
Shi, Gang Tsinghua University, China
Shi, Xianming Montana State University, USA
Song Guohua Beijing Jiaotong University, China
Song, Ziqi University of Florida, USA
Sun, Dazhi Texas AM University at Kingsville, USA
Sun, Xiaoduan University of Louisiana, USA
Tarefder, Rafiqul Alam University of New Mexico, USA
Tsai, Yichang (James) Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
Wang, Cara Bucknell University, USA
Wang, Hainian Chang An University, China
Wang, Haizhong University of Massachusetts at Amherst, USA
Wang, Linbing Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University,
USA
Wang, Qian State University of New York at Buffalo, USA
Wang, Richard Cornell University, USA
Wang, Xuan Nevada Department of Transportation, USA
Wang, Xuesong Tongji University, China
Wang, Xun Cornell University, USA
Wang, Zhong Seattle Department of Transportation, USA
Wang, Zhongren California Department of Transportation, USA
Wei, Heng University of Cincinnati, USA
Wen, Haifang Washington State University, USA
Wu, Chung Virginia Department of Transportation, USA
Wu, Di University of Florida, USA
Wu, Jingcheng TransCore ITS, LLC., USA
Wu, Ning Ruhr University Bochum, Germany
Wu, Shin IES Consultants, USA
Wu, Yaojan University of Washington, USA
Wu, Zhaozhang Tsinghua University, China
Associate Editors Affiliation
Xiao, Feipeng Clemson University, China
Xie, Chi University of Texas at Austin, USA
Xie, Yuanchang South Carolina State University, USA
Xiong, Hui Beijing Institute of Technology, China
Kunming University of Science and Technology,
Xiong, Jian
China
Xu, Ming Tsinghua University, China
Yang, Bian Beijing University of Technology, China
Yang, Jun Tsinghua University, China
Yang, Saini Beijing Normal University, China
Yang, Shunxin Southeast University, China
Yang, Xinmiao Tsinghua University, China
Yang, Zheng Tongji University, China
Yao, Zhuo University of Cincinnati, USA
Ye, Xin University of Maryland, USA
Yin, Derek EBA Ltd., Canada
You, Zhanping Michigan Technological University, USA
Yu, Lei Texas Southern University, USA
Yu, Runze University of Washington, USA
Yu, Xinbao Louisianan Transportation Research Center, USA
Yu, Xiong (Bill) Case Western Reserve University, USA
Zeng, Bo University of South Florida, USA
Zhang, Chonghou Tsinghua University, China
Zhang, Guohui University of Texas at Austin, USA
Zhang, Lei University of Maryland, USA
Zhang, Lihui University of Florida, USA
Zhang, Lin Cambridge Systematics Inc., USA
Zhang, Yu University of South Florida, USA
Zhang, Yunlong Texas AM University, USA
Zhang, Zhiqing Beijing University of Technology, China
Zheng, Jianyang Maryland State Highway Administration, USA
Zhong, Ming University of New Brunswick, Canada
Zhou, Huaguo Southern Illinois University, USA
 English Editors
English Editors Affiliation
Ball, Patricia University of South Florida, USA
Buckingham,Christopher Cornell University, USA
Cabale, Edward California State Polytechnic University at Pomona,
USA
Chi, Henry California State Polytechnic University at Pomona,
USA
Clinton, Carol University of Cincinnati, USA
Colbert, Baron W Michigan Technological University, USA
DeDene, Chris Michigan Technological University, USA
Ellison, Hilary University of Cincinnati, USA
Goh, Shu Wei Michigan Technological University, USA
Grosz, Lynn California State Polytechnic University at Pomona,
USA
Hoskins, Urraena University of Cincinnati, USA
Kathryn, Bunthoff, University of Cincinnati, USA
Klosterman, Stephen University of Cincinnati, USA
Kolakaluri, Bhavna Cornell University, USA
Kukreti, Rohit University of Chicago, USA
Leab, Amber University of Cincinnati, USA
Liu, Yu Michigan Technological University, USA
Marquez, Erika University of Nevada, Reno, USA
Marshall, Keri University of Cincinnati, USA
Melam, Madhu Chandra University of Cincinnati, USA
Mills-Beale, Julian Michigan Technological University, USA
Oberlin, Kevin University of Cincinnati, USA
O'Neill, Elizabeth Michigan Technological University, USA
Singleton, Meredith University of Cincinnati, USA
Sinha, Madhudaya University of Cincinnati, USA
Wang, Hainian Michigan Technological University, USA
Wang, Susan Bentley Systems Inc., USA
Wothge, Joerdis University of Hamburg, Germany
Zhang, Qian Michigan Technological University, USA
 Acknowledgments

Credit for the quality of the proceedings of ICCTP 2010 goes first and foremost to the
authors. They contributed a great deal of effort through their active responses to the
call for abstracts and paper submission. They have been very cooperative with the
editors during the English editing period. All of the authors who submitted abstract
and then full papers, both accepted and rejected, are great contributors for keeping
ICCTP vital.
Gratitude and credit also goes to all the area paper reviews and English editing
chairs, and all associate editors and English editors, as listed previously. They
donated plenty of their valuable times and efforts with busy schedules to carefully
review about 890 abstracts and 560 papers, and then English edit the 444 accepted
papers. Each area chair has done a decent, superb job in organizing the review and
English editing work. All the area chairs were chosen for their leadership in their
fields, their reputation for honesty and good judgment, their capacity to enjoy and
appreciate other people's work, and their enthusiasm to involve in the NACOTA’s
activities.
BJUT is kindly hosting the ICCTP 2010 conference and has offered numerous
supports to ensure this successful conference. The hard work from BJUT faculty,
staff, and students highly deserve compliment. In particular, the BJUT team under the
leadership of Drs. Jian Rong and Jiancheng Weng is very cooperative with NACOTA
in building the online paper review system and English editing work, and they have
invested enormous time and energy in organizing all activities that are needed for the
conference. Also, we are appreciative of Professor Xiaoming Liu, Director of Beijing
Municipal Commission of Transport for his great support, which is an important
factor in solving several key issues we encountered during the organization process.
Special thanks go to the members of NACOTA, Board of Directors, and
Advisory Committee for their consistent support. Dr. Heng Wei, Chair of ICCTP
2010 Organizing and Executive Committee, took great leaderships in a full range of
organizing and coordinating perspectives, including inviting prestigious keynote
speakers; NACOTA Academic Affairs Committee, under the leadership of Dr.
Yafeng Yin, has done an outstanding collaboration with BJUT in organizing plenary
and other important special sessions, as well as development of the agenda for the
conference. Dr. Yinhai Wang, current president of NACOTA and Dr. Ping Yi,
immediate past president of NACOTA, have offered timely advice and much support
in coordinating the organization and sponsorship for various associated activities.
Finally, the contribution of Dr. Fang (Clara) Fang is recognized for her great effort in
handling the financial duties throughout the entire process for NACOTA.
The T&DI of ASCE and TRB ABE90 Committee strongly sponsored the
ICCTP 2010 by disseminating conference information and providing speakers for
special sessions. Special appreciation also goes to Ms. Donna Dickert and Mr.
Jonathan C. Esslinger for their hard work to publish the proceedings.
 Table of Contents
Comprehensive Transportation Planning
Study of Travel Transfer Mode of Shuttle Bus Based on ML Model 1
Yan Han, Hongzheng Zhao, and Hongzhi Guan

Air-Rail Inter-Modality Interpretation and Service Pattern in Yangtze Delta Area 9

Yali Zhao and Cancan Qin

The Object-Oriented Methodology of Traffic Microscope Simulation System for 17

Generating Vehicles from OD Matrix
Peng Jing, Zhicai Juan, and Xuxun Lin

Study Coordinating Development of Railway Station and the Land Use— 30

Discussion about P&R and TOD
Shuai Dai, Huapu Lu, and Ming Luo

Finding the Connectivity Bottlenecks in Shanghai Road Network Based on 38

Betweenness
Yuan Xue, Wei Sun, and Xiang He

Subway Station Selection Model Based on Utility Combined Analysis 49

Liya Yao, Lishan Sun, and Wuhong Wang

Transportation Informationization of Enterprise’s Rail Leased Lines 57

Nan Cheng, Huapu Lu, Yijian Tang, Shuai Dai, and Xinxin Yu

Research of New Urban Area Design on the Basis of TOD Mode—A Case Study 64
of Bin Hu New District in Hefei City
Dazhi Gu and Ping Yan

Urban Land Structure Planning Model Based on Green Transportation System 76

Principal
Zhe Kong, XiuCheng Guo, and Jia Hou

A Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Aircraft Selection for Commuter 87

Airlines Based on IEDEA Model
Qing Liu and Tongshui Wu

An Urban Traffic Assignment Method Considering Signal Delays at 96

Intersections
Ying Zeng, Yingying Ma, Yu Bai, and Xiaoguang Yang

A Traffic Efficiency-Based Optimization Model for Land Use around High 106
Speed Railway Station
Jie Zhang, Huapu Lu, and Yue Li
 A Bi-Level Programming Model for Origin-Destination Estimation Based on 117
FCD
Yanni Yang, Hua-pu Lu, and Qizhou Hu

A Multiple Attributive Decision–Making Method for the Number of Lanes 125

Based on Delay Cost
Hua Bai, Jun Chen, and Zhiquan Xie

The Accessibility of Inter-City Railway Station Based on Travel Mode 132

Ming Lu

An Analysis for the Departure Delays in QingDao Aerodrome 140

Nan Li, Zhiqiang Liu, and Xiaohao Xu

Transferring Characteristic of Urban Rail Stations based on Stations 145

Functional Orientation
Lijun Chen and Xuewu Chen

Applications, Issues, and Lessons of Emme ODME Procedure for Highway 155
Design Projects and City General Plans
Jiahao Wu, Bing Song, Yuanqiu Bao, and JiaLe Wu

Evaluation of Regional Integrative Transportation System with Equity and 171

Efficiency
Jing Shi and Zhaozhang Wu

A Contrastive Study on Sustainable Development of Maglev and High-Speed 182

Wheel-Rail
Chao Wang and Gang Zong

Spatio-Temporal Analysis for Improving Constructability of Transportation 189

Projects
Yuanbin Song, David K. H. Chua, and Hao Hu

A Study of Transportation Planning Adjacent to High-Speed Railway Station 201

Case Study: Huhang-Songjiang High-Speed Railway Station
Guixiu Shen and Chaoyang Li

Mode Split Model under Different Public Transit Fare 212

Zhongwei Yang, Liya Yao, and Weipo Yan

Traffic Safety Theory and Technology

Research on Evaluation Method in Dangerous Goods Transportation Via 218
Railway
Mourui Fang and Xiaoqin Jie

Evaluation of Work Zone Speed Reduction Measures 226

Liande Zhong and Dezao Hou
Identification of Abnormal Traffic State and Cause Analysis in Mountainous 234
Highways
Xiru Tang and Yanyan Chen

Reliability Study of the Results of the Safety Comprehensive Evaluation 244

Hangjun Gong and Baichuan Li

Effects of Drinking on Driving Performance 253

Jushang Ou, Xiaohua Zhao, Kejun Mao, Jin Zhao, and Jian Rong

The Effects of Countdown Signal on Driver Behavior at Intersection in a City 262

Jie Zhang, Yulong He, and Xiaoduan Sun

Road Safety Evaluation Based on Vague Set Theory 269

Yongping Wei and Jianxiao Ma

Safety Prediction Models of Freeway in Plain Terrain 279

Jie Zhang, Xiaoduan Sun, and Yulong He

The Emergency Decision Support Platform of Urban Rail Transit Based on 287
Information Sharing and Digitalized Plan
Ming Zhang, Ping Li, and Fuzhang Wang

Statistical Simulation for Modeling Crash Count Data 295

Perla E. Reyes and Xiao Qin

The Impact Analysis of the Urban Highway Traffic Incidents on FCD 303
Rui Sun, Jing Liu, Jianping Sun, and Jizheng Guan

A Review of Prediction Models on Operating Speed for Highways 315

Tao Chen and Lang Wei

Research on Relationships between a Driver’s Traffic Safety Consciousnesses 324

and Occurrence of Traffic Accidents in Rural Areas of China
Li-Zeng Mao, Yu Meng, Liren Duan, Enrong Mao, and Jiangang Gao

Effects of Speed Management Facilities and Suggestions 330

Xiaoming Zhong, Jian Zhang, Yuanyuan Wang, and Jia Jia

Dynamic Response Characteristics of Joint between Working Shaft and 343

Tunnel under Train Vibration Loads
Haibing Cai, Limin Peng, and Juan Huang

Study on the Relationship between Speed Difference and Crash Rate on 354
Freeway
Dianjian Hou, Jixiang Han, Xiaoduan Sun, and Yulong He

Research on Defining the Geometry Index for Safe Driving at the Curving and 360
Sloping Sections for Freeway
Ke Zheng and Jian Rong
ISM Model of Factors Influencing Traffic Safety at Expressway Work Zone 369
Biao Wu, Hongguo Xu, and Wenhui Zhang

Research on the Length of Left-Turn Lane by Field Observation 379

Hongqi Liu, Fang Wang, Tao Shen, and Weihan Zhang

The Development of PARAMICS Based Metropolitan Emergency Evacuation 388

Transportation Simulation System—MEETSIM
Fei Song, Xiao-kuan Yang, and Lei Du

Sound as a Countermeasure against Driving Fatigue Based on ECG 401

Xiaohua Zhao, Ruixue Fang, Shili Xu, Jian Rong, and Xiaoming Liu

Speed Transition Zone Design Based on Driving Simulator Research 414

Ting Xu, Xiaoduan Sun, Weili Wang, and Yulong He

Effectiveness of Rumble Strips on Freeways 425

Yang Yang, Xiaoduan Sun, and Yulong He

Enforcement Cost Analysis under the Conditions of Speed Limit 434

Sisi Liu, Xiaoduan Sun, and Yulong He

Research on Allocation of the Driver’s Attention on the Tunnel Sections of a 444

Mountain Freeway
Cao He, Bin Chen, Jinbao Wang, and Yanni Shi

Research on Desired Speed under Speed Limit on Ordinary Highway 453

Xuan Du, Jian Lu, Dandan Tan, and Gang Wu

Identification of Traffic Accident Prone Location Based on Vehicle Speed 466

Variability Indices
Pingfan Li, Dianhai Wang, Changjun Wang, and Dongbo Liu

Research on Safety Analysis and Countermeasures on Qinghai-Tibet Highway 478

Jian Tian, Jiding Chen, and Jianfeng Xi

Impact of Macrotexture Depth and Its Variation on Safety on Rainy Days 484
Haiying Li, Boming Tang, Dong Shao, Ming Li, and Jianping Gao

Optimizing Design of Urban Intersection using Reliability Analysis 496

Zhiqiang Liu, Hongmao Qin, Li Zhang, Peng Wang, and Shiliang Song

Technology Research on Accident Prevention on Black Spots Based on 506

Dynamic Traffic Flow Monitoring
Jianping Gao, Lingqi Li, Dong Shao, Zhuo Zhang, and Xuejia Chen

Road Environment Monotony Evaluation Based on MPEG Compression 518

Technique
Kejun Mao, Xiaohua Zhao, Jian Rong, Linjia Su, and Guan Wei

Algorithms for Optimal Driving Speed on the Mainline of a Freeway 528

 Dashan Chen, Keping Li, and Jian Sun

Freeway Traffic Incident Delay Analysis Based on Toll Data 535

Hongbin Zhang, Shunxin Yang, Fujian Ni, and Baiqiang Liu

Optimization Modeling of Superelevation Rates Based on Operation Speed 548

Qinghong Huang and Hongjing Fan

Operating Left-Turn Phase at Signalized Intersection Based on Traffic Conflict 556

Technique
Feng Sun

Cause Analysis of At-Grade Intersection Accidents and Grading Improvement 565

Methods Research of Highways in Plain Area
Yu Chen

A Technique for Escape Ramp Location Determination in China’s Mountain 573

Area Expressway
Jian Zhou, Qingxia Liu, Hua Chai, and Ronggui Zhou

Vehicle’s Shock Absorbing Capacity and Roadway Rumble Strips 585

Shuzhan Hou, Xiaoduan Sun, Yulong He, and Junlei Wang

Improvement of Rate Quality Control Method in Identifying Hazardous 591

Locations
Jinyan Lu and Jiancheng Weng

Calibration and Validation Procedure for Intersection Safety Simulation using 603
SSAM and VISSIM
Si’en Zhou, Keping Li, Jian Sun, and Pingchao Han

Research on Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Mountainous Freeways 616

Weibin Li, Xiaoduan Sun, and Yulong He

Geometric Design Parameters Research of Two-Lane Highway in Mountainous 624

Terrain Based on Drivers’ Anticipation
Jing Fang, Ronggui Zhou, Hua Chai, and Jiangang Qiao

Threshold of Natural Ritical Wind Velocity for Driving Safety in Pastoral Area 632
Peng Hu, Xiaodong Pan, and Zhen Yang

A Forward Collision Warning Algorithm Based on Driver Characteristics 640

Ruijuan Chi, Jianqiang Wang, Furui Yang, and Lei Zhang

Simulation on Fluctuant Effect of Automobile Brake Line Based on AMESim 653

Xianbin Wang, Hongxing Deng, Wenhui Zhang, and Shiyu Tian

Driving State Recognizing Based on Driving Behavior Signals 659

Dunli Hu, Pan Yang, Zhichun Mu, and Xiaohua Zhao

669
A Research on the Traffic Safety Characteristics of Two-Lane Highway in China’s
Mountain Area
Tiejun Zhang, Chengcheng Tang, and Yong He

Long and Big Tunnel Fire Smoke Barrier Water Curtain 678
Shuqing Hao

A Security Analysis and Accident Prevention Measure 685

Shenquan Liu, Yingying Wen, Xiao Li, and Jiangang Qiao

Numerical Simulation Analysis and Monitoring of Ground Surface Subsidence 691

in Shallow Tunnels by Excavation
Xinzheng Wang and Liying Xing

Analysis and Application About Connection Stiffness between Elements with 702
Different DOF’s in FE Simulation
Tao Zhu, Shoune Xiao, and Guangwu Yang

The Electronic Control System of the Second-Generation CST Vehicle Collision 710
Energy Absorption System
Zhengbao Lei, Sujuan Wang, and Xiaoyuan Zhang

Analysis of Track Irregularity Spectrum of Beijing-Guangzhou Railway 722

Z.w. Li, S. I. Lian, and W.z. Yang

Cause and Modification Measures of Longitudinal Cracks from Bolt Hole of the 731
PC Sleepers II
Chao Ma, Xiangguo Li, and Jinging Bu

Research on Traffic Organization of Freeway Off Ramp-Crossroad Terminal 738

Shengxue Zhu, Jian Lu, and Haijuan Zhao

A Study of Design on Precision Parking Guidance and Information System 747

Guozhong Yao, Jianqun Wang, Xuejun Ran, and Zhanshan Li

Study of Analysis of Traffic Accidents and Driving Safety at Junction Sections 757
of Bridge and Tunnel on Expressways in Mountainous Areas
Jianyou Zhao, Yanni Shi, Chang Liu, and Cao He

Research on Crossroad Access Design Technology in the Functional Area of 765

Urban Interchanges in China
Xi Zhuo, Zhendong Qian, and Ning Zhang

Safety Evaluation of Highway in Mountainous Area Based on Fuzzy Neural 777

Network
Xiufeng Chen, Hongguo Xu, and Guili Liu

Building Dangerous State Recognition Platform of Commercial Vehicle’s 784

Brake System by Using Multi-Sensor Technology
Zhifa Yang, Shiwu Li, Yunpeng Wang, Hailin Kui, and Weiyuan Sun
The Influence of the Number of Road Names on Guide Signs on Drivers’ 790
Recognition
Y. Lin and X. Pan

Setting All-Red Clearance Interval Based on Traffic Conflict Technique at 799

Signalized Intersection
Yuan Li, Zhenzhong Huang, and Hewei Yuan

Forecast of Traffic Safety Based on Fuzzy Generalized Neural Network 805

Sha Zhou, Gongliang Jiang, and Yong Huang

Research on Relationship between Operating Speed and Posted Speed Limit 816
for Mountainous Freeway
Lijin Wang, Yulong He, and Shaofei Wang

Study on the Effects of Speed Camera 824

Feng Lu and Zuohong Cheng

Operation Environment Description Model Based on Alignment 832

Comprehensive Index of Highway
Ying Yan, Yan Ma, and Yuhui Zhang

Experimental Research of Relationship between Pedestrian Stopping Distance 839

and Walking Speed to Avoid Pedestrian Crowd Stampede Accident
Yuanyuan Zhang, Xiaohong Chen, and Na Li

Generalized Visibility of Freeway in Adverse Weather Conditions 851

Shougang Huang, Huili Zhang, Shaofang Wen, and Haining Liu

Analysis and Application of the Tire Blowout Model Based on Fault Tree 858
Shiwu Li, Jingjing Tian, Jinghai Zhang, and Zhifa Yang

A Model for Assessment Collision Risk Degree of Ships in Sight of Another 867
Yunming Qiu, Wencai Chen, Wei Wang, and Gan Zhang

Safety Evaluation of Bridge-Tunnel Sections on Mountainous Expressway 875

Based on Bayesian Network
Yujia Tian, Hong Chen, Baixiu Liu, and Dianliang Xiao

A Simulation-Based Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model for Emergency 883

Management on the Hangzhou Bay Bridge
Shu Han, Shouen Fang, Xuesong Wang, Xiaohong Chen, and Yiyi Cai

Crash Injury Severity Analysis at Signalized Intersections: Modeling 896

Techniques and Significant Factors
Xuesong Wang, Yu Jin, and Haihao Sun

Analysis of the Safety Influence Area for Four-Legged Signalized 903

Intersections
Xuesong Wang, Xiaohong Chen, and Haihao Sun
The Simulative Value Analysis of the Effect of Vehicle Collision Speed on the 914
Safety
Guirong Zhang, Houyu Li, and Suyuan Liu

Application of Risk Acceptance Criteria in Developing Maritime Safety 923

Standards
Junzhong Bao, Shuang Zhang, and ZhengJiang Liu

The Impact of the Accesses on the Operating Speed of Two-Lane Highways 935
Zhandong Zhu and Jian Rong

A Study on the Operating Speed Model of Passenger Cars on Long Tangent 943
Expressway Sections
Yulong He, Hui Tang, Xiaoduan Sun, and Ming Zhao

Driving Simulation Study on Operating Speed of Hangzhou Bay Bridge 950

Benmin Liu, Zhongyin Guo, and Mingshan Fang

Operating Speed Prediction Model Based on Highway Alignment Spacial 961

Geometric Properties
Zhongyin Guo, Xiaohuan Zhou, Yin Yan, Qiang Zhang, and Yue Chen

Evaluation Index and Methods of Highway Intersection Safety Maintenance 971

Shengxue Zhu and Jian Lu

The Simulated Replay and Automatic Analysis of Vessels Collision 977

Meilong Le and Youfang Huang

Critical Issues and Countermeasures for Expressway Safety Improvement 986

Guangming Ding and Zhongren Wang

Applying Safety Analyst (SA) on Highway Safety Improvement—A Case Study 999
on I-275 Corridor
Jian John Lu and Hongyun Chen

What Can Be Learned from US Road Safety Practice: A Research 1012

Perspective
Helai Huang and Ming Ma

Bayesian Modeling of Frequency-Severity Indeterminacy with an Application 1022

to Traffic Crashes on Two-Lane Highways
Jianming Ma and Zheng Li

Development of a Safety Performance Function for Signalized Diamond 1034

Interchange Ramp Terminals
Heng Wang, Xiao Qin, and David Noyce

How to Select the Appropriate Safety Measurement to Identify a Hotspot 1047

Wen Cheng, Xuesong Wang, and Kekoa Anderson

Modeling Injury Severity in Work Zones using Ordered PROBIT Regression 1058
 Zhenyu Wang, Jian J. Lu, Qing Wang, Linjun Lu, and Zhao Zhang

Rumble Strip Design Based on Jerk Intensity 1068

Chiu Liu and Zhongren Wang

Development of Models to Predict Conflict Rates at Unsignalized 1075

Intersections
Jian Lu and Shengxue Zhu

A New Way of Transportation Modeling—“Cloud Computing” Based Internet 1086

Solution for Transportation Modeling
Minhua Wang

Transportation Management, Operation Technology and

Systems
Calculation of Long Range Cruise Performance Based on the BADA Model 1097
Zhi-qiang Wei, Chao Wang, and Fei Liu

The Evaluation of the Road Network Reliability under the Rainfall Weather 1104
Xiru Tang and Yanyan Chen

A Departure Frequency Model for Double-Line BRT with Genetic Algorithm 1114
Han Bai, Zheng-hao Xia, Yang-dong Zhao, and Kai-liang Song

Railway Station Multi-Objective Design Based on Management Perspective 1122

Yu Zhang and Hui-hui Sun

Applying Safety Audit Concept in the Pre-Opening and Trial Operation Stage 1132
of a Freeway Project
Xiao-ming Zhong, Jia Jia, Jian Zhang, and Yuan-yuan Wang

Forecasting Freight Volume Based on an Entropy Combination Method 1143

Xiao-feng Liu, Daniel (Jian) Sun, Rong-yi Du, and Zhong-ren Peng

A Signal Control Strategy for Right-Turning Vehicles Based on the 1149

Conglomeration
Quan Yu, Jin-guang Liu, Jian Rong, and Xiao-ming Liu

The Development and Cooperative-Competitive Relationships of Support 1155

Service Systems among Global Shipping Hubs
Minhui Guo, R. Barry McComic, Cunqiang Cai, and Chengzhi Ding

Revisiting Delay Model of Signalized Intersections 1165

Ling-jie Li, Xiao-kuan Yang, and Xin-yue Chen

Traffic Connection and Operation of Urban Intersection Connected with Off- 1174
Ramps
Jianming Ding and Huajing Ning
An Equilibrium-Right-of-Way-Based Capacity at Signalized Intersections 1181
Wanchao Zhang, Huan Cheng, and Xiaokuan Yang

Capacity of Right Turn Movement under Pedestrian’s and Bicycle’s Mutual 1190
Influence at Signalized Intersections
Wan-chao Zhang, Yang Wang, and Xiao-kuan Yang

Aircraft’s Assignment on Multi-Runway Airport Based on PSO 1201

Jie-ning Wang, Zhi-juan Yuan, Jian-kang Dong, and Yong-xin Liu

Locations of Bus Stops at the Upstream of Signalized Intersection Based on 1210

the Model of Efficiency
Xue-wu Chen, Xian-yao Hou, and Jia-jun Shen

Comprehensive Transportation Information Platform-Based CORBA 1218

Framework and XML Data Exchange Technology
Qin Ming and Shi Lei

Evaluation Methods of Pedestrian Facilities around the Beijing Olympic 1226

Venues Area
Yong-yan Wu, Zhong-hua Wei, Jian Rong, and Xiao-ming Liu

A Signal Timing Method for Bicycles at Vehicle-Bicycle Mixed Intersections 1237

Chun-yan Liang and Tian-jun Feng

Evaluation of Expressway Service Systems Based on the Matter Element 1245

Extension Model
Xiaowei Li, Hong Chen, Meng Xue, and Yongna Liu

Development of a Road Weather Information System for Mountain 1254

Expressways
Jianping Gao, Boming Tang, Haiying Li, Min Liu, and Chuandong Gao

System Analysis and Model Design of Highway Passenger Transport Hub 1265
Zhi-qing Zhang, Yan Jia, Yun-tong Liu, Xiao-ming Wang, Pei-cai Wang, and Jing-mei Wang

Effects of First Class Highway Roadside Interference on Operating Speed 1275

Ronggui Zhou, Bing Li, and Hua Chai

A Simulation Optimization System of Signalized Intersections Based on 1281

Knowledge
Meiling Li, Jian Rong, Zhenhua Mou, and Jin Ran

Strategy Cost—How Does Organization Structure Drive the Cost of Urban 1292
Railway Transportation?
Yuhong Hua and Weihua Wang

An Empirical Study of the Urban Traffic Accident Causes with 1299

Correspondence Analysis Method
Chunlu Peng, Jian Lu, and Weihao Yin
An Optimal Timing Model for Signalized Roundabout Intersections 1307
Yuntao Chang, Yu Bai, and Daniel (Jian) Sun

Comparative Study of Channelization Designs for Intersection Widening 1318

Transition Zones
Jian Rong, Meng-jia Wang, Ming Gong, and Jian-ming Ma

An Automatic Phase and Sequence Design Method for Isolated Intersections 1329
Yuhua Zhao and Zhaocheng He

Division and Integration of Traffic Control Sub-Zones Based on 1342

Distance+Cycle Rule
Hui Bing Li, Zhaosheng Yang, and Xiaoguang Yang

Evaluation of Freeway Incident Management Based on Toll Station Data in 1350

China
Ding He, Fu-jian Ni, and Shun-xin Yang

Air-Rail Links and the Possible Use in Xi’an Xianyang International Airport 1362
Chen Wu, Lin Cheng, and Jie Ouyang

An Operation Condition Evaluation Method of Rural Freeways during 1371

Holidays
Yan Wang, Hai-ying Zhu, Zhe-liang Xu, and Lin Li

Multi-State Flow Inductive Control Method at Intersections with Multi- 1377

Function Entrance MFE Lanes
Heng Ding, Xiaoyan Zheng, Xiao Ma, and Wuwei Chen

Air Traffic Capacity of FVSM Area Based on Heuristic Algorithm 1384

Huaqun Chen and Weijun Pan

Optimization of Car-Parking Guidance Signs for Areas with Urban Transport 1391
Hubs
Yuchuan Du, Yubo Liu, Xiaopeng Zhou, and Lijun Sun

A Statistical Analysis of Pedestrian Speed on Signalized Intersection 1401

Crosswalk
Canbin Huang and Wanjing Ma

Intersection Signal Timing Method Based on the Optimization of Average 1408

People Delay
Xu Qu, Jun Chen, and Wenfu Wang

Expressway Work Zone Life Cycle User Costs Model 1415

Jingwei Yu, Xiaoming Huang, and Gongyun Liao

Parameter Calibration of VISSIM Simulation Model Based on the Orthogonal 1421

Experiment
Yongzheng Kang, Man Zhai, Huili Zhang, and Changchun Zhang
An Empirical Study on the Arrangement of Truck Ownership in Trucking 1428
Enterprises
Honglei Ge

Traffic Volume Forecasting under Snow Disasters in the Heilongjiang 1435

Freeway System
Xiaodong Zang and Xing Zhang

Infinity-Case Based on Train Carried ATP Testing System 1442

Yufeng Guo, Yongqiang Zhang, and Zhiqiang Zhang

Track Integration Quality Index 1448

Shougang Huang, Yongzheng Kang, Zhichen Wang, and Dekuan Zhao

Evaluation and Recommendation to the Beijing BRT System 1455

Shuling Wang, Shujun Wang, Fang Wang, and Chunfu Shao

Evaluation Model of Passenger Satisfaction Degree of Service Quality for 1464

Urban Rail Transit
Lei Sa

An Improved Model for Signalized Intersections 1474

Yuyang Zhao, Yuqin Feng, and Zhongliang Yang

Ontology-Based Air Traffic Management (ATM) Systems 1481

Nan Li, Leilei Zhang, and Xiaohao Xu

Countermeasures of Integrated Transportation System in Asia 1489

Caixia Xie

Reinforcement Learning On-Ramp Metering with or without Complete 1498

Information
Xingju Wang, Guifeng Gao, Shaofang Wen, and Toshihiko Miyagi

A Multi-Objective Optimization Model and a Decision-Making Method for 1507

Traffic Signal Control
Weiliang Zeng, Zhaocheng He, and Ningning Chen

Selection of Rail Types for High-Speed Railway and Heavy-Haul Railway 1518
Wang Jianxi Wang, Xiangguo Li, and Shougang Huang

A Berth Scheduling Problem under Sailing Schedule Disruption 1529

Chunxia Yang, Nuo Wang, and Bing Zhao

Integration of Rail Systems within a Metropolis: A Case Study of Wuxi City 1537
Xuesong Zhang, Dawei Bian, and Min Chen

Rational Division and Transport Organization Coordination of Passenger- 1543

Dedicated Lines and Relevant Existing Lines
Jingdong Sun, Shunli Wang, and Yibin Zhang
Relationship between Transportation and Economy Development 1552
Yuezhen Han, Ge Gao, and Yuguo Qiu

The Reasoning Process of Qualitative Reasoning Model of Pedestrian 1560

Disturbing Delay
Minmin Zhang, Dalin Qian, Xiaohong Chen, and Xiaoxiao Wang

Traffic Status Classification for Highways Based on FCM Algorithm 1569

Chuyun Niu, Hailin Zhang, and Hao Liu

Nonlinear Pricing of Transportation Based on Consumer Heterogeneity for 1579

Passenger-Dedicated Lines
Chao Zhang and Gang Zong

A Bi-Criterion Multi-User Class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Model and 1588

Solution Algorithm for Evaluating Road Pricing Strategies
Lan Jiang and Jianying Wang

Method and Strategy for Parallelizing Microscopic Traffic Simulation 1600

Anning Ni, Zhicai Juan, and Jiaoni Yang

Comparison of Current Practical Adaptive Traffic Control Systems 1611

Hongyun Chen and Jian John Lu

A Pitfall to Avoid When Issuing Transit Signal Priority Treatments under 1620
Coordinated Control Strategies
Xiaolei Ma, Guohui Zhang, Jonathan Corey, and Yinhai Wang

How to Identify Hazardous Locations in Roadway Network 1632

Wen Cheng, Xuesong Wang, and Kekoa Anderson

Impact of Safe Routes to School on Student Travel Mode Shifting: Based on 1645
the Before and After Period Survey
Jiguang Zhao, Huaguo Zhou, Jing Huang, and Peter Hsu

Sight Distance Issues of the Retrofitted HOV Lanes and Countermeasures 1657
Zhongren Wang

Revamping of the Caltrans Traffic Operations Academy 1667

Zhongren Wang, Jacqui Ghezzi, Adam Fong, Diana Gomez, and Carol Wilbon

Characteristics of Operating Speed for Proper Speed Limit 1678

Xiaoduan Sun, Yulong He, Shuangjie Wang, and Yiyi Wang

An Integrated Design for Lane Allocation and Signal Optimization at 1690

Signalized Intersections
Wenteng Ma
Traffic Flow and Transportation Network Theory
Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Segmentation Model 1702
Huisheng Wu, Zhaoli Liu, and Shuwen Zhang

Super-Network Based Equilibrium Model and Algorithm for Multi-Mode 1709

Urban Transport System
Bingfeng Si, Ming Zhong, and Ziyou Gao

Impacts of a High-Speed Passenger Railway on a Regional Transport System 1721

Ying Li, Shanhua Wu, and Zhongzhen Yang

Real Option Analysis on Investment Decision-Making of Rail Transit Projects 1731

Aiming to Ease Congestion
Yongling Gao

Planning a Backbone Road Network in Scenic Areas Using the Importance 1742
Method
Chun-peng Han and Pei-feng Cheng

Study on the Impedance Function Model of the City Road: The Case of 1751
Ningbo, China
Yu Chen, Yong-ping Zhang, and Zhong-kun He

Phase Clearance Reliability of Signalized Intersections 1760

Bin Lv and Huimin Niu

A Regression Model of Distance Headway in Car-Following Behavior in an 1766

Acceleration and Deceleration Regime
Zhi-yong Zhang and Yi Huang

Calibration of Acceleration-Based and Multi-Anticipative Car-Following 1773

Models by NGSIM Trajectory Data
Li Jun Sun, Xi Qun Chen, Wei Jun Xie, and Xinmiao Yang

Reliable Optimal Path for Pedestrian Navigation 1785

Jianghua Zheng, Wei Dai, Zhiqun Sun, and Yang Zhang

Research on Location Method of Vehicle Construction Project Access in 1797

Urban Areas
Yuan Zhong, Zhiyong Zhang, Jian Rong, and Jingjing Wang

Study of Urban Resident Travel Mode Choice Behavior 1807

Huanhuan Yin, Hongzhi Guan, Tong Liu, Liyuan Gong, and Juan Li

Analysis of Influences Area on Freeway Traffic Accidents 1816

Jianjun Wang, Ying Shen, Ping Liu, Long Mao, and Yunqing Xu

Analysis of Vehicle Running Speed and Its Influencing Factors on Urban 1827
Major Streets
 Zi-lei Wang, Chang-qiao Shao, and Jian Rong

Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Genetic BP Neural Network 1835

Yuanlin Liu, Wusheng Hu, Shujie Xin, and Li Li

Impact of Lane Width on Vehicle Speed of Urban Arterials 1844

Yingying Ma, Ying Zeng, and Xiaoguang Yang

Study on Urban Expressway Work Zone Capacity 1853

Chang-qiao Shao and Ya Chen

The Research Based on Running Speed Model of Perennial Permafrost Area 1864
Road
Junshan Qiao, Min Song, Dangyun Shen, and Jiangang Qiao

Traffic Flow Capacity Model for Urban Expressways 1871

Yue Li, Huapu Lu, Jie Zhang, Xinxin Yu, and Nan Cheng

Study on the Floating-Car Data Pretreatment Approach 1877

Zhenjun Wang, Guangsheng Jiang, Jing Liu, and Jizhen Guan

Algorithm and Application of Traffic Flow Characteristics Coordinated 1889

Analysis for On-Ramp and Adjacent Intersections
Li-xia Bao, Xiang Gao, and Xiao-xiao Xu

Study on the Speed-Flow Model of Arterial Roads in Beijing 1898

Xin Li, Huapu Lu, Xiaoli Zhang, and Jie Zhang

Study of Alternative Interchange Horizontal Alignments Optimizing Model 1907

Based on Genetic Algorithm
Yan-Liang Shang, Xiang-Guo Li, and Xiao-Yong Yan

Congestion-Related Analysis and Identification of Urban Road Based on 1914

VISSIM
Xiang Gao, Li-xia Bao, and Guiyan Jiang

Traffic Conflict Models on Shared-Use Paths Used by Pedestrians, Cyclists, 1925

and Electric Bicycle Riders
Jun Chen, Zhiquan Xie, and Changli Qian

Hierarchical Properties of Transportation Networks 1932

Qi Liu and Chao Yang

Operational Aspects of Exclusive Double Left-Turn Lanes at Signalized 1940

Intersections
Jie Zhou, Chang-qiao Shao, and Jian Rong

Exploration of Car-Following Model in Emergency Evacuation Situations 1952

Zhi Xu, Hongzhi Guan, Xiaokuan Yang, Xiaohua Zhao, and Lingjie Li

ACF Procedure for TWSC Intersections—Extensions and Modifications 1963

 Ning Wu

The α-Reliable Mean-Excess Path Finding Model in Stochastic Networks 1973

Zhong Zhou, Anthony Chen, and Matthew Martimo

Identifying Characteristics of Freeway Traffic Headway by Vehicle Types 1984

Using Video Trajectory Data
Qingyi Ai, Zhuo Yao, Heng Wei, and Zhixia Li

A Travel Time Estimation Method for Planning Models Considering 1993

Signalized Intersections
Chenxi Lu, Fang Zhao, and Mohammed Hadi

Traffic Simulation Study of Lead Vehicle Behavior 2001

F. Clara Fang

Intelligent Transportation Systems and Technology

Analysis Public Transport Performance Based on IC Data 2013
Yanyan Chen, Shaohui Chen, Changyong Yin, Wentao Liu, Zhihong Chen, and Jingjing Wang

Application of CORS-Based High-Precision Dynamic Positioning System in 2024

Vehicle Management
Yan ping Liu, Yong Wang, Li qiong Qin, Chao Gen, and Xiao gang Hu

A Research on GNSS Reference Station-Based Vehicle Navigation and 2033

Position System
Hongquan Yao, Yong Wang, Yanping Liu, Liqiong Qin, and Chao Gen

Urban Traffic Information System Based on the Integration of GIS and 2041
Mobile Phone Message
Baichuan Lu and Meiling Huang

Video-Based Traffic Monitoring System for Traffic Flow Micro Data Collection 2048
Sen Lin and Min He

Pattern-Based Short-Term Traffic Forecasting under Urban Heterogeneous 2057

Conditions
Jinkui Yang, Liguo Zhang, and Yangzhou Chen

Fuzzy Travel Speed Prediction Based on Gaussian Mixture Models 2065

Yang Wang and Jian Rong

An Improved Routing Protocol Based on Velocity and Direction Classification 2077

in VANET
Fengyuan Guo, Yuliang Yang, Jianwei An, and Mengyu Zhu

Semi-Actuated Signal Algorithm Study for Two-Phase Signalized 2086

Intersections
Peihua Liu, Quan Yu, Jian Rong, Xiaoming Liu, and Jinguang Liu
Driver’s Eyes Detection and Tracking System Using Two Cameras 2098
Lingling Li, Yangzhou Chen, and Le Xin

Optimal Location and Combination of Detectors for Sparse Road Network 2109
Qianyu Liang, Daniel (Jian) Sun, and Yuntao Chang

Unoccupied Parking Space Prediction of Chaotic Time Series 2122

Shixu Liu, Hongzhi Guan, Hai Yan, and Huanhuan Yin

Urban Expressway Incident Detection Algorithm Based on Floating Car Data 2132
Xiaojuan Zhao, Jian-cheng Weng, and Jian Rong

The Application of VISSIM in the Selection of Intersection Signal Control 2140

Plan
Xiaowei Li, Hong Chen, Meng Xue, and Yongna Liu

A Study on Cooperation of Urban Traffic Control and Route Guidance for 2149
Congested Condition
Xiaohua Zhao, Yanzang Shang, and Linglong Tan

Urban Expressway Traffic State Estimation Based on FCM-Rough Set 2159

Xiaoliang Zhang, Ke Zhang, Hao Liu, Jing Li, and Xi Chen

Lane Change Model Based on Drivers’ Characteristic Parameters 2169

E. Tian, Lishan Jia, and Zhifeng Liu

Research on the Traffic Flow Prediction System Framework for ITS Based on 2180
Organic Computing
Fu You, Wang Yu, and Hua Rong

A Two-Phase Mapping Approach of Dynamic Traffic Information Integration 2192

Dongmei Lin and Jun Liu

Estimation of Dynamic Origin-Destination Matrix for an Expressway Network 2202

Jun-wei Li, Hua-pu Lu, Xue-fei Geng, and Xiao-qiang Zhao

Exploring the Impact of Real-Time Travel Information on Drivers’ Route 2214

Choice Using Stated Preference Data
Chengcheng Xu, Wei Wang, Chen Yang, and Zhibin Li

Theory of Organic Combination 2222

Xinsheng Ge, Jiangwei Xue, Jiangzhao Xue, and Jin Li

Design of Long-Range Distribution Traffic Signal Control System Based on 2232

the Wireless Network Technology
Dayi Qu, Xiaojing Zhang, Xiufeng Chen, and Liang Hao

Vehicle Acoustic Signal Signature Recognition Based on Karhunen-Loeve 2239

Transform
Zhenshan Li, Jianqun Wang, Xuejun Ran, and Guozhong Yao
Emergency Rescue System of Shanghai Yangtze River Tunnel-Bridge 2247
Min Chen and Xuesong Zhang

The Impact of the Traveler Information Systems on the Accident Bottleneck 2255
during Peak Period
Lin Zhang, Wen Du, Jun-ji Song, and Qianqian Guo

Link Travel Time Estimation Based on Vehicle Infrastructure Integration 2266

Probe Data
Zhijun Zou, Meng Li, and Fanping Bu

Research on Transportation Problems of Vulnerable Urban Groups Based on 2277

ITS
Jianyou Zhao, Wei Chai, and Xiaojie Sun

Research on Improving TCP Performance over Wireless Network 2287

Communication in Long-Distance Operating Vehicles
Xuan Dong, Wei Zhou, Wen-Liang Li, and Ying-Ji Liu

Design and Realization of Remote Monitoring Platform Software for 2295

Transportation Vehicle with Hazardous Material
Ying-ji Liu, Wei Zhou, Wen-liang Li, and Xuan Dong

The Fatigue Life Study of a Car BIW Based on Random Vibration 2306
Guo-sheng Zhang, Zhen-guo Yi, Wei Wang, Chun-xiao Ren, and Wei Zhou

Analyzing the Possibility of Signal Reception for Space-Based AIS System 2317
Yu-li Chen and He-jun Geng

Study on Urban Public Transport Information Platform Planning 2328

Xiao-kun Wang, Qiu-li Rao, Wei-qiang Chen, Yue-gao Li, and Xin Liu

Study on Road Resistance of Left-Turning Vehicle at Urban Signalized 2340

Intersection
Qiu-ping Wang, Lu Zhang, and Jing Zhang

Influence Analysis of Traffic Demand Management Policy in Beijing Based 2350

on FCD
Jian-Cheng Weng, Xiao-Guang Zhao, Jin-Yan LV, and Meng-Jia Wang

Modeling of Evacuations in Urban Areas in No-Notice Disasters 2362

Hailin Zhang, Shuyun Niu, and Ruihua He

Prediction Model for Urban Expressway Short-Term Traffic Flow Based on 2374
the Support Vector Regression
Chen-lai Rong and Wang-qing Chun

An Evaluation of Obtaining Travel Time Observations via New Technology—A 2380

Case Study in Tianjin
Hao Liu, Li Sang, Ke Zhang, and Yuan Yuan
 A Planning Method for Determining Optimal Parking Space Display of 2389
Parking Guidance Sign Boards
Yanjie Ji, Wei Deng, and Wei Wang

Model and Algorithm of Dynamic Routing Based on Simulation 2397

Lin-jie Gao, Zhi-cai Juan, and An-ning Ni

Traffic Counting Errors Due to Occlusion in Video Image Vehicle Detection 2408
Systems
Pei-feng Hu, Zong-zhong Tian, and Hong-chao Liu

Anacostia Waterfront/Southeast Area, Washington, DC—A Showcase of ITS 2420

Technology Demonstration
Mammen Daniel

An Alternative Arterial Congestion Measurement for ATIS Purposes 2428

Ken Yang, Zhixia Li, and Heng Wei

Enhance Traffic Safety at High-Speed Intersections through Vehicle 2438

Tracking
Baoji Wang and Ping Yi

Public Transportation Technology and Systems

An Integration of Network Data Model and Linear Reference System for 2446
Transit Planning
Haiye Zhang and Wenxiao Yan

Analysis on the Financial Subsidies of Bus Companies 2458

Lishan Sun, Liya Yao, and Jian Rong

A Dynamic Setting Method for a Public Transit Network 2466

Han Bai, Lu-tao Bai, and Yang-dong Zhao

An Optimization Route Model on the Problems of Cooperative Public 2476

Transportation Networks with Grid Services
Zeng Yi

Research on Bi-Level Program Model and Algorithm for Optimization of the 2484
Conventional Public Transit Network
Wei-xiong Zha and Shi-bin Wang

“Quasi-BRT”—A New Way to Improve the Efficiency of BRT Corridor 2494

Cui Gao, Dongyuan Yang, and Shang Wang

Framework of Public Transport System Optimization Based on Mass Rapid 2505

Transit Network
Yuxing Sun, Wentao Liu, Zhihong Chen, and Shaohui Chen

2515
The Coordination Evaluation Research for Multi-Modal Public Transport System
Ping Wu, Yanyan Chen, Guanghou Zhang, and Wen Wu

Study on an Optimization Method for a Heavy Cargo Transportation Route 2522

Based on Total Cost
Hongzheng Zhao, Hongzhi Guan, Yan Han, and Erhui Chen

Development of a Planning Method for Coordinating a Public Transport 2530

Network with the Location of Transfer Terminals
Zhen-bao Wang, Yan-yan Chen, and Ying-ying Mao

Design and Implementation of the Platform Screen Doors System for BRT 2540
Chonghua Zhou, Zhizhe Su, and Jiuzhou Zhou

Research on the Efficiency of Urban Public Transit and Road Land Utilization 2553
Based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist Index, Taking Zhejiang
Province as an Example
Jianming Sun and Ronghua Yi

Optimal Frequency Setting on Transit Lines: A Marginal Cost Analysis 2560

Approach
Zhibin Li, Wei Wang, Dan Li, Jian Lu, and Chengcheng Xu

Impact on Land Use and Local Real Estate along the Urban Rail Transit 2569
Hongfei Jia, Fang Zong, and Miao Zhang

Service Level Classification of Facilities in Passenger Terminals Based on 2581

Pedestrian Flow Characteristics Analysis
Lili Yang, Hongfei Jia, Zhicai Juan, and Jingshan Zhang

Model and Algorithm for Passenger Station Task Allocation Problem in 2590
Railway Terminal
Yu Li, Jun Zhao, and Jie Cheng

Bus Arrival Time Prediction Model Study in APTS 2597

Wenxia Sun, Pei Chen, Ti Song, and Qiulan Wang

Tour Bus Selection Model and Suggestions in Beijing 2606

Xue Geng, Yuehua Zhu, Ming Zhu, and Yu Zhang

The Popularization and Application of Bicycle Sharing System in Urban 2616

Transportation System
Xiang-guo Wu and Ru-hua Zhang

Scheme Choice for Introducing a Passenger Dedicated Line into a Railway 2629
Hub
Shunli Wang, Shuwei Wang, and Bei Wang

Effect Study on Community Bus Basic on Trip-Chain Analysis 2639

Ying Hui
 Urban Public Transport in China: Benchmarking and Catching Up with 2645
Reference Countries
Hongyang Wu, Yulin Jiang, Hu Peng, and Leilei Liu

Urban Transportation’s Affect on Environmental Impact

and Protection
Fractal Study on the Planning and Layout of Urban Pedestrian Cross-Street 2654
Interchange Facilities
Qi Zhang, Tong-sheng Li, and Kai-yuan Chen

Analysis of Thermal Comfort in Modern Train Station’s Waiting Room of 2666

China
Lei Yuan, Nan-yang Yu, Zhi-chao Dong, and Li Chang

The Study of Green Cost for Expressway Network Planning 2675

Jincheng Liu and Jianmei Tan

Research and Application of Visual Optimization Method for Urban Regional 2687
Traffic Network
Xin-huan Zhang, Xing-jian Xue, and Ke-fei Yan

A Model for Highway Landscape Evaluation 2695

Hongjie Li, Xiaoning Zhang, Yuehua Duan, and Wenliang Wu

Activity Based Research on Family Joint Tour Generation 2704

Jingjie Zhao, Yang Bian, and Jian Rong

Analysis on Influencing Factors for Carbon Emissions of Urban Passenger 2716

Transport
Tian Xiao, Xiaofa Shi, and Ke Wang

Research on Model of Circular Construction Products Logistics System 2729

Kai Zheng, Yihong Ru, Ruijing Wang, and Yu Zhu

Analyzing Residential Travel Mode Choice Based on Principal Component 2739

Analysis
Zhi-jian Chen, Lin Cheng, Hu-nan Deng, and Jing-ke Zhang

Analysis on Factors Associated with Shopping Transport Mode Choice and 2747
Change: A Study in Two Cities in China—Shanghai and Shenzhen
Ke Wang, Xiaofa Shi, and Tian Xiao

The Influence of Breaking and Stabilization Technology on Urban Buried 2758

Pipeline in Old Portland Cement Concrete Pavement
Ping Li, Xiu-li Wang, Hui-shan Li, and Gui-xian Wu

Implementation Strategies of TOD in Rail Transit Line 3 of Shenzhen 2769

Jing-yuan Wang, Yan Han, and Jian-shi Zhang
Development and Application of Dynamic Vehicle Emission Model for Urban 2779
Road Networks
Yi Gao, Lei Yu, Guohua Song, Yaofang Xu, and Yanzhao Hao

Road Landscape Sensitivity Analysis of the Chang’An Avenue in Beijing 2789

Zhonghua Wei and Chen Zhang

Research on the Driver Shift Quality Based on Fuel Economy 2798

Hao Zhang, Xiansheng Li, You Ren, and Xia Liu

Analysis on Complex Evolution Networks of Urban Traffic Networks in Peak- 2805

Hour
Jun-ren Long, Jun-fang Li, De-ming Yang, Li Yang, and Muhammad Babar Khan

Peak Attenuation Rule and Environmental Assessment of Ground Vibration 2817

Due to Dynamic Compaction
Yong-jun Ni, Xue-feng Zhang, Xin-li Teng, Qing-chao Wei, and Zhe Li

Analysis and Study of Safety Influence of Foundation Pit Excavation on 2829

Adjacent Existing Subway Structure
Xiao-lin Yu, Quan-sheng Yan, and Wei-feng Wang

Ecological Footprint Analysis of Large Public Structures Traffic Influence 2839

Bin Wang

Study on Park and Ride Facility’s Site Selection Based on the Environmental 2849
Benefits
Xiao-song Pan, Huan-mei Qin, and Hong-zhi Guan

Technique for the Measurement of Sound Intensity and Its Utilization in 2857
Spotting the Noise Sources within Automobiles
Jinku Li and Jianguo Yu

Vibration Testing and Analysis of Tunnel Foundation Pit Enclosing Pile Due 2865
to Moving Bullet Train
Yun-qing Zhang, Yan Yu, Hui-bin Zhang, and Ming-zhang Chen

Based on AHP Evaluating and Testing Fuzzy Optimization Model of Herbs 2871
Slope
Xi-bin Dong, Hai-Biao Wang, and Dong Wang

Application Research of Similarity Theory and Scale Model in Sound Barrier 2883
Noise Test
Yan Liu, Bing Yang, Xiaopai Zhang, Jitan Guo, Bin Huang, Lijuan Qu, and Huayun Sun

Modeling Impact of Traffic Operations on Carbon Monoxide Dispersion 2890

Ming Chai, Heng Wei, Zhixia Li, and Mingming Lu

The Correlation of CO Emissions Inside Transit Buses with Vehicle Operation 2903
Modes: A Preliminary Case Study
 Bradford Albrinck, Mingming Lu, Jiangchuan Hu, Vijay Krishna Nemalapuri, Heng Wei, and Liya
Yu

Transportation Infrastructure Construction and

Emerging Technology
Experimental Research on Recycled Aggregate Concrete for Highway 2913
Pavement
De-jian Yang, Ya-han Hao, and Tie-cheng Wang

Experimental Studies on Microstructure and Technical Performance of 2920

Multiphase Compound Crumb Rubber Modified Asphalt
Lan Wang, Yong-ming Xing, and Chun-qing Chang

Comparison of the Mechanics and Durability of Hybrid Fiber Reinforced 2927

Concrete and Frost Resistant Concrete in Bridge Deck Pavement
Shuling Gao, Wenling Tian, Ling Wang, Pei Chen, Xiaowei Wang, and Jinli Qiao

Study on Train Derailment Control on Railway Steel Bridge 2936

Zhihui Zhou, Jun Zhang, Wenxiao Qin, and Qingyuan Zeng

Centrifuge Model Tests on Settlement Controlling of Piled Raft Composite 2942

Foundation in High Speed Railway
Changdan Wang, Shunhua Zhou, Binglong Wang, and Xu Wang

Analysis on Ground Temperature Character and Cooling Effect of the Particle 2954
Improved Roadbed in Permafrost
Ming-kui Huang

Corrosion Monitoring for Service Life Prediction of Reinforcement Concrete 2962

Infrastructures
Wei-qun Cao, Peng Zhagn, and Tie-jun Zhao

Research on the Correlation between Vibration Acceleration of Roller and 2974

Compaction Degree of Subgrade Soil
Yuan-wen Cao, Nai-xing Liang, Min Qin, and Zhao-feng Lu

Mechanism Analysis and Treatment Study of Modui Landslide on No. 317 2983
National Highway
Yunwei Meng, Hejun Chai, Haiping Li, and Chunsheng Li

Aesthetic Design for Structures of Highway Viaducts 2991

Zhijian Hu, Zhiwei Wan, and Yunyang Wang

Seismic Response Analysis on a Steel-Concrete Hybrid Structure 3001

Ze-liang Yao, Fa-ning Dang, and Guo-liang Bai

Research on the Mechanism of Melting Ice on Storage-Salt Roads 3008

XiaoHua Zhao, XieDong Zhang, YongJun Meng, and Yu Mei
Prototype Model Tests of Soil and Tunnel Interactions under Earthquake 3015
Forces
Nina Liu, Yang Liu, Dongdong Han, Yuming Men, and Jianbing Peng

Technology Research of Non-Burnt Brick and Application to Highway 3023

Engineering
Hailiang Wang, Xiedong Zhang, and Hong Li

Theoretical Study of the Mechanical Behavior of Steel-Concrete Composite 3030

Beams under Uniform Load
Chun-liang Li and Long Zhang

Resilient Behavior of Compacted Silt under the Repeated Triaxial Test 3037
Jun-hua Xiao and Yan-bin Guan

Numerical Stability Analysis of the Multi-Layered High-Filled Embankment 3046

Slope Subjected to Rainfall Infiltration
Jing-sheng Ding, Guo-xiong Wu, Min Wang, and Lin Chen

A Study of the Strength Mechanism of Semi-Flexible Composite Pavement 3055

Material and a Modified Method for the Determination of Its Compressive Resilient
Modulus
Guo-xiong Wu, Yan Wang, and Rui-yan Wang

3D Effect Analysis of Geometrically Complicated High-Filled Slope Stability 3063

Guo-xiong Wu, Jing-sheng Ding, Min Wang, and Xian-yi Liu

Analysis of Mechanical Properties of Joint Structure in External Pre- 3071

Stressing Concrete Bridges
Haibo Jiang, Lingming Yang, Chungen Wei, Shaoxin Huang, Ruixin Shi, Xiang Long, and Aide He

Water Sorptivity of Steam Cured Concrete for Railway Precast Elements at 3080
Early Ages
Zhi-Min He, Feng Xing, and Zhu Ding

Creep Effect Analysis of Concrete Beams Reinforced with FRP Sheets 3087
Guodong Zheng, Jifeng Liang, and Lei Wu

Stability Finite Element Analysis in the Process of One Side Widened- 3095
Embankment Construction
Lin Yang and Wei Shan

Seismic Response Analysis of Multispan Bridge Using FEM 3102

Zhan Chen and Xiedong Zhang

Pressure Distribution of Flexible Ecological Retaining Wall of Steep Highway 3110

Slope
Jin Li, Yong Tang, and Ming-dong Wang

Studying the Adaptive Control of Tunnel Excavation Based on Numerical 3117

Simulation and Particle Swarm Optimization
 Jun Xing, Annan Jiang, and Jingping Qiu

Compressive Performance of Geogrid-Reinforced Granular Soil 3126

You-chang Hu, Hai Song, Jun Zhou, Ding-tao Liu, and Jin-tian Tong

Influence of Aggregate Gradation on Pavement Performance of Open- 3133

Graded Large Stone Asphalt Mixes
Qi-lin Fu and Shuan-fa Chen

Construction Methods about Replacing the Railway Bridges’ Old Simple 3141
Beams Rapidly
Yaohui Zhang and Cunbao Zhao

Influence of Soil-Pile-Structure Interaction on Seismic Response of Long 3147

Span Suspension Bridge
Lin Xiao, Cui-juan Li, and Shi-zhong Qiang

Research on Push-Over Analytic Method Considering Higher-Order Vibration 3157

Modes
Yu Mei, Xiedong Zhang, Xiaohua Zhao, and Xun Zhou

Research on the Calculation Method for Special-Shaped Box Girder Bridges 3165
Based on Measured Data
Ya-feng Gong, Han-bing Liu, Xiang-hui Li, and Huan-li Wang

Construction and Management of Transit Stations along Chongqing Circle 3176

City Freeway
Lang Liu, Ning Zhong, Xuejia Chen, Juan Xue, and Jianping Gao

Experimental Study on Seismic Performance of Prestressed Concrete Beams 3187

under Low Reversed Cyclic Loading
Jian Su and Zong-guang Sun

Analysis of Bridge Deck Pavement Structure Interlayer Based on Different 3194

Interface Form
Na Li, Sen Han, Jing-tao Yu, and Hai-feng Wang

Research on the Influence Law of Vehicles to the Natural Frequency of 3201

Highway Simply Supported Girder Bridges
Guo-jin Tan, Yong-chun Cheng, Hong Zhao, and Fu-shou Liu

Experimental Study on Deformation of Multistage Retaining Wall 3209

Sheng-ji Jin, Jian-min Xiong, and Tian-qing Yu

Dynamic Behavior of a Simply Supported Beam with the Complex Damping 3215
Subjected to Loads Moving with Variable Speeds
Hui-dong Zhang, Rui-bin Zhao, Yu-qiao Liu, and Yuan-feng Wang

Model Test Study on Dynamic Responses of Step-Shaped Loess Slope with 3227
Dynamic Compaction
Zhong Zhou, Wan-li Chao, and Bao-chen Liu
New Types of Concrete Boxed Cofferdam for the Construction of Offshore 3238
Pile Caps
YanQuan Jiang and Feng Zhang

Test Study on Road Performance of Soils Stabilized by Liquid Stabilizer in 3245

Seasonally Frozen Regions
Yao Chen, Wen-Ting Dai, and Li Wang

Service Life Prediction Method of Concretes Based on Mass Loss Rate: 3253
Establishment and Narration of Mathematical Model
Qing-ling Wu, Hong-fa Yu, and Xiao-xian Chen

The Assessment Method of Safety Performance of Cable-Stayed Bridge 3261

under Multi-Hazard Based on Structure Vulnerability
Yin Gu, Wei Huang, and Lichu Fan

Performance Study on Rubber Powder Modified Asphalt of Waste Tire 3272

Zhao-yi He, Zhao-feng Lu, and Wen-wu Zhang

Design of Low-Volume High-Class Highway: A Case Study 3279

An Li and Jiang-bi Hu

Performance Analysis on Modified Bitumen by Nature Rock Asphalt 3291

Zhao-feng Lu, Zhao-yi He, Gang Huang, and Qin Min

Characteristics of Track Dynamic Stiffness of Ballastless Turnout in High- 3298

Speed Railway
Ping Wang, Rong Chen, and Xiao-ping Chen

Optimization of Dynamic Design for Ballastless Turnout on Bridges in High 3305

Speed Railways
Rong Chen, Ping Wang, and Shunxi Quan

Pipe-Shed Advanced Support Technique of Tunnel Construction with 3313

Complicated Soft Surrounding Rock
Guili Liu, Xiufeng Chen, and Yongming Tai

Research on the Key Problems of CFRP Cables for Cable-Stayed Bridges 3322
Hua Zang, Yong-ming Tu, Kui-hua Mei, and Wei Zhang

Experimental Study on Seismic Behavior of a New Type of Bridge Pier 3330

Hua Zang, Zhao Liu, Yong-ming Tu, and Yun-mei Meng

A General Method for Designing Railway Transition Curve Algebraic 3340

Equations
Xiangguo Li, Musong Li, Jianqing Bu, Yanliang Shang, Mingzhang Chen

Simulation on Dynamic Behavior of Railway Transition Curves 3349

Xiangguo Li, Musong Li, Hailong Wang, Jianqing Bu, and Mingzhang Chen

Statistical Methods Applied to Pavement Construction Quality Assurance 3358

 Yan Wang, Wei-hong Xuan, and Xiang Ma

Optimum Analysis of Suspenders Tensioning through Skewed Arch Bridge 3366

with Curved Beam
Haixin Huang, Bo Liu, Ying Zang, and Fan Li

Error in the Theoretical Analysis of Bridge Tests for Reinforced Concrete 3373
Bridges
Dandan Kong, Dong Liang, and Xin Zhao

Application of CFG Piles for Soft Foundation Treatment in the Wuhan- 3382
Guangzhou Railway Passenger Special Line
Yan-Liang Shang, Qiang Li, and Teng-Feng Yang

Research on the High Performance Concrete Used for Pile Foundation in 3391
Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Permafrost Region
Yu-fang Han, Jiu-jun Yang, Guo-yu Liu, Zhan-you Yan, and Ying Zhou

Risk Analysis of Butterfly Arch Continuous Girder Bridge’s V-Shaped Pier 3401
during the Construction Process on the Basis of the Technique of Artificial Neural
Network
Yong Sun and Lifeng Wang

Flexural Stiffness Reduction Factor of Reinforced Concrete Bridge Pier with 3410
Circular Section
Chunxiang Zhang, Zhiquan Yao, Pengfei Luo, Dongjian Shen, and Jianxin Wang

An Approach toward Environment-Friendly Urban Roads 3417

Chonghou Zhang and Xiaolei Gao

Prediction of Post-Construction Settlement Based on Parameter Inversion of 3423

Soft Soil Foundation
Yuan-zhao Chen, Heng-hui Cao, and Zhen-xia Li

Interlayer Working State of Asphalt Mixture Deck Paving Course and New 3429
Waterproof Binding Material
Heng-hui Cao, Yuan-zhao Chen, and Zhen-xia Li

Crack Resistance of Lime-Flyash-Cement Stabilized Macadam 3440

Zhen-xia Li, Zhen-xian Xing, and Yuan-zhao Chen

Local Stress Analysis of the Big Intersection Angle V-Shaped Pier of 3453
Butterfly Arch Continuous Girder Bridge
Yong Sun and Lifeng Wang

Improved Calculation Method of Main Cable Curve of Suspension Bridge with 3463
Inclined Hangers
Haixin Huang, Bo Liu, Ying Zhang, and Yonggang Tan

Parameter Analysis of Bridge Life-Cycle Costs and Its Application in Bridge 3471
Design
 Xin Zhao, Dong Liang, Mai Wu, and Dandan Kong

Orthogonal Test Research of Asphalt Rubber Modified by Warm Asphalt 3480

Additive
Shutang Liu, Weidong Cao, and Jianguo Fang

Safety Monitoring and Early Warning for Deep Foundation Pit Construction 3493
Haibiao Wang, Haixu Yang, Xibin Dong, and Songyuan Ni

Research on Permanent Deformation of an Asphalt Mixture by Uniaxial 3501

Repeated Load Test
Yuhui Pi and Xiaoming Huang

Research on Permeability of Asphalt Mixture Based on the Optimization of 3508

Single Air Void
Jian-zhong Pei, Zhi-hui Zhang, Jiu-peng Zhang, and Ming-feng Chang

Research on Time-Temperature-Stress Equivalence Principle for Asphalt 3516

Mixture
Jiupeng Zhang, Jianzhong Pei, and Binggang Wang

Research on Different Categories of Surrounding Rock having Effect on 3524

Lining Section Design of Trackless Haulage on Inclined Shaft
Qinjie Xiao and Ruifang Mou

Deterioration Analysis and Strengthening Method of Jinan Yellow River 3531

Approach Bridge
Zeying Yang, Xiaopeng Li, Qingsen Shang, Xibin Zhang, Jianbo Qu, and Haiming Yi

Evaluation Method of Pavement Roughness Based on Human-Vehicle-Road 3541

Interaction
Hongliang Zhang and Wanqiao Yang

Development of a Microscopic Traffic Simulation Model Using TRANSIMS: A 3552

Case Study in the Southeast Michigan Area
Hongtao Zhang, Hubo Cai, Jun-Seok Oh, and C. Y. David Yang

A Critique on the Highway Vertical Curve Design Specifications in China 3564

Zhongren Wang and Chiu Liu

Pavement and Materials Engineering and Highway

Maintenance
Analysis Research on Little Curvature Arch Bar of High Fill Culvert 3572
Wen-hua Wang, Yuan-hang Ju, Wen-ding Zhao, and Jia Qu

Lime-Flyash Stabilization of Asphalt Pavements Using Full-Depth 3581

Reclamation
Jianping Liu and Yungang Nie
Study on the Strain Fatigue Threshold of Asphalt Mixture for Long-Life 3591
Asphalt Pavement
Jian-ping Zhu, Xing-hua Fan, Min-jiang Zhang, and Shuang Gao

Research on Reasonable Structure of Cement Concrete Bridge Deck 3600

Pavement in Cold Region
Zhen-wu Shi, Wei Li, Li-ming Wang, Moatasim, and Yong-fei Feng

Mechanical Analysis on Rutting Resistance in Asphalt Pavement 3611

Jian-ping Zhu, Min-jiang Zhang, Yun-quan Liu, and Ming-Gao

Research on the Spatial Layout of Advance Warning Areas of Work Zones 3618
Keman Wu, Liande Zhong, and Dezao Hou

Regional Calibration of Asphalt Concrete Layers Permanent Deformation 3628

Model for Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide
Qiang Li and Haidong Kuai

The Analysis of Relationship between Joint Deflection of JPCP and Effect 3637
Factors
Jing-song Shan and Zhong-yin Guo

Analytical Solution of Continuously Reinforced Concrete Pavement (CRCP) 3649

under the Action of Temperature Stress
Yun-long Zhang, Han-Bing Liu, and Chun-Ling Zhong

Research of the Parameter Characteristics of Backfill Materials in the Bridge 3661

-Subgrade Transition
Xiang-ping Ou, Li-qiong Tian, and Ming Lu

Status and Development of Maintenance and Strengthening Technologies 3670

for Existing Prestressed Concrete Cable-Stayed Bridges
Hong-jiang Li

Evaluating the Relationship of Asphalt Pavement Skid Resistance to Slip 3678

Speed Using Dynamic Friction Tester Measurements
Yinghao Miao, Dongwei Cao, and Qingquan Liu

Influence of Irregular Pavement on Vehicle-Bridge Coupling Vibration 3686

Responses of Bridge with Corrugated Steel Webs
Ying-nan Xiao, Bao-dong Liu, Peng-fei Li, and Hong-wei Ren

Study on Dynamic Repeated Creep Tests for Viscoelastic Property of Asphalt 3697
Mixtures with Varying Air Voids Content
Ying-mei Yin and Xiao-ning Zhang

Factors and Impact on In-Place Indicators of Asphalt Pavement 3708

Temperature Segregation
Xin Yu

3716
The Impact of Connection Situation on the Early Damage of Asphalt Pavement Layers
Zhi-qing Zhang, Yu-Liang Zhou, Yong Zhang, Yan Jia, Rui Chen, and Hui Ren

Research on the Performances of Warm Asphalt and Warm Mix Asphalt with 3725
Sasobit
Jin Ran, Shifa Xu, Meiling Li, and Jie Ji

Research on Influence of Aggregate Gradation on the Performance of 3738

Porous Asphalt Pavement
Mingliang Xing, Shuanfa Chen, Binggang Wang, and Songtao Wei

Study on Intelligent Decision Patterns of Maintenance for Large Bridges 3747

Min Fan and Shi-jun Song

Analysis of Asphalt Pavement Early Distress at Bus Stop Based on Vibration 3753
Acceleration Signal
Shuyun Wang, Jinxi Zhang, Xiaoli Xie, and Zhixin Yang

Comparison Study on the Performance of Three Types of Foundation 3761

Reinforcing Schema on Soft Soil
Rui-fang Wang, Xu-dong Fu, Yong-quan Li, and Yi-Zhong Wang

Development Study on Decision-Making System of Highway Pavement 3773

Maintenance
Da-zhi He, Jing Tang, and Shun-bo Zhao

Assessment of Hazards in the Construction of Mountainous Expressway: 3780

MLES Approach
Min Nie, Yue-guang Li, Xiao-huang Wanng, Jian-yi Yu, and Sheng Yi

An Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process of Evaluation 3788

Fuhua Yu, Hongke Xu, and Guoqiang Li

Cost and Benefit Evaluation for Pavement Preventive Maintenance 3797

Weiguo Su, Xiaohua Li, and Qingqing Zhu

Lifetime Reliability Analysis of Flexural Cracking for Existing Prestressed 3810

Concrete Bridge under Corrosion Attack
Du Bin, Ren-da Zhao, and Tian-yu Xiang

Heat Reflectivity Properties of Asphalt Mixtures Modified with Nano A/B- 3819
SBS-I: Laboratory Investigation
Qianzheng Kai, Ganbin Liu, and Rong Hu

Heat Reflectivity Properties of Asphalt Mixtures Modified with Nano A/SBS- 3827
II: Prediction of Temperature in Asphalt Pavement
Ganbin Liu, Qianzheng Kai, and Ronghua Ye

Research on Critical Angle of Rock Slope with Infiltration Pressure 3837

Sichang Wang, Xuesen She, and Zhijun Zhou
Finite Element Analysis on Fatigue Cracking of Sisal Fiber Asphalt Mixture 3845
Jinyong Lv and Xiaoming He

Experiment on Asphalt Pavement Roughness Evaluation Based on 3852

Passengers’ Physiological and Psychological Reaction
Shuyun Wang, Jinxi Zhang, and Zhixin Yang

Numerical and Experimental Study of Slippage of Asphalt Pavement at 3864

Intersection
Yuan-zhao Chen, Jin-min Guo, and Zhen-xia Li

Experimental Study of Asphalt Treated Base Binder Course for Pavement 3873
Design
Zhen-xia Li, Yuan-zhao Chen, and Zhen-xian Xing

Rapid Curing Technology of Lime-Fly Ash Stabilized Macadam 3882

Zhen-xia Li, Yuan-zhao Chen, and Jing-li Gong

Design Method of SAMPAVE Asphalt Mixture 3890

Yan Zhou, Shuanfa Chen, Huaxin Chen, and Kai Zhang

Investigate of Mechanism and Rules of the Foamed Asphalt Mixture 3899

Strength
Zhen Wang, Liang He, Jie Zhang, and Xiao-ming Huang

A New Deflection-Based Parameter for Voids Detection in Rigid Pavement 3909

Xingqiang Xiao, Yanjun Qiu, Cheng Mao, and Kevin D. Hall

The Anti-Icing Mechanism of Rubber Asphalt Pavement 3918

Dejun Wu, Hainian Wang, Ping Guo, Yudi Liu, and Sanqiang Yang

IRI Trends of Hawaiian Highways: A Preliminary Study 3928

Shuangjie You and Adrián Ricardo Archilla

Field Investigation of Acoustic Performance of Various Asphalt Surface 3937

Mixes
Qing Lu, Erwin Kohler, and John Harvey

Highway Maintenance and Pavement Preservation Strategies in Canada 3948

Ningyuan Li

Analysis of Pavement Durations Using Nonparametric Hazard-Based 3957

Duration Model
Zheng Li

Discrete Element Simulation of Aggregate Sphericity and Orientation: An 3968

Approach to Improving the Understanding of Asphalt Concrete
Yu Liu and Zhanping You
Freight Transportation and Logistics
Hybrid Heuristic Approaches for Vehicle Routing Problem with Fuzzy 3977
Demands
Chang-shi Liu and Li-xin Xie

Evaluation of the Green Degree of the CZT Urban Agglomeration 3985

Transportation System Based on the Fuzzy-AHP Method
Zhongwei Wang and Dan Tan

Evaluation of Programs of Regional Distribution Center Location 3997

Wen-ge Liu and Sheng-chaun Zhao

An Evaluation of Green Logistics within the Shanghai Shipping Hub Based on 4007
AHP & Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation
Min-hui Guo, R. Barry McComic, and Cun-qiang Cai

Mechanism Design of TPLs Based on Information Asymmetry 4016

Diansheng Li and Lina Gao

Balanced Transportation Model Used in the Coal Inventory and Railway 4024
Transportation Joint Optimization Problem
Yujie Zang, Ning Zhang, and Qingyun Wang

Research on a Construction Project Supply Chain 4034

Shijun Song and Min Fan

Discussion of Strategic Alliance in Logistics Enterprises and Profit 4040

Distribution
Yuzhou Wang and Bin Chen

Supplier Selection and Order Allocation Based on the Procurement Risk 4050
Coefficient
Lei Xiao, Fa-zhi Li, and Tie Wang

A Multi-Attribute Stochastic Programming Approach for Supply Chain 4060

Planning with VAR
Huapu Lu, Xinxin Yu, Xiaoqiang Zhao, Yue Li, and Nan Cheng

Logistics Assignment Model of Logistics Network Based on Logistics Field 4068

Theory
Bing Zhao, Nuo Wang, and Chunxia Yang

The Growth Pole Theory Research of the Logistics Information Platform 4078
Jian-gang Qiao, Sheng-yun Zhang, and Xi Wu

Study of Supply Chain Management Based on the Small-World Model 4085

Jianhua Qu and Guangyin Xu

The Design of Uncapacitated Single Allocation Hub-and-Spoke Networks 4090

Using a Hybrid Algorithm
 Dali Jiang and Haitao Li

Performance Analysis for Automobile Logistics System Using SPN 4103

Liang Sun and Shao wei Yu

Improvement of a Welding Workshop Logistics System Based on Lean 4110

Thinking
Haitao Su, Xiaoyan Jiang, Yan Xue, and Libao Li
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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Study of Travel Transfer Mode of Shuttle Bus Based on ML Model

Yan HAN1, Hongzheng ZHAO2, Hongzhi GUAN3
1
Doctor candidate, Key laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing, 100124; PH (0863) 010-67391509; FAX (0863)
010-67391509; email: hanyan422@bjut.edu.cn
2
Master candidate, Key laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing,100124;PH (0863) 010-67396181,FAX (0863) 010-67391509;
email: zhaohongzheng@emails.bjut.edu.cn
3
Professor, Key laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology,
Beijing, 100124; PH (0863) 010-6739190; FAX (0863) 010-67391980; email:
hguan@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
To resolve the traffic congestion problem, this research develops a method for
design of a shuttle bus route and its stations considering transfers with subway., Such
a design can potentially attract a large number of commuters to take a shuttle bus to
workplace instead of private cars to avoid rush hour traffic. The RP and SP survey
about the travel behavior of shuttle bus commuters’ is carried out and analyzed
considering its transfer with subway. Influencing factors of selecting shuttle bus are
analyzed. On the base of combination of various factors, transfer mode choice model
of shuttle bus is given in this paper. It can be concluded from the analysis results that
most of shuttle bus users arrive at the stop by walk. About 78 percent of the users
whose ratio of transfer time to total time is between 0.2 and 0.5, and 23%of the users
dissatisfy with the stop locations. The results show that time from home to shuttle
bus station, cost, car possession have marked influences on the result of mode split.
The precision of the model is high and the results can provide a good reference for
optimizing of the shuttle bus route.

INTRODUCTION
With the development of the economy and the rapid increase of vehicle
ownership, more and more commuters’ travels are made by private cars, hence
creating traffic congestion. Domestic and foreign scholars have paid so much
attention to the measures for how to establish an effective public traffic system. It is
encouraging to see there is an increased ridership in rail transit and BRT in recent
years (Liu, 2007). The previous researches concluded that urban subway system has
characteristics of rapidity, massive transportation volume, high reliability, safety and
so on. It plays a major role in urban traffic network. However, current transit
operations lack integrated planning and coordinated scheduling between bus routes
and subways. It is difficult to provide a “door to door” service. Consequently, most
of the travels to work are made by private cars, hence creating traffic congestion. On
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 2
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

the other hand, it will take so many funds and years to build an attractive subway
network. It is difficult to encourage people to switch from private car to other
transportation modes (Xu, 2008).
Through shuttle bus line planning and station design, considering its transfer
with subway, it is found that a large number of commuters would prefer shuttle bus
for commuting to work to avoid rush hour traffic. Shuttle bus belongs to subsidized
public transit system. Though there are many shuttle buses operating in our cities,
domestic and foreign scholars have not done much study about mode choice
behaviors related to shuttle bus. Most of previous work has focused on supermarket
bus and school bus. Fei (2008) presented a number of ideas on unit bus trip mode in
urban transportation planning. Wang (2007) prompted optimal route choice of
supermarket free bus. Guo (2006) has developed routing optimization for school bus
problem. Wang (2003) prompted a Tabu search technique for solving the routing
problem. Ceder (2002) develops automated methods for designing circular (shuttle,
feeder) bus routes within which the origin and destination points are all at the central
subway station. Further, the current analytical models put a greater emphasis on the
implementation of the public transit network and its adjustment to the urban
dynamics. From the introduction above, we can conclude that domestic and foreign
scholars have not done much study about optimal design of the route and stations of
shuttle bus according to mode choice behaviors. So it lacks an important tool for
studying policies related to shuttle bus.
Based on the RP and SP survey about the travel behavior of shuttle bus
commuters, influencing factors of selecting shuttle bus are analyzed. Transfer mode
choice model of shuttle bus is given in this paper on the base of combination of
various factors.
This paper consists of the following sections. Section 2 introduces travel
behavior of shuttle bus and a number of assumptions about operating character.
Section 3 presents the survey and analysis results related to mode choice behavior.
Section 4 covers the mode choice model of shuttle bus with Multinomial Logit model.
Section 5 presents the results of model, followed by summary and conclusions.
TRAVEL BEHAVIOR CHARACTER OF SHUTTLE BUS
It is necessary to develop a method for the design of a shuttle bus route in
order to encourage more commuters using shuttle bus. To ensure that shuttle bus
work effectively and have a high use rate, it is necessary to study shuttle bus line
planning and station design. Moreover, its relationship with other traffic modes such
as subway and other buses should be considered to establish a system with a good
accessibility. The design of the route should aim at collecting passengers from
different origins in an urban network, to a pre-defined destination point .The
potential demand of shuttle bus from every link of the urban network to the
workplace is determined. Assessment of the demand potential is made on the basis of
spatial data from the urban network, and subject to a number of assumptions as
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 3
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

detailed below.
Assumption 1: Shuttle bus users wish to access a waiting point on the road
link as quickly as possible from an origin point.
Assumption 2: The passengers will choose the nearest possible waiting point
for which the departure time of shuttle bus should not be earlier than each
passenger’s expected departure time.
Assumption 3: In order to assure an adequate level of service, this design
guarantees that the travel time complies with a pre-defined time constraint.
The total travel time can be divided into two parts: the time from the origin
point to the shuttle bus station and the time from shuttle bus station to workplace. It
is assumed that the transit vehicle will travel in a designated lane and hence will not
be part of any traffic congestion (Jerby, 2006). Therefore this research considers only
average travel time.
For shuttle bus users, they need consider their departure time, trip mode and
which route or station to take. So it is necessary to understand the travel behavior
characteristic before designing a shuttle bus route. Thus, this study investigates the
behavior of shuttle bus users, with a view of determining the best routing.
TRANSFER MODE CHOICE BEHAVIOR SURVEY AND ANALYSIS
Survey Summary
The survey was conducted in Beijing in April 2009. The subject of this
survey was the revealed behaviors of shuttle bus users considering their transfers
with subway. The survey consisted of three parts. The first part concerned the
respondents' household characteristics such as gender, age, income, and vehicle
ownership. The second part included the questions related to the travel information
of shuttle bus such as weekly use frequency, departure time, proximity to subway,
travel time, travel mode to the shuttle bus station, trip fare. The third part provided
the revealed preference questions such as the accepted earliest departure time, level
of satisfaction about the shuttle bus route or station and the preferred choice of
passengers when shuttle bus route or stations were changed. Three trip modes of bus,
walking, and subways were offered to choose in the survey.
The survey uses face to face consultation in one company. A total of 200
respondents were obtained.
Analysis on Survey Results
(1) Analysis on trip characteristic
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 4
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Figure 1. Ride frequency of shuttle bus in one week.

As shown in Figure 1, 67% of passengers choose shuttle bus every workday,
and about 93% of the passengers use shuttle bus 3 times every week.

Figure 2. Distance between home and workplace.

It is clear that the proportion of the shuttle bus passengers whose distances
between home and workplace are within 30km is about 70% from Figure 2. Only
15% is below 10 km.
(2) Analysis on transfer mode characteristic
The access time is the time shuttle bus users spend from home to shuttle bus
station. As shown in figure 3, the proportion of shuttle bus users whose access time is
below 20 minutes is about 67% of the total, and the proportion of shuttle bus users
whose access time is more than 50 minutes is only 8%. The ratio of the transfer time
and trip time is mainly between 0.2 and 0.5 which accounts for over 78.1%. It is
necessary to shorten the transfer time.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 5
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Figure 3. Time needed to the shuttle bus station.

As shown in Figure 4, Walking is the dominating access mode and this
proportion is over 50%. Bus is the secondary access trip and the proportion is over
32%. The proportions of the other trip modes are small and subway only accounts for
about 7%, because a lot of shuttle bus stations are far away from the subway station.
This indicates that the location of shuttle bus stations indeed influences the mode
choice.

Figure 4. Distribution of transfer mode.

(3)SP survey analysis
The level of satisfaction about the shuttle bus is studied during the survey. It
can be seen form Figure 5 that about 77% of the passengers are satisfied with the
location settings of the shuttle bus station, 23% of passengers are dissatisfied, and
about 4% of the passengers are very dissatisfied. So it is necessary to optimize the
shuttle bus route design.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 6
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Figure 5. Difference between ideal and real departure time.

MODE CHOICE MODELS OF SHUTTLE BUS
Model Specifications
Multinomial Logit model was used as following in this paper (Guan, 2004).

eVin
Pin = (1)
∑e
V jn

j∈An

where： Pin = probability of a traveler n choosing the project i;

Vin = deterministic component of utility i for user n (fixed item);
An = aggregate of the choice project of traveler n.
According to our statistical analysis, access cost, access time and vehicle
ownership are chosen as the independent variables of the shuttle bus access mode
choice model.
The choices of access modes are supposed as follows:
A={i=1(walking)，i=2(public traffic)，i=3(subway) }
Then, the Logit model for determining access mode for shuttle bus can be
described as:

e V in e V in
P in = = (2)
∑ e jn e 1 n + e 2 n + e 3 n
V V V V

j∈ A n

3
Vin = ∑θ k X in = θ 0 + θ1 × Car + θ 2 × Cost + θ 3 × Time (3)
k =1

Where: Car = vehicle ownership

Cost = access cost
Time =access time
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Calibration of Model
Shuttle bus access mode choice model is developed for further analysis as
follows by analyzing the relationships among the above three influence factors.
Table1. Parameter estimates of the model.
Mode Choice Model
Variable Parameter value t value
Walking 5.156 4.078
Fixed item
Public traffic 2.968 3.231

vehicle ownership 1.319 1.764

Access time -0.039 -3.895

Access cost -1.535 -3.654

L（0） -76.955

L(θ ) -40.538

− 2 ( L ( 0 ) − L (θ )) 72.835

ρ2 0.473

ρ2 0.408

The absolute value of t-statistics of vehicle ownership, access cost and access
time are all higher than 1.96, which indicates that these influential factors are
significant for the choice probability of shuttle bus access mode choice model at a 5
percent confidence level. And the coefficients of assess time and access cost are
negative, meaning that these two factors have negative effect on the mode choice.
That is to say, the longer the access time is, the higher the access cost is, the
lesstravelers are likely to choose this mode. Furthermore, the effect of vehicle
ownership is significant to mode choices. And its coefficient is positive, meaning that
it has positive effect on the mode choice. That is to say, private owners are more
likely to choose walking or public traffic than non-private drivers. The goodness of
fit parameter ρ2 and goodness-of fit index adjusted by freedom ρ of the access
2

model are 0.473 and 0.408 respectively, which implies that the forecast accuracy of
the model is high.
CONCLUSION
In this paper, based on survey data and ML model, the shuttle bus access
mode choice model was established. Conclusions following can be made based on
the results of our model.
About 78 percent of the users whose ratio of transfer time to total time is
between 0.2 and 0.5, and 23 percent of the users is not satisfied with the shuttle bus
stop location. The result show that access time from home to shuttle bus station,
access cost and vehicle ownership have marked influences on the result of mode
choices. The accuracy of the model is high and the results from this study can
provide a basis for optimizing the design of shuttle bus route. For future research, we
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 8
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would take advantage of SP (Stated Preference) survey data to establish choice

behavior models.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Financial support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of
China (Grant No. 50678004) is acknowledged. The author would like to thank one
anonymous referee for his (her) helpful comments and suggestion, which improved
the quality of this paper substantially.
REFERENCES
Ceder, A, and Y. B. Yim. (2002). Integrated Smart Feeder/Shuttle Bus Service,
California PATH report, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of
California at Berkeley.
Fei, (2008). Thoughts on Unit Bus Trip Mode in Urban Transportation Planning.
Traffic and Transportation, (12):16-18.
Guan, Hongzhi.(2004). Disaggregate Model —A Tool of Traffic Behavior Analysis
[M].Beijing: China Communications Press, 2004
Guo, Qiang, Li, Yu-an, Guo, Yaohuang. Routing Optimization for School Bus
Problem. Journal of Southwest Jiao tong University, 2006, 41(4):486-490.
Shai, Jerby, Ceder, Avishai (2006). Optimal Routing Design for Shuttle Bus Service
Transportation Research Record, n 1971, p 14-22,
LIU, Gang (2007). A Behavioral Model of Work-trip Mode Choice in Shanghai.
China Economic Review 18 (2007) 456–476
Wang, Xiyuan. Optimal Route Choice of Supermarket Free Bus. Technology &
Market, 2007, (6):86-87.]
WANG, Dong-Ping LI Shao-Rong(2003). Tabu Search Technique for Solving the
Routing Problem. Computer Science , (06):55-57.
Xu, Qidong(2008). Model for Layout of Optimization with Collectivity Public
Transportation Station .Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,
2008, (01):91-93.
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Air-Rail Inter-Modality Interpretation and Service Pattern in Yangtze Delta

Area

Yali ZHAO1, Cancan QIN2

1 Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,

Tongji University, Email: zhaoyali@mail.tongji.edu.cn
2 Shanghai Airport Construction Headquarter

ABSTRACT
Integration of Railway and Aviation is a typical trend all over the world. Except
for competition, the modes can be cooperated to provide better service for travelers.
This paper reviewed status of Air-rail inter-modality in Europe and other regions. In
developed areas such as Yangtze Delta Area and Pearl River Area, economic vigor
and regional communication lead to a typical trip-chain pattern for Aviation and
Railway. Under the background of Yangtze Delta River, this paper interprets the
concept of the inter-modality. The main point of this paper is not just infrastructure
settlement; service is key index for travelers. Service pattern of inter-modality is also
illustrated.

1. INTRODUCTION

Air-rail inter-modality has been paid attention for many years. High-speed railway
connecting large airport terminal is typical pattern all over the world. Therefore,
air-rail inter-modality is not just infrastructure concept. It is a complex system
concept that we must understand from infrastructure, service and function, technical
plan, operation management and operating mechanism.
The demand varies from one city to other and from country to country. Although
we have lot of experience from Europe, Japan, Hong Kong and domestic areas such
as Yangtze Area in China, and many developed economical districts in China,
research has been carried out in this study on background and necessity analysis. A
new concept of Air-Rail inter-modality is put forward. Service framework is also
elaborated. Supporting conditions for different services are also specified.

2. EXPERIENCES REVIEW AND BRIEF SUMMARY

Air-Rail inter-modality is a well established practice in foreign countries. Most of

them are promoted by Aviation industry for the purpose of expanding their service
district.
2.1 High-Speed Railway and Airport Integration is in practice in Several Countries
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Table 1. Types of Railway Connecting to Airports.

Design speed Length

Types Railway Line From and To Stations
km/h km
Paris-Charles de Gaulle
Brussels Miti station
Hercules Thalys 233.4 291.7
National ——Airport
high-speed Railway
High-spee
Amsterdam Schiphol
d Railway Brussels miti station
Airport Hercules Thalys 160 About 300
——Airport
high-speed Railway
Intercity
Frankfurt Airport Stuttgart Railway Station
high-speed 330 202.7
Intercity high-speed line ——Airport
line
Incheon Airport —
Common Incheon Airport Korea Gimpo Airport
120 61.7
Railway High Speed Railway — Seoul Central
Station

Oslo, Airport Express Oslo Central Station

210 50
Airport Line —Airport
Express
Line Heathrow Airport Paddington Station
160 24
Express Line —Airports
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2.2 Multiple Services can be Provided to Traveller by Railway - Airport Integration

Table 2. Services based on Air-Rail Intermodality.

Service Types
Traveller Baggage Baggage
Airport Ticket Service
Remote remote Transport
Systems market
Check-in Check-in Mode
Only for
At Cologne
Automatic One ticket passenger of
and
Frankfurt Airport Baggage Railway for Air Lufthansa
Stuttgart
Check-in and Rail Aviation
station
Company
Baggage
Check-in，
London Heathrow At Passenger to
and second Separated
Airport Paddington Truck Heathrow
security ticket
Station Airport
check at
airport
Baggage
At Kowloon Check-in，
Passenger to
Hong Kong Station and and second Separated
Railway Hongkong
Airport Central security ticket
Airport
Station check at
airport
Baggage
Free-hand travel
Check-in at
plans / Multi-mode / All travelers
requested
In Japan
address
Passengers
Passenger
to
Guangzhou Airport Check-in
Guangzhou
and Shenzhen based on / / /
and
Airport in China Airport Bus
Shenzhen
service
Airport

2.3 Brief Summary

From Tables 1 and 2, the practices in and out China are summarized in this section.

From thorough observation of practices in other countries, we conclude that:

• It is very common for high-speed Railway to connect Large Airport, especially to

serve regional demand, and for service improvement;
• Objective of Inter-modality is not for system integration. Good service is the
main objective. Type of services include passenger remote Check-in and
Baggage remote Check-in, and some ticketing service and information services;
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• Now, service of inter-modality is commonly provided at 1~2 rail stations along

the railway connecting to Airport, and it is not extend to general stations;
• “One ticket service” is only provided by Frankfurt Airport and only available for
Lufthansa flights. This service is promoted by Aviation Company itself.

In China, remote check-in service is provided for several cities around Shenzhen and
Guangzhou Airports. As railway service is not available, passengers take bus to the
airport. This is inter-modality between Air and Coach Service. In Pearl Delta Area,
this type of service is promoted by Airports and the main objective is to attract
passengers.

3. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE INTEGRATION ANALYSIS IN

YANGTZE DELTA DISTRICT

Yangtze Delta District is the highly developed area in China, including Shanghai city
and some areas of Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province. Currently, a close
economic relationship has been well-established in this area. Such an economic
development produces numerous passenger volumes. Freeway construction is rapid
in this area, however road conditions are getting worse due to congestion.
Constructing more freeways to resolve this issue is impossible because of land
resource limitations.
Comprehensive Passenger transportation structure in this area is in an
unreasonable status. Highways/Freeways play a prominent role of about 90 percent.
According to “Railway long-term planning in China”, in Yangtze Delta District, an
efficient, fast, environment-friendly interurban passenger transportation system will
be established to improve current status. Therefore, Railway will inevitably increase
its share in transportation structure.

Figure 1. Main Railway Corridors in Yangtze Delta Area.

According to planning, Peking-Shanghai High-speed Railway is about 1318

km with design speed of about 300km/h to 350km/h. In Yangtze Delta District,
Peking-Shanghai High-speed Railway has six stations, Nanjing, Changzhou, Wuxi,
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Suzhou, Kunshan and Shanghai. It will be put into operation before Shanghai World
Expo in 2010. With numerous passenger demand between Shanghai and Beijing,
high-speed Railway will bring several positive changes to the existing transportation
system. In addition to high-speed railway corridor, intercity railway network will
further eliminate capacity shortage issues. Shanghai-Nanjing intercity railway is
about 295km, and Shanghai-Hangzhou’s is 160km, are two main corridors in this
area. Existing railway and planned maglev line are also important parts in Railway
network.
These large-scale regional railway constructions will have great benefits for
intercity communications. On the basis of this, efficient infrastructure integration is
necessary. Hubs are always key parts for integration. Therefore, construction of
Shanghai Hongqiao Terminal is substantially important for integration.
In Hongqiao terminal, high-speed railway, intercity railway, maglev (From
Hongqiao to Pudong Airport), and metro system inside Shanghai are totally
integrated in one building complex. This allows transfer between different modes
convenient and efficient. From the other hand, almost seamless connectivity of Air
and Rail is realized. Based on this infrastructure integration, we can consider how to
make services integrated, so that efficiency and benefit of infrastructure integration
can bring into play. Plane Layout of Hongqiao Terminal is shown in Figure 2.

High-speed and Maglev Air

Intercity railway Station terminal

Figure 2. Plane Layout of Hongqiao Terminal.

Another integration role of Hongqiao terminal is for Pudong Airport. Shanghai

Pudong Airport is located at northeast of Shanghai. Passengers from Yangtze Delta
Area will go through Shanghai city to Pudong Airport. No direct Rapid railway is
connected to Pudong Airport which to some extent oppositely influences its position.
However, planned maglev line between Hongqiao and Pudong Airports will change
this situation. With one transfer in Hongqiao, traveler can take Magelev to Pudong
Airport which will take only 28 minutes. This is an important measure of integration
of Shanghai airport and rapid railway network in Yangtze Delta Area.
Service integration implementation will inevitably be encountered with some
barriers. Generally speaking, technique is not prime barriers, institution is. Some key
barriers are specified here.
Now in rail station, security standards doesn’t meet requirements of Air-Rail
inter-modality. A special security must be established, and qualified equipment and
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staff must be ensured.

According to civil aviation rules, when baggage needs to be opened, the owner
must be on the scene. When baggage is checked in at rail station, it is difficult to find
the traveler in the situation where opening a baggage is required for security reasons.
Therefore, an agreement must be made to deal with this problem. Otherwise, it will
be very inconvenient for travellers.
There are different agent rules for Air and Rail. Currently, travel agent is
hesitated to book ticket for both of Air and Rail. The typical barrier is from Railway
ticket agent. It is difficult for the agent to get a satisfied discount from railway
sectors. And in peak days, it is even more difficult to ensure railway ticket source.
When checked baggage is transported from rail station to Air terminal, it will
produce some investment and operational cost. Who will undertake this cost is a big
problem.

4.SERVICE PATTERNS OF AIR-RAIL INTER-MODALITY

When we talk about service patterns of Air-rail inter-modality, we must be very

clear that we are not trying to establish an advanced and high-level system. What we
want to do is serve passengers better. The service patterns could be diversified. It
could be very simple and direct, but must be efficient.
When infrastructure is integrated, it is a good basis for mode shift. But it is not
enough to ensure a stable mode shift. The service of Air and Rail must be integrated
together in order to ensure the continuity of travel.
Travelers usually arrive at Shanghai before noontime even flight is in the
afternoon. When the flight is in the morning, many travellers leave home one day
before, and make arrangements to stay over night. This in one aspect that depends on
reliability of travel time; the other depends on schedule integration of different
modes. Rapid Railways have accepted reliability. Flight schedule and Railway
schedule can be connected by some way, especially for international flights. When
high-speed railway and intercity railway can operate with frequencies similar to
buses, it will not be a difficult matter for schedule integration.
When Air and Rail are operated separately, travellers need to check-in first at rail
station, if necessary, travelers need to check in at meg-lev station at Hong-qiao
terminal, and finally, travelers should check in at air terminal. According to Rules,
travelers need to check in 30minutes before. It will make travelers arrive at air
terminal in advance to make sure they don’t miss the flight. This will extend the
actual travel time. Therefore, check-in integration is very important for travelers.
People can check in for the flight at rail station. They can ignore the check-in queue
at air terminal and go directly to security checking area. There have been some
practices in China now. In Pearl Delta Area, travelers can check in at DongGuan,
ZhongShan, Huizhou and other city terminal and then come to airport by airport
bus-line. This service is generally accepted but only limited in some major air
companies.
Baggage integration is a much more difficult process than check-in. A secure and
reliable transportation of baggage between rail station and Air terminal is the key
issue. According to civil aviation rules, baggage security is very strict. When
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baggage check-in service is provided at rail-station, security standard should be the

consist with Aviation security. In railway station, secure equipment and secure staff
should be in accordance with aviation standards. The other problem is transportation
of baggage from railway station to Air terminal. How to ensure security on the route?
It is not only a technical problem, but also an institutional problem. A qualified
operator should be selected for baggage transport. And clear responsibility should be
defined in the agreement. If the agreement cannot be reached, some other service
patterns can be provided, such as baggage delivery service. Travellers should claim
their baggage again at air terminal for check in.
Now, Air and Rail industry have independent ticketing systems. Ticket booking,
ticket agent are very different. A website and travel bureau should practice ticket
integration. Some designed journeys should be provided. Full integration of two
ticket systems is very difficult in short range. Therefore, Air and Rail industry can
find ways for information sharing. Some cooperation style should be discussed and
implemented step by step.

5.CONCLUSIONS

This study is first of its kind looking at Air-rail inter-modality on a full systems level.
Several difficulties need to be encountered to achieve such an integration are
addressed in this paper. A new interpretation is developed in this study which
absolutely supports the implementation of inter-modality. System integration shows
huge improvement in transportation system efficiency. For travellers, quality of
service is more important. Especially in early development stages, with simple and
effective measures, inter-modality is currently in progress and will come into
operation in Shanghai by EXPO 2010.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This research work is cooperated with Shanghai Pudong International Airport second
phase project construction headquarters, and funded by Shanghai Science and
Technology Committee, Funding issue No.:04dz12047

6. REFERENCES

[1] China Civil Aviation Science and Technology Research Center. National Airports
Layout in 2020 and "11th Five-Year" construction plan
research[R].2006,(8).

[2] Shanghai Urban Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute. Pudong

International Airport Ground Transportation Study[R], 2002.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 16
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[3] Shanghai Urban Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute. Hongqiao

Comprehensive transportation terminal ground Access system research
report [R], 2006.

[4] Qin, Cancan, Liu, WuJun. Air-rail and Air-Maglev inter-modaliy visions in
Shanghai. Comprehensive Transportation, 2006(5):34-36.

[5] Liu, Wujun, Constructing Hongqiao Terminal, Serve Regional Economy [J].
Shanghai Airport，2006(3):56-58.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 17
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The Object-Oriented Methodology of Traffic Microscope Simulation System for

Generating Vehicles from OD Matrix

Peng JING12 and Zhicai JUAN1 and Xuxun LIN1

1.
Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University,
Shanghai, 200052, China; PH(86)21-52301396; email: juanzhicai@163.com
2.
School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang
Jiangsu, 212013, China; PH(86)511-88614956; email: jingpeng_ch@sjtu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Traffic simulation is an important tool for modeling the operations of
dynamic traffic systems and it can help analyze the causes and potential solutions of
traffic problems such as congestion and traffic safety. Microscopic simulation
system provides a detailed representation of the traffic process. This makes
microscopic simulation system more suitable for evaluation of complicated traffic
facilities and Intelligent Transportation Systems that often consists of complex
traffic management, safety and information systems. Generally producing vehicles is
the first step followed by the start of the simulation which is one of the most
important components in microscopic simulation system.
This paper analyzes models and demand of traffic microscope simulation for
producing vehicles, and design the structure of the simulation system based on OD.
After preparing the OD models and produce vehicles, the system applies the theory
of GIS to generate traffic network, using Floyd-Warshall algorithm to build the route
path library. Finally implemented the distribution of headway by function-transfer
method. The simulation system was programmed with the idea of Object-Oriented.
This paper proposed an object-oriented method (OOM) for microscope
traffic simulation system which focused on producing of vehicles. The paper
presents in details the basics and advanced features of object-oriented programming
(OOP) in the context of traffic flow. The sample C++ code is discussed in detail on
the implementation of OOP features. The main contribution of this research work is
the development of software objects for various components such as vehicle,
network, path and distribution of headway. This software can be adopted for
microscope traffic simulation programs, in general.
Keywords: traffic Microscope Simulation; producing vehicles; object-orient; OD

1. INTRODUCTION
In recent years, simulation has emerged as an alternative tool to evaluate the
performance of traffic controls and selecting the appropriate design. Simulation
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studies can also be used to analyze the robustness of a design by evaluating a range
of scenarios, as well as calibrating control parameters ( Hasan, M., Jha, M., and
Ben-Akiva, M., 2002). The existing traffic simulation models can be subdivided into
three classes: macroscopic, mesoscopic and microscopic. The macroscopic models
represent traffic as a flow, whereas the microscopic models describe the behavior of
individual drivers, their vehicles and their interactions. The mesoscopic model class
contains a number of methods which representing traffic that hold the middle
between the macroscopic and microscopic (Burghout, 2004).
Generally, initializing vehicles is the first step and one of the most important
components in microscopic simulation system, which is usually became the start of
the simulation (Ren, Hai and feng, 2001). When vehicles enter the microscopic
network, the initial values for speed and headway need to be adjusted in accordance
with other traffic downstream (and upstream). Otherwise immediate deceleration (or
acceleration) will occur, which will affect the traffic conditions upstream. Adjusting
vehicle parameters is important for standalone microscopic simulation models, as it
affects the capacity in the entrance of microscopic networks. This is very critical as
in most applications of microscopic models the vehicles are loaded at centroids
(Burghout and Wahlstedt, 2007).
In traditional programming procedure, the behavior of the system is
completely decoupled from the characteristics or attributes of the system. It reduces
the one-to-one matching between the physical system and the software model. In
fact, this is where the object-oriented modeling can offer a better solution. Software
object in object-oriented modeling represents the physical components, which build
the physical system. Object-Oriented programming (OOP) has gained popularity in
the development of scientific codes (Fenves, 1990). The programmer produces more
intelligible, maintainable and expandable codes with less effort and at less expense
using powerful and flexible characteristics of OOP.
This paper deals with traffic simulation system, which was implemented
using object-oriented programming and modeling as specified by unified modeling
language (UML) (Booch, Rumbaugh and Jacobson, 2005). UML is a visual
language for specifying, constructing, and documenting the artifacts of systems
UML can be used with all processes, throughout the development lifecycle, and
across different implementation technologies. However, the issue of microscopic
traffic simulation for vehicle producing in object-oriented environment has been
largely neglected until now. At the same time, publications and documentations of
microscopic traffic models provide very little or no information on how ones can
deal with this issue. The main objective of this paper is to present a general
framework for the implementation of traffic microscope simulation for vehicle
producing that satisfies the various traffic management requirements. The paper
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intensively studied the traffic network, OD matrix, ways of alterative path and
headway distribution. Reusability and expandability of the code using existing
classes is a feature of the work.
2. SIMULATION FRAMEWORK
The modeling framework has been described below. The simulation model
uses the interval scanning technique with fixed increment of time. The vehicles are
represented as rectangular blocks on the road space. The basic logical aspects
involved in the simulation model are illustrated in the flow diagram as shown in
Figure 1.
Generate stage

Traffic network OD matrix Vehicle module

Driving route Producing vehicle

Operation stage

Figure 1. Simulation system framework.

The modeling of traffic simulation for producing vehicle consists of the
following five major sequential steps: (1) generating traffic network with GIS, (2)
producing traffic demand as OD; (3) constructing vehicle module, (4) building
driving route path library, (5) producing vehicles. Traffic network is the key to
traffic simulation for producing vehicles that can find the correct position by
tracking the link of the network. The centroids can be selected from the points in
network and can be used to construct the structure of OD for generating traffic
network. Furthermore, if the OD flow is time dependant, the OD can be used for
varying traffic assignment. Vehicle module determines the size and parameters of
vehicles on the traffic network. Shortest path between OD pairs in the network can
be determined by Floyd-Warshall algorithm and loaded into the driving path library
for producing vehicles.
3．GENERATION STAGE
The basic feature of OOP is the abstract data type. An abstract data type
encapsulates a collection of data and operations on that data. The mechanism that
achieves this in C++ is known as class (Gowri, Venkatesan and Sivanandan, 2009).
The OOP technique offers a highly sophisticated versatile programming
environment for developing a large scale and/or complex software system, This is
due to the facts that it has inherent features of encapsulation, inheritance and
polymorphism (Booch, Maksimchuk, Engle, Young, Conallen and Houston, 2007).
OOP has the following benefit such as easy maintenance, enhanced modification
and reusability of the programme. In this section, UML was used as the modeling
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method for traffic simulation system for producing vehicles. At first, the UML use
Case Model to identify the actors in the system and their functions, such as vehicle,
traffic and queue etc. The system class is described in this section.
3.1 Traffic Network
The traffic network is represented by a graph that is divided into several
geographical layers with methodology of GIS. According to the demand of traffic
simulation, the network consists of node layer, link layer, lane layer, zone layer,
transit layer and picture layer as shown in Figure 2. The nodes in the node layer are
the points where multiple traffic streams join or diverge, such as intersections, on /
off ramps, as well as origins or destinations of traffic. Links in the link layer
represent the roadway between such nodes, and are unidirectional. This means that a
regular street is usually represented by two links, one for each direction. The lanes
on a road are not represented separately. Nodes have usually multiple incoming and
outgoing links, and are considered as the main cause of frictions in the traffic
streams. Zone layer is used to represent traffic zone and make the position of
centroids. When a geographical map is imported into the simulation system, the map
is loaded in the picture layer.

Transit layer

Lane layer

Zone layer

Link layer

Picture layer

Figure 2. Traffic network layers.

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Figure 3. Class diagram for graph.

The most important and fundamental layers are node, link and area. The base
class Graph defines the conceptual model of the network by specifying the common
attributes and actions as shown in Figure 3. However, all the member variables and
functions of the class are not shown in this figure. Node, Link and Zone are
specialized classes of Graph class whose operations are identical or similar. Hence,
these classes (Node, Link, etc.) are inherited from Graph class. The characteristics of
graph, such as ID, LayerID, Color, etc. are declared as a protected member data in
Graph class. A protected member data can be accessed by member functions of its
own class and by any class derived from its own class. Each derived class (e.g., Link)
has unique member data (Name, Length, AvgSpeed, etc.).
3.2 Od Matrix
The OD matrix contains the vehicle volumes need to be produced by each O-
D pair. The main requirements for implementing OD module needs to be satisfied in
order to describe traffic demand properly. This requirement includes:
(1) OD structure should contain several OD matrixes with the same dimension
sorted by time, which will be ready for dynamic traffic assignment and
simulation.
(2) When simulation system is running on a network, only one OD structure can be
activated unless simulation system is developing a multi-mode travel.
(3) Unite of flow between OD pairs should be easily converted for meeting the need
of traffic simulation in different phase.
(4) The IDs contained in the row and column headings of the OD matrix must match
with the node IDs in the network. The vehicles which are on the OD matrix but
its IDs are not in the network, end up not being produced.
Class ODStruct defines the prototype or blueprint of elements of OD pairs.
The class diagram for ODStruct class is shown in Figure 4. The common attributes
of ODStruct class are origin, destination, NodeFromID, NodeToID and value, which
meet the 4th requirement of OD module. Class Matrix is used to store OD matrix in a
data structure. The class MatrixEdit with member functions of InsertNewOD(),
DelODWithODID() and LoadMatrix() is defined to manage OD data for producing
vehicle in simulation system.

Figure 4. Class diagram for OD.

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3.3 Vehicle
The super class Mass defines the conceptual model of the objects that can
move in the network by specifying the common attributes (member data) and actions
(member functions) as shown in Figure 5. The class Vector3D is used to define three
dimensional vectors that representing direction and position. The member data
variables pos of class Mass represent the position of the object by coordinates.
Similarly, the data variables such as vel, force and m represent the characteristics of
the object. A virtual super class Mass, also called an abstract class, cannot have
instances of its own; this class has constructors (object can initialize itself when it is
first created) and virtual destructors (to ensure deal location of memory of derived
class objects properly).

Figure 5. Class diagram for vehicle.

Vehicle is a specialized class of Mass (abstract class) whose operations are
identical or similar. Similarly, the class Vehicle is inherited from Mass class. The
characteristics of objects on road, such as velocity, mass, force, etc. are declared as
protected member data in Mass class. A protected member data can be accessed by
member functions of its own class and by any class derived from its own class. Each
derived class has unique member data and member functions. The member functions
of Vehicle class: CarFollowing() and LaneChanging() are responsible for major
operations of vehicles, such as movement, overtaking and car following,
respectively. The data items of an object of VehiclePara class (length, width, high,
etc.) are common to all objects on that class. These data items are declared as static,
so memory space is allocated only once for such data items, no matter how many
objects are created in the class.
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4. ROUTING PATH
If the producing vehicle can run on the right road, the traffic simulation
system should provide two kinds of driving route paths, one is link path and the
other is lane path. The link path consists of a sequence of links in link layer and can
guide vehicles from Origin to Destination. The lane path consists of lanes in lane
layer by guiding the producing vehicles to choose the lanes between the nodes
correctly.
4.1 Link Path
The link path describes the behavior of choosing route path for the producing
vehicle. It can be represented by route choice models or route switching models.
Route choice model and Route switching model are used to capture drivers’ route
choice decisions and response to traffic information (Yang, Koutsopoulos and Ben-
Akiva, 2000). Depending on the situation, a route choice model or a route switching
model may be used to update a vehicle’s path.
The routes for vehicles without pre-specified paths are generated at each
intersection using the route choices model. Instead of choosing their paths at each
intersection, vehicles can also be assigned pre-specified paths to their destination by
the route switching model. The simulation system read a list of predefined paths
from a link path library. Each path is defined by a unique ID and a list of links
involved. The expected travel time on the path is considered. The route switching
model defined below is used for choosing an initial route for vehicles:
exp(Vs (t ) )
p( s | r , t ) = (1)
i∈S r
∑ exp(Vi (t ))
Where p(s|r,t) is probability to choose path s for a vehicle that expects to arrive at
the decision node at time t using path r; Sr is set of available paths from node j to the
driver’s destination; Vi(t) is systematic utility of choosing path i which is a function
of expected time on path i at time t.
Based on the probabilities calculated from (1), a random number is drawn to
determine whether the vehicle should stay on its current path or switch to an
alternative path. The link path library mentioned above consists of list of shortest
link paths between OD pairs. This can be generated by Floyd-Warshall algorithm.
The Floyd–Warshall algorithm compares all possible paths through the graph
between each pair of vertices. It is able to do this with only V3
comparisons(Papadimitriou and Sideri, 1999). This is remarkable considering that
there may be up to V2 edges in the graph, and every combination of edges is tested.
It does so by incrementally improving an estimate on the shortest path between two
vertices, until the estimate reaches the optimal point. The diagram of class
CLinkPath is shown in Figure 6.
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The class CPathEdit is defined to manage path library, it consists of lane

path library and link path library and can be generated by class CComFlodyPath.
The member data DesMatrix of Class CComFlodyPath whose data type Vector3D is
mentioned before represents the matrix with the weights of the links. The DisMatrix
represents the matrix with the predecessor pointer which is used to extract the final
shortest path. The link path library is stored in the data structure of the instance of
class CLinkPathLib. The member data LinkIDArray is used to store the sequences of
links which composed with the link path library.
CPathEdit

1 -LinkPathLib : CLinkPathLib*
-LanePathLib : CLanePathLib*
-ComFlody : CComFlodyPath
+GetLinkPath() : CLinkPathLib* 1
+GetLanePath() : CLanePathLib*
+IniFlody()

* *1 *

CComFlodyPath CLanePathLib CLinkPathLib

-NodeNum : int -LaneLayerID : int -LinkLayerID : int
-DecMatrix : Vector3D* -LaneNodesNum : int -LinkNodesNum : int
-DisMatrix : Vector3D* -LaneNodeLayerID : int -LinkNodeLayerID
-NodeIDArray : int* -LaneIDArray : int* -LinkIDArray : int*
-CentroidArray : int* -LinkID : int +GetLanePath()
+GenPath() +GetLanePath() +SetLanePath()
+GetPath() +SetLanePath()
+SetPara()

Figure 6. The diagram of path class.

4.2 Lane Path
As is shown in Figure 6, the sequence of the paths between two nodes
(intersections) in the lane path library is also generated by Floyd-Warshall algorithm.
What should be mentioned is that the member data LaneNodesNum of class
CLanePathLib differs from LinkNodesNum of class CLinkPathLib. The nodes in
lane layer represents the connections between the upstream or downstream lanes
while with link layer represent the intersections.
5. DISTRIBUTION MODEL
For generating the traffic flow in which the headway and vehicle’s speed are
specified distribution; the random variables specified distribution is needed by the
function-transfer method. When the vehicle’s departure is Poisson distribution and
traffic flow and density are small, the headway between two vehicles is randomly
drawn from negative exponential distribution in term of characteristic of traffic flow.
And Shifted Exponential Distribution is often used to describe the behavior of the
following cars. However, Weibull distribution has been proposed to overcome the
monotonic decreasing of shifted exponential distribution. Furthermore, W. Lerzbach
proposed Erlang distribution to explain the existing fact that the probability of the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 25
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little headway in queue is very small (Salter, 1983). Therefore, the decision of
choosing a distribution for headway should be made in a certain traffic situation.
5.1 Random Number
The mixed linear congruential method is proposed to generate the random
number which is uniformly distributed between [0, 1]:
xi +1 = (axi + c) mod m
xi +1 (2)
u i +1 =
m
Where a and c are carefully chosen integers; m is the modulus; Ui is a
sequence of random numbers that fall between zero and one; xi is the seed value.
The following relationship can be derived from equation (2):
ax + c
xi = (axi −1 + c) − [ i −1 ] ⋅ m (3)
m
The values of a, c, m and xi have a great effect on the statistical characteristic
of the random number.
5.2. Negative Exponential Distribution
As mentioned in the previous sections, the random headway can be
represented by negative exponential distribution:
⎧λe − λx , x ≥ 0
f ( x) = ⎨ (4)
⎩0 , other
Where λ>0 is the parameter of the distribution, often called the rate
parameter. The random headway is randomly drawn from equation (4) by function-
transfer method:
1
x = − ln r (5)
λ
Where r is a random number uniformly distributed between zero and one.
The object-oriented modeling of generating vehicle is shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7. The diagram of generating vehicle class.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 26
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The class CFtVehStart defines the virtual facilities of producing vehicles in a

specified position of lane layer. The membership data VehClass shows the vehicle’s
class while FunType represents the type of distribution function. Those two data
items can be chosen by users from Graphic User Interface (GUI). The data items
pVehCen is a pointer to the class CVehGen generating the random headway and
speed having specified distribution. The membership functions (NegExp(),
ShiftNegExp(), WeiBull(), etc.) is used to make random gap time between producing
vehicles. The assumption that, the speed of producing vehicle is normally distributed
is made in the simulation system. Therefore, MeanSpeed and VarSpeed represents
the parameters of normal distribution.
6. SIMULATION CLASS
The major class CSimulator controls the flow of different stages of the
simulation process. Therefore, this abstract class is the core of the software
architecture. The class CSimulator defines the attributes (clock_time, scan_interval
and total simulation time (TST)) and actions. The pure virtual function,
UpdateProcess() is declared in the CSimulator class. This function is overridden in
the derived classes, which drives different stages of simulation process, such as
movement and animation of traffic flow based on type of traffic simulation. The
method, UpdateClock() gets the clock time, scan interval and total simulation time
from the user. The sequence diagram for producing vehicle process is shown in
Figure 8.
7. MODEL VALIDATION AND APPLICATION
The simulation model for producing vehicles was validated based on
frequency of traffic flow in two hours. The field data from Zhefeng’s study (Zhifeng,
Jia and Yue, 2003) was selected for validating purposes. Since, the traffic flow in
field data was Poisson distribution, then the negative exponential distributed
function was selected to produce vehicles in the simulation system. Statistical
hypothesis test revealed that there is no significant difference (0.05 significance
level) between the observed and simulated values of frequency of traffic flow (Table
1). C++ and OpenGL were applied to implement the simulation system for
producing vehicles.
8. CONCLUSION
In this paper, a flexible object-oriented model has been proposed for
simulating producing vehicles. The object-oriented methodology enhances the code
reusability, modularity, maintainability, and reduces the development time.
Encapsulation, inheritance, polymorphism and other features of OOP were
incorporated in the model. UML has been implemented in traffic simulation system,
which creates a system that is much more efficient while reducing the development
of time. The validation of producing vehicles model, based on the frequency of
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traffic, indicates that the model is satisfactorily replicating the field conditions. The
developed model for producing vehicles can be effectively used for microscope
traffic simulation studies under various roadway and traffic conditions. It is
proposed to develop the model further to incorporate the effects of network,
different geometries, traffic, and traffic control conditions to build a comprehensive
software package for simulating traffic.

sim : CSimulator start : CFtVehStart ODflow : CMatrixEdit veh : Vehicle path : CPathEdit

ActiveOD()

OD matrix address

GetStartPara()

headway flow speed

GetLinkPath

link path address

UpdatePara()

GetLanePath()

lane path address

CheckGapTime(Vehicle*)

gap time not enough

InActivate()

gap time enough

Activate()

Figure 8. Sequence diagram for producing vehicle logic.

Table 1. Comparison of observed and simulated frequency.

Traffic flow Observed Observed Simulated Simulated Difference Squared
Veh/15s frequency number of frequency number of deviation
vehicles vehicles
0 0 0 1 0 -1 1
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 2 2 4 -1 1
3 3 9 3 9 0 0
4 5 20 6 24 -1 1
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5 8 40 7 35 1 1
6 10 60 9 54 1 1
7 11 77 13 91 -2 4
8 10 80 11 88 -1 1
9 8 72 10 90 -2 4
10 7 70 8 80 -1 1
11 5 55 3 33 2 4
>12 2 24 1 12 1 1
Total 70 509 74 520

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research is sponsored by the Chinese National High-tech R&D Program
(863 Program: 2007AA11Z203).

REFERENCES
[1] Hasan, M., Jha, M., and Ben-Akiva, M. (2002). "Evaluation of ramp control
algorithms using microscopic traffic simulation." Transportation Research
Part C: Emerging Technologies, 10(3), 229-256.
[2] Burghout, W. (2004). "Hybrid microscopic-mesoscopic traffic simulation."
Doctoral Dissertation, Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
[3] Ren, C. H., Hai, Y. L., and feng, Z. G. (2001). "Research on the traffic simulation
of second class highway in cold area." China Journal of Highway and
Transport(03), 93-95.
[4] Burghout, W., and Wahlstedt, J. (2007). "Hybrid traffic simulation with adaptive
signal control." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the
Transportation Research Board, 1999(-1), 191-197.
[5] Fenves, G. (1990). "Object-oriented programming for engineering software
development." Engineering with Computers, 6(1), 1-15.
[6] Booch, G., Rumbaugh, J., and Jacobson, I. (2005). Unified Modeling Language
User Guide, The (Addison-Wesley Object Technology Series), Addison-
Wesley Professional.
[7] Gowri, A., Venkatesan, K., and Sivanandan, R. (2009). "Object-oriented
methodology for intersection simulation model under heterogeneous traffic
conditions." Advances in Engineering Software, 40(10), 1000-1010.
[8] Booch, G., Maksimchuk, R., Engle, M., Young, B., Conallen, J., and Houston, K.
(2007). "Object-oriented analysis and design with applications."
[9] Yang, Q., Koutsopoulos, H., and Ben-Akiva, M. (2000). "Simulation laboratory
for evaluating dynamic traffic management systems." Transportation
Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1710(-1),
122-130.
[10] Papadimitriou, C., and Sideri, M. (1999). "On the floyd-warshall algorithm for
logic programs." The Journal of Logic Programming, 41(1), 129-137.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 29
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[11] Salter, R. (1983). Highway traffic analysis and design, Macmillan.

[12] Zhifeng, M., Jia, Y., and Yue, S. (2003). " Poisson Distribution Based
Mathematic Model of Producing Vehicles in Microscopic Traffic
Simulator." Journal of Wuhan University of Tethnology(01), 73-76.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 30
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Study on Coordinating Development of Railway Station and the Land Use –

Discussion about P&R and TOD

Shuai DAI 1, Huapu LU 2, Ming LUO 3

1 Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, PH (010) 6277-2615;

FAX (010) 6279-5339; email: dsinly@gmail.com
2 Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, PH (010) 6279-5339;
FAX (010) 6279-5339; email: luhp@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
3 Beijing Sustainable Development Center; PH (010) 6484-1457-833; FAX
(010)6484-1456; email: pheobes@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
Transit Oriented Development (TOD) and Park and Ride (P&R) are very
important theories and methods used in urban transportation planning. At first the
paper analyzes the relationship, effects and applicability of TOD and P&R in Chinese
urban planning. Then, it demonstrates some impacts brought by the two methods to
urban space layout and land use. At the end, research results are proposed to the
government and technical staff whereby it can be used as reference and support tool
for policy decisions and technical projects in practices.

1. INTRODUCTION
Urban space layout is largely resulting from transportation and land use
interaction. In general, people believed that transport systems are representing supply
systems whereby land use representing the demander (MA, 2007). The changes in
transportation planning and construction usually affect the transportation system
accessibility that leads to the changes in the land function and intensity. Therefore,
land use and urban transportation are closely related especially in railway mode. It is
very important to deeply understand their relationship and how to implement the
principle of "resource-saving, environment-friendly" in urban planning and practices.
TOD and P&R are two important kinds of planning methods in the current urban
transportation planning, with the aim of reducing traffic congestion by encouraging
public transit. However, these two methods differ in terms of land use characteristic,
land development mode and development intensity, its applicability, interaction and
influence. Currently, little research has been conducted in this area. Therefore, this
paper will discuss the above-mentioned issues in more details by analyzing the
layout of the urban space layout and the impact of land use.

2. IMPACT SCOPE OF RAILWAY STATION DEVELOPMENT

In principle, if the attractiveness of a railway station is not affected by other
stations, then attractiveness range in theory should be based on the railway station as
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a centre of a circle with infinite radius. But its attractiveness will be continuously
decreased with increasing distance (radius). Therefore, in practice there is existence a
critical attraction means when the attraction is very small compared to the critical
value, as a result the attractiveness of the railway in this station is approximately to
zero. Thus, the scope attractiveness of a separate station can be approximated as a
limited space which is the railway station as centre of a circle. But in fact, can be
affected by utilization and development, the radiation of the railway station and
attractiveness can not be simply regarded as a circle.

2.1 TOD
2.1.1 Spatial Scales
TOD is a compact layout, functional mixed development model that use railway
or public transit station as the center. Through the rational design and high-intensity
mixed land use development that discouraging people from using personal transport
and instead to use public transit. Railway station as the center of a circle and certain
distance as radius of the circle are usually methods to limit the application scope of
TOD. MA Qiang (2003) on his findings demonstrates that, most people are willing to
walk in the range of within 150 meters where 40 percent of people are willing to
walk 300 meters and only less than 10 percent of people are willing to walk 800
meters. Therefore, people usually choose to use a rail transit and walk for 5-15
minutes for the distance about 400-800 m radius as the TOD spatial range. Figure 1.
Shows the TOD spatial range.

Figure1. TOD Spatial Scales.

2.1.2 Land Use Ranges
The influence scope of TOD should consider the scope of the land use areas for
TOD to make sense. Research data shows that alterations regional for TOD should be
at least 10 acres (40000 m2 with a radius about 110 meters), for new development
areas should be up to 40 acres (16 million m2 with a radius about 220 meters). For
example, San Diego Barrio Logan stations planned 10.9 acres (4.4 million m2 land)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 32
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to provide adequate public transit for passengers while Hillsboro New Orenco station
construction planning covers an area of up to 200 acres (800,000 m2).
The land use density and functional diversity is one of the most important factors
to ensure the success of TOD. According to one research conducted in United States
and Canada (1995), for 19 cities with 261 railway stations, survey data analysis
found that the utilization rate of railway and population density had a positive
correlation which increases by 10percent and 6 percent respectively. Other research
finds that 12000 jobs can be well managed around the railway station within the
800-meter radius.

2.1.3 The Characteristics of China's TOD Application

China's application for TOD environmental conditions is very different from
other country due to its population density and different stages of urban development.
First of all, China's urban population density is higher even if the residential
suburbanization population density is still higher than the most cities abroad. Many
industry facilities often can not keep up with transportation requirement and
motorists and non-motorists mixed are quite serious. In addition, the layout of urban
services and infrastructure are too dispersive and it is very difficult to form
reasonable transportation system that the inhabitants live that can be centralize
heavily in urban center (ZHENG Mingyuan, 2006). Lack of residential facilities and
low levels of road construction and transportation management results in crowded
buses and higher traffic jam. As a result, more people use personal vehicle which
again increases the congestion and make things even more badly.
The use of TOD mode in China requires not to substantial increase residential
density but how to combine the land use and public transport to provide sustainable
transportation system. Hong Kong is successful example of using TOD. It has
already formed a mode that is railway station as the core with the dynamics
development which promote periphery land development that use operation mode to
achieve the government, developers and urban residents the "win-win situation".
However, TOD applications are still in planning or implementation stage for most of
the mainland cities.

2.2 Park and Ride

In general, P&R system is auxiliary facilities system that is located outside the
urban central area that includes the railway station and bus stop. Park and Ride
system use the lower fees or free transfer to provide parking space for private cars,
bicycles, etc. This is a concessionary public transport fares policy that encourages
passengers to use public transport into urban center area in order to reduce personal
vehicles from entering in the center area so as to minimize traffic congestion.
P&R in different countries and regions have different effects and functions. For
example, United States and Canada, comprises of large and medium cities with lower
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population density. Therefore, the main purpose is to serve the commuter travel, and
provide travel efficiency by reducing long-distance car travel and minimizing urban
pollution. European countries (Britain, France, etc.) have many ancient cities where
the old town or the central area transportation infrastructure supply capacity is
limited and traffic congestion is very serious. It needs to take a series of measures
such as traffic demand management to alleviate the old city or the central area traffic
pressure. P&R can be one of the most effective methods for those cities to conduct
traffic demand management. P&R can help to optimize the structure of transportation
modes, minimize traffic congestions and also increased travel convenience for the
cars travel outside the city.

2.2.1 Spatial Scales

In Seattle, Parsons Brinckerhoff (1997) described parabolic P&R facilities the
scope of affection that had summarized and analyzed 31 P&R facilities to determine
the parameters of the parabolic shape as shown in Figure 2. The covered area for
P&R facilities is a parabolic region with P&R parking in the center of the circle. The
region is into two parts in which 85 percent is the affected areas on the downstream
flow (the destination direction and P&R in the opposite direction) with attract
distance of about 3.2 - 4 km. The upstream flow (the destination direction and P & R
direction is the same) has the attract distance about 16.1 km. The total demand 50%
from the sphere of influence described scope and the radius of the circle which is
about 3.2 - 4 km.

85%

50%
CBD
P&R

4km 16.1km
Figure 2. P&R Attraction Scale.
2.2.2 Land Use Ranges
P&R ground parking in general can accommodate 300-600 parking spaces. If in
accordance with Beijing's ‘Public Parking Engineering Construction Norms(2008)’
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as the standard: “Public ground parking construction area calculation according to

the standard car parking spaces, ground parking (not including the roadside parks)
land area is 25 m2 / pcu-30 m2 / pcu, P&R the area is generally 7500 m2-18000 m2”.
Public parking service radius (walking distance) should not be greater than 500m.
The largest not more than 1000m, if the parking too large it will creates the following
questions:
¾ too long walking distance will make the P&R facilities less attractive
¾ too large number of in and out parking cars will affect peripheral traffic
order

3 THE FUNCTION OF P&R FOR URBAN DEVELOPMENT

3.1 Maintain a Strong Downtown
With regard to whether the P&R will make a strong city center is still a
controversial topic. The powerful city center should have the life quality of high
efficiency, high energy, and high-quality radiation. However from stand point of
P&R facilities system, it does not make a strong city center, but it will contribute to
promote this kind of life quality. There are mains three aspects as follows:
Firstly, alleviating the city center traffic congestion will need high efficient
working transportation system. The majority of P&R system, their main target is to
alleviate the city pressure. Parkhurst (2001) shows that, according to Europe and
United States experience with city building construction, proves that the P&R
facilities have important positive contribution to reduce the city pressure and this has
been witnessed by most scholars as well.
Secondly, it enhances the city center accessibility, bringing more commuters and
increasing the vitality of the central area. P&R plays an important role in
transportation supply by involving public transit to improve the city center
transportation performance.
Thirdly, to expand the impaction area and enhancing the central area radiation,
cars and public transit transfers that is greatly expansion the services scope of the
public transit. Important public transit corridors are generally introduction of the city
center and the scope of public transit services expansion make the scope of the center
areas corresponding expansion its central position further strengthened.

3.2 Promote the Formation of New District

P&R can bring more people for commercial facilities and at early stages it can
help to speed up the formation of new districts. However, in some land use planning
and policy conditions the public transit plays the key role in promoting the formation
of new district not the P&R. The P&R function is to increase public transit passenger
flow so that the public transit can have higher service operations that will make the
region more attractive to construction and passenger flow. The public transit and land
use produce output-based cycle and eventually promoting the new area formed to
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guide urban development. If the new area is very attractive, with high-density
development but making the public transport sufficiently source, then function of
P&R is weak. Therefore, the P&R main function is positive to guide the land use and
help to form new districts in a new area in the early development stage.

3.3 Breed the Urban Expansion

The stronger mobility, the possibility of urban expansion is higher. In the same
level of railway transportation services the different access methods will show
different development status around the railway station. Walking as the main access
method due to accessibility constraints, the economic activity surrounding should be
closely around the station with high-density development. The public transit which
connects the object of the surrounding land accessibility has improvement in a
certain degrees and the impact of economic activity space appropriate expansion.
Cars as an access object because of its mobility are rapidly increasing that and
greatly enhance the scope of activities while slowly decreasing around the
accessibility of land that is contiguous development and increase the possibility of
distantly spread.

3.4 P&R Model for the TOD Impaction

Parking around the railway station, the main objective for the car users supply
convenience of public transport is to attract the rural population far away from the
station and to create the beneficial space environment which is for the traffic rather
than the TOD development necessary walking environment. Therefore, the station
and the surrounding areas which is TOD development potential are separated in
space by the station around the parking. Todd Litman (2003) shows that the railway
transportation facilities had not yet been played fully the role of changing the urban
development. The large number of railway stations is surrounded by a large parking
which are reducing the quality of the environment for walking. For example, Beijing
Tiantongyuan Railway Station has already used P&R that was made around the
railway station and the suburbs surrounding residents more convenient and efficient
to reach the city center. In some degrees this way is promoting the urban centers area
more concentrated. Tiantongyuan not only focus on single residential land use
development mode but also focus on employment, housing, commercial and mixed
land development mode, the person who entering the city center will be likely
isolated outside the city center.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 36
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center

city
periphery

suburb

Figure 3. Attraction Scope of Railway Station in Different Regions.

4 CONCLUSIONS
With the development of the city from the development strategy view adjustment
the existing structure is to adopt a "fill-style" planning methods to turn the current
number of parking spaces into a medium-sized residential, commercial, office
buildings etc. It will closely integrate the current railway station with surrounding
land use. The public facility should provide an attractive open space for walking and
bicycle traffic facility. P&R can be used as a transition method that is temporary
using not only according with the conditions of the TOD development areas but also
reserve as the future land supply space for the short-term railway passenger traffic.
TOD development mode will be formed to gain time for the local development and
mixed land use in long-term.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to thank the guest editors and two anonymous referees
for their helpful comments and constructive suggestions on an earlier version of the
abstract. The work described in this paper was jointly supported by National
High-Tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (Grant
No.2007AA11Z202 and No.2007AA11Z233) and National Science Foundation
（NO.50908124）.
REFERENCE
MA Qiang; A Road to “Smart Growth” From Auto-Dependent City to
Transit-Oriented City. China Architecture&Building Press.Beijing. Aug,2007.
MA Qiang; Recent Studies on Transit-oriented Development in North America,
Urban Planning Overseas. 2003 Vol.18, No.5.P45-50；
Parsons Brinckerhoff Inc. Park-and-Ride Planning and Design Guidelines. One Penn
Plaza.New York:New York 10119,1997
Parkhurst,G, Dedicated bus-based park and ride services and the demand for public
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 37
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transport. Economic & social research council transport studies unit

publication, 2001,5.
Public Parking Engineering Construction Norms DB11/T595-2008
Todd Litman, Evaluating Criticism of Smart Growth, VTPI(www.vtpi.org).2003
ZHENG Mingyuan; Rail transit times in urban development. China Railway
Publishing House; Beijing;2006; P59.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 38
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Finding the Connectivity Bottlenecks in Shanghai Road Network Based on

Betweenness

Yuan XUE1, Wei SUN2 and Xiang HE3

1
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
College of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an
Road, Shanghai 201804, China; PH (86) 21-6958-3775; email:
xue.yuan@yahoo.com
2
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
College of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an
Road, Shanghai 201804, China
3
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland,
3109 Kim Engineering Building, College Park, MD 20742; PH (301)233-6361;
email: xhe123@umd.edu

ABSTRACT
In urban road network, efforts should be made to avoid congestions on some
key roads and intersections not only because more vehicles are involved but also
because they block more connections of important zones. The concept of
Betweenness in complex network theory is used in this paper to measure the role of
certain intersection and road section in keeping the connectivity of key zones.
Analysis on Shanghai urban road network shows that congestion on a little
proportion of road sections and intersections may cause large-scale connection
problems. And such key road sections and intersections in Shanghai road network
are found and illustrated with the help of GIS software. At the end of this paper the
result is proved to be stable and representative.

INTRODUCTION
There is a wide agreement that traffic congestion is one of the most serious
and challenging issues in metropolises all around the world. With the limited
resources and budget, traffic engineers are required to reduce the impact of traffic
congestions in a more efficient and effective way. From network point of view,
congestion blocks or weakens the connection among important districts in urban
area, thus impairs the social and economic activities. Therefore, finding the key
intersections and road sections in network connectivity perspective, preventing them
from congestion by traffic control and management solutions seems to be an
effective way to avoid serious consequences.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 39
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Under the objective of finding the key road section and key intersections,
this paper makes use of the betweenness measures of complex network theory to
measure the importance of each road and intersection unit on connectivity. And
Transcad, a GIS software, is used to help analyzing and displaying the result.

METHODOLOGY
In large complex networks, Betweenness measures the role of a vertex or an
edge played in the paths between any two given nodes. The value represents the
importance of the vertex or the edge in network connectivity and network
accessibility (Freeman, 1977). The widely used index Betweenness Centrality (BC)
counts the fraction of shortest paths going through a given node or link. For a graph
G = (V , E ) with n vertices, Betweenness Centrality CB (v) for vertex v is

σ st (v)
C B (v ) = ∑
s ≠ v ≠ t∈V σ st
 
,　 (1)

where σ st is the total number of shortest paths from s to t and σ st (v) is the number

of shortest paths from s to t going through v . BC for edge is the same in

calculating as for vertex. BC is a very important measure in centrality analysis,
which scales as the number of pairs of vertices ( s ≠ t ≠ v ). This can be normalized
by dividing through the number of pairs of vertices not including v , which is
(n − 1)(n − 2) for directed graphs and (n − 1)(n − 2) / 2 for undirected graphs (Goh et
al., 2003). However, in most cases there is only one shortest path between s and t ,
so we can simply use the total number of all the shortest paths going through v to
measure the importance of such vertices. In this paper we call it Betweenness Value
(BV), the Betweenness Value B(v) for vertex v is
B (v ) = ∑
s ≠ v ≠ t∈V
σ st (v) , (2)

where all the parameters share the same meaning as in the equation of BC.
Analyzing BC and BV in a graph involves calculating the shortest paths
between all the vertices on a graph. However, in urban road network drivers do not
always follow the shortest path. Instead, he or she will use a more reasonable route
base on a more comprehensive consideration such as reliability and traffic condition.
So in this paper we uses expected route instead of shortest path. Expected route
between every two zones is derived according to the following steps:
Searching for the recommended driving route between every two zones by
two most popular local commercial way finding website: www.ddmap.com and
ditu.baidu.com;
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 40
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Comparing the routes recommended by these two websites manually, and

then choosing the better one.
By importing the recommended driving path into GIS, we are able to know
how many expected driving routes pass through a certain road section or intersection.
Thus can get Betweenness Value (BV) of each road sections as well as intersections
and conduct the analysis.

SHANGHAI URBAN ROAD NETWORK AND KEY ZONES

The electrical Shanghai urban road network map provided by Shanghai
Yootu Traffic Information Technology Company consists of 2898 road sections,
which includes all the express ways, arterial roads, secondary roads and most of
important branches inside Outer Ring Road (A20). Table 1 shows the quantity of
road sections of each road grade in this electrical map.

Table 1. Quantity of each type of roads in Shanghai Electrical Road map.

Road Type Road Type in Electrical Map Count
Elevated Expressway 234
Expressway
Ground Expressway 148
Primary Arterial 207
Arterial Road Arterial 943
Cross-river Tunnel 5
Secondary Road Secondary Road 271
Branch Road Branch 1090

Referencing to Shanghai Urban General Planning, we select 34 key zones in

Shanghai urban area, which includes 7 city centers and sub-centers, 4 transportation
terminals, 6 commercial areas, 4 development zones, 12 residential areas and one
Shanghai World Expo area. Key zone names and corresponding zone ID numbers
are listed in Table 2. These key zones are the most active and developed districts
with high traffic demand. In order to find expected routes between every two zones,
we use centroids to represent their accurate locations. Centroids of zones are set in
either the landmarks or centers of these areas. Location of zones and corresponding
centroids are showed in Figure 1.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 41
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Table 2. 34 Key zones in Shanghai and their ID numbers.

Zone Type District name Zone IDs
City centers and Lujiazui center, Pentagonal Square, People 1, 2, 5, 20, 10,
Sub-centers Square, The Bund, Xu-jiahui, Huamu, 15, 16
Zhenru
Transportation Hongqiao airport, Pudong airport,Shanghai 3, 4, 6, 7
Terminals Railway station, Shanghai South Railway
station
Commercial Zhongsan Park, North Bund, Jinan temple, 8, 9, 18, 21,
Areas Lujiazui, Hongkou football station, 25, 30
Huangpu
Development Zhangjiang, Wai-gaoqiao, Chaohejin, 11, 13, 14, 29
Zones Hongqiaotiansa
Residential Xinzhuang; Shanlin, Luwan, Pudong- 12, 17, 22, 23,
Areas luosan, Jinan north, Dahua-Wanli, 24, 26, 27, 28,
Jiangwan, Yangpu Kongjiang, Pudong- 31, 32, 33, 34
Shangnan, Putuo-Ganquan, Beijiao-
Pengpu, Yangpu-Guohe
World Expo Expo Area 19
Area

Figure 1. 34 Key zones and their locations.

With the help of way finding websites, for every two different key zones we
can get one expected route. So finally there are 561 routes among these 34 key zones.
All routes were recorded as sets of road section ID numbers (more than 13000 road
section IDs were recorded). By calculating the frequency of certain road section ID
or intersection ID, BV can be acquired.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 42
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ROAD SECTION BETWEENNESS VALUE ANALYSIS

Considering each road section as an analysis unit and counting the frequency
it is passed through by expected routes, we can get the spatial distribution of road
section BV in Shanghai road network. In Figure 2, BV increases as the color turning
from green to red. Comparing with the road grade (Figure 3), apparently the
Betweenness Value of expressways is significantly higher than the average. One
exception is the Outer Ring Road, the reason is Outer Ring Road mainly servers
through traffic and inbound-outbound traffic, thus seldom covered by connecting
routes of local traffic.

Figure 2. Spatial distribution of road section BV in Shanghai road network.

Figure 3. Distribution of road grades in Shanghai urban road network.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 43
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Higher BV means more expected routes passing through, which implies that
this kind of road sections is relatively important among the whole road network.
Expressways (which include elevated expressways and ground expressways)
account for 13.2% of the entire number of road sections, while they occupy 29.6%
of the total number of connecting road sections (road sections which BV are higher
than zero) and 64.5% of the total Betweenness Value (Table 3 and Figure 4). This
result reflects that expressway system bears much of the responsibility to connect
key areas although it only accounts for a small part of the total road mileage. On the
contrary, the branches which occupy the highest percentage in quantity (37.6%) only
account for less than 1% of the total number of connecting road sections and
betweenness value. The fact behind the analytical result is congestions on express
ways are much more severe than branches not only because more vehicles are
involved but also because they block more transportation connections in urban road
network.

Table 3. The weights of connectivity undertaken by different road grades.

Proportion in Percentage in Percentage in
   all road connecting Betweenness
sections road sections Value
Elevated Expressway 8.10% 19.90% 50.90%
Ground Expressway 5.10% 9.70% 13.60%
Primary Arterial 7.10% 15.70% 9.10%
Arterial 32.50% 46.60% 24.00%
Cross-river Tunnel 0.20% 0.50% 0.80%
Secondary Road 9.40% 7.20% 1.50%
Branch 37.60% 0.50% 0.10%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 44
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Figure 4. The proportion in road grades, connecting roads sections and

Betweenness Value.

The arterial network (which includes primary arterials, arterials, cross-river

tunnels and secondary roads) occupies high proportion in quantity and accounts for
the highest proportion of total number of connecting road sections, which implies its
important role in supporting mobility. BV of some primary arterials and arterials are
close to the expressways. There are two possibilities of this situation: (1) These road
sections link to the centroids of key zones or (2) do not link to the centroids. The
latter kind of arterials needs more attention in traffic management and control
because this kind of arterials shares more connection burden than other arterials. The
pervious kind is more complex. High level of betweenness value of this kind may be
caused by the fact that expected routes must pass through these road sections to link
the centroids. But we cannot exclude the possibility that these road sections are also
among the key ones in connection. Actually, with the help of local traffic engineers,
such kind of judgment is easy to make.
Among all the connecting road sections, BV of most road sections are very
low, half of them are less than 10. Thus in Figure 5 the cumulative number of road
sections increase more slowly along with the increase of BV. The peak BV lies
between 80 and 85, which means 1/7 of the 561 connection routes would pass the
exact road section. A very small proportion of high BV road sections holds a
majority of connection. This means that congestions on these road sections may lead
to the connection blockage of most key zones. Traffic engineers should pay more
attention to such kind of roads.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 45
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Figure 5. Distribution and cumulative curve of road section BV.

INTERSECTION BETWEENNESS VALUE ANALYSIS

The elevated expressways are relatively independent from ground road
system and bear no traffic bottleneck problems caused by intersections. Thus when
calculating the Betweenness Value of intersections we only consider the ground road
network. However, the BV of the ramps are summed into the BV of intersections
which connecting the ramps and ground roads. So the impact of ramps on the
intersections is taken into account. The spatial distribution of intersection BV
(Figure 6) shows that:
(1) Intersections with the highest betweenness values lie along the
Century Avenue, which is one of the widest and busiest ground
arterials in Shanghai.
(2) Intersections with the high betweenness value always appear along
frequent congested roads which possess high service level, such as
Longyang Road and Dalian Road.
(3) Intersections around some important business areas and transportation
terminals such as Pentagonal Square, People’s Square and the Bund
always have high betweenness value. And the points with high
betweenness value always appear in the intersections which connect
expressway ramps with ground roads.
(4) The entrances and exits of river-crossing tunnels always have high
betweenness value.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 46
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Figure 6. Spatial distribution of intersection BV in Shanghai road network.

These results imply that the betweenness value is a reasonable measure to

analyze the importance of both intersections and road sections in road network. The
frequently congested intersections which gain high value of betweenness deserve
prior consideration of reconstruction and improvement because the congestions on
these intersections will block connections among most key zones.
Distribution and cumulative curve of intersection BV (Figure 7) are very
similar to those of road sections. The peak values of intersection BV are even higher,
which is over 125. Intersections with peak betweenness value are generated when
road sections with high betweenness value meet. These intersections lie along
Century Avenue, junctions of under-river tunnels with ground roads and places
where ramps are connected to some important areas such as People’s Square. All
these intersections are key points which would influence the whole urban ground
transportation system.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 47
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Figure 7. Distribution and cumulative curve of intersection BV.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN QUANTITY OF KEY ZONES AND

DISTRIBUTION OF BETWEENNESS VALUE
In previous sections we analyzed the connection of 34 key zones, which
produce 561 expected routes. Actually, the whole expected routes cover less than
40% of all road sections in road network (sum up to 2898 route sections). Obviously
when taking more districts and zones into account, there will be more expected
routes. Meanwhile more road sections as well as intersections will share the burden
of connection. However, as illustrated in Figure 8, when the quantity of expected
routes raise, the number of road sections which serve as connecting roads does not
increase with equal ratio, but appears to become steady gradually. The reason is that
the expected routes tend to overlap on some high BV road sections.

Figure 8. Proportion of connecting road sections becomes steady as quantity of

expected routes increasing.

Fitting with logarithmic curve (Figure 8), when 40 zones and 780 expected
routes are considered, the model predicts that the number of road sections on
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expected route would be less than 42% of the whole amount of road sections in
network. Proportion will increase to 44% when 50 zones and 1225 expected routes
are under consideration, only about 5% higher than the proportion calculated from
34 zones. That means the spatial distribution pattern of BV would be stable as the
number of zones increases. Thus the result derived from 34 key zones in this paper
is representative.

CONCLUSION
It’s of practice value to know which part of road network is more important
and deserves prior consideration when conducting traffic management and control to
minimize the impacts of congestions. Congestions essentially weaken the connection
among important districts in urban area, thus impair the social and economic
activities. In this paper we use the concept of betweenness in complex network
theory to measure the role of certain intersection and road section in keeping key
zones connectivity. The result is reasonable and stable.
The distribution of Betweenness Value of road sections and intersections of
Shanghai urban road network implies that congestions on a little proportion of road
sections and intersections may cause large-scale connection problem. The result also
shows expressways system plays an important role in keeping connectivity. And
close attention must be paid to intersections such as the junctions of cross-river
tunnels with ground roads and places where ramps of expressways connecting to the
key areas to avoid serious congestion. Moreover, the spatial distribution pattern of
Betweenness is stable when takes more key zones into consideration, which proves
the result of Betweenness analysis in this paper is representative.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This work is supported by National High-Tech Project of China (863-Project)
(No. 2007AA11Z245), and the Key National Natural Science Foundation of China,
Urban Transportation Planning Theory and Methods under the Information
Environment (No. 50738004/E0807)
REFERENCES
Freeman, L. C. (1977). “A set of measures of centrality based on betweenness.”
Sociometry 40, 35—41
Freeman, L. C. (1979). “Centrality in social networks: Conceptual clarification.”
Social Networks, 1(3), 215-239
Goh, K.-I; Oh, E; Kahng, B; and Kim, D. (2003). “Betweenness centrality
correlation in social networks.” Physical Review E, 67 (1)
Sabidussi, G. (1966). “The centrality index of a graph.” Psychometrika, 31 (4), 581-
603
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Subway Station Selection Model Based on Utility Combined Analysis

Liya YAO 1, Lishan SUN 2, Wuhong WANG 3

1
School of Mechanical and Vehicular Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology,
P.O. Box 100081, Beijing, ST 5, Zhongguancun; PH (010)6891-4582; FAX
(010)6891-4582; email: yaoly@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2
Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, P.O.
Box 100024, Beijing, ST 100, Pingleyuan; PH (010)6739-6062; FAX (010)6739-
1509; email: lssun@ bjut.edu.cn
3
School of Mechanical and Vehicular Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology,
P.O. Box 100081, Beijing, ST 5, Zhongguancun; PH (010)6891-4582; FAX
(010)6891-4582; email: wuhwang@263.net

ABSTRACT
The subway station is the important node of the subway traffic net. The
traffic volume of the subway station directly influences the programming of the
subway net and the disposal of subway stations. When the subway net is dense, and
there are several selections of the subway stations for the passengers, the selection
result of the stations is directly related to the attraction of the station. In order to
calculate the traffic volume of the station, the attraction of the station is needed.
Therefore the method of utility combined analysis is used in this paper to calculate
the station attraction. The values of every level of the characters are calculated
according to the compositor of the stations, and then the attraction of the station is
got. Combing the total subway volume of the traffic zone, the final volume of the
station is got. The results show that the method is efficient in calculating the
attraction of stations, and can provide basis for forecasting the traffic volume of the
subway station.

INTRODUCTION
When the urban subway transit net is developed, subway stations to be
selected by passengers are usually more than one. Traffic volume contention exists
among the subway stations (LIU et al., 2002). The subway station selection of the
passengers decides the traffic volume of the subway station and furthermore
influences the scale of the station and the distribution of the whole subway net.
Therefore, in order to forecast and distribute the subway traffic volume reasonably,
it is meaningful to study the station selection behavior of the travelers.
At present, the forecasting of the subway traffic volume is based on
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 50
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traditional four-step forecasting method. Traffic volume of the subway line is got by
the shortest path arithmetic according to subway traffic volume between different
traffic zones (WU et al., 2004; GUO et al., 2000). Furthermore, the traffic volume of the
subway station is calculated by the unbalanced coefficient on different points of the
line and the resistance between the stations. In this method, the unbalanced
coefficient and the resistance between the stations are determined by experience, and
the differences caused by different attraction of the stations are not considered.
Passengers are the study objects in this paper. The behavior of subway station
selection of the passengers is studied using the method of utility analysis and the
influence of the characters of the subway stations are considered in the model.
BASIC METHOD
In economic, utility is the pleasure or satisfaction achieved by consumers
from the activity of consuming (LI, 2007; GUAN, 2004). For subway passengers,
utility is the realization of the travel and the satisfaction achieved in the activity of
travelling. When there is more than one station to be selected, the selection is related
to the characters of the subway stations, such as the position of the station, the
development of joining buses, transfer times, costs, parking facilities, arrangement
of the subway stations, etc. The influence of the characters of the station is
summarized to the attraction of the station. Assume that the utility of the travelers
selecting a certain subway station is linearly related to the attraction of the station.
Factors that influence the selection result are filtrated and the importance degree is
calculated. Then the attraction of the station is determined, and the select probability
of the subway station is calculated, which forms the base for the forecasting of
subway traffic volume.
CALCULATION METHOD OF SUBWAY STATION TRAFFIC VOLUME
Assume that the traffic volume of the subway station is positively related to
the attraction of the station. That is, the more attractive is the station, the greater is
the traffic volume of the subway station. The subway station traffic volume in a
traffic zone is distributed according the attraction of the stations (Ben-Akiva et al.,
1985; Hensher and Greene, 2002; ANKER, 2000). The formulas are shown below.

q j = Q A ⋅ Pj (1)

exp(Λ j )
Pj = N
(2)
∑ exp(Λ )
i =1
i

q j is the traffic volume of the station j. Q A is the total subway traffic

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 51
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volume in the traffic zone. Pj is the traffic volume rate for station j ,which is

positively related to the attraction of station j. N is the number of subway stations in

zone A, Λ j is the attraction of station j, which is related to different level values of

the characters of the stations.

P Q
Λ j = ∑∑ δ pqV pq (3)
p =1 q =1

Where P is the number of characters of the station, and Q is the number of

levels. δ pq is a judging parameter. When the level of the character p is q, δ pq =1.

Otherwise δ pq =0. V pq is the value of level p and character q. In order to get the

value of the attraction of the station, all the values of different level of the characters
V pq should be got firstly. Then the value of Λ j is able to be got, which forms the

base for calculating the value of Pj and q j .

ATTRACTION VALUE OF THE SUBWAY STATION

In this paper utility combined analysis is used to calculate the value of
different levels of the characters. Select 9 adjacent stations, 8 characters, and every
character has 3 levels. The characters and levels are shown in table 1. The characters
of the station involves the indexes of the average travel time, the average travel cost
to arrive at the station, the parking capacity of cars, the transfer times, the number of
adjoining buses, the parking capacity of bicycles, the average time spent on buying
tickets and the average transfer walking distance inside the station.

Table 1. Attributes and Levels of the Rail Stations.

Level character 1 2 3
1.average travel time（min） <15 15-30 >30
2. average cost（yuan） <1 1-2 >2
3. parking capacity of cars good normal bad
4. transfer times 0 1 2
5. number of adjoining buses <2 2-10 >10
6. parking capacity of bicycles good normal bad
7. average time of buying tickets（s） <20 20-30 >30
<100 100- >300
8. average transfer waling distance（m）
300
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In order to analysis the station selection behavior of the travelers, consider

all the characters and the levels that influence the attraction of the stations. The
levels of the characters of the stations to be selected are shown in table 2.
Table 2. Characters and Levels of the Rail Stations Prepared to be Selected.
station
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
character
1 1 2 2 2 3 1 3 3 1
2 1 3 1 3 2 2 3 2 1
3 3 1 2 3 1 2 2 3 1
4 1 2 3 1 2 1 3 2 3
5 3 1 2 2 2 1 1 3 3
6 3 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 1
7 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 1
8 2 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 1
100 travelers are selected to be investigated. The preference order of the
travelers are got and the results are shown in table 3.
Table 3. Selection Order of the Rail Stations.
station 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Traveler 1 3 9 4 6 5 1 8 7 2
Select Traveler 2 3 9 5 6 4 2 8 7 1
order … … … … … … … … … …
Traveler 100 2 9 4 5 6 1 7 8 3

In this paper, 80 samples are used for demarcating the model and the other
20 samples are used for testing the model. The selection order of traveler 1 is an
example to calculate the level values of the characters, which is the base for
calculating the attraction of the stations. All the above are bases for calculating the
selection probability of the stations.
In table 4, line A shows the 8 characters and the 3 levels of the stations. Line
B is the ranking of the same level of the characters in different stations. For example,
level 1 of character 1 in table 2 is accordant with the station 1, 6 and 9, the
corresponding order of station 1, 6 and 9 in table 3 are 3, 1 and 2. Therefore, in table
4, the value of the rank of the same level of the characters in different stations
accordant with level 1 of character 1 is 3, 1 and 2. Fill in all the values in line B
according to table 2 and 3. The expected value of the rank of all the levels of the
characters E (R) is
M
E ( R) = ∑ x (4)
x =1
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 53
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Table 4. Utility Analysis of Traveler 1.

A B C D E F G
Level
rank of the value
same level Avera square standard of
Characters and of the ge Warp of square of charact
levels characters in rank/ / Wia warps/ warps er p
different R Wia2 / Wˆ ia2 and
stations level
q/ V pq
Level 1 3 1 2 2.0000 -3.00 9.0000 4.1895 2.0468
character
Level 2 9 4 6 6.3333 1.33 1.7778 0.8276 -0.9097
1
Level 3 5 8 7 6.6667 1.67 2.7778 1.2931 -1.1371
Level 1 3 4 2 3.0000 -2.00 4.0000 1.8620 1.3646
character
Level 2 5 1 7 4.3333 -0.66 0.4444 0.2069 0.4549
2
Level 3 9 6 8 7.6667 2.67 7.1111 3.3102 -1.8194
Level 1 9 5 2 5.3333 0.33 0.1111 0.0517 -0.2274
character
Level 2 4 1 8 4.3333 -0.67 0.4444 0.2069 0.4549
3
Level 3 3 6 7 5.3333 0.33 0.1111 0.0517 -0.2274
Level 1 3 6 1 3.3333 -1.67 2.7778 1.2931 1.1371
character
Level 2 9 5 7 7.0000 2.00 4.0000 1.8620 -1.3646
4
Level 3 4 8 2 4.6667 -0.33 0.1111 0.0517 0.2274
Level 1 9 1 8 6.0000 1.00 1.0000 0.4655 -0.6823
character
Level 2 4 6 5 5.0000 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
5
Level 3 3 7 2 4.0000 -1.00 1.0000 0.4655 0.6823
Level 1 6 5 2 4.3333 -0.67 0.4444 0.2069 0.4549
character
Level 2 1 8 7 5.3333 0.33 0.1111 0.0517 -0.2274
6
Level 3 3 9 4 5.3333 0.33 0.1111 0.0517 -0.2274
Level 1 9 4 2 5.0000 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
character
Level 2 3 6 5 4.6667 -0.33 0.1111 0.0517 0.2274
7
Level 3 1 8 7 5.3333 0.33 0.1111 0.0517 -0.2274
Level 1 8 7 2 5.6667 0.67 0.4444 0.2069 -0.4549
character
Level 2 3 4 1 2.6667 -2.33 5.4444 2.5344 1.5920
8
Level 3 9 6 5 6.6667 1.67 2.7778 1.2931 -1.1371

M is the number of stations to be selected. In this paper 9 stations are

selected, so M=9. The expected rank of all the levels of the characters E (R) equals
5.
Wia = R − E ( R) (5)

Fill in the values of Wia in line D in table 4. The square sum of warps of all
24 ~2
the levels of the characters is ∑ W ia2 =44.222. So the standard square of warps Wia is
i =1
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 54
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calculated by formula (6).

24
~
Wia2 = 24 ⋅ Wia2 / ∑ Wia2 (6)
i =1

Calculate the level value of all the characters according to formula (7), and
when Wia is greater than zero, V pq gets the positive value, otherwise V pq gets the

negative value.
~
V pq = ± Wia2 (7)

Calculate the level values of the characters according to the selection of

traveler 1. The results are shown in line G in table 4. Calculate the level values of
the characters according to the selection of the other travelers and take the average
value calculated by all the travelers as the final result of the level values of the
characters. The results are shown in table 5.
Table 5. Utility Value of the Attributes and Levels .
V pq Cha.1 Cha.2 Cha.3 Cha.4 Cha.5 Cha.6 Cha.7 Cha.8
L1 2.5012 1.1276 -0.443 2.1356 -0.856 0.5962 -0.321 0.2594
L2 1.1237 0.1695 0.5512 -0.468 -0.136 0.2365 0 2.0136
L3 -1.322 -1.9356 -0.223 0.5985 0.2685 -0.365 0.0687 -0.851

As shown in figure 1, comparing the values of the levels of the characters, it

can be seen that the level value of character 1, 2, 4 and 8 are greater than the other
ones. So the factors that have important influences on the station selection behavior
are the average travel cost, the average travel time to arrive at the station, the
average transfer walking distance inside the station and the transfer time to arrive at
the station. The other factors such as the number of adjoining buses, the parking
ability of cars and bicycles and the average time spent on buying tickets are less
important.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 55
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2
level value
1
level 1
0 level 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 level 3
-1

-2

-3
character
Figure 1. Comparison of the utility of the attributes and levels.
According to the value of different levels of characters and formula (2) the
attraction of the station can be got, as shown in table 6.
TRAFFIC VOLUME PROPORTION OF THE SUBWAY STATION
Arrange the stations according to the attractions of the station, and
compare the order with the actual selection orders of the other 20 samples, it can be
seen that the forecasting orders are in accordant with the actual ones. So the
conclusion can be drawn that the model is accurate. The integrated utility of
passengers selecting the station can be got by the investigation of data and formula
(2). The traffic volume proportion of the subway station can be calculated then by
formula (1). All the results are shown in table 6.
Table 6. Final Result of the Utility of Rail Stations.
station 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
attraction 7.45 -4.11 4.59 0.70 -2.45 6.82 -2.3 -1.0 4.5
Forecasted order 1 9 3 5 8 2 7 6 4
1 8 4 5 9 2 7 6 3
Actual order
… … … … … … … … …
2 9 4 5 6 1 7 8 3
traffic volume
60.86 0.02 3.46 0.07 0.03 32.1 3E-05 0.02 3.44
proportion (%)

CONCLUSIONS
The attraction of the subway station is determined by the method of utility
combined analysis in this paper. The selection probability of the station is then
calculated, which provides a base for forecasting the traffic volume of the subway
station. All the characters of the subway station that influence the selection of the
subway station are considered in the model. It is found that the average time, cost to
arrive at the station, average transfer walking distance inside the station and the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 56
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transfer time to arrive at the station influence the result of selection of the station
greatly. The other factors are less important. The model is tested to be precise by
examples. In practice, in order to distribute the subway traffic volume reasonably
and makes the whole subway system more efficient, governmental policies are used
to adjusting the influencing factors.

REFERENCE
Ben-Akiva MOSHE, and Steven R. Lerman. Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application
to Travel Demand[M]. MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England,
1985:100-129
Chong LI. Principles of Modern Western Economics [M]. Guangzhou: Zhongshan University
Press.2007.4
David A. Hensher, Willian H. Greene. Specification and Estimation of the Nested Logit Model:
Alternative Normalizations [J]. Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No.36,
National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2002:1-17
Hongzhi GUAN. Disaggregate Model-A Tool of Traffic Behavior Analysis[M]. Beijing: China
Communications Press.2004.5
Nielsen ANKER. A stochastic transit assignment model considering differences in passengers’
utility functions [J]. Transportation Research Part B, 2000, 34(5):377-402
Weihua LIU, Huimin LIU, Qipeng YAN. The analysis on the railway passenger distributing area
in the loop line of urban rail transit. Journal of changsha railway university,
2002.12，20(4):94-104. (in Chinese)
Xiangyun WU, Canqi LIU. Traffic Equilibrium Assignment Model Specially for Urban Railway
Network[J]. Journal of Tongji university, 2004.9, 32(9): 1158-1162
Xiucheng GUO, Shen LV. Study of URT's joint modal split assignment model on cooperative
and competitive OD matrix. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2000.10,
13(4):91-94
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Transportation Informationization of Enterprise’s Rail Leased Lines

Nan CHENG1,2 Huapu LU2 Yijian TANG3 Shuai DAI2 Xinxin YU2

1
School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China,
100044; PH (86) 010- 62772615;Fax (86) 10-62795339; email:chnnancy@126.com
2
Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing,
China,100084
3
The China Classification Society, Beijing, China, 100044

ABSTRACT
Taking the Xiangtan Iron And Steel Group Co. Ltd as an example, the paper
investigates the status of enterprise’s rail leased line and analyzes the problems
existing in the railway car operating. For solving these problems, this study develops
an integrated transportation system to optimize the management process and
proposes a package solution based on the advanced information technique and
wireless communication technique. Finally, the paper summarizes the main function
and key technique of the system and proves that it would be applicable to related
industries.

1. INTRODUCTION
Rail leased lines are managed by enterprises and provides transportation
services for them. traditionally, rail leased lines have their own power units and
rolling stocks, which form a systemic transportation organization and transportation
capacity. The Xiang Tan Iron & Steel Group Company Ltd.（hereinafter referred to
as “Xiang Gang Group”）, a large state-owned steelmaker in Hunan province, was set
up in 1958. At the beginning, Xiang Gang Group built its rail leased lines with
Xiangtan East Station together. These lines were rebuilt for several times and the
design capacity has reached 2,000,000 ton. The rail shipping by leased lines have
become the main transportation mode in Xiang Gang Group. In 2003, the rail traffic
occupied 90.57 percent of the total traffic in Xiang Gang Group.
Up to date, the informationization of Xiang Gang Group has been developed for
many years, such as ERP of business, production and sale system, which improve the
strength of Xiang Gang Group as a whole and shorten the office process. However in
the operation management of rail leased lines, multilevel management, manual
operation and telephone connection are still mainly used and cannot change or share
information with other information systems in Xiang Gang Group. The following
problems/issues have been identified in transportation:
① According to the regulation of the operating standard for railway shunting, if
shunting plan is less than 3 hooks, dispatchers can make known to drivers by
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oral communication. In order to make things convenient for drivers who need
not go to control center to take shunting plan, dispatchers would dispatch the
plan under 3 hooks artificially.
② Command system mainly depends on shunting capacity and work efficiency
totally relies on individual’s ability.
③ Actual shunting doesn’t conform to the plan frequently and cannot be corrected
in time.
④ Rolling stocks cannot be located accuately and additional time and manpower
would be devoted to find them.
⑤ The usage status of rolling stocks cannot be known in real time.
⑥ Production plan is delayed because the information of loading units is not
enough to transfer loading progress.
⑦ Those rolling stocks owned by rail bureaus are detained in Xiang Gang Group
for a long time because there is no alarm in advance, which cause plenty of
overtime expenditure.
⑧ The limited informationization cannot collect and analyze data effectively.
⑨ Recording the number of rolling stock manually needs a lot of manpower which
causes higher mistake rate.

The above nine problems/issues affect the dispatch efficiency of rail

transportation and increase the logistical cost in Xiang Gang Group. So it is
necessary to develop the transportation information systems for rail leased lines by
different techniques as soon as possible.

2.ESTABLISHMENT AND PRACTICE OF TRANSPORTATION

INFORMATIONIZATION OF RAIL LEASED LINES
2.1 Design Plan
The main flow of rail transportation operating in the enterprise is purchase and
sale plans. Production plan is a driver. Figure 1 shows how the transportation plan
guides the actions.
In the rail transportation operating flow, sharing and transferring the information
among information nodes is important. The core of informationization is to set up an
integrated information system to cover all process and guarantee the characteristic
and independence of each work.
In this information system, besides the operating flow, rolling stock flow and
material flow are another two principal parts. Rolling stock flow shows the location
and the number of rolling stocks. Material flow shows the characteristics of rolling
stocks, such as types of goods, status of goods. Because location of rolling stocks
changes continuously, the information system must trace them exactly. The goods
loaded in rolling stocks do not change in a period of time so the change of goods and
their status can be modified manually (Figure 2).
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Figure1. Rail transportation operating flow in enterprise.

Figure 2. Information system design of tranportation operation on rail leased

lines.

2.2 Function
According to above analysis of working flow, the information system of Xiang
Gang Group’s rail leased lines should include the following function modules in order
to satisfy the transportation demand and information transfer: depot information
management, transportation plan management, and rolling stock shunting
managementetc (Table 1). Some data application modules are also needed to realize
the information inquiry, data analysis and information issuance.
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Table 1. Function modules of information system.

Function Descriptions
Through computer interlock system, data are connected;
Depot information
interlock information can be read; data of dispatchers and staff
management
on duty become transparent; and playback function is realized.
Production or ministerial-level dispatching department makes
transportation plan and delivers to depot-level dispatching
Transportation department. The plan is broken down to shift operation plan.
plan management Depot-level dispatching department feeds back the actual
performance based on transportation plan and finishes the
management of transportation plan.
Provide the following functions of the rolling stock shunting
Rolling stock plan, such as making, delivering, feedback, inquiring,
shunting displaying and assistant drawing, and realize the rolling stock
management shunting management among dispatchers, staff on duty and
drivers.
Based on the performance of rolling stock shunting plan, the
Rolling stock number of rolling stock and the related characteristic, users can
management search for information that they are interested in such as the
types of goods, weight, status, ect.
Dispatchers input basic operation plan. The system creates the
train basic operation diagram automatically and then the shift
operation plan according to the train basic operation diagram.
The train plan operation diagram will be adjusted
correspondingly as the shift operation plan is modidified. The
Train operation train actual operation diagram can be obtained as combining
management with the log book. Three operation diagrams can be displayed at
the same time or switched each other, which can compare the
train punctuality. The number of rolling stock can transfer along
the rail lines by information of track occupation, signal open,
railroad switch direction, section blocking, and manual
maintenance.
Include dispatching order module management and dispatching
Dispatching order order programming management. Dispatchers can deliver
management dispatching orders to different depots and locomotives and get
back the confirmed information.
Loading and
unloading Stevedores input information of goods loading and unloading,
information and send completion information to dispatchers.
management
Train inspection
Inspectors input the status information of rolling stock.
status management
Locomotive depots and rolling stock depots input
Locomotive and
maintenance information of locomotive and rolling stock,
rolling stock status
transfer related information to dispatchers, and offer basis for
management
statistics, inquiry and analysis of rolling stock status.
Freight
Display information of rolling stock status, track status and
transportation
goods by LED
management
Realize the communication without blind spots between
System of shunting dispatching center and locomotives running in the whole
on level tracks operating district by wireless Mesh technique and Wi-Fi
technique
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2.3 Key Techniques

① Real-time rolling stock tracing technique
In the whole system, real-time rolling stock tracing is very important. If a
mistake of rolling stock doesn’t be found in time in the process of rolling stock
operation, an operating mistake would be happened in certain section or even the
whole rail leased lines. So how to keep the accuracy of rolling stock tracing, find out
the problems even under the condition of manual operation and correct it become the
key point to the system.
Based on the characteristic of actual operation and the situation of equipments,
the district with rail circuit can be divided into several sub-modules (Figure 3). In
order to avoid mistakes because of manual operation or other reasons, the system
starts up the real-time modification program to monitor the correctness of rolling
stock tracing. The main correction way depends on the quantity and number of rolling
stock by installing train number identification and axle counter equipment on some
key points.

Figure 3. Rolling stock tracing module.

In rolling stock tracing system, the following techniques are applied: collecting
real-time computer interlock information, tracing rolling stock operation trace,
sharing the characteristic information of rolling stock by train number identification
system, contacting contents of railway shunting plan, analyzing the order of hooks,
feeding back the performance of locomotive, getting real-time location and status of
rolling stock, making special modules to satisfy the operating standard and guarantee
the reliability of rolling stock tracing, and providing the automatic simulation
performance of railway shunting plan to recover data of rolling stock tracing if some
faults of system happen.
②Wireless mesh network and Wi-Fi technique
Equipped locomotive desk, AP, Wi-Fi mobile telephone and by wireless
communication technique, locomotive and dispatching center can communicate in
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real time, including data transmission and voice transmission.

Wireless mesh network is a kind of grid network depending on the wireless wide
band network technique. The characters of wireless mesh network are as follows: (1)
great scale of communication. A metropolitan area network can be built. (2) high
speed of transmission. Single-hop transmission can reach tens of megabyte. (3) good
mobility. Moving terminal can keep the high speed of transmission in high speed
moving. (4) fantastic compatibility. It can connect with Internet, Wi-Fi local area
network, public telephone network by corresponding gateway. (5) multi-hop function.
It is the most outstanding character of mesh network. Distance between terminal and
access point affects the speed of data transmission. Mesh network can shorten the
distance by right of the multi-hop function, which increases the speed and solves the
problem of remote coverage and tunnel transmission. (6) establish network byself.
Any terminal in mesh network turns on the electrical power; it can search for network
automatically and establish connection with network without any communication
equipment. (7) capacity to balance load automatically. In certain scale, if the quantity
of equipment exceeds the loading capacity, the speed of data transmission would
decrease and even break off. The system can transmit data by other router or terminal
to balance the loading capacity automatically in certain scale. (8) high safety and
reliability. The system does not depend on the base station. Any terminal equipment
can be connected. So any equipment in network which is at fault would crash the
whole system.

2.4 Practice
In practice, the scale of each depot is different, as well as the quantity of work
loads. Some depots have great working intension while the system cannot identify
automatically, which results that the unconformity between plan and actual working
cannot be found. In order to avoid the mistakes in the minimal scale, the number
identification is set up at the entrance and exit for avoiding the mistake information
impacting the working of related depots.
The system changes the traditional manual working method and integrates those
physical dispersive offices into a live and perfect network cooperating working
platform. Project information can be collected and transferred in the system. Every
department can get their business information correctly and quickly, which is benefit
for the company to consolidate and utilize the human, financial and material resources,
deal with each work in time, and improve the working efficiency obviously. By fixing
the setting of main business flow, and specifying the program and time limit of each
business, it creates opportunity to decrease management loopholes and strengthen the
process control. The system realizes information sharing and business transparence by
providing the valuable comprehensive analyzing information through data collection,
statistics and analysis, which supports the management and control of decision makers,
as well as necessary information to directors and operators. Relying on the
multi-authorization of the system, personnel have different operating authority
according to their department, post and operation, which ensue the safety of operation
and secrecy of data.
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3. CONCLUSIONS
Totally, enterprises that own rail lines have paid attention to the
informationization of rail transportation and deemed it as the most important part in
the integrated production and management of the company. The informationization of
rail leased lines should follow the principles of uniform leading, planning, standard,
resources and management.
With the development of science and technology, different techniques, such as
network, identification, wireless, communication and tracing, are integrated into a
uniform system. The system is applied to the informationization of enterprise’s rail
leased lines and realizes the robotization of the enterprise.
Rail transportation of enterprise is very common in metallurgy industry, chemical
industry and coal industry. Its management and operation are similar each other and
all are inclined to the rail system. With the popularization of electric railway, it has the
base condition to develop the information system. Under the uniform standards, it’s
time to extend the informationization of rail transportation in enterprises.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research is supported by National High-Tech Research and Development
Program of China (863 Program) (Grant No.2007AA11Z202 and No.2007AA11Z233)
and P.H.D Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No.
20070003065).

REFERENCES
Xue, Huacheng.(1999).“Managerment Information System”.Bei Jing:Tsing Hua
University Press.
Jiang, Xueping.(1997). “Information System of Development Method – Method,
Strategy,Technique,Tool and Development”. Bei Jing:Tsing Hua University
Press.
Liao, Jiguang, and Mo, Zhengkun.(1987). “Railway Security System
Engineering”.Chang Sha:Hunan University Press.
Lang, Zong, and Hao, Chengjin. (1998). “Modern Rail Signal Technology”. Cheng Du:
Southeast Jiaotong University Press.
Wang, Xifu, Chen, Jianguang. (2004). “Safety Management System Design and
Development of Rail Transportation Based on B/S and C/S”. China Safety
Science Journal,2004,14(3),73—76.
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Research of New Urban Area Design on the Basis of TOD Mode

–-A Case Study of Bin Hu New District in Hefei City

Dazhi GU1 and Ping YAN2

1
Department of Urban Planning, College of Architecture and Art, Hefei University
of Technology, P.O. Box 50, 193 Tunxi Road, Hefei,; PH (86)13856040209; FAX
(86) 551-2905358; email: xzandgdz@126.com
2
Hefei Urban Planning Bereau, 51 Funan Road, Hefei; PH (86)551-2674020; FAX
(86) 551-2674020; email:yanpinhf@hotmail.com; College of Architecture and
Urban Planning,Tongji University, 1293 Sipin Road, Shanghai

ABSTRACT
As an urban developing mode, Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) mode
targets in energy-saving and bases upon public transportation system, and it has
positive significance for solving the problems like disordered sprawl and traffic
congestion in Chinese cities. This article intends to take Bin Hu new district in Hefei
as the example to illustrate the practice of TOD mode in the urban designdesign in
middle to large scale cities. The paper analyzes the relationship among new district,
central urban area and public transportation development, and concludes that TOD
mode is applicable in the design; it states from the aspects such as the building of
“double-rapid” complex public transportation network, setting up of dispersion-
compact urban body and TOD community, the mixed use of different types of lands,
as well as the scenery design with walking space to realize TOD mode; It also
proposes that some flexible methods can be adopted in order to realize the TOD
mode. These flexible methods include taking normal bus transit instead of rail-
transit, setting TOD community with transportation hub, etc.

0. INTRODUCTION
As a transit-oriented urban developing technique, TOD (Transit-Oriented
Development) mode makes intensive use of lands and is widely adopted in the
construction in European and Asian cities with large population and has achieved
great success. Since the mode was introduced into China in 1990s, it is mainly used
in super-large scale cities which have met the requirements of rail-transit. In fact,
considering the present and long-term rapid increasing urbanization rate and fast
developing construction in the city, TOD mode also has practice significance for the
numerous Chinese large-medium scale cities without the condition of rail-transit
(Zhang, 2007), since most of these cities are facing the crucial period that changing
from single-center to multi-center. This article intends to take Bin Hu new district in
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Hefei city as the example to make a research of urban new area design on the basis
of TOD mode.

1. THE DEFINITION OF TOD AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE TO CHINESE

CITIES
Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) mode is put forward by American Peter
Cahhorpe in 1980s in order to solve the urban problems like serious suburbanization,
large-scale low-density city sprawl, overdependence on mini-cars, and high degree
of social isolation in America. TOD mode has become an important part of planning
theories like “neo-urbanism” and “smart growth”. It aims to build an urban lands
usage mode which suits the public transportation service, i.e. the urban layout of
taking public transit corridor as the tie, transit-oriented comprehensive land-use
clusters as the joints (Calthorpe, 2001). TOD mode has a widely use in practice and
it is flexible to different city conditions, for example, Arlington in the US employs
the subway corridor developing mode which bases on rail transit station, while
Curitiba in Brazil takes the “three-direction road developing mode” which bases on
BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) (Yang, 2009).
In the last 10 years, the urbanization in China develops twice as the world
average level and the overall energy consumption becomes No.2 in the world (Liu,
2009). Various problems were brought out: inefficienct use of land resources,
immense investment in infrastructure, rapid increase in private automobiles,
outstanding tidal transportation, etc. Limitation of private transit and improvement
of land-use efficiency are the main challenges that Chinese cities are facing and
these are the triggers to adopt TOD mode (Lu ，2005). TOD mode has realistic
significance to solve the urban problems in China and comply with the common
goalt of urban sustainable development ( Pan, 2004)

2. DESIGN BACKGROUND OF BINHU NEW DISTRICT IN HEFEI AND

THE PRACTICAL REALIZING CONDITIONS OF TOD MODE
Hefei city develops rapidly since it was established as the capital of Anhui
province in 1949. In 1980s’ city overall development plan, “three-blade-fan model”
planning idea, which set the old town area as the center and three new urban areas in
the east, north and southwest, was founded the spatial developing layout of Hefei
city. The population in Hefei increases 25 times in 50 years and reaches 1.26 million.
The urbanization rate reaches 46.3% in 2002 (Wu, 2009). Currentt urban
construction can hardly meet the needs of urban development, so development of
new district was adopted to solve the land shortage problem.
Bin Hu New District locates in the southeast of Hefei city. Hechao Road is in
the west, Southern 2nd ring road is in the north, Nanfei River is in the east and Chao
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Hu Lake (one of the fifth Freshwater Lakes in China) is in the south. The new
district covers all the lands in Dawei town, Yicheng town and Yixing town and
partial lands in Luogang town. The planning land-use is 110km2. There are abundant
humanistic and natural resources in the area. Bin Hu New District is designed as an
ecological new urban area which combines exhibition, commerce, residence,
tourism and recreation. Upon the analysis of following points, TOD mode is adopted
in the planning.
Comparing with old urban area, Bin Hu New District has less attraction, so
it is only the place to supplementcertain function of central urban area and has little
possibility to become a new central area. Then the relation between Bin Hu New
District and central urban area should be supplementaryn and extended., Close
connection and convenient transportation are needed.
Relation on spatial structure between Bin Hu New District and central urban
area. The New District continues the fan-shape developing mode. Like other three-
wing clusters, the New District has great economic connection with the central
urban area and demands for high-speed commuting and perfect transit system.
Relation between the New
District and the development of
the rail transit. According to rail
transit network design plan in
Hefei city, No.1 rail transit line
will be completed in 2014 to link
Bin Hu New District and the old
central area, and this will become
the foundation of adopting TOD
mode in the development of Bin
Hu New District.
Besides, according to the
current transportation situation in
Hefei, the urbanization has come
into the acceleration period with
the rapid increase of urban
motorization. Without suitable
measures, the transit needs caused
Figure 1. Overall Ichnography of Bin Hu
by the urbanization and
New District Developing Plan.
motorization will definitely lead to
the waste of resources, the destruction of environment and the traffic congestion.
Aiming to the current city development, the adoption of TOD mode is a natural
choice.
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3. BIN HU NEW DISTRICT DESIGN STRATEGY ON THE BASIS OF TOD

MODE
At the beginning of the plan of Bin Hu New District, TOD mode was
proposed to be adopted. A transit-oriented new urban district will be built through
the setting up of “double-rapid” complex public transit network, the construction of
dispersion-compact urban body and TOD community, mixed-use of lands, as well as
the design of walking space with scenery (Figure 1). The main design strategies are
as follows:
3.1 To Build A “Double-Rapid” Complex Public Transit Network
Considering the specific transportation conditions in Bin Hu New District,
some changes are made to conventional TOD mode. Rail transit in the west side is
combined with the conventional BRT in the east side so as to form two
transportation corridors. And the corridors will serve as the framework of
constructing sub-level normal bus transit network which will cover the whole New
District (Figure 2).
3.1.1 “Double-Rapid” Complex Public Transit Corridor
One rail transit line is
designed to run along Hechao
Road to connect the old urban area
and Bin Hu New District which
serves as the basis of another
conventional BRT that is designed
to run along South Fehe Road.
These two transit lines will form
“double-rapid” complex public
transit corridor and becomes the
rapid transit way to the central
urban area. Three comprehensive
transportation hubs will be set on
each BRT line, and locate in the
three “dispersion-compact ”
urban bodies of Yicheng town,
Dawei town and Yixing town
respectively. The three urban
Figure 2. Analysis Chart of
bodies develop their
Transportation.
transportation-service areas,
business areas and residence areas around the transportation hubs which are the
centers of the town in a radiated shape.
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3.1.2 Multiple Normal Bus Transit Networks

“Double-rapid” complex transit corridor is the main part of the bus transit
network and serves as the basis of the bus transit network system. Large-capacity
bus transit network is made up of a great number of 1st-level normal bus lines.
Normal bus transit network, which covers the whole Bin Hu New District
intensively, can be divided into basic lines and supplemental lines . The basic lines
of normal bus transit network can satisfy the transit needs of short to medium
distance among the three urban bodies and the TOD communities, as well as be
responsible for the connection and transfer between the comprehensive
transportation hubs in the “double-rapid” transportation corridors. The supplemental
lines are designed to satisfy the transportation needs in some areas which have no or
little bus lines, as well as the marginal regions.
Multiple sub-level transportation hubs will be set up inside the three urban
bodies aiming to serve the normal bus transit lines, and around these hubs. A great
number of dispersed TOD communities will be constructed. These communities will
develop their coral service area, business area, residence area and open space around
the hubs in a radiated shape.
3.1.3 Intensive Graded Road Structure
In the design of urban road network, public transportation deserves fully
consideration. The single main-street structure should be changed into intensive
graded and multi-functional road network structure. Urban main streets of Fanhua
Avenue and Kaituo Road are designed to link the three “dispersion-compact” urban
bodies. The South 2nd-ring Road locates in the north and Binhu Road in the south,
combined with Hechao Road and South Fehe Road, as well as Zhenxing Road which
runs through the three urban bodies. The main road network of “four-horizontal and
three-vertical” structure has been built up. Sub-level road network is designed in the
area between the main streets, and mainly located inside each urban body so as to
divide different TOD communities. Branch roads are set within the TOD
communities. The sub-main streets and branches are mainly used to satisfy the needs
of walking and public bus transit.
According to the need of running the public bus lines, the distance between
sub-main streets in the city is 400 – 500m; the distance between branches is 200 –
300m. The intensive road network structure increases the connection between public
bus transit and the TOD communities: more roads share the traffic flow and improve
the bus transit efficiency. At the same time, the intensive road network reduces the
scale of the community and the size of the streets, which make it more comfortable
and suitable for walking.
3.2 Multi-Core Hierarchy Spatial Structure
The design of spatial layout of Bin Hu New District is in a multi-core
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structure. According to the plan, the different geographical conditions and existing
road network, three dispersion-compact urban bodies formed naturally from north to
south: Yicheng town, Yixing town and Dawei town. At eastern and western sides of
each town, comprehensive transportation hubs are designed. Inside the urban body,
sub-level bus transportation hubs are set symmetrically, and the TOD communities
will be constructed around these hubs. The whole Bin Hu New District is in a
hierarchy structure of urban body – community (Figure 3).
3.2.1 Dispersion-Compact Urban Body
Dispersion-compact urban
body regard urban public transit as
the tie to link multiple multi-
functional “urban organic bodies”
within the city area. “Dispersion”
refers to the “multi-core” in the city,
and “compact” means improving the
spatial utilization ratio in the urban
body and the TOD communities
under the premise of controlling
population density.
The functional layout plan in
Bin Hu New District adopts the idea
of “dispersion-compact” urban body,
which corresponds to the influence
of TOD mode to urban spatial
situation. Because of the great
attraction of transportation hubs to
Figure 3. Spatial Structure Chart.
the crowd, the lands development
becomes more intensive when it is nearer to the hubs so that the urban construction
shows an obvious phenomenon of “floating” to the transportation hubs. Taking this
feature into account, the idea of “dispersion-compact” urban body requires that the
developing intensity should follow the principle of decreasing from the central area
to the outer space, and the height of the buildings also should be lower when it is
farther from the hub. It has distinguished different features from the urban space and
lands development which depend on traveling by automobiles, and it is the real
reflection of traveling by public transit on the urban spatial pattern.
The three dispersion-compact urban bodies play different role in the whole
area of Bin Hu New District: the function of Yixing town is exhibition, the function
of Yicheng town is business and the function of Dawei is tourism. The developments
of these urban bodies takes the comprehensive transportation hub of “double-rapid”
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transit corridors as the center and the developing intensity decreases when it is
farther from the hub. Large ecological corridor is reserved between the urban bodies
as the precious space for future urban development. Multiple TOD communities are
constructed inside the urban bodies around the sub-level transportation hubs. These
communities mix the function of working, living and recreation together and form
multiple mixed-use spatial units.
The layout of dispersion-compact urban body satisfies the living and general
working needs of the residents inside the TOD communities. Most of the business
activities can take place inside the urban bodies so that the commuting is reduced; at
the same time, the design of urban
bodies and the TOD communities
all take transit hubs as the centers of
development, which improve the
convenient level of commuting and
the efficiency of public transit. The
layout of dispersion-compact urban
body based on the TOD community
has a good merge with the TOD
developing mode of the city.
3.2.2 TOD Community
The TOD community is an
urban spatial unit which connects
directly with residents. It is the
main practicing subject of mix-
Figure 4. Schematic Diagram of the
development of lands, transit-
Land-use Layout within the Transit
oriented development and design of Station Area.
pedestrian system. “TOD
community” is constructed around the sub-level transportation hubs which scattered
symmetrically in the urban body. The central business area which mixes commercial
facilities and working facilities is built around the transportation hub, and the outer
space is residence area. The developing intensity decreases from the transportation
hub to the periphery area. Open space in the farthest outer-ring serves as the
boundary of the community (Figure 4). The main planning points are:
Structure: though public transit serves as the tie, it is more convenient for the
residents in the “sub-level conventional transit-hub-oriented” developing mode than
in the “comprehensive transit-hub-oriented” developing mode on the BRT lines.
Scale: the plan of the New District gives up the design layout of “large yard”
residence, adopts the traditional neighborhood pattern and reticular roads frame, and
decides the community scale of every block in the radius of walking distance.
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Kindergartens, schools, affiliated business facilities and municipal facilities scatter in

the community by different service radius.
Layout: every community is a multi-functional spatial unit whose center is
the sub-level transportation hub. There are living facilities like shopping stores,
supermarkets, restaurants and certain office working district locate in the central area.
Outer of the center is the residence area with high density within the scope of
walking service. The outer-ring is public opening space including parks, greenlands,
and squares.
3.3 Hybrid And High-Intensity of Lands Development
3.3.1 Hybrid Development of Lands
On the level of urban body, the surrounding area of the comprehensive
transportation hub has the highest intensity of development in the whole Bin Hu New
District with high density and hybrid development. The development intensity is
reduced from the center to the periphery area and the capacity is reduced in the same
ratio. Inside the cluster, sub-level transportation hub is the center of development.
The central business area with business facilities and office working facilities locates
around it.

Figure 5. Developing Schematic Diagram of TOD Community.

3.3.2 High-Intensity Development of Lands
High-intensity development is an important feature of TOD mode. High-
intensity development can supply necessary transit trip to promise the feasibility and
efficiency of public transit investment.
Foreign practice shows that the suitable residence density is 25-45
houses/acre (about 0.62-1.11 houses/100m2), and the suitable working post rate is
50/acre (about 1.24/100m2) (Li, 2007). Consulting to the other cities and considering
the present land-use situation in Hefei, the capacity of the comprehensive functional
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areas of business, recreation and office working which are close to the
comprehensive transportation hubs in the urban body should be controlled around 4,
the capacity of multi-functional areas which are close to sub-level transit hubs in the
TOD communities should be around 3, and the capacity of residence area should be
around 2. (Figure 5)
3.3.3 Mixed-Functional Development of Transportation Hubs
In order to encourage the residents to take public transit, the seamless
connection between living space, pedestrian system and stations is the most
important thing (Mao, 2004). Multiple seamless connection tactics are presented in
the design plan through the hybrid use of the transit hubs and business service: the
station and the shopping facilities form a merging building lot (which is as deep as
three floors underground); using elevators and lifters to connect different floors;
setting more living facilities within the walking distance from the station; to set the
station hall and bus transfer station in the same floor, etc.
3.4 Pedestrian System and Public Space Design Associated with Landscape
3.4.1 Landscape System Construction
Near the Chaohu Lake, the planning district has the Mother River of Hefei---
the southern Feihe River, which goes from north through down, and it also has the
Shiwuli River, Tangxi River and so on, and has a rare urban ecological corridor in
the city. The two ecological landscape belts--- the southern Feihe River water
landscape belt and the scenic belt around the Chaohu Lake---are shaped by combing
the shore lines of the Chaohu Lake and the southern Feihe River. The landscape belts
circle the whole new district and become its “Green Lung”. The purpose of
landscape belt is chiefly for touring and recreational activities in Bing Hu New
District.
3.4.2 Public Space Design
The large green lands which between urban complexes are preserved for open
City Park, making use of its extensive wetlands, tidal flats and ecological farm lands
to constitute pastoral, ecological landscape. The reserved green lands between TOD
communities are designed for small parks, ecological preventing and controlling
green lands, and nursery production bases.
Associated with the pedestrian system plann in each community, the public
space strengthens the mutual exchange and infiltration among the urban functional
spaces like surrounding commercial space, residential space, and cultural recreational
space, etc.
3.4.3 Well-Designed Pedestrian System
The TOD community supplies good walking and cycling access for residents.
All of the streets have clear and convenient walkways and the key business districts
are connected with transit sites. All the signalized intersections mark the zebra
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crossing without pedestrian tunnels and overpasses. The perfect bikeway system was
built in or between TOD Communities. Within all the blocks, the vehicles go
directly into the underground parking facifities from the entrance of each block to
reduce the interference with the residents’ trip. The various buildings should have the
shortest distance to the transit stations. Main commercial facilities and public
transportation facilities should have a tight combination.

4. TO PROBE INTO PLANNING MODEL OF THE NEW DISTRICT BASED

ON TOD MODE
This plan exemplifies the development of Bin Hu New District in Hefei and
researches into applied strategies in the development of the New District in medium
to large cities. The paper points out that the planning of large and medium-sized
cities can employ lots of flexible methods for the implementation of the TOD mode,
such as to replace rail transportation with normal public transportation, and to set
TOD community by combining the transportation hub so as to attain the
development guided by the public transportation.
4.1 The Normal Transportation Substitutes The Rail Transportation
The TOD mode was ripe and ideal. But most of cities can’t sustain huge
investment in advance, as well as long construction period. As the development of
the majority of cities in China are in rapid progress, it isn’t available and realistic in
the short-term to support the development of TOD mode by rail transportation.
Therefore, cities in china should adopt normal transportation and BRT to realize
TOD mode. The successful practice of Curitiba BRT proves that they can serve the
purpose like the rail transportation to guide the land-exploiting along the way.
Like the rail transportation, BRT acting as transit-oriented service bears three
traits: medium and high transportation volume, limited stations and permanently
basic facilities such as special highways and stations. BRT system provides the
public transportation service, departing at 5-minute interval, which equals to a train
with three carriages at 10-minute interval. In the main corridor of passenger flow,
the one-way transportation volume of BRT usually is over 8000 persons per hour
and can surpass over 50000 persons an hour, which exceed many rail transportation
systems (Cervero, 1993). So under the given measures the normal public
transportation served for the development of transit-oriented can exert medium and
high rail transportation volume. Compared with rail transportation, the investment of
normal transportation is lower and it provides more economical and realistic ways
and measures for the construction of the large-capacity passenger transport corridors.
It has a great significance to curb the sporadic development in China.
4.2 The Plan Based on the Distribution of Public Transportation Hubs
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The plann of Bin Hu New District is on the basis of distribution of

transportation hubs. On the one hand, it embodies the newly-established urban
complex and communities, which are based on transportation junctions at all levels.
The chief feature of TOD mode is to take public transportation service as the
essential transportation model, to construct three disperse-compact model urban
complex centers integrated transportation junction, and TOD community, the
Spatial Structure of city is formed in view of the distribution of junction. Therefore,
the design based on the transportation junction helps to realize the utilization of
disperse-compact model as well as urban development based on transit-oriented
service. On the other hand, it reflects that the design for transit network is also based
on the hub. In the traditional transportation planning, transit network distribution
planning is served as important key issue and core content, meanwhile it neglect the
vital function of passenger flow and evacuation (Yu, 2007). Actually, land for public
transportation hub doesn’t belong to nonrenewable resources. As soon as it comes
into being, any change will go difficult. However, public transportation routes can
flexibly set up surrounding the hub according to uncertain social and economic
factors, etc. Therefore, the rational classification and well-distributed arrangement
are planned in this planning. TOD community with this designdesign concept and
disperse-compact city is a natural reflection of transit-oriented development model
in urban spatial form.

5. CONCLUSION
In the past two decades, while expanding central cities and planning to build
new district, most of cities use urban expressway or trunk road, to link the old town
and the new district.
Comparing with planning of the past expressway and trunk road linking the
new urban district and the old area, Bin Hu New District in Hefei city adopts TOD
mode with the advantages as follows: First, public transportation dominated trip
mode will efficiently control car transportation, which can set up reasonable traffic
mode structure for the city and relieve a series of problems involving energy,
environment and land resource, etc. Secondly, high capacity public transportation
providing sufficiently passenger transportation can meet requirement for
transportation between new city and central urban district. Thirdly, public transport
dominated trip mode can reduce car traffic pressure in the downtown, and then
ensure the mobility of transportation system here. Fourthly, It reflects the social
justice. To view the process of urbanization, the large capacity public transport
system provides lower price and higher quality service for many mid and low
income families in the city.
For promoting the sustainable development of the city and city transportation
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in China and establishing the resource thrift city, the TOD mode should be promoted
during the development of the new district to guide the city developments.

REFERENCES
Calthorpe, P., and Fulton, W. (2001). The Regional City: Planning for the End of
Sprawl, Island Press, Washington, D.C.
Cervero, R. (1993). Transit-Supportive Development in the United States:
Experiences and Prospects. Federal Transit Administration, Washington,
D.C.
Li, Linglan, Zhang Guohua, Cao Yunli (2007). Approaches to Land-Use Planning
and Adjustment adjacent to Rail Transit Stations:a Case Study in Suzhou,
Jiangsu Province, Urban Transport of China, Jan. 1, 30 – 36.
Liu, Shilin (2009). Report on Chinese Urbanization in 2008, Shanghai People’s
Publishing House, Shanghai.
Lu, Huapu (2005). Urban Integrated Traffic Planning with its Research Subjects
Based on TOD, Bulletin of National Science Foundation of China, Apr. 2,
209 – 212.
Mao, Jiangxing, Yan Xiaopei (2004). An International Study on the Mutual
Relationship between Urban Transport System and Land Use, City
Planning Review, Jul. 10, 64 – 69.
Pan, Haixiao, Ren Chunyang (2004). The Review of ‘Transit Oriented Development
in America: Experiences, Challenges, and Prospects’, Urban Planning
Overseas, Jun. 8, 61 – 65.
Wu, Yongfa, Zhou Guoyan, Xu Zhen (2009). Green City, Hefei: Quality and
Decorated, Chinese and Overseas Architecture, Feb. 2, 7-19.
Yang, Tao, Guo Xiucheng, Zhang Jian, Zhu Fukun, Qiu Ying (2009). Integrated
Transit System in Curitiba. Urban Transport of China, Mar. 10, 35-42.
Yu, Jie, Yang Xiaoguang, Yin Rui, Xia Shengguo (2007). Public Transport
Planning of Developing City Based on TOD mode, Journal of Traffic and
Transportation Engineering, Jun. 7, 106 – 110.
Zhang, Ming, Liu Jing (2007). The Chinese Edition of Transit-Oriented
Development, Urban Planning Forum, Jan. 1, 91-96.
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Urban Land Structure Planning Model

Based on Green Transportation System Principal

Zhe KONG1, XiuCheng GUO1, Jia HOU1

1
School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China;
PH:13952032617; E-mail: kongzhe_ren@126.com

ABSTRACT
Traditional green transportation research pays more attention to the
optimization of transportation technology and structure in terms of traffic
environment consumption constrains. The results cannot achieve on the feedback
between transportation and land-use. The paper proposed urban land structure
planning model, considering the interaction between land-use and transportation. It
uses the index of land use structure as variables to set up bi-level programming
model, from the perspective of the origin of traffic production. In this regard, GASA
was used to solve the model in which the upper objective function minimized traffic
environment consumption, and the lower objective function maximized
transportation efficiency. Taking the case of Zhenjiang for example, the paper
described the application of the bi-level programming planning model, and resulted
for the feedback suggestion that land mixed extent and road area ratio should be
improved properly.
INTRODUCTION
As the rapid development of urban economy and the process of urbanization,
urban transportation demand increases dramatically. (Yuval, 2008) In order to meet
the needs of urban development, urban construction department has invested large
amounts of funds for urban transportation system. However, the traditional urban
transportation planning is a single-oriented planning, and did not take into account
the interaction between land-use and transportation. Not only the traffic jam problem
still exists, but also environmental quality becomes even worse, and urban
transportation is still the constraint of urban economy development (Haibo, 2008).
In this situation, green transportation which pays more attention to reduce
environmental consumption and ensure transportation efficiency is the new direction
of transportation system construction (Maxoulis, 2008). Urban land-use structure
decides distribution of traffic flow and demand, and transportation also has feedback
on land-use mode (David, 2008). Land-use and integrated transportation system
planning is the foundation of green transportation system construction.
The existing models used traffic environmental carrying capacity for the
rigid constraints, and used shortest travel time or highest speed as objective function.
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This leads to instability or overload of environmental consumption. Most of the

research only paid attention to optimization of land structure or layout of traffic
infrastructure, and ignored the interactions between land-use and transportation. In
this paper, the traffic environmental consumption is used as overall objective, and
urban land of structure planning model based on green transportation system
construction principle was proposed, in which the interaction of land-use and
transportation was taken into account. This provides evidence for the urban land
structure planning. (Jayajit, 2006 and Simon, 2007)
MODEL METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
Methodology: Land-use is divided into 10 categories in urban planning:
residential, public facility, industrial, housing, external transportation, road and
square, green, special, municipal, water region and other land. In order to describe
the interaction between land and transportation, three categories of urban land-use
was classified. The first category provides function of transportation, including
motor roads and slow traffic roads. The second is the main source of traffic
production, including public facilities, industrial and public facility land. The third
type generates far less traffic production, including green, special, housing,
municipal, square, parking, external transportation, water and other land (Wei, 2009).
Interaction between transportation and land-use is mainly reflected by the first two
categories, which are critical to green transportation system construction. As a result,
the former two categories are discussed mainly in the paper.
According to the definition of green transportation system, the hierarchy of
green transportation construction can be concluded as follow: to meet traffic demand
firstly, to minimize transportation environment consumption secondly, and to
maximize transportation efficiency thirdly. According to the hierarchy, time and
space consumption are used to meet first hierarchy demand. Due to the hierarchy
decline, Bi-level programming model is proposed (Li, 2007). (X, Y) is used as
variables in upper programming, in which X represents area vector of different land-
use and Y represents area vector of different road. （P, V） is used as variables in
level programming, in which P represents traffic structure vector and V represents
speed vector. Level programming provides P and V for upper programming under
the condition of time balance and space consumption.
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Figure1. Thread of urban land-use structure model.

Assumptions: The main function of model is engineering practice guidelines,
and it is impossible for any model to simulate the real situation completely. In order
to put the model into the practice conveniently, six assumptions are proposed to
simplify the model.
1. All the traffic production locates at the centroids of traffic zones, and the
distance between centroids are used as travel distance.
2. Travel distance of internal traffic zone is proportional to the equivalent radius
of traffic zone, and the proportional coefficient is constant.
3. Travel intensity of same land-use is equal in specific traffic zone.
4. Taxis and private cars are not distinguished due to their similar traffic
characteristics.
5. Traffic production and the area of green land, special land, public facility land,
housing land are modest and produce less production, which they are
determined by urban planning.
6. Rail transit does not take up any emission and road resources and does not
consider in the model. Therefore, traffic production refers to the production of
car, bus, bike, and foot.
UPPER PROGRAMMING
Objective Function. Urban environmental consumption is chosen for upper
programming, which includes consumption within and between traffic zones and is
defined as below:
min W = ∑ ∑ W + ∑ W ' (1)
ij i
i j i
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Where, W represents traffic environmental consumption (g), Wij represents

travel environmental consumption from zone i to j, and Wi ＇ represents traffic
environment within zone i.
Constraints
1) Urban land
Urban land area must meet total area constrains, and each area of land-use
should has lower bound and upper bound according to urban planning and is defined
as below:
⎧∑ xij + ∑ yij = Si
⎪ j j
⎪
⎨ xij min ≤ xi j ≤ xij max (2)
⎪
⎪ yij min ≤ yi j ≤ yij max
⎩
Where, xij represents area of land-use mode j in traffic zone i (m2), yij
represents area of road j in traffic zones i(m2), Si represents area of traffic zone i(m2),
xijmin, xijmax and yijmin, yijmax represents upper bound and lower bound area of land-use j
and road j of traffic zone i(m2).
2) Total traffic production
Traffic production of each traffic zone should be consistent with urban
planning and is defined as:
T = ∑ Ti (3)
i

Where, T and Ti are total traffic production according to urban planning

(times) and traffic production of traffic zone i according to land-use (times)
respectively.
Parameter Calibration
1) Wij and Wi＇
Traffic environment consumption has close relationship with traffic
distribution, traffic structure, carrying rate, distance, and emission factor which could
be defined as:
⎧ Qi j ⋅ Pm
⎪ ij
⎪
W = ∑ λm
⋅ dij ⋅ δW (Vm )
(4)
m
⎨
⎪W ' = Qi ' ⋅ Pm ⋅ f ( R ) ⋅ δ (V )
⎪⎩ i ∑ m λm i m W m

Where, Pm represents share rate of traffic mode m (%), λm represents carrying

rate of traffic mode m (person/pcu), dij represents distance between traffic zone i and
j (km), δW (Vm ) represents emission factor of traffic mode m (ml/km ⋅ veh), Ri
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represents equivalent radius of traffic zone i (m), and f m ( Ri ) represents travel

distance of traffic mode m in traffic zone i (m).

2) Ti and Ai
Traffic production is calibrated by land-use mode and travel intensity. While,
traffic attraction is calibrated by total traffic production according to weight and area
of different land-use mode. These two factors are defined as below:
⎧Ti = ∑ xiu ⋅ qiu
⎪
(5)
u
⎨
⎪ Ai = F ( X i , k j ) ⋅ ∑ Pk
⎩ k

Where, Ti represents traffic production in traffic zone i (times), qij represents

travel intensity of land-use mode j in traffic zone i (times/m2), Ai represents traffic
attraction, kj represents weight of different land-use mode, and F(Xi, kj) represents
function of traffic attraction weight.
3) Qij and Qi＇
Due to the alteration of land structure, it is difficult to calibrate traffic
distribution with OD database by gravity model. In this paper, traffic distribution is
calibrated by proportion of traffic attraction. It is also useful to calibrate traffic
production within the traffic zone which is defined as:
⎧ Aj ( X )
⎪ ij
Q = T ( X ) ⋅
∑j Aj ( X )
i
⎪⎪
⎨ (6)
⎪Q ' = T ( X ) ⋅ Ai ( X )
⎪ i
⎪⎩
i
∑i Ai ( X )
Where, Qij represents traffic distribution between traffic zone i to j (times),
and Qi ' represents travel frequency within traffic zone i.

4) δW (Vm )

Traffic emission factor is the importation parameter which associates upper

programming with level programming. According to the database surveyed by
Southeast University, emission factor of car can be calibrated by
δW (Vcar )＝167.154－5.2911v + 0.0662v 2－3 × 10−4 v 3 , and emission factor of bus can

be calibrated by δ W (Vbus )＝542.930－20.249v + 0.2881v 2－1.3 ×10−3 v 3 .

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LEVEL PROGRAMMING
Objective Function. Average speed is chosen for objective function of level
programming and transportation structure is used for weight vector and is defined as
below:
　　Max (PV) (7)
Where, P represents traffic structure vector: P= (Pcar, Pbus, Pfoot, Pbike), and V
represents traffic speed vector: V= (Vcar, Vbus, Vfoot, Vbike).
Constrains
1) Traffic time and space consumption
Traffic supply and transportation time and space consumption is the main
principle of green transportation system. This paper considers time and space
consumption of vehicle, bike, and pedestrian. These are defined as below:
⎧
⎪ Qi ' ⋅ Pcar
∑ Qij ⋅ Pcar
f car ( Ri ) i ( i ≠ j ) R
⎪ λ ⋅ l (Vcar ) ⋅ + ⋅ l (Vcar ) ⋅ i
Vcar λcar Vcar
⎪ car
⎪ Ai ⋅ Pcar R Q '⋅ P f (R )
⎪+ λ ⋅ l (Vcar ) ⋅ i + i bus ⋅ l (Vbus ) ⋅ bus i
Vcar λbus Vbus
⎪ car

⎪ ∑ Qij ⋅ Pbus
⎪ i (i ≠ j ) R A ⋅P R Y (8)
⎪+ ⋅ l (Vbus ) ⋅ i + i bus ⋅ l (Vbus ) ⋅ i ≤ i快行 ⋅ T
⎨ λbus Vbus λbus Vbus w机动车
⎪
⎪Qi ' ⋅ Pbike ⋅ l (Vbike ) ⋅ f bike ( Ri ) + ∑ Qij ⋅ Pbike ⋅ l (Vbike ) ⋅ Ri
⎪ Vbike i (i ≠ j ) Vbike
⎪
⎪+ A ⋅ P ⋅ l (V ) ⋅ Ri + Q ⋅ P ⋅ l (V ) ⋅ f foot ( Ri )
⎪ i bike bike
Vbike
i foot foot
Vfoot
⎪
⎪+Q ⋅ P ⋅ l (V ) ⋅ t + Q ⋅ P ⋅ l (V ) ⋅ t ≤ Yi慢行 ⋅ T
⎪ i bus foot 1 i car foot 2
w慢行
⎩

Where, l(V) represents space consumption (m), w represents width of roads

(m), t1 represents travel time of pedestrian from starting point to station and from
station to destination, and total time is 20min on average. t2 represents travel time of
car from starting point to parking area and from parking area to destination, and total
time is 10min on average, and T represents research time (h).
2) Accessibility
Accessibility constraint refers to the ability to use specific speed to reach
specific distance. Equivalent radius is used to describe the distance and average speed
which is used also to describe the specific speed. This is defined as below:
∑P
m
m ⋅ Vm ⋅ t ≥ r (9)

Where, t represents specific travel time which is define by urban planning (s),
and r represents equivalent radius of urban (m).
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3) Traffic Structure
Due to the gradual altering of traffic structure, traffic structure of each traffic
mode should have its upper and lower bound and is defined as:
⎧ Pm min ≤ Pm ≤ Pm max
⎪
⎨ P =1 (10)
⎪⎩∑m
m

Where, Pmmin and Pmmax represent the lower and upper bound of traffic
structure respectively.
4) Traffic Speed
Each traffic mode should have its upper and lower bound of speed from the
safety and efficiency perspective and is defined as:
Vm min ≤ Vm ≤ Vm max (11)

Where, Vmmin and Vmmax represent lower and upper bound of speed
respectively.
Parameter Calibration
1) l(Vm)
Traffic space consumption includes speed, vehicle length, and safe distance
which is defined as:
lm (Vm ) = lm' + Vm ⋅ t + l0 m (12)

Where, lm' represents safe distance (m), t represents reaction time of drivers (s)
which can be define 1~2s on average, and l0mrepresents vehicle length (m).
2) T
If the whole day time and space consumption are considered, T=24h would be
set, otherwise for considering peak hour time and space consumption, T=1h would be
set.
ALGORITHM
Because of the non-convexity and non-continuity of the bi-level programming,
genetic and simulated annealing algorithm (GA-SA) is used to settle the bi-level
programming. This algorithm includes the procedure of reproduction, crossing,
dissociation of GA algorithm, and state generating function of SA algorithm. . Main
steps are listed as following:
Step0: Initialization. Probability of crossing pc, dissociation pm, number of
chromosome N, and the maximum generation gmax of GA are set and number of
internal recycle M and initial temperature T0 of SA are set firstly. Set g=0, T=T0;
Step1: Set fitness function. Environment consumption is used as fitness function,
and urban planning scheme is used as initial result in the procedure of urban land
structure coding, in which U1=(…,ui1,…), i=1,2,…,N, and set g=1;
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Step2: Solve programming. Lower programming is solved with the result of upper
programming (Ug) and the fitness of each individual uig （ i =1,2,…,N ） can be
obtained. If g=gmax, the maximum fitness individual is the final result. Else, go
to STEP 3;
Step3: Reproduction is executed according to fitness;
Step4: Crossing is executed according to probability of crossing;
Step5: Dissociation is executed according to the probability of dissociation. Set
g=g+1. New population (Ug+1) is obtained. Then the fitness function of the new
population is calculated;
Step6: Set i=1, simulated annealing was executed to population Ug+1;
6-1: If i=N, go to Step7.Else, set loops h=1, go to 6-2;
6-2: New individual (Uig+1) which was produced by state generating function is
used in lower programming that helps to calculate the new fitness function;
6-3: New individual is accepted according to metropolis probability;
6-4: If k=M, set i=i+1, go to 6-1. Else, set h=h+1, go to 6-2;
Step7: Temperature retreat. Set T=0.5T, and go to Step2.
APPLICATION EXAMPLE
Take the case of Zhenjiang for example, which includes Lao Cheng, Nan Xu
and Ding Mao traffic zones. T=24h and t=15min are set in this case. Area of green,
special, municipal, and housing lands are determined according to urban planning.
Area of residential, industrial, and public facility lands and road area are determined
by proposed model.

Figure2. Area S (km2) and population R (thousand population).

Table1. Relative parameters of transportation.
Traffic Mode Bus Car Bike Foot
min 20 10 20 20
P (%)
max 60 40 40 40
V min 15 30 9 2
(km/h) max 40 80 15 6
λ — 15 2 1 1
f i ( Rm ) (km) Lao Cheng 9.6 12.0 2.4 1.2
Nan Xu 8.0 10.0 2.1 1.1
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Ding Mao 11.6 14.5 2.9 1.45

Table2. Relative parameters of urban-land use.

Land-use mode Industrial Residential Public Facility
ki 0.3 0.1 0.6
2
Lao xmin (km ) 0.1 9.1 4.1
Cheng xmax (km2) 0.6 13.0 8.4
2
Ding xmin (km ) 2.1 6.4 1.3
Mao xmax (km2) 4.2 11.0 2.7
2
Nan xmin (km ) 4.9 9.1 7.5
Xu xmax (km2) 7.3 13.0 10.3

Table3. Distance of traffic zones.

dij (km) Lao Cheng Nan Xu Ding Mao
Lao Cheng — 5.2 6.1
Nan Xu 5.2 — 5.7
Ding Mao 6.1 5.7 —

Table4. Conclusions of model.

Lao Nan Ding
Method Traffic Zone
Cheng Xu Mao
Industrial Land 0.6 3.3 4.9
Determined residential Land 10.3 6.4 11.5
by Public Facility Land 6.5 2.7 8.2
model Motor Road 2.3 2.0 2.7
Slow Traffic Road 1.5 1.1 1.7
Green Land 3.7 2.3 2.8
Special Land 0.2 0.1 0.1
Determined Municipal Land 0.3 0.2 0.2
By Housing Land 0.1 0.1 0.1
Urban External Transportation Land 0.1 0.3 0.3
Planning Parking Land 0.1 0.1 0.1
Square Land 0.1 0.1 0.1
Water and Other Land 16.9 9.4 3.0

From the result, it is obvious that the urban land structure determined by
model is more balance than the scheme of urban planning, and the area of road is
increasing by nearly 2%. From the perspective of constructing green transportation
system, we can transfer the feedback to urban land structure planning that: (1)
Increasing the mix degree of land-use moderately according to the variety of
conclusion and urban planning. (2) Increasing the rate of urban road area which is
better to attain 15%.
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CONCLUSIONS
Urban land structure has close relationship with social and economic nature,
industrial and city space feature. Method combined with Quantitative and qualitative
analysis can construct the engineering practice effectively rather than single
mathematical model. The bi-level programming model that proposed in this paper
can be used to transfer feedback to urban land planning from the perspective of
achieving green transportation idea. The proposed model has three advantages as
follows:
(1) Urban land-use structure, traffic mode, and traffic speed was considered
simultaneously, that are embodied in the interaction of transportation and land-use.
(2) Traditional model construction which leads to instability of capability of
environment is improved, and the conclusions of proposed model can fully embody
stratified requirements of green transportation system construction.
(3) Time and space consumption of traffic flow was used as model constraints.
Results of model not only meet the balance of traffic demand and supply, but also
embody time and space consumption features of traffic flow.
There is more potential work to be done for this research. Transportation and
environment consumption features of more kinds of vehicle should be considered.
Traffic production and travel distance should be calibrated more precisely by
considering the travel features of different traffic modes.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This work is supported by traffic research project of Jiang Su. (JS09R04).
REFERENCE
David, B. and Richard, M. (2008). Use of ecological footprinting to explore
alternative transport policy scenarios in an Irish city-region. Transportation
Research Part D. 13(5): 315-322.
Haibo, C. and Margaret, B. (2008). Classification of road traffic and roadside
pollution concentrations for assessment of personal exposure.
Environmental Modelling & Software. 23 (3): 282-287.
Jayajit, C. (2006). Evaluating the environmental justice impacts of transportation.
improvement projects in the US. Transportation Research Part D. 11(5):
315-323.
Li, T. S., W, L. and Li, L. (2007). Theory and application of algorithm on the single
and bi-level integer programming. Science Press, Beijing, China, 2007.
Maxoulis, C. and Kalogirou, S. (2008). Cyprus Energy Policy: The road to the 2006
world renewable energy congress trophy. Renewable Energy. 33(3): 355-365
Simon, K. Jamie, P. and Peyman, Z. R. (2007). Driven to injustice? Environmental
justice. and vehicle pollution in Christchurch. New Zealand. 12(4): 254-263.
Wei, Y. and Zhao, M. (2009). Urban spill over vs. local urban sprawl: Entangling
land-use regulations in the urban growth of China's megacities. Land use
policy. 26(4): 1031-1045.
Yuval, B. F. (2008). The impact of a forced reduction in traffic volumes on urban air
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 86
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pollution. Atmospheric Environment. 42 (3): 428-440.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 87
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A Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Aircraft Selection for Commuter

Airlines Based on IEDEA Model

Qing LIU1 and Tongshui WU2

1
College of Civil Aviation, NanJing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,
NanJing; PH: 13662010463; email: liuqing@nuaa.edu.cn
2
College of Economics and Management Civil Aviation university of China, Tianjin;
email: tswu@cauc.edu.cn.

ABSTRACT
The commercial airlines are challenged by various factors, especially for a
newly built commuter airlines. To select appropriate aircraft which flies in
mountainous and the desert areas must strictly meet the operations and security
regulations. The aim of this article is to use comprehensive evaluation models based
on Information Entropy and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to analyze suitable
choices of the evaluation and selection of a fleet of aircrafts for local commuter
airlines. . The output of the study verifies efficiency and its airworthiness of the
aircraft, which are important to the commuter air carrier within the given range and
payload. In the end, some recommendations are given for selecting the suitable
aircraft type.

I. INTRODUCTION
Fleet planning is very important for any airline. Fleet planning determines
what type of aircraft the airline should buy, by understanding basic elements of fleet
planning one would essentially understand the airline needs and operation parameters.
There are several factors that influence the buying of a new aircraft that does not
depend on fleet planning, such as size, capabilities, cost and route performance.
On most routes airlines’ choice of aircraft is relatively limited, partly due to
the bundling of size and range in aircraft development (Wei and Hansen, 2003). An
analysis of short-haul routes around the world revealed that the London–Amsterdam
route is the general route while the Tokyo–Sapporo route is the exception (Givoni
and Rietveld, 2009). In general, airlines opt for high frequency and smaller aircraft
rather than low frequency and larger aircraft, especially when demand is relatively
high on short-haul flights. In most cases, research on air transport includes aircraft
size as one of many explanatory variables in the context of airlines or airport
operation, and here explaining aircraft size is the focus. In addition, most of the
research which considers aircraft size is based on the US domestic market and often
only duopoly markets are considered (Wei and Hansen, 2005), (Ssamula, 2004)
developed a model that calculates the operating costs incurred by 11 aircraft
commonly used by airlines on a specified route in Africa. (Wail, 2006) simulated the
evaluation and selection of a fleet of aircraft for an airline located in Jeddah, Saudi
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Arabia, in an assumed network that includes both local and international destinations.
The method and process he used in the selection of aircraft will be referred in this
paper.

II. THE AIRCRAFT SELECTION PROBLEMS

A. The Process of Aircraft Selection
Commuter airlines provide links from smaller cities to large hub airports and
point-to-point service over lightly traveled routes. On many routes served by
commuter aircraft, the distance flown does not seem to allow for the altitude and
speed benefits that the selected aircraft provides. In fact, the commuter fleet is
acknowledged as being profitable, but limited in speed and range. This would
suggest that there are main important objectives to be met by commuter aircraft.
First and foremost, aircrafts should meet the need of the regulations. The
second, selection of aircraft type must fit route performance; Next, it would
minimize operational cost for the airline. Overall, aircraft selection includes four
main steps, which can be generalized by process of Figure 1.

Figure 1. The process of aircraft selection.

Step1: Regulations and Rules Analysis

Commuter aircrafts are those aircrafts which are operated under Chinese Civil
Aviation Regulations (CCAR) Part 23. For this study, commuter air transportation is
considered as a transportation mode that provides short-haul routes air service, with
an established route network of schedule or irregular flight schedule. The commuter
would likely operate under CCAR Part 135. So the selected aircraft must meet the
regulations in any situations.
Step2: Detailed Aircraft Route Performance Analysis
In the previous step the candidate aircrafts have been identified. Therefore,
the performance of each aircraft can be known, the airfield and en-route capabilities
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of these aircrafts will be examined. After setting up some ground rules such as time
for taxi-in, time for taxi-out, time for start-up, the reserve fuel, the assumed
alternative airport…etc for domestic local routes. Each route parameter will be exact
as an index for evaluating with respective weight. The procedure of route analysis is
shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. The procedure of route analysis.

Step3: Aircraft Cost and Efficiency Analysis

The available seat-km represents the total quantity of service on the route
which is defined as the product of annual aircraft-km and the aircraft capacity. The
utilization of an aircraft is an important factor that needs to be calculated, since the
major standing costs incurred on the aircraft should be paid over its economic life.
This step indicates that the economic suitability for each commuter aircraft on
certain stage is the length or cost per trip, and then some assumptions must be made
for economic analysis. Here we use airline direct operation cost and efficiency as
evaluation parameters such as buy price, unit cost, cost of each passenger, and time
value.
Step4: Evaluation and Recommendation
In the last step we should identify the preferred fleet choice by
comprehensive evaluation model and give suggestion for local commuter airlines.
B. Evaluation Index System of Commuter Aircraft
The index system is the basic part of aircraft comprehensive evaluation, the
rationality of index system directly influences the evaluation results. Then the index
system should reflect all the influence factors in selecting an aircraft. According to
field investigation and correlative data, the potential decisive factors diagram is
shown in Figure 3.
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Figure 3. Commuter aircraft evaluation index system.

III. COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION MODEL BASED ON INFORMATION ENTROPYAND DEA

A. Information Entropy Model

Assume there are m aircrafts R = ( R1 , R2 ,L , Rn ) to be valued, and

n is the number of be valued index. So can get the evaluation matrix:

⎛ r11 r12 L r1m ⎞
⎜ ⎟
r r22 L r2 m ⎟
Rij = ⎜ 21
⎜L L L L ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎝ rn1 rn1 L rnm ⎠
th
r is the value for the i aircraft’s j th index. For a certain j th

index, more different the ij r ( i = 1, 2,L , m ), more large the information

of the evaluation distinguishing. It can be measured by information

entropy. Its function is:
m
E j = − k ∑ ( fij ln fij ) ( j = 1,2,L ,n ) (1)
i =1

Principal operations cost

1
cost of passenger kilometers (CPK) =
volume of passenger transportation
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m
Attention: fij = rij / ∑ rij , k = 1/ ln m , and suppose fij = 0 then
i =1

fij ln fij = 0 We Can also choose k and make 0 ≤ E j ≤ 1 , and this kind of

standardizing is very necessary while carry on comparison . The total

entropy of evaluation matrix is defined as followed:
n
E' = ∑ E j (2)
j =1

⎛ ⎞
ω j = (1 − E j ) / ⎜ n − ∑ E j ⎟
n
And (3)
⎝ j =1 ⎠

ω j can measure the distinguishing ability of each index.

B. Comprehensive Evaluation Model of IEDEA

Assume that there are s inputs and r outputs, and s + r = m , the
weight vector of the inputs and outputs are: A = ( A1 , A2 ,L , As ) and

B = ( B1 , B2 ,L , Br ) .

In order to establish the IEDEA model based on information entropy

and DEA, we can use formulation (2) to set input and output index weights
A and B matrices, then define the evaluation model in C 2 R as:

AT Yk
max T
B Xk
⎧ AT Yl
⎪ T ≤ 1 l =1,2,L ,n
⎪ B Xl (4)
⎪⎪ AT Y
S .T . ⎨ T l ≤ V p
⎪ B Xl
⎪0 ≤ ε ≤ Ai i =1,2,L ,s 0 ≤ ε ≤ B j j =1,2,L ,r
⎪
⎪⎩

In (4) ε : non-Archimedes infinitesimal , Vp is the optimum value

of C 2 R .
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1
Set o = , α = oA, β = oB , then α = ( oA1 , oA2 ,L , oAr ) ,
T
T
B Xk

β = ( oB1 , oB2 ,L , oBs ) .

T

Equation 4 is transformed to an equivalent linear programming

model as:
max β T Yk
⎧α T X l − β T Yl ≥ 0 l =1,2,L ,n
⎪ (5)
S .T . ⎨α T X k =1
⎪α > 0, β > 0
⎩
IV. CASE STUDY
Chinese air transportation market for commuter aircraft would rapidly grow
in the next few years. The two cases study illustrated here are Xinjiang and Inner
Mongolia province, where Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) planed to
carry out commuter pilots. Two general aviation companies wish to provide
commuter services for the pilot region; they decide to select one or two commuter
aircraft types. Prior to selection, six aircraft candidates are studied in the IE model
and IE-DEA comprehensive model.
Before selecting aircraft for air service, some factors must be taken into
account, such as geography, climate, level of economic development, humanities and
aviation infrastructure. Under the proposed airline routes, the performance of the
aircraft route capabilities should be analyzed first.

Figure 4. Routes to be exercised by general aviation companies.

From Figure 4, it can be concluded that the value of evaluation index system
are different between Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia Alashan. As showed in Table 1 ,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 93
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the passenger and geographic characteristic urge airlines to select special aircraft
according to air route condition, so the index values for evaluation system are
distinct. The results evaluated by the IE model are completely differently emerged in
Table 2 and Table 3.

Table 1. The difference environment and route factors of two regions.

Region air route Character Aircraft capabilities needed
long distance high speed; comfortable;
Karamay-kanas
blowy airproof; loading rate
long distance high speed; comfortable;
Karamay-Yining
mountainous airproof; loading rate
Narat-Yining excursion low cost; safety
XinJiang Narat-Zhaosu excursion low cost; safety
mountainous
Urumechi-Zhaosu low cost; airproof
excursion
Bayinbuluke-Ku’erle excursion low cost; safety
desert
Bayinbuluke-Tarim high speed; low cost; safety
long distance
long distance high speed; airproof;
Ejinaqi-RBanner
altiplano comfortable; loading rate
Alashan
long distance high speed; airproof;
LBanner -RBanner
altiplano comfortable; loading rate
The calculated information entropy of the ten indexes are shown in Table 2.
Table 2. The information entropy values and order of indexes.
Index
Region MTOW TOD LD SEC CA CR BP CPUH CPK TV
Value
IE 0.88 0.72 0.79 0.89 0.89 0.86 0.71 0.86 0.88 0.78
Xinjiang
ωj 0.06 0.16 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.17 0.08 0.07 0.13
IE
0.09 0.09 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.10
Alashan
ωj 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.09

The rank of the six aircrafts are shown in Table 3.

Table 3. The rank of aircrafts by information entropy evaluation model.

Region Aircraft Cessna208B Y-12 GA200 SAAB340 PC-12 PC-6

Result
10

Xinjiang ∑ω
j =1
j Ej
0.589 0.390 0.434 0.330 0.647 0.587
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Rank 2 5 4 6 1 3
10

∑j =1
ω jE j
0.381 0.283 0.417 0.661 0.544 0.267
Alashan
Rank 4 5 3 1 2 6
From the evaluation results, we can determine that PC-12 and Cessna208B
have lower cost and accidents rates, in XinJiang aircraft selection.
Passenger comfort index, time value and loading rate are mostly considered in
Alashan aircraft type selection.
We also find in Table 3, that the rank values of six aircraft in Alashan are
distinctly classified, while the rank values of Cessna208B and PC-6 are too similar to
choose in XinJiang. When the attribute such as price has changed, little difference
can be made by the IE model. So it is necessary to consider the weight of models on
the basis of input-output efficiency.
Traditional Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) model is a better input-output
efficiency evaluation method, we intends to use CCR and IEDEA model to evaluate
the Xinjiang aircraft selection. The results are shown in table 4.
Table 4. The results compared by CCR model and IEDEA.
Index IE CCR IEDEA
DMU value Rank Efficiency Rank Efficiency Rank
DMU 1
0.589 2 0.892 2 0.525 2
(Cessna208B)
DMU 2 (Y-12) 0.390 5 0.770 3 0.301 5
DMU 3 (GA200) 0.434 4 0.745 4 0.323 4
DMU 4 (SAAB340) 0.330 6 0.679 5 0.224 6
DMU 5 (PC-12) 0.647 1 1.000 1 0.548 1
DMU 6 (PC-6) 0.587 3 1.000 1 0.498 3
By Comparing Table 3 with Table 4, we can say that the efficiency values
calculated by IEDEA model are less than those calculated by CCR model; in Table 4,
there are two aircrafts with the same rank, so the CCR model can’t rank them
appropriately; and in table 4, there are none valid aircraft efficiency value, and the
rank of the six aircrafts is DMU5>DMU1>DMU6>DMU3>DMU2>DMU4.
Therefore, IEDEA model is better than IE model and CCR model in DMUs ranking.

V. CONCLUSIONS
Therefore in the selection of commuter aircraft , it appears that route
performance and cost efficiency are the two importatnt factors to be considered. By
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choosing a suitable evaluation index system and establishing available evaluation of

models, the airline operator can draw some conclusions that different environmental
factor affect the results of the aircraft selection to large extent, especially cost,
security, comfort index and load factor. The two case studies proved that the
conclusions are consistent with the actual data.
An effective comprehensive evaluation model is introduced by using
information entropy in DEA method. To establish and provide an IEDEA model for
general aviation companies in commuter aircrafts selecting is an innovative way
which can make better decisions about the aircraft type and size that best fits the
market requirements. The IEDEA model has preserved the advantage of the DEA
method; meanwhile, it has avoided the experts being involved in DEA model. At last,
the model has been used to evaluate commuter aircraft efficiency in Xinjiang and
Inner Mongolia, China. The evaluation results have shown that values of the IEDEA
model give are better than individual information entropy and CCR model in DMUs
ranking.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors wish to thank the anonymous referees for their careful reading
and constructive comments on the paper. This work was supported by Key Program
of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.60979021).

REFERENCES
DING Bin, ZANG Xiaoning, JIANG Li(2008).“Third-party Logistics Provider
Efficiency Evaluation Based on Information Entropy-DEA Model”. 2008
International Seminar on Future Information Technology and Management
Engineering, pp.166-170.
Givoni, M., Rietveld, P.,(2009). “Airlines’ choice of aircraft size–explanations and
implications.” Transportation Research A,43, 500–510.
Ssamula, B(2004). “Developing a cost model for running an airline service.”MEng
dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria.
Wail I. Harasani.(2006) “Evaluation and Selection of a Fleet of Aircraft for a Local
Airline.” JKAU: Eng. Sci., Vol 17 No. 2, pp: 3 - 16 (2006A.D. /1427 A.H.)
Wei, W., Hansen, M.,(2003). “Cost economics of aircraft size.” Journal of Transport
Economics and Policy,37, 279–296.
Wei, W., Hansen, M.,(2005). “Impact of aircraft size and seat availability on airlines’
demand and market share in duopoly markets.” Transportation Research E,41,
315–327.
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An Urban Traffic Assignment Method Considering Signal Delays at Intersections

Ying ZENG1, Yingying MA2, Yu BAI3 Xiaoguang YANG4

1
Guanzhou Road Traffic Engineering Research Center, 3 Fuqian Road, Guangzhou 510030, China;
PH (86) 13774201739; email: zyclear@gmail.com
2
School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, 381
Wushan Road, Guangzhou 510641, China; PH (86) 13564616900; email:
to_mayingying@yahoo.com
3
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; PH (FAX)
(86) 21-69584674-806; email: rabbitby@263.net
4
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; PH (FAX)
(86) 21-69589475; email: yangxg@tongji.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
With the development of cities and the application of ITS technologies,
methods can give more accurate results of traffic assignment by considering both
travel costs through road links and signal delays at intersections. These methods are
needed in urban traffic planning and management. Practical signal control policy and
delay models are introduced in the traditional user equilibrium assignment model.
Also, a new asymmetric network user equilibrium model is proposed. An
arc-labeling algorithm is used instead of the classic node-labeling algorithm in
searching the shortest paths. General procedures to solve the problem are presented
and the model is solved by a diagonalization algorithm. Finally, the numerical
analysis showed that it is significant to include the signal delay in urban traffic
assignment, and the developed algorithm has good performance on solving this
problem.

INTRODUCTION
Traffic assignment step assigns traffic demand to the links of a network. For
an urban road system, drivers traveling from an origin to a destination react to the
existing traffic condition by choosing paths so that their individual costs are
minimized. This basic principle of traffic assignment is known as User Equilibrium
(UE) (Wardrop, 1952). In traditional traffic assignment models, the total travel time is
treated as a representative of travel costs. When calculating the total travel time, the
signal delays of vehicles at intersections are usually ignored or simplified mainly due
to three reasons. Firstly, the traditional traffic assignment models were designed to be
used in the traffic planning of relatively large areas. Namely, they were used to solve
the traffic assignment problems on the backbone networks. In these cases, signal
delays at intersections constitute a small part in the total travel time of vehicles.
Therefore, signal dealyes would have little difference in assignment results whether
they were included or not. Secondly, additional data is needed in order to estimate
signal delays accurately. Data collection is costly, especially in the case of large
roadway network. Thirdly, limitations of the solution methods make it hard to add
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signal delays in these assignment models (Sheffi 1985).

Development of cities and the urban traffic problems is becoming more and
more complicated and people are realizing that traffic planning is not only a
macroscopic problem, but microscopic issues should be considered. For example, at
district level traffic planning, the research scope is smaller but more detailed, and the
accuracy of assignment results is more important. On the other hand, with the increase
of motor vehicle traffic volume, local road network becomes more congested and the
proportion of signal delays in total travel time increases to the extend to influence the
distribution of network traffic flow. Many researchers and traffic engineers start to
investigate the microscopic traffic problems such as traffic management, operation
and design from a systematic point of view. The relation between these problems and
traffic assignment is getting closer. It is significant to Developing an effective traffic
assignment method which can deal with signal delays and provide more accurate
resultsis considered to be of significance.
In the past decades, a number of researches focused on combining traffic
assignment models and signal delays together. There are mainly three topics related to
this problem: 1) construction of new models and their solution algorithms (Heydecker,
1983; Meneguzzer 1995; O.A. Nielsen, 1998; Ren, 2003; Ren and Wang, 2006; Zhu
et al. 2009); 2) delay models of intersections used in traffic assignment (Winter, 2002;
Zhen Ding, 2009); and 3) shortest path problem with signal delays at
intersections(Caldwell, 1961; Kirby and Potts, 1969; Ren et al. 2004; Ziliaskopoulos
and Mahmassani, 1996). In order to include signal delays in traffic assignment models,
some researchers tried to improve the intersection description in a road network. A
commonly-used method is to expand the network (Meneguzzer, 1995; O.A. Nielsen,
1998; Sheffi, 1985) by considering each approach or exit of an intersection as a
virtual node and each turning movement as a virtual link shown in Figure 1 on the next
page. This method is capable of dealing with signal delays without change the
structure of the traditional assignment models. Also, it has some obvious weaknesses
such as increasing the network size sharply (e.g., a four-leg intersection, which is
usually presented by only one node, will be expanded as 8 nodes and 12 links).
Moreover, this kind of virtual networks will be hard to combine with signal control
policies.
In recent years, more studies focused on developing new models for traffic
assignment based on the original network description method (i.e., consider an
intersection as one node in the network). In these models, travel costs are generally
considered as the sum of the travel costs on links and the delays at intersections
(Gartner and Al-Malik, 1996; Sun, 1999). Ren and Wang (2006) proposed a new
model for traffic assignment with turning delays and discussed its solution algorithm
with numerical examples. However, the authors only use simplified delay models in
their examples instead of practical signal delay models (Ren 2003; Ren and Wang
2006). In conclusion, previous studies presented a good foundation for solving this
problem. Theories and methods need to be further combined with practical signal
control models.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 98
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Figure 1. Expanded ntersection llustration.

This paper presents an urban traffic assignment method considering practical
signal control and delay at intersections. This method combines the user equilibrium
theory with the signal control policy and delay models in traffic assignment,
improving assignment results accuracy.
PROBLEM FORMULATION
Problem analysis. Travel cost function of traditional UE models for traffic
assignment is usually separable and symmetric. It means the flow on a link only
influences the travel cost on that linkor between two different links. This UE models
are known a symmetric UE models, which have equivalent mathematical programs
(Beckmann et al. 1956). In the formulation of traffic assignment models with signal
delay, a key point that makes things different is how to treat the turning delays at
intersections. If we assume every vehicle driving through the same intersection has
the same delay, irrespective of it is origin and destination, the problem will be much
simpler but further from the truth.
In the real case, vehicles signal delay under different movements (turnings) at
an intersection varies according to the flow pattern, signal timing, geometric
conditions, and other features of the intersection.Also, most of the signals used in
urban roads are multi pre-timed or traffic responsive, so the signal timing of
intersections will change with the flow pattern of it.
To formulate the traffic assignment problem in the real case, we keep the
description of network unchanged and propose a new UE model with the practical
signal control policy and delay model. This model is non-separable and asymmetric.
Before introducing the details of the model, the travel cost function and the control
policy adopted in this studywill be discussed.
Travel cost function. The total travel cost of a user contains two parts:
travel time through all the links on the path and signal delays at all the intersections
on the path, shown as (1).

(1)

Where, is the set of links; is the set of traffic movements (e.g., left-turn,
through and right-turn) at intersections; is the set of origins; is the set of
destinations; is a certain link, ; is a the movement from link to ;
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 99
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is a certain origin; is a certain destination; is the set of paths from to ;

is the travel cost of the th path from to (s); is the travel time through
(s); is a statement parameter, which equals to 1 if is on the th path from
to , otherwise 0; is the signal delay of (s); is a statement
parameter, which equals to 1 if is on the th path from to , otherwise 0。
The BPR (Bureau of Public Road) function (equation number 2) is chosen as
the link travel time function (i.e. mentioned above.

(2)

Where, is the travel time of the link (s); is the free flow travel time (s);
is the volume on the link (veh/h); is the capacity of the link (veh/h).
The HCM 2000 (TRB 2000) delay model (i.e. mentioned above) is chosen
in this study. The HCM 2000 model is one of the most widely used models to
calculate signal delays and is improved from Akcelik’s delay model (Akcelik, 1988).
This model is suitable for relatively static traffic problems (e.g. traffic planning) under
both unsaturated and oversaturated conditions (Engelbrecht et al. 1997).
Equations number (3) and (4) shows the HCM 2000 delay model for a single lane
group at signalized intersection, (4) is the detailed expression of (3).
(3)

(4)

Where, is the signal delay (s/veh); is the uniform delay (s/veh); is

the progression adjustment factor; is the incremental delay (s/veh); is the
initial queue delay (s/veh); is the signal cycle length (s); is the green ratio;
is the volume to capacity (v/c) ratio; is the duration of analysis period (h); is the
incremental delay adjustment for actuated control; is the incremental delay
adjustment for the filtering or metering by upstream signals; is the capacity
(veh/h).
In this research paper oversaturated condition and signal progression are not
considered, so we have , , , and .
The signal control policy. The signal timing models of Webster (Webster,
1958), which is called equisaturation policy is chosen in this study. It is a classic
signal control policy and widely used in the world.
New asymmetric UE model for traffic assignment. As mentioned above,
the asymmetric travel cost function will make the UE model asymmetric. Compared
to the traditional UE models, the asymmetric one has no equivalent mathematical
program (Abdulaal and LeBlanc, 1979). According to Dafermos (1980) the UE
problem can be described as a variational inequality (VI) model without imposing any
symmetry conditions (Dafermos 1980). A certain flow pattern reaches user
equilibrium only if
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(5)

Where, is the vector of the cost function.

In our case, set as the vector of the link travel time and as the
vector of the signal delays. Then we get the VI form of our new asymmetric UE
model for traffic assignment, as shown in (6).
(6)

Dafermos also found uniqueness of equilibrium if the cost function is strictly

monotone. This condition can be satisfied with an assumption that the delay at one
intersection will not be dependent on flows at other intersections (Smith, 1982). In
this study, this assumption can be satisfied because we do not consider oversaturated
conditions or signal progression, as a result, the delay of one intersection will mainly
depend on its own flows. This ensures the existence and uniqueness of the solution.
SOLUTION ALGORITHMS
Algorithm for searching the shortest path with signal delay. The critical
problem in traffic assignment is to find the shortest path between the origin and
destination of a travel. Generally speaking, searching for the shortest paths will
consume most of the calculating time in the whole process of traffic assignment.
Therefore, it is vital to use an efficient algorithm to solve it.
Traditional traffic assignment models, in which only the travel costs of links
are considered, uses Dijkstra Algorithm, which is known as “label-correcting”
algorithm (Sheffi, 1985). It finds the shortest path from a given origin node to all
other nodes in the network based on the Bellman’s rule (Bellman, 1958). So, it can
also be called as “node-labeling” algorithm. If the signal delays at intersections are
included and the network is not expanded as Figure 1, the “label-correcting”
algorithm and the Bellman’s rule will no longer work. To solve the problem, Kirby
and Potts (1969) improved the Bellman’s rule and proposed a new label-correcting
idea that uses links (or arcs) instead of nodes and finds the shortest path from a given
origin link to all other links in the network. It is known as “arc-labeling” algorithm
(Ren, 2003).
The arc-labeling algorithm essentially scans the network links in an iterative
manner. At each iteration the algorithm tries to find a path from the origin link (in the
actual operation, we build a virtual link whose tail is the origin node as the origin link)
to the link being scanned that is better (shorter) than the current path. The algorithm
terminates when no better path can be found from the origin link to any of the other
links in the network. There are three important variables: 1) the label of this link, ,
which is the distance from the origin link to this link along the current shortest path; 2)
this link’s predecessor link, , which is the link just preceding this link along the
current shortest path; 3) the sequence list, , which includes all links that have yet to
be examined as well as the links requiring further examination. The sequence list is
used to help manage and keep track of the links. The flowchart of the arc-labeling
algorithm is shown as Figure 2. Where, is the distance from link to .
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Initialization
Let all L=∞，P=0

Put the origin link into S and let its label, L0=0

Choose a link, a, from S as the

objective link

Choose an adjacent link, b, of the

objective link

Let Lb=La+dab,
Pb=a, and put No Lb>La+dab?
link b into S
Yes
Yes

Is there other
Remove link a
No adjacent links to
from S
scan?

Is S a null
Yes End
set? No

Figure 2. The flowchart of arc-labeling algorithm.

Solution algorithm for the asymmetric UE model. Although there is no
equivalent mathematical program to the asymmetric UE model, it is still possible to
solve under certain conditions. In this study, we use the diagonalization algorithm to
solve the proposed asymmetric UE model in equation (6). Previous studies proved
that the diagonalization algorithm is an effective algorithm to solve this kind of
problems (Abdulaal and LeBlanc, 1979; Meneguzzer, 1995; Sheffi, 1985; Smith and
van Vuren, 1993). The detailesof the procedure is shown as follows:
 STEP 0: Initialization. Set the iteration counter . Let
and search the shortest path between each OD pairs. Then, perform
all-or-nothing (AON) traffic assignment and get the initial flow pattern
;
 STEP 1: Update the signal timing with ;
 STEP 2: Diagonalization. Solve a UE problem by minimizing equation (7)

(7)

Where, is the series number of links (including movements at

intersection), is the total number of links. The solution yields a new
flow pattern ;
 STEP 3: Convergence test. If the convergence criterion shown in equation
(8) is met, stop iteration; otherwise, set and go to STEP 1
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 102
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(8)

Where, is a positive value which controls the accuracy of assignment

results.
NUMERICAL ANALYSIS
To validate the model proposed in this paper and test the performance of the
solution algorithms, numerical analysis is given with the road network shown in
Figure 3 below. Square symbols denote intersections and the circular symbols denote
the origins and destinations. The network consists of 9 intersections that are all
signalized, 12 OD pairs and 48 links.

19 20 21
3000

3000
4500
36

30
39

3000 3000 3000 3000

18 40 1 39 2 53 3 43 10
3000

3000
4500
39

37

39

4500 4500 4500 4500

17 32 4 49 5 50 6 27 11
3000

3000
4500
57

52
53

3000 3000 3000 3000

16 30 7 43 8 57 9 29 12
3000

3000
4500

Legend
56
39

47

Link capacity (veh/h)

3000
15 14 13 1 39 2
Free flow travel time (s)

Figure 3. The example network for numerical analysis.

The two roads lying in the center (the road from node 20 to 14 and from node
17 to 11) have 3 lanes on both directions, while the other roads only have 2 lanes in
both directions. The capacity of all roads is equal to 1500 veh/h/lane. The capacity
and free flow travel time of the links between the same two nodes are equal and
marked in Figure 3. The OD matrix is shown in Table 1 on the next page. The
approaches at all intersections are widened as: the approaches connected to a 2-lane
link has 4 lanes, while the approaches connected to a 3-lane link has 5 lanes. Number
of lanes for exits at all intersections is the same as the connecting link. The cycle
lengthof all intersections are fixed as 120s and with 4 phases and the green time for
each phase will change with the flow pattern.
We set , and then perform traffic assignment with both traditional
UE model and the proposed model in this study respectively on the example network.
The results are shown in Figure 4 below. It is clear that the differences of the two
assignments are significant. According to the comparison, whether considering the
signal delay at intersections will greatly influence the results of urban traffic
assignment.
To test the performance of the solution algorithms, we run each model ten
times and calculate the average calculating time for them. The results show that the
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average calculating time of the traditional model without signal delay is 0.02s, while
the new model with signal delay is 0.22s. Although, the average time is ten times
longer than before when considering signal delay in traffic assignment, the absolute
speed is satisfactory.
Table 1. The OD matrix for numerical analysis.
D
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
O
10 0 0 0 60 120 60 120 180 180 60 120 60
11 0 0 0 75 120 75 270 360 270 75 120 75
12 0 0 0 60 120 60 180 180 120 60 120 60
13 60 120 60 0 0 0 60 120 60 120 180 180
14 75 120 75 0 0 0 75 120 75 270 360 270
15 60 120 60 0 0 0 60 120 60 180 180 120
16 120 180 180 60 120 60 0 0 0 60 120 60
17 270 360 270 75 120 75 0 0 0 75 120 75
18 180 180 120 60 120 60 0 0 0 60 120 60
19 60 120 60 120 180 180 60 120 60 0 0 0
20 75 120 75 270 360 270 75 120 75 0 0 0
21 60 120 60 180 180 120 60 120 60 0 0 0

19 20 21 19 20 21

1440
1440
1440
1440

960
960

960
960
960
960

960
960

960 1500 822 960 960 877 570 960

18 960 1 1545 2 848 3 960 10 18 960 1 1737 2 1665 3 960 10
1804
1569

1943
1451
1932
1185

1913

848
591
952
978
591

1440 660 2808 1440 1440 1667 1925 1440

17 1440 4 705 5 2827 6 1440 11 17 1440 4 1639 5 1572 6 1440 11
1830

1380
1785

1425

1736

1614
1524

1545
885
795

904

803

960 1890 420 960 960 1521 1561 960

16 960 7 1800 8 375 9 960 12 16 7 8 9 12
960 688 819 960
1440
1440

1440
1440
960
960

960
960

960
960

960
960

15 14 13 15 14 13

(a) Without signal delay (b) With signal delay

Figure 4. Comparison of the traffic assignment results.
CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS
This paper presented an urban traffic assignment method based on a newly
asymmetric user equilibrium model considering signal delay at intersections. The
practical signal control policy and delay models were introduced in the classic UE
model. As a result, the way how traffic flow on a path influences its travel cost would
be totally changed. The relation between the two is no longer simply a linear or
non-linear function but depends on the mechanism of signal control policy. An
arc-labeling algorithm was used in searching the shortest paths and the
diagonalization algorithm was used to solve the model. The new model was compared
with the traditional traffic assignment model without signal delay in a grid
road network. It was found from the numerical analysis that the proposed method is
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effective in solving the traffic assignment problem with signal delay at intersections.
The numerical analysis also showed the significant differences between the
assignment results with and without signal delay.
The study combines both theoretical and practical needs, and makes it possible
for traffic planning to investigate more microscopic issues. Moreover, the proposed
method may also be helpful in solving problems of traffic management and design.
The new model can be expanded and easyly used in cases such as delay model (e.g.,
the ones for stop sign controlled intersections and roundabouts) and other routing
policies (e.g., the system optimization and the stochastic user optimization).
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This study is supported by the projects of Natural Science Foundation of
China (NSFC), whose grant numbers are 50708080 and 70631002.
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Bellman, R. (1958). "On a Routing Problem." Quarterly Applied Mathematics, 16,
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Caldwell, T. (1961). "On finding minimum routes in a network with turn penalties."
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Engelbrecht, R., Fambro, D., Rouphail, N., and Barkawi, A. (1997). "Validation of
Generalized Delay Model for Oversaturated Conditions." Transportation
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Gartner, N., and Al-Malik, M. (1996). "Combined Model for Signal Control and
Route Choice in Urban Traffic Networks." Transportation Research Record:
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Heydecker, B. G. (1983). "Some Consequences of Detailed Junction Modeling in
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Kirby, R. F., and Potts, R. B. (1969). "The minimum route problem for networks with
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Meneguzzer, C. (1995). "An equilibrium route choice model with explicit treatment of
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O.A. Nielsen, R. D. F. N. S. (1998). "Stochastic User Equilibrium Traffic Assignment
with Turn-delays in Intersections." International Transactions in Operational
Research, 5(6), 555-568.
Ren, G. (2003). "The traffic assignment algorithm with traffic management and
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control," PhD dissertation, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.

Ren, G., and Wang, W. (2006). "A turn-based algorithm for the logit traffic
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Sheffi, Y. (1985). Urban Transportation Networks: Equilibrium Analysis with
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Smith, M. J. (1982). "Junction interactions and monotonicity in traffic assignment."
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 16(1), 1-3.
Smith, M. J., and van Vuren, T. (1993). "Traffic Equilibrium with Responsive Traffic
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Sun, W. (1999). "Optimization of urban traffic control strategies by a network design
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TRB. (2000). Highway Capacity Manual 2000, Transportation Research Board,
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Wardrop, J. G. (1952). "Some theoretical aspects of road traffic research."
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Webster, F. V. (1958). Traffic signal settings, H.M.S.O., London.
Winter, S. (2002). "Modeling Costs of Turns in Route Planning." GeoInformatica,
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Zhen Ding, F. Z., Yongqiang Wu. (2009). "An Artificial Neural Network Delay Model
for Traffic Assignment Incorporating Intersection Delay Costs."
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Zhu, J., LAM, W. H. K., Chen, A., and Lo, H. K. (2009). "Modeling the Impacts of
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A Traffic Efficiency based Optimization Model for Land Use around High
Speed Railway Station

Jie ZHANG 1, Huapu LU 1, Yue LI 1

1
Institute of Transportation Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua
University, Beijing，China, 100084; PH (010) 62772615; FAX (010) 62795339;
email: zhangji03@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
From the new perspective of urban traffic efficiency and low carbon
transportation systems, this paper discusses and summarizes the interactive
relationship between urban land use patterns and transportation system. A
comprehensive model is designed based on minimum travel time concerning both the
optimization of land use around high speed railway station and the optimization of
population under restriction of a certain land use and population condition. A case
study from the city of Yixing, which is located on the railway line between Nanjing
and Hangzhouwill research the high speed railway’s effects on the land use around
the railway station. Results from the study show that the application of this model is
simpler, more practical, and highly operational, when compared with the traditional
planning methods. Finally, this paper will develop land use strategy, which provides
theoretical foundation and methodology for the planning and construction of
sustainable cities with high speed railway stations.

1 INTRODUCTION
Despite the rapid growth of high speed railway network in China, and the
integration of large capacity public transit, the massive people convergence in the
railway station could be centralized and disseminated quickly. The problem of
miscellaneous and crowd atmosphere could be improved. A new trend of
development appears around the location of railway station. The construction of high
speed railway will bring a new growth drive around the high speed railway station.
As a result such area is always with diverse urban functions, frequent economic
activities, highest population density and highest utilization of land consolidation.
High speed railway station is considered as transportation hub center of the city with
the front streets as a new business or a new development axis of business. Area with
life and consumer activities are more frequent than vehicle trips showed safe
environment conditionTherefore, it would probably become the most remarkable
place for urban consolidation development. Due to the substantial attraction to other
areas in the city, high speed railway station becomes important area for city
exploration and economic development. Also, this will restrain the city for
out-of-order periphery extension, protect loads of farmland, save the entire urban
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land resources, and eventually affect the city to transfer to a denser modal of city
development.
After the opening of high speed railway, the reconciliation between the land
use forms around the rail station and the urban transportation system, will directly
affect the land use forms and shape the city development, which would be reflected
through the efficiency of the urban transportation. Therefore, it is necessary for us to
study the land use forms of the surrounding areas aiming at improving urban
transportation efficiency. Then, use the academic results for guiding the
reconciliation development between the land use and the transportation system.
The development of social economy could determine a corresponding certain
kind of land use form and layout, which could simultaneously produce the special
transportation structure. One could regard the land use form as the traffic demand
generation for its determination of the total traffic trips and time-space distribution
and regard the transportation structure as traffic supply aspect for the determination
of the certain amount of the affordable traffic volume. Therefore, land use form
reconciled with the transportation structurewill affect the balance of supply and
demand in urban transportation system directly, and will affect the transportation
efficiency in different levels. The relationship is shown as Figure 1 on the next page.

Figure 1. Relationship among urban land use form, transportation structure

and the transportation efficiency.
Figure 1 shows that the impacts of urban transportation efficiency are portrayed
in two levels: the first level is to affect the traffic generation, attraction intensity and
distribution characteristics; the second level is to affect the urban transportation
structure. Consequently, once the interactive relationship between lands in different
functions is determined, the total amount of traffic trips and the space distribution
characteristics based on it are determined. Improvement of the transportation system
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efficiency with an unreasonable land use form, will apparently lead to large
unnecessary amount of traffic demand and increase travel distances.
This paper will introduce a land use optimization model on the surrounding
areas of high speed railway station under the concern of transportation efficiency. ;
Also, the research will be applied to plan Yixing east railway station to provide some
experience on the land use planning for high speed rail in China.
2 LAND USE OPTIMIZATION MODELFOR THE SURROUNDING AREAS
OF HIGH SPEED RAILWAY STATION
2.1 Measurement of transportation efficiency under land use forms
2.1.1 Selection of criteria
It is challenging to select the exact and reasonable criterion from the
complicated aspects that affect the urban transportation efficiency. The most basic
requirement for a high efficiency transportation system is, to reach the most ideal
(the farthest) destination in the shortest time and with an optimal speed (including
safety, comfort). In order to unify the quantitative calculation of transportation
efficiency with other economic system benefit criteria, “total travel time” was
selected as the criteria for transportation efficiency. Also, “minimum total travel
time” was selected as the criteria forthe best land use form. Furthermore, total travel
time is divided into three parts: intra travel, internal travel and external travel.
2.1.2 Assumptions and simplification
1. Urban space model
The paper introduces the following urban space form as the model for our
research object as shown in Figure 2below. The space form could change to different
urban land use forms such as single-center concentric ring, sector, or network
structure through adjusting the scales of each central group, the distances among
them, and the transportation modes (Wang, 2003).
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Figure 2. Space structure of the research object.

2. Transportation connection between intra travel, internal travel and external
travel among the groups
The external group connection with other cities mainly depends on high speed
rail. Transportation efficiency could be improved through high speed railway so as to
reach the same city effect. Internal group connection could be simplified into two
levels: the first level is the transportation connection between the first group and the
second group; the second level is the transportation connection among the second
groups. We consider the first transportation level to mainly includ the three
transportation modes (i.e. subway, transit and privateauto). There is relatively an
independent urban transportation subsystem in each group, which mainly use public
transportation, and the rest uses walking, cycling and autos.
2.1.3 The expression function of the measurable criterion
Suppose there are n groups in our urban space form, including one first group
and n-1 second group. Each group is numbered in order. The first group is given
number 1, which is the location of high speed railway station. There are m
transportation modes in each subsystem, and l types of land use functions.
According to the above consideration, the total travel time is given by:
T = T1 + T2 + T3 (1)

Where: T1 is the total travel time intra each group, T2 is the total travel

time inter groups, T3 is the total travel time between external groups.

1. Traffic volume between intra, internal and external groups

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1) Traffic volume QTi of the ith group

Traffic volume of the ith group is determined by the land use scale, city
functions, the economic development level and the population scale. Based on the
traffic demand forecastingmodel total number of trips is derived using unit
population, unit land use, and unit GDP methods. In this case the methods of unit
population and unit land use are selected (Wang, 2003), and the result as follows:
QTi = Pia i (2-1)

QTi = å S il × q il
l (2-2)
Where:
Pi ——the population of the ith group;

a i ——the average trips per capita of the ith group;

S il ——the land area used for the lth function of the ith group;

qil ——the trip generation intensity of the lth function of the ith group.

2) Amount of trips Qij between the ith group and the jth group
Because of the relationship with economic geography and population scales,
gravity model is used to estimate Qij :
a b
K ij QTi × QTj
Qij =
， i¹ j
f (d ij )
(3)
Where:
K ij ——the associate parameter between the ith group and the jth group;

d ij ——the distance between the ith group and the jth group.

3) Amount of intra trips QWi for the ith group

If i = j in formula (3), then Qii is equal to QWi . Considering the inaccuracy

for the gravity model without accurate cost information, then QWi is defined as the
follows:
QWi = QTi - å Qij
j ¹i
， (4)
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4）Amount of external trips QAi in the ith group

This is the number of trips between the group that include high speed rail and
other cities, i.e. the attracted number of trips to the railway station.
QAi = h Pi + x Pj
，i ¹ j (5)

h 、 x ——the attractiveness factor of high speed railway station in ith , jth

group.
2. Total travel time intra groups

T1 = åå t ik ´ QWi ´ rik
i k (6)
Where:
t ik ——is the average travel time by the kth mode in the ith group;
rik ——the split proportion of the kth mode intra the ith group;
3. Total travel time inter groups
d ij
T2 = ååå Q
i ¹ j j ¹i k
ij ´ q ijk ´
vijk
(7)
Where:
vijk
——is the average speed of the kth mode between the ith group and the jth
group;
q ijk
——is the split proportion of the kth mode between the ith group and the jth
group;
4.Total travel time external groups
T3 = åå QAi ´tip
i p
(8)
th
tip ——is the average travel time by high speed rail between the i group and
th
the p city.
2.2 An integrated optimization model based on land use and population size
This research mainly focuses on the land use scale, population and the
relationship between spaces in the urban space groups. Applying unit land use and
unit population methods to determine the both the number of intra and external trips
respectively the following integrated model is derived:
é Kij ´ Pia i ´ Pja j ù
MinT = å ê å tik × rik × (å Sil ×qil - å )ú +
i ê
ë k l j ¹ i f ( d ij ) úû
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K ij ´ Pia i ´ Pja j dij

ååå i ¹ j j ¹i k f (d ij )
´ qijk ´
vijk
+ ååå (h Pi + x Pj ) ´tip
i ¹ j j ¹i p
(9)
s.t.
n

åS
i =1
il = Sl (9-1)
n

åP = P
i =1
i (9-2)

Pi
£ PM (9-3)
åS
l
il

Pi
³ P0 (9-4)
åS
l
il

Pi ³ 0 (9-5)
S ik ³ 0 (9-6)
In the objective function of Eq. (9), the independent variables are the areas Sil
of different land and the population scale Pi in each group. Other variables are
calibrated in advance or set by the status of the urban transportation system. The
developed model aims at explaning for area with high speed railway station the
adjustment of land use functions, areas and population scales in order to minimize
the total travel time in the corresponding urban transportation system under the
restrictions of land resources, total population and its density.
2.3 The solution for the model
åS il = Si
Suppose adding a restriction l , the restriction of population density
becomes linear. Then, the first and the second terms are actually independent. The
third term, which is the attraction traffic by high speed rail could be estimated by
applying various methods such as survey of urban residents travel structure, linear
regression and traffic volume forecasting. Therefore, the original problem could be
divided into two optimization subproblems:
Land use optimization:

MinT = åå (t ik × rik × å S il ×qil ) (10)

i k l

s.t.
n

åS
i =1
il = Sl (10-1)

åSl
il = Si (10-2)
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Sil ³ 0 (10-3)
Population scale optimization:
K ij ´ Pia i ´ Pja j dij Kij ´ Piai ´ Pja j
MinT = ååå ´ q ijk ´ - åå tik × rik ×å
i ¹ j j ¹i k f (dij ) vijk i k j ¹i f (dij )

+ ååå (h Pi + x Pj ) ´tip (11)

i ¹ j j ¹i p

s.t.
n

åP = P
i =1
i (11-1)

Pi
£ PM (11-2)
Si
Pi
³ P0 (11-3)
Si
Pi ³ 0 (11-4)
Here the first model is a normal linear programming problem, and the second
one is a typical quadratic programming problem. The complexity and difficulty of
the original problem has been greatly reduced. However, we should emphasize that
for each subproblem, whether optimal solutions exist depends on the concrete
research objects. A further judgment is needed after parameters are set.
3 APPLICATION OF THE LAND USE OPTIMIZATION MODEL
3.1 General thinking
The city of Yixing prepared its urban master planning in 2008, which has
conducted a detailed research on the urban population scale development The
planning population of the two groups are applied to the integrated model, in order to
transform it to a linear programming problem. The optimal decision variables are
only to choose residential land, business and industrial land, so the total number of
trips in groups is not dependent on the land use unit method, but on the function land
use method. Eq. (9-1) becomes the restriction for the total planning land in 202
3.2 Outcome analysis
The status quo and future planning data for the city of Yixing (Master plan
in Yixing City, 2008 and Spatial developments, 2009) used to solve the problem by
applying the linear programming software Lingo shown as Figure 3 below.
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Figure 3. Optimization model for solving land-use based on lingo software.

Table 1 on the next page shows a comparison between the planning residential,
business, industrial land area and the corresponding area derived by our optimization
model.

Table 1. Comparison between the planning and the optimal solutions.

Urban master planning (km2) Optimal solutions of the model (km2)
Residential Business Industrial Residential Business Industrial
Group name
area area area area area area
Yicheng 16.17 7.105 16.73 18.0 7.675 14.33
Dingshu 6.174 2.5 2.828 4.344 1.93 5.228
Results form Table 1 show that the residential and commercial land areas of
Yicheng in the optimal result of the model are larger than those of the master plan,
and industrial land areas in Dingshu in the optimal result are larger than those of the
master plan. In the perspective of improving the transportation efficiency, it is better
to construct residential and commercial land in Yicheng, and industrial land in
Dingshu.
Because the high speed railway station will be located in the group of Yicheng,
it would become a tour and business area in the surrounding area connected with
walking. This will lead part of the tour and business visitors to moving near the
station, which indicates a new entertainment and business center. Meanwhile, the
high speed railway station acts as a large integrated transportation hub with long
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distance bus station and urban transit station around, so that “zero-transfer” within
the station will be realized for passengers, and the land use efficiency will also be
improved for the surrounding area.
4 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES OF LAND USE SURROUNDING YIXING
HIGH-SPEED RAILWAY STATION
Yixing high speed railway station is not only a railway hub, but also has
significance for the future development of Yixing City. The development of land use
in Yixing high speed railway station area must be multi-dimensional under many
restrictions. The so-called "restrictions" does not refer to destroying the surrounding
landscape. As Yixing high speed railway station area is located between Yixing
National Forest Park and Longbei Mountain Forest Park, the surrounding natural
environment should not be damaged because of the development of high speed
railway station area. The so-called "multi-dimensional development" refers to
showing the multiple functions for a limited area through three-dimensional
developing ideas, not only to enhance the value of land use, but also to provide an
opportunity for the reconstruction of the Yixing transport network (Spatial
developments, 2009).
4.1 Integrated transportation hub
The Ning-Hang high speed railway crossing Yixing, and the construction of
rail station in Yixing will result in the opening of its long-distance passenger route.
Once incorporated into the country's railway network, the opportunity will move
passenger flow to Yixingwill support Yixing's economic development. Therefore,
high speed railway station is a best choice of an integrated transportation hub in
Yixing. Other modes of transportation such as rail system, road system, and public
transportation system should be accessible along with high speed rail development.
4.2 Tourist Distribution Center
The construction of Yixing high speed railway station provides an
opportunity for establishing tourist distribution center. First of all, it provides the
convenience of transportation as an integrated transportation hub, connecting with
five radiating Yixing highways, offering more choices for visitors with a rapid bus
system. Secondly, in the long-term perspective, the opening of Ning-Hang high
speed rail, the construction of Xi-Yi interurban lines and the maturity of the road
system will provide the center with adequate passenger flow resources. Finally, the
high speed railway station itself is located between the National Forest Park and
Longbei Mountain Forest Park with a beautiful view and wide vision, which also is
fitting the function of tourist distribution center.
4.3 Multi-functional open space of city
In the increasingly crowded urban space, it retains an open space of
information exchanging and entertainment for Yixing people and visitors. As the
station is located between two mountains with good landscape, it is a good idea to
build a large urban forest park or theme park. This pattern of development will
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improve the added value of the station's land, and become an engine of raising
vitality and promoting economic development.
5 CONCLUSIONS
In the era of high speed rail, we need to establish a rational urban land use
pattern, generally complying with the following principles: first,the spatial
distribution of land should include a moderate concentration with some
dispersionand consider the internal balance of living and employment for each
group; second, realizing the characteristics and integration of groups; third,
establishing a rational hierarchical structure and scale of urban space for groups;
finally, establishing appropriate transportation connection between groups. High
speed rail should be taken as an opportunity to promote green modes of
transportation such as intercity rail, rail transit and bus systems. Also, high speed rail
is an opportunity to promote the formation of spatial structure of urban and rural
areas. One should promote low-carbon transportation system under the guide of land
use patterns, transportation structure and travel choice of transportation.
6 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This study is supported by the National High-Tech Research and
Development Program of China (863Program) (Grant No.2007AA11Z202).
REFERENCES
Jianwei Wang. (2003). “Theory of Urban Transportation Planning Based on
Transport Efficiency” [D]. the degree of Doctor’s dissertation, Tsinghua
University, Beijing.
Master plan in Yixing City [R]. (2008). Technical Report, Yixing City People's
Government, Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Jiangsu Province,
China
Spatial development strategic planning according to the characteristics of Yixing in
the high speed railway era [R]. (2009). Technical Report, Institute of
Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing.
Yixing Statistical Yearbook 2009 [M]. (2009). Statistical bureau of Yixing City.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 117
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A Bi-level Programming Model for Origin–Destination Estimation

Based on FCD

Yanni YANG1, Hua-pu LU and Qizhou HU3

1
Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China,
100084; PH: 13426460254, (010) 62772615; email: yangyanni0917@126.com
2
Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China,
100084; PH (010) 62795339; email: luhp@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
3
Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China,
100084; PH (010) 62772615 email:qizhouhu@126.com

Abstract: The aim of this paper was to study the floating car data (FCD) application
from origin to destination (OD) estimation issues. Thus the study put forward a
method to estimate the OD matrix based on FCD. In this study, we first propose a
model for obtaining prior OD matrix from FCD. Then a bi-level programming model
was designed for OD flow estimation. As mentioned above the bi- level
programming model is multi-objective optimization model, and the second model
is for obtaining prior OD matrix which was integrated into bi-level model. The first
model is a time-dependent OD traffic assignment model. Two-stages of genetic
algorithm were used for solving the bi-level programming model. At last, we apply
this model to a test network and examine its estimation performance. Compared with
the traditional estimation method without FCD information, the OD estimation result
was found to be more accurate and efficient.

1. INTRODUCTION
Origin–destination (OD) demand data were collected by large-scale resident
trip survey using the traditional four-step method. Otherwise, OD flow can be
inferred by link traffic counts, making the calculated traffic equal to the
observational traffic (Lu, 1998). In contrast, the OD method can save more time and
money i.e. more economical compared to others.
According to literature OD flow estimation can be classified into static and
dynamic demand (Hu and Wang, 2008). The static OD demand can not reflect
temporal variations of traffic flows, and is usually applied to traffic planning (Shao,
2003). Many foreign researchers have focused on the dynamic OD estimation theory
for several decades. In the existing research results/findings, representative models
and algorithms include parameter optimization (PO), maximum likelihood (ML),
entropy maximization (EM) and Kalman filtering (KF) (Wu, 1997; Jiao, 2005).
Furthmore, Lu and Jiao (2005) put forward integrated and simplified calculation
methods of dynamic route travel time, set up a model of dynamic OD flow
estimation for expressway section and designed a genetic algorithm to solve the
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problem. Wang Ke et al. (2007) presented a new expressway ramp OD matrix

estimation model which based on the modified BP neural network.
However, most of the dynamic OD estimation methods can not be applied in
practice or satisfy the accuracy requirement due to too many idealized hypothesis
involved. These methods tend to lay emphasis on models or algorithms study and
ignore to make use of detected traffic information like float car data (FCD).
Therefore, this paper constructs mathematical programming models based on FCD
and provides the solution algorithm accordingly. The purpose was to satisfy the need
of urban traffic management, compensating for the shortcomings of existing static
and dynamic OD estimation models.
2. PROBLEM FORMULATION
2.1. The prime notations
The following notation is used for formulation:
a link index a ∈ A
τ time interval
r, s origin and destination index r ∈ R, s ∈ S
X a ,τ the floating car flow on link a at the time interval τ
Qτrs the floating car OD pair ( r , s ) at the time interval τ
qτ rs
the estimated road network OD pair ( r , s ) at the time interval τ
v a ,τ the calculated link flow at the time interval τ
v ∗a ,τ the observed link counts on link a at the time interval τ
Cτrs the coefficient of OD pair ( r , s ) at the time interval τ
rs
f k ,τ the traffic flow of path k in OD pair ( r , s ) at the time interval τ
pars,τ the proportion of the floating car OD pair ( r , s ) passing link a at the time
interval τ
δ = 1 , if link a is on the path k in OD pair ( r , s ) at the time interval τ and 0
rs
a , k ,τ

otherwise
2.2. The model for obtaining prior OD matrix based on FCD
The literature cited in this paper show that the prior OD information will
influence the accuracy of OD estimation, but it’is difficult to obtain the prior OD.
A time series of float car OD flow can be obtained from FCD. Floating car
OD flow is a special component of the road network OD flow, which can be
estimated through multiplying a magnification factor with float car OD data. The
obtained OD flow can be applied into OD flow inference as prior OD information.
Making the hypothesis that Qτrs and qτrs have a constant coefficient Cτ at the
same time interval τ , the optimization function was formulated as follows,
min Z = ∑ ( X a ,τ Cτ − va∗,τ )
2
∀a ∈ A (1)
a

The optimum Cτ∗ can be obtained by the following equation:

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∑v τ ∗
a,
Cτ∗ = a
(2)
∑X τ a
a,

Then the prior OD information can be calculated by the equation 3 (Dong, 2005) as
follow:
qτrs = Qτrs Cτ∗ (3)
However, the coefficient Cτ can be different due to different OD pairs. Based
on this, an improved mathematical model (Dong, 2005) is presented as:

minZ= ∑ (∑∑ qτrs pars,τ − va∗,τ )

2
(4)
a r s

s.t. qτrs = Qτrs Cτrs ∀r , ∀s (5)

C min ≤ Cτrs ≤ C max (6)
Where C min and Cmax can be obtained from FCD. The model above is
integrated into the bi-level OD estimation model.
2.3. The bi-level OD estimation model
The upper level of OD estimation model can be described as follows:
min ∑ (∑∑ qτrs pars,τ − va∗,τ )
2

a r s

min ∑ ( v a ,τ − v*a ,τ )
2

s.t. qτrs = Qτrs Cτrs ∀r , ∀s (7)

Cmin ≤ Cτ rs
≤ C max
v a ,τ ≥ 0 ∀a
Where all v a ,τ and qτrs should satisfy the lower level programming model (Zhou,
2003), which is extended from user equilibrium model.
min ∑ ∫
v a ,τ
0
t a ,τ (ω )d ω
a

s.t. ∑
ψ
k∈
f
rs
k ,τ = qτ
rs
∀r , ∀s
r ,s

f
rs
≥0 ∀r , ∀s (8)
k ,τ

v a ,τ = ∑∑∑ f δ ∀a
rs rs
k ,τ a , k ,τ
r s k
rs
q min ≤ q τ ≤ q max
rs rs

The travel time fuction is expressed as

ta (va ) = ta ,0 (va )(1 + α (va / Ca ) β ) (9)
Where t a ,0 is the free flow time of link a , α and β are the parameters, and
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usually, α =0.15, β =4, C a is the capacity of link a .

This model is designed for a medium-scale network. Estimating OD matrix in
each hour is more meaningful for traffic management. Therefore, the time
interval τ =1hour in the model. Furthermore, the model can be regarded as a static
bi-level OD estimation one in an hour.
3. SOLUTION ALGORITHMS
In view of the complexity of bi-level programming, the genetic algorithm was
designed for this model accordingly.
The double object functions in the upper level programming are transformed
into a single object function by making use of the equivalent factor ε (Shi, 2009),
that is
min Z = ε ∑ ( v a ,τ − v *a ,τ ) +(1-ε ) ∑ (∑∑ qτrs pars,τ − va∗,τ )
2 2
(10)
a a r s
In order to simplify the computation, the analysis process is divided into
two stages based on fuzzy language.
3.1. Stage 1: Calculating the prior OD demand qτrs (0)
Step0: ε =0, the object function was denoted as min Z = ∑(∑∑qτrs prsa,τ − v∗a,τ ) .
2

a r s

The fitness function is constructed as F (i ) = 1 / Z (i ) i = 1, 2, … M

Step1: set the population size M and the iteration number N .The initial
population was produced at random in the constraint condition (6).
Step2: generation =0, calculate the objective value and fitness for each
individual
Step3: update the population by selection, crossover, mutation and
reproduction. Generation = generation+1, calculate the objective value and fitness for
each individual one more time.
Step4: stopping rule: If generation = N , then stop. Otherwise, repeat to step3.
Finally, the best ( Cτrs ) is obtained by the steps mentioned above,
∗

calculating qtrs (0) by equation (5).

3.2. Stage 2: Computing the best ( qτrs )∗
Step0: ε =1 ， the object function was denoted as
min Z = ∑ ( v a ,τ − v )
* 2
a ,τ .The fitness function was constructed as
a
F (i ) = 1 / Z (i ) i = 1, 2, … M
Step1: set the population size M and iteration number N . The initial
rs
population is produced at random on the condition of q rsmin ≤ q τ ≤ q rsmax .Insert
qτrs (0) into the initial population.
Step2: generation=0, carry out the lower level programming ,that is, the user
equilibrium assignment with the Frank-Wolf algorithm ,then calculate the individual
objective value and fitness.
Step3: update the population by selection, crossover and mutation operators,
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generation =g eneration+1, carryout the user equilibrium assignment and calculate

the individual objective value and fitness once again.
Step4: stopping rule. If generation = N , then stop. Otherwise, repeat to step3.
The best ( qτrs )∗ is the individual having the highest fitness in the population.
The best individual preservation strategy is used in this computational process.
The individuals having the highest fitness do not participate in crossover and
mutation operations. They replace the lowest fitness Individuals in the same
generation.
4. NUMERICAL EXAMPLES
The test network is shown in Fig.1 (Zhou, 2003).Numerals denotes nodes,
and nodes 1,3,7,9 are the origins and destinations. Each link is two-way in Fig.1. In
order to design the program concisely, the links are numbered by different origin and
destination respectively.

Figure 1. The test network structure.

Table1 below lists link information partially, including capacity, free travel
time, link counts etc.. The floating car OD flow and the interval of qτrs are presented
in table 2. This numerical experiment was carried out as the experimental program
and is presented in table 3.The computational and compared results are shown in Fig
2, Fig 3and Table4.

Table 1. Link information.

Link Origin Destination Capacity Free travel Link
No. No. No. /(veh·h−1) time /min counts/(veh·h−1)
1 1 2 1000 4 736
2 1 4 1000 4 914
3 2 1 1000 4 736
4 2 3 1000 4 755
5 2 5 1100 3.5 690
… … … … … …
24 9 8 800 4 786
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Table 2. The known OD information ((veh·h−1)).

Maximum Minimum Floating Maximum Minimum Floating
OD pair OD pair
OD value OD value car OD OD value OD value car OD
(1,3) 450 350 20 (7,1) 500 400 25
(1,7) 500 400 25 (7,3) 750 650 28
(1,9) 850 750 32 (7,9) 450 350 21
(3,1) 450 350 20 (9,1) 850 750 32
(3,7) 750 650 28 (9,3) 450 350 18
(3,9) 450 350 18 (9,7) 450 350 21

Table 3. OD estimation experimental program.

Case 1 Case2
Non floating car OD information Having floating car OD information

Figure 2. Case 1 computational result.

Figure 3. Case 2 computational result.

It was found out that making use of FCD information has an obvious
influence on the initial value of the objective function. We can see that the initial
value of the objective function in Case2 is much lower than that of Case1. That is to
say, obtaining prior OD matrix from FCD information can improve the accuracy of
OD estimation result.
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Table 4. The result of comparing Case1with Case2.

OD Relative error Relative error
Real OD value Case 1 Case 2
Pair /% /%
(1,3) 400 400 0 400 0
(1,7) 451 464 2.88 451 0
(1,9) 798 786 1.5 798 0
(3,1) 400 399 0.25 400 0
(3,7) 700 687 1.86 699 0.14
(3,9) 421 435 3.32 421 0
(7,1) 450 440 2.22 449 0.22
(7,3) 701 712 1.57 701 0
(7,9) 400 402 0.5 400 0
(9,1) 800 810 1.25 801 0.13
(9,3) 418 409 2.15 418 0
(9,7) 400 400 0 400 0
In case 1, the maximum OD estimated error is 3.32%, the average error of all
the OD pairs is 1.56%. However, the maximum OD estimated error is 0.22% and the
average error of all the OD pairs is 0.04%.in case2. By contrast, we can conclude that
making use of the floating car OD will greatly improve the accuracy of OD
estimation. This example also illustrates the model and the genetic algorithm is
effective.
5. CONCLUSION
For the shortcomings of the static and dynamic OD estimation, this paper
proposes the bi-level programming OD estimation model based on FCD. Then a
two-stage random genetic algorithm is designed to slove the model correspondingly.
Finally, the numerical test results show that the model and the algorithm are
desirable.
Based on the results of the study, we conclude that this model not only takes full
advantage of the FCD information, but also improve the accuracy of OD estimation.
It can satisfy the traffic management demands and help the traffic management
departments/organizations make desirable traffic control and management strategies.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The author is very grateful to the anonymous referees for their insightful and
constructive comments and suggestions that have led to an improved version of this
paper. The work was supported by National High-Tech Research and Development
Program (‘863’Program) of China (Project No.2007AA11Z202), National High-Tech
Research and Development Program (‘863’Program) of China (Project
No.2007AA11Z233), and National Key Technology R&D Program (Project No.
2006BAG01A01), and P.H.D Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of
China (Project No. 20070003065).
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REFERENCES
Shi F et al. (2009). “Bi-level programming model for reconstruction of urban branch
road network”, J. Cent. South Univ. Technol, (16): 0172−0176
Suh-Wen Chiou. (2005). “Bi-level programming for the continuous transport
network design problem”, Transportation Research Part B, (39):361–383
Hu S R, Wang C M. (2008).”Vehicle Detector Deployment Strategies for the
Estimation
of Network Origin–DestinationDemands Using Partial Link Traffic Counts”, IEEE
Transportations on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 9(2):288-300
Lu H P. (1998).Theory and Method in Transportation Planning [M].Tsinghua
University Press, Beijing
Jiao P P. (2005).Theory of On-Line Dynamic Origin-Destination Flows Estimation
Using Time-Series of Link Counts [D]. PhD thesis,Tsinghua University
Wang K et al. (2007). “Method of Expressway Ramp OD Matrix Estimation Based
in Neural Network”, Traffic and Computer. 25(4):35~37
Dong J X, Wu J P. (2005). ”An Algorithm to Estimate OD Matrix with Probe
Vehicle and Its Reliability Analysis”. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University,
29(3):73~76
Zhou H P. (2003). “Application of a Genetic Algorithm Based on Stochastic
Simulation for Estimating Origin-Destination Matrices”. Systems
Engineering, 21(4):114~119
Shao C F. (2003) .Traffic Planning [M]. China Railway Press.Beijing
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A Multiple Attributive Decision Making Method for the Number of Lane Based
on Delay Cost

Hua BAI1, Jun CHEN2 and Zhiquan XIE3

1
Hua BAI, School of Transportation, Southeast University Nanjing, 210096, China;
Department of Civil, Environmental, and Sustainable Engineering, Arizona State
University Tempe, 85287, USA; E-mail: huabaiseu@gmail.com
2
Jun CHEN, School of Transportation, Southeast University Nanjing, 210096, China;
E-mail: chenjun@seu.edu.cn
3
Zhiquan XIE, Shanghai Ji'an Transportation Consulting CO., Ltd, 200092, China;
E-mail: xdy1030@163.com

ABSTRACT:
This paper focuses on traffic delay due to the number of lanes associated with
building cost and appended cost. An objective of comprehensive cost is established
by quantitatively calculating construction cost and delay cost which depend on the
number of lane. Typical road design and traffic control plans for urban roads have
been utilized to develop equations for calculating traffic delay. A method is presented
to quantize traffic delay cost. Finally, a comparative analysis is conducted taking a
typical urban lane upgrading in Huaibei City as an example. It is suggested that the
methodology presented enables the decision maker to consider total costs, including
user traffic delay costs relative to the number of lane, building cost and appended
cost.

1 INTRODUCTION
The development of construction has surged rapidly due to increasing amount
of traffic demand that is failing or is under capacity for today’s society. There is a
need to address these problems economically and effectively. Although some of the
key incentives have been identified for freeways, very little has been done to actually
quantify particular urban road cost savings associated with number of lane.
A Microsoft Excel-based model has been developed for predicting the work
zone delay, the QuickZone delay estimation program (Mitretek 2000) (Detail
reference in Reference section is missing), based on the deterministic queuing model
for each network link in the work zone. Chien and Schonfeld (2001) (Detail
reference in Reference section is missing) presented a simplified and useful model
for estimating the delay cost using the ADT and finding the optimum work zone
segment length in a four-lane freeway with one lane closure. Chien and Schonfeld
(2001) (Detail reference in Reference section is missing) have tackled a problem of
great practical significance in managing freeway work zones, which is to find the
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optimum work zone segment length. A new freeway work zone traffic delay and cost
optimization model is presented in terms of two variables: the length of the work
zone segment, and the starting time of the work zone using average hourly traffic
data (Xiaomo Jiang and Hojjat Adeli, 2003).
This paper describes a methodology of optimizing the number of lane on
urban road by minimizing typical traffic delays cost related to construction cost. An
objective of comprehensive cost is established by quantitatively calculating
construction cost and delay cost which depend on the number of lane. The optimal
number of lane is decided by minimizing the comprehensive cost. It is suggested that
the decision maker consider these costs combined with direct capital costs so that the
best alternative is selected.

2 MODELS AND METHOD

2.1 Model formulation
In a two-dimensional space j Í Â 2 , the section of road can be built at fixed
line x Î j with a control delay d ( x ) . The building cost is denoted by f ( x ) which
depends on the number of line. The decision variables are the number of sections, N,
and their location C := {x1 , x2 ,K, xN } Í j . Suppose that the delay cost at section j
is d (x j )w(x j ) , where w( x ) is hourly wage rate. We further assume that the appended
cost at x can be defined as g (x ) . The appended cost refers to all other costs that are
not relative to the number of lanes.
The objective is to minimize the expected overall cost with respect to x, as
follow:

min å f (x j ) + å d (x j )w(x j ) + ò
N N
g (x )dx (1)
x xÎj
j =1 j =1

The three terms in (1) respectively represent the road building cost Cb , the
delay cost Cd and the appended cost Ca . The appended cost, which is separated
from other two costs, is usually a fixed value. So the total cost C can also be
represented as follow:
C = Cb + Cd + Ca (2)
Building cost Cb comprises of fee of widening, fee of urban roads
upgrading, etc, which are proportional to the number of road. Appended cost is
facility cost including fee of traffic light, traffic sign, greening, etc. Building cost and
appended cost are also relative to the grade of urban road, and can be got from the
engineering project. Delay cost is determined by traffic demand, traffic signal and
urban road capacity. We focus on the effects on the capacity due to the number of
lane.

2.2 Method for determining delay cost

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The function of urban road is mainly to serve a through traffic, so a lane

group is used to characterize an urban street. Control delay for a through movement
is often treated as an appropriate delay in an urban street evaluation. In general, the
analyst should have this information because the intersections have to be evaluated
individually as part of the overall analysis. Control delay involves movements at
slower speeds and stops on intersection approaches, as vehicles move up in the queue
or slow down upstream of an intersection. Drivers frequently reduce speed when a
downstream signal is red or there is a queue at the downstream intersection approach.
Control delay requires determination of a realistic average speed for each roadway
segment. Any estimate of the average travel speed on urban streets implies effects of
the control delay. Equation (3) can be used to compute control delay of each vehicle
using the road.
d = d u ( PF ) + d i + d q (3)

Where, d = control delay for each vehicle (s/veh); du = uniform delay for each
vehicle (s/veh); di = incremental delay for each vehicle (s/veh); d q = initial queue
delay for each vehicle (s/veh); PF = progression adjustment factor.
Equation (4) can be used to estimate the delay for each vehicle assuming
uniform arrivals, stable flow, and no initial queue. It is based on the first term of
Webster’s delay formulation (reference = ??) and is widely accepted as an accurate
depiction of delay for an idealized case of uniform arrivals. Note that values of X
beyond 1.0 are not used in the computation of du .
2
æ gö
0.5C ç1 - ÷
du = è Cø
é gù
1 - êmin (1, X ) ú
ë Cû
(4)
Where, X = volume to capacity (v/c) ratio for lane group (also termed degree of
saturation); C = cycle length (s); g = effective green tie for lane group (s).
Equation (5) gives an estimate of the incremental delay for each vehicle on
the road due to non-uniform arrivals and temporary cycle failures (random delay) as
well as delay caused by sustained periods of oversaturation (oversaturation delay). It
is sensitive to the degree of saturation of the lane group X , the duration of the
analysis period T , the capacity of the lane group c , and the type of signal control,
as reflected by the control parameter k . The equation assumes that there is no unmet
demand that causes initial queues at the start of the analysis period T . Finally, the
incremental delay term is valid for all values of X , including highly oversaturated
lane groups.
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é ù
di = 900T ê( X - 1) + ( X - 1)2 + 8klX ú (5)
ë cT û

Where, c = capacity of lane group (veh/h); T = duration of analysis period (h), its
default value is 0.25; k = incremental delay adjustment for the actuated control, a
value of 0.5 is used for pre-timed signals; l = incremental delay adjustment for the
filtering or metering by upstream signals, a value of 1.0 is used for isolated
intersections.
Initial queue delay refers to the delay due to a residual queue identified in a
previous analysis period and persisting at the start of the current analysis period. This
delay results from the additional time required to clear the initial queue. Its
magnitude depends on the size of the initial queue, the length of the analysis period,
and the v/c ratio for that period. Equation (6) is used to estimate the initial queue
delay for each vehicle.
1800Qb (1 + u )t
dq = (6)
cT
Where, Qb = initial queue at the start of period T (veh); c = adjusted capacity of lane
group (veh/h); T = duration of analysis period (h); t = duration of unmet demand in
T (h); u = delay parameter.
Once the time delays have been calculated (7), the cost can be evaluated.
Kazakov et al. (year and reference detail missing) reviewed travel time costs by
examining the biweekly income levels that typically fall in the range of
$1,750–$2,500. The delay cost for each vehicle can then be calculated using the
following:
Cd = d · w = (d u + d i + d q )w
(7)
Where, w = hourly wage rate (dollars/h).
From (2), (3), (4), (5), (6) and (7), the total cost for one section is
C = Cb + Cd + Ca

ì æ gö
2
ü
ï 0.5C ç1 - ÷ ï
ï è C ø + 900T é( X - 1) + 8klX ù 1800Qb (1 + u )t ï
= Cb + í ê ( X - 1) +
2
ú+ ý wnV + Ca
ï1 - émin (1, X ) g ù ë cT û cT ï
ïî êë C úû ïþ

Where, n = the average passenger volume per vehicle, V = Annual average daily
traffic volume.

3 CASE STUDY AND RESULTS

A typical arterial urban road located in Huaibei city in China was selected for
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case study. Two plans about the number of lanes are under discussion. Plan 1 argues
for bi directional and four-lane urban road for cutting the building fee. Six-lane road
is recommended by plan 2 for saving the delay cost. An objective of minimum total
cost is addressed, and road group capacity is treated as a key parameter on the
arterial road.
The road consists of three main intersections and four sections. Coordinated
traffic signal system is applied on this road. The cycle length C =110s, effective
green tie for lane group g =48s. Liu et al (2006) (detail in Reference section missing)
gave the saturation flow and reduction factor for two-lane road in one direction and
three-lane road in one direction according to the actual city conditions in china. If the
saturation flow of two-lane road in one direction is s1 = 2650.50 and the saturation
flow of three-lane road in one direction is s2 = 3472.00 , then the lane group
capacity of two-lane road in one direction and that of three-lane road in one direction
can be calculated as below:
g g
c1 = s1 = 1156.58 c2 = s2 = 1515.05
c c
The Annual average daily traffic volume based on traffic survey, volume to
capacity ratio for two-lane road in one direction X1 and volume to capacity ratio for
three-lane road in one direction X2 are illustrated in Table 1.

Table 1. The Traffic Volumes and Volume to Capacity Ratio of Each Section.
V (vel) X1 X2
direction
l1 l2 l3 l4 l1 l2 l3 l4 l1 l2 l3 l4
← 710.42 870.59 772.77 984.52 0.61 0.75 0.67 0.85 0.47 0.57 0.51 0.65
→ 705.00 782.57 980.90 883.31 0.61 0.68 0.85 0.76 0.47 0.52 0.65 0.58

Using equation (4), (5) and (6) to split the uniform delay, incremental delay
and initial queue delay separately, the results are shown in Table 2. Plan 1 and Plan 2
are simulated by VISSIM according to the basic data. Initial queue can be get from
simulation at a random time.

Table 2. The Traffic Delay of Each Section.

Plan 1 (s) Plan 2 (s)
direction
l1 l2 l3 l4 l1 l2 l3 l4
← 23.87 26.02 24.66 27.80 21.97 23.32 22.48 24.39
du
→ 23.80 24.79 27.74 26.21 21.92 22.56 24.35 23.43
← 2.47 4.69 3.12 8.63 1.05 1.60 1.24 2.20
di
→ 2.42 3.24 8.43 4.97 1.03 1.27 2.17 1.66
← 0.09 0.11 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00
dq
→ 0.00 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.08
d ← 26.43 30.81 27.78 36.55 23.02 24.92 23.78 26.59
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→ 26.23 28.13 36.29 31.29 23.02 23.82 26.53 25.18

The average passenger volume per vehicle is fixed as 1.17 (Jia et al, 2007).
According to Statistics China in 2008 (Detailed reference = ??), the hourly wage rate
for people in town is 14￥ (should use only one currency unit (eg. U.S. $) only
consistently all over the paper I guess. Dollar is used just before equation 7 above) .
Building cost and appended cost are recommended by the plan budget. Table 2 lists
the total cost of Plan 1 and Plan 2 for 1year and 3 years.

Table 3. The Cost of the Road.

Di Plan 1 (1 year) (million￥) Plan 2 (1 year) (million￥) Plan 1 (3 years) (million￥) Plan 2 (3 years) (million￥)
rect
Cb Cd Ca C Cb Cd Ca C Cb Cd Ca C Cb Cd Ca C
ion
← 0.23 0.75 0.04 1.01 0.44 0.65 0.04 1.13 0.23 2.24 0.04 2.51 0.44 1.96 0.04 2.43
l1
→ 0.23 0.74 0.04 1.00 0.44 0.65 0.04 1.12 0.23 2.21 0.04 2.48 0.44 1.94 0.04 2.42

← 0.23 1.07 0.04 1.33 0.44 0.86 0.04 1.34 0.23 3.21 0.04 3.47 0.44 2.59 0.04 3.07
l2
→ 0.23 0.88 0.04 1.14 0.44 0.74 0.04 1.22 0.23 2.63 0.04 2.90 0.44 2.23 0.04 2.70

← 0.23 0.86 0.04 1.12 0.44 0.73 0.04 1.21 0.23 2.57 0.04 2.83 0.44 2.20 0.04 2.67
l3
→ 0.23 1.42 0.04 1.68 0.44 1.04 0.04 1.51 0.23 4.26 0.04 4.52 0.44 3.11 0.04 3.59

← 0.23 1.43 0.04 1.70 0.44 1.04 0.04 1.52 0.23 4.30 0.04 4.57 0.44 3.13 0.04 3.60
l4
→ 0.23 1.10 0.04 1.37 0.44 0.89 0.04 1.36 0.23 3.30 0.04 3.57 0.44 2.66 0.04 3.13

l 1.82 8.24 0.31 10.3 3.48 6.61 0.32 10.4 1.82 24.7 0.31 26.8 3.48 19.8 0.32 23.6

The results of calculation show that the total cost of plan 1 for one year is
10.37 million ￥ which is very near with that of plan 2 (10.40 million ￥).
However, the differences between plan 1 and plan 2 are significant for three years.
Plan 2 saves much more (3.2 million ￥ in three years) than plan 1 for a longer time.
Considering the total saving as well as the increasing traffic volume in urban city,
plan 2 is recommended.

4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The equations (2)-(7) enable the decision maker to determine the cost
associated with the number of lane in terms of user delay costs. As shown in the case
study, the user delays associated with the number of lane can be calculated. In
addition, it shows that the building cost and appended cost are the major impact
factors in short period. The influence of delay cost is more and more significant as
time goes. Decision maker can choose the plan according to the length of the
expected period. Through the case study this method is especially suitable for the
road upgrading. Overall, this information is extremely valuable as it quantifies the
traffic delay costs. It is recommended that engineer consider both the direct costs of
construction and indirect traffic delay costs.
It should be noted that the equations for calculating the delay in this paper are
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suggested by HCM2000 (Detail reference missing), which are based on the traffic
characteristics of American Highway. Results of these equations, therefore, may not
accurately describe the specific conditions in China. More calibration work is
preferable, and further researches need to be done to put forward more accurate delay
model for intersections in cities of China. In addition, cost calculating is a
multi-objective task. Fuel consumption, air pollution, and safety all should be
considered in the future human-oriented cost calculating research.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research is supported by Project of National Natural Science Foundation
of China (No.50738001) and 863 Program of China: 2008AA11Z201.

REFERENCE
Xiaomo Jiang and Hojjat Adeli(2003). “Freeway Work Zone Traffic Delay and Cost
Optimization Model” Journal of Transportation Engineering, May/June
2003 230-241.
Zhan Jia, Xiaodong Pan, and Gao Ang (2007). “The Research for the Use and Design
of HOV Lane” Traffic and Transportation, July 2007 17-20.
Webster, F. V. (1958). “Traffic signal settings.” Road Research Laboratory Technical
Report, No. 39, H.M.S.O., London
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The Accessibility of Inter-city Railway Station Based on Travel Mode

Ming LU1

1
College of Traffic and Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, No.111
Erhuanlu Beiyiduan, Chengdu, China 610031; PH (86) 13666118796; email:
tigerlvming@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
The development of inter-city railway in China will greatly facilitate
people’s travel between cities. Accessibility is a fundamental concept in
transportation analysis and planning. Typically, the accessibility of an inter-city
railway station means an ease level from an origin to the railway station that can be
used to evaluate the service performance of an inter-city railway station. Therefore,
the inter-city railway station must have relatively good accessibility in order to
reflect the railway’s advantage of travel time compared with other traffic modes in
terms of four indexes: time, cost, level of comfort and reliability. In this paper, we
calculated these four indexes by evaluating the costs of travel time, travel fare and
discomfort. This paper mainly discusses the accessibility level depending on groups
of people and distances based on each travel mode.
INTRODUCTION
Since the beginning of the “11th Five-Year Plan”, China’s economy has been
developing continuously. The rapid increase of urbanization, the formation of
metropolitan areas and the proceeding of urban and rural areas integration have led
to a growing amount of trip demand for inter-city traffic. Meanwhile, people have
began to ask for higher transport qualities. In the main background, presented by
Jing-Jin inter-city railway, a series of inter-city railway lines have began to be
constructed and operated to fulfill the inter-city traffic demand for commuters and
tourists. Inter-city railways can strengthen connections among cities in metropolitan
areas. Technically, it can be classified as a regional transportation system. However,
an urban transportation system mainly consists of urban public traffic and private
traffic. Inter-city railway station happens to be the changing point of these two
traffic systems. Therefore, passengers who choose inter-city rail have to start from
origin to inter-city railway station by choosing a certain kind of transportation mode.
Figure 1 indicates the three phases when a passenger travels by inter-city
railway. Both phases I and III need other transportation modes to connect (Rietveld,
1999). Besides, because of high speed and high density are inter-city railways’
operation characteristics and travel time is usually 1-2 hours, which belongs to short
corridor. Passengers should consider the convenience level in the whole travel
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process and be more conscious about the time which is lost on the connection rather
than how much time it takes on the trains. It makes passengers pay more attention
to the ease level from an origin to the inter-city railway station. Therefore, it is
necessary to do some research on the accessibility of inter-city railways. The higher
the accessibility of an inter-city railway, the higher its operation efficiency will be.

Figure 1. The whole process of traveling by inter-city railway.

At the current time, there is still no excellent way to analyze the accessibility
of an inter-city railway station. Domestic and overseas scholars mainly discuss
effects on the accessibility of cities in metropolitan areas and economical circles
based on researches on macro-level. They demonstrated the accessibility advantages
of inter-city railway compared with highway and railways (Gutiérrezd, 2001).
These research studies mainly examine regional accessibility. However, in the urban
traffic field, there is little research about the accessibility of inter-city railway
stations; most research studies mainly focused on urban traffic, (Lu et al, 2009) and
discussed the accessibility when evaluating the performance of intra-urban public
transport network. With the development of the social economy, passengers’ travel
will become more individual. For this reason, this paper is to study the accessibility
of an inter-city railway station through qualitative and quantitative analysis based on
the travel mode which passengers choose to arrive at an inter-city railway station.
THE ACCESSBILITY OF AN INTER-CITY RAIWAY STATION
The accessibility of an inter-city railway station refers to an ease level for a
passenger to leave an origin for the railway station through different transportation
mode. This ease level includes fast level, economic level, degree of comfort and
reliability. It is an integrative evaluation that can be represented by the average avail
of each transportation mode which different groups take to get to the railway station.
As shown in Table 1, in order to quantify accessibility better and make it more
intuitive and practically significant, this paper converts the accessibility into the
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form of cost to evaluate the accessibility of an inter-city railway station (Cui, 2009).
Table 1. Indexes of Inter-city Railway Station.
Contents of Accessibility Evaluation Indexes Practical Significance
Fast Level Time Cost Travel time and value of time
Economic Level Fees Cost Travel fare
Degree of Comfort Fatigue Cost Travelers’ comfortable level
Degree of Reliability Reliability Coefficient Amending the time cost

EVALUATION OF ACCESSIBILITY OF INTER-CITY RAILWAY STATION

Depending on the definition of the accessibility of an inter-city railway
station, the four major factors affecting accessibility are indexes of fast level,
economic level, degree of comfort and reliability (Ying et al, 2006). The following
section mainly focuses on detailed analyses of these four major factors.
Fast level. The amount of time in the process that passengers travel from an
origin to a railway station is affected by the traffic obstacles brought on by different
transportation modes and transfer abilities between each travel mode and station.
Traffic obstacles. For passengers, although each travel mode has the same
geometric distance between the origin and the station, each travel mode has its own
unique characteristic in the network’s framework and in transportation. Each traffic
mode has its accommodable range of travel distances. If a passenger’s travel
distance is not in the range of what the chosen traffic mode has, this travel mode will
bring him or her a certain degree of traffic obstacles, causing inconvenience in the
travel process. Therefore, a certain kind of quantitative method should be taken to
show the normal traffic characteristics of different travel modes. This paper defines
this concept as traffic obstacles and describes it in the following exponential
function:
S m = exp(di - r m ) (1)

In the above formula, Sm stands for the traffic obstacle when taking the traffic
mode m; di stands for the geometric distance between passenger’s origin i and the
geometric center of the inter-city railway station; rm stands for the accommodable
travel distance that traffic mode m has.
Transfer ability. The transfer abilities between an inter-city railway station
and each urban transportation mode, in some degree, determines the passenger flow
distributing ability of a station. Stations with good transfer ability can shorter
passengers’ time lost in transfers between different traffic modes. Apparently, in the
same network, the way of integrative ``non-stop``, compared to the simplex ``Platter
Type`` layout, has better transfer ability in inter-city railway and higher efficiency of
passenger flow distributing. Investigations indicated that the traffic share of each
traffic mode connecting inter-city railway is also one of the major factors which has
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influence on the transfer ability of each transportation mode. Therefore, this paper
describes the transfer ability between inter-city railway stations and each urban
transportation mode as follows:
c b
Cm = n m m (2)
å cm b m
m

In the above formula, Cm stands for the transfer ability of transportation mode
m in an inter-city railway station; cm stands for the mode specific coefficient of
transfer ability, determined by field investigations and expert evaluations, and
affected by passengers’ transferring distances, transferring costs, the conveniences of
car parking and other influences; βm stands for the traffic share that traffic mode m
has in inter-city railway stations.
Calculation method of time cost. The theoretical expectation time that
passengers travel from origins to inter-city railway stations can be transferred into
cost with the coefficient γ1, which stands for the labor values within different groups
of people. Then, time cost can be quantified by the function of traffic obstacles and
transfer ability as follows:
Anm = g 1n t m S m (1 - Cm ) (3)

In the above formula, Anm stands for the time cost of the group of people n
traveling by traffic mode m; γn1 stands for per hour labor values of group people n;
tm stands for the theoretical expectation time that traffic mode m needs; Sm stands for
traffic obstacles of transportation mode m ; Cm stands for the transfer ability in a
station that transportation mode m has.
Economic level. The major factor which affects economic level is the ticket
fare of each traffic mode. This paper defines the fare cost of each traffic mode as
follows:

f = fm (4)

In the above formula, f m stands for the fare cost of traffic mode m.
Degree of Comfort. Passengers’ travel comfort is mainly measured by
vibrations, noise, temperature, degree of crowding and other indexes. The vibrations
index can be found by doing theoretical mechanic researches and measured by
decibel (db); the temperature index can be evaluated by Celsius degrees (°C); the
degree of crowding can be measured by the average space each passenger has.
According to investigations and statistics about passengers’ subjective
assessment of these four indexes , this paper gives six comfort levels ranging from
0-5: Perfect, good, normal, discomfort, quite discomfort, great discomfort. Among
them, level 0 means perfect, while level 5 means great discomfort. Finally, the
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summation of these four indexes is converted to fatigue coefficient.

The fatigue coefficient can be understood as the time which is used for
recovering from fatigue when a unit of passengers suffered a certain kind of travel
environment in a unit of time. This paper uses γ2 to stand for the fatigue coefficient.
Therefore, passengers’ fatigue cost for travel from an origin to a station can
be described as follows:
4
F m = g 1nt mg 2n å d mj (5)
j =1

In the above formula, γn2 stands for the fatigue cost coefficient of group of
4 m
people n; å dj stands for the summation of four comfort levels of traffic mode m.
j =1

Reliability. The complexity of urban transportation systems, traffic

congestion due to road source shortages, and contrasts in operations of each
transportation mode caused differences between theoretical time cost and actual time
cost that each traffic mode takes to get to the inter-city railway station. Therefore, it
is necessary to amend the predicted time cost that passengers took to get to a station,
according to the punctuality of each transportation mode. This paper amends time
cost by defining the coefficient of time reliability:
q =qm (6)
m
In the above formula, θ stands for the reliability coefficient of traffic mode
m, which can be evaluated by various reliability degree evaluation methods. This
paper did not do further research about this.
Therefore, the amended time cost can be described as follows:
A*nm = g 1n t m S mq m (1 - Cm ) (7)

Section Summary. From what has been discussed above, the accessibility
of inter-city railway station can be calculated by the summation of time cost
(amended), fare cost, and fatigue cost:
CAnm = A*nm + f m + F m (8)

CASE ANALYSIS
Background. This paper takes Cheng-Yu inter-city railway as an example to
calculate accessibility of inter-city railway station. As Chengdu No1 and No2
subway is going to be in operation, citizens in Chengdu have the following 5 major
travel modes: (1) urban public transits；(2) subways；(3) taxi/private cars；(4)
bicycles；(5) walking. Calculating by the standard defined by the national “11th
Five-Year Plan” that people who have 100,000 RMB annual income belong to the
high-income groups, their γ1 is 40 RMB per hour; referring to the average GDP
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which is 30,855 RMB in Chengdu in 2008, low-income groups’ γ1 are 11 RMB per
hour. This paper is mainly focusing on accessibility differences from the choice of
transportation mode from origins to stations. Therefore, situations in which
passengers use more than one traffic mode to get to stations are not discussed in this
paper. Because of data shortage, we cannot measure parameter Sm, θm and γ2
precisely. This paper assumed these three parameters mentioned above according to
experiences. Meanwhile, this paper classified the distances which passengers travel
from origins to stations into two situations based on urban citizens’ travel
characteristics, which are distances within 5 km and within 15 km.
Related Data. Data needed by the calculation case in this paper are showed
in Tables 2-4.
Table 2. Data Related in the Situation of Distance within 15 km.
Travel modes Time(hour) Cost(RMB) Sm*θm Cm
Urban public transit 1 2 1.3 4
Subway 0.5 6 1 5
Taxi/Private cars 0.75 20 1.5 3
Bicycles 1.5 0 2 2
Walking 2 0 5 1

Table 3. Data Related in the Situation of Distance within 5 km.

Travel modes Time(hour) Cost(RMB) Sm*θm Cm
Urban public transit 0.3 2 1 4
Subway 0.2 3 1 5
Taxi/Private cars 0.25 8 1 3
Bicycles 0.35 0 1.5 2
Walking 0.5 0 2 1

Table 4. Other Related Data.

Travel modes Vibration Noise Crowd Temperature Traffic ridership
Urban public transit 5 3 5 4 40%
Subway 4 4 5 5 29%
Taxi/Private cars 1 2 0 1 24%
Bicycles 0 1 0 2 5%
Walking 0 1 0 2 2%

Data Processing.
As stated earlier, two kinds of people (high-income groups and low-income
groups) and two kinds of ranges (within 15 km and 5 km) are considered in the
calculation. That is to say, we calculated the accessibility of inter-city railway
station in four situations; see Table 5.
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Table 5. Four Situations in Calculating Accessibility.

Situation Income Distance
1 high-income 15 km
2 low-income 15 km
3 high-income 5 km
4 low-income 5 km

According to formula (8):

CA1,1
* = 1´ 40 ´1.3 ´ (1 - 41.4%) + 2 + 1´ 40 ´ 0.05 ´13 = 67.2 RMB (9)

In the above equation, CA1,1

* stands for the inter-city railway station

accessibility when travelers choosing the transportation mode (1) in situation 1.

Table 6. Calculation Results (Within 15 km).
Travel modes High-income group(RMB) Low-income group(RMB)
Urban public transit 67.2 19.93
Subway 38.2 14.855
Taxi/Private cars 60.2 31.055
Bicycles 123 33.825
Walking 404 111.1

Table 7. Calculation Results (Within 5 km).

Travel modes High-income group(RMB) Low-income group(RMB)
Urban public transit 14 5.3
Subway 11 5.2
Taxi/Private cars 18 10.75
Bicycles 21 5.775
Walking 40 11

Result Analyzing. We can draw some conclusions by the calculated results.

For high-income groups, when origins are far away from stations, public traffic is a
good travel mode and the subway has the most advantages. The result that there is
little diversity between taking taxi/private car and choosing public traffic indicates
that economic level, degree of comfort and fast level are all major factors which
high-income groups take into consideration. When origins are near stations,
subways, urban public transit and taxi/private cars are all acceptable modes to take.
For low-income groups, when origins are far away from stations, public
traffic, especially subways, have far better accessibility than taxi/private cars. It
indicates that economic level and fast level are major factors in which low-income
groups take into consideration. When origins are near stations, bicycles have the
best accessibility to stations. Subways and urban public transit come in second.
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Taxi/private cars have the least accessibility because of its low economic level.
CONCLUSION
The accessibility of inter-city railway stations reflects its attraction to urban
transportation systems. This paper adopted the indexes of time cost, fare cost and
fatigue cost to quantify the accessibility of stations and summarized a series of ways
to evaluate it. By analyzing accessibility of different people groups and different
travel modes, we drew the conclusion that for the same people group, there are
differences in each transportation mode’s accessibility of station. In general, urban
track transportation has the best accessibility of station and it is suitable for different
people groups and different travel distances. Meanwhile, for high-income groups,
taxi/private cars come second. Bicycles have good accessibility of stations for low-
income groups when the travel distances are short. The conclusions above will play
a role in the planning, construction and management of inter-city railway stations.
REFERENCES
Rietveld, P. (1999). “The accessibility of railway stations: the role of the bicycle in
The Netherlands.” Journal of Transportation Research Part D, 5(2000),
71-75.
Gutiérrezd, J. (2001). “Economic potential and daily accessibility: an analysis of the
accessibility impact of the high-speed line Madrid-Barcelona-French
border.” Journal of Transport Geography, 9(4), 229-242.
YING, X.W. and SHI, J. (2006) “Some Studies of the Accessibility of Large
Aeronautic Hub.” Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and
Information Technology, 6(6), 136-142.
LU, F. Q. and CHEN, X. W. (2009). “Assessing Performance of Public Transit
Network Using Network-Based Accessibility Measures.” Critical Issues in
Transportation Systems Planning, Development, and Management, ASCE,
1021-1026
CUI, X. T. (2009) “The Evaluation Methods on the Accessibility of Passenger
Transport Hub.” Journal of Changsha University, 23(4), 15-17.
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An Analysis for the Departure Delays in QingDao Aerodrome

Nan Li1 Zhiqiang Liu2 and Xiaohao Xu3

1
Nan Li, Air Traffic Management Research Center, Civil Aviation University of
China, Tianjin, China. PH (86)13820514532;email:nanli@cauc.edu.cn
2
Zhiqiang Liu, Air Traffic Management Research Center, Civil Aviation University of
China, Tianjin, China. PH (86)15122289530;email:zqliu85@163.com
3
Xiaohao Xu, Air Traffic Management Research Center, Civil Aviation University of
China, Tianjin, China, PH (86)13502129701;email:xhxu@cauc.edu.cn

Abstract
Concerning the increasingly serious problem of delays in flights, a method is
proposed in this paper based on the Visual Simmod tools. By this means, a dynamic
simulation model of QingDao Aerodrome is established, and an analysis about every
component of departure delay is shown in the following passages, which provide a
better comprehension for flights optimization.

1, Introduction
As the increase in air traffic flow, the aerodrome has become a major bottleneck
in the air traffic control. The increasingly busy aerodrome operation brought serious
flights congestion, which further lead to flights delays. Usually, the cost of delays in
airborne is greater than the cost of delays on the ground, so that when there is a
conflict between the inbound flights and the departure flights, more priorities would
be provided to inbound flights, which means that the departure delays occupy a
greater proportion of delays in the total delays. Due to the great influence in
departure delays, how to deal with every component about departure delays is a
serious problem in the operation of aerodrome authority and airline.
2, Modeling and Simulation
2.1 Description about Visual Simmod
Simmod is a dynamic simulation model based on discrete-time, which is
proposed and issued as a software package by FAA in 1978. The software was
originally concerned about two aspects of aircraft: ground traffic management and
fuel consumption estimate. Later, after several upgrades and improvements, it
illustrates a tremendous advantage in flight delays statistics and aerodrome’s capacity
assessment.
The operation principle about Visual Simmod is establishing the discrete event
model, which means the exact time of the event is not consecutive, the state variables
change constantly and the time is discrete. The model simulation is a random process,
including random linear variables, such as the gate occupancy time, the separation
time between departures and arrivals, the clone number of flights and the Take-off
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Run Available. The seeds used to produce the uniform random numbers are also
random. However, the same seeds correspond to the uniform random numbers.
2.2 Description about Terminal Layout
We select flights in QingDao international aerodrome as the research object,
combined with the geographic information, aerodrome chart, STAR (Standard
Instrument Arrival) and SID(Standard Instrument Departure)provided by the
NAIP(National Aeronautical Information Publication). As shown in figure1.

Figure 1. Airfield and Approach Layout of the Aerodrome.

2.3 Description about Flights Data
The data information is derived from an April day in Flights forecast of
QingDao Aerodrome. The total departures flights and total arrivals flights are both
131.
Here are some notes:
1) Set the wake turbulence intervals and final approach intervals according to
aircraft classification.
Generally, it follows the default packet type—GA, SML, HVY, LRG. GA is
representative of general aviation, SML means small narrow-body aircraft, and HVY
and LRG mean heavy and large wide-body aircraft. As a result of different
classification criteria, the last two overlap with each other. In practice, the medium
aircraft is corresponding to LRG, and the heavy aircraft is corresponding to HVY.
The rules of wake turbulence intervals and final approach intervals are shown in
Table 1, (unit nm)
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Table 1. Minimum wake turbulence intervals and final approach intervals

according to aircraft classification.
(wake turbulence Trailing aircraft type
intervals/final
approach intervals)
Leading aircraft GA HVY LRG SML
type
GA 3/3.2 5.4/3.2 5.4/3.2 5.4/3.2
HVY 8.1/8.1 8.1/8.1 8.1/8.1 8.1/8.1
LRG 8.1/8.1 8.1/8.1 8.1/8.1 8.1/8.1
SML 8.1/3.2 8.1/3.2 8.1/3.2 8.1/3.2
2) Set the Runway Exits
The four gates in the upper part of the picture are used for cargo flights. So exits
(1) and (2) are used for cargo flights. The other parts of the flights are set as the
follows, 10% of the flights through (3), 80% through (4) and 10% through (5).
3) Set the route radial separations
The radar interval of minimum standard for departures and arrivals in domestic
terminal area is defined as follows: within the range of radar antenna the distance is
6km, outside of the range is 10km.
3, Results and Analysis
3.1 Results implementation
The departure delay is composed of Airborne Delay, Taxi-out Delay and
Departure Queue Delay. The average departure delays we could get from the initial
flights data is 86.2 seconds, as we increase the number of flights by cloning function
in Simmod, the average departure delay and every compositions also increase. We
could get the results as shown in Figure 2:
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Figure2. Delay curves according to total number of flights.

3.2 Results analysis
1) Experts in the aviation industry agree that facilities and terminals can
perform adequately within a maximum daily delay of 10 minutes per aircraft. In the
picture above, the rate of growth in flights corresponding to the time 10 min is 64%.
Usually the arrival delays are lower than departure delays, so we could believe that
the maximum theoretical capacity of the terminal is restricted by departure delays,
which is (131+131)*(1+64%)=429.
2) Under normal number of flights, the average departing delay is 86.18 minutes,
and each part of the departure delay is listed as follows: the airborne delay is 62.47
minutes, the departure queue delay is 23.65 and the taxi out delay is 0.06 minutes.
3) The airborne delay accounts for a majority of the departure delay, due to the
heavy mixed aircraft fleets at the very beginning and the tightly restricted intervals.
4) The Departure. Queue delay increases a little faster than the airborne delay,
because later there are more aircrafts waiting in the departure queue, causing longer
delays averagely.
5) The Taxi-out delays could be ignored. It does not increase apparently until
the flight number exceeds the maximum theoretical capacity of the terminal.
4. Recommendations
1) The actual capacity of the QingDao aerodrome could be increased in the
future, with the limitation of maximum theoretical capacity of 429. The flight
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sequence should be optimized by the airlines and airports together.

2) The uniform aircraft fleets could not only bring huge profits for the operation
of the airlines, but also reduce the departure delays, especially for the airborne
delays.
5. Acknowledgment
The authors would like to thank for support from High-tech research and
development program of China (863, No.2006AA12A105) and Special Fund from
the Collegiate Basic Scientific Research Bursary of CAUC (No. ZXH2009D004).

6. References

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). (2003). “Simmod mannal: How simmod

works”
Dai, Fuqing and Xu, Siying (2008). “Methodology for Estimating and Enhancing
Terminal Capacity”, Proceedings of First International Conference on
Modelling and Simulation, August.5-7, pp. 109-113
Xu, Ning, Sheery, Lance, Laskey, Kathryn B. (2008). “Multi-Factor Model for
Predicting Delays at U.S. Airports” J, Journal of the Transportation
Research Board, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies,
volume 2052, pp.62-71
Allan, S.S., Beesley, J. A., Evans, J. E., Gaddy, S.G. (2001). “Analysis of Delay
Causality at Newark International Airport”, 4th USA/Europe Air Traffic
Management R&D Seminar, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA.
Wang, Chao, Zhang, Xinyue, Xu, Xiaohao (2008). “Simulation Study on Airfield
System Capacity Analysis Using SIMMOD.” 2008 International
Symposium Computational Intelligence and Design, pp,87-90
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Transferring Characteristic of Urban Rail Stations based on

Stations Functional Orientation
Lijun CHEN1, Xuewu CHEN1
1
School of Transportation, Southeast University, Jiangsu Provincial Key Lab of
Transportation Planning and Management, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, 210096, China;
PH: 15850550543; E-mail: 2006clj@sina.com.cn  
ABSTRACT
In government policy, urban rail transit is regarded as the backbone of public transit
of large cities in China. The stations with different patterns and attributes require
diverse cohesion demands when integrating urban rail transit and surface transit. In
this paper, the relationship between land use and a multimodal transport system
within a station influence area is analyzed using the “surface-line-point” rule for
station location.    An influence index system with nine function-relative indexes is
established based on land use and multimodal transit hierarchies. Principal
Component Analysis (PCA) is used to extract the function feature for functional
orientation of urban rail stations. Combined with investigation results, function and
main index features, mode split for transferring to urban rail stations, and daily
passenger flow distribution are analyzed for different station patterns. These
characteristics provide necessary guidance for rail-surface transport systems.

INTRODUCTION
A sustainable urban multimodal transport system requires effective
alternatives to deliver transferring planning (Michael, 2004). In government policy,
urban rail transit is regarded as the backbone of public transit of large cities in China.
Consequently, it is necessary to build reasonable transferring facilities, according to
the attributes of urban rail stations, before congestion and inefficiency appear.
To our best knowledge, most of the related literatures only provide a
qualitative judgment of station patterns as a convenient basis rather than use
quantitative methods to explore the functional orientation of urban rail stations. In
Cities on Rails: The Redevelopment of Railway Stations and their Surroundings,
Berttolini (1998) put forward a view, referred to as “Place Guidance”, which focuses
upon different land use functions in the station areas. This is the prototype of the
transferring concern from the point of stations. Land use and transport are being
considered as the function of urban rail stations, which analyzed the construction of
urban rail station area based on station function (Hui, 2002). Furthermore, urban
rail stations are divided into four types; i.e. super-large scale stations, large-scale

 
 
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stations, medium scale stations and small scale stations, according to different
transferring bus routes, passenger flow and transferring flow (Qin, 2006). It was
based on the point of transport rather than land use. In this paper, a quantitative
method for the functional orientation of urban rail stations is proposed, while
considering both land use and multimodal transit system. Based on the Principal
Component Analysis and clustering, transferring characteristics are analyzed for
different types of urban rail stations, including function and main index features,
mode split for transferring to urban rail stations, and daily passenger flow
distribution. 
FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE INDEX SYSTEM
Urban rail stations are not only the nodes of urban rail transit systems, but
also the anchorage points of urban multimodal transit systems. Therefore, the
functions are related to both land use pattern and transport passenger flow in the
vicinity of the stations in consideration. In this paper, the relationship between land
use and a multimodal transport system within the station influence area is analyzed
using the “surface-line-point” rule for station location. What land-use hierarchy
concerns most is urban space structure from the “surface” point of view, while the
key of multimodal hierarchy is transportation network and transportation terminal
yards from “line-point” point of view.
Characteristic Hierarchy Framework
Urban rail transit systems provide convenient commuting service to citizens
who have to travel from home to school, work or other destinations. To a great
extent, the type and intensity of land-use, location of residence and employment
influence the function of urban rail transit stations. In general, peaks of passenger
flow appear every morning and evening of workdays in urban rail stations with
distinctive features of residential and commercial land use. Consequently, land-use
hierarchy is analyzed based on the space structure of cities, which can indicate the
disposition of population and employment.

Figure 1. Land-Use Hierarchy Framework.

In a multimodal transit system, transferring is the most important component.

A scientific transferring system, including seamless or acceptable transferring
facilities (routes and stations), is more likely to improve connectivity and

 
 
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accessibility of urban rail transit and other transport modal systems. Multimodal
hierarchy is analyzed based on transport network and stations, from which passenger
flow characteristic can be included.

Figure 2. Multimodal Hierarchy Framework.

Functional Influence Index System

Based on the analysis above, an influence index system set with nine
correlated indicators is established. Theses nine indicators include area proportion
of residential land, commercial land efficiency, density of residential population and
employed population, equivalent network density of urban road, urban rail density,
main bus-transit routes density, number of bus transfer hubs, and daily passenger
flow of transport stations. In this case, we use a circle with a radius of 1.1 km as an
influence scope, which is what functional influence indexes of urban rail stations are
calculated.
Table 1. Functional Influence Index.
No.  Index  Implication  Formulation 
Land‐Use Hierarchy Indexes

1 proportion of residential land

2 commercial land efficiency

3 density of residential population /

4 density of employed population /

Notes: : area of residential plots, : area of commercial plots, : area of

 
 
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influence scope of urban rail stations, : efficiency factor of commercial plot, the

value can be 1, 2, or 3 according to the land developed extent.

Multimodal Hierarchy Indexes 

5 equivalent network density of urban road / *K

6 main bus-transit routes density

/

7 number of bus transfer hubs Gained from Investigation

8 urban rail density

9 daily passenger flow of transport stations Gained from Investigation

Notes:  : length of center lines in urban roads, : area of influence scope of urban
rail stations, K: reduction factor of urban road traffic capacity, the value can be 1,

0.9, or 0.8 according to the location of roads, : length of bus routes, : area of

bus service area, : length of rail routes, : area of urban rail service district.

FUNCTIONAL EXTRACTION BASED ON PCA

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a commonly used tool for the
exploratory analysis of a numerical data set (Xiao, 2006). In order to decompose
the displacement field into temporal and spatial modes, we employed the PCA as the
main procedure. In this section, we briefly summarize the procedure of PCA in its
application to the actual displacement field observed in urban multimodal transit
networks. Considering four variants of land-use and five variants of transport as
data sources, feature extraction of the Principal Component Analysis is used to
extract several principal components for urban rail stations.

 
 
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Table 2. PCA Matrix Based on Functional Influence Index System Data Set.

Index

Sample 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

…… …… …… …… …… …… …… …… …… ……

Figure 3. Process of the Principal Component Analysis.

Rail routes 1 and 2 of Suzhou City are taken as an example for practical study
under consideration of land use and transport. We calculated the indicators and
gained data samples in the reasonable attracting area of 45 urban rail stations. In the
proposed model, a leading role of every principal component is inferred according to
the varied value of each station.

 
 
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The contribution rate is defined as the principal component's percentage

eigenvalue of total. We calculate the contribution rate of principal component

using the percentage of variance for nine indexes components as follows:

= (1)

The cumulative rate is represented in the form of:

= (2)

where is the percentage of variance for index i, a natural number from 1

to 9.
Based on the Total Variance Explained Diagram (Table 3), we can choose

four principal components according to two rules: (1) the cumulative rate is close
to 80%; and (2) the eigenvalue is larger than 1.
From the analysis above, we can find that the first principal component can

take the place of and , the second one can take the place of and ,

the third one can take the place of , and , while the forth one can take the

place of and .

Table 3. Total Variance Explained Diagram of Rail Routes 1 and 2, Suzhou City.
Total Variance Explained

Initial Eigenvalues Enaction Sums of Squared Loadings Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings
Component Total % ofVariance Cumulative % Total % ofVariance Cumulative % Total % ofVariance Cumulative %
1 2.574 2B.601 28.601 2.574 28.601 28.601 2.336 25.955 25.955
2 1.630 18.1.11 46.712 1.630 18.111 46.712 1.668 18.531 44.487
3 1.249 13.BB2 60.594 1.249 13.882 60.594 1.399 15.539 60.026
4 1.201 13.346 73.941 1.201 13.346 73.941 1.252 13.915 73.941
5 .719 7.9B7 81.928
6 .644 7.153 89.080
7 .544 6.049 95.129
e .427 4.743 99.872
9 .012 .128 100.000
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

 
 
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Clustering analysis for principal components of 45 rail stations is figured out

to gain a clustering pedigree based on their values. Consequently, we can obtain
station clusters from the pedigree. Combined with practical situations and
characteristics of clustering, it is concluded that five station patterns could be used:
dwelling district station, shopping district station, integrated transit hub, point of
presence (POP), and ordinary station.
TRANSFERRING CHARACTERISTIC OF URBAN RAIL STATIONS
Function and Main Index Features of Urban Rail Stations
Dwelling district stations are located in areas where dwelling plots
concentrate relatively high and transferring condition is good for residents.
Shopping district stations are located in economic centers in the vicinity of
commercial business, banking business and entertainment. Integrated transit hubs
are located in the large-scale point of urban transport system toward external places,
where transferring feature is the most obvious. Point of presence (POP) locates in
the small-scale point of urban transport system towards suburbs, and mainly provides
transferring service to medium passenger flow within the city. The feature of
ordinary stations is not as obvious as the other four types above.
Table 4. Main Index Feature for Urban Rail Stations.

Type of Station Main Index Feature

Dwelling district station >30%, >12000 persons /

Shopping district station >70%

Integrated transit hub >6000persons/day

6000persons/day> >0 persons/day;

Point of presence (POP)
>4.5km/ and >0.7km/

Ordinary station Except above

Mode Split for Transferring to Urban Rail Stations

Priority could be taken for different types of urban rail stations to set up
transferring facilities according to mode split demands. The supporting SP and RP
data were obtained from a questionnaire survey of Suzhou Railway, in which
socioeconomic characteristics were regarded as attribute variables. A

 
 
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willingness-to-pay measure was also derived from SP data. From the data obtained
from the survey, the mode split rate between rail and other commuting modes in
every individual railway station can be forecasted. Different types of urban rail
stations need different transferring priority sequences:
(1) Dwelling district station: walking→cycling→bus→car→taxi, 
(2) Shopping district station: walking→bus→taxi/car→cycling, 
(3) Integrated transit hub: bus→walking/cycling→taxi/car, 
(4) Point of presence: walking→bus→cycling→car→taxi, and 
(5) Ordinary station: walking→bus→cycling→car→taxi. 
From Table 5, we can find that bus is the most important transferring mode,
except for walking, and car is not frequently used to transfer to urban rail stations
except for shopping district stations and integrated transit hubs. Also, cycling is a
mode with huge potential for transferring to urban rail stations.
Table 5. Mode Split Rates for Transferring to Urban Rail Stations.

Type of Station Bus Cycling Walking Car Taxi

Dwelling district station 14.40% 17.80% 64.40% 3.20% 0.20%

Shopping district station 29.60% 8.00% 41.70% 10.50% 10.20%

Integrated transit hub 42.70% 18.70% 19.80% 9.70% 9.10%

Point of presence 22.20% 21.00% 54.30% 2.40% 0.10%

Ordinary station 21.20% 15.90% 61.55% 1.05% 0.30%

Daily Passenger Flow Distribution

Commuting passenger flow to schools and work places mainly appears at
dwelling district stations. Obviously there are two corresponding get-on and get-off
peaks of passenger flow. Therefore, bi-direction peaks are distinct in the dwelling
district station. In shopping districts, entertainment activities and commuting
passenger flow to work places are concentrated. Uni-directional peak reflects a tide
feature and get-on and get-off passenger flow peaks stagger in the morning and
evening.

 
 
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Figure 4. Daily Passenger Flow Distribution.

In an integrated transit hub, the change of flow is not obviously in the day,
while bi-direction get-on and get-off passenger flows are large. Flows produced by
passenger road stations in the surrounding point of presence (POP) often burst
owning to the dispatch of coaches, which can be described as many burst of get-on
and get-off passenger flow peaks. Passenger flow in ordinary station is equal but
with smaller quantity.
CONCLUSION
In this paper, a characteristic hierarchy framework is established. We then
propose a method using Principal Component Analysis to extract function feature
and differentiate five types of urban rail stations. Rail routes 1 and 2 of Suzhou
City are taken as an example for practical study. In this case, transferring
characteristics, including function and main index features, mode split for
transferring, and daily passenger flow distribution, are analyzed based on the five
types of urban rail stations.
REFERENCES
Hui, Y. (1998). Planning and Construction of the Areas round the Rail Transportation
Station, Urban Planning Forum of China.
Bertolini, L.,and Spit, T. (1998). Cities on Rails: The Redevelopment of Railway
Stations and their Surroundings, New York.
Michael, K, Anthony, B, and Christopher, U. (2004). “Factors Influencing Light-Rail

 
 
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Station Boardings in the United States” Journal of Transportation Research

Part A.
Qin, Y. (2006). “An Analysis on Rail Transit Transfer System Planning”, Urban
Transport of China.
Xiao, J. (2006). Intelligent Pattern Recognition, South China Press of Technology,
Guangzhou.
Zheng, M. (2006). Development Era of Urban Rail Transit, China Press of Rail,
Bejing.

 
 
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Applications, Issues and Lessons of Emme ODME Procedure for Highway

Design Projects and City General Plans

Jiahao WU1,2,3,4 ,Bing SONG1,2,4, Yuanqiu BAO1, JiaLe WU1

1
Wu & Song Associates (Shanghai), Ltd., Rm13005B, 1Bld, No. 335 Guoding Rd, Shanghai, P.R.
China; PH (86) 21-65111508; FAX (86) 21-55666027; email: jiahao.wu@wu-song.com
2
W & S Solutions, LLC (USA), 4900 Hopyard Rd., Suite 100, Pleasanton, CA 94588, USA; PH
(925) 468-4132; FAX (925) 468-4128; email: jiahao.wu@wu-song.com
3
Shanghai University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, P.R. China
4
Shanghai Marine University, Shanghai, P.R. China

ABSTRACT
This paper defines the origin and destination demand estimation process in
terms of its mathematical formulations for estimating OD demands based on counts
of both road segments and turning movements and original OD demands. Then we
review the ODME procedures in practice and discuss how this process is
implemented and applied in Emme, which includes data preparations, macro
computations, the results analysis and result outputs. Then we identify several areas
of modeling concern and possible issues with the ODME procedure in practice. In
fact, this process can be used as an effective modeling tool for finding potential
problems with the land use data, traffic counts and the modeling networks,
especially for more detailed modeling requirements. We have applied this process
for highway interchange designs, city general plans, traffic impact studies, and the
model calibrations in California. We propose a practical guideline called “a 3-Stage
ODME based demand forecasting framework” based on various discussions and
projects in hope that this may be used in China as well.
INTRODUCTION
The OD demand estimation (ODME, also called OD demand adjustment) is
a well established process in the literature of transportation science and research
(Nguyen 1983, Ortuzar and Willumsen 1994, Yang, et al. 1994). This kind of
procedures are used to estimate either single or multi-class OD demands based on
observed traffic counts and some given OD demands. During recent Transportation
Research Board (TRB) conferences, several research and application papers were
devoted to either the use of or the development of ODME methodologies. Florian
and Noriega (2010) introduced a new ODME algorithm to solve an OD demand
estimation problem, which includes the multi-class OD demand and traffic counts as
part of the objective function, and proposed a good solution procedure, which is
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implemented in Emme (INRO, 2007). Barcelo et al. (2010) studied a dynamic OD

matrix estimation for the freeways analysis based on blue tooth traffic monitoring
information. In addition, Babazadeh et al. (2010) developed the ODME technology
for the transit OD demand estimation. A good literature review about ODME
problems and solution procedures was presented in Florian and Noriega (2010). For
the multi-class demand forecasting modeling formulations and their solution
algorithms, see Florian, Wu and He (2003) and Wu, Florian and He (2006).
In practice, many ODME methodologies are used in highway design,
regional model developments, and traffic impact studies. Wu and Thnay (2001)
proposed an ODME-based methodology to estimate link and turning movement
volumes and developed an OD-based difference method for the first time to estimate
the future volumes for a single class demand with both turning movement and road
segment counts. This method is an improvement over the post process of link or
turning movement volumes, called difference or ratio methods (TRB, 1983). Since
then, this method has been extensively improved from both theoretical and practical
points of view, a reviewed version of it serves as a fundamental basis for this paper.
An ODME procedure was incorporated into Contra Costa Transportation Authority
(CCTA, 2006) modeling procedure. This procedure required the calibration of the
travel demand forecasting model to the furthest extent possible using traditional
techniques of the 4-Step modeling process. Following extensive review by local
jurisdictions in the county, 93 percent of the validation targets were met. ODME can
be used to reach closure on the remaining seven percent of the validation targets..
However, no discussion was provided on the use of the ODME technique for the
review of the network and the land use data, and how this adjusted OD demand
would be used for forecasting the future demands.
The ODME procedure can been used for model calibration together with a
practical measurement criteria for the differences between the observed counts and
the computed volumes. CCTA (2006). The District 4 of Department of
Transportation of California (Caltrans) establishes some informal criteria, which are
similar to that of CCTA. The Guide book on Statewide Travel Forecasting by the
Federal Highway Administration (March 1999) indicates that the ODME process is
worth investigating in the development of the regional models, with no specific
guideline on how to use it. Furthermore, Havey et al. (1993) establishes a set of
model calibration criteria based on the PRMSE (Percent Root Mean Square Errors),
and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA, 2001) provided another set of
calibration criteria with validation results based on results of government agencies in
the US. These criteria serve as guidelines in many practices.
In the past, many valid concerns of applying the ODME procedures existed.
Firstly, since several ODME mathematical formulations and the solution algorithms
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 157
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are used in some commercial transportation planning packages, in order to use these
ODME methods, it is important to understand the theories and the solution
algorithms and the analysis tools. In this paper, our practices and numerical results
are based on applications of Emme software (INRO, 2007). This ODME procedure
is based on a bi-level optimization with a gradient solution algorithm. Due to the
nature of the gradient algorithm used in Emme, the solutions are close to the original
OD demands, which is a very practical property as compared to other software.
Secondly, the ODME is not intended to just fit the OD demands into traffic counts
based on a particular mathematical model. In many cases, if the network topologies,
attributes and the land use data are not well prepared and reviewed, there may not be
good results in terms of the root-mean square error. Even if a good fitness is
obtained, the differences between the unadjusted OD demand and the adjusted OD
demand tend to be very large without valid reasons. Thirdly, the ODME process is a
sophisticated process in terms of the data preparation, the execution of the process
and the review of the results, which prevents urban planners and traffic engineers
from taking advantage of it due to the time requirements Fourthly, without proper
original OD demands, only traffic counts are used to estimate an OD demand, which
may show a good fit to the counts. Since the derived OD demands are not based on
the land use data and even the trip rates and several solutions to a set of counts may
be obtained, the derived OD demand may not be justified.
In this paper, we focus on the vehicle related ODME procedures, while the
similar idea can be extended to the transit ODME procedures as well. The main
contributions of this paper are two-fold:
1. Development of a conceptual framework of the ODME procedure into three
major stages:
x Pre 4-step demand forecasting procedure, including data preparation and
review;
x 4-step demand forecasting procedure including trip rates, friction factors,
time of day factors and assignment attributes such as the v/c ratios;
x Post-4-step demand forecasting procedure including subarea analysis for
traffic operation analysis, meso-micro dynamic modeling, and peak-
spreading with constraining volumes at certain modeling gates.
2. Practical implementation and application to real world projects.
OD DEMAND ESTIMATIONS
In this section and for simplicity, we present the mathematical formulation of
the OD demand estimation (adjustment) method in terms of a single class demand.
This formulation can be extended to include the multi-class OD demands as well.
Let us define a weighting factor wt to represent the importance of data in group
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 158
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t; let A be the total set of links in the network; T the total set of groups of data ; At a

link set of base network in group t; I a set of total OD pairs; Ki a set of routes for

pair I; G the demand matrix; Nt a set of intersections in group t; M n set of turning

movements at intersection (node) n; t a group index; a a link index of base network;

I an OD pair index; k a path index; g i a demand for pair I; n an intersection index; m

a turning movement index; y year of the modeling.

Given the sets and indices above, we define the given data and variables are as
follows:
g i0 : The travel demand for pair i of the existing year 0

g iy : The travel demand for pair i of the future year y

ca (vay ) : The volume delay function on link a for total link flow va of year y

cm (umy ) : The volume delay function on turn m for total turn flow um of year y

vat : The total observed link volume of group t and link a

umt : The total observed turning movement volume of group t and turn m

hky : The path flow on the route k of year y

Cky : The path travel delay on route k of year y3

vat : The total link volume of group t of link a

u mt : The total turning movement volume of group t and turn m.

For the sake of our readers, we formulate the OD matrix estimation problem
as the following objective function:
min ¦tT
wt ( ¦ (va0  vat ) 2 
a At
¦ ¦
nN t mM n
(um0  umt ) 2 ) ( 1)
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Subject to ( v 0 , u 0 )=F( g 0 )

where function F is the well known traffic assignment problem given as follows:

¦ ³ ¦ ¦ ³
va um
min ca ( x )dx  cm ( x )dx ( 2)
0 0
a A nN mM n

¦h
k K i
k gi0 , i  I ( 3)

hk t 0, k  Ki , i  I ( 4)

va ¦h G
k K
k ak ,  a A ( 5)

um ¦h G
k K
k mk , m ( 6)

Ck ¦
a A
ca (va )G ak  ¦
tT
¦ ¦
nNt mM n
cm (um )G mk ,  k  K i ( 7)

where ( 3) is a set of the equations of conservation of flow, ( 4) is a set of the non-

negativity constraints of the path flows, ( 5) and ( 6) are the conservation of volumes
(flows) where ak (mk) is 1 if link a (turning movement m) is on route k and is zero
otherwise and ( 7) is the definition of path travel delay on path k, Ck. An efficient
algorithm was developed by Spiess (1990) for a single class OD demand adjustment
problem and was implemented as an Emme macro. Later on a new algorithm was
implemented in Emme for the multi-class OD demand estimation (adjustment)
problem as Emme macro (Florian and Noriega, 2010). Some solution procedures are
incorporated into some commercial software as well for the multi-class problems.
A 3-STAGE ODME BASED DEMAND FORECASTING FRAMEWORK
In this section, we propose a 3-Stage ODME based demand forecasting
framework, which integrates the Emme ODME process with three other 4-step
demand forecasting related modeling procedures, as shown below in Figure 1. Four
processes in this framework are described below.

1. P0: ODME Process: The ODME procedure performs the ODME

computation based original multi-class OD demands from regional models and
traffic counts
2. P1: Pre 4-Step Modeling Process: The pre 4-step demand forecasting
procedure includes a review of
x Data preparation
x Land use data
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x Network/Intersection geometries
x Network/Intersection attributes
x Traffic counts
x Modeling assumptions
3. P2: 4-Step Modeling Process: The 4-step demand forecasting procedure
includes the developments of the following components:
x Trip rates
x Friction factors
x Time of day factors
x Assignment attributes such as the v/c ratios
4. P3: Post 4-Step Modeling Process: The post-4-step demand forecasting
procedure includes the developments of the following components:
x Subarea analysis for traffic operation analysis
x Meso-micro dynamic modeling
x Peak-spreading with constraining volumes at certain modeling gates
x OD demand based difference method

In the following section, we discuss interactions of these processes, OD demand

based difference method, and their implications.

Process Interactions
As can be seen, these four processes are interrelated to each other. In fact, the
ODME process (P0) is used to enhance other three critical processes (called 3-
Stages) greatly in the demand forecasting projects. Here are just a few examples.

Stage P0~P1. If no turning movement volumes are observed at an intersection

but there are positive traffic counts for the same movements, it is necessary to
investigate the network attributes and the intersection geometries to make sure that
positive computed volumes are seen. The shortest path tools in Emme can be used to
detect potential issues. After the link counts are aggregated from the turning
movement counts or directly from road segment tube counts, we can compute the
count volumes over the capacity (v/c) at the same road segments. If these v/c ratios
are larger than one for the existing year, then either problems with traffic counts (say,
a data entry error) exist or link capacity and lanes are not correct. At this Stage,
count balances and consistencies may be performed, since these counts may be
collected in different days, traffic conditions and even with errors.
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P1: Pre 4-Step Modeling Process

x Land Use Data
x Network/Intersection
Geometries
x Network/Intersection
Attributes
x Traffic Counts
x Modeling Assumptions

P0: ODME Process

x Class OD Demands
x Network/Intersection
Attributes
x Class Traffic Counts
x Result Review
x Modeling Assumptions

P2: 4-Step Modeling Process P3: Post 4-Step Modeling Process

x Trip Generation Rates x Subarea Modeling
x Friction Factors x Peak-spreading Modeling
x Time of Day Factors x Meso-Micro Simulation
x Traffic Assignment x Traffic Operation Analysis
x OD Based Difference Methods

Figure 1. A Proposed 3-Stage ODME Based Demand Forecasting Framework.

Stage P0~P2. After a typical traffic assignment based with a demand based
ITE vehicle trip rates, if we notice that the traffic volumes are higher than the traffic
counts in the modeling region, then the trip rates are set up to be too high. In general,
the ITE trip rates are higher than that of the regional travel demand forecasting
models. We can perform trip rate reductions; revise time of day factors for the TIS
by comparing traffic volumes with counts. The comparisons can be performed at
different link count group ranges.
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Stage P0~P3. The calibration criteria for both OD demands at both Stages
P0~P2 and P0~P3 are reported to ensure that the results of traffic assignments are
reasonable (Wu 2008, CCTA 2006). The OD demand based difference method can
be implemented based on the calibrated OD demand, the original OD demands and
the future OD demands. This would ensure that the adjusted OD demands can be
used to estimate the future OD demands so that these OD demands can be
extensively compared and kept consistent with each other. In addition, a subarea
analysis tool can be performed to obtain corresponding subarea OD demands, which
can be refined for micro-meso dynamic simulations. Also, in the case of the over
congested traffic conditions, a peak spreading procedure (Wu, 2008) can be
performed by establishing constraining gates with future capacity constraints. At this
Stage, the original OD demands may be used as part of the targets.

OD Demand Difference Method

The future link and turning movement volumes may be forecasted with the OD
Demand Difference Method, that is: Future link and turn volumes are the results of
assignment of [max (original future OD demand - original existing OD demand,0) +
calibrated existing OD demand] where:

1. Original future OD demand ( g y ) is the OD demand directly computed by

the model based on the future land use data (Stage P0~P2).

2. Original existing OD demand ( g 0' ) is the OD demand directly computed by

the model based on the existing land use data (Stage P0~P2).

3. Adjusted existing OD demand ( g 0 ) is the calibrated existing OD demand

that provides both link and turning movement volumes consistent with traffic
counts (Stage P0~P3).
Thus, the final computed volumes obtained can reasonably reflect the traffic
conditions based on both existing land use data and the traffic conditions.
Mathematically, this method can be described as follows. For example, the future
turning volumes may be computed using an equation( 8), that is,

( v t , u t )= F(max(0, g y - g 0' )+ g 0 ). (8)

This equation may be changed into other expressions. The mathematical operator
max is used to ensure that the future demand is not less than the existing demand. In
practice, there could be several variations depending on the purposes of the
modeling projects. Wu and Thnay (2001) proposed to use the OD demand based
difference method as follows:
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Selected Basic Steps to Perform the OD Demand Based Difference Method

Step 1 (Stage P0~P1) Review the project area including the modeling network and
the zonal structure to determine a proper project boundary.
Step 2 (Stage P0~P1) Conduct the traffic counts that include the link and turning
movement volumes for certain periods such as AM Peak.
Step 3 (Stage P0~P2) Revise the trip rates and time of day factors.
Step 4 (Stage P0~P1) Revise the regional modeling network to reflect the details of
the real road geometry (one way or two ways, lanes and the turning
movements and etc.), connectors and zones of the existing road network in
the project area.
Step 5 (Stage P0~P1) Enter the existing traffic link and turning movement volumes
( vat and umt ) into the model. Adjust the existing OD demands gi0' to g i0 (for

all i) that pass through these traffic counts so that the computed link and
turning movement volumes ( v 0 , u 0 )=F( g i0 for all i)= F( g 0 ) will be as close

as possible to traffic volumes from counts ( v t and u t ) where F(.) refers to

the assignment function (mathematically called mapping).

Step 6 (Stage P0~P2) Verify the results. If not satisfactory, go to Step 3.
Step 7 (Stage P0~P3) Compute the future link and turning movement volumes using
(8).

Implications
The basic motivation of the development of this OD demand based method is
the fact that many regional demand forecasting models are available for project
studies, which may not be calibrated for the project levels satisfactorily but, can be
used with judicious adjustments for estimation of both link and turning movement
volumes. Depending on requirements of certain jurisdictions, a regional model is
required for the traffic impact studies and signal coordination projects. These
regional models use the land-use and/or socioeconomic data in the demand
forecasting in addition to many other modeling features like gravity models and the
mode choice models. However, the road networks and zones (Traffic Analysis Zones)
used in the model are usually very large and coarse and quiet frequently with coding
errors and the traffic volumes are far from being accurate as compared with the
existing condition. In many instances, a direct use of the link or turn based
difference methods (TRB, 1985) may not be feasible for intersections, since some
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critical links may not be present in these models. It is very important to note that
different “ODME” methods are used in the industry. The ODME methods are just
modeling tools. This Emme tool (a combination of the Emme macros) can be used to
support the modeling process with many “good” or “bad” properties of the adjusted
demands, like any other tools or software. In order to obtain reasonable results, we
all need a devoted modeling practice with many observations. This tool is very
useful and excellent in helping us in the modeling process. It is not just fitting the
OD demands to the traffic counts but offers many useful features. We need to
demonstrate that for Stage “P0~P1” condition the model calibration is reasonable
first before Stage “P0~P3” starts, which means that we just cannot apply the ODME
without performing a careful modeling process (Stages P0~P1 and P0~P2) to ensure
that the FHWA or other criteria are met. We are fully aware and it is true that some
of other “ODME” tools in other software packages or other practices (not used in
this project) might have not produced reasonable results.
Furthermore, we have not found so far noticeable and unreasonable
evidences in our submitted project results if performed properly in Emme. We did
use the OD demand based difference method for forecasting the future volumes
(P0~P3 Stage). If the link based difference method is used, it also implies the
adjustment of the future volumes and thus the future OD demands. The ODME
process is a very important model calibration tool, which can be used for many
purposes, such as:
x Identify differences between traffic counts and link volumes;
x Identify why these differences are produced;
x Identify network problems;
x Determine how to fix observed issues; and
x Provide a consistent traffic flow pattern in the entire network.

Calibration/Validation Criteria
The model calibration/validation criteria are reported by CCTA (2006), and
FHWA (1999, 2001). Although these criteria and targets are used in our modeling
reports, the final results show much better and satisfactory results, as can be seen in
Table 1 in the next section.
APPLICATIONS
The above proposed 3-Stage ODME process has been applied in many
applications, and reviewed and discussed during the project executions. Lessons
and experience have been learnt, refined and applied with many improvements over
the applications and years. Here is a list of a few selected applications in both
California and Nevada area:
1. Washoe RTC Regional Model Development
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2. San Joaquin Council of Governments Regional Model Development

3. Humboldt County General Plan
4. Mountain House Community Development
5. City of Dublin East Development
6. City of Redwood City General Plan
7. Stanford University Hospital and Shopping Center Development
8. City of Vacaville Traffic Model Development
9. Santa Clara VTA I-680/I-880 Cross Connector Study
10. Santa Clara VTA Calaveras Corridor Study
11. Caltrans I-80/San Pablo Dam Interchange Improvement
12. Caltrans I-880 Retrofit Traffic Management
Now we present some results of one such application obtained recently from
the City of Redwood City General Plan in the San Francisco Bay Area. The main
objectives of this project were to forecast the traffic volumes for years 2008 and
2035 traffic conditions for the City of Redwood City area using the City’s general
plan land use data and road networks of existing year, 1990 City General Plan and
2035 City’s General Plan and its alternatives. A new citywide traffic model as a
subarea model is developed based on the City/County Association of Governments
of San Mateo County (C/CAG) regional travel forecasting model. The modeling
area is shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3.
This model is implemented in Emme as shown in Figure 4. The City of
Redwood City model consists of two separate modeling packages: Emme Whole
Model and Emme Sub Model. The Emme Whole Model includes the modeling
process as indicated in Figure 4. It is implemented both in EMME/2 for the CCAG
model run and in Emme for the City traffic model run. The Emme Sub Model
includes the modeling process with model components in solid line. The Emme Sub
Model is simple to use in the Emme environment for traffic impact studies. In
addition, the OD demand patterns are consistent with the CCAG model results based
on the Emme subarea analysis tool, which generates the subarea OD demands. For a
regular traffic impact study, either one or several new TAZs may be created as
special generators or any one existing TAZ may be used for a project site. The trips
are determined based on ITE trip rates for special generators and regional model trip
rates for regular TAZs and the land use categories. The time of day factors are
calibrated based on the traffic counts. The whole model runs may be required after
many projects are added into the Emme Sub Model as special generators. In this
case, the land use data and the road networks of these projects need to be reviewed
and processed for a whole model run.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 166
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Figure 2. City of Redwood City Modeling Area (SOURCE?).

Figure 3. Traffic Volumes in Emme (The City of Redwood City Model).

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 167
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Figure 4. City of Redwood City Modeling Process.

In this project, a multi-class assignment ODME process was used and the
model included three OD demand classes: drive-alone, share-two and share-three
modes. Thus we first estimate traffic counts for each of these classes based on a
combination of observations and the initial multi-class model assignments. All of the
intersection counts and the road segment counts are entered into the Emme for
purposes of the count balance. Then v/c ratios and the turning movement volumes
were all reviewed. These counts serve a very important role in the quality of this
model. A set of Emme macros has been developed to read and output these counts
and perform the subarea network extractions and conversion of the OD demands
based on the larger TAZs into a more detailed and smaller TAZs for the subarea
model. In addition, special generators are developed for cinemas and schools and
their trips are based on the ITE trip rates. One master network is developed, which
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 168
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can be used to generate networks of existing and future years.

This process enhances the quality of the model at Stage P0~P2 (called
“before ODME” results) even before actual results at Stage P0~P3 (“after ODME”)
are presented. Thus it is important to note that the P0 ODME process was used not
just to estimate the multi-class OD vehicle demands that would match the traffic
counts in this model calibration process, but to provide additional model information
and model results.
Table 1 shows the model calibration criteria based on the modeling
guidelines (FHWA, 2001, and Havey, 1993). The P0~P3 (“after ODME”) results are
direct results of the ODME optimization process. The OD demands and the link
volumes of Stages P0~P2 and P0~P3 (before and after the ODME optimization
process) are provided and reviewed. The model results of Stage P0~P2 (before the
ODME optimization process) seem reasonable and are within 10% of error. Similar
results are reported for four screen lines as well where only two out of 10 locations
do not meet the targets. This additional accuracy is necessary and shows an
important feature of this model development. Some locations with over- or
underestimated volumes are compared to the traffic counts, which does not
accurately represent actual traffic congestion. For example, the East Line was
overestimated by more than 25% for the p.m. period, while the ODME process
results are within 5%. Thus with the ODME process, the additional project trips will
tend to be assigned to this screen line, since the model link volumes of this model
are very close to the traffic counts, which are lower than the non-refined P0~P2
ODME (“before ODME” volumes). Without the ODME process, it would be much
less likely to assign these additional project trips to the congested screen line, since
the model link volumes were overestimated. Unreasonable changes in general
regarding the total trip attractions and productions are detected and the model is
recalibrated again.
CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, we reviewed and discussed the ODME process and proposed a
3-Stage ODME based modeling procedure for possible applications of this ODME
technology. The applications of this ODME process have been deployed in real
projects at the San Francisco Bay Area and many other regions as well. In the future,
a dynamic ODME process will be explored based on the time dependent of the
traffic counts to obtain the time-dependent OD demands for traffic operation
analysis. The process of using the original OD demands as a part of the objective
functions will be investigated further as well.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 169
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Table 1: Calibration Results in Stage P0~P2 (Top) and P0~P3 (Bottom).

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Jia Hao Wu would like to thank Chris Kinzel, Christopher Thenay, Gary
Kruger and Rich Heygood of TJKM (Pleasanton, USA) for many discussions on the
practices of this methodology when he was with TJKM Transportation Consultants.

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Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 171
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Evaluation of Regional Integrative Transportation System with Equity and

Efficiency1

Jing SHI2, Zhaozhang WU3

2.
PhD, PE, APEC E, Prof., Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua
University, 100084 Beijing, China, Tel & Fax: +86-10-62772300, E-mail:
jingshi@tsinghua.edu.cn
3.
M.E. Institute of Transportation Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing,
China, Tel: +86-10-62780893, Email: wzzlove933@sina.com

ABSTRACT
This paper aims at establishing a comprehensive evaluation method for
integrative transportation system which consists of kinds of transportation modes
with considering both equity and efficiency. Transportation has great impact on
regional social and economic development. In order to accelerate the development of
a region, the optimization of integrative transportation network is very important.
The first step is to evaluate transportation network objectively and correctively. Lots
of studies have been done on evaluation of transportation network of a single traffic
mode, while it consists of various transportation modes. Therefore, studies on
integrative transportation system become more and more necessary. In this paper,
various factors such as regional economical level, configuration of regional
transportation network, transportation demand, social-economic benefits, etc., are
taken into account to reflect efficiency of a transportation network. Additionally,
differences of these factors among areas, social groups, traffic modes and generations
could reflect equity. These criterions are weighted, and scores would be given to each
criterion. The weight of equity and efficiency will be obtained through questionnaire
according to the development state of a region. Then, the final score could be
obtained and the evaluating result can be achieved.

INTRODUCTION
Transportation systems have primary role on existence and development of
human society. Transportation and human activity, especially economic activity,
supply and impact each other. The founder of regional economy, Walter·Isard˄1960˅,
had pointed out that “In all creation and innovation of economic activity,
transportation has great and general impact on promoting economic activity and
transforming industrial distribution.” From the view of human history, transportation
as a location influence factor is closely associated with regional economy, and is the

1
Supported by National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, Grant
No.2007AA11Z202)
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main motivate of regional economy development.

We have used an improved Cobb—Douglas Production Function to describe
the relation between transportation and regional economy. The result showed that in
different regions of different level, transportation has different contribution on
economic development.
China has been in great developing state for long. Regional transferring of
people and goods are expanding. With growing the economic region, travel distance
is increasing. Simplex transportation mode cannot satisfy the increasing need of
transportation. So the integration of transportation system will greatly influence
people’s selection on whether to travel and choice of traffic modes. To accelerate the
development of a region, the optimization of integrative transportation system is
necessary. First, there must be a reasonable evaluation result for transportation
system. However, studies on evaluation of integrative transportation system are
lacked. The aim of this study is to fill up the gap in the field of evaluation on
integrative transportation system. At this moment, the most important traffic
infrastructures in China are railway and highway. So the main evaluation object in
this paper is transportation system consists of railway and highway.
For the past years in China, development has been the first task and people’s
attention always focus on efficiency. However, the development of economy brings
people’s attention on equity of human rights. Transportation as a basic requirement in
people’s life must satisfy all one’s needs and provide the same chance for every one
as much as possible. Also, as the transportation sustainable development and green
transportation were put forwarded, transportation development has reached a new
stage which is about transportation equity. On the base of previous studies on
transportation evaluation and transportation equity, authors worked on evaluation of
integrative transportation system considering both equity and efficiency.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Lots of researchers worked on transportation evaluation. Beimborn Edward A.
(1976) gave out a set of questions that can be used to define the evaluation process.
These questions considered such issues as the scope of the process, its interface with
other activities such as model development or plan design, the actual process of
evaluation, and the interpretation of evaluation results. Procedures are suggested for
eliminating criteria that are not relevant to a decision and for eliminating alternatives
that are clearly inferior. Such a process allows for a more careful examination of the
trade-offs among alternatives and the implications of the criteria used to measure
plan performance.
As to the evaluation of transportation network, several researchers have
announced the key point. In the framework presented by Sathisan Shashi K.(1998),
accessibility of urban networks to the transportation is great important. Accessibility
has been defined from the point of view of the network configuration and its
relationship to key factors influencing travel demand. Mandl Christoph E.’s (1980)
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considered the shortest distance and the shortest route from node x to node y, and the
waiting times for a vehicle, to evaluate a public transportation network.
Evaluation of transportation system is a complex issue because it relates to
many aspects and criterions used to describe characteristics of transportation system
which are numerous. Khan A.M. (2008) pointed out that sustainability of
transportation systems depends on three categories of factors, economic, social and
environmental. Therefore, evaluations of transportation system always adopt multi-
criterions method to satisfy the different need of society. In Khan A.M.’s study, the
sustainability criteria for evaluation are described, following by a description of the
utility-theoretic methodology which is well suited for the use of multi-criteria in
system evaluation. Joseph M. and Katz Grad (2004) applied the Analytic Network
Process (ANP) to evaluate transportation project as ANP allows feedback and
interdependence among various decision levels and criteria.
To build up evaluation system with multi-criteria, Analytic Hierarchy
Progress (AHP) method is also widely used as it can divide criterions hierarchically
and reasonably.
AHP was first put forwarded by American operational researcher, T. L. Saaty,
at 1970s. It is an effective decision-making method for composite object and multi-
criterions which is both qualitative and quantitative. AHP facilitates decision-making
by organizing perceptions, experiences, knowledge and judgments. These influence
the decision into a hierarchical framework with a goal, scenarios, criteria and
alternatives of choice. Now, it is widely used in project decision-makings and project
evaluations. Snehamay Khasnabis et al. (2002) applied two techniques: the Analytic
Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Goal Achievement Technique (GAT) for evaluation
of one of the five peer groups. They considered disagreement exists among experts
about the most effective way to measure transit performance and the degree to which
performance may be used as a basis for funding allocation. The writers, however,
recommended AHP as a better multi-criteria assessment tool because of its stronger
mathematical foundation, its ability to gauge consistency of judgments, and its
flexibility in the choice of ranges at the sub-criteria level. Haluk Gerecek et al. (2004)
used AHP method to evaluate three alternatives of rail transit network proposals in
Istanbul. They evaluated the rail transit networks in four aspects: financial criterion,
economic criterion, system planning criterion, and policy criterion. After the
evaluation, a combination rail transit network was under construction. Pak Pyong Sik
et al. (1987) evaluated three transportation systems which were proposed for one of
the newly planned towns in Kansai Cultural and Academic Research Complexes. A
comprehensive evaluation of these systems was successfully performed by applying
the AHP.
The determination of the evaluation criterions and its hierarchical structure is
the most important when AHP is used. This will influence the practicability of the
evaluation system and the facticity of the evaluation result directly. In this regard, the
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determination of the evaluation criterions must obey the following rules: the
evaluation criterions must be objective and credible; the evaluation criterions must be
comprehensive to reflect both advantage and disadvantage of the evaluation object;
the evaluation criterions must be non-iterant, as the iterant criterions will enlarge the
advantage or disadvantage of the evaluation object, and the criterions which have
correlation with others should be kicked out.
As to the transportation equity, Houston Russell W. (1998) pointed out that
the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century would be the most massive
transportation bill. Santos Bruno (2008) commented that traditional approach to the
road network design problem focuses on the optimization of network efficiency
under a given budget. This leads to the improvement of roads next to the largest
population centers, where travel demand is higher. Such results are not consistent
with sustainable development principles, since the dissimilarities between the
welfare of large and small centers will tend to increase. In his research, three equity
measures were selected and incorporated into an accessibility maximization road
network design model: accessibility to low-accessibility centers, the dispersion of
accessibility values across all centers (Gini coefficient), and the dispersion of
accessibility values across all centers and across centers in the same region (Theil
index). Ramjerdi Farideh (2006) applied an inequality measure to a given pair of
distributions of a variable (e.g., income and accessibility) that changes as the result
of a policy. He used a partial equilibrium model of transportation to calculate the
changes of income, accessibility, and the net benefit for different social groups.
Based on the studies above, we use AHP method to build an evaluation
system consisting of equity and efficiency.
BUILDING UP OF EVALUATION SYSTEM
The general goal of the evaluation, the highest hierarchy of the evaluation
framework, is the performance of integrative transportation system. For the next
hierarchy, the sub goal layer is consisted by efficiency and equity. The evaluation
criterions are determined by the following steps: firstly, all factors that may have
impacts will be listed; secondly, the iterant and useless criterions will be kicked out;
thirdly, the left ones are final criterions. The final evaluation systems will be
discussed below.
Evaluation of transportation system efficiency
The efficiency of integrative transportation system can be evaluated in three
aspects: economic; environmental; configuration. The efficiency evaluation system is
shown in Figure 1.
Economic evaluation contains: GDP growth rate, passenger turnover quantity,
freight turnover quantity, proportion of the tertiary industry, index of land-value, and
income level.
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GDP growth rate

Passenger turnover quantity

Economic Freight turnover quantity

Proportion of the tertiary industry

Index of land-value

Income level

Index of air pollution

Efficiency Environmental
Proportion of green lands

Density of highway

Density of railway

Rate of nodes connection

Configuration
Coefficient of non-beeline of
Transportation network

Proportion of road of different levels

Rate of circles formed of

Transportation network
Figure 1. Efficiency evaluation system of transportation system.
Environmental evaluation contains: index of air pollution and proportion of
green lands.
Configuration evaluation contains: density of highway and railway, rate of
nodes connection, coefficient of non-beeline of transportation network, proportion of
road of different levels, rate of circles of Transportation network.
GDP is a most direct index reflecting the economic level of a region.
However, the basic condition and the industrial structure are different among regions.
The absolute value of GDP is unilateral while the growth rate will reflect the
promotion of transportation to economy more clearly. Actually, green GDP may be
better as it excludes resource and environment cost. But, resource and environment
are not closed in a region and green GDP is hard to calculate from the view of both
conception and technique. In this case, Green GDP is not adopted.
In fact, employment will also be influenced greatly by transportation as the
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development of transportation will provide more direct and indirect employment

opportunities. However, the convenient transportation will accelerate the communion
of manpower inside and among regions. In Okun-law of economics, the change rate
of unemployment is associated with the growth rate of GDP, that is:
'E 1/ 2( 'G  'G*) (1)
Where E is the change rate of unemployment, G is practical GDP growth
rate, and G* is potential GDP growth rate. So the employment index is kicked out.
The passenger and freight turnover quantity will reflect the capability of
transportation network. Regions with well developed transportation network are
more attractive for people and the land value in these regions is usually higher than
others. Besides, more developed a region is, more activities of economy in the
region is, that would influence people’s income. For the above reasons, these are
chosen as economic criterions.
The biggest problem of transportation on environment is air pollution.
Emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, etc. to air will cause acid rain,
greenhouse effect and other problems which will cause bad effects on people’s life.
Green plants are helpful for environment pollution as they can absorb lots of harmful
substances and comfort people from the harassment of noise. Now, gardening is a
necessity in a regional programming progress. Thus, these two criterions, index of air
pollution and proportion of green land, are chosen to evaluate the efficiency of the
transportation network for environmental evaluation.
Regarding the configuration of transportation network, the main work is
evaluation of accessibility and reliability of the network. Transportation routes cross
each other and form transportation nodes at important areas in a region. The
connection of these nodes can represent the accessibility of the network. The length,
density and location of the transportation determine the accessibility and reliability of
the network in a certain extension. However, it should be noticed that the length of
double-track-railway will be considered doubled in calculation.
The rate of nodes connection is calculated as follows.
2¦ Cij
iz j (2)
C , i, j 1, 2, , n
n(n  1)
Cij 1 , if node i and node j are connected directly

Cij 0 , if node i and node j aren’t connected directly

In equation (2), n is the number of transportation nodes, and C is the rate of

node’s connection. It shows the percentage of node pairs which are connected
directly. The higher C is the more nodes are connected directly, and the more
convenience for people to travel from one area to another.
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The coefficient of non-beeline of transportation network is the ratio of the

true length of a route to the straight-line distance between two nodes. It will reflect
the tortuous degree of transportation network. The smaller the coefficient is the
shorter distance and travel time, and more people will choose that travel route.
However, higher density of highway doesn't necessarily leads to better transit
services. Different levels of highways have different capability and the lower level
ones will divide flow from the higher level ones. The proportion of highway of
different levels must be reasonable so that there won’t be congestion when traffic
change lines from higher level to lower level. In general, the total length of higher
level should shorter than the lower level. However, in many regions in China, this is
opposite for some financial or other reasons. This phenomenon needs to be improved
in future.
Rate of circles formed of Transportation network reflect the potential
development of network (MA Qingyuan, et al., 2006). Usually there are more route
circles in a perfect transportation network. More circles existing in transportation
network create more choices for people when travel. The higher rate provides more
possible transportation circles and subsequently serves better accessibility and
reliability in the transportation network. It is calculated as follows.
D ( n  e  q ) /(2e  5q ) (3)
In equation (3), D is the rate of circles, n is the number of nodes in
transportation network, e is the number of routes, and q is the number of
transportation network sub graph.
Evaluation of transportation system equity
The above are about the efficiency evaluation of transportation system.
Different from transportation efficiency, transportation equity focuses more on
people’s traffic rights. Travel is people’s basic needs for living, thus for personal
development, their traffic demands should be met and their traffic rights should be
satisfied. In this paper, transportation system equity will be evaluated in four aspects:
equity among different areas, different social groups, different traffic modes and lines,
and different generations. The evaluation system is as Figure 2.
Transportation equity evaluation among different areas contains: fractal
dimension of transportation network, differences of industrial structure, differences
of land-value, differences of transportation investment, and differences of greening.
Transportation equity evaluation among different social groups contains:
proportion of travel consumption to daily consumption, accessibility to public green,
and transportation safety.
Transportation equity evaluation among different traffic modes and lines
contains: non-equilibrium factor of passenger flow section, non-equilibrium factor of
freight flow section, contribution degree of road and railway to total traffic volume.
Transportation equity evaluation among different generations contains:
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occupied cultivated area compensation rate, and urbanization degree.

Fractal Dimension of transportation

network

Differences of industrial structure

Different Differences of land-value

Areas
Differences of transportation investment

Differences of greening

Proportion of travel consumption to

Different daily consumption
Social Groups
Accessibility to public green

Transportation safety
Equity

Non-equilibrium factor of passenger

flow section
Different
Traffic Modes Non-equilibrium factor of freight flow
and Lines section

Contribution degree of road and railway

to total traffic volume

Occupied cultivated area compensation

Different rate
Generations
Urbanization degree

Figure 2. Equity evaluation system of transportation system.

In a region, the densities of transportation network are not the same
everywhere. In this paper, we mainly talk about the equity among areas in one region.
How to arrange transportation lines, is equitable? The transportation network in the
centre of a region is usually denser. However, how much the density in the centre,
either economic centre or culture centre, should be higher? Thus, we use
Hausdorff-Becikovich dimension of a transportation network to describe trend of the
density changes from center to fringes of a region. This analysis can tell us whether it
is reasonable or equitable.
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Hausdorff-Becikovich dimension is a kind of fractal dimensions. In 1986,

Mandelbrot defined fractal that is part of a system is similar to the whole. On the
other words, when a part of a fractal system is enlarged, it is almost the same with
the original. Transportation network also has the character as part of a transportation
network which is similar to the whole. Fractal dimension is a measure to describe the
particular of a fractal system.
The Hausdorff-Becikovich dimension of a transportation network is obtained
as following. r is the gyration radius of a area whose centre is the centre of the region,
and L(r) is the transportation network length of the area. When r is changed, the
network length of the area will be changed. We get a serious of number pairs, (r,
L(r)), and then plot them on logarithmic coordinate paper. The slope of these spots,
DL, is the Hausdorff-Becikovich dimension of a transportation network. When DL<2,
the higher DL represents the slower one, that transportation network density
decreases from center to fringes. When DL=2, the transportation network density is
similar for the whole region. When DL>2, transportation network density increases
from center to around which is unreasonable. If it is too low, it means that
transportation lines are mainly centralized at the centre of a region, and the
distribution of transportation network is also unreasonable and far from equitable.
Industrial structure, land-value, transportation investment and greening are all
different among areas in a region. These all influence the traffic condition of an area
and the equity of transportation network. We can use the variances to reflect the
differences of these aspects. If the variances are big, the differences are big among
areas and it is not equitable for people of different areas.
Social groups are divided according to people’s income. Obviously, people of
higher income will choose faster and higher price of traffic modes for travel while
people of lower income will choose the opposite. So, the absolute consumption on
travel would not reflect the equity among different social groups effectively. Thus,
we choose a relative value which is proportion of travel consumption to daily
consumption. It is equitable if the relative value is same for each group.
Also, economic level determines the living condition and safety which are
both associated with transportation. The accessibility to public green is measured by
the distance between living area and the nearest public green. The transportation
safety is measured by mortality caused by traffic accident. There must be some
differences among different social groups as they enjoy different income, but the
differences should not be too big.
Non-equilibrium factor of passenger flow section and freight flow section
will reflect the utilization ratio of different traffic modes. If each line is utilized
effectively, passenger flow and freight flow are equilibrium, and then the
non-equilibrium factor should be lower. While high factors mean some of the
transportation lines are too crowded and others are spared. This will cause waste both
on time and resources. And this will bring inequity among different lines. In this
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regard, Non-equilibrium factor of road and railway are calculated to reflect the
equity.
Road and railway cooperate to complete passenger transport and freight. The
coordination between them is also an important content of equity. Thus, we calculate
contribution degree of road and railway as follows.
'Qi
Ji u100% (4)
Q
In equation (4), i refers to highway or railway. Qi is the increasing traffic
turnover quantity of traffic mode i, and Q is the total traffic turnover quantity.
Equity among different generations will be created from sustainable
development of transportation. The core is the development of posterity. We use
cultivated area occupied compensation and urbanization degree. Construction of new
transportation infrastructure needs land resource, and sometimes will occupies
cultivated areas. For sustainable development and grain problem, the occupied
cultivated areas should be compensated. The compensated and cultivated areas are
usually returned from other land uses. However, the cost of returning farmland is
very high. Occupied cultivated areas usually can’t be compensated whole percent.
The compensation rate can reflect the change of cultivated areas in our country and
available cultivated areas for each generation. Urbanization degree will be evaluated
by the percentage of non-farming people. This can reflect the development potential
of a region.
CONCLUSION
Based on the above analysis, we set up evaluation system for integrative
transportation system from the view of efficiency and equity. Then, the weight of
efficiency and equity will be determined according to the development state of the
region and the final evaluation result of transportation system will be obtained. The
weight of efficiency and equity can be obtained from questionnaire and the access
objects can be export.
The understanding of equity is different according to different people, and
each one wants to maximize his/her benefit. Hence, the equity that people can accept
is determined by the participation of public. And so is the evaluation result. With
society development, people will concern more about his right and more people will
be involved into evaluation progress.
The cooperation among different traffic modes must be considered in
evaluating integrative transportation system, and the favorable cooperation will
provide more efficiency and equity for transportation system. In this paper,
contribution degree is used to reflect the cooperation of highway and railway.
As this paper is about integrative transportation system in an economic region,
it is more macroscopic and the evaluation left public transited out.
The evaluation result is serving for optimization of transportation system. The
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main work of optimization is to improve the aspects that are weakly evaluated.
REFERENCES
Beimborn, E. A. (1976) “Structured approach to the evaluation and comparison of
alternative transportation plans”[J]. Transportation Research Record, n 619,
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Haluk, G., Birsen, K., and Tulay, K. “A multiple criteria approach for the evaluation
of the rail transit networks in Istanbul”[J]. Transportation 31: 203-228, 2004
Houston, R. W. (1998). “Transportation equity act for the 21st century”[J]. ITE
Journal (Institute of Transportation Engineers), v 68, n 7, p 45-47, Jul.
Joseph, M., and Katz G. (2004). "A unified framework for multi-criteria evaluation of
transportation projects" [C]. IEEE Transactions on Engineering
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Khan A. M. (2008). “Sustainability criteria for the evaluation of urban transportation
systems”[C]. Canadian Society for Civil Engineering, v 4, p 2693-2702.
MA, Qingyuan, MA, Jinhui, and Zhang C. (2006) “A study on evaluating
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Pak, P. S., Tsuji, K., and Suzuki, Y. (1987) “Comprehensive evaluation of new urban
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Snehamay, K., Emadeddin A., Libo, L., and Richard, D. E. (2002) “Comparative
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Walter, I. "Region Analysis Method"[M]. 1960.
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A Contrastive Study on Sustainable Development of Maglev

and High-Speed Wheel-Rail 1

Chao WANG1 and Gang ZONG2

1
Post Doctorate, Assistant Researcher, Post-doctoral Mobile Research Centers,
Economics and management Dept. Beijing University of Technology100124;
Beijing Jiaotong University 100044; PH (086)13810004465; email:
bjdyjswc@163.com
2
Professor, PHD Director, Economics and Management Dept. of Beijing University
of Technology 100124; PH (086)13501360658

ABSTRACT
With the rapid development of China’s high-speed wheel-rail and the gradual
construction, testing and improvement of magnetic levitation (maglev), and the
sustainable development of fundamental installations have become the irresistible
trend of China’s transport construction. Compared to high-speed wheel-rail transit,
magnetic levitated train has the advantage in speed, especially in intercity high-
speed transportation. According to actual situation, this paper presents the
comparative studies on high-speed maglev and wheel-rail, using the concrete
parameter. The authors believe that high-speed maglev train has some competitive
advantages on the quantity of energy consumption per unit transportation, air
pollution, noise pollution, soil occupation, ecological impact and so on, those are in
accordance with China’s sustainable development conception. Therefore, promoting
the development of maglev is one of the most important measures to fulfill the
sustainable development requirement of China’s traffic.

1 INSTRUCTION
Based on sustainable development, scholars have launched some researches
on the contrast analysis of high-speed maglev and high-speed wheel-rail. Yan (2002)
considers that high-speed maglev train could overcome the main defects of
traditional wheel-rail. They are the only ground passenger vehicle which speed can
achieve about 500kph, and have prospecting development and un-substituted
superiority. He further explains the principal advantages of high-speed maglev
through introducing the basic principle, low resistance, low energy consumption,
low noise and small vibration. Chen (2003) asserts the cost of maglev system is
higher than high-speed wheel-rail by comparing the high-speed wheel-rail and the

1
The paper is sponsored by “the Position and Function of High-speed Magnetic Levitation Traffic
System in Transport system of China, Country “11th Five-Year Plan” to Support Science and
Technology Project (No 11506BZ006).
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German Transrapid maglev system. However, she also declares that the conclusion
can only be reached in the light of existed materials in Germany, so we should make
a concrete analysis based on different national conditions and transport demands.
Wu (2004) indicates that economic, energy-saving, high efficient system of high-
speed or quasi high-speed wheel-rail are chosen by European countries, Japan,
South Korea and other countries with small area, while other flexible and high speed
passenger transportation modes such as “Planes and Automobiles” is chosen by U.S,
Canada and others countries with large area. But the “Planes and Automobiles”
mode requires enormous energy and it is detrimental to environment. We need to
explore a ground transportation system with high speed, energy saving,
environmental protection and safety , which is suitable to China’s conditions and the
strategy of sustainable development. High-speed maglev as the modern transit
system with its sustainable development characteristic, it is getting more and more
attentions from people.
2 THE INNOVIONS OF HIGH-SPEED MAGLEV TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEM ON SPEED
In long distance travel, maglev train can attain the average speed of 400-
500kph. Owing to the characteristic, to a certain extent, maglev train can be used as
substitution of plane, traditional train, and speedway transportation. Proceeding from

the speed of 500-600kph, testing line is at least 30km. The entire length ( l ) should

be equal to the sum of expedite length( l1 ), decelerated length( l3 ), and high-speed

length( l2 ), namely, l = l1 + l2 + l3 . Then, if the acceleration is a , at the speed of v ,

the formulae can be concluded as follows.
1 1
l1 + l2 = at12 + at32
2 2
t1 = t3 = v a

t2 = (l - l2 - l3 ) v

t1 represents acceleration time, t3 represents

In the above formulas,

deceleration time, and t represents total running time, thus, t = t1 + t2 + t3 .

Given the overall length l = 30km , v = 500km h = 138.9m s , and the

acceleration a = 0.08 - 0.15 g = 0.785 - 1.472 m s ，the relevant data are showed as
2
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follows.(see Table 1)
Table 1. Speed advantage of high-speed maglev.
l km v (km h) a (m s 2 ) t1 = t3 s l1 = l3 km l2 km t2 s t s
0.785（0.08g） 176.9 12.28 5.43 39.1 393
30 500 0.981(0.1g) 141.6 9.83 10.3 74.02 357
1.472(0.15g) 94.4 6.55 16.9 121.7 310
The high-speed maglev train can exploit the advantage of speed for the
distance of more than 30km, and it works well in the distance of 400-1500 km.
Therefore, it is suitable in China, which has large area and great distance between
provinces or provincial capitals. (see Table 2)
Table2. Speed Comparison and Application of Different Traffic Modes.
Traffic Velocity Travel Suitable Applied Scope
Modes Area Speed Distance
（kph） （kph） (km)
Aviation 600—900 750 More than International Carriage
600—1500 of Person, Aviation
Hub, and Long-distance
Line
High- 200—500 430 400—1500 Urban Transportation
speed Hub and Urban Rapid
Maglev Transit
High- 80—300 180 120—800 Middle Distance Along
speed the Interval and Urban
Rail-wail Rapid Transit Hub
In addition, apart from the benefit of speed, the high-speed maglev train also
has following advantages: low resources consumption, ecological impact, and
environmental pollution; flexible route selection, small occupation area. Those are
all characteristics which make for sustainable development.

3 Comparative advantages of sustainable development between high-speed

maglev and high-speed wheel-rail
3.1 Occupation of soil resources
Soil is one of the most important environmental resources. Surface soil,
ground water and underground mineral would be affected by transportation
infrastructure facilities. Therefore, the lower we occupied the soil, the better for
sustainable development. The land occupation of maglev is less than that of high-
speed wheel-rail, meanwhile, because the maglev curve radius is smaller than which
of high-speed wheel-rail at the same speed(Given V=300km/h, the minimum radius
of curve equals to 4000-5000m, while the minimum radius of maglev system equals
to 1590m), as well as the longitudinal slope of maglev is bigger than which of
wheel-rail(the maximum longitudinal slop of wheel-rail equals to 4%, while the
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maximum longitudinal slop of maglev equals to 10% ). Therefore, as the

consequence of less soil occupation, maglev train adapts to various terrain and cut
down cutting-and-filling engineering. The following table compares that land for use
and the quantity of soil mineral of maglev and wheel-rail. It can be seen that wheel-
rail requires up to 50% and 25% higher quantity than maglev in general (see Table
3).
Table 3. Land for Use and Quantity of Soil Mineral of Maglev and
Wheel-rail (Based on an metrical length of 200km).
Maglev Wheel-rail
Indicators
Heavy Hilly Heavy Hilly
Plain Plain
Area Area
average
occupation of 23.2 24.4 26.2 43.5
land（m2/m）
Average cubic
meters of earth
11.8 42.0 77.1 184.6
or stone
（m3/m）

3.2 Ecological effect

Because maglev train has less land occupation, also the curve radius is
smaller than high-speed wheel-rail at the same speed, consequently the influences on
ecology system are less. Not only it can strength the protection of ecological
environment and land-clearing, but also the destruction of green vegetation that
covered railway, the location and barrier against animals, the loss of wild lives and
gene resources would be reduced too. Thereby it maximizes the improvement of the
natural eco-environment protection . In addition, maglev is useful to protect
landscape quality. “Effects of construction on environment” can be stated as the
following three aspects. First of all, it is inevitable to change topography and
features in the course of construction. What’s more, fragmentation of landscape is
liable to be made by construction segmentation. Furthermore, destruction of
vegetation is attended by exposed earth surface which would bring about landscape
degradation. If large land is occupied, the important landscape would be destructed,
including natural and man-made landscape.
3.3 The resource dissipation and the maintenance cost
The energy consumption per seat-km of maglev train is only 1/3-1/2
compared to planes, and is 30% less than automobile in the test speed of 500km/h.
The energy consumption per seat-km of German Transrapid TR is 33% less than
high-speed wheel-rail ICE, while they are equal at the speed of 300 kph. Of course,
almost all transports based on substantial consumption of energy. Approximately,
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transportation energy consumption in developed countries has made up 1/3 of

world’s total energy consumption. With the development of economy and people’s
living standard, China is facing a pressure from energy consumption. Especially
with the rapid expansion of city scale and urban function, intercity transportation
would be exacerbated. The studies show that maglev can save more energy
compared to high-speed wheel-rail. (see Table 4)
Table 4. Energy Consumption Per Unit of High-speed Light Rail and Maglev
System (IW.KPH/Seat).
High-speed Wheel-rail Maglev System
Running Speed
（ICE）Energy （TR）Energy
（KPH）
Consumption Consumption
200 41 33
250 57 37
300 74 45
400 63
From the primary energy consumption aspect, maglev has an advantage over
high-speed wheel-rail.(see Table 5)
Table 5. the Primary Energy Consumption of Various Traffic Modes
(IW.KPH/Seat).
Maximum
High-speed Wheel-
Traffic Mode Speed Maglev
rail
（KPH）
200 103 82
the Primary
250 142 92
Energy
300 184 112
Consumption
400 157
In addition, maglev train isn’t mechanistic-contacted with magnetic
levitation, so it doesn’t require a heavy ordinary maintenance as impact abrasiveness
like high-speed wheel-rail. The major maintainable part of maglev train is electrical
part. Due to the electronic industry is becoming more and more advanced, and the
reliability of electrical parts is enhanced too, its fault rate is rather low. Maglev is
demonstrated more redundancy in its design and modular fabrication and it provides
easy maintenance and replacement for its systems.
3.4 Noise Pollution
There is no wheel/rail machinery in the maglev system, so it scarcely
produces mechanical vibration when it’s running and the possibility of accidents
such as the train rear-collision and overturning is slim. As experts estimate,
mechanical noise is negligible during the maglev operation. The only noise is
generated from the friction between air and the bodywork, that is significantly
decreased to a certain extent compared with high-speed wheel-rail. When the
measurement position of maglev is located at 25m from the line, the noise generated
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by maglev and wheel-rail at different speeds is listed and compared in Table 6. It can
be seen that maglev produces much less noise than wheel-rail.
Table 6. Comparison of Noise Level Between Maglev and High-speed Wheel-
rail.
Move Speed（kph） High-speed Wheel-rail Maglev
100 72
160 79 70
200 83 73
250 88 78
300 91 83
400 91

4 CONCLISIONS
In summary, although the construction of the high-speed maglev train is
relatively high, and the compatibility can’t be achieved at present, maglev has
superiority over high-speed wheel-rail, from the aspect of sustainable development.
However, it doesn’t mean that maglev technology cannot go further in the
realm of resource and environment. Maglev system and its technology involve
significant work in energy saving and environment protecting in advanced countries.
We have reason to believe that with the fast development of technology innovation
and improvement of industrialization, maglev train would be an important part of
China’s comprehensive transportation system..

5 REFERENCES
Richard Thornton. “The Future of Maglev.” International Conference on Electrical
Machines and Systems 2007, Oct, 8~11, Seoul, Korea, 1950~1954
Wang Yuefan. “Selection of Urban Rail Transit Vehicles.” Urban Mass Transit.
2009,4(in Chinese)
Mo Fan. “Development and Innovation of High Speed Maglev Transportation.” Coal
Technology. 2008,11(in Chinese)
Weng Xiuling. “Compatibility and Complementary Property of Maglev
Transportation and Urban Mass Transit.” Urban Mass Transit. 2009,7(in
Chinese)
Rong-Jong Wai, Jeng-Dao Lee, “Adaptive Fuzzy-Neural-Network Control for
Maglev Transportation System.” IEEE Transportations on Neural
Networks, Vol,19,No.1, January 2008,54~70
Yan Luguang. “High Speed Magnetic Levitation Train And Its Strategic Importance
For Future Passenger Transportation In China.” Advanced Technology Of
Electrical Engineering And Energy.1999（4）(in Chinese)
Yan Lu guang; Xu Shangang; Sun Guangsheng; Dai Yinming; Zhang Ruihua; Wu
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 188
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Ying. “Strategic Progress Of High-Speed Maglev And The Development

Strategy In China.” Advanced Technology Of Electrical Engineering And
Energy. 2002,4 (in Chinese)
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Spatio-Temporal Analysis for Improving Constructability of Transportation

Projects
Yuanbin SONG , David K.H. CHUA2 and Hao HU3
1

1
State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Ocean and Civil Engineering,
Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China, 200030; PH 86-21-6293-3091;
email: ybsong@sjtu.edu.cn
2
Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore,
117576; PH 65-6516-2195; email: cvedavid@nus.edu.sg
3
State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Ocean and Civil Engineering,
Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China, 200030; PH 86-21-6293-3091;
email: hhu@sjtu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
The construction requirements of a transportation project can be modeled and
then evaluated for improving its constructability. The intermediate function concept
has been developed for semantically representing construction requirements from the
function perspective. This study develops the concept of spatio-temporal interaction
matrix to capture the time-dependent spatial interaction between the user and the
provider of an intermediate function, and meanwhile introduces another concept,
spatio-temporal criterion matrix, for detecting unavailable spatial interaction required
for supporting construction processes. Furthermore, this study also indicates that
some non-collision conflicts residing in construction schedules can be identified
using the detection method developed. The analysis result can aid planning engineers
in identifying and resolving constructability problems. In addition, a simple case of
supporting platform is used to demonstrate and validate the new concepts and the
detection method.

INTRODUCTION
A large part of infrastructure investment has been used for constructing
transportation facilities. Therefore, the constructability of transportation projects
should be carefully evaluated, especially in their early development stages.
Unfortunately, many constructability problems are still experienced during the
construction phase. A large quantity of investment has been wasted due to receptive
problems arising from poor constructability, which also frequently resulted in
delayed project delivery and unsatisfied quality.
Some studies indicated that the lack and delay of constructability review
information was a major barrier to achieve high constructability (CII, 1993). A
number of tools have been developed for improving the exchange of review
information as well as constructability knowledge. A major concern of
constructability reviews is to evaluate the fulfillment of construction requirements.
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Construction requirements herein are capabilities and conditions to which both

construction processes and in-progress facility products must conform. Otherwise,
the construction processes cannot be supported or the temporary stability of the
in-progress structure may not be sustained during construction.
Some research indicated that constructability could be improved by applying
a number of constructability improvement programs (Russell et. al., 1994). These
programs commonly focus on managing various communication channels and
interfaces in order to better exchange the construction requirements inside the
organizations and then to incorporate them into the project designs and schedules.
Specifically, the timely exchange of construction requirements between the
workflow of constructability review and the workflow of project development should
be regarded as one of the crucial factors for a successful constructability
improvement program (Anderson et al. 2000). Furthermore, timely acquisition and
evaluation of construction requirements necessitate semantic representation of
construction requirements. Such a semantic model can greatly facilitate formal
representation and automatic evaluation of construction requirements. This can
prevent the misfortune that some constructability improvement ideas are identified or
communicated too late to be applied.
Similar to software requirements, construction requirements can be classified
into functional requirements and non-functional requirements. Functional
requirement often defines the functionalities required by in-progress facility products
and construction processes, while non-functional requirement mainly indicates the
availability and performance capacity of construction resources. The functional
requirements can be further divided into two subcategories: transformation functions
and intermediate functions. Transformation function describes different types of
operational functionalities required for transforming the material compositions,
shapes, and locations of product components or resource components, while
intermediate function represents various kinds of functionalities provisionally
required for supporting the construction performers and for maintaining the
temporary stability of an in-progress structure. In this way, the concept of
intermediate function can be used to represent a class of functional construction
requirements, and moreover an intermediate function can be modeled from both its
user and provider perspectives. (Song and Chua 2006).
The present study focuses on analyzing intermediate functions by evaluating
whether the function user can access the function provider when the intermediate
functionality is required. Such function accessibility can be evaluated with respect to
the time-dependent spatial (or spatio-temporal) relationships between the user and
the provider. The evaluation results may help designers and constructors identify
inaccessible intermediate functions and then resolve those constructability problems
through changing facility design or adjusting construction schedules.
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SEMANTIC MODEL OF INTERMEDIATE FUNCTION

A semantic model provides the constructors and designers an explicit
description of an intermediate function so that they can have a common vehicle to
communicate their construction intentions. Figure 1 illustrates the semantic
representation model of an intermediate function comprising five layers: description
perspective, constituent component, component state, state attribute, and attribute
relationship (Song, 2006).

Figure 1. Structure of semantic representation model.

Following the five-layer structure illustrated in Figure 1, either a function
user or a function provider in the first layer can be further decomposed into the
temporal and spatial attributes of component states in the fourth layer. The
interaction between the user and the provider can then be assessed from both
temporal and spatial perspectives. In particular, the spatial interaction is not only
determined by the topological relationships between the user components and the
provider components, but it is also restricted by the co-existence of the associated
components. Therefore, the evaluation of the spatial interaction in Figure 1 is
actually a spatio-temporal analysis.
EVALUATION OF SPATIAL REQUIREMENTS FOR CONSTRUCTION
SCHEDULES
Evaluating the fulfillment of spatial requirements in a construction schedule
has been an important concern for many researchers. The spatial requirement issue
have been studied mainly in four trends: site layout (Zouein and Tommelein, 1999;
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Yeh, 1995), workspace planning (Thabet and Beliveau, 1994; Riley and Sanvido,
1997), 4D simulation (Koo and Fischer, 2000), and time-space conflict (Akinci et al.,
2002; Guo, 2002). However, the evaluation methodologies developed in many
previous works cannot be used to fully evaluate the spatial interaction between the
user and the provider of an intermediate function. Based on the concepts of temporal
space entity and temporal topological relationship proposed by Song and Chua
(2005), this study develops another two concepts, namely spatio-temporal interaction
matrix and spatio-temporal criterion matrix, and then presents the method for
detecting unavailable spatial interaction between the function user and the function
provider.
TEMPORAL SPACE ENTITY
A 3D model modeling space utilization itself does not contain any temporal
information to depict when a space is utilized/occupied or released. In such a
time-independent space model, the topological relationships between the associated
space entities are also irrelevant of time. These time-independent space entities and
topological relationships alone cannot be adopted to evaluate the time-dependent
spatial interaction between the user and the provider. Therefore, temporal space
entity and temporal topological relationship will be used to describe the spatial
interaction between the function user and the function provider.
A temporal space entity describes both geometric characteristic and existence
period of a space entity. The geometric characteristic attribute describes such spatial
information as shape and location of an in-progress component along its construction
lifecycle, while the existence period attribute describes a time-window during which
the in-progress component has the shape and stays in the location as the associated
geometric characteristic depicts. For example, when a road has been backfilled, its
shape is different from when it has been excavated. So the shape of the backfilled
road is different from the shape of the excavated road, and these two shapes have
different existence periods.
Since a space entity may be referenced by several discontinuous states of a
facility component its existence period can contain several discontinuous intervals.
For example, the “Backfilled” state of a road component can reference the same
shape entity “SHAPE” as its “Original” (unexcavated) state. This means that the
space entity “SHAPE” is referenced by two states, which are separated by the
“Excavated” state of the road component. The volume of the road in its “Excavated”
state is smaller than that in its “Backfilled” or unexcavated state. Mathematically, the
existence period of an arbitrary temporal space entity “TSEm” can be derived by a
Boolean union of the duration intervals of the associated requirement/functional
states (or state phases) that reference “TSEm” as their state spaces, as follows:
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EP(TSE m ) = U (I (C i .S j ))
i, j

" Ci.Sj. Î RSP(F) or Ci.Sj Î FSP(F),

" AssociatedWith(TSEm, Ci.Sj) (1)
Where TSMm is an arbitrary temporal space entity associated with intermediate
function F, Ci.Sj the Sj state of the Ci component, I(Ci.Sj) the duration interval of Ci.Sj.
Ci.Sj Î RSP(F) indicates the component state Ci.Sj is a requirement state of the
intermediate function F, while Ci.Sj Î FSP(F) is a functional state of the intermediate
function F. AssociatedWith(TSEm, Ci.Sj) indicates that the component state Ci.Sj is
associated with the temporal space entity TSEm.
Eq. (1) indicates that the existence period of the temporal space entity TSEm
is Boolean union of all the user/provider component states (or state phases) that
reference TSEm as their state spaces. Since the duration intervals of these associated
states may not be continuous, the resultant existence period may be a discontinuous
time-window containing several intervals.
TSE1

TSE2

TSE3

TSE4

TSE5

Figure 2. Semantic model of temporary support function.

Figure 2 illustrates a simple case of temporary support function, showing its
semantic model. Specifically, two platforms “PC1” and “PC2” are erected on the
ground earth “EC3” whose shape is described by “TSE5”, and these three provider
components function together to realize the temporary support, while three user
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components, namely labor “RC1”, “RC2”, and “RC3”, requires the temporary
support for executing their construction works.
According to the construction plan, “PC1” is erected in two steps which are
respectively represented by its states “PC1.S1” and “PC1.S2”. The lower part
“TSE1” of “PC1” is first erected during “PC1.S1”, and then its upper part “TSE2” is
erected on the top of “TSE1” during “PC1.S2”. Likewise, “PC2” is also erected in
two steps. Its left part “TSE3” is first erected adjacent to “TSE2” during “PC2.S1”,
and then the right part “TSE4” is horizontally expended.
Accordingly, there are a total of five space entities (“TSE1” to “TSE5”)
associated with three provider components (platforms “PC1” and “PC2” and earth
component “EC3”) via five functional states (“PC1.S1.Q”, “PC1.S2.Q”, “PC2.S1.Q”,
“PC2.S2.Q”, and “EC3.S1”) (Figure 2). Meanwhile, there are a total of three space
entities (“TSE11”, “TSE12”, and “TSE13”) associated with three user components
(labor “RC1”, “RC2”, and “RC3”) via four requirement states (“RC1.S1.A”,
“RC2.S1.A”, “RC3.S1.A”, and “RC3.S2.A”).
The user component “RC3” (labor) executes two construction
activities(active state phases “RC3.S1.A” and “RC3.S2.A”) in the same workspace
described by “TSE13”, so “RC3” has two requirement states referencing the same
temporal space entity “TSE13”. Therefore, the existence period of “TSE13” can be
derived as follows:
EP(TSE13) = I(RC3.S1.A) È I(RC3.S2.A) = I(15, 16) È I(18, 20)
The resultant discontinuous window contains two temporal intervals during which
the “RC3” labor requires the temporary support functionality for executing the
construction processes represented by “RC3.S1.A” and “RC3.S2.A”. Likewise, the
existence periods of the other seven temporal space entities referenced by the user or
the provider in Figure 2 can be similarly derived.
TEMPORAL TOPOLOGICAL RELATIONSHIP
The temporal topological relationship between two temporal space entities
represents the spatio-temporal relationships between user components and provider
components. A temporal topological relationship has two attributes: (binary)
topological relationship and existence period. The former denotes the
time-independent binary topological relationship (like disjoint, meet, and intersect)
between the geometric boundaries of the two associated temporal space entities,
while the latter indicates the time-window during which both associated temporal
space entities co-exist to ensure the existence of the spatial relationship between
them. Accordingly, the present study defines three categories of temporal topological
relationships: temporal disjoint, temporal meet, and temporal intersect.
Mathematically, the existence period of a temporal topological relationship
can be derived by Boolean intersection between the existence periods of two
associated temporal space entities, given by:
EP(TTR(TSEx, TSEy)) = EP(TSEx) Ç EP(TSEy) (2)
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Where TSEx and TSEy are two arbitrary temporal space entities, and EP(TSEx) and
EP(TSEy) are the existence periods of TSEx and TSEy, respectively. Since the
existence periods of each associated space entity (like “TSEx” or “TSEy”) may be
discontinuous, the existence period of the resultant temporal topological relationship
(like “TTR(TSEx, TSEy)”) may also be discontinuous.
For instance, the existence period of the temporal topological “TTR(TSE13,
TSE3)”, which represents the spatio-temporal relationship between the user space
entity “TSE13”and the provider space entity “TSE3” in Figure 2, can be derived as
follows:
EP(TTR(TSE13, TSE3))
= EP(TSE13) Ç EP(TSE3)
= (I(15, 16) È I(18, 20)) Ç (I(12, 13) È I(15, 22))
= I(15, 16) È I(18, 20)
Incidentally, this discontinuous existence period is equal to the existence period of
the associated user space entity “TSE13” (See Figure 2). This means that when labor
“RC3” requires the temporary support (during I(15,16) and I(18,20)) from the
platform “PC2”, the former can “Meet” the latter.
SPATIO-TEMPORAL INTERACTION MATRIX
A spatio-temporal interaction matrix of an intermediate function depicts the
spatial interaction between the user and the provider of an intermediate function.
Each element in the interaction matrix represents a temporal topological relationship
between a pair of temporal space entities associated with the user and the provider,
respectively. In such a matrix, the temporal space entity at each row is associated
with the user, while the temporal space entity at each column with the provider.

Figure 3. Spatio-temporal interaction matrix.

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Following the case depicted in Figure 2, Figure 3 illustrates a 3*5

spatio-temporal interaction matrix representing the fifteen temporal topological
relationships between 3 user space entities and 5 provider space entities. For instance,
the element at the third row and the third column depicts the temporal topological
relationship between the temporal space entities “TSE13” and “TSE3”. In this way,
the spatial interaction between the function user and the corresponding provider can
be described by the spatio-temporal interaction matrix.
SPATIO-TEMPORAL CRITERION MATRIX
The spatio-temporal criterion matrix defines the spatio-temporal relationships
that are necessary conditions for the user to access the provider for utilizing the
intermediate function. Thus, the size of a spatio-temporal criterion matrix should be
equal to that of the corresponding spatio-temporal interaction matrix. Moreover, the
sequences of space entities in the row and the column are also the same as the
corresponding spatio-temporal interaction matrix. In this way, each element in the
spatio-temporal interaction matrix can be evaluated against the criterion element at
the same row and column in the spatio-temporal criterion matrix.
There are two types of spatio-temporal conditions in a criterion matrix. The
first is the “interaction” condition, while the second is the “non-collision” condition.
The “interaction” condition is necessary for realizing the required spatial interaction
between the user and the provider of an intermediate function. Such a necessary
condition defines how and when the user components should spatially interact with
the provider components with respect to the required type(s) of temporal topological
relationship and the required range(s) for its existence period.
In the context of evaluating temporary support functionality, a matrix element
only permits a temporal “meet” relationship, and its existence period should be equal
to the existence period of the associated user space entity, indicating that the
associated user component can temporally access the associated provider component
whenever the user component requires the temporary support. The “interaction”
condition for a temporary support function is denoted by “M, =EP(USE)”, where
“M” denotes that the spatio-temporal relationships between the user and provider
space entities should be temporal meet and “=EP(USE)” denotes that the existence
period of the corresponding temporal topological relationships should be equal to the
existence period of the associated user space entity.
On the other hand, the “non-collision” condition defines that temporal
topological relationship that the user space entity and the corresponding provider
space entity does not collide with each other. A “non-collision” condition for a
temporary support function does not permit a temporal intersection relationship with
non-zero existence period, which would indicate a temporal collision between the
associated user space entity and the associated provider space entity. This condition
is therefore denoted by “(I, null)”.Meanwhile, a temporal disjoint relationship or a
temporal meet relationship with any existence period is permitted for a
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“non-collision” condition since they do not cause any spatial conflict. These two
criteria are denoted by “(D, ~)” and “(M, ~)”, respectively.

Figure 4. Spatio-temporal criterion matrix.

Figure 4 shows a 3*5 spatio-temporal criterion matrix corresponding to the
spatio-temporal interaction matrix illustrated in Figure 3. For instance, the temporal
topological relationship TTR(TSE13, TSE3) at the third row and the third column in
interaction matrix shown in Figure 3 can evaluated against the criterion defined in
the third row and the third column in the criterion matrix illustrated in Figure 4.
Figure 4 shows that a total of six elements in the spatio-temporal criterion
matrix are assigned the “interaction” condition, depicting the necessary conditions to
realize the spatial interaction between “User_1” and “Provider_1” depicted in Figure
2. Herein, C(TTR(TSEu, TSEp)) denotes the condition for the temporal topological
relationship between the user space entity TSEu and the provider space entity TSEp.
Specifically, with respect to “TSE11”, three criteria “C(TTR(TSE11, TSE1))”,
“C(TTR(TSE11, TSE3))”, and “C(TTR(TSE11, TSE4))” denotes that the workspace
of the labor “RC1” (“TSE11”) should “meet” the lower part of the platform “PC1”
(“TSE1”) and the horizontally expanded “PC2” (“TSE3”, and “TSE4”) for accessing
the temporary support. Similarly, “C(TTR(TSE12, TSE2))” defines that the work
space “TSE12” of “RC2” should meet the elevated part of the platform “PC1”
(represented by “TSE2”).
Figure 4 also illustrates that a total of nine elements have assigned the
“non-collision” condition. Specifically, “C(TTR(TSE11, TSE2))” indicates that the
labor “RC1” (whose workspace is “TSE11”) does not require but should avoid
temporal collision with the elevated part (physical space “TSE2”) of the platform
“PC1”. Moreover, “C(TTR(TSE13, TSE2))” means that the “RC2” in its workspace
“TSE13” does not require the temporary support from the lower part(“TSE2”) of the
platform “PC1” as long as these “TSE13” and “TSE2” do not collide with each other.
The section view in Figure 2 shows that the user space entity “TSE13” (the
workspace of “RC3”) actually meet “TSE2” (physical space of the elevated part of
“PC1”) on their vertical sides.
DETECTION OF UNAVAILABLE SPATIAL INTERACTION
An unfulfilled construction requirement can be detected by evaluating the
spatio-temporal interaction matrix against the corresponding spatio-temporal
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criterion matrix. If any temporal topological relationship in the interaction matrix

cannot satisfy the criterion specified in the spatio-temporal criterion matrix, an
undesirable temporal topological relationship is detected, implying unavailable or
unexpected spatial interaction. An undesirable temporal topological relationship can
arise from either prohibited types of spatio-temporal relationship occurs or its
existence period cannot satisfy the range defined in the spatio-temporal criterion
matrix.

Figure 5. Evaluating interaction matrix against criterion matrix.

Figure 5 illustrates the evaluation of the spatio-temporal interaction matrix
shown in Figure 3 against the spatio-temporal criterion matrix defined in Figure 4.
This evaluation detects one undesirable temporal topological relationship
TTR(TSE11, TSE4) at the first row and the fourth column of the spatio-temporal
interaction matrix since its existence period is null instead of being equal to the
existence period of the corresponding user space entity “TSE11”. So the interaction
criterion “M = EP(USE)” for TTR(TSE11, TSE4) is violated. This means that labor
“RC1” cannot access the horizontally expanded part of platform “PC2” on Days 12
and 13. Additionally, Figure 5 shows that although “TSE11” intersects with “TSE2”,
but the existence period of this temporal intersection relationship is “null”. Therefore,
this will not result in physical collision between “TSE11” and “TSE2”.
CONCLUSIONS
The lack and delay of constructability review information is a major reason
for poor constructability of many transportation projects. Semantic representation of
intermediate functions can formally record and communicate construction
requirements among trades. This study develops the concepts and evaluation method
for identifying the unavailable/unexpected spatial interaction between the function
user and the function provider. Moreover, but the evaluation result also indicates the
undesirable t spatial interaction in terms of undesirable temporal topological types
and improper existence periods. The non-collision analysis used in this research, like
unavailable meeting, also expands the spectrum of spatio-temporal analysis for
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construction schedule. Finally, the developed concepts and evaluation method are
demonstrated by and validated against a simple case study of supporting platform.
The evaluation results can aid planning engineers in changing designs and adjusting
construction programs for resolving the unfulfilled construction requirements.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors acknowledge the financial support from the State Key
Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, under the independent research project (No.
GKZD010804), for the registration and publication of this paper.

REFERENCES
Akinci, B., Fischer, M., Levitt, R., and Carlson, R. (2002) “Formalization and
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A Study of Transportation Planning Adjacent to High-Speed Railway Station

Case Study: Huhang - Songjiang High-Speed Railway Station

Guixiu SHEN1 and Chaoyang LI2

1
Department of Architecture, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil
Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. No. 800 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai,
P.C. 200240; email: elaine_shen@foxmail.com
2
Department of Architecture, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil
Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. No. 800 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai,
P.C. 200240; email: cyljjf@tom.com

ABSTRACT
In respect to the solving of large-scale population mobility status we need a
high-speed railway mode of transportation that is reliable, safe, efficient, economical,
and environmentally friendly. At present, the pace for China’s high-speed railway
construction is accelerating. The construction of high-speed railway will not only
bring about a new leap in China’s economic development, but also will lead to the
whole transportation system to be faced with new changes and reorganization.
Therefore, there is a need for new missions for the transportation planning, such as
the linking between high-speed railways and other transport facilities. In addition,
the construction of low-carbon, efficient and intensive transportation system are of
mandatory. The paper presents the ideas and methods of the new-aged planning of
transport facilities adjacent to the high-speed railway stations taking transportation
planning of the South Songjiang New Town as a case study. The analysis provides
reference for the planning and construction of high-speed railways in China and any
other party of the world.

1. INTRODUCTION
At present, China’s social economy is entering a period of rapid development
and both its population and cargo have presented an unprecedented large-scale
mobility. The existing transportation system is restricted by a "bottleneck" which
may be bailed-out by the high-speed railway mode of transportation that is reliable,
safest, efficient, economical, and environmentally friendly. In January 2004, the
State Council examined and approved, for the first time in China’s railway history,
the "Long-term Railway Network Plan" in which the 2020 railway construction
blueprint was ascertained. On February 26, 2009, the construction of Shanghai-
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Hangzhou High-speed Railway was officially started from Fengjing to Shanghai.

For Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Railway, there are a total of five stations
established, including Songjiang, Fengjing, Jiaxing, Tongxiang and Yuhang. The
implementation of the Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Railway would undoubtedly
inject new vitality into Shanghai's transportation system. To achieve the linking
between Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Railway and other transportation facilities
is the key to the successful implementation of the project. Therefore, a challenge is
to achieve an orderly planning of the peripheral transportation facilities with
reference to the stations of Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Railway line.
The South Songjiang Station is a site located in Shanghai's Songjiang
District along the Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Railway line, which will be the
second class transportation hub of Shanghai. This is the important node linking
Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Railway and other transport facilities. Furthermore,
it is the key for the realization of convenient and efficient flow and distribution of
population and logistics. The station is an important support for the economic
development of Shanghai and Hangzhou. Since Chinese high-speed railway
construction is in full swing, it is expected that the present analysis of the methods
and ideas for the overall transportation planning of South Songjiang, New Town of
Shanghai, may provide reference for the planning and construction of other high-
speed railways in China and in other countries.

2. TRANSPORTATION PLANNING OF SOUTH SONGJIANG NEW TOWN

2.1 Profile
Songjiang New Town clutches the middle and upper reaches of the Huangpu
River, which is the only way that connects Yangtze River, the Hangjiahu Lake, and
the southwest Shanghai gateway to Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. Its
comprehensive economic strength keeps Songjiang New Town in the front rank
among the suburbs of Shanghai. The south Songjiang New Town will become a
comprehensive newly developed urban district in the future. This will be as s result
of modern service industry accumulation zone centering on the South Songjiang of
High-speed Railway Station, the development of eastern industrial zone and
residential areas, logistics Park based on the old township of Litahui, and living
resort developed along the Huangpu River. In such a newly developed urban district,
there will be planning and construction of a series of major transportation facilities
such as national, provincial, and municipal high-speed rails, intercity high-speed
rails, common rails, highway, the city's major arterial roads, and the water
transportation networks along Huangpu River. All of these will not only bring the
pre-emptive and accumulation effects to the economic development of the said
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southern newly developed district, but also will strengthen the economic ties and
development relationship between Shanghai and Hangzhou.

Figure 1. Functional Structure Chart for Songjiang District.

2.2 Transportation Status Analysis and Evaluation

1) Convenient Planning District Provided with Outbound Facilities and
Obvious Advantages Provided by Transportation Location
The planning district is close to four highways; in the east and west there are
highway A8 and highway A15, which are under construction, and in the north and
south there are highway A30 and highway A5. It takes only less than 10 minutes by
vehicles to get onto the highways. Highway A15 stretches straightly to the Pudong
International Airport while the Zhongchun Road and Huaxiang Road, which are
under construction at the east side of the planning district, stretches straight to the
Hongqiao Airport. Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Railway is the national
transportation aorta along which the Songjiang Station is an important location. In
addition, since the Shanghai-Hangzhou Express Railway is now under construction,
the said high-speed railway will serve as catalyst to facilitate the improvement of
regional accessibility of the planning district. Furthermore, the Jinshan Railway
extension is an important part of Pudong Railway in the future. Also, the location of
the planning district is by the middle and upper reaches of the Huangpu River which
is originated from the Taihu Lake, whose total length is 114 kilometers flowing into
the Yangtze River aside Wusongkou through Shanghai.

2) Miscellaneous Types of Vehicles in the Planning District and Unevenly

Spatial Distributed of Traffic Volume.
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There is heavy traffic and volume distribution at the transit highway and
linking roads in the planning district especially those old two-lane roads of
Songzheng, Songhui, and Beisong to the west-east side, and the Songjing and
Cheting to the north-south. However, there is quite less traffic volume distribution at
the roads passing into towns and small villages of the planning district, which are
provided with median and fair road landscape. The planning district roads traffic
flow presents a complex composition of a large volume of freight traffic and non-
motorized vehicles due to lack of strict traffic control.

2.3 Transportation Development Tendency Analysis

1) Estimates of resident population and employment:
According to the traffic survey data of Shanghai and neighboring cities as
well as the scale of used land for the planning district, it is estimated that the
planning district has a population of about 0.4 million people and the number of jobs
about 0.32 million posts.

2) Total in-and-out passenger trips:

According to the national experience, a newly developed city is difficult to
achieve the absolute balance for population and jobs and it is quite often that the
beginning of the newly developed city is featured by high dependency on the
estimations from the existing town condition.
There would be a period of progress towards the development of the
planning district, but five (5) to ten (10) years later upon the development, it is
anticipated to develop. So, it is suggested that the total cross-travel volume for the
planning district to be estimated subject to 40% of the total cross-travel volume.
Based on the resident population, it is estimated that the total travel volume
of peak hours would be 0.2 million (person-time). With reference to job posts, it is
estimated that the total peak hour flow would attract 0.208 million (person-time).
Then, the volume of people from the planning district in the morning peak
hours would be 80 thousand (person-time) while that into the planning district would
be 88 thousand (person-time). Therefore, the total cross-travel volume for the
planning district in peak hours should be calculated based on the volume taking the
volume into the planning district as the prevailing.

3) Total in-and-out vehicle trips

For the experience in accordance with domestic cities, once the private cars
have widespread, there would be restriction on the use of cars. So, the passenger
flow volume is converted into car volume, whose conversion factor is 0.12 to 0.15.
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Then, the total vehicle volume is 10 to 13 thousand in the morning peak hours for
the vehicles within a planning district and those entry-way vehicles. When the
average per-lane traffic capacity is approaching hourly standard of 800 cars, the
planning district can be satisfied by the total number of 13 to 17 newly developed
one-way motor-vehicle roads.
Analyzing the directions of vehicles from and to the mainstream is involved
in the directions of the central city of Shanghai and Songjiang New Town.

4) Predetermination of the development of private cars

If we take 3 people per household, the whole planning district provides a
living residential of about 133,000 families. It is suggested that the future
development level of cars to be 0.8 per household. With these assumptions the entire
planning district will maintain a figure of about 100.7 thousand private cars. The
development level will be about 260 private cars per thousand of people that is
figure close to the mid-level of the cars development in developed world.

2.4 Transport Development Strategies

2.4.1 Patterns of Transport Development
Through comparative analysis and research, it is finally decided to adopt the
development of the following patterns: (1) striving to promote the development of
rail transit and conventional public transit, (2) striving to advocate walking and
cycling, and (3) actively guiding the use of private cars.

2.4.2 Transport Development Goals

Development Goals: Relying on rapid transit traffic and developing
conventional public transit; Advocating green traffic and realizing transport energy-
saving and emission-reduction; Intensively using land and integrating transportation
hubs; Building harmonious transportation to meet the travel choices; Strengthening
hub linking to realize orderly internal and external traffic; Reserving traffic sites to
meet the economic development; Broadening bottlenecks to improve the road
network system.

2.4.3 Transport Development Strategies

1) Completing the external transport system that fully integrates the Yangtze
River Delta;
2) Completing the linking system that is convenient for external and internal
transportation for the planning district;
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3) Completing the rail transit system that provides satisfactory external links;
4) Completing a perfect, systematic, and highly independent road network
system of the planning district;
5) Completing a convenient and comfortable bus system;
6) Completing a modern traffic management and command-control system;
7) Completing a smooth flow system for freight transportation.

2.5 Songjiang Intercity Station of Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Rail

2.5.1 Case for Reference - Hong Kong Kowloon-Canton Railway Station
Hong Kong's Kowloon-Canton Railway Station, the Hung Hom Station of
Hong Kong East Rail Transit is the station integrating into one Hong Kong intercity
track, long-distance rail (such as Shanghai to Kowloon), logistics, regular buses,
taxis, parking, and other functions. The station is surrounded by the Hong Kong
Coliseum, luxury buildings setting in a commercial complex containing hotels,
residential space, office facilities, as well as the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
The size of Hong Kong Station is not large, but very efficient in its space
utilization. Long-distance railway and rail transit use the same ticket gate and ticket
booking office. There is no need to have ticket to access the Railway Station;
however ticket is required to enter the platform of the station. There is a full use of
the site space in the station hall. There is no large luxury space; however the
passengers may pass the two-story commercial areas with no difficulties. The top-
level of the station is a multi-storey parking lot whose low-clearance areas serve as
the management premises for the railway station.

2.5.2 South Songjiang Station

The South Songjiang Station shall realize the goals upon its completion.
There will be an efficient transfer, easy use, clear streamline, and intensive used land.
Other vivid benefit include an integrated high-speed railway, intercity track, regional
light rail, and bus stations from first to last stops.

Functional division and three-dimensional layout: The South Songjiang

Station of Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Railway is located on the ground; Metro
Line #9 of intercity line is underground; the regional light rail for the planning
district is provided on the ground. All types of railway transportation require only
one transfer ticket. The top of the rail transit station services bus traffic from the first
and last stops and underground serves as the multi-storey car parking garage.
Functional analysis of South Songjian Station in respect to its collect
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transportation function: The railway transportation is a backbone for passenger

travel. Planed Metro Line #9 of north-south rail transit and the west-east light rail is
the main route transporting passengers. The conventional public transit, including
the regional and cross-travel public transit in and from the Songjiang district is the
important complement. As well, cabs and private cars are the supporting means of
passenger flow.
Once the South Songjiang Station of Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Rail
starts to operate, the existing status of Songjiang Railway Station will start to decline.
The main function of the existing Shanghai-Hangzhou Railway is to provide freight
and short-distance passenger transport, i.e., serving the dual roles of the freight
movement and intercity passengers flow. That is to say that both the existing station
and the new South Songjiang Station will form a combination of railway stations
whereby the existing station will feed passengers to the newly constructed station.
At the same time, the existing station will bear more in its shipping function. The
rapid links between these two stations will mainly use the Metro Line #9 while the
auxiliary transport links will be conventional public transit.
It should be clear that the linking, in relation to the public transit, from the
first to the last stops support these two stations. It is suggested that the South
Songjiang Station serves as the starting station while the existing Songjiang Railway
Station’s bus stops serve for up and down for the middle line-off points. It is also
suggested that these two stations, first to last bus stops, have the same division of
functions as that of a bus station.

2.6 External Transportation Planning

2.6.1 Highways
There are totally four highways directly related to the planning district,
namely, Shanghai-Hangzhou Highway (A8), Shenkar Lake Highway (A15), Tong-
San Highway (A30), and Jia-Jin Highway (A5), which are respectively provided
with entrance and exit toll station at Minda Road, Songwei Road, Maoting Road and
Jiasong Road. The first three entrances are convenient access to the planning district.

2.6.2 Railways
There are three railways which are relevant to the planning district, namely,
Shanghai-Hangzhou Highspeed Railway, the existing Shanghai-Hangzhou Railway
and the Pudong Railway (Jinshan railway lines). Along with the existing Shanghai-
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Hangzhou Railway, railways close to the planning district are Shihudang Station,
Songjiang Station, and Xinqiao Station. For Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed
Railway the one associated with the planning district is the South Songjiang Station
that is adjacent to the Hongqiao Station and Fengjing Station. Along the Pudong
Railway, the one associated with the planning district is the Chedun Station.
2.6.3 Water Carriage
Giving full play to the role of the golden waterway of Huangpu River, the
waterway is integrated to the national water carriage system and there is no
fluctuation of water level.
2.6.4 Aviation
The planning district can be linked to the Pudong Airport and Hongqiao
Airport through the following links: (1) directly from South Songjiang Station to
Hongqiao Airport using the Shanghai-Hangzhou Highspeed Rail. (2) the line from
South Songjiang Station to Hongqiao Airport by using Shanghai-Hangzhou
Highspeed Rail and then to Pudong Airport using the Metro Line #2 of rail transit, (3)
from the South Songjiang Station to the Pudong Airport after the magnetic levitation
from Pudong Airport to Hongqiao traffic hub is completed, (4) The urban road
network in the planning district linking to the entrances and exists of the Highway
A15 to Pudong International Airport; and (5) the urban road network of the
planning district that provides access to Hongqiao hub by using the highways of A8
and A15 that stretch into the expressways of Hongqiao hub, Zhongchun Road and
Huaxiang Road.

2.7 Urban Transportation Planning

2.7.1 Urban Road Network Planning
To achieve the expected objectives, the building initiatives for the road
network in the planning district have to include:
1) Roads within the planning district to be divided into highways,
expressways, trunk roads, sub-distributors and by-pass.
2) The internal planning district has to have a formation of loops to
strengthen the linkages between the planning district and various areas.
3) There is a need to strengthening the linkage between the trunk roads of the
planning district and the Songjiang New Town, airports, and other linkages to ensure
the smooth pattern of transportation.
4) Highways and trunk roads form the main road are the backbone of the
planning district. Improvement of this road network will provide a good linkage to
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other roads within the planning district.

5) Enhancement of the trunk roads to provide organic linking to the national
and provincial roads as well as highways.
6) The advanced concepts for planning and constructing road network in
China and other developed world should be introduced to plan the road network in a
high-standard.

2.7.2 Railway Transportation Planning

Planning Objectives
1) Establishing "high-grade and efficient" urban rail transit to provide a fast,
comfortable and safe way for people to travel.
2) Environmental protection and sustainable transportation requirements are
reflected in the layout for Rail transit line at the planning district.
3) Some of the key rail transit sites and stations reflect the Songjiang
characteristics to realize the combination of architectural style of stations and the
Songjiang Tourism.
4) Rail transit sites and stations are positioned on highly populated and
developed areas to facilitate travel within the orbit of the planning district’ rail
transit system.

Planning Scheme
1) It is proposed to have the Metro Line #5 extended from the west of
Minhang Development Zone to the planning district.
Metro Line #1 and Line #5 are an integral part of the R1 Line of the intercity
express. The terminus station of Metro Line #5 is now the station of Minhang
Development Zone, i.e., the planning R1a wiring has been completed and the south-
extended-to-Jinshan project of Metro 5 Line has been started.
Metro Line 9 is an integral part of the R4 Line of the intercity express, which
will lead to Fengjing in the future.
The extension line will impact the high-speed rail station and Chedun Station
of Jinshan Sub-line as follows:
1. It should be considered to have these two stations capable of three-
dimensional and seamless transfer with the extension line;
2. The extension line is the important way for passenger flow that provides
direct service to the planning district.
3. Planning elevated rail at the planning district in the south of A15 will have
the regional travel effect that due to the rail transit infrastructures will be built, such
as a trip from Singapore to its Sentosa Island that can use the elevated roof rail
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starting from VIVO CITY (large stores).

The planning district is adjacent to the Huangpu River and some regions of it
are the Huangpu River water source protection zones. The heavy use of cars will
pollute the air and also pollute Huangpu River. Therefore, it is necessary to build a
low-carbon transport system in the planning district. The backbone of low-carbon
transport system should be rail transit while the auxiliary systems should be cycling
and walking.
For rail transit, large-capacity fast lines are the extension lines of Metro Line
5 and Metro Line 9 while the medium-capacity quasi-fast line is the elevated rail
which should be a useful as a complement to enrich and improve the urban rail
transportation network. It is very necessary for the construction of low-carbon urban
transport system.
For the elevated rail, emphasis should be placed on transfer between rail and
cycling and walking. The transfer should be convenient based on a one-ticket system.
3) Metro Line 9 is extended south to the elevated rail.
4) The South Songjiang Station of Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Rail and
Chedun Station of Jinshan Sub-line should be of paramount important rail transport
sites whose design should reflect the local characteristics. The other important 3-5
sites should also be designed in priority to make the planning district a scenery
bypass in Songjiang District and even in the whole city.

2.7.3 Conventional Public Transit

For the travel concept of citizens in the planning district, the public transit
should be chosen by people as the basic aspects of their daily travel. So, public
transit should be effectively integrated into the daily lives of majority of the people.
Traveling by public transit should be naturally such as grocery shopping or daily
necessities buying so that the metropolitan new era of "bus culture" can be created.
Therefore, the objectives for planning district to develop its public transit are
to build a public transit culture and improve the status of public transportation for
truly implementation of the passenger-oriented public transit into daily life.
The planning district’s conventional public transit planning mainly includes
the following measures:
1) The bus terminals developed based on public buildings and commercial
circumstances.
2) The bus terminals developed based on rail transit sites where a first or last
stop is installed at intervals of 3-5 stations.
3) The bus terminals developed in accordance with the requirements of
providing modern living and high level of service.
4) A bus stop covered a radius of 100% in 300 meters.
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2.7.4 Public Parking and Other Measures in Communities

Taking successful experience of Hong Kong and Singapore as example, the
planning of public parking in the planning district applies the measures as follows:
1) Parking lot building and green area construction should be completed to
integrate a good utilization of the composite urban land.
2) To provide public space to the communities, the bottom floor of some
important public buildings can be used as a distribution center for the overhead
traffic or pedestrian flow.

3. CONCLUSION
Songjiang New Town is like an external radiation window of Shanghai. It is
a gateway facing the southern provinces entering Shanghai. The construction of the
South Songjiang Station of Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Rail and the
surrounding transportation facilities would be an incentive for Songjiang to achieve
its economic growth. For the South Songjiang New Town, its transportation
planning has been drawn with reference to transportation patterns of Hong Kong and
Singapore. Its own characteristics have been considered to achieve the satisfactory
linking between Shanghai-Hangzhou High-speed Railway and the surrounding
transportation facilities. The concept of constructing low-carbon and an efficient
integrated transportation system has been reflected. Such a concept of transportation
planning is in line with the theme of the global development today, which puts
forward the rail-based development supplemented by conventional public transit.
Further to the development of public transit, there should be a vigorously
development and encouragement of the promotion of healthy green slow-moving
traffic and the low-carbon integrated transportation system with the actively guiding
the use of private cars. It is expected that the overall South Songjiang New Town
Transportation Planning can bring a little reference value to the domestic and
international planning and construction of other high-speed railways.
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Mode Split Model under Different Public Transit Fare

Zhongwei YANG1,2, Liya YAO 3, and Weipo YAN 1

1. Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering，Beijing University of Technology, Beijing

100124, China; PH (+86)10-67390918; email: Yanweipo@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2. Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport, Beijing, 100053
3. School of Mechanical and Vehicular Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology,
Beijing, 100081

ABSTRACT
Subways and buses are two primary modes of the public transit system. In
order to decide the reasonable price ratio of the subways and the buses, the effects of
fare on traffic structure is studied in this paper. Questionnaire investigations of public
traffic mode split were done in Beijing．Influencing factors of selecting subways and
buses were analyzed. The results show that trip time, cost, gender, age, occupation,
income, and trip intention have remarkable influences on the results of trip mode
split. On the basis of combination of variable factors, the variables that should be
used in the model were determined and the model of public traffic mode split based
on disaggregate model is given in this paper. The relationship between fare and mode
split is studied, which provided a base for adjusting the structure of public traffic by
using the fare policy.
Subways and buses are the primary compositions of the city public transit
system; however, in big cities, the passenger flow split is always unreasonable
between subways and routine buses. According to the questionnaire investigations of
subways and buses routes split in Beijing, a split modal is given in this paper. It
provided a tool for using traffic policy to adjusting the structure of public transit
system.
1 INTRODUCTION
Buses are developing very fast these years. The effective ways to release the
congestion of big cities are improving the ability of public transit and inducting the
travelers to choose public transit system. In the former related researches, limits the
transportation demand research to conventional methods and so on regression
analysis, counted the question in view of the traditional method existence data set,
Ben-Akiva et al.(Ben-Akiva, 1985) proposed based on the utility theory aggregate
model. Thereafter, a lot of studies about mode split have been carried out base on this
model. The scholars steady disaggregate model begin with 1990s in China (GUAN
Hongzhi, 2003; WANG Shanchuan, 2006; LU Huapu et al., 2003).
In order to analyze the influence on public transit system structure ticket fare
compared to the public transportation journey structure influence, this research
carries on the questionnaire survey in Beijing, and has designed the corresponding
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option in the investigation

The investigation began on track way and bus lines in Beijing. The
questionnaire include traveler personal attribute (sex, age, occupation, income, and
whether have private car), trip information (origin, destination, trip purpose etc) and
existing traffic mode service level (time, fare etc). In order to make the metro railway
and other transit lines comparable in carrying on passenger, the invested lines were
selected according to level of services of Beijing public transportation lines in
particular the roadways that have both public transit lines and metro lines at
considerable length.
In this investigation, the investigator investigates the vehicle, provides the
questionnaire and scene explanation, the respondents should be scene filling in, and
recycled the questionnaire on the scene.
2 INITIAL ANALYSES OF INVESTIGATION DATA
2.1 The influence on ticket price to traffic mode split
Fare is one of the most important factors of traffic mode split; in this
investigation we investigated the traveler in regards to the public transportation and
the subway choice traffic behavior based upon the different ticket price level. The
subway ticket price is 3 Yuan as reference in Beijing. The investigation result as
shown in Figure 1.

70%
58%
60%
47%
ratio of bus

50%
40%
30%
22%
20%
10% 7%

0%
3:3 3:2 3:1.5 3:1
Subway ticket price：Bus ticket price

Figure 1. Contrastive figure of modal split in different fare.

Form figure 1, it can be seen that the relations of different price ratio of the
subways and the routine buses have the very greet influence with the traveler to
choice their own traffic mode split. With the rate between subway fare and bus fare
enlarged, travelers who chose the bus have been increased. In existing traffic mode
service level, when the subway ticket price is equal to bus ticket price, only 7% of
travelers chose the bus; when the rate between subway ticket price and bus ticket
price is 3:2,22% of travelers chose the bus; when the rate between subway ticket
price and bus ticket price is 3:1.5, 47% of travelers chose the bus; when the rate
between subway ticket price and bus ticket price is 3:1, 58% of travelers chose the
bus. From this, we can get the tables 1.
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Table 1. Table of modal split in different fare parity.

Subway fare: routine buses fare 3：3 3：2 3：1.5 3：1
Subway passenger volume: routine
13.9：1.0 3.6：1.0 1.1：1.0 0.7：1.0
buses passenger volume
2.2 The influence on travel time to traffic mode split
Travel time also has an effect on traffic mode split. In this investigation, we
investigated the traveler regarding the public transportation and the subway choice
behavior under the Beijing present public bus and the subway ticket price standard,
in different travel time of bus and rail traffic. It is assumed that the travel time of bus
is 1.The investigation result as shown in Figure 2.

80% 71%
70% 62%
ratio of subway

60%
49%
50%
40%
30%
20%
20%
10%
0%
1：1 1：0.8 1：0.7 1：0.5
Bus travel time：Subway travel time

Figure 2. Contrastive figure of modal split in different travel time.

From figure 2, we know that travel time has a very great influence with the
traveler to choose their own traffic mode split. In existing ticket price, when the
subway travel time is equal to bus travel time, 30% of travelers choose the subway;
when the rate between subway travel time and bus travel time is 1:0.8, 49% of
travelers choose the subway; when the rate between subway travel time and bus
travel time is 1:0.7, 62% of travelers choose the subway; when the rate between
subway travel time and bus travel time is 1:0.5, 71% of travelers choose the
subway. From this, we can get tables 2.

Table2. Table of modal split in different travel time.

Subway time: routine buses time 1：1 0.8：1 0.7：1 0.5：1
Subway passenger volume: routine 0.4：1.0 1.0：1.0 1.6：1.0 2.4：1.0
buses passenger volume

3 DISAGGREGATE MODEL THEORIES

The theoretical basis of disaggregate model is by traveler pursue the selection
results utility maximization. Travelers choose the mode that has the maximum utility
under the specific condition. The utility function of disaggregate model is made up of
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fixed term and probability term:

U i ,n = Vi ,n + ε i ,n

Where, U i ,n is the utility function when traveler n chooses plan i;

Vi ,n is the fixed term of utility function when traveler n chooses plan

i;
ε i,n is the probability term of utility function when traveler n chooses
plan i.
When ε obey double exponential distribution and every variables is pair wise
independence, we can get the probability of traveler n chooses plan i
V i ,n
e
Pi ,n = N
(1)
∑e
V j ,n

j =1

Pi ,n is the probability of traveler n chooses ith plan(i=1,2,……,n);

N is the number of plan.

4 MODAL SPLIT MODELS IN DIFFERENT FARE

The travelers’ personal attributes include the traveler’s gender, age,
occupation, income, and whether personal car, trip characteristics is trip purpose
have. To analyze those factors impact on the mode split, we use the method of
contingency table test; the null hypothesis of contingency table chi-square test is
row-column variables independent. Chi-square formula is as follows.
( f0 − fe )2
χ2 = ∑
fe (2)
f 0 ：Practical observation frequency

f e ：Expected frequencies

According to the result of contingency table, tests filter out the factors which
have little effect on mode split, the finally model variable is: gender, age, occupation,
income, trip purpose. Base on the variable sorting merge, the results of the data is as
follows: The sex divides into two kinds: ①male, ②female. The age divides into two
kinds: ①below 45 years old, ②above 45 years old. The occupation divides into three
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 216
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kinds: ①servant, public institutions' staff, enterprise managers, technical personnel,

free professional; ②school students, workers; ③others. The income divides into
three kinds: ①<300 Yuan per month;②300-4000 Yuan per month;③>4000 Yuan
per month. The trip purpose divides into two kinds: ①school and work; ②others.
Establishment mode split model, we can get the tables 3.

Table 3. Model of mode split.

mode split model
parameter values t score
Inherent
dumb rail traffic 2.5309 2.5309
element
Whether male 0.5382 2.1659
Whether below 45 years
0.6613 1.5115
old
Professional variable 1* 0.2258 0.6528
Discrete Professional variable 2** 0.3420 0.9408
variable Income whether <300 -0.9123 1.7426
Income whether
300-4000 Yuan per -0.5309 -1.3663
month
Whether school or work 0.4748 1.9966
Continuous time -0.0501 3.7260
variable fare -1.2223 8.6088
Effective sample size 678
L (0) -469.9538
)
L (θ ) -239.0132
)
− 2( L (0) − L ( θ )) 461.8811
ρ2 0.4914
ρ 2
0.4701
Notes: * Whether servant, public institutions' staff, enterprise managers,
technical personnel, free professional;
** Whether school students and workers.
The model validation results are in tables 3. L(0) is the value of the
)
likelihood function when all the estimated parameters equal zero. L(θ ) is the value
of the likelihood function when the final estimated values of the parameters are used
)
in the function. −2( L(0) − L(θ )) is a statistical value to test whether all the
parameters equal zero. ρ2 is the fit ratio. ρ 2 is the fit ratio after regulation of the
degrees of freedom. In practice, the model precision is acceptable when ρ2 and ρ 2
are between 0.2 and 0.4. In this model, ρ2 、 ρ 2 is over 0.4, show that the accuracy
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 217
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of the model is high.

But the t score of occupation is not significant; it has something to do with
occupation division. In the tables 3, compare to time, fare have more effect on mode
split. So, in our daily life, fare is the important factors with mode split.
5 CONCLUSIONS
In this research, according to the investigate data in Beijing, we analyzed the
effect of traveler personal attribute, trip information, and traffic mode level of service
on mode split. The results showed that, travel time, fare, gender, age, occupation,
income, and trip purpose have significant effect on mode split. The mode split model
is eventually established as a result from the analysis of the variable complexity.
Through the examination, the model has high accuracy.
REFERENCES
ABDULAAL M, LEBLANC L.J. Methods for combining modal split and
equilibrium assignment models [J].Transportation Research, 1979,
13(4):292-314
ANKER Nielsen. A stochastic transit assignment model considering differences in
passengers utility functions [J]. Transportation Research Part B, 2000,
34(5):377-402
BEN A, STEVEN R.L. Discrete choice analysis: theory and application to travel
demand [M]. Massachusetts, London, England: The Mit Press Cambridge,
1985：100-129
DAVID Hensher, WILLIAN Greene. Specification and estimation of the nested logit
model: alternative normalizations [J]. Transportation Research Part B,
2002, 36(1): 1-17
FLORLAN Nguyen. A combined trip distribution modal split and trip assignment [J].
Transportation Research, 1978,12(4):376-246
GUAN Hongzhi, LIU Lanhui. A parking behavior model in metropolis’ downtown
[J]. China Civil Engineer Journal, 2003.1, 36(1):46-51
JOHN Smiller, LESTER Hoel. Assessing the utility of private information in
transportation planning studies: A case study of trip generation analysis [J].
Journal of Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2006, 40(2): 94-118
LU Huapu, CHEN Ming, LI Shuanglong, etc. Method for predicting generated traffic
volume of shopping mall [J]. Central South Highway Engineering, 2003.9,
28(3): 1-4
WANG Shanchuan, GUAN Hongzhi. Extension and modification of the combined
model of model split and traffic assignment [J].China Civil Engineer
Journal, 2006.4, 39(4): 116-120
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 218
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Research on Evaluation Method In Dangerous Goods Transportation Via

Railway

Mourui FANG 1 and Xiaoqin JIE 2

1
Doctoral student supervisor of Traffic Safety, Southwest Jiaotong University.
2
School of Traffic and Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, 610031,P.O.
Box 861, Chengdu; PH +86-13408460754; email: fushihui@126.com

ABSTRACT
This paper analyzes chemical industry safety assessment methods which are
applied widely at home and abroad and the status of dangerous goods transportation
on railways in China, finding that there is no one kind of evaluation method applied
in the field of dangerous cargo transportation via railway. Then, the classification
and the characteristics of dangerous goods, equipment of railway transportation and
railway traffic organization are also analyzed. Based on the method of DOW Fire
Index V.7.0 and the method of ICI toxicity, flammability and explosiveness, the
evaluation method of dangerous goods transportation via railway is presented,
combined with the characteristics of the process of dangerous freight transportation
via railway.

Key words: hazard freight, safety evaluation of transportation，the method of DOW

Fire Index V.7.0，safety assessment model

1． INTRODUCTION

With the rapid development of the global economy, the continuous

improvement of people's standards of living and technology have greatly stimulated
the exploitation of new chemical energy in recent years, which promotes the fast
development of the chemical, industrial and oil companies. It also leads to
sustainable growth of transportation demands on various hazardous freight.
Strengthening the organization and management of dangerous goods transportation
is an important issue today.

2． SAFETY EVALUATION SYSTEM OF DANGEROUS GOODS

TRANSPORTATION

2.1 The status of safety evaluation of dangerous goods transportation in

our country
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According to statistics, the major mode of dangerous goods transportation is

the railway, and more than 95% of it is made up of large tonnage and long distance
allopatric transportation. There are 1,647 dangerous goods handling stations, among
them, the number of offices transacting dangerous goods transportation is 215. There
are 56 dangerous goods containers and 32 virulent. Moreover, there are 1,617
stations linking 3,148 private lines of the enterprise. Because of the different effects
of the railway line management, different safety levels of the relevant persons,
different packaging equipment of the dangerous goods and different environments
along the route, accidents involving dangerous goods transportation occur frequently,
which means that it is urgent to establish an effective rail safety evaluation system
for dangerous goods transportation (Ping Sun, Li Wang and Lini Xiao, 2008).
Many kinds of assessment methods of different features, different applicable
objects, and different application conditions have been researched and developed in
China and overseas. Each evaluation method has its own application field, so a
suitable safety assessment method should be selected during the evaluation. At the
present stage, the safety evaluation methods commonly used at home and abroad
include the Dow chemical fire and explosion risk index evaluation method and the
ICI Mond fire, explosion and toxicity index evaluation method, which are based on
the material coefficients adopting an integrated evaluation classification of the risk.
These evaluation methods have a great influence in the world due to their
practicality and scientific soundness (Anming Zhang, Yansong Zhang and Wengui
Qin, 2005).
The primary emphasis of the Dow Chemical evaluation method is on fire and
explosion, but it cannot be applied to all conditions of a dangerous goods safety
transportation evaluation. In this case, its principle and analysis methods can be
learned and improved to establish a general safety assignment method. This article
will focus on setting up the evaluation model by introducing the Dow Chemical fire
and explosion risk index assessment method to the safety evaluation of dangerous
goods transportation. How to determine the specific quantitative coefficient should
be the focus of future research and is not introduced here.

2.2 Frequently-used quantitative safety evaluations

In 1964, according to the features of chemical industry production, the Dow
Chemical Company first developed the fire and explosion risk index assignment
method, which makes an evaluation of the safety of the chemical substance. The
Dow Chemical Index is a method, which takes the statistics of past accident data,
physical potential energy and the current status of security measures as a basis, and
is also based on the size of the potential dangerous energy of the significant cell
material risk released at the fire and explosion in the standard state. Simultaneously,
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the risk of technological processes is taken into account and the risk grade can be
fixed by working out the dangerous index（F&EI）. In addition, the risk of the
special material, the general technology and special processes could be amended, in
order to calculate the risk index of fire and explosion. Then, according to the size of
the index, the method is divided into several levels, depending on the requirements
and groups of the fire and explosion hazards, appropriate security measures are
taken.
The Mond fire, explosion and toxicity index evaluation method is an
improvement upon the Dow Chemical Index method. The most important aspects of
it are: first, the concept of toxicity is introduced, which makes the initial assessment
showing the potential hazards of devices more realistic; second, some compensation
factor (compensation coefficient is less than 1) is developed, and the real risk level
of the substance can be re-evaluated.

3. ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT FACTORS OF DANGEROUS GOODS

RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION

The basic idea of the above two evaluation methods is that the complex
organic systems, according to certain principles, are divided into a number of
relatively independent evaluation units. In accordance with this principle, accident
factors of dangerous goods road transportation are divided into two general
categories: the connatural risk factor of transportation organization and the dynamic
variable factor of the transportation process. The connatural risk factor of
transportation organization refers to the fact that, with the change of the
transportation process, the accident factor may occur at any time or in any place.
The dynamic variable factor of the transportation process means that the factors will
change at different times and places. To facilitate the statistical analysis,
transportation routes can be divided into a number of basic unit roads which means
that the road conditions and the surrounding environment do not have the significant
difference during a row of probable sections of the path. The basic unit classification
standards are not fixed, but must guarantee that every factor is well-distributed in
each basic unit, and there are some factors which have a very different influence in
two adjacent units. Based on that, we can sort the accident factors of dangerous
goods railway transportation, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Accident factors of dangerous goods railway transport.

Dangerous
factor of Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
transport
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Connatural Goods risk Destructive, Injured Explosive, Flaming, Poisoning,

risk factors Radioactive , Rusty
of
transportation Jobholder Unprofessional, Handling process fiercely,
organization low legal consciousness, Tank car valve not tight，
illegal Operation， High pressure unable to exhaust ,
work wearily ,etc. Poor emergent ability

Goods packing Carriers’ responsibility Shoddy，

Re-used old packaging,
Recycled material packaging

Check sector’s Submitting package is inconsistent

responsibility with actual one because of the relaxed
checking and sampling,

Delivery Vehicle factors Body damage,

device Packaging and fastening device failure

Assorted factors No fastening measures of receptacle，

Vehicle don’t fit for the characteristic
and packing of the goods ,
No personal protection and rescue
equipment are equipped in the vehicle

Management Shipper hide and misstate the name

and
supervision Administration Backward regulations,
Low management level

Dynamic Inner factors in Traveling accident Derail and crash

variable the basic unit
factors of roads
Line factors Line level
transport
process
Nature factors Bad weather

Human factors Destroy degree of the surrounding

human environment

Different Static factors Geographical differences between two

factors adjacent basic unit roads
between basic
unit Dynamic factors Temperatures differences between two
roads adjacent basic unit roads

The basis of the definite classifications refers to various citations (Fei Huang,
2008) (Ping Sun, 2007) (Yin Li, 2009).
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Dangerous goods transportation is a dynamic process, which probably causes

large disasters because of the constantly changing influencing factors. Therefore,
dynamic variable factors in the transportation process must be considered mainly
during the process of building the transportation safety evaluation model. A detailed
analysis of the importance of each dynamic factor is as follows.
①Traveling accident factors
Once the traveling accident, the most common of which are derailings and
crashes, has happened during the dangerous goods transportation, the second
disaster may bring more serious consequences resulting from leaking or chemical
reactions of the dangerous goods. The influence range of the traveling accident
factor can be determined according to the former accident data of the basic unit road.
②Line factors
Dangerous goods transportation is usually long distance traveling, so it will
experience lines of different levels, whose height is decided by the line’s effect on
the transportation safety. The influencing factors include whether the line has a
curved conduit or rampway, and the properties of the earth, etc.
③Nature factors
Nature factors mainly refer to bad weather in each basic unit road. These
include high temperatures which may cause the goods to catch fire, explosion
caused by thunder, and high winds which may blow over the vehicle.
④Human factors
The effect of the accident is related to the surrounding human environment
of the accident location besides the destruction itself. Factors include population
density, the density and sum of the business of the company and enterprise, accident
rescue ability and recovery ability of the environment.
⑤Different factors between two basic unit roads
Static state and dynamic state can be divided according to the characteristics.
For example, the risk of explosion of dangerous goods in the receptacle will increase
when the train enters mountainous areas from the plains, and the much higher
temperature may cause the liquid dangerous goods to expand, and the pressure rises,
and so on.
In the analysis above, every factor considered in the dangerous goods
transportation safety assignment method can be understood.

4. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF CHINA’S EVALUATION METHOD OF

DANGEROUS GOODS SAFETY

Referring to the computer program of the Dow Chemical Company fire and
explosion risk index evaluation method, the dangerous goods safety evaluation steps
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in transportation can be formulated on the basis of above factors and their obtained
assessment influence coefficient.

① Select the influential assessment unit u i （ i = 1,2,L , n ）, which plays a

key role in dangerous goods transportation safety and has a great influence on
potential risk of accidents. The influential evaluation factors are the ones mentioned
above.
② Confirm the material factor MF in the unit. MF is one of the most basic
values in the expression of material, which may refer to the Dow Chemical method
to obtain.
③ Select the appropriate evaluation coefficient according to the
characteristics of the influential unit , which can be divided into the connatural risk

factor of the transportation organization F1 and the dynamic variable factor of the

transportation process F2 .

④Confirm the influential assessment coefficient F3 in the basic unit.

F3 = F1 ´ F2 (1)

⑤ Calculate transportation safety evaluation index EI.

EI = F3 ´ MF (2)

⑥ According to the influential index EI ,transportation security is divided

into six levels expressed by ( EI i , i = 1,2,L ,6 ） , in order to propose relevant

measures for every level.
Combining the results calculated above and evaluation steps together, the
general model and standard of China’s dangerous goods transportation safety
evaluation method can be obtained (Xinli Wei, Huiping Li and Zijian Wang, 2005),
as shown in Figure 1.
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Select the evaluation influence unit

material coefficient connatural risk factor evaluation index

dangerous goods transport accident influence index

risk degree of goods dynamic variable factor

evaluation index

safe measures

basic safety protection index transport risk Countermeasures

measures with list
analyze checking Higher Any
< EI 1
High Proposal
Discussion according to EI 1 ~ EI 2 check according by
the related Technical the related laws
Medium Advice
Standards EI 2 ~ EI 3

Low Help coordinate and solve with

EI 3 ~ EI 4
the department and owners
out of service Lower Must
EI 4 ~ EI 5
of the goods
Compulsorily by Lowest
administrative > EI 5

organization

Record safe measures

Figure 1. The dangerous goods transportation safety index

evaluation method.

5. CONCLUSION
The status of China's dangerous goods rail transportation safety evaluation is
analyzed. The safety evaluation influencing factors are divided into two categories:
the connatural risk factor of transportation organization and the dynamic variable
factor of the transportation process. Transportation lines are divided into different
basic unit roads, which are considered at the same time. The importance of the
transportation process dynamic variable factors is analyzed in detail.
The Dow Chemical fire and explosion risk index evaluation methods are
introduced into the transportation safety evaluation of the common dangerous goods.
According to the principles of the Dow Chemical evaluation method, the dangerous
goods transportation safety evaluation model is built. The importance of every
influencing factor required in the model is analyzed, which provides the theoretical
basis for confirming the range of each influence coefficient in the future.

REFERENCES
Anming Zhang, Yansong Zhang and Wengui Qin (2005). “Fire, Explosion Index
Evaluation Method in Hazardous Chemical Safety Evaluation of
Production Units.” Mining Safety and Environmental Protection, Apr.32,
20-23.
Fei Huang (2008).“Research on Safety Evaluation Indicators of Road Transport of
Dangerous Goods.” Wuhan University of Technology, postgraduate
students’ theses.
Ping Sun (2007). “China's Road Transport of Dangerous Chemicals Safety
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 225
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Assessment.” Beijing Jiaotong University, postgraduate students’ theses.

Ping Sun, Li Wang and Lini Xiao (2008). “Road Transport of Dangerous
Chemicals Safety Evaluation System.” Safe, 2nd , 80-83.
Xinli Wei, Huiping Li and Zijian Wang (2005). “Safety Assessment of Industrial
Production Process.” Chemical Industry Press, China.
Yin Li (2009). “Study on Comprehensive Assessment Model and Apply on
Transportation Safety of Railway Dangerous Goods.” Lanzhou Jiaotong
University, postgraduate students’ theses.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 226
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Evaluation of Work Zone Speed Reduction Measures

Liande ZHONG1 and Dezao HOU2

1
Assistant Professor, PH.D., Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Transport of
China. Address: 8 Xitucheng Rd, Beijing, China. 100088; PH: 86-10-62357218;
FAX: 86-10-62356515; email: ld.zhong@rioh.cn.
2
Associate Professor, PH.D., Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Transport of
China. Address: 8 Xitucheng Rd, Beijing, China. 100088; PH: 86-10-62074345;
FAX: +86-10-62073345; email: dz.hou@rioh.cn.

ABSTRACT
The relationship between vehicle speed and crash severity is unquestionably
based on the laws of physics. That is, the probability of injury, and the severity of
injuries that occur in a crash, increase or decrease as a function of vehicular speed.
To increase compliance with the reduced work zone speed limit, consideration
should be given to speed control techniques other than regulatory or advisory speed
limits. This research conducted an evaluation of several speed reduction measures at
work zone of highway in China. The speed reduction measures include regulatory
speed limit signs, speed bumps, as well as a new type of three-dimensional speed
markings. The speed distribution patterns and some statistics of upstream and
downstream of the control measures were presented.
It was concluded that the effect of the individual speed limit sign was limited,
which cannot achieve the desired results. The three-dimensional speed markings took
effect to some extent, which can reduce the average speed by 8 km/h. The speed
bump showed measurable positive results, which make the average speed decrease
by 17 km/h, as well as a large speed variance and also cause the vehicles queuing
easily.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 227
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INTRODUCTION
Speed limit strategy research is one of the key points of work zone safety of
highways. The principal purpose of implementation of speed limit is to ensure the
traffic safety and road capacity at a work zone, thereby to reduce traffic delays and
the possibility of accidents.
In the United States, Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices for streets
and highways (MUTCD, 2003) and Work Zone Speed Limit Procedure (Migletz,
1999) describe speed control at work zones as follows: a significant reduction in
speed limit value, such as reduction of 30 mph below the normal speed limit, will
increase the fluctuation of traffic flow, which may increase the possibility of
collisions. Work zone speed limit reduction less than 10 mph has little impact on
speed variance and is good for guaranteeing the safety. So the large speed limit
reduction at work zones should be avoided whenever possible, and a 10-mph
reduction below the normal speed limit is desirable as a work zone speed limit. In
practice, a speed limit reduction bigger than 10-mph could be adopted only under
severe restricted driving conditions. Additionally, warning facilities and gradual
speed limit signs should also be installed at proper areas before the lowest speed
limit sign. Speed reduction measures should be adopted as little as possible since
not all of the measures can achieve desired results. In actual operation, drivers
always adjust their speed based on their own judgments only when they clearly feel
the driving speed should be reduced.
Safety Work Rules for Highway Maintenance (MOC of China, 2004), Road
Traffic Signs and Markings (CNS, 1999), as well as Road Work Safety Signs (CPSS,
1998), are three most commonly used specifications to guide the safe administration
and operation of work zones in China. In these three documents, there are few
specific descriptions on speed limit adoption. The determination of speed limit value
is according to the experience which is lack of theoretical support. Safety Work
Rules for Highway Maintenance recommends that only three levels of speed limit at
work zones, namely 60 km/h, 40 km/h and 20 km/h. But there is no clear guidance
on how to choose among the three levels according to certain circumstance.
The work zone speed reduction measures include regulatory speed limit signs,
flagging, police enforcement, drone radar, reduced lane width, bump lane, etc. Many
foreign researchers did evaluations about speed control techniques (Eric, 2003;
COTRE, 2000; Benekohal, 1991; Richards, 1985; Benekohal, 1992; Fontaine, 2001).
The results indicate most of the measures can contribute to the speed reduction, but
the effects are different. Generally the effect of speed limit signs is subtle, and the
effect of flagging and police enforcement is significant. However, both flagging and
police enforcement are labor-intensive, and cost a lot when applied for long-term use.
Most studies suggest that only one measure is difficult to achieve the desired results,
and the most effective speed reduction is usually the result of comprehensive
application of multiple technologies. Chinese researchers have also discussed the
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measurements of speed reduction at work zones, but are only limited to foreign
literature review and summary (WU, 2007). In general, research about work zone
speed limit strategy is still relatively lacking in China, especially in the evaluation of
speed reduction measures, which is still in the qualitative level now and without data
support.
This research was sponsored by the Ministry of Transport of China, and
mainly evaluated the effects of three work zone speed reduction measures, namely
regulatory speed limit sign, speed bump and three-dimensional speed markings with
the field data collected from highway work zones in China. The primary objective of
this research was to make some useful findings and suggestions in speed
management for the safety and efficiency improvement of work zones.

DATA COLLECTION
In this research, NC-200 (HI-STAR) produced by Nu-Metrics Corporation
with a video camera was used to collect data. NC-200s are magnetic induction
detector devices which were employed to record the traffic parameters, such as
passing time, vehicle speed, type and so on. The video cameras were set in warning
areas to cover the whole view of vehicles merging maneuvers, which could record
the traffic streams and help in removing detecting exceptions, such as accidents and
interference of policemen. The data collection was carried out in three freeways
and a four-lane highway in good weather, a weekday and under the condition of good
road alignment. Each location was observed for eight hours. Since lane closure and
length of work zones may vary, the investigation layouts were not identical. The
basic layout and instruments arrangement of work zones in four-lane freeway is
presented in Figure 1. The investigation layout of other configurations of work zones
are similar to this. The signs and other safety facilities arrangement are basically in
accordance with regulations of the “Safety Work Rules for Highway Maintenance”.

Median

Activity zone
Shoulder
Advance Waring Area Upper Transition Buffer Activity Area Downstreap Termination
Area Area Transition Area Area

NC-200 Video

Figure 1. Field data investigation.

Effect experiment of regulatory speed limit signs was done in freeway work
zones, and the signs were 80 km/h, 60 km/h, and 40 km/h. The speed bump and
three-dimensional speed markings experiment was carried out on a four-lane
highway. The three-dimensional speed markings was set in advance warning areas,
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and speed bump was placed in transition areas. The speed reduction measures were
indicated in Figure 2. The three dimensional speed markings can make drivers create
visual illusions that there are real three-dimensional obstacle on the road surface,
which make them slow down and carefully drive through the section. At present this
kind of speed markings is still a novelty and has not been widely applied in China.

Figure 2. Speed reduction measures at work zone.

DATA ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

Effect evaluation of regulatory speed limit signs
The speed limit signs, namely, 80 km/h, 60 km/h and 40 km/h, were laid at
the beginning of the advance warning areas. This was the beginning of the upper
transition area and the beginning of buffer area separately, which aimed to guide the
drivers to adapt themselves to the change of speed gradually and continuously. The
traffic data obtained from NC-200s were used for analysis, and the detection
instruments were placed behind the signs about 50-100 meters from each other.
From the data analysis results, it can be seen the field speeds of different areas at
work zones are higher than the speed limits. Drivers usually failed to comply with
the speed limit signs. The field speeds of cars and large vehicles were different under
different speed limits, and the speed changes were shown in Figure.3.

160
Cars(limit=80) Large vehilce(limit=80)
Car(limit =60) Large vehicle(limit=60)
140 Car(limit =40) Large vehilce(limit=40)

120
Speed (km/h)

100

80

60

40

20
Speeds of cars and large vehilces in different speed limits

Figure 3. Speed distribution in different speed limit.

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In this research, vehicles were divided into two types, cars and large vehicles.
Cars included ] passenger cars which are the absolute majority, small buses and light
trucks. Large vehicles correspond to all medium and large trucks and trailers (refer to
the Technical Standard of Highway Engineering) (MOC of China, 2004). It can be
seen in terms of any kind of speed limitthat the speed of larger vehicles are generally
lower than that of cars. When the speed limit is 80 km/h the average speed of cars is
29.5 km/h higher than that of large vehicles. When the speed limit is 60 km/h, the
average speed of cars is 24.9 km/h higher than that of large vehicles, and under the
40-km/h speed limit signs the average speed difference between cars and large
vehicles is 19.1 km/h.
The speed statistics in different speed limits are as shown in Table 1. It can be
seen that whether 85 percentile speed or the average speed are higher than the speed
limits, the average speed of all vehicles exceeded the speed limit higher than 20 km/h,
and some vehicles even exceeded 100% (maximum speed compared with the speed
limit). Because there was no before and after analysis of speed limit signs, it was not
concluded that there did not play any role of the speed limit signs in speed reduction,
but the field data proved that speed limit signs cannot take the desired effect. Despite
the speed decreased from the advance warning areas to the activity areas, the field
observation the speed reduction was mainly due to the lanes dropping, merging
maneuvers and traffic volume increasing in one lane other than the speed limit signs’
effect. The degree of compliance with the speed limit signs at work zones are the
same as that in the basic section, and the drivers usually ignored the existence of the
speed limit sign in the absence of strict enforcement in China.
Table 1. Speed statistics in different speed limits.
Speed limit=80 Speed limit=60 Speed limit=40
Speed
(km/h) Large Large Large
Cars Cars Cars
Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles
Max. 144.2 109 115.6 93.4 95.7 80.2
85 percentile 117.2 89.4 96.5 71.5 84.1 59.5
Average 104.7 75.2 83.5 58.6 67.9 48.8
Min. 69.3 51.7 54.8 32.3 35.6 28.9

Evaluation of effects of three-dimensional speed markings and speed bump

The effect evaluation experiment of the three-dimensional speed markings
and speed bumps were carried out in a two-way four-lane national highway. The post
speed is 70 km/h, while the speed limit is 40 km/h at work zones. The work zone
configurations are as listed: outside lane closed and the inside lane open for passage.
The three-dimensional speed markings and speed bumps were placed in the middle
of advance warning areas and upper transition areas respectively. The NC-200s were
set to record the traffic parameters 30 meters before and behind the speed reduction
measures. Figure 4 is the speed comparison before and behind the speed reduction
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measures, as well as that of the activity area.

120
Advance Warning Area(before 3-D speed markings)
Advance Warning Area(behind 3-D speed markings)
T ransition Area(before speed bump)
100 T ransition Area(behind speed bump)
Activity Area

80
Speed(km/h)

60

40

20

0
Speed comparition of different setions

Figure 4 Speed reduction effects.

Field data analysis indicated that the three-dimensional speed markings make
the average speed decrease by 8 km/h, the presence of speed bump reduced the
average speed by 17 km/h, and the speed statistics of different sites were shown in
Table 2. While the speed reduction effects can not isolate the impacts of other
factors, such as the warning signs and other facilities at work zones. According to the
historical record, drivers tend to reduce vehicle speed when entering warning areas,
buffer zones until reaching the work zones. The brake lights could help to identify
whether there was braking action. From the field observations, the three-dimensional
speed markings can make a certain slowdown, while the impact of speed bump in
transition area was more obvious.
Table 2. Speed statistics in different speed reduction measures.
Advance Advance
Transition Transition
Warning Warning
Area(before Area(behind Activity
Speed (km/h) Area(before Area(behind
speed speed Area
3-D speed 3-D speed
bump) bump)
markings) markings)
Max. 102 75 64 65 48
85 percentile 70.4 59.2 48 20.8 38.4
Average 56 48 28 11 33
Min. 25 21 0 0 10
Std. Deviation 13.2 10.5 16.6 10.3 6.1

Concentrating on the safety issues, the bigger the speed variation (speed
difference or standard deviation etc) is the more dangerous it is for traffic operations.
As shown in Table 2, the standard deviation before the speed bumps was 16.6 km/h,
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which was bigger than those of other sections, while the average speed of this section
was only 28 km/h. This indicated the presence of speed bumps, which may play a
negative impact on work zone safety. Furthermore, the average speed behind the
bump is only 11 km/h and was lower than the speed limit of 40 km/h. This made the
capacity lower and less than 700 pcu/h, which could cause the lane queuing.
According to “Highway Capacity Manual of China” (RIOH, 2003), the level of
service of traffic operation already worsened to LOS 4. To some extent, the presence
of speed bumps have affected the efficiency of operation. So only when the traffic
volume is small and the speed control is stringent, the speed bumps can function well,
while for the high-grade highway speed bumps are not recommended as the speed
reduction measure.

CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK

The objective of this research paper was to evaluate the effects of three speed
reduction measures at work zones and give suggestions for the work zone safety and
mobility improvement. The conclusions indicated the effects of different measures
varied greatly. Overall, the single speed limit sign can not achieve the desired results
Most drivers do not feel like obeying the speed limits and they will reduce speed
according to their own judgments.. In contrast, the three-dimensional speed markings
make a certain deceleration effect, which reduce average speed by 8 km/h. Whereas
the three-dimensional speed bumps, belong to a novelty, and is not specifically
researched, so its performance still requires for further verification. The effect of
speed bumps is significant They can reduce the average speed by 17 km/h, but the
existence of speed bumps make the speed too low and the standard deviation of
speed larger, which is negative to the traffic capacity and safety. Furthermore, speed
bumps also lead goods, such as gravels and sands, to spill on the road surface. Speed
bumps are not recommended to be used in work zones of high-grade highways.
At present, the determination of speed limit at work zones is according to
experience, and lacking the support of field data analysis in China. In terms of
evaluation of work zone speed reduction measures, more papers referred to the
foreign conclusions, which could not represent China’s road and traffic conditions
properly. The findings of this research are also to be inspected and validated, and in
the further stages of this research, the effects of flagging and policeman enforcement
will also be evaluated.

REFERENCES
Benekohal, R. F., Kastel, L. M. (1991). Evaluation of Flagger Training Session on
Speed Control in Rural Interstate Construction Zones. Transportation
Research Record 1304, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C..
Benekohal, R. F., Resende, P. T. V. and Orloski, R. L. (1992). Effects of police
presence on speed in a highway work zone: Circulating marked police car
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experiment. FHWA/IL/UI-240, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,

Urbana, Illinois.
Center for Transportation Research and Education, Iowa State University. (2000).
Evaluation of work zone speed reduction measures.
China Ministry of Communications. (2004). Safety Work Rules for Highway
Maintenance (JTG H30-2004). People's Communications Press.
China Ministry of Communications. (2004). Technical Standard of Highway
Engineering (JTG B01-2003). People's Communications Press.
China National Standard (CNS). (1999). Road traffic signs and markings (GB
5768-1999). People's Communications Press.
China Public Security Standard (CPSS). (1998). Road work safety signs.
(GA182-1998). China Standard Press.
Eric D. H., Frank R. W., James J. C. (2003). Speed Management Strategies for
Rural Temporary Work Zones. Proceedings of the Canadian
Multidisciplinary Road Safety Conference XIII; June 8-11, Banff, Alberta.
Fontaine, M. and Carlson P. J. (2001). Evaluation of Speed Displays and Rumble
Strips at Rural Maintenance Work Zones. The 80th Annual Meeting of
Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C..
Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices for streets and highways (MUTCD).
(2003). Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of
Transportation.
Migletz, James, Jerry L. Graham, (1999). Work zone Speed Limit Procedure, 78th
Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington DC, USA, 1-
8.
Research Institute of Highway, MOC China (RIOH). (2003). Highway Capacity
Manual of China.
Richards, S.H., Wunderlich, R.C., and C.L. (1985). Dudek. Field Evaluation of
Work Zone Speed Control Techniques. Transportation Research Record
1035. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.: 66-78.
WU X.K. and WU B. (2007). Discussion of Speed control methods of work zone of
freeway. Highway: 132-137.
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Identification of Abnormal Traffic State and Cause Analysis in Mountainous

Highways

Xiru TANG1 and Yanyan CHEN2

1
Beijing Transportation Engineering Key Laboratory, Beijing University of
Technology, No.100 Pingleyuan, Chaoyang Dist., Beijing, China; PH (8610)
6739-1680; FAX (8610) 6739-1509; email: lilihuo@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2
Beijing Transportation Engineering Key Laboratory, Beijing University of
Technology, No.100 Pingleyuan, Chaoyang Dist., Beijing, China; PH (8610)
6739-1680; FAX (8610) 6739-1509; email: cdyan@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
In this paper, we try to evaluate the state of mountain highway network traffic by using
data collected by a fixed detector and using catastrophic theory as the criteria. Flow
and Speed at the pivotal intersections and segments on the mountain highway are
considered to be the characterization of traffic anomalies. We will find the abnormal
road section and analyze the inducement. Finally, part of 108 national road is used as
the example to validate the availability of the method. The results will be of great
assistance for mountain highway maintenance.

Introduction
Mountainous area takes up 70% of the land area in China. The traffic accident
statistics taken in 2004 took three landforms into consideration. These included
plains, hilly areas, and mountainous areas. The number of fatalites per hundred
crashes is 24 in the mountainous region, 17.5 in rolling terrain, and 12.3 in the plains.
As an important part of the highway networks, the mountainous highway is closely
related to the highway safety operation. Fast and accurate traffic state estimation is
the premise of the efficient traffic congestion avoidance strategy designing, and it is
also the important condition to avoid the whole traffic paralysis triggered by the
traffic congestion which occur on some road sections. Analyzing the causes of traffic
abnormalities in a fast and timely manner is the basis for road emergency salvage and
rescue.
The research in traffic state estimation both at home and abroad aims at city roads
and freeways. Unfortunately there is no related research on low-degree mountainous
highways. As a result, the estimation in operating states of the mountainous highway
network and the abnormal cause analysis are important in exception disposal.

INTRODUCTION TO THE TRAFFIC STATES

Definition of the traffic states
A lot of research have been conducted by scholars both at home and abroad.
However, no specific and uniform definition and literatures concerned with traffic
states have been given.
Some Chinese scholars, Yunteng Lao and Xiaoguang Yang regard it as a sense
value, which describes the traffic congestion extent (Yun-teng Lao et al, 2006).a
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Guiyan Jiang (Gui-yan Jiang et al, 2002) considers the roadway traffic states to be the
traffic wholly operating state, and the roadway network operating state can be used for
reference. From the micro view, the traffic operating states can be represented as
traffic capacity, speed, queue and delay.
From a mesoscopic view, the traffic operating state can be described as a
comprehensive level of the traffic state in some road or crossroad, and it can be divided
into normal state and abnormal state. The essence of normal state can be understood
when all vehicles are operating in safely and smoothly, in an orderly manner. The
abnormal state occurs with frequent traffic congestion, occasional traffic congestion.
and some events which will not trigger traffic congestion. From the macro view, the
traffic operating states can be described as the traffic smooth level and the traffic event
numbers in roadway network and local roadway network, and it can be represented by
the road mileage ratio in different congestion level and the accident numbers in
different severe traffic accidents. A definition given by the Xiaoliang Zhang
(Xiao-liang Zhang et al, 2009), Highway Research Institute, Ministry of
Communications, can be described as following. The traffic state is the traffic overall
operating state, including varieties of cases, such as smooth and congestion; the traffic
state is perceptive, and people can feel it through the daily traffic operation and
analyze the causes; there is no solid boundary in the traffic state, but people can
measure it by the traffic parameters, and the approximate boundary range in some
times and areas can be obtained.
From the description of the Chinese scholars, the essence of the traffic states is of
the same, even though their focuses are different.
Classification of the traffic operating states
China’s traffic states can be divided into four kinds, and they are smooth, mild
congestion, congestion and serious congestion. According to the “urban traffic
management evaluation” published by the ministry of public security in 2002, the
average vehicle speed in the urban arterial road is used to describe the traffic
congestion level.
Level I: vehicles can run freely in the road, the average vehicle speed in the urban
principal is higher than 30km/h.
Level II: there are more vehicles in the road network, the influence from other
vehicles become more obviously, and in the result that drivers can’t drive as fast as
they want. The average vehicle speed in the urban principal is between 20km/h and
30km/h.
Level III: some road sections become congested, drivers have to stop their cars to
wait others pass. The average vehicle speed in the urban principal is between 10km/h
and 20km/h.
Level IV: most of the road sections become congested, the whole road network
merely paralysis. The average vehicle speed in the urban principal is lower than
10km/h.
Compared to the classification of that in cities, the traffic operating state of the
mountainous highway can be separated into four kinds, the standard of which are
vehicle speed and its speed reduction showed in Table 1-1(a) and 1-1(b). The abnormal
state can be defined as the traffic congestion, according to the definition of the traffic
operating states.
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Table 1-1a. Desirable speed to meet the roadway designing (JTG D20-2006).
principal class I class II class III class IV
Road Level
arterial highway highway highway highway
Designed
60 60 40 30 20
Speed (km/h)
Table 1-1b. Speed thresholds for roadway operating states.
Speed Thresholds (km/h)
Traffic
principal class I class II class III
State
arterial highway highway highway
Level I ≥30 ≥30 ≥20 ≥15
Level II 20-30 20-30 13-20 10-15
Level III 10-20 10-20 6-13 5-15
Level IV <10 <10 <6 <5

IDENTIFICATION OF THE ABNORMAL STATES OF THE ROAD

Speed Features of the mountainous road
Speed is taken as the index to identify the abnormal state, according to the
threshold mentioned above. The speed in mountainous road is different from that in
civil road, as the mountainous road features’ plane and vertical section line, while the
civil road features smooth and straight. The mountainous road features
fluctuation-type curve, which the decline speed is higher than ascent speed and the
speed in beeline segment is higher than that in corner. The distribution of the speed in
mountainous road fluctuates within a reasonable range when driving in gear. Figure
2-1a shows the speed changes at K275+100 of the provincial highway S214 at
13:00-13:30, 7th, November, 2009. Figure 2-1b shows the speed at K1807+500 of the
national highway G319 at 13:00-13:30, 7th, November, 2009.

Figure 2-1a. linear velocity and turning velocity Figure 2-1b slope bottom and slope top speed

The catastrophe theory model

The catastrophe theory (Fu-hua Ling, 1987) was founded by the French
mathematician Thom in the 1960s. Strict mathematical arguments were taken to the
Classifying Principle of the catastrophe theory by Mather and Malgrange. The system
info and applications were complemented and perfected by Zeeman. Catastrophe
theory is the study of phenomenon of state jumping in differential power systems,
which focuses on branch problems of the stable equilibrium in smooth power systems,
namely the conversion between balancing points (Ying-ping Wang et al, 2005). In the
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field of communications, the application of catastrophe theory in traffic data analysis

was adopted by Dendrinos (1978) firstly (Dendrinos, 1978), and he believed that the
2-dementional catastrophe model can be regarded as the speed-flow curve. The
McMaster algorithm (Persaud B N ea al, 1989) used for accident check was founded
by Bhagwant N Persaud (1989), according to the catastrophe theory. In this algorithm,
data from the highway Burlington, province Ontario were used, which included the
average speed with 30s interval, flow, time occupancy and vehicle length. As to the
operating state of the mountainous road, the catastrophe theory can be used to compare
with the sectional speed in normality and that obtained from the detector. Then, fitting
process is taken by catastrophe camber equation or branch equation. The identification
of catastrophe point is taken therefore.
Firstly, the mathematical model is established (Zheng-yue Zhao et al, 2002) in
the catastrophe theory:
Assuming there is a time-serial, y (t ) = { y1 , y2 , L ym }( m = 1, 2, L, t ) , whose rule
meets the polynomial regression:
yt = a0 + a1t + a 2 t 2 + L + an t n （2-1）
In which a0、a1、 L、an is the undetermined coefficient, y is the detecting point, t is the
time with the same interval.
set： X = [a0、a1、 L、an ]T
Assuming X = [a0、a1、
L、an ]T
é 1 1 12 L 1n ù
ê ú
1 2 22 L 2n ú
A=ê
êL L L L Lú
ê 2 ú
ë1 m m L mn û
（2-2）
-1
Then, y = AX , X = ( A A) A Y . As the highest degree of the state valuable in
T T

the primary catastrophe model is lower than 6, and is choose in need. Then, some
processes are taken to regression model by valuable substitution, and the standard
formation of the primary catastrophe model is obtained. In this section, the cusp
catastrophe model is used to analyze 4 indexes commonly in fire accidents. The
potential equation is obtained by the primary transformation to the four-degree
polynomial, which can be represented as:
y1 = a0 + a1t + a 2 t 2 + L + an t n （2-3）
In order to make some expunction on the cube term in Eq. (2-3), we assume
that t = x - q, q = a3 / 4a4 , then Eq.(2-3) can be represented as
F ( x ) = c0 + c1 x + c2 x 2 + c4 x 4 （2-4）
In which
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é a4 ù
é c0 ù é q 4 -q 3 q 2 -q 1 ù ê ú
êc ú ê ú a3
ê 1 ú = ê -4q
3
3q 2-2q 1 0ú ê ú
ê a2 ú （2-5）
ê c2 ú ê 6q 2 -3q 1 0 0ú ê ú
ê ú ê ú a1
ë c4 û ë 1 0 0 0 0û ê ú
êë a0 úû
F ( x)
Then the valuable substitution process is proposed, and V ( x) = is assumed
c4
V ( x) = x 4 + ux 2 + w （2-6）
Eq.(2-6) is the standard formation for the cusp catastrophe model, in which u、v are
the control valuables, x is the state valuable. So that the judgment can be represented
as follows.
D = 8u 3 + 27v 2 （2-7）
If D > 0 , V ( x) can be regarded as stable equilibrium; if D = 0 , V ( x) can be regarded as
critical equilibrium; if D < 0 , V ( x) can be regarded as unstable equilibrium, which
means that catastrophe occurs on state x .
Traffic abnormal state judgment based on the catastrophe theory
In the road network’s abnormal state judgment, firstly the vehicle speed data are
collected by the monitors, and then traffic state judgment on the roads around the
monitors is made. If there are catastrophes in several continuous time intervals, the
traffic state is determined by the detected speed and the classified threshold. If the
traffic state is congestions, the road state is abnormal, and some measurements should
be taken. If there are catastrophes in shorter time intervals, it can be known as the data
transmission errors, which are ignored. The detail flow chart is showed in Figure 2-1.

Figure 2-1. the flow chart on the traffic abnormal state judgment.

REASONS FOR THE ROAD NETWORK’S EXPECPTIONAL STATES

The essence of the abnormal is due to the lack of local traffic capacities, abnormal
weathers and emergencies which let the vehicle speed down or even stops it. The
density of traffic flow increases dramatically and vehicles queue on a large scale for a
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long time. Due to the fast movement of the traffic flow, traffic congestion extends, and
overall road networks paralyze finally (Gui-yan Jiang, 2004).
Road networks abnormal are resulted from different reasons, and features
represented are not the same. Several principles are summarized by large observations.
(1) Abnormal Weather: Rains, snows and fogs are included in the abnormal
weathers. Road networks with large coverage are influenced because of the abnormal
weathers. As a result, the speed decreases wholly compared to the normal state.
(2) Increase in traffic demand: Because of the limited capacities of the
mountainous road networks, traffic will congest when the payloads are broken through.
As a result, vehicle speed tends to decrease.
(3) Natural Disasters: Earth quakes, mud-rock flows, floods and slope collapses
are included in the natural disasters, which range widely. There are huge differences in
the breakage induced by the natural disasters. For example, Earth quakes and
mud-rock flows destroy the whole road networks and break down the junction inter
areas. However, the slope collapses only congest the road networks nodes in small
range, or let the traffic capacity down and the traffic bottle-neck is generated. The huge
devastating natural disasters always occur for a short time, destroying and paralyzing
the overall regional road network. As a result, the analysis on traffic exception is only
applied to the disasters which bring fewer damages.
When slope collapse happens, traffic around the accident point is influenced by
the objects slide. The vehicle speed decreases in road upstream, while normal in the
road downstream. The slope collapse may even block the road when the objects slide
are too many, at that condition, the traffic in the road may be blocked at the accident
point
(4) Incident: The important reasons why incidents in mountainous road happen
frequently are as follows: low road grade, unreasonable geometric design, complex
road composition, and serious violation of traffic regulations, severe non-licensed
driving, inadequate road conservation, incomplete traffic management and the
inadequate timely information to the drivers. Therefore, congestion tends to generate
when incidents happen in mountainous roads, which can be classified into serious
incidents.
When incidents happen, speed of vehicles within the incident should decrease
dramatically, sometimes even to zero. As a result, the ascending vehicle speeds should
decrease sharply, while the vehicle speeds in the road downstream stay in normal.

CASE ANALYSIS
Beijing section, National highway 108, levels II&III in the road grade. This road
section spans 100km (99.15Km, from K40+300 to K139+450), which is the traffic
artery in the mountainous area of Fangshan district. There are several collieries along
the line, such as Daanshan and Shijiaying, so that it becomes the traffic artery for coal
external-transformation. Road section from K53+000 to K62+000, national highway
108, is taken for case analysis. This road section is classified to hill level II road, and
the designed speed is 40Km/h. Its orientation is showed in Figure 4-1.
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Figure 4-1. Road Orientation of Beijing section, national highway 108.

Identification of the traffic abnormal state
There are many sharp turns in the road section from K53+000 to K62+000 of the
national highway 108; what’s more, the eyesight is easily kept out in the steep corner
of the hillside; traffic incidents and Slope Collapsed incidents occur easily in the high
embankment road section. As a result, checking devices are deployed, and the vehicle
speeds and vehicle information are collected. The locations of the observation points
are showed in Figure 4-2. Under the state of level I, vehicle speeds in the checking
point at 7:30, 24th December, 2009, are gathered and showed in Figure 4-3.

Figure 4-2. Locations of the observation points. Figure 4-3. Average speeds passing the
observation points.
Continuous checks are taken, and the vehicle speeds are listed in table 4-1, in
which the observation points are numbered from east to west.
Table 4-1. Vehicle speeds in the observation points.
Time interval Stake number of the observation points
Time
(min) K53+360 K53+970 K54+960 K56+250 K57+050 K58+032 K59+836 K62+405
7:30 5 52 38 47 41 46 47 52 50
7:35 5 49 43 46 44 41 44 50 50
7:40 5 53 48 54 44 47 45 51 47
7:45 5 54 43 39 41 42 49 48 53
7:50 5 0 0 0 0 0 51 46 47
7:55 5 55 41 48 37 46 0 0 49
8:00 5 46 37 45 39 48 50 46 0
8:05 5 49 36 52 37 46 51 50 49
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8:10 5 45 35 50 43 42 46 47 51
8:15 5 52 36 51 42 43 48 55 50
8:20 5 55 36 25 44 50 46 53 50
8:25 5 47 47 24 33 50 51 50 48
8:30 5 40 46 22 43 47 45 43 52
8:35 5 50 44 20 36 45 47 47 49
8:40 5 45 41 16 35 40 45 47 53
8:45 5 0 0 0 0 43 49 40 49
8:50 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50
8:55 5 42 36 18 42 0 0 0 0
9:00 5 45 37 15 36 40 45 39 0
9:05 5 41 48 17 38 42 49 48 47
9:10 5 42 40 18 39 48 51 53 47
9:15 5 45 40 17 36 50 49 45 51
9:20 5 42 33 20 39 46 44 42 47
9:25 5 45 40 18 37 48 45 45 52
9:30 5 47 44 15 35 46 51 44 45
9:35 5 49 36 14 41 41 46 49 52
9:40 5 48 33 16 44 46 51 48 50
9:45 5 43 42 15 43 50 49 41 45
9:50 5 52 48 12 34 50 46 42 49
9:55 5 48 45 18 40 42 47 50 52
10:00 5 40 44 19 39 44 47 38 51
The abnormal data are excluded. Then data from observation points are taken into
the catastrophe theory model, and the catastrophe point is solved according to the
equation in Section 2.2. Result shows that the speed in the K54+960 at 8:20 mutates.
Meanwhile, vehicle speeds at this point after 8:20 fluctuate within low speeds. So it
can be concluded that traffic exception occurs in the K54+960, and traffic state is level
II.
4.2 Cause analysis
When abnormal occur, analysis is taken to vehicle speeds checked by all checking
points, and the speed curve is showed in Figure 4-4.

Figure 4-4. Vehicle speed curve at the checking point at 8:20.

From the curve, only speeds in the checking point with K54+960 are lower. We
can confer that only this point is in exception, and other points are in normal state.
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According to the features that may cause traffic abnormal, perhaps the traffic are
congested by the slope rock fall or stowage falling and vehicles should slower to avoid
the obstacles, which induces the road section K54+960 become congested.
According to the field check, there are some rocks falls in the lane at 20m north
of K54+960, so that cleaning and maintenance should be taken timely.

SUMMARY
Beijing section, national highway 108, is taken for example, and some data
analyses are done to the mountainous road networks by means of the fixed traffic flow
detection technology, and the catastrophe theory is used. The collected data are
analyzed, and result shows that the traffic state is within level II, and the reason for the
exception can be regarded as the slope rock fall. Because of the slope on the road, the
vehicle speed is slow, and then congestion is generated, which accords with the facts.
In the road network management, how to identify the exception timely and
exactly is the basis of the road conservation and management. What’s more, the
efficient management can reduce the economic lost to the utmost, which has great
significance in practical engineering.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This paper is supported by national road traffic security science and technology
planning for action.

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Comprehensive Review over the Application of Catastrophe Theory in
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Information Technology 6: 68-71.

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Reliability study of the results of the safety comprehensive evaluation

Hangjun GONG 1，2 and Baichuan LI 1

1
School of Automobile, Chang'an University, South section of S.2nd Ring
Road, Xi'an, Shaan'xi province, School of Automobile of Chang'an University,
710064,China; PH:86-29-85259651, email: libc@chd.edu.cn
2
Shaan'xi College of Communication ＆Technology, No 19, North Wen-Jing road,
Xi'an, Shaanxi province, automobile engineering department of Shaan'xi, College of
Communication ＆ Technology, 710018,China; PH: 86-29-86405611,
email:gonghangjun@163.com

ABSTRACT
The paper is aimed at improving the reliability of comprehensive evaluation
results to be applied in all industrial production and economic activities. For this
purpose, the paper has been examined using the Kendall and Cronbach coefficient of
concordance. The evaluation method was practiced and tested in the comprehensive
evaluation of the road safety transportation in accordance with the reliability criteria.
All the results of the evaluation items indicate that the reliability evaluation method
is practicable and the results of comprehensive evaluation on the road traffic and
transportation reality are reliable. In addition, the evaluation method in this paper is
also applicable to other evaluation areas, such as the chemical industry,
environmental protection projects, engineering and so on.

INTRODUCTION
Comprehensive evaluation has been used in all walks of life in a wide range
of applications. But studies concerned with the reliability of the results of the
comprehensive evaluation have been few. If we regard the objects evaluated as a
system, the question about comprehensive evaluation can be expressed as: in a
number of (similar) systems, how to identify which system is operating well (or
developing), which is worse, and this is a multi - attribute (Multiple Indicator)
Comprehensive Evaluation problem (Guo Ya-jun, 2002). After the comprehensive
evaluation of the “target” which is evaluated, the scorer reliability and the internal
consistency reliability reflect the credibility of the results of the comprehensive
evaluation. The scorer reliability is expressed by harmony coefficients of Kendall,
referring to the consistency of the score given by numbers of scorer (Zhang Qi-ren,
2005). The harmony coefficients of Kendall is a method expressing the relevance of
a variable degree of grading according to mathematical statistics. If we want to know
whether the harmony coefficients of Kendall have occurred to a significant level, it is
necessary for us to conduct the statistical hypothesis testing, and here we can take
assistance from the critical value table of the harmony coefficients of Kendall (Cong
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Zong et al., 2004). If it is significant, the consistency is good. Internal consistency

reliability is also called homogeneity reliability and this expresses the degree of
consistency of all indicators in the index system. In the analysis of the reliability of
the consistency, different uses require different reliability coefficients. If our interests
only lie in the distinction between the different groups, then the reliability
coefficients reach 0.7 which is enough; If we need to distinguish between individuals,
the reliability coefficients should be higher than 0.85 (Sun Xiao-min et al., 2005).
The study of reliability has been widely used in the measurement of
psychological studies, scientific studies, the evaluation of the quality of teaching and
so on, but the report about the comprehensive evaluation is less. Broadly speaking,
comprehensive evaluation belongs to psychology, the scorer impacts on the results of
the comprehensive evaluation directly (for qualitative indicators). If the scorer
reliability does not meet the requirements of reliability, then the results of the
evaluation are not credible and the results of the comprehensive evaluation are void
(Wang Li, 2005). For those scorer reliabilities that do not meet the requirements, the
reasons may be due to the understanding of different indicators, index system errors,
indicator ambiguity, irrational nature of the indicators’ structure, overlapping
between indicators, and coverage of the indicator system not being comprehensive
enough, and so on. These problems need to be promptly improved and refined until
the scorer reliability meets the requirements. Then the results of the comprehensive
evaluation can be meaningful.
In the comprehensive evaluation, with the help of the expert advice, the using
of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method and so on, we can establish the security
evaluation index system of integrated road transport enterprise after 2 - 4 surveys,
and select subjective empower law based on the "principle of differential" to
determine the weight coefficients (see Table 1). Here the evaluators use the
"excellent, good, medium, and bad" four alternative sets to evaluate, and use fuzzy
comprehensive evaluation method (Selecting weighted average method operator) to
integrate the scores, and get the result of the comprehensive security evaluation of
road transport enterprises6 (Gong Hang-jun, 2004). Using the results, we can analyze
the security situation, carry forward the strengths, find insufficients to make up for
the loopholes, constantly enhance the security management level, thereby reducing
the incidence of road traffic accidents.

THE STUDY OF THE RELIABILITY

The study of reliability includes the consistency of the score and the
reliability of the scorer.
Score consistency analysis
The analysis of the consistency of the score refers to the consistency of the
“target” score given by a number scorer. In quantitative indicators, there are fewer
errors; while in the qualitative indicators, because of the differences of scorer’ views
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and positions, there may be certain errors (Huang Guang-yang, 2008).As Table 1
shows we can draw a graph expressing the “target” score given by different scorer
after scorer’s evaluation is quantitative, and they can be clearly observed by the
histogram.
Table 1.Weight value of safety evaluation indices on road transportation
enterprises.
Compound
II Rank
Weight III Rank Indices Weight Weight
Indices
Coefficient
Comprehen 0.3376 Management Organization and
sive Stuff of Safety Operation Index
Manageme 1-1 0.2029 0.0685
nt Index1 Regulation of Safety Operation
Management Index 1-2 0.1612
Guiding System of Safety 0.0553
Operation Index1-3 0.1582
Comprehensive Death Rate 0.0542
Index 1-4 0.0227
Management Target for Safety 0.0077
Operation Index1-5 0.2309
Emergency Plans for Accidents 0.0788
Index 1-6 0.0332
Control and Procedure System
of Safety Operation Index1-7 0.0908 0.0120
Responsibility for accidents
Index 1-8 0.1001 0.0314

0.0346
Drivers’ 0.5371 Management of recruiting
Management drivers Index 2-1 0.1464 0.0794
Index 2 Average age of drivers Index
2-2 0.1072
0.0584
Average driving experience
Index 2-3 0.0979
Average cultural level Index 2-4 0.1864 0.0534
Average technique level Index 0.1009
2-5 0.1260
File of safety driving Index2-6 0.0774 0.0685
Routine driving Index 2-7 0.0986 0.0424
Daily maintenance E2-8 0.1601 0.0537
0.0688
Vehicle 0.1253 Management organization and
Manageme stuff of vehicle techniques
nt Index 3-1 0.2405 0.0309
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Index 3 Regulations for vehicle

technique management Index
3-2 0.2243 0.0289
Files for vehicle technique
Index 3-3 0.0359
Mandatory second rank 0.0053
maintenance Index 3-4 0.1477
Average tech level Index 3-5 0.0867 0.0193
Accessory checking Index 3-6 0.0542 0.0116
Vehicle remodeling Index 3-7 0.2107 0.0073
0.0272

The study of the scorer reliability

Scorer reliability refers to the reflection of the reliability of the evaluation
results given by numbers of evaluators. This topic uses Kendall coefficient of
concordance to evaluate the reliability (Huang Guo-qiong, 2006). Kendall coefficient
of concordance is a method expressing the relation of grading variable. Its formula
is:
S
W = (1)
1 2 3
K (N - N )
12

in (1)
W －Kendall coefficient of concordance
N －Number of Subjects
K －Number of Objects
S －the sum of k rank credits for each subject is R j , the
squared sum of the difference from the mean R can be used to order the subjects
from high to low, the highest credit is 1, second 2, and so on:
n 2

S = å ( R j - R) (2)
j =1

To simplify, let
n (å R j ) 2
S= åR
j =1
2
j -
N
(3)

THE STUDY OF CONSISTENCY RELIABILITY IN INDICATOR SYSTEM

If there is a high correlation between the indicator systems, there will be a
good internal consistency in this indicator system, and it is considered to be
homogeneous. Generally speaking, the higher the internal consistency, the more
homogeneous the project the clearer the significance of the marks (Ldhammar et al.,
2005; LewisR et al., 2006). In this topic, we chose Cronbach coefficient to study the
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reliability of the indicator system. Its formula is:

a＝
K
(1 -
å S i2 ) (4)
K -1 S X2
in (4):
K －Number of Objects
S i2 －the ith deviation
S X2 －variance for the entire valuation
CASE ANALYSIS
In order to verify road transport enterprises comprehensive safety evaluation
method, from October to November in 2008, we chose Shaanxi ping’an high-speed
passenger Ltd Enterprises 1, Xian’yang Yu tong passenger Ltd Enterprises 2, and
Bao’ji Qin long Ltd Enterprises 3 to conduct the comprehensive evaluation of
security situation. There are six experts participating in the evaluation of safety.

Score consistency analysis

The evaluation results given by experts are in Table 2 and Table 3 after we
compared comprehensive evaluation scores of these histogram of the enterprises
given by six experts (scorer)(see Figure 1). Firstly, we can find that the score of the
enterprises 2 is higher in overall evaluation than the enterprises 3, and the last is the
enterprises 1; secondly, let us observe the scores of the histogram of the enterprises
given by some experts. Here we can find that there are five experts for the
enterprises 2 is the highest scores, one for Enterprises 3; there are four experts
(Expert 1, Expert 3, Expert 4, Expert 5) for the enterprises 3 is the second ranked
scores, one for the enterprises 2(Expert 6), another one in the enterprises 1 (Expert 2).
As a whole, the score displays good consistency.

Table 2. Quantitative result of safety comprehensive evaluation of three

enterprise experts.

Two Ranks Standard

Enterprises1 Enterprises2 Enterprises3 Average
Indices deviation
Comprehensive
management (total 29.37 31.38 30.34 30.36 0.82
33.76 credits)
Drivers ( total
45.98 51.21 47.65 48.28 2.18
53.71 credits )
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Vehicle ( total
9.24 8.25 8.69 8.73 0.40
12.53 credits )

Total (100
84.59 90.84 86.68 87.37 2.60
credits)

Table 3. Score of enterprises safety comprehensive evaluation by experts.

Experts
Expert1 Expert2 Expert3 Expert4 Expert5 Expert6
Enterprises
Enterprises1 81.31 82.91 88.57 86.13 79.34 89.28
Enterprises2 90.18 89.65 91.12 95.20 87.73 91.16
Enterprises3 84.66 82.74 90.24 89.82 79.35 93.27

100
95 Expert1
90 Expert2
Score

85 Expert3
80 Expert4
75 Expert5
70 Expert6
E1 E2 E3
Enterprises

Figure 1. Analysis of score consistency for scorer.

The study of the scorer reliability

Let’s rank the score of every enterprise in Table 3. The highest score is
ranked one, followed by two, and the analogy is followeduntil six. The
transformation score as shown in Table 4 (see Table 4, Su Wei-hua,2003).
Incorporate the data in Table 4 into formula (3) and (1), We can get:
632
S = 803 - = 141.5
6
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141.5
W = = 0.898
1
´ 3 ´ (6 - 6 )
2 3

12
Let’s give W a significant test: When K ≤20 and N ≤7, it’s a small sample ,test
statistics S .In this calculation K =3, N =6, it’s a small sample, test statistics
=141.5; Look up table, and we know, when a =0.01，K =3，N =6,the critical value
of 122.8, S =141.5＞122.8, it is significant.
By the know, if the Kendall coefficient of concordance is 0.898, the experts
evaluation has good consistency.
Table 4. Grade score of transforming from Table 3. Data.
Experts Expert1 Expert2 Expert3 Expert4 Expert5 Expert6
Enterprises
Enterprises1 5 4 2 3 6 1
Enterprises2 4 5 3 1 6 2
Enterprises3 4 5 2 3 6 1
Total 13 14 7 7 18 4
( Rj ) å R j =63
R 2j 169 196 49 49 324 16
å R 2j =803

The study of internal consistency reliability in indicator system

The results of the comprehensive security evaluation of the three road
transport enterprises are shown in table 5 (Wang Rong-xin, 2006). The sum of
variance of 23 items ( K = 23) is 1.77 ( å S i2 = 1.77), the variance of the entire

evaluation is 10.18 ( S X2 = 10.18), and according to the formula (4), we can get:

a＝
K
(1 -
å Si )2

K -1 S X2
23 1 . 77
＝ ´ (1 - ) = 0 . 8637
23 - 1 10 . 18
The coefficient of Road Transport enterprise Safety Evaluation Index System
is 0.8637, and this expresses that the index system has good internal consistency.

Table 5. Safety comprehensive evaluation result of three road transportation

enterprises.
Enterprises
Enterprises1Enterprises2Enterprises3 Si S i2
Indices
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Index 1-1 3.16 3.25 3.12 0.07 0.01

Index 1-2 5.23 5.31 5.16 0.08 0.01
Index 1-3 4.95 5.17 5.07 0.11 0.01
Index 1-4 3.71 3.98 3.86 0.14 0.02
Index 1-5 7.62 7.69 7.51 0.09 0.01
Index 1-6 1.06 1.04 1.02 0.02 0.00
Index 1-7 2.98 2.89 2.56 0.22 0.05
Index 1-8 3.25 3.27 3.26 0.01 0.00
Index 2-1 6.89 7.41 7.08 0.26 0.07
Index 2-2 4.36 5.12 4.45 0.42 0.17
Index 2-3 4.15 4.76 4.61 0.25 0.06
Index 2-4 9.39 8.88 8.34 0.53 0.28
Index 2-5 6.22 6.36 6.32 0.07 0.01
Index 2-6 3.44 3.70 3.46 0.15 0.02
Index 2-7 4.01 4.26 4.14 0.13 0.02
Index 2-8 5.59 6.31 7.72 1.08 1.17
Index 3-1 3.02 2.75 2.71 0.17 0.03
Index 3-2 2.59 2.56 2.66 0.05 0.00
Index 3-3 0.44 0.42 0.31 0.07 0.01
Index 3-4 1.80 1.81 1.79 0.01 0.00
Index 3-5 1.01 1.04 1.06 0.03 0.00
Index 3-6 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.02 0.00
Index 3-7 2.37 2.45 2.19 0.13 0.02
å Si = 1.77
2

Total 84.59 90.84 86.60 S X = 3.19 S X2 = 10.18

CONCLUSION
(1) Comprehensive evaluation has been used in various fields, but the study of
the reliability of the results of the comprehensive evaluation has not been a source of
concern.. All comprehensive evaluation of the reliability needs the study of
reliability.
(2) Select Kendall coefficient of concordance to inspect the scorer reliability of
scorer and use statistical hypothesis testing to check its significant level. If it is
significant, it shows that the results of scorer have a good consistency and that the
scorer has high reliability.
(3) In order to distinguish different groups, select Cronbach coefficient to check
the internal consistency reliability and the reliability coefficients should be higher
than 0.7.

REFERENCES
CONG Zong, AN Li-juan (2004).“Developing of security questionnaire and its
reliability and validity.” J.Chinese mental health journal, 18(2), 97-99.
Gong, Hang-jun (2004).“Section 6: Study of comprehensive evaluation on safety of
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road transportation enterprises.” Xi'an, China: Doctoral Thesis of Chang'an

University.6.1.
Guo, Ya-jun (2002). “Section 2: Comprehensive evaluation theory and method.”
Beijing, China: Publishing of Science, 2.1-2.2.
Huang, Guang-yang (2008). “Section 6: Educational measurement and evaluation.”
Shanghai China: Publishing of East China Normal University.6.2.
Huang,Guo-qiong (2006). “Section 4: Study of comprehensive evaluation method on
teacher class educational quality for medical college.” Chongqing China:
Masters Thesis of Third Military Medical University, 4.4.
Ldhammar, Christer (2005).“What is reliability and asset managemen?””
Technology park, 88(5), 9-11.
Lewis. R.Aiken 2006).“Questionnaires ＆ Inventories-Surveying Opinions and
Assessing Personality.” Published by John Wiley ＆ Sons, Inc(America),
168-172.
Su, Wei-hua(2003). “Section 4: Discussion of multi indices comprehensive
evaluation theory and method.” Xia'men,China: Doctoral Thesis of Xia'men
University, 4.2.
Sun, Xiao-min.,Zhang Hou-can (2005). “A comparative study on methods used in
estimating the inter-rater reliability of performance assessment.”
J.psychological science, 28(3), 646-649.
Wang, Li (2005). “Reliability and validity of teaching evaluation on many indexes of
single grade.”J.Journal of inner Mongolia agricultural university.2,108-110.
WANG,Rong-xin (2006). “Section3:Mathematical statistics.”Xi'an,China: Publishing
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systems engineering, 23(1),1-8.
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Effects of Drinking on Driving Performance

Jushang OU 1, Xiaohua ZHAO 2, Kejun MAO 2, Jin ZHAO 2 and Jian RONG 2

1 Department of Traffic Management Engineering, Sichuan Police College, Luzhou,

Sichuan,China; email:oujushang1973@163.com
2 Key Lab of Transportation Engineering in Beijing, Beijing University of
Technology Beijing, China; email: zhaoxiaohua@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Drunk driving is one of the main causes of fatal traffic accidents and its effect on
driving behavior is one of the most heated research debates. The driving environment
such as emergency parking belts, sharp curves and obstacle zones on a freeway were
simulated by a driving simulator. The driving behavior was monitored during the
experiment. The drivers’ performances were compared in their different drinking
states under the same conditions. The data of alcohol-impaired driving and safe
driving behaviors show that the alcohol-influenced driving performance (steering
wheel, accelerator, brake and the clutch in the same scene) is obviously different
from non-drinking performance. The study concludes that drinking significantly
affects driving performance and this data has practical value for researchers studying
drunk driving behavior patterns.

1. INTRODUCTION
Nearly 50％ of driving fatalities were related to driving under the influence of
alcohol (DUI), according to a survey conducted by the World Health Organization
(WHO). DUI has been listed as the leading cause of traffic accidents by the WHO.
Even a small amount of alcohol consumption doubles the risk of traffic accidents
(Margie, 2004). In China, traffic accidents resulting from DUI are increasing
annually (Zhao Weixing et al., 2007). Therefore, many countries have been working
on DUI for a long period; however, the definition and evaluation method of DUI are
still controversial. At present, there are three main DUI decision methods: breath test,
blood test and psychology test. With breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) or blood
alcohol concentration (BAC) as evaluation criteria, these methods have advantages
such as good practice and clear criteria. The third uses the error rate of the driver in
completing a regulated action to estimate the extent of declining driving ability.
None of these are directly related to driving operation.

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The imperfections of using BAC or BrAC to judge DUI are mainly as follows.
First, from the legal point of view, it is unfair for law enforcement. Second, the
implementation of laws is complex and inefficient. Third, it leads to inherent defects
of the device preventing DUI.
The impact of alcohol on drivers is eventually reflected in driving behavior, so
the most accurate method is to utilize the characteristics of the driver’s behavior
under the influence of alcohol to define and judge DUI. Therefore, we used a
simulator to test driving behavior and researched whether drinking had a significant
impact on driving behavior, so as to lay the foundation for determining and
preventing DUI from affecting driving behaviors.
2. EXPERIMENT DESIGN
As DUI is an extremely dangerous behavior, the experiments of DUI are
impossible to conduct in a real traffic environment. The simulator can provide a
controllable and repeatable traffic environment, which ensures that DUI tests were
completed in legal and safe conditions.
Requirements of participants. All participants ought to meet the following
requirements. First, participants must be healthy without diseases such as hepatitis,
nephritis, and gastric ulcers that may affect alcohol absorption and decomposition.
Second, they should not have performance-impairing beverages and medicines three
days before the test. Third, participants must have enough sleep for three days.
Virtual scenes. A virtual scene is a two-lane freeway in each direction and
the total length is 14.5m. It is made up of twelve segments of straight lines, three
segments of the Emergency Parking Belts (EPB), four segments of the Obstacle
Zones (OZ) and the Sharp Curves (SC). To ensure that participants could the drive
simulator as required, traffic signs and markings were installed at the start point of
every segment, and driving requirements were explained to participants.
A Sharp Curve was designed every two kilometers. The curving direction of
every other SC alternated. The vehicle was permitted only to run in the inner lane
and lane changing in SC was prohibited.
The Emergency Parking Belt was designed on the right side of the freeway.
Three signs were designed to indicate the distance from EPB. The vehicle must park
inside it when it reaches EPB.
The Obstacle Zone was the segment of road 150m in front of the
malfunctioning vehicle. Before reaching it, the simulator was decreased to 30km/h
and shifted from the fourth to the second gear. At the start-point of each OZ, there
was a left detour sign and a speed-limit sign of 30km/h. The simulator was prohibited
from running on the right lane when passing OZ.

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The virtual scenes were made by CREATOR3.2 and ROADTOOL.

Apparatus. The simulator is a fixed-base, fully interactive, high-fidelity
environment. It offers a realistic and immersive experience. The visual scene is
projected in VGA onto a large screen at 1024×768 resolution, providing a field of
view with the driver’s eye point ofof approximately 60°horizontal and 40°vertical.
Inside the simulator, all the drivers are connected to sensors connected to the central
control computer. These sensors record and transmit operational data to the central
control computer. The position of the simulator in the scene was controlled directly
by the central control computer. The central control computer's memory and
processor met the demand of collecting and saving experiment data.
Procedure of Experiment. The experiments with each participant were
conducted over two days. DUI was done on the first day, and non-drinking was
completed on the next day. Each experiment included three stages (see Figure 1).
Training. Training included four sections: experiment purposes, the control
devices and operational features in the simulator, simulated scenarios and operation
requirements, and simulation driving. All participants must complete the driving
simulator once or twice in the fully simulated scenarios. After completing the driving
simulator, we could tell whether participants could adapt themselves to the driving
simulator in the simulated scenarios. Participants were made familiar with the
simulated scenarios and operation requirements.
Eating and drinking. The amount of drinking was determined by each
participant’s capacity. Wine is 46% alcohol by volume. The time of launching was
thirty minutes. The process of drinking was controlled in volume and time interval.
The BrAC test began fifteen minutes after drinking ended and was measured once
every five minutes. The driving test began half an hour after the drinking ended.
Driving Test. There were seven trips for the driving test. After completing each
trip, the participant rested for five minutes or a multiple of five minutes.

Aim of experiment First trip

Driving
Training Requirement Lunching Second trip
Test
Simulation driving
Seventh trip

Figure 1. Procedure of experiment on DUI.

Data Reduction and Analysis. The main purpose of analyzing data was to
explore whether drinking had a significant impact on driving performance. The

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driving operations studied in this experiment included stepping or releasing the

clutch, pressing the accelerator pedal, turning the steering wheel and stepping on the
brake-pedal. Data of decelerating from 80km/h to 30km/h was used to analyze
driving operation of the clutch and brake; data of accelerating from 30km/h to
80km/h was used to analyze pressing of the accelerator; analyzing steering was
conducted on the basis of driving operation in SC; control of running speed was
analyzed with data in the line of 80km/h. Seven trips were integrated into the whole
experimental sequence. The same attribute segments were numbered in the
experimental sequence, which were used as sequence codes of road segment during
data analysis. The parameters of driving operation are illustrated in Table 1.

Table 1. Summary Data For Driving Performance Variables Across All Trials.
Mean S.D.

Non Non p
drinking drinking
drinking drinking

Speed
Average Speed 21.68 24.46 1.06 1.52 0
Control
Times 2.04 1.43 0.82 0.66 0.002
Brake Stepping Speed 0.178 0.303 0.042 0.032 0
Stepping Depth 0.295 0.416 0.066 0.041 0.05
Times Left 0.190 0.904 0.402 0.831 0.002
Right 1.667 1.429 0.796 1.121 0.212
Steering
Left 0.142 0.775 0.371 0.550 0.0009
(right Duration
Right 1.291 1.054 0.899 1.011 0.179
curve)
Steering Left 0.0023 0.0071 0.0043 0.0046 0.004
Volume Right -0.01 -0.0086 0 0.003 0.041
Times Left 1.143 1.357 0.864 1.151 0.291
Steering Right 2.143 1.571 1.955 0.513 0.131
(left Left 0.678 0.824 0.679 1.014 0.312
Duration
curve) Right 1.425 1.398 1.175 0.423 0.462
Steering Left 0.009 0.008 0.002 0.004 0.230

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Volume Right -0.006 -0.01 0.0044 0.0049 0.0093

Stepping Volume 0.387 0.634 0.083 0.107 0
Accelerat
Stepping Speed 0.084 0.214 0.044 0.049 0
or
Duration 7.47 7.37 2.14 2.613 0.371
Stepping Speed 0.389 0.406 0.430 0.394 0.417
Clutch
Releasing Speed 0.78 1.71 0.27 0.27 0
The principal way of analyzing data is the paired sample t-test between drinking
and non-drinking. For the simulation, it was important that the volume of driving
operation was the ratio of the real volume to the maximum (Mark et al, 2008).
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Effects of drinking on speed control. The speed mean of all segments is
illustrated in Figure 1. The average speed after drinking (M=24.46m/s; S.D.=1.52) is
2.78m/s more than non-drinking (M=21.68m/s; S.D.=1.06). Drinking has a
significant impact on the ability to control speed (p=0<0.05). The following are the
main reasons for decreasing speed control ability: drinking led to the extension of
driver’s reaction time and decreased the driver’s speed-judging ability, which
resulted in an under-estimation of real speed (Dianye Zhang et al., 2002).

5
28.0
4
speed(1/s)
speed mean (m/s)

26.0
3
24.0
2
22.0
1
20.0
0
18.0
1 6 11 16 21 26
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81
sequence code of road segment
sequence code of road segment
non-drinking drinking
non-drinking drinking
Figure2.Speed mean in the Figure3. Speed of releasing clutch
segment of limited 80km/h

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Effect of drinking on operating clutch. Drinking had no effect on the speed

of stepping on the clutch pedal (p=0.417>0.05), but it had a significant impact on the
speed of releasing the clutch (p=0). The speed of releasing the clutch after drinking
(M=1.71; S.D.=0.27) was 0.93 faster than before drinking (M=0.78; S.D.=0.27). For
manual transmission, the clutch pedal must be stepped hard enough in order to shift
gears; thus, the driver must step rapidly down on the clutch while shifting gears.
Releasing the clutch pedal combines the engine with the gearbox again. Because of
the difference of rotating speeds between the engine and gearbox, the speed of
releasing the clutch is too slow to decrease vehicle speed and too fast to result in
engine flame-out. Therefore, the rhythm and speed of releasing the clutch is very
important to shifting gears, which requires a rapid coordination of the brain and feet.
The research indicates that drinking affects complex actions more seriously and
rapidly than simple actions (Jinghong Le et al., 1999).
Effect of drinking on stepping on brake pedal. Brake-times after drinking
(M=1.43; S.D.=0.66) were 0.61 less than before (M=2.04; S.D.=0.82), so the effect
of drinking on brake-times is significant (p=0.0002). Stepping speed of DUI
(M=0.303; S.D.=0.032) was 0.125 faster than normal (M=0.178; S.D.=0.042), so
DUI has significant impact on the speed of stepping on the brake pedal (p=0). The
depth of stepping on the brake pedal (M=0.416; S.D.=0.041) under the influence of
alcohol was 0.121 more than non-drinking (M=0.295; S.D.=0.066), so drinking
significantly affects the depth of brake-pedal stepping (p=0). The main causes of
these results are as follows: first, the driver’s reaction time and decision-making time
are increased after drinking, and the driving operation time is shortened to finish
driving requirements. Consequently, drivers had to step faster and deeper to make up
for the lost time. Second, drivers’ decreased self-confidence was also one of the reasons.
Stepping on the brake rapidly makes it easier for the vehicle to run out of control,
which is the main cause of increased accident risks of driving after drinking.

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0.60 0.8

speed(1/s) depth
0.50 0.7
speed(1/s) depth

0.6
0.40
0.5
0.30 0.4
0.20 0.3
0.2
0.10
0.1
0.00 0
1 6 11 16 21 26 1 6 11 16 21 26
sequence code of road segment sequence code of road segment
stepping speed of non-drinking stepping depth of non-drinking
stepping speed of drinking stepping depth of drinking
stepping depth of non-drinking stepping speed of non-drinking
stepping depth of drinking stepping speed of drinking
Figure4. Comparison of Figure5. Comparison of
brake variables accelerator variables

Effect of drinking on pressing accelerator pedal. Accelerator pedal pressing

after drinking (M=0.634; S.D.=0.107) is 0.247 deeper than non-drinking (M=0.387;
S.D.=0.083), so the effect of drinking on pressing accelerator depth is significant
(p=0). Pressing speed after drinking (M=0.214; S.D.=0.049) is 0.13 faster than
non-drinking (M=0.084; S.D.=0.044), so DUI has a significant impact on accelerator
pedal pressing speed (p=0). The duration of pressing accelerator pedal (M=7.37; S.D.
=2.613) is 0.1 shorter than non-drinking (M=7.47; S.D.=2.14) under the influence of
alcohol, so drinking does not have a significant impact on the duration of pressing
the accelerator pedal (p=0.371>0.05), but has a significant impact on pressing the
accelerator pedal.
Effect of Drinking on Steering. Left SC and right SC were designed in the
virtual scenes; left steering and right steering were performed in each left SC and
right SC. In the right SC segment, driving has a significant impact on left turn times
(p=0.002), duration (p=0.009), volume (p=0.004) and right turn volume (p=0.004).
But driving has no significant impact on right turn times (p=0.212) and duration
(p=0.179). In the right SC segment, drinking significantly affects all variables of
left-steering, which indicates that there is so much right turn volume that left turns
are made to adjust steering operation. Consequently, the ability to control steering is
impaired after drinking. In the left SC segment, drinking has no significant impact on
left-turn times (p=0.291), duration (p=0.312) , left-turn degree (p=0.230) , right-turn
times (p=0.131) and right-turn duration (p=0.179). Drinking significantly affects

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right-turn degree (p=0.009). The principal reason for differences between left SC and
right SC is as follows: in the left SC segment, the vehicle must run in the left lane
and the median divider shortened sight distance, so the driver must unceasingly make
a right-turn to guarantee traffic safety even without drinking. Hence, experiment data
in the left SC segment could not be used to analyze effects of drinking on steering
operation.
4. CONCLUSIONS
Due to the inhibitions of alcohol on the nerve center, there are longer reaction
times and less reaction accuracy as displayed throughout the driving operations. On
the basis of the simulator, we have developed DUI tests to explore the effect of
drinking on driving operations. Based on the data of the tests, the results indicate that
alcohol has a significant impact on driving behaviors. The following significant
driving operations change after drinking:
· Stepping on the brake-pedal and pressing the accelerator pedal faster
· Releasing the clutch faster
· The first steering speed is faster
· Stepping on the brake pedal and accelerator pedal harder
· More braking times
· Longer duration of pressing the accelerator pedal
The DUI had no significant effect on the duration of pressing the accelerator
pedal, the volume of the steering wheel and the speed of stepping on the clutch.
These findings could serve as the basis for DUI decision and prevention,
despite the fact that the effect of drinking on driving behavior is an extremely
complex problem. Further study should include the description of the impact of
drinking on driving, the quantitative evaluation methods and norms of driving
behavior affected by alcohol.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors are grateful to Beijing Municipal Commission of Education for
their funding of the study and hereby extend thanks to all participants who helped in
the successful DUI experiment.

REFERENCES
Dianye Zhang and Jian Jin. (2002). Safety theory and application technology of ITS,
Chengdu, Sichuan, Oct. 122-186.
Jinghong Le and Song yongtengye. (1999). “Effect of a small self-control alcohol

8
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dose on skilled driving performance.” Psychological Science, vol.22.

120-122.
Margie. Peden. (2004). “Section 3: Danger element and intervene measure.” Injury
report of world preventing traffic accidents, Geneva.
Mark S. Young and Janina M. Mahfoud. (2008). “The effects of eating and drinking
on driving performance.” Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 40, Nov.
142-148.
Weixing Zhao and Yan Gao and Yin Chen. (2007). “The analysis of the present
situation and the influence of driving under the influence of alcohol in
China.” Traffic Management, vol.4, Aug. 18-21.

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The Effects of Countdown Signal on Driver Behavior at Intersection in a City

Jie ZHANG 1, Yulong HE 2 , Xiaoduan SUN 3

1
Beijing University of Technology, Beijing Transportation Engineering Key
Laboratory, Beijing 100124, China; PH (0086-10)67396176; FAX (0086-10)
67391597; email: joyupm@gmail.com
2
Beijing University of Technology, Beijing Transportation Engineering Key
Laboratory, Beijing 100124, China; PH (0086-10)67391597; FAX (0086-10)
67391597; email: ylhe@bjut.edu.cn
3
Beijing University of Technology, Beijing Transportation Engineering Key
Laboratory, Beijing 100124, China; PH (0086-10)67391597; FAX (0086-10)
67391597; email: xdsun@bjut.edn.cn

ABSTRACT
Countdown signal can be used to remind drivers when the colors of signal
change and help them choose appropriate driving behavior to go through an
intersection between stoppings and crossings. It is a method to reduce complexity of
judgments for drivers when the colors of a signal change. In China, the study on the
effects of countdown signal at intersections on drivers’ violating behavior is few.
From the results of the investigative questionnaire, more than 85% of drivers and
pedestrians preferred countdown signal to no-countdown signal. More than 85% of
drivers and pedestrians thought the intersection with countdown signal was safer than
the intersection with no-countdown signal. The paper will be researched on an
intersection with four legs in Beijing fangzhuang district in the virtue of video
recorders. It analyzed the drivers’ behavior during seven days before and after
installing the countdown signal respectively, which was digit-display countdown
timing and showed the whole green and red time. The findings indicated that traffic
volumes were quite similar before and after installing the countdown signal, however,
the drivers’ behavior of yellow-crossing and red-running decreased significantly after
installing the countdown signal.

INTRODUCTION
A dilemma zone appears usually when a vehicle approaches the intersection
with a speed higher than the permissible speed or the speed value used for the
determination of the traffic signal time settings. In this respect the behavior of drivers,
in terms of approaching speed and also in terms of choice as to whether to proceed or
stop when facing a yellow signal, is of great importance in explaining the safety
record of an intersection.The main purpose of countdown signal installation is to
provide drivers with countdown timing and help them make corresponding stopping
or crossing decisions during the critical phase-change period.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 263
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A green signal countdown device (GSCD) would help drivers to stop when they
were caught in the dilemma zone during the onset of amber. However, further
investigations revealed that the GSCD may somewhat encourage drivers to race the
clock to beat the signal lights (Wong, Y. D. et al., 2000). The red-running violations
were significantly reduced by about 65% at 1.5-month after-GSCD, but its
effectiveness tended to dissipate over time as the violation numbers had bounced
back to almost the before-GSCD level (K.M. Lum and Harun Halim, 2006).
Countdown timers have little effect on initial delay, but the effects on approach
headway were significant (M. R. Ibrahim et al., 2008). The findings also showed that
the rate of red light violations were more for count down intersections than for
non-count down ones. YANG Xiaoguang and WANG Yan (2006) found that drivers
would be seduced by the end of green signal to rush through the cross road and hit
the first rushing vehicle from the turning point of the signal causing severe traffic
accident at intersections.
The results about the effect countdown signal on drivers’ red-running
violations are not consistent. In China, the study forenamed is few. The paper
analyzed the effects of countdown signals at intersections in Beijing on driver
behavior by the methods of investigative questionnaire and research on beforeafter
effects of installing countdown signal. Drivering behaviors in the paper included
yellow-crossing and red-running.

ANALYSIS OF INVESTIGATIVE QUESTIONNAIRE

The investigative questionnaire about countdown signal aimed toward
knowing about the traffic participants’ attitudes on the function, shape and operation
of the countdown signals. The places for investigation were located around the four
intersections at Beijing fangzhuang district. There were 50 persons to be asked for
drivers and pedestrians respectively at every place.
The results of 200 questionnaires showed that more than 85% of drivers and
pedestrians selected countdown signal because they thought it was safer. 79% of
drivers and 83% of pedestrians thought they could wait for a shorter time at the
intersection with countdown signal than the intersection with no-countdown signal.
Although the green time would be reduced at the intersection with countdown signal,
the great percentage of traffic participants preferred to choose countdown signal. The
statistical data are shown in Table 1.
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Table 1. Results of investigative questionnaire.

Choice percentages
Questions Drivers Pedestrians

Countdown signal for drivers 87.5% 93.5%

Countdown signal for pedestrians  95.5%
Countdown signal with the whole time for drivers 66.5% 67.0%
9s Countdown signal for drivers 29.5% 31.5%
Countdown signal with the whole time for pedestrians  63.0%
9s Countdown signal for pedestrians  34.0%
Countdown signal should be set up at any time 64.0% 73.0%
The intersection with countdown signal is safer than
the intersection with no-countdown signal 86.0% 92.5%
Countdown signal wouldn’t lengthen the waiting time 79.0% 83.0%
Countdown signal is preferred to choose although it
would cut down the green time 83.5% 92.0%

ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF COUNTDOWN SIGNAL ON DRIVER

BEHAVIOR
Data collection and study methodology
The study methodology focused on contrasting driver behavior before and
after installing countdown signal. The signal intersection, chose with four legs, is
referred as “ॱ” intersection. One way is major arterial. The northern approach has a
through-left lane, two through lanes and a right-turn lane. The southern approach has
a right-turn lane and three through lanes. Another way is minor arterial. The western
approach has a lane with right-through-left, and the eastern approach has a through
lane, a right-turn lane and a left-turn lane. The countdown signal displayed the whole
countdown time of green and red time respectively. Video cameras recorded the
drivers’ crossing and stopping behaviors at every approach in seven days before and
after installing countdown signals respectively. Observing time was from11:30 to
13:30, from 17:00 to 19:00, and from 20:00 to 22:00 every day.
The data included videos of 336(=4 approaches ×6 hours in every day ×7
days ×2 times to observe) hours. In fact, some data were missing because of digital
cameras malfunction, such as dissatisfied shooting angel and/or bad quality of videos.
The data above were deleted in the analysis.
The study compared the drivering behavior of yellow-crossing and
red-running before and after installing countdown signals. According to the
characteristic of traffic flow, the seven days were divided into three groups. Firstly,
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traffic volumes per hour and the numbers of yellow-crossing and red-running
behavior in every hour at each approach were matched. Secondly, the average values
of traffic volumes and the number of drivering behaviors in the same hour at every
approach for the days of every group were calculated. Then the average values of
traffic volumes and the number of drivering behaviors in different hour were
summed up in every group. Finally, the normalization of the drivering behaviors
were studied to per thousand vehicles for statistical testing to evaluate the statistical
significance of the results.

Analysis of yellow-crossing and red running behavior

The traffic volumes before and after installing countdown signals were quite
similar. The number (31.77) of yellow-crossing behavior per thousand vehicles
before installing countdown signal was far more than that (11.95) after installing
countdown signal (see Table 2). The test of proportion was shown in Table 3. The
test statistics (ZStat) showed that the decrease in yellow-crossing numbers after
installing countdown signal was statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
When facing the end of green time at the intersection with no countdown signal,
drivers don’t know when the color of light turns to yellow. So when the first driver
crosses the intersection, the following drivers may want to cross the intersection as
soon as possible. If someone meets the point time of green turning to be yellow, they
would fall into the dilemma zone and decide whether to cross or stop difficultly.
Such being the case, aggressive drivers would like to speed up to pass though the
intersection while conservative drivers would choose to slow down and stop before
the stop line.
The number (2.77) of red-running behavior per thousand vehicles before
installing countdown signals were far more than that (0.73) after installing
countdown signal (see Table 4). The test statistics (ZStat) in Table 5 showed that the
reduction in red-running numbers after installing countdown signal was statistically
significant at 95% confidence level. Drivers could not stop in the intersection in time
when they are crossing the intersection at the time of yellow turning to red because
of their special location and high speed. They would most likely to be red-running
violators.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 266
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Table 2. Statistics of yellow-crossing numbers.

Yellow-crossing numbers in
Yellow-crossing numbers per
Days of statistical time
thousand vehicles
week ˄traffic volume at the intersection˅b
before after before after
Saturday
650 247
and 30.13a 11.13
˄21576˅ ˄22187˅
Sunday
Tuesday,
Wednesday 737 296
31.89 12.42
and ˄23111˅ ˄23842˅
Thursday
Monday 772 294
33.29 12.29
and Friday ˄23187˅ ˄23917˅
average 720 279 31.77c 11.95
a 3
Number of yellow-crossing per thousand vehicles =650/21576×10 = 30.13.
b
Traffic volumes include through and left-turn vehicles.
c
Average value = (30.13+31.89+33.29)/3=31.77.

Table 3. Testing statistics of yellow-crossing numbers.

Test statistic˄ZStat˅and significant at 95% level˄SIG˅a
Description Tuesday, Wednesday
Saturday and Sunday Monday and Friday
of test and Thursday
ZStat SIG ZStat SIG ZStat SIG
Installing
countdown 14.02b  14.38  15.32 
signal
a
Z-critical at 95% confidence level (a = 0.05, two-tail) is f 1.96. “” indicates
significance and vice versa for “h”.
b
Proportion of yellow-crossing (before), p1=650/21576=30.13×10-3 (see Table 2).
Proportion of yellow-crossing (after), p2=247/22187=11.13×10-3 (see Table 2).
Average proportion of yellow-crossing, p= (650+247)/(21576+22187)=20.50×10-3.
(30.13  11.13) u10  3 p1  p 2
Z Stat
1 1 1 1
20.50 u10  3 u (1  20.50 u10  3) u  p(1  p) 
21576 22187 n1 n 2
c
Negative test statistic implies that the proportion of yellow-crossing per thousand
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 267
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vehicles in the after installing countdown signal period is higher than the before
installing countdown signal period.

Table 4. Statistics of red-running numbers.

Red-running numbers in statistical
Red-running numbers per
Days of time
thousand vehicles
week ˄traffic volume at the intersection˅b
before after before after
Saturday
57 32
and 2.64 1.44
˄21576˅ ˄22187˅
Sunday
Tuesday,
Wednesday 96 8
4.15 0.34
and ˄23111˅ ˄23842˅
Thursday
Monday 35 10
1.51 0.42
and Friday ˄23187˅ ˄23917˅
average 63 17 2.77 0.73

Table 5. Testing statistics of red-running numbers.

Test statistic˄ZStat˅and significant at 95% level˄SIG˅
Description Tuesday, Wednesday
Saturday and Sunday Monday and Friday
of test and Thursday
ZStat SIG ZStat SIG ZStat SIG
Installing
countdown 2.78  8.80  3.83 
signal

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Countdown signals provide information of signal changing, which can help
traffic participants take the appropriate behavior to cross and stop at intersections.
The results of investigative questionnaire showed more than 85% of drivers and
pedestrians chose countdown signal and more than 85% of drivers and pedestrians
thought the intersection with countdown signal is safer than the intersection with
no-countdown signal. The study used video recorders to research an intersection with
four legs in Beijing fangzhuang district. It analyzed the drivers’ behavior during
seven days before and after installing the countdown signals respectively. The
findings showed that traffic volumes were quite similar before and after installing the
countdown signal; however, the drivers’ behavior of violating at yellow and red time
decreased significantly after installing the countdown signal. Furthermore, the study
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 268
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should focus at increasing the number of intersections with different traffic flow
characteristics, different alignment elements and different signal settings.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Beijing Traffic
Management Bureau. Our thanks also go to other members of the research team of
traffic safety of the Transportation Research Center of Beijing University of
Technology, who played a great part in the effort to assemble the required data for
the study.

REFERENCES
Wong, Y. D., Lum, K. M., Fan, H. S. L., & Hau, L. P. (2000). “Study of traffic signal
operation in conjunction with green signal countdown device.” Research
Report NTU/CTS/00-01 (p. 60). Centre for Transportation Studies, Nanyang
Technological University.
K.M. Lum, Harun Halim (2006). “A before-and-after study on green signal
countdown device installation.” Transportation Research Part F 9: 29–41.
WANG Yan, YANG Xiaoguang (2006). “Discussion on setting traffic signals with
counting down display unit at intersection based on traffic safety.” China
Safety Science Journal. 16(3):55-59
M. R. Ibrahim, M. R. Karim and F. A. Kidwai (2008). “The effect of digital
count-down display on signalized junction performance.” American Journal
of Applied Sciences 5 (5): 479-482.
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Road Safety Evaluation Based on Vague Set Theory

Yongping WEI 1 , Jianxiao MA 2

1
School of Vehicle and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, 210037,
Nanjing, China; PH:025-85427652; email:weiyongping85@sohu.com
2
School of Vehicle and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, 210037,
Nanjing, China; PH:025-85427652; email: jxma@163.com

ABSTRACT:
To improve the shortcoming of fuzzy evaluation model based on fuzzy
comprehensive evaluation, a method of road safety evaluation was presented based
on a vague set. Firstly, according to the attribute set and attribute measurement
theory in mathematics, true membership function, false membership function and
hesitate degree function of evaluation index are constructed. Then the vague value of
each evaluation index can be calculated out by these functions. Secondly, the score
value of each evaluation year is gained by a weighted score function. To provide the
reference for the traffic safety decision-making, the road safety condition of each
evaluation year can be ranked by the score value. Finally, an application of the
method to a case study indicates that proposed method is effective and practical.

INTRODUCTION
Road safety is a relatively fuzzy concept, and it is difficult to give definitive
conclusions for road safety. Therefore, the method is suitable for building a fuzzy
evaluation model to assess road safety(Wang et al., 2008 ). Fuzzy comprehensive
evaluation is a widely used method of fuzzy assessment. However, there is ambiguity
and non-separability in practical applications. The method is only from the positive
to solve the ambiguity problem and ignores the role of side effects.
Vague set theory is an extended form of Fuzzy Set. The advantage is the
simultaneous consideration of the information of membership, non-membership and
hesitation degree. The method to consider the issue from those three aspects, which
makes vague set in dealing with ambiguity and uncertainty more flexible and
practical(Gau et al., 1993). It is now widely used in fuzzy control, decision analysis,
fault diagnosis and other fields, and has made better results than traditional fuzzy set
theory.
The paper introduces the attribute set and attribute measure theory, and makes
use of properties of measure theory to construct the true membership function,
false membership function and hesitation function of evaluation objective, then
calculates the vague value of assessment target. It avoids the subjective of solving
Vague values, and makes a certain theoretical basis for the calculation of true and
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false membership. Finally, the state of road safety is evaluated by the weighted score
function. The results can help the relevant departments understand the level of
regional road safety condition, and can provide the reference for formulating the
related road safety policy.
BASIC NOTION OF VAGUE SET
Suppose universe X = æç x , x ,...x ö÷ , x i （ i = 1,2,...n ） is the object of
è 1 2 nø
discussion, and Vague sets A in X is described from the true membership function t A

and false membership function f A , t A ： X ® [0,1] and f A ： X ® [0,1] . t A ( xi ) is the

lower bound of positive degree of membership, which derived from the evidence of
supporting x i . f A ( xi ) is the upper bound of negative membership, which derived

from the evidence of against x i , and t A (xi ) + f A ( xi ) £ 1 . The membership of element

x in the Vague Set A is defined by a sub-interval [ t A (xi ) ，1- f A ( xi ) ], the interval is said

as the vague value in vague set A, and denoted as n A ( xi ) .

For Vague set A, when X is discrete, which can be denoted as:

å [t (x ),1 - f (x )] / x , x
n

A= A i A i i i
ÎX （1）
i =11

When x is continuous, which can be denoted as:

A= ò [t
X
A
(x ),1 - f (x )] / x, x Î X
A
（2）

For "x Î X , p A (x ) = 1 - t A (x ) - f A (x ) is called as the vague degree of x

relative to the Vague set A, which characterizes the hesitation degree of x

relative to the vague set A, and is a measure of x relative to the unknown
information(Luo et al., 2008).
SELECTION OF EVALUATION INDEXES
Road systems are dynamic and open, which is composed of human, vehicles,
roads and environment. Road safety is not only related to the human factors, but also
closely to road condition, vehicle condition, management level, traffic composition
and social environment. Among various factors the relationship is complex, and
some of these factors can not be exactly descripted(Guo et al., 2006). However, the
death is the most harmful, reflects most obviously characterization of safety or not.
Therefore, reference to "Urban Road Traffic Management Evaluation System" (2008
edition) and take into account the actual situation of Chinese road safety statistics,
we select 10,000 vehicles (motor vehicle) mortality, 10 million people mortality and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 271
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per kilometer of road mortality index for the evaluation.

ENTROPY METHOD TO CALCULATE WEIGHT
Uncertainty is measured by entropy in information theory. The greater
information, the smaller uncertainty and entropy. On the contrary, the smaller
information, the greater uncertainty, and also the greater entropy. Entropy method
is a weight calculation technique that highlights the local variations, and uses
information itself to give an objective weight of evaluation index. The degree of
importance of index is reflected based on the difference among the observed values
of the same index.
Entropy method steps are as follows:
Suppose there are n observations, and p indexes, then X ij is the value of

index j in the programme i (i=1，2，…n，j=1，2，…，p)

Step1: positive management X ij and calculate proporation p ij of index j in

the programme i ;
p ij = X ij
/ å
n

X ij
(i =1,..., n; j =1,..., p ) （3）
i=1

Step2: calculate the entropy e j of index j;

e j = - (1 / n )å Pij ´ InPij
n
（4）
i =1

Step3: the weight ωj of index j

= (1 - e )/ å (1 - ej) （5）
n

w j j
i =1

DETERMINATION OF LEVEL OF EVALUATION INDEXES

In order to grasp the regional road safety situation in the time of
evaluation, we must first determine the range of satisfactory and unsatisfactory
numerics that can be accepted by decision-makers.
The level of evaluation index is shown in Table 1.
Table 1. The level of evaluation indexes.
Weight Satisfactoriness Neutrality Unsatisfactoriness
10000 vehicles mortality
w1 [a 10
, a 11 ) [a 11
, a 12 ] (a 12
, a 13 ]
C1

10 million people mortality

w2 [a 20
, a 21 ) [a 21
, a 22 ] (a 22
, a 23 ]
C2
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Per kilometer of road

w3 [a 30
, a 31 ) [a 31
, a 32 ] (a 32
, a 33 ]
mortality C 3

DETERMINATION OF VAGUE VALUE OF INDEXES

According to the attribute set and attribute measurement theory in
mathematics, we can identify the true membership function t ij ( x ) , false membership

function f ij (x ) and hesitation degree function p ij ( x ) of evaluation indexes. The vague

value of indexes can be determined by these functions.

Suppose assessment time Ai , and measurement value xij under the index C j :

a j (k -1) + a jk
b jk = , k = 1,2,3 (6)
2

(
d jk = min b jk - a jk , b j (k +1) - a jk ) ， k =1,2 (7)

True membership function t ij ( x ) , false membership function f ij (x ) and

hesitation degree function of index are as follows:

ì 1, x ij < a j1 - d j1
ïx -a -d
ï ij
t ij = í , a j1 - d j1 £ x ij £ a j1 + d j1
j1 j1
(8)
ï 2 d j1
ï 0, a j1 + d j1 £ x ij
î

ì 1, a j 2 + d j 2 < x ij
ïx -a +d
ï ij
f ij ( x ) = í , a j 2 - d j 2 £ x ij £ a j 2 + d j 2
j2 j2
(9)
ï 2d j 2
ï 0, x ij < a j 2 - d j 2
î

ì 0, x ij < a j1 - d j1
ï x -a +d
ï ij j1 j1
, a j1 - d j1 £ x ij £ a j1 + d j1
ï 2d j1
ï
p ij (x ) = í 1, a j1 + d j1 < x ij < a j 2 - d j 2 (10)
ïx -a -d
ï ij j2 j2
, a j 2 - d j 2 £ x ij £ a j 2 + d j 2
ï 2d j 2
ï 0, a j 2 + d j 2 < x ij
î

In accordance with the attribute set and attribute measure theory, it is

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apparently satisfied with t ij (x ) Î [0,1] , f ij ( x ) Î [0,1] , p ij (x ) Î [0,1] and

t ij (x ) + f ij (x ) + p ij (x ) = 1 . At the same time, we can see from the definition of vague set

that p ij ( x ) can also be calculated by the following formula:

p ij (x ) =1 - t ij (x ) - f ij ( x ) (11)

We can determine the vague value of evaluation index after calculating the
true membership function t ij (x ) and false membership function f ij (x ) (Li et al.,

2001).
ROAD SAFETY EVALUATION BASED ON VAGUE SET
Suppose A = {A1 , A2 L. Am } is the set of evaluation time, and C = {C1 , C 2 , C 3 } is

the set of evaluation indexes. Assume road safety situation can be described by the
following vague set: Ai = [t ,1 - f ]), (C , [t
{(C ， 1 i1 i1 2 i2
,1 - f i 2 ]),...(C n , [t in ,1 - f in ])} , w1 ，

w 2 and w3 are weight of evaluation indexes, and w1 + w 2 + w 3 = 1 . The degree of road

safety in the time of evaluation that can be expressed b

[
E ( AI=) [t i1 ,1 - f i1 ] Ù [t i 2 ,1 - f i 2 ] Ù [t i 3 ,1 - f i 3=] t Ai ,1 - f AI . ] E ( Ai ) can be explained by

voting model is as follows: the proportion of approval is t Ai , disapproval is f Ai and

abstention is p Ai = 1 - t Ai - f Ai .

The degree of evaluation index set meets the decision-maker can be described
by score function (Liu et al., 2004) in the time of evaluation Ai . Now, we define two

score functions S 1 ( E Ai (C j )) and S 2 ( E Ai (C j )) （j=1,2,3）：

S 1 ( E Ai (C j )) = t j ( Ai ) （12）

S 2 ( E Ai (C j )) = 1 - f j ( Ai ) （13）

Reference weighted score function (Chen et al., 1994), we derived the road
safety evaluation function based on vague set:

å S (E (C )) * w
3

W1 ( Ai ) = 1 Ai j j
（14）
i =1
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å S (E (C )) * w
3

W2 ( Ai ) = 2 Ai j j （15）
i =1

Evaluation regulation is as follows: firstly, according to the size of W1 ( Ai ) to

sort of evaluation time Ai . the bigger, the better of road safety situation; when

W1 ( Ai ) = W1 (Aj ), (i ¹ j ) , then according to the size of W2 ( Ai ) and W 2 ( A j ) to sort of

evaluation time Ai and A j , the bigger, the better of road safety situation.

CASE STUDY
DATA COLLECTION
We select road accident data of Jiangsu Province from 1999 to 2005 to
illustrate the application of the model. the data is shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Data of road safety in Jiangsu Province.
10000 vehicles 10 million people Per kilometer of
(motor vehicle) mortality mortality road mortality
1999 13.17 9.31 0.242
2000 13.48 10.83 0.281
2001 11.14 9.76 0.122
2002 9.85 9.41 0.116
2003 8.62 9.27 0.101
2004 9.28 11.24 0.103
2005 8.35 10.17 0.100

DETERMINATION OF EVALUATION INDEXES LEVEL

There are a variety of methods to deterimine the level of indexes. In this paper,
Probability and Statistics method was used to determine indexes level. By analyzing
the cumulative percentile frequency curve of road accident data from 1999 to 2005 in
Jiangsu Province, we choose the points of 40% of cumulative percentage frequency
to determine upper bound of range of satisfiactory numerics, and the points of 60%
of cumulative percentage frequency to determine upper bound of range of neutra
numerics, the points of minimum numerics of known data to determine the lower
bound of range of satisfactory numerics, and the point of maximum numerics of
known data to determine the upper bound of range of dissatisfied numberics. On the
basis of entropy method, calculatations of the weight of evaluation indexes was
performed.
The level of road safety evaluation indexes are shown in Table 3.The
cumulative percentile frequency curve of evaluation indexes are shown in Figure 1-3.
Table 3. The level of road safety evaluation indexes.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 275
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Weigh Satisfactorines Neutrality Unsatisfactorines

t s s
10000 vehicles 0.34 [8.35,9.15) [9.15,10.11] (10.11,13.07]
mortality
10 million people 0.35 [9.27,9.39) [9.39,9.84] (9.84,10.81]
mortality
Per kilometer of 0.31 [0.100,0.103) [0.103,0.117 (0.117,0.240]
road ]
mortality
cum u lative p ercen tile frequ ency

100%

cumulative percentage frequency

100%

80% 80%

60% 60%

40% 40%

20% 20%

0% 0%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
10000 vehicles (motor vehicle) mortality 100000 people mortality

Figure 1. 10000 vehicles (motor Figure 2. 100000 people mortality

vehicle) mortality cumulative cumulative percentage frequency
percentile frequency curve. curve.
cumulative percentile frequency

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
Per kilometer of road mortality

Figure 3. Per kilometer of road mortality

cumulative percentile frequency curve.
CALCULATION VAGUE NUMBERICS OF EVALUATION INDEXES
In the light of formula (6)~(7), we calculate the value of these: d 11 = 0.4 ,

d 12 = 0.48 ；d 21 = 0.06 , d 22 = 0.225 , d 31 = 0.0015 and d 32 = 0.007 . The vague value of

evaluation indexes are calculated by formula (8)~(10). The results of membership

function and vague are shown in Table 4.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 276
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Table 4. The value of membership function and vague.

10000 vehicles
10 million people Per kilometer of
Yea (motor vehicle)
mortality road mortality
r mortality
t(x) f(x) v(x) t(x) f(x) v(x) t(x) f(x) v(x)
199 0.00 1.00 [0.000,0.0 1.00 0.00 [1.000,1.0 0.00 1.00 [0.000,0.0
9 0 0 00] 0 0 00] 0 0 00]
200 0.00 1.00 [0.000,0.0 0.00 1.00 [0.000,0.0 0.00 1.00 [0.000,0.0
0 0 0 00] 0 0 00] 0 0 00]
200 0.00 1.00 [0.000,0.0 0.00 0.32 [0.000,0.6 0.00 0.85 [0.000,0.1
1 0 0 00] 0 2 78] 0 7 43]
200 0.00 0.22 [0.000,0.7 0.08 0.00 [0.089,1.0 0.00 0.42 [0.000,0.5
2 0 9 71] 9 0 00] 0 9 71]
200 1.00 0.00 [1.000,1.0 1.00 0.00 [1.000,1.0 1.00 0.00 [1.000,1.0
3 0 0 00] 0 0 00] 0 0 00]
200 0.33 0.00 [0.338,1.0 0.00 1.00 [0.000,1.0 0.50 0.00 [0.500,1.0
4 8 0 00] 0 0 00] 0 0 00]
200 1.00 0.00 [1.000,1.0 0.00 1.00 [0.000,0.0 1.00 0.00 [1.000,1.0
5 0 0 00] 0 0 00] 0 0 00]

ANALYSIS OF EVALUATION RESULTS

According to the formulate (12) and (14), we calculate these results:
W1 ( 2003) > W1 (2005) > W1 (1999) > W1 ( 2004) > W1 ( 2002) > W1 ( 2001) = W1 (2000) ；then on the

basis of formulate (13) and (15), we get the consequence: W1 (2001) = W1 (2000) and

W 2 ( 2001) > W 2 (2000) . Therefore, it can be seen from the model that road safety

conditions of Jiangsu Province in those years from excenllent to poor are as follows:
the year of 2003, 2005, 1999, 2004, 2002, 2001 and 2000. The results are shown in
Table 5.
Table.5 Results.
10000 vehicles (motor 10 million Per kilometer
vehicle) people of
W1 ( Ai ) W 2 ( Ai )
mortality mortality road mortality
S1 S2 S1 S2 S1 S2

199
0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.350 0.350
9
200 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
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0
200
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.688 0.000 0.143 0.000 0.282
1
200
0.000 0.771 0.089 1.000 0.000 0.572 0.031 0.789
2
200
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
3
200
0.338 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.500 1.000 0.270 0.650
4
200
1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000 0.650 0.650
5

Table.6 Analysis of results.

result
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
method
Vague 2003 2005 1999 2004 2002 2001 2000
AHP 2003 2005 1999 2004 2002 2000 2001
In order to verify and explain the correctness and rationality of evaluation
results based on vague set theory, Table 6 shows the evaluation results of AHP. From
Table 6 shows the results of two methods are basically the same, which shows the
result of road traffic evaluation model based on vague set theory is reasonable and
feasible.
CONCLUSIONS
In view of the ambiguity of the nature of road safety, and limitation of
classical fuzzy theory, the paper introduces the vague set theory to research road
safety evaluation, and achieves a more satisfactory result. The method in
comparision with other methods has the following characteristics by analysing the
theory and example: 1) Evaluation indexes are simple and easy to collect data; 2) The
method uses data their own characteristics to evaluation, which can avoid a certain
subjectivity ; 3) The evaluation method is simple. On account of ambiguity of road
safety, fuzzy theory will have a more broad application prospects. With the
continuous deepening of the study, there will be more new methods apply to
evaluating road safety.

REFERENCES
Chen SM, Tan J M. (1994). “Handling multicriteria fuzzy decision—making
problems based on Vague set theory.” Fuzzy Setsand Systems, 163-172.
Gau Wenlung, Buehrer DJ. (1993). “Vague sets.” IEEE Transactions on Systems
Man and Cybernetics, 610-614.
Guo Yingshi, and Yuan Wei, Fu Rui. (2006). “Research on Characteristics of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 278
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Assessment Indexes for Road Safety.” Journal of Highway and

Transportation Research and Development, 102-105.
Li Fan, and Lu An, Cai Lijin. (2001) “Multicriteria Decision Making Based on Vague
Sets.” Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1-3.
Liu Huawen. (2004). “Vague Set Methods of Multicriteria Fuzzy Decision Making.”
Systems Engineering-theory & Practice, 103-109.
Luo Jungang, Xie Jiancang. (2008). “Fuzzy Multi-objectives Decision Making Based
on Vague Set and Its Application.” Mathematics in Practice and Theory,
114-122.
Wang Yan, Guo Zhongyin. (2008) “Road Safety Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Logic.”
Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science), 47-51.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 279
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Safety Prediction Models of Freeway in Plain Terrain

Jie ZHANG1, Xiaoduan SUN2 and Yulong HE3,

1
Beijing University of Technology, Beijing Transportation Engineering Key
Laboratory, Beijing 100124, China; PH (0086-10)67396176; FAX (0086-10)
67391597; email: joyupm@gmail.com
2
Beijing University of Technology, Beijing Transportation Engineering Key
Laboratory, Beijing 100124, China; PH (0086-10)67391597; FAX (0086-10)
67391597; email: xdsun@bjut.edu.cn
3
Beijing University of Technology, Beijing Transportation Engineering Key
Laboratory, Beijing 100124, China; PH (0086-10)67391597; FAX (0086-10)
67391597; email: ylhe@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
This study analyzed the relationships between alignment elements and traffic
accidents, traffic flow characteristics and traffic accidents, and environmental
features and traffic accidents, which were based on the presumption that drivers on
the freeway had better conditions for steering and had experience driving. The
findings from the freeway Jing Jintang in plain terrain is that the ideal alignment
design is not a main factor causing traffic accidents. There are strong and obvious
correlations between traffic flow characteristics and traffic accidents and
environmental features and traffic accidents. By means of nonlinear regression, the
crash rates prediction models were constructed, the dependent variables are crash
rates including three types which are: property damage only accident rate, casualty
accident rate and the total accident rate. The independent variables are the
characteristics of traffic flow and the environment. The three models can be used as
management tools for traffic engineers to measure the safety of freeways.

1. INTRODUCTION
Despite a large amount of manpower and material resources being invested to
improve the safety of roads, the severity and frequency of crashes are still the main
challenges, especially for freeways. Since the first national freeway was open to the
traffic in 1988, the number and fatalities of traffic accidents keeps rising. Analyzing
the effects of certain factors on traffic accidents would significantly help traffic
engineers determine suitable countermeasures to reduce the occurrence and severity
of crashes.
Ceder and Livneh (1982) and Martin (2002) observed U-shaped curves
depicting crash rates as a function of hourly traffic flow for free-flow conditions.
Garber and Ehrhart (2000) observed that crash rates involve an interaction of
variation in speed and flow, with crash rates being an increasing function of the
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standard deviation of speed for all levels of flow. Aljanahi et al. (1999) and Garber
and Gadiraju (1990) found that crash rates were positively correlated to both mean
speed and variation in speed. Thomas F. Golob, Wilfred W. Recker and Veronica M.
Alvarez (2004) presented evidence of strong relationships between traffic flow
conditions and the likelihood of traffic accidents by type of crash. The key traffic
flow elements that affect safety are found to be mean volume and median speed, and
temporal variations in volume and speed, where variations need to be distinguished
by freeway lane.
This study has analyzed the effect of characteristics of traffic flow, alignment
and environment on crash rates of the freeway Jing Jintang in plain terrain, and then
constructed safety prediction models, which could be used in improving the level of
traffic safety of the freeway.

2. DATA COLLECTION
According to the purpose and scope of the study, we collected data on traffic
flow, alignment and environment from the sample freeway. Installing traffic flow
detectors on freeways in China is beginning to become common. Although detectors
are fixed on some freeways, many are not used. So, the data of traffic flow about
speed of different vehicles, volume of different vehicles and occupancy in every
interval (such as 1 hour, 15 minutes, 5 minutes or 1 minute) are difficult to collect. In
need of data to be applied to the freeway Jing Jintang in the northern plain, one of the
heavily traveled freeways in China was chosen as the sample. It links Beijing via
central Tianjin to Tanggu in municipalities and Hebei province. There are four lanes
in two ways and on average the lane on main line is 3.75m.
The data on traffic accidents from 2002 to 2004 was obtained from police
traffic accident records. There are 2,829 crashes total, with 1,250 property damage
only crashes, 1,435 injury crashes and 144 fatal crashes.
The data on traffic flow was obtained from the loop detectors located at 23
sections on Jing Jintang freeway from May to December in 2004, which included
average speeds and traffic volumes of cars and heavy vehicles respectively in every
minute. The cars included passenger cars and small trucks. The heavy vehicles
include medium-sized vehicles, large-scale vehicles and tows (the types of vehicles
are in JTG B01-2003 “Technical Standard of Highway Engineering”). The data on
the environment consisted of information about fog, access, interchange, toll stations,
service areas and district of city or country.

3. ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

3.1 Alignment and Crash Rate
The freeway was divided into segments based on the sections of every toll
station and calculation of annual average daily traffic (AADT) per segment.
Combined with crash frequency per kilometer from 2002 to 2004, there are the
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distributions of crash rates along the 142 mileages for different ways (see Figure 1
and Figure 2). Crash rate was defined in Formula 1.
N × 1000000
crash　rate = (1)
365 × AADT × L
Where,
N=Number of crashes including fatal accidents, injury accidents and property
damage only accidents per kilometer,
L = Length of the segment,
AADT = Annual average daily traffic.

Figure 1. Distribution of crash rates of up direction on the freeway.

Figure 2. Distribution of crash rates of down direction on the freeway

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There was a distinct fluctuation of crashes for up direction (the direction of

entering Beijing) with no obvious convergence. For down direction (the direction of
leaving Beijing). For example, the crash rates were much higher on the two segments
of K63-K64 and K102-K103 in 2002, but in 2003 and 2004 the crash rates decreased.
The crash rates were abnormally higher on the segment K4-K5 in 2004, but they
were not high in 2002 and 2003. The facts aforementioned show that the crash rates
were stochastic and the high crash rates individually resulted from independent
events; no strong association existed between crash rate and better alignment design.

3.2 Environment and Crash Rate

The effect of environment on crashes is caused by the effect of interchange,
toll station, time and fog during crashes. The crashes that occurred at environmental
districts for the up direction totaled 605, which was 40% of the total crashes for the
up direction and 373 (30%) for the down direction. The large percentage of crashes
occurring in those environmental situations shows the important effect of
environmental elements on the crash rate.

3.3 Traffic Flow Characteristics and Crash Rate

Eleven segments were obtained after partitioning the whole freeway
according to the center points of interchanges. The sample size was 528(=2 ways×
24 hours×11segments). Traffic accidents (property damage only accidents-PDO,
injury accidents-Injury and fatal accidents-Fatal) from 2002 to 2004 and traffic flow
characteristics in every hour of a day were arranged for every segment. The unit of
accident rate is accidents per kilometer and the unit of hourly traffic volume is
passenger car unit (PCU). According to the traffic composition, a car equals a
passenger car and a heavy vehicle equals 2.234 passenger cars in the study. Crashes
with no information recorded about time, location, or direction were excluded.

3.4 Hourly Traffic Volume and Crash Rate

Crash rates of PDO accidents, injury accidents and total accidents increase as
the hourly traffic volumes increase (see Figure 3). When traffic volumes are great,
vehicles interfere with each other and sideswipe and rear-end collisions are more
common. Crash rates of fatal accidents decrease as the hourly traffic volumes
increase (see Figure 3). When traffic volumes are low, the speeds of vehicles are high,
so the accidents are more serious.
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1.6 2.5
1.4

Crash Rates of Injury

Crash Rates of PDO
1.2
2

(number/km)
(number/km)
1 1.5
0.8
0.6
1

0.4 0.5
0.2
0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Houly Traffic Volumn (pcu/h) Houly Traffic Volumn (pcu/h)

0.35 3.5
0.3 3

Crash Rates of Total

Crash Rates of Fatal
(number/km)

(number/km)
0.25 2.5
0.2 2
0.15 1.5
0.1 1
0.05 0.5
0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Houly Traffic Volumn (pcu/h) Houly Traffic Volumn (pcu/h)

Figure 3. Hourly traffic volume and crash rate.

3.5 Percentage of Heavy Vehicles and Crash Rate

Crash rates of PDO, injury and total accidents decrease as the proportions of
heavy vehicles increase. The relationships are inverse. Because the increase of heavy
vehicles has improved the drivers’ alertness, drivers’ behavior may be safer. The fatal
accident rate is stochastic toward the proportion of large vehicles (see Figure 4).
1.6 2.5
1.4
Crash Rates of Injury
Crash Rates of PDL

2
1.2
(number/km)

(number/km)

1 1.5
0.8
0.6 1
0.4
0.5
0.2
0 0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Percentage of Heavy Vehicles Percentage of Heavy Vehicles

0.35 3.5
0.3 3
Crash Rates of Total
Crash Rates of Fatal
(number/km)

(number/km)

0.25 2.5
0.2 2
0.15 1.5
0.1 1
0.05 0.5
0 0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Percentage of Heavy Vehicles Percentage of Heavy Vehicles

Figure 4. Percentage of heavy vehicles and crash rate.

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3.6 Average Speed Differential and Crash Rate

When speed differentials between cars and heavy vehicles are smaller than
10km/h, the crash rates of PDO, injury and total accidents are stochastic respectively
(see Figure 5). When speed differentials are greater than 35km/h, the crash rates of
the three accidents above are near zero. From 10km/h to 35km/h, the scattered points
are limited in the triangle range. The fatal accidents rate is stochastic toward the
speed differential between cars and heavy vehicles.

3.7 V/C and Crash Rate

V/C is the ratio of hourly traffic volume and capacity. The relationship
between V/C and crash rate is similar to the relationship between hourly traffic
volume and crash rate. Crash rates of PDO accidents, injury accidents and total
accidents increase as V/Cs increase. Crash rates of fatal accidents decrease as V/Cs
increase.

1.6 2.5
1.4
Crash Rates of PDO

1.2 2
Crash Rates of Injury
(number/h)

1
(number/km)

1.5
0.8
0.6 1
0.4
0.2 0.5
0
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Speed Differential (km/h) Speed Differential (km/h)

0.35 3.5
3
Crash Rates of Total

0.3
Crash Rates of Fatal

(number/km)

2.5
(number/km)

0.25
0.2 2
0.15 1.5

0.1 1
0.5
0.05
0
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Speed Differential (km/h)
Speed Differential (km/h)

Figure 5. Speed differential and crash rate.

3.8 Multivariate Regression Model

By means of nonlinear regression and STATA software, the safety prediction
models were constructed (see Table 1).
The form of the safety prediction model is shown in Formula 2.
n
( ∑ β j f j ( x ij ))
λ i = Flow i × EXP 　 (2)
j=0
Where,
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λi = Expected crash rates in a period of 3 years on the i segment,

xij = The j independent variable on the i segment,
Flowi= Hourly traffic volume on the i segment,
βj = Coefficient of the independent variable xij,
fj (xij) = The function of the independent variable xij.
Table 1. Results of safety prediction models of freeway in plain terrain.
Sum of
Types of 2 Standard
The Formulas of Models Adjusted R AIC Square of
Models Error
Residuals
Crashrate=Flow×EXP(-9.2
8+0.54×Way+0.24×Interva
Total l-0.61×Fog
-121
accident +1.19×City-0.04/Truckrate 0.749 0.315 51.5
2
s -0.03×Speeddifferent+1.03

×Vc+0.45× Exit )
Injuryfatalrate=Flow×EXP(
-10.22+0.43×Way-0.43×Fo
Casualty g+1.86×City
-153
accident -0.04/Truckrate-0.03×Spee 0.698 0.231 27.8
9
s ddifferent+1.89×Vc+0.33×

Exit )
Propertyrate=Flow×EXP(-
11.77+0.76×Way-0.95×Fog
PDO
+0.47×City -184
accident 0.574 0.173 15.6
-2.19/Speeddifferent 7
s
+2.96×Vc+0.99× Exit )
Crashrate=crash rate of total accidents on the segment in a 3-year period,
Injuryfatalrate=crash rate of casualty accidents on the segment in a 3-year period,
Propertyrate= crash rate of PDO accidents on the segment in a 3-year period,
Flow=hourly traffic volume (pcu/h),
Way=direction of the segment, “1” is up, “0” is down,
Interval=time, “1” is day（6:00am～7:00pm）, “0” is other time,
Fog= district of fog, “1” is the segment is in the district of fog, “0” is no fog,
City=area of city, “1” is the segment is in the area of city, “0” is no city,
Truckrate=percentage of heavy vehicles,
Speeddifferent= speed differential between cars and heavy vehicles,
Vc=V/C, Exit= the number of access on the segment.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 286
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4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The findings of the freeway Jing Jintang in plain terrain are that the ideal
alignment design is not a main factor causing traffic accidents. There are strong and
obvious correlations between traffic flow characteristics and traffic accidents as well
as environmental elements and traffic accidents. Safety prediction models indicate
that the factors having significant influences on crash rates include heavy vehicle rate,
hourly traffic volume, speed differential between cars and heavy vehicles, number of
access, effect of fog, effect of district (city or country), effect of direction (up or
down) and effect of time (day or night).
The results of this research are not representative of all freeways in Chinese
plain terrain. However, the freeway Jing Jintang has common characteristics of all
the freeways in plain terrain, namely, better standards of alignment design and lower
grades, so it is a good example for exploring the main causes that lead to traffic
accidents on freeways similar to the Jing Jintang freeway. Using the data of traffic
flow from loop detectors to study on traffic accidents will be a future trend in China.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The research was funded through the program (50778007) of National
Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). The authors gratefully acknowledge
the support of the company that manages the freeway and the department that records
accidents of the freeway. Our thanks also go to other members of the research team
of traffic safety of the Transportation Research Center of Beijing University of
Technology, who played a great part in the effort to assemble the required data for
the study.

REFERENCES
Aljanahi AAM, Rhodes AH, Metcalfe AV (1999). “Speed, speed limits and road
traffic accidents under flow conditions.” Accid Anal and Prev. 31:161-168.
Ceder, A., Livneh, L. (1982). “Relationship between road accidents and hourly traffic
flow.” Acid. Anal. Prev. 14, 19-44.
Garber, N.J., Ehrhart, A.A. (2000). “Effects of speed, flow and geometric
characteristics on crash frequency for two-lane highways.” Transport. Res.
Rec. 1717, 76-83.
Garber, N.J., Gadiraju, R. (1990). “Factors influencing speed variance and its
influence on accidents.” Transport. Res. Rec. 1213, 64-71.
Martin, J.-L. (2002). “Relationship between crash rate and hourly traffic flow on
interurban motorways.” Accid. Anal. Prev. 34, 619-629.
Thomas F. Golob, Wilfred W. Recker and Veronica M. Alvarez (2004). “Freeway
safety as a function of traffic flow.” Accid. Anal. PREV. 36, 933-946.
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The Emergency Decision Support Platform of Urban Rail Transit Based on

Information Sharing and Digitalized Plan

Ming ZHANG1, Ping LI2 and Fuzhang WANG3

1
Institute of Computing Technologies, China Academy of Railway Sciences,
P.O.BOX 100081, Beijing, No.2 Daliushu Road, Haidian District; PH (86)10-
51893206; email:zm_zhangming@hotmail.com
2
Research Center for Intelligent Systems, China Academy of Railway Sciences
3
Institute of Computing Technologies, China Academy of Railway Sciences

ABSTRACT
This paper explores an efficient solution for emergency management of
urban rail transit to improve the capability of information collection and decision
making. Aiming to achieve effective directions in accident background, this paper
builds information sharing through integrating independent supervisory systems.
Another crucial technology is adaptive digitalized planning based on ontology
strategy and resource deployment of GIS application. Acknowledge description
matched with semantics is applied to a searching algorithm to achieve rescue
schema that is suitable for current incident features. An emergency decision support
platform is developed, including functions of emergency duty, supervision alarm,
resource management, commanding, evaluation, and drill. It solves technological
difficulties in communication transmission and dynamic cross-systems interaction
through information sharing, allowing conveniently amended schema according to
accident situation changes. The implementation proves effective in emergency
decision making and treatment tracking.

INTRODUCTION
Relative separated space, crowded passengers, and complicated equipment
increase the possibility of accidents in Urban Rail Transit (URT). These factors
could in turn be caused by equipment failure and natural disasters. Accidents and
loss of life could especially occur because of the randomness, dissemination, and
diffusivity of these factors within the urban rail network. Safety greatly depends
upon disaster preparedness and emergency measures. To date, the integrated
supervision and control system (ISCS) has been installed in stations to monitor
running situation of equipment and alarms when malfunctions occur (Fuzhang,
2006), (Ming, 2007). On each rail line the ISCS can deal with simple faults or run
with them based on its self-fitness performance. However, it is difficult to deal with
information collection, decision making, and resource deployment. An efficient
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emergency plan and a well-integrated information setup is urgently required in the

event of a disaster (Zografos, 2008). To meet these challenges, a platform aiming at
information sharing and decision support is presented in this paper.

INFORMATION CLASSIFICATION
The characters of information related to emergency in URT are diverse
because of multiple resource channels. Classification is chief strategy that constructs
a link of attributes within the knowledge net that types and within which controls are
hidden. An important provider, the URT maintains an alarm abnormal situations like
fires, signal faults, and power cuts. Adopting monitors pertinently can provide
adequate supervision in danger zones and facilities. This can be reliably done by
installing sensory devices. It can be classified into three types: Emergency plans
contains rescue procedures for typical accidents, regarded as execution rules.
Infrastructure points to features of location, quantity, space structure, distribution,
and relations of transfer between rail lines. Rescue resource describes personnel and
equipment involved rescue, e.g. experts and hospitals.

PLATFORM ARCHITECTURE
Information sharing between all kinds of special systems serve as an
important tool to achieve rescue efficiency. Furthermore, making decisions in urgent
circumstances requires excellent performance in information processing, searching
and reasoning. This is necessary if a plan has to be drawn quickly, accurately and
reasonably. Therefore an Emergency Decision Support Platform (EDSP) is
established.
Emergency management organization. EDSP can be separated into three
management layers, corresponding to the URT organization (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Emergency organization of URT.

The emergency center is in charge of all URT lines in the top layer, and also
commands Operation Control Center (OCC). OCC authorizes trains scheduling and
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stations in certain region or rail line in the middle layer. Supervisory systems in
station are installed to provide equipment on a basic level. Rescue tasks will,
especially, be executed according to schema provided by top layer. Since the basic
level is mainly responsible for sustaining and updating data, OCC is required to visit
EDSP by explorer but just workstation stalled in. Therefore, coordination is a core
necessity for EDSP to ensure that the three layers are linked by internal
communication network, and end of mobile interacts with any layer through public
wireless net. Users in top layer and middle layer can operate respective applications
by self LAN.
Components relations. EDSP builds in distributed structure, in which
enterprise server and storage devices are used to integrate specific data, application
and services for transaction together. The integral frame could be described in six
layers: network, system hardware, data integration, information processing,
application, and desktop (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. Multi-layers structure of EDSP.

Network and hardware. EDSP adopts a double net to attain reliability of
transmission. Excellent servers of application and GIS in high available mode can
insure superior flexibility and dependability.
Data resource and processing. Crucial data includes real-time data, historical
data, and transfer data from different systems. The composite data is collected and
disposed into a united format in United Information Processing system (UIP) to
meet for respective application in EDSP.
Application service. Common applications offer GIS map query, remote
video meeting, CCTV, and information release. The CCTV system screens video
images of the station hall or entrance in order to collect the scene in real time.
Information release system provides notification and reports while accident is
happening, and also acts as a reliable application service for daily forecast. As for
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special emergency application performances on normal procedures, a relative

independent node is extracted to assign different roles. This allows for the
modification of certain information. The nodes possess previous or succinct relations
to secure exactness of procedure continuity for respective users.
Subsystems and function. The special subsystems are described as follows:
Supervision and forecast. Static data will be collected from supervisory
systems (such as SCADA, FAS etc.) for decision making. It also supervises potential
dangers and crucially protected facilities, e.g. flammable material or gasoline from
nearby stations.
Emergency duty. It keeps watch in turns for 7*24 hours and arranges duty. It
is important that accident reports will be produced in a certain module and be
required to automatically inform relevant personnel, through message, telephone or
fax.
Resource management. Multi-model search and statistics serve as a
prerequisite for deployment of rescue resources based on visualized query in GIS
(Zerger, 2003), (Morin, 2000) and real-time locating through GPRS linking.
Emergency commanding. In view of separated continuous emergency stages
it is necessary to build a workflow management to achieve automatic execution,
attributing to chain of stages driven by exterior engine in appropriate time
Analysis and evaluation. It finishes investigation report and certain
evaluation indexes like disposal efficiency will be calculated by comparing to
corresponding rules. Analysis results are compiled as cases to study and reuse.

CRUCIAL TECHNOLOGIES IN EDSP

Information sharing. Considering data from all sorts of independent
systems, UIP is built to solve the problem.
Semantic description of information. Information needs to be applied to
special applications since it has distinct expression in control systems. Ontology is
treated as a concept model to describe relations among concepts and their semantics,
which explicates content by formalization (Xiaoliang, 2007). Therefore, the
approach is introduced to offer common comprehension by identifying glossary to
establish information standardization.
Standardization for object discrimination. Data derived from reproduction or
transfer often influences parameters and directs processing to accord with operation
logic. The application ontology would be to first organize for coordination and
relevancy analysis, on the basis of logical reasoning of an ontology axiom. The
fetched universal concepts are translated to fields sharing. Configuration and
standardization is needed, oriented to semantic, so systems or roles related to
emergency operation could be defined data models based on ontology expression
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and data semantic mutual handle. As a result, comprehended semantic description of

mutual sharing could be attained.
Technical strategy for information sharing. With large scale processing and
higher throughput, UIP defines XML as standard format to exchange data to secure
transmission reliability through introducing a message queue that disposes
information when moving data from origination to destination. It supplies delivering,
collecting, and routing for data in order to realize application integration. The
prominent performance lies in obviating differences in hardware, database, message,
and communication protocol. This determines convenient and swift correspondence
abilities between applications. (see Figure 3)

Figure 3. Principle of UIP.

Digitalized plan modeling. To date, an emergency plan for managing typical
accidents built beforehand cannot meet for request of disaster background, because
treatment depends much on layout and resource of the scene. Consequently,
intelligent decision is used to establish schema based on digitalized plan technology
and GIS information, which effectively enhance practicability.
The primary work is to take the pre-plan into parts and identify key factors.
Define generation A = {a1 , a2 ,L} includes start condition, principle, range, etc.
Constraints B = {b1 , b2 ,L} include control grade, mapping, location like station hall or
platform. Response procedure C = {c1, c2 ,L} represents emergency workflow (Daniel,
2005). D = {d1, d 2 ,L} means measure and domination. E = {e1 , e2 ,L} refers to
rebuilding. Organization F = { f1 , f 2 ,L} points to personnel, financing, and affiliated
agents. Termination affair = G {g1 , g 2 ,L} is ending condition.
Incident O= {a , b , g , c ,d ,f} includes type, place, effect, damage, and executed
measures. A key word list Keyword (list ) = {k1 ,L , k i ,L} is defined for the respective
search vocabulary (Li, 2008).
The algorithm of hierarchical parallel search that shrinks search bound
gradually in definite layers based on constraints is introduced. At first, a plan is
mapped to match a current accident according to condition. Next, specific content is
filtrated by matching accident details like responsibility, available material, in which
constraints should contain response mode and grade. Finally, parameters are
calculated by h = Simlarity( S a (ka ) ® Sb ) , means searching ka of collection S a in Sb .
h = 1 where matched factor is found, else h = 0 , when searching index points to each
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factor in the resource pool. Constraint is as follows:

Coherence h (a ® A) = 1 , h ((b ® B ) Ú (g ® B ) Ú (d ® B )) = 1 , h ((d ® A) Ú (d ® B )) = 1 .
Relevancy h (c ® C ) = 1 , h (c ® D ) = 1 , h (a ® D ) = 1 . The candidate schema is expressed
by Plan = {C Ú D Ú E Ú F } . In addition, continuous information collection sustains
treatment tracking and feedback to modify schema.
Resource collocation based on GIS. The candidate schema needs to be
amended through adding resource allocation in detail. The resource features are
summarized as X = {x1, x2 , L, xn } , including property, location of agent, cover zone,
rescue ability, quantities, etc. Resources are divided into those that are freely
dispatching and those that are immobile. The former points to its position and
dispatching route could be changed conveniently, e.g. rescue equipment in station,
the latter refers to those can be only deployed in certain mode, e.g. train in vehicles
yard. In emergency operation, the area is treated as direct region, which covers 500
meters, s = Dis (b , x) set distance between spot b and resource u (x) .
Priority grade = 1 where (s £ 500) Ù (s £ x ) indicates it belongs to chosen resource, else
priority grade = 2 where (500 £ s £ 1000) Ù (s £ x ) , which means it lies indirectly in a
rescue region but still could be chosen. How to match the spot location is an
essential step for Immobility resource. Define priority grade(h (c ® (xa , xb )) = 1) refers
to relative priority of xa to xb . The resource is in reasonable range but has no
affiliation to the nearest department where grade(s £ xc ) , which would be also chosen
as an available resource.
To sum up, elicited content information is gathered and replaced to produce
schema Plan = {(C Ú D Ú E Ú F ) ® X (È xi )} . In our project, GIS interacts with other
special applications based on information share. EDSP shows distribution of
resource and risk zones on a map. This allows users to seek routes that allow rescue
teams to reach the scene using the shortest possible path or arriving within the
shortest possible time. Data is also assessed to analyze the impacted region and the
accident buffer zone.

IMPLEMENTATION
Our project establishes basic EDSP for certain cities in China which integrate
existing supervisory systems for information sharing and realize essential functions
of emergency request of the URT. The commanding subsystem is shown in Figure 4.
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Figure 4. Commanding subsystem of EDSP.

The workflow engine is employed to control procedure nodes that include
alarm report, information collection, emergency response, alert notification, schema
establishment, resource collocation, and execution. A fire incident in transfer station
was simulated and EDSP was started to deal with emergency. Stations belonging to
Line 2 of URT is picked up as the station layer and this provides video and monitor
data. The resource in the range of 500 meters near the scene is automatically
collected and nearest available resource is identified and shows up in the GIS map,
e.g. rescue route of medical team, public hub, and distributing center for large scale
passengers. Dynamic read data in accident development is designed to scan reports
every 5 minutes. Once it sends out an alarm, the degree of urgency is judged to start
the required response.. The produced schema contains a passenger evacuation plan,
dispatches vehicles, and allocates resources. The plans are delivered in electric
sheet to OCC and stations to use on a priority basis. According to the user, the
system is useful because of perfect integration with practical operations and can
contribute effectively in the event of a disaster.

CONCLUSION
The platform starts appropriate processing in the event of an accident and
produces a feasible digitized plan by applying intelligent searching and resource
allocation. The result verifies performance of interaction among components and
information sharing. However, reliance among multiple subsystems creates certain
limits because of strict consistency of fundamental data. Therefore it is necessary to
further study optimizing read data and algorithms. Trend forecasts could also be
applied to prevent secondary disasters by constructing a model of happen and
development within the incident background.

REFERENCES
Daniel, S. Kaster, Claudia, B. Medeiros., Heloisa, V. Rocha. (2005). “Supporting
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modeling and problem solving from precedent experiences: the role of

workflows and case-based reasoning.” Environmental Modeling and
Software, 20, 689-704.
Fuzhang, W., Liyan Z., Ping L. (2006). “The framework of urban mass transit
intelligent integration supervision and control system.” China railway
science, 27(1), 126-132.
Li, C., Jie, W., Jing, M. (2008). “Research of domain Knowledge search based on
ontology.” Computer Engineering, 34(24), 49-51.
Ming, Z., Ruihua, X. (2007). “Design and implementation of intelligent emergency
management system for urban rail transit in Shanghai.” International
Conference on Transportation Engineering, Chengdu, ASCE, 2693-2698.
Morin, M., Jenvald, J., Thorstensson, M. (2000). “Computer-supported visualization
of rescue operations.” Safety Science, 35, 3-27.
Xiaoliang, W., Xilang L. (2007). “Fuzzy retrieval in case-based reasoning systems.”
Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 41(11), 1783-1787.
Zerger, A., Smith, D. I. (2003). “Impediments to using GIS for real-time disaster
decision support.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 27, 123-
141.
Zografos, K.G., Androutsopoulos, K.N. (2008). “A decision support system for
integrated hazardous materials routing and emergency response
decisions.” Transportation Research, Part C, 16(6), 684-703.
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Statistical Simulation for Modeling Crash Count Data

Perla E. REYES 1, and Xiao QIN 2

1
Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706; email:
preyes@wisc.edu
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, South Dakota State University,
Brookings, SD 57007; email: Xiao.Qin@sdstate.edu (corresponding author)

ABSTRACT
Many models and statistical techniques have been proposed in transportation
literature to model crash count data. Although there has been some effort to compare and
evaluate crash model performance, most of the results are difficult to generalize because
they focus on a real datasets. It is argued that a common ground to compare techniques
for accident modeling need to be defined. A statistical simulation is proposed to serve
this purpose, not only because the known model used to simulate data is an ideal point of
comparison, but also because the flexibility of the technique.
Artificial hot spots, i.e. sites whose crash intensity is higher than the one
expected for sites with similar known features, were created as part of the simulation.
The simulation used Negative Binomial (NB) regression mean estimate, NB Empirical
Bayesian (EB) estimate, and Pearson regression residuals to rank sites and to identify
hot spots. The results show that only a small fraction of the artificial sites can be
successfully identified regardless of the methodologies and Pearson regression residuals
lead to the best results.
INTRODUCTION
Most crash count modeling strategies focus on two objectives (1) identify the
statistically significant sites’ characteristics as well as their effect on the number of
crashes; and (2) identify hot spots or hazardous locations.
Miranda-Moreno, et al. (2005), Lord & Park (2008), Miaou & Lord (2003),
Mitra & Washington (2006), Geedipally & Lord (2008), El-Basyouny & Sayed (2006),
Cheng & Washington (2008), among others have analyze and compared a wide selection
of crash modeling strategies: several functional forms to relate known information to the
expected number of crashes, a variety of structures to account for data over-dispersion,
and different ranking techniques to identify hazardous sites. All cited papers have one
thing in common; the analysis was based on modeling real data and the users were
generally advised to use the results with cautions because of the data limitations.
Using real data as the only source to compare a variety of models has two main
disadvantages: (1) the “correct” model form and the true value of the parameters are
unknown, so it is impossible to determine which of the proposed modeling efforts is the
closest to the truth; (2) since there is only one set of data, we cannot experiment with
deviations from this reality to see which contending technique produces the best
outcome under alternative circumstances. That is probably why model validation

 
 
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techniques, such as using a new dataset to test against a model developed via training
dataset is not commonly applied in the safety literature.
To overcome these disadvantages, a widely applied technique is to perform a
statistical simulation study, which consists of simulating under a set of assumptions a
hypothetical dataset and applying all the techniques to that dataset, evaluating the
individual performances according to established criteria. With a simulated dataset, the
“correct” structure of the data is actually known because it can be constructed in any
fashion, which gives researches a fair baseline to evaluate the performance of existing or
proposed techniques.
Some efforts have been made in previous research involving simulation studies,
but they only focused on a piece of the crash modeling and hot spot identification puzzle.
For instance, Zhang et al. (2007), Lord et al. (2008) and Lord (2006) assessed the
performance of the parameter estimation while Cheng et al. (2005) evaluated hot spot
identification methodologies along with various ranking techniques. The objective of
this research is to provide the traffic safety researchers and practitioners with a tool to
evaluate different crash prediction models on fair ground.
GENERAL MODEL
Let Yi be the number of crashes at the i-th location.
Yi i  Poisson(i) (1)
This usual distributional assumption allows for some of the randomness
associated with the process. Additionally, across crash count modeling literature several
formats have been proposed to model and estimate i. They can be reformulated in the
following general format,
i = f (Xi;) (Zi;) (2)
where f (Xi;) a possibly unknown function of the known covariates Xi and a set of
unknown parameters  that represents the effect of the available information on the
mean i. (Zi;) a structural representation of an error term that considers the over-
dispersion structure and possibly omitted covariates; it could be a function of an
additional or augmented set of covariates Zi and an unknown set of parameters .
Both f and  can be characterized by a smooth function, a random variable (with
an attached distribution) or a combination. Xi, , Zi and  form part of functions,
parameters and hyper-parameters of assumed distributions. In the following sections
commonly used models are presented according to the Equation 2.
Traffic safety literature usually defines a Poisson-gamma model for Yi number of
crashes at the i-th location, as Equation 1 with
i = exp{ Xi}exp{i} (3)
Where exp{i} ~ Gamma(a,b) (4)
To specify a negative binomial model assume
(Zi;)= exp{i}~ Gamma(;) (5)
In order to achieve the usual parameterizations of this model, i.e. E(yi) = f (Xi;)
= μi and Var(yi) = (1+1/) μi.

 
 
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Sometimes  can be further parameterized if it is replaced by (Zi;) a function

depending on some set of known variables Zi and unknown parameters .
STATISTICAL SIMULATION
Statistical simulations are like any other scientific experiment in the sense that
they are a tool to test a proposed hypothesis. Hence, the starting point must be to
establish the hypothesis to be tested. For instance, is a model or methodology producing
the expected results? Is it behaving reasonably well when the input data deviates from
what is required?
Most statistical simulations usually involve comparing two or more techniques
under a set of hypothetical situations, in general the following decisions need to be made
to proceed.
(1) Define the hypothetical structure to be considered as the “real world” for the
simulation and how to produce data under this hypothetical set up.
(2) Establish how to apply the techniques under testing.
(3) Define a set of indicators to measure the performance of the contesting
approaches.
(4) Create a dataset following step 1, apply techniques from step 2, and compute the
indicators in step 3.
(5) Repeat step 4 several times and average the values of the indicators across
iterations to obtain a conclusion less affected by randomness.
Usually 100 replications are sufficient for most statistical simulations. Though, if
the value of the indicators change drastically from repetition to repetition, as many as
10,000 iterations may be necessary. On the other hand, computation intensity may mean
that 100 replications require a lot of computing time; 10 or 20 simulations might be
enough for these situations.
The main difference between what researchers and practitioners do every day
and a statistical simulation is the creation of an artificial dataset following the
specifications of step 1. After that, the artificial dataset can be analyzed as a real one
with the advantage that the results obtained can be compared not only across techniques,
but also with the correct values which are known.
For the reason stated above the discussion is focused on defining the hypothetical
structure of the artificial data. To facilitate the description of the process and to stay on
the actual crash count research trend, the general model by Equation 1 and 2 was
followed. For f (Xi;) an f function or link function need to be considered such as, how
many covariates Xi, how to generate them and the value of the  parameters. In a similar
way, the format of (Zi;) should be established in advance.
The study design needs to be proposed accordingly with the objectives of the
simulation. For instance, if a variable selection method is being tested, the values of yi or
i should be simulated with direct dependence on n covariates, but the analysis should
also include p extra additional covariates with no relationship with yi or i to see if the
method selects the ones that truly have an effect on yi or i. On the other hand, if testing
different link functions and their impact on the conclusions, we can simulate one set of

 
 
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data using i = f (Xi;), and then fit it, using not only f1, but also several link functions
and compare the results knowing that the correct one is f1.
It is important to point out, that although this hypothetical world can be defined
in any possible way, the closer it leans to reality, more intuitive and interpretable results
can be obtained. This will be clarified through the following case study.
CASE STUDY
An easy and more realistic way to define the hypothetical setup is to use a real
dataset as inspiration. A list of 525 intersections of Wisconsin was used as the
foundation to create hypothetical datasets as close as possible to them. The 525
intersections are a short subset of the entire state highway system, selected for
information collection because of their high crash frequency: intersections with at least
three crashes in rural areas or five crashes in urban areas in any one year between 1998
and 2000. Geometric characteristics available for each intersection are number of
approach legs (LEGS), number of lanes per major approach (LANES), the presence of
median or division (DIVIDED), the presence of a left-turn lane (LEFT) and annual
entering vehicles (ENV) in millions.

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics Intersection Type.

LEGS LANES DIV LEFT Obs (%) Mean SdDev Min Max Mean SdDev
3 2 No No 4 0.76 5.66 1.81 3.39 7.72 3 1.83
3 2 No Yes 4 0.76 5.5 0.79 4.53 6.46 2.25 1.71
3 4 No No 7 1.33 8.82 4.07 5.66 16.68 7.43 5.09
3 4 Yes Yes 25 4.76 10.98 5.94 3.36 23.11 7.12 5.68
4 2 No No 29 5.52 5.55 1.38 2.05 8.54 4.14 2.81
4 2 No Yes 85 16.19 6.52 1.79 2.26 11.31 6.11 4.01
4 4 No No 55 10.48 6.68 2.41 3.25 19.79 7.15 3.85
4 4 Yes Yes 316 60.19 10.66 4.27 1.2 29.96 10.13 7.04
Table 1 shows some statistics of the dataset for each combination of
geographical characteristics. As it can be observed both ENV and the number of crashes
changed from type to type not only in magnitude, but also in range. Therefore, the
characteristics of the intersection need to be considered to create an artificial set that
look like the Wisconsin data. For this purpose, a negative binomial model was fitted
assuming the following link function,
μi = f (Xi; ) = ENVexp{0+1(LEGS=3) + 2(LANE=2) + 3(DIVIDED=NO) +
4(LEFT=NO)} (6)
The obtained values for the covariates are 0=0.0254, 1 = 0.304, 2 = 0.2052,
3= 0.1615, 4 = 0 and an overdispersion parameter= 5.36.
Each simulated dataset was obtained by first creating 525 sites with
approximately the same proportion of locations of each type. A replication of a
multinomial with the same structure of the third column of Table 1 was used for this
purpose.

 
 
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For each of the 525 sites an ENV is assigned by generating a value distributed as
the ENV of the same cell on the Wisconsin data. Such value is generated by setting ENV
= F -1(u), where u is a random number following uniform [0, 1] distribution, and F -1(.) is
the inverse of the empirical cumulative distribution function of the desired distribution.
The validity of the approach is covered on Mathematical Statistics by Bickel and
Doksum (2001).
With the simulated set of covariates, μi is computed according with the link
function defined by Equation 6 and the parameters obtained from the model fitted to the
real data. Independently i is generated following the distribution of error structure,
i =(Zi;)= ii (7)
where i~ Gamma(;) will produce a commonly assumed negative binomial marginal
distribution with  set to 5.36 for the Wisconsin data; i, another random variable, was
used to produce artificial hot spots by inflating the mean. i represents the unknown
factor or characteristic that is causing some sites to have a mean larger than expected for
a typical site sharing the same characteristics.
i is assumed to follow P(i =)= where  can be interpreted as the %of mean
increment and  as the percentage of artificial hot spots in the dataset. For the simulation,
 = 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, and 1.5,  = 0.05, 0.10. Finally, a crash count is simulated following a
Poisson distribution with mean i = μii
RANKING TECHNIQUES AND INDICATOR
For this simulation three different estimates are used to rank the list of sites.
 Negative binomial regression estimate i fitted assuming the model of Equation
6.
 Negative Binomial Empirical Bayesian (EB) estimate

*i  y i wi  i (1  wi ) (8)
   
where wi  i /(  i ) and   is the estimate of the overdispersion parameter.
 Negative binomial regression Pearson residuals

y i  i
ei   (9)
 i2
i  

The purpose of the simulation is not to evaluate the accurate estimation of a
individual parameter, but rather to assess: (1) if the site’s rank assigned by each
technique coincides with the one based on the true mean; and (2) the flexibility of the
hot spot identification tools to find large means not only in general, but also when an
unmeasured variable is producing a higher crash frequency. The indicators are suggested
is the number of correctly identified artificial hot spots created during the simulation to
represent sites whose larger crash counts are due to unmeasured factors. It is used to
evaluate the flexibility of the applied techniques to identify these hazardous sites.

 
 
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RESULTS
100 simulated datasets according with the above specifications were generated,
fitted and ranked. The rankings are used to compute the proposed indicator, and
averaged across replications. The averages are used to contrast the ranking techniques.
Results are condensed on Table 2. Concerning the artificial hot spots it appears that
only a small fraction of the sites can be successfully identified regardless of the
methodology, which is not surprising because they are created arbitrarily by inflating the
mean crash frequency instead of using crash contributing factors. The intent is to
simulate the fact that some information may not be available or observable for the
highway safety research. Even using  only a small number of them can be correctly
selected. As expected, the larger the increment in the mean the easier it is to find the
artificial hot spots. Although the EB estimate has a better chance of selecting them,
using the sites with largest Pearson residuals produces the largest number of true
positives. In this context, sites that could be considered outliers for their large residual
sometimes can be sources of additional and probably valuable information.

Table 2. Average Number Of Artificial Hot Spots Correctly Identified (100

replications).
Proportion of Hot Spots ( ) 0.05 0.1
Mean Increment () 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5
Rank by y i 1.86 2.23 2.73 3.75 6.51 7.73 9.29 11.95
i 1.9 2.34 2.89 3.75 6.44 7.98 9.37 12.81

i 1.38 1.29 1.4 1.17 5.34 5.1 5 5.06
*i 1.67 2.09 2.45 3.14 6.29 7.26 8.33 10.57
ei 1.82 2.47 3.43 5.39 6.94 8.9 10.98 14.72
# of Aritificial Hot Spots 26 26 26 26 53 53 53 53

CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH

In this study, a general setup to conduct statistical simulations for crash count
analysis is presented and exemplified in the context of hazardous site or hot spot
identification to demonstrate its value not only as a research tool, but also as an
analytical tool. Researchers could take advantage of the flexibility of a simulation set up
to test new methodologies and to identify areas of opportunity for those already under
constant use. Practitioners may use statistical simulations to gain a deeper understanding
of the techniques they use every day and more importantly to test the magnitude of the
effect that the assumptions made might have on their conclusions.
However, Statistical simulations have the disadvantage that they are difficult to
conduct, they take a long time to plan; and some expertise with a programming language
is required. We believe that their flexibility and the richness of their conclusions
overcome the disadvantages in comparison to similar techniques. For instance, bootstrap
or other resampling methodologies using real data are easier to conduct in the sense that
there is much less planning to do, but they have the same drawback of directly modeling

 
 
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a particular dataset, the lack of a known “true value” to use as a level of comparison
between results.
The case study presented showed a couple of aspects that can be evaluated using
statistical simulations. The crash count process is a very complex one. The statistical
simulation set up introduced in this paper was constructed to consider that complexity.
At the same time, it was design to allow small or large modifications to adjust to
investigate other aspects of the process. From varying coefficients to mixed distributions,
including accuracy of parameter estimation when model assumptions are violated and
impact of biased estimates. One specific topic of interest for actual and future research is
functional form or link function selection and the effect of an inadequate selection,
which has not been evaluated using a simulation.
REFERENCES
Bickel, P. J., and K. A. Doksum (2001). Mathematical Statistics: Basic Ideas and
Selected Topics Vol. I. 2nd Edition, Prentice Hall.
Cheng, W., and S. P. Washington (2008). New Criteria for Evaluating Methods of
Identifying Hot Spots. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the
Transportation Research Board, No. 2083, pp. 76-85.
Cheng, W., and S. P. Washington(2005). Experimental evaluation of hotspot
identification methods. Accident Analysis and Prevention 37, pp. 870-871.
El-Basyouny, K., and T. Sayed (2006). Comparison of Two Negative Binomial
Regression Techniques in Developing Accident Prediction Models.
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board,
No. 1950, pp. 9-16.
Geedipally, S. R., and D. Lord (2008). Effects of Varying Dispersion Parameter of
Poisson-Gamma Models on Estimation of Confidence Intervals of Crash
Prediction Models. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the
Transportation Research Board, No. 2061, pp. 46-54.
Lord, D., and P. Y. J. Park (2008). Investigating the effects of the fixed and varying
dispersion parameters of Poisson-gamma models on empirical Bayes estimates.
Accident Analysis and Prevention 40, pp. 1441-1457.
Lord, D., and L. F. Miranda-Moreno (2008). Effects of low sample mean values and
small sample size on the estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter of Poisson-
gamma models for modeling motor vehicle crashes: A Bayesian perspective.
Safety Science 46, pp. 751-770.
Lord, D. (2006) Modeling motor vehicle crashes using Poisson-gamma models:
Examining the effects of low sample mean values and small sample size on the
estimation of the fixed dispersion parameter. Accident Analysis and Prevention
38, pp. 751-766.
Miaou, S., and D. Lord (2003). Modeling Traffic Crash-Flow Relationships for
Intersections. Dispersion Parameter, Functional Form, and Bayes Versus
Empirical Bayes Methods. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the
Transportation Research Board, No. 1840, pp. 31-40.

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 302
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Miranda-Moreno, L.F., L. Fu, F. F. Saccomanno, and A. Labee (2005). Alternative Risk

Models for Ranking Locations for Safety Improvement. Transportation Research
Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1908, pp. 1-8.
Mitra, S., and S. Washington (2006). On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle
crash prediction models. Accident Analysis and Prevention 39, pp. 459-468.
Zhang, Y., Z. Ye, and D. Lord (2007). Estimating Dispersion Parameter of Negative
Binomial Distribution for Analysis of Crash Data. Bootstrapped Maximum
Likelihood Method. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the
Transportation Research Board, No. 2019, pp. 15-21.

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 303
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The Impact Analysis of the Urban Highway Traffic Incidents on FCD

Rui SUN1, Jing LIU2, Jianping SUN,3 and Jizheng GUAN4

1
Beijing STONE Intelligent Transportation System Integration CO., LTD, Floor 5,
No.14, Zhaojunmiao, Haidian District, Beijing, China; PH (86)010-62116979; FAX
(86)010-62124578; email: sun.ray.rui@gmail.com
2
Beijing STONE Intelligent Transportation System Integration CO., LTD, Floor 5,
No.14, Zhaojunmiao, Haidian District, Beijing, China; PH (86)010-62116979; FAX
(86)010-62124578; email: Liujing1324@163.com
3
Beijing Transportation Research Center, Floor 4, No.9, BeibinheRoad, Xuanwu
District, Beijing, China; PH (86)010-63372641; FAX (86)010-63372715;
email:sunjp@bjtrc.org.cn
4
Beijing STONE Intelligent Transportation System Integration CO., LTD, Floor 5,
No.14, Zhaojunmiao, Haidian District, Beijing, China; PH (86)010-62113969; FAX
(86)010-62124578; email: gjz@sits.com.cn

ABSTRACT
Future traffic information (i.e. speed, traveling time) can be predicted through
analyzing former floating car data (FCD). However, a significant deviation of the
forecast usually occurs due to traffic incidents. In order to study the impact on traffic
caused by incidents, this article sampled the incidents of the highways of a certain
area in Beijing to analyze the alterations of FCD and the impact of the occuring time,
location, and the local traffic condition on the characteristics of the traffic incidents.
Both qualitative and quantitative analyses were applied to analyze the speed decline
of the floating car caused by the incidents, impact road length, and impact duration
of the incidents. The article concluded that local traffic conditions plays a key role in
speed decline and the occurring time effects impact duration and speed decline.

INTRODUCTION
With the application of the floating car technology in the Intelligent
Transportation System (ITS), floating car data (FCD) has been a major data source to
monitor traffic status. Real-time traffic status could be obtained based on FCD.
Moreover, the future traffic information (i.e. speed, traveling time) can be predicted
through analyzing former FCD. However, a significant deviation of the forecast
usually occurs due to traffic incidents. This will, in turn, mislead travelers about
traffic status. Correspondingly, incorrect decisions regarding trip choices will be
made by travelers impairing the role of the traffic forecast in alleviating traffic
congestion. Therefore, it is important to study the impact of incidents on traffic and
analyze the alteration and evolution of the FCD during the incidents. This could help
us accurately forecast the future traffic information and fully play the role of the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 304
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traffic forecaster.
Based on the above considerations, this study sampled the typical incidents of
the highways of a certain area in Beijing to analyze the alteration of FCD on the
upstream and downstream when there were incidents. In the article, three indexes
were chosen to measure the impacts of the incidents. These are: the speed decline of
the floating car caused by the incidents, the impact road length, and the impact
duration of the incidents. The study focused on analyzing the effects of the incident
occurring time, the incident location, and the local traffic condition based on the
above three indexes. Finally, the influence of each factor on the three indexes of the
incidents’ impact was summarized.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Many studies on the incidents’ impacts have been done. The following
summarizes the main research results.
Zhang, G. B., et al. (2008) analyzed the public events’ impact on traffic delay.
The authors selected a congested event as the research objectto discuss the events’
impact on the urban transportation system using traffic engineering, system
engineering, and network analysis theories. The authors also proposed the index and
arithmetic of traffic delay caused by the congested event in urban transportation
system based on the traffic flow theories, wave theories, and delay analysis. In the
end the paper simulated and analyzed the process of the events’ impact on the delay
of transportation system using micro-simulation transport analysis software.
Liu et al.(2003) analyzed the incident effect of freeways using traffic dynamic
approach. The formulations of the queuing rates, discharging rate, total delay, total
travel time etc. under the incidental congestion were derived. The authors also
compared the traffic dynamics approach with deterministic queuing analysis. The
study results demonstrated that the dynamic algorithm was accurate in the incidental
congestion.
Zhang, H. J. et al.(2008) analyzed and simulated the traffic state on
expressways during incidents. The authors disassembled the process of local traffic
state during the incidents and analyzed the capacity in each phase. The affecting
factors of the capacity, including blocked width, incident position, travelling order
and upstream traffic volume, were induced to incident feature. Finally the authors
simulated the typical situation that the closure of some lanes caused by incidents.
Simulation results showed that the traffic delay increased quickly after the closure,
and till the lanes were re-opened, the delay started to decrease. Some fluctuations
may have appeared in the whole process; when traffic volume approached capacity,
traffic system became so weak that traffic congestion would spread to a large area
and last for a long time once incidents happened.
Wang et al. (2005) reviewed the research results in the incident duration
analysis. The theoretical argument of the distribution of the incident duration was
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explained. Several methods used to analyze the incident durations, including

variance analysis, regression, nonparametric regression, decision tree, hazard
duration, and fuzzy logic, were described. The research concluded that the
distribution of the incident duration is right skewed and that standardization of the
data collection is important for the incident duration analysis. It was also found that
the traditional statistic methods have difficulties in modeling the incident duration
with the incomplete incident data. Future research in incident duration analysis such
as artificial intelligence methods and standardization of data collection was
recommended.
Chen et al. (2003) analyzed the average travel time and travel time
variability on Interstate 5 in Los Angeles to measure freeway performance. The paper
evaluated the incidents’ impact on the mean and variance of travel time quantitatively.
The authors found that both the standard deviation and the median of the travel time
are larger when there are incidents. The results showed that incidents have a
measurable effect on travel time – the cost of incidents is about 5 minutes per
incident per vehicle for the studied corridor.

DATA COLLECTION
The area of the data collection
This study is a component of the project named “The Model of Urban Road
Network Dynamic Evaluation and Forecast”. The area of the study is consistent with
that in this project. The area in the blue dotted line in Figure 1 is the area for this
study. The area located in the north-west of Beijing, including the parts of the 2nd
Ring Rd and the 3rd Ring Rd, Xizhimen North Street, Xiwai Street, Chegongzhuang
Street, Dewai Street etc., which are important corridors.

Figure 1. The studied area.

Incidents data
This study only focused on the incidents which took place on the highway,
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because of the intrinsic fluctuation of FCD. FCD of the other types of road except
highways fluctuated so widely that it was difficult to distinguish the incidents’ impact
from the normal fluctuation through the alteration of FCD. This study collected 56
incidents on the highway in the research area, which had FCD in the period of the
incidents. All incidents happened from July to October of 2008.
Limited by the instruments of the data collection, the authors could not obtain
some of the basic information about the incidents, such as the severity, the type of
incidents, etc. The lack of this information obviously affected the accuracy of impact
analysis of the incidents. However, it is difficult to obtain these basic incidents
message in the present Automatic Incident Detection and our national traffic
conditions. However, it is useful to explore the impacts of incidents on traffic despite
the lack of some incident information since this could improve the accuracy of the
forecast. The authors only got the following three aspects of the information about
the incidents: the occurring time, the incident location, and the FCD in the period of
the incidents.

Distribution of the incidents

Figure 2 illustrates the time and space distribution of all collected incidents.
Time and Space Distribution of All Collected Incidents

Outer 3rd Ring Rd

Inner 3rd Ring Rd

Location

Outer 2nd Ring Rd

Inner 2nd Ring Rd

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time (hour)

Figure 2. Distribution of Incidents.

In the figure, horizontal axis represents the occurring time of the incidents, vertical
axis represents the location of the incidents, and every blue star point represents one
incident. The characteristics of incidents distribution can be acquired from the figure.
The majority of incidents took place between 14:00 and 23:00. The number of
incidents occurring on the inner 2nd Ring Rd was maximum, and the number of
incidents happening on the other three roads had no significant difference.

Impact analysis of incident on speed

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 307
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This study has been based on available data from present data collection
systems of floating car. As we all know, floating car system divided the road network
into a number of segments. These segments are the basic units for research using
FCD. Therefore, these segments are also the basic units for this study.
The capacity of the segment rapidly decreases when there are incidents. The
traffic bottleneck that is formed could lead to the speed decline in the
incident-occurred segment and the upstream. At the same time, the reduction of
vehicles to the downstream caused by the incident induces a rise in speed on the
downstream. Figure 3 and Figure 4 respectively illustrate the typical impacts on
speed change of the upstream and downstream caused by the incident.

80
Average Speed Alteration of No. 1-001 Incident
70

60
Average Speed (km/h)

50

40

30
Occurence
20 Upstream 1
Upstream 2
10 Upstream 3
Upstream 4
0
5
0

0
5

0
5

5
0
5

0
5
0

5
0

0
5

0
5

5
0

5
:2

:0
:0
:1
:1
:2
:2
:3
:3
:4
:4
:5
:5
:0
:0
:1
:1
:2

:3
:3
:4
:4
:5
:5
11
11

11

11
11

12
12

12
12

12
12

13
11
11

11
11

11
11

12
12

12

12
12

12 Time

Figure 3. Impacts on the upstream caused by the incident.

Figure 3 illustrates the alteration of the speed on the incident-occurred

segment and the upstream before and after the No.1-001 incident. The larger
upstream number in the figure represents the longer distance between the
incident-occurred segment and the upstream. Figure 3 shows that the speed of the
incident-occurred segment began to decrease at 11:25, the lowest speed occurred at
11:40, then speed slowly increased. The speed of the upstream, which is closest to
the incident-occurred segment, began to go down at 11:30 and the lowest speed
occurred at 11:45. The upstream2, 3, and 4 which are farther away from the
incident-occurred segment began to decrease at 11:35 and the values of speed decline
on these segments are obviously less. The alteration of the speed on the upstream
indicates that there was delay when incident affected the traffic of the upstream, and
the delay time is directly proportional to the distance between the upstream and the
incident-occurred segment. The value of the speed decline caused by the incident is
inversely proportional to the distance between the upstream and the
incident-occurred segment.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 308
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70
Average Speed Alteration of No. 1-110 Incident
60

Average Speed (km/h)

50

40

30

20
Occurence
Downstream 1
10
Downstream 2
Downstream 3
0
7: 5

7: 0

8: 0
8: 5
15
8: 0

8: 0
8: 5

8: 5

9: 0

9: 5
9: 0

9: 0
9: 5
40
45

10 55
7: 5

55

9: 0

9: 5
7: 0

8: 5

8: 0

8: 5

40

8: 0

9: 5

9: 0

0
0

3
3
4

5
5
0

2
3

4
5

0
0

5
4

:0
7:

8:

8:

9:

9:
9:
Time

Figure 4. Impacts on the downstream caused by incident.

Figure 4 illustrates the alteration of the speed on the incident-occurred

segment and the downstream before and after the No.1-110 incident. The expression
of the legend in Figure 4 is similar to that of Figure 3. It is observed that the speed of
the downstream transiently rose after the incident and the value of speed rise was
inversely proportional to the distance between the downstream and the
incident-occurred segment. Also, the time when the maximum of speed rise on the
downstream appeared is delayed due to the additional distance between the
downstream and the incident-occurred segment.
Usually, the speed decline of the upstream caused by the incident is easily
observed. The speed rise of the downstream caused by the incident is not always
observed. This may be related to the severity of the incident, the traffic condition,
and the surrounding road network, etc.

Effect of traffic conditions on the speed change caused by the incident

The research on the speed change caused by the incident will show us how to
amend the forecast on the speed of the upstream and downstream when an incident
occurs and this can improve the accuracy of the forecast. The specific value of the
speed change is the result of the severity of incident, the type of the incident, and the
traffic conditions. In the following, the article will discuss the effect of the traffic
condition on the speed change when an incident occurred.

Two indexes of the speed decline

The maximum speed decline is the value of speed decline on the segment
which is more than that of the other upstream and downstream. The maximum speed
decline and speed decline on the incident-occurred segment are analyzed statistically
and the results are listed in Table 1.

Table 1. The statistical results of the maximum of speed decline and speed
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 309
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decline on the incident-occurred segment.

Mean Median Std. Skewness Kurtosis
Deviation
The maximum of
speed decline 19.29 16.50 11.250 1.182 0.751
The value of speed
decline on the 15.71 12.00 10.941 1.529 1.785
incident-occurred
segment

The statistical results of mean and median in Table 1 illustrates that there is a
difference between the maximum of the speed decline and the speed decline on the
incident-occurred segment. That means that the maximum of the speed decline did
not always occur on the incident-occurred segment and this could lead to the huge
deviation of the forecast for the speed on the upstream and downstream. Therefore, it
is necessary to understand the degree and the range of the difference between the
maximum of speed decline and speed decline on the incident-occurred segment. This
promotes our cognition about deviation of the forecast. Figure 5 and Figure 6
respectively show the situation of the maximum of speed decline occurred on
upstream1 and upstream2.
Average Speed Alteration of No.2-17 Incident Average Speed Alteration of No.2-5 Incident
60 80

70
50

60
Average Speed (km/h)

Average Speed (km /h)

40
50

30 40

30
20
20
Upstream 2
10 Downstream 1 Upstream 1
Incident Impact Duration 10 Incident Impact Duration
Occurence Occurence
Upstream 1 Downstream 1
0 0
13:35 13:40 13:45 13:50 13:55 14:00 14:05 14:10 14:15 14:20 14:25 14:30 14:35 14:40 14:45 14:50 14:55 15:00 0:00 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 0:30 0:35 0:40 0:45 0:50 0:55 1:00
Time Time

Figure 5. The maximum of speed Figure 6. The maximum of speed

decline occurred on the upstream1. decline occurred on the upstream2.
The statistical results shows that there are twenty-nine incidents out of
fifty-six samples that the maximum of the speed decline does not occur on the
incident-occurred segment, which accounts for 52 percent.
The difference between the maximum of speed decline and speed decline on the
incident-occurred segment is calculated for each incident and the statistical results
are listed in Table 2. The results from Table 2 show that the statistical gap between
the two indexes is insignificant (mean is 3.57km/h, median is 0). But the maximum
which is 24km/h shows that extreme case will appear. In the next section the extreme
case will be analyzed and the effect of the traffic condition on the speed alteration
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will be analyzed qualitatively.

Table 2. Statistical results of the difference betweent two indexes.

number mean median Std. Deviation Skewness Kurtosis Range
56 3.57 0.00 5.510 1.859 3.364 24

The effect of traffic condition on speed change

The traffic condition describes the congestion of the traffic system. The traffic
condition of a segment means the congestion of a segment. The traffic condition of a
segment in this article refers specifically to the congestion of a segment when an
incident happened. The speed of the segment reflects in some degree to the traffic
condition of the segment. Therefore, in this paper, the speed of the segment when an
incident occurred was selected to represent the traffic condition of the segment and
this was assorted according to the standard for the traffic condition listed in Table 3.
Table 3. The standard for traffic conditions on highways.
Unit:(km/h)
Level of Very Mild Medial Serious
congestion smooth smooth congestion congestion congestion
Speed range >65 (50,65] (35,50] (20,35] İ20

Average Speed Alteration of No.2-23 Incident

70
Incident Impact Duration

60

50
Average Speed (km/h)

40

30

20

10 Occurence
Upstream 1
Upstream 2
0
5

0
5
0

0
5
0

5
0
5
0
5

0
5
0
:40
:45

:05
:10
:15

:35
:40

:10
:15
:5

:2

:4

:2
:3

:5
:0

:2
:3

:5
:5
:0
:0

:2
:3
13
13
14

14
14
14

14
14
14
15

15
15
15
13
13
13

14
14
14

14
14

15
15
15

Time

Figure 7. The effect of segment traffic condition on speed decline.

Figure 7 illustrates the speed decline on the upstream and downstream before
and after No.2-23 incident. No.2-23 incident is the incident which the difference
between the maximum of the speed decline and the speed decline of the
incident-occurred segment is 24km/h. From the average speed alteration of No.2-23
incident in the figure 7, it shows that if the incident-occurred segment was in serious
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 311
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congestion (speed of the segment is lower than 20km/h) when the incident happened,
it was difficulty to observe the alteration of speed caused by incident only through
visual observations. However, it was easy to observe the speed decline of upstream1
caused by the incident from the figure due to the better traffic condition of the
upstream1 which was in mild congestion (speed of segment is 42km/h) at the time of
incident occurring. The traffic condition of upstream1 deteriorated rapidly due to the
incident, and the speed of the upstream1 dropped to lower than 20km/h.

Average Speed Alteration of No.2-25 Incident

70

60

50
Average Speed (km/h)

40

30

20

Incident Impact Duration Downstream 2

10
Downstream 1
Occurence
0 5

0
5

5
0

0
5

5
0

0
5

0
:4

:2

:3
:3

:4

:2

:0

:2
:4

:5

:1

:2
:5
:0
:0
:1

:3
:3
:4

:5
:5

:0
:1
:1
14
14
14
14

15

15
15

15
13

13

13

14

14

14

15

15

15
13

13

14

14
14

14

14

Time

Figure 8. The effect of segment traffic condition on speed rise.

Figure 8 illustrates the speed rise on the upstream and downstream traffic
before and after No.2-25 incident. When the incident happened, the
incident-occurred segment had a smooth flow (speed of the segment was 57km/h)
and the average speed insignificantly changed. However, it was observed that the
speed of downstream traffic transiently rose caused by the incident from the figure.
Considered the distance between the downstream and the incident-occurred segment,
the speed rise of downstream1 should be higher than that of downstream2. In fact,
the value of speed rise on downstream2 is higher than that on downstream1 due to
the different traffic condition of the two segments (the traffic condition of
downstream1 was mild congestion, the traffic condition of downstream2 was medial
congestion when the incident happened). Because of the different traffic condition of
the two segments, there is a huge difference in the speed change of different
segments caused by the same incident.
Based on the above discussion, the value of the speed change caused by
incident is closely related to the traffic condition of the segment. But the specific
value of speed change caused by the incident is also influenced by the severity of
incident, the type of incident, etc.

Effects of different factors on the incident impacts

Limited by the data source, it is difficult to use the queue length and the
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capacity of the road to carry on the impact analysis of traffic incidents. Therefore, the
article selects speed decline, impact duration and impact road length as study indexes
to measure the impacts on traffic caused by incident.
Using ANOVA, the effect of incident occurring time, location and traffic
condition on the three indexes will be analyzed. Because of the shortage of the
incident data, distribution tests must be done at first. Using SPSS software, the
following steps have been done:
Step1: incidents data will be divided into different groups according to a
factor;
Step 2: selects the groups whose number meets the statistical requirement as
research objects;
Step 3: tests whether the distribution of selected groups is normal using
nonparametric tests;
Step 4: selects the groups which have a normal distribution and tests whether
the variables of selected groups are overall equal;
Step 5: ANOVA will be used to judge whether the means of selected groups
are equal.

Effects of occurring time

The day time has been divided into six periods: morning peak (7:00-10:00);
morning (10:00-11:00); noon (11:00-14:00); afternoon (14:00-16:00); afternoon peak
(16:00-20:00); night (20:00-7:00next). According to the occurring time of incidents,
all incidents data have been assorted and analyzed followed by above steps. Analysis
results have been listed in Table 4.
Table 4. Analysis results of effects of occurring time on impact of incidents.
Normal Variance level of
Index distribution analysis F value significance
Speed decline Yes 0.014
Impact duration Yes 0.320 2.605 0.086
Impact length Yes 0.985 0.463 0.633
Note˖1.the results of variance analysis is less than 0.05ˈreveals the variance of
all groups are not equality in the overall level;
2.F value is more than 1ˈreveals that the mean of all groups are not
equality in the overall level; F value is less than 1ˈreveals that the mean of
all groups are equality in the overall level.

The results listed in Table 4 reveal that the occurring time of the incident can
affect the value of speed decline and impact duration. But the level of the
significance of the effect of the occurring time on the impact duration is not enough.
The occurring time has no significant effect on the impact length.
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Effects of location
According to the location of the incidents, all incidents have been divided
into four groups: inner 2nd Ring Rd, outer 2nd Ring Rd, inner 3rd Ring Rd and outer
3rd Ring Rd. Analysis has been done followed by previous steps and the results have
been listed in Table 5.
Table 5. Analysis results of effects of location on impact of incidents.
Normal Variance Level of
Index distribution analysis F value significance
Speed decline Yes 0.004
Impact duration Yes 0.667 0.677 0.570
Impact length Yes 0.149 0.903 0.446
Note˖1.the results of variance analysis is less than 0.05ˈreveals the variance of all
groups are not equality in the overall level;
2.F value is more than 1ˈreveals that the mean of all groups are not
equality in the overall level; F value is less than 1ˈreveals that the mean of
all groups are equality in the overall level.

The results listed in Table 5 demonstrate that the location of incident can
affect the value of the speed decline. But the location has no significant effect on the
impact duration and the impact length.

Traffic condition of segment

According to the standard for traffic condition listed in Table 3, all incidents
have been divided into five groups. Then variance analysis has been carried on and
the results have been listed in Table 6.
Table 6. Analysis results of effects of traffic condition on impacts of incidents.
Normal Variance Level of
Index distribution analysis F value significance
Speed decline Yes 0.092 1.238 0.299
Impact duration Yes 0.047
Impact length Yes 0.454 0.196 0.823
Note˖1.the results of variance analysis is less than 0.05ˈreveals the variance of
all groups are not equality in the overall level;
2.F value is more than 1ˈreveals that the mean of all groups are not
equality in the overall level; F value is less than 1ˈreveals that the mean of
all groups are equality in the overall level.
The results shows that the traffic condition of the segment can affect the
value of the speed decline and the impact duration but the traffic condition has no
significant effect on the impact length.

CONCLUSION
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Based on the above analyses, the following conclusions have been made:
The traffic condition of the segment in the incident plays a key role in speed
decline, especially when the upstream and downstream were facing different traffic
conditions. When the upstream and downstream were in different traffic conditions,
the occurrence of traffic incidents could deteriorate the upstream traffic which was
better before the incidents, while improve the downstream traffic which was worse
before the incidents.
The maximum of the speed decline doesn’t always appear on the
incident-occurred segment. The statistical results of the maximum of speed decline
and speed decline of the incident-occurred segment shows that two indexes don’t
differ much in most cases but there are individual incidents where the two indexes
vary considerably.
Using ANOVA, we found an obvious impacts of the local traffic condition on
the incidents, especially in the speed decline and the impact duration; we also found
that the impact duration of the incidents and the speed decline were influenced by the
occurring time; and the impact length were not influenced by the occurring time,
location and traffic condition of segment.

APPROVALS
Financial support for this study was provided by the National High-tech
Research and Development Program of China (863 Program: 2007AA11Z212) and
Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission (D07050600440704).

REFERENCES
Chen, C., Skabardonis, A., Varaiya, P., (2003). “Travel time reliability as a measure
of service.” Presented at the 82nd Annual Meeting Transportation Research
Board, Washington, D.C., 2003.
Liu, W. M., and Huang, Z. J. (2003). “Study of the analysis of the incident affect in
freeway through traffic dynamic approach.” Journal of Changsha
communications university, 19(1), 63-67.
Wang, W. Q., Chen, H. B., Bell, M. C., (2005). “A review of traffic incident duration
analysis.” Journal of transportation systems engineering and information
technology, 5(3), 127-140.
Zhang, G. B., Liu, Q., Yan, X. P., (2008). “The analysis of public events’ impact on
traffic delay.” Road traffic & safety, 7(5), 17-20.
Zhang, H. J., Zhang, Y., Yang, X. G., (2008). “Analysis and simulation of traffic state
on expressway during incident.” Journal of traffic and transportation
engineering, 8(2), 116-121.
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A Review of Prediction Models on Operating Speed for Highways

Tao CHEN1 and Lang WEI2

1
Key Laboratory of Automotive Transportation Safety of Ministry of
Communications, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China; PH (086) 029-
82334475; FAX (086) 029-82334476; email: chentao@chd.edu.cn
2
School of Automobile, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China; PH (086) 029-
82334471; FAX (086) 029-82334476; email: qch_1@chd.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
The prediction of operating speed is one of the key problems used to
evaluate highway safety at the design stage. The research status on prediction
models of operating speed for highways is presented, which includes the prediction
models related to the parameters of tangent, horizontal curve, vertical alignment and
the combination of horizontal and vertical alignment. The existing problems such as
the influencing factors of road characteristics, driver perception, data collection
devices and vehicle type are discussed. Some research focuses and developing
trends on the modeling of operating speed are presented including the driver’s model
on the basis of preview behavior, the vehicle dynamics simulation model and the
model based on the driver-vehicle-road comprehensive consideration.

1. INTRODUCTION
Research on design consistency has focused on four main areas: operating
speed, vehicle stability, alignment indices and driver workload. There are several
methodologies available to evaluate design consistency noted in the literature
(Fitzpatrick et al., 2000). One of the most commonly used methods was developed
by Lamm et al. (1999). It uses three design consistency criteria, which include the
difference between design and operating speed, the difference between operating
speeds on successive elements and the difference between the assumed side friction
of the road and the side friction demanded by the driver. The key issue of design
consistency evaluation is to determine the operating speed.
A literature review reveals that many operating speed prediction models have
been developed. The form of the models and number of variables used in each
model can vary considerably. Most of the models calculate the operating speeds on
horizontal curves, some models calculate the operating speed on tangents and few
models predict the operating speed on vertical alignments. Some past research has
compared the operating speed calculated by different models (Lamm et al. 1999).
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2. REVIEW OF RESEARCH
2.1 Models on tangent sections of highway
On tangent sections, the speed of vehicles is dependent on a wide array of
roadway characteristics, such as the length of the tangent section, the radius of the
curve before and after the section, cross-section elements, vertical alignments,
general terrain and available sight distance. Additionally, it largely depends on the
driver’s attitude, as well as on the acceleration and deceleration capabilities of the
vehicle on a specific road. Few studies have dealt with this issue. Polus et al. (2000)
developed an operating speed model for tangents using a series of four equations,
with the R2 values ranging from 0.20 to 0.84. Each equation represented a different
type of tangent, which was classified based on the horizontal radius of the preceding
and succeeding curve and the tangent length. The model is expressed as Equations
(1) and (2).
V85=f(GML) (1)
GM L = [TL ´ ( R1 ´ R2 )1/ 2 )]/100 (2)

Where GML=geometric measure of the tangent section and attached curves for
long tangent lengths (m2); R1,R2=previous and following curve radii (m);
TL=tangent length (m).
Fitzpatrick used the collected roadway and roadside variables to predict
operating speed on tangent sections (Fitzpatrick et al., 2005). Key variables included
functional classification (arterial, collector, and local), edge treatment (curb and
gutter versus shoulder) and speed limit. The research results show that the operating
speeds correlates highly with the variation in posted speed limits. Other variables
including access density, median type, parking along the street and pedestrian
activity level also have influence on the 85th percentile free-flow operating speed.
He Y.L uses the following model to predict operating speed on tangent sections
of freeways in China (He 2002).
V85=Ve-f(L,R1,R2) (3)
Where Ve=speed expectation (km/h); L=tangent length (m); R1,R2=previous
and following curve radii (m).

2.2 Models on factors of horizontal curves

Speeds on horizontal curves have been studied extensively in the past. These
prediction models are shown in Table 1. Only a few models consider the effects of
vertical grades on speed because passenger cars are not generally affected by grades
of –5% to +5% (Ottesen et al., 2000). Some models specify a range of grades in
which the model is valid (Morrall and Talarico 1994). Most of these equations were
developed before the repeal of the National Maximum Speed Limit in America in
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1996. The most important factor is the curve radius; few of these research studies
used the curve change rate (CCRS) or degree of curve (DC). In the recent past, some
research used the previous and following curve radius.

Table 1. Models Related to the Factors of Horizontal Curves.

Model Model equation
Glennon(1985), Lamm(1987), Kanellaidis (1990), V85=f(R)
Fan (2002)
Lamm (1987,1999) V85=f(CCRS)
Islam(1994), Lamm (1999), Ottesen (2000) V85=f(DC)
Voigt(1996) V85=f(R, LC, I, e)
TAC(1999) V85=f(LC, R)
Ottesen (2000) V85=f(DC, LC)
V85m=f(Vi,Rb,R)
MOC (2004)
V85o=f(V85m,Rf,R)
Bonneson (2009) V85c=f(R, e,V85t)
Where CCRS=curve change rate (gons/km); DC=degree of curve;
e=superelevation rate; I=deflection angle of horizontal curve (degrees); LC=length
of horizontal curve (m); V85m=operating speed on middle point of curve;
Vin=operating speed on approach point of curve; V85o=operating speed on departure
point of curve; Rb,Rf,R=previous, following and current curve radii; V85C, V85t=the
85th percentile curve speed and tangent speed.

2.3 Models on factors of vertical curves

Models on factors of vertical curves are shown in Table 2. The rate of vertical
curvature (K) and grades are used in these research studies. Upgrades have the
effect of limiting the accelerations that vehicles can achieve, thus making it difficult
for drivers to maintain their desired speed. On steep and long grades, the vehicle will
decelerate to a crawl speed. A vehicle’s crawl speed on a specific grade is a function
of the grade and the performance characteristics of the vehicle. Thus, the
performance simulation of a vehicle is an important supplement for predicting
operating speed. The most commonly used models for vehicle performance
dynamics simulation commercially available are TRARR and TWOPAS. The
TRARR is a microscopic computer simulation model on individual vehicles’
performance on two-lane rural roads, which was developed by the Australian Road
Research Board. TWOPAS is a microscopic simulation model of traffic on two-lane
rural highways first developed in the mid-1970s (Fitzpatrick et al., 2000).
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Table 2. Models Related to the Factors of Vertical Curves.

Model Model equation
Fitzpatrick (2000) V85 = f(K)
Jessen (2001) V85 =f(Vp,G1,TADT)
Where K=rate of vertical curvature; Vp=posted speed (km/h); G1=the
approach grade (%); TADT=ADT.

2.4 Models on horizontal curves combined with vertical curves

The majority of the models for predicting operating speed deal with the
horizontal alignments only, while one study (Hassan et al., 2000) showed that
considering the effect of two-dimensional alignments only, instead of the actual 3D
alignment, might dramatically overestimate or underestimate the actual speed values.
The regression models on horizontal curves combined with vertical curves are
shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Speed Prediction Models on Horizontal Combined with

Vertical Curves.
Model Model equation
Donnell (2001) V85 =f(R,G2,LT2)
Karen (2002) V85=f(I,LC,G1)
Gong (2008) V85=f(ST, MT, PT, AG,LC)
Where G2=second grade in direction of travel (%); LT2=length of succeeding
tangent (m); ST=shoulder type index; MT=median type index; PT=pavement type
index; AG=approaching section grade index.
The HDM-Ⅲ speed prediction model from the Brazilian speed study
(Watanatada 1987) is an extensive mechanistic speed model. The principle of the
model is that when a vehicle travels along a road profile, the behavior of the moving
vehicle is always constrained by a number of elements, including desired speed,
driving power, brake power, horizontal curvature and road conditions, which form a
speed model as shown in Equations (4) and (5).
E0
v= b
(4)
ìï 1
b
1
b
1
b
1
b
1
ü
b ï
í(vDRIVE ) + (vBRAKE ) + (vCURVE ) + (vROUGH ) + (vDESIR ) ý
îï þï

s2
E = exp( )
0
(5)
2
Where v=steady state speed for free flow conditions (m/s); vDRIVE=driving
power limited speed (m/s); vBRAKE=braking power limited speed (m/s); vCURVE=road
curvature limited speed (m/s); vROUGH=roughness limited speed (m/s);
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VDESIR=desired speed (m/s); E0=bias correction; σ=coefficient of speed variation;

β=Weibull shape parameter.

2.5 The other operating speed-based models

Some studies (McFadden et al. 2000; Misaghi et al. 2005) focused on
developing models for the speed reduction from a tangent to a curve. McFadden
(McFadden et al. 2000) considered the speed reduction by tracking the speed of
individual vehicles along the curve. Some studies focused on the speed variability
prediction (Collins et al., 1999).

3. THE EXISTING PROBLEMS

The driving behavior of motorists is based on a number of influencing
variables and the driving habits of the motorist. The driving behavior and the speed
choice are determined both by the optical picture of the driving space as well as by
the accumulated experience of the driver. It is difficult to analyze and quantitatively
evaluate the effects of a single influencing variable on operating speed because these
variables are not independent. This means that they are effective individually, but are
partially interrelated to a certain extent. In addition, the data collection of several
influencing parameters is difficult or even impossible to obtain.

3.1 The Influencing factors of road characteristics

The influencing variables on road characteristics include the curvature
change rate, radius of curve, sight distance (SD), longitudinal grade and cross-
sectional design.
Curvature change rate and radius of curve. Misaghi et al (2005) found
that the relationship between the operating speed at the middle of a horizontal curve
and the horizontal curve radius is relatively weak. Many studies showed that a
limitation on the curve itself is not a sufficient speed predictor because for radii of
curve of the same size, different speeds were observed. The curvature change rate
(CCR) has been found to more accurately relate to road characteristics.
Sight distance. Gattis (1995) in Arkansas emphasized the importance of
sight distance. They suggest that ample preview sight distance is needed and
required preview time should be in the order of 1.3 to 1.7s.
Longitudinal grade. It can be assumed that the driving behavior of
passenger cars is not significantly affected up to longitudinal grades of ±6 percent.
However, the longitudinal grade has a strong influence on the speed of trucks.

3.2 Driver perception

Some research showed that drivers perceive the radius of horizontal curves
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differently when they are combined with vertical curves (Bidulka et al. 2002; Hassan
et al. 2002). Hassan et al. (2002) quantified a relationship between the perceived
radius and the actual radius for sag and crest curve combinations. This relationship
was used to determine the influence of the perceived radius on the operating speed.

3.3 Data collection devices

The data collection device used to record vehicle speed was, in most cases, a
manually operated radar gun. The utilization of radar guns is often accompanied
with three problems. First, human error resulting from a large number of manual
operations may be introduced into the data collection. Second, the speed measured
by a radar gun at the curved sections has some degree of inaccuracy due to cosine
error. Third, the presence of the personnel representatives might affect drivers’
behavior and speed control. Future research may use radar techniques to follow
vehicles and provide an excellent database for the investigation of unaffected speed
behavior.

3.4 Vehicle types

The majority of the models were developed concentrating on speed
prediction for passenger cars, and few models have been developed for heavy trucks
(Bester, 2000). However, on some highways, especially on freeways in China, trucks
represent a large percentage of vehicles that may be considered the design vehicle
and the primary accident vehicles. The prediction models for trucks should be the
focus of future research.

4. RESEARCH FOCUS AND DEVELOPING DIRECTIONS

The prediction model of operating speed on highways includes
comprehensive results constrained by road characteristics, vehicle performance,
driver behavior, and traffic management. The drivers scan the future desired road
path within a finite future distance when performing a driving task. This behavior is
called the preview/predictive driver models. The “preview” refers to the driver’s
ability to see the future desired path and “predictive” refers to the driver’s ability to
predict future vehicle response. After previewing, reasoning and judgment, the
driver finally generates a vehicle control action. The regression model related to the
road characteristics makes it difficult to reflect the speed control process accurately.
Thus, building the prediction model on operating speed requires considerations of
driver, vehicle and road characteristics comprehensively and to integrate the
regression model and mechanistic model. The following are the possible research
focuses and developing directions:
The study of the driver preview model for speed prediction is important, and
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the sight distance is also a key influencing factor on the speed control of driver.
On the basis of standards (JTG/T B05-2004) issued by MOC of China, the
variables in the speed prediction model related to the road alignments such as CCR,
DC, deflection angle, length of horizontal curve etc. should be studied further.
It is necessary to develop a vehicle performance simulation model suited to
the different vehicle types (especially heavy trucks) in China, and to consider the
brake heat recession for long and steep downgrades.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.
50908020) and national science and technology supporting program of China (No.
2007BAK35B01).

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Bonneson, James A. Pratt, Michael Paul. (2009). “Model for Predicting Speed Along
Horizontal Curves on Two-Lane Highways”. Transportation Research
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Collins J. Fitzpatrick K, Bauer K. M., et al. (1999) Speed variability on rural two-
lane highways. Transportation Research Record, Transportation Research
Board, 1658, 60-69.
Donnell, E. T., Ni, Y., Adolini, M., and Elefteriadou, L. (2001). “Speed prediction
models for trucks on two-lane rural highways.” Transportation Research
Record, Transportation Research Board, 1751, 44–55.
Fan Z. Y., Zhang J. F. (2002). “Analysis and calibration of the operating speed
computing models on highway sections”. China Journal of Highway and
Transport, 107-109.
Fitzpatrick, K., and Collins, J.M. (2000). “Speed-profile model for two-lane rural
highways”. Transportation Research Record, Transportation Research
Board, 1737, 42–49.
Fitzpatrick Kay, Miaou Shaw-Pin, Brewer M. et al. (2005). “Exploration of the
relationships between operating speed and roadway features on tangent
sections”. Journal of Transportation Engineering. ASCE, 131(4), 261–269.
Gattis J. L, Duncan J. (1995). “Geometric design for adequate operational preview
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of road ahead”. Transportation research record, Transportation Research

Board, 1500, 139–145.
Glennon, J.C., Neuman, T.R., and Leisch, J.E. (1985). “Safety and Operational
Considerations for Design of Rural Highway Curves”. FHWA-RD-86-035.
Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.
Gong H. F, Stamatiadis N. (2008). “Operating Speed Prediction Models for
Horizontal Curves on Rural Four-Lane Highways”. Transportation
Research Record, Transportation Research Board, 2075, 1–7.
Hassan, Y., Gibreel, G. M., and Easa, S. M. (2000). “Evaluation of highway
consistency and safety: practical application”, J. Transp. Eng. 126(3),
193–201.
Hassan, Y., Sayed, T., and Bidulka, S. (2002). “Influence of vertical alignment on
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He Y. L., Lu Z.X. et al. (2002). “The operating speed prediction model on tangent
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Islam, M.N., and Seneviratne, P.N. (1994). “Evaluation of design consistency on
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Jessen, D. R., Schurr, K. S., McCoy, P. T., and et al. (2001). “Operating speed
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Kanellaidis, G., Golias, J., and Efstathiadis, S. (1990). “Driver's speed behavior on
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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 324
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Research on Relationships between a Driver’s Traffic Safety Consciousnesses

and Occurrence of Traffic Accidents in Rural Areas of China

Li-zeng MAO 1, Yu MENG 1, Liren DUAN2 , Enrong MAO3, Jiangang GAO4

1.
Civil and Environment Engineering School University of Science and Technology
Beijing, Beijing, China; PH 13661384597; email: maolizeng@163.com
2.
School of Information, Chang’an University, Xi’an, China; PH 13901002260;
email: duanliren@263.net.cn
3.
College of Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China; PH
13501288688; email: gxy15@cau.edu.cn
4.
Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Communications, Beijing, China; PH
15711113241; email: jg.gao@rioh.cn

ABSTRACT
In this study, 500 rural vehicle drivers in China will be cluster sampled and
surveyed based on consciousness of drivers and the occurrence of traffic accidents.
Based on the research in this article, the statistical methodologies of the t-test and
ANOVA will be applied to determine the demographic factors and driving skill
related factors that contributes to a driver’s traffic safety consciousness. The purpose
of this article is to acquire the association between a driver’s traffic behavior and
occurrence rate of a traffic accident. The analysis of relativity on driving experience
（F=0.538，P=0.044）, educational level （F=5.257，P=0.010）and driving skill
acquisition approach （ F=12.329 ， P≈0.000 ） shows that there are significant
differences among sample groups (P <0.05). With the rise of Traffic Safety
Consciousness (TSC), the safety level of the traffic behavior increases gradually,
meaning less occurrence rate of traffic accidents. The conclusion shows that the
consciousness affectsa driver’s traffic behavior indirectly, while the traffic behavior
results in the traffic accident directly. A combination of education and improvement
in road traffic safety facilities can help guide and standardize driving behavior for
comprehensive management of traffic accidents in rural areas.

With the rapid development of the economy, motor vehicle population has
increased and traffic injury has become one of the biggest public health concerns in
rural areas of China. Traffic fatalities in rural areas reached more than 60,000 in
2009, about 73.82% of total fatalities in China. Jia Cunxian and Fang Le(2005)
suggested that traffic accidents are the biggest cause of accident casualties and are
the heaviest economic burden. Motor vehicle drivers are responsible for more than
90% traffic accidents. Traffic Safety Consciousness (TSC) and behavior may affect
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traffic accidents directly or indirectly. Studies on association between TSC and the
occurrence of traffic accidents provide theoretical and technical support for
developing safety improvement projects that aimtowards reducing crashes at these
locations.
1. OBJECTS AND METHODOLOGY
The empirical setting for this research to take place would be the regions of
four cities of Nanning, Guiyang, Changsha and Jiaozuo. Also 3 or 4 towns from 12
countries were chosen as the survey places. 500 vehicle drivers distributed in the
four chosen regions were investigated.
Questionnaires and forms were programmed by technology research teams
of rural road traffic safety. The field investiagion lasted for a month, from 1st august
to 31st august, in 2008. After excluding and selecting a certain few, 435 out of the
500 samples were chosen for analysis. The distribution was 106 samples in
Nanning,89 samples in Guiyang, 100 samples in Changsha and 140 samples in
Jiaozuo. The response rate was 87.00%.
SPSS13.0 was chosen as the analysis software. Based on the investigation,
the t-test and ANOVA were applied for two-simple and multiple-simple mean
significant tests, where P = 0.05 was taken as the standard test. Table 1 is the
correspondence between test methods and items.
Table 1. the correspondence between test methods and items.
Test methodology Test items
t-test Association between driver’s gender and TSC
Association between driver’s age, educational level,
driving experience, driving skill acquisition approach and
TSC.
ANOVA
Association between traffic behavior and TSC.
Association between level of traffic behavior safety and
traffic accident rate.

2．RESULTS
2.1 VARIABLE DESCRIPTION
The situation of driver’s traffic safety consciousness, safety level of driver’s
traffic behavior and traffic accident rate are represented by comprehensive scores
which are counted according to the items in the questionnaire. The higher the score
mean is, the better the situation is. The following shows the different type of factors
that affect TSC: demographic factors and factors related to driving skill. In addition,
the TSC effects on traffic accidents happening will also discussed.
2.2 DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
(1) Gender. The statistical results show that the comprehensive score means
(CSM) of TSC in male responders (5.91) are lower than the female responders
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(6.05). However, on a t-test for gender factor, the F has a value of 0.538 with
significance of 0.464. The results illustrate that there was no significant difference in
the perceptions of female and male respondent’s view in TSC (p>0.05), as show in
table 2. Therefore, gender is not a key factor to a driver’s TSC.
Table 2. Association between gender and driver’s TSC.
gender N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean
Male 325 5.908 1.778 0.098
TSC
Female 110 6.046 1.715 0.164
t-test F=0.538 P=0.464
(2) Age. On a ANOVA of the age factor to a driver’s TSC, the F has a value
of 1.819 with significance of 0.124. The results illustrate that there was no
significant difference between drivers at different ages (P>0.05), as show in table 3.
This means that the age is also not a key factor to driver’s TSC.
(3) Educational level. In terms of education, drivers with junior college
diploma or above have a CSM of 6.59, the group with highest score. Drivers who
have completed high school have a CSM of 6.18. Drivers who completed middle
school have a mean of 6.07.Drivers who completed primary and below have the
mean of 5.20. The higher education background means the better TSC (see figure
1(a)).
Table 3. ANOVA of age factors to driver’s TSC.
Sum of squares df Mean square F Sig.
Between groups 22.401 4 5.600 1.819 0.124
Within groups 1327.166 431 3.079
total 1349.567 435
On a ANOVA of the educational level factor to a driver’s TSC, the F has a
value of 5.257 with significance of 0.01. The results illustrate that there was a
significant difference between different education backgrounds driver’s with regard
to TSC (p<0.05), as show in table 4.
Table 4. ANOVA of educational level factor to driver’s TSC.
Sum of squares df Mean square F Sig.
Between groups 47.531 3 15.844 5.257 0.001
Within groups 1302.035 432 3.041
total 1349.567 435
2.3 DRIVING SKILL RELATED FACTORS
(1) Driving experience. In terms of driving experience, drivers with more
than 20 years driving experience have a CSM of 6.05. Drivers with less than 1 year
experience have a CSM of 5.42, the lowest level of TSC.
The results illustrate that there was a significant difference in the perceptions
of female and male respondents’ view of TSC (F=0.538, p=0.044<0.05), as show in
table 5. Therefore, driving experience is the key factor to a driver’s TSC.
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Table 5. ANOVA of driver experience to driver’s TSC.

Sum of squares df Mean square F Sig.
Between groups 35.199 5 7.040 2.303 0.044
Within groups 1314.367 430 3.057
total 1349.567 435
(2) Driving skill acquisition approach. Drivers in rural areas of China mainly
have four approaches to acquire driving skills. These four approaches are training in
driving school, training in troops, training by friends and self-learning. The drivers
that acquire driving skills from self-learning have a CSM of 4.70, while drivers that
acquire their skills by training in driving school have a CSM of 6.90 (see figure 1
(b)). Therefore, the drivers training in driving school can improve TSC.
The results illustrate that there was a significant difference between different
driving skill acquisition approach with regards to TSC (p<0.05)(see table 6).
Table 6. ANOVA of driving skill acquisition approach to driver’s TSC.
Sum of squares df Mean square F Sig.
Between groups 138.567 4 34.642 12.329 0.000
Within groups 1211.000 431 2.810
total 1349.567 435

(a) (b)
Fig 1. Association between Education, Approach and TSC.
2.4 THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN TSC AND TRAFFIC CRASH RATE
Driver’s TSC will affect a driver’s behavior which causes traffic accidents
directly under some conditions. Therefore, the association between TSC and traffic
accident rate can be analyzed by two steps. The association between TSC and a
driver’s behavior was analyzed first, then the association between a driver’s
behavior and traffic accident rate was analyzed. The results show that the higher
comprehensive score of a driver’s TSC means the higher level of traffic driver
behavior(see figure 2(a)).
On a ANOVA of a driver’s TSC effect to a driver’s traffic behavior, the F has
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a value of 1.879 with significance of 0.043. The results illustrate that there was a
significant difference between a driver at different TSC level with regards to traffic
behavior (p<0.05), as show in table 7.
Table 7. ANOVA of driver’s TSC to traffic behavior.

Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

Between Groups 16.619 9 1.847 1.879 .043
Within Groups 418.709 426 0.983
Total 435.328 435
By the same analysis method, the results show that the higher level of traffic
safety behavior means the lower traffic accident rate (see figure 2(b)).

(a) (b)
Fig 2. Association between TSC, traffic behaviors with traffic accident rate.
On a ANOVA of a driver’s traffic behavior influences traffic accident rate ,
the F has a value of 8.062 with significance of less than 0.01. The results illustrate
that there was a significant difference between driver at different traffic safety
behavior level with regards to traffic accident rate (p<0.05), as show in table 7.
Table 7. ANOVA of driver’s traffic safety behavior to traffic accident rate.
Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Between Groups 239.430 8 29.929 8.062 .000
Within Groups 1585.127 427 3.712
Totals 1824.557 435
3. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The contradiction between rapid development of rural roads and low TSC of
people who live in rural areas is the main reason why there are traffic safety
problems (GAO Jiangang, 2008). Therefore, it is very important to analyze main
factors that relate to driver’s TSC.
Based on the analysis of demographic factors and driving skill related factors,
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the results show that the education level, driving experience and driving skill
acquisition approach are the top 3 heaviest factors that affect TSC of drivers in rural
areas. The difference between simple groups is significant. The drivers with low
educational level, lack of driving experience and self-taught driving skills show low
level of traffic safety behavior and higher probability of a traffic accident, which
shows the same conclusion with Mao, 2008. It also indicates a serious situation of
traffic safety will last for a long time in rural areas of China. In rural areas, more
than 50% drivers have a poor educational level, over 20% of the drivers lack driving
experience and about 30% drivers acquire driving skills by self-learning The
situation will not change a lot in the next decade for the economic condition and
traffic environment. Hence, other methods should be considered to improve a
driver’s TSC and behavior.
The causes of a driver’s TSC and behavior can be divided into internal and
external causes. Demographic factors and driving skill related factors are the internal
causes while road traffic environment is the external cause. Comparing with internal
causes, it’s more viable to reinforce the pressnt external causes because it’s rather
difficult to improve driver’s TSC and behavior by education, propaganda,
punishment, reciprocation, etc. Therefore, cost-effective traffic equipment must be
developed for a rural road to reduce serious injuries and fatalities. A combination of
education and improvement in road traffic safety facilities can help guide and
standardize driving behavior for comprehensive management of traffic accidents in
rural areas.

REFERENCES

Ministry of Public Security Public Security Traffic Management Bureau, road traffic
accident statistics compiled of P.R.C.[M]. Ministry of Public Security
Public Security Traffic Management Bureau.2007
JIA Cunxian, FANG Le, etc. Epidemiological survey of rural residents in accident in
Jinan, China Public Health Journal. April.2005
GAO Jiangang etc. Analysis of road traffic safety contradictions in rural area, Road
Journal [J], 2008.6. No 6.
Mao Lizeng, Duan Liren, Mao Enrong. Analysis of traffic accident and effect factor
of vehicle drivers in rural area in Guangxi. China Health Statistic Journal.
2008. Vol 25. N 3.
SHI Jianjun, Zhu Lili, Zhang Shuanghong. Effect of Traffic Behavior Consciousness
on Behavior Control, China Safety Science Journal, May,2009
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Effects of Speed Management Facilities and Suggestions

Xiaoming ZHONG1, Jian ZHANG1, Yuanyuan Wang2, Jia JIA1

1
Chelbi Engineering Consultants, Inc., No. 20, Anyuan Road, 8 Floor - Xingyuan
Talent Tower, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China;PH 86-10-64997112;FAX
86-1084896981; email: zhong_xiaoming@126.com
2
State Intellectual Property Office patent examination Collaborating Center,
Zhongguancun South Street, Zijin Digital Building 4# 517 Room, Beijing, China; PH
86-10-62413018; email:wangyuanyuan@sipo.gov.cn

ABSTRACT
Speed management has been demonstrated to enhance the overall safety of
the road system. Setting appropriate speed management facilities (such as posted
speed limit, automated speed enforcement systems, etc.) would be highly effective in
reducing illegal speeding behavior and enhancing transportation efficiency. The
purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of posted speed limit signs and
automated speed camera enforcement systems and to make suggestions for highway
design practitioners and policy makers. A speed increment analysis method is used to
discuss samples with posted speed limits ranging from 40km/h to 80km/h or
automated speed camera enforcement systems. The ratio of drivers complying with
the limit speeds or not was also observed or investigated by questionnaires.
Conclusions and constructive suggestions for posting speed limit signs or automated
speed camera enforcement systems are put forward in this paper.

1. INTRODUCTION
Speed management has been demonstrated to enhance the overall safety of
the road system. Crashes caused by excessive speeding result in almost 10,000
fatalities and 35,000 disabling injuries each year, which account for nearly 10
percent of total crashes in China (Ministry of Public Security P. R. China 1990-
2006). Setting appropriate speed management facilities (such as posted speed limits,
automated speed enforcement, etc.) would be highly effect in reducing illegal
speeding behaviors and enhancing transportation efficiency (Fitzpatrick,2003;
Fildes,1993). On the other hand, unreasonable speed facilities would not only lead to
decreasing the effectivenss of speed management, but would also cause unfair
enforcement and public complaints (Kathleen, 2007; Kara, 2006; Li C., 2006).
However, few studies have focused on the effects of speed facilities and few
evaluation conclusions have been issued in China.
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The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of posted speed limit signs
and automated speed camera enforcement systems, and to make suggestions for
highway design practitioners and policy makers.
First, the paper presents the field data collection approach. Then, the speed
increment analysis method is introduced to analyize the effects of posted speed limits
ranging from 40km/h to 80km/h or automated speed camera enforcement systems.
Next, the ratio of drivers complying with the limit speeds or not is also observed and
investigated by questionnaires. Finally, conclusions and constructive suggestions are
put forward for highway design practitioners and policy makers. The conclusions and
suggestions will serve as a reference for other countries as well.
The innovation in this paper is as follows: using a new method named speed
increment analysis to evaluate the effects of speed limit signs or automated speed
enforcement systems, developing a model to estimate the magnitude of car
deceleration because of the effect of automated speed enforcement systems and
understanding the attitudes and suggestions regarding speed limits and safety
enforcement through detailed questionnaires.

2. DATA COLLECTION
Field studies were conducted to provide data needed to evaluate and quantify
the effects of posted speed limit signs ranging from 40km/h to 80km/h, to compare
the effect of posted speed limits with auto-camera enforcement systems, to observe
the ratio of drivers complying with the limit speeds or not and to observe
acceleration or deceleration behaviors.
Field data were collected at a total of 25 segments with posted speed limit
signs or automated speed cameras on national highways G105, G109 and G324.
Figures 1 and 2 illustrate typical data collection setups for the field studies. Two
radar guns were used: one to record vehicle speeds approximately 200m before the
posted speed limit sign and a second to record vehicle speeds just after the posted
speed limit sign. All vehicle speed profiles were traced by the two radar guns. In
addition, two video cameras were used to record things likes road and traffic
surroundings when the vehicle speeds were measured. The data-collection equipment
was hidden and kept out of sight of the drivers. The characteristics of these sample
sites are summarized in Table 1.
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Figure 1. Spot data collection with CS-8A radar guns.

Posted speed sign

40

Video camera A
B 点 Video camera B

Spot-A Spot-B

Radar gun A Radar gun B

Figure 2. Typical data collection setups for field sudies.

Table 1. Speed limit characteristics of sample sites.

Highway Number of
Item Posted speed Characteristic Milepost
name sample

K7+000，K37+100 G109
40km/h sign
1 K2368+900,K2468+400 G105 6
40 km/h sign with auto-camera
K951+400，K919+300 G324
enforcement
50km/h sign K956+200 G324
2 50 km/h sign with auto-camera 3
K2+000，K3+200， G109
enforcement
K803+700,K912+300 G324
60km/h sign
K2342+15,K2480+100 G105
3 6
60 km/h sign with auto-camera
K35+850，K27+100 G109
enforcement
4 70km/h sign K816+200 G324 3
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70 km/h sign with auto-camera

K816+950, K772+950 G324
enforcement
80km/h sign K802+950 G324
5 80 km/h sign with auto-camera 3
K870+500,K938+000 G324
enforcement
6 no signs K876+500 ,K896+500 G324 2

It requires more than 3 hours to collect about 200 vehicles’ worth of data for
each sample site. The criteria used to select study sites are summarized as follows:
Site : national highway locates in rural or suburban areas
Grade : -4%-4% Width of cross section: 9m or 12m
Surface condition: fair to good Number of lane: two-lane two-way
Roadside: low, medium pedestrian activity, no access control
Design speed: 40km/h, 60km/h, 80km/h
Speed limit: 40km/h, 50km/h,60km/h,70km/h, 80km/h
Weather: sunny and dry
Traffic volumes: cars and busses accounted for two-thirds of the total vehicle
volume and heavy trucks (more than 10 tons) accounted for less than 15 percent.

3. METHODOLOGY & DATA ANALYSIS

Posted speed limit signs are widely used for speed control. Generally, 30km/h
to 80km/h speed signs are posted on highways in China. This section discusses the
findings of field data to determines the best way to evaluate the effects of speed limit
signs.
3.1 Effect of posted speed signs
The paper uses a new method named speed increment analysis to evaluate the
effects of speed limit signs, which has not been used before.
The effects of posted speed limit signs are defined as the speed increment
between the speed before the vehicle passes the posted speed limit signs and the
speed after the vehicle passes the posted speed limit signs. It is represented by the
following equation(1):
（1）
Where:

-speed increment before and after the posted sign (km/h)

- speed of vehicle just past the posted sign (km/h)

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-initial travel speed of a vehicle, when the vehicle approaches the posted

speed limit sign, but the driver has not seen the the sign (or the sign is not in the view
of the driver) (km/h).
Tables 2 through 4 show the speed before and after the 40km/h to 60km/h
posted speed limit signs. Figures 2 and 3 illustrate the the speed before and after the
70km/h to 80km/h posted speed limit signs. By analyzing the field data, the
following conclusions can be drawn:
1. The average speed in the samples ranges from 55km/h to 65km/h. The 85th
percentile speed and the 90th percentile speed are around 70km/h to 80km/h. The
maxium speed reached 113.0km/h, which greatly exceeds the maxium design speed
and maxium posted speed.
2. The data makes it clear that the posted speed limit signs have little effect
on the drivers. Table 2 shows speeds measured before and after 40km/h posted speed
limit sign and the average traffic speed. The 85th percentile and 95th percentile
speed decreases no less than 1km/h respectively. The driver drives faster than the
posted speed limit because road conditions can support drivers at higher speeds. This
could imply that the low posted speed limit does not produce the desired effect of
speed control.

Table 2. Speed change before and after 40km/h posted speed signs.
parameter before posted speed sign after posted speed sign speed increment
all car and all car and all car and
truck truck truck
vehicle coach vehicle coach vehicle coach

samples 190 160 30 190 160 30 190 160 30

average speed 61.6 62.6 56.2 61.5 62.7 55.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.7
Std. Deviation 11.0 11.2 8.3 10.6 10.6 8.6 -0.4 -0.6 0.3
minimum speed 42.0 44.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0
maximum speed 95.0 95.0 65.0 96.0 96.0 67.0 1.0 1.0 2.0
85th percentile speed 72.8 73.2 64.9 72.1 74.3 66.8 -0.7 1.2 1.9
90th percentile speed 75.6 76.1 65.0 75.0 76.2 67.0 -0.6 0.1 2.0
95th percentile speed 80.2 83.2 65.0 79.4 80.5 67.0 -0.8 -2.7 2.0
th
98 percentile speed 86.7 88.5 65.0 86.1 86.4 67.0 -0.6 -2.1 2.0

Table 3. Speed change before and after 50km/h posted speed signs.
parameter before posted speed sign after posted speed sign speed increment
all car and all car and all car and
truck truck truck
vehicle coach vehicle coach vehicle coach

samples 160 101 59 160 101 59 160 101 59

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average speed 55.9 59.5 49.7 55.3 57.5 51.9 -0.6 -1.9 2.2
Std. Deviation 9.7 8.3 8.7 8.1 8.1 6.9 -1.5 -0.2 -1.8
minimum speed 30.0 36.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 35.0 5.0 4.0 5.0
maximum speed 85.0 85.0 67.0 78.0 78.0 71.0 -7.0 -7.0 4.0
85th percentile speed 66.0 67.0 60.0 63.0 64.0 60.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0
90th percentile speed 67.0 68.8 61.0 64.0 67.0 61.0 -3.0 -1.8 0.0
95th percentile speed 71.0 72.0 65.0 68.4 72.0 63.0 -2.6 0.0 -2.1
98th percentile speed 78.6 82.5 67.0 76.9 80.5 64.7 -1.7 -2.0 -2.3

Table 4. Speed change before and after 60km/h posted speed signs.
parameter before posted speed sign after posted speed sign speed increment
all car and all car and all car and
truck truck truck
vehicle coach vehicle coach vehicle coach

samples 166 116 50 166 116 50 166 116 50

average speed 65.8 67.4 62.0 65.0 68.3 57.2 -0.8 0.9 -4.8
Std. Deviation 8.5 8.5 7.2 9.4 8.6 6.1 1.0 0.1 -1.1
minimum speed 50.0 52.0 50.0 44.0 52.0 44.0 -6.0 0.0 -6.0
maximum speed 93.0 93.0 74.0 89.0 89.0 70.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0
85th percentile speed 74.0 75.0 70.8 74.0 77.0 62.4 0.0 2.0 -8.4
90th percentile speed 75.0 79.3 72.6 77.0 80.0 64.8 2.0 0.7 -7.8
95th percentile speed 81.8 82.3 73.8 80.9 81.6 66.8 -0.9 -0.7 -7.0
th
98 percentile speed 84.7 85.7 74.0 85.0 85.0 68.6 0.3 -0.7 -5.4

3. Data in these samples have also demonstrated that the average speed (or
the 50th percentile operating speed) exceeds the 40km/h or 50km/h posted speed
limit. That means more than 50 percent of drivers could be fined because of speeding.
Without question, too-low speed limit signs induce seriously public complaints.

Figure 2. Speed change before and after 70km/h posted speed signs.
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4. Posted speed limit signs have little effect on adjusting the average traffic
speed and the 85th percentile since most delta V is no less than negative 2km/h. The
average traffic speed and the 85th percentile speeds at most sites exceeds the posted
speed (Fitzpatrick, 2000). This implies that some drivers traveling at high speeds do
not comply whether or not the posted speed is reasonable.

Figure 3. Speed change before and after 80km/h posted speed signs.

3.2 Effect of posted speed signs and auto-camera enforcement system

From the above findings on the effects of posted speed limit signs, it is
suggested that appropriate methods of speed control should be employed to achieve
desired safety. Automated enforcement has been widely used for speed control and to
deter excessive speeding (Schurr, 2002; Suthipun, 2005; Dixon, 1999). The effect of
auto-camera enforcement systems is shown in Figures 4 and 5 and Tables 5 and 6.
The speed reduction (deltaV) is discussed below.
1. The effect of speed control is found by combining the posted speed sign
with auto-camera enforcement systems. It can be seen that the average traffic speed,
the 85th percentile and 95th percentile speed were cut down from 2.0km/h to
10.0km/h respectively. Generally, the average delta V of all vehicles is negative
5.0km/h. The delta V of average speed and the 85th percentile speed for cars and
coaches ranges from negative 5.0km/h to negative 10.0km/h while their the delta V
of maxium speed reaches negative 10km/h or more. The delta V of average speed and
the 85th percentile speed for trucks is usually within negative 5.0km/h. This implies
that the active deterrence effect of the combination a sign with an auto-camera
enforcement system is significant.
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Figure 4. Speed change before and after 40km/h posted speed

signs and auto-camera enforement system.

Figure 5. Speed change before and after 60km/h posted

speed signs and auto-camera enforement system.

Table 5. Speed change before and after 70km/h posted speed signs and auto-
camera enforement system.
parameter before posted speed sign after posted speed sign speed increment
car all car
all car and all
truck and truck vehicl and truck
vehicle coach vehicle
coach e coach

samples 187 130 57 187 130 57 187 130 57

average speed 61.0 66.1 57.0 56.7 59.6 53.7 -4.2 -6.4 -3.4
Std. Deviation 11.0 12.6 7.6 9.3 9.1 8.6 -1.7 -3.5 1.0
minimum speed 27.0 43.0 27.0 27.0 38.0 27.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0
maximum speed 91.0 91.0 75.0 83.0 83.0 71.0 -8.0 -8.0 -4.0

85th percentile speed 73.0 80.7 63.0 65.0 68.7 62.0 -8.0 -12.0 -1.0

90th percentile speed 78.0 82.1 65.0 67.4 70.0 63.0 -10.6 -12.1 -2.0
th
95 percentile speed 82.0 86.0 68.5 70.2 74.3 64.0 -11.8 -11.7 -4.5
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98th percentile speed 86.0 88.0 73.0 77.6 79.0 65.7 -8.4 -9.0 -7.3

Table 6. Speed change before and after 80km/h posted speed signs and auto-
camera enforement system.
parameter before posted speed sign after posted speed sign speed increment
all car and all car and all car and
truck truck truck
vehicle coach vehicle coach vehicle coach

samples 234 170 64 234 170 64 234 170 64

average speed 68.4 74.7 51.7 61.8 67.4 49.1 -6.6 -7.3 -2.6
Std. Deviation 19.6 17.6 14.0 17.1 15.5 13.3 -2.5 -2.1 -0.6
minimum speed 28.0 28.0 28.0 20.0 30.0 20.0 -8.0 2.0 -8.0
maximum speed 116.0 116.0 88.0 107.0 107.0 72.0 -9.0 -9.0 -16.0

85th percentile speed 88.0 91.4 63.4 79.7 84.5 65.0 -8.3 -6.9 1.6

90th percentile speed 92.4 94.0 66.0 84.9 86.3 67.1 -7.5 -7.7 1.1

95th percentile speed 99.6 106.0 76.9 90.0 90.2 70.1 -9.6 -15.9 -6.8
th
98 percentile speed 110.4 112.3 85.5 94.9 100.6 72.0 -15.5 -11.7 -13.5

2. Drivers traveling at high speeds will decelerate or control speed when they
detect signs with auto-camera enforcement systems. The delta V is generally
determined by the difference of traveling speed and posted speed limit. Large
differences may result in a large magnitude of deceleration. The sample dataset
implies that a vehicle just passing by the posted speed signs and auto-camera
enforcement system, has a strong relation to the percentage of the difference

between and posted speed. Figure 6 shows the relationship between λ and Ψ

by the application of cubic regression to the car sample dataset. The cubic regression

is presented by the Equation(2) and can be predicted by Equation(3).

Ψ= -0.20λ3 - 0.05λ2 - 0.44λ （2）

（3）

Where:

λ-the percentage of the difference between and the posted speed to the

posted speed when a car approaches posted speed signs and auto-camera
enforcement systems;
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Ψ-the percentage of the difference between and to

when car just passes by posted speed signs and auto-camera enforcement systems;

Figure 6 . Relationship between λ and Ψ.

Table 7. Comparion the result of predictionΨwith field observedΨ.*

λ Ψ Ψ*
5% -2.2% -1.0%
10% -4.5% -3.0%
20% -9.2% -8.0%
30% -14.2% -14.0%
40% -19.7% -20.0%
50% -25.8% -25.0%
60% -32.5% -30.0%
70% -40.1% -40.0%

3. Drivers who are traveling at a lower speed than the posted speed limit will
control speed or acelerate slightly after entering the speed zone of the auto-camera
enforcement systems.
4. Illegal behavior declines remarkably where posted speed signs and auto-
camera enforcement system are located, because most drivers will obey traffic
regulations to avoid taking risks of detection and punishment for noncompliance
(Garber, 2003; Haglund, 2000; Zhong, 2008). Less than five percent of drivers travel
at higher speeds than the speed limit, including some of them who underestimate or
misjudge their speed or fail to notice the speed limit sign. That is, less than two
percent of drivers travel at excessive speeds.
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4. QUESTIONNAIRES
In this study, questionnaires were distributed randomly to 350 drivers who
have ever driven on national highways. Fifteen questions were included in the
questionnaire, whose purpose is shown as follows: 1)To reveal the attitudes
regarding speed limit and safety enforcement and 2)To obtain drivers’ suggestions
for speed management. The results from the questionnaire are described below.
The reasonable speed limit is around 70km/h-80km/h. Sixty-three percent of
those surveyed believed that a 70km/h speed limit is reasonable when traveling on
national highways while 17 percent of those surveyed believed that 80km/h speed
limit is more reasonable. This means that the 40km/h-60km/h speed limit is too low
on some segments, which led to many drivers to overspeed.
More than 86 percent of drivers think the speed limit should differ between
cars and trucks since most cars travel far faster than trucks. Simply posting a speed
limit sign will not achieve desired driving speeds. Thirty-nine percent of drivers
believe that they will control speed while only 12 percent of drivers rigidly adhere to
the posted speed limit. Twenty-six percent of drivers think they determine the
appropriate driving speed not by posted speed signs but by road surroundings，
traffic volume and their experience, and so they often disregard the posted speed
limit signs. Thirty-five percent of drivers say that their compliance level depends on
the level of speed monitoring and risks of penalty, which means they do not comply
with the posted speed limit all the time.
Auto-camera enforcement systems or photo radar increases the effects of
posted speed limit signs significantly. Ninety-eight percent of drivers were sure that
they would comply with the speed limit if there were an auto-camera enforcement
system or photo radar. They also believed that auto-camera enforcement systems can
deter noncompliers. Those surveyed also indicated that they ususally accelerate after
passing a posted speed sign. This indicates that more groups of auto-camera
enforcement systems should be installed along hazardous roads to extend the time
and distance of enforcement.
Ninety-four percent of those surveyed said that auto-camera enforcement
system to be more efficent and effective than that of vibrational deceleration marking,
visual deceleration marking or color pavement in order to effectively deter speeding.

5. CONCLUSION & SUGGESTION

Speed limits and speeding auto-enforcement systems are hot topics in China.
This paper is supported by the project “Study on Speed Limit for National and
Provincial Highways in Guangdong Province” and “Research on Speed Limit
Criterion and Tactic of Speed Control for Highway in West Area of China”. It is
assumed that the driver controls speed and complies with speed limits voluntarily.
But most drivers usually travel faster than speed limit on some highway sections
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 341
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(Jiang, 2003; Jian 2005; Lee, 2004). What is the real effect of speed limit signs? This
paper focused on evaluating the effects of posted speed limit signs and automated
speed camera enforcement systems. Based on the analysis above, the conclusions and
suggestions are as follows.
1. Unreasonable posted speed limit signs have little effect on drivers. The
speed limit is too low on some national highway sections, since the average speed
and the 85th percentile speed exceed the speed limit greatly. It is suggested that the
too-low speed limit in rural areas should be adjusted to around 60km/h to 80km/h
according to operating speed and highway surroundings.
2. Simply posting a speed limit sign will not achieve desired driving speeds.
Posted speed limit signs have only a small effect on adjusting the average traffic
speed, the 85th percentile and 95th percentile speed if no speeding enforcement is
present. Enforcement and sanctions are necessary complements to speed limits.
3. The effect of speed control is found by combining posted speed limit signs
with auto-camera enforcement systems. To a great extent, the ratio of drivers
complying with the speeds limits or not depends on the enforcement level. Illegal
behavior declines remarkably where posted speed signs and auto-camera
enforcement system are located.
4. It is suggested that posted speed limit signs with groups of auto-camera
enforcement systems may be effective at high-hazard locations and on roads where
high-risk, speed-related behaviors are the most common.
5. Speed limits for cars and trucks should be different if most cars travel far
faster than trucks, which will be met with most drivers’ satisfaction and increase the
ratio of complying with speed limit.

REFERENCE
Dixon, K.K., Wu C., Sarasua, W. and Daniel J. (1999) . “Posted and Free-Flow
Speeds For Rural Multilane Highways in Georgia.” Journal of
Transportation Engineering, 199(11), 487-494.
Fildes, B.N. and Lee, S.J. (1993). “The Speed Review: Road Environment, Behavior,
Speed Limits, Enforcement and Crashes.” Report CR 127 (FORS) CR 3/93
(RSB), Federal Office of Road safety and the Road Safety Bureau, Roads
and Traffic Authority of New South Wales. 133-135
Fitzpatrick, K. and Carlson, P. et al. (2003). “ Design Speed, Operating Speed, and
Posted Speed Practices.” NCHRP Report 504. Transportation Research
Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Garber, N.J., Miller, J.S., Yuan, B. and Sun, X. (2003). “Safety Effects of
Differential Speed Limits on Rural Interstate Highways.” Transportation
Research Board the 82nd Annual Meeting, Transportation Research
Record 1830, 12–16.
Haglund, M. and Aberg, L. (2000). “Speed Choice in Relation to Speed Limit and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 342
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Influences From Other Drivers.” Transportation Research Part F, 3(1), pp.

39-51.
Jiang J. (2005) “Rationality of Speed Limit.”Road Traffic Management, China. No.8
47.
Jian J., Jaehyun P. and Juan C.P. (2003). “Criteria for Setting Speed Limits in Urban
and Suburban Areas In Florida.” Florida department of Transportation,
USA. 8-16.
Kara K. (2006). “Safety Impacts and Other Implications of Raised Speed Limits on
High-Speed Roads.” Final Report NCHRP Project 17-23. Transportation
Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C. 68-70, 125
Kathleen A. H. and John R. B.(2007). “Evaluating the Effectiveness of the
Minnesota Speed Management Program.” Final Report, Minnesota
Department of Transportation, USA. 43-47.
Lee, C., Hellinga, B. and Saccomanno, F. (2004). “Assessing Safety Benefits of
Variable Speed Limits.” Transportation Research Board the 83rd Annual
Meeting, Transportation Research Record 1897, 4-6.
Li C, Wu J. (2006). “Analysis of Speed Limit Methods and
Applicability.”Transportation Science & Technology, China.No.6: 66
Ministry of Public Security P. R. China 1990-2006, Crashes of Data of China Annual
Report.
Schurr, K. S., McCoy, P. T. and Pesti, G. et al.(2002). “Relationship Between
Design, Operating, and Posted Speeds on Horizontal Curves on Rural
Two-Lane Highways in Nebraska.” Transportation Research Board 83th
Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Record 1794, 3–6.
Suthipun T., en-etsu U. and eiichi K.( 2005). “ Management in Terms of Speed Limit
in Hokkaido Area.” Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation
Studies, Vol. 6, 2243 – 2257.
Transportation Research Board.(1998). “Managing Speed: Review of Current
Practice for Setting and Enforcing Speed Limits.” TRB Special Report
254. Transportation Research Board, National Research Council,
Washington, DC.22-29, 36-66, 186.
Zhong X.M, Q. Jin et al.(2008), “Setting speed limits for national and provincial
highways.” 10th Internotional Conference on Application of Advanced
Technologies in Tronsportotion (AATT2008, in Athens, Greece)（CD-

ROM ） , Transportation Research Board, National Research Council,

Washington, DC.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 343
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Dynamic Response Characteristics of Joint Between Working Shaft and Tunnel

under Train Vibration Loads
Haibing CAI1,2, Limin PENG1, Juan HUANG1
1
School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Central South University, Changsha
Hunan 410075, China
2
School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Anhui University of Science and
Technology, Huainan Anhui 232001, China
E-mail contact of main author: haibingcai@163.com

ABSTRACT
The Shi Ziyang tunnel is the first underwater tunnel for high speed railways
in China. It is constructed by the open cut method and shield method. The joint
between the working shaft and two side tunnels (shield tunnel and open cut tunnel)
is a special space crossing structure, and dynamic response characteristics of the
joint are quite complicated under train vibration loads. Therefore, a three
dimensional numerical model of the joint is established. Vibrating response analysis
on the complicated structure under train loads is conducted with FLAC3D. The
displacement and stress response rule of key points in the joint are obtained. In the
process of train loads excitation, vertical and horizontal convergence displacement
of the joint between the working shaft and open cut tunnel are respectively 0.402mm
and 0.109mm, and vertical and horizontal convergence displacement of the joint
between the working shaft and shield tunnel are respectively 0.293mm and
0.235mm. Peak values of tensile stress and compressive stress of all key points are
all less than the strength design value of concrete. Thus, in further analysis, which is
presented here, the joint has a better anti-vibration ability. The research results have
important reference value not only on the dynamic stability evaluation of tunnel
structures but also on the tunnel construction design of high speed railways.

1. INTRODUCTION
The length of newly-built railways in China will be 17,000 km by the end of
the eleventh five-year plan, among which, the length of high-speed railways will be
7,000 km and its design speed will reach 350 km/h. Because China consists of vast
territory and complex topography, high technical standards and large line curve radii
are required in high-speed railways. Thus, the selection of line design will inevitably
involve a large number of tunnels.
As the train speeds increase, the impact vibration of high-speed strain
operating on the track is even greater, and the vibration wave of the track system
passing the tunnel structure has correspondingly increased. This requires the tunnel
structure to have a higher dynamic stability. Therefore, research on antivibration
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characteristics of tunnel structures under train vibration loads is of great significance

for ensuring safety of train operations.
Some scientists have already made some investigations in this field. F.Guan
et al. (1994) analyzed the dynamic response of main tunnels and auxiliary tunnels
when the train passed the main tunnel with constant speed, and interaction between
soil and the tunnel was researched. Li (1997) simulated the vertical dynamic loading
of running trains and analyzed the dynamic response of tunnel lining to train
vibrations by a finite element method based on the vertical accelerations on the rail
bottom obtained by in-situ tests. Sometimes there are large cross-section tunnels for
highways and railways. Zhang et al. (2001) studied the dynamic response of tunnels
subjected to the passage of high speed train loads by adopting a finite element
method, incorporating nonlinear stress-strain relationships of material using the
Mohr-Coulomb criteria. When two tunnels closely overlap, dynamic waves interfere
with each other. Chen et al. (2002) analyzed the dynamic response of overlapping
tunnels in close proximity to the Nanpu Bridge Project due to the vibrating load of
trains, by using the software ANSYS. Li et al. (2005) analyzed the dynamic response
of a large cross-section tunnel under the vibrating load by an elastoplastic finite
element method. Gong et al. (2005) studied the variation of pore pressure and
liquefaction of soil in metro lines.
In this study, dynamic response characteristics of the joint between the
working shaft and tunnel under train vibration loads are analyzed by FLAC3D for
the Shi Ziyang tunnel which is an underwater shield tunnel on the Guangzhou-
Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway.

2. PROJECT OVERVIEW
Shi Ziyang tunnel is the first underwater tunnel for high speed railways in
China. It is constructed by the open cut method and shield method. The length of the
tunnel is 10,800m, of which, shield tunnel’s length is 9,277m, working shaft ’s
length is 46m, and open cut tunnel’s length is 597m.
Two working shafts (import working shaft and export working shaft) are set
up in Shi Ziyang tunnel, and the two working shafts are both located between the
open cut tunnel and the shield tunnel. Dynamic and static characteristics of the
working shaft are very complex because of construction methods and structure
performance. The joint between the working shaft and two side tunnels (shield
tunnel and open cut tunnel) is a special space crossing structure, and dynamic
response characteristics of the joint are more complicated under train vibration loads.
Based on this, dynamic response characteristics analysis of the joint between the
working shaft and tunnel under train vibration loads is important for ensuring
reasonable design planning and structure design.
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The import working shaft is constructed through the underground diaphragm

wall method. The material used for the diaphragm wall is reinforced concrete C35,
for the open cut tunnel lining is reinforced concrete C35, and for the shield tunnel
lining is reinforced concrete C50.

3. NUMERICAL MODEL
In order to analyze the dynamic response characteristics of the joint, a 3D
numerical model has been established in this paper. Limited by the capability of a
personal computer and the rigorous requirements of dynamic analyses for computers,
the numerical model could not be too large. In the model, the import working shaft
is selected as the center and the longitudinal length of the open cut tunnel and shield
tunnel are both 40m .The model size is 150 m in width, 103 m in length and 80 m in
depth, as shown below in Figure 1.

open cut tunnel

working shaft

shield tunnel

(a) Grid of 3D model (b) Grid of joint

Figure 1. Computational model.

The material behavior is assumed to be governed by an elastoplastic

constitutive relation based on the Mohr-Coulomb criterion.

1 + sin ϕ 1 + sin ϕ
fs = σ1 − σ 3 + 2c (1)
1 − sin ϕ 1 − sin ϕ

Where σ 1 is maximum principal stress, σ 3 is minimum principal stress, c is

cohesion, ϕ is internal friction angle. When f s > 0 , tensile failure occurs, and vice
versa shear failure occurs.
A large number of experimental results show that soil is a rate-dependent
material, of which, dynamic mechanical properties and static mechanical properties
have a great difference. If static mechanical parameters of materials are used for
dynamic response analysis, compared with the actual situation, the calculation
results could result in a large margin of error. So in the model, strength and elastic
aspects of the material are increased by about 30% (Zhu et al., 2005).
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For the shield tunnel, the effects of the shield segment joint are considered
by reducing the overall flexibilty of the shield segment. In the process of numerical
simulation, as to reinforced concrete C50 shield segment which is installed with
alternate joint mode, the reduction coefficient of the segment stiffness is set as 0.75
(Yin et al., 1999; Huang et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2005).
Tables 1 and 2 show the mechanical parameters of the materials. Elastic
modulus of reinforced concrete C50 is the value after reduction in Table 2.

Table 1. Mechanical parameters of soil.

Elastic Internal
Depth Density Poisson's Cohesion
Soil properties Modulus friction
(m) (kg/m3) ratio (MPa)
(MPa) angle(°)
Fine sand 0-7m 1900 20 0.28 0 30
Clay 7-29m 1920 5 0.35 36 20
weathered rock 29-40m 2400 2530 0.23 150 50
Bedrock 40-80m 2600 8800 0.15 6300 60

Table 2. Mechanical parameters of reinforced concrete.

Density Elastic Modulus Poisson's
Reinforced concrete
(kg/m3) (MPa) ratio
C50 (Shield tunnel) 2600 26300 0.17
C35 (Open cut tunnel and Working shaft) 2450 31500 0.20

Vertical and horizontal displacement are fixed at the bottom surface of the
model, with horizontal displacement only fixed at four sides of the model, and the
top surface of the model in free boundary.
In order to eliminate the reflection of scattered waves on the artificial
boundary and to simulate the elastic recovery within reasonable limits on the far-
field, the quiet-boundary scheme proposed by Lysmer and Kuhlemeyer (1969),
involving dashpots attached independently to the boundary, was adopted. The
dashpots may provide viscous traction stresses in both normal and shear directions:
σ = − ρV pυ n ⎫
⎬ (2)
τ = − ρVsυτ ⎭
Where σ and τ are the viscous traction stresses in normal and shear directions, ρ
is the mass density, V p and Vs , are the p- and s-wave velocities, υ n and υτ , are the
normal and shear components of the velocity at the boundary.
Rayleigh damping was used in the model. The equations are expressed as:
C = αM + β K (3)
Where C is damping matrix, M is mass matrix, K is stiffness matrix, α is mass
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damping constant , and β is stiffness damping constant.

Given multiple degrees-of-freedom, the coefficients can be found from:
ξ k = α 2ω k + βω k 2 (k = 1, 2 ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ , n ) (4)
Where ξ k is the critical damping ratio ω k is the angular frequency of the system.
Based on the equation of free vibrations, two angular frequencies ( ω i and ω j )
can be obtained. From lab or site tests two critical damping ratios ( ξ i and ξ j ) can be
obtained. Therefore, according to Eq. (4), α and β can be obtained. If ω i = ω j = ω 0 ,
then:
α = ξ 0ω 0 ⎫
⎬ (5)
β = ξ 0 ω0 ⎭

Where ω 0 is the basic frequency and ξ 0 the damping ratio corresponding to ω 0 . Ac-
cording to the calculation of experience, ξ 0 =0.05 in the calculation.
The vertical vibrating load excited by a train can be expressed by an exciting
force function expressed as (Li et al., 2005):
F (t ) = p0 + p1 sin(ω1t ) + p2 sin(ω2t ) + p3 sin(ω3t ) (6)
Where p 0 is the wheel weight and p1 , p 2 , p3 are the three typical values of vibrating
loads corresponding, respectively, to three controlling conditions of ① the easement
of rails, ② the additional vibrating load enforcing on rails and ③ the wastage of
wave shapes. These three controlling conditions are named briefly as Condition-
①②③ in the following section. If the unsprung weight of a train is set to M 0 , then
the typical value of the vibrating load can be expressed by the following formula:
p i = M 0 ai ω i2 （i=1,2,3） (7)
Where pi is the typical arrow height and ω i the circular frequency of vibrating
wavelengths. Both ai and ω i correspond to Condition-①②③ and ω i can be
obtained from:
ω i = 2πv / Li （i =1,2,3） (8)
Where ν is the velocity of the train and Li the typical wavelength corresponding to
Condition-①②③.
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250

200

150

F(KN)
100

50

-50

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

t(s)

Figure 2. Vibrating load history of train.

According to some investigators (Li et al., 2005; Zhang et al., 2002; Li et al.,
2001), p 0 =170 kN and M 0 =750 kg; L1 =10 m, a1 =3.5 mm; L2 =2 m, a 2 =0.4 mm;
L3 =0.5 m, a3 =0.08 mm and v =350 km/h. Therefore, according to Eqs. (6)-(8), the
relationship curve of exciting force F(t) and time at t = 0-0.5s is shown in Figure 2.
The vibrating load is applied to the model.

4. CALCULATION RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

4.1. Displacement of the joint between working shaft and tunnel
As shown in Figure 3, section 1-1 is in the joint between the working shaft
and the open cut tunnel. In this section, Point A is located at the top of the joint,
while Point B is located at the bottom of the joint. Point C is located at the middle of
the joint on the left side, while Point D is located at the middle of the joint on the
right side.

Shield tunnel Working shaft Open cut tunnel

Figure 3. Joint between working shaft and open cut tunnel.

In the process of train loads excitation, vertical displacement-time curves of

points A and B are shown in Figure 4. From the figure we can see that the rules of
two curves of vertical displacement-time are similar in pattern as a whole, and
vertical displacements of the two points are in the same direction. Within two
seconds, the maximum vertical displacements of points A and B are respectively,
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-7.811 mm and -7.887 mm. The maximum value of A-B vertical relative
displacement (vertical convergence displacement of the joint between working shaft
and open cut tunnel) is only 0.402mm.
0 0.04
A
B 0.02
-2
displacement(mm)

displacement(mm)
C
0.00 D
-4
-0.02

-6 -0.04

-0.06
-8

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 -0.08

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
t(s) t(s)

Figure 4. Vertical displacement- Figure 5. Horizontal

displacement-time curves of points A and B. time curves of
points C and D.

Figure 5 presents the horizontal displacement-time curves of points C and D.

As is shown in Figure 5, the rules of the two curves of horizontal displacement-time
are different in pattern in the process of train loads excitation. Within two seconds,
the maximum horizontal displacements of points C and D are, respectively, 0.019
mm and -0.045 mm. The maximum value of C-D horizontal relative displacement
(horizontal convergence displacement of the joint between the working shaft and
open cut tunnel) is only 0.109mm.
As shown in Figure 6, section 2-2 is the joint between the working shaft and
shield tunnel. In the section, Point E is located at the top of the joint, while Point F is
located at the bottom of the joint. Point G is located at the middle of the joint on the
left side, while Point H is located at the middle of the joint on the right side.

Shield tunnel Working shaft Open cut tunnel

Figure 6. Joint between working shaft and shield tunnel.

In the process of train loads excitation, vertical displacement-time curves of

points E and F are shown in Figure 7. From the figure we can see that the rules of
two curves of vertical displacement-time are similar in pattern as a whole, and
vertical displacements of the two points are in the same direction. Within two
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 350
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seconds, the maximum vertical displacements of points E and F are, respectively,

10.08 mm and -10.02 mm. The maximum value of E-F vertical relative displacement
(vertical convergence displacement of the joint between the working shaft and shield
tunnel) is only 0.293 mm.
0
0.08

-2 0.04
E

displacement(mm)
F
displace(mm)

-4 0.00 G
H
-0.04
-6
-0.08
-8
-0.12
-10
-0.16
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
t(s) t(s)

Figure 7. Vertical displacement-time Figure 8. Horizontal displacement-

curves of points E and F . time curves of points G and H.

Figure 8 presents the horizontal displacement-time curves of points G and H.

As is shown in Figure 8, the rules of two curves of horizontal displacement-time are
different in pattern in the process of train loads excitation. Within two seconds, the
maximum horizontal displacements of points G and H are, respectively, -0.1525 mm
and 0.093 mm. The maximum value of G-G horizontal relative displacement
(horizontal convergence displacement of the joint between the working shaft and
shield tunnel) is only 0.235 mm.
4.2. Stress of the joint between the working shaft and tunnel
Principal stress time history of the four key points in section 1-1 are obtained.
Due to the limited space of this paper, the first principal stress-time curves of point
C are shown in Figure 9, and the third principal stress-time curves of point B are
shown in Figure 10.
0.16
-0.48
0.14
-0.51
stress(MPa)
stress(MPa)

0.12 -0.54

0.10 -0.57

-0.60
0.08
-0.63
0.06
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
t(s) t(s)

Figure 9. The first principal Figure 10. The third principal stress-
time curves of point C. stress-time curves of point B.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 351
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The results show that the first principal stresses of the four points are mainly
tensile stress, herein, tensile stresses of points A and B are comparatively large
compared with points C and D. In the process of train loads excitation, peak values
of tensile stress of points A and B are, respectively, 0.391 MPa and 0.312 MPa.
Peak values of tensile stress of the four points are all less than the tensile strength
design value of C35 concrete. The third principal stresses of the four points are
mainly compressive stress. Peak values of tensile stress of the four points are also
less than the compressive strength design value of C35 concrete, showing that the
joint between the working shaft and open cut tunnel has compressive performance
under train vibration loads.
Principal stress time history of the four key points in section 2-2 are also
obtained. The first principal stress-time curves of point E are shown in Figure 11,
and the third principal stress-time curves of point F are shown in Figure 12.
0.50 -0.2

0.45 -0.3

0.40 -0.4
stress(MPa)

stress(MPa)

0.35 -0.5

0.30 -0.6

0.25 -0.7

0.20 -0.8

0.15 -0.9
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
t(s) t(s)

Figure 11. The first principal Figure 12. The third principal stress-
time curves of point E. stress-time curves of point F.

The results show that the first principal stresses of the four points are mainly
tensile stress in the process of train loads excitation. In the section 2-2, peak values
of tensile stress of points E, F, G and H are, respectively, 0.488 MPa , 0.214 MPa,
0.209 MPa and 0.237MPa, which are all less than the tensile strength design value
of C35 concrete. The third principal stresses of the four points are mainly
compressive stress. Peak values of compressive stress of points E, F, G and H are,
respectively, -1.024 MPa, -0.835 MPa, -1.992 MPa and -2.661 MPa, which are all
less than the compressive strength design value of C35 concrete.

5. CONCLUSIONS
In the process of train vibration loads excitation, vertical convergence
displacement of the joint between the working shaft and open cut tunnel is only
0.402 mm, and horizontal convergence displacement of the joint between the
working shaft and open cut tunnel is only 0.109 mm. Vertical convergence
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 352
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displacement of the joint between the working shaft and shield tunnel is only 0.293
mm, and horizontal convergence displacement of the joint between the working
shaft and shield tunnel is only 0.235 mm. Existing studies have shown that the
convergence deformation design value of the tunnel during train operating periods is
generally (1-5)D‰ (Ye, 2007), where D is tunnel diameter. For this tunnel, the
diameter is 10.8m, thus the convergence deformation design value is 10.8mm. We
can see that deformation of the joint between the working shaft and tunnel meet the
application requirements under train vibration loads. Peak values of tensile stress
and compressive stress of all key points are all less than the strength design value of
concrete, showing that the joint has better antivibration characteristics under train
vibration loads.
The research results of this paper have important reference value not only for
the dynamic stability evaluation of tunnel structures but also for the tunnel
construction design of high speed railways.

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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 354
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Study on The Relationship Between Speed Difference and Crash Rate on

Freeway
Dianjian HOU 1 Jixiang HAN 2 Xiaoduan SUN 1 Yulong HE 1
1.Beijing University Of Technology, Beijing Key Lab of Transportation Engineering
Beijing, 100124; telephone: 13810885639; email: houdianjian@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2.Jining Planning Design And research Insititute, Jining 272000.
ABSTRACT: this paper studied the relationship between speed differences and
crash rates using nine of china freeway’s speed and accident data. Research shows
that the accident rate has correlations with the dispersion of speed. According to the
accident rate and speed scatter Distribution, three kinds of models will be carried out,

analyzing the significant level of F, as well as ’ amendment .Arrived at the index

distribution model of accident rate and speed standard deviation .

INTRODUCTION
There were 10.6 million people killed because of speeding in the past decade of
1995-2004. In 2007, there were 327,209 road accidents all over the country, which
cause 81,649 people deaths and 380,442 people injuries, and 1.2 billion in direct
property damage. The number of accidents caused by speeding was 33,487, including
11,478 fatal accidents, 36,633 people injured and the property loss amounted to 134
million, which was second in the number of accidents and first in the death toll and
property loss. Statistics in China and abroad show that the speed-related accidents
account for about one third of the traffic accidents, which ranking second only
inferior to pilot human factors. Relationships between speed and accident should
really be worthy of our enlightenment.
From the intuitive point of view, the relationship between speed and accident
rate is that the higher of the speed the more of the incident, and the larger of the
seriousness, but they are not a simple linear relationship between. In 1964, David
Solomon observed 10,000 drivers on a freeway of 600km, and obtained the
relationship between the accident rate and the speed of a "U"-shaped curve. When
the speed comes close the average speed, the accident rate is low, while it is away
from the average speed accident rate is high. Thus, to arrive at the impact
relationship of the discrete nature of speed on traffic accidents, Professor Sun
Xiaoduan in Louisiana University had pointed out that speed difference has become
one of the common problems in China highway safety, in Jing-jin-tang freeway
safety assessment. We can see that speed difference impact on freeway safety is

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worthy of our associated research.

1 DATA ACQUISITION AND DESCRIPTION
9 freeways were taken as the research object. The data of the six in which were
adopted as someone else's accident statistics, three of which were obtained by our
own on-site investigate, speed is collected by MC5600 which is produced by micro
company in Australian, and accident data is provided by the local traffic police and
road administration departments. The study includes the plains and mountain
freeways, therefore, there is a certain reference value to different conditions highway
of China. The accident rate is used by accident rate per 100 million vehicle kilometer;
its calculated formula is as follows:
N
HMVK = ∗ 10 8 （1）
365 ∗ AADT ∗ L
where HMVK is accident rate per 100 million vehicle kilometer, AADT is average
annual traffic volume, N is The number of traffic accident (times/year), and L is Mileage
(km).
Preliminary statistics situation of the speed and accidents on the nine freeways,
as shown in Table 1:
Table.1 freeway and accident statistics.
Mean Speed Speed standard N
Freeway L (km) HMVK
(km/h) deviation (km/h) (times/year)
Cheng-yu
87.61 17.16 206 114 23
freeway
Shi-tai
71 20.32 244 213.4 29
freeway
Guang-fu
58.13 13.01 145 16 21
freeway
Jing-shi
93 26.63 1065 269.6 45
freeway
Hu-ning
79.86 14.22 194 74.08 21
freeway
Shen-da
79.5 12.73 887 375 19
freeway
Jing-jin-tang
88.7 22.57 140 35 31
freeway
An-xin
85.71 29.254 29 134 5
freeway
Yu-qian
106.72 28.54 304 102 51
freeway
2 DATA ANALYSIS
The entire data processing is through the statistical software named SPSS to

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do the relevant analysis, and identification and exclusion its impact through the
exploratory analysis. The distribution of the scatter figure of the accident rate and the
speed of the standard deviation after the singular points removed，is as shown in
Figure 1.
std.d------hmvk scatterplot
30

28

26

24

22
STD.D

20

18

16

14

12

10
10 20 30 40 50 60

HMVK

Fig.1 the standard deviation of speed

and accident rate’s scatter figure.
From the figure above ， it is obvious that the accident rate has positive
correlation with the standard deviation of speed. Namely, with the increasing of the
speed standard deviation and accident rate, however, we can not determine its
function distribution through the overall distribution of apparent. We partly took
linear, exponential and logarithmic regression after a general observation and
correlation function curve analysis .Calibration of their models and parameters is as
follows:
Table.2 parameters.
Model type Constant DIF modulus R R2 F SigF
Linear 4.522900 0.495820 0.96521 0.93163 81.75834 0.0001
exponential 8.807626 0.024848 0.93420 0.87273 0.93420 0.0007
logarithmic -35.472224 16.434981 0.98638 0.97294 215.72577 0.0000
To arrive at the appropriate model:
Model 1:
AR = 4.523 + 0.496 ∗ DIF （2）
The coefficient of determination of model (The significant level of the constant
term is 0.042, and the significant level of independent variable is 0.001)

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R 2 = 0.93163 .
Model 2:
AR = 8.808 ∗ e 0.025DIF （3）
The coefficient of determination of model (The significant level of the constant
term is 0.002, and the significant level of independent variable is 0.007)

R 2 = 0.9273 .
Model 3:
AR = −35.472 + 16.435 ∗ ln( DIF ) （4）
The coefficient of determination of model (The significant level of the constant
term is 0.001, and the significant level of independent variable is 0.000)

R 2 = 0.97294 .
where AR is accident rate (accident rate per 100 million vehicle kilometer) and DIF
is speed standard deviation (km/h).
∑ ( yˆ − y ) 2
p
F= （5）
∑ ( y − y) 2

(n − p − 1)

where ŷ is the dependent variable test samples, y is the sample mean, p is the test

sample size, y is the total sample, n is the total number of samples.

R2 =
∑ ( yˆ − y ) 2

（6）
∑ ( y − y) 2

From above analysis, all the significant levels of F are less than 0.05, so the
relationship between independent variable and dependent variable form the three
models shows significant level. In other words, the models shows statistic
significance. The results of the final models fits are as shown in Figure 3:

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regression model
40

30
actual point
std.d

linear
20 exponential
logarithmic
10
10 20 30 40 50 60

HMVK
Fig. 2 fitting model.
From Figure 2, the pink shows the experimental line of samples, the blue
shows fit line of linear model, the cyan shows fit-line of logarithmic model, and the
red shows fit-line of exponential model. From Fig.3 and Table 2, the status shows the
fit-line of three models is very close to the experimental status. But from the
coefficient of determination of the models: the line’s is 0.93163, the logarithm’s is
0.8273, and the exponent’s is 0.97294, so the coefficient of determination of
exponential model is the highest one. Therefore, the goodness of fit-line of
exponential model is the highest one.
3CONCLUSION
This paper shows the relevant index between the standard deviation of speed
and accident rate by research the speed and traffic accident of nine freeways. The
major conclusions are as follows:
(a) When the right-hand of formula (4) equals to zero, the standard deviation
of speed equals to 8.5 instead of zero, which we expect. There is no way that the
standard deviation of speed equals to zero as a result of the existence of mixed traffic.
That is to say, when the standard deviation of speed equals to less than 8.5, the speed
will not impact on the accident rate.
(b) This paper shows the positive association between the standard deviation
of speed and accident rate. However, it can’t explain the clear laws of China highway
accident. On the one hand, the cause of accident is multifaceted. On the other hand,
the number of samples we collected is lower.
As is well known, the goal of freeway speed limits is not only to limit the
over-speed of freeway vehicles, but also to reduce the discrete nature of the speed.
However, according to our survey, as to cart, the relevant index between the speed
limit of freeway and operating accident rate is 0.2, but as to compact car, it is only
about 0.02. So drivers have misidentifications to the speed limit of freeway. We

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expect this paper can produce reference value to the speed limit of freeway in China
by researching the association between security and speed.
REFERENCES
[1] Ren Futian, Liu Xiaoming,etc. The research on road traffic security[A]. China
Communications Press, Beijing, 2001.1.
[2] ZHONG Lian-de, SUN Xiaoduan, CHEN Yong-sheng, etc. Relationships
Between Crash Rates and Average Speed Difference Between Cars and
Large Vehicles on Freeway [J].Journal of Beijing Polytechnic University,
2007.33(2).
[3] Sun Xiaoduan. The characteristics of freeway traffic accident in China from the
safety evaluation to Jing-Jin-Tan freeway[A].International Road Safety
Symposium, 2005.
[4] Federal Highway Administration .synthesis of safety research related to speed
and speed limits [R].Washington.DC:FHWA.1999.
[5] KLOEDEN C N.PIONT G.MCLEAN A J. Traveling speed and the risk of crash
involvement on rural roads [R].Adelaide, Australia: Road Accident
Research Unit, Adelaide university, 2003.
[6] HU Jiang-Bi, Liu Yuntong, Gao Wenxue. The plan design and traffic safety in
China[J]. The second academic conference memoir of China freeway
Society and freeway planning society

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Research on Defining the Geometry Index for Safe Driving at the Curving
and Sloping Sections for Freeway

Ke ZHENG 1 and Jian RONG 2

1Civil Engineering College, Fuzhou University, P.O.Box 350108; PH

(+86)13763832018; email: zh99k@163.com
2
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, P.O. Box100022

ABSTRACT
In this paper, advanced devices such as the dynamic GPS and dynamic
electrocardiogram equipment have been employed to monitor the car speed and the
driver’s heart rate in carefully designed driving tests. Thirteen selected drivers took
the tests by driving the standard cars recurrently through the same highway testing
section, which has the speed limit of 80 km/h and a length of 60km. The enormous
data extracted from the testing results have been summarized and analyzed in this
paper. Based on the correlation analysis, it can be concluded that the heart rate
increment of the driver strongly correlates with the combination index of the curving
and sloping section. On the other hand, no apparent correlation can be identified
between the driving speed and the heart rate increment. By applying the linear
regression analysis, a quantitative model has been established for the longitudinal
gradient, the radius of the horizontal curve, and the heart rate increment. The model
has been applied to retrieve the safety threshold values for the geometric design of
the curving and sloping sections at a specified speed limit. The research result of the
paper will provide the useful theoretical reference for revising the Design
Specification for Highway Alignment.

INTRODUCTION
As we know, it is uncomfortable and unsafe to drive at the curving and
sloping sections of a highway. The driver needs to adjust the steering-wheel
frequently. At the same time, he needs to brake or shift the gears often. When driving
at the down-hill section the driver has to brake often in order to reduce the propulsion
from the gravity. When driving at the up-hill section the driver has to shift gears to
increase the traction to overcome the resistance from gravity. If the highway is not
designed or aligned well the driver may enter a steep down-hill section at a high
speed. This could present a great challenge to the drivers depending on his driving
technique, self-possession, and responsiveness. Therefore, it could also increase the
chance of traffic accidents in this area.
Due to the sight limit and other factors, the driver normally drives more
carefully at the up-hill sections than at the down-hill sections. As a result, the driver
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is able to control the car better when driving at the up-hill sections. In this paper we
only study the test cases when the driver drives at the down-hill sections.

RESEARCH BACKGROUND
To understand the relationship between the highway alignment and the
driver’s psychological and physiological state, Bong-Jo et al.,(2001used an
electroencephalogram to study the influence of various highway alignments on the
drivers’ feeling of fatigue. It was revealed that, when driving at a curving section
with the length of 10 km, the brain wave β of the driver, which reflected his mental
activity, was much higher than the value when driving on a straight section with the
same length. Since the driver remained in a more active state when driving at a
curving section, he was not inclined to feel tired. Myungsoon et al.（2001）used an
electroencephalogram to study the mental activity of the driver when he enters the
ramp at the merging point. It was observed that driver’s brain wave β was much
higher when entering the ramp than merging into the parellel lane. Zhengke et al.
（2003）have performed the research on the relationship between the heart rate
increment and the car speed when the driver drives at the straight sections of the
highway. It has been observed that the driver’s heart rate only increased slowly with
the speed when the driver drives at the straight sections. The case of driving at the
curving sections has also been investigated. It has been shown above a threshold
value of the radius that the driver’s heart rate only increases slowly with the
reduction of the radius of the horizontal curve. However, beyond a threshold value of
the radius, the heart rate would increase rapidly with the reduction of radius.
Xiao-dong et al.（2005, 2006） studied the relationship between the driver’s state
such as the heart rate and blood pressure and the highway design parameters such as
the radius of the horizontal curve and the lateral force coefficient in the mountain
area. It has been found out that the driver’s heart rate increment and the upper limit
of the blood pressure strongly correlate with the radius of the horizontal curve and
the lateral force coefficient. The results suggest that for the sake of the drivers’
mental and physical safety, the radius of the horizontal curve of the dual lane
highway in the mountain areas should be at least 30m and the lateral force coefficient
should be no more than 0.2.

DEFINITION OF THE COMBINATION INDEX OF THE CURVING AND

SLOPING SECTION
To establish the regression model, we first introduce a couple of parameters
of the highway design: the longitudinal gradient i, which describes the slope of the
section, and the radius R, which describes the radius of the horizontal curve. The
qualitative analysis shows that the greater the longitudinal gradient i is, the harder the
driving will be; On the other hand, the smaller the radius of the horizontal curve R is,
the harder the driving will be. The above analysis reveals an inverse relationship
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between the slope i and the radius R. Thus, driving at a curving and sloping section
can be influenced by the combination index, i/R. If we represent the radius R in the
meter unit and the gradient i in the percentage form, then the number of i/R will be
too small as compared to the number of other parameters such as the speed V and the
heart rate increment. This could distort the computational results. Moreover, it is
inconvenient to analyze and compute the small numbers. For the sake of the
computational convenience, we represent the radius R in the unit of the km and the
gradient in the form of permillage. The combination index W of the horizontal and
longitudinal alignment will then be described in the form: W = i/R.

DATA PROCESSING AND MODEL ESTABLISHMENT

Data processing
We have collected an enormous amount of free-flow driving data at various
curving and sloping sections. Based on the driving data, we try to establish the
relationship between the car speed and the driver’s heart rate increment. The heart
rate increment measures the change of the heart rate when the driver is driving as
compared to when he is motionless. The data has been summarized in the Table 1.
Table1. Summary of Parameters When Driving at the Curving and Sloping
Sections.
Gradient
4.5 3 13 6.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 35.7 20 39.5 20 20 31
i(1/1000)
Horizontal curve
2000 700 1500 750 500 450 400 1500 700 1000 450 400 600
radius R
8.66 11.2 28.5 44.4
W=i/R 2.25 4.29 8.8 9 10 23.8 39.5 50 51.7
7 5 7 4
128. 113. 100.
Speed V(km/h) 113 120 119 121 111 110 106 116 98 108
5 8 5
Heart rate
18.9 20.5 19.7 18.7 17.4 19.0 19.8 21.8 19.7
increment 17.8 17.4 19.8 19.2
3 3 2 9 9 3 9 7 8
N(time/min)
slope i(1/1000) 30 25.5 39.5 33 32.4 33.3 35 35 31 38 50 50 29
Horizontal curve
545 400 600 500 440 450 470 400 350 300 350 350 200
radius R
55.0 65.8 73.6 74.4 88.5 110. 126. 142.
W=i/R 63.8 66 74 87.5 145
5 3 4 7 7 5 7 9
Speed V(km/h) 120 99.7 113 105 102 84 102 104. 83 87 99.3 86 86.3
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8 3
Heart rate
19.2 20.9 18.4 18.6 22.0 21.1 18.8 21.6 22.6
increment 21.2 19.2 20.6 23.2
7 8 3 1 1 2 7 2 5
N(time/min)
Table 1 shows that the heart rate increment N depends on 2 independent
variables: the combination index W and the speed V. We plot the heart rate increment
N against the W and V in the Figure 1 and Figure 2 respectively.

25
N(time/min)

20
15
10
5
0
0 50 100 150 200
W
Figure1. Relationship between the combination index W and the heart rate
increment at the curving and sloping sections.

25
20
N(time/min)

15
10
5
0
80 100 120 140
V(km/h)

Figure2. Relationship between the speed and the heart rate increment at the
curving and sloping sections.
Figure 1 illustrates the linear trend between the combination index W and the
heart rate increment N and Figure 2 illustrates the trend between the speed V and the
heart rate increment N. Since the scatter plots alone are not sufficient to obtain the
quantitative correlation, we use the statistics software named SPSS to quantitatively
analyze the data of W vs N and N vs V and display the outputs in Table 2 and Table
3.
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Table2. W and N Correlation.

W N
W Pearson
1 .670(**)
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .000
N 26 26
N Pearson
.670(**) 1
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .000
N 26 26
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed)
Table 3. V and N Correlation.
V N
V Pearson
1 -.457(*)
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .019
N 26 26
N Pearson
-.457(*) 1
Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed) .019
N 26 26
* Relavance is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
Table 2 shows a correlation coefficient of 0.67 between the combination
index W and the heart rate increment N. If we assume the correlation coefficient of 0
in the case of no correlation, then W and N exhibit an apparent positive correlation at
the significance level of 0.01. In other words, the driver’s mental tension at the
curving and sloping sections closely relates to the combination index W. The
correlation coefficient between V and N is about -0.457 as shown in Table3. If we
assume that the correlation coefficient is 0.019 in the case of no correlation, there is
only a weak negative correlation at the significance level of 0.01. Thus, no apparent
correlation can be identified between the mental tension and the driving speed.
Therefore, we only apply the linear regression analysis to the heart rate increment N
and the combination index W.

Model establishment
We input the data of W and N data in Table 2-1 to the statistics software SPSS.
After appropriately setting the statistic software parameters, we obtain the output as
shown in the Table 4, 5 and 6.
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Table 4. Model Summary.

Adjusted R Std. Error of
Model R R Square Square the Estimate
1 .670a .449 .426 1.17983
a Predictors: (Constant), W
Table 5. ANOVAb.
Sum of Mean
Model Squares df Square F Sig.
1 27.272 1 27.272 19.592 .000a
Regression 33.408 24 1.392
Residua 60.680 25
l
Total
a Predictors: (Constant), W
b Dependent Variable: N
Table 6. Coefficientsa.
Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients t Sig.
Model B Std. Error Beta
1
18.540 .389 47.680 .000
(Constant)
.025 .006 .670 4.426 .000
W
a Dependent Variable: N
The regression analysis reveals the correlation coefficient R of 0.67 and the
decision coefficient of 0.449. This implies a linear relationship between the heart rate
increment N and the combination index W. The t test of the regression coefficients
shows the results as: t=4.426 and P=0, which proves that the correlation is
significant. The regression equation between the N and W can be obtained as below:
N=0.025W+18.54 （1）
If we substitute W=i/R into formula (2-1) and represent the gradient i in the
percentage form and the radius R in the unit of meter, the equation will then be
transformed into (2):
i
N = 250 + 18.54
R （2）
L In the above formulas:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 366
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N——the average heart rate increment of the driver when driving at the
curving and sloping sections（time/min）；
W——the combination index of the curving and sloping section （1/1000
km）；
i——the longitudinal gradient（%）；
R——the horizontal curve radius（m）.
THE APPLICATION OF THE MODEL
The heart rate increment N in the formula 2 measures the extent of the
driver’s mental tension. Zhengke et al.（2003）discussed a threshold value of N,
beyond which the driver may be too nervous to drive safely. When N was below
19.31 time/min, the driver’s mental tension only increases slowly with the increasing
N, which would not affect the driving safety; however, when N went above 19.31
time/min, the drivers’ mental tension would increase hastily with increasing N, which
could threaten the driving safety. Therefore, N=19.31 times/min was regarded as the
safety threshold value. If we substitute this threshold value of N back to the formula
(2), then we can obtain a new equation:
i=0.00308R （3）
Formula 3 presents a constraint relationship between the horizontal curve
radius R and the gradient i. Therefore, to prevent the driver from feeling too much
pressure and ensure the driving safety, the combination index W at the curving and
sloping sections needs to be designed carefully. For example, if the horizontal curve
radius R already takes a small number, then the gradient i can’t take any number
higher than the constraint value defined by R. The constrained values of the radius R
and the gradient i can be calculated, according to the formula 3.

Table7. Control value corresponding to horizontal curve radius and grade at

curve and slope section.
Radius 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
R(m) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Grade 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
(%) 77 92 08 23 39 54 69 85 00 16 31 46 62 77 93
Table 7 defines the safety constraint values of the horizontal curve radius R
and the gradient i. The results will be useful for the geometry design of the curving
and sloping sections. If the geometrical parameters of a section ever go out of the
safety range as defined in Table 3-1, the section may be unsafe to drive on. As an
example, the《Design Specification for Highway Alignment》 specifies that the
minimum horizontal curve radius is 400 m when the speed limit is 80 km/h. If the
radius of the horizontal curve takes the value of 400 m, then the gradient of the
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section can be no more than 1.23% based on the results of this paper. Otherwise, the
section may not be safe to drive on.

CONCLUSIONS
(1) Driving tests have been carefully designed and performed. Enormous
testing data have been extracted and analyzed to lead to the research results in this
paper.
(2) The regression analysis has been applied to study the relationship between
the combination index W and the heart rate increment N, and also between the speed
V and heart rate increment N. It can be concluded that N strongly correlates with W,
while the correlation between the N and V is weak. The quantitative linear regression
model between the combination index W and the heart rate increment N has also
been established.
(3) The threshold values of the horizontal curve radius R and the longitudinal
gradient i have been calculated, by substituting the safety heart beat increment
threshold (N=19.24times/min) in the linear regression model. If the radius of 400 m
is taken for a horizontal curve, the longitudinal gradient at that section can be no
more than 1.12%. Otherwise, the section will be unsafe to drive on.

REFERENCES
Bong-Jo Chung, Jae-Beom Park, Ju-Young Kim, Myungsoon Chang. (2001). “Limit
Length Evaluation of Tangent on Freeway according to Driver’s
Physiological Response.”TRB ID Number: 01-3166.
Jans Aasman., Gijsbertus Mulder et al. (1987). “Operator effort and the measurement
of heart-rate variability.” Human Factors, 29(2),161-170.
Myungsoon Chang, Juyoung Kim, Kyungwoo Kang, Jungho Yun. (2001).
“Evaluation of Driver’s Psychophysiological Load at Freeway Merging
Area.” TRB ID Number: 01-0535.
Pan Xiao-dong，Lin Tao，Yang Zh. (2006). “Relationship Between the Variation of
Drivers Heart Rate and Systolic Blood Pressureand the Coefficient of
Transverse Force of Mountainous Highways.” Journal OF Tongji
University(Natural Science) Vol.34 No.6 Jun.2006, 748-751.
Pan Xiao-dong, Yang Zhen, Zhu Zhao-hon. (2005). “Relationship between Variation
of Drivers Heart Rate and Systolic Blood Pressure and Curvature Radius
of Mountainous Highways.: Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),
Vol.33 No.7 Jul.2005, 900-903.
Richter, Peter., Thomas Wager et al.(1998). “Psychophysiological analysis of mental
load during driving on rural road---a quasi-experimental field study.”
Ergonomics, Vol.41 593-609.
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Y. Ian Noy, 1997, “Human factors in modern traffic systems.” Ergonomics, Vol.40
1016-1024.
Zheng Ke. (2003). “Freeway Alinement Research Based on Driver s Psychological
and Physiological Reaction.” Beijing University of Technology
Zheng Ke, Ren Fu-tian. (2003). “Study on Driving Tenseness of Drivers on the
Straight Segment of Freeway.” Journal of Beijing University of
Technology, Vol.29 No.2, Jun.2003, 199-201.
Zheng Ke, Rong Jian, Ren Fu-tian. (2003). :Analyses of the Relation Among Driving
Tenseness of Drivers,Horizontal Radius and Driving Speed.” China Civil
Eegineering Journal, Vol.36 No.7, July.2003, 57-60.
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ISM Model of Factors Influencing Traffic Safety at Expressway Work Zone

Biao WU 1,2, Hongguo XU 1 and Wenhui ZHANG 1,3

1
College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130025, China; email:
xuhg@jlu.edu.cn
2
School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Heilongjiang Institute of Technology,
Harbin 150050, China; email: wu_sanhu@yahoo.com.cn
3
Traffic College, North East Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China; email:
rayear@163.com

ABSTRACT
As a dangerous area of expressways, work zones are home to traffic
congestion and various traffic incidents frequently occur due to the complicated
traffic status. According to the vehicles’ driving characteristics in expressway work
zones and a literature review, 23 factors on expressway work zone safety are selected
from the aspects of driver, vehicle, road and traffic environment. Based on finding
out the direct and indirect relations among these factors, a multilevel step-up
structural model on factors involved in the traffic safety of expressway work zones is
developed using the interpretative structural modeling (ISM) method. In terms of the
results of this hierarchical modeling, the key factors contributing to expressway work
zone safety are presented and relevant suggestions are put forward to provide a
scientific reference for construction organization, traffic control and environment
improvement at expressway work zones.

1. INTRODUCTION
The work zones on expressways are home to maintenance construction,
heavy maintenance, reconstruction and extension. Owing to the complexity of traffic,
the work zone is one of the places at which recurrent congestion and various
incidents occur frequently (HE Xiaozhou 2005). The work zone disturbs the regular
traffic flow and causes traffic safety issues. How to improve work zone safety
without sacrificing the function of expressways has received much attention from
traffic engineers and researchers.
In the field of work zone safety, Hargroves (1981), Stammer (1988) and
Pigman and Agent (1990) used crash data to investigate vehicle accidents and draw a
conclusion that the rate of traffic accidents occurring at expressway work zones was
increasing. Lorenz and Hall (1989) developed expressway work zone safety. Bryden
(1993) utilized the crash data to find that 2 to 3 percent of traffic accidents are
attributed to work zones, showing the risk level of work zones went up. Ha and
Nemeth (1996) presented a method for improving transportation infrastructures by
analyzing the characteristics of traffic safety at expressway work zones. Partrick
S.Byrd and Geza Pesti et al. (1999) considered the cause of traffic accidents to be
mandatory merging by analyzing the traffic conflicts on the merge areas of
expressway work zones. Bryden et al. (2000) analyzed fatal crashes of expressways
and discussed the driving characteristics of cars coming into expressway work zones.
Arditi D. et al. (2007) determined the safety differences between nighttime and
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daytime of expressway work zones by investigating traffic accidents that occurred at

expressway work zones in Illinois from 1996 to 2001. Li Yingfeng and Bai yong
(2008) presented the crash severity index (CSI) for work zone safety evaluation and
developed a set of CSI models via the modeling of work zone crash severity
outcomes. Wu Biao and Xu Hongguo (2009) presented a model on identifying
factors of the causes and effects on work zone safety based on the DEMATEL
method.
Work zone safety can be affected by combinations of various factors and
some combined effects might not be fully recognized during work zone design (LI
Yingfeng 2008). Identifying the significant factors is a critical step in enhancing
work zone safety. Here, a multilevel step-up structural model is developed to identify
the factors involved in expressway work zone safety. Twenty-three factors impacting
expressway work zone safety are given in the model from different aspects.
According to the results of this hierarchical modeling, the key risk factors are found.

2. FACTORS ON WORK ZONE SAFETY INCLUDED IN MODEL

Work zones are regarded as specific areas of expressway traffic systems, at
which traffic accidents occur as the outcome of intensifying traffic conflicts caused
by various factors such as driver, vehicle, road and traffic environment. It is a key
step to determine the risk factors on work zone safety by developing this model. The
factors on expressway work zone safety are given based on the theory of traffic
safety engineering and the driver-vehicle-road (environment) system. According to
the driving characteristics of vehicles in expressway work zones and a literature
review, 23 risk factors on expressway work zone safety are obtained from the aspects
of driver, vehicle, road and traffic environment (HOJJAT Adeli, F.ASCE 2004; LI
Yingfeng 2008), as listed in Table 1.

Table 1. Selected expressway work zone risk factors.

NO. Actual risk factors NO. Actual risk factors
01 age 11 surface type
road sub-systems

02 driving years 12 number of lane closures

sub-systems

03 gender 13 length of closure

driver

04 dynamic decision-making 14 lane width

05 fatigue driving 15 work zone location
06 drunken driving 16 work zone layout
07 speeding 17 speed limit
18 percentage of truck
08 type
environment
sub-systems

sub-systems

19 traffic volume
vehicle

20 safety devices layout

09 technical condition
21 weather condition
22 work duration
10 overload/oversize
23 light condition
3. FRAMEWORK OF ISM MODEL ON FACTORS OF EXPRESSWAY
WORK ZONE SAFETY
Basic principle and procedure of ISM. The ISM method was proposed to
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analyze complicated systems by J. Warfield in 1973. Utilizing the principle of

relating a matrix to analyze the integral structure of a complex system, the ISM
method translates the system structural analysis into the topology analysis and
algebraic analysis. Then, the ISM method further defines the system’s structural
characteristics based on the arithmetic of the relating matrix. The basic principle of
the ISM method is to utilize experts’ experience and knowledge to decompose a
complex system into several sub-systems (elements) and construct a multilevel
structural model (WANG Yingluo 1998; LI Zhenfu et al. 2007). The procedure of the
ISM method can be described briefly in Figure 1.
Raising a question and determining risk factors. In order to conveniently
construct the model, the risk factors including driver age, experience of driver, driver
gender, driver dynamic decision making, fatigue driving, drunken driving, speeding,
vehicle type, vehicle technical performance, overload/oversize, road surface type,
number of lane closures, length of closure, lane width, work zone location, work
zone layout, speed limit, percentage of truck, work zone traffic volume, safety
devices layout, weather condition, work duration and light condition, which
contribute to expressway work zone safety, are named S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7, S8, S9,
S10, S11, S12, S13, S14, S15, S16, S17, S18, S19, S20, S21, S22 and S23. Symbolically, the traffic
safety of expressway work zone can be expressed as a system including 23 factors as
defined above:
S = {S i i = 1,2, L , n} （1）
Where Si (i=1, 2, ···, n) represents the factor influencing on expressway work zone
safety.
Constructing directed
Raising a question graph
f l
Implementation

Adjacent Matrix A
Determining risk
factors Boolean
Reachable Matrix R
No Generate
Structural drawing of
Satisfied system
or not
Substitute
Interpret
Yes System of multilevel
End step-up structure
Figure 1. ISM model construction flowchart.

Determining the Adjacent Matrix. Here, according to the risk factors’

characteristics and the experts’ viewpoint, the direct correlations among the risk
factors are formed based on the adjacent matrix which is a binary matrix (elements
are 0 or 1).
Suppose the adjacent matrix of system for A ( A = [aij ] ),
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⎡0 a12 L a1n ⎤
⎢ ⎥
⎢ a21 0 L a2n ⎥
A=
⎢M M M⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢⎣an1 an2 L 0⎥⎦
Where aij (i = 1,2, L, n; j = 1,2,L , n) represents ai having a direct or no effect on a j ,
as defined by the following equation:
⎧⎪1, S i RS j
A = (aij ) = ⎨ （2）
⎪⎩0, S i R S j
Where R and R represent respectively S i having a direct or no effect on S j .
According to the risk factors selected (listed in Table 1), the direct relations
among the factors are defined with the Delphi method and the adjacent matrix is
constructed, as listed in Table 2.

Table 2. Direct relations among risk factors.

No. influence factors No. influence factors
1 S2,S4,S5,S7 13 S16,S18,S19
2 S4,S5,S6,S7 14 S16~S19
3 S4,S5,S6,S7 15 S12,S13,S19,S20
4 S5,S7 16 S7,S12,S17~S20
5 S4,S7 17 S7,S8,S18,S19,S20
6 S4,S7 18 S4,S7,S12,S13,S16,S17,S19
7 S4 19 S4,S7,S12,S13,S16,S17
8 S9,S10,S16~S19 20 S4,S7,S16
9 S7,S10 21 S4,S19,S22,S23
10 S9 22 S16,S19
11 S9,S17 23 S4,S20
12 S16~S19
Determining the Reachable Matrix. Via the following methods, the
reachable matrix is computed by MATLAB software and listed in Table 3.

Table 3. Direct and indirect relationships among risk factors.

NO. influence factors NO. influence factors
1 S2,S4~S7 13 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S16~S20
2 S4~S7 14 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20
3 S4~S7 15 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20
4 S5,S7 16 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S17~S20
5 S4,S7 17 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16,S18~S20
6 S4,S5,S7 18 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16,S17,S19,S20
7 S4,S5 19 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S18,S20
8 S4,S5,S7,S9~S13,S16~S20 20 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S19
9 S4,S5,S7,S10 21 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20,S22,S23
10 S4,S5,S7,S9 22 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20
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11 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 23 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20
12 S4,S5,S7~S10,S13,S16~S20
Ar = ( A + I ) r (3)
A1 ≠ A2 ≠ L ≠ Ar −1 = Ar , r ≤ n − 1 (4)
r −1
R = Ar −1 = ( A + I )
(5)
Where n is the order of the adjacent matrix, I the identity matrix and R gives the
direct and indirect relations among these factors.
Decomposing the Reachable Matrix and determining the
superlative degree elements. The superlative degree elements are determined in
the following equation:
R ( S i ) = R ( S i ) I A( S i ) (6)
Where R(Si) represents the reachable set and A(Si) the former factor set.
Table 4. Reachable set and the former factor set of the first rank.
NO. R(S i ) A( S i ) R ( S i ) I A( S i )

S1 S1,S2,S4, S5, S6,S7 S1 S1

S2 S2, S4,S5,S6,S7 S1, S2 S2
S3 S3, S4, S5, S6,S7 S3 S3
S4 S4,S5,S7 S1~S23 S4,S5,S7
S5 S4,S5,S7 S1~S23 S4,S5,S7
S6 S4,S5,S6,S7 S1,S2,S3,S6 S6
S7 S4,S5,S7 S1~S23 S4,S5,S7
S8 S4,S5,S7~S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S11,S12,S13,S16~S20
S9 S4,S5,S7,S9,S10 S8~S23 S9,S10
S10 S4,S5,S7,S9,S10 S8~S23 S9,S10
S11 S4,S5,S7~S13,S16~S20 S8,S11 S8,S11
S12 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S13 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S14 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12~S14,S16~S20 S14 S14
S15 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S15~S20 S15 S15
S16 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S17 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S18 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S19 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S20 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S21 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S23 S21 S21
S22 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20,S22 S21,S22 S22
S23 S4,S5,S7~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20,S23 S21,S23 S23

According to the reachable matrix listed in Table 3, the reachable set and
former factor set of the first rank are given and listed in Table 4.
From Table 4 as above, it is clear that the elements of S4, S5 and S7 satisfy the
equation: R(Si) = R(Si)∩A(Si). So the superlative degree elements of the first rank are
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L1= {S4, S5, S7}.

After deleting the rows and columns corresponding to the elements of S4, S5
and S7 in the reachable matrix, the reachable set and the former factor set of the
second rank are constructed, as listed in Table 5. Then the reachable set and the
former factor set of the third, fourth and fifth rank are listed in Tables 6, 7 and 8.

Table 5. Reachable set and the former factor set of the second rank.
NO. R(S i ) A( S i ) R ( S i ) I A( S i )

S1 S1,S2,S6 S1 S1
S2 S2, S6 S1,S2 S2
S3 S3, S6 S3 S3
S6 S6 S1,S2,S3,S6 S6
S8 S8~S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S11~S13,S16~S20
S9 S9,S10 S8~S23 S9,S10
S10 S9,S10 S8~S23 S9,S10
S11 S8~S13,S16~S20 S8,S11 S8,S11
S12 S8~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S13 S8~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S14 S8~S10,S12~S14,S16~S20 S14 S14
S15 S8~S10,S12,S13,S15~S20 S15 S15
S16 S8~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S17 S8~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S18 S8~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S19 S8~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S20 S8~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S21 S8~S10,S12,S13,S16~S23 S21 S21
S22 S8~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20,S22 S21,S22 S22
S23 S8~S10,S12,S13,S16~S20,S23 S21,S23 S23

According to Table 5, the elements of S6, S9 and S10 satisfy the equation: R(Si) =
R(Si)∩A(Si). So the superlative degree elements of the second rank are L2= {S6, S9,
S10}.
According to Table 6, the elements of S2, S3, S8, S12, S13, S16, S17, S18, S19 and S20
satisfy with equation: R(Si) = R(Si)∩A(Si). So the superlative degree elements of the
third rank are L3={S2, S3, S8, S12, S13, S16, S17, S18, S19, S20}

Table 6. Reachable set and the former factor set of the third rank.
NO. R(S i ) A( S i ) R ( S i ) I A( S i )
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S1 S1,S2 S1 S1
S2 S2 S1,S2 S2
S3 S3 S3 S3
S8 S8,S11~S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S11~S13,S16~S20
S11 S8,S11~S13,S16~S20 S8,S11 S8,S11
S12 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S13 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S14 S8,S12~S14,S16~S20 S14 S14
S15 S8,S12,S13,S15~S20 S15 S15
S16 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S17 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S18 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S19 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S20 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20 S8,S11~S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20
S21 S8,S12,S13,S16~S23 S21 S21
S22 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20,S22 S21,S22 S22
S23 S8,S12,S13,S16~S20,S23 S21,S23 S23

Table 7. Reachable set and the former factor set of the fourth rank.
Si S1 S11 S14 S15 S21 S22 S23
R(Si) S1 S11 S14 S15 S21~S23 S22 S23
A(Si) S1 S11 S14 S15 S21 S21, S22 S21,S23
R(Si)∩A(Si) S1 S11 S14 S15 S21 S22 S23

According to Table 7, the elements of S1, S11, S14, S15, S22 and S23 satisfythe
equation: R(Si) = R(Si)∩A(Si). So the superlative degree elements of the fourth rank
are L4= {S1, S11, S14, S15, S22, S23}.

Table 8. Reachable set and the former factor set of the fifth rank.
Si R(Si) A(Si) R(Si)∩A(Si)
S21 S21 S21 S21

According to Table 8, it is obvious that the element of S21 satisfies the

equation: R(Si) = R(Si)∩A(Si). So the superlative degree element of the fifth rank is
L5= {S21}.

Constructing the ISM model. The ISM model on factors contributing to

expressway work zone safety is constructed based on the reachable matrix, as shown
in Figure 2.
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L1 S4 S5 S7

L2 S6 S9 S10

L3 S2 S3 S8 S12 S13 S16 S17 S18 S19 S20

L4 S1 S11 S14 S22 S23

S15

L5 S21

Figure 2. ISM model on factors contributing to expressway work zone safety.

4. ANALYSIS OF ISM MODEL ON FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO

EXPRESSWAY WORK ZONE SAFETY
From the ISM model on factors influencing on expressway work zone safety
as above, it is clear that the model holds multilevel step-up structure and the risk
factors are divided into five different ranks. Here, the elements of the fourth rank
including driver age (S1), road surface type (S11), lane width (S14), work zone location
(S15), work duration (S22) and light condition (S23) influenced the factors of the
former rank step by step.
According to the relationships between the risk factors vesting in the second
rank and the third rank, the factors including experience of driver (S2) and driver
gender (S3) directly influence the factor of drunken driving (S6). The factors
including vehicle type (S8), number of lane closures (S12), length of closure (S13),
work zone layout (S16), speed limit (S17), percentage of truck (S18), traffic volume (S19)
and safety devices layout (S20) directly influence the factors of the second rank
including vehicle technical performance (S9) and overload/oversize(S10).
Based on the relationships among the risk factors vesting in the first rank and
the second rank, the risk factors, which directly influence driver dynamic decision
making (S4) are fatigued driving (S5) and speeding (S7), include drunken driving (S6),
vehicle technical performance (S9) and overload/oversize(S10).
Obviously, the driver sub-systems including driver dynamic decision making
(S4), fatigued driving (S5) and speeding (S7) adversely influence expressway work
zone safety.
The results of analysis show that the traffic safety system of expressway work
zones is a coupling system, in which driver, vehicle, road and traffic environment
mutually interact with and affect each other. Therefore, the system theory ought to be
utilized to identify the risk factors involved in traffic safety at expressway work
zones in order to reduce driving risks of expressway work.
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5. CONCLUSIONS
The expressway work zone safety is affected by various factors. Based on the
theory of traffic safety engineering and the driver-vehicle-road (environment) system,
the factors influencing the traffic safety of expressway work zones are determined by
the aspects of driver, vehicle, road and traffic environment. The direct and indirect
relations among risk factors on expressway work zone safety are analyzed
quantitatively. A multilevel step-up structural model on factors influencing
expressway work zone safety is developed by the ISM method and the key factors
impacting expressway work zone safety are presented. The results of this hierarchical
modeling show that the key factors on expressway work zone safety are driver
dynamic decision making (S4), fatigued driving (S5) and speeding (S7). Conclusions
show that the ISM method is practical and feasible for quantitatively analyzing the
influence factors on traffic safety at expressway work zones. In general, the results of
analysis provide straightforward measurements for traffic control and traffic
environment improvement of expressway work zones.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to thank the Fund of Transportation Science and Technology
of Heilongjiang (200900001) and National Natural Science Foundation of China
(50878095) for their financial support to this research project.

REFERENCES
Adeli, H.; Asce, F.; and Jiang, X.M. (2003). “Neuro-Fuzzy Logistic Model for
Expressway Zone Capacity Estimation”. Journal of Transportation
Engineering, (9): 484-493.
Arditi, D. ; Lee, D.E. ; Polat, G. (2007). “Fatal Accidents in Nighttime vs. Daytime
Highway Construction Work Zone”. Journal of Safety Research, (38):
399-405.
Byrd, P.S.; Pesti, G.; Jessen, D. S.; McCoy, P. T. (1999). “Traffic Flow
Characteristics of the Late Merge Work Zone Control Strategy”. The 78th
Annual Meeting Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C., revised,
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He, X.Z.; Guo, X.C.; Wu, P.; Yang, W.D. (2005) “Analysis of Traffic Characteristic
of Expressway Work Zone”. Highway, (12): 110-115.
Khattak, A. J.; Khattak, A. J.; & Council, F. M. (2002). “Effects of Work Zone
Presence on Injury and Non-injury Crashes”. Accident Analysis &
Prevention, (34): 19-29.
Li, Yingfeng and Bai, Yong. “Development of Crash-severity-index Model for the
Measurement of Work Zone Risk Level”. Accident Analysis and Prevention.
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Li, Z.F. and Kang, N.N. (2007). “An Interpretive Structure Model on the
Communication Culture Grad in Generalized-grad Theory”. Journal of
Transportation Engineering and Information (6): 1-7.
Schonfeld, P. and Chien, S.(1999). “Optimal Work Zone Lengths for Two Lane
Highway”. Journal of Transportation Engineering, (9):21-29.
Wang, Y.L. (1998). “System Engineering Theory Methods and Applying (Second
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Edition)”. Higher Education Press, Beijing, China.

Wu, B.; Xu, H.G.; Zhang, W.H. (2009). “Identifying the Cause and Effect Factors of
Traffic Safety at Expressway Work Zone Based on DEMATEL Model”. The
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ASCE, 2009: 2183-2188.
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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 379
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Research on The Length of Left-turn Lane by Field Observation

Hongqi LIU1, Fang WANG1, Tao SHEN2, Weihan ZHANG1

1
Road Safety Research Center and Research Institute of Highway, MOT, China,
100088. PH: +86 10 62355709; FAX: +86 10 62356515; E-mail: hq.liu@rioh.cn
2
Yunnan Highway Development & Investment Co., Ltd, 650200. PH: +86
13987128106; E-mail: xmglst@126.com

ABSTRACT
In order to determine a reasonable length for left-turn lanes, we observed
vehicles’ speeds on a selected left-turn lane set up with a new concept on a second-
class highway and obtained speed data of a normal section, main lane taper start
point and split point. Then, we analyzed the data by means of descriptive statistics
analysis, the paired-samples T test and ANOVA. The results showed that the length
of a left-turn lane could be shorter without compromising comfort and safety. The
speed used to determine the length of main lane taper could be reduced by 5%, and
the speed used to determine the deceleration length could be reduced by 15%.

1. INTRODUCTION
The objective of this paper is to address how to determine key parameters of
left-turn lanes by field observation. Left-turn lanes are used only for left turn
vehicles to improve intersection capacity and security. In our country, it has been
widely used in cities on signalized intersections with large traffic volumes, but rarely
used on highway intersections. Furthermore, there are many risks associated with
the left-turn lanes on highway intersections because of little consideration of traffic
safety or a lack of design theory. Therefore, it is necessary to research and provide
comprehensive parameters for left-turn lanes.
Left-turn lanes are made up of taper, deceleration and storage according to
“Design Specification for Highway Alignment” (JTG D20-2006)which also provides
the length parameters. However, two problems present themselves when applying
the specifications. First, the left-turn lane in this specification can only be set on a
highway with a central reserve wider than 3.5 m, but not on highways with a central
reserve width of less than 3.5 m and two-lane highways with no central reserve.
Second, it is not suitable on highways in mountainous areas if the deceleration is too
long as the full deceleration length is a comfortable deceleration to a stop from the
full design speed of the highway.
Although the left-turn lane has been widely used in developed countries, it
cannot be directly copied because of the major differences in construction systems,
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road conditions and road-side environments between home and abroad. Therefore,
we set left-turn lanes in new two-lane highways combining the overseas method
with domestic road situations. It is expected to research the feasibility of the
placement method based on field observations after it opens to traffic.

2. METHOD
2.1 Left-Turn Lane
We set left-turn lanes on a two-lane segment of Xiaomo Highway in Yunnan
Province against the limitations of left-turn lane standards provided in the
specifications of our country. Considering left-turn driving habits, we set the left-
turn taper after the split point of the main lane taper which could reduce the conflict
of left-turn vehicles and vehicles going straight in the same direction.

L1 L2 L3 L4
Main lane taper Left-turn lane Deceleration Storage
taper
Figure 1. Left-turn lane storage.
In Figure 1, the lane width, left-turn lane taper length and the storage length
were set based on “Design Specification for Highway Alignment” (JTG D20-2006).
The deceleration length was determined by the consideration of the following two
factors. First, the left-turn lane taper length was considered as a part of deceleration.
Second, left-turn vehicles’ speed was assumed to be easily reduced by 15 km/h in a
through lane before entering the auxiliary lane, which was recommended in the U.S.
Green Book (a policy on the geometric design of highways and streets) (AASHTO,
2001). The length of the main lane taper was calculated by the formula
recommended in MUTCD published by the U.S. Federal Highway Administration
(Formula 1) (FHWA, 2003) and should be no less than 60 m.

WV 2
L4 0.62WV ˄ V t 70km / h ˅or L4 ˄ V  70km / h ˅ (1)
155
Where,
L4
üümain lane taper length˗
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W üümain lane taper width with 3.5m in the research;

V üüdesign speed with 80km/h in the researchDŽ

Table 1 shows all the design parameters of left-turn lane.

Table 1. Design Parameters of Left-turn Lane (unit: m).
Main Lane Left-turn lane
Segment Deceleration Storage Total
Taper taper
Length 180 55 60 30 325

2.2 Research Objective

(1) Firstly, we would like to test and verify whether left-turn vehicles’ speed
could be easily reduced by 15% before the split point by field observation. It was
expected to determine the deceleration length by speed reduction in the future
application.
(2) We would like to analyze the speed reduction range before vehicles
entering the main lane taper by speed field observation to determine the length of
main lane taper.
The two results will show whether or not the length of the deceleration lane
and the main lane taper could be shortened.

2.3 Field Data Collection

We made two days’ worth of field observations on traffic operation and
vehicles’ speed on the left-turn lanes on Xiaomo Highway in November 2008 after it
had been open to traffic for three months.

2.3.1 Content of Data Collection

We observed the time of vehicles passing the NC200 detector, vehicle type,
last three numbers of license plates, spot speed, whether or not the vehicle turned
left and whether or not left-turn vehicles used left-turn lanes properly.

2.3.2 Data Collection Instrument

A stopwatch and NC200 detector were used during the observation. The
stopwatch was used to manually record the exact time of vehicles passing the
NC200 detector. The NC200 detector was selected to collect the traffic flow data.
The portable NC200 (Figure 2) was an independent instrument that could collect
traffic flow data day and night and record parameters such as flow rate, speed,
vehicle type etc. The obvious difference between NC200 and normal traffic flow
data collection instruments was that the NC200 could collect a single vehicle’s data
such as passing time, speed, vehicle length etc which can be used to analyze free
flow speed.
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Figure 2. NC100 traffic flow data collection instrument.

2.3.3 Data Collection Place

Manzhuang intersection (Figure 3) was located on the highway between
Mengla County and Mohan Port. The intersection-line connected with the
Manzhuang Town. The traffic flow was small with 400-500veh/h and a larger
proportion of nearly 13% left turns. It was easy to obtain free flow speed data and
enough left turn samples. The alignment effect on the vehicle operation speed could
be ignored because of the straight horizontal alignment and no more than 3%
gradient. Therefore, the left-turn lane of the intersection was selected as the survey
location.

Figure 3. Bird’s Eye View of Manzhuang Intersection.

2.3.4 Data Collection method

Artificial observation and instrument observation were combined to collect
data. The instrument and observers were separately set in the normal section, the
main lane taper start point and the split point (Figure 4). The observation point of the
normal section was selected 1km ahead the left-turn lane and there were no other
entrances and exits between them. It avoided the intersection effect on vehicles’
speed and decreased the difficulty of vehicle speed analysis variation in accordance
with the tail numbers of license plates.
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The NC200 was used to record vehicles’ spot speeds and the time vehicles
passed the point. The observers carried stopwatches and forms to record vehicle type
and the last three numbers of license plates. The observers at the split point had to
record whether vehicles turned left or not. They also recorded the time vehicles
passed the point which was used as a key parameter to connect the NC200 data and
artificial data.

Figure 4. Field Observation Project.

2.3.5 Data Collection procedure

(1) Set the parameters including the start time and the end time of
observation, location, and so on in NC200.
(2) Synchronize the time of stopwatch and NC200 system.
(3) Install NC200 detectors on three observation points separately (Figure 5).
(4) Select artificial observation sites. The sites should be concealed to avoid
the observation affecting on vehicles speed.
(5) Observers kept pace with the NC200 to record the time vehicles passes
the NC200, vehicle type and the last three numbers of license plates. The observers
in split points also recorded whether vehicles turned left (Figure 6).
(6) Export speed data from the NC200 after observation and enter artificial
observation data in the computer.

Figure 5. Setting NC200. Figure 6. Human Observation.

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2.4 Data Analysis

2.4.1 Step One

After exporting data from the NC200 and entering the artificial records into
computer, the data were stored by observation point. The data records with headway
larger than 5s were deleted as the speed of vehicle in the car-following state would
be affected by the previous vehicles. We obtained the valid data of the normal
section, offset section and split section, respectively 232 pieces, 204 pieces and 238
pieces. With time as the key field, and vehicle type and headway as the
supplementary reference, we combined the corresponding artificial data and NC200
record data. The new database included the passing time of vehicles, license plate
numbers, vehicles type, vehicle speed and whether or not the vehicles turned left.

2.4.2 Step Two

With license plate numbers as the key field, we combined the data from the
normal segment and that from the main lane taper and got 137 pieces of valid data.
With the same method, we combined the data from the main lane taper start point
and the data from the split point and got 170 pieces of valid data.

2.4.3 Step Three

We statistically analyzed the changes of overall speed, straight speed and
left-turn speed between two adjacent feature points, adopted paired-samples T test to
validate the difference of speed data on different feature points and adopted ANOVA
to validate the difference of speed data on different driving directions.

3. RESULTS
Table 2 shows the statistical results. The vehicles’ mean speed on the normal
segment was 81.52 km/h. It was quite close to the design speed of 80 km/h.
Vehicles’ speeds declined in different ranges before the main lane taper and left-turn
lane taper.
Table 2. Statistics of Vehicle Mean Speed.˄ ˄unit˖km/h˅
Normal Segment MLT Split Point
Total St LT Total St LT Total St LT
Mean
81.52 82.35 79.44 74.32 76.29 69.37 68.08 72.63 59.71
Speed
Std.
15.81 16.28 14.85 18.28 19.22 14.74 23.2 20.27 13.86
Deviation
Std. Error
1.35 1.64 2.34 1.56 1.94 2.36 1.69 1.85 1.98
Mean
MLT=main lane taper
LT=left turn
St=straight
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From Table 3, we know that the speed of all vehicles, straight vehicles and
left-turn vehicles decreased by 7.20km/h(-8.8ˁ), 6.06km/h(-7.4ˁ), 10.07km/h(-
12.7 ˁ ) separately before entering into main lane taper. The vehicles’ speeds
decreased by 6.24km/h(-8.4ˁ), 3.66km/h(-4.8ˁ), 9.66km/h(-13.9ˁ) separately
before entering into left-turn lane taper. After two phases of speed decreasing, the
vehicle speed reduced by 13.44km/h(-17.2 ˁ ), 9.72km/h(-12.2 ˁ ), 19.73km/h(-
26.6ˁ) separately.
Table 3. Statistics of Vehicle Speed Variation.
Speed Variation˄km/h˅ Speed Variation Proportion
Total St LT Total St LT
NSˉMLT 7.20 6.06 10.07 -8.8ˁ -7.4ˁ -12.7ˁ
MLTˉT 6.24 3.66 9.66 -8.4ˁ -4.8ˁ -13.9ˁ
NSˉT 13.44 9.72 19.73 -17.2ˁ -12.2ˁ -26.6ˁ
LT=left turn
St=straight
NS=normal section
MLT= main lane taper
T=taper

A paired-samples T-test was carried out in order to test the differences in

vehicle speed between the two adjacent feature points. The results are shown in
Table 4. All the paired samples passed the test at the significance level of 0.05. This
means that there were significant differences in the speed on the normal segment,
main lane taper and left lane taper. With the mean speed, we could conclude that
vehicles’ speeds were reduced before entering the main lane taper and left lane taper.

Table 4. Paired Samples Test.

Paired Differences
Paired 95% Confidence Sig.
Samples Direction Mean Lower Upper t df (2-tailed)
Total 7.20 4.94 9.45 6.31 136 0.000
NSˉMLT Straight 6.06 3.35 8.75 4.45 97 0.000
LT 10.07 5.93 14.21 4.92 38 0.000
Total 6.24 3.38 9.09 4.31 187 0.000
MLTˉT Straight 3.66 0.65 6.67 2.41 119 0.018
LT 9.65 5.83 13.48 5.08 48 0.000
LT=left turn
NS=normal section
MLT= main lane taper
T=taper

In order to test the difference of vehicles’ speeds in different driving

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directions, we ANOVAed the data of straight speed and left turn speed on three
observation points. The results are shown in Table 5. There was no significant
difference between straight speed and left-turn speed at the normal segment, but the
speed on the split point and point before the main lane taper had significant
differences. The difference on split point was more significant.

Table 5. ANOVA.
Sum of Mean
df F Sig.
Squares Square
Between Groups 236.41 1 236.41 0.95 0.333
Normal
Within Groups 33775.79 135 250.19
Segment
Total 34012.20 136
Between Groups 1519.23 1 1519.23 4.45 0.036
MLT Within Groups 57345.81 168 341.34
Total 58865.03 169
Between Groups 5780.20 1 5780.20 16.61 0.000
Split Point Within Groups 58133.78 167 348.11
Total 63913.98 168
MLT=main lane taper

4. CONCLUSIONS
(1) Whether the vehicles were going straight or turning left, vehicles’ speeds
decreased before entering intersections. The difference is that the rate of decrease of
the straight-bound vehicles is significantly lower than that of left-turn vehicles. So,
there should be a difference between straight-bound vehicles and left-turn vehicles
in left-turn lane design.
(2) The main lane taper is designed for all vehicles, so it should allow most
vehicles to pass comfortably and safely. As straight-bound vehicles move faster than
left-turn ones, the taper rate of the main lane should be determined by the straight
vehicles’ speed. According to the statistics of the Manzhuang Intersection, the
average drop of straight-bound vehicle speed at the main lane taper was -7.4%
which was significantly lower than the normal segment. We can see that the length
of the main lane taper can be appropriately reduced by more than 5% in limited
areas.
(3) Since the left-turn lane is designed only for left-turn vehicles, the length
of taper and deceleration should be consistent with the speed of left-turn vehicles.
According to the observations of the Manzhuang Intersection, the mean speed of
left-turn vehicles decreased by 19.73 km/h with a 26.6% drop. Although this
conclusion is based on the data derived from only one intersection and without
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universal applicability, it can also prove that vehicle speed can be easily reduced by
15% before entering the left turn lane, which is proposed in Green Book. This point
of view is also applicable in our country. Therefore, the length of the taper and
deceleration should not be determined by the design speed of the main section, but
rather by subtracting a certain percentage of mainline design speed. According to the
field observations and recommendations of Green Book, a 15% decrease is
sufficient to ensure traffic safety in limited areas.
Overall, the research results improve the practicability of left-turn lanes in
limited areas and can promote the usage of left-turn lanes in these areas. At present,
there are very few such left-turn lanes in our country. With more applications of the
left-turn lane on highways, more observations can be carried out to obtain the data
needed to design them.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was funded by the Research Institute of Highway (RIOH) and
by Xiaomo Highway Construct Headquarters, Department of Communications of
Yunnan Province.

REFERENCES
A policy on geometric design of highways and streets (Green Book). (2001).
American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials
(AASHTO), 259–268.
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). (2003). “Manual on uniform traffic
control devices for streets and highways -Markings (MUTCD)”.
Washington, DC, 3B19-3B23.
JTG D20-2006. “Design specification for highway alignment.” Ministry of
Transport, 53-55.
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The Development of PARAMICS Based Metropolitan Emergency Evacuation

Transportation Simulation System --- MEETSIM
Fei SONG1, Xiao-kuan YANG2, Lei DU3
1
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124,
China; Tel: (0086) 13426252060; Fax: (0086-10) 6739-2991; E-mail:
songfei@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124,
China; Tel: (0086-10) 67391678; Fax; (0086-10) 6739-2991; E-mail:
xiaokuan@bjut.edu.cn
3
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124,
China; Tel: (0086) 13810511026; Fax: (0086-10) 6739-2991; E-mail: Email:
duduleilei121@163.com

ABSTRACT
In recent years, natural and human related disasters have occurred
frequently in China. Due to these unfortunate events, there have been tremendous
losses of property and lives. Natural and man-made disasters have made
transportation evacuation become a major concern that emergency agencies need
to consider in their emergency management. Emergency management plans should
be able to ensure the safety and quick movement of people at the time of crisis. It
is, however, impossible to conduct experiments in the field to represent scenarios
of emergency. Therefore, simulations are used to approximate emergency conditions.
This paper presents an urban emergency transportation simulation system based on
PARAMICS and its applications for Beijing metropolitan area. The proposed system
(called MEETSIM) can be used to simulate movements of vehicles and pedestrians
under emergencies based on the behavior analysis conducted through the simulator.
Moreover, the proposed system has put the entire process of evacuation under the
hypothetical emergency event into consideration. The development of this package
has demonstrated its effectiveness for producing evacuation routing strategies,
optimizing emergency resource, identifying total evacuation time, and evaluating the
performance of evacuation operations.

INTRODUCTION
Natural disasters and potential man-made accidents will result in tremendous
losses of property and lives. Due to these disasters, emergency systems are needed to
improve the capabilities of emergency response and minimize effects (Hodgkinson,
Peter E. et al.1991). Emergency transport systems are an important part of the
emergency system. Therefore, reasonable emergency traffic management and orderly
evacuation of vehicles and pedestrians is necessary in order to reduce casualties and
economic losses.
In review of the literature at home and abroad, it appears that most studies on
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emergency evacuations are concentrated on the following two methods:

mathematical analysis and computer simulation. The evacuation of a building or a
region is transformed into the network optimization problem through mathematical
analysis. The shortest path, minimum cost , fastest, and maximum flow problems
can be solved by this method (Kevin D. Moriarty, 2007). Mathematical analysis can
only adopt a static network structure, namely, the feature of time varying during the
actual evacuation cannot be reflected and the time parameter isn't considered in the
models. Traffic simulation, however, can simulate new methods and measures in
traffic management without affecting the operation of existing road (Yue Liu. et
al.,2008). Due to the fact that a number of factors are uncertain under emergency
conditions, it is difficult to estimate evacuation time accurately by mathematical and
empirical methods. Therefore, traffic simulation is widely used to simulate
emergency evacuation and to calculate evacuation time.
Evacuation simulation studies are currently using dynamic traffic assignments
to route evacuees to desirable destinations in a transient traffic network (Lee D.
Han et al.,2005). Additionally, research focusing on applications of Computer
Graphics and Geographic Information Systems in urgent management and
integration is being discussed (Zhan Yong-song. et al.,2008). However, emergency
situations have different characteristics, so different plans should be formulated.
There are no studies that focus on using vehicles for evacuation of pedestrians at
home, which is necessary for emergency evacuation in Beijing. This paper presents
an emergency transportation simulation system based on PARAMICS (called
MEETSIM), which integrates multiple modules to assist responsible agencies in
better coordination and decision-making under emergency evacuation operations.
Meanwhile, the evacuation strategies and evaluation of evacuation plans for
large-scale venues in Beijing is described in this study.

FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS OF MEETSIM

Emergency evacuation transportation simulation systems are built to simulate
various types of plans for emergency evacuation and rescue, which are based on
the study of behavior characteristics of drivers and pedestrians under emergencies.
The ultimate goal of emergency plans is to evacuate in the shortest possible time.
Moreover, the system evaluates emergency plans and the optimal adjustment of
traffic organization is given according to the evaluation results. The whole system is
to provide the commanders of emergency a reference to choose a reasonable plan
for evacuation. In order to simulate the process of emergency plans more accurately,
MEETSIM should include the following functions:
² Information inventory: When an unexpected event happens, the type, level,
and scope of the event should be identified by experts. They also need to identify
the scope of evacuation, evacuation methods, and the number of vehicles required.
Specific operators will input all the information into the system.
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² Management and inquiry of emergency resources: This component

functions for emergency commanders to manage and inquire various types of
emergency resources. They need to know the distribution of all the different types
of emergency resources and suitable resources for specific events. Emergency
resources mainly refer to resources for emergency evacuation and rescue,
including emergency response experts, shelter, emergency support vehicles,
hospital, blood center, gas stations, police, forces, and volunteers. In the
emergency response system, there is a detailed description and relevant table or
figure of the support system.
² Optimization of emergency resource: The role of this module is to select the
required resources according to the event information input into the system. The
recommended allocation of resources should be 110% of the demand. If the
resources cannot meet the demand in the given range, the subject should be
shown in red automatically. Also, the function of route choice is realized in this
module. Users can choose routes for emergency evacuation and rescue; routes for
different types of vehicles will be shown in different colors.
² Shape-up of predetermined plan: Predetermined plans will be formatted
based on the determination of emergency routes (Yang Xiao-kuan. et al.,2007).
The emergency plan includes: the route choice of rescue vehicles, the route choice
of evacuation vehicles, signal control on surrounding roads, and facilities for
induction and control strategies.
² Animation: 3D visualization of evacuation process will be shown in the
simulation platform; the results of the various evacuation plans and strategies
will also be displayed in this platform. The simulation results contain evacuation
time, the number of people evacuated, and the average speed of evacuation
vehicles. In addition, this platform also produces the curve of number of
evacuation vehicles and number of people evacuated over time. The animation can
reflect the impact of traffic management and control strategy on evacuation
process.
² Analysis and evaluation of output results: This portion is designed to output
the data and charts of the evaluation, including evacuation time of pedestrians and
vehicles, total evacuation time, average evacuation speed of pedestrians
(person/min) and vehicles (veh/min), the arrival time and rate of rescue vehicles,
and information and location of traffic hot spots (jam-point segment). The best
evacuation plan will be determined according to the key parameters of emergency
evacuation simulation (evacuation time, evacuation rate, etc.) and evacuation
costs.
² Management of system users: There are three types of system user
accounts: administrator, guest, and general. Administrator accounts have the
highest authority. They can edit all content as well as modify the platform and
create other accounts. General accounts have the right to modify part of the
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platform, however, they are not allowed to browse or access important emergency
plans such as emergency plans of terrorist attacks. Guest accounts can only browse
part of the predetermined plan. Moreover, the security of the system should be
considered to avoid access from any outside networks.

SYSTEM FRAMEWORK OF MEETSIM

The emergency evacuation system consists mainly of the following three
principal components: the basic characteristics module, the comprehensive
management module, and the micro-simulation platform module. Figure 1 presents
the framework of the proposed integrated emergency evacuation system. The study
of this development process of MEETSIM is focused on the comprehensive
management module and the micro-simulation platform of emergency module.
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Unexpected Incident

Input Incident Information Emergency

Emergency Shelter
Resources
Selection Model
Emergency Resource Allocation

Rescue Services
Roadway Network
Selection Model Emergency Roadway Network
Transferred from
Simulation Module
ArcGis

Evacuation Route Choice Module:

Route Choice Of Rescue Vehicles Route Choice Model
Route Choice Of Evacuation Vehicles

Input OD of Background
Characteristics of
OD Input and Distribution
Divers under
Input OD of Emergency
Emergency
Evacuation
Calibration of Emergency
Simulation Model Characteristics of
Pedestrians under
Emergency
Control Strategy Module:
Emergency Vehicles Priority Over Other Vehicles
Signal Priority of Emergency Rescue Vehicles
VMS Induction
......

Evacuation Plan Generate Emergency Evacuation Plan

of Vehicles Evacuation Plans of Pedestrians

Run an Emergency Simulation

Output Simulation Results

Calculation of Evacuation
Time of Vehicles
Analyze and Display the
Output from Simulation
Calculation of Evacuation
Results
Time of Pedestrians

Emergency Simulation Evaluation Module

Figure 1. Frame Work of MEETSIM.

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l Basic Characteristics Module

This module is designed to provide theoretical guidance for the other two
modules, which are based on the study of theory and methodology related to
emergency evacuation. This module contains the following information (see Table
1):
Table 1. Contents of Basic Characteristics Module.
No. Name of Sub-Module Contents
(1) Make clear the scope and level of evacuation (danger
zone, buffer zone, security zone)
(2) Determine the shape of evacuation scope (round,
Traffic demand analysis rectangular)
1
of evacuation (3) Determine traffic demand (number of evacuees and
number of vehicles needed in evacuation)
(4) Shelter (number, location, capacity)
(5) OD distribution of evacuation transport
Evacuation route (1) Optimized route of evacuation vehicles
2
optimization model (2) Optimized route of rescue vehicles
Traffic control and (1) Emergency traffic control strategies
3
management (2) Emergency traffic management
Characteristics of drivers (1) Reaction time of drivers, the average headway of
4 and pedestrians under vehicles, intensity of acceleration, frequency of overtaking
emergency (2) Pedestrians' stride, pace, expectation space
(1) Evaluation methodology of emergency plan
Evaluation of emergency
5 (2) Evaluation indicators: evacuation time, evacuation
plans
distance, speed and delay

l Emergency Comprehensive Management Module

This module is for system users to manage emergency information
comprehensively. The detalied information is shown in Table 2:
Table 2. Contents of Emergency Comprehensive Management Module.
No. Name of Sub-Module Contents
(1) Event type (2) Event scale (3) Event location (4) Event
1 Emergency management
time (5) Number of evacuees
(1) Shelter (number, location, capacity)
(2) Emergency rescue organization (hospitals, fire-brigade,
Emergency resource
2 police, gas stations)
management
(3) Evacuation vehicles (type, quantity)
(4) Emergency experts (name, expertise, contact)
Emergency resource
3 Selection of emergency resource
deployment
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Emergency evacuation (1) Evacuation route

4 route optimization (2) Optimized route of rescue vehicles
management (3) Highlight of emergency route
Control strategies (1) Description of prerequisite of plan
5 management of (2) Description of control strategies of plan
emergency plans (3) Control strategies management
(1) Information of emergency plan is transferred from
management platform to micro-simulation platform
Emergency data (2) Simulation demo of micro-simulation platform is
6
exchange module transferred by management platform
(3) Simulation results of micro-simulation platform is
transferred by management platform
Analysis of simulation Extraction, storage and description of simulation results
7
results (evacuation time, capacity and delay of sections)

Evaluation of emergency
8 Storage and description of evaluation plans
plans

Information management
9 (1) Name of section (2) Road grade (3) Signal control
of roadway network

l Micro-Simulation Platform Module of Emergency

PARAMICS(PARAllel MICroscopic Simulator) is a traffic simulation program
that is composed of 5 parts: the modeler, the processor, the analyzer, the
programmer, and the monitor. This module achieves the following functions in
PARAMICS which developed in this study: avoidance behaviors of vehicles, signal
control, interface between pedestrians and vehicles, and calculation of evacuation
time. Additionally, this module outputs parameters for statistics. This module
consists of the following key components (see Table 3):
Table 3. Contents of Micro-Simulation Platform Module of Emergency.
No. Name of Sub-Module Contents
Fast build roadway (1) Input: Roadway network map of GIS format
1
network (2) Output: Roadway network map applied to PARAMICS
(1) Signal control of intersections
(2) Road detector
(3) Induced facilities of VMS
Build traffic control
2 (4) Green-wave signal for emergency vehicles on
facilities and strategies
evacuation route
(5) Avoidance control of other vehicles to rescue vehicles
(6) Signal control of expressway access
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(1) OD of general traffic

3 Traffic generation
(2) OD of emergency traffic
Micro-simulation
4 PARAMICS
software
Dynamic demonstration 3D visualization of the evacuation process and display the
5
of emergency simulation output from simulation results.
SYSTEM APPLICATION-OLYMPIC STADIUM, BEIJING
This section presents the application of the proposed emergency evacuation
system for Beijing Olympic Stadium (Bird's Nest). This case study intends to assist
potential users in best understanding the key functions and properties of all principal
system components. Figure 2 is the interface of MEETSIM.

Figure 2. Interface of MEETSIM.

Based on the identified impact area and evacuation demand, responsible
agencies can then use the proposed system to take the following step-by-step actions:
Step 1: Input the incident information
The Olympic stadium is the main track and field stadium for the Olympics
and it is used for other recreational and sports activities after the event. This
emergency scenario assumes that there is a sudden disaster in the Olympic Stadium
(see Figure 3). The total demand is 100,000 people, under the assumption that the
seating capacity of the Bird's Nest is 91,000, of which 1,000 need to be rescued
by ambulances.
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Figure 3. Location of the emergency scenario.

Step 2: Build the roadway network
The roadway network map of the Olympic Sports Center and its surrounding
areas in GIS format should be transferred to PARAMICS format (see Figure 4).

Figure 4. Roadway network of Olympic Sports Center.

The roadway network should be adjusted according to the latest map. The shape
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and height of overpass should also be adjusted. Moreover, the information of signal
control needs to be input based on practical situations.
Step 3: Allocation of emergency resources
The Olympic stadium is located between three-ring and five-ring. The
hazardous area has a radius of 2 km to the nest as the center, and the buffer zone is
approximately 5 to 10 km from the Olympic Village Center in the straight-line
distance.
u Select shelter
Shelters are chosen according to the disaster level and the number of evacuees.
There Tsinghua University has a capacity of 40000 people, Peking University has a
capacity of 55000 people, Beijing Forestry University contains a capacity of 32000
people, and finally, the Chaolai football activity center has a capacity of 70000
people. Three of the above are schools and the other is a football field. The total
capacity is 197,000 people.
u Select hospital, police department and fire brigade
In an emergency scenario, it is assumed that 1000 people should be rescued by
ambulances. 26 hospitals are selected within the radius of 10 km around the Bird's
Nest. The times of the dispatched ambulances’ of each hospital are allocated based
on the distance between the hospital and the Bird's Nest. Meanwhile, 200 police
vehicles and 60 fire engines selected from each department around the Bird's Nest
are dispatched for rescue and order maintenance.
Step 4: Definite the traffic volume
All evacuees should be picked up by buses to evacuate from the impact area
according to the disaster level. Evacuation vehicles are composed by two kinds of
buses: single and articulated . Meanwhile, the capacity of a single bus is 80 people,
while the articulated bus has a capacity for 150 people. The ratio of evacuation
vehicles is most favored to be 1:1. Hence, 870 vehicles are needed for evacuation
because the number of two kinds of buses is the same. The number of initial vehicles
around the venues is assumed to be 2700, 40% of which are large cars. The
emergency scenario assumes there are 5000-10000 vehicles in the buffer zone as the
background traffic.
Step 5: Emergency route choice
The evacuation route and traffic management is designed in connection with
disaster information.
Evacuation route: The 12 access points of the Olympic Sports Center and the
bus station around the center is set as the origin. The four shelters selected before
will be the destination. The following roadways are chosen for evacuation based on
the pre-set criteria in the system: Beijing-Chengde highway, the North Fourth Ring,
the North Fifth Ring, Zhongguancun East Road, Kecui Road, Datun Road,
Tshinghua East Road, Chengfu Road, Beichen West Road, Beichen East Road, Aolin
East Road, Olin West Road, Anli Road and Beiyuan Road. (See Figure 5).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 398
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Figure 5. Roadway network of evacuation route.

Step 6: Traffic management
Highways and expressways are used as evacuation routes for one-way traffic.
Access along roadways is sealed, with the exception of the evacuation route. In the
danger zone of main roads and sub-roads (with a radius of 2 km), the green indicates
the direction of evacuation and prohibits any other vehicles other than emergency
vehicles to come in. The signal for evacuation vehicles should primarily be in the
buffer zone. Figure 6 shows the danger zone of event.

Figure 6. Danger zone.

Step 7: Simulation
The traffic demand is input based on the roadway network. The operation of
vehicles and pedestrians is simulated, and then the results are output. Figure 7
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shows the process of evacuation vehicles.

Figure 7. Simulation of evacuation vehicles under emergency.

Step 8: Output the simulation results and evaluate emergency plans
3D visualization of the evacuation process of pedestrians is shown in Figure 8
and 9.

Figure 8. People out from the venues Figure 9. People walk into the vehicle
The simulation results in this plan include the following parts:1) Clearance time
for people out from the venues is 11 minutes and 23 seconds and total walking
distance is 11,310 km; 2) Clearance time for vehicles is 3 hours 20 minutes and 31
seconds; 3) Time for 50% evacuees evacuated from the dangerous area is 42 minutes
and 45 seconds. It took 1 hour 31 minutes and 38 seconds for 75% of the evacuees to
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evacuate from the venues with a total clearance time of 3 hours 21 minutes and 29
seconds.
Multiple plans need to be evaluated from safety and timeliness aspects.
Therefore, the following parameters are selected for evaluation of emergency plans:
evacuation time of vehicles (50%, 75%, 95%, total), clearance time of people out
from the venues, and total walking time of people.
CONCLUSIONS
This paper has presented a PARAMICS-based metropolitan emergency
evacuation transportation simulation system (MEETSIM). The proposed system
establishes an integrated management platform for the emergency response, which
includes the management and evaluation of disaster information, emergency
resources, and emergency plans. The system also simulates movements of vehicles
and pedestrians under emergency conditions based on the behavior analysis
conducted through the simulator. Further research will be focused on the
development of other functions in frame work to contend with real-world operational
requirements for the simulation of traffic operations under emergencies.

REFERENCES
Han D L, Yuan F. (2005). Evacuation modeling and operations using dynamic traffic
assignment and most assignment and most desirable destination approaches.
The 84th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting. Washington DC.

Hodgkinson, Peter E., Stewart, M. (1991). Coping with catastrophe: a handbook of

disaster manmagement, Routledge.

Kevin D. Moriarty.(2007). Modeling Traffic Flow under Emergency Evacuation

Situations: Current Practice and Future Directions. TRB 2007 Annual
Meeting CD-ROM.

Yang Xiao-kuan, Gong Jian, Cao Jing. (2007).Dynamic Link Travel Time for
Evacuation Route in an Emergency of Olympic Games. Journal of Beijing
University of Technology, 702-706.

Yue Liu, Gang-Len Chang, Ying Liu, Xiaorong Lai. (2008)A CORRIDOR-BASED
EMERGENCY EVACUATION SYSTEM FOR WASHINGTON D.C.:
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND CASE STUDY. TRB 2008 Annual
Meeting CD-ROM.

Zhan Yong-song, Lo Siu-ming.(2008). Study on City Urgent Management System

Supported by CG and GIS. Journal of Communication University of China
(Science and Technology), 28-33.
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Sound as a Countermeasure against Driving Fatigue based on ECG

Xiaohua Zhao, 1Ruixue Fang, 2 Shili Xu3, Jian Rong4, Xiaoming Liu5

1
Beijing Key Lab of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing
100122, China; PH: (86)67396075; email: zhaoxiaohua@bjut.edu.cn
2
Beijing Key Lab of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing
100122, China; PH: (86)67395426; email: frx.007@163.com
3
Beijing Key Lab of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing
100122, China; PH: (86)67393053; email: xushili4959@163.com
4
Beijing Key Lab of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing
100122, China; PH: (86)67392082; FAX: (86)67392082; email: jrong@bjut.edu.cn
5
Beijing Key Lab of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing
100122, China; PH: (86)67391458; FAX: (86)67391458; email: liuxm@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Driving fatigue is one of the main causes for fatal accidents. Environmental
stimulus as the countermeasure against driving fatigue has been widely researched.
For this paper a driving simulator experiment was carried out in order to validate the
effect of sound as the environmental stimulus countermeasure. Firstly, the paper
analyzed the change law of ECG (Electrocardiograph) with driving time, then
validated that it was reasonable to consider ECG as an evaluation indicator of
driving fatigue. Various indices of ECG recorded from alert to fatigue throughout the
experiment were used to measure degree of fatigue using principal component
analysis (PCA). Finally, being a countermeasure against driving fatigue, the validity
of sound stimulus was verified and the optimal combination of sound was presented
by orthogonal experiments. The results show that the alerting reaction exists in the
sound signal stimulation during driving fatigue state, and there is a significant
difference among different types of sound stimulus. Stimulating interval and sonic
intensity are the most significant factors to fight driving fatigue, the impact of
frequency and stimulating interval are weaker. The experimental method will lay a
foundation for further study on light and vibration stimulus as countermeasures
against driving fatigue.

INTRODUCTION
Driving fatigue is one of the main causes for fatal accidents. According to
statistics, accidents related to fatigue accounted for 20% - 30% of road traffic
accidents (Lal, S. K. L, et al 2001). The National Transportation Safety Board
（ NTSB ） statistics showed that driving fatigue accounted for 31% of traffic
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accidents related to drivers (Philippa H.G, et al, 2006). French accident reports
showed that the traffic accidents caused by driving fatigue accounted for 14.9% of
casualty accidents, 20.6% of fatal accidents (Wei, C, 2000).. Japan's accident
statistics also revealed that the number of accidents due to driving fatigue accounted
for about 1% to 1.5% of the total number of incidents. China's Ministry of Public
Security Traffic Management Bureau statistics showed that in 2005 serious traffic
accidents related to driving fatigue accounted for 14.8% of the total. Therefore
taking effective measures to slow down driving fatigue in the course of driving will
have a significant meaning.
The main contents of driving fatigue are focused on the formation
mechanism and measures. Most countries limit and prevent driving fatigue by
developing laws and regulations. But policies are not always easy to implement
since they are driven by a variety of interests. At the same time, driving fatigue is
hard to be avoided during the driving course due to individual differences and the
complex environmental impacts. Therefore, the need for further research on
effective countermeasures against driving is urgent.
Measures against driving fatigue are widely discussed and researched upon.
Fletcher et al distinguished between reducing the likelihood of fatigue (interventions)
and reducing the consequences of fatigue (countermeasures) (Fletcher A., et al,
2005). An intervention is a measure used to prevent driver fatigue, and involves
actions taken before a trip to maintain continuous vigilance during driving; a
countermeasure is a measure minimizing or countering driver fatigue during a trip.
According to the different objects, countermeasures can be divided into three
categories: the driver centered testing technology, the vehicle centered technology,
and the environment centered countermeasure.
To date, many countries have already begun to explore sound ergonomics
research. They have been considering sound stimulus as an environmental
countermeasure against driving fatigue. Some researchers have indicated that sound
stimulus can reduce fatigue (Landstrom U, Englund K, et al, 1998). Yukie Hirata
found that when fatigue emerged, drivers stimulated with music could improve their
alertness and avoid drowsiness (Yukie Hirata, 2001). However, there’s barely any
research available on how the sound affects driving fatigue. Researchers have
generally suggested the possibility of using sound stimulus as a countermeasure
against driving fatigue, but no further study has been done on the effect of different
factors and levels of sound. This paper used orthogonal experimental methodology,
conducted a driving simulation experiment, collected physiological data of drivers
from alert to fatigue and after stimulating, analyzed the change law of ECG and
different types of sound stimulus on the effects of reducing diving fatigue, and
identified the most effective sound stimulus to be used as a countermeasure against
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driving fatigue. This study could play an important role in reducing driving fatigue
and improving road safety.
The paper used a simulated driving environment to study change of all
indicators of ECG with driving time. ECG indicators include heart rate index (HR)
and heart rate variability index (HRV). Combining the results of other researchers
and via a large number of experiments, Wilson and his workmates draw a conclusion
that HR signal is an overall index, which reflects the level of psychological and
physiological load under the requirements of different tasks (GF. Wilson, 1988). HR
signal reflects comprehensive influence on operators of variety of mission and
emotional factors (S.G., Hart et al.,1990). The driver's HR will drop during a long
drive (J.B.J. Riemersma et al.,1977). In our study we also found a significant and
large decrease in heart rate during driver fatigue (Lal S.K.L. et al.,2001b). The
interval between heart rates (RRI) constantly changes even the tested subject stayed
still. This is called HRV. As a method to observe the relative strength among signals
of each frequency ingredient by analyzing HRV wave form, the interpretation of
frequency area provides very useful information to estimate the antagonistic activity
between the sympathetic nervous system and the parasympathetic nervous system of
autonomic nervous system (Solange Akeslrod et al.,and 1981, Alberto Malliani et al.,
1994).Others have reported changes in HRV and a feeling of fatigue associated with
deterioration in driving. Another study found changes in HRV among drivers of
motor vehicles after long test drives. This change was interpreted as a sign of
diminished alertness. Yushu, Y. pointed out that four time and frequency domain
indices of ECG were significantly related to fatigue (Yushu, Y. et al., 2002). When
the body was in fatigue the standard deviation of RRI (SDNN) of time domain
measure indices increased significantly. This area, however, needs further controlled
investigation of the autonomic changes that occur during driving fatigue before any
firm conclusion can be drawn about its potential to indicate fatigue.
The paper analyzed the original variables of ECG, established the
relationship of all indicators, and determined the overall index of driving fatigue
evaluation. This excluded the interference of other factors to reduce the fluctuations
of the data and improve the accuracy of fatigue evaluation. On the basis of this study,
the paper identified the most effective sound stimulus type as an environment
stimulus countermeasure against driving fatigue according to the results of
orthogonal experiment, which had an important significance to slow down driving
fatigue and improve road traffic safety.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

Environments In order to reach fatigue state as soon as possible, the road
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scene should be monotonous, be a straight two-lane two-way road, without any

indicatory signs (see Figure 1). Sagberg argues that the risk of falling asleep is
higher on straight, monotonous roads in situations of low traffic, where boredom is
likely to occur (Sagberg, F., 1999). The driver was asked to drive at the right side of
the center line, and follow the car in front with a stable speed of 50 km/h.

Figure 1. Driving Simulator Scene.

Participants Ryan pointed out that the gender on traffic accidents caused
by driving fatigue had significant differences (Ryan, G.A., 1995). McCartt AT
indicated the young male drivers belonged to the high-risk group for accidents
related to driving fatigue (McCartt AT, et al.,1996). To exclude individual
differences, the 30 participants used were all men, aged around 25 years old, with
more than two years’ driving experience, and they were all in good health without
any sleep–related disease. Before the experiment, all participants were requested to
have adequate rest and do nothing provocative in 72 hours prior to the
measurements.
Apparatus The entire experiment was carried out in the driving simulation
Autosim which had the same appearance and feelings as real car driving (Dehui,H,
et al., 2006). The cars used were Toyota models which can supply an interesting
driving experience. Driving scene was projected on the big front screen with VGA.
Driver's perspective in the horizontal direction was 60°, and the vertical direction
was 40°. The laboratory temperature was 20-23℃ and soft lighting was set at 5 Lux.
The KF2 detector, which consisted of a host, a vice belt, a software CD-ROM, and a
charger, was mainly used to record signals of ECG, HR, Respiratory rate (RP), body
(body moving), and the surface temperature. The ECG monitor used is displayed in
Figure 2.
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Figure 2. ECG Monitor.

Variables The various time-domain indicators of ECG were employed to

describe the changing process of driving fatigue. Four time domain components
could be calculated from ECG recordings, 2 minutes mean of HR, 2 minutes mean of
RP, standard deviation of RR interval (SDNN), and mean of RR interval (MEAN).
Method Orthogonal experimental design is an experimental design method
used to examine many levels of many factors. It is an efficient, rapid, and economic
method of experimental design (Zhenxue.L, 2005). The main purpose of this
orthogonal experimental was to balance the different types of sound stimulus, collect
various psychological and physiological indicators, and analyze effects of each
factor on reducing driver fatigue. The experiment was mainly related to four factors
which have three levels each. The test was performed according to the orthogonal
table L9 (3)4 that is shown in Table 5. Its subscript 9 represents the number of
experiments, 3 in brackets represents the number of factor levels, and the index 4
indicates that four factors can be arranged at most.
By actual measurement, the noise of vehicle simulator was at 60 dB or so.
This experiment simulated the actual driving state, and given that long period of
driving in the environment with a noise above 85 dB would lead to hearing
impairment, so 60 dB, 70 dB, 80 dB were selected as the levels of sonic intensity.
Research showed that alert sounds should meet the requirement of high-frequency.
Hence 1050 Hz, 5800 HZ, and 10750 Hz were selected as levels of sonic frequency.
Three different stimulating times were tested in this study which were between 3s
and 7s; stimulating intervals varied between 10s and 60s. Table 1 shows the different
factors and levels of sound.
Table 1. Factor Level Sheet.
factors A B C D
levels （dB） (HZ) (S) (S)
1 60 1050 3 10
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2 70 5800 5 30
3 80 10750 7 60
A- Sonic intensity; B-Sonic frequency; C- Stimulating time; D-Stimulating interval
Procedures The entire experiment lasted about 60 minutes. For every
subject, 10 experiments were completed in 10 days. The experiment was performed
between 12:30 -14: 00. This period of the day is associated with the secondary peak
in circadian-based sleepiness and is considered to be the high-frequency time for
accidents (Pack AI, 1995). All the experimental processes were basically the same.
Before the experiment, subjects were ensured to be in full understanding of
the experimental process. Experimental personnel placed ECG electrodes which
required around 10 minutes per subject. Then the subject entered the driving
simulator, experimental personnel adjusted the relative position of each section of
the virtual instrument, and then connected the feedback machine to the subject.
Psychological and physiological signals of subject in the natural, quiet state were
recorded for five minutes. The test was commenced.
The first test required drivers to complete driving tasks without any outside
interference. This lasted for 40 minutes. The other nine tests required drivers to drive
30 minutes naturally. The subject was stimulated with different types of sound which
had been randomly sampled in a sequence before experiment. Previous studies
found that driving fatigue symptoms appeared within 30 minutes in the driving
simulation cabin. Fatigue phenomenon occurred even if there was no sleep
deprivation.
In order to allow vehicles to have the tendency of moving towards the right
roadside under the influence of cross-slope, we loaded the breeze from left side of
the road to the right side in the driving process. This made the driving environment
more realistic.
Statistical Analysis All data were coded and analyzed using SPSS software.
The significance level was set at α=0.05 for all analysis performed. Firstly, the paper
analyzed the changing law of ECG time domain indicators with the driving time.
Paired-Samples T Test was applied to validate the effectiveness of each index as
evaluation indicator of driving fatigue. Because of human adaptability, 8 minutes
period mean of ECG indicators was selected as a reference value which paired T test
with 30 minutes period mean of ECG. Principal component analysis (PCA) was
applied to measure degree of fatigue from combined ECG signals which can reduce
the variables dimensions. Then, a repeated measures analysis of variance was
performed to identify whether differences existed in the different types of sound on
reducing driving fatigue by the software. Finally, the best combination of factors and
levels of sound were selected by analysis of variance of orthogonal experiment.
RESULT
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Result of Each ECG Signal Figure 3 presents changes of ECG time-

domain signals on the average of every 2 minutes with driving time. The result
shows that there was a linear relationship between each index and driving time.
SDNN and MEAN increased obviously when driving time increased. HR decreased
significantly with driving time increased, while RP decreased slightly. Table 2
identifies a significant difference of SDNN, MEAN and HR between 8 minutes and
30 minutes of the experiment (sig. <0.05). There was no significant difference of RP
with driving time (sig. >0.05).

Figure 3 The Variations of ECG Time-Domain Signals with Driving Time.

Table 2. The Result of Paired-T Test.

correlation p t Sig.
(t-tailed)
SDNN 0.855 0.000 -7.841 0.000***
MEAN 0.934 0.000 -3.772 0.001**
HR 0.95 0.000 4.385 0.000***
RP -0.438 0.047 0.686 0.06
Overall index 0.942 0.000 -5.626 0.000***
*Significant at sig. <0.05, ** Significant at sig. <0.01, ***Significant at sig. <0.001

Identification of Overall ECG Index Although each indicator of ECG was

reliable enough to evaluate the driving fatigue, the different driving environment and
individual differences in different drivers caused a great volatility of data. Thereby
the paper analyzed the original variables of ECG, established the relationship of all
indicators, and determined the overall index of driving fatigue evaluation to exclude
interference of other factors and improve the accuracy of evaluation.
Table 3. Pearson Correlation Coefficient Analysis.
SDNN MEAN HR
SDNN Pearson Correlation 1 .919** -.957**
Sig.(2-tailed) .000 .000
MEAN Pearson Correlation .919** 1 -.969**
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Sig.(2-tailed) .000 .000

HR Pearson Correlation -.957** -.969** 1
Sig.(2-tailed) .000 .000
**.correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
*.correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).
Since SDNN, MEAN ， and HR showed linear change as driving time
increased and there was correlation between each indicator as shown in Table 3, an
overall ECG index was developed to represent total ECG time domain signals using
principal component analysis. According to PCA theorems, the first principal
component of the cumulative contribution rate had reached more than 90%, so the
first principal component was the most representative. Equation (1) showed the
overall ECG index.
Overall ECG index=0.925× SDNN + 0.963× MEAN- 0.99× HR (1)
740
overall ECG index

720
700
y = 4.4829x + 668.34
680 2
R = 0.9193
660
640
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
driving time (min)

Figure 4. The Variations Of Overall ECG Index With Driving Time.

Figure 4 presents the relationship between overall ECG index and driving
time. A higher overall ECG index corresponded to more driving fatigue. The paired-
sampled T test revealed significant differences in driving time at 8 minutes and 30
minutes (sig. <0.001).
Validation of Sound Type Repeated measures analysis of variance was
adopted to identify whether there were significant differences among different types
of sound stimulus to alleviate driving fatigue. Each driver repeated the experiment
under nine types of sound which belonged to different experimental conditions. So
before and after measurement methods at 10 minutes are used to test measurement.
The within-subject effect was used to analyze the significant change of the index
before and after sound stimulus. The between-subject effect was used to analyze the
significant change of the index under the different types of sound. The results
showed that the impact of different types of sound stimulus to alleviate driving
fatigue were significantly different.
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Table 4. Tests of Effects.

TypeⅢ Sum of Squares F P
Within-Subjects Effect 8575587.702 1917.171 .000
17501373.369 2090.719 .000
Between-Subjects Effect
Analysis of the Effectiveness of Sound Stimulus Least square method was used
for liner regression of overall ECG index average before 10 min and after 10 min
stimulus of nine types of sound respectively. The slope difference of the regression
equation of before and after stimulus was chosen as an indicator of the orthogonal
experiment. It was a "larger the better" experiment: the greater the slope difference
was, the lower driving fatigue would be. The slope difference of the linear regression
equation was added to the table to set up data sets，and calculate the amount of
deviation K1, K2, K3 and difference R of each list.
Table 5. The Experimental Scheme and Result.
Factors 1 2 3 4 slope
Test No. A B C D difference
1 1 1 1 1 6.25
2 1 2 2 2 14.47
3 1 3 3 3 4.83
4 2 1 2 3 7.93
5 2 2 3 1 11.87
6 2 3 1 2 18.72
7 3 1 3 2 11.82
8 3 2 1 3 5.48
9 3 3 2 1 7.26
K1 25.56 26.00 30.45 25.38
slope K2 38.53 31.83 29.66 45.01
88.67
difference K3 24.56 30.81 28.52 18.25
R 13.97 5.83 1.93 26.76

Analysis of the experimental results based on orthogonal experimental and

the results of variance analysis are displayed in Table 6 along with the relevant
formulas.

Simplified Formula for Factor of Sum Square of Deviance:

1
S = [( K 1 − K 2 ) 2 + ( K 2 − K 3 ) 2 + ( K 1 − K 3 ) 2 ] (2)
9
Simplified Formula for Degree of Freedom： f i = m − 1 (3)
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And: m——the number of factor level (ind)

Formula for the Total Sum Square of Deviance: S T = S A + S B + S C + S D (4)

Formula for The Sum Degree of Freedom： f T = f A + f B + f C + f D (5)

The Mean Change：Mean Square = S / f (6)

SA / fA
Ratio： FA = (7)
Se / f e

Table 6. Table of Variance Analysis.

Source Type Ⅲ Sum of Squares df Mean Square F P
SA 40.48637 2 20.24318401 64.067185 *
SB 6.450341 2 3.225170348 10.207267
SD 128.0038 2 64.00192186 202.5582 **
Sc 0.631936 2
S总 175.5724 8
Fα F 0.01 (2,2)=99.01, F0.05 (2， 2)=19.00
*Significant at F> F0.05, ** Significant at F> F0.01

The sum of squares of the factor C is much smaller than others, so the factor
C is selected as a source of experimental error. The results of variance analysis were
shown in Table 6. It revealed that factors D ((F> F0.01) and A (F> F0.05) had
significant influence on experiment results, while factor B (F<F0.05), C (F<F0.05)
had no significant influence. The ranking of the factors that affected the overall ECG
index was D, A, B and C in turn.
According to the value of K1, K2, K3 ,we can conclude that the best sound
combination of factors and levels is A2 B2 C1 D2. This proves that it is the best sound
type to reduce driving fatigue while factor A is at 70dB, factor B is at 5800HZ,
factor is C at 3s and factor is D at30s.

CONCLUSION
This study investigated the four ECG time domain signals, SDNN, MEAN,
HR, and RP to assess driving fatigue. Some significant differences were detected
from an alert state to a fatigued state over time. This study has also demonstrated a
significant increase in SDNN, MEAN signals, and a significant drop in HR signal as
the alertness level decreased during the late stage of a monotonous driving task. The
overall ECG index obtained by PCA method also indicated that there was significant
difference at the end of the monotonous driving session compared to 8 minutes of
experiment at the beginning. These findings are basically the same as previous study
on driving fatigue based on psychological study. It will lay the foundation for the
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technology of driving fatigue detection.

This paper is based on the variation of overall ECG signal by orthogonal
experimental design and concludes that sound stimulus countermeasures against
driving fatigue are clearly feasible. Stimulating interval and sonic intensity had great
effect on driving fatigue, but sonic frequency and stimulating time had no significant
influence. The best combination of sound stimulus under three factors and four
levels are sonic intensity of 70 dB, sonic frequency of 5000 Hz, stimulating time of
3s, and stimulating interval of 20s. The paper provided theoretical support for a
sound alarming system. Alarming cues should not only play a warning role but the
role of reducing fatigue to a great extent. This will allow the driver maintain
alertness over a certain period of time thus ensuring that the drivers take appropriate
measures in enough time to avoid road traffic accidents caused by fatigue.
This investigation has some limitations. Firstly, the study did not compare
driving fatigue between drivers of different age groups. Secondly, drivers may be
more motivated to maintain vigilance during actual driving than when using a
simulator. However, the findings of simulator experiments can yield important
suggestions regarding countermeasures against driving fatigue.
Future studies will focus on recordings from distinct groups of drivers rather
than individuals. Simultaneously, we will integrate psychology, physiology,
behavioral science, and other disciplines to optimize the experiment scheme thereby
developing a comprehensive set of sound countermeasure systems.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was conducted at the Beijing University of Technology and
was funded by the “2008 Scientific and Technological Innovation Platform-Study on
Driving Error Mechanism” and “Countermeasures, and A Study of The Mechanism
and Evaluation for Road Environment and Driver Fatigue”. The project is under
Grant: JJ004011200803

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Wei, C. (2000). “Driving fatigue: Prevention of French Strategy.” Social
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Meshkati(Eds.), Advances in Psychology,52, 63-100
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Yukie Hirata. (2001). “A Study of the Effective Way to Release Scent to Maintain
Alertness.” JSAE Review. (22), 331~336
Yushu, Y.,Zhenqiang, Y., Zengyong, L.( 2002) “Investigation on Correlation
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Zhenxue, L. (2005). “Experiment Design and Data Process.” Chemical Industry
Press, 62-74
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Speed Transition Zone Design based on Driving Simulator Research

Ting XU1，Xiaoduan SUN2, Weili WANG 3 ,Yulong HE4

1
Key Lab of Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing,
100124,PH:86-10-67391597; FAX: 86-10-67391597;EMAIL:annabelxu@163.com
2
Key Lab of Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing,
100124,86-10-67391597, FAX: 86-10-67391597;EMAIL: xsun@louisiana.edu
3
Transportation Engineering Department, Xi’an Highway Research Institute ,Xi’an
Wenyi Road , 710058,PH: 029-87827241;EMAIL:wangweili68@sohu.com
4
Key Lab of Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing,
100124,PH:86-10-67391597;FAX: 86-10-67391597;EMAIL: ylhe@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Large speed gaps may increase risks between adjacent speed zones. Therefore,
a speed transition zone is designed to provide a smooth change between two
highway segments with different speed limits. The purpose of this study is to
establish a procedure for transitional speed zone design on two-lane roads by using
drivers’ behavioral statistics.
In order to evaluate the effect of the speed limit zone on drivers’ deceleration
behaviors when passing different speed zones, two factors were considered in this
study: existence of work zones and horizon curves. The speed gaps in this
experiment are 50 km/h in work zone areas and 20 km/h respectively.
By using randomly selected drivers, the study measured drivers’ actions in a
real vehicle under the simulated environment traveling between speed zones at a
0.03 second intervals. Several different measures of effectiveness were used to
compare the characteristics of the speed distributions, including average speed, 85th
percentile speed and pace speed. Results show that there is a significant difference in
speed choice for deceleration between two scenarios due to speed reduction.
The relationship between speed limit reduction and deceleration length is
described by a linear model. The length of the deceleration section is estimated by
the model. Results show that the deceleration section is positively correlated to
speed reduction. The modeling process gives detailed guidance for the design of a
transitional speed zone.
1. INTRODUCTION
A speed limit is important for enhancing safety and transportation efficiency.
Although MUTCD provides guidance on how speed limit signs should be posted, it
gives no detailed information about setting speed zones. However, compared to
uniform speed limits, the establishment of speed zones needs special consideration.
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A speed zone is shown in Figure 1 and consists of advance warning, transitional zone
and active speed zone.

Figure 1. Speed zone.

Adequate and timely speed adaptation can be challenging as drivers transition

between different speed zones. Some drivers may brake suddenly to slow down the
vehicle before reaching the speed change point while creating larger speed deviation.
The abrupt speed change may create potential safety problems. A sufficient length of
transitional zone is required to make speed zones closer to drivers’ expectations and
maintain a successive consistency as illustrated in Figure 2.

Potential accidents
Deceleration Section
Speed(km/h)

Operation speed

Speed limit

Speed zone1 Speed zone2

Figure 2 (a). Speed zones without transition zones.

Speed limit 1

Operation speed
Speed km/h

Speed limit2

Speed limit 3

Speed zone1 Transition speed zone Speed zone2

Figure 2(b). Transition speed zone setting.

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Thus, an understanding of drivers’ behavior in regards to speed changing

decisions on two-lane rural highways can significantly contribute to safety
considerations and speed zone design. The primary objectives of this research are 1)
to investigate drivers’ behaviors with a simulator when passing different speed
zones, 2) to compare differences of behavior in work zones and curve scenarios, 3)
to develop a linear model to describe this relationship and recommend a transitional
speed zone design.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Many previous studies on this topic focused on a deceleration section and
transitional section (2). Their results recommend that maximum deceleration rates
not be used by drivers except in emergency situations. Deceleration rates up to
2
3.0m / s 2 ( 10 ft / sec ) are reasonably comfortable for occupants of passenger cars.

Collins et al. (3) and Figueroa and Tarko (4) evaluated driver behavior before and
after horizontal curves. The deceleration and acceleration rates were computed on
the basis of the 85th percentile speeds. Speed models for transitional sections were
developed from their study which showed that 66% of deceleration transition and
72% of acceleration transition occur on the preceding and the following tangents to
a curve, respectively. Lamm et al. (5) recommended transition lengths between
successive curves and for tangent-to-curve transitional sections based on the
difference in speeds between successive design elements or between the operating
speed and the design speed. Hassan et al. (6) proposed a three-dimensional model
integrating operating speed models with sight distance and vehicle dynamics
requirements. Then, it applied acceleration rates developed by Lamm et al. and also
assumed that the speed transition occurred entirely on the approach of tangents.
Francesco Bella (7) uses driving behaviors with a simulator for rural two-lane roads
and finds that the existing speed profile models do not consider the length of the
transition section and its location with respect to the horizontal curve. The Florida
government (8) studied the length of transitional speed zones and points out that a
minimum zone length should be based on natural deceleration. Kyeong-Pyo Kang (9)
found that when 55 mph is used as the PSL for a work zone instead of 65mph, there
would be a longer and smoother speed transition between the 75 speed mph and 55
mph speed zones.

3. METHODOLOGY
The technique used for this research involves the use of a driving simulator in a
laboratory setting to examine the effects of driving behaviors while passing different
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speed zones. With the advanced technology available today, simulators have been
widely used as an effective way to study drivers’ behaviors since they can control
the driving environment even though it may be different from actual situations to
certain degree. The simulated vehicle cab featured all normal automotive displays
and controls found in an automatic vehicle to record real-time information.

3.2Simulator Experiment
3.2.1 Participants
Four participants were randomly selected from the staff and post-graduate
students at Beijing University of Technology and each possessed a Chinese driver’s
license. The average age of the subjects was 26.3. None of participants had previous
experience in the driving simulator.
The simulator hardware consists of four networked computers and three
interfaces. One computer processes the motion equations while others generate the
images. The hardware interfaces include a steering wheel, pedals and a gearshift
lever. They are mounted on a real vehicle in order to create a very realistic driving
environment. The road scenario is projected onto three screens, one in front of the
vehicle and one on each side. The scenario is refreshed dynamically according to the
traveling conditions of the vehicle; the actions of the driver on the pedals and the
steering wheel are recorded. Many parameters related to traveling conditions were
recorded at a frequency of 30 Hz. The simulator is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Driving Simulators.

3.2.2 Scenario Design
In order to explore the effects of different speed gaps on driver behaviors, tangent
sections with existing work zones and horizontal curves were developed. The default
speed limit for both scenes on the tangent were 80 km/h and no longitudinal grade
exists for both scenarios. Drivers received training on how to drive in a vehicle in a
simulated three-dimensional environment.
 Existence of Work zone
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The work zone tested in this study is 150 meters long located on the right lane
of a multi-lane highway (two lanes in each direction) on the tangent segment. The
tangent section is 2km long with 80km/h default speed limit. The speed limit gap is
50 km/h without a transition zone (from 80km/h to 30km/h). Figure 4(a)(b) shows
the tangent with work zone.

(a) Video Scenario (b) CAD Chart

Figure 4. Workzone Scenario.
 Curve scenario
As shown in Figure 5(a)(b) the sections before and after the curve are 160m and
200m long. The radius is 600m and whole length is 420m. The speed limit gap in
this scenario is 20km/h (from 80km/h to 60km/h) A warning sign is posted 200
meters in advance of the 60 mph speed limit zone.

(a) Video Scenario (b) CAD chart

Figure 5. Two different Scenarios.

4. DATA ANALYSIS
In this experiment, driving behaviors were measured by sensors installed on
the simulators, which included real-time speed, steering data, acceleration,
deceleration, left/right turn and other basic driving skills. Data are recorded at a 30s
frequency. Video was recorded for each participant at the same time, so as to match
the road environment with real-time speed records in the following data process. A
total of 32 speed-profiles of eight drivers were analyzed. In order to obtain objective
results, original samples are aggregated into one second.
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4.1 Driver Behaviors Analysis

For the work zone, speeds at three spots are particularly interesting for speed
choice statistics including the deceleration line, where a 30km/h speed limit is
posted, and where 30km/h speed limit is repealed. For the curve scenario, speeds at
warning signs, the beginning of curves, mid-point of curves, and end of curves are
collected. Table 1 shows the statistical results for both situations.

Table 1. Speed Statistics for Both Situations.

Work zone (km/h)
Location Min Max mean Dev. obj
Deceleration_bar 31.93 93.07 76.68 12.87 16
In_workzone 24.55 68.73 40.22 10.04 16
Out_workzone 24.93 63.83 37.11 10.37 16
Curve Scenario(km/h)
Warning_sign 61.22 92.66 77.86 6.725 16
Start_curve 49.43 89.72 68.134 10.52 16
Mid_point 54.42 69.28 61.09 3.214 16
End_curve 47.76 80.822 65.523 8.122 16
From Table 1, the work zone scenario, in which the speed gap is 50km/h, the
average speed difference between deceleration bar and start point of speed zone is
36 km/h. This means that drivers cannot reach the new speed limit 30km/h at the
beginning of the speed zone. Speed deviation was gradually decreasing when
approaching the new speed zone. For the curve scenario, in which the speed limit
gap is 20km/h, the mean speed difference between the warning sign and mid point
of curve is 16km/h. In the curve scenario, drivers could adapt to the new speed limit
easily near the speed limit sign.

5. TRANSITION SECTION DESIGN

5.1 Modeling Process
The modeling process follows the following assumptions:
 Drivers keep a preferred speed on the tangent based within the speed limit.
 Drivers apply a uniform deceleration rate to adjust their speeds.
The whole deceleration process is described in Figure 6.
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Deceleration length Ld
Ld
VPSZ 1

Speed limit1

Vd
Vchange
VPSZ 2

Speed limit2

VPSZ 3

Speed limit 3

Speed zone1 Transition zone Speed zone 3

Figure 6. Speed changing on transition section.

The model is established as a function of operating speed-approaching tangent

and speed difference of the successive speed limit zone. The speed model for the
deceleration section has the following form:
 VPSL1 − Vchange
Td =
 VPSL1 − VPSL 2

=
Vd Vchange − ld * d （1）

Vd = VPSL1 − Td (VPSl1 − VPSL 2 ) + d * l d （2）

⇒ (VPSL1 + d * ld − Vd ) /(VPSL1 − VPSL 2 ) =

Td

Where:
Vd : speed measured inside the deceleration section;

VPSL1 and VPSL 2 are successive operation speed in speed zone 1 and speed zone 2

Td : is the portion of the transition curve located on the tangent section;

ld is position of the speed measurement spot

d : deceleration rate((m/s)/s); and
related to the beginning of the curve.
The position of spot is the distance between the spot and the end of the curve
with a negative sign if the spot is before the end of the curve and with a positive sign
otherwise.

5.2 Model fitting process

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Each driver drove five times .There is a distinguished difference between the
first two loops and last three loops based on the original analysis. Therefore,
participants’ data were divided into two groups: first two loops were considered as
an unfamiliar situation and last three loops were considered as familiar. Data at four
specified locations were used for the speed comparison. The parameters in Equation
1 are calculated in Table 2 for the work zone situation.

Table 2. Scenario 1 Calculation(part).

Unfamiliar VPSL1 VPSL 2 Vd d ld Td
26.20 8.333 25.820 0.069 69.365 0.289
26.20 8.333 22.639 0.069 43.545 0.367
50km/h 26.20 8.333 20.905 0.069 20.905 0.377
gaps 25.42 11.072 25.291 0.115 59.214 0.483
25.42 11.072 23.110 0.115 36.104 0.450
25.42 11.072 18.939 0.115 17.164 0.589
Familiar VPSL1 VPSL 2 Vd d ld Td
19.44 8.845 14.64 0.115 41.24 0.903
50km/h
19.44 8.845 14.04 0.115 26.60 0.80
gaps
19.44 8.845 12.55 0.115 12.55 0.787

The average Td is calculated, thus the linear models for the work zones
transition section are estimated in each group
Vd =
VT − 0.4719(VPSL1 − VPSL 2 ) + 0.107 * ld unfamiliar (3)
Transition section length can be described as follows:
(80 − 30) / 3.6
=Ld = 129
0.107 (m)

Transition section on tangent road 129*0.4719 = 61 (m)

Vd =
VT − 0.8766(VPSL1 − VPSL 2 ) + 0.1104* ld Familiar (4)
Transition section length can be described as follows:
(80 − 30) / 3.6
=Ld = 125
0.1104 (m)
Transition section on tangent road
125*0.8766 = 109.575 (m)
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As shown in the two equations above, if drivers are not familiar with the
roadway environment, they maintain a normal deceleration rate 0.0797(m/s) /s and
about 49% complete the deceleration section on the tangent. When drivers become
familiar with the environment, they increase the deceleration rate and start a
deceleration performance in advance to meet the speed zone in time. The transition
section on the tangent becomes longer. The parameters are calculated as in Table 3
for the curve situation.

Table 3. Scenario 2 calculation(part).

Unfamiliar VPSL1 VPSL 2 Vd d ld Td
23.61 16.67 23.79 0.139 39.34 0.757
23.61 16.67 21.25 0.139 18.08 0.700
30km/h
16.67 24.44 24.27 0.091 41.02 0.505
16.67 24.44 18.95 0.091 0 0.705
…
Familiar 21.60994 13.88889 21.14 0.125043 54.40914 0.93827
21.60994 13.88889 18.48339 0.125043 33.26914 0.905449
Scenario2
20.11436 13.61111 14.97428 0.12474 14.97428 1.
80-60
20.11436 13.61111 14.78892 0.12474 0 1
…

The best specification of the model for deceleration transition section as shown in
Figure 6, in m/s, is
Vd =
VT − 0.6878(VPSL1 − VPSL 2 ) + 0.1150* ld (5)
The deceleration length is
80 / 3.6 − 60 / 3.6
= 48.309
0.1150 (m)
For people who were not familiar with the road, 68.78% deceleration behaviors
are on tangent, so that the length of the deceleration section on tangent is
66*0.6878 = 33.2 (m)
For familiar situations on curves, the average deceleration rate for familiar
situations is 0.1250 m/s/s and then the deceleration length is
80 / 3.6 − 60 / 3.6
= 44.44
0.1250 (m)
The data in Table 3 indicates that for people who are familiar with the road，the
location of transition zones is random and there is no fixed model established.
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In the fitting process above, three models are established as shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Model fitting results.

Models Work zone Horizontal curves
Unfamiliar Vd =
VT − 0.4719(VPSL1 − VPSL 2 ) + 0.107 * ld Vd =
VT − 0.6878(VPSL1 − VPSL 2 ) + 0.1150* ld
(a) (b)
familiar Vd =
VT − 0.8766(VPSL1 − VPSL 2 ) + 0.1104* ld N/A
(c) (d)

5.3 Transition speed zone setting

The 50km/h speed gap is so large that there is a significant difference of drivers’
behavior existing between the familiar and unfamiliar groups. Familiar drivers will
slow by 87.66% before entering curves. Suppose that L represents the total length
for 50 gaps’ deceleration. Drivers will complete 87% L for deceleration on a tangent
before entering another speed zone. On the other hand, there is no significant
difference for the 20km/h speed gap. Therefore, it is unnecessary to set up transition
zones for 20 km/h speed gaps. The layout of speed zones is shown in Figure 7.

Tangent section

Speed zone1 Transition zone Speed zone 2

80
80 50 30

0.87 L

L
50km/h gap

Figure 7. Transition zone layout setting.

6. CONCLUSIONS
A simulator was used to study drivers’ behaviors when passing through
different speed zones. Real-time vehicles’ information was collected at 0.0333
intervals. Various characteristics of the distribution of speeds were calculated for
each group’s analysis. The standard deviation at deceleration sections provides
information on the dispersion in speeds, which affects the potential for vehicle
conflicts. In general, speed dispersion increases as the difference from the speed
limit increases. The relationship between speed reduction and deceleration length
was developed. Sufficient transitional length is designed based on the deceleration
model to smooth the speed change. Driving simulators can be used to evaluate the
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effects of speed limit zones, although observed behavior in simulators may be

different from that of actual situations.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This project speed limit and control technologies for highways in west China is
supported by West Transportation Construction Program. The author would like to
thank Key Lab of transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Technology for
providing simulators and equipment. Also, special thanks to the graduate students
who helped us in data collection.

REFERENCE
1. Vaughan W. Inman, Sheryl Miller, Severius D. Tackett, John A. Molino,Abdulilah
Z. Zineddin. Exploration of Appropriate Intervals for Locating Speed

Limit Signs, TRB 2008 Annual Meeting CD-ROM.

2.Traffic Engineering handbook fifth edition,ITE institute of Transportation
Engineers,1999.
3. Collins, K.M., Krammes, R.A. Preliminary Validation of a Speed-Profile Model
for Design Consistency Evaluation. Transportation Research Record:
Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No 1523. TRB, National
Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1996, 11-21.
4. Figueroa, A., and Tarko, 2005,“Speed factors on two-lane rural highways in free-
flow conditions.” Transportation Research Record.,1912, Transportation
Research Board, Washington, D.C., 39–46.
5. Lamm, R., Psarianos, B., and Mailaender, 1999,Highway design and, traffic safety
engineering handbook, McGraw-Hill, New York.
6. Hassan, Y., Gibreel, G., and Easa, 2000,Evaluation of highway, consistency and
safety: Practical application, Journal of Transportation Engineering,126(3)
193–201.
7. Francesco Bella ,Driving simulator for speed research on two-lane rural roads,
Accident Analysis and Prevention 2008.( 40 )1078–1087.
8. Speed Zoning for Highway, Roads and Streets in Florida, 2005.
9. Kyeong-Pyo Kang,Development of optimal control strategies for freeway work
zone operations, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Maryland, 2006.
10. Ng, S.T., Cheu, R.L., Lee, D.H., 2006. Simulation evaluation of the benefits of
real-time traffic information to trucks during incidents. Journal of
Intelligent Transportation, Systems 10 (2), 89–99.
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Effectiveness of Rumble Strips on Freeways

Yang YANG1 Xiaoduan SUN 2 Yulong HE 3

(Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124)
1. Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing,
100124, Phone: 010-67391597; Email:yangyangat006@126.com
2. Professor, Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology,
Beijing,100124, Phone: 010-67391597; Email: xdsun@bjut.edu.cn
3. Assistant Professor, Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing,100124, Phone: 010-67391597; Email: ylhe@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Controlling speed is very important for roadway safety since speeding increases
the severity of crashes. By offering the highest mobility, freeways are more
vulnerable to fatalities and crashes involving injury. How to effectively control
operating speeds at certain freeway sections is an important topic in China. This
paper presents a study on the effectiveness of rumble strips on freeways through a
user survey and field observation. The main results indicate that drivers’ view of the
effectiveness of rumble strips on freeways is inconsistent in different regions. By
analyzing speed before and after rumble strips, this paper tries to estimate the impact
of this speed control device on speed reduction.

1. INTRODUCTION
Excessive and inappropriate speed is the most important factor contributing to
the road injury problem faced by China; the higher the speed the greater the stopping
distance required, and hence the increase risk of a crash. According to the 2008
Statistical Yearbook of road traffic crashes released by the Ministry of Public
Security Traffic Management Bureau, crashes caused by vehicle speeding accounted
for 10.17% of the total number, deaths, injuries and property damage accounted for
14.4%, 9.44% and 10.59% respectively (Ministry of Public Security Traffic
Management Bureau, 2009). Therefore, speed control is an extremely important part
of freeway management and a useful tool for improving roadway safety. Studies at
home and abroad have shown that speed difference and operating speed are the two
most important factors inducing crashes. Therefore, speed control aims to reduce the
number and severity of crashes resulting from speeding.
This paper presents a study on the effectiveness of rumble strips on freeways
through user surveys and field observation. A rumble strip is a physical speed
control device, created by hot thermoplastic traffic marking material and each strip
covering the whole road width. The vehicle produces jitters and oscillation when
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passing through, so it is useful to suggest that drivers slow down. The strip thickness
can be flexibly adjusted to actual situations within a certain range serving the
purpose of speed control and ensure driving comfort.

2. USER SURVEY
We conducted a random survey of drivers on the XI Han-freeway and AN Xin-
freeway according to research requirements. The main survey locations were service
areas and gas stations. The user survey helps to understand drivers’ view of
effectiveness of rumble strips on the freeway in different regions. The XI Han-
freeway is located in mountainous terrain while AN Xin-freeway is in a plain area.
The survey sample size and results of analysis are shown in Table 1 and Figure 1.

Table 1. Sample size.

Region Plain Mountainous terrain
sample 40 115

plain mountainous terrain

50%
39.1% 40.0%
40% 35.0%
29.5% 31.4%
30% 25.0%

20%

10%

0%
radar speed limit ramble strip
signs

Figure 1. Statistics of driver opinions.

The vertical coordinates of Figure 1 express that the proportion of drivers who
consider the effectiveness of some sort of speed control device is high. As can be
seen, the proportion of drivers who consider the effectiveness of rumble strips is
better on freeways in mountainous terrain at 31.4%, although this ratio is lower than
radar but higher than speed limit signs. The proportion of drivers who consider the
rumble strip better on freeways in plain area is 25%, lower than both radar and speed
limit signs. It can be seen that drivers’ views of the effectiveness of rumble strips on
freeways varies across different regions.
3. FIELD OBSERVATION
We set an observation section before and after a rumble strip on the freeway to
study its effectiveness and analyze the distribution of speed and the extent of speed
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reduction.

3.1 Yellow arrow-shaped ramble strip

Data collection and sample selection
Data was collected in the vicinity of a rumble strip on LUOFu-freeway where
the slope is 6% and the horizontal curve radius is 409 meters. The rumble strip here
is yellow arrow shaped which is formed by six groups with a total length of 95
meters. Data was collected by MetroCount 5600 in the daytime of workdays. The
observation section and sample size are shown in Figure 2 and Table 2.

Table 2. Sample size.

Detection section Before After
sample 442 451

ramble strip（6 groups）

95meters
before after

Figure 2. Detection section.

Speed Data Analysis

According to the requirements of "Technical Standards of Highway
Engineering" (JTG B01-2003), vehicles are divided into two categories. Vehicles
with a wheelbase less than or equal to 3.8 meters are defined as a car, and those
with a wheelbase greater than 3.8 meters as a truck. In the next part, the speeds of
trucks and cars will be analyzed separately.
①Statistical description of speed

Table 3. Statistical description of speed. Unit: km / h

Speed indexes Before After
mean 58.8 49.0
standard deviation 11.1 8.5
truck 15th percentile speed 47.9 40.6
50th percentile speed 58.2 48.5
85th percentile speed 70.3 58.3
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mean 72.8 57.8

standard deviation 15.9 13.9
car 15th percentile speed 55.8 43.0
50th percentile speed 73.0 57.5
85th percentile speed 90.9 72.6

As can be seen from Table 3, speed of both trucks and cars were high before
arriving at the rumble strip, speed decreased distinctly after the rumble strip, 85th
percentile speeds of cars and trucks decreased by 17.1% and 20.1% respectively,
while mean speed, 15th percentile speed, 50th percentile speed and standard deviation
also decreased to different extents, and almost all the speed indexes of cars
decreased more than trucks.
②Speed distribution
We performed one-sample K-S test on the speed data (XUTing et al., 2008),
and the test results indicate that the data collected is in accordance with normal
distribution. The speed distribution of trucks and cars are shown in Figures 3 and 4.

5% 4%
before before
4% after
probability

3%
probability

after

3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0% 0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
speed（km/h） speed（km/h）

Figure 3. Speed distribution of truck Figure 4. Speed distribution of car

before and after rumble strip. before and after rumble strip.

Figures 3 and 4 illustrate that the speed distributions of trucks and cars are
similar. Speed and its dispersion are high before arriving at rumble strips, speed of
trucks principally range from 50 km/h to 70 km/h while cars are 60 km/h to 90 km/h.
After passing through the rumble strip, the speed distribution curve significantly
offsets to left, meanwhile the speed dispersion decreases. The truck speed is
concentrated on 40 km/h-60 km/h while cars are on 50 km/h-70 km/h. However, the
speed dispersion of cars is always greater than that of trucks, perhaps influenced by
vehicle dynamic performance.
Through a before-and-after study, it is discovered that the effectiveness of
rumble strips is fairly good, and its effectiveness on cars is more evident than on
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trucks. The reasons may be that the rumble strip here is yellow arrow-shaped which
not only narrows the lane visually but also makes driver perceive a higher speed
besides produces continuous jitter and vibration.
③ Speed difference significance test
With the normal sample of each section to do an independent samples t-test in
the unknown variance condition. The formula is as follows.
(X -Y )
T= ~ t (n1 + n2 - 2)
1 1
S +
w
n 1 n2

The T-test is to inspect the significant difference between the means of two
samples. The null hypothesis of two independent samples t -est is: there is no
significant difference between two overall means. If the probability of the t-test
statistic p is less than significance level α, then reject the null hypothesis and report
that the means of two samples are significantly different; On the contrary, accept
null hypothesis (XUEWei, 2009).
We conducted a t-test on the speed data of trucks before and after rumble strips.
The results are shown in Table 4.
Table 4. Independent samples t test for speed of truck.
Independent Samples Test

Levene's Test for

Equality of Variances t-test for Equality of Means
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Mean Std. Error Difference
F Sig. t df Sig. (2-tailed) Difference Difference Lower Upper
Equal variances assumed 12.828 .000 10.608 451 .000 9.7964 .92349 7.98150 11.61127
Equal variances not
10.480 401.761 .000 9.7964 .93474 7.95880 11.63397
assumed

First, we used Levene's test to examine whether the two speed variances are
equal or not, due to sig=0.000<0.05, so the test is an independent samples test in the
condition of non-equal variance. In the T-test, sig (2-tailed)=0.000<0.05, so we
reject the null hypothesis.
We conducted a t-test on the speed data of cars before and after rumble strip.
The results are shown in Table 5.

Table 5. Independent samples t test for speed of car.

Independent Samples Test

Levene's Test for

Equality of Variances t-test for Equality of Means
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Mean Std. Error Difference
F Sig. t df Sig. (2-tailed) Difference Difference Lower Upper
Equal variances assumed 5.509 .019 9.927 392 .000 14.9311 1.50403 11.97414 17.88808
Equal variances not
9.830 363.326 .000 14.9311 1.51896 11.94404 17.91818
assumed
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Due to sig=0.019<0.05, the test is an independent samples test in the condition

of non-equal variance. In T-test, sig (2-tailed)=0.000<0.05, so we reject the null
hypothesis.
From Table 4, the results of the speed difference significance test show that the
mean speeds of both trucks and cars before and after rumble strips are significantly
different.
④Change in speed difference
We hope that speed control devices can not only control the speed of vehicles,
but also guarantee the operation’s safety. Considering the characteristics of mixed
traffic flow on freeways in China as well as differences of vehicles in size,
performance and so on, there will be high crash risk if the speed difference of
vehicles in speed zones is too large, Therefore, it is necessary to avoid it. Table 6
lists the speed difference of trucks and cars before and after rumble strips. Here
DV85 = VC85 - VT 85 , VC85 is the 85th percentile speed of cars and VT 85 is the 85th

percentile speed of trucks, DV = VC - VT , VC is the mean speed of cars and VT is

mean speed of trucks.

Table 6. Vehicle speed difference. units: km / h

Before After
DV85 20.6 14.3
DV 14.0 8.8

Table 6 shows that DV85 and DV were greatly decreased when vehicles

passeduthrough ramble strip. It clearly can be seen that rumble strips effectively
reduced the speed difference between cars and trucks and improved traffic safety to
a certain extent.

3.2 White rumble strip

Data collection and sample selection
Data was collected in the vicinity of the white rumble strip on XI Han-freeway
where the lane width is 3.75 meters and shoulder width is 5 meters. The rumble strip
includes four groups, each group comprises 11 sub-groups while each sub-group is
composed of three strips, both width and spacing of strip are 20 centimeters. It is
worth mention that there is a 60/50 km/h speed limit sign at section“at”in Figure
5. The observation section and information are shown in Figure 5 and Table 7.
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Table 7. Information table.

Sample Slope Cross slope Horizontal curve radius
before 1580 3.1% 3.5% 600
at 1530 2.4% 0.2% /
after 1584 4.7% 4.6% /

car
truck

before at after

Figure 5. Detection section.

Speed Data Analysis

①Statistical description of speed
As can be seen from Table 8, the speed of trucks and cars at section “at” in
Figure 5 decreased slightly with almost no decline. This phenomenon illustrates that
the effectiveness of the former two groups’ rumble strip is extremely slight. The
speed of section “after” decreased markedly, 85th percentile speeds of trucks and
cars decreased by 15.3% and 23.2% respectively. This indicates that the effect of the
latter two groups’ rumble strip and speed limit sign used in combination is
remarkable, to some extent, it can also demonstrate the relationship between the
effectiveness of rumble strip and its density. In addition, the mean speed, 15th
percentile speed, 50th percentile speed and standard deviation also persistently
decline.

Table 8. Statistical description of speed. Unit: km / h

Speed indexes Before At After
mean 59.6 57.4 51.0
Standard deviation 13.5 13.9 10.6
truck 15th percentile speed 46.7 42.9 40.0
th
50 percentile speed 58.5 56.4 50.7
th
85 percentile speed 73.7 72.6 62.4
mean 71.3 67.6 59.1
Standard deviation 17.2 17.1 11.3
th
car 15 percentile speed 54.6 50.7 48.6
50th percentile speed 69.2 67.3 59.0
th
85 percentile speed 91.4 86.5 70.2
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 432
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②Speed distribution
Figures 6 and 7 show us speed distributions of trucks and cars; they have
similar currents. The speed distribution curve gradually offsets to the left from
section “before” to “after”; the speed dispersion comes down synchronously.

4% 4%
before before
at at
3% after 3% after

probability
probability

2% 2%

1% 1%

0% 0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
speed（km/h） speed（km/h）

Figure 6. Speed distribution of truck Figure 7. Speed distribution of car

before and after rumble strip. before and after rumble strip.

③ Speed difference significance test

The results of the speed difference significance test show significant variation
between the mean speeds of trucks and cars in the section “before” and “at” in
Figure 5 . With regard to section “at” and “after”, the same conclusion can be
obtained. The effectiveness of speed control for trucks and cars ie obviously, and the
effectiveness has a certain degree of continuity.
④Change in speed difference
From Table 9 below we can see that, DV85 and DV decrease continuously when

vehicles pass through the rumble strip. At the section “after” in Figure 5, DV85 and

DV are reduced to less than 10 km/h.

Table 9. Vehicle speed difference. units: km / h

Before At After
DV85 17.7 13.9 7.8
DV 11.7 10.2 8.1

4. CONCLUSION
This paper studied the speed data in the vicinity of two rumble strips of
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different forms in different locations, analyzed the effectiveness of rumble strips on

the freeway and obtained the following conclusions.
(1)The effectiveness of rumble strips on cars is better than on trucks. The 85th
percentile average speed of trucks and cars decrease by 16.2% and 21.7% after
passing through the rumble strip, while almost all the speed indexes of cars decrease
more than trucks. In addition, the speed distribution of cars is more concentrated. It
is likely because rumble strip gives prominence to the road surface, and the bump
amplitude generated when the vehicle passes through is closely related to the
vehicle’s weight and speed.
(2)Rumble strips effectively reduce the speed, while also reducing the speed
difference between cars and trucks, and as a result, improves traffic safety to a
certain extent. However, whether serious safety problems come to pass resulting
from rapid acceleration of vehicles downstream of speed zones still needs further
study.
(3)Data collected in this paper indicates that the effect of rumble strips and
speed limit signs used in combination is obviously better than using rumble strips
alone. But things may change in the wake of change of impact factors, such as
physical dimension of highway, form or color of the rumble strip and so on.
(4) There are some relationships between the effectiveness of rumble strips and
their density according to its principle, but what the best density is still needs further
study.
(5) In the case of using rumble strips alone, the effectiveness of the yellow
arrow-shaped rumble strip is better than the white one. The reason may be that the
yellow arrow-shaped rumble strip also plays the role of narrowing the lane visually
and making driver perceive a higher speed.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors thank all teachers and students of the road safety group at Beijing
University of Technology as well as the local traffic police department and highways
department for collecting the data.

REFERENCES
Ministry of Public Security Traffic Management Bureau(2009). 2008 Statistical
Yearbook of road traffic accidents.
Xu, Ting, Sun, Xiao-duan, Chen, Yong-sheng, et al (2008). Rationality of posted
speed on Xinjiang Bosai highway. Road traffic and safety.
Xue, Wei (2009). SPSS statistical analysis method and application[M]. Beijing:
Electronics Industry Press.
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Enforcement Cost Analysis under The Conditions of Speed Limit

Sisi LIU1, Xiaoduan SUN2 and Yulong HE3

1
The College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing, 100124; PH 010-67393982; email:cherry644446@emails.
bjut.edu.cn
2
Civil Engineering Department, University of Louisiana, Lafayette, LA 70504; PH
337-482-6514; FAX 337-482-6688; email: xsun@louisiana.edu
3
The College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing, 100124; PH 010-67391597; email: ylhe@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
The effect of speed limit enforcement ultimately depends on the presence of
police and other speed control technology. If the speed limit for a section of the
highway is perceived to be low by the majority of motorists, there would be a high
proportion of speeding vehicles. Enforcing the speed limit law at such locations
demands tremendous police resources. This would increase the cost of enforcement.
If the speed limits at such locations are not enforced due to a lack of police
manpower, the crash risk could be much higher. This paper divides the enforcement
cost into several components, then analyzes the speed limit effects of automatic
speeding enforcement and artificial speeding enforcement through the data from the
survey. It ultimately arrives at the conclusion that automatic speeding enforcement
has a much better effect on maintaining speed limit than artificial speeding
enforcement. Further it is proved that the camera is more effective than the radar.
INTRODUCTION
There were 265204 traffic accidents in 2008 on the national road in China,
73484 people were killed and 304919 people were injured, and property loss was
1.01 billion with an average loss of 3808 Yuan per accident.
1/3 of the accidents leading to deaths and serious injury were due to speeding
or improper speed. At the same time, there was a close relationship between the
injury severity and speeding. With the rising rate of traffic accidents across the
country, radar, cameras and other equipment for automatic speed limit has been used
to control speeding and reduce the accident rate.
ENFORCEMENT COST ANALYSIS
Enforcement Cost (referred to as CE) uses the concept of cost in the area of
law enforcement specific to the speed limit on the traffic management department.
The enforcement costs include the consumption of labor and property in the
establishment of speed limit signs, purchase and installation of guns, and the
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implemention of monitoring and punishment. (Zhuo, 2008) (Zheng, 2007).

In this paper, the cost of law enforcement is divided into two parts: labor cost
and equipment cost, as shown in Figure 1. Labor cost refers to the cost of police
labor as used on the highway. Due to the difference in traffic police wages in
different areas and the difficulty this poses to accurate statistical analysis, this paper
mainly considers equipment cost.

Figure 1. Integral parts of enforcement cost.

The most commonly used speed limit equipments include cameras and radar.
So equipment cost can be divided into three parts: camera equipment cost, portable
radar equipment cost, and fixed radar equipment cost. According to the market
surveys conducted the cost of the above three parts are as shown in Table
1(http://www.joteng.com).
Table 1. Cost of enforcement.
No. Equipment Price(Yuan/Set)
1 Camera Equipment 300000
2 Portable Radar Equipment 30000
3 Fixed Radar Equipment 70000
Speed limit enforcement can be divided into automatic speeding enforcement
and artificial speeding enforcement according to the different technology used to
enforce speed limits. Automatic speeding enforcement mainly refers to law
enforcement with a fixed camera or radar or other equipments; artificial speeding
enforcement mainly refers to the police who manually detect the vehicle speed
through a portable radar and other equipment while on the road.
Automatic speeding enforcement cost is mainly the equipment cost, while
the artificial speeding enforcement cost includes both the equipment cost and the
labor cost. To a certain extent, the cost of artificial speeding enforcement would be
more than that of automatic speeding enforcement.

THE SPEED LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF AUTOMATIC

SPEEDING ENFORCEMENT
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Different speed limit enforcement equipments have different effects on speed

control. This paper compares the vehicle speed before, at, and after the equipments,
and analyzes the effects of camera and radar equipments respectively.
The speed data acquisition equipment is MetroCount 5600 Series Vehicle
Classifier Systems. This system can easily get individual vehicles’ information. The
information used in this thesis includes: arrival time, driving direction, location,
speed, headway, classes of the vehicles, and so on. The traffic volume of any time
period can get from the vehicle arrival time and the number of individual vehicle
records.
1. Speed limit effectiveness of the camera equipment
This paper analyzes the speed limit effect of camera according to the
equipments set at the Shaanxi Xihan highway. The exact location of the equipments
is K75+620 section of the highway. Data collected direction is from Hanzhong to
Xi’an. Speed detection points respectively are before, at and after the camera. The
research section is a two-lane road, with a lane width of 3.75m and a shoulder width
of 2.5m. The research date is 2009-4-26 and the time period is 11:00-17:00, and
detail information about the research sections as shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Research sections around the camera.
Vertical Cross Horizontal Posted
Location Section Location
Slope Slope Curve Radius Speed
K75+970 350m before the camera 2.4% 3.4%
K75+620 at the camera 2.7% 3.4% 6300m 80km/h
K75+270 150m after the camera 1.5% 4.5%
z Speed distribution of time
From Figure 2 we can see that the vehicle 85% speed after the camera was
significantly reduced compared with that before the camera, and the vehicle 85%
speed is below the posted speed (80 km/h). Obviously, the camera can reduce the
speed effectively.
The vehicle 85% speed distribution by time Speeding ratio
180 70% 64.09%
160 60%
140
120 50%
speed（km/h）

100 40%
80
30%
60
40 before the camera 20%
at the camera 12.52%
20 after the camera 10%
0 1.25%
0%
12 13 14 15 16
before the camera at the camera after the camera
time（h）

Figure 2. The vehicle 85% speed. Figure 3. Speeding ratiodistribution by time.

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z Speeding
Figure 3 shows the speeding ratio at the camera is 51.57 % lower than that
before the camera. The ratio after the camera is 62.84% lower than that before the
camera. As can be seen from Figure 4, the ratio of speeding vehicles at and after the
camera has a declining trend in both. We can see that the camera not only has a good
effect on speed limits, but also has good speed control continuity.
Cumulative frequence of speeding range
600 100%
90%
500
speeding frequence（car）

80%

cumulative percentage
70%
400
60%
300 50%
40%
200
30%
20%
100
10%
0 0%
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 >80
speeding 超速幅度（公里
frequence / 小时）
before the camera
speeding frequence at the camera
speeding frequence after the camera
speeding cumulative percentage before the camera
speeding cumulative percentage at the camera
speeding cumulative percentage after the camera

Figure 4. Cumulative frequency of speeding range.

z Economic Analysis
According to accident data collected from October 2007 to March 2009, the
total accidents in Xinhan highway is 187, including 85 accidents because of
speeding, accounting for 45.45% of the total accidents, as shown in Figure 5. If the
camera can reduce 51.57% of the speeding vehicles, it could reduce 44 accidents, as
China’s average losses is 3808 Yuan per accident, that is, the camera can reduce
167552 Yuan of economic losses.
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Machanical failure
Reasons of the accident
Don't follow the provisions of traffic
0.53%
2.14% 1.07% 6.42%
2.14%
1.60%
0.53% Improper operation
2.14% 4.81%
Speeding
2.14%
Pedestrian vilation
Driving carelessly
Drunk

27.81% Road slippery

Fatgue driving
Others
Illegal to change lanes
Illegal overtaking
45.45%
0.53% Illegal parking
1.60% Don't keep a safe distance
1.07% Rain and fog

Figure 5. Reason distribution of the accidents in Xihan Highway.

2. Speed limit effectiveness of the fixed radar equipment
The thesis analyzes the speed limit effect of the fixed radar equipment
according to data of Hunan Loudi contact line (road of Grade 1). The section that the
equipment fixed is K4+750, the direction is into Loulian, and there is a central
median on the road. The data collection places are before, at, and after the radar. The
research date is 2008-12-4 and time period is 12:00-17:00. Detailed information of
the research is as shown in Table 3.
Table 3. Research sections around the radar.
Vertical
Location Section Location Posted Speed
Slope
K4+200 200m before the radar 2.4%
K4+750 at the radar 2.7% 80km/h
K4+900 150m after the radar 1.5%
z Speed distribution of time
Figure 6 shows the vehicle 85% speed at the radar is significantly reduced
compared with that before the radar. The vehicle 85% speed is lower than the posted
speed 80 km/h. However, the vehicle 85% speed after the radar are all raised, but
does not exceed that before the radar. Clearly the radar has a certain effect of speed
limit, but the speed limit effect is not as durable as camera.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 439
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The vehicle 85% speed distribution by time Speeding ratio

120 60%
49.60%
100 50%

80
speed（km/h）

40%

60 30%
23.83%
40 20%
before the radar
20 at the radar
10%
after the radar 4.31%
0
0%
12 13 14 15 16 before the radar at the radar after the radar
time（h）

Figure 6. The vehicle 85% speed. Figure 7. Speeding ratio distribution by time.

Speeding z
Figure 7 shows the proportion of speeding vehicles at the radar is 45.29%
lower than that before the radar. The ratio after the radar is 19.52% up compared
with that at the radar, but still 25.77% lower than that before the radar. As can be
seen from Figure 8, there is a downward trend in speeding ratio at and after the radar.
We can see the radar has a very good effect of speed limit, but the continuity of
speed control is not very good.
Cumulative frequence of speeding range
300 100%
90%
250
speeding frequence（car）

80%

cumulative percentage
70%
200
60%
150 50%
40%
100
30%
20%
50
10%
0 0%
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 >80
speeding frequence
超速幅度（公里 / 小时）
before the radar
speeding frequence at the radar
speeding frequence after the radar
speeding cumulative percentage before the radar
speeding cumulative percentage at the radar
speeding cumulative percentage after the radar

Figure 8. Cumulative frequency of speeding range.

z Economic Analysis
According to accident data collected from October 2004 to October 2008, the
total accidents in Loudi contact line is 36, including 4 accidents because of speeding,
accounting for 11.11% of the total accidents, as shown in Figure 9. If the radar can
reduce 45.29% of the speeding vehicles, it could reduce 2 accidents, as China’s
average losses is 3808 Yuan per accident, that is, the camera can reduce 7616 Yuan
of economic losses.
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Reasons of the accident

5.56%
16.67%

Don't follow the provisions of traffic

19.44%
Improper operation

Speeding
Illegal turn
16.67%
2.78% Reverse traffic

Driving without license

Mechanical failure
13.89% Driving carelessly

11.11% Others
2.78%
11.11%

Figure 9. Reason distribution of the accidents in Loudi Contact Line.

3. Summary
According to the analysis above, can summary the rate of changes of speed
compared to those before the equipments as shown in Table 4:
Table 4. Speed limit results of camera and radar (unit: %).
Equipment Camera Radar
Position at after at after
85% speed -47.78 -55.91 -33.18 -15.11
Speeding Ratio -51.57 -62.84 -45.29 -25.77
It can be seen that the speed limit effect of the camera is significantly larger
than the radar, and the camera’s effect of speed limit lasts longer than the radar. The
installation of a camera reduceing losses caused by speeding accidents is higher than
the installation of a radar. It can thus be seen that camera is much more effective
than the radar.

THE SPEED LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF ARTIFICIAL

SPEEDING ENFORCEMENT
As the data without automatic law enforcement equipment in the same road
could not be procured, this paper uses a similar road’s data as a comparison, as
shown in Table 5.
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Table 5. Ratio of speeding accidents under different road condition.

Car Truck
Hour
Road Speeding Posted Posted
Road Name Accidents Traffic
Grade Accidents Speed Speed
Volume
(km/h) (km/h)
Shannxi
Highway 187 85 80 60 634
Xihan
Yunnan
Highway 196 14 80 60 53
Luofu
Hunan
Road of
Loudi 36 4 80 80 190
Grade 1
contact line
Xinjiang Road of
346 212 100 80 61
Lianhuo Grade 1

Yunnan Luofu highway has the same posted speed for car and for truck with
Shannxi Xihan highway, and they are both mountainous highways. There are
cameras on the Xihan highway for automatic speeding enforcement, while the Luofu
highway is not equipped with any automatic equipment, All the accidents data of
Luofu highway were got through artificially. It can be seen that there is a rate of
0.295 accidents for every 100 vehicles in Xihan highway, of which 0.134 times for
speeding accidents; while Luofu highway has 3.698 accidents for every 100 vehicles,
of which 0.264 times for speeding accidents. As can be seen, the enforcement
equipments in Xihan highway reduced the ratio of speeding accidents to a large
extent, and the decrease in the number of accidents is particularly effective.
Xinjiang Lianhuo road has the same truck posted speed as Hunan Loudi
contact line, and they are both Grade 1 roads. There are radars on the Loudi contact
line for automatic speeding enforcement, while there are none on the Lianhuo road.
All the accidents data of Lianhuo road were got through artificially. It can be seen
that there is 0.189 accidents for every 100 vehicles in the Loudi contact line, of
which 0.021 times for speeding accidents; while Lianhuo road has 5.672 accidents
for every 100 vehicles, of which 3.475 times for speeding accidents. As can be seen
the enforcement equipments in Xihan highway reduced the ratio of speeding
accidents to a large extent, and the decrease in the number of accidents is
particularly effective.

CONCLUSIONS
According to the paper it can be proved that automatic speeding enforcement
of speed limit is much more obvious than the effect of artificial speeding
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enforcement. After a certain investment in equipment cost, automatic speeding

enforcement can save a lot of labor cost, and at the same time lower the number of
accidents caused by speeding. So speed limit research should give priority to
automatic speeding enforcement.
The camera has better effects in speed limit than the radar, and has the
advantages of durability in speed control. However, the camera equipment cost more
than the radar, the choice of non-scene law enforcement equipment should make a
comprehensive decision depending on the speeding accident’s ratio and the traffic
volume.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Thanks to all the teachers and students of the Safety Group of Transportation
Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, for aiding in data collection and
processing of this paper.

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industry, 2003.
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Research on Allocation of the Driver's Attention on the Tunnel Sections of a

Mountain Freeway

Cao HE1and Bin CHEN 1 and Jinbao WANG 1 and Yanni SHI 2

1
Si Chuan Communication Vocational Technology College Sichuan, College Key
Laboratory of Road Traffic Safety, Wenjiang District, Liu Tai Road, No. 208
Chengdu, Cichuan, 611130; PH (028) 82334069; FAX (028) 82680843; email:
hcsiu_999@163.com
2
Automobile Institute of Chang’an University, P.O. Box 567, Xi’an, Shanxi, 710064;
PH (029) 82334069; FAX (029) 82334069; email: shiyannishiyanni@163.com

ABSTRACT
The research used Eye Link II system to obtain the driver's eye movement
data on the tunnel sections (the non-tunnel section, the short tunnel section, the group
tunnels section, and the super long tunnel section) of a mountain freeway. Allocation
of drivers' attention is divided into five parts (instrument panel, the right signs and
right mirror, left lane, right lane, and left mirror). Analysis and comparison of the
four kinds of sections on the driver's attention to the allocation of access to outside
information on the differences in the five parts, came to the conclusions: (1) The
percentage of fixation count and the percentage of average fixation duration of the
driver’s attention to the instrument panel in the short tunnel section, the tunnel group
section and super long tunnel section are more than the non-tunnel section; (2) The
percentage of fixation count and the percentage of average fixation duration of the
driver attention to the right signs and right mirror in the short tunnel section, the
tunnel group section and long tunnel section are lower than the non-tunnel section.
From the conclusions about driver's visual characteristics, some improvement
measures for the traffic environment in the tunnel sections have been proposed.

INTRODUCTION
With high-grade freeways extended to the western region, there have been an
increasing number of tunnels, and some of these formed tunnel groups (Zhong-ye
ZHOU et al., 2008). If the traffic environment of a tunnel section frequently changes
in a short time, it has a great impact on drivers, either psychologically or
physiologically and it can become a security risk. Research on the allocation of
drivers' attention in tunnel sections will allow the driver to get comprehensive and
accurate traffic information of tunnel sections and enhance operational safety of the
tunnel sections.
This paper used the Eye Link II system to obtain the driver's eye movement
data on tunnel sections (the non-tunnel section, the short tunnel section, the group of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 445
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the tunnels section, and the long tunnel section) of a mountain freeway. Also, it
analyzed the allocation of drivers' attention in the tunnel sections and proposed
measures to improve the traffic environment of the tunnel sections.
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
Experimental Objective: Choose 5 male drivers and 3 female drivers of
different ages.With different driving ages as the experimental objective, and
considering the high rates of the accidents on the test road, we didn’t choose a new
driver who lacked driving experience. The drivers’ information is shown in Table 1.
Before the test, we must make sure the drivers have enough sleep and normal
vision (or corrected visual acuity).
Experimental Equipments: (1) Experimental car: FORD TRANSIT; (2) The
eye movement data is measured by the Eye Link II head-mounted eye movement
measurement system. The subjects were free to turn their heads and the error of
average fixation point is <0.5°. In the pupil and corneal reflection tracking mode,
the sampling frequency was 250 Hz. The system can record the test scenes and store
them to the hard drive in the form of video using a camera system. It also shows
the drivers' fixation location and fixation duration which can be seen during
playback of the video data.

Table 1. The information of drivers.

Driver No. 1(M) 2(M) 3(M) 4(M) 5(M) 6(F) 7(F) 8(F)
Age 25 26 37 39 56 38 39 52
Driving age 3 6 10 22 32 10 7 15
Vision 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.2
Experimental Routes: The tunnel sections were chosen from ZhiFang
Tunnel (K44+397) and Qinling Tunnel No.1 (K64+827), the upstream and
downstreat experimental routes, respectively. The speed limit of the upstream route
is 80km/h and the speed limit of the downstream route is 60km/h. There are 22
tunnels in the route (Figure 1), which was divided into four parts: the non-tunnel
section, the short tunnel section, the group of tunnels section (Shaanxi Provincial
Highway Survey and Design Institute. 2007) and the super long tunnel section.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 446
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Figure 1. Test Route.

Table 2. Test Sections Information.

Number of Length(m)
Sections Tunnels
the non-tunnel section(K54+970~K58+340) 0 3370
the short tunnel section(K48+075~K48+250) 1 175
the tunnel group section(K49+251~K54+970) 14 5719
the super long tunnel section (K58+340~K64+827) 1 6102
Experimental Procedures: It is necessary to explain the purpose and steps of
the test to the drivers before the first test begins and tell them drive a certain
distance in order to adapt to the traffic conditions. After reaching the origin of the
test route, the drivers put on a helmet-type eye movement system and set up the
9-point procedures for the calibration and accuracy of recognition. Once the
calibration and accuracy of recognition reached the “Good” class the road driving
test would start and continue until the entire driver's test data had been collected
completely.
EXPERIMENTAL DATA ANALYSIS
We can get the pitches of the classes from 2 to 30 categories by the rapid
clustering method which clusters each driver's fixation point in the horizon plane
analytic coordinates. Based on the data for the class pitches, we can chart the
aggregate data with the Number of Classifications per Class Pitch for each driver
(Figure 2).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 447
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Figure 2. Aggregate Data for Number of Classifications and Class Pitch.

As the class agglomerate steady, the Number of Classifications decline and
the Class Pitches increase. The Class Pitches increased when the number of class is
more than five. We believe that it is most appropriate to cluster the five classes by
finding the curve inflection point and the Class Pitches have a strong similarity.
In order to clarify which of the five parts belong to which road areas in the
actual traffic environment, we overlaid the centers of these five classes with the
space view.The Data Viewer software was uses to get the overlay view, as shown in
Figure 3.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 448
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Figure 3. The Overlay View.

The location of the five focal points were used to determine the allocation of
drivers’ attention to the five parts and they are as follows: the instrument panel, right
signs and right mirrors, left lane, right lane and left mirrors. Then the allocations of
the five centers of drivers’ attention were respectively recorded and all fixation
points were clustered bythese centers into the four sections. The allocation of drivers’
attention can be characterized into the three indicators: percentage of fixation count,
percentage of fixation duration and the average fixation duration (Zhong-qi LIU, et
al.2006).
The Percentage of Fixation Count: The percentage of fixation count is the
ratio of fixation duration in each attention distribution area to the total number. The
percentage of fixation duration in each different information source represents the
importance of information source. Each driver has a percentage of fixation duration
in the upstream and downstream for the four different road sections and from those
you can getthe average of the percentage of fixation duration on these roads. The
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 449
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average of the eight drivers’ data is the percentage of fixation duration for the
different roads (Figure 4).

The percentage of fixation count

instrument panel
5 0%

4 5%
right signs and
4 0%
right mirror
3 5%

3 0% left lane
2 5%

2 0%

1 5% right lane
1 0%

5%

0%
left mirror
th e no n -t un ne l se ct io n t he s ho r t tu nn el s ec t io n t he t u nn el g ro up s e ct io n th e s up er l on g tu nn e l se ct io n

Figure 4. The Percentage of Fixation Count for the Allocation of Drivers’

Attention on Different Road Sections and Different Regions.

As can be seen from the figure the distribution of drivers' fixation duration
has different concentration distribution areas in the four differentsections. By the
significance test of percentage of fixation duration in the four types of roads and five
allocation centers of the driver's attention, the conclusion is that the driver obtains the
most information from the left lane and right lane, and the attention focuses on the
left lane and right lane. The percentage of driver's attention to the dashboard in the
short tunnel, the group of tunnels and the super long tunnel is more than in the
non-tunnel section, and the attention to the logo on the right and the right mirror is
reduced. In other words, the information that the drivers get from the dashboard is
more than that from the logo and mirror in the short tunnel, the group of tunnels
and the super long tunnel.
The Percentage of Fixation Duration: Generally speaking, fixation is a
process in which the driversput their attention on to something and gain traffic
information. We can obtain how much drivers’ attention has been distributed in the
different message sources. Average the percentage of fixation duration in the
upstream and downstream of four sections, and then average the data of eight drivers
to gain the percentage of fixation duration for the different allocations of the drivers'
attention on the four sections, as shown in Figure 5.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 450
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The percentage of fixation duration

instrument panel
50.000%
45.000%
40.000% right signs and right
35.000% mirror
30.000% left lane
25.000%
20.000%
15.000% right lane
10.000%
5.000%
0.000% left mirror
the non-tunnel the short tunnel the tunnel group the super long
section section section tunnel section

Figure 5. The Percentage of Fixation Duration for the Different Allocations of

Drivers' Attention on the Four Sections.

Compared to the percentage of fixation duration, there are different

distributions of the allocations of drivers' attention on the four sections. However,
no matter what type of road, the percentage of fixation duration is higher in the left
lane and right lane than other regions.
The significant test shows that for the percentage of fixation duration in the
five regions on the four kinds of road sections that: the drivers mainly gain traffic
information from the left lane and right lane. In other words, most of the attention of
the drivers is assigned to the left and right lane regions. The percentage of fixation
duration on the instrument panel in the short tunnel section and the tunnel group
section and the super long tunnel section is more than in the non-tunnel section.
However, the percentage of fixation duration on the right signs and right mirrors are
less than in the non-tunnel section. In other words, the drivers gain the traffic
information from the instrument panel more than from the right signs and right
mirrors.
The average time of fixation duration: The average of fixation duration
refers to the total fixation duration of the various sections and all the fixation counts
to the ratio of points. Longer fixation duration means two possibilities: first, it’s
necessary to consider the cognitive effort because the information is difficult to
extract; second, it’s necessary for more time to read because it is information-rich.
Longer fixation duration will result in an increase in cognitive load on the drivers, so
we can know the amount of the cognitive load from the length of fixation duration.
If youverage the average of fixation duration in the upstream and downstream
of the four sections, and then average the data of eight drivers, you can gain the
average of fixation duration for the different allocations of drivers' attention on the
four sections, as shown in Figure 6.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 451
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The average of fixation duration

instrument panel
300

250 right signs and right

mirror
200
left lane
150
100 right lane
50
0 left mirror
the non-tunnel the short tunnel the tunnel group the super long
section section section tunnel section

Figure 6. The Average of Fixation Duration for the Different Allocations of

Drivers' Attention on the Four Sections.

As can be seen from the figure, the distributed rule of fixation duration
percentage is different on the four sections of drivers' attention. By the significance
test on the five fixation center durations distributed rule over the four sections, we
can find that it has a remarkable difference.
To sum up, the average of the fixation counts in the short tunnel section was
higher than in the group of tunnels section; while the percentage of fixation duration
and the average of fixation duration were lower in the short tunnel than in the group
of tunnels section. The reason may be that the visual load in the tunnel group section
is bigger than in the short tunnel section when the drivers frequently pass in and out
the tunnels and where the light and dark alternately change, while at the same time，
the apparent distance is limited. The longer the amount of time the drivers gain
traffic information is, the less the fixation count is.
The average of fixation count in the super long tunnel section is lower than in
the short tunnel section, while the percentage of fixation duration and the average of
fixation duration in the super long tunnel section are higher than in the short tunnel
section. The visual load in the super long tunnel section is bigger than in the short
tunnel section mainly because the useful information is hard to discern and identify
when the drivers are driving in the super long tunnel section where illumination is
very low.
CONCLUSION
In the short tunnel, group of tunnels and the super long tunnel, the percentage
of fixation duration is more than in the non-tunnel section; the percentage of drivers'
attention to the dashboard is more than in the non-tunnel section; and the attention to
the logo in the right and right mirror is reduced. In the short tunnel and the group of
tunnels, drivers can’t estimate the speed of the vehicle so they must get the speed by
dashboard when vehicle goes through the narrow space fast. In the short tunnel, the
group of tunnels and the super long tunnel, information from right lane is less than in
the non-tunnel section. Change of light and path line obviously impact drivers
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 452
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psychologically when in and out of tunnels, which makes the drivers focus on ahead,
but on left and right lane. In the super long tunnel, the drivers lack the skills for
estimation and judgments on speed, so drivers determine the current vehicle speed
through the dashboard in order to make sure of safe driving.
It is suggested that the important transportation information symbols in the
tunnel are established above the lane, and the general information is established on
the right of tunnel, so as to cater to the drivers’ habits of focusing ahead in the tunnel
section.
REFERENCES
Zhong-ye ZHOU, Zhi-gao LIAO, Ben-min LIU, Zhong-yin GUO. (2008). “Analysis
of Traffic Property and Safety in Freeway Tunnel Group.” Computer and
Communications,Vol.26, No.1, 27-30.
Shaanxi Provincial Highway Survey and Design Institute. (2007).National Trunk
(GZ40) Eleanor ~ estuarine habitat in Shaanxi floods Huxian Meiyukou ~
Yangxian tree clearance above the highway construction design .Xi’an
Zhong-qi LIU，Xiu-gan YUAN，Wei LIU. (2006). “Pilot Attention Distribution of
Quantitative Measurement Methods.” Journal of Beijing University of
Aeronautics and Astronautics,Vol.32, No.5, 518-521.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 453
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Research on Desired Speed under Speed Limit on Ordinary Highway

Xuan DU1, Jian LU2, Dandan TAN3,and Gang WU4

1
Transportation College, Southeast University, # 2, Sipailou, Nanjing, Jiangsu,
210096 P. R. China; PH(86) 13921440285; Email: duxuan.seu@gmail.com
2
Transportation College, Southeast University, # 2, Sipailou, Nanjing, Jiangsu,
210096 P. R. China; PH(86)13601461870; FAX(86)25-83794102;
Email: lujian_1972@seu.edu.cn
3
Jiangsu Transportation Research Institute CO.,LTD, #223,Shuiximenroad,Nanjing,
Jiangsu, 210000 P.R.China; PH(86)13951786262; Email: yukifuna@163.com
4
Transportation College, Southeast University, # 2, Sipailou, Nanjing, Jiangsu,
210096 P. R. China; PH(86) 15950505819; Email: seu211@126.com

ABSTRACT
This paper analyzes the characteristics and patterns of the distributions of the
desired speeds by collecting data of the vehicles and the drivers from 3 roads. It is
pointed out that the desired speeds were influenced in different degrees by the speed
limit, the age of the drivers, the performance of the vehicle, the characteristics of
traffic flow, and the weather. The results indicate that the desired speed was based
mainly on the speed limit, however, in the case of good road conditions with low
speed limits; drivers still tend to drive with higher speed. With the decline in the
speed limit, the impact of vehicle performance becomes smaller, while the driver's
individual psychological condition and technological skills will give a greater
impact on choosing driving speed. Meanwhile, based on the correlation between the
speed limit and the desired speed, the step-wise regression model is developed.

INTRODUCTION
Desired speed refers to the highest safe speed which drivers hope to achieve
on the condition that the vehicle is out of the restrictions of other vehicles. Desired
speed is a target speed held by drivers after considering the road conditions, the
characteristics of traffic flow, and the performance of the vehicle. However, the
choice of such target speed is not totally irregular. In terms of relatively effective
factors, we discuss it in four parts: people, vehicle, road, and environment.
People. Drivers can be divided into different groups based on their
individual personalities, the level of technological skills, gender, and age. Different
individual drivers in the same group hold different desired speeds.
Vehicle. Generally, drivers will hold relatively high speeds while the
vehicle performs well. The desired speed will also be raised after the vehicle’s
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 454
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condition is improved.
Road. Road grade and traffic conditions are one of the most important
factors which influence desired speed. Under a higher road grade and better traffic
conditions, most drivers will decide the higher desired speed, and vice versa.
Environment. Weather also has obvious impacts on desired speed. Sunny
days will make the driver relax to improve the desired speed. On the other hand,
extreme weather such as fog and rain will lower the level of desired speed.
Researches related to this are mostly based on drivers’ behavior
characteristics, and establish mathematic models to explain the behavior of different
drivers choosing speeds. Researchers obtain desired speeds by stopping cars and
filling out questionnaires. The research of choosing patterns of desired speed
analysis starts early abroad. The correlation coefficient of individual driver’s driving
speeds are 0.26 and 0.75 respectively, based on repeated testing by Wasielewsk and
Haglund(1984 and 2000). This coefficient indicates that the factors of the concerned
drivers choosing speeds are relative and consistent. Vogal and others found that the
correlation coefficient of the drivers’ self-voice reports and the practical driving
behavior is between 0.12~0.52(1991). Aberg and others found it to be 0.36 on a road
with a 50km/h speed limit, based on the experiments performed in Denmark and
Sweden. The drivers’ operating behavior were also influenced other drivers’ speed
choices (1997). In conclusion, drivers’ speed adjustments are affected not only by
regarding the signs of speed limits, they are also affected by the surrounding speed
which is also plays an important role. Through research statistics, we can see that
about 50% of vehicles’ driving speeds are above the speed limit. The research results
of Aberg and others also showed that the major reason 40% of Denmark drivers and
68% of Swedish drivers are reporting to choose a speed on the road, is that they
hope to follow the speed limit. Aberg’s experiment showed many influential factors
of drivers choosing speeds: the discipline of drivers, the calculated relativity of
practical speeds, and other drivers’ estimated speeds. The attitude towards speed
limits of the drivers affects their characteristics of driving; there is a specific
relationship between driving speed and the limit speed.
Drivers’ desired speeds vary, which is one of the most important reasons of
the speed differences. The desired speed has an impact not only towards the capacity
of road and traffic safety, but also has great meaning to the research of setting road
speed limits. Although people have already realized that desired speed is a major
parameter of the theory of speed controlling; present researches are mostly based on
analyzing the reasons and influence factors of drivers’ speed choice. However, there
is a lack of specific and systematic research on characteristics and influence factors
of desired speeds under different speed-limit conditions.
This paper analyzes the inner relations between desired speed and speed
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 455
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limit by looking into the characteristics and disciplining of desired speeds of

different motorcycle types under different speed-limit conditions. This paper will
also observe the affection towards desired speed from both subjective factors such as
speed limits and motorcycle types, and objective conditions such as characteristics
of drivers.
METHOD
By filling out questionnaires, this paper investigates drivers on several roads
on which the speed limits are 40km/h, 60km/h, and 80km/h, respectively. The major
content in the research include drivers’ personal characteristic information and
desired speed statistics. Based on massive practical investigations, we analyze the
data, study the characteristics of distribution of desired speed under different speed
limits, integrate the analysis, and finally analyze the influence factors.
The data includes: (1) personal details of the drivers, performance of the
vehicles, and the desired speed and normal speed of the drivers under the speed limit.
These data are used under different speed limits to analyze the characteristics of
distributions of desired speeds, the relationships among desired speeds, the normal
speed and speed limits, and the affections towards desired speed from each factor. (2)
Personal details of the drivers, performance of the vehicles, and the desired speed
and corresponding traffic flow statistics. These data are basically used to analyze the
influence factor towards desired speed under the speed limit, and the affection from
traffic flow characteristics.
Road
According to different speed limits and traffic conditions, we chose 3
different roads in Nanjing urban and suburban area.
1) Road Ning-Zhen(G312), east area of circuitous road, 80km/h, bidirectional 6
driveway, green splitter, traffic flow composed of motor vehicles and
motorcycles, a few bicycles and foot passengers, and fine road conditions.
2) Road Ning-Wu(G205), area of Xishan Bridge, 60km/h, bidirectional 4 driveway,
double yellow lines for dividing each orientation, clear markers for each
driveway, traffic flow composed of motor vehicles, motorcycles and bicycles, a
few foot passengers, and some interruptions between each traffic manner.
3) Road Ning-Hang(G104), area of Wanjia Building, 40km/h, bidirectional 2
driveway, white real line for dividing each orientation, unclear damaged
markers, traffic flow composed of motor vehicles, motorcycles and bicycles
and foot passengers, and serious interruptions between each traffic manner.
Interviews and questionnaire
The interview questions included 5 aspects:
1) Drivers’ personal details, mostly including the age, gender and driving age ;
2) Vehicles information and motorcycle type (large, medium or small; car or truck);
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 456
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3) Desired speed, normal speed, and speed in rainy or foggy areas;

4) Driver’s attitude towards 10% over-speed;
5) Factors affecting desired speed.
Sample
1) questionnaires of desired speed under three speed limits
Investigations were held in May 2008 with fine weather and clear vision.
There were 435 effective questionnaires returned. There were 409 male drivers,
which occupied 94% of the total, while the remaining 26 drivers were female, and
occupied 6%. The age of the drivers were among 20-60, among whom 64 were
young drivers under their thirties, accounted for 14.7%. There were 339 drivers
between the ages of 31-50, which accounted for 77.9%. The remaining 32 were
elderly drivers above the age of 51, which accounted for 7.4%. The types of vehicle
models were large, medium, and small. They were 129, 55, and 251, respectively.
They occupied 29.7%, 12.6%, 57.7%. Passenger car drivers and truck drivers were
332 and 103 respectively, and accounted for 76.3% and 23.7% of the total.
2) questionnaires of desired speed under 80km/h and traffic flow investigation
Investigations were held on May 6th and 7thof 2008, between 12：00 and
17 ： 00, 5 hours each day, including the PM peak and normal time. The
investigation got a total of 872 pairs of statistics including driving speed, length of
car and car model, and 233 effective questionnaires.
RESULTS
Attitudes Towards the Speed Limit
Questionnaires of these three kinds of speed limits were posted to 435
randomly selected car drivers. 135 car drivers (31% of the total) consider it
reasonable to exceed the limit by 10%, 140 of the total disapproved of exceeding the
limit. 37% of the drivers paid no concern to this issue.
Of all the male drivers, 32% considered over-speed reasonable, with the
same number agreeing to the contrary; while the remaining 36% paid no concern.
For the female drivers, only 11% considered over-speed reasonable, but 35%
remained on the opposite, and the remaining 54% paid no concern. The data of the
different groups were omitted. Figures 1, 2, and 3, show the attitude of drivers in
different genders, ages, and motorcycle types towards over-speed.
Distribution of desired speed
Under the speed limit of 80km/h, the desired speed of drivers follows a
normal form. The distribution range is 50-180km/h, a Mean of 81.25km/h, and a
Standard deviation 14.78km/h. Under the speed limit of 60km/h, the desired speed
of drivers follows a normal form. The distribution range is 30-140km/h, a Mean
63.31km/h, and a Standard deviation 14.00km/h. Under the speed limit of 40km/h,
the desired speed of drivers follows a normal form. The distribution range is 50-
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 457
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180km/h, a Mean 81.25km/h, and a Standard deviation of 14.78km/h. Figures 4, 5,

and 6 shows the distribution of drivers' desired speed under 80km/h, 60km/h and
40km/h. Figure 7 shows the cumulative frequency diagram of desired speed under
three speed limits.

Agree No Concern Disagree

45% Agree No Concern Disagree
54%
38%
35%
34%
32% 31%
36% 35% 28% 28%
32% 32% 23%

11%

Young Middle-aged Elderly

Male Female

Figure 1. Attitude of drivers in Figure 2. Attitude of drivers in

different gender towards over-speed. different ages towards over-speed.
Agree No Concern Disagree 49% Agree No Concern Disagree
37% 37%
34% 34%
29% 38% 37% 37%
29% 34%
29% 29%
25%
22%

Car Drivers Truck Drivers

Large-scale drivers Medium-scale drivers Small-scale drivers

Figure 3. Attitude of drivers in different motorcycle types towards over-speed.

32.64%
35.02%
26.44%

21.66%
17.01% 15.40%
17.05%
11.75%
10.60%

3.46% 3.68% 4.37%

0.46% 0.46%
0-55 55-65 65-75 75-85 85-95 95-105 105- 0-35 35-45 45-55 55-65 65-75 75-85 85-

Figure 4. Distribution of drivers' Figure 5. Distribution of drivers'

desired speed of 80km/h. desired speed of 60km/h.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 458
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80km/h 60km/h 40km/h 100%

36.18% 100% 100% 100%
95.63% 96.54%
90% 91.25%
84.79%
80% 80.23%
76.27%
70% 67.74%
21.20% 60% 63.22%
58.76%
17.51% 50%
14.98%
40%
30.58% 32.72%
8.75% 30%
20% 22.58%

0.23% 1.15% 10% 11.06%

0.23% 1.38% 4.14%
0% 0.46% 0.46%
0-15 15-25 25-35 35-45 45-55 55-65 65- 0-15 15-25 25-35 35-45 45-55 55-65 65-75 75-85 85-95 95-105 105-

Figure 6. Distribution of drivers' Figure 7. Cumulative frequency

desired speed of 40km/h. diagram of desired speed.
Desired, normal speed and speed limit
Desired speed is the highest safe speed that a driver can choose in
consideration of variable influences. Those influences are: speed limit, the age of
the drivers, the performance of the vehicle, the characteristics of traffic flow, and the
weather.
Normal speed is the speed a driver always chooses around. Normal speed
can also reveal the tendency of speed choice
Speed limit is used to restrict the highest and lowest traveling speed by
calculating the influence of factors like safety and traveling.
Table 1 illuminates the distribution of drivers' desired speed and normal
speed according to the analysis of the data.
Table 1. Distribution of drivers' desired speed and normal speed under
different speed limits.
Speed Desired speed(km/h) Normal speed(km/h)
limit Distributio Std.Devi Distributio Std.Devia
Mean Mean
(km/h) n range ation n range tion
80 50-180 81.25 14.78 40-120 75.22 11.56
60 30-140 63.31 14.00 30-120 57.21 10.87
40 10-120 46.52 15.52 10-90 40.82 10.54
Analyses of factors impacting desired speed
Based on driver's inquiry, they perceived the factors that affect their speed
choice from high to low to be: road traffic volume, weather conditions, speed limit,
vehicle performance, road alignment, and other driver's speed. As Figure 8 shows, in
a total of 435 drivers, 91% indicated that they choose the speed concerning traffic
volume and weather, 72% indicated that the impact of standards by the road speed
limit is important, 70% of the pilots indicated that they consider vehicle
performance,61% indicated they are influenced by road alignment, whilst only 39%
of drivers felt that other drivers' speed influenced their speed choice.
The results of the correlation analyses between desired speed and the factors
under 80km/h are shown in Table 2. The concomitant probability between types and
the car/truck and desired speed are both less than 0.01. This indicates that these two
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 459
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variables are significantly correlated with the desired speed. The concomitant
probability between age, driving experience, and the desired speed is calculated
between 0.01 and 0.05.
100%
90%
80%
70% without influence
60%
50%
40% with influence
30%
20%
10%
0%
Performance of Speed Limit Road Geometric Volume Speed of Other Weather
Vehicle Characteristic Vehicle Condition

Figure 8. Distribution of factors influencing drivers' speed choice

These two variables have a certain correlation with the desired speed. The
concomitant probability between driver gender and desired speed is 0.456, which is
greater than 0.05, and thus not significant.
Table 2. Correlation coefficient between desired speed and the factors under
limit speed of 80km/h(N=435).
motorcy car/t Gen Drive Normal Rainy
Age
cle type ruck der age speed speed
Desire Correlation -.300 -.280 -.121 .036 -.103 .731 .474
d speed Sig. .000 .000 .011 .456 .031 .000 .000
Norma Correlation -.120 -.363 .022 -.072 .098 — —
l speed Sig. .012 .000 .641 .136 .040 — —
Rainy Correlation -.163 -.177 -.022 -.011 -.030 — —
speed Sig. .001 .000 .641 .814 .528 — —
The results of the correlation analyses between desired speed and the factors
under 60km/h are shown in Table 3. The concomitant probability between type,
driving experience, and desired speed are both less than 0.01, indicating these two
variables are significantly correlated with the desired speed. The concomitant
probability between age and the desired speed is calculated to be between 0.01 and
0.05, so this variable has a certain correlation with the desired speed. The
concomitant probability between driver gender, car/truck, and desired speed are
0.075 and 0.226, respectively. These values are greater than 0.05, which is not
significant.
Table 3. Correlation coefficient between desired speed and the factors under
limit speed of 60km/h(N=435).
motorcy car/t Gend Drive Normal Rainy
Age
cle type ruck er age speed speed
Desire Correlation -.263 -.085 -.119 .058 -.163 .699 .433
d peed Sig. .000 .075 .013 .226 .001 .000 .000
Norma Correlation -.173 -.138 -.019 .004 -.024 — —
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l speed Sig. .000 .004 .699 .938 .623 — —

Rainy Correlation -.126 -.019 .008 -.001 -.030 — —
speed Sig. .009 .690 .865 .987 .532 — —
The results of the correlation analyses between desired speed and the factors
under 40km/h are shown in Table 4. The concomitant probability between type,
driving experience, driver age, and desired speed are both less than 0.01, indicating
these three variables are significantly correlated with the desired speed. The
concomitant probability between car/truck, driver gender, and the desired speed are
calculated to be 0.154 and 0.470, respectively. These results were greater than 0.05,
which is not significant.
Table 4. Correlation coefficient between desired speed and the factors under
limit speed of 40km/h(N=435).
motorcy car/t Gen Drive Normal Rainy
Age
cle type ruck der age speed speed
Desire Correlation -.277 -.068 -.156 .035 -.181 .639 .456
d speed Sig. .000 .154 .001 .470 .000 .000 .000
Norma Correlation -.218 -.146 -.014 .004 -.041 — —
l speed Sig. .000 .002 .778 .935 .399 — —
Rainy Correlation -.214 -.029 .010 .082 -.052 — —
speed Sig. .000 .547 .828 .087 .278 — —
We can see that the factors influence the desired speed differently. This is
Summarized in Table 5.
Table 5. factors of desired speed under three limit speed(N=435).
Speed Less notable Non-notable
notable factors
limit factors factors
motorcycle type, car/truck
80km/h Age, Drive age gender
Weather Condition
Motorcycle type, Drive age, car/truck,
60km/h Age
Weather Condition Gender
motorcycle type, car/truck, car/truck,
40km/h —
Age, Weather Condition Gender
MODEL DEVELOPMENT
The results of the correlation analyses between desired speed and the factors
under the speed limit 80km/h are shown in Table 6. The concomitant probability
between type, volume, rainy speed, and desired speed are less than 0.01, which
indicates that these three variables are significantly correlated with the desired speed.
The concomitant probability between driver age and the desired speed are
calculated to be between 0.01 and 0.05, so that these two variables have a certain
correlation with the desired speed as well. The concomitant probability between
driver gender and desired speed is 0.111. This is greater than 0.05, the correlation is
not significant.
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Table 6. Correlation coefficient between desired speed and the factors under
limit speed of 80km/h(N=233).
motorcycle Rainy
Desired speed Age Sex Drive age Volume
type speed
Correlation -.186 -.059 .105 -.031 -.373 -.568
Sig. .000 .027 .111 .370 .000 .000
According to the analyses, we determine variables with significant
correlation through checking the factors of correlation with the desired speed, and
constructing the variables of driver's including ：1. type S, 2. age A 3. drive age
DA, 4. rainy speed Vrainy , 5. standard speed limit Vlimit , 6. volume Q.

Establishment of the desired speed model depends on the main factor as the
independent variable. The previous analysis indicated that driver's desired speed
choice are mainly based on the speed limit, so establishing a desired speed model
concerning the speed limit is the development. Define f desired as the ratio of desired

speed to limit speed: f desired = Vdesired / Vlimited (1)

f desired mainly reveals the relation between desired speed and limit speed. In

the same road, that is, under the same speed limit, f desired comes from the multiple

interactions of over-speed, driver age , drive age, weather, and road volume, which
form different desired speeds of various drivers. Mathematically, when f desired > 1 ,

the desired speed is higher than the limit speed. When f desired £ 1 , the desired speed

is lower than or equal to the limit speed. Establish the model concerning f desired and

main factors. The basic mathematical form of the model is as follows:

f desired = a1 * f ( S ) + a2 * f ( A) + a3 * f ( DA) + a4 * f (rainy) + a5 * f (Q) (2)

On the basis of a total of 233 real-time and field observation data, the
regression model is established through testing various forms and combinations of
variables. The coefficients of variables and T values in the model are shown in Table
7. Coefficient significance level is 95%. The R2 of the model is 0.816, with a high fit.
Specific model is as follows.
f desired = - 0.016S +0.012DA / A+0.527f rainy - 0.008Q +1.039 (3)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 462
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f rainy = Vrainy / Vlimit (4)

Vdesired = Vlimit *(-0.016S +0.012DA / A - 0.008Q+1.039 ) +0.527V (5)

S-type, large-scale values 1, medium-scale values 2, small-scale values 3,

large-scale truck values 4, medium-scale truck values 5, small-scale truck values 6;
A- age of driver (year old ); DA-drive age of driver(year);
Q-volume （ten thousand vehicles 5min）;
Vrainy ——rainy speed （km/h）; Vlimit ——standard speed limit （80km/h）

The establishment of this model is based on observation data in the speed

limit of 80km/h and the regression of 233 sets of data. According to this model, and
by investigation and analysis of age and driving experience, type, traffic flow, and
rainy speed of drivers traveling in the 80km/h speed limit section of road, we get a
specific value and its distribution of the driver desired speed.
Table 7. Coefficient of model.
Model Coeffi-
T Sig
Variables cient
S -.016 -1.163 0.011
DA/A -.012 -0.230 0.118
f rainy .527 1.769 0.000
Q -.008 -1.627 0.000
Constant 1.039 1.431 0.000

Figure 9. Sample line art illustration.

DISCUSSION
The investigation was based on the previous survey, which recorded the
speed which drivers reported. This was the most direct way to obtain desired speed.
Although the survey had encountered some difficulties, we still got sufficient
analytical data, which supported the research and satisfied the multiple regressions of
the sample size demand.
As can be seen from the attitude of different drivers, most drivers hold strong
consciousness to follow the traffic rules now, and they are concern about traffic
safety very much. Comparing to male drivers, the proportion of approving over-
speed from female drivers is very low, which is mostly because female drivers have
less-risky personalities and are more conscious about driving. Comparing to middle-
aged and elderly drivers, young drivers hold against over-speed and tend to drive
above speed limit, they don’t truly understand the danger of over-speeding. Since
the growing of age and driving psychology, middle-aged and elderly drivers tend to
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drive within the speed limit. Truck drivers have more possibilities to over-speed
than passenger car drivers, since goods transportation is usually more urgent. Small
car drivers have the highest proportion against over-speed, while on the opposite,
large car drivers approve the most. This situation comes from the reason that mostly
large vehicles transport passengers and goods. They drive faster and better,
considering economic efficiency and urgency of work.
After analyzing the characteristics and distributions of desired speed under
different speed limits, we can see that the average level of desired speed is higher
than the speed limits under 80km/h, 60km/h, and 40km/h. The proportion of drivers,
whose desired speed are lower than the speed limit, is 67.74%, 63.22%, and 58.76%,
respectively. Over 50% of drivers decide the highest safe speed per hour according
to the speed limit of the road. When road conditions are bad, or the speed limit is
low, the drivers still hope to drive in higher speed. In the mean time, the average
level of desired speed is always higher than that of normal speed, even under
different speed limits. Mostly, the desired speed is higher than the speed limit, but
sometimes beneath. This is due not only to the personalities, driving skills, and the
target of work of drivers that vary from each other, but it is also due to the fact that
performance conditions of vehicles are not on the same level. When drivers with
risky personalities drive small vehicles with great adding-speed ability, the desired
speed is mostly above the speed limit. On the other hand, if the drivers have
precautious driving psychologies, and the car performance is unwell, the desired
speed is always beneath the speed limit. In addition, when the transportation work is
urgent, the driver will improve the desired speed mainly considering economic
efficiency.
From the concern level of the drivers towards the influence factors of desired
speed, it can be seen that drivers choose the speed based on the speed limit, as long
as the road conditions, car performance and weather condition are normal. Therefore,
drivers’ desired speed and speed limit are not always the same under the speed-limit
condition, but changing consistently according to the real conditions of traffic.
Lights, crosses, bicycles, and walking passengers are always influencing the drivers’
desired speeds. In the investigation, some drivers thought the traffic management of
the sample road was not sufficient, which lead to traffic chaos, then affected the
desired speed. Other drivers determined the desired speed mostly out of a concern
about making sure to have a safe visual distance.
According to the relativity analysis of desired speed and other influence
factors under different speed limits, we know that drivers’ desired speeds are mostly
influenced by car models and age of drivers. This basically shows the following
characteristics: the lager the car, the lower the desired speed. The desired speeds
from passenger car drivers are normally higher than truck drivers. The older the
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driver and the longer the driving age, the more mature of a driving psychology and
the lower of the desired speed. On the other hand, under the circumstances that the
road is fine and the speed limit is high, different performances of passenger cars and
trucks can greatly influence desired speed. While under low speed limits, the age of
driving, i.e. the driving skills and level of proficiency, has a more obvious impact on
desired speed. In other words, following the declining of speed limit, the influence
of vehicle performance towards driver’s desired speed gets smaller and smaller,
while driver’s personal driving skills hold a more important position.
Generally speaking, motorcycle type and weather conditions have a great
impact towards desired speed under speed-limit conditions, while the differences
caused by the drivers’ gender are not so outstanding. Under the speed limit of
80km/h, passenger cars and trucks have obvious restrictions on desired speed, while
the relativity between the age and driving age, and the desired speed is minor. Under
the 60km/h and 40km/h speed limit, the influence of passenger cars and trucks
towards desired speed decrease massively, and the relativity is not so obvious.
However, the relativity between the desired speed and the age or the drive age is
getting stronger and stronger, and the influence is getting greater, following with the
declining of the speed limit standard. This phenomenon is mostly because the
performance of passenger cars and trucks are significantly different on our roads.
Under the usual circumstances, the capacities of passenger cars are far smaller than
trucks. Considering passengers’ comfort, acceleration and deceleration of passenger
cars are better than trucks. Higher speed limit roads usually have better road
facilities and traffic conditions. In good weather and smaller traffic flow, drivers will
consider driving high speeds to be ‘safe’. In the mean time, passenger car drivers
will choose high speeds, while truck drivers will hardly improve the desired speed
considering the cars performance and the safety of goods transportation. On the
other hand, lower speed limit roads usually have unsuitable road facilities and traffic
conditions for high-speed driving. Under such circumstances, the advantage of
passenger cars towards trucks declines massively. Driving skill and proficiency
levels, however, take the position of greater impact. Drivers with good skills and
proficiency can reasonably determine the desired speed, while drivers with
unfamiliar skills will easily overestimate or underestimate the desired speed.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research was supported by the National Basic Research Program of
China (2007BAK35B02) , the National Natural Science Foundation of China,
(50708019) and the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University
（NCET-08-0115）,and was also sponsored by the Qing Lan Project. The
authors wish to thank the committee members. We also would like to thank the
investigators from Southeast University, and all the people who gave help for this
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study.
REFERENCES
ZHENG An-wen, NIUZhuo-min. (2003) “Research on Coordination between
Motorway Operation Speed and Design Speed, J.of Wuhan Uni. of
Sci.&Tech.(Naturl Science Edition), 26(3), 273-275.
Ahlin, F.J. (1979) “An investigation into the consistency of drivers’ speed choice.”
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto.
Mats Haglund, Aberg L. (2000) “Speed Choice in Relation to Speed Limit and
Influences from Other Drivers.” Transportation Research Part F, 2000 (3):
39-51.
Aberg L, Larsen L, Glad A, Beilinson L. (1997) “Observed Vehicle Speed and
Drivers Perceived Speed of Others.” Applied Psychology, An International
Review, 46(3)：287-302.
Sharon Newnam, Barry Watson, Will Murray. (2004) “Factors predicting intentions
to speed in a work and personal vehicle.” Transportation Research Part F,
7 (2004): 287–300.
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Identification of Traffic Accident Prone Location

Based on Vehicle Speed Variability Indices

Pingfan LI1,2 Dianhai WANG 1 Changjun WANG 2 Dongbo LIU 2

1
Transportation College of Ji-Lin University, Changchun,130025, China,lpfnew@163.com
2
Traffic Management Research Institute of Public Security Ministry, Wuxi, 214151,China

ABSTRACT
Most methods used to identify traffic accident prone location are now based
on statistics. These methods are hysteretic for traffic accident prevention. To solve
this problem, an idea was brought forward to identify these locations in terms of
vehicle speed harmony. The concept of vehicle speed variability was given, and
eight indices were constructed to describe it. The sensitivity and utility of the indices
were analyzed through actual driving experiments. The results indicated that the
vehicle speed variability indices are sensitive enough to represent the influence on
vehicle speed by road factors. It afforded a new way of evaluating the safety level of
a road, and was useful in identifying traffic accident prone location. Finally,
identification of the locations based on vehicle speed variability indices might
remedy the defect of the hysteretic problems of traditional methods, due to the fact
that the method does not always depend on traffic accident data.
INTRODUCTION
Traffic accident prone locations are some road sections or intersections with
much more traffic accidents than others. The renovation of traffic accident prone
locations is an effective measure against traffic accidents, and has been regarded
highly by traffic management departments. As hot areas in traffic safety research,
many methods for identifying traffic accident prone location have been proposed by
researchers, and can be roughly classified into two types. The first type of method
takes traffic accident statistics as a basis, typically including the traffic accident rate
method, the quality control method, and the accident cumulative frequency curve
method. The second type of method is based upon the comprehensive analysis and
evaluation on the safety level of roads.(Zufeng SHAO,2008).The first type of
method takes the statistics theory as a basis, and is easy to use. However, they lack
the thought of traffic accident influence factors. The second type of method takes the
influence factors into consideration, and can be used to determine the influence
degree of different factors. This is useful in guiding renovation works. This method
usually needs plenty of investigation data, and is difficult to use.
Traditional methods of identifying traffic accident prone location depends on
traffic accident statistics, so these methods must be hysteretic for traffic accident
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prevention. Finding a method that can be used easily and proactively has yet to be
done. It is well known that almost every traffic accident and emergency condition in
driving is coupled with sudden changes of vehicle speed. Informed research results
also indicate that traffic accidents are closely related with sudden speed changes. At
the same time, vehicle speed results of driver behavior decision-making, are affected
by factors such as road environment, traffic situation, and driver characteristics.
Many useful information can be mined from vehicle speed data. Therefore, it can be
concluded that it is possible to identify traffic accident prone location through
vehicle speed information. Being able to analyze vehicle speed data and create
indices which can represent sudden change of vehicle speed, will become imperative
in this study.
VEHICLE SPEED VARIABILITY INDICES
The concept of vehicle speed variability refers to the degree of vehicle speed
change in a period of time.

CONSTRUCTION OF VEHICLE SPEED VARIABILITY INDICES

Linear indices. Linear analysis includes frequency-domain analysis and time
domain analysis. Frequency-domain analysis can transform vehicle speed data to the
sum of a sinusoidal curve with different frequency and amplitude by Fourier
transformation. There were, however, no obvious regularities in the results of
frequency-domain analysis. Time domain analysis refers to the analysis in some
selected periods of time. The indices usually include “average value”, and “standard
deviation”. Here, “standard deviation of speed” and “deviation of acceleration” were
selected to describe vehicle speed variability.
• Standard deviation of speed(VSD)
This index can be used to reflect the whole condition of speed variability in
selected time period, and can be calculated as formula (1).

( )
2
1 N
VSD = ∑ Vi − V
N − 1 i =1
(1)

Parameter descriptor list：

VSD ：standard deviation of vehicle speed；
N ：sample number；
Vi ：instantaneous vehicle speed of various survey point；
V ：mean value of vehicle speed.

• Standard deviation of vehicle acceleration(AOI)

Change of vehicle speed is normal in driving. But not all changes are
interrelated with emergency situations or traffic accidents. Analysis results indicate
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that vehicle acceleration can reflect the influence on driving by different factors
more sensitively. So AOI is selected, and can be calculated as formula (2).

( )
2
1 N
AOI = ∑ αi − α
N −1 1
(2)

Parameter descriptor list：

AOI ：standard deviation of vehicle acceleration；
N ：sample number；
α i ：instantaneous vehicle acceleration of various survey point；
α ：mean value of vehicle acceleration.
Nonlinear Indices. The Lorenz scatter graph is an important nonlinear
analysis method, and has been widely used in various data analyses. It has
multidimensional space cross sections with nonlinear responses, and usually used in
observing the development law of nonlinear systems.(FangJie LI, 2005). In this
paper, the Lorenz scatter graph is used in analyzing vehicle speed data. In drawing
the Lorenz scatter graph, the vehicle speed at moment “n” is used as axis-x, and the
speed at moment “n+1” is used as axis-y. Typical Lorenz scatter graphs about
vehicle speed are shown as figure 1. Quantitative indices can be calculated based on
the graph, and might be used to represent vehicle speed variability.

Figure 1. Characteristic parameters of vehicle speed Lorenz scatter graph

• Standard deviation vector length(VLI)
This index describes the global feature of vehicle speed variability, and can be
calculated as formula (3).

∑ (l )
N
2
i −l
i =1
VLI = (3)
N −1

Parameter descriptor list：

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VLI : Standard deviation vector length;

N : Number of scatter points;
li : Length of vector i ;
l : Average value of vector length.
• Vector angle Index(VAI)
This index is a corner dimension between scatter point vectors and line“ y = x ”,
and used to describe degree of scatter of the graph. It is calculated as formula (4).

∑θ
i =1
i − 45
VAI = (4)
N

Parameter descriptor list:

VAI : Vector angle Index;
N : Number of scatter points;
θ i : Corner dimension between scatter point vectors and line y=0.
• Length of prolate axis（LOP）
The length of the prolate axis is the distance between Point “L1”and Point “L2”.
First, identify the border of the scatter graph as illustrated in Figure 1. Second,
obtain the points of intersection between line“ y = x ” and the border (L1-S2-L2-S1-
L1) of scatter graph. Lastly, the length of the prolate axis can be calculated by range
formula.
• Length of minor axis（LOM）
The length of the minor axis is the maximum distance of the scatter graph in the
direction of “ y = − x ”, and can be used to describe stationary vehicle speed. This
index can be calculated as follows: First, get the points of intersection between
line“ y = − x ” and the border (L1-S2-L2-S1-L1) of scatter graph in range of “L1-L2”;
Second, calculate the distance of two points of intersection; Finally, LOM is the
maximum of all of the distance values. The LOM is the distance between point “S1”
and “S2” in Figure 1.
• Angle between prolate axis and minor axis （APM）
The APM is used to describe the degree of scatter in direction of“ y = − x ”. The
meaning of APM is also explained in Figure 1. If the scatter graph is symmetrical
along the line of “ y = x ”, then APM can be calculated as formula (5).( Jihong GUO
et al, 2003).
1 
 S1 S 2 
APM = arcsin 2  (5)
 L1 S1 
 
 
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Parameter descriptor list:

APM : Vector angle Index;
S1 S 2 : Distance between scatter point S1 and S 2 ;
L1 S1 : Distance between scatter point L1 and S1 .
However, the scatter graph may not always be symmetric. In that case, then the
distance between point S1 and Lc are not unequal to the distance between
point S 2 and Lc , and the APM should be calculated as formula (6).

 S L  S L 
APM = 0.5 * arcsin 1 c  + arcsin 2 c  (6)
  L1 S1   L1 S 2 
Parameter descriptor list:
APM : Vector angle Index;
S1 Lc : Distance between scatter point S1 and Lc ；
L1 S1 : Distance between scatter point L1 and S1 ；
S 2 Lc : Distance between scatter point S 2 and Lc ；
L1 S 2 : distance between scatter point L1 and S 2 .
• Area in border of scatter graph（AREA）
This index is also used to describe the global feature of vehicle speed
variability. The area values can be calculated by using method of convhull.(Barber,
C.B. et al.,1996).

UTILITY ANALYSIS ON VEHICLE SPEED VARIABILITY INDICES

Eight kinds of indices have been raised to describe vehicle speed variability,
and are feasible in terms of the constructing method. However, sensitivity and
relationships between the indices need to be inspected by experimental analysis. In
this study, experiments were conducted on three typical road sections in Wuxi,
including: ShiBaWan, QianRong, and YinXiu road sections. The ShiBaWan road
section is a dual four-lane carriageway about 5 kilometers long, and belongs to a
highway, the QianrRong road section is dual six-lane carriageway about 5
kilometers long, and belongs to a city expressway. Finally, the YinXiu road section
is dual four-lane carriageway about 5 kilometers long, and belongs to a urban
highway. 10 drivers between the ages of 27 and 48 (average: 37±4.2), with driving
experience 1 to 25 years (average: 8.0±3.1) were invited to participate in the
experiments. Every driver was asked to drive on the test road sections for one time,
and the vehicle speeds were recorded simultaneously. Thirty groups of valid data
were recorded, and speed variability indices were calculated. The results are shown
in Table 1.
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Table 1. Speed variability indices values about three road sections.

Driver Driver Driver Driver Driver Driver Driver Driver Driver Driver
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
VSD 10.3 5.3 9.5 13.6 8.5 9.6 7.6 8.2 18.8 12.4
AOI 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6
ShiBa
VLI 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.4
-Wan VAI 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.7
Road LOP 66.6 48.3 82.6 98.1 72.5 74.8 49.2 85.8 148.1 98.0
section LOM 7.7 10.7 12.1 13.8 11.6 9.8 14.8 10.5 11.8 12.4
APM 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.1
AREA 295.1 264.9 548.9 895.6 481.9 399.0 442.6 570.3 934.0 636.1
VSD 24.3 24.1 24.0 26.3 26.2 29.4 24.2 22.9 23.8 26.5
AOI 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2
Qian-
VLI 2.4 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.5 4.0 2.7 2.3 2.5 3.3
Rong VAI 3.3 3.3 4.9 4.4 4.6 3.8 4.6 3.7 4.2 4.6
Road LOP 148.7 151.3 134.4 155.8 140.4 195.0 132.2 127.5 146.8 176.9
section LOM 15.7 20.5 23.8 19.4 17.3 30.4 24.1 14.4 18.9 24.2
APM 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2
AREA 1386.2 1933.7 1625.9 1515.5 1280.7 2881.0 1472.3 1071.1 1633.7 2433.2
VSD 21.0 22.5 20.9 21.3 20.7 23.8 20.3 20.6 20.2 23.6
AOI 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3
Yin-
VLI 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.4 2.9 4.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.7
Xiu VAI 5.1 5.8 4.3 5.7 4.5 5.7 5.1 5.5 4.6 4.7
Road LOP 126.8 126.9 124.7 126.8 129.6 147.5 144.4 114.8 113.9 149.8
section LOM 27.8 25.8 23.8 25.8 22.2 41.7 20.0 25.3 26.5 28.2
APM 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3
AREA 2114.1 1585.2 1625.2 1793.1 1467.8 3108.3 1575.1 1462.2 1636.2 2181.4
Correlation analysis on speed variability indices. In order to know the
relationships between indices, correlation analyses were separately conducted according to
road sections. Three correlation matrixes were produced and converted to the style of figure,
as shown in Figure 2.~Figure 4.
LOM

LOP APM

VAI AREA

significant correlation
VLI VSD
high correlation
moderate correlation

AOI weak correlation

irrelevance

Figure 2. Correlation between indices about ShiBaWan Road Section.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 472
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LOM

LOP APM

VAI AREA

VSD
VLI
significant correlation
high correlation
moderate correlation
weak correlation
AOI
irrelevance

Figure 3. Correlation between indices about QianRong Road Section.

LOM

LOP APM

VAI AREA

VLI significant correlation

VSD
high correlation
moderate correlation
weak correlation
AOI irrelevance

Figure 4. Correlation between indices about YinXiu Road Section.

The Correlation analyses indicates three features: First, there are significant correlations
between VAI, VLI, and AOI. These indices describe characteristics about vehicle
acceleration changes. Second, the VLA、LOM, and APM have high correlations between
each other; these indices reflect the degree of speed scatter in common. Finally, the VSD、
LOP, and AREA, have moderate correlations; these indices describe the global feature of
vehicle speed variability. The results of the correlation analyses are in accord with the
definition of indices and subjective judgment, and can be used to condense indices in future
studies.
Variance analysis on speed variability indices. In order to know the degree of
influence on speed variability by drivers and road factors, a two-factor analysis of variance
was used to decipher the data from Table 1. The analysis was conducted separately in
connection with different indices. Results are shown as Table.2 ~Table.9.
Table 2. VSD- two factor analysis of variance.
Variance sum of Degree of Mean F- P- F-
Source squares freedom Square statistic value criterion
road section 1184.53 2 592.27 97.13 2.27E-10 3.55
driver 67.95 9 7.55 1.24 0.33 2.46
Error 109.76 18 6.10
sum 1362.24 29
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Table 3. AOI- two factor analysis of variance.

Variance sum of Degree of Mean F- P- F-
Source squares freedom Square statistic value criterion
road section 1.47 2 0.74 48.43 5.70E-08 3.55
driver 0.32 9 0.04 2.32 0.06 2.46
Error 0.27 18 0.02
sum 2.07 29

Table 4. VLI- two factor analysis of variance.

Variance sum of Degree of Mean F- P- F-
Source squares freedom Square statistic value criterion
road section 16.87 2 8.435 48.385 5.74E-08 3.55
driver 3.64 9 0.405 2.32 0.06 2.46
Error 3.14 18 0.175
sum 23.65 29

Table 5. VAI- two factor analysis of variance.

Variance sum of Degree of Mean F- P- F-
Source squares freedom Square statistic value criterion
road section 103.688 2 51.8 186.26 9.39E-13 3.55
driver 1.10 9 0.13 0.44 0.90 2.46
Error 5.01 18 0.28
sum 109.79 29

Table 6. LOP- two factor analysis of variance.

Variance sum of Degree of Mean F- P- F-
Source squares freedom Square statistic value criterion
road section 24734.77 2 12367.39 27.55 3.33E-06 3.556
driver 4800.35 9 533.379 1.19 0.36 2.46
Error 8081.52 18 448.979
sum 37616.65 29

Table 7. LOM-two factor analysis of variance.

Variance sum of Degree of Mean F- P- F-
Source squares freedom Square statistic value criterion
road section 1173.63 2 586.82 35.76 5.37E-07 3.55
driver 255.37 9 28.37 1.73 0.15 2.46
Error 295.34 18 16.41
sum 1724.34 29

Table 8. APM- two factor analysis of variance.

Variance sum of Degree of Mean F- P- F-
Source squares freedom Square statistic value criterion
road section 0.05 2 0.025 0.76 0.48 3.55
driver 0.36 9 0.04 1.22 0.34 2.46
Error 0.59 18 0.03
sum 0.99 29
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Table 9. AREA- two factor analysis of variance.

Variance sum of Degree of Mean F- P- F-
Source squares freedom Square statistic value criterion
road section 10374533 2 5187266.40 37.08 4.13E-07 3.55
driver 2993051.90 9 332561.32 2.38 0.056 2.46
Error 2517908.90 18 139883.83
sum 15885494 29
The two-factor analysis of variance on eight indices have results as follows:
there are seven indices which analyses results refused the hypothesis that road
factors have no obvious influence on speed variability; all seven accepted the
hypothesis that driver characteristics have no obvious influence on speed variability.
There was only one index-APM in which the analysis result accepted the hypothesis
that road factors have no obvious influences on speed variability, and also accepted
the hypothesis that driver characteristics have no obvious influence on that the
speed variability. So far, the results clearly indicate that vehicle speed variability is
caused mainly by road factors instead of driver’s characteristics. In other words, the
speed variability indices are sensitive to represent the difference of road factors.
METHOD OF IDENTIFIYING TRAFFIC ACCIDENT PRONE LOCATION
BASED ON SPEED VARIABILITY INDICES
PROCESS OF IDENTIFYING TRAFFIC ACCIDENT PRONE LOCATION
Vehicle speed variability indices are closely related to traffic accidents, and are
caused mainly by road factors. These indices can be used as evaluation indices on
traffic safety of roads. Identification of traffic accident prone location is to find the
road sections with low safety levels. The process is shown as Figure 5.

Determine Road Section

needing analysis

laser fifth Measure vehicle

wheel movement
instrument information

vehicle Collect road

GPS
speed& environment
instruments
acceleration information

Speed varibility Superimpose

graphical output
indices information

Identification
of traffic
Safety threshold
accident prone
location

Figure 5. Process of identifying traffic accident prone location.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 475
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SAFE THRESHOLD OF VEHICLE SPEED VARIABILITY INDICES

Traffic signals, pedestrians and others will all contribute to changes of vehicle
speed. Some of the changes are normal and safe, and some are prone to traffic
accidents. If there are more emergency situations on a road section than others, then
traffic accidents are more likely to happen, therefore, the vehicle speed variability
indices values should be higher than other road sections. There must be a rational
range of speed variability indices corresponding with safety. The range can be called
the safety threshold of vehicle speed variability indices that need to be validated by
analysis on correlation between the indices and traffic accident data. The analysis
will be studied later. Now, the sequence of road safety level of different road
sections can be listed by comparing speed variability indices. The relatively unsafe
road sections can be identified.
INSTANCE ANALYSIS
In this study, the ShanShuiXi road and the HuanHu road were used as examples
to show the application of vehicle speed variability indices in comparing the road
safety level and identifying traffic accident prone road sections.
BASE SITUATION OF TEST ROAD SECTIONS
The ShanShuiXi road is a dual two-lane carriageway about 10 kilometers long,
belonging to a highway. There are curved conduits and ramps in this section. The
traffic situation is simple because of few vehicles and pedestrians. The HuanHu road
is a dual four-lane carriageway about 5 kilometers long, and belongs to an urban
highway. Two groups of experiments were conducted in Oct. 2009. The situations of
traffic accidents are shown in Table 10.
Table 10. Traffic accident data( Oct. 2009).
Count Death Injury
ShanShuiXi-Road 56 0 3
HuanHu-Road 79 0 7

CALCULATION OF SPEED VARIABILITY INDICES

Lorenz scatter graphs were drawn based on the experiment data, and are showed
as Figure 6. and Figure 7.
Vn+1 Vn+1

Vn Vn

Figure 6. Lorenz scatter about Figure 7. Lorenz scatter about vehicle

vehicle speed of ShanShuiXi Road. speed of HuanHu Road.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 476
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Vehicle speed variability indices values were calculated through the methods
above mentioned. The results are shown in Table 11.
Table 11. Values of vehicle speed variability indices.
VSD AOI VLI VAI LOP LOM APM AREA
ShanShuiXi-Road 10.14 0.66 1.57 1.09 91.48 9.33 0.21 476.15
HuanHu-Road 14.10 0.59 1.50 1.68 128.12 12.50 0.12 901.28

ANALYSIS ON ROAD SECTION SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT RISK

The analysis of road section safety level was conducted by comparing the
indices values. It can be found from Figure 6~7. and Table 10. that the vehicle speed
variability on the HuanHu road is higher than that on the ShanShuiXi road. These
results indicate that the HuanHu road is in higher traffic accident risk than the
ShanShuiXi road. The results are in consistence with the facts shown in Table 10.
CONCLUSION
This paper put forward an idea to identify traffic accident prone locations in
terms of vehicle speed harmony. A concept of “vehicle speed variability” was raised
and eight indices were constructed to describe it. Thirty groups of driving
experiments were conducted to analyze relationships between the indices and the
sensitivity to road and driver factors. The results show that vehicle speed variability
indices are sensitive enough to represent the effect of road factors on changes of
vehicle speed, and can be used as reference in identifying traffic accident prone
locations. Methods of identifying traffic accident prone location were presented in
this paper. However, the safe threshold of speed variability indices still need to be
validated by analyzing the correlations between speed variability and accident
frequency or severity. Now, the method can only be used to evaluate the relative risk
of road by comparing the indices. Finally, the identification of traffic accident prone
location based on vehicle speed variability indices might remedy the defect of the
hysteretic problems of traditional methods.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This study was supported by projects as follows: 1 ） National science
foundation project-Study of driver behavior model based on psychological field,
fund code:70971053；2）National science foundation project- Monitoring and pre-
warning technology and equipment on driving status, fund code: 2009AA11Z214；
3）national key scientific and technological project, Study and demonstrating on
monitoring technology about driver behaviors, fund code::2007BAK35B02.
REFERENCES
Barber, C.B., Dobkin, D.P., and Huhdanpaa, H.T.(1996)."The Quickhull algorithm
for convex hulls", ACM Transactions on Mathematical
Software, http://www.qhull.org.
FangJie LI.(2005) "Lorenz scatter graphs", Journal of Clinical Electrocardiology, 6
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 477
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（4）:307.
Jihong GUO, Ping ZHANG.(2003). "Ambulatory electrocardiography", People’s
Health Publisher, Peking.
ZuFeng SHAO.(2008). "Review on methods of identifying traffic accident prone
locations", Road traffic & safety,8(2):45-49.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 478
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Research on Safety Analysis and Countermeasures on Qinghai-Tibet Highway

Jian TIAN 1 Jiding CHEN 2 Jianfeng XI 3
1Research Center for Environment Protection and Transportations Safety, Academy
of Transportation Sciences, Ministry of Communications of People's Republic of
China, 100029, Beijing, China; PH: 13810467051, email: tianjiandxx@163.com
2 Research Center for Environment Protection and Transportations Safety, Academy
of Transportation Sciences, Ministry of Communications of People's Republic of
China, 100029, Beijing, China; PH: (010)58278202 , email: chenjiding@iiac.ac.cn
3Transportation College of Jilin University, P.O. Box130022, Changchun, PH (+ 86)
0431-85095705; email: xijf@yeah.net

Abstract
Qinghai-Tibet highway is a highland highway connecting Qinghai and Tibet in
the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In order to improve traffic safety and reduce traffic
accidents of the Qinghai-Tibet highway, present state of traffic safety and traffic
accident causes are analyzed. According to preliminary investigations, driver
fatigue, speeding, and poor highway conditions are the main causes for accidents.
The main problems about highway conditions have been analyzed from the following
three aspects of roadside circumstances: highway, alignment, and traffic safety
facilities. Finally, safety countermeasures are put forward, which consist of
improving highway circumstances, adding traffic safety devices, and strengthening
driver training.

1 Introduction
Qinghai-Tibet highway is a main artery highway, the length of which is 1,155
kilometers from Tibet to Qinghai. It has a very important role for Tibetan society,
which accounts for 90 percent of total traffic volume of cargo transportation in Tibet.
Qinghai-Tibet highway is located on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau with harsh
natural environment conditions. The Average altitude of the highway through the
area is over 4,500 meters. In the permafrost region, which is most of the highway
across no man's land, the weather is cold, and the air is thin. Due to various
constraints, basic safety protection facilities of highways are seriously lacking.
In recent years, China has constantly increased infrastructure investment of
transportation; the condition of Qinghai-Tibet highway has improved after several
reconstruction and expansion projects. With the improvement of road conditions,
traffic volume has increased rapidly, while operating speeds have become higher.
Consequently, traffic safety problems have become more evident.
Traffic accidents are frequently occurring on the Qinghai-Tibet highway, which
is resulting in significant property damage, casualties, and affecting the operation of
vehicles on the highway. For example, in 2004, because of fatigue driving, a
truck overturned under an embankment. The aftermath of the accident was very
painful, six people were killed, and two people were slightly injured. In 2006, a
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major read-end accident occurred in the vicinity of NaQu, killing seven people, and
injuring twelve. The cause was speeding. Due to these fatal incidents, more people
are concerned with the problems on traffic safety of the Qinghai-Tibet highway.
Being a tourist highway, more vehicles will pass through the highway, and if the
local government does not solve the safety problems, it will cause more casualties.
Based on traffic safety situations on the Qinghai-Tibet highway, targeted
remediation activities to prevent the traffic accidents are urgent. This paper relies on
the investigation of the characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet highway, and will also
put forward safety countermeasures.
2 Characteristics of road condition
Road conditions play a key role for traffic safety. Research of the former Soviet
Union showed that the impact of poor road conditions accounts for 70% of the direct
or indirect causes of traffic accidents. From 2007, several field surveys were carried
out. The variety of traffic volumes can be seen from figure 1. It can be noted that the
traffic volume was the largest in the fall of 2007.
Distribution of traffic volume

1600
1400
Traffic volume

1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month

Figure 1. Distribution curve of traffic volume.

The Qinghai-Tibet highway embankment is relatively high, which has a
negative effect on traffic safety. The pavement is severely damaged in the permafrost
regions. Vehicles traveling in these regions jump frequently, likely causing a
serious accident.
2.1 Roadside environment
The Qinghai-Tibet highway is located on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. Along the
roadside, vegetation conditions follow from south to north by grassland (plateau) -
meadow - desert.

Figure 2. One style of Roadside environment.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 480
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Figure 3. Other style of Roadside environment.

The southern half of the highway is located near well-developed natural
vegetation with high coverage. The northern half, however, contains extremely
sparse vegetation, and has obvious signs of desertification, showing desert
landscapes and visual monotony.
Due to the roads’ monotonous landscape, the driver lacks a clear frame of
reference. If the driver has no stimulation in his or her eyes, the he or she will have
an irritable mood, and increased fatigue, as shown in figure 2 and figure 3.
2.2 Highway alignment
(1) Straight segment is too long
There is a problem of long straight segments in the flat prairie section. A
Driver's visual response and mental endurance is defect from the environment. As the
segment is too monotonous, it will easily lead to driver fatigue, driver
unresponsiveness, and late reaction times. These are all capable of causing accidents.
A Driver's fatigue process is related to the amount of information received. While the
amount of information is insufficient, the driver’s mental activity will decrease.,
Prolonged monotonous operation will cause driver fatigue. If a driver becomes in
this situation encounters a sudden change, he will not deal with it in time, which
could lead to a traffic accident.
German research results show that drivers driving on normal straight
segments more than 70 seconds may feel monotonous. Due to a segment’s monotony,
it is easy to disperse the driver's attention, resulting in fatigue and unresponsiveness.
This inadvertently increases the speed of visual distance prone to errors and other
reasons, and could easily lead to a speeding disadvantage on the road.
(2) Consecutive curve
Some sections of the highway often turn sharply, as shown in figure 4. The
lack of advance warning signs in the corner was not equipped with a mandatory
speed limit device (slow band). As a result, the driver’s line of sight was affected,
directly affect traffic safety.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 481
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Figure 4. Consecutive curves.

2.3 Traffic safety facilities
Since 2004, under the help of highway safety and security engineering, carried
by the Ministry of Communications, traffic safety facilities were installed in several
segments.
Because of financial constraints, the corner sight is still poor in some sections.
Marks are missing, the fence is not continuous, and roadside protection is inadequate.
At night, when traveling along the road, driver’s information is not as coherent.
If the road alignment changes, it may result in a traffic accident.
In addition, the mark is settled too close to a danger point. Combined with fast
speed, the mark has a difficult time playing a valid role. Speed control
measurements across the board are needed to effectively bind the driver behavior.
3 Characteristics of traffic accidents
In 2007, sixty five cases of traffic accidents occurred, and seventy six people
were killed. As seen from figure 5, accidents mainly happened in May, October and
November of 2007. Deaths due to traffic accidents are even more intensive in autumn
and winter; the severity of the accidents is also higher, which accounts for 60% of the
total. Correlation of the number of traffic accidents and traffic volume is not as
strong; traffic accidents are affected mainly by driver mentality and change of
highway environment.
According to the analysis of statistical data from the traffic police department,
the main types of Qinghai-Tibet highway accidents are roadside accidents, and
rear-end accident.
The pavement of Qinghai-Tibet highway is up to the national secondary road
standards, whose speed limit is 70 km / h. Most of the road lies in no man's land.
The driver is in a relatively free state, particularly, due to the lack of warning signs.
Although traffic police are taking measures to limit the speed, over-speeding is
prevalent. Over-speeding is an important incentive for road traffic accidents. It is not
only contributing to a considerable proportion of the total number of accidents, but it
is also inducing major accidents. In 2007, deaths due to over-speeding accounts for
50.76%.
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Figure 5. Distribution of the number of accidents.

The Qinghai-Tibet highway is a two-lane highway with high embankments and a
lack of temporary parking spots. There are only a few rest areas; used for temporary
parking of vehicles on the highway for rest. When the drivers of other vehicles are
affected by a deficit of sight and attention, rear-end accidents are more likely to
occur.
With more than 1,000 kilometers of highway across no man's land, drivers hope
to arrive at the destination earlier, especially drivers of transport trucks which are
the main type from table 1. Drivers are more easily tired because of the lack of
oxygen in the high altitude. Fatigue driving is more prevalent, and whose working
capacity will be dropped significantly. According to statistical data, 40% of accidents
are related with fatigue driving.
Table 1. Distribution of the Qinghai-Tibet highway vehicle types.
Vehicle type Percent (%)
1 Truck 51
2 Car 8
3 Bus 6
4 Other(Tractor，Motorcycle) 35
According to statistical analysis of traffic accidents, the number of accidents at
night account for about 80 percent of the total. Night-time is accident-prone, with the
driver driving with continuous fatigue, and also with incomplete road signs and
markings. The driver does not additionally receive adequate road information; there
are instruction blind spots, and there is a lack of appropriate protective measures on
the road side.
Speeding, illegal parking, lack of signs and markings, and the lack of service
areas are the most common impressions of safety risks on the highway, based on a
questionnaire of drivers.
4 Countermeasures of highway safety
Relying on Qinghai-Tibet’s highway perfect reconstruction project, and with the
Qinghai-Tibet highway safety improvement technical studies, the analysis of
physiological and psychological effects of the driver from Qinghai-Tibet unique
natural environment was performed. The safe operating environment of
Qinghai-Tibet highway will be improved from the aspects of highway alignment,
safety facilities, signs, markings and speed-control facilities.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 483
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(1) Increasing parking area

Qinghai-Tibet highway is the best highway to go to. Tibet has become the first
choice to drive in, especially as the rapid development of self-driving tourism of
China continues. Therefore, transport trucks and small passenger cars will be the
main components of the need to set up parking areas along highways for rest.
Without taking up lanes, and improving the living area along the route, could help
to attract motorists to stop and avoid fatigue driving.
(2) Implementing driver’s safety education
Being that Qinghai-Tibet highway has poor environmental requirements,
enhancing the driver's safety education and raising the driver’s awareness of road
safety has the ability to respond to complex situations and determine accurate and
adopt appropriate measures. The Traffic police department needs to continue to take
effective measures to control speed, they need to enhance punishment.
(3) Strengthening safety management
The Harsh natural environment has increased the difficulty of traffic safety
management. Traffic management departments should strengthen road safety
management, on the basis of speed limit, increasing patrols along the intensity.
5 Conclusions
(1) Based on statistical data, the main types of Qinghai-Tibet highway accidents
are roadside accidents and rear-end accidents. According to preliminary
investigations, driver fatigue, speeding, and poor highway conditions are the main
reasons for the accidents.
(2) The main problems about highway conditions have been analyzed from the
three aspects of roadside circumstances, highway alignment, and traffic safety
facilities. The key problems are the serious pavement damage, the environment
monotony, the unreasonable linear combination, and the lack of safety facilities.
(3) Safety countermeasures for improving safety are: improving highway
circumstances, adding traffic safety devices, and strengthening driver training.

REFERENCES
First Highway Survey and Design Institute of China .Qinghai-Tibet highway
reconstruction project report[R]. Xi'an, 2003
Guo Ke-Qing, Xu Xijuan. Practical manual of road safety engineering[M]. Beijing:
People's Transportation Publishing company.2007
Guo Zhongyin,Fang Shouen .Road safety engineering[M].Beijing:People's
Transportation Publishing company, 2002.
Hong Yanyan, Pan Xiaodong. Road safety and road environment [J].Highways &
Automotive .2007 (5): 48 ~ 51
Mou XIAO,Wan Guowei,Xu Bing. Highlands long straight road vehicle driving
safety [J]. Chang'an University (Natural Science Edition) .2007, 27 (3): 76 ~
79.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 484
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Impact of Macrotexture Depth and Its Variation on Safety on Rainy Days

Haiying Li1, Boming Tang2,Dong Shao3, Ming Li4 , and Jianping GAO5
1
Engineer, Vice President of Chongqing Expressway Group Co., Ltd. 66#, Yinshan
Ave., Chongqing, 401121, China; e-mail: 89081963lhy@163.com, e-mail:
Jianping@cquc.edu.cn
2
Professor, President of Chongqing Jiaotong University, 66#,Xuefu Ave., Chongqing,
400074, China; e-mail: tbm@netease.net
3
Engineer, Chongqing Expressway Group Co., Ltd. 66#, Yinshan Ave., Chongqing,
401121, China; e-mail: Shaodong2008@vip.sina.com
4
Master degree student, School of Civil & Architecture, Chongqing Jiaotong
University; e-mail: ncwu_liming@yahoo.com.cn
5
Professor, Dean of Road Engineering, School of Civil & Architecture, Chongqing
Jiaotong University, 66#,Xuefu Ave., Chongqing, 400074, China; PH:
(86)(23)62652960, mobil:13637901962.

ABSTRACT
Pavement macrotexture depth proves to be both a significant factor affecting
the pavement adhesion coefficient on rainy days and a regular data for freeway
maintenance routine testing. Based on a comprehensive consideration of the road
conditions, weather and daily traffic volume, this paper analyzes the impact imposed
by road macrotexture depth and the discontinuity of changes upon accidents on rainy
days with 500m as a computation unit and the average macrotexture depth per 100m
and daily traffic volume as indicators. Those fitting results by inverse function have
indicated that accidents on rainy days show an upward tendency along with the
decrease in macrotexture depth. What’s more, studies on the continuity of changes in
macrotexture depth have shown that accident rate on rainy days will increase as the
rate of reduction in mean macrotexture depth within 100meters dose. By means of
the test of significance of the average rate of accidents on rainy days on different
macrotexture depth and its change, it is found out that accidents rate on rainy days
increases noticeable as the is lowered below 0.4mm and the change rate of
macrotexture depth is higher than 0.3mm within 100m, on which occasion
maintenance of the road is strongly recommended.

INTRODUCTION
The relationship between pavement property and road safety has long been
recognized by transportation agencies and concern with the number of accidents
occurring in wet pavement conditions. Numerous studies had explored the
relationship between friction and crash occurrences. However the relationship
between pavement macrotexture depth (MTD) and wet accident rate (WAR) has not
been thoroughly researched. Freeway safety level can be improved if the relationship
between the macrotexture depths that cause crashes can be quantified. This would
allow decision makers to allocate resources to address the most serious safety risks.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 485
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LITERATURE REVIEW
Macrotexture is important in limiting the reduction in friction as the vehicle
speed or water film thickness increase,The macrotexture contributes to the pavement
friction by helping drain water away from the surface (Kamel and Gartshore).
Microtexture, macrotexture, megatexture, and roughness are the features of
the road surface that ultimately influence most tire-road interactions including wet
pavement skid resistance, noise, splash and spray, rolling resistance, and tire wear.
At the 18thWorld Road Congress, the Committee on Surface Characteristics of the
World Road Association (PIARC) proposed the texture wavelength range for each of
the categories.
Alexandros G.kokkalis and Olympia K. Panagouli calculate the Correlation
between the fractal dimension and the skid resistance for dried and wetted pavement
conditions (1997) .
One study had explored the relationship between friction and mean
macrotexture depth, they found the model is shown in the following:
FN 40R = 44.1 - 7.53 MTD (mm): at 40 mph
FN 50R = 41.8 - 7.21 MTD (mm): at 50 mph.
For the wet accident rate is directly associated with the friction, a study of
high-speed rural roads in Germany suggested a non-linear relation, with a higher
slope for low friction values than for high friction values.
John C. burns and Wolfgang E. Meyer found the longitudinal direction
variations in the friction properties of pavement surfaces occur more frequently than
is commonly assumed and analyzed several types of discontinuities.
To sum up, most study on the relationship between the wet accident rate and
macrotexture depth is based on the friction coefficient, and use friction coefficient as
a intermediate variable. This paper studies the properties of the macrotexture, then
explore the relationship between WAR and MTD, and Support the future
rehabilitation or reconstruction.

DATA ACQUISION AND PRE-PROCESSING

This study collects the K0+000~K55+500 bidirectional pavement texture
depth, traffic accidents and traffic volume data of certain freeway in China’s western
area of Chongqing, and pre-process those data before making relevant analysis.
Data Acquisition
This study firstly collects accident data and traffic volume data of the two
years of 2008 and Early 2009, among which the former contains accident time,
location, type, weather conditions, and other detailed parameters, and the latter is
calculated after freeway network allocation based on the records of toll station
passageways. Before the analysis of the relation of accidents and MTD, a
preliminary analysis of the data collected has been made, including the distribution
of accident statistics, accident rates calculation, identification of accident-prone
sections. On this basis, laser surface inspection system is applied to detect the road
mean profile depth (MPD) on July 13, 2009, at intervals of 10 meters. According to
ASTME 1845, MTD=0.79MPD+0.23, transforms MPD into MTD so as to continue
next analyzing and calculating.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 486
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Distribution Test of Macrotexture Depth

It is necessary to carry out an independence test for MTD data before
analyzing in order to ensure that the data is representative. This study has obtained
8326 MTD data samples in total of which the mean MTD value is 0.6563 and
standard deviation is 0.16693. The results of normal distribution test for MTD are as
shown in Figure 1.

1 .0
1,200

1,000 0.8

E xp e c te d C u m P ro b
800
0.6
F re q u e n c y

600

0.4

400

0.2

200

0.0
0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 .0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

构造深度
O b s e r ve d C u m P r o b
MTD

Figure 1. Histogram and P-P Probability Plots of MTD.

Figure 1 shows the MTD data conforms to the characteristics of normal

distribution and meets the analysis requirements.
Filtering and Aggregating Data
Analytical Unit Division
Due to varied traffic volume of different freeway sections, and various levels
of features demonstrated by traffic safety, section division should be firstly carried
out according to interchange positions in order to reduce the impact of traffic factors
on analysis results. Based on section division, units can be divided in 500 meters.
208 pieces of valid data have been collected from K6 +000 ~ K55 +500 section in
the out-of-town direction and K55 +500 ~ K0 +200 section in the in-town direction.
Macrotexture Depth
Discreteness of MTD in each computational unit and the decisive impact of
the minimum MTD on traffic safety considered, the minimum MTD in each
computational unit is taken as the typical value of this unit. Refer to Table 1 for
samples.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 487
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Table 1. Macrotexture depth data.

MTD 500m Min (
Stake Recorded Distance (km)
(mm) mm)
K8+000 1.48 0.729
K8+010 1.49 0.801
K8+020 1.5 0.728
…… …… ……
K8+380 1.86 0.529
K8+390 1.87 0.601 0.396
K8+400 1.88 0.396
…… …… ……
K8+480 1.96 0.578
K8+490 1.97 0.594
K8+500 1.98 0.546

Accident Data
According to the relation between the vehicles’ travelling direction and the
city at the time of the accident, accident data was divided into accidents in the
in-town direction and accidents in the out-of-town direction. Count data of each
500-meter segment computational unit together for a sum, including the total
accident number and the wet accident number. For samples, see Table 2 and Table 3.

Table 2. The accident data from K14+000 to K14+500.

Weather traffic direction Accident location Sum
Fine Out-of-Town K14+000
Fine Out-of-Town K14+095
Fine Out-of-Town K14+166
6
Fine Out-of-Town K14+220
Fine Out-of-Town K14+320
Fine Out-of-Town K14+320

Table 3. The wet accident data from K14+000 to K14+500.

Weather traffic direction Accident location Sum
Rainy Out-of-Town K14+320
2
Rainy Out-of-Town K14+320

Traffic Distribution
For each 500-meter computational unit, traffic volume is distributed in
accordance with its section location and direction and annual average daily traffic
volume (AADT).
Unit Accident Rate Calculation
As the AADT of various sections differentiates greatly, the accident rate is
picked up as safety evaluation indicator. The Total accident rate (TAR) and wet
pavement accident rate (WAR) of each 500-meter units are calculated based on the
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accident data and AADT, as shown in Table 4.

Number of Accident
Accident Rate = ´ 10 8 (1/108Veh·km)
AADT ´ 365 ´ 0.5

Table 4. The data after dealer.

MTD AADT TAR WAR
Stake
(mm) (veh) 8
（1/10 veh·km） （1/108veh·km）
…… …… …… …… ……
K6+000～k6+500 0.529 12589 870.5142672 174.1029
K6+500～
0.629 12589 696.4114137 174.1029
K7+000
K7+000～
0.454 12589 2611.542802 1218.72
K7+500
0.418 8800 498.132005 0
…… …… …… …… ……

DATA ANALYSIS
Wet Accident Rate versus Macrotexture Depth
The freeway MTD ranges within 0.3 ~ 1.2mm according to the measured data.
Statistics acquired by associating the wet accident rates of each 500-meter units with
the representative value of MTD is as shown in Figure 2.

600

300
WAR

0.3 0.6 0.9

MTD
Figure 2. Wet Accident Rate versus Macrotexture Depth.

Figure 2 shows that wet accident rate is in inverse proportion to MTD,

decreasing significantly with increase in MTD.
The curve estimation is applied to analyse the relation between wet weather
accident rates and MTD for further conformation, in which the inverse function
works best. The result of regression analysis is as following:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 489
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39.559
- 10.486 y=
x
y —wet accident rate,1/108veh·km;
x —macrotexture depth,mm.
Regression curve parameters are as shown in Table 5.

Table 5. T-Test Regression Results：Independent Variable=MTD.

MTD WAR
(mm) (1/108veh·km)
F 57.529
Pr＞F 2.077E-11
2
R 0.0259

As seen from Table 5, although wet accidents increase with decrease in MTD
on the whole, the regression correlation coefficient is rather low with poor fitting
effects. It indicates that further analysis is necessary since there is a deviation of the
minimum MTD as the typical value of 500-meter computational units.
Mean Wet Accident Rate ,Wet Accident Percentage and Macrotexture Depth
Mean Wet Accident Rate versus Macrotexture Depth
Set out several intervals for MTD in order to analyze effectively the
abstracted relation between MTD and wet accident rate, calculate the mean wet
accident rate within each interval, and then conduct regression fitting so as to
investigate the correlation.

140 Mean Wet Accident Rate (1/10E7vel· km)

Mean Wet Accident Rate (1/10E7vel· km)

DoseResp Fit of MWAR

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
0.0 0.5 1.0
MTD (mm)
Figure 3. Mean Wet Accident Rate versus Macrotexture Depth.

775.36
y = 23.4 +
1 + 10(3.1844 x + 0.31844)
Where, y —mean wet accident rate, 1/108veh·km
x —macrotexture depth, mm.
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Table 6. T-Test Regression Results: Independent Variable=MTD.

MTD Mean Wet Accident Rate
(mm) （1/108veh·km）
F 92.78
Pr＞F 0
2
R 0.8908
Table 6 shows that there is a good correlation between MTD and mean wet
accident rate, and the result illustrates that the wet accident rate decreases with
increase in MTD. The deep macrotexture depth is in favor of providing sufficient
space and drainage, reducing water film thickness and enhancing traffic safety
consequently.
Relationship between Ratio of Wet Accident Rate and Macrotexture Depth
The wet accident ratio is introduced in order to further analyze the impact of
macroexture depth on wet accident, namely the ratio of wet accident rate to total
accident rate, and its relation with MTD is also analyzed. Statistical result is as
shown in Figure 4.
1.00
S c a le
15

10
5
0.80 0

0.60
P ER C ENT

0.40

0.20

0.00

0 .20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

MTD

Figure 4.Ratio of Wet accident Rate versus MTD (1/108veh·km).

Figure 4 reveals that sections of which wet accident ratio to the total is over
30% are distributed densely, with MTD being about 0.4 ~ 0.5; while MTD of
Sections with wet accident ratio over 80% is about 0.4. The results fully bear out the
direct relevance between wet accident-prone area and MTD.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 491
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WAR Cumlative Percentage

1.0

WAR Cumlative Percentage

0.5

0.0

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

MTD

Figure 5. Cumulative Percentage of the Wet Accident Rate.

The cumulative frequency analysis shows that the cumulative frequency of

wet accident is 65.52% when MTD is 0.4mm. On the contrary, wet accidents of
sections with MTD less than 0.4mm accounts for 34.48% of the total, while the
section length accounts for only 15.1%, which fully proves that wet accidents are
denser thus forming accident black-spots when MTD is less than 0.4mm. Regression
fitting of cumulative frequency may result in:
y = -7.466 x3 + 19.375 x 2 - 16.582 x + 4.695
Where, y —Cumulative Percentage;
x —macrotexture depth, mm.

Table 7. T-Test Regression Results：Independent Variable=MTD.

Cumulative Percentage MTD (mm)
F 2054.179
Pr>F 0
2
R 0.974

results of derivative calculation are as the following:

Table 8. Feature Points Derivative Calculation.

MTD 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
y' -9.64 -8.211 -6.889 -5.679 -4.58 -3.594 -2.72
It can see from the analysis and calculation, the cumulative frequency curve’s
slope grows when MTD is above 0.4mm, that is, wet accident rate has a tendency to
increase sharply, and maintenance treatment is needed for the pavement.
Breakpoint of Macrotexture Depth
In order to find out if there are any significant impact on accident rate when
MTD reduces to a certain degree, significance test of mean wet accident rate is
conducted, with 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 and 0.7 as the respective feature point. Calculate the
mean wet accident rate above and below each breakpoint, then carry out the
significance test, thus locating the sensitive point where MTD affects wet accident
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 492
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rate to provide sensible decision-making foundation for future pavement

rehabilitation or reconstruction. T-Test results are as shown in Table 9.

Table 9. T-Test Results: Mean Wet Accident Rate.

MTD MTD MTD MTD
Statistic
<0.4 >0.4 <0.5 >0.5 <0.6 >0.6 <0.7 >0.7
141.96 57.176 83.46 47.42 73.27 53.66 70.61 49.80
MWAR
6 7 8 1 5 1 7 1
144.82 99.23 65.69 92.93 70.80 89.46 99.60
Variance 69.272
4 4 1 3 6 7 4
Sig.(2-taile
0.00 0.05 0.207 0.634
d)

150

<BREAKPOINT
>BREAKPOINT

100
MWAR

50

0
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
MTD

Figure 6. Mean Wet Accident Rate at MTD Breakpoint.

The results in Table 9 show that, the mean wet accident rate of pavement
section which MTD below 0.4mm is very higher than the section above 0.4mm.For a
MTD breakpoint of 0.4mm, the significance t-test is passed, so, when MTD values
are below 0.4mm, pavement sections should be programmed for rehabilitation or
reconstruction activities.
Discontinuities of Mean Macrotexture Depth versus Wet Accident Rate
MTD variance ratio is so high that the consistency of pavement friction
coefficient deteriorates. This will cause uneven water film thickness in rainy days
and makes vehicle skidding, which is extremely against travel safety, especially for
the cars.
The probability of injury during a collision is increased for small vehicles.
Crash involvement rates for smaller cars are greater than for larger cars. In different
circumstances, or roadway disturbances may pose more severe problems for smaller
cars than for other vehicle. Large commercial vehicles, because of their size and
weight, may be more insensitive than passenger cars to some surface discontinuities.
Those differences are seen in roughness response and sensitivity to low tire–road
surface friction. Several accident-prone sections and the MTD changes of its
upstream sections are as shown in Figure 7.
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④
② ③

Figure 7. Change of MTD vs Wet Accident Rate at Breakpoint (go out city).
From Figure 7, we can see that there is a certain relation between wet
accident rate and MTD’s changes, that is, the former increases with the wax of
MTD’s fluctuations.
Analyze the impact of MTD’s continuity on wet accident rate with the
indicator of 100-meter MTD’s change rate.
1200
WAR
1000

800

600
WAR

400

200

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

MTD CHANGE RATE
Figure 8. Wet Accident Rate versus Change Rate of MTD.

Sections with MTD decrease in 100-meter less than 0.3 embody relatively
low accident rate. In this case, the MTD is more uniform, and provide vehicle a more
stability skid resistance for running, wet accident rate in sections whose 100-meter
MTD change rate is more than 0.3mm has a tendency of increasing. The main reason
for it lies in the sharp change of MTD which leads to poor consistency of pavement
parameter, especially when braking in rainy days. Under such circumstances, the
inconsistency of MTD will cause friction coefficient and water film thickness to
fluctuate greatly within the braking distance, wheels to tolerate conflicting stress,
vehicles to lose control, and finally initiate accidents, with more severe influences on
cars at high speed in particular. With the change rate of 100-meter MTD as
measurement indicator, it is advised that maintenance for the given section or
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management of speed and distance should be enhanced to ensure traffic safety when
the change rate grows greater than 0.3mm.

CONCLUSION
Although there was not a strong statistical correlation found between
pavement macrotexture and wet accident rate, the results of this research show that
MTD less than 0.4mm or its change rate more than 0.3mm/100m negatively
contribute to safety under wet pavement conditions. Therefore, pavement sections
identified with MTD below 0.4mm or its change rate greater than 0.3mm per 100m
are recommended to be programmed for resurfacing, rehabilitation or reconstruction
and take traffic management countermeasures, such as limit the operation speed etc.
to prompt safety.

REFERENCES
David A. Noyce, and Hussain U. Bahia. (2007). “Incorporating Road Safety into
Pavement Management:Maximizing Surface Friction for Road Safety
Improvements” University of Wisconsin, Madison
Huddleston, I.J., H. Zhou, and R.G. Hicks. (1991). “Performance Evaluation of
Open-Graded Asphalt Concrete Mixtures used in Oregon.” Asphalt Paving
Technology, Vol.60, 1991.
Larson, R.M. “Using Friction and Texture Data to Reduce Traffic Fatalities, Serious
Injuries,and Traffic Delays.” Applied Pavement Technology, Inc.,
Springfield, VA.
Kamel, N. and T. Gartshore. (1982) “Ontario’s Wet Pavement Accident Reduction
Program. Pavement Surface Characteristics and Materials,” ASTM Special
Technical Publication No.763, 1982. Washington.
Kuttesch, J., (2004). “Quantifying the Relationship between Skid Resistance and
WetWeather Accidents for Virginia Data”. Thesis submitted to the faculty
of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Blacksburg, VA.
Kevin K. McGhee, (2009). “Influence of Roadway Surface Discontinuities on
Safety” State of the Art Report. Sponsored by the Surface
Properties–Vehicle Interaction Committee Transportation Research
Board ,Washington.
Roe P.G., D.C. Webster and G. West. (1991). “The Relation between the Surface
Texture of Roads and Accidents”. TRRL Research Report 296. Transport
and Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne.
Schlosser, K-H. (1977) “Traffic Accidents and Road Surface Skidding Resistance.”
In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research
Board, No. 623, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Standard Practice for Calculating Pavement Macrotexture Mean Profile Depth,
ASTM Standard, Volume 04.03, 2006
Smith, Timothy E., Xin Chen, Wenbing Song, and Adel Hedfi. (2006) “Investigation
of Skid Resistance of Hot-Mix-Asphalt-Surfaced Pavements in Maryland
State Highway Network System”. Transportation Research Board Annual
Meeting Compendium, paper 06-0572,Washington, D.C.
Xiao, J., et al. (2000). “Prediction of risk of wet-pavement accidents: fuzzy logic
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 495
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model”. Transportation Research Record 1717, 28–36

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 496
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Optimizing Design of Urban Intersection using Reliability Analysis

Zhiqiang LIU 1, Hongmao QIN 2, Li ZHANG3, Peng WANG4, Shiliang SONG5

1
Zhi-qiang LIU, Ph.D. adviser, Dean of Traffic Engineering, School of Automobile
and Traffic Engineering, Jiangsu University, China; Email: zhqliu@ujs.edu.cn; Tel:
0511-85815560
2
Hong-mao QIN, PhD student, School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,
Jiangsu University, China; Email:qinhongmao@sina.com; PH: (0)13655286297
3
Li ZHANG, Master student, School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Jiangsu
University, China;
4
Peng WANG, PhD student, School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Jiangsu
University, China;
5
Shi-liang SONG, Master student, School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,
Jiangsu University, China;

ABSTRACT
According to the characteristics of urban road intersection, a probability index,
namely Reliability, was introduced to study the analysis and optimizing design
theory of urban road intersection based on reliability analysis theory; meanwhile, a
optimizing design model of urban intersection was proposed with the
Numerical-approaching method，which could transform probabilistic constraint to
deterministic constraint. The comparison of the proposed method versus a traditional
Monte Carlo method was applied to a case study of X-urban intersection. The results
show that the proposed model makes the calculation more efficient and easy.

With the continued expansion of the modern city and the amount of car
ownership, the amount of urban internal transport is also increasing dramatically. As
a result, environmental pollution and traffic accident caused by traffic congestion are
growing rapidly. Therefore, it is necessary to propose new requirements for urban
road management.
Current evaluation methods of road traffic running are mainly limited to static
parameters, e.g., degree of saturation, congestion level, and occupancy，which are
non-probability measure parameters. However, transportation system is a large
dynamic system and the actual road capacity and traffic demand are constantly
changing, due to various factors. It is necessary that establishing a probabilistic
assessment index to evaluate the urban road system state. This paper presents the
urban road intersection optimizing theory based on reliability analysis to solve traffic
system optimization problems.
Reliability is defined as the probability of required function or mission under
required conditions. [1] As a probabilistic index, reliability can be more accurate and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 497
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comprehensive to evaluate the situation of urban road intersections and the stability
of load system. Moreover, the operational quality of transportation system can be
inspected by the index, as the basis for urban intersection management and design. It
is more effective and practical than the deterministic index used in the past.
1. THE MODELl OF URBAN ROAD INTERSECTION RELIABILITY
1.1 Reliability calculation model
Reliability Analysis, the opposite of which is fault or failure, can be
quantitatively analyzed by mathematical methods of probability. [2][3] The research
of reliability is to study the probability of failure, and the external conditions of fault
and malfunction are all random events. Therefore, the reliability problem can be well
dealt with probability. Equation 1 shows the general mathematical model that is used
to present reliability.

W = ∫( ) f ( X )dX
g x >0
x (1)

( )
Where X = the basic random variables ( X = X 1 , X 2 , X 3 ,  X n ), and f ( X )
T

g(X )
= Joint probability distribution function; =Failure surface, with failure
occurring when g(x) <0.
According to the reliability model, the reliability of approach lane and
intersection can be calculated by the intersection traffic capacity.
WrA = ∑ Wri qi / ∑ qi
i (2)
Wr = ∑ WrA q A / ∑ q A (3)
A

Where WrA is the reliability of approach A; Wri is the reliability of approach

A lane(group) i ; qi is the Peak Hour Traffic Flow of lane (group) i ; Wr is

reliability of intersection; q A is Peak Hour Traffic Flow of approach A.

1.2 Model Correction
Physical factors and transport properties of urban intersections also have
influence on intersection capacity. Considering the importance of factors and the
extent of factors qualified, Lane-width, rate of heavy vehicle, slope and merging lane
are taken as correction factors to modify the reliability model, which is given by;
WrA' = WrA × f ( g i ) (4)

'
( )
Where WrA = the reliability of approach A after correction; f g i =
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correction factor which affects the approaches traffic capacity.

(1) The correction factor of lane-width

 0.4(W − 0.5) 2.7 ≤ W ≤ 3.0

f (W ) =  1 3.0 < W ≤ 3.5 (5)
0.05(W + 16.5) W > 3.5

Where W is the lane-width, m.
(2)The correction factor of rate of heavy vehicle

f (HV ) =
100
(6)
100 + HV (2 / HV − 1) × 100
Where HV = the rate of heavy vehicle.
(3)The correction factor of grade of slope
G
f (G )= 1 − (7)
2
Where G is the transverse slope of road. G =0,when the grade of the slope is
less than 0.
(4)The merging correction factor
=
f (TL ) ( qT + qL ) / qT' (8)

qT' = K L q L + qT (9)

Where f (TL) is the straight-left merging correction factor; qT is the straight

turn traffic flow in the merging lane ( pcu / h ) ; q L is the left turn traffic flow in the

merging lane ( pcu / h ) ; K L is the left turn factor in the merging lane.

The straight-right merging correction factor and left-right merging correction

factor are similar to f (TL) .

2. OPTIMIZING DESIGN THEORY OF URBAN INTERSECTION

RELIABILITY
2.1 Optimization model of urban intersection reliability based on Numerical-
approaching method
In urban intersection design, the requirement of reliability is as follows:

W = ∫( ) f ( X )dX = P{g ( X ) > 0} ≥ W

g x >0
X 0
(10)
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Where W0 is the criteria of design requirement reliability. [4][5]

In Equation (10), if the joint probability density function of the state

function g ( x ) is given, and probabilistic constraint of reliability can be transformed

into deterministic constraint, the reliability will be calculated. However, the joint

probability density function of g ( x ) is difficult to be determined based on current

theoretical approaches. Even the probability distribution is approximately given;
reliability or failure probability is difficult to be obtained due to complex integral
calculation. Thus, a Numerical-approaching method is used in this paper to calculate
the reliability, which can transform probabilistic constraint into deterministic
constraint. The detailed methods as follows:

Suppose that any random variable X , the mean is u x , the variance is σ x ;

When λ ≥ 0 , we have that
{
P x ≤ µ x − λσ x = ∫ } µ x − λσ c

−∞
f ( x )dx
(11)
For any random variable X , we have that
µ x − λσ x +∞
∫ f ( x )dx ≤ ∫ f ( x )dx (12)
−∞ −∞

x ≤ µ x − λσ x ⇔
( x − µ )2 ≥1 (13)
λ 2σ x 2
From Equation (11), Equation (12) and Equation (13)，we obtain the following
Equation (14)
µ x − λσ x µ x − λσ x ( x − µ x )2 +∞ (x − µ )2 f (x )dx = σ x2
f ( x )dx ≤ ∫ f ( x )dx ≤ ∫
1
∫−∞ −∞
λ 2σ x 2 −∞
λ 2σ x 2 λ σx λ
2 2
= 2
(14)
From Equation (11) and Equation (14)，we obtain the following Equation (15)
and Equation (16)

{
P x ≤ µ x − λσ x ≤ } 1
λ2 (15)

{
P x ≥ µ x − λσ x ≥ 1 − } 1
λ2 (16)
As a corollary, if the state function is g(x), we will obtain Equation (17)
P{g ( x ) ≥ µ x − λσ x } ≥ 1 − 2
1
(17)
λ
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 1 
W0 = 1 −  2 
If µ x − λσ x = 0 and  λ  , Equation (10) and Equation (17) have
exactly the same form. Thus, if any random variable, with the existence of the mean

and variance, there is always a Real number λ which can satisfy Equation (11), once

the Real number λ can be determined, probabilistic constraint will be transformed

into deterministic constraint，as follows：
µ x − λσ x ≥ 0 (18)

2.2 Determination of λ
The probability density function of the state function is changing continuously
with characteristic parameters of random design variables constantly close to the
optimal value, in the optimization process. The Numerical-approaching method for
λ is used to make sure the equivalence of Equation (10) and Equation (17),

λi (k +1) = λ(i k ) + ∆λ(i k ) ， λ = 0，

1，2 (19)
Detailed procedures as follows:

(1)Assume that k = 0 ( k denotes the iteration number). Select an appropriate

(0 )
initial value λi and the optimizing design initial. Calculate the mean and variance

of the state function g i ( x ) according to the mean and variance of each basic random

parameter;
(2)Transform probabilistic constraint into deterministic constraint by Equation
(0 )
(18) with the approximate value λi , and obtain the corresponding optimal design
point by optimizing design.
x
(3)At the optimum design point, obtain the actual reliability Wi by simulation
calculation with the stochastic simulation method.

(4)Judge whether the equation satisfies the requirement ( 0 ≤ Wi − Wi ≤ ε i ),

x 0

where ε i is the allowable minimum error. If satisfies, end loop; Else, assume
( k +1)
that k = k + 1 , λi = λ(i k ) + ∆λ(i k ) , then go to step (2).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 501
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2.3 Selection of the initial value and step size

In the process of reliability optimizing design by the Numerical-approaching
method, optimization calculation and stochastic simulation test are needed in each
iteration. Thus, the key of improving computation efficiency and reducing the
iteration number is to reasonably select the initial value and step size. From the
Central Limit Theorem, the state function g ( x ) is asymptotic normal distribution.

Then the initial value λ(i 0 ) and step size ∆λ(i 0 ) can be selected as follows：

λ(i 0 ) = α i β i0 = α i Φ (Wi 0 ) (20)

Wi 0 − Wi x
∆λ(i λ ) = bi ×
φ (β i0 ) (21)

Where Wi is the reliability of design requirement; β i is the reliability index

0 0

corresponding to
Wi 0 ,when obey Standard Normal Distribution; Wi x is the actual

reliability tested by stochastic simulation.

For the specific practical problems, the state function g ( x ) asymptotically

obey normal distribution with different degrees，because of different distributive
pattern and number of the basic random parameters. Thus, through regulating the

value of ai and bi , the initial value and step size will be more suitable. Under

common circumstance, value of ai and bi are from 0 to 1.

3. CASE STUDY
According to statistics of the actual situation, the traffic problem of X-urban
intersection is most serious. Thus, this paper select one signalized X-urban
intersection as example, as shown in Figure 1. Geometric parameters, signal
parameters and flow parameters are shown in Table 1 and Table 2.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 502
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Figure 1. One signalized X-Urban Intersection.

Table 1. The Geometric Parameters of X-Intersection.
Approach Slope Right
Turn Lanes Lane-width(m) Note
direction (%) radius(m)
Left 1 3.25 0.076
East-
Straight 3 3.25 0.076 23
bound
Right 0 0 0
Left 1 3.25 0.048
West- Straight 3 3.25 0.048 23
bound Right 0 0 0
Left 2 3.5 0.619
South-
Straight 2 3.75 0.619 23
bound
Right 0 0 0
Left 2 3.5 0.82
North-
Straight 2 3.75 0.82 23
bound
Right 0 0 0

Table 2. The Signal Parameters and Flow parameters of X-Urban Intersection.

Peak
Green hour Mean Rate of
Approach Signal Green
Turn time traffic square heavy
direction period ratio
(s) flow error vehicle
(pcu/h)
Left 130 29 0.20 35 8.2 0.122
East-
Straight 120 29 0.28 246 17.3 0.084
bound
Right 0 0 0.28 583 22.6 0.106
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Left 131 29 0.20 364 20.2 0.075

West-
Straight 131 29 0.28 197 17.5 0.097
bound
Right 0 0 0 0 0 0
Left 131 29 0.18 304 21.5 0.081
South-
Straight 130 29 0.18 304 21.5 0.081
bound
Right 0 0 0 0 0 0
Left 131 29 0.34 422 23.7 0.141
North-
Straight 131 29 0.34 479 25.6 0.054
bound
Right 0 0 0 0 0 0

3.1 Reliability calculation with Numerical-approaching method

The reliability calculation results of lane groups, approaches and intersection are
all listed in Table 3, with Numerical-approaching method.
Table 3. Reliability Calculation with Numerical-approaching Method.
Approach Lane group Approach Intersection
Turn
direction reliability reliability reliability
Left 1
Eastbound Straight 0.8781 0.8253
Right 0
Left 0.3105
Westbound Straight 0.8245 0.6167
Right 0
0.6473
Left 0.1745
Southbound Straight 0.1763 0.1835
Right 0
Left 0.5601
Northbound Straight 0.5728 0.7046
Right 0

3.2 Reliability calculation with Monte-Carlo method

In order to verify usefulness of the above reliability optimization model,
Monte-Carlo method, widely applied to related probability issues, [6] [7] is used to
calculate. Based on statistical sampling theory, Monte-Carlo, the principle of which
is Bernoulli law of large numbers, can estimate and describe the statistics of the
function through random variables by random sample.
The reliability calculation results of lane groups, approaches and intersection are
listed in Table 4, with Monte-Carlo method.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 504
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Table 4. Reliability Calculation with Monte-Carlo Method.

Approach Lane group Approach Intersection
Turn
direction reliability reliability reliability
Left 1
Eastbound Straight 0.9010 0.7944
Right 0
Left 0.4022
Westbound Straight 0.8370 0.6319
Right 0
0.6571
Left 0.1740
Southbound Straight 0.1740 0.1751
Right 0
Left 0.5114
Northbound Straight 0.5542 0.6802
Right 0

From Table 3 and Table 4, we can draw a conclusion that:

(1)The reliability calculation results of lane groups, approaches and intersection
by the Numerical-approaching method are similar, to some extent, to the one by the
traditional method (Monte-Carlo). But the former one transforms probabilistic
constraint into deterministic constraint, making calculation more concise and the
operation much easier. Especially in the large sample case, the method will be more
efficient.
(2) There is one lane group with the lane group reliability and approach
reliability less than 0.2 and two groups with the three values less than 0.8. The
intersection reliability is little more than 0.5, which demonstrates its lower reliability
and adaptability. Especially when the reliability of southbound approach is less than
0.2, it’s necessary to take some measures to improve its reliability.
(3) The reliability of some lane groups are very small, there are two reasons for
that: First, the model itself have certain error; Second, when degree of the urban
intersection saturation is approximate to 1, or even greater than 1, the delay time of
vehicles increased dramatically, that is, once congestion occurs at the intersection,
the delay time will increase exponentially, leading to rapidly decreasing of its
reliability.
4. CONCLUSION
Because of the static faults of traditional design indexes, one probability index
(Reliability) was introduced to study the analysis and optimizing design theory of the
urban road intersection.
The Numerical-approaching method, which can transform probabilistic
constraint into deterministic constraint, is proposed to make the calculation more
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 505
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concise and the operation much easier in the solution of reliability model. Compared
with the traditional method (Monte-Carlo), numerical results show that the proposed
model is in line with the actual situation, and could be a new design theory and
method to cope with the traffic problems better.

REFERENCES
Hauschild.J, Meyna.A. Safety and Reliability for Managing Risk[J], v1, p 695-702, 2006,
Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference 2006, ESREL 2006 -
Safety and Reliability for Managing Risk.
Iida Y, Wakabayshi H. An approximation method of terminal reliability of a road
network using partial minimal path and cut set[J]. Processing of the 5th
VCTR, Yokohama, 1989:367～380.
Liwei AN. Stochastic structural system reliability analysis and optimal design[M].
Harbin: Harbin Engineering University Press 2005(4): 14-44.
Linfan MAO. Bilevel programming model for the reliability of public transportation
system[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2002，15(3): 88～91.
Qiang LI, Chang-sheng GUAN, Wu ZHOU. Reliability analysis of Landslide
stability by Monte-Carlo method[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics
and Engineering, 2001，20(Supplement)：1674—1676.
Tao LU, Fei CHEN. The intersection optimization design based on the reliability
analysis of city network[J]. Journal of highway and transportation system
research and development, 2008, 21(2):150-153.
Yanyan CHEN, Yin LIANG, Hua-bing DU. The application of reliability in the road
network performance evaluation[J]. China Civil Engineering Journal, 2003，
36（1）：36～40.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 506
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Technology Research on Accident Prevention on Black Spots Based on Dynamic

Traffic Flow Monitoring

Jianping GAO 1, Lingqi LI 2, Dong SHAO3, Zhuo ZHANG 4, and Xuejia CHEN 5
1
Professor, Dean of Road Engineering, School of Civil & Architecture, Chongqing
Jiaotong University, 66#, Xuefu Ave., Chongqing, 400074, China; PH:
(86)(23)62652960, mobil:13637901962; e-mail: Jianping@cquc.edu.cn
2
Master degree student, School of Civil & Architecture, Chongqing Jiaotong
University; e-mail: lilingqi2004@163.com
3
Engineer, Chongqing Expressway Group Co., Ltd. 66#, Yinshan Ave., Chongqing,
401121, China; e-mail: Shaodong2008@vip.sina.com
4
Associate Professor, School of Civil & Architecture, Chongqing Jiaotong Uni., 66#,
Xuefu Ave., Chongqing, 400074, China; e-mail: zhangzhuotj@163.com
5
Master degree student, School of Civil & Architecture, Chongqing Jiaotong
University; e-mail: xuejia859@yahoo.cn

ABSTRACT
Black spots are inevitable on expressways, and improving the level of safety
service is a key issue in expressway operation. Since road safety improvement by
engineering manners showed the limitations of the high cost, the development of
intelligent transportation technology has made accident prevention on expressway
black spots possible. Based upon identification of expressway black spots, safety
evaluation of traffic condition as well as the analysis of accident processes, this paper
divides Accident-prone locations into two categories, locates the accident precursors
of black spots and extracts the characteristic variables of forewarning accidents so as
to set up a computational model of DMS’s setting, brings forward the principles of
information distribution and designs a data base of accident prevention. Finally, it
establishes the accident prevention system of expressway black spots composed of
traffic information collection, risk status judgment, pre-warning information
distribution and communication.

INTRODUCTION
According to the investigation on the expressway operational safety in our
country, black spots are inevitable in all expressway projects. There is a strong
association between dynamic traffic condition and the occurrence of an accident, so
it can prevent accident occurrence efficiently by monitoring the dynamic traffic,
assessing the safety of real-time traffic condition and managing dynamic traffic.

BLACK SPOTS IDENTIFICATION AND RANKING

Equivalent accident calculation model
When identified the black spots, the standard for identification can not only
reflect the number of accidents, but also reflect the degree of accidents severity.
Taking the expressway accidents logs and social economic data of Chongqing as the
baseline, this paper developed the equivalent accident calculation model of
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Chongqing according to the principle of equal economic loss.

N 41.20 F  10.73S  2.43M  P
Where,
N : number of equivalent accidents happened on the analyzed road section;
F , S , M , P ˖number of fatal accidents, serious injury accidents, minor injury
accidents and property losses accidents, respectively.
This model was used to calculate the equivalent number of accidents
happened on the total expressway.
Black spots identification
Considering that expressway managers often collect information like location
of each crash occurrence using per hundred meters as statistical unit, in this study it
used one hundred meters as basic length to divide road cells, selected proper
accidents rate F0 as identification criteria according to the overall situation of
expressway safety, and used 20 meters as the moving step length to calculate the
number of equivalent accidents and the corresponding accidents rate F ; then, if
F t F0 assumed the analyzed road unit as black spot, and determined the correct
location of black spots by moving the analyzed road unit; finally, ranked the black
spots with the equal accident rate.

calculate the equivalent accident

rate of basic analyzed road unit

freeway basic analyzed

starting point moving road unit freeway
20m 100m end point
moving step length basic analyzed road unit length

Figure 1. Black spots identification using moving step method.

CATEGORIES OF BLACK-SPOTS
The classification of black spots is beneficial to find out the internal pattern
of the black spots formation, development, and seeking more efficiency
countermeasures to improve safety. According to the research on present situation of
black spots on expressway in our country, the classification methods proposed in this
paper and the results are presented in the Table 1 below.
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Table 1. Black spots classification methods.

Black spots classification basis Categories
Tangent related accident
Horizontal curve related accident
Road alignment
Up grade or down grade related accident
Combination of curve and grade related accident
Single vehicle accident
Collision cars
Multi-vehicles accident
Fine day related accident
Foggy related accident
Weather
Rainy related accident
Ice or snow related accident
Fixed object accident
Main accident type
Rear-end accident
The accident prevention research based on the dynamic traffic flow
monitoring should analyze the character of black spots according to the main
accident type.

TRAFFIC CONDITION SAFETY EVALUATION OF EXPRESSWAY

Selection of model variables
Referenced to several years’ study on the relationship between traffic flow
characteristic parameters and road traffic safety by specialists and scholars all over
the world, and taking into account the states of expressway management, this study
selected four traffic parameters as independent variables in evaluation model after
analyzing practical investigated data of several expressway in our country: (1) the
traffic volume over period of five minutes in the studied road section; (2) the average
speed; (3) the coefficient of variation of speed difference; (4) environment factors
(such as sun, snow, rain, etc.). Two coefficients of variation of speed difference are
used in the model: the coefficient of variation of speed on each lane ( s v1 ), and the
s
coefficient of variation of speed across adjacent lanes ( v2 ).
To illustrate the influence of adverse weather on road safety, we defined the
level of s v1 and s v2 based on the analyzed changing character of s v1 and s v2
under different weather, as is shown in Table 2.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 509
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Table 2. Analysis of s v1 and s v2 related coefficient.

variable level value level standards
low 0 SV10.12
O SV 1 intermediate 1 0.12<SV10.2
high 2 SV10.2
low 0 SV20.45
OSV 2 intermediate 1 0.45<SV20.7
high 2 SV20.7
good 0 fine weather (sun, cloudy)
OW
bad 1 disaster weather (rain, snow, foggy)

Model development
To evaluate the traffic performance safety of expressway, an aggregate
log-linear model is developed in the following functional form:

ln( F ) D 0  D1 ln(5 u 106 Q 3  0.0083Q 2  4.2575Q  747.41)

D 2 ln Va  E1OSV1  E 2OSV 2  JOW
Where,
F : the expected accident rate per 100 million vehicle kilometers;
D 0 , D1 , D 2 , E1 , E 2 , J : undetermined constant;
O SV 1 : effect of the traffic flow variable s v1 having certain levels, referring to
the table 2;
O SV 2 : effect of the traffic flow variable s v2 having certain levels, referring to
the table 2;
OW : effect of the weather having certain levels, referring to the table 2;
Q : the traffic volume over period of observation time slice duration
't (vehicle/hour), 't =5 minutes;
Va : average speed computed over period of 't (km/hour).
To calibrate the proposed model, the study used traffic flow data extracted
from the observed data along several expressways in our country and statistics theory.
The expected accident rate is estimated by the following equation.

F 1.534 u10 3 u ( 5 u106 Q 3  0.0083Q 2  4.2575Q  747.41) 0.128 u Va 2.267

0.181O  0.27 O  0.096 O
ue SV 1 SV 2 W

Where, the meaning of every variable is the same as the above function.

Establishment of evaluation standard of traffic condition safety

As for the safety assessment of the on-time traffic, this paper presented
driving risk as a surrogate measure. For this purpose, by definition the driving risk
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index is one when Q =500pcu/h, Va =80km/h, OSV 1 0, OSV 2 0, OW 0 over the

analysis time, the driving risk index under other traffic flow conditions can be
calculated as follows:

F F
TRI
F Q 500,V 80,OSV 1 0,OSV 2 0, OSW 0
53
where, TRI : the driving risk index of expressway.
Then, based on the driving risk index and the collected incident logs of
expressway, evaluation standard of traffic performance safety was established as
shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Evaluation standard of expressway traffic performance safety.

Driving risk index of expressway Safety grades
TRI 3.0 Good
3.0˘ TRI ˘4.0 Fair
TRI 4.0 Poor

ACCIDENT PREVENTION TECHNOLOGY FOR BLACK-SPOTS

Structure of accident prevention system of expressway black spots
The accident prevention system (APS) of expressway black spots is
composed of data collection, risk status judgment, pre-warning information
distribution and communication. The structure of the system can be illustrated as
shown in Figure 2.
Traffic detector
Traffic condition
Collection
Weather detector
Data collection Weather condition in time and
Weather forecast
accurately
APS of expressway black spots

Pavement condition
Pavement detector
Accident prevention
Communication
Speed limit
Pre-warning Judgment accurately
Lane control Make corresponding
Risk status judgment
measures
Speed limit
Traffic control
Traffic guidance
Communication

Information
Information distribution distribution in time
and effectively
Figure 2. Accident Prevention System of Expressway Black Spots.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 511
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Traffic information collection

According to the previous relative literatures, the accident prevention system
of expressway black spots adopts fixed traffic detector as traffic detector, installed
along the black spots of expressway with spacing 500m~1000m. The study shows
that the optimum distance between loop detectors is 500m when it meets the need of
traffic data precision and economic requirements. In addition, to improve the
reliability and real-time performance, it is necessary to add video detector in the
middle of the black spots. Then the traffic managers could confirm whether and
where the accident occurs through the video images in time.
The system used pavement detector and weather detector (slight inspector,
environment detector, etc.) to collect the road and weather information, and these
detectors distribution must be combined with the need of expressway monitor
system.

Pre-warning Information Distribution

The main approach of pre-warning information distribution is
DMS—Dynamic Messages Sign.
Location of DMS
When determined the location of DMS, it could be ensured that the drivers
have adequate time to perceive and understand the displayed message, and take
accurate actions after making a decision according to the displayed message;
therefore, the hazardous driving conditions would turn into safe before an accident
happened. However, the accident locations in police records are not (usually) the real
accident locations but the actual accident vehicles stopped positions after a series of
actions such as braking and slipping. Actually, the future occurrence of a crash can
be anticipated on the basis of hazardous traffic flow conditions that are present prior
to the occurrence of the crash. This study refers to the traffic conditions that exist
prior to the occurrence of accident as “accident precursors”. The locations of
accident precursor are the real accident locations.
4.3.1.1 Location of accident precursors
The location of accident precursors is determined by analyzing the type of
accidents, the accident process and the traveling track of accident vehicles.
According to the accident form, the main accidents types of expressway black spots
are fixed object accidents and rear-end accidents.
(1) location of fixed object accidents precursors
The fixed object accidents mainly refer to those vehicles’ collisions with
median barriers or roadside barriers. The driver’s negligence or fatigue driving leads
to the car’s deviation from the correct traveling track and the rush towards the
roadside. Due to too high speed of the car, the unprepared driver, though realizing the
potential of accident, is unable to alter the driving direction. Then the car is out of
control and an accident occurs.
The process of the fixed object accidents and the traveling track of accident
vehicles are shown in Figure 3.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 512
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Record Accident precursors location

Point of vehicle out of control
accident location
Distance S 2 D istance S 1

H ard shoulder

Impact angle ¢ Lane

Lane

Lane

M edian barrier

Figure 3. Process of fixed object accidents.

The vehicle traveling distance passing the accident precursor’s location is

calculated as shown following:
t O
s (t ) ³³
0 0
a(W )dW d O  vt
Because of the high speed of the car passing the accident precursors location
and the minor angle of declination when the car’s running off road, the variation of
vehicle lateral speed has an small impact on the travelling speed, in consideration of
which, to simplify the calculation, it is supposed that accident vehicles are travelling
with uniform acceleration from the precursors location till the out-of-control
location.
The distance S between the location of accidents precursors and the accidents
location can be calculated using the following equation:
1 L
s v u (t1  t0 )  u a u (t1  t0 )2  d
2 tan D
where,
v : the speed of accident vehicle passing the accident precursors, assumed to the v95
of the road section by practical measuring or calculatingˈm/s;
t0 , t1 : time of vehicle passing the accident precursors location and the out-of-control
location, respectively;
a : the vehicle’s acceleration travelling from the accident precursors location to the
out of control location, m/s2;
Ld : the width of the expressway hard shoulder, m;
D : the impact angle, °.
(2) location of rear-end accidents precursors
On the basis of the classic car-following theory, when the vehicle-to-vehicle
distance is shorter than the safe car-following distance, a rear-end accident may occur.
Hence it can be assumed that the rear-end accidents precursor appears, and the
location of rear-end accidents precursors can also be determined by calculating the
critical safe car-following distance.
The calculation of the critical safe car-following distance adopts the UTSC-1
MODEL. The basic concept of this model is that the driver of the following vehicle
starts to decelerate to prevent collision with the frontal vehicle after the reaction time
T as he exactly determine that the frontal vehicle took measures to emergency
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braking. The critical deceleration of the followed vehicle without the occurrence of
collision can be expressed by Equation followed:
a n1 {7[ X n (t )  X n 1 (t )  v n1 (t )T  L]  [2v n (t ) 2  3v n 1 (t ) 2 ] / 6}[v n1 (t )  3]
Deforming this Equation, the critical safe car-following distance can be
calculated using the following expression:
2v (t )2  3vn1 (t )2 ½
s ^an1 />vn1 (t )  3@  n
>
¾ / 7  L  vn1 (t )
@
6 ¿
Where,
ac : the critical deceleration of the followed vehicle to avoid collision, according to
investigation that the maximum deceleration of braking vehicle isn’t more than
8m/s2, ac 8m / s 2 ;
v n (t ) , vn1 (t ) : the speed of the frontal vehicle, the followed vehicle, respectively;
X n (t ) , X n 1 (t ) : the space position of the frontal vehicle, the followed vehicle,
respectively;
T: the driver’s reaction time, generally T =1s;
L: the safe parking space, which is 0.5~1.5m.
4.3.1.2 The space from DMS to the accident precursors of black spots
Based on the Stimulate(S)-Organism(O)-Response(R) Model, this study divided
the driver’s DMS information processing process into Perception stage, Decision
stage and Action stage. So the process of DMS identify when driving is shown in
Figure 4.
$FWXDOVSDFHIURP'06WRWKH
DFFLGHQWSUHFXUVRUV'FU DMS range of visibility 'H
Theoretical space from DMS to the
accident precursors 'F DMS

Blank spots Disappeared angle ¢

7   4 3  
Safety distance
'V Action distance 'D Decision distance 'G Perception distance Dp

No. Name No. Name

1 Finding point 5 Action start point
2 Reading start point 6 Action end point
3 Reading end point 7 Accident precursors location
4 Vanishing point

Figure 4. Sketch map of DMS location calculation.

The minimum DMS range of visibility: Dr D p  ('H , S ) / tgD

DMS range of visibility: De t Dr
Theoretic space from DMS to the accident precursors of black spots:
Dc D p  D d  D a  D e
Actual space from DMS to the accident precursors of black spots:
Dcr Dc  D s
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 514
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The meanings of those symbols are shown in Figure 4. Where, D p is the

perception distance of DMS and calculated as D p vt p , and v is the vehicle
traveling speed(m/s), and the limited speed when calculating, t p is the perception
time, t p 5s ; D is the disappeared angle, is 15° for roadside DMS and 7° for
overhead DMS; H is the clear height of DMS and assumed to be 5 or 5.5 m; the
lateral distance of roadside DMS is 7̚8.5m(4 lanes); Dd vt d , where t d is the
decision time including the driver’s response time; is the action distance, which
depends on the traffic management measure such as stopping, changing lane, etc.;
Ds is the safety distance and proposed to be 50̚100m.
According to the above analysis, the minimum space from DMS to the
accident precursors of black spots is Dmin S  Dcr .

Information data base of accidents prevention system of the black spots

DMS- Dynamic Message Sign proves to be primary facility of expressway
information distribution. According to the functions of black spots prevention system,
pre-warning messages are distributed while the traffic condition of the black spots is
hazardous, warning the drivers to avoid the accident. And general messages are
distributed in good traffic condition. In appliance with the principle of accurate,
timely, comprehensible and effective information distribution of DMS, an accident
prevention information database for the black spots prevention system in black spots
is established including general messages, prompting messages, mandatory messages
as well as the emergency or urgent messages.
The published information is different for the different types and forming
reasons of the black spot. Content of the accident prevention information data base
for different accident types is shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Accident prevention information database for different accident

types.
Classified method of black spots type Content of information data base
Long downhill, Slow down
Tangent Steep slop, Slow down
Accident black-spots, Caution
Road alignment Ban fatigue driving
Curves Curve section, Slow down
Curve section, No overtaking
Combination Accident area, Slow down
of curve and Black spots Location, Navigate with
Single vehicle Slow down
Number of collision
accident Accident area, Speed limit( )
cars Multi-vehicles Keep Space( )
accident Keep space, Don’t follow too closely
Weather condition Rain Rainy, Caution
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 515
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Surface wet for rain, Slow down

Surface skidding, Don’t nail the brakes
Surface hydrops, Slow down
Foggy area, Slow down
Fog ahead, Navigate with caution
Fog Thick Fog ahead, Speed limit( )km/h
Foggy, Speed limit( ), Keep space( )
Poor visibility, Light-up and slow down
Driving in fog, Turn on fog lamp
Surface skidding for snowing, Slow down
Surface wetting & skidding, Don’t nail the
Snow Snowing, Caution
Heavy/Moderate /Light snow,
Packed Snow, Don’t nail the brakes
Icy road, Slow down
Ice Icy road, Don’t nail the brakes
Keep distance, Slow down
Torrid weather, Don’t fatigue driving
High
Torrid weather, Caution sunstroke
Temperature Surface hi-temp, Prevent flat tire
No speeding
Keep space, Prevent rear-end
rear-end Speed limit( ), Distance limit( )
Slow down, Keep space
Accident type No speeding
fixed object Accident area, Navigate with caution
Cargo scattered ahead ,Careful avoidance
flat tire Torrid weather, Prevent flat tire
Hi-Speed & hi-temp may lead to flat tire

Table 5. Prompting information for black spots over a particular period of

time.
NO. Content NO. Content
Torrid weather, Prevent flat
1 Slow down at dusk 7
tire
2 Navigate with caution at dusk 8 Today highest temperature(_)°
Poor visibility, Turn off lamp
3 9 Torrid weather, rest
latter
Day break drowsy, Drive Hi-Speed & hi-temp may lead
4 10
carefully to flat tire
Slow down in night, Drive
5 11 Easy spring storm, Rest
carefully
6 Don’t fatigue driving in night 12 If fatigue, Go to rest area
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 516
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CONCLUSION
With the prevention of accidents on black spots of the expressway as its final
goal, a frame diagram of black spots prevention system relying on the real-time
traffic stream monitoring is put forward based on the identification of black spots as
well as the expressway traffic condition safety evaluation. According to the accident
type, this paper defines the accident precursors location of both fixed object accident
and rear-end accident, sets up a computational model of DMS’s setting, brings
forward the principles of information distribution and finally designs a information
database for accident prevention. The application of safety improvement on black
spots one western expressway helps to decrease the accident rate by 33% on average,
thus achieving sound results.

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Guo Zhong-yin, Fang Shou-en (2003). “Road Safety Engineering.” People's
Communications Publishing House, Beijing.
Hourdakis J., Garg V. (2006) “Real-time Detection of Crash Prone Conditions in
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of Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2006.
Hu Gong-hong. (2008) “Research on Traffic Performance Safety Evaluation and
Countermeasure of Expressway.” Chongqing. 2008.
Jia Cui-ping. (2008) “Analyze and Simulation Research of Vehicle Colliding With
Expressway Concrete Guardrail Accidents.” Wuhan, 2008.
Jia Hong-Fei, Si Yin-Xia, Tang Ming. (2006) “Study Oil Driver’S Infom~tion
Processing Pattern Based on the Cognitive Psycholog.” China Safety
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Lee, C., B. Hellinga, and F. Saccomanno. (2003) “Real-Time Crash Prediction Model
for the Application to Crash Prevention in Expressway Traffic.” Presented at
the 82th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, Washington,
D.C., 2003.
Lee, C., F. Saccomanno, and B. Hellinga. (2002) “Analysis of Crash Precursors on
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M.Abdel-Aty and A.Pande. (2004) “Classification of Real-time Traffic Speed
Patterns to Prediction Crashes On Expressways.” 83rd Annual Meeting of
Transportation Research Board, Washinton, D.C., 2004
Oh, C., J. Oh, S. Ritchie, and M. Chang. (2001) “Real-Time Estimation of
Expressway Accident Likelihood.” Presented at the 80th Annual Meeting of
Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2001.
Pei Yu-long, Cheng Guo-zhu. (2004) “Research on The Relationship Between
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Thomas F. GolobˈWilfred W. ReckerˈVeronica M. Alvarez , (2004) “Expressway

safety as a function of traffic flow.” Accident Analysis and Prevention.
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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 518
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Road Environment Monotony Evaluation Based on

MPEG Compression Technique
Kejun MAO , Xiaohua ZHAO2, Jian RONG, Linjia SU, Guan WEI
1

1
Beijing Key Lab of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, 100124,
Beijing, China; PH (86)010-67396182; FAX (86)010-67391509; email: howisfly@
emails.bjut.edu.cn
2
Beijing Key Lab of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing
100124, China; PH: (86)010-67390918; FAX: (86)010-67390918; email:
zhaoxiaohua@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Road environment monotony is a critical exogenous cause of driving fatigue.
According to the definition of monotony, the MPEG compression technique was
used to obtain the change of road environment and the related parameters of this
technique were discussed. Considering drivers’ most meaningful information (MMI),
the driver observation region was divided into three regions. Each region was given a
different weight based on gazing time (or gazing frequency), and the new method of
road environment change calculation combined with drivers’ observation region was
introduced. The mean of environment change was considered as the road
environment monotony measurement, and the location identification method of road
environment larger change (or stimulation points) was given. The method of
evaluating the road environment has been proven to be feasible in the in-field
experiment. It is also the basis of researching road environment monotony levels and
monotony improvement countermeasures in the future.

1. INTRODUCTION
Driving fatigue is one of the causes of fatal traffic accidents. In America, the
National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) indicated 31% of fatal truck accidents
related to drivers were caused by driver fatigue（Philippa et al.，2006. The National
Road Safety Committee reported at least 12% of fatal crashes were caused by driver
fatigue and estimated 24% of all accidents were fatigue-related( Mckemon et al.，
2008. Research undertaken in some Member States in Europe indicated that driver
fatigue was a significant factor in approximately 20% of commercial transportation
crashes; the results from various surveys carried out at different times showed over
50% of long-haul drivers had at some time fallen asleep at the wheel（McDonald et
al.，2001. The results from the Traffic Management Bureau of Police Ministry in
China showed that 14.8% of fatal accidents were caused by driver fatigue.
The factors that effect driver fatigue are complex and can be divided into two
categories: “endogenous” factors and “exogenous” factors（Fletcher et al.，2005).
The endogenous factors influence actions taken before a trip to maximize pre-trip
sleep/rest and to minimize in-trip fatigue, including time of day, sleepiness, time on
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 519
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task and personality. The exogenous factors are related to task, decreased driver
performance, increased driver fatigue during a trip, road geometry, road environment
and task complexity.
In the past, many researchers have focused on the relationship between
“endogenous” factors and vigilance from sleep. Circadian variations, long hours for a
trip and sleep deficits are widely studied as the “endogenous” factors that are
detrimental to vigilance. For a trip, vigilance depends upon the interaction between
“endogenous” factors and “exogenous” factors. The ecological approach points out
that fatigue emerges as a function of the driver/environment relationship in a
particular driving environment. “… [fatigue] is no longer regarded solely as
something within the brain …, it depends of what you are, what you are doing and
where you are doing it” (Nelson et al.，1997).
Road environment monotony is the one of most important exogenous factors
causing a gradual increase in driving fatigue. Monotony is usually defined as when
the sensory stimulation is constant or highly repetitive. Thiffault et al. revealed that
more frequency of larger SWM appeared when driving in the more monotonous road
environments, which implied greater fatigue and vigilance decrements (Thiffault et
al.，2003). The dynamic model of stress and sustained attention was used to explain
the effect of road environment monotony on fatigue. The driver can maintain a
certain level of performance, but the adaptability is poor in between overload and
underload（Desmond，1997）. For underload, Oron-Gild et al. pointed out that
additional perception of the task is a countermeasure to increase the driving task
demand. In line with this research idea, the stimulation interval in the monotony
environment was studied in China. Wang proposed that in a monotonous region, a
single length of landscape was around 5km（Wang，2006）; Jia pointed out that
stimulation setting was related to the traffic speed, and the stimulation interval was
around 5-10 min in the monotonous environment (Jia，2007).
In a monotonous environment, drivers lack attention, have decreased perceptual
sensitivity and feel bored and drowsy coupled with loss of interest in performing the
task at hand. The definition of monotony was introduced in the seventies, but so far
research in this area is still very slow-growing, and most of the research is still using
driving simulators to verify the significant relationship between the road
environment monotony and driver alertness/driver fatigue qualitatively, so it is
develop meaningful countermeasures. Breaks in monotony should nonetheless be
beneficial. It can serve to increase the amount of stimulation or to induce variability.
However, questions arise regarding the form that these breaks or “events” should
take: does simple variation in the rhythm of sensory stimulation have an effect?
Would the addition of visual stimuli in the environment be sufficient to reduce driver
fatigue? What would be the relative importance of the form and the meaning of these
stimuli for the driver（Thiffault et al.，2003）? Research on these issues is based on
reasonable stimulation quantification and the objective evaluation of monotony. At
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present, whether a landscape is monotonous and to what extent are determined

subjectively, and a reasonable evaluation indicator has not been developed.
Despite the success of the existing approaches or systems for extracting
characteristics of a driver, current efforts in this area, however, focus only on using a
single visual cue. The system that relies on a single visual cue may encounter
difficulty when the required visual features cannot be acquired accurately or reliably
（Ji et al.，2004）. For example, EEG is always easily interfered with and is difficult
to detect; ECG signals vary from person to person; driver performances have many
limitations including the vehicle type, driver experiences and driving conditions.
Therefore, for monitoring driver fatigue, we must not only consider one or several
partial indicators, but should also integrate the driver status and vehicle condition, as
well as context information and multi-source data fusion based on non-intrusive
real-time detection systems. The road environment is an important component of
context information, but only after quantitative analysis can it really play its role in
the fatigue detection system.
It is necessary to quantify environment monotony for both the effects of road
environment monotony on fatigue and developing driver detection systems. Fletcher
et al. have proposed using MPEG compression technology to measure the monotony
（Fletcher et al.，2005）. This paper gives the default value of sampling frequency
and sequence length in the MPEG compression technique. Based on the observation
region division by Victor（Victor et al.，2005）, each region was given different
weight in terms of gazing time and the new quantitative method of road environment
monotony based on driving gaze was introduced.

2. PRINCIPLE OF MPEG COMPRESSION AS A MEASURE OF

MONOTONY
Moving Picture Expert Group (MPEG) is an international organization
specializing in developing multi-media video and audio compression coding
standards. MPEG exploits the property that in moving pictures, images actually
change substantially between frames. Briefly, the video sequence is encoded as a
sequence of three kinds of frames in MPEG compression: I-frame, P-frame, and
B-frame. I-frame compression is the intra-frame method, also known as the "key
frame" compression method, based on discrete cosine transform DCT (Discrete
Cosine Transform) compression techniques. P-frames consist of the set of changes
required to modify the previous frame into the current one. The frame consists of a
set of motion vectors detailing how each sub-region of the image has moved between
frames and a correction representing what needs to be done to the previous
sub-region to make it match the current frame. B-frames are similar to P-frames
except both previous and next frames are used to reconstruct the image.
Road environment monotony usually refers to an environment that does not
change or change in a predictable context, namely, if the road environment ahead is
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very easy to predict, by the driver’s perception on environment, the road environment
is monotonous. So the key of monotony evaluation is how to measure the differences
quantitatively in the road environment. MPEG compression technology can be used
to obtain these differences. Impressive compression ratios are achieved by coupling
an effective lossy compression scheme with an update procedure that can efficiently
represent small motions and appearance changes between frames, so when the road
environment changes are greater, the greater difference of the motion compensated
prediction value and the actual pixel value, the greater the compressed file;
accordingly, when the environment changes are less, the corresponding compressed
file is also smaller. MPEG encoding involves the lossy compression, removal of the
time and space redundancy and the effect on the metrics is convenient, as we will
examine.

3. VERIFICATION
This study uses the Qinglin-Zhongnanshan tunnel in the western region of China
as an example. The video lasted for 20 minutes, the sampling rate was 15 frames/s,
and the sequence length (referring to the video length calculated by MPEG encoding)
was 10 seconds. The result is shown in Figure 1. The ordinate is the ratio of the file
sizes in each 10 seconds to that in the first 10 seconds. It is found that this method
can detect road environment stimulation effectively. Five positions of larger file size
correspond to the larger environment changes, particularly entering into the tunnel
after 11 minutes,; the environment change is smaller, but the change became larger at
16 minutes and 19 minutes as a result of the emergence of man-made trees.

1.8

1.6
MPEG size(ratio:file/1st file)

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 80 160 240 320 400 480 560 640 720 800 880 960 1040 1120 1200
time(s)

Figure 1. MPEG compression validation.

4. RELEVANT PARAMETERS SELECTION

To investigate how best to use MPEG encoding to represent monotony, we
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encoded a set of 20min videos varying the sampling rate and sequence length. We
conducted trial samples at frequencies of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 frame/s with sequence
length of 5, 10 and 20s. Figure 2 shows that sampling frequency has a great influence
on the absolute result of compression, but relatively little effect on the relative result,
so the graphics are basically similar when sequence length is fixed, However, the
smaller the sampling frequency, the larger the compression’s absolute result, so the
sampling frequency is proposed as 15 frames / sec. Similarly, sampling frequency
was fixed and the compression results were calculated in the sequence length of 5, 10,
and 20s. In theory, the smaller the sequence length the better, as is reflected in the
road environment change. We recommend a sequence length of 10 s taking into
account the computational problem.
MPEG size(ratio:file/1st file)

6 7

MPEG size(ratio:file/1st file)

5 6

5frame/s 5
4
10frame/s 4 5s length
3 15frame/s 10s length
20frame/s 3 20s length
2 25frame/s 2
1 1

0 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
time(s) time(s)

Figure 2. Compression results with different compression frequency and

sequence length.

5. CONSIDERING DRIVER OBSERVATION REGION CORRECTION

The study has revealed that most drivers spend 80% of their time looking into a
‘forward’ area（Brackstone et al.，2004）and less time looking at other regions.
Therefore, the change of different regions in the driver’s field of vision has a
different influence on driver. The driver's observation region was divided and
corresponding weights ware given to the different regions based on drivers’ gazing
time to achieve the integration of an objective assessment of road environment and
driver's subjective concern region.
In order to analyze the distribution of the driver's observation and process testing
data easily, Victor's regional division method was used (Victor et al., 2005). In the
horizontal direction, a -20 to -10 degree area was defined as the left side of the region,
and a 10- 20 degree region was defined as the right side of the region, and the 20 ×
15 the rectangle area including from (-10。, -7.5。) points to (10。, 7.5。) was defined as
the road center region which was divided into the above region and below region in
the vertical direction, shown in Figure 3.
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(20,20)
above
(10,7.5)

Left region

Right region
Center
region

(-10,-7.5)

below
(-20,-20)

Figure 3. Victor observation region division.

According to the gazing time in different regions, the weights of road center region,
left region, and right region were given as 0.8, 0.1, and 0.1. The Open CV technique
was used to extract and divide the video images. The road environment change was
calculated as the weighted sum of environment change of all regions. Figure 4 shows
the difference between normal and weighted compression. Though the trends are
similar, the environment change was not the same within the length of each sequence.
To 580s-590s periods, for example, a vehicle appeared in front of the road center
region and will turn to enter the section, so environment change of weighted
compression is larger than that of normal compression (shown in Figure 5).
1.2
normal compression
weighted compression
1
MPEG size(ratio: file/1st file)

0.8

0.6

0.4

the results of normal and weighted MPEG

0.2 compression between 580s and 590s

0
300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640
time(s)

Figure 4. The difference between normal and weighted MPEG compression.

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Center
region

Figure 5. Road scene image between 580s and 590s.

6. ROAD ENVIRONMENT MONOTONY EVALUATION METHOD

The evaluation method includes two aspects: the degree of environment
monotony, and the locations of environmental changes (or stimulation). The degree
was evaluated by the mean of road environmental change using MPEG compression
with the duration of the video.
The road environmental monotony evaluation not only needs to know the
degree of road environment change in the evaluation length, but also needs to know
the locations of large environmental changes (or stimulation) in order to improve the
monotony and set up to provide reasonable stimulation points. The formulation is as
follows:

{ xi Î E }
X = xi xi > M + s ， (1)

where： M — The mean of environment change during the evaluation length E ;

xi — The environment change of the i -th sequence length using MPEG

compression technique;
s — The standard deviation of environment change during the evaluation
length E .
Using the video in verification analysis above as an example, the mean of
environment change was calculated as 0.77 within the video of twenty minutes
(averaging the ratio with the file size with the first ten seconds), and the
corresponding locations of larger changes (or stimulation points) are shown as round
areas in Figure 6.
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Figure 6. Road scene monotony evaluation.

7. CONCLUSION
Driving fatigue is determined by the interaction of exogenous and endogenous
factors, and related to not only driver’s status, but also driver characteristics, driving
environment and other factors. The road environment, as an important component of
the exogenous factors, has attracted more attention. The feasibility of the MPEG
compression technique was verified by the video of the Qinling - Zhongnanshan
tunnel, and the default values of sampling frequency and sequence length were given.
Each region was given a different weight in terms of gazing time (or gazing
frequency) using Victor’s observation region division based on drivers’ most
meaningful information (MMI); to some extent the combination of road environment
and driver subjective feeling was achieved. The calculation methods of road
environment monotony evaluation and stimulation point filter were given. We are
clearly given the level of the road environment and stimulation point positions, and
the alternative locations, which are set as stimulation points in order to improve the
road environment. This method provides a theoretical basis for environment
monotony countermeasures.
It needs to be emphasized that the road environment region division should be
more accurate, but in this case, three regions were divided based on Victor’s practice.
Actually, even in the road center area, the process of driver concern is always
changing during driving, so road environment monotony evaluation should be
combined with drivers’ concern points dynamically. Real time evaluation considering
drivers’ concerns deserves further study.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The research was supported by the 2008 Scientific and Technological Innovation
Platform-Study on Driving Error Mechanisms and Countermeasures (JJ
004011200803). We would like to thank the drivers and laboratory technician for
their participation.

REFERENCES
Brackstone M., Waterson B. (2004). Are we looking where we are going? An
exploratory examination of eye movement in high speed driving[C].
Washington D.C., Proceedings of the 82th Annual Meeting of the
Transportation Research Board, 1-20.
Fletcher L., Petersson L., Zelinsky A. (2005). Road scene monotony detection in a
fatigue management driver assistance system[C]. Las Vegas: 2005 IEEE
intelligent vehicles symposium proceedings, 484-489.
Fletcher, A., McCulloch, K., Baulk, S., and Dawson, D. (2005). Countermeasures to
driver fatigue: A review of public awareness campaigns and legal
approaches. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 29(5):
471–476.
Jia Z.Z., Guo Z.Y. (2007). “555” Principle and Its Applications in Highway
Landscape Design[J] Highway, (10):209-212.
Mckernon S., Ltd S. (2008). Driver Fatigue Literature Review[R]. New Zealand: NZ
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McDonald N., Garo C., Hamelin P., Ouwerkerk V.F. (2001). The role of driver
fatigue in commercial road transportation crashes [R]. Brussels: European
Transportation Safety Council.
Nelson, T.M. (1993). Fatigue, mindset and ecology in the hazard dominant
environment. Accident Anal. Prevention 29, 409-415.
Oran-Gilad T., Ronen A., Shinar D. (2008). Alertness maintaining tasks (AMTs)
while driving[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 40:851-860.
Philippa H.G., Nathaniel S.M., Ian J., Lana L.Q. (2006). Investigating Driver Fatigue
in Truck Crashes: Trial of a Systematic Methodology[J]. Transportation
Research Part F, 9(1): 65-76.
Qiang Ji, Zhiwei Zhu, Peilin Lan. (2004). Real-time Nonintrusive Monitoring and
Prediction of Driver Fatigue[J]. IEEE Transactions on Vehicular
Technology, 53(4):1052-1068.
Thiffault P., Bergeron J. (2003). Monotony of road environment and driver fatigue: a
simulator study [J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 35: 381-391.
Victor T.W., Harbluk J.L., Engstrom J.A. (2005). Sensitivity of Eye-movement
Measures to In-vehicle Task Difficulty[J]. Transportation Research Part F,
(8): 167-190.
Victor T.W., Harbluk J.L., Engstrom J.A. (2005). Sensitivity of eye-movement
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 527
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measures to in-vehicle task difficulty[J].Transportation Researeh Part

F,8(2):167-190.
Wang J.J., Lai Y.B., Wang T.J. (2006). Highway Roadside Landscaping Based on
Driver s Visual and Psychological Characteristics[J]. Urban Transportation
of China,4(5):73-77.
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Algorithms for Optimal Driving Speed on the Mainline of a Freeway

Dashan CHEN1 and Keping LI2 and Jian SUN2

1
Room 440, Department of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, 4800
2
Cao’an RD., Shanghai, 201804; PH (086)21-69583656; email: cdsmy@126.com

ABSTRACT
In order to calculate the optimal driving speed on the mainline of a freeway,
factors affecting the speed have been analyzed and prepared. Several methods are
used in the research including the Fuzzy Control Method, the BP Neural Network
Method, the Fuzzy-Neural Network Method and the GA-BP Method. Firstly, the
Multi-Layer Fuzzy Decision system with the optimal speed of fuzzy logic has been
put forward. Then, the neural network model is used to calculate the optimal driving
speed. Finally, another method of GA-BP has been put forward: the neural network is
saved to memory and used to learn the fuzzy rules after the initial weights of the
neural network has been calibrated by the genetic algorithm. It is done in order to
speed up the convergence and to avoid falling into local minimum. The simulation
results show that the methods can address the actual conditions of traffic flow and
make full use of speed-related factors to determine the optimal driving speed on the
mainline. The methods can overcome the issues of traditional methods which
excessively rely on historical data and have modeling difficulty. The optimal driving
speed is real-time and has a high accuracy which provides reliable methods for the
variable speed limits on a freeway.

INTRODUCTION
Variable speed limits control is widely used in various countries which can
greatly improve the traffic safety and efficiency on the freeway. The value of speed
limits should be changed corresponding to changing traffic conditions, weather
conditions and road conditions. The more dispersed the speed distributions, the
greater risk of the traffic accidents (Pei Yu-long, 2004). The factors that affect the
optimal speed are multifaceted. There are two kinds of traditional calculation
methods. One of the methods for calculating the optimal speed is based on statistical
data which always has bad real-time performance. The other methods to calculate the
optimal speed relies on mathematical models. It is difficult to establish the
mathematical models and the model parameters are also difficult to calibrate (Liang
Xin-rong, 2005). Therefore, intelligent control methods are used to study the variable
speed limits control.
A comprehensive algorithm is proposed which compares real-time traffic
conditions, environmental conditions and other closely related information with
speed. First, the fuzzy inference system is carried out based on fuzzy rules (Krause
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B.,1996; Li Bao-jia, 2002). Second, the neural network is adopted to memory and the
fuzzy rules are learned while the initial weight values of the neural network are
calibrated to avoid falling into local minimum and accelerating the convergence.
Then the optimal speed is acquired which has a real-time performance and high
accuracy. It provides a reliable speed control for the management of the freeway
which can produce good economic effects (Liu G., 1997; Juan Zhi-cai et al., 2004).

FUZZY CONTROL DESIGNS AND FNN CONTROL DESIGNS

There are two input variables in the fuzzy controller system of the optimal speed
shown in Figure 1 which includes the number of vehicles on the road and the index
value found from the driving environment. The output is the optimal speed for
driving on the freeway. The index value is calculated by another fuzzy controller
system.

Index
value Fuzzy Fuzzy
Fuzzy rules Speed
Traffic quantization decision
flow

Figure 1. Fuzzy Controller for Optimal Driving Speed.

There are also two input variables in the fuzzy controller system of index value
that are weather condition and road condition. The Bell-shaped membership function
was chosen for the input and the output variables with 5 values used for each variable.
They are negative big (NB), negative small (NS), zero (ZE), positive small (PS) and
positive big (PB), respectively. Hence, there are 25 control rules in the fuzzy
controller system. In addition, the Singleton method and Center of gravity method
were selected for fuzzification and defuzzification, respectively. The table of control
rules is shown in Table 1. The Fuzzy controller for vehicle speed is similar to the
index value controller. The Membership function of road conditions and weather
conditions are shown in Figure 2. The FNN inference system membership functions
are shown in Figure 3.
Fuzzy inference rules:
Rk : if ( x1 is x1i ) and ( x2 is x2 j ) then ( y is ck )

i = 1,2, 3,4,5; j = 1,2, 3,4,5;k=1,2, …,25.

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Table 1. Fuzzy Rules Table for Index Value.

w1 w2 w3 w4 w5
r1 v1 v1 v3 v4 v3
r2 v1 v2 v3 v4 v4
r3 v1 v2 v4 v4 v5
r4 v1 v2 v4 v5 v5
r5 v2 v2 v4 v5 v5

v1 v2 v3 v4 v5
1

0.8 of membership
Degree

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
v

Figure 2. Fuzzy Control Membership Function Curves.

1

0.5

0
-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
v

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
n

Figure 3. FNN Membership Function Curves after Training.

3 BP AND GA-BP CONTROL DESIGNS

BP neural network has a high degree of nonlinearity and strong generalization
ability. However, there are some fatal flaws such as convergence is relativity slow,
many more iterative steps, easily trapped local minimum values and poor ability for
global search. Genetic algorithm is adopted to calibrate the initial weights of BP
neural network. Then the BP network searches the optimal solution in a relatively
small search space so that BP neural network could be prevented from falling into a
local minimum value and which makes the convergence faster and thus reducing the
iterative steps to some extent.
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Figure 4. BP Neural Network Model for Speed Simulation.

There are two input variables in the BP neural network model; ne is the number of
vehicles on the freeway and the other is the index value. The output variable is the
optimal driving speed. The range of the variables is transformed into [0, 1] with the
functions of premnmx(), tramnmx() and postmnmx() in Matlab. Parameters of the
genetic algorithm are selected as follows: population n = 100, genetic crossover rate
2
1 m
Pc = 0.5 and mutation rate Pm = 0.06. The fitness function is min{E} = å
2 i =1
(ui - ui * ) ,

mi is the desired output value and mi* is the output value.

Figure 5. Error Curve of Weight Training Without Optimizing.

Figure 6. Error Curve of Weight Training under Optimizing.

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SIMULATIONS
BP neural network in which initial weights have been calibrated is used to learn
and memorize the optimal speed fuzzy inference system.

90

80

70

v
60

50

40

10
100
80
5 60
40
20
g 0 0
n

Figure 7. Fuzzy Inference System Output Surface of Speed.

0.5

0
s

-0.5

-1
1
0.5 0
0
-0.5
-1 1
v
n

Figure 8. FNN Inference System Output Surface of Speed.

21 consecutive time points are selected during the simulation period and the
time interval is 10 minutes. The maximum speed limit for this part of the freeway is
100km⁄h. Simulation results are shown in Table 2.

95 95
bp
94 gabp 90

93
85
92

80
91
speed
speed

90 75

89
70
88
65 fuzzy
87 bp
fnn
60
86 gapb

85 55
0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25
point point

Figure 9. Comparison of Simulation Results.

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Table 2. Simulation of Optimal Driving Speed.

Point 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Fuzzy 85.8633 85.9745 79.8595 76.4116 63.8287 59.6432 56.6261
BP 90.4928 90.5829 90.7728 93.0090 90.8915 91.1978 91.3503
FNN 89.3965 89.4870 89.6815 89.7971 89.4934 89.3607 88.2681
GABP 87.9196 90.5261 90.8243 90.5089 89.5616 88.4810 87.9191

Point 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Fuzzy 69.6795 83.0477 85.1173 85.9558 85.9132 85.8164 84.6324
BP 85.8093 89.2316 87.7437 91.2803 90.9449 90.3795 86.9766
FNN 86.5311 89.0359 88.4197 89.4751 89.4404 89.3573 87.3133
GABP 85.5924 89.2235 85.8959 86.7490 86.8338 86.6047 85.7359

Point 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Fuzzy 85.9870 86.3612 86.2491 86.3612 85.9732 86.2491 85.6686
BP 91.0391 94.2451 92.4134 93.8627 91.2939 92.5157 92.8562
FNN 89.4973 89.7313 89.6740 89.7318 89.5974 89.6738 89.7808
GABP 90.6085 88.2121 93.1656 88.6437 90.8494 92.6513 92.2046

As can be seen from the simulation results, the optimal driving speed is
changing simultaneously with the diversification of traffic volume, weather
conditions and road conditions. Following the optimal driving speed, speed
distribution can be relatively concentrated and the risk of traffic accidents can also be
reduced.

CONCLUSIONS
Unreasonable driving speed on the freeway has a major effect on traffic capacity
and causes traffic accidents. Optimal driving speed can be of great significance. A
comprehensive algorithm has been put proposed which compares real-time traffic
conditions, environmental conditions and other closely related information with
speed. The method overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional algorithms to some
extent and provides a more scientific approach for freeway management. The optimal
driving speed can increase the traffic capacity, and effectively reduce the risk of
accidents.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Funds
(70631002).
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REFERENCES
Juan Zhi-cai, Yao Hong-wei, Zhu Tai-ying, Jia Hong-fei. (2004). “Expressway
socio-economic impact assessment for variable speed limits.” Journal of
Highway and Transportation Research and Development (J),
21(5):104-108.
Krause B. (1996). “Intelligent Highway by Fuzzy Logic: Congestion Detection and
Traffic Control on Multi-Lane Roads with Variable Road Signs.”
Proceedings of the 5th IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems
[C], 1832-1837.
Li Bao-jia, Huang Xiao-yuan. (2002). “Fuzzy control for alterable speed limitation of
highway traffic.” Control Engineering of China (J), 9(3):45-47.
Liang Xin-rong, Liu Zhi-yong, Mao Zong-yuan. (2005). “Neuro-Fuzzy control for
speed limited on expressway and its simulation study.” Journal of Highway
and Transportation Research and Development (J), 22(11):123-125.
Liu G. (1997). “Provincial wide travel speed and traffic safety study in
Saskatchewan.” Transportation Research Record (J), 1595:8-13.
Pei Yu-long, Chen Guo-zhu. (2004). “Research on the relationship between discrete
character of speed and traffic accident and speed management of freeway.”
China Journal of Highway and Transport (J), 17(1):74-78.
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Freeway Traffic Incident Delay Analysis Based on Toll Data

Hongbin ZHANG1, Shunxin YANG1, Fujian NI1, Baiqiang LIU1

1
College of Transportation, Southest University, 2 Si Pai Lou, Nanjing, Jiangsu, P.R.
China, Post Code: 210096, PH: 86-25-83795209, Fax: 86-25-83794931， E-mail:
zhb1918@163.com

ABSTRACT
The freeway incident delay calculation model is generally based on freeway
capacity, reduced freeway capacity, traffic flow rate and incident duration. Now, it is
difficult to obtain traffic flow on-line data in China because the freeway traffic flow
detection equipment is scarce and most types are not available. On the other hand,
the Chinese freeways are all toll roads which have entry and exit toll stations, so this
paper proposes a method to analyze the traffic flow rate and the vehicle travel time
by using the toll data in the freeway network and further to study the traffic incident
delay. Finally this method is validated by the deterministic queuing delay model.
Key words: incident delay, toll data, traffic flow rate, travel time, deterministic
queuing model

1. INTRODUCTION
In order to minimize the impact of traffic incidents, the freeway incident
management system requires analyzing the incident delay, so that the transportation
management center can take the necessary traffic management control measures to
cause the driver to choose the correct driving path and reduce the traffic congestion
and secondary traffic incidents.
Considerable study has been conducted on freeway traffic incident delay.
Lighthill and Whitham (1955) applied the shockwave theory to the analysis of
freeway congestion[1]; Messer (1973) applied wave theory to non-recurrent incidents
occurring on the freeway to predict travel time[2]; Morales (1986) used an arrival and
departure curve to estimate the incident delay[3]; Al-Deek (1995) used I-880 data to
present two incident delay regression models [4].
The above models are generally based on freeway capacity, reduced freeway
capacity, traffic flow rate and incident duration. Currently, freeway traffic flow
detection equipment is scarce and most of them are out of use, so it is difficult to
obtain traffic flow rates of incident sections. The Chinese freeways are all toll roads
which have entry and exit toll stations, so this paper analyzes the traffic flow rate and
the vehicle travel time based on the toll data in the freeway network, further studies
the traffic incident delay and finally this delay method is validated by the
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deterministic queuing delay model.

2. TRAFFIC FLOW RATE CALCULATION BASED ON TOLL DATA

The Chinese freeways are all toll roads and process network tolls within each
province, and toll data records the traveling information of each vehicle such as:
vehicle type, entry toll station, entry time, exit toll station and exit time.
Taking the freeway network in Jiangsu province as an example, the total length
of freeways in Jiangsu province is about 4,000 kilometers, and the traffic
management center of Jiangsu province divides Jiangsu freeways into two network
toll systems: Southern Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu along the Yangtze River based
on geographical characteristics. This paper mainly studies Northern Jiangsu network.

2.1 Toll Data

This study collects the data of entry and exit toll stations in the Northern Jiangsu
network, from Januar,y 2000 to December, 2008. The data format as shown in Table
1, while Tables 2 and 3 show vehicle type and standard. In this paper, the toll data of
July, 2007 in the Northern Jiangsu network is used to study the traffic flow rate.

Table 1. Information of Entry and Exit.

Vehicle value Entry station Entry time Exit station Exit time
13 1050101 2006-12-31 21:47 1050104 2006-12-31 22:57
14 1050105 2006-12-31 22:48 1050104 2006-12-31 22:58
13 1050105 2006-12-31 22:48 1050104 2006-12-31 22:59

Table 2. Car Type and Standard.

Type Seat Vehicle value
Car 1 ≤7 1
Car 2 8-19 2
Car 3 20-39 3
Car 4 ≥40 4

Table 3. Truck Type and Standard.

Type Weight(ton) Vehicle value Length(feet) Vehicle value
Truck 1 ≤2 11 - -
Truck 2 2-5 12 - -
Truck 3 5-10 13 - -
Truck 4 10-15 14 20 23、24、25、26
Truck 5 ≥15 15 20 23、24、25、26
2.2 Vehicle Path Calculation
Vehicle path calculation is an important process that will directly affect the
accuracy of the following traffic flow rate calculation. This section consists of three
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parts: the establishment of the geographic information of the toll station and the
interchange, possible path calculation between entry and exit stations, and unusual
path filtering.

2.2.1 Establishment of Geographic Information of Toll Station and Interchange

Within the Northern Jiangsu freeway network, there are 133 toll stations and 17
interchanges, as shown in Figure 1. IDs of the interchanges are labeled from 1 to 17.
In the Northern Jiangsu freeways, all the toll stations and two Yangtze River bridges
form a closed network which ensures the integrity by using the OD matrix to
calculate the traffic flow rate.

Figure 1. Northern Jiangsu freeway network.

This paper divides freeway nodes into two categories: toll stations and
interchanges. As an example, the geographic information formats of the toll stations
and the interchanges of the Ning-Tong freeway are shown in Tables 4 and 5.
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Table 4. Toll Station of Ning-Tong Freeway.

Station Station Freeway Freeway Mileage Mainline
name ID name ID (km) station
Zhuanqiao 1700201 Ning-Tong 170 119.4 Y
Taizhou 1700202 Ning-Tong 170 146.4 N
Taixinbei 1700203 Ning-Tong 170 164.0 N
Taixindong 1700204 Ning-Tong 170 174.0 N
Guanglin 1700106 Ning-Tong 170 188.8 N
Jishi 1700105 Ning-Tong 170 196.7 N
Geshi 1700104 Ning-Tong 170 209.0 N
Rugaogang 1700103 Ning-Tong 170 219.9 N
Jiuhua 1700102 Ning-Tong 170 232.0 N
Pingchao 1700101 Ning-Tong 170 239.0 Y

Table 5. Interchange of Ning-Tong Freeway.

Interchange Interchange Freeway Freeway Mileage
name ID name ID (km)
Zhengyi 14 Ning-Tong 170 119.8
Zhengyi 14 Jing-Hu 115 260.0
Guanglin 15 Ning-Tong 170 123.7
Guanglin 15 Ning-Jing-Yan 145 0
Guanglin 15 GangJingXiChen 120 326.3
Jiuhua 17 Ning-Tong 170 232.2
Jiuhua 17 Tong-Qi 165 232.2

2.2.2 Possible Path Calculation

There are 17 interchanges which may cause the inexplicit paths in the current
Northern Jiangsu freeway network.
Through the analysis of the connection characteristics of the toll stations and the
interchanges, we find that a toll station is the node of entry and exit of a freeway,
while an interchange is the node which connects the different freeways, so
considering these two parts separately can greatly reduce the computational burden.
The paths between the entry and exit toll stations are divided into three types, as
shown in Table 6.
1) If the entry and exit toll stations are on the same freeway, we will assign the
value of entry and exit interchanges to zero;
2) If the entry and exit toll stations are not on the same freeway, and there is only
one interchange between the entry and exit toll stations, then the entry and exit
interchanges are same and their values are assigned as its ID number;
3) If the entry and exit toll stations are not on the same freeway, and there is
more than one interchange between the entry and exit toll stations, the entry and exit
interchanges are not same, then we will assign the value of the entry interchange to
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the ID number of the interchange nearest to the entry toll station and the value of the
exit interchange to the ID number of the interchange nearest to the exit toll station.

Table 6. Adjacent Information of Toll Station and Interchange.

Type Entry station Entry interchange Exit station Exit interchange
1 1050101 0 1050102 0
2 1050101 3 1500102 3
3 1050101 3 1150204 2

According to the distribution characteristics of the Northern Jiangsu freeway

network, the driver will not choose to detour from the other freeway, so the path of
type 1 and 2 is unique, but for the third situation there will be many paths between
the entry and exit interchanges. Thus, the calculation of the paths between any two
toll stations is converted to the calculation of the paths between any two
interchanges.
According to the Northern Jiangsu freeway network geographic information data,
the connecting matrix of the adjacent interchanges is established. On this basis, the
connection paths between any two interchanges (assumed as A and B) are
established as follows:
Take A as the start node to find the next adjacent interchange A1, then take A1 as
the start node to find the next adjacent interchange A2 … finally to B. The next
interchange cannot repeatedly appear because the drivers usually cannot backtrack.
Taking into account that the vehicles do not take much of the interchanges, without
losing generality, this paper calculates most common 12 interchanges between entry
and exit interchanges.
Calculating with the Visual Basic program, the paths may be connected to
10,915 between any two interchanges within the Northern Jiangsu freeway network.
Through the above connections between the toll stations and the adjacent
interchanges, and the connections between any two interchanges, path calculations
can be achieved between any two toll stations within the freeway network. Finally,
we can obtain all the possible driving paths of 689,643 between all the toll stations
in the Northern Jiangsu freeway network through programming. Table 7 shows the
possible paths from toll station 1,050,101 to toll station 1,150,101.
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Table 7. Path from Entry Station to Exit Station.

Entry Exit Entry Exit Order
station station interchange interchange 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1050101 1150101 3 2 3 2
1050101 1150101 3 2 3 5 9 2
1050101 1150101 3 2 3 4 5 9 2
1050101 1150101 3 2 3 5 9 7 6 1 2
1050101 1150101 3 2 3 5 12 11 10 9 2
1050101 1150101 3 2 3 4 5 9 7 6 1 2
1050101 1150101 3 2 3 4 5 12 11 10 9 2
1050101 1150101 3 2 3 5 9 10 8 7 6 1 2
1050101 1150101 3 2 3 5 12 11 10 8 7 9 2

2.2.3 Path Identification and Filtering

Taking into account the driver's driving habits, as well as the characteristics of
freeway toll, drivers generally do not detour, so it is necessary to identify and filter
the above paths.
In this paper, the main principles used to establish multi-path identification and
filtering in the Northern Jiangsu freeway network are as follows:
1) Abstract the loop consisting of Ninghai interchange - Jinping interchange -
Guanyunbei interchange - Ninghai interchange into a node, when vehicles pass by
the competitive sections of the loop, the path will be split by the shortest one.
2) When vehicles pass through the loop consisting of path 1: Wangxing
interchange - Chuzhou interchange; Path 2: Huaianxi interchange - Huaiannan
interchange - Chuzhou interchange; Path 3: Wangxing interchange - Huaianxi
interchange - Huaiannan interchange, the path will be split by the shortest one.
3) Exclude the return paths between the toll stations and the interchanges.
4) The criteria for judging the competitive section is less than 30 kilometers. If
the competitive sections are more than or equal to 3, only the shortest path and sub-
shortest path in proportion are split. The split ratio is shown in Table 8.

Table 8. Proportion of Path Split.

Distance difference Proportion of shortest path Proportion of sub-shortest path
≤5km 65% 35%
(5,10] km 70% 30%
(10,15] km 80% 20%
(15,20] km 90% 10%
(20,25] km 95% 5%
(25,30] km 99% 1%

Use the above filtering principles to make the path identification and filtering:
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use the principles 1 and 2 to reduce the original paths from 689,643 to 356,543; use
the principle 3 to reduce the possible paths from 356,543 to 267,891; and finally use
the principle 4 to reduce the possible paths from 267,891 to 152,961.

2.3 Calculation of Traffic Flow Rate

2.3.1 Establishment of Traffic Flow OD Matrix
The data from July, 2007 shows that the total travel times are 4 × 106 times at all
entry and exit stations in the Northern Jiangsu freeway network, and if we allocate
each vehicle one by one according to the path, then calculation efficiency will be
greatly reduced. Taking into account that a large number of vehicles enter the
freeway from the same entry station and leave from the same exit station, and the
paths are also same, so through the establishment of OD matrix, and then allocating
it can enhance the running efficiency of the program. For example: in a month from
toll station A to B, the number of vehicle trips are 5,000 times, in the absence of
establishing OD matrix the program will allocate 5,000 times, while after
establishing the OD matrix the program can be a one-time allocation.
Create the OD matrix in the Northern Jiangsu freeway network by using VBA
development functions in the Access database. Remaining vehicle types while
establishing OD matrix and the data format are shown in Table 9.

Table 9. OD Matrix of Traffic Flow.

Ca Ca Truc Truc Truc Truc Truc
Entry Exit Car Car
r r k k k k k
station station 1 3
2 4 1 2 3 4 5
105010 105010
381 56 711 0 0 317 203 169 0
1 2
105010 105010
914 30 392 0 3 225 102 237 2
1 3
105010 105010
122 10 60 0 3 263 154 1003 0
1 4
105010 105010 120 100
35 0 4 441 264 883 0
1 5 6 6

2.3.2 Traffic Flow Assignment

Freeways in the Northern Jiangsu system are all toll roads; the toll station which
each vehicle enters or leaves through could only be the toll station within this
freeway network. Therefore, through the previous establishments of the OD matrix
of traffic flow and the path between entry and exist stations, we can assign traffic
flow between entry and exist stations to the corresponding path and eventually
accumulate to get the traffic flow rate of each section within the freeway network.
Due to OD matrices within the large-scale in the Northern Jiangsu network and
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the path choosing complexity, this paper uses the method combining Visual Basic
Language and Access data development to develop a program of traffic flow rate
based on above algorithm.
Ning-Tong freeway on July 23, 2007, K173 of Nantong to Nanjing direction
traffic flow rate calculation result is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Section traffic flow rate（K173）.

3. TRAVEL TIME AND DELAY ANALYSIS BASED ON TOLL DATA
This section uses the recorded data in the toll station to analyze the vehicle travel
time and the travel time delay during the incident. The data of traffic incidents for
the study are shown in Table 10 [5].

Table 10. Traffic Incident Log.

Vehicl Lane
Freeway Directio Positio Vehicl Injur
Date Type e blocke
name n n e type y
count d
rear
07.7.2 NingTon Car,
Nanjing K168 collisio 3 3 0,1
3 g truck
n

3.1 Section Description

Ning-Tong freeway, as shown in Figure 3, has a total length of 120 kilometers,
bi-directional four-lane (Nanjing to Nantong direction and Nantong to Nanjing
direction), and a total of 10 toll stations and three interchanges.
3.2 Analysis of Travel Time and Delay
This section analyzes incident delay based on the actual travel time of vehicles
of the toll data, compared with the normal travel time. Taking into account the toll
station recording a huge amount of information and network tolls, this paper chooses
the data of vehicles which going from the Pingchao mainline toll station onto the
freeway and from the Zhuanqiao mainline toll station leaving the freeway on July 23,
2007 for analysis, as shown in Figures 4 and 5 below. The distance from the
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Pingchao entry to Zhuanqiao exit is 119.6 kilometers (from Table 4), and the
distance from the Pingchao entry to the incident location is 71km (from Tables 4
and 10).

Figure 3. Ning-Tong freeway.

Figure 4. Car travel time (July 23, 2007, Pingchao entry, Zhuanqiao exit).

Figure 5. Truck travel time (July 23, 2007, Pingchao entry, Zhuanqiao exit).

In Figure 4, for the car travel time, the calculated average travel time is 74
minutes before the incident from Pingchao to Zhuanqiao and the average speed is 97
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kilometers / hour. The average car travel time is 44 minutes from Pingchao to the
location of the incident. In Figure 5, for truck travel time, the calculated average
travel time is 119 minutes before the incident from Pingchao to Zhuanqiao and the
average speed is 60 kilometers / hour. The average truck travel time is 71 minutes
from Pingchao to the incident location.
By adding 44 minutes on the horizontal coordinate and reducing 74 minutes
from the vertical coordinate in Figure 4 and adding 71 minutes on the horizontal
coordinate and reducing 119 minutes from the vertical coordinate in Figure 5, we
can obtain the delay diagram between vehicle delay and the time of the vehicle’s
arrival at the incident location, as shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6. Curve of traffic incident delay.

From figure 6 we can see the incident start time is 13:25 and the traffic recovery
time is 17:23. The maximum delay time is 15:34, maximum delay is 57 minutes, and
delays for vehicles arriving at 14:37 and 16:30 into the incident location are 40
minutes and 33 minutes, respectively. In the sample data, the number of vehicles in
the incident section is 96, the vehicles, delay is 2,708 minutes, the mean delay is 28
minutes and the variance is 271. According to Figure 2, during the incident the
number of vehicles in the incident section is 4,760, so the total delay is
(2708 / 96) × 4760 =134271 minutes.

4. THEORETICAL DELAY MODEL VERIFICATION

4.1 Deterministic Queuing Delay Model
As Figure 7 shows, the deterministic queuing model indicates the mode of the
vehicle arrival and departure before and after the incident occurred [6]. The
parameters in this model are defined as follows:
T * : Incident start time (hh:mm);
D* : Incident duration (minutes);
q : Traffic flow rate (vph);
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c : Freeway capacity, which is also the departure rate after the incident (vph);
c* : Reduced freeway capacity during the incident (vph);
T1 : Maximum delay time of the vehicle (hh:mm);
T2 : Traffic recovery time (hh:mm);
d m : Maximum delay (minutes).
Cumulative Traffic Volume q

D*

Da

*
C

*
T T0 Ta T1 T*+D* T2 Time

Figure 7. Deterministic queuing diagram of incident delay.

=D*
c−q
c −c*
(T2 −T * ) （1）

c*
T=1 T * + D* （2）
q

q −c*
=dm (T1 −T * ) （3）
c*

The delay d (t ) for vehicle arriving at time t is:

 q − c*
 c* (t − T ) (0 ≤ t ≤ T1 )
*

 （4）
d (t ) =  c − c* * c − q
 c D − c (t − T ) (T1 < t ≤ T2 )
*


0 (t > T2 )

The total delay Du caused by the incident is the triangle square in the Figure 7:

1 ( q −c* )( c −c* )
Du = ( D* )2 （5）
2 (c−q )

The mean delay d is the ratio of the total delay and the vehicle arriving numbers
from T * to T2 :
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 546
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Du q −c* *
=
d = D （6）
Nv 2q

Suppose vehicle arrival time is uniformly distributed, then the mean of delay and
variance can be written as [7]:
T2 q −c* *
=
E[ d (t )] ∫
=
T*
d (t ) f (t ) dt
2q
D （7）

( q −c* )2 ( D* )2
VAR[ d (t )]=E[ d 2 (t )]−[ E[ d (t )]]2 = （8）
12 q 2

4.2 Using Model to Calculate Delay

In accordance with this section’s characteristics, freeway capacity
[8]
c = 2400vph , Figure 2 shows the section traffic flow rate of Nantong-Nanjing
direction from 13:25 to 17:23 is q = 1200vph . According to Tables 10 and 11, the
reduced freeway capacity c* = c × 0.35 = 2400 × 0.35 = 840vph ; according to Figure 6,
the incident start time T = 13 : 25 , the traffic recovery time T2 = 15 : 23 .
*

Table 11. Freeway Capacity Coefficient During the Incident. [9]

Number of Shoulder Shoulder One lane Two lanes
lane blocked incident blocked blocked
2 0.95 0.81 0.35 0.00
With Equations (1) - (8), the delay parameters can be obtained, which are shown
as below:
= =
D* 183(min), =
T1 15 : 33, d m 55(min);
= =
d (t 14 =
: 37) 31(min), =
d (t 16 : 30) 27(min);
= =
Du 130607(min), =
E[ d (t )] 28(min), VAR[ d (t )] 251.
The results based on the toll data and deterministic queuing model are shown in
Table 12, which shows that they are consistent.

Table 12. Comparison of Two Results.

Max. delay Max. Delay Delay Total Mean
Variance
time delay (14:37) (16:30) delay delay
Toll data 15:34 57 40 33 134271 28 271
Model 15:33 55 31 27 130607 28 251

5. CONCLUSION
This paper analyzes section traffic flow rate and vehicle travel time based on toll
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data, then further studies the delay caused by the traffic incident and finally this
delay method is validated by the deterministic queuing delay model. The results
show that the method of the freeway traffic incident delay analysis based on the toll
data is simple and effective.

REFERENCES
Al-Deek, H.M.; Garb, A.M.; Radwan, A.E. Methods for estimating freeway incident
congestion part-1: Conventional methods[C]. 79th annual meeting of the
transportation research board, Washington, D.C., 1995
Garber, N.J. and Hoel, L.A. Traffic and Highway Engineering, Fourth Edition[M].
Cengage Learning, 2005.
Lighthill, M.J. and Whitham, G.B. On kinematic waves II. A theory of traffic flow on
long crowded roads [C]. Proceedings of the Royal Society, 1955, A (229):
314-345.
Li Jibing. Estimation of incident delay and its variability in freeway networks[D].
University of Miami, 2006.
Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China. Design Specification for
Highway Route JTG-D20-2006. China Communications Press, 2006.
Mitchell, T. Machine Learning[M]. McGraw-Hill, 2002.
Messer, J.C.; Dudek, C. L.; Friehele, J.D. Method for predicting travel time and other
operational measures in real-time during freeway incident conditions[J].
Highway Research Record, 1973, 461:1-16
Morales, M. J. Analytical procedures for estimating freeway traffic congestion[J].
Public Road, 1986, 50 (2):55-61.
Ningtong freeway traffic management center incident log, July 23, 2007.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 548
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Optimization Modeling of Superelevation Rates Based on Operation Speed

Qinghong HUANG 1and Hongjing FAN2

1
Assitant Engineer of the Highway & Survry Design Institute of Hainan Province,
Haikou; PH: (139) 76077796; email: funfunhqh@sina.com
2
Assitant Engineer of the Highway & Survry Design Institute of Hainan Province,
Haikou; PH: (139) 76658760; email:funfunhqh@sina.com

ABSTRACT
According to an accident investigation of twenty expressways in China from
2001 to 2007, the author found that only about 3.56% of all crashes involve rollover
accidents and considering the severity of rollover accidents, the percentage of people
that died from rollover crashes is nearly 40.5%. However, the current Design
Specification in China only specifies the maximum superelevation rates for different
design speeds, and does not provide suggested value for certain traffic conditions.
Moreover, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has proposed the
concept of the static stability factor, which can provide new research thinking for the
superelevation model. Therefore, this paper built an optimization model considering
it’s compatibility for different vehicle types, different design speeds and different
curve radius. Moreover, the paper demonstrated the detailed calculation process of
the optimization method on the basis of this data through an example.

INTRODUCTION
According to an accident investigation of twenty expressways in China, from
2001 to 2007, the author found that only about 3.56% of all crashes involve rollover
accidentsand considering the severity of rollover accidents, the percentage of people
died from rollover crashes is nearly 40.5%. Even though the causes of rollover
accidents are quite complex to be explained here, some possible reasons why rollover
accidents occur can be summarized as driving errors, overload, adverse weather and
road design.(Kanellaidis, 2001). The primary reason for most rollover accidents
occurring is that roadway/roadside design (especially superelevation design), actual
speed and vehicle characteristic are incompatible. Through the summarization and
analysis, of the reasons of why rollover accidents occurred can be found.

OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY

Providing an optimization model based on comprehensive consideration of the
inference factors of vehicle type, vehicle weight, vehicle dimension parameter,
vehicle dynamic performance and actual speedcan make the final calculated
superelevation rates more accurate.

INFLUENCING FACTORS AND DATA FOR OPTIMIZATION MODELING

Influencing Factors in Superelevation
The superelevation model based on design speed can solve the problem of
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Design Specification (JTG D20-2006) for Highway Alignment only specifying the
maximum superelevation rates for different design speeds and did not specifying
superelevation rate for a certain horizontal curve radius. But in reality, the actual
speed of every vehicle can’t be ensured o equal the design speed. Therefore,
superelevation rates should be adjusted with the variation of vehicle types and
driving speeds.
According to the vehicle force analysis on curve sections and combining the
characteristic of rollover accidents (Deutermann, 2002), it is considered that
superelevation rates should ensure vehicle stability as a starting point and a
comprehensive analysis of the three influences are as follows:
Drivers: panic-like steering is the action maneuvered by driver in
overcorrecting the steering condition made from sudden or panic reaction mostly
found in the case of emergency. It may cause vehicles to lose control, consequently
making the vehicles move along the sideway, and eventually roll over. Hence
superelevation should have a fault-tolerant ability for driving errors.
Highway Environment and Weather Conditions (Masaeid,1999): Friction
coefficient and anti-sliding ability of pavements are the main influencing factors for
vehicle stability. Furthermore, weather conditions, especially rainy weather and
snowy weather are also main influencing factors for vehicle stability. For
convenience of the calculation process, the two optimization methods in this paper
both assumed that weather condition is well and can meet the demands for vehicle's
normal running.
Vehicle Characteristics: Vehicle characteristics are also main factors for
consideration in superelevation design. Since 2001 the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration (NHTSA) has been assigning rollover resistance ratings to
vehicles (one to five stars). Between 2001 and 2003，the ratings were calculated
using the static stability factor（SSF）, a measurement of a vehicle's geometrical
ability to resist rollover based on its width and center of gravity height and center of
gravity height; Beginning in 2004, the rollover resistance rating system was revised
to combine the SSF with results from a dynamic handling test. Combing the research
results about SSF, the paper analyzed in detail the four influences as follows:
(1)Actual speed on curve section: The value of the centrifugal force increases
with actual speed increasing, and consequently required superelevation rate should
be increased. On the contrary, when driving speed reduces, required superelevation
rate should be reduced with the driving speed reducing;
(2)Vehicle dimensional parameters: Vehicle dimensional parameters include two
factors, which are height of center of gravity and vehicle's track width (the distance
between the right and left tires). Many rollover accidents were found to have
oversize cargo load that significantly increase the height of center of gravity,
reducing stability of vehicle, and hence causing vehicle rollover. Moreover, vehicle's
track width is a main factor ensuring vehicles’ stability. If it is longer, the ability of
anti-rollover is better, hence the required superelevation rate is smaller. On the
contrary, the required superelevation rate increases with vehicle's track width
shortening.
(3)Vehicle weight: Vehicle weight is a disadvantageous factor for vehicles’
stability. According to the classical physics, it is clear that inertia increases with
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vehicle weight increasing, thereby the required superelevation rate also increases; On
the contrary, the superelevation rate also reduces with vehicle weight reducing.
(4)Vehicle dynamic performance: To some extent, vehicle dynamic performance
can reflect the anti-rollover ability. With the development of transportation in China,
dynamic performance of all vehicles has been significantly improving, which is
shown in Table 1.
Based on this analysis, the paper provided an optimization method for
superelevation rates on the basis of the model of superelevation by design speed. The
optimization method is a modified method for the superelevation model and can
make calculated superelevation rates that conform to reality better. These
optimization methods have a key assumption that the factors of drivers, highway
environment and weather condition were all ideal conditions, and only consider the
influences of vehicle characteristics.

THE DATA FOR OPTIMIZATION MODEL

Based on the assumption, the optimization method needs the data of actual
speeds, vehicle dimension parameters, vehicle weights and vehicle dynamic
performances.
First, the data of proportion and the operating speeds of various vehicle types of
twenty expressways whose design speeds are 120km/h in China, which are shown in
Table 1, were determined based on the statistics from Detailed Design Rules
(JTG/TD81-2006) of Traffic Safety Facilities.
Secondly, the data of vehicle dimension parameters(b and hg ), vehicle weights
( VW ) and vehicle dynamic performances ( VD ) of all representative vehicles which are
shown in Table 2, were determined by the investigation data of economic growth
level in our country and the statistics of vehicle types in China.
Finally, for the analysis the results’ accuracy and methods’ superiority, the study
compared the results to the regulations of Design Specification (JTJ 001—94) for
Highway Alignment, which provided the value range of superelevation for a certain
curve radius.

Table 1. Statistic of Vehicle Types and Operation Speeds of Twenty Expressways

in China.
Vehicle type i Car Medium Large Light Medium Large
Bus bus truck truck truck
Numbering 1 2 3 4 5 6
Operating speed 135 107 103 90 78 73
Vi （mph）
Percentage N i 48.5 9.515 4.525 9.34 20.93 7.185
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Table 2. Vehicle Characteristic of Representative Vehicle in China.

Vehicle type Representative vehicle VW （t） VD b（m） hg（m） b
hg
Light truck DongfengK01 <2t 0.06~0.10 1.31 0.9625 1.23
Medium Dongfeng EQ1120ADX 6~14t 0.04~0.06 1.8 1.45 0.81
truck
Large truck DongfengEQ1290W >14 0.04~0.06 1.8 1.75 0.97
Medium Bus Dongfeng EQ-140 <1t 0.04~0.06 2 1.5 0.75
Large bus Dongfeng EQ-140 <1t 0.04~0.06 2.5 1.5 0.6
Car Sangtana 2000 <0.5t 0.10~0.15 1.42 0.71 0.5

OPTIMIZATION MODELING CONSIDERING OPERATION SPEED

Methodology
In addition, the superelevation model did not consider it’s compatibility for
different vehicle types. But in practice, superelevation rates may be suited for some
vehicle types, and is not suited for other vehicle types. Therefore, the main purpose
of the second optimization algorithm is ensuring the highest vehicle’ safety, and
calculating weighted comfort parameters E ( j, k ) . These are based on a comprehensive
consideration of vehicle type, proportion of vehicle types, vehicle weight, vehicle
dimension parameters and actual speed on curve sections, and choosing the
superelevation rate whose corresponding weighted comfort parameter E ( j, k ) is the
best one as the final calculated superelevation rate.

Definition and Boundary of Sideway Force Coefficient " m "

Studies at home and abroad have shown that the sideway force coefficient
" m " is a main index in evaluating vehicle stability from the view of the safety of
drivers, and the risk of unfavorable condition increases with the value of the sideway
force coefficient increasing (Yuhua Z ,1999) Therefore, it is an effective method that
decreases the value of the sideway force coefficient as soon as possible. Hence the
key point for this optimization method is confirming the rational value range for
sideway force coefficient " m " .
First, according to the regulations of Design Specification (JTG D20-2006) for
Highway Alignment shown in Table 3, the values of the sideway force
coefficient " m " were divided into four degrees and were defined respectively by
drivers’ comfort as follows: (1) m £ 0.035 , ideal condition (drivers cannot feel curves
existing); (2) 0.035 £ m £ 0.05 ,comfort condition (drivers can feel curves existing);
(3) 0.05 £ m £ 0.1 ,discomfort condition (drivers can feel curves existing); (4) m ³ 0.1 ,
adverse condition (it is disadvantageous for drivers’ comfort).
Secondly, the paper divided drivers’ comfort into four degrees. When vehicle
i
type is i , driving speed is Vi , superelevation rate is hj and the value of curve radius
is Rk , and the index of drivers’ comfort f (i, j , k ) is expressed as:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 552
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ì Vi 2
ï -1 , - i £ 0.035
ï 127 Rk hj
ï Vi 2
ï -0.33 , 0.035 < - ihj £ 0.05
ïï 127 Rk
f ( i, j , k ) = í
ï + 0.33, 0.05 <
Vi 2
- ihj £ 0.1
ï 127 Rk
ï
ï Vi 2
ï +1, - ihj ³ 0.1
ïî 127 Rk (1)

Table 3. Regulations of Design Specification (JTG D20-2006) for Highway

Alignment.
Design speed Limiting common Minimum radius
（km/h） minimum radius minimum without superelevation
radius
120 0.10/650 0.05/1000 0.035/5500
100 0.11/400 0.05/700 0.035/4000
80 0.12/250 0.06/400 0.035/2500
m/R 0.13/125 0.06/200 0.035/1500
60
40 0.14/60 0.06/100 0.035/600
30 0.15/30 0.05/65 0.035/350
20 0.16/15 0.05/30 0.035/150

Finally, the paper defined the collective index of drivers’ comfort E ( j, k ) as the
sum of all vehicle types of the index of drivers’ comfort f (i, j , k ) of every vehicle
type multiplied by its weight coefficient hi , and is expressed as:
6
E ( j , k ) = å h i f (i , j , k ) (2)
i =1

Calculation and Analysis of Weighted Coefficient i

According to the collective index of drivers’ comfort E ( j, k ) shown in equation
(3), the key point for the collective index of drivers’ comfort E ( j, k ) is determining
accurately the value of weight coefficient hi . Therefore, the paper calculated,
h
respectively, weighted coefficients of vehicle weight mi , vehicle dynamic
h h h
performance Di and vehicle dimension parameter ( bi and hgi ), and then calculated
the comprehensive weighted coefficient hi , which is expressed as:
N i .hhg .hmi
hi = i

h Di .hbi
(3)
According to the equation (3), the paper obtained, respectively, the weighted
h
coefficients of vehicle weight h mi , the vehicle dynamic performance Di , the vehicle
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 553
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h h
dimension parameters ( bi and hgi ) and the comprehensive weighted coefficient hi of
the twenty expressways in China based on the data shown in Table 4, which is shown
in Table 3.
Table 4. Calculated Comprehensive Weighted Coefficient hi .
Vehicle type Representative vehicle hm h Di b Ni hi
hg
Light truck Dongfeng K01 0.08 0.133 0.253 0.093 0.062
Medium truck Dongfeng EQ1120ADX 0.24 0.213 0.167 0.209 0.439
Large truck Dongfeng EQ1290W 0.56 0.213 0.200 0.072 0.424
Medium Bus Dongfeng EQ-140 0.04 0.178 0.154 0.091 0.025
Large bus Dongfeng EQ-140 0.04 0.178 0.123 0.041 0.009
car Sangtana 2000 0.04 0.085 0.103 0.485 0.042

According to the data shown in Table 5, it is obvious that although a car

accounts for a large proportion of the vehicle types, which accounts for 48.5%, the
mainly considered vehicle types for superelevation design are medium truck and
large truck. This conclusion can provide some indication about which specific
vehicles are more likely to be involved in rollover crashes.
Process and Example
Based on the analysis above, the process of second optimization method is as
follows: (1)Firstly, the paper inserted, respectively,
X V2
ihj =-2%,2%,3%,4%,5%,6%,7%,8%,9%,10% m= = - ih
into G 127.R ; (2) Secondly, combining
the data shown in Table (4), the paper inserted the calculated sideway force
coefficient "m"into equation (1) and equation (2), and obtained the collective index of
drivers comfort collective E ( j, k ) ; (3) Finally, the superelevation rates corresponding
9
min {E ( j , k )}
to the first minimum collective index of drivers’ comfort j =1 was chosen as the
final calculated superelevation rates.
Taking the curve radius equaling to 650m as an example, when superelevation
rate equals to 9%, the collective index of drivers’ comfort is the minimum, which is
-0.89422. Thereby, the paper calculated the final superelevation rate being 9% when
curve radius equals to 650m, which is shown in Table 5.
Table 5. Final Calculated Superelevation Rate When Curve Radius Equals To
650m.
i =1
R1 = 650m 2 3 4 5 6
i hj Vi 135 107 103 90 78 73 E ( j ,1)
j =1
0.042 0.025 0.009 0.062 0.14487 0.13992 0.42279
-0.02
2 0.02 0.042 0.025 0.009 0.02046 -0.14487 -0.13992 -0.18833
3 0.03 0.042 0.025 0.00297 0.02046 -0.14487 -0.424 -0.47844
4 0.04 0.042 0.00825 0.00297 0.02046 -0.439 -0.424 -0.78932
5 0.05 0.042 0.00825 0.00297 -0.02046 -0.439 -0.424 -0.83024
6 0.06 0.042 0.00825 0.00297 -0.02046 -0.439 -0.424 -0.83024
7 0.07 0.042 0.00825 0.00297 -0.062 -0.439 -0.424 -0.87178
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 554
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8 0.08 0.042 0.00825 -0.00297 -0.062 -0.439 -0.424 -0.87772

9 0.09 0.042 -0.00825 -0.00297 -0.062 -0.439 -0.424 -0.89422
10 0.10 0.042 -0.00825 -0.009 -0.062 -0.439 -0.13992 -0.61617
the final calculated superelevation rate ih9 = 0.09

With the same method, the paper obtained all calculated superelevation rates ih
for the different curve radii, which are shown in Table 6.
Table 6. Calculated Superelevation Rates Based On Second Optimization
Method.
R k （m） k =1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
650 800 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 4000 5000 6000
ih 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 -0.02

COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS

Table 7.The Comparison Between Three Superelevation Rates.
Curve 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
radius R k 650 800 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 4000 5000 5500 6000
（m）
ih 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 -0.02
iR 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 -0.02 -0.02

As Table 7 shows, the study compared the calculated superelevation rates to the
regulations of Design Specification (JTJ 001—94) for Highway Alignmen and
obtained the conclusions as follows:
i
The Results of h Conform to Reality Better Than the Regulations
Because the optimization methods not only consider the influence of actual
speed, but also comprehensively analyzed the influence of vehicle
ih was built based on the comprehensive consideration in the influencing factors
of vehicle type, vehicle anti-overturn capability, vehicle weight, vehicle dimension
parameter and actual speed. With the improvement of vehicle dynamic performances
in China, operation speeds of all vehicles, especially heavy trucks have been
increasing, and consequently the superelevation rates should also be increased. As
the example in this paper shows, for the twenty expressways in China whose design
speeds are all 120km/h, the superelevation rates should be adjusted to 9% from 8%
for the minimum curve radius equaling to 650m. Moreover, the value of minimum
radius without superelevation should be adjusted to 6000m from 5500m

Applicability Analysis of ih (Said M. Easa, 2003)

ih is necessary for the data of operating speeds for a vehicle on curve
sections, proportion of vehicle types, vehicle dimension parameters, vehicle weights
and vehicle dynamic performances, and these are different for different years and
different areas. Therefore, for a special highway superelevation rate design, the
author suggested that the data should be obtained by traffic investigation about
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 555
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proportion of vehicle types and the forecasting of operation speeds for different curve
radii and different vehicle types.

CONCLUSION
The paper on highway superelevation models’ building and optimizing in China
has been based on the regulations of Design Specification for Highway Alignment,
hence the calculated superelevation rates meet the strict regulations of Design
Specification for Highway Alignment. The optimization model makes the calculated
superelevation rates conform to reality better than the regulations of Design
Specification for Highway Alignment, and can be complementary to it.

REFERENCES
Design Specification (JTG D20-2006) for Highway Alignment, China
Communication Press, Beijing (2006).
Design Specification (JTJ 001—94) for Highway Alignment, China Communication
Press, Beijing (1994).
Detailed Design Rules (JTG/TD81-2006) of Traffic Safety Facilities, China
Communication Press, Beijing (2006).
Kanellaidis, G (2001). “Road curve superelevation design: Current practices and
proposed approach”, available online: http://findarticles.com
Fang W.(2009).”Modeling and optimizing of superelvation rates” Proceedings of 5th
China-Japan Workshop on Pavement Technologies. Xi’an, China.
Al-Masaeid, Hashem R, Hammory, Khalid, Al-Omari (1999). “Bashar Consistency
of horizontal alignment under adverse weather conditions”. available online:
http://findarticles.com
Yuhua Zhang (1999). “Road Surveying and Design”, China Communication Press,
Beijing (2002)
Sattrawut Ponboon, Yordphol Tanaboriboon, Kunnawee Kanitpong (2008).
“Contributing Factors of Road Crashes in Thailand: Evidence from an
Accident In-Depth Study”. Paper No. 08-1057 Transportation Research
Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C.
Deutermann, W (2002). “Characteristics of fatal rollover crashs”. Washington, DC:
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
Said M. Easa, (2003) “Distributing Superelevation to Maximize Highway Design
Consistency,” Transportation. Engineer, Volume 129, Issue 2, pp. 127-133
March.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 556
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Operating Left-Turn Phase at Signalized Intersection Based on Traffic Conflict

Technique

Feng SUN 1

1
College of Transport and Vehicle Engineering; Shandong University of Technology;
Zibo 255049; China; Email: sunfeng0904@sina.com

ABSTRACT
Assuming that the frequency of various types of conflicts occurring at
intersections follows a Poisson distribution, this paper first introduces the method of
identifying dangerous conflicts and then analyzes traffic conflicts at two phasing
intersections by using a traffic conflict technique. In this paper, a two-phase
signalized intersection is selected as the survey site and the method of identifying
dangerous conflicts is applied to diagnose various types of conflicts at the
intersection. By operating a protected left-turn phase at the approach which is
diagnosed as causing existing dangerous conflicts, fewer conflicts occur at this
intersection. Meanwhile, VISSIM verifies that operation efficiency of vehicles at the
intersection has been improved. Therefore, the conflict technique can be used to
select signal phasing effectively.

1.INTRODUCTION
In small- and medium-sized cities in China, a large number of intersections
are adopting two-phase signalized controls suitable for low-volume intersections,
which is characterized by short signal cycle length and short delay of vehicles. But
with the increase in volume，this kind of control begins to make intersections’
conflicts more severe. In other words, it not only brings about the extended delay of
vehicles but also decreases safety. To enhance the safety at intersections, it is
essential to add the protected left-turn phase for reducing traffic conflicts (Agent et
al., 1995). However, few studies have been made to operate the protected left-turn
phase under proper conditions. So, this paper attempts to survey and analyze the
conflicts at two-phase signalized intersections by using a traffic conflict technique
and finds the ideal conditions for operating the protected left-turn phase.

2. METHOD OF IDENTIFYING DANGEROUS CONFLICTS AT GRADE

INTERSECTIONS
Identifying serious conflicts. According to the severity of conflicts,
conflicts are generally categorized into serious conflicts and non-serious conflicts
(Parker and Zegeer, 1988). Serious conflicts are identified by the following factors:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 557
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road users have experienced considerable mental pressure and have to take prompt
and effective measures, even the evasive actions characterized by tempestuous
behavior. They have a short period of time to perceive, judge and act. It is not
permitted for them to have any hesitation or take inappropriate actions; otherwise, a
traffic accident will occur. Since a considerable amount of studies show that the
similarity between accidents and serious conflicts is striking, it is vital to use an
appropriate index to identify serious conflicts (Mohamed et al., 2000).
The severity of a traffic conflict is measured by many indicators, such as
Time-to-Collision, distance to the potential point of collision, speed when the
evasive action is taken and so on (Hoong-Chor Chin, 1997). Based on the studies on
conflicts at grade intersections in China, this paper takes distance to the potential
point of collision as a criterion to measure the severity of a traffic conflict. In the
ordinary course of events, the travel speeds of vehicles crossing intersections do not
make much difference. In a traffic conflict survey, the speed range of vehicles at
intersections is attained first and then the critical distance is estimated based on
Table 1. When the observed vehicles drive abnormally, for example, if the distance
between the vehicles is larger than the approximate distance, the conflict is
considered a non-serious conflict. Otherwise, it is viewed as a serious conflict.

Table1. The Critical Distance of Speed between 1.0 and 10.0.(m).

Speed（m/s） Light-Vehicle Heavy-Vehicle
1.0 0.25 0.40
1.50 0.42 0.67
2.00 0.63 0.98
2.50 0.87 1.34
3.00 1.15 1.75
3.50 1.46 2.20
4.00 1.80 2.70
4.50 2.18 3.24
5.00 2.59 3.82
6.00 3.51 5.13
6.50 4.02 5.86
7.00 4.57 6.62
7.50 5.15 7.44
8.00 5.76 8.30
8.50 6.41 9.20
9.00 7.09 10.20
9.50 7.80 11.20
10.00 8.56 12.20

Probability distribution of serious conflicts. The occurrence of serious

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 558
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conflicts is a random phenomenon (Hummer, 1994). Through survey and statistics,

the regularity of serious conflicts can be discovered. Because the similarity between
the regularity of serious conflicts and the characteristics of Poisson distributions are
striking, the probability of serious conflicts during a given period of time can be
described by a Poisson distribution function.
At grade crossing intersections, assume that X is various types of serious
conflicts’ frequency and the given period of time is divided evenly into n parts.
When n is large, each part of given time is small. During each interval of the given
time, it allows only one or none serious conflict. Then the equation which describes
the probabilities of serious conflicts during a given period of time is:

lx e - x
P{ X = x} = P( x / l ) = （1）
x!

LL ； l = np .
Where, x = 0， 1， 2， 3，

l is the expected value of the Poisson distribution and indicates the

expected number of serious conflicts in the given time interval. Obviously, because
of different cross intersections with geometry, control method, traffic volume, and so
on, then the value of l is different, which represents the safety level of this
intersection, i.e. the larger the value of l is, the greater the probability of serious
conflicts is and the lower the safety level is.
The method to identify dangerous conflict types at the intersection. The
method to identify dangerous conflict types at the intersection is based on the
serious conflicts, and the reasons are as follows: Serious conflicts and accidents are
closely related, which means that serious conflicts indirectly reflect the safety level
of an intersection. The severity of a serious conflict can reflect road users’ sense of
safety. A serious conflict can accurately reflect the changing tendency of the safety
level at an intersection.
The frequency of various types of serious conflicts occurring at grade
intersections follows a Poisson distribution, so the expected conflicts occurring in
some unit time constitute a random sample. Then, the probability of conflicts value
can be calculated in Equation 1. According to the maximum likelihood estimation

method, the predicted value l during the time period t can be seen as l = x , where

x is the average value of the observed data. X is the random variable which is
fluctuated around l in a range. When an abnormal situation exists at intersections,
the fluctuation of X will exceed this range and the upper limit of this range is called
the critical value. If the frequencies of a type of conflict occurring in unit time (often
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 559
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taking one day as the unit time) exceed the critical value, this type of conflict is
called a dangerous conflict. To obtain the critical value, the percentile a of
conflicts’ probability distribution is introduced which is calculated in Equation 2.
x
ò
-¥
P ( x / l )dx = 1 - a （2）

When the probability that l of a type of conflict is greater than e obviously

exceeds a , this kind of conflict is considered to be a dangerous conflict, which
satisfies Equation 3.

lc e - l
¥
P{c > e / l} = å >a （3）
e c!
Therefore, a process to decide if a type of conflict is dangerous or not is a
process of calculating the critical value e when l is in the premise of a . The
iterative method can be used to solve Equation 3. However, when l is large, the
computation process is complicated, so it is necessary to use a more brief and
practical equation. According to the central limit theorem of Bernoulli distribution,
the random variable satisfies Equation 4.
X - np X -l
Z= » （4）
np (1 - p) l (1 - p )
Since p is a very small number, the random variable satisfies Equation 5.

X -l
Z» （5）
l

Based on the above assumption and deduction, the frequency X i of a type of

serious conflict occurring in each time period approximately follows a normal

distribution, and then Equation 6 can be used to calculate critical value e .
e = X » l + ua l （6）
2

Where, ua is a quartile of normal distribution.

2

In common usage, a claim to 90% confidence in something is normally taken as

indicating virtual certainty (Wadsworth, 1990). So taking the 90th percentile of this
distribution i.e. C90 as the standard to decide whether the site is dangerous, in other

words, if the frequency of some type of conflict observed a day is larger than C90 ,

this type of conflict is a dangerous conflict and correspondingly suitable

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 560
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countermeasures will be proposed.

3. ANALYSIS OF CONFLICTS AT TWO-PHASE INTERSECTION

This paper focuses on the study of motor vehicle conflicts at two-phase
intersections. At two-phase signalized intersections, there exist conflict points,
which include 4 crossing conflict points, 4 converging conflict points and 4
diverging conflict points. Of 24 types of conflicts, there are 16 types of conflicts
caused by left-turning vehicles. See Figure 1.

Figure 1. Vehicle Conflict Points at Two-Phase Signalized Intersections.

4. TRAFFIC CONFLICTS SURVEY AND SAFETY DIAGNOSIS

This paper selects the intersection of Xiliu Road and Shangchang Street as the
study object, the traffic study was carried out for three days, and the conflict data is
generally obtained when traffic volumes are the heaviest, i.e. between 7:30 A.M. and
8:30 A.M. and between 5:00 P.M. and 6:00 P.M. The safety condition of this
intersection is diagnosed by using the conflict technique mentioned above and the
collected data and its analysis can be shown as follows.
Current condition at the intersection of Xiliu Road and Shangchang Street.
At present, this intersection uses a two-phase signal plan. However, since its
geometry size is small and its approaches have not been channelized, all the vehicles
from different directions at each approach drive in the same lane, which makes
traffic conflicts serious.
Traffic conflicts survey and safety diagnosis. In this paper, three main types
of conflicts are observed at this intersection, they are (Geoffrey Ho, 2004):
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 561
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Left Turn Crossing (LTC); A Left Turn Crossing conflict occurs between a left-
turning vehicle and a through vehicle traveling on the cross street.
Right Turn (RT); A Right-Turn conflict occurs between a right-turning vehicle
and a through vehicle traveling on the cross street.
Rear-End (RE); A Rear-End conflict occurs between two vehicles traveling in
the same direction and travel lane.
According to the maximum likelihood estimation method, the average value of
the conflicts observed during three days can be approximately taken as the expected
conflict value, which is shown in Table 3. This average value is l of various types
of conflicts and can be considered an appropriate value and used in further analysis.
Selecting C90 as the evaluation standard to determine whether a type of conflict is

dangerous or not, according to the Equation (6), u0.05 =1.645, e is calculated and

dangerous conflicts are identified. The analyzed results are shown in Table 2.

Table 2. Data Analysis of Traffic Conflicts.

The
Approach Conflict Day Day Day Aver Dangerous
Critical
Name Type One Two Three age Conflicts
Value
RE 14 10 14 13 19 No
East Bound RT 2 4 1 2 5 No
LT C 58 47 75 60 73 Yes
RE 2 6 8 5 9 No
West
RT 1 3 7 4 7 Yes
Bound
LT C 31 37 54 41 51 Yes
RE 6 7 4 6 10 No
South
RT 2 1 1 1 3 No
Bound
LT C 43 58 48 50 61 No
RE 9 8 5 7 12 No
North
RT 1 0 0 0 1 No
Bound
LT C 35 30 42 36 45 No

Measures for improving safety at the intersection of Xiliu Road and

Shangchang Street. By investigating conflicts at the intersection of Xiliu Road and
Shangchang Street, it is clear that LTC at the approaches of East Bound and West
Bound are identified as dangerous conflicts. Therefore, only the approaches of East
Bound and West Bound need to be improved and suggested measures are as follows:
these two approaches should be broadened to add an exclusive left-turn lane, which
can separate the left-turning vehicles in space, and meanwhile a protected left-turn
phase should be operated there. The improved intersection is shown in Figure 2.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 562
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Figure 2. Improved Intersection of Xiliu Road and Shangchang Street.

5. EVALUATION OF THE IMPROVEMENT

Survey of traffic volume. In this paper, traffic volume is observed and data
collected are listed as follows:

Table 3. Volume Data for Simulation at the Intersection.

Approach Driving Volume(veh/h)
1
Name Direction Heavy-Vehicle Medium-Vehicle Light-Vehicle
LT 0 2 43
East Bound TH 11 9 191
RT 0 1 72
LT 9 4 46
West Bound TH 9 7 223
RT 1 5 70
LT 0 10 34
South Bound TH 25 26 229
RT 0 5 35
LT 0 3 38
North Bound TH 23 6 233
RT 8 2 34
1. Permitted Indication: Left-turning = LT, Through = TH, Right-turning = RT.

Evaluation by using simulation. In this paper, based on the differences of this

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 563
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intersection before and after improvements, two road network models are
established by using vissim4.0 and volume data are input into the two models. The
evaluation results are listed in Table 4.

Table 4. The Evaluation Results.

Average Delay Average Stop Delay Volume
Evaluation Index Average Stops
(s) (s) （veh/h）
Before Improvement 17.7 14.9 0.51 1201
After Improvement 15.4 12.7 0.57 1312

After setting up a left-turn lane and operating a protected left-turn phase at the
intersection, not only are the diverging conflicts caused by left-turning vehicles and
through vehicles towards the same direction removed, but also the LTC, which
means that the safety at the intersection has been greatly improved. Meanwhile,
from Table 4, it can be seen that the efficiency of the vehicles at the intersection has
been improved to some degree.

6. CONCLUSION
In sum, after surveying the conflicts occurring at two-phase intersections and
diagnosing various types of conflicts by using the method of identifying dangerous
conflicts, the safety level has been enhanced and the operation efficiency of vehicles
has been improved by operating a protected left-turn phase at the approaches where
dangerous conflict exists. This indicates that the conflict technique is an efficient
tool for analyzing traffic safety problems for specific sites and it is also valuable to
select signal phasing effectively.

REFERENCES
Mohamed A, Abdel-Aty A, Essam Rad-Wan (2000). “Modeling traffic accident
occurrence and involvement.” Accident Analysis and Prevention, 32(5),
633-642.
Hoong-Chor Chin , Ser-Tong Quek (1997). “Measurement of traffic conflicts.”
Safety Science, 26(3). 169-185.
Hummer, J.E. (1994). “Traffic conflict studies.” Manual of Transportation
Engineering Studies. Institution of Transportation Engineers, Prentice-
Hall.
Agent, K.R., N. Stamatiadis and B. Dyer (1995). “Guidelines for the Installation of
Left-Turn Phasing” .Research Report KTC-95-23, Kentucky
Transportation Center, University of Kentucky, Lexington.
Parker, M.R. Jr., and C.V. Zegeer (1988). Traffic Conflict Techniques for Safety and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 564
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Operations: Engineers Guide. Report FHWA-IP-88-026, FHWA, U.S.

Department of Transportation, Washington, DC.
Wadsworth, H.M (1990). Statistical Methods for Engineers and Scientists. McGraw-
Hill Inc., New York.
Geoffrey Ho, Principle (2004). “Traffic Conflict Technique for Intersection Safety
Analysis”, Road Safety Seminar organized by the Public Works
Department of Malaysia and the Road Engineering Association of
Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 565
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Cause Analysis of At-Grade Intersection Accidents and Grading Improvement

Methods Research of Highways in Plain Area
Yu CHEN1

1
Research Iinstitute of Highway Ministry of Transport, Road Safety Research Center,
8 Xituchenglu, Haidian District, Beijing, China, ZIP 100088; PH (86) 010-62364459;
FAX (86) 010-62363428; email: yu.chen@rioh.cn

ABSTRACT
At-grade intersection is one of the black points of highways in plain areas,
and it is a key section of highway safety improvement. Improving safety for
intersections and avoiding traffic accidents can effectively improve road safety of the
plain area highway. The accident data of plain areas in Shandong Province from 2003
to 2006 was collected; accident type and the accident frequencies of different driving
directions in at-grade intersections were analyzed based on statistical methods; the
causes of at-grade intersection accidents were analyzed based on accident data
statistics and at-grade intersection investigations of highways in plain areas;
at-grade intersection grading methods were proposed based on the technical grade,
traffic volume of crossing roads and the role in the network, and key points to
improve the safety of different grade intersections were proposed.

INTRODUCTION
The density of a highway network and the highway grade is high in plain
areas, and as a result, the at-grade intersections are numerous and serried. Due to the
vehicles that collect, turn and pass through at at-grade intersections, there are a lot of
conflicts between the different directions of traffic flows. Pedestrians, non-motorized
vehicles, motorcycles and even motorized vehicles from the crossing road which
go across the highway interfere with main-road traffic flow. All of the above lead to
traffic accidents. Through accident analysis, the accident rate of at-grade
intersections on plain areas is obviously higher than the other sections of the highway.
In the years 2003 to 2006, the accidents at intersections accounted for about 66% of
the total accidents; the accidents which caused a fatality in an intersection accounted
for about 81% and the accident rate was about 13.93 per kilometer. Therefore, the
at-grade intersections are traffic accident black locations and high risk sections on the
plain area highways. As a result, it is very important to improve the intersection
safety.
The author analyzed the accident data of highway G105 and G220 from the
years 2003 to 2006, and integrated speed control, right of way, main road priority and
traffic channelization to propose the grading improvement methods.

ACCIDENT CAUSE ANALYSIS OF PLAIN AREA AT-GRADE

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 566
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INTERSECTIONS
Characteristics analysis of at-grade intersections with high accident rate.
Based on the dual variable interval filtering method, this paper analyzed the traffic
accidents black points with the standards of 95 percent, and with reference to the
field survey, the characteristics of high risk intersections are as follow:
l Well pavement situation, high speed, high traffic volume, serious speeding

problem, and lack of effective speed control measures.

l Poor sight distance, the plants or buildings influence the intersection sight

distance, especially in summer.

l The traffic signs at intersections donot constitute a system, lack of the

necessary signs, unobvious right of way.

l Unclear channelization, vehicle trajectory, multiple conflicts.

Figure 1. Intersections Lacked Safety Measures.

Accident cause analysis. Head-on and sidewipe are the most common at
at-grade intersections of plain area. Head-on accidents account for 33%, and
sidewipes account for 42% and together totaled 75%. As a result, the causes of
head-ons and sidewipes are the important safety problems which need to be
addressed urgently.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 567
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Figure 2. Accident Type Analysis of Plain Area At-Grade Intersections.

For the convenience of accident cause analysis, the author extracted and
analyzed the accident data of different directions of traffic flow, as shown in Figure 3.
In the at-grade intersections of highways in plain area, the crossing accidents were
the highest, and accounted for 55.17%. The second highest one was turning accidents
which accounted for 22.99%. The crashes with the same direction of vehicles
accounted for 11.49%, and the crashes with opposite direction of vehicles accounted
for 10.34%.

Figure 3. The Distribution of Intersection Accidents.

Turning accidents: The left turning accidents accounted for 79.84% of all
turning accidents, and all the serious injury and deaths of the turning accidents. The
head-on accidents caused by left turning attributed to the scrambling for the
right-of-way between the left turning vehicles and through traffic flow, or between
the through traffic flows and the opposite through traffic flow. Also, the vehicles that
have a permissive left increase the conflicts. It is one of the major factors that
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increase the risk of intersections. The right turning accidents took place in the
process of merge and divide when the vehicles of inside lanes change lanes to turn
right, and the right-hand vehicles merge into the through traffic flows.
Crossing accidents: The accidents that involved agricultural vehicles,
motorcycles, pedestrians and bicycles accounted for 62.5% in the crossing accidents.
It shows that the complex vehicle composition caused more complex intersection
traffic conditions, and coupled with some traffic participants that do not have a
strong sense of safety, it caused a high rate of crossing accidents. According to data
analysis, the main reasons could be summarized as follows:
l The scrambling for the right-of-way;

l High speed: it is too fast to avoid dangers, including the interferance from

the vehicles speeding from the crossing roads;

l Poor sight distance: drivers cannot see the vehicles from crossing roads at

the intersection approaches.

The crashes with opposite direction vehicles: The head-on crashes caused by
two vehicles from the opposite direction account for 34%. The consequences of such
accidents are very serious. The root cause of this kind of accident is the poor traffic
order in intersections.
The crashes with the same direction vehicles: This kind of accident mainly
contributes to the sidewipes and rear-ends between two vehicles in the same
approach. The sidewipes are mainly attributed to lane changing on intersection
approaches. There are two causes of rear-ends: one is the sudden brake and turn of
the head vehicle caused by emergency situations; the other one is the sudden brake
and turn caused by that the driver was not clear about the route or suddenly realized
the wrong path.
In summary, the major causes of at-grade intersection accidents in plain area are
the high speed, poor sight distance, unclear about right-of-way, and imperfect
channelization. Aimed at the major causes above, the measures proposed are as
follows:
l To address the high speed: speed limit or speed control facilities are

needed.
l To address the poor sight distance: the obstacles should be eliminated and

the visibility of intersections should be guaranteed.

l Specific to the unclear right-of-way and imperfect channelization:

elaborate design of channelization, traffic signs and markings are desired.

AT-GRADE INTERSECTION GRADING AND IMPROVEMENTS
The density of highways is high in the plain area, as a result the at-grade
intersections are numerous and serried. Due to the difference of crossing roads’
grading, there are wide gaps on the operating characteristics and safety requirements.
This paper proposes the grading methods, and key points of safety improvements.
At-grade intersections grading standards. According to the crossing roads
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grade and volume, the at-grade intersections can be divided into four grades, A, B, C,
and D.
A-grade intersections are the intersections crossed by two first class highways, a
first class highway and a second class highway, or two second class highways with
the annual average daily traffic volume of more than 7000veh.
B-grade intersections are the intersections crossed by a first class highway and a
second class highway, a second class highway and a third class highway, two second
class highways with two lanes and the annual average daily traffic volume of less
than 7000veh, or two third class highways with the annual average daily traffic
volume of more than 3500veh.
C-grade intersections are the first class, second class and third class highways
crossed by fourth class highways or external highways with traffic volume more than
200veh/d, two third class highways crossed with the annual average daily traffic
volume of less than 3500veh, two fourth class highways crossed, or two external
highways crossed with the annual average daily traffic volume of more than 200veh.
D-grade intersections are the external highways with the annual average daily
traffic volume of less than 200veh or other paths (accesses to farmland, units, or
communities) that cross the other highways, also known as accesses.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 570
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Table 1. At-grade intersection grading.

4th class
external
highways
highways
and external
with traffic
1st class 2nd class 3rd class highways
volume less
highways highways highways with traffic
than
volume more
200veh/d and
than
other paths①
200veh/d
1st class
Ａ A B C D
highways②
2nd class
A A、B B C D
highways
3rd class
B B B、C C D
highways
4th class
highways and
External
Highways with C C C C D
traffic volume
more than
200veh/d
External
Highways with
traffic volume
D D D D ――
less than
200veh/d and
other paths①
① Other paths are the accesses to farmland, units, or communities.
② 1st class highways including the highways with separation and without separation.
The focus of improvements at A-grade intersections. The characteristics of
A-grade intersections are high grade crossing roads, high vehicle speed, large traffic
volume, and big intersection size. A-grade intersections could be well channelized
according to traffic volume from different directions, and would make sure the
direction with larger volume goes smoothly and has the priority. Also, it would
separate the traffic conflict area as much as possible. At the intersection with a high
percentage of turning volume, the channelization and turning lanes could be set to
separate the turning traffic from the through traffic in advance, thus reducing the
conflict and interweaving. Left turn diversion markings would also help the drivers
to turn smoothly. It could also help to fix the conflict points at a relatively fixed
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 571
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position, which simplifies the operation of intersections. The integrated 3-class

information prompting system of a network with intersection advance notice, path
instructions and direction confirmation is proposed.
The focus of improvements at B-grade intersections. Compared to A-grade
intersections, the road grades are lower, traffic volume is relatively large, and the
grade gap between two crossing roads is wide in B-grade intersections. The priority
at B-grade intersections should be giving priority to the main road. The priority
should be fixed according to traffic volume at the intersections where there is little
difference between the two crossing highways. Also, setting speed control facilities
and channelization islands at approaches without priority to slow down the approach
speeds to the intersection.
The focus of improvements at C-grade intersections. There is an obvious
distinction between the main road and crossing road at C-grade intersections, where
the main road has a largetraffic volume, and the crossing road has a lower grade. The
key points of C-grade intersections safety improvements are emphasizing the priority
and reducing the interference between the main-road traffic flow and crossing road.
l Setting yield and slow signs and markings at the approaches of the

crossing road, to make sure the main road has the priority.
l Setting speed humps and markings at intersections with high accident rates

to reduce vehicle speed near the intersection.

The focus of improvements at D-grade intersections. D-grade
intersections, also known as access intersections, have the characteristics of a wide
gap between crossing roads, and a big interference with main-road traffic flow of the
vehicles or pedestrians from the access road. Direct access is one of the
characteristics of the plain area highways, and it brings a higher risk of the vehicles
or pedestrians from the access road interfering with main-road traffic flow, where
pedestrians, non-motorized vehicles, motorcycles and even motorized vehicles from
crossing road dangerously cross the highway.
Its safety improvements could focus on:
l Setting traffic facilities to call drivers’ attention to accesses at the roadside,

and prepare for avoiding vehicles from the crossing road.

l Setting stop signs or yield signs on the crossing road approaches to make

sure the main road has priority.

l Setting physical facilities to limit vehicle speed, to avoid vehicles jumping

into the main road.

CONCLUSION
Traffic accidents on highways of plain areas are mostly grouped at at-grade
intersections, so improving the safety of at-grade intersections is very important to
highway safety improvements as well as the highway network. Based on a survey of
traffic accidents of plain area highways, this paper analyzed the cause of traffic
accidents at at-grade intersections, proposed grading safety improvement methods
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 572
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for the intersection and made the improvement focuses vary with the different
characteristics of different grades. It was aimed at providing proposals and references
to highway managers and designers.
REFERENCES
Gao Hailong, He Yong, Li Changcheng, Li Xuetao. (2005) “Effects and Measures of
Road Safety Enhancement Project in China”. Symposium of International
Road Safety Conference. Nov.
Liu Hongqi. He Yong. (2005) “Discussion on the Characteristic and Scheme of the
Road Safety Ensure Project in the Plain District”. Symposium of
International Road Safety Conference. Nov.
Liu Hongqi, Shen Tao, Wu Yun, Zhang Weihan, Wang Fang. (2008) “Research on
Channelization Design Methods of Unsignalized Highway At-grade
Intersection”. Highway. Nov.
Mi Xiaoyi, Luo Xiaohui, Zhang Tiejun, Wu Lingtao. (2008) “Accidents
Characteristics and Distribution Rules of a Certain First Grade Highway in
Plain Area”. Highways & Automotive Applications. Jun.
Yang Kai, Xu Hui. Lin Wei. (2006) “Safety Analysis and Improvement of At-grade
Intersections in Flat Area”. China Safety Science Journal. Nov.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 573
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A Technique for Escape Ramp Location Determination

in China’s Mountain Area Expressway

Jian ZHOU1, Qingxia LIU2, Hua CHAI1 and Ronggui ZHOU1

1
Highway Engineering Research Center, Research Institute of Highway Ministry of
Transport, No.8 Xi Tucheng Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100088; PH (8610)
6236-1962; FAX (8610) 6236-1962; email: j.zhou@rioh.cn
2
CCCC Road and Bridge Consultants Co. LTD, No.240 Hui Xinli, Chaoyang
District, Beijing, 100029; PH (8610) 6478-9898; FAX (8610) 6478-9898; email:
lqxzj2000@163.com

ABSTRACT
During road design, rational location of the escape ramp is one of the most
effective measures to guarantee passengers safety and reduce road accident losses on
long continuous downgrade road sections. It attracts considerable attention, and has
been widely applied in China; however, the effectiveness of escape ramp mainly
relies on the appropriateness of the location. Currently, the configuration of an
escape ramp is mainly based on vehicle performance on long downgrade section,
and construction constraints and costs are the major considerations in China;
whereas, lack of considerations on drivers’ safety and psychological factors, and
poor management result in low functioning escape ramps. In this paper, an
integrated technique of escape ramp configuration which covers speed management
measures, brake drum temperature, emergency stopping demand as well as rest area
configuration, are discussed based on the Hebei-Shanxi Expressway. The technique
will hopefully be a good guideline for safety facility design on long continuous
downgrade road sections in the future.

INTRODUCTION
With the implementation of development of the western regions strategy,
expressways are being massively constructed in China’s mountainous area. Applying
an escape ramp on long continuous downgrade road sections in mountainous areas is
the most effective measure to reduce critical traffic accidents caused by invalid
brake of heavy goods vehicles. In 1956, the first escape ramp was built in California,
USA, and 170 escape ramps were constructed around America up to 1990 (HE Yu-
long et al., 2005). Based on practical experiences, the special provisions of escape
ramp were proposed in A policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets
(AASHTO, 2004). In China, the application of escape ramps was started later and
developed rapidly. Since construction of the first escape ramp on the Badaling
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Expressway in Beijing, more than 80 escape ramps have been built, and the safety
level has been largely promoted (LI Xue-feng, 2009).
However, because of the lack of practical experiences and research on escape
ramps, no uniform criteria can be followed. Therefore, there are many difficult
points on some existing escape ramps. The most critical issues are the irrational
location of escape ramps and the lack of corresponding proactive safety facilities.
Technical Standard of the Highway Engineering (JTG B01-2003) states that an
escape ramp is required on potential safety segments along continuous long steep
downgrade section (Expressway Bureau of MOC China, 2004). In the Highway
Design Guidelines under Flexibility, only principles of escape ramp setting location
are presented, there are still no specific configuration steps (Expressway Bureau of
MOC China, 2005). At present, for expressways in construction, the escape ramp
location is still subjectively decided by highway engineers according to geographical
constraints and construction costs during the design phrase (CHEN You-liang et al.,
2009). It usually leads to irrational locations, and escape ramp cannot reach expected
functions. Because of the huge investment and high maintenance cost, the rational
location of the escape ramp becomes more critical.

FACTORS AFFECTING THE LOCATION OF ESCAPE RAMPS

According to the operation experience of an expressway, the escape ramp
location is closely related with brake drum temperature, location of invalid braking,
drivers’ safety consciousness for using rest areas, the configuration of rest areas and
speed management on downgrade sections.
Brake Drum Temperature and Invalid Brake Location
During the process of driving on down grade sections, the braking system
must absorb heat energy transferred from potential energy to keep driving safely on
a downgrade under expected speeds. Therefore, in order to guarantee driving safety
during continuous downgrades, adequate brake force is needed at the end of
downgrade sections, which requires that the whole brake energy must be absorbed
by the brake system during this period.
The braking efficiency will be relatively stable only if the braking
temperature does not surpass the maximum working temperature of the friction slip.
After the working temperature is higher than 300 degrees, a sharp decline of the
friction coefficient appears unstable, and it will lead to heat regression. The analysis
concludes that braking will be safe when the temperature is below 200 degrees, and
will be basically in a safe condition between 200~300 degrees, and will be not safe
over 300 degrees.
Zhou Ronggui and others at the Research Institute of Highway Ministry of
Transport established the correspondence between brake temperature and the
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braking effectiveness of a vehicle and the relationship model among the brake
temperature and longitudinal gradient, speed, load weight and other index by field
trial (verification at the automotive field and outdoor field respectively) of removing
other affecting factors (ZHOU Ronggui et al., 2003).

DT = 0.2 ´ 10 -11 M 2S2i 2 + 3.855 ´ 10-5 MSi

Where: M=Total Mass (kg); S=Slope Length (m); i=Longitudinal Gradient (%)

Based on the model as well as verification at automotive field and an outdoor

experimental vehicle, a downgrade brake temperature prediction professional model
was achieved which can be used to initially ascertain escape ramp location during
design phase.
The Safety Consciousness and Configuration of Rest Area
Rest areas are for temporary parking, rest and repairing. The psychological
stress of the driver during the continuous down grade driving can be significantly
eased, and the braking effectiveness of heavy good vehicle can be resumed. At the
same time, providing the slope, slope length, horizontal alignment and other
information, and identifying the location and amount of the escape ramps, rest areas
and other facilities can help to direct the drivers to guarantee driving safety.
Therefore, rest demand in rest area must be taken into consideration during escape
ramp configuration. Moreover, as a proactive safety measure on long downgrade
section, rest areas should be located on the upstream of escape ramp, and heavy
goods vehicles must be asked drive into rest area for repairing.
Down Grade Speed Management
During driving on downgrade sections, all the potential energy transforms
into heat energy. Some of the heat energy is absorbed and transformed into internal
energy, which leads to temperature increase of brake; meanwhile, other parts of it
distribute onto the road surface, wheels, air or transfers to the body of vehicle
through the brake. However, because of the limitation of heat transferring speed by
brake, heat accumulation at the brake happens under the circumstance of steady
downgrade of the vehicle with steady speed. When the vehicle operates at high
speed on a downgrade, all kinetic energy is transferred to heat energy in quite a short
time, then a traffic accident caused by invalid braking will happen. Therefore,
downgrade speed is the most influential factor for escape ramp configuration. Speed
management will be required, and the escape ramp configuration must be installed
based on speed limits.

THE PRACTICAL PROJECT

The Route Plan
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The total length of the Hebei-Shanxi expressway is 83.365km. The design

speed from the start point to Luluo Interchange is 100km/h, and from Luluo to
termination is 80km/h. It is a four-lane two-way expressway. This project is located
a mountainous area. To the west of Longquan Temple, because of the geographical
elevation difference for crossing province boundary, there is no way to avoid the
long downgrade section from provincial boundary eastward to the territory of Hebei
Province. The continuous downgrade section from K90+116.596 to K47+040 is
43.076km long in total. Especially in the section of K69+330-K64+640, the average
longitudinal gradient is 2.6%, and the section of K52+610-K47+040 is 2.4%.
Traffic Composition
According to the transportation analysis and prediction results of the
Feasibility Study Report of the Hebei-Shanxi Expressway Project, the traffic
composition is shown in the table below.

Table 1. Traffic Composition.

Vehicle Passenger Small Medium Big Truck in
Bus Trailer
Type Car Truck Truck Truck Total
Proportion 35.0% 3.3% 19.1% 9.3% 31.5% 1.8% 42.6%

Escape Ramp Design

In order to avoid a critical accident and secondary accident for an out-of-
control vehicle on long downgrade sections, two escape ramps were located at
K72+640 and K64+160.

LOCATION DETERMINATION OF ESCAPE RAMP ON THE HEBEI-

SHANXI EXPRESSWAY
The transportation statistics indicate that trucks take up 60% of all the
vehicles and of that the large and medium size trucks take up more than 40%. At the
same time, in the project-affected zone, the amount of empty trucks is relatively
small and the overloaded truck is common. Based on the safety considerations and
research of brake capacity on the long downgrade sections, regarding the
consultation of domestic automobile manufacturers, the checking and evaluation of
position and quantity of escape ramp and facilities will be investigated and evaluated
taking the heavy goods vehicles of which the load weight is over 60 tons as the most
unfavorable model.
In this project, the mainline toll plaza, service area and overload inspection
station are implemented at K70+200. After the repair of trucks, the brake efficiency
can be resumed and safety level of truck can be promoted. For the continuous
downgrade section, it should be designed respectively in segments with service area
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and overload inspection station. The estimated results of brake temperature are as
below.

Table 2. Brake Drum Temperature-1.

Start End Gradient Length Brake Temperature
Segment
Station Station (%) (m) (℃)
1 K90+116 K80+800 -1.90 9316.6 144.6
2 K80+800 K74+140 -2.00 666 222.5
3 K74+140 K73+610 -1.70 530 254.5
4 K73+610 K72+925 -2.50 685 294.0
Length: 17191.596m

According to the above table, when the vehicle arrives at point K72+925,
17.2 KM to the top of the downgrade section, brake temperature reaches 294.0° and
reaches the controlling temperature 290°. There is a risk of invalid braking. At the
point K72+640 of this project, 285 meters down stream, an escape ramp is settled
rationally. Taking consciousness of invalid braking of the vehicle into consideration,
the emergency lay-off area is settled near to K73+850 before the escape ramp.
However, the requirement for vehicle maintenance and brake cooling and the active
role in decreasing the accident rate during the long downgrade section by rest area
acting as active safety measures, it is suggested to extend the emergency lay-off area
to a rest area for supplying space and relative service to the heavy goods vehicles.

Table 3. Brake Drum Temperature-2.

Start End Gradient Length Brake Temperature
Segment
Station Station （%） （m） （℃）
1 K72+925 K72+245 -1.10 680 60.8
2 K72+245 K70+810 -2.50 1435 118.2
3 K70+810 K70+260 -0.60 550 143.4
4 K70+260 K70+200 -1.70 60 176.0
5 K70+200 K69+450 -1.70 750 65.9
6 K69+450 K68+070 -2.50 1380 122.1
7 K68+070 K67+270 -3.40 800 177.2
8 K67+270 K65+525 -2.00 1745 220.2
9 K65+525 K64+640 -3.30 885 273.4
10 K64+640 K63+570 -1.10 1070 294.3
Length： 9355m

The vehicle continues the down grounding after the maintenance at the
previous parking area, and there is a risk of braking failure when the brake
temperature reaches 294.3° surpassing the controlling temperature at the point of
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K63+570, 26.5km to the top of the downgrade section. An escape ramp is settled at
the upstream K64+160, 590 meters to the braking failure point and the setting is
basically rational. It is proposed to add an active safety facility—simplified parking
area near ZK62 considering the favorable terrain.

Table 4. Brake Drum Temperature-3.

Start End Gradient Length Brake Temperature
Segment
Station Station （%） （m） （℃）
1 K63+570 K62+440 -2.60 1130 85.0
2 K62+440 K61+680 -1.00 760 113.0
3 K61+680 K58+560 -1.70 3120 158.0
4 K58+560 K57+920 -1.10 640 185.9
5 K57+920 K57+090 -1.80 830 220.4
6 K57+090 K56+060 0.75 1030 215.7
7 K56+060 K55+390 -1.30 670 244.0
8 K55+390 K54+510 -0.30 880 257.4
9 K54+510 K53+350 -1.90 1160 291.7
Length：10220m

According to the above table, there is a risk of braking inefficiency when the
vehicle arrives at K53+350 and the brake temperature reaches 291.7°; however,
there are no active or passive facilities near this section. It is proposed to set an
escape ramp at K53+500 regarding to geographical conditions. At the same time, the
brake temperature reaches 257.4° at K54+510 and some drivers will be aware of the
decrease of brake depression. It is suggested to locate a simplified parking area near
to K55 considering the geographical condition for the maintenance of the vehicle
and cooling of the brake.
Table 5. Brake Drum Temperature-4.
Start End Gradient Length Brake Temperature
Segment
Station Station （%） （m） （℃）
1 K53+350 K52+610 -1.25 740 62.3
2 K52+610 K52+135 -3.50 475 109.8
3 K52+135 K51+565 -0.30 570 132.3
4 K51+565 K51+085 -3.30 480 177.3
5 K51+085 K50+675 -0.60 410 203.3
6 K50+675 K50+070 -3.20 605 249.2
7 K50+070 K49+260 -0.70 810 268.7
8 K49+260 K48+610 -3.60 650 318.0
Length： 4740m
According to the above table, there is a risk of invalid braking when the
vehicle arrives at K48+610 and the brake temperature reaches 318.0° which is over
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 579
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the controlled temperature. Since there is no safety facility near to this section, it is
proposed to set an escape ramp at K49 based on geographical conditions. Moreover,
brake temperature reaches 268.7° at K49+260, a simplified rest area is needed near
to K49+200 to meet the requirements of vehicle maintenance.
In conclusion, two escape ramps and four simplified rest areas are suggested
to be located during the long downgrade section in this project based on variation of
brake temperature of the heavy goods vehicles during the continuous downgrade
section. The specific settings and locations of escape ramp and rest area of the whole
section is illustrated in the figure below.

Figure 1. Location of escape ramps and rest areas.

SPEED MANAGEMENT ON LONG CONTINUOUS DOWNGRADE ROAD
SECTIONS
The brake temperature variation of the vehicles of load weight 20 ton, 35 ton,
50 ton, and 60 ton is calculated based on the research and experiment of brake
performance during the long downgrade sections, and consultation with the
domestic automobile manufactures, combining with the traffic composition in the
feasibility study of the project. Based on the scientific research of the projects,
taking the inefficient brake temperature threshold of 290° as the controlling norm,
the calculation results are as below:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 580
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Table 6. Brake Drum Temperature.

20ton 35ton 40ton 50ton 60ton
Start End Gradient Length
40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/
Station Station (%) (m)
h h h h h h h h h h
K90+ K80+
-1.90 9316.6 30.0 30.0 24.8 37.6 43.9 59.0 82.1 101.8 120.3 144.6
117 800
K80+ K74+
-2.00 6660 30.0 30.0 29.2 51.5 58.7 85.7 117.6 154.1 176.6 222.5
800 140
K74+ K73+
-1.70 530 30.0 30.0 35.6 67.9 66.6 105.3 128.7 179.9 190.8 254.5
140 610
K73+ K72+
-2.50 685 30.0 30.0 46.0 88.2 79.4 129.3 146.1 211.7 212.8 294.0
610 925
K72+ K72+
-1.10 680 30.0 30.0 47.9 99.7 82.3 143.4 151.1 230.9 219.9
925 245
K72+ K70+
-2.50 1435 30.0 30.0 59.8 120.1 97.5 168.6 172.8 265.6 248.2
245 810
K70+ K70+
-0.60 550 30.0 30.0 60.1 129.9 98.4 180.5 175.1 281.7 251.7
810 260
K70+ K69+
-1.70 810 30.0 30.0 64.4 143.0 104.2 196.5 183.7 303.5 263.2
260 450
K69+ K68+
-2.50 1380 30.0 30.0 75.2 161.2 117.8 218.9 203.1 288.3
450 070
K68+ K67+
-3.40 800 30.0 31.0 90.6 185.3 136.2 247.3 227.4
070 270
K67+ K65+
-2.00 1745 30.0 31.0 92.6 193.4 140.0 258.5 234.8
270 525
K65+ K64+
-3.30 885 30.0 31.0 107.4 216.2 157.6 285.5 258.0
525 640
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 581
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

20ton 35ton 40ton 50ton 60ton

Start End Gradient Length
40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/
Station Station (%) (m)
h h h h h h h h h h
K64+ K63+
-1.10 1070 30.0 31.0 102.7 218.8 153.1 289.6 253.8
640 570
K63+ K62+
-2.60 1130 30.0 31.0 112.0 235.0 164.5 269.6
570 440
K62+ K61+
-1.00 760 30.0 31.0 110.2 241.0 163.0 268.6
440 680
K61+ K58+
-1.70 3120 30.0 31.0 97.3 227.7 150.3 256.3
680 560
K58+ K57+
-1.10 640 30.0 31.0 98.0 236.4 151.5 258.5
560 920
K57+ K57+
-1.80 830 30.0 31.0 101.5 246.9 156.0 264.9
920 090
K57+ K56+
0.75 1030 30.0 31.0 81.4 232.7 133.5 237.8
090 060
K56+ K55+
-1.30 670 30.0 31.0 83.4 242.0 136.2 241.8
060 390
K55+ K54+
-0.30 880 30.0 31.0 75.9 240.5 128.1 232.4
390 510
K54+ K53+
-1.90 1160 30.0 31.0 79.7 248.8 133.0 239.6
510 350
K53+ K52+
-1.25 740 30.0 31.0 80.8 256.4 134.6 242.2
350 610
K52+ K52+
-3.50 475 30.0 32.6 93.7 277.0 149.5 261.2
610 135
K52+ K51+ -0.30 570 30.0 33.0 91.4 281.8 147.2 258.7
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 582
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

20ton 35ton 40ton 50ton 60ton

Start End Gradient Length
40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/ 40km/ 60km/
Station Station (%) (m)
h h h h h h h h h h
135 565
K51+ K51+
-3.30 480 30.0 33.0 103.2 160.9 276.2
565 085
K51+ K50+
-0.60 410 30.0 33.0 104.8 162.8 278.9
085 675
K50+ K50+
-3.20 605 30.0 33.0 116.6 176.6 296.6
675 070
K50+ K49+
-0.70 810 30.0 33.0 111.9 171.6
070 260
K49+ K48+
-3.60 650 30.0 36.5 126.1 188.0
260 610
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 583
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

According to the calculation of brake temperature variation of trucks with

load weights 20 ton, 35 ton, 40 ton, 50 ton and 60 ton on the downgrade, it shows
that
(1) When the load weight of a 35 ton truck drives down at 40km/h, the
maximum temperature is 146.5°, while down grading at 60km/h, at the 39km away
from the top of the slope, the brake temperature reaches 281.8° which is near to the
controlled temperature 290° and there is a risk of invalid braking.
(2) When the 40 ton truck drives down grade at 40km/h, the maximum
temperature is 211.9°, while speed is 60km/h, at the point 26.5 km far away from the
top of the section, the brake temperature reaches 289.6°, there is a risk of invalid
braking.
(3) When the load weight rises to 50 ton or 60 ton, the brake temperature
reaches the controlling temperature 290° regardless the vehicle down grade at
40km/h or 60km/h.
In summary, during the continuous down grade section, the brake temperature is
closely correlated with the driving speed and load weight. The invalid brake ratio is
quite low while the vehicle with less than 35 ton load weight drives below 60km/h.
The ratio is slim by stopping in the rest area and vehicle maintenance above 35 ton
in load weight while down grading at 40km/h. Based on the above conclusions,
speed management are being taken for vehicles of different load weights during the
continuous down grade section.

CONCLUSION
Through the calculation of the break temperature, parking area location and
long down ground speed limitations, the confirmation steps for the location of the
escape ramps at the mountain expressways are as below:
First Step: Definition of long continuous downgrade section. When the
average longitudinal gradient and slope length exceed the following values for long
continuous downgrade sections: 2%-15km, 2.5%-7.5km, 3%-3.5km, 4%-2.5km,the
downgrade section cannot be considered as two sections when there is short reverse
slope or long gentle slope; and it is a whole continuous long downgrade section.
Second Step: Calculating brake drum temperature to estimate the initial
location of escape ramps. Enter the vehicle total mass, downgrade speed, vertical
alignment parameters, and the brake drum temperature can be calculated in varied
environment temperature, brake drum initial temperature, load condition and
continuous brake type. Selecting 300 degree as the threshold value, the location of
the first escape ramp and rest area can be determined. Setting the truck driving into
the first rest area to repair as the pre-condition, the brake drum temperature will be
estimated from the rest area again, and the locations of all the downstream escape
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 584
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

ramps can be ascertained.

Third Step: Final configuration of escape ramp due to construction
constraints. Based on the lowest cost rule, the optimum location of escape ramp
which is near to the preliminary site is the final location.
Fourth Step: Verification of load weight based speed management. The total
mass and speed during the temperature estimation are setting as the worst conditions.
According to software estimation, the allowable highest total mass is the value to
ensure the highest efficiency of escape ramp during speed increase.
Through the above steps, the location of escape ramps and other safety
facilities can be specified.

RECOMMENDATION FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

The drum temperature, drivers’ demand and rest area configuration and
speed management multi-criteria oriented methodology for escape ramps location
determination is widely applied on 11 expressways in Hebei, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang
and Yunnan Province. For the configuration of escape ramps during the design stage,
parking needs and traffic operation conditions should be observed after expressway
opening a certain time period, and the configuration of escape ramp can be improved.

REFERENCES
HE Yu-long, SUN Xiao-duan, LIU Xiao-ming, ZHAO Ming, HE Yong. (2005).
“Truck Escape ramp Application on Mountain Area Roads in USA.”
Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, No.3 Vol.3.
AASHTO. (2004). “A policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets.”
Washington, D.C. USA
LI Xue-feng. (2009). “Research on Setting Techniques of Truck Escape Ramp for
Mountaious Expressway.” Chongqing Jiaotong University. Master Degree
Thesis.
Expressway Bureau of MOC China. (2004). “Technical Standard of highway
Engineering (JTG B01-2003).” China Communications Press.
Expressway Bureau of MOC China. (2005). “Highway Design Guidelines Under
Flexibility.” China Communications Press.
CHEN You-liang, XIAO Ning. (2009). “Overview of Setup of Danger Shield
Driveway in Expressway.” Technology of Highway and Transport, No.3
ZHOU Rong-gu, SUN Jia-feng, WU Wan-yang. (2003). “Highway Longitudinal
Gradient and Grade Section Length Limitation.” 6:56, 70-71
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 585
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Vehicle’s Shock Absorbing Capacity and Roadway Rumble Strips

Shuzhan HOU1, Xiaoduan SUN2, Yulong HE3 and Junlei WANG4

1
PhD Candidate, Key Lab of Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing, 100124, P.R. China; email: hshu@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2
Professor, Key Lab of Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Technology,
Beijing, 100124, P.R. China; email: xdsun@bjut.edu.cn
3
Associate Professor, Key Lab of Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing, 100124, P.R. China; email: ylhe@bjut.edu.cn
4
PhD Candidate, Key Lab of Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing, 100124, P.R, China; email: wangjunlei@emails.bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Roadway rumble strips are used to reduce driving comfort and make drivers
decelerate. While vehicle suspension systems are designed for passengers’ comfort
by absorbing vibrations caused by bumping roadway surface, roadway rumble strips
are implemented to alert motorists to reduce speed. An efficient and safe roadway
rumble strips design depends on the understanding of the vehicles’ suspension
system. Newer marked vehicles always have better suspension system that can
absorb higher vibrations. This paper investigates the relationship between vehicle
suspension system and roadway rumble strips design through TruckSim, a computer
simulation model for trucks. The study analyzes the various shock-absorbing effect
of current popular vehicle suspension systems on the roadway rumble strips designs
in order to evaluate roadway rumble strips effectiveness in speed reduction.

BACKGROUND
There were 265,204 auto accidents in China in 2008. The direct financial cost
of these crashes was more than 1.01 billion Yuan. 73,484 people were killed and
304,919 people injured. Speeding-related crashes account for over 10.17% of these
auto accidents. 14.40% of killed people, 9.44% of injured people and 10.59% of the
direct financial cost of these crashes (M.P.S., 2008). Speeding is thus a danger to all
road users.
When researchers do their best for the improvement of the road safety, many
new methods and facilities are raised for application. Roadway rumble strips are a
speed limit feature for road safety and have an extensive application on the freeway
with sharp curves or long steep slopes. This article analyzes accelerations of seat
surface when trucks with different suspension systems pass over different roadway
rumble strips.
VEHICLE’S SHOCK ABSORBING CAPACITY
A vehicle’s suspension system connects it to its wheels and provides a more
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 586
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

comfortable ride by absorbing road shock and improving roll stability. New
suspensions come out while vehicle technology is developing and the shock
absorbing capacity is enhanced. At present, trucks always use leaf spring rigid axle
suspension, the flexibility and damping of which determine vertical vibration of
trucks(Bosch Inc., 2005). The shock absorbing capacity varies with different
parameters of the suspension. For example, the bigger the damping coefficient is, the
weaker the shock absorbing capacity is and the lower vibrations will be absorbed.

ROADWAY RUMBLE STRIPS

Roadway rumble strips are rows of raised pavement markers placed
perpendicularly to the direction of travel. The height of these strips is small and
ranges from 5 to 6 cm. Research has shown that roadway rumble strips are effective
at reducing speed. Roadway rumble strips can be created by adding thermoplastics or
cold-applied plastic rectangular raised pavement markers. As a vehicle passes over
the rumble strips, noise and vibration are produced alerting the driver to a substantial
speed reduction or an approaching hazard. Roadway rumble strips can be applied
with speed limit signs or speeding cameras. Commonly, on the Chinese freeway,
roadway rumble strips patterns are single strip, double strips or multiple strips and
they are placed for one group or multiple groups respectively.

SIMULATION ABOUT SHOCK ABSORBING CAPACITY AND ROADWAY

RUMBLE STRIPS
TruckSim is a software tool for simulating and analyzing the dynamic
behavior of medium to heavy trucks, buses, and articulated vehicles (Mechanical S.
Inc., 2005). This research gives a simulation that two trucks with unlike shock
absorbers pass over two kinds of roadway rumble strips with different widths and
intervals. Then four samples can be obtained. The driving comfort is analyzed among
the four samples. The parameters of TruckSim are set up as the Table 1.

Table 1. TruckSim Settings.

Item Parameter
Vehicle Pattern Two Axles Truck，see Table 2
Road Alignment Flat and Straight
Lane Number Two Lanes in Both Directions
Lane Width 3.75m
Road Surface Friction Coefficient 0.85
Location of Acceleration Sensor Driver’s Seat Surface
Speed 60km/h
Roadway Rumble Strips Pattern Single Strip, see Table 3
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 587
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Table 2. Parameters of the Trucks Used in Simulation.

Left Shock Absorber Right Shock Absorber
Truck No. Axles Load (kg)
(kN-s/m) (kN-s/m)
Truck 2A I 2 7648 30 30
Truck 2A II 2 7648 15 15

Table 3. Sizes of Roadway Rumble Strips.

Strips No. Width(cm) Interval(cm) Height(cm) Strips Number Group Number
I 20 20 5 6 1
II 45 45 5 6 1

Running the simulation model can obtain the simulation results which include
vertical, lateral and longitudinal acceleration data of the four samples. Only the
vertical acceleration results of the four samples are presented in Figure 1. Part A of
Figure 1 shows vertical acceleration changing when the Truck 2A I passes over the
Roadway Rumble Strips I, Part B shows vertical acceleration changing when the
Truck 2A I passes over the Roadway Rumble Strips II, Part C shows vertical
acceleration changing when the Truck 2A II passes over the Roadway Rumble Strips
I and Part D shows vertical acceleration changing when the Truck 2A II passes over
the Roadway Rumble Strips II.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 588
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Figure 1. Simulation Results of Acceleration Sensor in Vertical Direction.

SIMULATION RESULTS ANALYSIS

Roadway rumble strips cause occasional attacks to vehicles passed over them
and this can be calculated by the method of biquadratic vibration dosage value. see
the following equation (Li Gao, et al., 2007):
1
5 1 T 4
aw =  ∫0 [a w (t )] dt 
4

7 T
where:
a w =Frequency Weight Acceleration of one Axis, m / s 2

a w (t ) =Instantaneous Frequency Weight Acceleration of one Axis, m / s 2

T=Time, s

In the orthogonal coordinate system, the resultant frequency weighted

acceleration of X, Y, Z axis can be got from the following equation:
1
av = (k x2 a wx
2
+ k y2 a wy
2
+ k z2 a wz
2
)2
where:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 589
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

a wx , a wy , a wz =respectively means the frequency weighted accelerations of X

axis, Y axis and Z axis

k x , k y , k z =Direction Coefficient. For seating body, k x =1.4, k y =1.4 and

k z =1
Using the above equations, the resultant weighted accelerations of the four
samples on the seating surface are calculated by vertical, lateral, and longitudinal
acceleration data. The final results are shown in Table 4. Table 5 shows relationships
between the resultant weighted accelerations and people’s subjective sensations and
the simulation results of the samples mean some uncomfortable. With relation to the
same truck, the resultant weighted accelerations of the roadway rumble strips with
20cm-width and 20cm-interval is less than these of the roadway rumble strips with
45cm-width and 45cm-interval. And speaking of the same roadway rumble strips, the
resultant weighted accelerations of the truck with 30kN-s/m shock absorber is larger
than these of the truck with 15kN-s/m shock absorber. The larger the resultant
weighted acceleration is, the more uncomfortable the driver will sense and the
stronger the deceleration effect of roadway rumble strips will be. Vehicle’s shock
absorbing capacity should be taken account when designing roadway rumble strips.

Table 4. Resultant Weighted Accelerations of the Four Samples, m / s 2 .

Roadway Rumble Strips No.
Truck No.
I II
Truck 2A I 0.7390 0.9975
Truck 2A II 0.7193 0.8009

Table 5. Relationship between Resultant Weighted Acceleration and Subjective

Sensation (Li Gao, et al., 2007).
Resultant Weighted Acceleration av ( m / s 2 ) Subjective Sensation
Below 0.315 Comfortable
0.315～0.63 Little Uncomfortable
0.5～1 Some Uncomfortable
0.8～1.6 Uncomfortable
1.25～2.5 Very Uncomfortable
Above 2 Bad

CONCLUSIONS
The relationship between vehicle’s shock absorbing capacity and roadway
rumble strips is studied. Good shock absorbing capacity matches with the drivers’
good subjective sensation. The roadway rumble strips design should take this into
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 590
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consideration while working with the vehicle’s shock absorbing capacity to get a
better speed reduction effect. The later research will give more attention to the
relation curve between vehicle’s shock absorbing capacity and the width and interval
of roadway rumble strips.

REFERENCES
Bosch Inc. (2005). “Bosch Vehicle Engineering Manual.” Bai-Liang GU et al.
translated. Beijing Institute of Technology Press, Beijing.
Li Gao, et al.(2007). “Mechanical Vibration and Shock-Evaluation of Human
Exposure to Whole-Body Vibration (GB/T 13441.1-2007 ).”
Standardization Administration of P.R. China.
Mechanical Simulation Inc.(2005). “TruckSim Reference Manual ”. Ann Arbor, USA.
M.P.S. (2008). “Annual Abstract of Vehicle Accident in P.R. China ”. Beijing.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 591
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Improvement of Rate Quality Control Method in Identifying Hazardous

Locations

Jinyan LU1, 2 and Jiancheng WENG2

1
Lehman Center for Transportation Research, Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, Florida International University, 10555 W. Flagler
Street, Miami, Florida 33174; PH (305) 348-4102; email: jlu002@fiu.edu
2
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, No. 100
Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100124

ABSTRACT
Hazardous locations are sites with higher than expected frequency, rate, or
severity of crashes. Identifying hazardous locations is used in deducing underlying
causal factors and implementing potential countermeasures. A summary of typical
methods for identifying hazardous locations and the associated problems are
provided. The emphasis is placed on the rate quality control method. A brief
historical perspective on the development of the rate quality control method, its use
in identifying hazardous locations, and its strengths and weaknesses are presented.
The limitation of collected data from similar locations is discussed. An improvement
is provided to estimate the crash rate at the treated site where it is difficult to get
locations with similar characteristics associated with the rate quality control method.
The improvement is combining the rate quality control method with the Safety
Performance Function (SPF), which accounts for factors which probably have close
relationships to the crash rate at the treated site and the reference sites. A case study
is briefly described to show the improvement.

1. INTRODUCTION
Hazardous locations are sites where crash frequencies, calculated on the
basis of the same exposure data, are higher than the expected value for other similar
locations or conditions (Garber et al., 2002). Identifying hazardous locations is used
in deducing the underlying causal factors and implementing potential
countermeasures. Section 1401 of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient
Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) (Public Law 109-59)
amended Section 148 of Title 23, United States Code, to create the Highway Safety
Improvement Program (HSIP) is one of the Federal Highway Administration
(FHWA) “core” programs. The purpose of HSIP is to reduce traffic fatalities and
serious injuries on public roads. As part of HSIP, states are required to submit an
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 592
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

annual report describing no less than 5 percent of their highway locations exhibiting
the most severe safety needs. The intent of this provision is to raise public awareness
of the highway safety needs and challenges in the states. Several methods of
identifying hazardous locations are recommended and improved methods or a
combination are encouraged as well, based on the criteria that the method selected is
the best one for the state.
Various methods are available to identify hazardous locations that have
experienced a higher than expected frequency or rate of crash occurrence. Crash
frequency (Zegeer, 1986) is the simplest method for identifying high-hazard
locations. Locations are simply ranked by descending crash frequency, and those
with more than a predetermined number of crashes are classified as high crash
locations. This simple method has limited data requirements but does not account for
exposure. The crash rate (Morin, 1967) method is normally considered a better
indicator of risk than crash frequency because it takes exposure (traffic volume) into
the determination of high crash locations. However, it may result in a bias in favor
of low-volume locations that have relatively few crashes but a high crash rate. A
combination method called frequency-rate method (Laughland et al., 1975) attempts
to correct the biases of the crash frequency and crash rate methods. Rate quality
control compares the observed crash rate at each site with a critical crash rate for
similar locations. Sites that have crash rates greater than the critical crash rate are
identified as high-hazard locations. This method considers exposure and provides
the statistical reliability level, but does not take crash severity into account. The
equivalent property damage only (EPDO) method compares the relative importance
of crashes that result in property damage with that of injury and fatal crashes. Each
of the injury levels are given a weight that is compared against property-damage-
only crashes, which are given a weight of 1. This method does not account for
exposure. The methods mentioned above have all have the same weakness: they do
not account for regression-to-the-mean. To correct for the regression-to-the-mean
bias, the empirical Bayes (EB) method (Cheng et al., 2008; Shen et al., 2003) is
developed. The EB method combines the crash history data of a specific site with
the crash frequency predicted by a crash prediction model. The difference between
the observed crash count of a site and the expected count is called potential for
safety improvement (PSI). The locations with the largest PSI would be ranked
highest. No single method of identifying hazardous locations is universally superior.
All methods come with shortcomings and limits in application. This paper attempts
to improve upon a disadvantage of the rate quality control method which aims to
make the model reasonable and complete.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 593
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

2. RATE QUALITY CONTROL METHOD

The rate quality control method uses statistical concepts to determine
whether the actual crash rate of the treated location is abnormally high when
compared with the average rate of similar locations. If the actual (observed) crash
rate for the treated site is equal to or greater than the critical rate, the site is
considered as hazardous location. The statistical test is based on the assumptions that
crashes are rare events and that the probability of their occurrence can be
approximated by the Poisson distribution (Zegeer et al., 1977).
Statistical quality control techniques were originally developed as a means to
dynamically control the quality of industrial production (Stokes et al., 1996). Norden
et al. (Norden et al., 1956) proposed a method to analyze crash data for highway
sectiosn using industrial quality control techniques as referenced in 1956. The upper
and lower control limits of crash ratesare shown below:

λ 0.829 1
CLU = λ + 2.576 + + (1)
m m 2m

λ 0.829 1
CLL = λ − 2.576 + − (2)
m m 2m
where
CLU = upper control limit,
CLL = lower control limit,
λ = average crash rate for all similar locations (crashes/ 10 million vehicles/
mi), and
m = number of vehicles (vehicles/10million vehicle/mi).
Modified forms of the previous formulas were developed in the next several
years. The constant value 2.576 was used instead of K because different probability
0.829
levels were tested, and the term was omitted (Morin, 1967). The formula for
m
establishing the upper control limit is more widely used than the one for establishing
the lower control limit. The Rate Quality Control formula shown below is the most
generally used model to determine the critical crash rate (Seyfried, 2009).

λ 1
Rc = λ + K + (3)
m 2m
where
Rc = critical crash rate (crashes/ 100MVM),

λ = average crash rate for locations with characteristics similar to the subject
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 594
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location (crashes/ 100MVM),

K = constant corresponding to the confidence level, and
m = traffic volume at treated site (vehicles/100MVM).
If the actual crash rate for the treated site is greater than the critical rate, the
location is considered hazardous; the lower the value of K, the greater the chance
that a location will be identified as hazardous.
For the rate quality control method, λ should be the average crash rate for
locations with characteristics similar to the subject location. However, the definition
of “similar” is ambiguous. Because of the limitation of collected data, to capture
reference sites which have similar characteristics as the treated one may not be easy.
An expected crash rate model will be generated to improve the previous method.
Some roadway characteristics such as speed limit, lane width and pavement
condition are considered variables. Locations could be considered as reference sites
even if they have different roadway characteristics than the treated site.

3. METHODOLOGY
3.1 Model for Expected Crash Rate E (r )
A prediction model of E (r ) should be generated, where, E (r ) represents the
expected crash rate at reference sites. Factors (Hall et al., 1990) (Sawalha et al.,
2006) (Garber et al., 1991) which probably have close relationship to crash rate are
taken into account. Maximum speed limit, lane width, number of lanes, pavement
condition, and average daily traffic (ADT) are selected. Although ADT is already
taken into account in the expected crash rate E (r ) , it is selected as a factor because it
somewhat reflects the traffic flow characteristics and congestion level which may
impact the crash rate. It could be eliminated if the regression result shows it is not
significant.
By pretesting and box-cox transformation, the model with the format taking
natural logarithm to dependent variable, estimated crash rate, is proved as a proper
model. The estimate model of expected crash rate E (r ) on roadway segment
(crashes/100MVM) is as follows:
C
Ln[ E (r )] = Ln[ ] = β 0 + β1 ADT + β 2 S max + β 3 LW + β 4 N L + β 5 PaveCond
100 MVM
(4)
Thus,
C
E (r ) = = exp( β 0 + β1 ADT + β 2 S max + β 3 LW + β 4 N L + β 5 PaveCond )
100 MVM
(5)
where
C= number of reported crashes,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 595
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ADT × (number ⋅ of ⋅ days ⋅ in ⋅ study ⋅ period ) × L

100 MVM = (100 million
100,000,000

vehicle miles),
ADT = average daily traffic,
L = length of the segment (mi),
S max = maximum speed limit for the roadway section (mph),

LW = lane width (ft),

N L = number of lanes,

PaveCond = pavement condition,

β 0 = a constant, and

β1 , β 2, ..., β 5 = parameters of the independent variables, ADT, Smax, …,

PaveCond, respectively.
Data from Broward County are employed to calibrate the model. Six-
hundred eighty-four sets of data were collected from 45 state roads segments from
Broward County between 1990 and 2005. Sample data sets are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Sample road data sets of Broward County.

Average Max
Lane Pavemen Total Crash
Lengt Daily Spee Number
Widt t Crash Rate
Roadway Year h Traffic d of
h Conditio (crashes (crashes/
(mi) (veh./day (mph Lanes
(ft) n ) 100MVM)
) )
8600300 200 16950.0 107.5
0 5 0.90 0 35 11.5 4 3.5 6 1
8600500 200 29672.4 449.6
0 5 1.19 1 35 10.5 6 3.5 58 5
8600600 200 53256.5 329.5
0 5 7.16 5 40 11.6 6 3.8 459 1
……
8600300 200 16830.7 234.6
0 4 0.90 7 45 11.5 4 3.5 13 0
8600500 200 27833.3 462.8
0 4 1.19 3 35 10.5 6 3.5 56 3
8600600 200 51596.9 294.9
0 4 7.16 8 40 11.6 6 3.8 398 1
……
8621000 199 31863.4 578.2
0 0 4.03 1 40 12 4 3.5 271 0
8622000 199 46220.2 291.0
0 0 21.00 9 45 11.91 5.88 4.1 1031 1
8623000 199 32970.9 378.8
0 0 5.79 1 35 11.75 4.5 3.5 264 8
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 596
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Figure 1 shows the scatter plot of Ln (expected crash rate) versus the 5
predictors. (b) shows a clear linear trend between Ln (expected crash rate) and
maximum speed limit. Although not as good as (b), (e) somewhat shows linear
trends between Ln (expected crash rate) and pavement condition. (a) has no linear
trend at all. Obviously, the full model is not good enough to predict the expected
crash rate.

(a) Scatter Plot of Ln (expected crash rate) and ADT (b) Scatter Plot of Ln (expected crash rate) and
Max Speed Limit

(c) Scatter Plot of Ln (expected crash rate) and Lane Width (d) Scatter Plot of Ln (expected crash rate)
and Lane Number
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 597
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(e) Scatter Plot of Ln (expected crash rate) and Pavement Condition

Figure 1. Scatter plot of Ln(expected crash rate) versus predictors.

In order to find the best model, we have to choose which predictors are
selected into the linear regression model. The stepwise procedure is employed to
create the regression model we need. Here both entry and exit tests will be made at
the level α = 0.15 . Statistics Analysis System (SAS) is used to do the regression
analysis, with the following results in Table 2.

Table 2. Regression Output.

Stepwise Selection: Step 4
Variable LW Entered: R2= 0.5830 and C(p) = 4.0726
Parameter Standard
Variable Type II SS F Value Pr > F
Estimate Error
Intercept 8.5836 0.6104 61.3276 197.75 <0.0001
Smax -0.0597 0.0024 191.1132 616.24 <0.0001
LW -0.0955 0.0571 0.8650 2.79 0.0954
NL -0.0348 0.0163 1.4088 4.54 0.0334
PaveCond 0.1967 0.0456 5.7751 18.62 <0.0001
Summary of Stepwise Selection
Step Variable Entered Number Vars In Partial R2 Model R2 C(p) F Value Pr > F
1 Smax 1 0.5712 0.5712 17.3996 908.35 <0.0001
2 PaveCond 2 0.0081 0.5793 6.1490 13.19 0.0003
3 NL 3 0.0020 0.5813 4.8580 3.29 0.0703
4 LW 4 0.0017 0.583 4.0726 2.79 0.0954

According to the output, the significant variables (predictors) are maximum

speed limit, pavement conditions, number of lanes and lane width. Maximum speed
limit is the major factor contributing to the crash rate, the partial R2 for this predictor
is 0.5712, which is much higher than that of other factors. The regression model is:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 598
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∧
Ln[ E (r )] = 8.5837 − 0.0597 S max − 0.0955 LW − 0.0349 N L + 0.1968 PaveCond
(6)
Thus
∧
E (r ) = exp(8.5837 − 0.0597 S max − 0.0955 LW − 0.0349 N L + 0.1968 PaveCond )
(7)
3.2 Model Tests for Expected Crash Rate E (r )
Significance test
As shown in the ANOVA table of the significance test output (Table 3), the
p-value is less than 0.0001( α = 0.15 ), which indicates the regression model is very
significant. The p-values for each parameter β0, β2, β3, β4, and β5 are less than 0.15,
so they are also very significant. The R-Square is 0.5830, which demonstrates that
the regression is fairly good.

Table 3. Significance test output.

Analysis of Variance
Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F
Model 4 294.4602 73.6150 237.37 <.0001
Error 679 210.5767 0.3101
Corrected Total 683 505.0369
Stepwise Selection: Step 4
Variable LW Entered: R2= 0.5830 and C(p) = 4.0726
Parameter Standard
Variable Type II SS F Value Pr > F
Estimate Error
Intercept 8.5836 0.6104 61.3276 197.75 <0.0001
Smax -0.0597 0.0024 191.1132 616.24 <0.0001
LW -0.0955 0.0571 0.8650 2.79 0.0954
NL -0.0348 0.0163 1.4088 4.54 0.0334
PaveCond 0.1967 0.0456 5.7751 18.62 <0.0001

Normality test
Figure 2 shows the residual plot of the above model. The residuals show no
trend significantly. The results of the normality test in Table 4 also indicate that the
residual distribution does not violate the normal assumption.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 599
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Figure 2. Residual plot.

Table 4. Normality test output.

Test Statistic p Value
Shapiro-Wilk W 0.98463 Pr < W 0.7280
Kolmogorov-Smirnov D 0.05410 Pr > D >0.1500
Cramer-von Mises W-Sq 0.02678 Pr > W-Sq >0.2500
Anderson-Darling A-Sq 0.23352 Pr > A-Sq >0.2500

Durbin-Watson test
To check the independence of the residuals, a Durbin-Watson test is
performed:
H0: ρ = 0 H1: ρ ≠ 0
From SAS output, the value of the Durbin-Watson test is d=1.930, k =4, n
=684. The lower critical value d L = 1.8626 and the upper critical value d U = 1.8861
are captured from “Significance Point” statistic table.
Because min{d , 4 − d } = 1.930 > d U , which means that the test failed to reject H0.
Therefore, the residuals can be regarded as independent.
From the above analysis, we can conclude that this regression model
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 600
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∧
E (r ) = exp(8.5837 − 0.0597 S max − 0.0955 LW − 0.0349 N L + 0.1968 PaveCond ) is a
good model for this problem.
The λ in the equation (3) of estimating the critical crash rate could by taken
place by E (r ) . The critical crash rates of state road segments could be estimated by
this model. It is the same method used in estimating the critical crash rates of
C
intersections. The expected crash rate model is generated by using E (r ) =
MEV
C
instead of E (r ) = , where MEV =million of entering
100 MVM
ADT × (number ⋅ of ⋅ days ⋅ in ⋅ study ⋅ period )
vehicles= .
1,000,000
This method combines the rate quality control method with the expected
crash rate model, which accounts for factors which probably have close relationships
to the crash rate at the treated site and the reference sites. Locations could be
considered as reference sites even if they have different roadway characteristics than
the treated site.

4. CASE STUDY
Data of Roadway 86200000 in Broward County in 2005 are posted below to
determine if this location exhibited severe safety needs in 2005. As sites with
characteristics similar to the subject location are rare, it is difficult to estimate the
average crash rate for reference sites.

Table 5. Data of roadway 86200000 in Broward County between 2002 and 2005.
Average Max Crash
Lane Numbe Paveme Total
Lengt Daily Spee Rate
ROADWA Yea Widt r nt Crash
h Traffic d (crashes/
Y r h of Conditio (crashe
(mi) (vehicles/da (mph 100MV
(ft) Lanes n s)
y) ) M)
200 32.7 392.336
86200000 5 5.429 45919.42 5 12 5 3.8895 357 9

Using the improved method, crash rate λ could be estimated.

λ = E (r ) = exp(8.5837 − 0.0597 S max − 0.0955LW − 0.0349 N L + 0.1968PaveCond ) = 435.71
(crashes/100MVM)
λ 1
Rc = λ + 1.96 + = 459.27 ( crashes/100MVM)
m 2m
The actual crash rate for site 86200000 in 2005 is 392.34, which is not
greater than the critical rate; the location is safe.

5. CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, a brief summary of historically and currently used methods in
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identifying hazardous locations and the associated problems are provided, with the
emphasis on the rate quality control method. One of the weaknesses of the rate
quality control method is the limitation of collected data of similar locations. An
improvement of the rate quality control method is provided to estimate the crash rate
by applying the expected crash rate model. The improvement combines the rate
quality control method with the Safety Performance Function, which accounts for
factors which probably have a close relationship to the crash rate at the treated site
and the reference sites. Locations could be considered as reference sites even if they
have different roadway characteristics than the treated site.

REFERENCES
Cheng, W. and Washington, S. (2008), “New Criteria for Evaluating Methods of
Identifying Hot Spots,” Journal of the Transportation Research Board,
2083, 76–85.
Garber, N. J. and Ehrhart, A. A. (1991), “Final Report: The effect of speed, flow, and
geometric characteristics on crash rates for different types of Virginia
highways,” Virginia Transportation Research Council, Charlottesville, VI.
Garber, N.J. and Hoel, L.A. (2002), Traffic &Highway Engineering. Thomson
Learning, Inc.
Hall, J. W. and Pendleton, O. J. (1990), “Rural Accident Rate Variations with Traffic
Volume,” Transportation Research Record, 1281, 62-70.
Laughland, J. C.; Haefner, L. E.; Hall, J. W.; and Clough, D. R. (1975), “NCHRP
Report 162: Methods for Evaluating Highway Safety Improvements,”
Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
Morin, D. A. (1967), “Application of Statistical Concepts to Accident Data,”
Highway Research Record, 188, 72–79.
Norden, M.; Orlansky, J.; and Jacobs, H. (1956), “Application of Statistical Quality-
Control Techniques to Analysis of Highway-Accident Data,” Highway
Research Board, 17–31.
Sawalha, Z. and Sayed, T. (2006), “Traffic accident modeling: statistical issues,”
Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 33, 1115-1124.
Seyfried, R. K.( 2009), “Introduction to Highway Safety Module 101.7– The
Introduction to the Crash Analysis Web Seminar,”
http://www.ctre.iastate.edu/educweb/ce552/docs/Hwy%20Safety%20101.7
% 20Supplement.pdf.
Shen, J. and Gan, A. (2003), “Development of Crash Reduction Factors Methods,
Problems, and Research Needs,” Transportation Research Record, 1840,
pp. 50-56.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 602
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Stokes, R. W. and Mutabazi, M. I. (1996), “Rate-Quality Control Method of

Identifying Hazardous Road Locations,” Transportation Research Record,
1542, 44–48.
Zegeer, C. V. (1986), Methods for Identifying Hazardous Highway Elements.
Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
Zegeer, C. V. and Deen, R. C. (1977), “Identification of Hazardous Locations on City
Streets,” Traffic Quarterly.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 603
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Calibration and Validation Procedure for Intersection Safety Simulation

Using SSAM and VISSIM

Si’en ZHOU 1, Keping LI 2, Jian SUN 3, and Pingchao HAN 4

1
Key Laboratory of Road & Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of
Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Cao’an Road, No 4800, Shanghai,
China 201804; PH (86) 21-69583656; FAX (86) 21-33626308; email:
josyln.zh@gmail.com
2
Key Laboratory of Road & Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, School of
Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Siping Road, No 1239, Shanghai,
China 200092; PH (86) 21-33626318; FAX (86) 21-33626308; email:
keping_li@vip.163.com
3
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Cao’an Road, No 4800,
Shanghai, China 201804; PH (86) 21-69583650; FAX (86) 21-33626308; email:
sunjian@tongji.edu.cn
4
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Cao’an Road, No 4800,
Shanghai, China 201804; PH (86) 21-69583656; FAX (86) 21-33626308; email:
hanpc85@163.com

ABSTRACT
Traffic safety simulation is a preferable way to evaluate safety through
computing conflict indices between every two vehicles during their running process.
Compared to operational efficiency simulation, lots of parameters need to be
calibrated, and high precision is required and a little change of parameters may result
in great difference. Moreover, commonly used calibrations based on intelligent
algorithms prefer result precision to behavioral parameters, and may not reflect real
traffic conditions for stochastic heuristic algorithm. Thus, a two stage calibration
methodology based on experimental optimization is put forward. To depict its
effectiveness, 6 group data of 3 intersections are surveyed and imposed for
calibration and validation through above method by linking Surrogate Safety
Analysis Model (SSAM) using vehicle trajectories exported from VISSIM. The
result is quite promising that the errors of conflict number, conflict velocity and
delay are 7%~13%, -7%~5%, -11%~-6% respectively with a decreasing of
39%~43%,-6%~-2%,-17%~-10%, which objectively demonstrates feasibility and
validity of the method.

INTRODUCTION
Conventionally, traffic crash data analysis is an effective way to evaluate
traffic safety level. However, if there is not a systematic crash data report mechanism,
it would confront with some fatal flaws for the characteristics of long cycle, small
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sample, regressing to the mean, hard to acquire, etc. On the other hand, traffic safety
issues are commonly difficult to be analyzed through simulation method for the
reason that simulation step updating is not precise enough. But vehicle trajectories
can be acquired through simulation, by which conflict indices are computed. The
study of Haydn (1976) reveals that there exists a strong relation between severe
conflict and traffic crash. Therefore, the active safety simulation method through
conflict analysis may be one powerful technique considering there is not any other
better safety analysis method at traffic design level yet.
Based on above rational thought, the integration platform of VISSIM (PTV,
AG, 2009) and SSAM (FHWA, 2003) is studied for active safety analysis, but the
following challenges may be encountered and should be solved for further studies:
(1) Most of present simulation research is aimed at operational efficiency, and
rarely point to traffic safety. Therefore, the calibration procedure for safety
simulation is scarce. Operational efficiency simulation mainly checks macroscopic
parameters, such as travel time and queue length, which may not be affected by
platoon fluctuation for statistical average effect. However, the fluctuation will result
in great difference of safety outputs like number of conflicts and conflict velocity.
Therefore, there is an urgent need to call for an effective safety simulation method.
(2) The calibration procedure usually used adopts an intelligent optimization,
heuristic algorithm for instance, which prefers results that are precise to settlement of
behavior parameter representing traffic conditions, and may not reflect real traffic
conditions.
In order to settle these challenges, a two stage calibration and validation
procedure based on experimental optimization is proposed, namely combining a
feasibility test and experimental optimization. The method containing the feasibility
test and intelligent optimization has an initial concept of a two stage calibration
(Byungkyu (Brian) Park and Hongtu (Maggie) Qi, 2005), but it was not definitely
and systematically developed.
3 intersections in Shanghai and Hangzhou City were picked out and surveyed
for imposing conflict measuring and identifying techniques (Su ZHANG, 1994),
(FHWA, 2003). They are necessary parameters of SSAM and VISSIM for the
validity test.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 1 reviews prior
research on operational simulation and the notion of safety simulation. Section 2
presents the technique frame of active safety analysis. Section 3 illustrates the key
technique about a two stage calibration and validation procedure based on
experimental optimization. Case study procedure and results are given in Section 4.
Section 5 summarizes research conclusions and provides some insights for future
study.
Literature review
Traffic simulation models are increasingly being used for the evaluation of
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complex real world traffic problems. However, accurately estimating traffic

conditions requires the effective calibration of a simulation model. Proper selection
of input parameters are required to be able to accurately represent the prevailing
traffic conditions of a modeled transportation facility (Jung-Beom Lee, Kaan Ozbay,
2008). A number of studies that address the calibration and validation of microscopic
simulation models have been conducted in the past. But most calibration methods are
for operational efficiency. In the aspect of traffic safety simulation, Cooper and
Ferguson (1976) and Darzentas et al. (1980) in the late 1970s initially investigated
the potential application of microscopic traffic simulation models for safety
assessment. The basic premise was that extent of safety can be expressed through
safety performance function or measure established from speed and spacing profiles.
The idea gradually gained increasing attention in following years, and Archer et al.
(2000a and 2000b) also gave a description of the potential of microscopic simulation
modeling for traffic safety assessment. Microscopic simulation guidelines published
by FHWA (2003, 2004) brought forward operational efficiency calibration procedure
and studied surrogate traffic safety indices. Flavio’ Cunto, Frank F. Saccomanno
(2008) used VISSIM to evaluate safety of signalized intersection based on crash
potential index study of Cunto and Saccomanno (2007), adopting fractional factorial
analysis relating inputs to safety performance and utilizing genetic algorithm
procedure for obtaining the best estimated input values.
However, as for safety simulation, not only would little fluctuation of
calibration parameters result in great difference of safety indices, but also both error
of regression model and stochastic of heuristic algorithm would lead to the situation
that the acquired optimization parameters are not the reflection of real traffic
conditions, just the outcome of optimization algorithm.
For tackling the issues, the microscopic simulation platform integrating of
SSAM and VISSIM were systematically imposed to carry out two stage calibration
analysis. A validity test of the method was processed through 3 cases of Shanghai
and Hangzhou city.
Technique frame
The active safety analysis technique through simulation is stated in Figure 1.
Step 1 Field survey
Take videos of the complete intersection panorama, striving for avoiding of
the occlusion of trees or buildings by picking out the proper survey position.
Step 2 Conflict identification
The high precision video settling software is used to compute the conflicts in
acquired videos.
Step 3 Reliability analysis
According to the reliability theory, error checking, multi-observers and
multi-times observation is imposed to validate the reliability. The survey and
statistical analysis of 3 intersections in 6 months reveal the reliability of conflict
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identification method.
Step 4 Simulation
Two stage calibration and validation procedure to carry out simulation
analysis is adopted, and then vehicles’ trajectories and related indices are acquired.
Step 5 SSAM analysis
After the conflict threshold in SSAM is determined, the conflict indices are
then identified by utilizing the trajectories exported from VISSIM simulation.
Although SSAM itself cannot distinguish conflicts between different types of traffic
modes, authors have proposed a multi-source information fusion method, which
would differentiate conflicts between different traffic modes. The specific
introduction of SSAM can be found in the report of FHWA (2003).

Figure 1. Technique frame of safety simulation.

Step 6 Safety effect analysis

After simulation validation and SSAM analysis, the simulation results can
then be imposed to evaluate safety effect.
The core of this method is how to implement calibration and validation for
safety evaluation. The two stage procedure is based on experimental optimization is
proposed to answer this question, which is stated as follows.
Key technique
The number of VISSIM calibration parameters amounts to 33 (PTV, AG,
2009). Their little fluctuations may not bring any influence for macroscopic
parameters, but may bring a great change for microscopic parameters used for safety
simulation checking. Moreover, calibration procedure using heuristic algorithm
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strengthens optimization output precision, overlooking the adjusting of behavioral

parameters representing traffic conditions, which may probably make the high
precision come from optimization algorithm, and may not reflect real traffic
conditions. Thus the method of determining optimal or near optimal values of
behavior parameters through experimental optimization is proposed.
However, all-round experiment is almost impossible, and reasonable
experiment design is quite necessary. Orthogonal test and uniform test are two
relative good methods having wide application. They both have fine homogenous
dispersion quality, but also have some disadvantages (Hong WEI). Orthogonal test is
limited for level number, or number of tests increases sharply according to levels, for
example, q level test requires at least q2 times experiment. Uniform test can resolve
this issue, but is subject to number of factors. S column test can arrange [S/2] + 1
factors at most, and [S/2] denotes the largest integers not more than S/2. Number of
required columns is even more when deviation and precision are considered.
So the idea of combining both good qualities of orthogonal test on
multi-factors processing and uniform test on multi-levels analyzing comes into being.
It is used in the two stage calibration method based on experimental optimization, as
illustrated in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Two stage calibration procedure based on experimental optimization.

The specific procedure is illustrated as follows:

Step 1 Field data collection and statistic analysis
Firstly, establish survey scheme, carry out pre-survey and assessment, making
certain that volume, signal control, and geometric design information can be acquired,
and then implement survey.
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Secondly, for the collected information of Conflict Number (CN), Conflict

Velocity (CV), and delay, divide them into two groups; one is for feasibility test and
experimental optimization, and the other is for validity test.
Step 2 Feasibility test and rough selection stage
(1) Make orthogonal test scheme.
(2) Firstly build basic VISSIM model; secondly operate simulation according
to the first group of information and acquire delay and trajectory outputs; thirdly
determine delay result interval containing its observed value or not, if it is contained,
utilize SSAM model to identify CV, CN, and time-space distribution characteristic of
single vehicle after threshold setting, if not, return (1) to redesign the scheme.
(3) Check simulation result interval of CN and CV containing their
corresponding observed values or not, if they are contained, go to (4) for statistical
test, if not, determine whether the errors are from test scheme or model building by
time-space distribution characteristic of single vehicle, if the former is true, return (1)
to redesign the scheme, if not, return (2) to rebuild the model.
(4) Carry out interval estimation of population mean under conditions of
unknown variance and 95% confidence level for CN, CV, and delay. If result is
reliable, continue step 3 for experimental optimization, if not, return (3) to redesign
the scheme.
Step 3 Experimental optimization and sensitive parameters refining stage
(5) Firstly, pick out sensitive parameters according to index weight
determined by analytic hierarchy process method. Secondly, make uniform test
scheme. Thirdly, adjust the simulation model passed feasibility test, and then operate
simulation, acquiring delay and trajectory outputs.
(6) Check delay error between simulation results and observed values; if the
error can be accepted, utilize SSAM model to identify CV, CN, and time-space
distribution characteristic of single vehicle after threshold setting, if not, return to (5)
to redesign the scheme.
(7) Check simulation result error of CN and CV, if they can be accepted, go to
(8) for statistical test, if not, determine whether the causes are from test scheme or
model building by time-space distribution characteristic of single vehicle, if the
former is true, return (5) to redesign the scheme, if not, return (5) to rebuild the
model.
(8) Carry out interval estimation of population mean under the conditions of
unknown variance and 95% confidence level for the parameter of CN, CV, and delay.
If result is reliable, select the test schemes with relative low error, take their
parameter values as optimal values, then continue step 4 for validation test, if not,
return to (5) to redesign the scheme.
Step 4 Validation test
Adjust model by imposing the second group of data and optimal parameter
values, and operate simulation again. Then carry out t-distribution hypothesis test of
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population mean under conditions of unknown variance; if pass the checking,

terminate calibration and evaluate safety level according to outputs of VISSIM and
SSAM. If not, return to step 3 to adjust the scheme until the optimal parameter values
being found.
Moreover, the above two stage calibration procedure is also available for
mixed traffic simulation. But SSAM itself can only distinguish conflicts among
motor vehicles. Through a multi-source information fusion, conflicts between motor
vehicles and pedestrians and bicycles can be identified, but these conflicts have
significant difference at conflict mechanism. The paper mainly highlights validity
test of motor vehicle safety simulation. Safety simulation object to mixed-traffic is
still on study.
Case study
Field data collection
Select 6 intersections of Shanghai city and Hangzhou city for pre-survey and
determine 3 of them (See Table 1) as research objects, and among them the
application of north Xilin and new Songjiang intersection is illustrated in detail. The
paper adopts new trajectory process software developed by Tokyo University, and
conflict identification process is illustrated in Figure 3. For vehicle A, use the
software fast forward and back forward, find it decelerating at time T2 and position
D, go back forward the record for nearly L0m (for example 10 m) to position C,
record the location and time T1, compute CV =L0/(T2-T1) and distance L from time
T2 to near collision location D, acquire TTC(time to collision )= L/V, if TTC<=1.5s,
take it as severe conflict, and record CN and CV.

Table 1. Statistic indices of 3 intersections (CN, Conflict number, CV, Conflict

velocity).
Enlr.iuc? \"c[ume
W*it eulrftiice in surv*y liui*
iPCLn
'-] ..:! I l l l l . - l -

etEimi
time
delay CN
cv
east west south north (nt
l-J (timii^
s)
North silin
and ntw IS: 30-1 WO mo 87* 628 240 56 152 M
itiiitjiaDt:
\V«iyi 16:40-17:40 1154 996 620 Jjl 67 184 4.7
rosd and 16: 00-16: 1? J69 414 182 310 96 [68 4.1
jUosonj
] 6 i iO-16: 55 325 4*0 1$J *SJ 106 1*2 1.1
road
\Vril S: 00-8; 1? 216 269 193 212 52 9? ?.2
XUtDKIil
roadaiid 3: 30-8: 4? 190 244 201 ISO 41 S' > -
jianh« iflitJ
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 610
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Figure 3. Conflict identification process.

Feasibility test and rough selection of initial parameters

According to analysis procedure stated in chapter 3, the screening of 13
parameters (See Table 2) greatly influencing drivers’ behavior (Flavio Cunto, 2008)
13
to make L ( 3 ) orthogonal test scheme, determine minimum simulation times using
27

the smallest sample size of sample standard deviation, estimating population mean,
standard deviation, operate 10 times for each test, and arrange 27 tests in all. In the
end, you get delay output and vehicle trajectory to find that the delay error can be
accepted.

Table 2. Calibration parameters and corresponding test levels.

No calibration parameter Level J Level 2 Level .1 default
1 Observed vehicles ( vehicle ) I 2 4 2
•> Average -MiicKdll diMiuKi; I m ) 1 2 5 ->
3 Additive part of safety di stance ( m ) 1 -\ 4 ->
4 Multiplication part of safety distance ( ni ) 1 3 5 3
5 Wailiua tune before diffusion ( i ) 50 60 70 60
6 Miiuiumn headway \ in ) 03 0.5 O.B 05
7 Safely distance reduction factor 0.3 06 0.8 06
3 Maximum deceleration for cooperation brakiiiEfm-'r > -2 -.! -5 -.-
? Reduction factor clo« lo stop line O.J 0.6 O.S 0.6
10 Start upstream of *top line ( m ) TO 100 I2fl 100
11 End doivustream of stop line ( in ) — 100 120 100
12 Own accelerAiioii of necesij.aiy lane change (ui.''s:) .2 -4 -6 -4
Trailing vetiick acceletaiionof uece^ary lane
13 -1 -3 .5 -3
ch,Tiiae(ni-i"h
Then link SSAM with trajectory for CN and CV identification, find that 3
indices (See Figure 4) are all in the population mean confidence interval under 95%
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 611
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confidence level and unknown variance, therefore pass through feasibility test and
continue experiment optimization stage.

Figure 4. Statistical analysis of simulation results.

Experimental optimization and sensitive parameter refining

Single out 6 sensitive parameters by imposing analytic hierarchy process
method, and put uniform level design into practice by referring level design method
of orthogonal test and enlarging parameter range to avoid local optimal values. Then
make uniform test scheme U* (2611), with the deviation of D=0.1828, and 6 sensitive
parameters are arranged at column 1, 2, 4, 6, 7 and 9 according to the requirement of
uniform test table.
Operate simulation again using VISSIM, and acquire delay and trajectory
outputs. Delay error between simulation and observed value is in the interval of
-19%~98%, which reflects that simulation result interval contains observed values.
After conflict identification, that errors of CN and CV are -13%~110%, -14%~23%
is found, which denotes the results are acceptable, as illustrated in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Confidence test of statistical error.

Validation test
Validation test is implemented using the second group of data. Adjust
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uncontrollable parameters, then pick out controllable parameter group whose values
are from test 14, 16, and 24 (See Figure 5), determined by their statistical error.
Again simulation is operated by using the above 3 parameter schemes
respectively, for each scheme operating simulation with 10 different random seeds.
The results are carried out to statistical checking (See Table 3). The results of test 14
and test 16 are acceptable. After calibration, errors of CN, CV and delay decrease
38.6%~40%, -2.5%~1.4% and -19.5%~-17.8% respectively.

Table 3 Statistic analysis (Confidence level: 0.95; Degree of freedom: 9;

t-distribution) (CN: Conflict number; CV: Conflict Velocity).
iteuii averaee value enoi1 Criiical \'aliiei -•Mr :••!:_ value*
T
CN 270 46.6" n 2.26 6.25
without
CV 4.5 -3.4% 2.26 -2.S9
calibration
delay 4".? -29. 1** 2.26 -7.01
0! 196 6.6"a 2.26 0,77
Te4tl4 cv 4." -0.91-a 2.26 -0.5S
delay $9A -1L.31** 2.26 -I.S8
CN 199 S.O^a 2.26 2.0?
Tesl 16 CV 4.6 -^.O'.-n 2.26 -2.06
delay 60 Ji •4.«b 2.26 -1.96
CST ;o? llS^a 2.26 j.sS
Teii 24 CV 13 -5.1H 2.26 -299
ileln> 61.7 -8.0% 2.26 -2.12

Adopt the same method to implement the validation test using data
information of other two intersections. The results are stated in Table 4. Find that
after calibration errors of CV, CN and delay are -7.0%~5.4%, 10.3%~13.0%,
-8.5%~-6.4%, and decrease -5.4%~-3.5%, 41.4%~42.7%, -17.0%~-12.3%
respectively, which reflects the validity of two stage calibration based on experiment
optimization for safety simulation.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 613
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Table 4. Simulation validation of other two intersections.

obseri'fd befare aftw error
\v LTtiai]t AH?r
valuta taJiliraliou L-nJiliF-;i lion decrtavc
cahliraMon calibration
Wenyi CV(m/ii) J.T 3.3 3.5 -LOJ% -5 -i' - -.•-.-F;
1X3SK1 CN
•ad ( riuiev'] ^ I'!I 199 217 ,15.'"!i li.CK* 42.^
fiaoafl ruirniiii 1
HE
ilt lay I v » LO* H « -20.8% -S.^1-* -114**
HOIK!
Wea C%r(ms) J.T 3;] Ti.,-1 -iOJ»i .".(F. -.1.?^*
M i::\; CN
arcnd UulKtU %•! IJ2 96 ?l •?»% 10 P. 4 1.-***
KK* inin'i^-- >
.iiaiUie
delay • - 1 -17 36 44 -:j^% -fi.^. -l".0*i
i* Lid

Safety effect analysis

After calibration and validation, the acquired conflict indices from SSAM
identification can be used for safety analysis. The specific analysis procedure is
published in another paper (Sien ZHOU, 2009), and the primary conclusions are
presented as follows.
(1) The proportion of rear-end conflict is the highest, almost amounting to
60%. This type conflict commonly locates at the lanes between the stop line and the
tail of the waiting vehicles. The adjustment of the car-following parameter would
decrease the conflict number, but the delay would increase. The contradiction exists
between the two aspects, so they should be balanced to represent real conditions at
the design stage.
(2) The proportion of cross conflict is relatively low, but this type conflict
usually has the largest conflict velocity and occurs at the turning lane. It has strong
relation with the inter-green time design. The improper design tends to induce this
type conflict.
(3) The proportion of lane change conflict is in between the above two types.
It primarily takes place at the transition section between the normal lane and the
broadening lane, and with relation to the short lane formed by the queuing vehicles.
The above conclusions give some enlightenment to the signalized intersection
management. Besides the conventional management, the reasonable phase and phase
order design, the proper inter-green time value, the required exclusive turning lane or
phase, the avoidance of possible short lane by signal timing and channelizing design,
and the necessary pedestrian refugee island all together safeguard the conflict
movements smoothly running according to their time and spatial road right.
Conclusions and recommendations
Traffic safety issues are commonly difficult to be analyzed through
simulation method. A possible solution, namely assessing safety level by judging
conflict indices acquired from vehicle trajectories through simulation, is proposed.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 614
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Besides, compared to common calibration methods based on intelligent optimization

for operational efficiency simulation, the main contribution of experimental
optimization is evaluate safety effect directly from settling the parameters, rather
than from the stochastic and randomness of intelligent algorithm.
The paper carries out validity test of a two stage calibration method imposing
6 group collection data of 3 intersections, and finds that under conditions of 95%
confidence level, unknown variance and t-distribution, errors of CN, CV and delay
are 6.6%~13%,-8.5%~-0.9%,-11.3%~-3.5%, decreasing by 38.6%~42.7%,
-5.4%~1.4%, -19.5%~-2.3% respectively compared to the model without calibration.
The results objectively reflect the feasibility and validity of the above method.
The experimental optimization method is theoretically suitable for mixed
traffic, but conflicts between motorcycles and pedestrians and bicycles have
significant difference at conflict mechanism. Therefore the further study is trying to
check the method’s adaptability on mixed traffic, so that the experimental
optimization method can be widely promoted and applied.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank National Science and Technology Supporting
Program during the Eleventh Five-year Plan Period (2006BAJ18B07) for supporting
this research.

REFERENCES
Byungkyu (Brian) Park and Hongtu (Maggie) Qi.(2005) “Development and
Evaluation of a Procedure for the Calibration of Simulation Models.”
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research
Board, No. 1934, Washington, D.C., 208–217.
Cooper, D.F., Ferguson, N. (1976) “A conflict simulation model.” Traffic
Engineering Control,, 306–309.
Cunto, F., Saccomanno, F. (2007) “Microscopic-level traffic simulation method for
assessing crash potential at intersections.” Proceedings of the 86th Annual
Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
Darzentas, J., Cooper, D.F., Storr, P.A., McDowell, M.R.C. (1980) “Simulation of
road traffic conflicts at T-junctions.” Simulation, 34(May), 155–164.
Fl´avio Cunto, Frank F. Saccomanno. (2008) “Calibration and validation of
simulated vehicle safety performance at signalized intersections”, Accident
Analysis and Prevention.5, 1175-1176
FHWA (2004). “Traffic Analysis Tool Box Volume III: Guidelines for Applying
Traffic Microscopic simulation Modeling Software.” Publication No. FHWA
–HRT - 04 - 040.
FHWA (2003). “Surrogate Safety Measures from Traffic Simulation Models.”
Federal Highway Administration Report FHWA-RD-03-050.McLean, VA.
[Sweden] Haydn [author], Zhang su [translation].(1994) “Traffic conflict technique.”
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 615
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Southwest Jiaotong University, Chong qing

Jung-Beom Lee, Kaan Ozbay, (2008) “Calibration of a Macroscopic Traffic
Simulation Model using Bayesian Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic
Approximation Methodology.” Paper presented at the 87th Transportation
Research Board Meeting
Jeffery Archer, Iisakki Kosonen. (2000) “The potential of microscopic-simulation
modeling in relation to traffic safety assessment”, Published in ESS
Conference Proceedings, Hamburg.
Sien ZHOU, Keping LI, Jian SUN (2009) “Traffic conflict simulation analysis for
urban road intersection.” China Safety Science Journal, 19(5). 32-37
VISSIM Version 5.1 Manual [M] (2009) Planug Transport Verkehr AG. Innovative
Transportation Concepts, Inc., 79-102.
Wei Hong, Cheng-zhen Wu. “Experiment design and analysis--theory, operation and
case.” Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House, 148-153
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 616
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Research on Traffic Accident Prediction Model For Mountainous Freeways

Weibin LI1 Xiaoduan SUN2 Yulong HE3

1
Transportation Research Center; Beijing university of technology, Pingleyuan
No.100;100124; 0086-13488778599; Email:lwb_1987@hotmail.com
2
Professor, Transportation Research Center; Beijing university of technology,
Pingleyuan No.100; 100124;Phone:010-67391597;Email:xdsun@bjut.edu.cn
3
Associate Professor, Transportation Research Center; Beijing University of
Technology; Pingleyuan No.100; Phone:010-67391597;Email:ylhe@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
The freeways crossing mountainous areas in China are playing a major role in
economic development. In the past decade, building freeways in these regions have
greatly stimulated economic development in all aspects and will also be a major
factor in the areas’ sustainable development for the future. Due to the geometry of
highways, freeway accidents have become a serious problem in these mountainous
areas. This paper focused on the modeling of freeway safety with the consideration
of geometry, traffic flow, and roadside environment. Particularly, the generalized
regression model was developed based on the data collected from the mountainous
areas.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POSTED SPEED LIMIT AND SAFETY

As a serious problem, traffic accidents greatly threaten the safety of road
users and cause huge amounts of economic losses. According to related statistics,
China had a total of 2.65 billion traffic accidents as of 2008, with a death toll of
73,500. Speeding is one of the main reasons for accidents, and is also a contributor
to major traffic accidents on the freeway. Therefore, it is of the upmost importance
to limit the speed of cars and trucks to prevent accidents, or to at least minimize the
occurrences.
The number of accidents is related to the speed discretion and speed
dispersion from overpasses, which concludes that large speed dispersions result in
more accidents. Not only fast-moving vehicles are prone to accidents, but vehicles
at slower-than-average speed are also susceptible to accidents. Therefore, in order to
reduce the number of accidents, speed differences should be minimized and speed
discretion should also be reduced.
People often use ideal geometric design standards to maximize safety in road
design; however, it is made impossible by constraints of environmental conditions,
road space and the surrounding terrain. Decision-makers and designers need to
consider a combination of factors such as: the performance of road, roadside design
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 617
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elements, and traffic flow security features, in order to achieve design optimization.

MODELING
Division of Road
The rationality of road division is the premise of the model’s accuracy. The
shortcoming of the fixed-length division follows that if the length of highway is too
long; the road is characterized by the convergence of many features. Statistical
laws and their values are not sufficient. On the other hand, due to contingency and
the scarcity of traffic accidents, if the length of the sample is too small, the number of
accident samples within the length is 1 or 0, and the application of such pathological
samples is difficult to draw the right conclusions. In addition, some
accident-concentrated locations (charging stations, service areas, interchange areas,
tunnel entrances, etc.) may have been arbitrarily dispersed to different locations,
which may also result in adjacent sections where the difference of accident frequency
is larger and dispersed in the same location. This makes the location level of
incidents tend to average and thus can not accurately measure the impact of
independent variables. The above two situations will have a greater impact on the
accuracy of the model. To ensure the consistency of units within the flat, vertical, and
horizontal shape of a sample of three freeways, (Yunnan Luofu freeway, Shaanxi
Xihan freeway, Chongqing Yusui highway) each of which having 21 speed sections,
are to be used to build models of the 121 sections of cells. This study used
MetroCount and NC97 to observe speed. These roads with elements of their flat,
vertical, and horizontal shapes are essentially the same; each unit has same
velocity distribution.

For the sections whose gradient varies greatly, the section for speed
observance should be extended to the endpoints of the longitudinal slope of the
section. The operating speed of the unit will be taken as the speed of the whole
section. The vehicle speeds of the unit follow the speed distribution of measured
values. The function of weighted average curve radius and the weighted curvature
are as follows:

åR
i =1
ij × l ij
Rweighted , j = n

åli =1
ij

1
Curvature _ weighted =
Rweighted
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 618
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Rij
Where： represents the radius i on gradient j (m)

lij
represents the length i on gradient j (km)

Rweighted , j
represents the weighted curve radius i on gradient j (m)
For certain sections with a relatively rich curve set, a flat curve is used as
the leading division method. Any curve that has speed observations, and also
contains obstructions in the middle, will be separated. The speed of the middle
of the curve is taken as the speed of whole curve.

Determination of Model Variables

The annual average incidents at certain lengths (L) of sections are taken as
the dependent variable Y. The model, or independent variable, includes exposure
variables (road length, traffic volume), flat vertical linear variables (1/radius,
gradient, slope length), and traffic flow attribute variables (the proportion of trucks,
average car speed, standard deviation of car speed, mean of truck, mean of car,
standard deviation of the truck speed, truck speed limit, car speed limit).
Road length
Road length is the difference between the section of the cell’s front and back
mileage stake, with road length in kilometers.
Traffic volume
Apart from the observation of 23 hours of traffic volume at 5 sections of
Chongqing Yusui freeway, the data of the remaining sections were collected during
5-7 hours of traffic volume. On the comparability of exposure variables of different
sections, traffic volume (vehicles / hour) of standard cars are taken as exposure
variables.
Alignment Variable
Curvature gradient has been explained in the section above, and will not be
repeated. Linear variables have great impact on accidents, especially for classified
freeways. Figure1 shows the relationship between the radii and average annual
accident.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 619
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14

Average annual number of accidents(time)

12

10

-2
-2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

Radius(m)

Figure 1.The relationship between radius and average annual accident.

The data from the graph all represent the modeling data. From the figure,
we can see that the smaller the radius, the greater the frequency of accidents.
Therefore, there is an impact of linear data on the occurrence of the accidents,
especially on classified highways.

4
Crash per year(time/year)

0
0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65
-1
The Proportion of Truck

Figure 2.The relationship between proportion of truck and crash per year.
Figure 2 shows that the relationship between the proportion of trucks on the
freeway, and the accident rate, takes on a quadratic parabola opening down. In the
following model, the square of the proportion of trucks is taken into account in the
formula as an independent variable.
Summary of roadway units is in Table 1:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 620
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Table1. Summary of roadway units.

Truck
Truck
Length Volume Standard Car mean
Index truck% mean
（km） （vec/h） deviation (km/h)
（km/h）
(km/h)
Average 0.67 133.70 0.39 51.60 18.24 76.87
Car average
slope Section
Standard gradient radius annual
Index length of unit
deviation （%） (m) number of
（km） number
(km/h) accidents
Average 19.36 1.97 0.61 1173.75 0.48 121

Selection of Model Form

Most early studies use multiple linear regressions for accident rate or accident
frequency prediction. In the accident prediction model, the dependent variable, Y, is
usually the number of accidents. This represents the number of accidents at a certain
length of road or intersections within certain scope in a certain time interval.
The choice of model form requires several principles. First, when the
section length and traffic volume is 0, the corresponding frequency of accidents
should also be 0. Second, the model should have a form that can be easily
transformed into a linear model in order to work with the existing computing ability.
In addition, both sides of the equation should be in the same range. Because the
number of accidents should be greater than or equal to 0, the right side of the
equation is limited to ensure that its range is also greater than or equal to 0. Based on
the above, the model selected is shown in the equation below:
n
åbj x j
E (Crashes / year ) = a0 ´ exposure ´ e j =1

n
ln[ E (Crashes / year )] = ln a0 + ln(exposure) + å b j x j
j =1

For the variables in this study, the final model of the form is:
ln[ E (Crashes / year )] = ln a0 + ln(exposure) + b1 × tr_limit + b2 × car_limit + b3 × (truck%)^2
+b4 × slopelength + b5 × grad + b6 × car_std + b7 × car_mean + b8 × tr_std + b9 × tr_mean + b10 × radius

Where， ln a0 is constant;
Exposure is traffic volume times length (vehicles/hour×km);
(truck%)^2 is the square of proportion of truck(%);
tr_limit is the posted speed limit of truck(km/h);
car_limit is the posted speed limit of car(km/h);
grad is gradient(%);
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 621
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slopelength is the length of the slope(km);

car_mean is the average speed of car(km/h);
tr_mean is the average speed of truck(km/h);
car_std is the standard deviation of car speed(km/h);
tr_std is the standard deviation of truck speed(km/h);
radius is radius of curve(m).
The natural logarithm should be taken on both sides of the equation to form
the linear model , known as the generalized linear model. In this paper the model
uses STATA 9.0 statistical software for regression analysis.

Regression
Mathematical regression models can be roughly divided into two categories.
The first is a general linear regression model (non-probabilistic model), and the other
is the generalized regression model (probability theory models, such as the Poisson
distribution, negative binomial regression, etc.).
Traffic accidents are random events; the number of accidents per unit time is
subject to a certain degree of probability distribution, according to its distribution to
describe the probability of its occurrence and mean parameters. The accident is
discrete, independent and rare. Commonly found in the accident prediction model
distribution include: the Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution, as
well as the Zero Inflated Probability (referred to as ZIP). The Poisson distribution
can also be joined into a ZIP. The Zero Inflated Negative Binomial is referred to
as ZINB.
In accordance with the principles of consistent linear geometry, the road
sections are divided into 121 units, then modeling. While the Poisson distribution
remains relatively significant, the independent variables in the linear regression and
negative binomial regression are not significant. It can be seen that the eventual
adoption of the dependent variable follows the generalized linear Poisson regression
model.
Table2 shows the results of the regression analysis. The information
provided includes: the regression method, the number of samples, the likelihood ratio,
the log-likelihood values, the corresponding estimate to each variable, the standard
deviation, and test statistics. From the regression results, it can be noted that from
the P value obtained from the test, some variables in the model are not significant.
If the modeling software contains these insignificant variables, they will be removed
as well as the resulting curvature variable.

Table2. Summary of Negative binomial regression with all independents in.

Poisson regression Number of obs = 121
LR chi2(9) = 113.37
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 622
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Log likelihood = -46.910163 Pseudo R2 = 0.5472

crashy Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
tr_limit .1655827 .0582213 2.84 0.004 .0514711 .2796943
car_limit -.2825647 .0717896 -3.94 0.000 -.4232697 -.1418598
truck -32.93953 14.04866 -2.34 0.019 -60.47439 -5.404663
slopelength .3066066 .1790638 1.71 0.087 -.0443519 .6575652
grad .1974843 .1146492 1.72 0.085 -.0272241 .4221927
car_std 1.21713 .3175634 3.83 0.000 .594717 1.839543
car_mean -.7512388 .1700703 -4.42 0.000 -1.084571 -.4179071
tr_std -.236048 .1203898 -1.96 0.050 -.4720077 -.0000884
tr_mean 1.114898 .2436713 4.58 0.000 .6373115 1.592485
_cons 11.70199 4.66562 -2.51 0.012 -20.84644 -2.557543
flowlength (exposure)

The mathematical form is as follows:

ln[ E (Crashes / year )] = ln11.70199 + ln(exposure)+0.1655827 × tr_limit-0.2825647 × car_limit
-32.93953 × (truck%)^2 + 0.3066066 × slopelength + 0.1974843 × grad + 1.21713 × car_std
-0.7512388 × car_mean-0.236048 × tr_std + 1.114898 × tr_mean

The independent variables in this model have been explained in the section
above. The model presented that as traffic volume and road length increase, the
accident rate increased, which is in accordance with realities. From the perspective
of the road alignment, the accident rate increased with the slope length and gradient
increase. The accident rate also increases as the posted speed limit of trucks
increases; the only inconsistency with common sense is that with the posted speed
limit of car increases, the accident rates reduce. The reason that with aggregating
model data, the speed of the middle of the curve represents the speed of the whole
curve; is due to the fact that each modeling section should have its own traffic flow
attribute variables, so that the correctness of modeling data would cause some impact.
The model also shows that the higher the square of proportion of trucks, the less
likely an accident would occur. The relationship between the proportion of trucks
on a freeway and the accident rate is a quadratic parabola opening down, and the
coefficient of the square of proportion of trucks also verifies this. It can be
illustrated that in some ways, having a higher proportion of trucks yields more
accidents, whereas, having a lower proportion of trucks gives, lesser
accidents.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 623
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14.5
14
Average Annual Number of
Accident(time) 13.5
13
Truck on Freeway
12.5 Car on Freeway
Truck on Freeway
12
Car on Freeway
11.5
11
10.5
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Posted Speed Limit(km/h)

Figure 3.The relationship between posted speed limit and average annual
number of accident.
In Figure 3 we can see that the accident rate is along with the posted speed
limit, which is also in consistent with the facts.

CONCLUSION
The study team has been to four provinces and autonomous regions including
the Yunnan, Chongqing, and Shanxi freeways. All of these freeways are mountainous
on a total of 21 sections of the vehicle's speed measurements, as well as accidents,
and linear data collection. Based on the data, this paper has established the model
reflecting the relationship between posted speed limit and annual average accidents,
the model of operating speed, as well as other alignment variables and the accident.
The model has a precise fit; most of the parameter estimation is in agreement
with the actual situation. The accident prediction model accurately quantifies the
relationship between safety and the influencing factors, so as to provide an important
theoretical basis for the prediction and prevention of accidents.

REFERENCES
Liande Zhong.(2008).Research in Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeway.
Managing speed- Review of Current Practice for Setting and Enforcing Speed Limits.
Special Report 254, Transportation Research Board, pp.82.
Oppenlander, J.C. (1962). A Theory on Vehicular Speed Regulation. Bulletin 341,
Highway Research Board, Washington, D.C., pp. 77–91.
Solomon, D. (1964). Accidents on Main Rural Highways Related to Speed, Driver,
and Vehicle. Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C., July.
Yiyi Wang.(2008). Impact Posted Speed on Traffic Safety Analysis.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 624
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Geometric Design Parameters Research of Two-lane Highway in Mountainous

Terrain Based on Drivers’ Anticipation
Jing FANG1, Ronggui ZHOU2, Hua CHAI3, Jiangang QIAO4

1
Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, No.8 XiTuCheng Road,
HaiDian District, Beijing, Postcode 100088; PH (8610) 62079056; FAX (8610)
62075650; email: j.fang@rioh.cn
2
Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, No.8 XiTuCheng Road,
HaiDian District, Beijing, Postcode 100088; PH (8610) 62079585; FAX (8610)
62079585; email: rg.zhou@rioh.cn
3
Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, No.8 XiTuCheng Road,
HaiDian District, Beijing, Postcode 100088; PH (8610) 62361962; FAX (8610)
62361962; email: h.chai@rioh.cn
4
Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, No.8 XiTuCheng Road,
HaiDian District, Beijing, Postcode 100088; PH (8610) 62361962; FAX (8610)
62361962; email: jg.qiao@rioh.cn

ABSTRACT
The continuity of geometric alignment is now able to be illustrated by driver
anticipation and comfort of passengers. But geometric alignment sometimes is
inconsistent with driver anticipation due to topographical constraints in mountainous
terrain. To solve this problem, alignment data and heart rate of driver were
simultaneously collected by GPS and Holter on a two-lane highway in mountainous
terrain. Combined with the drivers’ subjective feeling survey (such as stable, less
stable, unstable and unacceptable conditions) and the sideways force coefficient, a
classification index of psychophysiological response characteristics were identified
and categorized into four levels, and comfort threshold and safety threshold were
prompted. Based on correlation and partial correlation analyses of collected data, the
geometric design parameters (such as curve radius, gradient and tangent length
which is between same direction adjacent curves and reverse curves) and growth
ratio of heart-rate interaction model was established. The findings show that an
increase in heart rate of 30% is used as the critical threshold. The tangent length
between same direction adjacent curves is suggested to be 120m and 300m
respectively when the topography constraints are severe or not. The tangent length
between reverse curves is suggested to be greater than 80m. The conclusion will
provide a technology of geometric alignment design of the two-lane highway in
mountainous terrain.

1. INTRODUCTION
Recently researchers have paid more attention to the compounding factors
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 625
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such as the human, vehicle and highway, and especially to the driving behavior
characteristics and psychophysiological characteristics instead of only considering
the mode based on the vehicle dynamic analysis, when they design the highway
geometric alignment. The sense of safety of drivers is enacted as the design object to
make sure that comfortable, safe and rapid service can be provided. Foreign scholars
have studied the geometric alignment parameters of highways utilizing the
psychophysiological reaction data since the 1960s. Kecklund (1993) studied the
relationship between the sleepiness and psychophysiological reaction in long
distance night driving of truck drivers with an ambulatory EEG. Y. Ian Noy (1997)
compared the psychological reaction of drivers on the unblocked freeway with those
who are driving on a congested expressway through electrocardiogram. Chung (2001)
obtained the influence of the different lengths of tangents and curves on freeways on
the drivers’ fatigue according to driver’s electroencephalogram. Chang (2001)
concluded that the drivers’ have a nervous status when they are driving on a different
location of an entrance ramp. Pan (2002) presents the model between the
combination of curve, sight distance and curve length and the psychophysiological
reaction need. Zhen (2003) studied the critical indexes of the freeway alignment
which adapt to the psychophysiological needs of the drivers through surveying the
different driver’s heart rate on the same freeway.
From the introduction above, we can see that domestic and foreign scholars
have not done study about the drivers’ psychophysiological reactions to geometric
design parameters of two-lane highways in mountainous terrain. So current research
lacks a tool to do study about geometric alignment design of the two-lane highway in
mountainous terrain.
Based on the horizontal and vertical alignment data and heart rate of drivers
under the compound traffic conditions collected by GPS and Holter on-site, a
classification index of psychophysiological response characteristics were identified
into four levels, and comfort threshold and safety threshold were prompted combined
with the drivers’ subjective feeling survey (such as stable, less stable, unstable and
unacceptable conditions) and the sideways force coefficient. Through correlation and
partial correlation analyses of collected data, the geometric design parameters (such
as curve radius, gradient and tangent length between horizontal curves) and growth
ratio of heart-rate interaction model was established to provide a technology for to
geometric alignment design of the two-lane highway in mountainous terrain.

2. FIELD STUDY
2.1 Field Study Site
The field study of highway sections is selected as the following: the length is
30 km. The section must be a two-lane highway in mountainous terrain whose
alignment types are abundant and the beginning of the section should be a tangent
which is about 2 or 3 km long. Traffic is free flowing. According the above principles,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 626
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nine two-lane highways in mountainous terrain were selected. The roadway width
and the shoulder width are 7 meters and 0.5 meters. The design speed is 40km/h and
the surface evenness index of the pavement is good.

2.2 Field Study Method

In order to obtain the relationship among physiological index, speed and
alignment, a GPS device and fifth-wheel tester were fixed on the trial vehicle to
collect the vehicle speed and the highway alignment. A Holter monitor was worn on
the testees to record their electrocardiogram data. The testees kept calm for about 15
minutes to eliminate tension. The average heart rate data collected from the
beginning of the section, which is a tangent about 2 or 3 km long, was defined as the
base heart rate and was compared to the dynamic heart rates collected from the
following sections. Every testee was asked to drive back and forth three times so that
the continuous geometric alignment parameters of the highway and the
corresponding speed and heart rate of each site could be obtained.

3. DRIVING PSYCHOPHYSIOLOGICAL RESPONSE CHARACTER

CRITERION
Due to the existence of highway horizontal and vertical curves, the vehicle is
influenced by the centrifugal effect. The influence on the driver’s feeling will vary
with the magnitude of centrifugal force, so the driving psychophysiological response
characteristics can be defined into four levels.
Level A— the drivers do not feel the existence of curves and the driving is
very comfortable and stable.
Level B— the drivers feel the existence of curves slightly and the driving is
comfortable and stable.
Level C—the drivers feel the existence of curves obviously and their heart
rate and blood pressure are all increased. The driving is uncomfortable and less
stable.
Level D—the drivers feel the existence of curves intensively and are
extremely uncomfortable. The driving is unstable and feels out of control.
In the field study investigating the drivers’ subjective feeling when they
passed each curve, electrocardiogram data are collected to analyze the variety of the
heart rate through which the classification index of psychophysiological response
characteristics can be prompted. The sideways force coefficient can be calculated
according to the field data such as curve radius, superelevation and speed. The
relationship between the sideways force coefficient and increasing ratio of heart rate
can be concluded as shown in Figure.1.
As shown in Figure 1, the growth ratio of heart rate is liner with sideways
force coefficient. When the growth ratio of heart rate is 30% or 40%,respectively,the
responding sideways force coefficients are 0.15and 0.39. So it can be concluded that
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 627
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it is very comfortable when the sideways force coefficient is below 0.15 though the
drivers can feel the existence of curves slightly, but the driving is stable. A sideways
force coefficient higher than 0.39 should be forbidden because the drivers will feel
unstable and uncomfortable and cars may slide away when baking in the curve
segment. Combined with the drivers’ subjective feeling survey,a classification index
of psychophysiological response characteristics are listed in Table 1.

Figure 1. Relationship between sideway force coefficient and growth ratio of

heart rate.

Table 1. Classification index of psychophysiological response

characteristics.
Level growth ratio of heart rate N（%） sideway force coefficient m
A N<20% m <0.10
B 20%<N<30% 0.10< m <0.15
C 30% <N <40% 0.15< m <0.39
D N>40% m >0.39

As shown in Table 1, there is the boundary point at which the drivers feel
comfortable and uncomfortable is between Level B and level C. And at level D the
drivers feel the existence of curves intensively and are extremely uncomfortable,
which should be forbidden during the geometric alignment design. So the boundary
of Level B and level C should be defined as the control point of the drivers’ comfort
and its corresponding growth ratio of heart rate 30% is used as the critical threshold.
The detailed evaluation criterion is listed as follows:
Comfort Threshold：Alignment is continuous and growth ratio of heart rate
is below 30%.
Safety Threshold: Alignment is not coordinated and discontinuous and
growth ratio of heart rate is below 40%.
4. ALIGNMENT DESIGN INDEX BASED ON DRIVING COMFORT
THRESHOLD
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4.1 Relationship between Curve Radius and Growth Ratio of Heart Rate
The relationship between the horizontal curve radius and growth ratio of heart
rate is found based on correlation and partial correlation analyses of collected data as
shown in Figure 2. When the growth ratio of heart rate is 30% or 40% respectively,
the responding horizontal curve radii are 100m and 280m. When the horizontal curve
radius is between 280m and 600m, the tangent slope of the curve is relatively
transitional, and when the horizontal curve radius is greater than 600m, the curve has
declined to be a line and the responding growth ratio of heart rate is 20%. According
to the above analysis, geometric alignment design index of two-lane highways in
mountainous terrain is given correspondingly considering the psychophysiological
response characteristic threshold.

Figure 2. Relationship between horizontal curve index of two-lane highway in

mountainous terrain and growth ratio of heart rate.

Table 2. Curve radius index of two-lane highway in mountain terrain.

radius without Ultimate
Optimum curve Comfortable
superelevation minimum radius
radius（m） curve radius（m）
(m) （m)
growth ratio
＜20% 20%~30% 30%~40% ＞40%
of heart rate
curve radius
600 600~280 280~100 ＜100
value

4.2 Relationship between Gradient and Growth Ratio of Heart Rate

The growth ratio of heart rate model is established with a regressive method
relationship based on the field data such as gradient, grade length and speed as
shown in Equation 2.
N = -0.665 * I + 0.336 * V + 0.011 * L + 9.427 (R=0.882) (1)

I represents gradient which the value is negative and V represents vehicle

speed. L represents grade length.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 629
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It can be seen that these three factors have positive effect on the growth ratio
of heart rate. According to the model and comfort threshold, grade length
recommended value under different gradient is prompted as listed in Table 3.

Table 3. Grade length recommended value based on psychology comfort.

Gradient /% 3 4 5 6 7 8
Specification value/m -- 800 700 700 500 300
Comfort grade length/m 500 450 350 300 250 200
Ultimate grade length /m 700 550 450 400 400 --

4.3 Tangent Length between Same Direction Adjacent Curves

The relationship between growth ratio of heart rate and the tangent length
between same direction adjacent curves is found as shown in Figure3.

Figure 3. Relationship between growth ratio of heart rate and tangent length
between same direction adjacent curves.

It indicates that the longer the tangent length between same direction adjacent
curves, the smaller the growth ratio of heart rate. When the tangent length is below
120m, the growth ratio of heart rate decreases sharply, and when the tangent length is
20m, the growth ratio of heart rate is 49%. When the tangent lengths are larger than
120m and 300m respectively, the corresponding growth ratios of heart rate are 30%
and 20%. Though it may coordinate in visual impressions, it is very difficult for the
tangent length between same direction adjacent curves to be defined as 6 times of the
speed during designing the two-lane highway in mountainous terrain. So the tangent
length between same direction adjacent curves is suggested to be 120m and 300m,
respectively, when the topography constraints are severe or not.

4.4 Tangent Length between Reverse Curves

The relationship between growth ratio of heart rate and the tangent length
between reverse curves is found as shown in Figure 4.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 630
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Figure 4. Relationship between growth ratio of heart rate and tangent length
between reverse curves.

It indicates that the longer the tangent length between reverse curves is, the
smaller the growth ratio of heart rate is. When the tangent length is below 80m, the
growth ratio of heart rate decreases sharply, and when the tangent lengths are greater
than 80m, the growth ratio of heart rate is 30%. According to the above analysis, the
tangent length between reverse curves is suggested to be greater than 80m.

5. CONCLUSIONS
(1) Through the analysis results of the driving subject feeling survey and the
heart rate data, four levels of driving psychophysiological response characteristics
are defined. A growth ratio of heart rate of 30% is defined as the critical threshold.
(2) The relationship between growth ratio of heart rate and the geometric
design parameters (such as curve radius, gradient and tangent length which is
between same direction adjacent curves and reverse curves) are given respectively
based on the field study data. The geometric alignment design index of two-lane
highway in mountainous terrain is achieved considering the psychophysiological
response characteristics threshold.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Financial support provided by the technology project for west traffic
construction of ministry of transport (No. 200331822322) is acknowledged. The
author would like to thank one anonymous referee for his (her) helpful comments
and suggestion, which improved the content and composition substantially.

REFERENCE
Chung, B.; Park, J.; Kim, J.; Chang, M. (2001). Limit Length Evaluation of Tangent
on Freeway according to Driver’s Physiological Response, TRB ID Number:
01-3166.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 631
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Ke, Z. (2003). Research on Freeway Alignment Based on the Drivers’

Psychophysiological Reaction. Doctor dissertation of Beijing University of
Technology [D].
Kecklund, G. and Akerstedt, T. (1993). Sleepiness in Long Distance Truck Driving:
an Ambulatory EEG Study of Night Driving, Ergonomics, Vol. 36
1007-1016.
Noy, I.Y. (1997). Human Factors in Modern Traffic Systems, Ergonomics, Vol. 40
1016-1024.
Research Institute of Highway of Ministry of Transport (2007)．Study on Elements of
Geometry Design for Two-Lane Rural Highways, Beijing.
Research Institute of Highway of Ministry of Transport (2007)．Study on Safety
Standard of Alignment for Two-Lane Rural Highways, Beijing.
Xiaodong, P. (2002). Application of Human Information Technology on the
Evaluation of Road Geometric Design. Postdoctoral report of Tongji
University.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 632
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Threshold of Natural Ritical Wind Velocity for Driving Safety in Pastoral Area

Peng HU 1, Xiaodong PAN 2, Zhen YANG3

1
Doctoral Student, Transportation Engineering School, Tongji University, P.O. Box
444, Shanghai; PH (0086) 021-69583813; email: eimhp@163.com
2
Professor, Transportation Engineering School, Tongji University, P.O. Box 444,
Shanghai; PH (0086) 021-69585721; FAX (0086) 021-69585721; email:
Panxd3@163.com
3
Associate professor, Transportation Engineering School, Tongji University, P.O.
Box 444, Shanghai; PH (0086) 021-69585721; email: yangzhen2276@263.net

ABSTRACT
Crosswinds have an obvious influence on traffic safety in pastoral areas because
of the special geography position. A Finite element model is established to analyze
wind velocity field of embankment. With no sideslip and overturning as targets, the
threshold of natural crosswind velocity is analyzed under the influence of the
multiple factors including crosswind, traffic velocity, friction coefficient, and
alignment by using a static vehicle model. The results will supply guidance for
driving safety management and road design in pastoral areas.

INTRODUCTION
Second or third class criteria are taken for roads in pastoral areas in Inner Mongolia.
The radius of curve is small, but high driving speed is usually seen because of
low-volume traffic. Wind velocity is usually high in pastoral areas. Since
embankment has a great influence on wind velocity field, this velocity is usually
higher on the top of the embankment than other parts. Drift sand, snow, and ice
usually cover road surfaces lowering the road surface friction coefficient. All these
adverse factors will contribute to traffic accidents.
Considering multiple factors including crosswind velocity, driving velocity, friction
coefficient and super elevation, traffic accidents probability is assessed by accident
rates (Snæbjörnsson et al, 2007; Sigbjörnsson et al, 1998). An equivalent wind
velocity model of bridge deck to analyze traffic safety for Hangzhou Bay Bridge and
Sutong Bridge is created (Jiabin et al, 2006).
The embankment wind velocity field is analyzed by the finite element method.
Then crosswind force, centrifugal force, aerodynamic lift force, and friction
coefficient are considered to compute the threshold of crosswind velocity for driving
safety using the vehicle static model.

WIND VELOCITY OF PASTORAL ROADS ANALYSIS.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 633
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Finite element models of pastoral roads

Two dimensional finite element models are established according to actual roads in
pastoral area. Taking the embankment whose height is 2m, width is 10m, slope grade
is 1:1.5 for example, finite element model is shown in figure 1.
Boundary conditions
Boundary conditions are shown in figure 2. The left and top are applied with wind
velocity Vx=10.0m/s; the bottom is applied with Vx=0, Vy=0; the right is applied
with Pressure DOF=0.

Figure 1. Finite element model Figure 2. Boundary conditions.

of embankment.

Wind velocity field analysis

Since pastoral roads are usually sub-standard, the width of the subgrade is 8m, 10m
or 12m. Computing results show that when the width is changed from 8m to 12m, it
has little effect on wind velocity field. Hence the influence of width is ignored. 1m,
2m, 3m, 4m, 5m height subgrade wind velocity fields are analyzed. Taking the 2m
height, 1:1.5 slope grade subgrade for example, wind velocity field is shown in
Figure 3.

10.3 10.1
10.0

10.7 10.1 10.7

10.2 9.4
9.4
11.1 10.3 10.9
10.7 8.2
4.6 10.4 9.8
13.2
8.9 11.8
0.4
0.9 8.6 9.3

Figure 3. Subgrade Wind Velocity Field.

Figure 3 clearly reveals that wind velocity field varies greatly. For most trucks,
height is less than 4m and ground clearance is more than 0.5m (Ministry of
Communications of the People's Republic of China, 2004), so average wind velocity
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 634
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is calculated from 0.5m to 4.0m on the left lane and it is used as the basis to analyze
crosswind forces. The growth rate of wind velocity is shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Average Growth Rate of Wind Velocity.
Subgrade height Average wind velocity Growth rate
(m) (m/s) (%)
1 10.5 5
2 11.7 17
3 12.5 25
4 13.5 35
5 14.4 44

From Table 1 it is found that the wind velocity on the left lane increases obviously,
and the higher the embankment the larger the wind velocity.

Threshold of crosswind velocity for driving safety

Influence factors and parameters
1
（1）Crosswind side force: Fsw = C s ρAu r
2
（1）
2
（2）Aerodynamic lift force： FZw = 0.5C L Aρμ r
2
（2）

Where: A is vehicle reference area (frontal area); C s is side force coefficients;

C L is lift force coefficient; ρ is density of air; μ r is true wind velocity; u is

vehicle velocity; v is crosswind velocity.

Aerodynamic force is the key to analyze traffic safety in windy environment. Related
research manifests that side force coefficient C s and lift force coefficient C L are in

proportion with wind direction angle, that is Cs = K cs × β ， C L = K c l × β , K cs and

K cL are coefficient which are related with vehicle shape.

mu 2
（3）Centrifugal force: Fa = ， R is radius of curve.
R
（4）Friction Coefficient: After rain, snow, or other attachments fall on road surface,
friction coefficient decreases greatly having a bad effect on driving safety. When
drifting sand covers the road surface friction coefficient is about 0.3, snow causes a
friction coefficient of about 0.15, and ice causes a coefficient of 0.07(Qunli et al,
2008).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 635
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Driving safety analysis under the influence of multiple factors aiming at no

Sideslip
When no side slip happens to vehicles, side force must be less than maximum
friction force as shown in Figure 4:
Fa + Fsw − G sin i ≤ Cϕ (G cos i − Fzw ) （3）

Where: i is super elevation.

When the vehicle is in the critical state of side slip, equation is established, Fa ，

Fsw and Fzw are substituted into the equation, it becomes:

mu 2
Cϕ G cos i + G sin i −
v R
(v 2 + u 2 )arctg ( ) = （4）
u 0.5 ρ ( K cs As + K c L Az )

Driving safety analysis under the influence of multiple factors aiming at no

overturning
When no vehicle overturning occurs, the overturning moment must be less than the
stabilizing moment as shown in Figure 4:
( Fa + Fsw − G sin i ) × H ≤ (G cos i − Fzw ) × L （5）

When the vehicle is in the critical state of overturning, equation is established, Fa ，

Fsw and Fzw are substituted into the equation, it becomes:

mu 2
L × G cos i + H × (G sin i − )
v R
(v + u )arctg ( ) =
2 2
（6）
u 0.5ρ ( H × K cs As + L × K c L Az )

Equation (4) and equation (6) are nonlinear, Newton iteration method is employed to
solve threshold of crosswind velocity. The results are named computed critical
crosswind velocity, and then they are converted into natural wind velocity which is
named side slip natural critical wind velocity (SSNCWV) and overturning natural
critical wind velocity (ONCWV).

Examples and analysis

Related research (Airong et al, 2006) shows that bus and goods vehicles are
affected by crosswind easily. This is especially true when these large vehicles are
empty. A goods vehicle is the research object in this article, k cs = 0.18 ,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 636
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K cl = 0.04 (Baker et al, 1996; Krönke et al, 1994). Its size is 8.1×2.24×3.2m, gross

weight is 5500kg. Aerodynamic center and gravity center lie in the same position
(Zhengqi et al, 2005).
Natural critical wind velocity is computed according to the practical situation of
pastoral roads and a 2m height embankment is taken as example.

SSNCWV Analysis
SSNCWV is computed and correlation with super elevation is shown in
figure 5 (radius is 400m, friction coefficient is 0.5); Correlation with radius is shown
in figure 6 (friction coefficient is 0.5 and super elevation is 6%）; Correlation with
friction coefficient is shown in figure 7 (R=600m, super elevation is 6%).
F
Fa F SNCWS（m/s) 12
10
G*sin(i)
8
60km/h
6
H

80km/h
4
Ff i 100km/h
L 2 120km/h
4 5 6 7 8
G G*cos(i) Super Elevation(%)

Figure 4. Force Diagram of Vehicle. Figure 5. Correlation between Super

Elevation and SSNCWV.

14
12
SNCWS（m/s)

10
8
60km/h
6 80km/h
4 100km/h
2 120km/h
0
200 400 600 800 1000
Radius of Curve(m)

Figure6. Correlation between Radius and SSNCWV.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 637
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60km/h
16 80km/h

SNCWS（m/s)
14 100km/h
12 120km/h
10
8
6
4
2
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Friction Coefficient
Figure 7. Correlation between Friction
Coefficient and SSNCWV.
From Figure 5 it is proved that super elevation has little influence on SSNCWV；
From Figure 6 it is proved that when radius is more than 400m, influence on
SSNCWV decreases. On the other hand when radius is less than 400m, it has
obvious influence on it, and the higher the driving speed is, the greater the influence
is, so the curve radius of pastoral roads should be no less than 400m for driving
safety. From Figure 7 it is found that friction coefficient has obvious influence on
SSNCWV, and that they are almost in proportion.

ONCWV Analysis
ONCWV is computed and Correlation with super elevation is shown in Figure 8
(R=400m); Correlation with radius is shown in Figure 9 (super elevation is 6%).
From Figure 8 it is clear that super elevation has little influence on ONCWV.
Figure 9 reveals that when radius is more than 400m, influence on it decreases, while
radius is less than 400m it has obvious influence on it, and the higher the driving
speed is, the greater the influence is, so the radius of pastoral roads shall be no less
than 400m as mentioned above.

16 16
14
ONCWS（m/s)
ONCWS（m/s)

14 12
12 10
60km/h 60km/h
10 8 80km/h
80km/h
6 100km/h
8 100km/h
4 120km/h
120km/h
6 2
4 5 6 7 8 200 400 600 800 1000
Super Elevation (%) Radius of Curves(m)

Figure 8. Correlation between Figure 9. Correlation between

super elevation and ONCWV. Radius and ONCWV.

Correlation between SSNCWV and ONCWV

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 638
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Figure5 to Figure 9 both show that driving speed has an obvious influence on
natural critical wind velocity of overturning and side slip, but the correlation between
SSNCWV and ONCWV is still unknown, so it is analyzed with different friction
coefficient, traffic speeds, and curve radius. Taking R=400m for example, it is shown
in Figure 10(negative value means side slip has already occurred). It is found that
when fiction coefficient is less than 0.7, critical wind velocity of overturning is
always larger than side slip. With the increase of friction coefficient, the difference
between them diminishes, and while friction coefficient is 0.7, they are almost same.
SNCWS and ONCWS（m/s)

15
12
9
6
3
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Friction Coefficient
60km/-side slip 80km/h-side slip 100km/h-side slip
120km/h-side slip 60km/h-overturning 80km/h-overturning
100km/h-overturning 120km/h-overturning

Figure 10. Correlation between SSNCWV and ONCWV.

CONCLUSIONS
Side force, centrifugal force, aerodynamic lift force, traffic speed, friction
coefficient, super elevation, and radius of curves are considered together and no side
slip and no overturning are targets, natural critical wind velocity is computed based
on embankment wind velocity field analysis. Taking a goods vehicle driving on 2m
height embankment as an example results are computed as follows:
(1) Friction coefficient has obvious influence on SSNCWV, and the larger the
friction coefficient is, the higher SSNCWV is, they are almost in proportion.
(2) Traffic speed has an obvious influence on critical wind velocity, and the higher
the speed is, the lower the critical wind velocity is.
(3) When radius of curves is less than 400m, it has an obvious influence on critical
wind velocity. However when it is more than 400m, the influence is not obvious, so
the radius of pastoral road curve shall be more than 400m.
(4) Super elevation has little effect on critical wind velocity, so it may not be required
strictly for pastoral area roads.
(5) When fiction coefficient is less than 0.7, ONCWV is always larger than
SSNCWV. With the increase of friction coefficient, the difference between them
diminishes, and while friction coefficient is 0.7, they are almost same.

REFERENCES
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Airong, C., Dalei, W., and Jiabin, P. (2006). “Study of Wind-Related Riding Safety
on Long Sea-Crossing Bridge.” Bridge Construction, 3, 1-4.
Baker, C. J., and Humphreys, N. D. (1996). “Assessment of the adequacy of various
wind tunnel techniques to obtain aerodynamic data for ground vehicles in
crosswinds.” Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,
60,49-68.
Jiabin, P., Dalei, W., and Airong, C. (2006). “Probability Evaluating Method of
Bridge Deck Side Wind Effects on Driving Safety.” China Journal of
Highway
and Transport, 19(4), 59-64.
Krönke, I., and Sockel, H. (1994). “Model tests about crosswind effects on
containers and wagons in atmospheric boundary layers.” Journal of Wind
Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 52,109-119.
Ministry of Communications of the People's Republic of China. (2004). JTGB01-
Technical Standard of Highway Engineering, China Communication Press,
Peking, 3.1-3.3.
Qunli, Y., Xujun, C., and Shaobing, J. (2008). “Analysis of safety wind velocity of
driving on sea-cross bridge based on target of no side slip.” Journal of PLA
University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition), 4,373-377.
Sigbjörnsson, R., and Snæbjörnsson, J. T. (1998). “Probabilistic assessment of wind
related accidents of road vehicles: A reliability approach.” Journal of Wind
Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 74,1079-1090.
Snæbjörnsson, J. T., Baker, C. J., and Sigbjörnsson R. (2007). “Probabilistic
assessment of road vehicle safety in windy environments.” Journal of Wind
Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 95:1445-1462.
Zhengqi,G.., Heyi,W., and Rongfeng, L. (2005). “Study on Automobile Cross-Wind
Stability in Consideration of Pressure Center’s Shift.” Journal of Hunan
University(Natural Sciences), 32(3), 70-73.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 640
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A Forward Collision Warning Algorithm Based on Driver Characteristics

Ruijuan CHI1,2, Jianqiang WANG1*, Furui YANG2, Lei ZHANG1

1
State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University,
Beijing 100084, China; PH (086) 010- 62795774; email: wjqlws@tsinghua.edu.cn
2
College of Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China; PH
(086) 010- 62736730; email: chiruijuan@vip.sina.com

* Corresponding author

ABSTRACT
As a part of Driver Assistance Systems (DAS), the Forward Collision Warning
System (FCWS) can effectively avoid forward collision accidents and improve traffic
safety. Based on the Drivers’ Behavior Questionnaire (DBQ), five clusters were
defined by the cluster analysis in this paper. Meanwhile, on the basis of the driver
behavior experiments on the passenger vehicle, and TTC strategy, a forward collision
warning algorithm in accordance with the driver characteristics is presented. In this
research, it is the key of the strategy to determine the warning-start logic and
statistically estimate the warning threshold. Finally, the experiment results
demonstrate that the algorithm is able to embody various types of driver
characteristics and enhance the acceptance of FCWS.

1. INTRODUCTION
With the rapid development of road traffic and the automobile industry, the
quantities of vehicles and the number of drivers are growing rapdily. Meanwhile,
traffic accidents are becoming more serious. In order to avoid accidents or reduce the
loss resulting from the accidents, researchers pay more and more attention to DAS,
which is mainly based on the techniques of traffic environment sense, risk judgment,
vehicle control and collision warning / avoidance, and have also obtained some
achievements, such as FCWS. As a part of DAS, FCWS can effectively help to avoid
forward collision accidents and improve the traffic safety (Sugimoto M, et al., 2000;
Marchau V, et al., 2005; Kyongsu Yi, et al., 2001).
As the key technique of FCWS, the main function of the forward warning
algorithm is to determine the warning-start logic and the warning threshold (Zhang
Lei, 2006, Kangwon Lee, 2004). At present, there are mainly two kinds of forward
warning algorithm, i.e. safe time logic algorithm and safe distance logic algorithm
(Song Xiaolin et al., 2008). The representative model of safe time logic algorithm is
the TTC model established by Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology (H.
Yoshida et al., 2005, 2008). The safe distance logic algorithm has many kinds of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 641
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models, such as the model of fixed DHW, the model of fixed THW (Doi A,1994),
and kinematics model (Ronald Miller, 2002; Yosuke Kobayashi, 2006).
However, most warning algorithms used are fixed (Keiichi, 2006;
Pongsathorn, 2006-2008), and cannot adapt to different drivers and changes of the
same individual driver on different conditions. Besides, the characteristics of Chinese
drivers and the traffic conditions of China are different from those of other countries.
Hence, the present algorithms cannot be used directly in China.
To solve this problem, this paper is committed to the research of FCWS based
on driver characteristics.
On the basis of driver behavior experiments on the passenger vehicle, as well
as with the driver behavior questionnaire, a forward collision warning algorithm in
accordance with the driver characteristics is presented in this paper.

2. DRIVER BEHAVIOR EXPERIMENTS

In order to obtain the driving characteristics of individual drivers, driver
behavior experiments based on the passenger vehicle were carried out and the
experimental data of 33 drivers were obtained.
Equipments for experiment. Equipment for the experiment included: a
passenger vehicle, and corresponding test equipments, such as: Radar, GPS, Video
Camera, Acceleration Sensor, Steering Angle Sensor, etc. (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Passenger vehicle and equipment for experiment.

Experiment design. The passenger vehicle experiment was carried out both
on freeways and city roads. The contents of the experiment included typical
conditions and free-driving conditions respectively (see Tables 1 and 2).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 642
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Table 1. Passenger vehicle experiment on freeway.

Experimental Experiment Experimental Content
Condition
Typical Following at Lead vehicle: drive at 60km/h、70km/h、80km/h
conditions cruise separately.
condition Host vehicle: drive followed.
Repeat three times.
Total time: about 30 min.
Following at Lead vehicle: accelerate from 60km/h to 80km/h
accelerating (about 0.5m/s2), then decelerate from 80km/h to
and 60km/h (about 0.5m/s2) .
decelerating Host vehicle: drive followed.
condition Repeat five times.
Free-driving Following at Lead vehicle: drive freely. Try to reduce
conditions free-driving lane-change.
condition Host vehicle: drive followed according to his
driving habit.
Total time: above 40 min.

Table 2. Passenger vehicle experiment on city road.

Experimental Experiment Experimental Content
Condition
Typical Following at Lead vehicle: drive at 20km/h、30km/h、40km/h、
conditions cruise 50km/h separately.
condition Host vehicle: drive followed, keep in the same
lane.
Total time: about 60 min.
Following at Lead vehicle: accelerate from 20km/h to 40km/h,
accelerating then decelerate to 20km/h. Accelerate from
and 30km/h to 50km/h, then decelerate to 30km/h.
decelerating Accelerate from 40km/h to 60km/h, then
condition decelerate to 40km/h .
Host vehicle: drive followed.
Repeat five times.
Free-driving Following at Lead vehicle: drive freely. Try to reduce
conditions free-driving lane-change.
condition Host vehicle: drive followed according to his
driving habit.
Total time: above 40 min.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 643
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Thirty-three nonprofessional drivers have taken part in the passenger vehicle

experiment on freeways and city roads. Each driver drove for about 2 hours.

3. RESULTS OF DRIVER BEHAVIOR EXPERIMENTS

After the experiment, the relationship among critical parameters, such as DHW,
host vehicle speed, THW and TTC were statistically analyzed.

(a) Freeway（Driver 1） (b) Freeway（Total drivers）

Figure 2. Distribution of speed - TTC at the point of accelerator pedal release.

(a) Freeway（Driver 1） (b) Freeway（Total drivers）

Figure 3. Distribution of speed - TTC at the point of brake pedal activation.

During the process of approaching the lead vehicle, two actions of the driver
can embody the driver’s judgment for safety. One is the accelerator pedal release,
and the other is the brake pedal activation. So it is important for FCWS to do
research on when drivers begin to release the accelerator pedal and when they begin
to activate the brake pedal. On approaching condition, from the distribution of speed
- TTC when drivers begin to release the accelerator pedal (Figure 2a, 2b) and to
activate the brake pedal (Figure 3a, 3b), it can be seen that TTC is centralized in
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 644
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some area, although drivers are fluctuant and changed with time on these two
actions.
The results of the passenger vehicle experiment indicate that vehicle speed,
DHW and THW at the point of braking all reduce slightly compared to at the point of
accelerating (see Tables 3 and 4). On the other hand, TTCi (time-to-collision inverse)
increases, which indicates that the latent risk of forward collision at the point of
braking increases. Fluctuant ranges of DHW both are large, which means that DHW
are not the only parameters for drivers to judge the dangerous condition. THW and
TTCi can relatively embody drivers’ judgment mechanism. Drivers will take actions
to avoid collisions when THW and TTCi departure the expect target and tend to
dangerous conditions. Therefore, THW and TTCi (or TTC) can be used in designing
the warning algorithm as the typical parameters to identify driver characteristics.

Table 3. Statistical results of driver 1 at the point of accelerating.

Mean Standard Deviation Max Min
Vehicle speed (m/s) 17.03 4.19 23.19 9.01
DHW (m) 25.07 11.96 63.71 7.73
Relative speed (m/s) 1.69 0.73 3.51 0.44
THW (s) 1.44 0.44 2.76 0.84
-1
TTCi (s ) 0.07 0.02 0.11 0.05

Table 4. Statistical results of driver 1 at the point of braking.

Mean Standard Deviation Max Min
Vehicle speed (m/s) 11.89 3.10 16.19 7.81
DHW (m) 13.85 4.42 19.76 8.58
Relative speed (m/s) 1.46 0.71 2.58 0.75
THW (s) 1.20 0.38 1.89 0.77
-1
TTCi (s ) 0.11 0.05 0.18 0.06

4. DRIVER BEHAVIOR QUESTIONNAIRE AND DRIVER

CLASSIFICATION
Driver behavior questionnaire (DBQ). As the driver is a complex agent, the
driving characteristics are influenced by the driver’s skills, experience, vehicle state,
traffic conditions and even the driver's physical and psychological state, and some
other factors (Reason J., 1995; Herbert Yoo, et al., 1999; M. Canale, et al., 2002;
Mark Brackstone, 2003). Not only are there differences among individual drivers, but
even for the same driver, characteristics changes greatly under different conditions.
The characteristic parameters identified simply from the vehicle state are not
necessarily an accurate representation of the driver characteristics.
In order to design the forward collision warning algorithm, which can reflect
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the driver characteristics accurately, the real world experimental data were analyzed
objectively to obtain the driver’s behavioral characteristics. Meanwhile, it is
necessary to analyze and quantify the driver’s natural driving habits. Corresponding
with the objective analysis, it is also a common research method to carry out the
analysis of the data that was collected from the driver's subjective feeling
characteristics. In this paper, the method of subjective questionnaire is taken, which
is widely used in the field of driving behavior. With 51 drivers as study objects
(including 33 drivers participating in the real world experiment, 6 females as part of
the sample), based on DBQ put forward by Reason, et al., a self-administered driver's
subjective questionnaire is designed to measure the driving behavior (J. T. Reason, et
al., 1990). The questionnaire (as shown in Zhang Lei (2009)) includes 59 items and
each item describes one driving behavior. The driver is asked to give the occurrence
frequency of each act. In this section, the unified options based on Li Ke-specific
sequence are designed, that is, we use six incremental numbers from 0 to 5 to
indicate the frequency of one behavior, where, "0" means "never", "1" means "very
less", "2" means "sometimes", "3" means " often", "4" means "frequently", "5"
means "almost always". Quantitative description is achieved through this.
Driver classification based on DBQ. Taking the clustering rules that existing
in population prevalence into account, the same type or pattern of drivers will have a
certain consistency in trends of characteristics. Thus, by analyzing the driver’s
abnormal behavior patterns from the point of clustering, and matching different
algorithm parameters in algorithm design, the results will be more representative and
applicable, and can eliminate the influence of individual errors. Based on this idea,
use pattern recognition method based on cluster analysis to conduct cluster studies of
the abnormal behavior of the pilot samples, and establish the distribution of space of
the pilot model. The result is shown in Figure 4. F1 represents the driver
characteristic called error-prone, and F2 the driver characteristics called
illegal-prone.

Figure 4. Analysis results of fuzzy clustering based on the driver internal

characteristics pattern.
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The five clusters above respectively represent five kinds of abnormal

behavior trends of the driver. The 33 drivers involved in the real world experiments
were also divided into five clusters. The various types of cluster centroids, the
number of samples, as well as a description of trends in driver’s abnormal behavior
are shown in Table 5.

Table 5. The cluster centroid, sample size and characteristic description of the
driver pattern.
Cluster Cluster Centroid Sample Size Characteristic Description
A [0.13, -0.37] 6 neutral error-prone, neutral illegal-prone
B [-0.73, 0.62] 12 small error-prone, big illegal-prone
C [-1.20, -0.99] 5 small error-prone, small illegal-prone
D [0.98, 1.29] 5 big error-prone, big illegal-prone
E [1.30, -0.91] 5 big error-prone, small illegal-prone

5. FORWARD COLLISION WARNING ALGORITHM BASED ON DRIVER

CHARACTERISTICS
Based on the analysis of real world experimental data and the questionnaire
results, forward collision warning algorithms based on driver characteristics are
proposed. In this section, a TTC-based warning algorithm is presented. Confirming
the warning-start logic and algorithm parameter is the key point.
Warning-start logic. In order to accord with the reaction characteristics of
drivers, the warning algorithm of FCWS needs to simulate the judgment progress of
the driver to the risk of forward collision. According to analysis of the experiment
results, the TTC distribution of different drivers is different, which can be used to
determine whether to decelerate in order to avoid a collision. The warning-start logic
in this paper is based on TTC. For a driver, there are three states for FCWS:
(1) State of non-start
IF TTC> W1 || Brake==1, THEN S=0 （1）
Brake----Brake signal from the host vehicle.
W1----Start threshold for warning class 1.
S----State class
When TTC is bigger than W1 or the driver is braking, FCWS will not start.
That is to say, the state class (i.e. S) is 0.
(2) State of warning class 1
IF W1>TTC> W2 && Brake==0, THEN S=1 （2）
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W2----Start threshold for warning class 2.

With the increasing of the latent criticality of forward collision, when TTC is
between W1 and W2. Meanwhile, if the driver does not brake, FCWS will start
warning class 1. The yellow sign “Danger” displays on the dashboard and a normal
alarm is given. The state class (i.e. S) is 1.
(3) State of warning class 2
IF TTC<= W2 && Brake==0, THEN S=2 （3）
When TTC is smaller than W2 and the driver is not braking, FCWS will start
warning class 2. The red sign “Danger” displays on the dashboard and an urgent
alarm is given. The state class (i.e. S) is 2. Until the moment that the driver begins to
brake, FCWS returns to non-start state.
IF Brake==1, THEN S=0 （4）
Parameter matching of the algorithm for different types of drivers. In
order to combine the DBQ embodying the driver subjective factor and the real world
experimental data embodying the driver objective factor, we analyze the TTC
distribution of each cluster based on the driver classification results and the
experiment data respectively. Taking clusters A and B as an example, Figures 5 and 6
are the TTC cumulative frequency distribution statistical results of the driver for
cluster A and B when releasing the accelerator pedal and beginning to brake. As can
be seen, there are differences in the TTC value distribution of each cluster, and the
difference in general results from the abnormal behavior patterns of each cluster.
FCW / FCA system is designed for emergency situations; the smaller TTC
shows the more urgent in degree of risk of the drivers at their movement. Therefore,
in order to observe the differences among the clusters more clearly, we can choose
the value of TTC in 5% frequency and the corresponding high-risk range in each
figure as the characteristic parameters of each cluster, which can represent the action
features of the driver in emergency situations.

(a) accelerator release (b) brake activation

Figure 5. TTC frequency statistical results of cluster A.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 648
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(a) accelerator release (b) brake activation

Figure 6. TTC frequency statistical results of cluster B.

Table 6 shows the values of TTC in 5% frequency at the two actions’ moment
of each cluster. It can be found that the values of clusters B, D, E are significantly
higher than clusters A and C. The error-prone and illegal-prone drivers in cluster D
are higher than normal, and the TTC values of the two pairs’ clustering are also the
highest. The two tendencies of cluster C are low, and so as the two values of TTC,
while the cluster B and E has a high tendency, and the TTC is relatively proximity.
The differences of TTC values among the clusters indicate that, in the premise of
safe car following, the driver characteristics to judge the risk are closely related with
their inherent characteristics of abnormal behavior patterns; higher tendency of
abnormal behavior will cause the driver’s higher needs of the security in the
experiment, so a greater moment of collision avoidance maneuvers of TTC should be
chosen to overcome their tendency towards errors or irregularities.

Table 6. The values of TTC in 5% frequency of each cluster when acting.

Cluster Accelerator Release Brake Activation
A 6.6 5.1
B 7.8 6.4
C 5.6 4.2
D 9.6 7.1
E 7.3 5.6

Correspond the values in Table 7 with FCW / FCA system’s warning and
brake functions respectively, and take the values as the first alarm threshold TTCA
and the second alarm / brake threshold TTCB of the cluster in forward collision
warning / avoidance algorithm, as shown in Figure 7. As long as the driver's pattern
category can be measured and match it to the appropriate system logic threshold, we
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 649
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can make the system of forward collision warning / avoidance action in accordance
with the driver’s characteristics of abnormal behavior, so as to meet the security
needs.

Figure 7. The FCW/FCA threshold of each cluster.

6. VERIFYING EXPERIMENT
A real world experiment was carried out to verify the function and the
reliability of the forward collision warning algorithm. Missing rate and false rate
were analyzed so that the warning function is proved.
The algorithm above was used in the FCWS of the experimental vehicle. The
experiment was carried out on city roads, and under real traffic conditions. During
the progress of the experiment, FCWS with the algorithm can successively give
alarms for drivers based on driver characteristics when the driving state of the
vehicle reaches the threshold.
Figure 8 shows the experiment results. From the figure, it can be seen that. in
the progress of quickly approaching to the lead vehicle, FCWS activated in turns
with the increasing of TTCi according to the logic of the algorithm，so that realized
the assistance of collision avoidance initiatively.
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Figure 8. Experiment results in real world conditions.

7. CONCLUSION
Based on the experiment data in real world conditions, driver characteristics
were analyzed. Meanwhile, a forward collision warning algorithm is presented in this
paper. A real world experiment was carried out to verify the function, validity and
reliability of the forward collision warning algorithm. The main conclusions are as
follows:
(1) By analyzing the experiment data of the passenger vehicle in real road
and traffic conditions, it is found that THW and TTC (or TTCi) can be used as
characteristic parameters for drivers to judge the dangerous state of forward
collision.
(2) Five clusters were defined based on Drivers’ Behavior Questionnaire and
the cluster analysis. Meanwhile, by utilizing the results of driver classification, the
TTC distribution of each cluster was obtained respectively. Furthermore, the forward
collision warning threshold based on TTC strategy was determined.
(3) We put forward a forward collision warning algorithm based on driver
characteristics for FCWS. FCWS start logic and threshold parameters for five types
of drivers have been determined.
(4) The experiment results demonstrate that the forward collision warning
algorithm is able to embody various types of drivers’ characteristics and can realize
forward collision warnings effectively.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was funded by the Program of Beijing S&T New Star
（2007-060）and the Chinese National Programs for High Technology Research and
Development (No. 2007AA11Z232), which is also supported by the joint research
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 651
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project of Tsinghua University and NISSAN Motor, Co., Ltd.. The authors especially
thank Xiaojia Lu (China Agricultural University), Qing Xiao (China Agricultural
University) for their kind support for the paper preparation.

REFERENCES
Brackstone, M. (2003). Driver psychological types and car following: Is there a
correlation? Result of a pilot study. Proceeding of the 2nd International
Driving Symposium on Human Factors in Driver Assessment, Training and
Vehicle Design. Park City: UT, 2003.
Canale, M. and Malan, S. (2002). Analysis and classification of human driving
behaviour in an urban environment. Cognition, Technology & Work, 2002,
4(3): 197–206.
Doi, A. ;et al. (1994). Development of a Rear-End Collision Avoidance System with
Automatic Braking Control. JSAE Review. 1994,10. 15(4): 335-340.
Donghoon, H.; Kyongsu, Y.; Seungjong, Y. (2006). Evaluation of Integrated ACC
(Adaptive Cruise Control)/CA (Collision Avoidance) on a Virtual Test Track.
SICE-ICASE International Joint Conference 2006.
Herbert, Y. and Green, P. (1999). Driver behavior while following cars, trucks and
buses. Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI), 1999: UMTRI 99-14.
Keiichi, Yamada; Kuchar, J. (2006). Preliminary Study of Behavioral and Safety
Effects of Driver Dependence on a Warning System in a Driving Simulator.
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part A: Systems and
Humans. Vol. 36, No. 3. 2006, 5.
Kobayashi, Y.; Kimura, T.; Yamamura, T. (2006). Development of a Prototype Driver
Support System with Accelerator Pedal Reaction Force Control and Driving
and Braking Force Control. SAE, 2006-01-0572.
Kyongsu, Yi; Jintai, Chung. Nonlinear brake control for vehicle CW/CA Systems.
IEEE/ASME Transactions on Mechatronics, 2001, 6 (1): 17-25.
Lee, K. and Peng, H. (2004). Identification and Verification of a Longitudinal Human
Driving Model for Collision Warning and Avoidance System. Int. J. Vehicle
Autonomous Systems, Vol. 2, No. 1/2, 2004.
Marchau, V; Van der Heijden, R; Molin, E (2005). Desirability of advanced driver
assistance from road safety perspective: the case of ISA. Safety Science,
2005, 43(1): 11-27.
Miller, R. and Huang, Q. (2002). An Adaptive Peer-to-Peer Collision Warning
System. IEEE, 2002.
Raksincharoensak, P. et al. (2008). Individual Adaptation of Driver Assistance
System Based on Real –World Naturalistic Driving Database Part Ⅱ:
Algorithm for Detecting Unusual Driving Behavior Based on Driving
Database. AVEC, 2008.
Reason, J. (1995). Driving errors, driving violations and accident involvement.
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Ergonomics, 1995, 38(5): 1036-1048.

Reason, J.T. et al (1990). Errors and violations on the road: a real distinction?
Ergonomics, 1990, 33: 1315–1332.
Song, Xiaolin; Feng Guanggang; Yang, J. (2008). The Current State Trends of
Automotive Active Collision-avoidance System. Automotive Engineering,
Vol. 30, No. 4, 2008.
Sugimoto, M. et al. (2000). Realization of head-on collision warning system at
intersections-DSSS: driving safety support systems. Proceedings of the IEEE
Intelligent Vehicles Symposium. Dearborn: 2000: 731-735.
Yoshida, H.; Awano, S.; Nagai, M. (2006). Target Following Brake Control for
Collision Avoidance Assist of Active Interface Vehicle. SICE-ICASE
International Joint Conference, 2006.
Yoshida, H.; Kamada, M.; Shimozato, Y. (2005). Experiment and Design of
Advanced Brake Assist System for Active Interface Vehicle Based on
Driver’s Gas Pedal Operation. Review of Automotive Engineering (JSAE),
Vol. 26, No. 2, pp.237-243, 2005.
Zhang, Lei et al. (2006). A Study on Collision Warning/ Avoidance Algorithms Based
on Drivers Behaviors during Car- following [J ] .Automotive Engineering ,
28 (4) : 351 - 355 , 2006.
Zhang, Lei (2009). A Vehicle Longitudinal Driving Assistance System Based on
Self-Learning Method of Driver Characteristics. Doctoral dissertation,
Tsinghua University, 2009.
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Simulation on Fluctuant Effect of Automobile Brake Line Based on AMESim

Xianbin WANG1, Hongxing DENG1, Wenhui ZHANG1 and Shiyu TIAN1

1
Traffic College, North East Forestry University, Harbin, Tel: 045182191833;
email:shenwei_@163.com

ABSTRACT
The device producing a fluctuant load for automobile brake line is a new system
to improve vehicle security and investigate an automobile’s brake performance. In
order to study the fluctuant effect caused by the system parameters, the hydraulic
models around piston pump must be established, which are based on AMESim
simulation platform. Some system parameters include motor rotary speed, piston
diameter and brake liquid bulk modulus. By the simulation results, the analyses of
fluctuant effect caused by the system parameters in brake lines have been conducted.
Moreover, the simulation results, which are compared with bench test data, indicate
that the system hydraulic pressure property can be effectively simulated, and the
simulation model can be used for selection of key device parameters. The vehicle
system models, which co-simulated with the hydraulic system models, have also
been completed in the AMESim. The simulation results indicate that the simulation
vehicle with the device is able to reduce the brake distance.

1 INTRODUCTION
It is known that when the wheel slip is about 20%, the vehicle has the ideal
brake performance[1]. In order to keep the slip in proper range, the ABS switches
electromagnetic valves on and off to make the brake pressure increase or decrease.
To improve the ABS brake performance, the ABS brake line hydraulic pressure
instantaneous property and the fluctuant effect caused by the system parameters
should be analyzed.
The fluctuant effect of brake pressure is the brake line fluctuant effect. Using the
system integrated method, the device producing a fluctuant load for an automobile’s
brake line has been developed; this can simulate the physical structure of ABS and
produce the similar instantaneous fluctuant effect in the ABS system line. The key
components of the device consist of an electromotor, a piston pump, a brake pedal, a
pressure switch, a master cylinder and a caliper.
In order to produce the pressure fluctuant effect in the brake line, the device uses
a piston pump to carry out the pressure control. The device starts to produce pressure
fluctuant effect as soon as the brake pedal is treaded down. Fig.1 shows the
schematic diagram of the device structure.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 654
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Fig 1. schematic diagram of the device structure.

2 MODELING OF DEVICE PRODUCING FLUCTUANT LOAD BASED ON
AMESim
AMESim(Advanced Modeling Environment for performing Simulation of
engineering systems) is a dynamics analysis software that contains hydraulics,
mechanical system modeling, and simulation based on intuitive graphical interface[2
3]
.Through the study of the work theory of the device producing fluctuant load, the
system models have been established using AMESim.
The tandem master cylinder[4] was modeled as shown in Fig.2. The connection
with the tank was accurately modeled to investigate the first, passive, consistent part
of the pedal travel. The pushrods are connected to the master cylinder pistons in case
of failure of one of the two hydraulic circuits were taken in account. Calipers were
modeled at different, increasing levels of complexity, also taking into account of
roll-back, pad deformation and caliper deformation effects. The piston pump fixed
on the brake line between the caliper and master cylinder is the key component to
producing a fluctuant load. By the device diagram, the AMESim piston pump
mainly consists of a cam and cam follower sub model, a piston sub model and a
motor sub model. Fig. 3, 4 shows the caliper and piston pump AMESim models.

Fig 2. AMESim model of master cylinder.

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Fig 3. AMESim model of caliper.

Fig 4. AMESim model of piston pump.

3 SIMULATION OF FLUCTUANT EFFECT BASED ON AMESim
3.1 Simulation of Fluctuant Effect Based on Piston Diameter Variety
Fig. 5 shows the simulation results of fluctuant effect on piston diameter variety
of 6mm, 8mm and 10mm, while the motor rotary speed is 1200 rev/min.

Fig 5. simulation results of different piston diameter.

Fig. 5 indicates that piston diameter has a great effect on the swing of fluctuant
effect. With the increase of piston diameter, the swing of fluctuant effect follows.
3.2 Simulation of Fluctuant Effect Based on Motor Rotary Speed Variety
Fig. 6 shows the simulation results of fluctuant effect on motor rotary speed
variety of 800 rev/min and 1200 rev/min with the piston diameter being 8 mm. Fig.
7 shows the bench test results of fluctuant effect on motor rotary speed.
Fig.6 indicates that with the increase of motor rotary speed, the frequency of
fluctuant effect also increases. Fig.7 shows that when the motor rotary speed
increases from 800 rev/min to 1200 rev/min, the frequency of fluctuant effect also
increases. The swing of fluctuant effect decreases because of liquid hysteresis.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 656
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Fig 6. simulation results of different motor rotary speed.

Fig 7 .bench test results of different motor rotary speed.

3.3 Simulation of Fluctuant Effect Based on Brake Fluid Parameters Variety
In Fig.8, it is easy to sum up that during the 0.03 second, the brake pressure
increases greatly according to time. The effect caused by hydraulic bulk modulus(E)
is larger than the hydraulic absolute viscosity(Φ), by which, the brake pressure
grows faster and the max pressure is increases. The brake pressures are in the steady
periodic fluctuation state with similar pressure and frequency.

Fig 8. caliper brake pressure.

line1:E=3000MPa,Φ=42.5cP；line 2:E=1700 MPa,Φ=42.5cP
line 3:E=3000MPa ,Φ=60.0cP；line 4:E=1700 MPa,Φ=60.0cP
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4 CO-SIMULATION OF VEHICLE MODEL INTEGRATED WITH THE

HYDRAULIC SYSTEM MODEL
4.1 Vehicle Model
To analyze the brake performance of the vehicle integrated with the hydraulic
system, the co-simulation of the vehicle model integrated with the hydraulic system
model has been conducted. The vehicle model based on the AMESim mainly
consists of vehicle body model, engine model, power train model and the tyre model
based on Magic Formula.

Fig 9. vehicle system model.

4.2 Simulation Analysis
Fig.10 and Fig.11 show the co-simulation results at the vehicle velocity of 100
km/h. Fig.10 indicates that the brake distance has been reduced about 1.88 m when
the device works. Fig.11 shows the four caliper brake line pressure while braking.

Fig 10. brake distance.

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Fig 11. caliper brake line pressure

5 CONCLUSION
Base on the analysis of the structure and work theory of device producing
fluctuant load for automobile brake line, the simulation experiments of different
motor rotary speed, piston diameter and brake liquid bulk modulus have been
conducted. Moreover, the simulation results, which are compared with bench test
data, indicate that the system hydraulic pressure property can be effectively
simulated. From this the simulation model can be used for selection of key device
parameters. The co-simulation of vehicle model integrated with the hydraulic system
model shows that the vehicle with the device is able to reduce the brake distance.

REFERENCE
AMESim V4.2 user manual.IMAGINE S.A.2004
Jiarui Chen, Vehicle Structure, Beijing: China Machine Press,2005,282-371
Su Liu, Research on Vehicle ABS Simulation Platform Development and Hydraulic
System Property:[D], Jinlin: 2000,8-65.
Xinxun Wang,Yongping Hou, Resaerch on ABS Performance evaluation method,
Vehicle Technology, 2002（2）:22－23.
Youguan Yu, Application of AMESim on Hydraulic Simulation System[J],
Hydraulic pneumatic and airproof,2005, (3):28-31.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 659
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Driving State Recognizing Based on Driving Behavior Signals

Dunli HU1, and Pan YANG2, and Zhichun MU3, and Xiaohua ZHAO4
1
College of Mechanic Engineering, North China University of Technology,
and School of Information Engineering, University of Science and Technology
Beijing, Beijing, China; PH (010)-88802226; email: dunlihu@126.com
2
College of Mechanic Engineering; North China University of Technology, Beijing,
China; PH (010)-88804568; email: yangpan2007_cool@163.com
3
School of Information Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing,
Beijing, China; PH (010)62334967; email: mu@ies.ustb.edu.cn
4
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing,
China,100022; PH (010)-67390918; email: zhaoxiaohua@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Fatigue Driving is one of the main factors causing serious traffic accidents
and the study of fatigue driving can contribute greatly to avoiding road accidents.
Therefore, many researchers are making a great effort on how to detect driver fatigue
both at home and abroad. This paper presents a new method to identify driver fatigue.
The driving behavior signals, such as gas pedal, steering wheel angle, brake pedals
and so on, and PERCLOS are measured and facial video are stored at the same time.
PERCLOS and facial video are used as reference, so the feature vectors of the
normal state and fatigue state data can be extracted. The driving behavior data is
analyzed at normal driving state and fatigued ones. The Distance Classifier is used to
classify driving behavior signal. Improved results were achieved by using the
weighted minimum distance classifier in comparison to the normalized Euclidian
Distance classifier. Results show that data of steering wheel angle and distance to
center of lane can be used as data source to identify the driving state. The
experimental results also verify that the proposed method is valid.
INTRODUTION
Now, detection of driver fatigue is a hot topic for intelligent transport system
at home and abroad, so the research about methods for detecting driver fatigue has
made a great progress.
The method of detecting a driver's physiological signals
(Electroencephalo-graph(EEG),Electrocardio-graph(ECG),Electro-Oculogram(EOG),
Electromyography(EMG), cardiac, respiratory, etc.), which is a monitoring method
of contact, can accurately reflect the driver's driving state. However, the method of
contact would cause a burden and interference to drivers.
The method of detecting the driver's physical reaction is to find the operator’s
face characteristic (the blinking frequency, the blink duration, the pupil size and so
on). Drivers’ characteristics were extracted through the method of computer vision,
which is a real-time processing of the face or eye sequence image. Then we can
identify the state of the driver. Based on this technology, Carnegie Mellon
University(CMU) put forward a measure parameter of physical fatigue, which is
‘PERCLOS’. Through repeated experiments and demonstration, they also designed
the detection device, which is the first reported automatically measurement system to
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track the eye, to detect the state of driving fatigue. PERCLOS is the proportion of the
time of eyes closed 70% in a unit of time (1 min or 30 s). In October 1998, Federal
Highway Administration (FHWA) compared all these fatigue testing methods
including the duration of the blink, the blink frequency, etc, in the simulated driving
laboratory. The results showed that accuracy of the PERCLOS is the highest.
However, the method is hard to be applied in real-time for the device limitation, so it
cannot meet the needs of practice.
In recent years, with the continuous development of the sensor technology,
computer technology, as well as the artificial intelligence technology, real-time
monitor of the driving fatigue has become possible. More and more researchers
began to use the vehicle sensors to obtain real-time information on driver's driving
behavior and physiological information, and use this information to recognize the
driver's mental state.
RESEARCH METHOD
In this paper, the driving feature in the state of normal and fatigue are
analyzed from the driving behavior point of view. The driving behavior signal is
collected in a driving simulator. The driving behavior signals and PERCLOS80 are
measured and facial video are stored at the same time. PERCLOS80 and facial video
are used as reference, so the feature vectors of the normal state and fatigue state data
can be extracted. The Traditional Minimum Distance Classifier and the improvement
of Weighted Minimum distance classifier are used to classify driving behavior signal
so the driving state of normal or fatigue can be identified. It will then be possible to
carry out real-time monitoring using the driving signals.
DRIVING BEHAVIOR RESEARCH PROCESS

Figure 1. Flowchart Of Driving Behavior Modeling.

Different drivers vary in how they hit the gas and brake pedals and how they
turn the steering wheel, and how much distance they keep to the center of the lane
and every driver has his own driving behavior habit. Moreover, one has different
behaviors in different driving state such as in the normal and fatigue state. In this
paper, we analyze three driving behavior signals including gas pedal, steering wheel
angle and distance to center of lane. Therefore, the modeling of the driving state
based on the driving behavior is a multi-faceted, multi-level complex issue. The
modeling system consists of data acquisition system, de-noising, MATLAB data
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 661
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processing, feature extraction of normal and fatigue data, distance classification and
identification, the output of identification results and so on. Figure 1 showed the
flowchart of driving behavior modeling.
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
Platform of Experiment. Because we need a lot of data, a large number of
experiments related to driving fatigue should be carried out, which may result in
driver damaged. Considering the requirements of both the driver’s safety and the
authenticity of the experiment, we use the driving simulation cabin of Beijing
University of Technology. It includes a real car GOLF,a sensor system and 3d virtual
driving scene as shown in Figure 2. It can provide a driving environment which is
very similar to real car driving. We can get driving behavior data through all sorts of
sensors mounted on the experimental car. The simulator can guarantee the true
reflection of the characteristics of driving behavior, and ensure the security of the
drivers.
The CCD camera installed in the car which facing the driver is used to
monitor the eyes’ state (open / closed), and PERCLOS80 is calculated by the eyes
tracker (INSIGHT 1.0). In this paper, PERCLOS80 is used as physical information,
and it is the proportion of the time of eyes closed 80% in a unit of time (1 min or 30
s). Figure 3 illustrates the measurement principle of the PERCLOS80: t1 to t4 are
used to measure the value of PERCLOS. The formula is:
t3 − t 2
f = × 100% (1)
t 4 − t1
The f is the value of PERCLOS, t1 and t2 are the time that eyes closed from the
largest to 80% and from 80% to 20%, respectively; t3 is the time from closed 20% to
opened 20%, t4 is opened from a period of 20% to 80% of the total time spent.
Eyes
open
extent The largest pupil

80%

20%

t1 t2 t3 t4 t

Figure 2. Driving Simulator. Figure 3. PERCLOS80 Principle.

Experimental Process. In order to reduce individual differences, volunteer
subjects are men in the age of around 30 years, and all of them have about 10 years’
driving experience, therefore they all have own driving operation habits. All subjects
without sleep-related diseases were prohibited from drinking alcohol in 72 hours
before the experiment. One can’t have tea or coffee in 3 hours before the experiment.
Besides, all of them should have got enough sleep before the experiment. Because
14:00pm-16:00pm is a high-frequency time of fatigue –related accidents, it was
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scheduled as the period of the experimental test. In order to make the object drivers
driving fatigue, the road scene is monotonous and there is no signpost. Pine is on
both sides of the road and a row pine passed by the drivers’ vision at a second rate.
The test lasted about 90 minutes, we asked the entire experimental
environment to be quiet, and nobody talk with the subjects.
Data Acquisition and Analysis. In the process of identifying the driving state,
data acquisition is one of the most important steps. Good feature data should make
the differences among the data of different operations as small as possible for the
same driver while as large as possible for different drivers.
Data collected in this experiment included speed, acceleration, engine, switch,
wheel slip, gas, brakes, clutch, steering wheel angle, distance to the center of lane
and other driving behavior parameters. In the process of experiment,
ten man’s driving behavior data is collected. We find that there are three parameters
closely related to driving fatigue including the accelerator, the steering wheel angle
and the distance to center of lane.

Figure 4. Normal and fatigue Driving State.

The sampling frequency of the accelerator, steering wheel angle and distance
to center of lane was 30 HZ, and the experimental duration was about 90 minutes. As
shown in figure 4, we identify the driver’s driving states according to facial video
and PERCLOS80, and the three data parameters of normal and fatigue state in 60
seconds are analyzed. In the study, we find that data of gas, steering wheel angle and
distance to center of lane showing similar characteristics. From figure of driver1, we
can see that data of gas accelerator had been zero for a long time in the state of
fatigue, and then it had been a big adjustment. The data of steering wheel angle
presents a sudden adjustment when driver is driving fatigued. That is, the amount of
small and slow adjustments is reduced, while the amount of big and quick
adjustments is increased. From the data of distance to the center of lane, we can see
that the adjustments amplitude was increased compared to the normal state.
DRIVING STATE RECOGNITION
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To identify driving state, there are many ways such as pattern recognition,
fuzzy clustering and so on. In this paper, we selected distance classifier as a
recognition algorithm because of its simplicity and effectiveness.
Distance classifier is a simple classification algorithm based on vector space
model. As an intuitive and effective classification method, it is widely used in
practical applications. Especially in high-dimensional model, the use of cluster and
other types of classification methods have problems of high computational
complexity. It is difficult to guarantee the algorithm to convergence and so on. So the
distance classifier is obviously better. In this paper, the three signals of the
accelerator, steering wheel angle and distance to center of lane are analyzed by using
the traditional minimum distance classifier and the improvement of weighted
minimum distance classifier.
Traditional Distance Classifier. The basic idea of the minimum distance
classifier is as follows: generating a center vector U k (k=1, 2, …, m; m is the number
of categories) representing a category in accordance with the arithmetic mean based
on the training set; calculating the distance d k2 between X and U k for each data
set X ; finally determining with X belonging to the nearest category.
That, X = [ x1 , x2 , ⋅⋅⋅, xn , c ] , U k = [ μk1 , μ k 2 , ⋅⋅⋅, μ kn , c ] , c is category, c belongs to
{c1 , c2 , ⋅⋅⋅, cm } .
Normalized Euclidian Distance：
d k2 = ( X − U k )T Φ k−1 ( X − U k ) (2)
⎡σ 11 ⎤
⎢ σ 22 ⎥
Φk = ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⋅⋅⋅ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎣ σ nn ⎦
Where σ ii2 is the variance of i -th component of the class k (i = 1, 2, ⋅⋅⋅, n) .
To use the traditional Euclidian distance classifier, the calculation speed is the
fastest, because we don’t need to calculate the variance and covariance. However, the
classification results are not very satisfactory. We used standardized Euclidean
distance classifier to calculate variance of the attribute. It can be regarded as the
weight of every attribute to improve accuracy at the cost of a little time.
The Weighted Minimum Distance Classifier. In the standardization
distance classifier model, 1/ σ ki is defined as the coefficients of ( xi − μki ) 2 . In the
process of calculating d k2 (k = 1, ⋅⋅⋅, m) , contribution of each attributes varies. Consider
to unifying the coefficient of each property, the distance classifier modeling is:
n
d k2 = ∑ (vki * wki *( xi − μki ) 2 *1 σ i ) (3)
i =1
m
σ i = ∑ σ ki , m is the number of categories, vki = 1 , if xi in the class k
k =1

between the minimum min ki and maximum max ki , wki = 1 ,or wki = 100 .
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 664
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In this paper, we first used MATLAB simulation to segment the three signals
into some non-overlapping fractions taking 1800 data, namely 60 seconds as a unit.
Secondly, we used wavelet to de-noising the sub-signals data. Take three segments of
three drivers as example, the de-noise signal of distance to center of the lane in
normal and fatigue state are compared in Figure 5. In figure 5, the red line is the
mean of the de-noise signal. (Lane referred to distance to center of the lane) Thirdly,
using distance classifier to classify the sub-signals data, we compute
element-by-element mean of feature vectors belonging to the normal state group. The
resulting vector is considered as the distinguishing vector of normal state. In a
similar way, the distinguishing vector of abnormal state is determined, so we can
obtain the two distinguishing vectors. Finally, each segment of the data is compared
with the normal and fatigue distinguishing vectors, and the different values give two
distance arrays, a and b. If a>b, the driver is considered to be fatigue; on the contrary,
the state of the driver is normal.

Figure 5. The driver's lane of normal and fatigue denoised data and mean value.
Using the two classifiers we can identify the driving state, the results for 3
drivers are compared as shown in figure 6. In figure 6, all of the test data of the lane
is collected when the driver was driving in a fatigued state. Top is the result of using
standardized Euclidean distance classifier. Bottom is the result of using the weighted
minimum distance classifier. We can see that the red line is below the blue dotted line.
It showed the data is near to fatigue distinguishing vectors. The driver was in a
fatigued driving state.
Classifying 90 data sets on the three signals through the standard Euclidean
distance classifier and the weighted minimum distance classifier, the driving state of
segments can be identified. The identification results are compared with the state of
facial video and PERCLOS80. The classification accuracy of each classifier for each
signal is the percentage of the successful identification examples to the total test data.
The experimental results are shown in tables 1, 2 and 3 below:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 665
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Figure 6(a). Identify results of the driver 1’s lane of fatigue state data.

Figure 6(b). Identify results of the driver 2’s lane of fatigue state data.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 666
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Figure 6(c). Identify results of the driver 3’s lane of fatigue state data.

Table 1. Identification Results of Driver1’s three signals.

Accelerator Steering Lane
0.400 0.711 0.529 0.400 0.711 0.529 0.400 0.711 0.529
Normalized
0.622 0.577 0.600 0.622 0.578 0.600 0.622 0.578 0.600
Euclidian
0.588 0.511 0.700 0.588 0.511 0.700 0.588 0.511 0.700
Distance
0.537 0.600 0.610 0.537 0.600 0.610 0.537 0.600 0.610

The 0.588 0.633 0.706 0.588 0.633 0.706 0.588 0.633 0.706
weighted 0.656 0.667 0.756 0.656 0.667 0.756 0.656 0.667 0.756
minimum 0.622 0.700 0.767 0.622 0.700 0.767 0.622 0.700 0.767
distance
0.622 0.667 0.743 0.622 0.667 0.743 0.622 0.667 0.743
classifier
Marked: Average Classification Accuracy
Table 2. Identification Results of Driver2’s three signals.
Accelerator Steering Lane
0.500 0.533 0.544 0.500 0.533 0.544 0.500 0.533 0.544
Normalized
0.389 0.489 0.722 0.389 0.489 0.722 0.389 0.489 0.722
Euclidian
0.588 0.633 0.567 0.588 0.633 0.567 0.588 0.633 0.567
Distance
0.492 0.552 0.611 0.492 0.552 0.611 0.492 0.552 0.611

The 0.700 0.433 0.622 0.700 0.433 0.622 0.700 0.433 0.622
weighted 0.578 0.667 0.678 0.578 0.667 0.678 0.578 0.667 0.678
minimum 0.622 0.744 0.722 0.622 0.744 0.722 0.622 0.744 0.722
distance
0.633 0.615 0.674 0.633 0.615 0.674 0.633 0.615 0.674
classifier
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The three experimental results in the tables above show that by using the
improved weighted minimum classifier, we can effectively identify the same driver
who’s in different driving states (the fatigued and normal driving state). The signals
of steering wheel angle and distance to center of lane all can be used to identify the
driving state. The recognition results of the two signals are better than the gas. The
identification performance was the highest with the classification results of distance
to center of the lane, which correct rate is up to 76.7%, with the largest average
accuracy is about 74.3% by using improved weighted minimum classifier. Then in
the future it will be possible to carry out real-time monitoring using the driving
signals of steering wheel angle and distance to center of lane.
Table 3. Identification Results of Driver3’s three signals.
Accelerator Steering Lane
0.356 0.478 0.433 0.356 0.478 0.433 0.356 0.478 0.433
Normalized
0.467 0.633 0.744 0.467 0.633 0.744 0.467 0.633 0.744
Euclidian
0.422 0.589 0.622 0.422 0.589 0.622 0.422 0.589 0.622
Distance
0.415 0.567 0.600 0.415 0.567 0.600 0.415 0.567 0.600

The 0.415 0.567 0.600 0.415 0.567 0.600 0.415 0.567 0.600
weighted 0.478 0.633 0.767 0.478 0.633 0.767 0.478 0.633 0.767
minimum 0.622 0.722 0.700 0.622 0.722 0.700 0.622 0.722 0.700
distance
0.522 0.678 0.656 0.522 0.678 0.656 0.522 0.678 0.656
classifier
CONCLUSION
In this paper, we collected a great deal of data for driving behavior and
physical signals in the high fidelity driver simulator. The normal and fatigued driving
state data are analyzed and the driving behavior characteristics are analyzed. We
proposed a method of detecting driving fatigue based on driving behavior data and
the weighted minimum distance classifier, which is different from the traditional
method of detecting driving fatigue. The method can recognize the same driver
who’s in different driving states (fatigue driving or normal driving) through the
collected data. All of the above mentioned jobs pave a way for future research. In the
future research, we will be using integration technology of the three signals to
improve the driving state recognition rate, and in order to reduce error of the driving
state, we will increase the accuracy of perclos80.
It will lay the initial foundation for the development of simple and practical
device to detect driving fatigue. We also plan to use this method to model individual
drivers.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This paper is supported by key laboratory of field bus technology of North
China University of Technology.
REFERENCES
Dinges DF, Grace R. (1998) “PERCLOS : a valid psycho-physiological measure of
alertness as assessed by psychomotor vigilance”. Federal Highway
Administration, Office of Motor Carriers. :26 229
Liping-Du, Mingwang-Mao. (2007) “Research On Drive Fatigue Detection Using
Wavelet Transform”. 1-4244-1266-8/07,IEEE.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 668
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Liying-Lang, Haoxiang-Qi. (2008) “The Study of Driver Fatigue Monitor Algorithm

Combined PERCLOS and AECS”. 2008 International Conference on
Computer Science and Software Engineering.
Bin-Chong, Yumei-Fan, Xuehao-Song, YanJiong-Zhong. (2007) “The primary
Research of Drowsy Driving Behavior”. Micro-computer information.
1008-0570 08-1-0275-03，P275-277
Kang-Huang, Quanliang-Ma. (2007) “The Research and Modeling of Drowsy
Driving Behavior”. Micro-computer information.1008-0570 08-1- 0272-03,
P272-274
Chunping-Li, Jing-Ren. (2005) “Improved minimum distance classifier—weighted
minimum distance classifier”. Computer Applications,
1001-908105-0992-03, P992-994
Weiguo-Liu. “Design and Application of MATLAB procedures”. Higher Education
Press.
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A Research on The Traffic Safety Characteristics of Two-Lane Highway in

China's Mountain Area

Tiejun ZHANG1, Chengcheng TANG1, Yong HE1

1
Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Communications, 8 Xitucheng Rd,
Beijing, China, PH (010) 6237-8943; FAX (010) 6236-3428; email:
tj.zhang@rioh.cn
ABSTRACT
In order to understand the traffic safety characteristics of two-lane highways
in China's Mountain area , a systemic analysis was conducted. Two-lane Highways
with more than 3,500 kilometers were investigated for accident data, geometry
designs and roadside features. The analysis includes a routine analysis, single-factor
safety analysis and multi-factor safety analysis. The routine analysis shows that
segments passing by villages have a greater tendency to be involved in traffic
accidents. The single-factor analysis shows that two-lane highways with driveway
density of 5 and roadbed width of 8 metersexperience the lowest accident rate with
respect to other analyses. Negative binomial modeling technique was applied and
proven to be the best for multi-factor analysis. The results show that village
influence, truck proportion, the horizontal alignment, and driveway density
influence two-lane highway safety significantly.
Two-lane highways, such as secondary, tertiary and some of fourth grade
highways, are main kinds of highways in China’s mountain areas. The secondary
and tertiary highways have less than 20 percent of total highways, but there were
more than 60 percent of the total traffic accidents and death counts in 2007[1] in
those locations. Traffic safety conditions of two-lane highways is very serious
subject. Because most two-lane highways are located in mountain areas have many
fatal accidents , it is necessary to study the traffic safety problem of the two-lane
highways in mountain areas.
Usually, two-lane highways have less roadbed width(including the width of
road surface and shoulder) and few driveways(access roads) in mountain areas than
in plain areas. The factors which influence traffic safety are also different, but
roadbed width, driveway, truck transportation and inappropriate geometric
alignment are the most important factors that influenc traffic safety in mountain
areas. To understand the safety features of two-lane highway in China's mountain
areas, research on two-lane highways in Beijing have been conducted. The research
included routine analysis, single-factor safety analysis and multi-factor safety
analysis aiming at those specific factors listed above.
The routine analysis does not only to show some basic safety characteristics
of two-lane highways, but also is the basis for the multi-factor analysis. The single-
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factor analysis shows the valuable safety characteristics respectively and can be one
part of the accident prediction model. The multi-factor analysis shows the safety
characteristics when putting many variables together.
PREVIOUS STUDIES
There are many other correlative research about traffic safety of two-lane
highways in mountain areas in foreign countries, for example, the alignment safety
analysis and the study of accident prediction model. The IHSDM (Interactive
Highway Safety Design Model) which was done by FHWA was most commonly
applied. The accident prediction model in IHSDM was a composite research for
many factors which influence traffic safety; the AMF (Accident Modification
Factors) were made to reflect the actual influences of single-factors. The highway
was usually divided into segments and crossings to study them respectively. As a
result, the truck proportion, alignment, driveway density and roadside conditions
were established factors influencing two-lane highway traffic safety markedly.[2,3,4]
Research about the traffic safety of two-lane highway in mountain area in
China has been minimal. The Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of
Communications has done some work in two researches called “Research on the
Road Safety Evaluation of Western Roads” and “Research on highway safety
manual.” These researches also included single-factor safety analysis and accident
prediction model study. They were found that there were some accordant
conclusions between China and other countries. Because there are many villages
along the highways, highways were divided into not only crossings and segments,
but also segments passing by village.[5,6]
Accident Prediction Model is often used in multi-factor analysis. Multiple
Linear Regression, Possion Regression and Negative Binomial Regression are three
approaches which have been used to relate accidents to geometric characters and
traffic related explanatory factors. In addition, there are Zero-Inflated Poisson Model,
Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Model and other extended negative models that
were applied [7~10]. But it is strongly inclined to use Negative Binomial Regression
Model rather than other models. Certain amounts of over dispersion must always be
expected and Negative Binomial Regression Model can be used easily[7].
DATA DESCRIPTION
In order to investigate the safety characteristics of two-lane highways in
China's mountain areas, data collection works was conducted. More than 3500 km
typical mountain two-lane highways in Beijing were reviewed and selected for
analysis. Accident data of a period of 3 years (2001-2003) accounted for more than
1000 accidents on those highways. This data was used for routine analysis, single-
factor safety analysis and multi-factor analysis.
Detailed data collection of traffic accidents, traffic volumes, road alignments,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 671
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driveways, and roadside condition data was conducted. Accident data was collected
from the traffic police department. Traffic volume data was collected from traffic
observation station located along the highways. Road geometric data was collected
by an vehicle instrument named Gipstric System[5]. The driveway data and roadside
data were recorded from field surveys.
ROUTINE ANALYSIS
Traffic accidents in mountain areas are related to humans, vehicles, roads,
and highway environments. Humans are the major factor for influencing traffic
accidents. People tend to speed, park illegally, drive fatigued, as well as have a lack
of the driving awareness of traffic safety regulations. Though there are few direct
descriptions about inappropriate road factors in accident records, there are still a lot
of space to improve traffic safety from the view of a road. Meanwhile, many aspects
of security issues of humans are more prominent in the faultiness design of road
sections.
In routine analysis, the analysis of spatial distribution characteristics,
accident type distribution characteristics, and accident severity analysis
characteristics was conducted.
(1)Spatial Distribution Analysis
According to the locations of the accidents, combined with China's national
conditions, highways are divided into sections of the ordinary segments, crossing
segments and segments passing by villages. As a result, there is an average of 11.5
accidents per kilometer in common segments, 17.5 accidents per kilometer in
segments passing by village, 7.3 accidents per crossing segments. The ranges are
about 200 meters, including crossing area and the scope influenced by crossing.
Segments passing by villages have a greater tendency to be involved in
traffic accidents because there are many interferences when vehicles pass through
villages. The crossing has the lowest accident rate, which is contrary to foreign
results because the crossings are always smaller in mountain areas. The others have
many of the accident sites that are noted as “××site” and could not be included.
Segments passing by villages should be taken as the most important in traffic safety
improvement projects.
(2) Accident Type Distribution
According to the type of accidents acquired, accidents were divided into
collision accidents, rear-end accidents, roadside accidents and other accidents.
Vehicles that traveled into ditches and out of the way were also included in roadside
accidents. Face-collision is an accident with vehicles run in reverse orientation, side
impact and second collision included in collision accidents The types of rear-ended
accidents include rear-ended accident and the accident with vehicles that run in same
orientation, etc. Rolling, overturned, and collision of the other stationary vehicles
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are included into other accidents. In the two-lane road of China's mountain areas,
rear-end and collision accounts for a large proportion.

Figure 1 Mountain area two-lane road accident basing on distributing shape.

(3) Accident Severity Analysis
As shown in figure 2, the proportion of slight accident is the most of all
accidents, which is more than 90 percent. There are some accidents with common
severity and few accidents with life lost.
0.03% 1.25%
8.50%
0.03% super severity

severity

common severity

slight

90.18% other

Figure 2 Mountain area two-lane road accident basing on accident severity.

SINGLE-FACTOR ANALYSIS
Based on the data collected and reviewed, safety research work by single-
factor analysis was conducted, which focused on the traffic safety character of the
width of the roadbed and the driveway densitynumber of access roads along the
highway per kilometer.
（1）Roadbed Safety Analysis
At present, there are 9 kinds of two-lane highway roadbed widths, and the
width ranges between 7 and 16 meters, are shown in table 1. In order to take full
account of traffic volume, the length of the road and other factors, vehicle accident
billion kilometers were chosen as the analysis variable.
Table 1.Samples for width of roadbed.
width of roadbed （m） 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 16
Highway number 2 4 5 6 3 1 1 1 1
Length(km) 10.6 92.6 91.9 104.9 49.3 4.1 2.5 17.7 15.3
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 673
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Figure 3.The analysis figure basing on accident rate with roadbed width.
Roadbed safety analysis indicates that the line is like a wave. First widening
road experience has low accident rate. Then widening road experience has a higher
accident rate. Last widening road experiences lower accident rates. All of those
happen in a certain widths of the roadbed. The statistical analysis also indicates that
the two-lane highways with 8 meters width of roadbed experiences the lowest
accident rate.
As a result of field observation, at first widening the road provides a security
space for the vehicle within a certain width of the roadbed and is helpful to improve
traffic safety. But widening a road will provide drivers more space for overtaking
and even the possibility of overtaking illegally with the width of the roadbed up to a
certain value.
In some people’s viewpoints, highways with wider roadbeds have fewer
accidents. In fact this was only true when the highway’s roadbed width was in a
range. So the width of roadbed should be taken reasonably, especially when thinking
about traffic safety and soil saving.
（2）Driveway Density Analysis
In this research, there are 15 types of two-lane highway driveway densities.
The densities range between 0 and 16 per kilometer, as shown in table 2. The
analysis variable of two-lane highway driveways is a driveway’s billion kilometers
vehicle accident rate, which was shown in Figure 4.
Table 2. Samples for driveway density.
Driveway density 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(per kilomete)
Segment number 780 400 257 153 145 98 60 40
Driveway density 8 9 10 11 12 15 16
(per kilomete)
Segment number 18 12 6 3 4 2 2
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Figure 4. The analysis figure basing on driveway density and accident rate.
Driveway density analysis indicates that the line is like an arc. First, big
driveway densities experience fewer accident rates from 0 to 5. Bigger driveway
densities experience more accident rates when driveway densities are larger than 5.
The statistical analysis also indicates that two-lane highways, with a driveway
density of 5, experience the lowest accident rate.
At first, as a result of field observation, sudden appearance of the driveway
gives a greater impact to driver when the driveway density value is low.However,
drivers pay more attention to traffic safety with the increase of driveway density. As
most driveway densities may increase the interference to the vehicle, there will be
more accidents. In order to improve the traffic safety, driveway management should
be noted.
MULTI-FACTOR ANALYSIS
Multi-factor analysis can be conducted when a valuable shows different
safety representation when put together with other variables. Because there is more
than 90 percent of slight accidents shown in figure 3, the model made contains all
accident prediction models. As a result of the accident distributed location analysis,
the accidents in the ordinary segments, the crossing segments and the segments
passing by villages are different. Only the ordinary segment model was estimated in
this study. The model is a prediction model for all accidents and ordinary segments.
The negative binomial and other kinds of modeling techniques were used in
multi-factor analysis. While modeling, the software wasdeveloped using Visual
Basic to select the samples and inspect the stability of the models. The statistical
analysis software STATAT was used to carry out the regression analysis. There are
about 1772 samples in this study, the data description is shown in table 3 [1]. In the
table, qs is the accident number variable.
Table 3.the table of data description of samples.
Variables N MinimumMaximumMean Std.
Deviation
Yue 17729.00 48.00 30.00 15.3914
jtl(AADT) 17721601.63 11003.75 7065.18 2765.14
hc(%) 1772.63 65.66 30.46 25.00
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cd(km) 17720.05 10.30 0.27 2.3858

jrk(driveway density per kilometer ) 17720.00 80.00 9.34 11.53
expo(AADT×km×10-6) 17720.19 8.85 1.60 19.49
h(1/km) 17720.00 18.09 0.52 1.14
Qs 17720.00 28.00 0.53 1.70
Using the sample data, all of the models were made with Multiple Linear
Modeling, Possion Modeling and Negative Binomial Modeling. The best model was
choosen by the AIC criterion and experiential testing[10]. The ultimate model is the
Negative Binomial Model. Modeling results are presented below:

λi exp o × e(-3.530389+0.0604703h+0.0426319jrk+0.0751851hc)
=
Expo: the exposure degree of invert traffic calculated
jtl × 30 × yue × cd
expo=
106
Yue: sample data corresponding to the number of months,
Jtl: the natural average daily traffic volume,
Cd: the length of the sample.
Hc: the proportion of trucks in traffic.
Jrk: driveway density, the sum of the entire driveway on both sides of road.
H: the curvature the road horizontal curve weighted with the length
l
h= ∑ i i ×h{i}
cd
Li stands for the horizontal curvature value corresponding to the length in the
samples, cd stands for the length of the sample and h(i) stands for the ith horizontal
curvature in the samples.
The model shows that village influence, truck proportion, horizontal
alignment and driveway density influence two-lane highway safety significantly.
The model also shows that bigger truck proportion and bigger driveway density
experience more accidents. The sharpness of horizontal curve has a positive effect
on the likelihood of accidents as well. These results are similar with the results of
IHSDM[2].
The driveway factor is important, not only in single-factor analysis, but also
in multi-factor analysis. The multi-factor analysis shows a whole trend together with
other variables. In this paper the analysis of this was conducted respectively. For
example, one use of the results of single-factor analysis was to get the
AMF(Accident Modification Factors) in a model system[1,3].
For the roadbed factor, it is important in single-factor analysis, but not
important in multi-factor analysis. Accidents that are influenced by roadbeds in
different ranges are significant, however, not significant as a whole.
CONCLUSION
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 676
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

This paper presents a research work on safety characteristics of two-lane

highways in China’s mountain areas, and includes the whole situation analysis of
single-factor analysis and synthesis analysis. Based on the above analysis, the main
conclusions are as follow:
(1) Segments passing by villages have a greater tendency to be involved in
traffic accidents. Collision accidents and rear-end accidents are the main accident
shapes. Segments passing by villages should be taken as the most important in
traffic safety improvement project, and the improvement project must aim at the
preventing of vehicle collisions.
(2) Roadbed safety analysis indicates that the accident rate is undulate with
the increase of width in the roadbed. Two-lane highways, with a roadbed width of 8
meters, experience the lowest accident rates. The width of roadbed should be taken
reasonably, especially when thinking about traffic safety and soil saving.
(3) Driveway density safety analysis indicates that, big driveway densities
experience fewer accident rates from 0 to 5. Bigger driveway densities experience
more accident rates when the driveway density is larger than 5. Two-lane highways,
with a driveway density of 5, experience the lowest accident rate.
(4) The multi-factor analysis shows that village influence, truck proportion,
horizontal alignment, and driveway density influences two-lane highway safety
significantly. Bigger truck proportions and bigger driveway densities experience
more accidents. The sharpness of the horizontal curves have a positive effect on the
likelihood of accidents.
Many studies on two-lane highway safety has been carried out in foreign
countries. However, only a few have been carried out in China. Based on these
works, there is a preliminary understanding of two-lane highway safety features in
China’s mountain areas. Limited by the data, there are still a lot of inconsistencies
between analysis results and experience analysis. In future works, there will be an
enhancement of the accumulation of data, as well as the carry on of relevant tests so
more profound information about two-lane highway safety feature in China's
mountain areas can be taken into consideration.
COPYRIGHT TRANSFER AND PERMISSIONS VERIFICATION
All of the authors agree the terms in the ASCE Copyright Transfer
Agreement (CTA) form and the Permissions Verification form.

REFERENCES
He,Y., TANG C. C., and ZHANG, T. J.(2006).”Research on the Road Safety
Evaluation of Western Roads”, Bei Jing
Hauer, E., Ng, J.C.N.,and Lovell J.(1988).”Estimation of Safety at Signalized
Intersections”, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 677
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Kare, R., Elsenaar, P., and Beauchemin, M.(2004).”Road Safety Manual

recommendations from the World Road Association”. PIARC, Paris
Miaou, S. P.(1996). “Measuring the Goodness-of-fit of Accident Prediction Models.”
FHWA-RD-96-040, Washington, D.C
Persaud, B., Lyon, C.,and Harwood, D. W.(2002)”SafetyAnalyst:Software Tools for
Safety Management of Specific Highway Sites”, FHWA, Washington,
D.C
Shankar, V., Mannering, F., Barfield, W(1995).”Effect of roadway，geometric and
environment factors on rural freeway accident frequencies”,Accident
Analysis and Prevention, 27(30).
Vog t, A., and Bared, J. G.(1998).” Accident Models for Two-Lane Rural Roads”,
FHWA-RD-98-133, Washington, D.C
Wang, X. S.(2008).”Incorporating Traffic Operation Measures in Safety Analysis at,
Signalized Intersections”,TRB , Washington, D.C
ZHANG, T. J., and TANG C. C.(2007).” Data Collection about Prediction Models
for Two-lane Road Accidents in China”, China Safety Science
Journal.,2007(3),50-55
ZHANG, T. J.,WU, J.M., and Song, N.(2005).”The Accident Influence Analysis of
the 109 National Highway in Beijing”,Highway,2005(12),96-101
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 678
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Long and Big Tunnel Fire Smoke Barrier Water Curtain

Shuqing HAO 1, 2

1
The School of Resource and Earth Science, China University of Mining &
Technology, Xuzhou Jiangsu, 221008, China; PH (86) 516-8388-8936; email:
jdhsq@163.com
2
State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering,
China University of Mining & Technology

ABSTRACT
Fire, a dangerous hazard in any situation, can take on extraordinary
implications when it occurs in a tunnel. In the past, many scholars have conducted
research about how to evacuate people from tunnel fires. They have attempted to
optimize fire evacuation parameters through theory analysis, simulation, and other
methods. Here, the author has presented a new technology called the water curtain
smoke discharged instrument and it aims to speed up evacuation in the event of a
tunnel fire. Here, the author has analyzed the fire smoke transfer theory and the
interaction between smoke particles and high ventilation velocity to decide smoke
move law. Then the interaction between smoke and water is simulated and identified
so that the water curtain is effective. It is assumed that people can go trough a thin
water curtain easily. Finally, the new instrument about fire smoke discharged water
curtain is designed and tested. It is very effective and useful when considering
tunnel fire designs.

INTRODUCTION
When fires occur in tunnels, the smoke can have a disastrous effect on
people’s health and lives. In the past, many scholars have conducted research about
evacuation and optimizing fire evacuation parameters through theory analysis,
simulation and other methods. The subject of tunnel fires is hotly debated around the
world since fire disasters have occurred both on road and in railways in recent years.
The fires Mont-Blanc, France/Italy and Tauern, Austria in 1999, Kitzsteinhorn,
Austria in 2000, and Gotthard, Switzerland in 2005 are good examples. When a fire
occurs, the smoke will decrease visibility and release toxic gases which when
inhaled can cause serious harm or, in the worst circumstances, even death. This is a
serious problem and improvements in evacuation methods should be considered. As
the image in Figure 1 shows, damage caused by a tunnel fire can be extensive and
keeping this urgency in mind the author has presented a new technology called the
water curtain smoke discharged instrument.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 679
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Figure 1. After tunnel fire situation photo.

FIRE SMOKE WATER CURTAIN

Smoke Transfer Theory
Tunnel fire smoke plume is affected by many factors. In upstream the smog
particle is forced by many forces including resistance, gravity, buoyancy, particle
collision force, particle collision with the wall of force, and collision of particles
with other forces (including the pressure gradient force, Mageniusi lift(Lin, 2008),
Bassett force, and turbulence, such as the effort power pulse). The smoke in the
tunnel is divided into 3 fundamental kinds. These are one-dimensional vertical
spread district, two-dimensional steady stratified district, and three- dimensional
large eddy turbulence. The three-dimensional large eddy turbulence will result in the
smoke from the fire to flow along the tunnel wall. Thiis harmful for people in the
tunnel.
Water curtain instrument
Establishing a water curtain instrument will block the spread of smoke and
will also control the smoke. The intrument has 3 parts: water nozzles, water sense
switch, and water tube. This is displayed in Figure 2. When a fire occurs in the
tunnel the water sense switch 1 will turn on,the water will then flow through tube 2,
and finally arrive at water nozzle 3. Water will be jetted out through the nozzles
arranged in line and form a water curtain. The water curtain can decrease the
temperature of the fire and isolate the fire smoke and heat radiation in a certain
range effectively. This will contribute valuable time for human beings to be
evacuated.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 680
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Figure 2. Water curtain instrument.

Tunnel model
To study the instrument’s capacity to reduce smoke, CFD technology is used
to simulate the tunnel fire and the effect is studied with and without the water curtain.
Solidworks software was used to design the tunnel model. Import the tunnel model
to the Gambit to mesh. The emulation is done in different smoke flow conditions.
Figure 3 is the tunnel model without the water curtain and figure 4 is the tunnel
model with the water curtain.

Figure 3. Tunnel model without water curtain.

Figure 4. Fire smoke move situation in tunnel without water curtain.

Control Equations
Tunnel fire smoke can be seen as a turbulence 3D flow problem and it obeys
the equations as follows.
Conservation and mass equation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 681
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

∂ρ ∂
+ ( ρv j ) = 0
∂t ∂x j
Conservation of momentum equation

∂ ∂ ∂p ∂ ⎡ ∂v j ∂v i ⎤ 2 ∂ ∂v j
( ρv j ) + ( ρv j v i ) = − + ⎢μ ( + )⎥ − (μ ) + ρg i
∂t ∂x j ∂x i ∂x j ⎣⎢ ∂x i ∂x j ⎦⎥ 3 ∂x i ∂x j

Conservation of energy equation

∂ ∂ ∂ ∂Y
( ρYs ) + ( ρv jYs ) = ( Dρ s ) − ws
∂t ∂x j ∂x j ∂x j
Components transport equation
wF + wox / β = w pr /(1 + β )
Set up a chemical reaction step equation as . In which

wF is fuel， wox is the oxidizer， wpr /(1 + β ) is a product.. Introducing the conversion

X = YF − Yox / β ，the values in the turbulence are all instantaneous. Function X is an

integrated concentration and X is a conservation scalar, Fuel and oxygen-diffusion
equations for the transient component is:
∂ ∂ ∂ ∂Y
( ρYF ) + ( ρv jYF ) = ( Dρ F ) − wF
∂t ∂x j ∂x j ∂x j

∂ ∂ ∂ ∂Y
( ρYox ) + ( ρv jYox ) = ( Dρ ox ) − wox
∂t ∂x j ∂x j ∂x j

Simulation.
The tunnel fire under study was a fire in a long vehicle tunnel with a tunnel
length of 800m. A gasoline-liquid fire was used in this study. The fire size was taken
to be 35MW. The cross sectional area of the tunnel traffic space was 15m×8.5m
(Guo, 2008).
This study used Fluent for the tunnel smoke flow simulation. Fluent is a
software which uses the suitable numerical value method to optimization
combination in order to compute velocity, stability, precision etc. It can solve all
kinds of complicated fluid computational simulations. Many solving method can be
chosen from, and provided multi-grid method for accelerate constringency velocity.
So it can provide high efficiency solver scheme for the wide velocity problem. It can
provide the abundant physical models, and forecast laminar flow and turbulence
flow, all kinds of diathermanous, chemical reaction multi-looks fluid and many more
grid and adaptation problems.
Here design the boundary conditions and iterate it 100 times to convergence.
Mesh figure is as Figure 5. The movement of fire smoke with and without the fire
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 682
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

curtain is shown in Figures 6 and 7 respectively.

Figure 5. Mesh figure.

Figure 6. Fire smoke move situation in tunnel with water curtain.

Figure 7. Fire smoke move situation in tunnel without water curtain.

In Figure 7 the two purple plates present the smoke without water curtain in tunnel.
During a fire smoke will be produced and will in all directions. And when the tunnel
uses the designed water curtain, the water curtain will be opened once a fire occus.
The water will interact with smoke and even if there is somes water gasification in
high temperature we can see that if give the water enough pressure and mass, the
curtain can prevent the smoke gases effectively(RJ, 2008). This is revealed clearly in
Figure 8.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 683
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Figure 8. The smoke flow lines when tunnel contains a water curtain.
Analysis: when there is a water curtain, the fire smoke will be controlled in a
limited space and obviously people can run through the water curtain to evacuate
from the fire.
Experiment
Design the water curtain model in a limited scale tunnel to simulate the
curtain effect. Figure 9 shows the model.

Figure 9. The water curtain model.

From the water curtain model, we can see that a large amount of smoke
cannot flow through the water curtain and this benefit evacuation to some degree.
The authors believe that this design can become a very effective method for tunnel
fire evacuation and fire fighting technology.

CONCLUSIONS
This paper studied the tunnel fire smoke water curtain for human evacuation
in the event of a tunnel fire. The authors have developed the water curtain
instrument, then analysedthe water curtain theory and work principle, simulated the
smoke flow situation when a tunnel on fire has water curtain based on Fluent fluid
analysis software.
Here we can clearly see that the smoke cannot flow through the water curtain
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 684
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

and remains under control in the immediate surroundings of the water curtain..
People can go through the thin water curtain easily. It is a very effective method for
tunnel fire smoke control and human evacuation. In the future, the water curtain
parameters about water pressure and flow mass and so on should be optimized to
satisfy tunnel fire evacuation.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The work described in the article is all supported by the “China University of
Mining and Technology Youth Foundation (2009A028)”. We appreciate state key
laboratory for geomechanics and deep underground engineering of China University
of mining and technology support for test.

REFERENCES
Chi-Ji Lin. (2008). “Study on long tunnel smoke extraction strategies by numerical
simulation.” Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, 23(289):522-
530.
R.Y. Guo. (2008). “A mobile Lattice gas model for simulating pedestrian
evacuation.” Physical A, 387(208):580-586.
Preston, R.J. (2008). “The effect of evacuation on the number of victims following
hazardous chemical release.” Prehospital Emergency Care, 2008.44 (121):
18-23.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 685
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

A Security Analysis and Accident Prevention Measure

Shenquan LIU1, Yingying WEN2, Xiao LI2, and Jiangang QIAO2

1
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Taiyuan Institute of Technical, Taiyuan
030008; +86 13703517304; email: lsq623@yeah.net
2
College of Civil Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300131; +86
22 60435161; email: qiaojg369@126.com

ABSTRACT
This study is based on traffic safety engineering, engineering mechanics,
psychology, and other theories to solve highway accident-prone situations. By
analyzing the traffic accidents of the Beijing-Zhuhai expressway in Hebei province
and focusing on highway traffic safety problems, this paper uses the LAN Systems
Analysis method to analyze the causes of traffic accidents (person, vehicles, and
roads and environmental factors). The factors that could induce traffic accidents are
analyzed to develop prevention strategies for traffic accident, which could provide an
efficient way to increase traffic safety.
INTRODUCTION
As of the end of 2008, Hebei Province has completed the Beijing-
Shijiazhuang, Shijiazhuan-Anyang, and more than 10 other expressways. The total
mileage of expressway exceeds 2050 kilometers, and 576 kilometers of expressway
are under construction. They have initially formed around Beijing and Tianjin and
the Bohai Rim and ring the capital of the high-speed transport system, so the function
of road network reflects the advantages of the area characteristics of a transport hub.
With the "three difference" activity carried out in-depth, the rapid developments of
the highways optimize the layout of the road network, improve traffic conditions,
greatly facilitate people's travel, and ease the "bottleneck" for the Hebei Province.
They also provide good transportation security for social and economic development
and play a huge role in promoting the reform and opening up economic development
in the peripheral areas.
With the increasing volume of traffic, the rapid growth of a variety of safety
risks is also prominent. There are many highway safety studies currently, but they are
not systematic and not targeted. Traffic accidents are already a very serious problem
has and have become a major public hazard. Research is urgently needed.
ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
According to information provided by traffic police corps of Hebei Province,
since the the Hebei section of the Beijing-Zhuhai Expressway has increasing traffic
volume, traffic accidents are also rising. There were 1620 traffic accidents in the
Shek section of the Beijing-Zhuhai Expressway from 2003 to 2005; the specific data
are shown in Table 1(Zhao, 2007). The factors that cause traffic accidents are shown
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 686
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in Table 2.

Table 1. Accident Situation of Beijing-Zhuhai, 2003 to 2005.

Total Average Average
Accident
mileage mileage mileage
Driving Accidents rate for each
Route accident accident accident
directions (time) mile
rate (time / rate rate
(time/km)
km) (time/km) (time/km)
South 3.42 1.14
Thread 1317 6.2 2.04
North 2.78 0.9

Table 2. Accident Tables (Unit: Time).

Total
Illegal behavior 766
Body discomfort 29
Human factors 1355
Inadequate measures 118
Negligence 442
Brakes not performing 103
Brake failure 39
Vehicle factors Light failure 37 206
Steering failure 10
Other accidents 16
Road and environmental factors 59
It can be seen from Table 1 that the accident rate is as high as 6.2, which
means that there are 6.2 traffic accidents on 1 km of road, indicating that the road is a
high accident section. In order to ensure road safety, we need to ensure driver,
vehicle, and road system safety and reliability. Transportation system reliability
depends on the reliability of the driver, vehicles, and roads, which can be expressed
as Formula (1) (Ren, 1993).
P, = Pa× Pc × Pr (1)
In the formula (1): P, Pa, Pc, Pr are the reliability of drivers, vehicles, and
roads in the transportation systems.
Traffic accidents have great randomness and contingency, so they are
difficult to predict. There are many reasons that cause traffic accidents. In particular
environmental traffic conditions, traffic accidents may be caused by the disorder of
the dynamic transport system links, which are composed of people, vehicles, and the
road environment or because of many factors that are affected by people, vehicles,
the roads environment, etc. According to formula (1), choosing the human factors,
vehicle factors, and road environmental factors is based on affecting traffic safety.
The analysis is shown in Figure 1.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 687
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

the rare of the causes in traffic accidents

83.63%

12.72% human Factors

3.65%
Vehicle factors

road and environmental

factors
Figure 1. Rate of causes of traffic accidents.

It can be seen from Figure 1 that the causes of traffic accidents related to
man-made factors in traffic accidents accounted for 83.63 percent, followed by
factors of vehicle accidents, which accounted for 12.72 percent. End of these two
factors affect the key research. This paper focuses on these two factors.
HUMAN FACTORS
Human factors in traffic accidents are partly due to a variety of errors caused
by improper operation or accidents; the others are due to improper measures adopted
by road management. The reasons for traffic accidents linked to drivers can be
divided into traffic safety violations, negligence, taking inadequate measures, and
physical discomfort, which are as shown in Figure 2 (Hu et al., 2008).
The rate of traffic accidents caused by human factors

2.17%
8.70%

32.61%
56.52%
Illegal behavior

negligence

inadequate measures

physical uncomfortable

Figure 2. Rate of traffic accidents caused by man-made factors.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 688
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

It can seen in Figure 2 that drunk drinking, not using seat belts, driving
defective vehicles, and other violations of traffic accidents account for 56.52 percent;
fatigue, inattention, neglect of traffic information on hazardous reactions, or
negligent errors account for 32.61 percent; drivers neglecting to take evasive
measures or measures taken to avoid untimely, inappropriate account for 8.7 percent;
driver’s bad health and poor physical condition, as well as sudden illness leading to
loss of control in the driving process, account for 2.17 percent.
Therefore, managers of the road must set up traffic signs on the road in
various sections based on the actual situation of the road to alert drivers to take
appropriate measures immediately to ensure that a follow-up vehicle rear-end
accident does not occur.
VEHICLE FACTORS
As shown in Figure 1, vehicle factors were the second largest influencing
factor of traffic accidents. These factors are of two types: (1) vehicle performance
and the structural wear or improper use; and (2) the difference between vehicle
performance and road design, resulting in the poor coordination speed of the
vehicle’s movement.
Traffic accidents caused by vehicle factors are shown in Figure 3. As shown
in Figure 3, vehicles accidents resulting from broken brakes and lights and and other
mechanical breakdowns account for more than 90 percent (Li et al., 2008). The
primary reasons are as follows: 1) The automobile braking system design has a
hidden danger, leading to the automobile braking quality to be bad, causing the
braking force to be insufficient; 2) The automobile handling quality is bad and easily
goes out of control; 3) The quality of the vehicle tires and transient equilibrium
performance are bad when traveling at high speed travel and easy punctures are
possible; 4) Fighting performance is bad; 5) The vehicle does not have periodic
inspection and maintenance; and (6) The running speed coordination is bad.
traffic accidents caused by vehicle factor

8%
5%

18%
50%

braking broken
braking failure
lamp failure
19% Steering failure
others

Figure 3. Traffic accidents caused by vehicle factors.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 689
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An investigation of the Beijing-Zhuhai expressway revealed that speed of 85

percent of the high capacity buses and big trucks is 131km/h and 74km/h,
respectively, and, at the intercommunication circular route's entrance, it is very
difficult for vehicles change speed in the existing length of the acceleration lane.
(The speed at which the vehicle entering the acceleration lane to main line is
generally insufficient at 100km/h), causing the entrance vehicle (The maximum
speed which the vehicles in circular route is 40km/h) with the master line vehicles'
running rate difference is more than 30km/h, the running rate differences vary,
increasing the probably of a traffic accident.
ROAD AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
The road is the foundation of traffic safety; the geometric design, the
lengthwise grade, the transversal grade, the plane linear, and the longitudinal section
linear combination are unreasonable. The ability of road surface skid prevention
performance bad, the roadside facility not entire, the transportation environment bad
and the climatic change induce accidental factors, these constitute the factors of
traffic accident's road and the environmental.
TRAFFIC ACCIDENT PREVENTION COUNTERMEASURES
As the vehicle running speed on a highway is high, there are serious
accidents or especially large accidents once occurring traffic accident, and the loses
seriously. By researching accident causes and seeking rules of traffic accidents, this
paper seeks suggests scientific countermeasures to cut the accident rate and
strengthen accident prevention.
Strengthen public education. Use media, including broadcasts,
publications, and television, to increase the security awareness of drivers and
enhance the consciousness of safety, and also to train drivers, adjusts psychology,
and raise the level of safety.
Enhance the safety performance of vehicles. Emphasize regular
maintenance, inspection and service to vehicles, and also should consummate the
auto safety facility, like installing traffic safety installment (ABS, ESP), driving
automatic monitoring device and so on. Vehicles should also have passive security,
such as improving automobile body structure, RSR, head rest, and so on, which may
cause drivers to avoid injury or reduce the injury.
Improve road conditions. Increase tree lawn and the line of sight induction
symbols, eliminating the driver illusion phenomenon. Set up deceleration signs to
main line vehicles near circular route access so drivers can speed up and complete
the speed change on the exiting lane to realize safe divergence and confluence. The
design uses a new type of guardrail terminal. As shown in Figure 4, the header block
of a round-type anchor helps avoid a direct collision of the guardrail and the vehicle
on the Beijing-Zhuhai highway (Lv et al., 2008).
As shown in Figure 4, the header block is divided into the cushion section and
the reinforcement section. The cushion section absorbs the accident vehicles' energy
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 690
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and protects the safety of passengers and drivers. The reinforcement section
implements the transition from the cushion section to the normal section and
provides enough binding for the normal section guardrail.

Figure 4. Structural design of guardrail terminal.

Establish an accident emergency rescue service system. Experience

indicates that the first half hour after a traffic accident occurs is called “gold half
hour for life,” which is extraordinarily important for saving victims in a traffic
accident. Reducing the time after an accident can reduce the casualties as well as the
injury degree after a traffic accident. From the overall demand of emergency events
on highways, construct a rescue command system of centralism unification.
CONCLUSION
In order to ease the situation of the high incidence accidents on the
Beijing-Zhuhai Expressway, this paper combines the data of traffic accidents and
uses the method of systematic analysis to analyze people, vehicles, and roads and
environmental factors. From these can be obtained countermeasures, including
enhancing traffic safety education, improving traffic safety awareness, strengthening
vehicle safety performance, improving road alignment design, and establishing a
system of emergency response to traffic accidents. These are very important for
reducing the number of traffic accidents and decreasing their severity.
REFERENCES
Hu, G., and Qiu, Y. (2008). “Analysis of causes and research on countermeasures of
expressway accidents.” Communications Standardization 8.
Li, W., Zhou, W., and Gou, Z. (2008). “Analysis of the factors for expressway traffic
safety.” Highways & Automotive Applications 11(6), 51-54.
Lv, G., Yan, S., and Bai, S. (2008). “Impact property research on a new type of
guardrail terminal for freeways.” Journal of Shandong University 4. 47-52.
Ren, F. (1993). Traffic Engineering Psychology. Beijing University of Technology
Press.
Zhao, H. (2007). “Reasons and prevention countermeasures of Beijing-Zhuhai
Highway (Hebei Section) Traffic Accidents.” Communications
Standardization, 167-168.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 691
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Numerical Simulation Analysis and Monitoring of Ground Surface Subsidence

in Shallow Tunnels by Excavation

Xinzheng WANG1 and Liying XING2

1
College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanyang Normal University,
Nanyang 473061, P.R.China; PH 13525696713; email: wxz791023@126.com
2
College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanyang Normal University,
Nanyang473061,P.R.China; PH 13782165330; email: xly19854525@126.com

ABSTRACT
Based on the case of the underground passage beneath Changchun railway
station, the surface subsidence caused by tunneling beneath the railway is studied in
this paper. A 2d finite element model was established to simulate the tunnel
construction process. During the extremely shallow tunnel construction, the
maximum subsidence value and its rules were obtained by loading with
conventional quasi-static train loads. Train loads’ position where cause the worst
surface subsidence, ground maximum value, and its distribution were obtained by
moving the train load’s position. Firstly, in the construction process a suitably strict
control and monitoring system is designed to detect the surface subsidence. Then the
collected data from the monitoring system is analyzed and fed back, and the
construction is dynamically managed. Finally the construction work is ensured to
keep on going smoothly and safely.

PREFACE
The underground passage under the north and south squares of the
Changchun station is about 274m, heading south from LiaoNingLu, and stops at the
Changchun freight station. It includes a main channel, a buliding connecting the
south and north hall, and an escalator section. Construction of the south and north
hall adopts the cut and cover method, and the main channel adopts the subsurface
excavation method, its span approximately equal to 155.4m. The subsurface
excavation is supported with a structure of two columns and three arches. The
middle part of the pedestrian passage is 8 m wide, and both sides of the commercial
development zone are 3m wide. The total excavation span is 16.2m wide, 7.3m deep,
and the tunnel has a largest covering of 5meters. The main channel layout is shown
in Figure 1.
The new channel crosses Changchun station yard, 14 strands operation orbits
and part of hump lines, four passenger platforms, and four postal channels. In the
construction area, the underground pipelines distribute densely, which makes the
construction environment very complex. The orbit top surface and the underground
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 692
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passage roof are 5 meters apart. The minimum distance between the original postal
channel soleplate and the new underground passage roof is only 1.5 m. In order to
insure the rail station orbit’s normal operation, the original underground postal
channel, and the underground pipeline’s normal use, the surface subsidence which is
caused by the construction must be strictly controlled. Based on the current
underground structure design and the stratum structure method of calculation, a 2d
finite element model was established to simulate the tunnel construction process.
During the extreme shallow tunnel construction, the maximum subsidence value and
its rules were obtained by loading with conventional quasi-static train loads. Train
loads were positioned where the surface subsidence was its worst. Ground
subsidence maximum value and its distribution were obtained by moving the train
load’s position. During the construction process controlling the harmful settlement
not only provides a scientific basis for the construction decision, but also ensures
that the construction work goes smoothly and safely.
DK0+218.679
DK0+63.279

Platform Postal channel Orbit

Underground cut passage Jacking passage

Middle hall North building

South shaft

Figure 1. The layout of the main channel.

CONSTRUCTION PROCEDURE OF EDGE HOLE METHOD

The station goes though the shallow soft soil stratum and large span, thus
the shallow depth excavation edge hole method is adopted, with its main procedures
as shown in Figure 2. The entire construction sequential is described as follows:
firstly, carry on the tunnel edge hole’s excavation support construction using the
short steps obligate core method. The distance between the upper and the lower
steps is 5 m apart and each excavation is 0.5 m. Secondly, the excavation of the left
pilot tunnel is performed after the right side hole’s initial support closed 5 m long.
The core cave was excavated after the left side hole’s initial support closed 5 m long,
using the short steps core soil with CD reserved method. The right and the left
sections of upper step are apart from 5 m, in the middle adding temporary support by
I16 beam, and the distance between the upper and the lower steps is 5 m. After the
excavation of the whole section is done, the secondary lining is to be installed
together while maintaining the two sides span’s second lining. The initial
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 693
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

supporting of two sides hole is broken and carry on through the lining of the middle
arch in order to becoming an organic whole with the two sides span second lining.
Finally, the rest of initial supporting of both sides hole and the second lining slab is
dismantled. As soon as the two sides span lining is completed, the sides are
constructed. The middle arch is next in line after completing the midspan vault
lining.

1 3
2 4
First step Second step Third step Fourth step

5 6
7 8

Fifth step Sixth step Seventh step Eighth step

Figure 2. Edge hole construction’s step schematic diagram.

CALCULATION MODEL OF CAVERN EXCAVATING

The Key Technology of Numerical Simulation
(1) calculation section, strata and supporting calculated parameters
Select the tunnel segment below the existing railway as the calculation
section. Tunnel forepoling and radial bolting support are simulated as the reinforced
area. the stratum calculation parameters within the reinforced area are calculated by
some relevant test and field measurement. The test was done by Southwest Jiaotong
University, Shijiazhuang Railway Institute for the pipe roofs effect. The calculated
parameters of the stratum and supporting are shown in Table 1, and the calculation
sections and engineering geological environment are shown in Figure 3.
Table 1. The stratum calculated parameters.
Stratum and Elastic Cohesion Internalfrictional Poisson Volume weight
supporting modulus /MPa /kPa angle /° ratio /kN·m-3
Plain fill 10 15 13 0.35 19.0
Silty clay 16 40 19 0.31 19.8
Clay 25 50 25 0.29 20.1
Reinforced area 150 400 40 0.23 －
Preliminary 21 000
1 300 60 0.167 22.0
supporting

(2) Excavation scheme and the release coefficient of construction load

Combining the specific circumstance, this engineering adopts the edge hole
division method. Because the primary supporting has a bigger effect on the stratum
movement, during the upper bench construction process carry on the arch’s primary
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 694
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

supporting when the excavation load releases 35%; during the lower bench
construction process, carry on under-part primary supporting when the excavation
load releases 50%.
(3) Exert the surface load
Taking two conditions into consideration, namely ground load has uniform
pseudo-static train loads and mobile train loads. If the train is operating, assume that
the train journey is infinite, and doesn't stop running above the tunnel. The
underground passage of the Changchun railway station has a symmetrical structure.
Hence whether the train is in uplink or downward, the influence of the surface
subsidence is symmetrical. This paper only considers the uplink situation, and it is
shown as from left to right.

2.17
Mixed fiued

Silty clay 5

6.4
7.3

Clay

16.2
75

Figure 3.Calculation section and engineering geological environment schemes.

COMPUTATION MODULE
To calculate under the plane strain condition, use the quadrilateral
isoparametric elemen., This model is altogether divided into 7326 units, and the
units’ width of the upper freedom boundary equals to the sleeper pitch 0.5435m.
This is to load the train at different locations. Various advanced supporting are
considered to improve the stratum parameters, and the reinforcement scope of pipe
roofs choose 0.4 m. Calculation scope: both sides of tunnel 37.5 m, lower hemline
15 m, and top until the ground. The left and the right boundaries set the horizontal
direction constraint, the lower boundary sets a horizontal and a vertical direction
constraint, the upper boundary remains free.

SIMULATION TO CALCULATE THE SURFACE SUBSIDENCE

The soil initial stress under the station is mainly caused by the weight of soil
and the train loads. Among them, the static train loads and the moving train loads
have different surface subsidence. We take two conditions into consideration for
calculation convenience. Firstly, the surface subsidence caused by the tunnel
construction includes the static train load’s additional stress field, because a
locomotive occupies a tiny fraction, assuming that the add load is the vehicle live
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 695
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

load behind the "middle Z live load" schemata. Secondly, the surface subsidence
caused by tunnel construction under the station includes moving train loads. The
initial stress field of the equispaced quasi-static train loads is composed of the soil
gravity field and an additional stress field caused by equispaced quasi-static train
loads.
y a

G x

Figure 4. Static train load initial Figure 5. Moving train loads

stress field. active position.
In the finite element calculation model, the vertical load of the additional
stress field is directly applied on the upper boundary of the model, and the lateral
loads are automatically applied on both sides of the model by boundary constraints.
This is shown in Figure 4. For research convenience appoint the first locomotive
axle location towards the moving load as the train loads action position. This is
shown in Figure 5 where the action position of train loads is expressed by a. When
the train is operating, the surface subsidence is the gradual result of the train loads
acting at different positions. During the finite element simulation, under the
consideration of the train loads acting on different positions, carry on the tunnel
construction’s calculation and analysis and obtain the most unfavorable position and
corresponding maximum surface subsidence.

Train loads action position /m

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Settlement /mm

-5
-10
Driving directions
-15

Figure 6. Settlement regularity of the right vault’s surface with train loads
acting at different positions.

The Surface Subsidence After The Right Hole Construction

This article totally computed eleven different positions’ surface subsidence
only after the right hole construction. The difference of the train and the tunnel’s
relative position led to some difference in surface subsidence and settling tank
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 696
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

distribution. The settlement regularity of the right vault’s surface is shown in Figure
6, which is caused by the train loads acting on a different position after the right hole
construction. It can be seen from the figure that when the locomotive second bogie
arrives at the right vault’s surface, the train load action position is -8.152m, and the
surface subsidence reaches the maximum of -9.36 mm.
The surface subsidence curves of the moving train loads acting at -8.152 m
and the equispaced quasi-static train loads acting are compared in Figure 7. After
the right hole construction, under the moving train loads action, the surface
subsidence value of the middle hole’s vault is -5.87mm, and under the equispaced
quasi-static train loads action, the surface subsidence value is -5.82mm. The two
values differ by 0.05mm, increased by 0.86%, and the scope of subsidence is about
30m.

-13 -8 -3 2 7 12 17 22
0
Settlement/mm

-2 Position/m
-4 Equispaced quasi-static loads
-6
-8
-10 Moving loads

Figure 7. Comparation of surface subsidence of equispaced quasi-static load

and moving load.

The Surface Subsidence After The Two Sides Hole Construction

This article analog computed fourteen different positions’ left hole
construction after the right hole construction. The settlement regularity of the left
vault’s surface is shown in Figure 8 and this is caused by the train loads acting at a
different position after right hole construction. It can be seen from the figure, when
the locomotive second bogie arrives at the right vault’s surface the train load action
position is -18.48m, and the surface subsidence of the left vault’s surface reaches the
maximum, -11.96 mm.
Train loads action position /m
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Settlement/mm

Driving directions -5
-10
-15
Figure 8. Settlement regularity of left vault’s surface with train loads.
After two sides hole construction, the surface subsidence curves of moving
train loads acting at -18.48 m and the equispaced quasi-static train loads action are
compared in Figure 9. After the two sides hole construction, under the moving train
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 697
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

loads action, the surface subsidence value of the middle hole’s vault is -12.14mm.
Under the equispaced quasi-static train loads action, the surface subsidence value is
-11.84mm. The two values differ by 0.3mm, increased by 2.53%, and the scope of
subsidence is about 35m.
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

-2 Equispaced quasi-static loads Position/m

Settlement/mm
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
Moving loads
-14

Figure 9. Comparison of surface subsidence of equispaced quasi-static load and

moving load.
The Surface Subsidence After The Middle Hole Construction
This article analog computed thirteen different positions’ middle hole
construction after two sides hole construction. The settlement regularity of the
middle vault’s surface is shown in Figure 10. This is caused by the train loads acting
at a different position after the middle hole construction. This can be seen from the
figure when the locomotive second bogie arrives at the middle vault’s surface. The
train load action position is -13.04m and the surface subsidence of the middle vault’s
surface reaches the maximum, -39.49 mm.
Train loads action position /m
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
Settlement/mm

Driving directions -10

-20
-30

-40
Figure10. Settlement regularity of the middle vault’s surface with train loads
after middle hole construction.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 698
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

-18 -12 -6 0 6 12 18
0
Position/m
-10

Settlement/mm
-20
Equispaced quasi-static loads
-30
Moving loads
-40
-50

Figure 11. Comparison of surface subsidence equispaced quasi-static load and

moving load after middle hole construction.
After the middle hole construction, the surface subsidence curves of the
moving train loads acting at -13.04m and the equispaced quasi-static train loads
acting are compared in Figure 11. After the middle hole construction, under the
moving train loads action, the surface subsidence value of the middle hole’s vault is
-39.46mm, and under the equispaced quasi-static train loads action, the surface
subsidence value is -33.62mm. The two values differ by 5.87mm, increased
by17.5%, and the scope of subsidence is about 35m.

CONTROL MEASUREMENTOF SUBSIDENCE DURING THE CONSTRUCTION

(1) Construction measures for the rail traveling soil stratum. When the
passage crosses the railway, some auxiliary measures are adopted to reduce the
surface subsidence. This is done in order to keep the subsidence of the railway base
within the permitted range, to maintain the normal operation of the railway. A big
pipe is grouted ahead of preliminary support, an arch radial grouting is applied to the
small catheter to reinforce the soil stratum, and locks are added up to the arch foot
and on the lateral brace.
(2) Construction measures for railway postal channels stratum. The
underground passage crosses the railway postal channel four times. When passing
though the channel, the benching tunneling method is applied, with the construction
principle of "short footage, quick closure, and strong support." Because the postal
channel has only a 1.5 m of headroom, some auxiliary measures are adopted. For
instance, a preliminary support is provided by densely grouting the small catheter,
the reinforced postal channel bottom, and the tunnel vault soil. This is done, in order
to ensure the safety of the vault soil and channel safety.
(3) Technique of buckling the rail reinforcement. Because the shallow
tunnel construction causes substantial surface subsidence, this distorts the rail track
and affects the train’s passage. To ensure the train’s moving remains unaffected the
reinforcement technique of beam buckling rail is feasibly adopted to strengthen the
track structure. This is also an attempt at maximizing the line’s overall stability in
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 699
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

order to prevent the collapse that is potentially caused by the tunnel construction. In
addition, in order to eliminate the track distortion caused by the excessive
subsidence, variations of the surface subsidence is monitored for the three tunnel
construction stages: pre-precipitation and with the edge hole supporting completed,
the middle hole supporting completed, and the entire project completed.

MONITORING THE SURFACE SUBSIDENCE DURING THE

CONSTRUCTION
(1) Design of monitoring and measuring system
In order to insure the tunnel construction and the train’s moving safety, the
surface subsidence should be monitored during the tunnel construction, and the
shallow tunnel should be dynamically managed according to the monitoring data.
With reference to the engineering practice of the tunnel at Changchun station, the
surface substance is measured at every 5-15 m of a measurement section as shown in
the measurement layout. There are 11-15 points at each section, and 2 monitoring
sections at the four postal channels at the north and south sides setting up the surface
subsidence measuring-points at the canopy pillars. This is shown in Figure 12.
Surface measured sections mileage DK0+
093

105

126
131
137

156

162

183

195
1 2 3 4 56 7 8 9 10 11 12 Line of hump

North

1st platform 2nd platform 3rd platform 4th platform

surface point postal channel’s points canopy column point postal channel platform

underground passage centerline surface measured sections centre-line of track

Figure 12. The surface subsidence point layout.

(2) Comparison of the measured and the computed results

The actual measured data indicates that the maximum surface subsidence
occurred at DK0+195 measurement section (the eighth point apart of the center
channel ) and its value is 46.26 mm. The surface subsidence settlement transverse
curve of the relative measurement section is shown in Figure 13. The monitored
settlements are all in the allowable scope of the structures and this means that the
construction process is safe.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 700
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Distance from the tunnel center /m

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Settlement/m
-10

-20 DK0+183
DK0+195
-30
-40

-50
Figure 13. DK+183、195 Measurement sections surface subsidence’s
transverse curve.

In the simulated calculation, when the equispaced quasi-static loads on the

smooth railway are considered, the maximum settlement of the channel center is
33.62mm. While considering the moving loads, the maximum settlement is
39.46mm. From the comparison, the simulated calculation results are smaller than
the actuall monitoring. This is due to the non-consideration of the rail’s unsmooth
influence.

CONCLUSION
(1) The settlement value of the tunnel vault’s surface is related to the moving
loads’ position. Different positions have different settlement value. With the train
near the tunnel, the tunnel vault’s surface points sink gradually when the locomotive
bogie role arrives at the top of the tunnel. At this point the surface subsidence of the
tunnel vault reaches the maximum.
(2) The surface subsidence of the tunnel construction under the action of
moving loads is bigger compared with the action of the equispaced quasi-static loads.
The settlement value increased 5.05% only after the right hole construction. The
settlement value increased 2.53% after two sides hole construction. The settlement
value increased 17.5% after the middle hole construction.
(3) The existing railway tunnel is extremely sensitive to the uneven
subsidence. According to the strict guidelines of the railway line maintenance rules
and the rail surface irregularities allowed, the maximum allowable surface
settlement of this tunnel construction roadbed is 13.6 mm. Construction of the
underground passage of Changchun station strictly follows the construction
requirement, which read "pipe advancement, strict grouting, short excavation, strong
support, quick sealing, and frequent measurement". A series of plans have been
implemented to effectively minimize the surface subsidence and ensure the safety
and stability of the above and underground structures. These plans are integrated
with the long shed-pipe and pre-grouting with tubule for preliminary support. After
the short-step excavating of two edge holes the center hole is then excavated with
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 701
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

the short steps core soil with CD reserved method, reinforcing the stratum of rails
and postal channels, reinforcing the buckle rail, sorting out the rail in stages, and so
on. This can effectively control the surface subsidence. It must also be observed that
the coordinate construction inside and outside of the hole, namely excavation with
no driving, and traffic driving with no construction work ensures train operation
safety

REFERENCES
Liu Hui.(2002) “Application of Shallow Underground Excavation Method and
Shield Driving Method for Urban Subways” [J]. Journal of Railway
Engineering Society, Feb.:56 -57
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 702
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Analysis and Application about Connection Stiffness between Elements with

Different DOFs in FE Simulation

Tao ZHU1 and Shoune XIAO 2 and Guangwu YANG 3

1
State Key Laboratory of Traction Power, Southwest Jiaotong University, China. PH
(86) 028- 86466541; FAX (86) 028-86466543; email: 232665368@qq.com
2
State Key Laboratory of Traction Power, Southwest Jiaotong University, China. PH
(86) 028- 86466543; FAX (86) 028-86466543; email: snxiao@swjtu.edu.cn
3
State Key Laboratory of Traction Power, Southwest Jiaotong University, China. PH
(86) 028- 86466543; FAX (86) 028-86466543; email: gwyang@swjtu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Due to the discontinuities of rotation, DOF between solid and shell elements
cannot be connected well at the connection points. Based on the finite element
analysis (FEA), the method of the constraint equation co-modeling was proposed
and used during the modeling First, according to the theory of FE, the stiffness
compatibility equation between the connection points of a shell element and a solid
element were derived. Then, the FE examples were calculated and the results were
compared. Finally, the method of this modeling was used in a metro car simulation.
Theory analysis and simulation results show that the compatibility of DOF between
the elements has a great impact on results during the simulation. Using the constraint
equation to make transitions between shell elements and solid elements can
effectively eliminate the problem of compatibility of DOF, and thus achieve more
realistic simulation results.

INTRODUCTION
In engineering practice, we often encounter structures which are combined
with three-dimensional solids and a thin-walled shell, such as the connection
between a front draft lug and a traction beam, and a center plate filler and a bolster
in a metro car. Because of the extremely irregular shapes of these structures, the
calculations using the finite element method of these structures can only be
simulated by a solid element. If the structures around the irregular structures are also
represented as solid elements during the finite element analysis, the calculation will
become even more difficult, and the computer will take much longer to calculate.
These structures should be meshed as a shell element. Using the fact that a solid
element has only three degrees of freedom and a shell element has six degrees of
freedom, this leads to the discontinuities between solid and shell elements. To
address this issue, many people put forward their views. Gao guang-jun et al.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 703
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

proposed the compound element method, which was applied to solve the DOFs
discontinuousness between solid and thin-shell elements. Xie yuan-pi et al. advised
using the MPC method in ANSYS to solve this issue. There were also other people
who proposed using the stiffness superposition model, which is equivalent to
inserting a shell element in a solid element to achieve the stiffness compatibility
between the solid and shell element at the connection place.
The purpose of this paper is to study the connection problems in different
DOFs in FEA at key positions. Based on the previous studies, this paper proposes
the method of constraint equation co-modeling between the shell and solid element
connection place in the important transfer (or endure) force place during the FEA.
THOERY ANALYSIS
In the same model, the types and configurations of two different element
nodes are not consistent In order to ensure the displacement compatibility on the
junction surface; we must study and solve the problem of connection between
different types of elements. In order to ensure the displacement compatibility in the
junction surface, the interface compatibility condition formula should be
appropriate for the two different types of units (Wang Xucheng, 2004). For this
paper, the appropriate compatibility condition should be required to make the
component of the displacement of the nodes, which is perpendicular to the surface,
(that is parallel to the direction of the middle surface of shell and solid) between the
connection of the shell element and the solid element remain the same. In other
words, the two types of elements should be glued to each other.
Based on the above discussion, and combined with the proposed method in
this paper that using the constraint equation to solve the connection problem
between different types of elements; the expression of the constraint equation and
the displacement parameter expression are derivations for the connection position
between solid and shell elements.
Figure 1 shows two different types of elements on two sides of the element
interface. (a) is the solid element, and (b) is the shell element. The ξ = 1 face of (a)
and the ξ = −1 face of (b) are connected to each other. The nodes number on ξ = 1
face of (a) are denoted as 1t ,1b , 2t , 2b ,3t ,3b , and these nodes displacement parameters
are µi ,υi , ωi (i = 1t ,1b , 2t , 2b ,3t ,3b ) . The node numbers on ξ = −1 face of (b) are
denoted as 1, 2, 3, and these node displacement parameters
are µi ,υi , ωi , α i , β i (i = 1, 2,3) . Where, µi ,υi , ωi are the displacement components of
the element in global coordinates. α i , βi are rotations of the vector υ3i , which
connects node ib and it rotating about the two vectors
υ2i and υ1i . In addition, υ3i is

perpendicular to
υ2i and υ1i .
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 704
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Figure 1. Two different types of elements.

In order to set up the constraint equation of the node displacement parameter
between two types of elements, first, we should converse each node displacement
parameter to the local coordinate system υ1i ,υ2i ,υ3i . The relationship of the
conversion is:
µ ′ 
 i  µi 
υ i ′  = λ T υ  (i = 1t ,1b , 2t , 2b ,3t ,3b ,1, 2,3) （1）
   i
ωi′  ωi 
 

Where, µi′ ,υi′ , ωi′ is the displacement component along υ1i ,υ2i ,υ3i , and

 l1i l2 i l3i 
=λ [υ=
1i υ2i υ3i ]  m1i m2i m3i  （2）
 n1i n2i n3i 
As previously mentioned on the connection of solid elements and shell
elements, the component of the displacement of the nodes along the direction that is
perpendicular to the surface should be the same. The Constraint equations of the
node displacement parameters in local coordinates are:

µit′ + µib′ υit′ + υib′ 

=µ i′ = υi′ 
2 2 
′
ω + ωib ′ 

ωi′ = it  (i = 1, 2,3) （3）
2 
′
υit − υib′ µit − µib 
′ ′
=βi = αi 
ti ti 

Eq.3 can be changed as the following equation:

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 705
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

 µ ′ + µib′ 
 µi′ − it 
 2 
 υ ′ + υib′ 
 υi′ − it
 2 
 ′ + ωib′ 
 ω  0
=C = ω′ − it
(i = 1, 2,3) （4）
 i 2 
 
 β − υit′ − υib′ 
 i ti 
 
 µit′ − µib′ 
 αi − 
 ti 
Eq.4 is a constraint equation of a single node for a shell element relative to
the solid element. It is also known as the stiffness compatibility equation. We can
obtain more constraint equations of the nodes by the same way.
In actual calculations, the connection between solid and shell element are as
follows: solid elements have six displacement parameters for each node, and after
being translated to the local coordinates υ1i ,υ2i ,υ3i , they change
into µit′ ,υit′ , ωit′ , µib′ ,υib′ , ωib′ ; Shell elements have five displacement parameters for
each node, and after be translated to the local coordinates υ1i ,υ2i ,υ3i , they change
into µi′ ,υi′ , ωi′ , α i′ , βi′ . These eleven displacement parameters should satisfy the five
constraint equations in Eq.3, so there are only six independent parameters among
them. If choosing µit′ ,υit′ , ωit′ , µib′ ,υib′ , ωib′ as the independent parameters, the five
displacement parameters of shell element can be expressed as:
1 1 
2 0 0 0 0
 
  µit′ 
2

µ ′  
0  υ ′ 
1 1
 i  0 2
0 0
2   it 
υ i ′  
  0 1 1   ωit′  （5）
ωi′  =   
0 0 0
2 2  ′
     µib 
 αi   1 0 0 −
1
0 0  υ ′ 
 β   ti ti   ib 
 i
 1 1  ωib′ 
0 0 − 0 0 
 ti ti 
By inserting Eq.5 into the stiffness matrix and the load vector of the shell
element, and after doing further conversions, then finally integrating the result with
the stiffness matrix and the load vector of the solid element, we can get the solution
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 706
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equation of the system.

FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION
In order to show the rationality of the constraint equation to achieve the
stiffness compatibility between different DOFs, this paper lists four different methods
of processing the connection location between shell elements and solid elements.
The simulated results were also compared. These methods have been used in
simulation analyses of metro cars.
The model introduction. Figure 2 shows the dimensions, constraints, and
the loads of a finite element model. The thickness of the shell is 7mm. One side of
the solid is constrained in all directions of the entire surface. At the end of the shell,
it is loaded with a total of 100N along the Z direction. Material density is 7.85e-
9t/mm3, the elastic modulus is 2.1E5, and the Poisson ratio is 0.3.
Figure 3 to Figure 6 show four kinds of finite elements by different
processing methods. Figure 3 is the finite element model which contains the
constraint equation using the method proposed in this paper. In the following paper
we call it the CE model. Figure 4 is the solid element model. Figure 5 is the finite
model which uses the stiffness superposition method that inserts a piece of a thin
shell (the red part in Figure 5 has a thickness is 0.01mm, and is only used in
coordinating the freedom of shell and solid elements. It does not have an impact on
the structure itself) in the middle of a solid element. In the following paper we call
it the superposition model. Finally, Figure 6 is the finite model proposed in reference
(Gao guang-jun et al, 2002). For (Gao guang-jun et al, 2002) the compound element,
(the red part in Figure 6 represents a thickness which is also 0.01mm) it is applied to
solve the DOFs discontinuousness between solid and thin-shell elements. In the
following paper we call it the compound model.

Figure 2. Dimensions and FEM of model.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 707
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Figure 3. The CE Model. Figure 4. The Solid Model.

Figure 5. The Superposition Model. Figure 6. The Compound Model.

Calculation results comparison and analysis. Table 1 lists the maximum

equivalent stresses of the four modeling methods in the same model, constraint, and
loads application. Here, the result of the solid model was seen as a standard solution;
the results of the other methods were compared with it to obtain their stress-
deviation. From table1, it can be seen that the equivalent stresses of the CE model
was the closest to the standard solution It’s stress-deviation is only 1.01%, which is
obviously lower than the superposition and compound models with a stress-
deviation of 8.22% and 8.51%, respectively.

Table 1. The Results Comparison.

Max Equivalent Stress（MPa） Stress deviation

CE Model 798.94 1.01%

Solid Model 807.16 -
Superposition Model 740.81 8.22%
Compound Model 738.48 8.51%

Figure 7 shows a deflection curve along the length of four models. From the
diagram, it can be seen that the trend of deflection variety is consistent, and the deflection
values are slightly larger than the standard solution at the same position. Compared with
the standard solution curve, the deflection curve of the compound model along the length is
much closer. The deflections of the CE and superposition model are basically consistent,
and their deflection values are slightly higher than the solid and compound model. Their
differences, however, are very minor.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 708
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Figure 7. Deflection curve along the length of models.

The application of the CE model. From the previous analysis, it can be
seen that there are only little differences about the deflection values between the CE
model and the other models. Compared with the others, the stress-deviation of the
CE model is the smallest. Consequently, the CE model method is sensible and
effective in solving the discontinuousness problems of DOFs.
In order to further prove the validity of the CE model approach in a metro
car simulation (Cheng Jianmin, 1992), we compared the equivalent stress and the
position of the maximum value in an important transfer stress position between the
traditional modeling ( the position where the solid element and the shell element
connection does not do any processing, only direct connection with each other) and
the CE model approach. Figure 8 shows the result of transition modeling. Its
maximum equivalent stress is 311.371 MPa, and its position is above the connection
of the solid and shell element. Figure 9 is the result of the CE model approach. Its
maximum equivalent stress is 191.266 MPa, and its position is as the same as the
traditional modeling.

Figure 8. The result of traditional model. Figure 9. The result of CE model.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 709
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From the research, it can be seen that the CE model can have good
implements on the stiffness compatibility of different DOFs in models. On the basis
of expressing the real stress state, this approach can greatly reduce the equivalent
stress of the structure.
CONCLUSION
(1) From the theoretical derivation formula, it can be seen that using the
constraint equation to connect elements which have different DOFs can effectively
solve the problem of stiffness compatibility;
(2) Under the same model and load application and compared with the solid
model (the standard solution), the CE model, the superposition model, and the
compound model, they all have the same deformation trend. The CE model,
however, has the smallest stress-deviation. It concludes that the CE model can deal
with different DOFs of element connection problems;
(3) The actual simulation application shows that the Constraint Equation
model can have good implementations on the stiffness compatibility in different
DOFs of the model; meanwhile, it can also express the real stress state of the
structure.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This topic of research is supported by the National Key Foundation Research
Development Plan (2007cb714705), University Doctor Academics, particularly, the
Science Research Fund (20070613008), and Southwest Jiaotong University of
Science and Technology Development Fund (2007A11).
REFERENCES
Gao Guang-jun, and Tian Hong-qi, and Yao Song(2002). “Research on the modeling
by solid element and thin-shell element”. China Railway Science.
Vol .23(3), 52-54.
Xie Yuanpi, and Feng Gang(2009). “Study of ANSYS modeling on the combination
of 3D entity unit and plate-shell unit”. Journal of Machine Design.
Vol .26(4).
Wang Xucheng(2004). “Finite element method”. Tsinghua University Press. BeiJing,
China.
Cheng Jianmin(1992). “Finite element method and its application of strength
calculation in vehicle”. China railway Press. BeiJing, China.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 710
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The Electronic Control System of The Second-generation CST Vehicle

Collision Energy Absorption System

Zhengbao LEI 1，Sujuan WANG 2，Xiaoyuan ZHANG 3

 

1 Changsha University of Science and Technology，School of Automobile and

Machinery Engineering；the professor of Changsha University of Science and
Technology; PH 0-13574116737; email: doclei@qq.com
2 Changsha University of Science and Technology，School of Automobile and
Machinery Engineering；the doctor of School of Automobile and Machinery
Engineering ;PH 0-13755057544; email: wangsujuan36@163.com
3 Changsha University of Science and Technology，School of Automobile and
Machinery Engineering；the graduate student of School of Automobile and
Machinery Engineering ;PH 0-13657497996; email: feiyan00@126.com

ABSTRACT 
In order to develop the electronic control system of the second-generation CST
vehicle collision energy absorption system, the drive motor will be installed aside,
and the transmission gear drive style will be added to this system. Among the
first-generation products, the drive motor was fixed on the bumper, due to the
gravitation, the transmission torque of the flexible shock pole dramatically increased.
From this the second-generation products not only solved this problem which existed
in the previous products, but also reduced the difficulty of the electronic control
system design. On this base, the drive motor was confirmed, and the design of the
control circuit was divided into two modules, the main circuit module and the relay
module. The main circuit module comprises regular power supply
circuit, signal-input amply circuit, route switch circuit and signal-output relay drive
circuit. In the main circuit, a SCM STC89C58RD was applied as the core to the
control circuit, explored the corresponding control software, and got a successful
application in ZOTYE2008, consequently afforded a new control module for the
CST Vehicle Collision Energy Absorption System.

1 THE FIRST-GENERATION CST VEHICLE COLLISION ENERGY

ABSORPTION SYSTEM
1.1    The Principle of The CST Vehicle Collision Energy Absorption System
The CST Vehicle Collision Energy Absorption System(Lei
Zhengbao ,2005;Lei Zhengbao et al.,2008;Lei Zhengbao ,2008)was a new-concept
intelligence Vehicle Collision Energy Absorption structure, and was developed
originally aim at the limitation and the problems, which existed in the function and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 711
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capability part of the pressing crack absorption structure ,this structure innovation
formed a new collision energy absorption and energy absorption capability
self-accommodated control principle, it can smooth the collision process, power the
absorption ability, lighten the weight, reduce the cost, and increase the security in the
collision.

Figure 1. The schematic drawing of the collision energy absorption principle.

Figure 1 is the CST work schematic drawing, it was comprised screw
threaded pipe, screw, location support and so on. The screw was orientated by the
location support, the screw threaded pipe was installed on the car body, the location
support can be regarded as a entirety, either be installed privately.
As the collision act on the screw, the flange of the screw cut the screw thread
pipe ingeniously along the axis(heat insulation cut), and the cut will continue until
the collision along the axis is insufficient to cut the screw thread to achieve a balance,
the collision energy was absorbed gradually like this.
During the cut process, because of the screw thread loop is continuous, the
whole cut process was coherent and gradual. In theory, the force which applied to
afford the destructive cut was almost a constant value, so the retarded velocity acted
on the screw was seemed to be a constant value either, the collision process was
smooth. According with the demand,ideal energy absorption is acquired during the
collision.
According to the demand of the auto structure design, the cut screw thread
was either inner screw thread, or outer screw thread.
Compared with the pressing crack absorption structure，the CST has this
characters: ①smooth, gradual, controlled force–transmutation characteristic .the
collision process is more smooth; ② shortest length of absorb strict will be used to
absorb the given kinetic energy, this can maximum add the availability room of the
car, and lighter the weight of the car; ③because of the  instantaneous peak value of
the subtract acceleration was be maximum decreased, so it not so depending on the
safety ballonet as the collision of the front and back of the car, and it lower the cost;
④even the collision rate is different, the ability of absorb of the CST is also to be
best, and stronger than it; ⑤ fitting to all kinds of cars, including special cars, the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 712
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foreground of extend and application is wide.

1.2 The Development Synopsis of Electric Control System of First Generation
CST.
After the author publish a kind of CST in the second literature from 2003, the
author continue the research of CST for six years, with his team, and publish a
self-adaption collision energy absorb system,  it fills the gap which the second
literature existed. According to the invention in the third literature, the author
developed the first generation of the reduced reduced-scale prototype and it’s electric
control system (picture 2), the detailed data of electric control system of the first
generation was be given in the forth literature. In the  debugging of the first
generation of the reduced-scale prototype, it is found that, because the driver motor
was installed on the bumper (picture 3), when the impulse lever flexing, because of
it’s gravitation, a immense bending moment will emerge between the area of impulse
case and impulse lever, the problem emerged, that is the process of the impulse lever
flexing can not to be continued. Therefore, the author went on the research of
invention of the second generation production.

Picture 2. the second generation CST control system..

1.    screw thread bushing 2.impluse lever 3.motor 4. bumper module

5. front supporting 6. back supporting 11. inter screw thread
12. through hole part 13. fore lock hole 21. impulse case
22. limit outing desk 23. orientation hole 24. fixing forelock
41. flange42. sleeve 43. axletree 44. burmper
Picture 3. The driven form of the first-generation CST.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 713
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2 THE DRIVEN FORM OF THE SECOND-GENERATION CST

To overcome the problems related to the first-generation reduced-scale
prototype, the author explored the second generation CST driven form by improving
the ZOTYE2008 vehicle energy absorbing system technology (Figure 4): With the
driven form of Side-driven motor and additional transmission gear, it greatly
increased the torque flexed the impulse lever. The deficiencies of first-generation
CST electronic control system driven form were overcome and the designing
difficulty of electronic control system was reduced. Figure 5 is the second-generation
CST electronic control system practicality picture and its application in the
automotive ZOTYE2008.

1 back supporting； 2 impluse lever； 3 screw thread case；

4 impluse case ； 5 big gearwheel； 6 locknut；
7 lock gasket； 8 drive nut ； 9 axletree；
10 shelves fold； 11 bolt； 12 gasket；
13 bold； 14 pinion； 15 link plate ； 16 motor
Picture 4. The driven form of the second-generation CST.

         
ZOTYE2008 After CST installation relay module mainboard curcuit
Picture 5. the electric control system of the second generation CST full scale
prototype.    
3 THE SECOND-GENERATION CST ELETRONIC CONTROL SYSTEM
3.1 Driving Motor
For the ZOTYE2008 type’s characters, motor was installed aside and just
under the water tank in head of the car (Figure 6): motor was selected 12VDC, power
200W, common motor 3000rpm(Du Qingyun et al.,2009;Wang Sujuan et al.,2009) .
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 714
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Picture 6. the install of CST.

initialization

If the motor is not at the beginning location ,

the motor will be controlled to run until the
Motor diaplasis
location routing switch acted

Control the motor

action according Compare with the state of the rate and
the rate and the the routing switch ,if they were equal, to
state of the routing stop ,otherwise to control the motor to
switch run clockwise or anticlockwise.

Figure 9. the flow diagram outlines of the main program.

 
3.2 Control Circuit
The kernel of the control circuit collects a signal from the speed, and estimates
which stage the signal is at, the impulse lever which is drived by motor runs and
stops at the route switch of the stage.(Fig.7). According to this project, the design of
the control circuit could be divided into two modules: the main circuit module and
the relay module. The main circuit contains regulated power supply circuit, input
signal-input amply circuit, route switch circuit and signal-output relay drive
circuit.(Fig.8)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 715
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Picture 7. Control Scheme.

accumulator Relay module Driving motor Transmission system

Impluse lever
Static power curcuit   
 
The driving circuit of the relay
Control
Input signal amplify output signal
circuit
ceter

Routing switch cricuit

The rate signal of
the rate-vary axis The main
circuit module

Picture 8. The design module of the control circuit.

The main circuit module uses the 8-bit single-chip microcomputer

STC89C58RD+ as the core of the control circuit. STC89C58RD+ introduced by
Hongjing Tech has super Anti-interference, high speed and low power. And the
instruction Code is fully compatible with the 8051. The regulated power supply
circuit uses 3A current output step-down switching regulator integrated circuit
LM2576，the circuit converts 12V DC supplied by car battery to 5V DC for the
single-chip microcomputer; The input signal of operational amplifier circuit uses the
dual Op-Amp circuit LM358 and 6 Schmitt trigger CD40106, and process speed
signal from the variable shaft to the signal could be received by SCM
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 716
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STC89C58RD+. Five optocouplers have been used in the route switch circuit
which have a single optocoupler PC817 and a four-optocoupler PC847 to separately
connect the route switch, in order to achieve a good insulation and anti-interference.
At the same time three input AND gate 74LS11 have been used to estimated the
status of five route switches and the result has been sent to the external interrupt
INT1 of SCM STC89C58RD+; PC817 and PC847 firstly be used in the signal-output
relay drive circuit to isolate output signal, secondly use high voltage and high current
Darlington Arrays ULN2003 to amplify control signal for driving the relay, in order
to control motor.
The critical design of relay module has the selection of relay and the way of
normal-reverse turn that the relay control motor. According to the parameters of the
drive motor (12V, 200W), rated current is 16.7A, Taking into account the transient
starting current will be much larger than its rated current, therefore, the electric shock
relay (12V, 60A)was be selected produced by Dong Feng Electronic Factory, And
H-bridge was used for connecting the control circuit, in order that when the control
motor stops, that the H-bridge gives an instant reverse brake to motor for speeding up
the rate of motor braking.
3.3 Control Software
The programming of control software is divided into four parts: the main
program, speed reading program, scanning route switch status program and Motor
control program.
The main program mostly achieves initialization, reset and control of motor
based on speed and route switch. Speed reading program obtained pulse-width of the
speed signal from speed sensor on the variable speed shaft, and calculated the pulse
frequency of speed signal by the time function of T0, accordingly translated into
speed as a basis to judge. Route switch status scanning program estimated the
location of the impact pole by scanning the key assignments of five switches. Motor
control program mainly added an instant reverse brake to motor, to reduce the
moment of inertia of motor and control rapid running or stopping. The flow diagram
of main program is shown in Fig 9 and Fig10. The flow diagram of interrupt service
routine is shown in Fig11.
3.4 The Design of The Hardware
The picture 12 is the chart of design of the hardware of the system, the control
of the pin in the chart could be seen in the list 1.
There into:
(1)T0, T1：T0 as the timer, T1 connect with the rate sensor, as arithmometer.
(2) P1.5～P1.7：
K1, K2, K3 were drived and controlled respectively by P1.5, P1.6, P1.7
through the Optocoupler.
When the K1, K2 on, (P1.5, P1.6 is on active LOW), corresponding to the K1-1,
K1-2, K2-1, K2-2 action, non-polarized capacitor C6 chargers, and DC motor is
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 717
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being transferred. At this point, we can gives P1 the value of # 9FH;

When the K1, K2, K3 powers off (P1.5, P1.6, P1.7 is on active HIGH), the
corresponding K1-1, K1-2, K2-1, K2-2, K3-1, K3-2 takes movement, motor and
power supply disconnects, DC motor stops, capacitor C6 discharges corresponding
List 1. The introduction of the control of the pin.
Corresponding
the control function of the pin
pin
connect with travelling switch S0~S4(active
P2.0～P2.4
LOW)
Connect separately with relay K1~K3（active
P1.5～P1.7
LOW）
P3.0 Connect with the alarm light（active LOW）
Connect with rate sensor, as arithmometer, to
T1
calculate the number of the impulse input
T0 As timer
to the opposite direction, DC motors produces a reverse force instantly, this role will
be the motor force of the original rotational inertia switch off and makes the motor
stop, so as to achieve rapid-braking purpose. At this point, we can give P1 the value
of # 0FFH.
(3) P2.0～P2.4：
P2.0, P2.1, P2.2, P2.3, P2.4 connect travel switches S0, S1, S2, S3, S4
respectively. According to △L=K(V2-V02) and the maximum displacement is
380mm when the maximum speed of 50km/h the device out, the following paragraph
can be the speed what maximum speed reached the speed segment relative to the
corresponding zero relative displacement.
Speed segment was divided as follows:
Speed Section 0: 0 ~ 30km / h, L0 = 0;
Speed Section 1: 30 ~ 36km / h, L1= 94.05mm≈95mm;
Speed Section 2: 36 ~ 40km / h, L2 = 166.25mm≈167mm;
Speed Section 3: 40 ~ 46km / h, L3 = 288.8mm≈289mm;
Speed Section 4: 46 ~ 50km / h and above, L4 =380mm.
Take the location where the Impact Screw indents fully as zero point, then the
travel switches S0, S1, S2, S3, S4 were installed at a distance of zero absolute
position of 0,95 mm, 167mm, 289mm, 380mm at five locations. The installation
location requires travel switches can be depressed when the screw rotates around, so
to change the connected state, with the corresponding I/O port is on active LOW, and
after the screw crossed, travel switches automatically is reseted.
(4) P3.0：
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 718
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Picture 10. the process diagram of the main program of the system.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 719
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Picture 11. the flow chart of the interruption service.

When the problems in the program occurs (when the 33H unit values in
run-flight), P3.0 was put into the active LOW, it fixed diode emits lighting, and
issued a warning signal.
(5) RESET：
Power-on reset circuit was formed by U6 comparator , power is zero when the
voltage across C4. U6's 1 pin outputs active HIGH to reset the microcontroller reset.
+5 V power were supplied through R6 for the C4 charging, the voltage rised to 4V, at
both ends of the C4. U6's pin output active LOW, microcontroller reset pin goes to
active LOW, the program starts running.
4 CONCLUTION
According to the second CST generation of full-scale prototype control system
for the development, the following conclusions can be drawn:
（1） With side-drive motor and an additional form transmission driven gear, the the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 720
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weight of the bumper system of the vehicle were greatly reduced, after the CST out,
the bending moment existed between the bumper in the shock between the impulse
case and the impluse lever has been greatly reduced, which ensures that the impact
rod stretching process can be light and smooth.
（2）The new drive form, can ensure that regardless of CST stretching status, the
drive motor is always fixed on the frame structural parts. So, it reduces the difficulty
of electronic control system design, and increases the reliability of working of the
electronic control systems, avoids the feasibility of the harm which resulted to the
functionality of the motor and control system under a slight external force.
（3）Take STC89C58RD + microcomputer as the core of the control circuit, with
super-strong anti-interference / high speed / low power features, and the instruction
code is fully compatible with the traditional 8051 microcontroller, to achieve an ideal
control circuit about motor control of the CST.
（4）The determined drive motor, control circuit design and development of
control software and hardware, which all could meet the requirements of CST, and
has been successfully applied on the vehicle ZOTYE2008, and according to the road
test which showed that this electronic control system was running stable, and with
high anti-interference ability and reliability.

 
Picture 12. The circuit chart of the hardware of the system.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 721
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REFERENCE
DU Qingyun, LEI Zhengbao, WEI Shubin, etc. (2009). “Control method of CST
based on the car safety condition”. Journal of transport science and
engineering, 2009,25(2):83-89. (in Chinese)
LEI Zheng-bao.(2005). “Cutting the Screw Thread＂. China, ZL03124568.4,
2005.10.12. (in Chinese)
LEI Zheng-bao.(2008) “Adaptive impact energy absorption device”.China: ：
ZL200710034933.2，2008.8.25. (in Chinese))
LEI Zheng-bao,WANG Su-juan, etc.(2008).”The safety and energy absorption of
vehicle collision”. Changsha: National University of Defense Technology
Press, 2008.9. (in Chinese)
Wang Sujuan，Lei Zhengbao，Zhao Jian.(2009) “Electronic control system of
energy-absorbing equipment by cutting the screw thread teeth for
automobile collision with bumper system”.Journal of vibration and shock,
2009,28(2):181-186. (in Chinese)

 
 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 722
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Analysis of Track Irregularity Spectrum of Beijing-Guangzhou Railway

Z.w. LI 1, S.l.LIAN 1 and W.z.YANG 1

1
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; email: 0910120008@tongji.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Track irregularity, which is the main vibrating resource of vehicles and one
of the main factors to limit a train’s highest speed, plays a very important part in the
safety, stability, and comfort of train travel. The statistic samples used in this paper
are collected by track recording vehicles from the Beijing-Guangzhou Railway. An
elimination method of abnormal value and a zero mean normalization method of
track irregularity are used in the data preprocessing of track irregularities on this
railway. The change rate of track irregularity is calculated using the methods of
linear interpolation and wavelet analysis. The PSD of track irregularity is calculated
by using the periodogram method. The statistical and analytical results indicate that
the PSD of track irregularity of the Beijing-Guangzhou Railway contains a number
of different amplitudes and wavelengths of the harmonic part and a wide wavelength
range. A comparative study of a 12-month track spectrum indicates that track quality
is the worst in the month of August and the best in February. Finally, the track
irregularity spectrum is suggested as an index to control track geometric irregularity.

INTRODUCTION
With the rapid development of high-speed railway systems the necessity for
resolving the problem of track irregularities has become vital. Track irregularity is
the variation of a long-term average level in the vertical and lateral profiles. The five
parameters by which track irregularities are considered include gauge (track plane),
profile (longitudinal vertical plane), alignment (horizontal plane), cross-level, and
twist (transverse vertical plane) (Sadeghi et al., 2009). These geometric variations
develop when subgrade material settles down, the track, ages,, and ballast is
loosened over time.. Profile irregularities make the vehicles vibrate, which in turn
induces stochastic forces on the track. Under these forces the track may yield,
leading to further deterioration of the track and a lower level of traveling comfort.
Thus, engineers are left with the option of maintaining track irregularities within
acceptable limits (Iyengar et al., 1995).
Reading the power spectral density of track irregularities is the most
effective method of evaluating the state of track irregularities and track conditions
(Yang et al., 2006). It is the most important parameter for designing and assessing
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 723
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trains, tracks, bridges, and tunnels. Some developed countries such as America,
Britain, Japan, Germany, France, etc.have their own railway track irregularity
spectrum, which provides an effective management system to track irregularities. In
China the use of a similar system is still in the initial stages. The study of the track
irregularity spectrum and evaluation indexes have not been fully developed to
manage track quality. In this paper, statistical samples are collected by track
recording vehicles from the Beijing-Guangzhou Railway system. An elimination
method of abnormal value and a zero mean normalization method of track
irregularity are given and used in the data preprocessing of track irregularities on
this railway based on the change rate of track irregularity. This change rate is
calculated using the methods of linear interpolation and wavelet analysis. The PSD
of track irregularity is calculated by using the periodogram method. This paper also
suggests that the track irregularity spectrum be used as an index to control track
geometry irregularity.

DATA PRETREATMENT
In the track irregularities testing process certain trends and abnormal values
in measured track irregularities data have a strong negative influence upon data
analysis. This negative influence increases when the data is integrated. Therefore,
the premise of data analysis is to eliminate trends and abnormal values.
Eliminating abnormal value method
It is well known that when the rail has high stiffness the track irregularities
data recorded is without large changes. In fact when tested the rate of changes of
actual data is no more than 1‰. Therefore we can detect abnormal values of the rail
irregularities by the rate of change. Due to reasons of detection methods, the rate of
actual data change is usually greater than 1‰. Statistical analysis results indicate
that the rate of actual adjacent points change is less than 3‰ (Zhang et al., 2008).
This value of 3‰ can be used as the standard to judge abnormal value. In this paper,
the method is used to eliminate abnormal value of the track recording vehicles’ data.
Figure 1 is the actual application for the method. From the figure, we can clearly see
that this method can effectively eliminate abnormal values.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 724
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Figure 1. Result of eliminating abnormal value.

Removing trend method
As mentioned above, there is always a trend in measured track irregularities
data. It makes the data mean nonzero and nonstationary. In this paper, Wavelet
theory is used to eliminate the trend.
Here, a brief review from the theory of wavelets is described that gives a
basic idea about the wavelets. Wavelet transform is divided into two parts:
continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) (Rao et
al., 2004), (Daubechies et al., 1992), (Burrus et al., 1992). Historically the CWT was
the first wavelet transform to be studied.
Let f (t ) be any square integrate able function. The signal or function f (t ) can
be expressed as (1):
t −b
f (t ) = ∫∫W (a, b)ψ ( )dbda (1)
a
W (a, b) is continuous wavelet transform of f (t ) with respect to a wavelet
function ψ (t ) and is defined as

W (a, b) = ∫ f (t )ψ a∗,b (t )dt (2)

1 t −b
Where ψ a ,b (t ) = ψ( ) (3)
a a

ψ (t ) is the mother wavelet, ' a' is the scaling factor, 'b' is the shifting
parameter and ∗ denotes complex conjugation. The family of functions can be
obtained by scaling and shifting ofψ (t ) . The mother wavelet has the property that

the set [ψ a ,b (t )] a ,b∈Z forms an orthogonal basis in L2 ( R ) . This implies that the mother

wavelet can, in turn, generate any function in L2 ( R) . The mother wavelet has to

satisfy the following admissibility condition:

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 725
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Ψ (ω )
2
∞
Cψ = ∫ dω < ∞ (4)
−∞ ω
where Ψ (ω ) is the Fourier transform of ψ (ω ) .
In practiceψ (ω ) will have sufficient decay, so that the admissibility condition
reduces to

∫ψ (t )dt = Ψ(0) = 0 (5)

The CWT has the drawbacks of redundancy and impracticability with digital

computers. As the parameters a and b are the continuous values, the resulting CWT is
a redundant and impractical representation. This impracticability is the result of the
redundancy. Therefore, the scale and shift parameters are evaluated on a discrete
time-scale grid leading to a discrete set of continuous basis functions. The
continuous inverse wavelet transform (1) is discretized as
t − bi
f (t ) = ∑ Wi ai−1 / 2ψ ( ) (6)
ai

While analyzing the discrete time signals, it is convenient to take the integer

values for ' a ' and 'b' in defining this basis: if a = 2 j and b = n ⋅ 2 j (where j and n are
integers) then, via translations and dilations:
⎧ − j / 2 t − n2 j ⎫
{ψ j ,n (t )} j , n∈Z
= ⎨2 ψ ( )⎬ (7)
⎩ 2j ⎭

Eq. (7) forms a sparse orthonormal basis of L2 ( R ) . This means that the

wavelet basis induces an orthogonal decomposition of any function in L2 ( R) .

The concrete method in this paper can be stated as follows: determination of

the decomposition level, set the last layer’s approximation coefficients to zeros and
other layers’ approximation coefficients unchanged, reconstruct signal. Taking the
case of measured track irregularities data, the sample interval of track geometry
inspection car is 0.25m. In order to filter low frequency wave whose wavelength is
greater than 120m, the optimal wavelet decomposition is 8 levels. Figure 2 is the
actual effect of the method. From the figure, we can clearly see that this method can
effectively eliminate trend.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 726
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

(a) Curve before eliminating trend

(b) Curve after eliminating trend

Figure 2. Result of eliminating trend.

POWER SPECTRUM OF TRACK IRREGULARITIES ANALYSIS

Power spectrum of track irregularities can be expressed as a picture whose
horizontal coordinates is spatial frequency or wavelength and vertical coordinates is
power density spectrum (PSD). It can clearly shows wavelength properties of the
track irregularity wave. From the power spectral density curves, we can also see the
track irregularity information such as amplitude and wavelength. It can be used to
determine the track quality through comparing the position of curves. The lower
curve position indicates the better track quality.
The PSD of track irregularities which are collected by track recording
vehicles are calculated by using the periodogram method. Because the actual PSD of
track irregularities is not a smooth curve, we need to conclude the fit power
spectrum that convenient to use. Through the comparison between fit power
spectrum and standard spectrums, it indicates the situation of track irregularities. In
this paper, the fitting method is parallel tangent method (Yang et al., 2006). The
vertical profile and alignment irregularities are the most important factors which
concern the vehicle travel safety, riding quality and comfortableness. Therefore, this
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 727
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

article may mainly study on them. Presented in Figures.3–4 are the PSD of track
irregularities and fit power spectrum of vertical profile and alignment irregularities,
respectively.

10000
original power spectrum
fit power spectrum
1000
the sixth grade of U.S
100
PSD(mm ·m)

10
2

0.1

0.01

0.001

0.0001
1000 100 10 1 0.1
-1
spatial frequency(m )

Figure 3. PSD of track vertical profile irregularities and fit curve

10000 original power spectrum

1000 fit power spectrum
the sixth grade of U.S
100
10
PSD(mm ·m)

1
2

0.1
0.01
0.001
0.0001
0.00001
0.000001
0.0000001
1000 100 10 1 0.1

-1
spatial frequency(m )

Figure 4. PSD of track alignment irregularities and fit curve.

From Figure 3, it can be shown that the vertical profile irregularity spectrum
values are smaller than the sixth grade track irregularity PSD of U.S, which
indicates the situation of track irregularities is better than the sixth grade of U.S.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 728
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

According to the analysis of spectrum line, the vertical profile irregularities contain
many harmonic waves of different amplitude and wavelength and have wide
wavelength ranges from 0.5m to 110m. There are periodic waves in vertical profile
irregularity whose wavelength is about 2.3m, 2.8m and 5.6m, especially for 2.3m
wavelength. The cause resulting in this phenomenon is rail periodic wave in rolling
straightening process. The hump shape in curve indicates the profile irregularity
contains narrow band random waves whose amplitudes change irregular and wave
band varies very little.
Figure 4 shows that the alignment irregularity is better than the sixth grade
track irregularity PSD of U.S in long wavelength range. It contains periodic waves
whose wavelength is about 0.7m, 1.5m, 2m and 5m. The wide wavelength also
ranges from 0.5m to 110m. By comparing and analyzing two figures, there
obviously exist 25m periodic waves; this irregularity wavelength is relative to rail
welding quality.
10000
Jan.
1000 Feb.
Mar.
100
Apr.
10 May.
Jun.
PSD(mm ·m)

1 Jul.
2

Aug.
0.1
Sept.
0.01 Oct.
Nov.
0.001
Dec.
the sixth grade of U.S
0.0001

0.00001
1000 100 10 1 0.1
-1
spatial frequency(m )

Figure 5. Comparison of PSD of track vertical profile irregularities.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 729
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

10000 Jan.
Feb.
1000
Mar.
100 Apr.
May.
10
Jun.
PSD(mm ·m)

1
2

Jul.
Aug.
0.1
Sep.
0.01 Oct.

0.001 Dec.
Nov.
0.0001 the sixth grade of U.S
0.00001
1000 100 10 1 0.1
-1
spatial frequency(m )

Figure 6. Comparison of PSD of track alignment irregularities.

To compare the track quality in one year, here we choose statistical samples
which are collected on the same date of every month in a year. The fit power
spectrum of vertical profile and alignment irregularities are shown in Figure 5 and
Figure 6. It can be seen that both vertical profile and alignment irregularity are
smaller than the sixth grade track irregularity PSD of U.S in a year, indicating that
the track quality remains in good condition. The months can be divided into three
categories: good, average, and bad condition according to the position of the curve.
The lower position indicates the better track quality. The good months are January,
February, and April. The average months are March, May, June, and December. The
bad months are July, August, September, October, and November. The worst month
of the track quality is August and the best is February.

CONCLUSIONS
Track irregularity spectrum is an effective way to control track irregularity.
In China this aspect is still in the initial stages, track irregularity spectrum is not as
evaluation indexes to manage track quality. Track irregularity spectrum can improve
the whole track quality, therefore, the track irregularity spectrum should be
suggested as an index to control track geometry irregularity.
From this study, a number of conclusions can be drawn. They are as follows:
(1) Track irregularity spectrum values of Beijing-Guangzhou Railway are
smaller than the sixth grade track irregularity PSD of U.S. It indicates the track
quality keeps in good repair.
(2) The vertical profile and alignment irregularities contain a number of
different amplitude and wavelength of the harmonic part. A wide wavelength ranges
from 0.5m to 110m. Both of them contain periodic waves.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 730
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

(3) Comparing the 12-month track spectrum, it can be found that the track
quality of the worst month is August and the best is February.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The research of this project is partly supported by grant 50878158 from the
Natural Science Foundation of China. This support is gratefully acknowledged.
The authors would also like to appreciate engineers at the related
departments of the project for their assistance during the field measurement of the
test.

REFERENCES
Burrus, C. S., Gopinath, R. A., and Guo, H. (1997). Introduction to Wavelets and
Wavelet Transforms, Prentice Hall, London.
Daubechies, I. (1992). Ten Lecture on Wavelets, CBMS Series, Philadelphia.
Iyengar, R. N and Jaiswal, O. R. (1995). “Random field modeling of railway track
irregularities.” Journal of Transportation Engineering, 221(4), 303-308.
Rao, R. M. and Bopardikar, A. S. (2004). Wavelet Transform: Introduction to Theory
and Applications, Pearson Education, London.
Sadeghi, J., Fathali, M., and Boloukian, N. (2009). “Development of new track
geometry assessment technique incorporating rail cant factor.” Proc.
IMechE, Part F: J.Rail and Rapid Transit, 223(F3), 255–263.
Yang, W. Z., Lian, S. L., and Liu, Y. (2006). “Power Spectrum Fit Analysis for
Rai1way Track IrreguIarities.” Journal of Tongji University, 34(3), 363-
367.
Zhang, S. G., Kang, X., and Liu X B. (2008). “Characteristic Analysis of the Power
Spectral Density (PSD) of Track Irregularity on Beijing-Tianjin Inter-City
Railway.” China Railway Science, 29 (5), 25-30.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 731
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Cause and Modification Measures of Longitudinal Cracks from Bolt Hole

of the PC Sleepers II
Chao MA and Xiangguo LI2 and Jinging BU3
1

1
Civil Engineering school, Shijiazhuang Railway Institute, Shijiazhuang,
Bei’er’huan East Road 17; PH (0311)87935555; email: mach_74@163.com
2
Civil Engineering school, Shijiazhuang Railway Institute, Shijiazhuang,
Bei’er’huan East Road 17; PH (0311)87935555; email: lixg@sjzri.edu.cn
3
Civil Engineering school, Shijiazhuang Railway Institute, Shijiazhuang,
Bei’er’huan East Road 17; PH (0311)87935555; email: bujq@sjzri.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Sleepers, a main element of the railway track, which bear the load
transmitted by rail and ensure the track’s geometry and integrity, have a great impact
on the smooth and safe passage of the vehicle. In recent years, the continuous
increase in speed and loading have caused rising damages of PC sleepers. In
particular, the longitudinal crack originating from the bolt-hole of PC sleeper II is
the most serious one and has influenced the stability and safety of the track to a great
extent.. This paper analyzes the cause of longitudinal cracks originating from the
sleeper’s bolt-hole and puts forward measures for modification with regard to
special concrete in the area around the bolt-hole.

INTRODUCTION
A Longitudinal crack originating from the bolt-hole refers to the crack that
originates from the edge of the PC sleeper’s bolt hole and extends along the
longitudinal center line of the sleeper. In recent years, due to an increase in the
vehicle’s speed and loading, more damages have been occuring in the PC sleepers II
of existing railways. Among these damages, the longitudinal crack from the bolt
hole is the main factor impairing the safety of railways and this prevents a further
increase of the vehicle’s speed.
The research on longitudinal cracks originating from the bolt-hole may be
traced back to 1980s. In 1985, in his MS degree thesis, Lin Wang put forward that
these cracks are caused by the high tensile stress around the bolt hole since it is
greater than the tensile strength of the concrete (Lin Wang, 1985). He recommended
that the shape of the bolt hole should be changed. However, this recommendation
was not adopted by the manufacturer. Then, in the middle of 1990s, further research
was conducted by engineers from the operation companies and the manufacturing
companies. Most of their researche focused on the manufacturing technology,
operational conditions, and maintenance. Later, in 1994, Jiawei Wang pointed out
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 732
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

that good controls on steam curing and alkali-aggregate reaction during the
manufacturing of the sleeper are the keys to prevent longitudinal cracks (Jiawei
Wang, 1994).
According to the aforementioned research, some prevention measures both
from manufacturing technology and maintenance have been made. However, very
few changes have been made to design such as the structure and the material of the
sleeper. The problem has not been addressed and has become even more serious
since the improvement in design has not matched the increase in the train’s speed
and loading in recent years. This paper mainly focuses on the stress analysis around
the bolt hole with a more advanced and detailed model than that of Lin Wang, and
attempts to find the cause for longitudinal cracks based on current load and speed.
This research also considers improving the mechanical characters around the bolt
hole without changing the sleeper’s shape and structure as a preventive measure. If
this is done, the new sleepers may be used on the line easily and economically
without changing the existing fastener system or even the maintenance method.

STRESS ANALYSIS OF THE AREA AROUND BOLT HOLE

When the stress around the bolt hole area is calculated, both the horizontal
load applied by the pre-stressed steel bar and the vertical load or the uplift exerted
by the sulfur-fixed spike when the train passes should be taken into consideration.

STRESS OF THE BOLT-HOLE-AREA APPLIED BY THE PRESTRESS

According to the elastic mechanic, applied by the prestress p, stress-
concentration occurs around the bolt hole and the maximum compression stress and
tensile stress should occur along the y-axis and x-axis respectively with their
maximum values of 3p and –p as shown in Figure 1 (Quanyi Xie, 1988). By
replacing p with the actual pre-stress value of PC J-2 (the tensile force is 330kN)
(Mingchu Yao,1984), we can get:
σlmax= -p=7.05N/mm2 (1)
2
σamax= 3p=-21.15 N/mm (2)
Where:
σlmax------the maximum tensile stress along x axis;
σamax------the maximum compression stress along y axis;
p------the prestress of PC J-2, p=7.05 N/mm2;
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 733
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

=a

3a 6a

Figure 1. Stress distribution around bolt.

STRESS CAUSED BY THE SCREW-SPIKE’S UPLIFT WHEN TRAIN

PASSES
To prevent the screw spike from lifting when the train passes, the bolt hole is
designed as a taper in depth with a maximum diameter in the middle. So, in addition
to the pre-stress, the bolt hole suffers an uplift applied on its inner wall when the
train passes. Due to the uplift, uniform radial compression stress will occur on the
interface between the bolt-hole and the sulfur-fixed spike. According to elastic
mechanism, when the stress around the bolt-hole under the radial compression is
computed, the area around bolt hole can be simplified as a thick-wall cylinder with a
inner radius of “a” (the radius of the bolt hole) and a outer radius of “b” (half-width
of the sleeper). The simplified schematic diagram and its stress distribution are
shown as Figure 2.
σθ σθ

σr
=a

Where, σr

Figure 2. Stress distribution of thick- Figure 3. Stress distribution

wall cylinder under the inner. after modification.

σ r ---- Radial stress;

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 734
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

σ θ ---- Shearing stress;

p----the radial stress (6.25MPa) caused by the maximum spike’s uplift (49kN)
when the train passes (Mingchu Yao, 1984);
a----the average inner radius (24.25mm) of the thick-wall cylinder;
b----the average outer radius (55.25mm) of the thick-wall cylinder.
From Figure 2 we can see that the shearing stress is tensile while the radial
stress is compression, and both of their maximum values occur at the inner edge of
the bolt hole as follows:
(σ r ) min = σ r r =a
= −p ⎫
⎪ (3)
pa 2
b ⎬2
(σ θ ) max = σ θ = 2 (1 + 2 ) ⎪
r =a
b − a2 a ⎭

Where:
(σ r ) min ----maximum value of radius stress;

(σ θ ) max
----maximum value of shearing stress;
By Substituting actual values for a, b, and p, we can get:
(σ r ) min = σ r r =a
= − p = −6.25 N/mm2 (4)

pa 2 b2 6.25 × 24.25 2 55.25 2

(σ θ ) max = σ θ = (1 + ) = (1 + ) = 9.23 N/mm2 (5)
r =a
b −a
2 2
a 2
55.25 − 24.25
2 2
24.25 2

STRESS IN BOLT HOLE AREA APPLIED JOINTLY BY THE PRESTRESS

AND UPLIFT
The aforementioned analysis indicates that under the joint-load applied by
the pre-stress and spike’s uplift, both the maximum tensile stress and compression
stress occur on the edge of the bolt hole (either on the interface with the longitudinal
central axis or on the interface with the transverse center line). The maximum tensile
stress, at an upright angle with the longitudinal axis, is 16.28N/mm2 (the sum of
σlmax and (σ θ ) max ).The maximum compression stress, paralleling with the

longitudinal axis, is 21.15N/mm2 (equal to σamax). Obviously, the maximum tensile

stress is far beyond the concrete’s limit tensile strength 3.3N/mm2 (China
Construction Ministry, 1980) and the maximum compression stress is much lower
than the concrete’s limit compression strength of 40N/mm2 (China Construction
Ministry, 1980).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 735
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

CAUSE FOR THE LONGITUDINAL CRACKS ORIGINATING FROM

BOLT HOLE AND MODIFICATION MEASURES
The above-mentioned analysis indicates that the maximum shearing tensile
stress is far beyond the concrete’s tensile strength while the maximum compression
stress is less than the concrete’s compression strength. So it is the high tensile stress,
rather than the compression stress, that accounts for the damage of longitudinal
cracks from the bolt hole. Therefore, micro-cracks might occur even before the
sleeper is mounted on the track owing to the higher shearing tensile stress caused by
pre-stress rather than the concrete’s tensile strength. So the best way to solve this
problem is to decrease the shearing tensile stress by redistributing the stress in the
area around the bolt hole. According to the elastic mechanism, if the inner part of the
area around the bolt hole is made of special expansion concrete while its outer part
remains common concrete, radial nested stress will occur on the interface between
the two parts for the expansion of the inner part (Zhongwei Wu,1990). Then the
shearing tensile stress of the inner part will decrease and this is shown in Figure 3.

STRESS IN THE AREA AROUND BOLT HOLE AFTER MODIFICATION

In order to find the optimum solution, we compare the following designs
with different thickness of inner part special concrete (15mm, 30mm, 50mm) and
nested stress (2.0Mpa, 3.0Mpa, and 4.0Mpa) (Zhongwei Wu,1990). The detailed
designs and the results are shown in Table 1 (Chao Ma, 2001).
Table 1. Shearing stress(σy) along the longitudinal centerline on the sleeper’s
surface prior to and after modification（mm,MPa）.
σy after modification
σy prior to
D modification c=15 c=30 c=50
p=2.0 p=3.0 p=4.0 p=2.0 p=3.0 p=3.0
0 22.12 16.718 14.017 11.320 18.025 15.978 16.512
5 13.5 9.135 6.953 4.771 10.132 8.449 8.894
15 6.649 6.688 6.707 6.727 3.998 2.673 2.889
30 3.143 4.967 5.879 6.791 5.252 6.306 -0.014
50 1.179 2.033 2.460 2.887 3.222 4.243 7.634
84.5 -0.2629 -0.270 -0.274 -0.277 -0.297 -0.315 -0.492

T
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 736
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Note: d stands for the space from each calculated point to the edge of the
bole hole; c stands for the thickness of the inner part special concrete, p stands for
the nested stress produced by the special concrete.

The data in Table 1 shows that with the same thickness of inner part concrete,
the larger the nested stress produced by the special concrete, the more the decrease
in tensile stress for the inner part and the more the increase in compression stress for
the outer part. And with the same nested stress, the thinner the inner part special
concrete, the larger the decrease of the stress in its high-stress area and the lower the
increase of the stress in the low-stress area. When the thickness of the inner part
special concrete is small enough, the decrease of the stress in the high-stress area
should be much larger than the increase of the stress in the low-stress area. So if the
thickness of the inner part concrete and the nested stress produced by the special
concrete can be controlled in a rational range or combination, a larger decrease will
occur in the inner part and a lesser increase in the outer part. We can then take full
advantage of the concrete in different parts around the bolt hole within its strength
and the possibility of cracks occurring will be lowered..
When put into practice, self-producing-stress expansion concrete may be
adopted as the main element of the special concrete. The steel wire net should be set
in the interface between the special concrete and the common concrete as a hoop.
This not only affords an effective lateral restriction to the inner part special concrete
but can also make the two parts integrate with each other better. According to the
current technique of the construction of self-producing-stress expansion concrete
(Zhongwei Wu, 1990), we can select 3.0MPa as the nested stress value and select
30mm as the thickness of inner part special concrete.

CONCLUSION
In a word, high shearing tensile stress in the edge of the bolt hole is the main
cause of the longitudinal cracks in sleeper II. Modification in the area around the
bolt hole with special concrete can lower the tensile stress near the edge of the bolt
hole through redistribution of the concrete’s stress.. Though some area where the
tensile stress is higher than the concrete strength remains, there is a significant
decrease when compared to the value prior to modification. The self-producing-
stress expansion concrete itself has the function of preventing the concrete from
cracking, and along the steel wire net on the interface, controls the development of
cracks. Although these results are theoretical, they are good reference for practice.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 737
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

REFERENCES
China Construction Minstry, (1980). Standard of Concrete Strcture’s Design.
Beijing: China Arthitecture and Industry Publisher, 20.
Chao Ma. (2001). “Cause Analysis and Preventive Measure of Longitudinal Crack
from Bolt Hole of PC sleeper.” MS thesis of Shijiazhaung Railway
Institute, 14-21.
Jiawei Wang. (1994). Anylasis on PC sleeper’s longitudinal cracks. Beijing:
Symposium on PC sleeper, China Railway Ministry, 1-12
Lin Wang. (1985). “Research on stress of PC sleeper bolt-hole-area.” MS thesis of
China Academy of Railway Science.
Mingchu Yao. (1984). Design and Manufactrue of PC Sleeper II. Beijing: China
Railway Publisher, 20-30
Quanyi Xie., and Haojiang Ding. (1988). Elastic Mechanics. Zhejiang: University of
Zhejiang, 142-157
Zhongwei Wu., and Hongzhi Zhang.(1990). Expansion concrete. Beijing: China
Railway Publisher, 162-180
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 738
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Research on Traffic Organization of Freeway Off Ramp-Crossroad

Terminal

Shengxue ZHU 1,2 Jian LU 3 Haijuan ZHAO1

1
Doctoral Candidates, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing,
China, 210096; email: zhushengxue601@126.com
2
Lecturer, Faculty of Transportation Engineering, Huaiyin Institute of Technology,
Huai’an, China, 223003; email: zhushengxue601@126.com
3
Professor, Center for Transportation Research, Shanghai Jiaotong University,
Shanghai, China, 200240; email: jianjohnlu@sina.com

ABSTRACT
The types of freeway off ramp-crossroad terminals were divided based on
investigation and the features of the traffic flow of freeway off ramp-crossroad
terminals were analyzed; Based on traffic conflict technique and access
management technique, this study utilized turn lanes design, channelization design
and the traffic management and control to organize the traffic flow and improve
traffic efficiency and the safety of the off ramp-crossroad terminal.
INTRODUCTION
Freeway off ramp-crossroad terminal means intersections between the
freeway off ramp and link road and its influenced regions. Freeway off
ramp-crossroad terminal is an important part of freeway. In the limited space of
freeway off ramp-crossroad terminal, traffic flow of different orientations from on
and off-ramp and connection highway. The traffic flows run crossed, change
orientation and interrupt each other in this part, therefore the capacity of the
ramp-crossroad terminal is much smaller than that of the freeway and connection
highway. The terminal becomes a bottleneck of the freeway system and the origin
of traffic congestion, causing diffusion of the range of the traffic jam, and even
affecting the traffic on the mainline of the freeway. The traffic organization of the
freeway off ramp-crossroad terminal affects not only the safety and unblocked of
the off-ramp, but also the capacity and transportation efficiency of the whole
freeway system. Therefore, it is exigent to study the traffic organization and control
mode of the crossroad terminal, which provides the necessary support and technical
basis for improving traffic efficiency and safety.
Many studies on intersections have been done quite thoroughly at home and
abroad (Jian Lu et al., 2004), (Jian Lu et al., 2007). (Liu, P. et al., 2005). Most of
the studies concentrate on plane geometry design, traffic control, sign and marking
placement, application of access management techniques and so on. However, there
are relatively few studies on traffic safety of freeway off ramp-crossroad terminal.
Survey shows that off ramp-crossroad terminal has been a bottleneck of the traffic
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 739
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capacity and traffic safety of the off-ramp where off-ramp traffic flow spillover to
the main lines of the freeway frequently occurs. These phenomena are most serious
at suburb freeways. The performance of traffic flow organization affects not only
the safety of the off-ramp, but also the capacity and efficiency of the freeway
network.
CLASSIFICTION OF OFF RAMP-CROSSROAD TERMINAL
With the map software Google Earth, the project team observed a lot of
crossroad terminals in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou,
and Jinan. We found that a T-shape is in a bigger scale. Therefore this study chooses
T- crossroad terminal as the study object to classify.
By differences of location of off-ramp and performance characteristics of
traffic flow, T- crossroad terminal could be distributed into three types.
Direct-off crossroad terminal. This type is a node formed when directional
off-ramp (such as clover leaf interchange) Semi-directional off-ramp or combined
interchanges off-ramp cross with intersecting roads, as shown in Figure 1a. A
typical feature of this type is that the access of off-ramp on the ground locates on
the road intersecting the freeway. Part of the ramp is descent with curved way,
therefore vehicles coming out of the ramp straight turn right to intersecting road,
without diverting on the roads or turning on the ground, which has less influence on
traffic and the traffic organization is simple.
Restrictive crossroad terminal. This type is formed when part of the
alternative interchange cross with the road on the ground, such as Single Point
Interchange (SPI), diamond interchange, X-Interchange, partial Clover leaf
interchange, and circle- interchange, as shown in Figure 1b. Restricted to terrain,
land and traffic volume, turning vehicles share an off ramp to turn right or left, or to
re-divert to move straight, leading to a conflict.
Sectional crossroad terminal. The type is a node formed when an off-ramp
crosses with side roads, as shown in Figure 1c. The points connecting ramps and
ground locate on the ground road or side ground road parallel to the upper freeway.
The ramp is a linear slope way parallel to freeway. The traffic flow from the
off-ramp first interweaves with ground flow, and then diverts at intersection ahead.
It’s common in crossroad terminal through elevated road and ground road, but
uncommon on freeways.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 740
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a. Direct-off crossroad terminal b. Restrictive crossroad terminal

c. Sectional crossroad terminal

Figure l. Types of off ramp-crossroad terminal.

TRAFFIC CHARACTERISTICS OF CROSSROAD TERMINAL

Continuous traffic flow. As fully-closed with interchanges, vehicles in
freeway run smoothly, without restraint of operation conditions and interference of
traffic. Traffic flow is continuous. Therefore vehicle flow from off-ramp is
continuous, while vehicles’ arrival is random and discrete. Crossroad terminal
always has no- signal control or stop control, therefore vehicles coming from
ground road have priority and could have a high speed. Traffic characteristics of
this section may be considered as continuous.
As an important traffic exchange corridor, vehicle flow of crossroad
terminal is decided the continuity, which is the largest difference between crossroad
terminal and intersection. As a result, traffic organization of terminal should be
simple and reasonable, in order to keep smooth and steady traffic conversion.
Fast speed of vehicles. The speed of vehicles traveling on a freeway is fast.
When there is no toll station, drivers always keep high speed on ramp. When the
vehicle is down into ground road, the speed is even higher. It’s an obvious traffic
characteristic of a crossroad terminal. According to survey, for an off-ramp of
40km/h speed limit, speed at each section is high as shown in Figure 2. As shown in
Figure 3, the speed of 85% vehicles is 50km/h in section 1, 35km/h in section 2,
and 30km/h in section 3. Vehicles going ahead on ground road have no obvious
changes in speed when approaching to crossroad terminal and the speed is also high,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 741
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reaching 60km/h, as shown in Figure 4.

section4

section3 section 2 section1

ground road

off ramp

Figure 2. Sections setup.

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

? 3 ? ? ? ?@? @?1? ? ? ? @? @?2? ? ? ? @?@?3?

Figure 3. Cumulative frequencies distribution speed at crossroad terminal.

100
90
80
* 70
% 60
( 50
? 40
? 30
20
10
0
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

@ @ ) km/h*

Figure 4. Speed of vehicles on ground road.

Little acceptable gap of vehicles. Investigation shows, at crossroad

terminal, as the speed is high, traffic flow is large, and accessible gap is small, as
shown in Table 1.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 742
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Table1. Acceptable Critical Gap of Vehicles Turning to Ground Road.

Vehicle type Car Middle-sized vehicle Large vehicle Trailer
Turn right tcr
2.5 3.0 4.0 5.5
(s)
Turn left tcl (s) 3.0 4..0 5.0 6.0

IMPROVING MEASURES OF FREEWAY OFF RAMP-CROSSROAD

TERMINAL
Crossroad terminal turn lanes design. If there is enough land, when speed
is high and turning traffic volume is large, construct a special lane for turning
vehicles as a buffer to avoid traffic block in the functional area of the terminal and
improve the safety.
When there is a large left-turn-in volume and many conflicts between
left-turn and going-ahead or reverse at crossroad terminal, consider installing a left
turn lane and marking it in lines and arrows at entrance lane. Based on the
difference of usages, left-turn lane is divided into acceleration lane and deceleration
lane.

Figure 5. Left-turn decelerated Figure 6. Left-turn accelerated

lane setup. lane setup.

The composition of a section of off-ramp is different from ground road, as

well as setting style. Referring to literature at home and abroad (Lanfang Zhang et
al., 2008), (Xianghai Meng, 2006), common styles are shown in Figure 7.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 743
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a. constrict central separate belt b. broaden entrance lane

c. center line migration d. broaden right entrance lane

Figure7. Types of left-turn lane.

When road traffic volume is large, right-turn deceleration lanes and

acceleration lanes are necessary to avoid influence of vehicles turning right to go in
or out of the ramp on vehicles going ahead, as shown in Figure 8.
off ramp
off ramp

ground road ground road

Figure 8. Types of right-turn lane.

The right-turn lane is set through narrowing roadside like shoulder, and
greenbelt, as shown in Figures 8a and 8b.
Channelization design of crossroad terminal. Reasonable channelization
design of crossroad terminal is able to standardize the organization and operations
of traffic flow within crossroad terminal. This is intended to simplify the conflict
zone, reduce collision rate and severity by physical means, on the premise of
without influencing drivers’ behavior psychology. According to the open form and
improvement degree on traffic safety of central separate belt, access direction
control of traffic flow at crossroad terminal is divided into the following four types,
as shown in Figure 9, Figure 10, Figure 11, and Figure 12.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 744
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off ramp

off ramp
ground road ground road

off ramp
ground road

Figure 9. Channelization design of crossroad terminal with incorporeal central

separate belt to forbid left turn.

off ramp
off ramp

ground road ground road

Figure 10. Channelization design of crossroad terminal central separate belt

with left turn lane.
off ramp

ground road

Figure 11. Crossroad terminal direction restricts with left turn lane.
off ramp

groud road

Figure 12. Crossroad terminal central separate belt without opening.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 745
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Figure 9 is designed for a crossroad terminal, with link road of Low-Grade

or width not enough to set central separate belt and left turn traffic volume having
certain influence on going ahead volume.
Figure 10 is designed for a crossroad terminal through off-ramp with little
traffic volume and road with large traffic volume, or crossroad terminal that left
turn volume has little effect on link road.
Figure 11 is designed for a crossroad terminal that going ahead volume of
link road is large, left turn volume of off-ramp is small or severity influence of
going ahead traffic of the road, and road volume that left turn in to ramp is small.
Figure 12 is designed for a crossroad terminal through road with fast and
large traffic and off-ramp with little left turn volume.
Traffic management and control measures of freeway off ramp
crossroad terminal. At present, freeway off ramp crossroad terminal usually
adopts non-signal control, to ensure the terminal traffic safety, order and
smoothness. The management department should improve and reasonably construct
stop signs and signal control if necessary, to ensure the traffic smoothness. Traffic
sign and marking setting guide gave a clear regulation on stop sign. Crossroad
terminal with signals separates the conflicted traffic flows in time, reduces
interaction between flows, and promotes traffic safety and efficiency. However, if
not constructed properly, it will not only waste the cost of equipment and the
installation, but also will increase the delay in both off-ramp and link road. It then
affects traffic smoothness of the whole crossroad terminal, even leading to a
waiting line at off-ramp and overflow to freeway or the main road which causes
serious traffic jam or accident. Therefore, reasonable signal phase and green light
intervals are necessary to ensure that the freeway traffic safety will not be affected
by off ramp crossroad terminal, to provide maximum safety and efficiency of main
road, crossroad terminal, and link road.
CONCLUSION
Through investigation, the study divides the freeway off-ramp crossroad
terminal into different types, and analyzes the traffic flow characteristics of the
crossroad terminal, and proposes the improvement measures based on
channelization design of crossroad terminal. In order to solve the traffic
organization problem of off-ramp crossroad terminal, more research needs to be
done on traffic characteristics of off –ramp and link road, and strengthen research
on terminal geometry safety design, channelization design and traffic management
and control. In short, reasonable organization of the traffic in the highway off-ramp
is very important to the improvement of crossroad terminal safety.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This study was supported by Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province
plans to graduate research and innovation (No:CX09B_059Z) and China
Department of Transportation (No: 200831800008).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 746
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REFERENCES
Jian Lu, Li Yuan, Guoqiang Zhang, Qiaojun Xiang. (2007). “Diagnostic Approach
for Safety Performance Evaluation and Improvements of Highway
Intersection”. TRB 2007 Annual Meeting CD-ROM.
Jian Lu, Zhengyu Wang, Qiaojun Xiang. (2004). “The Influence analysis of Access
Management Technique on Traffic Safety.” Journal of Highway and
Transportation Research and Development , 22-25.
Jian Lu, Qiaojun Xiang, Guoqiang Zhang. (2007). “A study on traffic safety
technology of highway intersection ”. Southeast University.
Lanfang Zhang, Yingping Mao, Shou’en Fang. (2008). “Study on Geometric Design
of Left-Turn Lane in Grade Intersection.”Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong
university, 27(1), 49-52.
Liu, P., J. Lu, J. Fan, J. Pernia, and G. Sokolow (2005). “Effect of U-Turns on
Capacity of Signalized Intersections”, Journal of the Transportation
Research Board, 74-80.
Xianghai Meng. (2006). “Freeway Plan and Design management.” Harbin Institute
of Technology Press.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 747
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A Study of Design on Precision Parking Guidance and Information System

Guozhong YAO1, Jianqun WANG1, Xuejun RAN1, Zhenshan LI1

1
School of Mechanic&Vehicle, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing(100081),
China; email: zhongyaoguo@163.com

ABSTRACT
In this paper, we present an overall scheme on the precision parking guidance
and information system (PPGIS) as a resolution to help the driver find available
parking space quickly in a large parking lot. The basic framework hierarchy of the
network and other necessary parts of PPGIS are deeply explored. Emphasis is
placed on the principles of parking guidance logic; (PGL) while its design method is
systematically summed. Furthermore, the development and implementation of the
hardware and software of PPGIS is conducted. Finally, PPGIS is installed in the
Beijing Cuiwei Shopping Mall. The experiment results will verify the feasibility and
high efficiency.
1 INTRODUCTION
At present, in order to solve the difficult problems of city parking, many
cities have built numerous large parking lots which play a vital role to alleviate the
difficulties caused by parking problems. However, due to the lack of effective
parking guidance and information systems, the drivers may not know whether there
are available parking spaces before reaching the parking lot, blindly driving into the
lot. Additionally, the drivers in the parking lot can only get simple information about
driving direction, but do not know whether there are available spaces in the forward
direction. This often leads to the drivers being confused. They wander or stop their
car in the passage, or even drive around aimlessly in order to find an available
parking space. These actions often result in confusion, congestion within the parking
lot, additional fuel consumption, and low efficiency issues. This paper shows
in-depth studies on this issue and puts forward an effective solution to the problem as
a general program – precision parking guidance and information guidance system
(PPIGS).
On research of the parking and information guidance system; (PGIS)(Akihito
Sakai, et, 1995) Japan, South Korea, and other European countries are in the
forefront, while China remains behind. Japan and South Korea's research have
focused on urban PGIS, while research on the systematic study of PGIS about single
parking lots is lacking. This paper is mainly focused on the systematic study of
parking lots, and a general design method with strong implementation. According to
the PPGIS, we can accurately find available spaces, so we will call it the precision
parking guidance and information guidance system (short for PPIGS).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 748
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The basic idea of this system design is as follows: 1) Area division.

According to the passages forward, the car park is divided into different areas; 2)
Detection and aggregation. Using ultrasonic vehicle detectors to check whether there
are cars occupying a parking space, the area controllers aggregate the parking
information of all areas; 3) Information release. The central control room will release
real-time parking information of all regions according to the given guiding logic to
the appropriate guidance screen and berth map screen for query and management.
The total remainder of parking spaces available is sent to the outer display screen for
the drivers who are searching for parking lots to use.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows: section 2 describes the
composition of PPIGS and plate recognition. The research and design of guide logic
is discussed in section 3. Section 4 introduces the implementation of system
hardware and software. Finally, an application of the PPGIS is to verify the system
reasonability.
2 RELATED WORK
According to the differences in car parks, PGIS has different design
requirements, as well as different electronic technologies. The design of PPGIS
varies widely, but the majority of the public car parks are similar. These basic
compositions of the system remain the same: access control system, image
acquisition and recognition system, information collection system, information
release system, and parking toll system.
2.1 Composition of ppgis
Intelligent PGIS is an important component of the Intelligent Transportation
Systems (ITS) that has been developed for many years. Its main function is to
provide parking information to the driver, so that the driver finds vacant parking
spaces easily and reduces the wandering time and the time of searching for parking
spaces in car parks. Meanwhile, it provides the managers with the current occupancy
rate of parking spaces.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 749
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Figure 1. Framework of the PPGIS.

In the PPIGS, an ultrasonic detector and an LED (light-emitting diodes) light
(guidance light) are installed on the ceiling in the middle of each parking space and
in the front of the space, respectively (Anton Satria Prabuwono, 2008). The
ultrasonic detector is used to determine whether the space is occupied, by comparing
the distance of echo and its pre-set distance. The LED light is used to indicate
whether the space is occupied by its color; green color indicates that the space is
vacant, while the red indicates the space is occupied. Through the guide light, the
drivers can quickly and accurately find available spaces. The data of vehicle
detectors is directly sent to the area controller, which gathers the space information
in the range of its control, and then is sent to the upper controller. The architecture of
PPGIS is shown in Figure 1.
2.2 Image Acquisition and Recognition System
A camera is installed at the entrance of the parking lot to capture an image
of the vehicle plate as it enters. Through the image recognition system, the plate
number and the entering time are obtained, and stored into the database in the center
control room. When the vehicle exits the parking lot, the camera posted at the exit
will capture another image of the vehicle. The leaving time, plate number, and the
processed image are also obtained and stored. Comparing the leaving time and the
entering time, the parking time and the parking charge are calculated.
At the entrance, an inductive-loop is installed to detect the emergence of a
vehicle. When a vehicle emerges over or passes the inductive-loop, it will produce a
signal to trigger the camera take pictures at the same time. At the exit, the action is
very similar as the entrance, as Shown in Figure 2.
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Figure 2. System of the image capture and recognition /control at the entrance
/exit of parking lot.
3 RESEARCHES ON PARKING GUIDANCE LOGIC
Parking guidance logic (PGL) is the study of how to effectively organize the
parking areas, passages and space information, and to make the design of PGIS to be
in line with people’s habits. It not only plays a vital role in the design of PGIS, but it
also provides the driver with intuitive, accurate parking information and area
information. The quality of PGL directly determines the performance of PPGIS and
its roles.
To design PGL, we need to know the basic situations of the car park,
including: passage numbers, number of the entrances and exits, the number of spaces
that each passage can reach, and the overlapping spaces between areas. The general
design approach of PGL: 1) map out the distribution of parking spaces and passages
in the car park; 2) The spaces that a passage forward can reach is divided into an area,
if the passage is too long and contains too many spaces, the area can be subdivided
into smaller areas according to the passage forward direction; 3)the spaces on both
sides of a passage are divided into two different sets in an area; 4) Lastly,
construction of a corresponding database to reflect the structure of PGL is performed.
Take the PPGIS in Beijing Cuiwei Shopping mall for an example to illustrate the
design of PGL; the plane map of the parking lot is shown in Figure 3. Guidance
screen (GS) 1's detail is shown in figure 4. Guidance screen 1 is installed near the
entrance of the parking lot, which is responsible for releasing the available spaces.
The up arrow and the number 30 at the left, show that there are 30 spaces available
going straight, while the right arrow and the number 40 show that there are 40 spaces
available turning right. According to the upper analysis, we can construct the
corresponding database table to reflect the parking guidance logic, as shown in Table
1. The spaces belonged to left or right set (total left/right available spaces) is declared
in another table in database.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 751
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Figure 3. The PGL map of Beijing Cuiwei Shopping mall.

Figure 4. The design of guidance screen(guidance screen 1).

Where in table 1:
← left arrow shows turning left,
→ right arrow shows turning right,
↑ up arrow shows going straight,
Other columns of the table are not related here.
Table 1. The database structure of the parking guidance logic.
GS CorX CorY Area Right Right Left Left Left Right
No Offset Available Offset Available Dir Dir
1# 350 50 B2 0 40 0 30 ↑ →
2# 260 50 B2 0 25 0 25 ↑ →
3# 235 195 B2 0 10 0 10 ↑ →
3# 240 525 B2 0 10 0 10 ← →
4 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SYSTEM
In the second part of this paper, a framework of PPGIS has been given, as
shown in figure 1. In this part, we will focus on how to implement the entire system
functions.
4.1 Network hierarchy of the System
The direction and level of data transmission determines the network structure
and number of layers, as well as the basic functions of each layer should achieve.
The network hierarchy of PPGIS is shown in figure 5.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 752
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Figure 5. The network hierarchy of the PPGIS.

The space information is obtained by the Ultrasonic vehicle detector, and
then the information is sent to the corresponding area controller. Each area controller
sorts out the space information under its control, and uploads the data to a higher
level controller (upper controllers). If only two layers in the network, the upper
controller is called the layer controller. If necessary, the layer controller can continue
to upload the data to a higher level controller located in the center control room. The
data flow direction of the information displaying in the guidance screen is against the
space sampling information, which flows from the top level of the network to the
display terminals such as the berth map screen, the outer screen, and the guidance
screen. Additionally, the Control Area Network (CAN) protocol is a field-bus which
fulfills the communication requirements of many distributed embedded systems.
CAN bus can provide a high level of reliability and good real-time performance with
low cost (Manuel Barranco, 2004). Therefore, CAN is selected to construct the
network.
4.2 System Hardware
As shown in figure 5, the PPIGS system is a CAN-based structure, including
the ultrasonic vehicle detection sub-system (VDS) and management sub-system
(including information release sub-system (IRS)). The CAN-based VDS is designed
to detect the occupancy of a parking space and report the results to the area controller.
The management sub-system gathers the parking availability information and guides
the drivers through variable message signs (VMS) (Seong-eun Yoo,et,2008).
The VDS consists of a parking light, an ultrasonic vehicle detector, an area
controller, and a center controller. The management sub-system includes VMS such
as the parking guidance screen, the space map screen and the outer display screen.
The following are shown in Figure 6 and Figure 7 respectively.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 753
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Figure 6. Some hardware parts of the PGIS.

1) VDS Node
The ultrasonic vehicle detector is used to detect a vehicle presence and report
the occupancy to the area controller. While the vehicle leaves the space, the detector
will report the event to the area controller and refresh the information. The ultrasonic
detector works based on measuring the distance between detector and the ground, if
the distance is in the range of preset "Occupied "the indicator light will turn red,
conversely, if the distance is in the range of preset "Vacant", the indicator light will
keep green.
The area controller and the upper controller are discussed in section 3. Their
functions are gathering the CAN frame, and receive or transmit the data to the
destination.
2) Management Sub-system
The information from the VDS will be stored in a database in the center
control room, and the computer will refresh the information on the VMS at a set
interval. All the VMS are used to release the space information at different levels and
will guide the drivers to find available spaces. The outer display screen will release
the total space information in the parking lot and other accessory information. The
guidance screen is used to display spaces available in a given area and directly guide
driver to a vacant space. The berth map screen intuitively shows whether each space
is occupied or not, and provides an overview of the current occupancy for the
manager or driver.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 754
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Figure 7. The hardware of the information release in parking lot.

5 EXPERIMENTS AND EFFICIENCY
The PPGIS is installed in the underground parking lot of the Beijing Cuiwei
Shopping Mall. The experiment results have verified it’s rationality and validity,
and also shows the high efficiency.
5.1 Experiment Description
The Beijing Cuiwei Shopping Mall is located in the extension line of the
West Chang'an Avenue, Gongzhucun, Beijing city. It is an important transport hub
and has great effects on the municipal traffic smoothness. In the region, there are
several large underground parking lots and a few on-street surface parking, but the
parking demand is far greater from the current supply. The parking problem often
causes serious traffic congestion and other economic and social losses. The
experiment parking lot is divided into two underground floors with only one entrance
and one exit. There are 109 parking spaces on the 1st floor and 205 spaces in the 2nd,
as shown in Figure 8.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 755
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Figure 8. The underground parking map of Beijng Cuiwei Shopping mall

5.2 Benefit Analysis
Before installation of the system, in order to guide parking and transmit the
available space information, it needs 20 or more employees with walkie-talkies. The
information cannot intuitively guide the driver to the vacant spot quickly, which
often leads to confusion within the car park, and low parking efficiency. The total
wages expenditure of labor in one year is almost ¥400,000. After installation of the
system, the car park no longer needs human guidance; the driver can find the vacant
spaces quickly, and only 3-5 employees are needed. The cost of PPGIS is about
¥600,000, which can be recovered in more than one year. At the same time,
management is easy and confusion disappears. The driver can directly obtain the
remainder through the outdoor screen and make a choice whether to enter the parking
lot. Therefore, the system can produce exceptional social benefits.
6 CONCLUSION
Through the analysis of the difficulties about internal guidance and
management in parking lots, the basic framework of PPIGS is put forward, and then
its design and implementation is summarized. Next, lots of work on PGL, network
hierarchy and hardware is done, and the design methods and the implementation
procedures of them were concluded. Furthermore, the experiment results verify that
the PPGIS is effective in resolving the parking difficulty within parking lots.
REFERENCES
International Conference on Computer and Electrical Engineering (ICCEE).(2008). A
Study of Car Park Control System Using Optical Character Recognition.
Anton Satria Prabuwono, Ariff Idris.
Manuel Barranco, Guillermo Rodriguez-Navas and Julian Proenza.(2004).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 756
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

“CANcentrate: An active star topology for CAN networks.” IEEE. 2004.

Seong-eun Yoo, Poh Kit Chong, Taehong Kim,etc. (2008). “PGS: Parking Guidance
System based on Wireless Sensor Network.” ISWPC.2008.
Vehicle Navigation and Information Systems Conference(VNIS).(1995). Parking
Guidance and Information Systems. Akihito Sakai, Kozi Mizuno, etc.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 757
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Study of Analysis of Traffic Accidents and Driving Safety at Junction Sections of

Bridge and Tunnel on Expressways in Mountainous Areas

Jianyou ZHAO1 and Yanni SHI1 and Chang LIU1and Cao HE2

1
Automobile Institute of Chang’an University, P.O. Box 567, Xi’an, Shanxi, 710064;
PH: (029) 82334069; FAX: (029) 82334137; email: jyzhao@chd.edu.cn
2
Sichuan college key laboratory of road traffic safety, Si Chuan Communication
Vocational Technology College, Wenjiang District, Liu Tai Road, No. 208,
Chengdu, Cichuan, 611130; PH: (028) 82334069; FAX: (028) 82680843; email:
hcsiu_999@163.com

ABSTRACT
The junction sections of bridges and tunnels can shorten the mileage of
mountainous area freeways and improve the accessibility greatly, but it also causes
serious accidents easier. This paper using the example of Xi-Han expressway,
analyzes the causes and characteristics of traffic accidenst in the junction sections of
bridges and tunnels byusing experiments to measure the speed of the vehicles
coming in and out of the tunnel, the illumination intensity inside and outside the
tunnel and the surface adhesion coefficient. It applies software to obtain the limiting
scope and calculates the safe following distance when vehicles enter and exit the
tunnel in order to supply reference dates for drivers to improve the safety, and
suggest that designers lower the speed of the junction section of bridge and tunnel in
mountain expressway.

INTRODUCTION
Mountains area expressways are built as tunnels and bridges to protect
environments and shorten the mileage. But, at the same time, tunnels easily cause
many negative impacts such as accidents, especially in the junction sections of
bridges and tunnels wherethere is the transition section of two different road
environments. The environment changes suddenly inside and outside of the tunnel
which affects drivers psychological, and it maybe causes drivers make mistakes.
Besides that, the physiological characteristic limits would also influence the driver.
The errors and the vehicles status change can cause the traffic accidents.
Due to those concerns, this paper researched the road section from the No.1
Qinling Tunnel to Zhifang Tunnel which is part of the Xi-Han expressway. This
road’s bridge and tunnel portion surpasses 50%. Here it analyzes accidents in the
junction sections of bridge and tunnel. We also use experiments to determine the
dangerous road sections and propose improvement measures.
The Xi-Han expressway goes through many areas, such as Guanzhong basin,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 758
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Qinling mountains areas, Hanzhong basin and Bashan hills. Its characteristics are the
elevation variance is big, the terrain and the geological conditions are complex, and
the bridges and tunnels portions are big. There are 676 bridges and tunnels, including
12 super long tunnels and 14 long tunnels. The section of the Xi-Han expressway,
between the entrance of the NO.3 Qinling Tunnel (K76+660) and the exit of the
NO.1 Qinling Tunnel (K58+715), the elevation difference is nearly 200m and the
natural profile grade is 2.58%. About 3/5 traffic accidents occur in the junction
section of bridge and tunnel. It is necessary to analyze the accidents to propose the
effective improvement measures that ensurethe freeways are safer.

ACCIDENTS ANALYSIS
The Pattern of Accidents: For each of the special environments and driving
conditions, accidents are different. Three significant features are as follows:
Rear end crashes: The accidents that happen in the junction sections of
bridges and tunnels are rear end crashes. It takes up about half the total. The main
reason is that there is not enough distance from the following vehicle. When the first
car suddenly brakes, the following vehicle’s driver does not have time to slow down
and stop and so the accident happens. There are two forms rear end crashes; into
collision and out collision.
Side-slipping and turning accident: There are two reasons for this type. Firstly,
the environments of inside and outside the tunnel are different. The road coefficient
of adhesion is obviously different. Add to it the cross-wind in the exit of tunnel, if the
speed is high, the vehicle can side-slip or turn easier. Secondly, because of the great
change of light intensity between inside and outside the tunnel, drivers cannot easily
accurately determine the traffic information when entering and leaving the tunnel.
The driver’s emotions are nervous and so in that case, the vehicle can also side-slip
or turn easily.
Hit the tunnel wall surface or the bridge guard rail: When the vehicle hits the
tunnel wall surface, main reason why is the great change of light intensity. When
vehicles enter and leave the tunnel, the driver may be blind and makes mistakes.
Besides, the road coefficient of adhesion is different. When vehicles drive on the
road, the travel direction has an instantaneous change, so the accident occurs.
The main reason for vehicles hitting the bridge guard rail is the geography
environments. There is too many downhill grades. The vehicles need to brake
continuously which causes the brake potency reduce or even expire. If there is the
junction section of tunnel and bridge, it is evenceasier to hit the bridge guard rail.
Distribution Analysis: Based on the statistical analysis of traffic accidents in
Xi-Han expressway past two years, the distribution of time or vehicle are as follows:
The day: For the date statistics, the average times of each section were
obtained, as seen in Figure 1.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 759
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Figure 1. Accidents Scattered by Time (2008).

From the diagram, there are three peaks that occur with the accidents in one
day, from 5 o’clock to 6 o’clock, 11 o’clock to 12 o’clock, and 17 o’clock to 18
o’clock. Also, the accidents occur more then than during the night. The main reason
is that the drivers are too tired from the long travel in the morning and evening. Add
to the change in light intensity, then the accident probably occur. At noon, drivers
also easy feel tired which causes accidents.
Sleet weather: The vehicles do not encounter the sleet in advance of the
tunnel. But, in wet and cold weather, the inside freezes easier which reduces the road
coefficient of adhesion. The tire easily slips which is bad for driving. According to
data, the accidents occur freely when it starts to rain. One hour later, the traffic
accidents start. After six to ten hours, the peak of accidents occurs. The number of
accidents then drops gradually until 16 hours later.
The summer and winter: According to related data, many accidents happen in
the summer and winter. In winter, the main displays of road surface ice are serious in
the Qingling mountainous area. The bridge deck freezing especially is not easy to
eliminate. In the summer, it is too many rains. The road surface is wet and it lowers
the road coefficient of adhesion when compared with the dry road surface. This
makes it easy for the tire slip. According to the road section from Zhifang
Tunnel(K44+397) to Qingling NO.3 Tunnel（K71+660） traffic statistical data (2008)
in the Xi-Han expressway, the traffic accidents are distributed in various months,
as seen in Figure 2.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 760
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Figure 2. Accidents Scattered by Month（2008）.

Large trucks: Many types of vehicles can drive on the freeway. The type
determines the vehicle performance and operating characteristics and different kinds
of vehicles have different accident rates. Through the research of traffic accidents on
the Xi-Han expressway, large trucks have about 83 percent more accidents.

SAFE SPEED AND SAFE FOLLOWING DISTANCE

The main reason has two parts for the cause of accidents from the analysis of
the junction sections of bridges and tunnels accidents in the Xi-Han expressway. One
side, the following distance in not enough because the speed and light intensity are
not coordinated. The other side, the road coefficient of adhesion changes and the
travel conditions go bad. It is important to determine a good vehicle distance to
safely drive.
In order to obtain the vehicles entrance and exit speed, the road coefficient of
adhesion and light intensity, we do some experiments.
Detect the vehicle speed: To guarantee the test data is useful, through the
theory of error, the sample number of detected vehicles n
SK 2
n =（ ）
E
Here E is the vehicle speed error term (km/h) and K is the confidence level.
The large S is the estimated sample standard deviation (km/h) but it is usually
selected according to the area and the path situation.
In this experiment, the confidence level is 95.5% and the error term is 3km/h.
The number n is 32.
According to the analysis of the data by the statistical software, we get the
85% vehicle velocity and the average velocity. Table 1 is the detect data of velocity
characteristic value when various vehicles come in and out of the tunnel up and
downstream.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 761
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Table 1. The velocity characteristic value of various vehicle come in and out the
tunnel (km/h).
Car Truck Bus
85% 85%
Average Maximum Average Maximum Average 85% vehicle Maximum
vehicle vehicle
velocity velocity velocity velocity velocity velocity velocity
velocity velocity

Import 72.7 84.5 105 41.7 50.5 56 66.4 82 86.5

Up Export 76.3 91 102.5 47.1 57.5 67 68.6 84 85.5
Import 82.8 101.3 115.5 54.8 65.8 87.5 79.3 96.4 97
Down Export 74.3 91.7 112 54.5 63.2 76.7 69.6 76.8 84
According to Table 1 we may determine the range of vehicles in and out
speeds respectively which are:
Uplink: Car 50~85 km/h; Truck 30~60km/h; Bus 50~80km/h
Downlink: Car 60~80 km/h; Truck 40~60km/h; Bus 60~80km/h

The road coefficient of adhesion in the junction section of bridge and tunnel:
Three factors can influence the longitudinal attachment rate of the road, as road
surface, tire and travel operating mode. The example choice of meridian tire which
tread pattern wears approximately 1mm. It obtains a bigger ground attachment rate
compared to the brand-new tire. To guarantee the testing accuracy, the example
vehicle speeds are between 30km/h and 40 km/h. The test results are in Table 2.

Table 2. The Coefficient of Adhesion of the No.1 Qinling Tunnel in Different

Conditions.
Road section Bridge section Tunnel section
Surface
Bituminous Coagulations earth
material
Conditions Dry Wet Dry Wet
Coefficient
0.791 0.617 0.854 0.416
of adhesion

As seen in Table 2, the bituminous and the coagulations earth pavement’s

coefficient of adhesion difference are not great in the dry condition; But, the two
differences are more obvious if the road is wet.
Generally, the bridge and the junction section of the bridge and tunnel are
consistent. When the vehicle goes from the bridge to tunnel, the driver needs a
process to adapt to the dark. They always brake and reduce the speed. In the dry
condition, the road coefficient of adhesion is big. The influence is very small; But in
the wet condition, the coefficient of adhesion in the bridge and tunnel has a great
difference. In that time, it is easy for accidents to occur.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 762
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The light intensity in the import and export of tunnel: The example used the
ZDS-10 completely automatic meter to test the No.1 Qinling Tunnel’s light intensity
in the entrance and exit. It is in order to confirm the Qinling Tunnel inside and
outside degree of illumination difference. The detect position is located at the tunnel
outside 10m, the tunnel portal, in the tunnel 10m, 20m, 30m and 40m. Figure 3 and 4
is the result.

Figure 3. The NO.1 Qinling Tunnel Uplink Degree of Light Intensity.

Figure 4. The No.1 Qinling Tunnel Downlink Degree of Light Intensity.

From the figure, we know that the degree of illumination has great difference
in the tunnel import and export. The difference may result in drivers needing a long
process to adapt the dark or bright and during this time it is easy for accidents to
happen.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 763
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The count of safety following distance: The process of adapting to the dark
and bright make it so the driver can’t clearly detect the situation of the path and it is
easy to cause a rear end crash. So, a safe following distance is very important.
The safe following distance is defined as enough distance to keep the two
vehicles from a collision when they braking in a row. It contains three sections, the
perception reaction stage, the brake coordinated and brake retarded velocity growth
stage and the vehicle continually braking stage.
Hypothesis: A is the lead vehicle and B is the follow vehicle. B’s driver starts
to brake the vehicle after seeing A has braked. Until B stops, is the distance.
is the distance from when the driver starts to apply the brake and goes to the dead
stop. The desired distance for A and B is

(1)

Where l is the length plus minimum gap between two successive vehicles (m);

is the perception-reaction time (s); is the braking system transmission

sluggish time (s); is the brake retarded deceleration rate rise time (s); is B
brake initial velocity (m/s); is A brake initial velocity (m/s); is B’s

deceleration rate ( ); is A’s deceleration rate ( ); D is the desired

distance (m).
If initial velocity and deceleration rates of both vehicles are the same, the Eq.
(1) is

(2)
In ordinary circumstances, the driver’s perception-reaction time is 0.3~0.8s
and here the value is 0.6s. The hydraulic brake system transmission has a
sluggish time and is 0.15~0.2s, average value 0.175s. The barometric pressure
braking system transmission has a sluggish time and is 0.3~0.9, average value 0.6s.
The length plus minimum gap between two successive vehicles is always 5~10m,
average value 7m. Under the former scope of vehicles import and export speed case,
the calculated desired distance:
Uplink: Car 26m; Truck 27m; Bus 34m;
Downlink: Car 24m; Truck 27m; Bus 34m.
The extreme case A starts to brake when they enter the tunnel and B’s driver
starts braking after they discover that A starts to apply the brake. In that case, the
stopping distance is more than on a path, because of the process of adapting to the
dark. It is the same for the vehicle from tunnel to bridge. Generally, the process of
adapting to the dark continues for 3~10s and the process of adapting to the bright is
longer at 4~6s. Here distinct values 6s and 5s are used to obtain the distance.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 764
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Bridge to tunnel:
Uplink: Car 172m; Truck 129m; Bus 180m;
Downlink: Car 156m; Truck 129m; Bus 180m.
Tunnel to bridge:
Uplink: Car 154m; Truck 110m; Bus 144m;
Downlink: Car 134m; Truck 110m; Bus 144m.

CONCLUSION
The main pattern of mountainous area freeway accidents is rear end crash and
turning after analyzing the junction sections of bridge and tunnel accidents on the
Xi-Han expressway. The main factor to cause the accidents is that the speed is
changed too quickly and the environment of the junction section of bridge and tunnel
is very complicated. Based on the experiment, we propose various vehicle safe
driving speed ranges and calculate the safe vehicle distance. It can provide the safe
following distance for drivers and give the road design department theory basis when
they design vehicle speed on the junction section of bridge and tunnel. It is also
helpful to reduce the junction section of bridge and tunnel accidents occurring in the
mountainous area expressway.

REFERENCES
Zhang Sheng-rui, Ma Zhuang-lin, Shi Qiang. (2007). “The distribution
characteristics and countermeasures of traffic accidents in expressway
tunnel group.” Journal of Chang’an University (Natural Science Edition),
Vol.27, 1
He Cao, Zhang Xiaogui. (2008). “The analysis of accident and prevention in the
downlink of Xi-Han highway.” Highways & Automotive Applications, 3,
60-63.
Ma Yucheng, Kong Lingqi, Guo Zhongyin. (2007). “The safety operating speed and
control measure based on lighting transition to tunnel entrance.” Journal of
Shandong Jiaotong University, Vol.15,1.
He Jiaxiang, Ma Lu, Deng Weidong. (2006) “Highway tunnel traffic safety and
counter measures analysis.” Technology of Highway and Transport, 3,
130-132.
Li Kui, Jiang Wen. (2005) “Correct driving and optimization design in the tunnel
portal of highway.” Traffic and Transportation, 6, 56-57.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 765
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Research on Crossroad Access Design Technology in The Functional Area of

Urban Interchanges in China

Xi ZHUO1, Zhendong QIAN2 , Ning ZHANG3

1
ITS Research Institute of Ministry of Education, Southeast University, Nanjing, CO
210096 China; PH (86) 25-83792868; FAX (86) 25-83792868; email:
zhuoxi2008@yahoo.com.cn
2
ITS Research Institute of Ministry of Education, Southeast University, Nanjing, CO
210096 China; PH (86) 25-83792868; FAX (86) 25-83792868; email: qianzd@
seu.edu.cn
3
ITS Research Institute of Ministry of Education, Southeast University, Nanjing, CO
210096 China; PH (86) 25-83792868; FAX (86) 25-83792868; email:
ningzhang1972@yahoo.com.cn

ABSTRACT
To heighten the traffic safety level of urban interchanges' functional areas,
the crossroad access design technology was studied. According to traffic flow
features at interchange ramp terminals in China, with the use of the Hick-Hyman
Law and Fitts Law to study the distribution of driver perception-reaction and
movement time, interchange functional area range's calculation methods were
presented. Then, based on the Cowan M3 headway distribution model and gap
acceptance theory, the arriving distribution function of crossroad traffic and turning
trajectory of vehicles in the driveway were proposed to provide mathematic models
for crossroad access design factors, including driveway throat length, throat width,
curb radius and clear vision area. Finally, design models were applied to the Xin
Zhuang Interchange. With the model of the relationship between traffic stream
parameters and crash rate, the paper evaluated safety impacts of crossroad access
design using flow and speed values from Vissim. The result indicates that the
methods and models are effective for traffic safety.
INTRODUCTION
Urban interchanges could separate the traffic flow into different road spaces,
so as to reduce traffic conflicts and heighten the traffic safety level (FDOT, 2002).
In China, however, traffic congestion and safety problems of interchanges have
become more and more prominent because of the interchange's functional area.
There are many traffic phenomena occurring in this area, such as merging, diverging
and weaving, which turn it into traffic bottlenecks. As a result, the crossroad access
is not permitted in the interchange's functional area. However, due to constricted
land use and insufficient traffic supply, crossroad access is required in the area. If the
crossroad access design is still casual, the traffic in the functional area may cause
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 766
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spillback onto the ramps, even the interchange's mainline, which leads to a much
worse traffic condition. Therefore, the reasonable crossroad access design
technology in the functional area of urban interchanges could help guide the urban
traffic improvement.
China usually concentrates on the layout (Xu, 2005), alignment (Long et al.,
2006), environment (Wang et al., 2009) and landscape design (Xu, 2005) of
interchanges. More attention is paid to the coordination of interchange's design
elements, than to the effective connection between the interchange and the crossroad.
Compared with China, some developed countries have attached more importance to
the crossroad access design technology. In America, Access Management techniques
have been applied to the crossroad access design. Access management is the
systematic control of the location, spacing, design, operation of driveways, median
openings, interchanges, and street connections to a roadway (TRB, 2003). With
Access Management, methods to analyze the interchange spacing, signal control and
channelization of adjacent at-grade intersections (Zhang et al., 2007) have been
proposed. However, those methods are mostly based on the statistical analysis of
survey data and lack the deep thought into the theoretical research.
With reference to Access Management, this paper firstly analyzes traffic
characteristics of interchange's ramp terminals, then puts forward calculation
methods for an interchange's functional area, and finally comes up with design
models for crossroad access geometric factors, including driveway throat length,
throat width, curb radius and clear vision area.
TRAFFIC FEATURES OF AN INTERCHANGE'S RAMP TERMINAL
Urban interchange's ramp terminal, where the functional area lies, is
composed of three parts: the entrance or exit ramp, the adjacent at-grade intersection
and the crossroad section from the ramp to at-grade intersection, as shown in Figure
1. Traffic features of interchange's ramp terminal contain the design speed, traffic
weaving and traffic control, which are used in calculation methods and design
models proposed later in this paper.

Figure 1. Components of interchange's ramp terminal.

A. Design speed. At the interchange's exit ramp terminal, the vehicle
accelerates to leave the ramp, changes the traveling lane on the crossroad after
perceiving the vehicle headway in the adjacent lane, then waits in the queue at the
at-grade intersection approach. At the same time, at the interchange's entrance ramp
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 767
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terminal, the vehicle departs from the adjacent at-grade intersection, and completes
the lane-changing to arrive at the ramp. Consequently, the vehicle accelerates or
decelerates frequently at the ramp terminal. As a result, the speed is changing over
time. Therefore, the design speed of ramp terminal is not a fixed value. It should
adopt the average value of running speed, i.e. the 85th percentile of the distribution
of observed speed.
B. Traffic weaving. There is traffic weaving between traffic flows in
adjacent lanes on the crossroad section which is from ramp to adjacent at-grade
intersection. Vehicles travel at a high speed at the interchange's ramp terminal. So
when traffic weaving appears, the speed difference between the vehicle and the
following one would be large, which could bring about the hidden danger of rear-
end collision. Simultaneously, the scraping collision may emerge.
C. Traffic control. Traffic control of the adjacent at-grade intersection
would influence the traffic operating on the crossroad. The adjacent intersection
could take one kind of control modes, such as non-control, stop control, yield
control and signal control, which leads to different traffic flow characteristics
respectively. It results in distinctive length of intersection's functional area. Besides,
the coupling between functional areas of crossroad access and the adjacent
intersection determines traffic features of interchange's ramp terminal. Furthermore,
whether the ramp metering is utilized influences the vehicle queue at upstream or
downstream places of ramps.
INTERCHANGE'S FUNCTIONAL AREA CALCULATION METHOD
As the most dangerous area in the interchange district, the functional area is
the road section from the ramp grounding point to the point where interchange
traffic impacts disappear, including upstream functional area of entrance ramp and
downstream functional area of exit ramp, illustrated in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Interchange's functional area.

A. Upstream functional area of entrance ramp. The upstream functional
area of entrance ramp includes the following areas: transition area and deceleration
area, shown in Figure 2. The vehicle decelerates for the first time in the following
area, which is the end of traffic weaving area, causing the rear vehicle to begin
following. Transition area is the transitional place where vehicles change from the
traveling lane to the deceleration lane. Deceleration area not only provides space for
drivers to perceive the entrance ramp traffic stream and control the vehicle
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 768
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deceleration, but also accommodates a traffic queue which is waiting to enter the
ramp. So the length of upstream functional area of entrance ramp is composed of the
deceleration distance, transition distance and following distance, all of which are the
length of corresponding areas.
1) Deceleration Distance: The deceleration distance consists of the
perception-reaction distance, braking distance and queue length, as follows:
Wd = L p + Lb + Lq (1)
where Wd is the deceleration distance(m), L p is the perception-reaction distance (m),
Lb is the braking distance(m) and Lq is the queue length(m).
The perception-reaction distance is for drivers to perceive and react to the
traffic queue and ramp terminal ahead, calculated as:
Vt prt
Lp = (2)
3.6
where V is the design speed at ramp terminal(km/h) and t prt is the perception-
reaction time(s), which is the required time for drivers to judge and react to selected
objects (deceleration of vehicle ahead) in the complex traffic environment at ramp
terminal. According to the Hick-Hyman Law (Nathan et al., 1996), t prt is given by:
t prt = a + bH (3)
where a is the minimum reaction time(s), b is the empirical parameter(s), around
0.13s, and H is the information amount observed by drivers from traffic environment,
given by:
H = log 2 N (4)
where N is the number of equally probable alternatives.
From Equations 2, 3 and 4, perception-reaction distance is expressed by：
V (a + b log 2 N )
Lp = (5)
3.6
The braking distance is for vehicles to decelerate till stop, calculated as:
1
Lb = V ( MT + tbra ) (6)
2 × 3.6
where MT is the braking control time, i.e. the movement time(s), and tbra is the
actual vehicle braking time(s).
Drivers observe the queue in the deceleration lane and control the vehicle
quickly in a planned way. Therefore, the calculation of braking control time could
use the Fitts Law (Nathan et al., 1996):
2A
MT = aM + bM log 2 ( ) (7)
WM
where aM is the minimum response time(s), bM is an empirically determined
parameter(s), different for each limb, A is the amplitude of braking movement, i.e.,
the distance from starting point to end point(m), and WM is the width of braking
control device (in the direction of movement) (m).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 769
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From Equations 6 and 7, the braking distance is estimated as:

1 2A
Lb = V [aM + bM log 2 ( ) + tbra ] (8)
2 × 3.6 WM
Hence, from Equations 1, 5 and 8, the deceleration distance is obtained as:
V (a + b log 2 N ) 1 2A
Wd = + V [aM + bM log 2 ( ) + tbra ] + Lq (9)
3.6 2 × 3.6 WM
2) Transition Distance: To satisfy the lane-changing requirement, the
transition distance(m), Wt , could utilize the same calculation equation as transition
distance of at-grade intersection's right-turn bay (Zhuo, 2006), as follow:
V × Δw
Wt = (10)
3
where Δw is the lateral offset(m).
3) Following Distance: The following distance is the one from the braking
beginning point to the origin of transition area. Also, it is the length of traveling area
where the vehicle is followed by the rear one. The following distance is so short that
the front and rear vehicles should keep small speed difference to avoid accidents.
The speed difference is changing over time in the following area, so with reference
to the fundamental car following model, it is acquired as:
1 tb +T 1 t +T /2
Δv = ∫ ( ∫ Δv( x)dx)dt (11)
T tb T t −T / 2
where Δv is the average speed difference(km/h), T is the vehicle traveling time in
the following distance(s), tb is the starting time when the vehicle is followed by the
rear one(s), t is the time(s), Δv( x) is the speed difference between front and rear
vehicles(km/h), at time x (s).
Taking the vehicle deceleration and speed difference into account, the
following distance (m), W f , could be calculated as:
tb +T 1 t +T /2
W f = (Vd T − Δv × T ) / 3.6 = [Vd T − ∫
T ∫t −T /2
( Δv( x)dx)dt ] / 3.6 (12)
tb

where Vd is the crossroad design speed(km/h).

From Equations 9, 10 and 12, the length of upstream functional area of
entrance ramp (m), Fu , is given by:
Fu = Wd + Wt + W f (13)
V (a + b log 2 N ) 1 2A V × Δw tb +T 1 t +T /2
(14)
Fu = + V [aM + bM log 2 ( ) + tbra ] + Lq + + [Vd T − ∫ ( ∫ Δv( x)dx)dt ] / 3.6
3.6 2 × 3.6 WM 3 tb T t −T /2
B. Downstream functional area of exit ramp. When a severe traffic
incident happens suddenly in the downstream functional area of exit ramp, the
decision sight distance provides enough vision scope for vehicles which leave the
exit ramp to change traveling lanes, speed and direction safely, so that vehicles
could take timely measures to complete the safe driving task. Consequently, the
length of the downstream functional area of exit ramp could adopt the value of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 770
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decision sight distance, to show traffic impacts of the interchange.

The decision sight distance (m), DSD , could be given by (Gluck et al.,
1999):
DSD = 0.278V (t prt + MT ) (15)
From Equations 3, 4, 7 and 15, the length of downstream functional area of
exit ramp (m), Fd , is calculated by:
2A
Fd = DSD = 0.278V [a + b log 2 N + aM + bM log 2 ( )] (16)
WM
DESIGN MODELS OF CROSSROAD ACCESS
With the calculation method for an interchange's functional area, it is easy to
determine whether the crossroad access is in the area or not. If the crossroad access
is in the functional area, the proposed design models of crossroad access could be
used. These models calculate access geometric parameters, including driveway
throat length, throat width, curb radius and clear vision area, shown in Figure 3.
Models are on the basis of hypotheses as follows:
1) The crossroad access is non-control. 2) The traffic in the access is not
influenced by the adjacent at-grade intersection's functional area. 3) There is no
checking station in the driveway. 4) The operation law of traffic in the access is only
related to traffic stream characteristics.

Figure 3. Geometric parameters of crossroad access.

A. Model of driveway throat length. Driveway throat length should satisfy
the travel demand of traffic which comes from side land parcels, to avoid the
spillback onto the crossroad. Consequently, the model of driveway throat length
studies the crossroad traffic's arriving characteristics and accepted gaps, with the
constraint that the driveway traffic capacity meets the travel demand of land parcel.
1) Headway Distribution of Crossroad Traffic: Design speed is low at the
ramp terminal. Also, the traffic stream on the crossroad is in the pulsing condition,
due to the impacts from adjacent intersection's traffic control. There are some free
vehicles on the crossroad, which have larger time headway and are free of influence
from others. Other vehicles are traveling in a bunch, keeping the same minimum
headway(s), tm . Therefore, the Cowan M3 model (Nathan et al., 1996) is used to
analyze the arriving distribution function of crossroad traffic, given by:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 771
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⎧ p ( h ≤ t ) = 1 − α e − λ ( t − tm ) t > tm
⎨ , (17)
⎩ p(h ≤ t ) = 0 others
where p(h ≤ t ) is the arriving distribution function of crossroad traffic, h is the
time headway of upstream crossroad traffic(s), t is a certain value of h (s), α is the
proportion of free vehicles, and λ is a decay constant(s-1).
What is more, the probability density of time headway of crossroad traffic,
f (t ) , is expressed by:
⎧ f (t ) = αλ e − λ ( t −tm ) t > tm
⎨ , (18)
⎩ f (t ) = 0 others
2) Traffic Capacity of Driveway: With reference to theories of Interaction of
Two Streams and Gap Acceptance (Nathan et al., 1996), the traffic capacity of
driveway(veh/s), qm , is given by:
∞
qm = q p ∫ f (t ) ⋅ g (t )dt (19)
0

where q p is the traffic volume on the upstream crossroad of driveway(veh/s), and

g (t ) is the number of driveway vehicles which can enter the crossroad traffic stream
gap of size, t.
And,
⎧0, t < t0
⎪
g (t ) = ⎨ t − t0 (20)
⎪ t , t ≥ t0
⎩ f
tf
t 0 = tc − (21)
2
where t f is the follow-up time of driveway traffic flow(s), tc is the critical gap of
crossroad traffic(s), and t0 is the intercept of the crossroad traffic gap axis(s).
From Equations 18, 19, 20 and 21, assuming t0 > tm , the traffic capacity of
driveway is given by:
− λ ( tc − − tm ) α q p
tf

qm = e 2
(22)
λt f
3) Relationship between Driveway Throat Length and Follow-up Time:
Sufficient driveway throat length would make driveway traffic flow become steady
and keep small headway. A model describing the relationship between driveway
throat length and follow-up time of driveway traffic flow is proposed by:
−k t
L = k1e 2 f (23)
-1
where L is the driveway throat length(m), and k1 (m), k2 (s ) are parameters,
calculated by maximum likelihood estimation.
From Equations 22 and 23, we get:
ln L − ln k1
− λ ( tc + − tm ) α qp
qm = − k2 e 2 k2
(24)
λ (ln L − ln k1 )
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 772
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And traffic capacity of driveway should meet traveling demand, as follow:

qm = C0 (25)
where C0 is the traveling demand of land parcel (veh/s).
From Equations 24 and 25, the model of driveway throat length is:
ln L − ln k1
− λ ( tc + − tm ) α qp
− k2 e 2 k2
= C0 (26)
λ (ln L − ln k1 )
B. Models of driveway throat width and curb radius. The design of
driveway throat width and curb radius should be consistent with the turning and
lane-changing trajectory curve of vehicles in the driveway. On one hand, if the
throat width or curb radius is too small, traffic conflicts would happen in a very
small area, which hinders the ingress and egress of vehicles in the access, and causes
vehicles to enter into the adjacent or opposite-side lanes on the crossroad, when they
turn right from the driveway. On the other hand, if the throat width is too large, the
traffic stream would be in disorder.
Shown in Figure 4, the no. 2 vehicle in the driveway may turn left to conflict
with no. 1 vehicle on the upstream crossroad, or turn right to merge with traffic flow
on the crossroad. To propose models, it is supposed that: 1) The no. 2 vehicle is in
the outmost lane in the driveway. 2) The conflict point, A, is in the centerline of
driveway. 3) The starting position of left-turn no. 2 vehicle is not in the centerline of
driveway. 4) Vehicles in the driveway turn right in a circular path, keeping the safe
separation distance from the curb.

γ δ

Figure 4. Turning trajectory of vehicles in the driveway.

1) Model of Throat Width: As illustrated in Figure 4, to avoid the conflict
between a left-turn vehicle in the driveway and the one on the upstream crossroad,
the time for the left-turn vehicle to pass the conflict point from the driveway should
conform to the crossroad traffic critical gap, tc , as follows:
AC
3.6 = tc (27)
V2
where A is the traffic conflict point between no. 1 and no. 2 vehicles, C is the
position where no. 2 vehicle starts turning left, AC is the distance between A and
C (m), and V2 is the left-turn speed of no. 2 vehicle(km/h).
And in the right triangle ΔABC ,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 773
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AC = BC / cosγ (28)
where B is the foot of the perpendicular from point C to the driveway centerline,
BC is the distance between B and C (m), and γ is the included angle between
edge AC and edge BC (rad).
Also, BC is influenced by the driveway throat width, explained by:
W W
BC = (n − 1) + V + ls (29)
2n 2
where W is the throat width(m), n is the number of driveway lanes in one direction,
WV is the vehicle width (m), and ls is the safe spacing between vehicle and lane
edge line(m).
From Equations 27, 28 and 29, the driveway throat width is calculated by:
t V cosγ WV
W = 2n( c 2 − − ls ) / (n − 1) (30)
3. 6 2
2) Model of Curb Radius: According to the assumption, to prevent the
vehicle from getting into the adjacent or opposite-side lanes on the crossroad, when
it turns right from driveway (as Figure 4), a model is proposed as:
GF − EF − WV − ls = ls (31)
where G is the foot of the perpendicular from the point where no. 2 vehicle finishes
turning right to the crossroad lane edge line, F is the crossing point between the
line parallel to crossroad lane edge line through point C and the perpendicular line
from point G to the curb, GF is the distance between point G and point F (m), E
is the foot of the perpendicular from point G to the curb, and EF is the distance
between point E and point F (m).
Based on the triangle principle, in the right triangle ΔDEF , we could get:
EF = DEsinδ (32)
where D is the foot of the perpendicular from point C to the curb, DE is the
distance between point D and point E (m), and δ is the included angle between
edge DE and edge DF (rad).
According to the equation for the chord length of arc which is the vehicle
right-turn trajectory, DE is calculated by:
φ
DE = 2rsin (33)
2
p (rad).
where r is the curb radius(m), and φ is the angle at center of arc DE
From Equations 31, 32 and 33, the model of curb radius is expressed by:
GF − WV − 2ls
r= (34)
φ
2sin sinδ
2
C. Model of clear vision area. Expressed by a sight triangle usually, the
clear vision area of access is provided for the vehicle in the driveway to keep it
visible to the one on the crossroad. It could apply the decision sight distance model,
i.e. Equation 16, to determine whether the access sight triangle could meet the safety
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 774
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requirement or not, shown in Figure 5. Since the crossroad is the arterial street in the
city, the median is constructed on the road. It is only necessary to consider the sight
distance between the left-turn vehicle in the driveway and the one on the upstream
crossroad.

Figure 5. Access sight triangle.

In Figure 5, point H is the starting braking point of upstream crossroad
vehicle. AH is the distance between point A and point H (m). The sight triangle
edges, AH and AC , should be longer than DSD . If not, some speed limit measures
should be adopted.
AN EXAMPLE
The Xin Zhuang Interchange was taken as an example to verify the validity
of models. The ramp terminal of Xin Zhuang Interchange is shown in Figure 6.
Crossroad access in the functional area of this interchange was designed without the
theoretical analysis. One crossroad access was studied as a case. At present, the
driveway throat length is 10m, throat width is 30m, and curb radius is 15m.
There are eight through lanes on the crossroad, each of which is 3.5 meters
wide. There is not ramp metering. However, the adjacent at-grade intersection is
signalized. The crossroad is an arterial street, which has a design speed, Vd , of
60km/h, while the design speed of the ramp is 30km/h.

Figure 6. Ramp terminal of Xin Zhuang Interchange.

A. Survey and statistics. With the survey and statistics of traffic data of the
ramp terminal in the Xin Zhuang Interchange, the values of model variables and
parameters could be obtained as follows:
In Equations 14 and 16, V is 40km/h, a is 0.5s, b is 0.13s, N is 2320 , MT ,
2A
i.e. aM + bM log 2 ( ) , is 0.3s, tbra is 3.15s, Lq is 25m, Δw is 3.25m, T is 3s, Δv ,
WM
1 tb +T 1 t +T / 2
i.e. ∫ ( ∫ Δv( x)dx)dt , is 23.33km/h. In Equation 26, k1 is 10m, k2 is -16s-1,
T b T
t t −T /2

λ is 0.072s-1, tc is 52s, tm is 0.1s, α is 20%, q p is 0.18veh/s, C0 is 0.11veh/s. In

Equations 30 and 34, n is 2, V2 is 30km/h, γ is pi/2.018 radians, GF is 12m, φ is
pi/12 radians and δ is pi/3.6 radians. With Passenger Car Unit as the design vehicle,
WV is 1.8m and ls is 0.5m.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 775
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B. Calculation of interchange's functional area and access design

parameters. Calculated by Equations 14, 16, 26, 30 and 34, following results are
obtained:
Length of upstream functional area of entrance ramp, Fu , is 585.83m. Length
of downstream functional area of exit ramp, Fd , is 471.49m. Driveway throat length,
L , is 59.23m. Driveway throat width, W , is 18.60m. Driveway curb radius, r , is
46.01m. In the access sight triangle, AH and AC are shorter than DSD , as
471.49m (shown in Figure 5), so the speed limit sign or warning signal should be
installed in front of the stop line of driveway.
C. Vissim simulation. The Vissim simulation compares the design
crossroad access with the present one in the interchange's functional area during the
peak hour, illustrated in Figure 7. And it acquires the traffic flow and spot speed at
the cross section of interface between crossroad and driveway, with its two
evaluation functions, i.e. Data Collection and Vehicle Record, shown in Table 1.

(a) Simulation of present condition (b) Simulation of design condition

Figure 7. Comparison of the present and design access in Vissim.

Table 1. Traffic Characteristics of Crossroad Access in the Functional Area.

Cross section of access
Traffic characteristics
Present Design
Traffic flow on the crossroad (veh/h) 2512 2504
Traffic flow in the driveway (veh/h) 275 282
Average spot speed (km/h) 45.56 52.78
Standard deviation of the spot speed (km/h) 15.09 5.21
D. Safety analysis. From simulation results, depicted in Table 1, there is
small traffic flow difference at the cross section of access before and after the design,
so only effects of speed difference on the traffic safety are considered. Then the
model of the relationship between speed variance and crash rate (Aarts et al., 2006)
could be adopted to measure the traffic safety impact of crossroad access design,
which is:
SD
Ar = 0.000435 × (0.6213712v ) 2.252 × exp(5.893 ) (35)
v
where Ar is the injury crash frequency(accidents/year), v is the average spot
speed(km/h), and SD is the standard deviation of the spot speed (km/h).
With Equation 35, the estimated annual injury crash rate of this area is 5.70
accidents/year at present and 2.02 accidents/year after design, which means the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 776
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

logical crossroad access design could heighten the safety level effectively.
CONCLUSION
The proposed calculation methods of an urban interchange's functional area
and design models of crossroad access parameters in the area provide the
quantitative analysis for traffic improvements in the interchange area. The example
indicates that application of the models could promote traffic safety effectively.
However, the crossroad accesses would interfere with each other in the functional
area, which needs further research. The crossroad access design technology in the
functional area of urban interchanges could be upgraded, through studying the traffic
impacts of the interference among crossroad accesses.
REFERENCES
Aarts, L., and Schagen, I. V. (2006). “Driving speed and the risk of road crashes: A
review.” Accident Analysis and Prevention, Elsevier Science, 38, 215–224.
Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). (2002). The interchange handbook,
Tallahassee, Florida.
Gluck, J., Levinson, H. S., and Stover, V. (1999). “Impacts of access management
techniques.” NCHRP Report No. 420, TRB, Washington, D.C.
Long, K. J., Yang, X. G., and Zhou, Z. G., et al. (2006). “Traffic conditions for
interchange at isolated intersection with limited land.” Journal of Highway
and Transportation Research and Development, Research Institute of
Highway Ministry of Transport, 23(10), 86-90.
Nathan, H. G., Carroll, M., and Ajay, K. R. (1996). Monograph on traffic flow theory,
Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
Transportation Research Board (TRB). (2003). Access management manual,
Washington, D.C.
Wang, X. N., Meng, X. H., and Sheng, H. F., et al. (2009). “Calculation on vehicle’s
pollution emission of interchange based on geometric alignment.” China
Journal of Highway and Transport, China Highway and Transportation
Society, 22(6), 96-100.
Xu, Y. L. (2005). Study on the layout and the type selection of interchanges of the
urban road network, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu.
Zhang, N., Qian, Z. D., and Zhuo, X., et al. (2007). “Analysis of traffic features in
vehicle access roads to large public buildings in the urban area.”
Proceedings of the 26th Southern African Transport Conference,
Document Transformation Technologies cc, Pretori, 785-793.
Zhuo, X. (2006). Research on layout and traffic organization of vehicle access of
large public buildings, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 777
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Safety Evaluation of Highway in Mountainous Area

Based on Fuzzy Neural Network

Xiufeng CHEN 1，2, Hongguo XU 1,Guili LIU2

1
School of Transportation ， Jilin University ， Changchun, Jilin, 130022;
Tel:13685420887; Email: chenhill7765@163.com
2
School of Automotive and Transportation，Qingdao Technological University，
Qingdao, Shandong, 266520

ABSTRACT
Safety evaluation of highways in mountainous areas has multi-attributed,
decision-making problems, which the preference information of the decision maker
is not known a priority. In this paper, based on the principle of rank consistency, the
ordering chain comparison method will be used for determining weight vector and
memberships. This makes the weight more consistent with the actual situation. Using
the learning algorithm in BP neural network and comprehensive decision-making
model, it gives the fuzzy comprehensive decision method a base on the neural
network model of weight adjustment. The use of this method makes the weight more
objective and exact, and gives the weight to the self-learning function. In this paper,
the use of this method in comprehensive evaluation of highways in mountainous
areas has led to satisfactory results. This method can effectively solve the traffic
safety evaluation．

INTRODUCTION
From some statistics in 2007, road traffic accidents, that occurred in China’s
mountainous areas, account for 11.24% of the total accidents，and the number of
deaths accounts for 15.49% of traffic accidents. It has caused huge losses to the
people's lives and property. Therefore, people are concerned about the issue of how
to objectively and accurately evaluate the safety of roads in mountainous areas，
identify potential safety problems and effectively reducing or preventing accidents
and losses。
Some scholars within China and abroad have carried out extensive studies on
the macro-evaluation of road traffic safety. The main evaluations are accident rate
method, empirical model method and analysis method（AHP, fuzzy evaluation, gray
evaluation）etc (Luo et al.,1995, 78). Comprehensive evaluations of road safety are
multi-attributed, decision-making problems, which the preference information of the
decision maker is not known a priori. It is difficult to get satisfactory results using
the above-mentioned methods in the evaluation of road safety. In practices, the
normalization of evaluation indexes, which having different dimension representing
different types and physical meanings, do not accurately determine the true level of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 778
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the object. The determination of index weight in the evaluation process could not
avoid the randomness, as well as subjective evaluation of experts.
In this paper, based on the principle of rank consistency, the ordering chain
comparison method will be used for determining weight vector and
memberships.Using the weights determined by this method as initial weights, the BP
neural networks learning algorithm and fuzzy optimization model can be carried out
in the fuzzy comprehensive decision-making method (Li et al.,1995, 45).
THE ORDERING CHAIN COMPARISON METHOD
Sort Consistency Principle: compares the importance between any two

objectives ci and c j in the set C (c1 , c 2 , ", c m ) , using f ij to express the importance

of scale. The principle of its value is:

⎧0, cj is more important than ci

⎪ cj is the same important as ci
f ij = ⎨0.5，
⎪1， ci is more important than cj
⎩

Here the value of the f ij expresses the qualitative sort of importance for

target set, which is called qualitative sort scale. As a result, a qualitative sorting scale
matrix of binary can be constituted.
E = ( f ij )m×m

The Ordering Chain Comparison Method for determining weight vector:

Using the principle of sort consistency to sort the importance in target set
C (c1 , c 2 , ", c m ) , granting the sort of target set is c1 , c 2 , ", c m , it can be given the

importance multiples λi −1,i in turn which expressing the importance ci −1 to ci ,

λi −1,i ≥ 1 . If the weight w1' = 1 of c1 ， the weight of other target values

ci (i = 2,3, ", m ) are:

wi' = wi' −1 λi −1,i i = 2,3, " , m

m m
λi −1,i = ∑ f i −1, j ∑f i, j i = 2,3, " , m j = 1,2, " , m
j =1 j =1
Where:
To normalize the target weight and restore to the target set consistent with the
original target number, the weight vector can be gotten:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 779
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w = (w1 , w2 , " wn )
T

m
wi = wi' ∑w
i =1
'
i i = 1,2,", m
Where:
The ordering chain comparison method can be used to determine index
membership in road safety evaluation.
NETWORK ACTIVATION FUNCTION AND LEARNING STEP
Using error back passing thought of BP neural network learning algorithm to do
weight adjustment, makes the weight fast convergence and more objective, accurate
and have stronger self-learning functions. Supposing network input layer is
X = ( x1 , x 2 ,", x m ) and N group of samples, a particular input γ k (k = 1,2," , N ) ，the

identity function is selected for the input layer node activation function ，that is
g (x ) = x . The output layer is the comprehensive evaluation of input

later γ k (k = 1,2,", N ) , the activation function of output layer nodes is:

[
f ( x ) = 1 + (1 x − 1) ]
2 −1

In essence, error back passing is used to calculate the output value along the
direction of the network inputs to outputs, and get the errors between the output
values and the sample values. Then reverse the process along opposite direction to
calculation. The adjusted value of w can be obtained by gradient. It is:
( )
Δwik = ηγ ik U k − U k f 2 (net k )h(net k )

Where h( x ) = 2(1 − x ) x 3 ， η is the learning efficiency, its value being

between 0 and 1. In order to improve network performance and convergence speed,
an impulse item is added to weight adjust value:
( )
Δwik (t + 1) = ηγ ik U k − U k f 2 (net k )h(net k ) + αΔwik (t )
Where α is impulse factor, its value being between 0 and 1; t is network
training times.
SAFETY EVALUATION OF HIGHWAY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREA BASED
ON FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK
Construction of evaluation index system: there are many factors that affect the
safety of mountain highways, which are complicated relationships, large data
interference and difficulty to determine the factors. In this paper, 4 indexes affecting
the road safety in mountain areas are developed (road conditions, road alignments,
safety facilities and road environment), which contain a number of lower-level
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 780
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indexes. The number of all the lower-level indexes is 19(Li et al., 2005, 59. Xu et al., 2006,
116). (see table 1).
Table 1. Index system of road safety in mountain area.
evaluation indexes
road
road conditions road alignments safety facilities
environment
superelevation;
traffic flow;
horizontal
hybrid rate; traffic signs;
alignment; tunnels and
flatness; traffic marks;
composition of bridges;
lower-leveladhesive capacity; emergency
longitudinal and crossings;
indexes pavement contact facilities;
vertical; village
maintenance level; isolation protect
sight distance; edestrian.
pavement damage facilities.
longitudinal linear;
state.
widening.
Determination of the initial weight vector: the four lower-level indexes of
safety facilities were selected from the index system of road safety in mountain areas.
A qualitative sorting scale matrix of binary E can then be constituted according to
indexes’ importance comparison made by experts. It is:

⎡0.5 0 1 0⎤
⎢ 1 0.5 1
⎢ 0 ⎥⎥
E=
⎢0 0 0.5 0 ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎣1 1 1 0.5⎦
The original weight vector can be determined by the ordering chain
comparison method. It is：
w = (0.19,0.31,0.06,0.44 )

Similarly, the indexes weight of road safety evaluation in mountain area can
be set (See table 2).
Table 2. Index weight of road safety evaluation.
guidelines weights indexes weights
road conditions 0.19 traffic flow 0.07
hybrid rate 0.27
flatness 0.25
adhesive capacity 0.25
Pavement maintenance level 0.02
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 781
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pavement damage state 0.12

super elevation 0.08
horizontal alignment 0.19
composition of horizontal and
0.31
road alignments 0.44 vertical
sight distance 0.25
longitudinal linear 0.14
widening 0.03
traffic signs 0.19
traffic marks 0.31
safety facilities 0.31
emergency contact facilities 0.06
isolation protect facilities 0.44
tunnels and bridges 0.56
road
0.06 crossings 0.22
environment
village pedestrian 0.22
Neural network learning: Five different sections of a mountain road were
selected. The index weight of road safety was then adjusted by neural network model
of weight adjustment. Selecting the four lower-level indexes of safety facilities, the
membership of different roads can be obtained by ordering chain comparison method
(see table 3).
Table 3. Lower-level indexes membership of safety facilities.
traffic emergency isolation protect
section traffic mars expected output
signs contact facilities facilities
1 1 1 0.11 0.22 0.60

2 0.11 0.33 0.33 0.56 0.52

3 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.78 0.65

4 0.33 0.11 1 0.22 0.5

5 0.78 0.78 0.78 1 0.72

The neural network is learning according to label 2 and label 3, which has
four input neurons and one output neuron. A network output （0.60，0.522，0.643，0.529，
0.703） is achieved after trained with network learning rate, 0.9, momentum factor,
0.5 and system error target, 0.00001.
Similarly, the samples are trained according to data of road conditions, road
alignments and road environment. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation of the
sections is trained, and network outputs are given (see label 4) .

Table 4. Sample output of neural network training.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 782
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road road safety road comprehensive

section
conditions alignments facilities environment evaluation
1 0.576 0.523 0.600 0.721 0.596

2 0.430 0.570 0.522 0.432 0.540

3 0.543 0.473 0.643 0.522 0.608

4 0.682 0.530 0.529 0.612 0.573

5 0.526 0.673 0.703 0.550 0.616

In the table 4, the error between network output and expected output is
0.0007. Therefore the network has better achieved the evaluation of traffic safety in
mountain areas. Using the safety evaluation method, based on fuzzy neural network
to road sections in mountain areas (see table 5), it is shown that the results of the
analysis show that the safety of section 3 is best, and section 2 is worst. Fuzzy
statistics method is used to evaluate the safety sections as a reference. The result
shows that the two methods have good consistency.
Table 5. Safety index value and safety evaluation.
section traffic flow(PCU/Y) accidents(number/Y) mortality ①method ②method
1 35.49 17 0.14 0.573 0.582
2 35.49 25 0.21 0.524 0.430
3 43.2 16 0.17 0.597 0.621
①fuzzy statistics method. ②fuzzy neural network method
CONCLUSION
Highway conditions in mountains are very complex, which the preference
information of the decision maker is not known a priori. It is difficult to evaluate
the safety accurately. Fuzzy neural network is a new, practical method for safety
evaluation in mountainous areas.
In this method, with ordering chain comparison method to construct the
original weight and index membership, it can avoid randomness and subjective
evaluation of experts in highway safety evaluations. And the output activation
function of neural network uses a clearer intuitive physical meaning from fuzzy
priority, which makes the network faster convergence. This method is used to
evaluate the road sections in mountain area, evaluation results are satisfactory.
REFERENCES
Jacobs, G.D, Baguley, C.J.(1996). “Towards strategy of improving road safety in
developing countries”．Annual Review：Transport research laboratory.
56～78
Luo, J.T., Liu, X.M., Ren, F.T. (1995). “The gray evaluation of road traffic safety”.
China journal of highway and transport. 8(4), 78-83.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 783
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Li, D.F., Chen, S.Y., Chen, C.T.(1995). “A comprehensive method of fuzzy neural
network for multiattribute decision making problems”. Systems engineering
theory methodology applications.4(2), 45-52.
Li, J.L., Sun, W.H.(2005).“Highway traffic accident analysis and countermeasures”.
China safety science journal. 15(1), 59-61
Xu, H.G., Liu, Z.H., Wang, C., Wan, W.X.（2006）. “Safety evaluation of highway in
mountainous area based on fuzzy statistic”. China safety science journal. 16
（10）：116-119
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 784
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Building Dangerous State Recognition Platform of Commercial Vehicle’s Brake

System by Using Multi-sensor Technology

Zhifa YANG1, Shiwu LI1, Yunpeng WANG1, Hailin KUI*1, Weiyuan SUN1

1
Traffic and Transportation College, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, P.R.China,
ST:130022; PH (+86) 0431-84049946; email: yangzf@jlu.edu.cn

*1The corresponding author: Hailin KUI, Tel:043185095086, email:khl69@163.com

ABSTRACT
In recent years, most road traffic accidents were caused by commercial
vehicles, the main reason being the bad conditions of brake systems. In this paper,
based on the statistical data of the accidents caused by commercial vehicles,
symptoms and mechanisms of the accidents are analyzed; the main factors of the
accidents were discovered. Then, using multi-sensor technology, WinCE 5.0 and
distributed data acquisition technology, a software and hardware platform for data
acquisition of the commercial vehicle brake system running parameters was built. By
using the platform, the vehicle's brake system performance parameters can be
collected in real-time to recognize dangerous brake systems.

1. INTRODUCTION
China is one of the countries on Road Safety Situation (RSS). Since 2005, the
RSS has been improving, but the overall situation remains grim. In all road traffic
accidents in China, commercial vehicles are a leading vehicle type. The statistics of
Chinese highway commercial vehicle accidents from 2005 to 2007 are in Table 1,
and the accidents triggered by commercial vehicles totaled more than 70% (Liu
Baixiu, ect. 2008; Wang Liying, 2008).

Table 1. The statistics of Chinese highway vehicle accidents from 2005 to 2007.
type of vehicle truck and truck and chain collision others total
truck passenger car accident （%） （%）
year （%） （%） （%）
2005 28 48 22 2 100
2006 26 47 24 3 100
2007 27 44 25 4 100
In the study of Ye Zhonghui, 32% of commercial vehicles in all vehicles
caused more than 53% of accidents in all road traffic accidents (Ye Zhonghui. 2005).
The accident rate of commercial vehicles is 1.45 times higher (106 vehicle.km)-1
which is much higher than the average accident rate of all types of vehicles, which is
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 785
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0.56 times (106 vehicle.km)-1 (Gao Jianping, etc., 2005).

Most of all, the accidents related to commercial vehicles are caused by bad
mechanical conditions. A vehicle's braking performance is an important indicator to
ensure road safety because, over-long braking distance, sideslip and sway are the
main causes of many accidents. The accidents caused by vehicle brake systems total
about 8% in all road traffic accidents (Gao Jianping, etc., 2005). So we concluded
that bad mechanical conditions of break systems are one of the main causes of
commercial vehicle’s accidents.
Monitoring the mechanical conditions and identifying and preempting the
dangerous conditions are very important techniques to prevent and control accidents.
In this research on the break systems of commercial vehicles, the main factors which
lead to bad mechanical conditions will be analyzed and the system which can
recognize dangerous states will be built. These works will lay the foundation for
recognizing the dangerous states of brake systems of commercial vehicles.

2. METHOD
2.1 Analyzing the Main Inducing Factors of Dangerous State of Brake System
There are four factors for evaluating the working state of vehicle brake
systems, as follows: braking distance, braking deceleration, braking force and
braking coordinated time. Braking distance, which is the most intuitive parameter for
evaluating brake performance, is decided by brake system hydraulic or pneumatic;
braking deceleration, which reflects the reducing rate of speed of the braking vehicle,
is decided by the mass of the vehicle; braking force, which is an essential parameter
to evaluate the vehicle braking performance, is decided by the force and adhesion
coefficient between the vehicle and the road. Studies have shown that braking force
and braking deceleration are essentially the same two parameters (Li Bin, 2005).
With these factors, braking distance and braking coordination time are directly
related to the performance of brake system. Moreover, the state of the brake staff,
which can be measured by the thickness of the brake shoe and brake temperature, can
directly impact the performance of the break system. When the brake pressure is
inadequate or excessive, the brake shoe is too thin or the brake temperature is too
high the break system will be considered dangerous.

2.2 Building the Dangerous State Recognition Platform

1) Essential idea
From 2.1, we can conclude that identifying and monitoring the performance of
brake systems will greatly enhance traffic safety. In this research, by fixing pipe
pressure sensor, tire temperature sensor, brake shoe thickness sensor and brake pedal
force sensors on the brake system, using self-developed information collection and
processing system, the dangerous state recognition platform of commercial vehicle’s
brake systems by using multi-sensor technology was built.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 786
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2) Hardware platform
The hardware includes sensors for data collecting, ADAM modules for data
transformation, and an industrial computer for data processing.
A pipe pressure sensor is used to collect the pressure of the brake system; it is
fixed on the brake system where there will be poor environmental conditions, so the
sensor must be anti-vibration, anti-shock, and corrosion-resistant, therefore
CGYL-203 normal temperature pressure sensor is chosen. When choosing the tire
temperature sensor, placement convenience and working at the vehicle’s operating
state are considered, so the CGWD-401C temperature sensor is chosen. Brake shoe
thickness sensor is used to collect a certain thickness, so switch-type sensors are
chosen.
ADAM modules will transform the signal and send them to the industrial
computer, the main function is to transform all the sensor signals into numerical
signals. ADAM-4017 and ADAM-4052 are chosen, they use RS-4851 transmit data.
The industrial computer which will be fixed in the vehicle is CPU an
UNO-2170 with the serial card developed by the embedded system. This computer
can identify the signal, process data, and send steering instructions.
Tire temperature sensor signal will be collected by PC104 card (PCM-3614).
A schematic diagram of the system is shown in Figure 1.

pressure
brake
sensor of brake
brake shoe shoe
temperature thickness pipe brake pedal temperature thickness
sensor of front sensor of pressure master force sensor of sensor of
tire front tire sensor cylinder sensor rear tire rear tire

ADAM Industrial display and alarm

module computer equipment

power
supply
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 787
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Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the system.

Data transmission control flow of this system is as following: the ADAM
module collects and converts sensor signals, then transmits them to the industrial
computer, Finally, data will be processed by the industrial computer. The data
transmission and control diagram are shown in Figure 2.

pipe pressure
sensor 24V

pressure ADAM- RS232

sensor of 4017
RS4815

tire

PC104
brake master
temperature
cylinder
sensor

PCM3614
brake shoe UNO2170
thickness WinCE 5.0 system
sensor ADAM-
4052

Figure 2. Data transmission and control diagram.

3) Software platform
The software system was developed by Windows CE and is embedded in an
industrial computer. Taking account of the convenience of equipment management
and extension in the future, it will contain two layers, as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3. Overall level of the software block diagram.

2.3 Dangerous State Judging Process

After sensor data is sent to the industrial computer, it will distinguish data type,
and identify a single sensor data to determine whether the data is within the threshold.
Those data which are within the threshold will be comprehensive evaluated with
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 788
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more sensor data by a model. The process is as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Dangerous state judging flow.

3. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
The running state of a vehicle is impacted by many factors. Identifying the
running state of the brake system will improve the safety of vehicle operations. In
this study, the system hardware and software are designed, programs are debugged
successfully, and preliminary testing had been completed, so it can identify the
dangerous state of brake systems. In future research, the reliability and stability
experience of this system will be examined.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research is financially supported by the National Natural Science
Foundation of China( No.50878094) and National Hi-tech Research & Development
Project（“863”Project）（No. 2009AA11Z215）and Youth Fund of Jilin Provincial
Science & Technology Program(No. 20090104). Thanks to all the members of the
project team for their hard work.

REFERENCES
Gao Jianping, Liu Benmin, Guo Zhongyin (2005). Influence of Heavy Vehicles on
Traffic Safety of Freeways. Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),
33(6),763-767.
Li bin (2005). The Study of the Automobile Brake Performance Simulation and
Dynamic Test Technique. M.S. Thesis, Northeast Forestry University,
China.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 789
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Liu Baixiu, Li Gang, Xiao Dianliang, Liu Saihua (2008). Analysis on Causes for
Truck Accidents on Hoghway and Special Lane for Trucks. China Safety
Science Journal, 18(4),157-162.
Wang Liying (2008). Truck Traffic Accidents Analysis and Countermeasures. Journal
of LiaoNing Police Academy, No.6,53-55.
Ye Zhonghui (2005). Causes and Countermeasures for Truck Traffic Accidents on
Highway. Highways & Automotive Applications, No.1, 23-25.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 790
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The Influence of the Number of Road Names on Guide Signs on Drivers’

Recognition

Y. LIN1, and X. PAN2

1
School of Civil Engineering, Anhui University of Science & Technology, Huainan
Anhui , China; PH (0554) 6668737; email: tongji_yulin@163.com
2
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China; PH
(021) 69585721; email: panxd3@163.com

ABSTRACT
Information overload is a general problem in the layout design of urban guide
signs in China. Based on large numbers of indoor simulation experiments with EMR-
8B as an experimental apparatus used to simulate the process of drivers’ search for
destination they are not familiar with from guide sings, this paper studies the
influence of the number of road names on guide signs on the drivers’ recognition.
The main conclusions obtained are as follows: The number of road names of guide
signs has significant impact on driver’s recognition. In all, the more the number of
road names, the longer the recognition times; When the number of road names is less
than 5, with the number of road names increase, the increasing tendency of
recognition time shouldn’t be obvious. If the numbers are more than 5, the
recognition time shows a greatly notable increasing tendency. At last, the suitable
number of road names should be less than 5 is proposed for urban guide sign layout
design.

INSTRUCTION
The guide signs are important facilities for modern traffic management used to
transfer information of road names, directions and distances for drivers. Information
overload is a general problem in the layout design of urban guide signs in China
because it will surely aggravate drivers’ visual load and lead to longer search time
and drivers’ distraction. This causes great adverse impacts on driving safety,
especially high speed driving.
Information overload refers to the drivers not being able to recognize the traffic
information which they need from guide signs in limited times. The current national
specification for traffic signs and markings design (GB-5768-1999) has guided
concretely on the color of the layout, structure of Chinese characters and the size of
the layout design of the guide sign, yet has not formulated systematic and scientific
specifications and guidance for the information quantum of the layout design.
The problems of the recognition and information overload of guide signs have
raised concerns due to the general deficiency guidance for layout design. Liu X. and
Zhang K. (2003) studied the method for traffic signs information quantitative
evaluation and the impact of information quantum on traffic sign usability. Juan Z.C.,
et al. (2006) studied the comprehension of traffic signs of drivers based on cognitive
psychology, and a new drivers’ information processing model was proposed. The
information contents of signs shouldn’t exceed the attention resource and the short
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 791
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memory capacity of drivers restricting the legibility of signs. Cao P., et al. (2006)
proposed a traffic sign information processing model based on the information theory,
and the signs' information which drivers accepted was quantified using information
entropy. Pan X.D. and Lin Y. (2006) studied the influence of lighting conditions on
traffic sign visibility distance under different driving speeds based on large numbers
of driving experiments with EMR-8B as the test apparatus, and the relativity among
visibility distance, driving speed and lighting condition is analyzed. Du Z.G. and Pan
X.D. (2008) studied the relationship between information quantity and recognition of
traffic guide signs, when the road name number on the guide sign is 2-7, the reaction
time of recognition is less than 2.50s, and the rational road name number of guide
sign is less than 5. Wu R. and Lu J. (2008) used eye tracking techniques to track
drivers’ eye movement, gaze direction, duration time and the other parameters, and
the significance and feasibility of applying eye tracking techniques in the study of
drivers' visual search characteristics of traffic signs are analyzed. Wang J.J., et al.
(2009) concluded experimental methods on the threshold value of the traffic sign
information overload are gained, and the information amounts of traffic sign modules
are presented. Su W.Y. and Li D. (2009) researched the relationship between the
retro-reflectivity and night visibility of traffic signs in order to standardize and
conduct use of road traffic signs and retro-reflective material and enhance the night
visibility of traffic signs. Jiang H.F, et al. (2009) conducted a large number of field
tests, and the quantitative relationship between word height of Chinese characters on
traffic guide signs and their visual recognition was analyzed.
This paper researches the influence of the number of road names on guide signs
on drivers’ recognition based on large numbers of indoor simulation experiments
with EMR-8B as the experimental apparatus. The suitable number of road names for
guide sign layout design is proposed.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
Experimental apparatus
The indoor simulation experimental apparatus is EMR-8B produced by NAC
Image Technology Co. of Japan. It is a system composed of EMR host, controller,
and video camera (see Figures 1 and 2).
The main function of the EMR-8B is to obtain information of the human
subjects’ eyeball movements, including duration time and movement path of the eye
mark and so on.

Figure 1. The EMR-8B Host.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 792
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Controller
Power

EMR-8B

VCR

Figure 2. The Hardware Component of EMR-8B.

Subjects
In this indoor simulation experiment, a sample of 20 licensed drivers served as
the subjects. The subject’s age ranged from 20 to 45 and the age distribution was as
follows: 10 people aged between 20~25, 6 between 26~30, 4 between 31~45, with
corrected vision all over 4.9.
Layout style of guide signs
In order to study the influence of the number of road names on guide signs on
drivers’ recognition, the layout style should reflect the differences in the number of
road names; 36 blocks of guide signs with different numbers of road names are
designed in the experiment (see Figure 3). All guide signs are divided into 6 groups,
where each group includes 6 blocks of guide signs, and in which the number of road
names is 7 at most, 2 at least. It is required that road names shouldn’t contain any
difficult Chinese character and should be written in both Chinese and English.

Figure 3. The Layout Style of Guide Signs.

Experimental approach
The designed guide signs are made into images through Microsoft PowerPoint,
which then are automatically played on the large screen through the projector with a
time interval of 5s between each image. Subjects sit right in front of the screen and
the distance is determined according to the theory of human-machine engineering, so
that it can provide the subjects with the best visual environment (see Figure 4).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 793
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Figure 4. The Indoor Simulation Experiment.

In view of drivers’ sensitivity to the guide signs, it can be thought that drivers
don’t necessarily need to read the whole content on the signs when interpreting the
information according to their habits. Usually, to ensure the necessity of certain
operation, finding the first character of the road names they want to find is enough.
For this reason, the experimenters are given 5 different road names during the
experiment to simulate the process of drivers’ search for destination they are not
familiar with from guide sings. The duration time of the eye mark on the guide signs
is recorded by EMR-8B, and the accumulative duration time on the guide sign is
called recognition time of guide signs (see Figure 5).

Figure 5. The Duration of Eye Mark on Guide Signs.

RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

Data collection
According to the experimental video recorded by VCR, the data analysis
software of EMR-8B is applied to obtain the duration time of the eye mark on the
guide signs. The process of experimental data collection is given in Figure 6.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 794
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Figure 6. The Process of Experimental Data Collection.

Statistical analysis
The SPSS for windows was used in experimental data statistical analysis; the
result is shown in table 1.

Table 1. Statistical Analysis Result.

Number of Road
2 3 4 5 6 7
Names
Sample Number 20 20 20 20 20 20
Mean 0.6999 0.6523 0.7094 0.7632 1.2163 1.5786
Median 0.7425 0.7045 0.7038 0.6529 1.300 1.6076
Std. Deviation 0.1710 0.2147 0.2587 0.3359 0.4989 0.4472
Variance 0.029 0.046 0.067 0.113 0.249 0.2
Skewness -0.497 0.088 0.126 0.582 -0.211 -0.538
Std. Error of
0.512 0.512 0.512 0.512 0.512 0.512
Skewness
Minimum 0.383 0.2777 0.2145 0.2131 0.234 0.6119
Maximum 0.967 1.0209 1.1843 1.4958 2.017 2.1876
The 85th Percent
0.8749 1.1115 1.0468 1.2205 1.7628 2.1115
Value
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 795
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From the above statistical analysis results of experimental data, the main
conclusions obtained are as follows:
The statistical results indicated that most experimental data sample of
recognition time appeared approximate normal distribution, and the experimental
data shows great discrepancy among different subjects. The reasons of the
discrepancy of experimental data analyzed are as follows:
Subjects’ different physical and physiological reactions are definitely the main
reason, because different eye-ball movements cause various processes of finding
road names.
The distribution of subjects’ eye marks is random. If the eye mark happens to
first reach the road name they want to find, then the recognition time is definitely
short.
During the experiment, subjects are in a state of stress all the way. Moods such
as fatigue, tiredness, irritation and so on will affect the reliability of the data.

The robust estimation method

In order to reduce the influence of the dispersion of experimental data on the
results of the research, the robust estimation method is adopted in this essay to
process the experimental data.
The robust estimation method is put forward based on the defects arising from
processing experiment data with gross errors, in allusion to the principle of the least
squares algorithm. Actually, robust estimation refers to the fact that when gross
errors of experiment data are unavoidable, estimation methods are chosen to reduce
the influence of gross errors on estimation of unknown quantity to the lowest degree,
so that optimal estimation can be obtained under normal mode. Robust estimation
can be interpreted as the gross errors certain estimation method causes to observed
value or the resistibility of abnormal value.
The robust estimation value of the recognition time of guide signs is calculated
by equation 1 as follows:
Tˆi =
∑（wij × Tij ) (1)
∑ wij
Where:
Tˆi = the robust estimation value of the recognition time with i road names;
wij =the weight of experimental data sample ( i = 2,3, 4,5,6,7; j = 1, 2,3……20 );
i = number of road names;
j = serial number of the subjects;
Tij = the recognition time of the signs with i road names for No. j subjects;
The weight of experimental data sample is computed by equation 2 as follows:
1
wij = (2)
Tij − Ti
Where:
Ti =the average recognition time of the guide signs with i road names.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 796
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The robust estimation value of recognition time of guide signs with different
number of road names is given in table 2.

Table 2. The Robust Estimation Value.

Numbers of Road Name The Robust Estimation Value (s)
2 0.7137
3 0.8639
4 0.709
5 0.9229
6 1.316
7 1.588

CONCLUSIONS
With the above-mentioned statistical analysis and robust estimation method
being applied to process and analyze the experimental data, the general trend of the
number of road names on guide signs and recognition time can be figured out (see
Figure 7).

2.5

The 85th Percent Value

2
Recognition Times(s)

The Robust Estimation Value

1.5

0.5

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
The Number of Road Names

Figure 7. Trend of the Number of Road Names and Recognition Time.

The main conclusions obtained are as follows:

The number of road names on guide signs has a significant impact on driver’s
recognition.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 797
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

In all, the more the number of road names, the longer the recognition times;
when the number of road names is less than 5, with the number of road names
increase, the increasing tendency of recognition time shouldn’t be obvious. And if
the numbers are more than 5, the recognition time shows a greatly notable increasing
tendency.
The suitable number of road names should be less than 5 is proposed for urban
guide sign layout design.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Financial support for this study was provided by the Doctor and Master Science
Research Fund of Anhui University of Science & Technology. The authors are
grateful to Prof. Fand S.E., and Pan X.D. at key laboratory of road and traffic
engineering of the Ministry of Education, School of Transportation Engineering,
Tongji University for their support and participation in indoor simulation experiment.

REFERENCES
Tang Z.Z., and Jia M. (1997). “Research on Nighttime Visibility of Highway
Retroreflective Signs.” Journal of Highway and Transportation Research
and Development, Vol.14, No.3, pp.48-53.
Liu X., and Zhang K. (2003). “The Method for Traffic sign Quantitive Evaluation.”
Ergonomics, Vol.9, No.4, pp.23-26.
Lin Y., Pan X.D., and Fang S.E. (2005). “Relationship Between Information
Quantum of Traffic Guide Sign and Its Cognition.” Journal of
Transportation Engineering and Information. Vol.3, No.3, pp.73-76.
Lin Y., Pan X.D., and Fang S.E. (2005). “Study on Visual Angle Threshold of
Traffic Sign.” Highway, No.7, pp.142-144.
Juan Z.C., Cao P., and Wu W.J. (2006). “Study on Driver Traffic Signs
Comprehension Based on Cognitive Psychology.” China Safety Science
Journal, Vol.15, No.8, pp.8-11.
Cao P., Wu W.J., and Juan Z.C. (2006). “Study on Driver’s Comprehension of
Traffic Signs Based on Information Measurement.” Journal of Highway
and Transportation Research and Development. Vol.23, No.9, pp.118-120.
Pan X.D., and Lin Y. (2006). “Research on Traffic Sign Visibility Distance under
Backlighting Condition.” Journal of Highway and Transportation
Research and Development, Vol.23, No.5, pp.118-120.
Du Z.G., Pan X.D., and Guo X.B. (2008). “Relationship Between Information
Quantity and Visual Cognition of Traffic Guide sign." Journal of Traffic
and Transportation Engineering. Vol.8, No.1, pp.118-122.
Wu R., and Lu J. (2008). “Application Study on the Drivers’ Visual Search
Characteristics of Traffic Signs Based on Eye Tracking Techniques.”
Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information. Vol.2, No.6,
pp.96-101.
Wang J.J., Wang J., and Wu H.G. (2009). “A Study on Threshold Value of Traffic
Sign Information Overload.” Highway, No.7, pp.174-179.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 798
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Su W.Y., Li D. (2009). “Retroreflectivity and Night Visibility of Road Traffic

Signs.” Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and
Development. Vol.26, No.2, pp.114-118.
Jiang H.F., Han W.Y., and Zhang Z.Y. (2009). “Study of Relationship Between
Word Height and Recognition for Traffic Guide Signs.” Journal of
Highway and Transportation Research and Development. Vol.26, No.7,
pp.115-120.
Ding Y.L. (2005). Human Engineering. Beijing Institute of Technology Press,
Beijing, 2005.
Lu W.D.(2003). SPSS for Windows Statistical Analysis. Publishing House of
Electronics Industry, Beijing, 2003.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 799
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Setting All-red Clearance Interval Based on Traffic Conflict Technique

at Signalized Intersection

Yuan LI1 Zhenzhong HUANG 2 Hewei YUAN 3

1
Transportation College, Hohai University, 1 Xi-Kang Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu
210098, PH (86) 25-83795354; email:yuanlibox@sina.com
2
Chemical Technology Vocational College, Henan Industrial University, 548
Zheng-Shang Road, Zhengzhou, Henan 450042, PH (86) 371-68055552; email:
hnhxhuang@163.com
3
Henan Communication Vocational Technology College,Zhengzhou, 42 Tao-Yuan
Road, Zhengzhou, Henan 450002, PH(86)371-61915181; email:yuanhewei@126.com

ABSTRACT
Crashes caused by red light violations (RLV) are often associated with injuries
and in some instances fatalities. Low cost safety treatments at signalized intersections
are effective in mitigating traffic crashes and injuries. It is well known that the
duration of all-red clearance interval is one of the more significant factors involving
low cost safety treatments. Appropriate all-red clearance interval would improve the
safety of a signalized intersection. However, in the absence of a well designed, all-red
interval, these vehicles run the risk of a collision with the cross-street vehicles since
they will be traveling during the green light. The research presents a method to
determine all-red clearance interval based on avoiding traffic conflicts between an
exiting traffic stream and an entering traffic stream. Compared to the other method of
calculating all-red clearance interval, the conflict zone approach is more applicable,
better reflecting intersection geometry and controls sequence. It considers the traffic
operations at an intersection in more detail and takes into account both the exit and
the entrance time.
INTRODUCTION
It is well known that the duration of intersection clearance intervals is one of
the more significant factors influencing intersection accident rates (Eccles, 2001).
Poor signal timing may not only be inefficient, but also result in traffic crash. All-red
clearance interval is the interval between the start of red for one traffic stream and the
start of green for the succeeding conflicting traffic stream (Lum  et al., 2003). The
purpose of all-red clearance interval is to allow vehicles to clear the intersection
before opposing traffic receives a green indication (Muller et al., 2004). Most research
supports the idea that the use of all-red clearance intervals reduces accidents at
signalized intersection (Reginald et al., 2004). While clearance intervals are important
for safety, they also contribute to lose time and affect delay (Wong et al., 2001),
queuing, and necessary cycle length, then clearance time should be as small as
possible while still allowing a traffic stream to safely allow a conflicting stream (Yuan
et al., 2005).
TRAFFIC CONFLICT METHOD TO DETERMING RED CLEARANCE
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 800
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INTERVAL
The traffic conflict zone method is targeted the all-red time(“all-red interval”)
basing on the principle that traffic in the entering stream should wait until a vehicle
from the previous stream that enters the intersection in the last moment of yellow
completely clears the intersection (Yuan et al., 2008).
For a given conflicting vehicle, all-red time is based on the travel time in the
exiting and entering stream to the “conflict zone”, the area within the intersection
where paths taken by vehicles in the two streams first overlap (Yuan et al., 2009). It
streams at a typical intersection are shown in Figure 1. To avoid a crash, all-red time,
r must be

r = texit − tenter                                                             (1)

where
texit = exiting vehicle’s travel time from stop line to beyond conflict zone(s)
tenter = time of first vehicle from entering movement to reach conflict zone(s)
Senter = distance from the stop line of the entering stream to conflict zone (m)
Sexit = distance from the stop line in the exiting stream travel to fully clear the
conflict zone(including the length of a vehicle)(m)

Sentrance

Sexit

conflict
zone

Figure 1． Traffic stream conflicting zone at signalized intersection.

Determining of Exit Time

Exit time is calculated as
S exit
texit = (2)
V exit

Sexit = W + L (3)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 801
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where
Vexit = speed of a vehicle in the exit stream that across the stop line at the last
moment of yellow (m/s)
W = width of the intersection (m)
L = length of a vehicle (m)
Determining of Entrance Time
The calculation of entrance time is more complex in comparison to the
calculation of exit time. For vehicles that decelerate to a stop at the stop line before
the light turns green, the entrance time can be calculated easily based on an
acceleration trajectory. However, a vehicle approaching the stop line has started to
decelerate because the light is red, but before it comes to a stop, the light turns green,
the vehicle can then begin to accelerate and enter the intersection at some speed.
Basing on the position and speed of the entering vehicle, the entrance time can be
calculated and differ. For safety, the entrance time should be calculated basing on the
smallest possible entrance time.
Analysis of Smallest Entrance Time
Consider if a signal turned green early enough during the vehicle’s
deceleration that the driver had time to react and then begin accelerate before coming
to the stop line. Define tx as time that a vehicle decelerates to stop until signal turns
green. If a vehicle comes to a complete stop, tx >0, and if a vehicle that never comes
to a complete stop, tx <0.
For a given distance to the conflict zone S=Senter, tenter(S)=τ(s)+tr, tr is defined
as a reaction time between when the light turns green and acceleration begins may be
taken into account. Defining adjust entrance time as entrance time minus reaction
time, that is,
'
tenter = tenter − tr (4)

'
So that  tenter = τ ( s)

Consider the vehicle’s trajectory during deceleration id heading for the point
(s=0, τ=0) with constant deceleration a-, its speed and position at time tx are given by

V (t x ) = t x ⋅ a− (5)

1
S (t x ) = a − ⋅t x2 (6)
2
At the moment t=tx the vehicle begins to accelerate with acceleration a+. The
vehicle’s speed and position at t>tx are given by
V (τ | t x ) = V (t x ) + a+ ⋅ (τ − t x )                                                           (7)

1
S (τ | t x ) = s(t x ) + v(t x ) ⋅ (τ − t x ) + ⋅ a+ ⋅ (τ − t x )2                               (8)
2
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 802
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Substituting equations 5 and 6 into equations 7 and 8 yields

V (τ | t x ) = t x ⋅ a− + a+ ⋅ (τ − t x ) (9)

1 1
S (τ | t x ) = a − ⋅t x2 + t x ⋅ a− ⋅ (τ − t x ) + ⋅ a+ ⋅ (τ − t x )2 (10)
2 2
For a given entrance distance S, a adjust entrance time is

'
tenter = τ ( s) − t x (11)

Combing equations 10 and 11, entrance distance can be expressed as the function
1 1
'
S (tenter | t x ) = a − ⋅t x2 + t x ⋅ a− ⋅ tenter
'
+ ⋅ a+ ⋅ tenter
' 2
                        (12)
2 2
Solving for adjusted entrance time,

−a− ⋅ t x + t x2 ⋅ a−2 − a+ ⋅ (a− ⋅ t x2 − 2 ⋅ s)

‘
t
enter ( s, t x ) = (13)
a+

The critical value of tx for a given value s, found by taking the derivative of
the expression in equation 13, is

2⋅S
t x' ,critical = − (14)
a+ − a−

Substituting into equation 13 and solving yields the adjusted minimum

entrance time for a given entrance distance:

2⋅S
'
tenter ( s) = (15)
a+ − a−

Combing equation 4 and 15, minimum entrance time is

2 ⋅ Senter
tenter = tr +                     (16)
a+ − a−

Calculation Method of All-red time

In summary, all-red time can be calculated with the following equations:

W +L 2 ⋅ Senter
r = texit - tenter = - (tr + )                                      (17)
Vexit a+ - a-

Model Parameters Estimation

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 803
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Equation 17 include parameters of the driver behavior model: Vexit, tr, a-, a+, so
the formula is more complex, it is concluded that the all-red time with its
simplification is appropriate. For Vexit, through movements equal to the posted speed,
left turn movements refer to the 80 percent of posted speed. For tr parameter, it
should be set to zero because the model was developed basing on aggressive drivers.
For (a+- a-), a value in the range of 2.5 to 3m/s2 is suggested. For Senter, if its measure
value less than 6m, Senter is not used in all-red time calculations.
All-red time based on traffic conflict method leads to more realistic clearance
interval that are safe but not too large, which is important for traffic operations and for
promoting respect of traffic laws. The all-red time should not be less than 0.5 seconds
and would normally be limited to 3.0 seconds. The determination of the all-red time
should be based on the equation 17 noted above.
CONCLUSIONS
This paper presents a method to determine all-red interval based on traffic
conflict zone avoiding crashes between an exiting traffic and an entering traffic. The
method is more realistic, reflecting intersection geometry. It takes into account both
exit and the entrance time. The main focus was on the calculation of entrance times. A
simple driver model was developed that involves limit parameters numbers. Further
research is recommended to the applicability of the model and values.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors acknowledge that this paper was sponsored by Basic Scientific
Research Operation Cost Special Fund of Central University and Natural Sciences
Foundation of Hohai University based on research project 2084/40924.
REFERENCES
Eccles, K.A. and H.W. McGee. (2001). “A History of the Yellow and All-Red
Intervals for Traffic Signals, Executive Summary.” Washington, DC: ITE.
Lum, K.M., Tan,Y.W. (2003). Driver Response at a Signalized T-intersection During
an Amber Blackout. Transportation Research Part F 6. 2003: 183-195
Muller, Dijker& furth. (2004). “Red clearance intervals: theory and practice.” TRB
2004 Annual Meeting CD-ROM.
Reginald R. Souleyrette, Molly M. O’Brien. (2004). “Effectiveness of All-Red
Clearance Interval on Intersection Crashes”. MN/RC-2004-26 Final Report.
Wong Yiik, Gon Pin Kai. (2001). “Perception Braking Response Time of Unalerted
Drivers at Signalized Intersection.” ITE Journal, 73-76.
Yuan, L., Lu, J. (2005). “Research on Diagnostic Method of Highway Intersection
Safety”. International Road Safety Seminar, Beijing, China. 348-340.
Yuan, L., Lu, J. (2008). “Safety Evaluation and Improvements for Highway
Intersections”. Journal of the Transportation Research Record No. 2060.
46-48.
Yuan, L., Zhang, Q. (2009). “Impact of on Traffic Signal Countdown Displays on
Driver Behavior.” The Second International Conference on Transportation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 804
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Engineering. Chengdu, China. 4176-4179.

Yuan, L., Lu, J. (2009). “The Research of Unintentional Red Running Violation
Owing to Dilemma Zone.” 2009 Second International Conference on
Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation, Volume IV. Zhangjiajie,
China. 708-710.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 805
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Forecast of Traffic Safety Based on Fuzzy Generalized Neural Network

Sha ZHOU1, Gongliang JIANG1, Yong HUANG1

1
Chongqing Key Laboratory of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Chongqing Jiaotong
University, P.O. Box 213 Chongqing Jiaotong University, City, Chongqing 400074; PH (86)
13114058224; FAX (86) 023-68662112; email: agenlsa@hotmail.com

Abstract: Considering a number of factors affecting traffic safety, the

predetermination model for traffic safety of fuzzy generalized neural network was
built in this paper. This was a combination of neural networks with fuzzy
algorithms, through the study of present road safety situations in China, and the
summary of domestic and broad documents. This method was based on MATLAB
programming, and fuzzy revised generalized learning vector quantization modeling;
fuzzy generalized neural networks had to be used to cope with subjective factors in
traffic accident prediction and improve the computations of the predetermination
model for traffic safety. The theoretical analysis and experimental results indicated
that the model was effective for the good function of nonlinear mapping and
generalization，and can be applied to forecast traffic accident suitably.

ⅠINTRODUCTION

Road safety is a vague concept, that is to say, it’s connotation and extension is
ambiguous, thus it is difficult to determine a clear and reasonable boundary between
security and insecurity [3]. Unsafe matter on the roads, known as traffic accidents are
caused by the imbalance of dynamic traffic systems composed of people, vehicles,
roads, the environment, and management, all of which are part of a particular
traffic environment. People, vehicles, roads, environment, and management, are the
basic factors of affecting traffic safety. Traffic accidents are the result of several factors.
Only a variety of factors can be considered. Reasonable measures can be
established to prevent road traffic accidents. Artificial neural network as a parallel
settlement model have more advantages than the previous models have. It has
achieved remarkable results in many practical fields. The accuracy of accident
prediction models that used BP network are higher than the traditional methods. BP
neural network has been successfully used in many pattern prediction problems [2].
The drawback of BP neural network is the slow convergence and the local minor.
Hence, the results are not satisfactory when it comes to smaller samples and noise
problems. Generalized fuzzy neural network (GFNN) was used to predict road traffic
accident in this paper. GFNN network was trained with fuzzy generalized learning
vector quantization (FGLVQ) algorithm that made the training process tend to global
optima. The comparative analyses of the various forecasting methods are presented
in table 1.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 806
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Table 1. Comparative Analysis of Road Traffic Accident Forecasting Method.

Prediction
Features Scope
Categories
The model is based on causality and
time-series, mainly. It cannot reflect the When a small amount of
inherent and complex properties of the investigation was added, it was
General
able to be forecasted. Then
approach forecasting dynamic data roundly and these methods could be
constitutionally. It will lose the amount of considered.
information easily.
It had an excellent nonlinear mapping
ability and low expectation of the
structure, parameters, and dynamic It was better with continuous
characteristics related to modeling urban transport development
ANN
objects. It just needed the object input and policies when there was
complete historical data.
output data; it can be finished through the
learning function of the completion of the
network itself.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 807
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Artificial neural network and fuzzy systems are based on fuzzy theory; both have
used numerical methods to estimate nonlinear mapping relationship between the
input and output. None of them used mathematical modeling. Different to the
traditional symbol methods and modeling methods, they obtained certain nonlinear
dynamic control solutions by the adaptive dynamic method. The membership
functions and fuzzy weights had to be precisely established in fuzzy algorithm, and
this process was completed adaptively in neural network. BP algorithm, based on
the rules of gradient descent, received local minimization too easily and converged
slowly. Solving global minimums of complex nonlinear equations was regarded as
the target in BP algorithm. This algorithm itself was a method in local optimum
searching. The training process was to essentially get the minima of a nonlinear
function. The training would have failed because of the local optimization. The
training strengthening and learning ability may have been decreased. Over fitting
may have occurred as well.

In regard to the research method, this paper dealt with the accuracy improvement of
traffic accident prediction by GFNN, combining fuzzy system theory and neural
network. The learning algorithm of this combined modeling is fuzzy generalized
learning vector quantization algorithm (FGLVQ).

ⅡFGLVQ

STRUCTURE OF FGLVQ

A neuron is defined as follows:

If Xi is input of the ith fuzzy logic neuron, and ωi ∈ [0,1] is corresponding weight,

where i=1,2,…,n, and θ is a threshold value. Function f is defined by

⎧ 1 g ( x) ≥ 1
⎪
y = f ( g ( x)) = f (V (ωi Λxi ) − θ ) = ⎨ g ( x) 0 < g ( x) < 1
⎪ 0 g ( x) > 0
⎩ (1)

Sample vector x ∈ X , V = { V1 , V2 ,......Vr } ⊂ R n is the current clustering center. The

weighted error function L(x, V ) and mathematical expectation L(V) [6] are

defined respectively by
L(x, V ) = ∑ u r x − v r
2
（2）
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 808
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L(V) = ∫ L( x,V ) f ( x)dx

Rn
（3）

Where ur = ur(x)，r=1,2,…c. It is the weight of sample X which belongs to the Rth

category. f(x) is the probability distribution density function when X belongs to space
Rn. If x belongs to X and x − v r
2
= min x − v r , Vr will be called winning unit.
2

Usually the corresponding weight of the winning unit Vr is set to one, and the
non-winning unit ui is a non-negative number less than one. Fig.1 shows the
structure of a fuzzy logic neuron.

Figure 1.A fuzzy logic neuron.

The structure block diagram of GFNN is given in Fig.2. Input vector X is a factor set
in layer 1. Input U i of layer 2 equals to fuzzy membership degree of input in layer 1,
and it indicates the membership degree of of ith factors. ωi , between layer 2 and
layer 3, is the required weight. The fourth layer is a fuzzy logic operation, and the
last layer is the output bj, j=1,2,…c..
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 809
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Figure 2. The structure block diagram of GFNN.

FUZZY MEMBERSHIP FUNCTION

Let us first consider the simplified case. A simple and effective membership function
will be defined in order to reduce calculations. Non-linear membership function is
defined as
ui ( x) = g ( x i ) = sin π xi / 2( L − 1) (4)
, and linear membership function is defined by
ui ( x) = g ( x i ) = xi / ( L − 1) (5)

Fuzzy membership function ur(x) is defined as

x − vi
2

(
ur ( x) = p x − vr
2
) D
,r ≠ i (6)

, where the equation for agsigning the values of D is

D = ∑ j =1 x − v j
c 2
(7)

(
p x − vr
2
) Represents generalized fuzzy membership degree corresponding to
current input vector Vr. p(z) is a monotonically decreasing function of z. p(z) meets
conditions: P(0)=1, p(z) =1 /z, lim p(z)=0. It can be defined by
z→∞

p ( z ) = (1 + α z ) , p ( z ) = exp(− β z ), p( z ) = (1 − γ z ) [1] [3]. At this time quantization

−1

error function [6] is defined by

x − vr
2

( ) x−v
c
L( x, V ) = x − vr + − ∑ p x − vr
2 2 2
r (8)
D r ≠i

The Input vector X i is mapped into interval [0,1) via generalized fuzzy
membership function. The Input vector is converted into fuzzy membership degree
via fuzzy set membership function. Then the precise input is changed into fuzzy
quantity. That is the fuzzying input vector. Afterward, the vague language will be
converted into precise numerical values. That is anti-fuzzying output vector.

The iteration coefficients of FGLVQ have a good upper and lower bounds. It can
solve the "Scale" problem of generalized learning vector quantization algorithm
(GLVQ). The fuzzy learning vector quantization algorithm (FLVQ) is sensitive to the
initial learning rate, however, FGLVQ is not. The learning of reference vectors by
FGLVQ can avoid these problems [5]. Learning then ensues, as defined in [5].
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 810
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Ⅲ THE PROCESS OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENT PREDICTION

Using the method of FGLVQ, by establishing the China traffic safety model, and
adapting the data coming from China statistical yearbook (1995-2008), the number
of traffic accidents can be predicted. Seven factors related to road traffic accident that
stored in the matrix X are the input variables, and the number of traffic accidents is
output variables. The fuzzy rule database is established according to the rule table.
This provides numerous learning samples for FGLVQ.

In summary, the combined predetermination model GFNN via FGLVQ learning

algorithm is a six-step process.
(1) Selecting an input pattern. The target forecasted area and the prediction year
should be confirmed first.
(2) Collecting traffic data. The factors related to road traffic accidents are determined.
If the historian accident data can be obtained, more information can be received.
Generally, appropriate data will be collected when the acquisition cost is taken into
account.
(3) Applying the combination model. Each parameter is unitized firstly, and then it is
hazed.
(4) Learning the parameters with FGLVQ. Afterward, the weights will be revised
until they are stable.
(5) Anti-fuzzy output.
(6) Submiting the forecasted results.

Figure 3.The process of traffic saftey prediction.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 811
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Ⅳ RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Using the above combination method, GFNN, in the specific calculation of traffic
safety prediction.

The target region is China. The following seven historical statistical data are
regarded as impact factors, according to the analysis of the above factors results:
population, number of motor vehicles, highway mileage, passenger and freight
transport, passenger turnovers, and freight turnovers. The number of road traffic
accidents is the output factor. GFNN is constructed.

The output of GFNN function represents function S. Each parameter is unitized and
hazed before the imitative learning because of the output values ranging between
zero and one.

MATLAB was used for debugging in this paper. The maximum number of learning
was 2,000 times, and the rate of learning was 0.05. The learning goal was the sum of
squares of errors, which was 0.001. The initial value of the network connection
weight was a random number that belonged to the space [-1,1]. FGLVQ was used in
the network learning algorithm, and then GFNN was used to simulate. The relative
predicted error was 0.01%. Consequently, these were satisfying results.

The data from 1995 to 2003 was the training sample of network. The sample data
from 2004 to 2008 was extrapolated in the prediction test. The sample data is shown
in Table 2.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 812
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Table 2. The Sample Data.

Number
Number
Highway Passenger Freight Passenger Freight of Road
Year Population of
Mileage Transport Transport Turnovers Turnovers Traffic
Vehicles
Accidents
billion
million billion billion ton
units million million billion person thousand
miles tons -kilometers
-kilometers
1995 1211.21 25.35 1.16 11.73 12.35 900.19 3590.90 271.84
1996 1223.89 28.73 1.19 12.45 12.98 916.48 3659.00 287.69
1997 1236.26 34.34 1.23 13.26 12.78 1005.55 3838.50 304.22
1998 1247.61 40.90 1.28 13.79 12.67 1063.67 3808.90 346.13
1999 1257.86 49.10 1.35 13.94 12.93 1129.98 4056.80 412.86
2000 1267.43 57.77 1.40 14.79 13.59 1226.10 4432.10 616.97
2001 1276.27 65.26 1.70 15.34 14.02 1315.51 4771.00 755.00
2002 1284.53 82.27 1.77 16.08 14.83 1412.57 5068.60 773.00
2003 1292.27 94.92 1.81 15.88 15.65 1381.05 5385.90 667.51
2004 1299.88 104.79 1.87 17.68 17.06 1630.91 6944.50 567.75
2005 1307.56 117.55 3.35 18.47 18.62 1746.67 8025.80 450.25
2006 1314.48 124.95 3.46 20.24 20.37 1919.72 8884.00 378.78
2007 1321.29 137.92 3.58 22.28 22.76 2159.26 10141.90 327.21
2008 1328.02 169.89 3.73 23.96 24.45 2330.47 10345.35 265.20
Source: NBS, China statistical Yearbook, various years.

Fig.4 shows the network training process. Inspection of Fig. 5-7 indicates the results
of fit training, residual, and relative error respectively. The predictive absolute
value of the maximum relative error is 5.2755*10-7, and the average of absolute
relative deviation (AARD) is 2.6021*10-9 in the road traffic accident
predetermination model.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 813
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Fig4. the network training process. Fig5. The output value compared with original
data.

Fig 6. Residual curve. Fig 7. relative error curve.

The above figures illustrate that GFNN has a great learning ability. The prediction
results and the actual data are compared, and the accuracy of predictions is
assessed. It is found that the GFNN model gives an accurate prediction. The
estimation results approximately approach detective values. The results of training
and extrapolation prediction via GFNN, indicates that the forecasted value has a
better fit with the actual value, and the error rate is only 0.01%. The comparison of
the simulated results with the original data shows that the model GFNN has good
generalization ability, and the error meets prediction accuracy. Therefore, GFNN can
be used to forecast traffic accident.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 814
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Ⅴ CONCLUSION

Fuzzy logic system is easy to understand, and neural network has very strong
adaptive abilities. A hybrid of Fuzzy and GLVQ modeling GFNN for forecasting
traffic safety has been put forward in this paper. The ambiguity of road traffic safety
was taken into account in membership degree of fuzzy mathematics. The maximum
membership degree has two fundamental flaws: only extremes are considered, and
it is easy to lose the middle of the information. Comprehensive consideration of
various factors on the impact of road traffic accident can overcome the deficiencies.
Moreover, network training via GFNN requires neither a large number of samples,
nor many manual adjustable parameters. The Gaussian smoothing factor only need
be estimated in the training. Thus, prediction is more objective, accurate, and faster
than the ordinary approach.

In conclusion, the combination of Fuzzy logic system and neural model GFNN is
feasible in traffic safety predictions, with high precision, strong fault tolerance, and
strong self-adapting characteristics. GFNN provides a new approach for forecasting
road accident, which has strong practical significance.

Ⅵ ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The authors would like to acknowledge the helpful comments by the anonymous
referees and the editorial comments which contributed to the improvement of the
final version of the paper.

Ⅶ REFERENCES

[1] Karayiannis N B, Pai P 1(1996). “Fuzzy Algorithms for Learning Vector

Quantization”. IEEE Trans. on Neural Networks, NewYork, 7(5): 1196-1211
[2] LI Juan, Shao Chunfu(2006). “Traffic Accident Forecast Model Based on BP
Neural Network”. Traffic and Computer.Wuhan, 24(2): 34-37.
[3] LIU Yuntong(1995). “the Macro-evaluation of Road Safety”. China Journal of
Highway, Xian, Sup1, 158
[4] Pal N R，Bezdek J C，Tsao E C K(1993). “Generalized Clustering Network
and Kohonens Self-organizing Schemes”. IEEE Trans. Neural Network.
NewYork, 4(4): 549-557
[5] Tsuyoshi Fukumoto, Tetsushi Wakabayashi, Fumitaka Kimura, and Yasuji Miyake.
“Accuracy Improvement of Handwritten Character Recognition by GLVQ”,
paper-068-TsuyoshiFukumoto
[6] ZHOU Shuisheng, ZHOU Lihua(2003), “Revised GLVQ Algorithm”. Computer
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 815
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Engineering, Shanghai, 29(13),35.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 816
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Research on Relationship between Operating Speed and Posted Speed Limit for
Mountainous Freeway

Lijin WANG 1, Yulong HE 2 ,Shaofei WANG 3

1
Key Lab of Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing,
100124, P.R.China; Phone:010-67393013; Email:stangle@126.com
2
Associate professor , Key Lab of Transportation Engineering , Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing, 100124, P.R. China; Phone:010-67391597;
Email:ylhe@bjut.edu.cn
3
Key Laboratory of Tunnel Construction & Maintenance Technology, China
Merchants Chongqing Communications Research & Design Institute Co.，Ltd，
Chongqing 400067，China；Email:wangshaofei2001@163.com

ABSTRACT
Setting reasonable speed limits is an efficient measure to improve the safety
of freeways in mountainous areas. Twenty-five typical sections randomly selected
from Xihan Freeway and Qinglian Freeway in China were investigated. On the basis
of analyzing the data of 25 sections, speed distributions for cars and trucks under
different speed limits were obtained. The correlation between operating speed and
posted speed limit of mountainous freeways is analyzed. By means of regression
analysis, the relationship model between the 85th percentile speed and posted speed
limit, 50th percentile speed and posted speed limit, 15th percentile speed and posted
speed limit are established respectively. The regression analysis of posted speed
limits and operating speeds shows that there exists a strong linear relationship
between these two speed concepts. The 15th percentile speed model is the best
fitting model among the three.

1. INTRODUCTION
With the development of the mountainous areas in China, the importance of
the freeway to national economics and social development in the mountainous areas
is increasingly obvious. However, the freeway also has its negative effects, which
include a high motor vehicle crash (MVC) and fatality rate record due to speeding.
Every year motor vehicle traffic accidents in China caused by speeding total more
than 3 million，accounting for 8% of the total traffic accidents. The fatalities of
traffic accidents have been up to 9,000, accounting for more than 11% of the total
(Guozhu CHENG.2008). Compared with ordinary highways, the safety issues of
mountainous area freeways are more prominent because of their challenging terrain.
Setting a posted speed limit, which could balance travel efficiency with
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 817
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safety, is an important part of the freeway safety management in the mountainous

areas. Two common methods have been used to set system-wide speed limits:
statutory limits and optimum speed limits (Milliken et al. 1998). Setting speed limits
in speed zones often uses a tradition method which is to adjust the statutory speed
limit according to roadway factors. The relationship between posted speed limit and
operating speed is one of the main factors in determining the appropriate speed limit
in a speed zone. However, references and standards of freeway posted speed limits
have not yet been set up in China. In addition, due to many differences in driver
behaviors and vehicle components and road construction conditions of all countries,
some research conclusions abroad still can not been used directly. So it is necessary
to develop a wide range of investigation in China to study the inherent relationship
between operating speed and posted speed limit.

2. SPEED DATA COLLECTION

Seventeen sites from Xihan Freeway of Shanxi Province and eight sites from
Qinglian Freeway of Guangdong Province were selected. Sites were selected to
make sure there was no automated enforcing instrument, such as photo radar, in use.
The speed data were collected for passenger cars and trucks during daylight, off-
peak traffic periods, and under dry-weather conditions. A sufficient number of
vehicle speeds were observed so as to elimate statistical sampling error. At least 150
observations were recorded at each site in order to assure an adequate sample size
with a 95% confidence level under free-flowing traffic conditions. The sample size
requirements for the 85th percentile speed were determined by the following
equation (D.R. Jessen et al. 2001).

σ 2 K 2 (2 + u 2 )
N= where,
2E 2
N = minimum number of measured speeds;
σ = estimated sample standard deviation ( ±8.5 km/h);
K = constant corresponding to the desired confidence level (1.96);
E = permitted error in the average speed estimation ( ±1.6 km/h); and
u = constant corresponding to the 85 desired percentile speed (1.04).
The speed data were collected using a MetroCount5600. Furthermore, the
devices were concealed as much as possible when taking speed readings to prevent
drivers from being influenced. Free-flow vehicles were determined using a
minimum headway of five seconds between vehicles (A. Polus et al. 2001). Vehicles
that were not at free-flow speed were not included in the sample.
3. ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
MetroCount ARX Classification Scheme divides vehicles into 12 types, but
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 818
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JTG B01-2003 divides vehicles into 3 types. It is obvious that these two
classification schemes are not consistent. Convenient for the study, this paper
combines the two classification schemes, using a wheelbase of 3.8 meters as
classification criteria. Vehicles are divided into passenger cars (wheelbase less than
or equal to 3.8 meters) and trucks (wheelbase no less than 3.8 meters). Additionally,
a hypothesis is made: the speed limit is the only factor that determines the operating
speed.
Vehicle speed distributions for different speed limits
1) Speed distributions of cars
The representative sites of Xihan Freeway with 60 km/h and 80 km/h speed
limits and Qinglian Freeway with 100 km/h speed limit were selected to map the
operating speed distributions of cars. The plots show that the operating speeds of
cars follow a normal distribution. So the histogram is omitted, and normal
distribution fitting frequency curves were obtained.

5% Site1 SL=60
4%
Site2 SL=60
4%
Site3 SL=60
3%
Site4 SL=80
3%
Site5 SL=80
2%
2% Site6 SL=80

1% Site7 SL=100
1% Site8 SL=100
0% Site9 SL=100
0.00 30.00 60.00 90.00 120.00 150.00

Figure 1. Speed distributions of cars for different speed limits.

Figure 1 shows that the overall distributions of operating speed move to the
right of the axes as the posted speed limits increases. When the average speed
increases, the degree of dispersion is greater. The mean speeds are 59.07km /h (Site
1), 58.39 km / h (Site 2) and 51.34 km / h (Site 3) respectively at sites with 60-kph
posted speed limit. The mean speeds are 77.90km /h (Site 4), 88.92km / h (Site 5)
and 78.48 km / h (Site 6) respectively at sites with 80-kph posted speed limit. While
at the sites with 100-kph posted speed limit, the mean speeds are 92.67km /h (Site 7),
99.90km / h (Site 8) and 98.65 km / h (Site 9) respectively.

2) Speed distributions of trucks

Using the same methodology as for cars, the representative sites of Xihan
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 819
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Freeway with 50-kph and 60-kph speed limits and Qinglian Freeway with 80-kph
and 100-kph speed limits were selected to map the operating speed distributions of
trucks.

site1 SL=50 site2 SL=50 site1 SL=80 site2 SL=80

site3 SL=50 site4 SL=60 site3 SL=80 site4 SL=100
site5 SL=60 site5 SL=100 site6 SL=100
5%
3%
5%
4% 3%
4%
2%
3%
3% 2%
2%
2% 1%
1% 1%
1%
0% 0%
0.00 30.00 60.00 90.00 120.00 0.00 30.00 60.00 90.00 120.00

Figure 2. Speed distributions of trucks Figure 3. Speed distributions of trucks

for 60-kph and 50-kph speed limits. for 60-kph and 80-kph speed limits.

Figure 2 and Figure 3 show that truck speed distributions and the degree of
dispersion generally increase with the increasing of speed limits. Unlike the
operating speed distribution of cars, interweave phenomena exist in the operating
speed distributions of trucks for different speed limits. This suggests that besides
speed limits, other factors affect the mountainous freeway truck speed distribution，
which causes unique speed distributions for this kind of roads. The finding is not
consistent with the hypothesis in this paper that that speed limit is the only factor
that determines the operating speed. Therefore, the relationship between operating
speed and posted speed limits of cars is built only in the following passage.

Relationship model between posted speed limits and operating speed

The 85th percentile speed, 50th percentile speed and 15th percentile speed are
renowned representations of operating speed. Accordingly, we extracted each free-
speed sample’s 85th percentile speed, 50th percentile speed , and 15th percentile speed
using the statistical method as each site’s operating speed. Table 1 presents a
summary of the site statistics, including the mean, standard deviation (SD), posted

speed limits ( PSL ), 85th percentile speed ( V85 ) all for cars and trucks.

Table 1. Summary statistics for investigating sites.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 820
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Car Car Truck Truck PSL /

Car Truck
site NO. mean V85 / SD/kph
mean
V85 /kph SD/kph
kph
(kph) kph /kph Car Truck
Xihan 1 76.26 95 17.55 63.71 76 12.46 80 60
Xihan 2 72.99 91 16.14 58.84 70 76.30 80 60
Xihan 3 64.65 85 19.29 55.45 67 70.30 80 60
Xihan 4 77.80 94 16.30 60.85 76 66.50 80 60
Xihan 5 77.90 92 15.05 60.21 75 75.78 80 60
Xihan 6 88.92 110 21.10 62.32 83 74.77 80 80
Xihan 7 78.48 95 17.30 57.20 75 82.57 80 80
Xihan 8 65.05 86 19.30 49.24 63 75.03 80 80
Xihan 9 58.39 71 12.41 49.53 61 63.20 60 50
Xihan 10 74.70 97 20.46 60.43 78 61.31 60 50
Xihan 11 51.34 62 10.19 44.73 55 77.86 60 50
Xihan 12 83.58 109 24.65 66.44 86 54.60 60 50
Xihan 13 71.10 91 17.43 59.46 74 86.44 60 50
Xihan 14 67.25 87 17.61 67.25 73 73.70 60 50
Xihan 15 59.07 70 11.31 59.07 62 72.60 60 50
Xihan 16 53.01 77 21.39 34.94 45 62.35 60 60
Xihan 17 50.98 64 10.59 45.40 51 44.90 60 60
Qinglian 1 92.83 113 18.39 79.18 97 51.01 100 80
Qinglian 2 94.33 118 23.69 81.82 101 97.41 100 80
Qinglian 3 91.90 115 21.75 81.49 102 101.00 100 80
Qinglian 4 92.67 109 16.53 81.02 98 101.65 100 100
Qinglian 5 99.26 119 19.00 84.92 106 98.02 100 100
Qinglian 6 99.90 119 19.60 86.10 108 106.19 100 100
Qinglian 7 98.65 115 16.69 80.03 98 107.90 100 100
Qinglian 8 105.84 128 21.03 77.91 91 97.80 100 80

By contrasting posted speed limits value and the 85th percentile speed value
in Table 1, for cars it can be seen that all of the 85th percentile speeds exceed their
corresponding posted speed limits. For trucks, most of the 85th percentile speeds
exceed the posted speed limits. As is mentioned above, the speed data for trucks are
not consistent with the hypothesis that speed limit is the only factor that determines
the operating speed. Therefore, the regression model between operating speed and
posted speed limits of cars is built only below.
1) Regression model between 85th percentile speeds and posted speed limits
Figure 4 is drawn by the data obtained from each site’s posted speed limits
and its corresponding 85th percentile speed in Table 1. Regression analysis will be
conducted so as to model speed limits and 85th percentile speeds on mountainous
freeways.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 821
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140

85th percentile speeds /kph

120
100
80
60
Original Data
40 PSL
20 Regression

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Existing Posted Speed Limits(km/h)

Figure 4. Relation curve between 85th percentile speed and posted speed limit.

The relation curve between 85th percentile speeds and posted speed limits is
given in Figure 4. And the best fit regression model is found to be:
2
V85 = 0.8977 PSL + 25.387 ( R =0.6552) (1)

where V85 is 85th percentile speeds and PSL is Posted Speed Limits.

Equation 1 indicates that the relationship between 85th percentile speeds and
posted speed limits is linear, which is consistent with research results of NCHRP
Report 504.
2) Regression model between 50th percentile speed and posted speed limit
The relation curve between 50th percentile speeds and posted speed limits is
given in Figure 5 and the best fit regression model is found to be:
2
V50 = 0..9341PSL + 2.9777 ( R =0.7549) (2)

where V50 is 50th percentile speeds and PSL is Posted Speed Limits.

Equation 2 indicates that the relationship between 50th percentile speeds and
posted speed limits is linear, which is also consistent with research results of
NCHRP Report 504. Equation 2 suggests that as the posted speed limits increase, the
50th percentile speeds are expected to increase by approximately the same amount.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 822
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50th percentile speeds /kph

120
100 Original Data
PSL
80
Regression
60
40
20
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Existing Posted Speed Limits/kph

Figure 5. Relationship between 50th percentile speeds and posted speed limits.

3) Regression model between 15th percentile speeds and posted speed limits
The relation curve between 15th percentile speeds and posted speed limits is
given in Figure 6 and the best fit regression model is found to be:
V15 = 0..7937 PSL − 4.3143 ( R 2 =0.759) (3)

where V15 is 15th percentile speed and PSL is Posted Speed Limits.

Equation 3 indicates that the relationship between 15th percentile speeds and
posted speed limits is linear, which is also consistent with research results of
NCHRP Report 504.
15th percentile speeds /kph

120

100
Original Data
80 PSL
Regression
60
40

20
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Existing Posted Speed Limits/kph

Figure 6. Relationship between 15th percentile speeds and posted speed limits.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 823
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4. CONCLUSIONS
The statistical analysis clearly demonstrates that there is a strong relationship
between the posted speed and the operating speed. The 85th percentile speeds exceed
posted speed limits. The 50th percentile speed is near or slightly over or below the
posted speed limits. The 15th percentile speed is below the posted speed limits. The
operating speed increases as the speed limits is raised. In terms of the overall model
goodness of fit (based on R 2 values), the 15th percentile speed model is the best
model among the three. An increase in the posted speed limits results in an increase
in the operating speeds.
It would be possible to develop mathematical models for other classes of
roadways, such as first-class highways and rural two-lane highways based on the
same approach proposed in this research to investigate the relationship between
their operating speeds and posted speed limits. Moreover, the investigated sites
should be added to collect data including most types of roadway and various levels
of posted speed limits information in later research, thus providing a good basis for
other related research.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was conducted at the Beijing University of Technology and was
funded by the Western Region Transportation Science and Technology Projects
under Grant: 200731800027.

REFERENCES
A. Polus, K. Fitzpatrick, and D. Fambro(2001). “Predicting Operating Speeds on
Tangent Sections of Two-Lane Rural Highways”, Transportation Research
Record No. 1737. Washington, D.C.
CHENG Guozhu, PEI Yulong (2008).“Analysis on Characteristic of 85th Percentile
Speed and Suggestion on Speed Limit of Freeway. ” ， Highway
Engineering, 2008, (01), 62-66.
D.R. Jessen, K.S. Schurr, P.T. McCoy, G. Pesti (2001).“Operating Speed on Crest
Vertical Curves on Rural Two-Lane Highway in Nebraska”,
Transportation Research Board, 80th Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C.
Fitzpatrick, K. (2003). “Design speed, operating speed, and posted speed practices.”
NCHRP Report 504, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Milliken, G. M. (1998). Managing speed: review of current practice for setting and
enforcing speed limits.” Special Report 254, TRB, National Research
Council, Washington, D.C.
Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China. (2004). Technical Standard
of Highway Engineering (JTG B01-2003).China Communications Press.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 824
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Study on the Effects of Speed Camera

Feng LU1 Zuohong CHENG2

1
Beijing Transportation Engineering Key Laboratory, Beijing University of Technology,
Chinese People’s Public Security University, P.O. Box 100038, Beijing, P. R. China; PH
(86) 10- 83906102; FAX (86)10-83906104; email: lufeng@cppsu.edu.cn
2
Beijing Traffic Management Bureau, P.O. Box 100036, Beijing, P. R. China; FAX
(86)10-68399640; email: canxue0103@sohu.com

ABSTRACT
Speeding is a kind of common illegal behavior among drivers, and is also one of the
primary reasons causing traffic accidents and so the speed management takes on great
importance. As the effect of traditional speed control measures is not significant, the
speed camera is introduced as a new-style speed control device with the development of
high-tech. Many overseas reports show that the effect of speed camera is excellent,
especially on the expressway. However, there are only a few studies on the effect of speed
camera in China. It bears highly theoretical and practical sense to analyze systematically
the effects on reducing speed of the speed camera.
This paper takes an urban expressway in Beijing as studying object, and
explores the effects on speed control of speed-limit sign, rumble strip and speed camera.
The result shows the favorable effect of speed camera on speed control.
INTRODUCTION
Speeding is one of the primary reasons of traffic accidents, and brings great harm
to human life and property safety. In the year 2007, the number of traffic accidents caused
by speeding, the death and the injury were respectively 10.23%, 14.06% and 9.63% of the
total traffic accidents in China. It is very important to control vehicle speed and prevent
traffic accidents by speeding.
Traditional speed control devices, such as speed-limit signs and rumble strips,
don’t achieve ideal effects in terms of speed control. Speed camera, with its features of 24
hours’ application and wide controlling field, is generally used to detect vehicle speeding
both in China and overseas.
In the domain of effect analysis of reducing speed by speed camera, methods of
trace study and comparative analysis are mainly used by researchers abroad. Many
overseas reports show that, in the aspect of reducing vehicle speed and traffic accident
frequency, the effect of speed camera is excellent (Keall et al., 2001, Hess et al., 2003,
Retting et al., 2003, Cunningham et al., 2005).
However, there are only a few of studies on the effect of speed camera in China.
Some issues, such as improving speed detection mode and precision, using speed-limit
signs effectively as well as the effect analysis of reducing traffic accident frequency by
speed camera are mainly explored (Zhang et al., 2003, Wang, 1996, Tang, 2005).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 825
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In the circumstance that more and more speed cameras have been used, it bears
highly theoretical and practical sense to analyze systematically the effect on reducing
speed of speed camera.
This paper takes an urban expressway in Beijing as the studying object. Three
types of survey sections that are mounted with speed-limit signs, rumble strips and a
speed camera are selected, the speed data of each survey section above are gathered, and a
comparative analysis of the effect on speed control of these speed-limited devices is done.
The result shows the favorable effect of speed camera on speed control.
SELECTION OF SURVEY SPOTS AND COLLECTION OF DATA
In this paper, three types of survey sections that are mounted with speed-limit
signs, rumble strips and a speed camera respectively are selected as the studying object.
The survey spots are set up in every section where instantaneous speed of passing
vehicles is surveyed and recorded. In such a way, the effect on speed control of different
measures is analyzed.
SELECTION OF SURVEY SPOTS
The survey section of the speed camera is in Beizhan Rd., which has 3 lanes in
each direction, and is 1,850 meters long. Along with Beizhan Rd. there are Beizhandong
Bridge, Beizhanzhong Bridge, Beizhanxi Bridge and 2 pedestrian over bridges, with the
distance between every pair of neighboring bridges about 100 meters. Under
Beizhanzhong Bridge, 2 sets of speed cameras are mounted for each direction. In order to
collect speed data, 10 survey spots are selected, as illustrated in Figure 1.Spot C is the
location of speed camera, spot A is 200 meters and spot B 100 meters ahead of the speed
camera, and spot D is 100 meters and spot E 200 meters behind the speed camera in the
direction from east to west. By the same token, on the other side of the road, spot H is the
location of speed camera, spot F and spot G are 200 meters and 100 meters respectively
ahead of the camera, spot I and spot J 100 meters and 200 meters respectively behind the
camera in the direction from west to east.

Figure 1. Survey Spots in Beizhan Rd.

The survey section of speed-limit signs is selected as the studying object in
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 826
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Jiuzhong Rd. of Daxing District. This road, with a speed limit of 50km/h, has no
intersections or curves within 200 meters to both sides of the survey section, and there is
less influence of road geometry. The survey spots are selected in the location of
speed-limit sign, as well as locations of both 100 meters ahead and 100 meters behind the
speed-limit sign.
Similarly, the survey section of rumble strips is selected as the studying object in
Jinyuan Rd. of Daxing District. This road, also with a speed limit of 50km/h, has no
intersections or curves within 200 meters to both sides of survey section, and there is less
influence of road geometry. The survey spots are selected in the location of rumble strip,
as well as locations of both 100 meters ahead and 100 meters behind the rumble strip.
COLLECTION OF SPEED DATA
The speed surveyed is spot speed, which is the instantaneous speed of vehicle
passing a certain location. In this paper, spot speed can be collected by a velocity speed
gun.
The speed surveys were made between 14:30 to 16:00 every day from Jan. to
March of 2008. According to the requirements for spot speed surveys, the sample size of
the survey is more than 144. Considering the low traffic in Jiuzhong Rd. and Jinyuan Rd.,
the sample size of 50 is preferred. The actual samples are 162, 66 and 55 respectively in
the survey sections of speed camera, speed-limit sign and rumble strip.
EFFECT ANALYSIS OF SPEED CONTROL BY SPEED CAMERA
Statistical test is made to ensure the rationality of surveyed speed data. A
comparative analysis is done to examine the effect on speed control of speed-limit sign,
rumble strip and speed camera. After comparing the speed characteristics of 10 survey
spots in Beizhan Rd., the effect of speed camera on speed control is determined.
STATISTICAL TEST OF SPOT SPEED
By using K-S statistical test, the spot speed data collected are sure to be subjected
to normal distribution. Taking spot C in Beizhan Rd. as an example, the result of
statistical test shows, sample N is 162, mean is 55.8, median is 56.0, std. deviation is 4.24,
15th Percentile Speed 52km/h, 50th Percentile Speed 56km/h, 85th Percentile Speed
60km/h, 90th Percentile Speed 61km/h, 95th Percentile Speed 64km/h, see Figure 2.
50

40
Frequency

30

20

10

0
45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0

Spot Spe ed
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 827
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Figure 2. Histogram of Spot Speed with Normal Curve.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF SPEED CONTROL

BETWEEN SPEED-LIMITED DEVICES
By means of comparing the statistical values of speed data in the location of
speed-limited devices, 100 meters ahead and 100 meters behind speed-limited devices,
the effect on speed control of speed-limit sign, rumble strip and speed camera can be
analyzed. The results are showed in Table 1, Table 2 and Table 3.

Table 1. Statistical Analysis Table of Spot Speed in the Location 100 Meters Ahead
of Speed-Limited Devices.
Speed-Limited Device Speed-Limited Sign Rumble Strip Speed Camera
Speed-Limit 50.0 50.0 60.0
Mean 52.0 46.5 58.3
Median 50.0 46.0 58.0
Std. Deviation 6.7 9.3 3.9
50th Percentile Speed 50.0 46.0 58.0
85th Percentile Speed 60.6 56.6 62.0
95th Percentile Speed 63.2 64.0 66.0

Table 2. Statistical Analysis Table of Spot Speed in the Location of Speed-Limited

Devices.
Speed-Limited Device Speed-Limited Sign Rumble Strip Speed Camera
Speed-Limit 50.0 50.0 60.0
Mean 51.1 44.6 55.8
Median 52.0 45.5 56.0
Std. Deviation 6.2 8.4 4.2
50th Percentile Speed 52. 0 45.5 56.0
85th Percentile Speed 57.0 51.5 60.0
95th Percentile Speed 62.0 60.0 64.0

Table 3. Statistical Analysis Table of Spot Speed in the Location 100 Meters
Behind Speed-Limited Devices.
Speed-Limited Device Speed-Limited Sign Rumble Strip Speed Camera
Speed-Limit 50.0 50.0 60.0
Mean 53.7 55.1 48.0
Median 53.0 55.0 48.0
Std. Deviation 6.4 4.2 9.0
50th Percentile Speed 53.0 55.0 48.0
85th Percentile Speed 61.0 60.0 57.0
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 828
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95th Percentile Speed 69.0 62.0 63.8

It shows that, from the tables above, the effect on speed control of speed-limit
signs is very poor. In the location of speed-limit sign, as well as locations of both 100
meters ahead and 100 meters behind the speed-limit sign, mean speed, median speed, and
even 50th percentile speed are all higher than speed limit. Moreover, most values of
its std. deviation are larger than those of speed camera, which indicates speed
discreteness is significant in the section controlled by speed-limit signs, and has the worst
traffic order.
The effect on speed control of rumble strips is better than that of speed-limit sign.
In the location of rumble strip, as well as the location 100 meters ahead of the rumble
strip, mean speed, median speed and 50th percentile speed are lower than speed limit,
in despite of 85th percentile speed exceeding speed limit.
The effect on speed control of speed camera is the best among three speed-limited
devices. In the location of speed camera, as well as locations of both 100 meters ahead
and 100 meters behind the speed camera, mean speed, median speed and 50th percentile
speed are within the speed limit. The values of its std. deviation are lower, which
indicates smaller speed difference. In case of low volume of traffic, it means easy to
choose convenient speed; while in case of high volume of traffic, it means stability of
traffic flow and consistency of vehicle speed.
EFFECT ANALYSIS ON SPEED CONTROL OF SPEED CAMERA
By using statistical analysis method, the speed data collected from 10 spots of
survey section mounted with speed camera are processed, as is summarized in Table 4.
Comparing with the statistical values of spot speed, the effect on speed control of speed
camera can be analyzed.
Table 4. Statistical Analysis Table of Spot Speed in Beizhan Rd.
50th 85th 95th Speed
Survey Mean Std. Percentile Percentile Percentile Abiding
Spots Deviation Speed Speed Speed Ratio
A 56.8 3.9 58 62 66 70%
B 54.9 6.0 55 61 64 82%
C 53.7 4.2 56 60 64 87%
D 56.2 4.3 55 60 62 86%
E 54.7 4.8 57 62 64 77%
F 58.4 5.5 57 63 65.5 65%
G 54.8 5.7 55 61 64 80%
H 55.8 5.4 54.5 59 61.4 86%
I 55.2 4.0 56 61 63 83%
J 56.7 5.2 55 60 64 86%

It shows that, from Table 4, the effect on speed control of speed camera is
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 829
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significant. In the location of speed camera, as well as locations of both 200 meters ahead
and 200 meters behind the speed camera, all of the mean speed values are under 60km/h
with their lower std. deviations. Most values of 85th percentile speed are centralized
at speed limit, which indicates the ideal effect on speed control of speed camera.
In order to illustrate the effect on speed control of speed camera, the mean speed
and speed abiding ratio in both directions are shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4.
It shows in Figure 3 that, wherever from east to west or from west to east, either of
the mean speed line presents the similar trend. It goes down from the location 200 meters
ahead of speed camera, reaches the minimum speed value, and goes up to the normal
value until the location 100 meters behind speed camera. In Figure 4, the speed abiding
ratio goes up from the location 200 meters ahead of speed camera, reaches the maximum
value at the location of speed camera, and goes down to the normal value until the
location 200 meters behind speed camera. The significant impact of speed camera on
vehicle speed is presented directly.
59
58
57
56
speed

55
54
53
52
51
200m ahead 100m ahead speed camera 100m behind 200m behind

east to west west to east

Figure 3. Mean Speed of Both Directions in Beizhan Rd.

90%
85%
speed abiding ratio

80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
200m ahead 100m ahead speed camera 100m behind 100m behind

east to west west to east

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 830
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Figure 4. Speed Abiding Ratio of Both Directions in Beizhan Rd.

CONCLUSION
This paper takes an urban expressway in Beijing as the studying object. The
method of case study being used, effects on speed control of speed camera are explored.
After three types of survey sections that are mounted with speed-limit signs, rumble strips
and a speed camera being selected, relevant survey spots are determined, and spot speeds
of those spots are collected. Methods of statistical analysis being borrowed, some
statistical values of speed data are generated to analyze comparatively the effects on
speed control of speed camera. The results are summarized as follows:
The spot speed of all survey spots are sure to be subjected to a normal distribution.
Among speed-limit signs, rumble strips and a speed camera, the effect on speed
control of speed-limit sign is the worst, whereas the effect on speed control of speed
camera is the best.
In the survey section under control of speed camera, all of mean speed of 10
survey spot are lower than speed limit, the values of their std. deviation are not larger than
6.0, and relevant speed abiding ratio are not lower than 70%.
All the results show the excellent effect on speed control of speed camera in
quantity way.
The primary result of the effects on speed control of speed camera has been
achieved in this paper. However, some issues, such as the rationality of prepositive
distance of speed-limit sign and the influence to speed control effect by the locations of
speed camera, are essential to be studied thoroughly.
REFERENCES
Keall, M. D.，Povey, L. J. and Frith, W. J. (2001). “The relative effectiveness of a
hidden versus a visible speed camera program”. Accident Analysis &
Prevention,2(33);277-284.
Hess, S. and Polak, J. (2003). “An analysis of the effects of speed limit enforcement
cameras on accident rates”. TRB 2003 Annual Meeting:1-5.
Retting, R. A. and Farmer, C. M. (2003). “Evaluation of speed camera enforcement
in the district of Columbia”.TRB 2003 Annual Meeting: 1-11.
Cunningham, C. M., Hummer, J. E. and Moon, J. (2005). “An evaluation of the
safety effects of speed enforcement cameras in Charlotte”. North Carolina,
Final Report: 2-23.
Zhang, K. R. and Li G. F. (2003). “Study on Speed Adjustment to Speed Limit”
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research And Development.20
(5):75-77.
Wang, Z. (1996). “Probing into problems of speed limit & its sign installation for
high-grade highway”. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research
And Development. 13 (2):45-50.
Tang, C. C. (2005).“Speed limit and safety”.Journal of Highway and Transportation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 831
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Research And Development. 22(3):97-100.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 832
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Operation Environment Description Model Based on Alignment

Comprehensive Index of Highway

Ying YAN 1, Yan MA 2, Yuhui ZHANG 3

1
Traffic safety Laboratory, School of Automobile, Chang’an University, Ph. D,
Lecturer, Xi’an PRC, 710064, PH(029)8233-4417; email: yanying2199@sohu.com
2
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Ph. D Candidate, Shanghai
PRC, 201804, PH (021)6958-5413; email: mayan007@163.com
3
Liaoning Communication Survey and Design Institute, MA.Eng, Engineer,
Shenyang PRC, 110005, PH (024)8373-8705; email: lu20009693@126.com

ABSTRACT
Based on the objective safety of road alignment perception, the traditional
single index modeling method of operating speed prediction was modified. Then, the
road alignment comprehensive index was put forward by analyzing the nature of the
operational environment. According to the relationship between the horizontal,
vertical and cross-sectional indices, the operational environment description model
was established by applying the fuzzy comprehensive judgment method. The
significant influencing factors on speed, such as the radius of horizontal curve, the
accumulative corner, the position proportion of the curve, the longitudinal slope and
the cross slope were considered in the model. Using the analytic hierarchy process
the weight of each factor was determined. This model is a research foundation for
operating speed prediction and safety evaluation of highway operation environments.

1. INTRODUCTION
The alignment design plays an important role in road construction. Safety is
the primary factor that needs to be considered in the design and construction. With
the demand for improvements in transportation, the alignment design method based
on design speed can hardly satisfy with the requirements of traffic safety. The theory
of operating speed was introduced in the Highway Alignment Technical Standard
(Version 2003). The use of the operating speed evaluation method was regulated to
improve the technical alignment index or adopt the necessary traffic safety
technology and management on the road segment where the alignment design is
limited by geographical environment or some special condition. The operating speed
is the external behavior of driving which is affected by several factors, such as
drivers’ psychology, alignment and road conditions. We can bridge the research gap
between highway alignment and transportation safety through research on the
comprehensive reaction results.
The alignment indices seem independent, but in fact, they are related to the
driver and the vehicles. In the operating speed theory, the key technology is the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 833
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description of actual traffic operation environments. The road alignment is the main
factor which influences the operating speed significantly in the operation
environment. Recently, researchers from America, Germany, Australia and Canada
have done considerable research on the relationship between horizontal alignment,
vertical alignment and operating speed. In 1990, Lamm and his partners established
the model which described the relationship between curve radius and operating speed.
In 1994, Islam and Senevirtne established the model of the relationship between
curvature and operating speed. In 1997, McFadden and Elefteriadou established the
operating speed prediction model based on the curvature, the length of horizontal
curve, deflection angle of curve and the forward line of curve. In 2001, G.M.Gibreel
established two-type multiple regression model. The Brazil model is a restricted
factors model which only considers the geometrical alignment and pavement
conditions according the standard of mechanical performance and driving
performance.
These models build up the relationship between single or several alignment
factors and operating speed to a certain degree. But, operating speed is the
comprehensive result of horizontal, vertical and cross-section alignment. These
models ignored the comprehensive factors and have less applicability. Therefore,
differing from the traditional modeling method, the operational environment
description model based on the road geometrical alignment indices was established
to lay a foundation for operating speed prediction.

2. ROAD ALIGNMENTS SPATIAL GEOMETRICAL CHARACTERS FUZZY

SETS OF MATHEMATICS
2.1 Select Road Alignment Factors That Effect Operating Speed
Operating speed is affected by many alignment factors including horizontal,
vertical and cross-section indices which have different degrees of influence in
general cases. The selection of road alignment factors will directly affect the validity
of the operation environment description model and operating speed prediction
model. In the process of selection, the follow principles must be used:
(1) Factor sets should be concise and comprehensive, which can indicate
spatial geometrical attributes that influence traffic safety and operating speed.
(2) As many factors indicating road safety attributes should be selected as
possible.
(3) The factors should be testable, and the test results should be stable.
Following the above principles, the factor set is composed of radius of curve
F1，accumulative corner（can be used to determine the accurate vehicle position in
curve）F2, the position proportion on the curve（travel distance / the length of curve）
F3, the longitudinal slope F4 and the cross-section index F5。Single factor hierarchy
affecting road safety is shown in Figure 1.
According to the survey data and recent research, when the curve radius, the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 834
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cross slope and the widening proportion decrease, or the accumulative corner or the
longitudinal increase, the operating speed will decrease, and the degree of change
will be different as the position of curve is different. These factors are divided into
several classes, shown in Table 1.

Figure 1. Single factor hierarchy of road alignment indices.

Table 1. Single factor hierarchy of road alignment indices.

Effectiveness to operating Speed
Factor Very Very
Slight Modest Strong
Slight Strong
Curve Radius F1
> 2000 1500~2000 1000~1500 500~1000 < 500
（m）
accumulative
<0.04 0.04~0.06 0.06~0.08 0.08~0.10 > 0.10
corner F2（°/m）
the position 0.03 ~ 0.09 0.09 ~ 0.16 0.16 ~
< 0.03 or 0.3 0~
proportion on the or or 0.30 or
> 0.95 0.60
curve F3 0.85~0.95 0.75 ~ 0.85 0.60~0.75
the longitudinal
<0 0~2 2~4 4~6 >6
slope F4（%）
the cross slope F5
-2 -2~0 0~1 2~3 >3
（%）
F2：β/R, β is the angle passed, the unit is °, R is radius of the curve, the unit is m.
F3: Lx/L，L is the length of the whole curve, Lx is the length of start point to current
point on the curve.

2.2 Establish Evaluation Sets

The paper adopts fuzzy mathematics to establish the description model. It is
defined that the closer the comprehensive index F is to 1, the better the alignment is,
the fewer the influence factors and the closer the operating speed is to ideal speed.  
According to fuzzy judgment of a single factor, we can obtain the grades of
the fuzzy judgment. The evaluation sets are listed as follows: V={very slight, slight,
modest, strong, very strong }={ v1,v2,v3,v4,v5}. In addition, each grade is endued
with numerical value correspondingly. For example, if the grade is very slight, F=1;
if the grade is slight, F=0.8; if the grade is modest, F=0.6; if the grade is strong,
F=0.4; otherwise, F=0.2. So V = {v1,v2,v3,v4,v5}={1,0.8,0.6,0.4,0.2}.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 835
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2.3 Weight Set Determination

There are many ways to determine weight set, such as AHP,
estimation-Matrix, expert’s assessment, and so on. AHP is an effective way to
determine several factors’ weight, using Saaty’s quantitative  scale method to
construct a judgment matrix and calculation. To uncertain judgment, leaves it empty
and fills up by mathematics with existing data. Then, characteristic roots of the
judgment matrix can be solved and the maximum root λmax can be calculated, so
characteristic vector W, which is the relative importance of weight order that several
factors in the same  layer relative to some factor in the upper layer, could be found.
Then a consistency check should be carried out. Saaty’s quantitative scale method is
shown in Table 2 and the calculation result is shown in Table 3.

Table 2. Saaty’s 1~9 quantitative scale method.

Compare x with y Description （x，
f y） f(y,x)
x,y has equal contribution to
x is equal with y 1 1
target
x is a little more x has a little more contribution
3 1/3
important than y than y，but not obvious
x is strongly more x has more contribution than
5 1/5
important than y y，but not obvious
x is Very strongly more x has much more contribution
7 1/7
important than y than y，but not very obvious
x is overwhelmingly x has overwhelmingly more
9 1/9
more important than y contribution than y
Comparison with x and y
2,4, 1/2,1/4,
is between above Between above judgment
6,8 1/6,1/8
neighbor judgments

Table 3. Weight of single factor.

Hierarchy Normalized weight of every layer consistency check,α=0.05
F F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 λmax=5.04，
CI=0.01 < CIcritical＝0.099
W 0.257 0.088 0.088 0.413 0.154 CR＝0.01 < CRcritical＝0.088，
match

3. FUZZY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OPERATING SPEED INFLUENCE

FACTORS
The most prominent characteristic of fuzzy set theory is that it changes
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 836
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determinate subjection {0,1} to continuous closed interval [0,1], which takes the
transition state into account. Because the factors are quite complex, determinate
limitation often keeps some rules down. Fuzzy set theory solves the contradiction by
using the subordinate function. Half-trapezia subordinate function and trapezia
subordinate function were used in the paper. For example, the function used to
evaluate curve radius is shown as follows:

⎧ 1 ⎧ 1
⎪ 500 x − 3 1500 ≤ x < 2000 ⎪500 x − 2 1000≤ x < 1500
⎪ ⎪
⎪ ⎪ 1
Fv1 ( x) = ⎨1 2000 ≤ x Fv2 (x) = ⎨3 − x 1500≤ x < 2000
⎪ ⎪ 1000
⎪0 Others ⎪0 Others
⎪⎩ ⎪
⎩
⎧ 1 ⎧ 1
⎪ 500 x − 1 500 ≤ x < 1000 ⎪ 500 x x < 500
⎪ ⎪
⎪1 1000 ≤ x < 1500 ⎪1 500 ≤ x < 1000
⎪ ⎪
Fv3 ( x) = ⎨ 4 x ）=
Fv（ ⎨
⎪4 − 1 x 1500 ≤ x < 2000 ⎪3 − 1 x 1000 ≤ x < 1500
⎪ 500 ⎪ 500
⎪ ⎪
⎪0 Others ⎪0 Others
⎩ ⎩
⎧1 ≤ 500
⎪
⎪⎪ 1
Fv（
5 x）= ⎨2 − x 500 ≤ x ≤ 1000
⎪ 500
⎪0 1000 ≤ x
⎪⎩

4. EXAMPLE
The horizontal and vertical alignment of one mountainous highway is shown
in Figure 2, whose designed speed is 80Km/h. Then, we calculate the alignment
comprehensive index at characteristic points. According to the rule in Design Rules
of Road Alignment (JTJ 011-94), we do not set widening when the curve radius is
longer than 250m, but we set a 6% superelevation at the curve point.
The calculation formula of corner on transition curve is as follows.
lh 2
β= (rad )
2 A2

Ls
β 0 = 28.6479 (°)
R
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 837
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β: Curve corner；
β0: Corner at HY point;
lh: the length from Point h to ZH point on transition curve;
Ls: the length of transition curve.

The calculate formula of corner on round curve as follows:

2l y + Ls
β = βY + β 0 = 28.6479( ) (°)
R
ly：the length from Point y to ZH point on round curve；
βY：central angle of ly；
Ls：the length of transition curve.

Fill the results calculated by formulas above into Table 4.

Table 4. Comprehensive alignment indicators calculation table.

Ratio Degree
Curve Unit of Vertical of
Characteristic Corner
radius corner curve slope transect F
Point β（°）
（m） β/R position （%） slope
Lx/L （%）
ZH +∞ 0 0 0 -1 -2 1
HY 550 6.2505 0.0114 0.1657 -1 6 0.635
QZ 550 31.4703 0.0572 0.5000 -2 6 0.621
YH 550 6.2505 0.0114 0.8343 2 6 0.543
HZ +∞ 0 0 1 2 -2 0.876

Figure 2. Highway Alignment.

5. CONCLUSION
Operating speed plays a very important role in some stages of road
construction such as alignment design, safety reconstruction and operation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 838
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management. Operating speed is closely related to alignment. However, the

alignment indices are various and complex. How to establish the operational
environment description model based on alignment is the basic and critical
technology in the operating speed research. The road alignment index space
comprehensive description model to be used for operating speed prediction was put
forward by using the trapezoidal and half-trapezoidal membership function. At last,
the actual example was shown to explain the calculation of the road alignment space
comprehensive index. In this model, we consider horizontal curve radius,
accumulative corner, ratio of curve position, vertical slope and transect slop,
construct the model by applying examples, which can accurately represent the
geometry characteristics of alignment and the objective safety of the operating
environment. The research of the operation environment description model based on
alignment comprehensive indices provides a basis for predicting operating speed, and
has an important significance for traffic safety improvement.

REFERENCES
Fitzpatrick, K., P. Carlson, M. A. Brewer, M. D. Wooldridge, and S. Miaou, “Design
Speed, Operating Speed, and Posted Speed Practices”, In NCHRP Report
504, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D. C., 2003.
Gibreel G. M., Easa S. M. and El-Dimeery I. A. 2001, “Prediction of operating speed
on three-dimensional highway alignments”, Journal of Transportation
Engineering, Vol. 127, No. 1, January/February, Ed. By ASCE, pp.21-30.
Guo Zhong-Yin, Fang Shou-En, “Road Safety Engineering”, China Communication
Press, China, September 2003.
Report of Research on Equilibrium Evaluation Of Alignment Technical Index. No.2,
School of Transportation Engineering of Tongji University, China,
December 2004.
Wang Xiao-fei; Guo Zhong-yin. Research on Network Safety Operation Based on
Two-Level Fuzzy Comprehensive Judgment of Highway Segment , Journal
of Tongji University (Natural Science), China, 2007.
Yan Ying. Freeway Operating Speed Prediction Model. Tongji University doctoral
dissertation, 2009.
Yan Ying, Xu Jun-kang. Report of study of Highway Alignment Design Consistency
Evaluation Model. School of Transportation Engineering of Tongji University,
2008.
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 839
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Experimental Research of Relationship between Pedestrian Stopping Distance

and Walking Speed to Avoid Pedestrian Crowd Stampede Accident
Yuanyuan ZHANG1, Xiaohong CHEN2 ,Na LI3
1
PhD Student, School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University; Room 337,
Building of Transportation Engineering, No. 4800, Rd. Cao’an, Shanghai, P.R.China,
Post No. 201804; PH +86 13817794935; E-mail chanel830719@hotmail.com
2
Professor, School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University; Room 512,
Building of Transportation Engineering, No. 4800, Rd. Cao’an, Shanghai, P.R.China,
Post No. 201804; PH +86 21 65982897; E-mail chenxh@mail.tongji.edu.cn
3
Master, School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University; Room 337,
Building of Transportation Engineering, No. 4800, Rd. Cao’an, Shanghai, P.R.China,
Post No. 201804; PH +86 21 69584683; E-mail linayiqun@163.com

ABSTRACT
Stampede accidents usually take place in crowded areas in transfer stations,
sports stadiums, shopping malls, religious places and other similar areas. One of the
causes of stampedes is that people do not have enough distance to stop themselves
when there are emergencies. Like vehicles, pedestrians also need stopping distance
when they want to stop from a certain speed, especially in a sudden situation without
any previous notice. People who could not stop in time crush into or step upon other
people, and may trigger a stampede accident. Analysis of worldwide stampede
accidents reveals the reasons for stampede accidents. In the following sections, this
paper describes the experimental design, including variable definitions, measurement
set-up and experiment processing. The process of data collection and the building of
relationship models are presented, as well as some preliminary results. In the end, the
application of this relationship of stopping distance and walking speed will be
introduced.

1. INTRODUCTION
Stampede accidents have killed at least 6,500 people in the last century
(Crowd Safety Consultants, 2008). More than 120 stampede accidents occurred all
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 840
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over the world from 1902 to 2007 (Crowd Safety Consultants, 2008). These tragedies
took place in transfer stations, sports stadiums, shopping malls, religious places, etc.
This paper finds out that there are three kinds of conditions which trigger a stampede
tragedy: fire, terrorism attack, construction collapse; rush and fight for tickets, goods
or entry; and sudden stop. It is easier to understand that when people are escaping,
they often behave irrationally (Helbing, 2000). This can cause pushing and crushing
mutually and blindly so that stampedes occur. However, in many cases, people who
walk normally and calmly in streets, stairways and passages can also unfortunately
encounter stampede accidents. Why, without panic, would people still crush into and
stamp upon each other? The reason is there were sudden stops in the normal crowd
flow of pedestrians. Sometimes a pedestrian wanted to tie his/her shoestring, or
he/she wanted to turn around to go back, but the pedestrians who followed him/her
did not have enough distance to stop from a speed in high density flow. Then people
became crowded and may have fallen down, causing more people crush into and
stamp upon each other leading to a stampede accident. Tragedies which happened in
normal flow are what this paper will focus on.
Of course, not all pedestrian flows have stampedes. Apparently the ones with
some high speed and high density could have this risk. The most crucial condition is
whether pedestrians have enough distance to stop from a speed when sudden stops
occur right ahead. So the key point is to find out different distance needs for different
speeds when a pedestrian encounters a sudden stop in front of him/her. This study
designs an experiment to derive the relationship between distance needed to stop and
walking speed.

2. PREVIOUS RESEARCH
Because of the high frequency of stampede accidents, many researchers and
professionals conducted experimental research from the early 1950s. These studies
were concerned about the factors influencing walking speeds, the use of space by
pedestrians and the relation between walking behaviors and environment.
Macroscopic and microscopic characteristics of pedestrians are derived from these
experiments. Useful models and simulation tools are designed based on the data and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 841
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findings from these experiments as well.

Mintz (1951) used the data from laboratory tests to demonstrate a theory
which can explain the non-adaptive features of behavior occurring in panics. This
behavior appeared in terms of the reward structure of the situations rather than in
terms of mutual facilitation of emotion. Older (1968) collected pedestrian speed,
density and flow data of bidirectional pedestrian flow from open streets in London,
and obtained the fundamental diagrams of pedestrian movement. Fruin (1971) set up
cameras in streets to record pedestrian behavior. From this data he described and
quantified space needed for people to walk, queue and crowd. A level-of-service
concept of pedestrian facility had been firstly built up. Polus and Joseph (1983)
collected data in the central business district of Haifa, Israel to analyze properties and
characteristics of pedestrian flow on sidewalks. One- and three-regime linear
speed-density regression models were calibrated and evaluated. Weidmann (1993)
provided a comprehensive overview of the most important studies of pedestrian
walking behavior including fundamental diagrams and walking’s special uses. Dirk
Helbing et al (1997-2006) utilized mathematical methods to simulate pedestrian
flows and described self-organizing pedestrian movement from experiment
observation and developed the social-force model to simulate dynamical features of
pedestrians in many scenarios. Their study also offered a many-particle-inspired
theory for granular outflow through bottlenecks. Daammen and Hoogendoorn
(2002-2007) conducted experiments to derive microscopic pedestrian data in
bottlenecks. With their efforts, simulation tools were developed for estimation of
mean and variability of walking times in transfer stations and prediction of
pedestrian behavior in general walking facilities.
The past research focuses on pedestrian characteristics and fundamental
diagrams. Yet, experimental and systematic studies of stampede accidents under
normal conditions are rare. This study seeks to fill this research gap.

3. DEFINITIONS
There are two important variables to be observed and measured in this
experiment: D (cm), stopping distance, which is the distance a pedestrian walks from
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 842
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the moment a sudden stop happens in front of him/her to the moment he/she stops
his/her steps. The stopping distance is determined to be along the walking direction
of pedestrians. Generally, it is in right ahead of a pedestrian. V (m/s) is walking
speed, at which a pedestrian walks before a sudden stop happens in front of him/her.

4. CARRYING OUT THE EXPERIMENT

The advantage of performing experiments is the total control of the
circumstances. Situations can be simulated as needed. When gathering field data or
observing in real crowd flow for sudden stop situation, there may not be a situation
like this. If researchers make a sudden stop on purpose, it could lead to a real
accident. Considering efficiency and safety, experiments under total control is a
perfect solution.
4.1 Measurement Set-Up
The experiment is arranged in a long passage in the building of the
Department of Transportation Engineering in Tongji University, Shanghai, China.
The passage is on the third floor with 4 windows on one side and walls on the other
side. The passage is 2m broad and 20m long. Grids of 10cm interval are drawn on the
floor of the passage. These grids are used to measure the stopping distance. This
passage offers a favorable ambience with constant light intensity, few shadows and
smooth surfaces. A digital camera was mounted at the wall side of the passage, at a
height of 2m to observe an area approximately 2m broad and 3m long. The digital
camera has a resolution of 1280×960 pixels, and was attached to a digital video
recorder, offering high quality video footage. Figure 1 shows the schematic
illustration and photos of the experiment. Three points A, B and C, are marked on the
floor to divide two sections. One is for measuring speed and one is for filming the
stopping process. The camera is set in section BC to film the pedestrian stopping
process.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 843
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Figure 1. Sketch of the measurement set-up (a) and the photos during
processing of the experiment (b-d).
4.2 Course of The Experiment
Twenty-nine males and 25 females participated in this experiment, with ages
between 20 and 45. There are 2 observers. One observer records the time a pedestrian
takes when he/she walks from point A to B. Walking speed is defined as the length of
section AB derived by the travel time. After the pedestrian walks through point B, the
other observer calls a stop command suddenly and randomly while the pedestrians
are walking between sections B and C. This is designed to simulate the sudden stop
happens in pedestrian flow. Pedestrians are arranged to walk through the passage one
at a time with fast and normal speed separately. Accordingly, one pedestrian can
produce two groups of data. For the best effect of the sudden stop simulation,
pedestrian were not told beforehand about the stop command during their walking
process. The pedestrians who have finished the experiment cannot talk to the ones
who are waiting.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 844
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5. PRELIMINARY RESULTS
Considering that the walking characteristics are different between men and
women, the data should be analyzed separately for each gender. As mentioned before,
there are two variables: D, stopping distance and V, average walking speed. Every
speed matches along with a specific stopping distance, which makes one group of
data. Since each pedestrian was told to walk through two times at fast and normal
speeds, each pedestrian produces two groups of data. D is measured on the film shot
by the camera and V is calculated using travel time and length of section AB.
5.1 Data Analysis
Twenty-nine males and 25 females participated in this experiment, so there
are 58 groups of male data and 50 groups of female data.
5.2 Similarity Analysis of The Male and Female Regression Model
In real life, pedestrian crowd flows are mixed with males and females.
Researchers cannot apply two regression models to assess males and females
separately. This problem raises the question of whether the two models are highly
similar without significant differences so that there could be one regression model to
apply for the mixed pedestrian flow of males and females.
Euclidean distance (Gong, 2006), which is in scale of 0 to 1, is used to test
the similarity of the two models’ induced values. The closer this distance is to 1, the
higher the similarity is. The result shows that the Euclidean distance is 1. This means
that the two models are highly similar. So, the data of males and females can mixed
together to build a single regression model which can be applied to assess the real
mixed pedestrian flow. This paper will analyze data for males and females separately
to show the characteristics of different genders, and analyze them together to find the
relationship of D and V of the whole population.
Step 1 Data Check
All groups of data should be checked for defective values and abnormal
values. Figure 2 shows the scatter graph of the original data. There is no defective
value, but there is an outlier which could be an abnormal value. Considering this
outlier could reflect some typical and important characteristics of stopping behavior,
the outlier will not be deleted.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 845
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(a) Male data

(b) Female data

(c) Mixed data

Figure 2. Scatter graph of the male and female data of stopping distance and
walking speed.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 846
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Step 2 Pearson Correlation Analysis

Using the statistic analysis tool SPSS, Pearson correlation analysis is
performed to test the correlation between the two variables, stopping distance and
walking speed (Gong, 2006). The result of the bi-lateral test with significance level
0.01 shows that the Pearson correlation value of male and female data are all higher
than 0.5, see Table 1, which means that the correlation between stopping distance and
walking speed is highly significant.
Step 3 Regression Analysis
Figure 2 shows a linear relationship between stopping distance and walking
speed, so linear regression (Gong, 2006) are as follows:
For male data: D = 70.911V-9.028 (1.1)
For female data: D = 73.049V-4.669 (1.2)
For mixed data: D = 70.381V-4.783 (1.3)
Where D is stopping distance, cm;
V is walking speed, m/s, and V≥0.
The degree of fitting (Gong, 2006) is tested and the negative correlation
coefficient R of male and female data are all close to 1, see Table 1. This means that
the regression is fine. A standardized residual column diagram (Gong, 2006) is used
to test the robustness of the regression model, see Figure 3. The column diagram
shows that the standardized residual obeys normal distribution, which means that the
regression model is robust.
Table 1. Analysis Data of SPSS.
population Pearson correlation value R
male data 29 0.791 0.790

female data 25 0.683 0.717

mixed data 54 0.750 0.750

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 847
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(a) Male data

(b) Female data

(c) Mixed data

Figure 3. Standardized residual column diagram of the relation model of
male, female and mixed stopping distance and walking speed.

Figure 4 shows the diagram of the linear relationship between stopping

distance and walking speed for mixed data. When the speed is lower than 0.1m/s, the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 848
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stopping distance will be 0. This is the real phenomenon happening in the pedestrian
walking process. As expected, when pedestrian walks slowly to a certain level or
even slower, he/she does not need any distance to stop. The stopping process could
be performed simultaneously as the sudden stop happens right ahead. The faster
pedestrian walks, the longer the required stopping distance will be to avoid crushing
into the pedestrian who suddenly stops ahead. Based on these data, the model is in
accordance with actual situations.

Figure 4. Linear relationship model of pedestrian walking speed and stopping

distance.
6. APPLICATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP MODEL
Using this model, researchers and engineers can determine the space
limitations of a crowd flow which could have risks of stampede accidents when
sudden stops occur. For example, observing a pedestrian crowd flow could obtain the
average walking distance between people with different speeds.

Figure 5. Example of assessing stampede risk using relationship model of

stopping distance and walking speed.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 849
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Figure 5 shows a scatter graphic of distance change against speed, with the
data from an observation in subway station passage during peak hours in Shanghai,
China. The diagonal in Figure 5 represents the stopping distance needed under
various walking speeds according to the model formulation (1.3). In Figure 5, points
under the diagonal represent the condition under which pedestrian cannot stop in
time when a sudden stop occurs ahead. That means, if there is no sudden stop, the
crowd can flow normally and safely; if there is a sudden stop unfortunately, the
crowd will have a crush or stampede accident.
It is true that predicting the frequency or possibility of sudden stops in a
crowd is impossible today, but what is possible is to notice and to pay attention when
there are risks. This study offers a model and method to find the risk in advance.

7. CONCLUSION
This contribution emphasizes the value of studying stampede accidents under
normal conditions. It is clear that the key point for assessing the risk of these
accidents happening in normal and fluent crowd flow is the stopping distance. The
past experimental researches of pedestrian flow are summarized. This paper
presented experimental design, measurement set-up and process of the stopping
distance experiment. Further research will focus on more realistic simulations of
sudden stops. This paper uses acoustic stop signals rather than visual stop signals
because of technical deficiency. The difference between acoustic reaction time and
visual reaction time should be tested. Studies of stopping distance from the
perspective of age should be conducted.

REFERENCES
Crowd Dynamic Ltd-International Crowd Safety Consultants. Crowd Disasters.
Updated Jun. 18, 2008. http://www.crowddynamics.com/technical/.
Accessed July 20, 2008.
Daamen, W. and Hoogendoorn, S. P. Assessing Passenger Comfort and Capacity
Bottlenecks in Dutch Train Stations. In 86th Annual Meeting Transportation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 850
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Research Board, Washington, D. C., CD-ROM, 2007, 1-15.

Daamen, W. and Hoogendoorn, S. P. Modelling Pedestrian Flows Through Transfer
Stations. In Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.
C., 2002, 1-15.
Fruin, J. J. “Pedestrian Planning and Design.” Elevator World, New York, 1971.
Gong Shuming. Applied Statistics. Tsinghua University Press, Beijing, 2006.
Helbing, D. et al. “Analytical Approach to Continuous and Intermittent Bottleneck
Flows.” Physical Review Letters, Vol. 97, 168001, 2006.
Helbing, D. “Self-organization Phenomena in Pedestrian Crowds.” In
Self-organization of Complex Structures: From Individual to Collective
Dynamics. Ed. F Schweitzer, Gordon and Breach, London, 1997, 569-577.
Hoogendoorn, S. P. and Daamen, W. Extracting Microscopic Pedestrian
Characteristics from Video Data, In Transportation Research Board annual
meeting, Washington DC, 2003, 1-15.
Mintz, A. “Non-adaptive Group Behavior.” The Journal of Abnormal and Social
Psychology, Vol. 46, 1951, 150-159.
Nagai, R.; Fukamachi, M.; Nagatani, T. “Evacuation of Crawlers and Walkers from
Corridor Through an Exit.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its
Applications, Vol. 367, 2006, 449-460.
Older, S. J. “Movement of Pedestrian on Footways in Shopping Streets.” Traffic
Engineering and Control, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1968, 160-163.
Polus, A.; Schofer, J.L.; Ushpiz, A. “Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service.” Journal
of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 109, No. 1, 1983, 46-56.
Weidmann, U. Transporttechnik der Fussgänger. Schriftenreihe des Instituts für
Verkehrsplanung, Transporttechnik, Straßen- und Eisenbahnbau number 90,
ETH Zürich, Switzerland, 1993.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 851
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Generalized Visibility of Freeway in Adverse Weather Conditions

1,2 1,2 1
Shougang HUANG Huili ZHANG Shaofang WEN Haining LIU 1

1
School of traffic and transportation, Shijiazhuang Railway Institute, Shijiazhuang,
Hebei, China, Post code 050043; PH (86) 311-87935516; FAX (86) 311-87935516;
email: huangshougang@sina.com
2
Traffic Safety and Control Lab of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China, Post
code 050043; PH and FAX (86) 311-87935516; email: huangshougang@sina.com

ABSTRACT
In adverse weather conditions, safe operation on freeways is closely related to
the “driver, vehicle and road” concept. In order to ensure a safe distance between
vehicles on freeways, the traditional concept of visibility should be taken into account,
as well as the physical state of the driver and vehicle performance, which overcomes
the limitation caused by traffic control methods which are confined by the traditional
view of visibility. By putting forward a new concept of generalized visibility (GV),
along with a deep analysis of its calculation and application, this paper introduces the
main achievement of a freeway management department by using the generalized
visibility index (GVI), a comprehensive way that takes other factors (driver, vehicle
and road) into consideration. Serving as a single composite index, GVI will be an
important tool for traffic management departments to make a decision easily and for
making traffic control more scientific and rational.

1. INTRODUCTION
Visibility is an index reflecting the transparency of the atmosphere. In the aviation
industry, it is defined as the longest distance between people with normal vision and
target's contour at the time of weather conditions. Visibility closely relates to weather
conditions. When rain, fog, haze, a dust storm or other adverse weather conditions
occur, the atmosphere is less transparent, so visibility is poor. Atmospheric visibility is
measured by visual methods, atmospheric transmission devices and laser visibility
automatic measuring instruments.
Visibility is very important to freeway transportation. In China, if there is heavy
fog or snow, the traffic management departments will close freeways because of poor
visibility, which greatly affects the road transportation. Is there another solution for
the problem? This paper will introduce generalized visibility (GV), which attempts to
resolve the matter.

2. ANALYSIS FOR VISIBILITY IN ADVERSE WEATHER

After analyzing the relationship between road traffic accidents and weather
conditions, Li Jianke pointed out that rain, snow and fog are the major harmful
conditions that affect road traffic safety. In certain areas, when the probability about
the occurrence of passive weather conditions is the least known, traffic accidents will
take place with largest probability (Li Jianke, 2008). Zhang Qing, National Climate
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 852
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Center, pointed out that the greatest impacts on road traffic are rainstorms and floods,
as well as fog, snow, wind and high temperatures (Zhang Qing, 1995). The following
study will simply analyze the visibility in such weather as fog, sandstorm, snow, rain
and high temperatures.

2.1 Fog Weather

Fog, consisting of lots of water droplets or ice crystals which suspend in the
atmosphere, is a weather phenomena whose visibility is below one kilometer. Sun
Yi-min in "disastrous fog" pointed out that fog extinction for light is mainly caused by
the droplet scattering light; the size of extinction coefficient is relative to correlative
characteristic parameters, such as size of the droplet, concentration and water content
of droplet (Sun Yimin, 1994). Because the droplet can scatter light, the contract in
brightness between targets and their background on freeways will decrease, and
visibility in fog will decrease (Chen Weili, 2005). Fog is the main factor that leads to
low visibility, creating a great danger for vehicles and drivers. When a vehicle runs in
the air, is the windows are covered by a layer of water film. So, drivers cannot see far
or clearly. Heavy fog often leads to traffic congestion, speed limitations or delayed
travel time and even causes serious accidents and great economic losses.

2.2 Sandstorm Weather

In recent years, as damage to the environment from human activities causes more
and more serious grassland desertification, the range and frequency of dust storms has
increased. Dust aerosol particles can cause the scattering and absorption of light,
which not only causes light attenuation, but also greatly impacts atmospheric visibility
(Li Shuguang, etc., 2003). If dust enters the vehicle, the driver will have difficulty
breathing and seeing clearly. Visual distances have been shortened, and road visibility
is low, only 70 ~ 100m in sandstorm weather. Dust storms often occur at the same
time as windy weather, which threatens the safe operation of freeways.

2.3 Rain and Snow Weather

In snowy weather, because of the flying snow effect, driver's visual distance is
shortened. After the snow, the strong sunshine reflected by snow decreases driver's
vision and reduces visibility. On the other hand, the driver reduces his vigilance
because the temperature is too low, which decreases the driver's attention. He Jingan
and Zhang Jinghua pointed out that, when the temperature is consistently lower than
18 degrees in the cab, the driver’s tactile discernment will decrease. When the
temperature of the driver’s hands is below 15 degrees, operational flexibility will be
significantly reduced, which might cause mistakes. When the temperature of the
driver’s hands is below 5 degrees, operational efficiency will be greatly affected. In
addition, snow weather will lead to water, snow and ice appearing on the surface of
the road. Low-temperatures will cause the pavement to freeze over, which will reduce
friction and extend stopping distance, threatening the safe operation of the freeway.
In rainy weather, the vision of drivers is affected which will make the estimation
of speed and distance incorrect. Rain makes the pavement wet and slippery. In this
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 853
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case, the attachment coefficient between the tires and pavement will decrease, friction
will decrease, and stopping distance will increase, causing skidding.

2.4 Hot Weather

In the summer with hot weather, the asphalt pavement at high temperature easily
produces reduces visibility. He Jingan and Zhang Jinghua, based on actual
observation, stated that the cab temperature is 4-6 degrees higher than the temperature
in the thermometer. If the daily maximum temperature is above 25 degrees, the cab
temperatures may exceed 30 degrees. With high temperatures, atmospheric oxygen
decreases to 25-30%. In this situation, drivers’ physical energy and load endurance
decrease, as well as sensory sensitivity, attention and action, thus affecting response
capacity, coordination and regulation. When the temperature is above 27 degrees in
the vehicle, drivers’ reaction to danger signals is 0.3s slower than when the
temperature is below 23 degrees, which means that the driver takes urgent measures
such as braking or bypassing obstacles 0.3s slower. In addition, with lower air
pressure and air density, air in the engine cylinder reduces, significantly decreasing
the engine's power. With air input in the air compressor of the braking system abating,
pressure in air reservoir drops, braking performance reduces and the braking distance
is extended.

3. EFFECTS ON DRIVERS, VEHICLES, ROADS IN ALL KINDS OF

ADVERSE WEATHER
The study shows that the safe operation of freeways is a system consisting of
drivers, vehicles and roads. Freeway accidents occur when there are problems in any
of the three areas. The impact on safe operations of the freeway in adverse weather
conditions also influences drivers, vehicles and roads (see Table 1).

Table 1. Impact on driver, vehicles, roads in all kinds of adverse weather.

driver vehicle road
driver can't see far and clearly Atmospheric
fog because of a layer of water film on transparency is
Cab glass low
Atmospheric
sandstorm Affect the breathe and observation transparency is
low
decreased vision, declined tactile the parking pavement
inefficient brake distance become hard and
snow discernment and
is extended is reduced friction
smooth,
operations of hand
adhesion
coefficient
the parking between tyre and
rain Line of sight is affected brake distance pavement
is extended decreases, and
friction is
reduced
drivers' physical energy and loading engine power asphalt pavement
heat endurance decrease, as well as dropped, and with high
sensory sensitivity, attention and braking temperature
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 854
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action, thus affecting response performance easily produce

capacity, coordination and is deduced vignette
regulation

Table 1 shows that, in adverse weather conditions, vehicle braking distance is

influenced by pavement condition, as well as driver's physical condition. For example,
factors include dull, blurred vision and vehicle performance. Therefore, under
adverse weather conditions, the vehicle braking distance depends on drivers, vehicles
and roads.
To sum up, it has been known that there are some limitations in choosing traffic
control methods for the freeway caused by traditional visibility. In adverse weather
conditions, traffic control methods should be considered with comprehensive
indicators.

4. PROPOSAL OF BROAD VISIBILITY AND APPLICATION METHOD

Based on the above analysis, the concept of GVI is proposed. GVI is a
comprehensive index of drivers, vehicles and roads, and is remarked by Lgs. The
method of calculation is as follows.
Lgs＝αcαpαrLns (1)
Lns——visibility (m), the maximum horizontal distance within which the
objective outline can be clearly discerned by people with normal vision
under the given weather conditions, measured by hazemeter, laser
transmittance meter, etc.
αc——vehicle performance index, the aspects such as vehicle type, performance
degradation caused by hot or cold weather, less than 1.
αp——physical condition index, determined by driver’s fatigue by hot weather,
slow movement by cold and snow-blind, etc, less than 1.
αr——Pavement Condition Index (PCI), according to the reduction level of
friction coefficient caused by adverse weather such as sleet and snow.
The PCI, developed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, is based on a
visual survey of the pavement and a numerical value between 0 and 100 that defines
the condition with 100 representing an excellent pavement (Shahin, M Y, et al., 1978).
But in this paper, PCI is determined by friction.
GVI considers the actual situation of drivers, vehicles and roads, and takes such
factors into account for the indicators, which provides an integrated indicator for more
scientific and reasonable traffic controls during adverse weather.
We take the following management approaches.
(1) A freeway pavement friction coefficient test is taken under the different
adverse weather conditions to provide traffic control measures with data.
(2) Vehicles are classified based on their different levels of performance. We do
not allow any vehicle with low brake performance or ones which are greatly affected
by inclement weather to pass. Vehicles with low driving security do not enter into
freeway, so portion of the accident source is eradicated. In addition, the decrease in
vehicles on the freeway ensures the safe operation of the freeway.
(3) We grade the physical condition of the drivers (including age) and formulate a
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 855
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reasonable physical condition index. Anyone who cannot meet the requirement of
generalized visibility index will be not allowed to drive onto the freeway.
(4) We determine a reasonable generalized visibility index for freeway closing to
avoid such simple approaches when encountering adverse weather, which can
minimize the economic losses.

5. THE APPLICATION OF ADVERSE WEATHER ON FREEWAYS

The solutions discussed in this paper have been applied to a freeway test section.
The following brief introduction is the management approach under the adverse
weather from that freeway management department.

5.1 Determination of The Indicators

First, a large number of tests were taken under the different adverse weather
conditions on pavement. The friction coefficient under the different adverse weather
conditions divided by the friction coefficient under normal dry conditions is the
Pavement Condition Index (see Table 2).

Table 2. Pavement Condition Index.

Adverse weather αr Remarks
Foggy and the temperature
0.93 Fog falls down the road surface, making a smooth surface
is higher than 0 ℃
Foggy and the temperature Low temperature, high humidity, road surface can easily
0.62
is below 0 ℃ forms a thin cream

Wind-blown sand 1.00 Almost no effect on the road surface friction coefficient

Snow without frozen 0.47

Blizzard without frozen 0.27

Snow ice 0.30

Blizzard ice 0.15

Small rain 0.67

Moderate rain 0.64

Heavy rain 0.60

Rainstorm 0.53

High temperature 1.00 Almost no effect on the road surface friction coefficient

Second, we classified vehicles by performance and gave the vehicle performance

index. Because of the many vehicle models in China, through expert rating methods, a
simple classification method has been taken, as shown in Table 3.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 856
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Table 3 .Vehicle Performance Index (αc).

Performance Experts serial number
Vehicle grade Mean
grade 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

≤1ton lorries, Vans,
Excellent 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
≤28seats bus
>1ton and ≤20tons lorries,
General Vans, 0.65 0.75 0.75 0.70 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.60 0.75 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.725
>28seats bus
Poor >20 tons lorries 0.50 0.60 0.55 0.45 0.50 0.40 0.50 0.30 0.45 0.45 0.50 0.35 0.463

Poorly modified vehicle,

Worst 0.10 0.10 0 0.05 0.25 0.20 0.15 0 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.117
Overloading vehicles

Note: Use the fine braking performance as the base 1, old vehicles down a grade.

Third, we determine a reasonable αp. The reaction time is related to physical

conditions. Under normal circumstances, the time from the driver’s visual perception
to stepping on brakes is 0.75 seconds, but when factors such as distraction, fatigue,
drunk driving, use of depressant drugs or within 15 minutes after lunch are present,
the reaction time will be extended. But if the reasonable physical condition index is
determined by reaction time, maneuverability will be greatly reduced. Therefore, in
order to enhance its operability, the approach controlled by age is taken. αp is
calculated according to equation (2).)

αp＝(35－ABS(35－age) )/35 (2)

αp——driver's physical condition index;
age——driver's age (years).
Through the above analysis, measured in adverse weather conditions, the
visibility multiplied by the vehicle performance index and physical condition index,
we can get the GVI of certain drivers and vehicles in certain adverse weather
conditions.

5.2 Determination and Application of GVI

GVI is managed in two ways: peak management and average management. The
former is that any certain vehicle and the driver which GVI exceeds the management
value will be not released. Some of the vehicles will be allowed to pass at this time.
The average management, if GVI exceeds the management when the driver’s physical
condition and vehicle performance are excellent, then, the freeway will be closed.
(1)Peak management
According to the Ministry of Public Security and a large number of road tests, we
take 20m as the reasonable peak visibility. Any vehicle for which the GVI is less than
20m will be not allowed to pass. Of course, any vehicles passing should also be in
accordance with the announcement.
(2) Average management
When drivers’ physical conditions and vehicle performance are excellent, vehicles
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 857
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will be allowed to pass. We define the product of physical condition index and vehicle
performance index as the driving index (see bellow).
αpc＝αcαp (3)

Through the statistical analysis of tests, αpc takes 0.60 as more reasonable.
Therefore, the average management calculation turns into equation (4).
L gs ＝0.60α r L ns (4)
According to the Ministry of Public Security and a large number of road tests, we
take 15m as the reasonable average visibility. As long as the GVI is less than 15m, the
freeway must be closed.

6. CONCLUSION
Due to the traffic control measures applied in the post-test section, the practice of
blocking traffic could be avoided and economic losses would be minimized. For the
China Freeway Administration, GVI provides a solution to the problem of traffic
control in adverse weather conditions

REFERENCES
Shahin, M Y; Darter, M I ; Kohn, S D (1978). “Development of a Pavement Condition
Index for Roads and Streets.” Army Construction Engineering Research
Laboratory.
Li Jianke. (2008). Analysis of Meteorological Conditions and Development of
Forecasting System on Freeway Traffic in Shaanxi Province.Lanzhou
University.
Zhang Qing. (1996). The Impact of Climate on Transport System in 1995. Journal of
Catastrophology, 011(002), 76-79.
Sun Yimin. (1994). Disastrous fog. Bei Jing: China Meteorological Press.
Chen Liwei. (2005). Analyze and Study on the Impact of Fog on Freeway Traffic
Security. Chang'an University.
Li Shuguang, Li Xiaodong, Hou Lantian, Zhang Huanping. (2003). Theoretical
Calculation about Influence of Sand Storm on Atmospheric Visibility.
Applied Laser, Feb, 87-90.
Zhang Jinghua, He Jingan. (2003). Study on Weather Index of Transportation Safety
in Xining Region. Qinghai Science and Technology ,May, 35-37.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 858
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Analysis and Application of the Tire Blowout Model Based on Fault Tree

Shiwu LI 1, Jingjing TIAN 1, Jinghai ZHANG *1, Zhifa YANG 1

1
Traffic Environment and Safety Laboratory, College of Transportation, Jilin
University, Changchun 130022, Jilin, China
1
* The corresponding author: Zhang JINGHAI; PH: 15043077764, 0431-84049946;
Email: 395815626@163.com

ABSTRACT
Tire blowout is one of the main factors leading to a fatal traffic accident.
Finding out and monitoring the main factors that affect tire safety performance is an
important way of reducing traffic accidents caused by tire blowout. Based on the
fault tree analysis of safety system engineering, the fault tree model of tire blowout
was established; the structure importance coefficient of each basic event was
computed; the abnormal vehicle states of the main factors arousing tire blowout were
found out and sorted by the structure importance coefficient as follows: over-speed,
under-inflation pressure, overload, eccentric load, over-inflation pressure, etc. The
vehicle monitoring and early warning system was developed based on the
above-mentioned analysis result, which realized real-time monitoring of factors
affecting tire safety performance and reduced the probability of tire blowout. This
system was of great significance to the prevention of tire blowout.

INTRODUCTION
At present, the number of vehicle is experiencing a rapid growth in China.
According to the statistics from Ministry of Transportation, forty six percent of
highway traffic accidents were caused by tire failures in China, of which seventy
percent were due to tire blowout. In the United States, U.S. SAE's survey statistics
showed that there were 26 million traffic accidents caused by tire failures, of which
seventy percent were due to under-inflation pressure or leakage. Tire blowout,
fatigue driving and over-speed have been three main causes of traffic accidents. At
home and abroad, there has been little research done on the causes of tire blowout.
Most of the research has been confined to the investigation data analyses. No researcj
was built on the basis of scientific approaches. With reference to tire monitoring and
early warning system China lags behind other countries. For example, the United
States and Japan unlike China have developed regulations and technical standards,
which highlight the application of scientific approaches to reduce the probability of
traffic accidents caused by tire blowout.
In order to ascertain the impact of all the main factors on tire blowout, this
paper applied FTA of safety system engineering to make an analysis of all the factors
affecting tire safety performance. According to the analytical results, a tire

 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 859
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monitoring early warning system was developed monitor the vehicle states
influencing tire safety status and some preventive suggestions were proposed for the
human factors of them.

PRINCIPLES OF FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

 
Figure 1. Process of fault tree analysis.
Fault tree also is named as an event tree or failure tree. In the fault tree, the
top event is the result of the underlying cases. The fault tree can be utilized to make
an analysis of some event in accordance with the following steps (see Figure 1).
1) Determine the top event T based on the purpose of analysis.
2) Investigate and make an analysis of main factors (M1, M2 ...; X1, X2 ...)
that may lead to the top-event.
3) Clarify the relationship of those factors (AND-OR gate) and build fault
tree model on the basis of the analysis result.
4) Figure out the minimum cut set of fault tree model and calculate the
structure importance coefficient of each basic event. Work out the top-event
occurrence rate caused by each minimum cut set based on the above computed result.
5) The quantitative analysis of fault tree is to calculate the probability of
top-event based on the probability of each basic event.
6) In terms of the qualitative and quantitative analysis results, the user can set
out specific measures to prevent the occurrence of each basic event combinations
(minimum cut set) that may lead to top-event occurrence.
The above-mentioned fault tree analysis program includes the qualitative and
quantitative part. In reality, it is very difficult to get the equipment failure rate and
human error rate and this makes quantitative analysis impossible. At present, we
usually qualitatively analyze the fault tree model. However, it proves that the
qualitative analysis can also obtain a good result.

 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 860
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FAULT TREE MODELING OF TIRE BLOWOUT

Based on the above principle of fault tree analysis, tire blowout was identified
as the top-event T. All the factors (X1~X28) influencing tire safety performance were
found out, as follow. The content in bracket was the abbreviation of each basic event.
X1—Underinflation Pressure (UP); X2—Tire Mechanical Injury (TMI);
X3—Over-inflation Pressure (OP); X4—Shocking (S);
X5—Emergency Brake (EB); X6—Sharp Turning (ST);
X7— Hot Weather (HW);
X8—Don’t Cool the Tire According to the Operational Requirement (DC);
X9— Over Heat (OH); X10—Overload (O);
X11—Eccentric Load (EL); X12—Over-Speed (OS);
X13—Excessive Wear (EW);
X14—Normal Wear (NW); X15—Frame Deformation (FD);
X16—Improper Front Wheel Camber Angle (IFWCA);
X17—Improper Kingpin Inclination Angle (IKIA);
X18—Improper Toe-in (IT); X19—Improper Caster Angle;
X20—Fast Start (FS); X21—Tire Quality (TQ);
X22—Contact With Chemical Materials (CWCM);
X23—Exposure to Burning Sunshine (ETBS);
X24—Improper Tire Type (ITT); X25—Using Recap (UR);
X26—Using Non-balanced Tire (UNBT);
X27—Don’t Regularly Carry on Tire Rotation (DRCOTR);
X28—Radial Tires and Bias Tires being Mixed (RTABT);
The logical relationships of all the basic events were determined by analyzing
the reasons that could lead to tire blowout. All of them were divided into basic
factors (M1) and human factors (M2). The fault tree model of tire blowout was built
on the base of the analysis result (see Figure 2).

     

 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 861
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Note: denoting OR- gate; denoting AND- gate;

Figure 2. Fault tree model of tire blowout.

 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 862
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ANALYSIS OF FAULT TREE MODEL OF TIRE BLOWOUT

Solving out minimum cut set
The minimum cut set of fault tree is used to indicate the risk level of the
monitored event. Every member of the minimum cut set can evoke the top-event.
The more the number of minimum cut set members, the more dangerous the system
is.
In the article, Boolean-Algebra was adopted to solve the minimum cut set of
the fault tree of tire blowout. All of them could lead to the top-event occurrence (see
Table 1).
Table 1. Minimum Cut Set.
Item Result
Single Event X5, X6 , X22, X23, X24, X25, X26, X27, X28;
Double Events X1 X2, X2 X10, X2 X11, X1 X12, X3 X4, X10 X12, X11 X21
X7 X8 X9, X1 X13 X14, X10 X13 X14, X11 X13 X14, X13 X14 X15,
Triple Events X13 X14 X16, X13 X14 X17, X13 X14 X18, X13 X14 X19, X13 X14 X20,
X13 X14 X21

Solving out the structure importance coefficient of each basic event

The structure importance coefficient of basic event reflects its importance in
the fault tree model and this means that the impact of each basic event is based on the
top-event. Structure importance analysis is a qualitative analysis method based on the
fault tree structure. After the minimum cut set is figured out, the structure importance
coefficient can be obtained by formula (1):
1
Iϕ ( i ) = 1 − ∏ (1 − n j −1
) (1)
Xi 2

Where： Iϕ ( i ) ——the structure importance coefficient of basic event;

n j ——the number of basic event in the cut set including basic event Xj.

In the fault tree of tire blowout, without considering the probability of

occurrence of each basic event, the structure importance coefficient of each basic
event was worked out based on the above minimum cut set by formula (1) (see Table
2). Among all the basic events influencing tire safety performance, lowering the
probability of some basic events depended on the improvement of driver’s driving
skill, safety awareness and maintenance level. Some were unavoidable, such as tire
normal wear. After the human and unavoidable factors were removed, the abnormal
vehicle states influencing tire safety performance were sorted by structure
importance coefficient, as follows: Excessive Wear > Over-Speed > Under-inflation

 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 863
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Pressure = Overload = Eccentric load > Over-inflation Pressure > Over Heat. The
results showed that under-inflation pressure had worse effect on tire safety than that
of over-inflation pressure, which conformed to the statistical result. It proved the
fault tree model feasible.
Table 2. Structure Importance of Each Basic Event.
Order Structure Importance
1 Iφ (X13 ) =0.1310

2 Iφ (X 2 ) = Iφ (X12 ) =0.0536

3 Iφ (X1 ) = Iφ (X10 ) = Iφ (X11 ) =0.0476

4 Iφ (X5 ) = Iφ (X6 ) = Iφ (X 22 ) = Iφ (X 23 ) = Iφ (X24 ) = Iφ (X25 ) = Iφ (X 26 ) = Iφ (X 27 ) = Iφ (X 28 ) =0.0357

5 Iφ (X3 ) = Iφ (X14 ) =0.0298

6 Iφ (X 4 ) =0.0179

7 Iφ (X7 ) = Iφ (X8 ) = Iφ (X9 ) = Iφ (X15 ) = Iφ (X16 ) = Iφ (X17 ) = Iφ (X18 ) = Iφ (X19 ) = Iφ (X20 ) =0.0119

VEHICLE MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING SYSETM

Based on the structure importance order of all the basic events in the fault
tree model of tire blowout, the vehicle monitoring and early warning system was
developed to monitor the abnormal vehicle states affecting tire safety performance in
real time. The unimportant factors were ignored and this had an important practical
value in bringing down the probability of tire blowout and raising tire life.
Work of vehicle monitoring and early warning system
The system was divided into three modules: data collection module, data
processing module and data display (see Figure 3).

Figure 3. Work of the vehicle monitoring and early warning system.

 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 864
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4.2. Implementation of Vehicle Monitoring and Early Warning System

In the Windows CE system, the Embedded Visual C + + (EVC) was selected
as development tool. The developed system was mounted on the monitored vehicle
(see Figure 4).This system could real-time monitor vehicle running state (see Figure
5). Clicked the "detail" button beside tire status bar of Figure 4 and we could obtain
all the tires’ real-time state (see Figure 6).

Figure 4. Vehicle monitoring and early warning system.

Figure 5. Operating interface of vehicle monitoring and early warning system.

 
Figure 6. Tire temperature and pressure monitoring module.
The vehicle monitoring and early warning system monitored speed, tire
temperature, tire pressure, and tire load in real time. If anyone exceeded its threshold,
the system would send out a warning. Besides, some preventive measures were

 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 865
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proposed for the human factors that might trigger tire blowout: 1) The speed rating
and load capacity of tire must match with vehicle type; 2) The new and renewed tires
are rationally mixed; 3) Tire rotation must be conducted regularly; 4) Tires must be
balanced on a regular basis; 5) Careful driving is necessary; improve the driver's
driving skills and emergency response ability; 6) Use the tire rationally. For example:
if tire temperature exceeds the threshold, the vehicle should be parked in the shade
for natural cooling and the tire must not be cooled by splashing water; 7) Improve
driver's safety awareness.

CONCLUSION
Based on the fault tree analysis of system security engineering, the fault tree
model of tire blowout was established to make analysis of the main factors affecting
tire safety performance; the structure importance coefficient of each basic event was
computed; the analysis results conformed to the statistical result, which proved the
fault tree analysis feasible. A vehicle monitoring and early warning system was
developed, which could real-time monitor the vehicle running states impacting on
tire safety performance. This system could reduce the probability of tire blowout
caused by these factors. The safety level of running vehicle was improved.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work is financially supported by the National High Technology Research
and Development Program (863 Program) (2009AA11Z215) and the National
Natural Science Foundation (General Program) (50878094). All the authors
gratefully acknowledge these support agencies.

REFERENCES
Fang Xiaoyong. (2006). “ Research on the Tire Pressure and Temperature Monitoring
System Based on Wireless Communication.” Changchun: Jilin University.
He Hongyu, Jiang Huaping. (2008). “ Analysis of Causes of Traffic Accident Based
on FTA.” Proceedings of 2008 (shenyang) International Colloquium on
Safety Science and Technology, 800-802.
Luo Qingsheng, Han Baoling. (2003). “Simulating and Debugging on Software and
Hardware of the Tire Safe Capability Intelligent Measuring System.”
Computer Engineering and Design , 31-34.
Nedal T.Ratrout. (2005). “Tire condition and drivers’ practice in maintaining tires in
Saudi Arabia.” Accidents analysis and prevention, 201-206.
Sun Shu-peng. (2007). “Study and Design of Automotive Tire Pressure Monitoring
System.” Hefei: Hefei University of Technology.
Shao Hui. (2008). “ Safety System Engineering.” Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press.
Wang Zepeng,Gao Feng, Xue Fengxian. (2007). “ Relationship of Test Between Tire
Pressure and Its Main Factors.” Journal of Agricultural Machinery,

 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 866
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206-208.
Yao Ming. (2004). “ Study on the Factors Leading to Tire Burst and Measures.”
World Motor, 106-107.
Zhang Yuqin, Tang Yaming, Wang Jinqiao. (2007). “Analysis of the Causes of Tire
Burst on the Highway and Preventive Measures.” Highway Traffic Science
and Technology, 92-94.

 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 867
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A Model for Assessment Collision Risk Degree of Ships in Sight of Another

Yunming QIU 1, 2，Wencai CHEN1，Wei WANG 1，Gan ZHANG 1

1
Zhenjiang Watercraft College, Zhenjiang 212003, China; Tel: 15972985929; email:
qiuyunming@sohu.com
2
School of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063; email:
yunmingqiu @163.com

ABSTRACT: Ship evaluation factors of navigation risks are determined according

to the principles of choice evaluation factors and the practical situations of ship
collisions in sight of another. Collision risk assessment criterions have about three
circumstances of crossing situation. These circumstances being head on taking
situation and overtaking situation are established according to some ship collision
data which will be analyzed. With the help of Delphi, Analysis Hierarchy Process
(AHP) and Fuzzy theories, a comprehensive fuzzy mathematical model for
assessment collision risk degree (CRD) with some subordinate degree functions can
be constructed. According to comparisons with other BP network models and the
truth, the present CRD model in this paper is practicable and credible because the
CRD assessment results for many ships encountering are basically agreed with BP
network model and the truth. The research indicates that the fuzzy mathematical
model can provide some scientific decisions and references for ship commanders.
1 INTRODUCTION
With the increase in numbers, tonnage, and velocities of traffic flow of ships for
the development of the marine transportation, people begin to pay attention to the
collision risk degree (CRD) for ship navigation. Specialists and scholars, both at
home and abroad, always adopt traffic theory to conduct research in collision. These
approaches are as follows: encounter times of ships and the collision historical data
of ships in a particular area, as well as neural networks technology. These approaches
can be used to predict CRD, but none have acknowledged the assessment method of
CRD. It is well known that subordinate degree functions of every assessing factor
can improve the precision of quantitative assessment CRD based on Fuzzy
mathematics, if these functions are found. In addition, collision casualties in the three
circumstances of head-on, crossing, and overtaking are large. Therefore, a CRD
model based on subordinate degree functions of assessment factor is established, and
then is compared with other neural networks model and the truth.

2 ASSESSMENT FACTORS SYSTEM OF CRD IN SIGHT OF ANOTHER

When multiple factors are obtained, five principles need to be taken into
consideration as listed: science, relative independence, main element, comparability
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 868
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and measurability. The number of assessment factors should be neither more nor less
than the above. The basic principle of selecting factors is that important and principal
factors should be selected in comprehensive analysis (Yunming, 2009; Yuejin, 1999).
Presently, an automatic radar plotting aid (ARPA) is adopted in some ships.
ARPA can judge the existence of risk in collisions between a ship and target ship (or
coming ship) by two essential information listed: DCPA (distance to closest point of
approach) and TCPA (time to closest point of approach).TCPA has correlativity with
encounter circumstances, relative speeds, and distances between ships. Therefore, a
decision can be made if there is any danger of collision between a ship and target
ship based on the above-mentioned multi-factors assessment principles. Selection of
some factors can be chosen as listed: relative distance (D), ship velocity (Ub), and
target ship velocity (Ut), collision angle (θ), relative bearing (B), displacement (V),
and ship maneuverability (M). In order to analyze quantitatively in the assessment of
overtaking situations, the ratio between the velocity of target ship and the velocity of
a ship must substitute the velocity of the target ship. In this research paper, score of
ship maneuverability denotes a ship’s performance whether it is superior or inferior.
Finally, in term of the above five principles, the basic principle and analysis, the
multi-factor assessment system are as shown in table 1, which is established based on
expert investigation and minimum mean square error method.
Table1. Multi-factor assessment system of CRD in Sight of another.
Factors Code name Symbol of assessment set
relative distance between two ships D u1
own ship velocity Ub u2
target ship velocity Ut u3
collision angle θ u4
relative bearing angle B u5
Displacement ▽ u6
ship maneuverability M u7

3 FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT MATHEMATICAL MODELS

(Changwen,1992)
3.1 The establishment of assessment factors set
In this paper, the assessment set of factors means all assessment factors
constitute one set. According to the assessment system, the set is obtained as listed:
U = {u1 , u2 , u3 , u4 , u5 , u6 , u7 } . The means of u1 , u2 , u3 , u4 , u5 , u6 , u7 are as shown in table

1.
3.2 The establishment of assessment set
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 869
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In this paper, the assessment set means that the evaluation results constitute one
set, which is V = {v1 , v2 , , vm } , where V j ( j = 1, 2, , m) denotes one result of

evaluation; m denotes evaluation grade or comment grade.

According to the fuzzy assessment mathematical method combined with the
conventional means for evaluating risk, five risk grades are introduced to appraise
CRD: A grade risk, B grade risk, C grade risk, D grade risk, E grade risk. They are
respectively considered to be extraordinary risk, great risk, some risk, lower risk, and
very low risk. For computational convenience, let
V = {v1 , v2 , , vm } = {v1 , v2 , , v5 } = {−2, −1, 0,1, 2}

3.3 The establishment of subordinate degree functions

3.3.1The establishment of the collision risk assessment criterion
In fuzzy establishment, it is important to establish accurately the subordinate
degree of every assessment factor. In order to establish these functions, other
research and applications in the assessment of CRD and researched the practical
circumstance of ships was used. There was an analyzation of the head on taking
situation because this situation is the most dangerous out the above-mentioned three
circumstances. According to the international collision avoidance rules at sea and
related references (Yunming,2005;Xianglin,2003; Zhaolin,2001; Jingsong,1999), the
CRD assessment criterions of every factor are obtained as shown in table2.
Table2. Collision risk assessment criterions of every factor assessment.
factors risk(E) risk(D) risk (C) risk (B) risk(A)
relative distance
≥8 8～6 6～4 4～2 ≤2
(n mile)
own ship velocity (kn ) 0～5 5～10 10～15 15～20 20

target ship velocity (kn ) （＊）

0～5 5～10 10～15 15～20 20

Two ship velocities ratio

1.0～1.2 1.2～1.5 1.5～1.8 1.8～2.0 ≥2
(overtaking situation)
collision angle θ (degree ) 0～67.5 67.5～90 90～112.5 112.5～174 174～180

bearing angle (degree ) 112.5～180 90～112.5 45～90 6～45 0～6

displacement▽（ton） ≤20 20～100 100～500 500～3000 ≥3000

Score of ship maneuverability

95～100 90～95 80～90 70～80 ≤70
superior or inferior
There is an explanation of table 2 as follows: (1) calculation of relative bearing
angle of ship in term of 1800. For example, 0～60 means port or starboard 0～60. (2)
Two ship velocities ratio means the ratio of the velocity of an overtaking ship to an
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 870
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overtaken ship.(3) The velocity with symbol ＊ in table 2 denotes the velocity of
the coming ship in the crossing situation and head on taking situation.
3.3.2The establishment of subordinate degree functions
In order to ensure the evaluation model to have maneuverability as well as
authenticity, every factor subordinate degree function based on the collision risk
assessment criterions was established in the above-mentioned table 2. The method of
generalized bell shape graph and the modification was done by MATLAB
(Yunming,2001).
For an example, to take relative distance D, the subordinate degree function of
the factor was established. The function graph is obtained as shown in figure1.

Figure1. The subordinate degree function of the relative distance D factor.

(Other subordinate degree functions are omitted here due to limited space)
In this paper, the establishment of subordinate degree functions of the relative
distance D factor is expressed as:
⎧ 0 x ≤ 5.5
⎧ 0 x ≤ 7.5 ⎪1 1
⎪ + sin π ( x − 6) 5.5 < x ≤ 6.5
⎪1 1 π ⎪2 2
⎪ ⎪
μ22 ( x) = ⎨ + sin ( x − 8.0) 7.5 < x ≤ 8.5 μ21 ( x) = ⎨ 1 6.5 < x ≤ 7.5
⎪2 2 0.4
⎪1 1
⎪⎩ 1 8.5 < x ⎪ − sin π ( x − 8) 7.5 < x ≤ 8.5
⎪2 2
⎪⎩ 0 8.5 < x
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 871
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

⎧ 0 x ≤ 3.5
⎪ 1 1 ⎧ 0 x ≤ 1.8
⎪ + sin π ( x − 4) 3.5 < x ≤ 4.5 ⎪1 1 π
⎪ + sin ( x − 2.15) 1.8 < x ≤ 2.5
⎪ 2 2 ⎪2 2
⎪ ⎪
0.7
μ20 ( x ) = ⎨ 1 4.5 < x ≤ 5.5 μ2 ( x) = ⎨
−1
1 2.5 < x ≤ 3.5
⎪1 1 ⎪ 1 1
⎪ − sin π ( x − 6.0) 5.5 < x ≤ 6.5 ⎪ − sin π ( x − 4) 3.5 < x ≤ 4.5
⎪2 2 ⎪ 2 2
⎪⎩ 0 6.5 < x ⎪⎩ 0 4.5 < x

⎧ 1 x ≤ 1.8
⎪1 1 π
⎪ (1)
μ 2−2 ( x) = ⎨ − sin ( x − 2.15) 1.8 < x ≤ 2.5
⎪2 2 0.7
⎪⎩ 0 2.5 < x

3.4 The obtainment of weights of evaluation factors

The investigating forms had been distributed to some relevant 30 experts and 27
investigating forms were resumed. In the end, the numbers of effective forms are 26.
Geometrical-mean method was adopted to work and sum up these effective forms,
and obtained every factor evaluation matrix. In order to calculate the largest Eigen
value and its correspondence Eigenvector (weight) of the matrix, a simple and
convenient method, which is Root Method (Yuejin,1999;Yunming,2005), is adopted
because the comprehensive matrix is converse and positive matrix by AHP method.
In calculation of the weighs of factors, the weights of D, Ub, Ut,θ, B, ▽, M are
obtained respectively, by MATLAB software. The weighs are as follows:
W = [ 0.276,0.167,0.198,0.075,0.083,0.084,0.135]

3.5 Building evaluation model (Changwen, 1992)

The valuation matrix of single factor can be obtained from the subordinate
degree function of every factor. The evaluation result of every single factor serves as
one row to constitute a matrix which is single factor evaluation set. The whole matrix
R includes all obtained information according to evaluating by assessment factors set
U. The final result are described as:
⎡ r11 r12 ... r1m ⎤
⎢r r ... r2 m ⎥⎥
B = W R = ( w1 , w2 ,..., wn ) ⎢ 21 22
⎢ ... ... ... ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎣ rn1 rn 2 ... rnm ⎦
(2)
Where W and R denote weigh set and matrix of subordinate degree, respectively.
In our study, n=8, m=5.
In settlement of fuzzy algorithm, two kinds of proper methods are usually as
follows:
(1)Standing out main factors （∧，∨）
The method is described as:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 872
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n
b j = ∨( wi ∧ r ij ) (3)
i =1

The method considers only main and outstanding factors, but other factors are
of no effect. The kind model is best in individual factor optimum.

(2) A weighted mean value（·, ⊕ )

The weighted mean value (WMV) method is described as:
b j = ( w1 i r1 j ) ⊕ ( w2 i r2 j ) ⊕ ⊕ ( wi i rij ) (4)

Where α ⊕ β = min(1, (α + β )) ，(j=1,2,3, …,m).

The weighted mean value model can give consideration to weights of all factors
and be applied in comprehensive optimal objectives.
Based on the above analysis of the two kind fuzzy algorithms, A Weighted Mean
Value fuzzy algorithm is adopted.
Fuzzy comprehensive assessment results are fuzzy vectors. The final assessment
result is established by anti-fuzzy method. That is to say, the final assessment grade
vector should give a precise result. Usual methods are maxi subordinate degrees, and
a weighted mean value which is also centric method. In this paper, WMV method is
adopted, and the assessment result of assessment set v j is based on this method.

This is expressed as:

m

∑b v
j =1
j j

V = (5)
m

∑b j =1
j

Where b j 　(j = 1, 2,3, , m) denotes weigh of factor. V value belongs

m m
to −2 ∼ +2 . If b j normalize, ∑b
j =1
j = 1 and V = ∑ b j v j
j =1

The obtained V value is CRD of ship navigation. The assessment method takes
into account the contribution of each element in fuzzy subsets and reflects the exact
value of fuzzy vectors information.

4 MODEL APPLICATION AND COMPARISON

The above evaluation model in §3.(5) can predict CRD of aship among three
target ships. The velocity of a ship is 14kn, and the course is 600.The scores of two
ship maneuverability are both about 85. The predict CRD applied in fuzzy evaluation
mode is FCRD. The results of FCRD are shown as in table 3.The units of each factor
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 873
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in table 3 are the same as table 2. BCRD1 denotes the evaluation result based on
Neural Networks (Xide,2001). The predicted values of BCRD1 about the three target
ships are 0.66, 0.5, and 0.41, respectively. For the convenience of comparison,
BCRD2 is the conversion of BCRD1.
According to FCRD comparison with BCRD2, the results shown in table 3 are
in substantial agreement. The predicted results of FCRD by the fuzzy assessment
model are higher than that of BCRD2, but they are in conformity with the principle
of vessel collision avoidance and beneficial to accidents being averted by careful
driving. On the other hand, the FCRD assessment results are basically in agreement
with the calculation results by using radar and rich experience captains’ judgment.
Therefore, the predict FCRD results can be used as a reference for the
decision-making during the navigation.
Table3. RD predicting results.
Target B (coming ship) (0) Course Θ Ut D ▽ FCRD BCRD2 Grade of CRD
ships by FCRD

1 45（port） 125 65 16 3.7 1500 -0.76 -0.64 B～C，deflected to B

2 42（starboard） 1 59 15 4 500 -0.11 0 B～C，deflected to C

3 175（starboard） 36 24 8 5 500 0.27 0.36 C～D，deflected to D

5 CONCLUSIONS
The following may be concluded:
(1) The FCRD results according to the BP Neural Networks results and the truth,
specifically with the principle of vessel collision avoidance. Sometimes the FCRD
results have some error because collective data have some drawbacks in the adopted
data scope and depth, and so on, but the analysis and assessment results are correct.
(2) The weighs of every factor should be changed with different navigation
environments, rherefore, research should be done the variation weighs arithmetic so
that the improved CRD model becomes more practical and more reasonable in the
future.
(3) If the model applies in automatic collision-avoidance system of ships, the
system will be developed and consummated. The CRD assessment model and the
research results may direct ship operators in the future.

References
Yunming, QIU.,Zuyuan,LIU(2009). “Risk assessment of damaged ship based on grey
clustering theory”. Chengdu, International conference on transportation
engineeringt., ASCE, v(2), 1731-1733.
Yunming QIU.,Weijiong,CHEN.,Jinbiao,CHEN.,(2005). Comprehensive
environment assessment of navigation safety in river port channels by sea. ,
Navigation of China.64(3):41-45
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 874
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Xianglin,FANG.,Jie,YAO.,etal(2003).Vessel traffic and handing safety system

evaluation models and methods. Dalian, Maritime University press.
Xide,CHEN.,Zuyuan,LIU(2001)., Calculation ship collision risk degree in Wide
Waters based on an Improved BP neural network. ship and ocean
engineering research.143: 91-93.
Zhaolin,WU.,(2001). Research of preventing collisions at sea and transportation
safety. Dalian, Maritime University press.
Yuejin,TAN.Yingwu，CHEN.,et al(1999). System engineering principle.Changsha,
National Defense Science and Technology University Press.
Jingsong,ZHAO.,Fengchen,WANG.,etal(1999).Principle of Collision Avoidance of
Ships.Dalian, Maritime University press.
Changwen,XU(1992).Fuzzy mathematics applied in ship engineering. Beijing:
national defense industry press.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 875
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Safety Evaluation of Bridge-Tunnel Sections on Mountainous Expressway Based

on Bayesian Network

Yujia TIAN1 Hong CHEN2 Baixiu LIU3 Dianliang XIAO4

13
Traffic Engineering Department, Highway College, Chang'an University, Mailbox
487, Shaanxi Xi'an, 710064; PH :86-29-82334886; email: sean8205@126.com
2
Traffic Engineering Department, Highway College, Chang'an University, Mailbox
487, Shaanxi Xi'an, 710064; PH :86-29-82334432; email: hongchen82@126.com
4
China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Ministry of Communications, No.240
Huixinli, Chaoyang District,Beijing,100029, China; email: sean8205@163.com

ABSTRACT
With the rapid development of mountainous expressways ， the traffic
accidents increase obviously on bridge-tunnel sections，which brings new challenges
to traffic safety protection on mountainous expressways. Based on the traffic
accident data of Tongchuan section on Baotou-Maoming expressway, this paper
carries out an in-depth study on traffic safety of mountainous expressway
bridge-tunnel sections and sets up the safety evaluation system of bridge-tunnel
sections on mountainous expressway based on Bayesian network. It is helpful to
further identify potential threats and to provide guidance for future construction.

1. INTRODUCTION
With the rapid development of China's expressway construction and the
implementation of large-scale development in the western region, construction of
expressways to promote local economic development in underdeveloped
mountainous areas has become an important task of highway construction. At present,
with the number and length of bridges and tunnels increasing, the proportion of
bridges and tunnels on mountainous expressways becomes larger which has resulted
in adverse effects on the operating environment. The frequency of traffic accidents
makes mountainous expressways worth investigating, especially the bridge-tunnel
sections which become a bottleneck of traffic (Liu, 2009), which restricts the
development of highway transportation.
Focusing on the specific characteristics of bridge-tunnel sections on
mountainous expressways, this paper tries to establish a safety evaluation system and
find out the potential hidden dangers of accidents and provide guidance for sorting
and strategy for safety improvement.

2. OVERVIEW OF BAYESIAN NETWORK

Bayesian Network (BN) is the Web-based graphic description which was first
proposed formally by J. Pearl (Pearl,1 988). A probability integral is used in the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 876
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Bayesian network to show uncertainty; it is called Bayesian integration or

conditional probability. Conditional probability is described as: the probability x of
occurrence B under A is given.
P(A | B) = x (1)
The conversion formula is:
P( B A) P( A)
P( A B) = (2)
P( B)
In general, the Bayesian network model is generally determined by using the
correction algorithm or update algorithm (Yu et al., 2004). The process is shown in
Figure 1.

Prior Data Bayesian Methods Posterior

Bayesian Network
T T Bayesian Network
T T

Figure 1. Bayesian network is continually updated.

T Bayesian network framed by priori knowledge is called the priori Bayesian

A

network, and a priori Bayesian network compared with the data is called a posteriori
Bayesian network. We can see from the concept of a Bayesian network that on a set
of variables TX ={X1,X2,…,Xn}, their joint probability distribution P is (T. Yu et al.,
2004):T
n
P ( X 1 , X 2 ,..., X n ) = ∏ P ( X i Parent ( X i )) (3)
i =1

T Bayesian network inference is mainly the process of calculating the probability

A A A

values rapidly by using a Bayesian network which is a kind of joint probability

distribution of the variable. There are some main advantages of bridge-tunnel section
safety evaluation on mountainous expressways based on Bayesian network. The
advantages are as follows.
1. Powerful capabilities of knowledge representation and inference. The factors
which influence traffic accidents on bridge-tunnel sections can be achieved by the
combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, which make the
evaluation model more precise, scientific and reasonable. 2. Flexible learning
mechanism. Bayesian networks can form a highly efficient and flexible learning
mechanism which is similar to human learning and cognitive processes. 3. It can
effectively integrate multiple experts in different views. Experts’ different opinions
are reflected to the final outcome of the evaluation by BN in Bayesian network,
which is very applicable to the situation when experts’ opinions are contradictory. 4.
Flexible information inference capability. By using Bayesian networks to infer, on
the one hand evaluation results of the safety of bridge-tunnel sections can be
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 877
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obtained, on the other hand the sensitive element of accidents in bridge-tunnel

section can be find out after post-diagnostic reasoning. 5.Intuitive and clear
reasoning result. Bayesian networks describe the use of graphic data or variables of
the dependencies and causation.

3. EVALUATION OF BRIDGE-TUNNEL SECTIONS ON MOUNTAINOUS

EXPRESSWAY BASED ON BAYESIAN NETWORK
T Establishment of evaluation index system. According to the accident
causation of bridge-tunnel sections on mountainous expressways, the framework
map of the evaluation index in the following can be constructed and is shown in
Figure 2.
Horizontal Curve Radius(S1)
Road
Longitudinal Gradient(S2)
Alignment(B1)
Combination of Horizontal
and Longitudinal Design (S3)

Traffic Sign(S4)

Traffic Marking(S5)
Traffic
Installation of Barrier and
Engineering
Revetment(S6)
Facility(B2)
The Safety of Bridge- Lighting Facility(S7)
tunnel Sections on
Mountainous Visual Transition Facility (S8)
Expressway （A）
Surface Evenness (S9)
Pavement
Condition (B3) Skid Resistance
Condition(S10)
Climatic Frequency in
Climatic Rain,Snow and Fog(S11)
Environment(B4) Frequency of Other Natural
Disasters(S12)

Average Daily Traffic(S13)

Traffic Volume
(B5) Truck Proportion(S14)
T

Figure 2. Safety evaluation index system of bridge-tunnel sections on

mountainous expressway.
Safety evaluation modeling and probabilistic reasoning update. The basic
steps of Bayesian network modeling are: ①Determine the variables and the network
topology; ②Node assignment of Bayesian network; ③Inference of Bayesian
network. In practice, the above steps are alternately in modeling process (Zhan et al.,
T

2003). T T

U Construction of Bayesian Network Topology for Safety Evaluation Model of

Bridge-tunnel Sections on Mountainous Expressway. From the analysis of the safety
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 878
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evaluation index system of bridge-tunnel sections on mountainous expressways

shown in Figure 1, it can be seen that the relationship between each indicator and its
upper indicator is the aggregate connection in the way of local connections in
Bayesian network (Luo et al., 2001), that is, the upper index is inferred from the
lower index. Therefore, Bayesian network topology for safety evaluation model of
bridge-tunnel sections on mountainous expressway is built and shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3. The BN structure of safety evaluation on bridge-tunnel sections on

mountainous expressway.

U Node assignment of Bayesian network. ①Determine the conditional

probability table of each node in BN. The accident probability P of bridge-tunnel
sections on mountainous expressways is the target segment of safety assessment. The
conditional probability table of each node in Bayesian network is established as
follows according to the logical relationship between the indicators of each layer.
T The analysis shows that, the indicator A of bridge-tunnel section safety is
measured by 5 first layer indicators which are: road alignment (B1), traffic facility
(B2), pavement condition (B3), climatic environment (B4) and traffic volume (B5).
If there is one taking place among the B1-B5, then A is very likely to occur. If some
indicator index value (the probability of leading to accident) is high, the security of
bridge-tunnel section will be low, even if other index values are very low. In addition,
for some unpredictable factors, even if the five index values are 0, the total target A
are also still likely to occur (although the probability is so little). This situation can
be expressed easily by a conditional probability table in Bayesian network. Each
non-root node in Bayesian network topology in shown in Figure 3, such as A, B1-B5,
and their conditional probability table can be determined by this method.
② Experts’ advice is synthesized by BN to update the marginal probability of
T
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 879
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node. On the evaluation of bridge-tunnel section safety, the assignment of many

index values depends mainly on empirical knowledge of experts. The individual
differences in experts need to take the effective build-up of the different views of
different experts. This paper proposes the evaluation method by using Bayesian
networks which can deal with uncertainty to gather different experts’ opinions. When
the experts E investigate one target Si T(impact factor) in safety assessment of
bridge-tunnel section, as P(Si| Eij)is easier to get than P(Eij|Si), P(Si| Eij)can be given
by experts first, and then P(Eij|Si) is calculated by Bayesian theorem. In estimating
P(Si|Eij), the expert generally does not give a defined value easily, so range
conversion can be taken and shown in Table 1 (Mao et al., 2002).

Table 1. Interval Value of Experts’ Evaluation.

Agility P(Si= Hi | Cij) P(Si=L0 | Cij)
Very High 0.8-1.0(0.9) 0.0-0.2(0.1)
High 0.6-0.8(0.7) 0.2-0.4(0.3)
Medium 0.4-0.6(0.5) 0.4-0.6(0.5)
Low 0.2-0.4(0.3) 0.6-0.8(0.7)
Very Low 0.0-0.2(0.1) 0.8-1.0(0.9)

According to Bayesian theorem, there are:

P( Si Eij ) P( Eij ) P( Si Eij ) P( Eij )
P( Eij Si ) = =
P ( Si ) P( Si Ei1 = ei1 ) P( Ei1 = ei1 ) + ⋅⋅⋅ + P( Si Eim = eim ) P( Eim = eim )
(4)
P( Si Eij ) P( Eij )
= m

∑ P( S
j =1
i Eij = eij ) P( Eij = eij )

P( Ei1 = ei1 ) =, ⋅⋅⋅, = P( Eim = eim ) = 1/ m can be estimated. According to equation

(2.1), P(Eij|Si) can be calculated by P(Eij) and P(Si | Eij). Thus the modeling of
Bayesian network is completed (Li et al., 2002).
U Update the probability inference. After the Bayesian network model is built, for
one selected section, inference update of P(Si=Yes)can be taken in Bayesian network
according to the criterion of the factors given by various experts on the sections. It is
calculated by the software GeNIe which is created by the University of Pittsburgh
Decision Systems Laboratory for use of the development of decision-making theory
to build graphical models. The criteria of different experts on other indicators are
listed in references (Liu, 2009).
T Safety evaluation of bridge-tunnel section on mountainous expressway.
After construction of Bayesian network model as in the above steps, inferential
analysis can be conducted. It is always called safety assessment that working out the
accident probability of bridge-tunnel section on mountainous expressways by
reasoning in Bayesian networks evaluation criteria (Cheng et al., 2004). Before
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 880
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evaluating the safety of bridge-tunnel sections on mountainous expressways, an

evaluation criteria should be identified to four levels referring to the security level of
roadside risk (Tang et al., 2004). That is, if P(A=Yes) in [0,0.2], the security level is 1;
in [0.2,0.4], the security level is 2; in the [0.4,0.6], the security level is 3, in [0.6,1 ],
the security level is 4. It indicates that the greater the risk, the higher the level.

4. APPLICATION EXAMPLE
According to the safety evaluation index system previously established, this
paper builds the Bayesian Network Topology for safety evaluation model of
bridge-tunnel sections on mountainous expressways on the basis of traffic accident
statistics of Tongchuan section on Baotou-Maoming expressway by using the
software of GeNIe, which is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4. Bayesian network topology for safety evaluation model of

bridge-tunnel sections on mountainous expressway.
T The state of security effect factor on one bridge-tunnel section is known,
indicating that the marginal probability of root node in evaluation model is known.
Then the accident probability P(A=Yes) can be obtained by model-based reasoning.
Specifically, the marginal probability of root node in evaluation model can be
obtained by gathering experts’ views, and the updated marginal probability is shown
in Table 2. Finally the accident probability P(A=Yes)=0.784 is gained in Figure 5.
According to the criteria of security level, the security level of this bridge-tunnel
section is 4 with a larger risk. So we should focus on the characteristics of traffic
accidents and choose effective improvement measures to reduce traffic accidents and
losses.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 881
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Figure 5. The result of safety assessment of bridge-tunnel section on

mountainous expressway.

Table 2. The Evaluation of Different Experts on Impact Factors.

T

TImpact FactorsT Si Actual Value P(Si =Yes| Eij)

Horizontal Curve Radius S 1 SB1B 350m P (S1=Yes | e11, e22, e32)=0.721

Longitudinal Gradient S2 3.5% P (S2=Yes | e13, e22, e32)=0.354

Combination of Horizontal and

medium P (S3=Yes | e12, e22, e32)=0.460
Longitudinal Design S3

Traffic Sign S4 poor P (S4=Yes | e11, e21, e31)=0.927

Traffic Marking S5 medium P (S5=Yes | e12, e22, e32)=0.361

Installation of Barrier and

medium P (S6=Yes | e12, e22, e32)=0.335
Revetment S6

Lighting Facility S7 medium P (S7=Yes | e12, e22, e32)= 0.326

Visual Transition Facility S8 poor P (S8=Yes | e11, e21, e31)= 0.931

Surface Evenness S9 medium P (S9=Yes | e12, e22, e32)= 0.400

Skid Resistance Condition S10 medium P (S10=Yes | e12, e22, e32)= 0.576

Climatic Frequency in Rain,Snow

40d/a P (S11=Yes | e12, e22, e32)= 0.427
and Fog S11

Frequency of Other Natural

3d /a P (S12=Yes | e12, e22, e32)= 0.379
Disasters S12
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 882
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Average Daily Traffic S13 6564pcu/d P (S13=Yes | e11, e21, e31)= 0.934

Truck Proportion S14 big P (S14=Yes | e11, e21, e31)= 0.959

5. CONCLUSION
T This paper builds a safety evaluation index system of bridge-tunnel sections on
mountainous expressways and a Bayesian network evaluation model to gather
experts’ knowledge and experience effectively. The analysis of the application
example provides reference and basis for discovering potential accidents and setting
up safety improvement measures.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This paper was supported by the Research Project of Traffic Application Basis
(2008-319-812-020). The authors benefit greatly from the extensive discussion with
the operators of Key Laboratory of Highway Engineering in Special Region of
Ministry of Education and inspiring suggestions of Chang’an University professors.
The authors take sole responsibility for all views and opinions expressed in the paper.

REFERENCES
Cheng, G.R. and Kelly, J. (2002). “Learning Bayesian Networks from data: An
Efficient Approach Based on Information-Theory.” Artificial Intelligence.
Cheng, Zekai; Lin, Shimin; Lu, Yuchang. (2004). “MBNC: The Experiment Platform
for Bayesian Classifiers Based on Matlab.” Fudan University (Natural
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Liu, Baixiu. “Safety Evaluation and Improvement Measures of Mountainous
Highway Bridge-Tunnel Sections,” Master’s Thesis, Xi’an, China, Jul. 2009.
Luo, Xia and He Minglu. (2001). “On Modern Logistics′s Development Trend.
Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 18(5):98- 101.
Pearl, J. (1988). “Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems.” Networks of
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Tang, Zhengzheng and He, Yong. (2004). “Guideline for Implementation of Highway
Safety Enhancement Project.” Research Institute of Highway Ministry of
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Yu, Dongfeng and Sun, Yaolin. (2004). “On Uncertain Inference Based on the
Bayesian Network.” Microcomputer Applications, 20(8):6-8.
Zhan, Yuanrui; Xie, Qiuping; Li, Xu. (2003). “The Application of Bayesian Network
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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 883
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A Simulation-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model

For Emergency Management on the Hangzhou Bay Bridge

Shu HAN1, Shouen FANG2, Xuesong WANG3, Xiaohong CHEN4, Yiyi CAI5
1
Ph.D Candidate, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of
Education, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Road, Shanghai, 201804, P.R. of China;
PH: +86-21-69584683; FAX: +86-21-65982897; email: xysue2001@tongji.edu.cn
2
Ph.D, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Road, Shanghai, 201804, P.R. of China; PH:
+86-21-69584683; FAX: +86-21-65982897; email: fangsek@tongji.edu.cn
3
Ph.D, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Road, Shanghai, 201804, P.R. of China; PH:
+86-21-65989270; FAX: +86-21-65982897; email: xuesong98@gmail.com
4
Ph.D, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Road, Shanghai, 201804, P.R. of China; PH:
+86-21-65989270; FAX: +86-21-65982897; email: chenxh@tongji.edu.cn
5
Ms. Candidate, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of
Education, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Road, Shanghai, 201804, P.R. of China;
PH: +86-21-69584683; FAX: +86-21-65982897; email:
caiyiyi_2006@yahoo.com.cn

ABSTRACT
The freeway network is the backbone of regional geographic space and the bond
of business activities, the construction of which determined the extent and depth of
interaction among different geospatial units. Traffic incidents and bad weather will
decrease the road capacity of a freeway, and have a significant impact on traffic flows.
Bridges and tunnels are important components of freeways, which is much more fragile
leading to a traffic jam for a longer time in wider areas. Taking the impacts of network
topology, traffic control measures and traffic demand into account, Dynamic Traffic
Assignment can analyze network performance characteristics and provide support for
decision-making under an emergency. Hangzhou Bay Bridge is part of Shenyang-Zhuhai
Freeway as well as part of the freeway network in the Around Hangzhou Bay Area. In
this paper, a simulation-based DTA model is employed to evaluate the effectiveness of
dynamic assignment using a freeway network in Around Hangzhou Bay Area, and assess
the impacts of designed incident scenarios, as well as compare traffic situations of
different traffic control strategies and information provisions. The results show that
dynamic traffic assignment presents better performance over the static traffic assignment
under an emergency. It shows that the network performance is sensitive to the duration
of the emergency situation, which indicates that a timely clearance of an emergency and
quick response of operators benefit not only the emergency site and surroundings but
also the whole network. Moreover, travel time savings and traffic delay reduction can be
realized as a result of Route Guidance System, which implies that the deployment of ITS
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 884
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technologies can reduce the undesirable impacts of emergencies on traffic operations.

BACKGROUND
Hangzhou Bay Bridge is a tunnel connecting Ningbo, Shanghai and Jiangsu
Province, forming a V shape layout of transportation network around Hangzhou Bay
Area into A shape. The overall length of the bridge is 36 kilometers, which is the longest
cross-sea bridge in the world as well as an important component of the freeway network
in this area (Figure 1). The bridge has 6 lanes with the speed limit of 100km/h. After
entering the bridge, vehicles have no another alternative routes to choose in case of
emergency. Under such circumstances, traffic jams in large areas might happen, and the
level of service of the whole network will decrease significantly and this situation will
last for a long time. Besides, complexity and levity of natural environment determines
the recurrent appearance of typhoon, crosswind, tides, jet-stream, rain-storm, fog and so
on which are potential safety risks. Moreover, the northern bridge has a heavy traffic
with high speed; some of them don’t slow down as going around curve where traffic
accidents are likely to happen. According to the statistical analysis of traffic accident
data in May, 2009, there are 436 accidents in the bridge caused by rear-end collisions,
punctured tires, cast anchor and so on, leading to lane closure in certain areas 32 times,
while the total number of closure is 386 times from January to May, 2009. In
consideration of severity and impact of emergencies, corresponding control strategies
should be designed. Meanwhile, freeway has become an important traffic mode that
adapts to the development of the modern industries with higher capacity and speed as
the modern transportation facilities. Recently, the freeway construction in our country is
developing rapidly. A 24,700-kilometers freeway was constructed during the Tenth Five
Plan, and the overall length of freeway has reached 75,000 kilometers by June, 2009,
ranking second in the world after the United States. Freeways play an important role in
the regional transportation network; it will lead to serious consequences such as traffic
congestion and great economic losses. Therefore, timely and effective measures should
be taken under emergency. Moreover, our country has a vast territory and abundant
resources like rivers, mountains, bridges and tunnels are an integral part of the freeway
network. The research on traffic safety has developed rapidly, however there is few
research concerning traffic safety of bridges and tunnels of freeways; therefore, it is
necessary to do some research on traffic organization techniques in this kind of traffic
facilities under emergency.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 885
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(a) Map of Bridge’s Location (b) Map of Freeway Network

Figure 1. Map of Network showing Hangzhou Bay Bridge’s Location.

Traffic accidents and natural or man-made disasters can impose significant safety
risks and disruptions on traffic flows. It is necessary for transportation agencies to
understand its impact on traffic of a large area. Traffic assignment is an effective way to
describe the distribution of traffic flow in network, and is also the foundation of
developing emergency responses. Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) is a powerful tool
with which transportation agencies can improve their management plans through the
evaluation of diversion strategies and information provision for travelers. This research
focuses on the development of a model which allows engineers to understand fairly well
how traffic flow behaves and how to develop response strategies in order to minimize
the impact of the emergencies. A simulation-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment model
is performed for the research within VISSIM environment, and simulation tests are
conducted on Hangzhou Bay Region to showcase that the Dynamic Traffic Assignment
capabilities are superior to Static Traffic Assignment; then some case studies are
presented to evaluate the impacts of emergencies and to model corresponding
management strategies and relevant Intelligent Transportation System technologies.

THE STATE-OF-ART REVIEWED

Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) has substantially evolved in the last two
decades and has reached a sufficient level of maturity to be used in a number of planning
and operational applications; DTA models are used to estimate the time-varying network
conditions by capturing traffic flow and route choice behavior. The shortcomings of
Static Assignment models have occasionally been discussed widely in dealing with
time-varying flows. Currently, agencies use static assignment models for an array of
planning applications such as infrastructure improvement evaluation, air quality impact
to congestion management systems, traffic maintenance and so on. However, Static
Assignment is unable to account for traffic control, information provision, traffic
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dynamics and temporal elements of users’ behavior, which makes their suitability for
certain applications, such as evaluating ITS technologies, and traditional planning
studies questionable.
The various approaches of Dynamic Traffic Assignment can be classified into
four broad methodologiy groups: Mathematical Programming, Optimal Control,
Variational Inequality and Simulation-based, and the first three groups are further
labeled as analytical approaches. Simulation-based DTA models use a traffic simulator
to replicate the complex traffic flow dynamics, critical for developing meaningful
strategies for operating. The critical constraints that describe the traffic flow propagation
and the spatio-temporal interactions, such as the link-path incidence relationships, flow
conservation, and vehicular movements, are addressed through simulation instead of
analytical evaluation. Labeled as the predictive-iterative mode, the simulation-based
model is used to project the future traffic conditions as part of the direction-finding
mechanism and has significant implications for the real-time. Several simulation-based
DTA models are currently available for real world deployment and have already gained
sophistication and significant acceptability; this section describes and compares several
well-known simulation-based DTA models.
The INTEGRATION software is a microscopic traffic assignment and simulation
model which is developed by Van Aerde in 1980s (1988). It’s a trip-based microscopic
traffic assignment, simulation, and optimization model that is capable of modeling
networks of up to 10,000 links and 500,000 vehicle departures. The model simulates the
departures of vehicles from a time-varying origin-destination (O-D) table. Vehicles are
assigned to the network using a time-varying multi-class traffic assignment.
Mahmassani et al. (1993) presented a simulation-based assignment model called
Dynamic Network for Advanced Road Telematics (DYNASMART). The model
simulates the movement of individual vehicles using a macroscopic speed-density
relationship that is a modified version of Greenshield’s equation. Abdelghany and
Mahmassani (2001) extended the simulator capability to capture bus movements.
Ben-Akiva et al. (1997a, 1997b) propose DynaMIT as a Dynamic Traffic
Assignment system to estimate and predict in real-time, current and future traffic
conditions. It is a mesoscopic traffic simulator and consists of a demand and a supply
simulator that interacts to generate UE route guidance under the rolling horizon
framework. The demand simulator estimates and predicts O-D demand using a Kalman
Filtering methodology, and the supply simulator is used to determine the flow pattern
based on the demand.
VISTA (Visual Interactive System for Transportation Algorithms) is a
mesoscopic model with a Dynamic Traffic Assignment capacity that was developed at
Northwestern University and has been successfully used on transportation projects
widely (2003). VISTA can simulate the movements of multiple modes across large
networks and incorporate the effects of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) and
traveler information systems into driver behavior.
VISSIM is a microscopic simulation with Dynamic Traffic Assignment
capability that was developed by PTV Co. Ltd. (2008). It has been successfully used on
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 887
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transportation projects widely. VISSIM can simulate vehicles’ movements across large
networks and incorporate the effects of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) and
Route Guidance System for travelers. The optional Dynamic Assignment module is
designed to model the route choice behavior of drivers, thus allowing to model networks
without static routes and instead using the specification of origin-destination matrices as
flow input.
Shelton et al. (2007) proposed a multi-mode choice assignment approach
implemented in DYNASMART-P that assigns different modes of vehicles with paths
reflecting respective conditions to different modes. The model is used to examine
incident management (including dynamic truck restrictions, dynamic HOV ramps,
dynamic ramp closure and variable pricing) as well congestion management (including
truck restricted ramps, HOV ramps, total ramp closure and a fixed price toll booth) to
determine whether managed ramps improve traffic congestion. The simulation results
show the new capability for DYNASMART-P overcomes the limitations that
microscopic and macroscopic models adherently lack. Rathi et al. (2007) present and
validate a closed-loop framework for the evaluation of the impact of predictive route
guidance in case of severe incidents. The presented framework is implemented through
the integration of the microscopic traffic simulation laboratory MITSIMLab and the
dynamic traffic assignment system DynaMIT, and the model evaluates the impact of
dynamic route guidance in the Lower Westchester County network just north of New
York City. Wirtz et al. (2005) presents a dynamic traffic assignment model as a tool for
pre-planning strategies for managing major freeway incidents using VISTA. The study
aims to test alternate routing and traffic management schemes around simulated
incidents of various scales and durations on I-94, the busy Edens Expressway in the
Chicago, Illinois, metropolitan area. Sisiopiku et al. (2006) showcases the application of
simulation-based DTA models on incident management to analyze the possible
disruption to the existing urban transportation network due to incidents and to assess the
effective of incident response actions. Two case studies are presented and the network
model is developed for Birmingham, Alabama metropolitan area using VISTA. Han &
Yuan (2005) performs a microscopic evacuation simulation study in the event of a major
nuclear power plant accident using VISSIM to conduct a DTA model to route evacuees
in a non-equilibrium environment, which is the case for unplanned or “no-notice”
large-scale disasters, and the consideration of most desirable destinations (MDD) for all
evacuees in a transient traffic network, where a nearby shelter may not be the most
desirable depending on the network condition at the time. In 2009, Han & Yuan (2009)
improves the evacuation models and evaluates the sensibility of measure of effectiveness
choices.
Some research concentrating on the simulation-based Dynamic Traffic
Assignment models has been performed recently in China. Shao et al. (2003) propose a
distributed and parallel algorithm of simulation-based DTA model for real-time
deployment and operation in ITS, the paper also develops an application framework and
procedure using Object-oriented Design technology of the model. Liu (2006) develops
dynamic traffic assignment in consideration of the intersection delay of different turns
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into the assignment calculation; however, the model is not available to freeways. Gao et
al. (2008) simulate the traffic in urban roads with VISSIM based on the Southwest
Second Ring of Beijing including 6 intersections comparing the operation of the regional
road traffic flow before and after the implementation of Route Guidance System. Qin
(2008) designs a multi-mode simulation intersection discrete model to apply dynamic
traffic assignment into ITS, the model is tested on several small network samples and
real data of road network of Yingkou City.
As referred above, there is extensive research on DTA models in domestic, which
have strong constrained assumptions making it unable for practical use. On the other
hand, researchers designed multi scenarios apart from the actual conditions with no
ground truth for testing. Finally, most of the models concentrate on urban roads instead
of freeway, especially under emergency. Challenges arising from this field can’t be
readily accommodated by the existing achievements, therefore research developments
are needed.

MODEL DEVELOPMENT
DTA in VISSIM is implemented via iterative simulations and assignments. In
contrast to the single best route from one zone to another in the static traffic assignment,
traffic volume is distributed among a set of available “best” routes for each OD pair in
DTA. The best route for each OD pair is found in each iterative simulation run based on
user cost in the preceding simulation runs, and collectively an archive of best routes was
built up. Route choice and traffic distribution among the best routes are determined by a
discrete choice model in a Logit Function. In this study, convergence is reached in terms
of a 10% decrease/increase of path travel time. In this study, a simulation-based DTA
model is employed to evaluate the effectiveness of dynamic assignment, assess the
impacts of designed incident scenarios and to analysis the different traffic control
strategies and information provisions. 
1.1 Data Needs and Data Sources
Accurate data is needed in order to develop a DTA model, including route
network, traffic demand, traffic controls, emergency situations and response strategies.
Route network includes geometric information of the network, information on
links such as number of lanes, desired or free-flow speed, and link channelization.
Traffic Demand in VISSIM is in the format of Origin-Destination (OD) trip matrices.
VISSIM allows the user to input either dynamic demand or static demand. The data
includes the origin, destination, vehicle types, and number of vehicles moving in a
24-hour period. Traffic Controls include traffic signals, signs (stop and yield), ramp
meters, and signal preemption options. Emergency situations include the varying
location, the severity and the duration. Response Strategies consist of lane closures,
counter flow or information provisions for travelers.
The study area should be large enough to contain not only the direct effects areas
of incidents but also the indirectly impacted areas, as shown in Figure 2.
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Figure 2. Map of network model.

According to volume data of Shanghai-Hangzhou Freeway and
Hangzhou-Pudong Freeway during 1999 to 2009 as well as the survey data in the Bridge,
the ratios of different vehicle types including cars, buses, small trucks, middle trucks and
long trucks are 57.5%, 6.2%, 11.11%, 11.8% and 13.4% respectively.
The demand data in VISSIM is in the format of Origin-Destination trip matrices.
Dynamic OD trip matrices are departure time based, however, the total number of
vehicles changes very little and is a flat value respectively during a certain time. This
study selects peak hour demand as input during simulation period. There are 19 traffic
analysis zones including Jiaxing, Hangzhou, Shaoxing, and Ningbo and so on. The
survey data in 2004 by Tongji University (2005) is used to estimate travel demand and
assign trips to network in the simulation model.
GEH indictor is chosen for parameters’ validation and calibration in key sections
to make simulation constant with true volume, the formula is shown as follows:
2(ObsVol − SimVol ) 2
GEH =
ObsVol + SimVol
In which, ObsVol stands for truth volume, and SimVol stands for simulation
volume.
The result shows that the GHE value of up-stream direction in the Bridge is 0.18
while the value of the other direction is 1.26, and both of them are less than 5 indicating
a good agreement.
1.2 Simulation Scenarios
The purpose of this study is not only to compare the Dynamic Assignment model
with Static Assignment, but also to evaluate response strategies potentially reducing the
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impact of emergency.
Different scenarios are designed to analyze the impacts of emergencies of
different level of severity and the effectiveness of candidate response strategies. The
incident location consists the upper and middle of the bridge considering the distance
to Haiyan Interchange, the severity is reflected by the number of lanes closed and the
duration of the lane closure, response strategies includes using reversing lanes and
conveying information through relevant ITS technologies such as Route Guidance.
Scenario 1 describes network operations under 30 minutes & a full three-lane
blockage condition and provides the comparison the network performance of dynamic
assignment with static assignment. The travel demand is 800 vehicles per hour per
direction.
Scenario 2 is designed for a comparison by varying speed limitation of 40km/h
and 60km/h in the Bridge only under non-incident conditions.
Scenario 3 is similar to Scenario 2, except that a different severity emergency is
considered, with duration of 30 minutes and 60 minutes, and a blockage of 2 or 3 lanes.
Scenario 4 is similar to Scenario 1 except using reversing lane or providing
traffic information to travelers.
Scenario 5 is identical by varying travel demand in plan year 2015 and 2020
under non-incident conditions.
A summary of different scenarios considered in the study is provided in Table 1.

Table 1. Summary of Study Scenarios.

Emerge
Speed
Travel ncy Lanes Route
Scenar Assignm Reversin Limitati
Demand Duratio Blocke Guidan
io ent g Lane on
Veh/h n d ce
Km/h
min
Dynamic
1 800 30 3 No No No
/Static
Simulati
2 Dynamic 1500 on 0 No 40,60 No
Period
3 Dynamic 1500 30,60 2,3 Yes/No No No
4 Dynamic 1500 30 3 Yes/No No Yes/No
800,150
0,
5 Dynamic None 0 No No No
2745,35
25
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RESULT ANALYSIS
The DTA simulation periods lasts 9600 to 10800s, and data is collected since
3600s when the model runs stably. The network performance can be evaluated through
the distribution of traffic flow, average travel time, average travel speed, delay, volume,
density and so on. The analysis results are presented in this section.
2.1 Comparison of Dynamic and Static Assignment
Table 2 provides network performances for Scenario 1. The table shows average
speed, average delay, total delay, the number of vehicles in network, the number of
vehicles departing network, vehicle miles traveled and total vehicle time of dynamic
assignment and static assignment respectively.

Table 2. Comparison of Dynamic and Static Assignment.

Dynamic Static
Performance
Assignment Assignment
Average Travel Speed [km/h] 71 48
Average Delay [s] 531 1312
Total Delay [h] 7988 33224
Number of Vehicles 26642 50886
Number of Departing Vehicles 27522 40288
Vehicle Miles Traveled [km] 2650989 3485020
Total Vehicle Time [h] 37316 72695
The results show that dynamic traffic assignment presents a better performance
over the static traffic assignment during emergency period. As expected, the average
travel speed has a substantial increase in dynamic assignment by 47.9%, while the
average delay decreased by 59.5%.
2.2 Analysis of Response Strategies
Different response strategies are designed with respect to corresponding level of
severity of the emergency according to Emergency Response Plan. The impact of
corresponding actions is analyzed as follows.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 892
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90.0  1200 
80.0 
1000 

Average Speed（km/h）
70.0 

Average Delay（s）
60.0  800 
50.0 
600 
40.0 
30.0  400 
20.0  Average Speed
200 
10.0  Average Delay
0.0  0 

2‐Lane & 30min 
Limit 40

Limit 60

2‐Lane & 30min

3‐Lane & 30min

2‐Lane & 60min

3‐Lane & 60min
Peak Demand
Daily Demand

&Contraflow
Figure 3. Impacts of Response Strategies.

Comparing the multiple scenarios, the results show that speed limitation has a
minimal effect on the overall network performance. When the emergency duration is 30
minutes, the average travel speed with two-lane closure and three-lane closure is quite
similar with each other. Specifically, the network travel time and delay are sensitive to
the emergency duration. Average delay increases sharply by 328% compared with
non-emergency condition. The reason might be the persistent emergency will have much
wider impact on more vehicles. The results indicate that a timely clearance of an
emergency and quick response of operators benefit not only the emergency site and
surroundings, but also the whole network.
2.3 Impacts of Route Guidance
Different ITS technologies can be implemented within VISSIM. In Scenario 4,
information provision is assumed available to travelers through Route Guidance System.
For demonstration purposes, a compliance of 100% is assumed and information time gap
is 300s. The results for Scenario 4 are summarized in Table 3.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 893
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Table 3. Impacts of Route Guidance.

With
Guidance
Without Reversing With
Performance &
Guidance Link Guidance
Reversing
Link
Average Speed [km/h] 70.5 70.8 74.4 73.2
Average Delay [s] 549 541 437 468
Total Delay [h] 8261 8143 6595 7057
Number of Departing Vehicles 26879 27177 28578 28383
Vehicle Miles Traveled [km] 2642939 2646377 2742121 2712483
Total Vehicle Time [h] 37499 37387 36840 37049
Table 3 conducts that Route Guidance System has a significant impact on
network performance. Travel time increases by 5.5% with information provision, even
higher than that under non-emergency condition. Reversing lane has a little impact on
network performance, especially when employing reversing lane and Route Guidance
simultaneously. The reason might be the special location of the bridge, which is across
the sea reducing the distance significantly between Shanghai and Ningbo. Vehicles
would prefer to wait rather than chose an alternative route under minor emergencies. It
implies that the deployment of ITS technologies can reduce the undesirable impacts of
emergencies on traffic operations. However, the impact of counterflow and Route
Guidance should be further studied.
In addition, this study also predicts travel demand in 2015 and 2020. According
to Feasibility Research Report by Planning & Design Institute (2006), the model is
tested to evaluate the network performance and to capture the locations of traffic
congestion in the absence of an emergency in the future for planning applications. The
growth rate of demand is 183% and 235% in 2015 and 2020 compared to 2008’s
relatively. The simulation demonstrates that travel demand is a key factor to network
performance, in 2020 average travel speed reduces by 51.2% while average delay
increase significantly by 727%. The results could give some support for transportation
agencies.
 
CONCLUSION
In the study, simulation tests are conducted on the Around Hangzhou Bay Area
network to showcase the DTA capabilities to evaluate the impacts of various emergency
scenarios and to model multiple strategies involving relevant ITS technologies such as
Route Guidance System. The simulation results show DTA is particularly appropriate for
modeling emergency and evaluating network performance, and confirm that VISSIM is
a powerful tool for transportation agencies to improve their exiting emergency
management plans.
As expected, dynamic traffic assignment presents a significant improvement over
the static traffic assignment during emergency. Analysis shows that the network
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performance is sensitive to the emergency duration, which indicates that a timely

clearance of an emergency and quick response of operators not only benefit the
emergency site and surroundings, but also are beneficial to the whole network. Moreover,
travel time savings and traffic delay reduction can be realized as a result of Route
Guidance System, which implies that the deployment of ITS technologies can reduce the
undesirable impacts of emergencies on traffic operations.
The simulation-based DTA model is also utilized to study the impact of
emergency on certain OD pairs and specific links, and there are already some
achievements of the study, the detail will be described in another paper.
This paper uses a flat demand value as an input due to the data and time
limitation, however, DTA simulation model should be executed for a full 24-hour time
period to capture all time-varying travel demand. Besides, it is noted by Tang (2009) that
only a small fraction of travelers have good knowledge about the emergency and the
alternate routes, much more accurate evaluation is needed for the ITS development and
traffic operation.

REFERENCES
Abdelghany,K.F., Abdelghany,A.F., Mahmassani,H.S. and Abdelfatah,A.S. (2001).
“Evaluating bus preemption strategies at signalized intersection using a
multi-modal Dynamic Network Assignment-Simulation methodology.” 80th
Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 2001.
Ben-Akiva,M.E., Bierlaire,M., Bottom,J., Koutsopoulos,H.N. and Mishalani,R. (1997a).
“Development of a route guidance generation system for real-time application.”
Proceedings of the 8th International Federation of Automatic Control
Symposium on Transportation Systems, Chania, Greece, 433-438
Ben-Akiva,M.E., Koutsopoulos,H.N., Mishalani,R. and Yang,Q. (1997b). “Simulation
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CCCC Highway Consultants Co., Ltd. (2006). Feasibility Research on Hangzhou Bay
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Gao,L., Liu,M., Sun,Z., Mao,B. (2008). “Simulation on impact of information guidance
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Han,L.D., Yuan,F,. (2005). “Evacuation modeling and operations using Dynamic Traffic
Assignment and most desirable destination approaches.” 84th Annual Meeting
of the Transportation Research Board, Washington,D.C.
Liu,R. (2006). Research on Traffic Assignment based on Simulation [D]. Chang’an
University, 2006.
Mahmassani,H.S., Peeta,S., Hu,T.Y. and Ziliaskopoulos,A.K. (1993). “Dynamic traffic
assignment with multiple user classes for real-time ATIS/ATMS application.” In
Proceedings of the Advanced Traffic Management Conference, St. Petersburg,
Florida. Washington D.C.: Federal Highway Administration.
Mouskos, K.C., Izadmehr, B., Ziliaskopoulos,A.K. (2003). Implementation of the Visual
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Interactive System for Transportation Algorithms (VISTA) in the United States.

Application of Technology in Urban Development. Iran.
PTV. User Manual of VISSIM 5.10 [M]. 2008.
Qin,X. (2008). Research and implementation of simulation based Dynamic Traffic
Assignment Model [D]. Tsinghua University, 2008.
Rathi,V., Antoniou,C., Wen,Y., Ben-Akiva,M.E., Cusack,M. (2008). “Assessment of the
impact of dynamic prediction-based route guidance using a simulation-based,
closed-loop framework.” 87th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research
Board, Washington,D.C.
Shao,C., Zhang,K., Xu,J. (2003). “A distributed and parallel algorithm of Dynamic
Traffic Assignment based on computer simulation.” Journal of Transportation
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Shelton,J., Chiu,Y., Kuhn,B. (2008). “Evaluation of managed ramp strategies for
incident and congestion management.” 87th Annual Meeting of the
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Sisiopiku,V.P., Li,X., Mouskos,K.C., Kamga,C., Barrett,C., Abro,A.M. (2007).
“Dynamic traffic assignment modeling for incident management.” 86th Annual
Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington,D.C.
Tang,X., Chen,Y., Zhang,G. (2009). “Analysis of Dynamic Vehicle Navigation’s impact
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Tongji University. (2005). OD Survey Analysis in Zhejiang Province [R].
Van Aerde,M.,Yagar,S. (1988). “Dynamic integrated freeway/traffic signal networks:
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Yuan,F., Han,L.D. (2009). “Improving evacuation planning with sensible measure of
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Crash Injury Severity Analysis at Signalized Intersections: Modeling Techniques

and Significant Factors

Xuesong WANG1, Yu JIN1, Haihao SUN1

1
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China 201804; PH
(86) 21-69583946; FAX (86) 21-65982897; email: wangxs@tongji.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is to examine crash injury severity. Ordered probability
models with either logit or probit function is commonly applied in crash injury severity
analyses; however, its critical assumption that the slope coefficients do not vary over
different alternatives except the cut-off points is usually too restrictive. Partial
proportional odds models are generalizations of ordered probability models, for which
some of the beta coefficients can differ across alternatives. Left-turn crashes are the
most frequently occurring collisions and they are prone to be severe. They were
analyzed by partial proportional odds models. The results show that partial proportional
odds model performs better than ordered probability model. Many variables in driver
attributes, vehicular characteristics, roadway geometry design, environmental factors,
and crash characteristics were identified. Specifically, the use of the partial proportional
formulation allows a much better identification of the increasing effect of alcohol and/or
drug use on crash injury severity, which previously was masked using the conventional
ordered probability models.

INTRODUCTION
Intersections are among the most dangerous locations of a roadway network. The
traffic crashes at signalized intersections result in a huge cost to society in terms of death,
injury, lost productivity, and property damage. However, how the different factors affect
crash severity is still not clear. Left-turn crashes occur frequently and they account for a
high percentage of total crashes at signalized intersections. They are prone to be severe,
possibly due to the relatively high conflicting speeds of involved vehicles and the angle
of impact. In police reports, crash injury is categorized into five levels based on the most
serious injury to any person involved in a crash: no injury, possible injury, non-
incapacitating injury, incapacitating injury and fatal injury. The purpose of this study is
to investigate how traffic characteristics, driver attributes, vehicular characteristics,
roadway geometry features, environmental factors, and crash characteristics affect left-
turn crash injury severity.
Multinomial logit models were specified for multiple alternatives of severity.
Shankar and Mannering (1996) considered environmental, roadway, vehicular, and rider
characteristics in their multinomial logit analysis of motorcycle-rider severity on single-
vehicle motorcycle crashes. However, the logit model’s assumption of independent
errors for each alternative is inconsistent with the fact that the alternatives for crash
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injuries are ordered. With ordered alternatives, one alternative is similar to those close to
it and less similar to those further away (Train, 2003). Nested logit, mixed logit, or
probit models can be applied to account for the pattern of similarity and dissimilarity
among different injury levels. Abdel-Aty (2003) compared the multinomial logit, nested
logit, and ordered probit models for driver’s injury severity at toll plaza and found that
nested logit model produced the best fit. However, Train (2003) thinks such a
specification does not actually fit the structure of the ordinal data.
Considering that severe crashes are comparatively less frequent (especially fatal
crashes) and also for simplicity, some researchers collapsed the five level injury data
into fewer levels. The binary logit or probit model can be used when severity is
classified into two levels. Al-Ghamdi (2002) applied the binary logit model to examine
the effect of crash characteristics on fatal and non-fatal injury and found that crash
location and cause of crash were significant. Obeng (2007) applied the binary logit to
analyze crash injury of signalized intersections. But combining adjoining categories in
ordered categorical regression could lose efficiency in estimating regression parameters
(Train, 2003).
The main characteristic of crash injury data, from a modeling perspective, is that
the responses are inherently ordered multiple choice variables. Ordered logit and probit
models have been commonly applied to fit the ordinal data structure of injury severity.
Abdel-Aty (2003) applied the ordered probit model to predict crash severity on roadway
sections, signalized intersections and toll plazas by using the Florida crash database.
Ordered probability models are straightforward because they impose the restriction that
regression parameters (except cut-off points) are the same for different severity levels.
This is called parallel-lines assumption, or proportional odds assumption. However, for
injury severity, it is not clear whether distances between adjacent injury levels are equal.
It is too arbitrary to assume that coefficients of ordered probability models are the same
except for cut-off points. The parallel-lines constraint can be relaxed for all variables,
but estimating more parameters than necessary will also cause some variables to be
insignificant. Considering that the assumption may be violated only by one or a few of
the included variables, Peterson and Harrel (1990) proposed a partial proportional odds
model, where parallel-lines constraint is relaxed only for those variables when it is not
justified and allows non-proportional odds for a subset of the explanatory variables.
In summary, there have been numerous studies analyzing crash injury severity.
However, only limited studies examined crash injury severity at signalized intersections
(Abdel-Aty, 2003; Obeng, 2007), and in previous studies, crashes were not located to the
exact sites they occurred. Therefore, the previous approach is unable to associate crash
injury to features of related approaches. There is no study investigating injury severity
for left-turn crashes specifically. In addition, most severity analyses depended on crash
data in which most intersection attributes are not available (i.e., turning movements,
signal phase, left-turn offset, etc). However, these are the only viable factors traffic
engineers have some control over. In this study, left-turn crash injury severity is
investigated using partial proportional odds models. Left-turn crashes are located to the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 898
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

crash sites where they occurred, which enables researchers to specify the effect of
attributes of intersection geometric design features, traffic control and operational
features, and traffic characteristics on crash severity.

METHODOLOGY
Crash injury severity is categorized into five levels in increasing of severity and
coded as: 1 = no injury, 2 = possible injury, 3 = non-incapacitating injury, 4 =
incapacitating injury, and 5 = fatal injury. Note that level j = 1 is defined as the
minimum value of the variable, no injury. Let Yi denotes the recorded crash injury for
crash i . Ordered logit and probit models can be derived based on the level of an
unobserved variable (Train, 2003; Washington et al., 2003). A critical assumption of the
ordered probability models is that the slope coefficients do not vary over different
alternatives except the cut-off points. This parallel-lines assumption could be violated in
many cases. A generalized ordered logit model can be specified to relax parallel-lines
assumption for all variables and the probability of crash injury for a given crash can be
specified as
(
exp α j − X i′ β j )
( )
P(Yi > j ) = g X i′ β j =
(
1 + exp α j − X i′ β j ), j = 1, 2, 3, 4 (1)

where X i is a p × 1 vector containing the values of crash i on the full set of p

explanatory variables, β j is a p × 1 vector of regression coefficients, α j represents cut-
off point for the jth cumulative logit.
Considering that the parallel-lines assumption may be violated only by one or a
few variables, a partial proportional odds model can be specified, for which one or more
β s differ across equations and others can be the same for all equations. Peterson and
Harrell (1990) proposed a gamma parameterization of partial proportional odds model
with logit function as below
( )
P(Yi > j ) = g X i′ β j =
[ (
exp α j − X i′ β j + Ti′γ j )]
[ (
1 + exp α j − X i′ β j + Ti′γ j )] (2)

where Ti is a q × 1 vector, q ≤ p , containing the values of crash i on that subset

of the p explanatory variables for which the proportional odds assumption is not
assumed, and γ j is a q ×1 vector of regression coefficient associated only with the jth
cumulative logit. In the model, each explanatory variable has one β coefficient, k-2 γ
coefficients, where k is the number of alternatives (in this study, k = 5). There are k-1 α
coefficients reflecting cut-off points. The γ coefficients represent deviations from
proportionality. This gamma parameterization combines all the features of the traditional
ordered models while allowing for non-proportionality in some or all of the variables in
the model. If all the gammas are equal zero, it is actually a proportional odds model.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 899
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Ordered probability models and partial proportional odds models with different
functions (logit or probit) are not nested. Pseudo R2 measure R 2 = 1 − (ln L / ln L0 ) ) and
Akaike’s information criterion AIC = −2 ln L + 2 p are applied to evaluate models’
performance, where ln L and ln L0 are the log-likelihood in the fitted and intercept-only
models, and p is the number of parameters estimated. Pseudo R2 coincides with an
interpretation of linear model R squared (Cameron and Trivedi, 1998). Smaller AIC
indicates a better-fitting model (Stata, 2005).

DATA PREPARATION
Information on intersection geometry design features, traffic control and
operational features, traffic flows, and crashes from 2000 to 2005 were obtained for 197
four-legged signalized intersections from Orange and Hillsborough counties in the
Central Florida area. Of the 13,281 collisions at the selected intersections, 3098 were
left-turn collisions. This accounts for 23.4% of all police reported vehicle collisions at
the selected intersections. Based on vehicle movements (e.g., straight ahead, making
left-turn) and direction of travel of both involved vehicles, left-turn crashes were
assigned to the approach from which the left-turning vehicles turned. The approach level
intersection-related explanatory variables were arranged as entering, near-side crossing,
far-side crossing, and opposing approaches. All of the crash related data were assembled
with intersection related data.

ESTIMATION RESULTS
The total number of left-turn crashes was 3145 for the selected intersections over
the period of study. Partial proportional odds models with both logit and probit functions
were developed for total left-turn crash injury severity as shown in Table 1. Partial
proportional odds models were fitted by a user-written program gologit2 (Williams,
2006). For comparison, ordered logit and probit models were also fitted. Both Crash
Alcohol/Drug Involved and point of impact of another vehicle were identified to violate
parallel-lines assumption, with p-values 0.003 and 0.041 in the Wald test, respectively.
Partial proportional odds models with either logit or probit function were fitted with
these two factors differing across injury levels. The p-value of the Wald test for parallel-
lines assumption for the final model was 0.8120, which indicated that the final model
did not violate the parallel lines assumption. The partial proportional odds model with
probit function had better performance with the largest Pseudo R2 (0.0829) and the
smallest AIC (7977.75) as shown in Table 1.
Results showed that crashes occurred at night but with street light and safety
equipment in use will reduce crash injury level, Coef. = -0.1474 and -0.2656,
respectively. Crashes involved motorcycle, with drivers ejected from vehicle, and higher
speed ratio of involved vehicle tend to produce more severe left-turn crashes, Coef. =
0.5057, 0.3882, 0.1029, respectively. For both involved vehicles, the front is the most
dangerous impact point. Previous studies showed that young drivers were more likely
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 900
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involved in crashes, however, the negative coefficients -0.2446 and -0.1441 indicated
that they were less likely to be injured.

Table 1. Models for Total Left-turn Crashes.

Generalized
Ordered Logit
Ordered Probit
Variables Estimates
Estimates
Coef. z Coef. z
Beta
Conflicting Vehicle Types (base: other
combination)
Both Vehicles in Large Size -0.3482 -3.11 -0.1951 -2.98
Motorcycle Involved 0.8471 3.08 0.5057 3.09
Lighting Condition: Dark with Street
-0.2610 -3.45 -0.1474 -3.32
Light vs. Others
Maximum of Speed Ratios (estimated
speed/speed limit) of Two Involved 0.1729 2.00 0.1029 2.02
Vehicles
Driver Ejected (vs. no) 0.6871 2.41 0.3882 2.40
Safety Equipment in Use (vs. Not Used) -0.4669 -4.50 -0.2656 -4.33
Crash Alcohol/Drug Involved (vs. no) 0.6982 2.79 0.0618 0.36
Point of Impact of Entering Left-turning
Vehicle (base: front and front right)
Back Right -0.6947 -6.85 -0.4053 -6.73
Back -1.3157 -5.81 -0.7727 -5.99
Back Left -0.9233 -4.71 -0.5543 -4.74
Front Left -0.2208 -2.14 -0.1371 -2.26
Other -0.7372 -3.76 -0.4989 -4.15
Point of Impact of Another Vehicle
(base: front and front left)
Front Right -1.0130 -10.34 -0.6053 -10.50
Back Right -0.5116 -5.78 -0.2907 -5.57
Back and Back Left -1.8358 -8.93 -1.0473 -8.87
Other -1.0140 -7.51 -0.5900 -7.39
Driver age of Left-turning Vehicle
(base: age ≥ 25)
Very Young ( ≤ 19) -0.4238 -4.40 -0.2446 -4.32
Young (20 ≤ age ≤ 24) -0.2225 -2.33 -0.1503 -2.66
Driver Age of Another Vehicle (base: 20
≤ age ≤ 64)
Very Young ( ≤ 19) -0.2271 -2.21 -0.1441 -2.36
Old ( ≥ 65) 0.2473 1.74 0.1500 1.78
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 901
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Gamma_2
Crash Alcohol/Drug Involved vs. No - - 0.3359 2.86
Point of Impact of Another Vehicle:
- - 0.1607 1.65
other vs. base case
Gamma_3
Crash Alcohol/Drug Involved vs. No - - 0.4597 2.46
Point of Impact of Another Vehicle:
- - 0.4342 2.66
other vs. base case
Gamma_4
Crash Alcohol/Drug Involved vs. No - - 0.8914 3.27
Point of Impact of Another Vehicle:
- - 0.4342 2.66
other vs. base case
Alpha
Constant 1 -0.4553 - -0.3155 -1.52
Constant 2 0.6766 - 0.3766 1.81
Constant 3 2.2959 - 1.3606 6.54
Constant 4 5.1588 - 2.7590 12.54
Summary Statistics
AIC 7978.38 7977.75
2
Pseudo R 0.0816 0.0829
Note: dash (-) indicates data not applicable or unavailable.

SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION

In U.S., crash injury severity is categorized into five levels in increasing of
severity. The parallel-lines assumption (or proportional odds assumption) of commonly
applied ordered probability models is usually too restricting. This assumption may be
violated only by one or a few of the included variables. A partial proportional odds
model where the parallel-lines constraint is relaxed only for those variables when it is
not justified is applied in this study for left-turn crashes. Left-turn crashes were located
to the crash sites where they occurred, which enables the researchers to specify the effect
of attributes of intersection approach features on crash severity. The partial proportional
odds model performs better for left-turn crashes. By using partial proportional odds
models, the interpretation of the parameters yields greater insight concerning
contributing factors, i.e., it revealed the increasing crash injury severity due to alcohol
and/or drugs.

REFERENCES
Abdel-Aty, M., (2003). “Analysis of Driver Injury Severity Levels at Multiple Locations
Using Ordered Probit Models.” Journal of Safety Research, Vol. 34, pp. 597-
603.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 902
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Al-Ghamdi, S., (2002). “Using Logistic Regression to Estimate the Influence of

Accident Factors on Accident Severity.” Accident Analysis and Prevention,
Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 447-456.
Cameron, A. and Trivedi, P., (1998). Regression Analysis of Count Data. Cambridge,
England: Cambridge University Press.
Obeng, K., (2007). “Some Determinants of Possible Injuries in Crashes at Signalized
Intersections.” Journal of Safety Research, Vol. 38, Issue 1, pp. 103-112.
Peterson, B., Harrell, F. E., (1990). “Partial Proportional Odds Models for Ordinal
Response Variables.” Applied Statistics, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 205-217.
Shankar, V., Mannering, F., (1996). “An Exploratory Multinomial Logit Analysis of
Single Vehicle Motorcycle Accident Severity.” Journal of Safety Research,
Vol 27, No 3, pp. 183-194.
Stata. (2005). Stata Statistical Software: Release 9. College Station, TX: StataCorp LP.
Train, K., (2003). Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge University
Press.
Washington, S., Karlaftis, M., and Mannering, F., (2003). Statistical and Econometric
Methods for Transportation Data Analysis. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca
Raton, FL.
Williams, R., (2006). “Generalized Ordered Logit/Partial Proportional Odds Models for
Ordinal Dependent Variables.” The Stata Journal, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 58-82.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 903
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Analysis of the Safety Influence Area for 4-Legged Signalized Intersections

Xuesong WANG1, Xiaohong CHEN1, Haihao SUN1

1
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China 201804; PH
(86) 21-69583946; FAX (86) 21-65982897; email: wangxs@tongji.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
It is common in crash data recording and safety studies to designate crashes
occurring within a default radius from intersections as occurred at or influenced by
intersections. The purpose of this study is to investigative how intersection attributes
affect this safety influence area. Data for a sample of 177 four-legged signalized
intersections was collected from the state of Florida. Based on the crash data and the
approach features, the intersection inside area (from the center to the stop bar, used to
designate “at intersection” crashes) and the safety influence area (measured upstream
from the stop bar, used to designate “intersection-related” crashes) were explored using
the classification trees method. Results show that the inside area is mainly influenced by
the intersecting roadway; however, the approach upstream safety influence area is
mainly affected by the attributes of that approach. The study also examined when the
safety influence area extends beyond the physical functional area. Finally, test statistics
show that intersection-related crashes defined by a 250 feet boundary versus varying
boundaries are significantly different. The research concluded that it is better to define
“at-intersection” and “intersection-related” safety influence areas for each approach
separately and then based on approach features to determine their size.

INTRODUCTION
Signalized intersections are the most complex locations due to many conflicting
movements and changing traffic signals; and they are vital to the safety and efficiency of
a roadway network. Traffic collisions may occur anywhere at an intersection. They may
occur within the limits of the intersection, e.g., right angle and left-turn crashes; they
may occur on an approach to or exit from the intersection resulting from an activity,
behavior or control related to the movement of traffic units through the intersection
(National Safety Council, 1997), e.g., rear-end and sideswipe crashes. In some states,
crash reports allow police officers in the field to code these crashes as “at intersection”
or “intersection-related” for crash site location. The distance to which the safety
influence area extends from the intersection depends on the intersection geometry design,
traffic control and operating features (North Carolina Crash Report Instruction Manual,
1999).
This concept of safety influence area is important for intersection crash data
recording, maintenance and safety analysis. For the purpose of systematic analysis,
many states apply a distance from the center of an intersection to determine if a crash is
influenced by that intersection. For example, in the state of Florida, the 50-ft and 250- ft
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 904
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figures are default values for “at intersection” and “influenced by intersection” crashes,
respectively. When the state of Indiana reports its 5% most hazardous intersections, the
250-ft criterion is used (Indiana 2006 Five Percent Report, 2007). Some other states
identify the safety influence area mainly considering the effect of left-turn lanes. For
channelized intersections, in the state of Arizona, the junction area is defined as within
20 feet beyond the gore of islands, or the point at which the turn lane attains full width
(Arizona Traffic Accident Report Instruction Manual and Glossary, 2000). Box (1968a)
summarized commonly used default values used for assigning intersection crashes
which include 100 ft, 150 ft, and quarter-mile, and he explained how different rules
affect safety evaluation (Box, 1968b).
Analysis of large amounts of data requires effective methods to properly select
the intersection-related crashes. Most of the previous studies selected a certain distance
or radius to retrieve intersection-related crashes. However, the lack of uniformity is an
important issue when analyzing data from more than one state. Many crashes may be left
out due to a smaller scale length of influence area for large intersections; and the safety
problem could be overestimated if a larger safety influence area is applied to smaller
intersections. Inconsistency in collecting intersection related crash data could falsely
indicate that intersections in certain states are safer than others, or that larger
intersections experience high or low percentage of specific crash types than smaller ones.
An improved methodology is needed to better determine an intersection safety influence
area for each intersection category that may be encountered in an intersection safety
study.

BACKGROUND
Many previous studies applied a fixed influence distance for identifying
intersection- related crashes. Lyon et al. (2005) developed the safety performance
functions for 1,950 urban signalized intersections in Toronto, Canada. Collisions that
fell within the 20-meter (65.62-ft) radius from the center of the intersection were
designated as intersection-related. In a safety evaluation of Red-Light Cameras, Persaud
et al. (2005) analyzed crashes of 132 signalized intersections in several states. All the
rear-end crashes reported within a 150-ft radius were considered intersection-related.
Harwood et al. (2003) and Mitra et al. (2007) included all intersection-related crashes
within 250 ft of each intersection to evaluate their safety.
Stover (1996) recommended the intersection upstream functional areas mainly
considering the approach speed. Cottrell and Mu (2005) examined intersection safety
along the state roads in Utah and ranked them by crash frequency, severity score and
crash rate. An intersection safety influence area based on the stopping sight distance for
an average approach speed of 40 mph (around 500 ft) was chosen in order to capture
most of the intersection-related crashes. They investigated the influence area of 35
hazardous intersections, and found that a 100-ft radius was applicable to about 25
intersections and only 2 of the intersections appeared to have a 500-ft radius of influence
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 905
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area. The authors pointed out that the use of large radius tended to overestimate the
crash risk.
In a study of examining the relationship between crash count and traffic volume,
Joksch and Kostyniuk (1998) collected intersections from three states (Michigan,
California, and Minnesota). For the selected intersections, the maximum length of the
influence zone chosen was 350 ft and the minimum was 7 ft. They recognized that these
values of the influence zones were defined by convention or judgment and not based on
a specific function of other intersection characteristics. In developing crash models for
rural intersections in different states, Vogt (1999) found that the lack of uniformity is an
important issue when analyzing data from more than one state. In summary, few studies
of intersection-related safety analyses devote specific attention to the method of
determining intersection safety influence area, and therefore consistently identifying the
crashes associated with each intersection.
Identification of the intersection inside area is straightforward, and the crashes
occurring at the downstream are unlikely to be related to the intersection. The major
problem is to decide the safety influence area of the upstream approach. In addition,
different approaches of an intersection may have different influence areas. The major
objective of this study is to investigate how the size of the intersection, left-turn lane
length, through and left-turning traffic volumes, skewness, and other intersection-related
features affect the approach upstream safety influence area. Instead of providing a single
default value for all intersections as is usually the case, the varied influence areas were
determined for different intersection approach groups. Approach level crash frequency
models were also fitted for intersection-related crashes with the fixed and the varied
boundaries to test if there are differences in the significant factors and the model
performance.

STATE OF PRACTICE
A nationwide survey was conducted to review how police officers, crash records
technicians, and state safety engineers currently identify intersection crashes. The
questionnaire was sent by email to crash records contacts and traffic safety engineers in
45 states and territories. The participants were asked to ascertain if a fixed distance from
the intersection is used to define intersection-related crashes in their jurisdictions, and
whether this distance is from the center, the physical edge, or from the stop bar. All
participants were also asked to introduce the major factors in their crash database, if any,
used to determine intersection-related crashes. Twenty-six states and two territories
responded to the survey.
In general, different criteria are used to define intersection-related crashes as
summarized in Figure 1. Out of 28 respondents, 15 use the distance as a criterion to
identify intersection-related crashes. Among them, eight jurisdictions use a default
distance as the absolute criterion, and others adjust their influence zones based on traffic
condition, size of the intersection, left-turn lane length, stopping sight distance (or speed
limit). There is a large variance of the distances reported to define intersection influence
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 906
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area; for example, it is 75 feet in Iowa for its rural intersections, but it is 528 feet in
Delaware. The response from Colorado explained why the 0.05-mile (264-foot) distance
was chosen. It represents ½ of a typical urban block, which might explain why 250 feet
is commonly used. For those jurisdictions without a default distance, a crash is
designated as intersection-related if any vehicle involved in a crash was in the process of
stopping, turning, slowing down, or making any other type of maneuver that was a result
of the presence of an intersection.

600
Default Safety Influence Distance (Feet)

528
500
500

400
300*
250 264* 250 250 275*
300
200
150* 158*
200
132
100
50* 75*
100

Virgin Islands
Delaware

Iowa
Colorado

Florida

Maryland
Alaska

California

Connecticut

Vermont
Kansas
Hawaii

Missouri
Mississippi

Utah
States

Figure 1. Intersection safety influence in 15 states that use distance as a criterion.

For the major factors, there is a prevalent use of site location to designate crashes
that occurred at intersection or influenced by intersection for intersection crashes;
however, many jurisdictions do not have an “intersection-related” code that might serve
as a screening tool. They use a combination of first harmful event, collision type, vehicle
maneuver, and the intersection related code. Seven respondents indicated that their crash
records offices examine every crash report and infer from the officer’s narrative and
crash diagram whether it is an intersection-related crash (i.e., Arkansas, Hawaii,
Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Puerto Rico and Texas).

INTERSECTION AND CRASH DATA

A sample of 177 regular four-legged signalized intersections were selected from
Orange and Hillsborough counties in Florida. Intersection geometry design features,
traffic control and operational features, traffic flows, and crashes over the study period
(2000-2005) were obtained for each intersection approach (i.e., 708 approaches).
Geometry design features for the intersection approaches include the number of
through lanes, the number of left-turn lanes and whether they were exclusive, the
presence of median, whether it had exclusive right-turn lanes, the types of left-turn lane
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 907
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offset (negative, zero, or positive offset), the direction of each intersection roadway, and
the angle of the intersecting roadways. Additional geometric data on intersection inside
size (from the center to the stop bar), right- and left-turn lane length for each approach
were measured using satellite imagery from Google™ Earth (2007). Left-turn lane
length includes storage length, deceleration length, and approach end taper.
Traffic control and operational features were retrieved by inspecting signal plans
provided by the county traffic engineering departments. The speed limit, the types of
left-turn control (permissive, compound or protected), and the key factors for signal
phases, i.e., yellow time, and all-red time for through and left-turn (if protected)
movements were retrieved for each approach. The approach daily turning movements
were derived from the approach AADT and the proportion of peak hour approach
turning movements.
Crash data were obtained from the Florida Department of Transportation database for
the selected intersections. There were a total of 13,218 crashes linked to the selected
intersections over the six year period. The crash mile point, location distance to the
middle of the intersection, site location (e.g., at intersection), the first harmful event (e.g.,
rear-end), the vehicle movement (e.g., straight ahead, making left-turn), the direction of
travel (e.g., west), and the contributing cause (e.g., failed to yield right-of-way,
disregarded traffic signal) for both involved vehicles/drivers are stored in the crash
database.
In the state of Florida, crashes within 50 feet of an intersection are classified as
“at intersection”; when crashes are within 250 feet of an intersection and if they are
attributed to the presence of intersections, the site locations are recorded as “influenced
by intersection.” However, in practice, when police officers determine the distance for a
crash they are frequently measuring it from the stop bar rather than the center. For the
selected intersections, there were 2426 rear-end crashes that occurred right after the stop
bar with a zero location distance and coded as “at intersection” for their site location. To
be consistent, the location distances of these crashes should add the front vehicle length
and the inside intersection length, and the site location should be corrected as
“influenced by intersection”.
Among the total 13,218 crashes for the selected intersections, there were 2276
crashes coded as “not at intersection” in the site location. The vehicle movements were
checked for those crashes that occurred within the physical areas (1626 crashes), and the
crashes whose front vehicles were “slowing or stopped” right before the crashes due to
traffic or red light were re-classified as intersection-related crashes. For those crashes
that occurred beyond the physical areas (650 crashes), the crash narrative and diagram in
their crash reports were reviewed. If the narrative for a crash contained any information
such as “first vehicle slowed down and attempted to stop due to the change of traffic
light (or already stopped), the driver of the following vehicle did not notice and struck
the rear-end of the front vehicle”, “driver did not notice the front traffic backed up due to
traffic signal and hit the rear of the front car”, it was re-classified as intersection-related
crash. In summary, a total of 1940 crashes were changed to “influenced by intersection”
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 908
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for their site locations, and the total number of intersection-related crashes increased to
9082 for the selected intersections over the study period. They were assigned to their
corresponding approaches based on the moving direction of each vehicle.

INTERSECTION-RELATED SAFETY INFLUENCE AREA AND

DETERMINING FACTORS
This study investigated the safety influence area at the approach level.
Intersection safety influence area can be divided into intersection inside area and
intersection-related area. The decision tree method was applied to examine the size of
the safety influence area and its determining factors. Then this study investigated the
farthest collision distance for each approach (considered as the real safety influence
area), and explored what are the factors among all approach features affecting this
distance. Finally, the study examined what are the factors which caused the crashes that
occurred farther than the limit of left-turn lanes.
Police officers usually measure the crash distance from the stop bar, which is
mentioned in the survey and confirmed by reviewing the crash reports. This error was
corrected by adding intersection approach inside distance and the length of the front
vehicle. Among all 9082 intersection-related crashes, 7758 (or 85.42%) occurred within
250 feet from the center, and 1325 (or 14.58%) had location distance larger than 250 feet.
By checking the crash narrative and diagram, the location distance of the farthest
collision for each approach can be considered as the real safety influence area. This
distance was obtained for each of the selected approaches with intersection-related
crashes over the study period. Among 623 approaches of the selected intersections with
intersection-related crashes, in 53.45% of them, the farthest crash occurred within 250
feet from the center, while 46.55% had the farthest crash beyond 250 feet. This suggests
that the intersection influence areas for these approaches should be larger than 250 feet.
Using the 250ft criterion used in Florida and many states would underestimate the
number of crashes associated with those intersections. The distribution of intersection-
related safety influence area and determining factors were analyzed using the decision
tree method and results are reported in a tabulated format as shown in Table 1. In the
decision tree analysis, the location distance was measured from the stop bar. Only the
features of the targeted approach were identified as significant. The relative
significances for the variables were: approach through volume (1.0000), speed limit
(0.5595), county (0.2517), number of right-turn lanes (0.1989), approach left-turn
protection (0.0554). The approach through movements was the most significant factor
affecting intersection safety influence area.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 909
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Table 1. Decision tree analysis of the farthest collision distance.

First rule: Approach safety
Approach through Second rule Third rule influence area
volume (ADT) (feet)
Approach speed
- 36
limit ≤ 40 mph
40 mph <
< 5269 Approach speed - 117.3
limit ≤ 50 mph
Approach speed
- 469.9
limit > 50 mph
5269 ≤ Approach
through volume < 226.1
Approach right-
25800
turn lanes = 0
Approach through
405.3
volume ≥ 25800
≥ 5269
County =
Hillsborough 345.6
Approach right-
County
turn lanes = 1, 2
County = Orange
276.2
County

CONTRASTING THE FARTHEST COLLISION DISTANCE WITH THE

PHYSICAL BOUNDARY
Some states determine safety influence area mainly considering the length of the
left-turn lane (e.g., Arizona); however, possibly due to congested traffic, the safety
influence area of an intersection could extend beyond the boundaries of the physical area
(right- and left-turn lanes) of an intersection. Among the selected intersections, 214
approaches had intersection-related crashes located outside of the physical boundary. A
binary logit model (1 if farthest collision located outside of the physical boundary, 0
otherwise) was fitted to explore how intersection attributes contribute to the farthest
collision as shown in
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 910
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Table 2. Only entering approach features were found to be significant. The model
performed very well with a Percent Concordant value of 82.6 percent.

Table 2. Binary Logit Model for Comparison of Farthest Collision Distance with
Physical Boundary.
Standard
Variables Estimate p-value
Error
Intercept -2.3811 1.2421 0.0552
3
Approach through movements (10
0.0318 0.0151 0.035
vehicles)
Number of left-turn lanes ( ≥ 1 vs. 0) -2.2054 0.3267 <0.0001
Number of right-turn lanes ( ≥ 1 vs. 0) 0.2903 0.1077 0.007
Left-turn lane length (feet) -0.00629 0.000983 <0.0001
Speed limit (mph) 0.05 0.0171 0.0034
Left-turn protection (protected vs.
0.3778 0.1551 0.0148
none)
Approach through movements yellow
time 0.5076 0.2787 0.0686
(sec.)
Major roadway (yes vs. no) 0.6946 0.3086 0.0244
Summary Statistics
Number of approaches 708
Response profile: 1/0 214/494
P-value of the likelihood ratio test <0.0001
-2 Log L 639.780
Percent Concordant 82.6%

The approach through movements were identified as significant to increase the

chance of having crashes outside of the physical boundary (Coef. = 0.0318; p-value =
0.035), which is reasonable since more through movements are related to a longer queue.
More left-turn lanes and a longer left-turn lane reduced the chance of having a crash
beyond the left-turn lane (Coef. = -2.2054 and Coef. = -0.00629, respectively). The
exclusive left-turn lanes minimize collisions between vehicles turning left and the
following vehicles; however, left-turn lanes may increase rear-end crashes due to the
possible sudden stops of the leading turning vehicles when the left-turn lane is short,
while more left-turn lanes will reduce the storage length of left-turning vehicles. In
Florida, where dual turning lanes are used, the storage length is reduced to
approximately half of that required for single-lane operation (Florida Intersection Design
Guide, 2007). The higher speed limit is associated with higher chances of having crashes
occurring outside of the physical boundary (Coef. = 0.05; p-value = 0.0034), which is
consistent with the conclusion reached in a previous study that increasing speed limit
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will increase stopping sight distance, thus increasing the safety influence area (Stover ,
1996).

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

The concept of safety influence area is important for signalized intersection crash
data recording and safety analysis. The nationwide survey shows that many states apply
a default distance as radius to classify crashes occurred within this area as intersection-
related crashes. It is common that the previous intersection safety studies applied this
criterion to select intersection-related crashes. However, the values of the influence
zones were mostly defined by convention or judgment and not based on a specific
function of other intersection characteristics (Joksch and Kostyniuk, 1998). Few studies
devote specific attention to the method of determining intersection safety influence area,
and no study investigated safety influence area at the approach level. This study
investigated the safety influence area thoroughly and examined the factors affecting its
distribution for intersection approaches.
Massive data collection effort has been done, which include collecting
intersection approach geometric design features, traffic control and operational features,
traffic volume (including turning movements), crash data for 177 regular four-legged
signalized intersections. Right- and left-turn lanes are the major components of
intersections and their lengths were measured. Crash data are inconsistent due to
differences in crash reporting practices. For example, the mile-point for the intersection
is supposed to be the center of the intersection, while police officers frequently measure
crash location distance from the stop bar rather than the center. A crash should be
designated as intersection-related if any vehicle involved in a crash was in the process of
stopping, turning, slowing down, or making any other type of maneuver that was a result
of the presence of an intersection; however, many of these crashes were coded as “not at
intersection” in the crash data. The police reports were reviewed to correct this
inconsistency in crash location distance and site location.
Based on the crash data and the approach features, the intersection inside safety
influence area was explored using the classification tree method following the following
procedure: 1) collect a sample of intersections in the study area; 2) collect intersection
features for the selected intersections; 3) retrieve the crashes for the selected
intersections and identify the farthest crashes for each intersection approach; 4) follow
the procedure outlined above in this paper. Specifically use the decision tree method to
identify the significant factors of the intersection safety influence area. Results show that
the approach’s upstream safety influence area is mainly affected by the attributes of that
approach: approach through volume, speed limit, jurisdictions, number of right-turn
lanes and approach left-turn protection. The research concluded that it is better to define
“intersection-related” safety influence areas for each approach and then to determine the
size of the safety influence areas based on the identified significant variables. Finally,
the estimated safety influence areas based on the sample can be used for all other
intersections in the study area. This approach would lead to a precise crash count for the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 912
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intersections, and therefore a reliable evaluation of the magnitude and type of problem(s)
at each intersection.
Moreover, the study examined how the varied safety influence areas affect the
results of intersection safety analysis. The test statistics shows that intersection-related
crashes decided by a 250-ft boundary and by the varied boundaries are significantly
different for the selected intersections. In related work by the authors (Wang et al., 2008),
the approach level intersection-related crashes were fitted using the Generalized
Estimating Equations with negative binomial. The significant factors identified were
different for the fixed and the varied boundaries, and the model with varied influence
areas had a better performance, which confirmed that varied influence areas should be
applied when analyzing heterogeneous groups of intersections.
At this time we are not aware of any state that has used varied safety influence
area considering detailed intersection features for their crash data management and
intersection safety analysis. For example, the Crash Analysis Reporting (CAR) system
maintained by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) Safety Office is built
so that the actual safety influence area used by the reporting and analysis programs for
“at” and “influenced” by intersections may vary per roadway category (category is a
combination of highway type, number of lanes, divided/undivided, urban boundaries and
drainage type) per county and per district, at the discretion of the safety engineer for
each district. However, this functionality is not applied and the default values set in the
system are used due to the lack of research addressing this issue. This study illustrates an
approach which may be applied by state traffic agencies to examine the current default
value and provide varied safety influence areas for different groups of intersections
whenever necessary. This would achieve better consistency among jurisdictions and
states.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study is supported by the Shanghai Pujiang Program (09PJ1409900).

REFERENCES
Box, P. C. (1968) “Accident at Signalized Intersections.” Public Safety Systems,
Nov/Dec 1968.
Box, P. C. (1968) “Accident Record Tabulations: For Traffic Engineering Use.” Public
Safety Systems, Sep/Oct 1968.
Arizona Traffic Accident Report Instruction Manual and Glossary, 7th Edition. Arizona
Department of Transportation, Traffic Records Section, 2000.
Cottrell, W. D., and S. Mu. (2005) Utah Intersection Safety: Recurrent Crash Sites:
Identification, Issues and Factors. 2005, University of Utah, Mountain-Plains
Consortium.
Florida Intersection Design Guide. Florida Department of Transportation. Accessed June
17, 2007, from http://www.dot.state.fl.us/rddesign/FIDG-Manual/FIDG.htm.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 913
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Google Inc. Google Earth [Computer Software]. Retrieved June 17, 2007, from
http://earth.google.com/.
Harwood, D., K. Bauer, I. Potts, D. Torbic, K. Richard, E. K. Rabbani, E. Hauer, L.
Elefteriadou, and M. Griffith. (2003) “Safety Effectiveness of Intersection
Left- and Right-Turn Lanes.” In Transportation Research Record: Journal of
the Transportation Research Board, No. 1840, TRB, National Research
Council, Washington, D.C., 2003, pp. 131-139.
Indiana 2006 Five Percent Report. http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/fivepercent/06in.htm.
Accessed June 25, 2007.
Joksch, H.C., and L.P Kostyniuk. (1998) Modeling Intersection Crash Counts and
Traffic Volume. Publication FHWA-RD-98-096. FHWA, U.S. Department of
Transportation, 1998.
Lyon C., A. Haq, B. Persaud, and S. T. Kodama. (2005) “Safety Performance Functions
for Signalized Intersections in Large Urban Areas: Development and
Application to Evaluation of Left-Turn Priority Treatment.” In Transportation
Research Record No. 1908, 2005, pp. 165–171.
Mitra, S., S. Washington, and I. Van Schalkwyk. (2007) “Important Omitted Spatial
Variables in Safety Models: Understanding Contributing Crash Causes at
Intersections.” In TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers. CD-
ROM. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies,
Washington, D.C., 2007.
National Safety Council. (1997) American National Standard – ANSI D16.1-1996
Manual on Classification of Motor Vehicle Traffic Accidents, Sixth Edition,
1997
North Carolina Crash Report Instruction Manual. North Carolina Department of
Transportation, Division of Motor Vehicles, Raleigh, 1999.
Persaud, B., F. Council, C. Lyon, K. Eccles, and M. Griffith. (2005) “Multi-
jurisdictional Safety Evaluation of Red Light Cameras.” In Transportation
Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1922,
TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2005, pp. 29-37.
Stover, V.G. (1996) Discussion Paper No. 7: Functional Intersection Area. 1996.
Transportation Research Institute, Oregon State University, Oregon.
Vogt, A. (1999) Crash Models for Rural Intersections: Four-Lane by Two-Lane Stop-
Controlled and Two-Lave by Two-Lane Signalized. Publication FHWA-RD-
99-128. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1999.
Wang, X., Abdel-Aty, M., Nevarez, A., and Santos, J. (2008) “Investigation of Safety
Influence Area for Four-Leg Signalized Intersections: Nationwide Survey and
Empirical Inquiry.” Presented at the 87th Annual Meeting of the
Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C. January 2008.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 914
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The Simulative Value Analysis of the Effect of Vehicle Collision

Speed on the Safety

Guirong ZHANG1 Houyu LI1 Suyuan LIU1

1
Shandong Jiaotong University， Jinan， Shandong，250023，China；email:
zgr6933@163.com

ABSTRACT

According to the finite element principle, an analysis is made of the pitch point
displacement, which the automobile collision distorts. The frontage collision
distortion process is also analyzed with the distortion rigidity method. Through the
analysis of the automobile speed, ranging from 48km/h to 56km/h and the rigid wall
frontage collision of the simulative automobile body distortion result, it can be
concluded that as the collision speed increases, the automobile’s front body distortion
enlarges, and the cab mean acceleration also increases along with the collision speed
enhancement. When collision speed increases the self-protecting sector rigidity of the
automobile body should be strengthened so that the crew member's safe can be
guaranteed.
1 INTRODUCTION
Traffic accidents of vehicle collisions are frequently increasing. How does the
vehicle speed affect the crew’s security when the collision happens? How should
the automobile collision deformation be analyzed by using the finite element
principle? This article mainly deals with the simulative analysis of the deformation
result and accelerating speed changes at diversified vehicle speeds.
2 FINITE ELEMENT METHOD OF THE AUTOMOBILE COLLISION
DISTORTION
The finite element discretization is the imagined division of the elastic
non-individual body into limited units, and thinking the adjacent unit to be only
connected in the node, which is generally in unit boundary. The node displacement is
the basic unknown quantity of the structure. The limited element aggregate that such
is composed of introduces the equivalent node force and the node constraint
condition. Since the node number is limited, the limited element aggregate becomes
limited utensil liberty degree finite element method calculation model, which has
replaced the continuous body having much boundless liberty degree originally. How
to use the limited unit to form the sheet and the shell rigidity model is basically the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 915
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question of how to determine the unknown displacement caused by a group of node

loads (or generalized coordinates). Figure 1 is a finite element model of line
elasticity two-dimensional plate withstanding the load on plane and discretized by
the three node triangle unit.

Figure 1. Two-dimensional plate finite element model.

Using the standard, the matrix symbol expressing the nodal displacement {u} and
load {F } in the global coordinates (X, Y) is as follows:
⎧ u1 ⎫ ⎧ F1 ⎫
⎪u ⎪ ⎪F ⎪
{u}= ⎪⎨ 2 ⎪⎬ ,
{F }= ⎪⎨ 2 ⎪⎬ (1)
⎪#⎪ ⎪#⎪
⎪⎩u n ⎪⎭ ⎪⎩ Fn ⎪⎭
In the formula, n is two times of the node sum. Order {u} represents six node k

displacements within some appropriate part coordinate mansion k element on the flat.
In this case, corresponding element strain expression is:
⎧ε 11 ⎫
{ε }k = ⎪⎨ε 22 ⎪⎬ = [B]k {u}k (2)
⎪ε ⎪
⎩ 12 ⎭
[B]k is
to reflect the interpolation function matrix between the inner strain and the
node displacement in the formula. With the expression (2) in an appropriate dyadic
substitution in the stress-strain relational expression, the expression of element strain
would be:
{σ }k = ⎧⎪σ11 ⎫ = [D ]
⎪ k {ε }k
= [D]k [B ]k {u}k (3)
⎨σ 22 ⎬
⎪σ ⎪
⎩ 12 ⎭

[D ]k is a mansion k element elasticity constant matrix.

3 USE DEFORMATION STIFFNESS TO ANALYZE THE COLLISION
DEFORMATION PROCESS OF THE FACADE
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3.1 The Stiffness Coefficient of the Vehicle Collision Deformation

The approximate linear relationship of the collapse plastic deformation from the
vehicle collision, the depth of the collapse distortion x, and the impact force F is as
follows:
F=fB=CxB (4)
In the formula, f is the impact force which the unit width distortion withstands;
C is the collision stiffness coefficient; B is the width of the collided part. The
collision stiffness coefficient is as shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Vehicle collision stiffness coefficient.
Style Level Wheelbase/cm Collision stiffness coefficient /C/N•cm-2
Car Head Tail
1 205.5～240.8 32.4 26.2
2 240.8～258.1 29.6 28.3
3 258.1～280.4 38.6 30.3
4 280.4～298.5 23.4 33.1
5 298.5～312.9 25.5 48.3
6 312.9～381.0 25.5 48.3
Van 7 276.6～330.2 86.9 37.9
LGV 8 Refers to level of 1~6 34.5 17.2
Light off-road vehicles 9 Refers to level of 1~6 26.2 —
Front-wheel drive car

3.2 Deformation Process of The Facade Knocked Between the Vehicle and the
Stiffness Wall
When the automobile and the rigid wall frontage collide, take the collision
instantaneous center of mass position as the coordinate x zero point; in the
deformation process, the center mass speed v and the acceleration a respectively are:
dx (5)
v= = x (t )
dt
dv
a= = v = x(t ) (6)
dt
According to Newton’s law
ma = F (7)
Substitution type (6) and type (4)
x + (CB / m) x = x + ω 2 x = 0 (8)

In the formula, the angular frequency Omega ω is ω = CB / m , the ordinary

solution of (8) is
x = A sin(ωt + α ) (9)
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In the formula, constant A and α are determined by the initial condition. When
the collision starts t=0, original displacement x=0, the initial velocity is v=0,
substitution type (9) A= v0/ω, α=0, and finally in the collision process immediate

displacement x , the instantaneous velocity x and the transient acceleration x

respectively are:
x = (v0 / ω ) sin ωt

x = v0 cos ωt

x = −v0ω sin ωt

At the end of the instant collision deformation stage, the speed x = 0 , the biggest

displacement x and the maximum acceleration x respectively are:

x = ( v0 / ω )
x = −v0ω

4 COLLISION ANALOG COMPUTATION RESULT OF AUTOMOBILE

BODY AT SPEED OF 48.3KM/H AND THE RIGID WALL FRONTAGE
Figure 2 is the automobile body deformation chart of complete vehicle and the
rigid wall colliding directly 0ms~60ms under the analog computation. In the pictures,
it is obvious that buckling deformation happened in the fore-end, but the cabin and
the back of the body do not become deformed. The cause of this phenomenon is that
when the frontage collision occurs, the front part of the body receives the fierce hit.
The impacting energy is very big. In a short time, the change in momentum is rapid
and the extremely high impulse of the instantaneous value is formed. The front part
of the automobile body will have the big plastic deformation when this impact action
of force from the collision produces the stress far beyond the material yield stress,
simultaneously absorbs the most impacting energy, and causes the automobile kinetic
energy to be reduced. The passing of the impulse from the front part to the back part
has a time detention in the collision process, with a remarkable weakening in the
value. The stress the automobile cabin and the back withstand is reduced, without
causing obvious deformation.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 918
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Figure 2. Entire vehicles and rigid wall frontage collisions analog computation result.

5 COMPARE THE COLLISION ANALOG COMPUTATION RESULTS

OF THE AUTOMOBILE BODY WITH THE SPEEDS OF 56.3KM/H AND
48.3KM/H AND THE RIGID WALL FRONTAGE
5.1 Comparative Analysis of Displacement Change Result
In order to make a comparative analysis of the simulated collision of the
automobile body, at speeds of 56.3km/h and 48.3km/h, and the rigid wall frontage
analog computation result and whether or not the deformation result caused by the
body colliding with rigid wall directly by 48km/h tallies with the experimental result
as well as the auto safety laws and regulations, five points were taken as the analysis
objects: the Bumper---the junction between the front bumper and the left carline,
Mid---a point in the middle of front bumper, the Panel---the display board in the cab
near the steering column place, the Floor---the driver’s cab floor near the crossbeam
place, the Pole---the cab threshold near the automobile column, to study its
displacement and acceleration along with the time change after collision.
Figure 3(a) has demonstrated that when colliding at the speed of 48.3km/h, the
displacement of the Bumper and Mid are changing in the collision process. Before
the collision occurs, the automobile moves along the x axis direction (there is a
20mm gap between the automobile and the rigid wall), and the displacement forward
increases with the maximum of 20mm. After the collision between the automobile
and the rigid wall , these two points move to the x axis negative direction under the
effect of the collision, and the displacement changes from positive to negative; the
point Bumper reaches -60mm at 100ms, the negative maximum value, the change
quantity of displacement is △U=80mm.
Because this point also belongs to the left carline, it means that the left carline
has had the big flexure deformation. The spot Mid is in the middle of the bumper.
After the collision occurs, the middle of the bumper gets deformed rapidly
backwards. At 100ms, the move maximum reaches -138mm again, and the change
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 919
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quantity of displacement is △U=158mm, which indicates that the middle bumper

flexure deformation is bigger than that of the left carline.
Figure 3(b) has demonstrated that when colliding at the speed 56.3km/h, the
displacement of Bumper and Mid are changing in the collision process. Compared
with Figure 3(a), Figure 3(b) curve shapes of the various dots are similar, which
shows that the change tendency of the displacement at each point is the same as the
fore-mentioned, but there is a little change in the value. The change quantities of
displacement about Bumper and Mid,are 125mm and 165mm respectively. Both of
which are bigger than the corresponding value of the preceding kind of situation.
This indicates that with the impact velocity increasing, the deformation of the auto
front aggravates.

Figure 3. The bumper moves - time curves.

Figure 4 promulgates the displacement changes of Pane1 in relation to F1oor.

According to the chart analysis, during 0~70ms in the collision, the displacement of
the point Pane1 in relation to F1oor is synchronically changing, and at this time the
deformation occurs mainly in the front of the automobile body. The steering column
moves backward and causes the displacement change of Pane1 in relation to F1oor
with a change quantity approximately equal to the distance that the steering column
moves backward in relation to the cab. The maximum of the relative displacement of
Pane1 and F1oor is 87mm by the diagram of 4(a) curves, and the retrodisplacement
value maximum simulative result conforms to the allowable relativity stipulated in
FMVSS that does not exceed 127 mms. Figure 4(b) demonstrates that when the
impact velocity increases to 56.3km/h and when Panel and Floor relative
displacement value is 100ms, it reaches the biggest 324mm. This means that the
display board in relation to the cab moves 324mm backwards, which has surpassed
the permissive retrodisplacement in FMVSS. This indicates that the cab has had the
serious deformation.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 920
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Figure 4. Relative displacements - time diagram of curves.

5.2 Comparative Analysis of the Acceleration Change Result

Auto safety standard FMVSS stipulates that the entire vehicle acceleration can
be measured with the acceleration meter placed in the vehicle door, in the vehicle
floor or in the automobile body threshold near the summer beam. For the
computation, the F1oor and Pole are taken. Besides these two spots, the Panel is also
taken into account so that a comprehensive analysis can be made of these three spots
to measure the cab acceleration.
Figure 5 demonstrates the Panel acceleration change, and Figure 6 is F1oor and
Pole acceleration change curves. The automobile acceleration is 0 before the
collision. When colliding at 48 km/h, the biggest Panel acceleration is 161.7g (in
which, g is the gravity acceleration); the minimum value is -238.4g; the average
acceleration according to the curve is -36.5g; the F1oor acceleration maximum value
is 9.4g; its minimum value is -29g; the mean value is -9.8g; the biggest Pole
acceleration information is 1.7g; its minimum value is -13.6g; and lastly, its mean
value is -5.6g. The mean value of these three points is -17.3g. Point Panel
acceleration change curve can also be seen in Figure 5(a). After colliding 68ms, the
acceleration of Panel begins to change fiercely, and before this, the front part of
automobile body absorbs the collision energy. After 68ms, the steering column starts
to move backward.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 921
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Figure 5. Display board acceleration change curves.

When colliding at the speed of 56km/h, the maximum acceleration of Pane1 is
349.5g; its minimum value -442g; its mean acceleration according to the chart
curvature is -46.3g; the Floor acceleration maximum is 18.8g; its minimum is -76g;
its mean acceleration is -28.6g; the Pole maximum acceleration is 4.2g; its minimum
is -19.2g; and lastly, its mean acceleration is -7.5g. The mean value of these three
points is -27.5g. Compared with the preceding kind of situation, the cab average
acceleration also increases, namely the impact velocity increases, the cab mean
acceleration increases (Figure 7).

Figure 6. Floor threshold acceleration change curves.

5.3 Energy Change Result Comparative Analysis
Figure 8 is the curves of the system kinetic energy and the internal energy
change. From the chart, the system kinetic energy assumes the misalignment,
decreasing gradually. When colliding at 48km/h, the system kinetic energy maximum
value is 98.3kJ, at 100ms, the system kinetic energy is 52kJ, and the decrement is
46.3kJ; the internal energy minimum value is 0; the maximum is 17kJ; and lastly, its
increasing quantity is 17kJ. When colliding at 56km/h, the kinetic energy decreases
from 132.8kJ to 70.8kJ; the kinetic energy is reduced by 62 kJ; the system internal
energy increases from 0 to 20.7kJ; and the internal energy increases by 20.7 kJ.

Figure 7. Cab mean acceleration Figure 8. System kinetic energy and

contrast chart. internal energy change curves.
Obviously, the amount of the automobile kinetic energy decrement and the
amount of the internal energy increase when colliding with the rigid wall by
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56.3km/h, both of which are bigger than that in the case of the 48.3km/h. With the
impact velocity enhancement, the kinetic energy decrement, as well as the internal
energy, increases separately. The internal energy increase is resulted from the
automobile body absorbing the impacting energy by caving deformation. Along with
the deformation enlargement, the internal energy also increases; simultaneously the
kinetic energy is reduced because of transformation. Part of the reduced kinetic
energy transforms into the internal energy of the deformation of the automobile body,
and another part of it transforms into the heat energy.
6 CONCLUSION
(1) With the impact velocity increasing, the deformation of the automobile body
front end enlarges, and the display board in relation to the cab backward
displacement also increases. In the two cases discussed above, this value increases to
324mm from 87mm, far exceeding the value stipulated in FMVSS. The high speed
collision causes the cab to have the serious deformation; thus, reducing the crew
member's surviving space and endangering the safety of the crew members.
(2) The cab mean acceleration also increases along with the impact velocity
enhancement.
(3) With the impact velocity promotion, the system kinetic energy rejection
increases, and the increased amount of the system internal energy also rises.
(4) According to the characteristics, the security of the automobile body
collision is divided into three sectors; namely the soft sector, the collision
accommodating sector, self-protecting sector. In these three sectors, the rigidity of
the self-protecting sector should be strengthened to guarantee the crew members’
safety when a collision happens at an increased speed.
REFERENCES
Zhang Guirong. (2003). “Research on the vehicle frontal safety and numerical
analysis”. Jilin University, Changchun.
M.M Kay Melbourne, JA Wolf. Lizhi Chen translation. (1987). “Hyundai Motor
analysis of the structure”. People's Transport Press, Beijing
Tang S.C. (1981). “Finite element prediction of the deformed shape of automobile
truck deck-lid during the binder-wrap stage”. Chen C.C. Experimental
Verification of Process Models, ASM Metals Park, OH, 189~203
Li Jiang. (2000). “Mechanical accidents”. Machinery Industry Press, Beijing,100 ~
113
Jia Hongbo, Huang Jinling, Guo Konghui, Gu Tao, Lieutenant Colonel Wang, Zhang
Liyu. (1998). “Collision Auto Body structure of the performance of the
computer simulation, evaluation and improvement”. Journal of Jilin
University of Technology, 1998 (2): 6～11
Wang Xuan, LI Hongguang, Zhao Hang. (2001). “Modern Motor safety”. People's
Transport Press, Beijing
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Application of Risk Acceptance Criteria in Developing Maritime Safety

Standards

Junzhong BAO1, Shuang ZHANG2, ZhengJiang LIU3

1
Navigation College, Dalian Maritime University, P.O. Box 116026, Dalian, China;
Office phone: 041184724527；email:baojunzhong@hotmail.com
2
Navigation College, Dalian Maritime University, P.O. Box 116026, Dalian, China;
Office phone: 041184726138；email:zhangshuang@dlmu.edu.cn
3
Navigation College, Dalian Maritime University, P.O. Box 116026, Dalian, China;
Office phone: 041184729825；email:liuzhengjiang@dlmu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) has been widely applied in developing
Maritime Safety standards by International Maritime Organization (IMO). It is an
applying process of risk analysis and risk management theory to maritime safety
standard-settings. FSA projects, completed by some member states, have been
submitted to IMO for consideration and the results will gradually affect IMO
standard-settings. These research projects have verified and enriched FSA-based risk
analysis and risk acceptance criteria recommended by IMO, and a relatively
systematic risk acceptance criteria has been developed. Based on the summarization
of these acceptance criteria, this paper formulates a relatively comprehensive index
system applicable in maritime safety risk assessment. Furthermore, the paper
highlights the absence of human error probability index of marine accidents in the
current risk acceptance criteria. In order to improve the drawbacks of lack of
randomness resulted from inadequate observational data in human error analysis and
increase the credibility of the calculated human error probability, the paper suggests
the introduction of Monte Carlo model to the existing human error quantitative
analysis methodology. The findings of this paper will enhance the effectiveness of
maritime safety risk assessment and benefit the validity of human error analysis in
marine accidents.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 924
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1 BACKGROUND
Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) is widely applied in the risk assessment of
the proposed standards in the process of developing regulations for maritime safety
and protection of the marine environment by International Maritime Organizaion
(IMO). FSA is an applying process of the risk analysis and risk management theory.
Its ideological origin comes from the applied risk management theory and method in
certain industrial fields. One of the essential issues is the formation of the risk
assessment model and the identification of the risk acceptance criteria. In order to
enhance maritime safety, special risk control measures should be adopted, and the
widely accepted risk acceptance criteria is the referential index on evaluating the
feasibility of risk control measures.
Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for use in the IMO
rule-making process (Hereafter refer to FSA Guidelines) has described the concepts
of individual, societal, environmental, and economical risks. These concepts have
been widely quoted by relevant research literatures. The common risk acceptance
criteria can be divided into four categories, which are individual risk acceptance
criteria, societal risk acceptance criteria, environmental risk acceptance criteria, and
economical risk acceptance criteria. These criteria provide a basis for risk analysis in
the decision-making process. This paper summarizes the risk acceptance criteria
applied in the FSA process, and based on the current research situation, it researches
on how to further enrich these criteria, and explores the lack of assessment index of
human element in FSA.
2 RISK ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
2.1 Risk Assessment Criteria of Maritime Safety
2.1.1 Risk Index
Risk is commonly understood as the uncertainties of loss. These uncertainties
mean the deviation between the expected results and the actual results. When
assessing the risk levels, the probabilities of the hazards and degrees of the
consequences should be considered. In FSA Guidelines, risk is defined as the
combination of frequency of a hazard and the magnitude of the consequences of the
occurrence (IMO, 2007). Formula (1) is the quantitative formula of risk levels
recommended by the Guidelines. For the purpose of computational convenience,
formula (1) is replaced by the formula (2), which is a logarithmic risk index of
formula (1). As for the Frequency and Severity in formula (1), IMO recommended
the quantitative index in Table 1 and Table 2.
Risk = Frequency × Severity (1)

Log ( Risk ) = Log ( Frequency) × Log ( Severity) (2)

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Table 1. Definition of Frequency.

Frequency Index(FI)
FI Frequency Definition F(per ship year)
7 Frequency Likely to occur once per month on one 10
ship
5 Reasonably Likely to occur once per year in a fleet of 0.1
probable 10 ships
3 Remote Likely to occur once per year in a fleet of 10-3
1000 ships, i.e. likely to occur in the total
life of several similar ships
1 Extremely Likely to occur once in the lifetime(20 10-5
remote years) of a world fleet of 5000 ships
(Source: IMO, 2007)
Table 2. Definition of Severity.
Severity Index(SI)
SI Severity Effects on Human Effects on Ship S(Equivalent
Safety fatalities)
1 Minor Single or minor injuries Local equipment 0.01
damage
2 Significant Multiple or severe Non-severe ship 0.1
injuries damage
3 Severe Single fatality or Severe damage 1
multiple severe injuries
4 Catastrophic Multiple fatalities Total loss 10
(Source: IMO, 2007)
Table 3 is the risk index matrix recommended by IMO.
Table 3. Risk Index Matrix.
Severity(SI)
1 2 3 4
FI Frequency Minor Significant Severe Catastrophic
7 Frequent 8 9 10 11
5 Reasonably probable 6 7 8 9
3 Remote 4 5 6 7
1 Extremely remote 2 3 1 5
(Source: IMO, 2007)
The indexes recommended by IMO simplified the process of risk assessment
in standard-setting process, especially the assessment of risk level.
2.2 Risk Acceptance Criteria
2.2.1 Individual Risk Acceptance Criteria
The common methods to identify individual risk acceptance criteria are
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ALARP principle, Risk Matrix, AFR Value, AIR Value, AI Value, etc. (Li, 2003). In
FSA, the major method to identify the individual risk acceptance criteria is the
ALARP principle. By learning from standard settings by other industries or
organizations, the applicable individuals risk criteria in FSA is upper boundary for
the ALARP region (Maximum tolerable risk level with the unit fatality probability
per year): crew members, 10-4; passengers and other public ashore, 10-5. As for all
the people involved, the lower boundary for the ALARP region (negligible
maximum risk with the unit of fatality probability per year) is 10-6. IMO suggests that
the FSA of new ships should apply this index (IMO, 2006).
An FSA proposal submitted by Norway provides the acceptable criteria for
individual risk applied in several countries and regions. The acceptable criteria for
international industrial individual risk (IMO, 2006). The proposal provides the
average estimated individual risk acceptable standards for seafarers in different ship
types as well shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Individual fatality risk (annual) for crew of different ship types, with the
proposed Individual Risk acceptance criterion (Data from 1978 to 1998, Data Source:
LMIS; IMO, 2006).
2.2.2 Societal Risk Acceptance Criteria
The common methods to identify societal risk acceptance criteria are the
ALARP principle, Risk Matrix, FN-Curve, PLL Value, FAR Value, VIIH Value,
Economic Optimization, the average estimated individual risk, etc (Li, 2003). The
major methods to identify the societal risk acceptance criteria are FN-Curve, PLL
Value, and ICAF Value, etc.
When developing the societal risk criteria with the FN-Curve, in principle a
comparison, can be drawn between the assessed FN-Curve and the standardized
FN-Curve. If the shape of the assessed FN-Curve is similar to or higher or lower than
the standardized FN-Curve, the risk level of the assessed FN-Curve can be identified
accordingly. However, if there is a crossover point between the assessed FN-Curve
and the standardized FN-Curve, the risk level of the assessed FN-Curve should be
identified by other appropriated methodology (Li, 2003). Societal Risk reflected by
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FN-Curve shows the relation between the frequency of an accident and the number
of fatalities, i.e. the frequency of an accident in which the number of fatalities are
presented. Meanwhile, in a FN-Curve, not only the average number of fatalities, but
also the risk of more fatalities in a single catastrophic accident can be assessed (IMO,
2007).
The other effective tool to evaluate the societal risk is Potential Loss of Life
(PLL). PLL is defined as the frequency of certain risk that can occur ina whole group
of people of a certain area in a certain period. Compared with FN-Curve, PLL is
much simpler and a more practical format of Societal Risk. As for the specific social
activity, PLL can be developed by considering the economic value of the activity and
its relation to the Gross National Product (GNP). A FSA proposal submitted by
Norway provided the computational method of average acceptable PLL in ship
transportation (IMO, 2006).
2.3 Cost Effectiveness Analysis and Cost Effectiveness Index
The cost effectiveness index recommended in the FSA Guidelines includes
Gross Cost of Averting a Fatality (Gross CAF) and Net Cost of Averting a Fatality
(Net CAF). In comparing the different methods of Risk Control Options, Cost
Effectiveness Index is an effective reference for choosing the ideal Risk Control
Options (RCOs) (IMO, 2007)
2.3.1 The Calculation of Cost Benefit Index
In order to calculate the cost-effectiveness of RCOs, the cost and benefit of
individual RCO should be calculated first. After the estimation of cost and benefit,
these values should be combined with the risk reduction degrees. So far there are
many indexes which could be used to denote the cost effectiveness of risk control
options. The most commonly used is the Cost of Averting a Fatality, which includes
GCAF and NCAF. The relationship of these two can be shown in Formula (4) and
Formula (5) (IMO, 2007).
GCAF = ΔC / ΔR (3)
NCAF = ΔC − ΔB / ΔR = GCAF − ΔB / ΔR （4）
In which:
ΔC : the cost per ship in Risk Control Options.
ΔB : the benefit per ship in carrying out Risk Control Options.
ΔR : the risk reduction per ship, shown by the number of Averting a Fatality (and
the reduction of the equivalence to the number of deaths).
Presently, the commonly acceptable criteria adopted by FSA is three million
US dollars, only the Risk Control Options with a CAF less than 3 million US dollars
can be adopted(IMO, 2007).
If there are more than one option, then the problem of how to choose a feasible
option will be faced. When making the choice, the values of CAFs will be ranked,
the one with the smallest CAF value will be given the priority.
2.4 Risk Equivalence Concept
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In the process of defining the degrees of loss, there exists a question of

transforming fatalities and injuries into the equivalence of economic loss. In the
industry field, research has shown that there is a relationship between fatalities and
injuries which could be transformed. The equivalence ratio between fatalities and
major injuries and minor injuries are as follows (IMO, 2007):
(1)1 fatality equals to 10 severe injuries;
(2)1 severe injury equals to 10 minor injuries.
Based on the above criteria, the calculation of effective loss degree can be
carried out. The project “The Application of FSA in High Speed Craft (HSC)”
initiated by a Chinese Organization uses the equivalence ratio of 1 fatality equals to a
300,000 RMB economic losses (CCS, 1999). In the literature (Qin, 2005a), there
exists recommendation on using the equivalence of 1 fatality equals to a 800,000
RMB economic loss.
IMO also recommended the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) index in order
to denote the relation between injuries and health. In the situation of no injuries are
found, the number of injuries will be replaced by economic loss. The avoidance of
one fatality equals to 35 QALYs, see the Formula (5), and the unit used is U.S.
Dollar (IMO, 2006).
QALY = GCAF ( covering injuries / ill health ) / 35=$42,000 / per life year?(5)

The index is a practical and convenient reference of choosing Risk Control

Options. The index will be adjusted when being applied in different countries or
regions.
2.5 The Development of Environmental Risk Assessment Index System
Though Environmental Risk Assessment is also one of the FSA objectives,
there is no united Environmental Risk Acceptance Criteria presently. IMO has been
devoted to the discussion of Environmental Risk Index and Environmental Risk
Acceptable criteria since 2003.
2.5.1 Characterization of Severity
In order to apply the Risk Matrix recommended by FSA Guidelines, the
frequency of the pollution and the magnitude of the consequences have to be defined.
When analyzing the environmental impact, FI (Frequency Index) could be consistent
with the safety factors examples (Table 2) given by the FSA Guidelines. Based on
the current research results and development of the IMO discussions, there are
several opinions on the characterization of severity of pollutions:
(1) Volume of Oil Spills
Norway and Germany suggest that using the volume of pollution (mainly oil)
spills to denote the severity of the pollutions, as shown in Table 4
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Table 4. Severity Index for Pollutions (Spills).

SI Severity Volume of Oil Spills
1 Minor ＜ 1t
2 Appreciable 1t-10t
3 Significant 10t-100t
4 Severe 100t-1000t
5 Catastrophic ＞ 1000t
(Source: IMO, 2008)
2.5.1.2 Recovery Time
NORSOK Z-103 classified the “Severity” into four levels based on the
“Recovery Time” of the pollution. Greece then further suggested that a more severe
level, catastrophic level, should be added based on the former four levels (IMO,
2008). The classification, indeed, reflects the severity of environmental impact
caused by pollutions and it is applicable to many kinds of pollutions.
Table 6. Severity Index for Pollutions (Recovery Time).
SI Severity Recovery Time
1 Minor One month to one year
2 Appreciable One year to three years
3 Significant Three years to ten years
4 Severe ＞ ten years
5 Catastrophic ＞ one hundred years
(Source: IMO, 2008)
2.5.1.3 Others
The United Kingdom regards that there are two aspects of environmental risk.
One aspect of it is the risk to global environment caused by regular discharges, the
other is the accidental discharge risk (IMO, 2008). These two aspects should both be
considered in the FSA. When ranking the environmental risk of pollutions, these two
aspects should employ different methods. As for regular discharge, like CO2
emission from ships, the environmental risk should be assessed directly in a global
level. However, the accidental discharge, like the oil leakage caused by collision, the
analysis of frequency and severity should be carried out in a similar way of Safety
Assessment. The flow chart of the analysis is shown in Figure 2.
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Figure 2. Proposed Environmental Ranking Method.

(IMO, 2008)
In order to be consistent with the Risk Index, which denotes safety factors and
have a comprehensive consideration of safety and environmental factors, the method
uses economic instruments to combine the Safety Risk Index and Environmental
Risk Index, that is, a defined Risk Index equals to the damage of safety and damage
to the environment (environmental loss and cleanup costs).
2.5.2 Environmental Risk Assessment Criteria
In FSA Guidelines, neither FN-Curve nor PLL, can be directly applied to
assess Environmental Risk. There are several recommendations of Environmental
Risk Acceptable criteria as follows.
2.5.2.1 Criteria for Oil Leakage
If the pollutions are denoted by the leakage of the pollutants (mainly oil), then
a FT-Diagram, similar to FN-Diagram(T in FT-Diagram stands for the amount of
spill, but N in FN-Diagram stands for the number of fatalities), may be considered to
analyze Environmental Acceptable criteria. Germany suggests that ALARP boundary
in FSA should be fixed as Environmental Acceptable criteria based on the statistical
analysis of the historical data (IMO, 2008). The restraints of this method are the
same as the defects of using oil spills as Severity. Furthermore, in the FT-Diagram
whether the slope of ALARP boundary should remain -1 is an issue that needs to be
explored.
2.5.2.2 Criteria for Recovery Time
If the severity of the pollutions is expressed by Recovery Time, a method
similar to the FN-Diagram may also be employed to analyze the Environmental
Acceptable criteria after changing the abscissa into “Recovery Time.” In order to
determine Environmental Acceptable criteria, the criteria, that the time duration of
environmental impact caused by pollution must be far smaller than the time interval
of the pollution occurred, can be regarded as acceptable. So, the essential issue is to
determine the criteria of “far smaller.” If a ratio of 5% is regarded as the “far
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smaller” criteria, that means a pollution which needs 0.5 year to recover could only
happened once per 10 year at most, i.e. the probability per year is 0.1. If the
probability is larger than the above proposed one, it is an unacceptable. While if the
probability is smaller than the above proposed one, it could be regarded as negligible.
Therefore, the ALARP of the probability of this pollution is between 0.01 and
0.1(IMO.2008).
The advantage of this method is that as long as the “far smaller” criteria are
determined, the ALARP boundary will be easily defined; however, the employment
of “Recovery Time” to assess the severity of environmental impact itself has certain
restraints, so accordingly, the application scope of this method is restrained too.
2.5.3 Cost Effectiveness Assessment of Environmental Risk Control Plan
A reference Cost of Averting Environmental Damage, similar to CAF, is to be
developed for the purpose of assessing the costs and benefits of Environmental Risk
Control Plan. If the amount of an oil spill is used to assess the severity of
Environmental Damage, then the Cost of Averting a Ton of Oil Spill (CATS) is used
as the Cost Benefit Assessment Index. It suggests that CATS should be fixed as
60,000 US dollars with a floating range of 30000~90000 US dollars (IMO, 2008).
In fact, the economic loss caused by oil spills includes cleanup costs,
compensation for the injured party and compensation for the third party. Cleanup
costs are closely related to the volume and the speed of oil spills, the geographical,
ecological, and economical features of the accident location, weather and sea
conditions, seasonal factors, and cleanup efficiency. Many researches have shown
that there are great differences in Unit Cleanup Cost in different situations, therefore,
it is difficult to define single reasonable acceptable criteria for CATS.
We can also consider equaling Environmental Damage to Economic Loss, so
Environmental Damage may be divided into cleanup costs and environmental loss
and then calculate the Cost for Averting Pollution. A proposal proposed by Greece
gives a formula similar to CAF (IMO, 2008).
2.5.4 Development Discussion
IMO has reached a common ground on the criteria on CATS currently, which
are to adopt Cost of Unit Oil Spills to represent CATS. IMO also agreed on adopting
different nonlinear CATS threshold based on different volumes of oil spills, rather
than a single threshold. Furthermore, an agreement on the issues of Frequency Index
(FI) and how to collect and report the relevant data in the steps of “Hazard
Identification” is achieved. However, there are still controversies in the issues of
Severity Index (SI), selecting values from nonlinear CATS threshold. More effort is
needed to solve these key issues (IMO, 2008).
3 EVALUATION METHOD ON HUMAN ERROR
IMO gives considerable attention to the research and application of the Human
Factor for it is an important source of risk. Although the FSA Guidelines recommend
the methodology of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), there are some inadequacies
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of practical applications of the Human Factor in the FSA processing. For example,
how to consider Human Factor in a quantitative way in Risk Analysis, and how to
assess whether Human Error is in an acceptable range. The researches on this field
are still far from enough (Hu,2005b).
3.1 Classification of Human Error in FSA
FSA Guidelines divide Human Errors roughly into two large categories, i.e.
Physical Error and Mental Error (IMO, 2007).The rough classifications of Human
Error, recommended by the FSA, are not in consistent with the ones revealed by
current Marine Accidents reports, so a detailed classification of Human Error is
needed.
3.2 Classification in the Field of Aerospace
American research institution developed Human Factors Analysis and
Classification System (HFACS) based on the study of 300 naval aviation accidents
(Shappell and Wiegmann, 2000). This system subdivided the four levels of Human
Errors proposed by REASON Model, and 11 sublevels are being generalized. Every
sublevel includes detailed kinds of Human Errors. The subdivision makes REASON
Model have a practical application of value in analyzing aviation accidents. The
development of HFACS built a bridge between theories and practical analysis of the
causes of accidents in Swiss Cheese in REASON Model. It makes the Human Errors
revealed by aviation accidents much easier to be recognized and classified. HFACS
includes almost all kinds of Human Errors such as the conditions of the operators and
organizational failure, and its effectiveness has been verified by analysis of over
1000 military accidents(Bao,2010).
3.3 Current Popular Assessment Model
Most of the Human Errors classifications in aviation accidents summarized by
HFACS are similar to the Human Errors in marine accidents. HFACS System can
help the accident investigators identifying the Human Errors which caused marine
accidents, but it cannot determine the importance of the role of individual human
error in causing the accident. In order to enable HFACS to be used in the quantitative
analysis of the role of Human Errors, some scholars introduced FAHP into HFACS
(hereinafter refers as HFACS-Based FAHP methodology) The assessment results of
Human Errors given by qualifying experts revealed the main cause of the
accident(Metin and Selcuk,2009).
When using the FAHP methodology to have a quantitative assessment of
Human Errors, experts have to compare the Human Errors which caused a specific
accident under the same level and give a semantic evaluation. A corresponding
relationship should be developed between the given semantic evaluation and
Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFN) (Metic, 2009).
3.4 The Use of Monte Carlo Methodology
The number of experts, their professional level and other relevant factors will
influence the accuracy of the semantic evaluation of the frequency of a basic event.
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Especially when the number of the participating experts is small, the credibility of
the evaluation is weaker. On the other hand, if there are too many experts, the
credibility is improved while when converting the qualitative assessment into
quantitative analysis, the amount of calculation is increased considerably. Therefore,
a new credible and convenient quantitative assessment methodology needs to be
developed for the semantic evaluation of the frequency of a human error.
Furthermore, the fuzzy analysis on semantic evaluation only solved the ambiguity of
the evaluation results, while the randomness of the occurrence of a human error
remains unconsidered. A model which could introduce the randomness as well as
reduce the amount of calculation is preferred. A Monte Carlo Model could meet the
two above-mentioned requirements. Especially in the case of inadequacy of
observational data, the use of Monte Carlo Model can reduce the influence resulted
from subjective judgment on the probability of a human error, and in whole improve
the accuracy of the analysis of human errors, as well as, enhance the credibility of
analysis model (Bao, 2010). Introducing the Monte Carlo Simulation to Human error
assessment to get the probability of certain human error will be a basis for the further
research on Human Error Assessment Index.
4 CONCLUSIONS
4.1 The relatively complete and widely accepted Risk Assessment Index
System recommended by IMO are playing a more and more important role in
developing Maritime Safety Standards. These indexes are widely referred when
conducting relevant FSA projects.
4.2 There are no widely acceptable Environmental Risk Assessment Criteria
that could be regarded as reference. IMO has always been devoted to discuss
Environmental Risk Index and Environmental Risk Acceptable Criteria. Though
there are some suggestions, the proposed Index System needs to be further developed.
Therefore, the Environmental Risk Acceptable Criteria needs further research and the
effectiveness of criteria proposed by some Member States need to be further verified.
4.3 Currently, there are no criteria of probability of human error which could
be used as a reference in Risk Assessment Index System recommended by IMO.
Therefore, the direction of future research should focuses on the generalization of
practical reference index. A systematic study of Human errors in marine accidents
should be carried out with the reference of the current analysis model of Human
errors in other industries.
4.4 The application of Risk Assessment Index System recommended by IMO
in relevant fields, such as Ship Insurance and financing, needs to have further
research.
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REFERENCES
Chinese Classification Society (CCS). (1999).Guidelines for Application of Formal
Safety Assessment (in Chinese version).Beijing: The Author.
Shappell,S.A., & Wiegmann,D.A.(2000).The Human Factors Analysis and
Classification System–HFACS. Extracted on 30th Nov.2009.
from :http://www.coloradofirecamp.com/swiss-cheese/hfacs.htm.
Li,Q.D., Tang,W.Y., & Zhang,S.K. (2003). Review of risk acceptance criteria for
ocean engineering. The Ocean Engineering.V2lNo.2.p96-102.
Qin,T.R., Chen,W.J., & Hao,Y.G.(2005a). Formal Safety Assessment (FSA)
Methodology. China Safety Science Journal.V.15No.3.P88-92.
Hu,q.f., & Huang,h.w.(2005b).Modeling of risk acceptance criteria for tunnel and
underground engineering, In Chu Jian,Phoon Kok Kwang & Yong Kwet
Yew, geotechnical engineering for disaster mitigation and rehabilitation,
Proceedings of the 1st International Conference, p543-p550.
IMO.(2006).MSC72/16-formal safety assessment: decision parameters including
risk acceptance criteria, submitted by Norway.
IMO.(2007).MSC83/INF.2 -Consolidated text of the Guidelines for Formal Safety
Assessment for use in the IMO rule-making process
(MSC/CIRC.1023-MEPC/CIRC.392) Submitted by Denmark to MSC83.
IMO.(2008).MEPC 57/17-report of CG on FSA submitted by Greece to MEPC 57.
Celik, M., & Cebi, S.(2009).Analytical HFACS for investigation human errors in
shipping accidents. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 41(1).2009, Pages
66-75.
Bao, J.Z., & Liu,Z.J.(2010).Study on Model of Quantitative Analysis of Human
Factor. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 36 (2).2010,Pages xx-xx1.
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The Impact of the Accesses on the Operating Speed of Two-Lane Highways

Zhandong ZHU1 Jian RONG 2

1
Beijing Key Lab of Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Technology,
Beijing,China,1001; PH 8610-67396182; email: zhuzhandong@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2
Beijing Key Lab of Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Technology,
Beijing, China,100124; PH 8610-67392082; email: jrong@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
The accesses are the gates of vehicles leaving and entering into the road
system. The consistency of the accesses has a close relationship with the road
capacity. The accesses also have some impact on the natural operating speed.
Through the investigation of the speed of the vehicles on the main lane passing by
the accesses, a conclusion that they decelerated when they passed by has been made,
and that the range of deceleration has a close relation with the access interval. Then
the range of deceleration has been discovered by computing the delay of the vehicles.
And finally the reduction ratio of the operating speed to the accesses density has
been calculated. The conclusion provides a basic data for predicting the operating
speed of two-lane highways.
INTRODUCTION
The accesses are the gates of vehicles leaving and entering into the road system.
The density of accesses has a close relationship with road capacity. The more the
density, the more road conveniency, and vice versa. But with the setting of the
accesses, traffic conflicts and friction are entering the traffic flow, and the accesses
are usually the location of traffic turbulence. Improper interval between accesses and
an insufficiency in sight distance often causes traffic accidents. Moreover,the
existence of traffic conflicts and friction has some impact on the natural traffic flow
such as increased journey time and delay, thus decelerating the operating speed.
Accesses have a larger impact on drivers’ psychology than the other roadside
interferences. An investigation proved that 56% of all the drivers joining the
investigation lists the first factor as accesses, and 41% listed accesses as the second
or the third cause. To be brief, about 97% drivers deemed accesses as the three most
important of all roadside interferences (Wang Li et al., 2008).
According to the “Technical Standard of Highway Engineering,” two-lane
highways in China include secondary roads, third roads, and fourth roads. And
two-lane highways account for 71.4% of all the roads open to the traffic. Because of
their important function in the road network, two-lane highways have a priority when
intersecting with other lower roads, and researchers usually assume that the vehicles
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on the main road are not affected by the accesses. But in fact, because of the accesses,
almost all of the vehicles on the main road will decelerate when they pass by the
accesses. The reason for the deceleration is that the drivers adopt preventive actions
avoiding the start up of vehicles from driveways. And the more complex the accesses,
the more the reduction of deceleration of the vehicles on the main road. And it is
necessary to study the relations between the intervals between accesses and the
operating speed. Tt will also be useful in conducting a safety audit of the highway
routes.
LITERATURES REVIEW
Accesses are one part of roadside environments. Research on the impact of
the roadside environments on the operating speed has been conducted by various
researchers across the world. For example, through regression techniques Fitzpatrick
found that lane width was a significant variable for straight sections, but median
presence and roadside development were significant for curve sections (2001). Kim
and Noguchi found that roadside pedestrians, animals or trees would induce drivers
to overestimate speed, and then adopt a lower speed in their journey (2003). Martens
studied the buildings on roadsides and arrived at a similar conclusion (1997). Daisa
discovered that parking on the roadside could reduce operating speed remarkably
(1997).
Jun Wang developed preliminary operating speed models to estimate drivers’
selected speeds at tangent sections and horizontal curves on urban streets (2006).
These models include design features such as roadside objects, access densities,
cross-section features, alignment characteristics, and adjacent land use. The results
show that on-street parking and sidewalk presence are the second and third most
significant variables that affect drivers’ speeds on urban streets,follwed by roadside
objects including trees and utility poles, access density, and including driveways and
T-intersections.
Kay Fitzpatrick and Shaw-Pin Miaou utilized free-flow speed data collected
at 79 tangent sites in suburban/urban and rural areas in seven cities (2005). For each
site, roadway and roadside characteristics were collected such as number of access
points within the study section, roadside development type, lane width, and other
factors. Statistical testing revealed that posted speed limit was the only statistically
significant variable at a 5% alpha level. Access density followed next with an
approximate 20% alpha level. Several variables other than posted speed limit and
access density showed signs of influence on the 85th percentile free-flow operating
speed, including: median type, parking along the street, and pedestrian activity level.
A follow-up cluster analysis revealed the following noteworthy features: pedestrian
activity, parking, centerline, median treatment, roadside development, area type, and
signal density.
Gibert Hansen and Norman W.Garrick explore the effects of roadway and
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roadside environment characteristics on the speed chosen by drivers (2007). For the
roadside environment the following variables were measured: presence of sidewalks,
building setback, driveway density, and land use types. The results of the analysis
indicate that posted speed limit, land use type, roadway type, roadside parking, and
building setback are significant in influencing the mean free flow speed on roadway
segments.
Research in China has largely focused on about roadside environment safety.
TANG Cheng-cheng and ZHANG Tie-jun analyzed the quantitative influence of the
accesses on the safety of two-lane highways (2007). The study discovered that on
two-lane montanic highways the number of total accident increased 4.36% and the
number of rear end collision accidents increased by 11.9 % when the access density
increased per unit.
BASIC ANALYSIS
To analyze the concept of the access interval reasonable, let’s look at the
following Figures 1 and 2.

Figure1. Access interval and the drivers insight.

The access interval of the upper figure in Figure1 is long enough to satisfy
the drives’ insight distance. Drivers only need notice the first access(2# access), and
need not notice the second. Further there is only one traffic conflict. But in the lower
figure the access interval is so small that the driver must pay attention to two or more
accesses, and the traffic conflicts increased to 2. This instance should be avoided in
design because of its poor safety. So increasing access interval properly can reduce
the number of traffic conflicts, lighten the driver’s workload, and thus ensure traffic
safety.
Vehicles opt for one of two choices if the vehicle ahead turns right to ensure
the safety – they might brake or change to another lane. The factor affecting the
driver is traffic volume. If the volume is so great that the driver cannot change lanes,
he will chose to brake. And if the volume is not so great, the driver usually chooses
to move to another lane.. Apart from the driver’s choice, the vehicles leaving or
entering the main road will also affect the vehicles on the main road.. Figure 2 is the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 938
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change of the speed of the experiment car passing by a T-intersection.

90

85
Speed(km/h)

80
T-intersection
speed
75

70

65
0
31
63
94
126
157
189
220
252
283
314
345
376
407
438
467
495
523
549
576
603
630
657
684
713
742
771
801
836
865
896
926
957
986
1017
1048
1078
1109
Distance（m）

Figure 2. The change of the speed of experimental car passing by a

T-intersection.
Figure 3 describes three instances about the vehicle and the accesses. In the
first instance, the vehicle is not affected by the vehicles ahead, and in the second
instance, the vehicle is affected by the access ahead, but in the third instance, the
vehicle must pay attention to two or more accesses ahead. In what follows
experiments will be drawn to study the relations between operating speed and access
interval.

Figure 3. The types of the vehicles affected by the accesses upriver.

Annotations:CL-the length of the car; PL-the pass length in the reaction
time; IL-the impact length; AI-access interval.
DATA COLLECTION
Access is a factor greatly affecting operating speed of two-lane highways. To
study the change of speed of the vehicles passing by the accesses, the first thing that
should be known is the location at which the vehicles start to decelerate. Through the
primary experiments, the driver started to notice the existence of the access ahead
before 250m and then chose to decelerate. Three MetroCounts will be located near
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 939
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each access chosen to study. MetroCount is an instrument that can measure the
vehicle speed, traffic volume, time headway, and so on. Three MetroCounts near
each access should be set as Figure 5 indicates. The experimental roads should have
little roadside interferences except for accesses.

Figure 4. MetroCount and its collocation.

Figure 5. The setting location of Metrocounts.

IMPACT OF ACCESSES ON OPERATING SPEED
Figure 6 shows the relation between the change of operating speed and
accesses. The setting of accesses has some impact on vehicles running on the main
road. And the impact is exhibited as the deceleration and recovery of the usual speed.

Figure 6. The relation between the change of operating speed and accesses.
To obtain the delay because of the accesses, the vehicle number must be
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 940
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signed when the car passed the access. And the speed of the cars should be in
contrast at the location No.1 and No.2 in Figure 1.The survey of the experimental
sections is listed in Table 1.The delayed time is calculated as Table 2 according to
the change of the speeds near the accesses. And the speed data was obtained without
the vehicles forcing their ways through the accesses.
Table1. The status of the experimental sections.
No of location Lane width(m) ADT
SEC15 3.75 1120
SEC16 3.75 962
SEC17 3.75 762
SEC18 3.75 674

Table2. The statistics of the delay because of accesses.

No of accesses Mean speed（m/s） Delayed time（s） Type of accesses

1 20.7 0.78 substandard

2 14.4 1.00 third
3 22.3 1.52 Second
4 18.3 0.83 substandard
5 14.5 0.92 substandard
6 20 0.86 substandard
Mean 0.99

The statistical data in Table 2 shows that the delay because of accesses is
quite small when compared to that of signal interscetion, and the type of accesses has
no distinct impact on the operating because of the priority of the main road. The
delay brought forth by the accesses is mostly because of the cautious driving.
Through more analysis of the delay, the relation between operating speeds and access
interval was showed as Figure 7.And Table 3 shows the relation of access interval
and the reduction ratio of the operating speed. If the free-flow speed is 90km/h and
the access interval is 500m, we then find that the reduction ratio of the operating
speed is 6.4% as shown in Table 3. And that of 80km/h and 400m is 6.5%, and so on.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 941
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100

90
Free-flow speed（km/m）
80
operating speed-50

70 operating speed-60

operating speed-70

60 operating speed-80

operating speed-90
50

40
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Access interval（m）

Figure7. The relation of intervals between accesses and the free-flow speed
Note: operating speed in Figure7 is free-flow speed in non-access road.
Table 3. Access intervals and the reduction ratio of the operating speed.
Access Access reduction ratio of the operating speed（％）
interval density
(km) (number/km) 90km/h 80 km/h 70 km/h 60 km/h 50 km/h
0.2 5.0 10.6 8.5 5.9 4.0 2.8
0.4 2.5 7.2 6.5 4.3 2.8 2.0
0.5 2.0 6.4 5.7 3.6 2.3 1.6
1.0 1.0 3.2 2.8 1.7 1.2 1.0
2.0 0.5 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6
3.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

CONCLUSION
It is crucial to predict the operating speed of the two-lane highway in the
safety audit. Access is one of many important factors affecting the operating speed.
This paper analyzed the speed change near the access and discovered that access
interval had close connection with the reduction ratio of the operating speed. the
delay caused by accesses was analysized and the relation between the reduction ratio
of the operating speed and access interval was obtained by conducting a road study.
The limitation of the study is that the type of accesses is not considered, and this may
have some differential effect on operating speed. The conclusion provides a basic
data for predicting the operating speed of two-lane highways.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 942
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REFERENCES
Daisa,J.M., and Peers, J.B. (1997). “Narrow Residential Streens:Do They Really
Slow Down Speeds?” ITE Annual Meeting Compendium, 546-551.
Fitzpatrick, K., Karlson, P.J.,Wooldridge, M.D., and Brewer, M.A.(2001). “Design
Factors that Affect Driver Speed on Suburban Arterials.: TRB 2001 Annual
Meeting.
Gilbert, Hansen., Norman W.Garrick (2007). “Variation in Free Flow Speed due to
Type and Roadside Environment.” TRB 2007 Annual Meeting.
Jun Wang (2006). “Operating Speed Models for Low Speed Urban Environments
Based on In-vehicle GPS Data[D].” Georgia Institute of Technology, 6.
Kay Fitzpatrick P.E., Shaw-Pin Miaou (2005). “Exploration of the Relationships
between Operating Speed and Roadway Features on Tangent Sections.”
Journal of Transportation Engineering.
Kim,H.J., Noguchi,K (2003). “The Relationship between Speed Perception and Road
Safety-An Attempt to Establish the “Illusion Engineering”.” 6th Asian
Design International Conference 2003 Japan.
Martens,M., Comte,S., Kaptein,N., (1997). “The Effect of Road Design on Speed
Behavior: A literature Review.” European Commission under the Transpot
RTD Program.
Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China.JTGB01-2003 Technical
Standard of Highway Engineering [S]. Beijing: China Communication
Press.
TANG Cheng-cheng., ZHANG Tie-jun., WU Ling-Tao (2007). “The Safety Analysis
of Accesses in Two-lane Highways[J].” Journal of Highway and
Transportation Research and Development, 2007, 24(6):122-125.
Wang Li,Luo., Man-liang., Zhao Yong-guo (2008). “The Impact of Road
Environment on Operating Speed of Two-lane Highways[J].” Journal of
Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2008,07.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 943
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A Study on the Operating Speed Model of Passenger Cars on Long Tangent

Expressway Sections

Yulong HE1, Hui TANG2, Xiaoduan SUN1, Ming ZHAO3

1
Associate Professor, Key Lab of Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing, 100124, P.R. China; email: ylhe@bjut.edu.cn
2
Research Institute of highway ministry transport, Beijing 100088, China
3
China Highway Engineering Consulting Group Company LTD.

ABSTRACT
On the basis of exploring the significance of research on the vehicular
operating speeds on long tangent expressway sections, this study collected the
continuous and undisturbed operating speed data of passenger cars on long tangent
sections by advanced (vehicle-based) GPS devices and analyzed the vehicular
operation speeds on the sampled long tangent expressway sections. Then, in
consideration of the variations of vehicular operating speed on long tangent sections
and drivers’ characteristics on the sections such as tendency toward speeding, lagging
responses, etc, a model of continuous vehicular operating speeds on long tangent
sections was developed in the form of a second order differential equation.

1. INTRODUCTION
Expressways are fully accessible and controlled with complete separation of
traffic of opposite directions. They usually have good driving conditions with almost
no interference from pedestrians and other traffic modes. If the tangent sections are
too long, however, drivers need a considerable amount of time to finish the sections.
Driving on long tangent sections lacks changes in the surrounding environment and
requires little maneuvering, which results in drivers’ reduced attention and could lead
to them falling asleep, a contributing factor to traffic accidents on tangent expressway
sections.
The statistics of traffic accidents for three consecutive years on an expressway
on the north China plain show that 358 accidents occurred on tangent sections,
accounting for 54.66% of the total accidents, while the mileage of tangent sections
only accounts for 20% of total mileage. It shows that the study of driving behavior on
tangent expressway sections is very important for traffic safety.
Bong-Jo Chung (Bong-Jo Chung, et al, 2001) of the republic of Korea used
drivers’ behavior and a response detecting vehicle to study the safety effects of
driving on long tangents. A long tangent section and a normal road section (a
combined section of tangents and curves) of 10 kilometers were selected. The
operating speed of 120 km/h is used for the two sections. The variation range of
longitudinal slopes on the tangent section was ±1% and the range on the normal
section is from 0.4% to 2.1%. The drivers’ behavior and response detecting vehicle
were used to collect the on-site data of drivers’ physical and psychological signal
change rate and also information on the surrounding environment during the driving
process. Then drivers’ physical responses to the tangent sections were analyzed and
the results showed that when the driving time duration was within 60 minutes, there
was no significantly different tendency for driving either on the tangent section or on
the normal section. However, when the driving time duration is longer than 60
minutes, the results showed that the relative intensity values of β brainwave decreased,
with higher decreasing magnitude for the tangent section. Especially for the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 944
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hindbrain, which controls the optical nerves, the value of β wave for the tangent
section decreased 2.2 times and the decreasing magnitude was 2.7 times higher than
the normal section. A large amount of statistics showed that under the pre-condition
that drivers has driven for one hour before entering the tangent section, the value of β
waves decreased significantly from the location of 4.2 kilometers of the tangent
section. Therefore, it showed that the maximum length of tangent section for road
design was 4.2 kilometers.
The above domestic and international studies on long tangent sections agreed
that the maximum length of the tangent section should mainly consider the time when
drivers show signs of fatigue. This study collected data on drivers’ behavior and
vehicular operating speeds on tangent expressway sections and studied the variation
tendencies of driving behavior on tangent sections as the basis for the research on
maximum length of tangent sections, with the ultimate purpose of improving the
safety status on tangent expressway sections.

2. MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING OPERATING SPEEDS

Major factors affecting vehicular operating speeds on tangent expressway
sections include vehicle performance, speed expectation, and subjective speed limit.
Speed determined by vehicle performance
The difference of vehicles in vehicle type, driving force, acceleration and
deceleration performance, sound proofing and damping performance results in the
variation of vehicular operating speed.
In 1997, Autocar magazine published the average maximum vehicular speed
for different types of vehicles as follows:

Table 1. The Average Maximum Vehicular Speed for Different Types of Vehicles.
Medium-
Medium High
Mini Regular High
Level Level
Level
Engine Capacity (L) ≤1 1~1.6 1.6~2.5 2.5~4 ＞4
Average Maximum Speed
145 177 207 232 241
(km/h)

Vehicle performance means the vehicular acceleration quality including

stationary, i.e. the torque response, noise and vibration of the power unit, which can
only be determined through assessment by the drivers subjectively.
Speed expectation
McLean was the first person to give the definition of speed expectation as “the
operating speed selected by drivers without the constraints of alignments under free-
flow condition” (McLean, J., 1981). Speed expectation is the reflection of driving
behavior and it is affected by many factors including road geometrics, traffic flow
conditions, service level, the percentage of heavy vehicles, etc. It also relates
significantly to the surrounding environment and weather.
In the Design Consistency Module of the Interactive Highway Safety Design
Model (IHSDM) (Fitzpatrick, 1999), speed expectation was defined as follows: for a
specific design speed, due to variation of road environment, vehicles will be at an
actual operating speed, different from the design speed. The operating speed is
related to design elements of the section vehicles are operating on. In IHSDM, speed
expectation was explained as the corresponding operating speed for specific road
design elements. In the basic model of IHSDM, the speed expectation changes
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 945
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around the design speed and forms the speed distribution curve, which reflects the
characteristic changes of road design. The curve is shown in Figure 1.
Speed Expectation

Design Speed

Figure 1. Speed expectation distribution curve.

Subjective speed Limit of drivers

A driver usually holds his or her operating speed within a certain range due to
psychological, economical, safety and other considerations. In addition, his or her
selected operating speed is also determined by speed limit signs and law enforcement,
and this speed is called subjective speed limit. Subjective speed limit is a major factor
affecting the stable operating speed of vehicles.
In all, in good road conditions and for a single vehicle type, the vehicular
operating speed on tangent sections is largely determined by the subjective judgment
criteria of the safety level by the drivers.

3. RESEARCH ON VARIATION TREND OF VEHICULAR OPERATING

SPEED ON LONG TANGENT SECTIONS
Experiment scheme design
The vehicular operating speed on tangent sections is the result of multiple
factors including road conditions, traffic conditions, vehicle performance, surrounding
environment, weather, etc. In order to study the effect of road condition on vehicular
operating speed, this study implemented the experiment scheme design to minimize
the influence of traffic conditions and environmental factors and thus the expressways
having free-flow traffic conditions and little environmental influence were selected.
In addition, good pavement smoothness and good slip resistance were also factors
considered for the selection of the expressways for the test subjects to minimize the
influence of the road conditions on vehicular operating speed. The vehicle type of
Santana from Volkswagen was selected as the test vehicle to rule out the influence of
different vehicle types on operating speed. Test dates were also selected on days with
clear sunny weather excluding fog, rain or snow to minimize the influence of weather
on the test results.
On the basis of the above test subject selections, this study adopted the high-
accuracy vehicle-based Novatel RT2 dual-frequency GPS device to collect the
continuous vehicular operating speed dynamically on long tangent expressway
sections. The device is capable of providing spatial location data with the accuracy
within 2-3 centimeters with the allowance speed range between 0 to 200 km/h and the
refresh rate range between 5 to 10 HZ. It can fully record the position, speed and
acceleration of every vehicle at the time interval of 0.1-0.2 seconds.
The paper selected two expressways from China’s northern and central plains
as the samples and Santana as the test vehicle type. Male drivers with over 10 years
of experience were selected as test drivers and data on their driving behavior were
collected.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 946
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China’s Design Specification for Highway Alignment offers the recommended

length of long tangent sections as 20 times of the speed. The computing operating
speeds of 120 km/h or 100 km/h were used for expressways in plains. Therefore, the
criteria for the selection of long tangent sections were determined as tangent sections
longer than 2 or 2.4 km. According to the criteria, 6 test expressway sections on a
northern Chinese plain and 21 expressway sections on a central Chinese plain were
selected.
Characteristics of driving behaviors after entering long tangent sections
The factors of road conditions affecting vehicular operating speeds after
entering a tangent section include the length of the section, the radii of the horizontal
curves before and after the tangent section, the difference between the radii of the two
horizontal curves, longitudinal alignment of the tangent section, cross section type, etc.
Vehicles entering tangent sections after horizontal curves usually have a speed
adjustment process and then a stable operating status after the completion of the speed
adjustment. Vehicles leaving tangent sections and entering horizontal curve sections
will again adjust their speeds to adapt to the driving maneuvers on horizontal curves.
Through the collection and analysis of vehicular operating speeds on long
tangent sections, the variation of the driving behaviors after entering long tangent
sections can be classified as two types: speed fluctuation decreasing and stabilizing
and minor speed fluctuation followed by a steady speed increase.
1. Speed fluctuation decreasing and stabilizing
When the lengths of the tangent sections are sufficient for vehicles to make
speed changes, vehicles entering the tangent sections will usually have an intermissive
acceleration process, which means that after a certain range of speed increase, there
will be a pause period before the start of another acceleration process until the
vehicles reach the speed expectations. Since the drivers’ speed expectations are
usually higher than the speed limits of the expressways, after their speed expectations
are reached, on one hand their expectations are met and they are satisfied
psychologically and on the other hand they still bear the pressure of speeding and
related traffic safety concerns. Therefore, they tend to decrease their speeds after
maintaining the speed expectations for a certain amount of time. After their speeds
are decreased to the level perceived by them as the safe speeds (subjective speed
limits), drivers’ psychological pressure is relieved and they will drive within the range
around the subjective speed limits for a while until the complete vanish of the
psychological pressure and the start of another cycle of acceleration, reaching speed
expectations, deceleration, and reaching subjective speed limits. The fluctuation
magnitude decreases as the driving time passes, as shown in Figure 2. The data of the
study was collected from a freeway on Shanxi Province.
Operating speed()km /h) 

 Length of tangent (km)

Figure 2. Vehicular operating speeds on long tangents .

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 947
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2. Minor speed fluctuation followed by steady speed increase

Operating speed(km/h)

Length of tangent (km)

Figure 3. Tendency of speeding for vehicles operating on long tangents.

If tangent sections are too long, drivers will have the tendency to speed. Long
tangent sections usually give drivers the impression of singularity and tediousness and
tend to incur their wish for leaving the tangent sections and entering new road
environments at fast speed, i.e. the tendency to speed, as shown in Figure 3. After
driving over 2 km on tangent sections, the vehicular operating speeds begin to
increase significantly.

4. DESCRIPTION OF VEHICULAR OPERATING SPEED MODEL ON LONG

TANGENT SECTIONS
Second order differential equation describing stimulation and response
The variation process of the vehicular operating speed on tangent sections is a
process of stimulation and response. When drivers operate on tangent expressway
sections, their perception of the surrounding traffic environment becomes the input for
their driving behavior. On the basis of judging and processing the above perceived
information, they perform certain driving maneuvers, which form the response of
their driving behavior to the input, reflected by the variation of the vehicular operating
speed.
As long as drivers are not asleep, they will continuously receive the input
information provided by the surrounding traffic environment. Although some
information might be redundant and the drivers might ignore some, the information
provided to the drivers by the surrounding environment can be looked as step signals.
Step input can be denoted in the follow equation:
⎧1, t ≥ 0
1(t ) = ⎨
⎩0, t < 0 .
Step functions are usually used as input stimulation to analyze the dynamic
characteristics of the system and the corresponding response to the input stimulation
is called step response.
For the driving behaviors of “speed fluctuation decreasing and stabilizing” on
long tangent sections, the corresponding variation trends (as shown in Figure 2) can
be fitted by the step response curve, as shown in Figure 4. During the time reaching
the first peak time tp, the part of first 0.7 kilometers (Figure 2) can be found as is the
process of acceleration. When the driver came to the adjustment time, the speeds on
the next section of the road decreased and then increased again; at last maintaining the
speed of 130km/h.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 948
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Figure 4. Step response curve.

It can be described by the following second order differential equation with

the output response of c(t ) and the input stimulation of x(t ) .
d 2 c (t ) dc (t )
+ 2ζω n + ω n c (t ) = ω n x (t )
2 2
2
Equation（1）
dt dt
where
ω n ——non-damping oscillation angular frequency, showing the response and
driving maneuver difference between individual drivers;
t ——time constant of the second order object, showing in the time variation of
the driving behaviors;
ζ ——damping coefficient, showing the delay of drivers’ perception and driving
maneuvers to the traffic environment;
cmax ——maximum value of output response, i.e. the subjective speed limit of the
drivers operating on the long tangent sections;
c(∞ ) ——stabilized value of output response (when time approaches infinity), i.e.
the main speed expectation of the drivers operating on the long tangent sections;
t d ——delay time: the time duration needed when the output reaches 50% of the
stabilized output value for the first time, i.e. the time duration needed when drivers
reach 50% of the speed expectation after entering the long tangent sections;
tτ ——rise time: the time duration needed when the output reaches the stabilized
output value for the first time, i.e. the time duration needed when drivers reach the
speed expectation after entering the long tangent sections;
t P ——peak time: the time duration needed when the output exceeds the
stabilized output value and reaches the first peak value cmax , i.e. the time duration
needed when drivers reach the speed expectation for the first time;
t s ——adjustment time, i.e. the time duration needed as drivers makes adjustment
around the speed expectation on the tangent sections;
For the driving behaviors of “minor speed fluctuation followed by steady
speed increase” on long tangent sections, the corresponding variation trends (as
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 949
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shown in Figure 3) can be fitted by the single step response curve. The curve is
shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Single step response curve.

When drivers operate on tangent sections, the input stimulation x(t ) is the
information of the traffic environment change of the tangent sections and it is a
function of time. Due to the personal differences in drivers’ physiological and
psychological characteristics, they have different perception levels. The output
response c(t ) is drivers’ reaction to the traffic environment change, also a function of
time. When drivers perceive the information that they are operating on a tangent
section, they have the reactions of acceleration. After the vehicular speeds reach their
speed expectations, as the driving time duration increases, drivers will again adjust
their speeds to subjective speed limits through the continuous perception of the traffic
environment. Finally, the vehicular operating speeds will fluctuate between the speed
expectations and the subjective speed limits and the vehicles will operate at speeds
around the speed expectations as time passes.

5. CONCLUSIONS
This study researched the variation trends of the vehicular operating speeds on
tangent sections and developed the above model. Then, it classified the driving
behaviors, determined the various criteria, and set up the quantitative model of
vehicular operating speed on tangent sections. It provided theoretical foundations for
further research on vehicle operating speed adaption between the tangent sections and
horizontal curve sections and for road alignment design.

REFERENCES
Chung, B. et al. (2001). “Limit Length Evaluation of Tangent on Freeway according
to Driver’s Physiological Response.” The 80th Annual Meeting
Transportation Research Board Washington DC, January.
McLean, J. (1981). “Driver Speed Behavior and Rural Road Alignment Design.”
Traffic Engineering & Control.” Printerhall Limited, London, England,
April, 22(4), 208-211.
Fitzpatrick, K. et al. (1999). “Speed Prediction for Two-Lane Rural Highways.
Federal Highway Administration Contract.” No.DTFH61-95-C-00084,
June.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 950
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Driving Simulation Study on Operating Speed of Hangzhou Bay Bridge

Benmin LIU 1, Zhongyin GUO 1, Mingshan FANG2

1
Key Laboratory of Road & Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, Tongji University,
Shanghai 200092, China
2
Hangzhou Bay Bridge Headquarters, Ningbo 315327, China

ABSTRACT
Regarding the operation environment and traffic characteristics of Hangzhou Bay
Bridge, this paper will be studying the driving behaviors under the rain, fog, strong wind and
other disastrous weather conditions. This paper also investigated the different operation
speeds in various operating environments through driving simulation experiment. Using the
driving simulation data, this paper established the deceleration model under the vehicle
deceleration moving and steady-state operation speed model. This paper, based on the
developed model, proposed the recommended value of speed control standards for Hangzhou
Bay Bridge operation under disastrous weather conditions. The research results have been
applied in the operation management of Hangzhou Bay Bridge.

INTRODUCTION
The 36km long Hangzhou Bay Bridge, spanning more than 120 kilometers, including
the approaches, from the south of Cixi, Ningbo to north of Haiyan, Jiaxing, ,is the world’s
longest cross-sea bridge.
Hangzhou Bay, located in China's eastern coast, is in a typical subtropical monsoon
climate zone that has a variety of severe weather-prone area, especially wind because of the
"narrow pipe" effect formed by the horn-like topography of Hangzhou Bay. Considering the
operating environment of Hangzhou Bay Bridge, it is of great significance to ensure the
operation of safety and smooth for the Hangzhou Bay Bridge transport functions and
economic development around the Hangzhou Bay Zone1.
The speed limit is an effective way to keep the traffic safety under control when there
are disastrous weather conditions. For the speed limit standard, it can’t prevent rear-end
accidents from occurring. If the standard is too high, it will reduce the highway's traffic
capacity, resulting in unnecessary economic losses2. Therefore, it is an urgent requirement for
the traffic safety under disastrous weather conditions to determine the proper relationship
between the different environmental parameters and the maximum safe speed limits. This
paper conducted a study of driving behavior, operation environment and operation speed by
means of driving simulation experiment.

Driving Simulation Experiment Design

Major Technical Indicators of Hangzhou Bay Bridge Alignment
There are three main control nodes constituting the Hangzhou Bay Bridge: north
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 951
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Interchange to and from the main bridge, south Interchange to and from the main bridge, and
the Sea platform. North Interchange (K45+000～K48+000) connects the Zhajiasu freeway
and East-West Road (also paralleling with provincial highway No. 01) with four entrances to
the main bridge. South Interchange (K86+000～K88+000) connects the planned west line,
with two entrances to the main bridge. Sea platform (K65+715~K66+495) has a total area of
nearly 10,000 square meters and 150 parking spaces. A Sea platform can play a role of
diverting traffic accident cars, fueling automobiles, excluding vehicle fault, the car repair and
maintenance. A Sea platform shelters from wind, fog, etc for vehicles and personnel on the
bridge and meets the demand of the emergency vehicle U-turn. A Sea platform is at K66+120
(Table 1, 2)
Table 1. Section Number and Horizontal Alignment of The Mainline.
Section number start end radius notes
1 K61+000 K65+385 line line1
2 Sea platform ramp
K65+385 K66+855
3 Sea platform ramp
4 K66+855 K71+568.542 line Line 2
5 K71+568.542 K72+570.184 South service zone
6 K74+600 K74+600 line Line 3
7 K74+600 K76+943.342 End interchange

Table 2. Horizontal Alignment Parameter.

main part of the bridge

factor ID start end radius 1 radius 2
1 49.0000 49.3907 ∞ ∞
2 49.3907 50.6124 7000 7000
3 50.6124 59.5012 ∞ ∞
4 59.5012 61.7004 10000 10000
5 61.7004 69.3718 ∞ ∞
6 69.3718 75.5121 10000 10000
7 75.5121 78.7208 ∞ ∞
8 78.7208 79.7699 6000 6000
9 79.7699 85.0000 ∞ ∞
ramp part of the sea platform
factor ID start end radius 1 radius 2 A
A 0.0000 0.1780 ∞ ∞
B1 0.0000 0.0500 ∞ 72 60
B2 0.0500 0.1497 72 72
B3 0.1497 0.2113 72 ∞ 66.613
B4 0.2113 0.2796 ∞ 260 133.227
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 952
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B5 0.2796 0.3452 260 260

B6 0.3452 0.4313 260 ∞ 149.657
Weather conditions parameters
Table 3. Highway Traffic Weather Classification.
weather traffic environment
meteorological definition classification
Classification classification
a wide range of fog Light fog, fog, Moderate fog, Heavy
fog clustered fog fog, Extreme fog(according to the
Section fog Visibility)
large-scale rainfall Light rain, Moderate rain, Heavy rain,
rain Extreme rain(according to the
local rainfall precipitation rate)
large-scale wind 13 rates，min 0，max 12
environment Rate 6 to rate12：Strong breeze,
wind
channel wind (cross wind) Moderate gale, Fresh gale, Strong gale,
eddy cyclones (cyclones) Whole gale, Storm, Hurricane
snow course light snowfall, moderate snowfall and
long section of ice and heavy snowfall(according to Snowfall's
ice and snow snow intensity)
ice needle, ice, and ice fog(according to
local sections of ice
the form of ice)
Complex rain and fog
weather storms (snow)
conditions sandstorm
According to the meteorological surveys and statistical analysis of Hangzhou Bay
Bridge region, historical data analysis and visibility records from two meteorological stations
of Andong and Haiyan during 2001-2004 showed the following:
(1)Days of visibility less than 50m during the four years: 8 days in andong (excluding
January to April in 2001and December in 2004), 15 days in Haiyan (excluding January to July
in 2001);
(2)Fog occurs mainly in 11,12 months and the minimum visibility of fog is about 30
meters or so; days with visibility <50m account for 9%, of which 16 occurred in the early
morning hours, about 70% of the total. There are 56 days with Visibility <100m, accounting
for 21% of the total number;
(3)According to Foggy Day Information of Zhapu and Cixi in recent 20 years, using
the theoretical frequency curve method, once in five years, the number of foggy days was 47
days a year, once in ten years, the number of foggy days was 52 days in Zhapu area; once in
five years, the number of foggy days was 38 days a year, once in ten years, the number of
foggy days was 52 days a year in Cixi area.
Experimental Equipment
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 953
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Test platform consists of driving simulation module (TOYOTA Yaris models) of a

variety of road and traffic conditions, the driving adaptive detection system, polygraph, eye
tracking system, Holter Instrument, etc. The driving simulator used in this test is shown in
Figures 1and 2, which has the test scene from the driver's visual angle.

Figure 1. Driving Simulator. Figure 2. Test Scene.

Simulation of geometric linear route and associated road traffic facilities
The operational line of Hangzhou Bay Bridge and operation environment of
Hangzhou bay bridge under disastrous weather conditions were considered in the driving
simulator test, as shown in Figure 3.

Hangzhou Bay Bridge Project Background and Analysis

Design documents and drawings Analysis of environmental parameters

Driving simulation road traffic scenes Analysis and setting of Fog,

wind, rain parameters

Comprehensive driving simulator scenario

Driver selection

Development of data collection

test Data analysis
of heart rate

Figure 3. Workflow.
Driving simulation test simulation line diagram is shown in Figure 4. The scene starts
from Andong interchange of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge to the South Bridge Approach; a
service zone and a sea platform are in the middle of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge3. Effect Picture
is shown in Figure 5. Hangzhou Bay Bridge has a relatively complete set of traffic signs and
safety markings.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 954
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Approach
Main bridge

Sea platform
Approac

Service
South line

Zone
h
Andong
interchange 2KM 1KM
1KM 1KM
3KM

Figure 4. Simulation Line Diagram of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge.

Main bridge South service zone

Andong interchange

Sea platform

north interchange

Figure 5. Simulation effect picture of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge.

Driver Selection
Take a random selection of 22 Beijing taxi drivers for the trial, 9 persons aged 20-30,
6 persons aged 30-40, 2 persons aged 40-50, 1 aged 50-60; 4 persons with driving experience
of 1-5 years, 9 persons with driving experience of 6-10 years, 4 persons with driving
experience of 11-15 years, 1person with driving experience of 16-20 years.

Data Analysis
Vehicles running on straight sections of road can be divided into two cases. One is on
steady-state speed, the other is on transfer road or slowing down or suddenly stopping through
rapid braking behavior, and of which, the speed of the trend is different. Decelerated driving
state can be characterized by deceleration. Steady-state process of moving can be considered
that the driver is under free-flow state driving behavior, driving behavior can be characterized
by its steady-state speed. Beijing University of Technology’s research suggests that when the
acceleration of vehicle ranges in ± 0.5m/s2 driving state is close to the uniform traffic. A
vehicle is considered as speeding up when acceleration is greater than 0.5 m/s2, and as
slowing down when acceleration is less than -0.5 m/s2.
Speed Calculation
Deceleration Calculation
Deceleration part of Straight sections of road is taken out from the time-part chart, (as
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 955
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shown in Figure 6, based on Cockpit data, the follwing data concerning deceleration
considered: Deceleration start time T0, Deceleration end time T1, Initial velocity V0(m/s), last
speed V1 (m/s), the initial distance S when deceleration begins, velocity V ' of vehicle in front.

Figure 6. Deceleration Part.

Obtained by Calculating:
Deceleration time Δ T = T1 − T 0 (2-1)

Velocity difference Δ V = V 1 − V 0

(Average) deceleration ∂ = Δ V / Δ T (2-2)

In order to analyze as whole the impact of environmental factors on the reduction

behavior, the data of the parameters correspond under the same environment and use SPSS
software for data correlation analysis, parameters with significant correlation are as follow:
vehicle deceleration time ΔT , V0, V1, a, S and V, these parameters associated with the
deceleration and environmental parameters Vis (visibility), f (friction coefficient) and wind
(wind speed) are not highly relevant; Meanwhile, the environmental parameters Vis (visibility)
and f (friction coefficient) are highly relevant.
Calculation and Analysis of Steady-state Speed
The speed of the driver is dynamic. A speed that changes slightly when running on
section of a road is analyzed as steady-state. Define the time spent on this section as
steady-state time, which is shown in Figure 7. Suppose there are m time sections which are
themselves steady-state time Ti ( i =1, 2…, m ). When calculating the arithmetic mean of the
speed of corresponding, the value is defined as arithmetic mean of straight line V . At the

same time, sorting all the corresponding speed, V15% and V85% are calculated.

When many time tests are made, calculating V , V15% and V85% , coupled with setting of
environmental parameters (Visibility, friction coefficient and wind speed) set are tabled.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 956
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Figure 7. Steady-state Time.

Obtained according to the test data analysis:
(1)Visibility and steady-state average speed: When visibility is less than 200m, with
the visibility increasing, there is an upward trend in the average overall there are no big
difference for the average speed between the visibilities in the 200m and 500m; however, in
the same kind of visibility, the average speeds are discrete.
(2)The relationship between friction coefficient and average velocity: As the friction
coefficient increases, there is an upward trend in the average overall, but at the same friction
coefficient, the average speeds are discrete rate as well.
(3)Analysis of V15% , V85% : the trend of changes of V , V15% and V85% are very similar
versus changes in environmental parameters, discrete of the three kinds of velocity were
relatively large, mainly due to calculated by the speed of data of three steady-state section
Calculation Model of Operation Speed
Multiple Regression Model of Road Section Deceleration
(1)Multiple regression models by deceleration parameter
Multiple regression model of relatively good correlation between deceleration
parameters can be established using obtained data:
1) Multiple regression model between deceleration a the initial velocity V0 and the
initial distance S
a = − 1.458 − 0.187 × V 0 + 0.033 × S (2-3)

2) Multiple regression model between deceleration time ΔT , the initial distance S

and reduced speed ΔV
ΔT = 0.662 + 0.018 × S − 0.126 × ΔV (2-4)
According to the model 2.3, deceleration is affected by initial velocity V0 and the
initial distance S: The high initial velocity V0 (Control initial distance S), the absolute value of
a deceleration is greater; the greater the initial distance S (Control initial velocity V0), the
absolute value of deceleration is smaller. This is in line with the actual situation.
According to the model 2.4, deceleration time is affected by the initial distance S and
reduced speed ΔV : The initial distance S greater ,the longer the deceleration time ΔT is when
ΔV is the same. The greater ΔV , the shorter ΔT is when S is the same, this is in line with
the actual situation as well.
(2) Multiple regression model by deceleration parameter and Environmental parameters
Relationship between parameters of deceleration behavior exist qualitative correlation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 957
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to some extent. This relationship is affected by operating environment. Therefore, regression

model by parameters of deceleration behavior、the visibility and friction coefficient is shown
as follows:
1) Multiple regression models by the initial distance S, Vis (the visibility), f (friction
coefficient) and initial velocity V0
a) Modeling with normal weather conditions’ data
S = 28.452 + 0.149 × Vis − 67.672 × f + 2.989 × V0 (2-5)

b ) Modeling excluding abnormal normal weather conditions’ data

S = 16.985 + 0.482 × Vis − 59.648 × f + 1.449 × V0 (2-6)

2) Multiple regression model by the initial distance S, Vis (the visibility), wind and
initial velocity V0
a) Modeling with normal weather conditions’ data
S = 19.126 + 0.081× Vis + 2.994 × Wind + 2.507 × V0 (2-7)

b) Modeling excluding abnormal normal weather conditions’ data

S = 7.970 + 0.383 × Vis + 1.751 × Wind + 1.293 × V0 (2-8)

From the model 2-3 and 2-4,we can not obtain the impact of environment factor on
deceleration behavior, but from the model 2-5, 2-6, 2-7, 2-8, we can see that parameters S and
V0 in models 2-3 and 2-4 are constricted by environment factor. In the same weather
conditions, the initial distance S will increase with the initial velocity V0 increasing, This is in
line with the actual situation. Meanwhile, through the model, we learn that controlling the
initial velocity V0, The initial distance S will be increased with the visibility increasing, will
be decreased with friction coefficient increasing, and will be increased with the wind
strengthening
From integrating the above two types of models, decelerating process model under
different environment can be obtained by combined model 2-9:
a = − 1.458 − 0.187 ∗ V 0 + 0.033 ∗ S
Δ T = 0.662 + 0.018 ∗ S − 0.126 ∗ Δ V
S = 16.985 + 0.482 ∗ Vis − 59.648 ∗ f + 1.449 ∗ V 0
(2-9)
" Vis ∈ ( 25, 200 ) , f ∈ ( 0.3, 0.5 )
S = 7.970 + 0.383 ∗ Vis + 1.751 ∗ W ind + 1.293 ∗ V 0
" Vis ∈ ( 25, 200 ) , W ind ∈ ( − 10, 8 )
Note：speed unit is m/s
Steady-state running speed regression model
(1)Multivariate linear model
Since only two kinds of wind speed values were set and during the experiment
we found that wind speed only affects the starting vehicle, which has no big impact on
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 958
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running vehicle4. Therefore, when vehicle running the straight road ,wind speed factor is
excluded .Regression analysis by steady-state speed Vi and environment parameters is
made using multiple linear regression model. Formula 2-10.is obtained
V i = b0 + b1 × Vis + b2 × f R (2-10)

Where: Vi ――steady-state speed (km/h); b0――constant；Vis――visibility(m)；

fR――friction coefficient.
Determining the regression model of the regression effect by F test, take a significant
level of α = 0.1, F statistic P value is 0.00, is less than α, Showing that Regression equation
has a significant regression effect, at least one regression coefficient in equation is not 0;
partial regression coefficient calculated in the model is that b0=62.17，b1 =0.06 and b2 =3.52.
Significance of partial regression coefficients by t-test, the p value of regression coefficients
of b0、b1and b2 are 0.00, 0.00 and 0.83, setting α=0.1, only b0 and b1 are significant, the p
value of p is great than 0.1, not significant.
From the point of view co linearity index: Tolerance are 0.16, 0.16, which are small
(Tolerance range is 0 to 1, the smaller the value, the stronger between the variable
collinearity), Therefore can not refuse the hypothesis that the visibility and the friction
coefficient are collinearity.
Analyse the correlation between the visibility and the friction coefficient, which is
0.92, therefore multiple regression equation can not include the visibility and the friction
coefficient which are linearly related variables at the same time
(2)Unary linear model
5
Based on the above conclusions, only including the visibility, to establish unary linear
model equation 2-11:
Vi = b0 + b1 × Vis (2-11)
According to solution and inspection, the establishment of the multiple regression
model formula is
Vi = 63.28 + 0.06 × Vis (2-12)

(3)Unary non-linear model (log model):

According to data analysis, the trend of Steady-state velocity versus changes in
visibility is obtained, the logarithmic model between vi and the visibility is established. See
Formula 2-13
Vi = b1 ln (Vis ) + b0 (2-13)

According to solution and inspection, multiple regression models is that

Vi = 13.89 ln (Vis ) + 6.02 (2-14)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 959
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Model Application
According to the deceleration model 2.9 and the speed limit standard under rain, fog
conditions, the safe deceleration distance and the corresponding deceleration are calculated.
Taking into account some deceleration happened in rear-end accident and that the road surface
is generally humid under fog condition and friction coefficient is low. Driving
distance-control standards under fog condition is shown as in figure 3.1.As the driving
distance is more difficult to control, in control of the actual operation, these values are
recommended to drivers. From the data of rear –end test, most speeds are more than 60km/h,
driving distance are less than 40m. Therefore, the controlled speed and recommended driving
distance under rain and fog condition in Table 4 are safe6.
Table 4. Traffic Control Measures in Rain and Fog Conditions.
safe driving distance
visibility(m) Controlled speed(km/h)
recommended
>200 under 90km/h 140
150～200 under 80km/h 110
100～150 under 65km/h 80
50～100 under 40km/h 50
under 15km/h, closed
25～50 30
depended on condition
<25 road closed
The model proposed safe the driving distance recommended under specific speed limit
value which contains very complicated relationship between People - vehicle - road system
parameters and driving behavior. In subjective consciousness, the lower visibility, the greater
distance driver control to ensure safety. However, due to a lower speed, driving distances
become smaller. So the relationship between driving behaviors characterized by driving
distance and running speed and People - vehicle - road system operating environment can
better reflect the dynamic equilibrium of the system. Therefore, that this paper includes
deceleration as a safety standard is reasonable.
Conclusion
Through the study of the particular circumstances and characteristics of the road, a
following conclusion can be drawn:
Driving simulation experiments can simulate operation environment of Hangzhou Bay
Bridge under severe weather conditions, which tests pulse, galvanic skin, chest respiratory,
abdominal call, the vehicle operating speed; driving simulation experiments further validate
the rationality of mathematical models by environmental parameters, deceleration and
steady-state speed, establishing the regression model by the visibility, the friction coefficient
and the operating speed; the operation control standard of Hangzhou Bay Bridge under Severe
weather conditions is recommended using the established mathematical model which is being
applied.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 960
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REFERENCES
[1]Hangzhou Bay Bridge Project Report 2004
[2]Li Dehui, HuJiangbi, RongJian, etal. Comprehensive experimental scheme using AutoSim
simulator in driving behavior research[J]. Computer and Communication, 2006,
24(5): 9
[3]Karel Brookuis and Dick Do Waard·Measuring driving performance by car-following in
traffic[J]. Ergonomics,1994·
[4]Damodar N.Gujarati. Basic Econometrics China Renmin University Press, 2004
[5]Mills,T.C.:The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series,Cambridge University
Press,1993
[6]Liu Benmin. research on expressway safety operation strategies under atrocious weather
conditions[D] Tongji University, 2009
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 961
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Operating Speed Prediction Model Based on

Highway Alignment Spacial Geometric Properties

Zhongyin GUO1, Xiaohuan ZHOU1, Yin YAN 1, Qiang ZHANG 2, and Yue CHEN 2

1
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
Tongji University, Shanghai, China, ST201804; PH (86) 021-69585615; email:
zzxxhhzxh@gmail.com
2
Liaoning Communication Survey and Design Institute, Shenyang 110005, China

ABSTRACT
Speed is the key parameter of road alignments design. The alignments design
and evaluation based on operating speed is an effective way to solve safety design
problems. According to the geometric properties of road alignments, the compound
curvature of the alignments in highway’s horizontal and vertical curve combination
was calculated, and modified by gradient and section width in this article. According
to the road alignment evaluation index, which was composed by the modified
compound curvature, the relationship between the index and the operating speed was
analyzed and the operating speed prediction was established. The prediction model
was proved of high reliability through the contrast between the observed and
predicted values. This kind of prediction model, which combines the horizontal with
the vertical alignments, provided a new thought for the operating speed prediction.
This will apply calculating reference to the highway`s design and management
based on the operating speed in future.
Introduction
The researchers devoted much attention to linear continuity of the highway
at home and abroad. They thought that the linear continuity of highway alignment
design is one of the basic requirements, who put forward a number of different
research models and quantitative evaluation methodology (Hayward et al., 1985).
Among them, the concept proposed by Leisch, ec tal. (1997) that assessment the
linear continuity by the vehicle speed is the most enlightening, which is adopted by
the United States and western Europe in the methodology of linear continuity as a
foundation (Liu, 1992; Hassan et al., 2001; CMOC, 2004). The operating speed has
the availability of measurement makes it has the features of quantitative calculation
and analysis.
Linear designs using the operating speed as the main parameter, which is a
universal linear design method, is being recognized and valued, but the related
research is in the initial stage. The department of transportation in China published
"Highway Project Safety Evaluation Guide" (Zhen et al., 2004), on the basis of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 962
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analysis and tracking of road safety in Europe and the United States and other
countries evaluation results, which combined with China's national conditions and
studied in the operation of road and vehicle operating speed. Ke Zhen et al. (2004)
made related research on the relationship between the horizontal curve and operating
speed. In addition, Tongji University studied and analyzed a series of related issues
such as linear transition of tunnel import and export combining operating speed.
It is a key problem in the researches on the design method according to the
operating speed that establishing the operating speed prediction model, which is
used in the design phase or linear optimization stage to predict the operating speed
in various sections. According to the highway alignment spacial geometric
properties, this article provided the road curve evaluation index, which combined
with highway field research data, and established with the corresponding operating
speed prediction model.
Compound Curvature
Road alignment index typically includes horizontal curve radius, vertical
curve radius, vertical slope, horizontal angle, curve length, slope length, super-
elevation, cross slope, number of lanes, width and others. Some of these parameters
are independent, and partly are interrelated, but collectively, these parameters both
limit and constrain the vehicles, but also assist them. According to the road
information, drivers operate continually to adjust the vehicle track. When the driving
trend conflicts with the road alignments, the driver will adjust his vehicle to meet the
requirements until the recurrence of conflict. Figure 1 illustrates this situation.

Corner
Driving tend
Corner

Conflict point

Driving track
Driving track

Conflict point
Driving tend

Figure 1. Vehicle driving track.

Therefore, this article thought the road alignment as a three-dimensional
curve, and the compound curvature was calculated to establish the corresponding
operating speed prediction model.
The first step is to convert road alignment index to the curve function using
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 963
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the station as parameter, which mainly refers to the construction layout in coordinate
system by the domestic researchers7, functions related to the road curves calculated.
Figures 2 and 3 are the coordinate calculations of horizontal curve and of vertical
curve.

X normal line of azimuth angle

O
r( X'
p)

¦Â
Or
(o dx
)

dy
¦Â
dl p

d¦ Â
O'
O Y' Y
Figure 2. Coordinate calculation of horizontal curve.

Z
X
S

x p

i1 O' Y
i2
y

O L
Figure 3. Coordinate calculation of vertical curve.
According to the figures and unified parameters, the following equation is
calculated:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 964
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⎧ t ⎛ ke − ko 2 ⎞
⎪ x = ∫0 cos ⎜ ko t + 2 S t ⎟ dt
⎪ ⎝ ⎠
⎪ t ⎛ k −k ⎞
⎨ y = ∫ sin ⎜ ko t + e o t 2 ⎟ dt (1)
⎪ 0
⎝ 2S ⎠
⎪ i −i
⎪ z = z0 + e o t 2 + io t
⎩ 2S
Where ko and ke are the horizontal curvature of starting point and finishing
point in curve, m-1; S=le-lo is the length of the horizontal xoy projection, m; zo is the
vertical value of the starting point in curve, m; io and ie is the vertical slope of
starting point and finishing point in curve; t is the distance from the point p to the
starting point of the curve. It should be put out that the value of x, y and z in the
different curve section can be calculated independently.
In the higher mathematics, the compound curvature calculation equation8 is
r ′(t ) × r ′′(t )
κ (t ) = (2)
r ′(t )
3

⎛ x(t ) ⎞ ⎛ x′(t ) ⎞ ⎛ x′′(t ) ⎞

⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
Where, r (t ) = ⎜ y (t ) ⎟ ， r ′(t ) = ⎜ y′(t ) ⎟ ， r ′′(t ) = ⎜ y′′(t ) ⎟
⎜ z (t ) ⎟ ⎜ z ′(t ) ⎟ ⎜ z′′(t ) ⎟
⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠
After the coordinate calculations of curve are calculated into the equation
and simplified, the compound curvature equation of highway alignment is

ie − io 2 ie − io k −k k −k
( ) +( t + io ) 2 (ko + e o t ) 2 + (ko + e o t ) 2
κt = S S S S (3)
ie − io 3
(1 + ( t + io ) 2 ) 2
S
Where Κt is the compound curvature, m-1;
At a straight line of constant slope, ke=ko=0 and ie=io, so the Κt is zero
constantly, which means the compound curvature of the straight line is zero
whatever the slope value is. But when this equation is used to prediction model, the
slope of the straight line should not be ignored, so the slope-modification is
necessary. The curvature of vertical curve is quite different from that of horizontal
curve in the order of magnitude and action direction, etc. In the compound curvature
calculation, the right and left directions of horizontal curve, the up and down
directions of vertical curve are the same. But in the actual driving process, because
of gravity, the directions of vertical curve have the opposite impact on vehicles'
driving.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 965
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As a result, the equation was developed as

dit 2 − Bit it kt 2 + kt 2
κ t′ = 3
(4)
(1 − Bit it ) 2

Where dit=(ie-io)/S, is the ratio of change in slope; it=(ie-io)t/S+io, is the linear

interpolation of slope; kt=(ie-io)t/S+ko is the linear interpolation of horizontal
curvature m-1; Κt' is the modified compound curvature; B is the modification factor
of vertical curve;
All the data was collected from four highways in the northeast and the
middle of China, by MetroCount, a vehicle data collector adapting pneumatic tube.
Because of traffic flow of these highways, two types of vehicles were used to be the
representative models, which composed the 80% or above of the traffic flow. They
are type A (cars and small passenger vehicles) and type D (trucks and large
passenger vehicles), and 400 or above vehicles' data of each type was collected in
every collection spot. The B value is determined by multi-parameter nonlinear
regression, which is 134.041 for type A(R2=0.73) and 250.772 for type D(R2=0.665).
Figures 4 and 5 show the graphic of Κ't:
The B value of type D is more than that of type A, which means that the
effect of vertical slope to the acceleration performance of type D vehicles is more
obvious than that of type A.

Figure 4. Value of κt' when B=134.041.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 966
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Figure 5. Value of κt' when B=250.772.

Prediction Model
After the removal of the straight line in a constant slope, the data was
analyzed and the prediction model was established by linear regression. The
equations are as follows (type A had an R2 of 0.733 and type D had an R2 of 0.741).
Type A: v85 = 128.46e −95.57κ t′ (5)

dit 2 − 134.041it it kt 2 + kt 2
Where: κ t′ = 3
(1 − 134.041it it ) 2

Type D: v85 = 86.225e −85.66κt′ (6)

dit 2 − 250.772it it kt 2 + kt 2
Where: κ t′ = 3
(1 − 250.772it it ) 2
The other parameters are the same as above. Figures 6 and 7 show the
linear regression of different vehicle types.

Figure 6. Linear regression of κt' of type A.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 967
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Figure 7. Linear regression of κt' of type D.

Slope Modification
Before the slope modification was established, there was an assumption that the
operating speed in the straight line is constantly higher than that in the curve when
the other condition is the same. The observed data of the straight line in a constant
slope was analyzed and the prediction model was established by quadratic
regression. The equations are as follows (type A had an R2 of 0.834 and type D had
an R2 of 0.760), where i is the slope.
Type A: v85 = −2970i 2 − 174.88i + 112.83 (7)
Type D: v85 = −1593i 2 − 226.77i + 77.358 (8)
Width Modification
In this operating speed prediction model, the road alignment was considered
as a three-dimensional curve without width, and the relationship between road cross
section and operating speed was not considered. The data of multiple highways in
China (straight lines in slope range from -2% to 2%) was analyzed and the quadratic
regression was made, show as by Figure 8.

Figure 8. Quadratic regression of section width.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 968
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According to the result of the regression divided by regression equation

where the x was 10.25 (the width value of base model), the modified formulas of
two types of vehicles corresponding to the section width are developed as follows:
⎧⎪TypeA : −0.00142b 2 + 0.0626b + 0.533
f =⎨ (9)
⎪⎩TypeD : −0.00114b + 0.0427b + 0.671
2

Where, b is the section width, m

Model Validation
As a conclusion, the operating speed prediction model was established as
follows:
⎧⎪128.46e −95.57κt′
Type A: v85 = f (b) ⋅ min ⎨ (10)
⎪⎩−2970it − 174.88it + 112.83
2

Where, f (b) = −0.00142b 2 + 0.0626b + 0.533

dit 2 − 134.041it it kt 2 + kt 2
κ t′ = 3
(1 − 134.041it it ) 2

⎧⎪86.225e −85.66κt′
Type D: v85 = f (b) ⋅ min ⎨ (11)
⎪⎩−1593it − 226.77it + 77.358
2

Where, f (b) = −0.00114b 2 + 0.0427b + 0.671

dit 2 − 250.772it it kt 2 + kt 2
κ t′ = 3
(1 − 250.772it it ) 2
It is necessary to validate weather the model is able to reflect the
characteristic of road alignment and predict the operating speed accurately. Field
data of three roads was used to validate the accuracy, as the follows show:
Shown as in figure 9 and 10, the points are the field data of road 1 (four-lane
roadways) and the line is the predictive result; Figure 11 and 12 show the predictive
result of road 2 (six-lane roadways); Figure 13 and 14 show the predictive result of
road 3 (eight-lane roadways):

Figure 9. Road 1 of type A.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 969
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Figure 10. Road 1 of type D.

Figure 11. Road 2 of type A. Figure 12. Road 2 of type D.

Figure 13. Road 3 of type A Figure 14. Road 3 of type D

As a result, except a few sections with the error in about 5km/h, all the
predictive results are satisfactory.
CONCLUSION
The research on operating speed did not conducted widely in China. A new
view was provided in this article that the operating speed can be predicted according
to the characteristic of road alignments. The compound curvature was calculated in
this article, which proved to have an obvious association with the operating speed.
Verification of the model indicated that the predicted operating speeds have
excellent agreement with the observed values. The maximum differences between
the observed and predicted speed values were about 20%. Whether such differences
are significant with respect to safety requires further research.
The study was limited to several types of highway alignments, which are
four-lane, six-lane and eight-lane, and the effect of the transverse section requires
further research. Thus, the operating speed model based on compound curvature
may be established to suit all cases of road alignments.
REFERENCES
J. Hayward, R. Lamm, A. Lyng (1985). Survey of current Geometric and Pavement
Design Practices. Europe Geometric Design International Road Federation
J. E. Leisch, J.P.Leisch (1977). New Concepts in Design Speed Application.
Transportation Research Record 631
Kai-sheng Liu (1992). On the Consistency of Highway Horizontal Alignment and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 970
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Method of Evaluation. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 5(3)

Hassan Y., Sayed T., Tabernero V. (2001). Establishing Practical Approach For
Design consistency Evaluation. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 4
China Ministry of Communications (CMOC) (2004). Guidelines for Safety Audit of
Highway JTG B05-2004
Ke Zhen, Jian Rong Fu-tian Ren (2003). Analysis of Relation Between Curve's
Radius and Steering Speed on Expressway, Journal of Highway and
Transportation Research and Development, 20(2)
Zhen-qi Tang, Zhen-ming Wu (2006). Research on United Calculation Methods for
3D Coordinate of Road Curve, Bulletin Of Surveying And Mapping, 12
Ishihara Shigeru (1982). Outline Of Differential Geometry, Northeastern University
of Technology Publishing House
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 971
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Evaluation Index and Methods of Highway Intersection Safety Maintenance

Shengxue ZHU 12, Jian LU 3

1
Lecturer, Faculty of Transportation Engineering, Huaiyin Institute of Technology,
Huai’an, China, 223003; Email:zhushengxue601@126.com
2
Doctoral Candidates，School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing,
China, 210096;Email: zhushengxue601@126.com
3
Professor , Center for Transportation Research, Shanghai Jiaotong University,
Shanghai, China，200240, Email: jianjohnlu@sina.com

ABSTRACT
This study established the highway intersection safety maintenance
evaluation system from the demand of highway safety maintenance management.
Focusing on the characteristics of intersection safety maintenance evaluation,
qualitative and quantitative data collecting methods are put forward and the relative
weight of each evaluation object is obtained by employing an optimization algorithm
of AHP. Finally, the rationality of the model is verified by the relativity between
experts’ scoring and calculated value and the intersection safety maintenance quality
is divided into four levels.

1. INTRODUCTION
Intersections are a key point of the highway network. Though intersections
occupy only a small part of the whole highway network, traffic accidents occur at a
greater frequency at intersections. The safety and management facilities in the
functional area of the intersections have a great influence on traffic safety. At present,
the main purpose of road maintenance home and abroad is to maintain the good state
of roads and the facilities in order to extend the roads’ service life （Ministry of
Communications of PRC,2002）， （Zhejiang Highway Bureau ，2009）, while the
demands of traffic safety are seldom taken into consideration. Therefore, it is
necessary to establish a reasonable technical evaluation system to quantitatively
evaluate the service level of intersection safety maintenance and management.
This study puts forward the structure of the intersection safety maintenance
evaluation model and employs an optimization algorithm of AHP to calibrate the
relative weight of each evaluation object. The defect of evaluating objects was
defined and the procedure to get the deduction value for each single defect was
worked out.

2. EVALUATION STRUCTURE OF INTERSECTION SAFETY

MAINTENANCE
The facilities affecting traffic safety inside the intersection functional areas
includes three main parts: subgrade and pavement, traffic safety facilities and traffic
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 972
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management facilities (Zhang D.Y., 2005). Each part is composed of a set of

subdivisions. The three parts are different in function and forms of damage, but
related to each other as a whole to promote the intersection’s safety. Evaluation of
intersection safety maintenance includes safety maintenance quality parameters
collection, evaluation index calculation and subsystem maintenance quality
evaluation. Analyzed from the perspective of function, it can be divided into three
modules as data collection, subsystem evaluation and system comprehensive
evaluation. The evaluation structure is shown in Figure 1.

Pavement evenness,skid-resistant subsystem evaluation

performance, shoulder defec,side of subgrade and
ditch defect and etc pavement

Defect , location and visibility of subsystem evaluation comprehensive

guardrail , warning pile, guiding of traffic safety evaluation of intersection
facility and etc facilities safety maintenance

subsystem evaluation
location , visibility of sign , of traffic management
marking , lightening and etc facilities

subsystem evaluation comprehensive

data collection module evaluation module
module

Figure 1. Evaluation structure of intersection safety maintenance.

3. INTERSECTION SAFETY MAINTENANCE EVALUATION DATA

COLLECTION
The purpose of data collection of intersection safety maintenance evaluation
is to obtain the safety maintenance parameters of each subdivision of the intersection.
To ensure the scientific soundness and rationality of the data collection, the study
divides the intersection safety maintenance parameters into two groups as subjective
parameters and objective parameters. Objective parameters mainly include pavement
friction coefficient, evenness and location of facilities, which can be obtained
automatically or artificially by employing various data collecting equipment (Florida
Department of Transportation, 2002). Subjective parameters mainly include defective
states of various facilities, which need data collectors to perform field evaluation.
During the data collection, consistency of data collection is the basic requirement.
Therefore, the study offers quantitative or qualitative standards for data collection of
various subjective parameters, and shows them in form of value or grade. Because of
the limited space, this study only lists the collecting standard of subjective
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 973
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parameters of intersection traffic marking which are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Data Collection Standard of Intersection Traffic Marking.

Scoring
Grade Scoring criterion Score
grade
Marking is in sound condition, reasonably
A located, visible and offers necessary and clear ≤85-100
information.
Marking is slightly damaged but without
B affecting the function, properly located, less ≤70-85
visible, and offers less proper information.
Marking is damaged, affecting the function, not
C properly located, barely visible, and offers too ≤50-70
much information.
Marking is too damaged to use, unreasonably
D located, not visible, and offers too difficult ≤0-50
information to comprehend.

Data collection contents of the intersection safety evaluation are shown in Table 2.

Table 2. Data Collection of Intersection Safety Maintenance Evaluation.

Name of
Number Data collection contents
subsystem
subgrade
Pavement evenness, Friction, defect state of shoulder, side
1 and
ditch and etc.
pavement
Safety Defect , location and visibility of guardrail, warning pile,
2
facilities guiding facility, deceleration facility and etc.
Management location , visibility of sign , marking , lightening and etc
3
facilities

4. EVALUATION MODEL OF INTERSECTION SAFETY MAINTENANCE

Intersection safety maintenance evaluation is a kind of subjective evaluation,
the purpose of which is to offer a basis for formulating intersection maintenance
countermeasures.
Evaluation model of intersection safety maintenance. According to the
index system, the intersection safety maintenance evaluation model includes two
layers as comprehensive evaluation model of intersection safety: maintenance system
and subsystem safety maintenance evaluation model. The comprehensive evaluation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 974
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model of intersection safety maintenance system is obtained by weighted scoring of

subgrade and pavementt, safety facility and management facility，which is as
follows:
S = ∑ ωi S i （1）

S i = ∑ ω ij S ij （2）

Where:
S = score value of intersection safety maintenance；
Si = the ith subsystem score value of intersection safety maintenance；
Sij = score value of the jth index of the ith subsystem；
ωi = the ith subsystem weight of intersection safety maintenance；
ωij = weight of the jth index of the ith subsystem；
i= the number of subsystem (i＝1,2,3)；
j= the index number of the ith subsystem.
Model parameters. Deciding the reasonable value of each weight in
formulas (1)-(2) is a very important part of the establishment of intersection safety
maintenance evaluation model. This study employs AHP to assign the weight of each
index (Xu S.B., 1988; Ma W.Y., 1994), which is shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Weight of the Intersection Safety Maintenance Evaluation Model.

subsystem Weight(ωi) index Weight（ωij)
Pavement 0.42
Subgrade and
0.24 Shoulder 0.30
pavement
Side ditch 0.28
Guardrail 0.18
Isolation belt 0.16
Warning pile 0.12
Safety facilities Guiding facility 0.16
0.48
Deceleration facility 0.12
Anti-dazzle
0.06
installations
Traffic safety island 0.20
Sign 0.45
Management Marking 0.25
0.28
facilities Lightening 0.18
Signal lamp 0.12
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 975
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Weight adjusting. At certain intersections, it is not necessary to locate all

of the traffic facilities. For example, it is not necessary to locate the signal light when
the traffic flow is small in the intersection, and there is no need to set guardrails
when the roadside is in good condition. As for these conditions, the present
evaluation measures will regard the missing item as full score, which will lead to a
relatively high score. Therefore, this study puts forward a method to distribute the
relative weighted value of the absent evaluation t objects proportionally to other
evaluation objects. This method can reflect more scientifically and rationally the
variation of each evaluation object’s weight under the circumstance of absent
intersection facilities. The equation is shown as follows:
ω ij
ω ij' = （3）
1 − ∑ ω ij

Where:
ωij' = after adjusting weight of the jth index of the ith subsystem；
ωij= before adjusting weight of the jth index of the ith subsystem；
∑ ωij =sum of weights of absent facilities of the ith subsystem.
Model Verification. In order to verify the rationality of the evaluation
model, the relativity analysis of the score calculated by the model and the score
estimated by the experts is shown in Figure 2.

100 y = 1.0037x
95 R2 = 0.7017
average of subjective score

90
85
80
75
70
65
60
60 70 80 90 100
Value calculated by model

Figure 2. Relativity analyses of value calculated by model and subjective score.

According to Figure 2, the general score calculated by the evaluation model

has a good relativity with the experts’ subjective score. The model is proved to be
reasonable.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 976
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Intersection Safety Maintenance Level Division. According to the

distribution of the score calculated by the model, this study recommends the safety
maintenance evaluation standard shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Intersection Safety Maintenance Evaluation Level.

Level A B C D
Safety maintenance scores 85～100 70～84 50～69 <50

Because when safety maintenance quality is poor, the state of damage of

intersection and its facilities will threaten the traffic safety greatly, so the safety
maintenance quality should always be above B level.

5. CONCLUSIONS
Intersection safety maintenance evaluation plays an important role in
supporting the formulation of intersection maintenance countermeasures and the
distribution of maintenance funds. This study, from the perspective of road traffic
maintenance demands, discusses the theory frame and model structure of intersection
safety maintenance quality evaluation and establishes a comprehensive evaluation
model of intersection safety maintenance quality which is composed of three parts:
subgrade and pavement, traffic safety facility and management facility. Then, we put
forward a level-division evaluation index system frame of intersection safety
maintenance quality and calibrate the evaluation model parameters according to field
survey. Because of the limited data, the model structure and parameter value are still
not satisfactory, and the model applicability still needs improvement, which will be
further improved in future research.

REFERENCES
Florida Department of Transportation (2002) “Flexible Pavement Condition Survey
Handbook .”Gainesville Florida State Material Office.
Ma, W.Y. (1994). “An Approach to Modifying Pairwise Comparison Matrices and
Two Criteria of Modificatory Effectiveness.” Systems Engineering -Theory
& Practice, 51-55.
Ministry of Communications of PRC (2002). “Expressway Maintenance Quality
Evaluation Standards (for Trial Implementation). ” China Communications
Press.
Xu, S.B. （1988）. “Theory of Analytic Hierarchy Process.” Tianjin University Press.
Zhang, D.Y. (2005). “Traffic safety management evaluation system.” China
Communications Press.
Zhejiang Highway Bureau (2009). “Technical specification for Highway
Maintenance ”China Communications Press.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 977
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The Simulated Replay and Automatic Analysis of Vessels Collision

Meilong LE1, Youfang HUANG1

1
The Logistics Research Center, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 200135,
China; PH: (21) 6893-6623; FAX: (21) 6893-5446; email: meilongle@hotmail.com;
yhuang@shmtu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
The simulated replay and automatic analysis of vessels in collision simulates the
vessel’s collision at sea from any time before the collision to the collision time based on
the vessel’s maneuvering mathematical model, the simplified Electronic Chart, Display
and Information System (ECDIS) and recorded real sailing data. Based on the recorded
data of the simulation and the relative laws and regulations, it can start an automatic
analysis of violations, failures and neglects.
After study on the hydrodynamic and response models, the response model is
selected to be used in the simulation due to its controllable and adjustable feature. The
factors or coefficients in the response model are got through recognition method from
vessel’s standard maneuvering tests.
The simplified ECDIS used in the paper is specially made for the simulation. It has
similar precision to standard ECDIS except for its not adopting ISO standard. The
reason for making a simplified one includes cost and speed. In order to accelerate
searching and display speed, different data organization methods are employed. The
display data has chain structure, and the searching data has matrix structure. Meanwhile,
the time-divided algorithm is employed for searching and computation since the
movement of the vessel is slow.
After the simulation, the automatic analysis can be carried out based on the recorded
data of the simulation. In order to achieve the automatic analysis, the expert knowledge
database is established. The analysis can tell the violation of the International Regulation
for Collision Avoidance at Sea 1972 and good seamanship.

INTRODUCTION
To give a fair judgment of vessels in collision is very important since it usually
involves huge loss of life and property. However, because the vessel sails at sea, no trace
leaves behind. When two vessels get involved in a collision, it is difficult for the judge
to get exact and detail information about the collision, and thus give out a fair judgment.
The simulated replay and automatic analysis of vessels collision can vividly replay the
vessel’s collision at sea from any time before the collision to the collision time based on
vessel’s maneuvering mathematical model, the simplified Electronic Chart, Display and
Information System (ECDIS) environment and the vessels’ recorded real sailing data.
Based on the recorded data of the simulation and the relative laws and regulations, it can
start an automatic analysis of violations, failures and neglects. Until now, there is no
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 978
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similar study found in the publications.

THE MANEUVERING MATHEMATICAL MODEL

There are two different types of maneuvering mathematical models that can be used.
One is the hydrodynamic model; the other is the response model. The former belongs to
the mechanic model, and the latter belongs to the control model. Since the control model
is controllable, adjustable and easy to match the real maneuverability of vessels involved,
it is chosen to use here. The basic equations used here is as follows
.
V + aVV V 2 + a δ 2V 2 + a rr r 2 = a nn n 2 + a nv nV
δδ
.. . .
T1T2 r + (T1 + T2 ) r + r + αr 3 = Kδ + KT3 δ
. .. .

where, V , V denotes vessel’s acceleration and velocity respectively; r , r , r denotes

.

vessel’s rotation acceleration rate, acceleration and velocity; δ , δ denotes rudder angle
and rudder angle change rate; n denotes rotation per minute;
aVV , a , a rr , a nn , a nv , T1 , T2 , α , K
δδ denotes vessel’s factors or constants which reflect
vessel’s maneuverability(Le, 1999).
The vessel’s nine factors can be recognized from the standard maneuvering tests,
which must be carried out by the vessel inspection authority when the vessel leaves the
shipyard and put into operation (Le, 2004).

THE SIMULATED ENVIRONMENT

Many companies make ECDIS today. It is fully informationized from the paper
chart based on S57 standard. Of course, it can be used in the simulation. The reason not
to use the standard one is the cost and speed, which doesn’t fit for this simulation. So,
we studied simplified ECDIS, which is precise enough for the simulation and can
achieve higher speed. Figure 1 is an example of simplified ECDIS, which covers the
whole Zhoushan Peninsula. When the chart is large enough, the more detail information
such as elevation, depth, reef, wreck, light buoys and light houses, etc. can be seen.
The guidance to make simplified ECDIS is fast display, searching and computation.
After input from the scanner, the data is reorganized into two categories. One is for
display; one is for searching and computation. Different organization methods are
employed in different uses. For example, for the depth used in the display, the chain
structure is used, and for the depth used in the searching, the block matrix structure is
used (Ni, 1995). By using different organization method, the display and searching
speed is highly increased. Since the movement of the vessel is slow, the time divided
algorithm is used. For example, one time slot is used for searching the depth; the other
time slot is used for distance computation between two vessels (Le, 1996). Since the
vessel cannot be condensed to a dot, the method for computation of the distance between
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 979
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two vessels, which is abstracted to two polygons, was studied. The present of
computation method of the distance between two polygons avoids the complex
combinatory judgments and greatly simplify the algorithm (Le, 2000).

Figure 1. Example of Simplified ECDIS ---- Zhoushan Peninsula.

THE SIMULATION OF COLLISION

Based on the vessel’s maneuvering mathematical model, simplified ECDIS and
recorded real sailing data, we can replay the vessels collision from any time before the
collision to the collision time.
Figure 2 is simulated trace from thirty minutes before the collision to the collision
time. Figure 3 is change curves of course, speed, distance, bearing, CPA (Closest Point
of Approaching), TCPA (Time to the Closest Point of Approaching). Figure 4 is the radar
images of the two involved ships on the way to the collision point. Figure 5 and 6 is
views from the two bridges of the two involved vessels on the way to the collision point
respectively.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 980
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Figure 2. The simulated trace of last 30 minutes before collision.

Figure 3. The change curves of main sailing data.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 981
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Figure 4. The radar images of both ships on the way to the collision point.

Figure 5. The view from the bridge of vessel A on the way to the collision point.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 982
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Figure 6. The view from the bridge of vessel B on the way to the collision point.

THE DATA RECORD AND AUTOMATIC ANALYSIS

During the simulation, various data can be recorded. The record contents and
interval can be adjusted. Then, the data can be used for manual and automatic analysis.
Figure 7 is one kind of automatic analysis output of maneuvering behaviors.

Figure 7. The example output of automatic analysis.

The automatic analysis bases on expert knowledge database. In the expert

knowledge database, the different solutions under different situations are stored (Le,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 983
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

1994). The situations are generally divided into Safety, Risk of Collision, Emergency
and Emergency Risk. Under Safety situation, there is no action adopted. In all other
three situations, the taking action should accord to the International Regulation of
Collision Avoidance at Sea 1972. Otherwise, it violates the law. Except for head-on
situation, which usually involves two-side action, all the other actions are usually
one-side action. When two vessels enter into Emergency Risk situation, the applied rule
is changed. Both sides should take coordinate actions, which is usually the least-damage
and good-seamanship action. Since it is almost impossible to enumerate all the
combinational situations, the danger factor is introduced. Every situation is evaluated by
the danger factor. An action which causes the increase of the danger factor is a wrong
action. The wrong action is categorized as
¾ Speed of vessel A exceed safety speed
¾ Speed of vessel B exceed safety speed
¾ Vessel A didn’t stop or reverse the propeller
¾ Vessel B didn’t stop or reverse the propeller
¾ Vessel A adopted a series of small alter-course action
¾ Vessel B adopted a series of small alter-course action
¾ Under Head-on situation, vessel A made a left turn (Figure 7)
¾ Under Head-on situation, vessel B made a left turn (Figure 7)
¾ Under Head-on situation, vessel A hesitated to make a right turn (Figure 7)
¾ Under Head-on situation, vessel B hesitated to make a right turn (Figure 7)
¾ Under Cross-head situation, vessel A made a left turn (Figure 8)
¾ Under Cross-head situation, vessel A hesitated to make a right turn (Figure
8)
¾ Under Cross-head situation, vessel B didn’t keep the course and speed so
lead to Emergency situation (Figure 8)
¾ Under Cross-head situation, vessel B made a left turn (Figure 9)
¾ Under Cross-head situation, vessel B hesitated to make a right turn (Figure
9)
¾ Under Cross-head situation, vessel A didn’t keep the course and speed so
lead to Emergency situation (Figure 9)
¾ Under Overtake situation, vessel B made a wrong action so lead to
Emergency situation
¾ Under Overtake situation, vessel A made an important
change-course-and-speed action which led to Emergency situation (Figure
10)
¾ Under Overtake situation, vessel A made a wrong action so led to
Emergency situation when vessel B didn’t make any important action
(Figure 11)
¾ Under Overtake situation, vessel B made an important
change-course-and-speed action so led to Emergency situation (Figure 11)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 984
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Figure 7. The two Head-on situations. Figure 8. The A-give-way situation.

Figure 9.The B-give-way situation. Figure 10. The B-overtake-A situation.

Figure 11. The A-overtake-B situation.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Specially thanks professor Xueyi Ni. Many ideas and algorithms presented here
owes to his contribution. Thank all the scientists and experts who contribute to
navigation simulation, automatic collision avoidance and maneuvering simulation. From
their work, the paper can be solidly established.

REFERENCES
Le, M. (1996) “The Algorithm of Searching of 3D Discrete Data of Chart.” Journal of
Shanghai Maritime University, 17(3), pp59-64
Le, M., Lu, H., Wang X. (1999). “A Mathematical Model of Ship Maneuvering
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 985
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Simulation.” Navigation of China, 44(1), pp75-84

Le, M., Wang, X., Lu H. (2000). “A Practical Discrete Method of Computation of the
Distance between Two Polygons.” Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University,
34(1), pp83-86
Le, M. (2004), “Chapter 2: Ship’s Maneuvering Mathematic Model”, Ship's
Maneuverability Forecasting and Maneuvering Simulation in Coastal and
Harbor Waters. Shanghai Jiao Tong University Press, Shanghai, China, 2.1-2.3
Ni, X., Le, M. (1995), “The Matrix Unit Array Structure of Plan Discrete Data.” Journal
of Shanghai Maritime University, Sept 1, pp33-39
Shi, Z., Le, M. (1994) “Models of Automatic Collision Prevention System.” Journal of
Shanghai Maritime University, 15(1), pp16-18
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 986
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Critical Issues and Countermeasures for Expressway Safety Improvement

Guangming DING 1 Zhongren WANG 2

1
College of Automobile Engineering, Chang'an University
2
Division of Traffic Operations, California Department of Transportation, 1120 N Street
MS-36, Sacramento, CA 95814, USA, zhongren_wang@dot.ca.gov

ABSTRACT
Safety improvement is an indispensable process for an expressway to maintain and
enhance its safety performance. Similar to an expressway safety audit project conducted
on several existing expressway facilities for the Jiangxi Provincial Communications
Department, the authors identified several critical safety issues in terms of facility design,
maintenance, and operations. Illustrated by pictures, these issues include: poor service
area design, neglected local access road improvement, improper roadside safety design,
inadequate/improper installation of signs and markings, insufficient
maintenance/construction zone protection, and inadequate right-of-way reservations. The
causes and possible consequences of these issues are pointed out, and tentative
countermeasures proposed. Due to the nation-wide significance of these issues, it is
suggested that a safety improvement management program be instituted across China, so
that potential safety issues like as the previously mentioned can be dealt with on a
consistent, constant, systematic, and quantitative basis.
INTRODUCTION
Expressways and safety performance. The expressway network of the People's
Republic of China, also known as the National Trunk Highway System (NTHS), is one of
the longest and newest in the world. The length of the network, which is 60,300 km at the
end of 2008, is second only to that of the United States. Expressways in China are
typically constructed to a design speed of 110 km/h with high-quality pavement, roadside
safety facilities, and no at-grade intersections. Compared with conventional highways
with lower design standards, expressway facilities are naturally expected to perform better
in terms of traffic safety. Indeed, in Europe, United States and other industrialized
countries, this is the case. On average, the number of collisions and fatalities for
expressways is about 30%~51%, of which 43~76% are conventional highways.
This is not the case in China, however, where expressway facilities recorded both
higher crash rates and higher crash severities. For example, 2005 saw a total of 417,355
accidents in China’s road system, with 91,062 dead (0.22 fatality/accident) and 439,220
injured (1.05 injury/accident). In the same year, China’s 41,005 km expressway system
recorded 18,168 accidents with 6,407 fatalities (0.35 fatality/accident), and 15,681 injured
(0.86 injured/accident). Clearly, expressways have a higher than average fatality rate, and
hence higher crash severity.
According to the Blue Book of Road Safety in China [RIOH 2006], fatalities as a
result of collisions on expressways have been increasing since 1994, the first year when
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 987
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collisions on expressways were recorded. In 1994, expressway fatalities accounted for

only 0.81% of the total road fatalities, but this percentage increased to 1.90% in 1998,
5.05% in 2003, and 7.14% in 2006. It is true that expressway mileage also increased by
leaps and bounds; nevertheless, the percentage of expressway fatalities is nothing
proportional to its mileage percentage in the entire road network. For example, in 1994
and 2006, the expressway mileage is only 0.14% and 2.35%, of the entire road network,
respectively.
One apparent reason for this situation is the short history of expressways in China.
It takes time for the motorists to learn to adapt to the high-speed driving environments on
expressways. It also takes time for vehicle manufactures to manufacture vehicles that are
suitable for high-speed operations. In the mean time, planers, designers, construction
personnel, and operators may need time to figure out better ways to develop, deliver, and
maintain expressway facilities. It takes time for all parties involved in expressway
development and utilization to learn their lessons from tragic expressway collisions,
develop safer facilities, and use the existing facilities in a safer way.
Why is safety improvement necessary? Safety improvement is an indispensable
process for an expressway facility to maintain and enhance its safety performance. This is
due primarily to the following two reasons: first, every facility is unique in terms of user
groups and driving environments and a ‘standard’ design might not fully reflect its
uniqueness. It is not uncommon to see collisions on a brand new facility, following the
latest design standards and specifications. Facilities should be tailored from time to time
to reflect such uniqueness. For example, when truck percentages are high, some standard
horizontal curve radii might have to be adjusted accordingly. Second, facility
shortcomings will not fully manifest themselves until loaded to near or over capacity.
When traffic volume is up, it is natural to expect more collisions, because traffic volume is
typically the most significant contributor to the number of collisions. Therefore, facility
safety improvement becomes a necessity with the increase of traffic volumes.
Facility improvement is an effective way of enhancing safety performance.
Studies indicated that among human being, vehicle and road environment the three major
contributing factors to traffic collision, road environment accounts for 30% or more of the
collisions [Treat et al. 1979]. Domestic scholarly research even showed that up to 70% of
collisions may be caused by facility deficiencies [Zheng and Guo 2002]. Improving
facility, so that it better satisfies driver expectation and vehicular characteristics, will
therefore improve safety.
Purpose of this paper. When conducting the Ruijin-Ganzhou Expressway (RGE)
safety audit project sponsored by the Jiangxi Provincial Communications Department
(JPCD) at the request of the World Bank [Li et al. 2006], three existing expressways
consisting of the Chang-Zhang, the Li-Wen, and the Tai-Jing, all in the Jiangxi Province,
were field reviewed. Collision records, especially those involving fatalities for 2006 and
2007 were also intensively studied. Coupled with experience in facility design,
construction, operation, and maintenance both in China and in the United States, the
authors identified several critical safety issues for improvement with nation-wide
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 988
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significance. It is the purpose of this paper to present the identified issues, point out the
consequences, and propose tentative solutions. It is also suggested that a safety
improvement program be instituted across China, so that safety improvement becomes a
regular and systematic procedure.
SAFETY IMPROVEMENT ISSUES AND COUNTERMEASURES
1) Poor service area design. Figure 1 is a bird’s eye view of an expressway service
area. On the east side, there is a gas station, a service building, and on- and off-ramps. On
the west side, there are only a few parking stalls, and on- and off-ramps. There are several
issues with such a layout design. First, the gas station is placed too close to the off-ramp
terminal, leaving little room for vehicle storage. When the gas station can not serve the
demand fast enough, it is natural that the queue will overspill onto the mainline. Indeed,
the field observation as shown in Figure 2, indicates that such queue overspill
phenomenon is a commonplace. Mainline shoulders, and sometimes the entire mainline,
become clogged due to the queue at the gas station. One might have already smelt the
hazard of rear-end and secondary collisions. It will be potentially safer to locate the gas
station further downstream from the off-ramp, leaving larger room for possible queue
storage. It may also be safer to locate the gas station upstream from the on-ramp, so that
motorists use other services first, before filling up the gas tanks and continuing their trips.

Figure 1. Sample service area design in Figure 2. Improper service area

China. entrance design.

Another shortcoming of such a layout design is the limited number of truck

parking stalls. In Figure 1, there are no more than eight parking stalls for trucks on the east
side. Moreover, these stalls are placed along an island, making them very hard for trucks
to use. Truck drivers have to parallel park in order to use some of the stalls. In California,
it is deemed a better to design separate parking areas for trucks and passenger cars, as
shown in Figure 3. This will help avoid sight blockage in mixed traffic, and will improve
traffic safety. In addition, trucks are designated to park at an angled position with access at
both ends, so trucks can pull-in and pull-out easily and safely.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 989
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In terms of emergency preparation and risk management, locating a gas station off
a busy expressway facility as shown in Figures 1 and 2, induces unnecessary operation
hazards. In case of gas station emergencies, expressway operations will have to be
disrupted, which is undesirable. Service area layout design is closely related to mainline
operations; the current layout design as shown in Figure 1 is poor.
In our field review, we also observed that some service area exits (ramp entrance,
as shown in Figure 4) do not have proper acceleration lanes. Trucks exiting a service area
need a long time to pick up speeds. It is necessary to treat service area exits the same way
as any other on-ramps. Accleration lanes of adequate length must be installed to reduce
the speed differential and hence read-end risk.
2) Neglected local access road improvement. Local access roads refer to the
conventional highways that connect expressway off-ramps. Local access roads serve
vehicles with similar characteristics to those using expressways. Therefore, these roads
should be designed to similar standards such as turning radii, and structural capacity, so
that expressway traffic will have no difficulty navigating through them.

Figure 3. Sample parking area design in Figure 4. No acceleration lane at service

California. area exit (ramp entrance).

Figure 5 depicts a schematic diagram of a typical transitional area between an

expressway off-ramp and a local access road. The authors observed little traffic control at
the at-grade intersection. At one location, the authors saw that access A and B are both
erroneously marked as two-way travel, creating a crossing conflict point at the bottom of
the off-ramp when vehicles use access A to get on expressway and use access B to get to
the local road. Time and again, it is also observed that big trucks had a hard time
negotiating curves at the at-grade intersections. To make matters worse, the land use along
the local road is not well managed. Restaurants and other businesses are opened right
alongside the local road, making it very expensive for future road widening.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 990
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To-and-from Local
expressway Road
Toll
Station
Access B

Access A
Channelization
Design

Local
Road
Figure 5. Neglected local access road improvement.
Local access roads are an integral part of the expressway system. Its safe and
efficient operations directly affect the user’s overall trip quality, especially for truck
traffic. Local access roads must be improved to accommodate truck traffic getting on and
off the expressways. One good practice in the United States is to install dedicated signage
along the expressways for truck traffic. Truck drivers will look for these signs to figure out
whether the local access roads will be able to accommodate their trucks, before they get
off the expressways. Local access road improvement is a safety and access management
issue. It takes concentrated efforts from all involved parties such as: toll authorities, the
Provincial Department of Transport, the trucking industry, and the general public, to
resolve these issues.
3) Improper roadside safety design. In China, roadside safety features such as
roadside barriers, median barriers, and bridge rails, are almost continuously installed on
expressways. China’s expressways are built on high embankments on level terrain to be
less interfered by local traffic. High embankment typically calls for barrier protection.
Expressway medians are typically as narrow as 1.5 to 3 m, making continuous median
barrier a necessity. Domestic research indicated that roadside-related collisions account
for about 8% of the total number of collisions, and 12% of total fatalities may be attributed
to these collisions [Kan et al. 2007]. Roadside safety improvements may greatly improve
expressway safety.
Our observation showed several significant issues with roadside safety facilities.
Barriers designed to the 1994 old design standard, [MOC 1994] are too weak to provide
sufficient protection for truck traffic. Of the 36 roadside collisions investigated, about
40% (14) were associated with breaking through the roadside barrier, and 8% (3)
traversed median and affected oncoming traffic [Li, et al. 2006]. Some provinces, such as
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 991
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Jiangxi, have also found that the bridge rail as shown in Figure 7 does not provide
adequate protection for errant trucks. The lower part of the barrier, the 20~30 cm high
concrete parapet, serves only to move the errant vehicles up. The W-beam is not strong
enough to hold the vehicles back. The 9 km long Yaohu Bridge had two trucks and two
buses run off the road, plunging into the lake underneath, causing tens of fatalities. After
replacing the roadside barrier with a stronger and taller Jersey barrier, road departure
types of accidents were drastically reduced. See the detailed report online at:
http://www.taixing.cn/show.php?contentid-71256.html. Apparently, strongly barriers are
necessary at locations with high embankments, near the water or at a cliff [MOC 2006].
Critical details in roadside safety design are neglected. For example, the necessary
transition between barriers with different rigidities, as shown in Figure 6, is left as a gap.
Hitting such an unshielded bridge rail often results in high severity damage to both vehicle
and occupants. Unshielded bridge rails are termed as coffin corners in the United States.
Shielding or not, makes a difference of life or death for the errant motorists. It makes sense
to install a transitional segment between barriers with different rigidities.
Finally, work zone protection was observed to be deficient and improper. As
shown in Figure 7, traffic cones are used to separate opposite sides of traffic. Traffic cones
are frequently observed to be used to separate construction workers with live traffic.
Understandably, traffic cones offer little or no protection, and errant vehicles may easily
break these cones apart and run across them. That is why countries such as the U.S.,
concrete barriers are always used to separate opposite traffic on freeways. For temporary
work such as maintenance, maintenance personnel and vehicles are typically protected by
shadow vehicles, or vehicle-mounted attenuators. Therefore, to improve roadside safety at
work zones, concrete barriers should be installed to shield workers or opposite traffic.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 992
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Figure 6. Transition of roadside barrier Figure 7. Concrete parapet + W-Beam

with different rigidity. barrier as bridge rail.

4) Inadequate/improper signs and markings. Signs and markings are basic

traffic control devices. They may directly or indirectly contribute to traffic collisions,
although it may be very difficult to quantify. Many issues have been observed in terms of
inadequate/improper signing and striping, the first being signing at expressway exits.
Expressway exits adopt either a tapered or parallel-lane design. For the parallel design as
shown in Figure 8, vehicles must complete the deceleration process in the parallel
auxiliary lane, because the exit curve is generally tight at the bottom of the auxiliary lane.
The parallel design requires that speed limit signs be installed along the auxiliary lane to
warn the motorists to decelerate. In Spain, a series of speed limit signs are installed to
provide motorists with staged warnings as shown in Figure 8. Motorists are warned to
reduce speeds from expressway speeds of 80, 60, and finally 40 km/h at the beginning of
the exit curve. In China, there is typically only one speed limit sign installed at the exit
gore. This is inadequate, especially when the exit curve is tight, or when the mainline is in
a downgrade segment. In fact, studies indicated that 41 (91%) out of the 45 US state
Department of Transportations that responded to a nationwide NCHRP survey prefer a
tapered design for exit ramps [Koepke 1993].
It is well-understood that the inside of a horizontal curve must be cleared of
obstructions. In a field review, it was found that an emergency parking sign, shown in
Figure 9, was installed at the inside of horizontal curves directing motorists to park at the
inside of the curve. This is not acceptable, and such signs should definitely be eliminated.
Field reviews also showed that the inside of some horizontal curves were used as
construction material storage ground at work zones, which should be strictly forbidden.
In Figure 10, tire marks are all over the pavement. These tire marks indicate that at
the decision point, motorists have not been given adequate guidance to figure out how to
position themselves in the correct lane. That is to say that the advance warning signage or
lane assignment signage must have not been effective. On a high-speed facility, one
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 993
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should not expect the last sign to be able to do the job. Staged warning and guidance must
be implemented upstream of any decision point. To avoid last minute lane switching as
indicated by Figure 10, it will be helpful to place more advance warning signs upstream.

Figure 8. Speed limit sign at parallel Figure 9. Emergency parking sign

exits. installed at the inside of a
horizontal curve.
Driving at daytime and nighttime is different. Designer and operators should
consider motorists’ special needs at night. Some important signs should be lit up at night,
especially those overhead signs requiring actions, such as exits. Overhead signs are
generally harder to read at night than roadside signs. Figure 11 shows one freeway exit
signage at dusk. One may notice the improvement of readability for the lit-up signs on the
right. At the vertical curve, when lighting is provided, driver’s sight distance at night may
be significantly improved. This is because at night time, driver’s eye height becomes the
height of the head lamp, if the surroundings are not lit up. Seldom will one find nighttime
lighting along expressways in China. For urban expressways with heavy nighttime traffic
volume, sign illumination should be considered when sign panel internal reflection alone
becomes insufficient.

Figure 10. Advance warning sign for Figure 11. Sign illumination at night.
major decision points.

Outdoor advertisements (ODA) are typical on expressway facilities. However,

billboards should be placed off the expressway right-of-way for traffic safety purposes.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 994
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On one of the expressways we reviewed, it is observed that some of the billboards, as

shown in Figure 12, have been installed directly above the expressway right-of-way. This
is not acceptable, because the regular maintenance of the billboards above live traffic may
endanger the traveling public. Sure enough, every billboard needs regular updates to make
any money. In California, the ODA management staff, who works for the California
Department of Transportation, is dedicated to processing ODA applications, and
monitoring and enforcing ODA regulations and policies. Billboards in violation of ODA
codes will be taken down, and the owner penalized. Similar practice could be
institutionalized in China to help standardize ODA administration to protect the welfare of
the traveling public.
Pavement marking legends are installed for the motorists to read, so the legends
should be painted on the pavement in the direction of travel, or the reading direction of the
motorists. This is true especially for long words, such as road names. When written in the
opposite reading direction as shown in Figure 13, motorists will not be able to read the
entire legend until they have traversed the legend. When a roadway is congested, and
when the important information is the first character, say in this case “small” in “small
vehicles”, it is very important to let motorists know the most important information for the
first sight. Similarly, when a certain lane is controlled for different use by time of day, the
time of day information should be read out clockwise, instead of counter-clockwise. For
example, 6:00am to 11:00pm should not be read out as 11:00pm to 6:00am. This may not
directly cause any collisions, but it may help with the effectiveness of pavement marking
legends.

Figure 12. Roadside billboard Figure 13. Pavement legend.

placement.

5) Insufficient maintenance/construction zone protection. Modern

expressways are typically equipped with intelligent transportation system field elements,
such as Closed Circuit Televisions (CCTV), and Changeable Message Signs (CMS). Field
elements call for routine and emergency maintenance. In expressway design, maintenance
access needs must be taken into consideration to ensure maintenance safety. For example,
Figure 14 depicts a maintenance vehicle pull-out in California for a CMS and its controller
cabinet. Such a pull-out design greatly facilitates maintenance operations. Maintenance
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 995
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vehicles and personnel can easily access the CMS via the freeway, and maintenance
operations will not call for any shoulder or lane closures. In fact, in the Los Angles
metropolitan area, dedicated collision investigation sites, which are similar to
maintenance vehicle pull-outs, are installed along freeways for accident investigation
purposes. These sites are very helpful in mitigating traffic interference when traffic
collisions are investigated.
Unfortunately, such pull-outs were typically not installed on China’s expressways.
Routine maintenance is done by closing expressway shoulders or lanes. According to the
Highway Capacity Manual [TRB 2000], for a 3-lane expressway, capacity loss due to
shoulders and outside lane closures can reach as much as 16% and 50%, respectively.
Shoulder parking is hazardous, too. In the analysis of collision records for the three
expressways in the Jiangxi Province, at least two fatalities were found to be the direct
results of collisions with parked vehicles on shoulder.

Figure 14. Sample maintenance vehicle Figure 15. Landscaping at narrow

pull-out in California. median.
A related topic is the plantings in expressway medians. Typically, expressway
medians are landscaped for aesthetics on most, if not all expressway facilities in China.
Landscaping calls for routine maintenance, such as watering, trimming or weed-pulling.
Such maintenance entails manual work alongside live high-speed traffic. Sometimes the
adjacent lane has to be closed. Figure 15 shows a group of maintenance workers working
at a narrow median. Needless to say, such operations may endanger the lives of the
maintenance workers, and also the safety of the driving public. If lane closure is involved,
there is the danger of secondary accidents. In all cone zones, three workers die every five
days nationally across the United States. At the California Department of Transportation,
167 workers have been killed in the last 86 years (since 1924), or about 2 workers per year
[Robin and Cook 1995]. The fatality rate for highway maintenance workers is higher than
that of police men.
In addition, median landscaping may cause sight distance problems for the
left-most lane at horizontal curves, especially when bridge piers and anti-glaring facilities
are present in the median. It is believed that for high speed and high volume roads,
landscaping at narrow medians should be replaced with Jersey-barriers. This would not
only prevent sight distance blockage, but it would also prevent cross-median type of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 996
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collisions. As described in Wang [2006], Jersey-barriers may be painted or inscribed with

graphics for aesthetics or impact mitigation purposes.
6) Inadequate right-of-way reservations. In China, most expressways
currently built are four-lane facilities, or two-lanes in each direction. With a high mix (say
30%) of truck traffic, especially at nighttime, passenger cars experience frequent blockage,
which can lead to frequent overtaking maneuvers. Impatient passenger cars may even
overtake on the right-hand-side, violating traffic laws. Speed differentials between
different types of vehicles and between loaded and unloaded trucks are very high,
resulting in high collision risks. Fast growing traffic volumes, for suburban facilities in
particular, make expressway widening and bottleneck improvement a necessity just a few
years after opening to traffic.
Many expressways across China are now under or have just completed widening
or reconstruction, such as Shen-Da, Hu-Ning, Guang-Shen expressways. Right-Of-Way
(ROW) acquisition proved to be more difficult than initial construction. Properties
adjacent to expressways gain value very fast. Relocation of developed businesses or
residences have to face strong owner oppositions. Sometimes, such opposition has
significantly delayed projects, if not derailed them. Future ROW acquisition will only
become more difficult, not to mention the ever escalating costs. Therefore, for important
expressway corridors, if widening is expected in the foreseeable future, ROW should be
secured as early as possible. It is a planning issue, and it is definitely also a safety issue.
In the United States, future right-of-way is reserved in the median, as shown in
Figure 3. This will save the trouble of relocating developed businesses and infrastructure
built along the existing expressways. Although it might be perceived as wasteful when the
reserve is not used, it should be proved to be more economical in the long run.

Figure 16. Two-lane expressway operations.

SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
In order to systematically manage the safety improvement issues discussed above,
a safety improvement management (decision-support) system is in order. In a safety
management system, facilities are monitored on a regular basis, and manifested safety
issues are identified and evaluated, so that appropriate treatment strategies can be
developed and implemented. In the mean time, the performance of the implemented
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 997
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treatments can be monitored and evaluated to start another safety improvement cycle. It is
only through these types of cycles, that the safety issues will be dealt with on a systematic
basis. Without such a system, safety improvements will only stop at the qualitative level.
Perceived safety issues may mislead the safety improvement activities, and true safety
issues may be neglected. For quantitative safety management, a safety management
system is indispensable.
The safety improvement issues discussed above are sometimes difficult to correct
just using traffic engineering treatments, such as installing signs. Indeed, a high
percentage of operation issues may trace back to facility design and call for infrastructure
improvement. Therefore, facility design must cater to the needs of safe operations. A
successful design is not judged by how well the plans and specifications are prepared, but
instead, by how safe and efficient the facility will operate. On the other hand, operation
experiences, such as collision records, provide feedback for better facility design. A safety
management system represents an established feedback loop between facility design and
operations. It coordinates the relationship between facility design and operations, and it
helps improve the quality of design through a systematic way of learning from operations
experiences.
In the United States and many European countries, safety improvement is a
government-mandated process for highway operations and improvement. In the United
States, the program is called the Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)
administered by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) with dedicated annual
funding commitment. Safety improvement is one of the top priorities for the Departments
of transportation across the US. As China’s expressway network matures, safety
management and performance evaluation will be the natural next step. Dedicated
programs, such as HSIP, should be instituted across China.
SUMMARY
In this paper, several types of expressway facility safety improvement needs were
identified, and countermeasures suggested. Illustrated by pictures, these issues include
poor service area design, neglected local access road improvement, improper roadside
safety design, inadequate/improper signs and markings, insufficient maintenance and
construction zone protection, and inadequate right-of-way reservations. Most of these
issues are easily found on expressways across China. Although most of these issues can
only be qualitatively described as ‘perceived’ safety risks, some of them such as the
improper roadside safety design have been found to be quantitatively related to
roadside-related collision records. More research is encouraged to quantify these safety
issues. Due to the nationwide prevalence of these issues, it is suggested that a safety
management system be instituted across China so that facility safety performance can be
systematically monitored, evaluated, and dealt with on a regular and mandated basis.
Safety management systems are a necessary step towards quantitative management of
safety, and also towards effective disbursement of limited safety improvement resources.
REFERENCES
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Kan, W., Li, C., and Tang, Y. (2007). “Study on roadside safety strategies.” Highway, No.
3. (in Chinese)
Koepke, F. J. (1993). “Ramp exit/entrance design--taper versus parallel and critical
dimensions”, J. of Transportation Research Record 1385, Transportation
Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., p. 126-132
Li, S., Wang, Z., Jiang, Y., Lei, M. and Ding, G. (2006). Rui(Jin)-Gan(Zhou) Expressway
Safety Audit. Jiangxi Institute of Transportation Science Research, Nanchang,
Jiangxi Province, China. (in Chinese)
MOC (1994). Guidelines for Design and Construction of Highway Safety Facilities. The
Ministry of Communications, JTG 074-94, Beijing, China. (in Chinese)
MOC (2006). Guidelines for Design of Highway Safety Facilities. The Ministry of
Communications, JTG/T D81-2006, Beijing, China. (in Chinese)
RIOH (2006). The Blue Book or Road Safety in China 2006, Ed. He, Y., People’s
Transportation Press, Research Institute of Highway, Beijing. (in Chinese)
TRB (2000). Highway Capacity Manual. Transportation Research Board, National
Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Robin, J. and Cook, S. (1995). Caltrans stands down for safety. TR News 178, May-June.
Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., pp. 2-6.
Treat, J.R, Tumbas, N.S., McDonald, S.T., Shinar, D., Hume, R.D.,Mayer, R.E, Stansifer,
R.L., and Castellan, N.J. (1979). Tri-Level study of the causes of traffic accidents:
Final Report-Executive Summary. Bloomington, In: Institute for Research in
Public Safety. [Report No. DOT-HS-034-3-535-79-TAC (S)].
Wang, Z. (2006). “Roadside Safety Design: Lessons Learned from the California
Experience.” Shanghai Gonglu, No. 4, pp. 8-13. (in Chinese)
Zheng A.and Guo,J. (2002). “Effects of road conditions on traffic safety should be taken
seriously.” J.of Wuhan University of Science and Technology,25(1): 31-34.(in
Chinese)
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Applying Safety Analyst (SA) on Highway Safety Improvement - A Case Study on

I-275 Corridor

Jian John LU 1 and Hongyun CHEN 2

1
Professor, P.E., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave. ENB118, Tampa, FL, 33620; PH: (813) 9745817;
FAX: (813) 974-2957; Email: lu@eng.usf.edu
2
Ph.D. Candidate, Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR), University of
South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave. CUT 100, Tampa, FL, 33620; PH (813) 9747882;
FAX (813)974-5168; Email: helenviki-sky@hotmail.com

ABSTRACT
Safety Analyst (SA) is a newly released software package that is designed to help
state-wide or local agencies with a strong improvement of highway safety management
on a basis of cost-effectiveness procedures. This study aims to help the potential SA
users to better understand the methodologies, implementation procedures, and benefits
of SA by four analytical tools. The case study was conducted at a 14.8 mile long
corridor on Interstate 275 (I-275) in Tampa with the crash data in 2007. The network
screening tool, diagnosis and countermeasure tool, and economical appraisal tool, are
performance at the three highest-rank sites for potential safety improvements by SA. For
practical purpose, this analysis could be used as an initial implementation before the
widely application of the software.
INTRODUCTION
Safety Analyst (SA) is a newly released software package that is developed by
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and participating state and local agencies
(Schofield 2009). The software is designed to help state-wide or local agencies with a
strong improvement of highway safety management on a basis of cost-effectiveness
procedures. One of the advantages of SA for most highway agencies is that it can
automate the analysis procedures instead of manually applying the safety studies, which
would enable users have the greatest potential for safety benefits by saving significant
cost such as, the initial development, long-term support, maintenance and enhancements
of safety program
The software integrates the typical highway safety management processes into an
applicable package (Krammes 2009). The methodologies and procedures used in SA are
parts of the procedures in the forthcoming Highway Safety Manual (HSM). The
incorporation of HSM safety approaches will guide the particular users, engineers, or
decision makers an appropriate computerized analytical way to conduct relevant
highway safety management. The development of the software package is cooperated by
FHWA, twenty-four State Highway Agencies and three Local Agencies, as shown in
Figure 1 and Table 1. Before the software can be used in the real data analysis, a major
concern has been raised that the potential implementations of SA in the state-wide or
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1000
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local agencies. The research team in University of South Florida (USF) (Lu et al., 2009)
has recently conducted a study on relevant to the implementation of Safety Analyst in
Florida State. Twenty-three states were invited to participate in the survey on the
application of SA in their stages. The purpose of conducting the survey includes two
parts:
to determine how the different states of the cooperative research team have, are,
or will customize and implement the SA;
to obtain lessons and recommendations when other organizations are doing the
study or project with SA;

Figure 1. Participant States for Safety Analyst (Source: www.safetyanalyst.org).

The survey was conducted during July 21st to July 31st, 2008. Nineteen of them
participated in the survey including Florida during the survey period. The results are
listed in Table 1 below. Nine states mentioned that Florida is ahead of them on the
software and they did, do, and will not have any plan to deploy the SA in the nearby
future; four states described that they have considered applying it in the next fiscal year
while the detailed judgments have not been made yet. Most states mentioned that they
might consider the further implementation of SA in their highway safety programs;
however, due to lack of required data, such as roadway segment data, traffic information
data, crash data, etc al., further discussion needed for the virtual application of the
software package into real analysis.
Bases on the survey Florida might be the first State which develops SA
applications by using existing databases. As a result, the purpose of this study is to help
the potential SA users to better understand the methodologies, implementation
procedures, and benefits of SA. In order to achieve the goal, the research team in USF
applied the software on the particular freeway segment as a real example to guide the
traffic engineers, researchers or decision-makers conducting the highway safety
improvements.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1001
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Table 1. Survey Result on Safety Analyst (SA) from Participating States.

No State Connect Plan Note
1 Florida In the stage of connecting the original data into SA;

2 Wisconsin In the stage of connecting the original data into SA;

3 Michigan In the stage of connecting the original data into SA;

4 Vermont In the stage of connecting the original data into SA;

5 North Carolina In the stage of connecting the required data into SA;

6 Ohio In the stage of revising new codes and formats data to SA;

7 Nevada In the stage of considering the application in the state;

8 Georgia In the stage of considering the application in the state;

9 Maryland In the stage of Evaluation ;

10 New York In the stage of Evaluation;

11 Colorado In the stage of Evaluation;

12 Delaware ⌧ SA in test stage in FHWA, not considered to use it yet;

13 Iowa ⌧ SA in test stage in FHWA, not considered to use it yet;

14 California ⌧ SA in test stage in FHWA, not considered to use it yet;

15 Indiana ⌧ SA in test stage in FHWA, not considered to use it yet;

16 Kansas ⌧ SA in test stage in FHWA, not considered to use it yet;

17 Kentucky ⌧ SA in test stage in FHWA, not considered to use it yet;

18 Washington ⌧ SA in test stage in FHWA, not considered to use it yet;

19 Massachusetts ⌧ SA in test stage in FHWA, not considered to use it yet;

20 Virginia ? Not sure yet;

21 Illinois ? Not sure yet;

22 Louisiana ? Not sure yet;

23 North Jersey ? Not sure yet;

24 Minnesota ? Not sure yet;

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1002
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Interstate 275 (I-275) in Florida serves the western portions of the Tampa-St.
Petersburg area, including downtown Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Bradenton. It connects
with two major interstate highways, Interstate 75 (I-75) to North Florida and Interstate 4
(I-4) to East Florida. The proportion from downtown Tampa to the north end of I-275, is
a critical segment like other Metropolitan areas (FDOT 2009, WSDOT 2008, OCTA
2009), which needed to be addressed for potential safety improvements. Following
sections will discuss the methodologies used in SA and the detailed case study on the
selected I-275 corridor. Following sections will discuss the methodologies used in SA
and the detailed case study on the selected I-275 corridor.
SAFETY ANALYST TOOL
SA is a set of computerized analytical tools to aid state and local highway
agencies in highway safety management. The main purpose of Safety Analyst is to
improve a highway agency's system-wide programming of site-specific safety
improvements (ITT 20081). Normally a typical safety improvement program contains
following consequent procedures (see Figure 2):
Step 1 - Identification of sites with potential for safety improvement;
Step 2 - Diagnosis of the nature of safety problems at specific sites;
Step 3 - Selection of countermeasures at specific sites;
Step 4 - Economic appraisal for sites and countermeasures under consideration
Step 5: Priority rankings of improvement projects;
Step 6 - Safety effectiveness evaluation of implemented countermeasures;

Network Screening Step 1

Diagnosis and Countermeasure Step 2 &3

Economical Appraisal and Priority Ranking

Step 4 &5

Countermeasure Evaluation Step 6

Figure 2. Four Tools in SA to accomplish Six Typical Safety Improvement Steps.

SA has four toolkits that can deal with the six steps, as shown in Figure 2. The
network screening tool will help users identify potential sites for the safety
improvements with a high level of specific crash or collision types. The diagnosis and
countermeasure selection toll focus identify the nature of problems at specific sites and
the selection of appropriate countermeasures to mitigate the crash patterns identified by
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the diagnosis tool. The economic appraisal toll performs the economic appraisals of
proposed countermeasures under FHWA evaluations capability. The evaluation tool is
the final step which enables the potential users to conduct before and after analysis of
particular safety improvement projects. Details methodologies are described for each
analysis tool respectively.
Network Screening Tool
High-crash locations are typically identified for potential safety improvements by
observed crash frequency, crash rate or specific crash index.SA software implements the
new approach for network screening application to identify the high-crash location,
which is known as the potential for safety improvement (PSI) index (ITT 20082). PSI is
a measurement of the excess crash frequency, above the expected crash frequency, that
might be reduced if a safety improvement were implemented. The sites will be ranked
by PSI value to identify the high-crash location. This method uses the potential for crash
reduction as the index instead of the traditional measurement as the highest average
crash frequency or crash rate.
In SA, A 0.1 mile in length of roadway subsection will be applied for the road
section of varying length except the last one. Empirical Bayes (EB) statistical method is
estimated of the expected crash frequency for each site. Then sites will be ranked based
on the PSI. Users can choose the sites for safety improvements by ranks.
Diagnosis and Countermeasure Tool
One of the advantage of using SA is the automatically investigating the crash
causations and crash patterns while these procedures were manually conducted by
highway agencies. SA assists the users with the specific crash patterns that are present
and provide the practical countermeasures according to each crash pattern, such as rear-
end crash, side-swipe crash, or angle crash; however, the selection of countermeasures
for implementation is decided by the user (ITT 20083). The outputs from SA will contain
lists of collision patterns, initial diagnoses and potential countermeasures to be
considered in the field. The logic to identify appropriate countermeasures is based on the
site conditions and previous experience of implemented countermeasures.
Economical Appraisal and Priority Ranking Tool
SA includes the costs and safety benefit of each countermeasure. Users could
select the countermeasures from the diagnosis and countermeasure procedure or add the
specific countermeasure to the sites. Three economic criteria can be selected to perform
the implemented countermeasure or combinations of countermeasures (ITT 20084):
Cost-effectiveness;
Benefit-cost ratio;
Net benefits;
The cost-effectiveness criterion is generally expressed in terms of dollars spent per
accident reduced. It can be expressed as:
Cost-effectiveness = Total Cost/Expected Number of Accidents Reduced (1)
This approach has the advantage of simplicity and has been more widely accepted than
other approaches.
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The second approach of economic evaluation is the benefit-cost ratio. Unlike the
first approach, benefit-cost ratio considers the crash severity because crash costs
estimates differ by crash severity level. It is expressed as:
B/C Ratio = Benefit/Cost (2)
While B is the present value of future safety benefits and C is a project to the
construction costs.
The third approach to economic appraisal is by net benefits. It is calculated by
benefits minus the costs. For this approach, the most desirable improvements are those
with the highest net benefit. It can be expressed as:
Net Benefit = Benefit –Costs (3)
Priority ranking will be given by the selected economic criteria discussed above.
Countermeasure Evaluation Tool
After selected the implemented countermeasure, the evaluation tool can conduct
before/after analysis by applying the EB approach (ITT 20085). Traffic information from
existing highway records together with the same regression relationships will be used in
the network screening tool. This should have a great help and benefit to highway
agencies to better estimate of the effectiveness of specific countermeasures to apply in
the future improvements.
CASE STUDY
Site Description and Data Collection
The selected section is 14.8 mile from Downtown Tampa (International Airport)
to North End of I-275 (Figure 3). The whole corridor was cut into 0.1 mile section per
subsection in SA for network screening procedure.
Site Analysis Results
The expected accident frequency is used for potential for safety improvement as
a ranking strategy in the network screening procedure. Table 2 lists the first five highest
ranking sites by roadway ID and site mileposts. Three highest ranking sites are picked to
conduct further analysis.
First Rank Site
Table 3 identifies the crash, patterns including sideswipe and other
crashes, at the first highest ranking section between on I-275 Corridor in with a
large curvature (see
Figure 4). For this section, sideswipe crash pattern was selected for the further
analysis by the site investigation.
The diagnosis of sideswipe crash pattern and recommended countermeasures are
listed in Table 4. While closely examining the contributing factors, horizontal curves
would be the attribute to this site. Selected countermeasures focus on mitigating the
curve impacts to traffics, which include but not limit to flattening both vertical and
horizontal curves, widening lanes through curves, installing curve warning signs or
improving sight distance. The cost-effectiveness criterion is selected to evaluate the
countermeasure for this site. Table 5 lists the rank results of the proposed
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countermeasures. For this typical subsection, install curve warning signs has the highest
priority rank among other countermeasures.

Study
Area

Figure 3. Study Area on I-275.

Table 2. Site Rank by Highest Potential for Safety Improvement.

Location with Highest Potential
Site Rank
Route ID for Safety Improvement
Type Subtype Start Location End Location
10190000 Urban Segment Multilane divided 6.72 6.73 1
10190000 Urban Segment Multilane divided 6.31 6.32 2
10190000 Urban Segment Multilane divided 1.95 1.96 3
10190000 Urban Segment Multilane divided 5.0 5.1 4
10190000 Urban Segment Multilane divided 5.62 5.63 5

Table 3. Accident Pattern Identification for Site 1.

Accident Type and Observed Limiting Probability Observed
Manner of Collision Proportion (%) Proportion (%) Proportion Exceeds Limiting
Proportion
Rear-end 20.0 66.3 0.12
Sideswipe 40.0 6.9 0.90
Other 40.0 5.9 0.92
Total 100
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Figure 4. First Highest Rank Subsection at I-275 Corridor.

Table 4. Potential Diagnosis and Recommended Countermeasures.

Diagnosis Attribute Recommended CM

Unexpected Curvature Flatten Crest Vertical Curve;

Flatten Horizontal Curve;
Install Curve Warning Signs;
Poor Path Definition Horizontal curve
Widen Lane through Curve;
Install Transverse Pavement Markings;
Speeds Too High Improve Sight Distance;
Road Surface Condition Wet Weather None

Table 5. Economic Appraisal and Priority Ranking of Cost-Effectiveness.

Proposed Countermeasure Construction Cost Cost Effectiveness Rank
Install Curve Warning Signs $500 $159 1
Improve Sight Distance $2,000 $1,160 2
Widen Lane through Curve $25,000 $4,749 3
Install transverse pavement markings $4,000 $5,475 4
Flatten crest vertical curve $1,100,000 $208,937 5
Flatten horizontal curve $1,100,000 $208,937 5

Second Rank Site

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Figure 5 shows the second highest ranking section which locates between on-
ramp and off-ramp of N. Ashley Dr. on I-275 Corridor. This 0.1 mile subsection is
different from the first rank site. It is the specific segment around the interchange areas.

Figure 5. Second Highest Rank Subsection on I-275 Corridor between On-Off

Ramps.

Table 6 identifies the crash patterns including rear-end crash and sideswipe
crashes. For this section, rear-end crash pattern was selected for the further analysis by
the site investigation.
The diagnosis of rear-end crash pattern and recommended countermeasures are
listed in Table 7. While closely examining the contributing factors, the presence of
accesses would be the attribute to this site. Selected countermeasures focus on mitigating
the impacts of the on-ramp and off-ramp for both directions. The proposed
countermeasures include improving the sight distance of access, improving visibility of
access, improving highway lighting conditions and installing the transverse pavements.
The Benefit/Cost ratio criterion is selected to evaluate the countermeasure for this site.
Table 8 lists the rank results of the proposed countermeasures. For this typical
subsection, improving lighting condition and visibility of access rank the first and
second among the four proposed countermeasures. It is obviously that the result would
help the safety agencies saving money and time by conduct safety improvements on
specific sites.

Table 6. Accident Pattern Identification for Site 2.

Accident Type and Observed Limiting Probability Observed
Manner of Collision Proportion (%) Proportion (%) Proportion Exceeds
Limiting Proportion
Rear-end 85.7 66.3 0.78
Sideswipe 14.3 6.9 0.60
Total 100
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Table 7. Potential Diagnosis and Recommended Countermeasures.

Diagnosis Attribute Recommended CM
Accesses/Driveways Accesses Improve Visibility of Access;
Improve Sight Distance to Access;
Provide Highway Lighting;
Install Transverse Pavement
Markings;
Road Surface Condition Wet Weather None

Table 8. Economic Appraisal and Priority Ranking of Benefit Cost Ratio.

Construction Cost Benefit
Proposed Countermeasure Rank
Cost Effectiveness Cost Ratio
Provide highway lighting $320 $25 1872.61 1
Improve Visibility of Access $5,000 $797 59.61 2
Install transverse pavement markings $4,000 $2,742 17.33 3
Improve Sight Distance to Access $2,000 $1,160 13.41 4

Third Rank Site

Figure 6 shows the second highest ranking section which locates between on-
ramp and off-ramp of SR 60 on I-275 Corridor. It is similar to the second highest rank
site, where is near the interchange area.

Figure 6. Third Highest Rank Subsection on I-275 Corridor between On-Off

Ramps.
Error! Not a valid bookmark self-reference. identifies the crash patterns
including rear-end crash and collision with other project. In order to compare the
potential countermeasures with previous site, rear-end crash pattern was selected
manually for the further analysis by the site investigation.
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The diagnosis of rear-end crash pattern and recommended countermeasures are

listed in
Table 10. While closely examining the contributing factors, the presence of
accesses would be the attribute to this site, which is similar to the previous site. Selected
countermeasures focus on mitigating the impacts of the on-ramp and off-ramp for both
directions.
Table 11 lists the rank results of the proposed countermeasures. For this typical
subsection, improving lighting condition and sight distance to access rank the first and
second among the four proposed countermeasures. While comparing the result with the
previous sites, the rank orders differ from each one except the first. The results indicate
that even under similar traffic and geometric conditions, each site should be reviewed
separately while implementing the safety improvement program while it was hard to
achieve for practical issues. SA would benefit the highway agencies with the maximal
potential improvement for each site with limited cost.

Table 9. Accident Pattern Identification for Site 3.

Accident Type and Manner Observed Limiting Probability Observed Proportion
of Collision Proportion (%) Proportion (%) Exceeds Limiting Proportion
Collision with other object 25 8.9 0.79
Rear-end 75 66.3 0.66
Total 100

Table 10. Potential Diagnosis and Recommended Countermeasures.

Diagnosis
Accesses/Driveways
Road Surface Condition
Attribute Recommended CM
Improve Sight Distance to Access;
Improve Visibility of Access;
Provide Highway Lighting;
Flatten Horizontal Curve;
Wet Weather None

Table 11. Economic Appraisal and Priority Ranking of Net Benefit.

Construction Cost Net
Proposed Countermeasure Rank
Cost Effectiveness Benefit
Provide highway lighting $400 $60 $261.092 1
Improve Sight Distance to Access $2,000 $1,108 $211,805 2
Improve Visibility of Access $5,000 $1,520 $209.532 3
Flatten Horizontal Curve $1,100,000 $199.572 $-882.09 4

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

SA is a newly released software package that is developed by Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA) and participating state and local agencies. SA contains four
major tools, network screening tool, diagnosis and countermeasure tool, economic
appraisal tool and evaluation tool. The software could help the state highway agencies
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make better decisions about where to invest the limited funds available for highway
safety improvement.
The purpose of this study is to help the potential SA users to better understand
the methodologies, implementation procedures, and benefits of SA. In order to achieve
the goal, the research team in USF applied the software on the particular freeway
segment as a real example to guide the traffic engineers, researchers or decision-makers
conducting the highway safety improvements. The selected section is 14.8 mile from
Downtown Tampa (International Airport) to North End of I-275. Three highest ranking
sites are picked to conduct further analysis. It is obviously that the result would help the
safety agencies saving money and time by conduct safety improvements on specific
sites. The results indicate SA would benefit the highway agencies with the maximal
potential improvement for each site with limited cost. The author notices that this study
is only the initial implementation of the software. Further application of the software
would recommend such as evaluating the countermeasures.
REFERENCE
Florida Department of Transportation, District Six, “Final 95 Express Midyear Report:
Project Status for Urban Partnership Agreement”, October 2009.
Highway Data Collection/Quality Control Section, Transportation Statistics Office, and
Florida Department of Transportation, “Transportation Statistics RCI Field
Handbook”, 2007.
ITT Corporation, “Safety Analyst Data Management Tool Manual”, FHWA Office of
Safety Research and Development, 2008.
ITT Corporation, “Safety Analyst White Paper for Module 1-Network Screening”,
FHWA Office of Safety Research and Development, 2008.
ITT Corporation, “Safety Analyst White Paper for Module 2-Diagnosis and
Countermeasure Selection”, FHWA Office of Safety Research and
Development, 2008.
ITT Corporation, “Safety Analyst White Paper for Module 3-Economic Appraisal and
Priority Ranking”, FHWA Office of Safety Research and Development, 2008.
ITT Corporation, “Safety Analyst White Paper for Module 4-Evaluation”, FHWA Office
of Safety Research and Development, 2008.
Krammes A. R., “SafetyAnalyst”, U.S Department of Transportation, Federal Highway
Administration, No. FHWA-HRT-06-124. 2009. www.safetyanalst.org
Lu L., Lu J. J., Lin P.S., Wang Z., and Chen H., “Development of an Interface between
FDOT’S Crash Analysis Reporting System and the Safety Analyst”, Final Project
Report, Florida Department of Transportation, July 2009.
Orange County Transportation Authority, “SR-91 Express Lanes in Orange County,
California”, http://www.91expresslanes.com
Schofield V., “New AASHTO Ware Product Safety AnalystTM”, American Association of
State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), 2009.
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Washington State Department of Transportation, “HOT Lanes: Draft Pilot Project

Analysis”, November 2003. http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/NR/rdonlyres/794FDB83-
056F-4B4A-A3C6-D16B8AD8E1A4/0/HOTlanes_Rep2_11_13_03.pdf
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1012
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What Can Be Learned From US Road Safety Practice: A Research Perspective

Helai HUANG1, and Ming MA2

1
Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of
Central Florida, Engineering Building II, 301A, Orlando, Florida 32816, United
States, PH: (407) 927 5693, email: huanghelai@alumni.nus.edu.sg
2
Engineering Research Center for Transportation Safety of Ministry of Education,
Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China

ABSTRACT
Despite a higher level of motorization, the roads in the US are significantly safer
than those in China. Such a difference partially results from much advanced road safety
research and their scientific implementations of the research results. In the past decade, a
series of nationwide strategies have been developed to improve the road safety in the US.
There are many invaluable experiences in the process of addressing road safety that may
be useful for China to formulate its own strategies in road safety investment and
research. Following a presentation on the state of the art and the practice of US road
safety, this study attempts to reveal some key strategic issues to improve safety from a
perspective of research.

INTRODUCTION
Known as “a nation on wheels,” the US is highly motorized. Due to the high
level of motorization, safety on the roads has been a continuous public concern.
Although the US road safety is currently far from a satisfactory level, particularly when
compared to other developed countries, its roads, as reflected by various statistics, are
significantly safer than those in China. Moreover, China is rapidly developing its road
network system to a size comparable to the US. Hence, it is advisable to refer to the US
experiences in the process of addressing road safety, which may be useful for China to
formulate its own strategies in road safety investment and research. This study attempts
to reveal some key strategic issues from US practice to improve safety from a
perspective of research. The paper consists of two major parts; the first part introduces
US practices, specifically including road safety facts, the Strategic Highway Safety Plan
(SHSP) with a 4E approach, and a list of supportive guides, tools, and other programs;
the second part highlights the experiences learned from the US practice, including a
conceptual model for safety mitigation and several key technical issues in safety
countermeasure implementation.

AN OVERVIEW OF ROAD SAFETY FACTS IN THE US

An overview of some basic US road traffic-related statistics is presented in
Figure 1. As can be seen from the data, the percentage of licensed drivers remained at
around 68% in the total resident population from 1998 to 2007. The ratio of registered
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vehicles to population is 0.8 on average with a continuously increasing trend. Most

importantly, while the number of drivers and vehicles vary slightly, the total vehicle
miles traveled (VMT) on roads has increased drastically. Unsurprisingly, the enormous
road traffic volume poses big challenges for maintaining a safe road environment.

Resident
350 3100
population
300 3000

Licenced 250 2900

Miles in Billion
Number in Million

drivers
200 2800
Registered 150 2700
vehicles
100 2600
Vehicle
miles 50 2500
traveled
0 2400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Resident population 270.2 272.7 282.2 285 287.7 290.2 292.9 295.6 298.4 301.3
Licenced drivers 184.9 187.2 190.6 191.3 194.6 196.2 198.9 200.5 202.8 205.7
Registered vehicles 208.1 212.7 217 221.2 225.7 230.6 237.9 245.6 251.4 255.7
Vehicle miles traveled 2632 2691 2747 2797 2856 2890 2965 2989 3014 3030

Figure 1. Road Traffic Facts in the US (1998-2007) (Source: FARS).

Up to the end of 1970s, the US had the safest traffic in the world, whether
measured by deaths per registered vehicle or per VMT. However, by 2002, in terms of
deaths per registered vehicle, the US had dropped from first place to sixteenth place in
the world (Evans, 2004). To cope with the challenges in road safety, considerable efforts
have been made to improve safety, especially in the past decade.

Fatal crashes Fatalities Fatality rate

Number of Crashes / Fatalities

Fatality rate per 100m VMT

45000 1.7
1.6
40000 1.5
1.4
1.3
35000 1.2
1.1
30000 1
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Fatal crashes 37107 37140 37526 37862 38491 38477 38444 39252 38648 37435 34017
Fatalities 41501 41717 41945 42196 43005 42884 42836 43510 42708 41259 37261
Fatality rate 1.58 1.55 1.53 1.51 1.51 1.48 1.44 1.46 1.42 1.36 1.27

Figure 2. Road Safety Facts in the US (1998-2008) (Source: FARS).

Figure 2 summarizes the road safety facts in the US from 1998 to 2008.
Specifically, up to 2007, the annual number of fatal crashes was about 38,000, which
resulted in a loss of more than 42,000 lives per year on average. As can be seen by the
downward line of fatality rate per 100 million VMT, there was a continuous
improvement in safety. This improvement is most noticeable in the latest data for year
2008. According to NHTSA (2009), the number of traffic fatalities in 2008 reached its
lowest level since 1961. There was a 9.7% decline in the number of people killed in
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motor vehicle crashes in the US, from 41,259 in 2007 to 37,261. This decline of 3,998
fatalities is the largest annual reduction in terms of both number and percentage since
1982. More than 90% of this reduction was in passenger vehicles, which make up over
90% of the fleet of registered vehicles. Passenger car occupant fatalities declined for the
sixth consecutive year, and are at their lowest level since the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration (NHTSA) began collecting fatality crash data in 1975. Although
people may have traveled less in 2008 due to the higher price of gas, the overall injury
rate per 100 million VMT declined by 2.4 percent, and the fatality rate also fell to a
historic low of 1.27 in 2008.
An overview of the US road safety indicates a substantial improvement on US
road safety in the past decade. Comparatively, the road safety status in China is much
worse than in the US. Take the 2007 data as an example: in the US, 255.7 million
registered vehicles resulted in a total of 41,259 road fatalities, while the corresponding
numbers for China are about 160 million vehicles and 81,649 deaths (NBSC 2008). Such
a difference partially results from much advanced road safety research and their
subsequent implementations of the research results in the US. In this sense, there is
undoubtedly a long distance China has to go to reach a satisfactory level of road safety.
Many invaluable experiences could be learned from US practice, given the comparable
sizes of road systems and driver population.
Particularly in the past decade, a series of nationwide strategies have been
developed to improve the road safety in the US. These strategies and the associated
safety investment and research projects are mainly initiated and managed by federal-
level agencies and professional associations such as NHSTA, Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA), Transportation Research Board (TRB), and American
Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). Among these
strategies, the most important one is the Strategic Highway Safety Plan (SHSP) and the
guides, programs, and tools developed to facilitate its implementation, which are
introduced in detail in the following section.

STRATEGIC HIGHWAY SAFETY PLAN: A 4E APPROACH

The national goal of the SHSP, as approved by the AASHTO in 1998, is an
annual reduction of 5,000 to 7,000 highway fatalities. In 2003, the AASHTO Board of
Directors, the Governors Highway Safety Association (GHSA), the American
Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA), and the U.S. Department of
Transportation (DOT) set as a goal the reduction of the nation’s highway fatality rate to
not more than one fatality per 100 million VMT by 2008.
To achieve these goals, the updated AASHTO SHSP in 2005 proposed an
integrated approach and a series of tools for state and local transportation agencies to
develop comprehensive highway safety plans. The plan also includes strategies in
twenty-two key emphasis areas that affect highway safety, as shown in Table 1. The top
strategies developed in each of the twenty-two key emphasis areas identified in this
SHSP are designed to mitigate major problems and advance effective practices by means
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that are both cost-effective and acceptable to a significant majority of Americans. Many
emphasis areas include initial model development or demonstration phases to determine
which strategies achieve cost-effective results.

Table 1. Emphasis Areas in AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan.

4Es approach
Elements Emphasis Areas Engineering Education Enforcement EMS
Drivers 1. Instituting Graduated Licensing for Young √ √
Drivers
2. Ensuring drivers are fully licensed and √ √ √
competent
3. Sustaining proficiency in older drivers √ √
4. Curbing aggressive driving √ √
5. Reducing impaired driving √ √
6. Keeping drivers alert √ √
7. Increasing driver safety awareness √ √ √
8. Increasing seat belt usage and improving air √ √ √
bag effectiveness
Special 9. Making walking and street crossing safer √ √ √
users 10. Ensuring safer bicycle travel √ √ √
Vehicles 11. Improving motorcycle safety and √ √ √
increasing motorcycle awareness
12. Making truck travel safer √ √
13. Increasing safety enhancements in vehicles √
Highways 14. Reducing vehicle–train crashes √ √ √
15. Keeping vehicles on the roadway √
16. Minimizing the consequences of leaving √
the road
17. Improving the design and operation of √ √
highway intersections
18. Reducing head-on and across-median √
crashes
19. Designing safer work zones √ √ √
Emergency 20. Enhancing emergency medical capabilities √
Medical to increase survivability
Services
Management 21. Improving information and decision √ √ √
support systems
22. Creating more effective processes and √ √ √
safety management systems

For the successful implementation of the SHSP, a 4E-integrated approach was

developed which deploys the collective expertise of Engineering, Education,
Enforcement, and Emergency Medical Services (EMS) personnel to significantly reduce
road fatalities. For details of each emphasis area in the SHSP and the proposed
countermeasures in the framework of the 4E approach, interested readers are referred to
AASHTO (2005), and Yan et al. (2009) for an interpretation in Chinese.
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IMPLEMENTATION GUIDES, TOOLS, AND OTHER PROGRAMS

In response to the AASHTO SHSP, NCHRP Project 17-18(3): Guidance for
Implementation of the AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan developed a series of
guides to assist state and local agencies in reducing injuries and fatalities. The guides are
published as individual volumes within NCHRP Report 500, Volume 1-23. While each
volume includes strategies and countermeasures for dealing with particular crash
emphasis areas, NCHRP Report 501: Integrated Management Process to Reduce
Highway Injuries and Fatalities Statewide provides an overall framework for
coordinating a safety program. The integrated management process comprises the
necessary steps for advancing from crash data to integrated action plans.

Table 2. Important Guides and Tools for Implementing SHSP.

Guides/Tools
NCHRP 500 Vol. 1-20, 22, 23
NCHRP 500 Vol. 21
NCHRP 501
SHRP2: Strategic Highway
Research Program 2, Safety
DHMS: Digital Highway
Measurement System
MMUCC: Model Minimum
Uniform Crash Criteria
MMIRE: Model Minimum
Inventory of Roadway Elements
HSM: Highway Safety Manual
MUTCD: Manual on Uniform
Traffic Control Devices
IHSDM: Interactive Highway
Safety Design Model
HFG: Human Factors Guidelines
for Road Systems
SafetyAnalyst
Description
Description of specific emphasis areas, improvement strategies, and
implementation guidance
A framework of safety data and analysis in developing emphasis area plans
with separate procedures for various safety problems.
An overall management framework for coordinating safety programs
Prevent or reduce the severity of highway crashes by understanding driver
behavior
A high-speed 3-D mapping system with instrumented van to digitally collect
data on, over, and under the road.
The de-facto standard for crash data variables used by state and local
jurisdictions when improving their crash data systems
A listing of roadway inventory and traffic elements critical to safety
management with proposed standardized coding for each.
Provide factual information and tools to facilitate roadway design and
operational decisions based on explicit consideration on safety consequences.
The standards used by road managers nationwide to install and maintain traffic
control devices on all streets and highways.
A suite of software analysis tools for evaluating safety and operational effects
of geometric design decisions on highways.
Provide factual information and insight on the characteristics of road users to
facilitate safe roadway design and operational decisions.
A set of software tools used by highway agencies to improve their
programming of site-specific highway safety improvements.

Furthermore, a number of important accomplishments have been developed or

are being developed to facilitate the practice with tools in identifying and implementing
the safety improvement strategies at various levels of jurisdiction. Table 2 provides a
glimpse of the most notable guides and tools facilitating the implementation of SHSP.
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Together, the management process and the guides/tools provide a comprehensive

toolbox for managing a coordinated highway safety program.

A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR SAFETY MITIGATION

In the above, we have outlined the US road safety facts and practices to improve
safety. Undoubtedly, the success in road safety needs an assembly of efforts from
various participants, including public and private transportation agencies, practitioners at
different levels, as well as academia and the support of general public. In this sense, a
consensus on a basic conceptual model for safety mitigation is essential. Figure 3 is a
conceptual model for safety mitigation formulated from the US practice.

Figure 3. A Conceptual Model for Safety Mitigation.

A crash event could be defined as three periods: Pre-crash, At-crash, and Post-
crash. Two major targets of safety mitigation are a) to reduce crash risk and prevent
crash event from occurring; and b) to reduce crash severity given a crash occurred,
including bodily injury and property loss. Thus, measures that improve safety could be
placed into two distinct categories: crash prevention and crashworthiness (Evans, 2004).
Crash prevention refers to measures aimed at preventing the crash from occurring. Such
measures may be either of an engineering nature (make vehicles easier to see, better
braking, radar, etc.) or of a behavioral nature (driver selection, training, motivating and
licensing, enforcing traffic laws, etc.). Crashworthiness, or crash protection, refers to
engineering features aimed at reducing losses, given that a specific crash occurs.
Examples including padding the vehicle interior, making structure that is not close to the
occupant crumple during the crash while keeping that occupant compartment strong to
prevent intrusion of struck objects, and devices such as airbags and collapsible steering
columns. Reducing risks of post-crash secondary events such as fires as well as
improving quality emergency medical services are also crashworthiness features. A
fundamental difference between crashworthiness and crash prevention is that when a
crash is prevented all harm is reduced to zero while improving crash worthiness reduces
the level of harm.
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As shown in the Figure 3, the highway system is complicated in that the safety
situation may be affected by a diversity of risk factors reflecting variability in crash
worthiness and crash prevention. Both crash occurring risk and crash severity could be
affected by environmental situation, geometric features, traffic conditions, regulatory
measures, and driver and vehicle characteristics, etc. Moreover, the quality of EMS is
also critical to reduce harm at the post-crash period. Central to road safety research is to
identify contributing or causal factors leading to crash occurrence with higher level of
severity and, subsequently, to develop well-targeted countermeasures to reduce crash
risk and severity.

KEY TECHNICAL ISSUES LEARNED FROM US PRACTICE

For the purpose of efficiently utilizing various guides, tools, and applying results
from research programs to improve safety, it is essential to understand a range of critical
issues and challenges. This section summarizes several key issues reflected by US
experience in strategic safety plans and their effective implementations. It is worth
noting that most of these issues are currently the prominent research topics in the US.
¾ Responsibility Definition and Resource Allocation
Strategic implementation of safety improvement is a systematic and
interdisciplinary program, which requires a coalition of various agencies to work
together. Due to the nature of agencies at different levels (e.g. federal, state, and local
levels in US), it is also essential to explicitly define responsibilities and allocate
resources to each partner within the team so as to maximize the efficiency in safety
improvement. NCHRP Report 501 provides a detailed outline for organizational
structure and management processes within a specific agency in general. It is also
important to differentiate among agencies of different levels according to their political
and organizational culture, budgetary constraints, levels for data integration and
availability, potential for treatment implementation, and jurisdictional safety goals and
needs.
¾ Safety Data Collection and Integration
Although safety analysis approaches vary widely, the overwhelming majority
rely on historical crash records to obtain an estimate of the safety situation for diverse
traffic entities. However, there are many other types of data sources that can be used in
the development of safety plans. As summarized by NCHRP 500, Volume 21, apart
from the crash data, other relevant data sources include roadway inventory data, traffic
volume data, driver history and vehicle registration data, hospital data, systemwide
injury surveillance system files (e.g., NHTSA CODES data), population census data,
citation tracking, DUI tracking files, and so on. However, it is always difficult for
transportation agencies to integrate the usage of these data sources in pursuit of optimal
allocation of treatment resources. This problem becomes more serious in the states
where many important data sources are incomplete or not available. Hence, there is a
need to review various data sources to determine the availability of information so that
robust and realistic methodologies can be appropriately designed to define and prioritize
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needed safety improvements. GIS is a widely accepted tool to integrate safety data
which are naturally geographically referenced.
¾ Strategy: System-Based Programs vs. Spot-Based Programs
Traditional approaches to improve highway safety generally start from the
identification of high crash locations. In these spot-based programs, only the hazardous
sites reflected by the high number or rate of crashes can be reactively addressed, while
other sites with potential safety hazards are ignored. Recently, some US states have
adopted more proactive system-based programs to orient their planning methods to the
identification and treatment of hazardous “systems” of roadways. The most typical
system-based programs include area-based or corridor-based improvements. Differing
from the spot-based programs, system-wide analysis promises to identify crash causation
factors and prioritize effective remediation to reach the system goals, which represents a
significant change from the current situation. Moreover, safety-conscious planning is
being incorporated into the safety intervention programs to more proactively improve
highway safety.
¾ Crash Hot Spot Identification
The intuitive way to identify hazardous traffic entities under investigation is to
rank the entities by their total crash frequencies or rates (or severe crash frequency or
rate). The top ranked entities (i.e., fixed subset size) or entities with crash occurrences
more than a predetermined value (i.e., target safety level) are classified as high risk to be
further scrutinized for potential safety intervention. This approach has been most applied
in traditional practice. However, it also may be useful to rank the entities by the
magnitude by which the crash risk exceeds what is normal for such entities with similar
characteristics. This is often referred to as crash dispersion or crash reduction potential
(Huang et al. 2010). It is related to the concept of “treatability.” By use of crash
dispersion methods, the entities with most correctable potential could be screened and,
as such, the resources dedicated to safety treatment may be distributed more efficiently.
In this regard, crash prediction models are needed to provide a reliable estimate of the
“dispersed” crashes associated with the transportation entities of interest.
¾ Countermeasure Development: An Integrated Approach
The NCHRP Report 500 provides guidance for the development of safety plans
for each specific emphasis area. Each guide includes a brief introduction, a general
description of the problem, the strategies/countermeasures to address the problem, and a
model implementation process. Volume 21 further provides analytical methods that can
assist the safety analyst in choosing and targeting safety improvement strategies in the
twenty-two different emphasis areas. Different strategies are recommended to address
different emphasis areas, all of which are from the perspective of the 4Es. However, it
does not seem realistic or cost-beneficial for state or local agencies to implement
independent analysis and treatments for each of the target emphasis areas, since many
emphasis areas and safety interventions are inter-related. For example, the enhanced
enforcement efforts in certain areas may be effective to such emphasis areas as
aggressive driving, impaired driving, distracted driving, speeding, and seat belt use.
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NCHRP Report 501 examines issues associated with developing an integrated safety
management process, a tool to assist in integrating safety-related implementation actions
by bringing together agencies within a jurisdiction that are responsible for highway
safety. Detailed analyses are warranted for each jurisdiction to develop more integrated
methodologies to deal with all the emphasis areas to prioritize safety improvement
strategies and optimize resource allocation.
¾ Treatment Selection: Proactive Estimation and Posterior Evaluation of Safety Effect
Once strategic development of countermeasures is determined, users considering
a safety improvement program in a particular emphasis area will need to make a
decision among alternative specific treatments. The treatment selection is largely based
on cost-benefit evaluation, which is, in turn, subject to availability of safety effect
estimation of alternative treatments of interest. In NCHRP Report 500, HSM, and other
relevant accomplishments as mentioned above, crash reduction factors (CRF) and
accident modification factors (AMF) are provided for some of the strategies
recommended. In case of a lack of developed CRFs for some treatments, specific
analyses based on crash prediction models or empirical estimations are warranted. On
the other hand, after the implementation of treatments, it is also necessary for a posterior
evaluation of safety effects to confirm and update the CRFs or AMFs of the specific
treatment. All these evaluation methods are relatively well established and specific
software such as “SafetyAnalyst” has been developed to facilitate practitians to do the
analyses.
¾ Cost-Benefit Evaluation of Safety Investment
Finally, economic analysis is an important issue in pursuit of the most cost-
beneficial safety improvements so as to obtain an optimal allocation of limited budget
and resources. The net-benefit depends on two sides of the subject, simply “cost” and
“benefit.” Hence, essential to the economic evaluation is an appropriate estimate on the
monetary cost for implementing certain treatments and crash reduction benefits
expressed in dollars. In addition, the strength of cost-benefit analysis is that it includes
all measurable impacts on society, and not just budgetary effects. Thus, an attempt must
be made to estimate the total net benefit to society of increased safety, rather than a
simple count of crash reductions.

CONCLUSION
With the rapid development of road network systems in China, the past decade
witnessed a revolutionary improvement in transportation accessibility and mobility.
However, safety on our nation’s roads is impossible to ignore and has increasingly
become a pressing public concern. In fact, China has been consecutively ranked number
one in road fatalities and injuries in the world. There is a long way to go for China to
reach a satisfactory level of road safety, but this must be urgently pursued. Fortunately,
many invaluable experiences could be learned from successes in many developed
countries. This paper presents an overview of US practices in road safety improvement
and some critical issues in developing safety countermeasures. It is expected to shed
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light for China on formulating its own strategies to efficiently and effectively cope with
the road safety challenges.

REFERENCES
AASHTO, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (2005).
AASHTO Strategic Highway Safety Plan. http://safety.transportation.org/.
Evans, L. (2004). Traffic Safety. Bloomfield Hills, Michigan: Science Serving Society.
FARS. Fatal Analysis Reporting System. National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration, NHTSA. http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/people/ncsa/fars.html.
Huang H., Chin H.C., and Haque M.M. (2009). Empirical evaluation of alternative
approaches in identifying crash hotspots: naive ranking, empirical Bayes and
full Bayes. Transportation Research Record 2103, 32-41.
NBSC, National Bureau of Statistics of China (2008). China Statistical Yearbook 2008.
China Statistics Press.
NHTSA (2009). 2008 Traffic Safety Annual Assessment: A brief statistical summary.
http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/.
Yan X.P., Huang H., and Ma M. (2009). Road safety in the United States: state of the art
and the practice. Journal of Transportation Information and Safety 27(5), 1-9.
(in Chinese).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1022
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Bayesian Modeling of Frequency-Severity Indeterminacy with an Application to

Traffic Crashes on Two-Lane Highways

Jianming MA1 and Zheng LI2

1
Texas Department of Transportation, 118 E. Riverside Drive, Austin, TX 78704, USA;
Phone: +1 (512) 416-3223; Fax: +1 (512) 416-3299; E-Mail: JMa@dot.state.tx.us
2
Texas Department of Transportation, 4203 Bull Creek Rd, #39, Austin TX 78731,
USA;
Phone: +1 (512) 465-3604; Fax: +1 (512) 465-3681; E-Mail: ZLi@dot.state.tx.us

ABSTRACT
The basis for traffic safety research studies, which have developed numerous
countermeasures to treat deficiencies in highway design features, surface conditions,
traffic control devices, and driving behavior, comes from police reported crash data.
However, a significant number of crashes go unreported. Studies show that severe
crashes are more likely to be reported than those with lower severity. This issue is
called frequency-severity indeterminacy. Because of frequency-severity indeterminacy,
it is difficult to determine if a change in the number of reported crashes is caused by an
actual change in number of crashes, a shift in severity proportions, or a mixture of both.
Using underreported data tends to create the issue of frequency-severity indeterminacy,
further producing a biased picture of traffic safety and by extension ineffective
treatments. This paper presents a new approach addressing the issue of frequency-
severity indeterminacy with a modified latent Poisson regression model. With recent
advancements in crash modeling and Bayesian statistics, the parameter estimation is
implemented within the Bayesian paradigm using two Gibbs Samplers and a Metropolis-
Hastings (M-H) algorithm. The methodology is then empirically applied to investigate
the issue of frequency-severity indeterminacy in traffic crashes that occurred on
Washington two-lane highways.
INTRODUCTION
In the U.S., traffic crashes bring about more loss of human life (as measured in
human-years) than almost any other cause—falling behind only cancer and heart disease
(NHTSA, 2005). The annual cost of such crashes is estimated to be $231 billion, or $820
per capita in 2000 (Blincoe et al., 2002). These figures do not include the cost of delays
imposed on other travelers, which also are significant; particularly when crashes occur
on busy highways. For example, Schrank et al. (2002) estimate that over half of all
traffic delays are due to non-recurring events, such as crashes, costing on the order of
$1,000 per peak-period driver per year, particularly in urban areas.
There has been considerable crash prediction research (e.g., Abdel-Aty et al.,
2000; Hauer, 2001; Ulfarsson et al., 2003; Kweon et al., 2005; Lord et al., 2005). The
basis for traffic safety research studies, which have developed numerous
countermeasures to treat deficiencies in highway design features, surface conditions,
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traffic control devices, and driving behavior, comes from police reported crash data.
However, a significant number of crashes go unreported. Studies (e.g., Hauer, 2006;
Blower et al., 2008) show that severe crashes are more likely to be reported than less
severe crashes. This situation is called frequency-severity indeterminacy (Hauer, 2006).
Because of frequency-severity indeterminacy, it is difficult to determine if a change in
the number of reported crashes is caused by an actual change in number of crashes, a
shift in severity proportions, or a mixture of both. Underreporting is most likely to
happen when the injured parities are at fault, and do not want to involve the police due
to insurance or legal concerns, or where minor or no injuries are involved. In general,
all crashes (regardless of being reported or unreported) may be less serious on average
than police reported crashes. It is possible the crash types tending to produce serious
injuries would be over-represented in crash data. There is nothing wrong with being
more concerned about crashes that do serious damage, however, underreported traffic
crash data tends to produce a biased picture of traffic safety, and thus results in
ineffective treatments.
This paper presents a new approach to addressing the issue of frequency-
indeterminacy with a modified latent Poisson model. With recent advancements in crash
modeling and Bayesian statistics, the parameter estimation is implemented within the
Bayesian paradigm using two Gibbs Samplers and a Metropolis-Hastings (M-H)
algorithm. The methodology is empirically applied to investigate traffic crashes that
occurred on Washington two-lane highways. The data is obtained via the Highway
Safety Information System (HSIS) database and the results may serve as
recommendations for highway safety treatments and design policies.
This paper is organized in the following order: related research studies, the
model’s formulation, data sets, estimation results, concluding remarks, and future
research directions.
LITERATURE REVIEW
In past decades, numerous count data models have been developed to investigate
associations between crash frequency and many crucial factors, such as traffic volume,
access density, posted speed limit, and number of lanes (e.g., Fridstrøm et al., 1995;
Shankar et al., 1997; Vogt, 1999; Garber et al., 2001; Lee et al., 2002; Zegeer et al.,
2002; Miaou et al., 2003; Kumara et al., 2003; Rodriguez et al., 2003; Pernia et al., 2004;
Noland et al., 2004; Qin et al., 2004; Ma et al., 2008). Problems, such as over-
dispersion, under-dispersion, unobserved heterogeneity, and correlated counts, have
received increased attention in modeling traffic crash occurrence using standard Poisson
regression models.
Underreporting is not unusual in traffic crash data. For example, about 25
percent of crashes with only minor injuries and 50 percent of property damage only
(PDO) go unreported, according to Blincoe et al. (2002). Numerous efforts (e.g., Agran
et al., 1990; James, 1991; Ibrahim et al., 1992; Aptel et al., 1999; Elvik et al., 1999;
Lopez et al., 1999; Cryer et al., 2001; Hauer, 2006; Blower et al., 2008) have been
devoted to examine general underreporting, underreporting rates for different injury
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severities, and factors affecting crash report. For example, based on a meta-analysis of
49 studies in 13 countries, Elvik et al. (1999) found that the reporting probabilities were
70 percent for serious injuries, 25 percent for slight injuries and 10 percent for very
slight injuries. However, except for Kumara et al. (2005), most of the existing research
in modeling crash occurrence ignores underreporting, a situation in which the number of
police reported crashes is less than the total number of crashes. This underreporting
invalidates the assumptions of the standard Poisson regression model. Kumara et al.
(2005) applied a Poisson underreporting model to investigate traffic crashes that
occurred at signalized three-legged intersections in Singapore. In this study, Kumara et
al. exclusively focused on likelihood based estimation techniques.
This paper presents a modified latent Poisson regression model that addresses the
issue of frequency-severity indeterminacy. The dependent variable is number of crashes
on a highway segment during a given period of time (e.g., one year). Unlike previous
specification of count data models, this modified latent Poisson regression model allows
for the fact that the number of police reported crashes may not represent all crash data.
Two Gibbs samplers and an M-H algorithm are established to estimate the parameters of
interest for the modified latent Poisson regression model. A data augmentation
algorithm is implemented to obtain the latent total number of crashes. For comparison
purposes, a standard Poisson regression model is estimated.
MODEL AND ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY
Model Structure
Let denote the total number of crashes occurred on highway segment during
a specific period of time (usually one year) and assume that conditional on covariates
is Poisson distributed with a mean:
, (1)
where denotes the mean of the Poisson distribution, is a vector of
unknown regression coefficients and includes factors such as
highway design features, speed limits, and traffic conditions. The probability density of
this standard Poisson regression model is:

(2)
The assumption that is fully observed is unrealistic in modeling traffic crash
occurrence. Rather, it is possible that the number of police reported crashes
constitutes only a fraction of all crashes, and that traffic crash counts are underreported.
Suppose that , conditional on is binomially distributed as:
(3)
where denotes the average probability of reporting a crash on highway segment .
This probability is independent of the history of the process. The number of reported
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crashes is , where can be any number of unreported crashes. All the

crashes are reported if . The marginal distribution of the number of police
reported crashes can be calculated as:
(4)
Hence, the number of police reported crashes is again Poisson distributed with a
mean .
The resulting modified Poisson model with underreporting is similar to a
standard Poisson model with unobserved heterogeneity. In particular, the mean function
can be rewritten as:
(5)
Since , the “additive error” is strictly negative. The marginal
(with respect to ) expectation and variance of are given by and

respectively. Hence, and random underreporting causes over-

dispersion.
Parameter Estimation via MCMC
In order to illustrate crash rate relationships, the underreporting Poisson
regression model’s unknown parameters need to be estimated. Chib et al. (1998)
showed how to estimate unknown parameters for their models of panel data and
Plassmann et al. (2001) developed a Gibbs sampler to estimate parameters in a Poisson-
lognormal regression model. Ma et al. (2008) employed Bayesian data augmentation
techniques to estimate a multivariate Poisson Lognormal regression model. Suppose
that the parameters and independently have the prior distributions:
, and (6)
where is a -variate normal probability function, is a uniform probability
function, and and are known hyperparameters. The density of
conditional on and is given by:

(7)
According to Bayes’ theorem ( posterior  prior  likelihood ), the posterior
kernel can be written as follows:

Plug equations (2) and (3) into the above formula, and the resulting joint
posterior kernel of , , and is then proportional to:

(8)
Using the data augmentation technique, the latent crash counts can be treated
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as “nuisance” parameters. Thanks to this technique, the parameters can be “blocked” as

, , and , and then the joint posterior kernel is simulated by iteratively drawing from
the following three conditional distributions: , , and ,
where denotes the posterior conditional density function.
The draws are sampled sequentially using the most recent values of the
conditioning variables at each step. The sampling process is initiated with starting
values in the support of the posterior density. Sampling from the marginal distributions
uses the algorithms shown in Ma et al. (2008).
DATA AND EMPIRICAL APPLICATION
Data Description
The crash data sets used here were collected from Washington through the
Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) database. In order to examine traffic crash
patterns on two-lane highways, this research considers crashes in the Puget Sound region.
A total of 8,683 two-lane highway segments, with an average segment length of 0.06
mile and a total of 505 miles, are available for analysis. It is quite possible that very
short segments do not faithfully represent the actual location of crashes, as police
officers may locate crashes only to the nearest tenth of a mile. Cluster analysis, wherein
similar segments/conditions are merged (providing higher crash counts) can address
some of this bias in reporting. Ma et al. (2006) conducted such an analysis with
Washington data. For the purpose of illustration, those raw homogeneous segments are
used as a sample for parameter estimation. This sample contains a total of 3,319 crashes.
Table 1 reports summary statistics for the dependent and independent variables
employed in the analysis. A variety of readily available variables are controlled in the
model, including design features, speed limit, and location information:
Table 1. Summary Statistics of Variables.
Variable Name Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Dependent Variables
Number of crashes 0.3822 1.158 0 27
Explanatory Variables
Segment length (miles) 0.05812 0.1073 0.00 5.89
Degree of curvature (°/100feet) 2.462 6.181 0 127.32
Inverse of horizontal curve length (1/feet) 0.0009136 0.00186 0 0.02273
Vertical grade (%) 1.928 1.952 0 9.16
Inverse of vertical curve length (1/feet) 0.002920 0.00382 0 0.1
Surface width (feet) 24.31 6.198 17 105
Indicator for rural area: 1=yes, 0=no 0.7487 0.4338 0 1
Posted speed limit (miles/hour) 46.93 9.173 25 60
Posted speed limit squared (miles2/hour2) 2286 816.3 625 3600
Average annual daily traffic (AADT) 9956 7825 282 64170
Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in 2002 215863 762809 0.000 4.8e+07
The natural logarithm of VMT 11.14 2.820 -23.8 17.68
Number of observations 8,683
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Model Estimation
The underreporting Poisson regression model was estimated using the Bayesian
augmentation technique as described above. The starting values for  came from the
standard Poisson models [using the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)].
Two Gibbs samplers and an M-H algorithm were coded in the R language (an open-
source statistical computing environment described at http://www.r-project.org/). To
help ensure chain convergence, the Gibbs samplers and the M-H algorithm were
implemented using two sets of starting values (zeros were used as the starting values for
in the second chain) and both converged at the same posterior distribution of
parameters. Convergence was obtained fairly quickly, under a variety of assumed priors
and initial values. Standard diagnostic methods, as proposed by various researchers
(including Gelman et al., 2004), were used, such as checking for autocorrelations and
cross-correlations. Estimation results are presented in Table 2:
Table 2. Crash Frequency Underreporting Poisson Regression Model Results.
Variable definition Mean Std. Err. Credible Interval
Constant -16.79 0.3945 -17.56 -16.01
Degree of curvature (°/100ft) 0.2798 0.003288 0.02154 0.03443
Inverse of horiz. curve length (1/ft) 22.44 13.99 -4.988 49.87
Vertical grade (%) 0.03912 0.007453 0.02451 0.05372
Inverse of vert. curve length (1/ft) 22.11 4.350 13.59 30.64
Surface width (ft) 0.03164 0.001741 0.02822 0.03505
Indicator for rural area: 1=yes, 0=no 0.1227 0.03174 0.06047 0.1849
Posted speed limit (m/h) 0.1621 0.01750 0.1278 0.1964
Posted speed limit squared (m2/h2) -0.00204 0.0001944 -0.00242 -0.00166
Number of observations 8,683
Note: Italics are used for parameters that do not differ from zero in a statistically
significant way, based on the 95% (2.5-97.5%) sample-based credible sets.
Interpretation of Results
Table 2 provides crash count model estimates using the underreporting Poisson
regression model. For the purpose of comparison, a standard Poisson regression model
is estimated using the same control variables and data sets, and is shown in Table 3. The
signs of all coefficients are consistent between the two models, indicating robust
directions of effect for all control variables. However, the magnitudes of all coefficients
are different between the two models. This difference may suggest that the latent
unreported crashes play a role in predicting the crashes. The model results will be
discussed below.
Table 3. Crash Frequency Standard Poisson Regression Model Results.
Variable definition Mean Std. Err. Credible Interval
Constant -17.49 0.5061 -18.48 -16.49
Degree of curvature (°/100ft) 0.2956 0.004155 0.02141 0.03770
Inverse of horiz. curve length (1/ft) 13.51 18.04 -21.85 48.86
Vertical grade (%) 0.03531 0.009416 0.01685 0.05376
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Variable definition Mean Std. Err. Credible Interval

Inverse of vert. curve length (1/ft) 20.20 5.545 9.331 31.07
Surface width (ft) 0.02963 0.002262 0.02520 0.03407
Indicator for rural area: 1=yes, 0=no 0.1093 0.03998 0.03094 0.1877
Posted speed limit (m/h) 0.1744 0.2237 0.1305 0.2182
Posted speed limit squared (m2/h2) -0.00215 0.000248 -0.00264 -0.001665
Number of observations 8,683
Note: The meaning for values in Italics is the same as shown in Table 2.
Horizontal Curve
A horizontal curve can be determined by the degree of curve and curve length.
The degree of curve is the number of degrees of arc subtended by 100 feet of curve
length. The radius of a curve equals 5729.65/degree of curve in feet, and this means the
radius of a straight line is infinity. Horizontal curve length, without any transformation,
has been used in many research studies to develop crash occurrence models (e.g., Ma et
al., 2006a; Ma et al., 2006b). The curve length for straight segments is often coded as
zero in raw crash data, which is not true based on the previous discussion. Instead of
using curve length, this research uses the inverse of curve length for highway segments
with curves, and zero for straight segments. Tables 2 and 3 provide regression results
from both models. It can be seen from the two tables that more crashes are expected on
sharper horizontal curves, holding all other factors fixed.

Table 4. Expected Percentage Changes in Crash Rates with respect to Changes in

Variables (Underreporting Poisson Specification).
Variables Average Changes Changes in crash rates (%)
Degree of curvature (°/100ft) 2.462 +2 +75.00%
Vertical grade (%) 1.928 +2 +8.14%
Vertical curve length (1/ft) 342 +100 -1.45%
Surface width (feet) 24.31 +5 +17.14%
Indicator for rural: 1=yes, 0=no 1 0 -11.55%
Posted speed limit (m/h) 46.93 +10 -27.70%
Based on an average road segment’s attributes and the underreporting Poisson
regression model’s mean parameter estimates, Table 4 provides estimates of percentage
changes in crash rates as a function of various design details. For example, an increase
in the degree of curve from 2.462 to 4.462 (which is equivalent to a decrease of radius
from 2,327 feet to 1,284 feet) is predicted to result in 75 percent more crashes per 100
million VMT on Washington two-lane roads. Table 5 presents estimates of percentage
changes in crash rates as a function of various design details based on the standard
Poisson regression model. The same change in the degree of curve (or radius) is
predicted to result in 81 percent more crashes per 100 million VMT. This comparison
may suggest that crashes on curve segments are more likely to be reported.
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Table 5. Expected Percentage Changes in Crash Rates with respect to Changes in

Variables (Standard Poisson Specification).
Variables Average Changes Change in crash rates (%)
Degree of curvature (°/100ft) 2.462 +2 +80.62%
Vertical grade (%) 1.928 +2 +7.32%
Vertical curve length (1/ft) 342 +100 -1.32%
Surface width (feet) 24.31 +5 +15.97%
Indicator for rural: 1=yes, 0=no 1 0 -10.35%
Posted speed limit (m/h) 46.93 +10 -26.67%
The effect of the horizontal curve length on crash occurrence prediction in both
of the models does not differ from zero in a statistically significant way, based on the 95
percent (2.5-97.5%) sample-based credible sets.
Vertical Curve
A vertical curve can be determined by the vertical grade and curve length.
Similar to horizontal curve length, an inverse of vertical curve length is used in
estimating the underreporting Poisson regression model. Both of the models suggest,
holding other factors constant, that steeper curves tend to experience more crashes,
while longer vertical curves are predicted to provide a larger beneficial effect on crash
rates. A comparison of Tables 4 and 5 suggests underreporting is more likely to make
the standard Poisson model underestimate the negative effect of steeper curves and the
beneficial effect of longer curves.
Surface Width
In the data set used for estimation, the surface width refers to the paved portion
of road surface. Both of the models show an increase in crash rates as the paved surface
width increases, holding other factors constant. The magnitude of surface width is
different between the two models. This difference may be due to underreporting.
Rural vs. Urban
Tables 4 and 5 suggest rural two-lane highways are likely to experience more
crashes than urban two-lane highways, holding other control factors constant. This
variable is more likely to represent some of the unobserved (or unobservable) factors
such as illumination, signs, and pavement markings. A comparison of the two tables
also suggests that crashes in the urban area are more likely to be reported than in the
rural area.
Speed Limit
Speed limit has been a controversial topic in the investigations of its relationship
with crash occurrence. Unlike most of the existing research, both of the models
developed in this research suggest that higher speed limit is predicted to reduce total
number of crashes, holding other control factors constant. This benefit may be because
the driving public tends to obey the higher speed limit. At lower speeds, more passing is
likely to happen, and passing can be a complicated task on two-lane highways. In
addition, speed limits normally are lowered by 5-10 mph in small towns. Pedestrian
activity and drive density tend to play a role in small towns. However, these two
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variables are not observed and controlled in this research. Speed limit may pick up
some effects of those two factors. A simple mathematical calculation shows that the
highest crash rate is expected at 40 mph from both of the models. However, the
standard Poisson regression model tends to underestimate the beneficial effects of higher
speed limits.
CONCLUSION
This paper presents a modified latent Poisson regression model that can help
address the issue of frequency-severity indeterminacy caused by the use of
underreporting data. Unlike previous specification of count data models, this modified
latent Poisson regression model allows for the fact that the number of police reported
crashes may be underreported. Two Gibbs samplers and an M-H algorithm are
established to estimate the parameters of interest for the modified latent Poisson
regression model. A data augmentation algorithm is implemented to obtain the latent
total number of crashes. For comparison purposes, a standard Poisson regression model
is estimated.
Crash counts for 8,683 homogeneous segments of two-lane Washington
highways in the Puget Sound region in 2002 were used to estimate the model. Thanks to
MCMC simulation techniques, the marginal posterior distributions of all parameters of
interest were obtained, and estimation results from the underreporting Poisson regression
model offered predictions for reported crashes and unreported crashes.
As anticipated, the results lend themselves to several recommendations for
highway safety treatment and design policies. For example, adding shoulder width is
predicted to be highly cost-effective, in terms of crash cost reductions over the long run.
The underreporting Poisson regression model is a simple mixture of a standard
Poisson and a beta distribution. The standard Poisson and beta distributions are assumed
independent from one another. This assumption can be somewhat relaxed by letting the
reporting rate depend on a set of covariates that possibly overlap with the control
variables in the Poisson regression model. This new specification, however, cannot
differentiate underreporting rates for different levels of injury severity. In reality, the
greater the severity of the crashes, the more likely they will be reported. Therefore,
multivariate specifications, which simultaneously allow for modeling crash occurrence
by severity, should be tried to better represent varying underreporting rates by severity.
The current underreporting specification assumes equi-dispersion, which is
actually strong and often violated by the data. The framework of this research is
established in its parametric assumptions. Parametric methods can be implemented
using assumptions of underlying distributions and relationships. Misspecification of the
distribution may lead to serious errors in subsequent data analysis. Semi-parametric and
nonparametric regression analysis relaxes these assumptions (e.g., Gurmu et al., 1999;
Wooldridge, 1999; Alfò, 2004). Damien (2005) suggests that nonparametric
distributions actually have an infinite-dimensional parameter space. That is, they have
too many parameters to be described in the manner of parametric distributions. For
example, Gurmu et al. (1999) developed a semi-parametric approach to investigate over-
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1031
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dispersed count data using a Laguerre series expansion of an unknown density function
for unobserved heterogeneity.
The cost of relaxing such assumption requires more computation and, in some
instances, a more difficult-to-understand result. The benefits of nonparametric methods
include a potentially more accurate estimate of the regression function and often “exact”
probability statements, regardless of the shape of the population distribution from which
the random sample was drawn (Damien, 2005).
The underreporting Poisson regression model estimated here incorporates the
safety effects of several highway design and traffic features of interest to traffic and
transportation engineers. However, several features of interest that are not available
have been omitted from the model, including, driveway density, sight distance, etc. In
addition, the model generally treats the effects of individual geometric design features as
independent from one another and ignores potential interactions among them. Such
interactions may exist (such as combinations of horizontal and vertical curvature on the
same segment), and these should be examined in the future endeavors of this type.
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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1034
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Development of a Safety Performance Function

for Signalized Diamond Interchange Ramp Terminals

Heng WANG1, Xiao QIN2 and David NOYCE3

 
1. Traffic Operations and Safety (TOPS) Laboratory, Department of Civil and
Environment Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1241 Engineering Hall,
1415 Engineering Drive, Madison, WI 53706; email: wangheng04@gmail.com
2. Department of Civil Engineering, South Dakota State University, CEH 148, Box
2219, Brooklings, SD 57007; PH 605-688-6355; email: Xiao.Qin@sdstate.edu
3. Traffic Operations and Safety (TOPS) Laboratory, Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1204 Engineering
Hall, 1415 Engineering Drive, Madison, WI 53706; PH (608) 265-1882; FAX (608)
262-5199;email: noyce@engr.wisc.edu

ABSTRACT
Interchange ramp terminals are important parts of the highway system. However,
crashes that occur at ramp terminals are not well researched. Additionally, very few
research efforts have developed safety performance functions for interchange ramp
terminals. This research collected data from six none-frontage-road diamond
interchanges in Madison, Wisconsin, and developed a safety performance function for
signalized diamond interchange ramp terminals by using a generalized linear regression
approach. The factors considered include the following: volume, clearance interval (i.e.,
yellow and all-red intervals), off ramp exclusive right turn phase, and spacing between
two adjacent terminals. The major findings suggest three outcomes: (1) the crash
frequency will increase with the deficient yellow or all-red intervals; (2) the probability
of rear-end crashes increases and the probability of angle crashes decreases if the
interchange ramp terminals have an off ramp exclusive right turn phase; and (3) as
terminal spacing increases, the crash frequency will increase, with crash type dependent
on terminal spacing.
INTRODUCTION
Interchange ramp terminals are important parts of the highway system. Ramp
terminals provide the connection between various highway facilities, such as freeways
and arterials. Similar to conventional intersections, traffic flow with different travel
directions conflict with one another at ramp terminals, which can increase the crash
potential.
Interchange ramp terminals contribute to a large portion of crashes within
interchange areas. The Fatality Analysis Reporting (FARS) System data shows that
approximately 25 percent of fatal crashes within interchange areas are ramp terminal
crashes (Torbic et al., 2009). Considering the large amount of interchanges across the
country, the number of crashes that occur at ramp terminals is of significance and
requires additional research to better understand.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1035
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Crashes which occur at conventional four-leg at grade intersections have been

well researched to a certain level. However, it is not safe to transfer the knowledge
gained from at-grade conventional intersections to interchange ramp terminals; there are
several substantial differences between them. One difference is that conventional
intersections and ramp terminals have different pattern of conflict points, as shown in
Figure 1. Signal timing plan is another important difference between conventional
intersections and diamond interchanges. The signal timing plan of diamond interchanges
will consider two ramp terminals together, due to the close spacing of two ramp
terminals.

Figure 1. Conflict points at conventional intersections

and interchange ramp terminals.
Upon realizing the difference between conventional intersections and
interchange ramp terminals, and the large amount of crashes at ramp terminals, it is
necessary to identify the factors influencing ramp terminal crashes and develop specific
safety performance functions (SPFs) for them. This paper will focus on developing a
SPF for signalized diamond interchange ramp terminals, considering the factors of
volume exposure, clearance interval, off ramp exclusive right turn phase, and spacing
between two terminals.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Only two previous research efforts were identified as trying to build a safety
performance function (SPF) for interchange ramp terminals. One was conducted by
Torbic and Harwood et al (2007) and the other was conducted by Bushu and Parajuli et
al (2006). Torbic developed Interchange Safety Analysis Tools (ISAT) which include 16
SPFs for interchange ramp terminals considering the factors of area type, type of traffic
control, number of legs, severity level, and volume on ramps and crossroads. The major
deficiency of ISAT ramp terminal SPFs is they were derived from SafetyAnalyst
(Harwood et al., 2004) which was developed specific for conventional intersections.
Bushu et al. collected data from 380 ramp terminals in the province of Ontario, Canada
and developed six different SPFs specific for ramp terminals considering the factor of
geometry type, traffic control type, and severity level. In general, previous researches
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1036
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considered the impact of different traffic control types and geometric conditions, but did
not consider the impact of signal timing and spacing between adjacent terminals.
The literature is scarce when considering the safety effects of clearance intervals
(i.e., yellow and all-red intervals) for interchange ramp terminals. However, findings for
conventional intersections crashes can be traced back to 1985 when Zador et al. (1985)
investigated the effect of signal timing on traffic flow and crashes at signalized
intersections. Daytime (6:00 am to 8:00 pm) traffic and crash data was received from 91
intersections from eight metropolitan areas around the United States. All 91 intersections
were clustered into five groups in terms of their characteristics and crash rates. The
results showed that crash rates increased as the adequacy of the clearance intervals
decreased. The crash rate for the group with the least adequate clearance intervals was
higher than the crash rate for the group with the most adequate intervals. Following
researchers confirmed this conclusion. Bonneson and Zimmerman (2006) found that an
increase in yellow interval duration of 1.0 s could arouse a 40 percent reduction in
crashes. Based on 63 red-light-related crashes, Zimmerman and Bonneson (2005) found
that crash type was related to time in the all-red interval of a crash, i.e., left-turn-
opposing crashes within the first five seconds of red, while right-angle crashes generally
after five seconds of red. By using the generalized estimating equations which are an
extension of generalized linear models to the correlated data, Wang and Abdel-Aty
(2007) concluded that larger values of yellow and all-red intervals will reduce right-
angle crashes in the conflict zone near the approach.
Since red-light-running violations and conflicts are positively related to red-light-
running crashes, several research efforts have been focused on the effect of clearance
intervals on red-light running violations. Retting et al. (2008) conducted an experiment
that increased the yellow interval by about 1.0 s at six approaches to two intersections in
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Their results showed that yellow timing changes reduced
red light violations by 36 percent. Bonneson and Zimmerman’s research confirmed this
result (Bonneson et al., 2004). Their finding showed that an increase of 1.0 s in yellow
interval, as long as it does not exceed 5.5 s, will decrease the frequency of red-light
violation by at least 50 percent. Bonneson and Son (2003) found that the frequency of
red light running is at relatively low value for yellow intervals between 3.8 s and 5.0 s,
increases significantly for yellow intervals less than 3.5 s and increases slightly for
yellow intervals larger than 4.5 s. Gates et al. (2007) analyzed driver behavior in
dilemma zones at signalized intersections and confirmed that yellow intervals which
were deficient with respect to ITE equation for computing the length of yellow interval
contribute to a greater likelihood of red light running.
In terms of the safety effects of spacing, previous studies concentrated on the
access spacing upstream of on ramp or downstream of off ramp, however, no study has
focuses on the safety effect of spacing between two adjacent ramp terminals. NCHRP
Report 420 summarizes “many studies over the past 40 years have shown that accident
rates rise with greater frequency of driveways and intersections. Each additional
driveway increases accident potential.....In general, each additional access point per mile
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1037
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increases the accident rate by about four percent” (Gluck et al., 1999). Gluck et al. (1999)
suggested the minimum access spacing standards for a four-lane crossroad at
interchange. For fully developed urban areas, the suggested spacing for the first access
from the off ramp, the first access before the on ramp, and the first major signalized
intersection are 230 feet, 300 feet, and 805 feet, respectively. Zhou et al. (2008) suggest
that “the state transportation agencies and the traveling public may benefit greatly by an
increase in the amount of limited access right-of-way at interchange areas to a minimum
of 600 feet and a desirable 1,320 feet”.
In summary, previous researches has developed SPFs for interchange ramp
terminals, but did not consider the factor of signal timing and terminal spacing which
both have effect on crashes.
OBJECTIVE AND METHODOLOGY
The objective of this research was to develop a SPF for signalized diamond
interchange ramp terminals. The major factors considered include volume, clearance
interval, off ramp exclusive right turn phase, and spacing between two ramp terminals.
A generalized linear regression model was considered as the approach to develop
the SPF. Although the generalized linear model has some short-coming related to the
potential for over dispersion, it still can give an accurate approximation and most
critically, it is easy to understand.
DATA COLLECTION
Focus Area
As shown in Figure 2, each diamond interchange has a pair of ramp terminals
which form the focus area of this research. Each ramp terminal has four legs: two legs
for crossroad, one for off-ramp and one for on-ramp. This research considered the pair
of ramp terminals together.

Figure 2. Study focus Area: diamond interchange ramp terminals.

Sites Selection
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1038
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The study sites in this research were selected from state highway
STH12/14/18/151, often called the Beltline Highway, in Madison, Wisconsin. There are
15 interchanges on the Beltline Highway. Among these, there are seven none-frontage-
road diamond interchanges. And six of the seven interchanges have available signal
timing data. Therefore, the six interchanges were selected as study sites and shown in
Table 1 with their IDs.

Table 1. Study Sites and Their IDs.

ID Interchange Location
1 Beltline Highway & Greenway Blvd
2 Beltline Highway & Mineral Point Road
3 Beltline Highway & Old Sauk Road
4 Beltline Highway & Rimrock Road
5 Beltline Highway & S. Gammon Road
6 Beltline Highway & US51Highway

Table 2. Crash History of Selected Diamond Interchange Ramp Terminals.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ID Rear- Rear- Rear- Rear- Rear-
All Angle All Angle All Angle All Angle All Angle
End End End End End
1 10 4 2 6 3 2 6 2 0 5 2 0 5 3 0
2 4 3 0 4 0 2 7 5 1 7 5 1 8 5 2
3 6 4 1 4 3 1 4 3 0 5 5 0 7 4 2
4 7 4 1 7 3 2 8 1 2 6 2 1 6 4 1
5 37 19 12 24 10 10 21 11 6 17 8 4 21 10 8
6 25 16 6 23 11 6 20 9 5 32 11 11 21 12 4
Total 89 50 22 68 30 23 66 31 14 72 33 17 68 38 17

Table 3. Characteristics of Selected Diamond Interchange Ramp Terminals.

Yellow All-red Speed
Total AADT AADT AADT AADT Spacing
ID Interval Interval Limit
crashes ramp1 ramp2 crd1 crd2 (ft)
(s) (s) (mi/h)
1 32 8100 2000 4200 21100 4.0 1.0 35 480
2 30 9100 10000 32900 36650 3.5 2.0 35 280
3 26 8100 3700 19450 28700 3.5 2.0 35 420
4 34 4300 8000 12300 12300 4.0 2.0 35 490
5 120 14600 6600 45050 50850 3.5 1.5 35 430
6 121 24800 7400 33500 40200 4.0 2.5 45 400
Note: AADTramp1, AADTramp2, AADTcrd1, AADTcrd2 are shown in Figure 2.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1039
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Figure 4. Geometry and signal control comparison

between with and without off ramp exclusive right turn phase.
Data Collection and Description
For each study site, crash data, traffic volume, signal timing, and geometry data
were collected, shown in Table 2 and Table 3.
Five years of crash data (2004 to 2008) were collected from the Wisconsin
Department of Transportation (WisDOT) MV4000 crash database. All intersection-
related crashes within interchange area were identified as ramp terminal crashes.
Average annual daily traffic (AADT) of all off-ramps and crossroads for the six
interchanges were obtained from WisDOT traffic volume counts (WisDOT, 2007). The
most recent counts were obtained in 2006. It was assumed that the volume almost kept
constant over the five year study period.
Signal timing plans for all the ramp terminals were obtained from WisDOT and
the City of Madison. All six sites use similar signal timing sequences. The off ramp left
turns use protected phase only, while crossroad left turns use both protected and
permissive phases. The major difference among signal timing plans of the six sites is the
off ramp exclusive right turn phase. For the off ramps with exclusive right turn phases,
left and right turns are controlled separately by two different signal head (shown in
Figure 4).
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
Crash Type and Crash Severity
There were 363 crashes which occurred at the six sites during the five year study
period. Among the 363 crashes, 239 (65.84%) were property damage only crashes and
124 crashes (34.16%) involved some sort of an injury. As presented in Table 4, rear-end
crashes and angle crashes were the two major types of crashes. There were 182 (50.14%)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1040
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rear-end crash and 93 (25.12%) angle crashes. Compared with conventional signalized
intersections whose rear-end crashes are approximately 40 percent of total crashes (Yan
et al., 2008), interchange ramp terminals have a higher percentage of rear-end crashes.
One reason for this is that operating a vehicle at an interchange ramp terminal is more
complicated and drivers have more decisions to make at an interchange ramp terminal
area than a conventional intersection area. A prior study indicates most rear-end crash at
signalized intersections occur when two successive drivers approaching the intersection
make conflicting decisions when the yellow signal appears (Yan et al., 2008). With the
number of decisions increasing, the possibility that two drivers will make conflicting
decisions also increases.

Table 4. Movement at Fault for Different Crash Type.

Slowing Changing
Going
Crash Type Left Turn Right Turn Down or Lane or Other Total
Straight
Stopped Merging
81 4 22 71 4 0 182
Rear-End
(44.5%) (2.2%) (12.1%) (39.0%) (2.2%) (0%) (100%)
50 33 3 7 0 0 93
Angle
(53.8%) (35.5%) (2.2%) (7.5%) (0%) (0%) (100%)
13 18 3 2 7 1 44
Sideswipe
(29.5%) (40.9%) (6.8%) (4.5%) (15.9%) (2.3%) (100%)
9 6 9 3 1 2 30
No Collision
(30.0%) (20.0%) (30.0%) (10.0%) (3.3%) (6.7%) (100%)
1 2 0 0 0 0 3
Head On
(33.3%) (66.7%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (100%)
6 1 3 1 0 0 11
Other
(54.5%) (9.1%) (27.3%) (9.1%) (0%) (0%) (100%)
160 64 40 84 12 3 363
All Crashes
(44.1%) (17.6%) (11.0%) (23.1%) (3.3%) (0.8%) (100%)

Movement Contribution
In order to better understand the feature of interchange ramp terminal crashes,
the movements for at fault vehicles (according to police report) were summarized and
shown in Table 4. Except for going straight, which is the most frequent movement type,
slowing down and stopped (39.0%) is the most frequent movement at fault for a rear-end
crash; and left turning (35.5%) is the most frequent movement at fault for an angle crash.
When left turning is at fault, approximately 50 percent (33 out of 64) of crashes were
angle crashes; and 84.5 percent (71 out of 84) were rear-end crashes.
There were 50 angle crashes with going straight at faults. Among these, drivers
going straight disregarded traffic control in 23 crashes and failed to yield in another
seven crashes. Additionally, in 30 of the 50 angle crashes, the other vehicle that was
involved in the crash was making a left turn. There are 81 rear-end crashes with a going
straight movement at fault. And in 53 out of 81 crashes, the other vehicle that was
involved in the crash was slowing down or stopped.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1041
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Logically, left turning can lead to angle crashes, and slowing down or stopped
leads to rear-end crashes. Considering that rear-end and angle crashes share about 75
percent of total crashes at these ramp terminals, left turning and slowing down or
stopped should have a substantial effect on crash frequency. As slowing down or
stopped relates to clearance and change intervals, clearance and change intervals, i.e.,
yellow and all-red interval, can be inferred to have some impact on crash frequency.

Table 5. Crash Type for Interchange Ramp Terminals with or without Off Ramp
Exclusive Right Turn Phase.
No Head
Rear-End Angle Sideswipe Other Total
Interchange Group Collision On
Without off ramp
exclusive right 105 49 28 26 2 7 217
turn phase (48.4%) (22.6%) (22.5%) (12.0%) (0.9%) (3.25) (100%)
(ID1,2,4,6)
With off ramp
77 44 16 4 1 4 146
exclusive right
(52.7%) (30.1%) (11.0%) (2.7%) (0.7%) (2.7%) (100%)
turn phase (ID3,5)
182 93 44 30 3 11 363
All Sites
(50.1%) (25.6%) (12.1%) (8.3%) (0.8%) (3.0%) (100%)

Effect of Exclusive Right Phase

Within the six interchanges, four interchanges have no off ramp with an
exclusive right turn phase, one interchange (ID 5) has one off ramp with an exclusive
right turn phase, and one interchange (ID 3) has an exclusive right turn phase for both
off ramps. To show the effect of the off ramp exclusive right turn phase, six interchanges
were divided into two groups: with and without an off ramp exclusive right turn phase.
As shown in Table 5, the group with an off ramp had a higher percentage of rear-end
crashes and a lower percentage of angle crashes. Investigating the movement for at fault
vehicles, it is found that right tuning at fault crashes had a lower percentage at ramp
terminals with an off ramp exclusive right turn phase (8.9%) than ramp terminals
without (12.4%). Further, looking at these crashes with right turn vehicle at fault, it is
found that ramp terminals with an off ramp exclusive right turn phase (0 angle and 8
rear-end out of 13 crashes) had a lower percentage of angle crashes and a higher
percentage of rear-end crashes than ramps terminals without (14 angle and 3 rear-end
out of 27 crashes). By considering different geometric conditionions for these two
groups of interchanges, it can be inferred that off ramp exclusive right turn phases can
transform some angle crashes near the off ramp into rear-end crashes which are less
severe, as shown in Figure 5.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1042
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Figure 5. Crash and conflict type at off ramps.

Table 6. Crash Type for Interchange Ramp Terminals with or without Adequate
Yellow Interval.
Interchange No
Group Rear-End Angle Sideswipe Collision Head On Other Total
Without
adequate yellow 154 82 29 19 2 11 297
interval (51.9%) (27.6%) (9.8%) (6.4%) (0.7%) (3.7%) (100%)
(ID2,3,5,6)
With
adequate 28 11 15 11 1 0 66
yellow interval (42.4%) (16.7%) (22.7%) (16.7%) (1.5%) (0%) (100%)
(ID1,4)
182 93 44 30 3 11 363
All Crashes
(50.1%) (25.6%) (12.1%) (8.3%) (0.8%) (3.0%) (100%)

Effect of Yellow Interval

The yellow intervals at the six pairs of ramp terminals range between 3.5 s and
4.5 s. Compared with the ITE recommended yellow interval, four out of six sites had
inadequate yellow intervals. Comparing the two group of sites (with or without adequate
yellow intervals, as shown in Table 6), the group without adequate yellow intervals has a
higher crash percentage in both rear-end and angle crashes than those with an adequate
yellow interval (rear-end crash 51.9% vs. 42.4%; angle crash 27.6% vs. 16.7%). This
implies that rear-end and angle crashes are influenced by the yellow interval.
Considering that rear-end and angle crashes are the major two crash type, yellow
intervals do have an impact on crashes at ramp terminals.
MODEL DEVELOPING AND INTERPRETATION
Generalized linear regression models were used to develop the crash frequency
model. The developed model is shown as
Ecrash  a  VE exp  c  Ydif  d  ARdif  eRTdummy  f  Sterminal 
b
Ecrash is the expected
.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1043
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crash frequency; and a,b,c,d,e,f are the coefficients or constants. Independent variables
are introduced as following:
(1) VE  AADTramp1  AADTcrd 1  AADTramp 2  AADTcrd 2 : volume exposure,
reflecting the actual effect of volume. AADTramp1 and AADTramp2 represent the AADT of
two off ramps, AADTcrd1 and AADTcrd2 represent the AADT of crossroads at the two
ends of ramp terminals.
 Va 
(2) Ydif  Yobserved  YITE  Yobserved   Tpr   : difference between
 2d r  2 gGr 
observed yellow intervals and the ITE recommended yellow intervals. dr is the
deceleration rate (10 ft/s2); g is the gravitational acceleration and equal to 32.2 ft/s2; Gr is
the approach grade (ft/ft); Tpr is the driver perception-reaction time and equal to 1.0 s;
and Va is the speed of a vehicle approaching the intersection (ft/s) and here equal to the
speed limit.
SL
(3) ARdif  ARobserved  ARITE  ARobserved  : difference between observed all-
Va
red intervals and ITE recommended all-red intervals. S is the actual moving path length
(ft) and here refers to left turn curve length; L is the vehicle length and equal to 20 ft; Va
is the speed (ft/s) of the vehicle making movement and here assumes a left turning
moving at speed limit. It should be noted that only the crossroad left turn all-red
intervals are considered here, since preliminary analysis has shown that a left turn is the
most dangerous movement. Also, off ramp left turns are in protected only, while
crossroad left turns are in both protected and permissive.
(4) RTdummy: the dummy variable shows whether or not an off ramp has an
exclusive right turn phase. If any one of the two off ramps has exclusive right turn phase,
the dummy variable will be 1, otherwise 0.
(5) Sterminal: is the Spacing between two ramp terminals (ft).
For total rear-end and angle crashes, three different models are developed. By
using the stepwise regression approach, the model results were presented in Table 7.

Table 7. Model Results for All Crashes, Rear-End Crashes and Angle Crashes.
Variables All Crashes Rear-End Crashes Angle Crashes
Coefficient P-value Coefficient P-value Coefficient P-value
Contant,(lna) -21.809 0.000 -15.129 0.000 -26.572 0.000
ln(VE) 0.9386 0.000 0.6585 0.000 1.0067 0.000
Ydif -1.8419 0.007 -2.3424 0.011 -3.504 0.007
RTdummy -1.3205 0.000 -0.9844 0.013 -2.078 0.001
spacing 0.014308 0.000 0.009803 0.001 0.01985 0.000
ARdif -0.988 0.000 -0.8944 0.012 -1.8502 0.001
R-sq 0.893 0.810 0.844
R-sq(adj) 0.871 0.769 0.800
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1044
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The negative coefficient for the yellow interval difference indicates that the crash
frequency will decrease as the difference in the yellow interval increases (when the
observed yellow interval is longer than ITE recommended). Further, the crash frequency
will increase as the difference in yellow interval increases (when the observed yellow
interval is shorter than ITE recommended value). This result is the same as conventional
intersections and has been proven by previous research (Zador et al., 1985; Bonneson et
al., 2006; Zimmerman et al., 2005; Wang et al., 2007). Different coefficient values of
yellow interval difference for total, rear-end, and angle crashes indicate that yellow
interval difference has different effects on total, rear-end, and angle crash frequency.
With everything else constant, based on the model in Table 7, increasing the yellow
interval by 1.0 s will decrease about 84 percent (equal to
-1.8419
e -1) of total crashes. Previous research shows that for conventional intersections, a
1.0 s increase in the yellow interval will lead to a reduction of 40 percent of total crashes
(Bonneson et al., 2006). This difference indicates that yellow intervals may have a more
significant effect on interchange ramp terminals than conventional intersections.
Furthermore, the absolute coefficient value for yellow intervals is larger than all-red
intervals. This indicates that the marginal effect of the yellow interval is greater than the
all-red interval.
The negative coefficient of the all-red interval indicates that an all-red interval
has a similar effect as the yellow interval. The crash frequency will decrease as the all-
red interval difference increases when the observed all-red interval is longer than the
ITE recommended value. And it increases as the all-red interval difference increases
when the observed all-red interval is shorter than the ITE recommended value. If all
other situations remain constant, increasing the all-red interval by 1.0 s will lead to an
approximately 62 percent (equal to e-0.988-1) reduction in total crashes. Additionally, as
the absolute value of the all-red interval coefficient for an angle crash (1.8502) is larger
than a rear-end crash (0.8944), the all-red interval has a larger marginal effect on an
angle crash. The reasons for this different effect includes the following: (1) red light
running has a larger probability of causing angle crashes than rear-end crashes; (2) all-
red intervals used in this model only include crossroad left turns, which are a major
contributing movement for angle crashes.
Considering an off ramp exclusive right turn phase, the negative coefficient
indicates that ramp terminals having off ramps with an exclusive right turn phase will
have smaller crash frequency than those without (if all other conditions keep constant).
The larger absolute value of the coefficient for angle crashes indicates that an off ramp
exclusive right turn phase has a larger effect on angle crash. This result is consistent
with preliminary analysis.
For the effect of terminal spacing, the positive coefficient indicates that as the
terminal spacing between two terminals increases, the crash frequency increases.
However, due to the low absolute value, the effect is not substantial. Different values of
coefficients for rear-end crashes and angle crashes indicate the different effect of
terminal spacing on these two types of crashes. With the terminal spacing increasing,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1045
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two ramp terminals are more separated and more similar to two separated conventional
intersections, having a higher percentage of angle crashes and a lower percentage of
rear-end crashes.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
A safety performance function for signalized diamond interchange ramp
terminals was developed by using data collected from six diamond interchanges. The
major factors considered include volume, clearance interval, off ramp exclusive right
turn phase, and spacing between two terminals. After the analysis, the following
conclusions have been researched:
(1) Rear-end and angle crashes are the two major types of crashes at signalized diamond
interchange ramp terminals. Left turns and change in speed, i.e., braking, are the
most critical movements contributing to ramp terminal crashes.
(2) The off ramp exclusive right turn phase, combined with its specific geometric
conditions, can transform some kind of angle crash related conflicts into rear-end
crash related conflicts. Thus, if the interchange ramp terminals have an off ramp
exclusive right turn phase, the possibility of rear-end crash increases while the
possibility of angle crash decreases.
(3) For yellow and all-red intervals, the crash frequency will increase with the
deficiency of yellow or all-red interval increases when comparing with
recommended the yellow or all-red interval value calculated by the ITE equation.
The generalized linear model results indicate that a 1.0 s increase in the yellow
interval will decrease about 84 percent of total crashes, while that number for a 1.0 s
increase in all-red intervasl is 62 percent.
(4) With terminal spacing increasing, the crash frequency will increase; and for angle
crash and rear-end crash, the safety effects of terminal spacing are different.
For further research, more diamond interchanges should be analyzed to validate
the conclusion received as 6 interchanges may not be enough. Also, SPFs for other type
of interchange ramp terminals should be created.
REFERENCES
Bonneson, J.A., Son, H.J. (2003) “Prediction of Expected Red-Light-Running
Frequency at Urban Intersections.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of
the Transportation Research Board. No. 1830, pp. 38-47.
Bonneson, J.A, Zimmerman, K.H. (2004) “Effect of Yellow-Interval Timing on the
Frequency of Red-Light Violations at Urban Intersections.” Transportation
Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. No. 1865, pp.
20-27.
Bonneson, J.A., Zimmerman, K. (2006) “Identifying Intersections with Potential for Red
Light-Related Safety Improvement.” Transportation Research Record: Journal
of the Transportation Research Board. No. 1953, pp. 128-136.
Gates, T.J., Noyce, D.A., Laracuente, L., Nordheim, E.V. (2007) “Analysis of Driver
Behavior in Dilemma Zones at Signalized Intersections.” Transportation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1046
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. No. 2030, pp.
29-39.
Gluck, J., Levinson, H. S., and Stover, V. G. (1999) NCHRP Report 420:Impacts of
Access Management Techniques, TRB, Washington D.C.
Harwood, D.W., Bauer, K.M., Richard, K.R., Gilmore, D.K., Persaud, B. and Lyon, C.
(2004) Development of SPFs for SafetyAnalyst Interim Tools—Technical
Memorandum. Prepared by Midwest Research Institute for the Federal Highway
Administration.
Parajuli, B., Persaud, B., Lyon, C., Munro, J. (2006) “Safety Performance Assessment of
Freeway Interchanges, Ramps, and Ramp Terminals.” Annual Conference &
Exhibition of the Transportation Association of Canada, 2006 (CD-ROM),
Transportation Association of Canada.
Retting, R.A., Ferguson, S.A., Farmer, C.M (2008) “Reducing red light running through
longer yellow signal timing and red light camera enforcement: Results of a field
investigation.” Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 40 No.1, 2008, pp. 327-
333.
Torbic, D.J., Harwood, D.W., Gilmore, D.K., Richard, K.R., Bared, J.G. (2007)
Interchange Safety Analysis Tool (ISAT): User Manual. Publication FHWA-
HRT-07-045. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation.
Torbic, D.J., Harwood, D.W., Gilmore, D.K., Richard, K.R., Bared, J.G. (2009), “Safety
Analysis of Interchanges.” Transportation Research Board 88th Annual Meeting
(CD-ROM). Transportation Research Board of National Academies, Washington
D.C.
Wang. X., Abdel-Aty, M. (2007) “Right-Angle Crash Occurrence at Signalized
Intersections.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation
Research Board. No. 2019, pp. 156-168.
Wisconsin Department of Transportation (2007) 2006 Wisconsin Highway Traffic
Volume Data.
Yan, X., Abdel-Aty, M., Radwan, E., Wang, X., Chilakapati, P. (2008) “Assessing Rear-
End Crash Risk at Signalized Intersections Based on the Driving Behavior.”
Transportation Research Board 87th Annual Meeting (CD-ROM, paper 08-0044).
Transportation Research Board of National Academies, Washington D.C.
Zador, P., Stein, H., Shaprio, S., Tarnoff, P. (1985) “Effect of Signal Timing on Traffic
Flow and Crashes at Signalized Intersections.” Transportation Research Record:
Journal of the Transportation Research Board. No. 1010, pp. 1-8.
Zhou, H., Williams, K.M., Farah, W. (2008) “Methodology to Evaluate the Effects of
Access Control near Freeway Interchange Areas.” Journal of Transportation
Engineering, Vol. 134, No. 12, ASCE, pp 504-510.
Zimmerman, K., Bonneson, J.A. (2005) “Investigating of Time into Red for Red Light-
Related Crashes.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the
Transportation Research Board. No. 1922, pp. 21-28.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1047
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How to Select the Appropriate Safety Measurement to Identify a Hotspot

Wen CHENG1, Xuesong WANG2, and Kekoa ANDERSON3

1
Ph.D., P.E., Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, California State
Polytechnic University, Pomona, 3801 W. Temple Ave., Pomona, CA 91768; PH
(909) 869-2957; FAX (909) 869-4342; email: wcheng@csupomona.edu
2
Ph.D., Associate Professor, School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji
University, 4800 Cao'an Road, 201804, Jiading District, Shanghai, China; PH (86)
21-65983946; FAX (86) 21-65982897; email: wangxs@tongji.edu.cn
3
P.E., Divisional Vice President, Tetra Tech Inc., 16241 Laguna Canyon Road, Suite
200, Irvine, CA 92618; PH (949) 727-7099; FAX (949) 727-7077; email:
kekoa.anderson@tetratech.com

ABSTRACT
As the first and crucial step in improving the overall safety of a road network,
hot spots identification (HSID) has been the focus of many research efforts. In
general, most of the HSID methods employ either crash counts or crash rates to
screen hazardous locations. However, there is a lack of empirical comparison of the
two crash statistics in terms of their identification performances when dealing with
HSID. To quantify the performance difference of the two crash statistics, both real
road section accident data and experimentally derived simulated data are used in this
paper. Three different tests are employed to evaluate different aspects of
identification performance. Additionally, various levels of confidence are also
explored across different situations. The results illustrate that crash counts
significantly outperforms crash rates in identifying hot spots. The findings are in
agreement with the other theoretical derivations shown in previous studies.

INTRODUCTION
Roadway safety is a serious national public health issue. To combat
efficiently the high risk in the highways, the Intermodal Surface Transportation
Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991, along with the subsequent Transportation
Efficiency Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21), and the ISTEA requires each state to
develop a work plan outlining strategies to implement Safety Management Systems
(NCHRP, 2003). In general, five basic interrelated components are contained in
these systems: identification of “hot spots” (also called “sites with promise”, “crash
prone locations”, “high risk locations,” or “blackspots”) requiring safety
investigation, diagnosis of safety problems, selection of feasible treatments for
potential treatment candidates, prioritization of treatments giving limited budgets,
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and post-treatment evaluation(s) of project effectiveness. As the first step of the

safety management, hot spots identification (hereafter referred to as HSID) aims to
select a relative small subgroup from a large population, members of which are then
subjected to a more detailed and costly examination. The screening efficiency plays
a pivotal role in fulfilling the safety management objectives in that it enables the
proper direction of resources to locations in the subsequent steps.
In addition to the mandate to spend safety funds wisely, there is professional
pressure to conduct rigorous analyses and to be held accountable for ‘good number
crunching’. Due to both public and professional pressures and the import associated
with motor vehicle injuries and fatalities, hot spots identification has been the
standard practice in the jurisdictions at varying levels (federal, state, and local)
throughout the US, and numerous methods have been provided. In general, most of
the HSID methods employ either crash counts or crash rates to screen the hazardous
locations. Even though theoretical comparison of crash count and rate have been
provided in previous research, there is a lack of empirical comparison of the two
crash statistics in terms of their identification performances when dealing with HSID.
To fill this gap, the main objective of this paper is to compare the identification
performance of crash count and rate under different conditions—using both real road
section accident data and experimentally derived simulated data. Three different
tests are employed to evaluate different aspects of identification performance. In
addition, various levels of confidence are also examined.
This paper first presents the overview of various HSID methods. Then the
real road section crash data and the procedures to generate the simulated data are
described. The comparison results follow the description of three performance
evaluation tests used in one previous study. Finally, the conclusions and
recommendations are provided.
OVERVIEW OF HSID METHOD DEVELOPMENT HISTORY
Due to the significance of identifying the right hazardous locations, a
substantial number of HSID have been designed and proposed in the past. The first
statistic identification method can be traced back to the 1950’s (See Norden et al.,
1956). Overall, these methods can be divided into crash count-based or crash rate-
based methods.
Simple ranking is the most straightforward among the variants of count or
rate methods. This method ranks the hot spots by sorting the observed crash rates
and locations with top rates screened out for detailed engineering study. It is only
efficient for ranking locations of the same type. The number of hazardous locations
determined is somewhat arbitrary, often depending on the amount of safety funds
available. Because of the ease of calculation and application, simple ranking of
observed crash counts or rates is still widely used across the various agencies.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1049
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The more sophisticated method of utilizing the crash count or rate is the
quality control method. This method is borrowed from industrial statistical quality
control techniques, initially developed to dynamically control the quality of
industrial production. In traffic safety, application of this method assumes that crash
occurrences are rare events and follow Poisson distribution or can be approximated
by normal distribution. This technique was first introduced by Norden et al. (1956),
who provided procedures to establish the upper and lower control limits over
system-wide crash rates. Deacon et al. (1975) later presented both the concepts of
critical count and critical rate. The subsequent studies on quality control are mostly
based on crash rate (FHWA, 1980; Stokes and Mutabazi, 1996).
The above methods assume that directly observed crash statistics serve as
good safety estimators of an entity. Some past research (Hauer, 1980; Hauer and
Persaud, 1982; Persaud, 1988; Wright et al., 1988), however, has shown that this
estimator is usually subject to the regression-to-the-mean (RTM) phenomenon, and
therefore introduces some bias to hazardous locations identification. The EB
approach, in contrast, proves efficient in dealing with the RTM bias by accounting
for both the history of crash occurrence for the site of interest and the crash
information of similar sites. The applications of EB have been reported in numerous
papers. In contrast to the quality control method, most of the proposed EB
approaches are based on the crash count (Hauer and Persaud, 1984; Hauer, 1986;
Hauer and Persaud, 1987; Hauer and Lovell, 1988; Hauer et al., 1991). The only EB
technique based on the crash rate is presented by Higle and Witkowski (1988).
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION TEST
Compared with the large number of studies focused on the development of
various HSID methods, considerably less research has been dedicated to comparing
the performance of various methods. Cheng and Washington (2008), who proposed
five quantitative HSID evaluation tests, provide one of the most important. Three of
these tests (the Site Consistency Test, the Method Consistency Test, and the Total
Rank Differences Test) are utilized in this paper to compare the identification
performance of crash counts and crash rates. The detailed assumptions, procedures,
and advantages associated with each test can be referred to the authors. The
following presents only succinct descriptions of these tests.
T1: Site Consistency Test
The Site Consistency Test (T1) is used to measure the ability of a HSID
method to consistently identify a site as high risk over subsequent observation
periods. The test rests on the premise that a site identified as high risk during time
period 1 should also reveal inferior safety performance in a subsequent time period 2,
given that no significant changes have occurred at the site and given that the site is
in fact high risk. T1 simply requires a comparison of the sum of observed crashes
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1050
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occurring on nα high risk sites during future time period i + 1 identified by method j
(during time period i) to crashes occurring at high risk sites (in time period i + 1)
identified by other ‘competing’ HSID methods.
T2: Method Consistency Test
In the Site Consistency Test previously discussed, crash counts in Period 2
are used as benchmarks to compare different HSID methods. The underlying
assumption is that the identification performance of the HSID methods is revealed
through the safety performance of the corresponding identified hot spots. The
Method Consistency Test, in contrast, is designed to evaluate a method’s
performance by measuring the number of the same hot spots identified in both
periods. Inasmuch as the two periods are close in time, it is assumed that road
sections are in the same or similar underlying operational state (similar traffic
volumes, driver populations, geometric designs, weather fluctuations, etc.) and that
their expected safety performance remains virtually unaltered over the two periods.
Under this homogeneity assumption, a good HSID method will identify the same set
of hot spots across two different periods. The greater the number of hot spots that
are identified in both periods the more reliable and consistent is the performance of
HSID method.
Analytically, test T2 is simply the intersection of ranked sites k identified in
subsequent time periods i and i + 1 that are high risk, or:
T 2 j = {kn −nα , kn −nα +1 ,....., kn } j ,i ∩ {kn −nα , kn −nα +1 ,....., kn } j ,i +1 , (1)

where terms are as defined previously. Note that only sites identified in the top
threshold α are compared.
T3: Total Rank Differences Test
In the Method Consistency Test (T2), the number of consistently identified
hot spots common to both periods are used to measure a method’s reliability. The
Total Rank Differences Test, building on T2, takes into account the rankings of the
safety performances of road sections in the two periods. For example, consider a
group of 100 road sections: among them is one site whose AR ranks 1st in Period 1
and ranks 10th in Period 2. If the top 10 sites are identified as hot spots, then the AR
method has identified a site in both periods, even though the rankings have changed
between periods. The Total Rank Differences Test, T3, is proposed to account for
the rankings. The test is conducted by calculating the sum of total rank differences
of the hazardous road sections identified across the two periods. The smaller the
total rank difference, the more consistent the HSID method is on this test—
reflecting consistent ranking of sites across periods. As for the prior tests, this test is
also based on the assumption that no safety treatments are implemented on the road
sections and the underlying safety of the road section during the two periods is
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1051
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constant. Hence, it is of great importance to ensure all the data outliers (i.e., road
sections that are treated during Period 2) have been identified and removed when
conducting this test.
In equation form, this test statistic is given as:

∑ (ℜ ( k ) − ℜ ( k ) )
n
T 3j = j ,i j ,i +1 (1)
k = n − nα

where ℜ is the rank of site k in period i for method j. Note that the difference in
ranks is summated over all identified sites for threshold level α for period i.
DATA DESCRIPTION
To provide more reliable results of performance comparison, both real crash
data and experimentally derived data are used in this paper. The description of these
two types of data is shown as below.
Real crash data
The real crash data was obtained from the Arizona Department of
Transportation (ADOT). The data consists of both highway and crash data. The
highway data contains information regarding functional classification, speed limit,
section length, pavement type, etc. The crash data contains detailed crash
information such as crash locations, accident times, prior events, involved vehicles,
and so on. For each of the three years from 2000 to 2002, crash data was extracted
for road segments; intersection-related crashes were excluded.
For the purpose of comparing alternate HSID approaches, the 3-year crash
data was separated into two time periods, Period 1 (Year 2000) crashes and Period 2
(Year 2001-2002) crashes. Within the state of Arizona, the highway system is
broken down into reference sections, generally delimited by intersections; thus the
road section lengths vary. To make road sections comparable, the four HSID
methods are applied on the basis of crash density (i.e., crashes/km)—equivalent to
an offset effect for length. Thus, the crash count method uses crashes/km-year to
identify road sections; the crash rate method employs crashes/million-km to flag
dangerous sections.
The highway data consists of 12 different functional classifications of
roadways. The description and the corresponding codes used in the database are
shown in Table 1.
Summary information for roads of various functional classifications is shown
in Table 2, and includes total section lengths of each classification, total accidents,
etc. The number of road sections—2, 10 and 3 respectively—for the three
classifications rural local (9), urban collector (17) and urban local are shown (19).
Due to small sample sizes, the crashes for these three classifications of road sections
are not included in this paper.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1052
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Table 1. Functional Classification Codes.

Code Descriptions Code Descriptions
RURAL URBAN
1 Principal Arterial- 11 Principal Arterial-Interstate
Interstate
2 Principal Arterial-Other 12 Principal Arterial-Other Freeways
&Expressways
6 Minor Arterial 14 Principal Arterial-Other
7 Major Collector 16 Minor Arterial
8 Minor Collector 17 Collector
9 Local 19 Local

Table 2. Statistics for Roads of Various Functional Classifications.

Functional Number of Total Lengths Crashes Average AADT
Classification Sections (km) (2000-2002)
1 403 996.1 8122 23810
2 441 1115.1 7012 7603
6 436 1132.1 5261 5483
7 628 1856.1 5285 2637
8 100 365.4 416 684
9 12 22.1 29 3194
11 207 171.6 11999 106338
12 165 199.5 9557 95931
14 429 270.6 9685 17407
16 164 139.7 2282 11499
17 10 7.5 136 4144
19 3 4.4 13 433
Note: The functional classification codes are provided in Table 1.
Experimentally Derived Simulated Data
Cheng and Washington (2005) presented the method showing how to
simulate crash data based on real crash data. Interested readers can refer to the
authors for details. Only the general simulation procedures are shown as follows:
1. Generate mean crash frequencies from real data. Crash dataset of a collection of
sites under consideration, which represent a range of on-site crash data, are first
obtained. The means of crashes across the sites are then calculated. The crash
means are denoted TPM’s for “True” Poisson Means and are assumed to
represent a state of “ perfect knowledge,” say, the long-term expected crashes at
each location under its current configuration. In the paper, the average crash/year
of 3-year period is calculated as a TPM.
2. From the TPM’s generate random Poisson samples. A set of independent
random numbers are generated from each TPM by using the Poisson distribution
(Morin, 1967), which generally is agreed to be the perfect probabilistic model
for fitting crash counts of each location and serves as the basis for numerous
crash regression models. The random numbers represent OBSERVED data for
various observation periods (e.g. years). In general, the choice of the number of
generated Poisson counts for each location rests with the safety analysts for their
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desired analytical needs. In this paper, sixteen crash counts are created for each
site. The first eight represent Period 1 and the latter eight represent the Period 2
crash data. A snapshot of the simulated data is illustrated in the Table 3. The
traffic volume in the real crash database is used to calculate the simulated rate
for each site.

Table 3. Simulated crash counts for 30 sites and 16 observation periods. 

OBSERVATION PERIOD
TPM
SITE  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 4 5 1 4 1 2 7 4 3 4 4 2 1 1 5 5 6
2 8 5 9 8 6 8 4 9 9 5 4 8 8 9 9 13 8
3 8 12 7 10 5 5 7 11 8 8 8 11 6 6 7 8 7
4 9 12 9 10 16 8 12 7 9 11 8 10 8 16 11 6 8
5 9 10 13 12 8 9 6 12 10 9 9 4 5 12 11 11 4
6 10 15 4 6 10 4 17 6 11 12 7 10 10 15 6 17 10
7 10 8 5 10 8 13 10 11 7 12 10 8 9 9 6 9 10
8 10 7 8 11 14 10 12 7 11 12 11 12 13 7 7 7 11
9 12 13 17 8 14 12 10 16 10 7 15 17 9 11 15 14 15
10 12 10 9 13 13 6 12 18 11 15 12 12 12 13 12 13 9
11 12 9 10 10 14 15 12 7 14 6 12 11 19 9 17 10 18
12 12 11 14 14 9 16 7 15 3 10 13 9 11 7 2 12 14
13 12 15 15 16 13 8 12 13 16 16 12 15 11 15 12 14 9
14 12 14 10 10 11 15 15 12 13 14 15 13 14 11 13 17 19
15 12 11 12 12 8 12 13 12 7 9 11 9 9 9 12 4 9
16 13 8 17 13 8 12 11 17 15 16 13 12 15 16 12 14 19
17 13 9 13 16 16 11 8 6 18 12 8 7 11 12 12 17 15
18 13 10 18 15 16 10 15 10 16 17 10 6 8 8 10 13 6
19 13 14 13 17 11 6 11 18 15 11 17 16 19 13 11 15 14
20 13 7 4 13 11 12 10 17 19 6 7 12 15 7 15 14 12
21 14 16 17 12 18 13 17 12 11 7 13 15 10 18 14 17 19
22 15 15 18 21 15 15 14 13 21 14 13 20 13 12 19 16 16
23 15 11 13 16 12 12 16 10 16 19 20 21 16 13 19 11 16
24 15 9 16 16 11 14 12 15 18 11 16 14 29 11 12 19 14
25 16 18 12 15 9 19 18 14 11 19 15 18 14 18 18 14 20
26 17 22 10 19 12 15 19 18 10 11 17 20 16 15 11 10 15
27 18 14 21 9 19 16 17 19 18 18 14 16 28 19 18 19 10
28 18 8 20 19 5 16 18 20 28 16 17 19 14 15 14 18 15
29 19 26 19 18 21 17 29 12 22 25 15 23 11 19 20 15 24
30 20 22 18 23 21 23 19 26 22 16 20 19 15 14 19 13 15
Note: SITE=number of site, e.g. intersection, road segment, etc.; TPM=true underlying safety of site
or Poisson mean; SIMULATED DATA=observed crash count in observation period; Shaded cells
represent ‘truly hazardous’ locations (sites 19 and 20).
TEST RESULTS
The three tests (T1 through T3), previously described, are used to assess the
relative performance of methods using crash count or rate. Considering the main
objective is to test the identification performance, the most straightforward method
or simple ranking of the two statistics is employed.
The evaluation experiment uses the following procedure, closely mimicking
how reactive safety management programs are conducted in practice:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1054
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1. Road sections (intersections, ramps, 2-lane rural roads, etc.) are segregated so
that the safety of similar sites can be fairly compared. In this evaluation, the
analysis is based on nine separate functional classifications of road sections.
2. For each method, ‘similar’ road sections are sorted in descending order of
estimated safety (noting that the crash count and rate methods rank sites
according to different criteria).
3. Sections with the highest rankings are flagged as sites with promise (in practice
these sites will be further scrutinized). Typically, a threshold is assigned
according to safety funds available for improvement, such as the top 10% of
sites. In this evaluation, both the top 10% and 5% locations are used as
experimental values.
The test results described and shown in the following tables are the
accumulated results based on an assessment of the 2 HSID methods using 3 different
test statistics for 9 functional classes of roads in Arizona. The results are discussed
in terms of the HSID methods performance in the 3 statistical tests.
T1: Site Consistency Test Results
Using test T1, it is shown in Table 4 that the crash count method outperforms
the crash rate in identifying both the top 10% and 5% of hot spots with higher
average crashes. Both real crash data and simulated data illustrated the same
phenomenon. The difference of number of crashes in period 2 ranges from 28% to
46% across the different situations. The results indicate that the crash count method
has a higher ability than the crash rate method in consistently identifying a site as
high risk over subsequent observation periods.
Table 4. Accumulated Results of Site Consistency Test (T1) of the Two Crash
Statistics for All Classifications of Highways. 
Real Arizona Crash Data Simulated Data
α = 0.90 α = 0.95 α = 0.90 α = 0.95
Method Average Average Average Average
Average Average
Crashes Crashes Crashes Crashes
Crashes Crashes Crashes Crashes
2000 2001- 2000 2001-
Period 1 Period 2 Period 1 Period 2
2002 2002
Crash
8276 9611 5639 6303 7954 9586 5584 6458
Count
Crash
6899 7556 4257 4313 7005 7481 4356 4587
Rate
α = 0.90 and α = 0.95 represent the cases of top 10% and 5% hazardous sections.
Notes: 1.

T2: The Method Consistency Test Results

Table 5 shows the number of similarly identified hot spots identified by the
two crash statistics over the two periods. In the situation of the real crash rate
method, the crash count method is superior in this test in identifying a larger number
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1055
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of the same hot spots in both cases of α = 0.90 and α = 0.95, with 148 and 63 sites
respectively. In other words, the crash count method identified 148 sites in 2000 that
were also identified as hot spots in 2001-2003. The crash rate method performed
poorer with a lower number of consistent hot spots identified in the two periods. The
utilization of simulated data illustrates the same finding, with the crash count
identifying a greater number of the same hazardous locations.
Table 5 also shows the differences between percentages (in parenthesis) of
different confidence levels for the two methods. There is a consistent drop in
percentages as threshold values drop. The explanation is that the top sites suffer
from greater random fluctuations in crashes; thus the higher the threshold the larger
the random fluctuations, and the likelihood of not being identified in a prior year.

Table 5. Accumulated Results of Method Consistency Test (T2) of the Two

Crash Statistics for All Classifications of Highways.
Real Arizona Crash Data Simulated Crash Data
Method
α = 0.90 α = 0.95 α = 0.90 α = 0.95
Crash Count 148 (50.0%) 63 (42.0%) 153 (51.5%) 68 (45.3%)
Crash Rate 131 (44.0%) 49 (32.7%) 129 (43.6%) 45 (30%)
Notes: 1. α = 0.90 and α = 0.95 represent the cases of top 10% and 5% hazardous sections.
2. The number represents locations identified by crash count or rates in both periods, the
percent shown in parenthesis stands for the percentage of consistent hot spots, or the
percentage of hot spots identified in Period 1 that were also identified in Period 2.
T3: Total Rank Differences Test Results
Table 6 illustrates that the crash count method is vastly superior using the
Total Rank Differences Test. In both the cases of α = 0.90 and α = 0.95 under the
conditions of real and simulated crash data, the crash count method has significantly
smaller summed ranked differences by about 25% compared to the crash rate. This
result suggests that the crash count method is the better HSID method (of the 2
methods) for ranking sites consistently from period to period.
Table 6. Accumulated Results of Total Rank Differences Tests (T3) of the Two
Crash Statistics for All Classifications of Highways.
Real Arizona Crash Data Simulated Data
Method
α = 0.90 α = 0.95 α = 0.90 α = 0.95
Crash Count 29,602 15,357 27,608 14,459

Crash Rate 34,869 21,212 32,341 19,955

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Hot spot identification plays a pivotal role in enhancing roadway network
safety performance. Due to its great significance, a fairly extensive literature has
focused on the development of various HSID methods, which generally employ
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1056
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crash statistics of count or rate. Compared with the large number of HSID methods,
considerably less research has been dedicated to comparing the performance of
using crash counts or crash rates. The theoretical analysis of the two crash statistics
was provided by Mahalel (1986) and Hauer (1997). The authors state that, compared
with the crash count, the use of crash rates presents a potential error as it makes an
implicit assumption that safety performance functions between crashes and exposure
are linear for a category of sites. Thus far, there is still a lack of empirical study to
compare the identification performances of these two crash statistics. To fill this gap,
this paper has been designed to quantify their performance differences under
different situations: three identification evaluation tests, both real and simulated
crash data, and two different confidence levels. The results indicate that the crash
count method is consistently superior to the crash rate method. The following
advantages associated with crash count method are specifically identified:
1. The crash count method outperforms the crash rate method on the Site
Consistency Test (T1). That is, the crash count method identifies the sites in
period 1 that produced the higher number of crashes in period 2—
demonstrating better consistency.
2. The crash count method is superior to the crash rate method in terms of the
Method Consistency Test, T2. That is, the crash count method consistently
identified a larger intersection of sites across observation periods.
3. Compared with the Method Consistency Test, the Total Rank Differences
Test (T3) revealed pronounced benefits associated with the crash count
method. The crash count method outperformed the competing HSID method
by a wide margin on this criterion, showing great consistency in ranking sites
across observation periods.
The findings are in agreement with the previously mentioned theoretical
analysis regarding the relative performance of the two kinds of method. However,
the results observed in this paper require some caveat. The advantages associated
with the crash count method are based on Arizona crash data, and the relative
performances of HSID methods may change when using other crash data (this result
is possible but not expected). It is anticipated that road safety professionals can use
more different crash data to compare the performance of statistics of crash count and
rate methods, and therefore yield more reliable results.
REFERENCES
Cheng, W. and S. Washington. 2008. “New Criteria for Evaluating Hotspot
Identification Methods”. Transportation Research Record, Journal of the
Transportation Research Board 2083, 76-85.
Deacon, J.A., C. V. Zegeer, and R.C. Deen. 1975. Identification of hazardous rural
highway locations. Transportation Research Record 543; 16-33.
Hauer, E. 1980. Bias-by-selection: overestimation of the effectiveness of safety
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1057
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

countermeasures caused by the process of selection for treatment. Accident

Analysis and Prevention 12 (2); 113-117.
Hauer, E. 1982. Traffic conflicts and exposure. Accident Analysis and Prevention 14
(5); 359-364.
Hauer, E. and B.N. Persaud. 1982. Common bias in before-and-after comparisons
and its elimination. Transportation Research Record 905; 164-174.
Hauer, E. and B. N. Persaud. 1984. Problem of identifying hazardous locations using
accident data. Transportation Research Record 975; 36-43.
Hauer, E. 1986. On the estimation of the expected uumber of accidents. Accident
Analysis and Prevention 18 (1); 1-12.
Hauer, E. and B. N. Persaud. 1987. How to estimate the safety of rail-highway grade
crossings and the safety effect of warning devices. Transportation Research
Record 1114; 131-140.
Hauer, E., J.C.N. Ng, and J. Lovell. 1988. Estimation of safety at signalized
intersections. Transportation Research Record 1185; 48-61.
Hauer, E., B. N. Persaud, A. Smiley, and D. Duncan. 1991. Estimating the accident
potential of an Ontario driver. Accident Analysis and Prevention 23 (2/3);
133-152.
Hauer, E. 1997. Observational before-after studies in road safety. Tarrytown, NY;
PERGAMON.
Higle, J.L. and M.B. Hecht. 1989. A comparison of techniques for the identification
of hazardous locations. Transportation Research Record 1238; 10-19.
Mahalel, D. 1986. A note on accident risk. Transportation Research Record 1068;
85-89.
Norden, M., J.Orlansky, and H.Jacobs.1956. Application of statistical quality-control
techniques to analysis of highway-accident data. Highway Research Record
117; 17-31.
Persaud, B.N. 1988. Do traffic signals affect safety? Some methodological issues.
Transportation Research Record 1185; 37-47.
Stokes, R.W. and I. M. Mutabazi. 1996. Rate-quality control method of identifying
hazardous road locations. Transportation Research Record 1542; 44-48.
Wright, C.C., C.R. Abbess, and D.F. Jarrett. 1988. Estimating the regression-to-
mean effect associated with road accident black spot treatment: towards a
more realistic approach. Accident Analysis and Prevention 20 (3); 199-214.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1058
 
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE
 

Modeling Injury Severity in Work Zones using Ordered PROBIT Regression

Zhenyu WANG1, Jian J. LU2, Qing WANG3, Linjun LU4, and Zhao ZHANG5
1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida,
4202 Fowler Ave., ENB118, Tampa, FL 33620; PH (+1-813) 974- 8727; email:
zwang9@usf.edu
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida,
4202 Fowler Ave., ENB118, Tampa, FL 33620; PH (+1-813) 974- 5817; email:
jlu2@usf.edu
3
Jiangsu Nanjing Highway Scientific Institute, 54 Yang-Zhu Xiang, Nanjing,
Jiangsu 210006, China; PH (+86-025)-52644560; email: qing0511@gmail.com
4
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida,
4202 Fowler Ave., ENB118, Tampa, FL 33620; PH (+1-813) 974- 5817; email:
llu2@mail.usf.edu
5
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida,
4202 Fowler Ave., ENB118, Tampa, FL 33620; PH (+1-813) 974- 8727; email:
zzhang7@usf.edu

ABSTRACT
Work zone safety has become a very serious concern in traffic management
over the past several years in Florida. The disturbance of construction/maintenance
activities on normal traffic may result in traffic conflicts, crashes, and even severe
injuries. A clear understanding of the characteristics of work zone crashes is
necessary to address the existing safety problems in work zones. In this paper, an
injury severity model, utilizing the Ordered Probit Regression, was developed based
on the history work zone crash data collected in Florida, to investigate the factors
contributing to injury severity in work zones and to evaluate the impacts of the
contributing factors. These factors include roadway geometric design, environment,
traffic, and vehicle/driver characteristics. The results are valuable for developing
appropriate countermeasures to reduce the injury severity of work zone crashes.

INSTRUCTION
The definition of work zone in the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM, 2000)
is a segment of highway in which maintenance and construction operations impinge
on the number of lanes available to traffic or affect the operational characteristics of
traffic flowing through the segment. Work zones tend to be associated with
hazardous traffic conditions for both drivers and construction/maintenance workers
due to the disturbance of normal traffic. This condition may reduce traffic capacity,
increase the risk of traffic crashes, and even result in severe injuries. Work zone
safety has always been a high priority in highway systems, but remains
unsatisfactory in the United States. Improving work zone safety has become one of
the overwhelming challenges that traffic engineers and researchers have to confront.
Identifying existing safety problems in work zones is important for implementing
effective countermeasures to improve safety performance. A clear understanding of
the influence of various factors on the injury severity of work zone crashes, which is
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a critical criterion for evaluating social and economic impacts of work zone crashes,
is the key step to addressing the existing safety problems in work zones. These
factors may include driver characteristics, vehicle features, environmental conditions,
traffic, and/or roadway geometric design.
The main objectives of this paper are to identify the factors contributing to
the injury severity of work zone crashes and to address impacts of these factors on
the injury severity. For these purposes, an Ordered Probit (OP) model was developed
to predict the injury severity of work zone crashes based on the history crash data
collected in Florida. A literature review of the past research on work zone crashes is
followed by an introduction to the methodology adopted in this study. The next three
sections express data preparation, estimation results, and interpretations of the
developed model, respectively. Finally, conclusions are summarized in the last
section.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Many previous studies have been conducted to analyze highway work zone
safety in several states. These studies focused on examining the characteristics of
work zone crashes and evaluating the effectiveness of traffic control
countermeasures on traffic safety in work zones.
Hall and Lorenz (1989) investigated the crashes in work zones in New
Mexico from 1983 to 1985 by comparing the difference of crashes before and during
construction at same road sections. They concluded that the proportion of crashes
caused by following too close was much higher in during-work zone periods than in
before-work zone periods. Another conclusion was that improper traffic control was
the prevalent problem causing high crash rates in work zones.
Pigman and Agent (1990) studied the traffic data and traffic control devices
of twenty highway work zones for three years (1983-1986) in Kentucky, and found
that (1) most work zone crashes occur on interstate roads; (2) work zone crashes are
more severe than other crashes, especially at night or if a truck was involved; (3) the
dominant crash types are rear-end and same-direction-sideswipe; and (4) the
dominant contributing factor is following too close.
Ha and Nemeth (1995) conducted a study to identify the major cause and
effect relationships between work zone crashes and traffic controls in order to make
the first step towards development of effective work zone traffic control strategies.
Results of the study indicated that (1) the predominant type of crash was rear-end; (2)
improper traffic control was one of the safety problems in construction zones; (3)
involvement of trucks in crashes at crossovers was significant; (4) work zone crashes
were slightly less severe than other types of crashes; and (5) although work zone
crashes increased at night, they actually decreased in proportion to all crashes.
A study on the typical characteristics of multistate work zone crashes was
conducted by Chambless et al. (2002) to perform a set of comprehensive
comparisons of computerized work zone and non-work zone crash data in Alabama,
Michigan, and Tennessee. Researchers found that (1) 63% of work zone crashes take
place on interstate, US, and state roads, as compared to 37% of non-work zone
crashes; (2) 48% of work zone crashes occur on 45 mph and 55 mph speed zones, as
opposed to 34% of non-work zone crashes; and (3) “Misjudging stopping
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distance/following too close” accounted for 27% of the “prime contributing crash
circumstances” for work zone crashes, as opposed to 15% for non-work zone crashes.
Garber and Zhao (2002) studied the distribution of work zone crashes in
Virginia in terms of severity, crash type, and road type over four different locations
within the work zone. The results indicated that the activity area is the predominant
location for work zone crashes for all crash types, and the rear-end crashes are the
predominant type of crashes except for the terminate area, where the proportion of
angle crashes is significantly higher than other types.
Taxes, Hill et al. (2003) analyzed the characteristics of work zone fatalities
and then evaluated the effectiveness of existing work zone traffic safety
countermeasures. In this study, the logistic regression was implemented to examine
the effectiveness of traffic counter measures such as using an officer/flagman and
using a stop/go signal. Results of this study indicated that there was a significant
difference in crash type and driver error between daytime crashes and nighttime
crashes. This difference also existed between driver genders. In addition, commercial
truck related crashes were more likely to involve multiple vehicles. According to the
logistic regression results, the use of an officer/flagman or a stop/go signal would
reduce the chance of having a crash by 68% or 64% respectively.
Bai and Li (2004) conducted a study to investigate the characteristics and
dominant contributing factors of fatal work zone crashes in Kansas. They found that
(1) male drivers cause about 75% of the fatal work zone crashes in Kansas; drivers
between 35 and 44 years old, and older than 65, are the high-risk driver groups in
work zones; (2) the daytime non-peak hours (10:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m.) are the most
hazardous time period in work zones; (3) work zones on rural roads with speed limits
from 51 mph to 70 mph or located on complex geometric alignments are high-risk
locations; (4) most fatal crashes are multi-vehicle crashes, and head-on, angle-side
impact, and rear-end are the three most frequent collision types for the multi-vehicle
crashes; and (5) inefficient traffic controls and human errors contributed to most fatal
work zone crashes, and inattentive driving and misjudgment/disregarding traffic
control are the top contributing factors for fatal work zone crashes.
Ullman et al. (2006) conducted a study on the safety effects of night work
activity upon crashes at two types of construction projects (hybrid and night only) in
Texas. Conclusions derived from this study are: (1) crashes increased significantly
during periods of work activity than during periods of work inactivity; (2) a large
crash increase at night was expected because the night work more likely involved
lane closure than the day work; and (3) for the hybrid project, crashes increased at
night more than at day.
METHODOLOGY
An injury severity model was developed in this study to describe the
relationship between the injury severity of work zone crashes and a series of
explanatory variables. Injury severity, defined as the most severe injury sustained by
a person involved in the crash, is scaled into five major levels (Table 1). Obviously,
injury severity is a typical ordinal (ordered) categorical variable ranked from the
least severe level (no injury) to the most severe level (fatal) in an ascendant order.
Ordinal Probit regression is widely used with ordered response (dependant) variables,
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such as injury severity, since OP models can capture the ordinal attribute much better
than multinomial choice models.
Table 1. Description of Selected Variables.
Variable Description Type Value Definition
1 No Injury
2 Possible Injury
Non-incapacitating
ACCISEV Crash Severity Level Ordinal 3
injury
Incapacitating
4
Injury
5 Fatal Injury
If the crash occurred under the 0 No
LGHTCOND good lighting condition Binary
(daylight condition) 1 Yes
If there is a curve at the crash 0 No
CURVE Binary
location 1 Yes
If the crash occurred in a 0 No
URBAN Binary
urban area 1 Yes
MAXSPEED Maximum Posted Speed Limit Continuous
Section average annual daily
SECTADT Continuous
traffic
1 Young (15-24)
AGE_AT_F
At fault driver's age Categorical 2 Middle (25-64)
AULT
3 Old ( ≥ 65)
ALDGUSE_ If at fault driver was under 0 No
Binary
AT_FAULT influence of alcohol or drugs 1 Yes
If heavy vehicle (heavy truck 0 No
VEHTYPE Binary
and truck tractor)was involved 1 Yes
1 Rear-end
2 Angle
HARMEVN Crash Type Categorical
3 Sideswipe
4 Other Types

Ordered Probit Regression

Let Yi denote the injury severity for the ith observed crash, the OP model can
be written as (Long, 1997)

Pr(Yi = 1) = F (τ 1 − x i β)
Pr(Yi = j ) = F (τ j − x i β) − F (τ j −1 − x i β), j = 2, ..., J - 1 (1)
Pr(Yi = J ) = 1 − F (τ J −1 − x i β)
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where Pr(Yi ) is the probability of the response variable Yi adopting a specific

severity level j ( up to J =5); τ j is the threshold parameter (cut-off points) to be
estimated and satisfies the restriction τ 1 < τ 2 < L < τ J −1 ; x i is a vector containing
the values of observed crash i on the full set of explanatory variables; β is a vector
of coefficients associated with the explanatory variables; F () represents the CDF
(cumulative distribution function) of the standard normal distribution. The OP model
can also be rewritten in terms of the cumulative probability that an outcome is less
than or equal to m .
m
Pr(Yi ≤ m ) = ∑ Pr(Yi = j ) = F (τ j − x i β) , or
j =1 (2)
Pr(Yi > m ) = 1 − Pr(Yi ≤ m ) = 1 − F (τ j − x i β)
In Equations 1 and 2, the slope coefficients β are the same across the injury
severity levels while the cut-off points differ; in other words, β are independent to
the injury severity level ( j ) for the OP model. Maximum Likelihood Estimation
(MLE) method is used to estimate the OP model, the log likelihood is (Long, 1997):
J
ln L = ∑ ∑ ln[ F (τ j − x i β) − F (τ j −1 − x i −1β)] (3)
j =1 yi = j

z - Test is used to test the statistical significance of individual estimated

coefficient in OP models. The t – ratios for the null hypothesis H 0 that β i = 0 , and
the test statistic is
βˆi
z= (4)
σˆ i k
where βˆ is the estimator of β ; and β is the ith coefficient of the model; σ̂ is the
i i i i

estimator of standard deviation of the coefficient β i ; k is number of observations. If

H 0 is rejected at a confidence level (usually is 0.05), the coefficient β i is significant
to the response.
A Pseudo - R 2 , often used as a goodness-of-fit measure in non-linear models,
looks like R 2 in the sense that they are on a similar scale, ranging from 0 to 1. Here,
the Pseudo - R 2 is provided as
ln Lˆ (M full )
R2 = 1−
ln Lˆ (M )
(5)
int ercept

where M full is the model with predictors; M int ercept is the model without predictors;
L̂ is the estimated likelihood. A small ratio of log likelihoods indicates that the full
model is a far better fit than the intercept model.
Interpretation of Model Coefficients
The slope coefficients of fitted models can be used to interpret the impacts of
variables on the injury severity. A positive coefficient indicates a change of values
from 0 to 1 (for discrete variable) or a unit increase in the variable value (for
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continuous variable) is more likely increase the injury severity; while a negative
coefficient means the change of values tends to decrease the injury severity.
Another useful approach to interpret the coefficients is marginal effects, more
commonly defined as the slope of the probability curve relating xk to Pr(Y = j X ) at
the mean values of all variables, holding all other explanatory variables constant.

∂ Pr( y = j ) ∂F (τ j − xβ j ) ∂F (τ j −1 − xβ j −1 )
= −
∂x k ∂x k ∂x k (6)
= β k , j [ f (τ j −1 − xβ j −1 ) − f (τ j − xβ j )]

where f () is the probability density function respectively; x is the mean values of all
variables; and β k , j is the slop coefficient of the kth variable for the jth outcome
level. In this study, for continuous variables, the marginal effects are calculated as
the derivative of the curve; and for dummy/binary independent variables, the
marginal effects are computed as the difference of probabilities due to the discrete
change in the variables from 0 to 1.
DATA PREPARATION
The crash data used to fit the OP model were extracted from the Florida
Crash Analysis Reporting (CAR) system, which is a database storing all history crash
data in the State of Florida. In this study, a total of 14,217 work zone crash records
for five years (2002 to 2006) were identified by the variable
“FIRST_ROAD_CONDITION_CRASH_COD” which was equal to “04” (road
under repair/construction). Nine variables were selected as explanatory variables in
the developed model. Light condition (LIGHTCOND) was considered as an
environmental factor where “1” represented good light and “0” indicated an opposite
condition. CURVE represented if the roadway design in the work zone where a crash
occurred is curved and URBAN stands for if a crash occurred in an urban area. Two
variables were selected for describing drivers’ characteristics: AGE_AT_FAULT
signified the age of the drivers at fault; and ALDGUSE_AT_FAULT denoted if
drivers at fault were under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. Crash related
variables consisted of VHETYPE and HARMEVN, which corresponded to if a
heavy vehicle was involved and what type the crash was, respectively. MAXSPEED
was the posted speed limit in work zones, and SECADT was the AADT volume in
the work zone section where a crash occurred.
The selected variables might be categorical variables or continuous variables.
All categorical variables were purposely converted to dummy formats (See Table 2).
Meanwhile, the continuous variables were normalized (by dividing by each
maximum value) to have values between 0 and 1. The reason for this is that the
dummy variables have means between 0 and 1, and ordered multiple choice models
are almost never estimable if the variables are of very different magnitudes (Greene,
1993).
ESTIMATION RESULTS
The STATA software (v10.0) was used for developing the injury severity
model. The OP model was fitted using the oprobit command and the estimation
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result is given in Table 3. Likelihood Ratio (LR) test statistic falls into the rejection
area (p – value = 0 < 0.05). That means the overall explanatory variables of the
model have significant influence on the responses (injury severity levels) at a
statistical significance level of 95%. Except for ANGLE, all slope coefficients are
significant at a confidence level of 0.05. Although the p - value of ANGLE is slightly
greater than 0.05, the variable was still included in the model since angle crash was
an important crash type and more variables increase the explanation ability of the
model. Cut points ( τ j ) are the constant coefficients of the OP model, which
represent values of the predictor variables evaluated at zero.
Table 2. Description of Dummy Variables.
Variable Dummy Format Definition Values Description
AGE_AT_FAULT YOUNG_AGE Young (15-24) 1/0 Yes/No
MIDDLE_AGE Middle (25-64) 1/0 Yes/No
OLD_AGE Old ( ≥ 65) 1/0 Yes/No
HARMEVN REAR-END Rear-End 1/0 Yes/No
ANGLE Angle 1/0 Yes/No
SIDESWIPE Sideswipe 1/0 Yes/No
Mfx2 command in the SATA package was used to calculate the marginal
effects of explanatory variables for each injury severity levels. The result is given in
Table 4.

Table 3. Estimation Results of Ordered Probit Model.

Ordered Probit Regression Number of observation = 14217
LR chi2(12) = 1094.6
Prob > chi2 = 0.000
Log likelihood = -17861.331 Pseudo R2 = 0.0297
Coef. Std. Err. z P>z [95% Conf.Interval]
LGHTCOND -0.0981 0.0206 -4.77 0.000 -0.1384 -0.0578
CURVE 0.0818 0.0344 2.38 0.018 0.01432 0.1494
URBAN -0.1768 0.0308 -5.74 0.000 -0.2372 -0.1164
VEHTYPE -0.3846 0.0295 -13.02 0.000 -0.4425 -0.3267
ALDGUSE_AT_FAULT 0.2096 0.0430 4.87 0.000 0.1252 0.2939
YOUNG_AGE 0.0506 0.0224 2.26 0.024 0.0067 0.0945
OLD_AGE 0.1229 0.0326 3.77 0.000 0.0590 0.1867
REAR-END -0.0752 0.0217 -3.47 0.001 -0.1178 -0.0327
ANGLE 0.0569 0.0305 1.87 0.062 -0.0028 0.1166
SIDESWIPE -0.7253 0.0363 -19.98 0.000 -0.7964 -0.6541
SECADT -0.3851 0.0656 -5.87 0.000 -0.5136 -0.2565
MAXSPEED 0.7702 0.0742 10.38 0.000 0.6248 0.9156
/cutpoint1 0.0434 0.0677 -0.0892 0.1761
/cutpoint2 0.7261 0.0679 0.5931 0.8591
/cutpoint3 1.5236 0.0686 1.3892 1.6579
/cutpoint4 2.3867 0.0722 2.2452 2.5281
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1065
 
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Table 4. Marginal Effects of Fitted Model.

j=1 j=2 j=3 j=4 j=5
LGHTCOND 0.0388 -0.0053 -0.0179 -0.0123 -0.0034
CURVE -0.0323 0.0040 0.0149 0.0105 0.0029
URBAN 0.0694 -0.0074 -0.0318 -0.0234 -0.0068
VEHTYPE 0.1524 -0.0333 -0.0693 -0.0403 -0.0096
ALDGUSE_AT_FAULT -0.0817 0.0072 0.0374 0.0286 0.0086
YOUNG_AGE -0.0200 0.0027 0.0092 0.0063 0.0017
OLD_AGE -0.0483 0.0056 0.0222 0.0160 0.0045
REAR-END 0.0299 -0.0045 -0.0137 -0.0092 -0.0024
ANGLE -0.0225 0.0030 0.0104 0.0072 0.0020
SIDESWIPE 0.2793 -0.0792 -0.1231 -0.0632 -0.0138
SECADT 0.1527 -0.0222 -0.0703 -0.0475 -0.0127
MAXSPEED -0.3054 0.0443 0.1406 0.0950 0.0255

INTERPRETATIONS
Environmental Factors
Good light conditions were defined in this study as a work zone crash that
occurred in daylight. In the fitted model (Table 3), the sign of the slope coefficient of
the variable LGHTCOND was negative. It could be concluded that good light
conditions tend to decrease the injury severity in work zones. From Table 4, the
marginal effects of this variable could also derive the same conclusion. The marginal
effects for injury levels ( j = 1,2,3,4, and 5 ) were 0.0388, -0.0053, -0.0179, -0.0123,
and -0.0034; that means that, compared to bad light conditions, when a crash
occurred in work zones, good light conditions increased the probability of No Injury
by 3.88% and decreased the probability of Possible Injury, Non-incapacitating Injury,
Incapacitating Injury, and Fatal Injury by 0.5%, 1.79%, 1.23%, and 0.34%,
respectively, while other factors are constant.
Roadway Factors
Curved design in work zone areas is a significant factor contributing to the
injury severity of work zone crashes. Its coefficient is negative; meanwhile its
marginal effects are negative for No Injury and those for Possible Injury or over are
all positive. The results showed that curved design is more likely to increase the
probability of a severe injury in work zones.
Location type of work zones is another factor that impacts injury severity of
work zone crashes. Based on the slope coefficient and marginal effects, it could be
said that when a work zone crash occurs in urban areas, the probability of the
occurrence of severe injuries tends to decrease rather than those occurring in rural
areas. The reason for this phenomenon is that operating speeds in urban areas are
slower than in rural areas.
Drivers’ Characteristics
The age of drivers at fault is an important factor contributing to injury
severity in work zones. Based on the results in Tables 3 and 4, a conclusion could be
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1066
 
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made that old drivers (≥65 years old) and young drivers (≤24 years old) are more
likely to be associated with severe injury in work zones than the drivers at middle
age (25-64 years old). Particularly, the absolute values of the coefficient and the
marginal effects for old drivers are large (0.1229). Thus, the impact of older drivers
on safety performance in work zones is quite significant.
Alcohol/drug involvement could be considered the most dangerous factor that
contributes to the injury severity in work zones since its coefficient and marginal
effects (for Possible Injury and over) have large negative values.
Crash Related Factors
Rear-end, Angle, and Sideswipe are the three major crash types in work
zones. Obviously, Angle crashes tend to increase injury severity, and the other two
crash types are more likely to be associated with less severe injuries.
From Tables 3 and 4, we know that both coefficient and marginal effects (for
Possible Injury and worse) of VEHTYPE are negative. Based on this result, it could
be said that heavy vehicle involvement is more likely to be associated with less
severe injuries in work zones. A possible explanation for this impact is that drivers
tend to pay more attention and reduce operating speed when heavy vehicles are
running around them in work zones.
Traffic Factors
AADT is a critical factor in safety analysis, for crash frequency and for injury
severity. Because the sign of its coefficient is negative, with the increase in work
zone AADT, the probability of severe injury is decreased. It can be explained that
increase in AADT results in decrease in operating speeds; and lower speeds are more
likely to decrease the injury severity.
The model estimation results also indicated that a high posted speed limit is
the most significant factor associated with severe injuries in work zones because its
coefficient has the maximum positive value among all variables.
CONCLUSIONS
This study evaluated the impacts of various factors on injury severity in work
zones. A severity predictive model was developed based on the work zone crash data
collected in Florida using the Ordered Probit regression. Based on the analysis of the
slope coefficients and marginal effects of the prediction model, some conclusions are
as follows:
• Good light condition is likely to decrease the injury severity in work zones.
Thus, to improve light conditions in work zones is an effective
countermeasure to improve work zone safety performance.
• Location in urban areas tends to be associated with less severe injuries in
work zones; meanwhile, curved design is more likely to increase the
probability of the occurrence of severe injury.
• Heavy vehicle involvement might induce a decrease in work zone injury
severity since drivers tend to pay more attention and reduce operating speeds
when heavy vehicles are running around them in work zones.
• Alcohol and high speed are the two most important factors tending to
increase injury severity in work zones. Prohibition of drunk driving and
implementation of speed management are two effective methods to improve
safety performance of work zones.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1067
 
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• Old drivers and young drivers at fault are more likely to be associated with
severe injuries in work zones rather than the drivers at middle age.
• Different crash types have different impacts on injury severity in work zones.
Angle crashes easily result in severe injuries, while rear-end and sideswipe
crashes have opposite effects.
REFERENCES
Bai, Y. and Li, Y. (2004). Determining Major Causes of Highway Work Zone
Accidents in Kansas. Publication K-TRAN: KU-05-1. Kansas Department of
Transportation.
Chambless, J., Chadiali, A. M., Lindly, J. K, and McFadden, J. (2002). Multistate
Work Zone Crash Characteristics. ITE Journal, Vol. 72, pp 46–50.
Garber, N. J. and Zhao, M. (2002). Crash Characteristics at Work Zones. Publication
VTRC 02-R12, Virginia Transportation Research Council, Charlottesville,
Virginia.
Greene H. (1993) Econometric Analysis. Second Edition, Prentice-Hall Inc., Upper
Saddle River, New Jersey.
Ha, T. and Nemeth, Z. A. (1995). Detailed Study of Accident Experience in
Construction and Maintenance Zones. Transportation Research Record, No.
1590, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., pp 38–45.
Hall, J. W. and Lorenz, V. M. (1989). Characteristics of Construction Zone Crashes.
Transportation Research Record No. 1230, TRB, National Research Council,
Washington, D.C., pp 20–27.
Hill, R. W. (2003). Statistical Analysis of Fatal Traffic Accident Data. Master’s
Thesis, Texas Tech University.
Long, J. S. (1997) Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent
Variables. SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks, London.
Long, J. and Freese, J. (2006) Regression Models for Categorical Dependent
Variables Using Stata. Second Edition., State Press., College Station, Texas.
Maze, T. Kamyab, A. and Schrock, S. (2000) Evaluation of Work Zone Speed
Reduction Measures. Final Contract Report. Iowa Department of
Transportation, IA.
Mohan, S. B. and Gautam, P. (2002). Cost of Highway Work Zone Injuries. Practical
Periodical on Structural Design and Construction. Vol. 7, No.2, 2002, pp 68–
73.
Pigman, J. G. and Agent, K. R. (1990). Highway Crashes in Construction and
Maintenance Work Zones. Transportation Research Record, No. 1270, TRB,
National Research Council, Washington, D.C., pp 12–21.
Transportation Research Board. (2000). Highway Capacity Manual, 4th edition,
National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Ullman, G. L., Finley, M. D., and Ullman B. R. (2006). Analysis of Crash at Active
Night Work Zone in Texas. Presented at 85th Annual Meeting of the
Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1068
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Rumble Strip Design Based on Jerk Intensity

Chiu LIU 1 and Zhongren WANG 2

1
Division of Traffic Operation, California Department of Transportation, 1120 N Street,
MS-36, Sacramento, CA 95814; PH: 916-654-5975; FAX: 916-654-5566; email:
Chiu_Liu@dot.ca.gov
2
Division of Traffic Operation, California Department of Transportation, 1120 N Street,
MS-36, Sacramento, CA 95814; PH: 916-654-6133; FAX: 916-653-3055; email:
zhongren_wang@dot.ca.gov

ABSTRACT
Rumble strips have been applied on highways to reduce vehicle collisions
involving vehicles either running off road or crossing over the centerline. The rumbling
effect may be understood as tactile and/or audible inputs to inattentive or fatigue drivers.
In this paper, by adopting a quarter vehicle model, we analyzed the tactile effect for
milled-in rumble strips with different geometric parameters in terms of jerk intensity
experienced by drivers. It can be inferred from this study that for higher jerk intensity
ratios the optimal spacing between individual grooves lies somewhere around 180 mm.
The spacing between individual grooves should not exceed 30 cm, and the depth of
grooves between 5 to 15 mm is sufficient to cause an intense jerk ratio for practical
purposes. These conclusions match the current field practice very closely. It is believed
that the methodology may help develop new rumble strips design, or improve the
existing design.
INTRODUCTION
It is known that approximately 40,000 fatalities and 2 millions disabling injuries
occurr annually on US highways. Various engineering means have been employed to
reduce vehicle collisions on highways. Such means help reduce collisions by catching a
driver’s visual, kinesthetic, auditory, and/or vestibular attention. Big metropolises are
usually connected by a variety of types of highways. However, small cities and/or
towns are usually connected by 2/3 lane highways, with some 4-lane highway segments
on occasion. Fatal collision rate, per million vehicle miles traveled, is substantially
higher in the 2/3 lane highways than on multilane highways. It is quite natural to
consider reducing collisions for various reasons due to vehicle lane departure on 2&3
lane highways. Departure to the right collisions are termed as run-off-the-road collisions;
and departure to the left collisions are classified as cross-centerline collisions. Both
collisions are highly dangerous because a run-off-the-road vehicle could collide with
some fixed objects before the vehicle loses most of its kinetic energy and a cross-
centerline vehicle could collide at a high speed with an oncoming vehicle moving in the
opposite direction. In the last two decades or so, shoulder rumble strips have been
installed on highways to reduce run-off the road collisions, and centerline rumble strips
have been placed to reduce cross centerline collisions [NCHRP, 2009].
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1069
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It is of practical interest to understand and optimize the rumble effect by

controlling rumble strip width, depth, and spacing in rumble strip design. In this paper,
we analyze the rumble effect in connection with three basic parameters using a quarter
vehicle model. Our study will not only enhance the understanding of the design but also
help engineers to choose the right ranges for the design parameters based on motorists’
in-vehicle experience.
Rumble strip design parameters may be selected based on its acoustic
performance [NCHRP 2009]. However, as the purpose of a rumble strip is to arouse the
attention of potentially errant motorists, its design parameters could also be selected
based on how motorist actually feel riding on rumble strips. A jerk intensity index was
developed in previous studies [Liu and Herman 1999, Liu et al. 2008] to characterize
motorists’ reaction to pavement profile in a moving vehicle. It is believed that the same
index may well lend itself to select the design parameters for special pavement profiles,
such as rumble strips. It is the purpose of this paper to present such research, relating a
jerk intensity index to the rumble strip’s rumble effect, or the jerk intensity motorists
feel.
FORMULATION
Consider a vehicle moving over the rumble strips shown in Figure 2 along a
given direction. In order to pin down the vibration due to the rumble strips only, the road
surface is at first assumed to be flat; if necessary, the vibration induced by a rough
profile can always be added. Then, the road profile appears to be smooth except where
the rumble strips are present. Denoting the displacements from the equilibrium positions
of the sprung mass and the unsprung mass as z s (x) and z u (x) , and the surface profile
by z (x) , one can describe the vertical dynamic vibrations of the quarter vehicle [Liu &
Herman 1999]:
M s &z&s + k s ( z s − z u ) + c s ( z& s − z&u ) = 0
(1)
M s &z&s + M u &z&u + ct (z& − z&u ) = k t ( z − z u )
(2)
Shown in Figure 1 is a sprung mass M s rested on top of a spring k s and a
dashpot with a viscous parameter c s , an unsprung mass M u , and a spring a viscous
parameter ct , and a constant k t characterizing the tire mechanical properties. A rumble
strip profile characterized by a spatial period of L can be expanded in terms of a Fourier
series:
z ( x) = A0 + Re ∑n =1 An e − iφn + i 2 nπx / L
∞
(3)
L L
2 2
An cos φ n = ∫ z (u ) cos(2nπ u / L)du, An sin φ n = ∫ z (u ) sin( 2nπ u / L)du
L0 L0 (4)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1070
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Where the expansion coefficient An is real, quantity φ n is a phase angle, and the
integer n ≥ 1 . Constant A0 is not of any concerns because it solely shifts the x-axis
vertically.

Figure 1. Sketch of a quarter vehicle moving over rumble strips.

Using Eq. (3), the vertical displacement z u (x) of the unsprung mass and z s (x)
the sprung mass for Eqs. (1) & (2) are found to be

⎧⎪ (k s − M s ω n2 + iω n c s )(k t − iω n ct ) iωnt −iφn ⎫⎪

z u ( x) = Re⎨∑∞ A
n =1 n e ⎬
⎪⎩ Θ ⎪⎭
(5)
⎧ (k s + iω n c s )(k t − iω n ct ) iωnt −iφn ⎫
z s ( x) = Re⎨∑∞
n =1 An e ⎬
⎩ Θ ⎭
(6) Θ = (k t − M u ω n2 − iω n ct )(k s − M s ω n2 + iω n c s ) − M s ω n2 ( k s + iω n c s )
(7)
where angular frequency ω n = 2nπv/L and the vehicle moving position x is replaced
by vt plus an offset, which is adjusted to zero for convenience. In addition, the vehicle
parameters are set to k s / M s = 62.3 , k t / M s = 653 , mu / M s = 0.15 , ct / M s = 0.1 , and
c s / M s = 6.0 [Liu et al. 2008]. The jerk relative to ground, or the rate of change of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1071
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acceleration experienced by riders, can be found by differentiating Eq. (6) repetitively

three times:
⎧⎪
∞ i (k s + iω n c s )(k t − iω n ct )ω n3 iωnt −iφn ⎫⎪
J s (t ) = − Re⎨∑n=1 An e ⎬
⎪⎩ Θ ⎪⎭ (8)
Equation (8) is a periodic function of time with a period T equal to L / v . Within
a moving vehicle, a rider was found to be sensitive to the jerk intensity, which matches
the variance of the jerk when a road profile behaves as a random variable [Liu and
Herman 1999]:
T
1
J 2 = ∫ J s (t ) × J s∗ (t )dt
T 0 (9)
or
J 2 = ∑n =1 ω n6 An2 (k s2 + ω n2 c s2 )(k t2 + ω n2 ct2 ) / 2ΘΘ *
∞
(10)
Where Js is the complex conjugate of J. Equation (10) relates rumble strip geometry and
vehicle mechanical characteristics to the vibration environment inside a moving vehicle.
Next, we consider the jerk intensity produced by a popular type of rumble strip, the
milled-in rumble strip.
MILLED-IN RUMBLE STRIPS
The milled in rumble strip may be approximated by the following
parabolic profile:
⎧− 4d ( x − w / 2) 2 / w 2 0≤ x≤w
z ( x) ≅ ⎨
⎩0 w< x≤L (11)
where quantities L , d , and w represent the spatial period (spacing between individual
grooves), the depth, and the width of the rumble strips respectively. In practice, the
spatial period varies from 15 cm (6”) to 30.5 cm (12”), the depth ranges from 0.6 cm to
1.6 cm, and the width is chosen in between 5 cm and 12.5 cm. The physical magnitudes
of L, d, and w in engineering practices are usually chosen according to standard
specifications or special construction details. The profile is sketched as shown by Figure
2:

Figure 2. Sketch of longitudinal rumble strips cross section.

Using Eq. (4), the coefficient An for each sinusoidal component of a profile is
computed as follows:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1072
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4dw
An = cos(φ n ) − sin(φ n ) / φ n
φ n2 L , (12)
φ n = nπw / L (13)
Substituting Eq. (12) into Eq. (10) yields:
2
⎛ v ⎞⎛ v ⎞
J = 32d ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟ × ∑n =1 Rn2 a n2φ n2 / 2
∞

⎝ L ⎠⎝ w ⎠
(14)
Rn = (k s + ω n c s )(k t2 + ω n2 ct2 ) / ΘΘ*
2 2 2 2

(15)
a n2 = [cos φ n − (sin φ n / φ n )]2 (16)
While decreased with the increase of the rumble strip width w, the jerk
magnitude increases proportionally to the rumble strip depth d. The ratio of v/w
physically represents the inverse of the contact time between tire and rumble strip. The
ratio of d/L measures the jerk severity. The jerk magnitude is modified by vehicle
dynamic characteristics factor according to Eq. (14). A few consequences of practical
significance may be drawn from Eq. (14). First, in order to increase jerk magnitude
effectively, one should decrease the tire-rumble-strip contact time by decreasing w as
much as practically possible. Second, the jerk magnitude increases proportionally with
the rumble strip depth d. Since a deeper cut into pavement or paved shoulder may
degrade pavement structural integrity, it is better to change the rumble strip width to
control the jerk intensity experienced in moving vehicles. In Figure 3, the normalized
jerk intensity J / J 0 was plotted against the rumble strip width by setting vehicle speed
at 80 km/h, rumble strip spacing at 0.305 m, and rumble strip depth at 9 mm (~3/8
inches). The jerk intensity J 0 was the intensity induced on a moving vehicle by rumble
strips with a regular spacing of 0.305 m, a depth of 9 mm, and a width of 0.203 m. It
can be seen from Figure 3 that the jerk intensity dramatically decreases with the increase
of width w, when w is below 180 mm; while the jerk intensity decreases slowly when
width w is beyond 180 mm. Therefore, when designing a rumble strip, the milled-in
width should be less than 180 mm for better jerk intensity or effectiveness. Sure enough,
in the State of Florida, the current design specifications for the width of milled-in rumble
strips is exactly 180 mm. See the Florida milled in rumble strip specification online:
http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/roadway_dept/pavement/rumble_strips/rumble_types/docs/fl.
pdf.
The spatial period L, i.e. the rumble strip spacing will of course effect the jerk
intensity experienced by drivers. Decreasing the rumble strip spacing L makes the
individual grooves denser, the longitudinal profile rougher, and therefore gives higher
jerk intensity. As shown in Figure 4, jerk intensity decreases with the increase of L.
When L goes beyond 30.5 cm (1 foot), the jerk intensity remains relatively insensitive to
variations of L. It can also be observed from Figure 4 that when L approaches d, or when
individual grooves become immediate neighbors, the profile becomes the roughest, and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1073
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the rumble effect experienced by drivers the most intense. As L cannot be less than d,
Figure 4 was developed using d = 18 cm, and L starts at 22 cm. From a designer’s
perspective, L should be selected as small as practical, constructible, and sensible. As
shown in Figure 4, L=30 to 45 cm is a good range, and the State of Florida selected
L=30 cm.

Figure 3. Jerk intensity ratio plotted against rumble strip width w.

(cm)
Figure 4. Jerk intensity ratio plotted against rumble strip spacing L.
According to Eq. (14), jerk intensity increases proportionally with the rumble
strip depth d at a given rumble strip width and spacing. When d varies from zero to 25
mm, the jerk intensity ratio linearly increases from 0 to 2.7, as shown in Figure 5. From
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1074
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a design point of view, it is not sensible to use a very large value for d, so that the groves
become too deep, causing a driver to panic and overcorrect. Certainly the depth d should
not be too shallow, failing to cause enough jerk intensity. A depth between 5 mm and 15
mm may well cause the jerk intensity ratio to go above 1. The State of Florida selected
d =13~16 mm.

Figure 5. Jerk intensity ratio plotted against rumble strip depth d.

CONCLUSION
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the rumble effect induced by milled-in
rumble strips. The rumble design presented is closely related to how motorists sense the
vibrational environment in a moving vehicle when riding on the strips. Inferences made
from the analysis indicate that the width of a rumble strip should not exceed 180 mm for
higher jerk intensity ratios, or a better rumble effect. The spacing between individual
grooves should not exceed 30 cm, and a depth of grooves between 5 to 15 mm is
sufficient to cause enough of an intense jerk ratio for practical purposes. The analysis
results support current practice very well, and it is believed that its methodology may
lend itself to further improve the design of new rumble strips.
REFERENCES
Caltrans (2004). Standard Specification, California Department of Transportation.
Sacramento, California.
Liu, C. and Herman, R. (1999). “Roadway Profile, Vehicle Dynamics, and Ride Quality
Rating.” J. Transp. Eng. 125 (2), 1999, 123-128
Liu, C., Wang, Z., and Lee, J. N. (2008). “Effect of Joints on Ride Quality and
Roughness Index.” International Journal of Pavement Research and Technology,
4 (1), 143-147.
NCHRP (2009). Guidance and Design of Shoulder and Centerline Rumble Strips.
National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 641,
Washington D.C.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1075
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Development of Models to Predict Conflict Rates at Unsignalized Intersections

Jian LU 1 and Shengxue ZHU 2

1
Professor, Center for Transportation Research, Shanghai Jiaotong University,

Shanghai, China，200240; Email: jianjohnlu@sina.com

2
Lecturer, Faculty of Transportation Engineering, Huaiyin Institute of Technology,
Huai’an, China, 223003; Email:zhushengxue601@126.com

ABSTRACT
Transportation engineers and planners have used access management as an
efficient tool to preserve and improve the safety characteristics of road systems.
Recently, access management techniques have been applied as good solutions in
many places. Median treatment is such a technique, where right turns and U-turns
are employed as an alternative to direct left turns at high volume driveways that
intersect with high to medium major-road volumes. The safety impact of this
treatment needs to be clarified. In order to reduce the safety impacts due to left turn
movement from driveways, the reducing of conflicts might be used as an effective
tool. In the study presented in the paper, more than three hundred hours of field data
was collected in the field from ten sites in the Tampa, Florida area, including
driveway volume, through traffic volume, number of conflicts, speed, and geometric
data. A safety effect database was set up to perform the statistical analysis. The
objective of this study was to develop models that can predict conflict rates for the
two different types of left turn maneuvers. Based on those rates, correct decisions
may be made and a suitable access technique may be applied.

INTRODUCTION
Traffic accidents have been a serious concern since the start of the
automobile age. Despite this concern, traffic safety problems have continued over
the past century, causing enormous economic and social costs. Recognizing these
safety problems and the importance of reducing them, highway planners and
engineers work hard to obtain all possible data that will lead to reaching the safety
goal (Sayed, Brown, and Navin, 1993). Traffic conflicts often happen at road
intersections where drivers are required to perform more driving maneuvers within a
shorter time period on roadway segments between intersections. Parker and Zeeger
defined traffic conflict as an event involving two or more road users in which the
action of one user causes the other user to make an evasive maneuver to avoid a
collision (Parker and Zeeger, 1989). Observing the use of brake lights or lane
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1076
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changes identifies such evasive maneuvers. Most traffic conflicts occur due to
conflicting maneuvers at unsignalized intersections where design and operations are
comprised of a complex set of parameters including number of traffic lanes, traffic
volumes, spacing between intersections, medians, speed, and turning movements.
The majority of access-related crashes have been attributed to left-turn movements.
At unsignalized intersections, left turn movements from driveway to a major road
pose many problems, and a large number of conflict points. The safety benefits of
access management techniques have contributed to a reduction in traffic conflict
points, improved access design, and higher driver response time to potential
conflicts. Because a driver can only handle one conflict at a time, access
management is used to separate the conflict points that cannot be eliminated (Parker
and Zeeger, 1989).
A traffic conflict is considered as an interaction between vehicles, which may
lead to crashes. The beginning of traffic conflict studies was with Perkins and
General Motors in 1967, when they defined some typical incidents related to a
specific accident types at intersections. In 1989, a study by Parker and Zeeger
produced guidelines for collecting conflict data in the United States. That report
produced a guide for engineers, addressing issues such as sample size, conflict types,
conflict definitions, and conflict analysis. In that study, they also produced a manual
for observers, which clearly explained how to perform a conflict study in the field
(Parker and Zeeger, 1989). In 1993, Sayed, Brown, and Navin used data collected
for unsignalized intersections in the British Columbia area to create a simulation
package for conflict studies at unsignalized intersections (Sayed, Brown, and Navin,
1993).
After reviewing papers and studies about traffic conflict, using the conflict
rate as a measurement tool for safety could be a better method for transportation
engineers in the future (Lu and Dissanayake, 2002). Based on the nature of roadway
safety and traffic operational problems, specific access management treatments are
applied according to many variables such as location, volume, speed, geometric
design, and land use. One of the concerns relates to the safety impacts of direct left
turn movement compared with right turn and U-turn movements and maneuvers.
The objective of this research is to develop models to predict conflict rates at
unsignalized intersections, particularly for different types of left turn maneuvers.

MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Site Selection. The sites for this study were carefully selected to fulfill study
requirements. Sites were also selected based on some specific geometric criteria.
These criteria include:
1) The major road should have three or more lanes in each direction.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1077
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2) The driveway traffic volume should be relatively high or moderate.

3) Median width should be wide enough to store the left turn vehicles.
4) A raised-curb median with either a full median opening or directional
median opening and median U-turn bay, where the medians can safely store
waiting vehicles.
5) Median types were either full opening or directional.
6) The entire site was located in commercial and residential areas.

Some characteristics of those sites will be shown on Table 1:

Table 1. Some Characteristics of the Selected Sites.

Number of Number of Median Posted Weaving
Site
Location Lanes Lanes opening Speed Distance
#
(Through) (Driveway) Type (kmph) (m)
1 Fowler Ave.& 46th St. 6 1 D 72 221
2 Fowler Ave.& 19th St. 8 2 F 81 174
3 US 19 & 116th Ave. 6 1 D/F 89 128
Bruce. B. Downs &
4 6 1 F 72 296
Medical Center
Hillsborough Ave. &
5 6 2 F 72 92
Golden St.
US 19 & Enterprise
6 6 1 F 89 168
Center
7 US 19 & Innisbrook 6 2 F 89 138
8 Fowler Ave.& 52nd St. 6 1 D 81 177
Gunn Highway &
9 4 2 F 72 180
Hangert
Bruce. B. Downs &
10 4 1 D 72 260
Pebble Creek
F= Full opening median, D= Directional opening median.

Conflict Types. The most significant and common conflicts were considered.
This resulted in the selection and evaluation of nine types of conflicts, including the
following:
C1- Right-Turn Out of the Driveway Conflict: This occurs when an
offending vehicle located on a driveway turns right onto a major road, placing a
conflicting vehicle on the major-road in danger of an angled or sideswipe collision.
C2- Slow-Vehicle Same-Direction Conflict: This occurs when a right turning
vehicle is already on the major road and begins to accelerate while on the path of a
major road vehicle; thus, the major road vehicle is placed in danger of a rear-end
collision.
C3- Lane Change Conflict: This occurs when a vehicle from a driveway that
turned to the right changes from one lane to another until it reaches the U-turn bay.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1078
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

This maneuver may place through traffic vehicles in danger of rear-end or sideswipe
collisions.
C4- U-turn Conflict: This occurs when a vehicle making a U-turn places
vehicles coming from the opposite direction in danger of a sideswipe or right-angle
collisions.
C5- Left-Turn Out of the Driveway Conflict: This occurs when a vehicle on
the driveway across the major road trying to make direct left turn places a major-
road vehicle in danger of a right angle or sideswipe collision.
C6- Direct-Left Turn and Left-Turn in From-Right Conflict: This occurs
when a left turning vehicle from the driveway places a vehicle turning into the same
driveway in danger of an angled collision.
C7- Direct-Left-Turn and Left-Turn out From-Left Conflict: This occurs
when a left turning vehicle from the driveway places a vehicle turning into the
opposite driveway in danger of sideswipe or angle collisions.
C8- Left-Turn out of Driveway Conflict after Median: This occurs when a
left turning vehicle trying to merge onto the opposite side from the median storage
area places an oncoming major-road vehicle in danger of a rear-end or sideswipe
collision.
C9- Slow U-turn Vehicle Same-Direction Conflict: This occurs when a
vehicle that completed the U-turn maneuver accelerates, placing an oncoming
major-road vehicle in danger of a rear-end collision (Huaguo Zhou, Jian John Lu,
Nelson Castillo, X.K. Yang and Kristine M. Williams, 2001).
Data Collection. Two types of data were collected from the field: traffic
operational data and conflicts data. The operational data included traffic volumes on
the major road and on the driveway and speed on the major road. Automatic traffic
counters were used to measure volumes and speed. Also, four video cameras were
used to monitor all traffic operations between two median openings and in the
weaving section. Figure 1 shows the set up of the counters and the cameras for data
collection and the steps for data reduction. Using video cameras allowed the
observer to review all the conflicts vehicle by vehicle. This methodology requires
spending several hours reducing the data from the videotapes.
Data was collected during weekdays, peak periods, normal traffic conditions,
good weather conditions, and dry pavement conditions. Data was collected for two
weeks at each site for about four hours a day. About three hundred hours of traffic
data was recorded by video cameras at all sites, and only the peak hours were
selected for the study. Reviewing and analyzing one hour of videotape consumes
roughly three to four hours.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1079
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Vehicle arrive to the intersection and STOP waiting

Departure Time

Type of Movement

Right Turn plus Direct Left Turn

NO
YES NO YES

Traffic Traffic Traffic Traffic

Type of Safe Type of

(a) Conflict Data Reduction

Camera 3
Camera 4

Camera 1

Camera 2
Traffic Counter

(b) Cameras and counter setup.

Figure 1. Conflict Data collection and Reduction Procedures.

Data Analysis. First, a separate correlation analysis was conducted for each
of the independent variables to determine which variables were most highly
correlated. More than ten variables were used as independent variables including
major road volumes, left turn volumes, speed of major road, weaving distance, etc.
In order to come up with good models, the relationships of the independent variables
were tested. The significant variables were found by using methods such as stepwise,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1080
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backward and forward reduction of the number of independent variables that can be
in the final model. After testing the normality, the distribution, and the linearity of
the data, the linear regression analysis became the best-fit model for this study. All
the necessary analysis results and statistical descriptive are shown on Tables 2 and 3.

Table 2. Statistical Characteristics for the Variables Entering the Final Model
for Direct Left Turn Movement.
Descriptives MR1 MR2 Ltin DLt Ltops
Std. Std. Std. Std. Std.
Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error
Mean 2120.00 61.00 2116.71 80.57 45.22 5.12 30.27 2.35 6.31 0.91
Lower
95% Confidence Bound 1997.05 1954.34 34.90 25.52 4.49
Interval for Mean Upper
Bound 2242.95 2279.08 55.55 35.01 8.14
5% Trimmed
Mean 2113.15 2109.70 44.78 29.33 5.99
Median 2051.00 2000.00 45.00 26.00 5.00
Variance 167467.14 292102.98 1180.72 249.43 36.90
Std. Deviation 409.23 540.47 34.36 15.79 6.07
Minimum 1456.00 1120.00 0.00 10.00 0.00
Maximum 2959.00 3274.00 99.00 68.00 19.00
Range 1503.00 2154.00 99.00 58.00 19.00
Interquartile
Range 722.50 808.00 68.00 24.50 11.50
Skewness 0.18 0.35 0.27 0.35 0.19 0.35 0.75 0.35 0.48 0.35
Kurtosis -1.12 0.69 -0.67 0.69 -1.46 0.69 -0.33 0.69 -1.07 0.69

CR5 CR6 CR7 CR8 CRDlt

Std. Std. Std. Std. Std.
Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error
Mean 33.04 2.64 14.18 1.99 4.64 0.63 12.67 1.85 64.53 5.73
Lower
95% Confidence Bound 27.72 10.17 3.38 8.95 52.98
Interval for Mean Upper
Bound 38.37 18.19 5.90 16.39 76.09
5% Trimmed
Mean 32.70 13.32 4.48 11.60 62.51
Median 31.00 8.00 5.00 11.00 59.00
Variance 314.59 178.06 17.60 153.23 1478.98
Std. Deviation 17.74 13.34 4.19 12.38 38.46
Minimum 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.00
Maximum 68.00 46.00 13.00 47.00 148.00
Range 62.00 46.00 13.00 47.00 126.00
Interquartile
Range 29.50 16.50 9.00 20.00 60.50
Skewness 0.28 0.35 1.07 0.35 0.18 0.35 0.88 0.35 0.68 0.35
Kurtosis -1.08 0.69 -0.20 0.69 -1.37 0.69 0.42 0.69 -0.70 0.69
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1081
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Table 3. Statistical Characteristics for the Variables Entering the Final Model
for Right Turn plus U-turn Movements.
Descriptives MR1 MR2 RtUt WD CRRtUt
Std. Std. Std. Std. Std.
Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error
Mean 2101.88 50.76 2098.22 61.95 22.48 2.76 545.63 25.26 42.61 3.62
95% Lower
Confidence Bound 2000.44 1974.43 16.98 495.14 35.37
Interval for
Mean Upper
Bound 2203.31 2222.01 27.99 596.11 49.85
5% Trimmed
Mean 2094.92 2090.33 20.91 545.14 42.26
Median 2069.00 1994.00 13.00 510.00 39.00
Variance 164909.89 245586.33 486.22 40850.40 839.77
Std.
Deviation 406.09 495.57 22.05 202.11 28.98
Minimum 1456.00 1120.00 1.00 255.00 0.00
Maximum 2959.00 3274.00 76.00 845.00 93.00
Range 1503.00 2154.00 75.00 590.00 93.00
Interquartile
Range 712.00 727.50 37.00 381.25 50.00
Skewness 0.12 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.95 0.30 0.23 0.30 0.17 0.30
Kurtosis -1.20 0.59 -0.50 0.59 -0.32 0.59 -1.44 0.59 -1.17 0.59
CR1 CR2 CR3 CR4 CR9
Std. Std. Std. Std. Std.
Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error Statistic Error
Mean 9.77 1.30 10.98 1.08 9.72 1.13 7.38 1.11 4.77 0.90
95% Lower
Confidence Bound 7.18 8.83 7.45 5.16 2.96
Interval for
Mean Upper
Bound 12.36 13.14 11.98 9.59 6.57
5% Trimmed
Mean 9.07 10.60 9.29 6.70 4.06
Median 7.00 10.50 8.00 3.50 0.00
Variance 107.48 74.14 82.30 78.49 52.09
Std.
Deviation 10.37 8.61 9.07 8.86 7.22
Minimum 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Maximum 36.00 30.00 31.00 28.00 23.00
Range 36.00 30.00 31.00 28.00 23.00
Interquartile
Range 16.00 11.75 17.75 15.00 8.75
Skewness 0.74 0.30 0.40 0.30 0.37 0.30 0.87 0.30 1.32 0.30
Kurtosis -0.60 0.59 -0.72 0.59 -1.15 0.59 -0.58 0.59 0.39 0.59

Modeling. Multicollinearty diagnoses and coloration tests for all variables

were performed. Linear regressions were found to be the best form of regression that
can explain and draw inferences about the relationship of the data. Linear models
were used for each conflict type. Then, linear regression models were found for each
type of movement using all variables. Fitting the models was performed in order to
choose the best fit model. Among all models, two models are presented here as the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1082
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final models that can be used for prediction.

The first model predicts the conflict rate for direct left turn movements:
CR (DLt) = 50.44 − (0.021) MR1 + (0.009) MR 2 + (0.507) DLt+ (0.034) Ltin+ (3.85) Ltops

where: CR(DLt) is the predicted conflict rate for the direct left turn maneuver.
MR1 is the major road traffic volume in one direction.
MR2 is the major road traffic volume in the opposite direction.
DLt is the direct left turn volume,
Ltin is the left turn in the driveway volume.
Ltops is the left turn in the opposite driveway volume.
The second model is to predict conflict rate for the right turn plus U-turn
movement:
CR (RtUt) = 24.75 − (0.024) MR 1 + (0.024) MR 2 + (0.844) RtUt − (0.001) WD

where: CR(RtUt) is the predicted conflict rate for the right turn plus u-turn maneuver.
RtUt is the right turn plus u-turn volume.
WD is the weaving distance.
The intercept and the coefficients in those equations were presented in Tables
4 and 5 with some statistical results and tests for both models.

Table 4. Coefficients & Statistical Tests for Direct Left Turn Movement Model.
Model Summaryb

Adjusted Std. Error of

Model R R Square R Square the Estimate
1 .764a .584 .531 26.341
a. Predictors: (Constant), LTINOPST, MR1, LTINDR, DLT,
MR2
b. Dependent Variable: CRDLT

ANOVAb

Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 38015.837 5 7603.167 10.958 .000a
Residual 27059.363 39 693.830
Total 65075.200 44
a. Predictors: (Constant), LTINOPST, MR1, LTINDR, DLT, MR2
b. Dependent Variable: CRDLT

Coefficientsa

Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients Collinearity Statistics
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Tolerance VIF
1 (Constant) 50.441 28.249 1.786 .082
MR1 -.021 .020 -.228 -1.088 .283 .244 4.105
MR2 .009 .015 .121 .575 .569 .241 4.156
LTINDR .034 .132 .031 .261 .796 .770 1.299
DLT .507 .301 .208 1.687 .100 .699 1.430
LTINOPST 3.849 .797 .608 4.830 .000 .673 1.486
a. Dependent Variable: CRDLT
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1083
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Table 5. Coefficients for Direct Left Turn Movement Model.

Model Summaryb

Adjusted Std. Error of

Model R R Square R Square the Estimate
1 .700a .489 .455 21.397
a. Predictors: (Constant), WD, MR1, RTUT, MR2
b. Dependent Variable: CRRTUT

ANOVA b

Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 25893.410 4 6473.352 14.139 .000a
Residual 27011.825 59 457.828
Total 52905.234 63
a. Predictors: (Constant), WD, MR1, RTUT, MR2
b. Dependent Variable: CRRTUT

Coefficientsa

Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients Collinearity Statistics
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Tolerance VIF
1 (Constant) 24.745 17.436 1.419 .161
MR1 -.024 .013 -.335 -1.830 .072 .258 3.875
MR2 .024 .011 .403 2.131 .037 .242 4.134
RTUT .844 .124 .643 6.809 .000 .972 1.029
WD -.001 .015 -.004 -.038 .970 .827 1.209
a. Dependent Variable: CRRTUT

Validation. For model validation, PRESS statistic procedures were used,

which is the predicted residual sum of squares. This is an out-of-sample validation
statistic.

∑
n
PRESS = i =1
( y1 − yˆ i ) 2

The model with the smallest PRESS is considered the best. Based on the
analysis, the two models shown above were selected. Figure 2 shows the histogram,
probability plot, and the scatter plot of the dependent variables for both maneuvers.

CONCLUSION

Conflict rate prediction will make conflict data more helpful, not only safety-
wise but also for future traffic planning. Regression models are powerful tools for
predicting a conflict rate based on other variables collected from the fields. In order
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1084
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

to construct a regression model, both information which will be used to make the
prediction and the information which will be predicted must be obtained from a
sample of real populations. The sample size must be large enough to represent that
population. In this study, linear regression models were used to predict conflict rates
from traffic data.

Histogram Histogram
Dependent Variable: CRRTUT Dependent Variable: CRDLT
10 6

8 5

4
6

3
4
2
Frequency

Frequency
2 Std. Dev = .97
Std. Dev = .94
Mean = 0.00 1
Mean = 0.00
0 N = 64.00
0 N = 45.00
-1.75 -1.25 -.75 -.25 .25 .75 1.25 1.75 2.25

-2
-2 0
-2 5
-1 0
-1 5
-1 0
-1 5
-.7 0
-.5
-.2
0.
.2
.5
.7
1.
1. 0
1. 5
1. 0
2. 5
-1.50 -1.00 -.50 0.00 .50 1.00 1.50 2.00

00
5
0
5
0
2
5
7
00
.5
.2
.0
.7
.5
.2
.0
5
0
5
Regression Standardized Residual Regression Standardized Residual

Normal P-P Plot of Regression Sta Normal P-P Plot of Regression Sta
Dependent Variable: CRRTUT Dependent Variable: CRDLT
1.00 1.00

.75 .75
Expected Cum Prob

.50
Expected Cum Prob

.50

.25 .25

0.00 0.00
0.00 .25 .50 .75 1.00 0.00 .25 .50 .75 1.00

Observed Cum Prob Observed Cum Prob

Scatterplot Scatterplot
Dependent Variable: CRRTUT Dependent Variable: CRDLT
3 3
Regression Standardized Residual

Regression Standardized Residual

2
2

1
1

0
-1

-1
-2

-2 -3
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

CRRTUT CRDLT

(a) Charts for right turn plus U-turn. (b) Chart for direct left turn.

Figure 2. Histogram, P-P Plot and Scatter Plot for the Dependent Variables for
both Maneuvers.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1085
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REFERENCES
Huaguo Zhou, Jian John Lu, Nelson Castillo, X.K. Yang and Kristine M. Williams
(2001).“Safety and Operational Effects of Replacing a Full Median Opening
with a Directional Median Opening.” Annual Meeting of Institute of
Transportation Engineers, pp.19-22.

Jian John Lu and Sunanda Dissanayake（2002). “Safety Evaluation of Direct Left

Turns Vs Right Turns Followed by U-Turns Using Traffic Conflict Technique.”

Traffic And Transportation Studies， Vol.23, No.7, pp.1039–1046.

Parker, M. R., and Zeeger, C. V. (1989). “Traffic Conflict Technique for Safety and
OperationEngineers Guide”. Report FHWA-IP-88-026. FHWA, U.S. Department
of Transportation.
Parker, M. R., and Zeeger, C. V. (1989). FHWA-IP-88-027. Federal Highway
Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., June.
Sayed, T., Brown, G., and Navin, F. (1993). “Simulation of Traffic Conflicts at
Unsignalized Intersections with TSC-Sim.” Accident Analysis and Prevention,
Vol. 26, No. 5, pp. 593– 607.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1086
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A New Way of Transportation Modeling – “Cloud Computing” Based Internet

Solution for Transportation Modeling

Minhua WANG1
1
Minhua Wang, Ph.D., Citilabs, Inc. 1040 Marina Village Parkway, Alameda, CA 94501;
PH (703)944-4192, FAX (510) 523-9706; email: mwang@citilabs.com

ABSTRACT
This paper introduces the first Internet-based solution for transportation
modeling software, named “Mint” (i.e., Modeling on Internet). Mint is a web-based,
hosted scalable platform for transportation modeling that provides governments and
consulting firms with software-as-a-service (SaaS) benefits. In other words, Mint is a
“no software” solution. Using Mint, most organizations will be able to get faster results
while reducing their costs by cutting down on software and hardware investments, as
well as on overhead for in-house IT staff. Cost savings can also be realized as web-based
systems enable the sharing of licenses across multiple clients. By leveraging web
technologies and using a system architecture that allows for simple sharing, multiple
clients and stakeholders can apply models and access the results online from anywhere.

INTRODUCTION
Up to now, modern city planners have relied upon desktop based transportation
modeling software that required a modeling expert to act as the gatekeeper to the
information they needed. This “expert-based” approach has been an adequate but
expensive and time-consuming approach. Now, with the advent of web technologies,
this traditional approach is no longer the best or easiest method for performing and
accessing transportation forecasts and projections.
Most existing desktop based Transportation Modeling software has limits on
both computing power for running complex transportation models and expert knowledge
to use the complex model for non-transportation modelers. Internet-based software
implements a wizard-based approach (Web page) to provide tools and functions to the
users through common web browsers, which eliminates software installation and
upgrade on the clients’ machines. Internet-based software architecture also opens the
door for applying other modern Internet technologies such as web services and “cloud
computing.” Cloud computing is the convergence and evolution of several concepts
from virtualization, distributed application design, grid, and enterprise IT management
to enable a more flexible approach for deploying and scaling applications on the Internet.

LIMITATIONS OF DESKTOP BASED TRANSPORTATION MODELING

SOFTWARE
Desktop-based transportation modeling software has been widely used in the
transportation planning industry for decades; the easy control of input/output data and
user-friendly user interface have been the key for the success of desktop-based
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1087
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transportation modeling software. However, with the growth of the amount of data and
the complexity of multimodal transportation networks required to support planning and
modeling studies, transportation models are becoming more complex and taking more
time to run, particularly, in some large metropolitan areas.
A complex transportation model may include multiple scenarios, multiple steps
of modeling processes, large number of traffic analysis zones, and a complex simulation
algorithm which requires significant computing resources to run. The desktop-based
transportation modeling software, particularly single desktop machine-based software,
has significant limits to accomplish complex transportation modeling processes due to
the limit of computing power that the most desktop machines have: limited CPU
resource (number of processors), limited processing speed, limited memory space,
limited storage space, and limited licensing and access. These limitations have
significant impacts on transportation modeling practices:
1. Longer running time for a model: days and hours to run a complex model is
commonly seen in many planning organizations; many planners and modelers
are struggling to reduce the number of zones for the model trying to reduce the
running time, which sometimes results in an inaccurate estimation.
2. Increasing cost of purchasing more computing resources, such as a high-end
server with four to eight cores (CPU processors) and with eight to sixteen
gigabytes memory, which results in increasing cost for the modeling practice;
and most planning organizations do not have the needs for a high-end server
other than running transportation model, which is a waste of investment.
3. Limited sharing of transportation models: the purpose of transportation modeling
is to develop tools that improve the transportation planning process in which the
modeler provides better tools through a model for the planner to apply in the
practical scenarios for transportation planning; however, the lack of software
licensing and accessibility of a desktop computer has limited planners to access
such tools in their planning practices.
It is apparent that desktop-based transportation modeling software is becoming a
bottleneck for many transportation planning organizations to improve transportation
modeling practices. Searching for new technology to improve transportation modeling
software has been a central topic in the transportation modeling software industry.

“CLOUD COMPUTING-”BASED INTERNET SOLUTION FOR

TRANSPORTATION MODELING
The Internet has been around for many years with one capability being to
connect people from around world in the “virtual” space improving the communication
of information. As the Internet has evolved, many new technologies based on the
Internet have emerged to provide and distribute information and services in the virtual
world to improve communications and collaboration; “Cloud Computing” is one of these
kinds of technology.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1088
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What is “Cloud Computing”?

Cloud Computing is Internet- ("cloud-") based development and use of computer
technology ("computing.") It implements a new supplement, consumption, and delivery
model for IT services based on the Internet, and it typically involves the provision of
dynamically scalable and often virtualized resources as a service over the Internet.
Cloud Computing provides a more flexible approach for deploying and scaling
applications on Internet. Cloud computing changes how we invent, develop, deploy,
scale, update, maintain, and pay for applications and the infrastructure on which they run.
“Cloud Computing” Concept
There are two key phrases in “Cloud Computing:” Virtualized Resources and
On-Demand Services.
Virtualized Resources enables a dynamic datacenter where servers provide a
pool of resources that are harnessed as needed, and where the relationship of
applications to compute, storage, and network resources changes dynamically in order to
meet both workload and business demands. With application deployment decoupled
from server deployment, applications can be deployed and scaled rapidly, without
having to first procure physical servers.
On-Demand Services built on Cloud Computing environments are such that the
underlying computing infrastructure is used only when it is needed (for example to
process a user request), draw the necessary resources on-demand (like compute servers
or storage), perform a specific job, then relinquish the unneeded resources and often
dispose themselves after the job is done. These services are broadly divided into three
categories: Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS), Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) and
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), as seen in Figure 1.
1. Infrastructure-as-a-Service, like Amazon Web Services, provides virtual server
instances with unique IP addresses and blocks of storage on demand. Customers
use the provider's application program interface (API) to start, stop, access, and
configure their virtual servers and storage.
2. Platform-as-a-service in the cloud is defined as a set of software and product
development tools hosted on the provider's infrastructure. Developers create
applications on the provider's platform over the Internet. PaaS providers may use
APIs, website portals, or gateway software installed on the customer's computer.
Google Apps are examples of PaaS.
3. Software-as-a-service cloud model is defined by the vendor supplying the
hardware infrastructure and the software product and interacting with the user
through a front-end portal. Because the service provider hosts both the
application and the data, the end user is free to use the service from anywhere.
“Software-as-a-Service” Concept
“Software-as-a-Service” (SaaS) is a software deployment model by which a
software provider licenses an application to customers for use as a service on demand.
SaaS enables customers to utilize an application on a pay-as-you-use basis and
eliminates the need to install and run the application on the customer’s own hardware.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1089
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Customers generally access the application via a Web browser or thin client over the
Internet. SaaS is most often subscription-based and all ongoing support, maintenance,
and upgrades are provided by the software vendor as part of the service. The architecture
of SaaS can be illustrated in Figure 2.

Figure 1. Cloud Computing Architecture.

Figure 2. SaaS Architecture.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1090
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The SaaS is a complete new model for software usage. Normally when a user
wants to use a software, he or she has to go through a process of purchasing a license,
installing, running, and maintaining software (upgrades or installing patches). With the
SaaS, a user only subscribes to the software service and uses the software with a web
browser, just like using a cell phone, eliminating the need to install and run the
application on the customer's own computer, thus alleviating the burden of software
maintenance, ongoing operation, and support, and reducing the cost for purchasing
multiple software licenses and software upgrades.
Why Cloud Computing?
What benefits can users get from “Cloud Computing?” The following are some
examples of business benefits users will get using software built from “Cloud
Computing” technology.
1. Almost zero upfront infrastructure investment: with the shifting of computer
resources to a “Cloud Computing” environment, there is no upfront cost for
infrastructure investment.
2. Just-in-time Infrastructure: by deploying applications in the cloud with dynamic
capacity management software, you don’t have to worry about pre-procuring
capacity for large scale systems. The solutions are low risk because you scale
only as you grow. Cloud Architectures can relinquish infrastructure in minutes,
as quickly as you got them in the first place (in minutes).
3. More efficient resource utilization: with a Cloud Architectures, system
administrators can manage resources more effectively and efficiently by having
the applications request and relinquish resources only when needed (on-demand).
4. Usage-based costing: in a Cloud Architectures application, the customer uses a
third party infrastructure and gets billed only for the fraction of it that was used,
which is a significant difference from desktop applications and web applications
which run on customer’s own infrastructure (PC or server).
5. Potential for shrinking the processing time: the Cloud Architectures provides the
application with the ability to exploit parallelization in a cost-effective manner
reducing the total processing time; it would be possible to spawn and launch
multiple instances to process the same job with less running time.
What is a “Cloud Computing-”based Internet Solution for Transportation
Modeling?
The “Cloud Computing-”based Internet solution for transportation modeling is a
SaaS model in which transportation modeling software is provided as a service in a
“Cloud Computing” environment (public or private) through the Internet. It combines
both Internet technology and “Cloud Computing” technology to allow users to run and
access complex transportation models through a web browser over the Internet.
The “Cloud Computing-”based Internet solution combines Internet technologies,
cost benefit models, and collaboration models for transportation planning organizations,
providing a new way of transportation modeling and promoting better communications
and collaboration between modelers, planners, decision makers, and the general public.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1091
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Concept of “Cloud Computing-”based Internet Solution for Transportation

Modeling
The “Cloud Computing-”based Internet solution for transportation modeling
represents a revolutionary change in terms of software architecture for transportation
modeling software. This change involves four major shifts in software architecture
design for transportation modeling: 1) shift from an “expert-based” approach to a
“public- based” approach to integrate less experienced users in the planning process; 2)
shift from desktop based software to Internet-based software to allow users to run and
access complex transportation models through a Web browser; 3) shift from fixed
computing resource (e.g., single desktop or fixed server cluster) to dynamically scalable
and often virtualized resources in a “Cloud Computing” environment; and 4) shift from a
pay-for-software business model to a pay-for-service business model.
Shift from expert-based approach to public-base approach
The purpose of transportation modeling is to provide better tools for
transportation planners to apply in the practical scenarios for transportation planning.
Normally, transportation modeling practice has two stages: the model development stage
and model application stage. In the model development stage, modelers will apply their
expert knowledge to develop sophisticated transportation models using transportation
modeling software; while in the model application stage, transportation planners will
apply the model for the complex scenarios in the transportation planning studies. A
transportation planner may not have expert knowledge on transportation modeling but
will access and use the model for transportation planning studies, so as to transportation
management official and the general public.
The “Cloud Computing-”based Internet solution moves transportation models
from the modeler’s desktop or server to an online model repository for sharing and
running scenarios, which makes the complex transportation models available to non-
expert planners, decision makers, and the general public over Internet to apply the model
to transportation scenarios, make better decisions, and improve our transportation
system.
Shift from desktop-based software to Internet-based software
As indicated above, desktop-based transportation software has limited non-expert
planners, management officials, and the general public to access and apply the
transportation models developed by the experts.
The Internet-based solution is not a simple web application; it combines simple
web browser-based application and complex transportation modeling software
components. The browser-based application provides a simple interface for users to
enter user-specified data and to define user scenarios; while transportation modeling
software components provide complex algorithms and logics to run a transportation
model.
The Internet-based solution simplifies access to transportation models and
connects the general public with transportation modeling experts, improving
communication of information and collaboration.
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Shift from fixed computing resources to dynamic, virtualized resources

With the “Cloud Computing” technology, computer resources are no longer the
bottleneck for developing and applying complex transportation models.
The “Cloud Computing-”based solution deploys transportation modeling
software in a “Cloud Computing” capable facility with high-end computing power
(servers), rich storage spaces, secure network environment, and experienced
maintenance staff.
The resources virtualization in “Cloud Computing” allows transportation
modeling software to dynamically allocate computing resources (servers and storage)
on-demand to perform a specific job and then relinquish the unneeded resources and
often dispose themselves after the job is done.
Shift from pay-for-software to pay-for-service
The traditional “pay-for-software” business model has been the only way for
transportation modeling software in decades. Users have to pay the high cost for
software licenses and software upgrades. Most desktop-based transportation software is
single-user based; if there are multiple users in an organization, multiple licenses have to
be purchased. And, once a while, software vendors will upgrade the software to newer
versions, leaving users to pay maintenance fees for free upgrades or pay full licenses
for newer versions.
The “Cloud Computing-”based solution introduces a new model called “pay-for-
service.” With the “pay-for-service” business model, since the transportation software is
deployed and hosted at a “Cloud Computing” facility, users do not pay for the software
(no software purchased), only paying for time spent on running a model or for a
subscription, similar to using a cell phone. Thus there is no cost for multiple licenses and
upgrades. The “pay-for-service” model also eliminates the frustrations many users have
experienced in configuring software installation.
“Cloud Computing-”based Internet Solution Architecture
Compared to desktop-based transportation modeling software, the key
architectural changes of the “Cloud Computing-”based Internet solution include, as
illustrated in Figure 3:
1. Software deployment model: transportation software is deployed as services in a
“Cloud Computing” facility.
2. Software Interface: it is a browser-based application which provides common
browser look-and- feel, and task- and process-driven interfaces to simplify
transportation modeling processes.
3. Process model and Collaboration model: the “Cloud Computing-”based Internet
solution clearly defines the roles of modeler and the roles of planner and the
collaboration process between modelers and planners.
4. Access for transportation models: transportation models are moved from the
modeler’s desktop or server to an online model repository for sharing and
running scenarios.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1093
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Figure 3. System architecture of “Cloud Computing” based

Internet Solution for Transportation Modeling.

“Cloud Computing-”Based Internet Solution Process Flow

The architectural changes in the “Cloud Computing-”based Internet solution also
changes the process flow for transportation modeling practices, as illustrated in Figure 4.

Figure 4. “Cloud Computing-”based Internet solution process flow.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1094
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Within this process flow, the significant changes for modeler are 1) publish
model and 2) define user and model access. The modeler needs to publish the model to
an online model repository for sharing; however, due to some security concerns, the
modeler will also define who can access and use the model; some users may only access
the model to view the results, while some users may be able to upload their own data
and define their own scenarios to run the model. In other words, the modeler has the
control of model sharing.
For planners, the process simplifies the access to the model and their task to
apply the model to their planning scenarios, which significantly improves the
communications and collaboration between modeler and planner.
The process also includes administrative roles to manage models, data and users,
and monitor the process.

TRANSPORTATION MODELING SOFTWARE AS SERVICE FOR

TRANSPORTATION PLANNING ORGANIZATIONS
The “Cloud Computing-”based Internet solution provides transportation
modeling software as services for transportation modeling users. What does this mean
for a transportation planning organization?
1. It means that the transportation organization does not need to pay for
transportation software licenses and computing infrastructure, which is a
significant cost saving.
2. It means that it provides better communication and collaboration between the
members of the transportation planning team: the modelers, planners, and
decision makers within the organization.
3. It means a business model change for paying transportation modeling software,
i.e. change from “pay-for-software” to “pay-for-service,” you only pay for the
time you use the service; no software purchase; no maintenance fees. You pay
subscription fees or “pay-as-you-use,” which is a significant help for the budget
approval process in an organization when a high cost of software purchase is
eliminated in the budget.
The First “Cloud Computing-”Based Internet Solution for Transportation
Modeling – Mint
Mint, i.e. Modeling on the Internet, developed by Citilabs, is the first “Cloud
Computing-”based Internet Solution for Transportation Modeling. It is a web-based,
hosted, scalable platform for transportation modeling that provides transportation
planning organizations with software-as-a-service (SaaS) benefit. The initial intent for
Mint is to become the vehicle to link modelers with the planners, decision makers, and
the general public. From the initial testing period of Mint, many users have realized the
benefits of Mint, the simplicity of the modeling process, the user-friendly interface, and
the speed of running a complex model, as well as the “no software” modeling services.
Mint is hosted at Amazon’s EC2 facility, one of the first “Cloud Computing”
facilities in the world, with unlimited, dynamically-scalable resources for computer
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1095
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servers, processors, memories, and storage spaces. The new “cost-for-service” business
model also provides significant savings for transportation planning organizations.
What’s behind Mint is the change of transportation software deployment model.
As indicated in the figure below, when deployed in the “Cloud Computing” environment,
transportation modeling software (Cube) functions become “loosely coupled”
components to accomplish modeling tasks commanded by process controller, and the
cluster engine orchestrates parallel processing to run multiple tasks at same time which
significantly reduces running time for a complex transportation model.

Figure 5. Mint Architecture.

With the initial version of the Mint, a modeler develops a transportation model
using the desktop-based transportation modeling software Cube; once it is developed,
the modeler publishes the model out onto the Internet. The models, Cube modeling
software, and all input and out data for all of the scenarios are accessed through the
Internet. The Mint application can be customized to a specific transportation planning
organization (see Figure 6).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1096
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Figure 6. Mint Application Example.

By using Mint, the models have been moved from modeler’s desktop or server to
something that can be easily shared –the beginning of collaboration. This means a
couple of things: the model can be shared with other people besides the modeler, and the
model can be shared with the modeling/planning/ GIS teams. The team can be anywhere
in the world but connected through Internet.
CONCLUSION
The “Cloud Computing-”based Internet solution presents significant advantages
over the traditional desktop-based transportation modeling software. It overcomes the
desktop-based transportation modeling software’s requirement of high-cost computing
resources for running transportation models; it promotes better communications and
collaboration between modelers, planners, decision makers, and the general public; it
provides significant cost savings on computer resources and software licenses for a
transportation planning organization; and, it changes the way transportation modeling
software is deployed and utilized. It is a new way of practicing transportation modeling
for a transportation planning organization.

REFERENCES
Clarke, Michael. (2009). “Moving from Modeling to Collaborative Transportation
Planning Online with Mint”. Modeling Transport, A Citilabs Publication.
“Architectural Strategies for Cloud Computing”, An Oracle Whitepaper in Enterprise
Architecture, August 2009.
Varia, Jinesh. (2008). “Cloud Architecture”, Amazon Web Services.
http://jineshvaria.s3.amazonaws.com/public/cloudarchitectures-varia.pdf.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1097
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Calculation of Long Range Cruise Performance Based on the BADA Model

Zhi-qiang WEI1, Chao WANG2, Fei LIU1

1
School of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin,
300300, China; PH: (022)24092905; FAX: (022)24092905; email:
kgxy2001@eyou.com
2
Civil Aviation College, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,
Nanjing, China; email: weizhiqia@sina.com

ABSTRACT
The method of high-accuracy and high-speed calculation of flight
performance data is the key point of air traffic automation and simulations. The Base
of Aircraft Data (BADA) performance model provided by the Euro-control
Experiment Centre (EEC) has been widely used by international research
organizations to calculate the aircraft performance data. The mode can calculate the
fixed mach number cruise data, but it cannot calculate the long range cruise mode
(LRC) flight data as is mostly adopted by the airlines in order to save fuel or flight
cost. Based on the BADA model and related parameters, this paper studies the
methods used to calculate the LRC cruise mach number, and also calculates the data
for the B737-800 aircraft. The results are compared with calculations obtained by
INFLT in the same conditions, which shows that the accuracy and calculating speed
can be accepted by the research of ATC automation and simulations. The flight
modes between fixed cruise mach number and LRC are also compared in the end,
which shows that the LRC cruise mode can decrease the operation cost for airlines
by saving cruise fuel consumption.

INTRODUCTION
The method of high-accuracy and high-speed calculation of flight
performance data is the key point of air traffic control’s (ATC) four-dimensional
trajectory prediction (Swierstra et al., 2003). To meet the requirement of ATC
research, Euro-control Experiment Centre (EEC) in France has been developing and
improving the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) models (Euro-control, 2004).
Through the numerical simulation of the performance raw data that are included in
Flight Manuals, Performance Engineers Manuals, and other documents of each
aircraft type, over 100 simplified performance basic data have been obtained to
replace thousands of raw data from aircraft manufacturers (Euro-control, 2004).
These basic data include pneumatic data, propulsion data, fuel-consumption data,
limitation data, operation data, etc. Aircraft performance data can then be calculated
with these basic data and BADA simplified calculation model of aircraft performance
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1098
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(Wang, 2009). Using fewer raw data allows this method to calculate much more
quickly than performance software of aircraft manufacturers, so as to meet the
requirement of ATC four-dimensional trajectory prediction. It has also found
applications in O4D of BARCO, CTAS of NASA and other ATC automatic systems
(Suckhov et al., 2003).
Fuel cost is the primary controllable cost in flight operation. To save money
in the situation without ATC intervention, long range cruise mode (LRC) is
commonly adopted (Chen, 2007). However, the BADA model can only predict cruise
time and fuel use of the fixed mach number cruise, which are far different from
actual operation data. The performance software provided by aircraft manufacturers
can accurately calculate performance data in different cruise modes (Wei, 2005), but
due to the large number of raw data input and the tedious and slow calculation, the
software cannot be used in ATC automation and simulation systems (Boeing
Company, 2007).
Therefore, it is necessary to do research on calculating LRC performance data
based on the BADA model, and to compare the calculated results with those that are
obtained by aircraft manufacturers’ software. The simulating calculation of B737-800
has been done, and the results are basically the same as what INFLT of Boeing
obtained.
CALCULATION METHOD AND THEORETICAL BASIS
Theoretically, the minimum fuel cost corresponds to the maximum cruise
speed of the fuel mileage (the flying distance with unit of fuel consumption).
However, because this speed is close to the abnormal control zone, the control and
stability is poor. The aircraft needs to accelerate and decelerate frequently with the
environment changes, so the actual fuel consumption might be higher. Therefore, a
method with loss of 1 percent of the fuel mileage in exchange for a larger cruising
speed (LRC) has been widely used in the actual flight operation (Wei, 2005).
Calculation method of reference cost
According to the BADA simplified performance model (Euro-control, 2004),

the drag coefficient can be expressed as the square formula of CL :

CD  CD 0  CD 2CL2

Then, in the cruise phase, the drag D can be expressed as:

V 2 SW C D  C  C D 2C L 2 
D   mg  D0 
2  CL 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1099
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 kP  S M 2 2m 2 g 2 
 0 w CD0  CD 2 
 2 kP0 S w M 2
 (1)

CD 0 CD 2 is a
In the formula above, is the zero-lift drag coefficient;
constant related with the aircraft aerodynamic performance; m is the aircraft mass; g

is the acceleration of gravity; k is the adiabatic coefficient of air, which is 1.4.  is

the ratio of the atmospheric pressure in the flight level to the standard atmospheric

pressure;
P0 is the standard atmospheric pressure; SW is the wing area; M is

cruise Mach.
According to the BADA model, the fuel flow of aircraft can be expressed as:
W f  D c fc

That is:
c f 1  VT 
Wf  1   Dc fc
1000  c f 2 
(2)
c c c
Where W f is fuel flow; f 1 , f 2 and fc are fitting parameters of engine

fuel consumption, which are dependent on the aircraft type;

VT is true airspeed in

knots.

To facilitate the purpose of calculating, the cruise fuel mileage

FM can be

deduced as follow:
VT M a0  * 60
FM  
Wf cf1  M a0  
1  c
1000 
  c f 2 * 1 .8 5 2 / 3 .6   fc
M a0  * 60

cf1  M a0    kP  S w M 2 2m 2 g 2 
1   0 CD0  C D 2  c fc
1000 
  c f 2 * 1 .8 5 2 / 3 .6    2 k P0  S w M 2

(3)

Where  is the ratio of temperature; 0 is the speed of sound in sea level.

a

Calculation method of economic cruise mach number

The cruise mach number corresponding to the maximum fuel mileage is the
MRC cruise mach number, which is the basis of calculating LRC cruise mach
number. Thus we can take the derivative of formula (3), and let the derivative be 0,
then MRC speed can be obtained. That is:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1100
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d FM
 0
dM
Then:
  8 *1.852
 4C D2 m 2 g 2  C D 0 k 2 P02 S w 2 2 M 4   2  a0 M 

1.852
3.6
cf 2  
 3.6
c f 2C D 2 m 2 g 2
(4)
When choosing the cruise mach number, all the limitations such as stall,
stability and thrust have to be considered. As a result, the search range has to be

defined, （ M MIN ， M MO ）, where M MIN

is minimum flight mach number and M MO
is
maximum flight mach number. Dichotomy and other methods can be used to

calculate the maximum mileage mach number M M according to the formula above,

then substituting M M in formula (3) can calculate the corresponding maximum fuel
mileage.
Calculation method of economic cruise optimal altitude

With the LRC cruising mach number M L , the corresponding fuel mileage is

99% of FMM , and M L is greater than M M , therefore, the search range can be

narrowed as ( M M , M MO ). Then:

Ma0  *60
f M  
cf 1  Ma0    kP  S M 2 2m2 g 2 
1   0 w CD 0  CD 2  c fc
1000   c f 2 *1.852 / 3.6    2 kP0 Sw M 2 
  (5)
The process of calculating LRC speed using the method of dichotomy is as
follow:

(1) Let M 0  M M , calculate fuel mileage f M0 

according to formula (5);

(2) Let M 1  X MX , calculate fuel mileage f  M1 

according to formula (5), if

f  M 1   0.99 FMM
, it shows that LRC cruise speed is theoretically greater than the

maximum flight mach number, so let M L  M1 to end the iteration, or else follow the
next step;
(M0  M1)
calculate fuel mileage f  M according to formula (5);
M
(3) Let 2.0 ,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1101
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If f  M   0.99 FMM , then M 0  M , if not, M 1  M . If

M 1  M 0  0.0001
(4) ,
M0  M1
M L 
then 2 .0 , end the iteration; Otherwise return to step (3) and go on with the
iteration.
DATA ANALYSIS
Comparison of economic cruise mach number calculation
According to the calculation method above, the performance data of Boeing
737-800 (CFM56-7B24) has been calculated by DELPHI7.0. The basic performance
parameters of the aircraft type are taken from BADA model as follows (Euro-control,
2004):
Table 1. Basic Parameter Coming from BADA Model.
Operation
Parameters Pneumatic parameters Fuel parameters
parameters
CD 0 CD 2 SW cf 1 cf 2 c fc MR MM0
Value 0.02 0.06 125 0.87 1000 1.0 0.79 0.82

Table 2 shows the contrast of the calculated data with the result of Boeing
INFLT with ISA, different mass and different pressure altitudes of 8400m, 8900m,
9500m and 10100m. As shown, the deviation of LRC mach number calculated is
basically within 5 percent, which can of course meet the accuracy requirement of
ATC simulation.
Table 2. Comparison of the Calculated Mach Data.

Mass (kg) 4000 66000 68000 70000 72000 74000 76000 78000

Calculated data 0.700 0.705 0.724 0.730 0.733 0.742 0.752 0.761
8400 INFLT data 0.690 0.701 0.713 0.724 0.735 0.744 0.752 0.758
Deviation 1.45% 0.57% 1.54% 0.83% -0.33% -0.26% -0.07% 0.36%
Calculated data 0.754 0.734 0.744 0.754 0.764 0.774 0.779 0.780
8900 INFLT data 0.724 0.736 0.746 0.754 0.76 0.766 0.771 0.774
Deviation 4.14% -0.34% -0.29% 0.01% 0.55% 1.06% 1.04% 0.75%
Calculated data 0.755 0.766 0.777 0.779 0.78 0.783 0.785 0.79
9500 INFLT data 0.754 0.761 0.767 0.772 0.775 0.779 0.782 0.785
Deviation 0.13% 0.66% 1.30% 0.91% 0.65% 0.51% 0.38% 0.64%
Calculated data 0.779 0.781 0.783 0.784 0.786 0.79 0.799 0.801
10100 INFLT data 0.772 0.776 0.78 0.783 0.787 0.79 0.792 0.794
Deviation 0.91% 0.64% 0.38% 0.13% -0.13% 0.00% 0.88% 0.88%
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1102
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Comparison of economic cruise optimal altitude calculation

According to Table 2, it is shown that LRC cruise speed depends on the mass if
the other parameters remain the same. For inter-control area long range flights, the
mach number must be changed over the different control areas. Therefore, it is not
accurate to calculate the cruise parameters with a fixed mach number M R (0.79 for
B737-800).
The influence of different cruise modes of B737-800 (with the range or flight
distance of 2000 km) has been shown in Table 3. Other conditions are as follows:
cruise altitude of 8400 m, ISA+10, tail wind 50m/s, initial cruise mass of 70 ton.
Table 3. Data Comparison for Difference Cruise Mode.
Long Range Cruise Mode Fixed Mach Number Cruise Mode Time
Fuel Fuel deviatio
Mach Time Mass Mach Time Mass
Distance Mileage Mileage n
number (min) (ton) number (min) (ton)
(km) (m/kg) (m/kg) (min)
100 0.777 6.99 69.543 219.2 0.79 6.89 69.542 218.7 0.1
200 0.774 14.01 69.087 220.1 0.79 13.77 69.086 219.6 0.24
300 0.772 21.05 68.634 221.1 0.79 20.66 68.631 220.4 0.39
400 0.769 28.11 68.183 222 0.79 27.55 68.178 221.2 0.56
500 0.767 35.19 67.733 223 0.79 34.43 67.727 222.1 0.76
600 0.765 42.3 67.286 223.9 0.79 41.32 67.278 222.9 0.98
700 0.762 49.42 66.84 224.9 0.79 48.2 66.83 223.7 1.22
800 0.76 56.57 66.397 225.9 0.79 55.09 66.384 224.6 1.48
900 0.757 63.74 65.955 226.9 0.79 61.98 65.939 225.4 1.76
1000 0.755 70.93 65.515 227.9 0.79 68.86 65.496 226.2 2.07
1100 0.753 78.15 65.077 228.9 0.79 75.75 65.055 227 2.4
1200 0.75 85.39 64.641 229.9 0.79 82.64 64.615 227.9 2.75
1300 0.748 92.65 64.207 230.9 0.79 89.52 64.177 228.7 3.13
1400 0.746 99.94 63.775 231.9 0.79 96.41 63.741 229.5 3.53
1500 0.743 107.24 63.345 232.9 0.79 103.29 63.306 230.3 3.95
1600 0.741 114.58 62.916 234 0.79 110.18 62.872 231.1 4.4
1700 0.739 121.93 62.49 235 0.79 117.07 62.44 231.9 4.86
1800 0.736 129.31 62.065 236 0.79 123.95 62.01 232.7 5.36
1900 0.734 136.71 61.643 237.1 0.79 130.84 61.581 233.5 5.87
2000 0.731 144.14 61.222 238.2 0.79 137.73 61.153 234.3 6.41

As shown in Table 3, LRC cruise mode can save a certain amount of fuel, but
needs more time. As a result, in order to save money pilots usually adopt LRC cruise
mode if there is no ATC intervention. Compared with fixed mach number flight, LRC
cruise needs larger amounts of time; therefore, in the process of four-dimensional
trajectory prediction, cruise parameters can not be calculated according only to the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1103
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fixed mach number provided by BADA. Moreover, the over-beacon time predicted
using LRC mach number is more reasonable.
CONCLUSION
This paper studies the methods used to calculate the LRC cruise data based on
the BADA mode, and also calculates the data for the B737-800 airplane. The
deviation of the calculated results from what Boeing INFLT obtains meets the
requirement of ATC four-dimensional trajectory prediction. Compared with the fixed
mach number cruise mode, LRC cruise mode can reduce the fuel consumption, so it
is preferred for airlines. Using fewer raw data, this method calculates much more
quickly than performance software of aircraft manufacturers, so it has found
applications in air traffic flow management system, ATC automation and relative
simulation researches.
ACKNOWLEGMENT
1. Research Fund of Civil Aviation University of China (08CAUC-E08).
2. National Natural Science Foundation of China (60972006/F01).
REFERENCES
Boeing Company. (2007). INFLT and REPORT software documentations. Boeing
Company.
Chen, Z. (2007). “Engineering of aircraft performance”. Journal of Weapon Industry,
Beijing.
Euro-control. (2004). Coverage of European air traffic with BADA 3.6, EEC Note
No. 13/04.
Euro-control. (2004). User manual for the base of aircraft data (BADA) Revision 3.6,
EEC Note No.10/04.
Suckhov, A. (2003). “Aircraft performance modeling for air traffic management
applications”. 5th USA/Europe Seminar on ATM R&D, Budapest, Hungary.
Swierstra, S., and Green, S. (2003). “common trajectory prediction capability for
decision support tools”. 5th USA/Euro-control ATM R&D Seminar,
Budapest, Hungary.
Wang, C., Guo, J., and Shen, Z. (2009). “Prediction of 4D trajectory based on basic
flight models”. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University. 4/2009, Vol
44(2):295-300, EI: 20092112092737.
Wei, Z. (2005). “Altitude capability calculation methods based on minimum flight
cost”. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Xi-an. 2005 5(2).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1104
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The Evaluation of the Road Network Reliability under the Rainfall Weather

Xiru TANG1 and Yanyan CHEN2

1
Beijing Transportation Engineering Key Laboratory, Beijing University of
technology, No. 100 Pingleyuan, Chaoyang Dist., Beijing, China; PH (8610) 6739-
1680; FAX (8610) 6739-1509; email: lilihuo@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2
Beijing Transportation Engineering Key Laboratory, Beijing University of
technology, No. 100 Pingleyuan, Chaoyang Dist., Beijing, China; PH (8610) 6739-
1680; FAX (8610) 6739-1509; email: cdyan@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
In this paper, we analyze the applicability and usage of the road network
reliability (including connect reliability, unblocked reliability as well as recovery
reliability) as the evaluating indicator of the road network, and take the influence of
rainfall weather into overall account. Taking Beijing as an example, we make an
analysis of the road network and the points which are affected by the rain easily, and
filter the key point in concerns of the significance of the node. The results will be a
good support for the government to publish the emergency plans.

INTRODUCTION
Transportation is the lifeline of the urban economic manufacture and social life,
while the changes of weather conditions directly affect all aspects of transportation.
Changes of weather conditions impact the vehicle itself, road conditions, judgment
ability in drivers, and the traveling environment of drivers and passengers. Different
elements and conditions of weather have different degrees of traffic impact. These
effects largely determine the urban road traffic conditions and road safety conditions
(Xie et al., 2001).
When it is rainy, the seeper of the road surface may cause friction coefficient
between the road surface and wheel to reduce, and the stopping distance lengthens.
Under such condition, drivers have to reduce travel speed correspondingly, and
lengthen vehicle distance to safeguard the security of service. That will create a big
discount to the road capacity. If there is seeper on the road surface, vehicles may
have the side-slipping when braking or turning, and the glitzy reflection may also
occur under the light illumination, which will affect the driver in observing the state
of roads, creating visual fatigue, and easily committing the traffic accident.
The research of the relationship between the meteorological aspect and the
transportation began in the 1980s. Through the study, Brodsky believed that the
danger of the accident caused by rainfall weather may be much more severe after
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1105
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having a section of dry weather (Brodsky et al., 1998). Eisenberg investigates the
relationship between precipitation and traffic crashes in the US during the period
1975–2000, and found a surprising negative and significant relationship between
monthly precipitation and monthly fatal crashes (Eisenberg, 2004). However, the
majority of rainfall research is still limited in the traffic accident aspect at present.
The evaluation of the road network situation under the rainfall weather is still in the
start stage. Along with economical development, the travel quality becomes more
and more important; the evaluation of the road network situation under the rainfall
weather has widespread and profound significance.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RAINFALL WEATHER TO THE ROAD
NETWORK
The rainfall intensity classification
The rainfall intensity refers to the rainfall amount in the unit time interval, by
millimeter/minute or millimeter/chronometer. China Meteorological Administration
uses the rainfall intensity standard as Table 1 shows below:
Table 1. The Rainfall Intensity Standard Used by China Meteorological
Administration (www.gov.cn).
24 hours rainfall 12 hours rainfall
object
amount (mm) amount (mm)
light rain, rain shower 0.1-9.9 ≤4.9
moderate rain 10.0-24.9 5.0-14.9
rainfall
heavy rain 25.0-49.9 15.0-29.9
intensity
rainstorm 50.0-99.9 30.0-69.9
classification
gullywasher 100.0-249.9 70.0-139.9
torrential rain ≥250.0 ≥140.0
The influence of rainfall to transportation
The influence of the rainfall on transportation mainly displays in two aspects:
on one hand, the road condition and the visibility may have obvious difference with
the normal condition during the raining process, which will have negative influence
to the transportation; on the other hand, seeper on the road surface will continue the
negative influence after the rain.
The influence of rainfall intensity to transportation
The influences on traffic levels are also different due to the different rainfall
intensity. Generally speaking, the stronger the rainfall intensity, the greater influence
will occur on the normal traffic and vehicles. At the same time, due to the decreased
visibility because of the heavy rain, the influence on traffic seems to be significant
because there are quite a lot of buildings on the urban roadway network and road
terrain is relatively low, with much more water remaining on the road. The influence
on traffic is much more serious (Xie et al, 2001).
The influence of rainfall intensity to transportation is shown in Table 2 below:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1106
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The duration of the influence

When the rain ends, the rain that remains on the road still has influence on
the traffic and it continues for a long time. Under different kinds of weather
conditions and road conditions, traffic influence lasts for different durations. If
rainfall is not heavy, little water remains on the road. When it does not rain, the
water will soon flow away or evaporate. Therefore, the influence on traffic can be
omitted and influence duration is also short.
Table 2. The Influence of Rainfall Intensity to Transportation and Road
Surface.
Reduced
rainfall the water on the
the influence on traffic proportion of
intensity road
capacity
Road surface friction coefficient
Light rain the road is wet decrease, but it has little influence 5%-10%
on traffic
Road surface friction coefficient
moderate water on the road
decrease, and wheel slip, brake 10%-25%
rain is obviously
failure
Road surface friction coefficient
so much water on
heavy rain decrease significantly, and wheel 25%-50%
the road
slip, brake failure
Much more Water submerged Vehicles running slow, traffic
50%-100%
heavy rain road disrupted
When heavy rain comes, if the urban drainage system works normally, the
water on road will also soon be excluded, so the influence duration on traffic is also
relatively short. When low-lying areas or drainage systems fail to work, some
roadway sections are easy to make deep water, which results in the water pouring
into the vehicles, engine flameout and seriously affecting traffic, even making local
traffic under congestion.
RELIABLITY EVALUATION INDEX
Conception of reliability has been used in many systems, such as electric
power, water supply, and communication system and so on. What it refers to is the
system or the unit that completes the predetermined function under the stipulation
condition and in the stipulation deadline ability. Therefore, it may be used in
evaluating complicated system's robustness. Conception of reliability has the
widespread use in the engineering technology; the early network reliability model
was mainly used in analyzing the device's active state of electronic component and
mechanical, and is spreading to other fields at present (Chen et al., 2003).
There are three reliability indexes that are suitable under the rain condition: the
connect reliability, the unblocked reliability, and the recovery reliability.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1107
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Unblocked reliability
Unblocked reliability ( Punb ) is defined as the probability that road traffic is
unblocked and stipulates time interval when the road network is used as normal
(Liang et al., 2005). When it is rainy, the water on the road surface may lead to the
reduction of the road capacity, and then break the balance of supply and demand. So
we may use the unblocked reliability index to evaluate the road network state under
the condition that the road capacity has been reduced under low intensity rainfall.
Based on the statistics method, unblocked reliability can be calculated by
Formula 1 The method to scale whether the road is unblocked can be found in
reference (Liang, 2005).
the umber of times that road section or intersection are unblocked in rush hour （1）
Punb 
the observation number of times in rush hour
Connect reliability
Connect reliability ( Pcon ) is defined as the probability that the traffic OD pairs
remain to be connected under prescriptive time and rendition. Connect reliability is
not suitable to evaluate the daily road network traffic condition, but is suitable under
extreme conditions like a natural disaster occurring, the evaluating result may satisfy
the accuracy requirement (Asakura et al., 1991; 1996). So we may use connect
reliability as the evaluation index when the rainfall makes the connection of road
network interrupted.
Based on statistics method, connect reliability can be calculated by the
Formula 2.
the umber of times that road section or intersection are connected in observation hour （2）
Punb 
the observation number of times
Recovery reliability
Prec ) is defined as the probability that the recovery
The recovery reliability (
time being within expected time (Tang et al, 2009), which could be calculated as the
Formula 3 below, the method how to scale the recovery time can be found in
reference（Tang, et al, 2009）.
the umber of times that road section or intersection recover back to the status befor the rain in except time (3)
Punb 
the observation number of times
When the rain ends, the rain that remains on the road still has influence on
the traffic and it will continue for a period of time. The road capacity will recover
from the bottom, as an index evaluating the road network state after the rain.
Recovery reliability can describe road network auto-adapted ability effectively.
Complex reliability index under rainfall weather
Reliability indexes are feasible to evaluate the road network state, but the
shortage is that each kind of reliability index is suitable only under one condition,
and cannot appraise the road network state when the road condition changes
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1108
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continuously. So it is necessary to unify all kinds of reliability indexes. Figure 1

describes each reliability index under different conditions.
rainfall weather

during the rain after the rain

low intensity rainfall heavy rain

unblocked reliability connect reliability recorvery reliability

complex reliability index

Figure 1. Complex Reliability Index under Rainfall Weather.
In the complex reliability index evaluation, normalization should be taken to
those reliability indexes. Kinds of reliability indexes are to be summarized to one
index. Expert scoring method is adopted and surveys on the travel demands in
different time are taken. Therefore, weight assignments on different reliability
indexes can be determined.
Pcom=αPrec+βPunb+γPcon (4)
where：Pcom is complex reliability index；
Prec is recovery reliability;
Punb is unblocked reliability；
Pcon is connect reliability；
α,β,γ are the weight parameters of the complex reliability index,α+β+γ=1.
Reliability index classification
Each kind of reliability index has the respective road network condition
evaluation criteria and the threshold value. According to the synthesis experiences
and investigation, we summarize the standard as shown in Table 3 (Chen et al, 2003).
Steps of the reliability evaluation under the rainfall weather are:
Step 1: Data collection is taken, which is used for reliability indexes calculating.
Step 2: It is necessary to be certain when reliability index is to be adopted,
according to the rainfall intensity. The connect reliability is adopted if heavy rain
happens, which will make the road network congested. When the rain stops, the time
which road networks need to recover to normal would be observed. Unlocked
reliability should be chosen as the evaluating index if the rainfall intensity is not
strong, and connect reliability is assumed to be zero. When the rain stops, the time
which road networks need to recover to normal would be observed.
Step 3: Data of several days are collected; unlocked reliability, connect reliability
and recovery reliability are calculated, and then inner products processed by
reliability weight coefficients. Finally the complex reliability index can be obtained.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1109
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Table 3. Reliability Value of Urban Road Units.

State description
Reliability index
Very High High General Low Very Low
unblocked
0.95~1.00 0.80~0.95 0.50~0.80 0.10~0.50 0.00~0.10
reliability
connect
0.95~1.00 0.80~0.95 0.50~0.80 0.10~0.50 0.00~0.10
reliability
recovery
0.95~1.00 0.80~0.95 0.60~0.80 0.30~0.60 0.00~0.30
reliability
complex
0.90~1.00 0.80~0.90 0.60~0.80 0.20~0.60 0.00~0.20
reliability index
data collection

rainfall intensity speed time statistics

heavy rain?

Y N
Unblocked reliability=0,calculate
connect reliability
Recovery reliability
calculation
Connect reliability =0, calculate
unblocked reliability ×
reliability weight
Expert scoring, survey
coefficients

complex reliability index

Figure 2. Flow Chart of the Reliability Evaluation.

CASE ANALYSES
Road network is a complex system in which nodes and sections connect with
each other, achieving the function of transition. Its function or reliability is restricted
by the bottle-neck section. As a result, when road network reliability evaluation is
processed, how to find out the weakness point which affects the traffic most and can
be regarded as the key point is the key issue in reliability evaluation. The key points,
maintenance and traffic improvement, are of significant importance in increasing
reliability.
Node importance
Node importance is a quantitative index which is used to evaluate the nodes
capacity of transportation and distribution in the research of traffic transportation
network. It is the basis of evaluating the importance of the civil transport hub in the
road network planning (Jia et al, 2008).
The characteristics of the node importance can be described by the traffic
capacity passing the node. The more the node capacity, the more traffic. Paralysis of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1110
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the node brings more traffic lost, which proves that the node is of importance.
Road sections with easy seeper in Beijing
There are 22 road sections with easy seeper published by Beijing Traffic
Management Bureau, and they are as follows, shown in Figure 3: Yongtaizhuang
Northern Road, Beiyuan Eastern Road, Hongjunying Southern Road, Beiyuan 4TH
Road, Nanmafang Eastern Road, Changying Western Road, Mejiadian Road,
Wujiacun Road, Fangzhuang Road Southern Extendibility, Lugouqiao Western
Crossroad, Xiaotun 3rd Road, Yongding Road Southern Extendibility, Lvjiaying
Central Road, Chaoyang Northern Road, Majialou Bridge West, Wanquanhe Bridge,
Honglingjing Bridge, South Stemu Road Demaozhuang, Tiancun Road, Huagong
Road, Fengtai Southern Railway Bridge, Zhongagongshe Bridge.

Figure 3. Road Sections with Easy Seeper in Beijing.

Unit reliability evaluation under rainfall weather
Data (June to September, 2007) collected from the floating car data and that of
the rainfall intensity gotten from the weather bureau are used. Reliability indexes are
calculated to those road sections with easy seeper under the rainfall weather. Two
thousand questionnaires and expertise are adopted in order to obtain the reliability
index weight coefficients (α=0.23, β=0.41, γ=0.36). Finally the complex reliability
indexes are solved, which are as follows.
The lower the reliability is, the weaker the road section is. Timely emergency
deals are needed when raining.
From the calculating results, we could find Fangzhuang Road Southern
Extendibility is the lowest complex reliability Index section, which is 0.29.
According to this result, the government can send more rescuing workers to
Fangzhuang Road Southern Extendibility or ask drivers to use other roads when
raining as the emergency response.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1111
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Table 4. Result Table of the Road Complex Reliability Evaluation.

complex weight
connect unlocked recovery
Num. Road Section reliability coeffic
reliability reliability reliability
Index ient
Yongtaizhuang
1 0.63 0.48 0.84 0.62 0.69
Northern Road
Beiyuan Eastern
2 0.41 0.23 0.62 0.38 0.73
Road
Hongjunying
3 0.58 0.87 0.92 0.78 0.43
Southern Road
4 Beiyuan 4th Road 0.44 0.32 0.55 0.42 0.87
Nanmafang
5 0.82 0.53 0.72 0.68 0.39
Eastern Road
Changying
6 0.79 0.64 0.91 0.76 0.52
Western Road
7 Mejiadian Road 0.66 0.61 0.79 0.67 0.44
8 Wujiacun Road 0.53 0.77 0.54 0.63 0.3
Fangzhuang Road
9 Southern 0.41 0.17 0.32 0.29 0.75
Extendibility
Lugouqiao Western
10 0.27 0.32 0.46 0.33 0.88
Crossroad
11 Xiaotun 3rd Road 0.64 0.58 0.87 0.67 0.84
Yongding Road
12 Southern 0.82 0.29 0.65 0.56 0.93
Extendibility
Lvjiaying Central
13 0.71 0.5 0.7 0.62 0.78
Road
Chaoyang
14 0.73 0.64 0.89 0.73 0.96
Northern Road
Majialou Bridge
15 0.29 0.59 0.38 0.43 0.79
West
16 Wanquanhe Bridge 0.35 0.66 0.28 0.46 0.81
Honglingjing
17 0.4 0.47 0.59 0.47 0.86
Bridge
South Stemu Road
18 0.88 0.86 0.93 0.88 0.85
Demaozhuang
19 Tiancun Road 0.36 0.39 0.61 0.43 0.48
20 Huagong Road 0.86 0.65 0.9 0.78 0.84
Fengtai Southern
21 0.42 0.28 0.37 0.35 0.76
Railway Bridge
Zhongagongshe
22 0.57 0.44 0.48 0.50 0.63
Bridge
Regional road network reliability evaluation under the rainfall weather
Road network reliability between the OD pairs for the four districts of Beijing
is calculated, which are showed in literature written by Ying Liang et al (Liang et al,
2005). In the calculation, the values obtained by the unit reliability and the basic
knowledge in network reliability are used; also the unit importance is taken into
consideration; connect reliability in road sections with easy seeper is assumed to be
the calculated value; connect reliability in other road sections is assumed to be 1;
unit connect reliability and unit recovery reliability are assumed to be the calculated
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1112
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values.
Calculation results are as follows:
Table 5. Result Table of the District Complex Reliability Evaluation.
Complex
Connect Unlocked Recovery
Num. District Reliability
Reliability Reliability Reliability
Index
Chaoyang
1 0.575 0.326 0.524 0.461
District
Haidian
2 0.598 0.249 0.566 0.452
District
3 Fengtai District 0.429 0.472 0.683 0.464
Shijingshan
4 0.317 0.404 0.562 0.409
District
According to the results above in the table, we can see that the complex
reliability index of Shijingshan District is the lowest. That is because the road
sections which are easier to seeper are centralized in this region, and most of the
roads in this region are still being built. The condition of the roads is not as good as
other regions, so when it is rainy, the road network’s service level would decrease
easily.
A look at other three districts shows that the complex reliability index of
Haidian District is the second lowest. The road section’s condition is much better
than Shijingshan District, but the traffic volume is the main factor. When it is rainy,
the contradiction between the road capacity reduction and the heavy traffic volume
destroys the supply and demand balance.
In the view of road network evaluation, the complex reliability values show
that the district road networks are all in a low reliable condition, therefore, the
important road sections especially the road sections with easy seeper need to be
improved in order to increase the road network reliability, and enhance the road
network’s service level.
CONCLUSION
As the economy develops, the demands of high quality travel increase gradually.
How to guarantee the high qualitative travel conditions becomes a big problem for
the civil traffic managers, especially in the extreme weather conditions when it’s
difficult to guarantee safe travel. How to improve the road network operation
becomes a key issue. The influences the rainfall weather brings to traffic are
analyzed. Road network operating states under the rainfall weather are evaluated
according to the reliability indexes. Complex reliability index is taken to weigh the
importance of the key point of the road network; evaluation and analysis on the
Beijing road network have been done, and some key points with easy seeper are
filtered. Some theoretic supports are given for the foundation of the emergency
response plans in Beijing.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1113
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This paper is supported by “11th Five Years” National Science and Technology plan
project (2006BAJ18B01).
REFERENCES
Asakura, Y., and Kashiwadani, M. (1991). “Road network reliability caused by daily
fluctuation of traffic flow.” 19th PTRC Summer Annual Meeting,
Proceedings Seminar G: 73-84.
Asakura Y. (1996). “Reliability measure of an origin and destination pair in a
deteriorated road network with variable flow.” Proceeding of the 4th
Meeting of the EURO Working Group in Transportation.
Brodsky, H., and Shalom, H. A. (1998). “Risk of a road accident in rainy weather.”
Accident Analysis and Prevention 20: 161-176.
Chen, Y., Gao, A., Liu, X., and Rong, J. (2003). “Summarization and expectation of
reliability assessment of road traffic performance.” Highway 10: 128-131.
Chen, Y., Liang, Y., and Du, H. (2003). “The application of reliability in the road
network performance.” China Civil Engineering Journal, 36(1): 36-40.
Eisenberg, D. (2004). “The mixed effects of precipitation on traffic crashes.”
Accident Analysis and Prevention 36: 637-647.
Jia, Q., Yan, K., Zhang, B., and Liu, J. (2008). “Research on planning of highway
transportation junction based on importance of nodes and traffic location.”
Shandong Jiaotong Keji 4: 4-9.
Liang, Y. (2005). “Urban transportation system unblocked reliability analysis and
optimization.” Beijing: Beijing University of Technology.
Liang, Y., Chen, Y., and Ren, F. (2005). “Reliability analysis of urban road network
mobility.” Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and
Development, 22 (12): 106-108.
Tang, X., and Chen, Y. (2009). “Research of the road network recovery reliability
based on DYNASMART.” Journal of Transport Information and Safety 4:
97-100.
Xie, J., Shun, S., and Meng F. (2001). “Analysis of meteorological condition to
unban traffic influence.” Jilin Qixiang 2: 37-39. Precipitation intensity rank
division standard. Website of Central Government: www.gov.cn.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1114
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A Departure Frequency Model for Double-line BRT with Genetic Algorithm

Han BAI1, Zheng-hao XIA2, Yang-dong ZHAO3, Kai-liang SONG 4

1
Department of traffic engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, 5 Jiaoxiao Rd.,
Jinan 250023, China; (PH) +86 1366 8812 554; email: bai-han2002@163.com
2
The First Highway Survey and Design Institute of China Co., Ltd., 259 West Youyi
Rd., Xi’an 710068, China; (PH) +86 1357 2013 118
3 The First Highway Survey and Design Institute of China Co., Ltd., 63 Keji Rd.,
Xi’an 710075, China; (PH) +86 1582 9244 017; email: hityangdong@163.com
4
The First Highway Survey and Design Institute of China Co., Ltd., 63 Keji Rd.,
Xi’an 710075, China; (PH) +86 1357 2017 776; email: songkl2005@163.com

ABSTRACT
Following the No 1 Line of the BRT (bus rapid transit) in Jinan, a double-
line project started its operation in North Park Street, Jinan. An important issue is
how to make the scheduling table. Longer departure intervals always cause
passengers to wait for an unacceptable long time and provide uncomfortable service.
On the other hand, shorter intervals increase the operating costs of bus companies.
Therefore, with the survey of passenger distribution, a departure frequency model of
BRT is proposed based on Genetic Algorithm so as to determine the bus scheduling
index at different time and provide efficient operation for No 1 Line BRT.

INTRODUCTION
For protecting underground springs, rail transit development is limited in
Jinan. Hence, BRT is becoming the most practical and viable way to resolve the
current urban traffic congestion. Since 2005, with the Energy Foundation’s support,
the BRT (bus rapid transit) project was given a great deal of help and guidance by
Brazilian experts in Jinan City, Shandong Province, China. It has been gradually
growing in the provincial capital. The planners of Jinan City, taking into account the
future development and urban east-west channel factors such as scarcity of resources,
decided to build an expressway and a BRT line of 13.02 kilometers in North Park
Street. A reasonable design scheme of bus departure frequency in BRT line is needed
urgently to ensure efficient operations. Appropriate buses configuration and
reasonable time intervals can reduce passengers’ waiting time and improve
economic benefits of bus companies, which will greatly satisfy both passengers and
bus companies (Levinsonet al., 2003,(Last et al., 1976).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1115
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PERIOD FLOW OF BRT STOPS

The 1st line of BRT in North Park Street, from Huang Gang in the west to the
Quanfu overpass in the east, carries out a "closed" operation mode with a total
length of 11.55 kilometers. Along the way, 19 stops are set. They are Huang Gang
road, east of Huang Gang road, institute of transportation, western district, Wu Ying
Shan road, east road of Wu Ying Shan, long-distance bus station, Dong Gong Shang
He road, three hole bridge, north exit of production road, north road of BeiGuan, Li
Huang road, Dong Luo He road, Li Shan road, north street of station, south Quan Fu
street, north Quan Fu, west of QuanFu overpass and QuanFu overpass. Based on the
historical traffic data of each stop and statistical passenger flow volume every period
of time, histograms of passenger flow volume are worked out. The width and height
of the histogram show the average passenger flow volumes on the buses in 30
minutes. Then take the midpoint of each histogram and make a cubic spine
interpolation to get all-day traffic curve.

DEPARTURE FREQUENCY MODEL FOR DOUBLE- LINE BRT

Buses’ arrival time. Because of adopting the "closed" operation mode in the
North Park street BRT line, buses run in the special path, not be influenced by other
vehicles and non-motor vehicles. At the same time, the traffic lights will also adjust
phase according to the buses’ arriving time, so that buses can priority drive.
Following formula express the time to each bus station of BRT network (Chien, et
al., 2004).

 k j 1
t kj   s 
t  Ti ,i 1  qi t q  tt j  1
k

i 1
(1)
 j 1
t sk

Where: t kj ——Arrival time of No. k at stop j ;

tsk ——Departure time of No. k;
Ti,i+1 ——Fixed run-time of bus between stop j and j  1 ;
q ki ——The passenger flow volume when bus of No. k arrive at stop i ;
tq ——Time for unit passenger flow volume to get on the bus (seconds);
tt ——Delay time for bus to slow down and speed up at a bus stop (seconds).
Passengers’ waiting time. While passengers arrived at bus stops at random
times, the analysis results of large samples show that the arrival numbers of the
passengers generally appear uniformity in each stop. Thus, it is assumed that
passengers reach uniformly between two adjacent interval times when calculating
passengers’ waiting time for each stop. The formula is showed as follows (Herbert
al., 2003).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1116
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NF M
TW   0.5qik  tik 1,k (2)
k＝1 I 1

Where: TW ——The sum of passengers waiting time;

t k-1,k
i —— Departure time interval between bus of No. k and the last one;

M ——The set of all stops on the line;

NF ——The total number of departure times a day.
The calculation of t k-1,k
i is showed as the following formula.
t k  t k 1 k  1
tik 1,k＝ i k i (3)
 ti  tb k  1
Where: tb——Time that buses began operating every day.
Operation benefit of BRT. Operation benefit formula of BRT is showed as
below (Anthony A., Saka, 2001).
TD TD
R＝  1  V jt  2  NV    3  f t (4)
jM t 1 iL t 1

Where: R ——Operating earnings every day;

TD ——Operation hours;
f t ——departure frequency in the period t;
t
Vj ——Passenger flow rate of time t in stop j ;
γ1 ——Uniform fare (Yuan);
γ2 ——Depreciation expense of fixed costs (Yuan/ bus day);
γ3 ——Bus operating costs (Yuan/ bus).
Mathematical model. To the passengers, the larger start frequency of buses
means the smaller total waiting time; To the bus companies, if the passenger flow
volume is fixed, the greater departure time interval means the higher operating
efficiency. This has created contradiction between passengers’ waiting time and
operating efficiency of bus companies. For this multi-objective planning, weighted
both is adopted as an objective function in this paper (Bai, 2007).
NF M TD TD
min TF  FC   0.5q  t k 1,k
 FB  (   1  V  2  NV    3  f t )
k t
i i j
T jM t 1 iL t 1
K 1 i 1 (5)
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 N F k 1,k
  t1  TD
 k 1
 tik
s.t qik   k 1 si (t )dt i  1,2,  , M k  1,2,  , N F

ti

 f t  Ns j jM t  1,2,  , TD
 t1k 1,k  Tmax k  1,2,  , N F
(6)
Where: TF ——Weighted difference between passengers waiting time and operating
income;
T ——Decision variable, departure cycle;
FC ——Weight of the total time for the passengers waiting for a bus;
FB ——Weight of BRT operating efficiency;
Nsj —— capacity of stop j;
si(t) ——Passenger arrival rate function of stop i;
tk-1,k
1 ——Departure time interval;
Tmax ——Maximum departure time interval (minutes).
Objective function is to minimize difference value between passengers’
waiting time and operating income; The first constraint means that the sum of all
departure time interval is the operating time; The second constraint is the calculating
formula of flow; The third constraint is the maximum traffic capacity of a stop; The
fourth constraint is the maximum departure time interval.

DEPARTURE FREQUENCY BASED ON GENETIC ALGORITHM

Introduction of genetic algorithm. The idea of genetic algorithm is based
on Darwin's theory of evolution and Mendel's genetic theory. Survival of the fittest
theory is the most important in Darwin's theory of evolution. It believes that every
species will adapt to the environment better and better in developing. The basic
characteristics of each individual inherit future generations, but future generations
will have some new changes different from the parents. When an environment
changes, only those who can adapt to the environment can be preserved. The most
important of the Mendel's genetic theory is genetic principle. It is thought that
heredity which contains in chromosomes in the form of genes exists in cells in the
form of passwords. Each gene has a special place to control a particular nature. Thus,
individuals generated by each gene have some adaptability to the environment.
Future generations who can adapt the environment better will appear for gene
mutation and genomic hybridization. After nature's survival of the fittest, the genetic
structure with a high adaptability will be preserved.
Initial solutions. Using natural number coding, the operating time of No.1
BRT is from 5:30 to 21:30 in North Park Street every day, divide the time into 32
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time periods and suppose that passenger flow arrival rate is fixed in every period.
That is, the length of chromosome is 32, gene i indicates departure number in period
i. Be sure initial departure number NF0, the sum of all genes is the number of
departure times all day. Therefore, the initial departure number in period i is showed
as follows.
Qi
Nsi ＝ N F 0  Nr
(7)
Q
j 1
j

Where: Nsi ——Departure times in period i;

NF0 ——Initial departure number every day;
Nr —— Number of time periods divided in a day, 32 is done;
Qi —— Sum of passenger flow volume at all stops in period i.
Fitness function. To link closely between fitness function and optimization
targets, the approach is that constraint condition is added to the optimization target
function as a penalty item and negative value of optimization target function is acted
as fitness function.
NF M TD TD
f j  ( FC   0.5q  t k
i i
k 1,k
 FB  (   1  V  2  NV    3  f t )
t
j
K 1 i 1 jM t 1 iL t 1

TD TD
 b   max(0, t1k 1,k  Tmax ) c   max(0, f t  NS j )) (8)
k 1 t 1

Where: fj ——fitness of jth chromosome.

The first and second of it are target functions , the third is the penalty value
because of violating maximum departure intervals and the fourth is the penalty cost
expended for violating maximum traffic capacity of the stop. Coefficient b and c are
all constants.
Crossover. Although there are many ways to operate crossover, their
principle is almost the same. Substance is to select two parent individuals from the
sample pool, and then randomly swap few of these to generate new offspring
individuals who inherit the parents’ genetic information.
Following conclusions obtained from analyzing: the essence of crossover in
genetic algorithm is that offspring individuals are the results of parent individuals
doing large probability mutation in a small range.
Mutation. Crossover means that genes who are from initial population
exchange among chromosomes, so it is impossible to produce new genes. Mutation
breaks through this limitation. Absolutely, it is becoming possible that new genes
will appear in the population. Mutation methods and steps are as follows:
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(1) Randomly choose a gene in chromosome i;

(2) Randomly select r  1,2,3;
(3) a1  a  r ;
(4) if a  0 , be a ;
(5)Calculate fitness f1 after gene i changed;
(6) a 2  a  r ;
(7)Calculate fitness f 2 after gene i changed;
(8) if f1 > f 2 , a1 : a  r ; else a1 : a  r ;
(9) End.
Departure frequency calculation steps of North Park Street BRT. Main
steps showed as below:
a) Choose parameters, generate initial population, set evolutionary
generation number i=0;
b) i:=i+1;
c) Using Roulette Methods to choose chromosome for crossover and
mutation;
d) Do crossover and mutation;
e) If the optimal solution is no change for continuous 100 generations,
continue, else turn to b;
f) End algorithm.
As there are 40 buses with the length of 12 m and 15 buses with the length of
18 m in North Park Street. It is supposed that the most actual load of the bus is v in
the process of genetic algorithm, the rated load of 12 m is settled as c1, and 18 m is
c2. The rated load of 18 m is as the calculation indicator in this paper. When v < c1,
the bus of 12 m will be started.
DEPARTURE FREQUENCY FOR DOUBLE-LINE BRT
The initial settings. Stops, data of service frequency and settings of genetic
algorithm parameters are showed in Table 1.
CONCLUSION
As the coexistence of expressway and BRT in North Park Street, Jinan city,
there are many great different traffic characteristics compared to other roads.
Consequently, optimization of public transport network system is in the sight of
departure time interval in order to formulate the first line departure frequency of
BRT in the North Park Street. Thought based on the optimum whole society benefit
is proposed and optimal mathematical model of bus departure time interval is
constructed. Genetic algorithm is introduced to solve the model, and the 1st line
departure frequency of BRT in the North Park Street is calculated according to
traffic flow data on surveys.
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Table 1. Original Input Indicators.

Symbol Meaning Value
M Number of stops 19
Tmax The maximum departure time interval 10
tb The time bus start operating every day 5:30
v0 The initial passenger flow rate in each stop (persons/hour) 120
tq Time (s) to get on (or get off) bus of unit passenger flow volume 1
tg Delay time for bus to slowdown and accelerate in the stops 10
r1 Price for one ticket 2
r2 Bus depreciation expense of fixed cost 500
r3 Bus operation costs 150
FC Weight of the total time for the passengers waiting for a bus 20
FB Indicated that the weight of BRT operational benefit 1
NZ GA population 100
NF0 The total number of initial departed buses 200
ND The initial mobilization buses 6
b Penalty coefficient 100
c Penalty coefficient 100
α Crossover rate 0.8
β Mutation rate 0.2

Caculation results. BRT frequency of North Park Street calculated by using

genetic algorithm is shown in Table 2.

Table 2. Corresponding Departure Frequency of Optimized Solution.

TP FR TI Type
5:30-6:00 6 10.00 B- B- B- B- B- B
6:00-6:30 6 10.00 B- B- B- B- B- B
6:30-7:00 12 5.00 B- B- B- B- B- B-B-B-B-A-B-A-A
7:00-7:30 12 5.00 A- A- A- A- B- A-B-A-B-A-B-A-A
7:30-8:00 16 3.75 A-B-A-A-A-A-A-B-A-A-B-B-B-A-A-A
8:00-8:30 20 3.00 A-A-B-A-B-A-B-A-B-A-A-A-A-B-B-B-A- B-B-A
8:30-9:00 2 5.00 A-A-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
9:00-9:30 8 7.50 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
9:30-10:00 8 7.50 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
10:00-10:30 8 7.50 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
10:30-11:00 8 7.50 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
11:00-11:30 12 5.00 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
11:30-12:00 12 5.00 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
12:00-12:30 12 5.00 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
12:30-13:00 12 5.00 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
13:00-13:30 12 5.00 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
13:30-14:00 8 7.50 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
14:00-14:30 8 7.50 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
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14:30-15:00 8 7.50 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B

15:00-15:30 8 7.50 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
15:30-16:00 12 5.00 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
16:00-16:30 12 5.00 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
16:30-17:00 16 3.75 B-B-B-B-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A
17:00-17:30 16 3.75 A-A-A-B-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-B-A-A
17:30-18:00 18 3.33 A-A-A-A-B-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-B-A-A-B
18:00-18:30 18 3.33 A-A-B-A-A-A-A-B-A-A-A-B-A-A-B-B-B-B
18:30-19:00 18 3.33 A-B-A-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-A-B-B-B
19:00-19:30 12 5.00 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
19:30-20:00 8 7.50 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
20:00-20:30 8 7.50 B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B
20:30-21:00 6 10.00 B- B- B- B- B- B
21:00-21:30 6 10.00 B- B- B- B- B- B
Note: (1) Bus with the length of 18 m is type A, and 12 m is type B.
(2) TP-Time Period, FR-Frequency (Buses/Hour), TI-Time Interval (Minutes)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research is partially supported by the Scientific Research Foundation of
Shandong Jiaotong University, under granted number Z200907.
REFERENCES
Bai. Z. J. (2007). “A Study on BRT Network Planning and Optimal Frequency
Based on Intelligence Optimization Algorithms.” Dissertation for the
Doctoral Degree of Tianjin University.
Chien, S. and Qin, Z. Q. (2004). “Optimization of bus stop locations for improving
transit accessibility.” Transportation planning and Technology, 27(3) 211-
227.
Herbert, S.L., Scott, R., and Eric, B. (2003). “TCRP Report 90: Bus Rapid Transit ”
Transportation Research Board.
Last, A., and Leak. S. E. (1976). “ Transept: a bus model.” Traffic Engineering and
Control, 17(1): 14-17, 20.
Levinson, H., Zimmerman, S., and Clinger, J. (2003). “Bus rapid transit: Synthesis
of case studies.” Transportation Research Record, 1841: 1-11.
Saka, A.A. (2001). “Model for Determining Optimum Bus- Stop Spacing in Urban
Areas ” Journal of Transportation Engineering, 127(3):195-199.
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Railway Station Multi-objective Design Based on Management Perspective

Yu ZHANG1 and Hui-hui SUN2

1
School of Arts and Communication, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu,
China, Zip Code 610031; PH 13594190972; FAX (023) 67575207; email:
zjy_cq@163.com
2
School of Accounting,Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing,
China, Zip Code 400067; PH (023) 60997701; FAX (023) 67575207; email:
shh790823@126.com

ABSTRACT
In this paper, an analysis of development of the current railway station trend
to the multi-objective urban synthesis has been presented. The authors apply the
theory of design management in the multi-objective design of railway station, and
suggest the system of design management with four-level-target, including overall
integrated target, organizational structure design, engineering project management
and design practice management.

INTRODUCTION
Rail transport is a convenient and environmentally friendly means of public
transportation with a high transport capacity. At present, China's railway
transportation and railway station construction industries are facing an
unprecedented period of great development, especially the large passenger stations
which play an important role in the cities. Railway stations have always been viewed
as city "nodes", linking inter-city traffic and urban transport hubs. Today, the design
of many large railway stations, when compared to the traditional stations, shows a
new trend emerging in which the stations are changing into a multi-functional urban
"complex" (Teng et al., 2006). On one hand, the railway station changes from a
single place where the train arrives and departs into a transport hub, which links a
variety of modes of transportation, including the city's rail transit, bus, car, inter-city
and regional rapid transit, and even airport. Thus, it can satisfy a variety of
transportation needs. On the other hand, the construction of the railway stations is
often associated with the urban development plan. The construction of the railway
stations also changes the underground pedestrian walking areas into the
"underground business street" (such as New York Central Station, and Pennsylvania
Station). With the development of social economy, the changes of transportation
modes and the improvement of living standards, designers of railway passenger
stations should take into consideration not only the convenience of the traffic but the
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humanism of the design and the expression of the architectural culture as well.
Because of the multi-function feature, the coordination of the multi-objective
becomes the important factor in the design of the railway station “complex”. To
achieve this goal, a systematic design management system should be designed in
order to balance the multi-function and achieve the best overall design.
THE MULTI-OBJECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TREND OF RAILWAY
STATIONS
The design of space and passenger flow transitions from the waiting mode to
the passing mode
The passenger friendly design of the space inside and outside of the station,
as well as the arrival and departure access of the station, fully reflects the thought of
convenience and efficiency. Various designs of passengers flow, especially the clear
direction of travel and destination, are an important feature to be considered in
“passing mode” passengers flow organizational design system which is emphasized
in the station. At the same time, if various other modes of transportation are
introduced into the railway station with the approach of spatial construction, the
time passengers spend in the station and the distance passengers walk to avoid lines
can both be minimized. The visual information and guidance systems are important,
as they can make the orientation of railway stations clear and unequivocal, allowing
passengers in any area of railway station to have a clear sense of direction, thus
shortening the transfer time for passengers.
The layout of various modes of transportation transform from the dispersed-
type to the hub
Urban road traffic includes rail transportation, buses, taxis, public vehicles,
private cars etc. In connecting with the other various modes urban transportation, the
location and traffic organization design of all major cities’ railway stations regarded
the urban rail as the primary means of collecting and distributing information to
function as the key research in order to maximize the convenience of passengers’
transfers. In order to facilitate the flow line of passenger entry and exit, and save
land resources, the stations have changed from previous generally setting at the
station square served by buses, taxis into an urban transportation connection facility
by using both underground and street-level spaces. Railway station gradually
changes from single passengers arriving and departing into the city’s important
transportation connection hub.
Commercial Space planning transform from the fragmented mode to system
mode
A traditional railway station usually opens to the city with the front of
building, and is generally separated into two sides “Yin” and "Yang", resulting in a
split mechanism of railway station and urban development. In order to meet the
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layout of urban functions, transportation networks, urban landscape and other

requirements, the choice of station site ties in with the urban planning. Thus railway
stations are located where the city’s space gradually integrates into urban space.
Using a systematic approach of integrating the railway station area and surrounding
urban functions into a whole, messy and fragmented business organizations of
railway stations are gradually structured into the unified planning of the functional
city space. The previous business model, based on mainly fragmented hawker-style
stalls, is changing into a new business mode, which uses the station as the core of
collection and divergence, and a variety of commercial activities initiates around
that core. For transport nodes, it is important that the flow of people can be diverted
rapidly and efficiently, while allowing commercial business around the station to
succeed due to the high-density population activities inspired by the railway station.
The humanized facilities and services transform from superficial and single to
multi-level and all-round
Multi-level and all-round philosophy is "people-oriented" and embodies all
aspects of service and design. The important function of railway stations with large
spaces and channels is to provide a comfortable and convenient space for travelers
including wide halls, waiting areas, ticket halls, and VIP room spaces that are all
open and as transparent as possible. This creates beautiful views, spacious interiors,
and harmonious and comfortable waiting environments. Barrier-free facilities,
meanwhile, adopt the scientific and rational use of space as much as possible to
arrange flow lines that avoid running up and down. In addition, conveyors, elevators
and other automated facilities, as well as train platforms with large spans, high
spaces, and transparent and non-stop pillar canopies, ensure the smooth and easy
trips for passengers, including the disabled. The railway station provides a rich
variety of informational services, including television, telecommunications,
networks, public telephones, automatic query machine and other advanced facilities,
as well as a flexible open-style commercial space layout that supports food and
drinks making customer service even better.
Architectural features design transforms from the stylized rigid to the
pluralistic cultural representative
The cultural identity of architecture not only embodies the historical value
but also has the guiding role of fashion and expresses an in-depth understanding of
regional and cultural differences. China has a history of civilization for thousands of
years, and many outstanding architectural heritages are now becoming a source of
creativity in railway station designs. The cultural character of railway station
construction in this new era is gradually reflected in perfect combination of local
culture, functions of passenger transport and the characteristics of the times,
embodying a landmark feature corresponding to an important traffic node.
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INTRODUCTION OF DESIGN MANAGEMENT THOUGHT

At present, the railway station design is a system project involving a wide
range of collaboration and many key factors. Achieving multi-objective design
depends on the introduction of management theory and thought.
Overview of design management application
Design management theory studies how to integrate and coordinate the
necessary resources, objectives and activities at all levels as well as manage a range
of development strategies and design development activities. In the design activities,
use of planning, organization, leadership and control management principles are
intended to fulfill the design performance and to improve design efficiency.
Researchers have made a wide variety of interpretations of the design
management (Guo, 2006). In general, design management is the attempt to design
system efficiency of the various activities, and then to design systematic, organized
and institutionalized operations. Design management in the early 20th century had
become a competitive means of participating in the fierce market competition and
enhancing corporate image and value. By the 1970’s, design management was
increased from specific practical to a systematic theory and had gradually formed a
macro-design management system, such as business strategic management, as well
as a micro-design management operation system, such as the specific design
organization and management, design project management and design evaluation,
and design rules.
After the establishment of China's market economy system, enterprises and
theoretical circles have gradually increased their use of the theory and research in
design management. On the theoretical research level, most studies were founded on
the business perspective, focused on internal product design and management,
external business development strategy, brand strategy, etc., but most of these
studies focused on a single business subject and the study was at a lower level (e.g.
Li et al., 2007; Xiao et al., 2006; Tao, 2006). Meanwhile, for the current design
objects and environment, the design process itself has actually become a complex
and systematic project, requiring effective management to ensure the design
mechanism for the normal functioning and coordination. The studies of design
management show the lack of design for large-scale activities, in particular the
railway stations as a "complex", with multi-objective design requirements. The
following analysis of this paper will give full consideration about the current
development of railway stations as a basis for multi-objective factors. It then
analyzes multi-objective design management ideas in which the use of multi-
objective, and explores the design patterns establishment of a large railway station
design projects.
Principles of multi-objective design management
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The system to be designed is composed of many subsystems. These

subsystems include the various sub-goals necessary to achieve the overall design
goals, such as: the coordination with other transport systems, space design of
stations for streamline of passengers, and a station’s functional planning division
with the surrounding cities, including engineering technology, structural mechanics,
pipeline equipment, system installation, etc. These subsystems also include a
number of systems that need to be further refined to achieve our target. In short, an
overall integrated design as a complete system is an organic entity, with the various
subsystems inextricably linked within the system. Therefore, the design manager
needs to coordinate the various internal subsystems and sub-goals in order to design
projects with the best integration and maximum efficiency. The ultimate result is that
the final design can cater to a wide range of demands, and accomplishes the historic
mission of railway stations in a specific development background.
System management activities achieve the desired effect and maximum
purpose for the whole system, including three aspects: first, make reasonable
arrangements the system’s internal variety of resources (human, material, equipment,
funds, etc.) in order to effectively take advantage of this micro-level management;
second, create sub-systems to achieve the individual objective optimization; third,
coordinate the overall balance of the system within the sub-optimal balance so that
achieve the optimal state of the system. System engineering management takes an
object of study as a whole, requiring any one object of overall composition to be an
integrated component.
The composition of multi-objective design management of railway station
In order to integrate, coordinate, and balance the multi-objective nature of
design projects, the management principles of systems engineering management
should be adopted. Multi-objective design projects from the project approval to final
completion involve many aspects, and the completion of this goal requires reflection
on many factors, such as: judgments, organization and implementation to obtain
more accurate design concepts and a foothold. If this process relies on the railway
station chief designer’s temporary inspiration and subjective understanding, it is
difficult to achieve; instead, it must rely on involving urban planning, transportation
organizations, the project cost budget, mechanical engineering structures, systems
installation and even behavioral, psychology and other experts in the scientific and
rational collaboration design mechanism; it may take place with the support of
information management infrastructure and systematic operation. In order for multi-
objective integrated design activities to operate normally and maximize efficiency,
we must conduct system management of the project team and associated support
team. This not only refers to the management of design organizations, but also to the
coordination of the relationship between every project team. At the design
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management level, due to the design projects having different goals, an integrated
strategy for the achievement of the different design goals may lead to conflict and
alienation. However, with the different nature and characteristics of the design
purpose, management of design systems will also resolve conflicts and reconcile
alienation.
According to the nature and characteristics of design management at
different levels, management models also have corresponding differences. Therefore,
depending on the features of different levels, design management is divided into
different management types of features. The methods used, as well as the focus
stressed, are different, such as overall integrated objective setting which focuses on
the purpose; design of organizational structure which focuses on control and
coordination, project management which focuses on the project implementation
process; management of design practice which focuses on the effectiveness of the
specific design.
The specific design management can be divided into 4 hierarchies: the
overall integrated target management, structure of design organizational, project
management, and design management practices. The 4-level-target management
system is shown in Figure 1.
Design activities Design hierarchy

Construction of multi-
objective synthesis target target …… target

Management of
design organization

Project design,
Project Project Project
organization and ……
Team1 Team 2 Team N
collaboration

Concrete design practice

and form the results of
Design practice management
overall integrated design

Figure 1. Multi-objective Integrated Design Activities and Design Management

Hierarchy.
ISSUES OF RAILWAY PASSENGER STATION DESIGN MANAGEMENT
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Establishment of multi-objective design guiding principles of railway station

complex (Jian, 2007)
Functional requirements
The core of railway station functionality substance is “people-oriented,
stream-based.” “People-oriented” is passenger-oriented and intended to facilitate the
use by tourists. From the railway station as a whole to the design details, every effort
is made to provide passengers with a convenient, comfortable traveling environment,
as well as quick and convenient transfer conditions and human services. “Stream-
based” refers to railway stations making the flow passengers clear and smooth,
without disturbing each other, which is the main target.
Systemic requirements Systemic not only refers to the organic integration of the
station’s internal facilities, but also to the use of the system theory approach and the
scientific analysis of various relevant factors. Moreover, according to the principle
of “an integrated system is the best”, stations are used as the center to realize system
optimization and the organic combination of between railway and urban other modes
of transport. Ultimately, the goal is to achieve the establishment of a comprehensive
transfer of various modes of a transportation hub.
Advanced requirements
Advanced is forward thinking for the size of the railway station building, as
well as the functional layout and design of the railway station yard, in order to meet
the demand for transportation services in the future. The railway station building and
internal facilities ought to give full consideration to energy-saving, environmental
protection, sustainable development, and full use of advanced construction
techniques to ensure that the station building will stand the test of time.
Cultural Features requirements
The architectural form and space of the railway station should adapt to the
local geographical and climatic characteristics and be in harmony with the landscape
in order to reflect the specific regional characteristics. In addition, the railway
station house building should reflect the cultural characteristics with an integrated
architectural language from the perspective of human environment, such as
historical, cultural, social, etc., in order for the architecture to possess rich cultural
connotations.
Structure of management organization
Establish the design organization for overall coordination
The difference between multi-objective design of the organization and the
general project design is that multi-objective makes different design targets as sub-
design systems, with each sub-design system having different emphasis. These
emphases could include a design team for researching other urban transportation
modes, a design team for the layout of business organizations in railway station
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space tied with the whole city function layout or a design team for spatial
arrangement to improve the efficiency of the passengers flow. The research and
design of each team must ultimately be integrated into the comprehensive design,
unifying the railway station to form an organic whole. Taking into account the
relevance of each design organization, this paper constructed a light-based project
design matrix to facilitate the full integration of the different design targets of each
design team, as shown in Figure 2.

Design
Professionals in Professionals in Professionals in
coordination
various fields 1 various fields 2 various fields N

Design
team1

Design
team2

Design
team N

Figure 2. Matrix Patterns of the Overall Coordination of Design Organization.

Establishment decision-making system of multi-objective evaluation.
The existence of multi-objective is bound to lead to inevitable contradictions
and differences. Finding a balance point in the various contradictions and
differences, or choosing stress under the overall-design plan is an important issue
which multi-objective design organizations need to solve. Establishment of a
scientific and reasonable multi-objective decision-making evaluation system can
help to resolve goal conflicts. System analysis methods, such as the analytic
hierarchy process (AHP), and fuzzy evaluation method, establish a target-assisted
evaluation system. The index analysis, in accordance with the general design
requirements of design projects, distinguishes between primary and secondary
priorities, and then makes the right choice. This issue will be studied in another
paper, not reported in this paper.
Project management of design engineering
In respect to each separate design team, the project management of design
engineering should include three aspects as follows:
Preparation and development of design project
Include an in-depth investigation for the station and circumjacent urban
planning, transport layout, station passenger flow characteristics, and so on. In
addition, master the current status of technological development, as well as the
possibility of realization of design ideas. Based on the data and information gathered,
gradually form a more specific direction of design. Under the general direction
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1130
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identified, gradually raise a number of design solutions to choose from and develop
a preliminary concrete design concept.
Communication and coordination with the other design team with
different goals
After the preliminary designs of specific programs are formed, the timely
communication with the other design teams is essential. The earlier proposed matrix
of the internal communication and coordination mechanisms for resolving conflict
will gradually integrate the preliminary designs into a unified, integrated design of a
railway station.
Management of the design implementation stage
After the overall plan is formed, each design team is responsible for the
engineering and construction related to their design fields. In the construction
process, collaborate with structure, equipment and circuit systems engineers to solve
problems that may arise, fully implement the design ideas into practice, and
strengthen the controllability management of the process to meet the intended design
and purpose.
Management for design practice
According to the current development trend of railway stations, the design
should specifically be focused on solving the design practices as follows.
Focus on the intensive use of space.
Because of the requirements of urban-in-depth as much as possible for
railway stations, designs of railway station should follow the intensification
principles of land used. Distribution and transfer of multi-modal transport passenger
flow transforms from two-dimensional layout into a spatial layout. The formation of
multi-layered architectural structures and vertical commercial building both avoids
the fragmentation of the city and provides for passengers’ maximum convenience. It
also reduces the impact periphery of railway station surroundings.
Upgrade "seamless" concept of zero-transfer.
For a transport node, the need for the flow of people to be quickly and
efficiently diverted tops the list. A good railway station should be able to divert a
large number of flows in a short amount of time and, as much as possible, reduce the
area population density. Spatial traffic transfer system stations should be designed to
minimize the transfer space-time of the crowd flow so as to improve the "passing"
efficiency of the railway station. Allowing passengers to go straight to the waiting
room and even the platform should also be given adequate attention.
Simplify the form of railway station building.
Modern railway stations are very complex. In the face of this complexity, we
should coordinate with a strong technical support on a simple, clear and
understandable program to solve them. The design trend of simplified architectural
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1131
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forms can be seen from the Beijing West Railway Station and the Beijing South
Railway Station.
CONCLUSION
The new upsurge in construction of railway stations is on its way. In order
for railway station buildings to serve as complex systems, engineered with multi-
disciplinary and multi-function design, the philosophy of system design
management must be introduced at the design stage. In this paper, an analysis of the
application of railway station design management with four-level-target has been
presented in order to gradually establish the system of railway station design and
construction management along with the progressive development of theory system
of design management. The system will play an important role in construction of
large-scale railway station projects with versatile and complex factors considered,
improving and meeting design requirements of railway station as city multi-
objective.
REFERENCES
Guo, Y. L. (2007). Design management, Second Edition. Shanghai: Shanghai
Jiaotong University Press.
Jian, Z. (2007). China's railway passenger station planning and construction.
Railway Economic Research (Bimonthly), (4).
Jian, Z. (2007). The new era general principles to guide the construction of the
railway terminal and practice Railway Society, (6).
Li, W. Z., and Fukuda. (2007). “On the design and management within the
enterprise”. Decoration, (1).
Tao, Z. (2006). “Design and design management”. Journal of Nanjing Arts Institute,
(4).
Teng, W., and Ji, W. L. (2006). “Railway station complex and urban catalyst - to
Shanghai South Railway station as an example”. Urban Planning Journal,
(4).
Xiao, F. Z., Pin, Z., and Meng, S. (2006) “Design management and product
innovation strategy”. Design, (6).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1132
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Applying Safety Audit Concept in the Pre-opening and Trial

Operation Stage of a Freeway Project

Xiao-ming ZHONG1, Jia JIA1, Jian ZHANG1, Yuan-yuan WAMG2

1
Chelbi Engineering Consultants, Inc., No. 20, Anyuan Road, 8 Floor - Xingyuan
Talent Tower, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China; PH 86-10-64997112;
FAX 86-1084896981; email: zhong_xiaoming@126.com
2
State Intellectual Property Office patent examination Collaborating Center,
Zhongguancun South Street, Zijin Digital Building 4# 517 Room, Beijing, China; PH
86-10-62413018; email:wangyuanyuan@sipo.gov.cn

ABSTRACT
Road safety audit concept has been applied successfully in many developed
countries in the past twenty years. But this concept has been applied to few projects
in the pre-opening and trial operation stage in China. This paper will describe how to
use road safety audit concept in pre-opening and trial operation stage for Qinglian
Freeway. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the successful experience of the
safety audit concept and to discuss the problems in real world application. In addition,
treatments for typical safety issues recommended for this project can be applied to
similar highway upgraded projects.

INTRODUCTION
Road safety audit has been proved as a useful tool to assess the potential
dangerous area and to eliminate safety problems (Bulpitt, 1998; Alfonso, 2001). The
road safety audit process has become widely known over the last two decades since it
was formally introduced, first in Great Britain and shortly afterwards in Australian
and New Zealand. Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China issued
the Guidelines for Safety Audit of Highway (JTG/TB05-2004) in 2004, and indicated
that Road Safety Audit is officially adopted and will be applied to highway projects.
After running a Highway Safety Audit Pilot Program for more than 5 years, safety
audit has been applied to more than twenty newly constructed freeways (Li, 2007).
Most of the pilot project applied safety auditing in the design stage. A few
projects applied auditing in the pre-opening and trial operation stage. This paper will
describe how road safety audit concept is used for Qinglian Freeway in pre-opening
and trial operation stage.
The objective of this paper is to illustrate the successful experience of safety
audit and to discuss problems of audit technique and procedure when applying to a
real world project. In addition, typical safety issues and recommended treatments for
a highway upgrade project can be useful for highway engineers.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1133
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Authors of this paper are the member of the safety audit team. This paper will
first explain why safety audit is applied to Qinglian freeway, and then summarize the
process of safety audit and related technical problems. Finally presents lessons
learned, and followed by conclusions.
BACKGROUND AND CHARACTERISTICS OF QINGLIAN FREEWAY
Qinglian Freeway project is one of the representative highway upgrade
projects in mountainous area in China. Total length of the project is 215.3km, and the
first section is 187.7km at a cost of 540 million Yuan (RMB). The old Qinglian
highway was a two-lane two way national highway without access control. Since this
highway is located in a mountainous area, many sharp curves and continuous
downgrades posted serious safety hazard. To improve safety and operation speed, old
Qinglian highway is upgraded to Qinglian Freeway. The new Qinlian freeway is a
4-lane two-way arterial linking the north and the south of Guangdong Province (see
Figure 1). This freeway is designed to carry projected AADT of 1,4000 pcu with
60% truck in the year of 2011.
Because the upgrade plan is to keep most of the old Qinglian highway
alignment and because of its mountain location where adverse weather condition is
common, the owner (Qinglin Highway Develapment Co., Ltd.) pays special attention
to safety. Besides emphasis safety during design and construction stages, safety audit
concept is introduced in pre-opening and trial operation stage to assure the highest
safety standard during service period. The safety audit was carried out from March to
Augest of 2009, when Qinglian Freeway was in pre-opening and trial operation stage.
To the authors’ knowledge, this project is the first mountainous highway upgrade
project in China that incorporates the road safety audit concept in the pre-opening
and trial operation stage.
Safety audit had been applied to design stage or in service stage on most of
the pilot projects in the last 5 years and the auditing had been applied to few projects
in pre-opening and trial operation stage in China. There is little safety audit
experience for Qinglian Freeway to learn from. The auditors must face many
problems with almost no helps. The first question the team faced is how to
commence on the safety audit and what procedure to be followed? The following
section will describe the audit process.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1134
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Figure 1. Location of Qinglian Freeway.

SAFETY AUDIT PROCESS
Safety audit is a formal process that requires to follow a step by step
procedure (Burrough, 1991; Nilsson, 1993; Owers, 2001). But different object of
safety audit means different procedures to follow (Lipinski, 2003; Pieples, 1999).
The main purpose of safety audit in pre-opening and trial operation stage is to
identify and address any design or construction safety issue and to understand how
drivers’ behaviors interact with the road features, and to take feasible measures to
relieve or remedy these issues. The purpose and process of pre-opening auditing are
very different from those of design stage or in-service stage because it is very
difficult to change construction problems or geometric design problems, and because
rare end accidents in trial operation stage do not reflect all potential road defects. To
avoid and lessen conflicts between concern parties, many conditions, such as, the
audit team will develop the final design drawings and the owner agrees to set up
special budget and accept delay opening due to remedial construction, etc., are
agreed upon prior to auditing. The safety audit process applied to this project is
summarized as follows.
Step 1: Form a safety audit team
There are four auditors in the Qinglian Freeway safety audit team. The safety
auditors are persons with experience and knowledge in highway safety design, traffic
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operations, accident investigation, and accident prevention. Most of all, the auditors
understand drivers behavior or have driving experience, this qualification is different
from the other safety audit projects.
Step 2: Conduct a pre-audit meeting to review project information
Project owner presided over a pre-audit meeting that included all concern
parties (such as audit team, design team, construction contractor, operation and
maintenance contractor) to discuss safety concerns and to estimate the extent of
safety may be affected or improved. The project owner made sure that the audit team
understands the objective and scope of the Qinglian Freeway safety audit. At the end
of the meeting, each party had assigned clear roles and responsibilities. Experience
proves this is an important step, because it affects the relationship of concern parties
in the following steps.
Step 3: Data collection and field observations under various conditions
This is the most important and complex step for safe audit in pre-opening and
trial operation stage. Extensive design document, construction data, driver’s
behaviors and accident data are available in pre-opening and trial operation stage that
are not available for safety audit in other stages.
Data collection including: 1). Detail design documents which includes
geometrical design and traffic engineering design, such as signs, delineators,
pavement markings, and dynamic traffic massage board etc., special features, such as,
high bridges, tunnels, and interchanges, and roadside features; 2)Potential hazard
section and detrimental circumstance (condition drivers consider as a safety problem,
such as uneasy when driving on a high bridge or in a tunnel, adverse climate
condition, or turning to adjacent road etc.); 3) Accident happened during pre-opening
and trial operation stage (including time, detail description, location, type, cause, and
severity); 4) Related project design standards, guidelines and manuals; 5) Minutes of
safety meetings and agreements with stakeholders or the government.
Field investigation is an important but difficult task. Field works include
collecting road condition data under adverse circumstances, traffic composition, and
operation speed，observe of unsafe driver behaviors, identify potential hazard
locations and propose solution, etc. The next section of the paper will describe these
complicated tasks in more details.
Step 4: Conduct data analysis and find solution
After reviewing design drawings and field investigation, the audit team
conducted data analysis and develop remedy actions. The success of safety audit
depends on the knowledge, experience and expertise of auditors. Both qualitative
methods (check list, design documents accord with freeway standard or not, etc) and
quantitative methods (operation speed, accident analysis, cost-reduction, etc.) were
employed in this project. The audit team identified numerous safety issues and
evaluated their degree of risk.
Step 5:Prepare a draft statement of findings and resolve conflicts
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1136
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Then the audit team prepared a draft statement of findings. At this stage,
many conflicts arise and may be the reason for the failure of the previous projects.
But the conflict was resolved successfully in Qinglian Freeway safety audit, because
the earlier agreement among the parties on additional funding and time for remedial
improvement construction. With this agreement, consensus was reached smoothly
with design team, and in money and time issues.
Step 6: Present the final safety audit report and design drawings to the Owner
In this step the team and the owner discussed the findings and recommended
modifications for high risk locations. After reaching consensus on findings and
remedial improvement cost,the audit team prepared the final report and detail design
drawings. This step is different from other safety audit projects because redemial
improvement drawings are designed not by the design team but by the audit team.
Step 7: Conduct a completion audit meeting to review project information
The owner presided over a completion audit meeting. Concern parties and
experts were invited to discuss the construction scheme for the recommended
remediation (Mason, 1997; Wilson, 1999). When it is done, the Owner and the
contractor incorporated the agreement into the project documents. At this point, the
audit team has completed the process of safety audit. This step and the next step are
the same as other safety audit processes.
Step 8: Evaluating the effect and conduct a finished audit meeting
After the recommendations are implemented, the owner will trace the effect
of the safety audit and provide feed back to the safety audit team during the finishing
audit meeting. The experience and knowledge gained from this project may be useful
for future projects and lead to managing and designing a safer highway.
EXPERIENCE OF USEING SAFETY AUDIT CONCEPT IN PROCESS
The process mentioned above covered the Qinglian safety audit. Some useful
experiences and lessons have been learned during the process. Two specific topics,
i.e., field study approach and the recommended treatment to handle the safety
problem for upgrade highway projects are worth mention.
Field study approach
Field study is a complex and difficult process. During this operation, the team
compares design drawings and determines what segments need to be surveyed and
what data need to be collected. Upon completion of the field survey, the auditor
summarizes the findings.
With time limitation, the auditors concentrate their effort in the potential
safety hazard segments. The investigated segments in Qinglian Freeway are as
follows:
(1) Safety hazard segments associate with minimum design standards (such
as sharp curve, long downgrade, and design and construction deficiency segments)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1137
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(2) Driver’s unadapted reaction segments (area designer fail to consider

human factor, drivers’ psychological and physiological reaction, such as driver feels
uneasy when driving on a high bridge or a group of consecutive tunnels)
(3) Special segments (such as roadside hazard, area with frequent thick fog,
and slippery pavement)
(4) High operation speeding ahead of sharp curves, steep downgrades, turnels
or toll stations.
It took auditors over a month to collect day time and night time field data
under both good and bad weather conditions. The safety audit team drove the
freeway for more than 20 times in different types of vehicles (cars, buses and heavy
trucks). During each trip speed and location was recorded by GPS (see Figure 2) and
visual and voice comments from auditors was recorded by videotape. Spot speeds
were collected at 52 locations and over 7800 speed data were recorded.

Speed point

Milepost

Figure 2. Speed and Location Data with GPS Superimposed on

GoogleEarth.
Because there is no milepost on the new freeway, it is very difficult to review
design plans at the field. Using GPS and GoogleEarth Software, the auditors were
able to locate potential dangerous section matching the design drawings milepost
(see Figure 3).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1138
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Potential dangerous location

Potential dangerous location

Milepost

Figure3. Potential Dangerous Location Corresponding to Design Drawings

Recommended solution to the safety problem and the benefit.
With their knowledge, experience, and analytical tools, the safety audit team is
able to identify potential danger locations.
During this process, the auditors identified several typical safety issues on
highway upgrade projects (such as lack of warning signs, insufficient sight distance,
intense glare problem, speed control on long downgrade, driver feels unease on high
bridge, etc.).
The recommended remedies and improvement to solve the identified safety
problems are valuable to highway upgrade projects. Some common treatments are
shown in Table 1 to Table 3. These treatments include:
Use larger signs, relocate or add new signs, such as keep safe distance sign,
larger warning sign for sharp curve and steep downgrade;
Add delineators or chevron signs on sharp curves and entrances to tunnels or a
group of tunnels; install reflective pavement marking for insufficient sight distance;
install pavement marking to slow down traffic; install skid resistance pavements on
dangerous downgrade or curve; install red-blue flashing beacons at toll stations;
Install fog lamp or solar capacitor pavement marker at foggy area;
Install intelligent variable message board to advise adverse weather condition
and speeding;
Adjust speed management plan;
Through timely communication, the owner can approved the safety audit
constructive suggestion and reached consensus with little time lost. So far most
improvements have been implemented and the follow up monitoring showed safety
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1139
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condition of the freeway is good. Questionnaire results collected from Qinglian

Freeway in late 2009 indicated that more than 98 percent of drivers satisfied with
safety improvements. It implies that the safety audit is successful and beneficial.
Table 1. Recommended Sign Improvement for QingLian Freeway.
Sign Size
item unit amount milepost location Function
(cm)
Curve Warning for
warning 80×60 piece 85 sharp curve
signs
Large sign,
waring sign warning for
DuBu section
for steep K2175+900 steep
DuBu section
downgrade 300×210 piece 9 K2174+280 downgrade and
ShiCangLing
and sharp JK2152+000 sharp curve
section
curve section

warning long
Climbing DuBu long
420×315 piece 1 JK2179+700 upgrade section
lane sign climbing section

Truck must
warning Truck
travel on JK2181+050 DuBu long
420×315 piece 2 to stay on the
the right JK2183+700 climbing section
right lane
lane sign
Warning Keep
JK2152+000 GuanPiLing
Keeping safe distance
JK2155+400 long downgrade
distance 350×350 piece 8 between
K2172+300 YangShan
new sign vehicles
JK2196+170 JiaoChong

JK2176+550～ DuBu sharp Warning

Chevron
JK2176+850 curve insufficient
(power by 80×60 piece 40
JK2207+800～ DuBu sharp sight distance
solar panel)
JK2207+300 curve and sharp curve
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1140
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Table 2. Recommended Pavement Markings for QingLian Freeway.

items unit amount milepost location function

Rumble lane
K2077+800
edge line Avoid run- off
km 187.7 K2265+500 Along the freeway
pavement road
marking
K2160+900~
K2161+615 GuanPiLing 4#
improve friction
Colored skid K2201+500~ continuous viaduct
of pavement;
resistance m/site 905/4 K2201+765 shiTan 2# tunnel
speed control
pavement K2203+500~ entrance
warning
K2203+855 LeiGongChe bridge

JYK2223+300~
JYK2223+900
LiuJiaDong tunnel
K2177+300~
entrance
Visual error K2176+500 speed control
DuBu Intersection
pavement m/site 15050/22 JK2176+300~ or warning
DuBu shunting ponit
marking JK2176+800 deceleration
DuBu long -steep
JK2180+600~
upgrade
JK2180+900

GuanPiLing long
downgrade section
JK2152+000
GuanPiLing long
chevron JK2155+400 Warning keep
m/site 10350/6 downgrade section
marking K2172+300 safety distance
YangShan section
JK2196+170
JiaoChong section

Shitan 2# Runaway
Truck Escape K2204+150 Truck Ramp Inform Escape
site 2
Ramp K2180+100 Dubu 1# Runaway ramp location
Truck Ramp
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1141
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Table 3. Other Safety Improvements for QingLian Freeway.

Item unit amount milepost location function

Interchange exit HuaJi intersection exit ramp Alert

K2191+000
ramp warning set 366 LongJing intersection exit interchange
K2251+210
reflective pole ramp exit ramp
Avoid
Tunnel entrance HengShanZai tunnel crashing on
set 9
safety barrel BaiXuGong 1-5# tunnel tunnel
entrance
Solar yellow Alert
JK2139+700 LiBu intersection exit ramp
flashing set 8 interchange
JK2191+030 HuaJi intersection exit ramp
beacons ramp exit
GuanPiLing 0# Runaway
Alert truck
Solar red-blue K2159+900 Truck Ramp GuanPiLing 1#
escape
flashing set 6 K2162+152 Runaway Truck Ramp
ramp
beacons JK2173+550 Dubu 2# Runaway Truck
entrance
Ramp

CONCLUSION
Safety audit is a useful tool to identify and eliminate potential unsafe sections.
Qinglian Freeway is a representative highway upgrade project that implements the
safety audit concept in the pre-opening and trial operation stage. This paper
summarized the experience and lessons learned from this pilot project. It is
concluded that:
1. The safety audit in pre-opening and trial operation stage is valuable for
highway projects, especially for highway upgrade projects which inherited many
dangerous sections. But the technique of safety audit is not mature; this paper
discussed the process in detail. This process is not only different from the process
undertook by other countries, such as US and Australian, but also different from the
process applied to design and in-service stage.
2. The composition of safety audit team is crucial to the success of the
process (Proctor, 1993; Wilson, 1999; Jordan, 1999; Haiar, 1999). In pre-opening
and trial operation stage, auditors’ driving experience or knowledge are the key
factor to audit success. In addition, it is hard to manage the conflict among the
concern parties, so each party should have a clear understanding of their roles and
responsibilities and is willing to resolve conflicts.
3. Time available for safety audit in pre-opening and trial operation stage is
limited, so the safety audit team should use new technology, such as GPS, to save
time and communicate with owner and reach agreement in a timely fashion.
Otherwise, the process will cause unnecessary delay in opening date.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1142
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4. Some effective treatments have been developed for typical safety problem
of highway upgrade projects in mountainous area. The owner shall set aside
additional time and money to carry out these safety improvements.
5. With no previous safety audit done on this type of project, a certain amount
of time and effort may have been lost in the process. Continue monitoring of this
project, will provide data to document the benifits of safety audit in pre-opening and
trial operation stage.
REFERENCES
Alfonso, M. (2001). “Development of a potential for safety improvement index
austroads.” Road Safety Audit 2nd Edition. Sydney, New South Wales,
Australia.
Bulpitt, M. (1998). “Safety audit – an overview.” Austroads International Road
Safety Audit Forum, Melbourne, Australia, PP11-12.
Burrough, P. (1991). “Procedure for the road safety audit of trunk road schemes”
Department of Transport ,London.
Haiar, K. A., and Wilson, E. (1999). “adapting safety audits for small cities.” paper
presented at the 78th Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board,
Washington, D.C.
Jordan, P. W. (1999). “Vital steps in the implementation of road safety audit: getting
it started in your area.” Institute of Transportation Engineers Annual
Meeting Papers [CD-ROM], Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.
Li, K. B., Li, S. Y., and Qian, H. B. (2007). “Study of the strategy of improving road
traffic safety.” Transportation Science & Technology，No. 2.
Lipinski, M. E., and Wilson, E.M. (2003). “Road safety audits and road safety audit
reviews.” FHWA National Highway Institute (NHI), Publication No.
FHWA-NHI-03-024, 2003.
Mason, J. M. (1997). “Exploratory study on potential uses of highway tort claims
information for safety and design-related purposes.” ITE Annual Meeting,
Boston,August3-6.
Ministry of Public Security P. R. (2009). China Crash data annual report 1990-2008.
Nilsson, G. (1993). “Speed research and current issues in sweden.” The Speed Review:
Speed Workshop Papers, Federal Office of Road Safety, Department of
Transportation and Communications, Canberra, Australia.
Owers, R. S., and Wilson, E. M. (2001). “Safety analysis without the legal paralysis.”
The Road Safety Audit Program, University of Wyoming, Laramie.
Pieples, T. R. (1999). “Penn DOT’s road test of the road safety audit process.”
ITEJournal, January, pp 20-24
Proctor, S., and Belcher, M. (1993). “The use of road safety audits in great britain.”
Traffic Engineering and Control, pp. 61-65.
Wilson, E. M., and Lipinski, M. (1999), “Application of road safety audits to urban
streets”, Urban Street Symposium, Dallas Texas.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1143
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Forecasting Freight Volume Based on an Entropy Combination Method

Xiao-feng LIU1, Daniel (Jian) SUN1, Rong-yi DU1, and Zhong-ren PENG1,2

1
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, P.O. Box: 201804,
Shanghai, China; PH +86-15201962480; FAX (86)21-69583695; email:
microbreeze@126.com
2
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Florida, Gainesville, P.O.
Box: 115701, Florida, USA; PH (352)392-0997 Ext. 429, FAX (352)392-3308;
email: zpeng@dcp.ufl.edu

ABSTRACT
Freight volume forecasting is essential for transportation network planning,
construction and management. However, it is generally difficult to forecast the
freight volume accurately by using any single method. Combination method can
effectively improve forecasting accuracy, and consequently is widely utilized. Based
on the entropy theory, a parallel grey neural network combination model is
constructed to forecast freight volume. The effectiveness and feasibility of the
entropy combination method is demonstrated by a numerical example provided.

INTRODUCTION
Accurate and scientific freight volume forecasting is an important element of
transportation planning, and is the basis for transportation development, planning,
and operational management. Freight volume forecasting, due to its complexity, is
beyond accurate analytical formulation. The traditional freight volume forecasting
methods mainly include qualitative forecasting, quantitative forecasting, and
integrated forecasting methods (Liu, 2004). Quantitative forecasting methods mainly
include time series analysis method, regression analysis method and nonlinear
system theory model. Time series analysis method takes the development of freight
volume as a sequential growth process without considering the influence of relevant
factors. Regression analysis method takes into account relevant factors’ impacts on
the development of freight volume, and the causal relationship between the
dependent and independent variables. Some well-developed non-linear forecasting
models include wavelet analysis method, neural networks method and so on, which
have a pretty good adaptability for the system with nonlinearity properties, but need
to conduct operations with software packages. Each forecasting method has its
one-sidedness and disadvantages, and the accuracy of forecasting is found to be
unsatisfactory with any single method. That is why combination methods are
developed to enhance the performance of forecasting models.
Grey theory uses the known information to express the development of the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1144
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whole system, so that the freight volume affected by many factors could be
considered as a grey time-related variable in a certain range. On the other hand,
artificial neural network can map non-linear problems and approximate functions at
an arbitrary precision under certain conditions, which also has relatively high
forecasting accuracy. Based on the entropy theory, the weight coefficients of
combination method could be determined. Then the parallel grey neural network
model (Liu et al., 2005) is applied to forecast freight volume.
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE COMBINATION MODEL
Grey model. The main feature of grey theory is to reconstruct the known data
sequence to a dynamic white module. The GM(1,1) model can be used to forecast the
time sequence problems. The specific formula is dx dt  ax   , where, a and μ are the

grey parameters need to be identified. The disperse form of the formula are provided
as follows (Deng, 1990):

^ (1 )   (1)
x ( k )  ( x ( 0 ) (1 )  ) e  a ( k  1) 
a a

[ a ,  ]T  ( B T B )
1 T
B yn (2)



1
(x
(1)
(2)  x
(1)
(1))
 (3)
 2 1 

 1 (1) (1) 
  (x (3)  x ( 2 )) 
B   2 1
 
 ... ... 
 1
(x
(1)
(n)  x
(1)
( n  1)) 
 2 1
 

y n  [ x (0) ( 2), x (0) (3),......, x (0) ( n)]T (4)

According to the above formulas, the GM(1,1) model is determined

subsequently as follows:
 ^ (0) ^ (1)

 x (1)  x (5)
 (0) , k  2,3,..., n
^   a (k  1) 
 x ( k )  ( x ( 0) (1)  ) a
(1  e )e 
a a

RBF neural network. Radial basis function (RBF) neural network belongs to
a three-layer feed-forward network, including an input layer, a hidden layer and an
output layer, which can approximate any continuous nonlinear function theoretically,
with a high degree of non-linear mapping capability. Compared to the commonly
used BP algorithm, the RBF neural network has the following advantages: BP
networks are of slow calculation capacity and easily caught in the convergence of
local value, while the RBF network are better than BP network in terms of
approximation, classification, learning, and speed (Niu et al., 2000).
Determination of the combination weight coefficients. In information
theory, entropy is a measurement of uncertainty. Great of the entropy value indicates
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small amount of information it contains, and vice verse. The combination forecasting
model’s weight coefficients are based on entropy that takes the following steps (Chen
et al., 2003):
First, normalize the relative errors of different forecasting methods using the
following two equations:
eit (6)
Rit  N
, t  1,2,..., N
e
i 1
it

R
t 1
it  1, i  1,2,..., m (7)

Where, eit is the relative error of the ith forecasting method at period t (taking the

absolute value), m stands for the number of prediction methods, and n stands for the
number of prediction periods.
Second, calculate the entropy value of the relative error of the ith forecasting
method:
N
hi  k  Rit ln( Rit ), i  1,2,..., m (8)
t 1

1
Where, k   0 , 0  hi  1 .
ln( N )
Third, calculate the deviation coefficient of the relative error of the ith
forecasting method. Based on the principle that entropy value is contrary to the
deviation coefficient, the deviation coefficient is defined as follows:
d i  1  hi , i  1,2,..., m (9)

Finally, calculate the weight coefficients of different forecasting methods

using the following equation:
 
 
1  di 
li  1  m 
m 1 
 di  
 i 1  (10)
m
Subject to: l  1
i 1
i

Parallel grey neural network combination model. Assuming the total

number of forecasting was k, yˆ1t , yˆ 2t were the forecasting values of GM(1,1) and

RBF model, l1 ,l2 were the weight coefficients of them. ŷt was the forecasting

value of combination model.

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yˆ t  l1  yˆ1t  l2  yˆ 2t , t  1,2,..., k (11)

CASE STUDY
The original data include highway freight volume, GDP, import and export
trade, and retail sales of social consumption in Jiangxi province from the year 1997
to 2007, as shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Relative Data of Forecasting.

GDP (billion Import & export trade Retail sales of social Freight volume
Year
Yuan) (billion US dollar) consumption(billion Yuan) (million tons)

1997 171.5 1.333 55.9 178.87

1998 185.2 1.247 60.5 182.11
1999 196.3 1.314 65.0 186.57
2000 200.3 1.624 70.5 192.76
2001 217.6 1.531 76.3 195.85
2002 245.0 1.695 83.3 203.01
2003 283.0 2.528 92.3 210.47
2004 349.6 3.532 107.4 232.23
2005 405.7 4.059 123.6 248.14
2006 467.0 6.194 142.8 268.94
2007 546.9 9.479 168.3 300.42
Note: data source (1997-2007), “Jiangxi Province Statistical Bulletin”
As shown in Table 1, the average growth rates of GDP, import and export
trade, retail sales of social consumption from the year 1997 to 2007 are 12.3%,
21.67%, and 11.66%, respectively. According to the economic development planning
and experts’ recommendation of this province, the average growth rates of the above
indices from the year 2008 to 2010 will attain 11%, 18%, and 10%. Meanwhile, the
correlation coefficients between freight volume and GDP, import and export trade,
retail sales of social consumption are 0.9973, 0.9743 and 0.9989 respectively.
Forecasting could be conducted by using the data set as follows: First, by using the
GDP, import and export trade, retail sales of social consumption from the year 1997
to 2005 as the input samples, the corresponding data from the year 2006 to 2007 as
the test samples, RBF neural network is established and trained. Next, the relative
parameters of the neural network are determined with rules as: 1) the accuracy goal
equals to 1e-8; 2) the expansion constant equals to 1.2; and 3) the neuron number
equals to 12. Based on the trained RBF neural work model, inputting the indices data
mentioned from the year 1997 to 2010, the corresponding freight volumes were
forecasted as shown in Table 2. As for the GM(1,1) model, the freight volumes from
1997 to 2010 can also be forecasted according to the equations (1) to (5), and the
results were also presented in Table 2.
Based on the forecasting results of RBF model and GM(1,1) model, the
entropy values and the weight coefficients can be calculated according to the
equations from (6) to (11). The entropy value of GM(1,1) model and RBF neural
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1147
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network model are 0.8830 and 0.8179, with the corresponding weight coefficients as
0.6088 and 0.3912, respectively. To this end, the combination model can be
constructed, and the associated forecasting errors of different models were tabulated
in Table 3.
Table 2. Forecasting Values of Different Models (million tons).
Freight GM(1,1) RBF Combination Error of
Year
volume model model model combination model
1997 178.87 178.87 179.89 179.27 0.22%
1998 182.11 168.46 184.06 174.56 -4.14%
1999 186.57 178.50 187.49 182.02 -2.44%
2000 192.76 189.15 189.02 189.10 -1.90%
2001 195.85 200.43 194.23 198.00 1.10%
2002 203.01 212.39 202.26 208.43 2.67%
2003 210.47 225.05 213.22 220.42 4.73%
2004 232.23 238.48 232.03 235.96 1.60%
2005 248.14 252.70 247.81 250.79 1.07%
2006 268.94 267.77 264.86 266.63 -0.86%
2007 300.42 283.74 286.53 284.83 -5.19%
2008 - 300.40 302.28 301.14 -
2009 - 318.30 319.34 318.71 -
2010 - 337.30 337.77 337.48 -

Table 3. Comparison of Forecasting Error.

Minimum relative Maximum relative Mean absolute
Models
error error percentage error
GM model 0.00% 7.50% 3.46%
RBF model 0.09% 4.62% 1.18%
Combination model 0.22% 5.19% 2.36%

As shown in Table 2 and Table 3, the freight volumes from the year 2008 to
2010 are 301.14 million tons, 318.71 million tons and 337.48 million tons
respectively based on combination method. The minimum relative error, maximum
relative error and mean absolute percentage error of combination model are 0.22%,
5.19%, and 2.36%.
CONCLUSIONS
According to the calculation above, RBF model has a better forecasting
accuracy and entropy combination method can calculate the weight coefficients
conveniently. Moreover, the parallel grey neural network model can integrate
information of different methods and contribute to a more comprehensive forecasting.
Furthermore, the forecasting data goes beyond the observed data points of the input
data in the ANN model, the forecasting effect needs to be verified further.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This study is financially supported by the National High Technology
Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2009AA11Z220).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1148
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REFERENCES
Chen, H. (2003). “Entropy method and application to determine weights of
combination forecasting.” Journal of Anhui University, 27(4):1-6 (in
Chinese).
Deng, J. (1990). “Multidimensional grey planning.” Huazhong University of Science
and Technology Press, 30-35 (in Chinese).
Liu, J., and Guan, W. (2004). “A summary of traffic flow forecasting methods.”
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,
21(3):82-85.
Liu, X., and Jiang, H. (2005). “Study on port throughput forecasting method based
on parallel grey neural network model.” Port & Waterway Engineering,
10:5-10 (in Chinese).
Niu, X., Chen, Z., and Xie, H. (2000). “Combined gray neural network model and its
application in the seasonal power load forecasting”. Journal of Huabei
Power University, 27(4):1-6 (in Chinese).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1149
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A Signal Control Strategy for Right Turning Vehicles Based on the

Conglomeration

Quan YU1, Jin-guang LIU1, Jian RONG1, and Xiao-ming LIU1

1
Key Lab of transportation Engineering Beijing University of Technology, Beijing,
100124, China. Email: yuquan@bjut.edu.cn and ljg2006@emails.bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Based on the mixed traffic phenomenon in Chinese cities, the pedestrians
and the bicycles are taken as a whole. Based on the two-stage characteristic of the
releasing process, a new signal control strategy for the right turning vehicles is
presented in the paper. In order to calculate the conflicting time between the
conglomeration and the vehicles, the notion of the sum velocity of the
conglomeration is proposed. Finally, the strategy and the time of signal control are
optimized using the simulation method. The results showed that the conflict between
the conglomeration and the vehicles decreased under the new strategy, as well as the
crash between the conglomeration and the vehicles.

INTRODUCTION
Mixed traffic phenomena are one of the most remarkable characteristics in
Chinese cities, which can cause traffic congestion and accident at urban intersections
in China. The mixed traffic flow of the pedestrians and bicycles on the crosswalks is
a usual phenomenon in Chinese cities. Many scholars all over the world have
conducted research in this area. The research was mainly about the characteristics of
pedestrians and bicycles separately without considering them as a traffic element.
The objective of the research is to consider pedestrians and bicycles as one unit on
the crosswalks of the signalized intersections, and it is very important to create the
mixed traffic control strategy.
In most developed countries, the conflict between the pedestrians, bicycles
and vehicles is not obvious because of the few pedestrians and bicycles. The
permitting signal strategy for right turning vehicles is always adopted in these
countries (Kell, 1991; TRB, 2000). In Chinese cities, the conflicts in the signalized
intersection are very obvious, because there are many pedestrians and the bicycles in
the intersections. Many scholars in China studied the issues about the conflicts
between the pedestrians and bicycles and vehicles. Yan analyzed the conflict
problems between the pedestrians, bicycles and vehicles, and proposed advice about
this problem (Yan, 2006). Zhang proposed the control condition for the right turning
vehicles considering the demand of the pedestrians crossing (Zhang, 2008). Wang
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proposed the Scientific Demonstration on Pre-Turn-Right in the signaled

intersection (Wang, 2006). Ni Ying proposed the advice to decrease the conflicts
between the pedestrians, bicycles and vehicles based on the exclusive right-turn
lanes and the exclusive signal (Ni, 2007).
From the analysis of the signal control strategy for the right turning vehicles,
it is shown that the pedestrians and the bicycles are not considered as one main
object for the study of the signal control strategy in developed countries. Therefore,
the permitting signal control strategy is always adopted in these countries. Based on
the mixed traffic of the signalized intersection, the pedestrians and the bicycles are
considered as one main object to study the signal control strategy, and they are
considered as one unit in this paper. A novel signal control strategy for right turning
vehicle of the signalized intersection is proposed based on the pedestrians and
bicycles conglomeration. This new strategy is good for the safety and the operation
for the intersection.
THE PEDESTRIANS AND BICYCLES CONGLOMERATION
Before getting into the definition of the pedestrians and bicycles
conglomeration, it is necessary to analyze the releasing characteristic in the green
time of the signalized intersection (Liu, 2008). In Chinese cities, there are many
pedestrians and bicycles to cross the intersection but because of the red light of the
controller, there will be a lot of pedestrians and bicycles assemble at the stop line.
When the green light of the controller gets the assembled pedestrians and bicycles
begin to enter the crosswalk together and the shape likes the pack, the assembled
pedestrians and bicycles will enter the crosswalk and the coming pedestrian and the
bicycle will enter the crosswalk at random times.
PROT&PERM SIGNAL CONTROL STRATEGY FOR THE RIGHT
TURNING VEHICLE
From the field survey in the intersection of Beijing, it is found that there are
many pedestrians and bicycles crossing the intersection, and the conflict between the
P&B and the right turning vehicle is obvious. Perm strategy is adopted in many
intersections of Chinese cities, it is dangerous for the P&B to across the intersection,
and the efficiency is influenced seriously. Therefore, this paper proposed a novel
strategy of the prot & perm for the right turning vehicles in order to weaken the
conflict between the P&B and the right turning vehicles.
CONFLICT TIME BETWEEN P&B AND BICYCLES
The purpose of the new signal control strategy is to decrease the conflict
between the P&B of the first stage of the green time and the right turning vehicles,
and to increase the safe feeling of the P&B.
The pedestrians and the bicycles are considered as one unit to calculate, the
sum velocity of the P&B should be analyzed in order to calculate the conflict time. A
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new definition is proposed in this paper, which is the ideal sum velocity of the P&B.
The definition can be described that, using the simulation method, taking 0.1m/s as a
rank from the pedestrian velocity to the bicycle velocity, that can get several results
of the vehicle delay, and the minimum result of the P&B velocity is the ideal sum
velocity.
The conflict time between the P&B and the vehicle can be calculated by the
model as shown in Equation (1) (Liu, 2009).
T=L/V+x(Q/Y) (1)
Where T - conflict time, L - the length of the conflicting area, V - the reduced
velocity of the conglomeration, X - the time interval of the consecutive
conglomeration, Q - the length of the “suppositional grids” of the conglomeration
occupying, and Y - the transverse amount of the “suppositional grids”.
SIGNAL CONTROL STRATEGY FOR THE RIGHT TURNING VEHICLE
At present, the perm strategy for the right turning vehicles is adopted, as
shown in Figure1, phase 1,2,3,4 all is the perm strategy. In this signal control
strategy, the conflict is not obvious when few pedestrians and bicycles, however, is
obvious when many pedestrians and bicycles.
Based on the releasing characteristic in the green time of the signalized
intersection, there are many pedestrians and bicycles in the first stage of the green
time. The prot & perm signal control strategy is adopted for the right turning
vehicles, as shown in Figure 2, phase 1 and 4 is the prot strategy, and phase 2,3,5
and 6 is the perm strategy. This new strategy for the right turning vehicles can
decrease the conflict between the P&B and the vehicle, and increase the safety
feeling of the P&B.

Figure 1. Perm signal control strategy of the right turning vehicles.

Figure 2. Prot & Perm signal control strategy of the right turning vehicles.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1152
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SIMULATION STUDY
One intersection in the Huairou district of Beijing is chosen for example by
the method of simulation. This intersection is a four legged intersection, and there
are exclusive right turning lanes, shown as Figure 3. The morning peak hour 7:00-
8:00 was chosen for conducting the video recording survey, as shown in Table 1.
Table 1. The Peak Hour Traffic Flow of the Chosen Intersection.
vehicles P&B
Direction
left（pcu） through（pcu） right（pcu） pedestrian（p） bicycle（b）
east 173 157 139 529 228
south 6 721 121 467 361
west 58 118 32 313 294
north 137 820 212 456 332

Figure 3. The Roads of the Chosen Intersection.

As to the velocity survey, 6 intersections are chosen for the study, and there
are 255 pedestrians and 124 bicycles in the first stage of the green time. By the
software of SPSS, average velocity of pedestrian is 1.4m/s, and the bicycle is 1.9m/s.
Based on the model of the ideal sum velocity of the P&B, 6 kinds of the velocities
from 1.4m/s to the 1.9m/s are simulated. And the conflict time between the P&B and
the vehicles can be calculated from the Equation (1). Therefore, 6 kinds of results
can be got using the simulation software both of the Synchro and VISSIM.
Table 2. The Signal Timing Plan of the Chosen Intersection.
Sum velocity Pre-time Phase1 Phase2 Phase3 Phase4 Phase5 Phase6 Cycle
(m/s) (s) (s) (s) (s) (s) (s) (s) (s)
1.4 9 9 26 12 9 29 15 100
1.5 8 8 27 12 8 30 15 100
1.6 7 7 27 12 7 30 15 98
1.7 6 6 27 12 6 30 15 96
1.8 5 5 27 12 5 30 15 94
1.9 4 4 27 12 4 30 15 92

From the simulation result, as shown in Table 3, it can be seen that when the
sum velocity is 1.8 m/s, and the average delay of the intersection is 13.33s. From the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1153
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definition above, 1.8 m/s is the ideal sum velocity. Table 4 is an optimal timing plan
under this new signal control strategy.
Table 3. Simulation Results from the Vissim.
velocity
Per-time（s） Average delay(s)
（m/s）
1.4 9 136.50
1.5 8 136.10
1.6 7 135.35
1.7 6 136.55
1.8 5 130.33
1.9 4 140.75

Table 4. Optimal Timing Plan under the New Strategy.

Phase1(s) Phase2 (s) Phase3 (s) Phase4 (s) Phase5 (s) Phase6 (s) cycle(s)
Green time 5 27 12 5 30 15 94

CONCLUSION
Based on the two stages characteristics of the green time in the signaled
intersection, a novel signal control strategy for the right turning vehicles is proposed
to be the best idea. By the method of simulation, this new strategy can decrease the
conflict between the P&B and the vehicles, while increasing the safe feeling of the
P&B.
REFERENCES
Kell, H. J., and Fullerton, J. J. (1991). “Manual of traffic signal design”. Institute of
Transportation Engineers. pp.28-39.
Liu, J. G., Yu, Q., Rong, J., and Liu, X. M. (2008). “Mixed Traffic flow
characteristic of the crosswalk of the signal control crossing”. Computer
and Communications. pp.42-44.
Liu, J. G., Yu, Q., Rong, J., and Liu, X. M. (2009). “The research of the signal phase
sequence based on the pedestrians and bicycles conglomeration”. ASCE:
The 2009 International Conference of Chinese Transportation
Professionals (ICCTP 2009), Ha Erbin, pp.1611-1617.
Ni, Y. (2007). “Dealing with conflict between pedestrian and right turning vehicle in
signalized intersection”. Computer and Communications. pp.22-26.
Transportation Research Board (2000). Highway Capacity Manual. Washington,
D.C: National Research Council.
Wang, F. (2006). “Scientific demonstration on pre-turn-right”. Road Traffic & Safety.
pp.8-10.
Yan, P., and Zhang, M. (2006). “A discussion of the dealing method to the conflict of
right turn traffic and crossing pedestrians”. East China Highway. pp.87-89.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1154
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Zhang, M. M., Liu, Y. S., and Pei Y. L. (2008). “Control of Right-turn vehicles at
signalized intersections based on comfort and safety of pedestrian”. Journal
of Highway and Transportation Research and Development. pp.136-139.
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The Development and Cooperative-Competitive Relationships of Support

Service Systems among Global Shipping Hubs

Minhui GUO 1, R. Barry MCCOMIC 2, Cunqiang CAI3, Chengzhi DING4

1
Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, 200135; PH
(8621)58605132; FAX (8621)58871810; email: guominhui@gmail.com
2
Tulane University, 7180 Fairway Rd La Jolla, California, 92037; PH(858)4597799;
email: bmccomic@yahoo.com
3
Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai, 200135; PH (8621)68532256; FAX
(8621)68532256; email: ccq501@126.com
4
East China University of Political Science and Law, Shanghai, 200042; email:
samding@yahoo.cn

ABSTRACT
The support service systems of the Global Shipping Hub jointly participate
in international shipping resource allocation. This essay aims to analyze the
characteristics and development of support service systems among the major global
shipping hubs. It describes their cooperative-competitive relationships and
specifically gives guidance to the development of support service systems for the
Shanghai Shipping Hub. As the analysis reveals, the support service systems play a
significant role with respect to the allocation of international shipping resources by
how they impact the Business Systems of the shipping industry as well as the Value
Chain of the shipping enterprises. The leap-forward development of the support
service systems of the Shanghai Shipping Hub entails the cooperative-competitive
relationships among global shipping hubs as well as the upgrade demands of the
China shipping industry.

INTRODUCTION
Global shipping hubs refers to those internationally known cities which have
assembled shipping resources where outstanding economic and social benefits are
being produced via a globally optimal allocation of such resources within a
regulated, transparent, and efficient market(Xu, 2006). The definition of global
shipping hubs is not limited to “port” but refers to a superior concept “city” (Mao,
2010). The following are the three stages of development of global shipping hubs:
“shipping value-added” is the first stage; “production value-added” is the second;
and “service value-added” is the third (see Figure 1).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1156
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Figure 1.The Development Stages of Global Shipping Hubs.

With the development of shipping hubs, there involves a variety of shipping
related services including shipping finance, marine insurance, maritime arbitration,
legal services, classification society, exchange centers, ship repair and brokerage
(Lu, 2007). A set of market rules and practices are gradually accumulated,
developed, and finally established so they can create support service systems. The
contents of which are summarized as below (see Table 1).
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUPPORT SERVICE SYSTEMS
A long period of time is required for the establishment of the support service
systems of shipping hubs. Figure 2 summarizes the global historical development of
service systems while Figure 3 reveals China’s development. The following
conditions should be met for the development of support service systems:
Natural resources
The support service systems of global shipping hubs such as London, New
York, Rotterdam, Tokyo, Singapore, and Hong Kong have been developed on the
basis of the facilities, the loading/unloading capacity and the collection and
distribution systems of the port. Unlike in the past, natural resources nowadays play
a relatively less important role in the development of support service systems.
Economic conditions
The formation of support service systems depend on booming trade and
growth in the hinterland economy. Historically, the emergence and recession of the
global shipping hubs have kept pace with the shifting world economy, which
supports the basic proposition that economic conditions play a significant role in the
new formation of support service systems.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1157
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Table 1.The Contents of the Service Systems.

Service Key Activities Competitor Types
Shipping finance Loan & finance Bank; financial institution
Legal service Legal counseling; Litigation & Court; Arbitration
arbitration commission; Law firm
Shipping insurance Ship insurance & adjustment Insurance & adjustment
Corp.
Shipping brokerage Shipping trade & brokerage Exchange center; broker
Shipping consultancy Information service; consultancy Consultancy company
Inspection Vessel & equipment inspection Classification society
Industrial organization Shipowners Association; P&I Industrial organization &
Club; Forwarders Association association
Technological Technological research Academic society
specification
Teaching & Training Research, teaching & training Maritime college &
university; Maritime
organization
Transshipment Cargo Transshipment Shipping & wharfage
company
Ship building & Repairing, conversion & Shipyard
repairing building of the vessel
Towage & salvage Towage & salvage Towage & salvage company
Container yard LCL; cleaning & unstuffing; Terminal yard
Wharfage & Storage Cargo handling, barge, lashing, Wharfage & storage
service securing, storage & packing company
Forwarding & Forwarding & Customs Forwarding
Customs declaration declaration service company ;Customs
service declaration agency
Tally service Shipping tally service Tally company
Pollution prevention Disposal of bilge oil & water etc. Environmental service
service Corp.
Technology conditions
The service-related technology conditions mainly include management and
information technologies. Global shipping hub requires first-class port technology to
handle the large amounts of vessels, containers, cargoes. The service systems could
not be developed without the constant upgrading of technology.
Policy conditions
The competition among the global shipping hubs reflects the competition
among the relevant countries. After entry into the “production value-added” stage,
state policies have played a rather important role in the development of the shipping
hubs, and certain unfavorable conditions existing at the shipping facilities may be
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balanced by favorable or preferential state policies. Take Hong Kong and Singapore
for instance: the free port policy has effectively enhanced their support service
systems capacity. As the competition among global shipping hubs at the “service
value-added” stages becomes fiercer; the governmental policy conditions
undoubtedly become more critical to the competition.

Figure 2. The Global Historical Development of the Service Systems.

Figure 3. China’s Historical Development of the Service Systems.

Cultural and historical conditions.
Other important conditions concerning the formation of global shipping hubs
are the favorable cultural traditions and historical conditions. Take London for
example: the favorable cultural and historical conditions of trade and navigation, and
the existence of numerous prominent shipping talents, have largely accounted for the
fact that London still maintains the top global shipping hub position.
THE KEY ROLE OF THE SUPPORT SERVICE SYSTEMS
The support service systems play a significant role in the development of a
shipping hub in the following three aspects:
Participating in international shipping resource allocation
In the first and the second stages of the shipping hubs, the collection and
distribution function are related to the tangible commodities. In the third stage, the
shipping hub not only maintains its powerful function of collection and distribution
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of tangible goods (except London), but also integrates capital, information and
technology to actively participate in the allocation of resources worldwide, thereby
making a hub a center for global resource allocation.
The resource allocation function of global shipping hubs is mainly achieved
through its participation in the industrial value chain. The shipping industrial value
chain relates to the whole process by which the shift of cargoes from the shipper to
the consignee is fulfilled. The analysis of industrial value chain aims to facilitate the
shipping participants’ decision making process by disclosing the details of each
chain and analyzing in depth each chain’s function to the ultimate profit point. The
analysis thereby assists in ascertaining the shipping participants’ role in resources
allocation.
Taking the business systems of the container shipping industry for instance,
properly analyzing its value chain is done from the perspectives of understanding its
key activities and the supporting service activities. Figure 4 indicates the business
systems of the container shipping industry, and the middle five elements refer to the
value chain.

Shipper Shipment Provide Provide Load and Inland Consignee

origination containers and unload
operate shipments delivery
routing vessels
A comprehensive analysis of the shipping industry value chain and the

Figure 4. The Business Systems of Container Shipping Industry.

The value chain of the container shipping industry (see Table 2) indicates
that the support service systems have already penetrated each stage of the shipping
industry value chain and played a significant role (MergeGlobal Report, 2008).
Influencing the cost of product and services
International trade and transport were originally shaped by the comparison of
different costs. The support service systems have significant influence on the
shipping costs. Since the outset of the Yangshan Port, the Busan port canceled the
USD 19.5 charges per container in order to strive for more cargo sources.
Adjusting the relationship with the trade and other service industries
One of the important functions of the shipping service systems is to adjust
the relationship between shipping and other service industries. With the in-depth and
comprehensive development of shipping service industries, the shipping related
industries, i.e. port tourism has witnessed a rapid growth.
Comparison of support service systems of global shipping hubs
Each shipping hub has its own support service systems mode subject to its
port conditions. There are four modes in this regard, and are the following: London
mode; Rotterdam and New York mode; Hong Kong and Singapore mode; Japan
mode. The comparison of the competitive capacities among the service systems of
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the major global shipping hubs in relation to the shipping value chain is illustrated in
Table 3.

THE COOPERATIVE-COMPETITIVE RELATIONSHIP OF SUPPORT

SERVICE SYSTEMS
Table 2. The Value Chain of the Container Shipping Industry.
Historical
Key activities Service activities Total
growth
-Customer sales
-Shipment routing
Shipment -Shipping brokerage
-Capacity procurement
origination -Shipping consultancy $32 billion 10%
-Customer service
routing -Pollution prevention
-Billing
-Tracking
-Ownership of containers
Provide
-Storage and maintenance -Wharfage & Storage $8 billion 11%
containers
-Repositioning
-Shipping finance
-Shipping insurance
Provide and -Ownership of vessel
-Inspection $102 billion 7%
operate vessels -Operation of vessel
-Ship building & repairing
-Towage & salvage
-Transshipment
-Terminal control
Load and unload -Container yard
-Terminal operation $35 billion 11%
shipments -Wharfage & Storage
-Container handling
-Tally service
-Control of trucks
-Forwarding & Customs
Inland delivery -Ownership of railroad $28 billion 7%
declaration service
-Container handling
*Historical growth: (revenue 1997-2007)

Cooperation among support service systems of the global shipping hubs

As illustrated in Table 3, the support service systems of different shipping
hubs have jointly contributed to the development of the global shipping industry,
while each shipping hub has its own focus of developments. The different value
chains and geographic location of the shipping hubs can be connected only by a
close and thorough cooperation among each shipping hub. The support service
systems of the shipping hubs have cooperated in the following ways:
1. Capital. Shipping industry, as a capital-intensive industry, has been
penetrated by international funds, which have controlled the key resources of
shipping companies, lines, wharfs, and shipping services. It has been well
understood so far that the trend of service industries is to participate in capital
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markets and to create the interaction between shipping and capital. During the year
of 2007, the BDI acquired a 150% increasing rate, which was attributable to large-
scale capital sources entering the shipping markets. As capital has entered the
shipping industry, it has improved the cooperation among the service systems and
facilitated the creation of global uniform standards in relation to the shipping
services.

Table 3.The Comparison of Support Service Systems.

Shipment Provide Provide Load and Inland
origination containers and unload delivery
Summary routing operate shipments
vessels
London -Small-scale port service
-Global shipping service
center
New York -Hinterland economic
shipping hub
-Strong financial and
capital service
Tokyo -Biggest container port in
Japan
-Developed and scattered
shipping service
Rotterdam -Hinterland economic
shipping hub
-Logistics center
Singapore -Transshipment center
-Open policy
Hong Kong -Transshipment center
-Advanced capital
management
Pusan -Global shipping hub
-Small-scale port service
Shanghai -Large-scale throughput
-Underdeveloped
shipping services
*Competition capacity: (Weak) (Stronge)

2. Information and technology. As transnational companies’ activities have

penetrated the worldwide sphere, the ports have gradually begun to serve customers
with uniform technology and information. All the shipping hubs pay more and more
attention to the application of the new technology systems; the cooperation of global
shipping hubs in the area of information and technology have dramatically increased
cargoes handling speed and improved shipping service quality.
3. Lines. The global shipping hubs have a long history of cooperation of the
shipping lines in the form of shipping companies’ alliances. Through the cooperation
of the shipping lines, they have enjoyed a very close partnership and been able to
respond to market changes rapidly and together realize cost savings. The customers
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have benefited from the excellent port coverage and attractive transit times (Hapag-
Lloyd, 2007).
4. Talents. Shipping talents should be the most critical aspect of the shipping
services industries. The cooperation and alliance among ports start from the shipping
talents’ exchanges. During the last 10 years, the flow of shipping talents has been
increased dramatically. The considerable policy advantages of Singapore and Hong
Kong have attracted top shipping talents which have relocated from London and
New York. This has benefited the rapid growth of the service systems.
Competition among the support service systems of global shipping hubs
There is broad consensus that competition among the support service
systems of global shipping hubs is especially fierce among the shipping hubs
geographically close to each other. The competition in this regard is mainly focused
on the following aspects:
1. Ship registry and management. The number of the ship registries is not
only one of the most important indicators of the shipping capacity of a country but
also the source of large amounts of incomes since it promotes the development of
services items. Panama, Liberia, Cyprus, and Singapore all provide preferential
policies to encourage foreign ships to be registered in their countries. Nearly 50% of
the Chinese ocean vessels have been registered in the foreign countries which lead
to a great loss in the area of ship registry (Jia, 2009). One key issue to be considered
for Shanghai’s development of its global shipping hub is to attract the return of these
vessels.
2. Cargo sources. Competition for cargo is quite common among those
global shipping hubs geographically close to each other, such as Shanghai, Tokyo,
Osaka, Busan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Kaohsiung. These Asian countries have
made huge investments in their deepwater port, aiming to win the competition race
on port facilities. By their high efficiency of customs clearance and favorable port
environments, certain foreign ports attract many cargo sources from China, such as
the Busan port where 40% of the containers are transshipments and 90% of the
cargo is from China.
3. High value-added services. The high value-added services, such as
shipping finance, marine insurance, maritime arbitration, legal services and shipping
consultancy are mainly concentrated in London. New York and Tokyo are
progressively expanding these services based on their respective advantages.
Germany has established a substantial number of shipping finance funds (KG Fund)
to the point that the total amount of German shipping financing has exceeded the
amount of that in the UK.
The competition and cooperation among the support service systems of
different global shipping hubs should continue for a long time and promote the
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development of the shipping service sector.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPPORT SERVICE SYSTEMS FOR THE
SHANGHAI SHIPPING HUB
The Port of Shanghai, managed by Shanghai International Port, faces the East
China Sea to the east and Hangzhou Bay to the south. It is a critically important
transportation hub for the Yangtze River region and the most important gateway in
China for foreign trade (Wikipedia, 2009). In 2009, the Port of Shanghai’s container
throughput is close to Singapore’s and is expected to surpass Singapore and become
the world's No.1 container port in 2010.
Although Shanghai’s container throughput ranks 2nd largest in the world, the
support shipping service level is quite low. Global shipping finance transactions
reach hundreds of billions USD annually, but Shanghai accounts for less than 1
percent (Oriental Morning Post, 2009). The comparison among the major ports of
their throughput to total volume of shipping finance is shown below (see Figure 5).

Figure 5. The Comparisons among the Major Ports of Their Throughput to

Total Volume of Shipping Finance.
In April 2009, the Chinese Government formulated the governmental policy
for the construction of the Shanghai global shipping hub, with the goal of developing
into a “resources allocation” hub (State Council of PRC, 2009). Shanghai is the most
potential city to be developed into a shipping service center by integration of
shipping resources and the accumulation of capital, technology, information, and
human resources. The Shanghai shipping hub should take full advantage of the
cooperative-competitive relationships among major global shipping hubs as well as
the upgrade demands of the China shipping industry, aiming to become the shipping
service leader in the East Asia area.
CONCLUSION
This essay gives a comprehensive analysis of global shipping hubs, including
their contents, developments, cooperation and competition, and the opportunities that
Shanghai has in the future. Generally, Shanghai is anticipated to have at least 20
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year’s prime time for development and is expected to change the global structure of
shipping support service systems. In the future, Shanghai is expected not only to
establish new top-level support service industries but also upgrade its existing service
systems by taking full advantage of cooperation and competition relationships with
the service systems of other shipping hubs.
REFERENCES
Hapag-Lloyd A. G. (2007). “Grand alliance successful cooperation extended for 10
years.” Press Release; August 1st, 2007; http://www.hapag-
lloyd.com/downloads/press_and_media/press_releases/Press_Release_200
7_08_01_en.pdf
Jia, Y. (2009). “On the establishment of shanghai shipping hub”
http://www.sh.xinhuanet.com/zhuanti2009/2009-
04/29/content_16391521.htm
Lu, H. (2007). “On the Establishment of the double-engine development mode of
shanghai shipping center and shipping service center” China Port,
2007(12).
Mao, B. (2010). “On the definition of shipping hub.” http://sisi-
smu.org/viewarticle.asp?ArticleID=4637&ClassID=71
MergeGlobal Report. (2008). “Insomnia: Why challenges facing the world container
shipping industry make for more nightmares than they should.”
http://www.americanshipper.com/NewWeb/TF2008/PDF/MGI_Insomnia_
68-85_AS0708_lrsp.htm
Oriental Morning Post. (2009). To shift the gravity from loading/unloading capacity
to shipping service systems, dated April 1, 2009
http://www.sh.xinhuanet.com/zhuanti2009/2009-
04/01/content_16130969.htm
State Council of PRC. (2009). “The opinion of the state council on promoting the
development of shanghai’s modern service industry and advanced
manufacturing industry, and promoting the construction of shanghai
international financial center and international shipping center”, Guo Fa
(2009) No.19, dated April 14, 2009
Wikipedia. (2009). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Shanghai
Xu, P. (2006). “On development of shanghai shipping center by mr. xu peixing, the
head of shanghai port authority.” China Shipping Gazette Dec 2006.
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Revisiting Delay Model of Signalized Intersections

Ling-jie LI1, Xiao-kuan YANG2 and Xin-yue CHEN3

1
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124,
China; Tel: (0086) 13522110235; Fax: (0086-10) 6739-2991; E-mail:
lilingjie185@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124,
China; Tel: (0086-10) 67391678; Fax; (0086-10) 6739-2991; E-mail:
xiaokuan@bjut.edu.cn
3
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124,
China; Tel: (0086) 15210816890; Fax: (0086-10) 6739-2991; E-mail:
chenxinyue@emails.bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Vehicle delays at signalized intersections are an important factor in evaluating
the operation efficiency and the level of service at intersections. At present in China,
some research institutes and researchers are working on delay models from
theoretical studies. They often directly use models from foreign countries without
calibration or modifications, which often results in significant discrepancies between
the theory and reality. The objective of this paper is to establish a delay model that is
adequate for the actual traffic conditions in Beijing. The model can provide a better
ground for planning and design of intersections. For this reason a total of forty
signalized intersections in Beijing were selected to conduct the investigation,
together with the analysis on vehicle delay and queue length. Based on the regression
analysis with field data, a planning-based delay model at signalized intersections is
proposed. The result from this study shows that this model greatly simplifies the
procedure of the theoretical delay model. It also avoids cumbersome and complicated
calculations of the traditional delay model. In conclusion, the model is an effective
evaluation tool and the results are in line with the actual traffic situations in Beijing.

INTRODUCTION
Delay is the lost time in the process of vehicle operation caused by traffic
disruption, traffic management and control facilities. It reflects not only the degree of
comfort of drivers, fuel consumption and lost travel time, but also the signal control
and the rationality of traffic design. Therefore, the analysis on delay has a great
significance in evaluating the level of service, the control strategies, and traffic
design at signalized intersections. In addition, it is also an important factor in
evaluating the operating efficiency at signalized intersections.
There are many methods for calculating the delay at signalized intersections.
The procedure and method given by the HCM in the United States represent the main
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study results in this field in recent years. HCM (including the editions of 1985, 1994,
1997) and the latest edition of HCM 2000 give several methods of delay analysis
which reflect the development of research trends. The HCM published in 2000 has a
comprehensive discussion on the impact of various factors to delay. A trend in recent
research is to consider the impact of traffic characteristics and environment on delay
(Shao, 2002; Pu et al., 2005). For a low saturation many delay models give accurate
estimates, whereas at a high degree of saturation approximation methods are often
used. Therefore seeking a more accurate estimate of delay under a higher saturation
is a direction on delay study.
In this study, a delay model of through lanes from the perspective of planning
and design at signalized intersections in Beijing is proposed. It provides a theoretical
basis for planning department to make planning and design decisions on signalized
intersections, traffic management, and control, and can be used for feasibility studies.
The objective of this study is to identify the statistical characteristics of delay and
conduct a regression analysis based on the field data in order to obtain a quantitative
model. It is worthy to emphasize that this regression model only applies to the
signalized intersections in Beijing.
In this study 30 approaches were selected to conduct a statistical analysis on
delay from 80 video tapes of signalized intersections in Beijing by using the method
of field observation given by HCM 2000. With delay as dependent variable, capacity
of approach and arriving traffic volume as independent variables, regression analysis
was conducted to obtain the delay model which is consistent with the actual traffic
conditions in Beijing.

THE SURVEY OF HCM 2000 ON DELAY

The introduction
There are many methods for observing the delay, such as the observational
method using test vehicles, vehicle tracking method for recording of arrival and
departure volume in each cycle. The method given here is to observe the queuing
vehicles in videos of intersections directly and calculate the delay. Observers began
to record at the beginning of red signal indication. The numbers of queuing vehicles
and stopping vehicles were recorded from the videos in each interval (usually 15s),
along with the arrival volume and the green time ratio at each corresponding
approach, as shown in Table 2 (Ren et al., 2008).
Data collection
The data collection and calculation procedure is described in the following steps:
(1) Making a summary of field data and fill in the calculation table (Table 2) in
order to calculate the number of queuing vehicles at the period of investigation.
The total number of queuing vehicles is equal to the sum of the number of
queuing vehicles in each interval.
(2) The average queuing time for each vehicle can be calculated by:
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
d vq   I s 
Viq 
  0.9 (1)
 Vtot
 

Where: I s ——interval of time, s;

V iq ——the total number of queuing vehicles, veh;

Vtot ——the number of arrival vehicles, veh;

0.9——correction factor.
(3) In accordance with the formula shown in the calculation table, the stopping rate
and the average number of stopping vehicles can be calculated. The stopping
rates can be calculated by:
the total number of stopping vehicles
FVS   100% (2)
the total number of arrival vehicles
Where: FVS——stopping rate, %;
The average number of stopping vehicles can be calculated by:
the total number of stopping vehicles
the number of stopping vehicles  (3)
the number of lanes  the number of cycles
(4) According to Table 1, the correction factor CF for each stopping vehicles, which
is an amendment to the reducing and accelerating delay, can be looked up in the
following table.
Table 1. Correction Factor on Delay, CF(s).
Free speed(km/h) ≤7veh 8-19 veh 20-30 veh
≤37 +5 +2 -1
37-45 +7 +4 +2
＞45 +9 +7 +5
(5) The average control delay can be calculated by the following formula:
d  d vq  d ad (4)

Where: d ——the average control delay, s;

dvq ——the average queuing time, s;

d ad ——FVS×CF.
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Table 2. The Calculation of Control Delay at Intersection.

The control delay at intersection
The name of intersection Time
Approach observers
Initial observation data
The number of arrival
The number of lanes, N
vehicles
The number of stopping
Free speed, FFS(km/h)
vehicles
Intervals, I Cycle length
Field observation data
The The number of queuing vehicles
Time NO. of Intervals
cycle 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Calculation

Vstop
The total number of queuing vehicles, V iq  The stopping rate, FVS 
Vot


The average time of queneing vehicles,

The reducing and accelerating delay,

d vq   I s 
Viq 
  0.9  d ad  FVS  CF 
 Vtot
 

The correction factor, CF (Table 6-1) Control delay， d  d vq  d ad 

The notes
(1) Before the detailed investigation, observers estimate the average free speed at
each period of survey time. The free speed is assumed as the speed of vehicle
departing the intersection without obstruction when the green indication extends
to a certain length. This speed can be acquired at the point of upstream which
locates at the mid-block between the intersections not affected by the queuing
vehicles.
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(2) Investigation is conducted at the beginning of the red indication. It is better that
there are no remaining queuing vehicles after the previous green indication.
(3) If the intersection is signal controlled, the sampling interval should guarantee
that it cannot be divided by cycle length. Otherwise it may lack randomness of
samples.
(4) The ending time of the investigation should be determined in advance in order to
clarify the final number of arrival vehicles or stopping vehicles at the period of
investigation. From arrival vehicles, if a vehicle stopped several times, the
number of stopping vehicles should be only recorded as one time.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF CONTROL DELAY

Gray relational analysis on factors related to delay
Some studies on delay model have already been conducted. The selection of
input vectors is mainly based on personal experience. In fact, in one hand, there are
many factors relating to control delay. On the other hand, the relationship is
nonlinear, and the causality is not defined. The method of gray correlation analysis
has been used in geology, exploration, exploitation, environmental protection and
economic analysis. Gray correlation analysis is an effective method to examine the
relationship between several variables based on statistic data. It can judge the
interrelationship based on two sets of data according to the extent of link between
these two variables (Peng, 2008). However, the method of gray correlation analysis
for the selection of input vectors has not been used in delay model. In this study, this
method can help us select the input vectors more reasonable.
The basic idea of gray correlation analysis is to determine the relation
between influencing factors and control delay according to the similarity of various
influencing factors. In this study the control delay for each vehicle at one approach
was set as the mother factors series; the capacity of approach, the number of arrival
vehicles, the queuing length, the cycle length and the effective green time are chosen
as effective factors series, which are sub-factors series.
Assuming there is a group of discrete series:
 x0 (t ) (t = 1,2,…,m)

 xi (t ) (i = 1,2,…, n; t = 1,2,…,m)

Of which,  x0 (t ) are the mother factors series;  xi (t ) are the sub-factors

series. The formula of correlation coefficient can be expressed as follows:

 min   max (5)
 0i (k ) 
 0i (k )   max

Where,  is resolution ratio whose role is to improve the significant

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difference between correlation coefficients. Generally  equals 0.5.

 0i (k )  x0 (k )  xi (k )
 max  max  0i (k )
 min  min  0i (k )
(6)

To process disperse data efficiently, arithmetic averages of  0i (k ) are used

as the correlation degree. The formula of the correlation degree is as follows:

N
1
r0i 
N

k 1
0i (k )
(7)
From the videos of investigation, 20 approaches were selected as sample data
to calculate the correlation degree, as shown in Table 3.
Table 3. Sample Data of Gray Correlation Analysis.
The number of
Control Capacity of Queuing Cycle Effective green
NO. arrival
delay/s approach/veh length/veh length/s time/s
vehicles/veh
1 7.45 991.83 378 161 161 84
2 8.85 1015.07 360 182 146 78
3 8.78 902.50 255 128 120 76
4 9.65 814.77 220 119 555 119
5 13.12 756.91 230 172 246 49
6 21.20 268.97 143 184 191 27
7 22.68 266.20 183 255 192 27
8 11.45 499.27 327 214 137 36
9 11.22 499.27 312 200 137 37
10 13.25 967.27 852 645 110 28
11 8.17 2020.91 1710 798 110 39
12 11.33 1108.33 366 237 120 35
13 6.44 2011.76 769 283 119 42
14 9.70 2372.05 1980 1239 161 67
15 7.16 896.89 733 300 161 38
16 9.68 2357.41 784 491 162 67
17 7.90 891.36 237 107 162 38
18 8.54 942.64 381 182 129 32
19 7.86 987.40 443 198 127 33
20 7.77 1481.76 608 270 159 62

The field data are processed and correlation degrees are obtained. The results
are shown in Table 4.
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Table 4. Results of Gray Correlation Analysis.

Capacity of The number of Queuing Effective green
Series Cycle length
approach arrival vehicles length time
Correlation
0.906 0.859 0.747 0.658 0.633
degree
From the table, it can be concluded that the capacity of the approach and the
number of arrival vehicles are selected as input variables.
Estimation of curve
Based on the field data, Shanghai, Hangzhou adopted the form of exponential
model on calculating the control delay (Li, 2006). Therefore, this study will focus on
the curve estimation to the control delay in order to obtain the delay model which is
suitable for the signalized intersections in Beijing.
20 approaches were selected as sample data, as shown in Table 5. Curve
estimation (exponential curve model) was conducted with control delay as the
dependent variable, the ratio of the number of arrival vehicles and the capacity of
approach as independent variable. Regression results are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Curve of control delay.

From the figure, it can be seen that the relationship between control delay and
the ratio of the number of arrival vehicles and the capacity of approach has a better
fit on an exponential model, with R2 equals 0.899. The formula is as follows:
q
16.105
d  0.039e c
(8)
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Table 5. Sample Data of Regression Analysis.

The name of intersection Approach d Q/C
Beichenxilu-Minzuyuanlu 1 7.45 0.3353
Upper left to lower
Beichenxilu-Minzuyuanlu 2 8.85 0.3405
right
Beichenxilu-Minzuyuanlu 3 8.78 0.3318
Zhongguancundajie-Zhichunlu 1 Upper right to lower 9.65 0.3435
Zhongguancundajie-Zhichunlu 2 left 13.12 0.3532
Fangzhuanglu-Pufanglu 1 4.37 0.2942
Fangzhuanglu-Pufanglu 2 4.33 0.2954
Upper to lower
Fangzhuanglu-Pufanglu 3 21.20 0.3615
Fangzhuanglu-Pufanglu 4 22.68 0.3754
Fuxinglu-Yongdinglu 1 Upper to lower 11.45 0.3511
Fuxinglu-Yongdinglu 2 Lower to upper 11.22 0.3433
Fuchengmenwaidajie-Zhanlanguanlu 1 13.25 0.3600
Upper to lower
Fuchengmenwaidajie-Zhanlanguanlu 2 8.17 0.3379
Fuchengmenwaidajie-Zhanlanguanlu 3 11.33 0.3481
Right to left
Fuchengmenwaidajie-Zhanlanguanlu 4 6.44 0.3129
Changneidajie-Changchunjie 1 9.70 0.3417
Upper to lower
Changneidajie-Changchunjie 2 7.16 0.3230
Changneidajie-Changchunjie 3 9.68 0.3402
Right to left
Changneidajie-Changchunjie 4 7.90 0.3279
Picaihutong-Xidanbeidajie 1 8.54 0.3398
Lower to upper
Picaihutong-Xidanbeidajie 2 7.86 0.3411
Dongsishitiao-Dongzhimenbeixiaojie 1 Upper left to lower 4.54 0.2844
Dongsishitiao-Dongzhimenbeixiaojie 2 right 7.77 0.3341
Dongsishitiao-Dongzhimenbeixiaojie 3 Upper right to lower 3.91 0.2968
Dongsishitiao-Dongzhimenbeixiaojie 4 left 6.82 0.3222
Xidawanglu-Guangqulu 1 Upper right to lower 17.66 0.3751
Xidawanglu-Guangqulu 2 left 15.28 0.3677
Xidawanglu-Guangqulu 3 Upper left to lower 18.03 0.3655
Xidawanglu-Guangqulu 4 right 12.79 0.3465
Dongsibeidajie-Chaoyangmenneidajie 1 Upper to lower 8.85 0.3302

Table 6. Results of Regression Analysis.

Summary of model coefficient
Equation
R Square F Sig. b1 B2

Exponential .899 249.914 .000 0.039 16.105

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Where, d is control delay，s;

q is the number of arrival vehicles, veh;
C is the capacity of approach, veh;
Validation of model
From the statistic data, five approached were selected as data base for model
validation. According to the delay model obtained in this study, a comparison
between the results from this regression model (dR) and the observation data with the
method of HCM 2000 (dO) was shown in Table 7:
Table 7. Comparison Analysis.
NO. dR dO d R  dO Percentage of relative error

1 16.39 17.66 1.27 7.18%

2 14.55 15.28 0.73 4.78%
3 6.99 6.82 0.17 2.53%
4 8.47 7.77 0.70 9.00%
5 7.95 8.85 0.90 10.12%
Mean 10.87 11.28 0.75 6.72%
In the period of investigation, according to the model proposed in this paper
the mean delay of straight lanes at one approach is 10.87s/veh. However, the delay
observed with the method of HCM 2000 is 11.28s/veh. The percentage of relative
error is less than 7%. It can be concluded that this regression model is feasible and
accurate which is suitable to the conditions of signalized intersections in Beijing.
CONCLUSION
From the result, it can be seen that this model can provide a better ground for
planning and design of intersections. It has the advantages of greatly simplifying the
expression of theoretical delay model and avoiding cumbersome and complicated
calculation using the traditional delay model. In conclusion, the model is an effective
evaluation tool and in line with the actual traffic situations in Beijing.
REFERENCES
Li, F. (2006). “Study on Model of delay and queue length at saturated intersections.”
Jilin University.
Peng, W. J. (2008). “Grey trend relational analysis and the application.” Wuhan
University of Technology.
Pu, Q., Huang, Q. C., and Yang, P. K. (2005). “Statistical model for delay of
intersection.” Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science). 33(10),
1309-1312.
Ren, F. T., Liu, X. M., and Rong, J. (2008). Traffic Engineering. China
Communications Press, Beijing.
Shao, C. Q. (2002). “Analysis of delay at urban signalized intersections.” Beijing
University of Technology.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1174
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Traffic Connection and Operation of Urban Intersection Connected with

Off-Ramps

Jianming DING1, and Huajing NING 2

1.
Transportation College, Southeast University. 2 Si Pai Lou, Nanjing; 210096,;
P.R. China; PH: 13505153668; email:djiming@seu.edu.cn
2.
Transportation College, Southeast University. 2 Si Pai Lou, Nanjing; 210096;
P.R.China; PH: 13913319683; email:ninghuajing2008@126.com

ABSTRACT
The problems resulted from the close connection design between the off-ramp
and the intersection nearby are analyzed firstly. This problem will induce increase in
traffic greatly, while coupled with the weaving behavior, will also result in traffic
congestion and chaos, speed reduction, and increase in traffic waiting delay. This has
become a traffic problem which cannot be ignored. Then the improvement measures
are given in order to explore the reasons for its congestion and how to alleviate
traffic conflict in the connection segment. Based on a typical project, the feasible
suggestions will be taken in order to reduce the conflict and improve the traffic
environment. The paper will be helpful for traffic organization between off-ramps
and intersections and for the great development of urban traffic system.
INTRODUCTION
With the development of the city, transportation demand grows correspondingly.
More and more cities build expressway to ease traffic pressure. But at the same time,
some other traffic problems occur. If the off-ramp connection segment is too close to
the downstream intersection, it would result in traffic congestion, traffic chaos, speed
reduction, and increase in traffic waiting delay in the scope of the intersection. It
would also be the capacity bottleneck of the urban road traffic system.
Scholars have made lots of research on the connection segment area. Jun (2000)
built a traffic flow model of connection segment. Yang (2003) analyzed that different
traffic organization impacts on the various traffic operation. Papageorgiou (1995)
proposed the optimal control theory of urban expressway and ground road. States
made provisions on the length of the off-ramp connection segment, minimum from
30m to 230m ranging based on experience value (TRB, 2004). In this paper, on the
off-ramp close to the downstream intersection condition, solutions are suggested to
solve the congestion of the connection segment in the urban expressway system. That
would be significant to ensure the traffic capacity and service level of urban roads.
Figure 1 shows the schematic diagram of connection segment.

Figure 1. The schematic diagram of connection segment.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1175
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MAIN REASONS IN CONGESTION

The off-ramp connection segment of urban expressway is the segment between
the end point of the off-ramp bridge and the queue tail at the downstream intersection,
which is an important component of urban roads (Zhang, 2002). Both urban
expressway and the ground roads belong to urban arterial roads, shouldering a large
number of traffic. It requires a larger capacity to ensure the normal operation, as the
flow is more concentrated in the connecting segment of the two parts. However,
limited by the actual ground restricted, the congestion frequently happens in the
connection segment.
The operation in the connection segment inextricably links with the interweaver.
The interweaver is defined as a process that two or more traffic flows spontaneously
change their lanes after driving a certain period of time in the same direction, without
any traffic control devices. The segment causing the interweaver is named
interweaving section (Yang, 2003). During the off-ramp design and construction
process, it’s common to put an off-ramp close to the downstream intersection and
join the off-ramp to the imported lane in order to complete the interweaver as soon as
possible. This method could converge the traffic influx at first and then evacuate the
traffic flow. But once the traffic flow increases with insufficiency segment length, it
would induce merging and interweaving in the intersection scope. As for the lack of
necessary traffic organization space, the queue and congestion would seriously
impact the traffic capacity, especially in the morning and evening peak periods. If
signal timing could not take a full account of the evacuation of intersection as the
traffic became heavy, the traffic congestion is inevitable. Road designers consider the
limited evacuation capacity of the intersection sometimes, but it still might not afford
the high flow to complete the interweaver with inadequate length. That may be
mainly affected by the impact of existing roads and buildings. That could seriously
affect the traffic capacity and service level of the urban expressway.
COUNTERMEASURE STUDY
For the problem of the off-ramp close to the downstream intersection, it mainly
relies on the improvisation of traffic organization. The traffic organization includes
three aspects: urban planning and design, road engineering and traffic management.
The organization could make the traffic flow more balanced and use road resources
more rationally. At the same time, it also could avoid resource waste and traffic jams.
Suggestions are given from the three stages of traffic organization to mitigate the
congestion in the connection segment (Li, 2008).
The stage of urban roads planning
(1) The overall layout strengthened and the transport structure optimization: It
might be advisable to give priority to the development of public transportation
and establish public transportation network. In this way, we could reduce traffic
volume and optimize the allocation of space resources. To reduce the traffic
demand, we should restrict private vehicle traveling, and carry out high-density
HOV lanes measures.
(2) Roads classification: Establish road system of function classification. Make
clear the road grade of the central area and link up with adjacent roads. That
could reduce vehicles mixing with each other, alleviate the traffic congestion,
and improve the accessibility. Enhance the road density of the central area to
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1176
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make sure each functional area is more rational (Wang, 2006).

The stage of roads design
(1) Vehicle-bicycle separation: According to the pedestrian flow, install addition
pedestrian subway or overpass for the existing intersection. In the intersection
with much interference from the non-motor vehicles, bicycles should be
separated in the underground passage. That method could effectively reduce
impact on the motor vehicles and also save parking waiting time for traffic
signal.
(2) Additional lanes: Set additional lanes and right turn lanes to raise intersection
capacity. We could use following methods: making use of the right side of the
carriage way, medial divider, pergola on the urban road and so on.
(3) Connection segment prolonged: To meet the ground condition, the connection
segment length should be prolonged. It could let ramp traffic flow and ground
one fully interweave before driving into the intersection, or use physical
isolation to separate from each other (Zhang, 2005).
The stage of traffic management and control
(1) The signal timing optimization: Make sure that the signal timing and road
traffic condition are in the real-time operation. According to the traffic situation
in the peak period, the traffic signal should adjust to enlarge the capacity of the
intersection.
(2) Intelligent transportation system (ITS) measures: With the intelligent
transportation system, maximize the use of the existing road resources, mainly
including two parts: ramp control and vehicle guidance. Specific measures
include proposing to circumvent a specific region in heavy traffic or change the
travel time, maintaining a certain speed, adopting reasonable import and export
ramp control strategy and so on. Make sure the urban expressway traffic flow
operation remains in a relatively smooth state (Chen, 2008).
(3) Channelization design: For the existing intersection, make the channelization
design include setting a reasonable traffic marking, traffic sign and traffic
island and so on.
(4) Left-turn-limited measures: Forbid the left turn of a certain direction. Turn in
front or in the downstream intersection. In addition, we could change the left
turn into right turn and U-turn, in order to reduce the congestion in the
intersection. It could enlarge the traffic capacity and transfer the contradiction
scattered around the surrounding roads.
(5) The public transportation optimization: It is also important to reasonably set the
bus stop and the entrances along the road. It could optimize the traffic
organization and also reduce traffic pressure in the intersection and the main
roads.
PROJECT EXAMPLES
The project is located at the intersection which joins the Xinmofan road to the
central road. The joint connects the Xuanwu lake tunnel in the east, extension linking
the Xinzhuang interchange and the Xuanwu road. It links the second Yangtze river
bridge and Shanghai-Nanjing expressway through the rounding highway. The joint
connects the Pinggugang interchange in the west, extension linking the city-west
main road. In the east-west direction, it connects the Drum Tower and the Central
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1177
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Gate interchange, so its location and function is very important. After the rapid
transformation of the Xuanwu Avenue, a large number of high-speed continuous
traffic flow backlogs at the intersection through the Xuanwu lake tunnel. In the peak
period, vehicles in the intersection often queue to enter the tunnel, which causes
serious traffic conflict.
Xuanwu lake tunnel belongs to the urban expressway system. The design speed
is 60km/h and two-way six lanes. There was only 165m from the off-ramp of the
Xuanwu lake tunnel to the nearby intersection. In the peak hours of working day,
vehicles often queue to enter the intersection. In serious condition, the queue extends
to the inner tunnel, impacting the traffic capacity severely. According to the formula
for calculating the peak-hour factor:
the observed taffic volume in the peak hour
PDF=
the maximum flow rate in the peak hour
Before the transformation, according to the measurement, the PDF was 0.9686
in this connection segment. According to the Traffic Capacity Manual, the peak hour
factor is generally between 0.8-0.98. If it is more than 0.95, it means traffic is limited
by the capacity in the peak hour. Thus, the traffic volume in this segment was
restrained by the traffic capacity seriously. We should take road transformation to
relieve the traffic pressure.

The main problems in this section

(1) With off-ramp and road lanes unmatched, the interweaver between off-ramp
and the ground vehicles caused traffic jam.
(2) With an inadequate connection length, affected by the periodic lights of the
intersection, the connection segment was often submerged by the queue.
(3) There was a conflict between the off-camp and the turning lanes, making the
connection segment into the interweaving one. Forcible lane-changing in a
short distance not only deteriorated its own services, but also increased the
turbulence. That reduced the saturation flow valve of the front entrance
driveway.
(4) Bus stop setting in the connection segment had an impact on the traffic capacity.
Setting methods and opening location of bus stops had influence on the
follow-up traffic flow. How to set the location of bus stops and openings has
become an important issue in the connection segment.
(5) The settings of traffic signs and traffic makings also affected the length of the
connection segment.
(6) Unreasonable intersection channelization and traffic signal control would cause
traffic delays. The traffic management and control design at this intersection is
critical. We should give full consideration of the traffic volume in each
direction of the roads during the peak period, in order to advance the capacity
as much as possible (Li, 2007).
The general idea of grooming
This project was a transformation work, mainly implemented from two aspects:
the road engineering design and traffic management and control. There were four
main aspects in the transformation of the ground part of the Xinzhuang interchange:
extension of the ring road, additional right turn lane, signal control, optimization of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1178
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the bus routes and stops.

Driving from the Xuanwu lake tunnel, the left-turn traffic flow was turned into
a straight line; then it took a u-turn at the Luxiying road and turned right into the
Central road at last. The width of the Central road crossing had a corresponding
broadening with the capacity increasing. The bus stops located in the south side of
the intersection were moved southward, and the station in the north side of the
intersection was set to divide flow. The following shows the figure of general
reconstruction:

Figure 2. The figure of general reconstruction.

Reconstruction scheme
Reconstruction scheme in the east side of the intersection
(1) The original export ramp, three left turn lanes, one straight lane, and two right
turn lanes were turned into one left turn lane, four straight lanes, and two right
turn lanes. The left turn lane was only for buses and other social vehicles that
could use the straight lane through the Luxiying intersection to complete the
u-turn.

Figure 3. The figure of reconstruction in the east side.

Reconstruction scheme in the north side of the intersection
(1) The motor vehicle lane would replace the original non-motor vehicle one
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1179
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within 100m scope of the intersection in the south side of the road, which
turned the lanes into three. The non-motor vehicles would drive in the original
pavement and the new pavement would be constructed outside the original one
for pedestrians.
(2) A new 1.5m width bus stop would be built 50m away from the intersection in
the west side in order to divide the bus traffic flow in the south side. Buses
would be allowed to go straight in the right lane the lateral road.

Figure 4. The figure of reconstruction in the north side.

Reconstruction scheme in the west side of the intersection
(1) The existing non-motor lane width should be compressed. The stretching stage
changed from one left turn lane, two straight lanes, and one right turn lane into
one straight-right turn lane, one straight lane, one left turn lane and one u-turn
lane, setting additional u-turn markings and signals.
(2) The original two left turn lanes, three straight lanes, and one right turn lane were
turned into two left turn lanes, two straight lanes, and two right turn lanes in the
south side of the intersection in order to increase the right turn lanes.

Figure 5. The figure of reconstruction in the west side.

Reconstruction scheme in the south side of the intersection
(1) The non-motor lanes in the both of the roads were turned into motor lanes from
the intersection to the Public Transport Company, increasing the lanes in and
out of the intersection. The non-motor vehicles were made to drive in the
original pavement and the new pavement was constructed outside the original
one for pedestrians.
(2) The bus stop on the west side of the road was moved 80m southward and the
new bus stop was set.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1180
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(3) The entrance lane was turned into one left turn lane, three straight lanes, and
two right turn lanes.

Figure 6. The figure of reconstruction in the south side.

CONCLUSION
Too close to a downstream intersection, the off-ramp of the urban expressway
would generate serious traffic congestion and conflicts in this segment. According to
the situation, we analyze the reasons and give the advisable suggestions to solve the
problems on three aspects of the traffic organization. Based on a typical project, in
which the connection segment was from the Xuanwu lake tunnel to the intersection
of the Central road, we make some feasible suggestions in universal significance to
provide guidance for other similar projects. It is intended to be helpful for the urban
expressway planning, construction and reconstruction.
REFERENCES
Chen, J., Yu, H., Wang, W. Ding, F., and Yuan, Q. (2000). “Analysis and evaluation
of traffic flow in the urban elevated road with its off-ramp joint’s weaving
section.” China Journal of Highway and Transport. Vol. 13 No. 3.
Chen, X. “Research on ramp optimization metering strategy and method in urban
expressway.” Jinlin University.
Georgiou, M. (1995). “An integrated control approach for traffic corridors.”
Transportation Research Part C, 3(1): 19-30.
Li, S. (2007). “Study on optimization methods of auxiliary road controlling
parameters of urban expressway off-ramp.” Jinlin University.
Li, Z., and Shen, W. (2008). “Optimization study on Tianjin traffic organization.”
Journal of Tianjin institute of Urban Construction. Vol. 14, No. 1.
Transportation Research Board. (2004). “NCHRP report 332: access management on
crossreads in the vicinity of inter-changes.” TRB, National Research
Council. Washington, D.C.
Wang, S. (2006). “Study on the characteristics of the traffic in the central area of the
city and the traffic organization.” Shanxi Architecture, Vol. 32, No. 23.
Yang, X., and Di, S. (2003). “Research of traffic organizing models of urban
expressway with off-ramp joint.” Journal of transportation engineering and
information. No. 2, Vol. 1.
Zhang, H., Yang, X., and Zhao J. (2005). “Study on traffic connection and operation
of urban expressway.” Urban Transport of China. Vol. 3, No.1.
Zhang, X. (2002) “Research on the capacity model of urban expressway off-ramp
joint.” Planners.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1181
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An Equilibrium-right-of-way Based Capacity at Signalized Intersections

Wanchao ZHANG1, Huan CHENG2, Xiaokuan YANG3

1
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing,
China. PH: (8610) 6739-2394; Email: zhangwanchao2008@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing,
China. PH: (8610) 6739-2394; huanhuan1010@emails.bjut.edu.cn
3
Professor, Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology,
Beijing, China. PH: (8610) 6739-1678; Email: xiaokuan@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Traditionally, a signalized intersection capacity can’t be discussed without
putting signal timing into consideration. In general signal timing includes
determination of cycle length, number of phases, green interval, yellow time and all
red. As a result capacity varies with any change of parameters in signal timing.
This is the traditional way of estimating capacity, namely timing-based capacity
calculation approach. However, at the planning stage if planners or decision
makers hope to know the future conditions of the network they have planned it is
impossible for them to evaluate the performance in terms of v/c ratio because of
undetermined capacity of an intersection. A new concept of so-called
“equilibrium-right-of-way based capacity” is introduced in this paper to overcome
this difficulty. This capacity is purely based upon the geometrics of an intersection
(number of lanes and lane allocation) rather than the signalization. The motivation
behind introducing this concept intends to have capacity of an intersection be a sole
value once the geometrics of the intersection are set. Soleness of capacity for
interrupted flow facility should be the focus of capacity studies. With this concept,
capacity formula based upon the equilibrium-right-of-way is then developed to
estimate the capacity of signalized intersections. The result from this study is of great
significance for the development of capacity analysis, particularly for the interrupted
flow facilities.

BACKGROUND
Traditionally, methods of computing the capacity of signalized intersection,
like HCM method, stop line method, conflict point method, all based on the signal
timing. However, at the planning stage, the special signal timing condition can’t be
determined. As a result, the capacity of signalized intersection can’t be computed.
Planners and decision makers also can’t know the future conditions of the network
they have planned. It is impossible for them to evaluate the performance in terms of
v/c ratio because of the undetermined capacity at the new intersection. A new
concept of “equilibrium-right-of- way based capacity” is introduced in this paper to
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1182
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solve this problem. It is purely based on the geometrics of an intersection (number of

lanes and lane allocation) rather than the signalization. With this concept, the
capacity of signalized intersections is estimated by equilibrium-right-of-way. The
result from this study is of great significance for the development of capacity
analysis, particularly for the interrupted flow facilities.
LITERATURE REVIEW
HCM 2000 (HCM, 2000) segmented the intersection into lane groups that
considers both the geometry of the intersection and the distribution of traffic
movements. A saturation flow rate for each lane group is computed according to
Equation (1)
s =so N f w f HV f g f p fbb f a f LU f LT f RT f Lpb f Rpb (1)

s — saturation flow rate for subject lane group, expressed as a total for all
lanes in lane group (veh/h);
s o — base saturation flow rate per lane (pc/h/ln);
N — number of lanes in lane group;
f* — adjustment factor for the variables influence on saturation flow rate;
Minderhoud et al (Minderhoud, 1997) considered that given the dependence
of capacity on traffic control, weather and other changing conditions, there is no
generally valid single capacity, but instead capacity is a stochastic variable following
a distribution function. However, these conclusions were taken into consideration
from a microcosmic view; the author didn’t study the uniqueness of capacity from a
macroscopical view.
Abishai polus et al (Abishai polus 2002) investigated the meaning of freeway
capacity and explored the stochastic nature. It is proposed that the 5th percentile of
distribution could be adopted as the representative design value of capacity.
The analysis procedure of the Canadian Capacity Guide (CCG, 1985) for
signalized intersections is based on a lane-by-lane analysis. To estimate lane flow,
the Canadian guide applies turning factors, which are calculated based on the ratio of
turning movement saturation flow to the through movement.
Beijing municipal design institute brought forward the stop line method to
compute the capacity of signalized intersections. (Chen, 2002) This method regards
the stop line of entrance as the base level. If vehicles pass the stop line, they were
regard as pass though the intersection. The stop line method as follows (2):
3600 t g  t L
Cs   (2)
Tc ti
CS——capacity of one through lane (pcu/h);
TC——Cycle length(s);
tg——green time of one cycle(s)；
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1183
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tL——lost green time of one cycle(s);

ti——average time-distance(s).
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
The motivation behind introducing this concept intends to have capacity of an
intersection set. Uniqueness of capacity for interrupted flow facility should be focus
of capacity studies. The conclusion has great significance for estimating of capacity
in planning stages.
METHODOLOGY
The capacity of lane group was computed by equation (3) in the highway
capacity manual of American.
gj
cj  sj (3)
C0
Cj——capacity of lane group j(pcu/h);
Sj——saturation flow of lane group j(pcu/h);
gj
——effective green time ratio of lane group j(s).
C0
Equation (3) shows that the capacity of lane group has a great relationship
with effective green time ratios. The capacity of signalized intersection is the sum of
each lane group. The capacity of signalized intersection based on this method
changes with the variety of signal timing conditions. Signal timing conditions
include cycle length, number of phases, green interval, yellow time, and all red.
The calculation method of capacity of china mainly includes the stop line
method, conflict point method and so on. These methods all have the same
relationship with time conditions. Only with the specific signal timing, these methods
can be used to compute the capacity of signalized intersection. For this reason, such
capacity should be called the capacity under the specific signal timing conditions. In
the concrete operational stage, these methods have great significance for the
management and control of signalized intersection. But in the planning stage, the
specific signal control program is unknown, it is not appropriate to compute the
capacity of signalized intersection according to the method that is used to estimate
the capacity in the concrete operational stage. Therefore, at the planning stage, how
to calculate the capacity of a signalized intersection becomes a major problem. In
order to overcome this difficulty, this study introduces the
“equilibrium-right-of-way” method. “Equilibrium-right-of-way” is a method which
allocates the right of way according to the lane number and lane allocation, and then
according the base saturation flow rate to compute the capacity of signalized
intersection in the planning stage.

Qualitative Analysis of the Sole Capacity

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1184
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In a particular signalized intersection, the number of vehicles passes through

the intersection has a limit. Its value is established by the geometric characteristic of
the entrance lanes. This value is base on the capacity of the road, and it is relatively
stable. In the concrete operational stage, traffic conservator allocates the right of way
according to the arrive distribution of the vehicles. This management can improve
the capacity of signalized intersections. But this capacity is only called the capacity
that is under specific timing conditions, it is not the capacity that is mentioned in the
usual sense. The capacity of signalized intersection has a sole value. The value is
decided by geometric characteristics (lane number and lane allocation). This capacity
is the ideal capacity of signalized intersection. This paper introduced the
equilibrium-right-of-way method to calculate the ideal capacity of signalized
intersection at the planning stage. (The paper will then elaborate on this approach)
Theoretical Analysis of the Sole Capacity
The capacity of signalized intersection is computed by equation (3) according
to the HCM. From the equation (3), it is known that the fluctuations of capacity are
due to fluctuations of green time ratio. Theoretical assumptions of sole capacity as
follows:
 without regard to the green loss time
 According to the type of lane to determine the number of the phase
The capacity of signalized intersection is computed by the following equation
gj
cj  sj
C0
Effective green time is calculated by the following equation (4)
qd q
max[( ) j , ( d )' j ,......)
sj sj
g j  Ge (4)
Y

Effective green time: Ge  C0  L .

In the planning stage, without regard to the green time losses, namely L=0, Ge  C0 .

Volume ratio can be computed by the following equation (5)

j
qd q
Y   max[( ) j , ( d ) j ' .....] (5)
j 1 sj sj

The capacity of signalized intersections can be obtained by equation (6)

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1185
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qd q qd q
C0 max[( ) j , ( d )' j ,......) max[( ) j , ( d )' j ,......)
sj sj 1 sj sj
c jS j  j
  Sj  j
(6)
q q q q

C0
j 1
max[( d ) j , ( d ) j ' .....]
sj sj

j 1
max[( d ) j , ( d ) j ' .....]
sj sj
Where
C0——cycle length(s);
gj——effective green time of each phases(s);
Y——maximal volume ratio;
j——number of phase；
qd——design volume(pcu/h);
Sj——saturation flow rate of lane group;
Ge——total effective green time(s).
In the planning stage, qd and sj is fixed. From the equation (6) it can be
known that the capacity of a signalized intersection is determined by lane number
and lane allocation. It is also known that the variables affecting the capacity are fixed.
Therefore, the capacity of signalized intersections is a sole value.
Rationality of the capacity based upon the equilibrium-right-of-way
Equilibrium-right-of-way allocates the right of way according to the number
of lane. However, in the planning stage, lane number is determined by the design
volume, as equation (7)
DHV
n (7)
C1

Where
DHV——design hourly volume (pcu/h);
C1——capacity of one lane (pcu/h).
n——the number of the lane.
DHV has a great relationship with status quo and the forecast traffic volume.
Similarly, the number of left-turn lanes is also based on the traffic demand. Thus,
allocate the right of way according to design hourly volume; in essence, it allocates
the right of way according to the lane number and lane allocation. Equation (6)
illustrates the capacity of signalized intersections determined by the lane number and
lane allocation. Thus, according equilibrium-right-of-way to calculate capacity of
signalized intersection is reasonable.
EQUILIBRIUM-RIGHT-OF-WAY BASED CAPACITY
Theoretical assumptions:
 Not based upon the signal timing conditions, without regard to the green loss
time
 Allocation of the right-of-way only has a relationship with the lane number
and type of lane
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1186
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 Only take protective left turn into consideration

When geometrics of signalized intersections symmetry, equilibrium-right-of-way
based capacity
The symmetrical intersection is a kind of intersection that opposing entrance
lane has the same lane number.
(1) Take no account of turning lanes, assume that all lanes are though lanes
The capacity of signalized intersections can be calculated by equation (8)
n1 n2
C （n1ST   n2 ST  ） 2 (8)
n 1  n2 n1  n2

Where
ST——saturation flow rate of through lane (pcu/h);
n1——single entrance lane number of east-west direction;
n2——single entrance lane number of south-north direction;
(2) Take the turning lane into consideration
The capacity of left turn lane in east entrance direction can be computed by
equation (9)
N EL
CEL  N EL S L  (9)
NE  NS

Where
CEL——capacity of left turn lane group (pcu/h);
SL——saturation flow rate of left turn lane (pcu/h);
NEL——left-turn lane number of east entrance;
NE——lane number of east entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
NS——lane number of south entrance (don’t include right-turn lane) ;
The capacity of through lane group in east entrance direction can be
calculated by equation (10)
N ET
CET  N ET ST  (10)
NE  NS

Where
CET——capacity of through lane (pcu/h);
ST——saturation flow rate of through lane (pcu/h);
NET——through lane number of east entrance;
NE——lane number of east entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
NS——lane number of south entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
From the process of calculating the capacity described above, the capacity of
the symmetrical signalized intersection can be calculated by equation (11)
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N ij
C ij  N ij S j  (11)
N i  N i
Cij——the j lane capacity of i entrance direction, i value of 1, 2, 3, 4. Respectively
indicates east, south, west, north. j value of 1, 2. Respectively indicates left, through.
Sj——saturation flow rate of j lane (pcu/h);
Nij——lane number of i entrance j type lane;
Ni——lane number of i entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
Ni’——lane number of i entrance vertical direction (don’t include right-turn lane).
The capacity of signalized intersection is shown on equation (12)

C   Cij +NRSR (12)

i j

Where
SR——saturation of right-turn lane (pcu/h);
NR——number of right-turn lane.

When geometrics of signalized intersection are asymmetry, equilibrium-right-of-way

based capacity
When geometrics of signalized intersection is asymmetry, take the maximal entrance
lane number of the road.
The capacity of left-turn lane in east entrance direction can be calculated by the
following equation (13)
max( N EL , NWL )
CEL  N EL S L  (13)
max( N E，NW )  max( N S , N N )

Where
CEL——capacity of left turn lane (pcu/h);
SL——saturation flow rate of left turn lane (pcu/h);
NEL——left-turn lane number of east entrance;
NWL——left-turn lane number of west entrance;
NE——lane number of east entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
NS——lane number of south entrance (don’t include right-turn lane) ;
NW——lane number of west entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
NN——lane number of north entrance (don’t include right-turn lane) ;
Max(NE,NW)—maximal value of the entrance lane number in east-west direction;
Max(NS,NN)—maximal value of the entrance lane number in south-north direction;
The capacity of through lane group in east entrance direction can be
calculated by equation (14)
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max( N ET，NWT )
CET  N ET ST  (14)
max( N E，NW )  max( N S , N N )

Where
CET——capacity of through lane in east direction (pcu/h);
ST——saturation flow rate of through lane (pcu/h);
NET——through lane number of east entrance;
NWT——through lane number of west entrance;
NE——lane number of east entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
NS——lane number of south entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
NW——lane number of west entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
NN——lane number of north entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
Max(NE,NW)—maximal value of the entrance lane number in east-west direction;
Max(NS,NN)—maximal value of the entrance lane number in south-north direction;
Based on the above described, the capacity of the asymmetric signalized
intersection can be calculated by the following equation (15)
C   Cij  S R N R (15)
i j

Cij  N ij S j Rij

max( N ET , NWT )
R11  R31 
max( N E , NW )  max( N S , N N )

max( N EL , NWL )
R12  R32 
max( N E , NW )  max( N S , N N )

max( N NT , N ST )
R21  R41 
max( N E , NW )  max( N S , N N )

max( N NL , N SL )
R22  R42 
max( N E , NW )  max( N S , N N )
Where
C——capacity of signalized intersection (pcu/h);
Cij——the j lane capacity of i entrance direction, i value of 1, 2, 3, 4. Respectively
indicates east, south, west, north. j value of 1, 2. Respectively indicates left, through.
SR——saturation of right-turn lane (pcu/h);
NR——number of right-turn lanes;
Sj——saturation flow rate of j lane (pcu/h);
Rij——right of way of j lane in i entrance direction.
Nij——lane number of i entrance j type lane;
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1189
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NET——through lane number of east entrance;

NWT——through lane number of west entrance;
NNT——through lane number of north entrance;
NST——through lane number of south entrance;
NEL——left-turn lane number of east entrance;
NWL——left-turn lane number of west entrance;
NNL——left-turn lane number of north entrance;
NSL——left-turn lane number of south entrance;
NE——lane number of east entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
NS——lane number of south entrance (don’t include right-turn lane) ;
NW——lane number of west entrance (don’t include right-turn lane);
NN——lane number of north entrance (don’t include right-turn lane) ;
CONCLUSION
Traditionally, for signalized intersections the study on capacity is based on
signal timing. However, at the planning sage the signal timing conditions cannot be
planned for. How to calculate the capacity of signalized intersection becomes a
difficult problem. Equilibrium right-of-way is based upon the geometrics of the
intersection. Once the lane numbers and lane allocation have been fixed, the sole
capacity of the signalized intersection can be determined by the
equilibrium-right-of-way method. The equilibrium-right-of-way method provides
theoretical support for the design and evaluation of the planning intersection. The
application conditions of equilibrium-right-of-way are as follows:
 It applies to the capacity analysis of signalized intersection at planning stage.
 For exclusive lanes, the calculated capacity by this method has better
applicability.
This is a preliminary study for the capacity analysis at the planning stage. A follow
up study will be carried out to research all details of the mixed lanes.
REFERENCES
Abishai, P., and Moshe. A. (2002). “Stochastic nature of freeway capacity and its
estimation.” NCR Reaearch press, 2002, 842-852.
Chen, K., and Yan, B. (2003). “Capacity analysis of road.” China Communications
Press. 2003.
Minderhoud, .M.M, Botma H., and Boly, P. L. (1997). “Assessment of roadway
capacity estimation methods.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of
the Transportation Research Board, 1997, 1572:59-67.
Transportation Research Board. (2000). “Highway capacity manual 2000.” National
Research Council. Washington, D.C., 2000.
Teply, S. (1985). “Highlights of the Canadian capacity guide for signalized
intersections.” Transportation Research Record 1005,TRB, National
Research Council, Washington D.C., 1985,PP.20-28.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1190
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Capacity of Right-Turn Movement under Pedestrian’s and Bicycle’s Mutual

Influence at Signalized Intersections

Wan-chao ZHANG1, Yang WANG2, Xiao-kuan YANG3

1
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing,
China. Tel: (8610) 6739-2394; Email: zhangwanchao2008@emails.bjut.edu.cn
2
Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing,
China. Tel: (8610) 6739-2394; Email: wangyang8265@emails.bjut.edu.cn
3
Professor, Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology,
Beijing, China. Tel: (8610) 6739-1678; Fax: (8610) 6739-2991; Email:
xiaokuan@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
This paper attempts to explore the potential capacity of right turn movement
when there are conflicts between right turn vehicles, pedestrians, and bicycles at
signalized intersections. In order to take this impact into account in the capacity
estimation, it is necessary to assume that all pedestrians and bicycles observe the
traffic regulation, which means pedestrians cross intersections only when the
pedestrian’s signal indication is on. The objective of this study is to quantitatively
analyze pedestrians’ and bicycles’ impacts on the capacity of right-turn vehicle at
signalized intersections. New concepts of “pedestrian group” and “equivalent factor
of bicycle versus pedestrian (PBF)”were introduced in this paper. The PBF was
computed and its value is 1.7. With these concepts, a pedestrian-grouping based
model was developed to estimate the potential capacity of right turn movement under
green indication. The model was calibrated using the collected data from eight
signalized intersections of Beijing and proved robust after hypothetic test.

INTRODUCTION
The traffic conditions of intersections in China’s cities are relatively
complicated when compared to other countries. There are heavy conflicts among
bicycle, pedestrian traffic, and vehicular traffic at intersections. Based on traffic
regulations, right turn movements can make a turn during any signal indications for
the majority of signalized intersections. The right turn vehicles will conflict with
pedestrians and bicycles at intersections during green indication. At this time
pedestrians and bicycles have the great impact on the right turn capacity at signalized
intersection. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM, 2000) estimates an adjustment
of saturation flow rate of right turn movement during different phase and lane uses,
but it does not provide the approaches to estimate the effect of pedestrian and bicycle.
In China, many approaches also do not estimate the effect; therefore, the motivation
behind conducting this study is to model the potential capacity of right turn
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1191
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movement under the presence of pedestrian and bicycle flow at signalized

intersections. New concepts of “pedestrian group” and “equivalent factor of bicycle
versus pedestrian (PBF)”were introduced in this paper. With these concepts, a
pedestrian-grouping based model was developed to estimate the potential capacity of
right turn movement under green indication. These models can, to some extent,
represent the real state of signalized intersections of China. This model can also help
traffic engineers conduct capacity observations under mixed traffic conditions. In
addition, the result of this study provides useful information for traffic management
at signalized intersections.
The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM, 2000) estimates an adjustment of
saturation flow rate of right turn movement during different phase styles and lane
uses, but it does not provide the approaches to estimate the effect of bicycles. The
Manual simply estimates the capacity of an exclusive right turn lane to be 85% of the
capacity of a through-lane during its green phase, with no estimation of right turns
made during red phases.
Dr. Timothy Oketch (Timothy, 2003) has studied modeled performance
characteristics of heterogeneous traffic streams containing non-motorized vehicles
such as bicycles. Some of his research findings including length, width,
acceleration, deceleration, max speed, capacity, saturation flow, etc, are utilized in
this study. However, the trend is that the degree to which each vehicle type affects
the various performance parameters varies greatly depending on the vehicle type and
the measure of performance considered. It follows, therefore, that the assignment of
general equivalency factors (or passenger car unit values) for nonstandard vehicles
applicable in all circumstances may not always yield reliable results. Rather, where
such values must be used, it would be more appropriate to specify them for each
performance measure separately.
AI Shu-bo (AI, 2009) explored the potential capacity of dual-right- lanes at
signalized intersections under mixed traffic conditions.
D. Patrick Allen et al. (Allen, 1998) have done a quantitative study of the
impact of bicycle traffic on the capacity of an intersection. The effect of bicycle and
pedestrians on capacity of the right turn movement is estimated by calculating time
occupied rate in the conflict area in the study. Besides, this study provides specific
adjustment factors used to modify saturation flow rate of right turn movement due to
the presence of bicycles flow.
Winai Raksuntorn and Sarosh I. Khan (Raksuntorn, 2003) conducted a
research on capacity-related parameters of bicycles at signalized intersections. Some
of their findings are very useful in that the time headway between bicycles on an 8-ft
wide bicycle lane is constant after the fifth bicycle in queue crosses the stop line. The
saturation headway of bicycles is measured to be 0.80 second. This suggests a
maximum flow rate of 4,500 bicycles per hour of green per 8-ft (2.4 m) wide bicycle
lane.
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Peter van der Waerden et al. (Warerden, 2004) investigated the perception of
bicycle riders with five different street characteristics based on the on-street
questionnaire. It is concluded that cyclist’s best observe the pavement of roads by
following bicycle paths and lanes along roads. They are not well aware of on-street
parking facilities, bus lanes, and the priority signs at crossings. This conclusion is
consistent with the results we surveyed in Beijing in 2005.
The study conducted by Bruce W. Landis et al. (Landis, 2004) reveals that
roadway traffic volume, total width of the outside through lane, and the intersection
(cross street) crossing distance are primary factors in the intersection LOS for bicycle
through movements.
The objective of this study is to model the potential capacity of right turn
movement under the presence of through pedestrian and bicycle flow at signalized
intersections. To reach this objective, it is necessary to find out the equivalent factor
of pedestrian versus bicycle from field observation. The gap acceptance theory is
used to analysis the potential capacity of right-turn movement.
METHODOLOGY
Analysis of characteristics of right-turn movement
At signalized intersections, the right turn vehicles have conflicts with through
pedestrians and bicycles from two directions as shown in Figure 1 during the green
indication. From Figure 1 it can be seen that right turn vehicles have to yield to the
through pedestrian and bicycle traffic based on traffic regulations. As a result the
capacity of right turn movement will definitely decline, accordingly.

Figure 1. Illustration of Conflicts about Right Turn Movement.

Because of traffic signal control, pedestrian and bicycle should wait for
passing at the side walk during the red indication. At this time right turn vehicles
have no conflict with through pedestrians. In this case the maximum number of right
turn vehicles through the intersection can be estimated by equation 1
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3600 t g
n1 = ( ) (1)
T ht
Where
n1 = Number of right turn vehicles through the intersection (veh);
T = Cycle length (s);
tg
=No impact time for right turn movement (s);

ht = Headway of right turn vehicles (s).

During the green indication, the right turn vehicles have conflict with both
bicycles and pedestrians 。 In this case, pedestrians and bicycles arrive at the
intersection in random manner. The right turn vehicles must have to wait for gap to
pass at this time. Pedestrians and bicycles randomly arrive at the intersection during
this period. The right turn vehicles pass through the intersection according to the
gaps of pedestrian and bicycle flow. The gap acceptance theory is then used to
simulate the process of right turn movement traversing through pedestrian and
bicycle flow. This period is also the focus of this paper.
Equivalent factor of pedestrian versus bicycle
According to the hindrance caused by bicycle and pedestrian respectively,
equivalent factor of bicycle versus pedestrian (PBF) can be produced, it is the ratio of
the influence on right-turn vehicles by per unit bicycle to the influence caused by per
unit pedestrian, computed by Equation 2
per unit bicycle's influence on right turn vehicles
PBF = (2)
per unit pedestrian' s influence on right turn vehicles
With this concept the influence of bicycle can be transformed into the
influence of pedestrian.
Approach of dividing pedestrian group
The pedestrians have their own characteristics when they pass through the
intersection. According to these characteristics we can put pedestrians into groups.
Taking pedestrian group as a study object, we can use the gap acceptance model to
estimate the potential quantity of the right turn vehicles.
Movement of pedestrian on crosswalk shows some obvious common features.
These features are elaborated in the Highway Capacity Manual. The common
features are as follows:
1) Pedestrian often travel together, and they often arrive at the intersection in
groups.
2) To avoid interference when two pedestrians pass each other, each should have
about 2.5ft of walkway width.
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3) Most of pedestrian has the idea that the right turn vehicles should yield to the
through pedestrian traffic
Based on these feature the “pedestrian group” concept is proposed in this study
to explore the potential capacity of right turn movement under the influence of
pedestrian. Pedestrian group is defined a group of pedestrian who possesses same
location and the keeps same speed.
Pedestrians can be divided into groups based on the time-distance between
two adjacent people. According to the distribution of time-headway between
pedestrians, the probability P(H≥ t)can be calculated. H is the time-headway between
two adjacent pedestrians. When the volume of pedestrian is Q, the number of
pedestrian group can be calculated by equation (3)
G P = QP( H ≥ t ) + 1 (3)

Where
Gp =Number of pedestrian groups;
Q = Volume of pedestrian;
P= Probability of time-distance bigger than t;
t can be computed by Equation(4)
L
t= (4)
V
Where:
L=Width of passenger car;
V= Average speed of pedestrian, 1.2m/s;
We can compute the number of pedestrian groups once we know the distribution
of pedestrian arrival time.
Determination of critical gap and follow-up time
Critical gap is defined as the minimum time, in seconds, between pedestrian
groups, in which a right turn automobile can make a maneuver. The follow-up time is
defined as the time between the departure of one right turn vehicle and that of the
next one using the same gap under a condition of continuous queuing in seconds.
The critical gaps and follow-up times for right turn vehicles traversing
pedestrian flow were observed from video tapes. A specially designed computer
program was developed and only four keys on the keyboard were needed for
recording gap data. The time interval set in computer program is 0.5 second, which
means that the biggest possible internal error of keying is less than 0.5 second. The
Logit model is applied in this study to get the average values of the critical gaps and
follow-up times.
DATA COLLECTION
In order to build the model, it is necessary to collect field data. At the
neighborhood of the intersection find a spot (overpass or high-rise building nearby)
to allow surveyor to install video camera. From the video we can find the saturation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1195
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state of right-turn vehicles. Record the headway of right-turn platoon at the position
of 10 meters before the intersection. Validated, this headway can be regarded as the
right-turn headway in base condition. Record the actual vehicle’s number of
right-turn movement and record the time of platoon though the intersection. The
vehicle’s number of right-turn movement under base condition can be computed by
Equation 5.
TP
N = (5)
hr
Where
N= Vehicle’s number of right-turn movement under base condition;
TP= Time of right-turn platoon though the intersection;
hr= Right-turn headway in base condition.
The vehicle’s number of right-turn movement under base condition subtracts
the number of right-turn vehicles under influence is the reduction of right-turn
vehicle because of the influence of pedestrians and bicycles. The correlative data are
as follows:
Table 1. Volume Data Obtained from Selected Intersections.
TP Actual right-turn Reduction of
hr (s) TP (s) N =
NO. hr vehicle’s number right-turn vehicles
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]=[3]-[4]
1 1.69 30 17.8 7 10.8
2 3.16 38 12 10 2.0
3 2.15 41 19.1 11 8.1
…… …… …… …… …… ……
58 2.16 60 27.8 22 5.8
59 2.71 16 7.58 6 1.6
60 2.58 36 14 7 7.0

From the video record the number of pedestrians and bicycles that cause
influence on the right-turn movement. The correlative data as follows:
Based on the data in the Table 2, regression analysis can then be implemented
to find the relationship among three variables. The result of regression by SPSS as
follows:
=y 0.249 x1 + 0.424 x2 (6)

Where:
y= Reduction of right-turn vehicles;
x1= Number of pedestrians impact the right-turn;
x2= Number of bicycles impact the right-turn;.
The reduction of right-turn vehicles can be calculated by Equation (6).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1196
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Table 2. Regression Data of Influence.

Reduction of right-turn Number of bicycles impact the
Number of pedestrians impact
Sample vehicles, right-turn,
the right-turn, x1
y x2
1 10.8 6 8
2 2.0 8 10
3 8.1 8 10
…… …… …… ……
59 1.6 2 4
60 7.0 10 15

From the Table 3 it can be find that adjusted R square is 0.530, it indicates
that the model, to some extent, can descriptive the relationship of three variables.
Table 3. Model Goodness of Fit Test.
Adjusted R Std. Error of the
Model R R Square
Square Estimate
1 0.739 0.546 0.530 2.78952

The result of variance analysis in Table 4 indicates that the model has
statistical significance. It can be used to describe the relationship of three variables.
Table 4. Significance Test of Model.
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

Regression 533.260 2 266.630 34.265 0.000

Residual 443.540 57 7.781
Total 976.800 59

Base on the Equation (2) and Equation (6) the PBF was computed and its
value as follows:
0.424
PBF = = 1.7
0.249
Critical gap and follow-up time
The ACCESS based computer program was developed to help collect critical
gap, and follow-up time for right turn movement. In this study Logit model was
applied to obtain the values of critical gap and follow-up time. The results of
estimation for critical gap and follow-up time as follows: Critical gap is 4.8 (s);
Follow-up time is 3.3 (s)
MODEL BUILD- UP
Before developing potential capacity model for right turn movement, it is
necessary to make assumptions. First, it is assumed that through bicycle flow, and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1197
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pedestrian flow rank higher than the flow right turn vehicular movement during the
green indication. Second, the arrival of the pedestrian and the bicycle agrees with
Poisson distribution, resulting in headway of pedestrian group agreeable to the
exponential distribution.
By means of grouping of pedestrians, Pedestrian groups become the object of
our study. Suppose the arrival number of pedestrians of one hour is Q1, the arrival
number of bicycles of one hour is Q2, the potential capacity of right-turn lane can be
calculate by equation (7)
(Q1 + β Q2 )TV P( H ≥ t )
+1
3600 t g
=c ( )+ T
− λt f
e − λ tc (7)
T ht 1− e
Where:
T = Cycle length (s);

tg
= No impact time of right turn vehicles (s);

ht =Headway of through stop-line of right turn vehicles (s);

tf = Follow-up time of right turn vehicle in second (s);

tc= Critical gap for right turn vehicle in second (s);
Q1= Number of pedestrians of one hour (veh);
Q2= Number of bicycles of one hour (veh);
β= Equivalent factor of pedestrian versus bicycle (PBF);
TV=Green time (s);
H = Time-headway(s).
To substantiate the validity of the model, K-S test was conducted to examine
if the assumption that the arrival of bicycle and pedestrian is in accord with Poisson
distribution so it can be accepted. The confidence level is 95% and one of the eight
intersections was taken to conduct the testing. The data of pedestrian and bicycle
arrival is shown in Table 5, with counting interval being 1 min.
Table 5. Data of Pedestrian and Bicycle Arrival Frequency.
Pedestrian 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Arrive number
Frequency 1 3 8 10 13 18 10 11 5 6 4 4 3 1 1 0

Bicycle arrive 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
number
Frequency 0 0 1 3 5 15 32 34 42 32 30 20 11 7 5 2
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1198
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The testing result by SPSS is shown in Table 6, indicating the assumption is

accepted. Thus, the model of potential capacity for right turn movement is valid.
Table 6. K-S Test for Arrival distribution at JinSong Intersection.
Test parameter Frequency
N(Pedestrian) 98
Poisson Parameter Mean(pedestrian) 6.19
Pedestrian Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) P=0.824
N (Bicycle) 239
Mean(bicycle) 8.41
Bicycle Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) P=0.389

From the outputs it is known that the value of P=0.824>0.05 for this 2-tailed
testing, which demonstrates that the pedestrian arrival obeys the Poisson distribution
at this intersection. The P value of bicycle arrival is 0.389>0.05, it demonstrates that
the bicycle arrival is also in accord with Poisson distribution. The result of K-S test
for arrival of bicycle and pedestrian at eight studied intersections is shown in Table 7.
The result indicates that the arrivals of bicycle and pedestrian at these eight
intersections all agree with Poisson distribution.
Table 7. K-S Test for Arrival of Bicycle Group at Eight Studied Intersections.
P value of P value of Accepted or Rejected
No. Name
pedestrian arrival bicycle arrival (α=0.05)

1 JinSong Intersection 0.824 0.389 Accepted

GuangQu Men
2 0.754 0.526 Accepted
out Intersection
JianGuo Men
3 0.638 0.610 Accepted
out Intersection
JianGuo Men
4 0.564 0.785 Accepted
in Intersection
ChangAn
5 0.432 0.356 Accepted
Intersection
6 XingFu Intersection 0.369 0.562 Accepted
GuangQu Men
7 0.863 0.562 Accepted
in Intersection
ZhuShiKou
8 0.796 0.469 Accepted
Intersection

Based on the knowledge of probability theory, if A and B both obey the

Poisson distribution, it is know that A+B is also in accord with the Poisson
distribution. In the same theory, if the pedestrian arrival (Q1) and bicycle arrival (Q2)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1199
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both obey the Poisson distribution, the following conclusions can be drawn:
Q1 ~ P (λ1 ) ; Q2 ~ P (λ 2 )

Q1 + βQ2 ~ P(λ1 + βλ 2 )

Β is equivalent factor of bicycle versus pedestrian (PBF). Thus, the model of

potential capacity for right turn movement is valid.
CONCLUSION AND FURTHER STUDY
It is concluded from this study that pedestrian and bicycle traffic at signalized
intersections have a big impact on the capacity of right turn movement. To model the
relationship among bicycle, pedestrian and potential capacity of right turn movement
will help traffic engineers and management better understand the performances under
the mixed traffic conditions at intersections. The concepts of pedestrian group and
equivalent factors of bicycle versus pedestrian were proposed in this paper to
facilitate building up of the model. These concepts play a key role in the model
building because the movement of pedestrian traffic is different from movement of
automobiles.
This is a preliminary study for the capacity analysis of vehicular traffic under
the presence of pedestrian and bicycle. The follow up study will be carried out to
outreach all details of the impact of mixed traffic on the performances of
intersections. When the arrival distribution of bicycle and pedestrian is not in accord
with Poisson, the model in this paper cannot be used. The mutual impacts from both
pedestrian and bicycle in complex traffic condition at signalized intersections will be
the focus in the further study in order to fully and completely reflect the China’s
characteristics of traffic moving at intersections.
REFERENCES
AI, S. B., and Yang, X. K. (2009). “Capacity of Dual-right- turn lanes at signalized
intersections under mixed traffic conditions.” Journal of Southwest Jiaotong
University(English Edition), pp.229-239.
Allen, D. P. (1998). “Effect of Bicycles on capacity of signalized intersections”
Transportation Research Board 77th Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C.,
CD-ROM.
Landis, B. W., Guttenplan, M., and Crider, L. B. (2003). “Intersection level of
service: bicycle through movement” Transportation Research Board 82nd
Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., CD-ROM.
Oketch, T. (2003). “Modeled performance characteristics of heterogeneous traffic
streams containing non-motorized vehicles.” Transportation Research
Board 82nd Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., CD-ROM.
Raksuntorn, W., and Khan, S. I. (2003). “Saturation Flow rate, start-up lost time, and
capacity of signalized intersections for bicycles.” Transportation Research
Board 82nd Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., CD-ROM.
Transportation Research Board. (2000). Highway Capacity Manual. National
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1200
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Research Council. Washington, D.C.

Waerden P., Borgers, A., and Timmermans, H. (2004). “Cyclists’ perception and
evaluation of street characteristics.” Transportation Research Board 83rd
Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., CD-ROM.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1201
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Aircraft’s Assignment on multi-Runway Airport based on PSO

Jie-ning WANG1, Zhi-juan YUAN1, Jian-kang DONG1, Yong-xin LIU1

1
Air Traffic Management Research Base, Civil Aviation University of China, P.O.
Box 14, Tianjin, 300300, China; PH 13672046650 and 13920370177; FAX
86-22-24092433; email: yzj_03@163.com

ABSTRACT
As the air traffic flow grows, traffic congestion occurs more frequently in
airport terminal areas. One way to solve the problem is to build more runways to
extend the airport capacity, but it is too expensive. The alternative is to optimize the
queue of aircrafts during their departures or arrivals which could reduce total delay
and increase airport capacity. In this paper, a novel mathematical model is proposed
that depicts a sorting queue of aircrafts operating on multiple runway airports.
Furthermore, the particle-swarm-optimization (PSO) method is used to achieve the
optimal queuing result. The experimental results show that one could get more
reasonable sorting queues compared to First-Come-First-Serve (FCFS) models.
INTRODUCTION
Along with the rapid increasing of air traffic flows, traffic congestion occurs
more frequently in the airspace, especially in the airport terminal area. According to
the statistics made by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in 2002, the total
delay of 33 airports in the USA is 20,000 hours (Lu et al., 2006). Traffic congestion
occurs when the capacity of an airport runway or an air traffic control sector becomes
saturated during a specific time span, and the delay will be increased (Lu et al., 2006;
Gilbo, 1997). In the TRACON area, the air traffic bottleneck is the runways. One
way to extend the capacity is to build more runways, but it is too expensive (Xu al.,
2004). Accordingly, how to optimize the sorting queue of departing or arriving
aircrafts is the key point to reduce delays. Researchers both domestics and abroad
have studied some optimal algorithms to solve the queuing problem for the single
runway such as the Time Advanced method ( Erzberger et al.,1989), Constrained
Position Shift method (Neuman et al., 1990) and Fuzzy Recognition
method( Neuman et al., 1991) etc.
For the aircraft queuing problem operating on multiple runways, many
scholars have also done research by using optimal algorithms such as Genetic
algorithm (Xu et al., 2004), Satisfaction Criteria (Lu et al., 2006; Gilbo, 1997). These
works focused on how to queue the arrival aircrafts. In this paper, we considered
both arrival and departure aircrafts running on multiple runways. Based on the
analysis of their running constrains and time space allocation requirements, we
propose a novel mathematical model to depict the sorting queue of aircrafts operating
on multiple runway airports. Furthermore we attempt to use the PSO method to get
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the optimal queuing result.

DESCRIPTION OF THE TRAFFIC FLOW IN AIRPORT TERMINAL AREA
The arrival aircrafts can enter the terminal area through several Fixes. All
approaching aircrafts are arranged in a queue at the Final Approach Fix (FAF)
according to the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA). And the airspace of the terminal
area is divided into three parts: two scheduling limits (Xu et al., 2004), the beginning
and termination scheduling boundaries. The beginning scheduling limit is a space
boundary, which is the border of each aircraft into the control zone. When a plane
crosses, the sorting algorithm receives the set of parameters to optimize. The
termination scheduling boundary is also called a freezing boundary, which is decided
by the specific landing time. Once an aircraft crosses, its landing time won’t change
any more. The space between two boundaries is called the approach sort zone.
The departure aircraft enter the ground sorting area as soon as taxiing out,
and the sorting algorithm receives the set of parameters to optimize. The termination
scheduling boundary is the moment when the aircraft starts to take-off roll. The
major goal of civil aviation is security and economy. Because the aircrafts wait on
the ground unboundedly have no danger and fuel consumption, so compared with the
departure aircrafts, the arrival ones have a higher priority.
THE DESCRIPTION OF THE SIMULATION MODEL
Given a certain time frame T and the demand of both arrival and departure
aircrafts, known the different aircrafts’ wake interval on each runway, the model’s
objective is then to minimize the total delay of both arrival and departure aircrafts
when the arrival aircrafts have a higher priority, thus extending the airport’s capacity.
The Description of the Problem

{ }
There are n1 arrival aircrafts A1 , A2 , A3 , , An1 and their ETA on each runway.

{ }
At the same time, there are n2 departure aircrafts D1 , D2 , D3 , , Dn2 and their

Estimated Time of Departure (ETD). Both arrival and departure aircrafts are assigned
to the m parallel runways and satisfy the Wake Turbulence Separation Minima.
Each runway can be used to take off and land independently, and do not interfere
with each other. The goals are minimizing the total delays of all aircrafts,
maximizing the economic benefits and extending the airport’s capacity.
According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
requirements, airplanes are divided into three types according to the Wake
Turbulence Separation Minima, Heavy (H), Medium (M), Light (L). Different types
of aircraft’s Turbulence intervals, which are indicated as a 3 × 3 time matrix (Xu al.,
2004) (min) as follows, are transformed from the Wake Turbulence Separation
Minima:
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1.0 1.5 2.0 

SEP = 1.0 1.5 1.5  （1）
1.0 1.0 1.0 
In the matrix, rows represent the front plane, while columns represent the rear
plane, aircraft types represented by rows and columns are followed by H, M and L.
Only when two planes on the same runway, their relative order is important. The
Scheduling Time of Arrival (STA) and the Scheduling Time of Departure (STD)
shouldn’t be earlier than ETA and ETD. After sorting, the interval must satisfy the
Wake Turbulence Separation Minima, = {
which is STki max ETki , STki + SEPki−1,i . In }
the Expression, ST and ET respectively represent STA and ETA for the arrival
aircrafts and represent STD and ETD for the departure ones, SEPki−1,i represents the

Wake Turbulence interval between aircraft i and aircraft i − 1 on the runway k .

Modeling
After sorting, the planes’ interval on the same runway should satisfy the Wake
Turbulence Interval Minima.
1 the aircraft i use runway k
yki = 
0 otherwise

1 the plane j in the rear of aircraft i on runway k

xki , j = 
0 otherwise
K  n1 n1 + n 2

min Z = ∑  0.4 × ∑ d k j + 0.6 × ∑ d k j  （2）
k =1  j =1 j = n1 +1 
K
∑ yk i = 1
 k =1
n1 + n 2
 ∑ xk i , j = yk j
 i =1
 n +n i, j = 1,2,……, n1 + n2 ∀k k = 1,……, K （3）
1 2
 ∑ ki , j
x = y ki
 j =1
S = max{E , S + SEP × x }
 kj kj ki ki , j ki , j

{ }
d k j = S k j − min E1 j , E2 j ,……, Ek j




Constraint condition (3) restricts each aircraft to be assigned only to one
runway. At the same time, the adjacent aircrafts on the same runway should meet the
Wake Turbulence Interval Minima. Optimization is to minimize the total delay of all
aircrafts while satisfying the constraint condition (3).
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THE PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION

The Principle of Particle Swarm Optimization
Kennedy et al. (1995) proposed the principle of particle swarm optimization,
which simulated the flying flock feeding behavior through a collective collaboration
to enable flock’s optimization. In the PSO system, each feasible solution is called
"Particle". Multi-particle are coexisted and co-optimized. The optimal solution is
obtained by sending each particle "Fly" to a better location in the solution domain
according to its own experience and the group’s best experience.
The PSO algorithm’s parsing is described as follows (Eberhart et al., 2001):
Set the searching space in D-dimensional and the total particle number as n.
The position of particle i is expressed as X i = ( xi1 , xi 2 , , xiD ) . The optimal location

of particle i in its "Fly" history is expressed as Pi = ( pi1 , pi 2 , , piD ) . The particle g’s

optimal location pg in its history is the optimal location of all particles. The speed of
particle i is expressed as Vi = ( vi1 , vi 2 , , viD ) . The location and speed of each particle

change in the following formulas:

vid (t + 1) =
w ⋅ vid (t ) + c1 ⋅ rand () ⋅ [ pid (t ) − xid (t )] + c2 ⋅ rand () ⋅ [ pgd (t ) − xid (t )] （4）

xid (t + 1)
= xid (t ) + vid (t + 1) 1 ≤ i ≤ n 1≤ d ≤ D （5）

In the formulas, c1 and c2 are the positive constant, called as the acceleration

factors. Rand () chooses the random number from [0,1], and w is called as the inertia
factor. The location and velocity range of the dimensional d(1<d<D) are
[− X max d , X max d ] and [−Vmax d , Vmax d ] . The location and velocity over boundaries

choose the boundary value in the iteration.

The particle swarm’s initial position and velocity generate randomly, and then
iterate by the formula (4) and (5) until finding a satisfactory solution. Each particle
adjusts its velocity and position by its own history optimal value Pi and group’s
optimal value Pg. PSO algorithm’s basic flowchart (Wu et al., 2007) is shown in
Figure 1.
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Initialize particle swarm

Calculate the fitness of the all particles

Choose the particle’s optimal location Pi in its history

Choose the swarm’s optimal location Pg

Update status according to location and

speed’s calculation on the formulas

satisfy the termination condition NO

YES

The end, put out the result

Figure 1. The flowchart of PSO Figure 2. PSO running results in MATLAB.

Recent years’ research and practice show that the PSO algorithm has the
advantages of being fast, high quality value and good robustness on optimization for
multi-peak problems on multi-dimensional space and optimization on dynamic
object.
Construction Suitable Particle Expression
Construct a 2×n1+n2dimensional vector corresponding to n1+n2 flights
scheduling problem, each flight has two-dimension. The runway number is k, and the
flight order on the runway is r. Expression for each particle’s corresponding vector X
is divided into two n1+n2 dimensional vectors: Xv and Xr (flights’ operating order on
the runway). As shown in Table 1.
Table 1. An example of a particle expression.
Flight No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Xv 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 3 1 3
Xr 3 3 4 2 1 3 1 4 2 1 4 2
Then the solution corresponding to the particle is,
TWY 1: 7→4→1→11
TWY 2: 5→9→2→3
TWY 3: 10→12→6→8
The advantage of this expression is that each aircraft can and can only be
assigned to one runway. The representation has higher dimensions, but the PSO
algorithm has good features on multi-dimensional optimization problem, so the
increase in the dimensions does not increase the computing complexity, which can be
seen in the test results.
Algorithm Process
Aircraft sorting on multi-runway airport becomes the integer scheduling
problem according to the particle expression. The process of the PSO algorithm
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should make some appropriate changes (Li et al., 2004). Concrete realization steps
are as follows:
Step 1: Initialize particle swarm
1) The particle swarm is divided into 2-2 overlapping subgroups.
2) Each dimension of the position vector Xv randomly choose integer from
1～ K (runway number), each dimension Xr choose the random real number from
1～n1+n2 (the aircraft number to use the runway).
3) Each dimension of velocity vector Vv randomly choose the integer between
–(K-1) and (K-1), and each dimension of Vr randomly choose the real number
between − ( n1 + n2 − 1) and ( n1 + n2 − 1) .

4) Evaluate all particles with the evaluation function Eval .

5) Put the initial evaluation as an individual history optimal solution Pi and

the group’s optimal solution Pg.

Step 2: loop the following steps until satisfy the terminal condition
1) Calculate V and X separately with formula (4) and (5), Xv rounded up while
V and X are beyond the boundaries by the boundary value.
2) Evaluate all particles with the evaluation function Eval .
3) If a particle’s the current evaluation value is better than its historical
optimal value, noting the current assessment value as the best individual optimal
assessment value and noting the current location as the optimal position Pi .

4) If the optimal solution is better than its history, update the group’s optimal
solution Pg.
In which, the evaluation function Eval complete the following tasks.
1) The Xr value of small to large array re-standardizes of an integer sequence
in order to calculate the delay time and following-up iteration. An example is shown
in Table 2.
Table 2. The results of a particle’s certain iteration.
Flight No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Xv 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 3 1 3
Xr 5 3.2 4.7 2.1 1.2 3.7 0.8 4.5 2.1 1.8 2.4 3.2
In the table, the flights with the number of(1,4,7,11)use runway 1, the
corresponding Xr of these flights are(5,2.1,0.8,2.4). A function of Eval is to reset
the Xr’s value from small to large. The No.7 flight’s Xr 0.8 is the minimum and
updates to 1, and the No.4 flight’s Xr 0.8 is the second smallest and updates to 2, and
so on. Xr, which is sequenced from small to large re-standardized integer, is
（4,3,4,2,1,3,1,4,2,1,3,2）according to this method.
2) Calculate the total delay time Z of the program, which is represented by the
particle. The particle, which does not satisfy the constraints, is an unfeasible solution,
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so set its assessment value as an inaccessible value.

Operating Parameters
Particle number m =40, w =0.729, c1=c2=1.49445, the maximum number of
iterations is 200.
SIMULATION AND RESULTS
The Simulation Case
In this paper, we give an example with 10 arrival aircrafts, six departure
aircrafts, three parallel runways and the runway can be used to take off and land
independently. Aircraft codes are expressed as
C = ( HA0, MA1, HA2, HA3, LA4, HA5, MA6, LA7,
. The aircraft types are expressed
HA8, LA9, HD0, HD1, MA2, MD3, LD 4, HD5)

as T = [1, 2,1,1,3,1, 2,3,1,1, 2, 2,3,1] . Aircraft codes and types don’t change in the entire

operation.
In the aircrafts’ running codes, the first letter expresses the aircraft’s type, and
the second letter illustrates arrival aircrafts or departure ones, and the third part is the
flight number. The calculation E has already included aircraft performance and
flight mode constraints, and satisfies the model constraints (3).
The objective is to minimize the total delay, and the arrival aircrafts have a
higher priority than the departure ones, so this paper gives two different coefficients
to reflect the relationship. The objective function is defined as,
 K 10 16 
∑
min=
Z  0.4 × ∑ d kj + 0.6 × ∑ dk j  （6）
= 
k 1= j 1 =j 11 
The corresponding E is expressed as a 3 × 16 time Matrix, with each row
representing the time of aircrafts reaching some runways.
11 15 6 6 9 7 15 6 6 9 12 8 9 7 18 10
E = 10 17 7 7 12 6 17 7 7 12 6 12 13 15 17 18
 9 10 8 9 8 11 13 10 8 7 10 12 11 12 16 16
In MATLAB 7.0, each dimension of Xv randomly chooses the integer from 1～
3, and defines a three-dimensional vector Y, which is used to record the number of
aircraft on each runway. Each dimension of Xr chooses the random real number
according to the function Eval and the vector Y , thus initializing the particle swarm.
A simulation program is compiled in the MATLAB 7.0 on the basis of
implementation of the algorithm process described earlier.
Simulation Results
After 200 iterations, the PSO algorithm’s optimization was compared with the
simulation result using FCFS. Simulating the specific example of the PSO algorithm,
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the simulation results in MATLAB 7.0 according to the algorithm implementation

are shown in Figures 2. The corresponding results of analyzing particle expression
are as the Table 3.
Table 3. Particle expression corresponding with Figure 2.
Flight No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Xv 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 3 1
Xr 3 4 2 3 2 1 5 1 4 1 5 5 3 2 6 4
The results, which assign multi-runway and sort planes according to E and
the principle of FCFS, are shown in Figure 2. Generally, after 30 ~ 40 iterations, the
target function with the PSO algorithm tends to a balance condition, and a
satisfactory optimal result is obtained as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 2. Simulation result with FCFS.

Figure 3. Optimal result with the PSO algorithm.

Figure 3 shows the simulation result using FCFS method, and Figure 4 shows
optimal result with the PSO algorithm’s, which are calculated from the simulation
with MATLAB and analyze simulation according to the particle expressions. Figure
3 and Figure 4 show that the total delay time has reduced from 22.5 time units with
FCFS to 13.5 time units with the PSO algorithm. The total delay time reduces about
40%. The objective value is reduced to 6.8 from 10.5, and the value decreases about
35.2% for the runway allocation and aircraft queuing.
The following experimental results are obtained: 1. The sort result using the
PSO algorithm is significantly better than the result with the FCFS method; 2. The
sort result using the PSO algorithm tends to form aircraft clusters, which is
composed of the same type of aircrafts; 3. If time conflicts, the arrival aircrafts are
superior to the departure ones.
CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, based on the analysis of their running constrains and time space
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allocation requirements, a novel mathematical model was proposed that depicts the
sorting queue of aircrafts departing or arriving at airports of multiple runways. Using
the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method, we obtained the optimal queuing
results. The algorithm was implemented on the MATLAB platform. Through
simulation, we found that: compared to the FCFS method, the PSO algorithm can get
more reasonable and efficient optimizing queuing results. The results showed that the
total delay time reduced by about 40% and the objective value decreased by 35.2%
for the runway allocation and aircraft queuing. Therefore, the PSO optimizing
algorithm would have great potential values to solve departing and arriving
scheduling problems running on multiple runway airports.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
under Grant No. 60832011; the Doctor Starting Fund of Civil Aviation University of
China under Grant No. 06QD07S.
REFERENCE
Eberhart, R.C, and Shi, Y. (2001). “Particle Swarm Optimization: Developments,
Applications and Resources.” Proc. Congress on Evolutionary Computation,
2001. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE Press. 81-86.
Erzberger, H, and Nedell W. (1989). “Design of automated system for management
of arrival traffic.” NASA TM 102795.
Gilbo, E.P. (1997). “Optimizing airport capacity utilization in air traffic flow
management subject to constraints at arrival and departure fixes.” IEEE
Transactions on Control Systems Technology, 5(5), 490-503.
Kennedy, J. and Eberhart, R. C. (1995). “Particle swarm optimization.” Proc. IEEE
International Conference on Neural Networks. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE
Service Center.1942-1948.
Li, N., Zou, T., Sun D. (2004). “Particle swarm optimization for vehicle routing
problem.” Journal of Systems Engineering, 6(19), 576-600.
Lu, X., Chen, X. and Zhu, J.F. (2006). “Multi-Objective Optimization Model Based
on Satisfactory Criterion for Capacity Utilization and Flow Allocation of
Airport Terminal Area.” Information and Control, 3(37), 377-381.
Neuman, F, and Erzberger, H. (1990).” Analysis of sequencing and scheduling
methods for arrival traffic.” NASA TM 102795.
Neuman, F, and Erzberger, H. (1991). “Analysis of delay reducing and fuel saving
sequencing and spacing algorithms for arrival traffic.” NASA TM 103880.
Wu, B., Wang, W. and Zhao, Y.W. (2007). “Particle Swarm Optimization for
Vehicle Routing Problem and Its Application.” Dissertation Submitted to
Zhejiang University of Technology for the Degree of PH.D.
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Locations of Bus Stops at the Upstream of Signalized Intersection Based on the

Model of Efficiency

Xue-wu CHEN1, Xian-yao HOU2, and Jia-jun SHEN3

1
School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210018, China P. R.; PH
(86)25-83795643; email: chenxuewu@seu.edu.cn
2
School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210018, China P. R.; PH
(86)139-1331-9201; email: cnfeiyang@gmail.com
3
College of Civil Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009,
China P. R.; PH (86)150-6284-0003; email: jjshen@yzu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
The bus stop has an impact on the signalized intersection’s traffic flow when
it is set up at the upstream of an intersection. Based on the assumption and the
analysis of the practical situation, a model of calculating the efficiency of the lane at
the upstream of the intersection (which imitates the work theory in physics) is given.
This model is a tool which can be used to evaluate the signalized intersection
upstream traffic flow quantitatively and intuitively. It gives a method to set the bus
stop at the upstream of an intersection by the analysis of the relation between the
length from the bus stop to the stop line, as well as the efficiency of the lane at the
signalized intersection upstream influenced by the bus stop. The result shows that
this model can calculate the efficiency and gives a better location of the bus stop.

INTRODUCTION
The bus stop is one of the most basic facilities of public transportation,
commonly set at almost any urban road which buses run on. Taking up only a part of
the road, it not only affects the bus speed and the capacity of road, but also other
vehicles. Especially in rush hour traffic, bus stop is often a bottleneck of the road
when a bus stops, resulting in traffic jams (Wang, 2002).
It was shown that setting up the bus stop near the intersection is better than
in the mid-block (Ge, 2004). It was found that it makes the intersection’s traffic
operation more complex with the bus stop located near the intersection, and the
influences on the signalized intersection when the bus stop is located upstream of
the intersection was shown (Wang, 2003). According to the objective of minimizing
the total delay of bus passengers, Yang et al. tried to adjust the timing plan to
determine the location of the bus stop that could minimize the bus’s green lost time
(Yang, 2007), but it did not consider the change of the intersection efficiency when
the bus stop is set up upstream. Setting up a bus stop upstream of the intersection
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may increase the lane’s delay, and influence the safety (Ge, 2006; Ge, 2008). In this
paper, we research the location of the bus stop upstream of the signalized
intersection by investigating the efficiency of the traffic operation upstream of the
intersection, which is influenced by the bus stop.
THE DELAY MODEL
The basic assumptions
1) All the vehicles obey traffic rules, and any vehicle’s direction should be
consistent with the lane distribution, none of them is allowed to change lanes. Right
turn and left turn are made through shared lanes with through and there is no
protected phase for turning movements.
2) The average speed of the bus entry into the intersection is the same as that
of exiting from the intersection.
3) Because the speed of the queuing vehicles’ staring is very fast when the
signal turns green, we do not consider the transition time of the startingso as to
simplify the analysis. That is to say, all the queuing vehicles start at the same time
when the signal turns green.
4) Considering the practical situation in China, the lane next to the bus stop
is the through-left-right lane or the through-right lane. The delay of the vehicles in
this lane is also influenced by bus stopping in the next lane due to the signal.
The description of the model parameter
The saturation flow rate of the lane next to the bus stop is S, pcu/h. The
arrival rate is Q, pcu/h. The signal cycle is C, s. The effective red time is r, s. In one
signal cycle, the initial time is set when the signal turns red, and t b ,s is the arrival
time of the bus, the stopping time is t S , s, and the bus arrival rate is f, veh/h.
The length between the bus stop and the stop line is L, m. The average space
headway of the queuing vehicles is hS , m. The vehicle storage capacity between the
L
bus stop and the stop line is N L , veh and N L  . On the red phase, Q is the
hS
average arrival rate, and the required time of N L vehicles arriving is
NL L
tL   . If the length of the queuing vehicles is beyond L, t L is the time
Q Q  hS
when the stop is blocked. Figure 1 is the sketch map of bus stop located at the
intersection upstream.
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Figure 1. The sketch of bus stop located upstream of the intersection.

The intersection upstream delay model influenced by bus stop
The research shows that according to the bus’s arrival time, there are
different situations of delay in one signal cycle. At different critical point, the
average delay of equivalent car d b caused by setting up the bus stop at the
signalized intersection upstream can be calculated by equation (1)-(3).
1) When 0 ﹤ t L ≤ r  t S ,

0，  0＜ t b  r  t S
 S  t S  ( 2 r  t S) t S  t b
 2  C  (S  Q)  C ，  t L ＜t b  C  t S
1
d b    ( 2r  C )  1  ( 2C  r  )  (1)
2 tb tb
2C
 S r 2

 ，C  t S ＜t b  C
 2C  ( S  Q )

2) When r  t S ﹤ t L ﹤ r,
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0，  0＜t b  r  t S

 S  (t b  t S  r )  (r  t b  t S) (t b  t S  r )  t b
   r  t S ＜t b  t L
，
 2  C  ( S  Q) C
d b   S  t S  ( 2 r  t S)  t S  t b ，
t L ＜t b  C  t S
(2)
 2  C  ( S  Q) C
1 S  r2
  ( 2r  C )   (2C  r  t b )  t b 
1
C  t S ＜t b  C
，
 2 2C 2C  ( S  Q )
3) When t L ≥ r,
0，  0＜t b  r  t S
 S  (t b  t S  r )  (r  t b  t S) (t b  t S  r )  t b
   r  t S ＜t b  r
，
 2  C  (S  Q) C
d b   S  t S  ( 2 r  t S)  t S  t b ，
 r＜t b  C  t S
(3)
 2  C  (S  Q) C
1 S  r2
  ( 2r  C )   (2C  r  t b)  t b 
1
C  t S ＜t b  C
，
 2 2C 2C  ( S  Q )
It is unpractical to calculate the delay caused by bus stopping each time
because of the randomness and uncertainty of the bus arrival time. Over a long
observation period, the bus can arrive at any moment during a signal cycle, so it is
assumed that one bus’s arrival time t b follows uniform distribution in (0, C), and

that is f t b   1 ，0  t b  C , so the expected average delay of equivalent car caused

c
by bus stopping upstream of the signalized intersection is:

d b  0  f (t b )  d b dt b  0 d b dt b
C 1 C
(4)
C
The d b calculated by equation (1)-(3) are substituted in equation (4) to
calculate the expected average delay of equivalent car caused by bus stopping during
different periods of time:
1) When 0 ﹤ t L ≤ r  t S ,

db 
 5  2y
 t s3   3  3  (5   ) y  t L   t s 2
6 C  (1  y )
2
 4C  (1  y ) 2C  (1  y ) 
(1   )  t L 
(5)
 1   2

 ts
2
   tL 2 
 2(1  y ) 2 2 C C  (1  y ) 

2) When r  t S ﹤ t L ﹤r,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1214
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db 
3 y
 t s3  1  5  (3   )  y  t s2
6 C  (1  y )
2
4C  (1  y )
  2   (  3  1)  y (r  t L)  (r 3  2 t L  3r t L )  y
3 3 2 (6)
ts 
2 2

2(1  y ) 6 C 2  (1  y)
3) When t L ≥ r,

3 y 1  5  (3   ) y 2   2  2  ( 2  3  1)  y
db   3
 ts  ts
6 C 2  (1  y ) 4C  (1  y )
ts (7)
2(1  y )

There,  is the lane’s green split and y is the lane’s flow ratio of the
approach.
THE INFLUENCE OF EFFICIENCY BY THE DELAY
The model of the efficiency
Werner Brilon once connected with traffic flow and the work theory in
physics (Brilon, 2000). The work theory states that the faster the heavier object
moves in the force’s direction, the more the efficient the force is. To the traffic flow,
the faster more cars move, the higher the efficiency. Based on the above analysis, the
efficiency of the traffic flow is shown as in equation (8) (Shen, 2009).
E  Q  T  vT (8)
Where, E is the efficiency, and T is the time, and vT is the traffic mean speed.
To the situation of setting up the bus stop upstream of the intersection, the
efficiency of the lane influenced by the bus stop in one signal cycle is:
Q C  L
E  Q  T  vT  (9)
t0  d b
Where, t 0 is the average time a car in the traffic flow spends on moving
through the length L without the influence from bus stopping.
The expected efficiency of a single car is hard to calculate, but the expected
efficiency of the traffic flow can be easily obtained. Ater the expected average delay

d b
is calculated by equation (5)-(7), put the values into equation (9), and the values

of E are the expected average efficiency of the lane at the signalized intersection,
which is influenced by bus stopping.
Example
Upstream of an intersection of a new secondary main road, a bus stop is set
up, as shown in Figure 1. The length L is 100 m, and the saturation flow rate S is 600
pcu/h, and the arrival rate Q is 400 pcu/h. The signal cycle C is 120 s, with the
effective red time r 70 s. The average space headway hS is 3 s, and the average
stopping time of the bus t S is 15 s. The split green ratio  is 0.6, and the flow ratio
y is 0.7. If there is no bus stopping, the average speed of the lane is 20 km/h. So, in
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1215
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this example t L =300 s＞r=70 s, and then, according to equation (7):

 3  0.7
db   153
6  120  (1  0.7)
2

1  5  0.6  (3  0.6)  0.7

  152
4120  (1  0.7) ,
0.6  2  0.6  (0.6  3  0.6  1)  0.7
2 2
  15
2  (1  0.7)
 6.7s

100
And t 0   18s .
20 3.6

So the efficiency of the lane influenced by the bus stop in one signal cycle E
is:
400  120  100  54.0pcu 
m s
E 3600 2 1

18  6.7
LOCATION OF BUS STOP UPSTREAM OF THE SIGNALIZED
INTERSECTION
Some principles should be followed when setting up a bus stop upstream of
the signalized intersection (Peng, 2001). According to the principles and the
relationship between the efficiency E and the length L, a better location of the bus
stop can be determined.
The analysis of location of the bus stop

When 0 ﹤ t L ≤ r  t S or r  t S ﹤ t L ﹤ r, that is 0 ﹤ L ≤ Q  hS  r  t S  or

Q  hS  r  t S  ﹤ L ﹤ Q  h S  r , according to equation (5), (6) and (9), t 0 , d b , and

t L all relate to L when calculating the efficiency E. Because equation (9) has a

physical meaning, the length L just needs to meet L  d b ( L)  d b ( L) , then the
efficiency E is calculated. The corresponding efficiency E, when the length L is the
critical value, is also needed. Comparing with the different values of the efficiency E
calculated above, the value of the length L which corresponds to the maximum value
of the efficiency E is the value we want in these situations.
When t L ≥ r, according to equations (7) and (9), d does not relate to the
b

length L. After the equation derivation, the first derivative of the efficiency E is
always greater than zero, and the second derivative is always less than zero. That is
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1216
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to say, in this situation, the longer the length L is, the higher the efficiency E is, but
the efficiency’s rate of increase E  E n  E n 1 gradually decreases. So when
 E ≤  E 0 , increasing the length L cannot improve the efficiency E. The length L is

the value we want in this situation when  E   E 0 , and  E 0 ’s value should be

determined according to the specific situation.

As stated previously, the best value of the length from the bus stop to the
stop line LM is shown as equation (10):
 
{L | Max[( E | L  d b L   d b L ), ( E | L  Q  hS  r  t S )]}0＜t L  r  t S

L M  {L | Max[( E | L  d b L   d b L ), (10)
 ( E | L  Q  h S  r ), ( E | L  Q  hS  r  t S )]} r  t S ＜t L  r
( L | E   E 0) t L  r
Example
The traffic conditions are shown as in the example in the previous section.
According to equation (10), t L is greater than r in the example, so the value of the
efficiency E and the rate of increase E are calculated and shown in the Table 1.
Table 1. The Result of the Calculation of the Efficiency and Its Rate of Increase.
No. Length Efficiency Efficiency’s rate of increase
L (m) E ( pcu  m2  s1 ) E ( pcu  m2  s1 ), E  E n  E n 1
1 60 45.7 -
2 70 48.3 2.6
3 80 50.5 2.2
4 90 52.4 1.9
5 100 54.0 1.6
6 110 55.3 1.4
7 120 56.5 1.2
8 130 57.6 1.0
9 140 58.5 0.9

Based on the data shown in Table 1, it is supposed that when E ﹤

1.0 pcu  m2  s1 , we think that the efficiency E cannot be improved by increasing the

length L. So the value of LM is the length L corresponding to E = 1.0 pcu  m2  s1 ,

which is 130 m. That is to say, the best location of the bus stop in this example is
130 m away from the stop line upstream of the signalized intersection.
THE CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION
The delay model of the lane upstream of the signalized intersection is
summarized, and a model of calculating the efficiency of the lane upstream of the
signalized intersection, which follows the work theory in physics, is given.
According to the relationship between the length from the bus stop to the stop line
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1217
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and the efficiency of the lane, the location of the bus stop can be determined.
Because of the limitations of the research conditions, this paper only considers the
situation of the through-left-right lane or the through-right lane that the bus stop
affects, and the situations of the right lane and the buses only lane are excluded. The
model to determine the location of the bus stop by the relationship between the
length and the efficiency can also be improved in a later study.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This paper is supported by China “The Eleventh Five-Year” National
Scientific and Technological Support Plan (2006BAJ18B07) and Doctoral Program
of the Ministry of Education of China (20070286011).
REFERENCES
Brilon, W. (2000). “Traffic flow analysis beyond traditional methods.” Fourth
international symposium on highway capacity, US, pp.26-41.
Ge, H. W. (2004). “The design and adaptability of urban bus stop.” Modern Urban
Research, 2004(11), 53-57.
Ge, H. W. (2006). “Traffic delay at signal-controlled intersection with bus stop
upstream.” Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),
36(6), pp.1019-1023.
Ge, H. W. (2008). “Bus stopping delays at signal-controlled intersection with bus
stops upstream.” Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology, 40(12),
pp.2062-2067.
Peng, G. X., and Mo, H. K. (2001). “Some problems in locating urban bus stop and
countermeasure.” Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 1(3),
pp.77-80.
Shen, J. J. (2009). “Research on the complexity degree of urban intersections and
the relation with efficiency.” Transportation Planning and Management,
Southeast University, China P. R.
Wang, Q., and Yang, X. G. (2003). “Impact of bus stops on delay and capacity of
shared approaches at signalized intersections.” China Civil Engineering
Journal, 36(1), pp.58-63.
Wang, W. (2002). Planning methods and management technology of the urban
public traffic system, Science Press, Beijing, China P. R.
Yang, L. H. (2007). “Research on the location of bus stops upstream the approach at
signalized intersections.” Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology, 39(2),
pp.292-295.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1218
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Comprehensive Transportation Information Platform Based CORBA

Framework and XML Data Exchange Technology

Qin MING1 and Shi LEI2

1
School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, East China Jiaotong University, Mail
Stop Nanchang, Shuanggang East Road, Jiangxi Nanchang 330013 China; PH (0791)
7046083; FAX (0791) 7046083; email: qqmm1956@126.com
2
School of Economy and Management, East China Jiaotong University, Mail Stop
Nanchang, Shuanggang East Road, Jiangxi Nanchang 330013 China; PH (0791)
7046917; email: micheals123@163.com

ABSTRACT
The order of the building of many of our urban transportation systems mostly is
the construction of the most urgently needed transport subsystems first and then the
construction of a comprehensive transportation information platform, thus there must
be an inevitable consequence of a heterogeneous data-integration problem in the
construction of the comprehensive transportation information platform. In response
to the problem above, and in order to solve the heterogeneous data integration
problem of the various transport subsystems effectively and provide the basis for the
construction of a comprehensive transportation information platform, this paper
presents a program, which includes a combination of CORBA framework and the
exchange technology of Extensible Markup Language (XML) by using the
complementary of the two parts above. By taking the data-transmission and
data-interchange of Nanchang vehicle management system and Nanchang traffic
accident systems as an example, this paper provides a specific solution.

INTRODUCTION
Before a comprehensive transportation information platform will be built, there
are many intelligent transportation subsystems built in most cities of China. These
subsystems are often developed by different companies, through the use of different
tools and different technical standards in different development platforms at different
times and run on different operating systems and different database platforms. There
are usually firewalls between client and server in the subsystems. To integrate these
cross-platform heterogeneous subsystems in order to achieve information sharing
between each subsystems and coordinated operation of all subsystems, the key is to
solve the integration issue of heterogeneous data from various subsystems (Li et al.,
2006).
At present, there are mainly three kinds of methods to solve the issue of
heterogeneous data integration, data warehouse, federated database and middleware
technology. These three methods each have each shortcoming. Data warehouse must
be updated as data from the data warehouse changes, which cannot meet the
requirements of real-time data integration needs. In Federated database systems, the
complex structure of storage causes large overhead, which leads to the difference of

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1219
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increasing data source. Middleware technology is a better application to achieve data

integration in the distributed environment; the software members of its object have
reusable, portable and interoperable features in the distributed heterogeneous
environment. However, there are shortages of data description and data exchange
existing in middleware technology (Tan et al., 1998). 
Today, XML（Extensible Markup Language）has gradually become a hotspot of
the research of data integration, which makes possible the standardized description of
a variety of irregular data. Using XML technology as the cornerstone to build data
integration platform is a trend of development of data integration technology (White
et al., 2002).
USING CORBA AND XML
Theory and Analysis of using CORBA and XML
Linking independent transport subsystems through the comprehensive
transportation information platform system in order to achieve data sharing and
collaborative management, there is an open and distributed system architecture most
commonly used in such system. CORBA (Common Object Request Broker
Architecture) is the most commonly used in distributed systems, which is also a
mature middleware (Li et al., 2002).
Although XML and CORBA are both independent from platform and
programming language, they have a lot of integration benefits in distributed objects.
CORBA is a technology used to create distributed object systems on a heterogeneous
platform, and there are advantages in the description of data structure definition and
data exchange by using XML (Zhu et al., 2002). Combining these two
complementary technologies, CORBA and XML, can effectively solve the issue of
data integration in the comprehensive transportation information platform system.
Architecture design
Through the above discussion, the architecture design of comprehensive
transportation information platform based CORBA framework and XML data
exchange technology is shown as a 3-layer C/S computer model in Figure 1 (for
illustration, not covered by the platform's internal applications). The basic idea of
this framework is to using CORBA as a middleware to achieve systems integration
and to build a bridge to achieve interaction between platform and each subsystem.
It will shield the distribution of the various data sources and system heterogeneity in
order to enable platform and each subsystem to communicate with each other, that
using XML, as a common model to achieve information exchange, in order to solve
data heterogeneity caused by the data from various data sources. Achievement of
traffic information exchange between subsystems and comprehensive transportation
information platform traffic information is through querying at computer services
from the first layer of application-level, and then accessing and storing the
information from the third layer of information access through the second layer of
the middle layer. We will discuss in detail below about second layer as a core
position in the system. 

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1220
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First layer: Application Layer

Monitoring Communication Browser Existing

Station Controller equipment

Second layer : Interlayer

CORBA（ORB）

Data Storage Component

Query Processor  System DTD 

XML Wrapper

Third layer : Information Layer

Database 1 Database 2 Database n

……

Figure 1. Comprehensive Transportation Information Platform of Nanchang

based CORBA architecture and XML switching technology framework.
IMPLEMENTATION
Here, we take data query and data maintenance of Nanchang Vehicle
Management System and Nanchang Traffic Accident Management System as an
example to design a model, in order to explain how to implement the platform.
Model background
(1) In the CAR database of Nanchang Vehicle Management System, the procedure of
creating the vehicle file table CAR_CLGL in the database CAR is as follows:
Create Table CAR_CLGL
( platenumber CHAR(20) NOT NULL UNIQUE,
platetype CHAR (10),
vehicletype CHAR (10),
enginenumber CHAR (20),
framenumber CHAR (20),
bodycolor CHAR(6),
fueltype CHAR(6),
seatamout INT,
lord INT,

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1221
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belongtounit CHAR(20),
address CHAR(20),
zip CHAR(10),
PRIMARY KEY (platenumber));
(2) In the JTSG database of Traffic Accident Management System, the procedure of
creating the accident stakeholder files table JTSG_STAKEHOLDER in the database
JTSG is as follows:

Create Table JTSG_STAKEHOLDER

( accidentnumber CHAR(20),
accidentpname CHAR (10),
accidentpgender CHAR (2),
accidentpage INT,
accidentpid CHAR (20) NOT NULL UNIQUE,
address CHAR(20),
damagdegree CHAR(10),
licensefnumber CHAR (20),
drivetype CHAR (10),
driveage INT,
drivertype CHAR(10),
transmode CHAR(10),
platenumber CHAR(20) ,
platetype CHAR (10),
PRIMARY KEY (accidentpid));
Implementation Tools
Borland's Visibroker, based on CORBA specification, is used to provide services
provided by the CORBA ORB to implementation of subsystems integration. Though
the use of Visibroker, which provides CORBA naming services, event services, and
other basic services, we can build CORBA applications. Concrete realization of tool
is Borland C++ Builder, though using Microsoft XML Parser achieves file analysis.
Concrete realization of model
Interfaces of Data Storage Component
(1) IDL definition of data access object interface:
module DB_Access{
//Define database exception
Exeception DB_Exception
{string s;};
//Get SQL command statements from clients
Interface DB_aCcess{
string Get_SQL(in string sql)raises(DbException);
// Return results to the requesting client in the form of XML DOM object
string XML_DOM(in string xmldoc);
//Other operations
…
};

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1222
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};
(2) IDL definition of data Maintenance object interface:
module DB_Maintain{
// Define database exception
Exeception DB_eXception
{string s;};
Interface DB_mAintain{
// Get SQL command statements from clients
string Get_SQL(in string sql)raises(DbException);
// Other operations
…
};
};
3.3.2 XML Wrapper
XML wrapper’s main task is to complete the mapping between database model and
DTD mode:
(1) To complete the mapping between the vehicle file table CAR_CLGL in the
database CAR and its DTD, the DTD is defined as follows:
<?xml version=“1.0” encoding=“GB2312” ?>
<!DOCTYPE CARS [
<!ELEMENT CARS ANY>
<!ELEMENT platenumber (#PCDATA) >
<!ATTLISTST platenumber PNUMBER ID #REQUIRED>
<!ELEMENT vehicletype (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT enginenumber (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT framenumber (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT bodycolor (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT fueltype (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT lord (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT belongtounit (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT address (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT zip (#PCDATA) >
]>
(2) To complete the mapping between the accident stakeholder files table
JTSG_STAKEHOLDER in the database JTSG and its DTD, the DTD is defined as
follows:
<?xml version=“1.0” encoding=“GB2312” ?>
<!DOCTYPE JTSG_ STAKEHOLDE [
<!ELEMENT JTSG_STAKEHOLDER ANY >
<!ELEMENT accidentnumber (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT accidentpname (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT accidentpgender (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT accidentpage (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT accidentpid (#PCDATA) >
<!ATTLISTST accidentpid PNUMBER ID #REQUIRED>
<!ELEMENT address (#PCDATA) >

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1223
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<!ELEMENT damagdegree (#PCDATA) >

<!ELEMENT licensefnumber (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT drivetype (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT driveage (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT drivertype (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT transmode (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT platenumber (#PCDATA) >
<!ELEMENT platetype (#PCDATA) >
]>
System DTD
System DTD is used to achieve a database connection by targeting keywords, so it’s
not required to define data type for every element. There are only two database
systems and two tables in this model, specific definition of system DTD and two
database data are as follows (repeated parts at middle are omitted):
<?xml version=“1.0” encoding=“GB2312” ?>
<!DOCTYPE OVRDTD [
<!ELEMENT OVRDTD (DataBase+) >
<!ELEMENT DataBase (Table+) >
<!ATTLISTST DataBase name CDATA #REQUIRED>
<!ELEMENT Table (Column+) >
<!ATTLISTST Table name CDATA #REQUIRED>
<!ELEMENT Column （#PCDATA）>
<!ATTLISTST Column name CDATA #REQUIRED>
]>
<OVRDTD>
<DataBase name=“ CAR” >
<Table name=“ CAR_CLGL”>
<Column name=“ platenumber”>
</ Column >
<Column name=“ platetype”>
</ Column >
…
<Column name=“ zip”>
</ Column >
</ Table >
</ DataBase >
<DataBase name=“ JTSG” >
<Table name=“ JTSG_STAKEHOLDER”>
<Column name=“ accidentnumber”>
</ Column >
<Column name=“ accidentpname”>
</ Column >
…
<Column name=“ platetype”>
</ Column >
</ Table >

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1224
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</ DataBase >

</OVRDTD>
3.3.4 Query Processor
IDL definition of the interface is as follows:
module DB_Search{
// Define database exception
Exeception DB_Exception
{string s;};
Interface DB_Connection{
// Get requests to access data object from data components
In the acquisition of data requests for data access object components
DB_aCcess Get_SQL (in string sql) raises (DB_Exception);
// Submit the converted SQL statements located in the database according
// to the system DTD to the corresponding wrapper
string sqlmatch (in string sql);
//Back to XML files
string XMLDOC (string sql);
// Get requests to Maintain data object from data components
DB_Maintain GET (in string sql) raises (DB_Exception);
};
Interface Dispenser{
// Release connection
void releaseDBConnectionobject (in long con) raises (DB_Exception));
};
};
CONCLUSION
This paper proposes a comprehensive utilization of CORBA and XML to solve
the issue of heterogeneous data integration on the comprehensive transportation
information platform. This paper provides a design of framework for the
comprehensive transportation information platform based CORBA framework and
XML data exchange technology on the basis of analyzing the integration of the two
technologies. It is a reasonable solution that can solve the issue of heterogeneous
data integration. This paper provides a specific solution by taking data exchange
between Nanchang Vehicle Management System and Nanchang Traffic Accident
System as an example, which provides a feasible approach to solve the issue of
heterogeneous data integration on the comprehensive transportation information
platform.
REFERENCES
Li, H., Li, M., and Lu, X. (2006). “Research of traffic information sharing
technology in the environment of heterogeneous database.” Journal of
Highway and Transportation Research and Development. 2006 (6), Vol. 23
(6), 140-144.
Li, R., Lu, H., and Shi, Q. (2005). “Research of XML technology application in
transport integrated database.” Journal of Highway and Transportation
Research and Development. 2005 (9), Vol. 22 (9), 119-121.
Tan, Y., Mo, Q., and Zhou, X. (1998). “Research and implementation of connection

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1225
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technology of heterogeneous data sources in web environment.” Computer

Engineering. 1998 (8), Vol. 24 (8), 26-28.
White, C., Quin, L., and Burman, L. (2002). “Section 1: introduction.” Mastering
XML Premium Edition. Translation. Zhou Shengbing, Song Hao and Xiao
Wei. Beijing.
Zhu, Q., and Zheng, B. (2004). “Preface and all sections.” Principle and Application
of CORBA. Ed. Zhu Qiliang, Zheng Bin. Beijing.

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1226
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Evaluation Methods of Pedestrian Facilities around the Beijing Olympic Venues

Area

Yong-yan WU1, Zhong-hua WEI2, Jian RONG3 and Xiao-ming LIU4

1
PH.D student; Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology,
100124, Beijing, China; PH (86)010-67396182; FAX (86)010-67391509; e-mail:
21102210@ emails. bjut.edu.cn
2
Assist Professor; Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology,
100124, Beijing, China; PH (86)010-67396239; FAX (86)010-67391509; e-mail:
weizhonghua@bjut.edu.cn
3
Professor; Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology,
100124, Beijing, China; PH (86)010-67392082; FAX (86)010-67391509; e-mail:
jrong@bjut.edu.cn
4
Professor; Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology,
100124, Beijing, China; PH (86)010-67392082; FAX (86)010-67391509; e-mail:
lxm@bjut.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
The 29th Olympic Games was held in Beijing in 2008. Large number of
spectators and tourists were attracted to the Olympic venue area. Providing access to
pedestrian around Olympic venue area is a crucial issue. The objective of this paper
is to study evaluation processes of pedestrian facilities around Olympic venue area.
Comparing three evaluation methods reflects that simulation is the best approach.
After comparing several pedestrian traffic simulation packages, Legion Studio is
chosen. Based on simulation method, evaluation processes are developed. Pedestrian
traffic demand forecast, evaluation period, simulation period, simulation area and
other steps are studied in details. As an example, pedestrian traffic around an
Olympic gymnasium was simulated. Improvements were recommended and effect
was also simulated. Finally, the simulation results were compared to actual
pedestrian traffic during the Olympic.

INTRODUCTION
The 29th Olympic Games was held in Beijing from August 8 to August 24 in
2008. Many spectators went to Olympic venues to watch sport competitions. In
addition, Olympic architectures are unique and magnificent in style. They also
attracted many tourists. Therefore, pedestrian facilities around Olympic venues faced
great pressure. There were several reasons to evaluate whether pedestrian facilities
around Olympic venues met traffic demands.
First, pedestrian volume around Olympic area is huge. Before Olympic Games
start, thousands or even tens thousands of visitors from the city or cities nearby
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congregated in a small area. Beijing Transportation Research Center (BTRC) found

that Beijing Workers′ Stadium attracted almost 60,000 spectators plus background
pedestrian traffic when the game began (BTRC, 2008).
By surveying other large-scale activities, BTRC found that about 55% of
spectators arrive at the venues one hour ahead of the game and leave in 0.5-1 hour
after the game is over (BTRC, 2008). The pedestrian peak period is short.
Because of the two reasons mentioned above, peak pedestrian rate is very high.
BTRC forecasted that the peak pedestrian flow is 60,000 persons per hour around
Olympic Park area (BTRC, 2008).
Second, for some games peak pedestrian flow and daily peak flow overlap
each other. For example, basketball games in Wukesong Basketball venue began at
9:00. Most of spectators arrived between 7:00 to 9:00 and they overlapped the daily
peak trips (The 29th Olympic Games Organization Committee, 2008).
Third, pedestrian spatial environment changes when they went out of the
Olympic venue. Pedestrians inside a building are in a highly constraint environment.
They can endure smaller space and bear higher density. Once they are outside and
embraced by open area with no constrain, the conditions change and the space
needed is changed.
Four, most of the Olympic venues are located in central city and pedestrian
facilities around these venues have already existed. Large pedestrian flow demand
was not considered when these facilities were designed. However, Olympic Games
last only a short time, hence redesigning these facilities is out of the question.
Therefore, how to utilize the pedestrian facilities more efficient and maintain a
decent level of service is an important issue. It may disturb some residences’ daily
lives. However, the inconvenience will last only a few hours a day.
Locations of the Olympic venues are shown in Figure 1 (The 29th Olympic
Games Organization Committee, 2008).

Figure 1. Olympic Venues Location in Beijing.

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It is certain that pedestrian traffic around Olympic venue area during the game
will be crowd. One of the important issues during the Olympic period is security,
especially pedestrian traffic security. Therefore, pedestrian facilities around Olympic
venue area must be evaluated before the Games and improvement measurements
should be made.
EVALUATE METHOD REVIEW AND CHOOSING
Evaluation of pedestrian facilities to decide what action to take can be based on
either data calculated or expert’ experiences. Therefore, there are two types of
evaluation: qualitative analysis methods and quantitative analysis methods (Wu,
2004).
Qualitative analysis methods rely on managers to make improvement decisions
based on their experiences. When a decision maker is well experience, the decision
may be useful and the problem is solved. Otherwise, these measurements may be
useless and even cause severe crowd accidents. This method is usually used for
pedestrian improvement preparation before a large event according to macro
pedestrian demands and crowd area judgments and usually requires little time and
money. The result of this decision is hard to convince the expert one way or the
others. In addition, effects of improvement measures are not quantitative and are hard
to judge. In China, Qualitative analysis method is widely used in large event
management by police officers. They are usually on site managers and have to make
a quick decision at the spot.
Quantitative analysis methods mainly include two types: mathematical analysis
method and pedestrian simulation method.
Mathematical analysis method uses a pedestrian behaviors model to calculate if
a pedestrian facility meets the demand or to calculate the effects of improvement
measures. Pedestrian behavior models usually describe one type of human behavior
or mutual influence between types of behavior. Pedestrian traffic system is a complex
system. Multi-dimensional random factors influence element states within the system
and their interactions (Wu, 2004). Therefore, it needs extensive time and effort to
describe a pedestrian traffic system. The random factors are hard to consider in this
method. This method is usually used to calculate simple behavior system like
pedestrian queuing system etc.
Pedestrian simulation method uses a pedestrian simulation software to model
pedestrian traffic system and base on the simulation outputs to judge the levels of
service or the effects of improvement measures. The software often integrates a
number of behavioral models. Therefore, this method is generally used for describing
a complex pedestrian traffic system and interactions between behaviors. In addition,
it can share data with other software. Although this method requires more time and
effort to complete a task than the qualitative analysis method, it is much simpler than
the mathematical analysis method especially for plan program comparison and
selection of a complicated pedestrian system. Its disadvantages are that its reliability
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depends heavily on the software, data availability, and model builder’s experience.
This method is usually used to test a complicated pedestrian system, especially to
predict future demands (Wu, 2004).
Olympic demands are in the future and the pedestrian behaviors are complex
around the venue area. Therefore, pedestrian simulation method is appropriate and
chosen to test improvement measures.
In order to select the appropriate software, several simulation packages,
namely, Legion, STEPS, BuildingEXDOUS, MYRIAD, PAXPORT and SIMULEX
are compared. Of these simulation software, Legion, BuildingEXDOUS and STEPS
are regarded more comprehensive in some aspects of simulating pedestrian flow
(Davis Associates Limited, 2003).
Past experience with a software also played an important role in software
selection. If the software was used by the Olympic Games before, agencies are more
familiar with the outputs. Legion has been used in the 2000 Sydney Olympic Games,
the 2004 Athens Olympic Games, and the London Olympic bid. It is fully accredited
and acknowledged by the International Olympic Committee (Berrou, 2005). In
addition, Legion has already collected pedestrian behavior data in Hong Kong,
Europe, America and UK. These data can provide great help in simulation of the
Beijing Olympic pedestrian flow.
As a result, Legion Studio EP 2.0 is selected as the Olympic pedestrian
simulation software.
EVALUATION PROCESS
Evaluation process includes data collection, pedestrian traffic demand forecast
and pedestrian simulation. These steps are described in details in the following
paragraphs.
Basic data collection
Before simulation, basic data for simulation collected from Olympic venue
operation team includes pedestrian facilities site, capacity, locations, size, event
schedule, and traffic management measures related to pedestrian traffic etc. These
basic data are needed for the simulation.
Pedestrian facilities site, capacity, location and size decide available space and
obstacle for walking. These data are used to create the initial pedestrian simulation
model. Event schedule and crowd size determine simulation periods and pedestrian
peak flow. Pedestrian traffic managements affect pedestrian behaviors and
distribution around Olympic venues.
Pedestrian traffic demand forecast
Information required for a spectator traffic demand forecast includes trip origin,
composition, number of Olympic spectator, and pedestrian time and spatial
distribution.
Spectator composition information includes man or woman, foreign or local,
etc. This study is based on the assumption that the number of women and man are
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equal. Because China has the largest population in the world and its economy has
been developing rapidly, the proportion of foreign and local spectators shall be
compatible to the previous Olympic Games but closer to the upper limit. Chen (Chen,
2005) proposed a 30-70 split (see Table 1). UK pedestrian model is adopted as a
foreign model. Pedestrians are not carrying baggage, because nobody is allowed to
bring baggage into Olympic venues.
Table 1. Composition of the Audience.
Type Foreign Local
Rate 30% 70%

Attendance rate is usually related to game type, time of the day and so on.
The worse scenario should be considered in the simulation. Therefore, the assumed
attendance rate is 100%.
Spectator time distributions include egress distribution and ingress
distribution. Spectator ingress time lasts much longer than egress time. BTRC
divided them into half an hour interval based on pedestrian size, competition time
and venue location. This information is enough for choosing the simulation period.
Shi (Shi, 2007) studied large event pedestrian distribution and developed
regression equations to estimate egress and ingress distribution in minutes. When
simulation period is decided, the spectator distribution is known.
Past Olympic Games data indicated that traffic mode split is affected by
location of venues, number of spectator, time schedule, etc. The recommended
traffic mode split in Olympic park is given in Table 2 (BTRC, 2008). These
numbers shall be adjusted according to the actual situation in specific venues.
Table 2. Recommended Traffic Mode Split in Beijing Olympic Park.
Traffic model Beijing Olympic Green
Subway 32%
Bus 62%
Other 6%

Wu suggested that spectator traffic flow could be assigned to bus lines

according to bus routes and urban transit network, (Wu). Pedestrian OD around the
venues was collected. The pedestrian ODij as software input is the sum of the
spectator ODij-h and the background pedestrian ODij-b,
Qij  Qij b  Qij h (2)

Where:Qij- pedestrian volume from origin i to destination j;

Qij-b-background pedestrian volume from i to j;
Qij-h-Spector pedestrian volume from i to j.
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Evaluation period, simulation period and area defining

Evaluation involves simulation of the pedestrian volumes in periods. Then
compare the outputs. In general, the evaluation period is the period with the
maximum pedestrian volume.
To stabilize the simulation result, the simulation period shall include a seeding
interval. Therefore, the simulation period is longer than the evaluation period. The
additional time is equal to or greater than the longest travel time in the network. The
simulation period is usually an integral multiple of 5minutes.
l
t (3)
60  v foot

Where: t-additional time period (min);

l-the longest OD distance (m);
vfoot -pedestrian mean walking speed(m/s ).
Private cars are prohibited from parking around Olympic venues and it is
convenient to ride public transit to Olympic venues. Therefore, public transit shall be
the prefer mode of transportation for most of the spectators. Then from the gate of
the venue to where spectators get off the public transit is defined as the simulation
area boundary around Olympic venues. It is reasonable to assume that majority of the
spectator will select public transit.
Simulation model building and parameter calibration
Pedestrian facilities location around the Olympic venue is surveyed and walking
paths and obstacles are identified. AutoCAD drawings showed all facilities around
Olympic venue are obtained from pertinent agencies. Delete all unnecessary
information from the drawing before importing the AutoCAD base map to Legion
simulation software to establish the initial model for simulation
Next step is to calibrate parameters. Model builder translates pedestrian
composition, evaluation standard system, walking principles, pedestrian demands
and management measures to software input. For example, the end of a crosswalk is
considered as a waiting zone. The level of service criteria for outdoors flat ground in
China suggested by Shi is summarized in Table 3 (Shi, 2007).
Table 3. Level of Service Criteria for Outdoors Flat Ground.
LOS Avg.Ped.Space（m2/per） Avg.Ped.Density (per/ m2)
A >5.00 <0.20
B 3.94-5.00 0.20~0.25
C 2.41-3.94 0.25~0.41
D 0.94~2.41 0.41~1.06
E 0.40~0.94 1.06~2.50
F 0.40 2.50
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Furthermore, pedestrian safety criteria should be included as one of the criteria

for pedestrian improvement. Pedestrian safety criterion is set at 2.0 per/m2.
Simulation output types includes graph, data, and/or video and it can be partial
or whole output. Output type is set by the user.
Simulation debugging and running
Compare the simulation result with observed pedestrian behaviors in similar
area. Adjust parameters when needed until the result of the simulation model is
satisfactory. Then run simulation several times with different random seeds to get a
set of results.
Simulation result analysis
Simulation outputs include video, graph, and data. From video or graph output,
the operator can point out areas of traffic jam and low level of service. In depth
analysis of the spatial data will reveal the starting and ending time of heavy
pedestrian crowd.
Using partial maximum density graphs, partial mean density graphs and output
data, effects of improvement measurements can be analyzed.
Pedestrian traffic improvement project and its testing
Discuss the simulation results with the venue operation team. Explain the
problems to them and listen to their ideas. After all, they should know the conditions
better than anybody else should.
After meeting with the operation team, develop a pedestrian traffic
improvement scheme. Translate the improvement into simulation input. Calibrate and
run the simulation, and then evaluate the effects. If the improvement does not meet
the demand, revise the improvement and run the simulation again until the levels of
service reach the preset standard.
Pedestrian improvement project forming
Once the pedestrian improvement projects all around the Olympic area are
developed, the pedestrian improvement project is completed.
CASE STUDY
Take Olympic gymnasium in the Beijing University of Technology (BUT) for
example. After data collection, it is estimated that total spectators is 4906. There are
two exits and one entrance to the gymnasium for spectators; four bus stops, namely,
West of Sifang Overpass, Sihui, Shuangjing, and South Gate of BUT. Footway width
is around 3.5 meters except 1.1meters at the West of Sifang Overpass bus stop and
2.5 m at other bus stops.
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Figure 2. Location of Exits and Bus Stops.

Parking is forbidding around the area during Olympic period. Therefore, there is
no parking area for spectators.
The ingress and egress flow rate are studied at 0.5-hour interval. Ingress is
divided into 5 intervals and egress is divided into 3 intervals. Spectator rate in every
interval is shown in Table 1 and Table 2 (BTRC, 2008).
Table 4. Spectator Flow Rate in Ingress Period.
Interval -2:00~-1:30 -1:30~-1:00 -1:00~-0:30 -0:00~0:00 0:00~0:30
Number of
5% 15% 25% 55% 5%
spectator
Note: 0:00 is the game starting time.
Table 5. Spectator Flow Rate in Egress Period.
Interval -0:30~0:00 0:00~0:30 0:30~1:00
Number of
3% 95% 2%
spectator
Note: 0:00 is the game ending time.

There is no place to attract pedestrians around the campus; therefore,

background pedestrians are few. So spectator flow decided the simulation period.
Based on the flow rate from these tables, total pedestrian volume in the second
interval of egress period is the largest and is defined as the evaluation period.
Considering attractiveness, competition type and other factors, the peak flow
rate will happen at about 22:00~22:30 on August 17, 2008, for the final game.
Simulation period is 40 minutes, which includes seeding interval.
The number of background pedestrians, who most likely are the common bus
riders, during the simulation period is very low. Based on the principles of the
shortest distances, the destinations are West of Sifang Overpass and South Gate of
BUT. Two walking entrances were set.
Spectators’ destination points are mainly bus stops during the egress period.
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Assumed that number of spectators using east exit and west exit are the same and
there is a walking exit for spectators by foot, the pedestrian OD around Olympic
venue is projected as shown in Table 6.
Table 6. Pedestrian OD around Special Event Area.
O East Walking East Walking
East Exit West Exit
D Entrance Entrance
West of Sifang Overpass 786 786 50
Sihui 378 378
Shuangjing 330 330
South Gate of BUT 168 168 50
West Exit 668 668

The direction of spectators flow is mainly from the two exits to the west. The
simulation area was the footway from the east exit to the South Gate of BUT (the red
rectangle in Figure 4).

Figure 3. AutoCAD Figure of Simulation Area.

AutoCAD drawing is acquired from the traffic department of venue operation
team. The drawing is trimmed (Figure 4) and then imported into Legion. After
building and calibrating the model, the simulation model is run for several times.
Figure 5 shows the simulation results in color-coded level of service. (Legion
Limited, 2005).

Figure 4. Color Coded Levels of Service.

Figure 5. The Lowest Level of Service in the Simulation Area.

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According to simulation results, the pedestrian facilities will meet the demand
and there is no traffic jam. The level of service on most of the footpaths is E.
Because the event happened at late night, the less than desire level of service is
considered acceptable.
Figure 6 indicated that at the west of east exit beside the West of Sifang
Overpass bus stop the worst level of service reaches level F. The maximum
pedestrian density at that point is 1.86Per/m2, which is smaller than the safety
threshold of 2.0Per/m2. Therefore, as far as safety concern, it is acceptable.

East Exit East Exit

Figure 6. Lowest Service Level near East Exit Before and After Improved.

Figure 7. Entity Density Variation near East Exit before and after Improved.
To resolve this problem, two improvement measures are proposed: (1) call the
bus ahead of time to reduce the number of passengers waiting at West of Sifang
Overpass bus stop to remove waiting area from footpath; (2) establish warning line
on the footpath to regulate pedestrian behaviors.
Simulation result of footpath near east exit after the proposed improvement is
shown on the right hand side of Figure 6 and Figure 7. The result showed
pedestrian level of service is improved from F to E level. The highest density
decreased to 1.20 Person/m2.
During the Olympic Games, the pedestrian traffic in the simulation area was
observed during the egress period. It is found that (1) the pedestrian traffic on the
footpath near the east exit was similar to the simulation result and there was a little
crowd in the peak time and (2) because there was no physical constrain and low level
of service on the footpath, some spectators overflow to the bicycle way. Since buses
must enter and leave bus station through the bicycle way, pedestrian traffic on
bicycle way disturbed bus operation.
SUMMARY
This research developed a simulation process to evaluate pedestrian facilities
around Olympic venues area. It is determined that pedestrian simulation method is
the best approach and Legion EP2 is an appropriate simulation software. The
evaluation process is established and the procedure comprise of eight steps. As an
example, simulation was run on the pedestrian facility around Olympic gymnasium
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in BUT. Simulation results were analyzed and improvement measures were

recommended. Finaly, simulation results were compared to real pedestrian traffic.
The simulation result and the real traffic are similar.
It is recommended that future research should incoporate factors such as
pedestrian environment, before or after activities, type of activities, acceptable level
of service etc., to evaluation process.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The work is supported by the Beijing University of Technology Research Fund for
Young Scholars （ Grant No. X1004011200801） and the Doctor Foundation of
Beijing University of Technology.
REFERENCES
Beijing Transportation Research Center (BTRC) (2008), Olympic venues traffic
demand forecast (in Chinese), Beijing, China.
Berrou, J. L., Beecham, J., Quaglia, P., Kagarlis, M.A., and Gerodimos, A. (2005).
“Calibration and validation of the legion simulation model using empirical
date.” Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, pp.167-181.
Chen,Y. Y., An, Z. Q., and Rong, J. (2005). “Prediction of transportation demand for
Olympic spectator.” Journal of Beijing University of Technology, Beijing,
31(5), pp.466-470.
Davis Associates Limited, Wyllyotts Place, Potters Bar (2003), Managing large
events and perturbations at stations, Rail Safety and Standards Board.
Evergreen House. 160 Euston Road. London.
Legion Limited (2005), Legion Studio 2006 EP2 Help, London, England.
Shi, J. G. (2007), Research on pedestrian traffic characteristics in special events.
(in Chinese) Beijing University of Technology, Beijing.
Wu J. R. (2004), Transportation system simulation and application (in Chinese),
Tongji University Press, Shanghai, China.
Wu, Y. Y., Wei, Z.H., Rong, J., and Liu, X.M., (to be published). “Study on transit
assignment in special event.” Journal of Beijing University of Technology,
Beijing.
The 29th Olympic Games Organization Committee (2008), Olympic games
competition schedule (Version 2.07), Beijing, China.
The 29th Olympic Games Organization Committee (2008), Location of Olympic
venues in Beijing. http://www.beijing2008.cn/venues/. Accessed July 2009.
The 29th Olympic Games Organization Committee for the Ministry of
Transportation (2008), Olympic venues and the Olympic central area
walking in public areas flow simulation(in Chinese), Beijing, China.
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A Signal Timing Method for Bicycles at Vehicle-bicycle Mixed Intersections

Chun-yan LIANG1 and Tian-jun FENG2

1
Traffic Science and Engineering Department of Jilin Architecture and Civil
Engineering Institute, lecturer, doctor, 130021, Jilin province and Changchun city,
Hongqi Street 1129, PH (86-431-85935031), Email: lcy9716@sohu.com
2
Traffic Science and Engineering Department of Jilin Architecture and Civil
Engineering Institute, lecturer, master, 130021, Jilin province and Changchun city,
Hongqi Street 1129, PH (86-431-85935031), Email: fengtianjun2009@sina.com

ABSTRACT
To improve operation efficiency, the signal timing method for bicycle is
studied at the intersection with the larger bicycle traffic flow based on the
vehicle-bicycle conflict analysis with different flow direction. From the view of an
overlap phase, the early end of green time for bicycle traffic flow is demarcated.
Taking bicycle traffic flow as the key flow, the critical value is determined and then the
signal timing parameters are calculated. Using the signal timing method, the
vehicle-bicycle conflict can be lessened and even avoided. The delay of bicycle traffic
flow is decreased and operation efficiency of the intersection is increased.

INTRODUCTION
At present, vehicle flow is made as critical flow in signal timing of all signal
control intersections. The vehicle traffic flow parameters are taken as the basis for the
signal timing plan even in developing countries with the larger volume of bicycle. The
bicycle is viewed as an effect factor to modify the method and parameters of signal
timing (Milazzo, 1997). In the intersection with larger bicycle volume, vehicle with
the less volume is considered under the signal timing plan and the operational state of
bicycle traffic flow which volume is far more than the vehicle is not considered. This is
a disadvantage to the overall intersection operational efficiency (Zheng, 2005).
When the bicycle volumes are high, vehicle-bicycle conflict is significant at
the intersection with the signal timing plan according to the vehicle traffic flow. The
conflicts between different directional vehicles and bicycles of an adjacent phase are
more prominent especially when phase changing. Otherwise, the countdown device
used at signal control intersection makes some drivers accelerate to forcibly pass
through the intersection or earlier start to enter intersection (Wang, 2006). The severity
of the conflict is aggravated and the incident could even happen. This type of conflict
can be avoided by prolonging green light interval time (Wachtel, 1995), but the cycle
and lost time of the phase will be increased and the capacity of the intersection
decreased. So the research on the method for bicycle signal timing is efficient for
improving utilization efficiency of road source about time and space and decreasing
even avoiding the vehicle-bicycle conflict, and then the aim of avoiding the incident is
reached.
In the research on method for bicycle signal timing, the cycle and split is
optimized by using controls including late start and early end at signal control
intersections (Jiang, 2005). In the paper, the bicycle overlap phase is researched and
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early end time of green light for bicycle is calculated, the method for signal timing and
parameters calculation model is put forward with bicycle traffic flow as critical flow.
OVERLAP PHASE
The phase crossing over signal stage is called overlap phase (Quan, 1989).
Bicycle overlap phase means that the method for early end of green light is used under
primary phase plan by operational characteristic analysis of bicycle traffic flow. The
conflict resulting from the different operational characteristic between bicycles and
vehicles can be decreased.
Early end time of green light for through bicycle
At two-phase signal control intersection, green light interval time is too short
to ensure bicycles pass through the intersection because of lower speed of bicycle.
Therefore, the bicycles could conflict with through vehicle of next phase. It means that
the bicycles cannot leave the conflict area when the through vehicles of next phase
have arrived. In order to avoid the conflict, the green light of through bicycle is
considered to end early. And then the clearing time of bicycle is a total of early end
time of green light and green light interval time.
The west approach is taken as an example. After the green light of west
approach, bicycles cannot pass through the conflict area when the vehicles from south
approach have arrived. The conflict is showed in Figure 1.

D1
D2

Figure 1. Conflict between Through Bicycle and Vehicle.

The time that is used by through bicycle of west approach to run from stop line
to conflict area is as following:
D
tb = 1 (1)
vb
Where, D1 is the distance from stop line to conflict area, m ; vb is bicycle speed, m/s.
The time that is used through vehicle of south approach to run from stop line to
conflict area is as following:
D
tm = 2 (2)
vm
Where, D2 is the distance from stop line to conflict area, m ; vm is vehicle speed, m/s.
The condition of early end time of green light for through bicycle is as
following:
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Ts ≥ t b − t m − t 0 − I (3)
Where, I is green light interval time, s ; t 0 is start lost time of vehicle, s .
Taking equation (1) and (2) into (3), then the condition of early end of green
light for through bicycle is changed as following:
D D
Ts ≥ 1 − 2 − t 0 − I (4)
vb v m
Early end of green light for left-turn bicycle
Phase sequence of left-turn bicycle is determined by different signal timing
plan. Two phases and four phases are discussed separately in the following part.
Signal control intersection with two phases
About signal control intersection with two phases, the probable conflict
between vehicles and left-turn bicycles at final green time is showed in Figure 2.
Taking the south approach as an example, the bicycle conflict with right-turn vehicle
from south approach first, the conflict point is called A. The bicycle will conflict with
through vehicle from west approach, left-turn vehicle from east approach, left-turn
vehicle from west approach and through vehicle from east approach sequentially. The
conflict point is called B, C, D, and E separately. It has conflict with right-turn vehicle
from north approach at last and the conflict point is called F.
The conflict between left-turn bicycle and right-turn vehicle is not considered
because it exists in the whole cycle under the condition that the right-turn vehicle is not
controlled by any signal. The conclusion from Figure 2 is that the conflicts between
left-turn bicycle and vehicle can be avoided if the conflict point E is avoided. It is note
that the left-turn bicycle delay resulting from right-turn vehicle must be considered
when the early end time of green light for left-turn bicycle is calculated.

Figure 2. Conflict between Left Turn Bicycle and Vehicle from Crossed
Approach.
From the foregoing, the condition of early end time of green light for left-turn
bicycle is as following:
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lEb lE m
Tl1 ≥ + nt m × d t m + n r m × d r m −
− t0 − I (5)
vb vm
Where, Tl1 is early end time of green light for left-turn bicycle, s ; l Eb is the running
distance of left-turn bicycle from stop-line to conflict point E , m ; ntm is the number of
through vehicle conflicting with left-turn bicycle, veh , d t m is the delay of through
bicycle resulting from a through vehicle, s / veh ; n r m is the number of right-turn
vehicle conflicting with left-turn bicycle, veh ; d r m is the delay of left-turn bicycle
resulting from a through vehicle, s / veh ; l E m is the running distance of through
vehicle from stop-line to conflict point E , m ; the means of other parameters are as
same as above.
Signal control intersection with four phases
About signal controlled intersections with four phases, left-turn bicycles use
the same phase with left-turn vehicle at the same approach. Left-turn bicycle will
conflict with through vehicle from different direction in the process of phase changing
because of different phase sequence. So, early end time of green light for left-turn
bicycle is different.
(1) Through first and left-turn secondly
When the bicycle pass through first and then turn left secondly, the left-turn
bicycles will conflict with through vehicles of next phase from crossing approaches.
The conflict is showed in Figure 2 (the points B and E). The delays of left-turn bicycle
resulting from right-turn vehicles can be considered using the same concept.
The south approach is still taken as an example. The conflict point B must be
eliminated if the conflict point E have been avoided. So the condition of early end time
of green light for left-turn bicycle is as following:
l l
Tl 2 ≥ Eb + nr m × d r m − Em − t o − I (6)
vb vm
Where, Tl 2 is early end time of green light for left-turn bicycle, s ; l Eb is the running
distance of left-turn bicycle from stop-line to conflict point E, m ; l Em is the running
distance of through vehicle from stop-line to conflict point E, m ; the means of other
parameters are as same as above.
(2) Left-turn first and through secondly
When the bicycle turn left first and through secondly, the left-turn bicycle will
conflict with the through vehicles of next phase from both directions. The conflict is
showed in Figure 3.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1241
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Figure 3. Conflict between Left Turn Bicycle and Vehicle from the Same
Approach.
Taking the south approach as an example still, the conflict point between
left-turn bicycle and through vehicle from outermost lane of south approach is called
D and north approach is called C. The conflict points D must not exist if the conflict
point C has been avoided. So the condition of early end time of green light for left-turn
bicycle is as following:
lC b lC m
Tl 3 ≥ + nr m × d r m − − t0 − I (7)
vb vm
Where, Tl 3 is early end time of green light for left-turn bicycle, s ; lC b is the running
distance of left-turn bicycle from stop-line to the conflict point C, m ; l C m is the
running distance of through vehicle from stop-line to the conflict point C, m ; the
means of other parameters are as same as above.
From the above discussions, the conclusion can been obtained that the theory
for early end time of green light for left-turn bicycle is the same for the different phases
and phase sequences, about through and left-turn bicycle and about two and four
phases signal controlled intersection. The speed of bicycle and vehicle and the start
lost time of vehicle are considered as a fixed value. Determination of the conflict point
is so important that the distance from stop line to conflict point can be obtained
accurately.
Signal timing method
In the peak hours, the bicycle volume is so large that it is several times to
off-peak hours (Ding et al., 2001). When the volume of bicycle is obviously larger than
vehicle volume, the signal timing plan according to the vehicle traffic flow will result
in decreasing capacity, increasing vehicle-bicycle conflict and the delay at the
intersection because of different operational characteristic between bicycles and
vehicles. In this situation, the signal timing plan is designed with the bicycle flow as
critical flow, which can meet mixed traffic condition better. The vehicles pass through
the intersection following with the same direction bicycles. There are two key
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1242
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problems, one is the judgment basis of making bicycle or vehicle flow as critical flow,
the other is the method for signal timing and the calculation of timing parameters.
Determination of critical flow
Under the signal timing plan with the vehicle as critical flow, the bicycles
cannot pass through the intersection in one green light phase when bicycle volume is
larger. So the quadric queue is happened, so some cyclists probably speed up to pass
through the intersection. The conflict is so frequent that the incident is produced. So
the entire dissipation time of queue is considered as choosing basis of critical flow for
signal timing.
The entire dissipation time of vehicle queue is as following:
qm r
tm = (8)
S m − qm
Where, t m is the dissipation time of vehicle queue, s ; r is the length of red light,
s ; q m is the volume of vehicle, veh / h ; S m is saturated volume of vehicle, veh / h .
The calculation of entire dissipation time of bicycle queue is same as vehicle:
qb r
tb = (9)
S b − qb
When t m = t b , it is critical condition for choosing critical flow of signal timing.
Then the following equation can be obtained.
qb q m
= (10)
Sb S m
The same as vehicle, the flow rate of bicycle is defined that is the rate of the
bicycle volume ( qb ) to its saturated ( S b ), namely yb = qb S b . And then the equation
(10) can be changed as following:
yb = y m (11)
Where, y m is the flow rate of vehicle.
The bicycle is considered as critical flow for signal timing plan when y b > y m ,
otherwise, the vehicle is considered as critical flow.
Calculation of signal timing parameters
The designation theory and method for timing plan is perfect with vehicle as
critical flow. There is no argument any more. The calculation method of timing
parameters with bicycle as critical flow is researched in the paper.
There is no special signal timing method for bicycle, so timing plan is designed
with the theory of vehicle after the making bicycle as critical flow. The cycle and green
light time are determined according to the entire dispersing time of the bicycle queue.
We know that the larger cycle can waste space resources and decrease the capacity at
the intersection resulting from previous research achievements. So the cycle can only
need to have the bicycle queue entirely dispersed. The two-phase is taken as an
example in the paper.
Suppose the east-west approach as phase 1, the length of green time is the max
value of entire dispersing time of bicycle queue between the east and the west
approach. Namely:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1243
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t1 = max{t bE , t bW } (12)
Where, t1 is green time length of the east-west approach, s ; t bE is entire dispersing
time of bicycle queue from the east approach, s ; t bW is entire dispersing time of
bicycle queue from the west approach, s .
Suppose the south-north approach as phase 2, the length of green time is the
max value of entire dispersing time of bicycle queue between the south and the north
approach. Namely:
t 2 = max{t bS , t bN } (13)
Where, t 2 is green time length of the south-north approach, s ; t bS is entirely
dispersing time of bicycle queue from the south approach, s ; t bN is entire dispersing
time of bicycle queue from the north approach, s .
The speed of vehicle is larger than bicycle, so bicycle traffic flow is considered
as critical flow to set green light interval time which is ensured that the bicycles
crossed the stop line can pass through the conflict area. The west approach is taken as
an example. The through bicycle from the west approach will conflict with through
bicycle of phase 2 from the south approach after the green light of phased 1. The
conflict is showed in figure 4.

l1
l2

Figure 4. Conflict of Through Bicycle at Intersection.

The green light interval time changing from phase 1 to 2 is as following:
l l
I EW = 1 − 2 + tbs (14)
vb vb
Where, I EW is green light interval time, s ; vb is the speed of bicycle passing through
the intersection, m / s ; l1 , l2 is the distance from stop line to conflict point (it is
showed in Fig.5 ), m ; tbs is the safe time length of two bicycle through the same
conflict area one after the other, s .
The green light interval time changing from phase 2 to 1 is calculated with the
same theory. The interval time is defined as I SN . The cycle of two-phase control
intersection is as following:
C0 = t1 + t2 + I EW + I SN (15)
The lost time of bicycle is nearly zero because of its larger start speed. The
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1244
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efficient green time is considered approximately as the display green time. The display
green time of the east-west approach is entire dissipation time of bicycle queue, g1 = t1 ,
and the split is λ1 = t1 / C0 . With the same theory, the south-north approach is g 2 = t2 ,
and the split is λ2 = t 2 / C0 .
CONCLUSION
The signal timing method of bicycle is researched including overlap phase and
taking bicycle traffic flow as critical flow. The determined method for early end time
of through and turn-left bicycle green light is included in the overlap phase. The early
end time of left-turn bicycle green light is discussed separately according to signal
control intersection with two and four phases. The calculation of critical value for
choosing critical flow of signal timing and calculation method for timing parameters
are researched in order to obtain the signal timing plan with bicycle flow as critical
flow. Applying the method, the conflict and delay is decreased and operational safety
at intersection is increased. The signal timing theory is enriched with the conclusion
from the paper.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Supported by the Youth Science Foundation of Jilin Architecture and Civil
Engineering Institute (J20091077, J20091074)
REFERENCE
Ding, J. M., and Wang, K. C. (2001). “Analysis of typical traffic control models and
discussion of mixed traffic control modeling.” Journal of Harbin University
of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 34(1), pp.119-122.
Jiang, J. L. (2005). Research on Signal Timing Parameters and Optimization Methods
of Mixed Traffic Flow, Changchun: Jilin University.
Milazzo, J. S., Rouphail, N. M., Allen, D. P., and Hummer, J. E. (1997). “Proposed
revisions to Highway Capacity Manual chapter 9 pedestrian and bicycle
analysis procedures.” ASCE , Proceedings of the 1997 Conference on Traffic
Congestion and Traffic Safety in the 21st Century, pp.528-534.
Quan, Y.S. (1989). Urban transportation control, Peking: People's Communications
Press.
Wachtel, A., Forester, J., and Pelz, D. (1995). “Signal clearance timing for bicyclists.”
ITE Journal, 65(3), pp.0162-8178.
Wang, Y., Yang, X. G. (2006). “Discussion on setting traffic signals with counting
down display unit at intersection based on traffic safety.” China Safety
Science Journal, 16(3), pp.55-59.
Zheng, C. J., and Wang, W. (2005). “Design of Timing Optimization under the Mixed
Traffic Flow in Signal Intersection.” Journal of Highway and Transportation
Research and Development, 22(4), pp.116-119.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1245
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Evaluation of Expressway Service Systems Based on the Matter Element

Extension Model

Xiaowei LI1, Hong CHEN2, Meng XUE3, and Yongna LIU4

1
Key Laboratory for Special Area Expressway Engineering Ministry of Education,
Chang’an University, Xi’an, China, 710064; PH (86) 29- 82334886; FAX (86)
29-82334886; email: 185381729@qq.com
2
Key Laboratory for Special Area Expressway Engineering Ministry of Education,
Chang’an University, Xi’an, China, 710064; PH (86) 29- 82334886; FAX (86)
29-82334886; email: ch-hong@163.com
3
Key Laboratory for Special Area Expressway Engineering Ministry of Education,
Chang’an University, Xi’an, China, 710064; PH (86) 29- 82334886; FAX (86)
29-82334886; email: 493562426@qq.com
4
Key Laboratory for Special Area Expressway Engineering Ministry of Education,
Chang’an University, Xi’an, China, 710064; PH (86) 29- 82334886; FAX (86)
29-82334886; email: 510251204@qq.com

ABSTRACT
In order to accurately reflect the situation of expressway service, the paper
establishes an index system about expressway service on the bases of systematically
analyzing the connotation and components of the expressway service system with the
principle of feasibility, science, practicability, comparability and combining quality
with quantity, and sets up a matter element extension model to evaluate service
system. This model describes the degree of expressway service conditions with
quantitative value. The application of extension set and correlation functions makes
the evaluation more subtle. The example of the model for expressway from Xian to
Lin-Tong shows that the model can make the expressway service evaluation with
great accuracy, reflect a comprehensive level of the expressway service completely,
and is of good maneuverability, feasibility and practicability.

INTRODUCTION
After 20 years of construction and development, China has made great
achievements with expressways. With the continuous improvement of people's living
standards and the development of modern service industry, people have put higher
requirements about the expressway service. For a long time, technical workers have
seldom conducted such research problems as "what should be included in
expressway service? How to evaluate the service degrees? What aspects should be
adopted for the service degree evaluation, and how to evaluate it?" Therefore, this
paper analyzes the definition and elements of expressway service system in the
aspect of the main facility systems, ancillary facility systems, management systems,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1246
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and environmental systems. As the expressway system has a complex nature, and
involves a wide range, with many evaluation indexes, and different evaluation
indexes has different ranges, the application of conventional means and methods
cannot get rid of the randomness of the evaluation process, subjective uncertainty
and ambiguity of experts in practice (Zhang et al., 2007). It is difficult to get a
satisfactory evaluation result for the whole system. Therefore, the paper applies
matter-element theory, extension set theory and correlation function to make
comprehensive evaluation for expressway service systems.
CONTRUCTION OF EVALUATION INDEX SYSTEMS
Expressway service is an economic behavior, which is decided jointly by
expressway managers, expressway operators, expressway users, and is interacted by
factors of expressway facility, environment, management, and vehicles.
Characteristics of multi-agencies and multi-factors of the systems make servicing
systems complex. Expressway service systems is a subsystem of transportation and is
a complex system involving stations and vehicle systems, management, information,
legal regulations, users and so on. With the continuous improvement of living
standards for people, expressway activities are frequent, and expressway services
have taken place resulting in new changes in the course of transportation form
traditional industry to modern service industry in China. Therefore, the paper
researches expressway service system under the large-scale systems of the economic
and social development, delimits expressway service system as a collection of
various elements providing high value and high-level production and life services for
people and goods relying on modern technology and service method on the
expressway.
Expressway service system includes hardware service and software service (Mu,
2006), and can be divided into main facility system, ancillary facility system,
management system, environment system for movement of people and goods.
Because each subsystem has many factors, some factors may be interrelated, and it is
difficult to obtain accurate data, which will result in decline of stability about
comprehensive evaluation model and affect the accuracy (Chen et al., 2008).
Therefore, the paper establishes evaluation index systems about expressway service
on the bases of principles of feasibility, science, practicability, comparability in the
situation of not affecting the basic structure of expressway service system on the base
of connotation and components of expressway service system.
MATTER ELEMENT EXTENSION MODEL
Matter-element extension model (Cai et al., 2003) was firstly put forward by
Professor Cai Wen. It is a method solving the contradiction. We can describe objects
with several features. Features are signified as C1 , C 2 ...C n , and corresponding value

are signified as V1 , V2 ,...Vn .

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1247
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Expressway service system

Main facility system Ancillary facility system
horizontal curve condition sign and marking condition
longitudinal slope condition safety facility condition
expressway sight condition service facility condition
SFC
coordination of curve
international roughness index
Management system Environment system
emergency incident response index air condition
casualty rat traffic noise condition
operating speed
expressway landscape condition
customer satisfaction index
information release condition index
average waiting time for toll station
rate of consumer complaints resolved
Figure1. Expressway service evaluating system.
 N p C1 V1   R1 
 C2 V2   R2 
= R = 
   
   
 Cn Vn   Rn 
R is n-dimensional matter-element, which is signified as (N, V, C).
Fix of Classical Fields and Range
According to evaluation index of expressway service system, classical fields
(Cai, 2008) of which can be established as follows:
N N 01 N 02  N 0m 
R0 =  0
 C V01 V02  V0 n 

 N0 N 01 N 02  N0m 
C a011 , b011 a012 , b012  a01m , b01m 
=  1 
 C2 a021 , b021 a022 , b022  a02 m , b02 m 
 
      
 Cn a0 n1 , b0 n1 a0 n 2 , b0 n 2  a0 nm , b0 nm 
 

N0 N 01 N 02  N0m 
C a011 , b011 a012 , b012  a01m , b01m 
 1 
=  C2 a021 , b021 a022 , b022  a02 m , b02 m 
 
      
 Cn a0 n1 , b0 n1 a0 n 2 , b0 n 2  a0 nm , b0 nm 
 
R0 means matter-element. N0 means the collection. N0j means grade j. Ci means
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1248
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index i. (V0ij)n×m means range of Ci.

 N p C1 V p 2   N p C1 a p1 , bp1 
 
 C2 V p 2  
R p = (N p , C ,V p ) = 
C2 a p 2 , bp 2 
=
      
   
 Cn V pn  
 Cn a pn , bpn 

Rp means the matter-element of expressway service. N0 means the whole. Vpi means
range of Ci.
Fixing on Index Weight for Evaluation
Index weight reflects the importance of every index, and it is very important to
measure the accuracy of evaluation. The paper applies AHP to determine the weight
of each index. The specific steps can be referred in document 5.
n
Weight is signified as: α = (α 1 , α 2 , , α n ), 且∑ α k = 1
k =1

Fixing on Correlation Value of Every Service Level

①calculating correlative function value
− ρ (Vi , Vij )
K j (Vi ) = [
Vi ∈ aij , bij ] （1）
Vij

 ρ (Vi ,Vij )
 ρ (V ,V ) − ρ (V ,V ) , ρ (Vi ,V pi ) ≠ ρ (Vi ,Vij )
K j (Vi ) =  i pi i ij
[
Vi ∉ aij , bij ] （2）
− ρ (V ,V ) − 1, ρ (V ,V ) = ρ (V ,V )
 i ij i pi i ij

ρ (Vi , Vij ) = vi −
1
2
( 1
) (
aij + bij − bi j − aij
2
)
ρ (Vi , V pi ) = vi −
1
2
( 1
2
)
a pi + b pi − (b pi − a pi )

K j (Vi ) means degree of i closing to j for expressway service system.

n
K j ( p ) = ∑ α i K j (Vi ) （3）
i =1

K j ( p ) means correlative degree of j for expressway service system.

Comprehensive Assessment Of Expressway Service

If K j0 ( p ) = max K j ( p ) , then we can judge P belonging to J 0 .If K j ( p ) ≤ 0 , we

should re-adjust parameters and index weight, and then repeat the above steps.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1249
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Application of the following formula can determine degree of J 0 for

expressway service.
K j ( p ) − min K j ( p )
K j ( p) =
j
（4）
max K j ( p ) − min K j ( p )
j j

∑ j∗K
j =1
j ( p)
j∗ = m
（5）
∑Kj =1
j ( p)

j ∗ means the developing level of expressway service.

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH
This paper takes expressway from Xian to Lin-Tong as the example. According
to the principle of typicality, extensiveness and comprehensiveness, combining with
survey data, we can apply the evaluation system and model to evaluate expressway
service system proposed in this paper. Then we can examine the model.
Construction Of Evaluation Index System
The paper applies AHP to determine weights and establishes evaluation system,
which is shown in table 1.
Table1. Evaluation Index System on Expressway Service System.
Evaluation
Sub-system Index Weight
value
[C1] horizontal curve
2
condition /% 0.0577
[C2] longitudinal slope
4
Main condition /% 0.0115
Facility [C3] expressway sight
5
condition /% 0.0459
system B1
[C4] SFC 42 0.012
[C5] coordination of curve /% 82 0.0253
[C6]international roughness
4.2
index / (m / km) 0.0088
[C7] signs and markings
95
Ancillary condition /% 0.1741
Facility [C8] safety facility condition
98
/% 0.0958
system B2
[C9] service facility condition
75 0.0527
/%
Management [C10] emergency incident 82 0.0341
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1250
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system response index /%

[C11] casualty rate / (person /
B3 4 0.1106
100 million vehicle km)
[C12] operating speed / (km /
60 0.1116
h)
[C13] customer satisfaction
90 0.0295
index /%
[C14] information release
75 0.0271
condition index /%
[C15] average waiting time
40 0.0476
for toll station / s
[C16] rate of consumer
95 0.1236
complaints resolved /%
[C17] air condition /% 82 0.0046
Environment [C18] traffic noise condition
85 0.0092
/%
System B4
1 [C19] expressway landscape
86 0.0185
ndition /%

Table 2. Classical Range and Node Range.

Excellent Good General Less poor Poor node range
izontal curve condition /% <0,1> <1,3> <3,5> <5,10> <10,15> <0,15>
gitudinal slope condition /% <0,1> <1,3> <3,5> <5,10> <10,15> <0,15>
ressway sight condition /% <0,1> <1,3> <3,5> <5,10> <10,15> <0,15>
C <50,80> <40,50> <30,40> <20,30> <0,20> <0,80>
coordination of curve /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>
/ (m / km) <0,4> <4,6> <6,8> <8,10> <10,20> <0,20>
ns and markings condition /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>
ety facility condition /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>
vice facility condition /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>
mergency incident response index /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>
sualty rate / (person / 100 million vehicle km) <0,5> <5,10> <10,15> <15,25> <25,30> <0,30>
erating speed / (km / h) <74,80> <66,74> <60,66> <48,60> <0,48> <0,80>
stomer satisfaction index /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>
formation release condition index /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>
e average waiting time for toll station / s <0,30> <30,50> <50,70> <70,100> <100,120> <0,120>
he rate of consumer complaints resolved /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>
condition /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>
ffic noise condition /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>
xpressway scenic index /% <90,100> <80,90> <70,80> <60,70> <0,60> <0,100>

Fix of Correlation Value of Every Service Level

According to the formula, we can calculate the value of correlation functions for
the expressway service system.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1251
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Table 3. Correlative Function Value of Indexes.

Correlative value
Grade
Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ
Indicators
C1 -0.333 0.5 -0.333 -0.6 -0.8
C2 -0.429 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.6
C3 -0.444 -0.286 0 0 -0.5
C4 -0.174 0.2 -0.05 -0.24 -0.367
C5 -0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.55
C6 -0.045 0.1 -0.3 -0.475 -0.58
C7 0.5 -0.5 -0.75 -0.83 -0.875
C8 0.2 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9333 -0.95
C9 -0.5 -0.1666 0.5 -0.1666 -0.375
C10 -0.308 0.125 -0.1 -0.4 -0.55
C11 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7333 -0.84
C12 -0.412 -0.231 0 0 -0.375
C13 0 0 -0.5 -0.666 -0.75
C14 -0.375 -0.167 0.5 -0.167 -0.375
C15 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.429 -0.6
C16 0.5 -0.5 -0.75 -0.8333 -0.875
C17 -0.308 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.55
C18 -0.25 0.5 -0.25 -0.5 -0.625
C19 -0.222 0.4 -0.3 -0.5333 -0.65
Comprehensive value 0.021568 -0.22395 -0.39371 -0.56049 -0.70535

Comprehensive Assessment Of Expressway Service

①C alculating correlative value
According to the formula (3), every correlative value of level is calculated in
Table 4.
Table 4. Correlative Value of Level.
K1(P) K2(P) K3(P) K4(P) K5(P)
0.0216 -0.224 -0.394 -0.560 -0.705

②Calculating K j ( p )

According to the formula (4), K j ( p ) is calculated in table 5.

Table 5. Correlative Value of Indexes.

K1 ( p ) K 2 ( p) K 3 ( p) K 4 ( p) K 5( p )
1 0.662 0.429 0.200 0

According to the formula (5), j ∗ is calculated as follows.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1252
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∑ j∗K
j =1
j ( p)
j∗ = m
=1.925
∑Kj =1
j ( p)

As it can be seen from table 4, the max correlative value of level is 0.0216.
Through the formula j ∗ = 1.925, we can understand that the current service quality of
expressway from Xian to lin-tong is in good condition, and the extent is prone to the
general situation. So it requires traffic departments to make greater efforts to
maintain good conditions. Service quality is a dynamic process, whose targets are
also dynamics (Liu et al., 2007). We should adjust the service quality on the base of
the need.
CONCLUSIONS
(1) In the course of transformation from traditional industry to modern service
industry, research on expressway service quality is very essential. This paper
establishes evaluation index of expressway service system in the aspect of main
facility, ancillary facility, management systems, environment systems on the bases of
components and content of Expressway Service Systems. The evaluation index
system can reflect the level of expressway service system comprehensively. It has a
great theoretical value and practical significance in improving expressways service
quality at this stage.
(2) In this paper, we establish the extension matter-element evaluation model
of expressway service system, combining the expressway service’s systematic and
complexity. The model can not only reflect the service quality comprehensively, but
also could reflect the trend of its development, and thus give warning.
(3)The examples demonstrate the rationality of index system for expressway
service system and the practicability, feasibility and practicality of Matter-element
extension model proposed in this paper.
REFERENCES
Cai, W., Yang, C., and Y, H. (2003). “Preliminary extension logic.” Beijing: Science
Press, 2003.
Chen, B., Shi, B., and Lei, M. (2008). “Expressway safety evaluation systems based
on matter-element model.” Joural of Chang'an University, 2008.
10(4):20-24.
Liu, J., Wang, W., and Chen, L. (2007). “Evaluation of urban traffic sustainable
developement based on pressure-state-response and composite
matter-element and extension method.” Jouranl of Expressway and
Transportation Research and Development, 2007. 24(10):136-141.
MU, Y. “Research on road transportation service systems of shanxi
province.” Chang'an University.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1253
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W, Cai. (2008). “Extension set and extension data mining.” Beijing : Science Press,
2008.
Zhang, S., and Zhou, W. (2007). “Research on the cmprehensive evaluation method
of expressway construction by neural network.” China : China Journal of
Expressway and Transportation, 2007. 14(4):91-95.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1254
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Development of a Road Weather Information System for Mountain

Expressways

Jianping GAO1, Boming TANG2, Haiying LI3, Min LIU4 and Chuandong GAO5

1
Professor, Dean of Road Engineering, School of Civil & Architecture, Chongqing Jiaotong Uni.,
66#,Xuefu Ave., Chongqing, 400074, China; PH: (86)(23)62652960; Mobil:13637901962;
e-mail: Jianping@cquc.edu.cn
2
Professor, President of Chongqing Jiaotong Uni., 66#,Xuefu Ave., Chongqing, 400074, China;
e-mail: tbm@netease.net
3
Engineer, Vice President of Chongqing Expressway Group Co., Ltd. 66#, Yinshan Ave.,
Chongqing, 401121, China; e-mail: 89081963lhy@163.com
4
Master degree student, School of Civil & Architecture, Chongqing Jiaotong Uni.; e-mail:
lm5261@126.com
5
Lecturer, School of Civil & Architecture, Chongqing Jiaotong Uni.; e-mail: hngcd@163.com

ABSTRACT
Adverse weather greatly impacts the safety and mobility of freeway network.
Timely and accurate weather and traffic management information will provide
reference for drivers’ options of going out and driving behavior, relying upon
Chongqing expressway network, and based on the analysis of the managing
requirements of three levels management system, namely Chongqing expressway
network center, the regional center and the project center as well as drivers’ traveling
demand. From various aspects, like management system structure, operation process,
classification and ascertainment of road network management, build of road net
model, information dissemination decision-making and placing optimization of
variable message signs etc, it puts forward the specific objectives of this system of
Chongqing expressway network, the system architecture, the level of information
dissemination and the message databases, develops an application software and
achieves desired performance of its use in actual projects.

INTRODUCTION
Expressway network adverse weather information system (FNAWIS) in a
mountainous region is an integrated information system which coordinates and
manages the expressway network combined by mountain expressways within a
certain region and part of those adjacent arterial highways under adverse weather.
Through information collection facilities setting in the expressway network, the
system collects real-time traffic information as well as weather and environmental
information, transmits them to the information processing center for analyzing to
produce information dissemination alternatives of expressway projects and network,
and inform drivers timely through information publishing devices, such as dynamic
message sign (DMS), variable speed limit sign (VSLS), highway advisory radio
(HAR), etc. so that they can get the relevant information in advance and take
appropriate measures such as bypassing, deceleration, etc.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1255
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EXITING CONDITION ANALYSIS

By the diversity of mountain terrain, weather along highways has a diverse
climate, regional climate differences are significant features, adverse weather such as
fog, heavy rain, snow, frost occurs frequently, which have a significant impact on
expressway safety and mobility. Combined with the complicate alignment, this
influence is more serious.
At present, most of China's mountain expressway information systems are not
perfect, such as shortage of environmental sensor stations, unsuitable setting
locations of information dissemination equipment with relatively less quantity etc.
Decentralized management of various road sections makes it impossible to share
weather and traffic management information with each other since drivers cannot be
informed of the weather and traffic conditions that cause very common traffic
congestion when inclement weather occurs.
The expressway network adverse weather information system can reach the goal
of information sharing and publishing at a network level, and provide drivers with
more timely and effectively information about weather, traffic condition and others
and to take appropriate behaviors, thus, reduce accidents and prompt mobility.
GOALS FOR EXPRESSWAY NETWORK ADVERSE WEATHER
INFORMATION SYSTEM
A single expressway project
The project-level information center is to achieve timely and accurate data
collection, and rapid and effective response to the weather event. On the existing
basis strengthen the weather and traffic monitoring system development, to make the
information dissemination decision-making more accurate, timely and effective.
Once adverse weather occurs, it can be detected in time, and decision on information
publishing can be reached rapidly, thus relevant information being released in time.
Expressway network
The network-level information center is to achieve information sharing and
networking Release. If an expressway section in the area is stricken by hazardous
weather, the management of the section should upload relevant monitoring data
about weather, road conditions, traffic volume, etc. to the expressway network
information center while carrying out the information publishing decision. After a
comprehensive analysis of the real-time situation of sections around the given section
within the expressway network, the expressway network information center will
come to a network information publishing decision and send it to neighboring
sections, thus effectively achieving guidance and optimization of expressway
network traffic flow.
STRUCTURE OF CHONGQING EXPRESSWAY NETWORK ADVERSE
WEATHER INFORMATION SYSTEM
Management system
The Chongqing FNAWIS applies a three-level management hierarchy: Top
center, regional information centers, and project information centers, named one top
center, three regional centers and eight expressway project centers. The management
hierarchy of information publishing system for Chongqing expressway network is as
shown in Figure 1.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1256
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Chongqing NAWIS center

Northeast Midwest Southeast

Chongqing Chongqing Chongqing
RAWIS center RAWIS center RAWIS center

G65(to G50(to G75(to G93(to G65(to G75(to

Baotou) Shanghai) Lanzhou) Chengdu) Maoming Haikou)
PAWIS PAWIS PAWIS PAWIS )PAWIS PAWIS
Center Center Center Centers Center Center

G85(to Kunming)
PAWIS Center
Figure 1. Structure of Chongqing Expressway Network Information
System.
The management system is marked by being connected vertically and
horizontally obstructed by the upper adjacent units. The units at adjacent upper and
lower levels have interactive competence, while those at the same level cannot
directly interact but interact only indirectly, that is, coordinating with the units at the
upper level.
Under normal circumstances, project information centers are responsible for
information dissemination of their respective sections as well as the direct
management of the field equipment along expressways of the section. Regional
information centers do not directly manage the field equipment along expressways of
the section, but formulate network information publishing decisions for each section
information center and guide them to disseminate cross-section network information,
according to the real situation ( of weather, traffic, and so on) of expressway network.
The head center takes charge of the coordination control of cross-regional network
information publishing. In addition, section centers can acquire real-time information
of other sections through regional centers in order to adjust the information
publishing decisions of their own sections.
System Composition
Network adverse weather information center
Network adverse weather information (NAWIS) center is the top-level
institution of the network information publishing system, and it will monitor the
overall real-time situation of the entire expressway network to coordinate and guide
cross-regional network information publishing and take charge of issuing real-time
weather, traffic and road conditions of the expressway network to the community
through public information publishing channels.
Regional adverse weather information centers
As an essential part of network information publishing system, regional adverse
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1257
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weather information (RAWIS) center gathers real-time information of all projects

within the region together and coordinates various sections to realize cross-section
network information publishing by analysis processing of that information from the
perspective of expressway network.
Expressway project adverse weather information center
A project adverse weather information (PAWIS) center is not only responsible
for the real-time monitoring of diverse weather of its sections, but for the formulation
and implementation of section information publishing program as well as
implementation of network information publishing program.
Field equipment
Field electric equipment includes environmental sensor stations ESS）, dynamic
message sign (DMS), changeable speed limit sign (CSLS), highway advisory radio
(HAR) etc.
Operation flow of the system
Operation flow of the system is as shown in Figure 2.
Classification and definition of expressway network
According to the different monitoring and management range, expressway
network can be classified into two categories: corridor type and net-type. In the
process of managing and monitoring, networks with an expressway as the
passageway and the rest of highways as the auxiliary network are defined as the
passage type, while those with all expressways as units of the same weight belong to
the net-type. Strictly speaking, there is no essential difference of the two types. It is
the managers that decide what management strategy to choose according to the
practical needs and make the corresponding classification of the expressway network.
So the network type will alternate with the change of management strategy. Based on
its distribution features and the management hierarchy of expressway information
publishing system, for each of Chongqing expressways, it may fall into passage type,
and the whole expressway network may as a net-type, as shown in Figure 3.
Expressway network model
Expressway network adverse weather information publishing system covers a
wide area and a large amount of expressway sections, so a scientific model can
ensure the publishing system operating effectively and accurately.
Classification of Management Units
Management units (MU) are the basic implementing units of all decisions in the
highway network information system and objects of decision analysis.
According to the special applicability of mountain expressway network
information publishing system under adverse weather, three principles of
management unit classifications are brought forward as follows:
(1) The uniqueness of management unit signs and regularity conforming to the
information publishing management.
(2) Ensure the practical rationality of the system information publishing
decision-making.
(3) The feasibility of information publishing equipment setting within units.
Interchange serves as the traffic diversion point of expressway and to provide
diverse opportunities to leave or continue on the expressway when adverse weather
happened ahead, and meanwhile it can help managers locate incidents as soon as
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1258
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possible. Special sections refer to those road segments where common catastrophic
weather occurs and lead to accidents more easily. With the starting points of those
sections as dividing nodes, the timeliness of finding incidents and the accuracy of
information publishing decisions can be further improved.

PAWIS Centers Field information

publishing facilities
Monitoring of Disaster Weather,
DMS, VSLS, HAR.
Information decision making

Weather, traffic and road condition

data collection

RAWIS Center NAWIS Center

Analysis traffic and weather condition Make decision of cross- section
of the regional road network. information release.
Make decision of cross- expressway Release information through
information publishing. public information channels.

PAWIS Centers Public information

of periphery freeways publishing channels

Carry out networking Internet, Radio, Television,

information release decision Mobile phones, etc.

Figure 2. Operational Procedures of Networking Information Release System.

to

(to
u)
5

L a G 75
C

G6
oto
he

G75(to Lanzhou)
nz
ng

PAWIS center
Ba

ho
d

u)
u

( to

G65(to Baotou) G50 Northeast Chongqing

G93(to Chengdu) PAWIS center
G9

PAWIS center (to RAWIS center

Sha
3

ngh
ai )
Midwest Chongqing G50(to Shanghai)
RAWIS center PAWIS center
ChongQing
G5001
NAWIS center G5001 PAWIS center
to Kun G85
ming

G85(to Kunming) G65（to Maoming) Southeast Chongqing

)
PAWIS center ng RAWIS center
mi
PAWIS center
o
G65 Ma
u
3

(to
gd
G9
en

G75 NAWIS center

Ch

G75(to Haikou)
PAWIS center RAWIS center
to

to
Ha

PAWIS center
iko

Freeway
u
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1259
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Figure 3. Chongqing Expressway Network Diagram.

Expressway Network Model
Expressway network information system models can be divided into three levels:
the macro-management level, unit management level, and equipment level.
Models at macro-management level support rapid search of the unit where an
incident occurs and the decision implementing units. Therefore, this level contains
only the necessary management units, such as road sections and interchanges,
regardless of distinguishing upstream and downstream lanes, ramps, and other
structure in more details.
Models at unit management level primarily serve for the following functions:
re-distribution of the information publishing decision, posting all the details to
corresponding detail positions of each management unit, such as certain ramp of an
interchange, the upper lane or lower lane of a section. Details components (including
ramps, toll gates etc.) of each management unit are covered by this level.
Equipment level is constructed by laying information acquisition equipment and
publishing facilities on the model foundation at the unit management level according
to their locations. Accurate determination of incidents’ location and information
publishing can be finished through this level.
Optimized placement of dynamic message sign (DMS)
In the expressway network adverse weather information publishing system, the
ideal layout is to set dynamic message signs (DMS) in each interchange, service area
and special road section (accident-prone locations and disaster weather prone
sections). Taking into account of the cost and a series of issues in management, DMS
should be set at least at interchange exits of the main diversion points along the
expressway as well as in front of the interchange entrances of different expressways.
Small road-side mini-variable information panels can complement DMS at
interchange exits of other non-major diversion points, service area entrances and
places around special sections such as grand bridge and tunnel. The so-called
road-side mini-variable information panel can extend the functions of DMS, enabling
it to display the character matrix of 3×3 or 4×2. This new variable speed limit signs
can play the role of DMS to certain extent.
ADVERSE WEATHER INFORMATION DISSEMINATION
Hierarchical adverse weather information publishing model
Based on the significance and urgency, the contents of information publishing
can be divided into prompt information, advice information and mandatory
information. Due to diverse distances, destructions of different sections vary in the
event of weather disasters, usually decreasing as the distance increases. Therefore,
various types of information with different contents are required when publishing
information. The information publishing model is as shown in Figure 4.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1260
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Mandatory
message
Mandatory Advice Prompting
message message message
Incident
sections
Nearer MUs Near MUs Distant MUs

Figure 4. Hierarchy Adverse Weather Information.

Network-level adverse weather information publishing model

Network adverse weather information publishing refers to cross-segment and
cross-region interaction information publishing within the expressway network. This
model allows drivers in the approaching sections to get relevant information of the
adverse weather stricken segment in advance so that path selection beforehand will
be possible. Take Chongqing expressway network as a case. When G75 expressway
is stricken by a fog, regional information center will coordinately guide the
information center of inner ring expressway section to carry out network information
publishing under network information publishing model, posting ahead of time
prompt information concerning fog and traffic conditions of G75 expressway in
sections near the interchanges connected with it, as shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Information Publishing in Networking Mode.

Locations for adverse weather information publishing
Expressway entrances
Call drivers’ attention to the weather conditions, traffic conditions, management
information and optional route of the front section through information panel, voice
broadcasting, verbal advice of workers who collect fares, so they can bear off the
expressway or bypass when necessary.
Appropriate locations in front of the adverse weather stricken section
Release the notification of weather information, traffic conditions, information
of speed and distance control through road-side radio, variable message signs, thus
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1261
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providing warnings and traffic guidance for passing vehicles.

Expressway exits
Post information about path control, weather and traffic conditions of the front
section to drivers through variable message signs
Information publishing decision-making
Decision-making procedures
Decision-making procedures for information publishing based on expressway
network are as shown in Figure 6.
Modular decision-making
Decision-making alternatives should be formalized in shape on the assumption
of invariable contents in the light of information grading model, management of
different positions under adverse weather and the need for information publishing,
which means classifying the contents of decisions in line with implementing
positions. Refer to Table 1 for details.
SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT OF EXPRESSWAY NETWORK ADVERSE
WEATHER INFORMATION SYSTEM
Models Design
Application software is carried on from the angle of information flow based on
the above-mentioned program design for the network information system. This
system consists of two parts: section information subsystem and network information
subsystem, whose application functions and modular designs are different as shown
in Figure 7.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1262
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Table 1. Network-level Information List Under Adverse Weather.

Information Release Location
Disaster
Decision Nearer Near Distant
Weather Incident Nearer Near Distant
Level Toll Toll Toll
Types Sections Inter. Inter. Inter.
station Station station
Ⅰ PM* PM PM PM PM PM PM
SL*,A
Ⅱ SL,AM AM PM PM PM PM
Fog M*
Ⅲ SL,AM
SL,AM AM PM PM PM PM
SL,MM
SL,M
Ⅳ MM AM AM PM PM
M *
Ⅰ PM
PM PM PM PM PM PM
Ⅱ SL,AM
SL,AM AM PM PM PM PM
Rain Ⅲ SL,AM
SL,AM AM PM PM PM PM
SL,M
Ⅳ SL,AM MM AM AM PM PM
M
Ⅰ PM PM PM PM PM PM PM
Ⅱ SL,AM SL,AM AM PM PM PM PM
Snow SL,M
Ⅲ SL,AM AM PM PM PM PM
M
SL,M
Ⅳ SL,MM MM AM AM PM PM
M
Ⅰ SL,AM SL,AM AM PM PM PM PM
Ice SL,M SL,M
Ⅱ MM AM AM PM PM
M M
*PM-Prompting message, SL-speed limit, AM-Advice Message, MM-Mandatory
Message,

Real-time road weather

information collection

Macro manage-
Determine information needed for each MU
ment level

Search
Search facilities for information publishing
facilities level

Match
Match the information lists
Lists level

Edit the information lists and publish

Figure 6. Decision-making for Information Publishing Based on Network
Model.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1263
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FNAWIS

RAWIS PAWIS

Data
Data Incident Incident
Acquisition
Acquisition Detection Verify
Module Module Module
Data
Processing
Information Decision- Information
Decision publishing making Upload
Sending Module Module Module

Figure 7. Structure of NAWIS Software.

Database design
SQL Server is a large-scale relational database system developed by Microsoft,
which provides users with a safe, reliable, manageable client / server database
platform. It is fully able to meet the system’s requirements for database operations.
Therefore, expressway information publishing system database adopts SQL Server.
In addition, excluding the road weather information database, this system’s database
embodies another two parts: dynamic traffic information database and static traffic
information database which form a unified expressway network traffic information
database through data fusion.
CONCLUSION
Road weather information plays an important role in prompting expressway
safety and mobility. From the perspectives of goals for expressway network
information system set, system structure design, information dissemination strategy,
and software development etc., this paper discusses elaborately the construction of
expressway network information system, putting forward a three-grade management
hierarchy composed of information network center, regional information centers and
expressway project information centers with characteristics of vertical connection as
well as horizontal obstruction. Moreover, establishing a network model meeting the
demands of this system, it comes up with a hierarchical information publishing
model, network information network model, as well as information publishing
decision-making procedures and formalization tables. Then, on the basis of software
modules and database designed from the perspective of information flow, application
software has been developed and applied to practice successfully, achieving desired
results.
REFERENCES
Feng, M., Gu, S., and Bian, G. (2004). “Study of heavy fog monitoring and warning
system for freeway.” China Journal of Highway and Transport. 17(3),
92-97.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1264
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Fang, X., and Fang, J. (2003). “The present research & develop tendency of the
system of inspect & control of freeway.” Journal of Zhejiang Vocational and
Technical Institute of Transportation. July, 4. 1-4.
Goodwin, L. (2003). “Best practices for road weather management.”
http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather/best_practices/CaseStudiesFINALv2-RPT.p
df, May 2003.
Huang, X., Wang, X., Hu, G., and Gao, J. (2008). “Research on expressway operation
management system structure under disastrous weather.” Technology of
Highway and Transport. Aug, 4. 132-135.
Mahmassani, H., and Peeta, S. (1993). “Network performance under system optional
and user equilibrium assignments: implications for ATIS.” Paper presented
at the 72nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.
Washington D.C.
Manfredi, J. (2005). “Road weather information system environmental sensor station
siting guidelines.” Federal Freeway Administration.
Sun, J. (2009). “Networks online monitoring further development—thinking and
analysis of freeways networks online monitoring.” China ITS Journal, Feb,
2. 25-37.
Sun, W., Luo, P., and Geng, G. (2008). “Highway network information integration
system design published.” Computer Knowledge and Technology, Nov. 4(6),
1286-1288.
Yang, Z. (2008). “The study on expressway network information system served for
operating safety.” Tongji University, PhD Dissertation, Shanghai.
Yu, Q., Zhou, X., and Shi, J. (2004). “Research on design of inner-information
release and schedule system of expressway.” Highway, Sep, 9. 107-108.
Zhu. J., and Cai, G. (2005).”The study on expressway network information
publishing system of a province region.” Highway, Nov. 148-150.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1265
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System Analysis and Model Design of Highway Passenger Transport Hub

Zhi-qing ZHANG1, Yan JIA2, Yun-tong LIU3, Xiao-ming WANG4, Pei-cai

WANG5 and Jing-mei WANG6

1
The College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, P.O. Box 100124, Beijing; PH (8610) 67396590; FAX (8610) 67391509;
email: zhangzhiqing@bjut.edu.cn
2
The College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, P.O. Box 100124, Beijing; PH (8610) 67396590; FAX (8610) 67391509;
email: jiayan@emails.bjut.edu.cn
3
The College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of
Technology, P.O. Box 100124, Beijing; PH (8610) 67392103; FAX (8610) 67391980;
email: liuyuntong@vip.sina.com
4
Beijing Municipal Institute of City Planning & Design, P.O. Box 100045, Beijing;
PH (8610) 68027776; FAX (8610)68027776; email: wxm0821@yahoo.com
5
Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport, P.O. Box 100053, Beijing; PH (8610)
63032255; FAX (8610) 63012252; email: wangpeicai@bjjtw.gov.cn
6
Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport, P.O. Box 100053, Beijing; PH (8610)
63032255; FAX (8610) 63012252; email: wangjingmei@bjjtw.gov.cn

ABSTRACT
Using the National Highway transportation hub system planning of Beijing as
the background, and based on the system functions of highway transportation hubs,
this article analyzes the different operational requirements to hub systems on primary
functions for different users. Basic principles of transport system planning, system
theory and control theory will be used on putting forward a program. This program
will have multi-level hierarchical control as the oriented control work, feedback
control as the auxiliary control work and high quality service as the core. This article
establishes an overall model of highway passenger transport hub systems, and a
structure model with the organization and management, production and service,
communication and information and ancillary service of it. These methods and
models can be used as advices to other highway traffic hub systems.

INTRODUCTION
Highway transport hubs are an important node with the highest level and most
widely radiating area in the national highway transport network. It is a highway
transport station service system facing the whole society and gets a lot of basic
functions such as transport organization, transit and handling storage, intermediary
agents, communication and information, and ancillary service, (The People's
Republic of China Ministry of Transport, 2007). Highway passenger transport hubs
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1266
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are a traffic infrastructure and organization guarantee for the development of

highway passenger transport. When correctly analyzed on its system function and
rationally designed on its structural model, highway passenger transport hubs can
give full play in the transportation function. This article is based on the national
highway transportation hub system planning of Beijing. It starts from the highway
transportation hub system’s function, using system theory and control theory as the
basic principles, to build and design the structure model of the system and to instruct
the construction and management of a highway passenger hub.
ANALYSIS AND DESIGN ON HIGHWAY PASSENGER TRANSPORT HUB
Highway passenger transport hub analysis
In the highway transport network, highway transport hubs should have functions
such as transportation service, organization and management, communication and
information, and ancillary service. It is an organization center of interconnection and
interchange of multiple transport modes, and plays a leading role in the highway
transport network. Highway passenger transport hubs and general highway terminals,
as well as passenger transport distribution throughout the urban and rural form the
national highway network, should have the key features as follows, (Beijing
Municipal Committee of Communications, 2008).
1) Transport organizational function, is to organize passenger transport of the
whole society, to take charge of highway transport hub station yard, traffic and
vehicles entering and leaving, and provide services for highway transport market.
2) Transit and transfer function, is to provide facilities and services for the
passengers.
3) Communication and information function, through the computers and
communication facilities, connect with the national highway transportation hubs
outside the city, and connect with the major source distribution center inside the city.
To make highway transport hubs, railway stations and air port fields into organic
links, interrelated and make a network system of transport services, provide
passenger information services and communication services for the whole
community.
4) Ancillary service function is to provide the passenger and division passenger
necessary accommodation, shopping, entertainment, communication and other
ancillary services, and provide the transport vehicles inspection, repair, maintenance,
refueling, cleaning and other services.
Highway passenger transport hub design
According to the nature and function of highway passenger transport hubs, and
Beijing as the political and cultural center and strategic position in economic
development, a unified contact external and unified command internal should be
made when necessary. The overall design of the Beijing highway passenger transport
hub is the “three-level management” and “Four systems”, and the structural model
shown in Figure 1 for organization and management. “Three-level management”,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1267
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includes passenger hub organization and management center, passenger hub station
yard and passenger ticketing service network. “Four Systems”, includes four
subsystems of transport service, organization and management, communication and
information and ancillary services in a hub station floor. Organization and
management center organically links the Beijing highway passenger transport hub
with the external through the computer communication network. The passenger hub
station is based on the transport service system, with information systems as a mean
and an ancillary service system as the logistical support. Through the effective
functioning of the organization and management system, it achieves the overall
function of the hub. Passenger ticketing service networks are stretches and roots of
highway transport hubs into the society, they, together with the terminal fields,
constitute the highway passenger transport service network face to the whole society.
Organization and management center of

Beijing highway passenger transport hub

Transport

services
Terminal field organization and
management sub-centers

Organization
Passenger ticketing
service network

and management

Communication

and information

Ancillary

services

Figure 1. Structural Design of Passenger Hub System Model.

Highway passenger transport hub organization and management centers are the
information processing center of a highway transport hub by realizing the scheduling
command and organizational management of passenger hub station yards. This is
done through the receipt, collection, processing, output, internal and external
communications. The computer system uses a server/client network structure,
network communication system with multiple methods, and has a function to connect
with other means of communication.
TRANSPORTATION SERVICE SYSTEM DESIGN
Transportation service systems are the base of a hub for its transport function;
its physical body is transport facilities and the necessary transportation equipment of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1268
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the passenger hub station yard, (Li, 2005). The design of a transport service system is
based on the characters of highway passenger flow and the flow and the distribution
of time of Beijing. It should arrange operating frequency for vehicles participating,
determine the start time, make transport plans, organize the transport production
activities The design should also provide services for visitors such as information
asking, ticketing, waiting, ticketing and package shipping and extraction. It can also
organize the operation transport vehicles, send and receive, packaging line unloading
and the transfer of the transport procedures, and settlement costs. At the same time, it
has ability to provide the functional requirements of services for high-speed
passenger transport (rapid transit) and other special services, to meet different
requirements of passenger to hub stations. Passenger subsystem, based on modern
facilities and equipment, should aim at providing passengers with comfortable,
quality service and meeting the travel needs of passengers.
Production facilities in the passenger terminal include station square, parking
area, start area, station house (including operation space and administrative space)
and production of ancillary facilities. Operation equipments include passenger ticket
sales, waiting and break equipment, security fire-fighting equipment, radio
communication equipment, parcel handling and lifting equipment, executive office
equipment and business, services and publicity equipment.
The facilities and equipment of the passenger terminal should be installed by
referring to the industry standard of ministry of communications (JT/T200-95), and
should be adjusted as the development of passenger transport vehicles and passenger
demand.
ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM MODEL DESIGN
Organization and management system analysis
Highway passenger transport hubs are an organizational form of comprehensive
highway passenger transport and modern management. They objectively make the
traditional closed management model to change and endow it with organization,
management and operational tools with operating mechanism and tourists, and
owners and society as a whole multitude of interests. Organization and management
system model design should show qualities as follows:
1) Development requirements. Construction of a highway transport hub should
be closely linked to the development of the market economy. Thus, organization and
management system model design of the hub should be appropriate ahead of the
current management system.
2) Efficiency requirements. During the competition in the market, the passenger
station terminal must give full play to its strengths, and provide a high level of
service to meet the diverse needs of customers and owners, in order to achieve its
own economic goals.
3) Demand for integrated. Starting from the nature and function of the hub,
work should be divided on its various components in a rational way. It should make
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them mutually supportive and discharge their responsibilities, form an organic whole,
so that to maximize their transport functions.
4) Open requirements. The Passenger transport hub is a public facility for the
entire social services. Not only do they open up to transport enterprises in the city,
but also open up to vehicles of other towns, and open station and information
simultaneously. Thus, organization and management systems should be designed to
be the transport hub of information, transport market with fair competition, and
attendants for transport demand and producers.
5) Operability requirements. Organization and management systems are not
only to design operating mechanisms, but also to provide it appropriate support
means. In order to rationalize the structure of the relationship between various
aspects of the transportation market, make the system in steady state, and eventually
incorporate them into the market mechanism, government authorities should carry
out supervision and provide protection.
Organization and management system design
The system structure of the Beijing highway passenger transport hub is
composed with three levels, which are organization and management center,
passenger hub station yard and passenger ticketing service networks. In response to
this feature, by using the basic principles of systems theory and control theory, put
forward a program with multi-level hierarchical control as the oriented control work.
It should have feedback control as the auxiliary control work and high quality service
as the core, (Feng, 2009), as shown in Figure 2.
passenger transport organization and management center
Monitoring System

of Beijing highway transport hub

Capacity
Terminal

Passenger ticketing
Source service network

Transport Market

Figure 2. Model Structure of Organization and Management System Design.

Organization and management center, which is the brain of Beijing highway

passenger transport hub, is the first-class of the system. Its main tasks are
information on the receipt, collection, analysis, processing and output, and
decision-making of coordination and organization based on effective information
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1270
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analysis. It is also a body with comprehensive business and service functions.

Through the efficient information network between organization and management
center and passenger hub station yard, it must be realized that organization and
management with qualities of scientific, standardized and comprehensive in the hub,
improve transport efficiency and meeting the demand of the community. All of this is
done to optimize the transport portfolio.
A passenger hub station yard, which is the main body of a highway transport
hub, is the second-class of the system. It has a complete set of parking, repairing,
transfer, communication, information and support services and facilities, and
composes of an all-around transportation service. Each passenger hub station yard
should accept the leadership of the organization and management center, and paid
management fees and expenses paid information services.
Passenger ticketing service network, which is the antenna of highway transport
hub into community, is the third-class of the system. Its main business is the sale of
tickets of all terminals, which is the online booking. The ticketing network also
serves to provide advisory services for travelers and passenger pick-stop travel,
provide market information to the passenger terminals, and so on.
The hub monitoring system consists of two parts. One is an internal monitoring
system, which means the supervision from the high-grade level to the low-grade
level. The other one is an external monitoring system, which means the hub is
supervised by transportation management, and other departments such as industry
and commerce, public security and taxation. They should monitor the operation of
the highway transport hub, investigate and deal with illegal business, protect the
legitimate rights and interests of both supply and demand, make a protection of
government policies and the implementation of the act, and keep the healthy
development of the transport market.
COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION SYSTEM MODEL DESIGN
Communication and information system analysis
Communication and information systems are the key facilities which contact the
other three sub-systems and make highway transport hub form an organic whole. At
the same time, they are also important for realization modern management and
intelligent scheduling of a passenger hub. It should have the following
characteristics:
1) Reliability. It contains two aspects, one is that it should be an automatic
identification data collection system to correct the error function; the other one is
data transmission should be a consistency and assurance system in normal operation
under multiple fault conditions.
2) Advanced and economical. It’s important to choose a mature technology with
excellent quality, and ensure that the system has advanced technology and the best
price.
3) Easy scalability. The hardware and software technology of communication
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and information systems updates very quickly, and during operation, the amount of
information will also gradually increase. Also, a communication and information
system with good extensibility upgrade express can help avoid duplication of
investment.
4) Practicality. The system has to be targeted to meet the actual needs of the
hub.
5) Open. Public information platforms should be established for passenger
transport, and connect with other industry information platforms. This will help them
to become an important part of the information platform of the capital, in order to
meet the needs of business expansion in the future.
Communication and information system structure model design
The communication and information system of a Beijing highway passenger
transport hub is going to be designed into three levels, (Zhang, 2006). System model
structure is shown in Figure 3.

Highway transportation hub Communications

and Information Services Center Level one

Level two
Terminal Field Communications and

Information Branch

Level three

Passenger ticketing service network

Figure 3. Communication and Information System Model Structure.

1) Level one: the communication and information service center is the

information processing center of the hub, and is responsible for transmission of
information in both directions of vertical and horizontal. Horizontal: it can
communicate with train stations, civil aviation sectors as well as other highway hubs.
They can transfer information mutually with other highway transportation hubs of
the nation. Vertical: it can communicate with the superiors and the transport
department in charge of upwards, and transfer information with the terminal field
downwards, (Beijing Municipal Institute of City Planning and Design, 2006). The
computer management and information system of hubs have an all-round, multi-level
integrated service function, and eventually evolve into intelligent decision support
systems and expert systems to provide scientific decision-making services for
highway transport hubs.
2) Level two: the main functions of terminal field communication and the
information system is collecting, collating, transferring source and transportation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1272
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information, operation and management of passenger vehicles and scheduling,

statistics of passenger flow, financial settlement, etc. Generally there should be a
computer ticket subsystem, waiting room service subsystem, station management and
monitoring subsystem, parcel control subsystem, plans, statistics, finance, analysis
subsystem and security check subsystem in the terminal.
3) Level three: the communication and information system of passenger ticket
sales service network uses the form of client and connecting with passenger terminal
of the network through communication and information center, in order to achieve
the interconnection of all ticket sales and improve transport efficiency.
AUXILIARY SERVICE SYSTEM MODEL DESIGN
Auxiliary service system analysis
Ancillary services system is the logistics support of the hub to achieve quality
service. Commonality of the highway passenger hub makes for stronger services for
passengers, shippers, and vehicle owners in a wide range. It can be
compartmentalized from functional into a personnel service system, vehicle service
system and cargo storage service system, (The People's Republic of China Ministry
of Transport, 2004). A personnel services system is necessary for visitors, division
passengers and the station staff, and vehicle service systems are the facilities for
parking, refueling, and maintenance during the vehicle transportation. Cargo storage
service systems are the facilities for the storage and distribution of small piece cargo.
Auxiliary service system structure model design
1) Provide service to people
(1) Provide service to customers. Passengers are the main target of passenger
services and they must have a safe, convenient, quick and comfortable way of travel.
Other than the construction of production services, communication and information,
organization and management, it should also be considered for passengers while
waiting to resolve temporary accommodation, food and entertainment, shopping,
queries, and other needs. Thus, it is very necessary to equip with the appropriate
number of rooms, restaurants, entertainment venues, shopping malls, a post office,
question offices and other facilities and equipment.
(2) Provide service to division passengers. Drivers who control a vehicle are
directly involved in the specific implementation process of the transportation
business, and their driving condition is directly related to passengers’ safety and
comfort on the way of travel; as well as related to the safety and arrival of the goods.
Drivers after long-distance travel must have the best service, and service facilities
(including dormitories, dining, entertainment, etc.) as necessary. Also, some
provisions for division passengers on medical check-up services are needed.
Individual medical records database of drivers should be established on good
conditions in order to keep abreast of the driver's physical and psychological
conditions, and to provide timely treatment of problems identified as well as to
ensure that they can be full of energy to work.
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(3) Provide service to station staff. It is necessary to provide a certain number of

staff apartments, canteens, cultural life and health facilities for station staff, loading
and unloading personnel, and special machinery operators.
2) Provide service to vehicles
All kinds of vehicles are the main body of the transportation process, technical
condition of vehicles is directly related to the safety of passenger transport. Therefore,
parking, refueling, maintenance and other facilities are essential.
(1) Refueling station. Fuel motor vehicles of various transports in the station,
and achieve the major part of all the computer-controlled operation including the
refueling process, the number of records, fees charged through the establishment of
fuel management system, to improve work efficiency.
(2) Maintenance facilities. Vehicle maintenance facilities can provide services
for vehicles such as testing, repair, cleaning, and beautification. They can also
provide the vehicle data according to vehicle management system, understand the
situation of each vehicle's own, and develop a more effective solution for different
problems.
(3) Parking facilities. Vehicles in the station should be provided with adequate
parking (library). Parking lot design should facilitate the operation of vehicles
entering and leaving, and set the necessary traffic control facilities including traffic
signs, radio equipment, and large screen display device for a command center to
facilitate the scheduling of vehicles. Apart of that, a certain number of parking
facilities should also be considered for the needs of the community vehicles.
The structure model of auxiliary service system is designed in three modules of
people, vehicles and goods, as shown in Figure 4.
CONCLUSIONS
The application practice of the Beijing national highway passenger hub shows
that: using multi-level hierarchical control as the dominant and feedback control &
auxiliary control as the core, with the idea of “three-level management” and “Four
systems”, the overall design of highway passenger transport hub is made, and the
structure model of organization and management, production services,
communication and information, and auxiliary services system is established. The
system design concept of full services throughout the process can be achieved, and
these methods and models can be used as advices to other national highway traffic
hub systems.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1274
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Auxiliary Service System Information System

People Service Facilities Vehicle Service Facilities Small Cargo Express

Refueling station

Distribution Center
Maintenance

Warehouse
Passenger

passengers

Division

Parking
Staff

Rest, entertainment, restaurants, Vehicles (social) services

Medical services, postal services, savings and Inside and outside for

other services the station

Figure 4. Auxiliary Service System Model Structure Design.

REFERENCES
Beijing Municipal Institute of City Planning and Design. (2006). Beijing highway
network planning (revision). Beijing.
Beijing Municipal Committee of Communications. (2008). Beijing highway
transport hub general planning (revision). Beijing.
Feng, S. M. (2009). Traffic System Engineering. Intellectual Property Publishing
House. Beijing.
Li, D. G., Huo, Y. M., and Luo, X. (2005). “Chengdu highway main hub general
planning post-evaluation study”. Highway Traffic Technology J., 22(9).
The People's Republic of China Ministry of Transport. (2004). Highway passenger
transport hub level division and building requirements, (JT200－2004).
The People's Republic of China Ministry of Transport. (2007). The overall plan for
highway transport hub approach.
Zhang, Y. N., Li, J., and Pan, Z. Y. (2006). “Discussion of highway transport hub for
the division-level”. Gansu Science and Technology J.,9.
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Effects of First Class Highway Roadside Interference on Operating Speed

Ronggui ZHOU1, Bing LI2 and Hua CHAI3

1.
Researcher; Doctor of Engineering, Research Institute of Highway Ministry of
Transport, NO. 8 Xitucheng Street ,Haidian District, 100088, P.R.China; PH
86-10-13601229231; email: rg.zhou@rioh.cn.
2.
Master of Engineering; Beijing Key Lab of Traffic Engineering; College of
Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, No. 100
Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100124, P.R. China; PH
86-10-13488676349; email: libing435@emails.bjut.edu.cn
3.
Traffic engineer; Master of Engineering, Research Institute of Highway Ministry of
Transport, NO. 8 Xitucheng Street , Haidian District, 100088, P.R.China; PH
86-10-13401057609; email: h.chai@rioh.cn.

ABSTRACT
The goal of the research was to study one of the most important effects of first
class highway operating efficiency–roadside interference. First Class highway is a
special type of road, which is unknown in other countries; they are similar to
multi-lane road. In this research, operating speed on First Class highway is analyzed
based on the peculiar influencing factor-roadside interference in China. This factor
did not exist when the first class highway was built; however with the rapid
development of the Chinese economy, the scope of the city is increasing gradually.
The surrounding environment of the highway has been changed time to time. So, the
roadside interference (such as pedestrians, bicycles, etc.) changes the original
function of the highway. In order to collect enough data, the experimental study
includes two aspects: subjective and objective method. According to the influencing
degree of roadside interference on operation efficiency, the roadside classification is
achieved, which can be theoretical reference for First Class highway construction in
the future.

INTRODUCTION
According to highway classification systems in China, First Class highway is a
multi-lane road between two-lane road and expressway, which is a two-direction
lane-control and can provide access control.
With the rapid development of highways in China, the functions of varied
highway class in highway network are improving. Based on the experiences of
highway development overseas, the First Class highway will take up 20~25 percent
in highway network; however, only 1~2 percent within highway network is a First
Class highway in China. (Xiao et al., 2006) In the light of improvement of road
network structures and transportation functions, the construction of First Class
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1276
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highway will further expand. Therefore, a systematic research on First Class highway
operating speed is necessary.
Compared with developed countries, roadside traffic is the prominent issue in
China. High motorization in developed countries leads to rarely driving bicycles or
tractors on the hard shoulder; however, it is common in China. As a rule of First
Class highway design in China, constructing connectors instead of crossing town is
applied in order to achieve access function (Bin, 2008). In many areas, depending on
low degree of urbanization on roadside during construction, closure was not adopted
in design. As an economic development, land-use of roadside promoted roadside
business. Assemblage of manufacture, housing and service facilities along roadside
attract traffic (such as pedestrians, bicycles, and low-speed vehicles etc.), which
contribute to high demand of highway infrastructures. All the interferences on
mainstream traffic seriously influence regular operation.
ROADSIDE INFLUENCE EXPERIMENT
Initial Experiment
There are two aspects of the experiment.
Subjective:
In this aspect, driver questionnaire is mainly used. According to driving
experiences on road sections, varied interference factors and relevant driving
behaviors will be analyzed. Finally, the variation of degree of influence will be
completed after interference factors ranking.
Objective:
Because roadside interference happens occasionally, continuous collection of
operating speed based on GPS mounted on a vehicle was applied, which combined
the experiment vehicle with video capture method. GPS was used to collect
continuous speed data of experiment vehicle on selected road sections, and the
operating conditions of the vehicle can be drawn after speed data analysies; the
videos can log roadside interference. Accordingly, varied degree of roadside
interference and influencing area can be achieved.
Further Experiment
After the analysis of initial experimental data, the influencing area of roadside
interference on First Class highway can be drawn as 200m, and the major influencing
factors include low-speed vehicles (such as motorcycles, bicycles, tractors etc.),
pedestrians, road-side parking vehicles and other non-motorized vehicles.
Based on the achieved data, the surveyors collected number of pedestrians,
low-speed vehicles and non-motorized vehicles and roadside parking vehicles down
and up stream of the observation point in every five minutes. The automated traffic
data collection system was equipped on the center of lanes so that traffic volume,
speed and vehicle type can all be obtained.

ROADSIDE INTERFERENCE ANALYSIS

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Under the condition of more than two road users or road user and structure
closing in the same time and space, one of the road users takes improper operation
(such as changes speed or lanes, unexpected stopping, etc.), which causes another
user inevitably to take avoidance behavior (i.e. driving condition changing) in order
to avoid collision dangers. Commonly, the event described above is defined as traffic
interference.
The questionnaire analysis results indicate that motorcycles are the most
influencing factor, with following factors being bicycles, tractors, pedestrians,
roadside parking vehicles and other non-motorized vehicles. Based on the amount of
roadside interference on the observation section in every five minutes, roadside
interference variable FRIC is calculated by Formula 1. After transformation into
hourly data, they are compared with free-flow speed of passenger car in the same
period of time.
In practical analyses, the formula for calculation of roadside interference
variable FRIC is achieved as below:
FRIC  0.129  bic  0.164  psv  0.202  tra  0.148  ped  0.171 smv  0.185mot

Where: bic=bicycle; psv=roadside parking vehicle; tra=low-speed vehicle;

ped=pedestrian; smv=non-motorized vehicle; mot=motorcycle.

Figure 1. Roadside Interference and Operating Speed.

Moreover, qualitative classification of various roadside interferences is
presented as well as land use characteristics on roadside.
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Table 1. Different Roadside Interference Degree.

Roadside Land Use Characteristics of
Roadside interference
interference
Factor Weighted Average Roadside
Degree
0 0-50 Farmland or mountains
1 50-100 Few farmhouses and pedestrians
Few pedestrians and vehicles; gas
2 100-150
station and stores.
High urbanization on roadside;
3 ＞150 existence of residential and business
areas, many pedestrian and vehicles.
The main effects of roadside interference are the free-flow speed of mainstream
traffic and the interference is different by the varied degree of roadside interference.
The higher the roadside interference degree, the more serious the effects are. So we
choose four roads, which have different roadside interference degree to prove it.
Table 2. Descriptive of Free-flow Speed -Different Roadside Interference
Degree.
Roadside
Standard
Interference Group Average Quantity Minimum Maximum
deviation
Degree
0 1 64.5 781 15.0 18.3 129.5
1 2 62.8 275 15.1 26.7 111.8
2 3 57.3 302 13.2 12.7 111.8
3 4 51.7 417 13.9 11.1 82.6
Sum 60.0 1775 15.3 11.1 129.5

Table 3. The Variance Analysis.

Mean
Quadratic sum DOF F Sig.
variance
Between group 49193.1 3 16397.7 78.1 .0
Within-groups 371503.7 1771 209.7
Sum 420696.9 1774
The significance of variance analysis is zero which proves that different
roadside interference degree has different mean free-flow speed.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1279
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Table 4. Four Group Sample Data Comparative Statistical Analysis of Mean.

95% confidence level

Group Group Mean Difference
Lower bound Upper bound
1 2 1.6561 -1.138 4.450
3 7.1520(*) 4.691 9.613
4 12.8436(*) 10.557 15.130
2 1 -1.6561 -4.450 1.138
3 5.4959(*) 2.359 8.632
4 11.1876(*) 8.184 14.191
3 1 -7.1520(*) -9.613 -4.691
2 -5.4959(*) -8.632 -2.359
4 5.6917(*) 2.995 8.388
4 1 -12.8436(*) -15.130 -10.557
2 -11.1876(*) -14.191 -8.184
3 -5.6917(*) -8.388 -2.995
(*) means below the 95% confidence level

Table 5. Variance Analysis of Free-flow Speed--Group 1 and Group 2.

Quadratic Mean
DOF
sum variance F Sig.
Between group 546.664 1 546.664 2.417 .120
Within-groups 238116.045 1053 226.131
Sum 238662.709 1054
The result proved that the mean of group 1 and group 2 is different but not very
significant (95 percent confidence level, Fcritical= 3.84>2.417).
The analysis proved that the mean free-flow speed is not of roadside
interference degree; however, it is significant at the high level.
According to the regression analysis results of effects of roadside interference
intensity on mainstream free-flow speed on nearside lane, operating speed will
reduce by around 10 percent as degree of conflict intensity increasing one more step.
Therefore, the roadside interference intensity based capacity influencing factors are
drawn in Table 6.
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Table 6. Effects of Intensity of roadside interference on Operating Speed.

RoadsideInterferen Free-flow Speed
0 0
1 -9.0
2 -18.0
3 -27.0
CONCLUSION
With economic rapid growth in China, First Class highway will play a more
important role in whole road network. Moreover, the boundary between arterial
function and collecting function of First Class highway will be ambiguous during the
roadside urbanization development. The roadside classification standards are
achieved by roadside interference study. The detailed functional classification of
First Class highway can help to evaluate operating efficiency of First Class highway,
which prepares good foundation for the further construction of First Class highway.
REFERENCES
Bin, L. (2008). “The study of traffic problem between urban and suburban[J].” China
Forum of Today.
Jian, L., and Qiao, J. (2004). “The ways to improve road safety[J].” Advance in
Transportation Studies.
Lu, W. (2006). “SPSS for Windows-third edition.” Publishing House of Electronics
Industry.
Song, G., and Hai, L. (2008). “Plains security engineering design manual[S].”
Publishing People's Communications Press.
Xiao, P., and Yong, S. (2006). “Urban fringe on road traffic safety design[J].” Traffic
and Safety.
Zou, S., and Shi, Q.X. (2002). “Probability theory and mathematical statistics[M].”
Publishing Higher Education Press.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1281
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A Simulation Optimization System of Signalized Intersections Based on Knowledge

Meiling LI1, Jian RONG2, Zhenhua MOU3 and Jin RAN4

1 College of Civil Engineering of Shandong Jianzhu University, P.O. Box 250101,

Jinan; PH(86)0531-88385751; email: limeiling@sdjzu.edu.cn
2 Transportation Research Center of Beijing University of Technology, P.O. Box
100022, Beijing; PH(86)010-67392082; email: jrong@bjut.edu.cn
3 College of Civil Engineering of Shandong Jianzhu University, P.O. Box 250101,
Jinan; PH(86)0531-86367072; email: mouzhenhua@sdjzu.edu.cn
4 Shandong Hi-Speed Engineering Consultants Co., Ltd, P.O. Box 250002, Jinan;
PH(86)0531-86358831; email: ranjin1978@sohu.com

ABSTRACT
Traffic simulation is an effective means for the optimal design of an
intersection. However, the foreign simulation software can’t be directly applied in
China because of the influence of the mixed traffic. So it is necessary to develop the
simulation system based on China’s traffic characteristics. This paper presented the
methods of the design and realization of the simulation optimization system, with an
isolated signalized intersection as an example. Through the expert’s investigation, the
paper summarizes the existent problems and parameters and the expert’s schemes of
the signalized intersection. Then the knowledge base and the inference engine of the
expert’s system are designed. Based on the design, the paper realizes this system by
writing VB code. It can export the optimized schemes automatically by inputting the
intersection parameters. In addition, the system is also an open system which permits
the users to add in the rule bases and the scheme collections according to the user’s
different demands and the changes of the intersection conditions. The research
indicates that the system is applicable for the signalized intersection.

INTRODUCTION
Traffic simulation was widely applied at the optimal design of intersections. At
present, the traffic simulation software which is used in China is all from abroad.
While a number of studies indicate that there are some limitations in the process of
these simulation software applications. Because the mixed traffic flow is very
outstanding in China, especially the quantity of bicycles and pedestrians are large at
each intersection. In these conditions, this simulation software cannot be applied
exactly (He, 2003). Therefore, it is very important to study and develop the traffic
simulation system based on China’s traffic characteristics. As for this system, there
are two key technologies. One is how to confirm the mixed traffic’s behavior and
parameters; another is how to present the optimized schemes of intersections.
In China, Dr. He Min and Master Sun Zhiyong, Beijing University of
Technology, studied respectively the bicycle and pedestrian behavior and parameters
at signalized intersections, and established the simulation model of bicycle and
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pedestrian behavior (He and Sun, 2004). As for the second key technology, the
current researches mainly focus on the individual aspect of the optimal design of
intersection. Actually, it includes many contents, such as the geometric design, the
signal design, and the traffic organization design, etc. Zhang (2001) proposed a
theory of architecture of signal phasing with expert system for the at-grade
intersection. Ma Jianming proposed the framework of signalized intersection
optimization expert system in his doctoral dissertation, and the system was divided
into three subsystems which included the geometric design, the signal design, and the
traffic organization design. But only the signal design subsystem had been designed.
He also completed a signal optimization model based on the expert system (Ma,
2001).
In other word, the current studies on the key technologies of the traffic
simulation system are still scattered. As for the optimal design of intersection, there
is still no research in many aspects. Judge the existent problem in an intersection, and
determining how to give improved measures to optimize the intersections design in
simulation. Therefore, this paper selects the isolated signalized intersection as the
study object and studies how to design and realize the signalized intersection
simulation and optimization system which could generate the optimal schemes in the
simulation system for the signalized intersection.
RESEARCH APPROACH
In China, the optimal design of signalized intersections is generally carried out
by the traffic management department. The general process is shown in Figure 1.
traffic survey or prediction

decide problems

manual design by
design measures experienced engineer

implement measures

N Y
do solve problem?

end

Figure 1. General process of the optimal design of signalized intersections.

In the figure 1, the most pivotal process is the “design measures” which are
designed by the experienced experts or engineers who rely on their wealth of
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knowledge and experiences, which can be summarized. According to this feature, the
signalized intersection simulation and optimization system can be designed and
realized via the expert system based on the knowledge.
Brief introduction of expert system
The expert system（ES） is a program system which has a great deal of
professional knowledge and experiences. It can ratiocinate and judge by virtue of the
artificial intelligence and computer technology, which relies on one or more of the
expert’s knowledge and experiences in a certain area. It can simulate the human
expert’s decision-making process to deal with complex problems which require the
human experts to resolve. (Wang, 2001)
The main components of ES are the knowledge base and the inference engine.
The basic structure of ES is shown in Figure 2.
knowledge engineer
knowledge data
knowledge inference user
base engine
result
domain expert
Figure 2. Basic structure of ES.
The knowledge base stores the knowledge which is required by the system to
solve the problems; while, the inference engine takes charge to resolve the practical
problems by using the knowledge stored in the knowledge base. The knowledge in
the brain of the domain experts can be cleaned up by the cooperation between the
knowledge engineers and the domain experts, and stored in the knowledge base via
the methods of using the system to express the knowledge. So, the knowledge base
can be built up. In solving the problems, the user provides some known data for this
system, and receives the conclusions which will have the expert level from the
system.
Realization approach
To accomplish the established objectives, the following works are required:
(1)Summarizing the experiences and knowledge of ES.
(2)Designing ES.
(3)Realizing ES and verifying it.
EXPERT SURVEY
Survey design
1) Survey objectives and methods: In order to design the knowledge base and
the inference engine of ES, the expert’s judging process and required knowledge in
the optimization process need to be investigated. The survey methods adopt the
expert’s survey method.
2) Survey contents: In the daily work, the engineers or experts first identify the
possible problems at a given intersection. Then, they decide whether or not to
conduct the traffic investigation to acquire the key parameters, which could help to
identify the serious the problem. Finally, by considering the current problem and
survey data, they could give some optimization measures. So the survey content
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includes:
(1) Optimization knowledge: All the intersection symptoms and problems, all
the key parameters, all the optimization measures.
(2) Reasoning method: How to judge these problems according to the
symptoms; how to give the optimization measures according to the problems or the
key parameters.
(3) Selected expert: Selecting the experts in these fields, such as the traffic
management departments, the traffic design departments, the research institutes and
the universities.
Survey result
1) Optimization knowledge
In order to store the data conveniently, the knowledge, such as the existing
problems in the intersection, the symptoms in the intersection, the key parameters
and the optimization measures and so on, should be divided into different categories.
Each category is called one collection.
(1)Collection of the intersection problems
(p1) Signal design problems
(p2) Channelization design problems
(p3) Traffic capacity problems
……
(2)Collection of the intersection symptoms
As for each approach to the intersection, the symptoms included:
(s1)The vehicle in the special straight lane was jammed at multi-phase control
mode.
(s2)The vehicle in the special right lane was jammed at protecting right-phase
control mode.
(s3)The vehicle in the special left lane was jammed at two-phase control mode.
(s4)The vehicle in the special right lane was jammed and conflicted
significantly with bicycles at right-free control mode.
(s5)The straight vehicle in the mixed lane was blocked by right and left turning
vehicle.
(s6)The right vehicle in the mixed lane conflicted significantly with straight
bicycles.
(s7)The pedestrians and bicycles disturbed significantly.
……
(3)Collection of the key parameters
(k1)Volume, saturation volume, turning volume, turning percent
(k2)Delay
(k3)Queue length
(k4)Average speed, speed
(k5)v/c of intersection, v/c of approach, v/c of lane
……
(4)Collection of the optimization measures
(m1)adjust signal time of the approach
(m2)adjust signal scheme
(m3)adjust cycle length
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1285
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(m4)setup protection left-turning phase

(m5)setup special left lane
(m6)add special straight lane
(m7)add special left lane
(m8)setup prohibition region for non-motor vehicles
(m9)have a prohibition or limitation for some vehicles or directions
2)Reasoning method
The reasoning is one method of the combination of qualitative and quantitative.
Qualitative Methods: According to different combinations of the symptoms at
the approach, the problems can be roughly determined. Examples of the symptom
combinations are shown in Table 1.
Quantitative Methods: For some problems, besides qualitative judgments, the
key parameters can also be used to confirm the exact problem to give concrete
measures. Examples are shown in Table 2.
Reasoning method was shown in Figure 3.
Table1. Examples of the symptom combinations at the single approach.
No. Combination Problems
p1 Signal design problem
（s1）、（s2） p2 Channelization design problem
1
and their combination p3 Traffic capacity problem
2 （s3） p2 Channelization design problem
p1 Signal design problem
（s4）、（s5）
3 p2 Channelization design problem
and their combination p3 Traffic capacity problem
p2 Channelization design problem
（s7）、（s8）、 （s9）
4 p1 Signal design problem
and their combinations p3 Traffic capacity problem
Table 2. Examples of using key parameter to give concrete measures.
No. Problems Key parameters Judge rule and relevant measures
Signal design Turning percent of Left turning percent ≥15% , setup
1
problem vehicle protection left turning phase
Channelization
Turning percent ≥15% , setup
of Left turning percent
2 design
vehicle special left lane
problem

Traffic v/c≥1.0, setup prohibition or

3 capacity v/c of intersection limitation for some kinds of
problem vehicles or directions
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1286
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start

Symptoms collection Input data

Select symptons of each approach simulate

Analysis all the symptons Output parameters

Possible problems of approach 1,2,…,K

i=1

Y
i＞K

N
N
is problem i? i= i +1
Y
Problem i

Measure i

Integrated analysis

Ouput the confirmed problems and measures

end
Figure 3. The chart of reasoning method.
SYSTEM DESIGN
Design of the Knowledge Base
According to the characteristics of the research object, the knowledge
representation of this problem selected the production system. The rules in the
knowledge base were divided into two tiers. The first layer of rules could roughly
judge the source of the problems according to the corresponding symptoms. While,
the second layer of rules gives the specific solutions according to the parameters and
results of the first layer.
The following are examples of the first layer of rules:
IF s1 OR s2 THEN p1；p2；p3
IF s3 THEN p2
Examples of the second layer rules was as follows:
IF p1 AND [ s1 OR s2 ] THEN m1
IF p1 AND s5 AND left turning percent of vehicle≥15% THEN m5
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1287
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IF v/c＜0.8 AND Delay of intersection ＞40 THEN m4

Note: No.p1 refers to the serial number of the problems; number s1 is the serial
number of the symptoms of approach; number m1 is the serial number of measures.
v/c、Delay refers to the key parameters.
Design of the Inference Machine
The r reasoning process was shown in Figure 4.
Start

Input initial infacts by user

Obtain indirectly some demanding facts by calculating or simulation

Write above facts into comprehensive database

Make reasoning by rules in knowledge base

Write the new reasoning facts into comprehensive database

Output result

End

Figure 4. The chart of reasoning process.

1) Reasoning direction
Choosing the positive reasoning as the reasoning direction as shown in Figure
5.
2) Searching strategy
Using the deep and first search strategy: When it searches a certain state, it’s all
sub-states and their descendants must be searched firstly before their brother’s state.
3) Confliction resolving strategy
Selecting the single taxis: If a certain condition of a rule is more pertinent than
that of another rule. The former rule has the higher priority.
Design of the Comprehensive Database
According to the reasoning process as shown in Figure 5, the system has an
integrated database which is used to store the initial facts, the middle facts and the
ultimate facts and so on.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1288
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Start

Order I=1

Take out presupposition of rule I

N
Does comprehensive
I= I +1
database have the facts？

Y
Take out conclusion of rule I

Can still Y
Is the conclusion N
produce new
new fact ?
fact ?

Y
N
Write into comprehensive database
Output

Figure 5. The process of positive reasoning.

ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE SYSTEM
Based on the design of the above knowledge base and the inference machine
and the comprehensive database, the system will be realized through writing VB
code.
Function of the System
1) Design of the intersection optimization
The system used the object oriented interface which prompted the user to input
the data and selected the symptoms of each approach, as shown in Figure 6.
Then opening the corresponding rule collection in the rule editor and clicking
the button of compile and output, the system could analysis and export the resulting
measure collection automatically. For the different demands, the system customized
two sets of rule collections: one included the key parameters, another didn’t. The
output file was shown in Figure 7.
The result which the system exported was the measures of each approach.
Because the precise determination was not perfect, the output included all the
possible measures which arranged from light to strong in accordance with the
measure adjusting intensity. The user could select and input the combination of the
measures to the simulation system to select the best measures.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1289
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Figure 6. The interface of entrance information input.

Figure 7. The output file of system.

2) Providing a script debugging platform
The system provides the function to customize the optimal rule by the script
debugging. The user can also utilize the extension port to extend the system by
programming to achieve new demands. The system supports the two program
languages, VB and JAVA , to write debugger.
3) Expansibility of the system
The system provides the extended function:
(1)The measures and symptoms collection can be complemented in time. The
two collections of system are summed up through some expert’s investigation which
inevitably had some omissions. Concerning this the systems setup in advance a port
to add and edit, as shown in Figure 8. So the knowledge engineer or the user could
check and add to improve the system.
(2)In addition, the rule collection was not perfect because the current study was
not comprehensive, especially the study on how to judge by the key parameters. In
the future, if the correlative research was improved, the rules could be edited by the
rule editor. So no matter what changed, the system could be updated expediently for
the future. Figure 9 showed the rule editor interface.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1290
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Figure 8. The interface of measure and symptom editing.

Figure 9. The interface of rule editor.

Case verification
In order to verify the feasibility of the system, an intersection as the case was
selected.
First, we investigated the intersection to obtain the input data of the system.
Then, we entered the basic information in the system, and run the system to output
the result, as shown in Figure 10.
The validation proved the system run normally and reached the design aim.

Figure 10. Output of the case.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1291
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CONCLUSIONS
Optimal design at signalized intersections needs the experiences and
knowledge, according to it’s characteristic, this paper took knowledge-based expert
system as a research tool, designed and realized the simulation optimization ES of
isolated signalized intersection. First, the expert survey was made and optimization
knowledge and reasoning methods were summarized. Then, the knowledge base and
the inference engine and comprehensive database were designed. The system was
realized by writing VB code. The system was able to output the optimization
solutions by entering the simple parameters. It was an open system which was
conducive to supplement the improved data including the measures, symptoms, key
parameters, rules and so on. In order to verify the feasibility of the system, an
intersection was selected to prove that the system would run normally and reach the
design aim.
The research established simulation optimization ES of isolated signalized
intersection. However, in the research, we found that there are still some questions,
especially pertaining to the following aspects:
(1) Investigating more experts and engineers and obtaining the additional data
to improve the system.
(2) Researching on how to judge the problem by the key parameters to support
the system exporting precise optimization measures.
(3) If possible research on how to integrate the system and simulation soft.
(4) Research on the optimal design of other kinds of intersection.
REFERENCES
He, M. (2004). “Research on key technologies of mixed traffic flow microscopic
simulation.” Beijing: Beijing University of Technology, 2004.
He, R. (2003). “Applicability of corsim and simtraffic in beijing.” Beijing: Master
dissertation of Beijing University of Technology, 2003.
Ma, J. (2001). “Research on optimal design and microscopic simulation of isolated
signalized intersections.” Beijing: Beijing University of Technology, 2001.
Sun, Z. (2004). “Study on pedestrian characteristics in crosswalks at signalized
intersections.” Beijing: Beijing University of Technology, 2004.
Zhang, G. (2001). “Research on theory architecture of signal phasing with expert
systems for the at grade intersection.” Journal of Transportation Systems
Engineering and Information Technology, 2001. Vol. 11 No. 12, 170-175.
Wang, S. (2001). “Artificial intelligence tutorial.” Publishing House of Electronics
Industry, 2001.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1292
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Strategy Cost - How Does Organization Structure Drive the Cost of Urban
Railway Transportation

Yuhong HUA1 and Weihua WANG2

1
School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, No.3
Shangyuan Cun, Haidian District, Beijing, China; Beijing Institute of Graphic
Communication, No.25 Xinghuabei Road, Daxing District, Beijing, China. PH
(86-10) 1365-123-2470; FAX (86-10) 6475-9081; email: 04113080@bitu.edu.cn
2
Department of Airport Management, Civil Aviation Management Institute of China,
No.3 Huajiadi East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China, PH (86-10) 1381-
118-4450; FAX (86-10) 6475-9081; email: wwhua@live.cn

ABSTRACT
As an urban public transport, city railway transportation is far more
concerned with its aggressive development in China, especially in recent years.
Almost every local government has special interests to own one or more urban
railways running across the city, but when they begin to consider the cost of
planning, building and operation urban railways, they will find what a black hole
they are facing. As a matter of fact, the reasons that result in this situation include
two aspects: how to determine the cost and the quantity of the cost. This article will
start with the comparison of opinions from different theories about strategy cost,
which is the core element of this article, to analysis of the cost of the urban railways.
Then different cost drivers in different levels of the life span of urban railway
transport will be introduced and how organization structure influences the cost of
urban railways will be illustrated by a following mathematical model.

BACKGROUND
During the past years, a significant shift in cost accounting and management
has occurred, which is the result of an increasing competitive environment where
people give more concern about information technologies, the focus on the customer
and the growth of worldwide markets.
Accounting information plays a vital role in determining the most
appropriate strategic direction for the organization. It guides managerial actions,
motivates behaviors, and supports and creates the cultural values necessary to
achieve an organization's strategic objectives (Ansari et al., 1997). Particularly, cost
management information is critically important to the success of the company, for
which the role of cost management has extended.
In the traditional cost management aspects, cost is closely associated with the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1293
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output. In the activity-based cost phases, the cost is closely associated with the
activity. That is, activity is the cost driver. In the strategic cost management theories,
cost is closely associated with strategy, where strategy is the cost driver.
According to the cost driver theories, different cost drivers can be defined
and are helpful to calculate that cost, but there will not be an effective cost
management and profit analysis only when the meaning of cost driver is correctly
understood. Cost driver theory can be used as a tool that fully reflects the social
productivity and people’s learning abilities at that time.
Cost management systems can help managers understand cost structure and
behavior. Therefore, they can make decisions that will enable the organization to
achieve or exploit a strategic competitive advantage (Buckingham and Loomba,
2001). Strategically, cost management looks to the long-term competitive success of
the firm, which implies that strategic cost management plays an important role in
management functions especially in strategic management. Strategic cost
management can facilitate the developing and implementing of business strategy
where the accountant is viewed as a business partner rather than a mere bookkeeper
(Shank, 1989).
THE CONCEPT OF STRATEGIC COST MANAGEMENT
Strategic management’s aim is to develop sustainable competitive
advantages. A strategy is a set of goals and particular plans, which, if achieved, will
provide the desired competitive advantage (Thompson, 1995). Effective strategic
management is critical to the success of the firm. The growing market pressures,
technological innovation, and changes in business environment have made strategic
cost management much more critical and dynamic than ever before.
Traditional cost management focuses on unit-based drivers, rigid product
cost, and maximization of individual unit performance, financial measures of
performance, internal orientation and short-term perspective. Strategic cost
management, on the other hand, focuses on unit and non-unit-based drivers, broad
product cost, system-wide performance maximization, both financial and non-
financial measures of performance, both internal and external orientation and long-
term perspective (Wilson and Chua, 1993; Fischer, 1993; Shank and Govindarajan,
1993; McNair, 2000). Strategic cost management is not only cost management but
can also increase revenues, improve productivity and customer satisfaction, and at
the same time improve the strategic position of the company.
Strategic cost management is understood in different ways in the literature.
Cooper and Slagmulder (1998) and Welfle and Keltyka (2000) argued that strategic
cost management is the application of cost management techniques to reduce costs
and at the same time improve the strategic position of the company. Shank and
Govindarajan (1993) defined strategic cost management as the managerial use of
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cost information to support the strategic objectives of the company. Horvath and
Brokemper (1998) stated that strategic cost management is the process that
influences the behavior, structure, and level of the costs in order to attain and sustain
a strategic competitive advantage.
In addition, strategic cost management has been discussed from many
aspects in the literature. Strategic cost management has been studied through the use
of various instruments such as target cost (Seidenschwarz, 1993; Ansari et al., 1997),
activity based cost and activity based management (Turney, 1996), benchmarking
(Hoffjan, 1997), or life cycle cost (Shields et al., 1991). Thus, in the field of strategic
cost management, most studies in the literature concentrate on the application of
cost management instruments.
As a matter of fact, the term “strategic cost management” has a broad focus.
It is not confined to the continuous reduction of costs and controlling of expenses. It
is far more concerned with the use of cost information for decision-making.
Strategic cost management is also not confined to use cost management techniques
that reduce costs and improve the strategic position of a firm at the same time. When
most authors talk about strategic cost management, they are really thinking about
cost reduction. However, it is often difficult to demean the importance of cost factor
for the success of the company, but the challenge is to increase revenue, which can
be facilitated by strategic cost management. Cost-management knowledge and
information is critical to their organization's success, but strategic cost management
is more important to organizations because it is more than focusing on costs. In the
successful companies, costs will not be the only most important factor, but value and
revenue will also be considered critical factors in the success of companies.
STRATEGIC COST MANAGEMENT OF THE URBAN RAILWAYS
As many cities expand their scale to gigantic systems, the municipal
authorities found they are facing a mass of problems, which include urban transport
strains that result in congestion, pollution, accidents, etc. One solution to the
transportation problems is to develop high-capacity transport, where urban railway
(subways included) stands as a symbol. Although urban railway is an excellent
solution to the transportation problems, the authorities find what a black hole it is to
build and operate urban railways: mass scale of capital, labor, equipment, and
technology are needed. In order to keep the operation at a safe state and be fitted
with certain safety and environment, continuous inputs are indispensable.
Particularly in China, relatively outdated transport network has become a
constraint to the city development. As a characteristic of public ownership based
market, most of the urban railway projects are built, operated and owned by state-
owned enterprises (SOEs). But as the prices of land, labor and capital rise, this
pattern is facing the lack of financial problem. Hence, the joint venture cooperation
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is considered as a solution to the financial problem.

But this will bring principal-agent problems. The conception of the principal-
agent relationship in economics is a conception within the system of market
economy, and it doesn't exist in the planned economy because in the planned
economy, the state-owned assets are owned and managed by the government, and
the government will control and operate the state-owned assets with administrative
matures. But according to the differences of the ownership foundations of different
kinds of market economy, the principal-agent relationship will also be different. In
the western countries, this relationship exists in the operational system of the state-
owned assets. In China, however, the principal-agent relationships exist in both
ownership system and operational system, which are called the double-level
principal-agent relationships (See Fig.1). In this double-level principal-agent system,
the first level relationship is between the public, or the owner (defined by the
constitution) of the state-owned assets, and the authority, or the government, who is
in charge of the investment and supervision of the state-owned assets. The second
level relationship is between the authority and the nominal operational agent, who
takes the responsibility of the value retaining and increment of the assets and is
designated by the government in a bureaucratic mechanism instead of a market
mechanism.

Ownership System Operational System

Operational
Public Authority
Agent

Level 1 Level 2

Figure 1. Double-Level Principal-Agent Relationships of SOEs.

Generally, the principal-agent relationships of state-owned assets are not
market-based relationships, but juristical and administrative relationships for the
principal-agent relationship of state-owned enterprises in China have some specific
characters. First, it has a multi-level relationship. Second, the principal and the agent
are exclusive. Third, the administrative character constraints the organization’s
efficiency. Fourth, the principal lacks the real care about the state-owned assets.
Besides, since there are financial and principal-agent problems, the
introduction of a new non state-owned investor should be an optimal choice to retard
the principal-agent and financial problems. As an enterprise with a single investor
could be reorganized as a wholly owned company, an enterprise with multi-investors
could be reorganized as a company with limited liability or a company limited by
shares. The corporate governance structure is the core of the corporation institution.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1296
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It is necessary to clarify the responsibility of the congress of share holders, the board
of directors, and the board of supervisors and managers, to form an effective
balancing corporate governance structure.
However, the introduction of new non state-owned investors could not
relieve the potential conflict between principal and agent. A variety of mechanisms
are necessary for the principal to increase the agent’s incentives to exert a positive
effort. But these mechanisms do cost a lot for the principal, which can be classified
as a kind of transaction cost. As the strategic cost management defined, this cost is a
potential cost driver for the urban railway transport company.
The principal-agent relationship between authority and agent can be
illustrated by Fig.2 where the cost driver is shown as TC, the benefit function (where
R stands for the return function of the principal, ω stands for the income function of
the agent, E stands for an exerting condition or its cost when agent exerts an effort, S
stands for a shirking condition or its cost when agent shirks) of the principal is
shown in the left part of the square brackets, the benefit function of the agent is
shown in the right part of the square brackets. For the reason that the first level of
principal-agent relationship is subjected to the legislation mechanism instead of the
market mechanism, only the second level of principal-agent relationship is
considered in the following model.
Authority

Not to
Delegate
delegate

Agent [R(0),0]
Accept Deny

Agent [R(0),0]
Exert Shirk

[R(E ) − ω (E ) − TC , ω (E ) − E ] [R(S ) − ω (S ) − TC , ω (S ) − S ]
Figure 2. Game Model of The Principal And The Agent.
As shown above, the benefit function of principal is decrease by TC, which
means the specific organization structure cost for the principal. On the contrary, the
benefit function of the agent is determined by market mechanism, the TC has little
effect on it.
CONCLUSION
According to agency theory, there are a variety of mechanisms that may help
align the interests of shareholders and managers. These include internal mechanisms
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1297
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such as boards of directors, concentrated ownership, executive compensation

packages and external governance mechanisms such as product market competition,
the managerial labor market, and threat of takeover. Further, from a theoretical
perspective, it is likely that the effectiveness in controlling managerial opportunism
depends on the efficiency of a bundle of governance mechanisms, and different
governance mechanisms may substitute for one another. The discussion about what
mechanism and what corresponding organization is the most effective can be endless.
The cost driver based view should be emphasized. That is, the change in urban
railway transport’s development pattern may be attractive and magnificent, but the
subsequent transaction cost and the loss in efficiency could be huge, which has been
seen in certain periods of the subway Line 4 of Beijing, and should be taken
seriously.
REFERENCES
Ansari, S., Bell, J., Cypher, J., Dears, P., Dutton, J., Ferguson, M., Hallin, K., Marx,
C., Ross, C., and Zampino, P. (1997). “Target costing: the next frontier in
strategic cost management.” McGraw-Hill, New York.
Ansari, S., Bell, J., Klammer, T., and Lawrence, C. (1997). “Strategy and
management accounting:” Version 1.1, Richard D, Irwin, USA.
Buckingham, M., and Loomba, A.P.S. (2001). “Advantageous cost structure: a
strategic costing case study.” Production & Inventory Management
Journal, 1st Quarter, Vol.42, Issue1, pp.12-18.
Cooper, R., and Slagmulder, R. (1998). “Strategic cost management: what is strategic
cost management?” Management Accounting, Jan. Vol. 79 No. 7, pp.14-16.
Fischer, T. (1993). “Kostenmanagement strategischer erfolgsfaktoren.” Verlag
Vahlen, ünchen.
Freidank, C.-C., Götze, U., Huch, B., and Weber, J. (eds.): “Kostenmanagement.
aktuelle konzepte und anwendungen.” Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp.343-
355.
Horvath, P., and Brokemper, A. (1998). “Strategieorientiertes kostenmanagement:
thesen zum einsatz von kosteninformationen im strategischen
planunsprozess.” Zeitschrift fur Betriebswirtschaft, June 1998, Vol.68,
Issue 6, pp.581-604.
McNair, C. (2000). “Defining and shaping the future of cost management.” Journal
of Cost Management, September/October 2000, pp.28-32.
Shank, J. (1989). “Strategic cost management: new wine, or just new bottles?”
Seidenschwarz.
Shank, J., and Govindarajan, V. (1993). “Strategic cost management: the new tool
for competitive advantage.” The Free Press, New York.
Shields, M., and Young, S. (1991). “Managing product life-cycle costs: an
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1298
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organizational model.” Journal of Cost Management, Fall 1991, pp.39-52.

Thompson, J. (1995). “Strategy in action.” Chapman & Hall, New York.
Turney, P. (1996). “Activity-based costing: the performance breakthrough.” Kogan
Page Limited, London.
Welfle, B., and Keltyka, P. (2000). “Global competition: the new challenge for
management accountants.” The Ohio CPA Journal, January-March 2000,
pp.30-36.
Wilson, R.M.S., and Chua, W.F. (1993). “Management accounting: method and
meaning. 2nd ed.” Chapman and Hall, London.
W. (1993). “Target costing-marktorientiertes zielkostenmanagement.” Vahlen,
München. Journal of Management Accounting Research, Vol.1, Fall 1989,
pp.47-65.
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An Empirical Study of the Urban Traffic Accident Causes with Correspondence

Analysis Method

Chunlu PENG1, Jian LU1 and Weihao YIN1

1
School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong
University, Shanghai; PH +86 (21) 3420-7275; email: clpeng@sjtu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
At the present time, the annual rising number of traffic accidents is becoming
a serious problem in China. Especially in the metropolitan areas, the expanding
population and influx of migrant workers are making the traffic flow more and more
complex. This induces the accidents to occur more and more frequently, on the
other hand, the accident causes are also more complex. This paper collects the
historical statistical accident data in Shanghai, and then builds the accident-road-
traffic flow relational database. On the basis, this paper analyzes the traffic accident
statistical characters and the relationship between the accident statistical data and the
road parameter data with correspondence analysis method. This paper gives also
some suggestion on the active safety planning and the passive safety management
method. The paper analyzes the contributing factors on the metropolitan traffic
accidents, and then gives some advice to the relative administration authorities,
which can help for the improvement of urban transportation safety.

INTRODUCTION
Mobility and the transportation infrastructure has created a huge prosperity
for people during the past few hundred years, but they also bring us a global crisis
that is taking 1.2 million lives and causing 50 million injuries every year in the world.
According to a report from World Health Organization, Road traffic injuries are
expected to take the third place in the rank order of disease burden by the year 2020.
Especially in China, the number of mobile vehicle just accounts for 1.58% of the
total in the world, but the crash death rate per million vehicles is much higher than
that in the developed countries. This paper surveys the statistical characters of the
traffic accidents in Shanghai, and then analyzes effect of the main contribution
factors for the traffic accidents using the correspondence analysis method. The study
results can provide an effective suggestion for the urban traffic planner and manager.
As we know, the traffic accidents can be caused by one or a combination of
the traffic system components, such as the human behavior, the vehicle driving
conditions, the weather conditions. Accident reduction can be achieved by targeting
these components and developing measures to improve their safety performance, so
researching how the main contribution factors result in the traffic accidents is very
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1300
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crucial for the traffic safety improvement. The existing study can be divided into
two categories: single contribution factor study and multiple contribution factors
study. As for the former, Brent L. (Brent, 2001), Li et al. (Li et al., 2007), Chen et al.
(Chen et al., 2001) analyzed how the road geometric characteristics incur the
occurrence of the traffic accidents. Qi (Qi, 2007), Feng (Feng, 2004) analyzed the
accident occurrence statistical characters during heavy fog conditions, then studied
the traffic safety management system during heavy fog condition. Gu (Gu, 2006),
Wang (Wang, 2002) studied the statistical relationship of the traffic accidents
occurrence rate with the vehicle performance, and driver behavior. Since the traffic
accident are usually the result of a combination of factors, some researchers have
study the effect of multiple factors, Andrew Vogt (Andrew, 2001) gave a conclusion
that most of the traffic accidents are caused by: human factors, road geometry, outer
circumstance, and vehicle performance, which are the minor causes for traffic
accidents, which is shown in Fig. 1.
Road alignment& environment
Human cause factor
cause factor 28%
4% 24% 67% 95%

Vehicle cause factor 8% 4% 4%

Figure 1. Traffic accident cause composition.

Meng (Meng, 2000) put forward the causing analysis model to analyze the
traffic accidents causes on the black spots of freeway. The previous traffic accident
cause analysis mainly focuses on the highway and freeway, but with the fast pace of
urbanization in China, traffic safety on the urban road has become the serious
problem to be solved. On the other hand the study on the urban traffic safety is
insufficient, so this paper collects the historical data. Then analyzes how the road
alignment and traffic characters complement the occurrence of the traffic accidents,
and on this base this paper analyzes the key causes for the urban road traffic
accidents. This paper provides effective advice for the traffic infrastructure planning
and designing process.
METHOD CHOICE
As we know, the traffic accident a non-recurrent event, and the accident causes
differ a lot for each occurrence. For this reason the statistics methods are often used
to identify the general key causes or quantify the effect of the factors for the
incidents. In the previous study, Poisson regression, multiple linear regressions and
Negative Binomial regression are the three most commonly used methods to analyze
the factors effect. However, some deficiencies exist, they are not so effective in
describe the effect from the multiple variables or from variable sets. On this base,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1301
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this paper chooses the correspondence analysis method to identify the key
contribution factors for the urban traffic accidents. Correspondence analysis is a
geometric technique for displaying the rows and columns of a two-way contingency
table as points in a low-dimensional space. The positions of the row and column
points are consistent with their associations in the table. The goal is to have a global
view of the data that is useful for interpretation.
DATA COLLECTION
This paper investigated the time and space distribution of historical traffic
accidents in Shanghai, then to collect the data, and collected three kinds of data in
2007 from the government data management system in Xuhui District, which is: (1)
traffic accident data, including the accident occurrence time, accident location,
accident type; (2) the traffic characters, mainly including the type of accident
vehicles; (3) the road feature, including the cross-section type (road surface and
shoulder types), the number of lanes, the shoulder, lane widths and the road
classification.
In China, the traffic accidents are often classified according to the lost of the
accident, which are minor accident, serious accident, more serious accident and the
most serious accident. Since the traffic flow on the urban roads are more
homogenous than that on highway/rural roads, and the vehicle velocity is much
lower. Most of the accidents on the urban roads are more minor. This paper
classifies the traffic accidents into four categories: (1) collision between vehicle and
person; (2) collision between vehicles; (3) collision between motor vehicle and the
non-motor vehicle; (4) collision to the infrastructure. On this base, this paper
classifies the collision into seven types according to the behavior of the vehicles,
which is shown in Table 1.
Table 1. the seven categories of vehicle collision.
No Category No Category
1 Rear-end collision 5 Vehicle & Object collision
2 Collision while making turn 6 Vehicle & Passenger collision
3 Sideswipe/head on 7 Vehicle & Bicycle/Motorcycle collision
4 Collision while changing lane
The involved vehicles are divided into three categories: (1) Light-duty Vehicle
which contains less than five seats or loads less then 4,500 kg; (2) Medium Weight
Vehicle which contains five to ten seats or loads between 4,500 to 12,000 kg; (3)
Oversize Vehicle which contains over 10 seats or loads over 12,000 kg.
The roads are divided into three classifications, which are the arterial roads, the
collector roads, and the local streets. Since the in-homogeneity is the most
particular character for the Chinese urban traffic flow, this paper also considers the
characters of the road cross-section, and puts it into tree categories: (1) undivided
road, which means there is no dividing facility, and the lane is divided by yellow or
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1302
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white line; (2) Median-divided road which has a median between the traffic
directions; (3) Three-divided road which has the dividing facilities between the
vehicle lanes; (3) Four divided roads on which both the median-divided and the
three-divided facilities are existing. Table 2 show the main variable used in this
paper.
Table 2. the main variables in the study.
Data Variable name Classification
Traffic Vehicle Type 1: Light-duty; 2: Medium Weight; 3: Oversize
acciden
Collision Type As shown in Table 1
t data
The Number of
Lanes
One-way
Road & traffic/two-way 0: one-way traffic; 1: two-way traffic
Traffic traffic
Data The classification
1: arterial 2: collector 3: local street
of Road
Road dividing 1: undivided 2: Median dividing
facilities 3: Three-dividing 4: Four-dividing
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
The Relationship between the collision type and the road classification
According to the correspondence analysis results, the relevance between the
traffic accident type and the road classification are significant since the statistic

index  2 is 24.421 and the P-value is 0.018. The analyzing result is shown as Fig. 2.

It is clear that the spot of no.1 in dimension 2 is much closer to the spot of no. 1 and
no. 7 in dimension 2. Besides, both no. 2 in dimension 2 and no. 3 in dimension 1
are much closer to the origin of coordination. This shows that they are relevant to
each other although the distance is a litter farer between them. The other plots on
the graph show little relevance each other. From the statistical result, the conclusion
can be given as the following:
(1) Most of the traffic accidents on the local streets are the collision between
the vehicle and the passengers or the bicycle.
(2) More collisions between vehicles occurred on the arterial roads, which
are often caused by the changing-lane behavior.
(3) Compared with the local streets and the arterial roads, the accidents
occurring on the collector roads are much rarer.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1303
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Collision Type

Road Type

Figure 2. Correspondence analysis for accidents and road classification.

Relationship of the collision and the road cross-section characters

Fig. 3 shows the relationship of the collision type with the road cross-section
characters. As shown in fig. 3, the couple circular point 1 and triangular point 3.
Circular point 6 and triangular point 3 have a smaller distance, from which we can
draw the conclusions as follows:
(1) On the undivided road, most of the collisions are between the vehicle and
the passengers are the most.
(2) On the three divided roads, the rear-end collision have the most
occurrence frequency.
(3) On the four divided roads, the collisions usually occur while the involved
vehicle changes lanes.

Collision Type
Road Cross-section type

Figure 3. Correspondence analysis for accident and road cross-section types.

Relationship of the collision type with the involved vehicle type

The analysis results are shown as in Figure 4, in which the triangular point 1
has nearer row distance with the circular point 1, 7, 2, and the triangular point 2 has
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1304
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nearer row distance with the circular point 3, 6. From such a result, we can draw the
conclusions as follows:
(1) The light-duty vehicles usually cause the rear-end collisions, Vehicle &
Bicycle/Motorcycle collision and collision while making turns.
(2) In the sideswipe/head on collision and Vehicle & Passenger collisions, the
medium vehicles are usually involved.
Such results are relative with the investigation area in this study. Most of
vehicles travelling on the CBD road networks are cars, so more collisions are caused
by the light-duty vehicles. On the other hand, the collisions caused by the medium
vehicles are more serious, so second conclusions occur.
Collision Type

Vehicle Type

Figure 4. Correspondence analysis for accident and vehicle type.

Correspondence Analysis for All Variables

The above three sections analyze how the variable of the road type, vehicle
type, and the road cross-section type effect the occurrence of the traffic accidents.
The following part will give the corresponding analysis including the above three
variables, with the result is shown in Fig. 5. According to the variable definition, we
can give the following conclusions:
(1) On the local streets, rear-end and vehicle & bicycle/motorcycle collisions
have higher occurrence frequency.
(2) The turning collisions of oversize vehicles occur more on the arterial
roads.
To a certain extent, the above conclusions can be due to the high in-
homogenous traffic flow. In China, the mixed traffic of the bicycles, motorcycles,
and motor vehicles are widely distributed on the urban roads, so the conflicts
between them occur frequently, especially at the intersections and the bus stations.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1305
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Vehicle Type Road Cross-section Type

Road Type Collision Type

Figure 5. Correspondence analysis for all variables.

CONCLUSION
Compared with the highway systems, the lower velocity and the mixture traffic
flow are obviously on the urban road network. In the former traffic accidents study,
the emphasis was put on the human cause analysis. For example, in the traffic
accidents statistical data report, the number of human caused accidents accounts for
98.05%, but on the other hand, some of the person’s mistakes where due to the
transport infrastructure design deficiency. So based on the historical data, this paper
analyzes the relationship between the road characters and the traffic accidents, and
the results show that the collisions between the high-speed traffic and lower-speed
traffic occur more on the local streets. With the collisions such as rear-end and lane
change collision between motor vehicles occur more frequently. According to the
above result, this study puts forward the following advice for the traffic manager and
planner.
(1) Measures should be taken to reduce the conflicts between the bicycles and
the motor vehicles, especially at the intersections and the bus-stops. This can be
done by designing the bicycle routes, to reduce the conflict at the bus stop by traffic
management technology and measures.
(2) Traffic management technologies should be taken to make the traffic flow
more homogenous, such as in the traffic guidance information system. Locating the
VMS (Variable Message Sign) appropriately to control the vehicle velocity, or
provide the forecasting information to the driver. Than the compulsory lane-change
behavior, or the rear-end collision can be avoided.
(3)During the urban traffic network planning process, the road function
classification should be considered more. In fact, the phenomenon that the arterial
streets connect with the local streets exists widely in China, and it will cause the
traffic speed to differ a lot. For this reason the occurrence probability of the
collision will increase. In this sense, the better road classification matching is
necessary for reducing the accident occurrence frequency; such that the traffic on the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1306
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arterial streets is collected and dispersed by the collector streets. Then the local
streets mainly connect with the collector streets.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The research is funded by the Chinese National Natural Science Foundation
(50908146) and Shanghai Science & Technology Expert Program (09QT1404900).
REFERENCES
Aimin, S. (2006). “Research on the freeway traffic accidents an countermeasures.”
SouthEast University Thesis for Degree of Master, 2006.
Andrew, V, Zhong, Y, Fan, M., and Wang Y. (2000). “Causes and prevention
measures of expressway accidents.” Journal of Highway and
Transportation Research and Development,17(6):67~72, 2000.
Bared, J. (2001). “Accident models for two-lane rural segments and intersections.”
TRB 80th Annual Meeting, 2001.
Feng, X. (2004). “Study of heavy fog monitoring and warning system for freeway.”
China Journal of Highway and Transport, 17(1):92~97, 2004.
Miller, B. (2001). “Modeling the relationship between roadway geometrics and
collisions.” University of Regina Thesis for Degree of Master, 2001.
Meng, X., Pei Y., and Ma, C. (2000). “Model applied to analyze the traffic accident's
causes on black-spot of freeway.” Journal of Harbin University of Civil
Engineering and Architecture, 33(2):113~116, 2000.
Sheng, C. (2001). “Research on fundamental theory and crucial method of freeway
safety design.” Beijing : Beijing Polytechnic University Thesis for Degree
of Philosophy, 2001.
Wang, C. (2002). “Study on the formation mechanism of carrier catastrophe in the
transportation and its forewarning management system.” Wuhan : Wuhan
University of Technology Thesis for Degree of Philosophy, 2002.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1307
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An Optimal Timing Model for Signalized Roundabout Intersections

Yuntao CHANG1, Yu BAI1 and Daniel(Jian) SUN1

1
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, 4800 Cao’an Road,
Shanghai 201804, China, PH (86-21) 69583695; FAX (86-21) 69583695; email:
crchanghp@163.com

ABSTRACT
This paper presents a general signal control model for roundabout
intersections. By studying the characteristics of signal control and vehicle
movements occurring at roundabout intersections, the wave theory, along with the
HCM2000 delay function, is employed to analyze the features of each part of the
vehicle delay, respectively. By setting the objective function and constraints on
timing split and phase sequence, the paper proposes a theoretical optimal timing
model for roundabout intersections based on the traditional dual ring control pattern.
Finally, a case study was provided to illustrate the effect of the model with numerical
results indicating that the proposed optimal timing model is capable to produce
satisfying timing splits.

INTRODUCTION
Practically, roundabouts have been widely used in many cities in China
because of their many advantages, such as few conflicting points, continuous traffic
flow, driving safety, and easy to manage, etc. However, with the growth of urban
traffic volume, roundabouts are becoming the “bottleneck” of urban traffic because
of their comparable low capacity due to the unique design mechanism. During the
last decade, some researchers have focused on the signal control for roundabouts in
order to improve the capacity (Yang et al., 2000; Xue et al., 2004).
Signalized roundabouts had been put forward in 2000. Yang et al. (Yang et al.,
2000) analyzed the traffic characteristics and problems of roundabouts, explored
their traffic control and management, and proposed three control patterns and
surveyed the corresponding control methods, technical details and applicable
conditions. However, only a brief introduction to the timing method was provided.
Xue et al. (Xue et al., 2004) analyzed the internal mechanism of roundabouts, and
proposed an asymmetric optimal signal timing method for roundabouts in fixed cycle
length. Ma et al. (Ma et al., 2007) divided the green interval of left-turn twice-control
roundabouts into the following parts: the green interval between left-turn on round
lanes and through traffic in the same phase, the interval between left-turn on round
lanes and the next green light, and the green interval between two through phases.
Liu et al. (Liu et al., 2008) improved the twice-left-turn -control pattern and made it
more applicable in multi-leg roundabouts. Zhao et al. (Zhao et al., 2008) compared
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1308
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two signal control methods for roundabouts: twice-left-turn method and single
entrance release method and presented the different application conditions. Yang et al.
(Yang et al., 2008) combined analytic method and computer simulation to develop
delay models for the through and left-turn traffic. Additionally, Chang (Chang, 2009)
also proposed an optimization model for signalized roundabouts to minimize the
average delay. However, with the increased amount of research on signalized
roundabouts, problems are still existing as follows: (1) short of comprehensive
analysis on the conflicts of roundabouts; (2) combination of releases of entrances and
ring lanes; (3) lack of comprehensive models that should be improved from the
perspective of modeling.
In this paper, the dual ring control pattern for traditional four-leg intersection
is applied to the phase sequence of two-step left turn roundabouts. A systematic
optimal timing model for roundabouts is proposed from the modeling aspect.
“TWICE-LEFT-TURN” PATTERN FOR SIGNALIZED ROUNDABOUT
“Two-step” left turn pattern means that the first stop-lines are set at each
approach and the second stop-lines are located at the ring lanes (see Figure 1).
During the red light, vehicles must stop at the first stop-lines. When the light turns
green, the through traffic can pass through the roundabout and the left-turn vehicles
must stop at the second stop-line for green light.

(a) (b)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1309
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(c) (d)
Figure 1. “Two-Step” Left-Turn Pattern.
(a) Through traffic of east-west approaches. (b) Left-turn traffic of east-west
approaches. (c) Through traffic of south-north approaches. (d) Left-turn traffic of
south-north approaches.

DUAL RING CONTROL PATTERN

Figure 2 shows the standard dual ring signal control pattern for traditional
four-leg intersections, with no more than two through and left-turn phases for each
approach. Through the flexible change of phases, different phase combination of dual
ring signal control pattern can be constructed. For the existing conflict characteristics
of left-turning vehicle on the roundabout, the dual ring pattern should be adjusted.

Figure 2. The Standard Dual Ring Signal Control Pattern.

OPTIMAL TIMING MODEL FOR SIGNALIZED ROUNDABOUT
Analysis of vehicle delay
Analysis of first-stop-line traffic delay
The first-stop-line flow includes left-turn and through vehicles, whose delays
are same to traditional four-leg intersections. The same model is used to calculate the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1310
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delays:
Assuming that a four-leg roundabout with i approaches (i = 4), according to
the HCM 2000, the left-turn and through traffic delays of the ith approach can be
obtained through the following formulas:
0.5C (1   iL1 ) 2  qL q ilL 8eq iL1 
d iL1 (C ,  iL1 )   900T  ( il
 1)  (  1) 2
  (1)
qL   i1 S i1  iL1 S iL1  iL1 S iL1 T 
L L 2 2
1  min(1, L i1 L ) iL1
 i1 S i1
0.5C (1  Ti1 ) 2  qT q ilT 8eIq iT1 
d (C ,  ) 
T T

 900T ( T T  1)  ( T T  1)  2 2
il 2
 (2)
  i1 S i1  i1 S i1
i1 i1
q iT1 Ti1 S iT1 T 
1  min(1, ) i1
Ti1 S iT1
where,
C: Signal cycle time (s);
Ti1 : Green ratio of first-stop-line green light of the ith approach;

qiL1 、 qiT1 : Left-turn and through traffic flows of the ith approach, unit: (pcu/s);

S iL1 、 S iT1 : Saturation flow rates of the ith approach, unit: (pcu/s); and

e : Control parameter, set as 0.5 for fixed-timing signalized intersections

Analysis of second-stop-line traffic delay
The paper employs the wave theory to analyze the arrival and discharge
procedure, and establishes the second-stop-line delay model based on Xue (2003).
For simplicity, the vehicle acceleration and deceleration were ignored, assuming that
no original remained vehicle queues exist on the second stop-line. The process of
left-turn vehicles passing through the first and second stop-lines was shown as in
Figure 3.
r eL
i2 g
eL
i2

flow with delay flow without dela

d L
ih1

N .h (1...m...n).hiu
L L L
is is

saturated Random arrival

geL
i1

Figure 3. Delay Of Second-Stop Line Traffic.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1311
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The delay of second-stop-line traffic of the ith approach can be divided into
two parts. The first is the delay of saturated flow passing through the first stop-line,
designated as ( DiL21 ), while the other one is of stochastic flow, which passes through

the first stop-line in the late period, referred to as ( DiL22 ). In the case that the green
offset between second-stop-line and first-stop-line is perfectly coordinated, left-turn
vehicles can pass through the second stop-line without a stop, and consequently, free
of delays at the second stop-line.
(1) The delay of saturated flow

A B

Figure 4. The Key Conflict Points Of Roundabout.

The number of saturated flow vehicles passing through the first stop-line
equals the queuing of left-turn vehicles at the end of the first-stop-line red light.
According to the analysis of Xue (2008), the delay of left-turn saturated flow on the
second stop-line in one cycle can be calculated by the following formulas:
DiL21  N iSL d ihL1 ； (3)
d ihL1  g ieL1  I iL2  t ihL1 ； (4)
li1  li 2
t ihL1  (5)
virL
where,
N iSL : Saturated volumes arriving at the second stop-line of the ith approach;
d ihL1 : Delay of the first left-turn vehicle on the second stop-line of the ith
approach (s);
g ieL1 : Effective left-turn green time at the first stop-line of the ith approach,
g ieL1  iL1  C (s);
I iL2 : Green interval between the first-stop-line left-turn green and the
second-stop-line green of the ith approach (s);
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1312
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t ihL1 : Travel time of the first left-turn vehicle passing from the first stop-line to
the second one of the ith approach (s);
li1 , li 2 : Distance from the first stop-line to conflict point A, and distance from A
to the second stop-line of the ith approach (m). (See Figure 4).
When the left-turn saturation is low, the number of queuing left-turn vehicles
can be obtained by the steady theory. Here, McNeil’s theory is used to calculate the
vehicle number NS of saturated flow passing through the stop line during the green
light.
0.5 x iL1 0.5q iL1
NS  q r  L L
 q i1  (1   i1 )  C  L
L L

(1  x iL1 )  i1  S iL1  q iL1

i1 i1

0.5qiL1
 qiL1  (1  iL1 )  C  (6)
iL1  S iL1  qiL1
q iL1
Where xiL1  denotes the saturation, qiL1 denotes the arrival rate of
iL1  S iL1
left-turn vehicles of the ith approach and nirL denotes the number of left-turn round
lane of the ith approach.
When the left-turn flow are nearly saturated or oversaturated, the queuing
vehicles of the first stop-line are more than the capacity during green time and all the
passing vehicles during the green times are saturated flows. In this case, the number
of saturated flows (Nd) of each cycle can be calculated by the following formula:
N d  g ieL1  S iL1  iL1  C  S iL1 (7)

Where,
qiL1 : Left-turn vehicles of the ith approach (pcu/s);
g ieL1 : Effective first-stop-line left-turn green time of the ith approach (s);
i1L : Green ratio of first-stop-line left-turn green light;
S iL1 : Saturated left-turn flow (pcu/s);
Obviously,
DiL21  N iSL  d ihL1  min( N s , N d )  d ihL1 (8)
(2) The delay of stochastic flow
In Figure 3, the shaded area denotes the delay of stochastic flow. Thus, we
can obtain the following formulations:

0 g ieL1  N isL  hisL
 L
DiL22
m

  i  2d ihL1  (miL  1)  (hiuL  hisL )  N isL  hisL  g ieL1  N isL  hisL  niL  hiuL
(9)
 2
 niL
2

  2d ih1  (ni  1)  (hiu  his )
L L L L
 g ieL1  N isL  hisL  niL  hiuL

where,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1313
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miL  ( g ieL1  N isL  hisL ) / hiuL , niL  d ihL1 /(hiuL  hisL ) ;

hisL , hiuL : Headways of saturated and random-arrival left-turn flow, and
hisL  1 / S iL1 , hiuL  1 / qiL1 , (s);
In order to facilitate solution of the problem, we set:
g i01L  max[ N isL  hisL , min( g ieL1 , ( N isL  hisL  niL  hiuL ))] (10)
So we have:
miL  ( g i01L  N isL  hisL ) / hiuL (11)
Then the piecewise function (9) can be transformed as single one:
DiL22 
miL
2

 2d ihL1  (miL  1)  (hiuL  hisL ) 
(12)
Therefore, the total delay of left-turn vehicles can be formulated as:
DL  DL 
N L  d L  0.5miL  2d ihL1  (miL  1)  (hiuL  hisL )
d iL2  iL21 L i 22  is ih1 (13)

qi1  i1  C qiL1  iL1  C
Optimal timing model
Basic idea of timing
The basic idea of timing for roundabouts is to determine the reasonable green
time of the first stop line and the green time and green offset of the second stop line
on the ring lane. To this end, vehicles can pass through the roundabout and the total
delay can be minimized.
Objective function
Based on the analysis in the previous section, the formulation of total delay
on the roundabout is expressed as:
D   Di   ( Di1  DiL2 )   ( DiT1  DiL1  DiL2 )
i i i

  (QiT1  d iT1  QiL1 (d iL1  d iL2 )) (14)

i

where QiL1 and QiT1 represent the left-turn volume and through volume of i

approach, respectively, and the unit is pcu/h.

Given the volumes (q) of all approaches in different directions and the
corresponding saturation flow rates, the delay equation (14) is a function of cycle
time (C), green ratio (λ), green offset (O), green interval (I) and loss time (L). The
objective function with minimum total delay is given as follows (the variables in
boldface are vector variables):
min D  f (C , λ , O , I , L ) (15)

Constraints
(1) Phases setting
In order to pass through the roundabout, left-turn vehicles generally have to
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1314
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wait for a green light twice. Thus, it needs to set up two signal phases for each
left-turn flow based on the locations of first and second stop-lines (see the boxes with
bold lines in Figure 5).

Figure 5. Dual Ring Signal Control Pattern For Roundabouts.

(2) Constraints on the control pattern and phase sequence
 Dual ring control constraints:

WT 1  I W 1  LW 1 C   E 2  TE1  I E1  LE1 C  W 2

 T
 S 1  I S 1  LS 1 C   N 2   N 1  I N 1  LN 1 C   S 2
T
(16)
 T
W 1   E 2   S 1   N 2  I W 1  I S 1  ( LW 1  LS 1 ) C  1
T

 Round lane capacity constraint:

The passing volumes at the first stop-lines cannot exceed the capacity of
round lane ( N iRL ), or the queue would spill back from the round lane;

iL1  C  S iL1  N iRL ； (17)

 Left-turn green offset constraint:

Left-turn green light at the first stop-line must stop before through traffic
stops, otherwise the through green light can be delayed to stop at the same time with
the left-turn green light;
Ti1  Oi  iL1 (18)

 Second stop-line green time constraint:

Only when all the left-turn waiting vehicles at the second stop-line have
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1315
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dissipated can the subsequent phase for through traffic start. To this end, the traffic
flow interweaving is avoided. If left-turn vehicles always have to queue up at the
second stop-line, we obtain: iL2  C  qiL1  (iL1  C )  hisL , that is:

iL2  qiL1 / S iL2  iL1  0 (19)

In the case that stochastic flows can pass the first and second stop-lines
behind the rear of left-turn traffic, if the last through vehicle passes the conflicting
point B (see Figure 4) before the subsequent through phase starts, it guarantees the
left-turn traffic no conflict with the through traffic because the phase of through
traffic at the first stop-line generally ends later than left-turn phase. Hence, we can
get the following constraints:
tWT  ( I W 1  C  LW 1 )   E 2  C
T
t S  ( I S 1  C  LS 1 )   N 2  C
T (20)
t E  ( I E1  C  LE1 )  W 2  C
t T  ( I  C  L )    C
N N1 N1 S2

where,
Ti1 : Green ratio of through traffic at the first stop-line of the ith approach, and i
can be 1 (east), 2 (west), 3 (south), and 4 (north);
 : Green ratio of first-stop-line left-turn greet light of the ith approach;
L
i1

i 2 : Green ration of second-stop-line left-turn green light of the ith approach;

Oin: Ratio of the different between starting times of first-stop-line left-turn phase
and through phase of the ith approach to the signal cycle (C);
Ii : Ratio of the green interval between first-stop-line through phase of the ith
approach and second-stop-line green light of the opposite approach to the
cycle time;
Li: Loss time of first-stop-line through phase of the ith approach, (s);
SiL1 : Saturation flow rate of first-stop-line left-turn lane of the ith approach,
(pcu/s);
T
ti : The time that guarantees the through traffic at the first stop-line passes
through the second stop-line of the ith approach without stop, (s).
Formulas (14)-(20) form a relatively complete optimal timing model of
four-leg signalized roundabouts based on dual ring control pattern, which becomes a
non-linear optimization problem. The optimization tools in MATLAB were
employed to obtain the solution of the above model.
CASE STUDIES
Table 1 is the volume of a roundabout in a Chinese city. Field observation
shows the current traffic demand has exceeded the capacity. The traffic is generally
out of order and all vehicles interlock with each other and the level of service (LOS)
is very low (average delay is more than 60 s/pcu).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1316
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Table 1. Volumes of All Approaches. *L: left-turn, T: through, R: right-turn

East West South North
Total
L T R L T R L T R L T R
238 648 647 490 762 220 152 1023 368 463 621 579 6211
To improve the capability of the roundabout, we adopt the two-step left-turn
control pattern introduced in this paper. The channelization design of this roundabout
is shown in Figure 4. It has a center island with a radius of 22 m. On each approach,
there are four lanes including two through lanes, one left-turn lane and one right-turn
lane. One of the three round lanes is for the left-turn traffic at the second stop-line.
The saturation flow rate of each lane is about 1500 pcu/h,and the loss time of each
split is 4 s.
By applying the proposed model, the optimal signal control scheme was
obtained as shown in Figure 6. The results show that delay of the roundabout is
reduced to 37.6 s, reaching LOS of grade D. Because the signal eliminates the wave
and vehicle confliction, the traffic can run in a better order.

West,1st stop line,

through
West,1st stop line,
left turn
West,2nd stop line

East,1st stop line,

through
East,1st stop line,
left turn
East,2nd stop line

North,1st stop line,

through
North,1st stop line,
left turn
North,2nd stop line

South,1st stop line,

through
South,1st stop line,
left turn
South,2nd stop line

Figure 6. Optimal Timing.

The case study shows that the proposed optimal timing model can efficiently
improve the signalized roundabout operation order and LOS.
CONCLUSIONS
This paper proposed a signalized roundabout intersection optimal timing
model based on dual ring control pattern. A nonlinear optimization programming
problem was formulated to describe the control theory and find out the optimal
solution. The model was coded and solved in MATLAB software package.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1317
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Additionally, the case study demonstrates that the model and the solution method
have good performance in the roundabout control timing optimization problem.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors acknowledge the support from: (1) the Young Scientist Project of
NSFC: Traffic Applicability Theory Research on Signal Controlled Roundabout
Intersection (No.: 50708080), (2) National High Technology Research and
Development Program of China (863 Program, No.: 2009AA11Z220), and (3) the
Key Project of NSFC: Urban traffic network optimization and control (No.:
70631002).
REFERENCES
Liu, H.B., Deng, W., and Li, D.Y. (2008). “Research on signal control method for
complex roundabout.” Journal of Road Traffic and Safety, 8(2), 39-43.
Ma, Y.Y., Yang X.G., and Zeng Y. (2007). “Calculating method of intergreen interval
for roundabout.” Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and
Development. 24(7), 95-98.
Xue, K. (2003). “Study on the signal control theory at cross roundabout.” Master
Dissertation of Tongji University, Shanghai.
Xue, K, Yang, X.G., and Bai, Y. (2004). “Optimization of control method for
roundabout at fixed cycle.” Journal Of Highway And Transportation
Research And Development, 21(5), 83-87.
Yang, J.D., Yang, X.G., and Peng, G.X. (2000). “Mode of traffic control in
ring-intersection.” Journal Of Highway And Transportation Research And
Development, 17(3), 47-51.
Yang, X.G., Zhao, J., and Wang T. (2008). “Optimal cycle calculation method of
signal control at roundabout.” China Journal of Highway and Transport,
21(6), 90-95.
Zhao, J., Yu, X.F., Bai, Y., and Wang T. (2008). “Comparison between two methods
of signal design for cross roundabouts.” Journal of Changsha
Communications University, 24(3), 53-58.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1318
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Comparative Study of Channelization Designs for Intersection Widening

Transition Zones

Jian RONG1, Meng-jia WANG2, Ming GONG1 and Jian-ming MA1

1
Traffic Engineering Laboratory, College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing
University of Technology, P.O. Box 10024, Beijing 100124; PH (010) 6739-2082; FAX (010)
6739-1509; E-mail: jrong@bjut.edu.cn
2
Texas Department of Transportation Traffic Operations Division, 118 East Riverside Dr.Austin,
TX 78704 USA; Phone: +1 (512) 416-3223; Fax: +1 (512)
416-3299;E-mail:JMa@dot.state.tx.us

ABSTRACT
Due to the lack of detailed designs for the channelization at widened intersection
approaches in Beijing, it is not unusual to encounter a through lane that changes to a
left-turn lane without any transition in between. This paper first compares widened
intersections in Beijing with America (Austin, TX) by analyzing traffic flow
characteristics and actual vehicle tracking. The results show that this type of design
more likely confuses drivers and causes unnecessary merging, which in turn
deteriorates traffic operations and safety at the intersection. The typical form in
Beijing and two design forms of Austin are evaluated using simulation. It is shown in
simulation that both of the Austin designs perform better than the existing Beijing
design in terms of measures of effectiveness (MOEs), such as delay and queue length.
It is noted that intersection approach channelization and lane arrangement should be
designed consistent with road condition.

BACKGROUND
Even though more and more roads are being constructed in Beijing, traffic
congestion has not been effectively alleviated due to the rapid development of the
economy and remarkable growth of vehicle ownership. A lack of elaborate roadway
design guidelines is an important reason for heavy travel delays experienced by
commuters. In urban transportation systems, an intersection, as the node of roadway
networks, is a restriction of road capacity. It has a high crash frequency, especially at
the flared intersection approaches. If unreasonable channelization and markings are
used, it is more likely to confuse drivers and cause unnecessary merging, which in
turn deteriorates traffic operations and safety at the intersection.
Not until 2009 did China have the Road Traffic Signs and Markings manual, in
which the design guidelines for widening transition zones were established for the
first time, and the application of this manual resulted in varieties of widening
transition zones in Beijing. Compared with Beijing, Austin has more experience
designing transition zones at intersection approaches. Not only have they developed
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1319
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the integrated policy and standards for channelization and markings at intersection
approaches, but Austin also has extensive application, which avoids weaving activity
at widening transition zones of widened intersections, and makes vehicle movement
safe, comfortable and smooth.
DEVELOPMENT SITUATION OF WIDENED INTERSECTION
Application situation
Of all Beijing widened intersections, 90 percent have adopted the similar form
shown in Figure 1 at widening transition zones. Figure 2 shows a typical channelized
widened intersection in Austin, with a left-turn lane implemented by reducing
median width. For the reason that medians are quite common and wide enough in
America, most of the widened intersections have adopted this form without shifting
the center line of roads. Only in the minor street when there is a narrow or no median,
will the center line get shifted. In the latter case, widened intersections will be
adopted by shifting road center-line and reducing lane width.

Figure1.Typical Beijing Widened Intersection. Figure 2. Typical Austin Widened Intersection.

Figure 3. Widened Intersection of Shifting Road Center Line in Austin.

Study situation
In the Road Traffic Signs and Markings manual issued in 2009, China made
detailed design guidelines for transition zone markings at the widened intersections.
It indicates that intersection markings design should aim at being safe, ordered and
effective. Whether to add a left or right-turn lane should be based on the actual
conditions of intersection and traffic flow. To add a new lane, the appropriate method
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1320
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to widen the intersection and reduce lane width should be considered. When it can
not fulfill needs or can not be adopted because of the limit of road conditions, the
following methods may be employed in order: Reduce median width; reduce median
width and lane width; shift road center line and reduce lane width; finally, reduce
shoulder width and bicycle lane width. In the manual, it also provides graphic
examples and the methods for calculating parameters.
In the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices, America made a detailed
specification on how to add a right or left-turn lane. Contrary to China, it reduces the
designs mentioned above to the following two types: Shifting road center line and
reducing median width without shifting road center line. It also includes a graphic
example and method for calculating parameters.
Besides the manuals mentioned above, there have been numerous research
studies on channelization design at the widened intersection; however, most of them
mainly aimed at the signal plan and the widened intersection capacity, rarely being
concerned with the deficiency of the detailed channelization design and application.
As is commonly known, smooth traffic stream line is the base of improving
intersection capacity and maintaining safety, so it is necessary to study the detailed
channelization design and its application at the widened intersections.
ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC FLOW CHARACTERISTICS
Analysis of traffic flow characteristics in Beijing widened intersections
Figure 4 shows the typical form of the widening transition zone at a Beijing
widened intersection, in which a new left-turn lane was added by reducing median
width and connecting lane line without channelization. This form of widening
transition zone has a great impact on other lanes, as well as a big shift and leads to
regular through vehicles having to make large lateral movements, causing drivers to
feel uncomfortable driving through the intersection. This type of design increases the
likelihood of traffic collisions due to irregular lane changing maneuvers.
This form of widened intersection has little consideration on how to organize
traffic flow, and channelize lanes for different turning movements. It causes
unsmooth traffic flow which in turn increases the possibility of traffic crashes.

Figure 4. Typical Form of Beijing Widened Intersection.

Figure 5 shows a typical form of widened intersection in Austin, which adds a
new integrated left-turn lane only by reducing the median width. This design is
relatively simple, has little impact on other lanes, and there is no reduction in lane
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1321
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width. At the widening transition zone, left-turn and through vehicles get into their
own lanes in the form of diverging flow, so the whole intersection is safe and
efficient.

Figure 5. Austin Widened Intersection of Non-Shifting Road Center-Line.

When it is impossible to reduce the median width, the road center line can be
shifted and lane width reduced to add a left-turn lane, as shown in Figure 6. In order
to avoid merging conflicts resulted from lane changing, vehicles are required to get
into the left lane before they arrive at the left-turn lane. These vehicles’ travel paths
will tend to be straight lines. Behind the widening transition zone, left-turn vehicles
enter into the left-turn lane in the form of diverging flow, totally eliminating the
weaving action.

Figure 6. Austin Widened Intersection of Shifting Road Center Line.

A reasonable widening transition zone should be that left and right-turn vehicles
enter into their own lanes in the form of diverging flow, and through vehicles
laterally move as little as possible. Compared with Beijing, America’s widened
intersection is more reasonable because through vehicles are little influenced, and
turning is diverging instead of weaving. The reasonable widened intersection makes
driving more safe and comfortable.
ACTUAL OPERATION ANALYSIS OF WIDENED INTERSECTIONS
Through field researching of typical Beijing and Austin widened intersections,
and analyzing on-site video, making use of SIMI software, the following conclusions
were attained.
Actual operation analysis of Beijing widened intersection
From the vehicle tracking shown in Figure 7, we can see that vehicles laterally move
a considerable amount and frequently change lanes. There are three conflict points
created from traffic weaving at four entrance lanes. Statistics found that lane
changing due to unreasonable channelization is about 40 percent of the total amount
of lane changing, and 10 percent of the total traffic volume during off-peak periods.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1322
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During peak periods, lane changing resulted from unreasonable channelization is

about 30 percent of the total amount of lane changing, and 10 percent of the total
traffic volume. It creates a significant amount of traffic weaving, which seriously
reduces the intersection capacity.
According to the field observation, in order to avoid being interfered by
left-turn vehicles, drivers move out of the left most lanes in advance, which directly
leads to a low lane utilization rate tens of meters before the widening transition zone.
Statistics found that one hundred meters before the widening transition zone, traffic
volume of the left most lane is as low as a quarter of the adjacent lane, resulting in a
large waste of road resources.

100

lane line
80 marking

lane line
marking

60 lane line
marking

lane line
marking

40 lane line
marking

lane line
marking

20 through vehicles

left-turn
vehicles
0 through vehicles

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
lane-changing
vehicles
-20 through vehicles

lane-changing
vehicles
-40

-60

Figure 7. Vehicle Tracking of Beijing Widened Intersection.

According to the field observation, if the left-turn lane is not long enough, the
queue of left-turn vehicles extends into through lanes during peak periods, which
may block through vehicles and thus causes unnecessary delays. Statistics found that,
during peak periods, more than 50 percent of left-turn vehicles are mingled in with
through vehicles, creating a queue every signal cycle, which seriously interferes the
efficiency of through vehicles.
Actual operation analysis of Austin widened intersection
From the vehicle tracking shown in Figure 8, it can be seen that all vehicles
proceed orderly through the widening transition zone at this widened intersection.
The left-turn and through vehicles in the left most lane proceed through the
intersection in the form of diverging flow, and through vehicles in other lanes rarely
have any lateral movement, which is consistent with drivers expectations. The
intersection is safe and effective.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1323
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lane line
50 marking

lane line
marking
40
lane line
marking
30
lane line
marking

20 lane line
marking

lane line
10 marking

through
vehichles
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 through vehicles

-10
through vehicles

-20 left-turn
vehicles

-30

Figure 8. Vehicle Tracking of Non-Shifting Road Center Line.

60
55
50
45
40 lane line
marking
35
30
25
left-turn
20 vehicles
15
10
5
through
0 vehicles
-5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
-10
-15 through
-20 vehicles
-25
-30
-35
-40

Figure 9. Vehicle Tracking of Shifting Road Center Line.

As shown in Figure 9, the vehicle tracking of Austin widened intersections, of
which road center line has been shifted, is smooth and has no conflict in front of the
widening transition zone. All vehicles run mostly in a straight line, which meets
drivers’ expectations. The left-turn and through vehicles in the most left lane proceed
through the intersection in the form of diverging flow. The intersection is safe and
effective.
SIMULATION AND EVALUATION
The simulation model used in this research was VISSIM (Vortish, 2005),
version 3.70. VISSIM consists of two primary components: Traffic simulator and
signal state generator. The traffic simulator is a microscopic simulation model
comprised of car-following logic and lane-changing logic. Instead of using constant
speeds and deterministic car-following models, VISSIM uses the psychophysical
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1324
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driver-behavior model developed by Wiedemann(1974), which is closer to

field-driving behavior. At the same time, previous studies indicated that VISSIM can
replicate field measures of performance well after calibration.
There are three models that were set up in this simulation test. Case 1 is a
widened intersection of shifting road center line. Case 2 is a widened intersection of
non-shifting road center line. Case 3 is an actual condition that a through lane
changes to a left-turn lane without any transition in between. Using microscopic
traffic simulation mode, VISSIM, the traffic operation performance was evaluated.
Experiment design
Road conditions: The type of road segment is two-way with four lanes, 3.5
meters per lane. The intersection has four legs with a four-lane approach from all
directions. Only one direction was analyzed in the simulation model. The approach
of the intersection contained two through lanes, an exclusive right-turn lane and an
exclusive left-turn lane, and all lanes were three meters wide. In Case 1, the approach
taper length was 40 meters; bay taper length was 20 meters. In Case 2, the bay taper
length was 20 meters. In Case 3, the taper length was 20 meters. Storage length was
50 meters in all three cases.
Vehicle conditions: In order to simplify factors, only private cars were
considered. Expected speed was 51.2km/h; maximum speed was 58 km/h; minimum
speed was 48 km/h.
Traffic counts setting: There were seven sets of traffic counts in the
simulation model as variable, 1000 pcu/h, 1100 pcu/h, 1200 pcu/h, 1300 pcu/h, 1400
pcu/h, 1500 pcu/h, and 1600 pcu/h. There were 3×7=21 scenarios. Considering
traffic capacity, the capacity of approaches was estimated in pro-simulation between
1600 pcu/h and 1700 pcu/h.
Signal timing settings: Cycle length 90 s, 4-phase, steady yellow time 3 s, left
turn green time 12 s, through green time 27 s.
To reduce stochastic variability, multiple runs were conducted with different
random seeds. Matlab tools were used to produce random seeds, and ten random
seeded runs were conducted for each of the 21 scenarios, for a total of 210 runs. The
results from the ten multiple runs for each scenario were then averaged to represent
each of the 21 cases.
Calibration
In order to well replicate the field situation such as traffic flow performance,
intersection geometric characteristic, and enhance accuracy of simulation results,
relative parameters in the simulation model need to be calibrated (Park, 2006). Traffic
operating performances in the three models were different. Generally, three models
need to be calibrated by three parameter sets, respectively. However, the objective of
this paper was to evaluate the three different types of transitions, a comparative
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1325
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evaluation. Similar to previous studies (e.g., Hong, 2006; Jian, 2007), the parameters
in Wiedemann74 model were calibrated for all three models. The values for average
expected distance, bx_add and bx_mult were 2 meters, 2.75 meters and 3.75 meters,
respectively.
Measures of effectiveness
Many measures of effectiveness (MOEs) were easily obtained from the
simulation model, VISSIM. Three measures of effectiveness, density, lane change
rate and average speed, were selected. Density and average speed were collected
from VISSIM output files directly. Density is the number of vehicles occupying a
given length of highway or lane and is generally expressed as vehicles per kilometer
per lane. It is converted from the number of vehicles per 10 meters. Lane change rate
(LCR) was collected indirectly. The number of lane change divided by total volume
is the LCR.
Analyzing
As shown in Figure 10, lane change rate was relevant with traffic volume
when traffic volume as variable changed from 1000-1500 pcu/h. Lane change rate
reached the maximum while traffic volume was 1500 pcu/h.
When traffic volume was below 1500 pcu/h, there was much distance
between the leading vehicle and following vehicle. Vehicles tend to keep speed at an
expected value. Higher lane change rates were associated with heavier traffic volume.
When traffic volume reached 1500 pcu/h, due to the increasing of density, the
distance between two adjacent vehicles was decreased. Lane change rate hit the
maximum of 1500 pcu/h, and then decreased as the traffic volume increased beyond
that amount.
Based on Figure 10 data, the difference between the 3 cases significantly
increased when traffic volume reached more than 1200 pcu/h. The lane change rate
of Case 3 was the highest, and the most vehicle conflicts in the travel lane were
produced. The lane change rate of Case 2 was in the middle of the 3 cases. Case 1
had relatively the lowest rate of lane change and minimum conflict, and was the
safest one.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1326
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Figure 10. Vehicle Lane Change Rate.

Considering the relationship between lane change rate and traffic volume, a
traffic volume of 1500 pcu/h was selected for further simulation. Density is an
important MOE and is normally used to evaluate traffic flow characteristics. Figure
11 shows density on the various parts of the segment for the traffic volume of 1500
pcu/h. The X-axis represents the study site from the starting point of the approach
taper. The length evaluated in the simulation models was 150 meters.
Density increases as the distance is shortened. The density of Case 1 was the
minimum and the density of Case 3 was fluctuant and higher than Case 2.

Figure 11. Density for the Traffic Volume 1500 pcu/h.

Figure 12 shows average spot speed for the traffic volume of 1500 pcu/h. The
X-axis represents the study site from the starting point of the approach taper. The
length evaluated in the simulation models was 150 meters.
The average spot speed of Case 3 was lower than that of the other two cases,
and the average spot speed of Case 1 was the maximum.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1327
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Figure 12. Average Spot Speed for the Traffic Volume 1500 pcu/h.
Results
Three types of channelization for left-turn traffic were evaluated based on
simulation models. Simulation results show that Case 1, shifting of road center line,
was the optimal case. In this type of channelization condition, vehicle conflicts were
the lowest of each type. It creates better safety and lower density. Vehicle driving
comfort and road operation efficiency were both enhanced.
CONCLUSIONS
This paper has discussed three types of channelization at signalized
intersection approaches, aiming at the problem of unreasonable channelization for
left-turn traffic. Traffic flow operating characteristics in different types of
channelization, potential safety and influence on capacity of intersections were
analyzed. Microscopic simulation model, VISSIM, was used to evaluate operation
performance of three types of intersections. Results indicated that two types of
channelization, proposed in this paper, have better performance than the existing
design which is widely used.
With the development of urban road network, enhancing travel efficiency for
left-turn movements was meaningful. Hopefully, this paper can give engineers
additional useful references.

REFERENCES
Elmitiny, N., Yan, X., Radwan, E., Russo, C., and Nashar, D. (2010). "Classification
analysis of driver's stop/go decision and red-light running violation".
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1328
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Accident Analysis & Prevention, 42, 101-111.

Hong, Y., Shengfeng, H., and Xiaohong, C. (2006). "Parameter calibration and
application for the VISSIM simulation model". Urban Transport of China,
22-25. (in Chinese)
Jian, S., Xiao-guang, Y., and Hao-de, L. (2007). "Study on microscopic traffic
simulation model systematic parameter calibration". Journal of System
Simulation, 48-51. (in Chinese)
Park, B., and Qi, H. (2006). "Microscopic simulation model calibration and
validation for freeway work zone network-a case study of VISSIM". : 85rd
Annual Meeting Preprint CD-ROM, Transportation Research Board,
Washington, DC, pp. 1471-1476.
Vortish, P. (2005). VISSIM Version 4.2 Manual. karlsruher: PTV Planung Transport
Verkehr AG.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1329
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An Automatic Phase and Sequence Design Method for Isolated Intersections

Yuhua ZHAO 1, and Zhaocheng HE 2

1
Intelligent Transportation Research Centre; Sun Yat-sen University; Guangzhou
510275; China; email: jiaojiao0225@sina.com.cn
2
Associate Professor, Intelligent Transportation Research Centre; Sun Yat-sen
University; Guangzhou 510275; China

ABSTRACT
Phase and sequence design is the first step in the signal control of an
intersection. Poor phase and sequence design may result in inefficient control
strategy. An automatic process is proposed to generate the optimal phase and
sequence based on traffic flow, saturation flow and intersection geometry.
Considering traffic operation efficiency and safety, the principles and evaluating
indexes of phases are discussed and analyzed first. Then the following four issues are
discussed in detail. First, symmetry phase and each phase for an entrance are
compared in capacity, conflict points, delay, equilibrium of saturation, inter-stage
loss and other indexes; second, develop the threshold from permitted to protected
left-turn phasing; third, analyze the sequence of the phases which are essentially due
to the position of conflict points; and fourth, the calculation and the thresholds of
Overlapped phase are discussed. Considering these four issues, the automatic process
of phase generating is established.

INTRODUCTION
Phase and sequence design is the first step in signal control of isolated
intersection. Poor phase and sequence design may result in inefficient control
strategy. Whether the traffic flow can be evenly distributed in time and space mainly
depends on phase design, which even has influence on delay, capacity and safety of
the intersection. The relationship between phase design and signal timing are
qualitative and quantitative relationship.
Intersection signal timing design has been established using Webster’s
optimization and other guidelines (such as HCM), while the study of phase and
sequence design is scarce. Some optimization methods are proposed to generate
optimal phases, such as the stepping optimization method (Wang, 2007), the making
up minimum traffic volume method (Wang, 2008), and so on. These pure
mathematical methods often reach a superior result, but some of the results tend to
not be suitable for driving customs or intersection geometry.
Thus, traffic parameters, driving customs and intersection geometry should all
be taken into account in phase and sequence design. Focusing on the three factors
above, an automatic process is proposed to generate optimal phase and sequence.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1330
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Four issues are discussed in detail. First, symmetry phase and each phase for an
entrance are compared in capacity, conflict points, delay, equilibrium of saturation,
inter-stage loss and other indexes; second, develop thresholds from permitted to
protected left-turn phasing and the phase style of right-turn phase; third, analyze the
sequence of phases which are essentially due to the position of conflict points; and
fourth, the calculation and thresholds of Overlapped phase are discussed.
Considering these four issues above, the automatic process of phase generating is
established. The following figure presents the research framework.
 

Figure 1. Research Framework of Phase and Sequence Design.

Phase design starts from two basic phases: NS (north and south) and WE (west
and east) apart. The first thing to consider should be choosing a symmetry phase or
each phase for an entrance, which are mainly two types of phases. If symmetry phase
is chosen, phase style of left-turn and right-turn should be determined. Then it comes
to the issue of phase sequence. Both symmetry phase and each phase for an entrance
have more than one phase sequence, the position of conflict points help select the
best one. Finally, if meeting the threshold, Overlapped phase can be used in some
specific case, such as tidal flow which mostly happens in morning and evening rush
hours. Following these steps above, phases fit for the intersection is generated.
PHASE AND SEQUENCE DESIGN Symmetry phase and each phase for an
entrance
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a b

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

Figure 2(a). Symmetry Phase. Figure 2(b). Each Phase for an Entrance.
Symmetry phase and each phase for an entrance are the most common phases in
phase and sequence design. How to choose them for different intersections has
become more and more important nowadays. In the following text, capacity, conflict
points, delay, equilibrium of saturation, inter-stage loss and other indexes are selected
to compare them.
Capacity comparing
I
Capacity of an intersection is: C = ∑ Sni ui (1)
i =1

I I
And ∑ ni = N ; ∑ ui = U
i =1 i =1
(2)

S—saturation of a signal lane; I—number of phases (suppose it is a fixed value in

an intersection); ni—the number of lanes in phase i; ui—the green ratio in phase i;
U—the green ratio of the intersection (suppose it is a fixed value in an intersection).
According to F. Webster’s timing method, ui ∝qimax (qimax means the maximum
quantity of all traffic flows), and the following three conclusions can be drawn:
i) While ni (qimax) is the same in each phase, the capacity is a fixed value
SNU
( C = CO = ), which has nothing to do with the relationship between ni and
I
qimax, neither maximum nor minimum.
ii) While a bigger ni corresponds to a smaller qimax (a smaller ni corresponds to a
bigger qimax), C0＞C.
iii) While a bigger ni corresponds to a bigger qimax (a smaller ni corresponds to a
smaller qimax), C＞C0.
Situation i) constantly appears in each phase for an entrance, while situation ii)
and iii) mostly happens in symmetry phase. Thus, if a bigger ni corresponds to a
bigger qimax, symmetry phase is better, on the contrary, if a bigger ni corresponds to a
smaller qimax, each phase for an entrance is better choice.
Conflict points comparing
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Figure 3(a). Conflict Points in an Figure 3(b). Conflict Points of

Intersection. Motorized and Non-motorized
Vehicles.
Conflict points, to some extent, reflect intersection safety. Conflict points in an
intersection are shown in Figure 3(a). There are three kinds of conflict points:
crossing conflict points, confluence conflict points, and split conflict points. (Listed
by the sequence of influence to intersection safety) (Wang et al., 2008). There are
more split conflict points in each phase for an entrance because straight flow and
left-turn flow are in the same phase.
As showed in Figure 3(b), non-motorized vehicles have to encounter more
conflict points in each phase for an entrance rather than symmetry phase.
Delay comparing
Both symmetry phase and each phase for an entrance can generate less delay in
different conditions. (Webster, 1958) It is associated with the quantity in an entrance
(Qe), the proportion of left turns (Py) and the dissymmetry coefficient (Cd).
yL qmax
Py = , Cd = (3)
yS qo

yL —flow rate of left turns (per lane); yS —flow rate of the straight lane (per lane).
qmax — the larger quantity of an entrance in a phase, vph; qo — the opposite of the
larger quantity entrance (the smaller quantity of an entrance in a phase), vph.
Three experiments are done to study how these three parameters have an
influence on intersection delay. Table 1 shows these three experiments.
Table 1. Conditions of the Three Experiments.
Qe(vph) Py Cd
Experiment 1 800 change from35%to108% 1
Experiment 2 change from 800-1200 50%, 66%, 90% 1
Experiment 3 800 50% change from 1 to 1.5
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different proportion of left turns

40

35

delay(veh/h)
30

25

20

15

10

35% 42% 50% 58% 67% 76% 86% 96% 108%

the proportion of left turns

Figure 4. Result of Experiment1. -- different proportion of left turns.

different quantity in an entrance different quantity in an entrance
(the proportion of left turns is 90%) (the proportion of left turns is 66%)

100
150
80
delay(veh/h)

delay(veh/h)
60 100
40
50
20
0 0
800 832 863 894 925 954 983 830 867 903 939 975 1012 1048

quantity in an entrance(vph) quantity in an entrance(vph)

Figure 5(a). Result of Experiment2 -- Figure 5(b). Result of Experiment2 -

different quantity and Py=90%. different quantity and Py=66%.
different quantity in an entrance
(the proportion of left turns is 50%) diffferent dissymmetry coefficient

45
120
100 40
delay(veh/h)
delay(veh/h)

80 35
60 30
40 25
20 20
0 15
800 867 903 970 1037 1103 1170 1 1.06 1.13 1.18 1.26 1.32 1.41 1.5
quantity in an entrance(vph)
dissymmetry coefficient

Figure 5(c). Result of Experiment2 -- Figure 6. Result of Experiment3 --

different quantity and Py=50%. different dissymmetry coefficient.
Inferring from Figure 4, we can see that, when Py is less than 66 percent, each
phase for an entrance generates more delay than symmetry phase. When Py is over 66
percent, symmetry phase becomes worse. Figures 5(a), 5(b) and 5(c) illustrate the
result of Experiment 2: as Qe increase, their difference is more obvious. Besides,
Figure 5(c) also indicated that, no matter what Qe is when Py is 66 percent or so, the
delay these two phases generate is nearly the same. And we can infer from Figure 5
that each phase for an entrance will not be a better choice unless Cd is larger than 1.4.
In most cases, Py is less than 66 percent, and Cd is mostly smaller than 1.4 (if Cd
is larger than 1.4, overlapped phases are able to make it generate less delay). In this
sense, symmetry phase is superior to each phase for an entrance by delay comparing.
Equilibrium of saturation comparing
Both symmetry phase and each phase for an entrance can ensure equilibrium of
saturation between phases. Choosing each phase for an entrance, vehicles in the same
entrance share lanes, which ensures the equilibrium of saturation in a phase. But
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symmetry phase is not able to make it.

Inter-stage loss comparing
Inter-stage loss of symmetry phase is often less than each phase for an entrance.
The reason will be explained in 1.3.2.
Above all, symmetry phase and each phase for an entrance are compared in five
indexes. Results are in Table 2.
Table 2. Total Comparison.
Conflict Equilibrium of Inter-stage
Capacity Delay
points saturation loss
Symmetry depends on ni
better better Better
phase and qimax
Each phase for depends on ni
better
an entrance and qimax
As we can see in Table 2, symmetry phase is superior to each phase for an
entrance in most case. As a result, each phase for an entrance will not be put into use
unless the following three conditions are met.
Condition 1:
• Left-turn path overlaps, which often happens in small intersection or
entrance separated from the opposite one. (For safety).
• There are only shared straight and left turn lanes (no left-turn lane), but it
meets the thresholds to set up protected left-turn phasing. (For traffic
facilities).
• The bigger ni corresponds to the smaller qimax. (For capacity).
The thresholds of left-turn phasing and the style of right-turn phasing
Thresholds from permitted to protected left-turn phasing have been a very
important issue. Protected left-turn phasing avoids the conflict of the left-turn flow
and the opposing straight flow on the time, and then improves the security degree of
signalized intersection (Andet, 1992). Previous solutions seem a little bit rough and
subjective, not able to convey the conflict course of left-turn vehicles and the straight
vehicles in conflict points (Washington D C, 1994).
Average delay is one of the most important variables that reflect the performance
of traffic operations at an intersection. Based on the delay models of left-turn flow
and straight flow in the conflict point, this paper deduced the average delay of all
vehicles at an intersection in the situation before and after operating the protected
left-turn phase. Then, the minimum of the left-turn flow for operating the protected
left-turn phase when the straight flow is fixed is the principle of operation on
protected left-turn phase.
The conflict delay of left-turn flow in the conflict point is:
1 1 εx
dL = − λ ( ta −τ )
[1 − ( + ta )qT Cα e − λ (ta −τ ) ](1 + ) (4)
qT Cα e λ 1− x

The conflict delay of straight flow in the conflict point is:

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2Cαρ
dT = − λt f
{e− λ (tc −τ ) + [λ (tc − ta ) − 1]e− λ ( ta −ε ) } (5)
λ (1 − ρ e )
What the parameter stands for refers to the reference (Songand et al., 2009)
(Troutbeck et al., 1999).
The stopping delay of the flow (either left-turn or straight) before the stop line is:
q ⋅ S ⋅ tr
ds = (6)
2( S − q )

Using protected left-turn phasing, D = d s , red time in each phase is raising.

Using permitted left-turn phasing, D = d s + d L + dT , the conflict delay of the flow in

conflict points could not be neglected. Thus, compare the average delay of all vehicles
in the situation of before and after operating the protected left-turn Phase.
De qe + Dw qw + Ds qs + Dn qn
Average delay in an interscetion( D) = (8)
qe + qw + qs + qn

Assume qs=360vph, ql=180vph in the east and west direction. As the left-turn
flow in the south and north increases, the corresponding average delay in an
intersection will be output by the Matlab program. Table 3 shows the point where two
types of phase equal (Condition 2).
Table 3. Thresholds of Left-turn Phase.
qs in the opposite direction(vph) ql (quantity of left-turn flow)(vph)
300 340
330 360
360 270
400 230
430 200
470 170
500 150
Styles of right-turn phasing
There are mainly four styles of right-turn phasing:

Figure 7. Four Styles of Right-turn Phasing.

As shown in Figure 7, there are no conflict points in Style 1 and Style 4, two spit
conflict points in Style 2, and two conflict junction points in Style 3. According to
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some previous research, choosing the style of right-turn phasing follows the two steps
Condition 3:
• If pedestrian volume in an entrance is small, PTOR is allowable, Style 1
should be used. The threshold would be 800ped/h (including the conversion
by non-motorized vehicles).
• If pedestrian volume in an entrance is larger than 800ped/h, Style 4 will
have priority to select. But, one thing must be considered most: if U-turn is
allowed together with left-turn phasing, Style 4 may lead to a new conflict
junction point. Therefore, Style 2 is a wiser choice in this situation.
Style 3 has two confluence conflict points, which has a bad effect on intersection
safety. For this reason, it will not be used commonly.
Phase sequence
Proper phase sequence reduces the inter-stage loss and improves intersection
capacity (Hans-Georg et al., 1987). Poor phase sequence may due to some potential
safety risk. To study phase sequence, the paper analyze the path of the flow according
to the position of conflict points. (Wang et al., 2004) The sequence of left-turn flow
and straight flow will be considered most in symmetry phase, while whether
clockwise (C.W.) or counter-clockwise (C.C.W.) is better is the most important issue
to study in each phase for an entrance.
Phase sequence of the left-turn flow and the straight flow in symmetry phase

Figure 8. Example for Phase Sequence.

As presented in Figure 8, S follows S and L follows L may cause more
dangerous conflict points. So L follows S or S follows L is used in practical
intersections. Using similar methods, sequence of straight flow and left-turn flow,
which is the most important issue in phase sequence, is studied as follow:

Figure 9. Schematic Diagram to Describe Sequence of Straight Flow and Left

Flow.
Whether L follows S is better than S follows L mainly depends on the time
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vehicle travels from A to B (TAB) and the time vehicle travels from B to C (TBC).
If TAB ＞TBC,, and L follows S, the first car in left-turn phase is more likely to
reach point C at the same time with the last car in straight phase. In other words, more
inter-stage loss should be set to avoid this case.
So, if TAB ＞TBC,, S follows L reduces inter-stage loss. Similarly, if TBC ＞TAB,, L
follows S saves more inter-stage losses. -- (Condition 4)
Phase sequence in each phase for an entrance
There are three kinds of phase sequences in each phase for an entrance:

Figure 10. Three Kinds of Phase Sequence in Each Phase for an Entrance.
As shown in Figure 10, all of the three ways have a “square” conflict point,
which means it is more likely to cause conflict. In other words, each phase for an
entrance requires more inter-stage loss to make the intersection safer. Meanwhile,
C.W requires the most inter-stage loss. Thus, the C.W should be avoided and C.C.W
is wise to choose.
Overlapped phase
Overlapped phase does a great deal of tidal flow which mostly happens in
morning and evening rush hours.
2a A C

1 A 4
3 C

E
B F
D
S ta g e 1 S ta g e 3 S ta g e 4
D B
2b

S ta g e 2

Figure 11. Schematic Diagrams of Overlapped Phase.

For example, if heavy flow is in the north (south) entrance, and its opposite
direction south (north) has low traffic volume, Stage 2a(2b) is chosen. That is, Phase
A(B) and Phase C(D) overlap in two stages. Previous research indicated that, timing
based on overlapped phase reduces the flow rate, thereby reduces the cycle, reduces
delay and enhances the capacity (Peng et al., 2001). But the traffic situation in which
overlapped phase should be used has not been intensively studied before.
Dissymmetry coefficient Cd well assesses the degree of the tidal traffic flow, but
the threshold also attached by Qe and Py. Experiment 1 aims to find out the threshold
of Cd in common situation. Experiment 2 and Experiment 3 gradually change Qe and
Py to see how these two parameters affect the threshold.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1338
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Table 5. Conditions of the Three Experiments.

Qe(vph) Py Cd
Experiment 1 1200 40% 1 to 1.5
Experiment 2 change from 800-1600 40% 1 to 1.5
Experiment 3 1200 change from 30%-60% 1 to 1.5
The following figures illustrate some of the results. The whole results of the
three experiments are presented in Table 6.
diffferent dissymmetry coefficient(Q=1200,p=40%)

65
55
delay(veh/h)

45
35
25

15
1 1.06 1.13 1.18 1.26 1.32 1.41 1.5

dissymmetry coefficient

Figure 12. Result of Experiment 1 (Qe=1200, Py =40%).

diffferent dissymmetry coefficient(Q=800,P=40%) diffferent dissymmetry coefficient(Q=1600,p=40%)

55 75
delay(veh/h)
delay(veh/h)

45
55
35
35
25
15
15
1 1.06 1.13 1.18 1.26 1.32 1.41 1.5 1 1.06 1.13 1.18 1.26 1.32 1.41 1.5

dissymmetry coefficient
dissymmetry coefficient

Figure 13. Some of theRresults of Experiment 2 (Qe=800 and 1600, Py =40%).

diffferent dissymmetry coefficient(Q=1200,p=30%) diffferent dissymmetry coefficient(Q=1200,P=60%)

65 75
55 65
delay(veh/h)

delay(veh/h)

55
45
45
35
35
25 25
15 15
1 1.06 1.13 1.18 1.26 1.32 1.41 1.5 1 1.06 1.13 1.18 1.26 1.32 1.41 1.5

dissymmetry coefficient dissymmetry coefficient

Figure 14. Some of the Results of Experiment 3 (Qe=1200, Py =30% and 60%).

Table 6. The Whole Results of the Three Experiments (Condition 5).

Qe
Py 800 vph 1000 vph 1200 vph 1400 vph 1600 vph

30% 1.34 1.32 1.28 1.26 1.25

40% 1.37 1.33 1.3 1.28 1.26
50% 1.38 1.34 1.32 1.3 1.28
60% 1.4 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.3
﹡The value in Table 6 is value Cd.
The value Cd in Table 6 corresponding to the point when the delay generated by
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overlapped phase and nun overlapped phase is equal, under different Qe and Py. It can
be used for the threshold of overlapped phase (Condition 5). As shown in it, when Qe
=1000 and Py=40%, Cd=1.3. Cd increases (reduces) as Qe reduces (increases), and
increases (reduces) as Py increases (reduces). But the two parameters only slightly
affected Cd. To some extent, the threshold 1.3 can be used in practice.
THE AUTOMATIC PROCESS OF PHASE GENERATING
From the above, the automatic process of phase generating is established. Based
on the input (number of lanes in each entrance, traffic volume of each flow, saturation
volume, some intersection geometry, etc), phase and sequence fit to the intersection
will be given according to the following process.
Basic two phases

Condition 1

symmetry phase each phase for an entrance

phase style of phase style of left-

right-turn phase turn phase
Condition 3 Condition 2
1 2 4 protected permitted
Condition 4
Through phase after Left-turn phase after
CWW
Left-turn phase Through phase
Condition 5
Overlap phase

1 stands for: RTOR (right turn on red)

2 stands for: the right-turn phase together with the straight phase in the same direction
4 stands for: the right-turn phase together with the left-turn phase in the opposite direction

Figure 15. The Automatic Process of Phase Generating.

CASE STUDY
Take a typical signal control intersection in Shenzhen as an example. The data of
phase, contained flow and the average traffic volume in four different statuses are
shown in Table 7.
Two basic phases are used in Free Status, and each phase for an entrance is used
in Smooth, Busy and Congested Status. However, according to the proposed process
of phase generating, different phase designs are chosen in four statuses. Table 8 shows
the phases chosen according to the process method.
Table 7. The Traffic Data of Hongli-Xiangmei Intersection.

Phase name A B C D
Flow Contained WS,WL ES,EL SS,SL NS,NL
Free flow volume: q 76,64 126,52 325,120 271,28
Smooth flow volume: q 365,187 421,233 1142,298 847,223
Busy flow volume: q 679,196 886,252 1292,347 1010,233
Congested flow volume: q 710,312 920,412 1655,413 1510,371
Phase saturated flow volume:S 6600,3100 6600,3100 6600,3100 6600,3100
＊NS means northbound straight, NL means northbound left turn.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1340
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Table 8. Phases in Four Statuses.

Status Phase Design Status Phase Design
Symmetry Phase:
(EW)permitted left phase,
Free Basic two phases Smooth
Style1; (NS) protected left
phase, Style1, L follows S
Symmetry Phase:
Symmetry Phase: (both NS
(EW)proctected left phase,
Busy Congested and EW) protected left
Style 1, L follows S; (NS)
phase, Style 1, L follows S
Overlap phase, Style 1
Take Busy Status for example. Firstly, for the EW(east and west): In Condition 1,
this status does not meet the condition of using each phase for an entrance (the bigger
ni corresponds to the bigger qimax), so Symmetry Phase is the choice. According to
Condition 2, protected left-turn phase should be set due to Table 3. And the right-turn
Style 1 will be a better choice (refer to Condition 3) for it is a big intersection. The
straight track is longer than the left-turn track and as a result, L follows S is a better
basic on Condition 4. Qe =1138, Py=58.7%, Cd=1.3, doesn’t meet the threshold of
using Overlap phase. So, the phase design of EW in Busy Status is: Symmetry Phase:
protected left phase, Style 1, L follows S. The step of phase design in NS is similar,
but it meet the threshold of using Overlap phase (Qe =1639, Py=55.4%, Cd=1.49),
according to Condition 5, so Overlap phase will be chosen. Similar in the other three
statuses, the step of phase design follow the five conditions.
This paper takes Hongli-Xiangmei signalized intersection as a simulation
example and models the intersection via Paramics for four statuses, 10 times
simulation for F. Webster signal timing and adaptive signal optimal timing are carried
out respectively in Paramics’ Modeller module. The comparison indexes extracted
from the Analyzer module include the average delay (d), the average stops time (h)
and the average speed (V). The statistical results are shown in Table 9.
Table 9. Performance Comparison Between Two Phase Strategies.
Phase V Phase V
Status d(s) h(s) Status d(s) h(s)
strategy (km/h) strategy (km/h)
Original 17.7 17.6 47.5 Original 39.8 13.5 42.8
Free Smooth
Proposed 17.7 17.6 47.5 Proposed 33.7 13.1 44.1
Original 56.5 12.7 34.5 Original 61.2 14.3 16.4
Busy Congested
Proposed 34.4 10.8 35.7 Proposed 48 12.3 17.7
According to the simulation results in Table 9, compared with Webster timing, the
delay and stop times can be reduced and the larger average speed is achieved in all
statuses. Delay decreased by 39 percent and average speed increased by 3.5 percent in
busy statuses.
CONCLUSION
The automatic process of phase and sequence design is generated by analyzing
and comparing many kinds of phases. In most cases, symmetry phase is better than
each phase for an entrance particularly for intersection safety and we should choose
based on Condition 1. Considering the conflict delay the left-turn flow and straight
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1341
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flow generated in conflict point, the threshold of protected to permitted left-turn phase
is established by Condition 2. After analyzing four styles of right-turn phase by the
position of conflict points, Condition 3 is set to help judgment. Phase sequence is
discussed in detail in both symmetry phase and each phase for an entrance. L follows
S or S follows L should be better considered by the position of conflict points
(Condition 4), and phase sequence of each phase for an entrance is always C.C.W..
Finally, the threshold of overlapped phase can be judged by Condition 5.
On the whole, phases fit for the practical intersection can be generated according
to this process. Traffic parameters, driving customs and intersection geometry are all
taken into account to ensure it is practical and significant.
REFERENCES
Gerry, D. C., and Richard, W.D. (1992). “Improved protected - permitted left - turn
signal displays.” ITE Journal. 21, 125-136.
Hans-Georg, R., and Manfred, B. (1987). “Timing of inter-green periods at signalized
intersections.” ITE Journal.
Peng, G. X., and Zhang,Y. (2001). “Study of the way of setting ripple changes.” China
Journal of Highway and Transport. 14(12), 59-62.
Song, X. M, Sun, F., and Wang, D. H. (2009). “Conflict delay models at two phase
intersection.” Journal of Jilin University (Engineering and Technology
Edition). 39(02), 326-330.
Troutbeck, R. J., and Kako, S. (1999). “Limited priority merge at unsignalized
intersections.” Transportation Research Part A. 33, 291-300.
Washington D.C. (1994). “Highway capacity manual.” Transportation Research
Board , National Research Council. 98-102.
Webster, F. V. (1958). “Traffic Signal Setting.” Road Research Laboratory Technical
39(1), 12-39.
Wang, H., Peng, G. X., and Zhang, Y. (2004). “The relationship between traffic signal
phasing sequence and intersection geometry design.” Journal of Highway
and Transport Research and Development. 02, 92-94.
Wang, P.Y, Lu, J., and Xiang, Q. J. (2008). “Research on traffic conflict index of
highway intersection.” Highway. 12(12), 128-130.
Wang, X.T. (2008). “Research on phase optimization of traffic signals setting for
junctions.” Communication Standardization.01, 140-144.
Wang, W.J. (2007). “Stepping optimization method for stage-based traffic signal
phase design.” Computer and Communications. 25(03), 31-33.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1342
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Division and Integration of Traffic Control Sub-zones Based on

Distance+Cycle Rule
Hui Bing LI 1 , Zhaosheng YANG 2 and Xiaoguang YANG 3
1
Rm 335, School of Transportation Engineering, Tong Ji University, 4800 Cao'an Rd,
Shanghai, China; PH (+86) 13052314312; FAX (+86) 021-69588994; email:
lihuibing_1983@yahoo.com.cn
2
Rm 502, School of Transportation Engineering, Tong Ji University, 4800 Cao'an Rd,
Shanghai, China; PH (+86) 021-69588987; FAX (+86) 021-69588987; email:
yxgits@vip.sina.com
3
Rm 524, School of Transportation Engineering, JiLin University, 1342 Ren Min Rd,
Chang Chun, China; PH (+86) 043-88978814; FAX (+86) 043-88978814; email:
yzsits@vip.sina.com

ABSTRACT
The paper first illustrates the meaning of division and integration of traffic
control sub-zones. Then, it categorizes all the division rules and decides to make the
distance+cycle rule as the resort of division rule in the paper. The essay utilizes the
cycle rule to select a certain intersection as the critical intersection of a sub-zone. At
the same time, it establishes a probing model based on the cycle and generates the
sub-zones with the help of the cycle rule. Lastly, the paper simulates the division and
integration process based on nine intersections with the VISSIM. After division and
integration of sub-zones with the distance+cycle principle, the average queuing
length of all nine intersections reduces by 35.8 percent compared to isolated control
strategy, and the average delay of those intersections reduces by 41 percent compared
to isolated control strategy.

INTRODUCTION
Traffic control sub-zone is a term in traffic control field. Its definition is as
follows: In a large traffic network, we can divide the network into different control
sub-zones according to different traffic characteristics in different areas in the
network. Every control sub-zone has its own control strategy, which is to
accommodate the traffic condition in the area perfectly. All those sub-zones are
called "traffic control sub-zones."
Though there are a few references about the division and integration of
control sub-zones, none of the methods that they put forward are very applicable for
online application because they have many requirements and resumptions that
usually can't be met in reality (Mo, 2002; Yang, 2002; Yi, 2006).
TRAFFIC CONTROL SUB-ZONE GENERATION RULE
In a lot of references, it is found that rules to generate sub-zones can be
classified into the following groups: cycle rule, traffic volume rule, degree of
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1343
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saturation (DS) rule, split/offset rule, and distance rule.

Here, we can try to find qualitative relationships among those rules first
because cycle is partially determined by volume. Thus, the cycle rule and volume
rule can be put into the same category. Split/offset rule can be put into a separate
category. According to DS formula, we know that DS is related to both volume and
capacity. At the same time, capacity is partially determined by the split, thus, the DS
rule is a rule that is related to both the cycle rule and split/offset rule. Distance rule
can be considered as a separate rule due to its special characteristics (Mo, 2002).
The paper brings forward a combination rule of cycle and distance to
generate the sub-zones, which is very easy to be implemented in practice and a
computationally efficient method.
SUB-ZONE DIVISION AND INTEGRATION BASED ON CYCLE+DISTAN-
CE RULE
Distance Rule
If the distance between two adjacent intersections is very small, then we
should put those two intersections into one sub-zone. But the question would be: how
small should it be? Therefore, here we need to determine a threshold value for the
distance when the queuing length in an intersection exceeds the distance. A big traffic
jam would happen. Given a specific traffic condition (traffic volume and traffic flow
pattern), according to average queuing length formula in the book), “Traffic Control
in Cities” (Quan, 1989), we can determine whether or not queuing length has
exceeded the distance. If it did, then we will have to put those two intersections into
a sub-zone.
Due to dispersion characteristics of traffic platoons, dispersion phenomenon
of platoons near the approaches of an intersection could be very serious if the
distance is too large (Quan, 1989), and it will not perform very well to coordinate
two intersections with one signal control plan. Sometimes, it can worsen the traffic
condition. In that case, we should put these intersections into different sub-zones. But
another question arises: to what extent is a platoon dispersion degree unacceptable?
We can see it this way: if average headway between two vehicles of a certain platoon
is lower than a certain threshold, we can put those two intersections into separate
sub-zones when it reaches the approach of downstream intersection during an
interval.
Apart from this, we know that if the volume of traffic flow is being averaged
during the whole cycle when it reaches an approach of the downstream intersection,
then coordinating these two adjacent intersections with one signal control plan will
not yield a satisfactory outcome (Quan, 1989). Another question is: when should we
put these two intersections into different sub-zones? Here, we need to set up a
threshold value again. This time, the value is the variance of downstream traffic
volumes from different traffic flow detecting intervals within a cycle (here it refers to
division cycle of sub-zones). If the variance exceeded the threshold value, we should
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1344
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put these two intersections into different sub-zones. Otherwise, we should put them
into one sub-zone.
In order to undertake the aforementioned distance rule, we should be able to
detect traffic volume of a certain platoon when it reaches the downstream
intersection. Thus, here we can install single loop detectors along the approaches of
the downstream intersection (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Single Loop Detector Installation.

Cycle Rule
Generally speaking, the cycle rule is a very important rule when it comes to
division and integration of control sub-zones. In practice, we usually put the
intersections with close cycle lengths into the same sub-zone. Similarity of their
cycle length is dependent on the similarity of traffic characteristics of these
intersections (Mo, 2002). At the time, these intersections can be easily coordinated,
especially coordination of offsets of all these intersections, with one signal control
plan. Thus, it can alleviate the traffic condition to some extent.
The key problem for the cycle rule application is: how could we illustrate and
express the similarity of different cycle lengths? Here, we try to build up a
mathematical model to express it.
Assumption of the model is as follows: all intersections in the sub-zone adopt
fixed-time signal control plans.

该大区域中

c c
c

c
c
 
 c

Figure 2. Cycle Lengths of All Intersections in a Large Zone.

Firstly, we should select a critical intersection in the large zone and search its
adjacent intersections. The following formula is to illustrate similarity of cycle
lengths of some adjacent intersections (Shen, 1998):
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1345
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1
{[( c N  c1 ) 2  (c N  c2 ) 2  (c N  c3 ) 2  .......( c N  c N ) 2 ]}0.5
sN  N
cN

Where
s N is similarity index(SI) of cycle lengths of N adjacent intersections;

c N (N=1,2,3,...) is the cycle length of the N th intersection;


c N is the average value of cycle lengths of all N intersections;

s N is similarity index of cycle lengths of N adjacent intersections; the

smaller it is, the more similar the cycle lengths of these intersections are.
The method of establishing a control sub-zone based on cycle rule is as
follows:
(1) Find a critical intersection in a large zone, search its adjacent intersections
with help of the similarity index, and find an adjacent intersection that can enable SI
to obtain its minimum. At that time, we should put the newly-found intersection and
the critical intersection into the same sub-zone;
(2) Search their adjacent intersections with the above-mentioned two
intersections included in the sub-zone. With help of the similarity index, we can find
another adjacent intersection that enables SI to obtain its minimum. Then, we can put
these three intersections into the same sub-zone;
(3) Keep the mentioned-above procedure ongoing, and stop it until we reach a
minimum similarity index after searching over the whole large zone. At the time, we
will get the first complete sub-zone.
(4) Find a critical intersection among the intersections left, and continue the
above-mentioned procedure. If there were less than three adjacent intersections left
after many procedures like this, we can put these three intersections into one
sub-zone. If there were certain intersections among these three intersections that
were not adjacent to each other after many procedures, they can adopt single point
control strategies.
DIVISION AND INTEGRATION OF SUB-ZONES BASED ON CYCLE+
DISTANCE RULE
The following notes are something that we should pay attention to when we
undertake the division and integration procedure:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1346
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Figure 3. The Figure of Division and Integration Procedure of

Distance+Cycle Sub-zones.
(1) We should divide the large zone with distance rule into different
sub-zones, then further divide them with cycle rule;
(2) After finishing the task of sub-zone generation procedure, we need to
select a commonly-used cycle length for every sub-zone. Usually, it adopts the cycle
length of the critical intersection of a sub-zone. However, we can also adopt the
double-cycle strategy in a sub-zone (Quan, 1989). Thus, during the sub-zone
generation procedure, for every target intersection, we can get two similarity indexes
( s * , s ' ); one index is the index with its original cycle length, while the other index is
computed with a cycle length that is double as the original one. Then, we can choose
the smaller index as the final similarity index. After finishing the sub-zone generation
task, we can adopt the double-cycle strategy for those intersections that could make
their SI, which is computed with their double cycle length smaller than that which is
computed with original cycle length.
(3) Due to the specific assumption of the paper (all intersections in the
sub-zone adopt fixed-time signal control plans), the mentioned-above division model
based on the cycle rule can't be implemented under all conditions. In practice, most
intersections have a variable cycle length. Signal control strategies of these
intersections can be classified into three categories. The first one is single-phased
fixed-time signal control; the second one is multiple-phased fixed-time signal control;
the third one is real-time signal control. Thus, the mentioned-above model is not
applicable under these conditions. Here we can utilize grey correlative degree to
process these real-time cycle lengths (Yi, 1992).
(4) When undertaking the searching task, we should do it according to its
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1347
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strict data structure (Chen, 2004). If the i th intersection is a critical intersection of a

certain large zone, there are four intersections that are adjacent to it, and they are
respectively the (i  2) th intersection, the (i  1) th intersection, the

(i  1) th intersection and the (i  2) th intersection. Thus, we can get four similar

indexes, s ( i  2 ) , s ( i 1) , s (i 1) , s ( i  2) , with the mentioned-above formula if s ( i  2 ) is the

minimum value among those four indexes. Then we should put the i th intersection

and the (i  2) th intersection into the same sub-zone. We will continue with this
procedure until we find the optimal sub-zone.
SIMULATION TEST
The paper simulates the process of sub-zone generation from a large zone
(with nine intersections in it) based on the distance+cycle rule. Distances and cycle
lengths for these nine intersections are listed in tables below and Figure 3 illustrate
the locations of these nine intersections.
Approaches for these nine intersections are two-way and four-lanes equipped
among all intersections, B, C, D, E, F, H, L, G, which can generate the traffic flow
with arrival rate of 1000 veh/h. The proportion of left-turn, through and right-turn
traffic movement in every intersection is respectively 0.4, 0.4, 0.2.We choose average
queuing length of all intersections (AQL) and average delay per vehicle of all
intersections (ADPV) as performance evaluation index. Evaluation results are listed
in Table 3.
In order to illustrate the benefits of sub-zone generation based on cycle and
distance rule, four simulation tests were run under four scenarios, and they are as
follows:
(1) The simulation test where every intersection in the large zone adopts
single point control is named Scenario 1.
(2) The simulation test where we coordinate all the intersections in the large
zone with one signal control strategy as a whole is namedScenario2.
(3) The simulation test where we generate the sub-zones with only the
distance rule and choose a specific signal control strategy for every sub-zone is
namedScenario3.
(4) The simulation test where we generate the sub-zones with distance+cycle
rule and choose a specific signal control strategy for every sub-zone is
namedScenario4.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1348
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Figure 4. Figure of the Locations of the Nine Intersections.

Table 1. Link Length of Nine Intersections.
Link Name AB AC AD AE EF FG GH GL
Link length/m 500 800 1200 400 400 1000 350 200
Table 2. Cycle Lengths of Nine Intersections.
Cycle Length A B C D E F G H L
/S 180 100 90 95 120 110 150 80 90

Table 3. Simulation Data Under Different Scenarios.

Simulation test Performance evaluation data
AQL/m ADPV/s
Scenario 1 42.5 47.3
Scenario 2 37.4 41.8
Scenario 3 30.2 34.6
Scenario 4 27.3 27.9
CONCLUSION
After generation procedure of the control sub-zones based on the
distance+cycle rule, the average queuing length of all intersections reduces by 35.8
percent compared to single point control strategy, and the average delay per vehicle
reduces by 41 percent compared to single point control strategy. All in all, control
sub-zones generation based on the cycle+distance rule is very applicable. The
drawback of the method is that it lacks thorough consideration of signal coordination
among all intersections in a sub-zone.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Paper sponsored by 863 Project (2006AA11Z205): Traffic Sub-zone
Dynamic and Intelligent Division Technologies on the Traffic Network in Cities.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1349
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REFERENCES
Chen, M. (2004). “Data structure.” Beijing: POSTS＆TELECOM PRESS.
Mo, H. K., and Peng, G.X. (2002). “automatic division of traffic sub-zones under
route-guidance premises.” China Journal of Highway and Transport. Vol.
2, pp.41-46.
Quan, Y.S. (1989). “Ttraffic control in cities.” Beijing: Posts＆Telecom Press.
Shen, J. H. (1998).”Mathematics modeling.” Beijing: Posts ＆ Telecom Press.
Yi, D. S., and Guo, P. (1992). “Grey theory and methodologies.” Beijing: Tsinghua
University Press.
Yi, H. Y., and Xu, L. Q. (2006).“Research on division of dynamic traffic control
sub-zones.” Journal of the Graduate School of Chinese Academy of
Sciences. Vol.4, pp. 34-37.
Yang, Q. F., and Chen, L. (2002).“Division procedure of traffic control sub-zones.”
Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering. Vol.1, pp.17-20.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1350
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Evaluation of Freeway Incident Management Based on Toll Station Data in

China

Ding HE1, Fu-jian NI2 and Shun-xin YANG3

1
Transportation College, Southeast University, 2 # Si Pai Lou, 210096, Nanjing, P.
R. China; PH (86) 025- 83795505; FAX (86) 025- 83795505; email:
richard3515@163.com
2
Transportation College, Southeast University, 2 # Si Pai Lou, 210096, Nanjing, P.
R. China; PH (86) 025- 83794931; FAX (86) 025- 83794931; email:
nifujian@gmail.com
3
Transportation College, Southeast University, 2 # Si Pai Lou, 210096, Nanjing, P.
R. China; PH (86) 025- 83794814; FAX (86) 025- 83794931; email:
shunxin.yang@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
In 2007, the Operation and Scheduling System (OSS) (including freeway
incident management) was set in the Ningtong freeways in Jiangsu Province of
China. An approach developed to evaluate the benefits of certain incident
management system programs (based on the characteristic that toll stations stand in
almost every access and entrance and consist of a close and integrate freeway net in
China) was proposed. With toll station data (mainly for calculating the incident
delay) and incident logs (mainly for inquiring the incident duration), delay saving
can be calculated by extending or reducing the incident duration using queuing
theory. With this data, the saved fuel cost, amount of emission reduction, reduced
travel time, and reduced secondary incidents can be calculated. After almost one
year, real incident data after the construction of the OSS program in the Ningtong
freeway were tested and a range of benefit-cost ratios from 3.7:1 to 12.7:1 was
calculated. This result indicates that the OSS is a cost-effective tool for freeway
incident management.

INTRODUCTION
Recently, freeway incident management systems have been widely noticed
and studied all over the world due to the huge social and economic effects of traffic
incidents. Many researchers in different countries and districts have established
incident management systems with distinctive personalities due to local road
conditions, traffic features, and more.
However, the application of an incident management system in China is still
at the initial stage, lagging behind the rapid development of highway construction in
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other parts of the world. A few departments have already attempted to introduce
specialized incident management ideas or projects into freeway operation, but have
not succeeded. Some don’t realize the importance of incident management, while
others are hesitant to recognize the benefits. With obstacles like treacherous
domestic situations and hundreds of newly-build freeways, it is an urgent matter to
find evaluation methods for incident management in order to estimate efficiency
objectively and pick up appropriate ways. The OSS was implemented in several
freeways in Jiangsu Province of China in 2007 to attempt to expedite incident
response reduce traffic congestion. This paper, focusing on China’s special domestic
condition especially the toll station data, proposes a method to compute the
monetary benefit of incident delay saving and calculate the b/c ratio to evaluate the
efficiency of OSS.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Evaluations of incident management program usually amount to monetary
benefits based upon value of travel time, fuel consumption reduced, emission
reductions, secondary crash reductions and so on. The Coordinated Highways
Action Response Team (CHART) program’s Incident Response Evaluation (Chang,
2000) implemented in 1996 measured total benefits in the form of vehicle hours of
delay saved, fuel consumption saving, reduction in secondary crashes, and reduction
in incident detection time. The Washington State Department of Transportation’s
(WSDOT) incident response team estimation (Carson, 1999) calculated the
reduction in incident duration and computed the monetary savings and benefits-to-
cost ratio using traffic simulation results. The Hoosier Helper Freeway Service
Patrol evaluation study (Latoski, 1998) used a simulation approach to generate
incidents that were used for estimating the benefits about incident delay savings,
secondary crash reduction and reduction in fuel consumption and commuter
perception of motorist assistance.
Examination of previously conducted studies revealed a common theme of
investigating delay savings to calculate benefits. Decades of research have been put
in by researchers on predicting freeway traffic incident delay. After World War II,
queuing theory was widely used in traffic engineering, including the study of vehicle
delay, capacity, signal timing, car parks, as well as petrol stations (Zhou, 1987).
Additionally, in 1973, Messer applied abnormal fluctuations in the situation of
freeway traffic incidents to forecast the travel time (Messer, 1973). Later on, in1986
Morales proposed the use of reach and left curve for estimating incident delay
(Morales, 1986). Al-Deek also discussed incident delay of multi-events and single-
event based on the shock wave theory in 1995(Al-Deek, 1995). In the studies above,
almost all model inputs (such as traffic flow, capacity, and the arrival of the vehicles
at the time during the incident) need to be accurate, but in reality are vague and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1352
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usually in a certain range. The information for determining these parameters is very
complicated and oftentimes cannot be precisely quantified. In order to facilitate the
calculation, this paper attempts to put forward an alternative method based on toll
station data. Convenient data collection, simpler formula and easier calibration make
this method approachable.
METHODOLOGIES
The incident delay based on toll station data
Freeways are rarely free in China nowadays, as toll stations are usually set at
the entrances or exits of freeway mainlines and interchanges. Therefore, freeways in
China are isolated to other highways along the onward direction, except for the
location of toll stations. The total incident delay can be calculated with the data of
all toll stations in a closed freeway net or two near toll stations. First of all, the
researchers need to appoint an independent number for toll stations along the
onward direction to form the OD matrix.
Suppose that incident location is between toll station i (Si) and toll station
i+1 (Si+1), with the last toll station of the road net being i+m. During the incident
affect time, for station v(0<v<i+1), there are ni+k,v passenger cars and ji+k,v trucks
which entrance the road net at station v getting out the road net at station
i+k(0<k<m+1) .
(1) If for any u (0<u<m+1), the biggest travel time between toll stations is
less than 3 hours. (considering that too long distance bring more possibility of
aditional influence and the average travel time between 2 near stations is usually less
than 3 hours in China), then the incident delay at toll station i+k can be calculated by
cumulating the individual vehicle’s delay between the Tb,i+k and Te,i+k:

Tb ,i  k  Tb  ATTi  k
(1)
Te,i  k  Te  ATTi  k
(2)
ni k ,v

i  [T l,v,i+k  Tf,v,i+k ] ni k ,v

Duik   ( l 1
* ji  k ,v   [Tl,v,i+k  Tf,v,i+k ])
v 1 n i  k ,v l 1
(3)
The road net’s total delay is:
m
Du   Duik (4)
k 1

Where:
Tb, i+k= the time of beginning to record the incident delay of toll station i+k
Tb = the time of incident beginning
ATTi+k= average travel time between incident location and toll station i+k
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1353
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Te, i+k = the time of ending recording the incident delay of toll station i+k
Te = the time of end of the incident
Duik= incident delay on this segment during incident at toll station i+k
bewteen Tb, i+k and Te, i+k (veh-hr)
Tl,v,i+k = travel time of passenger car l (hr) during incident from v to i+k
Tf,v,i+k
= random value of distribution of travel time (95% confidence interval
of average travel time) under prevailing incident free traffic conditions (hr) from v to
i+k
The incident delay of trucks is represented by passenger cars’ delay here and
the explanation is presented in section 4.2. Besides, 95% confidence interval of
average travel time is used here to replace the average value for fuzzy consideration.
(2) If the average travel time between station v and station i+r(0<r<m+1) is
more than 3 hours, then calculate whether the average travel time between station i
and station i+r(0<r<m+1) is more than 3 hours, if yes and the minimum r is s+1, if
no let s=m; the incident delay of the cars from station i to toll station i+k (k  s )
Duik,i between the Tb, i+k and Te, i+k can be calculated as:
ni k ,i

 [T l,i,i+k  Tf,i,i+k ] ni  k ,i

Duik,i  l 1
* ji  k ,i   [Tl,i,i+k  Tf,i,i+k ]
n i  k ,i l 1
(5)
The road net’s total delay is:
s

D uik,i
Du  s
k 1
*Q
 n
k 1
i  k ,i  ji  k ,i 
(6)
Q = the traffic volume during the incident at the incident location
Forecast incident delay for different duration
From the queuing theory, we know:
1 ( q  c* )(c  c* )
Du  ( D* ) 2
2 (c  q ) (7)
With equation (7) and the value of Du, then we just need the incident
(q  c* )(c  c* )
*
duration D to calculate the value of (c  q ) , which can be considered to
fixed in the same section and under the same traffic conditions. For ex ante, aiding
in decisions for future projects, we can reduce the duration by a reasonable range
with respect to the projects’s speciality to see the delay saving Dus. For the ex post,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1354
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evaluating already completed projects, we can extend the duration by the value
gained from the real using status to calculate the delay saving. The study about OSS
is an ex post situation. So if D* is assumed to a appointed value, 10 minutes longer
than the real value for example, a new incident delay Du+10 can be acquired and the
saved delay Dus+10 can be calculated : Dus+10 = Du+10 - Du. The process can be seen in
Figure 1.

Figure 1. Forecast the Incident Delay for Different Durations.

Estimation of measures
Fuel consumption reduction
The amount of fuel consumption reduction (Vfr) on each freeway segment
affected by an incident was calculated:

Vfr =
Dus *V*(P *L *C + P
car car g trucks*Ltrucks*Cd) (8)
V = the average speed under traffic incident condition, 35km/h in this study,
from the survey of staff in site management
Pcar = Percentage of cars in traffic, expressed as a fraction
Ptrucks = Percentage of trucks in traffic, expressed as a fraction
Lcar = the average gasoline consumption of passenger cars, 10.9 L/100km
Cg = the cost of gasoline, 3.47rmb/liter (6th, July, 2009, China Petroleum &
Chemical Corporation, excluding national taxes.), 6.83rmb exchange 1 dollar (July,
19th, 2009), so the cost of gasoline was taken as $ 1.92/gallon，$0.508/liter
Ltrucks = the average diesel consumption of trucks, 33.5 L/100km (Brodrick,
2002)
Cd = the cost of diesel, 3.38rmb/liter (6th, July, 2009, China Petroleum &
Chemical Corporation, excluding national taxes.), 6.83rmb exchange 1 dollar (July,
19th, 2009), so the cost of diesel was taken as $ 1.87/gallon，$0.495/liter
Emission reduction
The amount of carbon monoxide CO, hydrocarbons HC and oxides of
nitrogen NO air pollutant emissions value from motor vehicles is calculated as
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1355
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follows (data and equation from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency):
Ver = Dus *Eh*Ve (9)
Ver = Value of emission reduction
Eh = emissions per hour
Ve = value of emissions per ton
For HC, Eh = 25.676/106 tons per hour, Ve = $6700 per ton
For CO, E h = 338.69/106 tons per hour, Ve=$6360per ton
For NOx, E h = 36.064/106 tons per hour, Ve =$12875 per ton
Value of travel time and average vehicle occupancy
Value of travel time always holds a quite proportion in delay saving
according to previous research due to the level of per capita gross national product.
China is a developing country with low gross national product per capita, but the
income of a vehicle owner normally reaches a relative high level. Logit models are
widely used to estimate the value of travel time, but data was difficult to collect due
to the unwillingness of drivers to help complete the investigation. We use the
opportunity cost analysis here to carefully examine the scope of value of travel time
here:
Bw = Bwage - Bl (10)
W= PwBw + (1 - Pw) Bl (11)
Where,
Bw = time saving value of work time
Bwage = average wage per hour, Bwage = Ywage/ (50 ×40), Ywage is average
wage per year. Considering the normal background of passenger car’s drivers and
passengers and the additional commercial value of truck drivers, the Ywage is
appointed to $ 11000 for passenger cars and $ 20500 for trucks.
Bl = the value of leisure time, $2 per hour for car, $4 for trucks are used here
(Zong, 2009)
Pw= the probability of using saving time on work, 0.45 for car, 0.65 for
trucks
For car, Wcars=$2.675, for trucks, Wtrucks=$5.5
The value of time for estimating the delay savings(Vtt) was taken as

Vtt=
Dus * (P *W *AVO+ P
car cars trucks *Wtrucks) (12)
PCars = Percentage of cars in traffic, expressed as a fraction
PTrucks = Percentage of trucks in traffic, expressed as a fraction
AVO = Average Vehicle Occupancy
Safety impact
Evanco (1996) developed the following equation relating the reduction in
accident notification time to the reduction in the number of fatalities.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1356
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NF ANF
 0.27 *
NF ANF (13)
Where,
ΔNF = represents the reduction in the number of fatalities
NF = the total number of fatalities for the time period in question
ΔANF = the change in accident notification time with respect to emergency
medical responders
ANF = the normal accident notification time.
In incident management, the accident notification time can be equal to the
sum of the detection and verification times. Substituting the accident notification
time, the reduction in fatalities due to incident management was predicted
( Detection  Verification) Before  ( Detection  Verification) After
NF  NF *0.27 * (14)
( Detection  Verification) Before

According to Chinese, the compensation of one death is equal to 20-years

per capita disposable income of China's urban residents. Based on the data of
National Bureau of Statistics of China, the average per capita disposable income of
China's urban residents of the first season of 2009 is $708, so the 20 years cost can
be determined as $56640. So the value of safe impact Vsi is
( Detection  Verification) Before  ( Detection  Verification) After
Vsi= NF *0.27 * *56640 (15)
( Detection  Verification) Before

Saving of secondary accidents reduced

Previous studies have shown that 15% to 25% of freeway incidents that
occur are secondary crashes (Raub, 1997). It is asummed that 15% of incidents are
secondary accidents. So the number of secondary accidents is:
Nsa= Nt * 0.15 (16)
Nsa=Number of secondary accident
Nt=Total number of incidnt
The decrease in secondary accidents due to program is then calculated：
Nd= Nsa * [Tas /Taid] (17)
Nd= Decrease in secondary accidents.
Taid= Average incident duration
Tas= Average saving time per incident.
The saving of decrease in secondary accidents can be determined by:
Sd= Nd *Sasa (18)
Sd=Total saving of decrease in secondary accidents
Sasa=Average saving of secondary accident.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1357
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To evaluate the cost conservatively, only direct average loss ($560) is used.
(The data comes from the statistic average accident loss in first half 2009 of Police
Traffic Contrl Office of China.)
CALCULATIONS AND RESULT
Introductions of OSS
The incident management system and research mentioned here was
conducted by the Transportation College of Southeast University and Freeway
Management Center of Jiangsu Province of China. It began in 2007 and involved 5
main freeways of the center. System, which takes the operator at control centre of
road segment as the main user, proposed and achieved a complete freeway incident
management information system with decision support function.
It is well-known that the benefits found through incident management
programs are generated primarily by restoring capacity as quickly as possible with
the onset of non-recurring congestion. Based upon this fact and previous discussion,
researchers have been interested in examining the impact on the differences between
incident durations with and without OSS assistance. The incident durations before
OSS could be obtained from historical data at the freeway manage center, such as the
incident operator’s logs, rotational tow truck logs and other data. The average
reduction in duration could then be obtained from the field data after the programme
and the use data. Due to the variability associated with incident conditions, varying
the duration reduction was an obvious choice for inclusion within the
analysisInformation from the Ningtong Freeway Management Center showed that
normal incident durations reductions are confirmed to be as little as 5 minutes and as
high as 20 minutes. This analysis created 4 distinct cases relating to 5, 10, 15, 20
minute reductions. For data restrict and clearer explanation, Ningtong freeway is
picked up for analysis below. The road map of Ningtong freeway is below, and some
stations are not marked because of picuture size consideration.

Station5 Station8 Station9 Station12

Station1

Station3
Station10
Station4 Station13
Station11

Figure 2. Road Map of the Ningtong Freeway.

The normal travel time

A comparative analysis of passenger car or truck data shows that five sorts
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1358
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hows no obvious difference on travel time. Only passenger cars and trucks were
used in the following research. Travel time is closely related with vehicle flow rate.
But in the road section, traffic volume is not too big especially at night time
(incident won’t arouse much delay) and average travel time of different hours is very
small according to statistic analyze. So travel time variety among hours can be
ignored here. The travel time of 3 months from Zhuanqiao Station to Pingchao
Station (Station 1 and Station 13 in Figure 2 with the distance of 120km) of
Ningtong freeway is shown in Figure 3.
155 Passenger cars(July)
Passenger cars(August)
Passenger cars(September)
145
Trucks(July)
Trucks(August)
135 Trucks(September)
Travel Time(min)

125

115

105

95

85

75

65
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Date of Month

Figure 3. Raw Travel Time Data of Passenger Cars and Trucks.

Of all the components of the raw travel time data, one deserves attention: the
data that comes from passenger cars is more constant than trucks data. There are
many reasons for trucks’ bigger variability: Trucks speed is small, trucks always
have a long-distance journey, trucks’ driver’s personal qualities have distinct
characteristic and so on. Previous research of this program indicates that the incident
delay of trucks almost equals to the delay of passenger cars at the same conditions.
With regards to the ratio data of passenger cars and trucks from the toll station, we
can use passenger cars data to represent the trucks’ in the next steps.
Incident delay
Incidents were ticked from the incident logbooks from the manage center of
Ningtong freeway, which recorded around 700 incidents from July 2007 to
September 2008. Considering that many tiny incidents like simple mechanical
failure and lack of water won’t bring obvious traffic delay, more than 100 minor
incidents were omited. Finally, the results were narrowed down to 541 incidents. Of
these, 54 were major accidents, leading to the deaths of 42 people and the injuries of
67. The Ningtong freeway has two lanes for single way, the designed capacity
c=1200[pcu/(h·ln)], the average Upstream traffic demand q=600[pcu/(h·ln)], a
typical traffic distribution found in this area is of 80% passenger cars and 20%
heavy trucks. After a series of implementation disscussed before, incident delay
saving were gained and two samples are showed in Table1. Delay1 is the delay
calculated from the toll station data and Delay2 is the delay calculated used equation
(7) for comparison (The appropriate capacity reduction factors were obtained from
Exhibit 22-6 of the Highway Capacity Manual, while other parameters are from the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1359
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toll station). Delay saving derived from toll station data is convinced here by
contrast with the queuing theory.
Table 1. Incident Delay Calculation Samples.
Incident Incident Incidnet Lanes Duration(m Delay1(Veh Delay2(Veh Delay Saving If Duration Increased(Veh-Hrs)
Number Time Type Blocked in) -Mins) -Mins)
5min 10min 15min 20min
Rear-end
23 15:01 1 200 281353 285128 237.39159 480.64471 729.75934 984.7355
collision
Rollover
108 13:55 2 153 144550 145722 160.03478 325.21537 495.54178 671.014
Accident

The average delay saving if the time duration is increased by 5, 10, 15, 20
minutes is respectively 59.2, 120.6, 184.1, 249.7 Veh-Hrs. Only 2 lanes in this
section lead to biggish influence if any of lanes was blocked. It is not surprising to
see that the more severe incidents were those in which incident management
programe presented a clear positive impact. In the result, a steady trend of increasing
delay reduction as a function of increasing incident duration reduction can be
observed.
Cost saving of fuel consumption, emissions and value of travel time
Fuel consumption, emissions and value of travel time are directly related
with single delay saving of incident. The saved cost of the three items was calculated
through the procedure discussed before. Averaging all 541 calculated dollar amounts
reveals an value of $752.4, $1531.5, $2337.5, $3170.3(duration saving is
respectively 5, 10, 15, 20 minutes ) for a single assist, with an total program benefit
of $407028.4, $828557.7, $1264587.8, $1715118.7. In Figure 4, several single value
points (most represent big traffic accidents) show very high value and most of single
value concentrated in a relative small range. This phenomenon noticed us again that
incident management will behave rather better when more serious incident happens.
In the picture of 95% confidence interval of average value, a more clear and popular
trend of cost saving can be seen.

Figure 4. Value of Cost Saving and 95% Confidence Interval of Average Value.

Cost saving of secondary accidents reduced and safe impact

These two costs should be calculated as a total result of a certain period. At
the aspect of secondary accidents reduced, an average incident duration of 83.7
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1360
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minutes with 541 incidents was achieved from the incident logs. Cost saving of
secondary accidents reduced for 5, 10, 15, 20 minutes saving for duration were
$2561, $4843, $6299, $8762. In contrast, of safe impact, 3 minutes reduction of
detection and verification time were determined due to the improved speed of
recording and communication, which were considered as a result of highly
intergrated information and communication system. Finally a sum of $128,460 for
safe impact was gained.
Total benefits and benefit-cost ratio
Total benefits for the period can be calculated by synthesizing above cost
saving. $538,049.4, $961,860.7, $1,399,346.8, $1,852,340.7 for 5, 10, 15, 20
minutes duration reduced were obtained with an average value of $1,187,899.
A freeway incident management system has inherent costs associated with its
operation. These costs are incurred through operations and maintenance of the
program along with wages and benefits for employees. Cost data for the incident
program, including recurring expenses (e.g., labor, benefits) and payments toward
capital expenses (e.g., equipment), were obtained from the management center. The
cost for the incident program during the analysis period was approximately
$146,000. Therefore, the benefit-cost ratio range was found to be 3.7:1 to 12.7:1,
with an average ratio of 8.1:1. Contrasted with the ratios of 4.4:1 to 9.85:1 in other
incident management program (Nee, 2001), the result is acceptable.
CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Primary contributions of this work include a unique approach to evaluating
the effectiveness of incident management programs with toll station data under
specific domestic conditions of China. This method was applied to the OSS program
in Ningtong freeway, which gave profits of $2196 per incident with regards to the
fuel consumption, the emission reduced, the value of travel time, the safe impact and
the secondary accidents reduced. A benefit range of approximately $538,049 to
$1,852,340 was calculated for the OSS program in almost 14 months. A benefit-cost
ratio range of 3.7:1 to 12.7:1 was found, with an average estimate of 8.1:1. As a
result of no considering about the national fuel tax, loss of injured, customer
satisfaction and so on, the total result is conservative. Research results support
widespread implementation of this program.
Future studies should seek to evaluate the comprehensive benefits of the
program including injured cost saving, customer satisfaction and so on. On the other
hand, if traffic flow is big and continuous enough and toll station data accords with
several hypothesizes, more interesting studies such as forecasting the incident
duration or occurrence of traffic incident can be implanted.
REFERENCES
Al-Deek H., Garib A., and Radawn A. E. (1995). “A new method for estimating
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1361
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freeway incident congestion”. Transportation Research Record, 1995,

1494, 30 - 39.
Brodrick, C. J. (2002), “Evaluation of fuel cell auxiliary power units for heavy-duty
diesel trucks”. Transportation Research Part D, 7(4), pp.303–315.
Carson, J. L., Mannering, F., Legg, L. B., Nee, J., and Nam, D. (1999). “Are incident
management programs effective? findings from washington state”.
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research
Board, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1683, pp.8–
13.
Chang, G. L., Shrestha, D., and Point-Du-Jour, J. Y. (2000). Performance evaluation
of CHART – An incident management program – in 1997, Final Report.
Latoski, S. P., Pal, R., and Sinha, K. C. (1998). A Cost-effectiveness evaluation of the
hoosier helper freeway service patrol. Publication FHWA/IN/JTRP-97/9.
FHWA US Department of Transportation.
Messer, J. C., Dudek, C. L., and Friebele, J. D. (1973). “Method for predicting travel
time and other operational measures in real-time during freeway incident
conditions”. Highway Research Record, 461, pp.1-16.
Morales, M. J. (1986). “Analytical procedures for estimating freeway traffic
congestion”. Public Road, 50 (2), pp.55 - 61.
Nee, J., and Hallenback, M. E. (2001). Evaluation of the service patrol program in
the puget sound region. Washington State Transportation Center, Project
No. T1803, Task 37.
Raub, R. A. (1997). “Secondary crashes: An important component of roadway
incident management”. Transportation Quarterly, 51(3), pp.93–104.
Zhou, S. W. (1987). Traffic engineering. Shanghai: Tongji University Press.
Zong, F., Juan, Z. C., Zhang, H. Y., and Jia, H. F. (2009). “Calculation and
application of value of travel time”. Journal of Transportation Systems
Engineering and Information Technology, 9(3), pp.114–119.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1362
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Air-rail Links and the Possible Use in Xi’an Xianyang International Airport

Chen WU1, Lin CHENG1 and Jie OUYANG2

1
School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, China, 210096; PH (86)
15850550197; email: wuchen_04@yahoo.com.cn
2
Transportation Engineering College in Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin,
China, 300300; PH (86) 22-24092474; email: ou_yangjie@163.com

ABSTRACT
As more and more airports are becoming congested, airport operators and
airlines are increasingly turning their attention to connecting rail links in a quest to
relieve congestion. This paper classifies air-rail links into shared and dedicated
connections according to the service range, but the former shows some limitations in
terms of travel time. By analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and
threats of air-rail links abroad, we conclude that air-rail links can be an efficient way
to address ground transportation problems. In addition, it can be used as an essential
tool to increase an airport’s catchment area. Finally, with the introduction of the
development situations of air-rail links in large-scale domestic airports, the authors
argue that it’s necessary to specifically analyze characteristics of the ground access,
and adopt different rail links concerning the different conditions of airports. And then
the possible use of rail links in Xi’an Xianyang International Airport (XIY) is
discussed.

CLASSIFICATION OF AIR-RAIL LINKS

There are numerous examples where high-speed rail connections have
substituted flight connections. As early as 50 years ago, London's Victoria-Frye
Burton railway has been used by Gatwick Airport to the south of London as a
dedicated rail line. According to International Air-rail Organization (IARO), up to
2001, more than 70 airports world-wide now have some form of air-rail link, and
around 140 more are in the planning process (Eichinger et al., 2004).
Various types of air-rail links, such as high-speed rail, underground, light rail,
monorail, AGT and maglev connections, are currently operated world-wide.
Considering the service range, air-rail links are classified into shared and dedicated
connections (Shi et al., 2007).
The shared connections can be provided by underground trains or light rail
and often are an extension from existing local rail services. Featuring high service
frequency and frequent stops, they not only meet the requirements of air passengers,
but also satisfy the demand of airport employees and commuters along links.
London's Piccadilly subway line connects the airport with the Paris metro network.
Whereas Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, Frankfurt Airport as well as Amsterdam
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Schiphol Airport each have their own high-speed rail station, they are directly
connected to the European high-speed railway network. Connection like this is an
emerging air-rail links.
The dedicated connections can be provided by high-speed trains and often are
a direct access to airport from downtown. And the lines are specifically designed for
air passengers in vehicles, baggage equipment, layout, etc. The following air-rail
links, London's Heathrow Express, Stockholm's Arlanda Express, and Norway's Oslo
Gardermobamen Express, are typically dedicated ones.
The shared connections, based on urban rail transit system, are one of the
most common, low-cost air-rail links. In fact, there are only about 15-20 percent
passengers arriving at the airport, and the rest are short-distance travelers. According
to the service range, the shared connections show some limitations. On the one hand,
the shared connections mainly provide service for urban passengers, and it is the
characteristic that determines the direction and the station distribution, which may
lead to the time required from downtown to airport too long. On the other hand, air
passengers usually show a higher time sensitivity so as to reduce overall trip time,
and the shared connection cannot satisfy the request yet.
SWOT ANALYSIS OF AIR-RAIL LINKS
Strengths
Air-rail links between airlines and railway companies, by contrast, in general give
rise to a win-win situation. Air-rail links can provide high-quality ground access,
which is reliable and comfortable, and extend the public transport market shares. An
air-rail link is a crucial tool for improving ground access of an airport if the airport
suffers from road congestion. Furthermore, air-rail links would be a very effective
tool to expand an airport's catchment area at much lower costs. Accordingly, the
competitiveness of these airports is reinforced to a certain degree, which is helpful to
airports' sustainable development. Although here we mainly focus on several leading
European airports, some of the principles outlined and issues raised are of
generalized reference significance.
Such are the air-rail links in FRA. In operation since 1991, InterCityExpress
(ICE) line connects the airport to the European high-speed rail network (Payne,
2003). Travel times have been sliced sharply between FRA and surrounding cities —
thus making combined air/rail travel even more attractive. What's more, in May 1999,
FRA welcomed the age of high-speed rail with the opening of a second station
known as the AIRail Terminal or Long-distance Train Station. ICE and regular
intercity trains use this facility exclusively. Thanks to these outstanding connections,
the AIRail Terminal provides a more reasonable transition among different traffic
modes at FRA. The trends shown in Figure 1 show that public transport market share
has seen a steady growth. For example, in the case of the ICE station at Frankfurt
Airport, which serves a large catchment area, approximately 43 percent of its users
are from the State of Hessen, where the airport is located (Qin et al., 2005).
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2015

2004

2000

1999

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Private car/Hire car Taxi Bus/Local train Long distance/High speed train Other

Figure 1. Market Share Of Different Traffic Mode Used In Frankfurt

Airport.
Weaknesses
With regard to air cargo, a different kind of picture has to be painted. Freight air-rail
links are scarce and rarely successful due to these two reasons: A lack of effective
intermodal integration between air and rail freight is usually the case. Another major
issue negatively affecting the commercial viability of freight air-rail links is that
standard air freight containers do not fit on most traditional rail services. Therefore,
air cargo is concentrated in only a few hubs in Europe.
However, a few airports do indeed provide rail freight facilities and others are
planning new rail freight lines, e.g. Leipzig airport in Germany. In April 2008, rail
freight facilities connecting Leipzig and Frankfurt were put into operation, and total
travel time was no more than four hours. Historically, aviation fuel has often been the
only rail freight being transported by rail or provided by pipelines from a nearby
railhead.
Opportunities
The advent of high-speed rail in the past 20 years in Europe has so far had a
significantly negative impact on some short-haul flights over a distance of around
600 kilometers. For example, the introduction of German ICE-services between
Hanover and Frankfurt or the introduction of Eurostar-services between Pairs,
London and Brussels led to a substantial decline in passenger numbers for airlines on
these routes.
Compared to short-haul flights, rail services enjoy some considerable
competitive advantages. Firstly, a time-consuming and costly transfer from an
out-of-town airport to the final innercity destination of the journey is not needed.
What is more, over short distances, aircrafts use relatively more fuel than on longer
flights, i.e. the operation of short-haul flights is usually more expensive per route
mile. Furthermore, landing fees as well as total trip times — including transfers to
and from the airports, check-in time, security controls, typically turn rail services into
more attractive options. As a result, airlines often don’t offer direct point-to-point
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flights below 300 kilometers (Eichinger et al., 2004).

Air and rail transport can have complementary roles in the movement of large
numbers of people: Air is regarded as a crucial mode for long distance transport,
while air and railways are filled with competition and cooperation in medium
distance transport. In terms of short distance transport, short-haul flights can be
completely replaced by intercity high-speed rail. Therefore, the closer cooperation
between airlines and railways might give rise to a win-win situation. This is
especially true in Europe, where both extensive intercity and regional rail networks
do exist and the substantial network efficiency could be achieved through this type of
air-rail links. The European hubs (Figure 2), like German hub Frankfurt airport and
France hub de Gaulle Airport, are directly connected to the intercity rail networks.

Figure 2. The Location Of Major Airports And High-Speed Railway Network

In Europe, 2006-2007.
High-speed railway network in Europe has tended to be mature, while it is
still at an initial stage in China. Therefore, it provides reference for the future
development of the high-speed railway network in China that the integration into
large hub airports should be taken into account. The Beijing-Tianjin intercity railway,
whose maximum speed reaches 350 km/h, was put into operation in 2008 and is the
first intercity high-speed railway in China. Upon completion of the line, there was a
timely consideration for PEK to be integrated into the intercity railway (Jin et al.,
2003).
Threats
Careful planning is required to integrate effectively air and rail transport in order to
provide a “seamless” journey for passengers. It's argued that only by providing a
seamless end to end journey, in which transfer between air and rail is as effortless as
possible, will a modal shift from road to rail transport take place (Stubbs et al.,
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1998).
(1) Level of service. The integrations between airports and railways can be
classified into two types according to the service range: a. infrastructure — rail link
is directly introduced into airport from the urban area; b. through joint tickets, which
is essential for the seamless journey so that passengers do not have to buy separate
tickets which can be both slow and inconvenient.
Corresponding to the integrations above, the level of service is also divided
into two kinds. The first is rail integrating into airport terminal and check-in at the
airport. A higher is a service based on the first called "zero-altitude feeder" service,
which provides transfer service for air and rail passengers and allows them to book
joint tickets by an Airline Reservation System (Qin et al., 2005). Even more
important, it allows passengers to check-in and -out at major railway stations, i.e.
some form of early baggage check-in service should be offered.
At present, airports worldwide have introduced some form of air-rail link, but
the high level of service is only available in a few European hubs. To achieve a real
sense of air-rail links, i.e. to reach the second level of service, a code-sharing
agreement needs to be established between major airlines and railway companies.
Examples for code-sharing agreements are the code-sharing agreement between the
German DBAG and AA and the so called Airail Service between Frankfurt airport
and Stuttgart and Cologne.
Shanghai Hongqiao Transportation Hub is a large-scale modern and
comprehensive transport hub, which assembles several traffic modes, such as airport,
high-speed rail, intercity rail, maglev line, highway and regional transport. However,
just providing advanced facilities is far from enough, software facilities must also be
improved step by step. If the aforementioned critical factors are met, Hongqiao
Airport will be completely capable of developing a higher level of service.
(2) Layout of railway station. A reasonable layout of station is an important
guarantee to provide seamless services for travelers. Usually, railway stations
considered in rank order of distance to the airport are subdivided into three categories:
near the airport, center terminal area and adjacent to the terminal (Shi et al., 2007).
The attractiveness of air-rail links is certainly inhibited when passengers have to
transfer to a second mode in order to reach the air terminal because there is no
railway station directly integrated into the terminal building. Even if the necessary
shuttle service is provided free of charge, such as the bus transfer from Birmingham
International rail station to the airport (BHX), the willingness of passengers to use
this kind of air-rail link is still very low. Only about 10 percent of BHX's passengers
use the existing air-rail link prior to or after their flight. Generally, air-rail links offer
more than one station at large airports with multiple terminals, e.g. Stockholm's
Arlanda Express as well as Beijing's Capital Airport Express each offer two stops to
serve different terminals. Similarly, the layout of railway station in the downtown is
also quite different, as shown in Table 1.
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Table 1. Layout of Railway Station.

Airports Layout in the airport Layout in the downtown
European high-speed rail network
Frankfurt Near the airport
and the subway
Heathrow Center terminal area Downtown London
Charles de Gaulle Center terminal area Regional Expressed Railway in Paris
urban transportation system
John F. Kennedy Adjacent to terminal
in New York
Narita Adjacent to terminal Rail transit and Haneda Airport
Beijing Adjacent to terminal Dongzhimen hub
CURRENT SITUATIONS OF AIR-RAIL LINKS IN CHIAN
According to Statistical Report on China's Civil Airports Operations 2008, it
is reviewed that there are seven airports with annual passenger throughput above 15
million in China. And the ones above 30 million only account for two. By analyzing
air-rail links abroad, the following conclusions may be obtained: airport with annual
throughout above 15 million should construct a rail link to relieve traffic congestion;
airports with annual passengers throughout above 30 million, a dedicated rail link has
to be considered (Li, 2008). Air-rail links vary depending on the airport's operational
context, traffic type, traffic volume, airport design and also on the transport link
characteristics. Hence, different airports require different kinds of air-rail links.
However, among these airports, except for PEK and PVG, other airports now have
not any form of air-rail links.
Some progress has been made in trying to bring about air-rail integration in
China (Table 2). There is, however, still a long way to go before the achievement of
any satisfactory level of integrated transport between air and rail.
Table 2. Airport Rail Links in China.
Length Time Frequency Price
Airports Origin-Destination Stops
(km) (min) (min) （ ￥）

Beijing (PEK) Dongzhimen-PEK 27.3 4 29/33 10 25

Shanghaipudong
Longyang Rd.-PVG 30 2 8 15 50
(PVG)
HongKong (HKG) Central district-HKG 35.3 4 24 12 100
Eastern railway
Guangzhou (CAN) 30.9 11 25 -- --
station-CAN
Shenzhen (SZX) SZX-HKG 40.8 2 24 -- --

﹡
Bold is planning.
POSSIBLE USE IN XI’AN XIANYANG INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Using XIY as a case study, the authors aim to alert policy makers to the
potential benefits of air and railway integration and provide empirical evidence for
such benefits.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1368
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XIY is located in northwest of Xi’an and 47 km from the downtown. There is

no railway connection at all and all surface access is presently by road. As a gateway
hub of the western region, its passenger throughout exceeded 15 million for the first
time in 2009, while that will be expected to reach 30 million in 2020, which would
make the ground access face a more severe test in the future. Based on
comprehensive consideration of the ongoing renovation and expansion of Xi'an
railway hub and the Metro Line No.1, airport rail lines should be constructed timely
to relieve landside congestion, and the authors recommend the following two
programs (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Proposed Air-rail Link in XIY.

Dedicated rail link
Zhengzhou-Xi'an Passenger Dedicated Line is an integral part of four vertical and
four horizontal high-speed railway passenger transport lines according to "Middle
and Long-term Railway Network Planning," and it has been under construction since
September 2007. With the completion of the national high-speed railway network,
travel time from Xi'an to surrounding areas can be greatly decreased. And then, the
dedicated line will be considered to integrate the airport into the high-speed rail
network to attract potential passengers and to provide them with more travel
opportunities. Obviously, to reduce travel time, it is essential to locate less
intermediary stops and the stations should be as close to intercity centers as possible.
Hence, there are only three stations: Xi'an Railway Station, Xi'an North Railway
Station and Xianyang Airport. Accordingly, passenger trains used in the dedicated
line are short and more frequent so as to better serve passengers, employees and
meeters/graters.
Extension of Metro Line No.1
Dedicated rail links mainly provide services for passenger traffic on high-speed
railway in the airport's catchment area, and pay more attention to the integration
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1369
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between airport and high-speed railway. Urban rail transit systems primarily service
urban residents and the surrounding area travelers.
As to the new spatial distribution pattern known as "one city with
multicenter,” a total of six lines are planned in Xi'an urban rail transit network, of
which Metro Line No.1 (Houweizhai to Fangzhicheng) and No.2 (North railway
Station to Weiqu) are under construction. The two metro lines, the east-west and
north-south direction passenger transport corridors respectively, constitute a cross
skeleton of the rail network in the North Street. Therefore, the large passenger
distributing centers along the two lines will be handled in connection with one
another, which is convenient for urban and surrounding areas.
Metro Line No.1 will be extended westward to the Xianyang People's Square
in the future and connected with XIY after passing through the airport logistics park.
Obviously, the extension line will not only offer comfortable and convenient services
for urban and surrounding areas, but also make a great promotion to the development
of Xi'an city, Xianyang city and the airport logistics park.
These two options may be applied stage-by-stage according to XIY's annual
passenger throughout. In the initial stage, we can give priority to Metro Line No.1,
and the needs of urban residents and air passengers could be satisfied simultaneously
by extending westward to the airport after its completion. Consequently, in the case
of low volume, it's also an effective measure to make use of urban rail transit systems
or the extension line to service the airport. But the dedicated rail link exclusively
designed for air passengers should be developed in the foreseeable future.
CONCLUSION
Air-rail links can improve ground access of airport, provide passengers with
convenient, fast, comfortable and effective services, which has been confirmed in the
operation of European major hub airports and pointed out the development direction
for airports in China. Furthermore, with the rapid development of national economy
and the people's living standard continuously rising, air transport has been paid more
and more attention in recent years, especially for long-distance travel passengers.
Meanwhile, air traffic is also undergoing a period of rapid growth, and it's urgent to
construct airport ground transportation facilities matching on the total ground traffic
flows to and from commercial airports. Doubtlessly, the mass rapid rail transit
system is the best choice. Xi'an city, as a gate to the western China, is of decisive
importance at the strategic positions. As the gateway hub of the western region,
constructing air-rail links in Xianyang Airport is not only conducive to improving
ground access of airport, but also strengthens the dominant position of the hub,
which could bring unlimited developing space to the airport.
REFERENCES
Eichinger, A., and Knorr, A. (2004). “Potential and limitations of air-rail links —
a general overview.” Bremen: Institute for World Economics and
International Management.
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Jin, C., and Zhao, J. (2003). “Feasilibility study on construction of Beijing-Tianjin

airport dedicated rail links.” Railway Transport and Economy,
(02):21-22.
Li, Y. (2008). “Study on airport ground access and inspiration to the Beijing
capital international airport.” Comprehensive Transportation, (02):56-61.
Payne, R.A. (2003). “Background: evolution of the FRA international travel-port.”
http//:www.fraport.com.
Qin, C., and Xu, X. (2005). “On air-rail intermodality in Frankfurt airport.” Traffic
and Transportation, (02):46-49.
Shi, Y., Ji, L., and Long, Y. (2007). “Related problems about the development of
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Stubbs, J., and Jegede, F. (1998). “The integration of rail and air transport in
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Zhao, Z., Guo, Y., and Zhang, J. (2002). “Study on the joins of railway with other
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Railway Transport and Economy, 24(09):25-26.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1371
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An Operation Condition Evaluation Method of Rural Freeways during Holidays

Yan WANG1, Hai-ying ZHU2, Zhe-liang XU3, Lin LI4
1
Road Safety Research Center, Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Transport,
China, No.8 Xitucheng Road, Haidian District, P.O. Box 100088, Beijing; PH
(8610) 62378943; FAX (8610) 62363428; email: whj98741@126.com
2
Guangdong Provincial Freeway CO., Ltd. No. 83, Baiyun Road, Guangzhou, China.
PH (8620)83731119; FAX (8620)83731372; email: zhuhy@gdfreeway.com
3
Heyuan filiale, Guangdong Provincial Freeway CO., Ltd. Shuangxia County,
Yuancheng District, P.O. Box 517000, Heyuan; PH (86)13928323418; email:
xuxian1976@163.com
4
Road Safety Research Center, Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Transport,
China, No.8 Xitucheng Road, Haidian District, P.O. Box 100088, Beijing; PH
(8610) 62378943; FAX (8610) 62363428; email: l.li@rioh.cn

ABSTRACT
With the increase of freeway mileage and vehicle population, traffic volume
in rural freeways is growing quickly in recent years in China. In developed areas,
traffic volume in rural freeways are approaching capacity and in some cases exceed
capacity, hence, lead to frequent incident and heavy traffic congestion, especially on
holidays. To mitigate traffic congestion and reduce the impact of traffic incident, it’s
urgent to improve operation management with advanced technologies. This paper
focuses on developing the real-time operation condition assessment method, which is
one of the advanced operation management technologies, for rural freeways.. By
analyzing traffic flow and incidents data from rural freeways, the state of traffic flow
and the grade of incident were determined. Then the state of operation condition was
defined considering both the traffic flow and incident characteristics. The real-time
operation condition assessment result will provide reference for optimizing operation
management strategy, especially during high-volume period.

BACKGROUND
Traffic flow characteristic on rural freeways
In recent years, traffic volume in rural freeways in some developed
provinces in China is going up fast, especially on holidays. Take Huihe freeway in
Guangdong Province for example, the maximum daily traffic during holidays is
about three times of Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) (See Figure 1). Huihe
Freeway is a four-lane rural freeway, the design capacity is 3600 pcu/h based on
traffic composition and geometric of the roadway. However, the peak demand on
holidays is about 3200~4400 pcu/h, which is reached or over the capacity. However,
hourly volume varies significantly (See Figure 2) and the asymmetry of traffic
volume in two directions is obvious (See Figure 3).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1372
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Figure 1. The Traffic Volume per Day during Spring Festival Holiday.

Figure 2. The Traffic Volume per Hour on a Certain Holiday.

Figure 3. Comparison of Directional Traffic Volume on a Certain Holiday.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1373
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Traffic incident characteristic of rural freeways on holidays

Accompany with the growth of traffic volume, traffic incidents happen more
frequently on holidays than on ordinary days (see Figure 4).

Figure 4. Frequency of Traffic Incident on Holidays and on Ordinary Days.

Necessity of improving operation management of rural freeways
High traffic volume and frequent incident, caused serious traffic congestion,
which lead to reduced safety, reduced mobility, and increased emissions and fuel
consumption, etc. The real-time operation condition assessment is one of the core
technologies which help improve operation management. (Zhang, 1994) The advance
technologies can be useful to mitigate traffic congestion and reduce the impact of
traffic incident of rural freeways.
PREVIOUS RESEARCHES ON FREEWAY OPERATION CONDITION
ASSESSMENT
Most of the research works on freeway operation condition assessment is
based on the analysis of the state of traffic flow (Jiang, 2004). However, it’s not
enough for management decision making based on traffic flow only. Traffic incident
data is also important for decision making. However, this important information was
ignored in the previous researches. The proposed research considered both the traffic
flow character and the incident character, and will overcome the weakness of the
current methods.
MANAGEMENT UNIT OF RURAL FREEWAYS
To improve operation management, rural freeways should be divided into
several level of management units. Each freeway in the freeway network is regarded
as an independent unit, which is the first-level management unit. Then each freeway
is divided into several segment by interchanges. The segment between two adjacent
interchanges is the second-level management unit. At last, the segment between two
adjacent interchanges is subdivided into several subunits by the median opening, and
is the third-level management unit. The corresponding assessment method for the
operation condition of the management unit on these management hierarchies will be
discussed in the following section of the paper.
OPERATION CONDITION ASSESSMENT MODEL OF RURAL
FREEWAYS
The operation condition assessment of the third-level management unit,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1374
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which is the foundation for the operation condition assessment of the second and the
first level management units, is the most important.
Operation condition assessment of the third-level management unit
Operation condition assessment of the third-level management unit is carried
out in two steps. In the first step, the operation condition of the third-level
management unit is divided into several independent states. Each state shich has a
particular character different from others, will determine the corresponding
management strategy. In the second step, the operation condition of each
management unit in a certain time interval will be judged and determined which state
it belongs to.
The state of operation condition is determined based on the analysis of the
character of traffic flow and incident. Therefore, the state of traffic flow and incident
should be analyzed first.
In order to determine the state of traffic flow of rural freeways, the statistical
analysis of the character of traffic flow parameters using classical traffic flow theory
has been carried out based on traffic flow data during holidays (Shy, 2005; Gartner,
1997). On the basis, the state of traffic flow is determined in terms of the occupancy,
speed, and volume of traffic flow (Newell, 1995). Take a four-lane rural freeway for
example; the state of traffic flow is established using the above method (see Figure 5
and Table 1).

Figure 5. Five States of Traffic Flow of Four-Lane Rural Freeway.

The character of incident is expressed by the grade of incident, and is
determined according to the impact of the incident, which includes the time duration
and the number of lane blocked by incident, on the safety and efficiency of freeway,
(Hu, 2003; Ozbay, 1999). In this research, the incident is divided into three grades,
taking four-lane freeway for example (see Table 2).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1375
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Table 1. State of Traffic Flow of a Four-Lane Rural Freeway.

State of traffic Traffic flow parameters
Flow rate Occupancy Speed Qualitative description
flow
(pcu/5min) (%) (km/h)
Very high speed and low
Free flow 0~100 0~10 80~100
volume
Semi-free flow 100~250 10~20 60~80 High speed and high volume
High speed and very high
Critical flow 250~300 20~50 40~60 volume which is near
capacity
Low speed and middle
Congested flow 100~250 50~70 20~40
volume
Stagnant flow 0~100 70~80 0~20 Low speed and low volume

Table 2. Grade of Traffic Incident.

Grade of incident Lane blocked Time duration
low Only shoulder blocked Less than 30 min
middle One lane blocked 30 min to 2 hours
high Two lanes blocked More than 2 hours

Based on the combination of the state of traffic flow and the grade of incident,
the state of operation condition (SOC) of the third-level management unit is divided
into 15 (see Table 3).
Table 3. State of Operation Condition of the Third-Level Management Unit.
Grade of incident
State of operation condition Low or middle high
none
Free flow 1 6 11
Semi-free flow 2 7 12
State of
traffic flow Critical flow 3 8 13
Congested flow 4 9 14
Stagnant flow 5 10 15

Operation condition assessment of the second-level management unit

The operation condition of the second-level management unit is determined
by the state of operation condition of the subunit, i.e. the third-level management unit
(see Table 4).
Operation condition assessment of the first-level management unit
The operation condition of the first-level management unit, i.e. each freeway
in freeway network, is evaluated based on the state of operation condition of the
second-level management unit (see Table 5).
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Table 4. The State of Operation Condition of the Second-Level Management

Unit.
State of operation condition of the
Judgment criterion
second-level management unit
Free low and no incident All of the subunit SOC are 1
high volume and no incident All of the subunit SOC are 1, 2 or 3
recurrent congestion Any one of the subunit SOC is 4 or 5
Free low and incidental congestion Any one of the subunit SOC is 6 or 11
Any one of the subunit SOC is 7,8,9,10,12,13,14, or
high volume and incidental congestion
15
recurrent congestion and incidental Any one of the subunit SOC is 4 or 5, while the other
congestion subunit SOC is 7,8,9,10,12,13,14, or 15
Table 5. The State of Operation Condition of the First-Level Management Unit.
State of operation condition of
Judgment criterion
the first-level management unit
less than 15% of the management unit is under recurrent
Smooth
congestion and incidental congestion
15% and 50% of the management unit is under recurrent
Light congested
congestion and incidental congestion
more than 50% of the management unit is under recurrent
Heavy congested
congestion and incidental congestion

CONCLUSION
This paper presented a new approach, which used traffic flow and incident
information to evaluate the operation condition of rural freeway. An assessment
model for the hierarchy management units was established. This model considered
both the macroscopic and microscopic operation condition of rural freeway. The
assessment result of operation condition of rural freeways will provide managers and
road uses with decision making capability, which is needed urgently while rapid
traffic growth is expected in the near future.
REFERENCES
Gartner, N., Messer, C. and Rathi, A. (1997). Monograph on traffic flow theory,
Transportation Research Board.
Hu, M.W., Tang, H., Lee, D. H., and Shi, Q. (2003). “Development of the real-time
evaluation and decision support system for incident management.”
Proceedings IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation
Systems. Shanghai, China (CD-ROM).
Jiang, G. Y. (2004). Technologies and applications of the identification of road
traffic conditions. China Communications Press. Beijing.
Newell, G.F. (1995). “Mathematical models for freely-flowing highway traffic”, J.
Oper. Res. Soc. Amer. 3 (2), 176–186.
Ozbay, K. and Kachroo, P. (1999). Incident management in intelligent
transportation systems. Artech House.
Shy, B., and Ardeshir, F. (2005). “Experimental investigation of spatial breakdown
evolution on congested freeways”. The 84th TRB Annual Meeting.
Transportation Research Board. Washington DC.
Zhang, H. and Ritchie, S. G. (1994). “Real-time decision-support system for
freeway management and control”. Journal of Computing in Civil
Engineering vol. 8 (1), 35–51.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1377
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Multi-State Flow Inductive Control Method at Intersections

With Multi-function Entrance MFE Lanes

Heng DING1, Xiaoyan ZHENG2, Xiao MA3 and Wuwei CHEN4

1
School of Transportation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei
230009; PH (+86)551-4660573; email: dh801101@163.com
2
School of Transportation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei
230009; PH (+86)551-2907786; email:zilingchunshi@163.com
3
School of Transportation Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei
230009; PH (+86)551-2901338-2512; email:lingyunhouyuqing@126.com
4
School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Hefei University of
Technology, Hefei 230009; PH (+86)551-2901750-2412; FAX (+86) 551-2903450;
email: cww@mail.hf.ah.cn

ABSTRACT
The inductive control method, of which the time and space distribution
characteristics of intersection traffic flow were considered, was put forward to solve
the problem. The current static traffic organization and timing control method
possessed weak applicability for multi-state characteristic traffic flow. The inductive
control was carried out by setting one or more multi-function entrance lanes (MFE)
to enhance the efficiency of traffic organization at intersections, by installing vehicle
induction coils and dynamic lane electronic guideboards. Traffic flow direction of
MFE can be selected according to traffic flow changes in different directions.
Certainly, the multi-function entrance lane provides queue space for vehicles to turn
left, go straight, or turn right, and also provides priority for buses through the
intersection. An example using the new inductive control method was simulated by
the PTV traffic simulation software VISSIM, and the result shows that this method
can decrease traffic delay and improve service level of intersections.

INTRODUCTION
Traffic signal timing optimization of intersections is a principal measure to
improve urban traffic management levels. This has played an important role to
improve traffic order, raise the level of road safety, and reduce traffic congestion
and so on. Currently, domestic signalized intersections, mainly single-point-based,
are mostly controlled on the theory of F. Webster B. Cobber, and the corresponding
algorithm by R. E. Allop (1972). Most research about signal controlled intersections
with stable traffic flow, and fixed signal time assignment methods under given
canalization conditions are put forward in the documents (Li et al., 2009; Gao et al.,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1378
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2003). As well, some scholar’s expert intelligent control measures to carry

optimization research for signal time assignment (Shen et al., 2002; MA Shoufeng et
al., 2002). Moreover, a signal time assignment improvement method implemented
by adjusting signal phase is put forward (Zhao et al., 2005). However, the signal
control methods under condition of multi-state traffic flow proposed in the Journal
of Hefei University of Technology (Ding et al., 2008) were insufficient.
The tradition method, which is just adjusting signal phases, and signal cycle.
This is still far from enough to account for non-equilibrium characteristics of each
entrance lane of traffic flow. With regards to the multi-state characteristic of
intersection traffic flow, parts of intersection entrances were put forward to be set as
multi-function entrance lanes (MFE). In addition, the function of MFE was timely
adjusted in accordance with traffic flow changes detected in different directions of
intersections. Meanwhile, the number and duration of phases had been optimized,
and then the intersections were inductively controlled. Take the practical application
as an example, the multi-state flow inductive control method was reasonable and
effective.
MFE LANE SETTINGS AND FUNCTIONAL SELECTION
MFE lanes settings
（1）Condition
The numbers of entrance lanes and the changes in traffic flow conditions
should be adequately considered in MFE settings to ensure all entrance lanes in each
traffic flow directions. The intersections with MFE lanes should include three or
more entrance lanes. The MFE is mainly suitable for multi-state traffic flow, so the
entrance traffic flow at intersections shows a certain fluctuation characteristics
specificially described by formula as follow:
 max q (i ) − q (i )
δ < <1
 q (i )

 λ<
q (i )
< 0.9
 SA

Where {q(i)} refers to traffic flow statistical series in any entrance

directions； q (i) is the mean of statistical series; S A represents sums of saturation flow
in all entrance lanes corresponding to {q(i)} ; δ is reference coefficient to relative
lower bounds of traffic volume and the recommended value range is 0.3 to 0.4; λ is
the lower bound of saturation and the recommended value range is 0.1 to 0.15.
（2）Number of MFE
According to the setting condition, the eligible entrance at intersections
frequently is located on the trunks in which entrances are numerous, but not all
entrance lanes were set MFE which setting number must meet the formula as follow:
1 ≤ nM ≤ nI − 3
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Where nM is the number of MFE, and nI is the number of entrance lanes.

（3）Location of MFE
In terms of greater mutual interference between vehicles going straight and
turning left in the same entrance at intersections, left turn phases and straight phases
should be set respectively. MFE provides travel space for several travel directions
due to its flexibility. Therefore, straight lanes and turn-left lanes have the priority of
MFE, and straight lanes and turn right-lanes in the event of greater right traffic
volume. Setting locations are shown as in figure 1.
Auxiliary traffic signal light
Vehicle induction coil
Green belt

Dynamic lane electronic guideboard

Main traffic signal light

Figure 1. Setting up scatter-gram of MFE and related facilities.

MFE functional selection
The mainstays of MFE functional selection are two pairs of opposite traffic
volumes and traffic capacity of entrances in the next signal cycle. Own to
interrelation with entrance functional patterns, traffic capacity of entrances has been
determined when MFE functional selection are fixed. Therefore, traffic capacity of
entrances can be determined by testing MFE functions repeatedly. Nevertheless, the
traffic volumes in the next signal cycle can be obtained by traffic forecasting, and
the traffic forecasting methods in connection with unstable traffic flow are common
in many documents.
Take South-North entrances at intersections as example, respectively, qnl, qns,
and qn. These are defined as left, straight, and right traffic volume at north entrances,
with corresponding traffic volume at south entrance is described by qnl, qns, and qn
MFE functional selection performs the following operations:
Step1: The inboard MFE function determination can be expressed as bellow.
a. If both qNL and qSL are not greater than 2, the MFE function is determined
as “straight” lanes in terms of no left phase.
b. If qNL or qSL is not greater than 2, it is indicated that the minor traffic flow
of lanes in two directions is disregarded. Therefore MFE function in the other
direction is determined as “straight” lane. If max(qNL , qSL ) / S > 0.2 , the MFE function in
direction in accordance with max(qNL , qSL ) , is determined to be the “left” lane. Not, as
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1380
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“straight” lane, where S is the saturation flow rate in the according width max(qNL , qSL ) .
c. If both qNL and qSL are greater than 2, but qNL ≤ 0.2 , qSL ≤ 0.2 the MFE function
is determined as “straight” lane.
d. If both qNL and qSL are greater than 2, but qNL > 0.2 or qSL > 0.2 , the comparison
on qNS with qSS should be considered. The approaching MFE function is determined
as “left” lane under the condition of less straight traffic flow, or as “straight” lane
traffic flow.
Step2: The inboard MFE function determination can be expressed as follows.
Initial tolerant outboard MFE function determined as “straight” lane. The signal
cycle C is calculated via optimizing signal cycle equation based on F. Webster-B.
Cobber’s theory combined with the results of Step1.
Step3: The inboard MFE function determination can be expressed as follows.
Initial tolerant outboard MFE function determined as “straight” lane. The signal
cycle C is calculated via the optimum signal cycle equation based on F. Webster-B.
Cobber’s theory combined with the results of Step1.
In comparison with right traffic flow qNR , qSR , if the corresponding traffic
capacity can’t meet the requirement, outside-in MFE function is determined as
“right” lane gradually. In this case, the signal cycle is recalculated and compared
until the traffic capacity meets the requirement.
MFE SIGNAL TIMING ASSIGNMENT
The main characteristics of inductive signal control methods are adjusting
signal time assignment on the basis of traffic volume change. The new time
assignment parameters have to be recalculated step by step, however, aiming at
MFE inductive control intersections, the saturation flow and other assignment
parameters ought to be calculated simultaneously per cycle. The immediate change
corresponding to the saturation flow in different directions after entrance lanes
changed.
If the saturation flow was known under the condition of function determined
of MFE lanes, the total traffic volume in i-phase of a cycle can be calculated by
equation:
N + N FME
S= ∑i =1
Si

Where N stands for the fixed lane number in i-traffic flow direction, and
N FME means lane number based on MFE in i-traffic flow direction.
The traffic volume which doesn’t cross the intersection in i-traffic flow
direction in the current cycle is assumed to be qs , and q p and is defined as the
predicted arrival traffic flow in the next cycle. The traffic flow ratio in i-traffic flow
direction in the next cycle can be expressed as equation:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1381
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=yi k *(qs + q p ) / S

Where i is the traffic flow ratio, and k stands for an uneven distribution
correction coefficient, whose range of is from (1, 1.5), or k = 1 , when N + N FME =
1.
The next implementation cycle can be defined as follows according to
optimum signal cycle equation based on F. Webster B. Cobber’s theory.
C = (1.5 L + 5) /(1 − ∑ yi )
i

Where C is the optimum signal cycle, L means the total signal loss time at
intersection.
EFFECT ASSESSMENT
Usually, the delay of signalized intersections is the main assessment factor of
traffic service level. With the minimum delay attained by signal time assignment
methods such as optimum signal cycle based on F. Webster B. Cobber’s theory.
Nevertheless, the delay has to be determined via delay models. A lot of research
about delay of vehicles has been carried out, the relatively authoritative research
results, that is, a series of delay models are set forth in highway capacity manual.
The vehicle delay computation model recommended in HCM2000 (Zhang, Weihua
et al. 2004) as below was applied.

C (1 − λi ) 2 8 KIxij
=dij Pf + 900 T [( xij − 1) + ( xij − 1) 2 + ] + d0
2[1 − min(1, xij )λ ] cijT

Where dij is the j -entrance lane average delay of i -phase(s), and Pf , T , K , I ,

d 0 means average delay correction coefficient, analysis period, the control setup
correction coefficient, upstream vehicle filtration correction coefficient, respectively,
the missing data of which was recommended as 1, 0.25, 0.4, 1, and 0.
EXAMPLE ANALYSIS
Now take an intersection of one city for an example to illustrate the
optimization procedure of the MFE inductive control method. Tunxi road and
Ma’anshan road intersect the signalized intersection, and both of them are artery.
The traffic volume changes of the four entrance lanes at the intersection based on
intervals of 2 minutes traffic surveys in 1.5 hours are shown as Fig.2.
80
Traffic Number/pcu

60 East Entrance
40 West Entrance
South Entrance
20 North Entrance
0
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81
Serial Number
Figure 2. Four entrance traffic flow surveyed in an intersection.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1382
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After calculating, the total traffic volume in the east, west, south, and north
entrance lanes was found to be 2179pcu, 2137pcu, 2091pcu, 1592pcu respectively.
The traffic volumes meet the requirements due to MFE setting conditions as above.
The division of specific entrance lanes is shown in Table 1.
Table1. The entrance lane split of Tunxi road-Ma’anshan road intersection.
Entrance lane number（from road inside）
Entrance direction Left MFE Straight MFE right
East 1 1 2 1 1
West 1 1 2 1 1
South 1 1 1 1 1
North 1 1 1 1 1
The control schemes, the existing signal time assignment scheme, inductive
control scheme, and multi-state inductive control scheme at intersections based on
MFE, respectively, were adopted simulation analysis via traffic micro-simulation
software VISSIM. The delays at intersections in simulation results are shown in
figure 3. The fixed-time control simulation delay is 22.79 seconds; inductive control
simulation delay is 19.03 seconds, while MFE inductive control simulation delay is
14.43 seconds. According to the interrelation of delay and service level at
intersections in HCM2000, fixed-time control service level is C, by inductive
control is B, and by approximate is C. The number of cycle series of MFE inductive
control is added to 100, compared with inductive control and fixed-time control.
The average delay is respectively decreased by 24.15% and 36.64%; meanwhile, the
service level is enhanced to B.
Fixed-time control
40
Delay/s

20

0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81
Cycle serial number

a. Fixed-time control simulation delay

Inductive control
40
Delay/s

20

0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91
Cycle serial number
b. Inductive control simulation delay
30 MFE inductive control
Delay/s

20
10
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
Cycle serial number

c. MFE inductive control simulation delay

Figure 3. Simulation delay based on different control methods.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1383
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CONCLUSIONS
The multi-state traffic flow with unevenly distributed space-time and
significant change features is inductively controlled by setting MFE and just setting
up dynamic lane facilities. Such as electronic guideboards in accordance with less
investment that can effectively reduce delays at intersection, and improve service
levels. However, due to being quite different from conventional method, inductive
control scheme installing MFE for the multi-state traffic flow may reduce Traffic
participant’s suitability for road traffic. Consequently, the scheme may influence
traffic order in short times; in this case, the propaganda work for traffic information
should be done before the implementation of new control scheme.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This work was supported by the National Science Natural Foundation
(No.70771036), Anhui Province Science Natural Foundation (No. 090414162), and
Science Study Development Foundation of Hefei University of Technology
(NO.2009HGXJ0066).
REFERENCES
Allop, R. E. (1972). “Delay at a fixed time traffic signal: theoretical analysis.”
Transportation Science, 1972. 6(3), 260-285.
Ding, H., Zheng, X. Y. and Zhang, W. H. (2008) . “Traffic signal timing optimization
of unparallel flow at intersection based on chaperonage phase.” Journal of
Hefei University of Technology (Natural Science), 2008 . 31(3), 356-359.
Gao, H. J., Li, L. X., and Chen, L. (2003). “Changeable phases signal control of
traffic intersection.” Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,
2003. 3(3), 79-83.
Li, L. L., Qu, Z. W., and Chen, Y. H., and Wang, D. H. (2009). “Control strategy of
variable lane.” Journal of Jilin University (Engineering and Technology
Edition), 2009. 39(1), 98-103.
Ma, S. F., Li, Y., and Liu, B. (2002). “Agent based learning control method for urban
traffic signal of single intersection.” Journal of system Engineering, 2002.
17(6), 526-530.
Shen, G. J., and Sun Y. X. (2002). “Multi-phase fuzzy traffic control based on phase
sequence” Control and Decision, 2002. 17(Suppl.), 654-658.
Zhang, W. H., Lu, H. P. and Shi, Q. and Liu, Q. (2004). “Optimal signal-planning
method of intersections based on bus priority.” Journal of Traffic and
Transportation Engineering, 2004. 4(3), 49-53.
Zhao, Z. J., Liu, X. Q. and Xie, G. Q. (2005). “Changeable phases and changeable
periods signal control at traffic intersection.” Journal of Chang’an
University (Natural Science Edition), 2005. 25(6), 70-72.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1384
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Air Traffic Capacity of RVSM Area Based on Heuristic Algorithm

Huaqun CHEN1 and Weijun PAN2

1
Air Traffic Management Department in Civil Aviation Flight University of China,
P.O. Code 618307, Guanghan Sichuan; PH (+86) 15883403690; FAX (0838)
5190242; email: chqtx@126.com
2
Air Traffic Management Department in Civil Aviation Flight University of China,
P.O. Code 618307, Guanghan Sichuan; FAX (0838) 5190242; email:
panatc@sina.com

ABSTRACT
Reducing Vertical Separation Minimum (RVSM) of the cruising levels from
12500 meters to 8400 meters is beneficial in increasing air traffic capacity.
Implementing RVSM to increase air traffic capacity, which is qualitative with ration
analysis, is adopted in the paper. The mathematical model of air traffic capacity in
RVSM area is established based on the air traffic control mode of changing the fly
level of aircrafts. Genetic algorithm with ant algorithm (GAAA), which is one of
Heuristic algorithms, is applied to solve the large-scale combinations issue.
Considering actual characteristics of air traffic control, the improved algorithm in
this study can reduce the calculation complexity and time. The optimal cruising
mode of flight route in RVSM area is established to increase the capacity in RVSM
area. In this research, GAAA computer simulation is used to calculate the capacity in
an actual RVSM flight route and proved the feasibility and practicality of the
algorithm. The conclusion from this study provided an approach to solve the fight
route capacity while reducing vertical separation minimum.

INTRODUCTION
With the growth of civil aviation, the lack of airspace gradually becomes the
most critical restrictive factors. Learning from the successful experience of Reducing
Vertical Separation Minimum (RVSM) abroad, civil aviation of China has changed
the traditional cruising level by changing vertical separation minimum from 12500
meters to 8400 meters, a net reduction of 300 meters. This change allows adding
six flight levels in the affected area. RVSM is beneficial to increase air traffic
capacity and optimize the cruising paths. Adopting this Air Traffic Control (ATC)
model, the airplane can be arranged to operate in more economic flight elevation to
save aviation oil, reduce delay and increase efficiency and income of airlines
(Suchkov and Mondoloni).
At this time, there are very few viable researches in calculating of air traffic
capacity in RVSM area. Recent studies mainly focus on qualitative description and
haven’t explored the algorithm to calculate the capacity of different cruise models in
RVSM area. Because the air traffic controllers lack the precise capacity information,
they do not recognize the remaining useful flight levels and hence, cannot achieve
full capacity (ICAO, 2008). The result is missing the opportunity to take advantage
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1385
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of the extra capacity available in RVSM area and still insure safety. Therefore,
development of a mathematics model and algorithm on air traffic capacity is
important in improving safety and economy of the air traffic control.
INFLUENCE FACTORS OF AIRSPACE CAPACITY IN RVSM
There are more viable cruise levels in RVSM area than Conventional Vertical
Separation Minimum (CVSM). Therefore, the ATC has more options to change flight
elevation of airplanes. When aircrafts of the same type are operated in the RVSM
area, they will maintain different Instrument Air Speeds (IAS). IAS is the key factor
to calculate air traffic capacity. Consequently, the existing methods are not applicable
to study this problem and it is necessary to develop a special method to calculate air
traffic capacity in RVSM area.
There are many factors should be considered in calculating air traffic capacity.
According to ATC regulation, these factors are divided into many parts such as the
enacting of ATC regulation, complicate air field, the model of airspace management,
and the rules of tower delivery and so on (ICAO, 2008, Chen and Pan). Considering
the character of ATC mode in RVSM airspace, the main restrict factors and
hypotheses on this research are as following.
(1)The aircrafts should possess the cruise capability in RVSM area including
climb and keeping program. It means that all aircrafts should be equipped with
necessary devices when they are permitted to operate in the area.
(2) According to ATC rules, the delivery interval is the criterion to measure the
optimization of air traffic capacity in RVSM area. The actual time used in climbing
and descending to prearranged levels may be different from anticipation.
(3)Aircrafts shall keep definite vertical, horizontal and lateral interval between
each other according to the equipment of flight level. Because of different instrument
in air traffic control process, these spaces differ. Considering the operation
environment of RVSM area, it is assumed that this area is operated under radar
control (Cheng et al., 2001).
(4)The time spends in climbing or descending to prearranged levels must fulfill
interval restriction. The interval time τ AiAj should obey the rules of interval between
aircraft Ai and Aj , which is climbing or descending to the Ai cruise level. The
minimum flight level change should be 600 meters.
(5)The climb and descent times are different for different aircraft types. It is a
function of cruise speed VAik in kilometer per hour, climb gradient cgi , and descent
gradient dgi .
(6)ATC can order any aircraft to climb or descend to any cruise position in any
phrase. That means while aircraft flying into RVSM area initial position is
discretional.
ESTABLISHMENT OF MATHEMATICS MODEL
In order to ensure the safety of aircrafts, the intervals between two aircrafts
should be greater than the safety distance and vertical clearance. When an aircraft fly
into the air route, air traffic controller will designate a level for the airplane
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1386
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according to the volume of aircrafts in the control area. Thus the air traffic at other
levels influenced by this control scheme will be alternated correspondingly. In order
to describe the mathematics model, the hypothetical conditions are described in the
following paragraphs.
Assume there is an air route with distance of D meters. Aircrafts enter the air
route at any level. If conditions meet the air traffic control rules, this aircraft is
assigned to fly in the optimal cruise level and permitted to change the schedule. The
goal of the execution of level schedule is to find the best cruise mode of aircraft
operation and achieve the maximal air traffic capacity.
Combining with the character of air traffic control, the air traffic controller
should follow the flight rule to assign west bound aircrafts to odd number levels and
east bound to even levels. For example, there are three consecutive cruise level
which are L, L+1 and L+2. If the cruise level of an aircraft is changed from L to L+2,
this action will influence the related level which is the one between these two levels.
Similarly, if the cruise level of an aircraft is changed consecutively, the air traffic
capacity will be affected by these steps. Three adjacent cruise levels are chosen to be
the research object. The air traffic capacity of the whole RVSM area is calculated
step by step. Figure 1 shows the analysis process. Parameters used in figure1 are the
same as these in part one of this paper.
j +1
A0 ,Vl 2 A1 ,Vl 1 Ai ,Vl i Aj ,Vl j Pj P3' j Aj +1 ,Vl LE
L PL PL' , L + 2 Exit Distance
Clearance horizontal ESD(km)
PL + 2, L +1 P PL + 2, j
L+1 Distance:VAD (km) A1, l +1 P
1
PLj,L+1
PAi ,l +1 VAD L , L +1 PAi ,l +1 PAj ,l +1 ( L + 1) E
PL , L − 2 P '
PL , j
L+2 j
( L + 2) E
PL' − 2 Aj +1 ,V j +1
Aj ,Vl +j 2
Ai ,V i
l +2
A1 ,V 1
l +2 l +2

Figure 1. Sketch of changing the cruising level in RVSM area.

L
=
MinAD
=l 1
∑=
VADl ∑ VAD
i , j∈ E
ij
(1)

s.t.
Ali Al j =
( Ali , Al j ) ≥ SDmin i, j =
1, 2....N (2)
=
| A A | (=
lA  A ) 600=
i j
l −2 l 1, 2....Ll
i j
l −2 (3)
=
| A A | (=i j
A  A ) 300
l l −1 l
i j
l −1 (4)
=
PAi ,l +1 PAj ,l +1 ( PAi ,l +1 , PAj ,l +1 ) ≥ VAD
(5)
In these equations the sign  stands for vertical clearance, PAi ,l is the position
of aircrafts on the cruising level, and SDmin is the minimum safe distance.
FINDING THE OPTIMAL SOLUTION BY GAAA OF HEURISTIC
ALGORITHM
Because the number of cruising level is twice as much in RVSM area than
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1387
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CVSM and the air traffic capacity in the area varies depends on changing of the
cruising altitude. The course of calculating air traffic capacity in RVSM area is a
dynamic combination optimal problem which is also influenced by other factors.
Thus it is difficult to apply the traditional mathematics programming arithmetic to
solve the large-scale combination optimal issue that contains many uncertainty
elements.
After comparing common mathematics algorithms such as recursive, tsp and so
on, this paper proposed to use genetic algorithm with ant algorithm. There are
many advantages to use two optimal heuristic algorithms to solve the large-scale
combination issue. Especially it is helpful to reduce the complexity (Gao, 2003). The
basic concepts of this research are explained in the following section.
First, by random search, celerity and whole astringency of genetic algorithm,
find the initial solution. Then ant algorithm is applied to finish parallelism, feedback
and high intrinsic feature. And finally reach the optimal cruising schedule in the
RVSM area. Combining genetic algorithm and ant algorithm will enhance efficiency
in finding the result and optimizing the cruising schedule. The algorithm used for
solving air traffic capacity is GAAA which is related to heuristic algorithm.
Combining the concept of GAAA (Ma et al., 2008) and the feature of air traffic
control in RVSM area, the ideas of planning algorithm are explained as following.
(1)The aircraft chosen to cruise in RVSM area should accord with the regulation
and is permitted to change the cruising speed on any altitude.
(2)The cruising speed can be constant or different between aircrafts. Aircrafts
are permitted to exceed or stay in queue.
(3)The air traffic controllers must follow the rules. For example, when the
aircraft is flying west, it should be assigned to fly in the odd cruise levels. East bound
aircraft should be assigned to even cruise levels. The air traffic capacity for west and
east bounds are calculated separately.
(4)All relevant quantitative rules are considered as parameters. For example, the
vertical available distance is VAD (in kilometers), the minimal safe interval is
SDmin (in kilometers), the climb gradient is cg , and the descent gradient is dg .
The main processes of the algorithm are described as follows.
Step1 initialize variables. C＝0 , i, j , l , d = 1 . C is the air route capacity. l means
one level and d is the times of algorithm cycle. IAS8400 is the cruising speed at the
8400 meters level. It needs to change the Instrument Air Speed (IAS) to True Air
Speed (TAS) using the equation:
TAS=i Ki × IASi ,
where Ki is the airspeed ratio.
With the intra-variance methods the TAS at all cruising levels can be calculated using
the equation:
TASi = KTAi × IASi = IASi .[ KTAi −1 + ( KTAi +1 − KTAi −1 ) /(TAi +1 − TAi −1 ) × (TAi − TAi −1 )] . (6)
L
= ∑
Step2 According to objective function MinAD =
ADl ∑ VAD ij
and fitness
=l 1 i , j∈ E
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1388
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i −1 Pop _ size i Pop _ size

value function at join
= fv( Ax ) ∑f / ∑
Ai
=j 1 =j 1
f Aj < ξ ≤ ∑ f Aj /
=j 1 =j 1
∑ f Aj , real-number coding is

generated by obeying the first come first serve rule. With the coding, the initial
cruising schedule is generated and X 0 is the initial solution. The air traffic capacity
is C = X , fv is an estimated value and d + + is the cycle time.
0 Ai

Step3 Based on the fitness value function fv( Ax ) , a preferable adjusting

cruising schedule is selected. The climbing Aj is linked with the declining Ai . Both

aircrafts are flying into the same cruising level at the same time until reaching the
last level. This will complete the intersectional calculation of chromosome and a new
solution X t is generated. If X t is less than X 0 , then X 0 will remain as the

maximum. The cycle time is d + + and the fitness value function fv Ai is updated.

Step4 Choose the smaller fitness value ( fv Ai ) of Ai and Aj to perform

variation reversion. That means Ai and Aj contained in the temporary solution X t
is adjusted to change cruising level and repeat step 3 to generate a new solution X t' . If
X t is less than X 0 , then X 0 will remain as maximum. The cycle time is d + + .
Step5 Using the new linking information factors of the temporary optimal
m
solution X t' , M ants are put to CN points of aircrafts with the probability PAiAj (t )
m
and all ants may move toward the next position. The probability equation PAiAj (t ) is
 τ αAiAj (t )η AiAj
β
( t ) / ∑ τ αAis ( t ) /η Ais
β
( t ), j∈allowed m
P (t ) = 
m
AiAj
s∈allowen
(7)
 0 otherwise

where, allowed m is from 0 to n-1 advancing by one step; the permitted position is
chosen by ant. α and β are the accumulation and heuristic information. α
τ AiAj is the
β
track intensity of information factors from Ai to Aj; and η AiAj is visibility coefficient.
Step6 According to the probability, every ant can move to other point until that
M ants have travelled CN points. If no available airspace position can be found, the
new solution X t'' will be received, and the information factors of the optimal ant
cycle ∆τ AiAj
m
will be added. The value of ∆τ AiAj
m
is Q divided by Dm . Thus all the path
information factors are updated using the following equation,
M
t + 1) ρ .τ AiAj (t ) + ∑ ∆τ AiAj
τ AiAj (= m
(t , t + 1) (8)
m =1
Q is m ants release the unit information factor by travelling from Ai to Aj in
the current cycle and Dm is the passed cycle distance. The term ∆τ AiAj
m
(t , t + 1) is the
information quantity that m ants travel the path from t to t+1 and ρ ∈ is attenuation
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1389
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modulus with value from 0 to 1.

If τ AiAj (t + 1) > is less than ε , repeat Step5, otherwise, go to Step7. The cycle time
is d + + .
Step7 When M ants can’t find new point that satisfy horizontal and vertical
distance. It produces new point which satisfies the restriction, and the current
solution is X t , then information section of path is updated to τ AiAj
'
(t + 1) . If ∆τ AiAj
k
is
greater than zero, then go to Step5, otherwise go to Step8.
Step8 Achieved the final optimal solution X opt .

SIMULATION EXAMPLE
The model and algorithm of air routes capacity described earlier is run on the
exploitation platform of Microsoft visual c++6.0. Two airplanes, namely, B737-400
and A320 are chosen to fly from Changsha to Wuhan which is a RVSM area. The
distance of air route is about 385 kilometers.
The speed of aircraft is permitted to vary. The method of air traffic control is
radar. It is assumed that VADmin is 10 kilometers, cg Min is 2.5 percents, cg max is 5
percents, dg Min is 2 percents,and dg max is 5.5 percents. Both the recursive method and
the GAAA are used to calculate the air traffic capacity in this example. Results are
displayed on figure2.
36
34 Min cg
32 and dg
30
Capacity

28 Max cg
26 and dg
24
22
20 recursive
18 count
16
14 CVSM
12 Capacity
10
8400 8800 9200 9600 10000 10400 10800 11200 11600 12000 12400 12800 Cruise Level
Figure 2. Comparison of capacities between GAAA and traditional recursive
way.
In figure2, circles represent air traffic capacity of six available levels in the
CVSM area; squares represent air traffic capacity in the RVSM area that is calculated
by recursive method. Because climb and descend gradients are key factors in
calculating air traffic capacity, GAAA is used to simulate this operation. Results are
presented by diamonds and triangles. It is found that air traffic capacity calculated by
GAAA is by far better than the traditional recursive method.
The expression O(n) is defined as the complexity of algorithm, where n is the
number of aircraft. . The complexity of traditional recursive method is O[(n − 1)!] .
The complexity of GAAA is O(d + dn) , where d stands for the time of circulation.
GAAA simulation results indicated that constantly adjusting the cruising levels in
RVSM area can improve efficiency and safety. However, air traffic controllers also
consider other restricts factors such as structure of intersection and arriving aircrafts
in terminal area. They will reduce the number of aircraft entering the RVSM area.
Therefore, the theoretical capacity is always more than the practical capacity.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1390
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CONCLUSION
Due to weather condition and other special situation, the cruising level of
aircraft is changing constantly. The air route capacity will certainly be influenced by
the assignment mode of cruising level.
The main goal of this study is to calculate the air route capacity in RVSM area.
The conclusion of the research presented just one aspect of the problems in the whole
airspace. The airspace structure is usually divided into four restrictive sections which
are air routes, intersections, connective airspaces and aerodrome. Thus in order to
take full advantage of the RVSM area, the other sections should be included in the
calculation to improve the overall air traffic capacity. Further research is needed to
analyze the air routes capacity in RVSM area.
REFERECES
Chen, H., and Pan, W. (2009). “The model and arithmetic research of flight route
capacity of RVSM area.” Physical Science Journal of Southwest Nation
University transaction, Vol 32, No.1.
Cheng, P., Cuic, D., and Wu, C. (2001). “Management model of short-term air traffic
flow based on the optimization.” Journal of Tsinghua University (Sci &
Tech), 2001, Vol. 41, No. 1.
Gao, J. (2003). Theory and simulation examples on the artificial manual Neural
Network, The Publishing Company of Mechanization, Beijing.
ICAO. (2008). ICAO flight planning requirements for RVSM airspace, ICAO
Regional Supplementary Procedures for Europe (Doc 7030 EUR).
Ma, L., Zhu G., and Ning, A. (2008). Swarm Intelligence optimization algorithm. The
Science publishing company.
Suchkov, A., and Mondoloni, S. (2002). “Strategic RVSM - benefits of utilization of
additional flight levels for conflict resolution during transition to domestic
RVSM”. The 21st Digital Avionics Systems Conference.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1391
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Optimization of Car-parking Guidance Signs for Areas with Urban Transport

Hubs

Yuchuan DU1, Yubo LIU2, Xiaopeng ZHOU3 and Lijun SUN4

1
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
Tongji University, 200092, Shanghai, Siping Road 1239. PH(086) 021-69585712.
FAX(086) 021-69585712. email: ycdu@mail.tongji.edu.cn
2
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
Tongji University, 200092, Shanghai, Siping Road 1239. PH(086) 021-69588634.
FAX(086) 021-69588634. email: eagleliu026@gmail.com
3
Shanghai Traffic Police Division, 200018, Shanghai, Taiyangshan Road 38. PH(086)
021-28953667. FAX(086) 021-28953667. email: tongjizhou410@126.com
4
Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry of Education,
Tongji University, 200092, Shanghai, Siping Road 1239. PH(086) 021-69583810.
FAX(086) 021-69583810. email: ljsun@mail.tongji.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
The accelerating pace of urban development has given birth to the large-scale
transportation pivot, in which abundant traffic is abstracted and congregated. Drivers
often have difficulty obtaining reader-friendly available car-parking place
information in this area, inversely been confused with complicated layout of car-park
and having trouble finding their correct car-parking place when they returned. This
paper describes a choice behavioral model based on principal components analysis to
survey data. The model was used to determine the demand intensity of different
car-parking guidance information, which influences design of the car-parking
guidance system. A triple-level sign system was developed for indoor car-parking
guidance aims. The procedures were applied to the car-parking guidance system of
Hongqiao comprehensive transport hub in Shanghai.

INTRODUTION
Due to the lack of parking spaces in downtown, Car parking is always a
problem in metropolis. With the improvement of the society and the economic, and
the increasing of the amount of vehicles, the research on parking guidance system
has been more and more crucial. Parking guidance problems can be divided into
two kinds: guiding parkers to quickly find a spare space when they enter a parking
lot, guiding parkers find their parked car in a short time when they return to the car
park. In the past decades, how to design an advanced parking guidance has
attracted many attentions of researchers. Countries, such as United States, Japan,
and those in European countries are exploring the possibility to applying new
technologies in computing and telecommunication to enhance car park guidance. As
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1392
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early as 1971, the first parking guidance system in the world was established in
Aachen City, Germany (Rui, 2004). Later, European countries including France,
Switzerland, and UK set up similar system. In 2001, Thompson, Takada, and
Kobayakawa improved display optimization techniques of urban parking guidance
systems, and developed a new parking choice behavior model (Jun, 2007). They
managed to make motorists able to receive information on waiting time as
announced in advance by parking lots, and forecast influence of variable message
sign on overall operation of urban traffic systems, playing distinctive role of
guidance in the period of time with high demand for parking. In recent years, some
discussions in China have involved parking guidance, and parking guidance systems.
This has been established in Beijing and Shanghai (Guan, 2003).
In fact, for large-sized parking lots, helping people to quickly find their own
car’s position is a key point to the car park’s users, especially for these car parks in
traffic hub areas. First, this kind of parking lots usually has hundreds of parking
spaces with the complicated spatial distribution, which makes it hard to find the
target car directly. Second, parkers in traffic hub area always need to leave their cars
for a long time. Sometimes, they can hardly recall the scene of car stopping when
they come back to the car park. This studies intents to explore how to improve the
level of service of car parks by enhancing parker’s memory for his parking space,
namely the car-parking guidance sign system. The rest of the paper is organized as
follows. Section 2 presents the result of analysis on the survey data in large-size car
parks. Section 3 addresses the system design principles and procedure of car-parking
guidance sign system for large-size car parks. Section 4 describes the details of
application in Hongqiao comprehensive transport hub. Conclusions are drawn in
the last section.
QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY OF SERVICE LEVEL OF PARKING LOTS
Basic situations of the survey
Centering on the above-mentioned problems with parker’s memory of his
parking space, large scale questionnaire surveys were carried out among parkers in
Pudong Airport in Dec. 2009. Pudong Airport has Parking Lot P1 and P2 with
parking spaces totaling over 500 each, and belonging to large-sized parking lots in
traffic hub area. The questionnaires are based on aspects of parker’s gender, age,
occupation, and driving age. With the survey contents mainly including forgetting
of personal parking space, acceptance of existing static sign in the parking lots, and
expectations for static signs. Finally 814 questionnaires were returned, with 768 valid
questionnaires gained after removing invalid questionnaires for purpose of statistical
analysis.
Results of statistical analysis of the survey
Of the parkers responding to the survey 35% think that indistinct guidance
signs are most important factor influencing level of service, while 24% hold that the
most important factor influencing level of service is being hard to remember his
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1393
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parking space, shown as Figure 1. The results show that indistinct guidance sign and
being hard to remember personal parking space are top of the agenda to improve
level of service in parking lots.

Factors affecting level of service

12% 9%
Automobile traffic
chaos
35% Indistinct guidance
24% signs
Crowded entrances and
exits
Hard to remember
parking spaces
Bad subarea division
20%

Figure 1. The pie chart of factors affecting level of service.

56% of the parkers express that they had experience of forgetting the parking
spaces after leaving the parking lot.
61% of the parkers think that being hard to find a parking space is due to
indistinct static signs, a very high proportion, as shown in Figure 2.

Analysis of the difficulties to find the parking

spaces

26% 5%
Unclear static signs

61% Unclear dynamic

guidance
Unclear spare parking
8% information
Others

Figure 2. Analysis pie chart of the difficulties to find the parking spaces.
Analysis of demand intensity for information
As shown in Figure 3, 65% of the parkers think existing text-only static signs
can not well satisfy them in remembering parking space for finding their cars.
82% of the parkers hold that introduction of color of striking contract in
existing text-only static signs may enhance guidance effect of the signs.
71% of the parkers think that addition of forms with distinctive characteristics
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1394
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(for example, animals and fruits, etc) to existing text-only static signs will be able to
deepen memory of parking area and parking space.
89% of the parkers consider that text-only static signs supported with color of
striking contrast and form of distinctive characteristics will make better effects.

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6 High
0.5 Average
0.4 Low
0.3 Uncertain
0.2
0.1
0
T ext-only T ext and color T ext and figures T ext,color and
figures

Figure 3. The histogram of survey conclusion for static signs evaluation.

On the basis of the above-mentioned analysis results, we also need demand
intensity to describe how strongly parkers demand certain information. This will
help to explore the dimensionless parameters featuring importance of the information.
The parameters can both show passenger demand intensity for a message and
embody importance of the message. The formula for the purpose is:
Di   S ni
n (1)
Where:
Di - demand intensity for Message i .

 - Passenger sample space.

Sni
- Ratings of passenger n on Message i .
The ratings adopt 5, 3, 1, -1 gradient levels to correspond to the four options
of “high”, “average”, “uncertain” and “low” respectively, with analysis results as
shown in Figure 4:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1395
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5 4.63 4.72
4.5
4 4.24
3.5 Rating
3 curve of
2.5 demand
2 intensit
1.5 y
1
0.5 0.49
0
Text-only Text and Text and Text,color
color figures and figures

Figure 4. Rating curve of parker demand intensity for static signs.

The above-mentioned demand intensity analysis conclusions tell that demand
for various static signs can be described in low-high order as: text-only, text and
figure, text and color, combination of the above three kinds. 0.49 demand intensity
for text-only is obviously unsuitable for sign system of large-sized parking lots in
traffic hub area, while the combination of the first three creates higher demand
intensity than plan for sign of text and color, meaning better suitability.
Considering it is convenient to add figure contents on the basis of text and color with
low cost, large-sized parking lots in traffic hub area should use triple-level sign
system with combination of text, color, and figure. This is to deepen parker’s
memory of his parking space.
From the above conclusions of questionnaire survey it can be determined that,
for large-sized parking lots in traffic hub area, a triple-level sign system should be
developed on the basis of text sign supported with color of striking contrast and
figure of distinctive characteristics.
DESIGN OF THE TRIPLE-LEVEL SIGN SYSTEM FOR PARKING LOTS
Parking space sign systems are the marking system consisting of parking lot
identification signs, storey signs, and parking space signs for distinguishing between
parking spaces. A good parking space sign can help drivers to remember the
parking space of his car and find his car quickly and accurately when returning to the
parking lot. A good sign system should also be supported with considerations to
mentality, sense of reliance, good-looking and comfort, etc (Tianzhongzhiren, 2004).
Principles of parking space sign systems
For large-sized parking lots in traffic hub areas, the parking space sign system
should be made on the following principles:
Uniformity: signs used in traffic hub area should adopt figures generally used
in the world.
Continuity: signs showing directions should be arranged in places as needed
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1396
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by passengers and other people, and the signs should be continuous in contents.
Simplicity: signs should be simple and clear as far as possible. For example,
direction of passage toward traffic hub areas should be indicated only with numerical
character and supplementary arrow in principle.
Readability: as signs are always placed on building, and size of signs is
related to distance from the viewers, signs should be arranged in places where the
signs can be read clearly under any conditions (Russell G. et al., 1998).
Signs can adopt various characters and marks for indication, but visual
factors account for very high proportion in signs. In fact, color as the main element.
In design, color factors are often used as a mark in the sign or one for building sign
atmosphere (Foo Tuan Seik, 1997).
Triple-level sign system in parking lots
Based on the above analysis, this paper proposes the design of a triple static
sign system in large-sized parking lots in traffic hub areas as positioning signs for
parking spaces. The triple static sign system should be made in accordance with the
following method specifically:
First, text can be defined for the number of parking lots, and then figure signs
should be defined: if the parking lot is a multi-storey one, figure sign shall serve as
mark for distinguishing of levels. Or if the parking lot is a single-storey one, figure
sign shall serve as a mark for identification of sub-parking area. Finally, color can
be defined for the supplementary memory of figure, or as the exclusive sign of the
parking lot. In the system introduction of figures have not been touched in current
studies of parking lots sign system, and the figure sign is designed specially for
large-sized parking lots with more than 500 parking spaces.
Points for attention in arrangement of triple-level sign system:
Contents of text sign should be in accordance with international and domestic
sign standards.
Color sign should use color common and of striking contrast, for example,
red, green and blue, etc. In addition, when supported with color, full considerations
should be given to relations between color and figure sign. For example, when a
figure sign uses apple as the figure, red will be more reasonable choice of color for
the sign.
The sign figure should use forms with striking characteristics and familiar to
common people, or exclusive signs, for example, Donald Duck and Mickey for a
Disney.
Guidance sign: on the arrangement principle of combination of dynamic
guidance and static sign, to erect dynamic guidance board and static sign board in
peculiar positions. Combination of dynamic and static signs can give guidance to
drivers for them to enter or leave a parking lot quickly.
Position sign: to adopt text, figure and color triple-level sign system by
comprehensively using various marking methods. Of which text is used for the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1397
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number of parking lots, figure for storey identification mark and color for exclusive
sign of a parking lot. In the practice, specific study should be carried out for
matching of color and figure, so as to avoid misunderstanding of passengers.
Integration of text sign, color sign and figure sign into a uniform system can
make better effects of the system.
APPLICATION EXAMPLE-PARKING LOTS IN SHANGHAI HONGQIAO
COMPREHENSIVE
Hongqiao Comprehensive Traffic Hub is one of key projects of Shanghai.
After completion, it will make radiation effects of a core city in terms of external
traffic facilities, resources, functional services and other aspects. Hongqiao Traffic
Hub will be a very complex and very a big project for Asia, and even the world.
Hongqiao Traffic Hub’s parking lots for common motorists are considerably
complex, boasting six parking sectors with 4320 parking spaces in total. So it is
very necessary to establish a parking lot sign system so as to guarantee cars quick,
convenient, and safe going into and coming out of the Traffic Hub. The sign system
will play vital role in smooth operation of the Traffic Hub. However, sign systems
commonly used at present are very hard to meet the needs of so large a parking
system, so a triple-level sign system solution should then be used.
Parking lots in Hongqiao Traffic Hub adopt triple-level sign system of text,
figure, and color. In which text is designed for the number of parking lots,
including Parking Lot P5, P6, P7, P8, P9 and P10. Figures are mark for
identification of storey. Forms of distinctive characteristics are selected for figure
signs in the principle of triple-level sign system for the parking lots. Taking
Parking Lot P6 and P7 in the east suburb as an example, Parking Lot P6 uses
elephant, David’s deer, rhinoceros, rabbit, and monkey as characteristic sign of a
storey respectively. While P7 adopts five fruits including watermelon as the
characteristic signs for the same purpose. Color serves as the exclusive sign of a
parking lot, P6 uses yellow sign, and P7 green one.
Adoption of triple-level sign system can deepen impression of drivers and
passengers for their parking spaces, and help them to find their cars more
conveniently and quickly. The reasons for use of blue and yellow for distinguishing
between parking lots are that blue and yellow belong to the seven primary colors,
which have very high resolution. The only difference between uses of animals and
plants for distinguishing of stories is that difference between animals and plants can
help better distinguishing between parking lots, and each of the animals and the
plants has its own characteristics. This further helps user’s identification of
different stories. In addition, the text is written with high-brightness reflective
material, easy for reading.
Example of Parking Lot P6 in the east suburb as follows:
Those as shown in Figure 5 and 6 are signs for underground Storey 1 of
Parking Lot P6 in the east suburb. P6 and BM1 are text signs, rabbit for figure
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1398
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

signs and yellow for color signs. Text signs, figure signs and color signs work
jointly to form the triple-level sign system, providing very good guarantee for drivers
remembering of their parking spaces respectively.

Figure 5. A triple-level sign in P6 parking lot.

Parking lots in Hongqiao Traffic Hub partially adopted wall-mounted signs,
supported with text written with high-brightness reflective material and background
lighting, to give guidance for motorists to find a parking space.

Figure 6. Hanging signs in the parking lot.

In order to more strikingly highlight position and color signs in a parking lot,
a new sign arrangement mode is adopted in parking lots in Hongqiao Traffic Hub:
wall-sprayed, namely spraying color sign of a storey on main wall in a parking lot, as
shown in Figure 7. Adoption of wall-sprayed sign is mainly for intensifying
sensitive stimulation to passengers and enhancing their memory of the parking space.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1399
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Figure 7. Wall-sprayed signs in the parking lot.

As shown in the above Figure 7, the sign indication is prepared for
passengers to enter the parking lot to find their cars. In the parking lots, color sign
corresponding to the parking lots are sprayed on every storey and area near lifts,
supported with figure signs and text signs, making passengers unable to get to the
wrong storey or parking lot, facilitating them to find their cars.
Application of the triple-level sign system in Hongqiao Traffic Hub will
surely give full play to all sign systems there as a whole, and provide a greater
guarantee for smooth operation of Hongqiao Traffic Hub.
CONCLUSION
Based on the survey data in car parks, this paper analyzes the main problems
influencing level of service of large-size car parks. The method of demand intensity
for information is applied to determine the car-parking guidance sign system in
large-sized parking. The following conclusions are drawn in this paper:
1. Finding a spare parking space and finding the car position when the driver
is returning are two major aspects influencing the level of service in a large-sized
park. 56% of parking lot users had the experience of forgetting the parking spaces
of their cars.
2. Based on the above-mentioned analysis of demand intensity for
information, text-only information is hard to meet the need of positioning a car in a
large-sized parking lot. Color is better than a figure in improving memory, while
triple-level sign system with combination of text, color, and figures are the best for
remembering specific parking space in a large-sized parking lot.
3. The design principles and procedure for triple-level guidance sign system
for large-sized parking lots are developed, and an application example in Hongqiao
Comprehensive Traffic Hub was given.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This paper was based on the result of the research project “Exploring the
Characteristics of Travel Behavior under influence of Public Traffic Guidance Means
and Modeling in the Actual Urban Traffic Network, which was supported by a
research grant (60804048) form “National Natural Science Foundation of China
(NSFC)”. The authors take sole responsibility for all views and opinions expressed in
the paper.
REFERENCES
Chen, J. (2007). “Planning methods and information guidance technology for urban
parking facilities. Nanjing.” China: Southeast University Press, Nanjing,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1400
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

China, 2007.
Guan, H. (2003). “Design and management of parking lots. Beijing.” China:
China Communications Press, 2003.
Kobayakawa, R., and Satoru. (1998). “Understanding the demand for access
information.” Transportation Research, 1998. Part C Vol.6, 231-245.
Ren, T. (2004). “Universal design of environment signs.” Beijing, China:
China Building Industry Press, 2004.
Seik, F. (1997). “Experiences from Singapore’s park-ride scheme(1975-1996).”
Habitatitnl, 1997. Vol.21, 427-443.
Zhou, R. (2004). “Urban signs design.” Shanghai, China: Tongji University
Press, 2004.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1401
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

A Statistical Analysis of Pedestrian Speed on Signalized Intersection Crosswalk

Canbin HUANG1 and Wanjing MA2

1
Tongji University, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry
of Education, Shanghai 201804, China; email: huangcanbin@163.com
2
Tongji University, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the Ministry
of Education, Shanghai 201804, China; email: mawanjing@tongji.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Traffic signal control for pedestrian crossing is an effective measure to
improve safety and efficiency of pedestrian crossing. Pedestrian crossing speed at
signalized intersections is an important traffic engineering design parameter.
Countdown pedestrian signals (CPS) are increasingly being used as a supplementary
device of traditional pedestrian signals to improve pedestrian safety in China. This
research examined the distribution of pedestrian speed distribution on signalized
crosswalk and the impact of CPS on pedestrian crossing speed in Shanghai. The
Pedestrian walking speeds during different signal interval displays were analyzed at
the two similar characteristics intersections in the same road, one with CPS and the
other without CPS. The results revealed that walking speed seems to be following a
normal distribution no matter of male, female, older or younger. The average speed
of young people is dramatically larger than that of older people, and the average
speed of male is slightly larger than that of female. Compared with normal PGF
(Pedestrian Green Flashing), CPS change the walking speed distribution of
pedestrians and this effect are more dramatically at the last time span of signal
change interval.

INTRODUCTION
There were 327 thousand traffic accidents in China in 2007, and pedestrians
accounted for more than 15% of the traffic fatalities. In Shanghai alone, there are
nearly 100 traffic fatal collisions involving pedestrians in the first half of 2008. As
part of an overall strategy for improving pedestrian safety, especially at signalized
intersections, installing countdown pedestrian signals (CPS) at signalized
intersections was proposed as an efficient method. The CPS displays flashing
numbers that count down the time remaining until the end of the Pedestrian Green
Flashing (PGF) interval. When the countdown starts at the beginning of the
pedestrian signal change interval, the duration of the countdown is approximately
equal to the pedestrian clearance interval for the crosswalk (Yang and Ma, 2004).
The sequence of pedestrian signal displays changed from the pattern of “Green”
-“Pedestrian Green Flashing”-“Red” to the pattern of “Green”-“Pedestrian Green
Flashing accompanied by Countdown signals”-“Red”, as shown in Figure1. This
research evaluated the impact of CPS on pedestrian behavior in the City and gauged
the public’s perception of the CPS from a safety standpoint. Two intersections were
used for the study.
In review of the literature, it is evident that the first installation of countdown
signals occurred in Sacramento County, California in 1998. Since that time, many
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1402
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cities have installed countdown signals. According to Huang and Zegeer (2003) the
principal motivation for the pedestrian countdown signal is to aid pedestrians in
getting out of the street before they would be exposed to oncoming motor vehicles.
The 2003 MUTCD (2003) provides the national standard on the use of traffic control
devices, including the standard on CPS. The Technical Committee of the New
England Section of the Institute of Transportation Engineers conducted a study on
CPS that was installed at three intersections in Boston, Massachusetts (Ken, et al.,
2004). The research concluded that countdown signals did not cause any significant
improvement in the mentioned variables and in some instances they actually
degraded pedestrian safety. Based on the study of CPS installed at one located near a
senior citizen complex, The Rutgers Voorhees Transportation Policy Institute (RVTPI)
concluded that CPS seemed more beneficial to the vehicular traffic than to
pedestrians (Rutgers, et al., 2002).
Research on the application of CPS that coincided with the steady WALK and
Flashing Don’t Walk (FDW) indications utilized few intersections and generally
found pedestrians to be in favor of the device. Applications of CPS to only the FDW
indication were also the subject of research that also found pedestrians to be in favor
of the device while induce some unexpected consequences (Stephen, et al., 2007, Jan,
et al., 2002, Singer, et al., 2005, Edward, et al., 2007). However, due to the
differences of types of signal displays and pedestrian behaviors, their results are
informative, but not sufficient for evaluation the efficiency of CPS in China.
Along the same line of research, this study will focus on the pedestrian
walking speed of Shanghai, with the following objectives: Analysis of different
effects of CPS on pedestrian at target crosswalks, to determine whether the
countdown pedestrian signals increase desirable pedestrian crossing behavior(s)
while reducing the undesirable behaviors at signalized intersections.
The paper is organized as follows: The methodology is introduced in Section
2. Section 3 describes the study sites including the geometric characteristics, signal
plan and so on. Empirical results of pedestrian speed under different pedestrian
signal clear interval are presented in Section 4. Conclusions are summarized in the
last section.
METHODOLOGY
The performance of CPS and PGF was assessed by conducting operation
studies and pedestrian surveys. Where appropriate, studies were conducted at two
intersections with similar characteristics, one with CPS and the other with PGF
(without CPS). Video editing equipment was used to review the tape and to obtain
the pedestrian counts during the observation periods, as well as the frequencies of
pedestrian crossing behaviors.
Xizang-Fuzhou intersection
Located in downtown Shanghai, this intersection is adjacent to the People
Square, the center of Shanghai. Normally, pedestrian volume is high. This is a
two-phase traffic signal. The pedestrian phases are timed as follows: Crosswalk cross
5 lanes, has a 5-second “Green” interval and a 28-second “CPS” interval, followed
by a 42 second “Red” interval.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1403
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Figure 1. Xizang-Fuzhou crosswalk Figure 2. Hubei-Fuzhou crosswalk.

Hubei – Fuzhou intersection.
Located in downtown Shanghai, this intersection is adjacent to the
Xizang-Fuzhou intersection. This traffic signal utilizes conventional pedestrian
signals (without countdown) and was selected for pedestrian surveys at a
non-countdown signal location due to its similar geometric, geographic, and traffic
signal design and timing characteristics with Xizang-Fuzhou intersection. This is a
two phase traffic signal. The pedestrian phases are timed as follows: Crosswalk with
5 lanes has a 5-second Green interval and a 23-second “Green Flashing” interval,
followed by a 40 second “Red” interval.
Table 1. Parameters of two intersections.
Phase change Pedestrian
Crosswalk Width Length Time
interval Volume
Hubei-Fuzhou
5m 17m PGF 23s 1124 pph
crosswalk
Xizang-Fuzhou
5m 16m CPS 28s 817pph
crosswalk

The two sites were observed over two days each during the mid to late
afternoon. Totally 3384 pedestrians at two crosswalks are included in the analysis. In
order to review the effect on different people, four groups were divided: male or
female and elder or younger. It is incommodity to ask the age of every people and we
us the method of Expert Mark to classify the two groups. Five research assistants
were invited as experts to classify whether person is OLD or YOUNG, and the
average was adopted at the final classification of the person.
In order to analyze the effects of PCS, speeds at three stages are collected.
Stage 1: First 5 seconds of PCS and PGF; Stage 2: interim time; Stage 3: Last 5
seconds to the end of PCS and PGF.
RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
Pedestrian speed distribution in normal green
The analysis was focused on the pedestrian’s performance at the signalized
crosswalk. Average pedestrian walking speed is generally regarded as 1.2m/s to
1.4m/s. Pedestrian crossing speed at signalized intersections is an important traffic
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1404
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

engineering design parameter. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA, 1988)

recommends a pedestrian walking speed of 1.22m/s for traffic signal timing.
However, this value was questioned in a number of occasions. Dewar (1992)
recommended that 0.91 to 0.99m/s be used for traffic signal timing. Knoblauch,
Pietmcha, and Nitzburg (1996) conducted a study in which they compared walking
speeds of older pedestrian (65 years or older) with that of less than 65-year-old. They
recommended 1.25 and 1.51 m/s as the mean pedestrian speeds for 65 or older and
less than 65, respectively.
According to the distance and the walking time, the calculated average
walking speed on the crossing is shown in Figure3.

Younger

Older
Mean speed

Female

Male

0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Mean Speed (m/s)

Figure 3. The Average Walking Speeds.

As we can see from Figure 3 the pedestrian walking speeds focus between
1.11m/s and 1.47 m/s and different group have different average walking speed.

0.18
0.16
Male Femal
0.14
0.12
0.1
Ratio

0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Figure 4. Comparison of Male and Female Speed Distribution.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1405
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

0.18
0.16 Older Younger
0.14
0.12

Ratio
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
.7

.0
9

9
0.

1.

1.

1.

1.

1.
<0

>2
8-

0-

2-

4-

6-

8-
0.

1.

1.

1.

1.

1.
Figure 5. Comparison of Older and Younger Speed Distribution.
The comparative distribution of the walking speed can be expressed in Figure
4 and Figure 5. The walking speed looks like following a normal distribution whether
male, female, older or younger. The average speed of young people is dramatically
larger than that of older people, and the average speed of male is slightly larger than
that of female.
Pedestrian speed in CPS or PGF
Field studies were carried out to assess actual pedestrian crossing speed at
two intersections. Data were gathered at signalized intersections with and without
CPS. The total signal change interval, CPS and PGF time was divided into three
parts as introduce before: first 5 seconds of pedestrian green time (1), last 5 seconds
(3) and interim time (2). Pedestrians entering a crosswalk were observed, and their
curb-to-curb time during above three intervals was recorded. The results of walking
speed are summarized in Figures 6 and 7. (In the legend of Figure 6, young1 means
the speed of young people during time span 1---the first 5 seconds)

2.50

A: PGF
2.00
Pedestrian speed (m/h)

1.50

1.00

0.50
Young1 Young2 Young3
Old1 Old2 Old3
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1406
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

3.00
B: CPS
2.50

Pedestrian speed(m/s)
2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50
Young1 Young2 Young3 Old1 Old2 Old3
0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61

Figure 6. Pedestrian Walking Speed during Signal Change Interval.

Figure 6 show the discrete pedestrian walking speed and figure 7 show the
average pedestrian speed during three time spans of different signal change intervals.
Data of Figrues 6 and 7 prove that the CPS and PGF have different effects on
pedestrian walking speed and the effects distinguishing from different time span of
the total signal change interval. In the first part of signal change interval (numbered
1), the walking speed under CPS is slightly lower than walking speed under PGF.
However, the walking speed is much higher in the third time span (numbered 3)
under CPS than walking speed under PGF. This portion of the study indicate that
pedestrians’ crossing speeds are negligibly affected by the presence of the countdown
signal in the beginning of signal change interval while the beneficial of CPS is
revealed as signal change interval total time goes by. As a whole, ether old people or
young people gets benefit from CPS and the crossing successful rate are improved
accordingly.
2.50

2.00 PGF CPS

Pedestrian speed(m/s)

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
Young1 Young2 Young3 Old1 Old2 Old3

Figure 7. Analysis of Average Pedestrian Walking Speed during Signal Change

Interval.
CONCLUSION
Based on the limited observations made, one intersection with CPS and the
other without CPS, pedestrians exhibit different behavior depending on age, sex and
the type of pedestrian signal change interval displays used:
The walking speed looks like following a normal distribution whether male,
female, older or younger. The average speed of young people is dramatically larger
than that of older people, and the average speed of male is slightly larger than that of
female.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1407
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Compared with normal PGF, CPS change the walking speed distribution of
pedestrians and this effect are more dramatically at the last time span of signal
change interval. This seems to improve the efficiency of crosswalk and at the same
time increase the pedestrian accelerating behavior, especially for young people.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The research is funded by projects of National Natural Science Foundation of
China (No: 70631002, 50808142), Shanghai Urban Construction & Communications
project (No: Construction Science 2008-2). The research also supported by Program
for Young Excellent Talents in Tongji University.
REFERENCES
Eccles, K. A. (2003). “Evaluation of pedestrian countdown signals”. Silver Spring,
Maryland State Highway Administration.
Edward, R. S., McGee, H., and Kimberly E. (2007). “Pedestrian signal safety for
older persons.” http://www.tsc.berkeley.edu/links/PEDsigtiminglow.pdf.
Federal Highway Administration. (2003). Manual on uniform traffic control devices
for streets and highways, Federal Highway Administration.
Huang, H., and Zegeer, C. (2003). “The effects of pedestrian countdown signals in
lake buena vista”. Florida Department of Transportation.
Jan, L. B., Aleksandr A. Z., and Jennifer E. D. (2002). “Pedestrian countdown signals:
an experimental evaluation. volume 1”. http:
//www.sanjoseca.gov/transportation/forms /report_pedcountdown .pdf.
Ma, W. (2004). Study on the traffic design and control theory of pedestrian crossing.
Master Thesis, Tongji University, Shanghai.
Ma, W., and Yang X. (2004). “Design method of pedestrian phases at multi-phase
signal intersection”. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering.
4(2): 103-107.
Petraglia, K. (2004). An evaluation of countdown pedestrian signals.
Singer, J. P., and Lerner N. D. (2005). “Countdown pedestrian signals: a comparison
of alternative pedestrian change interval displays.” Federal Highway
Administration. Washington, DC:
Stephen, A. A., and Errol C. N. (2007). “Impact of countdown pedestrian signals on
pedestrian behavior and perception of intersection safety in the district of
columbia”. Proceedings of the 2007 IEEE Intelligent Transportation
Systems Conference, Seattle, WA.
Yang, X., and Ma, W. (2005). “Criterion of setting exclusive pedestrian phases at two
phases signalized intersections”. Journal of Highway and Transportation
Research and Development. 22(1), 127-131.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1408
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Intersection Signal Timing Method Based on the Optimization of Average

People Delay

Xu QU 1, Jun CHEN 2, and Wenfu WANG 3

1
School of Transportation, Southeast University Nanjing, 210096, China
E-mail: xuquseu@hotmail.com
2
School of Transportation, Southeast University Nanjing, 210096, China;
E-mail: chenjun@seu.edu.cn
3
School of Transportation, Southeast University Nanjing, 210096, China; E-mail:
wwfseu1987@163.com

ABSTRACT
This study takes the features of mixed traffic flow of China into consideration
and puts forward a signal timing method based on the notion of human orientation.
Since the object function of this method regards the effect of average passenger delay
and the number of average on-board passengers of different traffic modes, the
minimum average people delay (APD) was set as optimization objective and the
shortest green time was used as constraint function. Besides, the green split in our
method is determined by a new parameter PPF, which is the product of the passenger
volume rate and flow ratio. A set of solution method was also established to set up
the signal timing model. Finally, a typical intersection in Nanjing City was calculated
in this new method. The comparison results of this new method to the current field
data indicate that the average people delay can be reduced using the signal timing
method proposed in this article.

INTRODUCTION
Traffic signal timing optimization has been recognized as one of the most
cost-effective traffic management methods for improving traffic congestion within
the urban transportation system. Appropriate signal timing plans can reduce not only
extra delay for drivers but also the stop times and enhance the capacity of
intersection.
Lots of basic signal timing theories have been studied by many transportation
scientists including those developed by Webster (Webster, 1958), Richard (Richard,
1972), Chang (Chang et al., 1999) and that described in the Highway Capacity
Manual (TRB, 2000). However, in most of those methods, optimal cycle length is
usually determined in such a way that the expected average vehicle delay or total
vehicle delay is minimized, and specific green split is distributed according to v/c
ratios of the critical lane groups. Relatively few of those methods have taken the
average passengers of different traffic modes or bicycle mode into account. However,
in a majority of cities in China, bicycle is serving as one of the leading traffic modes
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1409
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

and this situation will be persistent for a long time. The ignorance of bicycle when
addressing traffic problems has caused severe problems in China. Gao (Gao et al.,
2003) considered the influence of not only motor vehicles but also non-vehicle traffic
on signal timing. He introduced a conversion coefficient to convert bicycle into
vehicle, and advised the range of the conversion coefficient around 0.2. Feng (Feng
et al., 2007) considered the different average passengers between bus and car, a
model fixed time single bus priority signal planning was established to minimize the
average delay of passengers.
A signal timing method for isolated intersections considering the
comprehensive traffic modes is proposed in this paper. An objective of minimal
average people delay (APD) is established by taking the average delay of all
passengers into account in the specific intersection, and then a parameter named PPF,
which is the product of passenger volume, and flow ratio is introduced to split the
green time for each cycle.
MODEL AND METHOD
Both the cycle length and green split are the most essential parameters which
have significant impact on the performance and operation of isolated signalized
intersections. In this part the optimal model for determining the cycle length and the
method for splitting the green time are proposed.
Model for determining the cycle length. APD is defined as the average
delay of all passengers in the specific intersection within one cycle length. It equals
the ratio of total delay to total passenger volume in a specific intersection within one
cycle. In our model, total delay is the sum of the product of average vehicle delay,
vehicle volume and average passengers of each traffic mode in all lane groups within
one cycle, while total passenger volume is the sum of the product of vehicular
volume and average passengers of each traffic mode in all lane groups within the
cycle. With the characteristic of mixed traffic in China considered, a model with the
target of minimum APD is built up as follows:
m l

 d
j 1 k 1
jk  q jk  pk
min D  m l
(1)
 q
j 1 k 1
jk  pk

St:  (g i  Li )  C

gi  gimin

Where, D = Average people delay (APD); d jk = average delay of mode k for lane
group j within one cycle; q jk = arrival rate of mode k for lane group j within one
cycle; pk = average passengers of mode k; j stands for lane group; k stands for
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1410
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

traffic modes, including bicycle, bus and non-bus motor vehicles; Li =lost time for
phase i; gi =green time for phase i; C = cycle length; and gimin = the minimum green
time for phase i, it can be estimated by the equation recommended by the current
Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) (TRB 2000) or local practice.
The equations (2) and (3) recommended by the HCM are used in the above
model to calculate the average delay of motor vehicles and bicycle. The delay of
motor vehicles can be estimated using the following equation:
g
C (1  vj ) 2 8kIxvj
d vj  C PF  900T [( xvj  1)  ( xvj  1) 2  ]  d0 (2)
g vj cvjT
2[1  min(1, xvj ) ]
C
Where, d vj = control delay per motor vehicle for lane group j; PF = progression
adjustment factor, 1.0 is a reasonable estimate for isolated intersections; T = duration
of analysis period (h), its default value is 0.25; k = incremental delay factor that is
dependent on controller settings, a value of 0.5 is used for pre-timed signals; I =
upstream filtering/metering adjustment factor, a value of 1.0 is used for isolated
intersections; d 0 = initial queue delay; g vj = effective green time for lane group j;
xvj = degree of saturation for lane group j; and cvj = capacity for lane group j.
The delay of bicycles can be estimated using the following equation:
g
C (1  bj ) 2
dbj  C (3)
g bj
2[1  min(1, xbj ) ]
C
Where, d bj = average delay of bicycles for lane group j; gbj =green time of bicycles
for lane group j; xbj = degree of saturation of bicycles for lane group j; and other
symbols are defined identically as previous definition.
Method for splitting the green time. It has been confirmed that the
following two principles should be addressed for the purpose of reducing average
delay and avoiding the congestion on the crowded lane group when splitting green
time of an intersection: Firstly more green time should be assigned for the lane group
with heavier passenger volume rather than with heavier vehicle volume; Secondly
more green time should be dedicated to the lane group with relatively bigger flow
ratio (which is the ratio of the actual flow rate and the saturation flow rate for a lane
group at an intersection).
Based on these two principles, a new parameter named PPF (the product of
the passenger volume rate and flow ratio) is introduced in this paper. In the process
of signal timing, the PPF`s value of different traffic modes on all lane croups should
be calculated in each phase. The critical PPF which is the highest PPF for all lane
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1411
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groups in a given phase should serve as a key parameter in splitting the green time.
The green split can be calculated as:
CL PPFi max
i   (4)
C  PPFi max
i

Where, i = the green split in phase i; C = cycle length; L = the total lost time;
PPFi max = the maximum PPF for all the lane groups in phase i; and PPF can be
obtained by the following equation:
  q
PPF j    q jk  pk   j (5)
 k  sj

Where, PPF j =PPF for lane group j; q jk = arrival rate of mode k for lane group j;
pk = average passengers of mode k; q j = flow rate for lane group j; and s j =
saturation flow rate for lane group j; j stands for vehicles or bicycles lane group.
CALCULATIONS
It has been confirmed that both excessive long and excessive short cycle
length will lead to significant delay in practice, the minimum delay occurs in some
moderate circle length (Ji et al., 2004). The increase rate of total delay alters from
slow to rapid with the extension of the cycle length from the optimal point.
As to the optimal solution of model (1), the following process should be addressed:
(1) Postulate an initial cycle length C0 (100 seconds is a commonly used value for
cycle length in signal timing), calculate the value of average people delay D0 ;
(2) Decrease the cycle by 1 step length (suppose the length to be 1 seconds), then the
cycle length equals C1= C0-1 (i starts from 0);
(3) Recount the average people delay D1, if D0>D1, continue the decrease of cycle by
1 step length until Di<Di+1;
(4) Check whether the current value of Ci meet the restrictions, if so, then Ci is the
solution, if not, the minimum circle length meets the restrictions is the solution.
Noted, if in procedure (3), D0<D1, then increase the cycle 1 step by another until
Di<Di+1, a checkout of the restrictions is also necessary. Ci is the solution if it meet
the restrictions, if not, the minimum circle length meets the restrictions is the
solution.
CASE STUDY AND RESULTS
A typical four-leg intersection on arterial city road located in Nanjing city is
selected to a case study. An objective of minimum average people delay (APD) is
addressed, and PPF is treated as a key parameter in signal timing of the intersection.
Step 1: Phase plan development. The subject intersection is treated as a
four-phase intersection and develop the phase plan as follows: Phase A, a phase for
N-S through movements; Phase B, an exclusive N-S left-turn phase; Phase C, a phase
for E-W through movements; Phase D, an exclusive E-W left turn phase. Moreover,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1412
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right-turn movement is permissible in all phases.

Step 2: PPF calculation. The proposed arrival volumes of non-bus motor
vehicles, buses, and bicycles are illustrated in Table 1.

Table 1. The Proposed Arrival Volumes of Each Traffic Mode.

Volume of non-bus Volume of
Volume of buses(veh/h)
Phase motor vehicles(veh/h) bicycles(veh/h)
Left Through Right Left Through Right Left Through Right
A 459 500 111 12 16 0 317 768 185
B 212 455 134 6 14 2 348 854 186
C 196 499 190 6 26 6 217 863 268
D 262 476 160 14 23 7 192 503 269

The average passenger volumes for non-bus motor vehicles, buses, bicycles
are fixed as 3, 30, 1 (Zhang et al., 2004). The saturation flow rate for each lane group
was calculated according to field data with the method recommended by the HCM.
Then calculate the PPF of motor vehicles and non-motorized vehicles for each lane
groups in every phase, the results are shown in Table 2.

Table 2. The PPF of Motor Vehicles and Non-motorized Vehicles in Each Phase.
PPF of motor vehicles PPF of bicycles
Phase
Left Through Right Left Through Right
A 287.69 360.25 28.00 50.18 294.91 17.08
B 101.94 283.22 49.41 60.55 365.00 17.30
C 89.09 384.22 121.29 23.59 372.21 35.80
D 187.33 342.47 100.06 18.43 126.40 36.13

Step 3: Green split determination. The critical PPF was selected in each
phase. Use equation (4) to split the green time, the results are shown in Table 3.

Table 3. Green Split Determination Based on Critical PPF.

Critical Sum of Green Initial Sum of Effective
Lost
Phase PPF in Critical Split Cycle Effective Green
Time(s)
Each phase PPF (%) Length(s) Green Time Time(s)
A 365.00 0.30 24
B 287.69 0.23 19
1224.24 100 20 80
C 384.22 0.31 25
D 187.33 0.15 12

Step4: Optimal cycle length. Postulate the original cycle length to be 100
seconds and calculate the APD with equation (1). The cycle length with an objective
of minimal APD is achieved by using the calculation method mentioned above.
Results demonstrate that the desirable cycle length in our paper for this
method is 94 seconds; the average people delay (APD) for the cycle is 40 seconds.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1413
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Another cycle length and green split were calculated by using a traditional signal
timing method, and the cycle length is 96 seconds and the APD is 44 seconds. It
indicates that the APD is decreased by 9% with the signal timing methods in this
paper.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The object of minimal average passenger delay is established to determine the
cycle length, and the critical PPF is introduced to split the green time in this paper. In
comparison with those traditional timing methods, whose optimal cycle length is
usually determined by the objective of minimal average vehicle delay, and specific
green splits are distributed according to critical vehicle volume of the specific phase,
the timing method proposed in this paper is more advisable for it is in accordance
with the human-oriented scientific notion. The influence of bicycle traffic mode and
the different average passengers between bus and non-bus motor vehicles are
considered in our timing method, this is in accord with the mixed traffic condition of
cities in China. Through the case study this method is especially suitable for the
intersection with more bicycles and buses.
It should be noted that the equations for calculating the delay in this paper are
suggested by the HCM, which are based on the traffic characteristics of western
countries. Results of these equations may not accurately describe the specific
condition of China. More calibration work is preferable, and further researches will
be done to put forward more accurate delay model for intersections in cities of China.
In addition, signal timing is a multi-objective task. Delay, fuel consumption, air
pollution, and safety all should be considered in the future human-oriented signal
timing research.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research is supported by Project of National Natural Science Foundation
of China (No.50738001) and 863 Program of China: 2008AA11Z201.
REFERENCE
Allsop, R.E. (1972). “Delay at a fixed time traffic signal I: theoretical analysis.”
Transportation Science, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 260-285.
Chang, T., and Lin, J. (2000). “Optimal signal timing for an oversaturated
intersection.” Transportation Research Part B, 34, pp. 471-491.
Feng, Y., Pei, Y., and Cao, C. (2007). “Study of single bus priority signal planning
under the mixed traffic flow.” Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology,
Vol.139, No.12 (in Chinese).
Gao, H., Chen, D., and Chen, L. (2003). “Study on signal timing of hybrid traffic
flow.” Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,
Vol.20, No.4 (in Chinese).
Ji, Y., Deng, W., Wang, W., and Zhang, W. (2004). “Study on the design of signal
phase based on bus priority intersections.” Journal of Highway and
Transportation Research and Development, Vol.21, No.12 (in Chinese).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1414
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TRB (2000). Highway capacity manual. Transportation Research Board, National

Research Council. Washington D.C. USA.
Webster, F.V. (1958). “Traffic signal settings.” Road Research Laboratory Technical
Report, No. 39, H.M.S.O., London.
Zhang, W., Shi, Q., and Liu, Q. (2004). “Study of vehicle delay calculation and
optimal signal-planning method for intersections with induced signal based
on bus priority.” Journal of HUST (Urban Science Edition), Vol.21, No.4.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1415
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EXPRESSWAY WORK ZONE LIFE CYCLE USER COSTS MODEL

Jingwei YU1, Xiaoming HUANG1 and Gongyun LIAO1

1
School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China; PH (0)
15996226702; email: fish1945@sina.com.cn

ABSTRACT: The work zone cost analysis method is an important part of Life Cycle
Cost Analysis (LCCA) and plays an important role of correct LCCA costs calculation.
Considering that little research has been conducted on the expressway work zone
costs model in China, this paper carried out a preliminary research in the field. It first
analyzed the important role of the work zone costs at the expressway using LCCA
method, and then it analyzed the work zone life-cycle (LCC) costs composition.
Related calculation models necessary for analysis of work zone users costs, such as
fuel consumption model, user delay costs model and crash costs model and so on
were also proposed in this paper.

INTRODUCTION
LCCA (Life Cycle Cost Analysis) method is employed as an effective tool of
long-term performance of the use of the expressway with limited investment. LCCA
cost has two key components, namely: Agency Costs and User Costs. Life-cycle
analysis in our country used to mainly consider Agency Costs and rarely considered
the cost of user costs, and research has shown that in case of large volume of traffic,
the user costs are as high as 90% in the whole life cost (Sun, 2005). Therefore,
studying the implementation of LCCA analytical methods through the user costs on
expressway is of great practical significance. Under normal circumstances the
calculation of user charges is mainly divided into two cases, the normal operations
and work zone, to consider. While the expressway under normal operating
circumstances, there is little difference between vehicles operating costs of different
surface designs, user delay costs and crash costs so it can not be overlooked.
Therefore, in the LCCA method, calculation of user costs is, in fact, the part of the
calculation of life cycle costs of work zone (FHWA, 1998).
THE IMPORTANT ROLE OF WORK ZONE AT THE EXPRESSWAY LCCA
METHOD
As above, under normal circumstances, the expressway LCC user costs are
considered from the two aspects: (1) normal operations; (2) work zone. If under
normal operating conditions, the performance of the two programs has a big
difference, for example, when compared with the other program, if the damage of
one program is especially fast, it will inevitably lead to an increase in the user costs
because of extra delay time and vehicle operating costs. However, the study shows
that, the requirements for the roughness of high grade highway, especially
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1416
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expressway are particularly high, so, in the normal operating conditions, the
differences of user costs of different road programs are generally small. And the core
idea of expressway life cycle cost analysis is to meet performance requirements; in
that case, through comparison, the pavement structure program of lower life-cycle
cost will be chosen.
In the analysis of various comparison programs, the main difference in program
costs and benefits is worth consideration; while there will be no necessity to consider
those totally same or similar cost programs. So in the life cycle cost analysis, there is
no need to consider user costs for the expressway under normal conditions. Therefore,
in the LCCA highway method, calculation of user fees, in fact, is the work on the
work zone LCC. Specific roles are illustrated in the following Figure 1:

Figure 1. Pavement structure evaluation method frame based on LCCA.

COMPOSITION OF THE COST OF WORK ZONE

The conservation work area in the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) is defined
as specific regions on the road where conservation activities are carried out, and the
existence of such a region occupies the user’s road and interferes with the traffic flow
and generates additional operating costs (Vehicle Operating Costs, hereinafter
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1417
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referred to as VOC), user delay costs and crash costs.

While in our country, the Safety Work Rules for Highway Maintenance defines
work zone as the traffic management area for the highway maintenance and repair
operations, which is divided into warning area, upper reaches of the transition area,
buffer area, work area, the lower reaches of the transition area and termination area.
It can be seen that the difference in the definition of the conservation area between
our country and the United States reflects the fact that our country only attaches
importance to the safety issues for work zone but does not consider its life cycle
costs.
This paper focuses on the research into a practical work zone key model, in
hopes of filling the present blank in work zone life-cycle cost analysis study in
China.
Through the definition of work zone, we can get a general idea that the fees paid
by the user in work zone include the extra vehicle operating costs, caused by
implementation of work zone, user delay costs and crash costs.
Computation of work zone costs can be shown as the following Equation (1)
(Najafi and Soares, 2001).
WZUC = TTDC + VOC + WZAC (1)
where WZUC= work zone user costs (￥); TTDC= travel time delay costs (￥); VOC
= additional VOCs (￥); and WZAC = work zone crash costs (￥).
MODELS OF WORK ZONE USER COSTS
Model of vehicle operating costs (VOC)
How to establish a VOC model is the most difficult problem in studying work
zone user costs. The establishment of a comprehensive VOC model involves a lot of
field tests, such as the World Bank’s Brazil model (Wang, 1993). The domestic
relevant study has made re-calibration of the parameter work on the basis of the
Brazil model (Yao, 1993). But these studies have been carried out at the cost of vast
human and material resources, and meanwhile, they study the common road but this
study is on the highway. It is not necessary to spend much time and energy setting up
a comprehensive VOC model in view of the characteristics of expressway. In
accordance with the laws of the development of things, determining the nature of
things is the principal contradiction. This paper is a study mainly on the expressway,
therefore we can seize the key factors and make a breakthrough in the key model and
solve the major issues in the study. Complete VOC mainly include fuel consumption
model, wheel consumption model, and warranty material model. According to the
domestic and abroad study, oil consumption is the main consumption of VOC.
Compared with the oil consumption, other consumptions account for a very low
percentage and can be neglected (Michael, 2005). Such considerations can seize the
main problem of things while at the same time save a lot of unnecessary human and
material resources. So in this study, we just consider the oil consumption model.
Through comparison we find that there are many similarities between work zone and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1418
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urban road intersections. According to data collection and study, we have decided to
make use of the oil consumption model already established in relevant researches
(Qiao, 2000).
(1) The fuel consumption model of cycling through work zone, slowing down while
not stopping, can be shown as the following Equation (2).
WFC  FC d  FC a  FC s (2)

where WFC = fuel consumption produced by vehicles when they are through the
work zone; FCd = the fuel consumption produced by vehicles before the process of
deceleration when they are entering the work zone; FCa = fuel consumption
produced by vehicles traveling uniformly in the work zone; and FCs = fuel
consumption produced by vehicles in the process of acceleration when they are
leaving the work zone.
The total oil consumption is determined according to the sizes of the vehicles
and the traffic volume.
(2) The fuel consumption model for a bicycle which stops through the parking area
can be shown as the following Equation (3).
WFC  FC d  FC a  FC s (3)

where WFC = fuel consumption produced by vehicles when they are through the
work zone; FCd = fuel consumption produced by a vehicle in the process of
deceleration; FCa = fuel consumption produced by a vehicle the process of
acceleration; and FCs = fuel consumption produced by vehicles in the process of
stopping in the vicinity of the work zone.
The total oil consumption is determined according to the sizes of the vehicles
and the traffic volume. After measuring the total fuel consumption in work zone,
according to the gasoline prices in the corresponding period, the work zone VOC
value can be worked out.
User delay costs model
User delay costs model is a difficult question at home and abroad, because the
user delay costs model is determined in the general form of questionnaire, one of the
most important question asks respondents to disclose their income, but in fact, it’s
difficult for people to fill in the real data out of personal protection .In practical work,
it is not only time-consuming and labor-intensive to do this task using the form of
survey, but also the reliability of the results can not be guaranteed. According to the
actual situation, the following Equation (4) are proposed to calculate user delay
costs:
3
AAE  ATT  C i %
UDC    ni (4)
i 1 12  30  24
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1419
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where UDC = the total cost of user delay (￥); AAE= the average income of people
in the region of expressway; ATT= Traffic volume; Ci = vehicles models (including
passenger cars, a fixed body type vehicle, combination of the three types of
body-type) accounts for the percentage of total traffic; and ni = fuel consumption
produced by vehicles in the process of stopping in the vicinity of work zone.
The above user delay cost model not only saves the substantial human and
material resources caused by questionnaires but also avoids the unreliability of the
information provided by the people being investigated.
The model of crash costs:
Because it is hard to determine whether the crash is caused by work zone, crash
cost is more difficult to study both at home and abroad. In this section, considering
the status of our country we intend to apply the steps as following.
(1) Determine the rate of crash in work zone
Through the Highway Management Department we can receive the detailed
information on the cost caused by the conservation work area every year since an
expressway opened traffic. Adding up the number of crashes, then divided by the
length of work zone and the total number of vehicles, we can get the rate of crash
shown as pieces / 1000000 / km / year. The calculation of specific crash rate is as
following Equation (5):
WZCV
WZCR  (5)
WZL  RTV
where：WZCR= work zone crash rate; WZCV = work zone crash volume;
WZL= work zone length;RTV = road traffic volume.
After working out the annual crash rate, we try to set up a relationship between
crash rate and the volume of traffic. If it is difficult to set up any relationship, the
average can be considered as the crash rate.
(2) Determine the rate of crash cost in work zone
Through the Highway Management Department, detailed information can be
obtained on the traffic crashes caused by work zone since the expressway opened
traffic. All the traffic crashes are divided into three types: 1) vehicles; 2) people; 3)
the loss of cargo (i.e. the amount of compensation awarded - as traffic crashes). In
accordance with the relevant economic laws, it can be converted to the costs of a
certain base year, and then be divided by the length of work zone and the total
number of vehicles, thus reaching the crash rate RMB / one million / km. The
average of crash rates in each year as the rate of crash cost.
(3) Determine the cost of crashes in work zone
The cost of crashes in work zone is equal to the traffic volume in the future
implementation of work zone and the length of work zone multiplied by the crash
rate and then multiplied by the rate of crash cost. The specific Equation (6) is as
follows:
WZCC  RTV  WZL  WZCR  WCZCR (6)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1420
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where：WZCC = work zone crash costs; RTV = road traffic volume; WZL= work
zone length; WZCR= work zone crash rate; and WCZCR = work zone crash costs
rate.
CONCLUSIONS
Work zone user costs are of great significance to the method of expressway
LCCA study. Therefore, establishment and improvement of a calculation model for
the cost of work zone plays a vital role in forming the actual highway asphalt
pavement LCCA method based on the reality in China, and making further
improvement of the standard of service of highways in China, as well as achieving a
more rational allocation of resources. The setting up of the user cost model of work
zone is a complicated systematic project. This paper, according to the reality of
China (1) puts forward an LCCA fuel consumption model of work zone; (2) puts
forward an LCCA user delay costs model of work zone; (3) puts forward an LCCA
model of crash costs of conservation work zone. However this is just some
preliminary work; and more research are still to be conducted on how to make an
accurate measurement of the cost of components in work zone and on how to
establish and improve related models and on how to validate these models. It is
worth our further study.
REFERENCES
FHWA (1998). “Life cycle cost analysis in pavement design-in search of better
investment decisions.” Pavement Division Interim Technical Bulletin,
FHWA, Washington, D.C., 12~112.
Michael, R. A. (2005). “Development of a user cost estimations procedure for work
zones.” Brigham Young University, 15～121.
Najafi, F. T., and Soares, R. (2001). “User costs at the work zone.” Canadian Journal
of Civil Engineering, NRC Research Press, July 31, 2001.
Qiao, X. (2000). “Research on vehicle fuel consumption in the urban transportation
system.” Southeast University, Nanjing, 80-97.
Sun, L. (2005). Structural behavior study for asphalt pavements, China
Communications Press, Beijing, 518-567.
Yao, Z. (1993). Pavement management system, China Communications Press,
Beijing, 37-77.
Wang, Z. (1993). Vehicle operating costs of pavement management system. Tongji
University, Shanghai, 1-58.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1421
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Parameter Calibration of VISSIM Simulation Model based on the

Orthogonal Experiment

Yongzheng KANG1,2, Man ZHAI3, Huili ZHANG1,2 and Changchun

ZHANG4
1
School of traffic and transportation, Shijiazhuang Railway Institute, Shijiazhuang,
Hebei, China, 050043; PH (86) 311-87935516; FAX (86) 311-87935516; email:
kyz1974@sina.com
2
Traffic Safety and Control Lab of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China,
050043; PH and FAX (86) 311-87935516; email: kyz1974@sina.com
3
School of traffic and transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China,
100044
4
The Fourth Survey and Design Institute CO, LTD of CRCC, Wuhan, 430063

ABSTRACT
As a mature foreign micro-simulation tool, VISSIM software is used widely in
China. However, the simulation parameters tend to be default or determined
empirically when actually applied in studying traffic operations in China. Domestic
parameter calibration of traffic simulation models is usually based on urban
expressway characteristics which are in general quite different from surface street
intersections. Therefore, calibration methods for intersections under the mixed traffic
environment are rarely studied.
In this paper, an orthogonal experiment is applied to the parameter calibration of
VISSIM simulation model at an intersection. We propose the calibration process of
calibration target determination, parameter selection, orthogonal design and range
analysis to determine the parameters to be used, and a specific calibration method
has been studied to verify its applicability, which can prove it is a good method to
reduce the number of simulation experiment as well as to improve work efficiency.

INTRODUCTION
VISSIM as a traffic analysis tool has been widely accepted and applied in
transportation system design, traffic control and optimization, and traffic
management and evaluation. However, the software ignores the simulation model’s
applicability itself and the corresponding calibration requirements in the actual
applications, which leads to a certain gap between simulation results and theoretical
results of current traffic. Therefore, the parameter calibration of VISSIM
simulation models becomes a significant prerequisite for its promoting.
Many domestic and foreign experts have studied on the parameter calibration of
VISSIM simulation modeling. (Park et al., 2002) made the parameter calibration
experiment design based on Latin hypercube sampling. (Gomes et al., 2004) used
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1422
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VISSIM to simulate the vehicle flow in crowded sections of highway for parameter
calibration; (Yu et al., 2004) primarily applied genetic algorithm to optimize the
parameter calibration of traffic simulation models; (Park et al., 2006) proposed the
systematic VISSIM parameter calibration and verification procedures. Sun et al.
(2007) applied genetic simulated annealing algorithm for calibration; Yang et al.
(2006) used multi-scenario analysis in two-lane section of mixed traffic flow for
parameter calibration of VISSIM simulation model.
Few parameter calibration methods of simulation models in intersection and road
section have been studied for mixed traffic conditions in Chinese complex urban
intersection traffic. Transportation as a complex system involves people, vehicles,
roads, and the environment etc. Mere mathematical optimization algorithms would
not be a true reflection of the micro-simulation of intersection, thus, the selected
calibration method should reflect the true complex system, reduce the experiment
number and improve the work efficiency as possible.
CALIBRATION TARGET OF INTERSECTION MODEL
The calibration target of simulation modeling in generally is making the
simulation results and the actual measurement minimal or zero differences. In this
paper, the research object is the average delay of straight vehicle in the entries of
intersection. So the calibration target is to make the average delay of the actual
measurement and simulation results relatively minimal differences. Based on the
above analysis, the objective function is defined as follows:

DDZS − DDZF DNZS − DNZF

ε = 0.25 × + 0.25 ×
DDZS DNZS
DXZS − DXZF DBZS − DBZF
+0.25 × + 0.25 ×
In the function, DXZS DBZS
ε －the objective function of parameter calibration,%；
DDZS－measured average delay of straight vehicle in east entry, s/ vehicle;
DDZF－simulated average delay of straight vehicle in east entry, s/ vehicle;
DNZS－measured average delay of straight vehicle in south entry, s/ vehicle;
DNZF－simulated average delay of straight vehicle in south entry, s/ vehicle;
DXZS－measured average delay of straight vehicle in west entry, s/ vehicle;
DXZF－simulated average delay of straight vehicle in west entry, s/ vehicle;
DBZS－measured average delay of straight vehicle in north entry, s/ vehicle;
DBZF－simulated average delay of straight vehicle in north entry, s/ vehicle
Considering the traffic survey error and inherent running randomness, the
parameter indicators error is reasonable within 5%.
FOR PARAMETER SELECTION AND RANGE
In this paper, we select Wiedemann’s 74 model for calibration, in which there are
7 key parameters of intersection delay for the complexity and various disturbances of
the intersection traffic composition including look ahead distance (LA_DIS),
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1423
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observed vehicles (OB_VEH), minimum headway (MIN_HW), maximum

deceleration (MAX_DEC), average standstill distance (AX), additive part of desired
safety distance (BX_ADD), and multiple part of desired safety distance (BX_M ULT).
Defaults and ranges of parameters are summarized in Table 1.
Table 1. Defaults and ranges of parameters.
Parameter
VISSIM Calibration Step
Name Parameter Description
Default Range Value
(ABBS)
LA_DIS look ahead distance (m) 250 200 -
OB_VEH Observed vehicles (vehicle) 2 1~5 1
MIN_HW minimum headway (m) 0.5 0.5~2.5 0.5

MAX_DEC maximum deceleration (m/s2) -4.0 -6.0 -

AX Average standstill distance (m) 2.0 1.0~3.0 0.5
Additive part of desired safety distance
BX_ADD 2.0 1.0~3.0 0.5
(m)
Multiplic part of desired safety distance
BX_M ULT 3.0 2.0~4.0 0.5
( m)
SIMULATION ORTHOGONAL DESIGN AND PARAMETER DETERMINATION
SIMULATION ORTHOGONAL DESIGN
To set the indicators in this paper we identified the objective function in which
the relative differences are minimal between the average delay indicators, and the
actual measurement. In addition to this we selected the average delay of the entries
as the indicators for the investigation.
To pick factors which where the five parameters to be calibrated: OB_VEH,
MIN_HW, AX, BX_ADD, BX_M ULT. To select the levels, which are the
corresponding ranges of each parameter Factors and levels are listed the following
Table 2.
Table 2. Factors and levels of parameters.
Factor
Level A B C D E
OB_VEH MIN_HW AX BX_ADD BX_M ULT
1 1 0.5 1.0 1.0 2.0
2 2 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.5
3 3 1.5 2.0 2.0 3.0
4 4 2.0 2.5 2.5 3.5
5 5 2.5 3.0 3.0 4.0
Choose orthogonal table, the five factors and five levels experiment, choose the
five-level orthogonal table L25(56), as Table 3.
Table 3. The five-level orthogonal table L25(56).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1424
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Column No.
Test No.
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 2 2 2 2 2
3 1 3 3 3 3 3
4 1 4 4 4 4 4
5 1 5 5 5 5 5
6 2 1 2 3 4 5
7 2 2 3 4 5 1
8 2 3 4 5 1 2
9 2 4 5 1 2 3
10 2 5 1 2 3 4
11 3 1 3 5 2 4
12 3 2 4 1 3 5
13 3 3 5 2 4 1
14 3 4 1 3 5 2
15 3 5 2 4 1 3
16 4 1 4 2 5 3
17 4 2 5 3 1 4
18 4 3 1 4 2 5
19 4 4 2 5 3 1
20 4 5 3 1 4 2
21 5 1 5 4 3 2
22 5 2 1 5 4 3
23 5 3 2 1 5 4
Experiment programs are listed in the table (Table 4), then do VISSIM
simulation.
RANGE ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE THE PARAMETER TO BE USED IN
RANGE CALCULATION
According to the ordered experiment programs, starting from the experimental
data, and using the orthogonal table to analyze the experiment results. For example:
analysis of factors A, for the column to analyze, A is in the first column.
1. Packet. Take the programs which contained factor A and level "1", "2", "3",
"4", "5" as a group, then each testing program is divided into five groups;
2. Calculations add the dates of each test together: the sum of the five test data
corresponding to the level "1" in first column is recorded as: I to add the data
obtained from the second set of test together: the sum of all the test data
corresponding to the level “2” of factor A, recorded as: II, similarly, III, IV, V.
3. Analysis. Be I as, in the five tests, only the level “1”of A1appeares five times,
while the levels of factor B, C, D, E occur once, the data and reflect level "1"
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1425
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of factor A is affected five times , and level "1", "2", "3", "4", "5" of each
factor B, C, D, E each time, similarly, I, II, III, IV. Calculate each factor’s I,
II, III, IV, V of which the numerical differences in each column reflect the
impact on indicators caused by different level selection.
4. For range. After finishing Calculating I, II, III, IV, and V of each column.
We make the D-value of maximum and minimum as “range”, recorded as R,
which reflects the impact on indicators caused by different level selection in
each column.
Table 4. Experiment programs L25(56).
Column No.
Test No. A B C D E
6
OB_VEH MIN_HW AX BX_ADD BX_M ULT
1 1 0.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 1
2 1 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.5 2
3 1 1.5 2.0 2.0 3.0 3
4 1 2.0 2.5 2.5 3.5 4
5 1 2.5 3.0 3.0 4.0 5
6 2 0.5 1.5 2.0 3.5 5
7 2 1.0 2.0 2.5 4.0 1
8 2 1.5 2.5 3.0 2.0 2
9 2 2.0 3.0 1.0 2.5 3
10 2 2.5 1.0 1.5 3.0 4
11 3 0.5 2.0 3.0 2.5 4
12 3 1.0 2.5 1.0 3.0 5
13 3 1.5 3.0 1.5 3.5 1
14 3 2.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 2
15 3 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.0 3
16 4 0.5 2.5 1.5 4.0 3
17 4 1.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 4
18 4 1.5 1.0 2.5 2.5 5
19 4 2.0 1.5 3.0 3.0 1
20 4 2.5 2.0 1.0 3.5 2
21 5 0.5 3.0 2.5 3.0 2
22 5 1.0 1.0 3.0 3.5 3
23 5 1.5 1.5 1.0 4.0 4
24 5 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 5
25 5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.5 1

CHOOSING AN OPTIMUM EXPERIMENT CONDITIONS

1. The primary and secondary of influence on indicators by factors: Range R,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1426
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reflecting the change in the level of each factor. Suppose the level changes
of factor B, D, E, and C cause indicators a big fluctuation, while in factor A,
a small change is seen. Then, prioritize the factors in order according to the
value of range. (Figure 1),
Primary to secondary
B ；D ；E ；C ；A
Figure 1. The factors prioritized.

2. The optimum level of each factor: the level selection is related to the
required indicators. In the required indicators the bigger the better, the
level which increasing the indicators should be taken, namely, the largest
level of the factors I, II, III, IV, V, conversely, if the required indicators the
smaller the better, then take the smallest.
3. Optimum experiment conditions: If the fluctuation of indicators not affected
by other factors level fluctuation when the selected levels fluctuate, then the
simple combination of the better levels is the optimum test conditions. In
fact, to select an optimum test conditions, the primary and secondary among
the factors should be considered to meet the practical requirements. For
primary factors, level selection must be consistent with the indicator
requirements, namely, choosing the better level from the calculating results.
In addition to this secondary factors are based on the requirements of other
aspects.
Through the simulation experiment program run, we got the corresponding
simulation results, and then calculated I, II, IV, V, and R. For the range analysis to
determine the optimum experiment program. Inspect the Parameter error indicator
which is less than 5%, so, we can make further determination of parameters to be
used.
CONCLUSION
In this paper, parameter calibration of VISSIM Simulation Model based on the
orthogonal experiment has been systematically studied, putting forward the
calibration steps and process to determine the calibration target for intersections in
the VISSIM simulation model. On this basis, we carried out parameter selection and
ranges determination, simulation orthogonal design, and range analysis to determine
the parameters to be used for parameter validation. This method was applied to the
VISSIM model including vehicles, non-motor vehicles, pedestrians in Zhongshan
roadways, and Jianshe Street in Shijiazhuang. The method proved that it could
simulate more realistically intersection operations with complex traffic conditions,
and to reduce the number of simulation experiments and greatly improve work
efficiency.
REFERENCES
Gomes, G. (2004). “A microsimulation model of a congested freeway using VISSIM
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1427
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[CD].” TRB AM, 2004. CDROM.

Lei Y., Li, X., and Zhuo, W. (2004-2005). “A genetic algorithm-based approach to
the calibration of VISSIM using gps data[C].” 8th AATTE Conference
Proceeding, 2004-2005.
Park, B., Won, J., and Yun, I. (2006). “Application of microscopic simulation model
calibration and validation procedure: case study of coordinated actuated
signal system[J].” Traffic Signal Systems and Regional Systems
Management, Transportation Research Record, 2006, 1978.
Park, B. (2003). “Microscopic simulation model calibration and validation: a case
study of VISSIM for a coordinated actuated signal system [CD].”: TRB AM,
2003. CDROM.
Sun, J., Yang, X., and Liu, H. (2007). “Study on Microscopic traffic simulation
model systematic parameter calibration [J].” Journal of System Simulation,
2007. 19(1)：48-50.
Yang, H., Han, S., and Chen, X. (2006). “Parameter calibration and application for
the Vissim simulation model [J].” Urban transportation of China, 2006. 11
(4):22-25.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1428
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An Empirical Study on the Arrangement of Truck Ownership in Trucking

Enterprises

Honglei GE1
1
Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, Postcode 315100, No.1,
Xuefu Road, Ningbo, Zhejiang, PRC; PH (086) 0135-67481772; FAX (086)
0574-88130015; email: gehonglei33@126.com

ABSTRACT
It is important for trucking enterprises to arrange truck ownership properly,
which may belong to trucking enterprises or drivers. The aim of different
arrangements of truck ownership is to reduce the risk of hold-up and moral
hazard problems, and then save transaction costs. The attributes of truck and drivers’
behavior influence these arrangements based on surveys and statistical analysis.
When there is high specificity of driver and truck or asymmetric information in
transportation coordination and transportation quality or little asymmetric
information in drivers’ driving and maintenance behavior, truck enterprises tend to
own trucks themselves. Otherwise the ownership of each truck by its driver is better.

INTRODUCTION
The reform of State-owned trucking enterprises in China has experienced
several stages, including truck accounting, truck responsibility system, turning
profits into taxes, truck contracting, truck mortgage contracting, truck leasing and
truck transferring. In each stage the ownership of a truck was redefined. A truck is a
basic production factor in trucking enterprises, so the arrangement of its ownership is
vital for the success and effectiveness of enterprise reform.
The ownership of a truck is a bundle of rights based on the vehicle to decide
how to use the truck and get return. The truck ownership may belong to trucking
enterprises or drivers (Lafontaine et al., 2002). When trucking enterprises have truck
ownership, they employ drivers through an employment contract. In this case,
trucking enterprises assign a truck to a driver and are responsible for vehicle
maintenance and fuel costs. In addition, cargo organization, vehicle deployment,
loading, unloading and other transportation coordination activities are all enterprises’
responsibility. Enterprise drivers are only responsible for driving activities and some
of the routine maintenance of vehicles. Drivers are usually paid by the number of
kilometers they drive based on an employment contract. When drivers own a truck,
most of these operators are self-employed drivers with just one vehicle. So they are
called owner-operators. Trucking enterprises and owner-operators sign subcontracts
of transportation service. Trucking enterprises are still responsible for production
activities related to transportation, but owner-operators instead of trucking
enterprises are responsible for vehicle driving, maintenance, repairs and fuel costs.
Owner-operators get their income based on the subcontract. We will try to explain
how trucking enterprises arrange truck ownership.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 studies the factors that
influence truck ownership arrangements and then establish a conceptual model with
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1429
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hypotheses. Section 3 shows empirical evidence supporting our model and proving
the hypotheses. Some conclusions and extensions are sketched in section 4.
A MODEL OF TRUCK OWNERSHIP ARRANGEMENT
Influence factors
When contracting the use of vehicles and drivers, trucking enterprises are driven
by hold-up and moral hazard problems (Alberto et al., 1998). Trucking enterprises
employ company drivers or contract with owner-operators in order to save
transaction costs (Nickerson et al., 2003).
1) Hold-up problem
In trucking industry, different hold-up problems are caused by specific capital
assets of a physical or human nature (Alberto et al., 1998).
Trucks’ specificity (TS)
Firstly, Hubbard (1999) discovered that the main hold-up problem arises when
using specialized vehicles (e.g., refrigerated trucks, car carriers, log carriers or
similarly special-purpose vehicles). Secondly, fuel efficiency of a truck to a large
extent depends on the coordination between automotive design structure and
characteristics of different transport services. Operating costs advantages arise for
configurations when properly matched with freight and distance, but incur large cost
disadvantages if used non-optimally, so special designed trucks are specific
(Nickerson et al., 2003). Thirdly, vehicles can be painted and lettered with the colors
and logotype of either a trucking firm or a shipper, so they are specific to trucking
enterprises or shippers (Alberto et al., 1998). Specific trucks may bring “appropriable
quasi-rent”. To avoid hold-up problems caused by trucks’ specificity, trucking
enterprises tend to own these trucks themselves and employ drivers at the same time.
Drivers’ specificity (DS)
It is generally believed that technology and knowledge related to drive and
cargo handling are not specific (Lafontaine et al., 2002), (Smith, 2001).There are
specific drivers in trucking industry, although it is difficult to evaluate their
importance (Alberto et al., 1998). Drivers acquire specialized training and
accumulate information about the routes, the specific characteristics of the customers
and the vehicle, the service contents, and the communication system used in trucking
enterprises. These intangible assets and knowledge are very valuable and wholly
specific. When drivers are specific, trucking enterprises tend to employ drivers as
their membership to solve all kinds of coordination and contractual problems.
2) Moral hazard problem
Trucking activities are mobile and dispersed and do not directly produce
material products, so it is difficult to monitor and measure them (Hubbard, 2000,
2001). The asymmetric information in trucking activities leads to universal moral
hazard problems.
Asymmetric information in driving and maintenance behavior (AI-DMB)
By its very nature, the work of transportation takes drivers a large distance at all
times of day, making it difficult for shippers or carriers to assess their driving
behavior—speed, accident prevention, treatment of the truck, and so forth (Nickerson
et al., 2003). Motivating company drivers to drive in an optimal fashion is more
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1430
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difficult because performance incentives are less efficient (Baker et al., 2000). Asset
ownership can motivate drivers to drive well. Owner-operators are residual claimants
on the value of their trucks and internalize most of the costs associated with how they
drive. Therefore, trucking enterprises can contract with the owner-operators to
overcome moral hazard problems in driving and maintenance behavior.
Asymmetric information in transportation coordination (AI-TC)
The principal activity of trucking is to coordinate a large number of
heterogeneous transactions (Lafontaine et al., 2002). Hauls vary in their desirability
to drivers. Those into congested or dangerous areas or involving layovers or empty
miles are less desirable than those that do not (Baker et al., 2000). So it is important
for carriers to negotiate with drivers to induce them to accept undesirable hauls. It is
usually easier to negotiate with enterprise drivers than owner-operators.
Asymmetric information in transportation quality (AI-TQ)
Trucking service quality is related to timely delivery, low cargo damage and
high professional and ethical standards when facing customers, which is difficult to
monitor. One poor service may tarnish carriers’ reputation and cause other damage
(Nickerson et al., 2003). In this case, trucking enterprises tend to use enterprise
drivers instead of owner-operators, because they may be more likely to have a sense
of responsibility and honor.
Model
Through the analysis above, a conceptual model on the arrangement of truck
ownership can be established, as shown in Figure 1. There are two types of
independent variables in the model, including Asset Specificity (Truck’s Specificity
and Driver’s Specificity) and Asymmetric Information in Drivers’ Behavior
(Asymmetric Information in Driving and Maintenance Behavior, Transportation
Coordination and Transportation Quality). Truck Ownership Arrangement is the
dependent variable.

Asset Specificity:
●Truck’s Specificity (TS)
Truck Property Arrangement
●Driver’s Specificity(DS)
▲ Trucking Company
Owning Truck
Asymmetric Information in Drivers’ Behavior:
▲Driver Owning Truck
● Asymmetric Information in Driving and
Maintenance Behavior(AI-DMB)
●Asymmetric Information in Transportation
Coordination (AI-TC)
●Asymmetric Information in Transportation
Quality(AI-TQ)

Figure 1. Conceptual Model on the Arrangement of Truck Ownership.

According to this model, we can make the following assumptions.
Hypothesis 1: When trucks are highly specific, trucking enterprises tend to own
trucks themselves.
Hypothesis 2: When drivers are highly specific, trucking enterprises tend to own
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1431
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trucks themselves and hire drivers.

Hypothesis 3: When there is much asymmetric information in drivers’ driving
and maintenance behavior, trucking enterprises tend to contract with
owner-operators.
Hypothesis 4: When there is much asymmetric information in transportation
Coordination, trucking enterprises tend to own trucks themselves and hire drivers.
Hypothesis 5: When there is much asymmetric information in transportation
quality, trucking enterprises tend to own trucks themselves and hire drivers.
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
Data source
To get enough data for the model and ensure the data reliability, two sources are
used, that is the vehicle registration department and trucking enterprises. We
randomly select 100 samples of trucking enterprises from vehicle the registration
department, but only a few have detailed information about truck’s specificity and
driver’s behavior. So we finally select 30 samples from the data. And it is necessary
to get more data from trucking enterprises by questionnaire survey.
The questionnaire designed to get data from trucking enterprises has two parts.
The first part get the basic information of surveyed trucking enterprises, including
company name, ownership, size, services and so on to select the valid questionnaires
filled out. Questions in the second part measure the independent and dependent
variables in the model. Truck Ownership Arrangement is expressed as a ratio of the
number of company-owned trucks to the total number of company-used trucks. Asset
Specificity and Asymmetric Information in Drivers’ Behavior are measured with
five-point Likert Scales.
To ensure that all questions in the questionnaire can be understood properly, we
interviewed 18 top managers in trucking enterprises and modified most questions.
More than two thirds of all questionnaires are filled out with our guide to get more
valid samples. In this survey, a total of 150 questionnaires were issued, 136 were
recovered, of which 120 were valid.
Data analysis
All data of 150 trucking enterprises are analyzed by SPSS V16.0. To prove the
five hypotheses proposed above, descriptive statistical analysis, factor analysis and
regression analysis are used sequentially.
1) Descriptive statistical analysis
Statistical results of the ratio of company-owned trucks to total company-used
trucks are shown in Table 1. From the attributes of the ratio, with mean 0.5765,
standard deviation 0.27217, maximum 1.00, minimum 0.00, we may conclude that
the distribution of Truck Ownership Arrangement is relatively dispersed.
Table 1. Ratio of company-owned trucks to total company-used trucks.
N Valid 150
Missing 0
Mean .5765
Std. Error of Mean .02485
Std. Deviation .27217
Variance .07408
Range 1.00
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1432
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Minimum .00
Maximum 1.00
2) Factor analysis
We dug out potential factors as the independent variables used in regression
analysis from original sample data through factor analysis. KMO and Bartlett's Test
show that the group of data is very suitable for factor analysis, as shown in Table 2.
Table 2. KMO and Bartlett's Test.
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .807
Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square 991.123
df 171
Sig. .000

Five factors are found through factor analysis, which are consistent with and
named as the independent variables in the model, as shown in Table 3.
Table 3. Factor analysis and internal consistency reliability test.
Factors Original Components Rotated Component Matrix
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 αa
F1 AI in special conditions .811
AI-DMB AI in routine maintenance .760
AI in fuel usage .744 .7391
AI in driving .727
F2 Competition of similar trucking .779
TS enterprises
Poor transportation spot market .771
Truck suitable for different .732
goods .8021
Heavy vehicle load .650
Cost of painted colors and .631
logotype in vehicle
Long transportation distance .541
F3 Complex external conditions in .794
DS transportation
Expertise and professional .757
knowledge training
Complexity of transportation .731 .8739
process
Business requirements for high .688
driving skills
Complexity of customer service .560
F4 AI in punctual transportation .856
AI-TQ AI in drivers’ customer service .846
skills and attitudes
AI in transportation safety .845 .8945
F5 AI in transportation .936
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1433
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AI-TC coordination
Total variance explained 65.80％
a:Internal consistency reliability

All indexes such as total variance explained, rotated component matrix, internal
consistency reliability and so on show that the factor analysis has good results.
3) Regression analysis
Results from the output of stepwise regression analysis are arranged in Table 4.
From the values of indexes in Table 4, such as R-square, F, Significance F and
Significance t, we can conclude that the overall regression results are significant.
Table 4. Output of stepwise regression analysisa.
Dependent Variable: Ratio of company-owned trucks to total
company-used trucks
Predictors: (Constant), DS, AI-DMB, TS, AI-TC, AI-TQ
R Square= 0.648
F＝42.008
Significance F= 0.000
Model Unstandardized Standardized t Sig.
Coefficients Coefficients
(constant) 0.576 38.290 0.000
DS 0.176 0.646 11.625 0.000
AI-DMB -0.109 -0.400 -7.201 0.000
TS 0.053 0.195 3.511 0.001
AI-TC 0.036 0.133 2.401 0.018
AI-TQ 0.034 0.123 2.223 0.028
a: From three tables, that is Model Summary, ANOVA and Coefficients.

Based on the coefficients in Table 4, the regression equation can be expressed as

follows.
Ratio of company-owned trucks to total company-used trucks
=0.576＋0.176 DS－0.109 AI-DMB＋0.053 TS＋0.036 AI-TC
＋0.034 AI-TQ (1)
And the standardized regression equation can be expressed as follows.
Ratio of company-owned trucks to total company-used trucks
=0.646 DS－0.400 AI-DMB＋0.195 TS＋0.133 AI-TC＋0.123 AI-TQ (2)
As shown in equations (1) and (2), five independent variables, Driver’s
Specificity (DS), Asymmetric Information in Driving and Maintenance Behavior
(AI-DMB), Truck’s Specificity (TS), Asymmetric Information in Transportation
Coordination (AI-TC) and Asymmetric Information in Transportation Quality
(AI-TQ), entered the regression model sequentially, which shows that their effect on
truck ownership arrangement is significant and diminishes in turn. Only the
regression coefficient of Asymmetric Information in Driving and Maintenance
Behavior (AI-DMB) is negative, indicating that much asymmetric information in
drivers’ driving and maintenance behavior lead to trucking enterprises’ contracting
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1434
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with owner-operators. So Hypothesis 3 is proved. While the regression coefficients

of the other four variables are all positive, indicating that high values of these
variables lead to trucking enterprises’ owning truck themselves. So Hypothesis 1, 2,
4 and 5 are proved.
CONCLUSION
We have established a conceptual model to study how trucking enterprises
contract the use of trucks and drivers, investigating the effect of hold-up and moral
hazard problems on the arrangement of truck ownership. We have tested our
hypotheses through an empirical study in China. We proved that the aim of different
arrangement of trucks’ ownership is to reduce the risk of hold-up and moral hazard
problems, and then save transaction costs. Five factors, Driver’s Specificity,
Asymmetric Information in Driving and Maintenance Behavior, Truck’s Specificity,
Asymmetric Information in Transportation Coordination and Asymmetric
Information in Transportation Quality influence on truck ownership arrangement
significantly.
Information technologies such as GPS, RFID, trip recorder, etc make it easier
for trucking enterprises to monitor drivers’ driving, production and service activities,
so asymmetric information in drivers’ behavior may be reduced substantially. With
the extensive application of information technology in the trucking industry, the
arrangement of truck ownership may experience a corresponding change. The effect
of information technologies on the arrangement of truck ownership may be studied in
the future.

REFERENCES
Alberto, F., Benito, A., and Manuel, G. (1998). “Quasi-integration in the truckload
trucking industry.” Second Annual Conference of the International Society
for New Institutional Economics, Paris, September 17-19.
Baker, G. P., and Hubbard, T. N. (2000). “Contractibility and asset ownership:
on-board computers and governance in U.S. trucking.” Harvard NOM
Research Paper, No. 00-02.
Hubbard, T. N. (1999). “How wide is the scope of hold-up-based theories of
governance? Shipper-carrier relations in trucking.” Mimeo, UCLA.
Hubbard, T. N. (2000). “The use of on-board information technology in the trucking
industry.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115 (2), 533–561.
Hubbard, T. N. (2001). “Contractual form and market thickness in trucking.” RAND
Journal of Economics, 32(2)2, 369-386.
Lafontaine, F., and Masten, S. E. (2002). “Contracting in the absence of specific
investments and moral hazard: understanding carrier-driver relations in US
trucking.” NBER Working paper.
Nickerson, J. A., and Silverman, B. S. (2003). “Why aren’t all truck drivers
owner-operators? Asset ownership and the employment relation in interstate
for-hire trucking.” Journal of Economics & Management Strategy,
12(1),91–118.
Smith, B. R. (2001). “Contractual governance in trucking: Maislin V. Primary Steel
and the undercharge crisis”, the American Economist.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1435
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Traffic Volume Forecasting Under Snow Disasters in the Heilongjiang Freeway

System

Xiaodong ZANG1 and Xing ZHANG2

1
School of Civil Engineering, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, Guangdong
Province, China; email: zxdzxdzxd69@yahoo.com.cn
2
Department of Construction and Management, Heilongjiang Navigation Fairs
Management Bureau, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China; email:
0451zhangxin@163.com

ABSTRACT
In winters, many freeways in Heilongjiang province are affected by snow.
Under snow disaster circumstances, many freeways have to be closed down.
Under these circumstances, determining how to forecast the traffic volume on
highway segments and establish a management strategy is very important. After a
lot of field data surveys and data collection, we can forecast the traffic generation
volume of freeway junctions based on the Grey Model, and set up a new
highway-impedance model under the snow disaster. This is based on statistic and
theoretic methods, then distribution of the traffic volume to every highway segment
according to dynamic traffic distribution model. Then forecasting the traffic volume
on highway segments affected by the snow disaster can be accomplished. This
research will provide a theoretical basis for the control and management of the
freeway system under snow disaster circumstances in snow affected areas.

INTRUDUCTION
The freeways are important traffic facilities; however, they can be destroyed
by a snow disaster in winter in the north part of China, especially, in Heilongjiang
province. The snow disasters often cause the freeway network to break down,
causing adverse affects on the efficiency of the freeway system. The government
has spent lots of money and material resources to decrease the damage of the snow
disasters, and has seen significant achievements. But this is not enough, in the
modern information society, how to forecast the traffic volume in highway segments
under snow disasters and to make a feasible management strategy before the snow
disasters happened may become more important. So this paper will cover the
research on how to forecast the traffic volume in the freeway segments under snow
disaster in Heilongjiang province, not to forecast when the snow disaster will
happen.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1436
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THE TRAFFIC VOLUME FORECASTING OF THE FREEWAY NET BASED

ON GREY MODEL
Theory of the Grey Model
To build Grey Model we need to set up a differential model that is an approximate
continuum equation based on discrete data of time sequence. During this process,
the accumulative operation is a base measure, and the function built is the base of
making model and forecasting.
Hypothesizing X (0) (k ) is the data that depicts the past circumstance, we can
get time sequence data X (1) (k ) by accumulating operation, then calculating the
derivatives, such as:

dx (1) (k )
 ax (1) (k )  U . （1）
dk
Then we can get a growth function, and build models, and we can calculate the
forecasting value, that is to simulate X (1) (k ) as a one rank derivative equation, just
as：
dx (1) (k )
 ax (1) (k )   .
d (k )

（2）
Then calculating the function
u u
xˆ (1) (k  1)  ( x ( 0) (1)  )  e  ak  . （3）
a a
After that, calculating the derivative of equation (3), we can get
u
xˆ ( 0) (k  1)  ( a)( x ( 0) (1)  )e  ak . （4）
a
The forecasting of traffic volume based on Ha-tong freeway data
According to the Grey Model theory, after data collection on the Ha-tong freeway,
we can forecast the traffic volume at the highway segments as follows:
First: Giving the initialization data, such as
x ( 0) (1), x ( 0 ) (2)..........x ( 0) ( N ) （5）
( 0) (1)
Second: Accumulating X (k ) to get a new model X (k ) , such as
i
x (1)   x ( 0 ) (m) i  1,2,3,.........N （6）
m 1
Third: building two new matrixes, B and Yn , such as
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 1 (1) 
  2 [ x (1)  x (2)]
(1)
1
 1 
B    2 [ x (2)  x (2)] 1
(1) (1)
（7）
 
 ........ .
 [ x (1) (n  1)  x (1) (n)]
1
1
 2 
Yn  [ x ( 0 ) (2), x ( 0) (3),.......x ( 0 ) ( N )]T . （8）
Forth: calculating parameters a and  , and constructing a new vector, such
as：
 
A  （9）
 
According to the least bi-multiplication method, we can get
A  ( B T  B ) 1  B T Yn (10)
Fifth: getting Grey Mode, such as：
 ak 
xˆ (1) (k  1)  [ x ( 0 ) (1)  ]e  （11）
 
Sixth: calculating the derivative of (11), we can get
u
xˆ ( 0) (k  1)  (a)( x ( 0 ) (1)  )e  ak . （12）
a
Seventh: testing the precision of the Grey Model.
The remain error is

 ( 0) (i )  x ( 0) (i)  x ( 0) (i) . （13）
The relative error is
 ( 0 ) (i )
e(t )  ( 0 ) （14）
x (i )
1 N
 ( 0)    ( 0) (i) （15）
N i 1
Where  ( 0) (i ) is the absolute error of traffic volume forecasted in no. i year。
Eighth：if the testing result is not acceptable, we can build remaining error GM
model.
Ninth: if the precision of the GM model is acceptable, then we can use this
model to forecast the future traffic volume.
THE FORECASTING OF THE TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION
Generally, traffic distribution can be got by extensive OD investigation, but for
freeways, we can get OD matrix by a converse process. That is we can calculate the
OD matrix according to the segment traffic volume in freeway.
For one junction in the freeway system, there are two parameters, traffic
generation volume Ai , and traffic attracting volume Bi . We can get the equation,
such as follows:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1438
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n
Ai  Bi   ( RX ij  RX ji ) . （16）
j 1

Where RX ij the actual traffic volume in freeway is segments from i to j ;

n is the quantity of node connecting with code i ;
The other signs are the same as above.
If the traffic volume of any segment in freeways is observed, then
n n

 (RX ij  RX ji ) is known, hypothesis: Di   (RX ij  RX ji ) , then：

j 1 j 1

B j  A j  D j （17）
According to gravity model of traffic distribution, we can get
B j  Rij
Tij  Ai N (18)
 B j  Rij j 1

Where Ai , B j is the traffic generation volume and traffic attracting volume of no.
i junction, and no. j junction respectively.
Rij is the impedance factor from i to j junction.
N is the quantity of attractive node.
Tij is the exchange volume between i and j junction.
Then inputting (17) to (18), we can get
( A j  D j )  Rij
Tij  Ai  n (19)
 ( A j  D j )  Rij
j 1

If there are more than two routes between i and j , we can hypothesize the
probability of segment being used is PijMN , then the traffic volume of segment MN
is:
N N
X MN   Tij  PijMN
i 1 j 1
N N ( A j   D j )  R ij
=   [ Ai  N
 PijMN ] . （20）
i 1 j 1
 (A
j 1
j   D )  R ij

Where X MN is the traffic volume of segment MN .

In order to insure the precision of this model, we must make the value
calculated be closed to the actual value, so we set up a precision aim, such as
L
Min  ( X MN  RX MN ) 2 . （21）
MN 1
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1439
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Where L is the quantity of segment in the freeway system.

So as to calculate the OD, we can use iterative method to do so. The steps are
as follows:
Step1: input initial value to Ai( 0 ) ( i =1, 2,…N);
Step2；calculating the Tij( N ) according to equation (22):

( N 1)
( A (j N 1)  D j ) Rij
T (N)
ij A i N
（22）
(A
j 1
( N 1)
j  D j ) Rij

Step3: distributing the traffic volume to freeway system to get the segment
traffic volume X MN 。
Step4: compare traffic volume calculated with actual volume, if the compared
results satisfy equation (23), then stopping the iterative process, or going to next
process.
N
Max{ X MN  RX MN }   （23）
Where  is the aim of precision。

Step5: revising the value of Ai( N ) , just as(24);

n n
Ai( N )  Ai( N 1)  a ( RX ij   X ij( N 1) ) （24）
j 1 j 1

Then going to step2, and going on operation.

When the iterative results accord with the equation (23), then stop calculating,
and Ai is the traffic generation volume, and Tij is the OD we need。
THE TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT UNDER SNOW DISASTER
The freeway impedance model
The freeway impedance model is the key parameter of traffic assignment.
The freeway impedance model includes regressive model, such as (25), the three
parameters model, such as (26), and the V/C model, such as (27).
t  t 0 [1  k1 (V1 / C1 ) k2  k 3 (V2 / C 2 ) k4 ] （25）
Where t is the driving time, min;
t 0 is the driving time during traffic volume equal to zero, min;
V1、V2 is the segment traffic volume, veh/h;
C1、C 2 is the actual capacity of freeway, pcu/h;
k1、k 2、k 3、k 4 is the regressive factors.
1
t ij  l ij /（ U 0  (U 0 / 2) 2  Qij U 0 / K m） （26）
2

Where t ij is the driving time in segment from i to j , min.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1440
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lij is the length of segment from i to, j , m.

U 0 is the speed when traffic volume tends to zero, km/h;
K m is the traffic flow density when segment jams, veh/km.

t  t 0 [1  a (V / C )  ] （27）
Where t is the driving time in the freeway segments, min;
t 0 is the driving time during traffic volume equals to zero, min;
C1、C 2 is the actual capacity of freeway, pcu/h;
a、 is parameter.
However in snow disaster circumstance, the freeway impedance model will be
different from those above, because the friction coefficient will affect the driving
time deeply. Than any other factors, even the friction coefficient becomes the
dominant factor.
Generally, the headway between front vehicle and rear vehicle is as follows:
V2
S  vt  d L
254
(28)
Where t is the reactive time of drivers, s;
v is the speed of rear vehicle , m/s;
V is the speed of rear vehicle, km/h;
 is the friction coefficient;
d is the safety distance between the front vehicle and the rear vehicle
when vehicles stop, m;
L is the mean vehicle lengths, m.
Then we can calculate the value of speed, such as:

v  96.04(t ) 2  19.6(d  L  S )  9.8(t） . (29)

Then the freeway impedance model under snow disaster is

]  [1  a (V / C )  ] . (30)
t ij  lij /[ 96.04(t ) 2  19.6(d  L  S )  9.8(t）

The dynamic multi-route traffic assignment model

Under snow disaster circumstance, some segments may be closed down;
drivers generally select the shortest route to go to a destination. However the
capacity of freeways under snow disaster will decrease, with a increasing of traffic
volume, the level of service will decrease rapidly. Even the shortest route will jam;
the impedance of the shortest route will be the biggest. Then some drivers will
select other routes. So we select the dynamic multi-route traffic assignment model to
make traffic assignments.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1441
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THE APPLICATION OF THE METHOD

In order to test the precision of the method, we select the data of Ha-tong
freeway to do this; first we survey the traffic volume at every segment in winter.
Then we used the OD calculating model to forecast the OD between every junction,
after that we did surveys of the road friction coefficient under snow circumstance,
then made traffic assignment. At last, to test the precision of the method by
comparing the forecasting data with the actual data, the error was less than 10%.
CONCLUSION
Under snow disaster circumstance, efficiency of the freeways will decrease
rapidly. Some segments shall be closed down, determining how to lead the traffic
flow and how to make preventive strategy is very important. This paper built a series
of methods to forecast the traffic volume on highway segments under snow disasters,
and provided a feasible theoretic method for the traffic management strategy under
snow disaster circumstance in winter in the north of China. The precision of the
method is validated according to the data of the Ha-tong freeway, but large-scale
data survey and data validation are not completed yet, we continue researching.
REFERENCES
Chen, A., Jayakrishnan, R., and Wei, K. (2002). “Faster frank-wolfe traffic
assignment with new flow update scheme.” Transportation Engineering,
2002. 128(1):31～39.
Chen, H. R., and Jia, G. J. (1993). “The applied model of calculating OD matrix.”
North-East Highway, 1993. (3):13～19.
Janson, B. (1991). “Dynamic traffic assignment for urban networks.” Transportation
Research, 1991. 25(B):143～161.
Janson, Bruce N. (1995). “Network design effects of dynamic traffic assignment.”
Transportation Engineering, 1995. 121(1):1～13.
Ran, B., Lee, D.H., Shin, M.S. (2002). “Dynamic traffic assignment with rolling
horizon implementation.” Transportation Engineering, 2002.
128(4):314～322.
Van, H.T., and Zuylen, L.G.. Willumsen. (1980). “The most likely trip matrix
estimated from traffic counts.” Transportation Research, 1980.
14(B):281～293.
Yang, H., Lida, Y., and Sasaki, T. (1991). “Analysis of the reliability of an
origin-destination trip matrix estimated from traffic counts.”
Transportation Research, 1991. 25(B):351～363.
Zhang, X. T., and Luo, X. H. (2001). “The application of grey theory and model in
traffic volume forecasting.” Highway, 2001. (8): 4～7.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1442
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Infinity-case Based on Train Carried ATP Testing System

Yufeng GUO1, Yongqiang ZHANG2 and Zhiqiang ZHANG3

1
School of Civil Engineering, Changchun Institute of Technology, master, 130012,
Changchun, Hongqi Street 2494, PH(86) 431-85711590; email: ccgcxygyf@163.com
2
School of Civil Engineering, Changchun Institute of Technology, master, 130012,
Changchun, Hongqi Street 2494, PH(86) 431-85711590; email:
zhangetang@163.com
3
Inner Mongolia Highway Engineering Bureau, bachelor, 010051, Huhhot, Hailaer
Street 8, PH(86) 471-6509361; email: zzqzxm1215@163.com

ABSTRACT
The train carried ATP (Automatic Train Protection) system is the main aspect of
the ATC (Automatic Train Control) system. While acquiring MA (Moving Authority)
information from track side ATP, a train carried ATP analyzes and outputs the speed
restriction in real time. When the train speed approaches the speed restriction, ATP
will alarm to the driver when the train is over speed. ATP will then brake the train in
an emergency. ATP pl ays such a vital role that it must be fully tested before put into
service. A new testing method based on Infinity-Case Methodology and Virtual
Instrumentation is proposed to meet test requirements under various conditions.
Simulation and field tests imply that the test system is efficient, easy to use and can
meet all the test requirements.

INTRODUCTION
The ATP System is the hardcore component of a Rail Signaling System, which
serves to ensure train safety and enhance the service efficiency. It must be fully
tested before put into service. Thus, it is very important to develop a test method to
ensure that ATP meets the factory test requirements. Traditionally test cases are
selected and implemented manually, but this method is complex, low efficient and
short of test coverage. With the development of the equipment industry, Automatic
Sample Test Methods are proposed. These methods are efficient, but they still lack
of test case coverage, because test cases are so multifarious that it is impossible to
generate manually. A new testing method is proposed to overcome the Automatic
Sample Test deficiency where signals under test and test limits are combined as
input. The minimum test cases are then generated based on Infinity-Case
Methodology (Wei Chen et al., 2007), then tests are implemented case- by-case
automatically.
INFINITY-CASE METHODOLOGY
The Infinity-Case Test system is designed based on two parts: the 1st part is test
case set, which describes the initial state and prospective results. The 2nd one is test
rule set, which describes the UUT (Unit Under Test) range and test function limits.
Test cases can be classified as bool Type U key ,analog type U ana log ,char type
U char and string Type U string Each UUT’s range can be denoted as follows:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1443
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Rkey = {0,1};
Rana log = [0, 2n-1]; Rchar = [0, 255];
Rstring = {x1x2x3…xn+NULL, n<=2n-1};
Where n is computer processor word-length;
Thus,test case CASEi can be denoted as：
Initial values： INI i = {INI key1 ,INI key2 ,INI key3 , INI keyi ,
INI analog1 , INI analog 2 ,INI analog 3 , INI analogk ,
INI char1 , INI char 2 ,INI char 3 , INI charm ,
INI string1 , INI string 2 ,INI string 3 , INI stringn , };
Prospective value： EVi = {EVkey1 ,EVkey2 ,EVkey3 , EVkeyi ,
EVanalog1 , EVanalog 2 ,EVanalog 3 , EVanalogk ,
EVchar1 , EVchar 2 ,EVchar 3 , EVcharm ,
EVstring1 , EVstring 2 ,EVstring 3 , EVstringn ,
}
Test process RES i = F {{U key1 ,U key2 ,U key3 ,U keyi ,
U analog1 , U analog 2 ,U analog 3 ,U analogk ,
U char1 , U char 2 ,U char 3 ,U charm ,
U string1 , U string 2 ,U string 3 ,U stringn ,
}
∩
Tu {U key1 ,U key2 ,U key3 ,U keyi ,
U analog1 , U analog 2 ,U analog 3 ,U analogk ,
U char1 , U char 2 ,U char 3 ,U charm ,
U string1 , U string 2 ,U string 3 ,U stringn ,
}}
∩
T f {F }.
Where Tu is the value range of each UUT; T f is the limit of test function “ F ”
under test, which decides whether function “ F ” and its sub processes can be
processed or not.
If RES i = EVi , function “ F ” pass CASEi .
If u keyi , u ana log i , uchari , u stringi are typical object in various types; tu keyi , tu ana log i ,
tu chari , tu stringi are the object range, the UUT ‘s in fact is U u :
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1444
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 U key 
 
 U ana log 
Uu =  
U
 char 
U 
 string 
where
   
   
 tukey1   tuana log1 
   
( (
U key = ukey1 ukey 2  ukeyj )  tukey 2  , U ana log = uana log1 uana log 2  uana log k )  tuana log 2 
 ..   .. 
 .   . 
 tu   tu 
 keyj   ana log k 
   
   
 tuchar1   tustring1 
 
(
U char = ( uchar1 uchar 2  ucharm )  tuchar 2  , U string = ustring1 ustring 2  ustringn )  tustring 2 
 .
.
  .. 
 .   . 
 tu   tu 
 charm   stringn 
If F1 , F2 ,… Fk are elements in T f , the coefficients of each element are
Ci (i = 0,1,2, k ) ,the function after filtered will be:
k
F f = ∑ C i Fi
i =1

When the UUT values, range, the function F and limits T f are available, and
the minimum test cases can be obtained as shown by Figure 1.
F

Tu Tf

Uu
U Ff RES

Figure 1. Test Cases Generation-Using Infinity-Case Methodology.

TEST SYSTEM DESIGN

System architecture
Test System is composed of Test Signal Simulation module, Signal Acquire &
Test module and Display module.
The Key component of test equipment is PXI-8196, which includes the
Embedded Controller, PXI-6221 Multifunction Data Acquire Card (Zhao, 2003).
Switch Signals and Speed Signals are generated by PXI-6221. Balise and Doppler
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1445
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Telegrams are generated through serial port COM1 and COM2, and the
communication telegrams are generated by Ethernet port. At the same time, the
signals under test are acquired through CAN port. Thus, a closed-loop test
environment is formed. The System Configuration is shown by Figure 2.
Software design
Infinity-Case Methodology is adopted in software design. UUT is classified by
types, while the function limits are provided. The UUT values and their range, and
the functions under test and their limits are imported into the Infinity- Case Processor
and then the minimum test cases are generated. Based on these test cases, tests can be
resumed to output the test result (Pass/Failed). The software processing procedure is
shown by Figure 3.
Swtich Signal Input

PXI-8196 Controller

PXI-6221
Data Acquire Speed Signal
Card
Display Doppler Signal ATP
COM1
Balise Signal
COM2
Communication Telegram
Ethernet
CAN Port

Signal Under Test

Figure 2. System Configuration.

Start

UUT
Range of UUT
Function under Test Data
Function Limits Prepare

Select UUT value

Run
Infinity-Ending
case Machine

Acquire
Output of system
under test

Display Test
Results

Figure 3. Flowchart of software design.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1446
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Software implementation
Test software is developed by virtual environment Lab-view8.5 (Wu, 2004). The
user interface is shown by Figure 4.

Figure 4. Software Interface.

TEST RESULTS ANALYSIS

Test results in discrete ATP mode
In discrete ATP mode, train speed, wheel diameter, balise signal and switch
signal are tested by sample test and the Infinity –Case test in parallel. Test coverage
is shown in Table 1:
Table 1. Test Results in discrete ATP mode.
Speed Wheel Balise Switch
Signal Diameter Signal Signal
Sample Test 45.63% 37.82% 26.54% 52.37%
Infinity-Case Test 98.46% 99.17% 98.96% 100%

Test Results in continual ATP mode

In continual ATP mode, train speed, wheel diameter, communication telegram
and switch signal are tested by sample test and infinity–Case test in parallel. Test
coverage is shown in Table 2:
Table 2. Test Results in continual ATP mode.
Speed Wheel Balise Switch
Signal Diameter Signal Signal
Sample Test 45.63% 37.82% 59.54% 52.37%
Infinity-Case Test 98.46% 99.17% 99.36% 100%

CONCLUSIONS
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1447
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A new train carried ATP test system is proposed. When compared with
traditional test systems, the advantages are as follows:
a) Infinity-Case Methodology is adopted, which saves run time and enhances
the test case coverage.
b) Virtual Instrumentation improves the system exchangeability and
expansibility.
c) Test software is developed by Virtualized environment Lab-view 8.5, where
the user interface is very friendly, easy to use and maintain.
Simulation and field tests imply that the test system is efficient, easy to use and
can meet all the test requirements. With the test system, the Train Carried ATP
system can be tested fully and efficiently, promoting the company's competition.
With the rapid development of the metro industry in crowded cities, it may be
popularized in the near future.

REFERENCES
Zhao, H. (2003). Virtual Instrumentation and system integration. Tsinghua Publish
Press, Beijing.
Wu, J. (2004). Labview visual coding. Beijing University Publish Press, Beijing.
Chen, W., and Xu, X. (2007). “Research on test suite minimization algorithm.”
Computer Science and Technology, Changsha. 43(2):105-109
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1448
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Track Integration Quality Index

Shougang HUANG1, 2, Yongzheng KANG 1,2, Zhichen WANG 1 and Dekuan

ZHAO3

1
School of traffic and transportation, Shijiazhuang Railway Institute, Shijiazhuang,
Hebei, China, Post code 050043; PH (86) 311-87935516; FAX (86) 311-87935516;
email: huangshougang@sina.com
2
Traffic Safety and Control Lab of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China, Post
code 050043; PH and FAX (86) 311-87935516; email: huangshougang@sina.com
3
Shuo-Huang Railway, Suning, Hebei, China, Post code 062350; PH and FAX (86)
13373531333; email: sjzrizhao@sohu.com

ABSTRACT
Due to the running of high-speed trains and heavy haul trains, the track
equipment is damaged more frequently, leading to a threat of running safety.
Therefore, how to evaluate the quality, and improve the maintenance of track
equipment is scientifically becoming an urgent issue to ensure the transport safety,
reliability, and rational allocation of resources. We analyzed the shortage of track by
inspection; locomotive cabs also had portable monitor meter detection installed and
static checking in data processing and utilization. In the full analysis of their
mutually complementary relationship we proposed the track equipment integrated
quality evaluation indicator (Track Integration Quality Index) obtained by giving the
three indicators, quantified three data, different weights through different grades, and
characteristics track testing, then made some recommendations of its calculation
method and application. Considering all the data reflecting track quality, Track
Integration Quality Index is able to overcome the TQI’s one-sidedness and provides
an indicator of equipment quality assessment for secondary lines.

ANALYSIS OF TESTING DATA USING

Analysis of Track Inspection Train Testing Data Use
The track check has two types of methods, dynamic testing and artificial static
checking, both of which are able to reflect the quality status of track equipment.
Moreover, the former has several options including track inspection train testing and
locomotive cab installed portable monitor meter (hereinafter referred to locomotive
cab installed system). At present, in China, Track Quality Index (hereinafter referred
to TQI, calculated from track inspection car testing data) is generally used to evaluate
the quality status of track equipment due to the scientific evaluation results, when
track geometry is comprehensively tested. An ideal TQI value should has a clear
corresponding relationship with track quality status as well as be easily mastered and
used by on-site staff (Zhuang et al., 2008). Using TQI to prepare maintenance plans
proves more focused and targeted, more integrated to improve track quality (Zhang,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1449
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2008). Through the literature review and analysis, the authors found, that, TQI has
some one-sidedness, specifically includes the following aspects.
First, TQI value is derived from statistical analysis of tens of thousands of
kilometers main lines testing information obtained by track inspection train, which is
only for the main lines, but not for non-main lines.
Second, actually, TQI value only evaluates the track geometry status, but does not
reflect the quality status of equipment fully which also includes track failure status,
sleeper, subgrade, rail fastening as well as bridge, tunnel and culvert status. For
example, ballast bed status is closely related to the track geometry deterioration
(Zhang et al.,2007). Therefore, it is sweeping for TQI to evaluate the quality status
of track equipment.
Third, TQI is the standard deviation of a few single track geometry deviations.
For that reason, it cannot accurately evaluate the track irregularity caused by
horizontal and vertical acceleration under the combined effects of track geometry
deviations.
Fourth, the limited value of TQI in quality index evaluation needs further
refinement (Zhang, 2006).
Since the railway line inspection methods are not only track inspecting trains but
also the locomotive cab installed system, artificial static checking and so on. There
a new approach to overcome the TQI’s one-sidedness? The following shows the
summary analysis.
Analysis of the Locomotive Cab Installed Portable Monitor Meter Data Use
Locomotive cab installed system determines the smooth level by horizontal and
vertical acceleration of locomotive vibration because of the irregularity in running
process. The advantages, such as short cycle, strong continuity, and uniform standard
and non-manual factors make the system eliminate the serious. Over-limited a time
with the artificial static checking on site, it has become an important means of
dynamic testing when the railway transport develops constantly toward high-speed
and heavy haul. But it also has the following preambles:
First, tested items are single; it may be rational for the data analysis results as a
reference of present maintenance, but for the comprehensive maintenance
determination the following year, there is certain one-sidedness.
Second, there is a lack of accurate guides for manual reviews. If there were any
acceleration deviation caused by combined effects of multiple track geometry
without deviation, it is difficult to analyze the causes of disease through acceleration,
especially for the front-line staff.
Analysis of the Static Checking Data Use
As the dynamic detection can not test issues beyond track geometry, static
checking, as the most primitive means, remains indispensable, by which lots of
influencing items can be checked comprehensively including rail gauge, track cross
level, superelevation of outer rail as well as rail failure. Effectiveness of bolts
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1450
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tightness, sleeper failure, frost boiling, mud pumping and bed compaction, roadbed
subsidence and external collapse, bridge and tunnel diseases can also be checked.
Because of the low efficiency in data use except for track inspector and flaw
detector; some railway construction sections establish a database to manage the data,
and then deal with the problem based on experience to determine the sequence.
However, it is not efficient with strong subjective human factors; in that case, a new
approach must manage, analyze and use data efficiently.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIOUS TEST DATA
At present, in construction sections, test data is stored separately,
analyzed and used independently, which seriously constrained the workers in
learning the equipment status and formulate a scientific maintenance program
accurately, comprehensively, and timely. Through the above-mentioned
characteristics of the various detection methods analysis, it is easy to get their
complementary relationship (shown in Figure 1).

Track inspection
train testing

Combined
Static checking
Complementary

Locomotive
installed system
testing Comprehensive
indicator

Figure 1. Complementary relationship between the detection means.

(1) Locomotive installed system data is timely and largely covered to make up
for track inspection train’s disadvantage in the same area.
(2) Track inspection train data is complete in track geometry testing to make up
for Locomotive installed system’s few testing items.
(3) Reconsidering the complementary relationship between dynamic and static
data, we combined the tow and obtained an integrated indicator which will analyze
and evaluate quality status of line equipment more accurately.

STUDIES ON TRACK INTEGRATION QUALITY INDEX

The Presentation of Track Integration Quality Index
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1451
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According to the three detection means complementary relationships, a variety

of testing data can be quantified for their respective indicators through the
corresponding calculation. Among which track inspection train testing data still use
the TQI to quantify; locomotive cab installed systems TAI (Track Acceleration Index);
Static checking, TSI (Track Static Index). Three indicators will be integrated as an
indicator, expressed as TIQI (Track Integration Quality Index).
For a railway line with different grades and characteristics, we set a, b, and c as
the weight of each indicator through the experimental study, then the indicators for
general elevation of line section are:
f TIQI  f TQI  a  f TAI  b  f TSI  c (1)

In the equation, fTIQI, fTQI, fTAI, fTSI represent track integration quality index, track
quality index, track acceleration index, and calculated track static index, respectively.
Evaluation indicators are shown in Table 1. In order to make different lines
comparable, we set a+b+c=1.
Table 1. TIQI value.

Testing type Calculating Management Weight Remark

value value
Track inspection train fTQI [fTQI] a No checking a=0
Locomotive
installed system fTAI [fTAI] b

Static checking fTSI [fTSI] c

fTIQI [fTIQI]

In Table 1, [ f TQI ], [ f TAI ], [ f TSI ] is individual management of the fTQI, fTAI, fTSI,

respectively. [fTIQI] is the management of track integration quality index,

[ fTIQI]＝[ f TQI ]×a＋[ f TAI ]×b＋[ f TSI ]×c.

For equation (1), we use three different approaches.

(1) The lines checked more often by track inspection trains, we increase a while
reducing b appropriately through experimental study.
(2) The lines checked fewer times by track inspection trains, we increase b and
reduce a appropriately through experimental study.
(3) When rail inspection cars do not check the line, then, a =0. The remaining
weight is in an appropriate proportion of b and c .
Based on the different approaches on equation (1), it can be clearly seen, for the
different characteristics and grades railway line, there will be a different TIQI
management. Therefore, TIQI is applicable not only to the main lines, but also the
secondary. Furthermore, considering the data of locomotive installed systems and
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1452
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Static checking, TIQI is able to reflect the actual status of railway lines with different
characteristics and grades more accurately, in theory.
Method of Track Integration Quality Indexes Calculation
(1) According to the "Rules of the Railway Line Repair" (Rail Transportation
[2006] No. 146) on the calculation method for TQI, such as the equation (2) shown.
7
f TQI    i (2)
i 1

1 n

2
i  ( xij 2  xij )
n j 1
σi——standard deviation;
xij ——arithmetic mean of xij which is the amplitude of deviations in continuous

sampling points of unit section;

n ——the number of the sampling points (200 m unit section, n = 800).

(2) fTAI is calculated according to the equation (3).
f TAI  1/ 2 V  2 / 3 H (3)

1 n

2
V  ( xvj2  xvj )
n j 1

1 n

2
H  ( xHj2  xHj )
n j 1

σV ——the standard deviation of vertical acceleration bias;

σH —— the standard deviation of lateral acceleration bias;
xVj ——arithmetic mean of xij which is the amplitude of vertical acceleration

deviations in continuous sampling points of unit section;

xHj ——arithmetic mean of xij which is the amplitude of lateral acceleration

deviations in continuous sampling points of unit section;

n ——the number of the sampling points (200 m unit section, n = 100).

It is shown that lateral acceleration deviation impacts the safe operation of trains
greater than the vertical acceleration deviation. Experts find that equation (3) is more
reasonable through investigation and analysis. Of course, this is debatable and will
be discussed in the follow-up study.
(3) fTSI is calculated according to the equation (4).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1453
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The index calculation is very difficult, because the Methods of artificial static
checking vary widely. Checking items are numerous, and the quantity and quality
are greatly affected by man-made factors. At this point, it can be determined by
expert (inspection team in construction sections) ratings, shown in table 2.
Table 2. fTSI calculated.
Expert Expert … Expert fTSI
1 2 … m (Taking the average score of experts)
Evaluation
unit 1
Evaluation
unit 2
……
Evaluation
unit n
Note: Per km for a rating unit. Rating out of 10 points, excellent quality for the 8.5 ~ 10
points, good for 7.5 ~ 8.5 points (excluding), general for 6.0 ~ 7.5 points (excluding),
less than 6.0 is poor.
The Application of Track Integration Quality Index Management
Consult the approach which is used in TQI evaluation on status balance of track
quality. If fTIQI is smaller than [fTIQI], the quality status is better; conversely, the
bigger, the worse. Therefore, the section of which the fTIQI is smaller than [fTIQI], is in
a balanced quality status, however, the larger ones, are not.
TIQI and its single management can also refer to TQI which is according to the
quality status of a section for choosing the single parameter or the integration index
([fTIQI]) in decreasing order as the main reference of capacity and priority of
maintenance plan.
Particularly, the greatest difference between TIQI and TQI in the management
applications is that: For the railway line with different characteristics and grades, TQI
management is a certain value, usually 15, while the [fTIQI] is different in order to
adapt to the railways with different speeds.
Considering the rational allocation of repair resources, we should meet different
lines with different grades and characteristics when working on maintenance plans
according to its capacity and priority. If we adopt the same standard, in fact, it’s the
procrustean. In other words, the TIQI of important lines will be small with higher
equipment quality requirements, whereas for the secondary lines, TIQI will be large
with lower requirements.
CONCLUSION
In this paper, we propose the Track Integration Quality Index and explore the
corresponding calculation and application methods given the shortcomings of the
data using of static checking, locomotive installed system and track inspection train,
and quantifing the data according to their complementary relationships.
The author’s corresponding calculation and analysis on TIQI makes it widely used
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1454
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in the management of track quality status. This method works well in many sections
and the results are show below:
(1) The TIQI is more scientific and rational which provides a good evaluation
system for China’s railway development strategy.
(2) No matter how often the track inspection car tests, TIQI can reflect the quality
status comprehensively and truly to enhance the scientificalness of railway line’s
maintenance and management.
(3) The application of TIQI makes the resources to repair a more reasonable
distribution, which also can reduce the maintenance cost to some extent.
(4) China has successfully developed a comprehensive inspection trains, with
high-speed, high frequency of detection, accurate, and reliable testing data.
Therefore, more suitable for high-speed railways and a special line for passengers,
the TIQI also needs to be further revised.
REFERENCES
Gui, Z. (2006). “Discussion on the method of track quality evaluation.” Shanghai
Railway Science & Technology, Apr.21-22. .
Ministry, (2006). “Rules of the railway line repair.” Beijing: China Railway Press.
Zhang, X., Chen, X., and Zeng, Z. (2007). “Experimental study on the quality state
parameter of ballast in Qinghai-Tibet railway.” Journal of Railway Science
and Engineering, Apr.64-67..
Zhuang, P., and Jiang, N. (2008). “Use TQI to guide track maintenance.” Railway
operation technology, Jan. 27-29..
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1455
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Evaluation and Recommendation to the Beijing BRT System

Shuling WANG1, Shujun WANG2, Fang WANG3 Chunfu SHAO4

1
PHD student, MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems
Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University No.3 Shang Yuan Cun, Hai
Dian District, Beijing, China Post-Code 100044.
Engineer, Beijing Transportation Research Center. No.9 Beibinhe Road, Xuanwu
District, Beijing, China Post-Code 100055, E-mail: wangsl.bj@gmail.com
2
Engineer, Inner Mongolia Sheng Yu Supervision Co., Ltd., No.28 XIngan South
Road, Wulanhaote, Inner Mongolia, Post-Code 100073. E-mail:
wangshujun_im@sina.com
3
Engineer, Beijing Transportation Research Center. No.9 Beibinhe Road, Xuanwu
District, Beijing, China Post-Code 100055, E-mail: wangf@bjtrc.org.cn
4
Professor, MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems
Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University. No.3 Shang Yuan Cun, Hai
Dian District, Beijing, China Post-Code 100044, E-mail: cfshao@center.njtu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Through the BRT operating facilities, operational efficiency, service levels,
passenger satisfaction and other indicators, this paper evaluated the operation of
Beijing BRT lines and contrasted the regular bus lines with a comparative analysis. A
comprehensive summary of Beijing BRT operating experience was concluded.
In general, BRT has the merits of running faster, saving travel time, reducing
delay, high rate of punctuality, high efficiency, and being environmental friendly and
so on. The survey also found that because there are differences in signal priority and
line location in the three BRT lines, the running speed, operation time composition,
passenger volume, loading ration, passenger satisfaction are different. To solve the
BRT existing problems, BRT lines and the regular bus lines must be integrated into
the same corridor, with the implementation of adjustment line’s location, transfer
connections, and setting signal priority. This paper will be useful for Beijing BRT
development and provides BRT experience for other cities.

INTRODUCTION
In many cities of the world, a fast public transportation mode is gradually
becoming more popular. It is referred to as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT).
The Bus Rapid Transit System was originated in the Brazilian city of Curitiba.
In the 1970s, with the onset of rapid economic development, a rapid increase in
urban population and the increase in private car ownership, city traffic has been
deteriorating. In Curitiba city, in order to alleviate the urban traffic congestion
situation, which was coupled with a lack of sufficient funds to build rail transit,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1456
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policy makers and urban planners developed and implemented a new means of
public transport. Their aim was to create a rail transit at one tenth of the cost. The bus
rapid transit system, which possessed many public transportation characteristics,
soon became the original type of BRT (Chen et al., 2004). .
After three decades of improvement, the bus rapid transit system mode of
Curitiba has finally matured. At the same time, many cities in the world emulated the
Curitiba and developed or tried to improve their different types of bus rapid transit
systems. Especially in the United States, Canada, Australia and some European cities,
decision-makers and city planners have taken the BRT system as a new mode of
public transport, compared with subway transport.
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) is being promoted and applied in major Chinese cities.
Beijing, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Changzhou, Jinan all have established preliminary Bus
Rapid Transit plans, which are being introduced gradually.
Beijing built the first BRT line in China in 2004. The first BRT line was named
BRT1; it is 16 kilometers in length and has 17 bus stations. BRT1 takes the dedicated
closed lane and signal priority. The IC data shows that BRT1 carries 122 thousands
passengers per day and its passenger volume ranks the second of all Beijing bus lines.
Followed by BRT1, Beijing built BRT2 and BRT3. Now Beijing has 3 BRT lines
with a length of 60 kilometers and 63 bus stations. BRT has become a part of the
Beijing public transport rapid transit system. It plays an important role in improving
public transport, It helps alleviate traffic congestion and guide urban development.
Changzhou BRT1 has one main line (B1) and three interval lines (B11, B12,
B13). Construction started in May 24, 2007 upon completion in May, 2008 the BRT1
was taken into operation. At the end of 2008, the BRT system average daily
passenger volume was more than 120,000, which is approximately 14% of public
transport volume in Changzhou City. As a public transport artery, BRT provides safe,
convenient, comfortable and reliable public transport service for the Changzhou
residents. Since its opening BRT has led to well studied social benefits (Cai et al.,
2009).
According to the 2004 "Hangzhou large-capacity Bus Rapid Transit Special
Plan", Hangzhou plans to build 11 BRT lines with a total length of 183 kilometers in
2020. Currently lines B1 and B2 lines are operational, and the B3 line will open soon.
The average daily passenger volume reaches 26 million.
The first phase BRT for the Xiamen BRT system calls for three lines with a total
length of 42.9Km. The design work began in the end of 2006, the construction began
at Sep, 2007, and in August 31, 2008 the three lines were brought into operation. The
short construction period for BRT meant the main construction only required a year
to be completed. Xiamen BRT achieved better operation results than expected at the
beginning of the first phase. In January 2009, the average daily passenger volume has
reached 16 million, and the maximum daily passenger volume was over than 18
million. Xiamen BRT vehicle numbers is less than 1/20 of total bus vehicles, the line
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length only accounts for 1.5%, but it undertakes 10% of total bus passenger volume;
it has played a key role in transportation (Ding, 2009; Bian et al., 2009)
BRT DEVELOPMENT IN BEIJING
In 2004, Beijing Municipal Government issued the "Beijing transportation
development master plan" to identify the priority development policy of public
transport. Then "Beijing's public buses network systems plan and implement
program" and the "Beijing optimal adjustment of urban subway transit network
program "clearly put forth the goal of building Bus Rapid Transit system. Currently,
Beijing BRT is in the beginning stage, three lines have been running, with a total
length of about 60 km. They are respectively BRT1 (South axis BRT), BRT2
(Chaoyang Road BRT) and BRT3 (Anli road BRT). BRT4 (Fushi BRT) is under
construction. The BRT lines position is shown in Figure 1.

BRT3

BRT2
BRT4(under construction)

BRT1

Figure 1. Beijing BRT Position.

BRT1:
BRT1 is the first large-capacity rapid bus line, its building is based on the needs
of public transport development, with the reference of advanced concepts and
technologies design. BRT1 route travels through the south of downtown, through
Chongwen and Fengtai district. The southern starting point is Demaozhuang and the
line terminates at QianmenIt travels through through the Qianmen, Yongdingmen,
Muxi Yuan, Yihe community and other commercial, transportation, and residential
areas. The route crosses with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and subway Line 2. The total length
is about 16 kilometers with 17 stations, including 6 bus transfer stations. BRT1
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operates on the dedicated closed bus lane; it is a north-south transport artery.

BRT2:
Beijing BRT 2 was opened on July 31, 2008; it is the second large-capacity bus
rapid transit line in Beijing. BRT2 route locates from Chaoyangmen to Yangzhao. It
connects the central city, central business district, Dingfuzhuang and other office,
commercial and residential areas along BRT2 route. The total length is about 16km
with 21stations. Because of the limited road space, BRT2 operates on not entirely
closed bus lane. It is an important public transport corridor in Beijing eastern.
BRT3
BRT3 was opened on July 31, 2008; it is the third largest-capacity bus rapid
transit line in Beijing. BRT3 can transfer to subway lines 5, 13, and 2. BRT3 is
divided into the main line and interval line. The main line startsat Andingmen station
and ends at the Hongfuyuan communityThe total length is 23km with 22 bus stations.
The interval line is started at Andingmen station, ended at Wendushuicheng , the total
length is 22km with 22 bus stationsBecause of the limited road space, BRT3 does not
operate entirely on a bus only lane.
EVALUATION OF BEIJING BRT
Passengers
In the current operation BRT lines, BRT1 has the largest passenger volumes, its
daily passenger is more than 120,000, and its early peak passenger is more than
15,000 in the direction of towards to city center. The passenger volume of BRT2 is
the smallest, it is only a quarter of BRT1 including all-day and peak hour passengers
Table 1. Passenger Volumes Contrast.
Line number Morning peak hour evening peak hour
Daily passengers passengers(direction passengers(direction
of towards to city of opposite to city
center) center)
BRT1 121199 15860 19964
BRT2 34724 4044 6780
BRT3 60579 7509 12138
Travel speed
According to a survey, this paper made a comparison of the three lines travel
speed including three periods, towards to city center direction in morning peak hour,
opposite to city center direction in the evening peak hour, and non-peak hour. All the
three lines are based on the same speed limit. It found that BRT1 travel speed is the
highest, the three periods travel speeds are all over 23km/h; BRT3 travel speed ranks
the second, the travel speed in evening peak hour is lower than 20km/h; BRT2 travel
speed is the lowest, the travel speed in all the three periods is lower than 20km/h, it’s
operation efficiency is the same with normal buses.
Table 2. Travel Speed Contrast.
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Line number Morning peak hour non-peak hour evening peak hour
travel speed travel speed (km/h) travel speed
(direction of (direction of
towards to city opposite to city
center)(km/h) center) (km/h)

BRT1 23 23-25 23
BRT2 15-16 18-20 17
BRT3 21-22 26 19
Travel Time Structure
This paper selected the morning peak hour with the direction of towards to city
enters as an example to contrast the travel time structure of BRT lines. The
investigators taking bus used special software to record the start and ending time
point of the deferent bus operation situation. The record data is shown bellow. There
are 8 samples for each BRT line.

Run Dir Bus station situation Start End

BRT2 E 3 Stop time in bus station 08:17:55 08:20:02
BRT2 E 3 Running 08:20:02 08:22:55
BRT2 E 3 Congestion delay(queuing) 08:22:55 08:27:06
BRT2 E 3 Running 08:27:06 08:32:07
BRT2 E 4 Stop time in bus station 08:32:07 08:34:02
It is found that, for the running time ratio, BRT3 ranks first; for the stop time in
bus station ratio, BRT1 ranks first; for the time waiting for signal ratio, BRT2 ranks
first; and for the congestion delay time ratio, BRT2 also ranks first.
From the data, it can be concluded:
(1) These three BRT lines all take lots of time waiting for signal, accounting for
more than 15% of total travel time.
(2) BRT2 is under the most unfavorable transport operating environment. The
proportions of signal waiting time and congestion delays added up to 40% of the
total travel time; it greatly affected the overall operating efficiency.
(3)The stop time in bus station has close relationship with passenger boarding
volumes. The boarding volume of BRT1 is the highest, so it’s stop time in bus station
is correspondingly the most; The boarding volume of BRT2 is the lowest, so it’s stop
time in bus station is minimum;
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1460
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BRT Travel Time Structure Contrast

80% 73%
66% BRT1
60% 54% BRT2
BRT3
40%
21%
17% 16% 15% 17%
20% 7% 10%
1% 2% 0% 1% 0%
0%
runing time stop time in waiting for congesntion others
station signal delay

Figure 2. BRT Travel Time Structure.

Passenger attitudes
For the three BRT lines, a survey was conducted to reflect the passenger’s
attitudes to BRT. This survey included 1500 samples, the samples are random chose.
From the view of saving time- point, most of the passengers felt that the BRT
can save travel time compared by normal buses. Among the three BRT lines, BRT3
was considered to save the most time, 46% of the passengers felt taking BRT3 can
save 10 minutes or more and only 8% of the passengers do not think it saves time.

Saving time contrast

No saving time Less than 10 min More than 10 min

Figure 3. Saving Time Contrast.

From the view of wait time, most of the passengers felt the BRT average wait
time is shorter than normal buses. There was no significant difference among the
three BRT lines.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1461
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waiting time contrast

shorter than Same with Longer than

normal bus normal bus normal bus
Figure 4. Waiting Time Contrast.
Passenger’s feeling of BRT crows level is a relative subjective factor in this
survey. But it also reflects the BRT operation level. From the view of crowded level
inside the BRT vehicle, BRT 1 is the most crowded, BRT2 is the least crowded, it is
mainly because BRT1 passenger volume was the biggest and BRT2 passenger
volume was the smallest.
Crowded level

No Crowded Crowded Serious Crowded

Figure 5. Crowded Level inside BRT Vehicle.

Passenger suggestion
Passenger proposals for the three BRT lines were focus on "alleviate crowded",
"shorten wait time" and "increase speed". "Shorten wait time" and "increase speed"
can be attributed to reduce passenger travel times, "alleviate crowded" reflects the
BRT passenger’s comfort requirements.
Almost all passengers choose BRT for its advantage of higher speed. However,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1462
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the passengers are not entirely satisfied with the travel speed of BRT currently; there
are still demands to increase the travel speed.

Passenger's Suggestions for BRT

2 BRT3
others 0
1
BRT2
20
longer bus line 42 BRT1
9
10
add guide sign 11
7
31
improve infrastructure 38
13
80
shorten transit distance 69
24
58
punctual operation 100
63
137
allievate crowd 157
376
342
reduce wait time 232
231
320
increase speed 351
276

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Figure 6. Passenger suggestions about BRT.

CONCLUSIONS
Bus Rapid Transit is a form of public transport with high-quality, high efficiency,
low energy consumption, low pollution and low-cost It fully embodies the
people-oriented development concept of building a harmonious society. As a
large-capacity, rapid mode of transportation, bus rapid transit system can help
alleviate the city's traffic problems, provide a comfortable traveling environment and
save travel time, it incurs significantly less construction costs compared to rail
transportation. It also balances the transportation development mode, and can
effectively improve the quality of urban living environment.
In this paper, a survey was conducted at the three BRT lines and a comparative
analysis was also conducted. It is easy to see, that BRT1 is generally under a good
operation situation, that it also reflects the advantages of rapid transit, plays a certain
role in resolving the corridor passengers travel, but there is still room for
improvement. In contrast, the BRT2, BRT3 operation have many problems, it needs
overall considerations. A summary of Beijing BRT lines current operation is useful
for future BRT planning and operations. This significance is embodied in the
following areas:
（1） In the planning phase it is necessary to do passenger flow forecast, find
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out the status of bus routes available within the corridor and residents travel
characteristics of the entire corridor, and consider bus rapid transit planning as the
part planning of large corridor plan. And in the planning of bus rapid transit lines, it
must be integrating buses along with the rapid transit lines, so to complement each
other and avoid weaknesses, and play the advantages of the entire public transport
system.
（2） It is important to make BRT stop station plan. The distance of each stop
station will affect vehicle speed significantly. So it must give full consideration to the
impact while meeting the needs of passengers traveling at the same time.
（3） Plan of transfer. It includes the transfer between BRT and normal buses,
and the transfer between BRT and cars, bicycles. In the transfer station with large
passenger volumes, Park & Ride facilities for cars and bicycles can be provided in
order to attract more passengers, while alleviate the traffic pressure of central city.
（4） Signal priority. Currently Beijing BRT routes do not set signal priority,
so the operating efficiency is greatly discounted. How to set BRT priority signals at
the intersection under the premise of minimizing the impact to social vehicles
requires further discussion and study.
REFENRENCES
Bian, J., Ding, M. (2009). “An implementation study on planning & development of
BRT system.” Urban Transport of China. Vol.7, No.3, Page: 6-10
Cai, J. (2009). “Planning and design characteristics of BRT line 1 in Changzhou.”
Urban Transport of China. Vol.7, No.3, Page: 18-21
Chen, Y., Guo, J., and Xu, K. (2004). “Action pale for implementation of bus rapid
transit systems in Beijing.” Urban Transportation of China, 2(2):25-28
Ding, M. (2009). “Development of the elevated BRT system in Xianmen City.”
Urban Transport of China. Vol.7, No.3, Page: 11-17
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1464
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Evaluation Model of Passenger Satisfaction Degree of Service Quality

for Urban Rail Transit

Lei SA1

1
School of Highway, Chang’an University, P.O. Box 377, Xi’an, 710064, China; PH
(+86) 13572060707; FAX (+86) 29-82334886; email: slna@foxmail.com

ABSTRACT: As the main public transportation in major cities, urban rail transit
attracts passengers for its size, efficiency, convenience and punctuality. With the
rapid development of China's rail transit, the service has put forward higher
requirements. According to the basic theory of the service quality and the
characteristics of rail transit, this paper establishes an evaluation index system, and
then uses evaluation methodology of neural networks to evaluate the passenger
satisfaction degree. At last, an experiment was done by MATLAB software to verify
the reasonableness of the evaluation model. The results indicate that this workable
approach provides a lot of useful information for rail transit departments to
understand travelers' demand and modify service quality.

INTRODUCTION
The urban rail transit systems have developed rapidly in China. The network
total mileage is up to 5,000, with underground credit topped to 800 billion Yuan (100
billion US dollars). With the rapid development of urbanization, the construction of
urban rail transit networks as an important component of Chinese urban public traffic
network have developed quickly. More than ten cities in China including Beijing,
Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, have already completed the rail transit lines,
with the number of cities that have planned to build rail transit networks increasing
to 25.
With the development of social economy and increase of rail transit operation
mileage, passenger flow has risen rapidly. Passengers have higher requirements on
comfort, rapidity and economy (i.e. service quality) in trips. Passenger degree of
satisfaction is the main index used in measuring traffic service quality. Considering
passengers’ demand, through the users’ experience of service quality, studies on
passenger satisfaction degree for urban rail transit service quality have been
evaluating traffic service conditions. It has significance for urban rail transit
department to understand passengers’ demand, improve the service idea, perfect
management mode, set up a new image of government and enterprises and increase
operating income.
According to the particularity of rail transit passenger transport and the
subjective psychological characteristics of passenger satisfaction evaluation, the
author established the evaluation index system of passenger satisfaction degree for
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1465
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urban rail transit, and use neural network analysis and evaluation methods to
assessment rail transit passenger satisfaction level, for improving the rail traffic
management and enhancing the transport service further.
SERVICE QUALITY AND CUSTOMER SATISFACTION DEGREE
Definition of service
Service is defined as ‘work done by one person or group that benefits another.
Although in the process of action it may be connected with a solid product, the action
is transferable. Usually it won't cause any problem of produced ownership (Wirtz et
al., 2005). Service is an action where production, distribution and consumption are
taking place simultaneously, with the users participating in the production process.
Services are often characterized by their intangibility, inseparability, heterogeneity,
and perishability.
Service quality and customer satisfaction degree
Service quality has been described as a form of attitude that results from the
comparison of expectations with performance (Churchill et al., 1982). Empirical
evidence suggests that the tangible and physical surroundings of the service
environment have a significant impact on customer responses and their behavioral
intentions. Hence, there are reasonable grounds to assume that customer satisfaction
is also related to customer evaluations of physical surroundings of the service
environment.
Passenger satisfaction degree of rail transit service quality refers to the user of
rail transit, namely the attitude of the passenger after comparing the service
perception quality and its expectation supplied by rail transit. After taking the subway,
passengers will complain if the experience is deemed inferior to prior expectations.
Customer satisfaction degree (a structure variable) is obtained through
alternating econometrics. Customer satisfaction index is a very popular and frontier
topic in the quality and economic fields both at home and abroad. At abroad, in many
countries, such as America, customer satisfaction evaluation system has been mature.
In China, the research and practice about customer satisfaction index evaluation have
begun to take shape, but have not been formally implemented in the national system
due to a lack of relevant standards and specifications.
Passenger satisfaction degree process
1. From the characteristics of elements, considering the operation status of
urban rail transit, the paper established the service quality evaluation index system by
qualitative and quantitative method.
2. According to the index system, the paper has designed a survey scheme and
passengers satisfaction survey questionnaire. Through the investigation of passengers,
data was collected.
3. The paper drew multilayer feed forward back propagation neural network (BP
neural network) into rail transit passengers’ evaluation model, and then used
MATLAB software to learn and train the sample data for determining the decision
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weight. Thus the paper got the ultimate evaluation (see Figure 1).

Constructing evaluation index

system

Establish BP
Analyzing the Determine
neural network
influential factors evaluation index
model

Investigation and data

processing

Design Data processing

Investigation
questionnaire and analysis

Training the neural network

（Matlab）

Determine the
decision weight

Comprehensive evaluation

Figure 1. Passenger satisfaction process.

RAIL TRANSIT PASSENGER SATISFACTION EVALUATION MODEL

Because of factors such as intangibility of transportation service and diversity of
passenger demand, there are diverse and complex factors that influence traffic
passenger satisfaction. We must establish a scientific, complete and objective service
evaluation index system to measure and evaluate service quality. Generally the index
system is established by questionnaire survey, expert advice or combination of both
(Zhang et al., 2006).
Rail transit service evaluation index system
Urban rail transit is a transportation organization characteristic of small
marshalling, density, expedited daily commuting, business, tourism, etc in urban
areas. Consumer satisfaction is based on the views of the passenger, so indexes from
the view of passengers were collected to reflect the needs of consumers.
The most important reason the passengers choose railway transportation is for
the quick speeds and punctuality, which differs from the conventional public traffic.
Particularly, accompanied by over ground traffic congestion sharply increased,
comparing spending more time caused by interference factors in conventional bus, in
the condition of lack of time, rail transit is very competitive. From the data collected,
passengers pay the most attention to the time of pulling in and out of a station, ticket
checking time, transferring time between two track lines, if the train can arrive on
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1467
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schedule when waiting for it in platform, and whether the time is too long between
the two trains running interval in one line. These indicators constitute evaluation
index reflecting rapidity.
According to the survey, there are quite a few people who choose rail transit
because of safety and convenience. Passengers concerns are focused on the safety
when waiting on the platform and transitioning through subways, including
safeguard setting, personal property security, and whether security guards are
available to maintain order. Passengers demand reflects convenience focusing on the
environment of walking, waiting, etc. in the station, including temperature, humidity
level, and the ventilation condition.
Compared to conventional buses, passengers are most likely to complain about
convenience of rail transportation. Owing to the development history of Chinese rail
transit is short, it is impossible to form network in this kind of traffic, and the line
coverage is low. Even in Beijing (with more than ten track lines), it has low service
coverage, poor accessibility, the disjointed problems of transfer (both between tracks
and tracks- buses), long transfer distance, lack of guide information, especially the
lines build in initial stage, dynamic and real-time information cannot been provided.
Combining with the main factors influenced rail transit passenger satisfaction,
the paper establishes a rail transit service evaluation index system (see Table 1).

Table 1. Rail transit service passenger satisfaction.

first grade index second grade indexes third grade indexes
safeguard setting
emergency events reaction
safety
running safety
platform safety
guidance markers
transfer between tracks
Rail transfer between tracks and buses
convenience
transit information
service line coverage
passenger station accessibility
satisfaction time of pull in and out station
ticket checking time
transfer time
rapidity run speed
punctuality rate
operation interval
Complaint treatment
comfort waiting environment
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1468
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carriage environment
Roadability
staff’s attitude and ability to service
environment of store in station
Walking environment
economy ticket price endurance

Design survey questionnaire

In the passengers’ satisfaction questionnaire, total satisfaction and 24 evaluation
indexes are represented into five different levels: very satisfactory, satisfactory,
medium, not very satisfied, and poor. The paper evaluates the indexes using nine
scale processes, with five corresponding scores (9, 7, 5, 3, and 1) (Wu, 2009).
Respondents choose one of five grades in the total satisfaction and 24 evaluation
indexes. The process adjusts to human habits of contrast and judgments and
quantitative properties of practical data. It is beneficial to obtain better evaluation.
Because rail transit service is public-oriented, the sample range should be as
comprehensive as possible, including long-term customers and the potential. The
paper used quota sampling method, concerning different gender, age, and different
kinds of track.
1. Different gender and age
2. Proportion allocation in stratified random sampling of light rail, metro cars,
rapid railway and other kind of tracks
3. Sample size no less than 80
Rail transit passenger satisfaction evaluation model
Rail transit passengers’ evaluation model is a structural equation model. There
is a nonlinear relationship existing between the service quality and passenger
satisfaction, with the structural equation model itself having certain limitations that
cannot accurately reflect the complicated relationship between variables. Study in
passenger satisfaction can be researched by data mining technology (neural network,
decision tree) or regression method (Michael et al., 2004).
At the present time，passenger satisfaction evaluation was researched by
multiple regression analysis, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and grey correlation
analysis. By analyzing the relationship between total satisfaction and 24 evaluation
indexes satisfaction, multiple regression analysis produce the tropic equation for
determining the decision weight of each index. However, these models and methods
cannot solve the problems in the process of evaluation and subjective uncertainty and
fuzziness in the process of the experts’ cognition. A passenger satisfaction evaluation
model based on neural network can fully consider evaluation expert experience and
intuition thinking mode, and also can reduce uncertainties of the evaluation process.
When the actual evaluation parameters are inputted, the neural network can give
evaluation results from output terminals.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1469
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BP neural network fundamental principle

A neural network or artificial neural network is a network consisting of
connected neurons, which imitate information processing, storage and retrieval
functions of the nerve system to a certain extent. NN have intelligent processing
functions of learning, memory and computing (Wei, 2005).
In the passenger satisfaction model, satisfaction is a variable determined by
quite a few factors whose relationship is complex and fuzzy, making it harder to
inference accurately. The neural network has very strong adapting ability, learning
ability and associative memory. Simulating the brain’s thinking process; it allows
greater flexibility in the input data. It is very effective to process fuzzy indexes of
satisfaction through figuring out the relationship between independent and dependent
variables.
The propagation network using a BP algorithm is called a BP neural network.
The BP (Back-Propagation) algorithm, namely error back propagation, is a neural
network with learning algorithm tutor. BP network is constituted by input layer,
output layer, and hidden layer. Its algorithm idea is to input variables and get an
output variable after nonlinear changes treatment through input layer, hidden layer
and output layer. After this, the network computes the error between output variable
and the expectations, and the algorithm delivers the error back from input layer,
hidden layer and output layer, and modifies weights according to the direction of
decreasing error. When the process is repeated, network parameters are confirmed,
total error is minimal, and the learning process is complete.
The principle of the passenger satisfaction model, based on the BP neural
network, is to normalize the processing satisfaction evaluation index attribute values
as input vectors of the BP neural network and the evaluation result as the output. The
network is trained to get evaluation experts knowledge, experience, subjective
judgment and the importance of index by enough samples. The trained BP neural
network can get the evaluation results of passenger satisfaction from index weight. It
realizes the effective combination of qualitative and quantitative and ensures
objectivity, and consistency of evaluation.
Calculation method
(1) Determine the input nodes
Neural network input layer fully described the indexes effecting passengers
satisfaction. The paper chose 24 aforementioned secondary indexes composed input
layer through analyzing the controllable factors impact of rail transit service
satisfaction. The number of input node is 25.
(2) Determine the output nodes
Output represents functions target of the system. In our model, output layer has
only one index, which is rail transit satisfaction. The number of output node is one.
(3) Determine the hidden nodes
The function of hidden nodes is extracting and storing its inherent laws from the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1470
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sample. Each hidden nodes have some weights, each weights are a
parameter-enhanced network mapping capability (Wei, 2005). If hidden nodes are
lack of number, it will not good enough to reflect sample laws; if it has excessive
number, it will remember the disordering rule and increase the training time.
The number of nodes in the hidden layer is determined on trial and error.

According to the empirical formula: m= n + l + α In this method: m is the number

of hidden nodes，n is the number of input nodes，l is the number of output nodes，
a is a constant between 1~10 (Han, 2007). After calculating, the paper selected the
initial value of hidden nodes is 7. The BP neural network is shown as Figure 2.
X1

W1

X2
W2

X3 Y

W7

X24

Input layer Hidden layer Output layer

Figure 2. BP neural network structure of rail transit passenger satisfaction.

LEARNING AND TRAINING OF BP NEURAL NETWORK.
MATLAB is a numerical computing environment and fourth generation
programming language. Developed by The MathWorks, MATLAB allows matrix
manipulation, plotting of functions and data, implementation of algorithms, creation
of user interfaces, and interfacing with programs in other languages. The neural
network toolbox extends MATLAB with tools for designing, implementing,
visualizing, and simulating neural networks. Neural networks are invaluable for
applications where formal analysis would be difficult or impossible. The software
provides comprehensive support for many proven network paradigms, as well as
graphical user interfaces that enable us to design and manage the networks.
Network initialization
Network weights initialization determines the point from which it trained
network error; therefore initialization is very important to shorten training time. In
order to make the initial value of each node near zero, hidden layer weights should
be small enough, and in the output layer - 1and + 1 has equal weights.
Training network
The paper studies the function approximation, weights and threshold adjustment
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1471
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by learning rule, and once the training get maximum training number or the network
error is lower than the expectation, the process end task.
The result is only the relationship of each neuron, the paper use the indexes
below to determine the decision weights from input to output (Sun et al., 2001).
P
Related significant coefficient: rij = ∑W
k =1
ki (1 − e − x ) /(1 + e − x )

P
Related coefficient: Rij = ∑W
k =1
ki (1 − e − y ) /(1 + e − y )

m
Absolute influence coefficient: Sij = Rij / ∑ Rij
i =1

i is input node; j is output node; k is hidden node; wki is the weight from

input node i to output node k ; w jk is the weight from output node j to hidden node k .

The paper uses the formula above to obtain decision weights of each evaluation
index.
Output simulations
The valid samples collected randomly were divided into two parts, one as a
training set, and the other as a test set. When the training error meets the
requirements, the paper tested the network through test sets. We can see the
magnitude of simulation error through comparing the simulation output and expected
output.
Results analysis
The decision weights from input factors to output factors are stored in a
distributed network. This neural network is called the rail transit passenger
satisfaction evaluation model, where the parameters are decision weights. Output
value is obtained by MATLAB visualization software. The value between 0.8-1.0,
0.6-0.8, 0.4-0.6, 0.2-0.4 and 0-0.2 represents five grades: very satisfactory,
satisfactory, medium, not very satisfied, and poor.
CASE STUDY
The paper selected 17 cases as effective survey data of a city subway passenger
satisfaction survey, with10 cases as the training set, and the remaining 7 as the test
set.
BP neural network toolbox in MATLAB contains many functions for BP
network analysis and design, the paper selected tansig function as hidden layer
transformation function which is hyperbolic tangent sigmoid (s) transfer function.
The range (-∞, +∞) of input neurons can be mapped to (-1, +1), which is suitable for
training BP neuron (Han, 2007). The paper selected purelin function as output layer
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1472
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transformation function because purelin type linear neurons can be arbitrary values
of output of network.
Three-layer BP network with 24 input nodes, 1output node, 7 hidden nodes is
designed. Maximum number of training is 30, training precision is 0.1, and learning
rate is 0.05.
Simulation result is shown as below (see Figure 3):

Figure 3. BP neural network training.

Network was tested by test set. The neural network accuracy directly showing
simulation results can be compared each pair of simulation output and actual output
(see Figure 4).

Figure 4. BP neural network test.

In fig.4, ○ represents actual output, ● represents simulation outputs. As can be
seen from the graph, most simulation output accord with the actual output. Output
value is 0.6295. It represents satisfactory with the quality of service of the sample of
the urban rail transit.
SUMMARY
Evaluation of urban rail transport service passenger satisfaction is necessary to
measure service level of rail transit. The paper utilizes the qualitative analysis to
establish a passenger satisfaction evaluation index system, evaluate satisfaction by
neural network, and verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.
REFERENCES
Churchill, G., and Suprenant, C. (1982). “An investigation into the ieterminants of
customer satisfaction.” Journal of marketing Research, 491~504.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1473
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Han, L. (2007). “Artificial neural network theory, design and application.”

Chemical Industry Press, 52~58.
Jochen, Wirtz, and Christopher. (2005). “Service marketing: people, technology,
strategy”, Prentice Hall, 12~16.
Michael, C., and Ken, P.S. (2004). “Customer satisfaction analysis: identification
of key-driver” ． European Journal of Operational Research, 154,
819~827．
Sun, H., and Wang, X. (2001). “Determination of the weight of evaluation indexes
with artificial neural network method.” Journal of Shandong Inst. of Min.
& Tech, Sept., 84~86.
Wei, H. (2005). “Design theory and method of neural network structure.”
National Defence Industry Press, 20~25.
Wu, R., Zhai, D., Xi, E., and Li, L., (2009). “Evaluation model of satisfaction
degree for urban public transit service.” Journal of Traffic and
Transportation Engineering,Aug., 65~70.
Zhang, Q., and Yang, H. (2006). “Comprehensive evaluation of the degree of
railway passenger satisfaction based on fuzzy factors.” Journal of the
China Railway Society, Feb., 22~25.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1474
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An Improved Model for Signalized Intersections

Yuyang ZHAO 1 and Yuqin FENG 1 and Zhongliang YANG 1

1
Department of Automobile Engineering, Heilongjiang Institute of Technology,
Harbin, 150050, China; email: truezhyy@yahoo.com.cn

ABSTRACT
Delay is the critical index which is used for evaluating the signal timing plan of
intersection. There are some classic models for calculating delay, such as HCM2000,
Webster, ARRB and the synthesis algorithm used for urban comprehensive planning
in Shanghai. The methods mentioned above are verified with the delay data
surveyed in some intersections in Harbin. The result shows that there is a large
difference between the mentioned models and the measured data. Thereby, five
parameters model is established with the measured data by SPSS for calculating the
delay of intersection which operates in different status. The test values satisfy the
condition, which is required in the SPSS, and the correlation coefficients has
attained above 98 percent. The built models have been used for evaluating the traffic
situations of signal-controlled intersection in Harbin. The results can be accepted by
the experts. Whether the built model can be used in other cities needs further
research.

INTRODUCTION
Delay is the critical index, which is used for evaluation service level and
operational efficiencies at signalized intersections. It not only reflects the extra time
which users spent when passing it, but also the operation state of signalized
intersections in city road systems. If this state does well, delay is short. Therefore, it
is very important to analyze delay of signalized intersections for city road systems,
road designs and evaluating the signal timing plan.
Delay refers to travel time loss because of some elements which drivers can’t
control, such as road and environment conditions, traffic interference, traffic
management and control and so on, and it can be expressed by d. Delay analysis of
signalized intersections is a quite complex problem. It is about time difference
between the passing time when vehicles don’t need to stop and the actual time
needed at intersections, assuming there is no traffic signals at intersections.
Moreover, it has to do with signal cycle, timing plan, traffic flow and random factor
and so on. At present, there are some classic models for delay calculation, such as
English Webster (TRRL), Australian ARRB, U.S. HCM2000 etc. Meanwhile the
synthesis algorithm used for urban comprehensive planning in Shanghai is from
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American HCM2000, and both are basically the same.

This paper uses the point sample method to investigate the delay data at
cross-shape signal intersections and T-shape signal intersections in Harbin, and
compares delay values in theory with actual values measured through the above-
mentioned methods. Based on this, delay-calculating models at signal intersections
suitable for the actual traffic situations in Harbin will be built as well as theoretical
bases for researches on signal intersection control, delay analyses and calculations of
road system evaluation in Harbin.
DELAY SURVEY OF SIGNALIZED INSTERSECTIONS
To make survey data much truer and more precise, this paper uses the point
sample method to investigate intersection delay. Traffic information survey was
counted by person. Several investigators examined one-side of approach roads at
intersections in Changjiang Road and Hongqidajie Street, Changjiang Road and
Songsang Road, Changjiang Road and Huashan Road, Dongdazhi Street and
Guogeli Street, Huayuan Street and Dacheng Street and so on. This included 15-
second and one-minute parking, no one-minute parking, vehicles arriving at green
and red lights, accumulating vehicles with green lights over, and time intervals of
green, yellow and red light in different phases at the appointed roads.
The point sample method is based on data survey on the spot and also can be
considered as actual delay at intersections. Meanwhile, it can be the actually
measured values of intersection delay and the standard of results deviation with
other delay calculating methods.
DELAY CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS AT SIGNALIZED
INTERSECTIONS
This paper mainly uses traffic survey data to perform theoretical calculation
about several entrances of five classical intersections applying Webster, ARRB, and
HCM2009 (the synthesis algorithm used for urban comprehensive planning in
Shanghai). It takes the point sample delay algorithm results as actual driveway delay
and compares theoretical values with actually measured values at intersections.
Theoretical Calculation of Delay at Signalized Intersections
Because of limited space, this paper only lists calculation values at the
intersection of Changjiang Road and Hongqidajie Street, not including the whole
calculation values. These values are shown in Table 1 and delay fold line graph in
Figure 1.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1476
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Figure 1. The Delay Flop Line Graph at the Intersection in Changjiang Road
and Hongqidajie Street.
Comparative Analyses about Theoretical Calculation Values and Delay Values
Measured Actually
(1) Cycle length between 83s and 105s is suitable for Shanghai algorithm and
Webster by comparatively analyzing calculation values with Shanghai algorithm and
Webster and the point sample method in the driveway of every intersection. The
cycle length is 150s in Changjiang Road and Hongqidajie Street, 142s in Huayuan
Street and Dacheng Street, and 120s in Changjiang Road and Huashan Road. So it
can be known that Result deviation with Shanghai algorithm and Webster and the
point sample method is obvious.
(2) Result deviation of calculation delay and the point sample method will rise
dramatically when the saturation is more than 0.81 with Shanghai algorithm, such as
the second and third lane to the east at the intersection and the first and second lane
to the west at the intersection of Changjiang Road and Hongqidajie Street, the
second lane to the south at the intersection of Dongdazhije Street and Guogelidajie
Street, and the third lane to the south and to the north in Huayuan Street and
Dacheng Street etc. Therefore, when the saturation is more than 0.81, Shanghai
algorithm is not suitable for calculating intersection delay.
(3) When the split is less than 0.211, the result deviation of the calculation values
with Webster and the point sample method is very large, such as the first lane to the
east and to the west at the intersection of Huayuan Street and Dacheng Street.
(4) The parameter P (the ratio of the number of arriving vehicles at green light and
that of arriving vehicles during the whole cycle length) with Shanghai algorithm is
more and the delay is less. The parameter P with Shanghai algorithm should be less
than 0.4. Thus the delay limitation with Shanghai algorithm is great, such as the first
lane to the east, the first, second, and third lanes to the west, and the second lane to
the north at the intersection of Changjiang Road and Huashan Road.
(5) The delay calculation value with Australian ARRB is much less than that of the
point sample method.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1477
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Table 1. Comparison of Delay Theoretical Calculations and Actual Measured

Values.
The The The The
The first The first
second third second third
lane to lane to
lane to lane to lane to lane to
east south
east east south south
Arriving flow 164 248 264 508 476 284
Cycle length 150 150 150 150 150 150
Split 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.200 0.333 0.333
Saturation 0.668 1.010 1.075 1.517 0.853 0.848
P 0.634 0.194 0.212 0.528 0.412 0.423
Flowing ratio 0.098 0.148 0.158 0.303 0.284 0.170
N0 0 7 8 7 0 0
Queue length 0.571 1.429 1.429 0.143 1.714 0.143
HCM2000/Shanghai
39.47 236.54 150.53 294.91 56.30 64.28
algorithm
Webster 60.51 63.81 64.70 68.71 4 6.55 57.76
Australia 3.14 5.86 6.29 9.94 7.62 4.68
The point sample 33.38 36.28 39.25 41.75 33.99 29.40
The The The The
The first The first
second third second third
lane to lane to
lane to lane to lane to lane to
west north
west west north north
Arriving flow 580 456 248 300 560 260
Cycle length 150 150 150 150 150 150
Split 0.227 0.227 0.227 0.200 0.333 0.333
Saturation 1.528 1.207 0.653 0.900 1.003 0.466
P 0.593 0.272 0.145 0.520 0.364 0.415
Flowing ratio 0.346 0.272 0.148 0.179 0.334 0.155
N0 8 5 6 1 1 1
Queue length 0.714 1.286 0.714 0.714 0.714 0.714
HCM2000/Shanghai
292.83 184.26 66.00 61.25 182.96 37.38
algorithm
Webster 68.43 61.53 52.63 58.43 49.76 39.46
Australia 12.15 9.35 4.09 5.51 8.51 3.18
The point sample 44.63 36.56 27.23 29.49 33.54 23.77
THE DELAY MODEL ESTABLISHMENT AT INTERSECTIONS
This paper uses the software SPSS to fittingly construct a new model —
multi-parameter model because the result deviation of the some classic delay
calculation methods and the point sample method is large.
Determination on the mainly affecting elements
The affecting elements on delay are much more and complex, so it is
impossible to list all of them. Moreover, some elements overlap others, so this paper
chooses four mainly affecting elements: cycle length, saturation, split, and ratio P
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1478
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and the number of arriving vehicles during cycle length on the basis of
comprehensively considering all kinds of affecting elements.
Construct a New Model with Software SPSS----- Multi-Parameter Model
Use software SPSS to choose four parameters: cycle length, saturation, split,
and the ratio of the number of arriving vehicles at green light and that of arriving
vehicles during the whole cycle length at the investigated intersections as variable,
and delay as dependent variable.
Activate the data management window of software SPSS. Define the
variable name, input raw data, and click “Analyze” to choose the item “Linear in
Regression.” Eject Linear Regression dialog, then choose delay on the left of
variable lists in dialog, and then click button  to enter Dependent dialog. Select
cycle length, saturation, split, and ratio P. At last, click button  to enter
Independent(s) dialog. There are five choices on drop-down menu of Method: Enter,
Stepwise, Remove, Backward, and Forward. This example uses the way of Enter,
and click button OK to finish analysis. The calculating results are shown in Tables 2,
3 and 4.
Table 2. Model Testing.
Std. Error of the
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square
Estimate
1 .911(a) .829 .813 4.11138
Table 3. Analysis of Variance.
Model Sum of
df Mean Square F Sig.
Squares
1 Regression 3447.787 4 861.947 50.992 .000(a)
Residual 709.946 42 16.903
Total 4157.733 46
Table 4. Comparison of the Original Sample Values and Regression Equation.
Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N
Predicted Value 12.9248 42.2404 23.5344 8.65748 47
Residual -11.10273 7.69884 .00000 3.92856 47
Std. Predicted
-1.225 2.161 .000 1.000 47
Value
Std. Residual -2.700 1.873 .000 .956 47
Analyze the results in Table 2 to get correlation coefficient R=0.911, and coefficient
of determination R2=0.829; adjust the coefficient of determination to 0.813, and the
standard error of regression estimate is 4.11138. This expresses strong
representation of sample regression.
Table 3 is variance analysis in which variances are from Regression Residual and
Total 4 is degree of freedom, Mean Square is root mean square, F=50.992, therefore,
it can account for linear regression relationship between the point sample method
and the fitting delay. Sig is significance level.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1479
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Figure 2 is about regression coefficient estimate values and the test results
graph, constant term  0 =15.819, regression coefficient 1 =0.088,  2 =13.398,

 3 =-30.601,  4 =-1.820, regression coefficient test measurement t=2.295. The

multi-parameter of fitting construction regression equation:

d  15.819  0.088c  13.398 x  30.601  1.820 p

Figure 2. Coefficient Testing Results.

For the classic intersections, the mean absolute error is 3.21, and the mean
relative error is 16.7 percent by calculating driveway delay of the multi-parameter
model. The constructed multi-parameter model error is superior to that of the four
classic delay calculations by observing the driveway delay mean error and the mean
relative error at the traffic situation of Harbin.
Table 4 is a comparative result of the original sample values and the
regression equations from which it can be known that the minimum of the regression
equation in calculation is 12.9248 and the maximum 42.2404. Thus, one of the
conditions applicable to the newly constructed multi-parameter is the delay
calculation value between 12.9248s and 42.2404s at intersections.
CONCLUSION
This paper does some research on HCM2000, Shanghai algorithm, Webster,
ARRB and the point sample delay calculation method in virtue of literatures at home
and abroad, and takes some classic intersections as the research object to calculate
driveway delay values by using several methods mentioned above which are
compared with those of the point sample method.
It is concluded that the result deviation of the four classic delay calculations
and the point sample method is large. At last, this paper uses software SPSS to
construct and fit the multi-parameter model and verify it. The constructed multi-
parameter model is superior to that of the four classic delay calculations by
observing the driveway delay mean error and the mean relative error at the traffic
situation of Harbin. This kind of model is suitable to the traffic situation in Harbin
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1480
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and provides the theoretical ground for researches on signalized intersection control,
delay analyses and calculation of road systems.
REFERENCES
Axhausen, K.W. (1994). “Effectiveness of the parking guidance information system
in frankurtam.” Traffic Engineering Control.
Chen, S., and et al. (2005). “Comparision of delay calculating method at signalized
intersections .” Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University.
Guo , F., and et al. (2005). “Research on traffic flow characteristics and delay at
signalized intersections.” Traffic Science and Technology in Shanxi.
Qin, L., He, Y., and Tian. G. (2007). “Research on mean delay calculation method
of broadening intersections.” Journal of Changchun Institute of
Technology: Natural Science Edition.
Yang, P. (2005). “Probability and statistics models of intersection delay.” Journal of
Tongji University.
Zhuang, Y., and et. al. (2006). “Research on delay calculation model at signalized
intersections.” Journal of Shenzhen University Science and Engineering.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1481
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Ontology-Based Air Traffic Management (ATM) Systems

NAN LI 1, LEILEI ZHANG 2 and XIAOHAO XU 3

1
Air Traffic Management Research Center, Civil Aviation University of China,
Tianjin, China; PH (86)13820514532; email: nanli@cauc.edu.cn
2
Air Traffic Management Research Center, Civil Aviation University of China,
Tianjin, China; PH (86)13602102387; email: leileilovefish@126.com
3
Air Traffic Management Research Center, Civil Aviation University of China,
Tianjin, China; PH (86)13502129701; email: xhxu@cauc.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
"ATM integration" is the new trend for the development of Next-Generation Air
Transportation System (NGATS). The main problem of “ATM integration” is
information sharing and interaction of the heterogeneous systems. Standardization
and formalization of the domain ontologies provide a good solution for the
interoperability information system. This article introduces a concept of ontology to
the ATM system, and then it creates an ATM domain ontology and analyzes the
relationship in the clear expression concepts. Ontology-based systems prove a
fundamental solution for the information sharing and integration issues which are
faced by the ATM systems integration. In this paper, we illustrate an ontology-based
ATM system framework in order to provide a unified set of semantic knowledge for
ATM domain. This measure solves the ambiguity problem in understanding and
provides technical support for the ATM integration.

INTRODUCTION
With information technology, communications technology and satellite technology
as representative of the new technology widely used in the aviation field, the civil
aviation ATM is undergoing profound changes. International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) proposed the new concept of "global ATC operation," and ATM
systems are facing the challenge of high-efficiency intellect. The consecutive
upgrading and complication of ATM systems will inevitably lead to creating more
interoperability-barriers in heterogeneous systems. Ontology is a new way to
describe the concept of hierarchical structure and semantics model; it is an effective
method for solving the interaction, sharing and reusing of the knowledge.
Ontology-based ATM systems can provide a good solution for the interoperability
issue, which occurs in heterogeneous systems.
ONTOLOGY
Ontology Description
Domain ontologies are formal descriptions of the classes of concepts and the
relationships among those concepts that describe an application area. In philosophy,
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ontology is the study of the kinds of things that exist. It has been extended to the
field of Artificial Intelligence (AI). At present the most accurate definition is given
by Studer. That is, an ontology is a formal, explicit specification of a shared
conceptualization (Studer et al., 1998). The meaning of ontology contains four layers:
conceptualization, explicit, formal and share. The core of an ontology model is a
finite set concept of entities, which is recognized in a particular area. The semantic
information is expressed through the association between the concepts of entities
(Juha et al., 2007).
An ontology has a good concept hierarchy structure and supports the logical
reasoning. It uses strict definitions and the relationship between the concepts to
determine the precise meaning of the concept. It indicates a common recognition and
shareable knowledge and provides the knowledge sharing and reusing in the
knowledge layer. The nature of ontologies is the domain knowledge sharing and
reusing. The application of ontology ensures there is no ambiguity between different
systems in the same field. The non-ambiguity knowledge can be shared in different
systems (Neches et al., 1991).
ONTOLOGY APPLICATION
In the last decade, various disciplines come to recognize the important function
that an ontology describes as the concept of knowledge representation and
knowledge organization. With in-depth study of ontologies, various types of
knowledge ontology libraries have been established. Especially in dealing with issues
like systems interaction and integration in the network-based heterogeneous systems
environment, an ontology is considered the preferred solution (Lin et al., 2005). In
the common sense knowledge processing, ontology is one of the most important
tools to establish a common sense knowledge base (Heflin, 2000).
The concept of ontologies has become ubiquitous in artificial intelligence,
knowledge engineering, knowledge management, object-oriented analysis, library
information science and many other fields in recent years. The applications of
ontology concept in Intelligent Transport System (ITS) have been gradually
improved, such as ontology-driven SAM (Situation Awareness Systems)
(Baumgartner et al., 2007) and WikiCity system (Resch et al., 2007). The
implementation of an ontology-driven SAW system based on a domain independent
SAW ontology resolves a shortcoming of traditional approaches to SAW, namely the
missing formal conceptual model for SAW. In addition, such an ontology-driven
SAW system entails all the advantages in the corresponding application scenarios
without replacing traditional probabilistic approaches to SAW. The most important
benefit of the WikiCity concept is its portable base framework. Its very modular
structure and clear functional organization of its components allow for an easy
portability to other scenarios. This is also guaranteed by a simple extensibility of the
integration of new SWS and PS into the system. However, this flexibility is also one
of the biggest challenges of the system. It requires a very flexible backend including
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the service infrastructure and a comprehensive ontology.

ATM DOMAIN ONTOLOGIES
Ontology-Based ATM System Framework
ATM systems are integrated and distributed information systems. The
heterogeneous structure and equipment is a general problem in these systems. The
establishment of ATM domain ontology is designed to eliminate differences in the
concepts and terminology which exist in ATM heterogeneous systems. If there is no
difference in exchanging and sharing of information, the conceptual understanding of
the ATM domain can reach a consensus.
The idea that an ontology is brought into ATM systems is based on the successful
application in ITS. The framework of ontology-based ATM systems is shown in
Figure 1. Remote knowledge bases can be accessed and are understood by the ATM
system by virtue of being tied in to the ontology. The ontology-based service system
provides a unified set of semantics and standardized conceptual models for
heterogeneous information in ATM systems integration environment. This measure
makes heterogeneous systems in the framework achieve information sharing and
integration. Furthermore, an ontology-based service system can provide intelligent
information services for ATM systems.

Ontology Service System

Share obtain store MySql

General
Internet process Ontology database
Information read

Data
Inquiry
Support
Definition Service
Services
Domain
Expert

ATM
Information source automation User Application
system

Figure 1. Ontology-based Services Framework of ATM Systems.

Ontology modeling of ATM domain
Currently, there are many ways to construct domain ontologies: Enterprise
Methodology, Skeletal Methodology, Prototype Methodology and so on. ATM
domain ontology modeling depends on the cyclic iterative method, which is an
improved method of skeleton method. There are many problems in currently
available ontology modeling methods. These methods cannot support the idea of
ontology engineering. The cyclic iterative method generated by software engineering
theory can better understand the requirements, design a strong framework, build a
good development organization and deliver a series of gradually improving
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implementation of the results. Figure 2 illustrates the configuration of ontology

modeling flow chart.
determine the areas and
scope of the ontology

Obtain the domain

knowledge

Determine the types and

their relationships,
attributes, building
ontology model

amend the concept of

classes, relations,
attributes Ontology coding

Satisfy for the

N
evaluation?

The concept of classes,

relationships, attributes is
complete?

end

Figure 2. Ontology Modeling Flow Chart.

The five ontology modeling primitives are listed as follows: (1) Concept: could
refer to anything, job description, function, behavior, strategy, reasoning process and
so on. (2) Relationship: used to express the relationship between concepts and their
properties. (3) Axiom: used for the constraints of concepts and instances, and the
expression of identically true formula. (4) Instances: used for a specific individual of
the class. These primitives are necessary for all ontology modeling. Ontologies
generally appear as a taxonomic tree of conceptualizations, from very general and
domain-independent at the top levels to increasingly domain-specific further down in
the hierarchy (Chandrasekaran et al., 1999). The most important portion in domain
ontologies is class level, a set of basic glossaries, which provide reasoning basis for
specific incidents. A reasonable class layer is the key to improve the efficiency and
precision of information search. Figure 3 shows the top-level class model of ATM
domain.
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The ATM
domain
ontology

Weather
Navigation Aircraft Person Aerodrome Airline ACC
Information

Figure 3. The Top-level Class Model of ATM Domain.

Construction of the ATM domain ontology
In this paper, we use Protégé 3.1 as the ATM domain ontology development tool.
The Protégé software-engineering methodology provides a clear division between
domain ontologies and domain-independent problem-solvers that, when mapped to
domain ontologies, can solve application tasks. The Protégé approach allows domain
ontologies to inform the total software-engineering process and for ontologies to be
shared among a variety of problem-solving components. Protégé is developed by
Stanford Medical Informatics of Stanford University. Protégé 3.1 is an open source
ontology editor, which is written in Java. It provides users with a favorable
interfacial and similar to Windows application style, for a more convenient study and
application. Ontological structure is displayed as a three-level directory structure in
Protégé. The user can click on the appropriate item to edit classes, subclasses,
attributes, instances and so on. It allows the user to design domain models at the
conceptual level, so ontology engineers do not need to understand the specific
ontology representation language. Protégé supports multiple inheritance, as well as
new data consistency checks, and has strong scalability.
In Protégé the main task of ontology development is editing classes, subclasses,
attributes, instances and so on. Figure 4 shows the basic class level of ATM domain
ontology, the instances of ATM domain is edited in the bottom-level class. The user
can define the class and instances in the edit window, and check the relation between
classes in the structure view window.
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a. Edit window b．Structure view window

Figure 4. Layer of ATM Domain Ontology Classes.
The relationships of ontologies are the inter-linked bonds between the classes and
the instances. There are four semantic relationships between the terms in the domain
ontologies: synonym, super ordinate, hyponym and positive association. The
definition of slot generally falls into four categories in the Protégé:
Part-of: expresses the relationships between the part and entire concepts.
Kind-of: expresses the inheritance relationships between the concepts, similar to
the relationships between the parent class and subclass.
Instance-of: expresses the relationships between the concepts and the instances of
the concepts, similar to the relationships between objects and classes.
Attribute-of: expresses that a concept is the property of another concept.
In order to more accurately associate with classes and instances, we can also edit
the custom attribute in the Protégé. Protégé 3.1 provides an OWL syntax table which
corresponds relationship between symbols and OWL elements, as shown in Table 1.
Table 1. OWL Syntax Table.

Protégé 3.1 can directly generate the OWL code so that an ontology is more
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vulnerably edited and processed by the third-party software. For example, we define
the relationship of "lease" and "belong". After attributing the relationship between
class and instance association, we achieve the OWL code as follows:
<leaser>
<CCA rdf:ID="CCA1511">
<rdfs:comment rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string"
> Air China Flight 1511 </rdfs:comment>
<leasehold rdf:resource="#ZBBB"/>
</CCA>
</leaser>
<own>
<Gate_Location rdf:ID="NO9">
<rdfs:comment rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string"
>No.9 bays </rdfs:comment>
<owned rdf:resource="#ZBBB"/>
</Gate_Location>
</own>
<rdfs:comment rdf:datatype="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#string"
> Beijing Capital International Airport </rdfs:comment>
The code indicates: Air China Flight 1511 leases Beijing Capital International
Aerodrome and Beijing Capital International Aerodrome owns No. 9 bays. The
self-defined relationship makes the instances and classes of ontologies much more
flexibility in association.
Application of ATM Domain Ontology
It cannot associate all of the classes and instances together with simple or more
complex attribute definition in Protégé 3.1 since the application of ATM domain
ontology is based on knowledge reasoning. The Protégé tool is not an embedded
reasoning tool, which can implement reasoning itself, but it is able to take advantage
of plug-in technology to connect the external inference engine to the reasoning
modules of ATM systems.
We can use the Jena to implement reasoning capabilities and use Jena API
(Application Program Interface) to implement the connection between ontologies and
ATM system. Jena is a software tool developed by Brian McBride and others of HP
originated in SIRPACAPI’s work. Jena is a semantic web application used to build
Java framework, which provides the interface methods of RDF, RDFs and OWL and
provides a rule-based programming environment. The inference engine of ATM
domain ontology generally includes: Similarity-based ontology reasoning,
relation-based ontology reasoning and case-based reasoning. We can implement
reasoning through the Jena API to read and parse OWL code according the compiled
java programs.
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CONCLUSION
This article researches the application of ontologies in ATM domain, reasonably
analyzing the ATM domain ontology modeling. Ontological theory, a fundamental
solution to information sharing and integration issues, provides technical support for
the network and automation development of ATM system. The main defect is that
ontologies could not be fully generated automatically, and the initial construction of
ontologies should be edited manually.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors would like to thank for support from National Natural Science
Foundation of China (No. 60832011) and Special Fund from the Collegiate Basic
Scientific Research Bursary of CAUC (No. ZXH2009D004).
REFERENCES
Baumgartner, N., Retschitzegger, W., and Schwinger, W. (2007). “Application
scenarios of ontology-driven situation awareness systems.” In Proceedings
of the IEEE Conference on Information, Decision, and Control (IDC),
Adelaide, Australia, 291-295.
Chandrasekaran, J, Josephson, R., and Benjamins, R. (1999). “What are ontologies,
and why do we need them?” IEEE Intelligent Systems, 20-26.
Heflin, J., and Hendler, J. (2000). “Dynamic ontologies on the web.” Proceedings of
the Seventeenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-2000),
Menlo Park (CA): AAAI/MIT Press, 443-449.
Juha, M. A., Annamari, R., Marko, S., and et al. (2007). “Designing web services in
health information systems.” Process to Application Level International
Journal of Medical Informatics,7(6):89-95.
Lin, P., and Jiang, Z. (2005). “Research on the comparison of ontology engineering.”
Computer Engineering, 31(4):6-8
Neches, R., Fikes, R.E. and et al. (1991). “Enabling technology for knowledge
sharing.” AI Magazine, 12 (3): 36-56.
Resch, B., Calabrese, F., and Ratti, C. (2007). “An approach towards a real-time data
exchange platform system architecture.” Senseable City Lab, Boulder, CO
80305, USA.
Studer, R., Benjamins, V. R., and Fensel, D. (1998). “Knowledge engineering,
principles and methods.” Data and Knowledge Engineering, 25 (1-2):
161-197.
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Countermeasures of Integrated Transportation System in Asia

Caixia XIE1

1
Institute of Science Technology and Society, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang
453007, China; PH (0373)3326881; e-mail: cxxie68991@163.com

ABSTRACT
With the development of market modernizing and economy globalizing,
sharing inner advantages and realizing advantageous situations are important to the
economy of a certain region. In Pan-Asian countries, the distribution of resources
and technology is unbalanced, as some Asian countries own abundant natural
resources without advanced technology, while some countries have developed
industry but fewer resources. Therefore, it is more important to share the advantages
in Pan-Asian countries. However, this cooperation should not be made at the cost of
convenient transportation. To improve the economic and political status of Asia, we
will work to reduce the cost and guarantee the security and efficiency of our product.
This paper aims to study the sufficiency and necessity of integrated transportation in
Asia, and make adjustments accordingly. These countermeasures will play important
roles in the economic development of Asia.

INTRODUCTION
Since the 1980’s, the economic conglomeration development of North
America, Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific has been accelerating. The mutual
competition among them has intensified to form new patterns of interdependence and
mutual competition ranges. For the Asian area, lagged construction of transportation
infrastructure is the major barrier that hinders its economic development (Chen et al.,
1999). Particularly, with the promotion of the political and economic status of Asia in
the 21st century, internal communication is closer and their internal commodity
circulation and personnel mobility is more important; thus transportation
development is more crucial than ever before. Therefore, Pan-Asian countries are
promoting the development and cooperation of the regional transportation industry.
However, the delayed construction of an actual transportation infrastructure is
the common question which Asian areas face. As a result of historical fund shortages,
the construction of a transportation infrastructure in Asian countries is rather hard,
with existing transportation lines challenging the process further. This hinders the
economic development for local and even national development. Therefore, the
establishment of security and a quick Pan-Asian transportation system is the primary
situation to be deliberated upon by Asian countries (Gao, 2005).
Fortunately, this issue has already been brought to the attention of various
governments. At present, transportation industry cooperation of Pan-Asian countries
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is developing rapidly. The Southeast Asia corridor of Pan-Asian railroad has already
expedited the construction process, receiving the honor of being known as the “gold
corridor,” with completion set for 2015 (refer to figure 1). The lengths of the
Northeast Asia corridor, South Asia corridor and Central Asia to the Caucasus
corridor are 32500 kilometers, 22600 kilometers and13200 kilometers respectively.
After ten years of joint efforts among Chinese, Burmese, Laos and Thai, the Lancang
River - Mekong River has also been a pathway for navigation (since June of 2008). .

Figure 1. Southeast Asia corridor of Pan-Asian railroad plan.

Integrated transportation system is a comprehensive supply system, which various

transportation supply modes cooperate mutually and interact in the macro economy
field. Its goal is to meet with demand for transportation industry of the entire society,
and to obtain the maximum economic efficiency and social efficiency with the
minimum investment (Wang, 1999).
Each transportation mode has its own superiorities and, need to be
coordinated with other transportation modes This paper first analyzes the
characteristics of various transportation modes, and then proposes the conception of
Pan-Asian integrated transportation in view of the situation.

ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF VARIOUS TRANSPORTATION

MODES
Railway, highway, waterway, and air transportation are four of the most
common ways to travel. This section will analyze technical features of them
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respectively, including their respective superiorities and inferiorities in order to offer

rational allocation, and obtain the maximum economic efficiency and social
efficiency with minimum investment.

Technical characteristics of railway transportation

Railway transportation has been around for decades, and remains present due
to its own characteristics.
The railway has many advantages: its average haul distance is long, line
delivery and traffic capacity is big, versatility and continuity is good, the restriction
and influence of weather is small, transportation velocity is quick, and transportation
costs are low. The many continental bridges demonstrate these superiorities.
However, disadvantages must also be acknowledged. Investments are quite
large, and construction costs are high, bringing a tedious process which requires a lot
of work and product transportation.
Therefore, the railway transportation suits long-distance transport of bulk
cargoes, mainly shouldering the function of transportation corridor for cargo with
large capacity and high velocity.

Technical characteristics of highway transportation

Highways are convenient and flexible, good for high-speed movements and
are and efficiency. The turnover of capital is quick, and in view of the fact that road
transportation status and the rate of return are high among five transport modes, fund
recycling is quick.
The inferiorities of highway include high unit transportation cost, bad
movement endurance, large oil consumption, and heavy noise and pollution.
Additionally, on-time reliability and convenience of passenger transportation is not
optimistic, with rate of traffic accident also high.
We can see from the above analysis, “the surface effect” is more remarkable
and the highway transportation is an important way to connect the other transport
modes.

Technical characteristics of waterway transportation

The waterway transportation, including the inland waterway and the sea
transportation, is a traditional transport mode, which plays an irreplaceable role in
the current international goods traffic.
The superiorities of waterway mainly contain: ship’s capability and the route
traffic capacity is the biggest; its potential is so big that the volume a
10-thousand-ton steamboat carries is equivalent to 200 compartments transported by
railway, and we can almost say that capacity of ocean vessel is not limited; the
transportation cost is low; it can conserve energy (compared with ship, train,
automobile) that average fuel per ton cargo consumes (according to standard coal
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computation): 2 kg by ship, 12 kg by train, 40 kg by road, and 800 kg by air; cost

efficiency is considerable, because the routes are almost born in nature and does not
take the land resources, but the strong transport capacity is its main superiority.
The inferiorities of waterway mainly include: the navigation speed is slow,
and its speed is 20-60 km/h; it has the poor mobility and usually needs other
transport mode for transshipment, therefore there are many transfers or reprints
process in the transportation; the influence of geographical position and climatic
conditions is big.
Because its transport capacity, energy conservation and environmental
protection characteristics, especially since the development of container service,
waterway transportation has been the hot spot in the multi-model combined
transport.

Technical characteristics of air transportation

The air transportation is a newer mode of transportation which arises at the historic
moment along with the highly effective displacement of personnel and commodity,
and the time value it created is beyond measurement.
The superiorities of air transportation mainly contain: the speed is quick, in
addition its route is usually straight lines (thus its efficiency is strong); the mobility is
flexible, and generally not restricted by geographical qualification; cost efficiency is
immediate and significant, and air transportation preparatory work mainly contains
airport construction and airplane purchase.
The inferiorities of air transportation mainly include: it has the poor volume
and load-carrying capacity; the cost and transportation charges are higher than other
transport modes; it is restricted by the climatic conditions to a certain extent; its
superiority of quick speed can’t show up in the short haul.
In view of the above technical characteristics of the air transportation, this
transport mode is mainly suitable for the transportation of goods with high value or
transportation of long-distance passenger.

Technical characteristics of pipeline transportation

History of pipeline transportation is also glorious, and it mainly transports the easily
running commodity up to now. With the development of technology, it is possible to
realize transporting solid commodity.
The superiorities of pipeline transportation mainly contain: The transportation
volume is so big that a pipeline with 720 m caliber may transport 20,000,000 tons
crude oil one year, which is equivalent to the volume a single-track railway
transported; land used is few and the haul is a short cut because the major pipeline
buries in underground, which makes influence of geographical be small, and it can be
built in straight line; The continuity has good performance, may get rid of the
weather effect, work with all-weather; The energy consumption and the expense is
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lowest, working under seals-up environment, the transportation is safety, the

pollution is least; for Pipeline integrity, easy to realize the remote control, the
automaticity is high.
The inferiorities of pipeline transportation mainly include: the goods
transported is only restricted in the oil, the gas, the coal tar, the pulp and so on; the
flexibility is poor, it will increase transportation cost obviously when the
transportation volume reduces to a certain scope.
Therefore in the area where fluid resources are abundant, the pipeline
transportation is the first choice to transport.

Summary
In summary, each transport mode has its own superiorities and inferiorities.
For convenience, this paper arranges 5 kinds of transport modes according to their
technical characteristics (refer to Table 1).

Table 1. technical characteristics comparison of 5 transport modes.

Transportation mode railway highway waterway air pipeline
Transportation capacity 2 4 1 5 3
Maximum speed 2 3 4 1 --
Universality 2 1 3 4 5
Continuity 2 1 5 4 3
Mobility 3 4 1 2 5
Unit cost 3 4 1 5 2
Energy consumption 3 1 4 5 2
Benefit rate of fixed 3 1 4 5 2
assets

Reasonable integrated transportation system will cause each transport mode

to enhance its superiorities and avoid inferiorities, to cause the least transfer, the
lowest cost, the highest efficiency, thus display overall benefits of transportation
industry to the greatest degree.

NECESSITY AND FEASIBILITY OF PAN-ASIAN INTEGRATED

TRANSPORTATION
Necessity of Pan-Asian integrated transportation
From the above analysis on technical characteristics of 5 transport modes we can
know that any transport mode have both superiorities and inferiorities. The
Pan-Asian area cannot solely emphasize on one transport mode, e.g. that Pan-Asian
railways want to realize the door-to-door transportation, and it has to cooperate with
other transport modes. Therefore we make full use of every mode in order to
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complement one another and develop side by side and manifest the overall
superiority.
With the development of the economic integration and economic
globalization, more Asian countries are paying attention to exchanges and
cooperation. Generally speaking, international economic cooperation and divisions
of labor can make full use of resources, as well as promote the region’s cohesive
force and the overall competitive power to an enormous degree. Once transportation
passes, all things are popular. We can see from the historical and present situation of
various regions, raw materials’ and finished product’s development and
transportation, personnel flowing all take the integrated transportation as the
foundation (Cheng, 2003).
In addition, many forest and mineral resources are located in the faraway
interior areas. In view of impoverished backwardness areas, Pan-Asian integrated
transportation should develop side by side, and complexity of geographical position
is also the development mixed transport's material effect factor.
Feasibility of Pan-Asian integrated transportation
We can see clearly from the Asian economic crisis of 1998 and the global financial
crisis of 2008 that regional economic cooperation is the key solution to the problems.
At present, foreign exchange reserve quantity of Asian countries is far beyond the
most superior level. At the end of June 2008, the Chinese foreign exchange reserve
had surpassed 1,800 billion US dollars. Therefore, rich countries, which have many
foreign exchange reserves, have the suitable capital to take the initiative to develop
the Pan-Asian integrated transport. Various countries, particularly the poorer ones,
are glad to invest in the transportation fields in order to promote local economic
potentiality and enhance commodity circulation and personnel mobility.
When technological revolutions are applied in the transportation field, they
can simplify the commodity circulation link and raise the commodity circulation
efficiency. Therefore, hardware revolution in transportation profession of various
countries can create advantage conditions to realize integrated transport
Economic globalization and market modernization also require the
cooperation of various countries. Therefore, production processing of raw materials
and consumption of finished products must base on the highly effective transport
network.
Therefore, it is time to develop Pan-Asian integrated transportation and it is
also urgent from the angle of promoting economic development.

ANALYSES ON PAN-ASIAN INTEGRATED TRANSPORT

Various governments play a positive service role
One of the important internal functions of the government is to organize the
economic construction, promote socio-economic development, and raise the
efficiency of workers and living standards in order to create good social and natural
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environment for society development. One of the important external functions of the
government is to develop international exchange and cooperation.
Therefore, various governments in Pan-Asian region must adopt the positive
cooperation instead of the local protection, thus initiating the inside and outside
commodity exchange and mobility of personnel. Encouraging a seamless
engagement between local transport network and exterior transport network brings
technological exchanges and mobile commodity.
Governments must strengthen the region cooperation, maintain a positive
stable investment environment, release preferential policies and introduce funds to
encourage software and hardware construction of transportation in order to lead
economic development.

Expands the financing channel, attracts investment

Funding is the key question in developing Pan-Asian integrated transportation.
However, the relatively deficient and idle fund has been puzzling the communities.
Therefore, to develop Pan-Asian integrated transportation, the financing channel
must be expanded to attract investment. Financing includes absorbing currency and
material object fund investment, intangible asset investments and raising fund from
outstanding share.
First, a strive for financial investment, as public utility, after undergoing the
feasibility study, investing the construction is taken for granted by the government,
and the financial investment is the important investment source.
Next, attract the domestic and foreign financial organ fund, release
transportation bond to raise folk disperses capital and encourage the Private
enterprise to involve in the transportation domain. This aspect must firstly form the
cohesive force, constructing overall superiority to attract investor's involvement.
Display comprehensive strength of integrated transport and attract outside to develop
locals in order to bring more traffic flows, thus recycle the cost and reduce the profit
cycle as soon as possible.
Leveraged lease is also one financing way, and it both can help absorb
“funds” and “infrastructure”. According to the lease contract, the complete rents must
pay in the time by stages according to the agreement way. After the renting
expiration, the investing company may decide to relet, purchase or surrender of
contract.
In brief, all the countries must establish the multi-channel financing patterns
and attract investments, thus decrease the risk.

Reasonable establishment of large-scale logistics center

Transport modes like railway and water transportation mainly suit the long-distance
bulk cargoes transportation, and must have the sufficient source of goods. Thus, we
need to establish the large-scale physical distribution center or the key position center.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1496
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The reasonable physical distribution center can reduce railway's grouping greatly,
goods transferring and other extra work.
According to the economic region plan principle, the physical distribution
center must serve for the development of regional economies must be satisfied with
economic geography feasibility and region distributed uniform principle.
First of all, the physical distribution center needs to satisfy the city and
economy, producing efficient agricultural and industrial profits. Next, it must have
the full influence and radiating power in order to make the physical distribution
highly effective and convenient. Moreover, it must be guaranteed that it has a
sufficient source of goods to carry on the collection and distribution, and we must
also guarantee that the neighboring physical distribution campus radiation and the
area of influence are not redundant and overlapping, as it would affect the loading
rate.

Reasonable disposition of various transport modes

For the freight transportation structure, the Pan-Asian areas may be divided into three
types: one kind is which the self-sufficiency degree of domestic resources is high, the
industry and agriculture is developed, and the transport network is perfect; Another
kind where the industry is developed, but the self-sufficiency degree of resources is
not high, and the massive raw materials and fuel depend on the overseas input; the
last with undeveloped industry, but the energy is abundant, and its raw material can
be exported to other countries and areas.
In view of above, the Pan-Asian area may be connected by integrated
transport, fully show up the superiority of joint forces. Its development direction may
refer to Chinese development direction: The establishment takes the railroad as the
backbone, the road as a foundation, makes full use of the inland river, coastal and
ocean shipping's resources, develops the aviation enterprise positively, develops the
pipeline transportation with joint forces, and forms integrated transport network
system.
Through the mobility of roads, all scopes of specific region and the physical
distribution center are connected fully. Railway and water transportation provides a
superiority to carry on the cargo the inside and outside collections and distributions
for long distances; In the areas of abundant liquid or gas, the country can adopt the
pipeline or the ships to transport goods; Precise instruments or valuable scan of
goods be transported by highway and aviation together in order to be efficient. For
areas further away, China must consider using the highway to bridge connections to
the outside.
In general, under the massive fund safeguard, by balance function of the
large-scale logistics center between supply and demand, once Pan-Asian various
governments work together, a standardized integrated transport system and a
seamless engagement system of the flood and field combined transport will appear.
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CONCLUSION
The 6 essential factors of transportation demand are: flow capacity, flow
direction, flow distance, flow speed, transportation charges, and transportation
demand structure. Passenger transport mainly considers factors such as effectiveness,
security, and price. While freight transport mainly considers factors such as
imbalance of natural resource location, the contradiction between resources habitat
and productive forces layout (Guan, 2002). The integrated transportation can display
superiorities of all transportation modes fully, and carries on the reasonable
disposition in view of essential factors of transportation demand.
Transportation is the foundation that connects production, assignment,
exchanges and expense. Economic development is to be followed by the sharp
increase of demand for spatial displacement of human and cargo, with economic
development inevitably taking the consummation and enhancement of transportation
system as a premise.
The basic functions of transportation progress are expanding the market,
driving the division of labors, and enhancing productive forces. Consummation and
development of the Pan-Asian integrated transportation system may cause the
industries to gather in the superior cities firstly, and then extend along the main lines
of communication and other important infrastructures, subsequently carrying on the
radioactive proliferation to the periphery areas. Over time, development and
construction, industry belts which are comprised of various kinds of industries,
commercial and financial organizations, and so on will be formed.

REFERENCES
Chen, Y., and Shao, Z. (1999). Economics of transportation, China Communications
Press, Peking.
Gao, F. (2005). Investment of transportation infrastructure and economic increase,
China financial and economic publishing house, Peking.
Wang, W. (1999). Principle of transport investment and pricing, China
Communications Press, Peking.
Cheng, Y. (2003). Comprehensive transportation, China Communications Press,
Peking.
Guan, C. (2002). New horizon economics of transportation, China Communications
Press, Peking.

.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1498
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Reinforcement Learning On-Ramp Metering

with or without Complete Information

Xingju WANG1,2, Guifeng GAO1,2, Shaofang WEN1,2, and Toshihiko MIYAGI3

1
School of Traffic and Transportation, Shijiazhuang Railway University, P.O. Box
050043, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China; PH +86(311)87936027; FAX
+86(311)87935516; email: xingjuwang@gmail.com
2
Traffic Safety and Control Laboratory of Hebei Province, P.O. Box 050043,
Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China; PH +86(311)87936027; FAX +86(311)87935516;
email: xingjuwang@gmail.com
3
Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, P.O. Box 9808578,
Sendai, Japan; PH +81(22)795-7495; FAX +81(22)795-7495; email:
toshi_miyagi@plan.civil.tohoku.co.jp

ABSTRACT
This paper discusses the congestion problem on highways and how ramp
metering is used to alleviate this problem. It also gives an overview of the
reinforcement learning ramp metering (RLRM) without and with complete
information. RLRM is an Artificial Intelligence local-feedback control algorithm
that adjusts the metering rate to keep the jam density of the on-ramp at a
pre-specified level. RLRM uses reinforcement learning regulation to maintain a
desired level of traffic density, or the target density, which is usually chosen to be
the critical density or jam density. Numerical simulation experiment showed when
effective reinforcement learning ramp metering without complete information is
completed in the on-ramp section, traffic confusion can be prevented in advance and
smooth traffic flow can be provided.
INTRODUCTION
Increasing dependence on car-based travel has led to the daily occurrence of
recurrent and non recurrent freeway congestions not only in the China but also
around the world. Congestion on highway forms when the demand exceeds capacity.
Recurrent congestion reduces substantially the available infrastructure capacity at
rush hour, i.e., at the time this capacity is most urgently needed, causing delays,
increased environmental pollution, and reduced traffic safety.
Since new construction is often not feasible or insufficient to significantly
reduce congestion, the transition from inefficient to optimal traffic conditions can be
achieved if the conventional use of the freeway infrastructure is improved by
suitable control actions such as ramp metering, real-time speed control, and other.
Ramp metering is one of the most widely used control measures that are
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1499
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historically employed in freeway networks. Ramp metering is a direct and efficient

way to control and upgrade highway traffic by regulating the number of vehicles
entering the highway. The rate of metering is calculated depending on the specific
strategy deployed.
Ramp metering aims to maintain uninterrupted, non congested flow on the
highway, thereby providing increase in mainline throughout due to avoidance or
reduction of congestion duration. According to Papageorgiou and others, ramp
metering is divided roughly as the reacted type and the preceded type ramp metering
(Papageorgiou, 2002). The reacted type ramp metering uses the measured value of
real time. The preceded type ramp metering of cover a long time and maintain the
optimal traffic state in a highway network transport demand and on the basis of a
forecasting model. Moreover, in optimization of the whole highway network, the
combination ramp metering of using the reacted type ramp metering in address is
also possible.
The reacted type ramp metering is divided into a part type and a cooperated
type. Address reaction type control is the technique of updating control using the
measured value of traffic on each ramp. On the other hand, cooperated type reaction
type control is the technique of updating control using the measured value of the
traffic of a main line road. Although it can say that it is generally easy to use the
direction of local reaction type control from an aspect of practical use, under the
traffic congestion state, the way of cooperated type reaction type control is proved to
be effective compared with local reaction type control (Papageorgiou, 1997).
DC (Demand-Capacity), OCC (Occupancy), ALNEA (Papageorgiou, 1991),
etc. are among the well-known local response type ramp metering. DC and OCC are
the ramp metering which set up a parameter based on the measured value of upper
transport demand capacity and main line occupancy, respectively. ALNEA is the
ramp metering which sets up the private-use rate of an on-ramp based on the
measured value of main line traffic. ALINEA has an example of application in some
countries in Europe, and is made highly validated as compared with DC and OCC.
However, since it opts for control according to the traffic state near an on-ramp,
there is a problem that the traffic congestion produced downstream from the
highway cannot be taken into consideration. In order to solve this problem, Iwata,
Tsubota, and Kawashima have proposed the ramp metering technique using the
predicted value by a traffic simulator (Iwata, 2006), but some problems are left
behind. By the ramp metering technique of Iwata, Tsubota, and Kawashima, only the
opening-and-closing pattern of the ramp cannot be considered and the amount of
inflow of the on-ramp it is not necessarily made into the controlled object.
Furthermore, although the ramp metering technique using prediction by the
simulator within unit time is applied using a simulation, traffic congestion traffic,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1500
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prolonged optimization, etc. must be taken into consideration, or the optimal control
function is required. Reinforcement learning ramp metering based on traffic
simulation (Wang, 2007) with desired speed was proposed by Wang and Miyagi
(Wang, 2009).
The purpose of this research is to propose reinforcement learning ramp
metering without and with complete information.
THE REINFORCEMENT LEARNING RAMP METERING
Reinforcement Learning is a kind of a machine learning treating the
problem as which the agent under a certain environment determines the action that
should observe and take the present state. An agent gets reward from environment
by choosing action. Reinforcement learning learns a policy from which most reward
is obtained through a series of actions. The action reclaims the strange learning
domain, and action using a known learning domain can be chosen with sufficient
balance.

Observation Section Observation Section

Figure 1. Reinforcement Learning ramp metering topology.

As shown in figure 1, qin is the mainline upper stream traffic; r is the ramp
inflow traffic; qout is the main line downstream traffic; dm is the mainline upper
stream density; dr is the ramp density; vm is the mainline upper stream average
speed; and vr is the ramp average speed.
q=qin+r-qout (1)
In consideration of the stay traffic volume q, upper traffic is updated by the
following formula.
qin t+1 ← qin t+1 + q (2)

Now, the upper traffic qin can be obtained by observation and treats this as

a known amount (state variable). The ramp inflow traffic volume r is set with a
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1501
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selection action variable as an amount of control. Moreover, qout is the reward

accompanying action selection. ρ L is the traffic density on gap L.

t r af f i c vol ume qt +1
ρL = = (3)
gap L
Reinforcement Learning is a kind of a machine learning treating the
problem as which the agent under a certain environment determines the action that
should observe and take the present state. An agent gets reward from environment
by choosing action. Reinforcement learning learns a policy from which most reward
is obtained through a series of actions. The action reclaims the strange learning
domain, and action using a known learning domain can be chosen with sufficient
balance (see (14)).

Figure 2. Block diagram for reinforcement learning ramp metering.

According to Figure 2, the framework of reinforcement learning ramp
metering is explained briefly. The base element which constitutes reinforcement
learning ramp metering is as follows.
(1) Ramp inflow selection model: The rule which opts for ramp inflow.
(2) Outflow function: Outflow which can be gained in a certain main inflow.
(3) Value function: Total of the outflow which can be gained over the future.
(4) Environmental model: What predicts the following main inflow and the
following outflow.
The reinforcement learning ramp metering with complete information
A reforcement learning ramp metering (agent with complete information) faces a
Markov decision problem (MDP). In addition, since main traffic inflow and ramp
inflow’s set is S , A ( q i n ) ( q i n t ∈ S ) is finite. We typically use a set of matrices
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1502
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R qr in q in ' = P r{ q in t + 1 = q in ' | q in t = q in , rt = r } to describe the transition

structure. Here, traffic outflow at time t is obtained by

' = E{qoutt +1 | qint = qin, rt = r, qint +1 = qin '}

r
Rqinqin
.
+
However, ∀qin ∈ S , ∀r ∈ A(qin), ∀qin ' ∈ S , and if maximum outflow V or Q is
* *

given by Bellman formula, we can obtain:

V π (qin) = max E{qoutt +1 + λV * ( qint +1 ) qint = qin , rt = r}
r

   = max ∑ Pqinqin
r
⎡ π
⎤
' ⎣ qoutqinqin' + λV ( qin ) ⎦
r '
r
qin '
(4)
or
 Q* (qin, r ) = E{qoutt +1 + λ max Q* (qint +1 , r ') | qint = qin, rt = r}
r'

   = ∑P r
qinqin ' [Rr
qinqin ' + λ max Q* (qin ', r ')]
r'
qin '
(5)
rπ
If we can obtain transit probability Pqinqin ' and next outflow V (qin) with MDP’s
complete information ramp metering. For convenience, we assume that traffic
outflow is finite (i.e. there are only finitely). Moreover, traffic outflow can be given
by Numerical mathematic programming.
The reinforcement learning ramp metering without complete information
Supposed markov decision process with complete information is given in
2.1 section.But,this argument is untenable in fact. We can obtain ramp metering rate
by using evaluation of the experience without complete information. Since transit
probability is not necessary, we can rewrite (4) as

V π (qint ) = V π (qint ) + at [qoutt − V π (qint )] (6)

Where, qout t is real time traffic outflow at time t, constant at is step size
parameter.
Equation (5) can be written in the following equation:
Q(qin t ,rt ) ← Q(qin t ,rt ) + a t [ qout+ λ E{Q(qin t+1 ,rt+1|s t )} -Q(qin t ,rt )]
(7)
IF expected value of ramp inflow is not given.We also replace
qout+ λ ∑π (qin t ,rt )Q(qin t+1,rt ) -Q(qin t ,rt )
qout+ λE{Q(qint+1,rt+1|st )} -Q(qint ,rt ) by a .
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1503
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⎡ ⎤
Q(qin t ,rt ) ← Q(qin t ,rt ) + a t ⎢qout+ λ ∑ π (qin t ,rt )Q(qin t+1 ,rt ) -Q(qin t ,rt ) ⎥
⎣ a ⎦ (8)
We suppose that the probability of on-ramp control policy π can be
obtained in equation (8).Here,it is difficult to satiety the initial condition. The values
∑ π (qin ,r )Q(qin
t t t+1 ,rt )
a associated with an optimal on-ramp control policy are

called the optimal ramp inflow and are often written as maxQ(qin t+1 ,r) . We get

Q(qin t ,rt ) ← Q(qin t ,rt ) + a t [ qout+ λmaxQ(qin t+1,r) -Q(qin t ,rt )]

(9)
where
∞

∑a
t =1
t =∞
(10)
∞

∑a
t =1
2
t <∞ (11)

In equation (9), the action value function Q gained by learning

approximates Q* (the optimal action value function) directly independently of the
policy currently used. By this technique, a state action variable is updated apart from
a policy, and converging Qt on Q* by probability 1 is shown under the conditions of
the probability approximation about a step size parameter.
VERIFICATION OF THE REINFORCEMENT LEARNING RAMP
METERING
As shown in Table 1, Case was set up. In "having no control", ramp average
traffic volume is set up in 800 pcu (passenger car unit). In the case of "with control",
the optimal action brought a result shown in Table 1. If main line traffic volume
increases and it becomes 1600~1,800 pcu during traffic congestion, inflow control
will be needed for case, and the result of choosing action (600 pcu) will be obtained.
Moreover, time change of the average speed at this time is shown in figure 4. If it
continues permitting inflow by "he has no control", it will fall to 4 m/s after traffic
congestion generating, but in the case of "with control", average speed can be
increased to approximately 25 m/s. If the traffic volume exceeds 2,000 pcu, it will be
necessary to close a ramp temporarily.
The results of having seen the effect of ramp metering by passage traffic and
average travel time is shown in Table 2. If it looks at with traffic volume, it will
increase 280 pcu to Case, and a traffic congestion relaxation effect will become
15.22%. Moreover, when looked at in average travel time, it decreased for 40 (s/car
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1504
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unit), and the traffic congestion relief rate became 51.28%. When there was much
main lane traffic volume, it turned out clearly that the effect of the proposed control
measure is large.

Table 1. Selection of The Optimal Control Action.

Main line traffic Ramp traffic volume
time-axis volume pcu (passenger car unit)
C (minute) pcu (passenger car
with no control with control
a unit)
s 1.5 1200 800
e 3 1800 600
800
4.5 2200 0
6 1600 600

Table 2. The Control Effect By Traffic And Average And Travel Time.

with no with The amount Traffic congestion

Case
control control of change relief rate
Traffic volume
1840 2120 280 15.22%
( passenger car unit)

Average travel time

78 38 -40 -51.28%
(s/ car unit)

A verage speed w ith control A verage speed w ith no control

30
25
speed(m /s)

20
15
10
5
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320

tim e（ｓ）

Figure 3. Time change of average speed in case.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1505
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CONCLUSION
In order to ease the traffic congestion in the on-ramp section, the
reinforcement learning ramp metering is proven to be effective. In this research, the
simulation of the main lane upper stream traffic which changes every moment was
carried out; and the reinforcement learning ramp metering used as an optimal action
selection tool was proposed. It was checked as a result of verification that a traffic
style is carried out smoothly. As for future development, actual observational data
will be investigated and the validity of the reinforcement learning ramp metering
will be verified.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The Project Sponsored by the Scientific Research Foundation for the
Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars, the Ministry of Education.
The Project Sponsored by the Scientific Research Foundation, Education
Department of Hebei Province. (Grant No: 2009154)
The Project Sponsored by the Scientific Research Foundation for the
Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars, Personnel Department of Hebei Province
The Project Sponsored by the Scientific Research Foundation, Traffic
Safety and Control Laboratory of Hebei Province. (Grant No: 2009KF05)
REFERENCES
Iwata, M. (2006). “The comparative study about the ramp metering in high way”
Proceedings of JSTE, Vol.26, pp. 73-76.
Papageorgiou, M. (1991). “A local feedback control law for on-ramp metering”
Transportation Research Record 1320, 58-64.
Papageorgiou, M. (1997). “ALINEA local ramp metering: summary of field results.”
Transportation Research Record 1603, 90-98.
Papageorgiou, M. (2002). “Freeway ramp metering: an overview.” IEEC Conference
on Intelligent Transportation System 3,271-281.
Richard, S.S. (1998). Section 6: TD Learning. Reinforcement Learning: An
introduction, The MIT Press.
Wang, X.J., Miyagi, T., and Ying, J.Q. (2007). “A simulation model for traffic
behavior at merging sections in highways” CD-ROM Proceedings of
Second International Conference on Innovative Computing, Information
and Control, No.A04-03.
Wang, X.J., Miyagi, T., Takagi, A., and Ying, J.Q. (2007). “Analysis of the effects
of acceleration lane length at merging sections by using
micro-simulations” CD-ROM Proceedings of The 7th International
Conference of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Conference, No.
100604.
Wang, X.J., Liu, B.H., Niu, X.Q., and Miyagi, T. (2009). “Reinforcement learning
control for on-ramp metering based on traffic simulation” CD-ROM
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1506
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Proceedings of 2009 International Conference of Chinese Transportation

Professionals, 2071-2077.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1507
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

A Multi-objective Optimization Model and a Decision-making Method for

Traffic Signal Control

Weiliang ZENG1, Zhaocheng HE2 and Ningning CHEN3

1
Graduate; Intelligent Transportation Research Centre, Sun Yat-sen University,
Guangzhou 510275, China; email: 569893351@qq.com
2
Associate professor; Intelligent Transportation Research Centre, Sun Yat-sen
University, Guangzhou 510275, China; email: hezhch@mail.sysu.edu.cn
3
PhD Candidate; Intelligent Transportation Research Centre, Sun Yat-sen University,
Guangzhou 510275, China; email: chnnsysu@163.com

ABSTRACT
The objective function plays a crucial role in traffic signal control systems. A new
method for establishing the objective function is proposed, which uses the relative
indices compared with a performance index of classical signal timing such as F-B. A
Pareto-optimal front is obtained by solving a multi-objective optimization model
with genetic algorithm, and the correlations of performance indices are analyzed. The
most representative performance indices are selected as the final sub-objectives of
the model. Furthermore, a fuzzy membership function is used to express the
decision-maker’s preferences on the evaluation indices. Finally, the most satisfactory
solution is obtained from the Pareto-optimal solution set. An isolated intersection is
calculated as a case study, and the results illustrate that the proposed method
expresses the decision-making preference of each objective more intuitively and
makes the control target more clearly.

INTRODUCTION
Multi-objective optimization is the main developing trend of traffic signal
control. Nowadays, urban traffic engineers not only pursue a single control objective,
but also expect to control traffic flows comprehensively by adjusting a signal timing
plan automatically to achieve a comprehensive optimization on multiple objects (Li,
et al., 2009). Actually, the conflicts of different objectives will appear in the control
process, because one sub-objective optimizing may affect other sub-objectives
negatively. Thus, in order to obtain an overall optimal solution, sub-objectives need
to be coordinated.
Intersection signal timing optimization theory has been studied for more than
sixty years. Minimizing vehicle delay as the control objective was proposed first by F.
Webster and B. Cobber in the 1980s, which was called the F-B method(Webster,
1963). Amendment and supplement of F-B method was developed by R. Akcelik,
which was called the ARRB method (Akcelik, 1981). Besides vehicle delay, the
number of vehicle stops had been used as performance index. Different from F-B
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1508
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method, as long as setting different stop time compensation coefficients, different

control requirements can be satisfied (Quan, 1989). Later, Robertson et al found that
there was certain relationship among delay, stops and fuel consumption. In
TRANSYT, fuel consumption was considered as a reference index and the direct
operation cost was used in the composite objective function for the first time(Vincent,
et al., 1980). Considering the actual situation of urban traffic in China, Gu et al.
chose delay and stops as the evaluation indexes, and added vehicle capacity as one of
the sub-objectives (Gu, et al., 1998). The multi-objective function is shown below:
n
⎫
min f ( X ) = ∑ ki1 Di + ki2 H i − ki3Qi ⎪
i =1
⎪⎪
s.t. X − A ≥ 0 ⎬ (1)
n ⎪
∑
i =1
xi + li ≤ b ⎪
⎪⎭

Where ki1 , ki2 and ki3 are the weighting coefficients of vehicle delay, stop times

and capacity, respectively, where:

ki1 = si yi (1.0 − Y ) , ki2 = si yi (1.0 − Y ) , ki3 = ( 3600 / c ) Y .

The model was solved by a simulated annealing algorithm. Based on formulation(1),

weighting coefficients were modified by Yan et al, in which ki1 = 2 (1.0 − Y ) × 7 si ,
1.0 − Y c
ki2 = 7 si × , ki3 = 2Y × (Yan, et al., 2006). k1 , k2 and k3 make the
0.9 3600
comprehensive performance index focus on reducing vehicle delay and stop times in
low saturation periods while improving traffic capacity in peak periods. However, the
weighted coefficients in Equation (1) are so complex that the physical meaning is not
clear. Considering the benefits of vehicles, pedestrians and environment, Yang et al.
selected minimizing vehicle and pedestrian delay and minimizing the stops of
vehicles as the optimization objectives(Yang, et al., 2008). A multi-objective cycle
length optimization model was formulated as Equation (2).
min F ( C ) = ⎡⎣ f1 ( C ) , f 2 ( C ) , f 3 ( C ) ⎤⎦
(2)
s.t C λi ≥ gi min i = 1, 2,..., n

Where C is the cycle length of the signalized intersection. f1 ( C ) , f 2 ( C ) and

f3 ( C ) are the objective functions about average vehicle delay, average pedestrian

delay and vehicle stops respectively. The Pareto-Frontier was solved by the ant
colony optimization algorithm. However, it was not clear how to choose the
appropriate solution.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1509
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From the above, the control objectives that being mainly considered are vehicle
delay, capacity, stop times, queue length and pedestrian delay. There are many
researchers studying how to use evolutionary algorithms to solve multi-objective
model, but they rarely explore how to select the sub-objectives reasonably and
consider the user’s decision-making problem. What’s more, different control
objectives and different weights will lead to different traffic signal timing plans, so
it’s very important to select the right control objectives and choose the appropriate
weighting coefficients. Therefore, this paper will discuss the relationship among the
various evaluation indexes and suggest some reasonable indexes to establish
multi-objective model considering the balance of benefits between vehicles and
pedestrians. Besides, an urgent degree membership function of control objective is
established to express the user’s preference, which assists decision makers to choose
a satisfactory solution from Pareto solution set.
THE MATHEMATICAL DESCRIPTION OF MULTI-OBJECTIVE
OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM
A general multi-objective optimization problem can be described as a vector
function F that maps a tuple of m parameters (decision variables) to a tuple of n
objectives(Fonseca, et al., 1995). The expression is as equation(3):
⎧max y = F ( x ) = ( F ( x ) , F ( x ) ,..., F ( x ) )T
⎪⎪ 1 2 m

⎨ s.t. g i ( x ) ≤ 0, i = 1, 2,..., q (3)

⎪
⎪⎩ h j ( x ) = 0, j = 1, 2,..., p

x = ( x1 ,..., xn ) ∈ X ⊂ R n is the decision vector, X is the parameter space,

y = ( y1 ,..., yn ) ∈ Y ⊂ R m is the objective vector and Y is the objective space.

g i ( x ) ≤ 0 ( i = 1, 2,..., q ) defines q inequality constraints and hi ( x ) ≤ 0 ( i = 1, 2,..., p )

defines p equality constraints. The solution set of a multi-objective optimization

problem consists of all decision vectors for which the corresponding objective
vectors cannot be improved in any dimension without degradation in another. These
vectors are known as Pareto optimal.
MULTI-OBJECTIVE OF RELATIVE INDEX OPTIMIZATION (MORO)
MODEL
The evaluation values of different objectives cannot be compared directly
because their dimensions are different. In order to facilitate computing decision
weights, these evaluation values need to be put into relative values. Each absolute
evaluation value should be divided by a standard value which is the average level,
the highest level or the lowest level. However, it is very difficult to obtain the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1510
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maximum and minimum evaluation values since each intersection has its own
characteristics. This paper proposes another method to establish relative index, which
uses the evaluation value of classical timing plan (such as F-B) as the standard value.
The expression is defined as Equation (4).
F( x)
F0 ( x ) = (4)
FF-B ( x )

F0 ( x ) is the relative value of one evaluation index. F ( x ) is the absolute value of

one evaluation index of a new timing plan. FF-B ( x ) is the absolute value of one

evaluation index of the classical timing plan solved by F-B method. And the relative
yield ratio is defined as equation(5).
F( x)
F0 ( x ) = 1 − (5)
FF-B ( x )
For example, the relative yield ratios of vehicle delay, capacity, stop times,
queue length and pedestrian delay are selected as the control objectives. The MORO
model is defined as equation(6).

⎧ ⎛ D ⎞ ⎛ CAP ⎞ ⎛ S ⎞ ⎛ Q ⎞ ⎛ Ped ⎞
⎪max PI = k1 ⋅ ⎜ 1 − ⎟ + k2 ⋅ ⎜ − 1 ⎟ + k3 ⋅ ⎜ 1 − ⎟ + k3 ⋅ ⎜ 1 − ⎟ + k3 ⋅ ⎜ 1 − ⎟
⎪ ⎝ DF − B ⎠ ⎝ CAPF − B ⎠ ⎝ SF −B ⎠ ⎝ QF − B ⎠ ⎝ Ped F − B ⎠
⎪ s.t. g ≤ g ≤ g
⎪⎪ min i max
(6)
⎨ ∑ i max
g ≤ C
⎪
⎪ 0 ≤ kn ≤ 1
⎪
⎪
∑ kn = 1
⎪⎩

DF − B , S F − B , QF − B , CAPF − B and Ped F − B represent the vehicle delay, capacity,

stop times, queue length and pedestrian delay of F-B method respectively. gi is the

green time of phase i , g min is the minimum green time, g max is the maximum

green time, Cmax is the maximum cycle length and kn is the weighting coefficient

of sub-objective n.
OBJECTIVE SELECTION METHOD
According to different control objects, the intersection signal control objectives
can be classified into two categories, which represent the benefits of vehicles and
pedestrians respectively. The vehicle’s benefit is usually measured by vehicle delay,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1511
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stop rate, capacity and queue length while pedestrian benefit is primarily used to
measure pedestrian delay. Vehicle delay function, stop rate function, capacity
function and queue length function are formulated on the basis of calculation
methods in Highway Capacity Manual 2000 (Manual, 2000). The pedestrian delay is
calculated based on the pedestrian crossing delay model proposed by Feng et al.
(2007).
There are certain relationships existing among these five evaluation indexes,
which may be positive correlation or negative correlation. Establishing a
multi-objective function with the five objectives above and solving it with genetic
algorithm (GA), the correlation between the two objectives can be obtained in the
Pareto-optimal solution set (Sun et al., 2003). This paper adopts GA based on
weighted sum approach and tracing Pareto method (Coello, 2000, Tang et al., 2002).
It achieves a non-inferior solution at each intermediate step which is not like the
existing NSGA that generate the total Pareto set in one run. Suppose the weight
vector is k = ( k1 , k2 ) , and k1 + k2 = 1 . In order to search the nearby non-inferior

solution, the weight vector needs to be changed like ( k1 + Δ, k2 − Δ ) . Δ is the

increment of the weight value, which determines the interval of two adjacent
non-inferior solutions. In Figure 1, Point A and Point B are the endpoints of the
Pareto solution set, and non-inferior solution Point D derives from non-inferior
solution Point C through changing the weight value. If the weight vector of
non-inferior solution Point C is ( k1 , k2 ) , then the weight vector of non-inferior

solution Point D is ( k1 + Δ, k2 − Δ ) . Finally the Pareto-Front can be obtained by

changing the weighted vector combinations.

Figure 1. Weighted Sum

Approach.

Figure 2 .Traffic Flow of Study

Intersection.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1512
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Each point in Figure 1 represents a non-inferior solution and all points represent
a non-inferior solution set. The abscissa and ordinate respectively represent two
kinds of evaluation index for the non-inferior solutions. Take the intersection of Jian
Li Bao Road and Kang Le Road in Sanshui District of Foshan City in China as the
case. The traffic flow of each approach is showed in Figure 2. Figure 3 to Figure 12
are the distributions of objective values of the Pareto solution set.

Average Yield of Vehicle Capacity

Average Yield of Queue Length

0.2
Average Yield of Stop Rate

0.3 0.4
0.15
0.2 0
0.1
0.05 -0.4
0.1
0
0 -0.8
-0.05
-0.1 -0.1 -1.2

-1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4
Average Yield of Vehicle Delay Average Yield of Vehicle Delay Average Yield of Vehicle Delay

Figure 3. Vehicle Figure 4. Vehicle Figure 5. Vehicle

Delay And Stop Rate. Delay and Capacity. Delay And Queue.
Average Yield of Vehicle Capacity
Average Yield of Pedestrian Delay

Average Yield of Queue Length

0.4
0.4 0.3

0 0
0.2

-0.4 0.1 -0.4

-0.8 0 -0.8

-1.2 -0.1 -1.2

-1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 -0.1-0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
Average Yield of Vehicle Delay Average Yield of Stop Rate Average Yield of Stop Rate

Figure 6. Vehicle Figure 7. Stop Rate Figure 8. Stop Rate

Delay and Pedestrian and Capacity. and Queue.
Delay.
Average Yield of Pedestrian Delay
Average Yield of Pedestrian Delay

Average Yield of Queue Length

0.4 0.4
0.4

0 0
0

-0.4 -0.4 -0.4

-0.8 -0.8 -0.8

-1.2 -1.2 -1.2

-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Average Yield of Stop Rate Average Yield of Vehicle Capacity Average Yield of Vehicle Capacity

Figure 9. Stop Rate Figure 10. Capacity Figure 11. Capacity and
and Pedestrian Delay. and Queue. Pedestrian Delay.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1513
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Average Yield of Pedestrian Delay

0.4

-0.4

-0.8

-1.2

-1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0 0.4

Average Yield of Queue Length

Figure 12. Queue and Pedestrian Delay.

It is able to obtain Pareto optimal solutions of different weight ( kn ) groups by

solving (5) using GA. Each point from Figure 1 to Figure 12 represents an optimal
signal control plan. The abscissa and ordinate respectively represent the relative yield
ratios of two kinds of evaluation indexes, which are calculated by Equation (6).
Figure 3, Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure 6 illustrate that optimizing average
vehicle delay will deteriorate average stop rate and vehicle capacity, but it improves
queue length and average pedestrian delay. It means that vehicle delay and stop rate
cannot be optimized simultaneously, as well as capacity, but vehicle delay and queue
length or vehicle delay and pedestrian delay can be optimized at the same time.
It can be seen from Figure 7 to Figure 9 that improving average stop rate can
raise traffic capacity, but it will deteriorate queue length and average pedestrian delay
at the same time. Therefore stop rate and traffic capacity belong to non-conflicting
objectives, while stop rate and traffic capacity or queue length belong to conflicting
objectives.
Figure 10 and Figure 11 illustrate that optimizing traffic capacity results in more
queue length and more average pedestrian delay, so traffic capacity and queue length
or pedestrian delay belong to conflicting objectives.
It can be seen from Figure 12 that average pedestrian delay will be improved
when the queue length is optimized, so queue length and pedestrian delay are
non-conflicting objectives.
Too many similar and overlap evaluation indexes will make program running
slowly and inefficiently. Only neither missing information nor overlapping
information can make sure that the quality of evaluation is reliable and efficient. In
order to meet different needs of traffic control, on one hand the conflicting indexes
should be chosen as far as possible, on the other hand pedestrian benefit also should
be taken into account. Based on the analysis above, one of the following five groups
of indexes can be chosen to establish the multi-objective function: (1) vehicle delay,
traffic capacity and pedestrian delay; (2) stop rate, queue length and pedestrian delay;
(3) traffic capacity, queue length and pedestrian delay; (4) stop rate, vehicle delays
and pedestrian delay; (5) stop rate, traffic capacity and pedestrian delay.
DECISION-MAKING METHOD
The Pareto-optimal solutions can be obtained by using weighted sum approach to
solve the model. There is still the problem of choosing a particular solution from the
Pareto optimal set. A large number of non-inferior solutions cannot be directly applied
to an actual controlled intersection, and the traffic engineers need to choose the final
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1514
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

satisfactory solution from the Pareto solution set. In order to solve the above problems,
a fuzzy membership function is constructed to express the decision-maker’s
preference on the evaluation indexes, which is defined by traffic flow or traffic state.
Steps of decision-making method are as follows.
Step 1: Filter out the infeasible solutions according to the user’s acceptable range.
Step 2: Normalize the indexes to eliminate the differences in dimension and scale. If
the multi-objective decision-making problem has m sub-objectives ( F1 , F2 ,..., Fm )

and n decision-making plans ( A1 , A2 ,... An ), then the decision-making matrix

is A = ( aij ) . aij is the property value of the sub-objective( Fi ( i = 1, 2,..., m ) ) in

m×n

decision-making plan( A j ( j = 1, 2,..., n ) ). Because model (6) in this paper is a benefit

type function, the decision-making matrix A = ( aij ) can be changed into a

m×n

normalized matrix R = ( rij ) according to Equation (7).

m×n

aij − min aij

rij = (7)
max aij − min aij
Step 3: Establish a fuzzy membership function according to decision maker's
preference. It is usually difficult to give clear weight values to various sub-objectives
because of the complexity of objective things and the fuzziness of human thoughts.
And the decision maker may only provide partial information of the weight values.
But it is generally recognized that the main control objective should be to reduce the
vehicle delay in smooth state in which the traffic volume is small, balance vehicle
delay and vehicle capacity in busy traffic state, and increase vehicle capacity to
reduce the occurrence of blocking in congestion state. Figure 13 shows the membership
functions of the urgency degree of vehicle delay (U_D) and the urgency degree of
vehicle capacity (U_CAP). Similarly, the urgency degree of pedestrian delay (U_Ped)
is shown in Figure 14. The weight value of each objective is determined by its urgency
degree according to different traffic flow. Of course, the style and the thresholds of the
membership function can be adjusted by decision makers according to actual needs.

Figure 13. Membership Function Figure 14. Membership Function Curve

Curves of Vehicle Delay and of Pedestrian Delay.
Capacity.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1515
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Step 4: Calculate the comprehensive evaluation values of all Pareto solutions with the
weight vector ω = (ωD , ωCAP , ωPed ) , and choose the most satisfactory solution. The
T

expression is as equation (8).

Z = ω•R (8)
Z is the comprehensive evaluation vector. R is the normalized matrix of Pareto
solution set.
CASE STUDY
The data of experimental intersection is showed in Figure 2 above. Vehicle delay,
traffic capacity and pedestrian delay are selected to establish the multi-objective of
relative index optimization model. There are 215 groups of Pareto solutions will be
obtained by solving MORO model with the step of weighting coefficient k equaling
to 0.05( Δ =0.05). Table 1 shows the relative yield ratios of various sub-objectives of
the Pareto solution set.
Table 1. Relative yield ratios of various sub-objectives.
Objectives Vehicle delay (%) Capacity (%) Pedestrian delay (%)
Solution 1 4.72 -4.36 14.44
Solution 2 4.06 -2.20 12.70
Solution 3 4.53 -2.99 14.47
Solution 4 1.15 1.65 5.48
Solution 5 -3.05 4.58 -1.85
Select the feasible solutions from Pareto solution set and normalize the data in
Table 1. The normalized decision-making matrix is established as (9).
⎡1.000 0.000 0.999 ⎤
⎢0.992 0.792 0.980 ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢0.997 0.050 1.000 ⎥
R215×3 = ⎢ ⎥ (9)
⎢ 0.957 0.220 0.901 ⎥
⎢0.906 0.327 0.820 ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎣...... ...... ...... ⎦
Assume that the decision maker thinks that the intersection is in smooth state
when the total flow rate is less than 0.3 and it is in busy state when the total flow rate
is more than 0.8. Similarly, suppose that the pedestrian delay is not taken into
consideration when the pedestrian traffic is less than 1000 pcu/h, while decision
makers should be highly concerned about the pedestrian delay when the pedestrian
traffic is more than 5000 pcu/h. So y1 is 0.3, y2 is 0.8, q1 is 1000 and q2 is 5000

in Figure 12 and Figure 13. The normalized decision-making weight vector

is ω = ( 0.365, 0.470, 0.165 ) . The Pareto solutions are ranked according to the
T

comprehensive evaluation value that calculated by Equation (8). The final satisfactory
solution is shown in Figure 15.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1516
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Figure 15. Final Satisfactory Solution.

Compare to F-B method, the relative values of five evaluation indexes are
illustrated in Figure 16. According to the decision maker’s needs and acceptance
range, MORO model and the decision-making method improve capacity performance
and stop rate performance at the expense of a small amount of vehicle delay, queue
length and pedestrian delay, which reflect the user's preference effectively.

1.4
1.2
Relative Value

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Relative Relative Stop Relative Relative Queue Relative
Vehicle Delay Rate Capacity Pedestrian
Delay

Figure 16. Relative Evaluation Values Contrast to F-B.

CONCLUSIONS
This paper introduced a new approach of how to choose traffic signal timing
objectives and how to select the best alternatives. It is observed that average vehicle
delay, queue length and average pedestrian delay can be optimized simultaneously,
but it will deteriorate traffic capacity and stop rate at the same time. Considering the
conflicting objectives and the balance of vehicle and pedestrian, a multi-objective of
relative index optimization (MORO) model with relative vehicle delay, relative
capacity and relative pedestrian delay as the optimization objectives is presented.
A method to help the decision-makers select the final satisfactory solution is also
put forward. A fuzzy membership function is used to express the decision-maker’s
preference on the objectives. The final satisfactory solution is selected from the Pareto
solution set depending on the weighting coefficients determined by decision maker’s
preference. A case study demonstrates that MORO model and the decision-making
method meet the user's decision-making requirements flexibly and effectively.
REFERENCES
Akcelik, R. (1981). "Traffic signals: capacity and timing analysis." Australia Road
Research Board.
Coello, C. A. (2000). "An updated survey of GA-based multiobjective optimization
techniques." ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), 32(2), 143.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1517
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Feng, S. M., and Pei, Y. L. (2007). "Research on delay of pedestrian crossing."

Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology, 39(004), 613-616.
Fonseca, C. M., and Fleming, P. J. (1995). "An overview of evolutionary algorithms
in multiobjective optimization." Evolutionary computation, 3(1), 1-16.
Gu, H. Z., and Wang, W. (1998). "A global optimization simulated annealing
algorithm for intersection signal timing." Journal Of Southeast
Univwrsity(Natural Science Edition), 28(003), 68-72.
Li, R. M., and Lu, H. P. (2009). "Traffic signal control multi-object optimization
based on genetic algorithm." Journal of Chang an University(Natural
Science Edition), 29(03), 85-88.
Manual, H. C. (2000). "Highway capacity manual 2000." Transportation Research
Board, National Research Council, Washington, DC.
Quan, Y. S. (1989). "Urban traffic control." The people Traffic Press, Beijing.
Sun, D., Benekohal, R. F., and Waller, S. T. (2003). "Multi-objective traffic signal
timing optimization using non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II."
Lecture Notes In Computer Science, 2420-2421.
Tang, W. D., Guan, Z. H., and Wu, Z. Y. (2002). "A multiobjective evolutionary
algorithm based on weighted sum approach and tracing pareto method."
Journal of Northwest Sci-Tech University of Agriculture and Forestry(04).
Vincent, R. A., Mitchell, A. I., and Robertson, D. I. (1980). "User guide of TRANSYT
version 8-TRRL report LR888." Transport and Road Research Laboratory,
Crowthorne, Inglaterra.
Webster, F. V. (1963). "Traffic signals." Traffic engineering practice, 117.
Yan, Y. X., and Li, W. Q. (2006). "Ant colony optimization for signalized
intersection." Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and
Development, 23(011), 116-119.
Yang, X., Ma, Y., and Zeng, Y. "Multi-objective cycle length optimization using ant
colony optimization algorithm." American Society of Civil Engineers, 1801
Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, VA, 20191-4400, USA.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1518
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Selection of Rail Types for High-speed Railway and Heavy-haul Railway

Wang Jianxi WANG1, Xiangguo LI1, Shougang HUANG2

1
School of Civil Engineering, Shijiazhuang Railway Institute, Shijiazhuang 050043,
China; PH (86311) 8793- 5555; email: qianxi-2008@163.com (Wang JIAN-XI)
2
School of Transportation Engineering, Shijiazhuang Railway Institute, Shijiazhuang
050043, China; PH (86311) 8793- 5555; email: huangshougang@sohu.com

ABSTRACT
The test conditions for different experimenters of rail steel were analyzed from
the point of view on the influenced factors to fatigue crack expansion growth rate.
The results show that, to a certain degree, the test conditions (such as test
temperature and stress ratio) have certain uniformity. Based on these, the analysis of
differences on the fatigue crack growth rates obtained the different experimenters for
same rail steel was carried. The distributions characteristic and discrete of these
fatigue crack growth rates were obtained. The fatigue crack growth parameters for
each rail steel were fitted. Combining the comparison on fatigue crack growth
toughness of different kinds of rail steel, the paper determines the suitable for heavy
rail and high-speed rail steels. The results show that the 1100 level of online
heat-treated steel is suitable for high-speed railway and bainitic steel is suitable for
heavy-haul railway.

Rail is an important component of railway track structure, which directly bears the
enormous pressure from the wheel. Under the condition of enormous pressure, the
rail material has a great impact on the performance of the rail use. At present,
Because of the wide variety of rail, the problem of how to choose suitable types of
rail according to the characteristics of high-speed railway and heavy-haul railway is
to be an in-depth study. With the increasing of train speed and axle load, the trend of
rail failure is increasing; especially the increasing of rolling contact fatigue cracks
(Chen, 2008, Xi, 2005). Rolling contact fatigue cracks propagate transverse cracks,
and propagation of transverse cracks decreases the rail area and increases the
concentration of stress, which is easily leading to broken rails. The properties of the
growth rate of transverse crack have a great impact on the safe use of rails. The paper
provides a basis for the selection of rail for the high-speed railway and heavy-haul
railway according to their different requirements by analyzing the disparity of the
growth rate of transverse cracks for different kinds of rails.

Table 1.Test results for the fatigue crack growth rate.

Steel kinds Test Stre C m Correlat Ref.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1519
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

temper ss ion
ature ratio coeffici
ent
Grade 260 hot-rolled 20～25 0.5 1×10-11 2.957 0.8914 Silva, et al.,
rail steel 7 2003
Grade 260 hot-rolled 20～25 0.5 9×10-13 3.790 0.8909 Silva, et al.,
rail steel 9 2003
Grade 260 hot-rolled 20～25 0.5 2×10-12 3.587 0.9911 Silva, et al.,
rail steel 2 2003
Grade 260 hot-rolled 20～25 0.5 3×10-12 3.419 0.9822 Silva, et al.,
rail steel 2003
Grade 260 hot-rolled 20～25 0.5 2×10-12 3.646 0.9846 Silva, et al.,
rail steel 2003
Hot-rolled carbon SS 24 0.5 8.147×10-1 4.028 0.9814 Chen, et al.,
6
rail steel 2008
U75V hot-rolled rail 0.1 4.234×10-1 3.656 0.9772 Chen, et al.,
5
steel 2008
U71Mn hot-rolled rail 0.1 4.597×10-1 2.88 0.9887 Wang, Liu,
3
steel 2007
U71Mn hot-rolled rail 0.2 3.877×10-1 3.634 0.9911 Zhou, Xiang,
2
steel 2006
U71Mn hot-rolled rail 0.2 2.939×10-1 3.134 0.9905 Liu, Li,2003
2
steel
Bainitic steel 20 0.5 1.357×10-6 1.408 0. 976 Su, et al.,2007
Bainitic steel 20 0.5 6.175×10-8 2. 344 0. 988 Su, et al.,2007
U71Mn hot-rolled rail 20 0.1 6.190×10-1 3.18 0. 9802 Xian, et
1
steel al.,1993
U71Mn hot-rolled rail 20 6.190×10-1 3.18 0. 9802 Xian, et
1
steel al.,1993
1100MPa heat treated 3.094×10-1 4.053 Deng, et
3
rail steel al.,2008
U75V in-line heat 3.558×10-1 3.226 Deng, et
2
treated rail steel al.,2008
U75V hot-rolled rail 1.690×10-1 4.52 Deng, et
3
steel al.,2008
U71Mn hot-rolled rail 8.140×10-1 3.743 Deng, et
3
steel al.,2008
Bainitic steel 4.056×10-1 2.553 Chen, et
1
al.,2008
U75V in-line heat 1.319×10-1 2.884 Chen, et
1
treated rail steel al.,2008
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1520
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

TEST OF GROWTH RATE FOR CRACK Ⅰ

Transverse cracks are generally a single type of cracks. Therefore, many
researchers have conducted a three-point bending fatigue test to determine the
growth rate parameters and formulas of the rails’ transverse crack, and the test results
are summarized in Table 1 (C and m are constants of the Paris law).
As the scope of the stress intensity factor plays a major determining factor in the
process of the fatigue crack growth, so the characteristics of the fatigue cracks’
growth rate of different specimen or parts which are made of the same materials are
basically the same. Meanwhile, the tests for the fatigue crack growth rate are discrete
in nature. Therefore, one material’s disparity of the expansion rate can be obtained by
analyzing the characteristics of fatigue crack growth rate for the same kind of
material, which is an expression of the dispersion of fatigue properties. As can be
seen from Table 1, test temperatures are between 20℃~25℃; and test stress ratio is
0.5 or less. These tests are for fitting material parameters in the growth rate formula
of transverse fatigue crack, and different stress ratio has little impact on the growth
rate of transverse fatigue crack (Xu, 1988). So to some extent, the test results can be
considered under the same conditions.
ANALYSIS FOR THE DISPERSION FOR THE DISPERSION OF FATIGUE
CRACK GROWTH RATE
Test data for the fatigue crack growth rate is a certain spread in nature. Figure 1
shows the dispersion of fatigue crack growth rate for grade 260 hot-rolled rails steel
which are made by different steel mills.
10000.00
1: Sample 1# 5
2: Sample 2#
1000.00 4
3: Sample 3#
4: Sample 4#
100.00 5: Sample 5#
da/dN ( m/Gc )

6: Average value

10.00

1.00
1

2
0.10
6
3
0.01
1 10 100
∆K ( MPam 0.5)

Figure 1. Dispersion of fatigue crack growth rate for grade 260 hot-rolled rail
steel.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1521
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

As can be seen from Figure 1, the dispersion of fatigue crack growth rate is
"X"-type, that is to say, when the stress amplitude is in the case of

∆K < 10MPa m 0.5 and ∆K > 20MPa m 0.5 , the dispersion of fatigue crack growth
rate is huge, so the propagation life of fatigue crack for the rail which are made by

different steel mills will take place great changes (When ∆K =

5MPa m 0.5 , the
upper bounds value of the fatigue crack growth rate is 1.91 times more than the

lower bound; and when ∆K =

35MPa m 0.5 , the upper bounds value of the fatigue
crack growth rate is 1.31 times more than the lower bound); but when the stress

amplitude is 10MPa m 0.5 ≤ ∆K ≤ 20MPa m 0.5 , the dispersion of fatigue crack

growth rate is relatively small, (When ∆K =

5MPa m 0.5 , the upper bounds value of
the fatigue crack growth rate is 35% times more than the lower bound), so the
propagation life of fatigue crack for the rails which are made by different steel mills
will not take place great changes. Considering the test data dispersion of the fatigue
crack growth rate, if the fatigue life is calculated according to the upper bound value
of the fatigue crack growth rate, the results will make that the fatigue life is too small,
so the materials can not be fully utilized; but if the fatigue life is calculated according
to the lower bound value of the fatigue crack growth rate, the results will make that
the fatigue life is too large, and the safety factor is too low. In practice, the cases that
the fatigue crack growth rate is too fast or too slow are relatively small, so the
average value of the fatigue crack growth rate represents the characteristics of the
steel fatigue crack growth. The formula fitted in this paper of the fatigue crack
average growth rate for grade 260 hot-rolled rail steel is,
da
= 2.5527 ×10−12 ( ∆K )
3.4802
(1)
dN
To compare the characteristics of fatigue crack growth rate of the heat treatment
of steel and hot-rolled steel, the dispersion of fatigue crack growth rate of U75V
in-line heat treated rail steel, and hot-rolled steel are banded together for comparison,
just as shown in Figure 2.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1522
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10000.00
1: Chen, et al., 2008, hot-rolled steel
2: Deng, et al., 2008, hot-rolled steel
2
1000.00 3: Average value of hot-rolled steel
4: Deng, et al., 2008, in line heat-treated steel
5: Chen, et al., 2008, in line heat-treated steel
100.00
da/dN ( m/Gc )
6: Average value of in line heat-treated steel

10.00
5

1.00
6

0.10 4

3 1
0.01
1 10 100
∆K ( MPam 0.5)

Figure 2. Dispersion band of fatigue crack growth rate for U75V rail steel.
From Figure 2, the dispersions of fatigue crack growth rate between the heat
treatment of steel and the hot-rolled steel are not the same. The fatigue crack growth
rate of hot-rolled steel is "X" type, that is that the dispersion of the fatigue crack
growth rate is from large to small and then large again with the amplitude of the
stress intensity factor increasing; The fatigue crack growth rate of on-line heat
treatment steel is inverted "V"-type, that is that the dispersion of the fatigue crack
growth rate is reduced with the amplitude of the stress intensity factor increasing;
From the growth trends of the crack growth rate, the fatigue crack growth rate of the
hot-rolled steel at the initial point is smaller than on-line heat treatment of steel, but

the growth rate is larger. When ∆K is 10MPa m 0.5 more or less, the fatigue crack
growth rate of hot-rolled rail is more than on-line heat treatment of steel. The
formula fitted in this paper of the fatigue crack average growth rate for U75V
hot-rolled rail steel is,
da
= 4.6698 ×10−13 ( ∆K )
4.0880
(2)
dN
The formula fitted in this paper of the fatigue crack average growth rate for U75V
on-line heat treated rail steel is,
da
= 6.8550 ×10−12 ( ∆K )
3.0550
(3)
dN
Figure 3 is the dispersion of the fatigue crack growth rate for bainitic rail steel.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1523
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10000.00
1: Su, et al., 2007, tempering at 250℃ 4
2: Su, et al., 2007, tempering at 450℃
1000.00
3: Chen, et al., 2008, hot-rolled steel
4: Average value
100.00
da/dN ( m/Gc )

10.00

1.00 2

3
0.10

0.01
1 10 100
∆K ( MPam )
0.5

Figure 3. Dispersion of the fatigue crack growth rate for bainitic rail steel.
As can be seen from Figure 3, the fatigue crack growth rate of bainitic rail steel
also is roughly "X"-type. The fatigue crack growth rate of bainitic steel in Ref. (Chen
et al., 2008) is consistent with that in Ref. (Su et al., 2007) which the bainitic rail
steel is by heat treatment at 450 ℃, but it is quite different when the bainitic rail steel
is by heat treatment at 250 ℃. Taking into account the fatigue crack growth rate does
not meet standard requirements when the bainitic rail steel is by heat treatment at
250 ℃, so the data of the fatigue crack growth rate when the bainitic rail steel is by
heat treatment at 250 ℃ is not considered during fitting the average value of the
fatigue crack growth rate for bainitic steel. The average value of the fatigue crack
growth rate for bainitic rail steel fitted in this test is,
da
= 5.0050 ×10−11 ( ∆K )
2.4486
(4)
dN
Figure 4 is the dispersion of the fatigue crack growth rate for U71Mn steel.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1524
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10000.00
1: Wang, et al., 2007, hot-rolled steel
5
2: Zhou, et al., 2006, hot-rolled steel
1000.00 3: Liu, et al., 2003, hot-rolled steel 4
4: Su, et al., 2007, hot-rolled steel
5: Deng, et al., 2008, hot-rolled steel
100.00
da/dN ( m/Gc )

6: Average value

10.00

1.00
3

6
0.10
2 1

0.01
1 10 100
∆K ( MPam ) 0.5

Figure 4. Dispersion of the fatigue crack growth rate for U71Mn steel.
As can be seen from Figure 4, the dispersion of fatigue crack growth rate for
U71Mn is elongated strip, the dispersion of the fatigue crack growth rate is
increasing with the amplitude of the stress intensity factor increasing

(when ∆K =
5MPa m 0.5 , the upper bounds value of the fatigue crack growth rate is

3.02 times more than the lower bound; when ∆K =

35MPa m 0.5 , the upper bounds
value of the fatigue crack growth rate is 6.83 times more than the lower bound). So
the propagation life of fatigue crack for the rails which are made by different steel
mills will not take place great changes. The formula fitted in this paper of the fatigue
crack average growth rate for U71Mn hot rolled steel is,
da
= 3.5318 ×10−12 ( ∆K )
3.3143
(5)
dN
COMPARISON OF FATIGUE CRACK GROWTH RATE FOR DIFFERENT
RAIL STEEL
Many different types of rail steel are now used in the railway system, and their
characteristics of fatigue crack growth rate are different from each other. The
comparison chart of the fatigue crack growth rate for different steels can be plotted
by using of the formula of fatigue crack growth rate for different rail steels fitted in
this paper, just as shown in Figure 5.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1525
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10000.00
3 4
1: Grade 260 hot-rolled rail steel
6
2: U71Mn hot-rolled rail steel
1
1000.00 3: Hot-rolled carbon SS rail steel
2
4: U75V hot-rolled rail steel 5
100.00 5: U75V in-line heat treated rail steel
da/dN ( m/Gc )

7
6: 1100MPa heat treated rail steel
7: Bainitic steel
10.00

7
1.00
5
2
1
0.10
3
6
4
0.01
1 10 100
∆K ( MPam 0.5)

Figure 5. Comparison chart of the fatigue crack growth rate for different steels.
In Figure 5, the types of steel can be divided into two categories. One type is
pearlite steels, including hot-rolled steel of grade 260 hot-rolled rail steel, U71Mn
hot-rolled rail steel, SS carbon rail steel, U75V hot-rolled rail steel, U75V on-line
heat treated rail steel and 1100MPa heat-treated rail steel; the other is bainitic steel.
The dispersion of fatigue crack growth rate for pearlite steel is elongated strips, and
the dispersion of fatigue crack growth rate for different steels is relatively large

(when ∆K =
5MPa m 0.5 , the upper bounds value of the fatigue crack growth rate is

3.44 times more than the lower bound; when ∆K =

35MPa m 0.5 , the upper bounds
value of the fatigue crack growth rate is 3.14 times more than the lower bound). In
the pearlite steels, fatigue crack growth rate for 1100MPa heat treated rail steel is the
minimum, and U75V on-line heat treated rail steel is the largest; the increasing speed
of fatigue crack growth rate for carbon SS rail steel and U75V hot-rolled rail steel are
bigger than other kinds of steels. The initial fatigue crack growth rate for bainitic
steels is bigger than the pearlite steel after comparing the two

(when ∆K =
5MPa m 0.5 , the fatigue crack growth rate for bainitic steels is 11.23
times more than the lower bound of the pearlite steels; and 1.78 times more than the
upper bound of the pearlite steels); but the increasing speed of fatigue crack growth
rate for bainitic steels is slower than the pearlite steels, so the fatigue crack growth
rate for bainitic steels is smaller than the pearlite steels
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1526
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when ∆K =27MPa m 0.5 (when ∆K =

35MPa m 0.5 , the fatigue crack growth rate for
bainitic steels is about one-fifth of the upper bound of the pearlite steels; and 85%
of the lower bound of the pearlite steels). In addition, in the pearlite steels, grade 260
hot rolled rails steel and U71Mn hot rolled rail steel are the same grade rail steel, and
both are the tensile strength of 880MPa. From Figure 5, the fatigue crack growth rate
of the two kinds of steel is basically the same. However, from Figure 1 and Figure 4,
the discrete nature of fatigue crack growth rate for U71Mn hot rolled rail steel is
larger than grade 260 hot rolled rail steel, so it is necessary to take into account this
when choosing the type of rail steel.
COMPARISON OF FRACTURE TOUGHNESS BETWEEN DIFFERENT
RAIL STEELS
Fracture toughness based on fracture mechanics is the indicators of material
toughness, and it is a kind of nature of the material itself (Liu et al., 1999). Under
certain conditions, it has nothing to do with the loading way, sample type and size,
but it can be measured by experiment. Figure 6 is the distribution of fracture
toughness for different kinds of steels (the fracture toughness of grade 260 hot-rolled
rail steel is the minimum by standard required, and the fracture toughness of
hot-rolled carbon SS rail steel is when it is -20℃, and the others are at the room
temperature)
U75V in-line heat treated rail steel

90
1100MPa heat treated rail steel
Fracture toughness ( MPam0.5 )

Hot-rolled carbon SS rail steel

Grade 260 hot-rolled rail steel

U71Mn hot-rolled rail steel

80
U75V hot-rolled rail steel

70

60
Bainitic steel

50

40

30

20

Steel type

Figure 6. Distribution of fracture toughness for different kinds of rail steels.

Figure 6 shows the fracture toughness of the same type of steel measured by
different testers, even though under certain conditions, it has nothing to do with the
loading way, sample type and size, but it can be seen that the dispersion of fracture
toughness is also great from Figure 6. As a whole, the fracture toughness of bainitic
steel is much bigger than the fracture toughness of pearlitic steel.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1527
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CONCLUSIONS
According to the comparison chart of the fatigue crack growth rate for different
rail steels (Figure 5) and the distribution of fracture toughness for different kinds of
rail steels (Figure 6), 1100MPa heat treatment steel is suitable for using in high-speed
lines and bainitic rail steel is suitable for using in the heavy-haul railway in this paper.
In high-speed lines, the train axle load is relatively small, so the amplitude of the
corresponding stress intensity factors of crack is also smaller, while the toughness of
steel demand is higher too. When the amplitude of the stress intensity factor for
1100MPa heat treated rail steel is small, the fatigue crack growth rate is the smallest
of these types of steel, while its fracture toughness is relatively bigger, and its
strength is higher than the steel for grade 260 hot-rolled rail steel and U71Mn
hot-rolled rail steel, therefore, 1100MPa heat treated rail steel is suitable for using in
high-speed lines. The fracture toughness of the bainitic steel is nearly twice of the
pearlitic steel, and when the amplitude of the stress intensity factor for bainite steel is
relatively large, the fatigue crack growth rate is smaller than the pearlitic steel’s;
From the intensity, the bainitic steel and U75V on-line heat treated rail steel is the
same level, and their ultimate tensile strength are relatively high. Therefore, the
bainitic steel is suitable for using in the heavy line. However, some literature
indicates that the stability of the bainitic steel performance is relatively poor, and
some individual toughness is significantly lower in the same batch of samples, so the
processes improvements have to be made for the purpose of improving the quality
stability of the bainitic steel (Deng et al., 2008).
REFERENCES
Chen, C.Y., Zhang, Y.H., and Liu, F.S. (2008). “Analysis for the stripping flaw of the
portion heat treated rail under the curve of Shuozhou-Huanghua railway.”
China Railway Science, 29 (4), 28-34.
Chen, C.Y., Zhang, Y.H., and Zhou, Q.Y. (2008). “Experimental studies for China's
heavy rail with the 68kg / m rail.” Railway Engineering Journal, 120 (9),
30-34.
Chen, X., Jin, J.Y., and Liu, C.M. (2008). “Development and application of bainitic
rail with the tensile strength being 1200MPa on the railway.” Rails, 43 (11),
108-112.
Deng, J.H., Xu, Q., and Dong, Y.J. (2008). “The development and use of 1100MPa
class rail heat treatment.” Iron and steel, 43 (6), 78-81.
Liu, W.T., Zheng, M.Z., and Fei, B.J. (1999). Probabilistic fracture mechanics and
probability of damage tolerance / durability, Beijing University of
Aeronautics and Astronautics Press, Beijing.
Liu, Q.T., and Li, Y.P. (2003). “Measurement and analysis of the fatigue crack
growth rate da / dN of U71Mn rail.” Railway Society, 25 (5), 29-31.
Silva, L.F.M., Stewardson, D.J., and Oliveira, M.F. (2003). “Fatigue crack growth of
rails for railway.” Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1528
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Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit, 217(2), 89-97.

Su, H.Y., Chen, H.K., and Lv, D. (2007). “The fatigue crack growth rate of hot-rolled
rail for bainite steel in different tempering temperatures.” Physical and
chemical tests-physical volumes, 43 (12), 602-604.
Wang, W.J. and Liu, Q.Y. (2007). “Studies for the fatigue crack growth rate of PD3
and U71Mn Steel Rail.” Mechanical strength, 29 (6), 1026-1029.
Xu, H. (1988). Fatigue strength, Higher Education Press, Beijing.
Xian, A.P., Li, P.J., and Wang, Y.K. (1993). “The impaction of U71Mn heavy rail
made in Panzhihua rolling followed by air cooling on the low-frequency
fatigue crack growth rate.” Iron and steel, 28 (12), 56-59.
Xi, N.S., Liu, F.S., and Zhou, Q.Y. (2005). “The characteristics and development
model of the fatigue defects for the rail rolling contact.” Physical and
chemical tests - physical volumes, 41 (Supplement) 95-99.
Zhou, X.L. and Xiang, Y.N. (2006). “Estimating the life extension of nuclear injury
of the U71Mn 50kg/m rail at Shimen segment of Jiaozuo-Liuzhou railway.”
Journal of Central South University (Natural Science Edition), 35 (3),
495-499.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1529
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A Berth Scheduling Problem under Sailing Schedule Disruption

Chunxia YANG 1, Nuo WANG1 and Bing ZHAO1

1
Transportation and Logistics College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026,
China; PH (086) 0411-84726837; email: chunxia.yang@gmail.com.

ABSTRACT
In multi-user container terminals, the berth schedule, in which, the berthing
position, the berthing time and the number of the quay cranes are arranged for each
ship, is made in advance based on the sailing schedule of the coming ships. However,
in practice, the sailing schedule is often disrupted for many reasons, such as bad
weather, or the decisions from the ship companies, etc. This kind of disruption will
cause the original schedule in corresponding ports to be no longer optimal, simply
unfeasible. Thus, the berth scheduling problem with sailing schedule disrupted was
addressed in this paper. Initially, the disruptions from the sailing schedule were
divided into the three following types: scheduled ships skipping over the port, ships
changing their arrival time, and unscheduled ships arriving at the port. Subsequently,
based on the theory of disruption management, a recovery model and deviation from
the original schedule was established with the performance of the new schedule and
the recovery cost considered. To solve the model, a heuristic algorithm based on
neighborhood search was proposed; therefore, there were advantages utilized with
the original information to formulate a fast solution. To conclude this information
examples have been provided to show the efficiency of the proposed approach.

INTRODUCTION
A berth scheduling problem can be described as the following: The ships,
which come for the port according to the sailing schedule, must be arranged to
berths and quay cranes with the berth space, time constraints, and an optimal
objective. By using some algorithm, an optimal or near-optimal schedule will be
obtained, in which the berthing position, the berthing time, and the numbers of quay
cranes for each ship can be created. In practice, however, there are many
uncertainties such as disruptions during the execution of the berth schedule in
container terminal. The most common uncertainty is from sailing schedules. Drewry
Shipping Consultants Ltd made an investigation to 3300 ships in 23 lines in 2006.
The result displayed that only 57% of ships came for port in time, about 22% were
late for 1 day, 7% for 2 days, and the rest for 3 or more days. Furthermore, some
ships may change their routing for some reason, which will disrupt berth schedules
in corresponding ports. For the berth schedule is combined with several handling
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activities. When one is delayed or broken down, the subsequent ones, and the whole
schedule, will be disrupted. If so, the original schedule is optimal, and may no
longer be feasible. Therefore, the primary purpose of this paper was to provide an
optimal approach for problems of this type.
There have been lots of studies on the generation of the berth schedule. They
can be divided into three types such as the following research directions: the discrete
berth allocation problem (Imai et al., 2007), the berth allocation problem with a
continuous location index (Lee et al., 2009) and the simultaneous berth, and quay
crane allocation problem (Imai et al., 2008). The previous studies paid more
attention to improve the optimal model or the algorithm. Ships were just considered
as input conditions in most cases. Generally, there were two ways to gain the data of
ships, generation by computer, and adoption from a sail schedule. The first way was
more used to validate the efficiency of an optimal approach with different number of
ships, while the second way was to create a real berth schedule. Thus, the second
one was discussed in this paper. To the best of our knowledge, only a few literatures
considered the changes of the ships. Zhou et al. (Zhou et al., 2008) mentioned that
the arrival times of the ships were uncertain, and the difference between the actual
arrival time and the scheduled time obeyed the normal distribution. However, in
their paper, only an optimal mode was created with robustness, and the way to adjust
the original schedule under disruptions was not mentioned.
The theory of disruption management provides a new efficient way to deal
with the disruption problem. Yu et al. (Yu et al., 2004) stated that disruption
management was a process to revise the original plan and obtain a new one that
reflected the constraints and objectives of the evolved environment while
minimizing the negative impact of the disruption. There were also applications in
airline planning, vehicle routing machine scheduling, supply chain coordination,
project management, and so on.
An optimal approach was provided by using the disruption theory to solve
the disruption problem in berth scheduling. First, the disruptions caused by the
sailing schedule were divided into several types. After that, to minimize the negative
impact, a recovery model was brought out with the performance of the updating
schedule, the deviation from the original one and the recovery cost considered.
Furthermore, a heuristic with neighborhood search, which can gain a satisfactory
solution, quickly utilized the information of the original schedule, and was put
forward to solve the model. And experiments were used to valued the efficiency of
the proposed approach
THE RECOVERY MODEL
Problem description
As shown in Fig. 1, the disruptions from the sailing schedule was divided into the
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three following types: 1) scheduled ships skipping over the port (Ship A); 2) ships
changing their arrival time (Ship B); 3) unscheduled ships coming for the port (Ship
E). Each of them may make the schedule unfeasible and the shadows between ships
represented the conflicts in figure 1(b).
To deal with the disruptions, a recovery model was suggested based on the
following assumptions: 1) there was an original berth schedule; 2) the port should
service all the ships in the port except the skipping ones; 3) the predictive disruption
management policy [4] was adopted because the ship company would notify the port
in advance if there was a change; 4) berthing before the scheduled time was not
allowed to avoid some export containers missing their ships; 5) each ship had a
maximum and minimum number of quay cranes to be assigned; 6) the stay time of a
ship included the waiting time and the handling time; 7) the handling time of a ship
was inversely proportional to the number of cranes, where the discount of operating
efficiency per crane caused by simultaneous operations was not considered.
The recovery model
Based on the disruption management theory, several factors must be taken into
account in the recovery objectives: 1) The performance of the new schedule. It
meant that the new schedule was still optimal; or near-optimal with respect to the
original objective in the new condition. 2) The deviation from the original schedule.
The performance of a schedule was determined by few objectives such as the stay
time of ships in optimal model. However, there were many factors related to the
schedule, like human resource arrangement and trailer scheduling etc., and it was
hard to calculate the loss when the schedule changes. Therefore, it was important to
reduce the deviation when the schedule was updated. 3) The recovery cost. It made
the operation back on track.

Figure 1. Disruption in berth scheduling.

Let l, m, n and c be the total number of ships, berthing positions, time
segments and quay cranes, respectively. lk was the length of ship k (including the
horizontal safety clearance) while bk, dk, ek and ak were the scheduled berthing
position, the due departure time, the arrival time, and the handling time of ship k.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1532
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cmink and cmaxk were the minimum and maximum number of quay cranes that could
be assigned to ship k. The decision variables Bk, Tk and Yjk represented the berthing
position, the berthing time and the number of cranes allocated to ship k at time
segment j. Xijk was also a decision variable to express if the grid square (i, j) was
covered by the rectangle for ship k. The recovery model was as follows:
Objective function:
l l l
∂ ∑ (Tk + ak − ek ) + β ∑ (Tk + ak − d k ) + γ ∑ | Bk − bk |
min f = (1)
=k 1=k 1=k 1

Subject to：
T k ≥ ek (2)

∑X
k =1
ijk ≤ 1 , ∀i ∈ {1, 2,..., m}, ∀j ∈ {1, 2,...n} (3)

∑Y
k =1
jk ≤ c , ∀j ∈ {1, 2,..., n} (4)

c min k ≤ Y jk ≤ c max k , if Tk ≤ j ≤ Tk + ak ;0, otherwise (5)

X ijk = 1 , if Bk ≤ i ≤ Bk + lk and Tk ≤ j ≤ Tk + ak ;0, otherwise (6)

In Eq. (1), the first term described the performance of the new schedule
according to the original objective (the total stay time of ships). The second term
denoted the deviation by the difference between the departure time and the due
departure time for all ships. When a ship departed from the port later than the due
time, the value was positive which meant there was a penalty for the extra
consumption fuel of the corresponding ship, and vice versa. The third one
represented the recovery cost depended on the distance from the berth position to the
scheduled one for all ships. The three components were weighted and scaled by α, β
and γ.
Constraint (2) ensured that ships were serviced after their arrival; constraint
(3) restricted a grid square must be covered by only one ship; constraint (4)
restricted the maximum number of cranes utilized at a time segment; constraint (5)-
(6) defined the value ranges of Yjk and Xijk.
HEURISTIC ALGORITHM
A heuristic algorithm was proposed based on neighborhood search in this
section to solve the model for the heuristic. The Algorithm was utilized with the
original information to create a fast solution. Starting from an initial feasible
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1533
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solution, the heuristic improved the solution through iterations. Each iteration
generated a new feasible solution S' by slightly altering the current one S. If S' was
better, then replaced S; otherwise, abandoned S'. In either case the heuristic
continued to the next iteration until the end condition was met. The best feasible
solution encountered in the entire process was used as the final output. The details
and a flow chart signed Fig.2 of the heuristic was laid out below.
1) Generation of the initial feasible solution
If the updating schedule with disruptions was still feasible which happens
rarely, used it as the initial feasible solution; otherwise, a new one from the
infeasible schedule was needed to generate at first. Taking Ship B and Ship D in
fig.1(b) as an example, presented the three following moving strategies to deal with
the conflict: 1) delaying the berthing time of Ship B; 2) moving Ship B to another
location; 3) moving Ship D to another location. The strategies were used in turn until
a feasible solution was found. It is presumed that there was always a feasible
solution existing if the distance from the time axis were not minded.
2) Generation of the new feasible solution
The heuristic randomly selected one ship in S and attempted to replace its
schedule sk = (Bk, Tk, Yjk) by sk'= (Bk+△1, Tk+△2, Yjk+△3), where △i (i=1, 2, 3)
was randomly selected from different intervals. If sk' was compatible with all
schedules of other ships in S, S' will be found; otherwise, the heuristic tried to alter
sk again for up to T1 times. In the rare case that no alternately feasible sk' can be
found, the heuristic proceed to the next iteration.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1534
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Figure 2. The flow chart of the heuristic.

NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
Dalian Container Terminal (DCT) in Dalian (China) was used as the actual
model. In DCT, there were 8 quay cranes and a Berth of 800 m. The DCT manager
had made a berth schedule with 10 ships according to the sailing schedule as shown
in Fig.3. However, at time 0, the ship companies notified that Ship 3 and Ship 4
would be late for 10 hours and 12 hours, respectively; Ship 5 would skip over and
Ship A which was not in the schedule would come for the port. The disruptions
could be seen in Fig. 3(b).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1535
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Figure 3. The disrupted berth schedule in DCT.

To solve the problem, the berth space-time was partitioned into 80×48 grid
squares. Each one was corresponded to 10 m-1 hour in real size. Let α=1, β=2, γ=0.1,
the intervals of △i (i=1, 2, 3) were [-10, 10], [-5, 5] and [-2, 2]. The heuristic was
coded in C++ on Pentium 4 processor (2.6-GHz clock), and the computational time
was 54s.
For comparison, an approach with the berthing sequence-unchanging
strategy (called Approach I for short), which was usually adopted in practice, was
used to calculate the same example. Meanwhile, the proposed approach was called
Approach II. The contrast results showed in Table 1.

Table 1. Results.
The total stay time of Recovery
Deviation(h)
ships(h) cost(m)
Approach I 1380 10.2 215
Approach II 1150 5.3 253
Optimization
16.7% 48.0% -17.7%
degree

As shown in Table 1, with the objectives of the total stay time of ships and
the deviation, Approach II was more optimal than Approach I with the degree of
16.7% and 48.0%, respectively; however, Approach II increased the recovery cost
about 17.7% comparing with Approach I. Because the recovery cost was not a very
important factor in recovery process, and the purpose of disruption management was
to find a least-negative impact schedule more than a cost-least one. So, Approach II
could solve the disruption problem in berth scheduling better.
CONCLUSION
In container terminals, the changes from sailing schedule was the most
common disruption in berth scheduling, and might make the original schedule no
longer optimal even unfeasible. To update the original schedule with minimum
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1536
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negative impact, an optimal approach was brought out based on the disruption
management theory and applications in other regions. First, with the performance of
the updating schedule, the deviation from the original schedule and the recovery cost
considered, a recovery model was provided. To solve the model, a neighborhood
search heuristic was proposed, in which the generation rule could use the
information of the current solution well. Furthermore, an example from DCT was
given to check the validity of the approach; and the comparison with the existing
approach was also made. The results showed that, the proposed approach could
obtain a new schedule with better performance, less deviation and a little more
recovery cost, and solve the disruption problem better. In addition, some disruptions
were not mentioned in this paper, for instance, human resource disruption or
machine disruption etc., which could be studied until the future.
REFERENCES
Imai, A., Nishimura, E., Hattori, M., and Papadimitriou, S. (2009). “Berth allocation
at indented berths for mega container ships.” European Journal of
Operational Research, 179: 579-593.
Imai, A., Chen, H.C., Nishimura, E., and Papadimitriou, S. (2008). “The
simultaneous berth and quay crane allocation problem.” Transportation
Research Part E, 44: 900-920.
Lee, Y., and Chen, C. (2009). “An optimization heuristic for berth scheduling
problem.” European Journal of Research, 196: 500-508.
Yu, G., and Qi, X. (2004). Disruption management: framework, models and
applications, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Zhou, P., and Kang, H. (2008). “Study on berth and quay-crane allocation under
stochastic environments in container terminal.” Systems Engineering -
Theory & Practice, 1: 161-169
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1537
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Integration of Rail Systems within A Metropolis: A Case Study of Wuxi City

Xuesong ZHANG1, Dawei BIAN2 and Min CHEN3

1
Wuxi Urban Planning & Research Center, Wuxi, P.R. China; postcode: 214031;
Phone: (0086)13812013196; e-mail: xuesong3000@hotmail.com
2
Wuxi Urban Planning & Research Center, Wuxi, P.R. China; postcode: 214031;
Phone: (0086)13921142690; e-mail: erwai0518@sina.com
3
School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, P.R. China;
postcode: 201804; e-mail: emailchenmin@yahoo.com.cn

ABSTRACT
Railway is regarded as a preferred service reducing the increasing urban
traffic congestion and restraining urban sprawl as a public transport mode of high
capacity, and therefore is widely adopted. Some of the Chinese metropolises have
built the rail systems including high-speed rail, intercity rail, conventional rail, metro,
light rail, etc. Integrating the coexisting rail systems is necessary to avoid internal
competition and to attract new transit riders.
The paper applies comparison and analysis to distinguish the suited service
targets of each rail. The correlation between the designed travel speed and the station
spacing of the popular rails in a metropolis is analyzed also to identify what demand
each may meet. While metro and light-rails mainly serve the urban riders, high-speed
and intercity rails carry long-trip travel passengers. There is a lack of rail services for
medium-trips as the conventional rail cannot satisfy the travel demand in a
metropolis if there are no alternatives. The paper draws the conclusion that either
improving the present conventional rail or building a new suburban rail to feed the
intercity rail or metro is needed for the rail integration. Some of the research results
are introduced into the rail plan in Wuxi City.

INTRODUCTION
Railway is one of the important transportation modes for its rapidness, safety,
punctuality, high capacity, low energy consumption and low environmental pollution
etc. Also, it is considered an effective way to concentrate human activities to orient
the urban development toward a compact city. These characters are the main reasons
the rail is undergoing rapid development in China in recent years. By the end of 2007,
the urban rail transit operated in nine provinces of China including Beijing, Shanghai,
Tianjin, Chongqing, Jilin, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hubei and Guangdong, and the total
operating network length reached 763 kilometers as well as the number of passengers
up to 2205.82 million a year (NBS, 2008). But there still exists a big gap between the
supply of the railway carrying capacity and the social demand. So the construction of
the railway network is still a big task for Chinese cities in the future to increase the
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passenger carrying capacity. It is estimated the overall length of China’s urban rail
transit will exceed 1700 kilometers by 2015 and the total investment will be over
CNY 600 billion. Meanwhile, the construction of high-speed rails (HSR) in China is
also hastened with a 4 trillion CNY fiscal stimulus program carried out by Chinese
government to cope with the global financial crisis. Liu-Zhijun, the Minister of
Railways, stated there will be a passenger-dedicated line network of 18,000
kilometers and the cities in the major metropolitan areas will be connected by
intercity rail network by 2020 (Liu, 2009).
COMPETITION AND COOPERATION IN RAIL SYSTEMS
Railway was an effective monopoly on land for long journey passengers since
the early 20th century but then declined because of the competition with automobiles.
To change the situation, the operational system of the conventional rail has been
reformed. HSR then arose for its significantly fast speed and high capacity. Now,
HSR plays a large and growing role in passenger transportation.
In general, the competition in passenger markets launches not only between
rail and road, but also among rail systems. HSR lines are usually located in the same
corridors with the existing conventional rail (CR) lines for the huge cultivated
passenger transport market. Some literatures describe the practice that these two rail
systems coexist in the population aggregate and economic prosperous regions such as
Europe and some Asian regions such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, etc.
(Chaug-Ing et al., 1997). Passengers are provided more choices in travel time and
fares: most commuters may select CR, while the medium to long-trip travelers may
prefer HSR.
With the introduction of advanced technologies, the China Railway
High-speed (CRH) vehicles named “Harmony” have been produced and put into use.
These electric multiple units have four models in series at present, which is CRH1,
CRH2, CRH3 and CRH5. Compared with CR trains with a top cruise speed of
120~160 km/h, CRH series trains may run with a maximum speed of over 200 km/h.
The development of HSR in China stimulates the process of the rapid
urbanization. A considerable number of cities in the well -developed regions such as
the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Bohai Economic Rim of
China appear to be an agglomeration development trend. Guangzhou, Shanghai and
Beijing are the core cities giving the impetus to the surrounding cities. The
implementation of HSR could be one of the key factors that breaks through the
boundaries of administrative regions and makes the cities complement one another.
Besides the large-scale construction projects of the passenger-dedicated lines
of HSR invested by the Ministry of Railways, there will be another longtime and
persistent tide of regional intercity rail construction invested by the provincial
governments, predicted Zhou-Yimin, the former assistant chief engineer of the
Ministry of Railways (Yong, 2009). Compared with HSR serving the long -trip travel
and the urban rail transit invested by local governments serving the urban regions
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and the intercity, rail lines managed by the provincial governments may serve the
medium travel trip with a top cruise speed between 120 and 160km/h. These three
rails besides CR compete and cooperate with one another, providing rail services to
passenger trips. HSR and urban transit rail serve passengers with long or short-range
trips respectively, while the intercity rail and CR accommodating more for the
medium trip travel passengers and feeding HSR or the urban metro.
COMPATIBILITY OF RAIL SYSTEMS IN WUXI’S PRACTICE
As an economic prosperous metropolis and the regional transport hub located
in the central of the Yangtze River Delta, Wuxi City may own HSR, intercity rail, and
CR connecting the core cities all around such as Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shanghai,
Beijing, etc. The Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, the Nanjing-Shanghai direct
intercity rail and the Nanjing-Hangzhou direct intercity rail traverse the city with a
top speed of over 300 km/h. Moreover, there are three CR lines crisscrossing in the
city as well as intercity rail and urban rail transit under construction.
Appropriate serving spacing
Rail systems suit discriminative serving regions. HSR runs with a top speed
of over 200 km/h and conveys passengers with the travel destination of 200 to 1500
kilometers away. Since HSR can hardly provide a door-to-door service, it needs some
collection/distribution transport systems as feeding supplements. The intercity rail
serves mainly the medium -trip travel passengers with a distance less than 200 km,
supporting the need for regional agglomeration developments in a metropolitan area.
The proper serving range of CR is more flexible owing to its versatile and
compatibility features. CR may supplement HSR as a feeding line as well as carry
passengers taking the value of time not much as a solo transport mode, or even
transport short-trip travel passengers as a part of urban transit rail.
Besides CR, urban rail transit includes the rail transport modes of metro,
light-rail, monorail, tram, urban maglev, and suburban railway, etc. In general, the
urban rail transit serves passengers concentrated in districts near the downtown for
the lower cruise speed. In Tokyo metropolis, many large corporate headquarters and
the government agencies including the Congress concentrated in the special wards
consist of 23 municipalities which cover the regions taking the Tokyo Central Station
as the center of circle radius 15km scopes. So converge the most urban rail transit
lines of a total length of 584.8 km there, and the density of which is up to an
astonishing 948 m/km2(Hiroshi, 2003). Such situations are similar in some European
metropolises, for their average lengths of light-rail, metro, and suburban are 15 km,
27 km, 50 km respectively, showing the layouts of the urban rail transit mainly
concentrates on the approximate circular coverage with a 15 km radius to the
downtown.
According to the rail planning practice in Wuxi City, there are two HSR lines
almost parallel traverse the city connecting the major cities around as Nanjing,
Shanghai, Beijing, etc. Three intercity rail lines push ahead with the exchange and
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cooperation between Wuxi City and the neighborhoods. One of the three CR lines
lies closely and parallels the Nanjing-Shanghai HSR supplementing the provision for
short-trip travel demand, and the other two are planned as freight traffic railway lines.
These three rails compose the main ingress/egress passageways of the city and serve
mainly the passengers with a medium to long-trip travel of over 30 km, especially the
ones traveling over 50 km.
The rapid developing economy and the increasing population lend a
momentum to the metro development in Wuxi City. The total length of the new
expanded metro network reaches to 300 km, nearly twice the scale as the former
vision overlying almost the zone of 15 km radius. With the top speed of 80 km/h and
the commercial speed of 40 km/h, eight metro lines are planned to ensure the travel
time of the most residents within one hour.
To fill the omission of the rail service “blind area” in the regions with a distance of
15 to 30 km, even up to 50 km to the downtown, it is necessary for the supplement of
suburban rail with a top speed of 120~160 km/h. Then two suburban rail lines are
under planning to extend north and south connecting the two county cities belonging
to Wuxi municipality respectively. These two lines not only cut the spent time of the
passengers shuttling between the central city and the county cities, but also stretch
the city’s development axes to optimize the urban spatial structure. The layout of
each rail system coexisting in Wuxi City is illustrated in Figure 1.
CORRESPONDING STATION-TO-STATION DISTANCES
The rolling stock running on the two HSR lines traversing Wuxi City will be
the CRH trains with the maximum speeds up to 300 and 380 km/h respectively. The
super high cruise speed needs sufficient station spacing and limits the station
numbers on the lines. There are only 32 stations on the Beijing-Shanghai HSR line
with a mean station-to-station distance of 42 km, and just one station located in the
territory of Wuxi City. The other Nanjing-Shanghai HSR line locates on the
agglomerate belt consisting of the economic prosperous cities in the Yangtze River
Delta, serving six main cities and dozens of zones along the line. So there are two
kinds of trains with designed speed of 300 km/h and 160 km/h, corresponding to the
operations of calling chief stations only and stopping at all stations respectively.
The intercity rail connecting Wuxi City and the neighborhoods is attached to
the obligation of pushing forward the regional development along the line. So there
is a conflict in choices between the more serving stations and the higher operating
speed even if CRH, the most advanced rolling stock in China by now, is adopted in
the intercity rail lines. The starting acceleration and the brake retardation rate of the
vehicle are the key factors limiting the station spacing. A similar situation occurs in
the decision process of balancing the station spacing and the speed of the suburban
rail. The CRH’s technical parameters of the starting acceleration and the brake
retardation
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Figure 1. The layout of rail systems in Wuxi City.

rate are shown in Table 1 (Zhang, 2007). To ensure the efficiency of the rail system’s
operation, we assume that at least a half of the travel time in the two adjacent stations
is utilized at the designed speed. Taking the utmost value 0.6 m/s2 and 1.0 m/s2 as the
acceleration and deceleration value respectively, we get the corresponding
appropriate station spacing for each designed speed in Table 2.
Table 1. CRH parameters of acceleration and deceleration (m/s2).
CHR1 CHR2 CHR3 CHR5
Starting acceleration 0.6 0.4 0.5
unavailable
Brake retardation rate 0.1~0.8 0.3~1.0 0.2~0.7
Table 2. Proper station spacing for designed speed.
Designed speed (km/h) 120 160 200 250 300
Length for acceleration (km) 0.93 1.65 2.57 4.02 5.79
Length for deceleration (km) 0.56 0.99 1.54 2.41 3.47
Length for normal travel (km) 2.96 5.27 8.23 12.86 18.52
Proper station spacing (km) 4.44 7.90 12.35 19.29 27.78
In general, the distance of adjacent stations of intercity rail does not exceed
10 km for the demand of the regional development and the return of investment,
while for suburban rail the distance usually limits in 5 km. Table 2 shows that it is
not necessary to adopt excessively high-speed in intercity rail systems or in suburban
rail systems. The rolling stock with a top speed of 120 and 160 may be sufficient.
CONCLUSIONS
The development of technologies motivates the emergence of new modes in
rail system, and the competitions among these modes are unavoidable. This paper
analyzes the compatibility of the multiple rail systems coexisting in a metropolis
with a case study of Wuxi City. The difference in the top speed of rolling stock in
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each rail system leads to the disparity of the appropriate serving regions and the
station spacing.
HSR serves mainly for the country by the super high commercial speed but
does not suit for travel confined within an individual metropolis. Intercity rail is
adopted mainly for the metropolitan regions and partially for the municipal regions
of a metropolis with a station-to-station distance of approx 10 km, not requiring an
excessively high velocity. These two systems besides CR share the long-trip and the
partial medium-trip travel markets over 30 km of the rail system.
Metro and light-rail have gotten rapid development in recent years for the
urban transport demand, concentrating on the regions within a 15 km radius to the
downtown with a top speed of 80 km/h and the maximum station spacing of 2 km. To
complement the service for medium-trip markets and collection/distribution markets,
suburban rail with a top speed of 120 and 160 km/h and the station-to-station
distance of approx 5 km is necessary for a metropolis while the construction of CR
lines is restricted by the institutional framework in China. Two suburban rail lines are
integrated in the territorial rail system in Wuxi City’s rail planning practice, together
with HSR, intercity rail, CR, metro and light-rail forming the efficient and
sustainable passenger transport backbone.
REFERENCES
Chaug-Ing, H. (1997). “A model for market share distribution between high-speed
and conventional rail services in a transportation corridor.” Ann Reg
Science, 31:121–153.
Liu, Z. (2009). “May the day come soon when passengers travel more conveniently
and the goods are transported more fluently.”
NBS (National Bureau of Statistics). (2008). China Statistical Yearbook 2008.
Beijing: China Statistics Press.
Okada, H. (2003). “Planning, construction and management of urban rail
system-experience from Tokyo.” Urban Mass Transit, 3:1-7
Zhang, Y. (2009). “The three tides in the rail development in China.” Urban Mass
Transit, 12(9), 32-36.
< http://www.china-mor.gov.cn/zxft/zf09.html> (Sep.12, 2009)
Zhang, Z. (2007). “Computation of braking distance and supervisory device braking
mode curve design for CRH electric multiple unit.” Railway locomotive &
car, 27(6), 1-5.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1543
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Rational Division and Transport Organization Coordination of

Passenger-dedicated Lines and Relevant Existing Lines

Jingdong SUN 1, Shunli WANG 2 and Yibin ZHANG 3

1
Department of Traffic and Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Num.1,
Jingqu Road, Emeishan Sichuan 614202, China; PH(86)833-3061608; FAX (86)
833-5198354; email: sun_jdong@163.com
2
Department of Traffic and Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Num.1,
Jingqu Road, Emeishan Sichuan 614202, China; PH(86)833-5198354; FAX (86)
833-5198354; email: shun_79@163.com
3
Department of Traffic and Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Num.1,
Jingqu Road, Emeishan Sichuan 614202, China; PH(86)833-5196257; FAX (86)
833-5198354; email: benjaminzyb@163.com

ABSTRACT
Along with the development of the general-speed lines, the speed-improving
lines and the incoming of the dedicated passenger traffic lines are also growing. The
development has resulted in the railway transportation corridor with various types of
lines and there are both passenger and freight trains on the general-speed lines. The
railway traffic organization and the carrying capacity of the block section are used to
determine the labor-division principles of the transportation corridor. Based on the
transportation cost, the daily transportation organization and other factors, the
optimization model of labor-division in railway transportation corridors was
established. According to the railway transportation corridor from Nanning to Baise,
the following research was carried out. The overall condition of the passenger
dedicated lines and the existing railway as well as the characteristics of the passenger
and cargo flow in railway transportation corridors were analyzed. The possibilities of
running double stack container trains in the corridor were also analyzed. In the
meantime, the running speed and the train running time of the passenger dedicated
lines in the corridor were studied. At last, combined with the analysis above, through
the comparisons of several labor-division schemes between passengers dedicated
lines and the existing railway in different ways, the final labor-division scheme in
Nanning-Kunming railway transportation corridor was determined.

INTRODUCTION
For a long time, Chinese railways have continued to use a transportation
model that mixed passenger and freight. With the investment in the construction of
Chinese passenger dedicated lines, the main busy lines of Chinese railways will be
built as passenger dedicated lines to separate the running of passenger trains from
freight trains. Therefore, most of the lines that are under-construction and planning
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passenger dedicated lines use a parallel pattern of train running with existing
railways, which results in the problem of reasonable division of labor in parallel lines
of the railway transportation corridor. Whether the division of labor between
passengers dedicated line and the existing railway is reasonable or not, it exerts great
influence on the rational utilization of each line's carrying capacity, an increase of
travel speed of passenger and freight trains and improvement of the service and
organization in railway transportation. Consequently, the basic condition of each
element in railway transportation corridor should be investigated and analyzed in
details. The division of labor of transportation organization in transportation corridor
also should be implemented scientifically so as to enable full utilization to the whole
transport capacity of the transportation corridor.
PRINCIPLES OF DIVISION OF LABOR IN RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION
CORRIDOR
In the transport organization pattern of running different distances and
different speed levels passenger train and freight train in railway transportation
corridor, the basic principles of division of labor between parallel lines in
transportation corridor are as follows:
(1) It can be beneficial to enable full utilization in each line's carrying
capacity in transportation corridor. Meanwhile, the coordination of each line's
carrying capacity should be guaranteed;
(2) It can be convenient for passenger travel, improve the quality of passenger
traffic service and reduce the times of passenger transfer;
(3) It can create the good condition of train operation organization, which
guarantees the safety of train operation;
(4) It can effectively improve the travel speed of passenger and freight trains
in railway transportation corridor, which shorten both passenger travel time and
cargo-shipping time;
(5) It can be beneficial to every line in railway transportation corridor, if a
line is guaranteed full utilization to allow every line’s technical advantage and
improve train running speed and freight transportation capacity in every line to the
utmost to obtain larger operational revenue. The transportation corridor can benefit
from having the full utilization of each railway line. There are apparent technological
advantages in allowing full utilization. Lines are able to run at improved speeds and
the transportation capacity of freight is increased significantly. This results in an
increase in operational revenue.
(6) It can be beneficial to daily train operation, which creates good conditions
for the implementation of operation organization;
(7) The mutual coordination of target speed and train speed level of every line
in transportation corridor should be fully considered and the technical advantage of
every line should be fully exerted to improve train traveling speed as possible;
(8) As for the passenger train with a higher speed grade and the passenger
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train with longer trip distance in railway transportation corridor, it should be made to
run on passenger dedicated line as much as possible or run longer distance on
passenger dedicated line;
(9) As for the labor-division scheme of passenger trains and freight trains, its
influence on the layout of railway passenger station and freight station inside the hub
and human landscape and also world cultural heritage should be fully considered;
The labor division scheme of passenger and freight train should consider the
following: the layout of railway passenger station, the freight station inside the hub,
the human landscape and culture.
(10) The labor-division of freight trains should strictly follow the freight train
formation plan that is determined by the technical station.
METHOD OF LABOR-DIVISION TO RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION
CORRIDOR
The labor-division of running a train in railway transportation corridor should
be done in order to discover some labor-division scheme, which can realize the
optimal train travel speed and the optimal train operation adjustment and also the
lowest traffic cost. The optimal labor-division scheme is determines the traffic cost,
train traveling speed and the daily adjustment of the operation organization. It allows
the corridor to achieve an integrated optimal result. Integrated optimization may refer
to a Single-handed index rather than the global optimization. However, as to all of
the three, it is optimal. The mathematical model is established as the following
formula (1).
c d a b
min Z= ∑∑∑∑ kcd wc lab (1)

Where a is line type in transportation corridor, b is interval number of every

line in transportation corridor, c is train type, d is number of train of every train type,
k cd is d train in train type c, wc is unit operation cost of train type c, lab is length

of b interval of line type a.

(1) Number of train running in each section can not exceed the carrying
capacity of the block section;
(2) The average speed of train operation in every line must exceed the
satisfied travel speed to some extent;
(3) The labor-division scheme of transport organization is specifically related
with running the type of the train, the running order of the train, the carrying capacity
and the utilization ratio. The difficult degree of adjustment of transport organization
in transportation corridor should be lower than a prescribed satisfaction level.
OVERVIEWS OF NANNING-KUNMING RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION
CORRIDOR AND EXISTING RAILWAY
The new Yun nan-Guizhou high-speed railway is located in Guangxi
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Autonomous Region and Yunnan Province It starts in Nanning,Guangxi, and passes

through Longan, Pingguo, Tiandong, Tianyang, Baise in Guangxi. It passes also
through Fuling, Guangnan, Qiubei, Shilin, Yiliang in Yunnan.It finally ends in
Kunming Nan station in Yunnan Province. The new double track railway is 745.747
km from Nanning to Kunming, the speed of passenger train is at the maximum of
200 km/h and the reserved speed is 250 km/h. While Nanning-Baise section is a new
intercity PDL of double track railway, Baise-Kunming section is a new double track
railway for passenger traffic in which some of freight trains are on the line. The
Yun nan-Guizhou high-speed railway project is planned to start in December 2009
and the construction period are 6 years, and the total engineering investment is 89.9
billion Yua n.
The full length of Nanning-Kunming railway is 895.277km, which was built
at the end of 1990's. It is an electrified trunk railway of single line which was put into
operation in 1997.The allowable speed of Nanning-Kunming railway is 80-120km/h,
but the running limit-speed influences on the line carrying capacity in the diseases
section of railway line. The passenger train only runs 6 pairs per day in the whole
line of Nanning-Kunming railway. Because of the freight demand, it is difficult for
the passenger train to make a large number of trips. While the cargo transported in
the freight up line train consists of mainly coal, steel and etc. The cargo in the freight
up line train cannot meet the demand of petroleum, minerals and so on. The density
of sectional freight transport reached 2360×104t, 6 pairs of passenger train in
Nanning-Baise section in 2005 and the line carrying capacity is saturated.
According to the forecast of traffic volume and traffic organization in the
transportation corridor, the recent and long term maximum total passenger trains in
the Nanning-Baise section is respectively 38 and 63 pairs, and the freight handling
volume is respectively 8120×104t and 10918×104t.Moreover, the recent and long
term the maximum total running of passenger train in Baise-Kunming section is
respectively 31 and 43 pairs, and the freight handling volume is respectively 12478
×104t and 15507×104t.The mass freight of this transportation corridor is coal, ore
and petroleum. The coal concentrated in Xingyi area and Panxi and Weihong line,
which of Yunnan and Guizhou is respectively transported to Nanning and Guigang
area. The petroleum and ore is the through volume transported to Kunming,
Panzhihua and Yiyuan.
CHARACTERISTICS OF PASSENGER FLOW IN NANNING-KUNMING
RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR
Nanning-Kunming transportation corridor is presently the most important
railway transportation corridor from Yunnan to the south China coastal area, which
bears the mission of passenger exchange between Yunnan (including Panxi area in
Sichuan, south Sichuan and etc.) and central south Guangxi, central south
Guangdong, Hainan and part area of south Fujian. The through and terminal
passenger flow in this transportation corridor occupies 43% and the over line
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passenger flow occupies 57%. The over line passenger flow is the exchange mainly
between Kunming, western Yunnan area, Pearl River delta area, Haikou area and
Beibu gulf. The passenger transport is mainly the long distance over line in this
transportation corridor and the structure of the passenger trip distance and passenger
flow is shown in Figure 1.Nanning and Kunming are both the provincial capital city
in western China and the distribution of the main city along the line is shown in
Figure 2. For the passenger flow in this transportation corridor, as the economy along
the line is well developed to some extent, intercity railway passenger flow also
accounts for a large proportion.

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of structure of passenger flows.

Figure 2. Schematic diagram of city distribution in Nanning-Kunming

transportation corridor.
ANALYSES OF RUNNING DOUBLE-DECK CONTAINER TRAINS IN
NANNING-KUNMING TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR
According to the report “Mid long term double container transportation
corridor planning” in China, only Chengdu, Chongqing and Kunming in the
southwest area plan the container central station and Nanning is the container
handling stations. Liuzhou-Nanning section, Nanning-Guangzhou line, Li-Zhanjiang
line, Guiyang-Guangzhou and Shanghai-Kunming corridor of Hunan-Guizhou
railway line, which is in connection with Nanning hub, are all double container
transportation corridor in planning. Of the lines in connection with Kunming hub,
only Liupanshui-Kunming section of Shanghai-Kunming line has got the condition
of running double container train, but Guiyang-Liupanshui section doesn’t qualify
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for the running conditions.

Currently, Kunming container central station has been built, and if the
Yun nan-Guizhou high-speed railway has the condition of running double-deck
container trains, the direct pathway will be established between Kunming container
central station, Nanning container handling stations and the container central station
of Guangzhou and Shenzhen which can fill the gap of convenient line network in
double-deck container corridor between Yunnan province, Guangxi province and
pearl river delta area. Double-deck container corridor is established in this
transportation corridor to increase the flexibility of double-deck container trains
transportation organization and further expand and perfect the transportation network
of double-deck container, which is in accordance with the technology policy of
developing express freight transportation in China.
According to the forecast of traffic volume, while the long term container
freight volume of up direction of through connection line in Nanning-Kunming
section is 585×104t per year and or so, the volume of down direction is about
625×104t per year. Yunnan-Guizhou passenger dedicated lines has the reserved speed
of 250km/h according to the construction standard, but if the tunnel section is
appropriately increased, the condition of running double-deck container trains can be
met, which need increased investment of 0.25 billion and account for 0.6% of total
investment.
DISCUSS ON LABOR-DIVISION OF TRANSPORTATION TO
NANNING-KUNMING TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR
Analysis of Targeted Speed in Adjacent Railway Network
While the targeted speed is over 200km/h for the Guiyang-Guangzhou
railway line, the Nanning-Guangzhou railway line and the converted Xianggui
railway line and Nanning-Beihai intercity railway all of which are adjacent to this
corridor, share the same targeted speed of Liuzhou-Nanning intercity railway, which
is 250km/h and the targeted speed of Kunming-Guangdong section in
Chengdu-Kunming railway line is 160km/h the speed of which is reserved for 250
km/h.. As one of the passage to sea in southwest area, its targeted speed should
match with the adjacent expressway net in order to facilitate passenger transportation
and resource sharing. Therefore, the speed of Yunnan-Guizhou passenger dedicated
lines should be 200km/h and reserve for 250 km/h.
Analysis of the Running Period of Passenger Train
In order to facilitate the passenger trips and improve the railway service
quality, the through and terminal of passenger train should have certain limitations.
According to the concrete conditions in different cities, the prime through and
terminal period of passenger train is generally 7:00-10:00 and 18:00-23:00. The
through and terminal of passenger train can be arranged from 10:00 to 18:00, but is
time value is lower than the prime time. Moreover, the through and terminal of
passenger train is generally not suitable from 23:00 to 7:00.Therefore, it is evitable to
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result in imbalanced distribution of the running passenger train. As the passenger

dedicated line of running passenger train, its carrying capacity should meet the
running of passenger train in whole day as well as in prime time and in peak period.
By means of OD analysis method, we consider the through and terminal time
of every passenger train all fall into the prime time, and the possible running schemes
of passenger train in pairs are on graphic analysis, as a result, the statistical results
are as follows:
(1)The operating time of the passenger train of up and down direction in this
corridor is respectively for 6h and 6.5h, and the running period is 6:00-23:00.
(2)The passenger train suitable for running “Sunset-Departure and
Sunrise-Arrival Trains” is 13 pairs among which from Nanning to Guangzhou are 4
pairs, and from Nanning to Zhanjiang and Haikou is both 3 pairs. The time range of
those trains passing this corridor is between 23:00 and 7:00.
(3)The running period of Nanning-Baise intercity train is 7:00-19:00 and can
be arranged to run in timetable optimization way.
(4)The running peak period of the passenger train is 9:00-11:00 and
15:00-17:00.
To sum up, the reasonable period of Nanning station and Kunming station in
this corridor is generally distributed in the day when the running peak period of the
passenger train is 9:00-11:00 and 15:00-17:00.
Analysis of the Reasonable Running Period of Freight Train
The container train, fast freight train and luggage and parcel train occupy
25% of the total freight trains. The running of luggage and parcel train and fast
freight train will be respectively 2 pairs and 2 pairs in 2020 and 2030, and the block
container train will be 8 pairs and 15 pairs respectively. The main cargoes are the
high added value freight and the goods suitable for container in Yunnan, Guangxi and
city groups of North Bay and also Pearl River delta city.
This corridor is mainly for the coal through train and transit train from
Yunnan and Guizhou to Nanning and Yiyuan, and also for the transit train between
Kunming and Guilin, Hainan, the west of Guangdong and south Fujian. Considering
the proportionality of the freight arriving at the station, the ordinary goods train is
suitable for 24 hours running.
Pattern of Transport Organization
(1) Nanning-Baise section
In this corridor, the labor-division schemes of the passenger dedicated line
and the existing railway are as following two:
Scheme I: The existing railway undertakes the local transport volume and a
few passenger trains, and the remains are undertaken by the passenger dedicated line.
Scheme II: While the existing railway mainly undertakes the mission of
running freight trains, the passenger dedicated line run the passenger trains and part
of the freight trains. The capacity utilization rate of the existing railway and the
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passenger dedicated line is approximate.

The specific comparisons of the two labor-division schemes are shown in
Table 1.
Table 1. Comparison of Nanning-Baise section in the Nanning-Kunming
transportation corridor.
parallel train
project design passenger freight utility ratio of
diagram
line trains trains the carrying
scheme year capacity
(pair/day) (pair/day) capacity (%)
(pair/day)
existing
2 13 45 38%
railway
2020
passenger
36 47 171 73%
dedicated line
scheme I
existing
2 16 45 45%
railway
2030
passenger
61 66 200 83%
dedicated line
existing
2 25 45 65%
railway
2020
passenger
36 35 171 66%
dedicated line
scheme II
existing
2 30 45 76%
railway
2030
passenger
61 52 200 76%
dedicated line
To sum up, scheme II is chosen to be the train running scheme in
Nanning-Baise section.
(2) Baise-Kunming section
In this corridor, the labor-division schemes of the passenger dedicated line
and the existing railway are the same as the labor-division schemes in Nanning-Baise
section, The specific comparisons of the two labor-division schemes are shown in
Table 2.
Scheme I is recommended for the transport organization pattern in this
section, that is to say the existing railway only undertakes the local transport volume
and running of travel train from Kunming to Shilin, and the remains are for the
passenger dedicated line.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1551
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Table 2. Comparison table of Baise-Kunming section in Nanning-Kunming

transportation corridor.
parallel train
passenger freight utility ratio of
project design diagram
line trains trains the carrying
scheme year capacity
(pair/day) (pair/day) capacity (%)
(pair/day)
existing
10 4 34 54%
railway
2020
passenger
27 37 188 52%
dedicated line
scheme I
existing
15 4 34 73%
railway
2030
passenger
38 48 220 59%
dedicated line
existing
10 3 34 50%
railway
2020
passenger
27 38 188 53%
dedicated line
scheme II
existing
15 2 34 65%
railway
2030
passenger
38 50 220 61%
dedicated line
CONCLUSIONS
In summary, the labor-division schemes between the passenger dedicated
lines and the existing railway in the Nanning-Kunming transportation corridor
proved to be feasible. By considering the characteristics of passenger flow and
freight flow in the specific section and applying different labor-division schemes, it
improved the regulating traffic dispatch of work intensity and the train operation
adjustment of the existing railway. Therefore, the quality of train operation is
improved and greater social benefits and economic benefits are achieved.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This study was sponsored by the Promising Star Project-Distinguished Teacher
＆ Backbone of Young Teacher of the Southwest Jiaotong University (2009).
REFERENCES
Fang Y., and Leng, C. (2008). “Analysis of influence of corridor share scheme on
traffic-carrying capacity.” Traffic and Transportation, 2008(5), 104-107.
Peng Q.,Yin Y., and Yan H. (2005). “Model of transportation corridor share based on
finished dedicated passenger line.” Journal of southwest jiao tong university,
40(6), 788-791.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1552
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Relationship between Transportation and Economy Development

Yue zhen HAN1, Ge GAO2, Yuguo QIU3

1
School of Civil Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University, Fengming Road, Jinan,
Shandong Province, P.R.C,250101;email:han12345543@126.com
2
Management College, Jilin University, People Street 5988#, Changchun, Jilin
Province, P.R.C, 130025;email:gaogew@126.com
3
Highway Management Bureau of Shandong Province, Shungeng Road, Jinan,
Shandong Province, P.R.C,250014;email:ygqiu@sina.com

ABSTRACT
With the method of principal components analysis (PCA), this paper
establishes the transportation development exponent and economy development
exponent successfully, which can represent the historic status, current status and
future trends of transportation and economy development respectively. It is feasible
to express the relationship of transportation and economy development with the two
exponents. In this paper, we choose two principal components to stand for the
transportation development exponent: transportation scale and infrastructure
facilities. The economy development exponent contains only one principal
component. Moreover, the paper makes quantitative analysis of researching the
relationship between transportation and economy. As a result, a mathematical model
is established to show the quantitative relation between them.

INTRODUCTION
At present, there are three major viewpoints about the relationship between
transportation and economy development in the research field. One viewpoint holds
that transportation is the engine of economy growth (Durkin et al., 1994) ,(Holtz et
al., 1995); the second viewpoint is alternative push-pull law (Zhong, 1999); while
the third viewpoint is the interaction theory (Zhao et al., 1995; Dadao et al., 2003).
The quantitative analysis methods include input-output method (Chuan, 2004),
system dynamics method, gravity model etc. However, such research cannot discuss
this problem generally. In fact, in order to study the relationship between the
transportation and economy development, it is important to consider this topic in a
systematic way. With principal components method and regression analysis, this
paper studies the relationship between transportation and economy systematically.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1553
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ECONOMY AND TRANSPORTATION PARAMETERS SELECTION

Parameters selection principles
 Scientific principle. The scientific principle means that all the parameters
selected should have their unique connotation. The integration of them can
reflect real status of regional transportation and economy comprehensively and
scientifically. At the same time, the concepts, symbols and formulas of all the
parameters involved should be precisely expressed.
 Practicality principle. Practicality principle means that all the parameters
selected should have feasibility and operatability.
 Comparability principle. Comparability principle refers that all the parameters
selected can make crosswise comparison and longitudinal comparison.
 Systematic principle. We should use systematic viewpoint and system science
methodology to analysis the relationship.
Economy parameters selection
From three aspects of economy scale, structure and efficiency, this paper
chose 15 economy parameters to build up the indicator system, which is able to
reflect the state of economy development completely (see Table 1).
Table 1. Indicator System of Economy System.
Category Name of Parameters and Symbols
GDP (T1)
fixed assets investment (T2)
Economy Scale
per capita GDP (T3)
loans of financial institutions (T4)
total energy production (T5)
retail sale of consumer goods (T6)
gross output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry
and fishery (T7)
gross industrial output value(T8)
Economy Structure
gross output value of construction enterprises(T9)

business Volume of telecommunication services(T10)

total value of imports (T11)

total value of exports (T12)
total local government budgetary revenue (T13)
Economy Efficiency deposits of financial institutions (T14)
total wage of staff and workers (T15)
Transportation parameters selection
From five aspects of transportation scale, tools, structure, layout and
sustainable development, this paper chose 24 transportation parameters to build the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1554
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indicator system, which covers both “transportation organization” and “infrastructure

facilities”. It can reflect the status of transportation development completely (see
Table 2).
Raw data of these transportation and economy parameters are available from
Local Traffic and Highway Statistical Data of Shandong Province and Shandong
Statistical Yearbook.
Table 2. Indicator System of Transportation System.
Orientation
Field of Name of Parameters and Symbols
Parameters
passenger volume of comprehensive transportation (S1)
passenger volume of highway(S2)
passenger volume of water transportation (S3)
passenger turnover amount of comprehensive
transportation (S4)
passenger turnover amount of highway (S5)
passenger turnover amount of water transportation (S6)
freight volume of comprehensive transportation(S7)
Scale freight volume of highway (S8)
Transportation
Organization freight volume of water transportation (S9)
freight turnover volume of comprehensive
transportation (S10)
freight turnover volume of highway(S11)
freight turnover volume of water transportation(S12)
inland ports throughput(S13)
costal ports throughput(S14)
private owned automobile quantity(S15)
Tools
total tonnage of civil ships(S16)
total mileage of secondary highway and above(S17)
Structure
navigation mileage of inland waterway(S18)
Layout rate of accessibility(S19)
rate of pavement(S20)
Infrastructure
rate of good highway(S21)
Facilities Sustainable
green ratio(S22)
Development
number of people per vehicle safety (S23)
number of people per thousand ship tonnage
safety(S24)
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT
EXPONENT AND ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT EXPONENT
The establishment of transportation development exponent
First, raw data of the 24 transportation parameters (See Table 2) from 1980
to 2006 are collected to form a matrix, and then the matrix is homogenized and
standardized. Homogeny means that all the parameters are positive polarity.
Standardization is an essential step before data analysis, using the following
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formula：
X i j − E( X j )
Zi j = (1)
D( X j )

After homogeny and standardizations, the data is processed by correlation

analysis to form a correlation coefficient matrix, using the following formula：
n − −
∑ ( xki − xi )( xki − x j )
rij = k =1
(2)
− −
( xki − x i ) 2
( xkj − x j ) 2

Based on the correlation coefficient matrix, the principal components analysis

is conducted. The results are shown in the following Table 3-5.
Table 3. Principal Components Extracted.
Component Eigenvalue % of variance Cumulative(％)
1 18.76 78.18 78.18
2 2.40 10.02 88.20
Principal components are extracted if their eigenvalue is greater than 1(see
Table 3).It can be seen from Table 3 that the first two principal components
contribute to the cumulative rate of 88.20%, reaching the cumulative contribution
rate requirements. It is suitable to extract the first two principal components from the
24 variables. This means that it is feasible to use the two principal components to
represent the development of transportation. Therefore, the first two principal
components are chosen as transportation development exponent.
Table 4. Component Matrix for Transportation Factors.
Variable X1 Variable X1 Variable X2
S1 0.9969 S11 0.9559 S20 -0.4981
S2 0.9956 S12 0.9506 S21 0.5293
S3 0.9952 S13 0.9425 S22 0.9098
S4 0.9949 S14 0.9404 S23 0.6105
S5 0.9941 S15 0.9106 S24 0.4896
S6 0.9940 S16 -0.9100
S7 0.9892 S17 0.9072
S8 0.9793 S18 0.9065
S9 0.9688 S19 0.6061
S10 0.9624
Table 4 explains the meaning of the two selected principal components in the
further. From Table 4, it can be found that the second principal component (X2) has
high correlation with rate of pavement (S20), rate of good highway(S21), green ratio
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1556
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(S22), as well as number of people per vehicle safety(S23) and number of people per
thousand ship tonnage safety(S24), which are all related to infrastructure facilities. It
can be defined as infrastructure facilities. While the rest parameters are mainly
relevant to transportation scale and are of high positive correlation with the first
principal component (X1), the first principal component can be defined as
transportation scale.
Table 5.Component Score Coefficient Matrix.
Variable X1 X2 Variable X1 X2
S1 0.0531 0.0013 S13 0.0502 -0.0777
S2 0.0531 0.0033 S14 0.0501 0.0455
S3 0.0530 0.0117 S15 0.0485 0.1155
S4 0.0530 -0.0010 S16 -0.0485 0.0909
S5 0.0530 -0.0033 S17 0.0483 0.0518
S6 0.0530 -0.0015 S18 0.0483 -0.0859
S7 0.0527 0.0241 S19 0.0483 -0.0983
S8 0.0522 -0.0641 S20 0.0430 -0.2073
S9 0.0516 0.0373 S21 0.0338 0.2200
S10 0.0513 0.0784 S22 0.0136 0.3782
S11 0.0509 -0.0681 S23 0.0113 0.2538
S12 0.0507 -0.0948 S24 0.0203 0.2035
According to the component score coefficient (see Table 5) and standardized
transportation parameters data of corresponding year, using linear weighting method,
transportation development exponent can be calculated (see Table 6).
Table 6. Transportation Development Exponent.
Year X1 X2 Year X1 X2 Year X1 X2
1980 -1.1388 -1.4453 1989 -0.6260 0.1357 1998 0.1247 1.0656
1981 -1.0407 -1.0588 1990 -0.5533 0.6003 1999 0.2497 1.2255
1982 -1.0569 -1.1965 1991 -0.5475 0.3772 2000 0.2967 0.7128
1983 -1.0333 -1.3728 1992 -0.4357 0.8210 2001 0.7160 0.7684
1984 -0.9535 -0.9866 1993 -0.3384 0.9575 2002 0.9378 0.0964
1985 -0.8848 -1.0141 1994 -0.2659 1.1134 2003 0.9167 0.0893
1986 -1.1388 -1.4453 1995 -0.1891 1.3510 2004 1.0985 -1.5633
1987 -0.7568 -0.5129 1996 -0.0844 1.4998 2005 1.6891 -0.5623
1988 -0.7037 -0.2919 1997 -0.0429 1.0886 2006 2.0705 -0.6346
The establishment of economy development exponent
The establishment process of economy development exponent is the same as
that of transportation development exponent. After principal components analysis,
the results are shown in the following Table 7-8.
Table 7. Principal Components Extracted.
Component Eigenvalue % of variance Cumulative(％)
1 14.46 96.38 96.38
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Table 8. Component Score Coefficient Matrix.

Variable Y Variable Y Variable Y Variable Y
T1 0.069 T5 0.060 T9 0.069 T13 0.069
T2 0.068 T6 0.069 T10 0.067 T14 0.069
T3 0.069 T7 0.067 T11 0.068 T15 0.069
T4 0.069 T8 0.068 T12 0.068
Principal components are extracted if their eigenvalue is greater than 1(see
Table 7). From Table 7, it can be seen that the first principal component (Y)
contributes to the cumulative rate of 96.38%, so it is suitable to extract the first
principal component from the 15 variables. This means that it is feasible to use this
principal component to represent the development of economy Therefore, it is
named economy development exponent. According to the component score
coefficient showed in Table 8 and standardized economy parameters data of
corresponding year, using linear weighting method, the economy development
exponent can be calculated as shown in Table 9.
Table 9. Economy Development Exponent.
Year Y Year Y Year Y
1980 -0.8510 1989 -0.6410 1998 0.2549
1981 -0.8545 1990 -0.6245 1999 0.3904
1982 -0.8507 1991 -0.5833 2000 0.5927
1983 -0.8336 1992 -0.5170 2001 0.8272
1984 -0.8009 1993 -0.4308 2002 1.2006
1985 -0.7641 1994 -0.2976 2003 1.6827
1986 -0.7441 1995 -0.1404 2004 2.2672
1987 -0.7194 1996 0.0033 2005 2.8244
1988 -0.6666 1997 0.1018 2006 0.2549
ANALYSIS OF THE RELATION BETWEEN TRANSPORATATION AND
ECONOMY
Taking transportation development exponent as the independent variable and
economy development exponent as dependent variable, a standardized multiple
regression equation is developed as follows:
Y = 0.986 X 1 − 0.124 X 2 (3)

From Table 10, it can be seen that both the equation and the regression
coefficients are significant. From Figure 1 and 2, it can be observed that the
residuals follow normal distribution.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1558
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Table 10. Model Summary.

Unstandardized
Coefficients Standardized
Independent T Sig.
Coefficients
Variable B Std.error
Transportation Scale 0.986 0.022 0.986 29.679 0.00

Infrastructure Facilities -0.124 0.022 -0.124 -6.813 0.00

=0.988 =0.987 F=1025.001

Figure 1. Standardized residual histogram. Figure 2. Normal P-P plot.

CONCLUSION
Transportation development exponent built in this paper should include five
transportation modes which are railway, highway, airline, water transportation,
pipeline theoretically. However, due to current structure, it is hard to organize all of
them. Therefore, the transportation development exponent in this paper is only for a
business scope of Communication Department of Shandong Province. Also because
of changes in statistical caliber or data distortion, the accuracy of the transportation
development exponent and the economy development exponent could be affected.
Therefore, it is desired that the associated departments could put in more effort and
resource to continue this work, so that the level of a scientific decision can be
enhanced.
REFERENCES
Durkin, J., and Wassmer, R. (1994). “Public infrastructure spending and private
generation in large US cities.” Working Paper. Lincoln Institute of Land
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1559
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Policy, Cambridge, MA.

Holtz-Eakin, D., and Sehwartz, A. (1995). “Infrastructure in a structural model of
eeonomic growth.” Regional Science and Urban Economies, 25 (2),131-
151.
Ji, Z. (1999). “Decision method of supply and demand relation between
transportation and national economy – “alternative push-pull law”.”
Journal of Wuhan Cadres Management Institute.J. (9), 7-40.
Lu, D. (2003). “China zoning development theory and practice. “Science
Press,Beijing.
Wang, C. (2004). “Quantitative study of transportation’s contribution to national
economy.” Highway.Joural of China .J. 17(1), 94-97.
Yang, Z. and Fan, J. (1995). “Transportation and economy development.” Economy
Question.J. (8), 42-43.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1560
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The Reasoning Process of Qualitative Reasoning Model of

Pedestrian Disturbing Delay

Minmin ZHANG1, and Dalin QIAN2, Xiaohong CHEN3, and Xiaoxiao WANG4

1
School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiao tong University, Beijing, ST
100044; PH 13141331626; email: 09121281@bjtu.edu.cn
2
School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiao tong University, Beijing, ST
100044; PH (010)51687141; email: qiandalin@jtys.bjtu.edu.cn
3
School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiao tong University, Beijing, ST
100044; PH 15120073017; email: 08114215@bjtu.edu.cn
4
School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiao tong University, Beijing, ST
100044; PH 15120075140; email: 08121419@bjtu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
Pedestrian disturbing delay is one of the most important pedestrian Level of
Service (LOS) evaluation indexes at intersection. And it is mostly studied by
quantitative methods at home and abroad. To meet practical needs of LOS evaluation,
qualitative reasoning model was put forward in this paper. First, the structure of
qualitative reasoning for disturbing delay was proposed based on mathematical
model of pedestrian disturbing delay, and the limited constraint set was analyzed
with the finite table causal analysis algorithm. Second, a qualitative and quantitative
model of disturbing delay was built by statistical analysis of sample data. Finally, an
example was given to show the qualitative value of the pedestrian disturbing delay
can be predicted from the flow rate data of vehicles and pedestrians. And the results
show that the model proposed in this paper is valid and feasible.

INTRODUCTION
When pedestrians wait for an acceptable gap or traffic flow to be interspersed
entirely to go through the crosswalk during the green light phase, the delay in this
case is called disturbing delay (Dai, 2008). Pedestrian disturbing delay is an
important indicator to evaluate the pedestrian LOS. Research on its computational
model can help to streamline the organization of traffic, to reduce pedestrian delay as
much as possible and to improve intersection traffic capacity.
Researches on calculation model of the disturbing delay at home and abroad
have already got certain achievements. Overseas study of the disturbing delay
focuses on characters of pedestrian behavior, selects the corresponding theory as the
principle of model development, and it embodies the notion of “people-oriented”.
The domestic models mainly base on the through theory and vehicle characteristics
to explore the mathematical models which match vehicle headway distribution best.
Compared with overseas study, domestic research is basically emphasis on the
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“car-based” models, and the characteristics of pedestrians are hardly considered.

Transportation system is very complex, and is filled with a variety of
human-induced uncertainties. The dilemma of traditionally quantitative methods in
application to complex systems leads more and more researchers to emphasize the
qualitative methods that can tackle the qualitative knowledge (Guan, 2003). As the
evaluation indexes of LOS don’t require precise values, this paper introduces the
qualitative causal reasoning theory, and builds the qualitative and quantitative causal
reasoning model and gives the practical application of this model.
The core of this qualitative and quantitative causal reasoning model lies in the
combination of quantitative spatial and qualitative relations, which mainly consists of
two parts：
(1) Change the mathematical model to a half semi-self-contained constraint
set, and use the finite table causal analysis algorithm to derive the causal structure
between the variables;
(2) Determine the variable range and quantitative spatial, and make analysis
of the qualitative rules and calculate support strength of the rules, then derive the
qualitative and quantitative causal model.
QUALITATIVE CAUSAL STRUCTURE OF DISTURBING DELAY
Mathematical model. Feng and Pei (Feng and Pei, 2007) observed that the
time headway of vehicles obeyed negative exponential distribution, and developed
the average delay calculation model of pedestrians as follows:
1 1
− (τ + ) exp( − λτ )
d = λ λ
exp( − λτ ) (1)
Where d is the pedestrian disturbing delay;
λ is the average of vehicle flow rate; and
τ is the critical acceptable gap of pedestrian.
The critical gap of single pedestrian can be calculated with the following
formula (Shi and Liao, 2002):
L
tc = + ts
Sp
(2)
Where tc means the critical gap of single pedestrian;
Sp means the average of pedestrian velocity; and
L means the sidewalk length, ts the pedestrian start-up time.
If the field observations for pedestrian platoons are carried out, the spatial
distribution of pedestrians should be calculated to determine the critical gap of
pedestrian platoons:
8.0( N c − 1)
N p = INT [ ] +1
WE (3)
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Where Np is the spatial distribution of pedestrians;

Nc is the total number of pedestrian;
WE is the effective width of the sidewalk; and
8.0 is the default value of clear width required by single pedestrian when
interference doesn’t exist between pedestrians.
To calculate the spatial distribution, the size and the critical gap of pedestrian
platoons should be estimated (TRB, 2000):
pe ptc + λ e − λtc
Nc =
( p + λ )e( p −λ ) tc (4)
τ = tc + 2( N p − 1)
(5)
Where Nc is the typical size of pedestrian platoons;
p is the pedestrian flow rate;
λ is the vehicle flow rate; and
tc is the critical gap of single pedestrian.
The model mentioned above will be used as the original model of causal
reasoning to obtain the qualitative and quantitative causal reasoning model of the
pedestrian disturbing delay.
The establishment of qualitative causal structure. In order to pursue the
causal structure described by rules, firstly, the model should be change into a
semi-self-contained constraint set (Shi and Liao 2002).
The model can be summarized as the following mathematical equations:
1 1
− (τ + ) exp( − λτ )
d = λ λ
exp( − λτ ) (6)
L
tc = + ts
Sp
(7)
8.0( N c − 1)
N p = INT [ ] +1
WE (8)

pe ptc + λ e − λtc
Nc =
( p + λ )e( p −λ ) tc (9)

τ = tc + 2( N p − 1)
(10)
On this basis, two initial value equations should be added:
λ = λ0 (11)
p = p0 (12)
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These equations (6~12) constitute the mathematical equations set of

pedestrian disturbing delay, and describe the constraint relations between variables.
Then the finite constraint set can be derived by removing the operation and putting
the variables into a limited table, and it is showed as follows:
(d τ λ) (13)
(τ Np ) (14)
(Np Nc ) (15)
(Nc p λ) (16)
(λ) (17)
(p) (18)
Then causal structure of the model can be derived from the
semi-self-contained constraint set by the finite table causal analysis algorithm (Shi
and Liao, 2002), and the process is as follows:
(1) Seek the smallest semi-self-contained constraint set A of the
semi-self-contained constraint set S: the constraint which contains the least variables
will be A , and its closure A′ should be found;
(2) Delete the closure and variables contained in the closure, then get a new
semi-self-contained constraint set;
(3) Repeat the process above until the new semi-self-contained constraint set
is equal with the closure.
According to the above procedure, the causal structure can be built as
follows：
{ (N c p λ ) ( N p Nc ) (τ N )
p (d τ λ ) (λ) ( p) }

The causal structure of the model can be showed as the following figure:

τ d λ

Np Nc p
Figure1. The causal structure of the disturbing delay model.
From the causal structure, we can find two cause variations of pedestrian
disturbing delay: vehicle flow rate and pedestrian flow rate. Pedestrian disturbing
delay, vehicle flow rate and pedestrian flow rate will be the primary variables of the
qualitative model and analyzed in the following sections.
QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE CAUSAL REASONING MODEL
In this section, qualitative and quantitative method will be used to analyze the
main parameters and to obtain qualitative relationships among the parameter space
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1564
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and the semi-quantitative model.

The specific process is as follows:
(1) Get the samples: according to the actual traffic flow conditions, select the
data of vehicle flow rate and pedestrian flow rate, and then calculate the delay value
by the mathematical model;
(2) Determine the qualitative range and the division of quantitative space:
determine the range of each parameter, and then use wavelet analysis toolbox to
make the decomposition of the sample data, and obtain the division of quantitative
space;
(3) Analyze qualitative relations and compute support strength: calculate the
delay ranges of various vehicle flow rate and pedestrian flow rate space
combinations, examine which quantitative space is covered, and calculate the
matching coverage which is also the support strength.
(4) Educe the qualitative and quantitative causal reasoning model including
qualitative rules and support strength.
The qualitative range and the quantitative space. According to model
calculations and wavelet analysis, the least upper bound of vehicle flow rate is:
λsup = max {λ} = 1000
；
The least upper bound of pedestrian flow rate is:
psup = max { p} = 1000
；
And the least upper bound of disturbing delay is:
dsup = max {d } = 40
.
The quantitative analysis tool—wavelet analysis is used to determine the
quantitative space of variables: use the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis
tool, load the data series, and then choose the suitable decomposition level and
decomposition functions to obtain decomposition results.
The results of quantitative space division of vehicle flow rate are as follows:
lλ1 = [0,194.78], lλ 2 = (194.78, 409.2],
lλ 3 = (409.2, 610.9], lλ 4 = (610.9,800.8],
lλ 5 = (800.8,1000]
The results of quantitative space division of pedestrian flow rate are as
follows:
l p1 = [0, 225.1], l p 2 = (225.1,396.8],
l p 3 = (396.8, 617.1], l p 4 = (617.1, 786.2],
l p 5 = (786.2,1000]
The results of quantitative space division of disturbing delay are as follows:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1565
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ld 1 = [0, 0.4332], ld 2 = (0.4332, 2.576],

ld 3 = (2.576,8.309], ld 4 = (8.309,14.58],
ld 5 = (14.58, 21.14], ld 6 = (21.14, 29.61],
ld 7 = (29.61, 40]
The qualitative rules and support strength. In this paper, the following IF-THEN
rule will be used to describe the qualitative relationships between the traffic
parameters (Feng and Pei 2007):
If QS ( x1 , tk ) = l1 ∧ ... ∧ QS ( xm −1 , tk ) = lm −1

Then QS ( xm , tk ) = lm Support strength ( s )

Where s means support strength. 0<s≤l. When s≥sθ=0.3, the rule is tenable.
There are 25 kinds of combinations of quantitative spaces between vehicle
flow rate and pedestrian flow rate. The range of disturbing delay of each combination
can be calculated by the mathematical model of the disturbing delay. According to
the comparison of the range and the quantitative space of disturbing delay, the
qualitative rules can be determined, and then the support strength s of each rule can
be calculated.
sijm =dijm/(fijmax - fijmin)
Where dijm means the length of the variable interval covered by the delay
range (fijmin, fijmax) when the qualitative values of independent variables are lλi and lpj,
and the qualitative values of dependent variable is the ldm.
Vehicle flow rate is the key factor of pedestrian disturbing delay, so it should
be a benchmark when describe the qualitative relationship between vehicle flow rate,
pedestrian flow rate and pedestrian disturbing delay. The qualitative and quantitative
causal reasoning model is shown in Table1.

Table 1. The qualitative and quantitative causal reasoning model.

QS(λ,k)∧QS(p,k) => QS(d,k) s(sθ=0.3)
ld 1 0.58
lP1
ld 2 0.42
ld 1 0.58
lP 2
ld 2 0.42
ld 1 0.58
lλ1 lP 3
ld 2 0.42
ld 1 0.58
lP 4
ld 2 0.42
ld 1 0.58
lP 5
ld 2 0.42
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1566
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Table 1. The qualitative and quantitative causal reasoning model. (Cont’d)

QS(λ,k)∧QS(p,k) => QS(d,k) s(sθ=0.3)

lP1 ld 2 1
lP 2 ld 2 1
lλ 2 lP 3 ld 2 1
lP 4 ld 2 1
lP 5 ld 2 1
lP1 ld 2 0.74
lP 2 ld 2 0.74
lλ 3 lP 3 ld 3 0.82
lP 4 ld 3 0.82
lP 5 ld 3 0.82
lP1 ld 3 1
lP 2 ld 3 0.78
lP 3 ld 3 0.78
lλ 4 ld 3 0.55
lP 4
ld 4 0.45
ld 4 0.47
lP 5
ld 5 0.39
lP1 ld 3 1
ld 3 0.40
lP 2
ld 4 0.60
ld 5 0.31
lP 3
lλ 5 ld 6 0.40
ld 5 0.31
lP 4
ld 6 0.40
ld 5 0.31
lP 5
ld 6 0.40

APPLICATION
Take Si Dao Kou intersection of Beijing as an example, and compare the
actual value and the qualitative value to validate the reliability of the qualitative and
quantitative causal reasoning model as well as the feasibility of practical application.
The Si Dao Kou intersection is controlled by a two-phase signal. The intersection
layout is shown in Figure 2.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1567
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Pedestrian Walk

Ped Walk

Ped Walk
Pedestrian Walk

Bike Lane

Figure2. Plan of Si Dao Kou intersection.

The following Table 2 shows the comparison results between the actual value
and the qualitative reasoning value of four crossing intersections. Through
comparison and analysis, the qualitative reasoning value and actual value are most of
the time identical, and the identical rate is 83.3%. It indicates the qualitative and
quantitative method is effective for the research of pedestrian disturbing delay.
For two-phase signalized intersection, if the vehicle and pedestrian arrival
information can be obtained, the qualitative value of the disturbing delay can be
obtained using the qualitative and quantitative causal reasoning model.
Compared with the original mathematical model, the results of the qualitative
and quantitative causal reasoning model are interval value, which meet actual needs
of LOS-determination better. When the result predicted by the qualitative and
quantitative causal reasoning model exceeds threshold value required by intersection,
we can take some related measures to control the arrival of vehicle or pedestrian to
reduce pedestrian disturbing delay and to improve the LOS of the intersection.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1568
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Table2. Comparison between actual value and qualitative reasoning value of

pedestrian disturbing delay.
lp Qualitative
t lλ ld
value
1 145 1 120 1 0.5 2 1or2
2 210 2 210 1 0.7 2 2
3 260 2 200 1 1.2 2 2
4 330 2 320 2 1.6 2 2
5 430 3 340 2 4.1 3 2
6 650 4 590 3 4.4 3 3or4
7 670 4 660 4 5.0 3 3or4
8 740 4 525 3 3.9 3 3or4
9 820 5 800 5 23.8 6 6
10 835 5 500 3 11.3 4 4
11 870 5 540 3 10.3 4 4
12 535 3 150 1 6.2 4 2
13 590 3 440 3 2.5 2 2
14 420 3 605 3 1.8 2 2
15 460 3 700 4 6.3 3 2
16 950 5 810 5 23.4 6 6
17 570 3 600 3 5.2 3 2
18 305 2 750 4 1.6 2 2

CONCLUSIONS
The paper uses the combination of the qualitative casual reasoning theory and
mathematical model to study the pedestrian disturbing delay, and derives the
qualitative and quantitative causal reasoning model. The model accords with the
range properties of LOS index value better, and it also simplifies unnecessarily
complex operations with better generality and practicality.
REFERENCES:
Dai, T., Du, R., and Pei, Y. (2008). “Simulation of pedestrian crossing delay at
intersections of urban road.” Computer and Communications, 4(26): 75-77.
Feng, S., and Pei, Y. (2007). “Research on delay of pedestrian crossing.” Journal of
Harbin Institute of Technology, 39(4): 613-616.
Guan, W. (2003). “Qualitative modeling method for macro-traffic flow.” China Civil
Engineering Journal,36(7): 66-71.
TRB (2000). Highway capacity manual, Transportation Research Board, The
National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
Shi, C., Liao, S. (2002). Qualitative reasoning methods, Beijing: Tsinghua University
Press: 95-100.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1569
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Traffic Status Classification for Highways Based on FCM Algorithm

Shuyun NIU1, Hailin ZHANG1 and Hao LIU1

1
National ITS Research Center, Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport,
No.8 Xi Tucheng Rd., Haidian Dist., Beijing, P.R. China, 100088;
Email: nsy@itsc.com.cn

ABSTRACT
In this paper, a real-time method of traffic status estimation for highways is
proposed based on the fuzzy C-mean (FCM) clustering algorithm. By using the
exponential smoothing method in data preprocessing, the short-term traffic
disturbance is eliminated such that the stability of the results is improved. The
method is verified by the data collected by ultrasonic detectors installed on state road
107, Fangshan District of Beijing. Traffic flow and time average speed are selected
as classification indicators. The false rate cross-evaluation method is used to evaluate
the results of traffic status classification. The evaluation result shows that the method
established in this paper is feasible and effective for highway traffic status
estimation.

INTRODUCTION
At present, many researchers contributed to the traffic status classification for
urban roads and freeway incident detection, such as the references (Guo et al., 2005;
Hirotoshi et al., 2009; Jiang et al., 2003; Jiang et al., 2008; Liu et al., 2009; Pi et al.,
2006; Sheu, 2002). The classical algorithms used mainly include California
algorithm, McMaste algorithm, exponential smoothing method and the standard
deviation method. In recent years, fuzzy clustering algorithm was used to the traffic
status classification for urban road, for example, references (Jiang et al., 2003; Jiang
et al., 2008; Pi et al., 2006). In (Guo et al., 2005), with K-means clustering method
and Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, an eigenvector was extracted to
describe the traffic status of an intersection by analysis on a mass of data from loop
detector, the eigenvector is used to evaluate the intersection’s traffic operating status.
In (Hirotoshi et al., 2009), authors studied the traffic statuses and jams occurring on a
two-lane highway with a few slowdown sections. In (Liu et al., 2009), it presented a
quantify measure model of traffic status according to a characteristic figure, which is
based on the analysis of remote transportation microwave sensor real-time data of
Beijing freeway and traffic flow theory and statistics analysis method. For the
freeway traffic status, the main method was the extended Kalman filter, such as
(Wang et al., 2005). Reference (Lao et al., 2006) offered an evaluate method, the
authors built a users-based model for the evaluation of the veracity of the traffic
status, and solved the problems brought by the vagueness of the traffic status.
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So far, a few people have investigated the traffic status classification for
highways. However, it is necessary to investigate traffic status for highways because
the characteristics of highways are different from urban roads. Motivated by the
above discussion, in this paper, we study the highway traffic status classification. By
using FCM algorithm, we establish a classification method of highway traffic status.
The short-term traffic disturbance is eliminated by using the exponential smoothing
method, such that the stability of the result is better. The method is verified by the
data collected by ultrasonic detectors installed on status road 107, Fangshan District
of Beijing.
This paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, the traffic status
classification method for highways is established. In Section 3, the performance
indicator, which is convenient to evaluate the classification results, is given. In
Section 4, the method is verified by ultrasonic detector data located in state 107,
Fangshan District of Beijing. The conclusion is in Section 5.
THE TRAFFIC STATUS CLASSIFACATION METHOD
The main idea of the method offered in this paper is as follows. Firstly, the
history traffic data, which contained the various traffic statuses, will be divided into
three categories: smooth, slow and congestion, and the cluster centers of various
categories can be obtained simultaneously through the FCM algorithm. Secondly,
according to the cluster centers, the membership function is established. Finally, the
highway traffic status in real-time is judged by finding the maximum of input
sample’s membership degree.
Specific steps are as follows:
Step 1: Error data processing;
In general, the traffic data collected by detectors contains noise data. In this
paper, we reject the error data by using mechanism of traffic flow. For example, the
sample is an error data if the speed is equal to zero and the flow is non-zero number.
Step 2: Exponential smoothing process;
We exclude short-term traffic disturbance of traffic data by using exponential
smoothing method, such as random fluctuations, traffic impulse and compression
wave, and so on.
The formula of exponential smoothing method is as following:
y (t ) = αx(t ) + (1 − α ) y (t − 1) . (1)

In which x(t ) is t -th traffic flow or speed in this paper, y (t ) is t -th

smoothing data, α is a weight coefficient and belongs to [0, 1].
Remark 1. The stability of the results can be improved by using exponential
smoothing method.
Step 3: Data standardization;
Because the magnitude of the eigenvalue of different indicators is different,
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for eliminating the impact of magnitude, indicators are standardized by the following
formula:
xij − xi min
rij = , (2)
xi max − xi min

where xi max is the maximum eigenvalue of i -th indicator, xi min is the minimum

eigenvalue of i -th indicator, rij is the standardized value of xij and 0 ≤ rij ≤ 1 ,

there is a positive correlation between rij and xij .

Step 4: Divide the historical traffic data into three categories and obtain the
cluster centers and membership function by FCM algorithm;
Firstly, we introduce the FCM algorithm.
We denote the set of N samples by R and denote the vector
(r1i , r2i , , rni )T by ri , R is a n × N matrix as following,

 r11 r12  r1N 

r r  r2 N 
R =  21 22 . (3)
    
 
rn1 rn 2  rnN 

Let c be the number of categories, µ ik represents membership degree of k -th

sample with respect to i -th sample and it satisfies with the following conditions,
µ ik ∈ [0,1], 1 ≤ i ≤ N , 1 ≤ k ≤ c, (4)

∑µ
k =1
ik = 1, 1 ≤ i ≤ N , (5)

N
0 < ∑ µ ik < N , 1 ≤ k ≤ c . (6)
i =1

The fuzzy C-mean clustering algorithm is based on the minimization of an

objective function called C-mean functional. It is defined by Dunn as:
c N
J ( X ;U ,V ) = ∑∑ ( µik ) m || rk − vi ||2A , (7)
i =1 k =1

where, V = [v1 , v2 ,, vc ] is a vector of cluster center which is undetermined and

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1572
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vi ∈ R n . || rk − vi ||2A is a squared inner-product distance norm as following:

2
DikA =|| rk − vi ||2A = (rk − vi )T A(rk − vi ) (8)

The minimization of the C-mean functional (7) represents a nonlinear optimization

problem that can be solved by using a kind of available methods, ranging from
grouped coordinate minimization, over simulated annealing to genetic algorithms.
Here, the stationary points of the objective function (7) can be found by using the
following Lagrange multipliers:
c N N c
J ( R;U ,V , λ ) = ∑∑ ( µik ) m DikA
2
+ ∑ λk (∑ µik − 1) . (9)
i =1 k =1 k =1 i =1

By setting the gradients of (9) with respect to U , V and λ to 0, we obtain µ ik

and vi by solving those equations, µ ik and vi are as following:

1
µ ik = , 1 ≤ i ≤ c, 1 ≤ k ≤ N , (10)
∑ j =1 ( DikA / D jkA ) 2 /( m−1)
c

and
N

∑µ m
ik kr
vi = k =1
N
,1≤ i ≤ c . (11)
∑µ
k =1
m
ik

We complete the fuzzy C-mean clustering by finding the cluster centers of

various categories and the membership values of all samples for various categories.
The above is FCM algorithm. By using it, we divide the historical traffic data
into three categories and obtain the cluster centers and membership function by
formula (10) and (11).
Step 5: Collect real-time traffic data which has the same format as historical
traffic data, furthermore standardize it by formula (2);
Step 6: Calculate the membership degree of the real-time traffic data;
Step 7: Judge the highway traffic status of the data and offer the result to
relative users;
Step 8: Update the input and turn to Step 5.
PERFORMANCE INDICATOR
In order to analyze the results, we use false rate cross-evaluation method.
The basic principle of false rate cross-evaluation method is as follows. Firstly,
record the category for every sample, the category is obtained by FCM algorithm
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based on historical traffic data. Secondly, remove a sample from the data set and
compose a new data set through the rest of samples, then obtain the new cluster
centers and the new membership function by using FCM algorithm again. Finally,
through the new criteria, judge traffic status of the sample, which was removed
before, and record the respective category. It is misjudged if the two classification
results are inconsistent.

Suppose the total number of historical samples is N , the historical data set is

divided into three categories through FCM algorithm, denoted by C1 , C 2 and C 3 ,

respectively, the sample size of C1 , C 2 and C 3 are n1 , n2 and n3 , respectively.

* * *
The number misjudged of three traffic categories are n1 , n2 and n3 ,
respectively, then the false rate is obtained by following formula:
n1* + n2* + n3*
p= × 100% . (12)
N
VERIFICATION
The classification indicators and the data introduction
Traffic flow cannot be used alone to determine the traffic status, because the
same traffic flow can correspond to two distinct traffic statuses. Speed can be better
reflected in the operational status of vehicles in a specific section or a specific time
period than traffic flow. Therefore, we choose traffic flow and speed as the traffic
status classification indicators.
We verify the model based on ultrasonic detector data. The data collected by
ultrasonic detectors, which are located on status road 107, Xiao Zhuang, Fangshan
District of Beijing, is taken as research subject in this paper. The data collection time
was on 2nd June, 2009. It includes traffic flow every five minutes and time average
speed every five minutes. In the following, we identify the highway traffic status
based on traffic flow and time average speed data.
We reject the error data in original data, and then obtain a graph of
relationship of traffic flow and speed, as Figure 1, where x-axis and y-axis represent
traffic flow and speed, respectively.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1574
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90

80

70
Speed (km/h)

60

50

40

30

20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Traffic flow (veh/5min)

Figure 1. Graph of Relationship of Traffic Flow and Speed.

From the above figure, we can see the highway traffic characteristics are
obviously different from urban traffic characteristics. At Xiaozhuang site, the speed
is between 50km/h and 80km/h and the average speed is 61.65km/h. The traffic
status of Xiaozhuang is good compared with urban traffic, but traffic status is relative.
For the same highway site, the traffic status may be different at different time in a
day.
Classification results
The exponential smoothing processing is important to the traffic status
classification method. The result is different without this processing in the method
we established. Following, we give the results at different cases.
Case 1. Without exponential smoothing processing in the classification
method.
After error data processing and standardizing for traffic flow and speed, we
get the cluster centers and the highway traffic status classification results by using
FCM algorithm. Table 1 shows the cluster centers of three categories, Figure 2
displays the classification results.
Table 1. The Cluster Centers in Case 1.
Traffic flow (veh/5min) Speed (km/h)
Smooth 16.00 68.18
Slow 36.01 59.97
Congestion 51.06 53.63
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0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00

Figure 2. Classification Results Chart.

In Figure 2, x-axis and y-axis are time and traffic status, respectively, and 1, 2,
3 represent smooth, slow, congestion, respectively.
On the standardized traffic flow and speed plane, the schematic diagram of
classification results is as Figure 3, where x-axis is traffic flow and y-axis represents
speed.

Figure 3. Schematic Diagram of Classification Results.

Figure 3 shows the results of highway traffic status classification and the
cluster centers of three categories.
Case 2. The classification method established in this paper.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1576
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We let α = 0.3 in formula (1) when we use exponential smoothing method.

Take traffic flow data as an example, we show the result in Figure 4. In Figure 4
x-axis and y-axis represent time and traffic flow, respectively. We can see that
short-term traffic disturbance of the traffic data is excluded by using exponential
smoothing method.
80

70 original data
data processed
Traffic flow (veh/5min)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00

Figure 4. Traffic Flow Distribution on 2nd June, 2009.

We get the cluster centers and the traffic status classification results by using
the method proposed in the paper.
Table 2 displays the cluster centers. Compared with Table 1, the speed of
cluster center in smooth is lower than Case 1, and the speed of cluster center in
congestion is larger than Case 1.
Table 2. The Cluster Centers in Case 2.
Traffic flow (veh/5min) Speed (km/h)
Smooth 16.33 67.91
Slow 34.21 60.26
Congestion 50.61 57.25
Figure 5 is the chart of classification results as following.

0
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00

Figure 5. Classification Results Chart.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1577
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In Figure 5, x-axis and y-axis are time and traffic status, respectively, and 1, 2,
3 represent smooth, slow, congestion, respectively.
On the standardized traffic flow and speed plane, the schematic diagram of
classification results is as Figure 6, in which x-axis is traffic flow and y-axis
represents speed.

Figure 6. Schematic Diagram of Classification Result.

Figure 6 shows the result of highway traffic status classification and the
cluster centers of three categories.
Evaluation
We evaluate the results by using false rate cross-evaluation method.
When using the classification method established in this paper, from Table 3
and formula (12), we can see the false rate is 3.4 percent, however, the false rate is
4.2 percent in Case 1.Thus, the highway traffic status classification method is
effective and the stability of the results is improved by using the exponential
smoothing method.
Table 3. Results of Evaluation Classification Method.
smooth slow congestion
The number of every category 109 97 82
The number of misjudge 2 5 3
CONCLUSION
In this paper, we establish a real-time traffic status classification method for
highways based on the fuzzy C-mean clustering algorithm. The classification results
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1578
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of this method are evaluated by using false rate cross-evaluation method. In the
design of the method, we add the data preprocessing. By using the exponential
smoothing method, the short-term traffic disruptions are eliminated, such that the
stability of the classification results is improved. The method is verified by the data
collected by ultrasonic detector which was installed on status road 107, Fangshan
District of Beijing, and traffic flow and time average speed are selected as
classification indicator. The results show that the method established in this paper is
feasible and effective for highway traffic status classification.
ACKNOWLEDGE
This paper is supported by Key Technology Research of Beijing Municipal
Committee of Transport the Framework of Road Network Management and
Emergency System. Thanks to Road Administration of Beijing Municipal Committee
of Transport for providing data to this paper.
REFERENCES
Guo, W., Yao, D. Y., Fu, Y., et al. (2005). “Study on the method for regional traffic
flow feature extraction and traffic status evaluation.” Journal of Highway
and Transportation Research and Development, 22(7), 101-105.
Hirotoshi, H., Shuichi, M. and Takashi, N. (2009). “Traffic statuses induced by
slowdown section on two-lane highway.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics
and its Applications, 388(7), 1196-1206.
Jiang, G. Y., Wang J. F., Zhang, X. D., et al. (2003). “The study on the application of
fuzzy clustering analysis in the dynamic classification of road traffic status.”
IEEE: Intelligent Transportation Systems Proceedings, 408-411.
Jiang, G. Y., Guo, H. F. and Wu, C. T. (2008). “Classification method of urban road
traffic conditions based on inductive cell data.” Journal of Jilin University
(Engineering and Technology Edition), 38, 37-42.
Lao, Y. T.,Yang, X. G., Yun , M. P., et al. (2006). “Evaluation of traffic status
detection method.” Computer and Communication, 24(6), 74-78.
Liu, S. Y., Guan, J. Z., Jiang, X. X., et al. (2009). “Quantify measure of Beijing
freeway traffic status based on characteristic figures.” Journal of
Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 9(1),
39-44.
Pi, X. L., Wang, Z, Han, H, et al. (2006). “Application research of traffic status
classification method based on collected information from loop detector.”
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 23(4),
115-119.
Sheu, J. B. (2002). “A fuzzy clustering-based approach to automatic freeway incident
detection and characterization.” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 3, 377-388.
Wang, Y. B., Papageogeorgiou, M. (2005). “Real time freeway traffic status
estimation based on extended kalman filter: a general approach.”
Transportation Research Part B, 39(2), 141-167.
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Nonlinear Pricing of Transportation Based on Consumer Heterogeneity for

Passenger-dedicated Lines

Chao ZHANG1 and Gang ZONG 2

1
Accountants, Management consultant, Ph. D candidate, Economics & Management
School of Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China 100124;
PH(086)13910932287;FAX(086)010-51893546;email:sol_in_china@126.com
2
Professor,PH.D,Economics & Management School of Beijing University of
Technology, Beijing, China 100124;
PH(086)010-67396265;FAX(086)010-67391993;email:zonggang1957@sina.com

ABSTRACT
Nonlinear pricing originates from consumer heterogeneity. It can achieve
Pareto improvement, and to some extents it can avoid fairness disputes of price
discrimination. The authors apply a consumer-parameter model on explaining the
use of the non-linear pricing theory in the intercity passenger-dedicated line (PDL).
The research shows that the success of using nonlinear pricing in PDL lies in
designing prices in accordance with incremental market. Lower prices may reduce
enterprise revenue, but also stimulate customer’s consumption. Nonlinear pricing
can restrain the lower price in incremental market brought by low prices, and thus the
original market would not be damaged, finally Pareto improvement can be achieved.

PREFACE
With the improvement of technology and economic growth, human space for
economic activities is expanding constantly. Economic growth resulting in space
for economic activities expanding, and space for economic activities expanding
resulting in economic growth, is actually two kinds of manifestations of the same
process.
Human’s economic activities are always conducted in a particular geographical
space. While the industrial or commercial activity in a geographic area is increased,
the activity and travel demand are inevitably increases. In the meantime, economic
activity concentrated in a geographical space will lead to an increase of transport
demand. Which will promote local investment in transportation infrastructure and
development of transportation industries that will perform as needed. On the other
hand, good transport infrastructure is one of the important conditions, in which more
economic activity will occur in this region or transfer to this region. Good transport
conditions will make this region more attractive to industrial and commercial
activities. Which will result in economic activities further concentrating in the
region, thus space for economic activities will change, which in turn bring more
transportation demand, and will further promote development of transportation.
Construction and operation of railway dedicated passenger lines, as a reflection
of ideas above in reality, will have a major impact on supply and demand relations of
railway transport, transport organization modes, which not only change supply and
demand of railway passenger, but will also affect significantly other transportation
modes. So the entire passenger markets will remarkable change. Whether railway
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dedicated passenger lines fully play its function, transport tariff is a key factor. In
the passenger transport of the short distance (200km or less), railways and highways
have a strong alternative. This alternative objectively contributes to patterns of
competence with each other among passenger transport modes.
In addition, the study of transportation issues, particularly issues of railway
dedicated passenger line, can not only focus on production of transportation, but also
pay attention on transport activity brought by human living and consume activity.
The above indicates that, while pricing in railway dedicated passenger lines, we
should pay more attention to environment of the entire passenger market and
consumer factors,
ANALYSIS OF NONLINEAR PRICING
Incentive compatibility
Nonlinear pricing considers every incremental consumer as a different goods
and charges differently. Nonlinear pricing is of distinct consumer from sex, age,
identity, and other personal characteristics to quantitative characteristics. Only the
consuming consumer can more than, any consumer enjoy lower prices of service in
theory. Therefore, compared to price discrimination in a general sense, nonlinear
pricing is more equitable, and can avoid the dispute of legality of prices
discrimination to a certain extent.
Braeutigam gives the general form of nonlinear pricing:
Where: E is the total income of the enterprise or total expenditure of consumer;
e + m1 y, y < y1
e + m y + m ( y − y ), y ≤ y ≤ y


1 1 2 1 1 2

E = e + m1 y1 + m2 ( y2 − y1 ) + m3 ( y − y2 ), y2 ≤ y ≤ y3



e + m1 y1 +  + mn ( y − yn −1 ) , yn −1 ≤ y
e is entry charge; mi（i=1,2,……n）is marginal price; y is quantity of consume; n is
price. While n approaches infinity, total price curve and marginal price curve
become a smooth curve, shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.
Information dissymmetry is a basic premise of nonlinear pricing and under
condition of information dissymmetry. Looking for optimal programs of nonlinear
pricing belongs to study scopes of mechanism design theory. Consumers know their
own type, but the enterprise don’t know, then design of nonlinear pricing should take
issues of incentive compatibility into account. That is to say, enterprise supply
consumers a program of nonlinear pricing and consumers can choose themselves in
this price program. This reveals the consumers type of information. Thus, under
the condition of incentive compatibility, pricing of n part is equivalent to n-1 pricing
of two parts by themselves. As shown in Figure 1, in fact, the bold solid line
presents pricing of four parts which is equivalent to there enter charges for e1, e2, e3,
and the use fees for the m1, m2, and m3 is pricing of two parts which can choose
freely. Then e1 < e2 < e3 , m1 > m2 > m3 , thus consumers have three distinct parts
according to the quantity they consume, and a choice of three pricing program of the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1581
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two parts, and can not consume in the dotted line of EB, BG, FC part.

m1

Marginal price curve ( n approaching infinity)

m2

m3

m4

mc

q1 q2 q3

Figure 1. Total income curve of nonlinear pricing.

Total income curve

E2
m3

e3
m2
E1

e2
m1

e1

y1 y2

Figure 2. Marginal price curve.

Pareto improvement
Opposed to the linear pricing where consumers have no choice and nonlinear
pricing which contains more programs of choice can realized. The Pareto
improvement, a linear price which is greater than marginal cost can be replaced by
nonlinear price of a Pareto improvement. Willing has proved it. If a type of
consumers distribute continuously (this assumption can be open), and lowest use-fee
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is still more than marginal cost under pricing of n part. At the same time the
previous n kinds of program can be maintained, new price program introduced can
make the use-fee lower than previous minimum use-fee, but higher than marginal
cost, and enter-fee higher than previous maximum enter-fee. That is, en > en −1 ,
mc < mn < mn −1 , MC is for marginal cost. Then consumer surplus which can not
change consumer behavior preserves, but consumers who chose new price programs
can obtain net surplus, enterprise’s profit can also increase (because new price is still
higher than marginal cost). Therefore, total surplus of pricing of n+1 part is larger
than that of n part, that is, pricing pattern of n+1 part is more economic effective than
that of n part.
CONSUMER-PARAMETER MODEL
The feasibility of nonlinear pricing lies in heterogeneity among consumers.
The same commodity service (even if marginal cost is same), and different quantity
combinations. Different consumers have different evaluation, and they are willing
to pay different prices. In other words, even if they encounter the same price
program, volume of consumer’s purchase has a huge difference. This provides an
enterprise of possibility of which enterprise can distinguish consumers by their
purchase volume. This means that, designing a program of good nonlinear pricing
needs to know information of consumer type, but the traditional total demand curve
which is aggregated conceals heterogeneity among consumers, which is not enough
to design a program of nonlinear pricing.
Brown and Sibley introduce type variable θ to reflect consumer type in
traditional demand function, that is QD = q ( p,θ ) , and the anti-demand curve is for

p = p (q,θ ) .Distribution of type variable θ can be obtained by statistics or

regression analysis of economic variables such as income, population, ethnicity,

geography, its density function is f (θ ) , distribution function is F (θ ) . θ Is

generally distributed as logarithmic normal distribution, and usually assume that θ

has a strong monotonicity, that is, demand curve of different consumers doesn’t
intersect, and ∂Q / ∂p < 0 , ∂Q / ∂θ > 0 . In fact, this approach decomposes total

demand curve to every consumer’s demand curve, and this decomposition contains
all information which total demand curve contains, because demand function
max
are D = ∫ p (q,θ ) f (θ )dθ .
min

Figure 3 shows consumer demand function which contains type variable

θ .When marginal price enterprise charges consumer is p (q ) , when θ is lower than

θ ( θ is consumer type variable of minimum consume volume), consumer will

withdraw from the market. Assume that consumer type variable of maximum
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1583
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consume volume is θ . while θ approaches infinity, p (q ) approaches c (c

represents cost). Necessarily, optimum pricing program intersects with the demand
curve at the G division from the bottom; this means that the price of the last
consumed unit which consumers of maximum consume volume pays is equal to
marginal cost.

θ
A
θ*
p(q)

B C

D MC=c
E

F
O

θ q*

Figure3. Consumer demand of type variable θ .

In the figure 3, with regard to consumer of type variable θ , its consume
*

*
Volume is q , and this consumer is also considered as marginal consumer of
*
quantity q , because there is no difference whether he purchases service of the unit
But when θ is lower than θ , the consumer can’t pay for the service of the
*
of q .
*

*
unit of q , on the contrary, they will pay for it. The price consumers pay for
*
decreases from p (0) (OB section) to p (q ) (FC section) with the increase of
consume volume. Consumer surplus of this consumer is a square measure enclosed
by arc-triangle ABC, and producer surplus is square measure enclosed by
arc-trapezoid BCDE, which express with the formula as follows:
q*
cs = ∫ [ p (q,θ ) − p (q )]dq ,
0

q*
ps = ∫ [ p (q ) − c]dq
0

Where: CS is for consumer surplus; PS is for producer surplus.

Society total surplus W is for：
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1584
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{[ p(q,θ ) − p(q)] f (θ )dθ + [1 − F (θ )][ p(q) − c]}dq

θ
W =∫
θ

Break even restraint enterprise encounters is for:

{[1 − F (θ )][ p(q) − c]}dq − F ≥ 0
∞
Π=∫
0

Under the restraint of break even, optimum pricing programming can be

attained by maximum social welfare of Lagrangian function, and the program meets
formula as follows:
p(q) − c λ 1 − F (θ ) λ 1
= ⋅ = ⋅
p(q) 1 + λ p (q ) f (θ )∂θ / ∂p 1 + λ ξ (q, p (q ))
Where: ξ (q, p (q )) is flexibility, while marginal consumers of type variable θ
consumes the commodity of unit q; λ is the variation degree of objective function,
while constraint condition changes; C is the cost. It can be found that this optimum
nonlinear pricing program is very similar as Ramsey pricing, because nonlinear
pricing considers every incremental market as different product markets, every
consumer incremental volume should obey Ramsey pricing.
THE ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RESIDENTS TRAVEL
Passenger transport demands in the economy are closely connected with
resident’s income level, and an increase of income level makes more residents
choose different modes of living and life. Resident can separate work from leisure.
With continuous increases in travel frequency and distance, they choose to go farther.
This can significantly increase demands of passenger transport. Improvement of
income level is proportional to space of economic activity.
Travel needs of residents generally refer to the need of travel and economic
capacity, that is, effective demand. Analysis and prediction on resident’s ability to
pay for travel is an important basis to draw up marketing strategy of passenger
transport and set up ticket price program of passenger. Economic and travel
characteristics, and economic capacity of different residents are different, and the
needs of travel environment such as transport tool, service item and service levels.
Analysis on economic capacity of different passengers can supply different levels of
transport services and set up different levels of passenger ticket prices. This can
satisfy passenger demands and improve its effectiveness levels.
Different travel purposes are bound to reflect different choices of travel modes.
According to surveys on travel purposes of passenger of major cities, travel purposes
of railway passenger is to visit relatives, and friends. While the purpose of highway
passengers is that of official business. At the same time, the source of expense can
be divided into two kinds, public expense and their own expense: passengers for
official travel demand higher on travel and waiting time, but passenger for private
travel mainly consider about travel costs but travel time.
Railway Passenger Dedicated Line sets together such as short waiting time, high
frequency, comfort and high-speed, which meets travel needs of residents, and forms
a strong competence towards highway passenger volume. From another aspect, now
our China’s railway passenger demands is lack of price elasticity, but short inter-city
railway has a strong alternative to other transport modes, and we can predict that in a
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1585
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certain range, their needs are flexible fully, and the coefficient of cross-price
elasticity is positive.
IDEAS OF INTER-CITY RAIL PRICING
Assume that there are two pricing plans: ①line ar pricing ,pricing is according to
marginal cost, set price of L Yuan each time; ②tw o-part pricing, set fixed fee of S
Yuan every year and unit price of N Yuan each time. Where: N<L; there is a point
of k times, S+N×k=L×k.
In fact, these two plans added together are three-part pricing, where the entered
fee is zero. As shown in Figure 4, according to less than K times, accounts are
settled by L Yuan each time, and accounts are settled by N Yuan each time to more
than K times. In equilibrium, there is no total expense of consumers in the dotted
line a, and b part. In this pricing program, consumers are divided into two types
through self-selection: one type is extra passenger who chooses L Yuan each time, or
passenger who travels less due to cost, whose annual lading times is lower than K
times; another type is the passenger who is regular to work and shopping to and fro,
whose annual lading times is greater than K times. Compared to traditional linear
pricing, the nonlinear pricing gives consumers more choices, so it improves welfare
of consumers and profits of enterprises, and finally attains Pareto improvement.
Obviously, consumer’s mode types are more than two, and there is a huge
difference of consumption between L Yuan and N Yuan every times. As shown in
Figure 5, when single fare is for L Yuan every time, passenger type who travels fewer
due to cost is θ , and lading times is q , then if a new choice, of which the fixed fee
is e′ , and single fare is p ′ (dotted line C shown in figure 4 ), N < p ′ < L , the
consumers will choose to consume in the quantity q ′ ,and can achieve net surplus cs,
cs = ABDC + BHD − e′ , the enterprise can achieve the net surplus ps,
ps = DHGF − ABDC + e′ , total surplus ts, ts = BHD + DHGF , thus total social
welfare will inevitability increases. A reasonable choice of enter fee e′ makes
consumer surplus cs and enterprise surplus ps positive simultaneously, and the
difference lies in that how total surplus ts is allocated between passenger and
dedicated passenger company. There is a similar analysis on the regular passenger
who travels to and fro.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1586
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θ
θ’
A B
L

C D H
p’

E F G
c

q q’

Figure 4. Total price curve.

price（Yuan）

a
S

e’
p’

t k times

Figure 5. Marginal price curve.

CONCLUSIONS
The feasibility of nonlinear pricing is originated from heterogeneity among
consumers, although the commodity and services are same. Different consumers
have different evaluations. Analysis shows that the advantage of nonlinear pricing is
price design according to incremental market, price reduction maybe low enterprise’s
income, but can expand passenger’s consumption, and nonlinear pricing nonlinear
pricing can lock low price in incremental market brought by decreasing price. This
cannot damage the original market, thus Pareto improvement can be achieved.
According to changes of in the transportation market, Railway dedicated
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1587
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passenger line carries out flexible, diversified competitive forms of railway rates.
On the one hand, nonlinear pricing reflects a pursuit of economic efficiency. On the
other hand, nonlinear pricing also shows that by this way, cost recovery issues of
traditional utility can be resolved to some extent. Meanwhile, policies of nonlinear
pricing of special railway dedicated passenger line have positive effects on mobility
of human capital and consumption space improved, and integration of regional
economy.
REFERENCES
Braeutigam.R.R., Schmalensee, R. (1989). “Optimal policies for natural
monopolies.” Elsevier, Amsterdam: R.D. Handbook of industrial
organization[C], 1989. 1289-1346.
Brown, S.J., Sibley, D.S. (1986). “The theory of public utility pricing.” Cambridge :
Cambridge University Press, 1986.
Fu, L., Jiang, X. (2008). “Research on Ticket Pricing in the operation initial stage of
Urban Rail Transit.” Modern Urban Transit, 2, 2008.
Lian, W., Li, B., Wang, Y. (2008). “Exploration on the passenger train operation
scheme of Beijing-Tianjin intercity railway.” Railway transport and
Economy, 6, 2008.
Stigler, G. J. (1971). “The theory of economic regulation.” The Bell Journal of
Economics and Management Science, 1971. 2 (1): 3-21..
TKY. (2007). “Transport and economics research institute, investigation report about
EMUs attendance rate.” Beijing: China Academy of railway science
Transport and Economics Research Institute, 2007.
Wang, B. (2004). “Non-linear pricing and welfare improvement on public utility
regulation.” Quantitative and Technical Economic Research, 6., 2004.
Xi, J. (2007). “Analysis on ticket system and marketing methods of French high
speed railway.” China Railway, 2007. 4.
Yu, C. (2003). “Natural monopolies and government regulation——Basic Theory
and Policy Analysis.” Beijing: Economic Science Press, 2003.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1588
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A Bi-criterion Multi-user Class Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Model and

Solution Algorithm for Evaluating Road Pricing Strategies

Lan JIANG1 and Jianying WANG2

1
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University, 600
Foster St, Evanston, IL 60208-4055, United States; PH (847) 467- 1330; email:
lan@u.northwestern.edu
2
Graduate School of Business Administration, Kobe University, 2-1, Rokkodai,
Nada-ku, Kobe 657-8501, Japan; PH (+81) 80-6128-9603; email:
wangjy99@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
To support the evaluation of road pricing strategies in a network context, this
study develops a bi-criterion multi-user class equilibrium (BMUE) model, which
aims to capture trip-makers; path choices in response to toll charges, and hence
explicitly considers heterogeneous users with different value of time (VOT)
preferences in the underlying path choice decision framework. The VOT is
represented as a continuously distributed random variable in each user class across
the user population, and a variation inequality formulation is established to
characterize the solution to the BMUE problem. This study proposes a solution
algorithm featuring with a Gauss-Hermite approximation technique to deal with the
normally distributed VOT, therefore finding the multi-user class (MUC) path flow
patterns. The applicability of the model has been demonstrated for the Dutch
national road network to investigate how VOT distributions affect the MUC path
flow patterns under the Dutch Kilometer Pricing (KMP) system.

INTRODUCTION
Road pricing has long been advocated as an efficient transport policy to
solve the problems of congestion, environmental impacts, safety and the like in
many metropolitan areas. To support planning, operation, and evaluation of various
road pricing schemes, a traffic assignment model is often applied to predict path
choices and the resulting network flow patterns, which in turn form the basis for
assessing the economic and financial impacts or benefits of proposed toll schemes.
Traditional practices limited their analysis with a single (average) value of time
(VOT) for all road users leading to less accurate traffic forecasts than those of
heterogeneous ones. It is now widely accepted that each user has a different VOT,
depending on one’s social-economic status, time of the day, and other factors (Small
and Winston 1999, Wardman 2001). By differentiating VOT in the traffic
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assignment models, more efficient and realistic forecasts of traffic conditions can be
gained compared with traditional analysis (Small et al. 2005).
Generally in the literature, there are two approaches to address the
heterogeneous VOT problem. The first one is the multi-class approach, which means
the entire population of road users is divided into a number of classes according to a
discrete VOT distribution. Yang et al. (2002) proposed an elastic demand multi-class
network equilibrium model, which categorized all the road users into finite number
of classes. Each class was assumed to have an average VOT. The model was
developed to investigate how VOT distribution affects traffic flow and profit
forecasts of private toll roads. Later, Han and Yang (2006) suggested a multi-class,
multi-criterion traffic equilibrium assignment model using the same logic of discrete
VOT to analyze the effects of second-best tolls and derive bound for the toll levies.
Recently, Zhang et al. (2008), developed a unified framework of multi-class, multi-
criteria UE-CN (user-equilibrium and Cournot-Nash principle) mixed equilibrium
and found that uniform link tolls supporting such equilibrium not only exist but also
lead to a system optimum.
The second category of heterogeneous VOT considers it to be continuously
distributed across whole road user population. Leurent (1993) was among the first to
propose theoretical framework for a cost versus time equilibrium model with
variable demand, continuous distribution of VOT, and elastic travel time functions.
Cantarella and Binetti (1998) extended existing fixed-point models for stochastic
equilibrium assignment model to deal with the heterogeneous VOT among users.
Neilsen (2002) also combined stochastic user equilibrium with continuous
distributed VOT functions estimated on SP-data to analyze the traffic condition for
Copenhagen Region. Recently Lu et al. (2007) presented a bi-criterion dynamic user
equilibrium (BDUE) model, aiming to reflect road users’ path choices in response to
time-varying toll charges using a simulation based algorithm.
The importance of including heterogeneous VOT into traffic assignment
models has been extensively studied in literature. Nevertheless, a general traffic
assignment model describing further heterogeneities among multi-user classes
(MUC) in path choice and traffic flow operation is still lacking. In this study, we
propose a bi-criterion multi-user (BMUE) traffic assignment model with
continuously distributed VOT within each user class for estimating network
performance under a given road pricing scheme. The extension of the proposed
traffic assignment model to include heterogeneous VOT among multi-user classes
will challenge the conventional approaches from both model formulation aspect and
solution algorithm design aspect.
This paper is organized as follows. The next section presents the assumptions,
and problem statement of the BMUE problem, followed by the mathematical
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formulation of the model in Section 3. The solution algorithm featured with the
Gauss-Hermite approximation of normally distributed VOT is illustrated in Section
4. The applicability of the model is demonstrated for the Dutch national road
network under the Dutch Kilometer Pricing (KMP) system, which is given in
Section 5. Conclusion remarks are given in Section 6.
ASSUMPTIONS, DEFINITIONS, AND PROBLEM STATEMENT
Given a road network G(N,A), where N is a set of nodes, and A is the a set of
directed arcs A. Let d odm denotes the travel demand from origin o to destination d of
user class m. Without loss of generality, associated with each arc (i,j) are two
essential arc travel impedances: travel time ( τ ijm ), and out-of-pocket cost ( cijm ),
which are required to travel from node i to node j for user class m, and would be
minimized in trip-makers’ path choice decision framework.
By assuming path travel disutility’s are additive of their respective link travel
disutility’s, the generalized cost perceived by the trip-makers from user-class m with
VOT α travelling from o to d along path p ∈ Podm is defined as:
m
Godp (α ) = ∑ (c
( i , j )∈ p
m
ij + α × τ ijm ) = TCodp
m
+ α × TTodp
m

The VOT α relative to each trip represents how much money the trip-maker
is willing to trade for a unit time saving. To reflect the heterogeneity of the
population, the VOT in this study is treated as a continuous random variable
distributed across the population of the travelers from a user-class, with the density
function φ (α ) > 0 . Note that the distribution of VOT is assumed known and can be
estimated from the survey data (e.g. Ben-Akiva et al., 1993; Hensher, 2001; Small et
al., 2005). The OD demand is also known a priori.
The key behavioral assumption made for the path choice decision is as
follows: in a disutility-minimization framework, each trip maker chooses a path that
minimizes the generalized cost function. Combined with multinomial logit-based
path choice mode, the assumption implies a deterministic path choice approach.
Based on the aforementioned assumptions and definitions, the bi-criterion
multi-user class equilibrium (BMUE) can be defined by extending Wardrop’s first
principle as:
For each user class and for each OD pair, every trip-maker cannot decrease
his/her perceived generalized cost with respect to his/her particular VOT by
unilaterally changing the path.
This study aims at solving BMUE traffic assignment problem, under a given
road pricing scheme, to obtain MUC path flow pattern satisfying the BMUE
condition. Specifically, the focus is to determine the MUC path flows and resulting
traffic conditions on the network.
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MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION OF BMUE MODEL

Since the trips with different VOT (now a continuously distributed random
variable with any given density function φ (α ) > 0 ) from multi-user classes are
assigned onto the same road network, the generalization of the classical static user
equilibrium traffic assignment allows a large number of classes of trips to be in a
simultaneous equilibrium. Their interactions are mainly reflected by the generalized
cost function which is assumed to be a function of all vehicles from all user-classes,
resulting asymmetries. Therefore, the BMUE model is formulated using a variation
inequality (VI) approach.
The following gives the VI formulation of BMUE problem of interest.
To find an f (α ) ∈ Ω(α ) , such that
∑∑ ∑G
m m
odp (α , f )  [ f odp
m
(α ) − f odp (α )] ≥ 0 ∀α ~ φ (α ) (1)
o ,d m p∈Pod
m

where Ω(α ) is defined as the feasible set of path flow vectors f m (α ) satisfying the
path flow conservation and non-negativity constraints:
∑ f odpm (α ) = d odm , ∀o, d
p∈Pod
m

m
f odp (α ) ≥ 0, ∀o, d , and p ∈ Podm
Proof:
Proof of Necessity
Suppose f satisfies the BMUE condition, and let G ( f ) be the corresponding
path generalized cost vector. According to the BMUE definition, for an equilibrium
MUC path flow vector f , the following condition can be established:
m
If Godq (α , f ) > Godp
m
(α , f )(= π odm (α )) , then f odq
m
(α ) = 0
m
If Godq (α , f ) = Godp
m
(α , f )(= π odm (α )) , then f odq
m
(α ) > 0 (2)

∀o, d , p, and q ∈ Podm , and ∀α ~ φ (α )

Where π odm (α ) is the minimum possible generalized cost for the trips with
VOT α from o to d in user class m.
Consider these path generalized costs G ( f ) as fixed at the current level of
path flow f . Because f satisfies the BMUE condition and hence only least
generalized cost paths are used, total generalized cost cannot be reduced by moving
flows from least generalized cost paths to other inefficient paths. For instance, if
path generalized costs are fixed as G ( f ) and Godq m
(α , f ) > Godp
m
(α , f ) then moving
flow f odq (α ) from p to q will lead to an increase of total generalized cost
m

m
by f odq (α ) × Godq
m
(α , f ) − f odp
m
(α ) × Godp
m
(α , f ) > 0 . Therefore any other feasible
multi-class path flow vector f ∈ Ω has total generalized cost at least as large as
f which uses only cheapest path. In other words, the BMUE path flow vector f
satisfying (2) is also the solution of VI problem formulated in (1).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1592
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Proof of Necessity
Conversely, assume that condition (2) does not hold, then there exists the
following situation for some (o,d,m) and path p and q: f odq m
(α ) > 0 , and
Godq (α , f ) > Godp (α , f )(= π od (α )) . Moving flow f odq (α ) from q to the cheaper path
m m m m

p will result in a reduction of total generalized cost by f odq m

(α ) × Godq
m
(α , f ) − f odp
m
(α )
× Godp (α , f ) > 0 .Let the resulting flow pattern is f ∈ Ω . Then Godq (α , f )  [ f odp (α )
m m m

− f odq
m
(α )] < 0 , in which case (1) is not satisfied.
From the above, if (2) is satisfied then (1) is satisfied, and if (2) does not then
(1) does not either. Thus, conditions (1) and (2) are equivalent, and solving for
BMUE flow pattern is equivalent to finding the solution of VI formulation (1).
DESIGN of SOLUTION ALGORITHM
To solve the BMUE problem, several modules in the solution algorithm need
to be systematically integrated. The solution algorithm to be developed features the
following two components: 1) path choice module, and 2) traffic assignment module.
Path Choice Module
Given a set of feasible path set for each OD pair, the generalized cost for a traveler
traveling from origin o to destination d on a path p with his/ her particular VOT α is
defined as:
m
Godp (α ) = ∑ (c
( i , j )∈ p
m
ij + α × τ ijm ) = TCodp
m
+ α × TTodp
m
= Vodp
m

m
where Vodp is defined as the observed utility cost.
By assuming random error terms are independently identically distributed
Gumbel variables, the choice for each alternative path p corresponds to the usual
multinomial logit (MNL) choice function:
exp(−ωVodp
m
) exp(−ωGodp
m
)
Pr m
= =
∑ exp(−ωVodpm ) ∑ exp(−ωGodp )
odp m

m m
p∈Pod p∈Pod

Where ω is the scale parameter

The choice probabilities further link the OD demand to flows associated with
each alternative intermodal path:
exp(−ωGodpm
)
f odp = d od × Prodp = d od ×
m m m m
(3)
∑ exp( −ω G m
odp )
p∈Pod
m

We assume an infinite scale parameter ( ω → ∞ ) in multinomial logit

function to describe path choice behaviors for all users. By this assumption, the path
choice behavior collapsed from a stochastic one to a deterministic one, i.e. the path
choice behavior in the framework of deterministic decision modeling for a given
VOT drew from the density function and in accordance with our BMUE definition
presented previously.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1593
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Assignment Module
If we decompose the generalized function used in VI formulation, equation
(1) can be rewritten as:
∑ ∑ ∑ (TCodp ∫
+ α × TTodp (α ) − f odp (α )]φ (α ) dα ≥ 0
m
m m m
)[ f odp (4)
m
o ,d m p∈Pod α

The continuously distributed VOT α in the generalized cost function,

G (α ) , is difficult to solve. Various numerical techniques can be adopted to
m
odp

overcome this difficulty. The continuously distributed VOT is assumed to be a

normal distribution. Therefore, we propose Gauss-Hermite approximation method to
overcome this problem especially for Gaussian distribution form. Gaussian quadrate
uses a weighted average, which the weights and the draws depend on the distribution
(the assumption of normally distributed VOT leads to Gauss-Hermite
approximation). About 3 to 10 Gaussian draws would be sufficient to get a good
approximation of the integral. It has been proven that Gaussian quadrate is
extremely efficient in low dements (Rose et al. 2007). The integral in (4) is only
over one random variable, therefore only over one dimension. It is very suitable of
Gaussian quadrate approximation method. By introducing the Gauss-Hermite
technique, the integral in (4) can be approximated as following:

∑∑ ∑ ∑ (TC
m
m
odp
+ α k × TTodp
m m
)[ f odp (α ) − f odp (α )]
m
o ,d m p∈Pod k

where k is pre-determined number of draws from the distribution function.

This yields merely a repeated deterministic user-equilibrium (DUE) problem
over different draws of VOT. The inner problem can be solved using an iterative all-
or-nothing assignment, which is usual for solving a DUE problem. However, now it
needs to be repeated for each draw of VOT and then weighted average derived by
Gauss-Hermite approximation.
Steps of the Solution Algorithm
In the following description of its functional steps the subscript i is used for
iteration counter. The algorithm is outlined as follows and the flow chart is presented
in Figure 1.
Step 0: Input and initialization.
Set iteration counter i=0. The inputs for each user class in this algorithm
include: (1) OD demand matrix for the entire feasible range of VOT, (2) road
network, (3) k pre-defined Gauss-Hermite draws and weights from VOT distribution
function, (4) passenger car unit set, and (5) road pricing scheme. Split the demand
matrix into sub demand matrices based on Gauss-Hermite draws and weights
(similar to multi-user classes) for each user class. Find an initial feasible shortest
path set for each OD pair and each sub demand matrix in the network based on free
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flow travel time. Perform initial assignment to obtain initial flow solution fi=0.
Step 1: Generate feasible MUC path set.
Set iteration counter I=i+1. Given the link travel time and link tolls, find
feasible path set for each OD pair and each sub demand matrix for each user class.
Step 2: Direction finding: MUC path flow determination (auxiliary
intermodal path flow).
Given the OD demand matrix, for normal distributed VOT, and the feasible
intermodal path set, call path choice module to obtain MUC path flow.
Step 3: Update path flows and path assignment – method of successive
averages (MSA).
Call assignment module to perform an AON assignment for each sub
demand matrix and update path flows using MSA and link travel times.
Step 4: Convergence checking.
In this step, duality gap is adopted as the convergence criterion. Duality gap
is defined as excess generalized cost relative to the minimum possible zone-to-zone
generalized route cost computed in current iteration,

∑∑ ∑∑ G − ∑∑∑ d odk G odp

m ,( i )
m ,( i , k ) m ,( i , k )
odp
f odp
m k
DG =
o ,d m p∈Pod o ,d m k

∑∑∑ d
m ,( i )
k
od
G odp
o ,d m k

Because the duality gap takes into the account the differences between
generalized route costs and weights these with the route flows, it is an effective
criterion to measure whether the Wardrop’s conditions are met or not. If DG ≤ δ
then convergence is achieved, where δ is a pre-specified parameter. If convergence
is attained, then stop. Otherwise go to Step 1.
0

Input and Initialization

1 i :=i+1
Generate Feasible NO
MUC Path set

k :=k+1
2 MUC Path Flow
Convergence
4

Determination (find YES Stop

decent direction) Met?

k :=k+1

3 Update Path Set and

Path Assignment
(MSA)
k :=k+1

Figure 1. Flow Chart of the Solution Algorithm.

REAL-LIFE NETWORK APPLICATION: DUTCH KMP SYSTEM
The applicability of the model is demonstrated for the Dutch national road
network under the Dutch Kilometer Pricing (KMP) scheme in Cube planning system,
which aims to capture users’ route choices in response to a pre-designed road pricing
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1595
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scheme, and hence explicitly considers heterogeneous VOT between and within
multiple user-classes in the underlying route choice decision framework.
Experimental Design and Set-up
The Dutch national network in Figure 2 is comprised of 17,936 nodes,
39,041 links, and 400 zones. The study time span is a 24-hour day which is divided
into AM peak (7.00-9.00), PM peak (16.00-18.00) and off peak (the rest). Four user-
classes are presented on the network: commuters, business, freight, and others
during all three periods. Users in each class behave differently (due to normally
distributed VOT) and each user-class has different mean and standard deviation of
VOT.
Highway
Other Road Types

Figure 2. Dutch National Road Network.

In line with Dutch KMP scheme, we apply two categories of rates in the case
study. Basic rate applies throughout the Netherlands on a daily basis and is
differentiated by vehicle characteristics and road type, namely for passenger cars toll
is 0.077€/km and freights is 0.185 €/km. Additional rate is differentiated by time and
vehicle characteristics and only applied to designated road and peak periods to
improve accessibility.
Interactions among user classes are expressed by passenger car equivalent
(PCE). Specific values are given in Table 1.

Table 1. OD Demand, Average VOT and PCE Values.

OD Demand (veh/h) Average VOT
PCE
AM Peak PM Peak Off Peak (€/min) (€/h)
Commuters 489,781 336,855 116,804 0.174297 10.46 1
Business 100,006 159,246 127,245 0.605071 36.30 1
Freight 101,516 93,443 112,499 0.426553 25.59 1.9
Others 149,282 327,992 311,561 0.151109 9.07 1

Particular interest of this case study is to investigate how explicit

consideration of heterogeneous VOT between and within multiple-user classes
affects the revenue generations and traffic conditions under Dutch KMP system.
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Therefore, we setup two key scenarios, S1 and S2.

S1 is a baseline scenario, which only considers the conventional discrete
VOT among multiple user-classes. Average VOTs listed in Table 1 are assigned to
four different user classes. By using average VOT for each user-class, it can be taken
as Gauss-Hermite approximation with one point.
S2 is designed to show the difference in toll revenues and traffic conditions
by considering heterogeneous VOT between and within multiple-user classes. The
standard deviations are assumed to be taken as a function of the means (average
VOTs), σ m = 0.3 × µ m . To approximate the normally distribution functions, we use
Gauss-Hermite five points in this scenario. Specific weights associated with certain
Gauss-Hermite points are also derived to be used in the Cube model.
Analysis of Results
For an assessment of the effects in economic terms, it is of interest to
consider total revenue collected by the Dutch KMP system from all road users over
the Dutch national road network. Figure 3 presents relative changes in total revenue
generation by time-of-day (TOD) periods and user-classes in Scenario 1 and
Scenario 2. Both basic rates and additional rates are considered here.

Figure 3. Relative Changes of Total Revenue in Two Scenarios.

As shown in the above figure, total revenue generation on a daily basis in S2
only increased 0.162% compared to the baseline scenario, S1. This may seem quite
small but the reason for such small difference in total revenue is that: the basic rates
are also applied over the network during all TOD periods. Even if road users choose
to avoid congestion tolled roads during peak periods and take another longer route,
they are deemed to pay for basic rates for using non-congestion tolled roads.
Therefore, by assuming normally distributed VOT among multiple user-classes, no
big difference will occur in total revenue generation.
Nonetheless, bigger relative changes are observed by TOD periods and user-
classes, which imply difference in route choice behaviors between two scenarios,
considering heterogeneous VOT between and within multiple-user classes. As can
be seen from Figure 3, toll paid by users from commuters and business classes is
overestimated during all TOD periods in S1. On the other hand, S1 tends to give
underestimated revenue generation from users in freight and others classes. For the
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reason that all road users have to pay basic rates throughout the Netherlands and
during all periods, it will offset the changes in total revenue generation in S2. If we
only consider additional rates during peak periods, the drawback of the discrete
VOT among multiple user classes will become more distinct.
Although only small changes are found in total revenue generation on a daily
basis, big differences occurred when considering traffic condition in terms of vehicle
traveled time (VTT). A comparison of VTT experienced by all road users is given in
Figure 4.

Figure 4. Comparisons of VTT in Two Scenarios.

The failure of depicting heterogeneities within user-classes (S1) gives
optimistic predictions of the traffic condition under the given set of rates from Dutch
KMP system. The actual VTT experienced by the road users could be 7.461% (a
summation of total outputs over all user class or all TOD periods in the above figure)
more as computed in S2. Figure 4 illustrates even larger biased predictions by user-
classes and TOD periods.
An important clarification is that normally distributed VOTs within user-
classes, business and freight user classes, with higher average VOT experience
longer travel time over the road network compared with those estimated in S1.
Fluctuations in VOT among these two user classes result in route choice changes. In
addition, road users from business class and freight class normally make longer trips
than those from the other two user classes. The average vehicle traveled times in AM
peak of business class and freight user classes are 45.58min/veh and 68.86min/veh
compared with 27.74min/veh and 30.14min/veh for commuters and others
respectively (calculated from S1). An increase in travel time for business and freight
users will not bother them too much compared with the users who make shorter trips.
Therefore, they might prefer to take a cheaper route with some congestion instead of
additional tolled ones. For the same reason, there are a proportion of road users in
the lower average VOT class, commuters and others classes have relative higher
VOT compared to their counterparts. They are willing to pay for a less congested
trip.
From the above analysis on relative change in VTTs in two scenarios, we can
learn that the inclusion of normally distributed VOTs within multiple user class does
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lead to considerable changes in traffic condition in terms of VTT. Travel situations

for different user classes during different TOD periods will be either overestimated
or underestimated. The capability to depict the differences in route choice behaviors
among a certain user class is an empirically realistic property of the model.
CONCLUSION REMARKS
With increasing interest in road pricing strategies to alleviate congestion and
improve network performance, there is a need to develop a traffic assignment model
capable of capturing heterogeneous users’ responses to toll charges for design and
evaluation of toll schemes. In this study a BMUE with heterogeneous VOT traffic
assignment model has been proposed. The inclusion of greater behavior realism
results in more realistic traffic forecasts and enables policy makers and planners to
make better decisions concerning the designs of road pricing strategies.
The applicability of the model has been demonstrated for the Dutch national
road network under the Dutch KMP system. Results indicate that estimation of
network performance, obtained from the discrete VOT scenario, would be biased if
user heterogeneity within multiple user-classes is not captured. A wide variety of
model applications can be realized based on the rich modeling capabilities of the
proposed model in capturing greater user heterogeneity in terms of VOT. In short,
the outputs of the developed model present a picture of possible impacts of the
Dutch KMP policy, especially from the road users’ perspective. While it does not tell
the whole story, it does provide some directions for determining whether the
objective(s) of the Dutch KMP policy has (have) been achieved and how Dutch
KMP policy affects the outcomes of interest of any of the relevant actors throughout
the society. It should be emphasized that the outputs of the model does not
automatically provide simple policy analysis to the complex Dutch KMP policy
design problem. They can merely provide better predictions of traffic conditions that
allow us to consciously translate them into something which feed back into decision
making and provide relevant actors with information. However, this process is rarely
as simple or straightforward as the model makes it seem. It will depend on who will
use these outputs and their approaches of the translation process, and the specific
interests for which the translation will takes place.
We conclude that the BMUE traffic assignment model developed in this
study is capable to capture greater behavioral realism. In addition, the model is
computationally efficient for large-scale network applications. A variety of research
directions can be continued to further extend the model. One important direction for
further research is consideration of the elastic demand to improve the prediction
power of the assignment model.
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REFERENCES:
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Han, D., and Yang, H. (2006). “The multi-class, multi-criterion traffic equilibrium
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And Winston, C. Published by: Brookings Institution Press.
Small, K.A., Winston, C., and Yan, J. (2005). “Uncovering the distribution of
motorists’ preferences for travel time and reliability.” Econometrica,
73(4), 1367-1382.
Wardman, M (2001). “A review of British evidence on time and service quality
valuations.” Transportation Research, Part E, 37, 107-128.
Yang, H., Tang W.H., Cheung, W.M., and Meng, Q. (2002). “Profitability and
welfare gain of private toll roads in a network with heterogeneous users.”
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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1600
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Method and Strategy for Parallelizing Microscopic Traffic Simulation

Anning NI1, Zhicai JUAN2 and Jiaoni YANG3

1
Institute of Naval Architecture, Ocean & Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong
University, Shanghai City ; Dongchuan Rd. 800, China, PH (86) 21- 52301396;
FAX (86) 21- 52301396; email: nianning@sjtu.edu.cn
2
Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University,
Shanghai City ; Fahuazhen Rd. 535, China, PH (86) 21- 52301396; FAX (86) 21-
52301396; email: zcjuan@sjtu.edu.cn
3
Institute of Technology, Linkoping University, Sweden, email:
joanie.yang@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
Compare to field traffic evaluation, computer simulation is less time and cost
consuming, safer and easier to perform. With the development of parallel computing
technologies, microscopic traffic simulation of large-scale road network can be
achieved faster. This paper will first study the feasibility of applying microscopic
parallel simulation on traffic network. Then, evaluate and compare the algorithm of
two parallel traffic simulation systems AIMSUN and TRANSIMS.. Finally suitable
method and strategy on the parallel microscopic traffic simulation is recommended.

FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS FOR PARALLEL MICROSCOPIC TRAFFIC

SIMULATION
Computer simulation, which is a viable tool in decision making and
assessment process, is proved to be time and cost saving, safe and feasibility.
Although, microscopic simulation system can simulate traffic conditions more
realistic and accurate than macroscopic simulation, it requires greater computing
capability. In the past, microscopic simulation can only be applied to local road
network due to the limitation of computer capacity. With the development of parallel
computing technologies, fast microscopic simulation in large-scale road network can
be achieved (Chen, 1999, Qiu et al., 2004).
There are three aspects of parallel microscopic traffic simulation in the urban
transportation network.
① Vehicles behavior simulation modules and other related modules in parallel
simulation, namely, functional decomposition.
② Regarding the random nature of transportation system, different random numbers
are generated in several simulation experiments to obtain more reliable simulation
results. These simulations can be assigned to various processors to perform parallel
computation.
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③ Parallel processing can be applied to simulate road network traffic flow in

different regions of space, namely, space domain decomposition (Wei et al., 2001).
AIMSUN parallel simulation method
AIMSUN which is an urban road network traffic simulation system developed
in Spain, can represent the operating conditions of traffic flow not only on the urban
expressways bus also on city streets. Time based step forward micro-simulation
method is used to describe the driver behavior in detail. The thread package of SUN
Solaris 2.4 (SUN SPARC Server 1000) is used on the parallel version of AIMSUN; it
can be implemented on a parallel computing platform with eight processors and
sharable memory. Thread is assembled according to certain sets of sequential
instruction; each thread can share the data and the code with the same storage space
under multithreading environment. In a multithreading parallel program application,
an explicit synchronizing method is required to prevent the deadlock phenomenon
caused by multithreading accessing the same address (space) at the same time.
Therefore, if the sub-task after partition is completely independent of each other, the
time overhead due to the synchronization will be minimized (Barceló et al., 1996).
When using AIMSUN, the road network is divided into entities like lanes,
intersections as virtual lanes and so forth, and then the vehicle status of these entities
is updated in accordance with certain order. But it is not suitable to regard one entity
like road segments or intersections as the only calculation units of simulation,
because when updating the vehicle status, vehicle information from the adjacent
entities (lanes) is also required. Therefore, the adjacent entities should be considered
to perform the lane changing or to determine the vehicle status after entering to the
next entity. In AIMSUN the combination of these entities are called block, which can
be assigned to a separate thread to perform simulation calculation. AIMSUN’s
dividing rules are as follows:
① All lane entities in a road segments belong to the same block.
② All virtual lanes in one intersection are included in the same block.
③ All entrance lanes as well as the virtual lanes in the intersection belong to the
same block.
For example, in figure 1, vehicle 3 in lane entity 2 tries to change to lane entity
3 via turning right; therefore, the status of vehicle 5 and vehicle 6 in lane entity 3
should be known in order to perform such lane changing. Meanwhile, when vehicle 2
in lane entity 1 enters to the intersection of virtual lane entity 4, the status of vehicle
4 should also be known. According to the rules of block partition mentioned above,
three lane entities in the road segment as well as three virtual lane entities in the
intersection belong to the same block.
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Link Intersection

Entity1 1 2 Entity4
Entity2 3 4 Entity5

Entity3 5 6
7
Entity6

Figure 1. Block partition method of AIMSUN parallel implementation.

In the parallel simulation process, simulation of traffic flow in each block is
achieved by adopting one single thread. When the road network entities from the two
blocks are independent of each other, it is considered that these two blocks are not
connected. In this case, both blocks simulations are achieved simultaneously by
two threads. In order to obtain the maximum block number of the parallel simulation
in the road network, the concept of combining blocks to a layer is introduced. The
blocks with parallel performance in each layer are unconnected; therefore, it is
unnecessary to implement synchronization among the threads with parallel
performance. Coloring algorithm with the undirected graph is adopted to combine
blocks to one layer. Implementation methods are:
① each block is regarded as a node with the undirected graph in the road network.
② an edge is used to link the interconnected blocks.
For instance, according to the undirected graph of figure 2, as long as the
coloration with two tints is adopted, it is guaranteed that the color of any two
connected nodes is not the same. Therefore, this undirected graph is divided into two
layers:
Layer one (red): node 1, 4, 5, 6
Layer two (blue): node 2, 3

Figure 2. Coloring layer of the undirected graph.

The traffic flow simulation of each layer in the road network must be performed
orderly to preserve the simulation logic. In the road network, coloring algorithm with
the heuristic graph is adopted to combine all the blocks to a layer. It is fine that the
layer number is not the minimum as long as blocks within a layer are as many as
possible. This way, more threads can be assigned to perform the parallel simulation
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algorithm, thereby reduce simulation time.

All block in the road network must be assigned to a layer before starting
simulation. During the simulation, blocks in each layer are sorted and stored in a
queue, and one thread is assigned to each block to perform the simulation
simultaneously. After one layer is done, AIMSUN will move on to simulate the next
layer.
The control strategy implemented in AIMSUN parallel simulation is: in the very
beginning of the simulation, the multiple sub-threads comes from the main thread, its
number is determined by the users depending on the number of processors available
for simulation. The sub-thread will be in dormant if it is not assigned to process a
block; the sub-thread will be activated by the main thread if the sub-thread is
required to simulate traffic flow in a block. When simulation task assigned to the
sub-thread is done, a message is sent to inform the main thread to proceed to the next
simulation. There are two disadvantages in such parallelizing method:
① Update of vehicle status in another layer can be started only when the simulation
in the current layer is completed, that leads to adding extra synchronization code,
② Due to the segmentation strategy, number of block in each layers are not equal.
Sometimes the computing time required on the layer with small number of block is
much less than that of the larger number block, which leads to decreasing the
processor utilization rate.
TRANSIMS parallel simulation method
TRANSIMS (TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System) is a
microscopic traffic simulation system developed by U.S. Los Alamos National
Laboratory. Its goal is to apply micro-simulation to the transportation planning
process. The subject of a transportation planning study often involves a large area
with millions of travelers, and the planning period is around 10 to 20 years. It
requires fast traffic simulation in a large-scale road network. When traffic condition
such as road condition changes in the system, it shall take the travelers’ behavior
change and route choice change into consideration. The main components of
TRANSIMS contain population generation module, residential activity generation
module, travel mode and route choice module and microscopic traffic simulation
module in which the cellular automation model is adopted and the parallel processing
is implemented (Rickert et al., 2001, Nagel et al., 1994).
The domain decomposition strategy is adopted in the TRANSIMS parallel
simulation module, which means the geographical area of the network is divided into
several parts with similar size, and each processor responsible for one part of the
simulation calculation in the parallel computing platform. To ensure efficiency, the
following two conditions should be satisfied:
① The size of each region which can be measured by the total length of road
segments in the region shall be the same,
② The interaction road segment between the adjacent regions maintains in the range
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shall be as small as possible. This parameter in the 1999 version of TRANSIMS is

set to 37.5m. This is quite small compare to the total length of the road segments.
Therefore, the computing task in each region has greater independency when
performing the parallel simulation.
When dividing road network, the division point is located at the middle of a
road segment. The data from the divided road segment is stored in two processors.
Each processor is responsible to simulate traffic on its own half of road segment. In
order to ensure that the information from the division road segment is consistent in
both processors, information on the edge region of the road segment is transmit to
one another. The steps of traffic simulation calculation on the division road segment
are as follows:
① Implement road change
② Exchange information on the edge of the region
③ Calculate vehicle speed and vehicle position at the end of time increment
④ Exchange information on the edge of the region once again
Master-slave mode is adopted in the TRANSIMS parallel simulation, i.e.,
simulation is performed by the main program, and the subordinate program is
controlled by the main program, meanwhile the computing load from the entire road
network is assigned to each subordinate program. During simulation, the main
program is responsible for controlling all the computing process of the subordinate
program. As the number of subordinate program increases, the computing load from
the main program will not reduce, or even show an increasing trend. Therefore,
besides the simulation initialization and global synchronization, the main program
will not be assigned any other task.
PARALLEL MICROSCOPIC SIMULATION METHOD AND STRATEGY
The fundamental ideas of the parallel traffic simulation model described in this
paper are as follows. First, the simulation task of the entire road network is divided
into several subtasks. Then these subtasks are assigned to the different processors to
perform calculation synchronously. Hence, will not only reduce the run-time of the
simulation program but also improve the simulation speed, as shown in figure 3.
A1
A1 Processor1

A2
Processor2

A3
Processor3
A2 A3

Figure 3. Fundamental idea of the parallel traffic simulation.

Discrete event simulation and domain decomposition method
Traffic simulation model is an abstract expression of simulating a real
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transportation system. The discrete event simulation of the transportation system is

achieved by a series of event-drive discrete traffic status. Its clock advancing
mechanism can be divided into the earliest event-driven and the equivalent time step
advancing. The earliest event-driven essentially relies on the serial mechanism,
which is inappropriate to perform the traffic network simulation via parallelizing. In
order to improve simulation speed, different parts of the computing task can be
assigned to multiple processors simultaneously through parallel processing, thereby
significantly shorten the time required for simulation.
The common methods of assigning task (after division) to multiple processors
are: functional decomposition, event decomposition and domain decomposition.
Domain decomposition is regarded as a relatively more effective method and can be
applied to the distributed parallel simulation. There are two domain decomposition
methods, namely, time domain decomposition and space domain decomposition.
Time domain decomposition method is to divide entire simulation time into multiple
time pieces and each processor is responsible to calculate the status variable within
one single time piece. While space domain decomposition method is to divide entire
simulation model (network) into multiple sub-models and each sub-model is
assigned to one processor for implementation. The advantages of the space domain
decomposition model are 1) can be applied to almost any simulation models and 2) is
more expandable, i.e., better for simulation of a larger system. On the contrary, time
domain decomposition method is not so applicable and expandable.
Normally microscopic traffic simulation adopts the discrete simulation method
which is time-driven. In another word, elements such as vehicle position, vehicle
speed, traffic signal status, etc are updated successively at a set time interval.
Considering the advantage of the space domain decomposition and the characteristic
of the microscopic traffic simulation, this paper will implement a parallel
microscopic traffic simulation using the space domain decomposition.
Parallel computing model of transportation network
In order to determine the parallel algorithm that is suitable for microscopic
network traffic simulation, CPU time for every step of the simulation must first be
known, and then to decide which part of the simulation operation should be
parallelization. Barceló and Saux (Barceló and Saux, 1996) found that in each
simulation step, 94% of the total simulation time were spent on the vehicle status
update module follow by 3.5% on the status update module of traffic detection and
control equipment. Therefore, these two modules are the best candidate for
parallelization.
When establishing the parallel simulation model, two issues must be considered:
① how to split the entire simulation task into multiple subtasks; and
② how to perform the data exchange between each sub-task.
In general, there are two methods of communication between the subtasks that
are assigned to different processors: the sharable spaces of the memory address, i.e.,
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all processors have access to the common address space; and the message
transmission between the processors. Both methods have their advantages and
disadvantages.
In the first method, all processors carry out calculation independently but share
the same memory resources, i.e., they have access to all variables stored in the
memory. Although this method is easier to achieve parallel programming, as the
number of processor for parallel calculation increases, due to the limitation of the
memory bandwidth, it leads to serious memory access bottleneck. Moreover, the
price of the sharable memory parallel machine is more expensive.
For above reasons, this study adopts master-slave calculation module which is
based on the message transmission to achieve the parallel microscopic traffic
simulation. In this model, the main control processor and the subordinate nodal
machine composes to an integral unit and cooperates with each other to complete the
task. They communicate with each other through message transmission. Such
distributed computing structure normally contains at least one main control processor
and multiple subordinate nodal machines used for the sub-network traffic simulation.
The main control machine is responsible for all the tasks that related to coordinate
between the traffic simulations in each sub-network. Its main role is to synchronize
the simulation clock in each sub-network, i.e., to synchronize clocks either at every
simulation step or at a specific time interval. To achieve this, the main control
processor must be able to start or terminate simulation in each sub-network at any
time. For example, the entire large road network is split into multiple sub-networks
and each sub-network is assigned to a subordinate nodal machine. The road boundary
region is the connecting points between two adjacent or multiple sub-networks. The
vehicle generating point (entering a sub-network) in one sub-network may
correspond to the vehicle vanishing point (leaving a sub-network) in the other
sub-network. Therefore, it is necessary to store all the boundary region information
in the main control machine to determine which boundary region belongs to which
sub-network.
PARALLEL SIMULATION STRATEGY OF THE TRANSPORTATION
NETWORK
Depends on the operation mode of the main control processor, parallel traffic
simulation strategy can be divided into independent sub-network or collaborative
sub-network.
In the independent sub-network simulation strategy, every sub-network nodal
machine can only receive the local traffic information on the sub-network rather than
the global information of the entire road network. Therefore, the simulated vehicle
driving route may heavily deviate from the actual situation, especially when traffic is
under congested condition.
In the collaborative sub-network simulation strategy, the main control processor
not only is responsible for the synchronization of the simulation clock of all
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sub-networks, bus also stores the abstract global network, the global vehicle traveling
OD matrix and the global driving route table which is collected from the connecting
information based on the simulation road network/segment. During the simulation,
the main control processor is responsible for controlling vehicle generation and
vehicle driving route in each sub-network, while the sub-network nodal machine
continuously sends simulation feedback of the local traffic conditions (route traveling
time, etc.) to the main control processor for updating of the global vehicle driving
route. When the vehicle in a sub-network reaches its boundary, the main control
processor will inform the next sub-network to generate the same vehicle status and
driving route until the vehicle reaches its destination.
In the latter strategy, the traffic between each sub-network nodal machine is
heaver comparing to the former strategy, but the advantages of the collaborative
sub-network simulation strategy are: the terminals of all vehicles and the driving
routes in the road network are obtained from the global traffic information on the
entire road network, therefore it carries the same settings of the vehicle driving route
in a serial simulations that reproduces more realistic traffic operational mode. Since
simulation correctness and accuracy is more important than efficiency, this study
adopts the collaborative sub-network simulation strategy to achieve the
parallelization of traffic network simulation. Figure 4 is a flow chart of the parallel
microscopic simulation process.

input module Master process

network data initialization

control scheme
network partition

process assign statistical results output

assign task to slave process receive results from slave process

network

pass message clock synchronization

Slave process 1 Slave Slave process 1

network control module process i network control module

……

vehicle generation vehicle generation

……
vehicle state update vehicle state update

information exchange
……
vehicle position update vehicle position update

Figure 4. Parallel microscopic traffic simulation processes.

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PERFORMANCE TESTS AND ANALYSIS

Test Environment
Testing was carried on using 11 PCs each with a 2.6 GHz CPU and 256M RAM
connected by 100Mbps Ethernet.. One PC with Microsoft Windows XP Professional
operation system is used to display the moving vehicles in graphic output and to
store the simulation network information with a Microsoft SQL-2000 database server.
Operate system of the rest of the ten PCs is Fedora Core2, one serves as controller
and the remaining 9 as subnet simulators. With pvm3.4.4 and CPPVM installed, they
can perform simulation task on a large scale road network smoothly.
Testing Results and Analysis
Seven example networks were built to test the performance of the collaborative
sub-network simulation strategy. Example network 1 is a real road network which
includes four signalized intersections. This network is part of the Main Street of
Changchun city. To understand the effect of the size of network,, the remaining six
example networks were artificial designed as grid network. The numbers of
intersections, links, and number of vehicles generated through the simulation period
are listed in Table 1. In all cases, total traffic simulation time is 1,000 seconds with
1/10 second step interval. To better balance computational load, the number of
processors (not including the graphical displayer and controller) used to simulate
traffic equals to the divisor of the number of intersections in the network. For
example, a network with 12 intersections was tested using 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 processors
(subnet simulators). Time consumption to complete each simulation runs in all cases
are shown at Figure 5. Figure 6 shows the result of the speedup benefits achieved in
all cases.

Table 1. Sizes For Different Testing Networks.

Testing Network Number of Intersections Number of Links Number of Vehicles
1 4 42 4613
2 12 60 4423
3 24 124 9254
4 40 204 5517
5 54 258 8300
6 60 304 3044
7 108 480 3195
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2000
1800
Network 1
1600

Consumed Time(s)
Network 2
1400
Network 3
1200
Network 4
1000
800 Network 5
600 Network 6
400 Network 7
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Processes

Figure 5. Time Consumption on Testing Networks.

4 Network 1
Network 2
SpeedUp

Network 3
3 Network 4
Network 5
Network 6
2 Network 7

1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of processors

Figure 6. Speedup Results for Different Number of Processes.

From the testing results it is found that in all cases, simulation time reduced as
number of processor increased. As number of processor increase, speed-up increase
in all the testing networks. The highest speedup of 4.02 was reached when using 6
processors on network 6. However, due to the condition that communication load
increases as the number of processors increases, there is an optimum number of
processors exist when the best speedup is reached for a given case. For example, the
optimum number for example network 2, 3, 5, 6, and 7 is six processors, and for
example network 4 is eight processors. Since higher speedup value was achieved on
larger scale network, it can be concluded that coarse-grained parallelism is more
appropriate for the distributed message passing architectures than fine-grained
parallelism.
SUMMARY
The parallel microscopic traffic simulation module is based on the serial traffic
simulation module. This paper studied the feasibility of the parallelization for large
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1610
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network microscopic traffic simulation, and compared two existing parallel traffic
simulation systems, namely, AIMSUN and TRANSIMS. Based on the test results, it
is concluded that space domain decomposition works best on the parallel
microscopic simulation module.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The research is funded by the Chinese National High-tech R&D Program (863
Program: 2007AA11Z203).
REFERENCE
Chen, G.L. (1999). Parallel Computing—structure, algorithm, programming, Beijing:
China higher education press.
Qiu, G., Li. Z.H., and Zhang, Y. (2004). “The application of Distributed
Parallelization in traffic simulation system.” Zhongnan highway engineering,
29 (1), 1-4.
Wei, L.Y., Juan, Z.C., and Tian, C.L. (2001). “Synchronizing algorithm study of
traffic flow distributed parallel simulation.” System engineering theory and
practice, 21(9), 135-139.
Barceló, F.M., and Saux, E.L. (1996). “The distributization of AIMSUN2
microscopic simulator for ITS applications.” Proceeding 3rd World
Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems, Orlando Florida: ITS America,
85-97.
Rickert, M., and Nagel, K. (2001). “Dynamic traffic assignment on parallel
computers in TRANSIMS.” Future Generation Computer Systems, 17(5),
637-648.
Nagel, K. (1994). “A Schleicher. Microscopic traffic modeling on parallel high
performance computers.” Parallel Computing, 20(1), 125-146.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1611
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Comparison of Current Practical Adaptive Traffic Control Systems

Hongyun CHEN 1, and Jian John LU2

1
(Corresponding author) Ph.D. Candidate, Center for Urban Transportation Research
(CUTR), University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave. CUT 100, Tampa, FL,
33620; PH (813) 9747882; FAX (813)974-5168; Email: helenviki-
sky@hotmail.com
2
Professor, P.E., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave. ENB118, Tampa, FL, 33620; PH (813)
9745817; FAX: (813) 974-2957; Email: lu@eng.usf.edu

ABSTRACT
Adaptive traffic control systems continuously monitor traffic conditions on an
arterial and adjust traffic signal timings to accommodate variation in traffic volume
and minimize stops and delays. This paper describes currently practical adaptive
control systems which have been used in the United States and worldwide, which
include Adaptive Control System-Lite (ACS-Lite), Optimization Policies for
Adaptive Control (OPAC), Real-Time Hierarchical Optimized Distributed and
Effective System (RHODES), Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System
(SCATS) and Split Cycle Offset Optimization (SCOOT). The comparisons of the
benefits from past experiences, cost and hardware requirements will help the traffic
engineers and decision makers a guideline to select the optimized adaptive control
system based on research objectives.
INTRODUCTION
Adaptive traffic control systems continuously monitor traffic conditions on an
arterial and adjust traffic signal timings to accommodate variation in traffic volume
and minimize stops and delays. Typically, within an adaptive traffic control system,
traffic detectors continuously collect traffic demand information, which is then used
by the central computer and/or local controllers to optimize signal timing by
incrementally adjusting one or all of the three parameters, split, cycle length, and
offset. These systems can adjust to the daily and seasonal variation in demand and
also improve the system performance when handling variation in demand due to
special events. Different adaptive systems were reviewed by the research team to
provide information for making an informed decision on implementing these systems.
The following systems were summarized:
• Adaptive Control System-Lite (ACS-Lite);
• Optimization Policies for Adaptive Control (OPAC);
• Real-Time Hierarchical Optimized Distributed and Effective System
(RHODES);
• Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS);
• Split Cycle Offset Optimization Technique (SCOOT);
ADAPTIVE CONTROL SOFTWARE-LITE (ACS-LITE)
ACS Lite is a scaled-down version of the FHWA’s Adaptive Control
Software (ACS) developed by FHWA in partnership with Siemens, the University of
Arizona, and Purdue University. ACS-Lite utilizes the existing controllers, detector,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1612
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and communication system to provide improvement over the time-of-day operation.

It intends to provide improvement with lower capital cost and requires less effort
from the maintaining agency to monitor and maintain it.
ACS-Lite uses stop-bar detectors to determine the phase demand and
optimize the splits and upstream detectors on a coordinated arterial to optimize offset
for progression. The current version of the software does not provide cycle length
optimization but is expected to add this capability by 2009.
ACS Lite was tested on SR 6 (State Route 6) in western Houston. SR 6
connects to I-10 on the south end and extends to US 290 to the north (Ghaman,
2006). The test section with eight intersections deployed the adaptive control system
in the fall of 2004. The results showed a reduction in delay of over 23 seconds per
vehicle, which is about a 35 percent reduction when compared to before, and a 29.4
percent reduction in the number of stops. An annual savings of $578,000 was
estimated from reduction in delay, stops, and fuel consumption.
FHWA conducted another study on SR 70 (State Route 70) (Jain et al., 2006)
to evaluate the benefits of ACS-Lite. The total length of this corridor was 2.9 miles
with eight signals. The study found that there was a 12 percent reduction in travel
time, a 28 percent reduction in number of stops, a 28 percent reduction in delay, and
an annual savings of $757,000 from these improvements.
OPTIMIZATION POLICIES FOR ADAPTIVE CONTROL (OPAC)
OPAC has multi-layered network control architecture for performing
adjustments to the signal timings. The network synchronization layer performs the
network-wide calculation of the cycle length. The next layer is the coordination
layer, which optimizes the real-time offsets and timing parameters for each
intersection. The third layer, local intersection control layer, performs the optimal
switching of sequences for projection period based on traffic data collected through
local detectors and platoon prediction. OPAC adjusts signal timings to minimize the
total delay and stops at an intersection at a pre-assigned period. Figure 1 shows the
architecture layer diagram of the adaptive traffic control system.
OPAC uses upstream detection and the ideal detector location is about 10
seconds upstream of stop line (at free flow speed), or upstream of the worst queue on
each lane of all through phases. After obtaining data such as speed and volume in the
approach, OPAC optimizes a weighted performance function of total intersection
stopped delay and stops subject to minimum and maximum green times. The special
function of OPAC is the cycle length constraint, which can continue or terminate
signal timings only within a prescribed range. The cycle length is calculated using
the critical volume to capacity ratios of the critical intersection in the region. Offsets
are optimized at the end of the current cycle with its neighboring intersections for the
entire regions. The decision of terminating the current phase or extending it by one
interval is based on delay and stops calculation. OPAC is suitable for controlling up
to 250 intersections (Pooran, 2001) and can operate as an independent smart
controller or as part of a coordinated system. It can board on normal CPUs and needs
about two or three computers to do the job of operating, serving, and designing.
In 1996, with the installation of OPAC at Route 18 in New Jersey (Gartner,
2001) in a 15-intersection region, several comparisons under various demand
conditions were simulated and the analysis indicated a highly significant
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1613
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improvement with OPAC control during oversaturated conditions. An average of 26

percent and 55 percent reductions of travel time and stop time, respectively, were
observed (Andrews et al., 1997). Later, a field test of OPAC was conducted at 16
intersections in Reston, Virginia (U.S. DOT, 2005) during peak traffic hours. The
study found that installing the OPAC would have improved travel times by about 5
percent when compared to optimized signal timing plans.

Layer 3
Network Synchronization
(Virtual Cycle/Cycle Constrains)

Network
Offset Downstream
Intersection
Layer 2 Simulation
Coordinated Layer
( Intersection Optimization )
Principal
Intersection
Network Initial Simulation
Parameters
Layer 1
Local Intersection Layer
Detectors
(Platoon Prediction/Phase Flow
Characterization/Field Signal)
Figure 1. OPAC Architecture Layer Diagram.

REAL-TIME HIERARCHICAL OPTIMIZED DISTRIBUTED AND

EFFECTIVE SYSTEM (RHODES)
The architecture in RHODES is categorized into three levels as dynamic
network loading model, network flow control, and intersection control. Dynamic
network loading model is the highest level and it uses data from detectors to
determine the average network traffic demand. The network flow layer then
determines the green time for different flow patterns and phases. The intersection
control level selects the appropriate phase based on observed and predicted arrivals
of individual vehicles at each intersection. The RHODES system proactively
determines the phase durations for predicted traffic conditions. The upstream
detectors and stop-bar detectors are used to predict the traffic demand on a link.
A simulation study of a 10-intersection arterial segment in Tucson, AZ
(Mirchandani, 2001), funded by the City of Tucson and FHWA, was conducted to
provide signal priority to approaching buses using RHODES. It was found that the
average travel time and person-delay was reduced by 8% and 18%, while having
little effect on other traffic conditions. RHODES was also tested in the field in
Seattle, Washington (U.S. DOT, 2005) during high directional flows. A 5%
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1614
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reduction in travel time was found when it was compared to optimized signal timing
plans.
SYDNEY COORDINATED ADAPTIVE TRAFFIC SYSTEM (SCATS)
SCAT originated in Sydney, Australia, and is currently operating on more
than 20,000 intersections worldwide (Fehon, 2004). The architecture of this system
consists of three levels: tactical traffic controller, regional computer controller, and
central computer controller, as shown in
Figure 2.

Central Management System

Regional Computer Regional Computer Regional Computer Regional Computer Regional Computer

Traffic Controllers Traffic Controllers Traffic Controllers Traffic Controllers Traffic Controllers

Figure 2. SCATS Architecture Hierarchy.

The tactical traffic control is provided by local controllers to incorporate

flexibility for meeting the demand at each intersection. The regional computers make
the strategic determinations of optimal cycle lengths, phase splits, and offsets based
on the average traffic conditions. The central computer controller provides access to
all the regional controllers within the system. The central controller is used to input
data, monitor traffic data collection, analyze data, and correct fault occurring on
regional or local controllers. One central management system can manage up to 32
regional computers, while one regional computer could control up to 250 local
controllers.
SCATS can operate in four modes and allows flexibility of operation in
different traffic conditions. It can operate in adaptive mode (Masterlink mode) and
allows time-based coordination (Flexilink mode), isolated operation, and Flash mode
operation. Time-based coordination and Isolated mode are usually the fallback
modes of operation, which may be activated due to communication failure. In the
adaptive mode, the strategic and tactical control allows for cycle length, split, and
offset optimization to provide efficient and safe traffic flow.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1615
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SCATS is operated by dividing the network into subsystems. Each subsystem

can have one or more intersections but only one critical intersection. These
intersections have a common cycle length which is determined by the traffic flow
conditions at the critical intersection. The splits for the minor intersections are
selected by a matching process that selects the splits that are compatible with the
split in operation at the critical intersection (White, 20071). Also, one or more
subsystems can be linked together to provide coordination on longer sections and
efficient flow from one subsystem to another. However, this link can be removed if
they can perform more efficiently at different cycle lengths.
SCATS gathers data on traffic flows in real-time at each intersection from
local controllers to provide strategic and tactical control. Stop-bar detectors are used
to measure the traffic conditions. After collecting the real data by the local computer,
the regional computer processes the data received from each intersection and
provides strategic control. SCATS uses the degree of saturation (DS) on each
approach to determine the traffic flow status. DS is the ratio of the effective green
time that provides just the sufficient time to pass the same platoon of vehicle at
optimum headways as in saturation flow conditions to the total green time on that
approach. The cycle length, split, and offset adjustment are performed in small
increments to reduce impact on traffic progression. The local controllers make
tactical decisions such as safe termination of a phase on minor approach due to lack
of demand. The central management system monitors the operation of each regional
computer and manages the information such as specified traffic data, control
parameters, or time-space diagram.
SCATS performs well with changing traffic conditions, since this system can
automatically adapt itself to the demands of the ever changing traffic flows. SCATS
can be installed on typical office computers. SCATS’s architecture (White 20072) is
suitable for systems ranging from 10 intersections to over 2,000 intersections for
conventional networks.
SCATS’s ability to improve traffic signal operations and provide benefits to
the traveling public has been proven across the United States. Oakland County in
Michigan (Abdel-Rahim et al, 1998) installed SCATS early in the 1990s on a 3.1-
mile arterial corridor with 64 intersections. The total cost was $650,000, with a
$15,000 maintenance fee per year. Travel time decreased by 8.6 percent in the
morning peak direction of travel and 7 percent in the evening peak direction of
travel. Delaware DOT (White, 20073) deployed SCATS on seventy intersections.
The performance feedback showed up to 25 percent reduction in travel time. In 2002,
Chula Vista, California (Chau et al, 2003) elected to install SCATS to coordinate
eleven signals. The improvement in average travel time and delay reduction was 14.5
percent and 40 percent, respectively. Also in California, the City of Menlo Park
(CCS Planning and Engineering, 2003) applied SCATS on 13 intersections to
alleviate congestion in their downtown area. The system provided more efficient
performances during peak hour with an 18 percent reduction in average travel time
and a10.4 percent reduction in average number of stops.
SPLIT CYCLE OFFSET OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUE, SCOOT
SCOOT is another widely used adaptive traffic control system. The
architecture of SCOOT is similar to SCATS but the difference lies in the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1616
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optimization process and the data requirement. The central computer receives and
stores the data from all the detectors and determines the optimal signal timing for the
region. Local controllers at intersections deal with the minimum greens, clearance
intervals, and local actuations within a region. SCOOT can work on networks with
less than 10 intersections as well as on networks with more than 1,000 intersections.
The network is divided into regions, and independent optimization is
performed for each region. All intersections within a region operate on a common
cycle length. This cycle length is determined by the demand on the most critical
intersection within the region.
Unlike SCATS, the detectors are located at the upstream end of the approach
link. The data from the detector is used to create a profile of vehicle flow rates within
a signal cycle at the detection location (Figure 3). These data are used to optimize the
cycle length, split, and offset to minimize stops and delays. The algorithm makes
small and regular changes to timings to achieve the reduction targets as stops, delay,
and congestion.

Figure 3. Cyclic Vehicle Profile Created in SCOOT Algorithm.

(source: www.scoot-utc.com)
SCOOT has been implemented on more than 100 systems worldwide
including cities like Toronto, London, San Diego, Anaheim (California), Arlington
(Virginia), Bangkok, Singapore, and a few other cities. It has been implemented on
arterial streets as well as grid networks (Day, 1998).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1617
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In Anaheim (Hounsell, 1999), an urban area with a population of 300,000 and

with four major event centers, SCOOT was implemented on a traffic signal network
around these centers. The change in travel times for the routes in the area ranged
from a decrease of 10 percent to an increase of 15 percent. The relative influence of
the system was better when there were no events like shows or concerts at the centers
being performed. Dey’s study (Dey et al, 2002) suggests that typical savings from
SCOOT implementation are an 8 percent reduction in travel time, a 22 percent
reduction in delay, and a 17 percent reduction in stops.
COMPARISON OF ADAPTIVE TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
Benefit and cost information for different adaptive systems was collected by
conducting a literature review. The benefit and cost data were either obtained from
past installations studies or estimated from simulation results. The comparisons of
the benefits from past experiences, cost and hardware requirements will help the
traffic engineers and decision makers a guideline to select the optimized adaptive
control system based on research objectives. Table 1 lists the comparison among the
control systems. All adaptive traffic control systems resulted in improved traffic
conditions. Some of the systems may be more suitable for implementation on a
particular location compared to others based on existing infrastructure, available
resources, and funding.
Table 1. Comparison of Adaptive Control Systems by Benefits and Costs.
SYSTEM BENEFITS (Percent change) INITIAL
CAPITAL COST
Travel Time Delays Stops (per intersection)*
ACS-Lite -12 to +7 -38 to +2 -35 to -28 $6,000 to $10,000 a
OPAC -26 to +10 - -55 to 0 $20,000 to $50,000 b
RHODES -7 to +4 -19 to -2 - $30,000 to $50,000 c

SCATS -20 to 0 -19 to +3 -24 to +5 $25,000 to $30,000 d

SCOOT -29 to -5 -28 to -2 -32 to -17 $30,000 to $60,000 e

*The initial capital cost is based on the installation or cost estimate of each adaptive control system
and has not been adjusted for inflation. Also costs will vary depending on the type of technology
being used for detection and communication.
a: The maximum and minimum cost is based on the estimate provided by FHWA;
b: The maximum and minimum cost is based on the estimation (Pooran,2001);
c: The maximum and minimum cost is based on the estimation (Head et al., 2001);
d: The maximum and maximum cost is based on the estimation (White 20074) and installations
(White, 20075);
e: The maximum and minimum cost is based on the estimation (El-Assar, 2006);

All adaptive systems will require typical communication infrastructure to

operate. Currently the intersections on the US 301 corridor in Starke operate on a
time-based coordination. Table 2 compares the equipment requirements of each
traffic adaptive control system including detectors, controllers, and central computer
requirement.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1618
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ACS-Lite has the lowest cost among all systems but the current version of the
software does not provide cycle optimization (the new version expected in 2009 will
be able to optimize cycle length as well). It requires upstream detectors on
coordinated approach for offset optimization.
OPAC, RHODES, and SCOOT rely heavily on the presence of upstream
detectors for making adjustments to the cycle length, splits, and offsets. Therefore,
their implementation in Starke will require installation of upstream detectors. SCATS
can utilize the existing detectors on the major street but will require new controllers
and an installation smaller stop bar loop detector on the minor street of the critical
intersection to operate effectively. The initial installation cost of OPAC, RHODES,
SCATS, and SCOOT is much higher than ACS-Lite.
Table 2. Equipment Requirements for Adaptive Control Systems.
SYSTEM ADVANCE STOP-BAR CONTROLER
DETECTOR DETECTOR
ACS-Lite Yes Yes 170/2070/TS2
OPAC Yes No 170/2070/TS2
RHODES Yes Yes 2070/TS2
SCATS No Yes 170E/2070
SCOOT Yes No 170/2070/TS1/TS2

REFERENCES
Abdel-Rahim, A. et al. (1998) “The Impact of SCATS on Travel Time and Delay”,
presented at the 8th Annual ITS America Meeting. Detroit, Michigan.
Andrews, C. M., Elahi, S. M., and Clark, J.E. (1997) “Evaluation of New Jersey
Route 18 OPAC/MIST Traffic-Control System”, Transportation Research
Board, Washington D.C.
Chau, C., and Al-Agha, S. (2003) “Evaluation Report: Adaptive Traffic Control
System Using SCATS”, project draft report provided by Land Development
and Transportation Division Engineering Department in California.
Day, I. (1998) “Traffic Control Systems- SCOOT/UTC”, presented at TRB Traffic
Signal Systems Committee, Adaptive Traffic Signal Control Workshop.
Dey, D. W., Fitzsimons S., Morris, A., and Ng, D. (2002) “Adaptive Traffic Signal
Interconnect in Menlo Park and Sunnyvale, CA”.
El-Assar, H. (2006) “Adaptive Signal Control II: Orange County SCOOT System”,
Presented at Transpo 2006 Conference, Clearwater, Florida
“El Camino Rd. (Route 82) Adaptive Traffic Signal Coordination Project Draft Final
Report” (2003), project draft report provided by CCS Planning and
Engineering, Inc. in California.
Fehon, K. (2004) “Adaptive Traffic Signals – Are we missing the boat?”, ITE District
6 2004 Annual Meeting, Sacramento, California.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1619
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Ghaman, R. (2006) “Adaptive Control Software- Lite: Some Early Results”,

presented at TRB Signal Committee Meeting, Woods Hole, Massachusetts.
Gartner, N. H. (2001) “Optimized Policies for Adaptive Control (OPAC) – Session I:
Principles of Operatin”, presented at TRB Signal Systems Committee
Workshop, Washington D.C.
Head, L., and Mirchandani, P. (2001) “RHODES: Equipment Requirements,”
presented at the Workshop on Adaptive Signal Control Systems,
Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C.
Hounsell, N. (1999) “Intelligent Bus Priority in London: Evaluation and Exploitation
in Income”, presented at the 6th World Congress Conference on ITS. Toronto,
Canada “White, T. (2007) “Scope of Work for Installing SCATS Adaptive
Traffic Control System”, provided by TransCore.
Jain, K., Silberman, P., and Sabra, Z. A. (2006) “Adaptive Control Software-Lite
Before and After Traffic Analysis Report: State Highway 70-City of
Bradenton, Florida”, prepared for U.S. Department of Transportation,
Federal Highway Administration.
Mirchandani, P. (2001) “An Approach towards the Integration of Bus Priority and
Traffic Adaptive Signal Control”, presented at the Transportation Research
Board Meeting. Washington D.C.
Pooran, F. (2001) “Optimized Policies for Adaptive Control (OPAC) – Session II:
Equipment Requirement”, presented at TRB Signal Systems Committee
Workshop, Washington D.C.
U.S. DOT Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center (2005) “Adaptive Control
Software”, Office of Operations R&D, Report No. HRTS-04-037, HRDO-
03/12-03(500).
White, T. (2007) “Introduction to the SCATS Adaptive Traffic Control System”,
provided by TransCore.
White, T. (2007) “Adaptive Traffic Control System – SCATS Presentation”, provided
by TransCore.
White, T. (2007) “SCATS Adaptive Traffic Control System,” provided by TransCore.
White, T. (2007) “SCATS Project References,” provided by TransCore.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1620
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A Pitfall to Avoid When Issuing Transit Signal Priority Treatments under

Coordinated Control Strategies

Xiaolei MA1, Guohui ZHANG2, Jonathan COREY3 and Yinhai WANG4

1
Research Assistant, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Washington, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195-2700, Tel: (518)
618-6775, Email: xiaolm@u.washington.edu.
2
Ph.D., Center for Transportation Research, Department of Civil, Architectural and
Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 3208 Red River,
Austin, Texas 78705, Tel: (512)-785-2296, Email: guohui@mail.utexas.edu.
3
Research Assistant, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Washington, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195-2700, Tel:
(425)299-9218, Email: falker@u.washington.edu.
4
Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Washington, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195-2700, Tel: (206)
616-2696, Fax: (206) 543-1543, Email: yinhai@u.washington.edu.

ABSTRACT
Transit Signal Priority (TSP) is an advanced control mechanism to facilitate
transit vehicle operations along signalized arterials. In practical application, TSP
systems are integrated with coordinated signal control strategies. People take for
granted the reduced transit delays through TSP treatments. However, due to
conflicts between TSP control schemes and coordinated signal control strategies
along signalized arterials, the benefits achieved by transit vehicles may be washed
out to some extent. Our recent study for optimizing the South Snohomish Regional
Transit Signal Priority (SS-RTSP) system operations found that transit vehicle
delays over a signal-coordinated corridor can be lengthened by TSP treatments in
some scenarios. A VISSIM-based simulation model is developed to emulate TSP
system operations along the SR-99 arterial covering 13 intersections, in the City of
Lynnwood, Washington. Various transit operation scenarios under diverse
coordinated signal control plans are designed. Theoretical analysis is also provided
to formulate the transit travel process. The research findings indicated that to
achieve the best operational efficiency, the compatibility between TSP control
schemes and signal control coordination should be strengthened to minimize transit
disruption to signal coordination.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1621
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INTRODUCTION
Highly reliable transit services are essential for encouraging travelers to
use public transit systems. Transit Signal Priority (TSP) has been introduced as an
operational strategy to facilitate the movement of in-service transit vehicles through
signalized intersections (Baker,et al., 2002). Considering that delays at signalized
intersections typically account for 10 to 20 percent of a transit vehicle’s running
time, TSP treatments can provide significant improvements in a vehicle’s on-time
rate.
In the past two decades, TSP systems have been deployed in many cities
worldwide. The South Snohomish Regional Transit System Priority (SS-RTSP)
system was fully implemented in 2007 to improve the level of services for
Community Transit (CT) buses. Zheng et al. (Zheng et al,. 2008) evaluated the
performance of the SS-RTSP system and concluded that the SS-RTSP system
introduced remarkable benefits to transit vehicles, with insignificant negative
impacts to local traffic on cross streets. The overall impact of the SS-RTSP system
on local traffic of each entire intersection was not statistically significant at the
p=0.05 level.
However, during our research for optimizing the SS-RTSP system
operations, we found that transit vehicle delays over the signal-coordinated SR-99
corridor can be increased with TSP treatments in some scenarios. This finding was
surprising because it conflicts with our general impression of TSP systems. In
practice, we must avoid operating the TSP system in such scenarios to prevent
significant and deleterious conflicts between the coordination and TSP control
schemas. To identify the reasons for such abnormal impacts of the TSP systems,
further research efforts are needed.
This paper describes such an investigation effort on the TSP system
operation on a corridor under coordinated signal control. It is organized as follows.
Previous studies are summarized in Section 2, followed by a detailed description of
problems in Section 3. Then, in Section 4, scenarios with unexpectedly high transit
vehicle delay when TSP is enabled are analyzed and discussed. At the end of this
paper, this research effort is summarized and future studies are recommended in
Section 5.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Many studies have been conducted on TSP systems, with the majority of
them (see for example (Zheng et al. 2008 and Dion et al. 2002)) concentrated on
system performance evaluations. Almost all these studies have agreed on the
benefits for transit operations. Chang et al. (Chang et al., 1995) and Collura et al.
(Collura et al. 2006) found that reductions in average intersection delays ranged
from 6 to 42 percent, and reductions in average bus travel times varied from 0 to 38
percent. Yand (Yand, 2004) identified that vehicles sharing the same signal phase
with transit vehicles also occasionally benefited from TSP treatments.
Researchers have also reported negative impacts of TSP on general traffic. For
example, the field tests conducted by Chang et al. and Collura et al. showed that
TSP strategies could yield stop and delay increases as high as 23 percent to the
general traffic. Another important understanding is that benefits will often be
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1622
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intimately linked with the characteristics of each deployment site (Garrow and
Machemehl, 1997).
Although questions have been raised on the interaction between the coordinated
signal control system and the TSP system, few studies have focused on this issue.
Al-Sahili et al. (Al-Sahili et al.,1995) found that increased stops and delays to the
general traffic may also result from the disruption of traffic progression patterns
along coordinated arterials. Dion and Rakha (Dion and Rakha, 2005) stated that
TSP operations may disrupt traffic progression patterns by adjusting to the slower
traveling transit vehicles, thus causing increased congestion and safety risks.
Furthermore, potential conflicts between coordinated signal control strategies and
TSP control schemes may not only introduce unexpected interruptions to regular
traffic progression but also compromise prospective benefits to transit services
under prioritized treatments. However, few research efforts have concentrated on
the formulation and analysis of the disruption introduced by a TSP treatment to
coordinated signal operations. Therefore, more research is needed to address this
issue and further optimize overall TSP system operations.
SIMULATION-BASED TSP SYSTEM INVESTIGATIONS
Simulation Model Development and Test Scenarios
To fully investigate the TSP system performance under various traffic
conditions, a simulation model was established to emulate a practical TSP system
operated along the section of SR 99 between 238th Street SW and 164th Street SW
in the City of Lynnwood, WA. There are thirteen signalized intersections along this
corridor. The control strategies of all the thirteen intersections are coordinated for
traffic movements along the SR-99 corridor. A microscopic simulation model was
developed to simulate the study corridor using the traffic simulation tool, VISSIM
5.10 (PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG, 2004). Depending on the traffic volume
levels, this corridor may execute one of the three Semi-actuated timing plan groups.
Each signal plan group consists of thirteen individual timing plans, one for each
intersection. All the three signal plan groups were included in this study for the
simulation-based investigation to the TSP system operations. Corresponding to the
three signal control plan groups, three signal timing plans were developed in the
simulation model. Field observed traffic data were used to configure and calibrate
each model. Due to consistent cycle lengths for all the intersections under the
coordinated control mode, we can distinguish these signal groups by using their
unique cycle lengths, i.e. 120 seconds, 130 seconds, and 150 seconds.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1623
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Figure 1. SS-RTSP Project Test Corridor.

Simulation Model Calibration

Simulation model calibration is crucial to ensure realistic representation of
simulated scenarios and to achieve reliable simulation results. In this study traffic
volumes for each approach were collected from mid-block traffic counters. This
data was used to calibrate intersection traffic demands. Other important parameters
such as bus headways and bus stop locations were also collected from
corresponding sources and applied to configuring the simulation model. Travel time
may vary significantly for each individual vehicle crossing an intersection due to
signal control impacts. Therefore, vehicle queue length was utilized as the major
calibration measure to calibrate driver behavior parameters in this paper. Maximum
queue lengths (i.e. number of vehicles in queue at the beginning of green) were
manually extracted from recorded video tapes and used to calibrate and validate the
simulation model. The procedure of calibration basically followed the methodology
developed by Richard Dowling et al. (Richard Dowling et al., 2004). The maximum
queue lengths averaged from five simulation runs were compared with the
ground-truth maximum queue lengths to examine the quality of calibration. For
example, the calibration results for the intersection of SR 99 & 196th St. SW are
shown in Table 1.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1624
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Table 1. Queue Length Calibration Descriptive Statistics for the Intersection of

SR 99 & 196th St SW.
Simulation Field Traffic Relative
Outputs Data Difference %
Intersection 196th Maximum Maximum Maximum Queue
Directions Queue Length Queue Length Length By Cycle
By Cycle By Cycle
a
Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std
South Bound Left(SBL) 6.07 0.65 5.94 0.95 2.19% -31.58%
South Bound Through(SBT) 16.87 1.32 15.79 1.78 6.84% -25.84%
North Bound Left(NBL) 5.33 0.41 5.79 0.67 -7.94% -38.81%
North Bound Through(NBT) 14.53 0.98 15.9 1.13 -8.62% -13.27%
West Bound Left(WBL) 7.8 0.46 9.15 0.88 -14.75% -47.73%
West Bound Through(WBT) 20.87 1.65 20.47 2.04 1.95% -19.12%
East Bound Left(EBL) 8.47 0.23 8.05 0.45 5.22% -48.89%
East Bound Through(EBT) 14.73 0.89 14.27 1.02 3.22% -12.75%
a
Standard Deviation

Although the maximum queue length per cycle outputted by the simulation
model fluctuates to some extent compared with the field traffic data, the relative
difference of the average maximum queue length ranges from 1.95% to 14.75%.
Considering the limited sample size and the randomness of simulation outputs, such
discrepancies are acceptable. Analogous calibration and comparison procedures are
applied to other major intersections along the corridor. After multiple calibration
iterations, we believe that the model is well calibrated.
Simulation Tests and Discussion
Various red truncation and green extension times were applied to indicate
the extent of priority treatment given to transit vehicles and to further investigate
their impacts on the entire system operation. Standard NEMA control logic consists
of two rings and a barrier. This paradigm was used for most signalized intersections
along the corridor, with each ring having four sequential phases. In this simulation
test, an increment of 3 seconds was specified for both red truncation and green
extension time changes, using the same NEMA paradigm. The red truncation and
green extension increment time of 3 seconds can be evenly distributed to or taken
from the other three phases. Consequently, a wide range of red truncation and green
extension times could be chosen, from 6 seconds to 30 seconds. By combining
these diverse times with the three typical signal plan groups studied in the previous
tests, new simulation tests were conducted.
Table 2 shows the delays for both transit and general traffic when the TSP
system operates with various red truncation and green extension times under
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1625
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different control plans. In Table 2, we can see that when more red truncation and
green extension times are allocated to transit vehicles under the 120-second-cycle
signal plan, the transit vehicles receive obvious benefits. The average transit delay
is reduced from 480.7 seconds to 448.2 seconds. Meanwhile, significantly longer
delays are not observed for minor street traffic. However, under the
130-second-cycle signal plan, the transit delays fluctuate when more red truncation
and green extension time is allocated to transit. Consistent patterns not observed.
Also, there are no considerable negative impacts on minor street traffic even though
more time is assigned to the major street. Similar results were recorded for the
150-second-cycle.

Table 2. Integrated Simulation Results of Transit and General Traffic Delays

for Various Red Truncation and Green Extension Times with Ten Simulation
Iterations.
Transit General Traffic (Average Intersection
Test Period
(Average Delay)
3 Hours
Corridor Delay) Minor Street Major Street
Cycle
Red
Length
Truncation
(Second) TSP- TSP- TSP- TSP- TSP- TSP-
and Green
on Off on off on off
Extension
(Seconds)
6 480.7 485.1 47.8 47.4 17.3 17.4
9 477.8 485.1 48.1 47.4 17.2 17.4
12 472.9 485.1 48.2 47.4 17.2 17.4
15 470.3 485.1 48.3 47.4 17.3 17.4
120 18 469.8 485.1 48.6 47.4 17.2 17.4
21 464.5 485.1 48.9 47.4 17.3 17.4
24 460.0 485.1 49.0 47.4 17.3 17.4
27 453.7 485.1 49.2 47.4 17.3 17.4
30 448.2 485.1 49.4 47.4 17.4 17.4
6 462.8 465.7 53.1 52.2 15.7 15.7
9 462.4 465.7 53.6 52.2 15.6 15.7
12 451.5 465.7 53.8 52.2 15.6 15.7
15 473.5 465.7 54.4 52.2 15.8 15.7
130 18 439.7 465.7 54.5 52.2 15.6 15.7
21 428.3 465.7 54.7 52.2 15.6 15.7
24 435.8 465.7 54.7 52.2 15.8 15.7
27 438.3 465.7 54.8 52.2 15.8 15.7
30 438.7 465.7 54.6 52.2 15.8 15.7
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1626
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6 443.3 452.5 59.6 59.4 14.5 14.6

9 440.8 452.5 59.7 59.4 14.5 14.6
12 436.9 452.5 59.8 59.4 14.5 14.6
15 434.1 452.5 59.9 59.4 14.7 14.6
150 18 421.8 452.5 60.0 59.4 14.6 14.6
21 428.3 452.5 60.1 59.4 14.7 14.6
24 417.5 452.5 60.3 59.4 14.8 14.6
27 420.1 452.5 60.3 59.4 14.9 14.6
30 438.7 465.7 54.6 52.2 15.8 15.7
TSP system operations were not beneficial for both transit and general
traffic under the 130-second-cycle signal plan with 15 seconds red truncation or
green extension time. Although more green time was allocated to transit, longer
delay was observed for transit traveling along the entire corridor because of severe
disruption of traffic progression. The negative impacts of TSP systems on local
traffic are observed, too; although, they are not statistically significant. Therefore,
we can conclude that the TSP system can shorten transit’s travel time at some
isolated intersections, but it may violate flow progression and cause longer travel
time for a corridor with coordinated signal control.
A further examination of transit operations looking at a subset of the
corridor’s intersections is presented in Table 4, below.
Table 3. Simulation Delay and Stop Results for Transit Vehicles for 130
Second Cycle Length; 15 Second Red Truncation and Green Extension Time
at Three Consecutive Intersections with Ten Simulation Iterations.
Test Period 3 Hours ATVD1 ANS2
Intersection TSP-on TSP-off TSP-on TSP-off
th
196 ST. 43.4 49.5 0.94 0.98
200th ST. 22.1 19.2 0.47 0.36
th
208 ST. 27.1 13.8 0.67 0.23
Average 30.9 27.5 0.7 0.5
1 2
denotes Average Transit Vehicle Delay; denotes Average Number of Stops;

Three consecutive intersections were selected to further clarify this issue;

simulation data including average travel delays and stops for transit were collected
from ten simulation runs, as shown in Table 3. Further observations of simulation
operations were included for verification. At the upstream intersection of SR 99 and
196th Street with a far-side bus stop, the red truncation strategy was executed, and
transit vehicles experienced less delay by starting earlier when the TSP system was
on, resulting in the average transit delay being 43.4 seconds, less than the 49.5
seconds of delay without the TSP system. Because of signal coordination, however,
transit arriving during a red signal would have to wait at the next intersection of SR
99 and 200th Street. Conversely, a transit vehicle operating without the TSP system
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1627
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could pass through this intersection smoothly by using the green band provided by
coordinated signal settings. Thus, longer delays were observed for transit vehicles
when TSP was enabled. Simulation data showed that the transit delay increased
from 19.2 seconds to 22.1 seconds. A similar analysis was conducted for the next
intersection at SR 99 and 208th Street. Severe delays were observed for transit
vehicles when the TSP system was on. Although the TSP system could allocate
more green time to transit at some intersections, such time savings might not be
sufficient to offset the delay introduced by disrupting signal coordination along the
entire corridor. The overall performance of transit operations would degrade
significantly under this coordinated signal plan.
FORMULATING UNCERTAIN FACTORS WITH TSP SYSTEM
OPERATIONS
Further theoretical analysis is conducted to model and investigate the transit
vehicle operation process under TSP control strategies with consideration of
potential impacts of uncertain factors. Based on the calibrated simulation model,
the transit vehicle operation is formulated. In our research, the TSP treatment is
available for TSP-eligible transit vehicles: green extension and red truncation of ge
seconds. Three intersections with coordinated signal control were more closely
studied to illustrate impacts of uncertain factors on entire TSP system operations.
Assume that the delay at the bus stop is d i ( i =1,2) (seconds), which includes dwelling
time, transit vehicle deceleration delay, and acceleration delay (i indicates the
intersection number). The first intersection’s signal is selected as the reference
signal, and the offset for intersection 2 and intersection 3 will be denoted
as Offset2 , Offset3 , respectively. The allocated green, red and yellow times for the
phase serving transit vehicles are gi (i =1,2,3) (second), ri ( i =1,2,3) (seconds), and
y (second), respectively. In our study, uniform four-second yellow timing is used
for all the intersections.
Figure 3 shows how TSP systems may increase transit delay under certain
conditions over three coordinated intersections. For comparison purposes, we draw
the trajectories for two buses: the first bus is not eligible for TSP treatment while
the second bus is eligible.
In the second intersection, the delay of the TSP-ineligible bus can be
calculated as:

−TSP , dwell = (Offset 2 + g 2 + y + r2 ) − (Offset 2 + d1 ) = g 2 + y + r2 − d1 (1)

INT 2
Delaynon

In the third intersection, due to the traffic progression and the dwell time in
the bus stop, the bus was able to pass through within the green window in the next
cycle. Therefore, the delay will be:

−TSP , dwell = 0
INT 3
Delaynon (2)

Then, the total delay for the first bus will be expressed as:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1628
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Delaynon −TSP ,dwell = g 2 + y + r2 − d1 (3)

y y
Offset3 g3 r3 Offset3 g3 g e r3

d2 d2

y y
Offset2 g2 r2 Offset2 g2 ge r2

d1 d1

y y
g1 r1 g1 r1

Figure 3. transit delay comparisons with TSP-enabled coordinated signalized

corridor.

For the second bus, since it was TSP-eligible, and its estimated arriving time
at the stop bar in the second intersection was inside the green extension window of
( g 2 , g 2 + g e ) , the green time was extended for ge . Then, the bus was able to pass

through this intersection. Therefore, the delay for INT2 will be:

, green extension , dwell = 0

INT 2
DelayTSP (4)

Comparing with the first bus, in the second intersection, the TSP operation
reduces the transit delay to:
ΔDelay INT 2 = g2 + y + r2 − d1 (5)

In the third intersection, the green extension strategy was activated by

estimating the arriving time at the stop bar, however, the extended green extension
time is not sufficient to get the bus through the third intersection. This green
extension will push its following phase to start ge seconds later. In this case, the

delay for this intersection is:

, green extension,dwell = (Offset3 + g3 + ge + y + r3 ) − (Offset3 + d1 + d2 )
INT 3
DelayTSP
= g3 + ge + y + r3 − d1 − d2 (6)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1629
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The increased delay with the first bus is:

ΔDelay INT 3 = g 3 + g e + y + r3 − d1 − d 2 (7)

Therefore, the total transit delay for the second bus is expressed as:
DelayTSP , green extension , dwell = g 3 + g e + y + r3 − d1 − d 2 (8)

The difference between these two delays, or the extra delay introduced by
interruption between TSP systems and coordinated signal control system is:
ΔD = DelayTSP,green extension,dwell − Delaynon−TSP,dwell
(9)
= (g3 + ge + y + r3 −d1 −d2 ) −(g2 + y + r2 −d1)
Since in the coordinated signal control system, signal cycle length
C (seconds) for all the intersections is identical, then we can conclude:
C = g3 + ge + y + r3 = g 2 + ge + y + r2 (10)

Equation (9) will be further simplified as:

ΔD = ge − d 2 (11)

If the dwell time at the bus stop is smaller than the green extension time in
the TSP system, then ΔD > 0 . For one corridor with multiple intersections, this
delay will be accumulated to exceed the benefits TSP introduced to other
intersections. Since it is difficult to predict the dwell time at the bus stop accurately,
setting the appropriated green extension time will be critical important. If ge is too

large, the extra delay will increase, if ge is too small, the chance that the bus failed

to receive the TSP treatment will increase. From this point, it is understandable that
the average corridor transit delay with TSP treatment is higher under 130 second
cycle length and medium green extension timing plan.
CONCLUSION
Although numerous studies were conducted for the cost-benefit analysis for
TSP system performance evaluations, few of them investigated the compatibility
between the TSP operation schemes with coordinated signal control strategy. To
address this problem, a simulation model was established for SR-99 corridor from
238th Street SW to 164th Street SW in the City of Lynnwood to examine the TSP
systems under three different timing plans. Optimizations of the various green
extension or red truncation parameters, distributed from 6 to 30 seconds, were
investigated. Results indicated although remarkable time savings were observed for
transit vehicles traveling along the corridor when the TSP control strategy was
implemented for most cases, TSP systems were not beneficial for both transit and
general traffic under some certain conditions due to severe disruption of traffic
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1630
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progression. In-depth research was conducted to clarify the conflicts between TSP
control strategies and coordinated signal plans. The research findings are useful for
traffic engineers to enhance the compatibility between TSP control schemes and
signal control coordination, and minimize the transit disruption to signal
coordination.
Although this study demonstrates interesting results for strengthening TSP
system operations over coordinated signalized corridor, further improvements are
desired through collecting more data for simulation intersection calibration.
Additionally, more simulation runs are helpful to enhance the creditability of test
results.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are grateful for the financial support to this project from
Transportation Northwest (TransNow), the USDOT University Transportation
Center for Federal Region 10, and the Washington State Department of
Transportation (WSDOT). The authors also appreciate help from Larry Senn from
WSDOT; Zohreh Zandi and Marjean Penny, Community Transit, Kevin Tucker,
Snohomish County DOT, and Paul Coffelt and Dick Adams, City of Lynnwood.

REFERENCE
Al-Sahili, K.A., and Taylor, W.C.. (1995). “Evaluation of Bus Priority Signal
Strategies in Ann Arbor, Michigan.” Transportation Research Record 1554,
Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 74-49.
Baker, R.J., Collura, J., Dale, J.J., Head, L., Hemily, B., Ivanovic, M., Jarzab, J.T.,
McCormick, D., Obenberger, J., Smith, L., and Stoppenhagen, G.R. (2002).
‘An overview of transit signal priority.’ Intelligent Transportation Society of
America, Washington, D.C..
Chang, G.-L., Vasudevan, M., and Su, C.C. (1995). Bus preemption under adaptive
control environments. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the
Transportation Research Board, No. 1494, TRB, National Research
Council, Washington, D.C., pp. 146-154.
Collura, J., Rakha, H., and Guifford, J. (2006). Guidelines for the Planning and
Deployment of Emergency Vehicle Preemption and Transit Priority
Strategies. Research Report, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute.
Dion, F., Rakha, H., and Zhang, Y. (2002). ‘Evaluation of potential transit signal
priority benefits along a fixed-time signalized arterial.’ Preprint CD-ROM
for the 81st Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, Washington,
D.C..
Francois Dion, Hesham Rakha.(2005). Integration of Transit Signal Priority Within
Adaptive Traffic Signal Control Systems. Preprint CD-ROM, 84th
Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C..
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1631
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Garrow, M., and Machemehl, R.. (1997). “Development and Evaluation of Transit
Signal Priority Strategies.” Research Report SWUTC/97/472840-00068-1,
Southwest Region University Transportation Center, Center for
Transportation Research, University of Texas, Austin, Texas.
PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG (2004). VISSIM User’s Manual. Version 4.00.
Karlsruhe, Germany.
Richard Dowling, Alexander Skabardonis, John Halkias, Gene McHale, and Grant
Zammit. (2004). Guidelines for calibration of Microsimulation Models,
Framework and Applications. In Transportation Research Record: Journal
of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1876, TRB, National Research
Council, Washington, D.C., pp. 1–9.
Yand, M.C (2004). Effective Transit Signal Priority. Proceedings of 2004 Annual
Meeting and Exhibit, Institute of Transportation Engineers.
Zheng, J. G. Zhang, Y. Wang, and P.M. Briglia (2008). Comprehensive Evaluation
of a Transit Signal Priority System Using Observed and Simulated Traffic
Data. Preprint CD-ROM for the 86th Annual Meeting of Transportation
Research Board, Washington, D.C..
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1632
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

How to Identify Hazardous Locations in roadway Network

Wen CHENG1, Xuesong WANG2 and Kekoa ANDERSON3

1
Ph.D., P.E., Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, California State
Polytechnic University, Pomona, 3801 W. Temple Ave., Pomona, CA 91768; PH (909)
869-2957; FAX (909) 869-4342; email: wcheng@csupomona.edu.
2
Ph.D., Associate Professor, School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University,
4800 Cao'an Road, 201804, Jiading District, Shanghai, China; PH (86) 21-65983946;
FAX (86) 21-65982897; email: wangxs@tongji.edu.cn.
3
P.E., Divisional Vice President, Tetra Tech Inc., 16241 Laguna Canyon Road, Suite
200, Irvine, CA 92618; PH (949) 727-7099; FAX (949) 727-7077; email:
kekoa.anderson@tetratech.com.

ABSTRACT
Among the multitude of hazardous location identification methods proposed in
the past, one of the disagreements remaining unresolved is regarding which kind of
criterion should be employed to identify the hot spots, the accident number, or the
accident reduction potential. Rather than favor either of the criteria, the authors proposed
a methodology combining the two criteria to conduct HSID. To improve the
identification accuracy, the well accepted empirical Bayesian technique is used to
compute the expected accident number and accident reduction potential. In addition, the
confidence levels are also adopted to guard against the uncertainties revolving around
the estimated values. The methodology was applied to four functional classifications of
road sections in Arizona. The results have illustrated the great advantages of this
methodology over alternative identification methods.
INTRODUCTION
The safety improvement of a road network generally requires four basic steps:
identifying the hazardous sites (also called “hot spots,” “sites with promises,” “accident-
prone locations,” etc.) requiring further engineering study, diagnosing the safety
problems of the hot spots, selecting feasible treatments for site candidates, and
prioritizing the treatments given budget limits. It is very important that the first step
identify truly hazardous sites to ensure that resources used in the subsequent steps are
directed appropriately. Due to its great significance, many methods have been proposed
to conduct hot spots identification (HSID). Some are roadway-oriented methods
(Laughland et al., 1975), such as skid testing, hazard indicator reporting, accident risk
factor, field observations, and so on. Some are driver-oriented methods, including
conflicts analysis, speed distribution skew, physiological response testing, etc. However,
the most popular practice for various traffic agencies is to rely principally on the traffic
accident data for identifying hazardous locations. The underlying assumption of the
accident-oriented methods is that, as one of three components causing traffic accidents
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1633
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(i.e., roadways, vehicles, and humans), the safety problems on the roadways can be
revealed through studying accident data.
General statistical theories regarding accident occurrence are stated as follows
(Morin, 1967; Norden et al., 1956; Hauer, 1997; Maher and Mountain, 1988; Wright,
1988):
 An accident is the result of a Bernoulli trial. Each time a vehicle enters an
intersection (highway segment, ramp, etc.), it will yield either an accident or not
accident.
 A series of Bernoulli trials result in a binomial distribution (n “successes” of N
trials). Thus, accident counts resulting from various vehicles on the road
segments or passing intersection can be fit by binomial distribution.
 When N is large (vehicle miles of travel) and p is small (accident on any given
trial), the Binomial distribution converges to the Poisson distribution, which
requires the mean and variance of accident counts be equal.
 The expected accident counts of the similar sites follow gamma distribution.
 A negative binomial distribution arises as a combination of gamma distributed
heterogeneity of Poisson means. This distribution is considered the current state
of the practice for modeling over-dispersed crash data.
On the basis of these recognitions, a multitude of HSID methods revolving
around accidents have been developed in the past. However, there are many
disagreements existing in the rather disparate and non-cohesive collection of papers.
One of the disputes remaining unresolved lies in which kind of sites should be identified
as the hot spots, the sites with high risk or the sites with high accident reduction
potential (ARP), also called “potential accident reduction” (McGuigan, 1981; McGuigan,
1982) or “potential for safety improvement” (Persaud, 1999). High risk sites generally
represent the sites which have large accident counts; whereas, the sites with high ARP
refer to locations experiencing large above-normal accident counts. As discussed by
Hauer et al. (2002), the selection of either criterion depends on the alternative
assumptions. The adoption of accident counts assumes that the total accident counts
and/or severity can be reduced by application of subsequent remedial treatments by
some fixed proportion, which is well known as accident reduction factors (ARFs).
However, the employment of accident reduction potential assumes that only the excess
of the expected accident count and/or severity over what is normal is reducible.
A commonality between past and current research is that only one
aforementioned criterion is utilized to identify the hot spots, either the accident counts or
the ARP value. Applying these methods, it is conceivable that high number of accidents
associated with some corresponding identified sites is accompanied by low accident
reduction potentials, or vice versa. Considering that to-date there is lack of consensus
results showing which criterion should be used over the other, the hot spots resulting
from either of the standards, which is generally arbitrarily selected by road professionals,
might be subject to the potential waste of safety investment. To remove the
disadvantage, the authors presented a methodology which jointly uses both criteria to
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1634
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conduct HSID. To obviate the general regression to the mean bias surrounding the
observed accident counts, the well accepted empirical Bayesian technique is used to
estimate the expected accident number and expected accident reduction potential. In
addition, the confidence levels are also adopted to guard against the uncertainties
revolving around the estimated values. The confidence level associated with expected
accident number is obtained by using the gamma distribution of the expected number of
accidents of specific road sites; whereas, the confidence level related with accident
reduction potential is computed by using the normal distributions, which are found to fit
the ARPs of road sections well in this paper. Collectively, it is known that the
methodology makes itself unique through three combinations. First, the expected
accident number is used in combination with its associated confidence level to identify
the locations truly having high expected accident counts. Second, the expected ARP is
combined with its associated confidence level to discern the locations whose expected
accident counts are truly higher than those of normal sites. Third, the lists of potential
hazardous locations resulted from the former two steps are combined to flag the final
hazardous location for further exploration. It is expected that more safety benefits would
be obtained when directing the remedial treatments to these identified hazardous
locations.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. First, a detailed description
of how to calculate the expected accident counts and accident reduction potential by
using the EB technique that is provided. This will be followed by a description of data
used and the sequence of steps to apply the proposed methodology. Next, the application
results of the methodology are presented. Conclusions and recommendations will
complete this paper.
EMPIRICAL BAYESIAN TECHNIQUE TO ESTIMATE THE EXPECTED
ACCIDENT NUMBER AND ACCIDENT REDUCTION POTENTIAL
With EB approach gradually being the standard and staple of professional
practice, this method has been described at length in many papers (Hauer, 1992; Hauer
and Persaud, 1987; Hauer et al., 1988; Hauer et al. 1991, Hauer et al., 2002). The
machinery of the EB technique and the corresponding procedures to calculate the
expected accident number and ARP are presented in this section.
The essence of the EB approach is to use two clues for safety estimation, which
include the history of accident occurrence for the interested site and expected accidents
of similar sites which share some common traits (such as traffic volume, geometry,
weather, etc.) with the specific site. Generally the observed accident number (x) is
readily available, and the expected accidents of the similar sites (E{λ}) is obtained
through the multivariate regression model. If a Poisson regression model is fit, its
variance (VAR{λ}) is required to be equal to E{λ} according to the underlying property
of Poisson probability law. To relax this constraint, currently the more general practice
is to use the Negative Binomial (NB) model to fit the accident data taking into account
the overdispersion existing in the various accident counts. In this case, VAR{λ} can be
expressed as follows:
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1635
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VAR{}  ( E{}) 2 /  (1)

Where φ is the overdispersion parameter obtained from the NB regression model.
With the two clues available, the estimated safety of an individual road site and
its associated variance can then be expressed in the following equations:
E{ | x}  wE{}  (1  w) x (2)
VAR{ | x}  (1  w) E{ | x} (3)
Where w is called weight parameter. As verified by Hauer (1997), the weight parameter
resulting in the maximum precision associated with the estimation of the E{λ|x} is
calculated as:
w  E{} /( E{}  VAR{}) (4)
The computation of the expected accident reduction potential is based on that of
the expected accident number. With both E{λ} and E{λ|x} available, the accident
reduction potential (recalling it represents the difference between the expected accident
counts of each specific site and those of the normal of similar sites, E{λ|x}-E{λ})can be
computed through the following equation:
ARP  (1  w)( x  E{}) (5)
If the variance of estimations of each of the specific sites and the similar sites are
assumed to be statistically independent, the variance associated with ARPs of the
specific sites is calculated as:
VAR{ ARP}  (VAR{}) 2  (VAR{ | x}) 2 (6)
So far the procedures to gain the estimates and the corresponding variances have
been shown. However, sometimes it is also useful to have models of entire probability
distribution functions of the safety of the similar sites (λ) and the specific site (λ|x). For
example, they are used in this paper to calculate the confidence level associated with the
estimated accident number. To this end, the following Bayes’ theorem is required:
f ( | x )  P ( x |  ) f ( ) (7)
In the above expression, f (λ|x) represents the posterior probability density function
( pdf )of λ of the site which has x accident counts, P(x|λ) is the probability of recording x
accidents on a site whose expected accident number is λ, and f (λ) is the prior pdf of λ’s of the
reference population (i.e., similar sites ).In general, P(x|λ) is assumed to follow Poisson
distribution. That is, P ( x |  )   x e   / x! (8)
And f (λ) is assumed to follow gamma distribution, That is,
f ( )     1e  / (  ) (9)
Where α and β represent the rate and shape parameters of the gamma probability density
function respectively, and they are computed through the following two equations:
  E{} / VAR{} (10)
  ( E{}) 2 / VAR{} (11)
By substituting Equations (8-9) into Equation 7, it is known that f (λ|x) also follows
gamma distribution and it can be rewritten as:
f ( x)  r k k 1e  rk / (k ) (12)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1636
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Where r and k are also the associated rate and shape parameters. It can be verified that:
r  1 (13)
k  x (14)
Alternatively, by using the properties associated with the gamma distribution
(like the computation of α and β), the two parameters can also be calculated as follows:
r  E{ | x} / VAR{ | x} (15)
k  ( E{ | x}) 2 / VAR{ | x} (16)
DATA DESCRIPTION
To better describe the proposed method, the data used are first herein described.
Three years of accident data (Year 2000-2002) about twelve functional classifications of
road sections were obtained from the Arizona department of transportation (ADOT).
These data pertain to accident number, road section length, number of lanes, pavement
type, etc. However, the data of average annual daily traffic (AADT) are available only
on Year 2000. To take advantage of ‘large sample statistical properties’, four types of
road sections are selected, including rural principal interstate arterial, rural other
principal arterial, rural minor arterial, and rural major collector. The relative information
of these road sections is illustrated in Table 1.
In general, the longer road sections are expected to experience more accidents.
To make the performance metrics comparable across various road sections, all the HSID
methods are applied based on the accident density (i.e., accidents/km).

Table 1. Relative Information of the Four Functional Classifications of Road

Segments.
Total Average
Number of Accidents
Functional Classification Lengths AADT
Sections (2000-2002)
(km) (2000)
Rural Principal Interstate
403 996.113 8122 23810
Arterial
Rural Other Principal
441 1115.128 7012 7603
Arterial
Rural Minor Arterial 436 1132.092 5261 5483
Rural Major Collector 628 1856.064 5285 2637

METHODOLOGY DESCRIPTION
Applying this methodology, the priorities for further examination of various road
sections are ranked using the combined criteria including both the expected accident
counts and accident reduction potentials and the related confidence levels. The estimates
of expected accident number and ARPs represent a significant problem—specifically,
how many accidents would happen in the long term if the safety level remained the same
and how many accidents could be avoided should the safety level of this site be normal,
compared with similar sites. However, these estimates are generally surrounded by
uncertainty resulting form the variation among the empirical data. The potential danger
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1637
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would be that a site may appear to have a large accident number or large ARP merely
due to a random fluctuation in accident counts. This issue can be shown in a simple
example. Suppose there are two sites both expected to have 5 accidents per year.
However, the standard error associated with the expected accident number of Site 1 is
0.5 accidents per year, and that of Site 2 is 2.5 accidents per year. Obviously the
expected 5 accident counts at Site 1 is more likely to be genuine than the same expected
number at Site 2. Therefore, Site 1 should be ranked higher than Site 2. To guard
against the randomness, the confidence levels associated with the estimates are also used
as the criteria and they represent the chance that the high expected values of accident
number and ARP arise not just due to random effects, but from a real safety problem. To
better describe the mechanics of the method, one hypothetical example is introduced.
Suppose there are 20 similar rural minor arterial segments; the safety performance
function fit to accident number per km-year on these road segments is 0.0025 ×
AADT0.7955 and the associated overdispersion parameter is 3.2221. The observed
accident number per km-year and the related AADT of these segments are shown in
Table 2. These road sections are sorted by observed accident number per km-year, in
ascending order.

Table 2. Accident Information of Twenty Hypothetical Road Sections.

Accident
Road Probability Probability
Number
Segment AADT E{λ} VAR{λ} E{λ|x} VAR{λ|x} Associated ARP VAR{ARP} Associated
perkm-
Number withE{λ|x} withARP
year
1 0.280 7629 3.065 2.916 1.707 0.832 0.083 -1.358 3.748 0.242
2 0.540 7178 2.920 2.646 1.789 0.850 0.115 -1.132 3.497 0.273
3 0.910 7578 3.049 2.885 2.009 0.977 0.142 -1.040 3.861 0.298
4 0.950 7446 3.006 2.805 2.014 0.972 0.150 -0.993 3.777 0.305
5 1.270 6871 2.820 2.469 2.097 0.979 0.208 -0.724 3.447 0.348
6 1.450 4623 2.058 1.314 1.821 0.710 0.336 -0.237 2.024 0.434
7 1.460 6107 2.568 2.046 2.077 0.921 0.265 -0.491 2.967 0.388
8 1.740 5580 2.390 1.773 2.113 0.900 0.334 -0.277 2.673 0.433
9 1.900 6054 2.550 2.018 2.263 1.000 0.336 -0.287 3.018 0.434
10 2.770 6809 2.800 2.433 2.786 1.295 0.441 -0.014 3.729 0.497
11 2.840 7892 3.149 3.077 2.996 1.481 0.398 -0.153 4.558 0.471
12 3.400 6665 2.753 2.352 3.051 1.406 0.551 0.298 3.758 0.561
13 3.660 7406 2.994 2.781 3.315 1.596 0.553 0.321 4.378 0.561
14 4.300 6548 2.714 2.286 3.439 1.573 0.692 0.725 3.859 0.644
15 4.620 4346 1.959 1.191 2.965 1.121 0.832 1.006 2.312 0.746
16 6.780 3272 1.563 0.758 3.267 1.067 0.975 1.704 1.825 0.896
17 6.820 4628 2.059 1.316 3.916 1.527 0.958 1.856 2.843 0.865
18 7.320 3157 1.519 0.716 3.378 1.082 0.985 1.859 1.799 0.917
19 7.340 3769 1.749 0.950 3.716 1.308 0.981 1.967 2.257 0.905
20 8.430 6079 2.558 2.032 5.157 2.283 0.979 2.599 4.314 0.895
Note: 1. E{λ}represents the expected accident number of the imaginary similar sites to each specific road
section, and VAR{λ}is the associated variance of the expected values.
2. E{λ|x}represents the expected accident number of each of the 20 road sections, and VAR{λ|x} is
the associated variance of the expected values.
3. ARP represents the accident reduction potential of each specific road sections relative to its
imaginary similar sites, and VAR{ARP} is the associated variance.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1638
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4. Probability associated with E{λ|x} represents the confidence level which indicates the chance
that the expected accident number of the specific road section is higher than its imaginary similar sites,
which is calculated through Gamma distribution.
5. Probability associated with ARP represents the confidence level which indicates the chance that
the expected ARP of the specific road section is greater than zero, which is calculated through normal
distribution.

The application of this methodology consists of several steps:

1. Develop safety performance functions of various classifications of road sites.
The safety performance functions, which can be used to estimate the expected accident
counts of similar sites, are the bases of calculating the expected number of accidents and
ARPs of road sections. The safety performance functions should take only the
characteristics that are significantly related with accident counts in similar road sites.
Details are discussed in a later section.
2. Use the EB technique to estimate the expected accident counts. The estimate is
calculated through Equations 1-4 and it represents the magnitude of the safety problem.
In this paper, this step yields a set of long-term accident counts for each of the functional
classifications of road sections.
In the hypothetical example, the expected accident number of the imaginary
similar sites of each specific road section (the “imaginary” arise from the assumption
that these sites have the same AADT to the specific road section) is calculated through
plugging the AADT value into the safety performance function. For instance, the
imaginary similar sites of road section 1 in Table 2 are expected to have 3.065 (i.e.,
0.0025 × 76290.7955) accidents per km-year. According to Equation 1, the associated
variance is 3.0652/ 3.2221=2.916 accidents2. The weight is then
065/(3.065+2.916)=0.512. From Equation 2, it is known that the expected accident
number of this section is 0.512×3.065+(1-0.512)×0.280=1.707 accidents per km-
year. The associated variance of this estimate is then (1-0.512) × 1.707=0.832
(accidents per km-year)2. The same logic is applied to the remaining 19 road sections
and their expected accident counts are given in Column 6 of Table 2.
3. Calculate the confidence level that the estimated accident number of each of
the road sections is greater than those of its imaginary similar sites. As mentioned
before, the estimated accident counts are subject to uncertainty, and the high estimated
values might result from the random effect or low statistical precision. To guard against
the randomness, the authors employ the well accepted gamma distribution to calculate
the probability (i.e., confidence level) that the expected accident number of the specific
road section is greater than those of its imaginary similar sites. It is rationally expected
that a genuinely high expected accident number of a location is larger than those of the
associated similar sites with a higher probability (say, 90% or 95%). The probability is
computed through the following equation:
E { }
P (  E{} | x)  1   r k k 1e  r / (k )d (17)
0
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1639
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Where the rate parameter r, and the shape parameter k are obtained by using Equations
(15-16), which are easy to calculate when both the expected accident number and
associated variance of the specific road segment are available.
One might ask: Why not use a relatively straightforward and also well
acknowledged coefficient of variations (CV, which is the ratio of the standard error of
estimate to the expected estimate) to ensure the authenticity of the estimated values? The
answer consists of two reasons. First, the centerpiece of the CV-method is to select an
appropriate limiting CV, which is usually arbitrarily selected by road professionals. The
general guidance of selecting the limiting CV given in some references (Harr, 1987;
Hauer et al., 2002) is derived from the standardized normal distribution and might not be
appropriate for the expected accident number of road sites, which has been verified in
much research to follow Gamma distribution. Second, for each road section, the CV of
the accident reduction potential is always greater than the CV associated with expected
accident counts. This phenomenon arises due to the fact that the accident reduction
potential always has the higher variance (see Equation 6) and lower magnitude of the
estimated value. Thus, applying the same pre-selected limiting CV would be unfair to
the criterion of accident reduction potential. Collectively, to make the computation of
confidence levels comparable between the expected accident counts and ARP, the
authors determined to use the probability density functions specific to the two criteria to
calculate the corresponding confidence levels.
Revisiting segment 1 in Table 2, the rate parameter r of its gamma distribution is
1.707/0.832=2.051, and the shape parameter k is 1.7072/0.832= 3.502. Thus, the
probability that its long-term accident number is larger than those of similar sites is
computed as:
3.065
1  2.0513.502 3.5021e  2.501 / (3.502)d  0.083 (18)
0
This means the corresponding confidence level is 8.3%. Following the same
logic, it is known that the confidence levels associated with the five road segments, 16-
20, are greater than 90%. In combination with the results of EB-estimated accident
counts obtained from step 2, segments 17 and 20 are found to have both higher expected
accident counts (i.e., higher than 90% of the 20 sections) and higher confidence levels
(i.e., more than 90%).
4. Estimate the accident reduction potential of each road segment relative to its
imaginary similar sites. With the expected number of accident of similar sites (E{λ}) and
of the specific individual road segment (E{λ|x}) in hand, the ARP can be readily
obtained as the difference of these two expected numbers. The VAR{ARP} is also
simply the sum of the variances associated with the two estimates.
The ARP and related variance of the 20 road sections are shown in the last 2 and
3 columns in Table 2. It is illustrated that the expected ARP of the road sections 19 and
20 are among the top 10%. However, the ARP of segment 20 should be used with care
since the associated variance is much higher than those of the remaining sections. Its
credibility is represented by the confidence level to be computed by the next step.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1640
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5. Calculate the confidence level that the expected ARPs are greater than zero.
Similar to the estimated accident number obtained in step 2, the ARPs can be relatively
high just by chance due to the uncertainty revolving around the estimates. As a
counterpart to the confidence levels associated with expected accident number in step 3,
this step tries to yield a sequence of levels of confidence that the ARPs are larger than
zero. The higher the confidence level, the larger the chance is that greater ARPs result
from really poor safety performances of the road sites.
In step 3, the confidence levels related with the EB-estimated accident number
are obtained through the Gamma-distributed pdf of expected accident counts of the
individual road sections. Similarly, an appropriate pdf of ARPs is required herein to
calculate the confidence levels associated with ARPs. Previous research (Degroot and
Schervish, 2002) has shown that the linear combination of independent random variables
that have gamma distributions with a common value of the rate parameter will also have
a gamma distribution. Since the rate and shape parameters of the two gamma
distributions of the expected accident number of reference population and specific sites
are both different, the ARPs might not follow the gamma distribution. Trying many
different distributions, the normal distributions are found to fit well the ARPs of all the
four different functional classifications of rural road sections. Figure 1 illustrates the
QQ and density plots of ARPs of the Arizona rural minor arterial segments. It is known
that the set of ARPs are slightly negatively skewed and not heavy-tailed.
Therefore, the ARP of each specific road section can be assumed to follow the
normal distribution N(ARPi,VAR{ARP}i), in which the subscript i represents the index
number of various road sections. The probabilities that the ARPs are greater than zero
are then easily obtained by using the different normal distributions. For instance, the
ARP of road segment 1 in Table 2 follows the distribution of N(-1.358,3.748), and it can
be concluded with 24.7% confidence that its accident reduction potential is higher than
zero. For the segment 20 with a suspicious high value of ARP, by using the normal
distribution N(2.599,4.314), it is known its ARP is greater than zero with just 89.5%
confidence. The relatively lower confidence level indicates that the unusually high ARP
of segment 20 (compared with the other 19 segments) might result from its associated
large variance.
6. List the final hazardous locations. The list of hot spots can be identified by
selecting the road sites which satisfy all four of the criteria stated in the previous steps.
That is, the large expected accident number and accident reduction potential and high
confidence levels. This selective standard ensures the hot spots identified are subject to
real safety problems.
By applying the joint standards to the twenty hypothetical road sections in Table
2, it is found that none of the sections would be viewed as hazardous should we employ
90% as the cutoff value (i.e., both confidence levels are greater than 90% and both
estimated accident number and estimated ARP are higher than those of 90% road sites in
the same group). However, if the cutoff value is relaxed to 80%, then four segments, 17-
20, will be screened out for further inspection.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1641
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0.5

2
0.4

Accident reduction potentials

0.3
Density

0
0.2

-2
0.1
0.0

-4 -2 0 2 4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Accident reduction potentials Norm quantiles

Figure 1. Density and QQ Plots of Accident Reduction Potentials of Arizona Rural

Minor Arterial Segments.

METHODOLOGY APPLICATION AND EVALUATION

To evaluate the identification results yielded by the proposed methodology,
alternative identification methods are compared in this paper as well. The comparison is
made among the criterion-combined method and the other two methods, where only one
criterion is used, say, the expected accident number method and the expected ARP
method. One important issue is how to compare the alternative methods in an equitable
setting. As mentioned before, the hot spots identified by the combined method would be
far outnumbered by those of sole-criterion method if the same cutoff value is used (e.g.
90%). In this case, there are alternative ways to make the metrics comparable across the
three methods: ① Comparing the safety performances of the same number of most
hazardous locations identified by various methods (e.g. top 10 hot spots yielded by each
method); ② Comparing the average safety of the different number of identified
locations should the same cutoff value be used across the three methods. A conceivable
deficiency associated with the former comparison metric lies in the bias brought by the
abnormally high observed accident number which poses a large impact on the expected
accident number and ARPs as shown before. The results illustrate that the top dangerous
locations selected by the sole-criterion methods show deviantly large recorded accident
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1642
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numbers. These sites, however, are in general not caught by the criterion-combined
method due to the relatively lower confidence levels. Therefore, it would be unfair to the
combined method if we just compare the safety performances of the same number of top
hazardous locations identified. Comparatively speaking, the latter one is more
reasonable in the sense that the average safety can decrease the effects of the “outliers”
and show the general performance of each method. Taken together, the authors select as
the yardsticks the average expected accident number and accident reduction potential of
identified hazardous locations and the corresponding comparison results are shown in
Table 3. As anticipated, the expected accident number method and the expected ARP
method split the advantages over each other. The former one has en edge in yielding
higher average expected accident number across the four classifications of road sections,
and the latter one beats its rival with higher average expected ARP values. The criterion-
combined method, however, tops among the methods with both the largest average
expected accident number and the largest average expected ARP, indicating the worst
safety performances of the corresponding identified locations.
Table 3. Average Expected Accident Number and Average Accident Reduction
Potential of Hot Spots Identified by Different Methods.
Criterion-combined Expected Accident Expected ARP
Method Number Method Method
Functional Average Average Average
Average Average Average
Classifications Expected Expected Expected
Expected Expected Expected
Accident Accident Accident
ARP ARP ARP
Number Number Number
Rural Principal
15.32 9.85 8.78 1.58 7.30 3.19
Interstate Arterial
Rural Other
10.18 6.31 7.40 3.15 7.11 3.49
Principal Arterial
Rural Minor
9.66 6.35 7.03 2.49 6.40 2.90
Arterial
Rural Major
5.44 3.63 3.14 1.37 3.07 1.47
Collector
Note: 1. The criterion-combined method represents the methodology proposed in this paper which
combines the criteria of expected number of accidents, expected accident reduction potentials and the
relevant confidence intervals.
2. The results are obtained based on accident density (accident counts/ km).

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

Which should be employed as the safety measure to select the potential
hazardous locations for further inspections: accident number or accident reduction
potential? This is one hot issue regarding road safety which remains unresolved
currently. Rather than favor either of them, the authors proposed a methodology
combining the two safety measures to conduct HSID. To improve the identification
accuracy, the well accepted empirical Bayesian technique is used to compute the
expected accident number and accident reduction potential. In addition, the confidence
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1643
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levels are also adopted to guard against the uncertainties revolving around the estimated
values. The confidence level associated with expected accident number is obtained by
using the gamma distribution of the expected number of accidents of specific road sites;
whereas, the confidence level related with accident reduction potential is computed by
assuming the set of ARPs of similar sites to follow the normal distribution.
The method was applied to four functional classifications of road sections in
Arizona. The results illustrated the great advantages of this criterion-combined method
over a couple of other identification methods. This method reveals itself as a superior
method by yielding both higher average expected accident number and higher average
expected ARP.
This method is of great value considering currently there is lack of conclusive
research results showing which criterion is better in identifying the hot spots, the
expected accident counts or the expected accident reduction potential. By combining the
advantages of the two criteria, the method can avoid the waste of investment resulting
from the wrongly identified hot spots by solely using the criterion which might be
proven to be inferior in the future. However, in the long run, more benefits of the
subsequent remedial treatments can be expected should we know for sure when one
criterion should be used over the other. This requires more research efforts be performed
in the future to compare the two identification criteria, compute the benefits of the
treatments directed to the hot spots identified by using the expected accident number or
accident reduction potential, and conclude that which criterion is generally (or in some
special cases) better than the other one. The most recent related research is given by
Hauer et al. (2004).
An issue noteworthy in this paper is that the set of ARPs is assumed to follow the
normal distribution when computing the related confidence levels. The reason is that
these normal distributions are found to fit the ARPs of the four different groups of road
sections within Arizona well. The appropriate distributions of the ARPs should be
explored when applying the methodology in other cases. In addition, the efficiency of
the combined method is dependent on the appropriate cutoff values associated with the
four criteria. It is recommended that preliminary analysis be conducted to select the
reasonable cutoff values. The authors find that if the cutoff values of the confidence
levels are relaxed to 80% (from 90%), the number of identified hazardous locations
increases by around 100%.

REFERENCES
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Hauer, E., J.C.N. Ng, and J. Lovell (1988). Estimation of Safety at Signalized
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Hauer, E., B. N. Persaud, A. Smiley, and D. Duncan (1991). Estimating the Accident
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Hauer, E. (1992). Empirical Bayes Approach to the Estimation of “Unsafety”: The
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Hauer, E. (1997). Observational Before-After Studies in Road Safety. PERGAMON,
Tarrytown, NY.
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for Sites with promise. In Transportation Research Record 1784, TRB, National
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Hauer, E., B. K. Allery, J. Kononov, and M. S. Griffith (2004). How Best to Rank Sites
with Promise. In Transportation Research Record 1897, TRB, National Research
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Laughland, J.C., L.E. Haefner, J.W. Hall, and D.R. Clough (1975). NCHRP Report 162:
Methods for Evaluating Highway Safety Improvements. TRB, National Research
Council, Washington, D.C.
McGuigan, D. R. D.(1981). The use of Relationships between Road Accidents and
Traffic Flow in ‘Black-Spot’ Identification. Traffic Engineering and Control,
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McGuigan, D. R. D.(1982). Nonjunction Accident Rates and their Use in ‘Black-Spot’
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Maher M.J. and Mountain, L.J.,(1988). The identification of Accident Blackspots: A
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Washington, S. and W. Cheng (2005). High Risk Location Evaluation (Final Report
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Wright, C.C., C.R. Abbess and D.F. Jarrett (1988). Estimating the Regression-to-Mean
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Realistic Approach. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol.20, No.3, 199-214.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1645
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Impact of Safe Routes to School on Student Travel Mode Shifting: Based on the
Before and After Period Survey

Jiguang ZHAO1, Huaguo ZHOU2, Jing HUANG3 and Peter HSU4

1
Department of Civil Engineering, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville,
Edwardsville, IL, 62026-1800; PH (618)-650-2541; FAX (618)-650-3374; email:
jzhao@siue.edu
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville,
Edwardsville, IL, 62026-1800; PH (618)-650-2533; FAX (618)-650-3374; email:
hzhou@siue.edu
3
Department of Civil Engineering, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville,
Edwardsville, IL, 62026-1800; PH (618)-650-2541; FAX (618)-650-3374; email:
jinghuang0625@gmail.com
4
Florida Department of Transportation, 11201 N McKinley Dr., Tampa, FL 33612;
PH (813) 975-6251; FAX (813) 975-6278; email: ping.hsu@dot.state.fl.us

ABSTRACT
An evaluation of the effectiveness of the Safe Routes to School (SRTS)
program was conducted with data collected before and after the implementation of
the SRTS improvements at thirteen schools in Hillsborough County, Florida.
Descriptive Statistics indicate that the students’ walking/biking rates and
participants’ subjective feelings toward walking/biking activity improved
significantly at some schools. Those schools with significant increase in
walking/biking rates have similar characteristics.
The school-level walking/biking rates and associated factors are discussed. A
linear regression model is established to estimate the school-level walking/biking
rates. Students’ walking/biking rates is a function of weighted distance to school,
weighted grade level, male student percentage, and average student family size.
Other factors not included in the model, such as the walking/biking environments in
school areas, are found to play an important role as well. Model calibration results
indicate a school flasher sign alone could increase the school-level walking/biking
rates by about 3%.

INTRODUCTION
Traffic congestion and delay continue to be a problem for cities large and
small. Studies showed that as much as 25% of morning rush-hour traffic can be
school related, as automobiles are students’ primary travel mode to school.
Additionally, children have become less active and more overweight. The percentage
of children who are considered severely overweight has tripled in the last 30 years.
The Safe Routes to School (SRTS) program is aimed at encouraging
elementary and middle school students to walk or bike to school through use of
Engineering, Education, Enforcement, Encouragement, and Evaluation measures
(5E). With the 2005 passage of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient
Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), the U.S. Congress
designated $612 million for developing the National SRTS Program (US CDC,

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1646
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2004). The program provides funds for states to substantially improve the ability of
primary- and middle-school students to walk and bicycle safely to school.
A series of SRTS engineering and educational improvement programs were
deployed in Hillsborough County, Florida, including sixty-two speed feedback signs
in eighteen elementary and four middle schools, eighty-eight school flashers in
twenty-five elementary and nine middle schools, and educational programs in thirty-
eight elementary and twelve middle schools. Figure 1 shows pictures of school
flasher and speed feedback signs. For the thirteen schools evaluated in this study,
school flashers were installed in the school areas after the “before period SRTS
survey.”
Hillsborough County is the fourth most populous county in Florida. With a
total area of 3,279 square kilometers, Hillsborough County has the eighth largest
school district in the United States, consisting of 133 elementary schools, forty-two
middle schools, two K-8 schools, and twenty-five high schools (Wikipedia, 2009).

(a) School Flasher (b) Speed Feedback Sign

Figure 1. SRTS improvements in Florida.
SRTS SURVEY
To evaluate the effectiveness of the SRTS program, a before period and an
after period survey was conducted. The standard survey form, designed by the
National Center for Safe Routes to School, was adopted for the before survey. An
additional question was added to the after survey to indicate the improvements
around the school area.
Before and after period survey. Before the implementation of those SRTS
projects, a survey (denoted as “before period survey” below) on the students’ travel
behavior was conducted in April 2007, at fourteen schools that had applied for the
national SRTS infrastructure improvement funding. To track the possible changes on
student travel modes and the parental response to those SRTS projects, a second
survey (denoted as “after period survey” below) was conducted at thirteen of those
fourteen schools in April 2008, one year after the before period survey. The thirteen

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1647
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schools that completed both the before and after period survey were included in this
study.
Student and parent survey. Both the before and after period survey consist
of a student and a parent survey. In the student survey, conducted in the classroom,
teachers were asked to record how students arrived at school and their planned travel
modes home after school on three consecutive days (Tuesday through Thursday).
The following information was recorded on the tally sheets distributed to the teachers:
school name, survey date, class grade level, number of students enrolled in the class,
weather of the weekday, and number of students with each travel mode to/from
school. The parent survey was distributed as a homework assignment to the students
with the following three categories of questions included: (1) questions on the
student’s travel activities, such as travel modes to/from school, corresponding travel
time, etc; (2) questions on student’s demographic information, such as grade level,
distance to school, gender, family size, home location, etc; and (3) questions on
participants’ subjective feelings/opinions on students’ walking/biking activities, such
as school /child’s attitude, their feeling on fun, enjoyment, health of the activity, etc.
Sample size. A total of 1,124 student survey forms and 19,386 parent survey
forms were distributed for the before and after period survey, among which 797
student survey forms and 3,378 parent survey forms were returned (Zhou et al., 2007;
Zhou et al., 2008). Table 1 summarizes the sample size and response rate in the
before and after period surveys.
Table 1. Sample Size in the Before and After Period Survey.
Student Survey Parent Survey
# of # of Resp. # of # of # of Resp.
Survey
Survey Survey Rate Trips Survey Survey Rate
Period
Forms Forms Recorded Forms Forms
Distr. Ret. Distr. Ret.
Before 457 383 84% 22,755 12,318 2,978 24%
After 635 381 60% 16,850 7,068 800 11%
Total 1,124 797 - 39,605 19,386 3,778 -

Sample distribution. A one-year interval existed between the before and

after period survey. Students surveyed in the after period were not exactly the same
as those in the before period. Only when samples in the before and after periods were
extracted from the same population could the students’ walking/biking activity in the
before and after period be compared. To see whether the two samples belong to the
same population, the sample distribution on grade, gender, number of students in the
family, and distance from home to school were calculated. Figure 2 shows the
distribution of distance from home to school in the before and after period.

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1648
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More than 3.2 kilometers 0.8 kilometer Less than 0.4 kilometer

1.6-3.2 kilometers 0.4-0.8 kilometer

(a) Before Period (b) After Period
Figure 2. Distribution of distance to school in the before and after period.
The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S test) was applied to determine whether
the two samples were extracted from the same population. The K-S test is used to
test whether two underlying probability distributions differ, or whether an underlying
probability distribution differs from a hypothesized distribution; in either case
probability is determined based on finite samples.
Test results indicated that no evidence existed against the hypothesis that the
two samples were extracted from the same population, which justified the
comparison between the before and after period.

METHODOLOGY
Two-proportion Z-test. The two-proportion Z-test was used to compare
whether there was a statistically significant difference between two proportions
created by two random samples. Suppose the sample size was n1 and n2 respectively.
Let X 1 and X 2 stand for the number of interested members correspondingly, the Z
values could be determined with the following equation (Walople et al., 2007):
p1 − p2
Z=
1 1
p(1 − p)( + )
n1 n2

X1 X X + X2
in which, p1 = , p2 = 2 and p = 1 .
n1 n2 n1 + n2
In the two-proportion Z-test, a threshold Z value is paired with each given
significance level α ( Z α for two-tail test and Zα for one-tail test). Only when the
2
calculated Z value is greater than the threshold Z value were the two proportion

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1649
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values significantly different at the given significance level. One basic assumption
for the two-proportion Z-test was that X 1 , X 2 , n1 - X 1 and n2 - X 2 should all be
greater than five.
Linear regression model. Linear Regression estimates the coefficients of the
linear equation that involves one or more independent variables that best predict the
value of the dependent variable. The basic assumption for linear regression is that for
each value of the independent variable, the distribution of the dependent variable
must be normal, and the variance of the distribution of the dependent variable should
be constant for all values of the independent variable. Also, the relationship between
the dependent variable and each independent variable should be linear, and all
observations should be independent.

DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

Walking/biking rates in the before and after period. To evaluate the
effectiveness of the implemented SRTS projects, the walking/biking rates and
participants’ subjective opinions towards walking/biking in the before and after
periods was compared. Table 2 lists the students’ walking/biking rates at each school.
On average the students’ walking/biking rate was 4% before the SRTS improvements
and increased to 7% in the after period.
Due to the limitation on sample size, the two-proportion Z-test was not
implemented for schools 4 and 6. At the confidence level of 90%, the walking/biking
rates at schools 2, 3, 5 and 10 increased significantly after the SRTS projects, as
shown in bold in Table 2. There is no significant increase at schools 1, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12,
and 13. However, the overall average students’ walking/biking rate increased
significantly after the implementation of the SRTS projects at the confidence level of
90%.
Table 2 School Level Walking/Biking Rates in the Before and After Period.
Before Period After Period
# of Total Walking/ # of Total Walking/
School
Walking Trip Biking Walking Trip Biking
/Biking Rate /Biking Rate
1 190 3,456 5% 94 1,790 5%
2 150 3,838 4% 136 2,802 5%
3 209 4,829 4% 420 3,777 11%
4* 167 3,376 5% 0 1,341 0%
5 121 3,112 4% 587 2,024 29%
6* 105 2,321 5% 0 1,821 0%
7 16 2,330 1% 12 3,173 0%
8 183 4,112 4% 29 2,367 1%
9 242 5,374 5% 124 3,765 3%
10 81 2,644 3% 707 3,053 23%
11 91 2,703 3% 50 2,669 2%
12 81 1,479 5% 90 1,640 5%
13 185 4,391 4% 104 2,849 4%
Total 1,821 43,965 4% 2,353 33,071 7%

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1650
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Note: * Samples italicized don’t meet the requirement for two-proportion Z-test.

Subjective opinions. The subjective opinions of those participants involved

in students’ walking/biking activities, including students, the schools, and parents in
the before and after periods, were compared as well. The following aspects on
subjective opinions were considered: (1) whether the students’ school encouraged the
walking/biking activities (abbreviated as “School Encourage” below); (2) whether
the parents thought it healthy to walk/bike to school (abbreviated as “Health” below);
(3) whether the students enjoyed the walking/biking activity (abbreviated as “Fun”
below); (4) whether the parents received a walking/biking permission request from
their child (abbreviated as “Permission Request” below); and (5) whether the parents
allowed their child to walk/bike to school alone (abbreviated as “Allowance on
Walking/Biking Alone” below).
The percentage values of positive subjective opinions towards walking/biking
in the before and after period at thirteen schools are listed in Table 3. The two-
proportion Z-test indicated that at the confidence level of 90%, the percentage value
on “school encouragement” at schools 4 and 5, “permission request” at schools 1, 2
and 7, “fun” at school 5, and “allowance on walking/biking alone” at schools 5 and 7
increased after the SRTS projects, as shown in bold in Table 3. On average, the
“school encouragement” increased significantly after the SRTS projects at the
confidence level of 90%, as shown in bold in Table 3. The two-proportion Z-test
wasn’t conducted on some of the items italicized in the table for failure to meet the
requirement of a minimum sample size.
Table 3. Percentage Value with Positive Feelings towards Walking/Biking.
School Allowance on
Permission
Encourage- Health Fun Walking/
School Request
ment Biking Alone
B A B A B A B A B A
1 5% 0% 68% 25% 46% 50% 12% 20% 31% 24%
2 5% 7% 70% 78% 45% 43% 13% 45% 31% 39%
3 13% -** 75% -** 30% -** 42% 30% 37% 32%
4 5% 13% 70% 69% 47% 22% 12% 9% 31% 35%
5 12% 24% 84% 77% 24% 38% 41% 37% 35% 62%
6 5% 50% 72% 56% 49% 22% 9% 4% 36% 8%
7 4% 16% 69% 72% 33% 37% 7% 19% 7% 28%
8 6% -** 70% -** 46% -** 12% 17% 31% 17%
9 16% 33% 74% 73% 31% 38% 48% 19% 43% 28%
10 12% -** 76% -** 30% -** 47% 41% 51% 51%
11 5% 20% 71% 17% 47% 71% 12% 13% 32% 25%
12 5% 7% 71% 67% 45% 25% 12% 14% 34% 21%
13 6% 6% 71% 73% 47% 44% 11% 16% 32% 34%
Total 8% 14% 72% 71% 39% 35% 22% 23% 33% 33%
Note: * B denotes before period and A denotes after period;
** No results were returned from the school.

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1651
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School-level walking/biking rate analysis. The SRTS improvements,

including engineering, education, encouragement, etc., were commonly implemented
at the school level. To help maximize the benefit/cost ratio, it is crucial to select
proper SRTS improvements for candidate schools when planning SRTS programs in
the future. The purpose of this study is to determine those factors significantly
associated with the schools’ walking/biking rates by investigating the relationship
between schools’ walking/biking rates and some school-level factors, including
demographic factors of students in the school (such as distribution of distance from
home to school, age, gender, etc.), socio-economic and environmental factors in the
school areas, etc. The results could facilitate deploying the proper SRTS
improvements for candidate schools in the future.
Distance to school. To investigate the impact of distance on the
walking/biking rate, the distribution of distance was converted to Weighted Distance
(WD), which was defined as following:
=
in which, is the distance level ( =1 for less than 0.4 kilometer, 2 for 0.4-0.8
kilometer, 3 for 0.8-1.6 kilometers, 4 for 1.6-3.2 kilometers and 5 for more than 3.2
kilometers); is the number of students in distance level ; and is the average
distance in distance level , that is, =0.2, =0.6, =1.2, =2.4 and =4.8, with
units in kilometers. The relationship between school-level walking/biking rates and
weighted distance is plotted in Figure 3.

Weighted Distance to School (1.6 kilometers)

Figure 3. Walking/biking rates and weighted distance to school at school level.
Subjective factor. Students’ walking/biking activities were associated with
subjective feelings/opinions as well (Zhou et al., 2007; Zhou et al., 2008). The
relationship between school-level walking/biking rates and percentage of participants
with positive opinions towards the walking/biking activity at school level, such as
“school encouragement”, “fun” and “health” is plotted in Figure 4, which indicates
that “fun” was linearly related with school-level walking/biking rates.

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1652
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(a) School encouragement (b) Fun

(c) Health
Figure 4. School-level walking/biking rate and other factors.
Grade level. Grade level is another important factor that determined the
walking/biking rate at each school(3), (4). The walking/biking rates at middle school
are expected to be higher than that of elementary school if all the other factors are
equal. Even among middle schools, those with more upper grade level students are
also expected to have higher walking/biking rates had all the other factors been equal.
To quantify the impact of grade level, the Weighted Grade (WG) level is introduced
here. The weighted grade level is defined as following:
=
in which, is the grade level ( =0 for kindergarten) and is the number of students
in grade . Figure 5 plots the relationship between the school-level walking/biking
rates and schools’ weighted grade level.
Other factors. Further analysis indicates that school-level walking/biking
rates are also associated with some factors, such as male student percentage, average
number of children in the family, percentage of students requesting walking/biking
permission, and percentage of parents that allowed the walking/biking activities.
These results are plotted in Figure 6.
Linear school-level walking/biking rate model. To predict the school-level
walking/biking rate, a linear regression model was established with factors
mentioned above. A dummy variable was designed to consider the impact of SRTS
improvements (for example, a school flasher sign in this study). To avoid counting
the impact of improvements repeatedly, those subjective factors were not included in

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1653
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the model (for example, parents would be more likely to let a child walk/bike to
school after the SRTS engineering or educational programs).

where, - School-level walking/biking rate;

- Weighted distance from home to school (1.6 kilometers);
- Male student percentage;
- Average number of children in the family;
- Weighted grade level;
- Dummy variable for improvement (0 for before period and 1 for after
period).

Figure 5. Walking/biking rate and weighted grade level.

(a) Male student percentage (b) Average number of children

(c) Permission request (d) Allowance on walking/biking

Figure 6. School-level walking/biking rate and associated factors.

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1654
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The model was calibrated with the data collected in the before and after
period surveys, as shown in Table 4. Only twenty-six observation values were
included (thirteen from the before period and thirteen from the after period,
respectively). Better performance could be expected when the sample sizes are
enlarged.
The model coefficient value indicated that, at school level, the walking/biking
rate will increase with increase in weighted grade level, male student percentage, and
average number of children in the student family; on the other side, the
walking/biking rate will decrease with increase on weighted distance. The school
flasher alone could increase the walking/biking rates about 3%. This model could be
used to estimate the school-level walking/biking rates with fundamental student
information available and predict the school-level walking/biking rates after the
implementation of certain SRTS programs.
Table 4. Coefficient Value of School-Level Walking/Biking Rate Model.
Model Parameters
Coefficient Value -0.048 -0.074 0.205 0.038 0.012 0.031 0.435
Significance Level 0.763 0.029 0.317 0.610 0.048 0.267
Effects of walking/biking environments. Results in Table 2 indicate that the
walking/biking rates increased significantly at schools 2, 3, 5, 10, and on average
level at the confidence level of 90%. It was also observed that the walking/biking
rates were extremely high at some schools. To help provide guidance for future
SRTS projects, besides those schools with significant increase on the walking/biking
rate, those schools with relatively higher walking/biking rates should also be
investigated to find out the real reasons contributing to the high walking/biking rates.
This section explores the relationship between the school-level
walking/biking rate and the walking/biking environment in the school area, which
include connectivity of the roadway network, traffic volume/speed, residential
density, numbers/length of the pathways and sidewalks, etc.
Those school areas well interconnected by connectors and local roads, with
no separation from the adjacent residential communities by any interstate highways
or major arterials, that consist mainly of accessible roadways bearing only low traffic
volume/speed, and which are located adjacent to large residential communities would
favor the walking/biking activity, as shown in Figure 7 (a) and (c). High
walking/biking rates, or with a significant increase on walking/biking rates when
before period rates were relatively low, were observed in these school areas, such as
schools 2, 3, 5, 10 and 13.
On the contrary, high traffic volume/speed, discontinuous
sidewalks/pathways, low residential density along roadway, etc, would degrade the
walking/biking environment and reduce the school-level walking/biking rates, as
shown in Figure 7 (b) and (d). In this study, the observed walking/biking rates were
extremely low in schools with these properties, such as schools 4, 6 and 7.
Conclusively, favorable walking/biking environments could help achieve better
performance for the SRTS improvements.

 
 
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1655
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(a) Roadway network favorable for SRTS (b) Roadway network adverse to SRTS

(c) Street view favorable for SRTS (d) Street view adverse to SRTS
Figure 7. Walking/biking environments in school areas.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
An evaluation on effectiveness of the SRTS programs was conducted with the
data collected before and after the implementation of the SRTS improvements.
Statistical results indicated that the students’ walking/biking rates and participants’
subjective feelings towards walking/biking improved significantly at some schools.
Properties of those populations with significant increase on walking/biking rates
were discussed as well. The survey results indicated that although the improvements
proved effective in some schools, there were still quite a few schools where no
significant change in the walking/biking rate was observed. To increase the walking
and biking trips to/from school, except for the school flashers and speed feedback
signs, more effort should be made to build the walking/biking facilities and have
better connections from home to school.
To help select proper improvements for candidate SRTS schools when
planning SRTS in the future, the school-level walking/biking rate and its associated
factors were discussed. A linear regression model was finally established to predict
the school-level walking/biking rate. Schools with higher weighted grade level,
higher percentage of male students, and large student family size would achieve
higher walking/biking rates. The walking/biking environments in the school areas
were also found to play an important role. A school-level walking/biking rate
predicting model with the walking/biking environmental factors included should be
developed in the future.
Some drawbacks on data collection were also found to impede further
analysis on decisive factors of the students’ walking/biking activities. To investigate
the students’ walking/biking activity and the effectiveness of SRTS improvements, it
is highly recommended to ensure the accuracy and consistency of the survey results

 
 
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by tracking and comparing the students’ travel activities in the before and after
period respectively.

REFERENCES
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2004). “Kids Walk-to-School: Then
and Now—Barrier and Solutions.” http://
www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/kidswalk/then_and_now.htm > (Jan. 17, 2007).
Walople R.E., Myers, R. H. Myers, S. L. and Ye K. (2007). Probability & Statistics
for Engineers & Scientists (Eighth Edition), Pearson Prentice Hall, New York.
Wikipedia (2009). “Introduction about Hillsborough county, Florida.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillsborough_County,_Florida#Education> (Mar.
15, 2009).
Zhou H., and Zhao J. (2007). A Safe Routes to School Survey in Hillsborough County,
Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida,
Florida.
Zhou H., and Zhao J.(2008). Evaluation of the SRTS Projects in Hillsborough
County: Based on a Before-and-After Survey, Center for Urban
Transportation Research, University of South Florida, Florida.

 
 
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Sight Distance Issues of the Retrofitted HOV Lanes and Countermeasures

Zhongren WANG1
1
Division of Traffic Operations, California Department of Transportation, 1120 N
Street, MS-36, Sacramento, CA 95814, PH: (916) 654-6133; FAX (916) 653-3055;
email: zwang@dot.ca.gov

ABSTRACT
A High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lane is typically a retrofitted lane next to the
median along urban freeways that is dedicated to high occupancy vehicles with more
than one passenger. Due to right-of-way constraints, median barrier and bridge piers
may become sight constraints when freeways curve to the left (relative to the direction
of travel), so that stopping sight distance would not be satisfied. On the other hand, since
an HOV lane is supposed to be operating at a higher level of service than the
neighboring mixed-flow lanes, sight constraints may also come from the queued
vehicles in the adjacent congested mixed-flow lanes when freeways curve to the right. It
is the focus of this paper to demonstrate and evaluate these sight distance constraints and
to recommend countermeasures to alleviate or eliminate their impacts, either by
reducing design speed, altering horizontal and cross-sectional design, or both.
INTRODUCTION
Limited right-of-way and economic realities dictate that public investments be
concentrated toward preserving and increasing the efficiency of existing transportation
infrastructure it rather than expanding it. A High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lane, a
dedicated facility for HOVs intending to move more people with fewer vehicles, has
therefore been well recognized as an effective way of mitigating congestion. HOV
facility has become an integral part of freeway system management in California’s
multi-billion-dollar strategic growth plan
[http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/paffairs/news/pressrel/07pr1.htm]. This paper limits its
discussions to freeway HOV lane facilities only.
Installation of HOV lanes can be accomplished through ‘take-a-lane’ or ‘add-a-
lane.’ ‘take-a-lane’ means designating one of the existing mixed flow lanes for HOV
purposes only; while ‘add-a-lane’ means widening the existing facility and increasing
one lane for HOVs. Certainly ‘take-a-lane’ would be most desirable if it were not for the
fear of significantly increased mixed-flow congestion and, consequently, dramatic public
outcry. The California HOV installation practice favors ‘add-a-lane’ instead of ‘take-a-
lane.’
With ‘add-a-lane,’ an HOV lane is typically a retrofitted lane next to the median
along urban freeways. This is because available right-of-way is often times reserved in
the median. In addition, HOV lanes are supposed to operate at a higher level-of-service
than the neighboring mixed-flow facilities; it makes no sense to place HOV facilities as
the right-most lane.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1658
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An HOV lane is separated from mixed flow lanes on its right-hand-side (relative
to the direction of travel). Such separation may be hard-buffered using concrete barriers
so that the HOV lane has the dedicated right of way, or it may be soft-buffered using
demarcated zones by pavement markings. An HOV lane may be contiguous with mixed
flow lanes, too, so that the only separation would be the regular dashed lane marking.
Soft-buffered separation is the most popular in Southern California, while the
contiguous ‘separation’ is preferred in Northern California. Examples for hard-buffered
and soft-buffered HOV lanes are shown in Figures 1 and 2, respectively.

Figure 1. Hard buffer-separated HOV lane with dedicated right-of-way.

Source: http://www.itsdocs.fhwa.dot.gov/JPODOCS/REPTS_TE/13663.pdf

Figure 2. Soft buffer-separated HOV lane in southern California.

Source: http://www.ncdot.org/projects/hov/graphics/buffer.jpg
The location of an HOV lane and the retrofitting nature render HOV lane design
prone to the influence of right-of-way constraint, which is sometimes unavoidable. For
example, when non-standard lane, left-hand-side shoulder, and right-hand-side buffer
width have to be used, stopping sight distance may not be satisfied at a horizontally
curved segment. As shown in Figure 3, a one-foot shoulder has been used for some
existing HOV facilities in this country. More importantly, , HOV lane sight distance is
often adversely affected by the densely queued vehicles in the neighboring mixed-flow
lanes at horizontally curved segments. The immediate consequence is that the sudden
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1659
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stop of leading HOVs would not be able to be reacted to in time by the trailing vehicles,
causing rear-end or side-swipe collisions.
It is the focus of this paper to demonstrate when sight distance constraints occur
and recommend specific measures to correct such constraints, either by reducing design
speed, altering horizontal, vertical, and cross-section design, or both.
SIGHT DISTANCE DEFINITIONS AND ITS IMPORTANCE
Sight distance refers to the length of the roadway that is visible to the driver
(AASHTO 2004). As the minimum sight distance, stopping sight distance must be
provided on 100% of the roadway system so a driver with the standard eye height can
see an object of standard height with sufficient time to stop safely (Layton, R. 2004).
Stopping sight distance is applied where only one obstacle must be seen in the roadway
and dealt with.

Figure 3. Existing non-standard HOV lane cross section.

Source: Available online at
http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/Projects/SR520Bridge/Plans/CS_Exist.htm.
Sight distance is an essential design element having something to do with the
following six design variables (Layton, R. 2004):
. Perception-reaction time
. Driver eye height
. Object height
. Vehicle operating speed
. Pavement coefficient of friction
. Deceleration rates
. Roadway grade
Clearly, sight distance criteria impact virtually all elements of highway design
and many elements of highway operations and control. Indeed, the study showed that
sight distance has a significant influence on roadway safety. Ten vertical curve locations
at which there was less than the AASHTO policy minimum available stopping sight
distance were found to have an average of about 40% more accidents than nearby
locations with adequate sight distance (Cleveland et al. 1985).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1660
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In general, the HOV lane sight distance design must consider all seven design
variables and ensure that at every point along the HOV lane, the SSD would be satisfied
100% of the time, so that unexpectedly stopped vehicles resulting from traffic queues or
other conditions in the HOV lane would not cause accidents.
WHEN DOES SIGHT DISTANCE CONSTRAINT OCCUR?
Sight distance constraint means that sight distance required by a certain operating
speed for an HOV could not be met, due to the blockage of a drivers’ view. At a
horizontal curve, an HOV drivers’ view may be blocked by either inside (left-hand-side
per driving direction) or outside (right-hand-side per driving direction) obstructions.
Inside obstruction, as shown in Figure 4, typically comes from median barriers, bridge
piers, plantings, or combinations thereof. Outside blockage is typically a result of dense
traffic, say, queued vehicles in the mixed flow lane immediately adjacent to the HOV
lane.

Figure 4. Inside obstruction of median barriers and bridge piers.

Horizontal obstruction will impact a driver’s sight distance only when the
obstruction is taller than the driver’s eye height. A standard passenger car driver sees at
a height of 3.5 ft. or 1070 mm (AASHTO 2004), and typical median barriers that run
only 32 and a quarter inches (819 mm) tall (AASHTO 2002) should not cause
obstruction. However, there are many situations when median barriers would be taller
than driver’s eye height. Tall-walled concrete safety-shape barriers, which are much
taller than 3.5 ft., are engineering realities as shown in Figure 4. Glare screens on top of
barriers may have to be installed to prevent gawking. Barriers may be placed along
vertical upgrades. On the outside, queued vehicles in an adjacent mixed flow lane can
also be more than 3.5 ft. tall. Therefore, situations when median lane sightlines are
blocked are not at all uncommon.
Per AASHTO Design Manual (AASHTO 2004), the minimum sight distance
necessary for a driver to safely stop before an obstruction can be calculated as follows:

SSDd = v ⋅1.47 ⋅ t +
(v × 1.47 )2 （1）
2⋅a
Where, SSDd = Necessary SSD for a given design speed, v, ft; a = Deceleration rate at
11.2 ft/s2; SSD = Sight distance, ft., v = Design speed for SSD computation, mph; t =
Perception-reaction time, and is set at 2.5 s. For example, when v = 65, and 55 mph, the
SSD65 and SSD55 are 646, and 494 ft., respectively.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1661
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SSD is closely related to road geometry (Caltrans 2004). For HOV lane, the
allowable SSD at a curved segment can be calculated as:
R ⎡ ⎛ R − m ⎞⎤
SSDs = ⋅ ⎢COS −1 ⎜ ⎟⎥ （2）
28.65 ⎣ ⎝ R ⎠⎦
Where, SSDs = Available SSD for a given road geometry, ft; R = Radius of the centerline
of the HOV lane, or the lane nearest to the obstruction, ft.; and m = Ordinate offset,
distance between the centerline of the HOV lane or the lane nearest the obstruction and
the line of sight at point of obstruction.
Ordinate offset, m is related to the lane width and shoulder width. When inside
blockage is concerned, m can be determined as half of the HOV lane width plus the
inside shoulder width, when the barrier is tall enough to block driver’s eyesight. Figure 5
depicts the inside constraint situation, where arc AB is the sight distance, and DD′ =m, or
the ordinate offset. While the outside blockage, m, can be calculated as half of the HOV
lane width plus the outside buffer width (if any), plus half of the difference of the width
of the mixed flow lane next to the HOV lane and the width of a standard vehicle. The
standard vehicle can be assumed to be a regular passenger car. Figure 6 depicts the
outside constraint situation.

Figure 5. Inside constraints.

In the design of HOV lanes, SSDs allowed by road geometries must be greater
than or equal to SSDd as required by a certain design speed. Otherwise a sight distance
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1662
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constraint will occur. Based on Equation (1) and (2), a design chart can be developed as
shown in Figure 5. Among SSD, m, and R three variables, any one can be determined
given the other two using this Figure. SSD is related to design speed v following
Equation (1), so SSD and v are in fact one independent variable. For example, for
SSDd=500 ft., and m=16, then R should be around 2000 ft., as shown by the two thick
arrowed line in Figure 7. If a radius less than 2000 ft. is used, then SSD blockage will
occur.
Typical non-standard features for retrofitted HOV lanes include non-standard left
shoulder, HOV lane, adjacent lane or soft-buffer width, and most critically insufficient
horizontal curve radius. As shown in Figure 3, inside shoulder and outside buffer may be
as narrow as 1 or 0 feet, respectively. HOV lane width may be as narrow as 11 feet. Due
to the nature of retrofitting, HOV lanes typically make use of, and are therefore
confined by, the existing alignment.
EVALUATION OF THE CURRENT HOV RETROFITTING DESIGN
When a horizontal curve curves to the left, the inside shoulder width and HOV
lane width govern. For example, when a freeway HOV lane width whov= 12 ft., inside
shoulder width wi = 2 ft., the ordinate offset m = wi + whov/2 = 8 ft. At a design speed of
65 mph, the required sight distance SSD = 646 ft., and the minimum curve radius, Rmin
can be back-calculated as 6520 ft. If the HOV lane is narrower, say whov = 11 ft., then m
= 7.5 ft., and Rmin = 6955 ft. Clearly, if the RGmin specified in a design guide is less than
Rmin, then HOV lane stopping sight distance would not be satisfied.

Figure 6. Outside constraints.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1663
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32
R=200' R=2000'

28 R=1600'
R=600'
Lateral Clearance, ft.

24
R=1000' R=4000'
20

16

12
R=8000'
8

4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Sight Distance, ft.

Figure 7. Relationship between SSD, m, R, and v.

When a horizontal curve curves to the right, the HOV lane width, whov, outside
buffer width, wo, mixed flow lane width, wm, and vehicle width, wveh would govern,
instead. For example, when whov = 12 ft., wo = 4 ft., wm = 12 ft., wveh = 6 ft. (Toyota
Camry is about 5.8 ft. wide, and Chevrolet Tahoe is 6.6 ft. wide), then m = wo + whov/2 +
(wm-wveh)/2 = 13 ft., therefore Rmin = 4011 ft. at a design speed of 65 mph. If the HOV
lane is narrower, say whov = 11 ft., and wo = 0 ft. (no soft buffer), then m = 8.5 ft., and
Rmin = 6136 ft. Clearly, if the RGmin specified in a design guide is less than Rmin, then
HOV lane stopping sight distance would not be satisfied.
A host of such calculations was performed for different combinations of design
speeds, HOV lane width, shoulder width and outside buffer width; the results were
tabulated in Table 1 and Table 2 respectively for inside and outside constraints. It can be
observed that higher design speed requires larger minimum curve radius. It is also clear
that the minimum radius increases when the inside shoulder or outside buffer width
decreases. It is desirable to maintain an outside separation between the HOV and mixed
flow lanes.
What is particularly interesting is to observe that outside constraints may
sometimes take control of the HOV lane design. For example, the minimum radius
determined without an outside soft buffer may be lower than that when an inside
shoulder is 2 ft. This provided a serious alert for designers to pay attention to the
operation situations for a typical HOV lane: free flow of HOVs right beside queued
vehicles in the adjacent lane. Based on Table 1 and 2, it looks like such special attention
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1664
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is warranted when the existing horizontal curve radius is less than the minimum
calculated.

Table 1. Minimum horizontal curve radius look up table (curves left).

Design Inside HOV Min. Design Inside HOV Min.
Speed Shoulder Lane Radius Speed Shoulder Lane Radius
mph Width, ft. Width, ft. ft. mph Width, ft. Width, ft. ft.
55 2 11 4067* 65 2 11 6966
55 2 12 3588 65 2 12 6530
55 4 11 3210 65 4 11 5499
55 4 12 3049 65 4 12 5224
55 10 11 1966 65 10 11 3369
55 10 12 1904 65 10 12 3263
*SSD is calculated using t=2.5 s. When curve radius is less than the minimum, sight distance would not be satisfied.

Table 2. Minimum horizontal curve radius look up table (curves right).

Design Outside HOV Min. Design Outside HOV Min.
Speed Buffer Lane Radius Speed Buffer Lane Radius
mph Width, ft. Width, ft. ft. mph Width, ft. Width, ft. ft.
*
55 0 11 3588 65 0 11 6136
55 0 12 3388 65 0 12 5795
55 2 11 2904 65 2 11 4967
55 2 12 2772 65 2 12 4741
55 4 11 2439 65 4 11 4172
55 4 12 2345 65 4 12 4011
*Mixed flow lane width=12 ft., vehicle width=6 ft., and t=2.5 s. When curve radius is less than the minimum, sight distance would
not be satisfied.

POTENTIAL COUNTERMEASURES
Several measures can be taken to help make up for sight distance shortages for
HOV lane drivers. Geometric improvement would be the most desirable. Increasing
horizontal curve radius, using standard lane width and shoulder width, would help. At a
horizontal curve segment, the use of a separation buffer will also help prevent queued
vehicles from blocking an HOV lane driver’s line of sight.
Since sight distance is closely related to the HOV lane’s operating speed and
driver behavior, obviously limiting the HOV lane operating speed will be an effective
countermeasure. As Tables 1 and 2 show, a speed limit of 55 mph will only need 70% of
the minimum horizontal curve radius that 65mph speeds entail.
When sight distance is somewhat constrained, one has all the more reason to
assume higher alertness on the driver’s part. If the driver’s perception-reaction time is
reduced to 1 second, rather than the design value of 2.5 seconds, the minimum a
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1665
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horizontal curve radius will reduce is by about 40%: comparing the minimum radii listed
in Tables 1 and 3, and Tables 2 and 4.

Table 3. Minimum horizontal curve radius look up table (curves left).

Design Inside HOV Min. Design Inside HOV Min.
Speed, Shoulder Lane Radius, Speed, Shoulder Lane Radius,
mph Width, ft. Width, ft. ft. mph Width, ft. Width, ft. ft.
*
55 2 11 2318 65 2 11 4216
55 2 12 2173 65 2 12 3953
55 4 11 1829 65 4 11 3328
55 4 12 1738 65 4 12 3161
55 10 11 1120 65 10 11 2038
55 10 12 1084 65 10 12 1974
*SSD is calculated using t=1 s. When curve radius is less than the minimum, sight distance would not be satisfied.

Table 4. Minimum horizontal curve radius look up table (curves right).

Design Outside HOV Min. Design Outside HOV Min.
Speed, Buffer Lane Radius, Speed, Buffer Lane Radius,
mph Width, ft. Width, ft. ft. mph Width, ft. Width, ft. ft.
55 0 11 2045* 65 0 11 3720
55 0 12 1931 65 0 12 3513
55 2 11 1655 65 2 11 3011
55 2 12 1579 65 2 12 2874
55 4 11 1389 65 4 11 2528
55 4 12 1336 65 4 12 2431
*Mixed flow lane width=12 ft., vehicle width=6 ft., and t=1 s. When curve radius is less than the minimum, sight distance would not
be satisfied.

CONCLUSIONS
An effort was made to demonstrate the horizontal sight distance issues of High
Occupancy Vehicle lanes due to its typical retrofit nature. Both inside and outside
constraints were analyzed. Combinations of design speed, inside shoulder width, outside
buffer width, mixed flow lane width, and curve radius were analyzed, and minimum
curve radii were determined. It was found that the minimum curve radius is influenced
heavily by the inside shoulder and outside buffer width. The current geometric design
standard should be reviewed to take HOV driver’s needs into consideration. This is
especially true when contiguous HOV lanes are designed, because the dense traffic in an
adjacent mixed flow lane would block an HOV driver’s views.
Several measures can be taken to help make up for sight distance shortages for
HOV lane drivers. Geometric improvement would be the most desirable. Increasing
horizontal curve radius and using standard lane width and shoulder width would both
help. At horizontal curve segments, using a separation buffer will also help prevent
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1666
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queued vehicles from blocking an HOV lane driver’s line of sight. Last, but not least,
limits the HOV lane operating speed during periods when the neighboring mixed flow
lane is congested will be another effective one.
REFERENCES
AASHTO (2002). Roadside Design Guide. American Association of State Highway and
Transportation Officials. Washington, D.C.
AASHTO (2004). A Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets. American
State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C.
Caltrans 2004. California Highway Design Manual, California Department of
Transportation, Sacramento, http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/oppd/hdm/hdmtoc.htm
(12/24/2009).
Cleveland, D.E., Kostyniuk, L.P., Olson, P.L., and Fancher, P.S. (1985). “Stopping sight
distance parameters.” Transportation Research Record 1026, TRB, National
Research Council, Washington, D.C. pp. 13-23.
Layton, R. (2004). “Stopping sight distance and decision sight distance.” Discussion
paper No. 8A, http://kiewit.oregonstate.edu/access/dp8a_2004.pdf (12/24/2009).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1667
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Revamping of the Caltrans Traffic Operations Academy

Zhongren WANG1, Jacqui GHEZZI2, Adam FONG3,

Diana GOMEZ4, and Carol WILBON5
1
California Department of Transportation, 1120 N Street, MS-36, Sacramento, CA
95814; PH (916) 654-6133; FAX (916) 653-3055; email: zwang@dot.ca.gov,
2
California Department of Transportation, 1120 N Street, MS-36, Sacramento, CA
95814; email: ghezzi@dot.ca.gov,
3
California Department of Transportation, 1120 N Street, MS-36, Sacramento, CA
95814; PH (916) 263-4991; email: adam_k_fong@dot.ca.gov,
4
California Department of Transportation, 1120 N Street, MS-36, Sacramento, CA
95814; PH (916) 651-1255; email: diana_gomez@dot.ca.gov,
5
California Department of Transportation, 1120 N Street, MS-36, Sacramento, CA
95814; PH (916) 654-4830; email: carol_k_wilbon@dot.ca.gov

ABSTRACT
The traffic operations academy has been conducted in-house at the California
Department of Transportation (Caltrans) for more than 20 years to give junior engineers
working knowledge on fundamental traffic operations. In the past two years, the
academy was revamped to emphasize the Caltrans system management philosophy,
refresh the course material, and most importantly, improve the way it was delivered. The
revamped academy was very well received by the students and won an award from
management. In this paper, the experience and lessons learned from the revamp of the
academy are presented, with special focus on course design and course delivery
strategies and tips. It is hoped that such experience will benefit all DOT in-house
training programs in other states.
INTRODUCTION
Traffic Operations Academy (TOA). Training is an important piece of a
government agency such as the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). It
helps employees to develop their technical, personal, and organizational skills,
knowledge, and abilities. In-house training also serves to preserve corporate memory
and help usher in new directions. On an annual basis, Caltrans dedicates millions of
dollars for employee training purposes.
In the Traffic Operations area, three academies and many other specialized
training courses are offered every year. The three academies include the Traffic
Operations Academy, Traffic Safety Academy, and Electrical Engineer’s Academy;
while the specialized training courses may include those that call for special, proprietary
and/or in-depth training, such as the training of a traffic simulation package. As general
survey-level courses, the academies are typically developed and taught in-house; while
the specialized training courses may be offered by outside vendors, consultants, or
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1668
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university tech-transfer programs. Currently, the annual training budget is about $200k,
and is mainly supported by capital development programs.
The Traffic Operations Academy (TOA) is a week-long training course prepared
primarily for entry level engineers. It is the only survey-level course on system
management and congestion relief that discusses the day-to-day operations of
transportation systems. Traffic safety topics are covered in a separate Traffic Safety
Academy.. Over the last 20 years, more than 1500 employees have been trained in 37
sessions held around the State. The TOA is offered regularly twice a year, one in Spring,
and the other one in Fall.
Why revamp the TOA? Over the last 10 years, not many changes were made to
the TOA. With its primary concentration on freeway operations, it was formerly known
as the Freeway Operations Academy. A recent review of the student’s comments
indicated that there was a need to refresh some of the course materials. For example,
ome facility inventory information was five years old.. Students from rural Districts
(Caltrans has 12 Districts, with some urban, some rural, and some in-between)
questioned why conventional highways were not covered. Complaints were also heard
about overlapping material in a few of the courses, and about the classroom-type of
teaching style, saying that for a week-long training like this, more student participation
was necessary to avoid PowerPoint® overdose.
More importantly, Caltrans has adopted a new approach to improve mobility
across California, with an emphasis on productivity, reliability, flexibility, safety, and
performance. This new approach calls for a paradigm change for Caltrans from a PS&E
(Plans, Specifications and Estimates) factory (road-construction entity) to a mobility
enterprise (system management agency and mobility provider). This migration revolves
around the system management philosophy, or the so-called mobility pyramid.
As shown in Figure 1, the mobility pyramid consists of a layered list of system
management strategies, namely (1) System monitoring and evaluation; (2) Maintenance
and preservation; (3) Smart land use and demand management / value pricing; (4)
Intelligent transportation systems, traveler information / traffic control and incident
management; (5) Operational improvement; and finally (6) System completion and
expansion. Of these strategies, “system monitoring and evaluation” is listed as the base
of the pyramid, while “system completion and expansion” the top. This representation
signifies that Caltrans will focus on improving system productivity rather than system
expansion to meet the ever-increasing traffic demand. All Caltrans employees, not just
the engineers for the Traffic Operations area, should recognize this change and align
themselves with the new system management philosophy.
To resolve the student complaints, and inculcate the department-wide emphasis
on improving system productivity, the TOA was revamped starting in the year of 2007.
The course contents were re-written and re-structured, with more student participation
and classroom activities included. Throughout the TOA, the mobility pyramid was used
as a central theme to chain the various system management strategies together, so that
the students will not only understand the traffic operational strategies, but will also
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1669
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develop a wider perspective of system management, and carry out the new system
management philosophy in their daily routine.

Figure 1. The mobility pyramid.

COURSE CONTENTS
General guidelines. Selecting training materials was an important step in this
revamp. One general guideline that was adhered to is that the training materials must be
either from the student comments, a statewide survey, or from the mobility pyramid.
This general guideline ensures that those and only those topics that the students need at
work will be discussed. In addition, one should bear in mind that the TOA is a survey-
level course in a complete training tree (a series of training courses). It is not designed to
prepare experts, and therefore, the course contents should be neither too difficult nor too
easy.
Matrix of learning points. In order to facilitate the material selection process, a
matrix of learning points was developed. A learning point represents a certain piece of
knowledge or practice that the students “must know”, “should know”, or “it would be
nice to know”. A schematic matrix of learning points is shown in Table 1. Following the
schematic matrix, the instructors first identified the learning points for the course they
teach, and then the learning points were reviewed and finalized by the entire teaching
team (all the instructors). Statewide surveys were conducted for some topics, such as the
conventional highway analysis to find out what exactly the students need.
The learning point matrix proved to be very instrumental in helping the
instructors to structure, select, and present the materials. For example, in the area of
freeway capacity analysis, one would imagine that “How to identify a bottleneck” “What
is a bottleneck?” and “How many bottlenecks are there in California?” may belong to
the “must-know”, “should-know”, and “nice-to-know” category, respectively. Therefore,
the instructors can emphasize more on the “must-know” type of learning points, while
less on the “nice-to-know” type, such as “How many bottlenecks are there in
California?” The matrix also greatly facilitated the development of the pre- and post-
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1670
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assessment questions. The pre- and post-assessment questions are used at the beginning
and end of the TOA, respectively to assess how much the students have improved. The
questions are identical in both assessments.

Table 1. Schematic matrix of learning points.

CLASS OBJECTIVE Learning Point 1
MAIN TOPIC 1 Learning Point 2
SUB-TOPIC 1
SUB-TOPIC 2
MAIN TOPIC 2
SUB-TOPIC 1 Learning Point 3

MAIN TOPIC 3
SUB-TOPIC 1 Learning Point 4
SUB-TOPIC 2 Learning Point 5

As a general rule, the assessment questions should tie back to the learning points,
and should belong to the hatched “Ah Ha!” area in the conceptual schematic as shown in
Figure 2. If a question is only known to less than 20% of the audience, it is deemed to be
too difficult or the “way over my head” area in Figure 2; while if known to more than
80%
of the audience, then too easy, or the “Duh!” area in Figure 2. Because the audience is
different for every academy, it takes some trials and adjustments to identify the materials
that are just-about-right.

Way over my head!

<20% known

Ah Ha!

Duh!
80~100% known

Figure 2. Choice of learning points.

With the development of the learning point matrix, session duration
determination becomes less subjective. How long a session should last is justified by
session materials, or the number of learning points. The learning point matrix also makes
it possible for the course designers to balance the duration of different sessions by
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1671
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adding, shifting, or reducing the number of learning points, and make the entire TOA
more cohesive and integrated.
Course contents. In the previous Freeway Operations Academy, subjects
covered included freeway capacity analysis, lane closure management, ramp metering,
high occupancy vehicle lanes, field safety, Transportation Management Centers (TMC)
and field elements, California Highway Patrol (CHP)/Caltrans coordination, incident
management, public affairs, and tort liability considerations.
Following the students’ comments, the revamped academy was expanded to
include System Management/Corridor Management, Conventional Highway Analysis,
and incorporated lots of interactive exercises, such as the TMC Role-Play and the Global
Exercise. The arrangement is shown in Table 2. The TMC Role-Play is used to
demonstrate the information flow process within TMC and in-between TMC and field to
clear an incident. Students learn the different roles, the communication process, and the
command system. Experienced instructors mentor the role-players and assist in staging
the entire process.

Table 2. Course contents and arrangement for the revamped TOA.

„ Day 1: „ Day 2: „ Day 3:
o Opening o Freeway Analysis o High Occupancy
o Pre-Assessment o Transportation Vehicle Lanes
o System Management Plans o California
Management/ o Lane Closure Highway Patrol
Corridor Management (CHP)
Management o Field Safety o Ramp Metering
o Conventional o Public Affairs
Highway Analysis
„ Day 4: „ Day 5:
o TMC and Field o Tort Liability
Elements Consideration
o Incident o Jeopardy Game
Management (Review)
o Lunch w/ Guest o Post-Assessment
Speaker
o Global Exercise
o TMC Role-Play
Note: Monday and Friday are both half days to allow for travel.

The Global Exercise is like a capstone project for the TOA. It is designed for the
students to use the knowledge they gained from the week-long course to develop a
congestion-relief project, from bottleneck identification, alternative strategy evaluation,
and familiarization with the project development process. The benefits of system
management without system expansion will be highlighted.
STYLE OF TEACHING
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1672
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The teaching team. The TOA is organized by a core team at Caltrans

Headquarters, which takes care of the routine administration activities, such as setting up
meetings, academy enrollment, equipment, and scheduling. The core team is supported
by a group of instructors, who are deemed experts in their field in course development
and delivery. All instructors work on a volunteer basis.
Personalize the talk. The instructors come from the Districts and Headquarters
Traffic Operations. They are encouraged to share their personal stories and anecdotes at
work to personalize the PowerPoint© teaching. All instructors are asked to use their
personal photos as the title page of their slides. These photos are typically loaded with
the presenter’s career stories, hobby, and/or real life experience. Once the stories are
told, the classroom is often filled with surprise, laughter, and attention; and hence the
presenter is ready to get started, taking advantage of the relaxed atmosphere. As an
instructor, put yourself in the student’s place, would not you want to know more about
the instructor, even before listening to his/her presentation?
In one of the presentations, the instructors not only start by sharing their
background and travel stories, they also ask what the audience wants to hear about the
presentation, and promise to answer all of the students’ questions. In this setting, the
atmosphere turned active almost immediately, and certainly the instructors already knew
much of the group’s expectations from the very beginning. “A good start is half the
success.”
Built-in activities. For such a week-long training, an important aspect of
teaching is to keep the audience awake, and avoid slide-poisoning. For the TOA, every
instructor is asked to allocate at most half of the allocated session time for PowerPoint®
presentation. Using the rule of 2-minutes per slide, the instructors may calculate the total
number of slides allowed, and then develop the slides based on the learning point
structure, and organize the materials based on their “must-know”, “should-know”, or
“nice-to-know” nature. Instructors should always give priority for those “must-know”
contents. For example, a 60-minute presentation may only allow for 15 slides of lecture.
The other half of the allocated session time must be used for some type of activity. The
activities may include: 1) Questions and answers; 2) Multi-media, such as sound tracks
and video clips; 3) Classroom exercises; 4) Role play; and 5) Class-room demonstrations.
All these activities can be presented using slides, which are not counted against the total
number of slides allowed.
In addition to the activities listed above, the TOA also included a T-Shirt contest,
a Jeopardy game, a lunch speech, and an after-work technical tour to increase student
participation. The T-Shirt contest is typically organized at the end of Day-3, with a
theme of marketing the TOA. It is intended for the students to find solutions thinking
outside of the box. Engineers typically use their left brain to think, but this exercise
gives them the opportunity to practice the other side of the brain! Interestingly, the
engineers also demonstrated amazing artistic talent, as demonstrated by the T-shirt
design shown in Figure 3. The T-shirt articulates that the system management pyramid
taught in the “Freeway Operations Academy” is the California TRAFFIC SOLUTION.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1673
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Figure 3. Sample student T-shirt design.

The lunch speech is typically given by experts or public figures, featuring a
significant project or significant development in the system management area. For
example, in the last TOA, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA)
representative was invited to talk about the roadway tolling program in the City of Los
Angeles. The after-work technical tour is typically a visit to Caltrans facilities, such as
the TMC.
The TOA culminates in the Jeopardy game, modeled after the Television show,
and based on the program developed by Professor Washburn at the University of Florida.
The students are grouped and tested on the assessment questions. This is the third time
that the students are exposed to these questions, before the post-assessment. (After the
pre-assessment, the instructors are asked to review the assessment questions at the end
of their session.) As shown in Table 3, the improvement is significant. Using June’08
TOA as an example, for all the assessment questions, on average, those that were
answered correctly jumped from 34% for the pre-assessment to 91% for the post-
assessment; and those that were answered “Don’t Know” reduced from 51% to 1%.

Table 3. Evaluation results and improvement.

Pre-Assessment, % Post-Assessment, % Improvement, % # of
Answer Don’t Answer Don’t Answer Don’t Students
*
Correctly Know Correctly Know Correctly Know
Apr. ΄08 34 39 88 2 +54 -37 28
June ΄08 34 51 91 1 +57 -50 40
Dec. ΄08 33 46 83 1 +50 -45 38
Feb. ΄09 27 54 83 1 +56 -53 35
* “Don’t Know” means that the students do not know the answer to the assessment question.

It is our ideology to teach the test, with no catches. Because all the assessment
questions are tied to learning points, and those topics that the students ought to know, it
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1674
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is beneficial to expose the students to them again and again to achieve the best training
result. This is where professional training differs from typical school education. The
purpose of professional training, such as the TOA is to let every trainee be able to
perform what is taught. The typical normal distribution for student grades, as shown in
Figure 4a is not good enough (the average grade is “C”). Instead, the distribution skewed
to the right, as shown in Figure 4b, with a very minor tail on the lower grades, should be
achieved (the average grade is “B+”).
COURSE EVALUATION
The two-level evaluation process. Course evaluation was done in two levels. In
the first level, the evaluation was based on the student’s impressions about the course
contents and instructor’s knowledge and delivery skills. After each session, the students
were immediately asked to provide feedback on the particular session and instructor. For
team teaching, the instructors were evaluated individually. At the end of the TOA, the
overall course design and instructor’s knowledge level and delivery skills were
evaluated another time. Table 4 is a sample of the overall evaluation form. Clearly, on a
scale of 1 to 5, the overall rating is above 4.
In the second level, about 50 assessment questions based on the learning points
were used to evaluate how much the students have learned/improved. The questions
were done both at the beginning and the very end of the TOA, so that a before-and-after
comparison for each individual student could be made. As mentioned above, the
students were exposed to these assessment questions three times before the post-
assessment, and therefore a significant improvement is expected.

F D+ C+ B+ A+

EDUCATION

a.

F D+ C+ B+ A+

TRAINING

b.

Figure 4. The difference of grade distribution for education and training.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1675
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Table 4. The overall evaluation form.

Content Item Average Rating
1 I had the prerequisite knowledge for this course 3.86
2 I was well informed about course goals and objectives 4.22
3 Course content satisfied my expectations 4.49
4 The training was relevant to my job 4.57
Course Design
5 Learning objectives were attainable 4.56
6 Participant materials (handouts, help menus, etc.) were effective 4.43
7 The way the course was delivered i.e. video, computer, classroom) 4.51
met my needs
8 Course activities gave me sufficient practice 4.27
9 Course activities included sufficient feedback from instructor(s) or 4.50
others
10 Overall level of course difficulty was suitable 4.32
11 The pace of the course was appropriate 4.05
Instructor
12 The instructor(s) was well prepared 4.65
13 The instructor(s) was skilled in delivery 4.59
14 The instructor(s) was knowledgeable in the subject matter 4.70
15 The instructor(s) answered my question(s) sufficiently 4.70
Setting
16 The training environment was comfortable 4.43
17 The training equipment worked effectively 4.38
Results
18 This course will improve the quality of my work 4.51
19 I would recommend this course to others 4.65
20 This training was a worthwhile investment of my time 4.65

At the academy, student open comments are cordially welcomed, encouraged,

and aggressively solicited. For the first three academies resulting from the restructure,
special sessions were organized to seek student comments for further improvement. The
comments were later analyzed, and acted upon at the post-academy plenary meeting of
the teaching team. For example, the conventional highway analysis session was added
based solely on students’ request.
What did the students say? The revamped TOA was very well received by the
students statewide. The teaching team kept on receiving emails of praise from the
participants. For example, students in the December 2008 academy responded to the
new approach: “Thanks again for the most excellent Academy; I definitely have come
away with more knowledge and wisdom…” “What a great academy! “Best training
session I have attended since I joined Caltrans 17 years ago.” One sent us an email after
the academy, saying “Thank you so much for all the effort you put into it. I've done
nothing but boast about it since I've been back to the District.” Another one issued a
new challenge: “I would like a more detailed 2-day course on traffic operations!” Early
this year, the teaching team won a Caltrans “superior accomplishment” award.
INSTRUCTOR DEVELOPMENT
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1676
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

Most of our instructors are only experienced engineers, and not experienced
instructors. Teaching entails a different set of skills. As some of our instructors
commented, “I knew all these things, but just could not tell them in a way to make it
easily understood”. This is a typical engineer-instructor’s syndrome, which highlights
the importance of instructor development and training.
At Traffic Operations, there is one experienced training officer, who is ready to
mentor the teaching team. No new instructor will be put on stage, until he/she goes
through the dry run process. The instructors are videotaped and later-on self- and peer-
examined and critiqued. This has proved to be a very effective process for instructors to
improve public speaking and teaching capabilities. In the mean time, instructors are
urged to sit in each other’s sessions to learn from each other’s teaching skills. At post-
academy meetings, good teaching skills are discussed and shared. The instructors are
also encouraged to participate in Toastmaster programs to improve public speech
capabilities.
A fundamental rule for every instructor is to avoid lecturing-only type of
instructing. People learn by doing, and not by just listening. When teach driving, one
would not only lecture on how to turn the wheel, and shift the clutches. Driving is easy,
but it is not for those who have never sat behind the wheel. As an instructor, one should
not hold unrealistically high level of expectations of the students, just because you know
it all. Instead, one should give the opportunity for the students to practice. Training is
not done until the trainee is put on the job.
Team-teaching is encouraged. A two person team, one from Headquarters, and
one from the District helps present both statewide and local/District-wide perspectives.
Furthermore, team-teaching provides a means of risk-management and also the
necessary instructor continuity the academy needs.
TIPS GLEANED
In delivering the TOA, some proven tips have been gleaned. For example, the
instructors should not change the slides after the slides are sent to the Headquarters core
team; this will make sure that the student’s copy will match exactly the instructor’s! In
addition, instructors should go over their slides before their presentations during the
break time.
As academy coordinator, we found that a paddle with “Repeat the Question!”
was very useful. When asked a question, most instructors, especially the inexperienced
ones, have the tendency of directly answering the question, without repeating it. It is a
waste of time if the audience only hears the answer of a question. Some of the audience
will ask the instructor to repeat the question, anyway. Therefore, the “Repeat the
Question!” paddle raised in time to alert the instructor proved to be very effective, if the
question was not heard by the entire audience.
Instructors should be encouraged to sit in each other’s sessions, especially those
related sessions, such as ramp metering and HOV lanes. This will help eliminate
repeated slides, redundant contents, and make the entire academy connected and
integrated. For example, the topic of freeway Performance Measurement System (PeMS)
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1677
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needs to be touched upon in freeway capacity analysis, lane closure management and the
TMC and field element sessions, but it should not be discussed in detail every time.
Training sessions should always stay on time. Do not cut the break time short to
make up for certain session’s overruns. One should realize the difficulty of sitting
around all day long, without the long-awaited break time to stretch out.
Handouts should not be given out too early. A just-in-time handout will help
show the seamless planning of the organizers. Handouts should have pre-punched holes,
because loose sheets are hard to manage for the students. In the case of team teaching,
coordination between the instructors becomes critical. The instructors should not argue
with each other in front of the students. When writing on flip charts, instructors should
use darker colored pens to provide better legibility at the back of the training room.
Yellow-, pink-, or green-colored pens should never be used.
SUMMARY
The structure of the Caltrans Traffic Operations Academy, as an example of
DOT in-house training was presented. The way the courses were designed, the
interactive style of teaching, and especially the incorporation of the new Department-
wide system management philosophy were discussed in detail. During the entire process
of the development and delivery of the TOA, it is felt that the challenge to put such a
course together is how to make the course cohesive, enjoyable, while concise,
considering the multi-disciplinary nature of the course materials and the diverse
background of the students. It is as challenging to develop a well-rounded teaching team
who understands staff’s needs, and is ready to cater to such needs using effective
delivery skills.
In terms of course material development, we found that the learning point matrix
is very instrumental. In terms of delivery styles, ample built-in interactions with the
students not only help the student to learn, but also help the student to enjoy while
learning. This successful revamp and delivery of the week-long course raised the bar for
all training sessions, in-house or by external entities.
For the future, the plan is to enroll students from local agencies, such as counties
and cities to make it a joint training academy to further carry out the system
management philosophy. Participants from sister states may also be welcomed to serve
as peer exchanges. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) Education and Training
Committee can also start discussions in terms of better in-house training in a DOT
environment, and coordinate the nation-wide activities.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The contents of this paper reflect the views of the authors who are solely
responsible for the facts and accuracy of the data presented herein. Besides the authors,
the instructors also include Scott Alvarez, Osama Assaad, Dawn Helou, David Lau,
Adrian Levy, Barry Loo, Tamie McGowen, Dave McPeak, and Joseph Rouse, Lt. Dana
Sampson of the California Department of Highway Patrol, Dick Wehe, and Jacques van
Zeventer.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1678
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Characteristics of Operating Speed for Proper Speed Limit

Xiaoduan SUN1, Yulong HE2, Shuangjie WANG3, Yiyi WANG4

1
Civil Engineering Department, University of Louisiana, USA, xsun@louisiana.edu
2
Beijing University of Technology, China, ylhe@bjut.edu.cn
3
First Highway Consultants CO. LTD. China
4
University of Texas at Austin, USA

ABSTRACT
Using design speed as a primary consideration for selecting the speed limit of a
freeway has been a common practice since the opening of the first freeway in China
about twenty years ago. This practice has been widely questioned and challenged in
recent years by the public, freeway operators, and law enforcement. Speed limits solely
based on the location specific design speed in many newly completed freeways in the
country have been under intensive public scrutiny, particularly at locations where the
operating speeds are much higher or lower than the speed limits.
One key consideration in establishing speed limit is the operating speed that
closely relates to driver behavior, vehicles’ mechanic properties, and the design speed.
Driver behavior varies greatly by factors including cultural background and stage of
economic development. Undoubtedly different social, economic, and cultural
environments contribute to significant variation in driver behavior. The methods used by
developed countries in speed limit selection may not be suitable, or at least not entirely
applicable, to situations in developing countries. Thus, as part of a project sponsored by
the Chinese Ministry of Communication, the goal of this study is to investigate the
relationship between speed limit and operating speed in different freeway environments.
The principal findings from the study are: (a) operating speed is only loosely associated
with speed limit, (b) for a given speed limit, the average speed varies greatly depending
on the characteristics of the location, (c) standard deviation of operating speed
distribution on freeways in China is generally much bigger than on a typical freeway in
developed countries, and (d) there are huge speed gaps between small and large vehicles.
The last two findings represent a big safety problem for freeway transportation. The
combination of speeding and slow running vehicles on freeways significantly lowers
freeway capacity, as well. The unique speed characteristics observed by this study
prompts a few suggestions on speed limit and speed management.
INTRODUCTION
Being a fundamental concept in highway transportation, speed has been a much
sought-after research topic for many years because of its huge impact on highway
efficiency and safety. It is used both as a design criterion to promote consistency and as
a performance measure to evaluate operation. There are three basic speed terms: design
speed, speed limit, and operating speed. Theoretically speaking, a speed limit should be
equal to or smaller than the design speed. However, due to a somewhat vague definition
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1679
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of design speed (using a speed restricted by the location’s geometrics to define the
design speed for a long stretch of roadway), establishing a proper speed limit for
highways has not been a straightforward matter, particularly in developing countries
with relatively limited experience in freeway operation.
In general, the design speed of a roadway is the maximum speed at which a
motor vehicle can operate safely under perfect weather conditions. This maximum speed
is mainly determined by elements of horizontal curves and vertical grades. For a long
stretch of freeway, design speed has minimal impact on operating speed unless a tight
horizontal radius or a steep grade is present. Using the speed control element at one
challenging location to define the design speed for a long segment of freeway appears to
be a problem for establishing a speed limit.
Although it has been recognized in recent years that a freeway’s speed limit
should be a function of many factors, such as design speed, operating speed, safety, and
roadside development, how to weigh each factor in the speed limit selection process has
often become a subject of debate and sometimes controversy in China.
The development of proper guidelines for establishing a speed limit that can
maximize travel efficiency and safety for freeways in China is urgently needed because
of the rapid expansion of the national freeway system. Using design speed as a primary
factor in selecting a speed limit has been a common practice since the opening of the
first freeway in the country about twenty years ago. This practice has been questioned
and challenged in recent years, primarily due to the definition of design speed for
freeways. The speed limits dictated by the design speed at a single location with a
challenging geometric element for a long stretch of freeway have been under intense
public scrutiny, particularly at locations where the operating speeds are much higher or
lower than the speed limits. Enforcing the speed limit on highways where the majority of
vehicles run faster than the speed limit causes the public suspicions on the purpose of
speed limit and diminishes compliance with the traffic law. On the other hand, many
traffic crashes were linked to speeding vehicles in the last few years, which have led to
the belief that high speed limits compromise freeway safety and are partly responsible
for about 100,000 annual traffic fatalities in China.
One key consideration in establishing speed limit is an operating speed that,
among other things, is closely related to driver behavior. Driver behavior varies greatly
by factors including cultural background and economic development. Undoubtedly,
different social, economic, and cultural environments contribute to significant variation
in driver behavior. The methods used by developed countries in speed limit selection
may not be suitable (or at least not entirely applicable) to developing countries. Thus, as
part of a project sponsored by the Chinese Ministry of Communication on speed, the
goal of this study is to investigate the relationship between design and operating speed
under different highway environments and to recommend guidelines for establishing
speed limits for freeways in China while maintaining and restoring credibility to speed
limits.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1680
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REVIEW
As a result of many studies, posting speed limits based on a statistical analysis of
observed operating speeds is widely considered an effective and reasonable practice. A
review conducted by the Technical Committee under the Institute of Transportation
Engineers (ITE, 2007) found that the 85th percentile speed is the predominant factor
used in setting speed limits (by ninety-nine percent of the agencies surveyed in United
States). The review also found that roadway geometry, accident experiences, and
roadside development (in addition to the 85th speed) are considered by more than ninety
percent of the agencies. Political pressure was also reported as a new factor. Due to these
reasons, some jurisdictions allow deviations from the 85th percentile speed by 5 and 10
mph. Reasons for the deviation include politics (thirty-three percent), accidents (thirteen
percent), roadway areas (eleven percent), and roadway geometry (nine percent).
Recognizing the complexity of selecting a speed limit, Speed Zone Guidelines
(Kay Fitzpatrick, 2003) recommends that a speed limit be established based on an
engineering study with a re-evaluation at a maximum interval of every five years to
account for changes. The speed limit should be set to the nearest 5 mph increment to the
85th percentile speed.
A comprehensive study conducted for a National Highway Cooperative Research
Program (NCHRP Report 504) concludes that strong relationships between design speed,
operating speed, and posted speed limit are desirable, and that these relationships should
be used to design and build roads that engender the desired operating speed for a facility.
The study results show that while a relationship between operating speed and posted
speed limit can be defined, a relationship of design speed to either operating speed or
posted speed cannot be defined with the same level of confidence. More interestingly,
based on data analysis, the study concludes that design speed appears to have a minimal
impact on operating speed unless a tight horizontal radius or a low K-value is present.
Previous research has also suggested that speed uniformity is very important for
highway safety and efficiency (FHWA, 2001). In summary, the common theme from
these studies is that speed limit should be credible, compatible with user expectations,
and consistently applied.
DATA COLLECTION
To study operating speed under different speed limits, it is important to know
what exactly is happening in the real world, which requires collecting the individual
speeds of vehicles on highways in a non-intrusive manner. Considering the safety of the
survey crew and the data validating process, MetroCount was used as the data collecting
instrument in this study. Compared to other speed data collection methods, this device is
easy to install, less intrusive, and provides higher data accuracy. By placing rubber tubes
on highway surfaces, the device collects traffic volume and speed data continuously for
many hours. MetroCount can differentiate twelve types of vehicles. Based on the
definition in the Chinese Highway Specifications, any vehicle with an axle length less
than or equal to 3.8 meters is considered a small vehicle, and the rest are classified as
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1681
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large vehicles. Autoscope, a camera-based traffic data collection device, was used for
the data verification.
To capture the unique characteristics of operating speed at each site, the position
of a speed limit post and the highway’s horizontal and vertical alignments determine the
exact location of the data collection sites. The selected sites are also far away from
tollgates and ramps to avoid the effects of traffic merging and diverging. The minimum
time period of data collection is four hours during regular weekdays. Whenever possible,
longer time periods were used for data collection, such as six, twelve, and twenty-four
hour periods, provided that traffic was at or near free-flow speed condition. Free-flow
speed is the term used to describe the average speed that a motorist would travel if there
were no congestion or other adverse conditions (such as bad weather). The safety and
availability of local enforcement dictated the collection time period. The data collection
lasted about four months on seven freeways from four provinces across the country.
Two freeways are located in the plain terrains and the rest are situated in the mountain
terrains. The freeways in the District of Chongqing have better design alignment
compared with the freeways in Yunnan province, although all freeways are in mountain
areas. To eliminate weather impact, all speed data were obtained under good weather
conditions (no rain or snow).

RESULTS
The collected operating speed data are organized by the type of terrain. Table 1
lists the summery of data collected from the two freeways in the plain areas.
Table 1. Basic Statistics of Speed Data from Flat Area.
Location Basic Statistics Small Vehicle Large Vehicle
(Speed in km/hr.)
JingZhuBei (JZB) Average 103.2 73.9
Freeway in Henan Standard Deviation 26.9 13.9
Province th
85 Percentile 132.8 91.0
Speed Limit 120 90 & 100*
Sample size 6195 6320
Jingjintang (JJT) Average 105.2 74.4
Freeway connecting Standard Deviation 12.9 8.7
th
Beijing and Tanggu 85 Percentile 118.0 83.0
Speed Limit 110 110
Sample size 4505 1380
* 90 for large freight vehicles and 100 for large bus

Based on Table 1, the average speed on both freeways are similar despite the
difference in speed limit. Other similarities are (a) the speed variation for small vehicles
is bigger than the one for large vehicles, and (b) there is a significant speed gap between
small and large vehicles (as large as 30 km per hour). This held true even on the JJT
freeway, where the speed limit is the same for both types of vehicles. The difference
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1682
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between these two freeways is the magnitude of the standard deviations. The JJT
freeway experiences a smaller variation in operating speed than the JZB freeway. The
85th percentile speed is 132.8 km/h on JZB freeway and 118 km/h on the JJT freeway. It
is alarming to know that there is no lane restriction for large vehicles on most freeways
in China at the present time. Allowing vehicles with different speed limits to move in the
same lane is not a safe practice. It has been well recognized in highway safety that speed
difference between vehicles increases crash risk, and as the difference increases so does
the risk (FHWA, 2001).
A large speed variation creates problems not just in highway safety but also in
speed management. About 13% of large vehicles and 27% of small vehicles were
speeding even though the average speed is below the respective speed limit, which,
based on our observations, presents a typical freeway situation in the country.
The speed summary data in Table 2 for three freeways in one mountainous area
illustrate again the significant speed gap and the difference in standard deviation
between small and large vehicles, despite the speed limits in this mountain area being
lower than those in the plain areas. Mainly because the radius of all curves in this area is
bigger than 1,500 meters, the characteristics of operating speed are somewhat similar to
those in the flat terrain.
Table 2. Basic Statistics of Speed Data from Mountainous Area (Chongqing).
Freeway and Basic Statistics Small Large Site Specific Features
Location (Speed in km/h.) Vehicle Vehicle
Yulin Average 121.8 91.7 At the bottom of a long
downhill slope
Standard Deviation 28.0 16.8
85th Percentile 148.9 95.4
Speed Limit 100 100
Sample size 1947 932
YuQian Average 98.2 80.1 At horizontal and vertical
K17+500 Standard Deviation 15.9 curve combination, the
16.9
th bottom of down slope 1.5%,
85 Percentile 114.3 97.9 horizontal radius bigger than
Speed Limit 100 100 700 meters
Sample Size 3947 1741
YuQuan Average 119.1 83.2 At horizontal and vertical
K22+000 curve combination, start of a
Standard Deviation 24.5 19.0 down slope 4.9%. horizontal
85th Percentile 142.2 103.6 radius bigger than 700
Speed Limit 100 100 meters, speed reducing strips
Sample size 3855 2005
YuQian Average 114.1 90.0 At bottom of a 7-km down
K35+000 Standard Deviation 25.5 19.7 slope (3.8%)
85th Percentile 136.2 109.2
Speed Limit 100 100
Sample size 3199 1661
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1683
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YuYi Average 97.0 78.1 At tangent between two

Standard Deviation 18.2 15.9 horizontal curves which
stretch out on the same side
85th Percentile 114.5 95.4 (back to back), a site with
Speed Limit 80 80 many vehicles speeding
Sample size 7459 2176
It is interesting to note that the average operating speed for small vehicles at the
four data collection sites is much higher than their corresponding speed limits, and is
almost the same as the speed limit at one site (98.2 vs. 100). However, in the flat terrain,
the average operating speed for small vehicles is lower than the speed limit on both
freeways listed in Table 1. More interestingly, the average speed on three of the four
sites is even higher than the average speed from the sites on the flat terrain even though
the speed limit is lower in the mountainous terrains than the speed limit on the flat area.
This mere fact implies that a high proportion of small vehicles are capable of negotiating
the horizontal and vertical curves on mountainous terrains at a speed much higher than
the “design speed.” However, the high speed variation evidenced by the calculated
standard deviation suggests a complex problem that cannot be solved by a simple
solution such as increasing speed limit based on the 85th percentile speed. Similar to the
results in Table 2, the average operating speed for large vehicles is lower than the speed
limit, which indicates that large vehicles’ operating speed is pretty much determined by
operating capacity and not speed limit. Their relatively small speed variation further
supports this conclusion.
The results from nine data collection sites situated in a mountainous area with
very challenging geometric features are listed in Table 3.
Table 3. Basic Statistics of Speed data from Mountainous Area (Yunnan).
Location Basic Statistics Small Large Ste Specific Features
(Speed in km/hr.) Vehicle Vehicle
K39+680 Average 54.9 45.5 Down hill at 3%
Standard Deviation 9.8 6.5
th
85 Percentile 66.3 51.9
Speed Limit 60 60
K42+120 Average 76.0 63.8 At horizontal and vertical
curve combination, down
Standard Deviation 16.0 12.4 hill slope 3% and curve
85th Percentile 92.4 76.3 radius 930
Speed Limit 100 80
K42+670 Average 77.1 68.3 A very challenging
Standard Deviation geometric design with a
15.6 11.4
th serious small radius curve
85 Percentile 93.1 79.1 (430 meters) and 6% down
Speed Limit 80.0 60.0 hill.
K43+170 Average 85.8 72.6
The purpose of these three
Standard Deviation 20.1 16.3
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1684
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85th Percentile 107.7 87.0 collection sites is to

Speed Limit investigate the speed limit
80.0 60.0
compliance. The speed limit
K44+245 Average 69.9 59.0 sign is posted at k43+170
Standard Deviation 16.7 11.2
85th Percentile 89.9 70.3
Speed Limit 80.0 60.0
K44+340 Average Same geometric design as
57.5 49.0
before with rumble strip for
Standard Deviation 13.8 8.5 speed control
85th Percentile 72.5 58.0
Speed Limit 80.0 60.0
K44+400 Average 62.6 55.4
Standard Deviation 18.5 10.7
85th Percentile 83.2 66.5
Speed Limit 80.0 60.0
K44+775 Average 58.1 52.7 At horizontal and vertical
curve combination, down
Standard Deviation 10.4 8.4 hill slope 5% and curve
85th Percentile 68.7 61.0 radius 400 meters
Speed Limit 80 60
K46+000 Average 77.4 68.0 At horizontal and vertical
Standard Deviation 15.9 11.7 curve combination, down
hill slope 2.5% and curve
85th Percentile 93.5 78.8 radius 500 meters
Speed Limit 80 60
Average sample size 3315 3709

The operating speed at those sites along the seven-kilometer freeway segment
shows a very different picture. Even with the lower speed limits (80 km/h at seven sites
and 60 km/h at one site), average speeds at all sites, except one located on a six percent
downgrade, are lower than the posted speed limit for small vehicles. The dramatic
difference in average speed between the two mountainous areas (Chongqing vs. Yunnan)
can be explained by the design geometrics. The radius of horizontal curves on the
mountainous freeway in Yunnan is smaller than 500 meters, and vertical grades are five
to six percent at several locations, which is considered very critical for freeways by
many design specifications. This fact supports the argument made previously that
vehicle operating speed is mainly restricted by capability of handling driving conditions,
not by speed limit.
Similar to previous findings, the average speed for large vehicles at seven sites in
the Yunnan freeway are lower than the speed limit. The other two sites with an average
speed higher than the speed limit for large vehicles are situated on a segment with a six
percent downhill grade. The speed limits for large vehicles at all sites, except the first
one, are lower than that for small vehicles. Again, similar to the previous results, the
standard deviation for large vehicles is smaller than that for small vehicles. As discussed
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1685
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before, the results for this geometrically challenged freeway segment further indicate
that large vehicle operating speed is limited by geometrics and not the posted speed limit.
After organizing the results by terrain, the following figures explore the
relationship, if any, between speed limit and operating speed, between average speed
and speed gap, and between average speed and standard deviation for small and large
vehicles.

160

y = 0.6024x 1.1446
R2 = 0.5866
120
speed

80

y = 0.4004x 1.1916
R2 = 0.5792
40
40 60 80 100 120 140 160
speed limit (km/h)

85th average

(a) Small vehicles

120

y = -0.0205x 2 + 4.0427x - 100.4

R2 = 0.6441
speed

80

y = -0.0096x 2 + 2.1079x - 32.917

R2 = 0.601

40
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
speed limit (km/h)

85th average

(b) Large vehicles

FIGURE 1. Speed limit vs. operating speed.

Figure 1 shows an expected trend between operating speed and speed limit for
both types of vehicles. As speed limit increases, so does operating speed. However, the
increasing pattern is different between the two vehicle types. As illustrated in Figure 1a,
where the diagonal line represents the equality between speed limit and operating speed,
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1686
Green•Intelligent•Reliable © 2010 ASCE

the average speed predicted by the regression model is always smaller than or
approximately equal to the speed limit (when speed limit is 120 km/h). Figure 1 also
shows that the gap between the predicted 85th percentile speed and the speed limit gets
bigger as speed limit increases. In Figure 1b, the average speed predicted by the
polynomial regression model is always smaller than or approximately equal to speed
limit (when speed limit is 60 km/h). Figure 1b also demonstrates that the predicted 85th
percentile speed becomes lower than the speed limit when the speed limit exceeds 100
km/h, and this confirms the previous discussion that, to a large extent, the operating
speed of large vehicles is mainly dictated by driving capabilities. Driven by the furious
competition of the highway freight transportation market, a high proportion of trucks on
freeways are overloaded, which seriously restricts operating speed. That explains why
the operating speed for large vehicles does not go up as speed limit increases.
Notice that in Figure 1 the operating speed is not as close to the design speed
(presented by the speed limit) as it should be. It is clear that the relationship between the
design speed and the actual operating speed of vehicles on the freeways is weak. Under
a speed limit, operating speed in terms of average and the 85th percentile varies greatly
(particularly for small vehicles).
Another observation for all sites studied is the wide distribution of speed for both
large and small vehicles. The standard deviation in the freeway in China mentioned
above is about 19 km/h for speed limit under 100 km/h, while the standard deviation in a
compatible freeway in Louisiana is only 3.3 miles per hour (5.4 km/h) (FHWA, 2001).
The speed variation increases as speed limit increases, and as evidenced in Tables 1, 2,
and 3, the standard deviation for small vehicles is always bigger than for large vehicles.
For traffic operation, a smaller speed variation is better. The huge disparity in operating
speeds observed in this study cannot be ignored since it indicates an operating problem
for freeway safety and efficiency.
In addition to the problematic speed variations, the speed disparity between small
and large vehicles is another traffic hazard that widely exists today on freeways in China.
Similar to one of our previous studies (Chen, 2007), there are two significantly different
speed distributions observed at all data collection sites. As shown in Figure 2, the speed
gap positively correlates with the average operating speed of small vehicles. Based on
the regression model that has the highest R-square among all regression models
developed in this paper, the gap can be as big as 33 km/h when the average speed for
small vehicles reach 120 km/h. For various reasons, this speed gap on most of the
freeways in China will not disappear any time soon. Thus, it is important to separate
large vehicles from small vehicles by lane assignment wherever the separation is
possible.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1687
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40
y = 0.0049x 2 - 0.4463x + 16.836
R2 = 0.8642
30
speed gap

20

10

0
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
average speed (km/h)

FIGURE 2. Average Small Vehicle Speed vs. Speed Gap between Two Types of
Vehicles.

CONCLUSION
The results of the study reveal the unique characteristics of freeway operating
speed in China, on which the following conclusions and recommendations are made:
1. Developing a restricted-lane regulation for large vehicles is urgent for
improving overall freeway operating performance. The data from all sites
indisputably demonstrate the big gaps in operating speed between small and large
vehicles that greatly reduce roadway capacity and increase crash risk. The lane
restriction can be easily established for freeways with more than two lanes in each
direction. For four-lane freeways (two in each direction), interchange density could
dictate feasibility, considering traffic merging and diverging activities at an
interchange. Another alternative design is to have separate ramps for both types of
vehicles, similar to the I-95 turnpike in the United States. Considering that many
major freeways in the country’s major economic development regions need
expansion after almost twenty years of operation, it is crucial to design an expansion
that separates the big trucks from the small vehicles in lane assignment.
2. Establishing an advisory minimum speed limit and enhancing enforcement
efforts by electronic devices might be the most practical solution in combating
problems caused by huge speed differences from the same type of vehicles. As
observed at each data collection site, the large variation in operating speed mainly
comes from diversified driving behavior. There are very conservative drivers at one
end of the spectrum mixed with the extremely aggressive at the other end, with many
moderate drivers in between. The disparity in vehicle mechanical capacity (from the
world-renowned to the locally-manufactured vehicles) contributes a small part to the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1688
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speed differential problem. The minimum speed limit can prevent substandard
vehicles from entering the freeway, and electronic enforcement devices, which have
been very successful in urban roadways throughout China, can mitigate the
aggressive driving behavior with high monetary fines.
3. Only after the above two recommendations are executed can the 85th
percentile speed be considered as a major factor in developing proper speed limits
for freeways. Just using the 85th percentile as a reference in speed limit selection
could encourage capable vehicles to run faster, but would have no impact on slow-
moving vehicles because of their mechanical limits. This could make speed
distribution even wider and freeway operation worse than it already is in terms of
safety and productivity.
4. Since design speed has a minimum impact on operating speed, unless a
challenging geometric design element is present, design consistency must be
emphasized for future freeway design and construction in China. If a highway is
constructed in a consistent manner along which all physically challenging segments
are designed with the high standard for both horizontal curves and vertical profile,
then the speed limit can be mainly determined by the trade-off between safety and
travel efficiency.
5. Design speed is location specific. It can change from segment to segment
within the same highway. Setting up a speed limit based on one location with
challenging geometric features for a long stretch of freeway generates speeding
problems that are hard to enforce. In mountainous areas, inconsistent design (designs
leading to different maximum running speeds along a freeway) is not unusual in
China because of the financial and sometimes environmental constraints. Under such
situations, a speed transition zone should be designed with a proper transition speed
limit, which is the focus of another study conducted by the same research group.
Another important consideration in speed limit is highway safety. Exploring the
relationship between speed limit and crash frequency can shed light on what a speed
limit should be in order to maximize safety. While collecting speed data, the research
team also obtained crash information at the majority of these data collection sites. The
research on the safety impact will be reported subsequently in another paper.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The results from this paper are from a research project sponsored by the Chinese
Ministry of Communication under the 2007 Western Region Transportation Program.
The authors wish to express their gratitude to all graduate students from the
Transportation Research Center at the Beijing University of Technology who
participated in the seven-month long data collection. This paper is indebted to their hard
work performed in the field. Special thanks to Li Bing, Zhang Zhung, Huo DianJian,
Huo Shuzheng, Liang Jia, and Chen Hu.

REFERENCES
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FHWA, 2001, Discretionary Cooperative Agreements to Support the Demonstration and

Evaluation of Setting Limits, (2001) Appendix A - Guidelines for Setting Safe and
Reasonable Speed Limits, 66 (106) Fed. Reg. 29,855-29,861.
FHWA, 2001, Discretionary Cooperative Agreements to Support the Demonstration and
Evaluation of Setting Limits, (2001) Appendix B - Guidelines for Public
Information and Education (PI&E), Programs for Rational Speed Limits 66(106)
Fed. Reg. 29,855-29,861.
ITE, 2001, Technical Committee (97-12), “Survey of Speed Zoning Practices” ITE
Informational Report, Institute of Transportation Engineers, Washington, DC
Kay Fitzpatrick, Paul Carlson, Marcus A. Brewer, Mark D. Wooldridge, and Shaw-Pin
Miaou (2003) “Design Speed, Post Speed and Operating Speed Practices.”
LTRC Final report, 2009 “Evaluation Of The Traffic Safety Benefits Of A Lower Speed
Limit And Restriction Of Trucks To Use Of Right Lane Only On I-10 Over the
Atchafalaya Basin”: Louisiana Transportation Research Center, 2009-7-29
NCHRP Report 504, “Design Speed, Operating Speed, and Posted Speed Practices.”
Xiaoduan Sun and et al, (2007) “Characteristics of Traffic Crashes on Freeways in
China: A Case Study of Jingjintang Expressway” Journal of TRB, No. 2038
Yongsheng Chen and Xiaoduan Sun, (2007), “Speed Difference and Its Impact on
Traffic Safety.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of TRR, No. 2038
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1690
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An Integrated Design for Lane Allocation and Signal Optimization at

Signalized Intersections

Wenteng MA1

1
Citilabs, 1040 Marina Village Parkway, Alameda, California 94501 USA; PH +1
(510) 523-9700; FAX +1 (510) 523-9706; email: wma@citilabs.com

ABSTRACT
Signal timing and lane allocation are most important settings at signalized
intersections to control the operation. Efficiently operated traffic signals and
reasonably designed lane markings can reduce congestion and bring about
significant payoffs in time and energy benefits. The design of signal timing plan and
lane allocation pattern should be complementary to each other; however, existing
research works have been concentrated on signal optimization, and few of them
considered the impact of lane allocation pattern. This paper proposed an
optimization model for the integration design of signal timing plan and lane
allocation pattern at signalized intersections. A Genetic Algorithms (GA) model is
developed and validated with the Cube transportation software suites. A fully
optimized intersection design, including cycle length, phase durations, phase
sequence, permitted movements, lane allocations, and shared movements, can be
generated according to the assigned traffic flows and geometric properties at the
intersection. A set of constrains are set up to guarantee feasibility of the optimal
signal timing plan and lane allocation pattern design.
INTRODUCTION
With increasing traffic on major roads controlled by traffic signals, many
problems have become common, specifically during periods of peak demand. In
most urbanized settings worldwide, drivers have become accustomed to undesirable
congestion and excessive delay. The traffic congestion makes them trifle time away
on roads and lose the opportunity to do other things. Usually, it is difficult to widen
existing roads or build new roads in urban areas to improve the service of traffic
networks. Better utilizing the existing traffic facilities is the only reasonable answer
to most traffic congestion problems. For traffic engineers and transportation
researchers, signal timing and lane allocation are most important settings at
signalized intersections to control the operation. Efficiently operated traffic signals
and reasonably designed lane markings can reduce congestion and bring about
significant payoffs in time and energy benefits. The need for efficient traffic signal
operation and lane allocation has never been more important.
Signal optimization is considered as one of the most cost-effective methods
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to solve existing problems within signalized intersection networks and improve

traffic signal operations (Park & Yun, 2006). There have been considerable amount
of relevant research studies reported. A good number of research papers have been
published that provide procedures for both online and offline methods for offset
tuning (Kell & Fullerton, 1991; Yin et al., 2006; Gettman et al., 2007). Meanwhile,
some interesting work has been conducted for utilizing travel time or delay
information to optimize the signal settings (Massart et al. 1995; Liu et al. 2002).
Recently, some research has begun to focus on developing analytical models for
signal optimization. For example, Wey and Jayakrishnan (Wey & Jayakrishnan,
1999; Wey, 2000; Wey & Jayakrishnan, 2004) formulated the network signal
optimization problem as a mixed–integer linear problem, and the cell transmission
model (CTM) is also utilized by Lo (Lo 1999; Lo et al., 2001). There is also
extensive research on combining signal optimization problems with traffic
assignment problems, which tend to usually be limited to static models with user
equilibrium (UE) assignment (Allsop, 1974; Smith, 1981a; Smith, 1981b;
Meneguzzer, 1997). A variety of heuristic algorithms that utilized Genetic Algorithm
(GA) are also proposed (Foy et al., 1992; Hadi & Wallace, 1993; Park et al., 2001;
Park & Schneeberger, 2003).
With improvements in computation technology, a variety of computer based
signal timing optimization software became widely used, including MAXBAND
(Little et al., 1981) SYNCHRO (Husch & Albeck, 2004), TRANSYT-7F (Hale,
2005), and PASSERTM V-03 (Texas Transportation Institute, 2002). These tools
provide off-line optimization capabilities for estimation of timing parameters, such as
cycle, offsets, splits and bandwidth, based on specified performance objectives, such
as intersection delays and numbers of stops. Additionally online adaptive signal
optimization systems have also been developed and implemented over the past years,
which provide the highest level of sophistication and constitute the major thrust in
research on signalized intersection control. Most notable of these systems include
SCOOT (Hunt et al. 1982) and SCATS (Lowrie, 1982), TRAC (Lees, 1989),
UTOPIA (Mauro & DiTarano, 1990), PRODYN (Henry & Farges, 1989), OPAC
(Gartner, 1990), and RHODES (Mirchandani & Head, 2001). In 2002, the FHWA
initiated the ACS-Lite program to provide a low cost adaptive traffic signal
optimization solution framework for real time traffic conditions (Federal Highway
Administration, 2002).
Comparing with the plenty of studies on signal optimization, previous
research works on lane allocation are quite limited. All the models discussed above
assume that the lane markings at signalized intersection are fixed and thus overlook
the importance of lane allocation. The traditional approach to design lane allocation
pattern is still on a trial and error basis (Wong and Wong, 2003). A set of the initial
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1692
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lane markings is first assumed based on engineer’s judgment, and then the signal
timing plan is determined using offline signal optimization tools, such as
SYNCHRO. The lane markings are then fine-tuned according to the engineer’s
experience. The procedure is repeated several times until the performance of the
operation is acceptable. The efficiency of the final lane allocation pattern highly
depends on the experiences of the traffic engineer, which cannot guarantee to
produce an optimal set of lane markings. Moreover, experienced traffic engineers
are scare in many regions, especially in developing countries. However, the need for
designing new signalized intersections and experienced engineers is high in the
undeveloped regions and countries.
The design of signal timing plan and lane allocation pattern should be
complementary to each other. A lane allocation pattern requires an effective signal
timing plan to improve the operation service; on the other hand, a signal timing plan
cannot function properly without a reasonable lane allocation pattern. Usually, the
lane allocation pattern, to some extent, limits the choice of signal timing plans. For
example, consider the lane markings of an approach to a signalized intersection as
shown in Figure 1. The three-lane approach has one exclusive lane for through
traffic, one exclusive lane for left-turning traffic, and one shared lane for both
movements. With such lane pattern, the through traffic and left-turning traffic must
be assigned to move during the same signal phases; otherwise, the middle-lane
through traffic would be blocked by the left-turning traffic on the same lane, and
vice verse. Due to the same reason, a permitted left-turn phasing is also not suitable
for the approach. Therefore, the only possible signal timing plan for the approach is
directional separation phasing, i.e., the traffic of the approach moves with all
opposing traffic stopped. Moreover, it also determines the signal timing plan for the
opposing approach should be the directional separation phasing as well, no matter
the lane allocation pattern of the opposing approach. Traffic engineers have to give
up the chances of implementing other timing plans, such as lagging / leading left-
turn phasing, to improve the service level.

Figure 1. An Example Three-lane Approach to a Signalized Intersection.

On the other hand, inappropriate lane allocation pattern would cause
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difficulty on measuring intersection operation performance. The de facto left-turn

(right-turn) lane is a very good example. When an approach with a lane shared by
both through and left-turning (or right-turning) vehicles, it is necessary to determine
if the lane essentially acts as an exclusive through / left-turning (or right-turning)
lane. Use the lane configuration in Figure 1 as the example, the middle lane is
considered as a de facto left-turn lane when excessive delays and queues discourage
through vehicle drivers from using the lane. It is usually difficult to identify such de
facto left-turn lane until the proportion of left turns in the shared lane can be
computed (Transportation Research Board, 2000). If the de facto lane is caused by
irregular traffic flow, traffic engineers do not have much to do on fine-tuning lane
markings; however, if the traffic flow is consistent and it is not the reason lead to de
facto lane, traffic engineers need to examine the design of lane allocation patterns.
Although studies on an integrated design of signal timing and lane pattern
are rare in practice, there have been a few research works addressed. As one of the
earliest relevant attempts, Lam et al. (1997) found that the integrated design of lane
allocation pattern and signal timing plan can increase the capacity and significantly
minimize the overall delay, stop and fuel consumption at a signalized intersections.
The authors proposed a mixed-integer linear programming model to minimize the
sum of flow ratio of all phases. All possible sets of movement patterns at an
approach were enumerated based on intersection geometry. The model is solved by a
heuristic solution procedure consisting of three optimization steps on the basis of
vehicular flows, pedestrian flows and phase sequences. One of the drawbacks of the
model is that the minimization of flow ratio may not lead to an optimal solution for
other objectives, such as delay or number of stops. The separate consideration of
traffic movements and phase sequence may also produce sub-optimal results. In
2003, Wong and Wong developed a lane-based signal optimization model which
aimed to maximize intersection capacity and minimize cycle length. The model is
formulated as Binary-Mix-Integer-Linear-Programs and solved by standard branch-
and-bound routine. Similar as Lam’s model, the bi-objective model is limited to its
fixed objectives and thus lack of flexibility. Moreover, it may also not lead to global
optima.
In this paper, an optimization model for an integrated design of signal timing
plan and lane allocation pattern at signalized intersections is presented. The decision
signal variables including cycle length, phase durations, phase sequence and
permitted movements; the decision lane allocation variables including number of
exclusive lanes and shared properties for each movement. A fully optimized
intersection design can be generated according to the assigned traffic flows and
geometric properties at the intersection. The problem is formulated and solved by a
Genetic Algorithm-based model. The detailed description of the GA model is
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presented following in next section.

METHODOLOGY
The purpose of an integrated design for a signalized intersection is to
determine the best combination of signal timing plan and lane allocation pattern at
the intersection, based on traffic flow and geometry information, so as to achieve the
user-specified objective. The objective function could be any intersection
performance measure, such as overall traffic delay, overall throughput, overall fuel
consumption, level of service (LOS) of a specified approach, or a perform index that
pre-defined by users. The only requirement is that the fitness of the function should
be obtained based on the available input data. Usually, there are two sets of input
data need to be specified. One is the traffic data, i.e., the flow of all the turning
movements (left, through and right) to the intersection. The other is the geometry
data, specifically, the number of lanes at each approach. The lane pattern must be
allocated based on the lanes available.
Correspondingly, the decision variables can also be categorized into two
groups, i.e. the signal timing design and the lane pattern design. Figure 2
demonstrates the decision variables at a typical four-leg intersection. As indicated in
the figure, each approach has three movements: left-turning, through and right-
turning. The lane pattern design should specify the number of available lanes for
each movement and the shared properties between the movements For an eight-
phase dual-ring timing plan operated intersection, the signal timing design should
give the green, yellow and all-red durations for each phase, the phase sequence, and
if left-turning movements are permitted at the through phases. It can be seen that the
problem is complex due to the large number of decision variables. It is difficult to be
formulated and solved by conventional analytical models. The genetic algorithm
(GA) is thus considered in this research to solve the problem (Goldberg 1989,
Michalewicz 1996).
Encoding is the most important step in GA’s model. It is the method to
represent the potential solutions of the problem to the format that GA can process to
chromosomes. Good encoding schema improves the efficiency of the GA model. At
an isolated intersection, a potential integrated design solution is a set of values
represents a signal timing plan and a lane allocation pattern. The set of values here is
a chromosome in GA’s model. It can be treated as the combination of a signal timing
chromosome and a lane pattern chromosome. The signal timing chromosome is a set
of values for the basic signal timing parameters. Amongst, phase green, yellow, and
all-red are integer values, and phase combination and permitted left-turning data are
binary values. This study implements a similar fraction-based encoding schema that
originally proposed by Park et al. (1999). The major difference is that the model
proposed in this paper further considered the permitted property of left-turning
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1695
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movement. The integer values, i.e. cycle time, barrier splits and phases durations,
are produced by prorating available green times.

Lane Shared

Leading/Laggi Φ1 Φ2

Φ2 Φ1
Left Permitted

Split1 Split2
Ring1
Φ1 Φ2 Φ3 Φ4
Ring2
Φ5 Φ6 Φ7 Φ8
Cycle

Lane Allocation Phase Timing

Figure 2. Decision Variables at Isolated Intersection.

As shown in Figure 3, a set of binary digits (usually 4 ~ 8 digits depending
on the required precision) is decoded as decimal value (i.e., f1, f2, …, f6) within [0.0,
1.0), which represents the fraction of the available green. The fraction-based schema
formulates all the signal timing parameters into a series of binary digits, and thus
formulates the signal timing chromosome. To keep this paper concise, the fraction-
based signal timing encoding schema is not elaborated here. Readers may refer to
Park’s paper for more details.

S1 = C × f2 S2 = C – S1
Ring1
Φ1 f3 Φ2 S1 Φ Φ3 f4 Φ4 = S2 – Φ3
Ring2
Φ5 f5 Φ6 S1 Φ5 Φ7 f6 Φ8 = S2 – Φ7
C = (CMax – Cmin) × f1

Figure 3. Fraction-based Signal Timing Encoding Schema (Park et al., 1999)

A similar fraction-based encoding schema for signal timing is implemented
for lane pattern schema encoding as well. As shown in Figure 4, a length of seven
binary digits set is used to encode a typical approach at a four-leg intersection. The
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1696
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first two digits represent the shared property of the approach; digits at position 3 to 5
are decoded as a decimal representing the fraction of number of available through-
lanes among all the lanes available (if the total available lanes less than 4, then only
two digits are needed here); and the last two digits represent the fraction of number
of available left-turning lanes among the remaining lanes, and the right-turning lanes
can be calculated based the decoded results.

Approach at
Four-leg
Intersection
Shared Available Through Available Left Lanes

Approach at
Three-leg
Intersection
Shared Available Left-side

Figure 4. Binary Encoding Schema at an Approach.

For an approach at a typical three-leg intersection, or an approach at a four-
leg intersection with one movement banned (no encoding needed if two of the three
movements are banned), only four digits (or three digits if the total lanes available
are less than 4) are enough to encode the lane allocation pattern. As depicted in
Figure 4, the first digit represents if the two movements are shared; the remaining
digits represent the fraction of the number of available lanes to the left-side
movement (i.e., left-turning movement if through or right-turning is banned, and
through movement if left-turning is banned) among the total lanes available; and the
available lanes to the other movement can be calculated accordingly.

IMPLEMENTATION
The proposed GA-based integrated signal timing plan and lane allocation
pattern optimization model has been implemented into Sugar AcrGIS modeling
extensions that developed by Citilabs, Inc. Sugar software tools are extensions for
built specifically for ESRI users. Each extension is designed to support specific user
needs or organizational operations. The Sugar Network Editor is an extension that
efficiently codes and maintains the appropriate topology of roadways, public transit
services, and intersection related data (traffic signals). Sugar junction editor is part
of the Sugar Network Editor. Figure 5 shows the screenshot of the Sugar Extensions.
As can be seen, the junction data could be edited through the Sugar junction editor,
and the signalized intersection can be optimized through the optimizer button.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1697
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Optimizer Button Sugar Junction Editor

Figure 5. Screenshot of the Sugar AcrGIS Modeling Extensions.

Figure 6 shows a screenshot of a sample Sugar optimizer results window.
Once the user click the optimizer button, the window would pop-up to do junction
optimization. A list of the objectives, including minimize overall delay, maximum
overall throughput, or any other user predefined objective function, can be chosen
from the drop-down menu on the window. The GA generation size and population
size can be specified through the slider. To be note, the number of available lanes
and traffic flow data are specified in the Sugar junction editor as shown in Figure 5.
The data and the existing signal timing plan (if available) would be automatically
loaded and shown in the results window. GA model would process at the
background once users clicking the start button. The best fitness of each generation
would be shown dynamically in the “Fitness Graph”. Once the optimization
procedure finishes, the optimal lane pattern and signal timing plan would be
presented. It is easy for user to comparing the optima with the existing design. At
the right bottom, a set of the best optimization plans are also provided for users to
compare and select. Users can also load the optimization history from other nodes in
the network.
Sugar junction optimizer is the only software tool available for integration
designs of signal timing plan and lane allocation pattern at signalized junctions. One
of the most important advantages of the Sugar optimizer is its flexibility. The
chromosome size is changeable according to different users’ requirements. As
discussed above, it implements an integrated optimization model for both lane
allocation and signal timing. However, for those users only want to optimize signal
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1698
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timing plans at a fixed-lane-markings intersection, the lane pattern chromosome

could be simply cutoff. The process of the GA model is still the same. Similarly, if
users want to fix the cycle time, the corresponding part of the genes can be cutoff as
well. If users want to optimize additional variables, such as offset, it only needs to
add a set of binary digits that represents the corresponding additional decision
variables, and the GA model is still processed in the same way.

Figure 6. Screenshot of a Sample Sugar Optimizer Results Window.

CONCLUSION
This paper proposed an integrated signal timing plan and lane allocation
pattern optimization model. The GA-based model has been implemented in the
Sugar ArcGIS extensions that released by Citilabs, named as Sugar junction
optimizer. Sugar junction optimizer can generate a fully optimized junction design
based on traffic flows and junction geometric properties. The design provides
optimized signal variables including cycle length, phase durations, phase sequence,
and permitted movements, as well as optimized lane allocation variables including
lanes for each movement and shared properties between the movements. The
optimizer provides high flexibility to accommodate different user needs. For
example, users could choose to only optimize signal timings and ignore the lane
markings. The objective could be delay, LOS, stops, throughput or any other user-
defined measures.
Future research includes comparing the results from Sugar junction
optimizer and other commercial transportation software, such as Synachro and
Transyt-7F. More validation works need to be done with more networks in reality.
Moreover, the developers also have plans to enhance the functionalities of the Sugar
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1699
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junction optimizer, including the optimization of junction control type and the
optimization of signal coordination parameters along the network.

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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1702
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Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Segmentation Model

Huisheng WU1, 2, Zhaoli LIU1, Shuwen ZHANG1

1
Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology Research, CAS,
Changchun, China, 130012; PH (86) 431-85542229; FAX (86) 431-85542298;
email: w_huisheng@163.com
2
Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, 100039

ABSTRACT
Dynamic segmentation is an important technique in dynamic analysis,
displaying linear features in Geographic Information Systems for transportation
(GIS-T) and Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). In this paper, the authors present
brief surveys of work in dynamic segmentation development, then present a spatial-
temporal dynamic segmentation model. In the conceptual model, components of a
dynamic segmentation system merge into a temporal factor. The temporal
information in the attribute tables is stored as a field, and the temporal maintenance
of physical arcs is reconciled by temporal GIS techniques. In the logic model, the
relationships between objects in the spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation model
are provided, and the necessary attribute fields and operations are defined according
to the class diagram in Unified Modeling Language (UML). The topologic relations
related to the spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation model also are introduced
based on the one-dimensional expression of the linear reference system.
INTRODUCTION
Geographic Information Systems for transportation (GIS-T) are receiving
increased attention in recent years and have been a hotspot in GIS application
research along with the development of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). As a
type of relational data models, the arc-node model has many deficiencies in
depicting the linear features of GIS-T by the static segmentation technique (Qiao
and Wu, 1995; Shen and Lu, 2002). Revealing the relation between the reality traffic
entity and the logic traffic entity is usually one to many, and Fletcher (1987) put
forward the concept of dynamic segmentation. The nature of dynamic segmentation
is an abstract method that is built on the arc-node structure, that is, a mapping
relationship between dynamic segments and the arc-node model (Zhang, 2004). In
contrast to the relational data model, there are some other data models that are
object-oriented (OO) models in the transportation arena, such as the generic model
for linear referencing systems (LRS) and the GIS-T enterprise data model (Dueker
and Butler, 1997). However, studies on using dynamic segmentation in some GIS
software with the entity-oriented data model are few, and, based on the dynamic
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segmentation data structure in Arc/Info, the theory of implementing dynamic

segmentation in MapInfo was discussed and verified through an example (Zhao et
al., 2005). The dynamic segmentation technique has been applied extensively in the
collection, management, and simulation of linear features, especially in the data
processing model in the road network of GIS-T (Shen and Lu, 2002; Li et al., 2006;
Wang et al., 2008). All of the above research on dynamic segmentation is based only
on space meaning, but is scarcely considered a temporal factor. Nevertheless, many
data have temporal characteristics in GIS-T, so the classical dynamic segmentation
with implied assumptions is feature data and network data sharing common
temporal existence has difficulty in effectively describing and operating road
segmentation and traffic data with spatial-temporal characteristics. Although there
have been many studies on temporal databases, spatial-temporal data models, and
LRS, spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation, a synergy of the spatial-temporal data
model and LRS, has not been studied extensively (Li et al., 2004). In a study in the
field, a spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation method was built by parametric
polymorphism in an object-oriented database with Object Database Management
Group (ODMG) standards, and the model and query language were implemented
using an object-oriented scripting language in a GIS environment (Huang, 2003); the
disadvantage of the model is relying on parametric polymorphism excessively. Guo
and Kurt (2004) systematically studied a spatial-temporal model and segments,
joining operations in a relational database. The spatial-temporal events were divided
into point term, point instant, linear term, and linear instant for using dynamic
segmentation (Guo and Chen, 2008). Unfortunately, this model is not suitable for
modeling continuous features and cannot take advantage of the object-oriented
method in the object-relation database that has been widely investigated at present.
So Shen (2005) designed a spatial-temporal model supporting an object-relation data
model according to the characteristics of an object-relation database, whose basic
foundation was that the route segment attributes stored as events were also
segmented in a temporal area, but the model did not connect the arcs, nodes, and
events and did not reconcile the temporal existence between features and between
feature and networks.
In addition to the above studies, other application research also relates to
spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation. Spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation
was built under the three-dimensional GIS circumstance by adding a temporal
dimension to a traditional coordinate system of two-dimensional GIS during the
research on interactions of human activities (Yu, 2006). The challenge is, however, it
is too complicated to model under the conditions of three-dimensions and expressing
network and other traffic features appropriately in GIS-T. An idea of temporal
dynamic segmentation was proposed by dividing time periods into segments and
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intervals, as with roads (Liu et al., 2006), but it lacked model support.
This paper seeks to provide a solution to deal with the temporal information of
classic dynamic segmentation. After fully considering the characteristics of traffic
features, temporal GIS, and a spatial-temporal database technique, we built a spatial-
temporal dynamic segmentation model with UML on the basis of existing research.
In addition to the model, this paper gives a brief explanation of topological
relationships.
SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DYNAMIC SEGMENTATION MODEL
In an object-relation database such as Oracle, with a spatial-temporal dynamic
segmentation technique, we can dynamically calculate the spatial position of
attributes and then operate the display or analysis based on linear referencing
systems. In this process, there are three kinds of temporal existence consistencies,
including consistencies between topological relationships of network features such
as arcs and nodes, between same-class attribute information, and between spatial
topological and attribute data. Base on this analysis, we put forth a spatial-temporal
model by extending the dynamic segmentation model that consists of routes,
segmentation, and events in Arc/Info.
Conceptual model. A one-dimensional reference point-distance spatial
representation system, as a result of degradation of a two-dimensional Cartesian
coordinates system using a linear referencing model in GIS-T, combines with
temporal information, which can be considered another orthogonal dimension, to
compose a new two-dimensional spatial-temporal system. The result of spatial-
temporal dynamic segmentation can be viewed in Figure 1, which shows several
segments of a route displayed with different colors according to a certain attribute
using the spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation technique. From Figure 1, we can
see that the attributes changed at T2 time relative to T1 time, and some spatial
topological relations changed at T3 time, and not only topological relations but also
attributes changed at T4 time. The temporal consistency of spatial features can be
implemented by a spatial-temporal data model of temporal GIS techniques such as
based state with amendments model and object-oriented spatial-temporal data model
(She et al., 2005), and the temporal conformance of attributes can be reached by
adding a time field to the attribute table. The conceptual model of the spatial-
temporal dynamic segmentation model is described in Figure 2. The spatial-temporal
dynamic segmentation system dynamically relates temporal events to realistic arcs
acceding to a measuring system and displays a route with logic segments.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1705
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Figure 1. Result of the spatial- Figure 2. Conceptual model of spatial-

temporal dynamic segmentation. temporal dynamic segmentation mode.

Logic model. The logic model, as a mid model between the conceptual model
and the physical model, mainly provides logic expressions for organizing data in the
physical model, based on the data entities and the relations defined in the conceptual
model (Jang et al., 2003). According to the object-relational database characteristics
that directly support defining and storing spatial features, we designed the logic
model of spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation using UML, as can be seen in
Figure 3.

Figure 3. Logic model of spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation mode.

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The temporal continual event in the conceptual model, which can be expressed
as a polygon in a Cartesian coordinates system while a line in LRS, is described as
the same as the temporal linear event in the logic model. In addition, some necessary
attribute fields and operations are defined in some data sets.
Topological relations. Identifying topological relations is very important in
some analyses such as query functions and overlays, in addition to visually
describing relative location relations. In this paper, the topological relations in a
spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation model are different from those in GIS spatial
database, due to the main functions of the dynamic segmentation technique that
displays and analyzes multiple attributes of spatial features so they emphatically
express the relations of logic attribute segments while the spatial topology of physic
segments can be dealt with in LRS. What is more, as a result, temporal information
is stored in attribute tables in the form of fields instead of one dimension, so
topological relations become intuitive and less complicated, since they only depict
the spatial relations between two or some more one-dimensional logic segments.
Figure 4 shows the topological relations of the spatial-temporal dynamic
segmentation model.

Figure 4. Topological relations of two logical one-dimensional segments.

CONCLUSIONS
In GIS-T, linear referencing systems make the data expressions more suitable to
the characteristics of real transportation elements, and the dynamic segmentation
technique thoroughly solves the display and analysis of multiple attributes based on
linear referencing systems. This paper begins with summarizing research advances
and pointing out the issues that exist on dynamic segmentation, and then expounds
that temporal information is necessary in GIS-T. In the existing research results, the
authors designed a spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation model including the
conceptual model, the logic model, and the topological relations. In the conceptual
model, components of a dynamic segmentation system merge into temporal factors,
and the logic segments that are attribute segments combine the physical arcs by a
spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation system. The authors make the temporal
expressions of spatial entities and attributes separately; in other words, we store the
temporal information in the attribute tables as a field and reconcile the temporal
maintenance of physical arcs by temporal GIS techniques. The conceptual model
can be efficiently used in a navigable geo-spatial database of GIS-T, because the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1707
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temporal change frequency of the physical segments is less while the attributes
usually change and the relational storage form of attributes in the database is a
mature technology. In the logic model, the relationships between objects in the
spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation model are provided, and the necessary
attribute fields and operations are defined according to the class diagram in UML.
The authors also introduce the topologic relationships related to the spatial-temporal
dynamic segmentation model based on the one-dimensional expression of the linear
reference system.
Compared with the studies conducted by Huang (2003) and Guo and Kurt
(2004), the designed model, which is more suitable for the current database model
(object-relation database), overcomes the restrictions of the simple relation data
mode and the simple object-oriented data model. We merge the temporal
information into the classic dynamic segmentation model and address the shortages
brought by dividing the spatial-temporal reference into spatial reference and
temporal reference (Shen, 2005) and integrate the multiple attributes into physical
entities more intuitively and definitely.
Limitations of the proposed spatial-temporal dynamic segmentation model are
perhaps the lack of physical model and operating segments, but the physical model
is similar to the logic model and the main operations have been defined. Of course,
the validation of the designed model still needs further investigation.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was funded by the National High-Tech Research and
Development Program of China (863 Program) (Grant No. 2007AA12Z242), and
the support is gratefully acknowledged. The authors would also like to thank the
reviewers for their insightful comments which have substantially improved this
paper.

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Huang, B. (2003). “An object model with parametric polymorphism for dynamic
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Wang, C. Q., Qin, Q. Q., and Wang, W. (2008). “Application of linear reference
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41-43.
Yu, H. B. (2006). “Spatio-temporal GIS design for exploring interactions of human
activities.” Cartography and Geographic Information Science 33(1), 3-19.
Zhang, Q. N. (2004). “Line generalization based on Dynamic Segmentation.” Acta
Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 43(2), 104-107.
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175-178.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1709
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Super-Network Based Equilibrium Model and Algorithm for Multi-mode

Urban Transport System

Bingfeng SI1, Ming ZHONG2, and Ziyou GAO1

1 School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, P.O.

Box 100044; PH (8610) 51687143; FAX (8610) 51688421911; email:
bfsi@bjtu.edu.cn
2 Department of Civil Engineering, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, N.B.,
Canada E3B 5A3; Phone: (1506) 4526324; FAX (1506) 4533568;
Email: ming@unb.ca

ABSTRACT
In this paper, the structure of a multi-mode urban transport system is fully
analyzed and then a super-network model is proposed to describe such a system.
Based on analysis of travelers’ combined choices, the generalized travel cost
functions and the link impedance functions are formulated, where the interferences
between different modes on the same road segments are taken into account. On the
basis of these, a variational inequality model is proposed to describe equilibrium
assignment for multi-mode urban transport system. The corresponding solution
algorithm is also presented. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the
proposed model and algorithm.
INTRODUCTION
With rapid urbanization and motorization, travel demand and travel distance
increase considerably in most cities of China. The transportation planning theories
and methods, which were primarily developed for a pure motorized-traffic transport
system and used extensively in developed countries, are deemed inadequate for the
mixed-traffic transport systems found in China. Generally, a mixed-traffic urban
transport system consists of several modes such as automobile, transit, and bicycle,
and it is much more complicated than the purely motorized systems in developed
countries. Therefore, an assignment model for simulating/predicting travelers’
combined choice behaviors including mode and route choices within a mixed-traffic
network is pressingly needed and deserves special attention.
In past decades, various assignment models and algorithms (Beckmann et
al., 1956; Smith,1979; Dafermos,1980; Dial, 1996; Yang and Huang, 2004) have
been proposed for a purely motorized-traffic urban transport system based on the
Wardrop principle (Wardrop, 1952), which implies that they paid primary attention
to the automobile driver’s route choice, while the traveler’s mode choice was largely
neglected. The reason for such an outcome is the insignificance of non-motorized
traffic in developed countries. Assignment models for a mixed-traffic urban transport
system (Florian and Nguyen, 1978; Fisk and Boyce, 1983; Lam and Huang, 1992;
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Abrahamsson and Lundqvist, 1999; Nagurney and Dong, 2002) were proposed;
however, the topology structure of such a system and the interferences between
different transport modes were not considered in these previous research works. Si et
al. (2008) moved a step forward by developing a combined model for a mixed-traffic
transport system, in which the interference between motorized and non-motorized
traffic was considered. However, the structure of such a system as well as the
generalized travel cost functions of different modes was not well addressed.
In this paper, the structural characteristic of a mixed-traffic urban transport
system is fully analyzed, and the system is then decomposed into a set of
sub-networks. Based on super-graph theory, a super-network model is proposed to
describe such a system. The generalized travel cost functions and the link impedance
functions for different transport modes within such a system are formulated, and the
interferences between different modes are considered. The traveler’s combined
choice behaviors including mode and route choice are then analyzed in such a
super-network. On the basis of these, an equilibrium assignment model based on
variational inequality (VI) is proposed. The solution algorithm is also presented.
Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed model and
algorithm.
SUPER-NETWORK MODEL FOR MIXED-TRAFFIC TRANSPORT
SYSTERM
In this paper, a mixed-traffic transport system is expressed as G= (N, A, K),
where N is the set of nodes, A is the set of road segments, and K is the set of
transport modes. There are K sub-networks in a mixed-traffic transport system, and
each sub-network, represented by Gk= (Nk, Ak, k), where k∈K, corresponds to the
sub-network of transport mode k.
The following example is used to illustrate the structural characteristic of a
mixed-traffic transport system. The urban road traffic network is shown in Figure 1,
which consists of 1 O-D pair (i, j), 9 nodes, 12 road sections, 2 motor modes,
(automobile and transit) and 1 non-motor mode (bicycle). Figure 2 shows the
structures of sub-networks of different transport modes by assuming that automobile
and transit can only access a part of all 12 links.

Figure 1. An example of mixed-traffic transport network.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1711
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Figure 2. The sub-networks of different transport modes.

In such a mixed-traffic transport system, travelers from origin i to destination
j should make two successive decisions. The first is the mode choice, and the second
is the route choice in the corresponding sub-network once the transport mode is
selected. At the first stage, the mixed-traffic transport system can be described with
simplification as the following three simplified mode choices, one for each available
modes between the O-D pair (i, j):

Figure 3. Level 1: Mode choices of the mixed-traffic network.

It can be found here that possible routes between the O-D pair (i, j) of
different modes in Figure 3 can be described by the sub-networks of the
corresponding modes shown in Figure 2.
According to the structural characteristics of a mixed-traffic transport system,
a super-network model is proposed to describe such a system in this paper. In the
proposed super-network model, each node is described by two variables (n, k), where
n ∈ N denotes the physical nodes of the road network and k ∈ K denotes the
transport mode that can run through node n. Similarly, the link in such a
super-network is described by two variables (a, k), where a ∈ A denotes the physical
road links and k∈K denotes the transport mode that can access road link a. The set of
links connecting the different nodes can be divided into two categories. One category
includes loading/unloading links, and one end of such a link is origin or destination.
The other category consists of in-vehicle links that are the accessible links for each
mode in each sub-network. By constructing such a super-network, the mixed-traffic
transport system can be simplified as a simple “road” network. It then can be used
directly as a generalized network for traffic assignment or network analysis purposes.
Based on the discussions above, the mixed-traffic transport system in Figure 1 can
be represented as the following super-network in Figure 4.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1712
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Figure 4. The proposed super-network for the mixed transport system.

CONSERVATION CONDITIONS IN MIXED-TRAFFIC SYSTEM
First, without losing any generality, it is assumed that the O-D demands in a
mixed-traffic transport system are given and fixed. For a given O-D pair, the sum of
travel demands of different modes equals to the total travel demand, that is,
∑qk
k
w = q w , ∀w (1)

where q w is the total demand between O-D pair w; and q wk is the demand that

selects the transport mode k between O-D pair w.

Second, for a given O-D pair and mode, the sum of travel demands on
different routes in the corresponding sub-network equals to the travel demand of the
corresponding mode, that is,
∑h
r
k
w,r = q wk , ∀w, k (2)

where hwk ,r is the travel demand on the route r in sub-network k (for mode k)

between O-D pair w.

In addition, in the sub-network k between O-D pair w, the travel demand on
road link a can be represented by the travel demand on the routes, that is,
x ak = ∑ ∑h k
w, r δ ak,,rw , ∀a, k (3)
w r

where x ak is the travel demand of mode k on the road link a; and δ ak,,rw is the route

and road incidence variable in the sub-network k between O-D pair w, if the mode k
can access the road link a and it is on the route r that connects the O-D pair w; then
δ ak,,rw =1, otherwise, δ ak,,rw =0.
In general, traffic flow is defined as the number of all vehicles passing by a
road section during a time unit (minute or hour) for the purely motorized system. In
the context of mixed-traffic system, the flow of each mode can be converted from
the corresponding travel demand, that is (Si et al., 2008)
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Uk
v ak = x ak ⋅ ( ) , ∀k, a (4)
Ak

where v ak is the flow of mode k on road link a; U k is passenger car unit (pcu)

conversion coefficient of mode k; and Ak is occupancy rate of mode k, which

indicates the average number of travelers within each vehicle of mode k.

TRAVEL-DEMAND BASED GENERALIZED TRAVEL COST FUNCTION
In this paper, the level of congestion in each sub-network, travel time, and
fare of transport mode are all assumed included in the generalized travel cost. The
generalized travel cost function can then be written as the following:
g wk (q w ) = α k f wk (q w ) + β kτ wk + μ wk , ∀w, k (5)

where g wk is the generalized travel cost for the mode k between O-D pair w; q w is

the vector of travel demands between O-D pair w, that is, q w = [q 1w ,L, q wk ] ;

f wk (q w ) represents the level of congestion in sub-network k between O-D pair w,

which is a function of the travel demand between O-D pair w; τ wk denotes the fare

of transport mode k between O-D pair w; μ wk denotes the equilibrium travel time of

mode k between O-D pair w; α k and β k are parameters concerned with mode k.

Let gˆ wk (q w ) represent the travel cost excluding travel time of mode k

between O-D pair w. That is,

gˆ wk (q w ) = α k f wk (q w ) + β kτ wk , ∀w, k (6)

Then, the function (5) can be rewritten as

g wk (q w ) = gˆ wk (q w ) + μ wk , ∀w, k (7)

The travel time on route r in sub-network k between the O-D pair w, denoted by t wk ,r ,

can be expressed as
t wk , r = ∑ takδ ak,,rw , ∀w, k , r (8)
a

where t ak denotes the travel time of transport mode k on road link a, which can be
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1714
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computed by the link impedance function.

In a mixed-traffic transport system, the interferences among different
transport modes will be present if there is no physical barrier between different
modes. Therefore, the link impedance function of a mixed-traffic transport system
should be different from that for a single-mode transport system, which can be
formulated as:
t ak = c(t ak ( 0) , v a , C a ) , ∀k, a (9)

where t ak ( 0 ) is the free-flow travel time of mode k on road link a; C a is the

practical capacity of road link a; v a is the vector of the flow of different modes on

road link a, that is v a = [v1a ,L, v ak ] . In general, t ak ( 0 ) and C a can be assumed as

the constants and tak can be treated as a function of v a . According to Equation (4),

the flows of different modes on road link a can be expressed by the travel demand of
corresponding modes. Consequently, Function (9) can be rewritten as follows:
t ak = cˆ ak (x a ) , ∀k, a (10)

where x a is the vector of the travel demand on road link a, that is

x a = [ x1a ,L, xak ] .

SUPER-NETWORK BASED EQUILIBRIUM ASSIGNMENT MODEL

In this paper, the assignment model for a mixed-traffic transport system is
formulated based on the user equilibrium (UE) principle. In order to be consistent
with choice behavior theories, the user equilibrium defined in a mixed-traffic
transport system is divided into the following two categories. One category
equilibrium exists among different transport modes, namely, the generalized travel
costs of the selected transport modes is the same and the minimum, while the
generalized travel costs of unselected transport modes must be not less than the
minimum travel cost between a given O-D pair. The other category is the traditional
equilibrium among different routes in each sub-network between the O-D pair.
Therefore, the user equilibrium in a mixed-traffic transport system can be described
as:
⎧= η qk > 0
g wk ⎨ w , if wk , ∀w, k (11)
⎩≥ η w qw = 0
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1715
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⎧= μ wk hwk ,r > 0
t k
⎨ , if k , ∀w, k , r (12)
≥ μ =
w, r k
⎩ w h w,r 0

where η w is the generalized travel cost between O-D pair w at equilibrium.

Note that the generalized travel cost functions and the link impedance
functions proposed in this paper are all asymmetric, which means that the
generalized travel costs or the link travel times of each mode are influenced by not
only its own flow but also those from the other competing modes. In this paper, the
following VI model is proposed to describe the super-network-based assignment
problem for mixed-traffic transport system: to find (~ ~ ) ∈ Ω such that
x ,q a w

∑ ∑ gˆ
w k
k
w
~ ) × (q k − q~ k ) +
(q w w w ∑∑ fˆak (~x a ) × ( xak − ~xak ) ≥ 0 (13a)
a k

where
Ω = {(xa , qw ) | ∑qwk = qw , ∑hwk,r = qwk , xak = ∑ ∑h k
δ , qwk ≥ 0, hwk,r ≥ 0, ∀w, r, a, k} (13b)
k ,w
w,r a,r
k r w r

SOLUTION ALGORITHM
“Diagonalization” is the one of the most commonly used approaches for
solving a VI model because of its easy implementation. The “diagonalization”
algorithm that provides the solution for the assignment problem (13) is based on
solving a series of mathematical programs. At each iteration, the vector functions
gˆ wk (q w ) and fˆak (x a ) are “diagonalized” at the current solution, yielding a
symmetric assignment problem. Based on the same approach, the following
mathematical program is formulated:
qwk xak
min Z(xa,qw)= ∑ ∑∫ gˆwk {q1w(n−1) ,L, qwk−(n1−1) ,ω}dω+ ∑ ∑∫ fˆak (x1a(n−1) , xa2(n−1) ,L, ω)dω (14a)
0 0
w k a k

s.t (x a , q w ) ∈ Ω (14b)

In this paper, the method of successive average (MSA) is used to solve the
“diagonalized” minimization problem (14a)-(14b). The procedures of MSA are
described as the following:
Step 0: Initialization. Set q wk =0 and xak =0 for any w, k and a. Compute

gˆ wk ( 0) and t ak( 0 ) . Find the shortest route in the sub-network k between O-D pair w

and get the corresponding minimum travel time μ wk ( 0) . Then, calculate the generalized

travel cost of mode k between O-D pair w. Execute the travel demand assignment
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1716
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between O-D pair w according to the following rules:

⎧
q wk (1) = ⎨q w , if g w( 0 ) = min
k
{g wl ( 0 ) }
l∈K (15)
⎩0, otherwise

Subsequently, perform all-or-nothing assignment to load q wk (1) in sub-network k and

obtain the travel demand of mode k on road link a, x ak(1) . Set iteration n=1.

Step 1: Compute gˆ wk ( n ) and t ak( n ) based on q wk ( n ) and xak( n ) , respectively.

Step 2: Find the shortest route in the sub-network k between O-D pair w and
get the corresponding minimum travel time μ wk ( n ) . Then, calculate the generalized

travel cost of mode k between O-D pair w and execute the travel demand assignment
between O-D pair w according to the following rules:

u wk ( n ) = ⎧⎨qw , if g w( n) = min
k
{g wl ( n ) } (16)
l∈K

⎩0, otherwise

Perform all-or-nothing assignment to load u wk ( n ) in sub-network k and obtain y ak( n ) .

Step 3: Compute
1
q wk ( n +1) = q wk ( n ) + (u wk ( n ) − q wk ( n ) ) , ∀w, k (17a)
n
1
x ak( n +1) = x ak( n ) + ( y ak( n ) − x ak( n ) ) , ∀k , a (17b)
n
Step 4: Convergence test. If a convergence criterion is met, stop. The current
solutions, { qwk ( n +1) } and { xak( n +1) }, are the sets of equilibrium travel demands for the

transport modes and the sub-networks considered respectively; otherwise, set n=n+1
and go to step 1.
NUMERICAL EXAMPLE
A simple numerical example is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the
model and the solution algorithm proposed in this paper. The numerical example is
based on a simple mixed-traffic transport system, as shown in Figure 1. The
corresponding super-network is given in Figure 4.
In this paper, the generalized travel cost functions use the logarithmic form as the
following:
g wk (q w ) = α k ln(q wk + 1) + β kτ wk + μ wk , ∀w, k (18)

The following link impedance function is proposed for the mixed-traffic

transport system (Si et al., 2008):
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1717
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U m ⋅ x am λ
t =t
k
a
k ( 0)
a ∏
m
[1 + γ (
Am ⋅ C am
) ] , ∀k, a (19)

Here, we assume that γ = 0.15, λ = 4, α k = 0.5 and β k = 0.2, respectively. The

first two parameters are borrowed from the original BPR function and the last two
are determined based on typical value of time (VOT) in China. These parameters are
calibrated so that the calculated VOTs are close to the observed values. For brevity,
the cases of q w =10,000 passengers per hour (P.h-1) and q w =20,000 (P.h-1) are used
to represent the mixed-traffic transport system without congestion and with
congestion, respectively.
The relevant parameters of 12 road links in Figure 1 are given in Table 1,
while the pcu conversion coefficient, the average occupancy rate, and potential fee,
which are pertinent to different modes, are listed in Table 2.
Table 1. Relevant Data of Different Roads.
-1 -1 -1
Road ta1( 0) /(h) ta2 ( 0 ) /(h) ta3( 0) /(h) Ca1 /(P.h ) Ca2 /(P.h ) Ca3 /(P.h )

(1,2) 0.111 0.178 0.261 1000 1000 600

(2,3) 0.128 — 0.278 700 — 400
(1,4) 0.100 0.167 0.250 1500 1500 800
(2,5) 0.106 0.172 0.256 700 700 400
(3,6) 0.089 — 0.239 700 — 400
(4,5) — 0.144 0.228 — 1000 600
(5,6) — — 0.244 — — 600
(4,7) 0.133 0.200 0.283 900 900 500
(5,8) 0.111 0.178 0.261 700 700 400
(6,9) 0.144 — 0.294 700 — 400
(7,8) 0.094 0.161 0.244 900 900 500
(8,9) 0.100 0.167 0.250 900 900 500

Table 2. Relevant Data of Different Modes.

Mode Uk Ak τ wk

Car 1 4 7
Bus 1.5 20 3
Bike 0.25 1 0

The convergence of the MSA algorithm for the “diagonalization” model

(14a)-(14b) is first analyzed by studying the variations of automobile travel demand
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1718
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from i to j against iterations. Figures 5 shows the two variations against the iteration
number for different O-D demands. It is obvious that automobile travel demand
reaches convergence after 8 iterations, as the solutions tend to be very stable after
that. In addition, it can be seen that the solution algorithm has good convergence,
especially for the scenario without congestion (the lower demand case).
8000

7000
q=10000P/h
6000 q=20000P/h
car travel demand

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 iterations

Figure 5. Automobile O-D demand variations against iterations.

Table 3 shows equilibrium demands and the corresponding travel times of
different modes on each of the 12 road links when q w =10000/p.h-1.
Table 3. Equilibrium Demands and Travel Times on Each Road Link When
qw=10000/P.h-1
-1 -1 -1
roads x 1a /(P.h ) x a2 /(P.h ) x a3 (/P.h ) t a1 /(h) t a2 /(h) t a3 /(h)

(1,2) 392.18 1.40 1338.37 0.1122 0.1795 0.2649

(2,3) 0.38 — 253.85 0.1278 — 0.2778
(1,4) 991.82 4211.17 3065.06 0.1087 0.1812 0.2821
(2,5) 391.80 1.40 1084.52 0.1078 0.1759 0.2637
(3,6) 0.38 — 253.85 0.0889 — 0.2389
(4,5) — 4203.80 2056.99 — 0.1525 0.2465
(5,6) — — 1647.20 — — 0.2526
(4,7) 991.82 7.37 1008.06 0.1343 0.2015 0.2862
(5,8) 391.80 4205.20 1494.32 0.1217 0.1948 0.2944
(6,9) 0.38 — 1901.05 0.1732 — 0.3825
(7,8) 991.82 7.37 1008.06 0.0951 0.1623 0.2469
(8,9) 1383.62 4212.57 2502.38 0.1299 0.2166 0.3519

According to the results in Table 3, the feasible flows and corresponding travel
costs on all feasible routes in each sub-network are obtained and shown in Table 4.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1719
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Table 4. Equilibrium Flows and Travel Costs on Feasible Routes in Different

Sub-Networks.
Routes Flows Travel Mode split General travel
Modes -1
(node serial) /P.h times/h /P.h-1 cost/h
1-2-3-6-9 0.38 0.4721
Automobile 1-2-5-8-9 391.80 0.4706 1384.00 5.3829
1-4-7-8-9 991.82 0.4695
1-2-5-8-9 1.40 0.7518
Transit 1-4-5-8-9 4203.80 0.7495 4212.57 5.3824
1-4-7-8-9 7.37 0.7506
1-2-3-6-9 253.85 1.1641
1-2-5-6-9 1000.00 1.1637
1-2-5-8-9 1000.00 1.1649
Bicycle 4403.43 5.3818
1-4-5-6-9 647.20 1.1637
1-4-5-8-9 494.32 1.1649
1-4-7-8-9 1008.06 1.1671
It can be seen that the travel times on such routes selected by travelers are
basically the same when the travel demand in each sub-network reaches equilibrium.
In addition, the general travel costs of different modes are also the same at
equilibrium. The results above are consistent with conditions (11) and (12), which
indicate that the algorithm proposed in this paper is completely effective.
CONCLUSIONS
At present, many traffic assignment models and algorithms have been
proposed for transport systems dominated by motorized-traffic based on the Wardrop
principle, while those for mixed-traffic transport systems found in most developing
countries are rare. In this paper, based on a proposed super-network, the generalized
travel cost functions and the link impedance functions for different transport modes
are formulated, while the interferences between different modes are considered. The
assignment problem for a mixed-traffic urban system is approached by solving
traveler’s combined choices of mode and route. On the basis of these, a VI model is
proposed to solve the equilibrium assignment problem of a mixed-traffic transport
system. The solution algorithm is presented. The results of the numerical example
indicate that the algorithm proposed in this paper is completely effective.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The work described in this paper is mainly supported by the grants from the
National Basic Research Program of China (Project No. 2006CB705500) and the
National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. 70631001). It is also
partially funded by a Discovery Grant (Application No. 342485-07) from the Natural
Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), Canada.

REFERENCES
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1720
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Abrahamsson, T., and Lundqvist, L. (1999). “Formulation and estimation of

combined network equilibrium models with applications to Stockholm.”
Transportation Science 33, 80-100.
Beckmann, A. B., McGuire, C. B., and Winsten, C. B. (1956). Studies in the
Economics of Transportation. Yale University Press, New Haven,
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Dafermos, S. C. (1980). “Traffic equilibrium and variational inequalities.”
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Dial, R. B. (1996). “Bicriterion traffic assignment: Basic theory and elementary
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Fisk, C. S., and Boyce, D. E. (1983). “Alternative variationa1 inequality
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Nagurney, A., and Dong, J. A. (2002). “Multiclass, multicriteria traffic network
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Si, B. F., Zhong, M., and Gao, Z. Y. (2008). “A link resistance function of urban
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Si, B. F., Zhong, M., and Gao, Z. Y. (2008). “A discussion of optimization model for
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Si, B. F., Long, J. C., and Gao, Z. Y. (2008). “Optimization model and algorithm for
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ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1721
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Impacts of a High-Speed Passenger Railway on a Regional Transport System

Ying LI1, Shanhua WU1, Zhongzhen YANG1

1
College of Transportation Management, Dalian Maritime University, P.O. Box 116026,
Dalian, Liaoning; PH (0411) 8472-6756; FAX (0411) 8472-6756; email:
yangzhongzhen@263.net

ABSTRACT
In order to maximize the function of a high-speed railway (HSR), this paper aims to
clarify its effects on the modal split within its influence scope and the factors affecting its
modal split. The authors in this paper take HSR line between Harbin and Dalian, along with
Dalian City, as the research objects. This paper analyzes the potential variation of the
accessibility from the main sites in Dalian to other cities in Northeast China on the premise
of the opening of the Harbin-Dalian HSR line. It also studies the likely modal split of the
different transportation modes. Based on the results, the construction schemes of the
transfer facilities along HSR can be formulated. Finally, according to cost-benefit theory,
the paper presents a comprehensive evaluation method for optional transfer facilities, which
provides a theoretical basis for the policy-makers.
INTRODUCTION
Experience has demonstrated that HSR plays an important role in improving cities’
economy and the regional spatial structure. Furthermore, it contributes to shortening the
space-time distance between cities. In addition to those merits, it also sets higher
requirements for the urban transport system. Since its influence scope is a narrow strip,
HSR should have good linking relationships with the urban transport system in order to
maximize its function. Therefore, a variety of transfer facilities need to be equipped. Under
such circumstances, the paper analyzes the potential changes of accessibility from the major
regions in Dalian to other cities in Northeast China in the context of opening the Harbin-
Dalian HSR line. It also studies the likely modal split of each mode, presents some optional
construction schemes for transfer facilities around HSR, and evaluate the effects of the
facilities in the end.
IMPACTS OF HSR LINE ON DALIAN ACCESSIBILITY
The opening of the Harbin-Dalian HSR line can help achieve the separation of
passenger and freight transportation in the corridor; it then will be able to release the
saturated capacity of the existing Harbin-Dalian railway line and successfully solve the
problem of capacity shortage. Furthermore, it has great significance for promoting regional
economic development and ensuring the smooth implementation of the revitalization
strategy for the Northeast Old Industrial Base. The opening of this HSR line will greatly
improve accessibility from Dalian to other cities in Northeast China. Such improvement in
accessibility can be manifested in the comparison of the travel time before and after the
opening.
Wafangdian, Pulandian, Nanguanling, and the urban areas were selected as the main
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1722
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sites of Dalian City, while Shenyang, Changchun, and Harbin were taken as the major cities
of Northeast China. The specific locations of these cities are shown in Figure 1. By
comparing the travel time between the two groups of cities by four transportation modes
(i.e., highway, railway, air, and HSR), the variation of the accessibility can be analyzed.
Assume that the travel speeds of highway and HSR are 90 km/h and 260 km/h, respectively,
and that the travel times by railway and air are calculated by the average time of expresses
and the flight schedule of airlines. It should be noted that the total travel time includes
access and egress time at both ends. Figure 2 presents the travel time between these cities.

Figure 1. Location of the research cities.

Figure 2 indicates that the travel time of HSR is significantly reduced in comparison to
that of highway and railway, and that the travel time of HSR is close to that of air.
Additionally, for travel starting or ending in Wafangdian, Pulandian, and Nanguanling, HSR
travel time even shorter than that of air. Therefore, with the opening of the Harbin-Dalian
HSR line, inter-city travel will become even faster and more convenient.

900 travel time by highway (min) travel time by railway (min) 900 travel time by highway (min) travel time by railway (min)
travel time by air (min) travel time by HSR (min) travel time by air (min) travel time by HSR (min)
800 800
700 700
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
Wafangdian-Shenyang Wafangdian-Changchun Wafangdian-Harbin Pulandian-Shenyang Pulandian-Changchun Pulandian-Harbin
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1723
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900 travel time by highway (min) travel time by railway (min) 900 travel time by highway (min) travel time by railway (min)
travel time by air (min) travel time by HSR (min) travel time by air (min) travel time by HSR (min)
800 800
700 700
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
Nanguanling-Shenyang Nanguanling-Changchun Nanguanling-Harbin urban area to Shenyang urban area to Changchun urban area to Harbin

Figure 2. Travel time from Dalian to other cities by different modes.

Consequently, this emerging mode will necessarily grab the market share of air and
highway because of its superior accessibility. It is necessary to study the market share that
each transport authority may take after the Harbin-Dalian HSR line opens and forecast the
modal split for each mode.
MODAL SPLIT IN THE HARBIN-DALIAN PASSENGER CORRIDOR
This section analyzes the attributes of the various passenger modes including travel
time, travel expenses, and vehicle service intervals in the Harbin-Dalian passenger corridor.
A Logit model using data obtained by an SP (State Preference) survey was developed to
study the relationship among HSR, highway, and air service, to predict the modal split of
the three transportation modes. It should be pointed out that freight rail service is not taken
into account, largely because it may be too small and too low-speed to compete in this
corridor, and one of the purposes of this HSR line is to separate passenger and freight
transportation.
Utility function model. Based on previous research, a random utility model
was established to determine the impacts of each attribute on travelers. The established
model (Milan,1996; Park et al., 2006) is:
U i = β1S1 + β 2 S 2 + β 3 S3 + ... + β m S m + β a RAir + β h RHighway + β r RHSR + ε i

In this model, U i is the random utility; S1 to S m represents the attributes of the specified

mode; β1 to β m stands for the coefficients of the corresponding attributes;

RAir , RHighway , RHSR are for the dummies, reflecting people's inherent preference towards the

specified mode; β a , β h , β r are the coefficients of the dummies; and ε i represents the
random item. The model is then calibrated.
Usually, the selected attributes of the transportation modes are travel time, travel
expenses, and vehicle service intervals. By substitution of these three attributes, the model
can be defined in Equation (1).
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1724
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Li
U i = β1 + β 2 M i + β 3 Fi + β 4 R Air + β 5 R Highway + β 6 R HSR + ε i
Vi (1)
−1
= β 1Vi + β 2 C i + β 3 Fi + β 4 R Air + β 5 R Highway + β 6 R HSR + ε i

Where: Li = the distance ( km )

Vi = the speed ( km ⋅ min −1 )

M i = the travel expenses ( yuan )

Fi = the vehicle service interval ( h )

Ci = the unit distance cost ( yuan ⋅ km −1 )

Other variables are the same as above.

It should be explained that travel time and travel expenses can be converted into

speed Vi and unit distance cost Ci since the distance by the different modes is almost the
same, which can be taken as the constant.

According to Disaggregate Theory, if ε i is mutually independent and obeys the

Gumble Distribution, then the relationship between the modal split of each mode and its
utility can be expressed as Equation (2) (Gerken, 1991).
Pi = Exp (U i ) / ∑ Exp (U j ) (2)
j

By substituting Equation (1) into Equation (2), the relationship between the modal
split of each mode and its three attributes can be defined in Equation (3).
−1
Exp ( β 1V i + β 2 C i + β 3 F i + β 4 R Air + β 5 R Highway + β 6 R HSR + ε i )
Pi = (3)
∑ j
Exp ( β 1V j
−1
+ β 2C j + β 3 F j + β 4 R Air + β 5 R Highway + β 6 R HSR + ε i )

Calculation of modal split. An SP survey was carried out to calibrate the

model. The content of the survey included the traveler’s basic information and his behavior
related to modal choice. The former involves the traveler’s gender, age, travel purpose, and
onus of travel expenses, etc. In the latter, the above-mentioned attributes of the three
transportation modes in the same corridor are given, and the two attributes (expenses and
interval) of HSR are changed at the same time, and the traveler’s choice for each change is
recorded. The respondents are restricted to those travelers who are waiting at airport and the
coach station for a flight and or coach from Dalian to Shenyang and Changchun. The survey
was carried out at the Dalian Airport and the Dalian Coach Station. A total of 400
questionnaires were issued, and 361 valid questionnaires were recovered, with 206 from
airport and 155 from the coach station. The obtained data were used to calibrate the model.
The results are shown in Table 1 and Equation (4). At the 95% confidence level, all the
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1725
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tested indicators meet the required precision.

Table 1. Calibrated Parameters in the Utility Model.
Calibrated
Parameters T score
coefficients
HSR -0.2039 -4.88
Dummies Highway -2.9776 -6.27
Air 1.3989 5.64
Speed (km/min) -1.32173 -4.83
Attributes Unit distance cost (yuan/km) -4.089732 -11.79
Interval ( h ) -0.101329 -2.97
−1
U HSR = −1.32173VHSR − 4.089732CHSR − 0.101329 FHSR − 0.2039 RHSR
−1
U Highway = −1.32173VHighway − 4.089732CHighway − 0.101329 FHighway − 2.9776 RHighway (4)
−1
U Air = −1.32173VAir − 4.089732C Air − 0.101329 FAir + 1.3989 RAir
The negative coefficients of the three attributes indicate that the utility of the mode
will increase if the speed accelerates, the unit distance cost declines, or the interval
decreases. Given a group of attribute values of HSR, highway and air, then the modal split
of the three modes can be calculated based on Equation (3) and Equation (4). The results are
shown in Table 2. The first group is the characteristics and the modal split of the three
modes from Dalian to Changchun and Harbin, and the second is that from Dalian to
Shenyang. The reason for the distinction lies in the distance differences between these cities.
The results demonstrate that the original market share of highway and air will be assumed
by HSR after its opening, and that HSR will become the main means of transportation in the
Harbin-Dalian corridor in the near future.
Table 2. Utility Values and Modal Split of Three Modes with Different Intervals.
Transportation Vi Ci
Fi (h) Ui Pi (%)
modes (km/min) (yuan/km)
HSR 4.3677 0.5000 3 -2.85537 0.680151
1 Highway 1.5011 0.2319 12 -6.02246 0.028652
Air 8.6267 0.9857 9 -3.70368 0.291197
HSR 4.3677 0.5000 3 -2.85537 0.81829
2 Highway 1.5011 0.2319 1 -4.90785 0.105082
Air 8.6267 0.9857 24 -5.22362 0.076628

EVALUATION METHOD FOR TRANSFER FACILITIES

Such a large modal split for HSR indicates that the construction of transfer facilities
is of great value and significance. The better the transfer facilities, the less the access and
egress time will be, and then the larger market share the mode will take. The transfer system
of HSR mainly includes bus, light rail, subway, and car. Among them, rail transit is deemed
to be the most efficient way of connecting inter-city traffic with the cities. However, it is
often considered to have many disadvantages, such as huge initial investment, long
construction period, low effectiveness, etc. This is because the input-output money of rail
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1726
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transit is of concern, about but its spread effects are ignored. We present a comprehensive
evaluation method for the effects of rail transit based on cost-benefit theory. With this
method, the beneficiaries are classified into three parts, namely the facilities’ suppliers, the
facilities’ users, and the whole society. The sum of the monetary value of the three parts is
taken as the total benefits of rail transit. The thinking behind this method is shown in Figure
3.

Figure 3. Comprehensive evaluation method.

Benefits to suppliers and users. The suppliers of the rail transfer system are the
public authorities or private enterprises; their benefits during the period of operation can be
calculated by the margins of the suppliers’ income and their expenditures. Benefits to the
users can be defined as the reduction of their costs in terms of money, time, and other
expenses caused by the transfer system.
The process of the calculation is outlined as follows. First, list all routes in which
costs change as a result of the appearance of the transfer system. Then, calculate the costs
and the traffic volume in both existing and non-existing cases. Finally, use the following
equation to calculate the benefits of the users:
1
UBt = ∑ (Qij0 + Qij1 )(Cij0 − Cij1 ) .
i, j 2

In the equation, 0 and 1 in the upper right corner of the variables represent the non-
existence and the existence of the transfer facilities respectively; UBt is for the benefits of

the users in the t year; Qij stands for the traffic volume from the traffic zone i to j ; Cij

represents the costs between the two traffic zones. The equation for the calculation of the
costs is:
C = ωT ⋅ [1 + f ( x, c)]

ω represents the time value; T stands for the travel time; and f ( x, c) represents the
congestion function (see Table 3); x is for the number of the travelers; and c represents the
link capacity.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1727
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Table 3. Expressions of the Congestion Function.

Congestion
Degree above
0～100 100～150 150～200 200～250
250
x （％）
c

0.027 0.0828- 0.179 x - 0.69 x - 1.15 x -

c c c
f ( x, c) x
c 0.0558 x
c 0.2 1.22 2.37
It should be noted that the value of the annual benefits needs to be converted into the
total benefits in the same year with the suppliers, according to the discount rate i above.
The following equation can be used:
m
B = ∑ Bt (1 + r )1− t
t =1

in which B is for the total benefits; Bt is for the benefit in the t year; and r represents the
discount rate.
Benefits to society. The transfer system can improve the development of the social
economy, which is much more than the microeconomic returns to the suppliers. The
transportation business is the fundamental industry in the national economy, and it is closely
related to other industries. It means that the development of other industries relies on the
transportation industry, and vice versa. This complementary close relationship demonstrates
that the development of the transportation industry will contribute to other industries and
the whole national economy. The next section studies the contributions the transfer system
brings to the national economy, and also quantitatively calculates the achievement of the
unit investment in the transfer system to the national economy as the social benefits through
the input-output method. Here, the contributions of the passenger transport industry to the
national economy are divided into two parts, the direct effects and the spread effects. The
specific calculation methods are illustrated as follows.
Analysis of direct effects. The direct effects refer to the net contributions one
certain department makes to the Gross National Product (GNP), which can be calculated
using the following equation:
( x j + Δx) g j gj
dk = − gj = Δx
(i.e. d k = Z ΔX )
T
xj xj

xj g
In the equation, stands for the output value of the Department J ; j represents the

added value of GNP by the Department J ; and Δx is for the added value of the
department’s output.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1728
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Analysis of forward spread effects. The forward spread effects refer to the effects
produced by the connection between one certain department and other departments that
render intermediate products needed for the former department. They can be calculated by
the matrix of the total consumption coefficients with the application of the input-output
Δx
theory. If the output value of the Department J increases by , then the added output
value of other intermediate-input departments can be calculated by
bk = Z T BΔX

Analysis of backward spread effects. The backward spread effects refer to the
GNP produced by the backward connection of one certain department with other
departments that rely on the products of the former as the intermediate input. Assume the

output value of the Department K increases by Δxk , and part of Δxk can serve as the
intermediate input allocated among other departments. If these departments are allocated by
the same proportion according to their original plan, then the allocation of the output value
of the Department J is:
xkj ( xk − xkk + Δx) x Δx
uj = − xkj = kj ( j = 1,L, n; j ≠ k , when j = k , u j = 0 ).
xk − xkk xk − xkk

The allocation of the output value of the Department K can be used to expand the
⎧uj
⎪ a jk ≠ 0
production, and thus the added output value of the Department J is: Δx = ⎨ akj '
j
⎪0 akj = 0
⎩

xkj
stands for the output value produced by the Department K for the consumption of the

aij
Department J ; represents the total consumption coefficients. Then, the added output
value of other departments affected by the Department K is:
Δx ' = (Δx1' ,L, Δxn' )T

Therefore, the created GNP of these departments is:

f k = Z T Δx ' + Z T BΔx

Analysis of consuming spread effects. The consuming spread effects refer to the
added value of GNP created by the three effects mentioned above, due to consumption.
According to the Keynesian Multiplier Theory, if the investment increases by one unit, then

the added value of GNP will increase by the unit of 1 − c ( c means consumption multiplier,

0 < c < 1 ). Then, the consuming spread effects ck can be calculated by:
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c
ck = (d k + f k + bk )
1− c
Therefore, the contributions that Department K makes to GNP can be obtained by
analyzing the direct effects and the spread ones of the department: g k = d k + f k + bk + ck

Calculate the benefits to the suppliers, the users, and the whole society according to
the given construction schemes of different transfer facilities. The scheme with the largest
sum of the three benefits is the optimal.
CASE STUDY
Taking the transfer system of the Dalian HSR station as an example, we calculate the
benefits mentioned above. For suppliers, assume that the government is responsible for the
construction and operation of rail transit. The analyzed expenditures include the fixed assets
investment and the operating cost; the income includes the operational revenue, the residual
value of the fixed assets, the liquidity, and other business revenues.
Taking the price in 2015 as the benchmark and the discount rate as 12 percent, the
average construction cost for one kilometer is about 3 billion yuan based on “Feasibility
Study of Dalian No. 3 Light Rail Line Project.” Therefore, the total fixed assets investment
amounts to 23.1 billion yuan; the operating cost includes 2.76 billion yuan of wages and
other welfare, 1.85 billion yuan of vehicle repair cost, and 3.72 billion yuan of electricity
charges and other overhead, totaling 31.43 billion yuan. The fare revenues are calculated by
0.9 yuan per person per kilometer, so a total of 419 million yuan during the period of
operation can be expected. Other revenues include 7.72 billion yuan of the residual value of
the fixed assets, 300 million yuan of liquidity, and 1.65 billion yuan for other business
revenues, totaling 51.57 billion yuan. Therefore, the total benefits of the rail transit facility
for the suppliers is about 20.14 billion yuan.
For users, the time value should be first calculated (Yang et al., 2001; Dongpo, 2003;
Guanghua, 2004). Here, the ratio of the remuneration of labor and the employed population
in the future years is taken as the time value. According to statistical data from the past
decade, the relationship between the remuneration of labor and GDP, as well as the
relationship between the employed population and the total population, can be obtained.
Combined with the growth rate of GDP and the population in Dalian, the time value for
each year can be calculated. Based on the obtained time value, estimated travel time and
traffic volume, the annual benefit to users during the operational period can be calculated.
With the same discount rate of 12 percent, the total benefits to the users are shown in Table
4.
Table 4. Benefits to Users (unit: billion yuan).
Time Congestion-easing Total Calculation
Mode
benefits benefits benefits period
Bus 835 208 1,043 25 years
Rail transit 409 90 499 25 years
Car 122 － 122 25 years
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For social benefits, based on the data in the “Galaxy of Input-Output Results in
Dalian” and the input-output table of 124 industrial departments, the calculated results are
as follows:
= 0.47
the direct effects: d k

the forward spread effects: bk =

0.42

the backward spread effects: f k =

43.5

the consuming spread effects: c k =

34.6

the overall economic effects: g k = d k + f k + bk + c k =

79

The results above demonstrate that one yuan of additional investment in rail
passenger facilities can bring about 79 yuan in total social benefits. If the total investment in
the rail transit facilities is given, then the total social benefits can be calculated.
CONCLUSION
The paper studied the effects of HSR on the regional transport system. It analyzes
the potential changes in accessibility from the main sites in Dalian to other various cities. It
also studies the modal split of each mode in the Harbin-Dalian corridor and draws
conclusions supporting the necessity for transfer facilities. In addition, the comprehensive
evaluation method for the various transfer facilities provides the theoretical basis for policy-
makers.

REFERENCES
Dongpo, L. (2003). “Analysis method research on the time-value of the passenger
transportation.” East-China economic management, 17(4).
Gerken, J. (1991). “Generalized logit model.” Transportation Research 25B, 75-88.
Guanghua, C. (2004). “Economic evaluation method and practice of the transportation
development strategy.” Urban Transportation 2.
Milan, J. (1996). “The Trans European Railway Network: Three levels of services for the
passengers.” Transport Policy 3(3), 99-104.
Park, Y., and Ha, H. K. (2006). “Analysis of the impact of high-speed railroad service on air
transport demand.” Transportation Research Part E 42(2), 95-104.
Yang, H., Kong, H. Y., and Meng, Q. (2001). “Value-of-time distributions and competitive
bus services.” Transportation Research Part E 37, 411-424.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1731
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Real Option Analysis on Investment Decision-Making of Rail Transit Projects

Aiming to Ease Congestion

Yongling GAO1

1
Business School, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China,
100081; PH (86) 010- 62288080; FAX (86) 010- 62288080; email: 05114170@
bjtu.edu.cn

ABSTRACT
A growing number of cities in China are planning and preparing to construct
rail transit projects. Under uncertain conditions, the presence of irreversibility and
flexibility in rail transit investment makes its timing option valuable. This paper sets
up an option value model based on population scale for evaluating the investment
decision-making of rail transit projects in order to ease metropolitan congestion. The
model reflects fare differences and rail transit’s effect on congestion cost depending
on population scale. Furthermore, the influence of uncertainty factors on investment
decision-making is analyzed through a case study, which could provide a theoretical
basis for government decision-making. Results show the option value increases with
the rise in the volatility and growth rate of population and decreases with the
increase in the proportion of fare differences to income.
INTRODUCTION
Commuting by private vehicle continues to grow in cities in China due to
growing household income, suburbanization of population and employment, and the
rising quality of private vehicles. It is generally agreed that rail transit projects can
help resolve the problems of traffic congestion and dense population in central areas.
A growing number of cities in China invest in rail transit projects in order to reduce
the dependence on private vehicles and encourage more people to use public
transport. However, such projects are costly, and much of the cost is borne by
governments.
The decision-making to invest in infrastructure is largely irreversible. The
importance of irreversibility is usually amplified by the large amount of capital
required by rail transit projects. Therefore, when to invest in rail transit projects is an
essential question for investors. On the one hand, leaving demand unmet for too
long can entail large social cost as congestion increases and pollution builds up. On
the other hand, investing too early may create large social and/or private cost if
underused capacity creates revenue shortfalls (Saphores, 2006). In general,
determining the optimum timing of congestion-relief investment, especially in rail
transit projects, is inherently difficult for at least three reasons.
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First, the net social benefits from such investments are stochastic. A few
related papers such as Arnott (1978), Szymanski (1991), and Braid (1995) allow
only for deterministic urban growth.
Second, investment decision-making of rail transit projects aiming to ease
congestion need to consider fare differences, which is different from road projects.
Rail transit fares have a significant effect on travel demand and congestion cost
savings. Saphores (2006) proposes a model for analyzing the impacts of stochastic
population on the timing of a congestion relief investment. However, the model does
not reflect transit fare and congestion cost with and without rail transit projects.
Third, there is often a considerable lag between the start of a rail transit
project and its completion. Coupled with uncertainty, this lag can complicate the
decision-making process.
The transportation literature has long been concerned with benefit-cost
assessment of transportation projects, but it does not seem to have incorporated
insights from the theory of investment under uncertainty (Dixit, 1994). Indeed, it is
now well known that when an investment is uncertain and irreversible, a standard
cost-benefit analysis (which is static and deterministic) can be seriously biased, as it
ignores the value of waiting and acquiring new information. Rail transit investment
that is uncertain, irreversible, and flexible has typical option characteristics. Under
uncertain conditions, the timing option is valuable.
This paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, utility functions of residents
in the service area of the planned rail transit project are proposed based on real
option analysis. Section 3 builds up the option value model for rail transit
investment aiming to ease congestion and explores the relationship between
congestion cost per capita affected by rail transit and population scale. Section 4
discusses the influence of uncertainty factors such as population growth rate, the
proportion of fare differences to income, and social discount rate on investment
decision-making. The final section concludes the findings and contributions of this
study. The implications and limitations of the study and suggestions for future
research are also presented.
THE UTILITY FUNCTIONS OF RESIDENTS
Stochastic population. With the accelerated process of urbanization,
rapid population growth in cities in China strains the capacity of governments to
provide public transport service. There is a close relationship between population
density and rail transit projects. Errors in population forecasts are typically a crucial
source of uncertainty in infrastructure project analysis. Population uncertainty is
considered in this study because it is often used as a proxy for other forms of
uncertainty, and also because it is often considerable over the time horizon required
for major projects.
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The service area of the planned rail transit project A is shown in Figure 1.
Its width is denoted by 2B . Its length is normalized to 1. h denotes the distance
traveled by the planned rail transit project. h ∈ [0,1] . City residents commute daily
to stations and take this planned rail transit line to the hub for work and study. As
they commute, they incur both transport and congestion costs. Therefore, this study
uses the Manhattan distance (rectangular distance) to reflect the travel distance to
the hub lh. lh denotes the travel distance from a location in the service area to the
hub and lh ∈ [0, B + 1] .

Figure 1. Service area of the planned rail transit project.

The changes in population scale have certain regularity and relative stability,
which depend on socio-economic development and environmental constraints.
Stochastic factors such as tourism and changes in the weather also affect the
population scale. Therefore, population in the service area denoted by x evolves
over time according to the following geometric Brownian motion:
dx = μ xdt + σ xdz (1)
where dz is an increment of a standard Wiener process, μ represents the
expected growth rate of population in the service area, and σ is the population
volatility, which captures the magnitude of the uncertainty.
Equation (1) implies the percentage changes in x , dx/x, are normally
distributed. The current population scale is known, but absolute changes in x are
lognormally distributed. Although information arrives over time (the government
observes population scale), the future population scale is always uncertain.
The utility function of residents before completion of the project.
Saphores (2006) describe a model of an open, monocentric city with fixed
boundaries with congestion. Using his assumptions and notations, city residents
have normalized income one; each of them chooses a location (i.e., distance from
the hub) and an amount of space L . City residents derive utilities from land and a
consumption of a composite commodity and spend on travel to maximize their
utilities. The fraction of congestion cost is proportional to a function of the total
population and the travel distance to the hub. The budget constraint of a city resident
living at a distance lh when the total city population is x can be written as:
r0 ( x, lh ) L + p0lh + c0 = 1 (2)
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where r0(x, lh), p0lh and c0 are the fractions of individual income spent on the
rent per unit area, travel and composite good before completion of the project,
respectively, L is the area of land rented, p0=w0(x)+ λ , w0(x) and λ are the
proportion of congestion cost per unit distance to income before completion of the
project and the proportion of transport cost per unit distance to income, respectively.
The utility of an urban resident might be described by the logarithm of a
Cobb–Douglas utility function:
max U (lh ) = a ln c0 + (1 − a ) ln L (3)
L , c0

where a ∈ [0,1] is the utility elasticity of the numeraire.

Applying the Lagrange function to equations (2)-(3), the demand functions
for land and for the numeraire of a city resident living at a distance lh are given by:
⎧⎪ L(r0 ( x, lh )) = (1 − a )r0 ( x, lh ) −1 (1 − p0lh )
⎨ (4)
⎪⎩c0 (r0 ( x, lh )) = a(1 − p0lh )
In equilibrium, residents will have to achieve the identical utility, no matter
where they choose to live (Solow, 1973).
U(lh)=U(0) (5)
Land rents will have to be lower at greater distances to offset the higher
travel cost. Residents who live further away from the hub achieve the common level
of utility. Land rent changes as residents move away from the hub:
r0 ( x, lh ) = r0 ( x, 0)(1 − p0lh )v +1 (6)
where v is the ratio of the numeraire utility elasticity to the utility elasticity
of the land, v = a (1 − a ) .
Let N0(x,h) denote the number of residents in city who live within a distance
h traveled by the planned rail transit project to the hub when total population in the
service area is x . The population scale in the parallel strips of width 2B and length
dh at distance h from the hub is:
N 0 ( x, h + dh) − N 0 ( x, h) = (∂N 0 ( x, h) ∂h)dh (7)
The corresponding land supply is:
∂N ( x, h)
2 Bdh = ( 0 )dh × L(r0 ( x, lh )) (8)
∂h
The total population in the service area can be expressed as:
1 ∂N ( x, h)
∫0 0∂h dh = x (9)

Combine equations (4), (6), (8), (9), and the equilibrium in the land market
requires ∂N 0 ( x, h) ∂h = 2 Br0 ( x, 0)(v + 1)(1 − p0lh )v . Then, the fraction of individual

income spent on the rent per unit area at the hub is:
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xp0
r0 ( x, 0) = v +1
(10)
2 B[(1 − p0 B) − (1 − p0 B − p0 )v+1 ]

In equilibrium, all residents have the same indirect utility V0(x), so it equals
the indirect utility at the hub:
2 B(1 − a)[(1 − p0 B)v +1 − (1 − p0 B − p0 )v +1 ]
V0 ( x) = a ln a + (1 − a) ln (11)
xp0

The utility function of residents after completion of the project.

Residents minimize their commuting cost by evaluating various commuting options.
A cost minimizing commuter may switch from private vehicle to rail transit if rail
transit significantly reduces the total travel cost. As a result, travel fares of residents
might change after completion of the rail transit project. The proportion of fare
differences to income with and without rail transit m is defined as:
⎛ 3 ⎞
m = ⎜ ∑ΔCk Qk ⎟ YT (12)
⎝ k =1 ⎠
where ΔC1 andΔC2 are fare differences switching from bus to rail transit
and shifting from private car to rail transit, respectively,ΔC3 denotes the other fare
differences including switching from bicycle to rail transit and switching from taxi
to rail transit, Qk is the proportion of residents whose fare difference isΔCk, YT is the
income of residents after completion of the project.
The fare of rail transit service is affected by its construction cost, user
demand, and transport policy, which is primarily determined through a regulatory
process rather than market forces. Thus, fares of using bus and rail transit are
obtained by multiplying average ticket price and travel times per capita. Fares of
using cars and taxis are obtained by multiplying average trip distance and travel cost
per unit distance.
Travel cost of rail transit users include fares, wait time, travel time, and
various cost associated with park and ride. The budget constraint of a resident
changes from equation (2) for two reasons after completion of the project: first, the
fraction of individual income spent on time due to congestion shifts from w0(x) to
wT(x) and second, a fraction m of individual income goes toward paying for rail
transit service.
Using the same logic as above, the indirect utility of a city resident after
completion of the project VT(x) is:
2 B(1 − a )[(1 − p0 B − m)v +1 − (1 − p0 B − m − pT )v +1 ]
VT ( x) = a ln a + (1 − a ) ln (13)
xpT
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where pT = wT ( x) + λ , pT is the fraction of income spent on commuting per

unit distance after completion of the project, wT(x) and λ are the proportion of
congestion cost per unit distance to income after completion of the project and the
proportion of transport cost per unit distance to income, respectively.
OPTION VALUE MODEL FOR RAIL TRANSIT INVESTMENT AIMING TO
EASE CONGESTION
Long-term investments in infrastructure might fundamentally alter
population and employment distribution in the study areas, which can make the
analysis even less reliable (Voith, 2005). Therefore, the option value in this study is
analyzed from a somewhat different standpoint. Instead of analyzing the long-term
path of benefits and cost, whether rail transit projects produce benefits in excess of
their cost is studied after completion of the project. The option value (that is the
investment opportunity value) is denoted by F , which implies the expected utility
changes from the project when the project is completed.
F = max E {∫T
+∞
x[VT ( x) − V0 ( x)]e − ρt dt } (14)

where E denotes the expectation, t is the future time which is after

completion of the project, ρ is the social discount rate, VT(x)-V0(x) is the utility
gained after completion of the project for a city resident because ticket fares are paid
but congestion is now reduced.
For this problem to make sense, μ < ρ is assumed; otherwise, the integral in
equation (1) could be made indefinitely larger by choosing a larger t . Thus, waiting
longer would always be a better policy and the optimum solution would not exist.
Investors who aim to ease congestion determine the timing of rail transit
investment in order to achieve the maximum option value. This is a standard
stopping problem. Indeed, congestion is low and the fare of rail transit service is
relatively high when the population is small, so it is best to wait; this defines the
“waiting region.” Conversely, congestion is relatively severe when the population is
large, so it is optimal to invest immediately; this defines the “stopping region.”
Therefore, investors who aim to ease congestion are looking for x* , which is the
population threshold that separates the waiting region from the stopping region.
They hold the option φ ( x) to construct the rail transit project aiming to relive
congestion. A standard result in real option theory is that φ ( x) satisfies the
equilibrium (Dixit, 1994):
∂φ ( x) σ 2 ∂ 2φ ( x)
ρφ ( x) = μ + (15)
∂x 2 ∂x 2
Equation (15) describes that over a time interval dt , the total expected return
on the investment opportunity, ρφ ( x) is equal to its expected rate of capital
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1737
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appreciation E (dF ) . E (dF ) is expanded by using Ito’s Lemma.

The boundary condition of φ ( x) is:
∂φ ( x) ∂x x = x* = 0 (16)
The expected utility F equals to the optimal value of the investment
opportunity when population scale reaches x* .
φ ( x* ) = F x = x* (17)
Taylor expansions are tools that allow simplifying complex expressions
without loss of generality. For 0 ≤ y << 1 and α ≠ 0 , Taylor expansions are :
(1 + y )α ≈ 1 + α y + α (α − 1) y 2 2 (18)
ln(1 + y ) ≈ y − y 2
2
(19)
For w0 ( x) , wT ( x) and m are far less than one, according to equation (18)-
(19), VT ( x) − V0 ( x) is:
VT ( x) − V0 ( x) ≈ 0.5a [ w0 ( x) − wT ( x) ] − am (20)
Litman (2004) describes the relationship between congestion cost per capita
and population scale in major U.S. cities based on the Texas Transportation
Institute’s annual urban mobility study, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Congestion cost per capita and population scale in cities.

Notes. Large rail means that more than half of transit passenger-miles are by rail. Small
rail means that rail transit is a minor component of the transport system. Bus only means
that cities don’t have rail transit system.
Large Rail cities in Figure 2 have substantially lower congestion cost than
comparable size cities. For cities with Small Rail or Bus Only transit systems, traffic
congestion increases substantially with the increase in city size, but cities with Large
Rail transit systems do not follow this pattern. New York and Chicago have about
half the congestion delay per capita as Los Angeles. Congestion cost tends to
increase with city size, as indicated by the dashed curve.
Weisbrod estimates the influence of transport infrastructure on congestion
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reduction ranges from 2.5 to 6.3 percent of travel cost (Weisbrod, 2001). The
average travel distance is denoted by l , which is assumed to be 1. Based on the
above data in Figure 2, the proportion of congestion cost differences to income per
distance can be expressed as:
w0 ( x) − wT ( x) = [ f ( x) − g ( x) ] lYT = 0.0046 xT1.4164 (21)
where f ( x) and g ( x) denote the congestion cost per capita before and after
completion of the project, respectively, the population scale is denoted by x million
people, income per capita YT is set to $21587 according to U.S. census data in 2000.
For x follows the geometric Brownian motion of equation (1), the expected
present discounted value can be expressed as (Dixit and Pindyck, 1994):
⎡⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎤
E ⎡ ∫ x1+θ e − ρ t dt ⎤ = ∫ xT 1+θ exp ⎢⎜ (1 + θ ) μ − ρ + θ (1 + θ )σ 2 ⎟ t ⎥ dt (22)
+∞ +∞

⎣⎢ T ⎦⎥ T ⎣⎝ 2 ⎠ ⎦

where μ < ρ , (θ + 1) μ − 0.5θ (θ + 1)σ 2 < ρ ; otherwise, if t is big enough,

waiting longer is always a better strategy and the optimal solution does not exist.
Combine equation (20)-(21) with equation (14) to get the option value (that
is the expected utility when the project is completed) F :
⎛ 0.0023 × xT2.4 e − ( ρ −2.4 μ −1.7σ 2 )T mxT e − ( ρ − μ )T ⎞
F = a⎜ − ⎟⎟ (23)
⎜ ρ − 2.4 μ − 1.7 σ 2
ρ − μ
⎝ ⎠
where μ represents the population growth rate, σ is the population
volatility, xT denotes the population scale after the completion of the project, ρ is
the social discount rate, T is the time after construction, m is the proportion of fare
differences to income m .
INFLUENCE OF UNCERTAINTY FACTORS ON THE OPTION VALUE TO
INVEST
Since rail transit construction in cities in China is at an early stage of rapid
development, it is difficult to use the existing data to calculate congestion cost
reduction. Therefore, this paper uses equation (21) to evaluate the option value. The
model parameters in this paper come from the 2003 resident trip survey and urban
rail transit planning in Xiamen.
The joint impacts of σ and μ on the option value are explored by the
sensitivity analysis, as illustrated in Figure 3. The option value increases with the
rise in the population growth rate. The option value increases gently with σ when
μ equals to 3 and 3.5 percent and increases sharply with σ when μ equals to 4%
because μ needs to be smaller than 0.0414-0.71σ2 from equation (23) for the
present value of the expected utility to be finite. It is then optimal to wait for higher
values of population growth rate to invest in rail transit projects.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1739
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Figure 3. F versus σ for different values of population growth rate.

ρ =10%, m = 0.01, T =5 years,
Notes. Model parameters for generating the above results:
x T=1.5 million, a =0.5.
A decrease in the proportion of fare differences to income m increases the
individual utility from the project as shown in Figure 4. Greater ticket price of rail
transit raises the cost of using public transport and this increase in travel cost will
reduce utility. The proportion of fare differences to income m has a steady impact on
the option value on the range of σ considered. Increasing m from 1 to 3 percent
causes the decrease in the option value. m needs to be smaller than 2.35 percent for
the option value to be positive.

Figure 4. F versus σ for proportions of fare differences to income.

Notes. Model parameters for generating the above results: ρ =10%, μ =3.5%, T =5 years,
x T=1.5 million, a =0.5.
Figure 5 illustrates how the option value F varies with the population
volatility σ for different levels of social discount rate. The option value F rises
more sharply with σ when ρ equal to 9% and less sharply when ρ equal to 10
percent and 11 percent. Decreasing the social discount rate increases the option
value and causes the earlier investment in congestion reduction.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1740
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Figure 5. F versus σ for different values of social discount rate.

Notes. Model parameters for generating the above results: m = 0.01, μ =3.5%, T =5 years,
x T=1.5 million, a =0.5.
The option value shows an increasing relationship with population growth
rate. The option value decreases with the increase in the proportion of fare
differences to income and social discount rate. The project becomes increasingly
attractive as σ increases.
CONCLUSIONS
This paper presents the option value model for rail transit investment by
using real options and conducts the sensitivity analysis of the option value. Results
show the option value increases with the rise in the volatility and growth rate of
population. The increase in the proportion of fare differences to income decreases
the option value. Following are the main contributions of this paper: (a) formulate
and develop the option value model to measure flexibility in decision-making of rail
transit projects, (b) reflect fare differences and rail transit’s effect on congestion cost
depending on population scale, and (c) examine the impacts of uncertainty factors
on the option value.
Despite the contributions of the proposed real option analysis, there are some
notable limitations that should be addressed in future research efforts. The impacts
of rail transit projects on travel cost and congestion cost reduction in cities in China
toned to be assessed. In addition, analyzing the investment decision-making in
expanding urban areas remains a future research task. However, the model could be
expanded to study other externalities linked to population fluctuations.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This paper was supported by the 3rd stage of project “211,” CUFE.

REFERENCES
Arnott, R. J., and MacKinnon J. G.. (1978). “Market and shadow land rents with
congestion.” The American Economic Review 68(4), 588-600.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1741
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Braid, R. M. (1995). “The use of land for roadways in a growing Mills-de Ferranti
urban area.” Journal of Urban Economics 37(2), 131-160.
Dixit, A. K., and Pindyck R.S. (1994). “Chapter 3 stochastic processes and Ito’s
Lemma.” Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton, New Jersey. 82-83, 136-
138.
Litman, T. (2004). “Rail Transit in America: a Comprehensive Evaluation of
Benefits.” http://www.vtpi.org/railben.pdf
Saphores, J.,D.,M., and Boarnet, M. G. (2006). “Uncertainty and the timing of an
urban congestion relief investment: The no-land case.” Journal of Urban
Economics 59(2), 189–208.
Solow, R. M. (1973). “Congestion and the use of land for streets.” The Bell Journal
of Economics and Management Science 4(2), 602-618.
Szymanski, S. (1991). “The optimal timing of infrastructure investment.” Journal of
Transport Economics and Policy 25 (3), 247–258.
Voith, R. (2005). “Effects of urban rail transit expansions: Evidence from sixteen
cities, 1970–2000 Comment.” Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, Brookings
Institution Press, Washington, 147-160.
Weisbrod, G.., Vary, D., and Treyz, G.. (2001). “Chapter 5 case studies I: Estimation
of business delivery costs.” Economic Implications of Congestion National
Academy Press, Washington, 41-43.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1742
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Planning a Backbone Road Network in Scenic Areas Using the Importance

Method

Chun-peng HAN 1, Pei-feng CHENG 2

1
College of Civil Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, No.26 Hexing Road
Xiangfang District, Harbin; PH (86) 0451-82192303;email: hcp_1979@163.com
2
College of Civil Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, No.26 Hexing Road
Xiangfang District, Harbin; PH (86) 0451-82191807;email: chengpeifeng@126.com

ABSTRACT
To improve the rationality of road network planning in scenic areas, the paper
proposes that the Importance Method should be used to plan backbone road networks
in scenic areas. Nodes are selected according to the layout of scenic spots and service
stations, the scenic resources, and the reception capability. Then, the nodes are
ranked by their importance. Finally, the backbone road network is established with
the Minimum Spanning Tree. Then, the local road plans can be completed and a
reasonable structure of the road network can be formed. Sun Island, a scenic area of
in Harbin City, was taken as an example to illustrate the applicability of the
Importance Method in road network planning. The study shows that the Importance
Method can be used as a scientific and reasonable method for the backbone road
network planning in scenic areas.
INTRODUCTION
The road network in a scenic area is an important basic facility that connects
all scenic spots and service stations. Because differences exist in terms of land form,
characteristics, and distributions of scenic spots, it is very difficult to find a uniform
standard of planning and design. The currently existing Code for Scenic Area
Planning (GB50298-1999) in China does not provide detailed standards for road
network planning in scenic areas. Different standards have been adopted according
the actual situation of each case. Therefore, investigating and exploring the methods
and theories of road network planning in scenic areas have become a topic of great
practical significance.
For a big scenic area with a flat physiognomy and mainly serving tourists, by
using some road network planning theories for reference, scientific planning and
design can be realized so as to seek a reasonable road network structure and enhance
the level of road network service.
IMPORTANCE OF NODES IN SCENIC AREAS
The term Importance is a comprehensive measurement of relative
significance of every node in a scenic area. The method of ranking nodes according
to their importance and then selecting nodes is defined as the Importance Method
(Yang,1998). Nodes in a scenic area should be key scenic spots or important service
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1743
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stations that have great reception capability and are able to show the styles of the
scenic area (Fang, 2003). The most important steps for the layout of backbone road
networks in scenic areas are to decide nodes, evaluate the importance of the nodes,
rank the nodes, and connect important nodes with backbone roads reasonably.
Importance of Scenic Spot Nodes. The scenic spots with an Importance
higher than 10 percent and a reception capability larger than 15 percent must be
connected by backbone roads. It is preferred to make backbone roads connect the
scenic spots with an Importance higher than 5 percent and a reception capability
larger than 10 percent. If backbone roads cannot reach these scenic spots for some
reason, secondary backbone roads must reach them, so that it is guaranteed that all
important scenic spots are connected by backbone roads or secondary backbone
roads.
Reception capability (showing visitor capability of the scenic spot) and scenic
resource level (showing attraction of the scenic spot) can reflect the importance of
the scenic spot node.
Equation of scenic spot node Importance:
Ri J
z i 1 = (α 1 + α 2 i ) × 100 % (1)
Ra Ja

Where,
z i 1 =Importance of node “i” (current or predicted value)
Ri =Reception capability of node “i”
Ra =Full reception capability of the scenic area
J i =Scenery resource level of node “i”
J a =Full level of scenic resource in the scenic area
α 1 =Proportion coefficient of reception capability, choose 0.6
α 2 =Proportion coefficient of level of scenery resource, choose 0.4
According to the calculated Importance, a scenic spot can be quantitatively
analyzed and judged whether the scenic spot is a main node. Consult Table 1 for
scenic resource scores of nodes in a scenic area.

Table 1. Scenic resource scores of scenic spot nodes in a scenic area.

Grade Scenery description Score
A Peculiar representative unique scenery 5
B profuse fascinating characteristic scenery 3
C Abundant absorbing scenery 2
D Ordinary scenery 1
Importance of Service Station Nodes. Service stations have many functions,
mainly providing tourists with food, rest, amusement, and other services. Service
stations are usually distributed at different places in a scenic area. Service stations are
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1744
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also important nodes that the road network of the scenic area must connect.
Equation of service station importance:
Ri
zi 2 = α1 × 100% (2)
Ra
Where,
z i 2 =Importance of node “i” (current or predicted value)
Ri =Reception capability of node “i”
Ra =Full reception capability of the scenic area
α1 =Proportion coefficient of reception capability, choose 0.6
During planning, many scenic areas arrange service stations in main scenic
spots. In other words, there are scenic resources and service stations in a scenic spot.
In this case, the reception capability of the scenic spot should include the reception
capability of the service stations, and synthetically calculate the Importance of the
scenic spot as the Importance of the node.
PLANNING OF BACKBONE ROAD NETWORK IN SCENIC AREAS WITH
MINIMUM SPANNING TREE THEOREM
Figure, Tree, and Qualities. Figure is the aggregation of dot and side,
expressed as G=(V，E), in which V represents aggregation of dots, E represents
aggregation of sides. In Figure G, if there is a alternant sequence
{v i1 , ei1 , vi2 , ei2 ,..., vik −1 , eik −1 , vik } between a dot and a side, it is called chain from vi1

to vik . If there are more than one chain between random two dots, the figure is

named a connectivity figure. Otherwise, it is called a no-connectivity figure. If one

connectivity figure does not include any circle, the figure is named a tree. The tree
has the following qualities:
(1) In a tree, there is definitely and only a chain between random two dots.
(2) If a side is deleted random, then the tree will become no-connectivity figure.
(3) If one side is added between random two culminations, then a circle will be
produced.
If T(V，E′), part of figure G=(V，E) is a tree, T is called part of tree in G. There
will be part of a tree in any connectivity figure. In Figure 1, “b” is part of the tree of
“a” (Wang,2004).

Figure 1. Figure and part tree.

ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1745
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Minimum Spanning Tree Theorem. If T* is a tree in Figure G, for every

side e = [Vi，Vj] has a numerical value Wij≥0. Minimum Spanning Tree theorem is to
find T* in figure G, so as to let:

W (T ∗ ) = ∑W ij
(3)
( Vi , V j ) ⊂T ∗

have minimum value. When and only when every side but T* is :
{
Wij≥max Wii1 , Wi1i2 ,...,Wik −1 j } (4)
In the expression (4), ﹛ Vi ,Vi1 , Vi2 ...,Vik −1 ,V j ﹜ is the only chain from Vi to Vj .
According to quality (3) of a tree, we know if any side〔Vi，Vj〕 but T* is
added to T*, the only circle will be produced. Minimum Spanning Tree theorem is
that〔Vi，Vj〕is the side with the largest weighted value in its circle. Minimum
Spanning Tree may be made certain with the method of avoiding circle. First, the
side with the smallest weighted value is chosen in figure. Then every time, the side
with the smallest weighted value is chosen from the not chosen sides and the sides
chosen should not shape any circle. Finally, all chosen sides shape a tree
(Wang,2004).
Planning of Backbone Road Network in Scenic Areas. The method of
ranking nodes by importance is a simple and practical method. Nodes can be selected
in turn as required during planning. Nodes can also be selected according to
importance in average, which is used as the “eligible” standard.
Planning of a backbone road network can be carried out when the Importance
of all nodes in the scenic area have been calculated. The backbone road network
connects main scenic spots and service stations while taking main transportation
tasks in the scenic area. Overall plans must be made during designing the backbone
road network. Not only should the positions of scenic spots or service stations in the
road network be considered, but also the trend of development should be taken into
account. Not only should the particularity of nodes be considered, but also the
reasonableness of road network layout in the scenic area taken into account. The
planning should be made efficiently, reasonably and economically (Huang, 2004).
On the basis of Importance of nodes being set, consulting the law of gravity,
the Importance of road section , also called weighted road section value, can be
calculated:
Z (i ) × Z ( j )
F −1 (i, j ) = K (5)
L2 (i, j )
Where,
F −1 (i, j ) = Importance of road from node “i” to node “j”（weighted road section
value
K = adjustment coefficient，adopt 100
Z (i ) 、 Z ( j ) =Importance of node “i” and node “j”
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1746
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L(i, j ) =the distance of from node “i” to node “j”

Importance of every road section can be calculated with equation (5). The
Framework of the backbone road network can be determined through the minimum
spanning tree. Then, the framework of the backbone road network can be perfected
according to the reception capability of scenic spots, designed traffic capability of
roads, and the general style of the scenic area. As a result, the best plan of the road
network in the scenic area will be made successfully.
Example. The Sun Island scenic area is used as an example to illustrate the
specific procedures of applying the Importance method to road network planning in
scenic areas. In the area from the Jingbei Road to the Songhua River, there are
numerous Russian-style buildings, including the Russian Royal Golden Theater, the
Yu Zhi-xue Art Gallery, the Sun Island Art Hall, and so on. The layout of these
buildings is orderly and reasonable. The existing road network is rather reasonably
designed. So a new plan can be made on the basis of the existing road network. In the
area on the north of Jingbei Road, the scenic spots are rather randomly arranged. The
Sun Waterfall is the most important scenic spot there. The Importance Method can be
applied to plan this area separately. Figure 2 shows the layout of scenic spots in the
area on the north of Jingbei road.

Figure 2. Scenic spot node layout on the north of Jingbei Road.

Importance is calculated according to reception capability and scenic resource

level of every scenic spot and service station in the area. According to the layout of
scenic spots in Sun Island and the general plan, nodes with Importance lower than 5
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1747
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percent will not be considered during the planning of the backbone road network.
Three visiting routes are determined (Su, 2001), which are: Sun Gate→ Deer
Garden→ Squirrel Island→ Swan Lake→ Sun Waterfall; Sun Gate→ Russian Artists
Village→ Cloud-Water Gloriette→ Harbin Niigata Friendship Garden→ Sun
Waterfall; Sun Gate→ Flower Garden→ Ice and Snow Art Hall→ Sun Waterfall. A
topology figure (Figure 3) is drawn according to the layout of the visiting routes as
well as the feasibility and necessity of links between nodes.

Figure 3. Topology of nodes on the North of Jingbei Road.

Table 2. Reception Capability and Scenic Resource Level of Nodes in Sun

Island.
Reception
Serial Level of scenic
Name of node capability
number resource
(people)
1 Sun Gate 600 B
2 Deer Garden 200 B
3 Squirrel Island 200 C
4 Swan Lake 200 B
5 Snow Sculpture Art Garden 100 C
6 Flower Garden 200 C
7 Ice and Snow Art Hall 300 C
8 Russian Artists Village 200 C
9 Cloud-water Gloriette 400 B
10 Car-racing Field 100 C
11 Harbin Niigata Friendship Garden 300 B
12 Sun Waterfall 500 A
13 Sunbath Platform 100 C
14 Deng Woods 200 C
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1748
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Table 3. Distance between nodes in Sun Island.

Distance Distance
Side Side Side Distance (km)
(km) (km)
L1,2 0.8 L3,11 0.6 L8,9 1.0
L1,5 0.4 L4,11 0.5 L8,13 2.0
L1,8 0.8 L4,12 0.5 L9,10 0.6
L2,3 0.4 L5,6 0.2 L10,11 0.5
L2,6 0.5 L6,7 0.4 L11,12 0.6
L2,9 0.8 L6,9 0.6 L12,14 1.1
L3,4 0.5 L7,12 1.0

Table 4. Importance of every node in Sun Island.

Serial Importance Serial Name of Importance
Name of node
number (%) number node (%)
Russian Artists
1 Sun Gate 13.3 8 5.5
Village
Cloud-Water
2 Deer Garden 6.6 9 10.0
Gloriette
Car-racing
3 Squirrel Island 5.5 10 3.9
Field
Harbin Niigata
4 Swan Lake 6.6 11 8.4
FriendshipGarden
Snow Sculpture Sun
5 3.9 12 14.0
Art Garden Waterfall
Sunbath
6 flower garden 5.5 13 4.0
Platform
Ice and Snow Deng
7 7.3 14 5.5
Art Hall Woods

Table 5. Importance of Road Sections in Sun Island.

Number of Number of Number of
Importance Importance Importance
road section road section road section
F-1(1，2) 1.37 F-1(3，11) 1.28 F-1(7，9) 2.92
F-1(1，6) 4.57 -1
F (4，11) 2.22 -1
F (7，12) 1.02
F-1(1，8) 1.14 -1
F (4，12) 3.70 -1
F (8，9) 0.60
F-1(2，3) 2.27 -1
F (6，7) 2.50 -1
F (9，11) 3.36
F-1(2，9) 1.03 -1
F (6，8) 1.54 -1
F (11，12) 3.27
F-1(3，4) 1.45 -1
F (6，9) 0.15 -1
F (12，14) 0.64
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1749
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Figure 4. Topology figure of road backbone network in Sun Island.

The Importance values of nodes can be calculated from the reception
capability and the scenic resource level (Table 2). The Importance values of road
sections (Table 5) can be calculated from the Importance of nodes (Table 4) and
distance of nodes (Table 3). According to Minimum Spanning Tree theorem, the
topology figure (Figure 4) of the road backbone network can be drawn with the
method of avoiding circle. The road backbone network in Sun Island is: Flower
Garden→ Cloud-Water Gloriette→ Russian Artists Village→ Sun Gate→ Deer
Garden→ Squirrel Island→ Harbin Niigata Friendship Garden→ Swan Lake→ Sun
Waterfall→ Deng Woods(Ice and Snow Art Hall). On the basis of this, the road
backbone network should be perfected according to actual situations. Figure 5 shows
the final road network in Sun Island.

Figure 5. Road Network Plan in Sun Island.

CONCLUSIONS
(1) During road network planning in scenic areas, some theories of highway
planning are consulted. Scenic spots and service stations are regarded as nodes in
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1750
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road network planning in scenic areas.

(2) According to traffic requirements and development, the Importance
Method can be used to plan backbone roads, to perfect road network structure, and to
form integrated road network systems.
(3) Application of the Importance Method needs relatively less information.
The method is especially suitable for planning a new scenic area. All important
scenic spots can be covered since the nodes are selected according to Importance.

REFERENCES
Fang, G. (2003). “Preliminarily approaching the studies on the road system planning
of tourist areas.” Journal of Fujian Forestry Science and Technology 2(30),
31-34.
Huang, Y.(2003). “Discussions on road design of scenic areas.” Nonferrous Metals
Engineering & Research 3(24), 29-33.
Su, P. (2001). “Theory and method of the prelude space planning of tourism
area.” Human Geography 5(16), 58-61.
Wang, W. (2004).“Section 5: Figure and network system.” Road Traffic Engineering
System Analysis Method. China Communication Press, Beijing, 5.1-5.5.
Yang, T. (1998). “Section 7: The method of highway network planning and
designing.” Highway Network Planning. China Communication Press ，
Beijing 7.1-7.3.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1751
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Study on the Impedance Function Model of the City Road:

The Case of Ningbo, China

Yu CHEN1, Yong-ping ZHANG1, Zhong-kun HE1

1
School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Ningbo University of
Technology. Cuibai Road 20, 315016, Ningbo, China; PH (086) 0574-87251161;
email: cymdz@126.com

ABSTRACT
An important aspect of traffic planning is organizing and rationally assigning
traffic flow. The impedance function can reflect the impact of traffic flow on the
impedance of road sections and intersections. The impedance function of the road
can be divided into two parts of impedance, section and intersection. Taking the
motor vehicle as the research object, on the basis of the BPR prototype function, this
paper builds the impedance function model of a city section in connection with the
road type on the premise of distinguishing the road class, studies the impedance of
left-turn and right-turn vehicle flow in signalized intersections, and sets up an
intersection impedance function model based on an exponential function. The
influencing factor is calibrated by use of road data for Ningbo city. The results
indicate that the impedance function model of the road can better reflect local actual
traffic in Ningbo city.

INTRODUCTION
With accelerating urbanization and motorcar popularization, the urban traffic
system has become more crowded and results in more traffic accidents, which is a
serious problem in both China and western countries. The direct way to solve this
traffic problem is to improve traffic network capacity, but there are bottlenecks of
land resources, financing, and so on. Therefore, the most effective way to solve the
problem is to establish a modern traffic management system to strengthen urban
traffic management.
Impedance reflects the feasibility of road traffic control and the design and
extent of road block problems and service satisfaction for road users. Urban road
impedance functions include section and intersection impedance functions. The
section impedance function plays an important role in the process of distribution and
determines the choice of path. The intersection impedance function is an important
index to evaluate operating efficiency and the service level of traffic, which reflects
the extra time for the user to get through the intersection and the efficiency of the
intersection in the urban road system.
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1752
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IMPEDANCE FUNCTION MODEL

Research hypotheses. At present, the Four-Step Model, as a key in urban
traffic planning theory, is the research foundation of this paper. It assumes the
following conditions:
(1) The interference of motor vehicles, non-motor vehicles, and pedestrians
on urban roads (including intersections) can be ignored.
(2) There is no influence between motor vehicles in opposite directions. The
research objects are converted cars and the equivalent models with the same
impedance function.
(3) Urban roads are divided into arterial roads, secondary roads, and branch
roads; the impact of bus stations on traffic is not considered.
(4) Domestic urban roads are supposed to extend traffic capacity to their full
extent, regardless of the lower traffic capacity of domestic roads compared to their
foreign counterparts.
Section impedance function model. The section impedance function is
the mathematical expression used to calculate section impedance verifying with the
influence factors. Many factors, including distance, time, speed, cost, or their
combination, are used to define a weighted average. Since running time can directly
reflect the degree of vehicle running processes, it is used to describe the highest
frequency of road impedance.
Function prototype. The BPR function, which was developed by the
American Road Board (Yang, 1994) on the basis of actual data considering highway
traffic flow characteristics, is very popular and widely used in the road impedance
function. The basic form of the model is (Yuan, 2002):
t (q ) = t0 [1 + α (q / c) β ]
(1)
Where t (q) is the section travel time (min), q is traffic flow (min), road section
unlimited flow travel time is t0 , road section practical capacity is c , the regression
coefficient is α and β , and the typical value is α =0.15, β =4.
The formula is applicable to urban roads to a certain extent, but the
recommended values of these parameters have some errors in actual use, so we have
redefined it according to the different types of roads to determine whether it is
applicable to the calibration of the macroscopic planning impedance function model.
Parameter demarcations. SPSS12.0 is used to carry out the data fitting.
After varying the normal function, the following are obtained:
β
t ⎛q⎞ (2)
= 1+α ⎜ ⎟
t0 ⎝C⎠
β
t ⎛q⎞ (3)
−1 = α ⎜ ⎟
t0 ⎝C ⎠
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1753
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The formula distorts: Y = β (log α + log ⎛⎜ q ⎞⎟) , the linear equation uses the
⎝C ⎠
fitting straight line equation Y = b0 + b1 X to carry on the parameter fitting.
Fitting in the equation of arterial road, secondary road and branch road, the
results of the parameter fitting are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Parameter Fitting.

Parameter Arterial road Secondary road Branch road
α 0.95 1.27 1.71
β 2.53 2.19 1.97
Controlled intersection impedance function model. The intersection
impedance function is used to calculate intersection impedance varying with
independent variables, which reflects the traffic’s unimpeded degree when passing
the intersection. To determine the optimal plan, the model discusses the situation of
the conflict point impedance of planar cross intersections, which could distinguish
among traffic redirected flows information (Claudio,1997).
Left turn impedance function model.
Basic suppositions.
(1) Traffic regulations ： The green light allows vehicles through
movement and left turns, and vehicles turning left cannot interfere the
direct vehicles and pedestrians.
(2) The traffic flow in the road network is in a non-saturated condition;
the vehicles arrive along with the volume of traffic.
(3) A two-phase signal control is used, plus an exclusive lane for
turning left.
(4) Traffic lane slope, width, and friction coefficient are not taken into
consideration; the vehicle type is car.
Forward impedance model. The model addresses only motor vehicles
and ignores the influence of pedestrians and non-motor vehicles. The basis for the
impedance model is the exponential function model (Shao, 2002):
Q
1 K1
d= K 0e C (4)
60
Where, d is stop line impedance of vehicles (min), Q is flow of motor
vehicles (veh/h), C is capacity of entrance (veh/h), and K0 , K1 are undetermined
coefficients.
K1 is a regulation factor, indicating the variation of saturation along with the
intersection’s current capacity, as well as the adjustment of impedance. The bigger
the value K1 is, the bigger the impedance increment is, and vise versa.
Different types of intersections express different impedance characteristics.
The intersection impedance function needs to be divided according to the different
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1754
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types of crossroads. The concrete model is (Chen,1998):

Q Q
1 K1 1 K1
d = K 0e C = K 0e K2C0 (0.6 N + 0.4) (5)
60 60
Where, C = K 2C0 ( 0.6 N + 0.4 ) , the split regulation factor is K 2 , the traffic
capacity of one intersection entrance lane is C0 (veh/h), and the number of the
intersection entrance lane is N .
When the split in two directions is 1:1, C0 = 500veh / h . Generally speaking, the
split of two directions is different for different types of intersections, and the higher
the grades of road, the bigger of the split.
K 2 can be considered as an adjustment factor of C0 . According to the types of
intersection, K 2 has various values, as shown in Table 2 (Wang,1998).

Table 2. Split Adjustment Parameter of Intersection.

Intersect road grade
Main Secondary
Road grade Arterial Secondary
branch branch Lane
road road
road road
Arterial road (a) 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.8
Secondary road
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.8
(s)
Main branch road
0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6
(b)
Secondary branch
0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4
road (sb)
Lane (l) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0

As to the influence on left-turning vehicles by through-movement vehicles,

considering the stop line impedance, first we suppose the left-turn capacity
reduction coefficient α . Second, suppose conflict point impedance influence
factor β . After taking into account the above two factors of both stop line
impedance of left-turning vehicles and opposite through-movement vehicles, the
left-turning vehicles impedance is :
Q
1 k2C0 (0.6 N +0.4)αβ k1
d = k0 e (6)
60
Where motor vehicle stop line delay is α , and vehicle of relative direction
conflict point impedance influence factor is β .
Right turn impedance function model.
Basic suppositions.
(1) Traffic regulations: “Right turn vehicles are not regulated by
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1755
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signals unless special signals for turning right are employed.”

(2) Set up special right lane, traffic lane slope, width, and friction
coefficients are ignored.
Forward impedance model. Since there is no intersection or conflict to
right- turn vehicles, it is assumed there is no conflict point impedance. For the
current intersection impedance model, supposing the right-turn traffic capacity
reduction coefficient δ, we could establish a new right turn impedance model:
Q
1 k1
d = k0 e k2C0 (0.6 N +0.4)δ (7)
60
Where δ is an undetermined coefficient.
Parameter demarcation.
（1）Demarcation K 0 , K1
Q

In the basic impedance model d = 1 K 0 e K involving demarcation

1
C
K 0 , K1 ，it is
60
acceptable to take the stop line impedance into account. Since the data of stop line
impedance and the flow of entrance lane can be obtained from investigation, the
value of C can be evaluated correspondingly. According to the Exponential formula
Y = b0 eb1 X ， b = K ， so
in SPSS12.0,we can deduce R2=0.988 ， thus 1
b0 = K0 1 1
60
K 0 =0.61， K1 =5.39。
（2）Demarcation α , β and δ
To the left-turn impedance model
Q
1 k1
d = k0 e k2C0 (0.6 N +0.4)αβ (8)
60
We can deform it and get formulas (9-10):
KQ
1
1 Cαβ (9)
d = K0 e
60
60d K1Q (10)
ln =
K 0 Cαβ
β adopts the computational method directly described in Zhang (2001): when
the intersections are constructed by two arterial roads or between arterial road or
secondary road, arterial roads are generally equipped with a special left lane. Under
the protect phase, β =0.95, when two secondary roads confront, or an arterial road
transits to a secondary road or a secondary road to branches, the traffic lane
generally is the exclusive lane. Under the conflict phase, β = 0.95 ⎛⎜ gu ⎞⎟ ，where gu
g ⎝ ⎠
is unsaturated green time, and g is effective green time (Bruce and Karl,1998).
When a branch road transits to other types of road, the lane is mostly an all-purpose
lane. Under the conflict phase, β = (1400 − q ) ⎣⎡(1400 − q ) + ( 235 + 0.435q ) PLT ⎤⎦ ,where PLT
ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems— 1756
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represents proportion of left turn in the mixed lane, and q represents traffic flow of
relative direction.
K1Q (11)
αβ =
60d
C ln
K0
Suppose K1Q where W = αβ . We can obtain α =0.24 according to the
W=
60d
C ln
K0
investigation. The right turn impedance model formulas (12-13) can be deduced.
Q
1 k1
d = k0 e k2C0 (0.6 N + 0.4)δ (12)
60
KQ
1 1
d = K 0 e Cδ (13)
60
Formula (14) be obtained and δ =0.5 with the same method.
K1Q (14)
δ=
60d
C ln
K0
VERIFYING THE IMPEDANCE FUNCTION MODEL
Collecting data. The data gathering has considered the c