PRODUCCION ANUAL DE UVA DE MESA PERIODO 2010-2016

% RESPECTO AL
AÑO MAXIMO DE PRODUCCION
PRODUCCION

2010 50% 17.50 TM

2011 70% 24.50 TM
2012 80% 28.00 TM
2013 90% 31.50 TM
2014 100% 35.00 TM
2015 100% 35.00 TM
2016 100% 35.00 TM
 1000
DEMANDA ANUAL DE UVA DE MESA PERIODO 2010-2016

AÑO PRODUCCION DEMANDA

### EEUU 70% 12250

2010 17500
EUROPA 30% 5250

### EEUU 70% 17150

2011 24500
EUROPA 30% 7350

### EEUU 70% 19600

2012 28000
EUROPA 30% 8400

### EEUU 70% 22050

2013 31500
EUROPA 30% 9450

### EEUU 70% 24500

2014 35000
EUROPA 30% 10500

### EEUU 70% 24500

2015 35000
EUROPA 30% 10500

### EEUU 70% 24500

2016 35000
EUROPA 30% 10500
 PROYECCION DE VENTAS ANUAL DE UVA DE MESA PERIODO 2010-2016

2010

ESTADOS UNIDOS UNION EUROPEA

EEUU EUROPA
70% 12250 30% 5250

2011

ESTADOS UNIDOS UNION EUROPEA

𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌) 𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×0.7% 1.5% - 0.8% ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×0.6% 1.0% - 0.4%

0.70% 0.60%

= 1.89% = 1.62%

= 12250 + 1.89% (12250) = 5250 + 1.62% (5250)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=12481.525 TM ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 5335.05 TM

MERCADO LOCAL = 24500-12481.53-5335.05

2011 = 6683.42 TM

2012

ESTADOS UNIDOS UNION EUROPEA

𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌) 𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×1.2% 2.0% - 0.8% ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×1.1% 1.5% - 0.4%

1.20% 1.10%

= 3.24% = 2.97%

= 12481.53 + 3.24% (12481.53) = 5335.05 + 2.97% (5335.05)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 12885.93 TM ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 5493.50 TM

MERCADO LOCAL = 28000-12885.93-5493.50

2012 = 9620.57 TM
 2013

ESTADOS UNIDOS UNION EUROPEA

𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌) 𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×1.7% 2.5% - 0.8% ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×1.6% 2.0% - 0.4%

1.70% 1.60%

= 4.59% = 4.32%

= 12885.93 + 4.59% (12885.93) = 5493.5 + 4.32% (5493.5)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 13477.39 TM ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 5730.82 TM

MERCADO LOCAL = 31500-13477.39-5730.82

2013 = 12291.79 TM

2014

ESTADOS UNIDOS UNION EUROPEA

𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌) 𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×2.2% 3.0% - 0.8% ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×1.6% 2.0% - 0.4%

2.20% 1.60%

= 5.94% = 4.32%

= 13477.39 + 5.94% (13477.39) = 5730.82 + 4.32% (5730.82)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 14277.95 TM ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 5978.39 TM

MERCADO LOCAL = 35000-14277.95-5978.39

2014 = 14743.66 TM
 2015

ESTADOS UNIDOS UNION EUROPEA

𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌) 𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×2.7% 3.5% - 0.8% ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×2.10% 2.5% - 0.4%

2.70% 2.10%

= 7.29% = 5.67%

= 14277.95 + 7.29% (14277.95) = 5978.39 + 5.67% (5978.39)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 15318.81 TM ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 6317.36 TM

MERCADO LOCAL = 35000-15318.81-6317.36

2015 = 13363.83 TM

2016

ESTADOS UNIDOS UNION EUROPEA

𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌) 𝐸�= (∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞)/(∆𝑌/𝑌)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=𝐸� × ∆𝑌/𝑌

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵 ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 × ∆𝑌/𝑌 ∆𝑌/𝑌=∆𝑃𝐵𝐼/𝑃𝐵𝐼−∆𝑃𝑂𝐵/𝑃𝑂𝐵

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×4.2% 5.0% - 0.8% ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞=2.7 ×2.6% 3.0% - 0.4%

4.20% 2.60%

= 11.34% = 7.02%

= 15318.81 + 11.34% (15318.81) = 6317.36 + 7.02% (6317.36)

∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 17055.96 TM ∆𝑉𝑞/𝑉𝑞= 6760.84 TM

MERCADO LOCAL = 35000-17055.96-6760.84

2016 = 11183.20 TM
AÑO ESTADOS UNIDOS UNION EUROPEA MERCADO LOCAL TOTAL
2010 12250.00 TM 5250.00 TM 0.00 TM 17500.00 TM
2011 12481.53 TM 5335.05 TM 6683.42 TM 24500.00 TM
2012 12885.93 TM 5493.50 TM 9620.57 TM 28000.00 TM
2013 13477.39 TM 5730.82 TM 12291.79 TM 31500.00 TM
2014 14277.95 TM 5978.39 TM 14743.66 TM 35000.00 TM
2015 15318.81 TM 6317.36 TM 13363.83 TM 35000.00 TM
2016 17055.96 TM 6760.84 TM 11183.20 TM 35000.00 TM