Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.

thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998

CHAPTER SEVEN
THE AFTERMARKET PERFORMANCE OF
THE EGYPTIAN PIPOs
7.0 INTRODUCTION

The main objective of the present chapter is to describe and analyse the

pattern of returns and risks of the Egyptian PIPOs in the aftermarket during the

mentioned period. In Chapter six, we have recorded mean initial excess market-

adjusted returns of 15.03 % across the sample of 32 Egyptian PIPOs. In the present

chapter, these initial returns are taken as a background on searching for the attainable

returns level over the aftermarket period starting from the first day to the end of the

first year of trading in such offerings.

This chapter is believed to be important for a number of reasons. First, there

is a possibility that adjustments of underpricing in the primary market may extend to

the aftermarket. While, this did no appear from our study of the first ten days of

listing recorded in Chapter six, where we found insignificant excess market-adjusted

returns of 2.5% at the end of the first ten days after listing [see Table 6-3], a longer

time horizon of investigation is required to clarify such a possibility.

Second, an investigation into the aftermarket performance of the Egyptian

PIPOs is important in order to determine the benefits achievable from investments in

this market. For instance, what buy and hold strategies produce the highest returns in

the aftermarket? This question may find an answer in the present study since

speculative movements emerge in the prices of the Egyptian PIPOs in their

aftermarket. This finding is found to be consistent with Aggarwal and Rivoli (1990)

who note a general increase in the prices of unseasoned stocks and relate this to

212
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
speculative support of underwriters for the stocks in the early aftermarket period.

Moreover, the estimation for systematic risk may allow investors and bankers to

make inferences about the performance of the PIPOs and to develop techniques to

predict their future risk levels. Finally, most of the previous studies on the

performance of risk of IPOs were carried out mainly in the developed capital markets

of the world, especially in the U.S.. In this chapter, the behaviour of risk in a

developing capital market is examined in order to see if it behaves in a similar

manner or differently from the risk behaviour of IPOs in the developed capital

markets.

Therefore, this chapter is organised in the following way. In section 7.1, an

examination of return performance of the Egyptian PIPOs is made. Section 7.2

investigates the systematic risk in the aftermarket. Then, an analysis of documented

results is conducted in section 7.3. Finally, summary and conclusion are provided in

section 7.4.

7.1 RETURNS IN THE AFTERMARKET

7.1.1 INTRODUCTION

The essential point of our analysis is that there are essential differences

between the pricing process in the initial market and the pricing in the aftermarket.

As we have seen in chapter six, initial returns are a result of prefixed offering price

and quantity set by the issuing firm and the market’s initial valuation of the shares. In

contrast, in the aftermarket there are no price rigidities. The market is free to set its

own value for the shares. Actually, there are many reasons to justify such a

distinction.

213
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
In the literature review chapter, some explanations relevant to the price

performance of the IPOs in the aftermarket are provided. For example, the theory

under the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) says that underpricing in IPOs is

associated with initial mispricing and that stock prices would adjust to their true level

in early trading to remove this underpricing so that significant returns would not be

attainable, on a persistent basis, over the longer term. Moreover, the theoretical

concept of a speculative-bubble concerns an over-reaction to initial underpricing, or

the presence of excess demand in the PIPOs, which is likely to emerge in the

aftermarket. A further reason emerges from the insider-dumping hypothesis which

considers the possibility that stock prices might fall in the aftermarket due to that

insiders may dump their stock on listing, causing a large increase in the supply of

stocks on the market. [see Chapter Two for more details].

7.1.2 DATA AND METHODOLOGY

To investigate the return performance in the aftermarket, the market-adjusted

excess return model described in Chapter six is employed. In applying this model, we

use weekly data for the whole year of trading. Using daily data for a whole year of

trading may have more non-trading problems in the data than if weekly data were

used. Therefore, we use the weekly data to see if there would be any trend formed by

the excess return in the first year after listing.

Monthly data are not used because: firstly, it would not allow us to state with

accuracy the time which the new issues took to conform to the EMH after listing.

Secondly, in a volatile market like the Egyptian Capital Market, monthly data might

not be the best data to portray the behaviour of share performance. This is because

the basic objective of this study is to examine the performance of PIPOs over a short

214
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
period of up to one year after listing. Examinations over a long-run would need more

time and data and we intend to do that after the completion of this thesis.

Furthermore, if a study on a long-run performance of PIPOs are to be carried out

now, it would reduce the number of companies in the sample study.

Since the emphasis is on the price performance of PIPOs over a short period

after the offering, returns in the form of capital gains have been used in the analysis.

In the short-term, the major part of returns on a new issue investment comes from

capital gains since dividends, if declared, will take nearly a year before the

shareholder receives the payment. Furthermore, dividend yields of the Egyptian

privatized companies are very low compared to the capital changes. Also, when the

capital gain is realised, it is free from tax whereas dividends received are income

taxable.

Then, the general index of stock prices in the Egyptian Capital Market is

chosen since it has been regarded as the most representative index in measuring

market movement on the Egyptian Stock Exchange, although several other indexes

are available to measure market movement. Finally, following McGinness (1992),

the returns measures are defined from the offering price in the stocks to periods

ending at the close in the first day of listing, the close in the first four weeks of

trading, the close in the first 26 weeks of trading, and the close in the first 52 weeks

of trading. Returns for the same closing dates are also measured from the first closing

traded price in the PIPOs. In performing this procedure, three connected

examinations were singled out: namely, measuring the performance in general, then

by year of issuance and finally by excluding the outlying stocks.

215
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
7.1.3 EMPIRICAL RESULTS OF RETURNS PERFORMANCE IN THE AFTERMARKET

7.1.3.1 A General Outlook

In this section, we give an overview on the level of returns achievable in the

aftermarket of PIPOs under investigation. Descriptive statistics for all the return

measures described in equations (5-1) and (5-4), are reported in Table 7-1 where raw

returns are shown in Table 7-1 (Panel A) and market-adjusted returns are in Table 7-

1 (Panel B). Examining returns from the original offering date, in Table 7-1 (Panel

A), indicates that significant positive average returns of 29.5% emerge over the

period between the offering date in the stocks and the close in the 52nd week of

listing. However, the return of 17.1 % for the holding period between the offering

date and closing of trading on the first day of listing, indicates that much of the

aftermarket returns of 29.5 % over the period from offering to the 52nd week of

listing are attained by the close in the first day of trading. Further analysis in Table 7-

1 (Panel A) confirms this observation given average returns of only 11.7 % between

the first closing traded price of PIPOs and the 52nd week of listing in the stocks.

Table 7-1 The Return Performance in the Aftermarket of the Sample of Egyptian PIPOs for
Selected Holding Periods
Panel A: Raw Returns Panel B: Market-Adjusted
Returns
Return from: R t (R ) Std D AR t( AR ) Std D
t t t t
Offering to day 1 0.171** 4.758 0.203 0.166** 4.925 0.191
Offering to week 4 0.198** 4.771 0.235 0.191** 4.934 0.219
Offering to week 26 0.371** 4.217 0.498 0.355** 4.217 0.439
Offering to week 52 0.295** 2.972 0.561 0.268** 3.436 0.441
Day 1 to week 4 0.024 1.344 0.101 0.023 1.264 0.101
Day 1 to week 26 0.177** 2.490 0.402 0.171** 2.571 0.377
Day 1 to week 52 0.117 1.417 0.468 -0.019 -1.025 0.102
Rt and AR t are means of raw returns and market-adjusted returns, respectively, and calculated using equations (1 and 4 in
Chapter 5). ** Indicates returns significantly different from zero at 5% level for a two-tailed t-test (Critical t-statistic =1.96).
* Indicates returns significantly different from zero at 10% level for a two-tailed t-test (Critical t-statistic =1.65).
At the same time, further analysis of return performance in the aftermarket of

PIPOs is also made in Table 7-1 (Panel B) where aftermarket returns are compared

216
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
to corresponding returns on the Egyptian Stock Index using market-adjusted returns

model. From these market-adjusted returns, a rather unfavourable picture of

aftermarket performance in the Egyptian PIPOs is indicated. While positive excess

market-adjusted returns emerge when the returns measured from the initial offering

price in the stocks to the close of trading on the 4th, 26th and 52nd weeks of trading,

an average return of -1.9 % is noted for the period between the first closing traded

price in the stocks and the 52nd week of trading.

According to the results in Table 7-1 (Panel B), it is difficult to advise an

investor who purchases PIPO stocks in early aftermarket trading of the selected

sample in Egypt to follow a ‘buy and hold’ strategy to the stocks for the whole of the

52 weeks after listing. However, he might be advised to hold on to the stocks for the

first 26 weeks of listing, given positive excess market-adjusted returns averaging

17.1% between the close in trading on the first day of listing and the close trading on

the 26th week of listing.

After that, the results in Table 7-1 (Panel B) suggest negative average excess

market-adjusted returns. These findings indicate an initial period of reasonable and

acceptable returns in the PIPOs followed by a longer term period of displeasing

returns. Consequently, it is clearly profitable to obtain shares at the original offering

price. Moreover, the measurement of aftermarket returns in early aftermarket trading

may provide a more substantial measure of performance for the same investor than

measures defined from the original offering price. Due to this, a more detailed

analysis of aftermarket returns measured from the first closing traded price in the

stocks is made. To perform such analysis, we first split the 52 day aftermarket period

up into sub-periods of equal duration (i.e. two weeks each). Returns are then

217
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
constructed from the close in the first day of listing to the closing date in each of

these sub-periods. This procedure allows 25 returns to be determined. Descriptive

statistics for these returns, across the selected sample of the 32 PIPOs, are reported in

Table 7-2.

Table 7-2 The Return Performance in the Aftermarket of the Sample of Egyptian
PIPOs from the Close of the First Listing to Periods Ending between 2 and 52 Weeks
Aftermarket
Panel A: Raw Returns Panel B: Market-Adjusted Returns
Return from Rt t ( Rt ) Std D AR t t( AR t ) Std D
Day 1 to week:
2 0.7 0.540 7.2 0.500 0.375 7.6
4 2.4 1.344 10.1 2.259 1.264 10.1
6 3.0 1.176 14.7 3.028 1.210 14.2
8 5.6 * 1.877 16.8 5.792** 1.987 16.5
10 5.6 1.547 20.6 6.084* 1.748 19.7
12 7.5 * 1.761 24.2 7.633** 2.051 21.1
14 10.9 * 1.922 32.2 11.055** 2.141 29.2
16 11.4 ** 2.009 32.0 10.690** 2.160 28.0
18 14.2 ** 2.359 34.1 13.359** 2.459 30.8
20 14.4 ** 2.194 37.2 14.059** 2.306 34.5
22 19.1 ** 2.702 40.1 18.685** 2.778 38.1
24 17.7 ** 2.490 40.2 17.117** 2.571 37.7
26 17.1 ** 2.424 39.9 16.569** 2.511 37.3
28 10.3 1.299 44.6 8.598 1.212 40.1
30 9.7 1.295 42.6 8.299 1.185 39.6
32 9.4 1.185 44.8 6.965 0.951 41.4
34 7.6 1.023 42.0 5.447 0.775 39.7
36 12.0 1.589 42.6 9.096 1.306 39.4
38 11.9 1.603 41.9 9.182 1.313 39.6
40 13.0 * 1.723 42.8 3.500 1.427 13.9
42 12.9 * 1.703 43.0 1.350 1.288 5.9
44 12.8 1.648 43.9 -0.930 -1.220 4.3
46 12.9 1.633 0.44.7 -1.649 -1.220 7.7
48 11.4 1.417 0.45.5 -3.450 -1.019 19.2
50 12.4 1.532 0.46.0 -2.369 -1.161 11.5
52 11.7 1.417 0.46.8 -1.850 -1.025 10.2
** Indicates returns significantly different from zero at 5% level for a two-tailed t-test (Critical t-statistic =1.96).
* Indicates returns significantly different from zero at 10% level for a two-tailed t-test (Critical t-statistic =1.65).

The returns reported in Table 7-2 are shown in two forms: (1) a form of raw

return which is unadjusted for market changes (Panel A) and (2) an excess market-

adjusted return form (Panel B). These returns are shown graphically in Figure 7-1

and, in general, confirm the results noted in Table 7-1 earlier. However, the more

218
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
detailed presentation in Table 7-2 (Panel B) indicates that returns measured from the

first day of trading to the period of 42 weeks aftermarket are, on average, positive. In

contrast, returns measured for the periods closing between 44 and 52 weeks

aftermarket yield negative excess market returns in average. The patterns of returns

described over the first 52 weeks of listing suggests that the average excess returns

experienced a rising trend in the immediate aftermarket return period with declining

trend in returns appearing afterwards.

Figure 7-1 The Average Excess Market-adjusted Returns in Egyptian PIPOs over the First
52 Weeks of Listing.

20
18
16
14
Rate of Return (%)

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52
No. Weeks from Close in 1st listing Date

Un-adgusted Adjusted

219
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
7.1.3.2 The Aftermarket Performance by Year of Issuance

In explaining the trends in the aftermarket returns described above, it is clear

that large standard deviations are reported on most of the 25 excess market-adjusted

returns measures included in Table 7-2. Hence, it is argued that the size of these

standard deviations makes some of these excess returns measures insignificantly

different from zero at conventional significant levels. This observation reveals a

possibility that the structure of returns described may be distorted or biased by

specific stocks or time of issuing.

For example, it is clarified in chapter three that during 1994, the General

Index rose from 136.34 to 238.37, an 74.8 % increase. Also, during 1994, four

companies were privatised. At the end of this year, three mutual funds were

incorporated by banks. At the same time, the government accelerated the rate of the

privatisation program, increasing the supply of shares in the market while the inflow

of funds to the market was restricted. As a result, during 1995, the General Index

dropped by 26% and several privatised companies were trading at prices below their

public offering price. However, the second half of 1996 has been characterised by a

fundamental shift by the government in its willingness to sell the privatized

companies via Stock Exchange. Also, during 1996, the number of domestic mutual

funds increased, and now are investing in Egypt.

Therefore, further analysis of aftermarket returns in the PIPOs stocks is made

by first splitting the period of interest, 1994-96, into two sub-periods (i.e. 1994-95

and 1996). The number of issues made in these sub-periods was 12 and 20

respectively). The average excess market-adjusted returns produced from the issues

220
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
in each of the sub-periods are detailed in Table 7-3 and shown graphically in Figure

7-2.

Accordingly, a variation in the aftermarket performance is noted across the two sub-

periods. In particular, issues made in 1994-95 show higher aftermarket returns on

average, than issues made in the period 1996.

(% )

Figure 7-2 The Average of Excess Market-Adjusted Returns in The Egyptian PIPOs
re tu rn

over the First 52 Weeks of Trading in the Period (1) 1994-95 And (2)1996.
20
e x c e s s

18
16
14
12
M a rk e t- a d j u s te d

10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52
N o . W e e k s fr o m 1 s t lis tin g

1 9 9 4 -9 5 1996

For the issues in 1994-95, a general rise in excess market-adjusted returns is reported

over the first 38 weeks of trading which is then followed by a remarkable downturn

in returns. While the positive returns for the first 38 weeks in this sub-period are

relatively high, and can be taken to indicate inefficiency in the initial pricing of the

issues, the sharp downward trend in returns after this period is difficult to explain

within the market efficiency view. For the issues in the 1996 sub-period, a rising

trend in stock prices, followed by failing trend, is also noted. However, this period of

raising prices is, on average, shorter than for the issues made during 1994-95.

221
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
Table 7-3 Market-Adjusted excess returns for Holding Periods Defined from the Close in the
First Day of Trading to Periods Ending between 2 and 52 Weeks Aftermarket for PIPOs over
the Periods: (1) 1994-95 and (2) 1996
Panel A: 1994-95 Panel B: PIPOs: 1996
Number of Issues: 12 Number of Issues: 20
Return from AR t t( AR t ) Std D AR t t( AR t ) Std D
Day 1 to week
2 1.60 0.762 7.36 -0.17 -0.099 7.77
4 6.93 0.068 11.86 -0.54 -0.305 7.97
6 6.83 1.400 16.91 0.74 0.274 12.12
8 8.24* 1.684 16.95 4.32 1.173 16.47
10 7.60 1.262 20.87 5.17 1.190 19.44
12 9.29 1.540 20.89 6.64 1.372 21.63
14 10.96 1.160 32.73 11.11* 1.789 27.78
16 11.24 1.209 32.21 10.36* 1.780 26.02
18 11.53 1.071 37.31 14.46** 2.389 27.06
20 16.67 1.324 43.61 12.50* 1.936 28.87
22 18.09 1.378 45.49 19.04** 2.496 34.12
24 18.25 1.385 45.67 16.44** 2.211 33.25
26 17.07 1.391 42.51 16.27** 2.078 35.02
28 16.58 1.337 42.96 3.81 0.441 38.66
30 16.18 1.308 42.83 3.57 0.664 37.91
32 13.91 1.104 43.63 2.80 0.308 40.62
34 15.89 1.239 44.43 -0.82 -0.100 36.39
36 17.47 1.399 43.27 4.07 0.490 37.13
38 18.58 1.459 44.11 3.54 0.433 36.57
40 6.39 1.374 16.10 1.77 0.634 12.47
42 2.69 1.381 6.75 0.55 0.452 5.40
44 -1.86 -1.324 4.87 -0.37 -0.418 3.97
46 -3.18 -1.264 8.72 -0.73 -0.466 7.00
48 -7.84 -1.285 21.13 -0.82 -0.204 17.91
50 -4.77 -1.272 12.99 0.10 0.926 0.48
52 -4.01 -1.210 11.48 -0.55 -0.262 9.43
** Indicates returns significantly different from zero at 5% level for a two-tailed t-test (Critical t-statistic =1.96).
* Indicates returns significantly different from zero at 10% level for a two-tailed t-test (Critical t-statistic =1.65).

7.1.3.3 The Aftermarket Performance when excluding Outliers

Despite the disparity in the return movements in Figure 7-2 and Table 7-3

across the issues in the 1994-95 and 1996 sub-periods, the general results are

consistent with the earlier observations made in tables 7-1 and 7-2, where an initial

period of favourable returns in the offerings is indicated with relatively unfavourable

returns emerging after that. Nevertheless, it is still possible that individual stocks

222
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
may be influencing the general pattern of results produced in each of the sub-periods.

Therefore, excess market-adjusted returns in each of the 32 offerings are examined.

In order to help in this respect, reference can be made to Appendix D-10

where excess market-adjusted returns in each of the offerings are reported for periods

between the close in the first day of trading and the 20th, 40th and 52nd weeks of

trading, respectively. Accordingly, it is clear that the stock issues of Paints & Chem.

industries and Nasr City Housing & De. produced aftermarket returns that were

considerably higher than the recorded returns achievable in the remaining 30

offerings under investigation.

This is reflected by the change in average excess market-adjusted returns

across the sample of offerings when these two firms are removed from the sample.

For instance, average market-adjusted excess returns between the close in the first

day of listing and the 20th, 40th and 52nd weeks of trading are 14.06 %, 3.5 % and -

1.85 %, respectively, when the outlying stocks are included in the sample, and

7.37%, 0.86% and 0.01% respectively, when the outlying stocks are excluded.

Moreover, the standard deviation levels around the average return levels are

reduced. Therefore, it is obvious that the overall results reported in Table 7-2 are

positively biased by the incorporation of aftermarket returns calculated on the Paints

& Chem. industries and Nasr City Housing & De. stocks during the first 20 and 40

weeks of trading. More significantly, both issues occurred during the sub-period

1994-95 and the pattern of return performance indicated over this period must have

been significantly affected by the extreme return performance on these stocks. This is

partially revealed in Figure 7-2 where average excess market returns for all offerings

in the period 1994-95 are shown to be higher than the returns in the 1996 sub-period.

223
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
Accordingly, a more important picture of the pattern of aftermarket returns in

the Egyptian PIPOs is provided in Table 7-4 where descriptive statistics are reported

for excess market returns in all offerings except the Paints & Chem. industries and

Nasr City Housing & De. stocks. As in Table 7-3, the first 52 weeks of trading in the

stocks are broken up into sub-periods of equal duration (4 weeks each), and returns

are then constructed from the close in the first day of listing in the stocks to the

closing date in each of these sub-periods.

To evaluate the changes in calculated excess market returns after the removal

of the Paints & Chem. industries and Nasr City Housing & De. stocks from the

sample of offerings, descriptive statistics for market-adjusted excess returns, based

upon all 32 stocks, are shown in Table 7-4 (Panel A) with descriptive statistics for

market-adjusted excess returns for the sample of stocks excluding the Paints &

Chem. industries and Nasr City Housing & De. shown in Table 7-4 (Panel B). The

mean excess market-adjusted returns levels in Table 7-4 (Panels A and B) are also

shown in Figure 7-3.

From the results shown in Table 7-4 and Figure 7-3, it is clear that the

removal of the Paints & Chem. industries and Nasr City Housing & De. stocks

makes an appreciable difference to the 25 market-adjusted excess return measures

analysed. Particularly, market-adjusted excess returns levels, after the removal of the

radical stocks, are considerably lower than when all 32 stocks are considered. More

importantly, significant positive returns emerge for excess market-adjusted returns

ending between 8th and 26th weeks of listing for the sample of stocks including the

Paints & Chem. industries and Nasr City Housing & De., while there is a decrease in

224
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998
the significance levels of the average excess market-adjusted returns across the same

period when the radical stocks are removed from the sample.

However, it is important to note that the general picture of aftermarket

performance across the two samples is essentially the same. Specifically, a period of

rising returns is indicated with a period of declining returns emerging afterwards.

This observation supports the earlier findings recognised in tables 7-1 to 7-3.

However, removing the Paints & Chem. industries and Nasr City Housing & De.

stocks from the sample enables this pattern of aftermarket performance to be more

clearly recognised.
)
( %

Figure 7-3 The Average Excess Market-adjusted Returns in the Egyptian IPO over the
First 52 Weeks of Listing when (I) analysing all stocks Returns and (ii) excluding
e t u r n

outlying stock returns

20
R

18
16
a r k e t

14
12
10
M

8
6
x c e s s

4
2
0
E

-2
-4
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52
N o . W e e k s fr o m 1 s t lis tin g d a te

e x c l. o u tlie r s A ll s to c k s

225
Zakaria S.G.Hegazy: Egyptian Stock Market Efficiency: An Initial Public Offering Perspective, Ph.D.
thesis, Strathclyde University, U.K.,1998

Table 7-4 Market-Adjusted excess Returns for Holding Periods Defined from the
Close in the First Day of Listing in the PIPOs to periods Ending between 2 and 52
Weeks after listing
Panel A: Market-adjusted excess Panel B: Market-adjusted excess
returns using all available stocks returns where Paints & Chem.
industries and Nasr City Housing &
De. stocks are excluded
Return from AR t t( AR t ) Std D AR t t( AR t ) Std D
Day 1 to
week
2 0.500 0.375 7.6 0.44 0.317 7.60
4 2.259 1.264 10.1 1.44 0.805 9.82
6 3.028 1.210 14.2 1.47 0.617 13.05
8 5.792** 1.987 16.5 3.35 1.338 13.73
10 6.084* 1.748 19.7 3.67 1.130 17.77
12 7.633** 2.051 21.1 5.38 1.493 19.72
14 11.055** 2.141 29.2 6.84 1.547 24.22
16 10.690** 2.160 28.0 6.45 1.546 22.84
18 13.359** 2.459 30.8 7.88* 1.923 22.43
20 14.059** 2.306 34.5 7.37* 1.791 22.55
22 18.685** 2.778 38.1 10.81** 2.595 22.82
24 17.117** 2.571 37.7 9.31** 2.263 22.54
26 16.569** 2.511 37.3 8.89** 2.164 22.49
28 8.598 1.212 40.1 1.25 1.254 1.25
30 8.299 1.185 39.6 0.73 0.149 27.04
32 6.965 0.951 41.4 -0.69 -0.690 29.40
34 5.447 0.775 39.7 -2.05 -0.408 27.44
36 9.096 1.306 39.4 1.83 0.358 27.98
38 9.182 1.313 39.6 1.80 0.357 0.36
40 3.500 1.427 13.9 0.86 0.503 9.37
42 1.350 1.288 5.9 0.21 0.293 3.98
44 -0.930 -1.220 4.3 -0.11 -0.199 2.90
46 -1.649 -1.220 7.7 -0.19 -0.198 5.13
48 -3.450 -1.019 19.2 0.09 0.037 13.44
50 -2.369 -1.161 11.5 -0.26 -0.171 8.20
52 -1.850 -1.025 10.2 0.01 0.011 7.25
** Indicates returns significantly different from zero at 5% level for a two-tailed t-test (Critical t-statistic =1.96).
* Indicates returns significantly different from zero at 10% level for a two-tailed t-test (Critical t-statistic =1.65).

226