Experiment 4: Climate change impacts in a representative aquatic ecosystem:

Utilizing long term ecological and meteorological data

Geena Laurie L. Amurao, Nariel Nicole C. Baure, Miguel Alejandro IV A. Herrera,

Samantha D. Macatingrao, Joanne T. Te

Department of Biological Sciences

College of Science, University of Santo Tomas
España, Manila Philippines

Abstract
Climate is the prevailing weather in an area that can be measured by observing
the patterns of temperature, rainfall, precipitation, etc. The datasets of the average
monthly air temperature, surface water temperature, and rainfall data from PAG-ASA
Ambulong Weather station was utilized to analyze the climate statistically. Linear
Regression test was used to ascertain the correlation between the air temperature and
water surface temperature and T- test was also utilized to determine the significance of
the two variables as well. T- Test showed that there a significant difference in the air
temperature and water temperature in Taal Lake alone whereas there is no significant
difference between the air temperature and water temperature in the Philippines and Taal
Lake, respectively. However, Linear Regression revealed that there is a correlation
between the variables.

Introduction
The earth has been in existence for about 4.54 billion years and has always been
in constant change. With those changes, comes the change and development of climate.
Climate is known as the prevailing weather conditions that happen in a certain area, yet
it is always subjected to change, and throughout history, both humans and animals alike
experience and adapted to the likes of the further changing climate. And in the last
650,000 years, the climate has been stuck in seven cycles of glacial ages, and when that
ceased, came the modernization of climate, and also, the human race. Climate change
has been a grueling study for years, enabling satellites and other tools to discover more
about the change. Scientists study landmasses, air, and the ice, areas of water, and the
sun in order to have a further understanding of the phenomena (May, 2014).
And through the years, scientists have been able to gather an immense amount of
data supporting the changes in climate conditions on earth such as the energy from the
sun, the planet’s rotation, even humans have the ability to change the climate and
contribute to the already warming conditions, such as their long-term usage of CFCs,
fossil fuels, certain gases (May, 2014).
Studies suggest that the data from the rainfall and the temperature of a certain area
can portray climate change. A good way to properly observe climate change is by means
of acquiring data from lakes and dams, as they are both sensitive to the slight change of
climate. Indicators vary, such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind, and even
precipitation (May, 2014).
In this experiment, recent available data from the Philippines and Taal Lake was
used to analyze the impacts and effectiveness of climate change. Recent data (2000-
2011) such as rainfall and temperature from the area will be analyzed and plotted. This
is done to: (1) to be able to explain basic concepts, trends, and issues in climate change,
(2) to appreciate the ethical dimensions of climate change processes and their effects, (3)
to use resources with available data for studying climate change, and (4) to discover the
influence of climate change to the environment.

Methodology
In this experiment, the relationship between the given variable including average
monthly air temperature, surface water temperature, and rainfall data sets (which was
recorded from 2000-2011) from PAG-ASA Ambulong Weather Station was utilized to
observed its impact on the climate.
First, the data of the average trends in the water temperature (in Celsius) of Lake
Taal obtained from PAG-ASA Ambulong Weather station was graphed with the use of
Microsoft Excel to show the trends in water temperature changes for the given time period.
Using the most appropriate statistical tool, possible differences in changes where shown.
Next, data sets for the average rainfall and average air temperatures in Lake Taal
were then plotted and graphed as well. Same goes with showing the relationship between
air temperature and rainfall data in the Philippines obtained from PAG-ASA. For the
statistical analysis, linear regression and t-test were implied after assigning which is the
independent and dependent variable. Noted that the level of significance p-value is 0.05
and that the null hypothesis would be accepted provided that the obtained p-value is
greater than 0.05.
Lastly, the number and intensity of typhoons/tropical storms (in terms of winds
speed) from 2000-2011 that passed through Lake Taal region based from a valid online
source of meteorological data were also plotted and observed.
Results and Discussion

Figure 1. a) Mean annual b) mean monthly Surface Water Temperature (in Celsius) in
Taal Lake from 2000-2011

The Philippines, being an archipelagic country, is greatly affected by the ocean

and its dynamic. Monitoring of water surface temperature (WST) is an important aspect
of understanding climate change. Changes in observed WST indicate contributions from
human and natural factors which greatly affect aquatic habitats and hasten ocean
acidification. As shown in figure 1, fluctuations in the surface water temperature (SWT) in
Taal Lake have occurred from 2000-2011.

Paired sample t-test (also known as dependent sample t-test) was applied to
determine whether the differences between two sets of mean observation is zero. For this
data, null hypothesis states that there is no significant difference between the mean
annual and mean monthly surface water temperatures in Taal Lake. Moreover, p-value is
used to give the probability of assuming that the null hypothesis is true and that the
significance level α for a given hypothesis test is a value considered if the results are
statistically significant. If obtained p value less than α means null hypothesis is rejected,
whereas obtaining a p value which is greater than α means that the null hypothesis not
rejected (“Statistics Solutions”, 2019). Using the significance of 0.05, which corresponds
to a 5% risk of concluding the null hypothesis is true, the result has shown that p
value>0.05, thus, accepting the null hypothesis.

Figure 2. Mean Annual Air Temperature (in Celsius) in the a) Philippines b)Taal Lake
from 2000-2011

Figure 3. Mean Annual Rainfall (in millimeters) in a) Philippines b) Taal Lake from
2000-2011

Rainfall and temperature are other significant climate factors necessary in studying
climate change. The relationship between these two factors is that the temperature may
be affected by rainfall due to regulating the distribution of heat from the tropics to higher
latitudes (Huang & Dool, 2993; Loo & Singh,2015) and conditions of cloud formation are
affected by temperature, thus temperatures conversely affect the rainfall as well
(Forsgard, 2013).
The air temperature and rainfall data of the Philippines and Taal lake from 2000-
2011 are employed as other examples to demonstrate climate change. Shown in figures
2 and 3, the annual mean temperature in the Philippines and Taal Lake has shown big
changes within the years indicated.
The average annual temperature of Philippines and Taal lake reached its peak in
2003 and 2010, respectively; and its lowest in 2009 (Philippines) and 2012 (Taal Lake).
Moreover, the annual mean rainfall for both areas has only shown drastic changes from
years 2007-2011. It can be observed that a large dropped in temperature occurred during
the year 2008 but greatly increased in 2010. While, the amount of rainfall increased from
the year 2006 to 2009, it significantly dropped in 2010. Thus, (basing on the figures) when
a tremendous heat trend occurred in 2010, it also had the least amount of rainfall.
 Regression analysis was used to estimate the relationships between two or more
variable, for this case, the air temperature and surface water temperature in Taal Lake
from 2000-2011. Multiple R is the correlation coefficient that measures the strength of a
linear relationship between two variables (Cheusheva, 2018). Obtaining a value of
0.47912831 means that there is a positive correlation between the two variables.
Moreover, t-test has shown a negative correlation value. This means that as one variable
increases, the other tends to decrease, and vice versa. A p value less than 0.05 was also
obtained which means that the null hypothesis is rejected and there is a significant
difference between the air temperature and surface water temperature in Taal Lake from
2000-2011.

Applying the same statistical tool above using the Philippines’ air temperature as
the independent and Taal Lake surface temprerature as the independent variable, results
has shown that there is a low but positive correlation (multiple R = 0.01021071) between
the two variable. The data has also shown a negative pearson correlation value, which
also indicates that there is an inverse relationship between the two variables. P value
otained from this data has shown a value greater than the significance level. This means
that null hypothesis is accepted, and that there is no significant difference between the
air temperature of the Philippines and surface water temperature in Taal Lake from 2000-
2011.

Figure 4. Annual Number of Typhoons/Tropical Storms Passing Through Taal Lake

(2000-2011)
Figure 4 shows the number of typhoons or tropical storms that passed through
Taal Lake from 2000-2011. Based on the trend, the year 2009 had the most number with
a total of 4 typhoons whereas 2008 had the least with 1 typhoon/ tropical storm.
 Figure 5. Annual Intensity of Typhoons/Tropical Storms Passing Through Lake Taal
(2000 – 2011)
The intensity of typhoons/ tropical storms that passed through Lake Taal is shown
in figure 5. Based on the figure, there is a decrease in intensity throughout the years
where 2006 had the highest intensity of 237.33 km/h, whereas the year 2011 had the
lowest with an intensity of 179 km/h.

Conclusion

T-test results has shown varying result between the air and water temperatures in
the Philippines and Taal Lake from the 10-year data. Moreover, Regression analysis
show that there is at least a small correlation between the variables. Although, statistical
analysis showed that no significant difference has occurred in the 10-year duration data
when comparing the Philippine air temperature and Taal Lake water temperature, the
relationship between the natural processes or factors such as temperature, rainfall, and
the number and intensity of typhoons or tropical storms suggest significant climate
changes. Thus, it can be deduced that to determine if climate change is occurring, larger
data is required for further interpretation.

Guide Questions

1. Using the results, you have generated above, are the temperature changes
in Lake Taal responding strongly to changes in the local air temperature?
What about the regional air temperature? How can you interpret the
statistical results you have obtained from the analysis?

Based on the results, linear regression was utilized to obtain the Pearson’s
coefficient, the results then states that there an inverse relationship between the
air temperature changes and local area temperature. However, this doesn’t garner
a strong response from Lake Taal, the relationship between the two (air
temperature and surface water temperature) isn’t something that could create
drastic change, rather, they are not a relationship that is of cause-and-effect. There
are many other factors that could possibly cause a certain change of temperature
and Lake Taal, such would be thermal power, constant movement of water,
irrigation systems and dams, etc.

2. How do lakes respond to changes in climate? Cite examples based on

studies that have been conducted on other lake ecosystems.

Climate change affects the physical, biological, and chemical features of lakes. An
effect of climate change is the lake’s water balance. Because of the shift in air
temperature and precipitation, there are lakes that have surface area decreased.
 For example, Lake Chad in Africa, its lake depth had reduced to 7 meters deep
because of the decrease in precipitation levels. In the biological aspect, the rising
of temperature also affects many fish species that would likely lead some species
to extinction like cold water species having their thermal tolerance reach its limit.

3. What are the negative impacts of increasing temperatures to aquatic

organisms? Cite three examples which show aquatic flora or fauna that are
negatively affected by increasing temperatures.

When water temperature increases, the dissolved oxygen and other gases in the
water decreases. This will affect the metabolic rates and biological processes
among aquatic organisms. One good example would be the corals. Increase in
temperature results in coral bleaching where zooxanthellae are expelled. The
zooxanthellae have the ability for photosynthesis thus providing the corals glucose,
amino acids, and glycerols for the production of proteins, carbohydrates, fats, and
calcium carbonate. This increase in temperature makes the water hot so it cannot
hold enough oxygen for the fishes’ survival. Increase in seawater temperature also
translates in increased disturbance like stronger extreme weathers and cyclones.
This physically damages the seagrass resulting the inability to photosynthesize.

4. Are there any noticeable trends in terms of rainfall in the vicinity and the
immediate area of Lake Taal?

Based on the data, annual mean rainfall has only shown drastic changes from
years 2007-2011. It can be observed that the amount of rainfall increased from the
year 2006 to 2009 and significantly dropped in the year 2010.

5. How do human activities contribute to climate change and how do they

compare with natural influences?

Human activities like the burning of fossil fuels greatly affect the number of
greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. The increase in the number of
greenhouse gases interferes with the incoming solar radiation and outgoing
thermal radiation which causes climate change. Compared with natural influences,
the human impact on climate change is far worse especially since the start of the
industrial era.

6. What is the role of methane in influencing increases in global temperatures?

What are the various sources of methane in the planet? Do you know of any
natural means of controlling the amount of methane?
 Methane contributes to the greenhouse effect that the Earth experiences. While it
is low in concentration compared to carbon dioxide, it effectively absorbs heat and
produces greater warming than carbon dioxide. Methane can be produced from
natural sources like wetlands, oceans, anaerobic decomposition, and animal
digestion. There are also manmade sources of methane emissions such as the
extraction of fossil fuels, landfills and wastes, biofuels, rice agriculture, and
biomass burning. One of the natural means to combat excess methane emission
is to plant more trees.

7. The Philippines is listed as one of the countries in the world most vulnerable
to climate change. Give at least five instances wherein one can see the
impacts brought about by climate change in the country.
● Drought in some parts of the country
● Aquatic organisms from deep waters seen in shallow waters or coastal
areas
● Super typhoons
● Extreme heat experienced during summer
● La Niña

References
Cheusheva S. (2018).Regression analysis in excel – the basics. Retrieved from:
https://www.ablebits.com/office-addins-blog/2018/08/01/linear-regression-analysis-
excel/
Forsgard, J. (2013). Higher temperature affects intensive rain showers. Retrieved from:
https://www.smhi.se/en/research/research-news/higher-temperatures-affect-
intensive-rain-showers-1.28948 on 16 February 2019.

Fondriest Environmental Inc. (2019). Water temperature. Retrieved from:

https://www.fondriest.com/environmental-measurements/parameters/water-
quality/water-temperature/ on 17 February 2019

J. Huang and H. M. Van Den Dool “Monthly precipitation-temperature relations and

temperature prediction over the United States,” Journal of Climate, vol. 6, no. 6, pp.
1111–1132, 1993.

Loo, Y. Y., Billa, L., & Singh, A. (2015). Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in
Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia.
Geoscience Frontiers, 6(6), 817-823.
May, S. (2014). What is Climate Change? Retrieved from:
https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/stories/nasa-knows/what-is-
climate-change-k4.html on 16 February 2019 on 25 February 2019

Statistics Solutions (2019). Paired Sample T-Test. Retrieved from:

https://www.statisticssolutions.com/manova-analysis-paired-sample-t-test/

Vincent, W.F. (2009). Effects of climate change on lakes. Retrieved from:

http://www.cen.ulaval.ca/warwickvincent/PDFfiles/229.pdf on 17 February 2019