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Biostatistics Collaboration of Australia

University of Sydney

Workplace Project Portfolio


Containing: Preface, Project Report I and Project Report II for
Units of study: WPPA and WPP B

Student name: Etel Mikes


Student ID: 0155584

Sydney, December 2006


To my mother Melanija Mikes and father Mihály Mikes
Abbreviations

AE Adverse event
AFT Accelerated failure time
CR Complete response
CRF Case report form
DSMB Data safety monitoring board
ECOG Eastern cooperative oncology group
ESMO European society for medical oncology
HER2 Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2
HT Study medication taken by patients in treatment groups A and B
LD Longest diameter
LVEF Left ventricular ejection fraction
PD Progressive disease
PH Proportional hazards
PR Partial response
RECIST Response evaluation criteria in solid tumors
SAS Statistical analysis system commercial software
SD Stable disease
STATA Commercial statistical software
TTP Time to progression
X Study medication taken by patients in treatment group A

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 WPP - Abbreviations


Workplace Project Portfolio

Preface

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 1 WPP - Preface


Table of Contents

1. CONTEXT OF THE PROJECT.....................................................................................................3

2. SCOPE OF WORK .........................................................................................................................3

3. REFLECTION ON THE LEARNING PROCESS .......................................................................4


3.1 RELATIONSHIP OF THE PORTFOLIO WORK TO COURSEWORK UNDERTAKEN .............................4
3.2 CHANGE IN KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS AS A RESULT OF UNDERTAKING THE PROJECTS ............5
3.3 LESSONS LEARNT........................................................................................................................5
4. ETHICAL CONSIDERATION........................................................................................................5

5. PROTECTION OF PROPRIETARY INFORMATION................................................................5

6. OTHER SOURCE OF ASSISTANCE ..........................................................................................6

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 2 WPP - Preface


1. Context of the project

The two workplace projects are tied to one clinical trial conducted in Roche Products
Pty Ltd looking at the efficacy and safety of HT with or without X in patients with
human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive advanced or metastatic
breast cancer:
The primary objective of this study was to compare the overall response rate of
patients randomized to HT with overall response rate of patients randomized to HT
plus X.

As a SAS programmer in Roche Products Pty Ltd, assigned to work on this Phase II
clinical trial, I was responsible for the creation of report objects required for abstract
preparation, manuscript writing and final statistical report. Working closely with the
statistician responsible for the study, and having gained theoretical background
during my coursework over the past few years, I had been given the opportunity to
take on additional tasks as part of my workplace projects in our Biostatistics
Department.

2. Scope of work

The first project encompassed the evaluation of the study data collection and
making sure that the available data are suitable for the planned statistical analyses. It
also evaluated the design of the study and the use of the Response evaluation
criteria in solid tumors (RECIST) in comparing the overall response in the two
treatment arms.

Since there were set timelines for the presentation of the first efficacy and safety
results of the clinical trial, I had to ensure that data collection, data cleaning and data
transfer processes are all well planned and coordinated. Given the remote location of
the statistics and data management team working on this clinical trial, communication
was a challenging task, mainly carried out by email, as well as teleconferences on a
regular basis for issues resolution.

The second project involved the selection of the appropriate statistical models for
the expanded analyses of the clinical trial data, writing the SAS code to perform the

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 3 WPP - Preface


analysis and interpreting the results obtained from the point of view of clinical
relevance.

The use of logistic regression in a real-life workplace setting example, which was part
of the second project, gave me an insight on how challenging it can be to try to
reliably interpret the possible effects of the covariates on a primary efficacy variable,
particularly when there are missing data, and also in the presence of confounding.

3. Reflection on the learning process

The workplace projects undertaken as part of this Portfolio provided me with the
opportunity to get hand on experience of what it means being involved in a range of
professional duties related to the design and analysis of clinical research.

Working in collaborative manner with the Data Management team, the first project
emphasized the development of communication and negotiation skills through team
work and activities like attending Study Management Team teleconferences and face
to face meetings.

The second project exposed me to the development and implementation of the


algorithms for the use of explorative techniques, and interpretation of the results of
the analyses.

3.1 Relationship of the portfolio work to coursework undertaken

The two projects I was involved in during the last eight months at my workplace are
mostly related to the Design of Experiments and Randomised Clinical Trials (DES),
Data Management and Statistical Computing (DMC), Survival Analysis (SVA),
Categorical Data and GLMs (CDA) units of study that I’ve undertaken in my
coursework.

By working on the projects defined for this unit of study, I realized how interrelated
are the many concepts acquired in different units of the coursework undertaken, and
how these different units of study like puzzles address different aspects of the same
clinical trial.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 4 WPP - Preface


3.2 Change in knowledge and skills as a result of undertaking the projects

Most of the practical examples and exercises during the graduate coursework were
done using the STATA software. I found it challenging but at the end rewarding to
learn and apply the theoretical knowledge that I’ve gained over years using the SAS
v8.2 software which is widely used at my workplace.

3.3 Lessons learnt

As part of my second workplace projects, for which I did not have time constraints
apart from the deadline to hand in the portfolio for this unit of study, I started on
several different things at a time. I got easily carried away with different approaches
and possibilities, and had not finished one thing before jumping onto something else.
At the end I realized that though it is interesting to do exploratory analysis, one has to
keep focused on the objective of the analysis in order to respect given timelines. This
is a lesson from which I can learn for future work projects.

4. Ethical consideration

This clinical trial was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki, and
International Good Clinical Practice principles as described in the International
Conference of Harmonization (ICH) guidelines for Good Clinical Practice, as well as
in accordance with all local ethical and regulatory requirements.

The projects undertaken as part of this portfolio were following the same principles of
confidentiality with respect to documentation related to the clinical trial and subject
records.

5. Protection of proprietary information

Some details related to the protocol, study conduct or results are omitted from this
portfolio for reasons of confidentiality.

Since the results of the clinical trial have not been presented yet to a wide audience,
and to protect proprietary information by the sponsor, the treatment information is

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 5 WPP - Preface


partially blind in this portfolio.

The above restriction should not affect the understanding of the concepts and
methods used during my workplace project work.

6. Other source of assistance

Apart from having regular consultations with Peter Button, the lead statistician for this
clinical trial who was also my supervisor for the workplace projects, I had a chance to
contact and consult colleagues from the Roche Welwyn office in UK, who had
experience with the use of the accelerated failure time (AFT) model for the analysis
of time-to-event data.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 6 WPP - Preface


Workplace Project Portfolio

Project Report I

Design and Data Management

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 1 WPP – Project Report I


Table of Contents

1. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ............................................................................................................3


1.1 BACKGROUND, RATIONALE FOR PROJECT .................................................................................3
1.2 AIM OF THE PROJECT ..................................................................................................................3
2. OVERVIEW OF STUDY DESIGN AND RELATED ISSUES ...................................................4
2.1 DATA-DEPENDENT STOPPING .....................................................................................................4
2.2 REFLECTION ON THE RECIST CRITERIA ....................................................................................6
3. EVALUATION OF DATA COLLECTION FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS..............................................................................................................................................8
3.1 OBTAINING DATA .........................................................................................................................8
3.2 CRF DESIGN ISSUES WITH THE DATA .........................................................................................9
4. DATA MANAGEMENT FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS.......11
4.1 EVALUATING THE AMOUNT OF DATA CLEANING NEEDED .........................................................12
4.2 TEAMWORK ...............................................................................................................................13
4.3 DATA CLEANING/MANIPULATION ...............................................................................................13
5. REPORT SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................14

6. REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................................14

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 2 WPP – Project Report I


1. Project description

This workplace project comprised of the evaluation of data collection and data
management on an open-label randomized phase II study of HT and X in
combination, versus HT, in patients with advanced and/or metastatic breast cancers
that overexpress HER2. This project was geared towards making sure that the
available data are suitable for the primary study analysis defined in the Analysis Plan
[1]. In this clinical trial, overall, 222 patients were enrolled and received study drug
from January 2002 to September 2005.

1.1 Background, rationale for project

The results of the primary efficacy analysis of the clinical trial investigating the
efficacy and safety of the triple combination of HT and X compared with HT as 1st-
line treatment for HER2-positive advanced/metastatic breast cancer, were to be
presented in Basel, Switzerland at the beginning of June 2006 for the first time to a
small audience consisting of Study Management Team, Clinical science leader,
International medical leaders and Documentation specialist.
Following this the results were to be used for presentation at the European Society
for Medical Oncology (ESMO) in September 2006.
The above milestones determined also quite strictly the timelines for this workplace
project.

Both biostatistics and data management activities for the study have been performed
by the Roche Basel teams until October 2005, at which time Roche Australia took
over the biostatistics activities – approximately six months prior to the planned
database lock.

1.2 Aim of the project

The aim of this project was to evaluate the data collection and data management
process that was undergoing in this study at the stage when our biostatistics team
took over the responsibility of data analysis for the final study reporting event, and to
give guidance and input into further practice. This project also took on coordinating
and giving advice about particular data collection and data management issues that
arose during the busy data cleaning period preceding the clinical cut-off date for the
primary study analysis.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 3 WPP – Project Report I


2. Overview of study design and related issues

The clinical trial I worked on as part of this workplace project was an open-label,
randomized, multi-center, comparative phase II study of HT administered
intravenously once every 3 weeks, with or without oral X administered twice-daily for
2 weeks followed by a 1 week rest period. Treatment in both arms will continue until
progressive disease, unmanageable toxicity or patient request.

Patient will be assessed for treatment response or disease progression according to


the schedule outlined in the following table until progression is documented.

Table 1. Overview of study design

Screening and Day 1 until After cycle 8 After one year 28 days after
Baseline Day progressive until disease from the last dose of
disease progression or enrollment study drug
one year from
enrollment
From -28 to +1 Drug treatment. Tumor Disease Safety follow-up
Tumor assessment assessment
assessment every 12 weeks according to
every 6 weeks routine practice
until disease
progression.
Survival status
until 18 months
after the last
patient enrolled

Clinical cut-off for the primary study analysis was six months after the last patient
enrolled. However, survival data will be collected until 18 months after the last patient
enrolled. These results will be reported a year later in an addendum to the study
report.

2.1 Data-dependent stopping

This clinical trial provided me with an example for understanding the methods and
rationale for determining whether a study should be stopped early [1]. This included
getting familiar with the role and findings of the Data and Safety Monitoring Board,

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 4 WPP – Project Report I


and the Interim Safety Report.

Recruitment on this Phase II clinical trial began in January 2002 and was suspended
in February 2003, after enrolment of 65 patients, following concerns from the Data
Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB).

Recruitment remained suspended for three months while follow-up safety data were
collected on the enrolled study population.

The study investigators were informed of the results of the Interim Safety Analysis
conducted in April 2003, (data cutoff for the 65 patients Safety analysis was April 7th
2003), and their awareness raised regarding the higher than expected incidence of
febrile neutropenia seen in the study.

After detailed assessment in June 2003, the DSMB were satisfied, and requested
amendments to the protocol and patient information sheet to address the findings.
The protocol changes were designed to ensure selection of patients better able to
tolerate the therapy, and monitoring the course of any neutropenia.

Following the amendments, the study was re-opened in June 2003.

The DSMB requested a further safety data review of the study when another 45
patients had been enrolled, giving a total of 110 patients, half the expected overall
recruitment.

Following the second Interim Safety Report, recruitment into the study continued as
of the end of June 2004.

In familiarizing myself with the project that I was assigned to, I had to make sure that
I understand the implications of the stopping and re-opening of the study. Protocol
amendment included changes to the eligibility criteria such as widening the inclusion
criteria for the enrollment of patients with lower Eastern cooperative oncology group
(ECOG) performance status, and excluding patients with dyspnea at rest due to
malignant or other diseases and patients on chronic concomitant steroids. Due to
such amendments the baseline characteristics of patients before and after stopping
were slightly different. We had to monitor whether these differences in baseline
characteristics of patients could potentially impact on the outcome. No such

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 5 WPP – Project Report I


difference was found. In addition, no hypothesis testing for efficacy was done during
the stopping and re-starting of the trial, and therefore there was no impact on the
alpha level for the final statistical analysis.

2.2 Reflection on the RECIST criteria

The primary measure of treatment efficacy was the overall tumor response rate.
Evaluation of target lesions and non-target lesions was in accordance with the
Response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (RECIST) [2].

To be able to work with the data collected for this clinical trial it was of importance to
understand the elements of the RECIST criteria for the measurement of tumor
response.

Evaluation of target lesions


All patients with measurable lesions (up to a maximum of 5 lesions per organ and 10
lesions in total), were identified as having target lesions. These lesions were
measured and recorded at baseline. Target lesions were selected on the basis of
their size (lesions with the longest diameter) and their suitability for accurate
repetitive measurements (either by imaging techniques or clinically). A sum of the
longest diameter (LD) for all target lesions was calculated and reported as the
baseline sum longest diameter. The baseline sum LD was be used as reference to
further characterize the objective tumor response of the measurable dimension of the
disease.
The evaluations of target lesions were determined by the following RECIST criteria.
Complete Response (CR): Disappearance of all target lesions
Partial Response (PR): At least a 30% decrease in the sum of the LD of target
lesions taking as reference the baseline sum longest diameter.
Stable Disease (SD): Neither sufficient shrinkage to qualify for PR nor sufficient
increase to quality for PD taking as references the smallest sum LD since the
treatment started.
Progression (PD): At least a 20% increase in the sum of LD of target lesions taking
as reference the smallest sum LD recorded since the treatment started or the
appearance of one or more new lesions.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 6 WPP – Project Report I


Evaluation of non-target lesions
All other lesions (or sites of disease) were identified as non-target lesions and were
also recorded at baseline. Measurements were not required, but the presence or
absence of each, were noted throughout follow-up.
The evaluations of non-target lesions were determined by the following RECIST
criteria.
Complete Response (CR): Disappearance of all non-target lesions and
normalization of tumor marker level.
Non-Complete Response: Persistence of one or more non-target lesions (non-CR)
or/and maintenance of tumor marker level above the normal limits.
Progression (PD): Appearance of one or more new lesions and/or unequivocal
progression of existing non-target lesions.

The following table shows how overall response is determined at each treatment
cycle, taking into account the tumor responses in target and non-target lesions and
the appearance of new lesions during that cycle.

Table 2. Overall response criteria at each treatment cycle

Target Lesions Non-Target New Lesions Overall Response


Lesions

CR CR No CR

CR Non-CR/Non-PD No PR

PR Non-PD No PR

SD Non-PD No SD

PD Any Yes or No PD

Any PD Yes or No PD

Any Any Yes PD

One of the problems of the definition that I see is that according to the study protocol,
partial and complete responses have to be confirmed at consecutive tumor
assessments at least 4 weeks apart in order to be considered as responses, whereas
confirmation of progressive disease is not required. A possible consequence of this is
also that without the confirmation of progressive disease, some patients could be
taken off study medication too early.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 7 WPP – Project Report I


My perception is that the use of RECIST criteria in this clinical trial yielded an
excessively conservative approach.

Another problem that I see is related to the definition of progressive disease for target
lesions itself. Though partial response is measured in relation to the baseline tumor
measurement, progressive disease is measured in relation to the smallest lesion at
any time during the study. According to this definition it could happen that the sum of
longest diameter at some tumor assessment during the study is smaller than the
baseline value, and the patient still to be classified based on this assessment as
having a progressive disease.

For example: baseline sum of longest diameter is 20 mm, value at cycle 4 is 10 mm,
and value at cycle 8 is 13 mm, which classifies as progression and as a
consequence the patient is being taken off the study drug without the confirmation of
the latest tumor measurement.

3. Evaluation of data collection from the perspective of statistical


analysis

The framework for data collection for this clinical trial was defined in the protocol to
ensure quality data at the end of the study.

As this particular clinical trial had protocol amendments mentioned in section 2.1
above, and since our biostatistics team in Dee Why took over the responsibility for
this study from our colleagues in Basel, Switzerland, an evaluation of data collection
was necessary.

3.1 Obtaining data

The study data for this clinical trial were collected on Case report forms (CRFs) and
entered into Oracle Clinical on a Unix platform.

Where possible, standard data definitions of variables commonly collected for


oncology studies at Roche were used.

The data collected in the Oracle Clinical database were mapped into SAS general

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 8 WPP – Project Report I


data models according to the data design specification. The following table lists the
SAS datasets holding all the data collected from CRFs

Table 3. SAS datasets created from collected data

SAS dataset Description of dataset


name
AE Adverse events and intercurrent illnesses
CENT Center and investigator information
COMT Comments
DEMO Demographic data
DIAG Previous or current diseases
DIED Data related to death of a patient
EFEX Efficacy data and special safety data
EXCL Data on exclusion from statistical analysis
EXIT Data on completion or premature termination
LABP Laboratory results
MEDO Treatments other than trial medication
MEDT Trial medication and adjuvant medication
TUMO Tumor assessment data

A regular overnight batch job of data transfer was set up between the Oracle Clinical
Administration side and the Biostatistic Computing Environment side stored on
different Unix platforms.

Additional information needed for the analysis was captured in value added datasets
for demography and efficacy variables.

Occasionally, upon request there were additional data transferred arranged. For the
receipt of the final snapshot data a special arrangement was made and the autocopy
lock procedure ensured that it will not be overwritten.

3.2 CRF design issues with the data

As mentioned already in section 2.1 above, this study had protocol amendments.
Each such amendment potentially implies changes in the data collection process and
consequently deviations from the originally designed CRF.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 9 WPP – Project Report I


One such example in this clinical trial was the protocol amendment related to the
extension of the follow up data collection period beyond the initial 17 cycles of study
drug intake. Due to delayed extended CRF design, printing and distribution, the data
were not recorded in a consistent manner by the investigators. Rectification of this
problem had to be addressed.
The solution to this data collection deficiency implied:

• Changes to the algorithm previously developed for the calculation of visit


windows, since days from baseline to assessments or treatment administration
have been judged to provide more meaningful reference to the treatment stage
than the cycle numbers recorded on the CRF pages. Given the inconsistent
recording of cycle information on the CRF, cycle numbers for tumor assessments,
study medication and physical exams were re-assigned according to the time
windows defined in the Table 4. This ensured that cycle events such as efficacy
and safety assessments were analysed at comparable times for all patients. In
case of physical exam measures, if more than one value was within a specific
time window, then the last value was used.

Table 4. Time windows for efficacy analyses

Visit Minimum Study Scheduled Study Maximum Study


Day Day Day
Screening/Baseline -999 -1 0
Cycle 1 1 1 14
Cycle 2 15 22 35
Cycle 3 36 43 56
Cycle 4 57 64 77
Cycle 5 78 85 98
Cycle 6 99 106 119
Cycle 7 120 127 140
Cycle 8 141 148 161
Cycle 9 162 169 182
… … … …
Continuing with this sequence for all cycles.

• Dealing with duplicate observations entered due to CRF pages entered twice.
After the protocol amendment a new CRF was created which included additional
pages for higher cycle numbers than the initially planned 17 cycles. Recording of
data for some patients already in the study continued on old CRFs, but in some
cases a new CRF form was filled out as well. In these situations we ended up
having the same data entered twice in the database. These data entry problems
have been identified and reported to the data management team. The database

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 10 WPP – Project Report I


also contained duplicate observations due to multiple or unscheduled
assessments. Duplicate assessments with same date and same value were
deleted in our programs.

• Programming additional Data Quality Checks in SAS to capture other possible


errors introduced by the additional cycle information collected. Examples of such
additional data checks are:
- visit date incorrect in relation to scheduled visit date
- last dose date not equal to last treatment date
- date of end of treatment before date of start of treatment
- AE resolution date missing when resolution reported on study completion
CRF page

4. Data Management from the perspective of statistical analysis

The scope of data management work during the conduct of a clinical trial is usually
defined at the beginning of the study conduct once the CRF design phase has been
finished.

For this clinical trial the requirements for data cleaning were defined in Data Review
Plan established by the Study Management Team [3]. To ensure appropriate actions
are taken in response to the review, the Data Review Plan lays out the requirements
defining:
• What data are to be reviewed
• Who reviews what
• The timing and frequency of the review
• The methods to be used for the review

The Data Review Plan is one of the components of a more comprehensive plan, the
Data Quality Plan which for this study includes the following information:
• Data listings used for review
• Protocol Violation, Deviation and Eligibility Rules
• Second pass data entry procedures

As the trial proceeds, data quality must be considered and maintained. For this study
a comprehensive validation check program was used to verify the data that were

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 11 WPP – Project Report I


entered into the study database. These data checks were defined and set up in the
Oracle Clinical Database Management System to run as on a daily basis. As a result
of these programmed validation checks, discrepancy reports were triggered for
review by investigators. Upon completion of study participation, patient’s data were
second-pass entered into the study database from the original, signed CRFs, and re-
run through the validation checks suite for any remaining discrepancies.

4.1 Evaluating the amount of data cleaning needed

The set of data validation checks defined by the Data Management at the beginning
of the study included a set of generic data consistency checks such as checks for
Demographic, Vital Signs and Adverse Events data, as well as study-specific
validation checks.

There were also validation checks defined outside the Oracle Clinical Database
Management system Some of these additional checks were generic data quality
checks programmed in SAS on the Unix operating system. Others were study-
specific statistical analysis oriented checks.

It is worth noting again here that all the above mentioned checks were defined much
earlier than our biostatistics team took over the responsibility for the statistical
analysis and reporting for the upcoming reporting event.

It was realized that the number of validation checks programmed over the course of
the study conduct built up to the point where discrepancy management required
excessive amount of time.

As part of my project I took the responsibility to identify the subset of relevant


validation checks to be run during the process of data cleaning that preceded the
database lock, thus saving unnecessary resources and achieving results within the
set timelines.

The evaluation of the number of relevant validation checks, and consequently the
amount of data cleaning needed was based on the safety parameters that were part
of our report objects, such as adverse event (AE) summaries by frequency counts,
contingency tables comparing the pattern of change for lab parameters, listings with
change from baseline for vital signs etc. It was equally based on the efficacy

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 12 WPP – Project Report I


parameters to be analysed and reported, involving tumor measurement information
and important dates for the overall response and time to event variables.

In the evaluation of data cleaning needed it was also important to evaluate the
resource availability and make appropriate decisions about resource allocation in
order to meet the set timelines.

4.2 Teamwork

Communication between the remotely located data management team and


biostatistics team was an important part of this workplace project.

I decided to use an Excel workbook as a base for the management of data issues
found using the validation checks programmed in SAS. It was a practical tool that
was owned by both parties: data management team in Basel, Switzerland and
biostatistics team in Dee Why, and as such was mutually maintained.

Important communication was achieved via regular teleconferences that have been
set up to resolve ongoing issues. These teleconferences were attended by wider
audience, including also clinical scientists providing us with important input for both
safety and efficacy data issues.

4.3 Data cleaning/manipulation

Though data review for quality should be an ongoing activity as data collection
proceeds, it is most important before database lock in time for reporting the results of
the clinical trial.

To meet the set deadlines it was important to correct the identified discrepancies in
timely manner. For the Data Manager it meant sending a list of errors back to the
person collecting the data for them to correct.

It happened also that for some reason the data could not be corrected. In that case
the data manager escalated the problem to the study management team which
decided what to do with the unresolved discrepancy. An approach to resolution of
such problems was to claim the discrepancy as irresolvable, properly document it
and leave it as it is. This implied that we in Statistics department had to make

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 13 WPP – Project Report I


allowance for possibly incorrect data and deal with them programmatically.

The realistic study management goal of meeting the data quality specification for this
clinical trial was met seven weeks after the clinical cut-off date, and the database
was locked and deemed ready for statistical analyses.

5. Report summary

Quality of data collection and data management activities are of high importance for
the accuracy of conclusions drawn from clinical trials.

Data management tasks are usually labor intensive and time consuming. The set of
validation checks defined to run on a study data should be carefully selected in order
to target the data relevant for statistical reporting. For that reason the statistician’s
contribution to the specification of the Data Quality Plan and review of Data Quality
Checks is very important at the early stage of the clinical trial conduct.

Data cleaning should be balanced out carefully between data quality and resource
availability without compromising the precision of the scientific results.

Electronic data capture, that is an emerging technology for data collection and data
management will also introduce a shift in the definition of relevant validation checks
for assuring that data are suitable for statistical analysis.

There will be always issues originating from data collection or data management
activities. In resolving those issues, well established and constant communication
between the data management and biostatistics department is of utmost importance.

6. References

1. Statistical Analysis Plan for protocol MO16419, Roche Products Pty Ltd, 18th April 2006; 7
2. Therasse P, Arbuck SG, Eisenhauer EA et al, New guideines to Evaluate the Response to
Treatment in Solid Tumors, Journal of the national Cancer Institute, Vol 92, No 3, Feb 2000;
206-209
3. SMT Data Review Plan for protocol MO16419, Roche Products Pty Ltd, 28th October 2002;
4-10

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 14 WPP – Project Report I


Workplace Project Portfolio

Project Report II

Analysis and Interpretation

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 1 WPP – Project Report II


Table of Contents

1. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ............................................................................................................3


1.1 BACKGROUND, RATIONALE FOR PROJECT .................................................................................3
1.2 AIM OF THE PROJECT ..................................................................................................................3
1.3 DATA MANAGEMENT ...................................................................................................................3
2. MAIN ANALYSES OF THE CLINICAL TRIAL DATA ..............................................................4

3. EXPANDED ANALYSES OF CLINICAL TRIAL DATA ...........................................................7


3.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ............................................................................................................8
3.2 EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF THE OVERALL TUMOR RESPONSE RATE ......................................9
3.3 EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF TIME TO PROGRESSION ..............................................................12
4. REPORT SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................18

5. REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................................19

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 2 WPP – Project Report II


1. Project description

This workplace project comprises of the exploratory analyses of data from an open-
label randomized phase II study of HT and X in combination (treatment A), versus H
plus T (treatment B), in patients with advanced and/or metastatic breast cancers that
overexpress HER2. Overall, 222 patients were enrolled from January 2002 to
September 2005 and received study drugs.

The exploratory analyses conducted as part of this workplace project have been
designed to complement (and extend) the analyses initially conducted to address the
primary and secondary objectives of the study. These analyses focus on logistic
regression of overall response and Cox regression on time to disease progression
with different potential prognostic factors explored in the models.

1.1 Background, rationale for project

The primary analyses of the data on this clinical trial were conducted according to the
written requirements specification and in preparation for presenting the first efficacy
results at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) in September 2006.

The clinical cut-off date for the protocol-defined primary study analysis was 6 months
after the last patient enrolled. The Statistical Analysis Plan for this study [1] also
suggests conducting expanded analysis in an exploratory manner. These analyses
were to be done after the primary analyses if indicated by the data, and as such
deemed to be a good choice for applying my theoretical knowledge and skills learnt
during the coursework in the field of multivariate analysis.

1.2 Aim of the project

After the analyses for the primary and secondary objectives of the clinical trial had
been completed, the aim of this project was to investigate the effects of various
possible baseline prognostic factors on the overall response rate and on the time to
disease progression (or tumor growth). [2].

1.3 Data Management

The data were managed by Roche Data Management in Basel, Switzerland. The
data were collected by CRF, entered into a database and verified by a series of

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 3 WPP – Project Report II


validation checks for which all relevant queries were resolved on an ongoing basis.
All discrepancies were reviewed and any resulting queries resolved with the study
centre in question and amended on the database.

This workplace project is based on the same data collected and cleaned for the
Project I of this Portfolio.

2. Main analyses of the clinical trial data

The primary and secondary efficacy endpoints of this clinical trial were the overall
response rate during the treatment period, time to disease progression and duration
of overall survival.

All efficacy analyses were done according to the intent-to-treat principle i.e as
randomized. All safety analyses related to adverse events and laboratory data were
done according to the treatment actually received. In this particular clinical trial these
two populations were in fact different (one patient randomized to A received
treatment B).

Primary efficacy endpoint


The protocol assumptions were response rate of 50% in comparator arm B, and 70%
in the experimental arm A. The number of patients required to observe 40% relative
increase in response rate was 220 (110 per arm). The calculation was based on a
chi-square test of no difference in response rate between treatment groups, with a 2-
sided significance level of 5% and 80% of power. The calculation allows for 5%
dropout rate.

Tumor response was assessed in terms of changes in the size of measurable


lesions.
The response levels have been determined as defined by the RECIST Criteria
outlined in more detail in Project I of this Portfolio. In case the response cannot be
calculated a non-response will be assumed following a conservative approach.
For each patient their best response according to the RECIST during the course of
the study was identified.
Best overall response (in later text referred to as overall response) for determining

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 4 WPP – Project Report II


tumor response rate for this study is defined as a confirmed complete response (CR)
or a confirmed partial response (PR) at any time point during the study.

The results of the primary efficacy analyses 6 months after last patient enrolled
showed a high response rate in both treatment regimens, as shown in the following
table.

Table 1. Tumor response rates

Treatment group A (n=112) Treatment group B (n=110)


Best overall response of CR or PR
79 (71%) 80 (73%)
Complete response
20 (18%) 16 (15%)
Partial response
59 (53%) 64 (58%)
Stable disease
28 (25%) 18 (16%)
Progressive disease
4 (4%) 10 (9%)
Not evaluable
1 (1%) 2 (2%)

In investigating whether one treatment regimen is superior to the other the chi-square
test was used yielding a statistically non-significant result (p=0.72).

Secondary efficacy endpoints


The analysis of time to progression and overall survival was based on the survivor
function, which is the probability of surviving or, more generally, staying event free
beyond a certain point in time. The time-to-event endpoints were summarized by
Kaplan-Meier plots.

To test the null hypothesis that there is no difference between the treatment groups
in the probability of an event at any time point the logrank test was used. This test is
most likely to detect a difference between the treatment groups when the risk of an
event is consistently greater for one group than another [4]. The logrank test is purely
a hypothesis test. It cannot provide an estimate of the size of the difference between
the groups or a confidence interval.

Time to progression was measured from the time of treatment commencement to


the time of disease progression. This was done in other studies with the same
compound and the same approach was adopted here in order that the results be

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 5 WPP – Project Report II


comparable. Patients who had not progressed at the time of study completion
(including patients who had died before progressive disease) or who were lost to
follow-up were censored at the most recent of the last tumor assessment or last drug
intake.

From, the following Kaplan-Meier plot and the logrank test result for the equality of
the survivor functions we can see that treatment A showed longer time to progression
compared with treatment B reaching statistical significance (p=0.045).

Table 2. Summary of the Cox regression for time to progression

Events in groups A and B Hazard Ratio 95% CI p-value


A : 55 B : 68 0.70 0.49, 0.10 0.047

The above results show that patients receiving treatment A are 70% of the risk of
having a disease progression than those receiving treatment B. The difference
proves to be marginally significant.

Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier curve of time to progression

Kaplan-Meier Curve of Time to Progression


1.00
Estimated Probability
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00

0 10 20 30 40 50
analysis time
(months)
group A group B

Overall survival was measured as the time from start of treatment to the date of
death, irrespective of the cause of death. Patients for whom no death was captured
on the clinical database were censored at the most recent date they were known to

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 6 WPP – Project Report II


be alive, either date of last tumor assessment, last drug intake or last follow-up
information.

Table 3. Summary of the Cox regression for overall survival (time to death)

Events in groups A and B Hazard Ratio 95% CI p-value


A : 25 B : 30 0.82 0.48, 1.39 0.47

The confidence interval of the hazard ratio for the overall survival includes the value
1. Therefore the inferred result of patients in group A being at 82% of the risk of dying
at any time point compared to group B is not a statistically significant result.

Figure 2. Kaplan-Meier curve of overall survival

Kaplan-Meier Curve of Overall Survival


1.00
Estimated Probability
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00

0 10 20 30 40 50
analysis time
(months)
group A group B

Having only reached 25% of events for the Overall survival time to event analysis, it
is too early to draw conclusions yet. Follow-up is ongoing and survival data will be
collected until 18 months after the last patient enrolled.

3. Expanded analyses of clinical trial data

The analysis population for the expanded analysis was the intent-to-treat population,
which included all patients who were randomized and received study medication at
least once. Groups are defined according to the study arm patients were randomized
to.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 7 WPP – Project Report II


The expanded analysis of the clinical trial data that was the focus of this project
consisted of two parts. The work done and the interpretation of results for each of
these parts are detailed in the following subsections.

3.1 Descriptive statistics

The covariates chosen for the secondary analysis of data are fixed covariates known
at baseline or entry to the study.

The following frequency tables look at the distribution of exploratory variables of


interest. The variables listed in the table, like age, number of target tumor sites and
Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status at baseline were
generated from the collected data and categorised for the purpose of this analysis.

Table 4. Summary statistics of categorical variables

Treatment group A Treatment group B


Covariates Category n=112 n=110
Age
<=50 1 46 (21%) 50 (23%)
>50 2 66 (30%) 60 (27%)
Number of target tumor sites
1 1 83 (37%) 84 (38%)
>=2 2 29 (13%) 26 (12%)
Adjuvant Anthracycline Therapy
no 1 64 (29%) 61 (27%)
yes 2 48 (22%) 49 (22%)
Liver metastases
no 0 72 (32%) 69 (31%)
yes 1 40 (18%) 41 (18%)
Lung metastases
no 0 71 (32%) 68 (31%)
yes 1 41 (18%) 42 (19%)
ECOG performance status
Fully active 0 69 (31%) 71 (32%)
Restricted in carrying out activity 1 43 (19%) 39 (18%)
Progesterone status
negative 0 61 (31%) 65 (33%)
positive 1 37 (19%) 32 (16%)
Disease status
locally advanced 0 16 (7%) 14 (6%)
metastatic 1 96 (43%) 96 (43%)

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 8 WPP – Project Report II


3.2 Exploratory analysis of the overall tumor response rate

With the aim of providing a prognostic model for the exploratory analysis of the
overall tumor response, the logistic regression was used.
The logistic regression model is based on the logit link function and is fit for binary or
ordinal response data by the method of maximum likelihood.

The overall response is the indicator variable with a value of 1 for a complete or
partial overall response, and 0 otherwise. I was modelling here the probability of
having an overall response.The model included nine (including treatment) variables
as risk factors thought to be related to the overall tumor response. These variables
are listed in table 4 above. In developing the logistic regression model, initially a
logistic regression was performed for each covariate separately adjusting only for the
possible treatment difference. The results of these regressions are shown in the
following table.

Table 5. Maximum likelihood estimates for individual parameters adjusted for


treatment

Wald test
Covariates df statistics p>Chi-square
Age 1 4.61 0.032
Number of target tumor sites 1 2.24 0.13
Adjuvant Anthracycline Therapy 1 1.81 0.18
Liver metastases 1 2.34 0.13
Lung metastases 1 1.88 0.17
ECOG performance status 1 2.09 0.15
Progesterone status 1 4.29 0.038
Disease status 1 1.14 0.29

Subsequently, in identifying the prognostic factors for the overall tumor response, the
stepwise multivariate logistic regression was used [3]. A significance level of 0.2 was
set to allow a variable into the model, and a significance level of 0.2 was set for a
variable to stay in the model. I chose these variable entry end removal levels to be
relatively large so that the selection of covariates into the model is not bound too
much by the usual 0.05 level of statistical significance.
The backward stepwise logistic regression procedure automates the removal of

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 9 WPP – Project Report II


variables one at a time, based on the smallest change in likelihood ratio tests when
refitting the model with one less variable. In other words, in one iteration, the
variable that contributed the smallest amount with its presence in the model is being
removed.
Setting 0.2 as entry and removal significance levels makes the forward and backward
elimination of variables essentially the same in this case. In the following section I
chose the forward stepwise logistic regression as a convenient way to summarise the
results.

Summary of stepwise logistic regression


In forward stepwise selection, an attempt is made to remove any insignificant
variable from the model before adding the next significant variable to the model
according to the set significant levels. After fitting the intercept-only model, the
intermediate model with the intercept term and the progesterone status variable is
fitted. The progesterone status remains significant (p=0.043 < 0.2) and is not
removed. Selection of potential variables continues the same way until none of the
remaining variables outside the models meets the entry criterion, and the stepwise
selection is terminated. The following table displays the results of the stepwise
selection.

Table 6. Results of the analysis of maximum likelihood estimates

Effect df Wald Chi-square p>Chi-square


Age 1 3.53 0.060
Number of target tumor sites 1 4.09 0.043
Adjuvant Anthracycline Therapy 1 1.96 0.16
ECOG performance status 1 2.51 0.11
Progesterone status 1 2.60 0.11
Disease status 1 4.82 0.028

Result of the likelihood ratio test for testing the joint significance of the explanatory
variables has a chi-square statistics of 17.67 with 6 df, yielding a statistically
significant result (p=0.0071).

For the evaluation of how well the model represents the data, the Hosmer and
Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test produced a value of 5.71 with df=8, indicating no
evidence of a poor fit (p=0.68).

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 10 WPP – Project Report II


I fit regression models with different combination of potential factors and interaction
terms to allow for effect modification of the overall model, but the best fit was
obtained by the model presented above. My conclusion was based on the goodness-
of fit test and the smaller Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). AIC is a function of log-
likelihood and the number of parameters in the model, and it can be used to compare
different models.

For the above analysis 27 observations were deleted form the analysis dataset due
to missing values for the progesterone status variable. The disposition of the
progesterone status levels including missing values relative to the overall response
variable is illustrated in the following table.

Table 7. Disposition of Progesterone status by Overall Response

Progesterone status
negative positive missing
responder 85 56 18
non-responder 41 13 9

Interpretation of results
Although the main analysis of the clinical trial data for the Overall tumor response did
not provide evidence of the difference in Overall tumor response between the two
treatment groups, exploratory analysis was conducted in order to look at possible
predictors of the Overall tumor response.

Of all the variables included in the model, age, number of target tumor sites and
disease status at baseline were significant at alpha=0.1 level, as shown in Table 6.

Table 8. shows the odds ratio estimates for the baseline predictors of the Overall
tumor response. We can see that the 95% confidence intervals for the odds ratios
for number of target lesions and disease status at baseline do not include 1 indicating
that the odds ratios are statistically significant at the 0.05 level. There are two other
factors, progesterone status and especially age category for which the odds ratio
confidence interval merely touches that borderline.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 11 WPP – Project Report II


Table 8. Odds ratio estimates for the predictor variables

Lower Higher Odds 95% Wald 95% Wald


Effect category category ratio* lower CI upper CI
Age <=50 >50 1.95 0.97 3.91
Number of target tumor sites 1 >=2 2.18 1.02 4.66
Adjuvant Anthracycline Therapy no yes 1.64 0.82 3.27
ECOG performance status fully active restricted in activity 1.75 0.88 3.50
Progesterone status negative positive 0.54 0.26 1.14
Disease status locally advanced metastatic 0.34 0.13 0.89

* Odds ratios >1 mean that patients in lower category have more chance of responding compared to
those in higher category

After this exploratory analysis, we see a trend backed by the odds ratio point
estimates that women under 50 years of age, having metastatic breast cancer with
only 1 target tumor site at baseline assessment and positive progesterone status
have better prognosis for overall tumor response.

One could ask a question (as I did in questioning whether the above given
interpretation is sensible in a clinical context): What is the reason that women with
positive progesterone receptor may respond better to the cancer treatment than
those with the negative hormone receptor? Usually negative test results mean
something good, but in this case the hormone receptor assay at baseline test shows
that if the receptors are present on the surface for the breast cancer cells, then the
cancer is likely to respond better to this particular type of therapy [5].

3.3 Exploratory analysis of time to progression

Cox regression model, the most commonly used multivariate approach for
analyzing survival time data in clinical research was used for the expanded analysis
of the secondary endpoint in this clinical trial.

The Cox regression model describes the relationship between the risk of an event, in
this case time to progression (TTP), and a set of covariates. It provides an estimate
of the hazard ratio and its confidence interval.

The assumption of the proportional hazards model is that the hazard of the event of
interest in one treatment group is a constant multiple of the hazard in the comparator
group. In this case the hazard ratio indicates the relative likelihood of progression
between the two treatment groups at any given point in time.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 12 WPP – Project Report II


Checking that a given model is an appropriate representation of the data is an
important step in the analysis [6]. There are various methods for verifying the
assumption of the proportional hazards (PH) model [7]. I used a graphical method
that plots the logarithm of the estimated cumulative hazard function for each
treatment group against the survival time.

The log-log plot is presented in Figure 3. The curves do not cross and the separation
between the two curves (one for each treatment group) is fairly constant with not
much deviation. This indicates that the PH assumption holds for these data.

Figure 3. Log(-Log(Survival) curves for TTP

The aim of the analysis is to investigate a collection of factors of known relevance for
their ability to predict time to progression. The covariates considered for the analysis
are the same as for the primary efficacy endpoint described in section 3.1 of this
Report (see table 4.)

The strategy used is the attempt to initially model all covariates, and then
subsequently fit the reduced model, provided the predictive ability of the model is not
compromised.

Table 9. contains the individual logrank test results for the variables considered for
the model. Each factor is assessed through separate univariate Cox regression. P

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 13 WPP – Project Report II


value of less than 0.05 means that time to progression is associated with the
individual covariate.

According to the logrank test for equality of survivor functions, the variables that are
associated with shorter time to progression are the following baseline assessments:
number of target tumor sites, prior anthracycline therapy for breast cancer, liver
metastases, lung metastases, ECOG performance status and disease status.
Table 9. Logrank test results for the potential predictor factors

Covariates df p>Chi-square
Age 1 0.39
Number of target tumor sites 1 0.017
Adjuvant Anthracycline Therapy 1 0.0055
Liver metastases 1 0.031
Lung metastases 1 0.0015
ECOG performance status 1 0.0002
Progesterone status 1 0.55
Disease status 1 0.0006

After fitting the initial full model with all the covariates included the following results
were obtained:

Table 10. Initial Cox regression results

Lower Higher Hazard Lower Upper


Factor category category ratio* p>|z| CI CI
Treatment A B 1.19 0.37 0.81 1.75
Age <=50 >50 1.46 0.068 0.97 2.19
Number of tumor sites 1 >=2 1.04 0.88 0.64 1.70
Adjuvant Anthracycline Therapy no yes 1.55 0.029 1.05 2.29
Liver metastates no yes 1.17 0.45 0.78 1.77
Lung metastates no yes 1.19 0.43 0.77 1.84
ECOG performance status fully active restricted in activity 2.02 0.001 1.36 3.01
Progesterone status negative positive 1.22 0.33 0.82 1.83
Disease status locally advanced metastatic 2.86 0.030 1.11 7.40

* Hazard ratios >1 mean that patients in lower category have reduced risk of progression compared to
those in higher category

According to the partial likelihood ratio test for the overall significance (G=36.66,
df=9, p<0.0001), we reject the null hypothesis, and conclude that overall the model is
significant. This means that one or more covariates in this model are significant

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 14 WPP – Project Report II


predictors of time to progression.

Looking at the individual Wald tests given in the output, the categorical variables age,
prior adjuvant anthracycline therapy, baseline ECOG performance status and
disease status are the ones contributing to the model at a 0.1 significance level.

I fitted than the reduced model, and the test for the significance of the variables
removed from the model (G=3.53, df=5, p=0.62) yields the conclusion that number of
target sites, liver or lung metastases and progesterone status are not significant
predictors of time to progression.

Interpretation of results
The factors: prior anthracycline therapy for breast cancer, ECOG performance status
and disease status at baseline are all significant determinants of time to progression.
The following table presents the hazard ratios and their confidence interval of the
factors contributing to the reduced model.

Table 11. Reduced model Cox regression results

Lower Higher Hazard Lower Upper


Factor category category ratio* p>|z| CI CI
Age <=50 >50 1.36 0.10 0.94 1.96
Adjuvant Anthracycline Therapy no yes 1.53 0.022 1.06 2.20
ECOG performance status fully active restricted in activity 1.82 0.001 1.26 2.62
Disease status locally advanced metastatic 2.69 0.013 1.23 5.88

* Hazard ratios >1 mean that patients in lower category have reduced risk of progression compared to
those in higher category

The hazard ratio derived from the Cox model must be interpreted with caution. It
does not translate directly into information about the duration of time until disease
progression. It may be used for purposes of statistical hypothesis testing and
indication of the amount of benefit (e.g. a decrease in odds of time to progression),
but other measures must also be applied to understand the full importance of the
study.

Median time to progression is also a useful parameter for interpreting effects [8]. The
following table lists the median time to progression in months for the prognostic
factors.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 15 WPP – Project Report II


Table 12. Median time to disease progression

Factor Lower category* Higher category* Median ratio


Age 15.2 12.9 1.18
Adjuvant Anthracycline Therapy 18.6 11.6 1.60
ECOG performance status 17.3 10.6 1.63
Disease status 38.4 12.9 2.98

* Categories of covariates are listed in Table 4.

Though the age category variable is not a statistically significant predictor, from the
above table we can see that women in the age group under 50 progress later, with
median time to progression 15.2 months for younger and 12.9 months for older
women.

Women who did not have prior anthracycline therapy for breast cancer have longer
median time to progression: the median duration for women in this category is 18.6
months which is significantly different from 11.6 months for women having prior
anhracycline therapy.

The effect of ECOG performance status is the strongest predictor in the model
according to the Cox regression: the median time to progression is 17.3 months for
women with performance status 0 and 10.6 for women with performance status 1 or
more.

Disease status has the largest hazard ratio according to the Cox regression results
as reported in Table 11, but with a fairly large confidence interval. The median time to
progression for the locally advanced cancer patients at baseline assessment is 38.4
months compared to 12.9 months for the women with a metastatic breast cancer at
the start of the clinical trial.

As can be seen from comparing the hazard ratio estimates in Table 11 with the
median ratio estimates in Table 12, the hazard ratio estimates for our data are
consistent with median ratios, and hence they are a reliable measure of the
association of the prognostic factors with the time to disease progression.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 16 WPP – Project Report II


The Accelerated failure time (AFT) model is an alternative to the PH model for the
analysis of time-to-event data.
As opposed to the PH model which expresses treatment differences in terms of the
risk of the event of interest in any given time, the AFT model expresses treatment
differences in terms of a direct effect on time. In other words in the AFT approach the
survival probability in group 1 at time t is equal to the survival probability in group 2 at
some multiple of time.

To assess whether the AFT model is suitable for the data we can plot the percentiles
of the KM estimated survivor function from one treatment group against the other. If
the model is appropriate, this would approximate to a straight line through the origin.

According to the regression results, the slope of the fitted straight line is 1.57
providing an unadjusted estimate of the multiplicative factor of 0.97, indicating that
the time to progression probability for a patient in treatment group A at time t is equal
to the survival probability in group B at time 0.97 t.

However since the Quantile-Quantile (QQ) plot in Figure 3. does not approximate
well enough to a straight line from the origin, the AFT model might not be suitable for
these data, and hence the results obtained might not provide a reliable estimate of
treatment differences. For this reason, and also because of time constraints, I did not
consider exploring further this approach during my project work.

Figure 4. Quantile-Quantile plot for TTP

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 17 WPP – Project Report II


Accelerated failure time model is a particularly useful model when the event rate is
high, and as such might be reconsidered for use for the next reporting event at the
end of the follow up period.

4. Report summary

Although the clinical trial was unsuccessful in providing statistically significant result
for the overall tumor response in favor of the experimental treatment regiment, it
showed a high (above 70%) overall tumor response rate in both treatment arms.

Time to progression, measured from time to start of treatment to time to disease


progression defined by the RECIST criteria, was shown to be significantly longer in
the experimental treatment arm.

Further analyses investigated the effects of various possible baseline prognostic


factors on the overall response and on time to disease progression.

The Logistic regression of overall response on several baseline characteristics


showed that younger women with a smaller number of target tumor sites at baseline
have better chance of responding to treatment. It also reveals that women being
categorized as having metastatic breast cancer at the start of the study have better
overall response than women having locally advanced breast cancer. This latter
finding is rather unexpected, and raises further questions about the response criteria
determined by the RECIST.

The proportional hazard model applied for the analysis of time to progression showed
the existence of association between shorter time to progression and age under 50,
no prior adjuvant anthracycline therapy, fully active ECOG performance status and
locally advanced breast cancer at baseline.

This randomized clinical trial will continue to collect follow up data on the same study
population, and it will be interesting to see the results of overall survival in order to
draw other possible conclusions.

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 18 WPP – Project Report II


5. References

1. Statistical Analysis Plan for protocol MO16419, Roche Products Pty Ltd, 18th April 2006;
16-17
2. Clinical Study Protocol, Protocol number MO16419D, Roche Products Pty Ltd, 26th April
2005; 75
3. SAS/STAT User’s Guide Version 8, Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc., 1999, Volume 2; 1975-
1988
4. Bland MJ, Altman DG, The logrank test, BMJ 2004; 328(7447) 1073
5. Are hormone receptors present?, breastcancer.org,
http://www.breastcancer.org/dia_pict_hormone.html
6. Bradburn MJ, Clark TG, Love SB, Altman DG, Survival Analysis Part III: Multivariate data
analysis - choosing a model and assessing its adequacy and fit, British Journal of Cancer
(2003) 89: 605-611
7. Patel K, Kay R, Rowell L, Comparing proportional hazards and accelerated failure time
models: an application in influenza, Pharmaceutical Statistics, 2006; 5: 213-224
8. Squance SL, Reid JE, Grace M, Samore M, Hazard Ratio in Clincial Trials, Antimicrobial
Agents and Chemotherapy, Aug 2004, 2787-2792

Student: Etel Mikes ID: 0155584 19 WPP – Project Report II

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