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(GIAA IJ)
New captain on board
Consensus OP (17F, IDRtr) 1.4 Cargo revenue continued its strong performance, with the FSC servicing
90,500 tonnes (+21.6% YoY) and the LCC 17,900 tonnes (+13.5% YoY). Amid tight
EPS Growth (17F, %) 250.0 competition to fill seats in the passenger segment, Garuda appears to be
P/E (17F, x) 25.6 continuing its strategic focus on cargo segment penetration.
Industry P/E (17F, x) 14.2
Benchmark P/E (17F, x) 16.2 Higher fuel prices and increased ASK (greater fuel burn) put increased pressure
Market Cap (IDRbn) 9,526.3
on CASK. The FSC’s CASK inched up 4.3% YoY to USc6.1, while the LCC’s CASK
increased 14.2% YoY to USc4.9. However, considering that the average
Shares Outstanding (mn) 25,886.6 Singapore jet fuel swap price in 1Q17 jumped 48.1% YoY to USD64.5/bbl, we
Free Float (mn) 3,862.1 think fuel prices were well managed (e.g., hedging strategy). Going forward, the
Institutional Ownership (%) 85.9 extension of OPEC/non-OPEC crude oil supply cuts should be the near-term
Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 1.1 price driver.
52-Week Low (IDR) 320
52-Week High (IDR) 520 Garuda’s financials are below break-even
GIAA has yet to reach the break-even point, based on our analysis. From a
(%) 1M 6M 12M
contribution margin angle, we find that GIAA is generating insufficient revenue to
Absolute 7.0 -2.1 -16.9
cover its fixed costs. See our analysis on the next page of this report.
Relative 5.3 -7.0 -34.4
Positive on new CEO; Upgrade to Buy
(D-1yr=100) JCI GIAA
130 Mr. Pahala Nugraha Mansury was recently appointed as the new CEO of Garuda
Indonesia. Given his longstanding experience as CFO with Bank Mandiri
95 (BMRI/Hold/TP: IDR11,380), we expect Mr. Mansury to prudently assess the
financials of GIAA and add stability. As earnings volatility is one of the airline’s key
60 discount factors, we believe greater earnings stability/clarity should lift the
10/16
11/16
12/16
4/16
1/17
5/16
6/16
7/16
8/16
9/16
2/17
3/17
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
May 2, 2017 Garuda Indonesia
Given limited information available, we use our own assumptions in deriving Garuda Indonesia’s contribution margin
(revenue – variable expenses). To break down operating expenses, we assume fuel (flight operations), commissions and
reservations (ticketing, sales and promotion), maintenance and overhaul, spare parts and fuel (maintenance and
overhaul), passenger service (passenger service), aircraft and flight services and ground handling (user charges and
station) to be variable expenses. We assume the rest of the expenses to be fixed expenses. The analysis below (see Table
3) is conducted to illustrate the importance of revenue generation and cost management.
Variable costs vary in total directly and proportionately with changes in the airline’s
activity. For Garuda to generate a higher contribution margin, it would need to
generate higher revenue. However, the key challenge is heightened competition. As
the airline industry is getting overheated (as evidenced by Garuda’s falling passenger
yield), we think management needs to implement a prudent strategy to enhance
revenue. In our view, the airline should revisit its strategy of sacrificing P
(margins/ASP) for Q (passenger volume/market share), given that passenger volume
(average household demand) is unlikely to pick up significantly in the near term.
The other alternative to improving bottom line is to take a microscopic view of fixed
costs. Fixed costs are costs that remain the same in total regardless of changes in
activity level. Hence, cost management (i.e., improved efficiency) should be actively
implemented on the fixed-cost side of the equation.
We note that aircraft and charter (flight operations) is the largest single expense
item, accounting for 50.2% of total fixed expenses (as of 2016). Hence, we strongly
believe Garuda Indonesia should prioritize aircraft and charter efficiency over other
fixed expenses. Related to this, we are encouraged by the fact that management is
looking to add only three new aircraft this year, which should ease investor concerns
over inflated aircraft and charter expenses going forward.
Table 2. Aircraft and charter expense is the largest single fixed expense (USD thousand)
2014 2015 2016
Fixed expenses 1,827,365.2 1,868,709.5 2,016,767.5
Flight operations 1,001,982.7 1,140,787.5 1,262,664.4
Aircraft and charter 765,872.8 904,774.8 1,011,777.2
Aircraft and charter expense to total fixed expenses 41.9% 48.4% 50.2%
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
In 2016, the airline would have incurred a sizeable pickup in fixed expenses if not for
employee benefit adjustments, pulling bottom-line earnings into the red.
Table 3. Garuda’s contribution margin is lower than its fixed expenses (USDthousand)
2014 2015 2016
Revenue 3,933,530 3,814,990 3,863,922
Mr. Mansury made significant contributions during his tenure at Bank Mandiri. In 2013, he
won the “Best CFO in Indonesia” award in Southeast Asia, as surveyed by the Institutional
Investor Corporate Awards. Bank Mandiri also won several awards at the same event thanks
in large part to Mr. Mansury’s contributions. In 1Q13, he helped Bank Mandiri achieve loan
disbursement of IDR391.6tr, a 19.7% YoY improvement from the same period of 2012
(IDR327.2tr).
Mr. Mansury graduated from the University of Indonesia with a BSc in Accounting and later
received his MBA in Finance from Stern School of Business, New York University. He started
his career as a change management consultant with Andersen Consulting, based in Jakarta.
Later, he joined Booz Allen & Hamilton as a senior consultant for a year and soon moved to
Boston Consulting Group. He was promoted as a Project Leader in several banking projects
until 2003.
According to the statement from Mr. Gatot Trihargo (Deputy Assistant in Ministry of SoE),
one of the key reasons for the appointment of Mr. Mansury as the new President Director of
Garuda Indonesia is Garuda’s need for a figure who can handle the airline’s financial and
operational affairs. We firmly believe Mr. Mansury has the qualifications, experience, and
insights to take the airline to greater heights.
Figure 2. 12M Forward P/B trend (Current share price represents 36.2% discount to 5yr average)
(x)
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
Avg 12MF P/B: 1.01x
1.0
0.8
0.6 0.64x
0.4
0.2
0.0
1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
10 8
7
8
6
6
5
4 4
4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
CASK-ex fuel 35
8
200
30
7
52 55
44
36 25
150
6
30 33 36 34 20
30
5
100 21 24 15
4 17
10
50 103 110 108 110
3 86
68 5
2 0 0
4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
APPENDIX 1
Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and
do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.
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responsible for this report. PT. Mirae Asset Seukritas Indonesia (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their
households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or
advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any
other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of
the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report
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time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or
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