08 Condorcet Schita Eng PDF

Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind: Tenth Epoch
Author(s): Condorcet and Keith Michael Baker

Source: Daedalus, Vol. 133, No. 3, On Progress (Summer, 2004), pp. 65-82
Published by: MIT Press on behalf of American Academy of Arts & Sciences
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20027931
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Condorcet
Sketchfor aHistorical Picture of theProgress

of theHuman Mind: Tenth Epoch
Translated by Keith Michael Baker
Translator's Note: There is still no definitive mind) or topowers arising from their exercise.
or critical edition I have used faculties'for theformer,
of Condorcet's "Esquisse 'capaci
d'un tableau historique des progr?s de l'esprit ties'for the latter. Finally, likemost eigh
humain," or of the other parts of thework for teenth-century writers, Condorcet generally
which itwas intended as an introduction. The uses the
singular and plural forms of 'homme'
text published posthumously in 1795 contains to refer genetically to human beings. Where
additions to the extant manuscript that were possible without contortion, I have used gen
presumably made by the author before his der-free language in translating these terms.
death. The standard edition of Condorcet's Please also note that the section breaks that
collected works, "Oeuvres de Condorcet" appear in this translation are my own.
(edited by A. Condorcet O'Connor and M. F. I wish to express thanks to Emma Roth
Arago, 12 vols. [Paris:FirminDidotfr?res, schildfor helpfulcommentson a draft of this

1847 -1849]), reprints the text of 1795 with translation.
many minor changes; it also includes substan
tialfragments from the larger work. I have
followed the edition of the "Esquisse" by If we can predict phenomena with al
O. H. Prior (Paris: Boivin, 1933; republished most complete confidence when we
with an introduction by Yvon Belavel [Paris: know their laws, and if, even when we
f. Vrin, 1970]), which uses the text as pub are ignorant of these laws, past experi
lished by Arago and O 'Connor, placing in ence allows us to future events
anticipate
square brackets passages from the 1795 edition with a great degree of probability, why
that do not appear in the extant manuscript. should it seem an impossible undertak
Several of the choices I have made as trans
ing to project the future destiny of the
lator should be mentioned. In current English, human species with some plausibility
the term 'perfectibility' and its close cognates from the results of its history? The only
seem to carry a stronger implication of abso basis for belief in the natural sciences is
lute perfection than they do in eighteenth-cen the idea that, whether we know them or
tury French. In most cases, I have found terms not, the general laws governing the phe
' '
like 'ameliorability, 'amelioration, and 'bet nomena of the universe are necessary
terment' closer to Condorcet's intended mean and constant. Why should this same
ing. The French term facult?s also presents a principle be less true for the develop
question : it can refer, as inEnglish, to capa ment of the intellectual and moral ca
bilitieswith which an individualisphysically pacities of humankind than for other
endowed (e.g., sight or operations of the natural In short, since judg
processes?
D dalus Summer 2004 65
Condorcet ments on past of and industry without
on grounded experience entailing depend
like events are the sole rule of conduct ence, humiliation, or
impoverishment?
progress
for the wisest individuals, why shouldn't In other words, will human beings ad
a be permitted to base his vance toward a situation in which all will
philosopher
on this same foundation, have the knowledge necessary to act ac
conjectures
provided he attributes to them a certain cording to their own reason in the com
ty no greater than can be sustained by mon affairs of life, to remain free of
prej
the number, consistency, and precision udices, and to comprehend their rights
of his observations ? and exercise them according to their
Our hopes for the future condition of judgment and their conscience? Will
the human species can be reduced to they approach that state in which all will
three important points :the destruction be able to secure the means of providing
of inequality among nations ; the prog for their needs, and in which stupidity
ress of equality within each people ;and and misery will at last be only accidental
the real betterment of humankind. Will rather than the habitual condition of
all nations necessarily one part of society?
approach
day the state of civilization achieved by Might it also be the case that the hu
those peoples who are most enlightened, man species will
necessarily better itself
freest, and most emancipated from prej new discoveries in the sciences
through
udice, such as the French and the and the arts and, as an inevitable conse
Anglo
Americans ?Will we necessarily see the quence, in the means of individual well
gradual disappearance of that vast dis being and common prosperity; through
tance now separating these peoples progress in the principles of conduct and
from the servitude of nations the practice of morality; or
subjected through opti
to kings, the barbarism of African tribes, mization of the intellectual, moral, and
the ignorance of savages ? physical capacities that may result from
Are there regions of the globe where improving the instruments that intensify
the inhabitants have been condemned these capacities and guide their use, or
their environment never to enjoy lib even the natural constitution of human
by
erty, never to exercise their reason? kind?
Do the differences in enlightenment, In answering these three questions, we
resources, or wealth so far observed be will find that past experience, observa
tween the different classes within civi tion of the progress made so far
by the
- sciences
lized peoples the inequality that the and by civilization, and analysis
initial advances of society augmented of the advance of the human mind and
-
and may even have produced derive the development of its capacities yield
from the very nature of civilization or the strongest grounds for believing that
from the current imperfections of the nature has set no limit to our hopes.
social art? Must these differences con
to the real
tinually diminish, giving way l\ glance at the present state of the
that is the ultimate of the in the
equality goal globe reveals, first place, that the
social art, that of reducing the very ef of the French Constitution are
principles
fects of natural differences in individual
accepted already by every enlightened
capacities while allowing for the contin person. We see these principles now too
uation only of an inequality useful to the and too firmly professed for
widespread
common interest because itwill foster the efforts of tyrants and priests to pre
the progress of civilization, education, vent their gradually penetrating the huts
66 D dalus Summer 2004
soon re that has Sketchfor
of the enslaved, where they will stroy the shameful exploitation a Historical
awaken the vestiges of good sense and corrupted and depopulated that conti Picture of
the silent indignation that constant hu nent for two centuries. the Progress
miliation and terror fail to stifle in the Already, in Great Britain, friends of of the
Human
soul of the oppressed. humanity haveset an example ;and if
Mind
In considering different nations, we the Machiavellian government of this
shall see in each one the ob country, forced to respect public reason,
particular
stacles opposing this revolution or the has not dared oppose it, what can we not
same once a ser
conditions favoring it.We shall identify expect from this spirit
those nations in which itwill be brought vile and corrupt constitution has been
about peacefully by the perhaps belated reformed and rendered worthy of a hu
wisdom of their governments, and those mane and generous nation? Will France
in which itwill be rendered more violent not hasten to imitate these undertakings
by the resistance of governments that dictated in equal measure by philanthro

will inevitably be swept up in its terrible py and European interests properly un
and rapid upheavals. derstood? Spice production has been
Can there be any doubt that good introduced in the French islands, in Gui
sense or the absurd divisions among the ana, and in some English possessions,
European nations will further the slow and one will soon see the collapse of the
but inevitable effects of the progress of monopoly in this trade the Dutch have
their colonies, soon in the in maintained so many ag
resulting by betrayals,
dependence of theNew World ?Or gressions, and crimes. These European
that the European population, rapidly nations will finally learn that exclusive
over this immense are a form of tax
increasing territory, trading companies only
will civilize or cause the disappearance, imposed
on them to
give their govern
even without conquest, of the savage ments a new instrument of tyranny.
nations that still occupy vast regions of Then the European peoples, limiting
it? themselves to free commerce, and too
Review the history of our enterprises enlightened regarding their own
rights
and settlements in Africa and Asia and to disregard those of other peoples, will
you will see our commercial monopo respect the independence they have
lies, our betrayals, our bloodthirsty con hitherto violated so
arrogantly. Their
tempt for of another color or settlements will no longer be filled with
people
creed, the insolence of our usurpations, government favorites profiting from a
and the extravagant or the or a as rush to accu
proselytizing place privilege they
intrigues of our priests destroying the mulate a treasure or
through brigandage
sentiment of respect and goodwill ini treachery in order to get back to Europe
tially inspired by the superiority of our to buy titles and honors. Instead, they
knowledge and the benefits of our com will be populated by industrious persons
traveling to these beneficent climates in
merce.
But the moment is surely approaching search of the prosperity that has eluded
when we shall stop to them them in their own country. Liberty will
appearing
as corruptors and tyrants and be hold these individuals there and ambi
only
come their useful instruments or gener tion will no longer draw them home. As
ous liberators. a result, these outposts for bandits will
Sugar cultivation, as it is established in become colonies of citizens spreading to
the immense African continent, will de Africa and Asia the principles and prac
acquired good sense of the
Condorcet tices of European the newly
on liberty, knowledge,
and reason. In place of the monks who European nations or from their obsti
progress
these peoples nothing but nate attachment to their commercial
brought
shameful superstition, filling them with prejudices.
revulsion against the threat of a new We shall demonstrate that a new Tar
domination, we shall see individuals tar invasion from Asia is the only cir
disseminating among these nations the cumstance that could prevent this revo
truths useful to their happiness and en lution, and that such an event is no lon
lightening them as to their interests and ger possible. In the meantime, every
their rights. Zeal for truth is also a pas thing is leading to the prompt collapse
sion, and itwill extend its efforts to dis of the great religions of the East. Aban
tant regions when it no longer sees itself doned almost everywhere to the people,
surrounded at shorter range by gross infected by the degradation of their min
to combat and shameful er isters, and already viewed by powerful
prejudices
rors to dissipate. men in some countries as mere
political
In these vast regions there are numer inventions, these religions no longer
ous
peoples who
seem to be waiting only threaten to keep human reason hope
to receive from us the means to become lessly enslaved and in eternal infancy.
civilized, only to find brothers among The advance of these peoples should
Europeans and to become their friends be more rapid and assured than ours be
and disciples. There are nations under cause should receive from us what
they
the yoke of sacred despots or benighted we have had to discover, and because
conquerors who have been crying out for they should only need to be able to fol
liberators for so many centuries. There low the explanations and proofs we offer
are still almost savage tribes held back orally and in books to grasp the simple
from the enjoyments of civilization truths and certain methods we have at
by
the harshness of their climate, which in tained only after long error. If the prog
turn deters those who would like to ac ress accomplished was
by the Greeks
lost to other nations, we must blame a
quaint them with these benefits. There
are conquering hordes that know no law lack of communication among peoples
but force, nor occupation but brigand and the tyrannical domination of the
age. The progress of the latter two Romans. But once mutual needs have
; it is once the
groups will be slower and stormier brought all humanity together;
even possible that their numbers will most powerful nations have included
diminish as they find themselves among their political principles a com
pushed
back by the civilized nations, and that mitment to equality among societies as
they will end up gradually disappearing, among individuals, respect for the inde
or
being lost in the midst of these pendence of weaker states, and a hu
nations. mane concern for ignorance and misery;
We shall show how these develop and once maxims fostering the action
ments will be an ineluctable result, not and energies of human faculties replace
only of European progress but also of those tending to inhibit them, will it
the liberty that the French and North then still be possible to fear that parts of
American republics have both the real the globe remain inaccessible to enlight
interest and the power to bring to Afri enment, or that the pride of despotism
can and Asian commerce, and how they can oppose to the truth barriers that will
must necessarily spring either from remain insurmountable for very long?
The time will therefore come when the more direct and disastrous vio Sketchfor
mitting a Historical
sun shines on free human lations of human rights.
only beings Picture
of
who recognize no other master but their It is easy to prove that there is a natu the Progress
reason when
; tyrants and slaves, priests ral tendency toward equality of wealth, of the
Human
and their benighted or min and that an excessive disproportion
hypocritical Mind
ions exist only in the history books and among fortunes cannot exist, or must
the theater, and our only concern with quickly come to
an end, unless civil laws
them is to pity their victims and their establish artificial means of perpetuating
a useful
dupes, maintain vigilance moti and combining them. Inequality will di
vated by horror at their excesses, and minish if liberty of commerce and in
know how to recognize and stifle, by the dustry destroys the advantage that any
weight of reason, the first seeds of super restrictive law or fiscal privilege confers
stition and tyranny that ever dare to re on accumulated wealth ; if taxes on con
appear.
tracts and agreements, restrictions on
their freedom, their subjection to cum
in reviewing the history of societies, we bersome formalities, and, finally, the un
will have occasion to show that there is certainty and obligatory cost of securing
often a great gap between the rights the their execution do not impede the activi
law recognizes as
belonging to citizens ty of the poor and swallow up their
and the rights they actually enjoy, be skimpy capital. Itwill diminish provided
tween the equality established public administration does not open to
by politi
cal institutions and that existing among some citizens abundant sources of opu
individuals. We shall point out that this lence that are closed to others ;provided
was one of the
principal
causes of the prejudices and the spirit of avarice we
destruction of liberty in the ancient re associate with old age do not govern
publics, the upheavals that disrupted marriage arrangements. And itwill di

them, and the weakness that delivered minish if simplicity of manners and wise
institutions make wealth no
them over to foreign tyrants. longer the
These disparities have three principal means of or ambition -
satisfying vanity
a
causes: inequality of wealth;
inequality without, however, issuing in misguid
of condition between the individual who ed austerity that prevents its use in the
has assured means of subsistence trans search for life's enjoyments and as a re
missible to his family and the individual source for them once they
preserving
for whom these means depend on his have been obtained.
Turn to the enlightened European na
lifespan or, rather, on the length of time
tions and compare the current size of
during which he is able to work ;and
finally, inequality of instruction. their populations with the extent of their
Itwill therefore be necessary to show territories. Note the distribution of work
that these three kinds of real inequality and of the means of subsistence obtain
-
must diminish continuously without, ing in their agriculture and industry. We
however, being completely eliminated. shall see that itwould be impossible to
at this same -
For they have natural and necessary keep subsistence level and
causes which itwould be absurd and hence, necessarily, impossible to main
tain the same population -
dangerous to try to destroy; and one size if a great
could not even attempt to eliminate number of individuals ceased to rely al
most entirely for their needs, and those
their effects without opening up more
sources of inequality and com of their family, on their and the
potent industry
in acquir yet to the extent and in the variety of
Condorcet from any capital invested
on
yield
ing it or
making itmore
productive. Yet forms that would make them really use
progress
of either of these resources ful, not simply to a few individuals but
preservation
on the life and even the health to the entire mass of the society they
depends
of the head of each family; it becomes would free from that periodic ruin of a
an income or is an
subject to his life chances, great number of families which
even more contingent than that. It fol ever-recurring source of corruption and
lows that there is a very real difference misery.
between the class of people in this situa We shall explain that institutional ar
tion and the class of those whose re rangements of this kind can be formed
sources are not subject to the same risks the social power and become one of
by
because their needs are supplied either its greatest benefits, but can also be cre
revenue from land or on ated by private associations which will
by by interest
almost independent of their in be formed safely once the principles gov
capital
dustry. erning the organization of such institu
There is therefore a necessary cause tions have become more widely known
of inequality, dependence, even misery, and the errors that have destroyed a
are no
which ceaselessly threatens the most great number of them longer to
numerous and most active class in our be feared.
societies. [We shall set forth other means of se
We shall show that this cause can be curing equality, whether by ensuring
destroyed in large part by opposing that credit ceases to be a privilege so ex
chance to chance itself: by guaranteeing clusively reserved for great wealth but
to someone who reaches old age assis retains a no less solid foundation, or
by
own sav industrial and commer
tance that is produced by his making progress
those of individuals cial activity less dependent on the exis
ings, augmented by
who contributedin the same way but tence of great capitalists. We will owe
died before needing to harvest the ben these means, too, to the application of
efits ;by using the same principle of mathematical methods. ]
to women and The of instruction one can
compensation provide equality
children who lose a husband or father hope to attain, and which should be suf
with a similar income acquired at the ficient, would exclude all dependence,
same cost, whether it be for families af whether forced or voluntary. We shall
flicted by a premature death or for those demonstrate that the present state of hu
whose head survives longer; or even by man allows easy means of
knowledge
at this goal, even for those indi
building up for children who attain the arriving
and to start viduals able to study only for a small
age to work for themselves,
a new family, the benefit of a capital number of their early years, and for a
necessary to the development of their few leisure hours during the rest of their
industry,
a sum that will have increased life. We shall show that a good choice of
at the expense of those prevented by pre the knowledge to be taught, and of the
mature death from reaching this point. methods for teaching it, will make possi
We owe the idea of these methods to the ble the instruction of an entire people in
of mathematical calculation one needs to know to manage
application everything
to the probabilities of life and to finan a household, administer one's affairs,
cial investment, and they have already and freely develop one's industry and
been employed though not one's capacities; to know, defend, and
successfully,
exercise one's to learn one's du share it, existing for them and not Sketchfor
rights; a Historical
ties, in order to fulfill
them well; to against them. The natural difference Picture of
judge one's actions and those of others in capacities among individuals whose the Progress
according to one's own lights and be de understanding has not been developed of the
Human
nied none of the higher and more re produces charlatans and dupes, the
Mind
fined sentiments that honor human na clever and the gullible, even among the
ture ; to avoid blind dependence on those savages. This same difference doubtless
to whom one is to entrust one's exists in societies where instruction has
obliged
affairs or the exercise of one's rights, become truly general, but in this case it
and to have the capacity to choose them entails no more than the differentiation
and supervise them ; to be no longer the between enlightenedindividuals and
of those errors that tor those ones who
dupe popular right-minded recognize
ment one's life with superstitious fears the value of knowledge without being
and chimerical hopes ; to defend oneself dazzled by it, between talent or genius
reason and the good sense that knows how to
from prejudices by the force of
alone; and finally, to escape the seduc appreciate and benefit from them. And
tions of charlatanism that would en even if this difference were to become
snare one's wealth, health, and freedom greater in terms of the relative strength
of opinion and conscience, under the and extent of individual capacities, it
pretext of promising enrichment, heal would not have amore marked effect on
or salvation. the relations among individuals and on
ing,
From that point on, the inhabitants of factors affecting their independence and
a will no be differ their happiness.
single country longer
entiated by their use of cruder or more These various causes of
equality do
refined language. They will be able to not operate in isolation. They combine,
govern themselves according to their interact, and reinforce one another,
own lights. They will no longer be limit a
jointly producing stronger, surer, and
ed to unthinking more constant action. More
acquaintance with the equal in
of an art or the routine of a struction fosters greater equality in in
procedures
profession. They will no longer depend, dustry and hence in wealth ;economic
for the simplest matters or the most ele equality necessarily promotes equality
mentary instruction, on skillful men of instruction ;and there is amutual re
who dominate them by virtue of their lationship between equality among peo
necessary superiority. Real equality must ples and that among individuals.
be the result, since differences in knowl In short, well-organized instruction
edge and talents will no longer raise a corrects the natural inequality in human
barrier between individuals whose senti capacities rather than strengthening it,
ments, ideas, and language will permit just as laws natural in
good remedy
them to understand one another, who means
equality in the of subsistence,
may wish to be instructed by others but and just as liberty will be more extensive
will not need to be directed by them, and and more entire in societies where insti
who will be able to entrust responsibility tutions have led to such equality than it
for government to the more enlightened
was in the state of
independence enjoyed
them forced to even
among without being by the savages, though itwill be
it to them a
abandon in blind confidence. subject to regular constitution. The
In this way, superiority becomes ad social art will thus have fulfilled its pur
vantageous even to those who do not pose, that of assuring and extending for
Condorcet all the enjoyment of the common rights ments and methods used to observe and
on
to which nature calls them. measure them acquire a new precision.
progress
The real advantages to result from the As more relations become known among
progress we may hope for with virtual a greater number of objects, it becomes
certainty, as we have now seen, can have possible to subsume them under more
no other limit than the very perfecting of and express them
general relationships
the human species. This must be so be in simpler terms, presenting them in
cause, as the various causes of equality ways that make it possible to grasp a
extend their effect to vaster means of greater number with the same brain
for our needs, to a broader power and no greater force of attention.
providing
range of instruction, and to amore com As the mind reaches more complicated
plete liberty, the resulting equality will combinations, simpler formulae make
be more substantial and closer to em them easier to grasp. In consequence,
bracing everything truly affecting hu truths first discovered by the greatest

man effort, and initially understood only by
happiness.
individuals capable of profound reflec
JLt follows that we can only know the ex tion, are soon developed and proved by
tent or limit of our hopes in examining methods that are no longer beyond per
the advance and laws of this ameliora sons of average If the meth
intelligence.
tion. ods that lead to new combinations are
one has ever or if their to
No thought that the mind exhausted, application
could exhaust all the facts of nature or questions still unresolved demands ef
reach the ultimate means of precision in fort exceeding the time or powers of re
soon more
measuring and analyzing these facts, the searchers, general methods
of one to another, and more simple
means appear to open
relationships objects
and all the possible combinations of a new field to genius. The power and
ideas. The relations of magnitude alone range of human minds will have re
- the mained the same, but the instruments
quantity and extension, permuta
- can employ will have been multi
tions of this single idea form a system they
that is already too immense for the hu plied and improved, and the language
man mind ever to be able to grasp in its that fixesand determines their ideas will
or for the part of this system have been able to acquire more precision
entirety,
our and generality. And in contrast to me
intelligence will have penetrated
ever to be greater than that remaining chanics, where force may be increased
unknown to it. The conclusion has only by diminishing velocity, the meth
therefore been drawn that, since human ods directing genius in the discovery of
kind will ever be able to know a new truths will have added both to its
only
fraction of the objects its intelligence is force and to the rapidity of its opera
of grasping, it is bound to reach tions.
capable
a point at which the number and compli Since these changes are the necessary
cation of the facts already known will consequence of progress in the knowl
have absorbed all its forces and any fur edge of detailed truths, and since the
ther progress will become need for new resources
really impos simultaneously
sible. produces the means of obtaining them,
But as facts multiply, the human mind it follows that the real accumulation of
learns to classify them and reduce them truths forming the system of the empiri
to more facts, and the instru cal, experimental, and mathematical sei
general
enees can grow and all the how much Sketchfor
constantly, mineralogy, botany, zoology, a Historical
parts of this same system will be en and meteorology would benefit as a re Picture of
hanced even assuming only the same sult ;and what a great disparity there is the Progress
strength, activity, and extent of human in these sciences between the weakness of the
Human
faculties. of the methods that have nevertheless
Mind
In applying these general considera led us to so many useful and important
tions to the different sciences, we shall truths, and the power of those that could
find examples of successive advances in then be employed.
each that leave no doubt regarding the We shall explain how the advantage
certainty of those we must expect. In the of being cultivated by a large number
case of those sciences of individuals extends even to those sci
regarded by preju
dice as closest to being exhausted, we ences in which discoveries are achieved
shall make a particular point of identify by meditation alone, since progress in
ing the advances that promise to be most these sciences can be made
through
probable and most imminent. We shall those improvements in detail that do
elucidate that amore not require an inventor's brainpower
everything general
and philosophical application of the and become evident upon simple reflec
mathematical sciences to all human tion.
knowledge will necessarily add to the Turning to the useful arts, we shall see
extent, precision, and unity of the entire that their progress is bound to follow
system of this knowledge. We shall ex that of the sciences upon which they
more universal in no
plain how instruction depend for their theory, and to have
each country must expand our hopes by other limits ; that their techniques are
a greater number of individuals of the same improvements
giving susceptible
the elementary knowledge that can in and simplifications as scientific meth
spire their taste for a particular subject ods ; that instruments,machines, and
of study and foster their ability to make specializations steadily increase human
progress in it. In the most enlightened strength and skill, augmenting both the
countries, a fiftieth of those to and precision of
scarcely perfection products
whom nature has given talents receive while diminishing the time and labor
the instruction necessary to develop needed to achieve them. The obstacles
them. We shall show that our hopes of still opposing the progress of these arts
progress will increase even further as will disappear, along with the accidents
more allows one will learn to and prevent,
widespread prosperity anticipate
more individuals to devote themselves and the dangers to health arising from
to these occupations, and as the number the work itself, from habitual practices,
of individuals destined to push back the or from climate.
limits of the sciences by their discoveries Then an ever-smaller tract of land will
necessarily grows in the same propor yield
a
quantity of
more useful and valu
tion. able commodities; greater enjoyments
Itwill be seen how much this equality will be obtained with less consumption
of instruction, and the equality that of resources; the same industrial prod
must be established among the various ucts will require less destruction of raw
nations, would accelerate the progress materials, or become more durable. It
of those sciences in which advances de will be possible to select, for each kind
on observations in greater of soil, the crop satisfying the greatest
pend repeated
number and extended over a serv
larger area; needs, and to choose,
among crops
Condor cet a man have ac
on
ing similar needs, those satisfying species would
necessarily
greater number of people with less work we can
progress quired knowledge scarcely imag
and less real consumption. Thus, with ine. And who would dare guess what the
out any sacrifice, the means of conserva art of converting the elements into sub
tion and of economy in consumption stances fit for our use must one day
will follow the progress of the art of re bring?
producing various substances, process But supposing this limit must one day
ing them, and producing goods from be reached, there is nothing we need fear
them. as a result, either for the happiness of the
Not only will the same plot of land human species, or for its indefinite im
thus be able to feed more individuals, provement. Ifwe assume that up to this
but they will each be engaged in less ar point the progress of reason will have
duous but more
productive occupations, matched that of the sciences and the
and better able to satisfy their needs. arts, that the ridiculous prejudices of
As the progress of industry and wel superstition will have ceased to infuse
fare leads to amore advantageous ratio a severity that corrupts
morality with
between human capacities and needs, and degrades it rather than purifying and
each generation will be brought to great elevating it, then humanity will know
er as a result either of this that the obligations it has toward those
enjoyments,
progress or of the conservation of goods not yet born consist in giving them not
produced earlier. Given the constitution life but happiness. These obligations
of the human species, however, it fol pertain to the general welfare of the hu
lows that there will be an increase in the man of the in which one
species, society
number of individuals. Will there not lives, of the family to which one is at
inevitably come a point, therefore, at tached, not to the childish idea of filling
which these two equally necessary laws the earth with useless and miserable
will clash and the growth in the number beings. Thus there could be a limit to
of people will exceed the increase in the possible quantity of foodstuffs, and
their resources? Is this not bound to lead hence to the maximum population,
to a kind of oscillation between good without this resulting in a premature de
and evil, if not to the constant diminu struction of some of those beings al
tion of well-being and population that ready living, which would be contrary
would constitute a real retrogression? to nature and to social prosperity.
Will this oscillation not become an en
cause of in soci of the first principles of
during periodic misery -L>Jiscovery
eties that have reached this point? Will ethics, and politics, or
metaphysics,
it not indicate the end point beyond rather their exact is still recent.
analysis,
which further
improvement would be Because knowledge of these principles
come the limit to its better
impossible, was preceded by a great number of par
ment the human species would finally ticular truths, the prejudice that it has
reach after an immensity of centuries reached its ultimate limit easily took
and never be able to go beyond? root. Because there were no more gross
Thereis no one, surely, who fails to see errors to destroy or fundamental truths
how distant this time is from us, but are to establish, itwas assumed that there
we not bound to reach it one day? It is was left to do.
nothing
equally impossible to pronounce for or But it is easy to see how imperfect the
the future of an event that of the intellectual and moral
against reality analysis
would occur only in an age when the hu faculties of humankind remains. Since
of one's individual duties de stantial progress because it offers the Sketchfor
knowledge a Historical
on the effects of sole means of giving their results an al
pends understanding Picture of
one's actions on the well-being of one's most mathematical and of the Progress
precision
fellows and on the society to which one
evaluating their degree of certainty
or of the
Human
belongs, it can therefore still be extend likelihood. In the absence of calculation,
Mind
ed by more consistent, more probing, admittedly, the facts upon which these
and more precise observation of these results rest may sometimes lead us to
effects. Many questions remain to be truths on the basis of observa
general
answered, many social relations to be tion alone, and they may on occasion
examined, before we will know precisely teach us whether the effect produced by
the extent of the individual's a cause or not.
rights, and given has been positive
of the rights the social state gives to all But unless it has been possible to count
in relation to each. Have we yet estab or the or to
weigh facts, subject the ef
lished with any precision the limits on fects to precise measurement, one will
rights, either those of different societies not be able to gauge the extent of the
in wartime, those of societies over their or evil cause. The
good arising from this
members in times of division and disor good and evil might almost balance out,
der, or those of individuals or sponta or the difference between them might
neous associations at the point of their not be very great, in which case one
free and original formation or when would be unable even to determine with
their dissolution becomes necessary? any certainty which way the scale might
Turning to the theory that must direct tip.Without the application of mathe
the application of these principles and matical calculation, itwould often be
serve as the basis for the social art, is it to choose with any confi
impossible
not still clearly necessary to reach a pre dence between two arrangements for
cision to which these first truths cannot attaining the same because their
goal,
be susceptible when stated in absolutely relative advantages might not be obvi
we a
general form? Have reached the ously disproportionate. Lacking such
at which we can base all the resource, these sciences would remain
point provi
sions of our laws on justice or a proven crude and limited for want of methods
on vague,
and recognized utility, and not sophisticated enough to grasp the elu
uncertain, and or sive truth, or of techniques reliable
arbitrary opinions
? Have we to mine the at which
alleged political advantages enough depths
determined the precise rules for choos part of their wealth lies hidden.
ing with assurance, among the almost These applications of mathematics
infinite number of possible arrange remain still elementary, one say,
might
ments under which the general princi despite the happy efforts of some mathe
ples of equality and natural rights would maticians. They will open up to succeed
be respected, those which would more ing generations a source of
knowledge
as
fully guarantee the preservation of these inexhaustible as the science of calcula

allow great leeway for their exer tion itself, as vast as the number of com
rights,
cise and enjoyment, and ensure most binations, relationships, and facts that
effectively the peace and well-being of can be made to it.
subject
individuals and the strength, tranquility, There is another advance to be made
and prosperity of nations ? in these sciences that is no less impor
The application of combinatorial the tant :perfecting their language, which is
ory and the calculus of probabilities to still so vague and obscure. This can give
these sciences
promises
even more sub them the advantage of becoming truly
Condor cet even in their form. sary result of a well-conceived
on popular, elementary study of
Genius can overcome the imprecision of a greater in the condi
progress morality, equality
scientific languages along with other tions of the social pact? The sense of
obstacles ; it recognizes the truth despite one's dignity that belongs to the free
the strange mask that conceals or dis person, an
upbringing based on a devel
guises it. But will the individual who can oped knowledge of the constitution of
a few moments to his in our moral :
only devote being must these not render
struction be able to acquire and retain common among almost all of us those
the simplest notions if they are disfig principles of a strict and pure justice,
ured by an imprecise language? The those habitual movements of an active
less able he is to assemble and combine and enlightened benevolence, of a deli
ideas, the more he needs them to be ex cate and generous
sensibility? Their
act and precise ;his own intelligence seeds have been placed by nature in all
cannot supply him with a system of our hearts, and
they await only the sweet
truths that will protect him against er influence of enlightenment and liberty
ror ;and his mind, to develop within us. Just as the mathe
lacking the strength
and refinement that comes from long matical and physical sciences serve to
exercise, is unable to seize the feeble rays improve the arts employed to provide
that slip through the obscurities and am for our simplest needs, is it not equally
of an within the necessary order of nature that
biguities imperfect and perverted
language. the progress of the moral and political
sciences exercise a similar effect on the
iluman cannot enlighten them motives that direct our sentiments and
beings
selves the nature and our actions?
regarding develop
ment of their moral sentiments, the Is it notthe case that improvement in
of ethics and the natural moti the laws and public institutions resulting
principles
vations that bring their actions into ac from the progress of the moral and polit
cordance with them, their interests as ical sciences will have the effect of har
individuals or as members of a society, monizing and identifying the common
without also making progress in the interest of each individual with the com
of as real as that in the mon of all? Is it not the goal of
interest
practice morality
science itself. Is not interest badly un the social art to destroy this apparent
derstood the most frequent cause of opposition? Will not the society whose
actions contrary to the common constitution and laws conform most
good?
Is the violence of the passions not fre exactly to the voice of reason and nature
the effect of habits embraced be the place where virtue will be easiest,
quently
or the temptations to stray from itweakest
only as the result of miscalculation,
of ignorance of the means of resisting and most rare?
their first What vicious habit is there, what prac
impulses, calming them,
and redirecting and controlling their tice contrary to good faith, what crime
action? even, that cannot be shown to derive its
Consider the habit of reflecting upon origin and first cause from the legisla
one's own conduct and listening to one's tion, institutions, and prejudices accord
reason and one's conscience as one does ing to which it is observed?
so, the experience of those gentle senti In short, will the well-being that fol
ments that blend our happiness with lows from the advances of the useful arts
are based on sound
that of others :are these not the neces when they theory, or
from the progress of a just legislation as humans, or the interests of society? Sketchfor
a Historical
based on the truths of the moral and Would it not realize what has so far been Picture of
sciences, not dispose a manners
political individu only fantasy: national that the Progress
als toward a sense of humanity, benevo are sweet and pure, formed not
by priva of the
Human
lence, and justice? tions arising from pride, by hypocritical
Mind
These observations will be developed appearances, by restrictions imposed by
more fully in the work to follow. Do they the fear of shame or religious terrors,
-
not prove that moral goodness the nec but by habits that are freely acquired,
essary result of the human constitution inspired by nature, and declared by
- to in
is susceptible like all the faculties reason?
definite and that nature The most re
improvement, enlightened peoples,
has linked truth, happiness, and virtue claiming the right to expend their blood
an indissoluble chain? and their wealth, will gradually learn to
together by
The advances of the human mind see war as the deadliest scourge and the
most important for the general happi greatest of crimes. The first conflicts to
ness must include the complete elimina disappear will be those into which peo
are
tion of the prejudices that have estab ples dragged by the usurpers of na
lished an inequality of rights between tional sovereignty in support of alleged
the two sexes that is fatal even to the one hereditary rights.
it is presumed to favor. We would look in Peoples will know that they cannot
vain for grounds to justify this inequality become conquerors without losing their
in terms of differences in the physical own
liberty; that permanent confedera
organization of the sexes, or of a puta tions are the sole means of maintaining
tive disparity in powers of intelligence their independence ; that they must seek
or inmoral Its only origin is not power. Commercial
sensibility. security, preju
abuse of force ; subsequent attempts to dices will gradually dissipate ;false mer
excuse it have been empty sophistries. cantile interests will lose their dreadful
We shall show how much the destruc power to cover the earth with blood, ru
tion of the practices authorized by this ining nations under the pretext of en
prejudice, and of the laws it has dictated, riching them. As peoples finally come to
can contribute to the enhancement of closer agreement on the of
principles
family happiness, and to making com politics and ethics, as each finds that its
mon and habitual the domestic virtues own consists in for
advantage offering
that are the first foundation of all the eigners
amore
equal share of the goods
others; how much this change can foster it owes to nature and its industry, all the
the progress of instruction, and especial causes and per
producing, envenoming,
ly render it truly general, either because petuating national hatreds will gradually
itwill be extended to the two sexes more vanish, no longer to serve as fuel or pre
or virtue of the fact that it text for the fury of war.
equally, by
cannot become even for men, Institutions better devised than the
general,
without the support of mothers of fami projects for perpetual peace that have
lies. Would this belated tribute to equity occupied the leisure and consoled the
and good sense not stifle a fertile source some
spirit of philosophers will acceler
of injustices, cruelties, and crimes by ate the progress of this brotherhood
so dangerous an among nations. Wars between
eliminating opposition peoples,
between the liveliest and most irrepress like assassinations, will be numbered
ible natural inclination and our duties among those monstrous atrocities that
Condorcet humiliate and revolt nature, and bring considered in themselves must never
on
enduring disgrace to the country and the theless be as intense even when the artist
progress
century whose annals can claim less merit to bringing
they have stained. them to
perfection. As artistic works wor
truly
V Ve have already observed, when we thy of preservation multiply and become
more
discussed the fine arts in Greece, Italy, perfect, each generation will exer
and France, that it is necessary to distin cise its curiosity and capacity for admi
in an artistic work ration on those deserving
guish what really be preference ;
to the progress of the art and what others will gradually be forgotten ;and
longs
is owing to the talent of the particular the enjoyment to be derived from the
artist. We shall point out here the prog simplest and most striking manifesta
ress still to be in the arts, tions of beauty, those that were caught
expected
whether as a result of progress in philos the first, will not exist less for the new
and the sciences, of more numer generations who must find them among
ophy
ous and more
thorough observations of the modern creations.
object, effects, and techniques of the

arts, or of the destruction of the preju JLhe progress of the sciences guarantees
dices that have restricted their sphere that of the art of instruction, which in
and kept them still under the yoke of turn accelerates scientific advance. The
authority, which the sciences and philos constant action of this reciprocal influ
ophy have already cast off. We shall con ence must be counted among the most
sider whether the arts must reach the and causes of the
dynamic powerful
of exhaustion, as some have be amelioration of the human species. A
point
lieved, once the most sublime and mov young man leaving school today knows
ing beauty has been caught, the most fe more mathematics than Newton ac
licitous subjects have been treated, the or discovered
quired by profound study
simplest and most striking arrangements through his genius ;he is able to utilize
employed, the most vivid and most gen the instrument of the calculus with a
erous characters the strongest then unknown. The same obser
portrayed, facility
passions and their truest and most natu vation is applicable to all the sciences,
ral expressions represented, along with though in unequal measure. As each de
the most imposing truths and the most so do the means of
velops, expressing
brilliant images. Are the arts con more the proofs of a greater
concisely
demned, in short, whatever one number of its truths, and of making
fertility
attributes to their techniques, to the them easier to understand. In conse
eternal monotony of imitating the first quence, new advances in the sciences
models? notwithstanding, not only do individu
We shall make clear that this view is als of equal genius still reach the level of
no more than a born of the the current state of knowledge at a simi
prejudice
tendency of writers and artists to judge lar age, but what each generation can
individuals instead of appreciating learn in the same length of time, with
works. If there must be a loss of the re the same brainpower and the same at
flective pleasure produced by comparing tention, necessarily increases. Similarly,
works of art from different centuries or the elementary part of each science, that
different countries, or the which all can master, becomes more and
by admiring
efforts or the successes of genius, the en more extensive, thus comprising more
joyment to be derived from these works fully the knowledge each individual
must have to conduct his life, from them. We shall explain how, with Sketchfor
everyday a Historical
or exercise his reason with complete the aid of a small number of these tables, Picture of
whose use will be
independence. easily learned, individ the Progress
In the political sciences there is an or uals who have not been able to go far of the
can es Human
der of truths that only be useful, the most elementary in
enough beyond Mind
pecially among free peoples (which, struction to master detailed
knowledge
within a few will mean all useful in common life will find it possi
generations,
peoples), when are known ble to locate this knowledge at will
they generally
and acknowledged. The influence of the whenever the need arises. We shall also
progress of these sciences on the liberty show how use of these same methods
and prosperity of nations must therefore can facilitate instruction in
elementary
be measured, to some degree, by the any field where it is based on a systemat
number of these truths that become ic order of truths or on a sequence of ob
common to all minds as a result of ele servations or facts.
instruction. Thus the constant A universal one that uses
mentary language is
expansion of elementary instruction in signs to represent either real objects, or
these sciences, linked as it is to their nec those well-defined of simple
aggregates
essary progress, offers us an improve and general ideas that are found to be
ment in the destinies of the human spe the same (or can take form equally) in
cies that can be regarded as indefinite, the understanding of all individuals, or
since its only limits are those of this the general relations between these
same
progress. ideas, the operations of the human
We still have to discuss
two general mind, the procedures to each
particular
means that must influence the improve or the
science, of the arts.
techniques
ment of the art of instruction as well as who knew these the meth
People signs,
the advance of the sciences. One is the ods of combining them, and the princi
more extensive and less imperfect use of them would understand
ples underlying
what might be called technical methods ; what iswritten in this
language and be
the other, the establishment a
of univer able to express itwith equal facility in
sal language. the language of their own country.
technical I understand
By methods, Clearly, this language could be used to
the art of bringing a set out the theory of a science or the
together large quan
tity of data in a systematic arrangement rules of an art, to report an experiment
it possible to see their relation or new observation, the invention of a
making
ships immediately, grasp combinations procedure, or the discovery of a truth
among them rapidly, and form new per or method. As in algebra, signs already
mutations easily. known would supply the means of ex
We shall set forth the principles and the precise meaning of new
plaining
show the utility of this art still in its in ones when are needed.
they
fancy. As it is developed, itwill offer the A language of this kind would not
of a of a scientific
advantage bringing together within share the disadvantages
small table what would often be difficult idiom different from common usage.
to show as readily, or as well, in a very We have already observed that use of
lengthy book. Alternatively, itwill pro such an idiom would necessarily have
vide the even more precious means of the effect of dividing into two
society
presenting isolated facts in the order unequal classes of people : those who
most suitable to derive general results know the scientific and thus
language
Condorcet
possess the key to all the sciences, and We have outlined the proofs of this
on
those who have been unable to learn it here, and will be more
progress
they developed
find themselves utter in the work to come.
and consequently fully and forcefully
ly unable to acquire knowledge. The uni We could therefore already conclude
versal language, in contrast, would be that humankind is indefinitely amelio
learned with a science itself, as in alge rable. But so far we have assumed that it
bra ; the sign would be understood at the will have the same faculties and the same
same time as the object, the idea, or the physical constitution. What then would
procedure it represents. An individual be the extent and certainty of our hopes

who had acquired the elements of a sci ifwe could believe that these natural
ence and wanted to study it further faculties and this physical constitution
would find in books not only truths he themselves could also be improved?
could understand with the help of the This is the last question remaining for
he already us to consider.
signs whose precise meaning
knew, but also the explanation of new amelioration or deterioration
Organic
to reach other truths. of vegetable and animal species may be
signs necessary
as one of the
We shall demonstrate that there is regarded general laws of
chimerical about the idea of nature. This law extends to the human
nothing
a it is no one will doubt that
forming such language, provided species and surely
limited to the expression of simple and progress in medical care, healthier nutri
of the kind that tion and accommodation, amode of life
precise propositions
form the system of a science or the prac developing strength through exercise
tice of an art. Its creation would already without destroying it through excess,
be easy for a large number of objects, and, finally, destruction of the two most
ex causes -
and the strongest obstacle against potent of degradation misery
some -
tending it
to others would be the and excessive wealth will inevitably
what humiliating necessity of accepting extend the average lifespan and assure
how few precise ideas and well-defined human beings more consistent health
notions we have yet to agree on. and amore robust constitution. It seems
We shall show how this language, con clear that advances in preventive medi
and daily extending cine, rendered more efficacious by the
stantly improving
its range, would bring to bear on all the progress of reason and of the social or
objects embraced by human intelligence der, will in the long run extinguish trans
a rigor and precision that would make missible and contagious illnesses, as
knowledge of the truth easy and error well as the common illnesses caused by
almost impossible. Then each science climate, foodstuffs, and working condi
would advance as surely as mathematics, tions. Nor will it be difficult to prove
and the propositions forming its system that this same expectation must apply to
would all the geometric certain almost all other illnesses, whose distant
acquire
causes will one day probably be discov
ty permitted by the nature of its subject
and method. ered. Would it be absurd at this point to
imagine that this amelioration of the hu
j?\l\ these causes of the amelioration of man species must be regarded as suscep
the human species, all these means as tible of indefinite progress, that a time
exer will come when death will be only a re
suring it, must by their very nature
cise a continuous action and constantly sult of unusual accidents or the slower
extend their range. and slower deterioration of vital forces,
8o D dalus Summer 2004
and even that the average interval be whether the laws of nature have fixed Sketchfor
a Historical
tween birth and this deterioration will such apoint. Picture of
have no assignable limit? Human beings As for physical faculties, the force, the Progress
will certainly not become immortal, but adaptability, and delicacy of the senses, of the
Human
can there not be an indefinite increase in are these not among the
qualities whose Mind
the interval between the beginning of improvement in the individual can be
life and the average point at which exis transmitted? Observation of the differ
tence becomes difficult for them natu ent species of domestic animals leads us
rally, without illness or accident? Since to believe so, and we will be able to
we are here of a progress that confirm this by direct
speaking study of human
can be with nu
represented precision beings.
or can these same
merically diagrammatically, this is the Finally, hopes be ex
appropriate point at which to explicate tended to intellectual and moral facul
the two possible meanings of the term ties ? Our parents pass on to us the ad
indefinite. vantages and defects of their physical

Itmight be that this average lifespan, constitution, from which we derive dis
constantly increasing the further we tinctive bodily characteristics and dispo

advance in time, expands by virtue of a sitions to particular physical states. Can
us that part of
law according to which it continually they not also pass on to
a dura
approaches point of unlimited physical organization governing intelli
tion without ever it. Or it
reaching gence, strength of mind, emotional
might be that it expands by virtue of a energy, and moral sensibility? Is it not
law according to which, over the im that in these
plausible improving quali
mensity of centuries, it reaches a dura ties education could affect this same
tion greater than any determinate limit physical organization, and
modifying
we to it. In this lat
might have assigned improving it? Analogy, analysis of the
ter case, the increase is truly indefinite in development of human faculties, and
the most absolute sense, because there even some observed facts seem to prove
exists no endpoint before which itmust the reality of these conjectures, which
stop. In the former case, the increase is would extend even further the limits of
also indefinite in relationship to us ifwe our
hopes.
cannot fix the point itmust always ap
proach and can neverreach, and espe JLhese are the questions to be exam
can never
cially if, knowing only that it ined in concluding the discussion of this
stop, we do not even know which of the Tenth Epoch. And how welcome to the
two senses of the term 'indefinite' is this picture of the human
philosopher
should be applied to it. This is precisely race freed from all its chains, released
the limit of our present knowledge as from the domination of chance and of
to the potential of the the enemies of its progress,
ameliorability advancing
human species, and hence the sense in with a firm and sure step in the
path of
which we can call it indefinite. truth, virtue, and happiness !How this
Thus, in the example considered here, spectacle consoles him for the errors,
we have to believe that the average hu crimes, and injustices that still defile the
man
lifespan must increase constantly earth, of which he is often the victim ! In
unless this is prevented revo of this picture, he finds
by physical contemplation
lutions, but we do not know the limit the reward for his efforts on behalf of
beyond which it cannot extend, or even the progress of reason and the defense
D dalus Summer 2004 8l
Condor cet of liberty. He dares thus to link these ef
on
forts to the eternal chain of human des
progress
tinies, finding there the true reward of
the some
virtue, pleasure of having done
which fate will no
lasting good longer
destroy, bringing back prejudices and
a
slavery in deadly swing of the pendu
lum. This contemplation affords him an
asylum where the memory of his perse
cutors cannot pursue him, where he
forgets humanity tormented and cor
rupted by greed, fear, or envy, to live in

the mind with humanity restored to the
rights and dignity of its nature. There

he truly lives in communion with his
fellows, in a that his reason
paradise
has been able to create and his love of
humankind enhances with the purest of
pleasures.

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Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind: Tenth Epoch

Author(s): Condorcet and Keith Michael Baker

Sketchfor aHistorical Picture of theProgress

Arago, 12 vols. [Paris:FirminDidotfr?res, schildfor helpfulcommentson a draft of this

D dalus Summer 2004 65

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by the resistance of governments that dictated in equal measure by philanthro

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publics, the upheavals that disrupted marriage arrangements. And itwill di

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70 D dalus Summer 2004

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bracing everything truly affecting hu truths first discovered by the greatest

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74 D dalus Summer 2004

fully guarantee the preservation of these inexhaustible as the science of calcula

76 D dalus Summer 2004

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object, effects, and techniques of the

78 D dalus Summer 2004

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procedure it represents. An individual be the extent and certainty of our hopes

8o D dalus Summer 2004

indefinite. vantages and defects of their physical

constantly increasing the further we tinctive bodily characteristics and dispo

D dalus Summer 2004 8l

forgets humanity tormented and cor

rupted by greed, fear, or envy, to live in

rights and dignity of its nature. There

82 D dalus Summer 2004

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