From: Jonathan Overpeck <jto@u.arizona.

edu>
To: Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de>
Subject: Re: urgent help re Augusto Mangini
Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2007 09:35:51 -0600
Cc: Valerie Masson-Delmotte <Valerie.Masson@cea.fr>, Eystein Jansen
<eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no>, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

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Hi Stefan - Valerie was the lead on the Holocene section, so I'll cc
her. I agree that your approach is the smart one - it's easy to show
proxy records (e.g., speleothems) from a few sites that suggest
greater warmth than present at times in the past, but our assessment
was that there wasn't a period of GLOBAL warmth comparable to
present. We used the term likely, however, since there still is a
good deal of work to do on this topic - we need a better global
network of sites.

Keith can comment on the last 1300 years, but again, I think there is
no published evidence to refute what we assessed in the chapter.
Again, one or two records does not hemispheric or global make.

I think Keith or Valerie could comment further if they're not

Eastering. Eystein, likewise might have something, but I think it is
his national responsibility to hit the glaciers over Easter.

Best, Peck

>Dear Peck and IPCC coauthors,

>
>- I know it's Easter, but I'm having to deal with Augusto Mangini, a
>German colleague who has just written an article calling the IPCC
>paleo chapter "wrong", claiming it has been warmer in the Holocene
>than now, and stalagmites show much larger temperature variations
>than tree rings but IPCC ignores them. What should I answer?
>
>One of my points is that IPCC shows all published large-scale proxy
>reconstructions but there simply is none using stalagmites - so
>please tell me if this is true?!! My main point will be the local
>vs hemispheric issue, saying that Mangini only provides local
>examples, while the IPCC statement is about hemispheric or global
>averages.
>
>But how about local variations - do stalagmites show much larger
>ones than tree rings? Any suggestions what other counter-arguments I
>could write? Do we have a stalagmite expert on the author team,
>other than contributing
>author Dominik Fleitmann, whom I've already identified?
>I have to submit my response to the newspaper tomorrow.
>
>Thanks, Stefan
>
>--
>Stefan Rahmstorf
>www.ozean-klima.de
>www.realclimate.org
>
>
>
>
>--
>Stefan Rahmstorf
>www.ozean-klima.de
>www.realclimate.org

--
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Mail and Fedex Address:

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth

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