TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction …………………………………………………………………2
1.1. Probability ………………………………………………………...2
1.1.1. Experimental .................................................................2
1.1.2. Theoretical .....................................................................3
1.1.3. Conditional .....................................................................4
1.2. Sampling with and without replacement.....................6
2. Rationale ..................................................................................................7
3. Modeling ..................................................................................................8
3.1. Game ...........................................................................................8
3.1.1. Objective...........................................................................8
3.1.2. Rules...................................................................................8
3.2. Outcome ....................................................................................8
3.2.1. Raw data ..........................................................................8
3.2.2. Proccessed data .........................................................13
4. Conclusion ............................................................................................17
5. References ............................................................................................18
 1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Probability
Probability is the extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something
happening or being the case.1 By using mathematics, one can describe the chance of an
event happening.2 Probability in math is a number between 0 and 1 which describes the
odds of a certain event occurring. An impossible event has 0% probability of happening
and a certain event has 100% probability of happening3.
One can calculate probability either by observing results of an experiment
(experimental probability) or by using “arguments of symmetry” (theoretical
probability)4.

1.1.1 Experimental probability

In experiments, there are 4 key terms that are used to calculate probability:
 Number of trials: number of times the test has been conducted
 Outcomes: the different results for each trial of the test
 Frequency: of a specific outcome is the number of times that outcome has been
observed
 Relative frequency: of an outcome is the frequency expressed as a fraction of
percentage for total number of trials
To make the terms clearer, an example experiment has ben conducted; a coin has
been thrown 200 times. The outcome can be either heads or tails. In the table below is the
recorded data.
Table 1.

OUTCOMES

The relative frequency or probability is calculated by

1
„Probability - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary“, Merriam-Webster, 2014,
<http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/probability> (28.9.2014.)
2
Haese, Robert, Sandra Haese, Michael Haese, Marjut Maenpaa, and Mark Humphries. Mathematics for the
International Student: Mathematics SL. Adelaide: haese Mathematics, 2012. Print.
3
Ibid.
4
Ibid.

2|Page
 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐴
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐴) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
109
𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = = 0.545 × 100% = 54.5%
200
91
𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) = = 0.455 × 100% = 45.5%
200
This ensues that the probability for flipping a coin and it landing on heads is 54.5%
and for it landing on tails 45.5%. This is the relative frequency. From no further testing, the
only conclusion one can pull is that these are the odds of a coin flip. But, if one were to have
a bigger number of trials, they would observe chances closer to 50% for both heads and
tails5.

1.1.2 Theoretical probability

This probability is based on what we theoretically expect to occur.6 The chance for
any outcome to happen is the equal. An example, the die. A die has 6 sides ergo 6 outcomes
1
and if we assume that the die is not loaded, every side (number) has a 6 chance. And so the
same formula can be used:
𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐴
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝐴) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠
In theoretical probability there are complementary and compound events.
Complementary events are those were one of the events must occur;
𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴´) = 1
Considering if A is an event, A´ is the respective complementary event.
In the example of a coin;
𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) + 𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠´) = 1

1 1
+ =1
2 2

5
„Lawoflargenumbersanimation2.gif (100×169) “, Wikimedia, unknown,
<http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/49/Lawoflargenumbersanimation2.gif> (28.9.2014.)
6
Haese, Robert, Sandra Haese, Michael Haese, Marjut Maenpaa, and Mark Humphries. Mathematics for the
International Student: Mathematics SL. Adelaide: haese Mathematics, 2012. Print.

3|Page
 Compound events are the probability of two or more things happening at once7.
These kinds of experiments a conducted with two or more object for example a coin and a
die, or two coins or two dies. There are independent compound events and dependent
compound events.
Independent compound events are those where one event does not affect the
probability of the second, third, nth event.8 As an example, tossing a die does not effect a
coin in any way so the two events are independent of each other and each have their own
probability. To calculate the independent events, saying that A is one event and B is
another, one uses this formula;
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
For example, to calculate what is the probability of getting heads on a coin and
rolling an even number on a die;
1 3 3 1
𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) = 𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) × 𝑃(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) = × = = = 25%
2 6 12 4
Dependent compound events are those were the outcome of one event affect the
second, third, nth event9. An example for this is playing cards. There are 52 cards, minus
jokers, in one deck of cards. If you pull out one card, and then another, without replacing or
putting the first card back, what are the chances to pull out an ace and a 5? The general
formula is;
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
4 4 4
𝑃(𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎 5) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑐𝑒) × 𝑃(𝑎 5|𝑎𝑐𝑒) = × = = 0.60%
52 51 663
After pulling out one card, that reduces the number or cards in the deck so the
second card has a slightly bigger chance to be any other card.

1.1.3 Conditional probability

The conditional probability of an event is the possibility that one event will occur
after another event that has already occurred.10 It is denoted as 𝐴 | 𝐵 read as “A given that
B”.

7
„www.shmoop.com/basic-statistics-probability/compound-events.html“, Basic Statistics and Probability, 2014
<http://www.shmoop.com/basic-statistics-probability/compound-events.html> (28.9.2014)
8
Haese, Robert, Sandra Haese, Michael Haese, Marjut Maenpaa, and Mark Humphries. Mathematics for the
International Student: Mathematics SL. Adelaide: haese Mathematics, 2012. Print.
9
„Dependent Events“, Math Goodies, 2014,
<http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/dependent_events.html> (28.9.2014)
10
„Conditional probability - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia“, Wikipedia,
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability> (1.11.2014)

4|Page
 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝐴|𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)
An example; there are 20 jars of marmalade, 9 out of strawberry, 7 out of blueberry
and 4 out of raspberry. 13 jars are on the first shelf (6 strawberry, 4 blueberry, 3
raspberry) and 7 are on the second one (3 strawberry, 3 blueberry, 1 raspberry). What are
the chances to end up with a blueberry jar? A tree diagram will help with determining this.

6
SJ
13
4
FIRST 13
BJ
13 SHELF
20 3
13
RJ
3
SJ
7 3
7 SECOND
7
20 SHELF BJ
1
7
RJ

First, we must calculate what is the chance to pick a blueberry jar.

13 4 7 3
𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑦 𝑗𝑎𝑟) = [ × + × ] × 100% = [0.199 + 0.149] × 100% = 34.8%
20 13 20 7
Next, we have to create a condition. The condition is that the blueberry jar has to be
on the first shelf.
13 4
𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑦 𝑗𝑎𝑟 𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑙𝑓) = [ × ] × 100% = 19.9%
20 13
Next, we calculate what are the chances to pick a blueberry jam jar after we have
chosen to look on the first shelf.
𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑦 𝑗𝑎𝑟 𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑙𝑓) 0.199
𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑠ℎ𝑒𝑙𝑓|𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑦 𝑗𝑎𝑚) = = = 0.571
𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑦 𝑗𝑎𝑟) 0.348
= 57.1%
So, the conditional probability of picking a blueberry jam jar after we have chosen to
look on the first shelf is 57.1%

5|Page
1.2 Sampling with and without replacement
Sampling is choosing one object at random out of a group of many. This technique is
used mostly in checking quality at major factories to ensure that standards are high.11 One
can sample with and without replacement. An example:
From a hat containing 4 names, Linda 5 times, Tom 4 times, Jackie 6 times and
Rodger 2 times, you must pick two to do two chores around the house. If you were to
sample with replacement, you would pull a name out of the hat, that person would get a
chore, and then put his name back in, making his chances bigger to be picked again and the
others less. Without replacement, you would not put his name back in the hat, but would
choose another one minus one name. In the case with replacement, the events are
independent; no matter what name you choose, everyone has the same chances the first
and the second time. But, with replacements, you slightly change the chances for everyone
involved the second time by minimizing the pool of choices.

11
Haese, Robert, Sandra Haese, Michael Haese, Marjut Maenpaa, and Mark Humphries. Mathematics for the
International Student: Mathematics SL. Adelaide: haese Mathematics, 2012. Print.

6|Page
 2. RATIONALE
The reason why the topic of probablitity and sampling has been taken for this
investigation is because the topic of calculating chances is very interesting to me. Blackjack
counters use their witt and probability knowledge to remeber the cards and figure out how
to play. And in everyday bets and card games, the speed of calucating the probability of a
certain card getting tagged out is the key to winning or losing. Overall, I am interested how
to calculate the chances of certain events, faster and possibly in my mind.
The modeling I chose was to play a game that included sampling without
replacment. The playing material is 8 buttons, 5 green ones and and 3 red ones. A red
button is worth 3 points and the green one 1 point. The players will 10 rounds for 1 game.
To win in a round, you have to get 10 points before the other player does. The overall
winner is the one with the most rounds won.
The aim of the invesitgation is for me to create a better understanding of real life
statistics and its use.

7|Page
 3. MODELING
3.1 Game
3.1.1. Objective
Two player game with 10 rounds, more rounds won, overall winner. Each player
gets a turn to draw 5 buttons from a hat. There are 3 red buttons worth 3 points and 5
green buttons worth 1 point. After every round, the player that has gained 10 points in a
smaller amount of draws wins. There are 10 rounds played, the player with more rounds
won is the overall winner.

3.1.2. Rules
Per a round, a player can draw five times. First one player draws all of their buttons,
puts the buttons back, followed by the second player. The winner of the round is the one
who gets the 10 points faster i.e. in less draws. The player with more rounds won after 10
rounds, wins overall. If a player does not get 10 points in a round after the five draws, he
loses the round. If both players lose the round, it is a tie. If both players draw 10 points, the
one with less times drawn wins.

3.2 Outcome
3.2.1. Raw data
I played against my friend Bella and these are the following results.
ROUND 1
SARA
1 1
2 1
3 3
4 1
5 3
ROUND? none
BELLA
1 1
2 1
3 3
4 3
5 1
ROUND? none
WINNER TIE

8|Page
 ROUND 2
SARA
1 1
2 3
3 1
4 1
5 3
ROUND? none
BELLA
1 1
2 3
3 1
4 3
5 1
ROUND? none

WINNER TIE

ROUND 3
SARA
1 1
2 3
3 1
4 3
5 3
ROUND? 5
BELLA
1 3
2 1
3 3
4 1
5 1
ROUND? none

WINNER SARA

ROUND 4
SARA
1 1
2 1
3 3
4 3

9|Page
 5 1
ROUND? none
BELLA
1 3
2 1
3 1
4 1
5 3
ROUND? none

WINNER TIE

ROUND 5
SARA
1 3
2 1
3 1
4 3
5 1
ROUND? none
BELLA
1 3
2 1
3 1
4 3
5 1
ROUND? none

WINNER TIE

ROUND 6
SARA
1 3
2 1
3 1
4 3
5 1
ROUND? none
BELLA
1 3
2 3
3 1
4 3
5 1

10 | P a g e
 ROUND? 4

WINNER BELLA

ROUND 7
SARA
1 1
2 1
3 3
4 1
5 3
ROUND? none
BELLA
1 3
2 1
3 1
4 1
5 3
ROUND? none

WINNER TIE

ROUND 8
SARA
1 3
2 1
3 3
4 1
5 3
ROUND? 5
BELLA
1 3
2 1
3 3
4 1
5 3
ROUND? 5

WINNER TIE

ROUND 9
SARA
1 1
2 3

11 | P a g e
 3 1
4 1
5 3
ROUND? none
BELLA
1 1
2 1
3 3
4 3
5 3
ROUND? 5

WINNER BELLA

ROUND 10
SARA
1 1
2 3
3 1
4 3
5 3
ROUND? 5
BELLA
1 1
2 3
3 3
4 3
5 1
ROUND? 4

WINNER BELLA

12 | P a g e
3.2.1. Proccessed data
Tree diagram RED
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON
of all RED RED GREEN
BUTTON
possibilities GREEN
BUTTON BUTTON

when picking BUTTON RED

BUTTON
GREEN
3 red buttons BUTTON GREEN
and 5 green BUTTON
RED
ones out of 5 BUTTON RED GREEN
BUTTON BUTTON
draws. RED
RED
BUTTON
GREEN BUTTON
The purple BUTTON GREEN
lines are GREEN
BUTTON
representing BUTTON RED
RED BUTTON
the path to BUTTON
GREEN
10 points or GREEN BUTTON
more. BUTTON
RED
GREEN BUTTON
BUTTON GREEN
BUTTON
CHOOSE A
BUTTON RED GREEN
BUTTON BUTTON
RED
BUTTON RED
GREEN BUTTON
BUTTON GREEN
BUTTON
RED
BUTTON RED
RED BUTTON
BUTTON GREEN
GREEN BUTTON
BUTTON RED
GREEN BUTTON
BUTTON GREEN
BUTTON
GREEN
BUTTON RED
RED BUTTON
BUTTON GREEN
RED BUTTON
BUTTON RED
GREEN BUTTON
BUTTON GREEN
GREEN BUTTON
BUTTON RED
RED BUTTON
BUTTON GREEN
GREEN BUTTON
BUTTON RED
GREEN BUTTON
BUTTON GREEN
BUTTON

13 | P a g e
What are the chances that Bella won in the three rounds that she won?
ROUND SIX
3 2 5 1 4
𝑃(10 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) = × × × × = 0.018 = 1.8%
8 7 6 5 4
ROUND NINE
5 4 3 2 1
𝑃(10 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) = × × × × = 0.018 = 1.8%
8 7 6 5 4
ROUND TEN
5 3 2 1 4
𝑃(10 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) = × × × × = 0.018 = 1.8%
8 7 6 5 4
What are the chances that I won in the one round that I won?
ROUND THREE
5 3 4 2 1
𝑃(10 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) = × × × × = 0.018 = 1.8%
8 7 6 5 4
What are the chances to get 10 points if you have picked __________ button(s)?
1. Green

1. Red

1. Green
2. Red

1. Green
2. Green

1. Red
2. Green

1. Red
2. Red
First, we calculate what are the chances to get 10 points or more at all.
𝑃(10 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) = 10 × 1.8% = 18%

14 | P a g e
 a) First picked green button
𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛|10(𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
𝑃(𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑓 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡)
=
𝑃(10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
5
× 4 × 0.018 0.045
=8 = = 0.25 = 25%
0.18 0.18
The chances to win after first picking the green button first is 27.7%
b) First picked red button
𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛|10(𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
𝑃(𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑓 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡)
=
𝑃(10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
3
× 6 × 0.018 0.041
=8 = = 0.227 = 22.7%
0.18 0.18
The chances to win after first picking the red button first is 20.9%
The reason why the chances to win are smaller after first picking out the red button (worth
more points) first is because you are just increasing the number of 1-point buttons and
decreasing the number of 3-point buttons, creating odds less in you favour.
c) First button green, second button red
𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡, 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑|10(𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
𝑃(𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑓 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑑)
=
𝑃(10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
5 3
× × 3 × 0.018 0.014
=8 7 = = 0.077 = 7.7%
0.18 0.18
The chances to win after picking out the green then the red button is 8.6%
d) First and second buttons green
𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛|10(𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
𝑃(𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑓 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛)
=
𝑃(10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
5 4
× × 1 × 0.018 0.006
=8 7 = = 0.037 = 3.7%
0.18 0.18
The chances to win after picking out two green buttons is 3.7%

15 | P a g e
The reason why the chances are smaller to win after picking out two green buttons is
because you would have to pick out all the reamaining red ones, and as you pick the red
ones, the chances are lower to pick one out again.
e) First button red, second button green
𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑑, 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛|10(𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
𝑃(𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑓 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛)
=
𝑃(10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
3 5
× × 3 × 0.018 0.014
=8 7 = = 0.086 = 8.6%
0.18 0.18
The chances to win after picking the red button first then the green one is 8.6%
f) Both buttons red
𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑑|10(𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒) 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
𝑃(𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑓 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑑)
=
𝑃(10 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠)
3 2
× × 2 × 0.018 0.003
=8 7 = = 0.018 = 1.8%
0.18 0.18
The chances to win after picking two red button in a row is 1.8%
The reason why it is less statistically likely to have won after picking out 2 red buttons is
1
because you hace just 1 red button and 5 green ones and a 5 chance to pick out the red
button.

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 4. CONSLUSION
From the data which was collected and calculated I have realized that I did not
understand the probability of similar games to this one. I would think if the most
valuble object was picked first that my chances were better to win the game overall.
But, the opposite has been proven to be true, considering that the chances to win the
game after first picking the green button is 27.7% and the chances to win after picking
the red button first is 20.9%

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 5. BIBLIOGRAPHY

Haese, Robert, Sandra Haese, Michael Haese, Marjut Maenpaa, and Mark Humphries.
Mathematics for the International Student: Mathematics SL. Adelaide: haese
Mathematics, 2012. Print.

 “Basic statistics”, unknown

<www.shmoop.com/basic-statistics-probability/compound-events.html> (28.9.2014)

 Dependent Events“, Math Goodies, 2014,

<http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/dependent_events.html> (28.9.2014)

 „Probability - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary“, Merriam-Webster,
2014, <http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/probability> (28.9.2014.)

 „Conditional probability - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia“, Wikipedia,

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability> (1.11.2014)

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