Método del U.S. Weather Bureau: Si los datos faltantes son lluvias diarias.

CASO 01
Precipitación en estación "X" (mm)
Precipitació Variación
Estación n media Variación Día "Lunes"
(%)
anual
A 680 10 1.5% 15
B 710 40 6.0% 20
C 701 31 4.6% 25
X 670 20
Condición: Variación (%) de cada estación debe ser menor al 10%

CASO 02
Precipitación en estación "X" (mm)
Precipitació Variación
Estación n media Variación Día "Lunes"
(%)
anual
A 720 50 7.5% 15
B 749 79 11.8% 20
C 701 31 4.6% 25
X 670 18.58
Condición: Variación (%) de una estación es mayor al 10%
 Método de los promedios

Año Estación "A" Estación "X"

1984 754 731
1985 766 690
1986 166 154.8
1987 410 306
1988 576 610

Promedio 626.5 584.3

 Método de la recta de regresión

Año A B C
1967 786 628 765
1968 846 708 876
1969 1332 1112 1020
1970 918 816 641
1971 912 830 918
1972 930 803 781
1973 1115 1020 849
1974 887 867 807
1975 800 1056 875
1976 857 847 947
1977 930 756 889
1978 966 918 799
1979 888 793 871
1980 915 1002 1000
1981 817 831 933
1982 999 797 849

Eje "x" = B Eje "y" = A

628 786 Eje "x" = B Eje "y" = A
708 846 628 786 CO. CORRELACION
1112 1332 708 846
816 918 1112 1332
830 912 816 918
803 930 803 930
1020 1115 1020 1115
867 887 867 887
1056 800 1056 800
847 857 847 857
756 930 756 930
918 966 793 888
793 888 1002 915
1002 915 831 817
831 817 797 999
797 999 PROMEDIO 860 930

Eje "x" = C Eje "y" = A

765 786 Eje "x" = B Eje "y" = A
876 846 765 786 CO. CORRELACION
1020 1332 876 846
 641 918 1020 1332
918 955 641 918
781 930 781 930
849 1115 849 1115
807 887 807 887
875 800 875 800
947 857 947 857
889 930 889 930
799 899 871 888
871 888 1000 915
1000 915 933 817
933 817 849 999
849 999 PROMEDIO 865 930
O. CORRELACION 0.59 Eje "y" = A
SX 19240.68132 138.711
1400
SY 20566.30769 143.41
1200
A 930
1000 f(x) = 0.6092459772x + 406.2225298732
B 0.61 R² = 0.3510658796
800

600

400

200

0
600 700 800 900 1000 1100

Eje "y" = A
O. CORRELACION 0.33 1400
SX 9656.576923 98.268
1200

1000
f(x) = 0.4752201568x + 519.1721744049
R² = 0.1113985613
800
 Eje "y" = A
1400

1200
SY 20566.30769 143.41
1000
f(x) = 0.4752201568x + 519.1721744049
A 930 800
R² = 0.1113985613
B 0.48
600

400

200

0
600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000
"=A

732

0 1000 1100 1200

y" = A

721744049
y" = A

721744049

850 900 950 1000 1050

 Análisis de consistencia

Año Estación A Estación B Prom. 15 Est.

1975 25 10 20
1976 24 5 10
1977 41 25 30
1978 5 15 20
1979 35 35 40
1980 45 30 20
1981 26 28 35
1982 54 27 25
1983 45 40 40
1984 40 17 35
1985 30 28 30
1986 47 29 20
1987 38 31 35
1988 55 32 40
1989 28 28 25
1990 37 20 25
1991 42 45
1992 38 25
1993 46 30
1994 59 45
1995 39 27 25
1996 51 15 30
1997 24 45 28
1998 51 40 47

y
ACUMULADO Año Estacion A Prom.de est. Ref. Acumulado estacion A
333.23 1938 335 347.5 335
599.33 1939 267.5 247.5 602.5
870.39 1940 272.5 252.5 875
1168.81 1941 300 342.5 1175
1499.56 1942 332.5 327.5 1507.5
1862.63 1943 365 330 1872.5
 2086.45 1944 225 272.5 2097.5
2379.89 1945 295 285 2392.5
2621.11 1946 242.5 255 2635
3004.09 1947 385 347 3020
3314.94 1948 312.5 325 3332.5
3600.92 1949 287.5 327.5 3620
3871.99 1950 272.5 230 3892.5
4217.66 1951 347.5 272.5 4240
4568.30 1952 352.5 330 4592.5
4826.93 1953 260 250 4852.5
5023.39 1954 197.5 220 5050
5354.14 1955 332.5 240 5382.5
5814.14 1956 460 255 5842.5
6227.14 1957 413 397.5 6255.5
6510.14 1958 283 272.5 6538.5
6775.14 1959 265 255 6803.5
7042.14 1960 267 257.5 7070.5
7307.64 1961 265.5 255 7336
7613.64 1962 306 295 7642
7853.14 1963 239.5 230 7881.5
8115.64 1964 262.5 255 8144
8480.64 1965 365 350 8509
8700.64 1966 220 210 8729
9000.64 1967 300 287.5 9029
9240.64 1968 240 227.5 9269
9555.64 1969 315 325 9584

Curva de doble masa

Eje y
Año Estación A Estación B Ac. Esta. A
1960 370 100 370
1962 434 120 804
1964 306 80 1110
1966 466 130 1576
1968 595 110 2171
1970 640 120 2811
1972 730 140 3541
1974 460 80 4001
1976 550 100 4551

6000

5000 f(x) = 5.3828983755x + 7.9466168875

Estacion A
R² = 0.9999468752

4000

3000

2000

f(x) = 3.6638058084x + 3.2509752926

1000 R² = 0.9998796389

0
0 200 400

Est A. (1960 - 1966) Li near (Est

Li near (Est. A Corregi da)
s de consistencia

Ac. Esta. A Ac. Est. B Ac. Prom 15 Est.

25 10 20
49 15 30
90 40 60
95 55 80 1000
130 90 120 900 f(x) = 1.2889804227x - 7.1007002981
175 120 140 R² = 0.9986719692
800

Estacion en analisis de consistencia

201 148 175 700
255 175 200
600 f(x) = 0.9192518817x - 13.3064395955
300 215 240 R² = 0.99868894
500
340 232 275
370 260 305 400
417 289 325 300
455 320 360 200
510 352 400 100
538 380 425
0
575 400 450 0 100 2
617 495
655 520
701 550
760 595
799 620
850 650
874 678
925 725

12000

10000
x y
Acumulado es. Ref. Corregido Estacion A correcion de Est.A. Graficamos acumulado de la estacion X
8000
347.5 333.23 333.23
595 599.33 266.09
847.5 870.39 271.06 6000

1190 1168.81 298.42 f(x) = 1.0256579617x - 45.05508736

1517.5 1499.56 330.75 4000 R² = 0.9992578918

1847.5 1862.63 363.08

2000

0
0 1000 2000 300
 6000

f(x) = 1.0256579617x - 45.05508736

4000 R² = 0.9992578918

2120 2086.45 223.81 2000

2405 2379.89 293.45
2660 2621.11 241.22
0
3007 3004.09 382.97 0 1000 2000 300
3332 3314.94 310.85
3659.5 3600.92 285.98
3889.5 3871.99 271.06
4162 4217.66 345.67
4492 4568.30 350.64
4742 4826.93 258.63
4962 5023.39 196.46 Año de inconsistencia 1956
5202 5354.14 330.75 Calculo de pendientes
5457 5842.5 460 Recta consistente
5854.5 6255.5 413 m1
6127 6538.5 283 1.0343
6382 6803.5 265 Calculo del factor de correcion
6639.5 7070.5 267 Fc
6894.5 7336 265.5
7189.5 7642 306 Grafico EE y EF corregido
7419.5 7881.5 239.5
7674.5 8144 262.5
8024.5 8509 365
8234.5 8729 220 12000.00

8522 9029 300

10000.00
8749.5 9269 240
f(x) = 1.0746686867x - 163.16109676
9074.5 9584 315 R² = 0.9990734016
8000.00

6000.00

4000.00

2000.00

0.00
0 1000 2000 3000

Eje x
Ac. Esta. B Pendiente Prom. Pend. Pend. Ecuac.
100 3.616667
220 3.825000 3.675427 3.6638
300 3.584615
430 5.409091
540 5.333333

5.441342 5.401
 660 5.214286
5.441342 5.401
800 5.750000
880 5.500000
980

Curva doble masica

3828983755x + 7.9466168875
999468752
f(x) = 5.4010484928x - 754.6094364351
R² = 0.9997516463

6638058084x + 3.2509752926
998796389

200 400 600 800 1000 120

Estacion B (patron)

0 - 1966) Li near (Est A. (1960 - 1966)) Est. A (1968- 1976) Li near (Est. A (1968- 1976)) Est. A Corregi da
t. A Corregi da)
 Curva doble masica
1000
900 f(x) = 1.2889804227x - 7.1007002981
R² = 0.9986719692
800
700
600 f(x) = 0.9192518817x - 13.3064395955
R² = 0.99868894
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Ac. Prom. de 15 Estaciones

Est. B Li nea r (Est. B) Est. A Li near (Est. A)

CURVA DOBLE MASICA

12000

10000
f(x) = 1.0377863349x + 180.5436974621
Graficamos acumulado de la estacion X y estacion de Referencia R² = 0.99998339
8000

6000

f(x) = 1.0256579617x - 45.0550873691

4000 R² = 0.9992578918

2000

0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
 6000

f(x) = 1.0256579617x - 45.0550873691

4000 R² = 0.9992578918

2000

0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

Año de inconsistencia 1956

Calculo de pendientes
Recta inconsistente
m2
1.0398
culo del factor de correcion
0.9947

Grafico EE y EF corregido

Est.corregida
12000.00

10000.00
f(x) = 1.0746686867x - 163.1610967603
R² = 0.9990734016
8000.00

6000.00

4000.00

2000.00

0.00
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

y_corr.
Est. A Corr. Ac. Est. A C.
545.436 545.436
639.782 1185.219
451.091 1636.309
686.955 2323.264
595 2918.264
 640 3558.264
730 4288.264
460 4748.264
550 5298.264

1000 1200

Est. A (1968- 1976)) Est. A Corregi da

 600 700 800

10000
10000
 Precipitación mensuales en Sibayo - Puno
Año Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio
1951 156.3 133.8 55.2 6.4 0 2.1 3.4
1952 126.3 163.9 152.2 15 0 0 0
1953 100.3 255.9 86 31.9 11.4 0 0
1954 123.6 154.4 221.6 17.8 18 6 3
1955 114.1 81.1 22.6 1.2 1.7 0 0
1956 122.4 164.7 150 3.5 0 27.1 0
1957 82.3 145.5 123.2 5.3 6.3 0 2.5
1958 64 131.9 102.6 25.1 7.9 1 0
1959 193.4 66.1 225.6 10.8 0 0.6 0
1960 152.4 152.3 91.1 55.1 28 0.8 0
Promedio 123.5 145.0 123.0 17.2 7.3 3.8 0.9

Precipitación anual media 571.7 Desviación estándar

Rango Precipitación anual mínima 248.5 Coef. de viariabilidad
Precipitación anual máxima 795.7
Distribución normal
Rango del 50% de los datos 466 678
Rango del 68% de los datos 413 730
Rango del 95% de los datos 254 889

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
ro
ne ro
150

100

50

0
o
er ro
En re zo
Fe
b ar ri l o
M Ab ay o
M ni lio
Ju Ju to
os br
e
re
Ag b e
em tu br
S et Oc em b
vi i em
No D ic

1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
es en Sibayo - Puno
Agosto Setiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Prec. Anual
3.1 33.6 1.4 6.8 56.5 458.6
0 0 9 76.4 76.4 619.2
0 0 11.5 29.9 27.1 554
0 5 21.3 22.8 160.9 754.4
0.4 2.2 0 11.2 14 248.5
0 8.7 5.8 1.6 97 580.8
2.7 13.8 24.2 31.2 24.9 461.9
0 5 5.9 9.7 213.5 566.6
6.1 24.1 29.9 68 52.9 677.5
24.8 17.7 6.3 103.5 163.7 795.7
3.7 11.0 11.5 36.1 88.7 571.7

159
27.8% Precipitacion anual en Sibayo - Puno
900

800 795.7
754.4
700 677.5
600 619.2
580.8 566.6
554
500
458.6 461.9
400

300
248.5
200

100

0
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962

1960
1959
1958
1957
1956
1955
1954
 1960
1959
1958
1957
1956
1955
1954
1953
1952
e 1951
br re
em b e
tu br e
S et Oc em br
vi em
No ci
Di

956 1957 1958 1959 1960

7

1962
 CAUDALES MENSUALES-ENERO
probalibidad de excesos P>x Caudal maximo mensual
Año m (m/N+1) - porcentaje weibul (m3/hora)
1975 1 4.76% 10.75 10.75
1976 2 9.52% 8.261 8.965
1977 3 14.29% 8.356 8.48
1978 4 19.05% 6.329 8.3621
1979 5 23.81% 5.428 8.356
1980 6 28.57% 7.092 8.261
1981 7 33.33% 5.857 7.9101
1982 8 38.10% 7.421 7.82
1983 9 42.86% 6.856 7.421
1984 10 47.62% 7.82 7.1201
1985 11 52.38% 8.965 7.092
1986 12 57.14% 5.758 6.856
1987 13 61.90% 7.9101 6.329
1988 14 66.67% 7.1201 6.255
1989 15 71.43% 8.3621 6.2051
1990 16 76.19% 5.7721 5.857
1991 17 80.95% 6.2051 5.7721
1992 18 85.71% 6.255 5.758
1993 19 90.48% 5.1261 5.428
1994 20 95.24% 8.48 5.1261
 10.75
8.965
8.48 Enero
8.3621 12
8.356
8.261 10
7.9101
8
7.82
7.421
Caudales

6 Enero
7.1201
7.092
4
6.856
6.329 2
6.255
6.2051 0
0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%
5.857
5.7721 Probabilidad de excesos
5.758
5.428
5.1261
 proyecto de irrigacion 75%
centrales hidroelectricas 90%
servicio humano 95%
Ene
71.43% 6.2051
75.00% 5.944025
76.19% 5.857
�=1 − (1/(1−𝑇𝑟))^�

R = probabilidad
Tr = periodo de retorno
n = años utles
Tiempo n Q [m3/s] Vol. [MM3]Vol. Ac [MM3]
Nov-75 1 38.53 99.86976 99.86976
Dec-75 2 22.76 58.99392 158.86368
Jan-76 3 73.72 191.08224 349.94592
Feb-76 4 251.19 651.08448 1001.0304
Mar-76 5 305.6 792.1152 1793.1456
Apr-76 6 281.02 728.40384 2521.54944
May-76 7 162.05 420.0336 2941.58304
Jun-76 8 136.6 354.0672 3295.65024
Jul-76 9 116.91 303.03072 3598.68096
Aug-76 10 103.98 269.51616 3868.19712
Sep-76 11 54.71 141.80832 4010.00544
Oct-76 12 33.84 87.71328 4097.71872
Nov-76 13 45.78 118.66176 4216.38048
Dec-76 14 64.69 167.67648 4384.05696
Jan-77 15 77.42 200.67264 4584.7296
Feb-77 16 160.25 415.368 5000.0976
Mar-77 17 197.82 512.74944 5512.84704
Apr-77 18 216.83 562.02336 6074.8704
May-77 19 112.81 292.40352 6367.27392
Jun-77 20 86.37 223.87104 6591.14496
Jul-77 21 65.19 168.97248 6760.11744
Aug-77 22 47.19 122.31648 6882.43392
Sep-77 23 38.3 99.2736 6981.70752
Oct-77 24 36.48 94.55616 7076.26368
Nov-77 25 16.27 42.17184 7118.43552
Dec-77 26 36.58 94.81536 7213.25088
Jan-78 27 37.55 97.3296 7310.58048
Feb-78 28 53.36 138.30912 7448.8896
Mar-78 29 85.45 221.4864 7670.376
Apr-78 30 96.7 250.6464 7921.0224
May-78 31 69.61 180.42912 8101.45152
Jun-78 32 68.17 176.69664 8278.14816
Jul-78 33 49.61 128.58912 8406.73728
Aug-78 34 57.06 147.89952 8554.6368
Sep-78 35 32.1 83.2032 8637.84
Oct-78 36 44.87 116.30304 8754.14304
Nov-78 37 22.37 57.98304 8812.12608
Dec-78 38 33.58 87.03936 8899.16544
Jan-79 39 38.48 99.74016 8998.9056
Feb-79 40 40.04 103.78368 9102.68928
Mar-79 41 180.9 468.8928 9571.58208
Apr-79 42 107.6 278.8992 9850.48128
May-79 43 62.65 162.3888 10012.8701
Jun-79 44 42.07 109.04544 10121.9155
Jul-79 45 38.1 98.7552 10220.6707
Aug-79 46 23.68 61.37856 10282.0493
Sep-79 47 24.07 62.38944 10344.4387
Oct-79 48 24.58 63.71136 10408.1501
Nov-79 49 12.37 32.06304 10440.2131
Dec-79 50 25.9 67.1328 10507.3459
Jan-80 51 31.19 80.84448 10588.1904
Feb-80 52 106.57 276.22944 10864.4198
Mar-80 53 101.1 262.0512 11126.471
Apr-80 54 137.33 355.95936 11482.4304
May-80 55 62.06 160.85952 11643.2899
Jun-80 56 55.27 143.25984 11786.5498
Jul-80 57 46.84 121.40928 11907.959
Aug-80 58 23.9 61.9488 11969.9078
Sep-80 59 22.93 59.43456 12029.3424
Oct-80 60 32.39 83.95488 12113.2973
Nov-80 61 23.4 60.6528 12173.9501
Dec-80 62 37.48 97.14816 12271.0982
Jan-81 63 30.42 78.84864 12349.9469
Feb-81 64 57.29 148.49568 12498.4426
Mar-81 65 213.52 553.44384 13051.8864
Apr-81 66 95.33 247.09536 13298.9818
May-81 67 43.68 113.21856 13412.2003
Jun-81 68 38.62 100.10304 13512.3034
Jul-81 69 27.62 71.59104 13583.8944
Aug-81 70 11.48 29.75616 13613.6506
Sep-81 71 11.4 29.5488 13643.1994
Oct-81 72 15.68 40.64256 13683.8419
Nov-81 73 9.47 24.54624 13708.3882
Dec-81 74 23.87 61.87104 13770.2592
Jan-82 75 44.19 114.54048 13884.7997
Feb-82 76 65.71 170.32032 14055.12
Mar-82 77 59.29 153.67968 14208.7997
Apr-82 78 79.33 205.62336 14414.423
May-82 79 51.1 132.4512 14546.8742
Jun-82 80 36.2 93.8304 14640.7046
Jul-82 81 35.13 91.05696 14731.7616
Aug-82 82 25.35 65.7072 14797.4688
Sep-82 83 16.5 42.768 14840.2368
Oct-82 84 33.06 85.69152 14925.9283
Nov-82 85 41.03 106.34976 15032.2781
Dec-82 86 163.94 424.93248 15457.2106
Jan-83 87 359.95 932.9904 16390.201
Feb-83 88 377.36 978.11712 17368.3181
Mar-83 89 467.58 1211.96736 18580.2854
Apr-83 90 517.67 1341.80064 19922.0861
May-83 91 310 803.52 20725.6061
Jun-83 92 184.3 477.7056 21203.3117
Jul-83 93 116.42 301.76064 21505.0723
Aug-83 94 71.68 185.79456 21690.8669
Sep-83 95 61.77 160.10784 21850.9747
Oct-83 96 83.97 217.65024 22068.625
Nov-83 97 45.63 118.27296 22186.8979
Dec-83 98 89.65 232.3728 22419.2707
Jan-84 99 86.26 223.58592 22642.8566
Feb-84 100 376.86 976.82112 23619.6778
Mar-84 101 319.97 829.36224 24449.04
Apr-84 102 269.9 699.5808 25148.6208
May-84 103 120.61 312.62112 25461.2419
Jun-84 104 101.7 263.6064 25724.8483
Jul-84 105 68.74 178.17408 25903.0224
Aug-84 106 39.39 102.09888 26005.1213
Sep-84 107 22.87 59.27904 26064.4003
Oct-84 108 48.32 125.24544 26189.6458
Nov-84 109 24.8 64.2816 26253.9274
Dec-84 110 41 106.272 26360.1994
Jan-85 111 56.97 147.66624 26507.8656
Feb-85 112 62.96 163.19232 26671.0579
Mar-85 113 67.32 174.49344 26845.5514
Apr-85 114 58.47 151.55424 26997.1056
May-85 115 54.58 141.47136 27138.577
Jun-85 116 55.57 144.03744 27282.6144
Jul-85 117 33.52 86.88384 27369.4982
Aug-85 118 31.13 80.68896 27450.1872
Sep-85 119 11.86 30.74112 27480.9283
Oct-85 120 19.24 49.87008 27530.7984 curva masa
Nov-85 121 12.57 32.58144 27563.3798 30000
Dec-85 122 27.23 70.58016 27633.96
volumen acumulado (MMC)

Jan-86 123 58.84 152.51328 27786.4733 25000

Feb-86 124 137.71 356.94432 28143.4176 20000
Mar-86 125 110.61 286.70112 28430.1187
Apr-86 126 147.73 382.91616 28813.0349 15000

May-86 127 81.97 212.46624 29025.5011 10000

Jun-86 128 40.33 104.53536 29130.0365
5000
Jul-86 129 43.9 113.7888 29243.8253
Aug-86 130 26.32 68.22144 29312.0467 0
1 32 63 9
Sep-86 131 31.63 81.98496 29394.0317
Oct-86 132 22.71 58.86432 29452.896 tempo (meses)
 vol
0
1 32 63 9
tempo (meses)
Nov-86 133 29.33 76.02336 29528.9194
Dec-86 134 46.65 120.9168 29649.8362

caudal medio
 curva masa

32 63 94 124
tempo (meses)
32 63 94 124
tempo (meses)

85.0779851