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Epidemiology and geo-referencing of the dengue fever in a hospital of second level in
Colombia, 2010–2014
Laura Mercedes Hernández, Diego Fernando Durán, David Alexis Buitrago, Carlos Alberto Garnica,
Luisa Fernanda Gómez, Diego Mauricio Bados∗, Marilyn Paola Bernal, Lisa María Páez
Research Group in Infectology and Epidemiology, University of Tolima, Ibague, Colombia
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history: Received 21 April 2017 Received in revised form 7 November 2017 Accepted 6 December 2017
Keywords: Dengue fever Endemic diseases Epidemiology Maps
a b s t r a c t
Background: Dengue fever is a priority problem for public health in Colombia. The Department of Tolima and the municipality
of El Espinal bring a considerable proportion of the cases to national statistics, becoming a representative area for studying the
behavior of this pathology. Objective: Determine the epidemiological behavior and the geographic distribution of dengue fever
cases treated in the San Rafael Hospital in the municipality of the El Espinal, from 2010 to 2014. Materials and methods: The
following is a retrospective cross-sectional case report study of the population with dengue fever treated in San Rafael Hospital.
We analyzed data from the mandatory clinical reports of the SIVIGILA (National public health surveillance system, in Spanish)
using Excel, EpiInfo and EpiMap were analyzed. The epidemiological analysis encompassed morbidity, mortality, fatality,
endemicity and cartograms of georeferencing, among others. Results: The totality of cases was 3264, with an incidence of 5.84
per 1000 inhabitants, mortality of 0.12 cases per 10,000 inhabitants, and lethality of 0.11 per 100 diagnosed cases. 71.6% of the
patients were between 1 and 24 years, 53.8% were male and 46.2% female. The endemic behaviour was bimodal, Max in
epidemiological periods 3–4 and 12–13. The distribution geographic of cases spanned the whole of the municipality and is
related apparently with the population density in an area defined. Conclusions: The results found are above local, national and
international parameters on incidence, mor- tality, and case-fatality. Through the analysis of endemic behavior and geographic
distribution, times and specific areas are provided to optimize public health measures.
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Limited on behalf of King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. This
is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Introduction
Dengue fever is a viral infection transmitted by vectors from further spread in the world [1] and is considered a priority prob-
lem in public health in tropical and subtropical areas, with a large epidemiological impact, social and economic [2,3]. It is
estimated that currently 40% of the world’s population live in endemic areas and has an increased risk of infection [4]. The
disease is caused by the virus of the dengue, of which is known four serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3 and DENV-4), and
its vector main in the Ameri- cas is the mosquito Aedes aegypti, followed of Aedes albopictus [5,6]. This infection causes a wide
symptomatic spectrum ranging from a
∗
Corresponding author at: Metaima 1 Apt 201 Bloque D3, Colombia. E-mail address: diegoconques@gmail.com (D.M. Bados).
mild clinical profile to dengue with warning signs, and can evolve to severe dengue, with an annual global report close to
500,000 cases, with a large proportion of pediatric population, and approximately 2.5% of them will die [5].
In Colombia, the incidence of the disease has increased in recent years, from 5.2 cases/100,000 inhabitants in the 1990s to
18.1 cases/100,000 inhabitants in the past 5 years, with a mortality of 0.07 cases/100,000 inhabitants in the 1990s to 0.19
cases/100,000 inhabitants in this decade [7,8]. For epidemiological week 52 of 2015, the departments with a higher incidence in
Colombia with a report of 80.2% of cases were, Valle del Cauca, Tolima, San- tander, Antioquia, Meta, Huila, Cesar, Norte de
Santander, Quindio, Cundinamarca, Atlantico and Sucre [9]. For severe dengue, Tolima occupies the first place, followed of
Valle del Cauca and Huila [9]. In terms of municipalities, El Espinal by its geographical conditions (altitude: 323 m above the sea
level) and environmental (climate: Tropical with a T◦ average 29 ◦C and a large agricultural activity as
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2017.12.005 1876-0341/© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Limited on behalf of King
Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jiph
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rice-growing, among others) is considered a hiperendemic area and with high risk factors that are represented in the higher
number of cases reported of dengue fever in the country, along with Acacias, Melgar, Ibague, Yopal, San Gil, Aguazul, Calarca,
Garzón, Armenia and Cali, municipalities which reported an incidence above 600 cases/100,000 inhabitants [9]. Regarding
severe dengue, Ibague and spinal occupy the top two positions more cases reported, followed by Neiva and Aguazul, with
incidences over 10.6 cases/100,000 inhabitants. Considering that the municipality of El Espinal has an approximate 76,226
inhabitants, of which 73.19% correspond to the urban area and the remaining 25.81% to rural areas [9,10], is evidenced a
problem of great impact and a panorama of diffi- cult approach for all health institutions of the municipality and a growing
problem of public health in the country [8,11].
Currently, the systems of information georeferenced (GIS) pro- vide an important tool of work, that facilitates the inclusion of
a spacial component and temporary by means of cartograms, to the epidemiological studies, integrating medical information,
geographical data, environmental and socio-economic variables, between others, with disciplines as it Biostatistics, geography
and technologies of information [12], to present the situation geo-space of different infectious diseases as for example the dengue
fever and in this way improve the detection of outbreaks, vector control oper- ations and establish decision-making in a
geographic context based on the detected areas of greater risk [13].
The objective of this research is to describe the epidemiological, clinical and geographical characteristics of the disease in the
last 5 years in patients that consulted for dengue fever at the Hospital San Rafael (HSR) of El Espinal, most important level II
clinical institution of the region.
Materials and methods
An observational, descriptive, and retrospective study on cases of dengue that consulted the period between January 1, 2010
to December 31, 2014, in the HSR, whose epidemiological reports were reported to the surveillance system in public health
(SIVIG- ILA) and compiled in a database by the unit of epidemiology of the hospital. The cases include the whole of the
population with- out distinction of age or gender, including likely case of dengue, likely case of severe dengue, case confirmed
by laboratory, case confirmed by epidemiological nexus, or decease by dengue, accord- ing to the operational definitions of the
World health Organization (WHO) and the SIVIGILA [7]. Cases that were not complete or had not readable information, cases
reported in other IPS, patients who did not live in the town or had no registered residential address were excluded.
Plan of analysis
A description of the socio-demographic characteristics and clin- ics was carried out: age, gender, symptoms, classification,
conduct and final condition, considering the variables registered in the epi- demiological notification form reported by the HSR.
In laboratories are evaluated: leukocyte count, hemoconcentration > 20%, initial count of platelet and control, and IgM Elisa for
dengue. Urban and rural distribution, and georeferencing of cases by the construction of the respective cartograms for the studied
variables were evalu- ated for geographic features.
Categorical variables are presented as percentages with con- fidence intervals of 95%, and absolute and relative frequency;
continuous variables are displayed with average, median and mode as measures of central tendency, and the standard deviation,
vari- ance, coefficient of variation, minimum and maximum value and percentiles as measures of dispersion. Information
obtained from
the incidence of dengue fever in the last 5 years of the cases reported by the HSR of El Espinal, organized by 13 epidemiological
periods, was used for the realization of the endemic channels, using the median and percentiles 25 and 75 to determine areas of
the curve. For the georeferencing, was taken the home addresses of the database, subsequently were generated coordinates of
geograph- ical location obtained with the tool of Google Maps (latitude and longitude), for the rural cases, was followed the same
method, the main difference is that the location is gave by sidewalks instead of addresses, therefore, is established a central point,
common for each of them. After this information was incorporated into the database, it was introduced into the Software Epi Map
by Epi InfoTM, this statistical system generated automatically the cartograms of the municipality with the representation of the
cases per certain variables, classified all the cases in rural and urban areas, geo- graphical location, according to gender, age
groups, final condition, dengue with signs of alarm and severe dengue. For the delimita- tion of the rural area, sidewalks are
graphically demarcate through Adobe Illustrator CC 2015, taking as a reference the municipal- ity cartographic documents
provided by the mayor’s office of El Espinal.
For the processing of data were use the statistical packages of Microsoft Excel
®
2013 and Epi InfoTM 7 [14] with its tool Epi Map of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the
United States (CDC).
This study, presented the same limitations that others studies retrospective, it had not the possibility of control the initial col-
lection of data or the correct processing of them forms. As regard to the integrity and quality of the data to entering into the refer-
ence base, was use an instrument designed with closed and specific answers that do not allow variability between observers,
reducing the biases of information.
Ethical considerations
The present study is under the international regulations, with the Declaration of Helsinki of the World Medical Association
(WMA) [15], by the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) and according to national regulations
of Colombia with the resolution number 008430 of 1993 of the Ministry of health of Colombia [16]. At the departmental level
was approved for the information acquisition by the Committee of epidemiology of the San Rafael Hospital in El Espinal. The
Ethics Committee and research of the University of Tolima approved the protocol. With these considerations, was raise a
research without risk to the human integrity, without any intervention direct and deliberate to the population of study.
Results
Epidemiological characteristics
In total, the SRH reported 3920 cases of dengue, of which 3264 (83.2%) were admitted to the study and 656 (16.8%) were
excluded. Of the latter, 553 (14.1%) came from others municipalities, while 103 (2.6%) did not have the data needed to be
referenced.
3264 of probable dengue cases notified in the HSR to the SIVIG- ILA system of the municipality of El Espinal, were study in
the period between January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014.
Table 1 shows the calculation of the incidence, mortality, and case-fatality rate of patients with a diagnosis of dengue fever in
El Espinal for the designated period. The incidence and mortality is calculated with the number total of consults in the hospital,
finding 2.73 cases per 1000 consults for the 2010, 1.94 for the 2011, 2.14 for the 2012, 8.28 for the 2013 and 14.14 for the 2014,
denoting
Please cite this article in press as: Hernández LM, et al. Epidemiology and geo-referencing of the dengue fever in a hospital of
second level in Colombia, 2010–2014. J Infect Public Health (2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2017.12.005
ARTICLE G Model JIPH-850; No. of Pages 8
IN PRESS L.M. Hernández et al. / Journal of Infection and Public Health xxx (2017) xxx–xxx 3
Table 1 Incidence, mortality, and case-fatality rate, annual and total of cases with a diagnosis of dengue. El Espinal, Tolima,
2010–2014.
Year Cases Decease Consultations Incidencea Mortalityb Fatalityc
2010 425 0 155,347 2.73 0 0 2011 339 0 174,386 1.94 0 0 2012 435 0 202,889 2.14 0 0 2013 901 3 108,758 8.28 0.28 0.33 2014
1164 3 82,290 14.14 0.36 0.26 Total 3264 6 723,670 4.51 0.08 0.18
a Incidence calculated per 1000 consultations in the SRH. b Mortality estimated by 10,000 consultations to the SRH. c Fatality
per 100 cases.
an increase of the incidence for the two last years studied. Not is presented cases of mortality of the 2010 to the 2012, but for the
years 2013 and 2014, the mortality was of 0.28 and 0.36, per 10000 consultations (6 decease in total for the 5 years), while the
fatality was of 0.33 and 0.25, per 100 cases, respectively.
Socio-demographic and clinical features
The age of presentation of the disease (Fig. 1) shows as average 21 years (standard deviation = 19, 42), with a median of 14
years, where 71.6% of the patients were between 1 and 24 years. The age minimum of presentation was of 1 year and the
maximum of 98 years, matching with the parameters of dispersion that show to the age as a variable very general within this
group (coefficient of variation: 91%). Multiple socio-demographic and clinics variables were considered (Table 2).
Endemic channel
With the information obtained from the incidence of dengue fever on the SRH, the endemic disease behavior channel was
built for five years, organized by average according to the 13 epidemio-
Fig. 1. Frequency of distribution of the age variable of patients with diagnosis of dengue in El Espinal (2010–2014).
logical periods of the National Institute of health (Instituto Nacional de Salud, INS). It is identified that during periods 3–4 and
12–13 occur higher incidences, so the hiperendemia levels are highest in number of cases, establishing that more than 170
approximately are required cases to declare an epidemic in these epidemiological periods. In counterpart for the periods 10 and
11 the necessary lev- els range between 120 and 130, that is, a difference of more than 50 cases in the same year (Fig. 2).
Territorial characteristics
The cases are located in urban and rural area with a proportion of 74.9% and 25.1% respectively. The possibility of statistical
asso- ciation between housing area (urban and rural) and the presence of cases of dengue fever were evaluate using the
Chi-square test of independence with a value of X2 = 5.15, g.l.: 1, p = 0.025 and a mea- sure of strength of association OR of
1.09 (CI 95%: 1.0128–1.1905), with a significant statistical association between territorial and dis- ease.
Table 2 Percentage distribution of the socio-demographic and clinical features of the cases of dengue in El Espinal (2010–2014).
Categorías N (cases) Percentage Confidence interval 95%
Sexo Male 1758 53.9% (52.1%–55.6%) Female 1506 46.1% (44.4%–47.9%)
Symptoms Fever 3219 98.6% (98.1%–99.0%) Myalgias 2859 87.6% (86.4%–88.7%) Cephalea 2389 73.2% (71.6%–74.7%)
Arthralgias 1649 50.5% (48.8%–52.3%) Abdominal pain 1149 35.2% (33.6%–36.9%) Emesis 1132 34.7% (33.0%–36.4%)
Retrorbicular Pain 928 28.4% (26.9%–30.0%) Diarrhea 535 16.4% (15.2%–17.7%) Rash 436 13.4% (12.2%–14.6%) Petechiae
189 (5.0%–6.7%) Hepatomegaly 129 5.8% (5.2%–7.3%) Conjunctival hyperaemia 91 4.3% (3.5%–5.3%) Tachycardia 70 3.3%
(2.6%–4.2%) Hypotensión 52 1.6% (1.2%–2.1%) Others 253 7.8% (4.8%–9.8%)
Clasification Dengue fever without warning signs 1545 47.3% (45.6%–49.1%) Dengue fever with warning signs 1333 40.8%
(39.2%–42.6%) Severe dengue 132 4.0% (3.4%–4.8%) Non-classified 254 7.8% (6.9%–8.8%)
Management Ambulatory 1530 46.9% (45.2%–48.6%) Hospitalization 1118 34.3% (32.6%–35.9%) Non-especific 254 7.8%
(6.9%–8.8%) Observation 232 7.1% (6.3%–8.1%) intensive care unit 130 4.0% (3.4%–4.7%)
Final condition Alive 3258 99.8% (99.6%–99.9%)
Decease 6 0.1% (0.1%–0.4%)
Please cite this article in press as: Hernández LM, et al. Epidemiology and geo-referencing of the dengue fever in a hospital of
second level in Colombia, 2010–2014. J Infect Public Health (2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2017.12.005
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Fig. 3. General distribution of the cases of dengue in the municipality of El Espinal, urban and rural area, 2010–2014. Copyright
2015 Bing Microsoft/Epi Map Epi InfoTM 7.
The cases are distributed by territorial unit, according to communes (in Colombia, a subdivision of a city, groups several
neighborhoods) and neighborhoods for urban areas, and “cor- regimientos” (It’s a political division in Colombia, smaller than a
city, and depends of a city) and “veredas” (Other political division, smaller than a corregimiento, and depends of a corregimiento)
for the rural area, presenting at least one case in each sector for each year.
Georeferencing of cases of dengue
The general distribution of cases of dengue fever in the rural and urban areas (Fig. 3) shows a pattern of distribution grouped
throughout the municipality, related to areas of greater population density, corresponding to urban area of El Espinal and
Chicoral, these provide respectively 75.9% and 6.5% of the cases. Delimiting
the area rural, of greater extension territorial and lower density population, corresponds a 17.6% of all the cases reported. In the
latter, are evident distribution patterns that show a greater num- ber of cases towards the Northwest, mainly towards the area that
corresponds to the “corregimiento” of Chicoral and its surround- ings; also, presents a number of cases to the Southwest and
West in general, with fewer in direction South-East and East; however it can be inferred that the distribution is dispersed and is
not possi- ble to associate a pattern for a specific “vereda” or locality in those regions. In urban areas (Fig. 4) stands out the
peripheral areas with the highest density of cases, mainly the peripheral areas of the East and north; it is of marked importance to
highlight the presence of the disease in all the municipality. The graphic representation of the cases of dengue fever without
warning signs, dengue with warning signs and severe dengue, show a distribution of similar characteristics to those mentioned
above.
Please cite this article in press as: Hernández LM, et al. Epidemiology and geo-referencing of the dengue fever in a hospital of
second level in Colombia, 2010–2014. J Infect Public Health (2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2017.12.005
Fig. 2. Endemic channel of the behavior of dengue for epidemiological periods in El Espinal (2010–2014).
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L.M. Hernández et al. / Journal of Infection and Public Health xxx (2017) xxx–xxx 5
Fig. 4. Urban distribution by homes and neighborhoods of cases of dengue in the municipality of El Espinal, 2010–2014.
Copyright 2015 Bing Microsoft/Epi Map Epi InfoTM 7.
Table 3 Percentage distribution of laboratory tests reported of cases of dengue in El Espinal (2010–2014).
Laboratory test Na % Positiveb % Confidence interval 95%
Leukocyte count <5000/mm3 1507 46.17 644 42.7 (40.2–45.3) Haemoconcentration >20% 1393 42.68 11 0.8 (0.4–1.5) Initial
platelet count <100 000/mm3 1509 46.23 332 22.0 (19.9–24.2) control platelets count <100 000/mm3 1352 41.42 396 29.3
(26.9–31.8) Positive Elisa IgM for dengue 509 15.59 248 48.7 (44.3–53.2)
a N: number of cases with reported laboratory. b Positive: number of cases with positive laboratory for described test.
For final status were present, 5 cases of mortality at the urban area and 1 case on the “vereda” Agua Blanca Baja (“vereda”
number 11) (Table 3).
According to the demographic variables, were determined the geographical distribution of cases by gender and age groups.
For the distribution by gender, is equitable for men and women, and similar in relation to the general distribution of dengue cases
seen above (Fig. 5). For age groups were presented a graphical information of groups 0–14 years and 15–24 years, because they
have greatest pro- portion (71.6%) in the population studied, an equitable distribution of cases throughout the territory and in the
urban area there is evidence of a prevalence towards the periphery, mainly eastward (Fig. 6). The other 5 age groups show a
uniform distribution of cases throughout the territory.
In our country an epidemiological link is used for the diagnosis of dengue and the epidemiological records are filled (base of
informa- tion for the study) without having the case confirmed by laboratory sample adapting to the policies of the ministry of
health. Go to the policies of our country. (This clarification was adequate to the final manuscript). I hope that the editorial team
understands the reason why we can not accept this suggestion and that we do not deny that it is valid in the context in which it
can be carried out.
Discussion
In recent years, El Espinal has been characterized as one of the municipalities at departmental and national levels that presents
more cases of dengue fever and severe dengue, becoming hiperen- demic area of the country [17,18]. Presents an average
incidence of 451 cases/100,000 consultation for the last 5 years, an alarm- ing amount, in context with the incidence data from
the Americas with a value of 282.4 cases/100,000 in the last 5 years [19,20] and Colombia of 355 cases/100,000 in 2015 [9].
Despite there is two types of different incidences, is possible infer that this behavior would be related with socio-demographic
variable characteris- tic of a developing country and meteorological own of a tropical region. In the studied population was found
a trend towards the increase of cases towards the years 2013 and 2014, 828 and 1414 cases/100,000 consultation, respectively;
Americas during those same years arose a population incidence of 455.9 cases/100,000 inhabitants for the 2013 193.7
cases/100,000 inhabitants by 2014, also as the two years coinciding with larger number of reported cases of dengue fever and
severe dengue in the past five years [19–21]. These data could be explained with the cyclic behavior of the disease and the
reentry of serotypes, which would lead to
Please cite this article in press as: Hernández LM, et al. Epidemiology and geo-referencing of the dengue fever in a hospital of
second level in Colombia, 2010–2014. J Infect Public Health (2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2017.12.005
ARTICLE IN PRESS G Model JIPH-850; No. of Pages 8
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Fig. 5. Urban and rural distribution of cases of dengue fever according to gender in El Espinal, 2010–2014. (A) Urban
distribution of female cases of dengue. (B) Urban distribution of male cases of dengue. (C) Rural distribution of female cases of
dengue. (D) Rural distribution of male cases of dengue. Copyright 2015 Bing Microsoft/Epi Map Epi InfoTM 7.
the presentation of endemic peaks every 3 or 4 years, expected behavior that is documented in other studies.
The distribution by gender reports equitable amounts, with a slight trend to the increase for the male gender with a 54% vs
46% for the female gender. This finding can be due to this disease have not preponderance between one another gender, however,
in dif- ferent studies is has found a light trend upward for the cases in males [22–24], for the 2015 at national level is found a
proportion of 51.6% for men and 48.4% for women [9], a possible explana- tion can be a greater exposure of the male gender to
the disease especially explained by socio-demographic features of the region [25,26], within them are an agricultural economy
with mainly work of male gender, which would lead to a possible greater exposure to the vector.
The 1–24 years age group presents the greatest number of cases; at the national level by 2015 [9] 34% of reported cases
correspond to the population under 14 years old, in the Valle del Cauca [22] for the years 2009–2013 showed one higher
proportion of cases for aged between 10 and 14 years; amount that generate increasing concern by an increased risk of severe
dengue in the pediatric pop- ulation [23,27,28]. Is important to keep in mind a possible greater susceptibility of the pediatric
population of the region to the dis- ease probably associated to factors of their immune system, Being the pediatric population
especially vulnerable is recommends the realization of studies that allow the identification of factors that involved in the
presentation of severe dengue in the child popu- lation, to develop strategies of health public for the reduction of these figures.
Dengue fever is characterized by its variability in clinical pre- sentation, the first five reported symptoms were fever,
myalgias, cephalea, arthralgia and abdominal pain very similar to other stud-
ies at national and international level [24,27,29], in Bucaramanga Ref. [29] found that the 5 first symptoms were fever,
osteomyal- gias, asthenia, headache and vomiting, however they found that retroocular pain and arthralgias presented amounts
lower than the present study. The with hemorrhagic manifestations presented a low proportion (15.9%), Ref. [20] found a
presentation in Cali of 34.8% of hemorrhagic manifestations and at the India found a 40% in such manifestations [24], the most
common presentations were petechiae, hyperemia and epistaxis, for Cavalcanti et al. [29] the most common was epistaxis. About
neurological manifestations is presented the seizures with a 0.10% (2 cases) in comparison with the study [23] that found a 1.4%
and that of Londo ̃no et al. [30] with 14%. These clinical values show a heterogeneous presentation of the disease showing a
high proportion of classic symptoms both in the current epidemiological characterization and at the national and international
levels [33,36,37].
The endemic channel features a bimodal trend and epidemiolog- ical peaks are in the epidemiological periods 3–4 and 12–13
with a decrease in periods 6–11; at the national level by 2015 [9], endemic channel of the disease showed a peak in periods 4–6
and another slight increase in periods 11–13, with a decrease in the period 9–10. In Cali, Karoli et al. [23] reported also a rise of
the cases in those periods 1–5 and a descent towards the period 13; in Bucaramanga [29], it showed rise in those periods 5–6 and
8–9; And in Medellín [30], for the period 2001–2007 was an increase of the transmission towards February – April (periods 2–4)
and another more marked towards September – December (9–13 periods).
It is worth highlighting that the epidemiological peaks found in the endemic channel 3–4 and 12–13 correspond to periods
where there are increased rainfall in the region and which are explained by the bimodal rainfall regimes of Colombia [31],
therefore, can
Please cite this article in press as: Hernández LM, et al. Epidemiology and geo-referencing of the dengue fever in a hospital of
second level in Colombia, 2010–2014. J Infect Public Health (2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2017.12.005
ARTICLE IN PRESS G Model JIPH-850; No. of Pages 8
L.M. Hernández et al. / Journal of Infection and Public Health xxx (2017) xxx–xxx 7
Fig. 6. Map of the location of the municipality of El Espinal in the Department of Tolima, Colombia. Source: Municipality of EL
ESPINAL. Available in: http://www.elespinal-tolima.gov. co/mapas municipio.shtml?apc=bcxx-1-&x=1692906
be inferred that factors such as the decrease in temperature and relative humidity play an important role in increasing numbers of
cases of dengue in a population, that favor the specific conditions to the development of the vector. Similarly, should be
considered that the population studied has a high agricultural component that focuses mostly on rice and has a major supply
basins which can generate water stagnation and become a factor of potential risk for the population [32].
In the territorial distribution is presented the data in urban and rural area with a greater proportion towards the area urban,
through the chi-square test is concludes that the risk of dengue is independent of the area urban or rural. For urban distribution,
the commune 1 (54.7% of the total geographical area) presents itself as the commune that has many cases reported, with 44.5%
of the total urban cases. For rural areas, the “corregimiento” 1 reported 34% of cases coinciding with the presence of Chicoral, a
rural area with a high proportion of inhabitants and with an amount of 6.54% of the cases reported. It’s presents a general
distribution of them cases in all the municipality and a greater urban trend, that can be associate to the areas of greater population
density with an significant statis- tics association, similar to what reported in other researches [33].
High population density is a risk factor to present a higher inci- dence of dengue in a particular population, since the vector
has the possibility to be in contact with a greater number of inhabitants, and there are different serotypes, so cross immunity is
not a tool of control of this disease; in the particular case of El Espinal, den- sity is 329.98 (inhabitants/km2), a significant
number compared to other regions such as: Chaparral 21 (inhabitants/km2), Natagaima 26 (inhabitants/km2), Purificacion 66
(inhabitants/km2).
Please cite this article in press as: Hernández LM, et al. Epidemiology and geo-referencing of the dengue fever in a hospital of
second level in Colombia, 2010–2014. J Infect Public Health (2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2017.12.005
Worth to mention the possible bias that represents that sample population are the cases that consults to the San Rafael
Hospital in el Espinal, that make spreading the distribution in greater proportion to the area surrounding the hospital, located in
the northeastern part of the urban area of the city at 4th Street # 6-29. However, it is important to emphasize that it is the main
public level II hos- pital of reference in the region-Central-East of the Department of Tolima, receiving references from
municipalities such as the own Espinal, Coello, Flanders, Guamo, San Luis, Suarez, Carmen de Api- calá, Melgar, Cunday,
Villarica and Icononzo, therefore the sample taken from the consultations carried out by the hospital is very representative and
with low bias regarding the case localization.
Currently, the geographical representation of dengue is a tool that is gaining strength at the national and international levels.
In Latin America, especially in Mexico, Cuba, Colombia and Brazil [34] have reported various studies that have used the GIS. In
the State of Oaxaca, Mexico in the year 2012, determined the areas of greater intensity in outbreaks of cases and thus establish
actions at the level of jurisdiction. In la Guajira, Colombia [35] in 2013 arose a unfa- vorable trend to the West of the
Department, especially in urban areas, where maximum grouping areas coincide with the surfaces of area of increased risk for the
disease. In recent years, the bene- fits of geographical representation with the use of cartograms was potentializing in the country
and it is hoped that this work can con- tinue to contribute to the spatial analysis of infectious diseases in the region.
Within the limitations of the study is presented the lack of a factor of statistical association of risk that explains the tendency
of some variables and the geographical distribution of the cases presented, as that was not the objective of the study. It required a
greater coverage of data for the complete analysis of the behavior of the disease in the municipality covering all the institutions of
health that reported cases to the SIVIGILA along with others insti- tutions of other disciplines to perform wider characterizations
that include, for example: weather features of the area. It is important to note that the data obtained during this study come from
the most important hospital of the municipality, however by not encompass all institutions providing health services of the
municipality it is not possible to establish a representation of cases of dengue in El Espinal in comparison with the rest of the
country, although this is a first approach to the pathology at municipal level is makes indispensable continue the investigative
process that allow char- acterize fully the municipality and with it the Department of the Tolima. Also, is highlight as a limitation
the lack of extensive infor- mation from laboratory tests realized to patients to determine more accurately the severity of the
disease.
Finally, can conclude that the activities of health public must be more frequently in the periods 3–4 and 12–13, as well as
imple- ment strategies specific to the control of the vector in areas as the commune 1, that represents the site with greater number
of cases during them 5 years studied; this to treat to decrease the incidence of dengue in this population. Is recommended follow
the process of research of this disease in the municipality and in the Department of the Tolima by the wide distribution of the
dengue, to give conti- nuity to studies of risk Association and to strategies of intervention that allow to follow the way towards
the control of the diseases transmitted by vectors.
Conflict of interest
The authors express that there is no conflict of interest in the manuscript.
Financing
Researchers’ ownresources.
ARTICLE G Model JIPH-850; No. of Pages 8 IN PRESS 8 L.M. Hernández et al. / Journal of Infection and Public Health xxx
(2017) xxx–xxx
Acknowledgements
To the San Rafael Hospital from El Espinal by authorizing the use of the database reported to the SIVIGILA and thus promote
research of pathology in its coverage area.
To the microbiologist Julia Esther Gallego Santos, teaching pro- fessor in the area of infectious diseases from the Universidad del
Tolima, by the constant support and assistance and for providing us with the knowledge necessary for the realization of the
project. The doctor and epidemiologist Diego Fernando Escobar García, teacher of the medicine program of the University of
Tolima, for providing us with the tools and knowledge needed for the statistical analysis of the data.
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Please cite this article in press as: Hernández LM, et al. Epidemiology and geo-referencing of the dengue fever in a hospital of
second level in Colombia, 2010–2014. J Infect Public Health (2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2017.12.005