Energy Policy xxx (2018) xxx-xxx

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China Pakistan Economic Corridor and Pakistan’s energy security: A meta-analytic
review
Salik uddin Ahmeda⁠ ,⁠ ⁎⁠ , Amjad Alia⁠ ,⁠ b⁠ , Dileep Kumarc⁠ , Muhammad Zeeshan Malikd⁠ , Abdul Hameed Memona⁠

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a
Faculty of Engineering Sciences and Technology (FEST), Hamdard University Karachi, 74600, Pakistan
b
Centre of Research Excellence in Renewable Energy (CoRE), King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
c
Department of Electronic Engineering, University College of Engineering and Technology, Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan
d
Faculty of Automation, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai’an, China

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords:

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China Pakistan Economic Corridor
Energy security
China Pakistan Economic Corridor has been touted by many as a gateway to economic prosperity and stability
in Pakistan. It accompanies great potential in terms of solving the ongoing energy crisis and eventually leading
Pakistan towards energy security. In this respect, a meta-analytic review has been conducted to identify the un-
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Concern derlying concerns that can hinder the successful achievement of energy security though China Pakistan Economic
Correlation
Corridor energy projects. This meta-analysis has revealed strong evidence supporting achievement of Pakistan's
Negative effect
energy security dream (89%) along with five main distressing factors which are economic burden (22.22%),
security threat (38.89%), project completion delays (22.22%), lack of project feasibility studies (22.22%) and
provincial conflict (50%). Additionally, statistically significant strong negative correlation between energy secu-
rity and economic burden is unearthed with Spearman's rho-value of − 0.759. Moreover, strong negative corre-
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lation exists between energy security and project completion delays with rho-value of − 0.500 and P-value of
0.035. Also, project feasibility and project completion delays is found to have a very strong positive correlation
as well with rho-value of 0.709 and P-value of 0.001. These findings will assist policy makers and strategists
in formulating limitation frameworks for the restriction of undesirable influences on energy security from these
identified factors.
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1. Introduction policy makers involved in the implementation of CPEC have considered

In recent years of technological growth and advancement, mankind
has faced new challenges concerning the planet's ability to sustain and
the need to develop methods that can assist human race in harness-
ing earth's resources. Energy independence is one of those desires that
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Pakistan's power sector as a potential barrier and have indicated that
they are ready to concentrate on the development of Pakistan's energy
sector to overcome possible hurdles in the implementation of CPEC. A
mixture of conventional and alternate energy projects have been initi-
ated under the CPEC project to fuel the economic wheel of the country

are becoming central to the freedom of a nation in the 21st century.
The need to produce or import enough energy to fulfil the requirements
of the people while planning for the future generations. Unfortunately,
Pakistan failed to sustain its energy production and supply which re-
sulted in a devastating energy crisis. The current decade long energy
crisis faced by Pakistan stems from policies that were formulated dur-
ing the early 1990s (Aftab, 2014). These policies focused on resource
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and to unlock Pakistan's alternate energy potential (Javed et al., 2016;
Sher et al., 2015). Out of the total 46 billion USD Chinese investment
through CPEC, about 35 billion USD is focused on the energy sector and
for its resurrection (Markey and West, 2016). Such a heavy investment
can a source of opportunity for Pakistan but can also represent sever
challenges in future (Mustafa and Zafar, 2017).
A number of questions have been raised by international strategists

destructive imported fossil fuel techniques were doomed to fail as the
energy demand increases (Ahmed et al., 2018). Also, the consequences
of this power crisis on the economic situation of the country cannot be
undermined at all especially considering the need for political and so-
cio-economic development of the region (Iqbal et al., 2017; Yao et al.,
2018).
All this points towards a single agenda, Pakistan's desire to find
a solution that can drive the country towards energy security once
again. According to various sections of the country, China Pakistan Eco-
nomic Corridor (CPEC) is that solution that Pakistan has been look-
ing for over a decade. Strategists and
and researchers in regards to the success of this China Pakistan col-
laboration and cross border energy cooperation in general (Singh et
al., 2018). However, little attention has been given to the fact that
solving Pakistan's energy issue might unlock the actual potential of
this young and populous country (Khan et al., 2018). Therefore, it is
vital to investigate the concerns that have been highlighted by the
researchers in recent studies and that whether these aspects have a
negative relation with Pakistan's energy security or not. Hence, this
study detects the underlying factors that have been identified by the
recent research literature on the subject matter as potential barriers
to the successful implementation of CPEC related energy projects and
once these factors are brought to

⁎ Corresponding author.
S.u. Ahmed et al.
light, then there link with each other and Pakistan's energy security is
also explored.
The structure of the remaining article is as follows: Section 2 pre-
sents the methods selected for this study, Section 3 provides the results
and findings and then Section 4 expands these findings with the help of
a detailed discussion and analysis. Lastly, Section 5 sheds light on policy
implications and delivers final conclusive remarks.
2. Methodology
2.1. Research design and data collection
The research design selected for this study is a meta-analytic review
design. This method assists the researcher in the documentation of fun-
damental concerns related to the studied topic that have been proposed
by the reviewed studies (Schmidt and Hunter, 2014). Moreover, there
are a number of published studies that have used meta-analysis tech-
nique successfully for research in the field of energy (Labandeira et al.,
2017; Oladosu et al., 2018; Cochran et al., 2014). Also, statistical out-
come can be achieved through such an approach which can guide policy
makers and strategists in an evident manner. For the purpose of data
collection, a total of 18 research studies have been selected based on
the inclusion and exclusion criteria from diverse backgrounds based on
their relevance to the topic to enhance the validity of the research out-
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comes. The research articles have been extracted from Google Scholar
database by using keywords like ‘CPEC’, ‘Pakistan’, ‘Energy Security’
and ‘Energy Independence’. These keywords have been used in different
combinations to find different articles.
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2.2. Inclusion and exclusion criteria
The studies are included in the meta-analysis have all passed the be-
low points:
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• Research work must have published between 2014 and 2018 so that
the analyzed data is up-to-date.
• The research work directly address the subject matter and relevance
to the study topic is easily identifiable.
• Research work provides clear conclusion in regards to the hypothesis
or questions explored in that research.
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• Research work offers some conclusion in regards to Pakistan's energy
security in the light of CPEC.
2.3. Data analysis
The collected data from the reviewed studies is analyzed quantita-
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tively. Initially, simple quantitative methods are used for presentation
of the extracted potential barriers and concerns. Once the findings are
presented, Spearman Correlation is used to unearth any possible corre-
lations between the identified problems. Selection of Spearman Corre-
lation test is based on the evidence presented by Norman in (Norman,
2010) which clearly states that for ordinal or categorized data non-para-
metric methods must be used. Same has been suggested in (Kuzon et al.,
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1996), the authors have highlighted seven common mistakes which can
be avoided to enhance the validity and accuracy of statistical analysis
with the need to avoid use of parametric methods for analysis of ordinal
and categorized data being one of them. Therefore, Spearman correla-
tion is selected for statistical analysis due to its non-parametric property
and the ability to handle ordinal or categorized data therefore, enhanc-
ing the validity of the findings. The level of emphasis in the reviewed
study on a certain factor is categorized from 1 to 3 representing none,
mild and major for statistical analysis purpose only. Correlation is ex-
plored between the identified factors and energy security so that a sta-
tistically correct conclusion can be presented. IBM SPSS 22.0 is utilized
for the calculation of Spearman Correlation.
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Energy Policy xxx (2018) xxx-xxx
3. Results
A total of 18 research studies have been selected for review purposes
and these studies have been explored in an absolute manner. Each re-
search article has been scrutinized carefully so that all the necessary
data can be extracted from these studies. Table 1 presents a concise sum-
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mary of the main points discussed in the said reviewed article along
with article details.
The above presented summary of the reviewed article only repre-
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sents the main focus of the research article and the points that the re-
searchers have elaborated in relation to CPEC and its impact on the en-
ergy security and independence of Pakistan. This extracted data is fur-
ther broken down and evaluated collectively. Such an assessment of the
collected data resulted into the identification of five main themes which
can be suggested as the fundamental concerns associated with the suc-
cessful implementation of energy projects under CPEC and its positive
or negative influence on Pakistan's energy security. Table 2 sheds light
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on the concerns raised by each research article and their support or ab-
sence of support to energy projects under CPEC as a possible opportu-
nity to enhance Pakistan's energy security.
In Table 2, the identified five issues have been presented which are
economic burden, security threat, completion delay, project feasibility
concerns and provincial conflict as they can have negative effect on en-
ergy security of the country in near future. Economic burden refers to
the notion that CPEC has hampered economic growth of Pakistan due
to excessive loans from China and this aspect has been supported by 4
out of 18 studies (22.22%). Security threat is the second worry and it
represents the internal security problems that Pakistan is facing and this
factor has been suggested by 7 out of 18 studies (38.89%). Third facet
is project completion delays in terms of missing the said timelines with
some early harvest projects that were supposed to be inaugurated dur-
ing early 2018 being delayed. This aspect has been raised by 4 out of
Table 1
Reviewed article details and summary.
Article details Article summary
(Dadwal and Energy Projects under CPEC have overburdened the economy
Purushothaman, and are also delayed.
2017)
(Vats, 2016) Energy Projects under CPEC are mostly delayed,
economically nonviable and are center of provincial conflict.
(Kugelman, 2018) Pakistan can achieve Energy Independence through these
projects.
(Ali, 2016) It can stabilize Pakistan's energy situation but internal
political conflict needs to be resolved.
(Abid and Ashfaq, Important project for Pakistan but security issues must be
2015) diminished to get the best result.
(Ramay, 2016) Projects will improve Pakistan's energy capacity but internal
political conflicts are still present.
(Ali et al., 2018) Better selection of routes and targeted policy making can
enhance Pakistan's ability further.
(Kazmi et al., Renewable Energy Production in Pakistan can be enhanced
2016) due to CPEC's influence.
(Malik, 2016) CPEC energy projects are vital for Pakistan's future but
security issues must be handled as well.
(Iqbal, 2017) CPEC is vital in terms of regional security and economic
prosperity.
(Reynolds et al., Energy Projects under CPEC are efficient, cost effective and
2018) environment friendly.
(Shoukat et al., Energy infrastructure development can bring economic
2017) prosperity and stability in Pakistan through CPEC.
(Esteban, 2016) Potential of CPEC is clear but internal political conflicts in
Pakistan are apparent.
(Raza, 2018) Pakistan can achieve energy and economic stability through
proper implementation of CPEC.
(Miller, 2017) CPEC represents major investment and improvement in
energy sector but economic independence is ignored.
(Akhtar et al., Pakistan can achieve energy sustainability through CPEC
2017) projects along with economic gains.
(Arif, 2018) Pakistan's energy security can be achieved but there are
various underlying issues as well.
(Khan, 2017) CPEC projects have great potentials for Pakistan but there
are some challenges too.
S.u. Ahmed et al. Energy Policy xxx (2018) xxx-xxx

Table 2
Potential concerns in terms of implementation of CPEC energy projects and energy security.

Article details Economic burden Security threat Completion delay Project feasibility Provincial conflict Energy security

(Dadwal and Purushothaman, 2017) ✓ ✓ ✓

(Vats, 2016) ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
(Kugelman, 2018)

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✓
(Ali, 2016) ✓ ✓ ✓
(Abid and Ashfaq, 2015) ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
(Ramay, 2016) ✓ ✓

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(Ali et al., 2018) ✓ ✓ ✓
(Kazmi et al., 2016) ✓
(Malik, 2016) ✓ ✓
(Iqbal, 2017) ✓ ✓
(Reynolds et al., 2018) ✓
(Shoukat et al., 2017) ✓ ✓ ✓
(Esteban, 2016) ✓ ✓ ✓
(Raza, 2018) ✓

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(Miller, 2017) ✓ ✓
(Akhtar et al., 2017) ✓
(Arif, 2018) ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
(Khan, 2017) ✓ ✓ ✓

18 studies which means that over 22% of the studies have brought at- support to improvement in Pakistan's energy security through CPEC pro-
tention to this issue. jects then a very important outcome has been documented. Out of 18 re-
Next is the lack project feasibility studies which is also brought search studies, 16 of them that is almost 89% have concluded that CPEC

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to light by 4 out of 18 studies (22.22%). Lastly, provincial conflict
has been raised by a considerable number of studies as a potential
concern that is 9 out of 18 research articles (50%) have indicated
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this aspect as a source of worry. However, when the conclusion of
these research studies are evaluated in terms of their
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energy projects can enhance Pakistan's energy security if the said issues
are resolved. This must be considered as a very appreciable conclusion
given the high number of problems suggested in these articles. These
outcomes are presented below in Fig. 1 in graphical format as well.
Apart from simple description of the factors unearthed during the
evaluation of the selected work, further assessment has been conducted
to gather more in-depth results. The data has been examined with addi-
tional intention and these five factors are assigned a degree of severity
based on the manner in which the researcher has discussed the recog-

nized aspect. The level of severity is from 1 to 3 representing none, mild

and major. This data is then utilized for the calculation of Spearman
Correlation so that any hidden associations can be celebrated. The find-
ings of the Spearman Correlation test are presented in Table 3 which is
as follows.
In terms of energy security, Spearman's rho correlation coefficient
value of −0.759 is the strongest negative correlation that has been
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found in this research. This negative correlation between energy se-

curity and economic burden of CPEC projects and investment can be
considered a very strong association and is also statistically signif-
Fig. 1. Research support to energy security through CPEC and related concerns.
icant with a P-value of 0.000. In addition to this,

Table 3
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Outcome of spearman correlation test.

Correlations

Energy Economic Security Completion Project Provincial

security burden threat delays feasibility conflict

Spearman's Energy Security Correlation 1.000 − 0.759a⁠ 0.137 − 0.500b⁠ − .425 0.198
rho Coefficient
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Sig. (2-tailed) . 0.000 0.588 0.035 0.079 0.431

N 18 18 18 18 18 18
Economic Burden Correlation − 0.759a⁠ 1.000 − 0.240 0.462 0.391 − 0.109
Coefficient
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 . 0.337 0.054 0.109 0.666
N 18 18 18 18 18 18
Security Threat Correlation 0.137 − 0.240 1.000 − 0.137 − 0.104 0.326
Coefficient
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.588 0.337 . 0.588 0.683 0.187
N 18 18 18 18 18 18
Completion Correlation − 0.500b⁠ 0.462 − 0.137 1.000 0.709a⁠ 0.166
Delays Coefficient
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.035 0.054 0.588 . 0.001 0.509
N 18 18 18 18 18 18
Project Correlation − 0.425 0.391 − 0.104 0.709a⁠ 1.000 0.214
Feasibility Coefficient
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.079 0.109 0.683 0.001 . 0.395
N 18 18 18 18 18 18
Provincial Correlation 0.198 − 0.109 0.326 0.166 0.214 1.000
Conflict Coefficient
S.u. Ahmed et al.
another strong negative correlation exist between energy security and
project completion delays with Spearman's rho correlation coefficient
of −0.500 having a P-value of 0.035. The statistical significance of the
negative correlation between energy security and project completion de-
lays is also established but only at a significance level of 95% as the
rho-value is over 0.01 which could have established a significance level
of 99% however, it is still evident that significance has been achieved.
Another negative correlation has been established during the Spear-
man correlation test which exists between lack of project feasibility and
energy security with a rho-value of −0.425 however, statistical signif-
icance could not be proven as the P-value is 0.079 which is over 0.05
significance level. But interestingly, one gripping correlation is found
between the five identified concerns. Project feasibility and project com-
pletion delays has a strong positive correlation according to the Spear-
man Correlation test results with a rho-value of 0.709 and a P-value of
0.001 which means that the result is statistically significant with a sig-
nificance level of over 99%. These findings are of fascinating nature and
their relation is now discussed in the light of Pakistani context and in
terms of country's need for energy growth.
4. Analysis and discussion
4.1. Acknowledgment of energy independence
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A high number of evaluated studies that is around 89% have clearly
concluded that CPEC presents a great opportunity to the energy sector
of the country to stabilize itself and the influx of foreign investment is
only going to enhance energy security of Pakistan. This clearly justi-
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fies the optimism that the policy makers and economic strategists of the
country have reflected as energy security can prove to be a strong pre-
dictor of economic growth in near future. Although, most of the studies
included in this research (72%) have shed light on at least one concern
however, 77.78% indicated CPEC projects as a major player in terms
of energy security while another 11% specified them as a small break-
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through towards energy security with more work to be done. Either
way, it can be pointed out with ample evidence that Pakistan will take
huge steps towards energy independence if CPEC's successful implemen-
tation is achieved in a timely manner.
These findings have found support in current literature as well with a
variety of research studies discussing the importance of CPEC initiative
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for both Pakistan and China's economy and energy demands (Ahmar,
2015; Aslam et al., 2016; Ramachandran, 2015). One attention-grab-
bing facet highlighted by Jabin Jacob, Assistant Director of the Insti-
tute of Chinese Studies in Delhi is vital in relation to understanding the
importance of CPEC to China itself. He stated that “Chinese companies
that are going to be involved in the process of setting up energy plants
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and other physical infrastructure [in Pakistan as part of CPEC] need to
make money and cannot do so back home due to China's saturated mar-
kets” (Ramachandran, 2015). This concisely advocates that China needs
Pakistani market while Pakistan needs investment into its energy sector
which corresponds to almost 70% of the total investment under CPEC.
In addition to this, researchers have also shed light on encouraging im-
plications of direct foreign investment in the energy sector of the coun-
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try through regional cooperation and by creating a health investment
environment (Hussain, 2013). Hence, CPEC must also be considered in
this regard as it can boost Pakistan's global image and can attract in-
vestors on the basis of the platform already in place to streamline for-
eign investment and its utilization in the energy sector (Wang, 2017).
4.2. Recognition of the identified aspects and underlying associations
The main concerns that have been identified in this meta-analysis
are economic burden, security threat, completion delay, project feasibil-
ity concerns and provincial conflict. Fig. 2 presents the association be-
tween these apprehensions and energy security of Pakistan.
These major aspects have been stressed by the research work in-
cluded in this investigation and does hold solid ground in regards
to the practical imple
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Energy Policy xxx (2018) xxx-xxx
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Fig. 2. Linkage between various factors and energy security.
mentation of CPEC energy projects. On various instances, these issues
have been raised by political and public figures of Pakistan and a num-
ber of solutions have been devised by scholars and policy makers to re-
solve these conflicts and concerns. Provincial conflict and security threat
are the two factors that have been raised by the international commu-
nity as well as the researches discussed in this paper. Disparity in clarity
of project details and inappropriate implementation plan has been sug-
gested by some as a cause of divided among the internal political actors
of Pakistan however, even these studies have acknowledged the pros-
perous influence of CPEC on Pakistan's energy and economy that can be
achieved hopefully (Singh and Magray, 2017; Mumtaz et al., 2016).
Also, the security threat which is most apparent in the Balochistan
province of the country is being handled with care by Pakistan's politi-
cal establishment and while this is a major problem, Gwadar Port repre-
sents the best solution. Balochistan province, where Gwadar Port is lo-
cated, is a highly affected region of Pakistan and is central to the success
of this initiative as well as of the country. This facet is of high impor-
tance to the security agencies and think tanks of Pakistan and has been
one of the reasons that have blocked foreign investor's trust in Pakistan
for many years. Gwadar Port is the focal point of the CPEC initiative
and has presented ample opportunities for the growth of Pakistan's least
developed region (Mumtaz et al., 2016; Ahmad, 2017). Based on this
assessment, it can be pointed out that although challenges persist along
the boundaries of this tremendous initiative but, CPEC has the ability
required to answer all the raised questions and to overcome all the bar-
riers that have been identified here in this paper (Ali et al., 2016; Rizvi,
2015). On the other hand, successful implementation is key to Pakistan's
energy security and that it can only be achieved if these issues are han-
dled appropriately.
Uncompromising evidence has been attained regarding the aspects
of security threat and provincial conflict in terms of the number of stud-
ies emphasizing on these factors. But close consideration of the collected
data led to a much sophisticated and substantial proof based on the out-
come of Spearman correlation. Hence, some other factors that are found
to be correlated with energy security are also discussed individually for
exposure.
4.3. Economic burden and energy security
Based on Spearman's rho correlation coefficient value of −0.759, a
very strong negative correlation has been found in this research be-
tween the said aspects. This negative correlation between energy se-
curity and economic burden of CPEC projects and investment can be
considered a very strong association and is also statistically significant
with a P-value of less than 0.001. Hence, this indicates that when eco-
nomic burden is a concern, energy security of the country decreases and
also when energy security increases then economic burden decreases
to some extent. Realization of this factor can be vital in terms of cop
S.u. Ahmed et al.
ing strategies and policy making to reduce economy related problems
and to create energy independence.
One such strategy or area of focus can be the enhancement of re-
source utilization and land productivity to create more job prospects
and business opportunities for small and medium sized enterprises
(Hyder and Arsalan, 2016; Alam et al., 2018). But, it has also been pro-
posed that it is the threat of terrorism that is creating economic pressure
on the country and that energy crisis might just be a secondary player in
this regard (Khan, 2017). Apart from this, agricultural industrialization
and extension of industrial chain are also proposed to ease up economic
burden to ensure energy security in near future (Hyder and Arsalan,
2016). This must be clarified here that correlation does not mean causa-
tion and hence there can be more than one factors combining to cause
some aspect or process. Hence, security threat and economic burden
might be forming a certain combination to have a negative effect on en-
ergy security as per the above presented research study but in this in-
vestigation, negative correlation can only be established between eco-
nomic burden and energy security. Therefore, it can be suggested eco-
nomic prosperity and energy security go hand in hand on most occa-
sions (Shahbaz et al., 2017).
Pakistan's economy has been a focus of attention of international
community for a time now and considering the introduction of CPEC it
has become a center of scrutiny for many. As suggested above, economy
and energy go hand in hand and Pakistan's GDP growth along with per
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capita income are showing encouraging signs during the last couple of
years. This improvement has been directly associated with energy pro-
duction and betterment of the law and order situation of the country.
This has also been widely hypothesized that economy and energy needs
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are heavily interlinked while security situation is also closely interre-
lated to these facets to a great extent (Atems and Hotaling, 2018).
Due to high level of Chinese investment in the form of loans un-
der the flagship CPEC venture, Pakistan's economists and related strate-
gists have widely called for increased government investment and local
private industry integration into the new economic fold of the country
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which has been debated above as well. Here, it is an essential reminder
that it was the 1994 Power Policy that first introduced the concept of
enhancement in private investment in the power sector through formu-
lation of Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB) (Pakistan, 1994).
Also, this policy framework presented in 1994 has continued until now
and was recently restated in the current National Power Policy of 2013
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(Pakistan, 1994; o. Government, Pakistan, 2013). However, no consid-
erations have been made in any recent power policy regarding the im-
plications of loan investments and existing circular debt in Pakistan's
power sector. Therefore, policies that ensure economic sovereignty as
well as enhances energy security are vital in the current context of Pak-
istan's energy sector.
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4.4. Completion delay and energy security
Another strong negative correlation exist between energy security
and project completion delays with Spearman's rho correlation coeffi-
cient of −0.500 having a P-value of 0.035. The statistical significance
of the negative correlation between energy security and project comple-
tion delays is also established at a significance level of 95%. This con-
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cern has been raised by a comparatively small number of research stud-
ies included in this investigation however, a strong correlation has been
proven. Assessment of other research investigations leads to a similar
route as found in this examination. Completion delay and security haz-
ard are combined as a possible threat to Pakistan's progress under CPEC
and the potential that the project possess in terms of energy and infra-
structure growth (Yaseen et al., 2016). Instituting the discussion on the
basis of these results and other research literature, it can be professed
that project completion delays are one of the most realistic problems
that the Pakistani and Chinese administration faces to achieve its true
potential (Khan, 2014; Bhattacharjee, 2015). It has been claimed that a
major initiative of such caliber and multi directional and multi sector-
ial reach will have some project management problems that can arise
from time to time. However, energy projects and especially the early
harvest energy projects are vital as they can inflict early growth patterns
through supporting rapid economic growth, energy stability in urban
Energy Policy xxx (2018) xxx-xxx
tions in resolving energy crisis in near future. Delays in such projects
can waver the public support in Pakistan which has been overwhelm-
ing and can also slow down the economic process leading to deferred
payback routines for the Chinese investors leading to fractures and cav-
ities in future operations and collaborations. It has been proposed with
evidence that project completion delays can certainly turn the CPEC ini-
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tiative from a successful one from energy point of view to a hampering
one if not handled with care and priority (Bhattacharjee, 2015) and this
relationship is also provided in Fig. 3.
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When discussing project completion delays, it is essential that pro-
ject feasibility aspect must also be elaborated as it is found to be corre-
lated positively with this aspect. This must be considered as a daunting
factor as project feasibility and lack of clarity regarding project details
has been one of the factors that have been raised by scholars and strate-
gists a like. It is clear now that CEPC is a complex initiative and that
there is a combination of aspects involved in the success and failure of
the associated projects and investments. But, this study has presented
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clear evidence in regards to a handful of factors that can be targeted
with intention and focus by the policy makers to ensure that the actual
objective of these energy projects is not missed.
4.5. Project feasibility and energy security
Conspiring project feasibility and energy security together is essen-
tial at this instant as some correlation has been established between
the two. Negative correlation has been proven through the Spearman
correlation test between lack of project feasibility and energy security
with a rho-value of −0.425 however, statistical significance could not be
proven. But excitingly, one absorbing correlation is found between pro-
ject feasibility and project completion delays with a rho-value of 0.709
showing a strong positive correlation and a P-value of 0.001 demon-
strating statistical significance. Hence, direct correlation might not be
present but the combination of project feasibility issues and completion
delays can effect energy security negatively.
Here, it must be brought to light that a number of provincial gov-
ernment concerns stem out of the lack of project details being pro-
vided to them or the deficiency of their involvement in project feasibil-
ity studies. These distresses then become a part of the political blame
game when the projects get delayed or are shelved as the fingers are
pointed towards the federal committees approving these projects. Inter-
estingly, this has been identified and is already stated as the 9th goal in
the 2013 National Power Policy of Pakistan. The policy emphasizes on
the alignment of federal and provincial energy sector institutions to en-
sure smooth governance, management and regulation (o. Government,
Pakistan, 2013). But, failure in development of an implementable action
plan has hampered any forward movement. Consideration of this aspect
and a clear execution plan can be vital in terms of eradication of any
political rift within the government bodies as it has been found as an
essential component of this multifaceted association between energy se-
curity and the identified factors. Fig. 4 presents the explanation of the
indirect complex relationship that exists between project feasibility and
energy security.
Project feasibility and assessments before the initiation or approval
of the project must be deemed necessary and this practicability is vi-
tal in many ways. Financial practicality and legality or ownership of
the economic zones and energy projects that are being setup under
the flagship initiative of CPEC has been the biggest concern (Qureshi,
2015). Mutually beneficial projects must be followed up with spir-
ited and enthusiastic work ethic but viability must be de
Fig. 3. Relationship between energy security and project completion delays.
S.u. Ahmed et al.
Fig. 4. Graphical explanation of project feasibility's association with energy security.
termined beforehand to avoid any rifts in future among the stakeholders
(Khan, 2013). This is because of the high level of interdependence that
will exist between the two nations after the completion of CPEC projects
and that cooperative interdependence will be key to the long term en-
ergy security and growth of both nations (Afridi and Khalid, 2016).
5. Conclusion and policy implications
Pakistan's energy crisis has been one of the daunting aspects that
have damaged economic growth and prosperity. CPEC has shown great
potential in terms of solving the ongoing crisis and to steer the energy
D
sector towards much needed stability and eventually leading Pakistan
towards energy security. In this respect, an investigation of concerns
that have been raised by esteemed scholars was established as essen-
tial. This meta-analysis has revealed that strong evidence supporting
TE
achievement of Pakistan's energy security dream (89%) is found. The
main worrying factors identified during this research are economic bur-
den, security threat, project completion delays, lack of project feasibility
studies and provincial conflicts.
The aspect of economic burden is of great importance as it has been
discussed earlier that the financial situation of the country and GDP
EC
growth along with per capita income are directly associated with en-
ergy security and the law and order situation of the country. This has
also been widely hypothesized that economy, energy needs and security
situation are closely interrelated to a great extent. Due to excessive Chi-
nese loans under the flagship CPEC venture Pakistan's economists and
related strategists have widely called for increased government invest-
RR
ment and local private industry integration into the new economic fold
of the country. Therefore, such policies are vital that ensure economic
sovereignty as well as enhances energy security and this has also been
supported by 4 out of 18 studies (22.22%) in this research study. As
discussed in the previous section, Pakistan's power policy of 1994 and
2013 both emphasize on enhancement of foreign investment. However,
the policy makers have completely neglected the aspect of loan invest-
CO
ments, existing circular debt and other such issues that might arise out
of heavy foreign investments.
Security threat and terrorist attacks on project sites is already one of
the most worrying aspect of the CPEC initiative. Balochistan province,
where Gwadar Port is located, is a highly affected region of Pakistan and
is central to the success of this plan. This facet is of high importance to
the security agencies of Pakistan and has blocked foreign investor's trust
UN
in Pakistan for many years. In addition to this, this significance is sim-
ilarly apparent in this investigation and this factors has been suggested
by 7 out of 18 studies (38.89%). Project completion delays have been
pointed out by many and although it can be suggested that in such a
major initiative some project management problems can arise however,
energy projects and especially the early harvest energy projects are vital
to resolving energy crisis in near future. Delays in such projects is what
will define the success or failure of CPEC and can waver the public sup-
port in Pakistan which has been overwhelming. Hence, this factor must
not be undermined as it is also negatively correlated with energy secu-
rity and has been highlighted by 4 out of 18 (22.22%).
Moreover, lack of project feasibility studies is another facet of the
CPEC related energy project issues. Lack of detail sharing has been
one of the reason of provincial conflict which is essentially the next
point that is being discussed
Energy Policy xxx (2018) xxx-xxx
in this section. Unfortunately, provincial coherence and alignment of
federal and provincial energy institutions has been stated as a goal in
the 2013 National Power Policy as well. Yet, it has been found that the
problem still persist and is far from any resolution. It is also understand-
able that all these factors are highly correlated with energy security as
well as with each other as has been discussed in the above paper. This
F
will present a conundrum to the policy makers to resolve but can also
be advocated as an opportunity. Focusing on one aspect will not re-
solve these issues but a collective policy focused on the integration of all
OO
provinces and regional bodies can assist greatly in the identification and
formulation of a setup that is agreeable to both provincial and federal
authorities. Project feasibility related concerns are also brought to light
by 4 out of 18 studies (22.22%) and on the other hand, provincial con-
flict and need for integrative policy framework has been indicated by 9
out of 18 research articles (50%).
In addition to this, Spearman correlation was utilized to understand
the significance and direction of the correlation that exists between
PR
some of these aspects and energy security. Very strong negative correla-
tion between energy security and economic burden of CPEC projects and
investment with Spearman's rho correlation coefficient value of −0.759
and statistical significance of 0.000. Moreover, strong negative correla-
tion exist between energy security and project completion delays with
Spearman's rho correlation coefficient of −0.500 having a P-value of
0.035. Also, correlation between lack of project feasibility and energy
security with a rho-value of −0.425 is found but, statistical significance
could not be proven as the P-value is 0.079. However, project feasibil-
ity and project completion delays has a very strong positive correlation
according to the Spearman Correlation test results with a rho-value of
0.709 and a P-value of 0.001 which means that the result is vital in con-
tributing negatively towards energy security as project completion de-
lays is proven in this study as a negatively associated factor.
All in all, these findings provide ample ammunition to conclude that
there are a variety of causes for worry for policy makers. Nonetheless,
if the presented evident conclusion is utilized appropriately, the pol-
icy makers and strategists can devise a comprehensive limitation frame-
work for the restriction of the undesirable influence of the recognized
aspects on energy security. This limitation framework can also be based
on a combination of the aspects identified in this study and those pro-
vided in existing power policies as discussed in this article. However,
it must address all the factors highlighted in this article in an effective
manner. These policy implications must be concentrated on cooperation
between provincial and federal government, inclusion of security agen-
cies in the limitation framework and enhancement of credibility and
clarity regarding project details and their viability. Even so, CPEC repre-
sents a golden opportunity for Pakistan to end this decade long energy
crisis and optimization of current policies in accordance with this con-
clusion can consequentially enhance Pakistan's ability to reach its po-
tential.
Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to Almighty God for this opportunity to
research and express their gratitude towards the global scholar com-
munity for creating such platforms to share knowledge and to spread
awareness.
Funding
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agen-
cies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Appendix A. Supporting information
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in the
online version at doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.003
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