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Article history: Hydropower is the backbone of the Brazilian electricity generation sector. Even though the use of this
Received 2 June 2015 resource is advantaged in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, last years' severe droughts have exposed
Received in revised form the country's huge dependency on hydroelectricity. Brazil's electricity supply system has shown to be
21 December 2015
vulnerable to electricity shortages and has demanded significant overhaul in order to address its chal-
Accepted 3 January 2016
Available online 21 January 2016
lenges. The present paper provides a comprehensive review of the current status of the Brazilian elec-
tricity sector and discusses diversification of electricity generation mix as a strategy to improve electricity
Keywords: supply security in the country. An overview of the main features of the energy sources applied in Brazil is
Brazil also presented through a review of the latest available generation data. The central section of this work is
Electricity supply security a discussion of the main causes of the current crisis and the future role of renewable energy sources in a
Renewable energy
10-year perspective.
& 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Contents
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
2. Structure of the electricity sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
2.1. Electricity regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330
2.2. Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
2.3. Wind energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
2.4. Solar energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
2.5. Biomass energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332
2.6. Nuclear energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333
2.7. Fossil fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334
3. Scenario in 2014–2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334
4. Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
4.1. Security supply and main reasons for the crisis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
4.2. Future role of renewable energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336
4.2.1. Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
Abbreviations: ANEEL, Brazilian Agency for Electric Energy (Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica); BRICS, Acronym for an association of five major emerging national
economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa; CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage; CCEE, Chamber of Electricity Energy Commercialization (Câmara de Comercia-
lização de Energia Elétrica); CNPE, National Energy Policy Council (Conselho Nacional de Política energética); CRESESB, Reference Centre for Solar and Wind Energy Sérgio de
Salvo Brito (Centro de Referência para Energia Solar e Eólica Sérgio Brito); EIA, Energy Information Administration; EPE, Company for Energy Research (Empresa de Pesquisa
Energética); GDP, Gross Domestic Product; IBGE, Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística); INCT, National Institutes for
Science and Technology (Institutos Nacionais de Ciência e Tecnologia); INMETRO, National Institute of Metrology Standardization and Industrial Quality (Instituto Nacional
de Metrologia, Qualidade e Tecnologia); LCOE, Levelized Cost of Electricity; MME, Ministry of Mines and Energy (Ministério de Minas e Energia); OECD, Organization for
Economic Co-operation and Development; ONS, Brazilian Operator for Elecricity System (Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico); PDE, Brazilian Energy Expansion Plan; PLD,
Settlement Price Differences (Preço da Liquidação das Diferenças); PROINFA, Program of Incentives for Alternative Electricity Sources (Programa de Incentivo às Fontes
Alternativas de Energia Elétrica); SIN, National Interconnected System (Sistema Interligado Nacional); UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change;
VCG, Variable costs of generation
n
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: rodrigosilva@utfpr.edu.br (R. Corrêa da Silva).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.01.001
1364-0321/& 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
R. Corrêa da Silva et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 59 (2016) 328–341 329
Brazil has a population of 204.03 million and covers an area of Brazil has been increasing its installed generating capacity and
8.51 million km² [1]. The country has a per capita income of nearly had 126.74 GW in 2013 as shown in Fig. 1. Overall, 53.07 GW has
US$ 11,208 a year and a total production of about US$ 2245.67 been installed since 2000, which represent an increase by 72%. In
billion in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [2]. In 2014, 2013, hydroelectric power plants accounted for 67.87% of the
Brazilian industry accounted for 26.4% of the domestic production, installed capacity, with increasing amounts coming from ther-
while agriculture accounted for an additional 5.5% and the service moelectric power plants (28.82%) and other forms of renewable
sector for 68.1% [3]. Most of the population is concentrated in energy such as wind and solar energy (1.74%). Nuclear sources
urban areas, particularly in large cities. The country's urbanization corresponded to 1.57% of the installed capacity [7].
rate is 84.36% but it can be as high as 96% in some regions, e.g., in Fig. 2 displays the installed electricity generation capacity by
state of São Paulo [4,5]. The country ranks 9th in the world in
region. Most of this electricity is generated in the Southeastern
terms of energy consumption and the 4th largest among the BRICS
region (33.30%), followed by the Southern (23.36%), Northeastern
[6].
(17.47%), Northern (13.31%), and Midwestern region (12.56%). Total
Total primary energy consumption in Brazil has increased 57%
electricity generated in 2013 was 570,025 GW h [7]. Public service
from 2000 to 2013 [7]. Largest share of total energy consumption
power plants accounted for 483,863 GW h, while independent
comes from oil and other liquid fuels (44%), followed by hydro-
electricity (35%), and natural gas (8%) [8]. Brazil holds leadership producers accounted for 86,162 GW h. Net imports of 39,867 GW h
position with regard to the use of renewable energy resources. On allowed a domestic electricity supply of 609,892 GW h. Final end-
the whole, around 42% of the primary energy mix comes from use consumption was 516,330 GW h, an increase by 3.6% com-
renewable resources, which contrasts significantly with the global pared with 2012. Industrial sector accounted for 210,083 GW h,
average of 13% and with the 8.1% average for OECD countries [7]. while the residential and commercial sectors accounted for
Brazil has one of the largest hydroelectric potential in the world 124,896 GW h and 84,338 GW h, respectively. The remaining
and this corresponds to more than two-thirds of the total installed consumption was divided among the public sector (41,288 GW h),
capacity in the country. The use of water resources brings many the energy sector (29,663 GW h), agriculture and livestock
advantages, but its prevalence makes it electrically dependent on (24,129 GW h), and transportation (1884 GW h).
hydrological conditions. Intensive drought in the last years has Almost 117,000 km of transmission line extensions inter-
damaged the main source of electricity generation and left reser- connect the country through a National Interconnected System
voirs dangerously low. Brazil has barely escaped forced electricity (SIN), reaching approximately 98.3% of coverage [9]. Few isolated
supply shortages in 2015 and the diversification in electricity systems (1.7%) that are not covered by the interconnected system
generation mix in order to increase the electricity supply security are located in the Northern part of the country, especially in the
has become an issue. In addition, many problems need to be Amazon region. Part of the transmission system is connected with
addressed, such as: how to further expand hydropower genera-
the systems of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay. These inter-
tion, how to boost development of other renewable sources and
connections are used in case of excess of energy generation in one
optimize intermittent power generation, and the role of oil, nat-
country and a lack of energy supply in another, or to attend to
ural gas, and coal in a period when many countries seek to reduce
emergency cases.
the use of fossil fuels.
The objective of this work is to provide a diagnostic review on
the positional gap of electricity generation and the main causes for
the current crisis. Emphasis is also placed on a discussion of main
features of electricity generation sources and the expected role of
renewable and non-renewable energy as alternative sources for
the increase of electricity supply security in the near-future.
The methodology applied in this paper includes an in-depth
review of official reports and documents provided by the Brazilian
regulatory authorities. After a review on the structure of the Bra-
zilian electricity sector in Section 2, technical data on the supply of
electricity are presented in Section 3 in order to provide an over-
view of the current status of electricity generation in Brazil. Sec-
tion 4 includes a discussion of the main reasons for the current
crisis in the electricity sector. In addition, based on data available
in the Energy Expansion Plan for 2023, the future perspective of
the main generation sources of electricity and the impact in terms
of security of supply are discussed. The main conclusions of this
work are summarized in Section 5. Fig. 1. Share of energy sources in the electricity generation sector. Data from [7].
330 R. Corrêa da Silva et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 59 (2016) 328–341
Fig. 4. Contour maps of average wind velocity during the (a) summer, (b) fall, (c) winter, and (d) spring. Adapted from [22].
participation of solar energy in the Brazilian electricity generation source and Brazil has a tradition and significant potential on bio-
mix [28]. During a reserve energy auction in 2014, the average sale mass production for electricity generation. In addition, combustion
price was US$70.30/MW h. However, there was an increase in the technologies to convert biomass into electricity are fully commer-
average price during the solar energy auctions to US$97.66/MW h cialized with proven operational performance. Recent data [15]
(as indicated in Table 1) due to the last auction reserve in 2015, in show the existence of 509 biomass-fired power plants, corre-
which the price was approximately US$98.60/MW h. sponding to an installed capacity of 12.37 GW and a share of 9.70%.
Solar energy is used mainly to heat water at Brazil homes, Table 2 summarizes the sources of biomass applied to electricity
providing effective energy conservation and reducing the elec- generation in Brazil. Among the main sources of biomass, sugarcane
tricity consumption. Therefore, a significant portion of all elec- refuse (bagasse and straw) offers one of the greatest potential as a
tricity generated in Brazil is consumed in the form of heat. Around supplementary source of energy generated by hydroelectric power
20 billion kW h of the electricity in Brazil is used annually for plants. It is worth mentioning that Brazil's sugar industry plays a
heating water for bathing [31], which could be supplied by solar key role in the overall energy mix as a producer of ethanol, which
heaters that have several environmental and socioeconomic has been consumed by a fleet of flex-fuel vehicles in Brazil and
advantages. contributed to a reduction in CO2 emissions [32]. Overall, Brazilian
capacity for generating biomass power is the world's second largest
2.5. Biomass energy after United States and accounts for around 25% of world’s total
ethanol fuel production [18].
The vast surface of Brazil, located in tropical regions, offers An important segment of the ethanol business is electricity
appropriate conditions for the production and use of biomass generation using sugarcane refuse in cogeneration facilities in
energy on a large scale. Biomass is an environmentally friendly order to meet the need for heat and mechanical power during
R. Corrêa da Silva et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 59 (2016) 328–341 333
Fig. 5. Contour maps of daily average solar irradiation during the (a) summer, (b) fall, (c) winter, and (d) spring. Adapted from [29].
bring reliability of the electricity generation sector, many countries Coal power plants have construction time of four years and a
(e.g., Germany) do not maintain it as a future option [34]. Brazil lifespan of 20 years. Their variable cost is highly competitive compared
holds two operating thermonuclear power plants: the 640 MW to thermoelectric power plants and investment cost is US$1300/kW
Angra 1 and the 1350 MW Angra 2. A third plant (Angra 3) with a [17]. The average fixed costs for coal power plants determined in
capacity for 1405 MW is currently being installed and will enter into auctions is US$48.76/MW h, while the variable costs for their gen-
commercial operation by 2018; the construction started in 1984 and eration is US$59.92/MW h. In turn, coal represents the lowest total
for several reasons stopped for almost twenty years. price for electricity among fossil fuels, i.e., US$108.68/MW h.
The Brazilian Government has the monopoly to operate nuclear
power plants in the country, which is undertaken by concessions
to the state-owned company Eletronuclear. Expansion of nuclear 3. Scenario in 2014–2015
generation is determined by a decision taken by the National
Energy Policy Council (CNPE). Nuclear power plants demand high The remarkable predominance of hydroelectricity in Brazil is
investment costs and construction time, i.e., about 10 years under combined with the unpredictable, inherent pattern of the tropical
normal conditions. The investment cost for a 1400 MW nuclear rains that drive the flow of its rivers [37]. The operational planning
power plant is US$1700 per kW [17]. As indicated in Table 1, fixed of an electricity system is conditioned to the randomness of the
costs determined by ANEEL is US$52.91/MW h, while the variable hydrological resources, making thermoelectric power plants viable
costs of generation is US$7.08/MW h, representing a lower total only when the reservoirs are expected to be exhausted [14]. The
cost of electricity production (US$59.99/MW h) in comparison to existence of dry hydrological periods compromises the ability to
fossil fuel power plants. Brazilian government plans to build new meet the demand for electricity as in 2001 crisis when the country
nuclear power plants by 2030 [35]. submitted to rationing.
The distribution of electricity generation by source for 2011 and
2.7. Fossil fuels 2013 is depicted in Fig. 6 [7]. Both plots show clearly the strong
dependence of the Brazilian electricity sector on rain and the man-
Thermoelectric power plants fired by fossil fuels (natural gas, agement of water reservoirs. Data also show that the share of
oil derivatives, and coal) play an important role in the installed hydroelectricity in 2013 was much lower than 2011 due to the severe
electricity generation capacity (a share of about 18% in 2014) and drought that affected the country. Recent data [21] indicate that Brazil
in the make-up of the demanded electricity. They have mostly generated 392,585 GW h of hydroelectricity in 2014, approximately
complementary participation and are requested whenever water 15% less than 2011 when reservoirs of hydroelectric dams were at
reservoirs are under critical conditions [14]. The National Elec- maximum levels and 450,237 GW h of electricity were generated. It is
tricity System Operator (ONS) decides on how much and when the important to keep in mind that the share of hydroelectricity genera-
several thermoelectric power plants have to deliver electricity tion is higher than the share of installed capacity since hydroelectric
through the interconnected grid. Fossil-fueled plants are dis- power plants provide base load and, therefore, run longer periods than
patched in order of priority to ensure low electricity tariffs, low thermoelectric power plants, which provide peak load.
system production costs, and to secure short-, medium-, and long- In 2011, thermoelectric power plants produced 84,572 GW h of
term supply. Fuel-wise installed capacity is as follows [36]: electricity, or 14.9% of total electricity production. At the peak year
(2013), thermoelectricity’s contribution was 25.9%, when
- Natural gas: 12.90 GW (142 power plants). 157,964 GW h were generated. Natural gas contributed with 11.3%,
- Oil derivatives: 9.89 GW (2,143 power plants). biomass with 7.6%, oil with 4.4%, while coal contributed with only
- Coal: 3.61 GW (23 power plants). 2.6%. Share of wind energy has increased substantially in the last
years and it was responsible for generating 6576 GW h in 2013,
Thermoelectric power plants have several generation costs due around two and half times higher than in 2011.
to the technology used, which always includes the cost of fuel. In As shown in Fig. 7, hydroelectricity production has been
general, they are located close to large load centers, which lead to decreasing since 2011 as a result of one of the country's most
lower transmission costs. The choice for type of fuel and technology severe droughts in history [21]. The most affected regions were the
to be used in power plants follows economic criteria (generating Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast, where electricity generation is
cost), security criteria (access to fuel), and environmental aspects largely dependent on hydroelectric power plants. Fig. 8 shows a
(emission of greenhouse gases and other pollutants). relationship between the reservoir's capacity of hydroelectric
Natural gas power plants operating with combined cycle dams in each region and the electricity generated by thermo-
have the lowest investment cost of about US$600.00/kW [17] and electric power plants in the last five years [38]. As the reservoirs
less environmental impact when compared to diesel, fuel oil, and levels in Southeast, Midwest, and Northeast decreased due to
coal. Construction time is usually three years and power plants drought, thermoelectric power plants entered into operation to
have a lifespan of 30 years. The average cost in the auctions is meet the base load. This clearly shows the importance of ther-
US$54.92/MW h and the variables costs of operation is around moelectric power plants to ensure the reliability level of the
US$79.78/MW h, totalizing an amount of US$134.70/MW h electricity system as a whole, avoiding the risk of a supply short-
(Table 1). age from its main source of energy.
Thermoelectric power plants operating with oil derivatives Brazil started 2015 with empty reservoirs at the hydroelectric
have a relatively fast construction time. The construction time is dams, with lower levels of those that motivated the rationing in
even lower in the case of power plants operating with diesel 2001. Reservoirs typically fill up in summer (rainiest season), from
despite more expensive fuel costs. For example, a 480 MW power December to March, and are depleted during the dry period
plant has an installation cost of US$400.00/kW [17]. Prices per- between April and November. Nevertheless, rainfall patterns in
formed at the auctions, showed low costs of diesel and fuel oil (US 2014 and early 2015 were well below average values. As of January,
$45.46/MW h), when compared to natural gas and coal (Table 1). 2015, many of the hydroelectric dams located in Southeast and
However, because higher variable costs (US$272.28/MW h) elec- Midwest reached 16.84% of capacity, while in Northeast levels of
tricity generated by diesel fuel is the most expensive reservoirs reached 16.41% [38]. On January 19, 2015, a spike in
(US$317.74/MW h) compared to other sources. energy use, coupled with a transmission failure, forced the
R. Corrêa da Silva et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 59 (2016) 328–341 335
1.1%
81.9% 0.5% 70.6% 11.3%
4.4%
2.7% 2.4% Biomass
Nuclear
6.6% 7.6% Natural Gas
Wind
1.4%
2.6% Hydro
2.5%
Oil Derivatives
4.4%
Coal
Fig. 6. Total electricity supply in (a) 2011 and (b) 2013. Adapted from [7].
Fig. 7. Electricity generation by region from 2011 to 2014. Data from [21].
national grid operator (ONS) to order utilities to cut electricity to electricity, two times higher than in 2000 (Fig. 1). In addition,
parts of major cities, including São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. rationing has been partially avoided because new transmission
lines were built to interconnect the electricity grid from different
regions. Studies have been carried out in order to evaluate the
4. Discussion possibility of Brazil face electrical shortage in 2015 [39]. In an
optimistic scenario — considering no delay in the new plants start-
4.1. Security supply and main reasons for the crisis up schedule — rainfall must be more than 79% in the average long
run in the Southeast and Midwest; both regions being responsible
Brazil's electricity supply is more resilient than it was in 2001, for 70% of total storage capacity. Thus, reservoir levels will exceed
when the entire country was last forced to ration electricity. 10% in November 2015, which is the minimum level of security for
Thermoelectric power plants now provide 28.82% of the mix for operating of the hydroelectric power plants. However, it has not
336 R. Corrêa da Silva et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 59 (2016) 328–341
1.8% 11.5%
69.0% 15.5% 14.5%
59.7%
1.6% 1.7% Biomass
7.9% Nuclear
7.1%
Thermal
1.8% Wind
4.3% Hydro
3.7%
Small Hydro
Solar
Fig. 9. Projection of installed capacity by energy source from (a) 2013 to (b) 2023. Adapted from [45].
identified that an 1% increase of electricity consumption generated the accumulation of water, which in turn, act as energy stocks to
by renewable resources increases real GDP by 0.20%. Therefore, the be used in times of drought. Run-of-river power plants generate
expansion of renewable energy projects does not only maintain electricity using little or no accumulation of water.
the high share of renewable sources but also enhances the econ- More than 70% of the remaining hydroelectric potential is
omy of the country. found in the Amazon basin (Northern region), where the topo-
Economic viability of renewable energy technologies to tradi- graphy is not favorable for the formation of large reservoirs.
tional generation technologies including nuclear, coal-, and gas- Within the Amazon basin, Xingu sub-basin has 12.7% of the
fired power plants was compared in a recent study [46]. The costs country's inventoried potential [33]. Other sub-basins that have
to produce electricity of several technologies were compared using considerable potential are those of the Tapajós, Rio Madeira, and
the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). The case study power Rio Negro. New hydroelectricity needs are planned to come almost
plants are mostly situated in Northeastern and Northern regions, exclusively from the North, where run-of-river power plants are
where the expansion of electricity sector will be concentrated. planned to be constructed with a limited capacity for energy sto-
Since the evaluated power plants entered into operation recently rage. In addition, the Northern region poses important political
or are still under project, the applied technologies are realistic for problems concerning the use of land for industrial purposes [16],
future power plants within a 10-year perspective. The results show given its location in environmentally sensitive areas and distance
clearly that projects applying wind and hydropower have lower from the main load centers[47]. Therefore, exploitation of these
LCOE in comparison to non-renewable resources. At a 5% discount resources on Amazon basin is associated at a high environmental
rate, LCOE of hydroelectric projects range from US$27.41/MW h to cost and low energy capacity when compared to hydroelectric
US$27.62/MW h, while the values for wind farms lie between power plants in operation [48]. The importance of this issue has
US$27.62/MW h and US$35.07/MW h. Fossil-fueled power plants generated great debate in the country, considering the existence of
operating with natural gas have the lowest LCOE (i.e., US$61.14– recent hydropower projects in the Amazon basin using run-of-
62.49/MW h), followed by imported-coal power plant (US$65.53/ river power plants such as Jiraú (3.75 GW), Santo Antônio
MW h). (3.15 GW), Belo Monte (11.23 GW), and São Luiz do Tapajós
Interestingly, the wind farm projects became significantly more (6.13 GW). Due to its extreme remoteness, the Santo Antônio
competitive than the hydroelectric power plants when the costs power plant will have the largest transmission system in the
for transmission and for social and environmental externalities are world, i.e., a length of 2400 km [49].
taken into account. At a 5% discount rate, the wind farm projects Considering the large hydroelectric participation in the
have a LCOE at US$36.24–42.84/MW h, while the values for expansion plan of the generation sector, it is interesting to eval-
hydroelectric power plants range from US$39.89/MW h to uate the hydrological seasonality. Fig. 10 shows the monthly var-
US$48.36/MW h. A biomass power plant operating with sugarcane iation of the long term average hydro energy capacity factor in the
refuse has a LCOE at US$76.82/MW h. Among the evaluated last 15 years for each region [50]. From the plots, hydrological
renewable resources, solar photovoltaic (US$218.26–248.07/ uncertainty indicated by the variation between the wet and dry
MW h) and concentrating solar power plants (US$209.11/MW h) season is clear, particularly in the North. Despite some com-
are the most expensive technologies. The costs of electricity gen- plementation to the hydrological regimes of each region, the
erated by solar energy are even higher than nuclear (US$66.83/ construction of power plants with low regulatory capacity reser-
MW h) and fossil fuel power plants fired by natural gas (US$81.91– voirs will bring a small contribution to the improvement of elec-
83.91/MW h) and imported coal (US$118.87/MW h). tricity supply security. Even though the Belo Monte power plant
has a nominal capacity of 11.23 GW, it will produce in average only
4.2.1. Hydropower 4.46 GW throughout the year. In this scenario, the construction of
Large hydroelectric power plants will increase its generation run-of-river power plants increases the challenge of managing the
capacity from 86.02 GW to 116.88 GW until 2023 [45]. Despite the electricity sector and the need for diversifying the sources of
increase in installed capacity by 30.86 GW, the participation of electricity generation in order to improve supply security.
hydroelectricity has inherent limits and is therefore projected to Small hydroelectric power plants will lose competitiveness in
decline as a fraction of the electricity generation mix. A reduction the upcoming years despite their low flood area and small envir-
by 9.3% in the share of electricity generation is expected by 2023. onmental impact in comparison to large hydroelectric power
One of the major hydropower issues today is the choice of plants plants. Since they have a mature technology and stable unit costs,
with large reservoirs or run-of-river power plants. The first allows they will not remain competitive in the face of significant wind
338 R. Corrêa da Silva et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 59 (2016) 328–341
120
110
Average capacity factor (%)
100
90
80
70
60
SE/MW
50 S
NE
40 N
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Fig. 10. Hydropower capacity factor. Data from [50]. Fig. 11. Total electricity generation by wind energy and average capacity factor.
Data from [51].
energy cost-reductions; Table 1 indicates that in average the fixed
prices of wind energy is already lower than small hydroelectric other sites in Europe and North America, the value ranges between
power plants. In addition, the viability of small facilities is more 2.0 and 2.2.
complex due to environmental licensing (in some cases the As in other countries, offshore wind technology faces some
licensing period may last up to 5 years), construction price, and technical challenges associated with operating in corrosive envir-
the cost of land. Nevertheless, by 2023 the small hydroelectric onment and installation of equipment at various water depths
power plants will have an increase in installed capacity of around [53]. Probably, these are the reasons why offshore wind farms are
2.0 GW, mainly concentrated in the Southern and Southeastern not included as an alternative to be exploited in a 10-year per-
regions, where most of the existing plants are located. It is worth spective. Since this technology will be much more attractive to
Brazil than to many other countries, further research and devel-
mentioning that this can lead to many problems and attention
opment is still necessary to bring this emerging technology to the
should be given to the cumulative effects resulting from the
market. Lack of consistent and reliable data has been also one of
merger of several small facilities in the same basin.
the limiting factors on both onshore and offshore projects in Brazil.
4.2.2. Wind energy
4.2.3. Solar energy
Since the implementation of the Program of Incentives for
Despite large areas with high solar irradiation in Brazil, solar
Alternative Electricity Sources (PROINFA) in 2004, wind generation
photovoltaic electricity is still incipient. In contrast with other
is the fastest growing source in the country. Around 95% of wind
renewable energy sources that had specific support by govern-
projects in Brazil are financed by this program [33]. Evolution of
ment incentives and policies, the penetration of the solar tech-
total electricity generated by wind energy in the last two years is
nology is lagging far behind [48]. Installed capacity is still very
displayed in Fig. 11 [51]. By looking at the plots, the significant
small and includes only research projects, photovoltaic panels
expansion of wind power generation becomes clear. In addition,
installed at the World Cup stadiums, and small plants for dis-
average capacity values indicate that the potential of wind in Brazil
tributed generation. In addition to the high costs involved, the
is more intense from July to December, coinciding with the
minimum nationalization level required for photovoltaic panels by
months of lower rainfall intensity.
the federal government for funding made it difficult to exploit this
As discussed previously, recent contracts have shown that wind
source through regulated market auctions.
farms have reached more attractive prices. Increasing participation
Solar technologies are unlikely to become competitive without
of wind energy in the electricity generation mix was the result of a
proper government incentives. Future governmental programs
combination of factors related to the external environment, tech- will rely on solar photovoltaic electricity as one of the main
nological development as well as government incentives through renewable alternative and expect to reach an installed capacity of
tax and regulatory aspects. Many foreign wind turbines companies 3.50 GW by 2023, which in turn will represent about 1.8% of total
opened subsidiaries in the country because of new loan conditions electricity generation mix [45]. Installation of solar power plants is
established by government, which require at least 60% of com- expected mainly in the Northeastern (80% of installed capacity)
ponents made in Brazil [52]. Another important factor that makes and Southeastern regions (20% of installed capacity). The focus of
wind power attractive in Brazil is logistic. Since mostly wind farms the expansion of solar energy in Brazil will be in distributed
are installed along the cost, transportation of turbine blades and generation, as it will be still difficult to compete with other
tower by ship is cheaper and less difficult than transportation by renewable resources in energy auctions. Specific auctions may be
road. Despite its rapid installation and reduced environmental carried out aiming at solar energy expansion, as occurred in 2014,
impacts, lack of storage capacity and intermittent generation are when 889.6 MW photovoltaic panels were contracted.
identified as the main problems for the further exploitation of The supply of electricity through distributed generation from
wind energy. small plants should expand. More consumers are expected to
Onshore wind installed capacity expected by 2023 is 22.44 GW, generate electricity in their homes and inject a surplus in the
which represents about 11.5% of the electricity generation share distribution grid. The electricity not consumed and injected into
[45]. Mostly of expansion will be concentrated in the Northeast, the grid can generate electricity credits subject to deductions in
where the annual wind mean velocity is around 8 m/s [22]. A the electricity bills. However, it is still necessary to create a
previous study [52] showed that wind conditions in the Northeast favorable business environment for the companies. Among the
is steadier and has much more favorable conditions than in other many problems faced by these companies is the certification
regions and countries. For example, the energy pattern factor required from inverters of photovoltaic systems, issued by the
(defined as the ratio sum of cube of the wind speed to the cube of laboratories accredited by the National Institute of Metrology
the mean wind speed) varies between 1.2 and 1.4, whereas at Standardization and Industrial Quality (INMETRO). Presently, only
R. Corrêa da Silva et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 59 (2016) 328–341 339
three laboratories at universities are currently eligible for the of lignocellulosic ethanol, also known as second generation bio-
certification of photovoltaic systems. fuels [58].
Concentrating solar power plants are not to be installed in Another problem facing the sugar industry is that much of the
Brazil in 10-year's time; probably, because of higher electricity existing cogeneration plants use low pressure boilers and conse-
costs in comparison to other renewable sources [46]. On the other quently low efficiency systems. Initiatives are necessary in order to
hand, some studies have pointed out that this technology could be renovation and modernization of cogeneration facilities. Further-
cost-effective in the arid area of Northeastern region [54]. How- more, the localization of some plants are quite distant from the
ever, the advantages of this technology combined with thermal points of electricity transmission.
energy storage should be pointed out. They can serve as a com-
plement to intermittent renewable sources such as wind and 4.3. Future role of non-renewable energy
photovoltaic, in addition to its service capacity to meet the max-
imum demands of the interconnected system [55]. According to Fig. 9, the participation of thermoelectric power
Another important future application of photovoltaic genera- plants powered by fossil fuels will continue to vary from 13.4% to
tion is in remote areas not connected to the interconnected sys- 15.6% between 2013 and 2023, as well as nuclear power plants,
tem. This is the case of remote places in Amazon region, where which ranges from 1.6% to 1.7%. High-efficiency power plants fired
almost all the electricity is generated by fossil fuel power plants by fossil fuels could be used to meet some or all of a given region's
[48]. One of the advantages is that the photovoltaic panels could continuous energy demand, and produce energy at a constant rate
also operate coupled to diesel engines in hybrid systems [56]. instead of operating only as a peaking power plant. However, fossil
More recently, pilot projects have include the installation of pho- fuel power plants should be applied with caution, considering that
tovoltaic panels floating on the surface of hydroelectric power Brazil has assumed the responsibility to reduce emissions levels of
plant reservoirs. This alternative may be advantageous given that greenhouse gases. Brazil is signatory to the United Nations Fra-
it takes advantage of already installed transmission lines. mework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); however, by
As discussed previously, solar energy for water heating is far being classified as an economically development country, it is not
the most widespread application of solar energy in Brazil. The required to meet the goals of reducing greenhouse gases emissions
local solar heating industry is well developed and able to supply a established in the Kyoto Protocol framework. Nevertheless, the
growing market. However, there is still a need for more public country has undertaken efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emis-
awareness in the advantages of this technology [54]. sions and established a voluntary target of reducing between 36.1%
The comparatively high cost of producing electricity is one of and 38.9% of its total emissions of greenhouse gases projected for
the main obstacles to the development of solar energy in Brazil, 2020, according to Law 12.187/09 [59]. Emissions from electricity
particularly given the wind energy with major unexploited generation should not exceed 63 MtCO2 in 2020 [45].
potential and lower costs. Further growth of the solar energy still The current international scenario has also affected the Brazi-
depends strongly on policy-makers. A previous study [48] has lian electricity sector in terms of a strategic planning for oil and
shown that the key issues to increase the participation of solar natural gas. Recent drop in the international crude oil price has
energy lie on domestic efforts to promoting better incentives and significant impacts on the Brazilian oil and gas industry and it
supportive programs. In order to develop domestic technologies, reflects into energy woes. Reduction in oil prices in the short run,
investments are crucial on infrastructure, human resources, and and the greater volatility of prices in the medium and long run
research and development [57]. represents a major challenge for oil investments.
Even though natural gas production has grown by about 16.6%
4.2.4. Biomass energy in 2014, the domestic supply of natural gas has been largely
Biomass is another renewable source available to compose the insufficient. Natural gas imports have grown steadily since 2010
expansion of the supply of electricity generation. In this category [7], reflecting an increase in external dependence as a result of
stands out sugarcane refuse as its main fuel through cogeneration natural gas-fueled power plants operation. The growth of the
facilities. The sugar industry plays an important role in the natural gas market in 2014 was concentrated in the electricity
national energetic scenario, from liquid fuel production to con- sector, which increased by 47.4% [60].
sumption by the transportation sector and the domestic supply of In regards to natural gas, uncertainties are even higher due to
electricity. By the end of 2023 the installed capacity for electricity the supply of natural gas from the pre-salt layer [61]. In addition to
generation is expected to reach 13.98 GW, which represents an the obstacles facing the feasibility of production in the pre-salt
increase by 41.7% in comparison to 2013 [45]. layer, there is still much uncertainty about the amount of natural
Greatest potential of sugarcane refuse (bagasse and straw) is gas that will be produced. Carbon pricing may also represent
located in the Southeast and Midwest. Sugarcane harvest season — increased costs for operating reserves and an impact on their
from March or April through late October or November — coin- development. In addition, there is the possibility of more restric-
cides with the dry season in both regions where the largest tive environmental regulations and, consequently, a public reac-
hydroelectric capacity is concentrated. However, the use of tion to its development. There are still difficulties in transporting
sugarcane biomass face seasonal variable challenges, which in turn of natural gas because Brazilian state company Petrobras is the
reduces the capacity of biomass power plants to operate as base owner of the pipelines and there is no guarantee of access to other
load throughout the year when compared to other conventional producers.
thermal energy sources. Currently, coal-fired power plants are responsible for just over
Biomass is the single renewable source able to generate both 2.5% of the electricity generated in Brazil. Two main factors con-
electricity and produce liquid transportation fuels [53]. Due to an tribute to the insignificant use of coal in electricity generation:
anticipated increase in the use of sugarcane for ethanol produc- coal is found only in the South and its characteristics are not
tion, it is unlikely that, in future, sugarcane can be relied upon as a favorable because the high ash content. The future of coal could be
major renewable source for Brazilian electricity generation. New promising if highly efficient and environmentally friendly tech-
technologies currently being developed will allow the use of by- nologies were applied in the new and existing coal-fired power
products from the refining of biofuels to produce transportation plants. Technical and economic feasibility of technologies such as
fuel, which will lead to a shift in the use of this energy source [16]. cofiring, fluidized bed combustion, in-situ gasification, and Carbon
Thus, sugarcane refuse are expected to be used for the production Capture and Storage (CCS) should be evaluated.
340 R. Corrêa da Silva et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 59 (2016) 328–341
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