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Hindsight Bias:
The Mayor Daley words that “the transfer of the Chicago Skyway and the downtown
parking garages to concessionaires had proceeded without incident and that if the city did
not have the cash infusion from the parking meter concession, "you're talking about a
serious economic crisis for Chicago”, seems to reflect an hindsight bias about the
predictability of success of the privatization deals. While the mayor boasts his
groundbreaking privatization strategy, Comparatively, on July 31, 2009, just six months
after the infusion of privatization funds into the city budget, Mayor Richard Daley's
administration predicted a gaping hole in next year's budget that will eclipse the current
financial problems -- even after the city exhausts its brand-new $320 million rainy day fund
reserved from the privatization deal. Furthermore there is little or no evidence as to the
long term implications of the deal. This clearly reflects the Mayor’s overestimation about
the predictability of the success of the deal, and the decision to privatize thus suffers from
hindsight bias.
The decision process: Individual vs. Group