كتاب الإدارة بالأرقام

.

2008 – 1429
000-0000-000-00-0

tarjem@mbrfoundation.ae
www.mbrfoundation.ae
(+971–2) 6345407 :
(+971–2) 6345404 :
(+971–4) 2653661 :
(+971–4) 2651623 :
(+961–1) 786230 :
(+961–1) 786233 :

!
$
% &
" ' () * $
+ ,
." #
.
, #
(+9611) 785107 –

:

(+9611) 794978 –

:

9
11

13

:
17

20
22
24 !"# $
25 % " &$
# '#(
28
29 " #

:
33 )
35 )

'#
37 )
)
39 *+# )
41 ,
)
5
42 -# . )
44 + )
)
46 / ' % )
47 0 # 1 2 )
48 2 3%

50 " #

:
53 '!
54
4 ' )
56 5, "# 6

59 )
!
74 )
!
( 6" '#(
77 ! 78#
82 " #
:
85 $ )

88 (Balanced scorecard)
9# :;
6
93 )

!
94 $ )
0#># 0!
96 9 2
$
97 $ )
# ? .

:
101 (Forecasting) #
6
103 # )
104 # )

. ,
104

106
107
108 !"
110 # $ % & '
111 ()
'*
112 # ;!" .6
113 0 ,, +, )-./ '
114 ', 1. ,. ', '
116
0 1. ,. ', '
117 ,2 3- '
122 . '
126 4
129 $ '
130 '! %
:
135 4!#

135 5 6
136 # 32 2 # / - '+
138 76
140 -& 3 .
141 3+ 2 8 77
7
142 "># '# # % 5(
142 .9 ,
:+ ;*
147 , .9 372 +, <.
147
! (
148 - 6
151 - =$
152 " #
! "#$ :
157 2 # / :, > -+

158 6 ?
161 @ ?.' ),*
165
8

3#1 45 !1...!"# $ %&'( )* +,- ./0 )1
6& 7 8 4 4997 ,- :;0<=
...,> "- ?- 9#(@
HI 9,J .BC D'E 'F )(G A
K#@ L >98 ! 4 L99/, M9NO !N(
'7 %JE #1 HP K#@ L
@ Q5
'R .N K- HI 45 6ST U9FV B"0WJ
%,X90=
.%-/I 40 Y9/@ %- +,- '7 7@ L Z [
]F ^; _0 J _0 4I

K .'7W0 %'"F )0à bc,E )
.)0E
9
10
?

d 9 e- %7` +,- f' %,E, 0I ^'g M90h

i01
j J Uk l JO %S U<01 e#
!I S@ n' (0I 6@oF op U9 3#1 m0 6PJ
q
_0 r90j %#R +,- s-E j t# Q5 9X
:uvI %'L 9;
7* A, B " 3
#7 #7
6 C 3. $ * D. 7
E9 3 37 %
7 F G
.#7: 6
E'- B % 07 I * #7
1 < ?$ ? 9

1 7 , ? ? .
.?--+
F)
7, # 6 7. :
.4 ,, =7 G
> * ,. % ' #

..9 , +,
.

:
11
12

y O 10I .,NP dI 9O E M x "A

l %,E,E q - G YzNP ,#P n'
f' %,E,
9N@ %'J#= 09 ^J :/{9= o= +,- 90j SI@
.%',"# 'A d,',W0 /0 07`
UFO1 - %R |W0' y O _0 oR

^07 ^'N0E t(0' }7 +,- 07P % 5 %/E,J d
b'~9@ _0 U<'
r> %R )7'(N01 U97 )1
- '#1 R %J# 7@ n' (f') %,E, m
- x 49#1 0,E, #0(
N %',70 'O
%'(RO 0 8(= %g0I 0 7@ %0( YN
.r>O 0 3#1 %['X -5
%' '@ +,- ]F ( F' UFO1 _0I oR
+,- y O S'I0 q(0PL )'R90 6I
}7 r UFO
+,- %"]7 %'A LB 1 !70E d/E,J 9mI UFO
.]7A 6,@ '{9@ .]7A Q5 !X90, %,'9I UFO 9;@
.r> % 5 D/E,J
UFO - %1 pW0J
_0 nA R@
d,',h 7 !"# o9R iA #~ ~- U- !G1
13
%,70E %/E,/I UFO1 - nW, 7,NP
b~
)',- :7,N #= b~ UP !8 +,- %/E,/ q ,
".UFO1 UP"
, U- UFO1 b'W; / 4"~ !R
%'J~5 y9;J %pzp N1 "F
r> % 5 n( :1 '1
!;/ ph ^F90 %"P o O 5 - '@01 Hph
U<0 70 '";@ 7 ^X
^'~9 %pzp - E
.]0 e- %'W'~90 U9
m 0 4 %N'E( %7= q %C> x yVEP
yz> 9"E ]/ 0
%,E,E q _0
(.f') %,E, yz> %J# q9(E0@ !"#
14
‫א א‬
‫‪ ! "#‬‬
‫

‬
‫
&‪:! " #$ %‬‬
‫• *)‪. ' ( $‬‬

‫ ‪+
,‬‬ ‫•‬
‫• ‪.
-‬‬
‫• ‪./
0‬‬
‫• !
‪.

!( ! #0‬‬
‫• ‪.
($‬‬
‫• ' )‬
‫‪15‬‬
16

rP 4 WJ
UFO ^ %,G Z#
0P '5 +G
@90 ('; UF 'J (I %W/X
I Z# .0' U- d-P - S/7P 'J %J#
4 Q5 G@ D']; 3#1 45 !1
K9 :/{9=
Q5 49 O YG y d/{9 %90 I
0'V1 49 L :/{9= %75 I UFO q
.UFO q r R U#1 P %R D(p 7, 4 #0E
%'1 O y r5 (> ^ > o7 ,N1 H"F

YG, %(E1 (I %IG U- ]P ; !G 9
:i yF .{9 KL %#1 - '/{9 - S n' O
uV@ L HF9, %#' dJ
UFO q Q5 L P"
U9F 6
7 G, "#0 L . -
- ".zB ';/@ !FO %#E %N'E( U9 3#(1 (01
% 5 D90E %/,0 DJ7p > <8 - HV
#GP
UFO q qP = K#P L" _9$ 4I
%/,0
m oL )F oF P- 9 "
S,@ L BI 7#
4'E'] 48 "#GP" %",I B * "K#P L" %",I
L dE/ 9#G r90E +,- 5 % HE' %,G= 4 +,-
SRA EI !R %,G= q F 6
I
.UFO :1 '1
HE' UFO 5 )R9@ l %7'7A %,G=
%7'7A
~- %7` %,G= "@ 5
UFO %,G=
r
6 O "J %9 r '7#@ r90E
17
DG0L DI8 r5 .# !#0 K 9~
.'(N@ %IG, M'/0 = F
^G - ^ !#0@ l
:uv +,- U97@ J
- %&(#@ )z> 0 :/{9= +,- !EI , ^9@ •
'F ^G= G ! 'J !"# ¡ l D-E
.d9 !G1 '/0
9P L5 f' M¢ 4 ^'"m, { BW~ K •
.U9 #1 B9 S@ l %1F >
%&(#01 UF #1 45 !1
T£ :/{9= 3J %m'0 HPI
.) %#F90= !"# D- I !"# )P ' UF¤ %&`>
q !GJ - |W0 ¡ f,¥ +,- 9~9= e- -
f,¥ o- yF
]0P % Q5 !X90 9N
o-O )(0P - ¦,= = :" f,¥ I"
F ".K %J# U-
.'(N0 !GJ ( 9 " :yF
F %'#'(N % D97 ?- b'~9@ y5 f,¥
:d, +,- r90
$ , .,#0 "'J !; M / o9 sP P5"
6 9;a BW'~9@ !P 6
G ! §S
!R 7J %'PS'= 'N<0 D "; ,= 45 .,=
%F r G ! %'S %G( ;= X %'#J %
".^G= q '0 P7@
+N9 :/{9= K9/X {
b'~90 #1
:<0E 0#10 ~ D/,= q %' :/{9", G
[ "
1O S" "
0F Y0E L" :! D",I
18
.%IG 6,0 BS'¨ B'0@ ,= +W~VJ %'#'mG0 D",
4I
K 9J- - :/{9= F9 £'0 # ©z
y£9h . # _0 _ +,- !"08 '(, F9=
%E", d7'7 - F9 Q5 K %J# #1 F9=
.J
q 490J
70 UFO ^ !#0 - %p %,G ^7@
%N10 [ %,;/ 7@ UF ^ !#01 P9#8 - %,G=
%66 @ +,- O !"0G F !1
B#1 #1 Uk L
:1 :;0<= !"- Y 3#1 G@ "I D9,#= D9N
m B-9P y;/PL 0 .,ª .d=# r90E= +,-
D7 <0 70 q o7 %']7,0 %'E/
.UFO q ^ H0G0 '1 9#G %m'0I %'m'@0
(Business Analyst) y"-¤ Bz,j !"# 9 )R
!70P M $ )"EF %,G= q o O !',h EF B
L5
%00G K UF D 7@ 0 !"# )P #G 4I
)'5
!"# )0F H/ .70 q R E7 Q5 oR )P
.70 9 T L ),#/ L )PO B 5 L
Y0« 4 !(F )E/P 7 4 "I 4 =
qP %R ) 8 ] f'] Q5 !>J
!"# 9
-5 ^(0= U (I !IG 9R ) H(p 9~9=
.q M '0 %7 )W Q5 ] f'] - ¨
70
D- 70 q K %'-9P %',#J 9p .,> b*
'5 y9X9 B1 "= %" DF ^X +,- BI
.d~=
19
UFO ^ %'E/ %,G= ¬'<,@
.( yz>
:d 7P ^1V1
UF %J~5 !'X/0 %(= !"G) e# '7#0 •
.( %R L
{9= !#¢ K 9~ 4 n') K 9~ U- •
.(EWJ '/0 _9,N %'I f' 4EP5 )P #G
%/,0 e[O <0 0 n' UFO q %P U- •
.(UFO q :1 1 9R !"G)
p 7/ ¨ UF¤ % %7'"- K 9R U- •
.% UFO [ +,-

[ !G1 9N0@ % %/E,J UFO1 ?0#@
s b~ d- 4 B- G# m0 dm
+,- o?> ./0 4v ®
9 .'(N01
U9/"I zNX +,- ® L )',- ./0 b~ #@
(=1 _0 0m
'/ !70E
#@ ^~ +,- U97 6I % %/E,/ q zNXL
9; !#$ 7 3#(1 #0 8 UFO1
.B9~ I
U70 ^ / ,# S - (- 4 ,#P
!#
/ +,- "0- ,# G( +@
§S
!E ,# 49I 9 d0 ,> 7 M dE'] (E
20
E0 L J
0 D#$ )',- y9;A
y5 Q5 d0 y9h .%1m0 %"= ? yz> L5
6 .)1 oS0L Q5 o= 3#1 r O !X !1 d,I
9R DIG %'([ E@ 9O 4 #GP P1
:A
y9FV1 497 L :/{9= I +W~
9~9 U- +~9/
+,- F 70#@ (I %(EP s
f# +,- !1
]
.= !J M !"#1 U'7
07P 6
4S'= !' _'1 %7 47J %,G DoR
BJ# y97 ^'N0 l UFO1 z"0 z ',-
:5
M > F M %-X !(F %9 O UFO oN-5 d"
J 9N@ yz> bRP !G1 %9 O q Q5 !X90P
(NP
o O * r90E %#10 D',"# 'F UFO %-X
:d, S'"0 !G1 D9 UFO %'X +,- ~-
.o7 / %9 •
.r>O Dp= f'7= ^ 1 %9 •
.%E", 9N0 7 ^X %> Q5 ^,N0 •
%/E,J 5
7'(N@ 0 -9F L BR B",- HE' dJ
J %'m'@0 J Q5 y9X9, @ 5 #(0P %N'E1
."O ;F

UFO1 %J7p UFO1 %(= %&'( +"E@
%J7J qo +#EP 4 ',- d( M +¯O K d
%J 7'7h %/E,/ q 9" = 9$ 6 d UFO1
! %E= b(;@ 4 §#@ d
%¨ ]J +;FV1 J
21
% (7 ^;1 %Fz# D %EA SI= ) J
UFO Q5 9R ~ (0-L :- >V@ %'m /
''7@ %-X !R (UFO1 8 ',- .(N@ l)
Q5 = ^J@ l d %J7 q .K D7 M
y9 UF !" F k M M ` !(F yE
"¦ 9~9=

%'-1 6 %',70 9P %JI y h
)'R901 U97@ %'# # ^~ (d-1 /01 )
.%19,N= D',"# #= q .'7h %> ,#$ :/{9=
US %'`F ( 9P 3#1 1 L %7'7 /0P P [
!# NP +7(P P [
!"# +,- DIG -E !R
.f# f' {9= Uk l d DIG U= D',"#
5 %'V1 I 4 +,- P-E@ r> %'7N P
9N0 +,- q S@@ .;# I UFO

4S GP l S0= %-E !] dR990
%IA +,- F IO d B* IO %IG HW~ n'
B(I B7]- !G@ %',70 P HW~ "I
?I %-E1
6,@ qm~ r ,# 1 BI 45 !1
:/{9= U
.3#( ',- .,N "I o'"# % 9PO
B* IO DIG %I8 d]FX !"#
r9G1 %E,R !I ( )
O YG
r9G 6,@ !'X/@ )# H> -

%IG ',#
22
7 4 <0
(X 497W0E L 4'"- 5" :i y97
B5 :) H,F..."b'W; )P +,- 4 ; )((E1 o O ^R0

7J U# % G % -" :y7J ¦UFO o71 4997 L
."EWJ % '70 _1
- nW(@ L %'# f'7 %= %',70 d 6,@
:/{9= r m1 (E00 dJ
'J d"F 15 %E=
1 Q5 T !; 'I 1 K# L %'/ #G@
M f'
¤ UFO1 49J ¨ I .4O
'I 49J# L 9PI o9 UFO1 J d7N (
0(p
o 4 70 ¨ I .L U q 4 /
UFO %N91 J HE' %,G= 4 GFP -
E +,- "0#= .'(N0 °` U<0L !1

.(N * P +,- P'IV@ ^
7J >v ',7@
._0 )07P M !I dm !G1 UFO1
%',70 f- +,- UFO1 S' "@
b"E@ UFO1 45 !1
]0 0P %1m0 ,N0@ l
7'(N@ %',1F n' %P
y V1 LB F !I ]0P %#10
B',"- '9 %,'9 #@ 5 !1
% D/E,/ 9P %JI ^
1 o/0IL 4 "I
r> % 5 %/E,J M o '7
G % ® 0PL ® pV0 'F 7J A
%/,0, BP iA P;- (I ` ?0#
pO '7 %E
.!"- %- !I !17 DIG +,- S0=
%'P B'/ UFO1 .'(N@ ?0#
r> %R
HPI B([
F MO U# pO 'F %P )]N-5
23
q ( - nW(@ +7(@ (I !IG= e#0@ DIG
y97 .>V0 HF %J;1 %m'0 @ ® %,G=
(1 "
; %A d ; +,- D-E N> 45"
%J; A .` - %,G ( KG0I - 49
9 49E
KG0IL %A ; %J 49/{9= !G'J
HF pO KG0I 0 r> F` 97(`
.!F ]E>
§#@ L IP
UFO1 %' - %
UFO1 45 !1
A T d/0P UF Q5 od8 !I !9h
yE !#¢ b~ UP yz> %'# ]0P Q5 !X90 §#@
k ZEP !X901 o( ¦J90= UFO d y O
~- Y9/0
.!J ]0P ±9,1 !R %(]; D7
e/0 uV@ l 9P q[ +,- (UFO1 ) $
D(p '9 0,' 45 !1) %W~ % 4 9N
.(UFO1 oSR 3#1 d S'C

UFO1 /"I %N7 q +,- BI SIP 4 ',-
!" 4EP5 M 6',- )N y y VJ
0/E,J GP : j
¢ ."¦y"-O y¥ o; d UFO1
.L :971 B8( BW~ B«X _9$ 49 4
4 §#@ UFO1 J
d/1 19R :W~9 :,,# .,NP
y9 UF !" :971 ''7@ F M !(F B"] uV
"¦ 9~9=
24

UFO 5 )/{9@ )@ !70E ,- o;
%1 U'7 §# 9J
,"- 9P [ )/{9@
%/,0 9P .` - % q ]0P % %'];5
%/E,J )<0E@ ,- o;
r> (#1 M

,- 9 BTG f'
% D/E,/ [ UFO1
^;1 d0@ UFO1 4 I .)@ !70E
!',W0 ]0P oN-5 - o; F90 "'1
)"''7@ 7
.d];
o; B=- 49I 4 d,- R90 ! :>O yE
¦UF¤ B 49I dI D'~
%<0E= UFO %' /@ 4 _9,N= 5 .L :_9$
(B7L %N7 q b'~9@ 0') '1 "'J DFz#

45 %']; D'( 9
UFO1 - _9,N=
49#1 _0 D= q %GF 00
(#0 bX
.x
! ! "

#! $%
)`90E@ @ "7 Q5 %G( H,X " 6G y97 F
"!'J yGPL UFO 4997@ 0P
= 7P l %1R 9R 9 y97 #
%7'7A
9N0 6 !G n'
UFO1 r R 6G
%&'1 Q5 PP 9,J
UFO1 0F Q5 P 97@ %'"0 )-9"m
:d, S'"0@ PR9
9 $ !"#
.BR (I Q5 y"-O 'R990 U<0 U7@ •
25
M O
%E= ^ :,#0= ]1S D#F9@ S@ •
d-9 r90E /@ I D'> )(;@
.'0>L !(F
1 %19W;= S0= "0E= :E= D#F9@ •
]7 m "0 ^
D(,N DE/0L DL³E0
.%9E1 0FL U- +,-
:uv 9W +,- /0 Q5 #'g %71E DS'= #J@
D9,#= ?I B"I D9,#= %"P 'R990 DJ •
oI I 49P 4 ,N0@
! .'F !G1
9 UFO1 UP 4 68 L %X/ q yz01
. /0L q y8 !8
M m VI 491S +,- SI@ l d %'P %/; •
´ # 4 ",- 5 B([ f'
Y9E !"-
(%45) %(E1 491S ~ dN#@ (Excellence Models) S'"0
%R %'O q ,#µ .S'"0 f'7 +,- ! ''70
Y9E ¬; #O D#'(= 9$ UP Q5
U'7 +,- F UFO1 UP 4 rP
491S ~
D9N> %'7N J )90« (E1 U LB 1
f/P .'7h ^ DE= +,- !F %/,@ §# ¨ %,0
.]/
%19#X - iA P;- y"-O %&'( % S'= |W0@ •
U<0EP ® B(#X O #
:= "0E= ^ !#0
b~ U9/ !G1 UFO e# M UFO1
.´-5 L )'R9@ - %,' Q5 "0E= y9« K
26
Q5 B0E q y"-¤ $ !G Q5 PP 9
4'EP ,0 !G1 !"# 9N01 ;7P
'0 9N0
HF9 %#JP #@ d~= * Q5 D F l %7 } (=
3#( 70# "I f'
Dm S .'7W0 ~A
'0 .y9` HF I m !"# " 9N0 49I

%,"0G KO %W~ %'m'@05 +,- @L )'J 9;7=J
'0 4 VN> 3#( 70# "I f' %W~ N> Y` +,-
.%<0E= 'R990 UEFO %G( 9= '@ §#
)70 N1 %71E 7/ oF P- 9
%,'9I iA P;- <0 ~ PIV0
UFO1
)1 U97P R od8 !I +,- N'E ,0 !G1 !"#, S'¨

U7@ UFO1 J 6I .9N0 y¥ 0> §# ¨
- Q5 %J U9/ b~ !G1 %~ # %#] %'@9,# -F
i01
%E= :'m'@0z (I %> §# ¨
7 ^X
.9N0 '0 BR %" %,' UFO1 49@
$ !G $ %&'() :,- - 4v ® ph
- (- 4 / %7'7 FP 4 d71
(y"-¤
´0P %'(¶ %'= ] D#'(= .9E0 :1
.D9,#= P 5
BE> 9N0 nW( D',"#
L5
%E" %'O UEFO q !'X/@ _0 FP
%,'9 d UFO1 49I 7'00 }7 MSS- 6P
# 4v yA 9 "I) d,8 L d7'7 !@ ., !JO
UFO1 %7'7 - )I0 yz> 6 (
DIG
.% 7 y9;/
27

)'#P B# FP 4 !;/ ^'~9 U0> V@
U- !G1 %/E,/ q 49@ 4 ¢ 'I .% 5 %/E,J 9R91
.UFO1 %/E,J )',- .,NP )07P +,- .(N
^F % .N= ´0P DoR % 5 %/E,J 971 9;7=J
DE= ^~ % %m'0P z B UFO1 DomJ
£'#
.) B UFO <0 sj Q5 0R
dI J9@ 1 L fV1 % D/E,/ %JI s0G@
:d % 5 %/E,J 49@
S'I01 S0 %È( q :'7#0 - #01L %È( •
I +,- PS'I@ LB 1 %"= 9O !',F +,-
'/0 %19#X B([ '7#0 §# .%"= [ 9O
% )J@ 9
%/,0 /@ Q5 %J~5 !G/ y"0
.b'WX dm'@0 )R9@ D 5
L % 5 %/E,J ]J % ^F90P zJ :%F1 US0L Y; •
Y; %J7p 6I F %F 4" 19~ d-@
.z> !"#
.'7h Q5 5 !I +#E@ 4 ¢ n' :b~ K 9R •
.%W~ ^J K
%" ^J M %E= o/I %',-J ^J +,- S'I0 •
.r>
UFO1 %/E,/ 1#'0 ]GP5 yz> ',- 6
. MV1 yz> U- fO q cI@
28

# $%& ' ' *
+ ,%- $" .& /(!")
2 34 56 789 :; < /=> ?9 0 1
.

:( )
•
." ! #$ %
&
' *+, -.
% / 0"

. " # %
$ &' " !
7+89; <5 =>6 ? !@" :

+23. 456
•
."%
A82 -!
UP %,G= HE'" :)97P +7( ,F %97= q
UFO U1 ( 3#(J .")P97(N 5
UFO1
.E/1 E/P ^;@ L B'P '7#@
? B *+, C9 DAE
$ FG" : %2
•
."7+AE HE? < ! < 7+AE HE? <
:1 , Y/ GP · # 4I E 4/ 4VI
>¸ %,' 9 ,#I o;J
UFO1 o;
Q5 U9,# q[ ^ )¥ 4 7J )',- "0-L % j M @
%'9m )07` +,- /h ^
E 4/ '5 !X9@ l ]0
% N= 0/E,/ )P5 !1 o; ,- %'V1 J0- q
.
_0
29
30
‫א
א‬

! ,) 2$ (! 3 4& 5

6 1
($1 ) 0
( 7
' %
8( 9 ;! <=! #0
,1
? . 6 <=! ,1 >! #0 4&! "&
@ ( ;!A 5$ 4$& "& B
,1 !;A
@ )( .

.C!) ,1 D
=$ E((- 251
; ? C!) 1
:! " #$ %&
.
@ •
.((

@ " •

F(- GH $ •
) ' •
31
32
&
%# -97 S - (- UFO1 UP 45
%"'F Q5 F y£9· dI R0· %/,0 D ~ .]7 %P=
m ;h DF %-X )z> ^'N0E@ %E",
{9P 4 P 7
U .` - .]E (µ
3#( #1 % %'"F 70 %'1EA D',"# UFO
6I
F M %-X !(F b~ 9X oN-5 !R
dE= .'(N0 U # .''7@ M ov oN-5 !R
= F J9@ " n' UFO1 (M / f')
.= HF9
4¹J 6
B#'g K#P "I BJ B",- B +7(@ J
US0,'J (,# /) B# :9/=1 US0L UFO 5 UP +,-
%'-1 DE", ^~9 % oN-5 n' /1 U
U %<0E= UFO h R %'"F f'7 ¢5

/0 % 7 _WXO s0@ UFO1 4 "I
.'";0 %
n' %W~ %- 9Na US0,@ dJ
B",- 9I
e- ! UFO1 UP J9@ R9 G
%N(@ %J UFO 49@ 4
b~ U9/ !G1 UFO
%W~ %'",- -9F yz> !I '@ 0 n' B#
9I qPI Q5 %J~5 B",- UFO1 !#µ
.BJ
:

33
7 9N0, ^k %',"- ]0P dN#@ UFO %-9"¥ •
."0E= !',W0
%N(@ )'5 %'7N D1E M %J~5 n' 4 UP •
9P %JI ^ )¥ %'P5 Q5 %J~5
%E= KT
.D7 %J B-E B > ),#R
D9N@ oR5 n'
R [ m0 K UP •
)0',1F )0P S ¨ %IG !(F )',- )',>
.!G0,
U<0 4" .'F0 ¬'W"0, UFO %JI ^ª •
.%W'WX DR "@ %W'WX Dz>
U ."- r KO B7J h 0 Dz> ( •
d0' D1E DoR5
%E", )0'N@
1 oGP5 )- 0 .'F !',W0 ^k % DR<
.%#10= D',"- !'E0 %'# f'7
:90E= !I +,- JO DE= o/I '7 U<0E •
.O ;F dm'@0L
q ]0P %#10 6I 7 k -E", U<0E •
. %/,0 9P .'(N@ D7
. 9R9 ? [ ] UF +,- M90« L •
4( HF !G1 >¸ )~- 0 M
)£R9 •
.)'<0E
& '#" () *+ !"#$ % $
"# ,-. / 0 *1 2#$". '34$ $

. (5
34
& ' $

9 oS$ !8 q91 S'"0 4 bRP UP M +,-
'J .£(N L % 'J % !£'k zJ
BC 9X= 4'(I
6,@ 'J l % J
%"PO %(E1 O 6I 49P7
® G0@ +~9/ .,N@ B([ 49P7 - %R %=
6I .,"IV1 % 97 49 4 Q5 %,I % #@
!G1 UFO1 UP .'(N@ 7@ l DIG 6,@ yA
%J7p GP 4
%'O )@/X %JI +,- A 4 d]SR
.%JI %E= UEF :1 UFO1
UP % 49PF :1 YJ s }7 y97 F
y O oS$ 45 y97P
M'0> Z M(R5 y OJ
UFO1
- |W0 9 BW'WX 49' Z b'WX zI
UEFO :1 10 UP 9 UFO1 UJ .UFO1
)P¹J 6
%#10 .'F@ R %- Q5 ´0« JO
F ^ UFO1 .'(N@ 7J %'# UEF ,N N
U .'(N@ r>O UEFO o/-5 ~5 !"- #(0
q[ :1 )'1 %P7", +#E )#(N1 4EPJ

!I !G1
· =" :9 UFO1 U R .]- .,> 0 -
"¦49,"# L U T !"#P
UP ´0« B(J
r> %'P
%'P
4 §# ¨
%'# D'zX %£'# D9,# Q5 UFO1
.]9- D19#X 9R Q5 M ' UEFO %J z B 8 ),#R U-
Q5 M @ F l U R0« l D9,#= J9@ r90E +,-
UEFO m
)@ HF9 ."F/@ y U '
35
"0E DL j (UFO1 'J .(N@ L l) r>O
)9 .1 U )I0 = UFO1 UP %' S7@
.),0 L !I %' !',7@ % j Q5 MG( ^(N 1 M
UFO1 UP %'9º ~ %"= % %N7 #@
D= D? |9@ d 'J )7'(N@ 0 l %E=

O 0 ?- 9N0@ l +#JO
9~9= +,- y >
UEF ^ !#0 %' 49/{9= s . !8 +,- '#@ L
B(J
)1G0= !"# y¥ !#0 49 n' r>
49,"# - r>O UEFO ]z r BR B&'8 4 ¢
UP ^~ Q5 D? y (@ M .)1G0 d8 +,-
Uª "0E 9N@ .'7h !R b'W; .N +,- UFO1
.%E= K
UFO1 UP y9"G _1 I > %N7P

UFO1 U 49 n' E §# L y9"G 4 d
.'(N@ §# 5
] UEFO %JI )@ = !G
US0, E7 !"- %#'(N :(= ."#0 !G1 U
.)'J .(N= E7 ]z 4 ¢ )
%'O D/;1
:7
78
UEF %JI UFO1 UP .'(N@ GP +,- A •
JO UFO1 %J7p GP !FO +,-
%E=
.',# %N90=
.UFO1 UP (UFO) D9,#= ; %JI •
UP ^ !#0 D? y (@ +,- -E@ %&'1 J9@ •
.UFO1
36

)1 ¬0<= E7 %#'(` ^ UFO1 .'(N@ 0 •
.9E0 EF )7'(N@ - ,0ª o O 5 )7'(N0J
.%<0E= %'"F f'7= ."#0 n'
( & &

UJ
%, %R BJ UFO1 UP 49I %N7P #@
:§# K UFO1
= 3> ?@ AB+ C1 9D ) 3 < :;9 <
:E ()
<0 0 l UFO +,- U M90« 4 »
49 L F .(K D UFO 49@ 4 M) 'N<0
%70 ! <0 0
8( U<0 UF¤
UFO q {5 U- ',-
%A q ) U .'(N@
.(<0 HF uV ®
F !I 9R9 ¼9/j 4£ ?@ +,- U M90« 4 »

/0L )1 %X> %/E,/ :<0E= §(m# n'
=" :z
B ]F 7@ M 7@ !(F yE +,- U97@
BIV0 UFO %JI +,- "¦ 9R9 F
- (#'g UFO K )'J 0 , B/0j) %J
:Bz]F S'"01 §1R..."¦¦60F9 6,0E " :)0V
S'¨ 7@ 6,0C 6P IV0@ #1
"j 5"
."%J
AB+ C$1 9$D ) $3 < :9$F
:E () G=1 # H
37
7@ !8 +,- U @ UFO1 UP ]0P
%'7@ e - (Graphs and Charts) U9 (Reports)
F %J UFO 49I +,- A 4¹J 6
(Presentations)
.%J 70 @ B'(- 49
U# ^~91 .,#0 DE= r5 7@ s 4I
'@ ¡
%W/X :#1 I +,- M90« %IG,
: E= ^ f,R 70 ,` = 6 omJ
%E=
= ¦70 =" :uv !G1 yVE (J
q -5 -
M ¢ Bz9` 70 +,- !"# 4I !I H"X "¦
(I 70 +,- !#0 D',"- HPJ
od8 +,-
) 7J DW/X 4½ +,- ;07 M Q5 O )1 +0P n'
¨
r> 9 +,- !"# i01 $ ¬7P §#
70 %W/X M = I L .(%'R0P §#
BoSR ,N@ %'9 DL;@ - !(70E L $
.<0E@
BP£9 B7@ +7,0@ 6E/P !£'k
oS$ %' 'IV0

:0J [ 40W/X 70
7J DW/X G-
:0W/;1 G0E@ K [ d(- 70 :s?> P ¦y970
[ DW/; e- ^'"$ %,G "@ :0J [
45 4997 F
I %(' §# ?IO mA 45 :,]F %J
45 y97P ! 3#1 US,@ F DW/; q !8 70
K# 'J
UFO 3#1 ^@ = K#@ L ;"I HP HI
.UFO q 9R ( 6 d7,0=
:7
I 5 J>
38
.'7h UFO1 UP UFO ^'g Uk •
[ U 8( % q HPI o9
j %#/
.8(
%#/ .'7W0 %J e - y R U9 70 V0 •
.:# F ^X %>
j [ 70 oSR F M +,- U M90« L •
.U<0L
)*+ &

M - 'V0 EI BR %',;/ %N7 q £ #@
i01 m, )7'7h !R UFO1 UP )R0«
)R9 UP UFO1 UJ
%E= * +,- )@-E
¬<G, b'W; 70 b'W; F e# )P §#
%W'W; %7N B<0E :W'W; 4= HF9 b'W;
)'R90 "@ l %W; %,E,E0= d q .e#
%W,;= ]/ 9 ),I 6 !(F O
- G b'W;
.%E",
_'1 UFO1 UP !£'k ',-
G %' %J#=
!I 6'@V D#'(= EF B HI 9,J )'R90 ;-
%G( 9= EF )1 U97 M 0 GP - 7@ (X
U )z0 0 %Fz- 6 HPI o9
7J M 5 6P _1
"0E@ y9/ ¾
#P ¦)W0/1 U970 !
L
5 oF 4 )/ U970 #1
:p U9 I 6
7@ 6,"#1 .,#0@ %9,# )'J U9 D 70 soR
39
,I 49@ (µ "= 4I DJz> X |W'J
L B"] )P s uV d9 !G1 70 ,0E@ 6P +,- S@
.U9' ",J d8 M !"«
UFO1 UP )'R9@ U- BW~ |W' (

DJz 3#1 HF9 %-~5 0 ( <E ('
o= 3#1 o1 Q5 8( !G1 O M '
|h F l
yz> 7E ® )7'(N@ F 6I U, - F91
) %/ 9X .,> +,- !"# !1 )(µ ',- M
;F
!j f' )7'(N@ %#10 +,- X ?I - 49 n' BC
.7P
)5 0 F !I 4
F M e- !(F B"] I,J
F
',- b0/ F %&` %$ °` HF9
UFO1 UP y£9« >v P n(- Q5 F y9£ «
)',- = _A (@ UEFO %JI )1 [ UP Q5
),"#P >v F5 !'( HF9 BI ^'P ,#µ l
.)@ !"# LB 1
=K+
$ < $3D $ $
:7D
/0 49@ n' U ´0P %",0E= D$ h •
.) z0L B' B`8 ´0P D90j
/0L n' UFO1 ´0P5 y5 HF h •
.7 ^X 'N<0 e[O 'E@
HF9 D9,#= q y9X "@ y;@ %7` 9R •
.%(= %m, =
40
, &
,N@ 4 'J
"0E !I l %N7 d
6]GP5 !17 %( B(I B,( 6 ^J 4 y= X
1 L
D9 3#(1 %S= 70 UFO 3#1 U
%7'7A .%#F90= %'1¢L ]0 ]9/ d ) y97P 4

%/E,J .'(N01 U'F U- d 4v ® !IG= 45
_0 y O 4v )NP M ,G1 UFO1

!G1 %I8 !(F )7'(N@ y )P I=
M HJ0, BTG )',- B(I B0J m
b'WX
D',"#1 %7,#0= %'P1' D/E,J +,- D''P" !;
.%'R0P
d]SR .'(N@ %W~ % E ^F90=
6
BR ^JP '/ UP UFO1 UP 4 U
q 9R91 d(0 UFO ^0"0 !R U ^~ 4¹J
%9 K h 1 zJ .UFO1 - ?I 9
',- S'I0 ¢ l 9O1 .,#0@ U %'m'@05
',- S'I0 UFO1 UP +,- 4 §# ¨
9N0
D',"# q %#10= BzX 9R9 %-( f'7 Q5 !X901
7J UFO1 UP ''7@ 0 zJ
9N@ 0 ®
§#@ )m]0J
)m]0P ''7@ 9 O 5
q90j ''7@ yz>
UFO1 UP ?0# n' .9N0 )1 U70 Q5 ^J
:n' B#JP
" ¨ EF %JI %1F, %IG %E= ^ª )P •
.!"# ^R@ U-
41
¨ ()'J oSmI o O 5 UP) )"1 o/, '7 ! )P •
.'7h DE= U 9N0 U70 _91 b0J §#
.%'m'@0 KO
)0P yz> 5 %/E,J %'m'@05 % -1 b"E )P •
.01z )0',1F
?I %- % sW0 %P = %E= %E= b )P •
.D90E= %JI +,- :EJ=
oSR Q5 B'F B'P 0 7J f' B',"- %IG y£9« )P •
.)#1 ^ sW0 !0
3/> '0 .9E0 D#'(= +,- %'1¢ D#P •
.7 ^X %SI=
9PO q
M9N0 d-1 ¿¢ /0 ^'mG@ •
F +,- D9E q yz> o? I l d /0
.( m Y/ ^X +,-
+,- !#/ p !',7@ d¢@ !G1 '0 y> 5 •
.'0
yz> '5 !X90 l U ^J [
pv q s0 4 UFO1 5 UP !I +,-

"0E= 9N0
.)I@ R9 .'(N0 VN> 9R I= 4I L5
- . &

D9,# %66 45 y97@ %7'7 / q G1 (P
:/{9= r D9,#= q ´0P5 D',"- DE=
o5 +,- B F 49' UFO1 UP 4¹J 6
UEFO
42
HF9, B/> U9,# 9 "I §# ¨
= %'"F y"-O
. = $
)#J %'P UFO1 UP DS' "J
70 D1EA UFO %(EP 3/a U97 )P
r> %'P
!',h %#10 Q5 %R l 70 - !',7@ §# ¨

=
r> D9,# ´0P ±/0 7 ^; I B0F §#
0 o5 4¹J
)@ HF9 .%F I DF i01
%"'F
.%E= %',-/ r90E §#
N> Q5 M UFO @ U- 4V1 K0-L ',-
9R
y VN> 9F KG0I U- 9 L
R
4I
d~= .D#'(= %',"- ]9- _E +,- 497 :"EF
y9(7 ¡
UFO1 UP #1
UFO 4; 4pL
d/J
VN KG0I 0 VN> 9 )P §# ¨ ]01
(VN f/P |« B([) zI VN> 4I d~=
nW( "F :1 YJ KG0I yz> )JG0I 0
UP E .(N= ^~9 .Y/ ( -
'";@ 1 L 4I 6
VN KG0I 0 zJ
UFO1
0 ® 0 3#(1 y9(7 U %'J~5 D9N>
^'"$ ),I b'~9@ G1
VN> M - G
.%Fz# D KÒ
%F1 %7,#0= D'70 [ #= q %GF 00
!C n'
UFO1 UP '";@ F M n !;/
%7 _E0I )JO U .'7h %VE B' BoSR %F
.UFO1 U -
43

: !"
#$ %& '( )*+ ,- . "& /01 2"304 , •
.5&+ 678
'1 ?@A B 2C) D+ . "&E+ F3; !<= "0> •
.G= H*+I JKCL M JN .E&+
'( O P"Q" 778 E+ 0+ R0G .5A'0 •
.S78 T; J .E&+ #UV W EX Y'ZL
+! & &

y"-O %N'¶ %&'( 0@ DE= D'N#= 0@
BP BP 49 4 UFO1 U 1 L 4I 6
B'9
%RA 4 )',- %]N D'0 .'(N0 %(E1 B# '0
B'- m0 49 4 ¢
%'J~5 %/,@ Q5 B([
q[ y9"GI UFO1 UP r>O fO %J
4 %'1E %',"- 7@ z B m0 zJ
fO
.D',"# 70 U<01 %'#= UEFO Uz-5
UP f B # M m0 .J90
S ^"J BJ U 49 4 8 - !1 +8"0 UFO1
D'0 (E1 %"'F D [ UFO 70 I dW
70 q 9N@ Q5 %RA @
%E= 'j
D0, %( !#J k !R U %'"F f'7=
"0E= 9N0 9R "P dI B G omJ
$
.UFO1 UP ]9J K 7@ r90E
44
[ M J\+ EJ+ ]RG ^ [0_
:!5A
UP .'(N@ %7` D90¶ % %#R oR5 •
'";@ %',"# BC %TG %#R= q 49@ n'
UFO1
!;/ !';/01 GF l UFO1 UP
.n
y
!"# 9N@ U %E= "0E %1 U'7 •
^F9 ^ qh ¡ D#'(", K :1 Y/ 'F 6 +,-
i01
Y/ _( nW( )7'7h ¡ M
)0'#/ )0F 4" U +,- Dµ y> 5 0
.^F9, )@¥
]0P e- y8 % - D oR5 •
%'#= KÒ %JI %IG U9 70I UFO1

"0# 7@ M) %N10= 70 ^~ ''7@ yA 6I
R e- %7` oGP5 !R ()C %R I +,-
.90j '@ U9 70 6,0
'`3 + 0 0
:!"
^F9 %"]z= 7@ f'7 UF U )90« µ •
.%¨ %#/ +;F .'7h "0L
.J@ 4" JO UEFO :1 y;@L 1 Y` µ •
.D9,#", ! f,
%9 / DR +,- .'7W0 e# Y` µ •
.U<0L
45
/
' $!
0!
&
1@ 9", 1@ .,> UFO1 UP f
M M !0 Uª 9· +,- JO UEFO :1 M9#
r '/@ - I@ 6I d
%E= S£'C Q5 1
10 y8
UFO1 UP m ."#0
+,- D9 %'"F f'7= 70 '";@ 0 4
r>O UEFO S@ EF !I Q90 n' UEFO :1 !>0
%70 7@ -5 )z> 0 !G1 f#1 %'# UFV1
.:¨ HF R !FV1
7@
UFO1 P %'O %"E q +,- y
DzJW, i= (oz0L) y8 y# h Q5 z B K
1 L %A q
DzJA1 !7P %I8 b1 +,- .'7W0
%0= -7= - ; D) !'G0 UEF :1 !"#
([ ]7AI %'J~ 4 O y85 DL# )7'7h ¡
!I %R +,- o1 Dz, %/,0 %J# D) '0 EF
(.Dz !> W0) i= E7 ]9# EF (%,
-5 - y E= E7 U97
%71E %A q !
[ qz- 9I= UEFO 49 F) %71E %
:# HF D9,#= Uz0 %',"- '@@ .'E01 (UEFO
l UEFO d] 70 I 4 +,- % -¹1 U97'
^mG ® 'J UFO ; % q HI8
.)',- ©J« UEFO :1 !0 s9,E
r90E ^J +,- UFO1 UP 10 .,> !"#
UFO ,` 0 )z> "J
UFO1 UP %F
46
.UFO q %¨ % B1F I %'"F f'7=
$ @ UFO @ B !,7@ dJ
r> %'P
.%'"F D',"#
1#
#! 2
3# &
)R9@ ) )@ z B 70E BoSR o O 5 UP ?0#
'/@ %',-J r90E %#10 )z> 0 UP 9
dm'@0
D',"#, %(E1 6I D-"$ JO ! D',"#
%E= K .'7h +,- -E= !R DR<=
+,- SI@ %X> 7@ 9R o O 5 UP §#
%'m'@0
%IG %',-J - BSR9 B7'F B/X dN#@ %'E'] %'# f'7

.^1 !;/ !';/01 U 7P 0'
9 y O
B# .'7h - nW(P UFO1
UFO1 UP o O 5 UP :1 %I8 - nW(
U'7 r> %'P
%7(N= DoR D? y (@ yz>
%W~ %,' J9@ yz> B# : z o9RO %&'01
O .# :1 %P#0L1 7 ^X %9 D9,#",
^X 9J UFO1 yz> )7'7h Q5 +#EP M Z
UP .,N #@ l %'m'@0 - !70E !G1 o ¤ f'7
.o O 5
%-X d/J
D7 ''7@ 9J
!70E= Z oS$
!A 7@ 7 #1 ''7@ 9N> ?0#@ DzG= ! 7
Y` ,0k
DzG= ! 7 %-X oSR %,G",
Q5 9R 4 49@ #"J
D7 ''7@
47
3#1
%'(,E pv o/0> G - UF #
L5 JG0I 0 L r> %,G %,G= ! 9 4'O
%/E,J "~ f'7= 6,@ .'(N@ · !/P
%'"F f'7=1
p ]0P {5 +,- 7 d"F !' oN- UFO1
.D7 %JI
|« "I B1- f' B'PV0 ''70 49 4 ¢
n' D7 ''7@ 4 7 6& # ^ ¤
UFO 5
6 #1 49/F90 :p F Q5 4
T pV@ r J90= #= %J !I bE oR¹1 U97@
#= UFO1 :1 d7'7A Y/ " 7
.D7 ''70 %# %'"F
3 4

D",I Q5 %R §P5 z B ]F )E/P Q5 |W0 }7 4 ,#P
fV1 .,#0 "'J >¸ MP %R 8 dI ;F %#
:¬<,= 6 U7P 4 PF 6
UFO1
9E@ UFO1 %J7p 4 M :'+L
•
%#'(` )0R E EF !I .'(N0 0 %E=
.),"-
)'J F !I Uª n' :I )
$ •
( %9,# 49@ )F %JI 4 "I
%9,# U7 BF
. 9R9
48

B' j )m]0P 49@ 4 M :=MK+
•
n' j ]0 q :",0E= <8O 49 4
¦'5 ]0 q y5 0 'I 09
b'W; !G1 )7'(N@ 4 M :2"+
$ •
G0PI %E= 8( [ %'1¢5 ]0P Q5 M '
.%9,#= +,- §(= 7 ^X d-1 /0
A +,- M90« 9J :3+ NO /
$ •
%F .7W0 )P "I
= D9,#= À O
D',"# %WX 0$# !(F 9 D9,#=
.%'1EA
f'7 UF y> ¹1 U97 9J : @P+
•
!"- %&'1 D0 %(I9 !R #1 o5 R
h )7'(N@ %,' %#R %',"#1 U97 )P "I
%E=
.%E= %',> D0= ^ Uoz0
,N0 9J :BQ> % '+3 @R
$ •
UC¹1 )J .'7h !R JO UEFO :1 BP #@
:" z B @ %/ 4 #0 .,ª
d"F ´0P D',"-
.S ^
9J : S. T"3 U+
$ •
R Q5 B(R )# E o O 5 UP ¥ +,- !"#
O ;F :90E= +,- %E= K .'7W0
!"- E %#(00 UF 9R 4 "I .dm'@0L
U97P R F M p ''70 BR % %XJ # %E=
.)#;1
49

% V =#L B C1 W) 2X 7$ •
=1 N\ 93] *$3 ^ _" :"Z$ U[;" =$.
"`< a b_ S1 c dD G
e +,- 6,0 )P L5
D r5 y9F
f'
-E@ %'1$ FX 'J
)"- ^F9
%'"F %mA uV@ ® )'J BI9G ,# +7( ¦UFO1
D7 %JI +7(@
y"-¤ %(E1 6I .7 d@
UFO uV@ ® 6'G0 6G, z B j D'm'@0L
.:&"N KÒ %JI !#¢
hiB." :'f U+. `@3; g.3 eQ> 7 •
". T2L `< \F_
b'W; 6 D(p5 !R )P )971 !'I ;7

7P 4 >v +,- %mA 'J '7@ l '9 %,'9J
)P _0 PI
UFO1 e# 9
[ D87 D-S I d0 UFO1
L5 UFO1 b'WX .'(N@ !{ "0E L
'/=
.%&` 9O %JI 7E@ %W'W; D7 /
50
‫א
א‬

"$;A 5-
!; '
( $ ,1 I
!
#0 ! 5(- 7 #0 C-
>
5
,1 C!) ,1
! "&
,1 ,$! )* 2;! %
@ )
; )* ! ,1 9
!( ) ,I
.
@
:! " #$ %&
.,(
5 )*)
@ •
.
@ ! ) •
.
! B •
.) ' •
51
52
$
#
H,#R 70#P ^'~9 - - :71E :,;/ ph
y70Pz ! }7 Q5 _F UFO1 K U9/
~- !X9P
!;/
_0 %70 D9N> Q5
d,';/@ !G1 )/#01 "F M UFO1 UP /
!G '";@ - !;/ |W0
Z !;/
.UFO1 U U#
L ® d-15 9 UFO1 UP 4 IP
%(
dI T = 0 D9N> B90 U7P P }7 70#
DE= %JI :1 9 !G1 UFO1 U1 d0P

)0P qS'C )-15 +7(0 U S' HPI 7J
UJ .UFO1 1 %P#0L 7 M !"# Kz0>1
¢5 /01 )]- ! b"E d-15 UFO1
%'E'] 71 '701 %( l %'"F f'7=
9 US0L 6 !(F Z !;/ P l
M o( J90= UFO Q5 9# 9 L d/E,/ UFO1
.F %-X :#
J9@ "@ l %'"'0 %&' 9 UFO1 UP
-5 HF9 %-~5 4 R0· l %"= UFO
q :1 1 %'/'I %'-1 60E= y> 5 6',-

<0EP @9P Q5 !X90, N1 ¢ f'7= M UFO
_0 7P l #=1 B9j !I 49
@F
0 .UFO1 UP dS5 90 f' U- !'I
% %m'0 490 %/,0 YN1 ]0 f'7= !',h
53
= + ) U< C1 \+ 'j TK< % 1$
.
9jX
:,;/ 9R9= e# %7` !;/ !X9
NP / %# 9N 7P +,- U97@ l :71E
.!;/ K %#"0¥ JO q Uk n'
GFP
! 5
$
&
#
^'"$ U BW~ z B 8 UP M <0 4 ¢
U .'(N@ * r - (#0, ^'"m, B- B'7 !G
qJ
%I8 %G( 9= ] z B !'<0,J
)-
%'/'{9 %,' KO n' b~9 ,8 ]
#1 #GP
M _'[ ¡ 5 D' E= %NGPO
%G( 9= ] U r5 49@ 4 y
U
!/A 7# U9-O U-

%IG, M9 !/ 7-
f/P
q 70P U !","01 49/{9= ( -
,G1 D{ D 5 ] q 490
HF9
[ oSR _'[ 4 ©zP .)',- K#0= ¶
.>v %7 )P7J Q5 M F ),8 p U, M9R
%G( 9= U zB p¨ UFO1 UP ?0#
4 I0 ',-
D' E= KO U= 9~ n'
- !G1 B"]F ',- K#0 49 l U= q M _'[
q[ f- +,-
%'E- ]0P Q5 M F %E= J :1
UP %'# 0/ ;7@ M 39#@ #;
%"PO
54
e# B7@ B# ,'k 9
%N7 q +,- y
UFO1
4 )J75 ¡ D#'(= EF {9 ! %",0E= D== -
.J o- P$ M 7 %m'0P (
!G1 F kL 70 H(,` 0J #1
UFO1
%'P5 s 49@ ¦- |W' M "J
!R-
z
B 9` B0F 70 -5 Y0E F
70 -
.)0F qh %19#X I >V0 !G1 qh 49
%-m1 4 M9/- !G1 47J Q5 !I M
(E1 7# #X )P 4 70# O UFO1 UP
.;70
IP d !G1 / q Hh qGFP PI
UFO1 UP /0 ,NP ,#µ l %'0 7
:., d !8 )P +,-
zJ ., !G1 j z~ d !G 490 •
!G #
z B "J
)-z~ r5 ;FP !G !'k
+W~ !1
B' )-z~ ^, ¬F dE
E'7 h dJ

UFO1 6I .B'Á
( 4 f'7= U= q M _'[ K«
"0E@ M [ > od8 Q5 9« J - UFO1
.DE= )]0F !R
6I
y9N j B-z~ d !G 6,0 •
)1 U'7 M9@ 'F !I ."#0 r h dJ UFO1
r90E h 4 ',-
]9- 'F %E DF 5
z B
09,'I ! ]# _EA !;P 4VI ]9# !',h ."#0
55
r90E 49 L +,-
^90 D' !(F 9N7
.( 4 )'J B( ."#0
%N7P ( ^,~ !I 4 *
d !8 M Q5 PP 5 •
UP DP9 d q
)m0 !G1 r>V1 d0
UP Hh %9N= %'"F f'7= 70J
UFO1
; %,8) %1 %N7P B !I 6,0C
UFO1
(UFO qT S@ ¢ l %$I) % %N7P (%9,#=
. j ]9J K D DP9= q %JI 49@ 4
n' %TG0 %7N1 ¯ %' y8O %JI e- uV •
)'5 m y8O !8 M 9P S''C 6

UP 4V1 ¬<,0@ GF l %'0 / d S'= q
e# %7` n' 9 )P91 S'"0 UFO1
%7` B(-90E %9E1 f'7= 70 :1 sW0@ n'
) %W/X 7@ !I 60F 5 Q5 %RA 4 e#
.) e /@ dI
6,
! #0
U %- 9N> %pzp - %71E 7/ ph
d !G, %R" ~J 9 - N(0
UFO1
> HPI .UFO1 UP +,- %R" q 75
9 %7` %' y8O %JI 4 GFP l `7P
!G !',h yz> !G 9P h n'

%',"- !#R +,- %' y8¤ d]7,0 '90 - F
56
^ !#0, %TG (^1= !'N0E=I) %'-1 y8O ^ !#0
q :1 ´00L !70 !#R ¨ %'P" %'-(E y8O
.BE zB %JI y8O
4 UFO1 G o= %'( %W';J

B0/ e# %7` '9@ ?0#'J
BR % %N7 q 9(0
e# %7` '9@ uV
UFO1 * b'@/ B'
:i0 9W +,-
0@ UF d %'"F f'7= :%'"F f'7= e- '9@ .1
:"F :1 Y/I %N'E1 49@ B([ %'1E D',"- -
f/1 %P#0L %'"F f'7= e- '9@ §#
z B
q .7h n' U oSR %'([ %'1EA D',"#
70 %JI 4 '90 %m'0P .J f'7=
;F 0J yz>
%'"F f'7= U<0E@ %E=
DR o1 oF <0 %'/'I +,- 0#
S
.',- "0-L1
!'k
BC 3'7 +,- '90 _'[ y ]0 uV@
Y/ '7 +,- y O oS$ "0# » oSR %pzp )'J B7@
+,- Z "0# .1E U# iA U# D*5 :1
Kz0> ^ .1E iA :# :1 9" DL#
)<0E@ > '7 uV'J
n 'F ¡ l DP'(
90 M :/{9", %(E1 * y#"I %IG
S'I0 !9h o7 H0G@ Q5 f'7= U<0 %7`
q J +,- S'I0 Q5 m]0P UFO t# %"'F
.TE <0 %7` f'7=
57
-O f'7= '9@ +,- !"# '90 !>
(?J) (Â8 8 7@ 49 zJ
)@ 70, %
uV
¿EA Y/ D',"- +,- "0#@ f'7"I Bz
UFO :1 E +,- B"0# () 8 7@

6 §# e# %7` D( 70 7/ ¨
I0= o( +,- 7 U- / %7` H0G@
.d-9,
7@ UFO1 UP 490 :70 e- '9@ .2
s 49 70 q !',h +,- %'( ]0P %'"F
!',h )1 U97P ]0P )'5 !X90P +,- %'( DF

%/,0<= %'"F 70 %-9"m :#0E@ 4¹J 6
-9"m Uk l %W'W; D-(NPL D7 kL
.%E= K
70 !8 '";@ %/E,J e# %7` '9@ 4¹J 6
%7` yz> D7 ^X +,- : E= -E@
q 4 §# ¨
70 q J 70 :1 1 !'E@
J90= D9,#= ¨ F ?I !0E0 D7
D /0 M F
!17= .D9,#= q %'"F !'W0
%9/= [ 70 3#1 y5 Q5 3#(1 e# %7`
./ %(#X
o +,- 7@ %#1 SI@
e# '9@ %' +,- y
701 70 q %pzp (@ n' D#'(= n' %E
Dz= %W/X
r90W", d"F ¬<,
M90« L !'X/0 6 #1 uV@
%'10 DR00L
58
!G1 Kz0>L M '
7J !'X/0 +,- L5 ^1 70
e# %7` n' ,0<= 70 oN-5 Q5 d#'(` d]7,@
.!F B"0 %'
& !

D1 F HP '";0 - |W0P 4v =" }7 yVE
DI e# '9@ DI - U 9R @
UP '";@ 45" y97P )('* "¦d !G ^ )1G0 J
%',"- ."#0 ,R F 10I !;/ K 9
!G1 4- ^ !G1 :@J e- #1 Q5 '";0
7 !#¢ ¨
}7 y'> U 9X +,- >V1
.]J I
!;/ _91 BI P l %97= 6,@ '#P
%W %/X UFO1 UP '";@ f'
P +7(
BWRP BP 6 49 I I !"- 'J y97P
0 B- Bm %- B`9N> )7P UFO1
^ 0 1¹1 "'5 %J~ "T o0L %P#0L
UP '";01 §#P WJ 6 .U, %/'0E= %E=
+,- P-E@ l fO DoR 3#(1 US0L 9 UFO1
.UFO1 %WRP 5 .'7h
!(F -5 ',- l %# D9N %' I 6
S'¨ UP 9N0 % b]; 3#1 6 #1 IP '/01 o(
:('@01 -(@¹1 b;) UFO1
59

●
· = yVEP 4 ',-

U, %'PS'= ¬; (P 4 !(F
q Eµ ¦ %#F90= ]9/ d ¦UFO1 .'(N@ P

%#/= .7« d#/ U 49I B71 qPI 9N
:W01 %#/= Q5 y70PL ',- 4v R %- %", q
D#'(= '0 o %(F= UFO1 UP P" y97P 4VI
#~ 9N@ '0 %#10" y97P ."Q O %,= yz>
.!"0j > KI "Q O %,= yz> '0
U mA dE'] W0 !;/ d U %#/ #@
m ",J
U '";@ %,X9( 6I d
@9 f'7= S@ 70 - S 7'7W0 N<= ^J=
r90E U %/,@ S F M O
%<0E= %'"F
.DE= %/,0<= ] :1 qG0P q'7#@ )7"#@
( D#F90 % B'( ´0 U9/ #
UFO1 UP '/@ - y E= U97 4 b;J
U
+,- %'# %#/ o1 0 n' %' D0J +,- ^J= 'E7@
%E %([
+,- y '/0 n' ! %#/
7'J %','G0 '0 :/{9= %E 3/>
!',h (@ %R0 ^J UFO1 UP - y E=
70 3#1 -5 uV
0/ %','G0 '0
q :/{9= %E !',h %#/ .'7W0 %'"F f'7=
.1E !',W0 - %µP DF % 9N 49@ .%/,0
!',h %','G0 '0 {9= %E 3/> qµ1
.B',#J '0 3/> D7 q p
60

+,- _E L ! D'1¢L ^J= %VE ,0 ?0#
PF 91 ( ^J= q ½
4997 "I Uz
1 %',"#1 U97P 9N q
f'7P 'I f'7P y9
'#P) %#/= .,#0 "'J )'F !I ^J= :1 %'7N
F) %#/= .'7W0 qP · ()'F !I
:'7 (P 4VI )E'7P 4 ¢ y> § 'E7@ !"#1 U97P
.(%'# 0J !I > 'F y> 5 |zp
r90E :Eh PF P e0/ ¦)E'7P 4 ¢ +,- y
UFO1 UP %"] %#/"I :# ´0P5 > %'R0P5
'F P
z B y97J
´0P :# r90E +,- ¼/A
!I 0 f'7P
> !I %, !I %'R0P5
49 i01 .)1( +,- 0 9P
%,
6 _( 0 %'R0P) d 'F R90 9 %pzp
PW01 9N q ;P PS* F 49P i01 (0
.%'R0P 'F d 7= 0#/ .7· dI f'7P 4 ¢
,0ª 9J
UFO1 UP %~9J !G T %#/= q
!',W0 9N> #@ 6
7 ^X +,- M9N )PV1 o; ^
D',"- %JI %',> %' 9N> D7 D7',#0
.'7
K
*+ @ ; f G hk j1 S1 'K< *$+
mc lf 7Q C1
:B# n( %pz1 yE +,- %1R 0@
61
¦)'F 0 yz> (0) /F9 · 'I .1
¦<0 ¢ l f'7= .2
¦9; b'~90 R0· l %'"F @9 d .3
9J UFO1 UP ^J y O yE ?0#
9O d · )'J
,"- E 'I %IG ^F9 «
47P 4VI !"# - (NP >O # %P7= ¢ l
U# )1G= G %71E 9G UFV1 %'A UFO
45 :EJ= ¬k UF 7 U<0EP F
d~=
4VI NF :;0<= r %9(7 91 K#@ %- #
(% 85) %(,#= %'] Dm0= %'R0P %FN Ã,(@
z B y97P
.%'= %FN
PI
UFO1 d-1 oS$ 9 Z yE
> F I - 0 F §#@ %'"F f'7= 4 B71
%;) %P7 q +,- y %N'E1 %'1E D',"- oR¹1
d"F '7 ^~ z B 7J (:'00 G Y9E %E=
+,- S'I0 ^'N0EP n' :0;A :1 Y/ +,- ]F
_E U97P F %'R0P 'F .Y9E ¬; D0
%'R0P » $ %'R0P)] %'R0P 0 y#
.[(%7 %'R0P)/(%7
!G1 %',"# ? ´0« M yE 9J n yE
%'1E D',"- - 0@ UF" d %'"F @9J
(I
6,@ ¢5 ¡ f'7 'F 0 UF :1 %'7N
Y9E 0; 'F -
z B ]0 q +,- y
UFO
Y/ (%E= %;) (z B I Y9E m) :"F 49
62
(d"F @P 9
,';W0 Y9E %'= %X/) ! '1
%'R0P %FN 47P n' r9;7 %'R0P %FN 1 "F 9
B'~J d"F y :( i0 y $ Q5 ,X9@ %'= %X/ ^
- !C %'0 UFO 4 e/ %'"F @9 %' b'~90
: Y9 @9'(9 SR
"# !

()
()

2000 3700 2000 3300 1300 5000
5700 5700 6000 8300 1300 8000
8( '5 ,X9@ UF %pzp 4I

.1E y=
^;= %F` Q5 %J~1 ^;= %; Y9E m d '7
]S %FN) %'"F f'7 Q5 !X90 %IG DF .%'R0P
m0P (^;= %; » r9;7 ^;= %F` = ^;= %; -
%; » Y9E m) r? %'= %X/ 9 BR B'7
.(N d"F @P - (- >O @ 49'
(Y9E ^;=
%FN) XO %"'7 = %',"# %X/) d %'7N -F
?0#@ .(r? %'= %X/) (^;= %; - ]S %'R0P
Y9E @?> yz> uV@ %N'E1 %'7N -7 q
.^F9 +,- o1 Dz#0 3#1 '5 'P F
'E( !',W01
UP 4 / BR % %VE 00EP
.1E
%'1EA D',"# +,- M90« B0 B'"F BP f' UFO1
%m0= %'7N= D7 !"$ %S +,- M90« 5 7J
^k l D7 %-9"¥ 6 #1 9,0 %'"F ]0
63
.N= :1 10 (0-
d"F ''70 1
UFO1 S'C 9R UFO Q5 !X90 1 UFO
.!',W0 '7 %"P q[ -
UFO1 UP 4 -71 9N q US0L ',-
d"F '7) ! 49 4 ¢ 6
)@90j !I K
K Uª B<0 BW~ BJ ()'F 0 F d"F @P
.UFO1 UP
n 4 I0 P %'0 / Q5 y70PL !(F
:Ik< FoF p_ SB. () + % djB
.'F 0 8( UF .1
UFO q :1 yz> 0@ %'"F f'7 .2
.%/,0 %'1E D',"- U<01
f'7= :1 yz> '5 !X90P %'"F @9P .3
49 n' %'"F f'7= :1
UFO %'"F
%']; %'1EA D',"# U<01 :0A 6,@
.%/,0<=

●
)'F ¢ S'm01 "F P :071E :@9N C5 §#
l 70 r90E B(7@ .( 9"¥ !G
)0$# %'/'I
d i01 4 >v q M )R9 #@ l U - ;0
r m n' U +,- A )z> 0 l 9¶
.]/
!IG= %,G 4 D9,#= 5 %"P n( 4997
E/P %E= D9,#= @ r d D9,#= ;-
64
%', D9,#= (%66) 4 Q5 %F9p9= |O 3#1 G@ l
Q5 M @ D9,# 4 K #= . D9,# #@
] %/,@ HF R i01 D$#
D9,#= q @ 4 ^F9 )R00 ¡
(µ
+,- Ç, !G1 p %E= Ç, fJ@ D-X Q5 M
.DE= 9E@ 4 ¢ M 4 #0 o9R
[ )P UFO1 UP f 4 PI F
KÒ UFO1 = 1 L 4I 7J 6
UFO f'7= %JI o;¹1 U97 4 U .'(N@ - %9&E=
« 'J = « %'"F ]0 'F ¡ l
.!"# T U97' %' E
b];P 7J IP P¹J P %P = 1 P
@ - D-; !A UFO1 8 %-
:D9,#=
o5 4 §# :

U= oN-5 1 L %F " !G1 B',"- 49 dI 0
R 45
?I %J# 'J ) ?I %' U= q ) !C Q5
]0 f'7=) UFO q ´0« !F U"01 > ¬<8
!(F 0$# 0 ¨ _F HF R0« ) (D'7
:P¹J ?IO U"0L X
X !(F UFO q U<0 HF '@ y · :;9 <
.?IO U"0L
01 "E1 U97P P¹J
Q O 9N D#@ 45 :È$F
Z M) i0 U"0L X !"# Q90 4 +,- ( ,)
65
!"# "P dI :@9I= :@9N -¹1 (%'O n'
U"0L ; !70P F P ©L) .%F +,- %',-J !JV1
X HF '@ #@ !G1 UFO 9 ´0 45 n
.(Z U"0L
UC5 r? %'O X %/'{ +,- o71 :9q$F
qk (HF9 '@ #@ 5) 0F %'"F )@$# )@',"-
.70 %JI %F r90E %#R= B#R
U"0L X !# 0 o5 W* y :9$
0 r90E 3/ = UFO +,- q !"#1 ?IO

4 rP P¹J 6
.'F0 %#R= _'[ N e#0 P¹J
%pzp !I) M 7@ -5 UFO1 UP d""; +,-
70 49
= D9,#= 6,@ +,- M90« (z B 8
9# Kz0> M 9R ,N0
%P7= - %'9"- I
; - nW(, D9,#= 6,@ %$# %#R Q5 !';/01
.Kz0>L Y/
:/\ + C1 7q+
4
%= E D#'(= %#10= 7@ 4 e/
:% I G0 @#'(
%= r90E Q5 !; BR z B ;/ 49 :7 $
.I !;/ F
!F 49 %#R= e[O 7@ 9 :rq$ $
!F 49 F D#'(", d, 9"¾1 d/0 F Bz';/@
!'E0 7J % r90E= G 4V1 (Bz';/@ I) %'9"-
.%#R= %',"-
66
:#$ !" ! ●
S'"0= (= = S'C l D9N 9N q #@
9O 'E0 7J oR M %N,E M = -

U VI )',- PSI M d-1 O BFzNP
)'5 ,X9@ ^ %,9` %/F 1 L
UFO1
f'7=" :1 R 1 Q5 !X90 : j "]0P f'7"
]0 f'7= %JI ^ ^`70 !G1 '1 "'J "]0
J Kz0> ^) UFO1 UP 9R9= 70 %JI
U7@ %70 %'"F ]0P %'-15 f'7 +,- !;W (#J
.S'¨ % DJ~5 01 -
q p z1 9;7= b'~90 %';<8 %1µ IP
UP J 9,(0@ 4 !(F %'] 9", ^; d/J
/
"~ %N E U +,- E ´0P 4I
q UFO1
´0P5 > I 490 ^;= 4I n'

¶ %'PS'=
#
U9' yz> ,[O +,- B# 9N q !"#@
:i0I d"F 1 oR5 9R9= m 70L
U9' 6 ´0P ',> E UO %'R0P5 !;J ¡ .1

(´/_//´ /_ ) :z B e/
l D0= 3#( d9' sz0L DL# !;J ¡ .2
.o= o1 9F9 ! d9 !G1 'F
%/;= Dm0= +,- (%'P 9N) '0 75 ¡ .3
s .!(F #F90 ]0P Q5 !X90 (Q O 9N)
Dm0= 9P 3#1 - '0 q +,- (I pV@
. U9
67

^;", '/ F kL (E - I !;/ !',W01 "F .4
Dm0= 3#( %'R0P D9N 3#1 9R (E 4I
B# D/P 5 %/,0 /@ ]0 q ! Q5 M @
. U9
q DR00 +,- %"]F R %'R0P5 %N> -¹1 "F .5
)0(EP %','G0 '0 3/> Q5 D F %
.(8%)
4NI %"< %m0 D-N7 BI 4 U9,#=
%(I= %'"F ]0 q ! Q5 !X901 HF F DL;@L
BJ !G@ 5 !1
5 dE'] s¶ 4v HW(X l
' 3#(1
%' q %'"@ !R
b;P .,"-
9R9= %'"F "0 3#1 "¦9 " ! d-1 /0
.oI D(0>
:%&
' ( ●
!I .'p90 49 4 ¢ !4v .'p90" :y97 3#( !#
_9X +,- 0P" : y97P ".q>V@ ¢ L U 9N>
%9 9 UFO1 UP !gVJ
_9X +,- ·
9 y O
:7'p9@ 9R Q5 %³ )m0@ 6
VN s@
49 .U 9N> !I ^ uV M )- 0",@
!G1 >v !(F .'F0, z B j f' 9G [ B J .'p90
% E= %$ ¬<G1 .,#0 )P M J )P91 ;7P
HF
¢ l % 9N 9 Z .'p90 9N> .'7h -
IV0 %#R= 0@ n' U - : E= !(F ',- .'F0
:d, ¨
68
yE 0 4 ¢ n'
7J %'O D UFO %JI 9R .1
.F !I 9R ( -
]0 %'"F f'7= - 0@ l %'1EA DL #= .'p9@ .2
.%'"F
!I ]J .'p9@ 6I 70 e- %7` .'p9@ .3
.%7N q '0> (
.J 7'7h U 7@ 9R r90E= %#R= 1 .'p9@ .4
.7'p9@ T %N(@= UFO1 %#/ !I %Fz- %#R .5
.'p9@ )7'p9@ 0 r90E !F +,- 9; IV0 .6
.)1(
5 '5 !X90 Y` ^ 0(= %'"F @9 .'p9@ .7
.<0 %'/'I
(]0P f'7 D'F) UFO %JI ;@ %"]F ^~ .8
.UFO +,- ^ !'I
0
%#R= .'p90 Q O %,= 9N q #@
M90W0
D9N %'71 "I5 #1 %'P %,= '/@
©/ %',"- d ;- .'p90 4 IP .%/,0 !'X/@ +,-
%Fz# _WX +,- ¢ "I ."01 9N0 UP o1 D?
W0 )7'p9@ D O U# !G %['X UFO1 UP
D/,= 5 %"P n' %E= ^ 0 )1
.D ¶ [ %'/'{9 %,'
/*/ */ ) ●
:%z] %71E D9N '/01 4v ® 70 %['X HC
^F90 o O ¹I
70 %;;<0 9P %GF 0'
69
n' 7J ,0k
!;/ ',- .(N #'g
9~9 4"~ +,- 9N q U97P .[¬;<0 j
.UFO1 UP )'R90
UFO ^ %'E/ %,G= - nA1 _0 P1 F I

%Fz- U- 7@ H'F9@ o9 I 4I l
¡ +,- o1 6 !R .UFO qT %'"F 70 !(70E
:9 %#1 h ',- d(
4v ® )7'(N@
●
UFO J9@ ',- l (%$/E7) ¬<G T ;7P

%'"F ]0 f'7=1 uV@ l %'1EA D',"# '/@
Dz= oN-¹1 :~9/= ]0 GP - % E= %$
.]0 q B7J D7 X5

:
* /. -.' +, ! "# $%&' ()*
.02 0 "1
* ●
M Q5 '5 70 y5 ¢ l D$ d T §#P
',- l D$ d !(70E= K#
W01 49-
UP 9N@ J %#R %0 +,- y9;W, 0,
.UFO1
* ●
« .70 ]J '#0 BR % H'F90 %VE ?0#@
- " !G1 U 70 %JI X5 H'F9@ yE
70
D#'( 7@ 6'@V 4 '/= [ "J
%E= %NGP y"-
.1 6 !(F qS'µ +,- 7 [ 4S 8 8
%VE - M (^F90 !;J) _0 p F
.D7 ^X = H'F90
●
f 4" d7N= #1 oSRO > d
oSR · 4 %N7 q ',-
(%R9 n' ) UFO1
%"P -E@
%'# DR Q5 7J 5 0 F 70
q %' %J#= .%, %, %N7 q !#R BI @9'("
G- 49 ),(70E@ É 7@ Q5 6@P 6E/P !'k
%,=
.7J %W/X Q5 L5 ) ´0h L DW/X
+,- 9; ^F90P
%71E %#1O %,&O +,- D1R #1
:uv +,- M90h %,I
.70 ! ▪
.70 9",0E ▪
.y H'F9@ ▪
.70 D90j ▪
9;( (<=' >8# ? @ - 045 6* 78()
.D&E F,' 8C # AB
:- &
/%&
% !
+, ●
L U9' *" dm'@0L /0 o?> o?> y97
m %P'X
m %P';1 "F 5 L5 B[ m "
D0 +,- o1 !#0 9N01 .'(N0 K { B'@ §#@
".%'R> U %',> D0 q HPI o9 %E= ]
71
%90/ DF % J D7 9N0 '0 s@ ?0#
9N0 U- Q5 4'O [ M BR BN> B

® ),IÊ@ i01
S ^ U U 7@ Q5 M i01
+,- Y9/0' UFO1 U '9 !A

#@ l) %#R %0, b~ P1 !"#1 U'7 9
0
9N0 "0E DGF oR5 (9N0 )'R90
.U
%~ #= %'"F 70 %S UFO1 UP ?0#
UFO q D$# ]0P UF +,- %9N= %/,0 YN1

:;jv FoF 'j4 (s i tD u(
.''0 %#90 n' U ^J +,- Dz#@ oR5 .1

oR5 R 7@ .,> 1 O §#
1 L
:0A 0,I
9R9 7@ +,- Dz#@
UP f _0 9I= D9N1 US0L
.K .J90 UP "~ Dz#0 4" UFO1
4 R90= <8O !#0 9 B([ U97
4 ¢
',# dm'@0L /0 r90E
U !"- ^ª L ® )'R ( +,- !#@ !I M9N
!#0 .'p9@ @ ',-
%';<G ov o9¤
.)1(
%J~¹1 z
B 0 F
JV1 !#@ 4 70 +,- !#@ .2
y#= 70 ª B7(E j %#/ % f'7 UF
D #@ )'J %~ #= D9,#= I ¬',7@ ?I !G1
,` +,- o1 e# %7` B'@ !#0 !"G F
]J
72
.UFO1 UP "~ R90= %Fz# _WX
[¦® ¦'I ¦ Q5 ¦] n' %' !#@ .3
I "0L +,- U -E !R R K
.)0'9º )0P
%'/ 4" %' I %71 Dz#0 q ?0#@
%'/E q "0 %W'W; %R9 9· UFO1
m *+ 9TwK () 'x lf S) 7QB *3 B"]
9N> !I m 0/ U J 4 9 _9$
b;P ) U- !G1 ,(F 07= O 4¹J 6
)@9N>
:(E %J7p d %"]z Y` - nW(1 ^'"$
<8O ^ 70 ]J - "0E %'(PR D9 oR5 .1
%RA - D-"0R 7-
:<0E= %Fz# M
@ l 'J # I G !';/01 70 %GF=
.d,"# .'(N0 yz>
,0> "] )1 M o1 70 !(70E !I 9- .2
0 M !G1 9N q !#R !/ [d/'{9 q90E
. '/= .'(N@ %GF 0 ov 6,@ @
]0P U<0 0 n' %,G %#R", M -9 h .3
.U nh 9N@ :071E :0N7
(2) %&
' ( ●
%, !I 9N> !I .'p90, ´0W B71 PI "I
q .'p90 49
U- .'p9@ %',"#1 U97P U
.'p9@ Q5 %J~5 Q O .'p90 %,= z
B 8 %'P %# %,=
:d, %#R
73
¦'I ¦ Q5 ¦) d7N= ^1= %, UC5 IV0 .1
.= KÒ %JI _#'0 9~ IV0 (¦®
%@ 9R "@ l DoR o/I %z IV0 .2
.%E= %&'( ]z 0¨ !G1 %#R
D9N<, 7'(N@ op q/P 9 d7'7A .'p90 4 IP
!G1 D9N q P'/0 %#R %VE L5 f' .'p90 4
B([ l) .'p90 ! ^mG0P dI
1 L .b'WX
.'p90, HF ),0EP 4 I0P 4
(0 !,= (;
3#1 zX ","W0 (I BR o- J9 %#R=
.U 9;7 oN>O

M9F UP R0P 49 l D9N - .( "'J ph
UFO1 .,#0@ %71E D9N %JI
UFO1 bRP
UP m BR B ~ 6 !I ?0#
90j 70
.UFO1
UFO1 U1 'h %'R> !9- s +7(@
0/E,J E/P %IG %J71 .,#0@ O G1 SR9P I
D9N> 9 %'0 9O b~ F k ¢ .
:!;/ B7(E PI l UFO1 UP '";@
: 2
% 3 1
¢ !J
UFO1 UP .'(N@ !8 O §#
UP %#10 D' E= i90 !I EF ¬';k ',-
¦ JO :1 UFO1 %J7p G1 o/0IL U
UFO1
74
%#10 M J !G1
9I= U DoR5 U<0
.%- % 5
9 mWI %/,0 9 Q5 U !8 %'/'I '0> 9#
UFO U<0 Q5 'J %RA r90E %G( %'= %IG
.7 ^X
%,70E 9I UFO1 %#10= J ¬';k %
:uvI %- D/X J9@ 1 zJ
UFO ^ !#0 BS'"0 B-( 9 49 4 .1

.q'0> !(F 1 oI, D(0> U<01 b;P
. 1¹1 UFO ^ !#0 +,- F E7 J %JI 49 4 .2
%([ 1= ?; MW0 1 JO %JI +,W0 4 .3
.'0 A
yz> ,#0 +,- %#E 71 E7 J %JI ^0"0 4 .4
.%'@ o7
:( % 4 )

1
%'J~5 D"0 B([ UFO1 UP ,N0
%E= "0E@ F
)JO )7'7h U 4" %E=
90@ .UFO1 m %( o9R J90 y¥ I
UP +,- R 'R99@ y> 5 :1 DL¾ q
; 6I J90= D9,#= 9R r90E ^J UFO1
.0 '{90, r>
UFO1 UP 4 / % %9,# I@ ',-
(I ]9#1 uV B([ )
%"<~ ; ,N0 L
."0E 6 O
75
:
5
6& + 4 7, %
5
2
1
:d, h Q5 UFO1 UP ´0«
.)'J :IG= »
.:IG= +,- %-9= D' E= »
.:IG= :1 !"# .'E@ %7` b'~9@ »
%W~ %,' +,- 9; Q5 %71E |z 7 M @
y9 JO :1 D-S o5 Q5 1 M @
U"0L %G( 9= EF +,- 4 rP
D(R9 D' E=
^ 0 9N0 n' UFO1 UP :IG=1
^J= .'7h " !G1 %G( 9= 5 %IG %/E,J
.UFO1 9R=
:89&
6 2
1
#P 4 V@ UFO1 UP %' 9N> d
y"0L B7(E 9I= D9N f' dR> !#I
"'J %E= %7(N= r>O } ( 3#1 ^ ~#@
.D9,#= 5 ¬ª
.,#0 "'J UFO1 UP ´0· P qIP
:d, Q5 D9,#= ;
.U !> F !I ; 9~ »
.U %<0E= UFO %F 4"~ »
.F !I 9 W01 H'F90 %J# »
Dm0 Dz> %GF z> 0 l D97 %J# »
.UFO1 UP
76
UP '";@ - (0-L :#1 !9# q > 1 L
L5 %,E,E0= D9N R 5 U- [ UFO1
.UFO1 m %' #@
:
9
.,#0@ !IG UFO1 UP ,"- op )R9P F .1
7@ +,- "0-L1 b;P .6 70 X5 H'F901
_0 !70E !;J 0GF 00 l ^F90
UP !"- !8 UC5 ^F90 U<0 E n'
.UFO1
.'(N0
'N<0) D9N> %pzp UP M '";@ 490 .2
op |z D9N q !{ Hh d= ',- 6 (''70
.UFO1 U #X

y O 9 BR9 }7 MSS- 6 U7P
!;/ U0>
(Model) ´9" P S
UFO1 ¬ª "'J )-9P
j %W~ D9N> E " !G1 %# 9N1
.UFO1 ^JP bRP UP .'7h 9·
f %, d %" %,= i0 ´9" ^ª
9N> !I ',- 6
Z !;/ PI l UFO1
%S0, b(;0 ,#@ fO +,- ~#1 U97P 4 /P
.fO qT
77
& 6 < :;
E %'E'] D9N> fÁ UFO1 .'(N@
:uv ´9"
, ()
&&

! + ' *

'
-
+
#
&
# $%
' /, "*

0&
1 %

,2
:

. •

. •

.

•
.! " •
'h UFO1 f 4 .1E ´9" ©zP

!9#1 pV0, e# D9N q y¥ 4
D9N %J1
9= 5 U %'PS'"I !;/ p 87P ¡ %/,0
.%G(
78
4V1 I0 ^ %71E != !';/0 !70P 4v
fV1 US0L Q5 G D9N1 '¶ 7= !'N0E=
:UFO1
:)1 4 U §(@ %, .1
8 79 *
%
3 -
!3 567 0&
%
!'
33 '4
:)@(,N0 J9@ d"F 'N<0 %, .2

'4 *
'4 *

*
* 0& * 0& 0+*

0!

0&
-
*
8 74
+

$3
79
:U70= d"F !',W0 ]0 !8 %, .3
+
"
'9 /, "*

' 1&, $
+
'4 $
'
> ' <! *

+

=4
0'
!
()
?* !

0'
!
:8)=
r90E .'7h _FOJ _FO OJ O ( .(NP •
.3/<= 0
.R %'"F ]0P f'7 ¢5 d"F 01L !"G •
80
: (@ D9,#= !7P %',"- 5 %, .4
B$) #
$@
0
0'
( ,
(8 B/
B$ /
)- ! 6D
&
!
()
?* !
!
0'
0

3 7

:.'(N0 o(1 F +,- y9;A .5
$ !
E +
* <,
E 8 74 E
% /,
8 74 - &&
1 +

0&

81

`( |4> '+ u{ 2) " :wD zy gD 7 •
".}(d+ '1 p_ y)< 9a 7~
3#(
BI - /F9@ %97= %7'7A 5
(J . 9~9= ,X d P
9~9= - BR '#1
]01 4'@ K :Eh D#F90 f- ^'N0EP
UFO1
.:EJ= +,- Y9/0 G(= %'1¢
4\ *+Q ;" :+$ $D c $ $K 7$ •
@. v @ f@ ^ S |B S$1 $-
".
I ,#m'J
qJ S/h E0( }7 !#µ %97
D" :'7#@ B'- UFO1 3J = y97P qz-
."!%N'E1 ]/I '/ 5
82
‫א אא‬

!
"# $ $%&% $% $% $# ' ( )
* + , -

. %& %
* 3(Performance Management System) 0
/
0 4% 567 %) $ $8# &%
9$ :) % ; <$<6 567 %)
$ ; "# %6
%:
7$) * 5
6$ .$:$
=4% 5*)
&!%
( $#!
/ ) 0!
/ $
6
. * $
$6# ?
) + @ % 0
/
:$ =! "# ! * - ;$
.0
/ %% •
.(Balanced scorecard) < % BC ; •
.0
D $!$ •
.0
/ =

7 =! •
.0
/

$ 9
! •
83
84
! "

n( B'(EP BR B9/ o O 5 U9/ #
l DoR iA ^~9 :1 1 0
o O 5 yz>
BN(@ %, B- o O U9/ ?0#
%',-/ 9N0 k ¢
> o - ,0ª {9= o VJ
)] - |W0P M 9~9=1
.Em, d]S'/ o O - 6I D#'(= EF o - ´0P5
'/@ %',"- d U- !G1 o %",I 4 +,- ./0P 4 P
.'7h - B'- o O 49 %'# %J# U<01 bRP !G1
U9/ 4J i01
49EJ= ) "- S'¨ ^] !G1 %"
] {9= (0- zJ
%'R0P ]01 B"] .,#0 o O
.'01 )] V1 U97 /I !-J {9 )P %'- %'R0P5 4 yGPL
"0 9 o O 5 )7@ od8 4¹J 6
X 49@ 4 5 z B G 49@ 4 f' 6 O 4V1 PI@
o O 5 7@ %E 45
r> (#1
'/ ]0P
^ 0 ]0 .'7h 9· )R90 +,- -E@ UEFO %JI
BR d( .J .'7h +,- -E %E= %'m'@05
y9W0 +,- P-E@ BR %" %,' o O 5 4 ´00
.%',-/ +,- S'I0 Q5 yGPL +,- S'I0
"0E= D0 ^ o O ¹1 DE= U"0 7
A %EJ= ! %(#X R Dh 0m'0P HPI l
.D7 1- D"0L Y9O 0/P ^ S0=
¬<8 !I +,- 4 / %7'7 Q5 %(#; o9RO q D
) _9,N 9 !"#1 U97 4 %E= od8 !I +,-
." N<= %',-/ o O1 %'m'@0 K .'7W0 %',-/1
85
49@ n' %',-/ +,- ?I S'I@ Q5 ^~9 r
.'7W0 b'WX 9· +,- %7£(N ',"- %E= %"P %JI
.'7W0 L5 4 s # ,J
%(= %#F90= ]0 KO
LB %IG * !R % ]0 6,@
'R o V1 !"#@ %E= 4 y97 ^'N0EP
.'7h -
.(Organization is really performing well)
y- o V1 !"# %',-/ U9/ yS0> 0
%7'7A
7J 9;7 ,# °`> !G1 4'O 3#1 DE= !>
4 9 )1 !"#P )",#P 4 ¢
7J :/{9= %',-J +,-
!I %E= !"G0 M / r90E= m0@ o O 5
^G= Dm0= 6I %7(N= ? %"P D',"- UEF
.%E=1 .,#0 od8 !I
:< C1 T _ l . 3 G@. *+ /\ + C1 T

"
!
#$ %& '()*+ ,-. /01,$
2$ 03 456 7 ,-. 8 903 ! :;#
".,-. <
5 UP - nW, !70P
o O 5 U9/ 1#'0 #1
- (- 9 (Performance Management System) o O
o O 5 K .'7W0 (Systematic) %'P %'m %7`

+,- %E= o 'F :1 !0 +,- U !"# n'
P %R %E= !> (UEFO/M /) D90E= %JI
K .'7h !R "0E= 9N0 +,- S'I0 .,N@
.%'m'@0 %E=
86

o ¤ f'7 ´0P5 9 o O 5 UP @P 49
'I b~9@ %'"F D8 - (- f'7= q 49@ n'
q o O f'7 .%E= K .'7h +,- !"# 0
D#'(=I %E= !"- 9$ %(E1 BR BR 49
T LQ+ :o ¤ %RA f'7= q +"E@
Bz
S@ d KPI's ;0>1 )',- K#0 0 d GBX
.(Key Performance Indicators) Q5
!"# o9R G %EJ= o9R 4 B71 ,F "I
+,- "0#= R 9P 9{ Q5 D
(Knowledge-Based Organization) D9,#= %J#= %N91
D D9,#= J9@ +,- DF SI@ 4 ¢ n'
f'7 HW(X y9W0 ^
%'J (I D'"1 9$
6,0C L O ',# D90E= BR % ~ %'E'] o O
f'7= +7(@
D9,#= %JI +,- z`z HF9
%N7 q
r>O D90E= BR %" o ¤ %#
¢ UFO1 UP 4 B71 qPI ^ d70,@
49 4 ¢ (y9"G) % D90E= ^'g Uª 4
.BR9
U9-O I D@ o O 5 %',"- D8 F
%'EJ0 9~ (E1 (U"0L S'I0 n' ) >O
¬'<,@
B '7#0 S0 !1 7#= !"# %&'1 %('
:i0 y $1 D'0 q
87

(Value-based)

! " #
! $%& #
'* + $"* ,
'* + $"*
" (Standards) -
(Balanced scorecard) # $%

8 (Balanced scorecard) %P90= ]0 %FN1 %7`
!G1 o ¤ '7 I (0- 'J 0
o O ''7@ Y`
D',"-
%') { - o O !',h 0 n'
!;/
%'P {= q +7(@ .(,#0 9"
]1S
!"# !>
d71 .7J U- !G1 '1 "'J 1 .,> 0 %,;/ %9R
q9N@ ¡ n' F HF Q5 !G T %7N q !"#
(Financial) %'= f'7= :1 8( 1 +,- M9N'
.(Operational) %','G0 f'7=
4 J %1 HPI F
(BSC) S1 %7N q Q5 S
%I8 T U97@ l %NGPO U= HPI 5 ''7@ !"#1 U97@
!G1 -E@ d
%IG, %'m'@0 KO ^ %7J90 %90
7 . JO o ]0I %'= ]0 [ ]0P +,- S'I0 +,- (I
4(I D1 +,- 1992 U- y O %7N q 9{ 4I
4 +,- X %7N q J 9j HPI
49@9P 'J
%E= 9N0 %'m'@05 P 1 L )P
%'JI [ %'= f'7=
.9N0 ]1S D',"# +,- S'I0 U<01
88
) y O oS$ 4 n'
!',#@ '7G1 %7N q %'"E0
D'" +,- U97@ l o O f'7 Q5 S "]0 %FN1" 9
*+ i () \i [+ jf TK :
%'"F
:W + 9[+ 9+ d?
.O %,9` KO O ;F KO •
.%'= [ f'7= %'= f'7= •
.%',(70E= D8= >V0= D8= •
.%'R %',-/ o O ^ %',> %',-/ o O •
1 U97P 4" :',- 07@ 5 971 %7N q ¬<,P
E'7 ^;1 U97P { %#1 yz> %E= Q5
G1 U97 ."{= qT .,#0 "'J ,',h D9,#= ^g
:i0 +,- -z` #1 %JI {= q
#$

!
"

89
:(learning and growth)

%'J7 DR90 ^X :/{9= @ 9= !"G
+,- +/ª L
E/P %E= J¤ 9N01 %7,#0= %E=
"0E 4 !#R "0E= dR990 9N0 4 ^'"$
¢ 6 .)9 D0 ¥ !R {9= 9N@
9· ',#0 0 %'PS' )'R9@ 0 n' D'7 U<0
4"~ 4 B"] I0 ',-
?IO ]/1 uV@ l .`=
+,- %"]7 D"", * MO d O 9" ,#0 "0
.%J#=
9 ,#0 4 Q5 (49@9P 4(I) %7N q 0( G
:1= :R9=I r> B9 !"G 9J
@ I
6I 0R - >¸ -E= J90 %IG !>
B U9/= !"G .:/{9= :1 !X90 %',"- !'E0
.(o O %'- !"# %"P) 1 %J #= %'R990 !]9
¢ 'I :yE N 9= 4 y97 6
.'7h !R 0k 9N0@ 4 ¢ 'I %E= ,#0@ 4
:i0 y $ %,O 9= +,- IP ¦J

! % &

$

. . /0 1. 2 & -/%
%80 34 5 ./ */ /
* / - & / -/% &
90
:(Business Process Perspective)

n'
%',> %E= D',"- +,- 9= SI
%"]7 f'7= yz> ,"- %'/'I %J# o= ^'N0E
f'7= q oGP5 0 4 d(
9= +,-
%P#0L U- ,'/@ ^ D',"# qT %J# IO <8O
.7'(N@ F - %'R DG0L1
l D',"# d :y N1 9= U97
i01
45 %7'7A ¦"0E= 491S o~5 ?IO 49 !G@
!R D',"# 6,@ +,- S'I0, .,N 9 yE
:%,O 3#1 d, "'J S'"0
% &

/ $& 7-/% & -/% 5
8 ""9 - 5 & / ./ 2"0 5 9: & ;9
:(Customer Perspective)

1 L )P +,- ^"µ %A % D/E,/ ^'g @
% #=J
4I !"- M )'~ 491S +,- S'I0
§# ¨
6EJ= !70'
491S 6- e BR %N'E1
.%'~ %'A %'= s# 4 [ !(70E= E> 1
9X (@ 'I :9 BW~ LB 9= N
]1S %> 9R r 9 ¦]1 P %E=
%'([ 4 IP
%~0/= %'= KO .'7W0 :J0E=
'/ yz> %E= - ~ 49( U- !G1 ]1S
.%/,0 %',-/ 9$ HF9I
91
:(Financial Perspective)

¬,<0, DoR %P90= ]0 %FN1 %7` 4 [
J0- +,- H71 L5
/0 +,- %'= N'
B"]
%'= UFO 70 9R 1 d-9~9=
%71 {= %'71 i= 9=1 U"0L :1 490 ©/ N@
.I
P %R (@ 'I 9 B' LB i= 9= N
l %'= KO d i= %IG ^~ - "0E=
+,- %7'7A %'= KO q "0#@ ¦7'7h 49([
:%IG T C l %,=
SI 9" +,- S'I0 49
%,= q :j v+ •
.D#'(= !>
0
1O .'7h K 49 n' :j; v+ •
%"'7
(ROE) %"'7 +,- ]#I f'7 U<0
.(Economic valued added EVA) %J= % ;0FL
J9@ 4"~ 'J K 49 n' : # E v$+ •
.y= U<0 Q5 %RA 3/> (I %9'
%FN1 o1 %',"- - 4v |W0P %#1O {= 1#'0 #1
%7N q %,' o( I Y` s 4 [
%P 9= ]0
<0 IO d D9N> ^1 W01 F 49@9P 4(I 4J
:%/,0<= DIG DE= :1
+,- o( !/) D90E= h 0 n' :U 3) @ @ .1
o O %#10 ',- '7 .'(N@ 0 l (dm'@0L r90E=
.z>
92
%#1 %pzp h 0 n' :P.
I@) @ @ .2
.K ! f'7= h ^
9 ! %'m'@05 K
%7,#0= f'7= h T 0 :P.
c > $? .3
%E= K .'7W0 %19,N= ¶ o O # V1
.%'m'@0
%1 1 b~9= 1 0 'J :/\i (" i? .4
(KO) %#F90= ]0 1 0 n'
%7N q 8
%JI :1 1 D9,#", UP oGP5 0
f'7= ^
.{= %JI f'7=
5 %, %"= %7N q - G F
9N k %7N q _#'0L B'J B~- %',-/ o O
sJ
'/0 6R9@ !IG % 9R -
'/@ Q O
%P90= ]0 %FN1 %7N %',"# D9N1 .,#0@ I ^R
..'(N0 +,- s-E0

yz> DE= o O UP oGP5 %',"- 0@
:D90E |zp +,- .'(N0
:dD@)< ,-. P.
T4_ .1
B'EJ@ B* m]0P "@ l %'E'] .`= h .
.%E", LB #J
¬';k 0 'J (KPI) %'E'] o O D8 h ._
X- ;- ! !FO +,- dE'] o 8
.%IG * %'E'] .`=
93
:d j _ .2
q ]0P D',"# Dz>= 'F 9N q 0
(Processes) D',"# h 1 L
9N q d/J D',"#
q E7@ !I ]0P h
%E= !> 9R9=
::'E'] :78 Q5 9N
%P9= %NGPO %JI %(F 0@ n' :D',"# 'F .
.'J 9N0 +,- nA D',"#,
%JI ]01 7@ -5 0 n' :D',"# ]0P 'F ._
´0P5 !R R0· l 9=1 W0 !R D',"#
.D',"# ]0P 9N@ !R )R0· 6I
:#
: _ T S. .3
o O 5 :N10 ;- +,- M90h 9N> d
JO 5 J90= D9,#= +,- "0#@ %'P %'m %7N1
- (- d
o O ''7@ 9 Z ;#
"0E !G1
JO ''7@ 0 z> l f'7= ^X 'J 0 l %',"#
.*5 r 'F D',"#

5 U1 .,#0@ % D9,# %pzp 9~9= PF

%'E'] o O D8 D(,N0 i90 +,- d o O
:'$ o O f'7 D/X Bp
'$ o O f'7 X-
:(KPI)

.%'# KV1 N1 0
%'m'@0 yz> ³GP5 0 •
94
./ %, 9~91 j •
.%7'F %#R %@ D B' j •
^X %',"- UC5 !R %# %#R %@ oN-5 ^'N0E@ •
.7
yz> ¬<8 !(F R0P5 <0 %'P5 •
.>v ^ 4 #0
. j K D •
.D9,#", j ; 6I _EW, %W~ % # •
.)'F ¡ = %71N %W'WX %7'F D9,# 7@ •
: !

"#
9 G '$ 49# 4 n'
(Title) 49# •
.)0' ; 9 '7=
.'7= ^~ ¡ = « M
K •
.%',"# KO '7= :1 %Fz# •
:1 %Fz# yz> ''70 0 n'
'7 ! K •
.'7= K
.'7= _E z> 0 l %'1EA % #= •
.%'S D0/ '7 D - h •
.D'7 q X5 - y E= h •
.'7 ! D9,#= ; h •
.D9,#= J901 4997 <8O h •
.'7 !I ]0P +,- @0 4 ¢ •
.%'W'~9@ D7',#@ Dz •
95
:% $"
!"- %'/'I ''7@ !R ',- "0-z %( %7` ?0#@ •
.%'m'@0
.m .'7W0 9 = :/{9= q(0P _R •
M !"# 'F 7J f' * r90E '71 b"E@ 4 •
.B'] q'/@ 0
.%IG o- :1 !X90, 9 % oN-5 •
9I= '7 D90E ! %z X# +,- M9N@ •
.B71
.D9,#= %F .7W0 •

UP ^X +,- !"#1 U97 !I y1 yE !G
n( h %,& |zp ¦= 'I U<0E "J
o O 5
+,- %1R 9P
%7'7A %1R Q5 !X90 4 )',-
:UFO1 U9/= '(@ "J yz> yE
::-9P Q5 o O f'7 E7@
0 %#]G d
(Standards)

f'7= q Ê0 L n'
-9P Kz0>1 D',"# %J
0 f'7= q ¢5
Yz` +,- _0I
!',W0 0I 3#1 *
i= o O '7 z B "J %;0<=
5 f'7= 3#1 *
"0L +,- ]#I i=
* 6I
%(¶ 4 S<= ¹1 %;0<= 0 4 S<=
oS$ 4 M .:/{9= o 'F %'/'I %G( 9= 0I
96
!,· )E'7P 4 ¢ M h ,N0 ,"- y O
6 #1 nW(J
)E'7P 4 P ¨ J ·
)@o/I
.%<0E= %'#= f'7= %;0<= ;= ^R=
f'7= Ph #1 uV@ 4 ¢ n'
o ¤ 0( f'7 »
f'7= :1 1 +,- f'7= q -E@ n' %'#=
!"- h f'7 uV { Kz0>1 %'#=
q 49@ 4 !/=
%'m'@0 %(E1 %E=
.%N'E1 D1E DL # +,- %'( f'7=
&
!" #" $%
:1 BFJ R L
DF yz> :y97 }7 yoE0
- !;/ )@o71 H"F UFO1 - q9CI
¦ UP " +,- (0- 0 L ",J o O 5 UP
7,NP :y97P P
BR b'WX y³E0 45 %7'7A
UFO1 ^ o O 5 UP %J# +,- PX5
UFO1 UP ^X !"# %,X9= # GI h

BP qX5 :1 S''"0 +,- B F = !#µ %J#= q 4O
:1 Y/ PP %R G1 U97 .o O BP UFO1
.!;/ ',- J#@ l o O 5 %7'7 BFzNP :
« %E= %'m'@0 ),',h o O 5 UP (
Y/ "

%'m'@0 q .'7h e % KO
SI@ UFO1 4O
UFO1 LB 9º !F o O ¹J
!',h DX U D?I %#/ ) )'F !I 'F +,-
; F Q5 #J F od8 !I - nW( D'7 6,@
97
od8 '71 B7(E U97@ o O 5 4 : .%E= %W,;
.Z Y/ 9 '0 9N01 )0#10
j

'/0 %,' 9 : :1 qP M n Y/
r90E= ¬0ª B"] ',# (@ o O ¹J
"'1
)m]0P !',h )'R9@ - y E= 9 49
o O ¹1
%JI G0 ) ',# 71 UFO1 UP (
9N0 J - nW(, UEFO %JI :1 % D90E=
.'J M¢ "- 9X oN-5 %E=
"0#@ n'
%<0E= UFO %P ^1 Y/ uV

UFO1
7J %'7'7A UFO .]7A +,- o O 5
',- "0-L oSmI ^F90 %"P _#'0 +,- F dJ
5 4 "I .%E= !(70E '0 D7 k !',W0
9N> 01L # "'J %',70 f'7= +,- "0#@ - o O
.UFO1 UP ^X D9N> %'E']
dN#P L P IP
M9$ f Y/ IP 4 !(F
BR zJ >v +,- : MO %',J %P7= q
.%E= +;FO ]/ !R "'1 "'J !0 1 L
!I %/E,J 4 n' f Y/ b'~90 %( Q5 9#P
!I ^X -F .,N UFO1 y O
:
UFO d yE 49' d"F +,- (NP F
F 49 ¦%'7 %,G= q ¬k l J90=
+,- U97@ o O 5 %/E,J 4 : d"F +,- ]F
m b'@/ %#10 yz> %'m'@0 %E= K .'7h
.KO 6,@ .'7h
98
‫א
א‬

! " # $ %& !'" (& )

+
* (
, "
- . /& 0! " (& 12$ ,
/& (4 5 ",
" (
2$ "3 -
/& " " 6
" "
""
,
"
7- / 7" .(
72 538
( " : 2$ "$ "& " ;
(4 (; 72 "& %,
, 5 (
.%< / 6"6!, ( (& = #
:" %& , 2$ >6"
./& •
./& (4 •
./& (4 @,
•
./& "A# @6 •
./& B"" •
! •
99
100
(Forecasting) !%
9
]0 j [ K { 7@ %',"- 9 ^F90 45
l ^F90 %",I %'9"- I (0
(0 U9/= F
"I ^F90 %',"- 4 I1 $ . 10I <0EP
i01
h HE' 7@ %',"- d .1E #0 PI
^F90 :,0G= K ^F9 :1 )'1 YJ +,- ^F90 M9N'
#1 %GF U97 %/,0 D'7@ yz> Y/ !',7@ 9
Y/ T (E0 E B'1¢5 B ^F90 #, F
!;/
.%71 ^F9@ ]0P +,- o1 ~ O 9N0 DF k %',"- -
'J %<0E= D9,#= %#'(` n' ^F90 %',"- ,0k
z
B » %' !z D D9,# U<0E@ 7J
!"# 9P E
- 31 %#N70 D9,# »%#1O y9;/ E D#'(
O %,9` D9,#= q 49@ F
j odG1 .,#0@ S
!G 4 'IV0 ',- .3#( #(1 9 - %Fz- y 0@
^1N D D9,#= 9 ^F90 %"P D9,#= q B-9'8 IO
.!;/ p z
B ';/@ I !G1 87P 0' l §S
±9,1 ^F90P
y= !'( +,- BI #"EP l ^F90 %,
Q5 2008 U# % %'º %'P O %,"= §`9 -
%m'0P ^F90 uV
`9 49', ;P :z %EÁ
DL D'J9 '9= y# ! %71 D9E D9,#
%N'E1 %'1E D',"# D9,#= q >5 YzN ´ S
%1m0L1 %9A U97@
#F9@ 9 B"F @ 49' 7#
101
D'/G0E= =I %'J~5 %- .J= 'N<0 n' F
.`9= ' !'E@ !R 9G
y ^F90 ^ !#0 y1 Nk F l %,&O
´0«
%7'7A "¦'N<0 ^F90 :1 %Fz# " );<,
'1 .,#0 ^F90J
:9/= !I %7'7 J Q5 7J _9$
)',- 49 4 ¢ 'N<0 .,#0 "'1
!(70E= 49'
%',"- %( 49 4 d#'(N ^~9 4¹J 6 .!(70E=
l .]7A D9,#= I 'J %N> - 0 l 'N<0
- 0@ ^F9@ %',"- Dz>"I <0 0 4 ¢
45 %E= %IG +,-
i01
%N q D#F90
9N@ R N> ^~91 U97@ 4 ^F90 ]0P (m#@
.%E", % 9R= ^F90 ]01 uV@ d %'A %N
D'70 n' 90@ ^F90 D',"- 4 I1 $
7J ? U<0E@ Y` %0 %'~ Y` sJ

%<0E=
7J UFO1 UP F "'1 ´S
G@ n'
!F %/,@ ' )1 S'"0@ = %'"F ^F90 %"P
^F90 %7NI ^F90, d"F [ 9 4 Q5 D %JI
n' B/, 49 (Judgmental Method) UO X¹1
o9V1 7 pV0 e#0@ "I
7 d#PX o? J9@
. / r90E +,- M '· %';<8
+,- P-E@ l '9 %'"F '7 %7` ^F90 %',"- #@
^X .(E %',J 'N# ¨
UFO yz> !(70E= %³
B# B8 U9/= / 6
!J !(70E= !#µ DF
.UFO1 * !"= q ( )0'V1 .', !;/
102
!%
7@ @ l %,' 6,@ 9 ^F90 UP 971 9;7= 45

D'm %/,0 e[O %/,0<= UEFO ^F90 ]0P
!G@ %- 9Na US0 ),I 6 «
%/,0 %'1E
UP !> ^F90 %',"- 4 'P .^F90, 7@ M f
!1 US0, 4 ^F90, UP M +,- 4 §#@ UFO1
'";@ D9Na 6I UFO1 UP %'O D/;
.'(N0, %,17 UFO1 '";@ D9N> 9I= U
.^F90 UP
971 );'<,@ BW~ ^F90 UP K ?0#
.1 HF %'# %'"F ]0P +,- M90h 7@ -5 %',"-"
+,- 7 dN# ¨
)'J ',- y9;A l HF9,
KG0 %',J +,- y9;A ( HF DF ^X
-5 %',"- 7J §# L 4 B#'g ",#1 ' ".!(70E=
D0/ )<0 0 F
%',(70E %' D0/ 70
%'"F 7@ P -5 :1 y9h K 3#1 4 L5
%'
^ M i= G Yz[¹1 K# ! D0/ 6,01 %7,#0
q>V0 BP DE= !> D#'( 7@ 3#1 -5
.4'O 3#1
1 UF F }7 4 4 IV0 ·
.( yz>
d",- ^F9@ UP !'#/@ ,';h ^F90= ]9/, %- 9X
:]9/ q IP
HF9 f/P d,"-
103
LB 1
!(70E= ~A '# %XJ %E= oN-5 •
!(70E 0P %'~ D0/1 %7,#0= >V0= 70 0P
.!#/ D7 3#(1 /0, F
G(0 %"= D'(,E W0, ( UP 9R •
4 70 q ,#@ 4 +,- y
%#F90 D'1¢¹1
!#m'J
:# 7 ]E> !';W0 %R90 %E=
.]E (µ DF X }9` % W0
_( - ',- 4¹J
D'1¢L1 G(= ^F90 7@
.7@ !F +,- ',- %J¶ "'#0 D'1¢L q
)'R9@ dm'@0L 'N<0, B" B"- ^F90 UP # •

:Eh (z B %9E) O ;F N<, B"- # "I
."01 E
o1 #X !(F D7 -9F 9J |O 3#1 p %J# •
N1 %71 %TG |O J90= DP'( -F +,-
.^F90 U1
JO 3#1 y O F
SR Q5 !;/ E7
d~ 8 701 >v U97
^F90 U1 %7,#0= %70=
.B'=- G0= %N'E( ^F90 D/E,/
!%
" $'* + ,%
:

^F90 - UFO1 oSmI ^F90 UP S'
d#'(N "J i01 F ^X %',"#1 9(0 )P HW( d~
104
%m'0P uV@ l D7 (E1 "01 0 ^F9@ +,- y9;A
. !J +,- y9;A 9N01 .,#0@ D i O ^F90
49@ %',#/ %m'0
%/< D#'( ^F901 (P F 6
^F9 - i O ^F90 :1 #01L §# L
%'- D#'(
.%/,0<= ]0 q Q5 D DF 9R G1 z B GJ d]
+,- %'(= D7 .'p901 U97P 4 ^F90 UP ',- 6
^F90 +,- D7 q pV@ 'F ^F90 7@ ]0P
J d Q O
40'E'] 4@]J ) .'p90
B(, U B1¢5

%E= !"- - )0' {5 ^F90 %F r90E -
D7 3#1 pV@ r= DP'1 -F 9R dJ %'P ]/
Q5 9# 4¹1 !(70E= )P §# ¨ .%E= o +,-
7 +,- "0-z '1 "'J '0>L D7 q p r
.%'1¢5 IO
|« M ^F90 9 bR ^F90 4 :(0
.( ¨
;0 %"', %&'1 '# M ^F90 4¹J 6
Bz#J '0
!J d 49@ ]0P +,- D( 0 ® "0E= 01
%7 FJ ^F9@ 9 p DF )#(0 L M ^F90 45 .)7'7h
%F r D D7 p B"] ',#J
7 _WX
.^F90 UP %' %',#/ %F r { @#F9@
:

8 DoR %E D#'(= ^F90 ]0P 4 e/
)7'7h ¢ ¨ 1 !F %#F90= 1O 4 P?k dI ()
3/a F >V1 %IG HF %E= 9N@ 4"~ !R
!G1 D#'(= #E 3/> §# ¨ z B ',F b1
105
4 y= ©zP .B#F90 4I ¨ ?I b1 4J
?I
4 4I Kz0>L (
^F9 - ,0<' ^F90
.!J ]01 uV@ DF k ^F90 ]01

qG I 45
)'5 q(0PL )N(~ ¢ > y
U97@ n' ^F90 %~9 )'"EP G0P 0 4 9 ^F90 UP
%' DR .,> U .'(N@ +,- X1 UEFO %JI
U %/,0 S@ i01
$ HF9 ^F90 U
9R9 9N> !I %#/= 9 L qPI B' B;-
.UFO1 UP
:)#F9@ ',- ¢ = %- # · 4 ',- 4I 6
! %E", %(E1 B" )#F9@ 0 M odG 49 4 •
oSR ^F9@ z B 0 zJ
,"- D' B BoSR
I ! L 9 z B ;/ B7@ B0F >V 4 !>
.%IG !> ig5 O
)- b~ 9;@ R9 4 ^F90, %'JI D9,# )- J90@ 4 •
0EP D9,# 4 od8 ^F9@ zJ
)'J p "-
4 ^F90 oR5 6I L
^F90 '5
.)#F9@ 0 ]0P p= !9# I 5
§(P 49@ n' )#F9@ 0 = b~ U<0 s 49 4 •
.%E", '/ DF ^F90 ]0P +,-
^F9@ n(# "J
B?0# B¨ B'@ )#F9@ 0 G 4 •
.(p - UFO %JI |W0@ %'# %#, # 90
106
z> U97P '0> %VE HE' ^F90 %',"- 4¹J 6
U97P 4 zJ
%' %#R 4 P "/'I P ^F901
d odG %#'(` J PIV@ #1 L5 od8 ^F901
I@ +,- ,N ^F9@
6 +,- y .)m]0P p= !9#
b~9@ %'ª@ D9,# ^g z B ',#J
%'# 4` %IG SmA
m h D(= 3#1 p 6I /P ,N %#'(`
oR5 ~ ]J 7'0P 4 !I !(F ',- .,N
n'
D7, 15 %~9 Q5 9~9= !9h U- ^F90
K # F e/1 J90= [ UFO I ^F9@ - %~#0L
.R %,',F E1 L5 0 L _m0 ? yz>
:
D#'( ^F9@ P 9
8( / q t# !>
´9" '7#@ U- [ VN %(EP 4¹J
!I U# 0I8
#F9@ % ?I b(;@ %(E q
%,',F 490 d~

e T d/@ J90 D9,# +,- o1 %'9' D#'(=
Q5 !;/ .'F ^F9@ % B(I 49 ]0 0 y#
# 4N DI8 ^F9@ %19#X B# !'<0 .U9' r90E
%- :# @ :# 9 %'# %, +,- D9mA
?I '7#@ Q5 1 ^F90 r90E ."#0 r
%'#
.^F90 %<0E= %'~ ´" %'1EA D',"#
M @ BR %" %, ."#0 r90E 4 PF 4¹J 6
",I %WRP %'~ ^F9@ ´ o1 D '0 Q5
r90E %#F90= ]/ h ',- i01 .^F90 ."-
-
r90E= %#F90= %/,01 )N1 ^F90, :# ."-
107
e1 d/ M ^F90 !O r90E= · 4 %m'0 49@
^F90 49 4 "@ %'# %/,@ YNP "~ 49 ) _9,N=
.B'/ B#JP
7@ ."- h %, %,"0¶ ¶ qPI !
4I %'J~5 %/,@ 9 ¨ ."#0 Ã(P 4 9
:# ^F9@
.,#0 "'J )- #0(P 4 ¢ M Z O
(µ 4
µ %m ."#0 !',F r90E d/0P 4 9 ^F90 ."#01
y9;A !R ."- r90E Q5 0R [ $ %/,0
:W,E :'#F B"] 49P 4 9 !O !AJ %97# ]J +,-
.^F90 UP ."- r90E h - d#/ K /01
: !"#
E7 I l %'~ ^F90 Y` %JI |W0@
4 %0 %'~ DL # %'~ Y` - !;/ Z
q #@
y O E7 IP l ^F90 y @
B'#1 d,"- 9N0 ^F9@ UP ¢5 f r5 IP l /
.7J D -
',- ¢ 9 )N@ 6P 70- y ¦Dp= d
Dp= ?0#@
/ q G1 U70 !(F )- %1R %J#
0 n' )#F901 U97P M odG1 'h (|) %'R> !9-
d"F ^F9@ 9· !J !G1 )'R9@ !R ^F90 ]01 N1
:b~ 49 dI y );7 UzI .^F9 Q5 _F
@9'(9 SR y= !'( +,- :# 0= D#'(

UF +,- "0-L1 d#'(N ,8 D#'(= q ^F9@
BJ{ 4 !7
^F90 9 y# zB ¥ ^ %71E D9E
108
%, Dz'E@ - s9( ,# 4 y U# )#F90P
L dR> p - b(;
@9'(9I R +,- y9;W,
^F90 - y E= %7N1 #F9@ ]01 )N1 1
S, B'# LB # e0/ 4 y %Fz# M D?a %P#0L1
m]0P EP B71 %,p¨ %p !',W01 U97 4
D#'(=
.%'A %p A +,-
- D7# µ yV
^F90 Dp= %' %J#=
R 8 '(#@ (E1 e # @ y# ^F90 0R
S L l D(= 3#1 - 4N D#'( yV
(P
] 3#1
B Dp= q .U %pzp - 9`
%#,E # ^J ^"0¾ %'# %' ^, # /@
%' DIG, 4 +EP L
:# #E1 fJ 0 y9>
.Dz"# KX # @ y# %'
Dp= « 4 ¢ 9N0 ^F9@ UP M 4¹J 6
l D9,#= ^g
)#F9@ 0 +,- p@ F l %'R
%&R/ Dp GP F
pV0 %"'F %'/'I h +,- -E@
q 4 4 %A q )',-
¥ - U Sm#
^F90 UP +,- .% 7 D= <0L %&R/= Dp=
%&'1 ^ +8"0 Dp= q EPO %7N h
.!"#
:

(100) _9A SR %I8 D#'(= #F9@ 4 e/
s9( ,- 0/ q yz> 9( ! z B R
.'E701 ^J 0 4 +,- ]J 4 SR !9C e- 7@
109
"J
qI %p %IG 'J )R9@ l Q O = q HE'
%TG= K q != o9 Q5 0 9# L5 4I
= d7'7A ^F90 49' ("%15) %(E1 S@ D#'(= 4 m0
15=0.15*100 = pV0 %(EP 4 n' .BR 115=1.15*100
.BR
: $ % & ' !(
DL # +,- %90¶ ^F90 70 "'";@ !G L
D',"# 6,@ !#@ )'J 0 L B01p BI %'~ D'm
DJ~5 D9N0 ^k 4 ¢ U oSR !1
%'1EA
.0= !"# %&'1 ^ Uoz0' "0E
0 n' "01 !',h 9F ,R %F %#10 %',"- ,N0@
Bz#J )7'7h ¡ ^ %'# 0/ ^F90 ]0P %#R z>

6I 0/ 6,@ <0= D7 3#1 p !',h 0
^F9 :1 d,#/ Y/ +7( #1 Dp= 3#1 p
3#1 oR5 Y/ !',h - ',-
.1E ^F90 :1
.Y/ ¬',70 %<0E= %'~ ´" +,- Dz#0
: +,- y
G 4I ^F90 4 zB !7
D'E, e# D#'( ^F9@ •
§# ¨ .' 85 HPI %'7'7A %m'0
' 100
.^F90 ' 15 ^F91 YJ s 4
]S ^F9@ ' 20 Y/ 4I Z G 4 !7 •

.]S ^F90 10 n
U9 ^J F 9R :(@
%'R Dp= !',h ¡ - •
Q5 #J1 B8 D'E, 0G %EÁ F +,- p %'#
110
F pV@ - yS#1) %'7'7A Y / 4 §# ¨ .oG U-
.i90 +,- D' (5) (15) (10) d (U9
^J pV@ %J~¹1 U 9N@ ~ B']( !',W0 'N# •
.Y/ Ì# n' B'~ q9N@ 6I U9
]S F %,G o ´9" +,- !#0 0 4 #1 •
d q % "0- %F I U b(;'
^F90 B"]
.%F %#10 %',"- S'
%F1 o/0IL ^F90 ]0P +,- z`L1 o/0IL M '
e/ 6I ^F90 U1 %7 47J Q5 %#10 4 %'A
BoSR %F %#10 #@ 6 .S U7@ ^ %E", %(E1 )@]J
.m1 q"0L d 4"~ ^F90 %',"- B
: *+
()
!X90 !R y O E7 7P l >O /
, (E0 - |W0P
d,"- U70 ^F9@ UP Q5
BI 49"0 n' H0G0 s(@L1 ^F90 +,- :,#
DF k J 5 Q5 M ¨
9N> !I D ¶1
%FN Y9/@ l D#F90, zB %'R0P %FN ^90I %
D ¶ !#R /0 1 M .y= !'( +,- %'R0P
/ D#'(= 3#1 E> Q5 ^F90 %',"- op Dp"I
; ,';W0 "0L l %'A 0F` Y9/@ l
.!J ]0P
%'«V1 ^F90 d0 ® D ¶ 39#@ !'RV@ ',- 6
[ ^F90 ]0P / ^ D ¶ 6,@ e9#P %,I
111
z
B D#'(= ^F90P - )P 6 §#
r> (#1
¶
D#'(= r90E 7J E· %'R0P %FN !" P¹J
%IG
',-
%'R0P %FN r90E 6 Y9/ F
)7'7h "=
o1 d,"# ^F90 h 7E1 j [ ^F90I )# !#0
r9;7 D#'(= 9R 1 M F .%'A %'R0P %FN +,-
6 4I 5 %'R0P %FN %#9@ "0L F Q5 %#F90=
.B B¥
7E1 ¶ [ ^F90 q 4# Yz`5 %',"- #@
"
B"] ',-
"0L ^90 e[O BR %" %VE
z
B %E= %'R0P %FNI D ¶ !#* 4
^F90 9P 4I
^F90 ¶ [ ^F90 n' !70E oSR 9R9
%',-J I DF ^X %XJ tE0@ dI +,- !I ¶
.d7'7A ^F9, %"]z
!% -. $/%

0% ,%
:
:0/,0 :0/E,J Q5 E7 ^F90 4 !;/ PI
D? +,- o1 U X5 %7` +,- "0#= %/E,/
%7N #N 00J M9@ 4 6 y
M A %71E
^F9@ ]N- o? ,R 9 )1 U97P !J
y O %''
0J #1
q - q9 +,- o1 '0 D#'(", d"F
.'(N0 !70P
I %'"F D9,# b(; #N= !"-
.%']; YN1 ^F90 d L
^F90 r>O %/E,/
112
4 P
^F90 %']; YN, U# 71 (P 4 !(F
%- .` %`> L5 f' #1 "'J qI 0' 4 IP
I 49P 4 ',-
)1 U97P !"- !I ]z /'{9@ ',-
^F90 Y` 4 D I@ n' ^F90 %"P B01
d :;0<= r %9(7 ?0# ^F9@ Y` +,- "0-L1 0(=
+,- D01L q
^F90 o9R BpV@ ]J IO
.^F90 %/,0 Y` :1 y= !'(
y"-O %&'1 ."#1 %']; YN d, "'J F
:!';/0 '7#0 Ã(P 4 4 %/,0<=
:- .. /. +012 !( , 1
]0P ^F90 %'ª@ D9,# U<0E@ l YN d
%,E, M (Time Series) %' %,E, 971 ;7P
%',(70E
49@ - S %'#R 'F 0 D9,#= %,;0
q ^k .%"0 %' D0/1 %,;/ %'00 DF
'J p@ l !9#I - .]7 %J#= !',W0, %'S D9,#=
. %#, ,` +,- qpV@ z 9=I
§S ^R= D D9,#= q !',h %
:Y` %pz1 JG0
DNN 0 n' : •
0 6 #1
Bz D#'(=I 'F ),17 S b~9@
.]J D9,#= q )7@ J _#'0
%'~ %7` d :(Autocorrelation) ! "#$%&' •
6 y
S ^ 0 - o;70L z> 0
. 4 ( "F _8) +,- ,N
113
·
o;I %/,0 DL¥ %7N q U<0E@
+,- I K#0 6 .d];5 .,N - |W0P
- %;;<0 0I Q5 9# yz> %7N q
.o;
%7N d :(Spectral Analysis) !*+, - . •
Q5 B' %,E,E0= %']; D9,#= 'E7@ 'J 0 l
+"E@ ." n' %TG0 (y9N %/,0) K'`
.(Frequency analysis) 0 !',h 4'O 3#1 %7N q
E D9,#= 'E7@ %7N q §#@
r> (#1
l 0/ %#F9 D9,#= !;/1 U97P z
B "J
7
.r>O D0/ - D#'( +,- 'J .7·
)0' ; L 9j %71E |z YN ?0#@ L
9 "0 SI 4O UFO1 - |W0P -

UFO1 UP ^F90 P 'I ^F90P 'I
49 ® nW(= ^90 :"0", .( PI
D9,#= q ^ !#0 %'/' B7"- I 9;@
/0, 0&' / n' %/,0 %' D0J %N(@=
.!',W0
(. 3!1 .1 (. !( , 2
:(Simple Moving Average)
:# - >v 8( ¿E 90 +,- "0#@ %7` d
%pzp ' (14 8 10) ^'(1 "F 9 6 y
DG=
[ 3/(14+8+10)] B E 49 ^1 U9', ^F90 4¹J %'00 U
.^1 U9', ' 11 M E
114

!"# %#'(` +,- .1E y= %<0E= UO - "0#

UO - q[ z B U9 :#1O D1E * F 6
3#1 ^'N0E@ zJ
)#F9@ 0 %#'(` 9 %'S 0/ q «
,"- %#'(N BP z B U %EÁ I '0> DE=
8 - S@ #1 U<0E F
0 (I E@
.B7(E PI "I !"# %#'(` 6 « %pzp
U970J
U9'1 ,"- %#'(` pV0@ F y"-O 3#1 4 ©L
90 !"- UO [ H( U 3 > ]0P >V1 z B
: +,- y . +,- U9 !
^ 0@ D#'( 97 91 ¬0 +7 .7«
:%'= ]9# %'0 UFO .7« )P e/
U9'

14000 10000 5000 1500 2000 7000 8500 33
18000 11000 5500 2000 3000 7500 9000 32
16000 12000 6000 2500 4000 8500 8000 31
16000 11000 5500 2000 3000 7500 8500
(
)

U9'1 pV0 ^'( 4 z %71E ]0 H,V@ 9

'#1 %m'0 HP 'E1 !G1 90= !"#1 "F P 9
I 9
^F90 9P !I BR U 9I= >O 6'00
6 = %'"F D#F9@ %',"- oR5 !(F !"# %#'(` J %'
)P US* P P5 !1
#F9@ %',"- ?I %F !#R
%#'(` %J# ?> 4 .'F ^F9@ +,- y9;A %W0L
.!"#
115

- 3!1 .1 (. !( , 3
:(Weighted Moving Average)
:# !# )1~ 0 90 M 4 9 90 971 ;7P
q 49@ B([
:# 4 +,- %' %9,# !I !;h n'
4
%p IO D9,#", %(E1 +,- 4 O
Q5 49 G .)#F9@ 0 %#'(` +,- o1 [ 49
K { T H` %9,# z B "J
%9,#= 6,@ %' r
0 %(F 70#P %9,# "'1 !F BP 'N#P
0@
F 9 49 49 n' ?I BP 'N#P P¹J
r>
(B ) 49 4 O %JI 9"¥ ( ) Q5 (/X) :1
# 4 Q5 GP
%7N q %,O 3#1 IP 4 !(F
d 4 9= 90= %7` 49I +,- I@ Dz',W0 D
%7N U<0E@
B7(E 9I= 'E( 90= !J
d, "'J .iA 0F %X9( O - BI 9I=
:%7N q +,- %'~ %,O 3#1
%'0 UFO !m D'E D#'(= e# 4 e/
:%'A %E y O ^1 yz> )@#'(=
() ( )
()
120 72 119
(0.5) UFO Q5 |O %'0 4 O oN-¹1 o? UF

(0.2) (0.3)
*(0.2) +(72)*(0.3) +(120)*(0.5) = ^F90 4 §#
' (106) )P +,- q "0- 0 F ' 105,4=(119)
.^F90 ]0P
116
:(Exponential Smoothing Average) .6 70 !( , 4
)R9@ +,- o1 ^F90 _EA %7` q !7; %7` 45
7@ !"#1 %7N q U97@
(Trend) )#F9@ 0 :#
q #@ .%'"F Dz#= 3#1 U<01 ^F90 ^F9 :1
),7P P ^F90 +,- p :# 9R % %' %7N
.$ ]0 Q5 %-E1
/ .* 0 12 34 $5 6
(Single exponential smoothing) 78 .*9 ;<
: 7=8 >4 ?
VN b'W;@ + .1E ^F90 = ^F90
VN) * () !7; !# + .1E ^F90 = ^F90 4 M
.(.1E ^F90
/X ?I ) !F () !7; !# 4 n'

_(O _ m0 %'V1 ?> I _µ +,- o1 qh 0
0/ !; pV@ r .1E ^F90 !XA VN
. ^F90 0 l 0/ !;W' %71E
D#'(= uO y=
/= dO !7; %7` +,- y
:B D' e#
33 33
0.2 120 115
.116 = (115»120)*(0,2) + 115 = 34 9(¤ ^F90

0 4 %7N q 1 )P qIP 4 ¢ ¨
:@A
BR Y` 9N0 VI <0
117
n' ^F90, !J !G1 W0, #1 %' 0J U<0 •
.1E U<0EP 4VI .^F90, %( 0/ q 49@
'N<0, I B0F 'N# ¨
36 9(O ^F90 32 9(O
.7 ^X
D0J ^F9@ i01
VN y# +,- y9;W, ´9 U<0 •
D' 4 9 VN y# 4 ,#P 4VI
y9` %'
:E" 9(O ® ^F90 _E U97P %'J~5

33 9(O UF +,- "0-L1 34 9(O z B ^F90P n'
34 9(O %"'F +,- 35 9(O ^F9@ §(P
.%#F90=
4VI
%F I ]0P dN# n' 0 !7X !# U<0 •
^F9@ VN +,- o1 i !G1 %"'7 q nh 0
.%71E Do7
C7D$ $8 $ $ .*$ $ $$EF BG$$ >4$ $ $$H
!7; %7N )1G 9 B(Double exponential smoothing)
M pV@ !7 d"F ;- +,- M9N )
/= dO
!',7@ +,- !7 !"# n' )71 - ,0 !G1 R
D',"# ?I - Q5 %7N q ´0h .^F90 VN
"I ^F90 _E 0 . /= !7; %7` %'1EA
:d,
.;<8 KL + KL8 MN ;< = ( I=8) !E4 ;<
:1H QR
( »1)+ (%71E %'7'7A %m'0 *) = )'R9@ 4 ^F90 •
(.1E )'R90 7 + )'R9@ 4 .1E ^F90)
118
)'R9@ 4 ^F90 »%71E %'7'7A %m'0)*(_) = )'R90 •
..1E )R90*(_»1) +(.1E U9',
:B9~ I 9O 49@ ® %S',*L %,1
F = Unadjusted forecast (before trend) •
Tt = Estimated trend •
AFt = Trend-adjusted forecast •
Ft =a* At-1+ (1- a) * (Ft-1 + Tt-1)
Tt =b* (At-1-Ft-1) + (1- b) * Tt-1
AFt =Ft + Tt
%'9' D#'(", uv y= U7P
%7N q b'~90
D' (10) ^'(1 HPI %( 4 e0/

D' e#=
4 E " +,- (_
) !I W01 "F P B e0/
.(0,5)
E/P d UFO 49@ )R9@ s f' )P e/P %(
)7'7h ¡ = % E
! " #$ % " & '
#$
10 = 0+10 0 (*) 10 10 1
:Z U9' ^F9@ _EA

! " #$ % " & '
#$
10 = 0+10 0 (*) 10 10 1
10 0 10 20 2
119
D#'( 20) ^F90 .7¶ F :1 BFJ s 4 ©L
)R90 4 * )R90 % # .'(N@ -
(G- 4I ^F90
.5 9 %'0 0/, 7=
! " #$ % " & '
#$
10 = 0+10 0 (*) 10 10 1
10 0 10 20 2
20 5 15 30 3
)R90 % # .'(N@ -

B YJ 9R ©zP
4 %'0 0/, ^F90 49' :
10 @ 4 *
$
.' 35 = 25+ 10= d] ^F90J i01 .25 )R9@
%,9, ( M 9~9= J +,- @F IV0,
:DL #=1 .( _E %'/'I IP
B7# Q O
Tt =b* (At-1-Ft-1) + (1- b) * Tt-1
4=
4 ^F90 »%71E %'7'7A %m'0)*(_) = (4) )'R90
.1E )R90*(_»1) +(.1E U9', )R9@
10= 2.5+7.5 = 5*0,5 + (15»30) *0,5 =
Ft =a* At-1+ (1- a) * (Ft-1 + Tt-1)
( »1)+ (%71E %'7'7A %m'0 *)= (4) )'R9@ 4 ^F90
(.1E )'R90 7 + )'R9@ 4 .1E ^F90)
25=10+15 = (5+15)(0.5) + (30 * 0.5) =
AFt =Ft + Tt
120
[ ^F90 = (]E )R90 E y#=) d] ^F90
.^F90= )'R90 + )R9=
.' 35= 10 + 25 =
UO 3#1 U7P
%7N q 47@5 +,- @-E=
y R +,- y9;A % j L5 ',- i0 y $ %'J~
:.( 7'(N@ yz> ) .1N
! " #$ " & '
#$ %
10 = 0+10 0 (*) 10 10 1
10 0 10 20 2
20 5 15 30 3
35 10 25 40 4
50 12.5 37.5 50 5
,- . ') 62.5
/ '"0 63 12.5 50 60 6
(1 20
!7; %7` 4 D _m0 # H0(p

%7'7A
@ MO I %"]z ^F9 Q5 _F ]01 uV@ ´ S= dO
6 . /= dO !7; %7` )#F9@ 0 = BP '¶
^
.1E +,- /= %7N .'(N01 U97@ 4 }7 MSS-
%7N () I )<0 ¢ Q O %7N () 4 ,#
.]0 %P7 F - %'P
¡ Q O
]0P %pzp - @ -¹1 "F 7
% /= %7N dJ %'P
.1E y= z B #J )7'7h
'0> %' ©zP
)z> .´ S= dO !7; %7` d
:^F9@ )1 U97P = %#/ %"]z IO %7N
121

70
60

50

40

30

20
10
0
6 5 4 3 2 1

!7; :1 _70 r ©zP

.1E !G oF -
- #01 I /= !7; 49 "'1
%'7'7A ]0 ´ S=
.^F9
:(Regression) ! 1 !( , 5
"'J %'¯9 9R 7'0P - U<0E@ l YN 6,@ d
6I
(z B 4 (@ Dm0
6 +,- y) )#F90P
q U<0E@
(Trend) ^F90 :# )R9@ s 49 -
pV@ %J~5 M9P L %'R> !9- 9R - 6I YN
.(%'79E@ %,Î) y %'R> Dp"I
(Single regression) /= ·L %7` :-9P +,- d
.(Multiple regression) #0= ·L %7`
> EP % # ¢5 +,- /= ·L %7` U97@
.^F90 e[O J90= %71E %'S D9,#", '70E
(Time Series) %'S D9,#= !',W0 %7N q U<0
D'@ %'79E@ DzÎ ! %m'0P ( +,- %"]7
.#O
122
:-

%-(= %'" @ ©L F ^]( :# 9 e#
1 #E) %'0 D9,#= ^" U7J
#E @ ^
:(Z O
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1.6 1.6 1.8 1.75 1.65 1.65 1.4 1.25 1.5 1.5

6,800 6,975 6,650 6,730 7,105 6,895 7,260 7,535 6,945 7,135
( )
+,- y9;A !EI5 HJ9 ' P1 9<0E ^'N0E

%7]J %-E1 D9,#= %'"1 #E 1@ l '70E= % #
6,@ - nW(1 W;P
P? 4970 L 6& O
'70E= % # Q5 !X90 ^'N0E@ l %'~ DL #=
4 P PO DL #= q IP
7 %S yz>
9N0 !] !I yz01 U97@ dI DoR UFO1
.'R990 6 J90=
% #= Q5 !EI5 yz> ,X9@
.1E y= d/J
:%'0
.(#E) *(1481) » 9328 = D#'(=
e/ §# #E /@ L !I 4 §# 4¹J
-E@ %71E % #= .(1481) q7 D#'(= D -
# '@ F +,- UF !(F D#'(= ^F9@ +,- 7 X
.0=
.#E D#'(= :1 %'E# %Fz# i0 b~9
123
8 d];5 nW( G N E/P *
%7'7A
(Correlation) (@L 9 L %7N q - |W0P ·

D@ 4¹J
%'# { " !I ! 0 :1 %Fz- 9
qµ1 Q O qµ1 r>O 0@
:# qµ :@ r5
G (@L !# q (@L 9F 'F 0 .Q ¤ fI#
; - %'0 D9,#= PR 7
491 (@ !#
:9; b'~9@ !R ,7P l
:Q+
.491 (@ !# :
__
. '7 ¿EA 9 : ‫س‬
124
__
. '7 ¿EA 9 : ‫ص‬
.J90= '7 - :4
:i0 y $ yz> %Fz# %#'(` ¢5

1=
0.99 > > 0.6
0.60 > > 0.4
0.40 > > 0.0
0=
0.40 > >0.0
0.60 > >0.40
0.99 > >0.60
1 =
/= ·L %7` )(G@ dJ

·L #0 %7N
# 4 L5
0 I 1 +,- 71 0C
D0 %pz m0 LV1 b; B j 49 4 ¢ D0=
.^F90 -
Y = a + b1*X1 + b2*X2 + b3*X3 …
M90h D9,# %9 9R - %7N q U<0E@
D#'(=1 .,#0@ D9,# 49@ 4 y
D0 - +,-
D9,#= e#0@ "'J
#O ;> +,- #1 M90«
^~9 D9,#= %'71 HPI "'1 9= E ,N r>O
.%'R> Dp 4 M #
125
# s
^F90 %#]G YN 3#1 I1 "F
4 IP .^F901 %;0<= 0 ¢5 r>O YN
%R9 %'-15 DE",1 ',- 9N0 %71E YN %JI
I qI IP P "I
UFO1 UP ^ %70
op UFO1 f US0 ',- 4V1 !;/
.^F90 7@ +,- ,"-
:
5
+,- -E", %" 9N> # ^F90 %',"#1 'F 45
Q5 %R ^F90 Y` %JI
%WR 'N<0
Q5 !X90P dI Dp= 3#1 ^ 9N@ %"] %#10
IP J n' ^F90 f'7 ,0k .^F90, S'¨ ]0P
:
:(Forecast Error)
.1
.^F90 » %'7'7A %m'0 = VN
:(Mean Forecast Error) ^F90 VN 90 .2
%J VN 9"¥) E 9 VN 90= '7
%'S D0/ -/(%'S D0/
MFE :%S',*L1 ) S
)0"'F HPI y

/X ) %'= %"'7 M E@ n'

)7'7h ¨ !F ^F90' !] qµ M 49 ^F90 4¹J
)(R9
B([ 4I ^F90 4 §#@ '7= %'(, %"'F .'7h 4 :
126
'· %J#= '7= U<0EP P¹J i01 .^F9 ?I
.%<0E= ^F90 %7`
^F90 VN<, %7,N= %"'7, D /0 90 .3
:(Mean Absolute deviation)
'· - 31 VN<, %7,N= %"'7 _EA '7 9
D',"- - +,- %9E7 VN<, %7,N= '7 9"¥ 9J
VN
.^F90
:(Tracking signal) .4
'@ 1 P(>¹1 U97 M %'O i- '7= 9
'F 9"¥ - (- 9
%<0E= ^F90 %7` !#@
:JA1 ) S .(MAD) D /0 90 +,- %9E7 VN
.TS
%&"N +7(@ ^(00 85 4 Q5 ^F90 :;0<= G

(4» ) :1 0"'F H .(N= ^F90 UP !"- 9;a
.(4)
:(Error Percentage) ^F9 VN %"'F %(EP .5
)1E 0
^F9 - ^F90 K· r= '7 9
?#
7'7h ¡ l %"'7 +,- VN<, %7,N= %"'7 %"EF yz>
:%'0 % #=1 )-
127
M E@ l ^F90 %F 'F
'7= yz>
:r> %,1 M
%9&= VN %(EP ) B N
:(Mean Absolute Percentage error) .6

'7= %19E¶) VN<, %7,N= %9&= %(E, E 9
:^F90 D',"- - +,- B9E7 (.1E
o/I h +,- P-E@ f'7 qI .( !I !

^ %P7 9 7J ( +,- ,I U97@
^F90 ]0P
UFO1 _1 P¹J 6
%'7'7A )m]01 )#F9@ ¡
1 !I 9-P
B7(E - ph l 0(= ]0
f'7 0> +,- !"# 4 ^F90 %"P .'(N@ UFO1
p _#'0 +,- -E@ t# ]J I 49@ ),"# R
.^F90, %71 ]0P +,- o1 %-9;= D7
D7'(N@ )0F ^F90 o/I '7 f' 4v yE
o/I o 'F 45 971 yE )01R5 ¬<,0@ ¦r>
: 9X #1 49
9N0 d ^F90
!'( +,#J
%-(= DJ~ 3#( BIj f'7= 3#1 #@ •
^F9@) Bz !7
^F90 ]0P B'· * -
y=
%'1E %',"- %J~¹1 U97P P¹J
(:# F )N90 ]
6 %"'71 ` %',"- d L "0#= ^F90 %7` +,-
.F
128
+,- "0-L r M Q5 %J#= BR %"= f'7= #@ •
.^F90 ]0P
Q5 %RA %#(0= YN %#R f'7= q yz> 0 •
0 ) ^F90 B'7#@ IO %']; YN Q5 )R90
.'/ ^F9@ Q5 !X90, (10I I
.^F90, %/,0<= YN :1 1 80L z> 0 •
:
Q5 !X90, ^F9@ %7` I U<0 %¥= %7N1 §#P
^F90 D',"- %P IO %7N q #@
%m'0P
0 l %/,0<= YN, :# 4 oN-5 +,- U97@ dJ
%JI
%7N d ¨ %F I ^F9@ 0 n' ^F90 <0
%¥ %7` .'7W0 %'0 D9N1 · b;P .'9
:( y O G@ = !(F %07 D9N q)
.7'(N@ "= YN h .1
%71 D9,# +,- YN q d .'(N@ %',"- oR5 .2
.B7(E 9I= HE f'7= o/I 'F
#F9@ VN S L y
'7 ! i K h .3
.D' fÁ - (y O '7=) D'E D#'(=
Q5 N0E= F !X90, %#(0= YN, %/,0<= 4 O oN-5 .4
.%71E f'7= i= F
4 O q '@ +,- !"#1 %7N q .'(N@ op b;P .5
.%'= o O f'7 .'7h ^ 0
129
4 e0/,J
D'E D#'(= #F9@ +,- ^ y
.' (120) %'P ' (100) #F9@ 4I Q O %7N
= ^F90 49'J (0.6) %'P (0.4) Q O %7N 4 4I :
^g )P IP .' 112 = (0.6*120) + (0.4*100)
E1 49 4VI B'7#@ I %'1E D',"#1 B# YN q
YN U<0 0 n'
D/- f R U7
.'5 %RA E B'7#@ IO
G M iA HF9 BR % %¥= %7N q #@
%¥= YN _1 !> .y"-O %&'1 BS0 B'7#@
%7` U<0 +,- U97@ l ^F90 0(= YN
^F90
r> %'1E D',"#1 ¥
%#]G YN
Y` Q5 !X90, %1m0 +,- %"]F 0( D~0J
.)'J %7(N= !"# %&'( %( ^F90 %'# D'm R
R ^ y¾ 4 IP
^F90 - PI !I #1
L5 IP
'7#0 %1 %'~ %'];5 ´ )'J !>@
+,- +7( # Q5 y9>1 6 b"E@ l D'O
- nW( !';/0 S Q5 %R )P #G M }7
%, %,;/ B 8 U7@ l ^F901 %;;<0= 0 #
. 9~9= -
:
B9;@ t1 F }7 49 4 ^F90P

!;/ %
!;/ !> 701 _0 "F F
^F90 - BW~
I !I - U97 4 }7 +,-
^F90 ,- -
130
6 UFO1 - (Q O %pz y9;/) _0
D' E= h !"G
^F90 7@ -¹1 U97 -
.p 'F 7 ^X %',"- .'p90
)P9I 0, U# #0 4 sP 4 ',-
r> %R
D9,#= #@ +,- .(N b'WX O d~= Bp
%W'WX 49@ 4 ¢ dJ
^F90 <0EP l %'ª0
V1 ^F90 .,#0 4 ¢
)',- )#F9@ 0 = %" 49@
op !"# o9R ]E %'Fz>O '/= US0,P B
.#F9@
+,- "0#@ ^F90, I %'1E Y` s 4 IP

7# 9 'E1 9 %/,0 %'~ DL #
f' _0 : U9"- J0L IP
!"# 4 !I b;P P¹J 6
^F90 :;0<=
o; ^F90 %;;<0= 0 Q5 9#1 U97 4 ^F90
.D9,#= S= E0 dI
131
132
‫א
א‬

!
" # $ %& ' ()
* #
+#
&

,
& - ! %!
% 0
#+& .

.
0
.
1" 2 $ 343 0 56 (0

: 70 (

8 +
.
.
#
•
6
$

9
,

;
0 •
.(Graphs and Charts)

.# 2 0 •
133
134

Systematic and well ) @ , - (- 70
%,G X 9~9 !',h #@ Q5 K (organized
:+,- M90« F %'#
.UFO |O # ^R •
.70 9R9= UFO |O O b'~9@ 8 •
. 9R9= DP'( !',h .` - D#F90 .]7A ''7@ •
.qS'I@ y¥ +,- p= D7 3#1 ]0P %GF •
.DR00 •
.D0F •
:( )

.%F •
.9~9 •
l )@9,# +,- pV0 4 ¨ m XV1 9 •
.%Fz# M R0«
.'R %7N1 ) %W~ %,' 9R •
DR00L D1EA D9,#= e- %,' 9 70J B5
!"#$" %& ' *" +,
ov
' ,. *" / 0
1 2 34 5-64) -
:(7*" !8*"
.] UF +,- M9N L »
135
¡ l %'"F DFz# f'7= _E %'/'I b~9 »
.%,70E %W/X 6
70 o1 <0
IO UFO Q5 %'9"- IO UFO e# !E,E0 »
.B;;k
l UFO %JI U7 !1
%'"F D~0J MO LB ¥ s0 L »
.70 }F R0«
.%~0/ %'7'7 %#F90 HPI o9
UFO 9P b~9 »
.()',- o1 D7 ; ),(70E ) )'<0E « »
.)@9,# ; )5 q -¹1 UF « »
:

7@ D9N q U<0E@
%7'7A
9N0 6 #1 M !G1 <0 0 UFO1
UP - B'#1 70 U<0E@ 6I d
70
:UFO1
!"G
(70 K) 70 q@ %101 F »
y5 !I )# %7J +7(@ 70 - %N'E1 %7 -5
70 :<0E= <8O o71 "P L PO
.(X
K .'7W0 R0· l %'"F f'7= UFO W01 F »
9N q #@
0(= JO %10I !"G
70
.0= Dz#0 ,0<= %#~>
UFO %-9"¥ !I ]0P +,- .',#0 I W01 F »

.d"F e- !1 %7,#0= D7 %#10 %7` 6I
136
q I !/
%<0E= UFO D9,# ; h »
. +,- f'7 UF %-9"¥ !I %N7
._9A +,- 70 '";01 F »
.%9W %9, 70 oN> %#R F »
IV0, 70 (U<0E= :- U<0) !',h -¹1 F »
.)J )7'7h
.70 '";01 F »
:
!"
70 '";01 6'F op Dz %F91 ¼/0L !/ »
.70, 6"'";@ op J 61 Nª %10
%',"# %E Q5 70 Yz`5 !(F > <8V1 #0 »

_9,N= K )7'7h 70 J %9 r J
.)
',- "0#@ l D9,#= ;= %# !]1 9R IV@
>V@ DL ^F90 UP U<0L %N<I) 4 F
.(UFO 3#1
6
9~9= - ,# L }7 4 B"] e0J
y9 %/,0 DW'~9@ !'X/01 70 '-01 F
.)<0E@
%F r - !m ©/ F
70 X5 HF »
.= HF9 70 y5
.%GIS= 9N 9; 49O 1 s7@ H0G@ L
q ; W01 L5 > ¬<8 *5 >V1 7@ L »
.D9,#=
137
l %'7 J +,- -E@ 70 D90j 4 B"] IV@ »
4 ¢
9 DL³E0 # +,- 'µ "I
GF
!J 4" § ;- !"#1 F) 4V01 9N q '/@ 0
.(]0
B"] 6E/ 01 !"# op 6E/ o« +,- ©J »
¢ 4 }7 ¦70 K 9 y
¦70
%'¯ [ D;0>L %'# %, U<0 µ »
.70 D",I "0#= [
F M9 f( M Dz= -5 - +,- I »
.°`> J Q5 M
[ D>V@ 4 )@oF _'EP
70 * Dz- »
.% ~
: #$
70 49I DL7= 70 :1 Y/ "
%7'7A
4¹J 6
%'-J - %'E'] #1 oSR !8 +,- #@
:P9 %- %,' <0@ UFO1 UP 70
+,- M90h 7@ !I Q O %W/; d :9;<*" =8> »
Q5 %J~5 70, #= ¬<G/E7 70 49-
G1 "E - y E= ¬<G 6I
- @
9N> M - #01L I@
Q5 %J~5 .R 45 70
.9X 7#
%W/X #1 uV@ B % %W/X d :9?-@" =8->
70 K b~9@ ;F 7J %J~5 0@ 'J
Kz
138
9F %E= <8¤ s8 6P0 I ^
- I !/P "I
70 -5 +,- -E=1
- E/0 MO @ F Z 0L ?I y;@L
.70
- S l 70 9R9 49@ :A+-B" =8-> »
%W/; q 49@ 4 ¢
DW/X ^1 - W/X
70 UEF %JI +,- M90h 'R D -¹1 %W~
45) DW/; F I +,- A ^ %'-/ %'E']
s 49 4 _9R I1 $ .(B<0E 4I
.70 9@ %,> %'W'~90 U9, %,;/ %"]F
uV@ [ 70 % %W/; q -5 0
.)01
UFO +,- M90h %W/X d :?C7D" EFG" =8-> »
!'( +,- IP 4VI
70 -5 <0 ¡ l %01
¬k 7@ :# ´0P5 r9;7 %'R0P %FN y=
'@ ¬k 7@ 4= :1 DJE
^;
.DE= 3#1 !7
M9h l %W/; d :H8I*" J AK#-LD" =8-> »
d"F '7= I 0'J
%'"F 70 D90¶ B7'p9@
M I !/
- 0 l % #= d"F @
D90¶ !O U<0L +,- -E@ r> Dz
.70
ANIOK" A%P;D += *" *" A+-M »
.=8>
' !QD"
139
.WXF& T O U VI !HCD" A""*" =8> S
%JI ; +,- M90h %W/X :A+LD" #- =8-> S
.70 -5 <0 ¡ l UFO
8 +,- M90h %W/X d :L*" A=YD" =8> »
9R9 %;;<0 DW,N; D",I M b'~9@
."J }7 +,- #; F 70
:%& ! ' #(

'";@ !8 -5 op e# %, VN dN#
U B7]- 7 F oN>O 9
B&' B-(NP 70
.)J .'7h )0XJ H9/@ i01
)',- "0-L 70 J
+,- .'F0 0 n' %#E D9N qT U'71 b;P 6
:d,
m'J
±E0E [ B7# 1 4¹J
70, U# !G •
.U# ),8 '";@ -5
.J 9~ %<0E= D", '0 •
.e0/= 70 r90j 6"0 •
.%']z %9W oN>O •
.9 70 e# %7` D(p •
) 6@oF yz> 70 !70 %9 r 'F •
.ozS1 %P#0L1 6'F
J9@ +,- )@F 9R9= D9,#= UFO ; IV0 •
. ¶ HF9 D9,#=
140
:

)(
(
$ $
DIG T U97@ l D"= !JO !',h %',"#1 "F
D'00 q Q5 !X90 ~- UFO U<0 r?
:'/ %" %/E,J D d %#(0=
Q5 %'9"- IO F i@ d !G1 UFO e#1 F »
:/{9 %45) 971 (P 4 +,- y
Bh IO F
?> %30
?> D9 fÁ I %IG
}7 oN-5 +,- %7N q -E@ .(!"# y¥ f/P
.)'5 d@ UFO q )'#@ = _'EPL ! BR0 B'-
N1 LB 1 :9F :1 #~91 %(E UFO S''"01 F »
d B-9'8 I B<0 IO %7N
E 8¹1
.8000» L1 (8000) ! :9F :1 %(E UFO ^~
F Q5 49O J9@ y ÎO 49, %J~¹1 U97 3#(
.9FO
9"¾ S'
#(1 %7,#0= UF¤ B"] 9"¾ ^~91 F »
z
B "J UFO q %'/, 49 49 '01 5 S'¨ 49,1
D#'( !',W01 U97P
KX %EÁ ^'( ^; 4I 9
UFO q ^'¥ Q5 % !X90 0 4 +,- X !I

.D87 3#1 ^ 8"I 9"¾ U<0E n'
DW/X I ¡ 5 %'A DW'~9@ U<01 F »
DW,N;= %W/X DL #= %W/;I b'~90, %;;

% DL # BR % DW,N; s 49@ BP'
G I §# ¨ o7 %- ,N0 7@ BR
141
DW/X I @ 45 %W/; q +,-
.%X b'~90
4 +,- )'5 81 R r90j M Q5 q(0PL H/,1 F »
q ( %J~ @ I ^ B HC F )0J~5
.%7= %J~

!
+,- UFO1 UP d#'(N ,G1 UFO e- 0
%190 D",I %P9 7J "~ %,;/ UF y R !8

´00 oN- U9 3#1 Q5 %R 4'O 3#1 E/P *
.) %P9= UFO !'X/@ y9> Q5 %RA 4 ^
%'N'N<0 y8O %/,0 9P - E7 |W0
: 'E1 7@ ^ %'W'~90 U9 %'P'( U9
:(Area chart) !
* *
142
(M ; 9¶) %/,0 'F e# %7N q U<0 0
7 %J#= )<0 0
(§'E 9¶) %/,0 %' 'F ^
+,- )<0
d, *L oSRO oSR M %E
E B"] 9"¾ 49 n') %9&= E 9 y O
:,8
.%'"I0 '7 U<01 Z (9
:(Column chart) ( *
*
143
D9,#= !',F - e# %7N q U<0 0
K
j %' 0J ("#
% I) j K {
.UFO :1 %P7 D',"- oR5 9 %7N q dE']
9R DP7= #@ - D7 j %7N q #@
.D9,#= (I %-9"¥
:(Segmented column) -. / *
U<0E@ d
E7= 9"#1 %7N q K#@
%7N q d/J
S ^ ! oS$ :1 %Fz# e#
-9"¥ M E@ B"] %(E 4 M) %', UFO @
!I %E EP 0@
% E0 +,- (
%'(E %'O 4'(@ %F YN I YN q #@ .)]SR
.oSR¤
144
:(Line chart) *
:d, "I e[O #0 %7` d

.D9,#= %,9` %,E, e# »
.D9,#= 7P # 1 ¢ »
.^F90 D',"- +,- -E", »
!8 I 1 D9,#= !z - :1 %P7", »
.dN>
.)'J @ ¢5 (Trend) :# M ¢5 % ¶ »

D0= %,E, :1 )- 1@ 9R %J#= »
.^F90 !;J 10 - B71 qI1 "F
'70E > )P §# L dN !G 4 I1 $
40FL U9I %'W 9N> U<0 5
7J
q U<0 9¢ L .y= !'( +,- % %'P %R
.%'"F B"'F §'E 9¶ ! L - %7N
145
:(Pie chart) 0 *
*
Q O
UFO1 :p :<0 D %7` d
%/,0 X- :1 j 0J %'(E %Fz# {5 d

%' 0J - !I %/,0 oSR :1 %P7", 6I
. j
^ D8"I %9&= %(E U<0 %7N q !/P
9¢ L )P "I
d, 9"¾ L5 'F % I - #01L
oSRO (I "0E D@ 9R - %7N q U<0
0/ ¬; !I 4 %7N q 9;F .
.oSRO !',F - !'"0 %AX 7J
%'
!F ) U9 q 9P > - 9R Q5 GP
^90, o; D'~ 0I Q5 9#1 b;P
B<0
%95 %'N0 d/ qI1 "F 4 :7p P ^ y¾
.!"# y8O U9 D<0 !FO +,-
146
:* ! 1
$2 * 3(
!"
D9,#= 0J# 1 L
%'W'~90 y8O U<0 -
:%'0
49# 49 4 +,- !I !> 49- ^~ f@ L »
.B'J B'JI
.9~91 9j !I ), I ¢ »
HPI 45 9j !I +,- %<0E= D9 %10I ¢ »
! %<0E= %,"# 9P IP 4VI
%7(N
.D#'(=
+,- -E §'E M ; 9¶ 'E70 '0>1 F »
4 B"] f',J
{5 9@ l % {5
.(0 ,0) d 6 !XO %N7P 49@
q(0PL H/, Y9J %190= Dz= 3#1 I »
D#'(= " !> 0@ 4VI
6@z=
.(%5 7
" #

J +,- -E= E !;/ >O n E7

7 ^X %',"- - |W0P 7'(N@ UFO1
yz> U97P U- 9 7 ^X %',"- - |W0 E7
7 ^; "]z 9~9= !#$ @z I1 nA 6
.UFO1
147
3 #(

+,- K#0 d 7 ^X - nW, %1 !J 45
:EW01 .,#0@ %,8 %',"- d 7 ^X %',"#J
)0'
M
'J _9[ [ K { %5 9R9 K { 9N@
[ K %5) DzG= ! K# = %,8 %',"-
.('J _9[=
C d £ F !X %'1# %, 7 %",I DoR

B"] K 7 ^X %',"- 4 §# ¨
"0 9 7 4 M
''7@ %',"- yz> !JO +,- y9;A %E= :C Q5
%',"- 90@ . !JO '0> %0= D' !](,
- % ? .` - d ''7@ :1 q ''70
7,N dJ %#1 J90 D9,# !',h .`
^) 9~9 %7,#0= UFO %JI !',h ''7@ yz> UFO1
^1 9 S'"0 %71 _µ yz> 7 p ^F9@
:%'0 %,&O )N1 7 ^X
¦%'7 qT .,#0@ l UFO d »
¦P71 pV0@ F l UFO d »
¦P71 UFO q pV@ 49' 'I »
¦UFO 6,@ +,- B71 PF pV@ 4I 'I »
',- 4 P?k D9,# 9R 7 ^X %',"- (@
S' @
%XJ /0L ^~9 9N0 sW0
( )'(@ Q5 %J~5
7 ^; I J J901 UFO1
!]( ''7@ %',"# q "0E@ .^F90 %"P <01
148
d0@ 7 ^X 0
7 9~9 %7,#0= D'
.]0 q ©/ )m]0P PF p ''7@ - %',"#
L dJ
d"F .,N 7 ''701 UFO1 U97@
%m'0P HPI 7 y97@ 5
0¨ 'R ! D",I U<0E@
M I@ F
:# 7 %'# %(E1 :# F
4I ¿¢5 !G1 > :# ^~ q9N@ [ 7 T B(, pV@
.7 ^X K 9
UF DR901 pV0, B([ %'"F [ D9,#= ^k
%7'7A s(>¹1 L5 U97@ L %W'W; UFO

6 J901
D9,# - @P b'W; 7 4 7 ^X D",E
d"F +,- 7 ^X %',"- 4 US* P¹J i01 .%W'WX
+,- %"]7 7 ^X %',"- 1 !J N90 49@
.'F § UP UFO1 4 +EP L .%'"F [ f
S S' E0@ i01 7 ^; HF9 6'N#
.!J F ([ §# ¨ ~
:d fÁ ! U- !G1 7 ^X %',"- C
:*
(%,G= ) 7 9~9 h 0
9N q
6 #1 7 T pV0 F !I h 0
W01
!]( ^~ %,= q !"G@ .7 ^X K h 0
>O oS$
('J 1 01L !'/@ ^) D'
o?> G 7 9~9 - D9,#= J901 49 %,= q
:d, S'"0@ 4 ¢ D9,#= q 4 Q5
.7 ^PX !(F %19,N 7 9~9 %Fz- D 49@ 4 •
149
._9,N= HF9 E 0F91 uV@ 4 •
.%W~ %W'WX %7'F D9,# 49@ 4 •
UFO1 4 D9,#", D/; q "J I
G q J9@ :@ ,#µ .( !1 S'"0@ l
.%JI
:
2*4

9~9= ? %Fz# _WX ^ 7 %',"- d
6I
R BJ / dN#@ Q5 G0L %' 9#@
¨ !(F ",#@ @ % N !]1 _9'- G0L @
B([ !/ .%#F90= '(,E B#0E 49@ (0E@ 6,#¢
@ L ® 4 F G0L oN-¹1 U97 - h
.HF9 ^''J D0FL
: 3

EPO ' !( '0> 'J 0 l %,= d
%JI 4'EP ¢
%,= q d/J 7 .'(N@ 8(
.7 +,- S'I0 %0= !](
: 23 5 1
T .,#0 UEFO JO ^'"$ 7 b'~9@ ¢
U % / .]9# !,7@ 4 9N q 4V8
9~9=
.) - Gh F "I
7 '/@
:
%#10 0 n' 7 '/@ o1 ^ (@ l 9N d
.^7@ oN> M zX5 y V1 LB )m]0P
150
: !"#$" "?CO" ?I
H&
q ©/
%' %'"F :0'P 7 ''7@ ¢ »
.%',(70E= D<0z ]0
.%#F90 %'"F .]7 '-0 7 GP b'~9@ >V 4 ¢ »
.d"F +,- > - G0L 49@ 4 ¢ »
.;@ +,- J90= UFO %JI Q5 1 B"] F »
.A !(F UFO !(F 7
U97P P M
7 k f' 7 ^X %',"# +"E@ »
.>v ',701 f' · @9,# · @?> !#/1 )R0P¹1
: 3 3( #
63
/ B([ $ HF9, 5 9J : 0 »
.%'(
) K B9,# f' BF ^;@ L :K e9"[ »

.q@ f' .7W0 4997 "I B(J
.B',7@ L B-15 %#] D7 %JI :M',70 /0 »

/) %'E/ !9#I :r> !9#1 pV0 »
.(%7
K9) %'J7 !9# (y³/0
0= HF9, 5 )'/J
0, 3'7 KN 9 : E0 »
.S ^ J90@ F l /, 5 6I
:# '> ~ .(E F9 49 n' :.(E= '·L »
.%'",- L %',"- [ _(O
.%'O %,',F %W~ [ D9,# )'J Ã(= U"0L »
151
.<0 y l %7 D9,#=1 U"0L U- »
.U<0E@ l D9,#= ^g /= U"0L »
.%',(70E= D#F901 U"0L U- »
0F (E1 f' ; (E1 %9,# ~ S'W0 »
.0'
%',"- 4 IP P¹J
!;/ n E7 U0>
%JI ^g L5 ',- "J %, %, %"= ^ b(;@ 7 ^X
M rP d"F X91 :W,E R0· l D9,#=
. !J D7
"

."^"?$" +,D" *" " :AZ [ \+ »
6,@ 4 UFO1 %7,N= PP %R §#
d-1 y' %'"F %' %190= 70
.)J .'7h - B'#1 ),#µ 70 %³ !07@ / y;5
/ U `* +L> _
V K" :+& \+- »
"."*" TI>
U7 4v 9
)0"- 49',1P %A ^'"$ G
L5
D7 ^X %',"- %19#X [ )P :(@ L %"
.* M %' IO
5L +LID" ? ?I" :a+-
\- \+- »
?I dAI=I , U Wb ++ c/F*" ANP
eaQfg ++ c0+L8 eW /F*" Qf4 ?
".AI=ID" eO*" EJ / h*H
152

D'W= U9 U<0 %P r @ %,'g %97
"I
F ^X !R !',W0, <0 n'
%/E,J 9R ¬<,
F e#, <0
¦7 ^; UF :yE) UFO1
(¦§#7@ dI UF 6 :yE
153
154
‫א
א‬
‫ ‬
‫

‬
‫‪:,% -. ! ! "# $%
& ' ()*&+‬‬
‫" ‪.
#/ 01‬‬ ‫•‬
‫* ‪.% 3‬‬ ‫•‬
‫‪. *.4
)/5‬‬ ‫•‬
‫‪155‬‬
156
$% #& '
(#
o9
UFO1 - %71E HE y9;/ ph

Q O %pz y9;/ 4I "I 8( %7N1 4I

E f :,;/ ,#J "I 8( )(8 %7N1
!;/ DEµ l 8(= [ %7N HPJ % %7N
.^1
K }7 Eª 4 +G odG 3#1 nA #G@
UFO1 d/E,/ 9$ _#'0 9 L

_0
}7, zB ' B0/ 49 ;F ´ 5 1 L 4I 6
._0 oF )"0> !(F
:UEF %pzp Q5 UFO1 %/E,J 9R E7
X HP )'J 49@ F9 +,m0 EF :y O E7 »
l %VE= - J90= UFO d " :yVE@ - 7
"¦7 T .,#0
)'J HP 49@ M F9= 49 EF :Z E7 »
-
%E= - ?> d7,0 K / B#"0E
"¦ 69F -@ G@ l UFO " :yVE@
%7N1 UFO ^ !#0 % .,> 9 :n E7 »
n' UFO1 UP oGP5 .` - 49
%'m
z
B B Z y O :"E7 !#R +,- %A q -E@
.BR
GP (P n'
'/0 n' %/E,/ q ´0@
% ^X Q5 !70P Z y O :"E7 %/E,/
.(UFO1 UP) UFO ^ = !#0
157
W~ P 70#P
´ .` - 'E( !G T
q Q5 L5 }7 ´0« L UFO1 d/E,/ 9$
/ !" dI %/,0<= y9;/ qI ¡ ^ D9,#=
.7'(N@ UFO1
) * + (#

U7P
Q O ", %'"F 70 ^ 49,#0 -E=
%" %# ]J .7« 4 ) ^F90P M = ;7 .W,=
.UFO ^ !#0 !(F
:
7 3
'
^ !#0 <0E l f'7= I 45 %7'7A
%Fz- "N1@ :0"'F :1 Y/ '7 9 BG0P UFO !',h
::' :,8 %P7= q %'#
:'8 *
3

S !??l" *" = j8*" :*#LD Y*" 0Ha i-C&
.m?*" *"
Y/ _E U97 D' e#
%7N q +,- y
9(O )@#'( HPI
9(O r90E +,- )@#'( :1
110 )@#'( HPI [33] .1E 9(O .' 120 = [34]
.'
4 §# J
D' 110 »120 = Y/ 4¹J
)',-
,9W01 'E( Y/ %7` 9N@ .D' 10 7
%'1EA D',"# [ :"F d#1 :1 Y/ Q5
_9,O T Y/ %7` #@ .Y/ 7 b'~9@ D
158
D ",I
)'F 0 "'J !XA 0 7 W0 %7`
.Y/ _( !',h R
F %"'F
: 9 /
*")] = Z<*" \?L :*#LD -Y*" 0H-a i-C&
(m?*" *")/[(m?*" *") S (!??l"
= 110/(110»120) = 0 y# .1E D'E y d/J
Y/) %P7= Y` 071 - %7N q S'"0@ % 9
%'O E Y / ;@ %JI '7, %' dN#@ V1 ('E(
!'( +,- 49', )@#'( %"'F Ã,(@ ^;
+,- y
%'(E
q f/P 4 :
(5 %) !C B/ 49EÁ 7 SJ y=
S 4 §# ¨ (50 %) !C ( 100) )@#'( ^;= S
.:0 E0 :0"'7 4 [ y O ^;", %' I Z ^;=
y#= > U9/ U<01 U97 3#( 4 IP 4 d71
%"'7)/($ %"'7) = 0 %(EP 4 n'
Z<*" Q7& 9 0
\?L 4 n' .0 y#= t#= f/P dN#@ %(E q
(%7
.1 S Z<*" Q7& = Z<*"
:
* ' #
%W'WX UF %$# UFO1 f 4 ,#P
0 >v (E 4'O 3#1 BP'
%W'WX D',"#1
]0P 90 ©/ +,- U97@ %# %7N1 b;P
°`> F
+,- y .)/· ^ %µ UFO %P7 :# '7
8000) :# > %'R0P5 y# 49 4 z B %7N q
(%-/ 22000) Q5 G B"F * VmJ (%-/

.F %WX IV0 F90 ¢ -
159
:[ABC] (; 6 -) *
%N(@ %-9"¥ M ^90 %" ';@ %7` d
Q5 %/,0 ^]1 # ';@ Bz P 9,J
D&J Q5 UFO
E +,- ]F :# 'E701 U97P P¹J
[y-/y0#/3/<]
:%7N q J i0 y= U<0E
%"]F !I # %9&=
e/) %'0 #O1 %/,0 Dm0 [10] ^'( ^; :\_
(Z O 1 z
B %,"# 4

16 14 12 8 8 8 7 5 5 4
Dm0 Dm0= B½ %20 +,- (0- ^;= 5 DF
]1S S % :# 9P ¬';k 0 #E %'-

." %/< ^]1 B# Dm0= %30 !F
:uvI ^]( ';@ ¡ )',-

16 14 2=10 x %20 %20
7 8 8 8 12 5=10x %50 %50

4 5 5 3=10x %30 %30
E Dm0= ';@ qz- y $ yz> ^'N0EP

S'I0 ¢ l .`= W0 BR S'¨ %7N q
#O
.',-
}7, t"0P l D= 3#1 Ê .W,= F
D", Ê0@ L 0 DW/X 4 IP
T#'0 "J
.KLv DG- - Ã,( F l %'"F
160

UC5 +,- -E@ 9 7@ -E= !;/ !X9P
I UF %,& nW(= U7J
_0 0
:_0 oSR B#1 9E= oF #1 N1 oFXO
6# #* & 8*#

:<*
=- &
8*# ' >
0 M
%,70E % 5 %/E,J UFO1 45 %7'7A
.G, %(E1 .L U r> % 5 D/E,J DR o9 7'(N@
% .'(N@ F UFO1 .'(N@ ,N0 L
yE Z
* ]J '7 <0 !1 r> % 5 %/E,J
.r>O % D/E,/

?& **<
*
$ ;
! :<*
!FO +,- 9 UEFO %J UFO1 y9º - ph
%JI 4¹J
yE1 .,#0 "'J
UFO1 %/E,J G1
%RA q %R D /0@ UFO1 Q5 ´0h UEFO
.> Q5 EF

8*#8 74- @ A
:<*
d"I0 d",# 9N0 0 M
)#(N1 d"I@ ,#
q %'"I0 ]0P r5 @ F U9,# R - J
q DoR UFO1 .,# %9p !8 +,-
'W~ G0= % D/E,/ - DS@ 4 #1 0/
_0 0F 4J 7 ^; 'E1 ( Q5 %R
.UFO1
161
#/* @ 6*3

:<*
6
$ A
%7'F [ %9& %(EP F M _0 U<0EP
d",# nW( ' %#(0 D'];5 D - %µP [
%'¯ ^F9"I %/,0 I GP ¡ 491 49;0 T UF
.%;;<0 Dz¥ HP0P +,-
$A A
B6
$ A C )/ $A :<*

**< D
*- EA$ 7 !
F
!- D
*-
%'1 %J7 %'1# %J7 :1 YJ s %7'7A
sP ,#P ·
%'# %E ¬<8 I _#'0
# P L5 %'1 0 DE= o¯O I {
DE= <8O _ m0 r90E f/P +7,P L ¿#
.%'1#
*

3 :<*
4 PI !1
%7 HE' % 80 _0 PI

'> 9 !1 B'"0 B f' :# !G1 UP 9R ®
yz> UFO1 %J7p +,- y9;A 9 M O
PO UFO1 |h" :%,"$ +,- ]7 d/E,/ 9R GP
".UFO1
3- D & 7( 4& G! A
:<*

D.H$
b'~90 '#P
_0 yE +,- (R
UP :1 '1 ,> |« L ® o O 5 I ¡ 971
162
!"- UC d oSR dJ ^F90 %"P .UFO1
.UFO1
*
*

8 7 '8
:<*

3 ' !
UFO1 UP qP d UFO1 D/X 45
- '/@ %' dJ D9N
(.'(N0, dR !G)
.%'O D/;1 ^0"0 UP Q5 !X90, D9N>

'
I
!
:<*
%/,0<= % D/E,/ .'(N@ %'= )¯ od8 R9 L

GP ( UFO1 0"= .'(N0 45 y97
UP !'G@ +,- !"# UFO1 d/E,/ 9$
.%E= !> EF Q5 EF UFO1
G ! 7 !8
3 A
3 )/ $ A
:<*
#/
3 )/
*

$ A 83
2
% /E,J DE= DJ7 B0 s0 4I
0k dI %90/= 7 q !I ,#R 6
'J %7(N= %/,0<=
.( DE=
163
164

!

"
#$ % & " $' () * +,
-. &/ 0-1
: 2, 3" 45 6 78%
- David Sinclair and Mohamed Zairi (1995), Effective process
management through performance measurement - Part III,
Business Process Re-engineering & Management Journal, Vol. 1,
No. 3,
- De Toni & S Tonchia (2001), Performance measurement systems
- Models, characteristics and measures, International Journal of
Operations & Production Management, Vol. 21, No.1/2,
- Kaplan, R. S. and Norton, D. P. (1993), Putting the balanced
scorecard to work, Harvard Business Review, September -
October,
- Robert Kaplan (2002), Using the Balanced Scorecard, Conference
“Robert Kaplan Live”, 20 June, Kuala Lumpur.
- Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton, the Balanced
Scorecard: Translating Strategy into Action.
- National Conference of Key Performance Indicators 2003.
- Dublin, M. 1989. Futurehype: The Tyranny of Prophecy. New
York: Plume.
- Hanke, J. & Reitsch, A. 1992. Business Forecasting: Fourth
Edition. New York: Simon & Schuster.
165
- Millett, S. & Honton, E. 1991. A Manager's Guide to Technology
Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods. New York: Battelle
Press.
- Modis, T. 1992. Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals
the Past and Forecasts the Future. New York: Simon & Schuster.
- Talbot, M. 1991. The Holographic Universe. New York:
HarperCollins.
- Toffler, A. et al. 1972. The Futurists. New York: Random House.
- The Right Way to Write Reports (Right Way) by Steve Gravett,
Publisher: Elliot Right Way Books (27 May 2003).
- How to Write Reports and Proposals (Creating Success) by
Patrick Forsyth, publisher: Kogan Page Ltd; 2Rev Ed edition (3
April 2006).
- Decision Traps: The Ten Barriers to Decision-Making and How
to Overcome Them , by Edward Russo , Publisher: Fireside; First
Fireside Edition edition (October 15, 1990).
166
167
168

كتاب الإدارة بالأرقام

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

كتاب الإدارة بالأرقام

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

 

   

(+9611) 785107   – 

33   )

35   )

39 *+#   )

46 /  ' %   )

47 0  # 1 2   )

48   2 3% 

56 5, "# 6

    :  

85  $ )

101 (Forecasting) #

104 # )

   :  

135 4!# 

! "#$ :  

157 2 # / :, > - +

 

d 9 e- %7` +,- f' %,E, 0I ^'g M90h

 E'- B % 07 I * #7

1  < ?$ ?    9

> * ,.   % ' #

 y O 10I .,NP dI 9O  E M x "A

UF O1   - %R  |W0' y O _0 oR

‫‪  ! "#‬‬

‫      

‫•  *)‪.  ' ( $‬‬

%'1 O y  r5  (> ^ > o7 ,N1 H"F

  

r9G 6,@ !'X/@  )# H> -

B5 :) H,F..."b'W; )P +,- 4 ;  )((E1 o O ^R0

  

(B7L %N7 q b'~9@ 0') '1 "'J DFz#

  ! ! "

'0  .y9` HF I m !"#  " 9N0 49I

)1 U97P R od8 !I +,- N'E ,0 !G1 !"#, S'¨

7+89; <5 =>6 ? !@" :

! ,) 2$ (! 3 4& 5

:! " #$   %&

.((  

U  %<0E= UF O h R %'"F f'7 ¢5

q[ :1 )'1 %P 7", +#E )#(N1 4EPJ

D = D? | 9@ d 'J )7'(N@ 0 l %E= 

UF O1   UP  y9"G _1  I > %N7P

( &   &

F !I 9R9 ¼9/j 4£  ?@ +,- U M90« 4 »

)*+   &

UF O1   UP )'R9@ U-  BW~ |W'  (

%7'7A  .%#F90= %'1¢L ]0 ]9/ d  ) y97P 4 

_0   y O 4v )NP M ,G1 UF O1  

pv q s0 4 UF O1  5 UP !I +,-

 - .   &

!',h %#10 Q5 %R l  70 - !',7@ §# ¨

+! &   &

%'#= K`O %JI %I G U9  70I UF O1

%IG %',-J - BSR9 B7'F B/X dN#@ %'E'] %'# f'7

  3 4

b'W; 6 D(p5 !R  )P  )971 !' I ;7

:! " #$   %&

. ) '  •

DE= %JI :1  9 !G1 UF O1   U1 d0P

!/A  7#  U9-O  U- 

E'7  h dJ

(+9611) 785107 –

33 )

35 )

39 *+# )

46 / ' % )

47 0 # 1 2 )

48 2 3%

56 5, "# 6

:

85 $ )

101 (Forecasting) #

104 # )

:

135 4!#

! "#$ :

157 2 # / :, > -+

d 9 e- %7` +,- f' %,E, 0I ^'g M90h

E'- B % 07 I * #7

1 < ?$ ? 9

> * ,. % ' #

y O 10I .,NP dI 9O E M x "A

UFO1 - %R |W0' y O _0 oR

‫‪ ! "#‬‬

‫

‫• *)‪. ' ( $‬‬

%'1 O y r5 (> ^ > o7 ,N1 H"F

r9G 6,@ !'X/@ )# H> -

B5 :) H,F..."b'W; )P +,- 4 ; )((E1 o O ^R0

(B7L %N7 q b'~9@ 0') '1 "'J DFz#

! ! "

'0 .y9` HF I m !"# " 9N0 49I

)1 U97P R od8 !I +,- N'E ,0 !G1 !"#, S'¨

7+89; <5 =>6 ? !@" :

! ,) 2$ (! 3 4& 5

:! " #$ %&

.((

U %<0E= UFO h R %'"F f'7 ¢5

q[ :1 )'1 %P7", +#E )#(N1 4EPJ

D= D? |9@ d 'J )7'(N@ 0 l %E=

UFO1 UP y9"G _1 I > %N7P

( & &

F !I 9R9 ¼9/j 4£ ?@ +,- U M90« 4 »

)*+ &

UFO1 UP )'R9@ U- BW~ |W' (

%7'7A .%#F90= %'1¢L ]0 ]9/ d ) y97P 4

_0 y O 4v )NP M ,G1 UFO1

pv q s0 4 UFO1 5 UP !I +,-

- . &

!',h %#10 Q5 %R l 70 - !',7@ §# ¨

+! & &

%'#= K`O %JI %IG U9 70I UFO1

%IG %',-J - BSR9 B7'F B/X dN#@ %'E'] %'# f'7

3 4

b'W; 6 D(p5 !R )P )971 !'I ;7

:! " #$ %&

.) ' •

DE= %JI :1 9 !G1 UFO1 U1 d0P

!/A 7# U9-O U-

E'7 h dJ

)'5 m y8O !8 M 9P S''C 6

!G !',h yz> !G 9P h n'

UFO :1 E +,- B"0# () 8 7@

!',h )1 U97P ]0P )'5 !X90P +,- %'( DF

& !

· = yVEP 4 ',-

8( '5 ,X9@ UF %pzp 4I

0 r90E 3/ = UFO +,- q !"#1 ?IO

9O 'E0 7J oR M %N,E M = -

´0P5 > I 490 ^;= 4I n'

U9' 6 ´0P ',> E UO %'R0P5 !;J ¡ .1

UFO ^ %'E/ %,G= - nA1 _0 P1 F I

9N0 U- Q5 4'O [ M BR BN> B

UFO q D$# ]0P UF +,- %9N= %/,0 YN1

.''0 %#90 n' U ^J +,- Dz#@ oR5 .1

UFO ^ !#0 BS'"0 B-( 9 49 4 .1

! + ' *

' /, "*

. •

'h UFO1 f 4 .1E ´9" ©zP

:)@(,N0 J9@ d"F 'N<0 %, .2