Tyndall Briefing Note No.

16
November 2005

‘Dangerous claims’:
Is the way we perceive lead us into economic, social and
environmental ruin. However, recent
climate change leading research and commentary has begun to
examine the utility of this default
to a precautionary approach; questioning whether the
alarmists’ rationale for overselling the
approach or an problem in order to raise awareness may

irrational response? lead to reactions which are out of tune with

the science and reality of climate change
(BBC, 2006; Lowe et al., 2006). Bold
Tom Lowe, Tyndall Centre for warnings lead to even bolder measures; if
Climate Change Research1,
society is to survive it must act – rapidly
Norwich, UK
and radically – by mitigating climate
change and preparing itself for the onset of
massive global change. These kinds of
We are all familiar with the alarming way messages (which have recently been
in which climate change is reported by the dubbed ‘climate porn’ (Ereaut and Segnit,
media, environmental groups and leading 2006)), can instigate a range of negative
popular / political figures. The apparent effects, from fatalism and apathy to
urgency of the problem is manna for rejection and anger.
journalistic prose; a soapbox for political
rhetoric and a socially desirable rallying At the same time it must be considered
call for any, if not all, global citizens. As a that these messages can instigate strong
result, climate change represents for many feelings that something must be done.
a spectre of dread and fear over potentially Precaution and forward thinking, the gifts
catastrophic scenarios which threaten to of human wisdom, are helpful in
forewarning society that it is headed for a
fall. Griffiths and Brake (2003) suggest
1
Tom Lowe is currently affiliated to the that the narrative of fear appears to
Tyndall Centre for Climate Research as an
provide warnings for a new generation who
associate. Formerly of UEA he is now a
Research Associate at the Centre for Risk are now removed from mainstream
and Community Safety, RMIT University,
religions. Many media see themselves as
Melbourne, Australia.
thomas.lowe@rmit.edu.au

Tyndall Briefing Note No. 16 November 2006

performing a social duty, using the issue to many cases, popular claims and media
“inform citizens of the…perils awaiting ‘spin’ amplify the science beyond
society if it persists along a certain proportion. We cannot predict with any
political, moral, social or economic great accuracy how, when or to what
course….[and] enabl[ing] the audience to extent rapid, catastrophic, or runaway
examine a difficult social problem from an climate change will occur. The predictions
informed yet quasi-fictional perspective.” are made nonetheless. At the same time,
(p.8) science, whose post-normal legitimacy
relies upon public endorsement, appears to
The acceptability of various approaches be falling foul of the clamour for greater
towards climate change has become urgency and more competitive results as
increasingly polarized in recent times, as climate scientists stand accused of
mutual accusations of downplaying or publishing exaggerated predictions in order
exaggerated risk, sensationalism, “bad” to attract public attention (Weingart et al.,
science, inciting public hysteria, and even 2000). For example, a report published in
conspiracy abound (Weingart et al., 2000); Nature (Stainforth et al., 2005) detailing
“…scientists politicised the issue, politicians the effect that doubling the amount of
reduced scientific complexities and carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere
uncertainties and the media ignored the would have on temperature, suggested
uncertainties and instead outlined a that, overall, this would lead to an increase
sequence of events that would lead to of about 30C. However, a small percentage
catastrophe” (p.280). Individuals that of the models showed very high levels of
reject climate change, either on grounds of warming - the highest of which was 110C.
poor science, over-hyped reporting or The consequent press release (NERC press
message rejection through defensive release, 2006) only mentioned the
0
processes (i.e. “catastrophic change is significance of the 11 C results, a fact
beyond my control…there is nothing I can which led to hard-hitting and disturbing
do”) may not see precautionary changes to headlines, from "Global warming is twice
the status quo as necessary or indeed as bad as previously thought" to
0
acceptable. However, their ‘heretic’ views "Screensaver weather trial predicts 10 C
are often challenged by an overwrought rise in British temperatures" (BBC, 2006).
and alarmist group who’s stance of
urgency and need for rapid change is a It is apparent that the vast uncertainties
likely catalyst for attack from sceptics and associated with climate modelling
‘naysayers’ (Leiserowitz, In prep.). necessitate a wide range of possibilities,
the extremities of which produce fertile
Indeed, it appears that the public and ground for sensational reporting. However,
political face of climate change may prove whilst this ‘creaming’ of scientific results
ultimately to be its Achilles heel as, in for attention-grabbing headlines is a boon

Tyndall Briefing Note No. 16 November 2006

for interest groups, sceptics and politicians survival inevitably take precedence over a
alike, our understanding of its effect upon threat which looms so large that it is
the lay observer is lacking due to the beyond our focus. Thus, whilst alarmist
absence of any kind of detailed reports and quasi-fictional narratives may
investigation. provide an expression of society's
anxieties, they ultimately refer to a
There is, however, growing concern that hypothetical future, one which may be too
the social construction of the issue of far ahead to warrant immediate concern.
climate change and its amplification by
normative communication channels may be So what should be done? Can this
acting to distance or even remove much of combination of science and media spin act
the lay public from a point at which they as a form of social comment; a moral
feel they can take action. The sparse marker, with man’s own potential to create
empirical evidence appears to support this, change now an even greater threat to
suggesting that whilst ‘shock’ may make society than the Gods or Mother Nature?
compulsive news it may distance Or is this apocalyptic construction akin to
individuals from the reality of the risk, thus ‘climate porn’; purely a way to entice the
reducing the likelihood that they will act to audience, to sell books, papers and films
mitigate the risk (Lowe et al., 2006; with no real intention of persuading the
Lorenzoni et al., 2005; Nicholson-Cole, masses to reform their behaviour and
2004; Bord et al., 1998). This phenomenon mitigate their effects upon the global
is not confined to climate change; Wroe climate?
and Doney (2005) suggest that negative
reporting of Third World conflict and Identifying the middle ground - the point
famine on a biblical scale has produced an at which risk mitigation is both
attitude in wealthier countries that there is precautionary and acceptable, appears to
little point responding to the need because be the challenge for actors from all sectors
it is too great. Subconsciously it is who are aware of the potential for change
assumed that change is impossible, but are also wary of overstepping the
rendering them and us as powerless. boundaries of what is deemed ‘acceptable’.
Values vary culturally and institutionally;
The great paradox is that despite having whilst it may be acceptable to transfer
almost uniform negative connotations risks or adjust systems in the United
among the public, climate change appears Kingdom and Northern Europe, this is
to be a problem that few people are willing unlikely to be the case, for example, in
to pay or change their behaviour to parts of the U.S.A. In addition, the
mitigate. This is evidenced by a general uncertainty that defines climate prediction
unwillingness for the public to move away is set to continue (and even increase)
from the status quo; personal issues of despite improved modeling techniques.

Tyndall Briefing Note No. 16 November 2006

This suggests a need to reflect the Guardian, 2006) accurately identifies, we
uncertainty of the science, not as a means have moved from a position of "denial”
of detracting from the importance of (believing that there is no danger), to one
climate change but in order to eliminate of “despair" (believing that there is nothing
doubt and accusations of spurious claims. that can be done about it), without
stopping in between. In this case, the
Communicating global risk to a global implications of continuing along the current
community is a challenge with limited trajectory need to be explained and
historical precedent and one which shows understood in ways that have real
no immediate signs of success on a scale relevance and meaning for those that are
great enough to have a significant impact. likely to be affected. Climate change is not
What is clear, however, is that the problem an issue of the future in a far away land; it
must be made tangible and manageable if has pervasive social, economic, political
the warnings are to have a real impact. and cultural implications for which society
Given current representations, the should - and ultimately will - have to take
solutions to such a vast and complex into account.
problem make the public’s response seem
insignificant, futile and in some cases too
late to make a difference; as Al Gore (The

References:

BBC, (2006) A load of hot air? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/4923504.stm

Accessed October 9th, 2006.
Bord, R.J., Fisher, A., and O’Connor, R.E. (1998) Public perceptions of global warming: United
States and international perspectives. Climate Research 11: 75-84.
Ereaut, G. and Segnit, Nat (2006) Warm Words: how are we telling the climate story and can
we tell it better? Institute for Public Policy Research (August).
The Guardian (2006) “An inconvenient truth: beware the politician in fleece clothing” Jonathan
Freedland, Wednesday September 13.
Griffiths, M. and Brake, M. (2003) Apocalypse: its influences on society and British science
fiction. Foundation 85. Autumn.
Rogers, R.W. (1983) Cognitive and psychological processes in fear appeals and attitude
change: a revised theory of protection motivation. In Social Psychophysiology: A
Sourcebook, Cacioppo, J.T., Petty, R.E. (Eds.): 153-177. New York, Guilford.
Leiserowitz, T. (In Prep.) Communicating the risks of global warming: American risk
perceptions, affective images and interpretive communities. Draft chapter for S. Moser
and L.Dilling (eds.) Communication and social change: Strategies for dealing with the
climate crisis.

Tyndall Briefing Note No. 16 November 2006

 Lorenzoni, I., Leiserowitz, T., Doria, M., Poortinga, W., Pidgeon, N.F (2005) Cross-national
comparisons of image associations with ‘‘global warming’’ and ‘‘climate change’’
among laypeople in the United States of America and Great Britain. Journal of Risk
Research 9 (3): 265–281
Lowe, T., Brown, K., Dessai, S., Doria, M., Haynes, K., Vincent, K. (2006) Does tomorrow ever
come? Disaster narrative and public perceptions of climate change. Public
Understanding of Science 15 (4): 435-457
NERC press release, (2005) “Bleak first results from the world’s largest climate change
experiment”. Natural Environment Research Council press release (26 January, 2005).
http://www.climateprediction.net/science/pubs/climateprediction_press_release.pdf
Accessed September 2006
Nicholson-Cole, S. (2004) Imag(in)ing climate change: exploring people’s visual imagery,
issue salience and personal efficacy. (Unpublished) Doctoral Thesis, School of
Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich.
Stainforth, D. A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough,
J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J. M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L. A., Spicer,
R. A., Thorpe A. J., & Allen, M. R. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate
response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433: 403-406.
Weingart, P., A. Engels and P. Pansegrau (2000) Risks of communication: discourses on
climate change in science, politics, and the mass media. Public Understanding of
Science 9: 261-283.
Wroe, M. and Doney, M. (2005) The rough guide to a better world: and how you can make a
difference. Department for International Development, UK.

For general enquiries about the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Mr Asher Minns, a.minns@uea.ac.uk
01603 593 906 (07880 547 843)

© Copyright 2004, Tyndall Centre.

You may copy and disseminate this information,
but it remains the property of the Tyndall Centre,
and due acknowledgement must be made.
For further information on this subject please contact:
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Tyndall Briefing Note No. 16 November 2006