OUTLOOK 2010 Recent forecasts from World Future Society for the decade ahead

ILEXX / DIANNA TONEY / KTSIMAGE / SEBASTIAN KAULITZKI / LUIS M. MOLINA / RAFAL ZDEB / TOM BONATTI / ISTOCKPHOTO

INTRODUCTION
New energy sources to get us past peak oil will in-
clude algae, ammonia, compressed air, seawater, and gar-
bage. We’ll no longer buy the same old stuff off the
shelves, but rather download unique designs and then
“print” our own stuff. When we get tired of other
people’s designs, we’ll automatically invent our own.
And our connection to technology will become so inti-
mate that we’ll get a cell phone alert whenever love may
be in the air.
Welcome to the latest edition of the World Future
Society’s annual Outlook report, in which the editors
have selected the most thought-provoking forecasts and
ideas appearing in THE FUTURIST over the past year.
These forecasts are not “predictions” of what the future
will be like, but rather glimpses of what may happen or
proposals for futures that we could aspire to. Use these
forecasts to inspire your own thinking about tomorrow
and its myriad prospects.
The opinions and ideas expressed here are those of
their authors or sources cited and do not necessarily
­represent the views of the World Future Society. For more
information, please refer to the original articles cited. Back
issues of THE FUTURIST, as well as additional copies of
this Outlook report, may be purchased using the coupon
in this report or online at www.wfs.org/backiss.htm.
As always, your feedback is welcome. Please e-mail
your comments to letters@wfs.org.
THE EDITORS

INSIDE OUTLOOK
Business and Economics............... 2
Energy............................................ 2
Environment and Resources.......... 3
Government.................................... 4
Habitats.......................................... 4
Health and Medicine....................... 5
Information Society......................... 6
Lifestyles and Values...................... 7
Science and Technology................. 8
Work and Careers.......................... 8
World Affairs................................... 9
OUTLOOK EXTRAS:
◆ Extreme Measures for the
Environment.............................. 3
◆ Wild Cards................................. 5
◆ Algae Futures............................ 7
◆ Jobs for Tomorrow..................... 9

©2009 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved. Printed in U.S.A.
OUTLOOK 2010
BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
l Future workers will
earn the same any-
where in the world.
Companies will likely
cast broader nets in hir-
ing. European firms, for
instance, are increas-
ingly strained to find
qualified job applicants,
according to Karlheinz
Steinmueller, scientific PHOTODISC
director of Z_punkt Gmbh, The Foresight Company. So
a worker would earn the same money in Australia,
­Sweden, and Japan, Steinmueller believes.  — “Seeing the
Future Through New Eyes,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 56
l Medical tourism could be a boon for global health
care, already a $40-billion business with 780 million
patients. Michael Zey, author of Ageless Nation, says
that a $400,000 bone marrow transplant in the United
States would cost only $30,000 in India. “When you
have international competition from more affordable
hospitals in one country, it’s likely to impact what hos-
pitals in another country would charge,” says Zey.   roof. Solar-powered cars never really caught on, but so-
— “Seeing the Future Through New Eyes,” Nov-Dec 2008,
p. 57
l The future smells like marketing. Aromas travel di-
rectly to the brain’s emotional centers, according to sci-
entists. Perceptions registered by other centers travel
through interpretive brain centers first and then arrive
at the emotional centers. “Our relatively recent under-
standing of the prominence and influence of scent in our
lives is rapidly changing the paradigm of how we mar-
ket, sell, and deliver products and services to consum-
ers,” says C. Russell Brumfield, author of Whiff.   sity of Birmingham have their way. Under certain cir-
— World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 9
l Runaway inflation could lead to barter econo-
mies. In Zimbabwe, the inflation rate has climbed more
than 2 million percent, causing Zimbabweans to use
gasoline coupons as a makeshift currency. Similar barter
schemes may be expected in other nations if hyperinfla-
tion takes hold.  — Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 2
l The world’s lender nations must learn to borrow.
The world economy is out of balance, according to econ-
omist Martin Wolf. If the global community wants to
avoid future recessions, it will have to move from hav-
ing a few large-scale debtor nations toward having an
equilateral flow of capital. The United States will have
to borrow less, while other nations should become open
to more U.S. loans.  — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr
2009, p. 7
2 OUTLOOK 2010
ENERGY
l Ammonia may become
the fuel of choice for
cars by 2020. As a candi-
date source for hydrogen
used in fuel cells, ammonia
(comprising one nitrogen
and three hydrogen atoms)
is plentiful, easier to liq- BEN MILLS / FORESIGHT INSTITUTE
uefy than methane, and emits nitrogen rather than car-
bon, thus having fewer negative impacts on the cli-
mate.  — J. Storrs Hall, “Ammonia, the Fuel of the Future,”
Sep-Oct 2009, p. 10
l Engines running on compressed air may cut en-
ergy costs. Scientists at Sandia National Laboratories
say that compressed air energy storage facilities (CAES)
could help relieve the world’s energy woes. The air
would be driven into the underground geological for-
mations during low-demand times. Several U.S. utilities
are considering building CAES.  — Tomorrow in Brief,
Nov-Dec 2008, p. 2
l The next big trend in car design will be the solar
lar cells on the tops of cars, working in conjunction with
fuel cells, may be the next big thing to hit the automo-
tive showroom. Already the Volkswagen Space-Up Blue
concept car, the independently manufactured Aptera,
and the Fisker Karma feature optional solar panels on
the roofs of the vehicles working with, or in the place of,
lithium-ion batteries.  — Ken Harris, Feedback, Nov-Dec,
2008, p. 4
l Your lights may run on trash. Bacteria could con-
vert trash into hydrogen fuel if scientists at the Univer-
cumstances, microorganisms can release hydrogen into
the environment. According to futurist Garry Golden,
the 170 million tons of garbage that the United States
currently incinerates or sends to landfills each year
could potentially provide about 2.4% of the nation’s en-
ergy needs, or 93.9 billion kilowatts.  — World Trends &
Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2009, p. 18
DONNA COVENEY, MIT / COURTESY OF NSF
l Practical, affordable 
— and colorful — solar
energy could be on
the market within
three years. Most
large-scale solar-power
operations use rotating
mirrors to follow the
path of the sun and channel it into solar cells. An MIT
team believes they’ve found a more efficient solution:
dyed windows. The dye particles focus the light to the
 Outlook Extra: Extreme Measures to Save the Environment?
Radical methods may be the only way to prevent the
worst effects of global climate change, according to
growing numbers of futurists.
For example, saving species whose habitats have be-
come uninhabitable may require hands-on approaches
such as direct relocation. Natural evolution doesn’t al-
low enough time for some fragile species to adapt to
environmental changes, so some scientists are creating
guidelines for managed relocation of species. — World
Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2009, p. 7
Reversing climate change itself has inspired poten-
tial megascale “geoengineering” projects such as send-
ing space mirrors into orbit, sequestering carbon in the
ground in biomass charcoal, and increasing the
amount of carbon that the ocean can absorb by forcing
plankton blooms in the seas. — Jamais Cascio, “Last Re-
sort Solutions to Global Warming,” May-June 2009, p. 8
edges of the windows where it’s concentrated. Less
semiconducting material is needed to harvest energy
there, and the solar cell stays cooler, negating the need
for elaborate cooling systems.  — World Trends & Fore-
casts, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 8
l Powered by sea water. Affordable and reliable
electricity from the ocean might be possible with the
­VIVACE, a new machine built by University of Michigan
engineer Michael Bernitsas. This system, which works
by creating vortices in ocean water and capturing their
power, has the added benefit of posing less risk to ma-
rine life than present-day dams and water turbines.   down from more than
— Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2009, p. 2
l No more oil to export? The five nations responsible
for half the world’s oil supply — Iran, Norway, Russia,
Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — are pro-
jected to be near net-zero exports — i.e., no more oil to
sell — by 2031. Oil exports from all oil-producing na-
tions are currently declining by 2.5% a year. Importing
nations should expect this decline to continue and pre-
pare now for the day when this highly sought commod-
ity is no longer on the market.  — Chris Nelder, “Oil Ex-
ports May Soon Dry Up,” Mar-Apr 2009, p. 6
ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES
l The oceans may rise 75 meters (246 feet) by the
end of the century, putting coastal cities like New
York at risk. Dennis Bushnell, chief scientist at the
NASA Langley Research Center, predicts that the earth’s
Atmospheric physicist John Latham and engineer
Stephen Salter offer a more-extreme technology to help
reverse the warming trends: a “cloud-seeding” ma-
chine that would blast seawater droplets into the atmo-
sphere and cause clouds to whiten, which would cause
them to reflect more sunlight back into space. With less
sunlight hitting the surface, Latham and Salter hope,
the earth’s climate could stabilize long enough for us
to find a clean source for most of our energy needs. 
— Patrick Tucker, “Saving the Planet, One Cloud at a
Time,” Mar-Apr 2009, p. 68
Geoengineering may be inevitable. Even if humans
could instantly reduce all greenhouse gas emissions,
global temperatures would continue to increase for the
next 20–30 years, triggering feedback loops and more
warming. — Jamais Cascio, author of Hacking the Earth,
reviewed by Bob Olson, July-Aug 2009, p. 51
temperature could easily increase as much as 14˚C.
Aside from flooding, other potential problems from ris-
ing sea levels include beach erosion, loss of wetlands,
and increased salinity of estuaries.  — “Seeing the Future
Through New Eyes,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 59; Tomorrow in
Brief, July-Aug 2009, p. 2
l African elephants
may become extinct
by 2020. The African
elephant population is
now less than 470,000,
1 million when ivory
trading was first
banned in the late
1980s. But poaching
continues, and the
death rate for the re-
maining elephants has PHOTODISC
surpassed 8% per year, according to University of Wash-
ington biology professor Samuel Wasser.  — Tomorrow in
Brief, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 2
l Iceless Arctic summers will be the norm by 2040.
The ice extent in the ocean will shrink to 1 million
square kilometers (620,000 square miles) from 4.6 mil-
lion square kilometers today. The new projection, from
climate watchers at the University of Washington and
NOAA, pushes forward previous climate forecasts for
this phenomenon by 60 years.  — World Trends & Fore-
casts, July-Aug 2009, p. 14
OUTLOOK 2010 3
OUTLOOK 2010
l One rare greenhouse gas is becoming more com- tion may be forced to enact price controls.  — Peter Schiff,
mon. Solar energy has one environmental downside, ac- quoted in “Assessing Global Trends for 2025,” July-Aug
cording to University of California–San Diego geochem- 2009, p. 33
istry professor Ray Weiss: It is a source of nitrogen
trifluoride, or NF3, a greenhouse gas 17,000 times more
effective than carbon dioxide at trapping atmospheric HABITATS
heat. Atmospheric NF3 has been increasing by 11% a PHOTOS.COM
year, due to its widespread use in the production of l Suburbanites
­solar cells, LCD televisions, and computer circuits.   will feel economic
— World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2009, p. 10 downturns hard-
est. In hard eco-
l Resource scarcity will likely cause vital commod- nomic times, sub-
ities to become more expensive. The World Resources urbanites may feel
Institute refers to this as ecoflation and warns that com- especially removed
panies could see profits fall drastically if they fail to de- from essential city
velop strategies that deal with the environmental costs services. They may
of doing business.  — Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2009, p. not know how to
2 find the nearest
clinic or food cen-
ter. A new study
GOVERNMENT from the Univer-
sity of Illinois
l Small governments will eclipse big governments shows that the number of poor people moving to the
as a threat to privacy/liberty. According to U.S. Cen- suburbs has been increasing since 1990 even as many
sus Bureau statistics, there are close to 90,000 local gov- suburban townships have reduced or eliminated ser-
ernments in the United States (school districts, special vices.  — Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2009, p. 2
districts, municipalities, and townships), each of which
may find ways to exert influence over individuals in l Improved urban design could create not only
ways that distant big government never could.  — World healthier environments, but also healthier inhabi­
Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2009, p. 8 tants. As city populations grow around the world, mod-
els for improving the quality of life will be based on in-
l Power and influence will shift away from the tegrating natural landscape within the city (e.g.,
United States and toward Asia by 2025. The National community gardens), thus reducing the negative effects
Intelligence Council forecasts that U.S. influence will of high-density dwellings.  — Cliff Moughtin et al., authors
wane in the next two decades as China, Russia, and of Urban Design, reviewed by Aaron M. Cohen, Sep-Oct
other Asian countries accumulate more power and 2009, p. 54
wealth. China GDP is projected to average 7% for 2009,
as opposed to flat yearly growth for the United States.   l The number of artificial islands will increase,
— Patrick Tucker, “Assessing Global Trends for 2025,” some as extensions of existing countries, others to
July-Aug 2009, p. 30 create new micronations. Currently, the most techno-
logically advanced artificial island projects are found in
l Consumption of goods in the United States will Dubai. However, a few farsighted developers have ex-
return to historically normal levels as the millennial perimented with accelerating coral growth to build arti-
generation comes of age. While the short-term fore- ficial reefs and islands in mid-ocean and other methods
cast for the consumer-led U.S. economy is slow-to-flat of creating new land.  — McKinley Conway, “The Case for
growth, normal consumption patterns should reemerge Micronations and Artificial Islands,” May-June 2009, p. 31
as more of the millennial generation exits college, enters PETIT ST. VINCENT
the workforce, and develops the appetite for, and capac- l Artificial-island
ity to, purchase goods.  — Elaine Kamarck, quoted in “As- micronations will
sessing Global Trends for 2025,” July-Aug 2009, p. 33 dramatically shift
the face of global
l The United States will likely experience hyperin- politics. New forms
flation, resulting in social upheavals. When the U.S. of government and
government can’t sell U.S. debt to anyone but its own unusual political
Federal Reserve banks, hyperinflation will destroy the models will begin to
U.S. bond market, the price for goods and services emerge, including
across the country will accelerate, and the administra- corporate nation-

4 OUTLOOK 2010
states, religious states, tax-free zones, single-function
countries, cause-related countries, and even rental na-
tion-states, where organizations can “rent a country” for
a year or two to test a specific project.  — Thomas Frey,
“New Nation Predictions,” May-June 2009, p. 35
C.G. WAGNER
Outlook Extra: Wild Cards
Wild cards are high-impact, low-probability events that would
have dramatic consequences (for better or for worse) if they ac-
tually occurred. Here is a short selection of reader-submitted
wild cards, so think about how best to prepare for them.

l Artificial intelligence displaces service workers, starting

with service employees working from a distance rather than
hands-on. Such a change could lead to massive layoffs, forced
early retirements, and substantial reduction in service jobs.

l The food-supply chain is disrupted. An interruption in the

l Future cities could be car-free. Cities around the
world are employing car taxes, innovative urban design,
and new alternative transportation plans to decrease car
traffic. Highly populated Singapore mandates that cars
carry electronic sensors and then charges the drivers ev-
ery time they enter the city. The mayor of Paris hopes to
cut traffic in his city 40% by 2020 through a city-spon-
sored bicycle-rental program.  — Lester R. Brown, “Cities
Battle Auto Dominance,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 10
global food-supply system could have devastating conse-
quences, eliminating a large percentage of available foods while
driving costs up on the remaining options. Having readily
available local alternatives that enable us to bypass the central-
ized industrial agriculture chain would be one way to offset
such a tragedy.
l Global cooling occurs. Conventional climate models pro­
ject only warmer temperatures, but new research based on
wind patterns over the oceans indicates the possible emergence
of a rapid mini Ice Age in the next few years. This would raise
havoc with agriculture and economies, and result in worldwide
social and political upheaval.

l Intelligent alien life is confirmed. Declassified information

HEALTH AND MEDICINE reveals reports of alien species that have made contact with
Earth. Scientific evidence emerges as well. The presence of alien
l Devices that life would have profound effects on humanity.
monitor your
health will up- — “Wild Cards in Our Future,” May-June 2009, pp. 18-24
load data about
your activities
to the Internet.
l Nanotechnology will allow us to fix our ailing or-
A small device
gans from the inside out. Nanotechnology, or the ma-
called FitBit
nipulation of objects smaller than a billionth of a meter
tracks how fast
in size, will allow us to repair sick cells inside our bod-
you’re walking,
ies, reboot our brains, and even reanimate dead tissue,
your heart rate,
according to cryonics advocates.  — David Gelles, “Immor-
even how well
tality 2.0,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 39
you’re sleeping
and then up-
l Alternative medicine will become mainstream.
loads that infor-
Rising numbers of patients are supplementing — or re-
mation directly COURTESY OF FITBIT placing — their conventional medical treatments with
to a publicly viewable
herbal supplements, meditation, yoga, and other forms
database. The idea may
of “alternative” healing. Hospitals are listening — more
ring of Orwell, but tech-
than 37% of U.S. hospitals now integrate complemen-
nology watchers like
tary and alternative services with conventional proce-
Tim O’Reilly forecast
dures.  — Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2009, p. 2
that the most interesting
computer applications
l People will improve mental health through video
in the years ahead will
games. If you suffer from low self-esteem, reprogram-
involve sensors.  
ming yourself through video-game play may come to
— World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2009, p. 9

OUTLOOK 2010 5
OUTLOOK 2010
the rescue. A set of online games developed by McGill
University psychologist Mark Baldwin helps the brain
form more positive patterns of thought. The games are
based on neuroscience research showing the effects of
social rejection and acceptance on the physical brain.  
— World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2009, p. 9
l Your doctor will give you constant, online check-
ups. Faster Internet speeds will allow doctors to moni-
tor their patients around the clock in their patients’
homes. The Outpatient Health Monitoring System uses
wireless sensors to constantly monitor asthma patients
and check environmental factors in the patients’ home,
like the presence of allergens, pollution, or humidity.   cident. Young people will get used to being constantly
— World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2009, p. 13
l The Internet will put hard-to-reach medical spe-
cialists in the palm of your hand (or in your chest).
Benjamin Berg, a Hawaiian heart doctor, dictated a com-
plicated heart surgery over an Internet feed for a man
3,500 miles away in Guam. Berg monitored every move
and heartbeat of the patient via sensors embedded in
the catheter that had been inserted into the patient’s
heart.  — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2009, p. 13
l New artificial skin could be produced rapidly us-
ing factorylike techniques. Tissue engineering may
help produce artificial skin, cartilage, and other body
parts quickly and in large quantities, thanks to research
at Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute for Interfacial Engi-
neering and Biology. The result could mean improved
treatment for burn victims using skin grown in laborato-
ries, as well as the creation of tissue that is suitable for
chemical testing, thus avoiding experiments on ani-
mals.  — Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2009, p. 2
INFORMATION SOCIETY
l Your phone will tell you when you’re in love. Mo-
bile devices are enabling new spontaneous connections
in real-world settings, including love connections. One
day soon, your phone will play matchmaker, recom-
mending that you introduce yourself to someone nearby
whose online profile displays tastes or passions similar
to yours. Impossible? An iPhone application called Ser-
endipity is currently being commercialized by MIT re-
searchers.  — Erica Orange, “Mining Information from the
Data Clouds,” July-Aug 2009, p. 17
l Sensors, digital maps, and new information tech-
nology breakthroughs will enhance our view of ev-
eryday reality. Google Earth pictures of a given neigh-
borhood, combined with real-time RFID data of what
the people in that neighborhood are buying, could re-
veal important details of that neighborhood: the num-
bers of smokers, young people, parents with infants, etc.
6 OUTLOOK 2010
Readily accessible data about places and objects, cou-
pled with future IT advances, will create a more sophis-
ticated digital world that mirrors our own.  — Jamais
­Cascio, “The Singularity Needs You,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 25
l Lifelogging technologies will ensure that every
moment of existence is recorded. New systems to re-
cord the life histories of objects and users will enhance
observations, recall, and communication. One example
is a Georgia Institute of Technology “smart home,”
which watches you cook so you don’t miss a step, moni-
tors your prescription drugs for you, and alerts your
loved ones and medical professionals if you have an ac-
on display in what might be called the participatory
panopticon.  — Jamais Cascio, “The Singularity Needs You,”
Nov-Dec 2008, p. 25
l Japan and its neighbors will dominate the next
phase in Internet growth. Median download speed in
the United States was 5 megabits per second (Mbps) in
2007. Median speeds were 49 Mbps in South Korea and
63 Mbps in Japan. Experts contend that Japan and its
neighbors have positioned themselves to be the first
states to reap the benefits of the broadband era: eco-
nomic growth, increased productivity, and technological
innovation.  — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2009, p.
13
l As the number of mobile phones increases, new
programs and services will help us make sense of
our environment. Globally, mobile phone penetration is
expected to reach 75% by 2011. As mobile phones re-
place the PC as the primary device for getting online,
new services such as Whrrl, Buddycloud, Brightkite,
and Loopt will enable users to get more real-time infor-
mation about their immediate environment.  — Erica
­Orange, “Mining Information from the Data Clouds,” July-
Aug 2009, p. 17
l With your eyeglasses as a dashboard, more data
will be available at a glance. An interactive chip in the
lens will display data and respond to your commands.
Images will actually be projected onto your retina, so
they will appear several feet in front of you instead of
on the lens.  — Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2009, p. 2
l The number of U.S. jobs filled by telecommuters
could grow nearly fourfold to 19 million by 2012.
Wider broadband will bring the office home, giving
workers and employers more flexibility. Research shows
that if all Americans improved their broadband connec-
tion, allowing for more telecommuting, the result would
be a 4% reduction in carbon-dioxide emissions, $5 bil-
lion saved in lower road expenditures, and 1.5 billion
commute hours recaptured.  — World Trends & Forecasts,
July-Aug 2009, p. 13
 WARREN GRETZ / NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY PAT CORKERY / NREL

Outlook Extra: Algae Futures

Futurists’ attention is increas-

ingly being drawn to the slimy
world of microalgae. Here’s why:

Algae might be the antidote to

our dependence on oil. These mi-
croorganisms can potentially pro-
duce 5,000 gallons of fuel per acre,
which could meet perhaps 30%–
60% of U.S. oil needs, according to
Dennis Bushnell, chief scientist at
the NASA Langley Research Cen-
ter, speaking at the World Future
Society’s 2008 conference. — “Seeing
the Future Through New Eyes,” Nov-
Dec 2008, p. 59
According to researchers at a De-
partment of Energy plant in New
Mexico, single-celled microalgae,
grown in pond water, produce a
biofuel that is lead-free and biode-
gradable, emits two-thirds less car-
bon dioxide and other pollutants
than gasoline, and can run any
modern diesel engine. Even better,
algae require only a fraction of the
land area of biofuel-producing crops. JACK DEMPSEY / NREL
An added benefit is the cleansing
power of algae. Power plants that
plan to filter their emissions via ex-
pensive carbon-sequestration sys-
tems might consider growing algae
instead. According to the DOE re-
searchers, algae pond cultures con-
sume more than 90% of carbon di-
oxide in the pond water, as well as
water-based nitrogen oxide, sulfur
dioxide, and some heavy metals.
Growing algae farms next to ing new revenue from the sale of
power plants could save millions of algae-based biofuels. — Robert
dollars now spent on pollution- McIntyre, “Algae’s Powerful Future,”
control equipment, while also creat- Mar-Apr 2009, p. 25

LIFESTYLES AND VALUES 5,000. University of Georgia gerontologist Leonard Poon

l Young people will read more, and the old will play
more video games. The 2007 American Time Use Sur-
vey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed some
surprising findings. In 2007, adults aged 75 and older
spent nearly twice as much time playing video games
(about 20 minutes) as they did in 2006. Teens aged 15–19
spent twice as much time reading as they did before
(about 14 minutes) and less time using a computer for
games or casual surfing.  — World Trends & Forecasts,
Nov-Dec 2008, p. 14
l Only two-thirds of American households will own
cars in the decades ahead, down from seven-
eighths today. In the post–Great Recession era, most
new housing will be built in conjunction with high-den-
sity, mixed-use, and other in-fill developments clustered
around rail-transit stations throughout an increasingly
urbanized nation.  — David Pearce Snyder, “A Rendezvous
with Austerity,” July-Aug 2009, p. 44
l The population boom to watch now: centenari-
ans. For the first time in history, adults aged 100 or
older are a fast-growing population group. Most indus-
trialized countries now average one centenarian per
10,000 residents, but the figure is moving toward one in
looked at common threads among the centenarians he
interviewed: They exercised regularly, ate breakfast
daily, consumed carotenoids and Vitamin A in large
amounts, and didn’t smoke.  — World Trends & Forecasts,
Nov-Dec 2008, p. 12
l Saudi school programs are educating students
about the dangers of terrorism. These programs are
designed to raise awareness in much the same way that
American school programs warn students about the
dangers of using recreational drugs. Students are en-
couraged to participate in essay contests and art compe-
titions on topics related to the dangers of extremism,
and the government also supports other youth activi-
ties, including organized sports and athletic events.
Such endeavors can lure children away from the ideo-
logical summer camps and religious retreats run by ex-
tremist groups.  — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June
2009, p. 12
l Neuroscience and virtual reality will yield pro-
found new insights into the nature of right and
wrong. Technologies like functional magnetic resonance
imaging (fMRI) are already exposing the neurological
roots of race bias and deception. In the future, moral sci-
ence will converge with virtual reality, allowing people

OUTLOOK 2010 7
OUTLOOK 2010
to role-play their reactions to different moral situations,
yielding individuals new opportunities to discover the
roots of their decision-making processes.  — Patrick
Tucker, “Reinventing Morality,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 24
l Beer guzzling will decline. Alcohol consumption in
the United States has dropped over the past 50 years,
led by beer consumption, according to a team of re-
searchers from the Boston University School of Medi-
cine. The researchers attribute the long-term decline to
growing public awareness of the ill effects of heavy
drinking, which has been linked to cardiovascular and
liver problems.  — Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 2
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
l The era of brain-to-brain telepathy dawns. Neuro-
scientist David Poeppel says that telepathic communica-
tion between brains is possible, so long as “communica-
tion” is understood to be electromagnetic signals and
not words. Technologies like magnetoencephalography,
which pick up the various signals the brain sends out,
could be used to pick up specific signals and convey
them. If you could train your brain to signal in Morse
code, sensors in a helmet could pick up the message and
send it to another helmet.  — Patrick Tucker, “Reinventing
Morality,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 23
l In the design economy of the future, people will
download and print their own products, including
auto parts, jewelry, and even the kitchen sink. Rapid
prototyping, or 3-D printing, and devices like the
­RepRap self-reproducing printer are allowing people to
design, customize, and print objects from their home
computers. In the future, cheaper versions of these de-
vices could disrupt manufacturing business models, re-
sulting in far cheaper products individually tailored to
every customer’s desire.  — Thomas A. Easton, “The De-
sign Economy,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 43
MIT HAYSTACK OBSERVATORY
l The existence
of extraterrestrial
life will be con-
firmed or conclu-
sively denied
within a genera-
tion. New space
missions and ad-
vanced computer
technology could
confirm the existence of extraterrestrials soon. Scientists
using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope have found that
at least 20% — and perhaps as many as 60% — of Sun-
like stars could have rocky planets. Among the more
than 300 extra-solar worlds already discovered, proba-
bly one has some form of life, according to Dimitar
8 OUTLOOK 2010
­ asselov, an astronomer and director of Harvard Uni-
S
versity’s Origins of Life Initiative.  — Gregory Georgiou,
“The Real Life Search for E.T. Heats Up,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 20
l At home, 3-D printers will alter online shopping
from selling stuff to selling designs for stuff. Christ-
mas shoppers in 2024 will buy printable files that down-
load directly to 3-D printers in their homes. Amazon
and other online retailers will also sell the “fabbers”
and the cartridges of raw materials needed to print
things.  — Thomas A. Easton, “The Design Economy,” Jan-
Feb 2009, p. 43
l Tomorrow’s inventors will spend their days writ-
ing descriptions of the problems they want to solve,
and then letting computers find the solutions. Inven-
tion programs like Gregory Hornby’s “evolutionary al-
gorithm” have been used to invent real-world objects,
such as a special space antenna, based entirely on engi-
neering specifications. Continued advances will increas-
ingly rely on cross-fertilization between the fields of
­biology and computer science. As a result, we will de-
velop not only software that can produce better inven-
tions but also inventions that are able to adapt to their
environments.  — Robert Plotkin, “The Automation of In-
vention,” July-Aug 2009, p. 24
WORK AND CAREERS
l Talent shortages will undermine economic recov-
ery. As the global economy becomes more dependent on
technology, workers will need more proficiency in sci-
ence, technology, engineering, or mathematically based
(STEM) jobs. To produce these talented workers, the U.S.
education system needs to work with community-based
organizations and NGOs to improve training for tomor-
row’s careers.  — Edward Gordon, “The Global Talent Cri-
sis,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 38
l Professions will become hyperspecialized. As
professional and academic fields become more and
more specialized, the current subspecialization trend
may lead to hyperspecialization. For example, a surgeon
may only repair knees injured during the playing of
football. There are already significant knowledge gaps
and communication difficulties between specialties and
subspecialties, and these divides will only become
larger and more difficult to surmount.  — Bruce L. Tow
and David A. Gilliam, “Synthesis: An Interdisciplinary Dis-
cipline,” May-June 2009, p. 43
l U.S. senior citizens are postponing retirement
due to financial concerns. Even before the recession,
large numbers of baby boomers and pre-baby boomers
who had not actually saved enough for retirement were
unexpectedly compelled to return to the labor force.

Outlook Extra: Jobs for Tomorrow
Hottest jobs for 2016:
- Network systems and data communications ana-
lysts (53.4% more U.S. employees than in 2006)
- Personal and home care aides (up 50.6%)
- Home health aides (up 48.7%)
- Computer software engineer (up 44.6%)
- Veterinary technologist/technician (up 41.0%).
Coldest jobs for 2016:
- Photographic processing machine operator
(49.8% fewer U.S. employees than in 2006)
- File clerk (down 41.3%)
- Sewing machine operator (down 27.2%)
- Electrical and electronic equipment assembler
(down 26.8%)
- Computer operator (down 24.7%).
 — “U.S. Employment Ups and Downs, 2006-2016,”
Sep-Oct 2009, p. 30
Now, many more may opt to simply stay in their
jobs.  — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2009, p. 16
l The recession could cause the U.S. labor force to
grow. An increase in the U.S. labor force means that more
people will be competing for jobs in the short term, add-
ing to stress on U.S. job seekers. Increased competition
also means that the U.S. labor force will become more ef-
ficient as vacancies are filled by higher caliber employees.   raising grave concern about unemployment. If the
— World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2009, p. 16
WORLD AFFAIRS
l Terrorism might be thwarted with rehab. Jihadist
rehabilitation programs have sprung up in nations from
Saudi Arabia to Singapore. Providing psychiatric and re-
ligious counseling to imprisoned jihadists is becoming a
standard part of counterterrorism efforts. Because these
methods address the underlying intellectual and ideo-
logical factors of extremism, they may ultimately prove
more effective than strong-arm approaches.  — World
Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2009, p. 12
l China, Russia, and other nations will rise to chal-
lenge U.S. status as sole superpower. The influence
and power of the United States may decline in the next
decade and a half, but this will not be a decline in eco-
nomic, political, or military strength. Rather than the
United States enjoying the role of the world’s lone
­superpower, the influence of other countries such as
India and China will increase in relative terms.  — Newt
Gingrich, quoted in “Assessing Global Trends for 2025,”
July-Aug 2009, p. 31
l More international organizations will participate
in cross-border activities to monitor digital fund
transfers. Electronic funds-transfer systems handle
more than $6 trillion in wire transfers daily, but lax over-
sight makes such systems ripe for money-laundering ac-
tivities. The growing speed and interconnectivity of dig-
ital transactions adds to the difficulty of tracing money
transfers, particularly across borders.  — Stephen Aguilar-
Millan, Joan E. Foltz, John Jackson, and Amy Oberg, “The
Globalization of Crime,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 48
l A broad conflict between India and Pakistan
could result in nuclear war. This development, in turn,
would force other nations to align themselves with ex-
isting nuclear powers for protection. Experts such as
former House Speaker Newt Gingrich point out that the
2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai escalated tensions con-
siderably between the nations.  — Patrick Tucker, “Assess-
ing Global Trends for 2025,” July-Aug 2009, p. 31
l China will become the world’s largest economy,
based on GDP, prior to 2025. The United States will
fall behind Japan and will no longer be in the top 20
countries in terms of per capita GDP. China will shift
from an export economy to consumer-driven economy,
and Japan will shift most of its export trade away from
the United States to China.  — Peter Schiff, quoted in “As-
sessing Global Trends for 2025,” July-Aug 2009, p. 35
l Saudi Arabia’s output of oil may plateau in 2020,
Saudis and other oil-producing countries fail to diversify
their economies, they will struggle to house, feed, edu-
cate, and employ future generations.  — Roger ­Howard,
“Peak Oil and Strategic Resource Wars,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 19
l The prospect of peak oil could lead producer
countries to become more insular, guarding their
dwindling resources from outside influences. But it
could also lead these countries’ governments to become
more transparent and democratic, as corruption will be-
come intolerable to citizens.  — Roger Howard, “Peak Oil
and Strategic Resource Wars,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 20
l Information warfare based on disruption rather
than destruction will be a significant component of
all future wars. Vital infrastructure systems ranging
from energy to transportation are increasingly intercon-
nected, creating more points of entry for intruders. As
many as 120 governments are already pursuing infor-
mation warfare programs.  — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen
Davies, “World War 3.0: Ten Critical Trends for Cybersecu-
rity,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 40
OUTLOOK 2010 9
 Tomorrow Is Built Today
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