By

Systems Assessment Group

NDIA Strike, Land Attack and Air Defense Committee

October 1998
 By
Systems Assessment Group
NDIA Strike, Land Attack and Air Defense Committee

October 1998

3
 Agenda

Page
• Introduction 5

• Historical Developments and Technology Migration 13

• Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry 43

• Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule 63

• Candidate LRBM Configurations 81

• Summary 107

10/1/98 5
 Study Objectives

• Assess feasibility of Third World countries to develop/acquire LRBM

capability
• 3000km - 10000km

• Assess the time required to develop/acquire LRBM capability

• One or two demonstrated test articles
• Politically effective capability (as few as three missiles)
• Fully deployed military capability

• Assess the feasibility of launching warheads of mass destruction

• Assess implications on defense

• Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) policy

10/1/98 7
 Study Approach

• Review lessons learned from historical missile development

programs
• WW II Germany, North Korea, Iraq
• Development time and motivation
• Strategic objectives for LRBMs with WMD warheads

• Assess potential range growth of evolving family of Third World

TBM threats

• Conduct Third World Threat Analysis

• Technology assessment
• Development forecast

• Assess Candidate LRBM Configuration Alternatives

• Space launch vehicle conversion
• TBM stacking / clustering

10/1/98 9
 Definitions

TERM DESCRIPTION CRITERIA

TBM TACTICAL BALLISTIC MISSILE <150 km

SRBM SHORT RANGE BALLISTIC Up to 1,000 km
MISSILE
MRBM MEDIUM RANGE BALLISTIC 1,000 - 3,000 km
MISSILE
IRBM INTERMEDIATE RANGE BALLISTIC 3,000 - 5,500 km
MISSILE
ICBM INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC >5,500 km
MISSILE
LRBM LONG RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILE 3,000 - 10,000 km
CM CRUISE MISSILE RANGE NOT SPECIFIED
SLBM SUBMARINE LAUNCHED RANGE NOT SPECIFIED
BALLISTIC MISSILE
LRCM LONG RANGE CRUISE MISSILE <3,000 km
INF TREATY INTERMEDIATE RANGE NUCLEAR LIMITED PERFORMANCE &
FORCES TREATY NUMBERS OF TBMs & CMs
(EUROPEAN THEATER)
START STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION BILATERAL US-RUSSIAN
TREATY NUCLEAR FORCES REDUCTION
SALT STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION BILATERAL US-RUSSIAN
TALKS NUCLEAR FORCES REDUCTION

10/1/98 11
 Agenda

Page
• Introduction 5

• Historical Developments and Technology Migration 13

• Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry 43

• Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule 63

• Candidate LRBM Configurations 81

• Summary 107

10/1/98 13
 Historical Analysis Objectives

• Understand the critical event structure & timelines of early ballistic

missile development programs

• Describe technologies required to meet mission requirements in

early missile programs

• Describe innovative solutions that enabled early rapid ballistic

missile development

• Describe the spread of ballistic missile capability over the past 50

years tracing its technology and system development genealogy

10/1/98 15
• WW II Germany

• North Korea

• Iraq

17
 Key Ingredients of the German Program

• Political/Cultural Climate
• Rocket development not constrained by Versailles treaty
• Autocratic rule
• Warring factions within the Nazi party for control of ballistic missile program
• 1920’s Weimar Republic had strong interest in rocketry and space flight
• Use of slave labor
• Technological and Strategic Surprise
• Early recognition of the value of ballistic missiles for maximizing surprise (1929)
• Extreme secrecy of the program - first large “black” program
• Suppression of German amateur rocket societies for security reasons (1933-34)
• Speed of Development
• National priority / significant funding resources available
• Excellent domestic industrial skill base to develop required technologies
• Rapid prototyping using technology demonstrators
• Test / Fail / Fix / Re-Test / …….

Many
Manyof
ofthese
thesekey
keyingredients
ingredientsare
arefound
foundin
inThird
ThirdWorld
World programs
programs
10/1/98 19
 German ICBM Design

A9/A10 Manned A9
10/1/98 Source: “Secret Wonder Weapons of the Third Reich”, J. Miranda, P. Mercado, Schiffer Military/Aviation History, 1996 21
 Design for Use of Chemical/Radiological Payloads

Payload Compartment

10/1/98 Source: “Vengeance. Hitler’s Nuclear Weapon. Fact or Fiction?”,Phillip Henshall,Alan Sutton Publishing Ltd., 1995 23
 Alternative Concept for Attacking North America

Project Lifevest
10/1/98 25
Source: “Secret Wonder Weapons of the Third Reich”, J. Miranda, P. Mercado, Schiffer Military/Aviation History, 1996
• WW II Germany

• North Korea

• Iraq

27
North Korean Ballistic Missile Programs

• 1975 ~ DF-61 Program with China Terminated

• 1981 ~ Egypt Supplies Scud-B Missiles for Evaluation

• 1984 ~ Scud-B Mod A Tested

• 1985 ~ Scud-B Mod B Tested

• 1987 ~ Scud-B Mod B Exported to Iran

• 1989 ~ Scud-B Mod C Deployed

• 1990 ~ Nodong-1 Program Underway

• 1993 ~ Nodong-1 Tested

• 1995 ~ Taepo Dong 1 and Taepo Dong 2 Programs Underway

• 1996 ~ Nodong-1 Exported to Iran

• 1998 ~ Nodong Technology Incorporated in Pakistani Ghauri

• 1998 ~ Potential Space Launch/LRBM Capability Demonstrated

29
• WW II Germany

• North Korea

• Iraq

31
 Iraqi Ballistic Missile Programs

• 1970s -- Iraq receives first Scud-B ballistic missiles from

USSR (813 imported by 1990)
• 1982 -- First Iraqi Scud-B attack on Iran
• 3 August 1987 -- Al Husayn tested (500 km range)
• February - April 1988 -- 189 Al Husayn missiles fired in
“war of the cities”
• 25 April 1988 -- Al Abbas missile fired on Tehran (860 km)
• 1980-1988 -- Total of 361 Scud-B and Al Husayn missiles
fired in Iran-Iraq war
• 5 December 1989 -- Successful launch of Al Abid SLV
• 7 December 1989 -- Tammuz 1 SLV announced (2,000 km
range)
• 1991-- Desert Storm saw 88 Al Husayns fired
• 1997 -- Iraq announces Al Hamid ballistic missile (150 km
range)

33
 Genealogy of Technology Transfer After WWII

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

• V-2 (A-4 SRBM) India

• Personnel • SA-2 SAM (Back Engr to SRBM) • U.S. Scout Solid Rocket Technology
• Technology USSR
• Facilities
USSR CIS
• R-17 (SCUD B SRBM)
Germany FRG FRG Iraq
• Funding for Condor 2 MRBM • Badr 2 MRBM (Based on Condor 2)
• Personnel
• Technology Argentina
• Vector IRBM (Terminated)
Egypt
• SS-1B
• • R-17 (SCUD B SRBM)
• T Per
s (SCUD B) North Korea
ec on • R-17 (SCUD B) • Funding • SCUD B • SCUD C Production
hn n
o l el Iran
og
y • SCUD B • SCUD C (Transshipped)
• V-2 (A-4 SRBM)
• Personnel • R-1 (V-2 copy) Syria
(Von Braun & team) • R-2 (SS-2 SRBM)
• Technology • Technology
Libya
Peoples Republic of China
• DF-3 (CSS-2 IRBM)
• People South Afr Saudi Arabia
(H.S. Tsien Deported) • Jericho 2 / RSA-3
Israel
• People/Technology
France
• Technology

10/1/98 United States 35

 International Technology Transfer

Technology Recipients
Israel India Egypt Iraq Pakistan Iran Libya Saudi Syria
Arabia

Trained Personnel/Advisors NL, US AT, DE, ES, AR, AT, BE, CL, EG, CN KP DE DE, PK,
CH, SU, US FR, DE, LI, KP, CN, CN, US
CH, US, SU

Reentry Vehicles DE, CH, US CL, EG, FR, DE, LY, CN CL

SU US

Technology Suppliers
Ballistic missile Propulsion AT, BE, FR, DE, IT, CN, KP CS, IR, IT
LI, CH, US LY, SU

Guidance/Navigation ZA, TW BR, FR, DE, US HK, JP IL, CN

US
Flight Controls BR, DE HK, JP

Production Assistance FR, DE AR, DE, KP AR, AT, BE, BR, EG, DE, CN KP, CN DE DE CS, DE,LY
NL, US SA, CH, US FR, DE, IT, MC, KP KP, SA,SU
CN, CH, GB, US, SU

Materials Manufacture US DE, LI, GB, US CA, FR,

CH, US

Computers US SA, CH, US DE NO, GB US

Testing/Ranges ZA MR

Notes: (1) This information was extracted from the International ballistic missile Proliferation Project database, compiled by the Monterey Institute of International studies under
the direction of Dr. William C. Potter and Dr. Edward J. Laurance. It is a compilation of open source material and covers only reports of actual deliveries and transfers since
1989. The table does not include information relating to proposals, offers, negotiations, or orders (unless clear transfers have resulted).
(2) The two-letter codes used in this table are the American National Standard Institute (ANSI) international country codes, defined as follows: AR - Argentina, AT -
Australia, BE - Belgium, BR - Brazil, CA - Canada, CH - Switzerland, CL - Chile, CN - China, CS - Czechoslovakia, DE - Germany, EG - Egypt, ES - Spain, FR -
France, GB - United Kingdom, HK - Hong Kong, IL - Israel, IR - Iran, IT - Italy, JP - Japan, KP - North Korea, LI - Liechtenstein, LY - Libya, MC - Monaco, MR - Mauritania,
NL - Netherlands, NO - Norway, PK - Pakistan, SA - Saudi Arabia, SU - Soviet Union, TW - Taiwan, US - United States, ZA - South Africa.
10/1/98 37
 Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)

• Missile technology non-proliferation partnership formed in

1987 as a voluntary agreement between members
• United States and G-7 partners were original members
• Current membership totals 29 countries
• Objective is to restrict proliferation of ballistic missiles,
cruise missiles, UAVs, and related technologies
• Applies to systems carrying payloads of 500 kg or greater
• System ranges of 300 km or greater
• Includes all warhead categories -- conventional or NBC
• NOT intended to impede national space programs or int’l
cooperation in such programs
• Restricted technologies include
• Complete ballistic missile/cruise missile/UAV systems and some
subsystems
• Production facilities
10/1/98 39
 What MTCR Doesn’t Control

• MCTR does not “control” anything. Its signers

agree to exercise “restraint”. There are not even
restraints on the following:
• Transfer of missiles and components from non-signatory
states (e.g., North Korea and China)
• Emigration of scientists, engineers and technicians
• Technical education in sciences and engineering which
provides missile skills

10/1/98 41
 Agenda

Page
• Introduction 5

• Historical Developments and Technology Migration 13

• Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry 43

• Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule 63

• Candidate LRBM Configurations 81

• Summary 107

10/1/98 43
 Third World Countries with Ballistic Missiles *

3000 km
N. Korea

Iraq
Syria 3000 km
Libya
Israel Iran
China Taiwan
Saudi
Arabia Vietnam
India

Egypt
Yemen
Pakistan

Brazil

South Africa

Argentina
* Greater than 90 km range
10/1/98 45
 Third World Weapons Options Favor Missiles
Country Ballistic Cruise Aircraft Ground Naval
Missiles Missiles Systems Systems

Rocket Launcher
Helicopters
SRBM’s 1

Bombers
Fighters
LRBM’s

Surface
Tactical

Ground

Artillery

Mortar

SSN’s
SSK’s
Sea
Air
Expected Mission
Success
Yes Limited No No No

China X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

India X X X X X X X X X X

Iraq X 2 X X X X X

Iran X X X X X X X X X X

Israel X X X X X X X X X

Libya X X X X X X X X

North Korea X X X X X X X X X

Pakistan X X X X X X X
10/1/98 1 500 km range or less 47
2 Currently banned under UN Gulf War resolutions
 Third World Indigenous Capabilities

Israel India Egypt Iraq Pakistan Iran Libya Saudi Syria

Arabia
Human Resources

Ballistic missiles

Space

Technical Artillery

Resources Ordnance

Aircraft

Electronics

Test Resources

Substantial capability: Modest capability: Rudimentary capability:

• Large numbers of experts • Some experts and • Few experts or
and technicians technicians technicians
• Indigenous manufacturing • Spare parts manufacturing • Repair and refurbishment
• Instrumented test ranges • Component test/ground test • Limited test facilities

Reference: “Rest of World (ROW) Response to GPALS:

Technology and Industry Bases”, Strategic Defense Initiative Organization, June 1992

10/1/98 49
 Current Third World Ballistic Missile Capabilities

Country Missile System Status Propulsion Launch Payload Range

Weight (kg) Weight (kg) (km)
China CSS-1 (DF-2A) 1966 IOC L 26,000 1500 1250

CSS-2 (DF-3) 1971 IOC L/L 64,000 2000 2650

CSS-2 (DF-3A) 1986 IOC L/L 64,000 2150 2800

CSS-3 (DF-4) 1978 IOC L/L 82,000 2200 4750

CSS-4 (DF-5A) 1986 IOC L/L 183,000 3200 13000

CSS-5 (DF-21A) 1987 IOC L/L 14,700 600 1800

DF-25 Reported Stopped S/S/S 2000 1700

DF-31 1996 IOC S/S/S 700 8000

DF-41 Under Dev. S/S/S 800 12000

India Agni I Flight Tested S/L 16,000 1000 >2000

Agni II Dev. Initiated S/S 1000 3000

Iran Shihab 3 Flight Tested L 750 1700

Shihab 4 Early Stages of Dev. S 1000 3000

Shihab 5 Engaged Effort 3000+

Labour 1 L
(No Dong 1 import)

Labour 2 In Dev. L/L

(No Dong 2 joint effort)
10/1/98 51
 Current Third World Ballistic Missile Capabilities (Cont)

Country Missile System Status Propulsion Launch Payload Range

Weight (kg) Weight (kg) (km)
Iran Tondar 68 Dev. Prototype L or S 500 700-1000
(cont.) (Iran 700)

Zelzal –3 S 1000-1500
(modified M-11)

M-18 S 700-1000
(import form China)
Iraq Al Abid Dev. Cancelled L/L 48,000 2000

Tammuz 1 Dev. Cancelled 750 2000

Badr 2000 Dev. Cancelled (Joint 450 900

Iraq, Egypt,Argentina
effort)
Israel Jericho 2B (YA-2B) S/S 1300

Jericho 3 1990 IOC S/S 29,000 1000 4800

North NoDong 1 Flight Tested L 21,000 800 1300
Korea (aka Rodong-1)

Taepo Dong 1 In Dev. / Poss. 1 Flt Test L/L 21,000 1000 1500-2000
(aka No Dong 2, Rodong-2)

Taepo Dong 2 Engaged Effort L/L 1000 3,500-6000

Pakistan Ghauri/Mk III One flight test L 500-750 1500
Saudi CSS-2 1988 IOC L 65,200 1900 3100
Arabia (imported from China)

10/1/98 53
 Selected Countries with
Ballistic Missile Development Programs

• Argentina 1 • Iraq 3
• Brazil 1 • Israel
• China • Libya 2
• Egypt 2 • North Korea
• India • Pakistan
• Iran • Saudi Arabia 4
• South Africa • South Korea

1 Development efforts in-abeyance or cancelled

2 Currently only involved in short range weapon systems
3 Development efforts interrupted as result of Gulf War
4 Deployment of CSS-2 IRBM’s only

10/1/98 55
 Potential Iranian LRBM Coverage

90

60
Launch Point
30

6000 km
-30
8000 km

-60 10000 km

-90
-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180

10/1/98 57
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Development Program Schedule
Oghab M7 Export of
Program Ranges (km) IOC Fajir-3 Fajjir 3
∆ Acquired
∆ ∆ ∆
45-200 km Oghab/Nazeat etc RDT&E Mushak-120/160/200
Manufacturing Export to
∆ Combat ∆ Capability Syria
∆ ∆
Use
300 km Scud-B/Shahab-1
Test Test
Fire∆ Fire
∆
"Tondar-68"
700 km Tech Demonstrator (Iran-700) ???????
RDT&E
Manufacturing
Delivery
∆ Capability
∆
600 km Scud-B Mod C/Shahab-2
Test Manufacturing
Fire Delivery Capability
∆ ∆ ∆
1,200 km Nodong-1
M11 Engine Flight
Acquired Tests Test IOC ?
∆ ∆ ∆
1,400 km Shahab-3/Zelzal-3 RDT&E IOC ?
∆
2,000 -2,500 km Shahab-4
RDT&E
Al Husayn
SS-20
Technology IOC ?
Technology ∆
Transfer
3,500 - 5,500 km ∆ Transfer (?)
SS-4
"Shahab-5"
DF-3A
Technology Technology
Transfer IOC (Target Date)
∆
Transfer (?)
5,500 - 10,000 km ∆ ∆ "Shahab-6"
SS-12
Technology
Transfer ∆

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Project Flower
Extensive Chinese & NK
Israeli Technology Transfer
Technology Transfers
from YA-2 (Jericho 1 Follow On)
59
 Potential North Korean LRBM Coverage

90

60
Launch Point

30

6000 km
-30
8000 km

10000 km
-60

-90
-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180

10/1/98 61
 Agenda

Page
• Introduction 5

• Historical Developments and Technology Migration 13

• Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry 43

• Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule 63

• Candidate LRBM Configurations 81

• Summary 107

10/1/98 63
 Challenges to Third World LRBM Development

Obvious
Obvious limitations...
limitations...
(1) Access to Critical Technologies -- MTCR and economic sanctions
(2) Engineering and manufacturing infrastructure -- old facilities
(3) Missile system integration skills -- limited technical manpower
...may be mitigated by innovative shortcuts:
...

National top-
priority funding
Clustering & Stacking
existing short range Off-the-shelf components
ballistic missile propulsion (acceptable risk)

Existing structural materials

Simple flight programmer and techniques
with GPS-aided navigation
Foreign Technical
Assistance in Spite of MTCR
10/1/98 65
 Key Technical Challenges

• Propulsion Systems
• Liquids
• Ground handling and loading of propellants -- toxicity & volatility
• Valves and flow control for predictable burnout
• Solids
• Propellant grain consistency (motor-to-motor)
• Dangerous large grain mix, pour, and cure
• Structures
• Design, fabrication, and assembly of truss structures and interstages
• Cluster/stack integration
• Dynamic load margins throughout flight
• Control Electronics
• Accurate navigation, timing, sensing of booster variations
• Staging
• Power supplies and thermal control for LRBM duration flight

10/1/98 67
 Key Technical Challenges (Cont)

• Reentry Systems
• Payload packaging for high deceleration shock loads
• Stable dynamic shape design and balancing techniques
• Thermal protection against heating loads at LRBM reentry
velocities
• Fusing for payload detonation/dispersal at desired altitude
• System Test and Verification Technology
• Onboard system performance instrumentation
• Telemetry electronics and antennas (ballistic missile and
range)
• Flight data analysis tools

10/1/98 69
 Critical Technologies

• High Energy Propellants

• Light Weight Subsystems
• Dynamic Structures Design and Analysis
• Aerodynamic Heat Protection Materials
• Advanced Flight Dynamics Control Systems
• Multi-Stage Separation and Ignition
• Payload Separation and Stabilization
• Payload Reentry Survival
• Warhead Fusing
• Guidance and Control Computers
• GPS/INS Platforms
• Flight Test Tracking and Telemetry
• High Fidelity Computer Simulation
• Test Range Availability
10/1/98 71
 Required Engineering Development Infrastructure
• Technical Expertise
• System design engineering
• Fabrication methods
• Materials & processes
• Flight mechanics
• Guidance & control
• Modeling & simulation
• Flight Test
• Range
• Range instrumentation
• Data analysis
10/1/98
• Industry
• Propellant processing and handling
• Propulsion subsystems
• Electro/mechanical control systems
• Structures manufacturing/assembly
• Materials processing
• Electronics production
• Precision guidance fab. & assembly
• Computer hardware and software
73
 Third World Development Time Compression

Accelerating Missile Development Iran’s Missile Program Evolution

• Combines imported systems with indigenous
Missile Performance

+ Expertise development and testing

• Extensive use of foreign expertise
? + Technology and
Subsystems • Steady range growth beyond regional
? requirements
Indigenous
Development 6000 Shahab-6 ?
?

Range (km)
Development Time
3000 Shahab-5 ?
Desired
Desired Missile
Missile Capability
Capability can
can be
be attained
attained
by
by aa combination
combination of
of development
development “investments”
“investments” Shahab-4 ?
that
that may
may be
be hard
hard to
to identify
identify Zelzal/Shahab-3
1000
?? Critical
Critical Unknowns:
Unknowns: Nodong-1
1)
1) Level
Level of
of missile
missile technology
technology at
at “start
“start point”
point” Tondar-68
2)
2) Foreign
Foreign assistance
assistance to
to expedite
expedite system
system Shahab-1
integration
integration of
of acquired
acquired components
components
1985 90 95 2000 05
10/1/98 75
 Development Time Estimate

Years to First Flight

Development
Option 1 2 3 4 5
Earliest Possible Launch

• Buy Russian ICBM

Most Likely First launch

• Buy & Convert Space

Launch Vehicle

• Cluster/Stack Existing ?
Missiles

?
• Design/Build Booster -
Stack Existing Missile
for Upper Stage
?
• Design/Build Entire
Missile

10/1/98 77
 Effective Time to Respond

Years from First Launch

Development
Option -3 -2 -1 1 2 3
?
• Buy Russian or Chinese ICBM

• Buy & Convert Space Program Start ?

Launch Vehicle
?

• Cluster/Stack Existing Program Start Earliest launch

Missiles Most Likely First launch

• Design/Build Booster - Program Start

Stack Existing Missile
for Upper Stage
Program Start
• Design/Build Entire
Missile

First
FirstIndicator
Indicatormay
maybe
beFirst
FirstTest
TestLaunch!
Launch!
10/1/98 79
 Agenda

Page
• Introduction 5

• Historical Developments and Technology Migration 13

• Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry 43

• Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule 63

• Candidate LRBM Configurations 81

• Summary 107

10/1/98 81
 Options for LRBM Development

• Buy LRBM (MRBM, IRBM, ICBM)

• Buy & Convert Space Launch Vehicle

• Cluster/Stack Existing Tactical Missiles

• Design/Build Booster - Stack Existing Missile for Upper Stage

• Design/Build Entire Missile

10/1/98 83
 Available IRBMs

Missile Payload(kg) Range(Km) Warhead Country IOC

• DF-3/DF-3A 2000/ 2150 2800 Conv./ NBC China 1971/ 1986

CSS-2 1900 3100 Conv. Saudi Arabia 1988
• CSS-3 2200 4750 Conv./ NBC China 1978
• DF-25 2000 1700 Conv./ NBC China Dev. Stop 1996

• Agni 1 1000 2000 Conv. India 1998

• Agni 2 1000 3000 Conv./ NBC India 2002?

• Shahab 4 1000 3000 Conv./ NBC Iran 2002

• Shahab 5 ? ? Conv./ NBC Iran 2005?

• Jericho 3 1000 4800 Conv./N? Israel 2000?

• TD-1 1000 1500-2000 NBC N.Korea 1998?

• TD-2 1000 2000-4000 NBC N.Korea 1998?

10/1/98 85
 Options for LRBM Development

• Buy LRBM (MRBM, IRBM, ICBM)

• Buy & Convert Space Launch Vehicle

• Cluster/Stack Existing Tactical Missiles

• Design/Build Booster - Stack Existing Missile for Upper Stage

• Design/Build Entire Missile

10/1/98 87
 CIA Assessment of SLV-LRBM Conversion

•• Only
Onlyunique
uniqueballistic
ballisticmissile
missile
technology
technologyisisthe
thewarhead
warhead
•• RV,
RV,separation,
separation,guidance
guidance&&
control,
control,and
andstrap-on
strap-onbooster
boosterSLV
SLV
technologies
technologiesmay
maybebeadequate
adequate
•• Staging,
Staging,propellants,
propellants,airframe,
airframe,
engines,
engines,thrust
thrustcontrol,
control,and
and
nozzles
nozzlesare
arethe
thesame
sameasasSLV
SLV

Solid Propellant Liquid Propellant

SLV ICBM
Figure from 5/14/98 CIA briefing; as depicted in
Aviation Week & Space Technology, June 1, 1998.

10/1/98 89
 Indian ASLV Conversion

ASLV

• • Propulsion
PropulsionConfiguration
Configuration
• • 4-stage
4-stagesolid
solidpropellant
propellantbooster
booster(SLV-3)
(SLV-3)
• • 22strap-on
strap-onrocket
rocketmotors
motors
• • Space
SpaceLaunch
LaunchCapability
Capability
•• Launch
Launchweight
weight 39,000
39,000kg
kg 23.6 m X
•• Payload
Payloadweight
weight 150
150kg
kg
•• Orbit altitude 400 km 1.0 m. Dia.
Orbit altitude 400 km
•• Inclination
Inclination 46
46degrees
degrees
• • Ballistic
BallisticMissile
MissileCapability
Capability
• • Launch
Launchweight
weight 40,000
40,000kg
kg
• • Payload
Payloadweight
weight 1000
1000kg
kg
• • Range
Range(NRE)
(NRE) 4,000
4,000km
km

From Jane’s Information Group

Drawing from Federation of American Scientists:

10/1/98 http://www.fas.org/spp/guide/india/launch/aslv.htm 91
 Israeli SHAVIT Conversion

SHAVIT SLV
• • Propulsion
PropulsionConfiguration
Configuration
• • 3-stage
3-stagesolid
solidpropellant
propellantbooster
booster
(based on Jericho 2)
(based on Jericho 2)
• • NEXT,
NEXT,slightly
slightlylarger
largerfollow-on
follow-on
• • Space
SpaceLaunch
LaunchCapability
Capability
•• Launch 14 m. X
Launchweight
weight 29,000
29,000kg
kg
•• Payload weight 800
Payload weight 800 kgkg 1.56 m. dia.
•• Orbit
Orbitaltitude
altitude400
400km
km
•• Inclination
Inclination Polar
Polar
• • Ballistic
BallisticMissile
MissileCapability
Capability • •Demonstrated
Demonstrated
• • Launch
Launchweight
weight 29,000
29,000(est.) 160
(est.) 160kgkgpayload
payload
toto207
207 x1587
x
• • Payload
Payloadweight
weight 1,100
1,100kg
kg 1587kmkm
elliptical
• • Range ellipticalorbit
orbit@@
Range (NRE) 5,000-7,000km
(NRE) 5,000-7,000 km 143
143degree
degree
retrograde
retrograde
inclination.
inclination.
From Jane’s Information Group

Jerico 2 From Federation of American Scientists web site:

http://www.fas.org/spp/guide/Israel/launch/index.htm

10/1/98 93
 Japanese M-3 or M-5 Conversion

•• The
TheM-3
M-3space
spacelaunch
launchvehicle
vehicle
M-5 SLV
“family”could
“family”could be convertedinto
be converted intoananIRBM
IRBM
with a 500+ kg payload and a range of 9 m.
with a 500+ kg payload and a range of
4,000+
4,000+km.km.The
TheJapanese
JapaneseGovernment
Governmenthas has
officially refuted this allegation. *
Insulated payload
officially refuted this allegation. * faring &
•• The
TheM-5
M-5isisaathree-
three-or
orfour-stage,
four-stage,solid
solid
Third stage w/ ENEC
propellant
propellant launch vehicle designedto
launch vehicle designed to & TVC
carry payloads of 2,000 kg to 200 km;
carry payloads of 2,000 kg to 200 km;
1,200
1,200kg
kgto to500
500km
kmand
and800
800kg
kgto
toGTO.
GTO.* * 6.7 m
•• Three-stage
Three-stageversion
versionshown:
shown:
• • Length 2nd stage w/ ENEC &
Length==31.0
31.0mm
• • Diameter TVC
Diameter==2.5
2.5mm
• • Launch
Launchweight
weight==130,000
130,000kg
kg
13.7 m
M-5
M-5LRBM
LRBMperformance
performancehas
hasnot
notyet
yetbeen
beenassessed
assessed
1st stage w/
movable nozzle
From Jane’s Information Group

Source: Jane’s Strategic Weapons

10/1/98 95
 Options for LRBM Development

• Buy LRBM (MRBM, IRBM, ICBM)

• Buy & Convert Space Launch Vehicle

• Cluster/Stack Existing Missiles

• Design/Build Booster - Stack Existing Missile for Upper Stage

• Design/Build Entire Missile

10/1/98 97
 Two Feasible LRBM Designs

Liquid Solid

• • Clustered
ClusteredCSS-2
CSS-2ballistic
ballisticmissiles
missiles • • Clustered
ClusteredM-9 M-9ballistic
ballisticmissiles
missiles
Stage
Stage11----33CSS-2’s
CSS-2’s Separate Stage
Stage11----77M-9’s
M-9’s
Stage at burnout Separate
Stage22----11CSS-2
CSS-2 Stage
Stage22----33M-9’s
M-9’s at burnout
Stage
Stage33----11M-9M-9
Payload
Payload----1000
1000kg kg Payload -- 750 kg
Payload -- 750 kg
Guidance -- 150 kg Guidance
Guidance -- 150 kg Guidance----150150kg kg
Launch
LaunchWeight
Weight----255,400
255,400kgkg Launch
LaunchWeight
Weight----59,000
59,000kgkg
Reentry
ReentryAngle
Angle----30 30degrees
degrees Reentry
ReentryAngle
Angle----3030degrees
degrees
Time
Timeof
ofFlight
Flight----46.5
46.5minutes Time
minutes TimeofofFlight
Flight----28.5
28.5minutes
minutes
Range
Range----10,000
10,000km km Range -- 6,500 km
Range -- 6,500 km

10/1/98 99
 Design Issues Considered in Assessment

• RV structure & materials for 30 degree

reentry
• Payload separation at booster
burnout; G&C stays with spent upper
stage
• Interstages between booster stages
sized for flight loads at increased
diameter 2nd Stage
(1 Stacked
• Revised raceways and electrical DF-3)
system wiring
• Guidance subsystem increased power
and cooling
• Truss structure for clustered rocket
motors 1st Stage
(3 Clustered
• Extendible nozzle exit cones (upper
DF-3s)
stages only)
• Booster separation mechanisms
• Booster thermal protection for aero
loads and motor nozzle heat
10/1/98 101
 Range Sensitivity to Payload Weight

Nominal payload/range performance of modeled LRBMs

12000

10000

8000
Range (km)

6000 M -9 C luster
C SS-2 C luster
4000

2000

0
500 750 1000 1250 1500 2000
Payload Options (kg)
10/1/98 103
 Evaluation Methodology

• AS-2530 Flight Simulation Code

• 3 - degrees of freedom
• Non-rotating spherical earth
• Standard atmospheric properties
• Powered ascent flight profile
• Vertical launch
• Instantaneous pitchover
• Gravity turn
• Payload separation at booster burnout
• Payload flight profile
• Keplarian free flight
• Keplarian reentry
• No reentry angle of attack
• Missile characteristics
• Nominal ballistics
• Nominal weights
• Estimated drag properties
10/1/98 105
 Agenda

Page
• Introduction 5

• Historical Developments and Technology Migration 13

• Trends in Third World Ballistic Missile Weaponry 43

• Threat Development on a Compressed Schedule 63

• Candidate LRBM Configurations 81

• Summary 107

10/1/98 107
 Summary

• Third World Countries are capable of achieving LRBM capability

• Innovative technical shortcuts may be used for different national goals
• Political or coercive vs military capability
• Time to First Flight may be much earlier than currently anticipated
• Time from observed threat to first launch may be very short
• MTCR is not stopping missile technology proliferation
• Developed countries are currently marketing critical ballistic missile
technologies, systems, and personnel

The
TheTime
TimeBetween
BetweenInescapable
InescapableEvidence
Evidenceof ofaa
Developing
DevelopingThreat
Threatto
toWhen
WhenThat
ThatThreat
ThreatisisFielded
FieldedMay
May
be
beLess
LessThan
Thanthe
theTime
Timein
inWhich
WhichWe
WeCan
CanRespond
Respond

10/1/98 109