Professional Documents
Culture Documents
220
180
140
100
Private Sector Banks
60
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07
Bankex Sensex
Source: ENAM Research, Bloomberg
Sector summary
CMP Mkt. Cap P/E P/BV ROE (%) Tgt Price Upside Relative to
(Rs) (USD mn) FY08E FY09E FY08E FY09E FY09E (Rs) (%) sector
ICICI Bank 1,046 28,985 19 13 1.7 1.4 11.1 1,284 23 Outperformer
HDFC Bank 1,420 12,701 34 26 4.3 3.8 15.4 1,502 6 Underperformer
Axis Bank 728 6,567 28 20 3.0 2.7 14.2 937 29 Outperformer
CBoP 45 2,075 53 37 3.8 3.5 9.9 46 2 Underperformer
Yes Bank 193 1,371 32 20 4.0 2.8 16.8 - - -
Federal Bank 367 794 8 7 1.7 1.4 22.3 428 17 Outperformer
Source: ENAM Research , Note : Prices as on 9 October 2007. P/E and P/B of ICICI Bank are calculated after deducting the value of investments
Punit Srivastava
punit@enam.com (+91 22 6754 7609) October 10, 2007
1
Table of Contents
Slide No.
 Sector Review 3
 ICICI Bank 8
 HDFC Bank 17
 Axis Bank 23
 CBoP Bank 29
 Yes Bank 35
 Federal Bank 41
 Annexure 47
 Historical Performance: New Private Banks 49
 Historical Performance: Old Private Banks 53
 Current Performance 55
2
Key Events expected in FY08
 RBI unlikely to ease in the near term, interest rates still seen peaking out
Tight monetary policy likely to continue for next six months with real test of inflation starting from November onwards
Appreciating rupee, due to huge dollar inflows, may continue to force RBI to follow a tight monetary policy
However, the recent increase in MSS limit to Rs 2 trillion may allay the fear of an imminent CRR hike
Despite the tight monetary policy, interest rates likely to be stable with a downward bias
 Banks that will raise fresh capital this fiscal include Yes, ING Vysya, Federal & Dhanalakshmi
Centurion Bank of Punjab & South Indian Bank have already raised capital in Sep 2007
Among Larger Banks, ICICI, HDFC and Axis have already raised capital in June/July 2007
 Credit growth expected to slow down to ~22% after growing by 26-30% in last three years
Slowdown largely due to moderated growth in retail segment
No major signs of slowdown in corporate, rural and overseas loans
3
Outlook for FY08
Headline Inflation
 Expect inflation to remain low till Nov 2007 7
Inflation for the week ended 22nd Sept-07 was 3.42% (%)
6
RBI has set a medium term target of 4-4.5%. Assuming
0.1% weekly rise
Expected to inch up from Oct- 07 though unlikely to go above 5% till Mar 2008 5
4
 Moderation in credit to restrict interest rates from rising further
Banks are reducing deposit rates but credit rates largely untouched 3
However, some banks have decided to cut mortgage rates
2
Corporate lending rates largely untouched
Nov-06
Nov-07
May-07
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Mar-07
Jan-08
Sep-06
Sep-07
 Cut in deposit rates to help support NIMs
NIM of most banks were under pressure in Q1FY07
NIM may continue to be under pressure in Q2FY07 due to deposit re-pricing YoY growth in credit vs. deposits
However, recent cuts in deposit rates to support NIM after 2-3 quarters 35
(%)
4
Private Banks: From growth to profitability
 With loan growth slowing, more focus on NIMs
ICICI Bank to focus more on NIMs with slowing retail loan growth
HDFC Bank – focusing more on SMEs & corporates, Axis Bank likely to sustain growth momentum on lower base
Smaller banks like Centurion, Yes & Kotak likely to sustain growth momentum
ING Vysya to start seeing a pick up with renewed top management vigor
Regional private banks also likely to grow 20-25% this fiscal
 Superior quality growth in assets and earnings to mask low ROE on account of equity dilution
Almost all private banks have raised or will be raising equity capital this fiscal
ROE likely to remain low for next two years, though likely to pick up from FY10 onwards
P/BV looking attractive as most dilutions are substantially book accretive
Valuations higher on P/E terms due to substantial equity dilution
Valuations unlikely to be affected due to lower ROE – especially for HDFC Bank & Axis Bank
5
Comparative Valuations
Valuations summary
CMP Mkt. Cap P/E P/BV ROE (%) Tgt Price Upside Relative to
(Rs) (USD mn) FY08E FY09E FY08E FY09E FY09E (Rs) (%) sector
ICICI Bank 1,046 28,985 19 13 1.7 1.4 11.1 1,284 23 Outperformer
HDFC Bank 1,420 12,701 34 26 4.3 3.8 15.4 1,502 6 Underperformer
Axis Bank 728 6,567 28 20 3.0 2.7 14.2 937 29 Outperformer
CBoP 45 2,075 53 37 3.8 3.5 9.9 46 2 Underperformer
Yes Bank 193 1,371 32 20 4.0 2.8 16.8 - - -
Federal Bank 367 794 8 7 1.7 1.4 22.3 428 17 Outperformer
Source: ENAM Research , Note : prices as on 9 October 2007
2.5 Axis Bk 25
P/E (x)
2.0 20 Yes Bk
Axis Bk
1.5 15
1.0 ICICI Federal
10 ICICI
0.5 5 Federal
0.0 0
5 10 15 20 25 5 10 15 20 25
RoE (%) RoE (%)
Source: ENAM Research
6
Private Banks
7
India Research
Stock Data
ICICI Bank
No. of shares : 1,111.7mn
Market cap : Rs 1,163bn
52 week high/low : Rs1,125/ Rs673
Avg. daily vol. (6mth) : 2.5mn shares
Bloomberg code : ICICIBC IN
Reuters code : ICBK.BO
Rs 1,046
Shareholding (%) Jun-07 QoQ chg
Relative to Sector: Outperformer Target Price: Rs.1,284
FIIs & NRIs : 45.9 0.9
ADRs : 24.9 (1.6) Potential Upside: 23%
Banks / FIs : 11.6 (0.4)
MFs/UTI : 5.0 0.6
Others : 12.6 0.5
Relative Performance
220
180
140
100 Opportunity, among short term fears
60
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07
BANKEX ICICI
Financial summary
PAT EPS BV P/BV Leverage P/Banking P/E P/E NPAs RoE RoE on
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) (Rs.) (Rs.) (x) BV BV (x) banking (%) (%) Banking BV(%)
2006 25,400 28.5 250 4.2 205 3.1 36.6 22.3 0.7 16.2 16.0
2007 31,102 34.6 270 3.9 222 2.9 30.2 18.4 1.0 13.4 15.9
2008E 42,457 38.2 424 2.5 384 1.9 27.4 18.8 1.5 11.9 13.4
2009E 54,264 48.8 456 2.3 417 1.4 21.4 12.2 1.5 11.1 12.8
Punit Srivastava
punit@enam.com (+91 22 6754 7609) October 10, 2007
8
ICICI Bank: Investment Summary
 Well positioned to capitalize on rising corporate & overseas demand after the retail boom
Credit book still expected to grow at ~25% driven by rural credit and overseas lending
NIM expected to improve on the back of USD 5bn equity dilution
Fee-based income projected to grow at a CAGR of ~35% for next two years
 A play on fast growing financial services like Insurance, asset management, securities etc.
ICICI – Prudential, the leading private life insurer, 74% being held by ICICI Bank– valued at USD 9.4bn – Rs 249 p/s
ICICI – Lombard, leader in private non-life space, 74% being held by ICICI Bank– valued at USD 1.1bn – Rs 31 p/s
Asset Management business, second largest Mutual Fund – valued at USD 500m – Rs 19/s
Overseas Subsidiaries, held 100% by ICICI, valued at USD 2bn – Rs 77 p/s
Others including I-Sec, ICICI Ventures, First Source etc. valued at Rs 48 p/s
 Total value of investments at Rs 451 p/s, SOTP gives a price target of Rs 1284
Value of all investments estimated at Rs 530 per share, if we take USD 11bn transaction of the holding company
Value of investments likely to grow multi-fold in next 3-5 years
 Stock quoting at of 1.4x FY09E Banking BV, after adjusting for the value of investments
9
ICICI Bank: Background
 Largest Private Bank with total asset size of USD 88bn ICICI Bank: Break of Deposits
950 branches (including 48 ECs)
(Q1FY08)
3,470 ATMs Term
36,000 employees Deposits
9%
 Incorporated in 1994 as a subsidiary of ICICI (75%)
The bank came out with its IPO in Sep-1997 at Rs 35 per share. Current
Account
First Indian Company listed on NYSE in Sep 1999
Savings 77%
Acquired Bank of Madura in Feb 2001 and Sangli Bank in Dec 2006 Account
14%
 Leadership position in most retail segments
Enjoys 25-30% market share in Mortgages, Auto and Personal
loans
ICICI Bank: Loan breakup (Q1FY08)
 Largest overseas presence amongst Indian Banks Corporates & SMEs
Total overseas asset size of USD 22bn in Jun-07 Others 3% Overseas
Others 10% Loans
25% market share in overseas remittances 16%
PL 8%
Presence in 17 countries
6% Rural
Three wholly owned international subsidiaries in UK, Canada & 7%
Russia CC
3% TW
 Key subsidiaries include 1% Mortgages
27%
ICICI Prudential (74%) & ICICI Lombard (74%) CV
9%
ICICI Ventures (100%) Auto
10%
ICICI Sec (Group) (99.9%)
ICICI-Prudential AMC (51%)
Source: Company
10
ICICI Bank: Performance Highlights
 Credit to witness 25-30% CAGR for next 2 years ICICI Bank: Balance Sheet growth
Largely driven by corporate lending, rural credit and overseas lending 60
(%)
CAGR in credit at 47% over the past 3 years 40
Retail loans have grown at a 57% CAGR over past 3 years
20
Retail loans likely to grow by 15-20% for next 2 years, despite the
slowdown 0
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08E
 Re-pricing of fixed rate retail loans to help improve NIM
ICICI Bank: Credit Spread
Around Rs 75bn of such fixed rate retail loans are maturing per quarter 7
(%)
Hence the upside potential on asset yields is among the highest 6
We expect the NIM to start expanding from Q3 onwards
5
FY08E
FY09E
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
 Further rise in NPAs largely on account of Net NPAs
Rising proportion of unsecured loans Gross NPAs
Slippages as % of prev yr adv
Slowdown in overall retail loans, which will result in a base effect
Source: Company, ENAM Research
11
Performance & Value of Non-Banking Businesses
ICICI-Pru Life ICICI Lombard – Gross
 Life Insurance: Strong pick up in Q2 after a subdued Q1 100
Insurance - APE written premium
60
After a subdued growth of 22% in Q1FY07; 90 (Rs bn) 87 (Rs bn)
50.7
80 50
FYP grew 58% in July-07 and 91% in Aug-07
70 62 39
YTD growth till Aug-07 stands at 42% 60
40
4 yr CAGR 4 yr CAGR 30
FYP likely to end this fiscal with a growth of 55-60% 50 43 30 of 94%
40 of 103%
Valuing ICICI-Pru Life at USD 8.3bn – Rs 249 p/s for ICICI Bank 20 15.9
30 22
20 13 8.9
 Non Life Business: Focus on profitability 7 10 4.9
10 3 2.1
Gross Premium Underwritten grew 20%+ in July 2007 and Aug 2007 0 0
FY08E
FY09E
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08E
FY09E
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
Earlier in Q1FY07, GP growth was at single digit at 9%
Focus to maintain its Combined Ratio had led to such a fall in GP
Higher competition in some segments led to price war, which is expected Value of Life Insurance Business Rs.bn
to cool down going ahead Estimated value of new policies likely to
be sold (on APE basis) in FY09 98
Normalised profit grew 59% in FY07 to Rs 1.38bn Estimated NBAP margin on APE by FY09 19%
Normalised profit projected to reach Rs 2.3bn by FY09 Estimated NBAP 18.7
Multiple (x) 20.0
Valuing ICICI-Lombard at USD 1.1bn – Rs 31 p/s for ICICI Bank Value of Life Insurance Business 374
Value assigned to ICICI Bank 277
Value per share for Life Insurance Business 249
 Overseas banking subsidiaries showing high growth
General Insurance (Rs mn)
Total assets grew 125% in FY07 to USD 7bn
PAT - FY07 684
UK subsidiary made a profit of USD 40m in FY07, likely to make USD 110m Combined Ratio - FY07 97.5%
net profit by FY09 Total Net Surplus - FY07 (normalised profit) 1,379
Total net surplus-FY09 (normalised profit) 2,331
Overseas subsidiaries – UK, Canada & Russia valued at USD 1.6bn – Rs 77 Value of the Non Life Business 46,610
ICICI share 74%
p/s for ICICI Bank Value of Non Life to ICICI 34,492
Value per share (FY09) 31
Value of ICICI Financial Services 378 Based on USD 11bn valuation of ICICI Financial Services
Value of other investments 75 Other investments include I-Sec, ICICI Venture and other investments
Banking BV – FY09 417 After deducting the cost of investments at ~Rs 40 per share
13
SOTP Without Considering Holding Company Structure
FY09 (Rs/shr) FY09 Note
I-Sec (Group) 27 12x FY09 PAT of Rs 2.5bn (FY07 net profit of Rs 1.67bn)
Value of overseas subsidiaries 77 15x FY09E PAT for ICICI UK and ICICI Canada
Value of other investments at 20% 48 Include value of investments in ICICI Sec/3i/ ICICI Venture/ NCDEX/
discount NSE/ICICI First Source
14
ICICI Bank: Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet
(Rs mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (Rs mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
15
ICICI Bank: Financials
Growth Rates & Key Ratios Key Ratios
(%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
16
India Research
Stock Data
HDFC Bank
No. of shares : 353.2mn
Market cap : Rs.501.4bn
52 week high/low : Rs.1,459 / Rs.875
Avg. daily vol. (6mth) : 695,068 shares
Bloomberg code : HDFCB IN
Reuters code : HDBK.BO
Rs.1,420
Shareholding (%) Jun-07 QoQ chg
Relative to Sector: Neutral Target Price: Rs.1,502
Promoters : 24.7 3.2
FIIs : 26.5 (5.8) Potential Upside: 6%
MFs / UTI : 5.5 2.4
Banks / FIs : 3.2 (0.1)
Others : 40.1 0.4
Relative Performance
200
150
100
A quality play, but upside potential limited
50
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07
BANKEX HDFC Bank
Financial summary
PAT EPS Change P/E BV P/BV NPAs P/Adj.BV RoE RoA
Y/E Mar (Rs m) (Rs.) YoY (%) (x) (Rs.) (x) (%) (x) (%) (%)
2006 8,708 28 29 51 169 8.4 0.4 8.6 17.7 1.4
2007 11,415 36 29 40 201 7.0 0.4 7.3 19.5 1.4
2008E 14,987 42 17 34 331 4.3 0.4 4.4 16.4 1.4
2009E 19,493 55 30 26 375 3.8 0.4 3.9 15.4 1.5
Punit Srivastava
punit@enam.com (+91 22 6754 7609) October 10, 2007
17
HDFC Bank: Investment Summary
 A quality play with consistent performance
Balance sheet growth of 31% in the past five years, likely to grow at ~30% for next two years
Net profit growth of 31% during the same period, expected to grow at 30% for next two years
Credit growth 5 year CAGR at 48%, likely to grow at 30% for next two years
Net Interest Margin of ~ 4% for last 4 years, expected to be maintained
19
HDFC Bank: Performance Highlights
Retail loans as % of total loans
 High retail component, both in assets and liabilities 60 55 57 57
(%) 46
CASA at 51% (Q1FY08), the highest. 50 41
40 27
Wholesale deposits comprised 36% of deposits in FY07 30 18 21
Retail component continues to remain high 20
10
Personal loans account for 24% of retail loans 0
The second largest component in retail after Auto Loans
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
Q1FY08
`
 One of the highest NIMs due to lowt funding cost Break-up of retail loans
100%
Yields have been supported by the high proportion of retail and
80%
unsecured loans.
60%
CASA at above 50% in Q1FY07, almost evenly divided
40%
NIM expected to be stable at 4% 20%
0%
 Slippages higher due to higher % of unsecured loans FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
Slippages at 1.8% in FY07 on account of Auto CVs & CE
` Substantial increase in interest rates Personal Against securities
TW Business Banking
` Higher proportion of unsecured loans which increased from 18% of retail loans Credit cards Others
in FY04 to an average of 26% in last two years Comparative CASA (FY07)
60 (%) 8
(%)
 Healthy fee income growth 40 27
6
7.1 mn debit and credit cards issued in FY07 30
34 21 4
Increased cross selling through branches, while targeting various 20
26 13 2
19 19
customer segments 12 9
0 0
ICICI
HDFC
PNB
Bank
Bank
SBI
Bank
Axis
 Improving transaction cost
~50% of retail transactions through ATMs Current a/c (LHS) Savings a/c (LHS)
Cost of Deposits
Source: Company
20
HDFC Bank: Financials
Income statement Balance sheet
(Rs. mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (Rs mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
21
HDFC Bank: Financials
Growth Rates & Key Ratios Key Ratios
(%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
22
India Research
Stock Data
Axis Bank
No. of shares : 356mn
Market cap : Rs 259bn
52 week high/low : Rs 775/ Rs 382
Avg. daily vol. (6mth) : 686,600 shares
Bloomberg code : AXSB IN
Reuters code : AXSB.BO
Rs 728
Shareholding (%) Jun-07 QoQ chg
Relative to Sector: Outperformer Target Price: Rs 937
Indian Promoters : 42.9 (0.2)
MFs & UTI : 8.5 1.7 Potential Upside: 29%
Banks & FIs : 0.1 (0.0)
FIIs : 36.2 (5.5)
Indian Public : 8.7 3.1
Others : 3.6 0.9
Relative Performance
250
200
150
100
Racing Ahead
50
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07
BANKEX Axis Bk.
Source: ENAM Research, Bloomberg
Financial summary
PAT EPS Change P/E BV P/BV NPAs P/Adj. BV RoE RoA
Y/E Mar (Rs. m) (Rs.) YoY (%) (x) (Rs.) (x) (%) (x) (%) (%)
2006 4,851 17.6 25 41.4 103 7.1 0.8 7.5 18.4 1.1
2007 6,590 23.4 33 31.1 120 6.0 0.7 6.4 21.0 1.1
2008E 9,203 25.9 10 28.1 240 3.0 0.6 3.1 15.4 1.0
2009E 12,830 36.0 39 20.2 268 2.7 0.6 2.8 14.2 1.1
Punit Srivastava
punit@enam.com (+91 22 6754 7609) October 10, 2007
23
Axis Bank: Investment Summary
 Among the fastest growing Private Banks
5 year Balance sheet CAGR of 40%, likely to grow by 35-40% for next two years
5 year CAGR in net profit at 38%, in line with asset growth, expected to grow at a CAGR of 40% for next two years
5 year CAGR in credit at 48%, expected to grow at a CAGR of 47% for next two years
 Asset growth still expected to grow at 35-40% for next two years
Credit growth driven by corporates, SMEs, rural, retail and overseas assets
NIM likely to remain stable with CASA component of ~40%
Asset quality unlikely to see any noticeable deterioration
Average ROE likely to drop to 15% for next two years, however projected to deliver ~17% in FY10
 High earnings growth to keep the valuations attractive, despite lower ROE
The stock quotes at 20.2x FY09E earnings and 2.7x FY09E BV
Equity dilution of USD 1.05bn to lead to lower ROE in FY08 & FY09, though it will pick up in FY10
Raising our price target by 16% on account of expected sustained momentum in credit growth and net profit
Sector Outperformer rating with a price target of Rs 937
24
Axis Bank: Background
 Third largest private bank in the country Axis Bank: Break-up of Loan Portfolio
Total asset size of ~USD 20bn (Q1FY08)
Mid
 Established in 1994 with a capital of USD 28mn Corporate Retail
Promoters : SUUTI, LIC & GIC and other insurance companies 13% 23%
Currently, the third largest ATM network of 2,341 – next only
to SBI & ICICI
522 branches with PAN India presence Agriculture
9980 employees in FY07 10%
Large
coporates SME
 Recently raised USD 1bn through equity dilution 47% 7%
Raised capital simultaneously through GDR, QIP and
preferential allotments
State Wise Distribution of Branches
 Mr P J Nayak likely to continue for next two years
as Chairman & CEO Pondicherry Punjab
The bank will have to find a suitable suitor for him and split the 1% Rajasthan
Orrisa 17%
post between Non Executive Chairman & CMD in future 5%
8%
Sikkim
 Some of the large investors (besides promoters) 1%
include (pre-dilution) West Bengal
TN
31%
HSBC (4.9%) 20%
Barclays (4.9%)
Citigroup (4.4%) Uttaranchal Tripura
4% UP 1%
UBS (4%) 12%
Source: RBI, ENAM Research
25
Axis Bank: Performance Highlights
 Expect 47% CAGR in credit over the period 2007-09 Break-up of Retail Loans
Retail and corporate advances increased by 38% and 76% in
100%
FY07
80%
Expect retail lending to moderate to 30-32% with some slowdown
60%
in the home loan and Auto Loan segments
40%
20%
 Fee based income to provide greater upside to income
0%
growth 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E
Projected 2 year CAGR of ~40% in fee based income
` Driven by capital market services and retail banking segments. Auto. loans Home Loans
Personal Loans Others
Growth in international operations likely to increase commission Edu. Loans Cons. durable loans
based income
 NIM expected to improve marginally in FY08 Fee Income growth for Axis
Expanding retail network and high CASA to help sustain NIM 16,000
(mn)
Margins likely sustain as the bank expands its branch network by a
12,000
further 150 branches in FY08 CAGR of 58%
USD 1.05bn issue will also help in higher reported NIM 8,000
26
Axis Bank: Financials
Income statement Balance sheet
(Rs. mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (Rs mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
27
Axis Bank: Financials
Growth Rates & Key Ratios Key Ratios
(%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
28
India Research
Stock Data
260
220
180
140
100 High growth story, but fairly valued
60
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07
BANKEX CBoP
Financial summary
PAT EPS Change P/E BV P/BV NPAs P/Adj. BV RoE RoA
Y/E Mar
(Rs.m) (Rs.) YoY (%) (x) (Rs.) (x) (%) (x) (%) (%)
2006 879 0.6 152 72.0 7 6.9 1.1 7.5 11.7 1.1
2007 1,217 0.8 24 57.9 9 5.1 1.3 5.7 10.6 0.8
2008E 1,627 0.8 9 52.9 12 3.8 1.5 4.3 8.9 0.7
2009E 2,352 1.2 45 36.6 13 3.5 1.0 3.9 9.9 0.7
Punit Srivastava
punit@enam.com (+91 22 6754 7609) October 10, 2007
29
CBOP: Investment Summary
 New private sector bank with substantial focus on Retail and SME
Retail loans comprise 68% of credit book, one of the highest among private banks
Increasing focus on SMEs, comprising 14% of the credit book
 One of the largest branch networks among private banks in North India
56 branches in Delhi (NCR), 77 branches in Punjab and 23 branches in Haryana (23)
Merger has added 121 branches and EC’s along with access to LKB’s clients in Kerela
Post merger the bank will have over 37% of its branches in Kerela
The bank plans to add another 200 branches by June-08
Proportion of Retail deposits will increase but CASA may moderate to ~ 26% in FY08 from 28% in Jun-07
 ROA & ROE projected to remain low for next two years
ROA projected to remain ~0.7% and ROE <10% for next two years
While valuations likely to remain high due to strong growth prospects, further re-rating unlikely
30
CBOP: Background
 Large branch network in Northern India and Kerala Branch distribution Sept-07
Post mergers with BOP & LKB, the bank enjoys dominant presence in (post LKB merger)
Punjab, Delhi, Haryana & Kerala
Others
393 Branches and EC’s along with 450 ATM’s (post-merger). Kerela
Tamil- 14%
Over 6400 employees as of March 2007 Nadu
24%
7%
Haryana
Punjab
 Established in July-94 as ‘Centurion Bank’ 7%
22%
Restructuring and equity infusion in 2004 by some of the existing Maharash Delhi
tra 16%
investors and Sabre capital 10%
North based ‘Bank of Punjab’ merged with the bank in Oct,2005
31
CBOP: Performance Highlights
 Retail and SME likely to remain key areas of focus Advances Break-up (FY07)
Post restructuring CBOP has focused on retail and SME as core SME Mortgages are the biggest
segments Coporates 14%
contributor in FY07
March,05 numbers are for Centurion Bank alone. Source: ENAM Research
32
Centurion Bank of Punjab: Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet
(Rs. mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (Rs mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
33
Centurion Bank of Punjab: Financials
Growth Rates & Key Ratios Key Ratios
(%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
34
India Research
Stock Data
No. of shares : 280mn
Market cap : Rs.54.1bn
52 week high/low : Rs.215 / Rs.99
Yes Bank
Avg. daily vol. (3mth) : 1.2mn shares
Rs193
Bloomberg code : YES IN
Reuters code : YESB.BO
260
220
180
140
100 A Premium Play
60
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07
BANKEX Yes Bank
Source: ENAM Research, Bloomberg
Financial summary
PAT EPS Change P/E BV P/BV NPAs ROE ROA
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) (Rs) YoY (%) (x) (Rs) (x) (%) (%) (%)
2006 553 2.0 - 94.3 21 9.1 0.0 14.0 2.0
2007 944 3.4 64 57.3 28 6.9 0.0 13.9 1.2
2008E 1,818 6.1 80 31.9 48 4.0 0.1 16.3 1.3
2009E 3,008 9.6 58 20.2 68 2.8 0.1 16.8 1.3
Punit Srivastava
punit@enam.com (+91 22 6754 7609) October 10, 2007
35
Yes Bank: Investment Summary
 New age private sector bank with excellent track record of promoters
36
Yes Bank: Background
 The only bank to receive a green-field license from the
Break-up of branches as of Jun 2007
RBI since 1995
Commenced operations in Aug 2004 after receiving license in May South
East
2% West
2004 7%
41%
IPO in 2005 at Rs 45 per share
Network of 54 branches as of June 2007, a majority concentrated in North
Northern and the Western India 50%
Employee strength of 2,792 as of Jun 2007
Growth in assets
 Excellent promoter track record & strong investor base 500
(Rs bn)
Mr. Rana Kapoor (CEO & MD) and Mr. Ashok Kapur - well known 400
2yr CAGR
300 of 195%
professional bankers
200
Institutions like Rabobank (current holding 19.29%), Chrys Capital 100
(current holding 2.28%) are the initial investors 0
FY08E
FY09E
FY10E
FY05
FY06
FY07
 Growth momentum largely driven by wholesale banking.
Corporate advances grew at a CAGR of over 200% since inception. Break-up of loan book (FY07)
Continues to have NIL NPAs till Jun 2007 Retail
2% C&IB
Balance sheet size has grown at CAGR of 195% in the past 2 years EC 73%
High treasury and advisory business income 21%
Non-Int Income/Total Income at 59.2% as of Jun 2007
SME
4%
Source: Company, ENAM Research
37
Yes Bank: Performance Highlights
 Current deposit franchise mainly funded by wholesale
FY07 Break-up of deposits
CASA at 6.6% as of Jun 2007
As the bank improves its retail presence, CASA expected improve to CASA Other
~20% by 2010 6% Retail
5%
CDs
 Retail and SME segment to drive incremental growth 20%
Expect 25% of loan book to comprise Retail & SME by FY10 Other
Bank targets to open 250 branches by 2010 with an initial focus on Whole-
sale
‘affluent’ retail customers 69%
38
Yes Bank: Financials
Income statement Balance sheet
(Rs. mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (Rs mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
39
Yes Bank: Financials
Growth Rates & Key Ratios Key Ratios
(%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
40
India Research
Stock Data
Federal Bank
No. of shares : 85.5mn
Market cap : Rs.31.3bn
52 week high/low : Rs.396 / Rs.188
Avg. daily vol. (3mth) : 262,273 shares
Bloomberg code : FB IN
Reuters code : FED.BO
Rs 367
Shareholding (%) Jun-07 QoQ chg
Relative to Sector: Outperformer Target Price: Rs.428
FIIs : 35.5 1.9
MFs / UTI : 14.0 3.4 Potential Upside: 17%
Banks / FIs : 4.2 0.0
Others : 46.3 (5.3)
Relative Performance
210
160
110
Consistency pays
60
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07
BANKEX Federal
Source: ENAM Research, Bloomberg
Financial summary
PAT EPS Change P/E BV P/BV NPAs P/Adj. BV ROE ROA
Y/E Mar (Rs. m) (Rs.) YoY (%) (x) (Rs.) (x) (%) (%) (%)
FY06 2,252 26 150.0 13.9 145 2.5 1.0 2.7 23.0 1.2
FY07 2,927 34 30.0 10.7 175 2.1 0.4 2.2 21.3 1.3
FY08E 3,702 43 26.5 8.5 212 1.7 0.4 1.8 22.3 1.3
FY09E 4,476 52 20.9 7.0 257 1.4 0.4 1.5 22.3 1.4
Punit Srivastava
punit@enam.com (+91 22 6754 7609) October 10, 2007
41
Federal Bank: Investment Summary
 An old private sector bank with consistence track record in growth and profitability
 Strong regional player with ~72% of the branches in the southern state of Kerala (FY06)
 Assets grew at CAGR of 20% between FY02 and FY07 indicating steady growth
Growth driven by Retail and SME, which currently constitutes 70% of the loan book on a combined basis
 Consistently delivering on its ROA and ROE over the past few years
ROE has been in the region of 20% - 23% during FY02 - FY07
Only exception in FY05 when it was 13% due one time wage expenses and higher depreciation in bond portfolio
42
Federal Bank: Background
 An old generation private sector bank Geographical distribution of branches
Incorporated as Travancore Federal Bank Ltd, Nedumpram in West Others
1931 Bengal 15%
3%
Tamil
 No promoters but strong backing of Institutional Nadu
investors 7%
ICICI Bank held ~20.4% shares in Sep 2004
Maharas
` Reduction in holdings post notification of RBI guidelines restricting Kerala
htra
cross-bank ownership to 5% in 2004-05. 71%
4%
HDFC MF held 5.5% in Mar 2004. Stake reduced to ~1.7% as RoA & RoE
on Jun 2007 25
(%) (%) 1.5
In Mar 2007, IFC was looking to acquire close to 7.76% in Fed 20 1.2
Bank 15 0.9
` However the RBI restricted the investment to 5%
10 0.6
5 0.3
 Strategy of consistent asset growth 0 0.0
Asset growth clocked ~20% CAGR over FY02-FY07
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
Retail and SME segments to drive Incremental growth going
forward RoE (LHS) RoA (RHS)
ROA and ROE has been in the range of 1-1.3% and 20-23%
respectively
SME
40%
Source: Company
43
Federal Bank: Performance Highlights
 NIM expansion despite a low CASA base CASA & NIM
40% 300
Q1FY08 NIM at 3.21% vs. 3.17% in Q1FY07 and 3.06% in FY07 (bps)
30% 200
Relatively stable CASA over the past few years at 25% 20% 100
Asset quality consistently improving 10% 0
` Despite higher exposure to the Retail and SME segments 0% (100)
Vijaya Bk
Can Bk
Fed Bk
Corp Bk
SIB
Syndicate
NPAs at its lowest in Q1FY08, Net NPA ratio at 0.37%
Bk
Target is to recover NPAs of ~Rs 1.5bn in FY08, of which ~Rs 470mn are
already recovered in Q1FY08
CASA YoY Chng NIM (RHS)
Assets Quality
 Assets likely to grow at a CAGR of 19% in FY07-09 8 4.0
(%) (%)
Advances likely to grow at a CAGR of ~21.5% between FY07 and FY09 6 3.0
Bank is expected to maintain the current mix of loans and advances 4 2.0
2 1.0
 Life insurance foray - tie-up with IDBI and Fortis
0 0.0
Expected to pump in ~Rs 2bn over the next 5 years for 26% stake in the FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 Q1FY08
venture Net NPAs (RHS) Gross NPAs
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
Q1FY08
CASA COD (RHS)
Source: Company
44
Federal Bank: Financials
Income statement Balance sheet
(Rs. mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (Rs mn) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY08E
45
Federal Bank: Financials
Growth Rates & Key Ratios Key Ratios
(%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E (%) FY06 FY07 FY08E FY09E
46
Annexure
47
Origin of Private Banks
 Post nationalization of banks in 1969 and Old Generation Private Sector Banks
1980, RBI permitted the entry of new City Union Bank (Nil, Tamilnadu) Federal Bank (Nil, Kerala)
Ing Vysya Bank (ING, 44.2, Karnataka ) The Jammu & Kashmir
generation private banks in July 1993 Bank (J&K Govt, 53%,
J&K)
 Prior to this, there were 21 old private banks, Karnataka Bank (Nil) The Karur Vysya Bank
(Nil, Tamilnadu)
which were already operating in 1993 Nainital Bank , (Bank of Baroda, 98 The Lakshmi Vilas Bank
Most of these old private banks have a long history of Uttarkhand) (Nil, Tamilnadu)
60-70 years SBI Commercial & International (100, The Ratnakar Bank
SBI) (Promoters of Centrum Fin,
Many of them have been doing quite well and hence 5%, Maharashtra)
have not yet been merged Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (Nadar, The South Indian Bank
80%, Tamilnadu) (Nil, Kerala)
 In 1993 RBI gave licenses to 9 new private Bank of Rajasthan (Tayal group, 44%)
Catholic Syrian Bank (Chawlas 36%, Syrian Community, Kerala)
sector banks in the country. Of these, Dhanalakshmi Bank (Raja Mohan Rao, 9.68, kerala)
Times Bank merged with HDFC Bank in Feb 2000 Note: Information in brackets includes majority shareholder,% owned & major
Global Trust Bank merged with OBC presence in the state
Bank of Punjab merged with Centurion Bank
New Generation Private Banks Promoters holding/
Controlling Stake (%)
 Two new banking licenses were given post Centurion Bank of Punjab 1.22
1993 Development Credit Bank 26.5
Yes Bank in 2004 HDFC Bank Ltd 22
Kotak was allowed to convert to a bank in 2003-04 ICICI Bank 0
IndusInd Bank 28
 Currently there are 8 new generation private Kotak Mahindra Bank 55
Axis Bank 34
banks and 18 old generation private banks
YES Bank 36
LKB recently merged with Centurion Bank
Source : RBI, ENAM Research, Company
48
Historical Performance: New Private Banks
49
New Private Banks: Credit Growth
Credit Growth Credit Growth
80 240
(%) 200 (%)
60 160
120
40
80
20 40
0
0 (40)
FY08E
FY08E
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
ICICI HDFC Bk Axis CBoP KMB Yes Bank
Credit Growth
80
(%)
40
(40)
FY08E
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
DCB IndusInd
0 2
FY08E
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY08E
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
ICICI HDFC Bk Axis CBoP KMB Yes Bank
NIM
4.0
(%)
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
FY08E
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
DCB IndusInd
FY08E
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY08E
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
CBoP KMB
ICICI HDFC Bk Axis
Net NPAs
10.0
(%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
FY08E
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
DCB IndusInd
Source: Company, ENAM Research
52
Historical Performance: Old Private Banks
53
Performance of Old Private Banks: Credit Growth
Credit Growth NIM Asset Quality
40 5 12
(%) (%) (%)
30 4 10
8
20 3 6
4
10 2
2
0 1 0
FY08E
FY00
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY08E
FY08E
FY00
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY00
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
J&K ING Vysya SIB Fed Bk KBV Karnataka Bk Fedbank KVB KTK BK
FY08E
FY00
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY00
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY08E
FY00
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
Fed Bk KTK Bank KVB J&K BK SIB ING Vysya J&K Bank SIB ING Vysya
54
Current Performance
55
Credit Growth Moderating, but Still Healthy
 Credit growth seen moderating in most large Q1FY08 YoY Credit and Deposit Growth
private banks
Mortgages and auto loans are worst affected YoY Credit growth YoY Deposit growth
Corporates, rural and overseas loans likely to continue Yes Bk 118 168
grow at higher rate (%)
CBoP 55
60
 Banks like HDFC Bank & ICICI Bank have seen Axis Bk 45
60
moderation in credit growth
Kotak Bk 121
56
 On a systemic basis 33
DCB 50
Both credit and deposits grew 23.4% till mid Sep 2007
Increase in credit till Apri-Sep-07 at Rs 0.5 trillion ICICI Bk 26
35
Increase in investments in the same period at Rs 1.17 35
HDFC Bk 33
trillion
J&K Bk 20
32
25
 NII growth was lower than credit growth as SIB 29
NIMs came under pressure KVB 23
26
INGV Bk 26
23
Federal Bk 13
23
Indus Bk 13
6
56
NIMs Under Pressure
 NIM under pressure both on a sequential and QoQ Movement in CASA (Q1FY08)
YoY basis, largely on account of 160
(bps)
80
Fall in LDR over the last quarter 0
Fall in Bond spreads resulting from increase in cost of (80)
deposits and more or less flat yields on investments (160)
(240)
(320)
 Moderation in credit is helping banks to (400)
reduce cost of deposits. Therefore incremental (480)
(560)
cost of deposits will be lower (640)
(720)
ICICI Bk
 However, pressure on NIM may still sustain as
Indus Bk
DCB
KMB
J&K Bk
HDFC Bk
Axis Bk
INGV Bk
Ktk Bk
Fed. Bk
Yes Bk
deposits come up for re-pricing in the next
few quarters
HDFC Bk
Indus Bk
J&K Bk
Yes Bk
KMB
Axis Bk
Fed. Bk
CBOP
SIB
INGV Bk
ICICI Bk
HDFC Bk
Ktk Bk
J&K Bk
Yes Bk
Dena Bk
Indus Bk
KMB
Fed. Bk
Axis Bk
CBOP
SIB
Source: Company, ENAM Research, * in comparison with FY07 credit spreads
57
…even as credit spreads have improved
 Despite hike in term deposit rates in
YoY change in credit spread in Q1FY08
Q4FY07, credit spreads^ improved for 140 128
(bps)
banks 120
Largely on account of their ability to hike PLR 100
almost 3 times in FY07 80 68
60
60
 Banks saw improvement in credit spread
40 29
both on YoY and QoQ basis 20 24
20 9
0 0
 Banks are also slowly moving away from 0
ICICI Bk
INGV Bk
J&K Bk
Yes Bk
BoI
DCB
OBC
SIB
Federal
housing loans to industrial loans
Bk
where discount to PLR is reduced to some extent
0
4
(20)
20 19
(40)
ICICI Bk
INGV Bk
J&K Bk
Yes Bk
Fed. Bk
SIB
^ Credit Spread : Yield on Advances – Cost of deposits
Source: Company, ENAM Research, * In comparison with FY07 credit spreads
58
Some Deterioration in Asset Quality, but Not Alarming
Q1 QoQ Decline in Gross and Net NPA Q1 YoY Decline in Gross and Net NPA
Fall in Gross NPA Fall in Net NPA Fall in Gross NPA Fall in Net NPA
15 124
SIB SIB
24 172
15 94
J&K Bk INGV Bk
157
13
3 39
Fed. Bk Fed. Bk
5 154
11 18
INGV Bk Ktk Bk
3 141
2 14
Axis Bk Axis Bk
(6) 24
(26)
(4) J&K Bk
Indus Bk (18)
(7)
(67)
(13) Indus Bk
Ktk Bk (61)
(21)
(50)
(32) ICICI Bk
ICICI Bk (74)
(52)
59
Net Profit Growth has been Robust
Q1FY08 YoY PAT and provisioning growth
Source: Company
60
Capital is Comfortable for Most Banks
Q1FY08: Tier-I & CAR
Tier-I CAR
 Most large Private Banks have 13
J&K Bk
already completed their capital 12.4
(%)
13
HDFC Bk
 Post capital raising, Tier-I will go up 9.2
12
Axis Bk
6.3
Source: Company
61
Roadmap for Presence of Foreign Banks in India
 Phase –I (March 2005 to March 2009) (Source: RBI)
Foreign banks wishing to establish a setup in India can either operate through a branch network or set
up a 100% wholly owned subsidiary, following the one-mode presence criteria
For existing foreign banks – the RBI will go beyond the existing commitment of 12 branches in a year.
Also, a more liberal policy in under-banked areas will be followed
Foreign banks already operating in India will be allowed to convert their existing branches to wholly
owned subsidiaries which would be treated on par with the existing branches in terms of market
access and national treatment limitation
Initially, entry of foreign banks will be permitted only in those private banks that are identified by the
RBI for re-structuring
` RBI may ask the foreign bank for a minimum stake of 15% to start with though the overall limit of 74% will still
be applicable
` If such a foreign bank is already having a setup in India then the bank will have to submit a proposal to conform
to the “one mode of presence” concept, which should be completed within 6 months
62
Roadmap for Presence of Foreign Banks in India
 Phase – II : April 2009
Wholly Owned subsidiaries of foreign banks will be be treated at par with domestic banks
63
ENAM Securities Pvt. Ltd.
109-112, Dalamal Tower, Free Press Journal Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai - 400 021, India.
Tel:- Board +91-22 6754 7500; Dealing +91-22 2280 0167;
Fax:- Research +91-22 6754 7579; Dealing +91-22 6754 7575
CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE
We, at ENAM, are committed to providing the most honest and transparent advice to our clients. However, given the nature of the capital markets, from time to time we are faced with situations that could give rise to
potential conflict of interest. In order to provide complete transparency to our clients, before we make any recommendations, we are committed to making a disclosure of our interest and any potential conflict IN
ADVANCE so that the interests of our clients are safe- guarded at all times. In light of this policy, we have instituted what we believe to be the most comprehensive disclosure policy among leading investment
banks/brokerages in the world so that our clients may make an informed judgment about our recommendations. The following disclosures are intended to keep you informed before you make any decision- in addition, we
will be happy to provide information in response to specific queries that our clients may seek from us.
Disclosure of interest statement (As of October 5, 2007) ICICI Bank HDFC Bank Axis Bank CBoP Yes Bank Federal Bank
1. Analyst ownership of the stock Yes No No No No No
2. Firm ownership of the stock No No No No No No
3. Directors ownership of the stock Yes Yes No No Yes Yes
4. Investment Banking mandate No No No No Yes No
5. Broking relationship Yes Yes Yes No No No
We are committed to providing completely independent and transparent recommendations to help our clients reach a better decision.
This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice,
and nothing in this document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. The intent of this document is not in recommendary nature
Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the
merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors
Enam Securities Private Limited has not independently verified all the information given in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or
fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document
The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject
to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval
Enam securities Private Limited, its affiliates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned
in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities
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This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of ENAM Securities Private Limited. The views expressed are those of
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Copyright in this document vests exclusively with ENAM Securities Private Limited.
64