Middle East Qatar

Company
Special Report

5 December 2010
MENA Equities Strategy Best proxies for the 2022 World Cup
Banks are the best proxy for the expected

Qatar scores the 2022

Global Markets Research

World Cup boost to Qatar's economy.

QNB and CBQ are potential winners in a
ST rally. For MENA contractors, the
impact is likely to be more limited.

World Cup
Arabtec and DSI are more sensitive to
potential awards in Qatar.

Companies featured
Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA),QAR175.70 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
A surprise award for most investors; Qatari stock market likely to move EPS Adjusted (QAR)10.74 14.17 16.58
While Qatar’s chances to organize the World Cup have improved lately (as P/E Adjusted (x) 13.8 12.4 10.6
reflected by the 60% probability given by the London bookmakers the day before P/B Stated (x) 3.1 3.0 2.5
Commercial bank (COMB.QA),QAR86.50 Buy
the announcement, source: go.com), the award nevertheless comes as a surprise 2009A 2010E 2011E
for most investors in our view, and we do not believe the market had anticipated EPS Adjusted (QAR)7.04 7.71 9.24
the news. The Qatari index is likely to react positively when it re-opens on Sunday. P/E Adjusted (x) 8.7 11.2 9.4
P/B Stated (x) 1.2 1.7 1.6
A unique boost to Qatar’s infrastructure spending and overall economy Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA),QAR81.20 Buy
According to preliminary estimate, the incremental infrastructure spending would 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS Adjusted (QAR)6.07 5.82 7.40
amount to USD30bn. What makes the Qatar case unique compared to other P/E Adjusted (x) 12.8 14.0 11.0
similar events is the relative size of the investment outlay compared to the P/B Stated (x) 2.1 2.0 1.8
country’s GDP. At 24%, the spending / GDP ratio of Qatar largely surpasses South Doha Bank (DOBK.QA),QAR56.40 Hold
Africa 2010 (1%), Brazil 2014 (1%) and Russia 2018 (3%). We believe the impact 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS Adjusted (QAR)5.38 5.57 6.45
on the country’s economy, population growth, private and public sector will P/E Adjusted (x) 8.7 10.1 8.7
therefore be far more important than for other hosts of the World Cup. P/B Stated (x) 1.7 2.0 2.0
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK.QA),QAR16.30 Hold
Banks: initial focus on CAR, balance sheet and government ownership 2009A 2010E 2011E
We expect a broadly positive market reaction on banking stocks as these are the EPS Adjusted (QAR)1.17 1.59 1.76
best way to capture any systemic trends affecting the country, representing 52% P/E Adjusted (x) 11.4 10.3 9.2
of the QE20 Index. The key elements to help differentiates between banks for P/B Stated (x) 1.7 1.7 1.6
Drake & Scull (DSI.DU),AED0.96 Buy
now are capital strength, balance sheet size and government ownership. On this 2009A 2010E 2011E
basis, we think QNB, and CBQ are likely ST winners. Over a medium term horizon, DB EPS (AED) 0.15 0.10 0.11
we think the World Cup will provide other benefits such as more visibility on loan P/E (x) 6.0 9.8 8.9
demand and population growth. EV/EBITDA (x) 4.2 8.4 5.9
Arabtec Holding (ARTC.DU),AED1.87 Hold
MENA Contractors: significant potential but will take time to materialize 2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (AED) 0.66 0.22 0.22
We estimate Qatar to account for 7-8% of earnings of our MENA contractors P/E (x) 3.7 8.5 8.4
under coverage, without major differences between Arabtec, DSI and OCI. The EV/EBITDA (x) 2.8 6.8 6.5
size of the incremental spending is nevertheless equivalent to three times our Orascom Construction (OCIC.CA),EGP258.48 Hold
contractors’ total backlog or 18 times their current Qatari exposure. The lack of a 2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (EGP) 11.31 15.65 20.41
sizeable Qatari contractor means there will be plenty of room for foreign players. P/E (x) 17.1 16.5 12.7
In a first approach, we calculate an NPV of the projects close to USD1bn and EV/EBITDA (x) 10.8 10.5 8.1
assuming MENA contractors get 20% market share, value creation would be
limited to USD184m, i.e. 2% of market caps. Due to their relative smaller sizes,
Arabtec and DSI would be much more sensitive than OCI to any incremental
awards in Qatar, We continue to rate DSI as our top pick in the sector.
Valuation and risks
We use target P/BV multiple to value Qatari banks and specific DCF to value the
MENA contractors. Key risks are lower oil prices, lower loan growth and higher
asset impairments for the banks; lower infrastructure spending, margin pressure
and failure to recover receivables for MENA contractors.
Nabil Ahmed Ryan Ayache
Research Analyst Research Analyst
(+971) 4 4283-862 (+971) 4 428-3781
nabil.ahmed@db.com ryan.ayache@db.com

Deutsche Bank AG/London

All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 007/05/2010
5 December 2010 Banking MENA Equities Strategy

Qatar to organize the 2022

World Cup
The case of Qatar may be unique in World Cup history
Qatar’s case in winning the bid to host the World Cup is unique when considered from the
perspective of the country’s relative economic size. At a projected USD127bn for 2010e, the
country’s GDP is smaller than any other host.

Qatar’s economy is likely to grow significantly between now and 2022, so by the time the
World Cup takes place in Qatar, its GDP will be much larger. Nevertheless, the differential
between Qatar’s GDP and prior / currently announced hosts is significant.

Spain and Mexico both had relatively small GDP’s when they hosted the event. The
difference here is that both are likely to have had more infrastructure on the ground –
stadiums especially – than Qatar currently has.

Figure 1: GDP at current price in USD of host nation at time of hosting World Cup (current GDP for future hosts)
7,500 7,085
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,494
4,500
4,000
3,500
2,921
3,000
2,500 2,024
2,000
1,474 1,477
1,500 1,136
1,000
354
500 192 146 127
0
Spain Mexico Italy US France Jap / SK Germany South Brazil Russia Qatar
Africa

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Source: Deutsche Bank, IMF, FIFA

Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London

5 December 2010 Banking MENA Equities Strategy

USD30bn incremental spend on infrastructure

Qatar has been spending heavily on infrastructure for several years. The average capital
spending relative to total expenditure has been 33% since 2004. Expenditure as a share of
GDP has also been high at an average of 31% since 2004.

In the 2010 budget, published in March, authorities had allocated QAR117.9bn to

expenditure, of which we expect around one-third to be capital spending. This represents
c.USD11bn. Assuming stable levels of spending over a decade on a YoY basis, the additional
infrastructure spend could represent add c.25% to capital spending every year (USD3bn).

Relative to GDP, Qatar’s investments on World Cup-related infrastructure will represent a

24% share, far higher than other countries such as Russia (3%) and Brazil (0.9%). This is the
key reason why the market is likely to react positively, in our view.

Figure 2: Qatar’s capital expenditure spending Figure 3: Infrastructure spend / GDP of host nation

45% USD bn
30% 60

40% 25% 50

35% 20% 40

30% 15% 30

25% 10% 20

20% 5% 10

15% 0% 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010e Qatar Russia Brazil South Africa

% GDP Infrastructure spending (RHS)

Expenditure / GDP Capital expenditure / total expenditure

Source: Deutsche Bank, Qatar Ministry of Finance Source: Deutsche Bank, various national Ministries of respective countries, Financial Times

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 3

5 December 2010 Banking MENA Equities Strategy

Qatari Banks
Capital, balance sheet size and government ownership are useful
initial benchmarks
Initial market reaction is likely to be positive across the board for banking stocks, however
until we have more granularity on the numbers we think three points will help investors
differentiate between the banks: capital strength, balance sheet size and government
ownership.

Although these three elements are not immutable and are indeed likely to evolve, the
outcome of this basic ranking may provide some indication of current winners in an initial
market rally.

Figure 4: Capital adequacy (%), total assets (in USD, at as Q310) and government ownership
CAR in 2010e Rank Total assets Rank Gov't ownership Rank Average rank

QNB 14.2% 4 53.5 1 50.0% 1 2.0

CBQ 18.0% 3 15.7 2 9.1% 3 2.7

Doha Bank 13.5% 5 12.3 3 9.1% 3 3.7

QIB 18.3% 2 12.3 4 9.1% 3 3.0

MARK 19.0% 1 8.8 5 32.0% 2 2.7
Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data

Based on the three factors outlined above, the strongest players are QNB, CBQ and Masraf
Al Rayan, while Doha Bank lags its peers, mostly notable on CAR.

Medium and LT outlook scores three key positives

Public sector credit demand to keep growing
The public sector accounts for c.1/3 of credit demand in Qatar, and in 2010 has grown YTD
by 60%. Though we view 2010 as exceptional rather than normative, the expected capital
outlay based on quoted figures adds undeniable visibility to this key segment of credit
demand.

Corporate activity will be rationalized dramatically; expect much better credit demand
The World Cup will dramatically rationalize spending plans by corporate – in fact we expect
the majority of domestic spending by corporates from now on to be aimed at World Cup
readiness / positioning. This will result in much stronger and more stable credit demand from
the corporate segment at large.

More visibility on population growth

Population growth has always been a major weakness of the Qatar story, as this was widely
seen as lacking sustainability. The World Cup will create a significant population growth as
professionals of all stripes will move to Qatar to help build and operate all that is required to
host the world’s biggest sporting event. In practical terms, this means that there will be a lot
of potential new clients for Qatari banks, not only blue-collar workers.

Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG/London

5 December 2010 Banking MENA Equities Strategy

Banks are best direct play on the event

Qatari banks represent the best way to capture systemic trends / events that impact the
country, such the World Cup. From an index perspective, they account for the largest
segment in the QE 20 Index.

Figure 5: Banking sector stocks in the QE20 Index

70% 66%

60% 58%
52%
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Banks in top 5 Banks in top 10 Banks in total

Source: Deutsche Bank, Qatar Exchange

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 5

5 December 2010 Banking MENA Equities Strategy

MENA Contractors
Lack of national champion means foreign contractors to get the
lion’s share
Contractors will be on the forefront to reap the benefits from the announced USD30bn of
infrastructure spending to host the 2022 Football World Cup. Few details are currently
available. Qatar would spend USD4bn to build nine stadiums and renovate three others that
would use solar technology to bring pitch temperatures down to 27 degrees or below.
Beyond, the government announces USD20bn to be spent on tourism infrastructure. We
anticipate it will lead to massive investments in hotels (FIFA requires a minimum of 60,000
rooms vs. around 10,000 currently in the country), roads and other transportation
infrastructures (extending airport facilities).

It is worth flagging that Qatar is one of the few GCC countries without a major national
contractor. As such, this is a unique opportunity for foreign contractors to get the lion’s share
of the works. We estimate the MENA contractors will have a role to play even if we
anticipate competition from European/Australian/South African players.

MENA contractors: limited exposure to Qatar right now…

All our MENA contractors under coverage currently have operations in Qatar, which has been
one of the fastest growing regional markets in the past 18 months. OCI looks the most
exposed, with 18% of its construction backlog; Qatar has actually become the company’s
second end-market behind Egypt. However, OCI is also a diversified play between
construction and fertilizers and, as a result, we estimate Qatar’s current contribution to
earnings at c.8%.

Figure 6: Construction backlog exposure to Qatar Figure 7: Earnings exposure to Qatar construction

20% 18% 20%

15% 15%

10%
10% 10%
8%
7% 7% 7%

5% 5%

0% 0%
Arabtec DSI OCI Arabtec DSI OCI

Source: Deutsche Bank, company data Source: Deutsche Bank, company data

Current earnings contribution from Qatar is roughly similar for Arabtec and DSI at around 7%.
Arabtec looks slightly more exposed if we consider its backlog exposure (10%) but it is worth
reminding that the company only controls 49% of its Qatari unit.

…but WC 2022 brings undeniable additional potential

That said, it is worth flagging that the USD30bn world cup spending is alone almost three
times the cumulated backlog of the three main MENA players, or 18 times the size of their
current Qatari order books.

Page 6 Deutsche Bank AG/London

5 December 2010 Banking MENA Equities Strategy

Figure 8: MENA contractors backlog (USD m) Figure 9: MENA contractors Qatari backlog (USD m)

8,000 35,000
30,000
30,000
6,020
6,000 25,000

20,000
4,062
4,000
15,000

10,000
2,000
1,326
5,000
1,102 406 93
-
- OCI ARTC DSI Qatar WC 2022
OCI ARTC DSI spending

Source: Deutsche Bank, company data Source: Deutsche Bank, company data

While we expect competition from large international contractors (most likely Europeans,
Australian, South African) as well as, to a lesser extent, from the non listed Saudi contractors,
we believe our MENA contractors under coverage will have a role to play. Both OCI and
Arabtec have experience in building stadiums in the region and DSI is involved in certain
niches (namely MEP and water infrastructures) that would be needed. Finally, all our
contractors have an excellent track-record in building hotels/real estate projects in the region.

Due to long lead times, we calculate a NPV of c.USD1bn

In order to quantify the potential impact for contractors, we have attempted to value the NPV
of Qatar’s projects. We assume construction to start in 2013 and last for 10 years until 2022,
a 7% net margin on the projects and a 12.5% discount rate. The NPV would work out at
USD919m.

Figure 10: NPV of Qatar’s WC 2022 USD30bn package

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Share of spending (%) 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Years 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000
Net margin (7%) 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210 210
Discount rate 12.50%
NPV 919
Source: Deutsche Bank

Then we assumed our three contractors under coverage will get together 20% market share,
split between OCI (10%), Arabtec (7%) and DSI (3%). The potential enhancement of backlog
could be significant over 10 years but the impact on valuation would be rather limited. Due to
their relative smaller size, we estimate that Arabtec and DSI to be much more sensitive to
any incremental award in Qatar related to the World Cup.

Figure 11: Potential impact on backlog / valuation of our new awards scenario
Market shares Market Orders Backlog % Value Market Cap %
share

OCI 10% 3,000 6,020 50% 92 9,277 1%

Arabtec 7% 2,100 4,062 52% 64 605 11%
DSI 3% 900 1,326 68% 28 568 5%
Total 20% 6,000 11,408 53% 184 10,450 2%
Source: Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 7

5 December 2010 Banking MENA Equities Strategy

Appendix 1
Important Disclosures
Additional information available upon request
For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on a security mentioned in this report, please see
the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at
http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr.

Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the
undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in
this report. Nabil Ahmed

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-

holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price 500
from current price to projected target price plus pro- 450 53 %
400
jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors 350 40 %
buy the stock. 300
Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share- 250
200
holder return, we recommend that investors sell the 150 18 % 7%
stock 100 15 % 8%
50
Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months 0
out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend
Buy Hold Sell
either a Buy or Sell.
Notes:
1. Newly issued research recommendations and target Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship
prices always supersede previously published research. Global Universe
2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:
Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of
10% or more over a 12-month period
Hold: Expected total return (including dividends)
between -10% and 10% over a 12-month period
Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of -
10% or worse over a 12-month period

Page 8 Deutsche Bank AG/London

5 December 2010 Banking MENA Equities Strategy

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Deutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas (known as SOLAR ideas) that are consistent
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