Hierarchy of Public Investments in Turkey

Action Plan of 60th

Turkish Government

9. Development Plan of Medium Term Invest.

Turkey (2007-2013) Program (2010-2012)

Strategic Plan of MoT 3 Year Investment

(2009-2013) Program of MoT

Strategic Plan of TCDD 3 Year Investment

(2010-2014) Program of TCDD
 9th Development Plan
(2007-2013)

Prepared by State Planning Organisation,

Approved by Grand National Assembly,

Sets the vision of Turkey,

States macroeconomic projections and targets,

Defines the strategy to reach targets in line with
EU accession process.

“Passenger transportation with highspeed train will be

started on the core network consisting of the
İstanbul-Ankara-Sivas, Ankara-Afyon-İzmir and
Ankara-Konya corridors.”
 Strategic Plan of
Ministry of Transport

Prepared for 3 years,

Sets the vision of MoT,

Defines tangible targets,

Assign investment projects to specific targets

“In order to increase number of railway passengers

by 50%,1.503 km new high speed train lines will be
built on the Bulgarian Border-İstanbul-Ankara-Sivas,
Ankara-Afyon-İzmir and Ankara-Konya corridors.”
 Reference Documents for
High Speed Railway Planning

Strategy for Transport

10th Transport Forum
Master Plan

Transport Infrastructure
Needs Assessment
Study (TINA)
 Strategy for Transport Master Plan

Prepared by Istanbul Technical University,

Very detailed study (13 working groups, 32
academicians and 30 advisors)

Analyses current situations of transport modes,

Depicts problems and solutions,

Sets out strategy and provides inventory for
preparation of the transport master plan.

“The most suitable line for high speed railway is

Ankara-Istanbul line. Moreover, new high speed railway
investments should be placed on the east-west
corridor for the integration with TEN-T network.”
Proposed East-West HSR Corridor
 10th Transport Forum
Sep 27 – Oct 01 2009

Established by law as a national platform,

Aim is to debate and set the strategic goals for
the Ministry of Transport,

Special interest was given to 2023 targets,

24 workshops carried out for 6 transport modes,

Senior representatives from governments,
industry, civil societies and scientific
communities participated.
 TARGETS for 2023
HEDEF 2023

5th TARGET To finish ongoing high speed rail lines (1.311 km)
until 2012.
Tiflis
Kapııkule

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k
Adapazarıı Kars
Çankıırıı Amasya

Bandıırma OSMANELİİ Erzurum

BURSA İŞEHİ
İŞ İR
ESKİŞ ANKARA Irmak Erzincan
Yerköy
Balııkesir SİİVAS
Yozgat
Alayunt Polatlıı
ği
Divriğ
a
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a
üt
K

ğa
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Elazığ Van Gölü Kapııköy
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MALATYA Tatvan
Batman

Aydıın KONYA Kurtalan

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ur

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ANTALYA Karaman ADANA
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M
ey
da
İskenderun n
HSR LINES LENGTH ek
be
z
Musul
Ankara - Đstanbul 533 km Halep
Kerkük

Ankara - Konya 212 km

Ankara - Sivas 460 km : CONVANTIONAL LINES
Bursa - Osmaneli 106 km : HIGH SPEED LINES
TOTAL 1.311 km Bağdad

8 /53
8
 TARGETS for 2023

6th TARGET To complete core high speed rail network

(6.792 km) until 2023.

BULGARİİSTAN

Kapııkule
y

Bartıın GÜRCİİSTAN
kö

Kıırklareli
ez

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rk

n
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en
su
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öy

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YUNANİİSTAN Karasu

G
nk

ağ

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kir

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İzmit
Uz

Te

şa
H.Paş Havza şamba
Çarş
Rota Adapazarıı Çankıırıı
Arifiye Kars
Amasya
ERMENİİSTAN
Bandıırma Osmaneli
Çorum Turhal
Bursa
İnönü ANKARA Horasan
Irmak Erzincan Erzurum
şehir
Eskiş Yııldıızeli
Balııkesir Sincan Aralıık
SİİVAS
Yerköy Yozgat
Polatlıı Bostan kaya
Hanlıı NAHÇİİVAN
ah lı
üt an

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ği
ya

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Ta

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şak
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İZMİİR u ş
Muş
u

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uy

Menemen Tatvan Van

MALATYA
ak

ş
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ar

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K

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ğde
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Sü

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tla

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ç

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ur

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pa

ış
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rt

ür Mardin
a

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an r Narlıı Nusaybin
iye Gaziantep
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Manavgat Mersin Yenice pa
şa
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Musul
İskenderun Kerkük
Alanya
IRAK
SURİİYE

Halep

: CONVANTIONAL LINES

: HIGH SPEED LINES

 Transport Infrastructure Needs Assessment
Study (TINA, 2007)

Funded by European Union,

Carried out by TINA Vienna Gmbh,

Objectives are:

to develop a multi-modal transport network
(Core Network) to extend the European
Union's TEN-T into Turkey,

preparation of a traffic forecast with a time
horizon until 2020,

assessment of the projects on the core
network,

set up a GIS data management system.
 Traffic Forecast in
HSR Feasibility Studies

Existing passenger traffic is obtained from traffic counts or

statistics for road, rail and air transport.

Diverted traffic values are calculated through Value of
Time analysis.

Generated traffic are calculated as a percentage of
diverted traffic.

Demographic factors such as population, GDP, vehicle
ownership and past traffic increase rates are analyzed
and necessary correlation coefficients are obtained.

Then, future traffic increase rates are calculated through
computer models based on

correlation coefficients,

UN forecast values for population increase rates,

European GDP increase rates foreseen,
 Traffic Forecast in TINA

Based on traffic flows between domestic zones,

Base year (2004) data taken from available observed data
or simulated when necessary,

1 socio-economic scenario and 3 infrastructure scenarios
were defined for 2020,

To generate passenger forecasts, base year O/D matrix
was adjusted based on forecasts of socio-economic and
demographic conditions at the regional level,

Then, generalized travel costs were adjusted based on the
assumed changes to the networks and other level-of-
service components,

Resulting passenger O/D matrices were assigned to the 3
different networks scenarios.

Results of the forecasts were used to assess Core Network.
 Socio-Economic Scenario
~Population~

Population growth rate between 1995 and 2004 was
almost 2%,

Population growth was assumed to continue as seen in
the table below,

Resulting population estimation for Turkey was 86 million
in 2020 and 93 million in 2030.
 Socio-Economic Scenario
~GDP and Car Ownership~

Turkey’s GDP increased almost 10% in 2004, 5.9% in 2003
and 7.8% in 2002.

The rate of 6% was chosen based on this trend, in
consistent with OECD forecasts.

To estimate car ownership rate, a logistic model was used
with saturation around 700 cars per 1000 inhabitants,

The model projected a very significant increase from
80/1000 in 2004 to 600/1000 in 2030.
Traffic Analysis Zones
 Passenger Transport Modelling

Classical four stage modeling was used:

trip generation,

trip distribution,

modal split,

traffic assignment

Considered modes for passenger transport modeling
were road (subgroups: bus and car), rail and air.

The trip purposes for segmentation of the demand side
were business trips, holiday trips and private trips.
 Trip Generation

Numbers of trips per trip purpose were estimated for

each traffic zone from available data,

Number of inhabitants by gender and age classes, car
ownership, employment and regional economic
performance were used to determine the trips
generated in a region.

The trip purposes for segmentation of the demand side
were business trips, holiday trips and private trips.
 Trip Generation

To calculate generated trips “category analysis”

approach was incorporated,

Equation used for trip generation is:

There were 81 zones, 18 age groups, 3 trip purposes

and 2 gender groups. Data taken from census stats.

There was no data on long-distance mobility behavior.
Therefore, studies of West European countries were
transferred to Turkey.

To decrease errors, Turkish urban travel studies and
regional GDP values used to adjust the trip frequency
per region
 Trip Generation

Non-linear Adjustment of Trip Demand between rich and poor Regions

 Average Trip Rates

Average trip rates for inter-regional trips

These values refer to round trips,

Only motorized inter-regional trips,

The applied trip rates vary considerably between rich
and poor regions
 Calculation of Attracted Trips

Region’s attractiveness is responsible for the number of trips that have a
destination in a specific region

Attractiveness of a region is based on different structural variables
influencing the destination choice.
Trip Purpose Affecting Structural Variable

number of people employed

Business
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
number of inhabitants
number of university students
Private number of universities
number of people working in retail
number of beds in hospital per inhabitant
number of beds for tourist purposes
Holiday
length of coastline
 Calculation of Attracted Trips

Attractiveness of region j is determined for a specific trip purpose p
(e.g. business) and the relating structural variable (e.g. GDP, number
of inhabitants) using the following equation:

If more than one structural data variable is applied for one purpose,
the attractiveness of a region j for trip purpose p is given by following
equation:

To take into account some of the inter-regional trips remain “caught”

inside in large traffic cells, an additional adjustment was performed:
 Trip Distribution

In this step, a certain share of the trips estimated in one

region was distributed to other regions.

To do this, the attractiveness of a region was quantified
by taking into consideration mainly socio-economic and
tourism-related information.

Considering attractiveness of a destination and travel
impedances between regions (monetary costs of a
journey, travel time), the trips generated within an origin
region are distributed to destination regions

Thus, an O/D matrix was generated which contains the
passenger volumes between an origin region and a
destination region.
 Modal Split

In this step, a certain share of the trips estimated in one

region was distributed to other regions.

To do this, the attractiveness of a region was quantified
by taking into consideration mainly socio-economic and
tourism-related information.

Considering attractiveness of a destination and travel
impedances between regions (monetary costs of a
journey, travel time), the trips generated within an origin
region are distributed to destination regions

Thus, an O/D matrix was generated which contains the
passenger volumes between an origin region and a
destination region.
 Traffic Assignment

In this step, a certain share of the trips estimated in one

region was distributed to other regions.

To do this, the attractiveness of a region was quantified
by taking into consideration mainly socio-economic and
tourism-related information.

Considering attractiveness of a destination and travel
impedances between regions (monetary costs of a
journey, travel time), the trips generated within an origin
region are distributed to destination regions

Thus, an O/D matrix was generated which contains the
passenger volumes between an origin region and a
destination region.
Traffic Forecast Results