INTRODUCTION

Need for simulation:

Mathematical models can be used to describe and analyse the characteristics of

a given system. Such models can again be solved analytically to determine the
optimal solutions or to describe the system. For Ex: A decision making problem
could be modelled as linear programming problem and then solved using
simplex techniques to obtain an optimal solution. Similarly a queuing system
that meets a certain set of assumptions can be described in terms of the queue
length, waiting time and so on.

Despite the fact that mathematical modelling can and does help to analyse a
wide variety of problems there are many situations which are to complex to be
handled this way. For Ex: A given queuing situation may not meet all the
assumptions of any of the queuing models and therefore not lend itself to
modelling. In these circumstances, it is often possible to simulate the given
system and study its behaviour. Simulation may also be employed to estimate
the intact of system changes when experimentation with the real system may
not be feasible.

Definition:
To simulate is to imitate. In general terms, simulation involves developing a
model of some real phenomenon and then performing experiments on the model
evolved. It is a descriptive and not optimizing technique.
In simulation, a given system is copied and the variables and constant
associated with it are manipulated in the artificial environment to examine the
behaviour of the system.
For Ex: Aero dynamic testing scaled down models of aeroplanes are built and
placed in the wind tunnels.
Using simulation, an analyst can introduce the constants and variables related to
the problem, setup the possible course of action and establish criteria which act
as measures of effectiveness.

Process of Simulation:
There are four phases of the simulation process. They are:
1. Definition of the problem and statement of objectives.
2. Construction of an appropriate model.
3. Experimentation with the model constructed.
4. Evaluation of the results of simulation.

The first step in problem solving of any situation is to identify and clearly define
the problem and list the objectives that the solution is intended to achieve. A
clear statement not only facilitates the development of an appropriate model but
also provides a basis for evaluation of the simulation results.

Second step in simulation is the development of a suitable model. During the

course of simulation, the model mimics the important elements of what is being
simulated. A simulation model may be a physical or mathematical model, a
mental conception, or a combination.
Collection of data is a significant aspect of model development, and the quantum
and type of data needed are directly governed by the scope and the extent of
the detail of the simulation. The data are needed both for model, development
and evaluation.
Once the simulation model is developed, the next step is to run it. If the model is
deterministic, with all its parameters known and constant, the only a single run
would suffice. On the other hand, if the simulation is stochastic in nature, with
the parameters subject to random variation, then a number of runs would be
needed to get a clear picture of the model performance. The greater the
variability inherent in the simulation results, the larger would be simulation runs
needed to obtain a reasonable degree of confidence that the results are truly
indicative of the system behaviour.

The last step in the process of simulation is to analyse and interpret the results
of the runs. The interpretation of results is, in large measures, dependent on the
extent to which the simulation model portrays the reality.

Types of Simulation System:

1. Monte Carlo simulation.
2. Simulation of an inventory system.
3. Simulation of queuing system.

Monte Carlo Simulation:

Monte Carlo method is a probabilistic simulation method. Also called as

computer simulation, it can be described as a numerical technique that involves
modelling a stochastic system with objective of predicting the systems
behaviour.
In Monte Carlo method, a given problem is solved by simulating the original data
with random number generators.
It requires two things:
1. We must have a model that represents an image of the reality of the
situation. Here the model refers to the probability distribution of the
variable in the given question.
2. The second thing required for simulation is a mechanism to simulate the
model to capture the random nature of the given system. Such a
mechanism can be any random generated consisting of a device or a
procedure by which random numbers can be determined and/or selected.

Simulation of an inventory system:

In an Inventory system problem, when variation is observed in both, the demand
and the lead time, then the analytical approach gives way to the technique of
simulation.

For example:
If a dealer of a certain product for which the probability distribution of daily
demand and the probability distribution of the lead time, both are varying, wants
to calculate the total inventory costs(made up of the ordering, holding, and
shortage costs) for a specific re-order levels and re-order quantities to take
further decision. To solve such problems we can design a simulation plan.

In a problem like this, which requires the determinations of two parameters

(order quantity and re-order level), the approach is to set up a two-way table of
costs with various combination of the two parameter values. We would simulate
each combination a large number of times, compute the total cost corresponding
to each one enter it into the table. This procedure will enable us to locate the
neighborhood of the optimum and select the plan with approximately the lower
cost.

Here the cost estimates for a given combination of order quantity, re-order level
and starting inventory level depend upon the tracking pattern adopted and the
starting point chosen .It is therefore desirable, that a number of cost estimates
be made by varying the starting point and the tracking pattern, and then and
average value may be determined.

Steps are as follows:-

1. We shall assign a coding system that relates the identified values of the
variable(s) to the random numbers. The coding system to be used would be
based on the probabilities and random number.

2. We select an appropriate random number table to draw numbers from .Also

we decide the tracking pattern for identifying the random numbers. We shall use
the random number table and simulate the data on demand using random
number. The simulation of the lead time would be similarly done.

Simulation of Queuing System

The queuing system is the most typical problem in the discrete event system.
Computer system, communication system and transportation system are all
typical tangible or intangible queuing system. The computer simulation is a quite
effective way to solve the queuing problem and analysing the performances of
the queuing system, which construct a real system model with computer
program, and attain the performances and the characters changing with time
through computation.

Some Conceptions in the Queuing System:

The queuing problem is a problem about a balance between average waiting

time and idle time of server, i.e how to queue to be both good for entity and
server .The queuing theory is a science to solve such problem, it is also named
random serve theory since the arrival time of entities and the time of serve
acceptance are usually random variable obeying some probability distribution. In
the simulation of the queuing system, there are some conceptions usually being
used as below:

A. Entity arrival mode

The entity is limited or limitless, and the arrival of the entity is in individual or in
batch. Entity arrival mode is often described with arrival interval. The random
arrival mode Applied in the system appears very complex, and different
probability distributions have to be adopted for different Systems. Index
distribution, normal distribution, poisson distribution and etc are quite common.

B. Service mode

Its character is that its server may be single or multiple, and service time
distribution is nothing about time or something about time, and server’s service
time is certain or random.random service time is described with probability
distribution, for instance normal distribution,

C. The queuing rule and the criteria of the queuing system

There are some queuing rules such as FCFS, random served, priority served and
SCFS, etc. With studying the performances of the queuing system.

Single-server m/m/1model

a. The construction of model

b. The simulation of model

Iv. Multi-server m/m/c model

a. The construction of the model�

b. The model of the simulation

We need to simulate the queuing problem generally when A given queuing

situation may not meet all the assumptions of any of the queuing models and
therefore not lend itself to modelling.

For Example: If the manager of a store has to determine whether more

attendants be hired for the store for raising the level of service. Idle time cost
for the mechanics and the wages required to be paid to the attendants should be
known, he wishes to ascertain how many attendants may be employed to
minimize the total cost involved. Simulation helps the manager to solve such
problems.

Steps:

1. We assign random numbers to each observed arrival time interval based on

the likelihood of the occurrence of each time interval.

2. Cumulative Probabilities for the inerarrival time would be determined.

3. The same procedure is followed for the service time distribution.

4. Cumulative probabilities and the random number coding for each of the
observed service times.

Based on this the Arrival and waiting times for the

mechanics along with the queue length will get determined, this information will
help the manager to determine the total cost for decision making.

Applications of Simulation:

Simulation in education and training

Simulation is often used in the training of civilian and military personnel.

This usually occurs when it is prohibitively expensive or simply too
dangerous to allow trainees to use the real equipment in the real world. In
such situations they will spend time learning valuable lessons in a "safe"
virtual environment. Often the convenience is to permit mistakes during
training for a safety-critical system. For example, in simSchool teachers
practice classroom management and teaching techniques on simulated
students, which avoids "learning on the job" that can damage real
students. There is a distinction, though, between simulations used for
training and Instructional simulation.

• Training simulations typically come in one of three categories:

• "live" simulation (where actual players use genuine systems in a real
environment);
• "virtual" simulation (where actual players use simulated systems in a
synthetic environment ), or
• "Constructive" simulation (where virtual players use simulated systems in
a synthetic environment). Constructive simulation is often referred to as
"war gaming" since it bears some resemblance to table-top war games in
which players command armies of soldiers and equipment that move
around a board.

Simulations in education are somewhat like training simulations. They

focus on specific tasks. The term 'microworld' is used to refer to
educational simulations which model some abstract concept rather than
simulating a realistic object or environment, or in some cases model a real
world environment in a simplistic way so as to help a learner develop an
understanding of the key concepts. Normally, a user can create some sort
of construction within the microworld that will behave in a way consistent
with the concepts being modeled. Seymour Papert was one of the first to
advocate the value of microworlds, and the Logo (programming language)
programming environment developed by Papert is one of the most famous
 microworlds. As another example, the Global Challenge Award online
STEM learning web site uses microworld simulations to teach science
concepts related to global warming and the future of energy. Other
projects for simulations in educations are Open Source Physics, NetSim
etc.

• Management games (or business simulations) have been finding favour in

business education in recent years.[9] Business simulations that
incorporate a dynamic model enable experimentation with business
strategies in a risk free environment and provide a useful extension to
case study discussions.
• Social simulations may be used in social science classrooms to illustrate
social and political processes in anthropology, economics, history, political
science, or sociology courses, typically at the high school or university
level. These may, for example, take the form of civics simulations, in
which participants assume roles in a simulated society, or international
relations simulations in which participants engage in negotiations, alliance
formation, trade, diplomacy, and the use of force.

Entertainment simulation:

Computer and video games

Simulation games, as opposed to other genres of video and computer

games, represent or simulate an environment accurately. Moreover, they
represent the interactions between the playable characters and the
environment realistically. These kinds of games are usually more complex
in terms of game play.[29] Simulation games have become incredibly
popular among people of all ages.[30] Popular simulation games include
SimCity, Tiger Woods PGA Tour and Virtonomics.

Film

Computer-generated imagery is “the application of the field of 3D

computer graphics to special effects”. This technology is used for visual
effects because they are high in quality, controllable, and can create
effects that would not be feasible using any other technology either
because of cost, resources or safety.[31] Computer-generated graphics can
be seen in many live action movies today, especially those of the action
genre. Further, computer generated imagery has almost completely
supplanted hand-drawn animation in children's movies which are
increasingly computer-generated only. Examples of movies that use
computer-generated imagery include Finding Nemo, 300 and Iron Man.

Theme park rides

Simulator rides are the progeny of military training simulators and

commercial simulators, but they are different in a fundamental way. While
military training simulators react realistically to the input of the trainee in
real time, ride simulators only feel like they move realistically and move
according to prerecorded motion scripts.
City and urban simulation

A city simulator can be a city-building game but can also be a tool used by urban
planners to understand how cities are likely to evolve in response to various
policy decisions. AnyLogic is an example of modern, large-scale urban simulators
designed for use by urban planners.

Classroom of the future

The "classroom of the future" will probably contain several kinds of simulators, in
addition to textual and visual learning tools. This will allow students to enter the
clinical years better prepared, and with a higher skill level. The advanced student
or postgraduate will have a more concise and comprehensive method of
retraining — or of incorporating new clinical procedures into their skill set — and
regulatory bodies and medical institutions will find it easier to assess the
proficiency and competency of individuals.

Digital Lifecycle Simulation

Simulation solutions are being increasingly integrated with CAx (CAD, CAM,
CAE....) solutions and processes. The use of simulation throughout the product
lifecycle, especially at the earlier concept and design stages, has the potential of
providing substantial benefits. These benefits range from direct cost issues such
as reduced prototyping and shorter time-to-market, to better performing
products and higher margins. However, for some companies, simulation has not
provided the expected benefits. Nearly all best-in-class manufacturers use
simulation early in the design process .The successful use of Simulation, early in
the lifecycle, has been largely driven by increased integration of simulation tools
with the entire CAD, CAM and PLM solution-set.

Disaster Preparedness and Simulation Training

Simulation training has become a method for preparing people for disasters.
Simulations can replicate emergency situations and track how learners respond.
Disaster preparedness simulations can involve training on how to handle
terrorism attacks, natural disasters, pandemic outbreaks, or other life-
threatening emergencies.

One organization that has used simulation training for disaster preparedness is
CADE (Center for Advancement of Distance Education). CADE has used a video
game to prepare emergency workers for multiple types of attacks. As reported
by News-Medical.Net,”The video game is the first in a series of simulations to
address bioterrorism, pandemic flu, smallpox and other disasters

The benefits of emergency training through simulations are that learner

performance can be tracked through the system. This allows the developer to
make adjustments as necessary or alert the educator on topics that may require
additional attention. Other advantages are that the learner can be guided or
trained on how to respond appropriately before continuing to the next
emergency segment—this is an aspect that may not be available in the live-
environment. Some emergency training simulators also allows for immediate
feedback, while other simulations may provide a summary and instruct the
learner to engage in the learning topic again.
In a live-emergency situation, emergency responders do not have time to waste.
Simulation-training in this environment provides an opportunity for learners to
gather as much information as they can and practice their knowledge in a safe
environment. They can make mistakes without risk of endangering lives and be
given the opportunity to correct their errors to prepare for the real-life
emergency.

Sales process simulators

Simulations are useful in modeling the flow of transactions through business

processes, such as in the field of sales process engineering, to study and
improve the flow of customer orders through various stages of completion (say,
from an initial proposal for providing goods/services through order acceptance
and installation). Such simulations can help predict the impact of how
improvements in methods might impact variability, cost, labor time, and the
quantity of transactions at various stages in the process.

Robotics simulators

A robotics simulator is used to create embedded applications for a specific (or

not) robot without being dependent on the 'real' robot. In some cases, these
applications can be transferred to the real robot (or rebuilt) without
modifications. Robotics simulators allow reproducing situations that cannot be
'created' in the real world because of cost, time, or the 'uniqueness' of a
resource.

Few Other Applications Of Simulations Are:

• Engineering, technology or process simulation

• Space Shuttle Countdown Simulation
• Satellite Navigation Simulators
• Communication Satellite Simulation
• Automobile simulator
• Marine simulators
Military simulations
Biomechanics simulators

Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation

Advantages:
1. The chief merit of the simulation technique is its capacity to lend itself to
problems that are cumbersome, or impossible to handle mathematically
using analytical methods.
2. This technique allows the analyst to experiment with the system
behaviour without subjecting it to the risk that would be inherent in
experimenting with the real system.
 3. It compresses time to enable the manager visualize the long term effects
in a quick manner.
4. Simulation is often used to test proposed analytical solutions as well.
5. From the analyst point of view the benefit of simulation is that the results
of taking a particular course of action can be estimated to its
implementation in the real world.
6. With the computer simulation, the cost of the development of the system
can be reduced, and the safety of the experiment and the debugging, thus
it will bring great society effort and economic effort.
Disadvantages:
1. Simulation technique doesn’t represent a methodology for derivation of
optimal solutions to the given problems.
2. The simulation approach yields only estimates which are subject to
sampling errors.
3. Simulation at large scale is not economical because it requires
considerable time and efforts to develop a model.
4. Another serious limitation of simulation is that it is a tool of solution
evaluation and thus does not generate problem solutions.