برقيات السفارة الأمريكية فى تل أبيب - ويكيليكس

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
2007-06-13 2010-12-19 Embassy
07TELAVIV1732 SECRET
16:04 21:09 Tel Aviv
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FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1626
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 001732
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TAGS: PREL PTER PHUM MARR MASS KPAL KWBG EG IS
SUBJECT: ISA CHIEF DISKIN ON SITUATION IN THE GAZA
STRIP
AND WEST BANK
REF: TEL AVIV 1705
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d).
¶1. (S) SUMMARY: In a June 11 meeting that entailed

discussion of the benchmarks (reftel), Israeli Security
Agency (ISA) Head Yuval Diskin shared his assessment of the
current situation in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, painting a
picture of a desperate, disorganized, and demoralized Fatah
in the Gaza Strip, versus a well-organized and ascendant
Hamas. Speaking before the dramatic events of June 12-13 in
Gaza, Diskin qualified that Hamas is currently not in a
position to completely destroy Fatah. Diskin said that he
opposes USSC LTG Dayton's proposal to equip security forces
loyal to Palestinian Authority President Abbas and Fatah, as
he is concerned that the provisions will end up in the hands
4
of Hamas. He claimed that the security forces loyal to Abbas
and Fatah have been penetrated by Hamas, and pointed to a
recent incident in which Hamas reportedly seized heavy
machine guns from Abbas' Presidential Guard. Diskin noted
that the failed hostage-taking attempt two days earlier at
the Kissufim crossing had been carried out by Palestinian
Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Al-Aksa Martyrs Brigades militants,
and led by PIJ. He said that ISA had no prior information
about the attack, and described it as "operationally
creative." Diskin said that overall counter-tunnel
cooperation with Egyptian security forces has improved over
the last two months, but claimed that that the Egyptians
still only react to intelligence supplied by ISA, and are
otherwise not proactive.
¶2. (S) SUMMARY, CONT.: Diskin described the overall security

situation in the West Bank as comparatively better, and
praised the level of cooperation ISA receives from the
Palestinian security services operating in the West Bank.
That said, he lamented what he characterized as a crisis of
leadership in Fatah, with PA President Abbas already focusing
on his retirement, and his possible successors incapable of
leading the Palestinians in both the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip. Diskin especially criticized PA National Security
Advisor Muhammad Dahlan as attempting to lead his loyalists
in the Gaza Strip by "remote control" from abroad. Diskin
said that Fatah is on its "last legs," and that the situation
bodes ill for Israel. He noted his intention to discuss some
ideas on how to deal with the situation with PM Olmert in the
near future, and said he would share his thoughts afterwards
with the Ambassador. END SUMMARY.
--------------------------------------------- ------------
DISKIN DESCRIBES SITUATION FOR FATAH IN GAZA AS
DESPERATE
--------------------------------------------- ------------
¶3. (S) Speaking before the dramatic events of June 12-13,

Diskin said that Hamas is dominant in the Gaza Strip, but is
not yet strong enough there to completely destroy Fatah. The
difference, he explained, is between the "quality" of Hamas,
and the "quantity" of Fatah's security apparatus that is
loyal to Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas. Hamas
5
is dominant in most areas. In the Gaza Strip, it can win
every fight with Fatah, but Fatah can do it harm in its
"chaotic" way of fighting. Diskin said that some Fatah
members are being paid by National Security Advisor Muhammad
Dahlan, while others are being paid by Abbas -- especially
the Presidential Guard. He noted that the Presidential Guard
had been involved in the June 10 clashes at the Rafah
crossing.
--------------------------------------------- -------------
BUT NOTES HE OPPOSES PLAN TO SUPPORT FATAH
SECURITY FORCES
--------------------------------------------- -------------
¶4. (S) Diskin noted that he had heard earlier on June 11 from
Palestinian sources that Hamas had succeeded in stealing some
"Doshka" heavy machine guns from the Presidential Guard. He
said that this is an example of why he does not support "at
this time" USSC LTG Dayton's proposal to supply ammunition
and weapons to Fatah: "I support the idea of militarily
strengthening Fatah, but I am afraid that they are not
organized to ensure that the equipment that is transferred to
them will reach the intended recipients." Diskin claimed
that most of the Fatah-aligned security forces have been
penetrated by Hamas. He reiterated that he does not want to
see any equipment transferred to them before he is convinced
that the equipment will arrive at its intended destination.
¶5. (S) Diskin raised as another matter the question of

whether Fatah will be able to hold on to any equipment
provided to it. He expressed concern about Fatah's
organizational capabilities, and what he characterized as a
TEL AVIV 00001732 002 OF 003
glaring lack of leadership: "Dahlan is trying to manage

Fatah's security forces by remote control. We are not even
sure where he is." (NOTE: Diskin's aide said he believed
Dahlan is in Cairo. But on June 13, Diskin told the
Ambassador that Dahlan had surfaced in Amman the day before.
END NOTE.) Diskin continued: "Fatah is in very bad shape in
the Gaza Strip. We have received requests to train their
6
forces in Egypt and Yemen. We would like them to get the
training they need, and to be more powerful, but they do not
have anyone to lead them." Diskin also made clear his
reservations on training Palestinians in a country like Yemen
with a strong Al-Qaida presence.
¶6. (S) Diskin's aide said that the security forces at the
Rafah crossing are strong, but are demoralized with the
overall situation in the Gaza Strip. Diskin added that their
communications with the ISA had become "desperate," and
indicated no hope for the future. He observed that there is
a young generation of leaders among Fatah who are being
"pushed" by Dahlan and who have a sense of the urgency of the
situation and what needs to be done. At the same time,
however, they are not behaving in a way that is to be
expected by people in their urgent situation. Diskin
observed, "They are approaching a zero-sum situation, and yet
they ask us to attack Hamas. This is a new development. We
have never seen this before. They are desperate."
--------------------------------------------- -----
DISKIN: SITUATION IN WEST BANK BETTER THAN IN GAZA
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶7. (S) In the West Bank, Diskin said that ISA has established
a very good working relationship with the Preventive Security
Organization (PSO) and the General Intelligence Organization
(GIO). Diskin said that the PSO shares with ISA almost all
the intelligence that it collects. They understand that
Israel's security is central to their survival in the
struggle with Hamas in the West Bank.
¶8. (S) While he described this overall relationship with the

Palestinian security services in the West Bank as healthy,
Diskin noted that Fatah did not react to the last set of
Hamas attacks in the West Bank due to the current "mood" of
GIO leader Tawfik Tirawi. Diskin explained that Tirawi (whom
he described as psychopathic, cruel, dangerous and prone to
extreme mood swings) is disaffected and feels that his status
has declined, and that he is no longer respected by Abbas.
Diskin claimed that Tirawi also feels that his relationship
with Dahlan has deteriorated. Diskin said that he hopes to
meet with Tirawi the week of June 17 to dissuade him from
7
"doing stupid things, as he is trying to develop ties with
the Dughmush family in the Gaza Strip."
--------------------------------------------- -------------
DISKIN ON ABBAS: HE HAS FAILED. NOBODY CAN LEAD
FATAH NOW
--------------------------------------------- -------------
¶9. (S) Diskin said that Abbas views Fatah as weak and "on its
last legs," and incapable of being rehabilitated within six
months. Stressing that it was his own opinion (and not
necessarily shared by the GOI), Diskin said that Abbas is
starting to become a problem for Israel: "He's a paradox.
He cannot function and do anything. Why is Fatah failing?
Because Abbas has become the 'good guy' whom everyone is
trying to do everything for in order to keep him alive.
Everyone is afraid of the alternative, and yet Abbas is
already talking about how he plans to retire from the
political scene after his term ends in 2008. He knows he is
weak and that he has failed. He has failed to rehabilitate
Fatah. He did not start to take any action when he had the
chance in 2004. Instead of choosing to be the leader for
Fatah, he chose to be a national leader for all
Palestinians." Diskin lamented that the current situation
suggests that nobody can now assume leadership of Fatah.
Dahlan, he said, can only lead in the Gaza Strip -- if that
-- and Marwan Barghouti can lead in the West Bank, but not
the Gaza Strip. "It is something in their blood," he said,
"the leaders of the West Bank cannot rule the Palestinians in
the Gaza Strip and vice versa." Diskin warned that
Palestinian society is disintegrating, and that this bodes
ill for Israel. He said that he has some ideas about how to
address this that he wishes to discuss with PM Olmert, and
would share with the Ambassador afterwards: "We have to give
Fatah the conditions to succeed, but we cannot do this
through your benchmarks (reftel)."
--------------------------------------------- ----------
DISKIN ON ISA COUNTER-TUNNEL COOPERATION WITH
EGYPTIANS
--------------------------------------------- ----------
TEL AVIV 00001732 003 OF 003
8
¶10. (S) Responding to a question from the Ambassador, Diskin
said that cooperation between Egyptian and Palestinian
security forces recently led to the discovery of some tunnels
in the Gaza Strip. He said the ISA occasionally hears that
tunnels are found in the Gaza Strip, and while he is inclined
to believe the information, he admitted that ISA cannot
always verify it. Diskin said that ISA's cooperation with
Egyptian security services has improved over the last two
months after their respective delegations had met. That
said, he claimed that fundamental challenges remain
unresolved: "They react on the intelligence that we provide
to them, but they are not proactive." He lamented that there
has been no dramatic change in the tunnel situation, adding
that there are still many tunnels running under the
Philadelphi corridor.
--------------------------------------------- -------------
DISKIN ON THE FAILED ATTACK AT KISSUFIM; THREATS
ON FAYYAD
--------------------------------------------- -------------
¶11. (S) Referring to the failed June 9 attempt by Palestinian

militants to kidnap Israeli soldiers stationed at the
Kissufim crossing between Israel and the Gaza Strip, Diskin
said that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Al-Aksa Martyrs
Brigades carried out the attempt under PIJ leadership. He
said that the militant who guided the attack was one of PIJ's
main operatives in the northern Gaza Strip. Diskin said that
the attack was staged against an empty post, but designed to
appear dramatic. He admitted the attackers were
operationally very creative, and that ISA had no indication
that the attack was going to take place: "This was another
ISA failure. We had no intelligence on the attack in
advance."
¶12. (S) Responding to the Ambassador's question, Diskin said

that he had not seen any specific evidence about threats to
PA Finance Minister Salam Fayyad. He observed, however, that
as a former Fatah activist, Fayyad ought to be concerned
about his own security. Diskin noted that the man thrown by
9
Hamas militants from the roof of a 15-story building in the
Gaza Strip the day before was a member of Force 17.
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JONES
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TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS KWBG LE SY IS
SUBJECT: MILITARY INTELLIGENCE DIRECTOR YADLIN
COMMENTS ON
GAZA, SYRIA AND LEBANON
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)
¶1. (S) Summary. During a June 12 meeting with the

Ambassador, IDI Director MG Amos Yadlin said that Gaza was
"number four" on his list of threats, preceded by Iran,
Syria, and Hizballah in that order. Yadlin said the IDI has
been predicting armed confrontation in Gaza between Hamas and
Fatah since Hamas won the January 2006 legislative council
elections. Yadlin felt that the Hamas military wing had
initiated the current escalation with the tacit consent of
external Hamas leader Khalid Mishal, adding that he did not
believe there had been a premeditated political-level
decision by Hamas to wipe out Fatah in Gaza. Yadlin
dismissed Fatah's capabilities in Gaza, saying Hamas could
have taken over there any time it wanted for the past year,
but he agreed that Fatah remained strong in the West Bank.
11
Although not necessarily reflecting a GOI consensus view,
Yadlin said Israel would be "happy" if Hamas took over Gaza
because the IDF could then deal with Gaza as a hostile state.
He dismissed the significance of an Iranian role in a
Hamas-controlled Gaza "as long as they don't have a port."
Regarding predictions of war with Syria this summer, Yadlin
recalled the lead-up to the 1967 war, which he said was
provoked by the Soviet Ambassador in Israel. Both Israel and
Syria are in a state of high alert, so war could happen
easily even though neither side is seeking it. Yadlin
suggested that the Asad regime would probably not survive a
war, but added that Israel was no longer concerned with
maintaining that "evil" regime. On Lebanon, Yadlin felt that
the fighting in the Nahr Al-Barid camp was a positive
development for Israel since it had "embarrassed" Hizballah,
adding that IDI had information that the Fatah Al-Islam
terrorist group was planning to attack UNIFIL before it
blundered into its confrontation with the LAF. End Summary.
Gaza Fighting Not Israel's Main Problem

---------------------------------------
¶2. (S) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol Couns and DATT,

called on IDI Director Major General Amos Yadlin June 12.
Noting reports of fierce fighting between Hamas and Fatah in
Gaza that day, the Ambassador asked for Yadlin's assessment.
Yadlin described Gaza as "not Israel's main problem," noting
that it ranked fourth in his hierarchy of threats, behind
Iran, Syria, and Hizballah. Yadlin described Gaza as
"hopeless for now," commenting that the Palestinians had to
realize that Hamas offered no solution. IDI analysts, he
said, had predicted a confrontation in Gaza since Hamas won
the Palestinian Legislative Council elections in January
¶2006. Yadlin commented that Palestinian President Mahmoud
Abbas and Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh had become
personally close despite their ideological differences, but
neither leader had control over those forces under them.
¶3. (S) Yadlin explained that both Fatah and Hamas contained
many factions. The Hamas military wing had been frustrated
since the signing of the Mecca Agreement in January, but
there were also many armed groups in Gaza that were not under
the control of either party. Yadlin cited the example of the
12
Dughmush clan, which had shifted from Fatah to the Popular
Resistance Committees to Hamas before becoming an armed
entity opposed to all of them. After May 15, the Hamas
military wing had sought to export the fighting to Sderot by
launching waves of Qassam rockets. One week later, as a
result of IDF retaliation, they realized the price was too
high and reduced the Qassam attacks.
¶4. (S) In response to the Ambassador's question, Yadlin said

he did not think that day's Hamas attacks on Fatah security
forces were part of a premeditated effort to wipe out Fatah
in Gaza. Instead, they probably represented an initiative of
the military wing with the tacit consent of Khalid Mishal in
Damascus. Mishal was still considering the costs and
benefits of the fighting, but the situation had become so
tense that any incident could lead to street fighting without
any political decision.
Gaza and West Bank Separating

-----------------------------
¶5. (S) The Ambassador asked Yadlin for his assessment of

reports that Fatah forces had been ordered not to fight back.
Yadlin said Mohammed Dahlan had 500 men and the Presidential
Guard had 1,500 more. They understand that the balance of
power favors Hamas, which "can take over Gaza any time it
wants to." Yadlin said he would be surprised if Fatah
fights, and even more surprised if they win. As far as he
was concerned, this had been the case for the past year. The
situation was different in the West Bank, however, where
Fatah remained relatively strong and had even started to
TEL AVIV 00001733 002 OF 002
kidnap Hamas activists. Yadlin agreed that Tawfiq Tirawi had

a power base in the West Bank, but he added that Fatah was
not cohesive.
¶6. (S) The Ambassador commented that if Fatah decided it has

lost Gaza, there would be calls for Abbas to set up a
separate regime in the West Bank. While not necessarily
reflecting a consensus GOI view, Yadlin commented that such a
13
development would please Israel since it would enable the IDF
to treat Gaza as a hostile country rather than having to deal
with Hamas as a non-state actor. He added that Israel could
work with a Fatah regime in the West Bank. The Ambassador
asked Yadlin if he worried about a Hamas-controlled Gaza
giving Iran a new opening. Yadlin replied that Iran was
already present in Gaza, but Israel could handle the
situation "as long as Gaza does not have a port (sea or air)."
War with Syria "Could Happen Easily"

------------------------------------
¶7. (S) Noting Israeli press speculation, the Ambassador

asked Yadlin if he expected war with Syria this summer.
Recalling the 1967 war, Yadlin commented that it had started
as a result of the Soviet Ambassador in Israel reporting on
non-existing Israeli preparations to attack Syria. Something
similar was happening again, he said, with the Russians
telling the Syrians that Israel planned to attack them,
possibly in concert with a U.S. attack on Iran. Yadlin
stated that since last summer's war in Lebanon, Syria had
engaged in a "frenzy of preparations" for a confrontation
with Israel. The Syrian regime was also showing greater
self-confidence. Some Syrian leaders appeared to believe
that Syria could take on Israel military, but others were
more cautious. The fact that both sides were on high alert
meant that a war could happen easily, even though neither
side is seeking one. In response to a question, Yadlin said
he did not think the Asad regime would survive a war, but he
added that preserving that "evil" regime should not be a
matter of concern.
Fighting in Nahr al-Barid Positive for Israel

---------------------------------------------
¶8. (S) The Ambassador asked Yadlin for his views on the
fighting in the Nahr al-Barid refugee camp in northern
Lebanon. Although Yadlin was called to another meeting and
did not have time to elaborate, he answered that the fighting
was positive for Israel because it had embarrassed Hizballah,
which had been unable to adopt a clear-cut position on the
Lebanese Army's action, and because the Fatah al-Islam
terrorist organization had been planning to attack UNIFIL and
14
then Israel before it blundered into its current
confrontation with the LAF. He also agreed that the
confrontation was strengthening the LAF, in fact and in the
eyes of the Lebanese people, which was also good.
¶9. (S) Comment: Yadlin's relatively relaxed attitude toward

the deteriorating security situation in Gaza represents a
shift in IDF thinking from last fall, when the Southern
Command supported a major ground operation into Gaza to
remove the growing threat from Hamas. While many media
commentators continue to make that argument, Yadlin's view
appears to be more in synch with that of Chief of General
Staff Ashkenazi, who also believes that the more serious
threat to Israel currently comes from the north.
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TAGS: PREL PTER MARR MASS KNNP UNSC PK IR IZ ZP
JO, EG, RS, CH, LE, SY, IS
SUBJECT: U/S BURNS' AUGUST 17 MEETING WITH ISRAELI
MOSSAD
CHIEF MEIR DAGAN
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d).
-------
SUMMARY
-------
¶1. (S) In an August 17 meeting, Israeli Mossad Chief Meir

Dagan thanked Under Secretary Burns for America's support of
Israel as evidenced by the previous day's signing of an MOU
that provides Israel with USD 30 billion in security
assistance from 2008-2018. Dagan provided his assessment of
16
the Middle East region, Pakistan and Turkey, stressing
Israel's (a) concern for President Musharraf's well-being,
(b) view that Iran can be forced to change its behavior, and
(c) sense that Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon are
unstable with unclear futures ahead of them. Dagan probed
for more detail about XXXXXXXXXXXX U.S. military assistance
to the Gulf states, and -- while signaling agreement with the
U.S. approach to the Gulf states vis-a-vis Iran -- cautioned that
they may not be able to absorb significant military assistance.
Dagan reviewed Israel's five-pillar strategy concerning
Iran's nuclear program, stressed that Iran is economicall
vulnerable, and pressed for more activity with Iran's
minority groups aimed at regime change. Dagan urged
caution in providing assistance to the Siniora government in
Lebanon, noting Syrian and Iranian efforts to topple the GOL.
¶2. (S) Under Secretary Burns cited the MOU as tangible

evidence of the USG's commitment to Israel, and stressed that
the U.S. would support all of its friends -- Arabs included
-- in the Middle East, and will remain engaged in the region
for the long term. He described U.S. efforts to support the
Musharraf and Karzai governments as they face opposition from
Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and explained that the Gulf
Security Dialogue is meant to bolster Gulf states facing
threats from Iran. The Under Secretary reviewed U.S. efforts
to isolate Iran and increase pressure on it, stressing that
the U.S. is currently focused on the diplomatic track. He
shared USG thinking about the Siniora government in Lebanon,
and urged that the U.S. and Israel continue to consult on
Lebanon. END SUMMARY.
--------------------------------------------
THE SECURITY ASSISTANCE MOU AND ISRAEL'S QME
--------------------------------------------
¶3. (S) Dagan observed that the signing of the MOU on

security assistance could not have come at a better time, and
stressed that Israel appreciated America's support. The
Under Secretary agreed about the timing, noting that the
U.S., Israel and like-minded countries were facing multiple
threats around the world, and that the Middle East is a very
dangerous region. He said that the MOU serves as a concrete
reminder that the U.S. stands by its long-term security
17
commitments to its friends, and is ready to help them with
their needs. The Under Secretary noted that the Middle East
is now at the heart of American interests. Because Egypt
also plays a vital role in the region, the U.S. would also
renew its security assistance commitment to that country.
U.S. relations with the Gulf states were longstanding, and
America would stay true to those friendships, as well. The
Under Secretary stressed that the USG is committed to
Israel's QME. He noted that the majority of systems and
equipment that the U.S. would sell to Egypt and other Arab
partners would replace items that had been sold to those
countries in the past.
-------------------------------------------
DAGAN REVIEWS MIDDLE EAST, PAKISTAN, TURKEY
-------------------------------------------
¶4. (S) Assessing the region, Dagan said Israel sees itself in
the middle of a rapidly changing environment, in which the
fate of one Middle Eastern country is connected to another.
Dagan then said he was concerned about how long Pakistani
President Musharraf would survive: "He is facing a serious
problem with the militants. Pakistan's nuclear capability
could end up in the hands of an Islamic regime." Turning to
Iran, Dagan observed that it is in a transition period.
There is debate among the leadership between Rafsanjani and
Ahmadinejad and their respective supporters. Instability in
Iran is driven by inflation and tension among ethnic
minorities. This, Dagan said, presents unique opportunities,
and Israelis and Americans might see a change in Iran in
TEL AVIV 00002652 002 OF 005
their lifetimes. As for Iraq, it may end up a weak, federal

state comprised of three cantons or entities, one each
belonging to the Kurds, Sunnis and Shias.
¶5. (S) Dagan said that the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia are
concerned about the growing importance of Iran and its
influence on them. They are taking precautions, trying to
increase their own military defensive capabilities.
Referring to the Gulf Security Dialogue (GSD), Dagan warned
18
that these countries would not be able to cope with the
amount of weapons systems they intend to acquire: "They do
not use the weapons effectively."
¶6. (S) Dagan said that Jordan has successfully faced down
threats from the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, and that Egypt
is struggling with the question of who will replace President
Mubarak. He said he sees no hope for the Palestinians, and
that Israel looks at Syria and Lebanon, and sees only
instability. Further afield, it looks at Turkey and sees
Islamists gaining momentum there. The question, he asked, is
how long Turkey's military -- viewing itself as the defender
of Turkey's secular identity -- will remain quiet.
¶7. (S) If Israel's neighborhood were not unstable enough,

Dagan observed, it did not help that Russia is playing a
"very negative role" in the region. He observed that all of
these challenges have to be addressed globally -- they could
not be dealt with individually. Returning to Jordan as an
example, he noted that the more than one million Iraqi
refugees in Jordan were changing Jordanian society, and
forcing it into a new relationship with Saudi Arabia. This
is evidenced by Saudi King Abdullah's recent visit to Jordan,
which implies greater understanding between the Jordanians
and the Saudis.
----------------------------------------
DISCUSSION OF THE GULF SECURITY DIALOGUE
----------------------------------------
¶8. (S) Turning to the Gulf Security Dialogue (GSD), Dagan

said that enhancing the capabilities of the Gulf states "is
the right direction to go," especially as they are afraid of
Iran. Such a U.S. commitment will be a stabilizing factor in
the region. Dagan clarified that he would not oppose U.S.
security assistance to America's Arab partners. He expressed
concern, nevertheless, about the current policies of those
partners -- especially with regards to Syria and Iran. Dagan
added that if those countries must choose between buying
defensive systems from the U.S. or France, then he would
prefer they buy systems from the U.S., as this would bring
them closer to the U.S.
19
¶9. (S) Dagan observed that the challenge facing the U.S. now
is how to unite the Gulf states under a shared policy, and
pointed to Qatar as the weakest link in the chain, trying to
play all sides. Under Secretary Burns replied that the U.S.
is trying to get Qatar and its neighbors to look at issues
from a regional perspective, and to focus on threats in a
unified way. Acting PM Assistant Secretary Mull expressed
understanding for Israel's frustration with how the region
looked, but stressed nevertheless that if America did not
engage the Gulf states through the GSD, the situation would
become much worse. It is critical to get the Gulf states
focused on the Iran threat, and to adopt a regional approach
to countering it. Encouraging and supporting their
counterproliferation efforts would be crucial. Dagan said he
agreed with this approach, stressing that the threat of
radical Islam is real.
--------------------------------------------- ----
IRAN: DAGAN REVIEWS ISRAEL'S FIVE PILLAR STRATEGY
--------------------------------------------- ----
¶10. (S) Dagan led discussion on Iran by pointing out that the
U.S. and Israel have different timetables concerning when
Iran is likely to acquire a nuclear capability. He clarified
that the Israel Atomic Energy Commission's (IAEC) timetable
is purely technical in nature, while the Mossad's considers
other factors, including the regime's determination to
succeed. While Dagan acknowledged that there is still time
to "resolve" the Iran nuclear crisis, he stressed that Iran
is making a great effort to achieve a nuclear capability:
"The threat is obvious, even if we have a different
timetable. If we want to postpone their acquisition of a
TEL AVIV 00002652 003 OF 005
nuclear capability, then we have to invest time and effort

ourselves."
¶11. (S) Dagan described how the Israeli strategy consists of

five pillars:
A) Political Approach: Dagan praised efforts to bring Iran
20
before the UNSC, and signaled his agreement with the pursuit
of a third sanctions resolution. He acknowledged that
pressure on Iran is building up, but said this approach alone
will not resolve the crisis. He stressed that the timetable
for political action is different than the nuclear project's
timetable.
B) Covert Measures: Dagan and the Under Secretary agreed not

to discuss this approach in the larger group setting.
C) Counterproliferation: Dagan underscored the need to

prevent know-how and technology from making their way to
Iran, and said that more can be done in this area.
D) Sanctions: Dagan said that the biggest successes had so

far been in this area. Three Iranian banks are on the verge
of collapse. The financial sanctions are having a nationwide
impact. Iran's regime can no longer just deal with the
bankers themselves.
E) Force Regime Change: Dagan said that more should be done

to foment regime change in Iran, possibly with the support of
student democracy movements, and ethnic groups (e.g., Azeris,
Kurds, Baluchs) opposed to the ruling regime.
¶12. (S) Dagan clarified that the U.S., Israel and like-minded
countries must push on all five pillars at the same time.
Some are bearing fruit now; others would bear fruit in due
time, especially if more attention were placed on them.
Dagan urged more attention on regime change, asserting that
more could be done to develop the identities of ethnic
minorities in Iran. He said he was sure that Israel and the
U.S. could "change the ruling regime in Iran, and its
attitude towards backing terror regimes." He added, "We
could also get them to delay their nuclear project. Iran
could become a normal state."
¶13. (S) Dagan stressed that Iran has weak spots that can be
exploited. According to his information, unemployment
exceeds 30 percent nationwide, with some towns and villages
experiencing 50 percent unemployment, especially among 17-30
year olds. Inflation averages more than 40 percent, and
people are criticizing the government for investing in and
21
sponsoring Hamas, saying that they government should invest
in Iran itself. "The economy is hurting," he said, "and this
is provoking a real crisis among Iran's leaders." He added
that Iran's minorities are "raising their heads, and are
tempted to resort to violence."
¶14. (S) Dagan suggested that more could be done to get the
Europeans to take a tougher stand against Iran. Under
Secretary Burns agreed, and suggested that Israel could help
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by reaching out to the Europeans. Dagan said that Israel is
already doing this, and would continue to do so. Dagan
reiterated the need to strike at Iran's heart by engaging
with its people directly. Voice of America (VOA) broadcasts
are important, but more radio transmissions in Farsi are
needed. Coordination with the Gulf states is helpful, but
the U.S. should also coordinate with Azerbaijan and countries
to the north of Iran, to put pressure on Iran. Russia, he
said, would be annoyed, but it would be fitting, as Russia
appears bent on showing the U.S. that it cannot act globally
without considering Russia.
¶15. (S) Under Secretary Burns stressed that the USG is

focused on Iran not only because of its nuclear program, but
also because it supports terrorism and Shiite militias in
Iraq. The U.S. approach is currently focused on the
diplomatic track and increasing pressure on Iran through
sanctions. Work in the UNSC helps to define the Iranian
nuclear threat as one that affects international security,
and not just that of Israel. While UNSC members Russia,
China and Qatar will water down efforts to increase pressure
on Iran, it is still worthwhile to push for a third sanctions
resolution. In the meantime, the U.S. will encourage the
Europeans, Japan and South Korea to implement unilateral
sanctions against Iran outside the UNSC framework. The U.S.
TEL AVIV 00002652 004 OF 005
will continue to encourage banks and financial institutions

to slow down their operations in Iran and financially isolate
it. Regarding military pressure, the Under Secretary noted
22
that the U.S. has deployed 1-2 carrier battle groups in the
Gulf over the last six months, and that President Bush has
stated that he will interrupt Iran's activity in Iraq. As
for outreach to the Iranian people, the VOA is now
broadcasting programs in Farsi, and the USG is trying to get
more Iranian students to visit the U.S. to promote
people-to-people relations.
-----------------------------------------
PAKISTAN: ISRAEL WORRIED ABOUT MUSHARRAF
-----------------------------------------
¶16. (S) On Pakistan, Dagan said that President Musharraf is

losing control, and that some of his coalition partners could
threaten him in the future. The key question, Dagan said, is
whether Musharraf retains his commander-in-chief role in
addition to his role as president. If not, he will have
problems. Dagan observed that there has been an increase in
the number of attempts on Musharraf's life, and wondered
whether he will survive the next few years. Under Secretary
Burns replied that South Asia has assumed vital importance in
American foreign policy since September 11. The U.S. is
committed to denying Afghanistan as a safe-haven for Taliban
and Al-Qaeda activity. The USG will continue to support
Pakistani President Musharraf, and is seeking to boost his
military defensive capabilities. At the same time, the U.S.
is encouraging Pakistan and Afghanistan to work with each
other militarily. Turning to India, Under Secretary Burns
noted that U.S.-Indian economic cooperation is growing, and
that the USG is working effectively to reduce tensions
between India and Pakistan.
-----------------------------
LEBANON: DAGAN URGES CAUTION
-----------------------------
¶17. (S) Dagan urged caution with respect to Lebanon, noting

that the results of efforts there to bolster the Siniora
government would impact Syria and Iraq. The U.S. and Israel,
he said, are on the edge of achieving something in Lebanon,
and so cannot afford to drop their guard. What is necessary
is finding the right way to support PM Siniora. "He is a
courageous man," Dagan said. Syria, Iran and Hizballah are
23
working hard against him. Dagan noted that much of what is
animating the leadership of Lebanon to take on Syria is
personal: "Hariri, Jumblat and others had their parents
executed by the Syrians." This anti-Syrian sentiment has
forged an alliance based on personal and national interests.
Siniora has worked well with the situation, but Dagan
suggested that the odds are against him. Under Secretary
Burns replied that the U.S. is trying to give PM Siniora as
much support as possible, and that we would continue to
consult closely with Israel on Lebanon. He noted that he
would return to Israel in October.
--------------------
MEETING PARTICIPANTS
--------------------
18, (SBU) Accompanying Under Secretary Burns in the meeting

were:
-- Ambassador Richard H. Jones
-- Acting PM Assistant Secretary Stephen Mull
-- Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International
Security Affairs Mary Beth Long
-- NEA/IPA Deputy Director Nicole Shampaine
-- Embassy Tel Aviv Counselor for Political Research
-- Embassy Tel Aviv Political-Military Officer (notetaker)
¶19. (SBU) Accompanying Mossad Chief Meir Dagan in the meeting

were:
-- Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Salai Meridor
-- Advisor to Foreign Minister Livni Omer Caspi
-- Two unidentified Mossad officials
¶20. (U) Under Secretary R. Nicholas Burns cleared on this

cable.
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TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS IS XF
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR PRESIDENT BUSH'S VISIT TO
ISRAEL
¶1. (C) Israel is preparing to celebrate the sixtieth

anniversary of its declaration of independence on May 8 with
a characteristically Israeli mix of pride in their
achievements and worry about the future. One point that
unites virtually all Israelis -- except for the extreme left
and right -- is their appreciation for President Bush's
friendship and support throughout his two terms. When the
President arrives here next week, he will be greeted warmly
as a friend not just by Israel's political and military
elite, but also by the vast majority of its seven million
people. As one average Israeli who wrote to the Ambassador
put it, the silent majority of Israelis want to thank the
President for sharing with them the celebrations marking
Israel's sixtieth year.
26
Israeli Pride Justified
-----------------------
¶2. (C) Israelis' sense of pride in their achievements is

fully justified. The vision of a strong, democratic Jewish
state that would be a haven for Jews everywhere started as a
desperate dream, as Israel's fledgling army was bolstered by
the arrival of tens of thousands of Holocaust survivors and
hundreds of Jewish WW II veterans who arrived just in time to
help counter the invasion of the new state by the armies of
Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, not to mention the
Palestinians' irregular forces. Today, Israel is very much a
reality, with a vibrantly original Hebrew-speaking cultural
life, a Tel Aviv skyline dominated by gleaming skyscrapers, a
booming high tech-based economy, and the strongest army in
the Middle East. Israel at sixty is firmly Western in its
values but also more diverse ethnically and culturally, less
Europe-oriented, and decidedly more capitalist than the
Israel founded largely by East European-born socialists. For
all of its problems with finding the right electoral formula
to bring about stable governments, Israel's democracy is also
a thriving reality. Israel is the only Middle Eastern
country in which its citizens take for granted the peaceful
transfer of political power via the ballot box.
And Anxieties are Real

----------------------
¶3. (S) Yet this year's celebrations are also tinged with
anxiety. The looming threat of a nuclear-armed Iran, whose
leaders constantly declare their determination to wipe Israel
off the map, weighs heavily on the minds of Israelis, who
regard their country not only through the prism of the
Holocaust but also as the only UN member-state to be
routinely threatened with annihilation. Iran's success in
projecting power directly into the core of the Arab-Israeli
conflict through its ties to Syria, Hizballah and Hamas
compounds the sense of threat. Despite the great diplomatic
achievements represented by the peace treaties with Egypt and
Jordan, Israelis worry about the frayed nature of their
relations with Egypt and are unsure about the outlook of the
Egyptian leadership that will follow Mubarak. Israel enjoys
excellent relations with the Jordanian royal palace and
27
security services, but virtually no contact with Jordan's
largely Palestinian civil society, most of which boycotts any
connections to Israel. Israelis are watching carefully to
see how the U.S. manages the next few years of our
involvement in Iraq and whether we can succeed in stabilizing
Iraq in a way that avoids its becoming either an Iranian
client state or a source of instability that overwhelms
Jordan's fragile balance.
Changing Views on Palestinians

------------------------------
¶4. (S) Closer to home, Israelis' views of their relations

with their Palestinian neighbors are changing as well. In
the aftermath of the Second Intifada, a solid majority of
Israelis has come to accept the need for a Palestinian state
and for Israel to relinquish control of most of the West Bank
(although the exact percentage is still a topic for
discussion, as are the timing and circumstances under which
this would occur). Gone are the days when many Israelis
questioned the existence of a Palestinian national identity,
and today only a small minority -- though still an outspoken
and determined one -- continues to articulate a demand to
retain control of all of the West Bank for
religious/historical reasons. Prime Minister Olmert and
Foreign Minister Livni, both of whom grew up and began their
political careers as strong advocates of Israel's historic
right to all of Jerusalem and the West Bank, are among the
leading examples of Israelis who have become convinced that
only a two-state solution and painful territorial compromise
TEL AVIV 00001005 002 OF 003
will enable Israel to preserve its identity as a democratic,

Jewish state. The growing assertiveness of Israel's large
Arab minority, now about twenty percent of the total
population, is both a further source of concern and an
additional impetus to create a Palestinian state.
¶5. (S) One problem, however, is the lack of a broad-based

Israeli confidence in the Palestinians' capacity to hold up
their end of the land-for-peace bargain. Olmert publicly
28
stresses his confidence in Mahmoud Abbas' determination to
achieve peace, and virtually all Israeli leaders tell us how
much they respect Salam Fayyad, yet few believe that Abbas or
Fayyad enjoy much popular legitimacy among Palestinians. The
public generally accepts the admonitions of Defense Minister
Barak and those of the leaders of the IDF and Israel's
security services that the Palestinian Authority Security
Forces lack the determination to stand up to Hamas if push
comes to shove. The precedent set by Gaza is one that no one
wants to see repeated in the West Bank. The IDF's strategic
concept is heavily rooted in the absolute need to prevent the
hills of the West Bank from becoming sites from which rockets
could be launched at Israel's heavily populated central
plain. Hamas' control of Gaza and the daily rain of rockets
from Gaza on southern Israel pose another kind of problem.
The political leadership is grappling with whether an
Egyptian-negotiated ceasefire in Gaza would calm the
situation or make it worse by strengthening Hamas politically
and militarily while undermining Abbas. The only other
options on the table involve a broader armed conflict with
Hamas, but Israel is constrained by the potential for high
casualties, international condemnation, and most of all, the
lack of a good exit strategy should it decide to invade Gaza
to topple the Hamas regime there. All of these calculations
could be upset at any time by a rocket from Gaza that strikes
a busy school or hospital, thus forcing the Israeli
leadership to order massive retaliation. Israel is working
with us on missile defense options, but their preferred
system will not be operational for two years. One way we
could help would be by offering to provide the kinds of
short-range defenses against rockets that we are using in
Iraq.
Inertia Favors Settlers

-----------------------
¶6. (S) Another outstanding issue is how and when to confront

the settler movement and get serious about outposts and
settlements. Inertia is on the side of the settlers. Even
if they no longer have the sympathy of the Israeli public,
they have powerful allies in the bureaucracy, wealthy backers
in Israel and abroad who are willing to fund the settlement
enterprise, and an IDF that will not challenge the settlers
29
without clear instructions from the political echelon (and
even then may drag its feet). Barak, Deputy PM Ramon, and
others are engaged in discussions with the settler
leadership, and after Secretary Rice's latest visit the PM's
office leaked to the media that he has discussed with Abbas
moving 60,000 settlers out of the West Bank. If true, this
is a dramatic development. Olmert's need to retain the
support of the Shas Party and his political ups and downs
have so far resulted in the settler leadership being much
more determined to hold on than the GOI is to start moving
them out.
Olmert's Political Woes Return

------------------------------
¶7. (S) Even as we finalize the preparations for the

President's visit, Prime Minister Olmert is once again facing
a political crisis. Having survived the Winograd Committee's
final report and weathered four separate, interminable
corruption investigations, in the past few weeks Ehud Olmert
appeared to have regained his political footing and was
openly declaring his plans to run for reelection, possibly in
early 2009. Then suddenly last week, the media was full of
reports that the Attorney General had authorized the police
to initiate a fifth criminal investigation of Olmert. At the
same time, the Attorney General imposed a gag order that
prevented the public from knowing the specifics of the
charges and barred the Prime Minister from mobilizing a
public defense against them. We do not know the details,
though leaks in the media indicate that an American investor
may be involved with the PM in alleged financial misdeeds
sometime before Olmert became Prime Minister. And although
Olmert has survived the four previous investigations,
informed Israelis are suggesting that this time he may be in
much more serious trouble.
¶8. (S) Labor Party insider and Minister of Infrastructure

Fuad Ben Eliezer told the Ambassador May 6 that, according to
TEL AVIV 00001005 003 OF 003
his information, the nature of the charges is such that
30
Olmert may be forced to resign in the near future. Ben
Eliezer echoed comments from other political analysts that if
Olmert resigns, the most likely scenario will be for Livni to
become interim Prime Minister and head of the Kadima Party.
If Livni becomes PM, Ben Eliezer was confident that Barak
would keep Labor inside the Coalition and that elections
could be delayed until some time next year. As Ben Eliezer
put it, the political weakness of the constituent members of
the coalition is the key to its strength, since none of them
have an interest in early elections. At this point, we
cannot predict how accurate Ben Eliezer's prediction is
likely to be, and no one should discount Ehud Olmert's
determination to hold on. But at a minimum, the latest
charges represent an exceptionally unwelcome cloud over
Olmert's head as he prepares to greet the President.
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TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KWBG IS
SUBJECT: CODEL WEXLER'S MEETING WITH MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE
CHIEF YADLIN
REF: A. TEL AVIV 2742

¶B. JERUSALEM 2202
Classified By: Acting DCM Marc Sievers, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)
¶1. (S) Summary. In his December 3 meeting with Israel

Defense Intelligence Director Yadlin, Representative Robert
Wexler (D-Florida) referred to his previous meeting with
Likud Party leader Netanyahu (reftel) and asked for Yadlin's
assessment of the possibility of Israel and the Palestinian
moving forward on the basis of an "economic peace." Yadlin
said Israel's relations with the Palestinians need time; the
next Israeli Prime Minister and perhaps the next PA President
will need the time to build trust. Trying to move directly
to a solution will result in violence as in 2000. Yadlin
said the Palestinians have established two entities. Abbas
and Fayyad rule the West Bank with Israel's support, while
Hamas has established a terrorist entity in Gaza. Yadlin
32
stressed that Israel is on the right track in the West Bank,
while he advocates taking a "much tougher" approach to Gaza.
Yadlin said Israel can find Hamas officials where they live
and work in Gaza. If the firing of rockets and mortars from
Gaza continues, the IDF will "use this card," i.e. resume
targetted assassinations, in order to "change the paradigm."
End Summary.
¶2. (S) Representative Robert Wexler, accompanied by staffer

Jonathan Katz, control officer and PolCouns called on Israel
Defense Intelligence (IDI) Director Major General Amos Yadlin
in the Kirya December 3. Noting that he had just come from a
meeting with Likud Party leader Bibi Netanyahu, Congressman
Wexler noted the Netanyahu is talking about an economic plan
for developing the West Bank, while Prime Minister Fayyad
says the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is not economic in
nature. Proceeding from the assumption that Netanyahu is
likely to form the next Israeli government, Wexler asked
whether Yadlin thought it would be possible to marry
Netanyahu's economic plan with Fayyad's pragmatic approach of
getting "deliverables" and reducing the IDF's role.
¶3. (S) Yadlin replied that the Palestinians are only

Israel's number four threat in the IDI's assessment,
following Iran, Syria, and Hizballah. Although the
Palestinians are not the IDI's top concern, Yadlin said he
would answer the question by noting that it will take time to
marry Netanyahu's approach to Fayyad's. If the parties
attempt to move straight to resolving the conflict, the
attempt will collapse and result in violence as in the start
of the Second Intifada after the 2000 Camp David summit. The
key question is how can the Palestinian Authority control
terrorism. Yadlin said the USSC General Dayton is doing "a
very good job" of training the PA Security Forces, but Yadlin
quoted Dayton as saying that the PASF will need three to five
years to build its counter-terrorist capabilities, including
a functioning justice system.
¶4. (S) Yadlin said the IDF is out of the Jenin area unless
it receives reports of a "ticking bomb." The PA, however, is
ignoring Gaza and Fayyad insists on paying salaries in Gaza,
which helps Hamas. Yadlin said this is a "big mistake."
Yadlin noted that the Palestinians have created two entities.
33
President Abbas and Fayyad condemn terrorism and stress that
Palestinian national goals can be achieved through
negotiations. They rule in the West Bank with Israel's
assistance. In Gaza, a terrorist organization is in power
and Hamas preaches that Palestinian aspirations can be
achieved through terrorism. This division provides Israel
with a "historic opportunity" to prove that Hamas' approach
will fail.
¶5. (S) Yadlin insisted that Israel must not withdraw from
the West Bank too soon or it would pave the way for a new
wave of suicide bombings inside Israel. Israel's good
security situation is a direct result of the IDF and Shin
Bet's sustained effort to destroy terrorism in the West Bank.
This efforts continues every night of the year. It will
take time to build trust between the next Israeli prime
minister and perhaps the next PA president as well. Yadlin
said he is satisfied that Israel is now on the right track in
the West Bank. The IDF has figured out how to remove
obstacles that affect the Palestinian economy while leaving
in place the means to ensure Israel's security. In Gaza,
however, Israel needs to be "much tougher."
¶6. (S) Congressman Wexler asked why Fayyad wants to send

money to Gaza. Yadlin said Fayyad fears that if he does not,
Hamas will bring in money from Iran, but Yadlin added that
this concern was misplaced. Hamas' control of Gaza provides
an opportunity. Since the terrorists are now the government,
Israel knows which terrorist is sitting in what office and
where their homes are. They have come out of hiding and into
TEL AVIV 00002745 002 OF 002
the open, so the IDF can identify and find them. Yadlin
warned that if the shelling of Israeli communities from Gaza
continues, Israel can "use this card" against Hamas. It will
"change the paradigm," he concluded.
¶7. (S) Comment. While Yadlin did not use the phrase
"targeted assassinations," it was clear from the context that
he is advocating this approach to countering the threat from
Hamas. It was also clear that he strongly opposes those in
34
the GOI who advocate maintaining a base of currency flow into
Gaza. End comment.
¶8. (U) CODEL Wexler did not have the opportunity to clear
this cable.
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TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV KNNP KWBG IR IS
SUBJECT: CODEL KYL'S MEETING WITH PRIME MINISTER
NETANYAHU:
WHAT WILL THE U.S. DO ABOUT IRAN?
Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)
¶1. (S) Summary. CODEL Kyl, accompanied by the Ambassador,

called on Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu April 6 in the
first official U.S. meeting with Netanyahu since he formed a
government. The main topics of discussion were stopping
Iran's nuclear program and Netanyahu's approach to
peace-making with the Palestinians. On Iran, Senator Kyl
raised ways to increase the effect of sanctions, including
possible legislation targeting Iranian imports of refined
petroleum. Adopting a forceful stance, Netanyahu asked
repeatedly what the U.S. plans to do if sanctions and
engagement fail to stop Iran's program. Calling Iran's
development of a nuclear bomb a world-changing event,
Netanyahu said all other issues become insignificant by
36
comparison. On the Palestinians, Netanyahu reviewed his
intent to pursue a three-track approach with political,
economic, and security aspects. While noting that his
government is conducting a review of Israeli policy toward
the Palestinians, Netanyahu asserted that there is agreement
within the government and among 80% of Israelis that the
Palestinians should be able to rule themselves, but with
limits imposed by Israel's security requirements. Netanyahu
said the only difference between his position and that of
opposition leader Tzipi Livni is over the name of the goal,
i.e. the two-state solution. In response to comments by
Senator Sessions that the Palestinian Authority needs
functioning courts and jails as well as police, Netanyahu
agreed but said he had not yet focused much on Palestinian
governance issues. Netanyahu said he wants to show the
Palestinians the benefits of peace, but with the proviso that
if Iran goes nuclear, peace will fail. Predicting that his
government would pleasantly surprise many critics, Netanyahu
concluded that he hopes to come up with a common approach
with President Obama. End Summary.
¶2. (U) CODEL Kyl, consisting of Senator Jon Kyl (R, AZ);
Senator Jeff Sessions (R, AL); Representative Jane Harman (D,
CA); Representative John Kline (R, MN); and Representative
Chris Carney (D, PA), called on Prime Minister Benyamin
Netanyahu April 6. The Ambassador, Congressional staff, and
Pol Couns (notetaker) participated in the meeting. Netanyahu
was joined by National Security Adviser Uzi Arad, Spokesman
Mark Regev, Policy Adviser Ron Dermer, former chairman of the
Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Kadima MK
Tzachi Hanegbi (Senator's Kyl's counterpart in the
U.S.-Israel Joint Parliamentary Committee on National
Security), and the Israeli Embassy in Washington's
Congressional liaison officer. The meeting was the first
official U.S. face to face contact with Netanyahu since he
formed his government.
What Will the U.S. Do About Iran?

---------------------------------
¶3. (S) After a brief discussion of the world economic crisis,

Senator Kyl raised Iran, noting the "sobering" briefings the
CODEL had received from senior Israeli defense and
37
intelligence officials the previous day. Kyl said the
Congress is looking at legislation that would target Iran's
imports of refined petroleum products, adding that there are
only four or five companies that supply refined petroleum to
Iran and the U.S. has considerable leverage over most of
them. Kyl added that Israeli experts had told the CODEL that
they thought such legislation would be helpful. Netanyahu
said nothing is slowing the progress of Iran's nuclear
program. The Prime Minister asked what will happen to the
Middle East if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon? If such a
prospect is unacceptable, what will the U.S. do as Iran
reaches the nuclear threshold? What will the U.S. do if
Pakistan is taken over by Islamic radicals?
¶4. (S) Representative Harman told Netanyahu that no one in

the CODEL disagreed with his analysis, but the U.S. should
give engagement an opportunity to see if it works. If it
does not, at least it would show the world that the U.S. had
tried. She added that Congress supports engagement on a
bipartisan basis. Senator Kyl added that the Europeans tried
to engage Iran for five years but it did not work. President
Obama will pursue engagement, but Kyl said he doubted it
would be successful. We should consider what to do in the
mean time. Netanyahu responded that the U.S. should move
quickly. Engagement should have a short time limit and a
specific goal, for example talk to the Iranians for four to
twelve weeks and make clear that the U.S. goal is an end to
their nuclear program. Leaning forward, Netanyahu repeated
his earlier question: "What will you do if it does not work?"
TEL AVIV 00000936 002 OF 003
¶5. (S) Netanyahu said that learning to live with a nuclear

Iran would be a big mistake which would lead to a different,
more dangerous world. While he noted that he could not say
for certain that Iran would use a nuclear weapon against
Israel, if Iran had a bomb Israelis would have to ask that
question every day. This is a historic moment, and leaders
have a responsibility to make decisions. All other issues
are insignificant by comparison. For a third time, Netanyahu
asked, "What are you going to do?"
38
Netanyahu's Approach to the Palestinians
----------------------------------------
¶6. (C) Senator Kyl asked the Prime Minister about his view of
the two-state solution. Netanyahu said he plans to engage
the Palestinian Authority quickly and will not tie political
talks with the Palestinians to developments with Iran.
Reviewing a now familiar formula, Netanyahu said he will
approach the Palestinians on parallel political, economic and
security tracks. Political talks would aim at achieving an
agreement within certain limits, the economic approach would
promote foreign and Arab investment and joint projects with
Israeli partners, while the security track would continue to
build up the PA's security forces. In order to do any of
this, Netanyahu noted, he will need a Palestinian partner.
¶7. (C) Representative Harman observed that the CODEL had

visited units of the PA's National Security Forces and the
Presidential Guard. PA Prime Minister Fayyad said he was
happy with the PA's security forces, and they want to take on
increased responsibility for security in Jericho and Jenin.
Netanyahu replied that Israel would be happy to let them do
more, but it is not clear what Hamas will do next. If Hamas
forces a confrontation, Israel will have to initiate further
military action in Gaza. Israel did not want to go back into
Gaza, but it will do what is necessary to protect its people.
¶8. (C) Netanyahu said his government is reviewing Israel's

policy toward the Palestinians. There is a consensus in the
government and among 80% of the Israeli public that the
Palestinians should be able to govern themselves. The only
limits on Palestinian sovereignty would be elements that
affect Israel's security. A Palestinian state must be
demilitarized, without control over its air space and
electro-magnetic field, and without the power to enter into
treaties or control its borders. Netanyahu concluded that he
and opposition leader Tzipi Livni "only disagree about the
name," i.e. the two-state solution.
¶9. (C) Senator Sessions noted that people everywhere want law
and order. Palestinians not only need to deal with
39
terrorism, they also need a functioning legal system. Moving
from a lawless system, the Palestinian Authority is showing
some pride, but police are not enough, they need courts and
jails that work. Economic development is impossible in a
lawless society. Netanyahu agreed this was a valid point and
uncharacteristically admitted that he had not focused much on
Palestinian governance. He added that international
assistance should provide funding for jails and courts. It
is possible to create crime-free zones and begin economic
development "in bubbles" which would then be expanded.
Senator Sessions noted that Lt. General Dayton is focused on
this issue. Representative Harman commented that "bubbles"
in the West Bank would not be enough, Palestinians need law
and order everywhere.
¶10. (C) Netanyahu said the "classic rhetoric" of the peace

process has been that if Israel withdraws, all will be well.
Now, however, if Israel withdrew from the West Bank, Hamas
would take over. Economic development would not be a
substitute for a political settlement, but it would change
the environment and show Palestinians the benefits of peace.
Israel has been trying to "build a roof without a foundation"
and it has not worked. Netanyahu said there was one proviso:
If Iran gets a nuke, peace efforts will fail.
¶11. (C) Netanyahu pointed to the example of Jordanian King

Hussein, whom he termed Israel's best Arab ally and a man
deeply committed to peace. Yet when Saddam Hussein took
Kuwait, King Hussein got on board with the Iraqis. In the
event of a nuclear Iran, "all the Arabs will become Qatar."
We should therefore move in parallel to work for peace with
the Palestinians while acting to stop Iran. Netanyahu said
he thought his government would pleasantly surprise many of
its critics. He concluded the meeting by saying that he
wants to coordinate Israel's positions with the U.S. and
hopes to come to a common position with President Obama.
TEL AVIV 00000936 003 OF 003
¶12. (U) CODEL Kyl has cleared this cable.
40
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TAGS: PREL PGOV KNNP IR KWBG EG IS
SUBJECT: CODELS ACKERMAN AND CASEY MEETINGS
WITH PRIME
MINISTER NETANYAHU
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4

(b),(
d)
¶1. (S) Summary. CODEL Ackerman and Casey met separately

May
26 and 27 with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. The Prime
Minister discussed his visit to Washington, focusing on his
discussions of Iran, a regional approach in support of
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, and his approach to the
Palestinians and settlements, including his opposition to a
complete freeze on settlement construction. Netanyahu said
he was pleased with President Obama's approach to engagement
with Iran and on a regional component to peacemaking. On the
Palestinians, he reiterated his view that the Palestinian
Authority (PA) must declare its recognition of Israel as a
Jewish state, and also reviewed his thinking on the
importance of security for Israelis and his support for
42
increased Arab private investment in the West Bank. On
settlements, Netanyahu said he would take action against
illegal outposts and would not build new settlements or
confiscate more Palestinian land, but he insisted that he
would not support a complete freeze on construction, and
noted that his advisers would try to close the gap with the
U.S. on this issue. Members of the CODELs pressed Netanyahu
on the importance of finding ways to strengthen PA President
Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyad, as well as to address
humanitarian and reconstruction needs in Gaza. End summary.
Washington Visit
----------------
¶2. (S) Prime Minister Netanyahu told CODEL Ackerman that he

did not feel boxed in politically and that his coalition in
fact reflects the demands of the Israeli public to address
their concern about security. While some argue that
agreements bring security, Netanyahu said Israel's experience
of the past fifteen years proved that neither agreements nor
unilateral withdrawals brought security. Netanyahu said he
had told President Obama that while he would not condition
negotiations with the Palestinians on halting Iran's progress
toward a nuclear weapon, if Iran obtained such a weapon it
would destroy any progress made toward peace. He added that
Egyptian President Mubarak and Jordanian King Abdullah were
in complete agreement with him on that point.
¶3. (S) For the sake of both security and peace, the first
task is to stop Iran's nuclear program. Netanyahu noted that
the President had assured him that by the end of the year,
the U.S. will decide whether engagement is working and that
the goal is to stop Iran's program. The President told him
that all options remain on the table, a point confirmed by
Secretaries Clinton and Gates. Netanyahu said he and Mubarak
agreed that a nuclear Iran would lead others in the region to
develop nuclear weapons, resulting in the biggest threat to
non-proliferation efforts since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
This "nightmare scenario" is well understood in Washington,
he said.
¶4. (C) Turning to peace efforts, Netanyahu said the

President is bringing a fresh approach to regional peace
43
whereby the Arabs would enhance the Israeli-Palestinian
track. It will be especially important to get the Saudis on
board, he added. On the two-state solution, Netanyahu noted
that the President had stressed his support for two states.
He had told the President that Israelis did not want to rule
Palestinians. Netanyahu said he was prepared for
"arrangements" with the Palestinians that would entail some
limits on their sovereignty such as no Palestinian army, and
Israeli control over borders, airspace, and the
electromagnetic spectrum. Netanyahu asserted that seventy to
eighty percent of Israelis are ready to make concessions for
peace but they do not believe they have a Palestinian partner
since Hamas is in control of Gaza and Iran has a base on
Israel's border. How can there be peace without a new
situation in Gaza, he asked.
¶5. (C) Turning to settlements, Netanyahu noted that he had

told the President that both Israel and the Palestinians had
unfulfilled Roadmap commitments. Without elaborating, he
noted that there were written and oral understandings between
President Bush and Prime Ministers Sharon and Olmert on the
Roadmap. In Gaza, Israel dismantled twenty-seven settlements
but got six thousand rockets from Hamas in return.
Support the PA
--------------
¶6. (C) Chairman Ackerman commented that President Abbas and

Prime Minister Fayyad are necessary for progress, and noted
that both Israel and the U.S. will be in trouble if they are
replaced. Something needs to be done to help them stay in
power. They need material support but also the promise of
TEL AVIV 00001184 002 OF 003
statehood. Foreign investment in the West Bank would give a

real horizon as well. Netanyahu agreed, saying Gulf Arab
investors had been successful in transforming their own
societies and could make a great contribution to the
Palestinians. He added that he wanted to bring Gulf
investors into the West Bank since they would change reality
for the Palestinians but also give Israelis confidence.
44
Ackerman responded that this was a great idea, but it should
come from Abbas, not Israel. The more credit Abbas can take
for steps forward, the better.
¶7. (C) In response to a question about the PA security

forces' capabilities, Netanyahu commented that he supports
the PA's desire to keep Hamas at a distance. A national
unity government without Hamas' acceptance of the Quartet
conditions would serve Hamas' interests, adding that Israel
has a common interest with the PA to prevent a Hamas takeover
of the West Bank. Netanyahu said there is a steady flow of
Iranian weapons to Gaza through Sudan or Syria and then by
sea, but he said Egypt's performance in stopping the tunnels
has improved now that Cairo understands that the Iranian arms
pipeline is a direct threat to Egypt as well.
¶8. (C) On the economic side, Netanyahu said he wants to

establish a joint plan with the PA to improve conditions in
the West Bank. He cited Cyprus as an example of economic
prosperity leading to reduced political tensions. Sen.
Lautenberg pushed Netanyahu to &put Israel,s best face
forward8 in the West Bank, and to work with the PA on water
issues, conservation and health, where Israel could
contribute a great deal and there are many opportunities to
build cooperation that would benefit people. Netanyahu
responded that his ministerial committee on improving the
lives of Palestinians in the West Bank met earlier in the day
and that he is committed to overcoming the turf wars and
excessive caution that have undercut development efforts in
the West Bank in the past. He said the GOI is looking at
creative ideas, such as how to facilitate tourism to Jericho,
advance projects in water and agriculture, in addition to
promoting business (note: he estimated that there are 100
projects Israel is examining in the West Bank). &It is
beyond belief8 what can be done in the West Bank, he said,
but he hoped the PA would engage with Israel on these
efforts. Netanyahu added that the fact that there had not
been any large anti-Israel demonstrations in the West Bank
during Operation Cast Lead meant that Palestinians in the
West Bank want a better life, not confrontation with Israel.
¶9. (C) Representative Ellison, noting that he is the first

Muslim to be elected to Congress, said he visited Gaza in
45
February and met with NGO representatives who could deliver
assistance without the credit going to Hamas. He urged
Netanyahu to consider opening the Gaza crossings, adding that
Gazans he had met told him they want peace and would like to
get their jobs back in Israel. Netanyahu responded that he
is looking at ways to balance Israeli security with enabling
Gazans to have a normal life. The flow of money and weapons
to Hamas remains a problem since Hamas is extending the range
and payload of the rockets it possesses. In response to
Representative Ellison's comment that Israel should allow
USAID to return to Gaza, Netanyahu said he thought that it
might be a good thing to have USAID operate in Gaza.
Settlements and Outposts

------------------------
¶10. (C) Netanyahu said that illegal outposts were a legal

question and his government would enforce the law. The
outposts should be removed through dialogue with the GOI if
possible, but it should be done in any case. Regarding
settlements, Netanyahu said he wants to work with the U.S. on
the basis of the understandings reached with the Bush
Administration, i.e. that Israel will not build new
settlements or seize more land, but if families grow, they
will still have the right to build within existing settlement
boundaries. Now Israel is hearing that the U.S. wants no
construction at all. Israelis consider this position to be
unfair, he said. The question is whether the U.S. is seeking
a geographic or a demographic restriction on settlements.
¶11. (C) Netanyahu commented that Israel needs a common

understanding with the U.S. The U.S. position should be
"reasonable," since opposition to a total freeze cuts across
political parties in Israel. This is more of an issue with
the U.S. than with the Palestinians, Netanyahu asserted,
arguing that the PA will go along if there is an
understanding between Israel and the U.S. He noted that
Israeli officials were meeting with U.S. officials on this
issue, adding that there could be an understanding if the
U.S. wants one. Netanyahu commented that he understood there
should be no land seizures, but he could not tell settlers
TEL AVIV 00001184 003 OF 003
46
not to have children. In response to a question about GOI
incentives to settlers, Netanyahu's adviser Ron Dermer said
the Olmert government had already removed them. Netanyahu
said this was an issue that Israel could discuss further with
the U.S.
Iranian Threat
--------------
¶12. (S) Chairman Ackerman said that in his meetings with

Arab leaders, he found them all concerned about Iran. They
said it would helpful to resolve the Palestinian issue, but
Israel-Palestine is not the main threat to the region.
Netanyahu, following a similar comment during his meeting
with CODEL Casey, responded that there are no Arab leaders
who would tell the U.S. to wait on Iran until there is a
settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Ackerman also
explained that the U.S. will try engagement in order to
prevent an unwise and premature use of force. We will
tighten sanctions at the same time, for which we need the
support of the international community, Ackerman explained.
Netanyahu noted that Ahmadinejad had said he would not stop
Iran's nuclear program. President Obama had been clear in
his comments to Netanyahu that U.S. engagement would be
results-oriented and not open-ended. If engagement did not
work, the U.S. would gain the moral high ground, which would
help make economic pressure more effective. Ackerman agreed
that more pressure was needed and said we need to figure out
what the Russians and others want. Netanyahu said that in
contrast to North Korea, the Iranian nuclear and missile
programs were direct threats to Israel, Europe and U.S.
interests in the Gulf, and he emphasized that the program was
not defensive in nature. In response to a question from
Representative Jackson-Lee, Netanyahu encouraged quick action
on a bill in the Congress to pressure foreign oil companies
not to sell refined petroleum to Iran. This might not be
enough to stop Iran's program but it would send a strong
signal. Netanyahu also urged that the U.S. demand that Iran
stop all uranium enrichment since enrichment is the main
element of their program. He commented that Iran might try
to use the talks with the U.S. to continue or accelerate
47
their enrichment process. Netanyahu cautioned that he was
skeptical of the idea that the Iranian leadership could
change. They have a dangerous worldview, a violent
theocracy, but it may be possible to move them if they find
the U.S. strong and determined. Iran, he commented, is bent
on becoming a global and not just a regional power.
¶13. (U) CODELS Ackerman and Casey did not have the
opportunity to clear this message.
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RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 6619
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TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PTER EG CH IR SA LE IS
SUBJECT: PM A/S SHAPIRO'S JULY 22-23 VISIT TO ISRAEL
REF: GRUBB-MILLER 07/22/09 E-MAIL
Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
¶1. (S) Summary: Assistant Secretary for Political-Military

Affairs Andrew Shapiro met with a number of GOI officials on
July 22-23 to stress the importance of the U.S.-Israeli
political-military relationship, and to discuss among other
issues Israel's Qualitative Military Edge (QME). GOI
interlocutors continued to press for the opportunity to
review the QME report prior to its submission to Congress,
and presented an official response to a U.S. non-paper on
potential arms transfers to Arab countries. In that respect,
49
the MOD proposed technical discussions in Washington on
August 3 to further discuss GOI concerns over the potential
F-15SA transfer to Saudi Arabia. GOI officials continued to
express reservations regarding U.S. arms transfers to
Lebanon, and requested the opportunity to further discuss
U.S. strategy and intentions with respect to the Lebanese
Armed Forces. GOI interlocutors raised continued concerns
over the Iranian nuclear weapons program, noting that any
policy of engagement be done in conjunction with tougher
sanctions and for a finite period of time before turning to
other "options on the table." Other issues raised by GOI
officials included the Peace Process, Israel's export control
system, and potential Israeli exports to China. Both sides
agreed in principle to the next session of the Joint
Political Military Group (JPMG) in October or early November
in Israel. End summary.
¶2. (SBU) On July 22, A/S Shapiro met with MOD Director
General Pinchas Buchris, MOD Political-Military Director Amos
Gilad, Defense Export Control Directorate Chief Eli Pincu,
and participated in a roundtable discussion led by J5
Strategic Division Chief Brigadier General Yossi Heymann. At
the MFA on July 23, A/S Shapiro met with Director General
Yossi Gal and participated in a roundtable discussion led by
Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs Alon Bar and
Export Control Director Roey Gilad. A/S Shapiro also
participated in a strategic tour of Israel, and visited
Israeli defense company Plasan-Sasa.
U.S.-Israeli Relationship
-------------------------
¶3. (SBU) A/S Shapiro stressed the importance of the

U.S-Israeli political-military relationship, noting the
significance of visiting Israel on his first overseas trip in
his capacity as Assistant Secretary for the
Political-Military Affairs Bureau. GOI interlocutors
appreciated the opportunity to resume dialogue on this
important aspect of the U.S.-Israeli relationship. MOD DG
Buchris noted the two still relatively new administrations in
the United States and Israel, and the importance of limiting
the number of misunderstandings in the future.
50
Qualitative Military Edge
-------------------------
¶4. (S) GOI officials reiterated the importance of maintaining

Israel's Qualitative Military Edge (QME). They said that
Israel understands U.S. policy intentions to arm moderate
Arab states in the region to counter the Iranian threat, and
prefers such sales originate from the United States instead
of other countries like Russia or China. However, Israel
continues to stress the importance of identifying potential
risks that may become future threats or adversaries, and for
this reason maintains several objections as indicated in the
official GOI response to the QME non-paper on potential U.S.
arms sales to the region (ref e-mail to PM/RSAT separately).
¶5. (S) GOI officials also expressed continued interest in

reviewing the QME report prior to its submission to Congress.
A/S Shapiro reiterated that the report was based on an
assessment from the intelligence community, and therefore not
releasable to the GOI. He referenced previous points made to
the Israeli embassy in Washington regarding the report, and
welcomed any comments the GOI might have -- although such
comments should be delivered as soon as possible as the
report is already overdue. Israeli interlocutors appreciated
the classified nature of the report, but also made clear it
was difficult to comment on the report's results without
reviewing its content or intelligence assessment. In that
respect, Buchris and other GOI officials requested that the
QME process be reviewed in light of future QME reports.
¶6. (S) GOI interlocutors attempted to make the argument that

moderate Arab countries could in the future become
adversaries -- and that this should be taken into account in
the QME process. During a roundtable discussion led by the
MFA's Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs Alon Bar,
the MFA's Center for Policy Research gave intelligence briefs
on Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Lebanon to further support the
argument that these countries could become future foes.
Policy Research Center interlocutors reviewed succession
concerns in both Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Bar argued that a
perceived closure in the capability gap between Israel and
Arab states, coupled with a nuclear-armed Iran, could compel
moderate Arab states to reassess the notion that Israel was a
51
fixture in the region.
¶7. (S) Typically frank, MOD Political-Military Chief Amos

Gilad was not certain how much longer Egyptian President
Mubarak would live, and questioned whether his son Gamal was
ready to assume command. Gilad said the Egyptian military
led by Defense Minister Tantawi continues to train and
exercise as if "Israel was its only enemy." He added that
there were disturbing signs on the Egyptian streets, as women
are dressed more conservatively, and that peace with Israel
"is too thin, too superficial." On Saudi Arabia, Gilad said
that King Abdullah does not hate Israel, but his chief
priority is the survival of the regime.
¶8. (S) The GOI official response to the arms transfer

non-paper includes several objections, such as the potential
transfer of systems for the F-15SA to Saudi Arabia, including
the Enhanced Paveway II, Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System,
and AESA radar. Buchris said the GOI is ready to establish a
working group to discuss the F-15SA transfer, and proposed an
Israeli technical team accompany BG Heymann to Washington (in
town for a missile defense meeting) on August 3 to discuss
the issue further. Buchris said the sale of the F-15SA was
not the problem, but rather the weapons systems included on
the planes and the location of the planes in Saudi Arabia.
Lebanon
-------
¶9. (S) The GOI remains concerned about U.S. arms transfers to
the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and has requested the
opportunity to discuss further U.S. intentions regarding the
LAF. A/S Shapiro said the results of the Lebanese elections
represented a turning point, and rejection of Hizballah and
its Iranian sponsors. The need to build up Lebanese
institutions, including the army, was now more important than
ever, he argued. A/S Shapiro said the LAF has thus far
demonstrated a solid record of accounting for U.S. systems
transferred to Lebanon.
¶10. (S) Buchris acknowledged that the elections in Lebanon

were positive, but countered that Hizballah's influence
remains strong. He argued that items such as the Cessna
52
Caravan and the Raven unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) lack
sufficient mitigation measures, which creates the potential
for an incident along the Israel-Lebanese border. Amos Gilad
said the GOI does not believe the LAF will attack Israel.
However, given the ties between Hizballah and the LAF, he was
certain the IDF would eventually face the LAF in any conflict
with Hizballah.
¶11. (S) Analysts from the MFA's Center for Policy Research
argued there has been no dramatic change in the political
arena despite the March 14 coalition's significant victory in
the elections. They said the fragile political situation in
Lebanon is currently stable, but Hizballah still possesses an
unofficial veto over policy. Long term prospects will be
tested by the Hariri Tribunal and Hizballah's desire for a
reprisal to the 2008 Mughniyeh assassination. MFA Policy
Research analysts further argued that the LAF faces
tremendous pressure following the recent explosion of a
Hizballah arms cache near the Lebanese-Israeli border. MFA
DG Yossi Gal noted that UNIFIL had been prevented from
investigating the explosion, and raised the recent crossing
by Lebanese citizens into Israeli territory to plant Lebanese
and Hizballah flags. He said French and Italian delegations
had praised the GOI's restraint in these cases.
¶12. (S) A/S Shapiro asked if the election results might be

the result in part of a backlash in the Christian community
against Hizballah; the Policy Research analysts countered
that the results were indicative of several factors,
including the influx of Saudi money and an unstable
opposition camp. They agreed that Hizballah leader Nasrallah
might be a bit chastened following the elections, as
suggested by A/S Shapiro, but that Hizballah continues to try
and undermine the March 14 coalition.
¶13. (S) During the MOD roundtable discussion, BG Heymann also

acknowledged the positive results of the elections. However,
he feared the outcome did not represent the real power of the
Shi'ites in Lebanon. He agreed that moderates and the LAF
must be strengthened, but expressed deep concerns about
ongoing cooperation between Hizballah and the LAF. He also
said that such aid to Lebanon be paired with efforts to halt
smuggling and directly weaken Hizballah.
53
¶14. (S) BG Heymann also cited concerns regarding mitigation
measures for the Caravan and Raven in order to prevent an
"accidental engagement" by the IAF. Overall, he was
skeptical that these systems would benefit the LAF, and said
the GOI would appreciate a more in-depth conversation
regarding U.S. intentions and overarching strategy with
respect to the LAF. Heymann suggested further talks to
coincide with the August 3rd F-15 technical discussion in
Washington; MFA DDG Bar echoed this request. A/S Shapiro
offered to take that back to Washington for review. If it
proved too difficult on short notice to bring together
interagency experts to discuss US intentions with the LAF,
A/S Shapiro suggested it be included in the Joint Political
Military Group talks later in the fall.
Iran
----
¶15. (S) Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons remains the GOI's

primary focus. Buchris stated bluntly that it was not clear
to him where U.S. policy was heading with regard to Iran. In
separate meetings, Buchris and Amos Gilad said that Israel's
preeminent priority is to prevent Iran's nuclear weapons
program, which if realized would cause a nuclear arms race
across the Middle East as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt
pursue similar programs in response. Gilad was skeptical
that engagement would work, noting Iranian desires to

"establish a new empire" and pointing to Iranian support for
Hizballah and "Hamastan." Buchris added that the United
States' desire to engage with Iran should be accompanied by
tough sanctions, and only pursued for a finite period of
time; MFA DG Gal concurred. Alluding to a potential military
strike, Buchris said "all options must remain on the table,"
and acknowledged that part of his job was insuring Israel was
ready to employ such an option, no matter how undesirable it
may be.
¶16. (S) A/S Shapiro made clear that a nuclear armed Iran was
unacceptable to the United States. He referenced Secretary
Clinton's July 15 foreign policy address at the Council on
Foreign Relations, noting the offer of engagement with Iran
54
-- but reinforcing that such an offer is not indefinite. A/S
Shapiro argued that an Iranian rejection of our offer to
engage will only help bolster international support for
increased sanctions. He also pointed to the uncertain
situation following the Iranian elections -- it was unclear
at this point how the regime in Tehran will react to our
offer of engagement. That said, he repeated that the
engagement offer was not unlimited, noting that the United
States will reassess its engagement strategy with Iran later
this fall.
¶17. (S) A/S Shapiro cited a commonality of interests with the

Gulf States, which also view Iran as the preeminent threat --
we should take advantage of this commonality, he said.
During the J5 roundtable discussion, IDF interlocutors
expressed skepticism that proposed military assistance to the
Gulf would help against Iran, as some of the systems slated
for delivery are not designed to counter the threats, nuclear
and asymmetrical, posed by Iran. A/S Shapiro agreed that
assistance to Gulf states should not diminish Israel's QME,
but argued that it sends a signal to those countries (as well
as Iran) that they have strong allies in the West. It also
helps convince these regimes that their best interests lie
with the moderate camp rather than with Iran.
¶18. (S) Buchris said the lack of an appointed U.S. special

envoy focusing on Iran suggested the United States did not
believe Iran was a priority. A/S Shapiro reassured Buchris
that Iran was a top priority as President Obama and Secretary
Clinton are intensely focused on Iran. The fact that Tehran
has not responded to our offer of engagement makes a special
envoy responsible for negotiations not as important, A/S
Shapiro said -- in any case, much of the discussion will be
behind the scenes.
¶19. (S) Buchris referenced a press report from Secretary

Clinton's trip to Jakarta in which she said the United States
would consider providing a defense umbrella for moderate Arab
countries in the Middle East should Iran acquire a nuclear
weapon. Buchris argued that such a statement already
conceded the idea of a nuclear-armed Iran. MFA Deputy
Director General for Strategic Affairs Alon Bar also raised
the Secretary's Jakarta statement; A/S Shapiro stated that
55
the Secretary's comments did not indicate a new policy
approach, but were meant as a deterrent factor toward Iran's
nuclear weapons ambitions -- not as a concession -- and that
journalists covering the trip attempted to make more out of
the statement than was intended.
¶20. (S) Amos Gilad referenced Russia's potential sale of the

S-300 missile system to Iran, noting that Russian
interlocutors initially denied the S-300 contract with Iran,
and then later admitted it had been signed but added that the
system would not be delivered for political reasons.
However, Gilad said the Russians would reassess this
political calculation should the United States continue to
pursue missile defense plans in Poland and the Czech
Republic. He speculated that the Iranians would continue to
put pressure on Russia to sell the system rather than pursue
alternative Chinese systems. He said the Russians appear
committed to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons,
but he personally had doubts about their intelligence
capabilities following their lack of knowledge regarding the
Syrian nuclear project.
Peace Process
-------------
¶21. (S) Buchris acknowledged that the Palestinian Authority

was doing a "good job" in the West Bank, noting respect for
Palestinian Security Forces (PASF) as they take more control
of security -- giving them the chance to succeed was
important, Buchris said. He also commended the work of
United States Security Coordinator Gen. Dayton in training
the PASF. That said, Buchris argued the way ahead would be
difficult, given the divide between Hamas and Fatah.
Reconciliation talks between the two have stalled -- Amos
Gilad said both sides are "more interested in swallowing one
another" than negotiating. Behind the scenes discussions
with Hamas by European countries and even U.S. visitors have
not helped the situation, Buchris said. A/S Shapiro deferred
to Special Envoy Sen. George Mitchell's efforts, but noted
Secretary Clinton's point that a stronger PA will offer an
alternative to Hamas. He also stressed Secretary Clinton's
remarks during her July 15 speech that the United States will
not engage with Hamas unless it has accepted the Quartet
56
principles.
Export Control
--------------
¶22. (C) MOD Defense Export Control Directorate (DECD) Chief

Eli Pincu reviewed the export control system, emphasizing an
improved process, but also acknowledging the potential for
improvement. He gave a brief presentation regarding Israeli
export controls, including enhanced legislation,
cross-ministry coordination, enhanced enforcement, and
increased industry outreach and training. He noted 780
registered exporters in Israel; for 2009, 31,373 marketing
licenses had thus far been issued, with 1,198 denials and 219
returned without action. MFA Export Control Director Roey
Gilad stressed the partnership between the MOD and MFA on
export licenses, and explained the system's dispute
resolution mechanism in the event the MFA and MOD disagree on
a particular case.
¶23. (C) Both Pincu and Roey Gilad noted that the GOI
continues to seek assistance in closing export control
loopholes, including brokering. Pincu noted that brokering
had been included in the Defense Export Control Act, but that
accompanying implementation legislation had not yet entered
in to force. Pincu said the GOI had consulted with Germany,
the United Kingdom, France, and Japan on its brokering laws,
and planned to raise it during the annual defense export
control working group to be held in Washington in October.
Roey Gilad and other DECD officials also hope to travel to
Washington in the near future to further discuss brokering
issues.
China
-----
¶24. (C) MFA Export Control Director Roey Gilad reiterated

that the GOI in no way desires to compromise U.S. national
interests with respect to exports to China. He noted,
however, that the U.S. Department of Commerce created in 2007
a list of exemptions for certain items if sent to validated
end users in China. Gilad questioned whether the same
exemptions might be possible for Israel. As it currently
57
stands, the GOI must pursue any export to China through the
bilateral statement of understanding with the United States.
While the statement calls for expeditious resolution of any
requests to export to China, it often takes up to 80 days to
obtain approval. By that time, Gilad said, China has often
found the item through another supplier. Moreover, the
Israeli export control system requires a 20-working day
turn-around on all export license requests -- which is not
possible, given the length of time required to obtain an
answer from the United States. A/S Shapiro offered to raise
the issue in Washington.
JPMG
----
¶25. (SBU) A/S Shapiro suggested the next session of the Joint
Political Military Group (JPMG) convene shortly after the
Jewish holidays, most likely in October or early November.
GOI officials agreed in principle, and will look at the
calendar and propose dates.
¶26. (U) A/S Shapiro has cleared this cable.
*********************************************
********************
*********************************************
********************
CUNNINGHAM
58
2009-11-12 2010-12-19 Embassy
15:03 21:09 Tel Aviv
VZCZCXRO6141
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #2473/01 3161551
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 121551Z NOV 09
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY STEINBERG
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019

TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MOPS KWBG IS IR
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF DEPUTY
SECRETARY
JAMES STEINBERG
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4

(b) (
d)
¶1. (S) Summary. Israel is deceptively calm and prosperous.

The security situation inside Israel is the best since the
outbreak of the Second Intifada, the economy has weathered
the storms of the international economic crisis, and
Netanyahu's governing coalition is stable, for the time being
at least. Yet outside the storm is gathering and Israelis of
many different political outlooks agree on the need to seize
the initiative, even while they disagree about what exactly
should be done. Israelis see Iran as the primary regional
threat, both due to its nuclear program and its projection of
power directly into Gaza and southern Lebanon. The Israeli
navy's seizure of a ship loaded with a huge shipment of
59
Iranian arms November 3 has provided tangible proof of
Iran's involvement in arming Hamas and Hizballah. Syrian
intentions are also a source of concern, as Israeli analysts
see Asad moving closer to Iran and Hizballah even as Syria
improves its relations with the West. The sharp decline in
Israel's long-
standing strategic relationship with Turkey is adding a new
element of instability into the picture. Prime Minister
Erdogan's rhetorical support for Ahmedinejad and his
dismissal of the threat posed by Iran's nuclear program is
feeding the sense here of impending crisis, although the
robust U.S.-Israeli security relationship is profoundly
reassuring to Israeli security officials and the general
public alike. Finally, the failure to re-launch
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and the political crisis in
the Palestinian Authority is deeply disturbing to Israelis
who still believe in a two-state solution. Even GOI skeptics
are worried that the lack of a political dialogue and talk of
a collapse of the PA are undermining the bottom-up approach
they advocate as the alternative to a final-status agreement.
Netanyahu insists that he is ready to start negotiations
immediately without preconditions, but he will not negotiate
on the basis of former PM Olmert's offer of a year ago. The
opposition Kadima Party's number two, former IDF Chief of
Staff and former Minister of Defense Shaul Mofaz, has
generated considerable attention with a new peace plan that
is based on offering the Palestinians a state with temporary
borders in the next year or two, to be followed by intensive
final status negotiations. Few here believe the Palestinians
will accept this idea, but it may serve to push Netanyahu
toward offering a peace initiative of his own. End Summary.
Calm Before the Storm?

----------------------
¶2. (S) Israel in the fall of 2009 is deceptively calm on the

surface. Israelis are enjoying the best security situation
since the outbreak of the Second Intifada, the result of
Israeli intelligence successes in destroying the suicide
bombing network in the West Bank as well as good security
cooperation with the Palestinian Authority's security forces.
The Israeli economy has successfully weathered the world
economic crisis, with only a slight uptick in unemployment
60
and no major impact on the financial system. PM Netanyahu's
center-right coalition is stable, and faces no significant
challenge from the opposition Kadima Party. Netanyahu
personally enjoys approval ratings over sixty percent, and
appears to have benefited politically from the media
obsession with reports of frictions with the U.S.
Administration. Netanyahu so far has managed the more right
wing elements of Likud and other rightist elements in the
coalition, although tensions with the far right are likely to
reemerge over peace process issues, including a temporary
settlement freeze or a decision to make good on Barak's
pledges to evacuate illegal outposts. There are signs of a
growing split within the Labor Party, and Foreign Minister
Lieberman continues to face the strong possibility of several
criminal indictments for money laundering and obstruction of
justice, but none of this threatens the stability of the
coalition, at least not yet. The latest polls indicate that
Likud would gain three seats if elections were held now.
And Looming Threats

-------------------
¶3. (S) Despite this good news for the government, Israelis
are even more anxious than normal these days. Sixty-one
years after the establishment of the State of Israel,
Israelis sense a growing tide in the world challenging not
just the occupation of territory seized in 1967, but even
against the existence of the Jewish state within any borders.
The GOI's alarm and outrage over the Goldstone Report was
based on their view that the report represented an attempt to
deny Israel the right to react military to terrorist threats.
TEL AVIV 00002473 002 OF 004
Security is indeed good and Israel's borders are generally

the quietest they have been in years, but it is common
knowledge that Hamas in Gaza and Hizballah in Lebanon both
now possess rockets capable of hitting the greater Tel Aviv
area, Israel's main population and economic center. When
discussing Iran's nuclear program, sophisticated Israeli
interlocutors note that the issue is not just whether a
nuclear-armed Iran would launch nuclear-tipped missiles at
61
Israel - although that possibility cannot be dismissed - but
rather the regional nuclear arms race that would ensue and
the impact of the resulting uncertainty on Israeli elites and
foreign investors alike. Israel's remarkable high-tech
economy is a great achievement, but it also makes Israel
exceptionally vulnerable to a host of private decisions to
live and invest elsewhere. Growing alienation among Israel's
twenty-percent Arab minority and the increasing domination of
Israeli Arab politics by an elite that identifies with
Palestinian nationalism further complicates Israel's internal
scene.
¶4. (S) Painstakingly constructed relations with Israel's

neighbors are also fraying. Even optimists about relations
with Egypt and Jordan admit that Israel enjoys peace with
both regimes, but not with their people. The transformation
of Michel Aoun into Hizballah's primary Lebanese ally may be
the final nail in the coffin of Israel's decades-old
relations with Lebanon's Maronite Christians. Finally,
Israelis are deeply alarmed by the direction of Turkish
foreign policy, and see Erdogan and Davutoglu as punishing
Israel for the EU's rejection of Turkey while driving
Israel's erstwhile strategic ally into an alternative
strategic partnership with Syria and Iran.
Gaza Dilemmas
-------------
¶5. (S) Gaza poses its own set of dilemmas. The IDF general
responsible for Gaza and southern Israel, Major General Yoav
Galant, recently commented to us that Israel's political
leadership has not yet made the necessary policy choices
among competing priorities: a short-term priority of wanting
Hamas to be strong enough to enforce the de facto ceasefire
and prevent the firing of rockets and mortars into Israel; a
medium-priority of preventing Hamas from consolidating its
hold on Gaza; and a longer-term priority of avoiding a return
of Israeli control of Gaza and full responsibility for the
well-being of Gaza's civilian population. Israel appears
determined to maintain its current policy of allowing only
humanitarian supplies and limited commercial goods into Gaza,
while sealing the borders into Israel. There are indications
of progress in the indirect negotiations with Hamas over the
62
release of Gilad Shalit in return for the release of hundreds
of Palestinian prisoners, many of them hardened
terrorists,but it is difficult to predict the timing of such
a deal. Shalit's release would likely result in a more
lenient Israeli policy toward the Gaza crossings, but a large
prisoner exchange would be played by Hamas as a major
political achievement and thus further damage the standing of
Abu Mazen among Palestinians.
Security Cooperation with the U.S. Reassuring

---------------------------------------------
¶6. (S) Especially given the sense of growing threats from

all directions, Israelis from the Prime Minister on down to
the average citizen are deeply appreciative of the strong
security and mil-mil cooperation with the U.S. The
U.S.-Israeli security relationship remains strong, as
indicated by the joint U.S.-Israeli missile defense exercise
Juniper Cobra 10 in which over 1,400 American personnel
tested Israel's defense - and U.S. support thereof - against
ballistic missile threats in the region . The United States
remains committed to Israel's Qualitative Military Edge
(QME), and has taken a number of steps to alleviate Israeli
concerns over some potential U.S arms sales to the region,
including the creation of four new QME working groups to
further discuss these arms transfers. These working groups
will soon begin deliberations, focusing on previous arms
transfer agreements, mitigation measures for the planned U.S.
F-15 sale to Saudi Arabia, technical mitigation issues, and
intelligence policy.
¶7. (S) While the United States and Israel may not agree on
some U.S. arms transfers to the region, these QME working
groups will ensure a transparent process so that Israel is
not surprised by any U.S. potential transfer. As it does in
assessing all threats, Israel approaches potential U.S. arms
sales from a "worst case scenario" perspective in which
current moderate Arab nations (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and
TEL AVIV 00002473 003 OF 004
Jordan) in the region could potentially fall victim to regime
63
change and resume hostilities against Israel. It is
primarily for this reason that Israel continues to raise
concerns regarding the F-15 sale to Saudi Arabia, especially
if the aircraft are based at Tabuk airfield near the Israeli
border. We have deflected Israeli requests for additional
information regarding the F-15 sale until we receive an
official Letter of Request (LOR) from Saudi Arabia.
¶8. (S) Finally, an argument can be made that Israel has

continued to raise concerns over the F-15 sale as leverage in
its attempts to modify its purchase of the F-35 Joint Strike
Fighter (JSF). Israel remains highly committed to the JSF as
a successor to its aging F-16 fleet, although budgetary
considerations have raised some doubts how Israel will be
able to afford it. Nevertheless, Israel continues to press
for the inclusion of an Israeli-made electronic warfare (EW)
suite, indigenous maintenance capacity, and a lower cost per
aircraft into its JSF purchase plans, and has repeatedly
raised these issues with SecDef.
Impasse with the Palestinians

-----------------------------
¶9. (C) Polls show that close to seventy percent of Israeli

Jews support a two-state solution, but a similar percentage
do not believe that a final status agreement can be reached
with the Palestinian leadership. Expressed another way,
Israelis of varying political views tell us that after Abu
Mazen spurned Ehud Olmert's peace offer one year ago, it
became clearer than ever that there is too wide a gap between
the maximum offer any Israeli prime minister could make and
the minimum terms any Palestinian leader could accept and
survive. Sixteen years after Oslo and the Declaration of
Principles, there is a widespread conviction here that
neither final status negotiations nor unilateral
disengagements have worked. While some on the left conclude
that the only hope is a U.S.-imposed settlement, a more
widely held narrative holds that the Oslo arrangements
collapsed in the violence of the Second Intifada after Arafat
rejected Barak's offer at Camp David, while Sharon's
unilateral disengagement from Gaza resulted in the Hamas
takeover and a rain of rockets on southern Israel. Netanyahu
effectively captured the public mood with his Bar Ilan
64
University speech last June, in which he expressed support
for a two-state solution, but only if the Plestinian
leadership would accept Israel as the ation-state of the
Jewish people and the Palestiian state would be
demilitarized (and subject toa number of other
security-related restrictions o its sovereignty that he did
not spell out in deail in the speech but which are well
known in Wahington). Palestinian PM Fayyad has recently
temed Netanyahu's goal a "Mickey Mouse state" due to all the
limitations on Palestinian sovereignty that it would appear
to entail.
¶10. (S) Abu Mazen's stated intent not to seek another term is
widely seen here as an effort to put pressure on Washington
to put pressure on Israel to meet Palestinian terms for
starting negotiations. Abu Mazen's statements have likely
reinforced his image among Israelis as a decent man, and
certainly a different breed from Arafat, but a weak and
unreliable leader. Yet even some of the Israeli officials,
including Avigdor Lieberman and Sylvan Shalom, who have been
most skeptical about the prospects for a final status
agreement in the near term, are now expressing concern at the
lack of engagement with the PA and the prospects of the PA
collapsing. Advocates of a bottom-up approach are finally
realizing that without a political process, the security
cooperation and economic development approach will become
unsustainable. Netanyahu has told us that he considers Abu
Mazen to be his negotiating partner, and in his latest public
statements has stressed that he is not interested in
negotiations for their own sake, but rather seeks a
far-reaching agreement with the Palestinians, but it remains
unclear to us how far Netanyahu is prepared to go. Netanyahu
is interested in taking steps to strengthen Abu Mazen, but he
will not agree to the total freeze on Israeli construction in
the West Bank and East Jerusalem that Abu Mazen insists is a
requirement for engaging with Netanyahu.
Israeli Choices
---------------
¶11. (C) Former Defense Minister and former IDF Chief of Staff
Shaul Mofaz generated a lot of media attention this week when
he announced a peace plan that calls for establishing a
65
Palestinian state with temporary borders on sixty percent of
the West Bank, then entering final status negotiations.
TEL AVIV 00002473 004 OF 004
Mofaz' approach is similar to ideas that have been floated

quietly over the past few months by Defense Minister Barak
and President Peres, and Mofaz claims that both Barak and
Peres support his plan. Mofaz' plan is in part an effort to
undermine the political position of his rival for Kadima
party leadership, former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.
Livni, presumably drawing on her experience negotiating with
the Palestinians during the Olmert government, says she
opposes the idea of an interim solution, but instead supports
intensive final status negotiations, perhaps this time with
direct U.S. involvement. Livni and Mofaz both stress that
they are motivated by a sense of urgency and that time is not
on Israel's side.
¶12. (C) Netanyahu still holds the political cards here,

however, and we see no scenarios in which Livni or Mofaz
become prime minister in the near future. As Mofaz told the
Ambassador earlier this week, Netanyahu may wait until the
Palestinian elections, if they are in fact held in January,
but the initiative is in his hands. If the Palestinians
continue to refuse to engage on terms that Netanyahu can
accept, it is possible that Netanyahu could turn his
attention to Syria. Media reports that Netanyahu asked
President Sarkozy to deliver a message to Asad may turn out
to be accurate, but as with the Palestinians, Netanyahu will
not resume talks with Syria where they left off under Olmert,
but will insist on negotiations without preconditions.
CUNNINGHAM
66
Reference IDCreated Released Classification Origin
2009-11- 2010-12- Embassy
09TELAVIV2482 SECRET//NOFORN
16 08:08 19 21:09 Tel Aviv
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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
NOFORN
SIPDIS
NEA FOR A/S FELTMAN; NSC FO DAN SHAPIRO; OSD FOR

USD-P
FLOURNOY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PTER KWBG EG SY IR SA LE TU
IS
SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
VERSHBOW MEETS WITH
SENIOR ISRAELI DEFENSE OFFICIALS
Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
This is a re-transmission of USDAO TEL AVIV 3188.
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On November 1 and 2, Assistant Secretary of

Defense (ASD) for International Security Affairs, Ambassador
Alexander Vershbow, met with a number of senior Israeli
defense officials in Israel including: Ministry of Defense
(MOD) Director General (DG) Pinchas Buchris; Head of MOD
Political Military Bureau Amos Gilad; Assistant Chief of
67
Defense Major General (MG) Benny Gantz; and Head of MOD
Intelligence Analysis Production Brigadier General Yossi
Baidatz. The Israelis expressed positive views on continued
U.S.-Israel cooperation particularly on Israel's Qualitative
Military Edge (QME) and the ongoing Juniper Cobra missile
defense exercise. Israeli officials explained that they were
going through an unprecedented period of calm due to the
deterrent effect of Operation CAST LEAD, but that below the
surface were a number of significant dangers. They continued
to emphasize that Iran represents the greatest strategic
threat to the region, both its nuclear program and its "axis"
with Syria, Hezbollah, and HAMAS. They also expressed
skepticism about Palestinian President Abbas's future, given
his weakened position as a result of his handling of the
Goldstone Report and his inability to get the full settlement
freeze he had pushed for; they questioned his ability to
restart peace negotiations. Israeli officials were concerned
about the deteriorating Turkey-Israel relationship and
discussed threats emanating from both Syria and Lebanon. END
SUMMARY
-------------------
Bilateral Relations
-------------------
¶2. (S) ASD Vershbow's trip to Israel came as a number of

high-level Israeli and American officials were meeting on key
issues. On October 31, Secretary of State Clinton arrived in
Jerusalem for talks on the peace process with Prime Minister
Netanyahu, Defense Minister Barak, and Foreign Minster
Lieberman. In addition, EUCOM Commander Admiral Stavridis
arrived in Israel on November 1 to observe the Juniper
Cobra-10 ballistic missile defense exercise. The ASD's visit
also came in the wake of recent high-level discussions on
Israel's QME in Washington, and the October 21 meeting of the
Joint Politico-Military Group in Tel Aviv.
¶3. (S) On QME, ASD Vershbow asked for Israel's assessment of

recent discussions, and across the board, Israeli officials
expressed gratitude for U.S. efforts on this front and voiced
optimism on the steps moving forward. Amos Gilad
acknowledged the sometimes difficult position the U.S. finds
itself in given its global interests, and conceded that
68
Israel's security focus is so narrow that its QME concerns
often clash with broader American security interests in the
region. Israeli officials acknowledged the impressive nature
of the QME dialogue mechanisms recently established, but
stated that the results of the process are what truly matter.
MG Benny Gantz defined successful QME relations as "the
effective process plus the right mitigations." While not
explicitly saying it, Gantz seemed to acknowledge that Israel
does not expect that all QME decisions will break in its
favor, but that Israel only expects a fair and equitable
process that incorporates "intimate dialogue." DG Buchris
thanked Versbhow for the recent success of the JPMG and said
he looks forward to convening the first meeting of the agreed
upon working groups by the end of November. Vershbow stated
that the technical working group discussions would be
launched soon, and that he was looking forward to future
Israeli participation on this issue.
------------------------
Iran Remains Top of Mind
------------------------
¶4. (S) Israeli officials continue to uniformly emphasize that

Iran's nuclear program and regional hegemonic ambitions are
the greatest strategic threats to Israel. They view Iran as
the center of a radical axis that includes Syria, Hezbollah
and HAMAS.
¶5. (S//NF) Israel continues to offer a worst-case assessment

of the Iranian nuclear program, emphasizing that the window
for stopping the program (by military means if necessary) is
rapidly closing. General Baidatz argued that it would take

Iran one year to obtain a nuclear weapon and two and a half
years to build an arsenal of three weapons. By 2012 Iran
would be able to build one weapon within weeks and an arsenal
within six months. (COMMENT: It is unclear if the Israelis
firmly believe this or are using worst-case estimates to
raise greater urgency from the United States). Amos Gilad
explained his view of the repercussions of an Iranian nuclear
capability stating that it would give Iran a free hand in
supporting "HAMAStan" in Gaza and "Hezbollahstan" in Lebanon.
Gilad also argued that Saudi Arabia would definitely react
69
to a nuclear Iran by obtaining a weapon (with Pakistani
assistance) and Egypt would almost certainly follow. He was
less sure about whether Turkey would respond by pursuing a
nuclear weapon. Regardless, the security situation in the
region surrounding Israel would be dramatically altered
should Iran acquire a nuclear weapons capability.
¶6. (S//NF) ASD Vershbow queried various Israeli officials

about their view of the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR)
proposal and Iran's recent equivocation on the agreement.
Israeli officials uniformly expressed support for the
agreement but made clear that by itself it was not
sufficient. They stated that it was only one stop on the way
to containing the Iranian nuclear program and that it must be
followed by a freeze-for-freeze agreement and eventually the
full suspension of uranium enrichment, as well as the end of
work on the newly disclosed site at Qom. They warned that
the TRR agreement by itself could serve as a major victory
for Iran if it legitimized in the world's eyes Iran's right
to enrich uranium on its own soil. None of the Israeli
officials expressed surprise about Iran's apparent reversal
on the TRR agreement, as they viewed this as typical Iranian
negotiating style and part of an Iranian strategy of delay.
Amos Gilad stated that Iran would never agree to anything
that contradicted its overall strategic goal of achieving a
nuclear weapons capability.
¶7. (S) When queried about how the U.S. views the Iranian
response, ASD Vershbow explained that the United States was
still seeking greater clarity on what was the real Iranian
bottom line. We may need time to ascertain whether Iran's
response was in fact a serious walk-back or whether it would
be willing to abide by the initial TRR agreement that had
been agreed to in principle in Geneva on October 1. However,
he also emphasized that American patience is not unlimited
and that if the TRR agreement did collapse, the U.S. would
likely begin pursuing the pressure track.
¶8. (S//NF) Israel was also highly concerned about Iran's

support for proxies, with General Baidatz emphasizing that
there are multiple bases in Iran where IRGC, Quds Force,
Hezbollah, HAMAS, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives
all train together and share knowledge. MG Gantz also
70
emphasized Iran's role as a weapons supplier to Syria and
that Syria actively facilitated arms transfers to Hezbollah.
He expressed concern about Iranian shipments of weapons via
Sudan to Egypt and into Gaza. On the Russian delay in
delivery of the S-300 (SA-20) to Iran, Gilad voiced
satisfaction with the train of events, acknowledging Prime
Minister Netanyahu's "secret" visit to Moscow and President
Obama's engagement with Medvedev had both played a role.
Gilad was worried about Russian readiness to support tough
sanctions on Iran. ASD Vershbow said the Russians' signals
on sanctions were mixed, but they seemed genuinely concerned
about recent Iranian missile tests and the revelation of the
Qom facility.
-------------------
West Bank and Gaza
-------------------
¶9. (S) Of particular interest throughout the meetings was the

subject of the Palestinian political situation. It was
widely agreed that President Abbas is currently in a weakened
political state, and Israeli officials generally cast a dour
assessment of Abbas's future. In one exchange, Amos Gilad
stated his opinion that Abbas will not survive politically
past the year 2011. Gilad further stated that Abbas is
facing unprecedented criticism within the Palestinian
Authority over his handling of the Goldstone report, and that
this, coupled with a stubborn HAMAS, has weakened Abbas
considerably. The Israelis said the perception in the Arab
world was that the U.S. had encouraged Abbas to take
difficult positions on Goldstone and settlements only to walk

away from him. ASD Vershbow queried Gilad over measures that
could be taken to bolster Abbas. Gilad responded by stating
that Israeli-Palestinian peace discussions need to be resumed
immediately, but without preconditions, and that both parties
need to seek further cooperation on a range of issues --
specifically on the security sector front. Gilad expressed
optimism over the current atmosphere in the West Bank, citing
improvements in the security and economic spheres, and
further stated that the reduced Israeli Defense Force (IDF)
footprint in the West Bank has made conditions ripe for
advancing the relationship. Gilad closed, however, on a
71
sourer note by stating that the Government of Israel has
little faith in the Palestinian negotiating team.
¶10. (S) ASD Vershbow transitioned off the political

discussion to focus on the Palestinian Authority Security
Force (PASF). Specifically, Vershbow highlighted the concern
that Palestinian forces were seen as lacking real authority,
and therefore asked for steps that could be taken to give the
PASF more visible control of security. Israeli officials
responded by citing the decreased number of direct- action
incursions, checkpoints and patrols, and seemingly drew a
correlation between reduced IDF activity and increased PASF
authority (COMMENT: Despite Israeli assurances, U.S. and
Palestinian officials continue to highlight the corrosive
effect of regular Israeli incursions). MG Gantz cited
Palestinian security sector reform as a major accomplishment,
stating that on-the-ground coordination between the PASF and
IDF units has improved dramatically. Despite these positive
developments though, Israeli officials repeatedly underscored
the importance of retaining the right to disrupt terrorist
operations in the West Bank and Gaza. Additionally, they
stated that if Israel allowed a weak and untrained security
force to take over in the West Bank in the short term, the
result will be deterioration of the Israel-Jordan
relationship over the long term. The prospect of poor
Israeli-Jordanian relations, according to Amos Gilad, is
unacceptable, and would result in the loss of "strategic
depth" for Israel.
¶11. (S) ASD Vershbow urged his Israeli counterparts not to

soley focus on the short-term "here and now," but rathr to
envision the possible benefits that a strongand viable West
Bank could have for Israel's secrity situation in the
future. Vershbow used thi point to springboard to the issue
of HAMAS and aza, asking whether success in the West Bank
coud serve as a "magnet" and help solve the Gaza problem.
He asked if Israel had made any headway in tems of an
information operations campaign to better communicate with
the people of Gaza. Israeli officials offered very little in
the way of a communications strategy or long-term vision for
the territories, but reinforced Israel's core belief that
HAMAS has only sinister motives, and that any attempt Fatah
might make to improve its standing in Gaza would only be met
72
with HAMAS opposition. General Baidatz articulated Israel's
concern by highlighting recent intelligence that HAMAS is
trying to acquire from Iran (and potentially test-fired the
previous weekend) the 60 km-range Fajr-5 rocket that could
reach Tel Aviv. These actions, according to Baidatz and
other officials, make any discussion of Palestinian
reconciliation both premature and unrealistic. Ambassador
Vershbow sought further clarification on this point, querying
Israeli officials over the level of public support for HAMAS.
Specifically, the ASD asked if there was any way to
undermine support for HAMAS vis-a-vis the peace process.
Amos Gilad responded simply by saying that one of Israel's
biggest concerns is the atmosphere created by disjointed
peace talks. Specifically, Gilad stated that political
promises of peace, unification, and reconciliation --
concepts that are never realized -- are only resulting in a
climate of uncertainty that is unhealthy. On this matter,
Gilad mentioned that Egypt's role in pushing reconciliation
is not helpful and often counterproductive, but that he
expects Egypt to continue floating the idea at future
junctures.
¶12. (C) In bringing up the Goldstone Report, DG Buchris

emphasized that the Government of Israel took extraordinary
steps to mitigate civilian casualties, despite HAMAS's
deliberate use of civilians as human shields. He stated that
the IDF made over 300,000 phone calls to alert civilians
before bombing legitimate military targets. He also compared
Israeli operations in Gaza to U.S. operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan and stated that Israel would do whatever was

necessary to protect its population. In response, ASD
Vershbow recalled U.S. support for Israel in handling of the
Goldstone report, and offered to share U.S. experience in
investigating incidents in Iraq and Afghanistan as the GOI
considered whether to conduct an additional investigation.
--------------------
Anxiety Over Turkey
--------------------
¶13. (S) Israeli officials also expressed growing anxiety over

the Turkey-Israel relationship after the Turkish cancellation
73
of Israel's participation in the ANATOLIAN EAGLE joint
exercise. They expressed their belief that the strategic
relationship with Turkey is critical, but that PM Erdogan's
views have increasingly penetrated into the military and have
been part of the reason for the deterioration in relations as
Turkey looks East rather than West. Gilad believes this is
understandable as Turkey's EU accession prospects look
increasingly doubtful, and they must balance their relations
with both regions to succeed.
¶14. (S) Baidatz stated that the Turks have an agenda to

contain any Kurdish influence in Iraq and that to achieve it
they need to improve their relations with Iran and Syria. In
his view, the worst possible outcome would be a new
Turkey-Iran-Syria-Iraq axis in the Middle East. Gilad also
noted that Turkey wanted to improve its relationships with
Iran and asserted that it had made some very aggressive plans
recently to support HAMAS. However, he had a less
pessimistic view than Baidatz, stating that Turkey had played
a positive role in Iraq and that generally the Turks' agenda
was for a stable Iraq that would be commercially beneficial
to Turkey. Gilad stated that he was skeptical of any
political rapprochement between Israel and Turkey in the near
term, but that Israel would continue to foster the
military-to-military relationship because of its strategic
importance.
¶15. (C) Gilad also queried ASD Vershbow about what Israel
might do to improve its relationship with Turkey. Vershbow
explained that Turkey wants to be influential in the region
and that if it jeopardizes its relationship with Israel, it
will undermine its status and its leverage as an evenhanded
mediator. He also commented that Erdogan's ideological views
may lead him to focus on Turkey's Islamic neighbors, but he
is also a realist who will not want to jeopardize Turkey's
ties to the U.S. or NATO. The U.S. and Israel should be
patient with Turkey and stay engaged, encouraging the Turks
to play a constructive role in the region. He stated that at
the upcoming bilateral defense talks between the U.S. and
Turkey in December, he and Under Secretary Flournoy would
emphasize the need to improve Israel-Turkey relations.
----------------------------
74
Quiet on the Northern Border
----------------------------
¶16. (S) Israeli officials remain pleased with the "quiet"

nature of its northern border -- something they attribute to
the deterrent effect Israel has built up following OPERATION
CAST LEAD and the 2006 war in Lebano. However, according to
Israeli officials, it i a foregone conclusion that strong
cooperation eists between the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)
and ezbollah. The level of cooperation far exceeds wht
many assume is simply the day-to-day problem of corruption
within the ranks. On the contrary, Israel believes that
LAF/Hezbollah cooperation is a matter of national policy.
Amos Gilad attributed this dynamic to elements of
nationalism, stating that Lebanese government and military
officials choose not to confront Hezbollah out of patriotic
zeal. Moreover, according to Gilad, any information shared
with the United Nations Interim Force-Lebanon (UNIFIL) goes
directly to Hezbollah by way of the LAF.
¶17. (S) Israeli officials have major concerns over

developments within Hezbollah -- specifically, its
relationship with Syria and Iran. General Baidatz spoke of
this relationship and drew attention to the existing supply
of Fateh-110 long-range missile that Iran sent to Syria.
Israeli officials believe these missiles are destined for
Hezbollah. According to Baidatz and others, if the delivery
were to occur, this would significantly alter Israel's
calculus. Under such a scenario, the looming question for

Israeli policymakers then becomes: "to strike or not to
strike."
-----------------
Optimism on Syria
-----------------
¶18. (S) General Baidatz offered an Israeli intelligence

assessment that if Syria were able to achieve peace with
security and obtain greater U.S. involvement, it may pull
away from Iran's orbit. He explained that President Assad
used his "negative assets," namely Hezbollah and HAMAS, to
make himself relevant and that ultimately Assad wants it all:
75
the Golan Heights; peace with Israel; better relations with
the U.S.; a strong relationship with Iran; and a continued
relationship with Hezbollah. Ultimately, Gen Baidatz
asserted that if Assad had to choose one thing, it would
likely be peace with Israel. ASD Vershbow asked if Hezbollah
could be sustained without Syrian support. Baidatz
acknowledged the difficulty in answering this question, but
stated his belief that it would be a gradual process before
Hezbollah could completely wean itself from the Syrian
support apparatus and that, ultimately, both Hezbollah's and
Iran's flexibility would be significantly reduced.
-------------------------------
Mil-to-Mil Relations with Egypt
-------------------------------
¶19. (C) Amos Gilad commented that he would like to see a

complete peace with Egypt, but noted there was very little in
the way of Egyptian-Israeli military relations and that Egypt
continued to train its military for war with Israel. Gilad
stated that Egypt was not likely to attack Israel and did not
represent a short-term threat, but that at the very least it
was necessary to have modest contact between Egyptian and
Israeli officers. He expressed frustration by describing
Egypt and Israel's "frozen peace" and that neither side knows
anything about the other. He noted that the last high-level
military visit for Egypt was in 1991.
¶20. (S//NF) Israeli officials agreed that Egypt's

counter-smuggling efforts have improved, particularly since
Operation CAST LEAD in January. However, they stated that
gaps still exist and that Egypt needs to focus its efforts on
stopping Bedouin smuggling in the Sinai. Gilad said he was
disillusioned with the technical monitoring solution; tunnels
continue and smuggling is increasing even with U.S.
assistance along borders with Egypt.
--------------------------------------------- ---------------
Iron Dome and Juniper Cobra - Strengthening the Relationship
--------------------------------------------- ---------------
¶21. (S) On Iron Dome, DG Buchris (Assisted by retired General

Nagel) briefed ASD Vershbow on the latest developments,
76
stating that Iron Dome is planned to have an initial
operating capability by the spring of 2010, and that
technological advancements have made the system much more
viable defending against short range rocket attacks from Gaza
or Southern Lebanon. Buchris also emphasized the need for
additional USG support to help fund additional production of
Iron Dome to protect the civilian population in both the
North and the South. Buchris also noted progress on the
upper- and medium-tier ballistic missile defense systems
(Arrow-3 and David's Sling, respectively). In an earlier
meeting, MG Gantz quantified the importance of fielding
adequate missile defense systems by citing critical Israeli
infrastructure such as Ben Gurion Airport and the Ashkelon
electricity plant. Suffering the loss or damage of places
such as these, according to Gantz, would be a major blow to
Israel and, therefore, every effort to
stand up a capable missile and rocket defense shield should
be taken.
¶22. (S) After Gantz highlighted three areas of focus for the
IDF (deterring conventional threats, responding nimbly to
asymmetric threats, and developing an integrated missile
defense system), ASD Vershbow asked for Gantz's initial
impression of the Juniper Cobra-10 exercise. Gantz stressed
the importance of this exercise, and stated that so far it
had been a success. ASD Vershbow stated that the timing of
Juniper Cobra was somewhat fortuitous, given the recent
developments with Iran. On the larger issue of missile

defense, ASD Vershbow stressed U.S. efforts to try and
persuade Russia to become more involved in missile defense
cooperation, but stated that Russia's realization that the
new U.S. missile defense approach in Europe is more effective
than the previous one is causing the Russian leadership to
ask many questions about the system.
-------
Summary
-------
¶23. (S) All of ASD Vershbow's interlocutors carried a

consistent message emphasizing that: Iran remains Israel's
greatest threat; recent events have weakened President Abbas;
77
the PASF have performed well in the West Bank; and the
relative calm on all Israel's borders does not obscure the
fact that Israeli intelligence is seeing significant activity
and planning by Iranian surrogates, namely HAMAS and
Hezbollah, with facilitation from Syria. These threats
suggest that Israel must remain vigilant and prepared for the
calm to end one day.
¶24. (U) ASD Vershbow has cleared this message.

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TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PTER EG CH IR RU SA LE TU IS
SUBJECT: 40TH JOINT POLITICAL-MILITARY GROUP:
EXECUTIVE
SESSION (PART 1 OF 4)
Classified By: A/DCM Marc Sievers, reasons 1.4 (b,d)
¶1. (S) Summary: During the Executive Session of the 40th

Joint Political Military Group (JPMG), U.S. and Israeli
counterparts continued discussion on the creation of four new
Qualitative Military Edge (QME) working groups. GOI
interlocutors continued to raise concerns regarding the F-15
sale to Saudi Arabia. Both sides agreed that continued
pressure be applied to Iran, especially following the
disclosure of the nuclear facility in Qom. GOI participants
expressed concern regarding Chinese and Russian cooperation
with respect to enhanced Iranian sanctions. The GOI also
raised dual citizenship concerns with respect to access to
sensitive technology, and noted from its perspective Turkey's
disturbing change of course toward Syria and Iran -- and away
from Israel. This is the first in four cables (septels)
79
reporting on the JPMG. End summary.
¶2. (SBU) Israeli Participants:
-- Brigadier General (res) Pinchas Buchris, MOD Director

General
-- Major General (ret) Amos Gilad, MOD Political-Military
Chief
-- Brigadier General Ronen Dan, acting Israeli Defense
Attache to the United States
-- Gad Dovev, Director, MOD Mission, New York
-- Alon Bar, MFA Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs
-- COL Shimon Arad, IDF J5
-- Rami Yungman, MOD Political-Military Bureau
-- Schmuel Royter, Assistant to the MOD Director General
U.S. Participants:
-- Andrew Shapiro, Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of

Political-Military Affairs
-- Luis Moreno, Deputy Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv
-- Dr. Colin Kahl, International Security Affairs, Deputy
Assistant Secretary of Defense
-- Brigadier General Jefforey Smith, Joint Staff
-- Prem Kumar, Director for Israeli, Palestinian, Egyptian
and Jordanian Affairs, NSC
-- Tom Goldberger, Director for Israel and Palestinian
Affairs, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
-- COL Richard Burgess, Defense Attache, U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv
Qualitative Military Edge

-------------------------
¶3. (S) The Executive Session continued discussion from the

September 30 Qualitative Military Edge (QME) meeting in
Washington. Both sides presented their primary points of
contact for the four newly proposed working groups focusing
on previous agreements, mitigation measures for the F-15 sale
to Saudi Arabia, technical mitigation issues, and
intelligence/policy. Agreement was reached to begin working
on the details of each working group's meeting schedule and
timeline.
80
¶4. (S) The GOI continued to express concern over the F-15
sale to Saudi Arabia. U.S. participants noted that the USG
is unable to provide more detailed information about the sale
until Saudi Arabia officially sends a Letter of Request
(LOR). The GOI expressed additional concerns about
stationing these new aircraft at Tabuk airfield in the
northwest corner of Saudi Arabia -- close to the Israeli
border. U.S. participants stated the USG understanding that
this should not be an issue, as the Saudis are considering
stationing new Typhoon aircraft at Tabuk. The GOI also
raised AMRAAM sales to Jordan; U.S. participants explained
that the new C-7 AMRAAM is an export version with
capabilities similar to the C-5 version -- and therefore
provides little to no increase in capabilities.
Iran, China and Russia

----------------------
¶5. (S) Both sides expressed concern over the recent

revelation regarding Iran's nuclear facility at Qom, and
agreed that increased pressure should be applied directly and
internationally against Iran in order to better determine
Tehran's motives and next steps. Both sides agreed that the
facility at Qom should be inspected immediately. One member
of the Israeli delegation expressed the opinion that some
consideration be given to "shutting Qom operations down
completely" to prevent further progress on obtaining a
nuclear weapon. That said, the GOI argued that the
international community not become bogged down on the Tehran
Research Reactor (TRR) and Qom, thereby diverting focus from
TEL AVIV 00002500 002 OF 002
the bigger issue of Iran's nuclear program.
¶6. (S) Several questions were raised about China's position

on Iran's efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon. Both sides
agreed that continued engagement with China and Russia is
needed -- as well as building a consensus in Europe. The USG
speculated, and the GOI concurred, that China will follow
Moscow's lead. USG participants argued that China would seek
to avoid an international confrontation over Iran. The GOI
81
described 2010 as a critical year -- if the Iranians continue
to protect and harden their nuclear sites, it will be more
difficult to target and damage them. Both sides then
discussed the upcoming delivery of GBU-28 bunker busting
bombs to Israel, noting that the transfer should be handled
quietly to avoid any allegations that the USG is helping
Israel prepare for a strike against Iran.
¶7. (S) The GOI made the case for "crippling sanctions";
cooperation between the United States, Europe, Russia and
China will be necessary in order for these sanctions to be
effective. U.S. participants stressed the USG position that
any discussions with Iran on this subject be finite; the USG
will continue to monitor whether negotiations are making
progress. The GOI stated that it is not convinced the
Iranians will negotiate in good faith unless there are
visible and clear threats. U.S. delegation members described
eight lanes of sanctions, and outlined a plan to "pivot to
apply appropriate pressure" on those points and tracks that
have the most impact. U.S. participants concurred that 2010
is a critical year -- but the continued application of
pressure is vital.
¶8. (S) Regarding Russia, the GOI was not confident that
Moscow will be helpful in any Iranian sanctions effort -- GOI
participants opined that Russia is considered a "mystery"
with respect to their views on Iran. The GOI raised the
Russian S-300 sale to Iran, noting that the transfer is still
pending. GOI participants argued that Moscow seeks a return
to superpower status, but there are contradictory trends
regarding Russia's internal condition.
Dual Citizenship Issues

-----------------------
¶9. (S) The GOI raised the issue of dual citizenship within
the context of access to sensitive technology. U.S.
participants acknowledged Israeli concerns, noting that the
issue is being worked at the highest levels of the USG to
reach consensus on how to proceed. The GOI recommended
obtaining a waiver similar to the relationship from which
Canada or Australia benefit.
82
Turkey
------
¶10. (S) The GOI raised the current direction the Government
of Turkey has taken toward Syria and Iran -- and away from
Israel. Israeli participants argued that Turkey has been
supportive of Hamas in Gaza while pursuing a more "Islamic"
direction with the goal of becoming a regional superpower.
The GOI argued that the Turkish military is losing its
ability to influence government decisions and strategic
direction. After this past year, GOI participants said they
have a "bad feeling" about Turkey. The GOI noted that the
Israel Air Force (IAF) Commander in the past wanted to speak
to the Turkish Air Force Commander, but his Turkish
counterpart declined.
¶11. (U) A/S Shapiro has cleared on this cable.

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TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG IS
SUBJECT: STAFFDEL KUIKEN-CAMMACK'S MEETING WITH
PM ADVISOR
RON DERMER
Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Marc Sievers, reasons

1.4
(b),(d)
¶1. (S) Summary: During a December 14 meeting with Senate

staff members (Michael Kuiken, Senate Armed Services
Committee, and Perry Cammack, Senate Committee on Foreign
Relations), the Prime Minister's Director for Policy Planning
Ron Dermer confirmed a solid U.S.-Israeli relationship that
weathered a "rocky start" following the transition to new
administrations in both countries. He argued that the
international environment has changed in favor of pursuing a
pressure track with Iran; tougher sanctions combined with
continued domestic pressure within Iran might bring about
change in Tehran. He expressed frustration with the peace
process, noting that the GOI has taken steps in the effort to
84
convince Abu Mazen to return to the negotiating table to no
avail. Dermer said PM Netanyahu's patience has "run out,"
and that the GOI will make no more concessions in that regard
-- it is time for Abu Mazen to "be a leader." End summary.
U.S.-Israeli Relations
----------------------
¶2. (S) Dermer described U.S.-Israeli relations as good and

improving, but acknowledged that the relationship between the
new Obama and Netanyahu administrations got off to a "rough,
rocky start." He noted that changes in administrations in
both countries at nearly the same time were "relatively rare"
-- both entered office and started formulating policy based
on electoral mandates representing change from the previous
administrations. Dermer said that the United States and
Israel agree on so many things; when an issue of disagreement
arises, the media tends to disproportionally accentuate the
disagreement -- as was the case earlier in the year on
settlements.
¶3. (S) Since this disagreement, Dermer said relations between

the two administrations have improved daily, and were "only
getting stronger." He noted greater U.S.-Israeli cooperation
and coordination, especially with regard to confronting Iran
and its attempts to acquire nuclear weapons. Dermer said
that President Obama does not get enough credit in Israel for
weighing in helpfully on several issues affecting Israel's
security, such as the Goldstone Report, problems in the
Turkey-Israel relations, and the recent EU Council statement
on East Jerusalem. He also cited the successful Juniper
Cobra joint missile defense exercise hosted by Israel in
November 2009.
Iran
----
¶4. (S) Dermer said there was "great understanding" between

President Obama and PM Netanyahu on Iran during their first
meeting in May 2009. Since then, several events related to
Iran have helped changed the international community's view
on Iran: the Iranian elections and the regime's subsequent
crackdown, the discovery of the Qom enrichment facility, and
85
Iran's refusal of the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) proposal.
Dermer noted that PM Netanyahu has been quite vocal on Iran
over the last 15 years; as the PM's communications advisor,
Dermer said he is often asked why Netanyahu has not spoken
out against Tehran recently. Dermer described the PM's
uncharacteristic public reticence as a strategic decision to
give the United States a chance to succeed and not undermine
the engagement process.
¶5. (S) Dermer suggested that the "stars are aligning" in

favor of putting more pressure on Iran. He described the
upcoming French UNSC presidency as positive, while the GOI
was pleased to see the Swedish EU presidency come to an end.
Dermer said the trick was to convince Tehran that the
continued pursuit of its weapons program would cause the
regime's downfall, and that Russia remains the key on
sanctions.
¶6. (S) Dermer acknowledged disparate voices within the GOI on

strategy regarding Iran, but added that PM Netanyahu favored
tough economic sanctions combined with support for internal
democratic dissent. Dermer compared Iran to the former
Soviet Union, in which experts were shocked by its internal
fragility and subsequent sudden collapse. The assumption is
that Iran is powerful, he said, but internal dissent coupled
with constant external pressure could lead to the fall of the
regime. He noted the importance of finding Iran's "Achilles
heel" to apply pressure on the regime -- perhaps through
Iran's lack of oil refinery infrastructure. Dermer also said
that PM Netanyahu was impressed with the recent efforts by
Senators Brownback and Specter to secure funding to provide
all-source, uncensored internet access to peoples living
TEL AVIV 00002734 002 OF 002
under repressive regimes.
Peace Process
-------------
¶7. (S) Dermer noted that the GOI has taken a number of steps
in the effort to jump-start the peace process with the
86
Palestinians, but to no avail -- as a result, Netanyahu's
patience has "run out," he said. Dermer noted progress on
West Bank checkpoints and outpost evacuations, Netanyahu's
acceptance of the two-state solution during his June 2009 Bar
Ilan speech, allowing "violent" individuals into the West
Bank to attend the Fatah party congress, and the recent
settlement moratorium. He claimed that 70 percent of the
Israeli public opposes the moratorium (note: we think this is
an exaggeration) -- this was a difficult decision for
Netanyahu, but one he decided to make to restart
negotiations.
¶8. (S) Dermer lamented the lack of a partner on the

Palestinian side to pursue negotiations. He pointed to an
interview Abu Mazen gave to The Washington Post's Jackson
Diehl six months ago in which Abu Mazen implied he would "sit
back and wait" for the United States to deliver Israel to the
negotiating table. Dermer accused Abu Mazen of trying to
internationalize the conflict, which he described as a "big
mistake." The GOI understands Abu Mazen's political
constraints and lack of support from Arab regional partners
-- but at the end of the day, Abu Mazen must "be a leader,"
Dermer said.
¶9. (S) Dermer noted that there will come a point readily
apparent to the GOI in which the settlement freeze offers
diminishing returns. He said the steps or "concessions" the
GOI has taken thus far have been devalued because they were
made outside the context of negotiations -- "give us
context," he said. In that regard, Dermer stated
categorically that the GOI will not make any more concessions
to Abu Mazen in order to return to negotiations -- "that is
over." He asked what steps the PA has taken to return to the
negotiating table, and dismissed Palestinian progress in the
security sector as simply efforts to preserve Fatah's power.
¶10. (S) Dermer said that while Netanyahu is ready to engage

at any time, the Israeli public is skeptical regarding the
benefits of returning to negotiations with the Palestinians.
He noted that it would be "extremely difficult" for Netanyahu
to approach the Cabinet at this point regarding negotiations
when all the GOI has received in return for its efforts was a
"slap-down from the international community" following the
87
Goldstone Report.
¶11. (S) Dermer said Netanyahu does not believe Abu Mazen is
as weak as he claims, and that Abu Mazen has the potential to
"rise to the occasion" in negotiating peace. However, he
said Abu Mazen must make some sort of gesture to return to
the table and "prepare his people" for the difficult
decisions necessary for peace. Seemingly simple steps such
as employing new language or condemning violence and
terrorism -- something the GOI believes Abu Mazen has not
done since 2003 -- would be very appreciated, Dermer said.
¶12. (U) The staffdel cleared this cable.

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TAGS PREL, LE, SY, UN, IS
SUBJECT: GOI DISCUSSES LEBANON AND SYRIA WITH HOF
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Luis G. Moreno, reason 1.4

(b) a nd (d)
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On June 10, Fred Hof, Special Advisor for
Regional Affairs in the office of Special Envoy Mitchell, held a series
of meetings with GOI officials from the MFA and MOD to discuss
the situation in Lebanon and Syria and the possibilities for progress
towards opening negotiations with each. The Israeli officials
expressed cautious optimism over the election results in Lebanon, but
did not believe they would lead to major changes in the power
balance in Lebanon, or serious reduction of Hizballah influence.
However, both Amos Gilad, Pol-Mil Director in the MOD and
Nimrod Barkan, Director of the MFA Political Research Division
(INR equivalent), told Hof that the Lebanese election results took
Syria by surprise, and were a blow for Syrian President Asad. The
officials were split over the prospects for Israeli peace with Syria.
Alon Ushpiz, Chief of Staff for the MFA Director General, believes
Syria is only interested in a process that gives it international
legitimacy. However, in a separate meeting, Gilad called Syrian/Iran
89
ties a “marriage of convenience” which could possibly be broken
with a peace agreement with Israel and incentives from the United
States. On Ghajar and Sheba’a, there was consensus within the GOI
that Ghajar can be resolved, but doing so will not have much utility,
while Israeli will only agree to discuss Sheba’a within the context of
Syria. End Summary.
----------------------------
Lebanon Elections Hurt Syria
----------------------------
¶2. (C) The Israeli officials said that it is too soon to tell what the
results of the elections in Lebanon will really mean. Nimrod Barkan
told Hof that he does not see the elections as damaging for Hizballah,
as their popularity among the Shia remained solid. He added that if
Hizballah could maintain its blocking third within the GOL as
established in the Doha Agreement, the Lebanese government would
remain paralyzed. In another meeting, Amos Gilad assessed that the
elections results were largely due to huge amounts of Saudi Arabian
money and the Maronite Patriarch throwing his support to March
14, and not because of a fundamental shift in Lebanese society.
¶3. (C) On the other hand, both Gilad and Barkan agreed that the
elections were a blow to Syria, which was completely caught off-
guard by the results. The Syrian presidential advisors on Lebanon,
they said, are now in trouble. Barkan explained that the Syrians were
so convinced the pro-Syrian March 8 would win the elections that
they thought they could minimize their interference and still win.
They wanted to appease France and the United States, and not
irritate Saudi Arabia, and thought they could do so at no cost. In this
way, Barkan said, French and American actions and rhetoric in
support of March 14 were productive.
--------------------------------------------- -------
Hizballah Still Planning to Avenge Mughniyah’s Death
--------------------------------------------- -------
¶4. (S) Barkan emphasized that Hizballah still plans on avenging the
death of Hizballah operations chief Imad Mughniyah, and that Israel
has already thwarted two terror attacks in third countries. Barkan
said Israel has very sensitive intelligence that Hizballah has
completed operational planning for a third attack outside Israel, but
so far Nasrallah has not decided whether to give the order to carry it
out, despite Iranian pressure to launch the attack. Barkan said he
had personally drafted the MFA’s post-Lebanon election statement,
which included a warning the GOL that Israel will hold them
responsible for any attacks “emanating from Lebanon” and not just
attacks from Lebanon. Gilad also told Hof that Hizballah had shown
90
restraint in the face of Iranian pressure due to the elections,
especially during the Gaza operation. Barkan and Gilad both
emphasized that they did not know if Hizballah’s calculus would
change post-election. Gilad warned Hof that the next round of
fighting with Hizballah would likely involve rockets falling on Tel
Aviv, and if this happens Israel will respond harshly throughout
Lebanon.
------------------------------------
Can Syria Separate Itself from Iran?
------------------------------------
¶5. (C) Hof also held a meeting with senior MFA staff, including
Deputy Director General for Coordination (Director General Chief
of Staff) Alon Ushpiz, Minister Lieberman’s Chief of Staff Naor
Gilon, and Deputy Minister Ayalon’s Chief
TEL AVIV 00001324 002 OF 003
of Staff David Siegel. Ushpiz asked Hof if the United States really
sought peace with Syria in the near term, or if it saw Israeli
engagement with Syria as a way to put pressure on the Palestinian
track, create space in the Arab world, and gain influence with Syria.
Hof replied that all of those goals could be pursued simultaneously,
including peace. During the proximity talks in Turkey conducted
under the Olmert government, Ushpiz said that President Bush gave
PM Olmert the approval to hold talks through Turkey, but said the
United States would not get involved, so Israel went as far as it could.
Israel was also unsure about proceeding because, they said, the GOI
remained skeptical regarding Syria’s intentions to withdraw itself
from its alliance with Iran in exchange for peace.
¶6. (C) Amos Gilad, on the other hand, told Hof that the GOI defense
establishment assesses that Syria may be serious about removing
itself from Iran and withdrawing support for Hizballah in exchange
for reconciliation with the West, especially the U.S., and the return of
the Golan Heights. Gilad asserted that peace with Syria is critical to
achieving Israel-Palestinian peace due to Syria’s ability to support
spoilers. Therefore, he asserted, it was worth it for Israel to make the
attempt. In the talks through Turkish mediation, however, Gilad said
that Israel had been too forthcoming about its security requirements,
and too enthusiastic, and Syria was not ready. He also noted that
Israeli security requirements with Syria had changed radically since
the last talks in 2000, as Israel no longer fears a Syrian surprise
armor attack across the Golan but rather is concerned about Syrian
missile attacks on Israeli cities, so those issues would need to be
renegotiated.
91
¶7. (S) Negotiations with Syria may succeed, Gilad said, because Iran
was a marriage of convenience for Syria. He believes Syria would
much rather be close to their fellow Arabs and the rest of the
international community, if given the chance. Gilad stressed that
both the Iranians and the Arab Sunnis despise the ruling Alawite
minority in Syria - he recalled that Sadat used to call the Alawites
“pagans” - and said the Iranians would like to get rid of the Asad
regime at the appropriate time. Gilad noted that Syria did not inform
Iran of its nuclear reactor, which was built entirely with North
Korean assistance, and did not notify Iran in advance of its proximity
talks with Israel. In addition, he said, the Golan Heights have
remained Israel’s quietest front, evidence that Syria can uphold its
commitments as long its commitments are clear.
¶8. (C) While Syria may want peace, Gilad cautioned that it may be
impossible for Syria to extricate itself from Iran and Hizballah, even
if it tried. Hizballah is now an integral part of Syria’s defense
concept, and is a more effective fighting force than the Syrian army.
But in the end, Gilad stated, Israel only has two choices with Syria:
war or peace.
--------------------------------------------- -----
Hof: Small Steps Needed Towards Talks with Lebanon
--------------------------------------------- -----
¶9. (C) Turning to the prospects for moving toward peace with
Lebanon, Barkan and Gilad separately told Hof that the GOI had
examined the question of renewing the 1949 armistice commission, at
the USG’s suggestion, and there were many questions, including
some basic legal questions posed by MFA lawyers. Hof replied that
much of the armistice agreement is obsolete, but the armistice allows
for mutually agreed modifications, and recognition of its basic
legitimacy among the Lebanese, and the fact that it is mentioned in
the Taif Agreement, could create cover for talks.
¶10. (C) Hof suggested an incremental strategy for Lebanon,
expanding existing, low-level mil-mil trilateral contacts with UNIFIL
gradually until they eventually can encompass some political
progress. Small steps were needed because the Lebanese people’s
attitude toward Israel had hardened over the past 30 years, Hof
explained, and we need to get them back to seeing peace with Israel
as a realistic prospect.
¶11. (C) Gilad, Barkan, and the senior MFA officials separately told
Hof that Israel was ready to move forward with resolving the issue of
the northern end of the village of Ghajar, but doubted that resolving
the issue would lead to real progress and risked boosting Hizballah.
Hof replied that Ghajar can be an important step as long as any
92
Israeli public message is carefully calibrated to emphasize that Israel
is fulfilling its 1701 obligations, and that other parties should do the
same, and not as a benefit to the Lebanese moderates. It is a small
step, Hof said, but the kind of small step needed in this process.
TEL AVIV 00001324 003 OF 003
¶12. (C) On Sheba’a Farms, all the GOI officials separately repeated
the long-standing position that Sheba’a must be resolved in the
context of Syria and not Lebanon. Sheba’a, they said, was simply a
pretext for Hizballah’s claim to represent “resistance to occupation,”
and if it were resolved Hizballah would simply find another pretext.
Hof agreed that it was a pretext, but thought it would be useful to
make Hizballah publicly shift their pretext. Issues like the seven
Lebanese villages in northern Israel, Hof explained, are not taken
seriously in Lebanese society, but the Lebanese claim to Sheba’a
Farms is. Forcing Hizballah to shift its excuse for retaining an armed
force could help expose them to Lebanese society as Iranian
surrogates willing to fight to the last Lebanese.
¶13. (U) Fred Hof has cleared this message.
*********************************************
******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv’s Classified Website:
*********************************************
******************** CUNNINGHAM
93
2009-11-18 2010-12-06 Embassy
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TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PTER KWBG EG IR SA LE IS
SUBJECT: 40TH JPMG: NEA REGIONAL DISCUSSION (PART 3
OF 4)
Classified By: A/DCM Marc Sievers, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
¶1. (S) Summary: As part of the 40th Joint Political Military

Group (JPMG), U.S. and GOI counterparts discussed security
issues in the Near East region. GOI officials expressed
support for the P5 plus 1 engagement process with Iran, but
doubted the process would lead to any change in Iranian
behavior -- Iran will use the engagement process as an
opportunity to continue its pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
Assistant Secretary for Political Military Affairs Andrew
Shapiro stressed that engagement with Tehran was not "open
ended"; the United States is preparing sanctions in the event
engagement does not prove successful. GOI interlocutors
continued to express concerns regarding U.S. support of the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF); U.S. participants reiterated
U.S. support of the LAF as a counterweight to Hizballah. A/S
Shapiro noted NEA, with PM participation and support, plans
to brief the GOI on the U.S. policy regarding Lebanon in the
near future. In a continuation from the JPMG Executive
94
Session, GOI interlocutors made the argument that U.S. arms
transfers in the region could potentially arm future enemies
of Israel. GOI officials expressed frustration over the
Goldstone Report; U.S. officials advocated sharing lessons
learned regarding confronting terrorists in
civilian-populated areas. GOI officials noted improved
counter-smuggling efforts from Egypt regarding arms transfers
to Gaza via the Sinai. However, they argued that Egypt can
and should do more to prevent the flow of arms. U.S.
delegation members also briefed on U.S. policy in Iraq, and
expressed concerns about the current situation in Yemen.
This is the third of four cables (septels) reporting on the
JPMG. End summary.
¶2. (SBU) Main Israeli Participants:
-- Brigadier General (res) Pinchas Buchris, MOD Director

General
-- Major General (ret) Amos Gilad, MOD Political-Military
Chief
-- Brigadier General Ronen Dan, acting Israeli Defense
Attache to the United States
-- Gad Dovev, Director, MOD Mission, New York
-- Alon Bar, MFA Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs
-- COL Shimon Arad, IDF J5
-- Rami Yungman, MOD Political-Military Bureau
-- Schmuel Royter, Assistant to the MOD Director General
Main U.S. Participants:
-- Andrew Shapiro, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of

Political-Military Affairs
-- James Hursch, Director, DTSA
-- Dr. Colin Kahl, International Security Affairs, Deputy
Assistant Secretary of Defense
-- Brigadier General Jefforey Smith, Joint Staff
-- Beth McCormick, Deputy Director, DSCA
-- Prem Kumar, Director for Israeli, Palestinian, Egyptian
and Jordanian Affairs, NSC
-- Tom Goldberger, Director for Israel and Palestinian
Affairs, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
-- COL Richard Burgess, Defense Attache, U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv
-- Robert Maggi, PM Coordinator for Counter Piracy
95
-- Kevin Maloney, Licensing Director, PM/DTCL
Plenary
-------
¶3. (S) MOD Director General Pinchas Buchris began the

plenary, stating this was "perhaps the most important JPMG to
date." He pointed to the threat of a nuclear Iran, and
expressed hope that U.S. leadership will find a way to stop
Iran. Otherwise, a nuclear-armed Iran will "impact the
stability of the world," Buchris said. A/S Shapiro described
this 40th JPMG as a key forum and the primary mechanism in
the political-military dialogue between the United States and
Israel. He said the United States wants to "re-energize" the
JPMG, with the goal to "bring back strategic elements" into
the discussion. A/S Shapiro highlighted the importance of
mutual understanding and transparent dialogue.
Iran
----
¶4. (S) MOD Political-Military Director Amos Gilad presented a

strategic overview. He began with Iran, reciting President
Obama's statement made during a visit to Israel prior to
becoming president that the United States would not tolerate
a nuclear Iran. Gilad said Israel concurs, and described
current dialogue with Iran as the "most sensitive stage" and
Iran's "last chance." He said Iran remains determined to
TEL AVIV 00002502 002 OF 004
reach the "nuclear option," which he described as

"intolerable." He quoted former President and Ahmadinejad
opponent Rafsanjani as saying Iran "only needs one bomb for
Israel," implying that Iran will continue to threaten Israel
regardless of its leadership.
¶5. (S) A/S Shapiro noted that the United States shares
Israel's concerns that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons
program. He said that the United States is beginning with
engagement, but at the same time is preparing tougher
measures should engagement fail. A/S Shapiro stressed that
96
engagement was not "open ended" -- the United States needs to
see concrete steps and tangible results from the P5 1 talks.
He noted concerns over the Qom facility; if Iran does not
respond to engagement, then the United States will move
toward stronger steps such as sanctions. DASD Kahl
reiterated that it is not our intention to allow Iran to "run
out the clock," and noted that engagement also serves to
build international consensus on sanctions. MFA Deputy
Director for Strategic Affairs Alon Bar argued that the
United States must present a clearer message to the Europeans
on what is expected of them regarding sanctions.
¶6. (S) A representative from Mossad said Tehran understands

that by reacting positively to engagement, Iran can continue
to "play for time" and avoid sanctions while pursuing its
strategic objective to obtain a military nuclear capability.
From Mossad's perspective, there is no reason to believe Iran
will do anything but use negotiations to stall for time so
that by 2010-2011, Iran will have the technological
capability to build a nuclear weapon -- essentially reducing
the question of weaponizing to a political decision. Mossad
said Iran's main crisis is in the political sphere -- the
current regime is weaker than prior to the elections, but
does not face significant risk as its security apparatus
remains loyal, while the opposition lacks a charismatic
leader. The goal of the regime, therefore, is to calm down
the domestic political environment -- Khamenei realizes the
frustration demonstrated following the elections has not
disappeared. BG Smith asked if Khamenei's death might change
the political landscape; Mossad noted no information to
suggest a change in Khamenei's health, while those
surrounding him appear more loyal than ever.
¶7. (S) Mossad believes Iran wants to become a regional

hegemon, and is dictating its agenda by using Hamas and
Hizballah as force multipliers. In that respect, Iran is
very creative in finding ways to transfer weapons systems to
its proxies. Mossad said Tehran also understands the effort
to split Syria from Iran's influence, and is working hard to
deepen its relationship with Syria as a result. DASD Kahl
argued that Iran is weaker regionally today than in recent
years. He noted progress in Iraq, the results of the recent
Lebanese elections, and outreach to Syria as signs of a
97
weaker Iran. DASD Kahl also noted increased U.S. credibility
in the Muslim world, while the crackdown following the
Iranian elections exposed the current regime as brutal to the
region and in Europe.
Hizballah/Lebanon/Syria
-----------------------
¶8. (S) Gilad addressed threats posed by "Hizballahstan" and

"Hamastan," noting that Hizballah/Hamas-Syria-Iran
cooperation has strengthened. He noted that rockets from
Lebanon can now cover the entire territory of Israel, while
ballistic missiles -- although not new -- remain Israel's
most serious threat with adversaries having the capability to
target Israeli citizens and major cities. IDF J5 Col Shimon
Arad noted four main trends in Lebanon: 1) internal political
deadlock since the elections; 2) Hizballah's growing military
capabilities; 3) Lebanon as a volatile military arena; and 4)
Lebanon's susceptibility to outside influences, including
Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. He recommended improved
US.-Israel coordination, and called for an exchange of views.
Arad also recommended creating Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)
deconfliction measures, demanding improved LAF performance,
and exerting greater pressure on Syria and smuggling.
Finally, he called for sanctions on the Iranian Republican
Guard Corps (IRGC), trilateral meetings with the Lebanese and
UNIFIL to deter Hizballah, and bolstering UNIFIL by extending
Gen. Graziano's tour for an additional six months.
¶9. (S) A/S Shapiro acknowledged the GOI's desire for

specifics regarding U.S. policy on Lebanon, and hoped to
invite GOI representatives to Washington in the near future
for a full brief led by NEA, with PM participation and
support. He cited the need to provide an alternative to
Hizballah, which explains U.S. goals to strengthen the LAF as
a counterweight. DASD Kahl argued that any LAF cooperation
TEL AVIV 00002502 003 OF 004
with Hizballah is pragmatic given the LAF's current weakness.

He noted that U.S. assistance has been temporarily put on
hold since there is still no Lebanese government. Kahl also
98
argued that prospects for better relations with Damascus
depend on Syrian desires for better relations with the United
States and the return of the Golan Heights. Arad argued that
more must be done to weaken radicals and cease smuggling.
Gilad said the GOI cannot envision a government in Lebanon
without Hizballah, and said the LAF will come to the defense
of Hizballah if attacked by Israel -- thus, a strengthened
LAF hurts Israel.
QME
---
¶10. (S) Turning to U.S. regional arms transfers, Gilad

suggested Qualitative Military Edge (QME) as a "codename" for
potential threats against Israel. Israel currently enjoys
peace with regimes in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the
United Arab Emirates -- but the future is uncertain, and each
of these regimes faces the potential for change, he argued.
U.S. weapons -- "the best in the world" -- level the playing
field by reducing the need for training -- and could
ultimately aid a future enemy of Israel, Gilad said. A/S
Shapiro stressed the importance of transparency -- while
there may be differences between Israel and the United States
in terms of a regional assessment, the key is to ensure that
there are no surprises, he said.
Peace Process
-------------
¶11. (S) Gilad described the Middle East peace process as a

"pillar" of Israeli security. He quoted PM Netanyahu and
President Peres that Israel remains sincerely committed to
peace. Gilad noted however, that the re-launching of
negotiations is complicated by the split in Palestinian
leadership. He said a weak and corrupt PA had lost Gaza
despite Israeli warnings. Gilad said 2010 will prove pivotal
with Palestinian elections looming and Egyptian mediation
efforts to broker reconciliation between Hamas and the PA
having failed. That said, he noted that Israeli-PA security
and economic cooperation in the West Bank continues to
improve as Jenin and Nablus flourish, and described
Palestinian security forces as the "good guys." NEA/IPA
Director Tom Goldberger said Special Envoy Sen. Mitchell
99
continues his mission, and noted that Egyptian reconciliation
efforts were meant to strengthen the PA, not weaken it.
Goldstone Report
----------------
¶12. (S) Gilad addressed Israel's immediate neighbors within

the context of the Goldstone Report. He said Israel has
checked "all the details" of the report, and have concluded
that the report's accusations are "baseless." Buchris said
the report sets a bad precedent for countries trying to
protect its citizens from terrorists; he noted 300,000 phone
calls from the IDF to houses in Gaza ahead of strikes in the
effort to prevent civilian casualties -- "no other country
has taken such steps," Buchris argued. A/S Shapiro
highlighted strong U.S. opposition to the report's referral
to the UN Security Council, noting the report's biased
mandate.
¶13. (S) Gilad said Israel only entered Gaza after Hamas
violated the ceasefire or "tahdiya," which many Israelis felt
was "humiliating" and left Defense Minister Barak open to
criticism. Gilad characterized Operation Cast Lead as a
success that accounted for humanitarian issues; the IDF
showed restraint in the operation because Israel did not want
to re-occupy Gaza. DASD Kahl advocated sharing perspectives
and lessons learned on strategic communication to more
effectively confront terrorists in civilian-populated areas.
NSC Director for Israel and Palestinian Affairs Prem Kumar
noted continued UNSC interest in the Goldstone Report, and
asked Israel to inform the United States on any additional
efforts or investigations the GOI was taking to help deflect
any further damage from the report.
Egypt/Counter-Smuggling
-----------------------
¶14. (S) Gilad said Israel was frustrated by its Arab

neighbors -- including specifically Egypt -- for supporting
the Goldstone Report, which complicates the peace process.
Israel continues to benefit from good security cooperation
with Jordan, he said. Gilad argued that Egypt could stop
smuggling into Gaza "completely," and questioned whether
100
Egypt should be judged by its efforts or results. Gilad
TEL AVIV 00002502 004 OF 004
stressed the latter, and argued Egypt can do more on

counter-smuggling. Finally, he noted Israeli concerns that
Egypt continues to prepare for a potential future military
confrontation with Israel, while no Egyptian military
officers visit Israel.
¶15. (S) A/S Shapiro outlined U.S. military assistance to

strengthen Egyptian border security, counter-terrorism,
peacekeeping and civil defense efforts. He said the United
States is working with Egypt to improve regional security
efforts, such as counter-smuggling. Regarding the Gulf
States and Saudi Arabia, A/S Shapiro stressed efforts to
improve energy security and counter-terrorism, while
bolstering the capabilities of the Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) in the face of the Iranian threat. Finally, he noted
U.S. withdrawal from the Anatolian Eagle exercise following
the Turkish decision to suspend the IDF's participation. A/S
Shapiro said the United States has been delivering the
message that Turkey must improve its relationship with
Israel.
¶16. (S) PM Counter-Piracy Coordinator Maggi briefed on the

counter smuggling technical discussion meeting (septel). He
cited the importance of working with Israel's neighbors --
including especially Egypt and Turkey -- to prevent Iranian
weapons from entering Gaza. Maggi said more pressure should
be applied in the EU and UN to gain more latitude -- and
possibly further action from the EU. He said tracking cash
flows, and increasing prosecutions and incarcerations were
important, with the ultimate goal of increasing cooperation
and momentum. Goldberger said Egypt sees Hamas as a national
security threat, and added that Egypt had closed 200 tunnels
since the beginning of 2009.
¶17. (S) Goldberger noted Egyptian domestic political

sensitivities, and questioned whether more commercial and
humanitarian goods could be allowed through the Gaza border
crossings. Gilad strongly stated that there were no limits
101
on commercial goods through the border crossings. Goldberger
asked about construction materiel like cement; Gilad said the
GOI would not allow Hamas to build bunkers -- goods such as
cement or iron would not be allowed because of their military
applications. He also argued that smuggling is a lucrative
business for all involved, including the Egyptian government,
and said the best way to stop the smuggling was to increase
arrests and incarcerations. Goldberger mentioned U.S.
economic and development assistance efforts in Sinai. He
noted that most requests to third countries to deny arms
transfer overflights are based on Israeli intelligence;
additional information/intelligence from the GOI would ensure
greater cooperation. Bar raised prosecuting shipping
companies complicit in arms transfers to Gaza; A/S Shapiro
said he would take that back to Washington for further
consideration.
Iraq/Yemen
----------
¶18. (S) On Iraq, DASD Kahl noted there are currently 125,000
U.S. soldiers in Iraq, which will be reduced to 50,000
soldiers by September 1, 2010 with complete U.S. troop
withdrawal by the end of 2011. He noted the U.S. goal of
establishing a long-term strategic relationship with a
sovereign, stable, and self-reliant Iraq. A/S Shapiro and
DASD Kahl briefed the GOI on U.S. efforts to assist the Iraqi
military to complete its counterinsurgency force, transition
the military to a force that can defend its borders, and
align the Iraqi military more closely to the United States.
¶19. (S) DASD Kahl pointed to the growing threat (al Qaida, al
Houthi insurgency, and southern secessionists) in Yemen. He
said the United States is attempting to prevent Yemen from
heading toward an "Afghanistan-type scenario" with general
lawlessness and increased ungoverned spaces. BG Smith noted
that al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) continues to
fester in North and sub-Saharan Africa. He said Egypt is
actively involved in countering AQIM with 3,800 soldiers in
Sudan -- this should be encouraged and expanded.
¶20. (U) A/S Shapiro has cleared on this cable.
102
CUNNINGHAM
103
2010-02-22 2010-12-06 Embassy Tel
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SIPDIS
EO 12958 DECL: 02/22/2025

TAGS PREL, PTER, MASS, SY, LE, IS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI OFFICIALS REQUEST USG DEMARCHE
SYRIA ON
POSSIBLE MISSILE TRANSFER TO HIZBALLAH
REF: IIR 6-849-9075-10
Classified By: Luis G. Moreno for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
¶1. (S/NF) On February 22, 2010, BG Yossi Baidatz, Israel Defense

Intelligence (IDI) Chief of Production and Analysis, advised Embassy
Tel Aviv officers that IDI had information suggesting Syria intended
to imminently transfer SCUD-D missiles to Hizballah in Lebanon.
Baidatz explained that IDI viewed completion of such a transfer as
creating a “new level of concern” along Israel’s northern border, and
he requested that the USG demarche the Syrian government in an
attempt to dissuade them from transferring the missiles. Baidatz
requested that any demarche be delivered prior to the February 25
arrival in Washington of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
Baidatz was concerned that a demarche following Barak’s meeting in
Washington would lead the Syrians to believe that the U.S. and Israel
collaborated to uncover and thwart the transfer.
104
¶2. (S/NF) Embassy Tel Aviv’s Office of Regional Analysis is sending
additional details separately.
Cunningham
105
2009-05- 2010-12- Embassy
09TELAVIV1098 UNCLASSIFIED
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Appears in these articles:
http://www.spiegel.de
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SUBJECT: ISRAEL, A PROMISED LAND FOR ORGANISED
CRIME?
Summary
---------
106
¶1. (SBU) Organized crime (OC) has longstanding roots in Israel, but
in recent years there has been a sharp increase in the reach and
impact of OC networks. In seeking a competitive advantage in such
lucrative trades as narcotics and prostitution, Israeli crime groups
have demonstrated their ability and willingness to engage in violent
attacks on each other with little regard for innocent bystanders.
The Israeli National Police (INP) and the courts have engaged in a
vigorous campaign against organized crime leaders, including the
creation of a new specialized anti-OC unit, but they remain unable
to cope with the full scope of the problem. Organized crime in
Israel now has global reach, with direct impact inside the United
States. Post is currently utilizing all available tools to deny
Israeli OC figures access to the United States in order to prevent
them from furthering their criminal activities on U.S. soil. End
Summary.
Crime War Hits the Streets of Israel

-------------------------------------
¶2. (SBU) In November 2008, Israeli crime boss Yaakov Alperon was
assassinated in broad daylight in a gruesome attack on the streets
of Tel Aviv, only about a mile away from the Embassy. According to
several media accounts, a motor scooter pulled up alongside
Alperon's car and the rider attached a sophisticated explosive
device with a remote detonator to the car door. The bomb killed
Alperon and his driver, and injured two innocent pedestrians. The
hit was the latest in a series of violent attacks and reprisals, and
indicated a widening crime war in Israel.
¶3. In July 2008, a 31-year-old Israeli woman was killed by a stray

bullet on the beach in Bat Yam in front of her husband and two
children during a failed assassination attempt on noted crime figure
Rami Amira. In a feud between the Abutbul and Shirazi clans, crime
boss Shalom "Charlie" Abutbul was shot by two gunmen in
September
2008, an attack that also wounded three bystanders. In December
2008, Charlie Abutbul's son-in-law, Nati Ohayon, was gunned down
in
his car in Netanya. Before the fatal bombing of his car, Alperon
himself had survived at least three previous attempts on his life
before his assassination, and was engaged in an ongoing feud with
the rival Abergil clan (although there are numerous suspects in
Alperon's murder). The day after Alperon's death, two members of
107
the Abergil syndicate were sentenced for conspiring to kill
Alperon's brother, Nissim, in May 2008.
¶4. (SBU) In response to rising concerns for public safety, former

Prime Minister Olmert convened an emergency meeting of top law
enforcement officials, cabinet members, and prosecutors in
December
¶2008. He promised to add 1,000 officers to the INP and to allocate
approximately NIS 340 million (USD 81 million) to improve the
INP's
technical capabilities. In general, the rise in OC-related violence
has led some public figures to call for emergency state powers to
attack criminal organizations, and OC became a minor but
important
issue in the February 2009 Knesset elections. Former Labor Party
MK
Ephraim Sneh publicly decried criminal extortion in his campaign
ads, only to have his car torched in apparent retaliation outside
his home in Herzliya.
Background
------------
¶5. (SBU) Organized criminal activity is not a new phenomenon in

Israel, and major crime families are well known to the Israeli
public (the Alperons even featured in a recent reality television
program). Five or six crime families have traditionally dominated
OC in Israel, although the names and makeup of these syndicates
have
fluctuated in recent years. The Abergil, Abutbul, Alperon, and
Rosenstein organizations are among the most well known, but recent
arrests and assassinations have created a power vacuum at the top.
New names such as Mulner, Shirazi, Cohen and Domrani have
moved
quickly to fill the gap. Other up-and-coming groups include the
Harari, Ohana, and Kdoshim families. There are also a number of
rival families active in the underworld of Israel's Arab sector.
¶6. (SBU) Traditional OC activities in Israel include illegal

neighborhood casinos, prostitution rings, extortion, and loan
sharking, with each family controlling a different geographic
region. The Alperon family, for instance, dominates the Sharon
region, while the Abutbul operation is based in the coastal city of
108
Netanya. The focus is largely on easy money guaranteed by the
limited use of violence. Criminal involvement in the recycling
business, for example, has been well covered in the press. OC
families collect bottles illegally from municipal recycling bins and

restaurants, return them at the collection centers claiming twice
the actual numbers, and pocket the change for millions in profits.
Not Your Grandfather's Mob

---------------------------
¶7. (SBU) Despite their notoriety, OC figures have generally been

viewed as a nuisance to be handled by local police. Law enforcement
resources were directed to more existential security threats from
terrorists and enemy states. In recent years, however, the rules of
the game have changed. According to xxxxx, the old school of Israel
OC is giving way to a new, more violent, breed of crime. xxxxx told
conoffs that the new style of
crime features knowledge of hi-tech explosives acquired from service
in the Israeli Defense Forces, and a willingness to use
indiscriminate violence, at least against rival gang leaders. New
OC business also includes technology-related crimes, such as stock
market and credit card fraud, and operates on a global scale.
¶8. (SBU) As the reach of Israeli OC has grown, so have the stakes.
Crime families are working further from home and exporting
violence
abroad. Older gambling schemes have grown to include sprawling
casino franchises in Eastern Europe. The Abutbul family began its
gambling business in Romania over a decade ago, and now owns the
Europe-wide Casino Royale network. In 2002, Israeli OC turf wars
spilled into Europe when Yaakov Abergil and Felix Abutbul were
killed two months apart. Abutbul was gunned down in front of his
casino in Prague in a show of force by the Abergils as they
attempted to capture a portion of the European gambling market.
¶9. (SBU) Israeli OC now plays a significant role in the global drug
trade, providing both a local consumer market and an important
transit point to Europe and the United States. In 2004, Zeev
Rosenstein was arrested in Israel for possession of 700,000 ecstasy
tablets in his New York apartment, destined for distribution in the
U.S. market. He was ultimately extradited to the United States in
2006, where he is currently serving a 12-year prison sentence. Two
109
other crime figures, Meir Abergil and Israel Ozifa, are also facing
U.S. extradition charges on charges that include smuggling 100,000
ecstasy tablets into the United States.
¶10. (SBU) The prostitution business has also grown beyond the
neighborhood brothel. In March 2009, the INP arrested twelve
suspects in what is believed to be the largest Israeli-led human
trafficking network unearthed to date. Ring leader Rami Saban and
his associates were charged with smuggling thousands of women
from
the former Soviet Union and forcing them to work as prostitutes in
Israel, Cyprus, Belgium, and Great Britain. Some women were flown
to Egypt and smuggled across the Sinai border by Bedouins.
Law Enforcement Steps up the Pressure

-------------------------------------
¶11. (SBU) After years of perceived inaction, in 2008 the INP

created a new unit called Lahav 433. The elite unit operates under
the direct command of the police commissioner, and is charged
specifically with infiltrating and eliminating Israel's major crime
syndicates. Lahav 433 also cooperates closely with district
investigative units to combat smaller criminal organizations, many
of which are aligned with the larger crime families.
¶12. (SBU) Following Alperon's assassination, the INP initiated a

series of raids that led to the arrests of a number of leading crime
figures. Among their targets were Aviv and Adam Abutbul, sons of
crime-family head Charlie Abutbul, both charged with possession of
illegal weapons. (A third brother, Francois, is already facing
murder charges for a nightclub killing in 2004.) Police also
arrested gangland figure Amir Mulner for weapons possession and
conspiracy to commit a crime. Mulner is known to be an explosives
expert by army training, and is a suspect in Yaakov Alperon's
murder. He is also believed to be managing affairs for Rosenstein
while the latter serves his sentence in the United States.
¶13. (SBU) Yaakov Alperon's brother Nissim was arrested with 18

others in December 2008, in what was reported to be a "mafia
meeting" in a Tel Aviv-area caf. According to the Jerusalem Post,
the group may have been planning a revenge attack for his brother's
recent assassination. Alperon's son Dror, recently dismissed from
his army service for disorderly behavior, also faces several counts
110
of assault and was convicted on extortion charges. Also in
December, police in Netanya launched several raids on illegal
gambling houses and the homes of suspected money launderers with
ties to the crime families. In Ashdod, brothers Roni and David
Harari were arrested on charges of extortion. Regional police stuck
a blow against the Jerusalem Gang, and convicted its leader Itzik
Bar Muha.
Skepticism Hovers Over GOI Efforts

----------------------------------
¶14. (SBU)xxxxx told conoffs that

"thousands of foot soldiers" remain active on the streets despite
these aggressive anti-OC operations. He noted that approximately
2,000 people attended Alperon's very public funeral. xxxxx
expressed skepticism that recent arrests will bear fruit in the long
term without a sustained commitment to enforcement. He noted that
many of the crime leaders remain active while in prison and their
operations are not hampered significantly even when they are
convicted and jailed.
¶15. (SBU) In December 2008, former Prime Minister Olmert

himself
admitted that efforts to combat OC have long been diluted among
different agencies, and that INP technology lags far behind that
allocated to security services for counterterrorism. Given the
recent change in government and the current economic crisis, there
is public skepticism as to whether GOI promises to remedy the
situation will be fulfilled. In 2003, following a failed
assassination attempt on Rosenstein, then Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon made similar promises to commit manpower and resources to
combating the problem.
¶16. (SBU) It is not entirely clear to what extent OC elements have

penetrated the Israeli establishment and corrupted public officials.
The INP insists that such instances are rare, despite the
occasional revelation of crooked police officers in the press.
Nevertheless, there have been several dramatic revelations in recent
years that indicate a growing problem. In 2004, former government
minister Gonen Segev was arrested for trying to smuggle thousands
of
ecstasy pills into Israel, a case that produced considerable
circumstantial evidence of his involvement in OC. The election of
111
Inbal Gavrieli to the Knesset in 2003 as a member of Likud raised
concerns about OC influence in the party's Central Committee.
Gavrieli is the daughter of a suspected crime boss, and she
attempted to use her parliamentary immunity to block investigations
into her father's business. (Gavrieli is no longer a member of the
Knesset.) Just last month, Israeli politicos and OC figures came
together for the funeral of Likud party activist Shlomi Oz, who
served time in prison in the 1990s for extortion on behalf of the
Alperon family. Among those in attendance was Omri Sharon, son of
former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who was himself convicted in
2006 on illegal fundraising charges unrelated to OC.
Courts Testing New Powers

--------------------------
¶17. (SBU) In 2003, the GOI passed anti-OC legislation that carries
a maximum sentence of 10 years imprisonment for heading a
criminal
organization and three years for working in such an organization.
The law defines such a body as a group of people working in an
"organized, methodical and ongoing pattern to commit offenses that
are defined by the laws of Israel as crimes." The law also allows
for property forfeiture, both in the wake of conviction and in cases
where it is proven to belong to a criminal organization.
¶18. (SBU) Until recently, xxxxx, judges and lawyers have been
slow to make use of this authority, and are hampered by a lack of
resources, insufficient understanding of the tools at their
disposal, and reticence to mete out tough sentences. A witness
protection program for those who testify against OC is just now
getting off the ground, and is not backed by any specific
legislation. Nevertheless, on March 16th, a Tel Aviv district court
took the important step of sentencing 14 convicted criminals
belonging to two mob organizations in Ramle and Jaffa to up to 27
years in prison.
¶19. (SBU) Increased efforts by Israeli authorities to combat OC

have engendered retaliatory threats of violence. Recent press
reports indicate that as many as 10 Israeli judges are currently
receiving 24-hour protection by the police against the threat of
violence from members of crime organizations. Israeli OC appears to
be intent on intimidating judges personally, as a way of influencing
the legal process. Judges in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa have
112
been assigned police protection, underscoring the depth of the
problem.
Israeli Crime Reaches American Shores

--------------------------------------
¶20. (SBU) Israel's multi-ethnic population provides a deep well of

opportunity for Israeli OC to expand into new territory. Most
Israeli crime families trace their roots to North Africa or Eastern
Europe, and many of their Israeli operatives hold foreign passports
allowing them to move freely in European countries, most of which
participate in the visa waiver program with the United States.
Approximately one million Russians moved to Israel following the
dissolution of the Soviet Union, and Russian citizens no longer
require visas to enter Israel. Many Russian oligarchs of Jewish
origin and Jewish members of OC groups have received Israeli
citizenship, or at least maintain residences in the country. Little
is known about the full extent of Russian criminal activity in
Israel, but sources in the police estimate that Russian OC has
laundered as much as USD 10 billion through Israeli holdings. While
most Israeli OC families are native-born and the stereotype that
Russian immigrants tend to be mobsters is greatly overblown,
indigenous OC groups routinely employ "muscle" from the former
Soviet Union.
¶21. (SBU) The profit motive serves as a great unifier among

Israel's diverse demographic groups. According to xxxxx, some
Amsterdam-based Hasidic groups allegedly are implicated in
international drug smuggling through links to Israeli OC. Arab and
Jewish Israeli criminals routinely cooperate and form alliances to
expand control of lucrative drug, car theft and extortion rackets.
Even hostile and closed borders pose few obstacles to OC groups.
According to the INP, 43% of intercepted heroin in 2008 was
smuggled
from Lebanon, 37% from Jordan, and 12% from Egypt.
Israeli OC Operating Freely in United States

---------------------------------------------
¶22. (SBU) Given the volume of travel and trade between the United
States and Israel, it is not surprising that Israeli OC has also
gained a foothold in America. Over the last decade, media reports
have detailed a number of high-profile cases involving Israeli OC,
113
ranging from large-scale drug deals to murder. The ongoing Central
District of California grand jury investigation against the Abergil
family, where a RICO conspiracy case was initiated in December
2007,
best demonstrates the full extent of such criminal activity.
Investigators have linked Yitzhak Abergil and his entire network to
crimes of "embezzlement, extortion, kidnapping, and money
laundering." Yitzhak Abergil is currently under arrest in Israel
and facing extradition for related charges linking him to the murder
of Israeli drug dealer Samy Attias on U.S. soil.
¶23. (SBU) As part of an ongoing effort to track Israeli OC through

media reports and police sources, Post so far has identified 16
families and 78 related individuals who are at the center of Israeli
organized criminal activity. The consular section has revoked
several visas for those who have been convicted of crimes in Israel,
but many OC figures have no prior criminal convictions and carry
no
visa ineligibilities. As a result, many hold valid nonimmigrant
visas to the United States and have traveled freely or attempted to
travel for a variety of purposes.
¶24. (SBU) In March 2009, Post received information from law

enforcement authorities that convicted criminal and member of the
Abergil organization, Mordechai Yair Hasin, along with his pregnant
wife and child, was intending to flee Israel for Los Angeles on
valid tourist visas. Hasin's visa was revoked based on his
conviction, as were his family's visas after they were determined to
be intending immigrants.
¶25. (SBU) As in the Hasin case, Post is using every available tool
to limit OC travel to the United States, but such efforts are not
always successful. In June 2008, Post issued Adam Abitbul a valid
tourist visa. Abitbul had no prior criminal convictions, and
carried no visa ineligibilities. Several months later, Post
received information from the Los Angeles Police Department
(LAPD)
that he had traveled to the United States to carry out a hit.
Abitbul returned to Israel prematurely for his father's funeral, at
which time Post revoked his visa. (Post can only revoke the visas of
Israeli citizens while in country.) In a similar case, in October
2008 Post issued Moshe Bar Muha a tourist visa; he claimed to be
traveling for medical treatment. Post subsequently received
114
information from the LAPD that Bar Muha is in fact the brother of
Itzik Bar Muha of the Jerusalem Gang (see above) and a convicted
criminal.
¶26. (SBU) As recently as March 2009, Zvika Ben Shabat, Yaacov

Avitan, and Tzuri Rokah requested visas to attend a
"security-related convention" in Las Vegas. According to local
media reports, all three had involvement with OC. Post asked the
applicants to provide police reports for any criminal records in
Israel, but without such evidence there is no immediate
ineligibility for links to OC. Luckily, all three have so far
failed to return for continued adjudication of their applications.
Nevertheless, it is fair to assume that many known OC figures hold
valid tourist visas to the United States and travel freely.
Comment: Israeli OC Slipping Through the Consular Cracks

--------------------------------------------- ---------
¶27. (SBU) Given the growing reach and lethal methods of Israeli
OC,
blocking the travel of known OC figures to the United States is a
matter of great concern to Post. Through collaboration with Israeli
and U.S. law enforcement authorities, Post has developed an
extensive database and placed lookouts for OC figures and their foot
soldiers. Nevertheless, the above visa cases demonstrate the
challenges that have arisen since the termination of the Visas Shark
in September 2008. Unlike OC groups from the former Soviet Union,
Italy, China, and Central America, application of INA
212(a)(3)(A)(ii) against Israeli OC is not specifically authorized
per Foreign Affairs Manual 40.31 N5.3. As such, Israelis who are
known to work for or belong to OC families are not automatically
ineligible for travel to the United States.
Cunningham
115
2005-03-17 2010-11-28 Embassy
10:10 18:06 Tel Aviv
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of
the original cable is not available.
SIPDIS
EO 12958 DECL: 03/15/2010

TAGS PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IR, IS, COUNTERTERRORISM,
GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: MOSSAD CHIEF TO CODEL CORZINE: SOME
FOREIGN
FIGHTERS BEGINNING TO LEAVE IRAQ
Classified By: Pol/C Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons

1.4(b) an d (d).
¶1. (S) Summary: Mossad Chief Meir Dagan told CODEL Corzine
March 13 that Israeli and U.S. thinking on Iran largely tracks,
adding that he believes the EU dialogue with Iran will ultimately fail.
Dagan said that Israel has evidence that some foreign fighters have
returned home from Iraq, perhaps indicating that the tide may be
starting to turn in the U.S. battle against the insurgency there. He
worried however, that these militants’ countries of origin -- in
particular Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria and Sudan -- are ill-
equipped to control the returning jihadis, who might then pose a
threat to stability in the region and, ultimately, to Israel. End
Summary.
----
Iran
----
¶2. (C) Senator Jon Corzine, accompanied by Senate staff member

Evan Gottesman, the Ambassador, Pol/Res and Poloff (notetaker),
met with Mossad Chief Meir Dagan March 13. Acknowledging that
there are at times differences in analysis of the facts, Dagan stressed
that it is similarities rather than differences that are at the heart of
116
the GOI-U.S. intelligence relationship, particularly on Iran. The facts
themselves are not in dispute, Dagan continued, adding that the U.S.
and Israeli assessments of Iran’s intentions and plans are largely in
accord. Iran has decided to go nuclear, Dagan said, and nothing will
stop it. Dagan predicted that the EU dialogue with Iran will not
succeed and that the issue of Iran’s nuclear ambitions would
eventually go to the UN
Security Council.
-------------------------------------
Iraq - Foreign Fighters Heading Home?
-------------------------------------
¶3. (S) In response to the Senator’s question, Dagan said that the tide
may be starting to turn in Iraq with regard to foreign militant
activity. Dagan said Israel has evidence that foreign fighters
originating from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Syria and Yemen have
arrived back in their home countries, and he assumes that some had
returned to Saudi Arabia as well. Dagan predicted that, as with men
who fought in Afghanistan during the 80’s and 90’s, these returning
militants would stay in touch with each other, forming a network
based on their common experiences in Iraq.
¶4. (S) Stressing that Israel has no assets in Iraq other than a friendly
relationship with the Kurds, Dagan said that Israel’s interest is more
in the impact the jihadis from, for example, Jordan and Saudi
Arabia, will have once they return to their countries of origin.
Although he predicts Egypt and Jordan will “do all right,” Dagan
said he is less confident that governments in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon,
Syria, and Sudan are sufficiently well-equipped to face down the
domestic challenge these returning militants will pose. The
combination of their military training and the absence of strong
governments willing and able to confront these men could have a
devastating impact on Israel by causing chaos in their home
countries, he added. Dagan predicted that these jihadis will have less
of a direct impact on Palestinians, because Palestinians are already
well aware of militant views and opinions via Internet chat rooms.
Furthermore, Dagan said he feels that most Palestinians are not
searching for “foreign flags,” such as al-Qaeda, under which to rally,
because those inclined to do so are already being well-mobilized
under existing groups in the West Bank and Gaza.
-------
117
Lebanon
-------
¶5. (C) Dagan opined that Hizballah will never make the transition to
a purely political party in Lebanon, since the organization remains
very dependent on its jihadi orientation. Noting that even the recent
Hizaballah-sponsored march in Beirut has not deterred the Lebanese
from pressing for a full Syrian withdrawal, Dagan advised the U.S. to
remain firm in its demand for a complete pullout, and attributed the
willingness of the Lebanese people to rise up to U.S. action in Iraq.
--------------------------------------------- -------------
Essential to Use All Assets in the Fight Against Terrorism
--------------------------------------------- -------------
¶6. (C) Dagan said it is essential to combine all types of intelligence

assets, rather than relying exclusively on human intelligence or signal
intercepts, to counter terrorist threats. Terrorist organizations have
been seeking to obtain WMD as a matter of course and, unlike
countries that wish to acquire these weapons as a deterrent, non-state
actors would be more inclined to actually use them, in Dagan’s
opinion. Asked about the relationship between illicit activities such as
narcotic or arms trafficking and terrorism, Dagan confirmed that
terrorist organizations try to fund their activities by criminal means,
adding that credit card fraud and counterfeiting are also methods
favored by these groups. Weapons originating from Yemen and
Sudan are smuggled into the territories through Egypt for sale, as
well as for use by militants, Dagan said.
¶7. (U) CODEL Corzine did not have an opportunity to clear this
message.
*********************************************
******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv’s Classified Website:
You can also access this site through the State Department’s
*********************************************
******************** KURTZER
118
2005-03-17 2010-11-28 Embassy
14:02 18:06 Tel Aviv
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of
the original cable is not available.
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2015

TAGS: PARM PREL MNUC KNNP EU IR IS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: C-NE4-01083: ISRAELI INTENTIONS REGARDING
THE
IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
REF: STATE 26053
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer; Reasons: 1.4 (B) and

(D).
¶1. (S) SUMMARY: Israel sees Iran as the primary threat to

its security and sees the enrichment cycle as the "point of
no return" for Tehran's nuclear weapons program. The GOI
believes that diplomatic pressure with teeth, such as
sanctions, can affect Iranian behavior, and is lobbying the
EU-3 and IAEA on details of a permanent suspension agreement.
The Israelis support a unified international front but are
concerned that the USG may move toward the EU position.
Despite the GOI's focus on the diplomatic track, public and
private speculation about possible Israeli air strikes
continues. In weighing the military options, the GOI is
aware of significant differences from its successful strike
against Iraq's nuclear program in 1981, including an
uncertain and dispersed target set, the presence of coalition
forces in Iraq and the Gulf, Iranian capabilities to
retaliate through Hizballah and terrorism, and the changed
strategic environment. END SUMMARY.
--------------------------------------------- ----------
The Iranian Threat, "Point of No Return," and Timelines
--------------------------------------------- ----------
119
¶2. (S) PM Sharon calls Iran "the main threat to Israel" and
has recently expressed concern that some states are "getting
used to" the idea of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. Other
senior Israeli officials echo this, cautioning that Tehran's
nuclear weapons program poses what Mossad Chief Meir Dagan
calls an "existential threat" that alters the strategic
balance in the region.
¶3. (C) In a meeting with congressional visitors in December,

Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz described operation of the
enrichment cycle as the "point of no return" for the Iranian
program, a view shared by many senior GOI officials. Mossad
Chief Dagan went a step further, saying that the Iranian
program will be unstoppable once it no longer requires
outside assistance to complete the enrichment process. At
the technical level, the director for external affairs at the
Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) told poloff that the
critical step would be Iran's operation of a centrifuge
enrichment cascade.
¶4. (S) GOI officials have given different timelines for when
they believe Iran will have full enrichment capability. In
February, PM Sharon told the Secretary that he believes there
is still time remaining to pressure Iran, but that the window
of opportunity is closing quickly. DefMin Mofaz cautioned
that Iran is "less than one year away," while the head of
research in military intelligence estimated that Iran would
reach this point by early 2007. Technical experts at the
IAEC predicted that Iran would have enrichment capability
within six months of the end of the suspension agreement. A
few GOI officials admitted informally that these estimates
need to be taken with caution. The head of the MFA's
strategic affairs division recalled that GOI assessments from
1993 predicted that Iran would possess an atomic bomb by 1998
at the latest.
--------------------------------------------
Focus on Diplomacy and Concern with the EU-3
--------------------------------------------
¶5. (S) In the near term, Israel is focused on maintaining

diplomatic pressure on Iran to cooperate with the IAEA and
120
EU-3. Sharon defines diplomatic pressure to include UNSC
sanctions, e.g. on Iran's airlines and trade, as noted below.
President Katsav has said that Tehran is "very conscious of
international opinion." Other MFA and NSC officials point to
the current suspension and to Iranian reaction to the Mykonos
case as proof that diplomatic pressure can affect
decision-making in Tehran.
¶6. (S) The Israelis often express disappointment with EU-3

efforts, but see no real alternative at this time. PM Sharon
told reporters on March 10 that Iran uses the negotiations to
"play for time." In private, Sharon, his Cabinet, and
military leaders have all complained that the Europeans are
"too soft." Similarly, President Katsav has cautioned that
Iran will "cheat" on any commitments it makes. MFA staff
told poloff that they do not believe that the EU-3 effort
will be successful in obtaining a permanent suspension or
that the Europeans will support effective sanctions against
Iran.
¶7. (C) GOI technical experts said they have been lobbying the
Europeans and IAEA on several issues. First, the GOI would
like a clearer and more detailed listing of all activities
covered by the suspension, along with timelines for each
step. Second, they want more robust verification measures
and greater focus on Iran's denial of access to IAEA
inspectors. Third, the Israelis insist that any final
agreement must be endorsed by the UNSC to ensure that
noncompliance will be dealt with at an appropriate level.
Fourth, Israel is pushing the EU-3 to define benchmarks that
would signal a failure of the process, and to identify the
concrete consequences of such failure.
¶8. (C) According to the IAEC, the GOI has urged the Europeans
to examine bilateral or EU sanctions with small, but
noticeable, economic impacts. After telling the press on
March 10 that "it would probably not be advisable to impose
an oil embargo on Iran," PM Sharon advocated trade and flight
restrictions. Lower-level GOI officials said these steps
could include restrictions on Iranians studying in Europe,
limitations on travel by Iranian scientific personnel, and
suspension of landing privileges for Iranian airlines within
the EU. The goal, according to the deputy NSA for foreign
121
affairs, is unified pressure from the EU, Russia, and U.S.
for a "complete, full, verifiable cessation of the fuel cycle
program." In the short term, this means a full suspension of
all enrichment, reprocessing, heavy-water-reactor
construction, and related R&D activities.
--------------------------------------------- --
Israeli Preference for USG and UNSC Involvement
--------------------------------------------- --
¶9. (C) In light of their uneasiness with EU-3 efforts, the

Israelis are hoping for robust U.S. involvement and action by
the UNSC. PM Sharon has urged the EU-3 to continue its
efforts, but also stressed the importance of preparing to
take Iran to the UNSC. In a meeting with a CoDel on December
12, DefMin Mofaz pushed for the U.S. to take the lead with
the Europeans and pursue all diplomatic solutions, including
sanctions. President Katsav asked the Secretary not to "wait
for the Europeans."
¶10. (C) This desire for U.S. activity is amplified by the

extremely limited options open to Israel on the diplomatic
front. The IAEC's director for non-proliferation admitted
that the GOI sees "little we can do" to increase pressure on
Iran as long as Tehran abides by the suspension agreement.
The MFA's office director for the Gulf states said that
Israel would maintain its low-profile diplomatic activities,
such as supplying IAEA members with intelligence material
related to the Iranian program. She said the MFA believes
that any overt Israeli pressure would backfire, leading to a
surge of Arab support for Iran and focusing attention on
Israel's own nuclear activities.
¶11. (C) Following the recent announcements on Iran by the

President and the Secretary, several Israeli officials asked
if the USG is shifting its policy on Iran. The deputy NSA
for foreign affairs acknowledged that the U.S. move is
probably necessary to build international consensus for
taking Iran to the UNSC. At the same time, he expressed
concern that the USG would be influenced by what he called
the EU's habit of granting concessions to Iran prior to full
compliance. Mid-level staffers at the NSC and IAEC were also
disquieted by U.S. press reports claiming that the USG is
122
re-examining its position on Hizballah.
------------------------------------------
The Military Option: Bushehr is not Osirak
------------------------------------------
¶12. (S) Despite frustrations with diplomatic efforts, Israeli

officials are understandably reluctant to discuss possible
military options. In public, PM Sharon has stressed the
importance of the "political and economic" track. During a
recent discussion with a visiting USG official, IDF Deputy
Chief of Staff (and CoS-designate) Major General Dani Haloutz
similarly said "we don't want to go there." In February,
President Katsav told the Secretary that "the military option
is not necessary -- bring the issue to the Security Council."
¶13. (S) Public speculation about possible military strikes

usually focuses on the differences from the Israeli Air
Force's attack on Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981. In private,
GOI officials have acknowledged that several factors would
make any attack against Iran a much more difficult mission.
A senior military intelligence official told the Embassy that
the GOI does not know where all of the targets are located
and said that any attack would only delay, not end, the
Iranian program. The MFA's office director for the Gulf
states noted that potential target sites are well dispersed
throughout the country, with several located in built-up
civilian areas. The IAEC stressed the importance of Russian
assistance in restraining Iran's nuclear ambitions and said
that any attack on Bushehr would likely result in Russian
casualties and endanger Moscow's cooperation.
¶14. (C) MFA contacts said that the distance to the targets
and the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq and the Gulf raise
additional complications. An Israeli assault would
necessitate prior coordination with coalition forces in Iraq,
they maintained, leaving the USG open to retaliation
throughout the Islamic world, especially in Iraq. MFA and
NSC officials acknowledged that any attack would also elicit
a strong response from Arab states and the Palestinians,
effectively freezing the peace process.
¶15. (C) The Israelis realize that Iran would use any military
123
strike as an excuse to cease cooperation with the EU-3 and
the IAEA. In addition, the GOI is acutely aware of Iran's
ability to retaliate, both militarily and through attacks by
its regional surrogates. PM Sharon has claimed that
Hizballah has 11,000 rockets (and possibly UAVs) capable of
reaching Israel from launching sites in Lebanon. The MFA's
office director for the Gulf states said that she believed
that Iran would retaliate by inciting terrorist groups in
Israel and the Occupied Territories.
¶16. (C) Current USG, EU-3, and IAEA focus on Iran also
creates a situation that differs from 1981, when the Israelis
felt that the international community was ignoring the Iraqi
threat. Israelis hope that the others will solve the Iranian
problem for them, or as Vice PM Shimon Peres has said, "I do
not think that the matter of Iran needs to be turned into an
Israeli problem -- it is a matter of concern for the whole
world."
--------------------------------------------- --
Comment: Diplomatic Solution Preferred, but ...
--------------------------------------------- --
¶17. (S) COMMENT: The Israelis are focusing on diplomatic

channels in the IAEA and EU-3, and appear to have very real
concerns about the feasibility of military strikes against
the Iranian nuclear program. Nevertheless, the GOI has shown
time and again that it will act militarily if it believes
that its security is threatened, and the IDF is most
certainly keeping contingency plans up to date. The Israeli
press reported that in February PM Sharon's Security Cabinet
had given "initial authorization" for an attack on Iran. The
press reports cited an unnamed "Israeli security source," who
claimed that the USG would "authorize" an Israeli attack.
Post notes that it may not be possible to detect preparations
for any military strike. Air defense operations would pose
nearly perfect cover for civil defense and Air Force
activities preceding any attack. Due to both the extreme
sensitivity of the issue and the GOI's near inability to
prevent leaks, any attack order would be closely held,
probably even from many members of PM Sharon's Cabinet.
124
¶18. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: The GOI knows that we share
its
interest in preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Nevertheless, we should expect continued Israeli lobbying at
the highest levels urging the USG to ensure that the EU-3
effort is on track and backed by a solid international front.
We will also hear Israeli concerns that the U.S. position
may move toward the EU stance. At the same time, we should
recognize that Israeli intelligence briefings will
understandably focus on worst-case scenarios and may not
match current USG assessments.
*********************************************
********************
*********************************************
********************
KURTZER
125
2007-01-08 2010-11-28 Embassy Tel
07TELAVIV64 SECRET
16:04 18:06 Aviv
VZCZCXRO2156
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #0064/01 0081638
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 081638Z JAN 07
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/05/2017

TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV IS KWBG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE SECRETARY'S JANUARY
13-15
VISIT TO ISRAEL
¶1. (S) Madam Secretary, internal tensions among GOI leaders

have intensified since your last visit and have reached the
point that there appears to be little coordination or even
dialogue among the key decision makers. Therefore, we will
need to be sensitive to perceptions that we are favoring one
faction over another. The divisions at the top here are part
of an increasingly gloomy public mood, with a new corruption
allegations making headlines virtually daily, and a growing
sense of political failure despite Israel's strong economy
and a sustained success rate in thwarting suicide attacks.
Prime Minister Olmert's approval ratings were only 23 percent
in the latest poll, and Israeli interlocutors across the
political spectrum are speaking openly of a crisis of public
confidence in the country's leadership at a time when
126
Israelis feel an urgent need for strong leadership to face
the threats from Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizballah.
OPTIMISM ERODING
----------------
¶2. (S) The year 2007 has started off badly for Israelis.
The good feeling generated by PM Olmert's long-delayed
December 23 summit meeting with Abu Mazen quickly dissipated
under the weight of reports of a new settlement in the Jordan
Valley (now suspended by Peretz), continued Qassam rocket
attacks on Sderot and neighboring kibbutzim, foot-dragging on
both sides in implementing the transfer of tax revenues, lack
of progress on the release of Cpl. Gilad Shalit, and the
unpleasant atmospherics of the January 4 Olmert-Mubarak
summit, which was overshadowed by a botched IDF daylight raid
in the center of Ramallah in which four Palestinians were
killed.
¶3. (S) The Ramallah operation, which was authorized by the

IDF's West Bank commander without informing the Minister of
Defense, served as a stark reminder of the lack of
coordination between Israel's military and its civilian
leadership. When it comes to Israel's strategy for dealing
with Palestinians, it increasingly seems that military is
military, civilian is civilian and never the twain shall
meet! Despite Olmert's belated embrace of Abu Mazen as a
peace partner, there is growing concern that moderate Arab
willingness to maintain the embargo on Hamas may be eroding,
and that Fatah may fail to muster the popular support it will
need to depose Hamas, whether at the ballot box or in the
streets. Meanwhile, the upcoming release of the results of
the Winograd Commission's investigation of the Lebanon war
hangs like a sword of Damocles over the heads of Olmert,
Defense Minister Peretz, and IDF Chief of General Staff
Halutz. Peretz and Halutz have both publicly stated that
they will resign if the Commission holds them responsible for
serious errors in the conduct of the war, but Olmert has
refrained from public comments. Olmert is also awaiting the
results of several separate investigations involving
corruption allegations, any one of which could further damage
him severely, if not force his resignation.
127
¶4. (S) While Israeli anxiety over a possible dramatic shift
of U.S. policy as a result of the Iraq Study Group's report
has been allayed by statements by you and the President,
there continues to be deep uneasiness here that the
Baker-Hamilton recommendations reflect the shape of things to
come in U.S. policy. Israelis recognize that U.S. public
support for the Iraq war is eroding and are following with
interest the President's upcoming articulation of the
revamped policy, but they are deeply concerned that
Israeli-Palestinian issues not become linked in American
minds to creating a more propitious regional environment for
whatever steps we decide to take to address the deteriorating
situation in Iraq.
¶5. (S) Iran's nuclear program continues to cause great

anxiety in Israel. Given their history, Israelis across the
political spectrum take very seriously Ahmadinejad's threats
to wipe Israel off the map. Olmert has been quite clear in
his public comments that Israel cannot tolerate a
nuclear-armed Iran, a position stated even more emphatically
by opposition leader Netanyahu, who compares today's Iran to
Nazi Germany in 1938. Despite the worst-case assessments of
Israeli intelligence, however, there is a range of views
about what action Israel should take. The MFA and some of
the think tank Iran experts appear increasingly inclined to
state that military action must be a last resort and are
taking a new interests in other forms of pressure, including
but not limited to sanctions, that could force Iran to
abandon its military nuclear program. The IDF, however,
srikes us as more inclined than ever to look toward a
military strike, whether launched by Israel or by us, as the
only way to destroy or even delay Iran's plans. Thoughtful
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Israeli analysts point out that even if a nuclear-armed Iran

did not immediately launch a strike on the Israeli heartland,
the very fact that Iran possesses nuclear weapons would
completely transform the Middle East strategic environment in
ways that would make Israel's long-term survival as a
democratic Jewish state increasingly problematic. That
concern is most intensively reflected in open talk by those
128
who say they do not want their children and grandchildren
growing up in an Israel threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran.
LIVNI RISING
------------
¶6. (C) FM Tzipi Livni is frustrated by Olmert's continued

refusal to coordinate closely, and -- perhaps with an eye on
polls showing her popularity at over double the level of the
Prime Minister -- suggested to a Ha'aretz interviewer in late
December that she would challenge Olmert for the prime
ministership if he continued not to give her his full
backing. In the same interview, Livni provided an outline of
her thinking, but not a detailed plan, on the way ahead with
the Arabs, including negotiating an interim agreement with
the Palestinians in which the separation barrier would serve
as the border, and refusing to engage with Syria unless Asad
takes steps to end support for terrorism and distances
himself from Iran. Livni's policy adviser has confirmed to
us that she has engaged in her own discrete discussions with
Palestinians, but very much in an exploratory mode. Livni
told Senators Kerry and Dodd that she doubted that a final
status agreement could be reached with Abu Mazen, and
therefore the emphasis should be on reforming Fatah so that
it could beat Hamas at the polls. MFA officials tell us that
Livni is also focused on the need to keep Hamas isolated.
She and her senior staff have repeatedly expressed concern
that some EU member-states are wobbly on this point.
Meanwhile, Livni is keenly aware that unlike Olmert, she has
little to fear from the Winograd Commission report (nor is
she tainted by the corruption allegations that dog Olmert).
Her incipient bid to take Olmert's place could become more
serious once the report's preliminary conclusions are
released next month.
SHIFTING VIEWS ON SYRIA

-----------------------
¶7. (S) Olmert and Livni agree that negotiations with Syria
would be a trap that Damascus would use to end the
international pressure on it and to gain a freer hand in
Lebanon. While they see public relations downsides to
dismissing Syrian peace overtures out of hand, they continue
129
to insist that no negotiations will be possible until Syria
reduces its support for terrorism and/or takes direct steps
to secure the release of Israeli prisoners held by Hamas and
Hizballah. Olmert and Livni are supported in that view by
Mossad chief Dagan, who takes a dim view of Syrian
intentions. A significant part of the security
establishment, however, appears to be reaching the conclusion
that it is in Israel's interest to test Asad's intentions --
possibly through the use of a back channel contact -- and to
seek to wean him away from Tehran. They are joined in that
view by Defense Minister Peretz, much of the Labor Party and
the Israeli left, who argue that Israel cannot afford to
refuse to at least explore Asad's offer to negotiate, often
comparing that stance to Golda Meir's much-criticized
decision to spurn Sadat's offer to negotiate, which then led
to the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Press reports January 5 stated
that the defense establishment had recommended to Olmert that
he open an exploratory channel to Damascus in two months, a
timeline reportedly linked to the completion of reviews of
U.S. policy toward Iraq and the Middle East, as well as to
clearer indications of Abu Mazen's intentions and
capabilities vis a vis Hamas.
PERETZ-OLMERT TENSIONS
----------------------
¶8. (C) According to leaks from a recent Labor Party

leadership meeting, Amir Peretz said that he feels completely
disconnected from Olmert. Ever since Peretz' telephone
conversation with Abu Mazen which infuriated Olmert, the two
reportedly barely speak to each other. Television news
reports on January 4 trumpeted rumors that Olmert had decided
to remove Peretz as Defense Minister and replace him with
former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, who has already announced
plans to challenge Peretz for the Labor Party's leadership in
late May primaries. Even though the Prime Minister's Office
almost immediately denied the reports, there is little doubt
here that someone in the PMO was behind them. While much of
the Labor Party feels that Peretz has been a failure, both as
Defense Minister and as Party Secretary General, and Peretz'
popularity with the general public has hit rock bottom, Labor
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130
members widely condemned the media trial balloon, which they
saw as an unacceptable attempt by Olmert's advisers to
intervene in their party's leadership contest. In any event,
the incident is yet another indication of the intense degree
of personal rancor and dysfunction prevailing at the top of
the GOI.
PERETZ AND SNEH OUR AMA PARTNERS

--------------------------------
¶9. (C) Notwithstanding the GOI's internal discord, there is

some good news in our efforts to nudge the GOI toward
improvements in Palestinian quality of life issues. Despite
his political woes, Peretz has proven himself a serious
partner in our efforts to implement the Agreement on Movement
and Access (AMA) and more generally in a slow but steady push
by the MOD to force a reluctant IDF to accept steps to reduce
barriers to Palestinian movement and to revive the
Palestinian economy. Deputy Defense Minister Efraim Sneh,
who will likely accompany Peretz to your meeting, has emerged
as the point man for these efforts. Sneh shares Peretz'
conviction that Israel's security stranglehold on the
Palestinians is "winning the battle but losing the war," but
Sneh, who in a decades-long career served as a military
governor of the West Bank, commanded an elite combat unit,
and took part in the famed Entebbe raid, also has both an
intimate knowledge of the Palestinians and a combat
commander's credibility with the IDF that Peretz sorely
lacks. Your meeting with Peretz provides an opportunity to
express appreciation for his and Sneh's efforts and to
encourage them in their struggle to bring recalcitrant
elements in the IDF to heel. The more progress we can
achieve with them on AMA implementation now, the easier it
will be to achieve meaningful results with both parties in
the coming year.
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2007-04- 2010-11- Embassy
07TELAVIV1114 CONFIDENTIAL
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 001114
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SIPDIS
H PLEASE PASS TO REPRESENTATIVE ACKERMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017

TAGS: PREL PGOV KNNP EFIN IR KPAL IS
SUBJECT: CODEL ACKERMAN'S MEETING WITH
OPPOSITION LEADER
BINYAMIN NETANYAHU: ECONOMIC SQUEEZE ON IRAN
AND HAMAS;
SCENARIOS FOR A NEW GOVERNMENT; RIGHT OF RETURN
AS ACID
TEST OF ARAB INTENTIONS
REF: TEL AVIV 1086
¶1. (C) Summary. Representative Gary Ackerman (D, New York),

Chairman of the Middle East and South Asia Subcommittee of
the House International Relations Committee, accompanied by
the Ambassador, met with Opposition Leader Binyamin Netanyahu
at the Knesset April 11. The discussion covered Netanyahu's
ideas on how to pressure Iran in order to block its nuclear
program and topple President Ahmadinejad; Netanyahu's views
133
on dealing with the Palestinians; his critique of Prime
Minister Olmert's handling of the Second Lebanon War; and
Netanyahu's analysis of Israel's domestic political
situation. On Iran, Netanyahu advocated intensified financial
pressures, including a U.S.-led divestment effort focused
largely on European companies that invest in Iran, as the
best way to topple Ahmadinejad. On the Palestinians,
Netanyahu did not object to supporting President Abbas but
said Israel and the U.S. should first focus more on
"strangling" Hamas. Netanyahu asserted that Israel's
mishandling of the Lebanon war had strengthened Israel's
enemies. He predicted that Olmert would not be able to stay
in power much longer, then described several different
mechanisms for forming a new government. Netanyahu expressed
confidence that the Israeli public recognized that he had
been right, that unilateral withdrawals were a mistake, and
that the priority now must be stopping Iran. Netanyahu noted
that he thought dropping the "right of return" was the acid
test of Arab intentions and insisted that he would never
allow a single Palestinian refugee to return to Israel. End
Summary.
¶2. (U) House Middle East and South Asia Subcommittee

Chairman Gary Ackerman, accompanied by the Ambassador, Pol
Couns, Subcommittee Staff Director David Adams, and Staff
member Howard Diamond called on Opposition and Likud Party
Leader Binyamin Netanyahu at the Knesset April 11. Netanyahu
was joined by foreign policy adviser Dore Gold and MFA North
American Department Congressional liaison Eyal Sela.
Toppling Ahmadinejad
--------------------
¶3. (C) Representative Ackerman told Netanyahu that in his

meeting the day before with Egyptian President Mubarak, he
had asked Mubarak if military action were necessary to
prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, should the
strike be carried out by the U.S. or Israel? Mubarak had
responded that if it came to that, the U.S. should do it and
Israel should stay out. Netanyahu said he took Mubarak's
point, but commented that he thought the Iranian regime, or
at least President Ahmadinejad, could be toppled by economic
pressure, including a divestment campaign. Noting that
134
economic sanctions lose their effect over time, but can be
powerful in the short term. The goal should be to encourage
Ahmadinejad's political rivals to remove him from power.
Afterward, if the pressure could be maintained it might be
possible to bring down the entire Iranian regime, but that
would also entail identifying alternative leaders. The idea
was to use economic pressure to create a public sense of
regime failure. Netanyahu said he had consulted with noted
historian Bernard Lewis, who believed that Iran would be less
dangerous once Ahmadinejad was removed.
¶4. (C) Netanyahu said there were three bills in Congress

designed to divest U.S. pension funds from investing in about
300, mostly European, companies currently doing business in
Iran. Divestment would immediately bring down the credit
ratings of these companies, thus forcing them to respond.
Netanyahu urged Congress to support the divestment
legislation, adding that he also planned to use a visit to
the U.S. to raise the issue with Wall Street fund managers.
His approach was to tie in Darfur to expand the scope of
anti-genocide divestment and link it to U.S. policy goals.
Netanyahu said he was unsure that financial pressures would
be enough to stop Iran's nuclear program, but he was
confident they would succeed in bringing down Ahmadinejad.
He commended Dore Gold's efforts to put Ahmadinejad on a
genocide watch list as part of a broader effort to
delegitimize the Iranian President. Asked about the quality
of U.S. and Israeli intelligence on Iran, Netanyahu said his
nightmare was that we had missed part of the Iranian program.
He added that if the current intelligence was correct, it
would take Iran a few more years to develop a nuclear weapon.
He agreed with Ambassador Jones' assessment that
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Ahmadinejad's announcement of a breakthrough in Iran's

centrifuge program was probably exaggerated. It would be
critical, Netanyahu stressed, to target companies investing
in Iran's energy sector.
Bring Down Hamas

----------------
135
¶5. (C) Congressman Ackerman asked Netanyahu for his views on
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Netanyahu said Abbas
was a "nice man who means well," but he added that Israel and
the U.S. should focus on "bringing down Hamas" through an
"economic squeeze." Netanyahu asserted that eight months
ago, the Hamas government had been on the brink of collapse,
but had become stronger because Israel became weaker as a
result of the Lebanon war. Without elaborating, Netanyahu
said it would be easier to weaken Hamas than to strengthen
Abbas.
¶6. (C) Netanyahu commented that Shimon Peres had admitted to

him that the Oslo process had been based on a mistaken
economic premise, and as a result European and U.S.
assistance to the Palestinians had gone to create a bloated
bureaucracy, with PA employees looking to the international
community to meet their payroll. Netanyahu predicted that
Palestinians would vote for Abbas if they believe that he can
deliver the money. He suggested putting in place an
"economic squeeze with an address," so that Hamas would
receive the popular blame. Asked if Fatah knew how to
conduct an election campaign, Netanyahu said the Palestinian
patronage system should be forced to collapse, which would
have an immediate impact since the entire Palestinian economy
was based on graft and patronage. Instead, he asserted, the
opposite was happening. Hamas was also handling the prisoner
release issue well since they had created the impression that
Hamas was in control of the process and "sticking it to the
Israelis."
¶7. (C) Congressman Ackerman asked if Abbas would survive

politically. Netanyahu said he was unsure, since politics
were stressful, especially Palestinian politics. The policy,
he added, should be to starve the NUG. If any money is
given, it should go directly to Abbas. Netanyahu said it was
not clear the GOI has a policy, there was a general climate
of weakness.
Lebanon War Failures

--------------------
¶8. (C) Turning to the Second Lebanon War, Netanyahu said the
136
problem was not the war's goals but rather the disconnect
between goals and methods. If the IDF had used a flanking
move by a superior ground force, it could have won easily.
Instead, Israel "dripped troops into their gunsights," an
approach he termed "stupid." The top leadership had lacked a
sense of military maneuver. In addition, they had been
afraid to take military casualties, but instead got many
civilian casualties. If Olmert had mobilized the reserves in
ten days, seized ground, destroyed Hizballah in southern
Lebanon, and then withdrawn, he would be a hero today.
Instead, Netanyahu predicted, Olmert will not last
politically. Olmert's current public support levels of three
percent were unsustainable.
A New Government?
-----------------
¶9. (C) Netanyahu said the pressure on Olmert was

accumulating as a result of corruption investigations as well
as the impending release of the Winograd Commission's interim
report. Olmert could be pushed out as a result of a
rebellion within the Kadima Party. Kadima members are
realizing they cannot allow Olmert to stay in power, but
Kadima itself might collapse since it was a "fake party."
Netanyahu described several options, including Kadima
replacing Olmert, a new coalition formed in the Knesset, or
Netanyahu's preferred option, new elections. New elections,
he stated, are supported by sixty-five percent of the public.
Netanyahu insisted he was in no rush since he was "enjoying
the time with his family" and rebuilding the Likud Party.
Likud was reaching thousands of new supporters, including
many highly educated professionals and high tech
entrepreneurs, through the internet.
¶10. (C) Netanyahu asserted there was a growing sense in the

public that he had been right in the last election.
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Unilateral "retreats" (i.e. such as the withdrawals from Gaza

and southern Lebanon) were the wrong way to go. Israel had
allowed an Iranian enclave to establish itself in Gaza.
137
Syria was arming itself for the first time in 20 years,
Hizballah had rearmed since the war, and Gaza was being
turned into a bunker. Egypt was not doing on a twelve mile
front along the Gaza border what Jordan was doing on a
150-mile front. The way out was to stop Iran, thereby
dealing with the octopus, not just its tentacles.
Right of Return the Acid Test

-----------------------------
¶11. (C) Netanyahu stated that a return to the 1967 borders

and dividing Jerusalem was not a solution since further
withdrawals would only whet the appetite of radical Islam.
Ackerman asked if the Palestinians would accept peace based
on the 1967 lines. Netanyahu said he would not agree to such
a withdrawal since the 1967 lines were indefensible, but he
added that the "right of return" was the real acid test of
Arab intentions. Instead of Israel making more step-by-step
concessions, Israel should insist that further concessions be
linked to reciprocal steps toward peace. The Palestinians
must drop the right of return and accept Israel's right to
exist. The Arab initiative did not meet this standard since
it keeps the right of return open. Israel will only have a
peace partner when the Palestinians drop the right of return.
Asked whether Israel could accept case by case exceptions,
Netanyahu insisted not one refugee could ever return. Israel,
after all, was not asking for the right of Jews to return to
Baghdad or Cairo.
¶12. (C) Netanyahu said UNSCR 242 was not a bad formula since
it did not specify precisely from which territories Israel
would withdraw. After the withdrawals from Gaza and Lebanon,
there was deep disillusionment among Israelis about the
principle of land for peace. Even the noted Israeli leftist
writer AB Yehoshua had said in a recent interview that he
despaired about peace because the Arabs wanted all of Israel.
From 1948 to 1967, the conflict had not been about occupied
territories, but that point had been obscured by "effective
propaganda." The root of the conflict was an Arab desire to
destroy Israel, which had now become part of the larger
ambitions of radical Islam.
¶13. (C) The 1967 borders were not the solution since Israel
138
was the only force blocking radical Islam's agenda of
overrunning Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu proposed that
Israel offer to work with the Saudis against Iran. If Iran
was not stopped, there would be no agreement with the
Palestinians, and the peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt
would come under tremendous pressure. There could be no
deterrence against "crazies" such as Ahmadinejad. Netanyahu
advised Congress to expedite the legislative effort for
divestment. If that did not work, we could reconsider other
options. Congressman Ackerman said that if Netanyahu came to
Washington, he would hold a hearing on divestment.
¶14. (U) CODEL Ackerman did not have the opportunity to clear
this message.
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WHITE HOUSE FOR APHSCT TOWNSEND.
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TAGS: PTER PREL KNNP KWBG EFIN IR IS
SUBJECT: APHSCT TOWNSEND TAKES STOCK OF BMENA
REGION WITH
MOSSAD DIRECTOR DAGAN
Classified By: Charge d'affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (B/D).
¶1. (S) SUMMARY: Frances Fragos Townsend, Assistant to the

President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism (AFHSC),
met Mossad Director Meir Dagan on July 12 for a general
discussion of regional security threats. On the Iranian
nuclear program, Dagan proved surprisingly optimistic about
the effects of United Nations Security Council (UNSC)
resolutions and their impact on Iranian elites. On most
other fronts, however, Dagan expressed deep skepticism
140
regarding any near-term solutions. Dagan believes that the
Syrians were emboldened by the Second Lebanon War, and argued
for a concerted international effort to enforce UNSC
resolutions in Lebanon as a means of removing Syria from
Iranian influence. In Dagan's personal opinion, present
attempts to prop up the government of Prime Minister Salam
Fayyad will fail, and "an entirely new approach" with the
Palestinians is required. Dagan and Townsend surveyed
political developments in North Africa, Turkey, and the Gulf,
and shared concerns about Pakistan's ability to withstand the
challenge of Islamic radicals. END SUMMARY.
--------------------------------------
Financial Sanctions Offer Hope on Iran
--------------------------------------
¶2. (S) Mossad Director Meir Dagan began his two-hour meeting
with Townsend by expressing satisfaction with sanctions
against Iran. Dagan said UNSC Resolutions 1737 and 1747
caught the Iranians off-guard, and were having an impact on
the Iranian elite and financial community. The resolutions
had been particularly successful through their indirect
consequences, explained Dagan, by stigmatizing Iranian
businesses and discouraging risk-averse Europeans from being
connected with Iran. Dagan praised ongoing GOI-USG
cooperation on this front, and added that domestic economic
problems were creating additional pressure on the regime.
¶3. (S) With regard to their nuclear program, Dagan said the
Iranians are attempting to convey a "false presentation" that
they have mastered the uranium enrichment process. The
reality is that they are not there yet, said Dagan, and they
are paying a heavy political price (sanctions) for something
they have yet to achieve. Dagan noted growing antipathy in
Russia towards Iran and its nuclear program, and said the
Iranians were shocked by Russian statements accusing them of
supporting terrorism against the United States. In Dagan's
view, there is no ideological conflict within the Iranian
leadership (all wish to see the destruction of Israel), but
there is a growing divide on tactics with some supporting a
retaliatory position against the West and others favoring new
policies of moderation. Recognizing the growing strength of
the moderate camp, Dagan said that the militant followers of
141
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are now trying to target
supporters of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani as spies.
--------------------------------------------- -
Gulf States Await Action (From Others) on Iran
--------------------------------------------- -
¶4. (S) According to Dagan, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf
States all fear Iran, but want someone else "to do the job
for them." Townsend and Dagan discussed the current state of
affairs in the Saudi royal court, where the Mossad Chief
accused Foreign Minister Saud bin Faysal of playing a "very
negative role." He also pointed to the recent visit of the
Saudi King Abdullah to Jordan as a historical first and
turning point for relations between the two countries.
Townsend agreed, and said that the Saudi king has a sense of
urgency on the political front. Dagan characterized Qatar as
"a real problem," and accused Sheikh Hamid of "annoying
everyone." In his view, Qatar is trying to play all sides --
Syria, Iran, Hamas -- in an effort to achieve security and
some degree of independence. "I think you should remove your
bases from there...seriously," said Dagan. "They have
confidence only because of the U.S. presence." Dagan
predicted, with some humor, that al-Jazeera would be the next
cause of war in the Middle East as some Arab leaders
(specifically Saudi Arabia) are willing to take drastic steps
to shut down the channel, and hold Sheikh Hamid personally
responsible for its provocations.
----------------------------
Syria Taking Dangerous Risks
----------------------------
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¶5. (S) Dagan echoed other reports that Syria expects an

Israeli attack this summer, and has raised its level of
readiness. Despite the fact that Israel has no intention of
attacking, said Dagan, the Syrians are likely to retaliate
over even the smallest incident, which could lead to quick
escalation. Dagan believes that Syria's strategic alliance
142
with Iran and Hizballah has not changed, and that Assad views
these policies as both "successful and just." There is a
tendency to assume that Syria can be separated from Iran,
said Dagan, and that this offers the key to weakening
Hizballah. Dagan argued that the opposite is true: by
enforcing UN resolutions on Lebanon and increasing efforts to
disarm Hizballah, the international community can remove the
glue that binds Iran and Syria. Enforcing the resolutions
would put additional pressure on Assad, who fears being tried
for the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri
above all else. The advantage of such an approach, continued
Dagan, is that the legal ground is already in place for
action by the UNSC. This credible threat could sufficiently
frighten Syria away from Iran and towards more natural allies
in the Arab League.
---------------------------------------------
Deep Pessimism on Relations With Palestinians
---------------------------------------------
¶6. (S) Departing from official GOI policy, Dagan expressed

his personal opinion that after more than a decade of trying
to reach a final status agreement with the Palestinians,
"nothing will be achieved." Only Israeli military operations
against Hamas in the West Bank prevent them from expanding
control beyond Gaza, lamented Dagan, without which Fatah
would fall within one month and Abbas would join his
"mysteriously wealthy" son in Qatar. Offering what he
believed to be a conservative estimate, Dagan said that USD 6
billion had been invested in the Palestinian Authority since
¶1994. "What did it accomplish, other than adding a few more
people to the Fortune 500?" asked Dagan. Although he
expressed his personal faith in Salam Fayyad, Dagan said that
the Palestinian Prime Minister had no power base. Fatah as a
party would have to completely reorganize itself in order to
regain credibility, argued Dagan, but instead they have
turned once again to the "old guard." The Mossad Chief
suggested that a completely new approach was required, but
did not provide Townsend any additional details.
--------------------------------------
Pakistan...and Other Regional Concerns
--------------------------------------
143
¶7. (S) Townsend and Dagan then embarked on an informal tour
of the region, comparing notes on countries critical to
combating terrorism. Dagan characterized a Pakistan ruled by
radical Islamists with a nuclear arsenal at their disposal as
his biggest nightmare. Al-Qaeda and other "Global Jihad"
groups could not be relied upon to behave rationally once in
possession of nuclear weapons, said Dagan, as they do not
care about the well being of states or their image in the
media. "We have to keep (President Pervez) Musharaf in
power," said Dagan. In North Africa, Dagan contended that
Qaddafi needs to be pushed more in order to put Libya on the
right track. Qaddafi faces little domestic pressure, said
Dagan, but has traditionally responded to outside threats and
runs foreign policy based on his emotions. The only reason
Qaddafi moderated his position to begin with, said Dagan, was
that he feared that he was "in the crosshairs" for regime
change. Dagan viewed the situation in Algeria as more
serious, with the south of the country becoming increasingly
dangerous and the leadership uncertain as it faces radical
Islamic forces. Morocco is coping better with these issues
"in spite of the king," said Dagan, who appears to take
little interest in governing. In Turkey, Dagan said that
Islamists there are not of the same cloth as others in the
region, but he does fear that they are slowly breaking down
the secular character of the state and could become more
radical over time. Dagan argued that if the Turkish military
received more direct support from the United States, it would
be better able to prevent the rise of Islamists.
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RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 4716
RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS PRIORITY 0552
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 0461
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 6800
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SIPDIS
TREASURY FOR LEVEY, S.

ATHENS FOR PURCELL, A.
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018

TAGS: KTFN EFIN ECON KWBG IR IS
SUBJECT: U/S LEVEY REASSURES GOI THAT NO
MOMENTUM WILL BE
LOST IN THE FIGHT AGAINST TERROR FINANCE
Classified By: A/DCM Marc Sievers for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
-------
SUMMARY
-------
1.(S) In a visit to Israel on 16-17 November, Treasury Under

Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Stuart A.
Levey, reassured GOI officials that no momentum would be lost
in USG efforts to combat terrorist financing or to pressure
146
Iran during the transition to a new US administration in
January. In meetings with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni,
Mossad Director Meir Dagan, National Security Council
Chairman Dani Arditi, and others, U/S Levey emphasized recent
U.S. designations against the Union of Good, the Islamic
Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), and the recent
revocation of Iran's "U-Turn" license. In response to GOI
officials' pressure to have the U.S. designate the Central
Bank of Iran (CBI), Levey underscored the importance of
international, multilateral concurrence for such an effort to
be a success.
2.(S) Israeli officials were keen to outline an "escalation"

in CBI programs that they believed pose a danger to the
international financial system. Several key Israeli officials
identified Reza Raei, Vice Governor of the CBI, as a key
figure in masterminding new ways to help the Iranian
commercial and banking sectors circumvent sanctions. Levey
promised to continue pushing the Gulf states on adopting
stronger regulation until the last day of his appointment.
3.(S) Mossad Chief Meir Dagan informed Levey that sanctions

were beginning to have a negative effect on Iran's regime.
NSC Chairman Arditi also told him that the PA was performing
well in its renewed fight against terror finance in the West
Bank. END SUMMARY.
--------------------------------------------- -----
GOI CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTER TERROR FINANCE
POLICY CONTINUITY
--------------------------------------------- -----
4.(S) National Security Council (NCS) Chairman, Dani Arditi,

in a November 16 meeting with U/S Stuart Levey, asked whether
Levey thought his efforts would continue into the next U.S.
administration. Even though he said he planned to resign as
required in January, Levey told Arditi that he believed the
Obama team would be committed to continuing the ambitious
program against terrorism finance that he has shepherded over
the last several years. Saying counterterrorism finance was
not a partisan issue in the U.S., Levey subsequently
confirmed these sentiments to Foreign Minister (FM) Tzipi
Livni and Mossad Director Meir Dagan in separate meetings
147
that occurred on the following day, November 17.
----------------------
IRAN/NON-PROLIFERATION
----------------------
5.(S) On November 16, Levey outlined for Ministry of Foreign

Affairs Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs Alon
Bar, and Senior Deputy Director General Yossi Gal positive
developments in the Iran effort. He told them that Treasury
had been very successful in curtailing business with Iran by
most "major players". Levey said that expanding the
non-proliferation strategy into insurance, and putting
pressure on Iran's oil refining capacity and Liquid Natural
Gas (LNG) industry were next steps being pursued. He also
reported that the recent IRISL designation has been unusually
effective.
CBI's Reza Raei Masterminds New Methods

---------------------------------------
6.(S) During their November 16 meeting, Arditi told Levey

that the Israeli intelligence community has continued to see
an escalation in CBI efforts to help designated Iranian
commercial banks circumvent international and U.S. sanctions.
The NSC Chairman presented several recent examples of CBI
behavior that he characterized as unusual for a central bank.
Arditi identified Reza Raei, Vice Governor of the CBI for
Foreign Exchange Affairs, as the mastermind of these new
TEL AVIV 00002760 002 OF 004
efforts.
7.(S) Meir Dagan subsequently told Levey that the CBI had
engineered a way for the UN-designated Iranian bank Sepah to
conduct foreign business transactions through use of the
Iranian Postal Bank. Bank Melli, a USG-designated bank, had
also purchased shares in investment funds as a way to escape
the effects of the sanctions, according to Dagan. Using these
methods, Melli and Sepah have been able to fabricate a method
of providing correspondent-like banking services to
148
designated Iranian banks that find it increasingly difficult
to deal in foreign currency. Arditi named the "Persia Equity
Fund" as one such financial instrument being used by Melli.
Levey commented that any such investment fund or financial
instrument could be listed as a derivative designation of
Melli if enough evidence could be shown linking the two
organizations. Levey told Meir Dagan that he was in favor of
pursuing a designation of Raei if GOI allegations were
accurate.
No International Support for Designation of the CBI

--------------------------------------------- ------
8.(S) Arditi and subsequently, Dagan, asked Levey whether the

USG was considering a designation of the CBI. Although
Treasury had looked into the possibility, said Levey, a
designation of the CBI would be ineffective without a
multilateral effort. International support for such an effort
simply did not yet exist, Levey explained. He told Dagan that
we need to build support by sharing info about the CBI's
illicit conduct, similar to the support we built for cutting
off the U-turn license. Levey said that it would be better to
focus on limiting other central and commercial banks'
business with the CBI. Noting that the banking industry
relies heavily on reputation, Levey told Arditi that the
right strategy is to continue exposing the illicit activities
of Iranian banks and banking officials.
European Banks' Business with Iran

----------------------------------
9.(S) MFA interlocutors revisited the progress of European

banks in non-proliferation efforts. In a November 16 meeting
with Yossi Gal, Senior Deputy Director General, and Alon Bar,
Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs, Gal raised
concerns that Italy and Germany were falling short in their
commitment to enforce sanctions within their banking sectors.
Gal told Levey that the MFA was planning a visit to Italy in
December, but was unsure whether its attempt to persuade the
politicians would filter down to action within the
bureaucracy. Gal expressed the same concern about the banking
sector in Germany, saying that resistance from the
bureaucracy and the private sector often undermined attempts
149
by political figures to improve German regulation. Bar and
Gal encouraged Levey to join the GOI in pressing the
governments and banking sectors of Germany and Italy to do
more.
Cautious Optimism on Gulf States

--------------------------------
10.(S) On the status of UAE efforts to stem Iranian finance,

Levey told Gal and Bar that he was optimistic about the
country's efforts. Among other examples, he mentioned that
the UAE had decreased the number of visas it was issuing to
Iranian nationals and that Emirati ministers were receptive
to his requests for increased banking regulation.
11.(S) FM Livni told Levey that Israel continues to encourage

the Gulf states to more publicly outline their actions
against Iranian finance within their banking sectors despite
the countries' reasons for keeping such actions secretive.
She asked Levey to join in this effort. Levey affirmed that
the USG was encouraging sanctions in all sectors and posited
that the Iranians were beginning to feel the pressure. Livni
asked if the declining price of oil was becoming leverage in
the efforts to thwart Iranian financial efforts. Levey said
that it was and that the Iranian private sector was becoming
more vocal in its criticisms of the government.
12.(S) Levey outlined for his GOI interlocutors recent
TEL AVIV 00002760 003 OF 004
efforts by Treasury to broaden its sanctioning of Iran to the

shipping, insurance, and reinsurance industries. He cited the
designation of IRISL as a positive first step and mentioned
that Treasury had found willing partners in Europe and the UK
to further efforts in this area.
Effect of Sanctions on Iran

---------------------------
13.(S) Dagan told Levey that the economic problems Iran is

experiencing as a result of sanctions are encouraging debate
150
within the regime. He said that in order to preserve the
revolution, some key figures have begun to consider the need
for change. The pressure is on, Dagan said, but he could not
estimate when Iran would hit the brink. He noted that the
lower cost of oil at the moment would likely prompt Iran to
increase its production, thereby encouraging more business
through the CBI. With oil prices low everywhere, however,
Dagan and Levey agreed that Iran was a less attractive place
for investment. Levey told Dagan that the present low oil
prices provide a critical opportunity to convince other
members of the international community to apply more
pressure.
14.(S) Livni asked Levey if there was a risk of Iran

regaining a foothold in certain markets as a result of the
world financial crisis. Levey said that the market turmoil
has worked to the USG's advantage: the crisis has made
financial institutions even more risk-averse, thereby
lessening Iran's attractiveness even further. Additionally,
while Iran's banks are isolated, its economy is not.
U.S. Engagement with Iran

-------------------------
15.(S) FM Livni asked Levey during their November 17 meeting

why the USG was considering a rapprochement with Iran through
a U.S. Interests section in Tehran. She questioned whether
the tactic would have a net positive outcome when measured
against the negative perceptions such a move would be bound
to create. Levey told Livni that this was a question better
posed to the State Department, but that her concern was the
central issue being debated by policy makers in Washington.
In Levey's previous meeting with MFA officials Bar and Gal,
he said that engagement with Iran would not work without
leverage, indicating that sanctions would need to be in place
no matter what the USG decides to do.
--------------------------------------------- -------------
STEMMING PALESTINIAN TERROR FINANCE: GOI PLEASED
WITH PA'S
PROGRESS
--------------------------------------------- -------------
151
16.(S) Levey told Arditi that Treasury's recent designation
of the "Union of Good" was proof of the USG's commitment to
continue to work against Hamas and Palestinian terrorists.
Levey said, however, that while the USG supported efforts at
thwarting terrorism in the territories, the USG wished to
keep humanitarian goods flowing to the needy within the
population.
17.(S) Arditi told Levey that Palestinian Authority (PA)

efforts at stemming terrorism within the territories were
going quite well. He said the PA's positive efforts
"surprised" his staff and that he "never thought" the PA
would do so well. Levey said that Treasury coordinated with
Prime Minister Fayyad on the Union of Good designation and
was pleased to hear that PA efforts were held in high regard
by the GOI.
18.(S) When Levey inquired about efforts to prevent

correspondent banking relations in Gaza from being severed,
Arditi said that the Postal Bank "was on the agenda". Arditi
lamented that the services provided by the Postal Bank would
not be as good because of its small size and limited
capacity. He expressed his hope that the central bank
governor would be able to delay the commercial banks'
decision to end their relationship with the Palestinians
until a permanent solution was ensured.
19.(S) This cable has been cleared by Under Secretary Stuart
TEL AVIV 00002760 004 OF 004
Levey.
*********************************************
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152
CUNNINGHAM
153
2009-02- 2010-11-28 Embassy
26 12:12 18:06 Tel Aviv
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DE RUEHTV #0457/01 0571219
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261219Z FEB 09
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019

TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL IS IR SY
SUBJECT: CODEL CARDIN DISCUSSES IRAN, SYRIA,
PALESTINIANS,
AND ISRAEL ELECTION WITH BENJAMIN NETANYAHU
Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)
¶1. (C) SUMMARY During their trip to Israel, CODEL Cardin

discussed Iran, Syria, Israel-Palestinian negotiations, and
the Israeli elections with Likud Party leader and candidate
for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu described a
nuclear Iran as the greatest threat facing Israel, and urged
strong economic sanctions backed by a viable military option
to confront a problem that he said threatened the region and
could prove a "tipping point" in world history. Describing
his approach to "economic peace" with the Palestinians,
Netanyahu suggested he would cut through bureaucratic
obstacles to Palestinian economic development to build a
"pyramid" from the "bottom up" that would strengthen the
Palestinian Authority, and offer the Palestinians a viable
alternative to radicalism. Netanyahu expressed support for
the concept of land swaps, and emphasized that he did not
want to govern the West Bank and Gaza but rather to stop
attacks from being launched from there. Netanyahu suggested
154
Syrian interest in peace negotiations with Israel were really
overtures to the United States, and described the Syrians as
firmly in the Iranian camp. Netanyahu expressed confidence
that President Peres would offer him rather than Kadima Party
leader Livni the opportunity of forming a coalition because
the bloc of center-right/right wing parties in the new
Knesset amounted to 65 seats. Netanyahu said his desire
would be to form a unity government with Kadima, but would
not agree to a rotating prime ministership. END SUMMARY
¶2. (SBU) As part of their February 14-17 visit to Israel,

CODEL Cardin met with Likud Party leader and candidate for
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 16 in
Jerusalem. Netanyahu was at the center of intense political
speculation about the formation of a governing coalition
following the extremely close Israeli national election of
February 10, which did not produce a clear winner. The CODEL
met with Netanyahu following meetings the previous day with
President Peres, and prior to meetings later in the day with
Prime Minister Olmert and Palestinian Authority Prime
Minister Fayyad.
----
IRAN
----
¶3. (C) Netanyahu quickly launched into his oft-stated

position that Iran is the greatest threat facing Israel.
Noting that "Persia" already had two bases on the
Mediterranean (referring to Hizballah and Hamas), Netanyahu
complained that Iran's "tentacles" were choking Israel, and
that a new one grew back whenever one was cut off. Netanyahu
charged that Iran was developing nuclear weapons with the
express purpose of wiping out Israel, and described
preventing Iran from developing a nuclear capability as
Israel's highest policy priority. Netanyahu described five
threats that he saw emanating from Iranian nuclear
development: a direct threat to Israel; a direct threat to
other regional states; increased terrorist power under an
Iranian nuclear umbrella; a Middle East nuclear arms race;
and a destabilized Middle East, with Arab regimes
"terrified" of Iran in his view. Netanyahu, commenting that
he normally avoided political jargon, pointed to one phrase
155
that he said applied to this issue - "a tipping point."
According to Netanyahu, if Iran develops a nuclear weapon
capability it will "topple the peace process" and "change the
history of the world."
¶4. (C) When asked what advice he offered to the United

States, Netanyahu reported that he had spoken to
then-candidate Obama and said the method was less important
than the goal, and asked rhetorically whether the President
would allow Iran to "cross the nuclear threshold ... on his
watch." Netanyahu suggested there were many ways to pressure
Iran, which he saw as economically weak at the moment due to
plunging oil prices at the same time that the U.S. President
had strong international backing, a situation Netanyahu
described as the opposite of the past few years. He said he
would look forward (as Prime Minister) to discussing with
President Obama concrete measures to be taken against Iran.
Netanyahu said these would not be a substitute for
Palestinian negotiations, but that any result from such
negotiations would be "washed away" by Iran's attaining a
nuclear bomb.
¶5. (C) When asked how Iran could be isolated, Netanyahu

suggested a blockade as one possibility. The nuclear program
could be stopped if the U.S. led the international community
to "ratchet up" economic sanctions, but that these sanctions
would only work if Iran knew that the U.S. military option
remained viable. Netanyahu said he did not object to a U.S.
dialogue with Iran provided the talks were close ended,
perhaps two months, with fixed results, otherwise Iran would
TEL AVIV 00000457 002 OF 003
"take you to the cleaners." He said he agreed with the

Europeans' urging the U.S. to postpone any talks until past
the Iranian elections in June. Netanyahu said he did not
know for certain how close Iran was to developing a nuclear
weapons capability, but that "our experts" say Iran was
probably only one or two years away and that was why they
wanted open ended negotiations. He again urged "tough
negotiations" if military means were not used (and added
that Special Envoy Mitchell was both nice and tough.)
156
Netanyahu described the Iranian regime as crazy, retrograde,
and fanatical, with a Messianic desire to speed up a violent
"end of days." That was not the whole country, however, in
his view, as he said that "75 percent of the Iranian people"
oppose the regime, but that it governed with terror and would
be hard to overthrow. There was no single view from
Iranians, therefore, but there was from the powers that
dominate. He reiterated that strong economic action could
stop their nuclear development or possibly even bring down
the regime - as could "the U.S. military process."
-----------------
PALESTINIAN TRACK
-----------------
¶6. (C) Turning to peace with the Palestinians, Netanyahu

said the reason the process had not worked so far was that
while 70 percent of Israelis were willing to make
concessions, the same number were convinced that there was no
real Palestinian partner. Netanyahu warned that when Israel
left Lebanon is created a first Iranian base, that when it
left Gaza it created a second Iranian base, and if Israel
"promised" a third retreat from the West Bank it would see
the same results. There were three options, according to
Netanyahu - withdrawing to the 1967 borders (that would "get
terror, not peace"); doing nothing ("just as bad"); or
"rapidly building a pyramid from the ground up." Netanyahu
suggested a rapid move to develop the West Bank economically,
including "unclogging" bureaucratic "bottlenecks." He
promised to "take charge personally" (as Prime Minister) to
facilitate this bureaucratic reform, which would occur in
tandem with political negotiations and cooperation with
Jordan to build up Palestinian Authority security capacity.
Netanyahu noted that there were larger demonstrations
against the Gaza operation in Madrid and London than in the
West Bank. He said this was because the West Bankers
recognized that Hamas represents the prospect of "violent,
crazy" people in charge of their society; they should be
offered real alternatives in order to have the strength to
resist the radicals.
¶7. (C) Netanyahu said his "new approach" would also

include not continuing to fund a "bloated" Palestinian
157
bureaucracy. It would be aimed at direct development.
Netanyahu, noting that he had previously "turned around" the
Israeli economy (as Finance Minister), gave one example of a
problem he would fix as an electric powerline in the West
Bank that was held up by conflicting and competing agencies.
He said this powerline was needed and would create jobs, but
was held up not because the Palestinians were targeted, but
because that was how the Israeli bureaucracy worked for
everyone, including Israelis. When asked whether these
reforms could include room to modify security arrangements,
Netanyahu agreed that some of what the GOI calls security is
in fact bureaucracy. Pointing to what he described as strong
but unpublicized trade between Haifa port and Iraq via
Jordan, he suggested assembly points could be set up in the
West Bank for some goods, which would create thousands of
jobs. This would not be a substitute for a political
settlement, according to Netanyahu, but economic prosperity
would make peace possible, as occurred in Northern Ireland.
-----
SYRIA
-----
¶8. (C) Netanyahu said he was actually more optimistic about

dealing with the Palestinians than with Syria, because he was
confident that the Palestinian Authority wants Iran and its
proxies out. He said he was less sanguine about Syria, which
he complained straddles the fence all the time. The Syrians
might "talk about" a new (U.S.) relationship, but he did not
see them disconnecting from Iran. Netanyahu suggested that
Israel "giving up" the Golan would just result in assurances
that Syria would later "tear up." Describing King Hussein as
heroic, and noting that the King came from his "death bed" in
1998 to get then-Prime Minister Netanyahu and
then-Palestinian Authority Chairman Arafat to reach an
agreement at the Wye River talks, Netanyahu said that when
Saddam Hussein took Kuwait, even King Hussein "snuggled up"
to the Iraqi leader out of necessity. Such is the reality in
the Middle East.
TEL AVIV 00000457 003 OF 003
158
-------------------
COALITION FORMATION
-------------------
¶9. (C) Despite finishing one Knesset seat behind Kadima and
its candidate Tzipi Livni in the February 10 Israeli national
elections, Netanyahu expressed complete confidence that
President Peres would offer him the opportunity to form a
government because the bloc of center-right/right wing
parties in the new Knesset has 65 seats compared to Livni's
potential bloc of 45 seats for center-left/left wing parties
plus 11 seats for Arab parties. Netanyahu said his desire
would be to form a unity government with Kadima, but would
not agree to a rotating prime ministership with Ms. Livni.
He explained that the one time Israel had a rotation came as
a result of an exact tie between the two political
coalitions, but this time the right wing bloc was much
larger.
¶10. (C) When asked about Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael

Beiteinu party, Netanyahu reminded the CODEL that Kadima had
in fact included Lieberman in their government in its earlier
stages. Netanyahu stressed repeatedly that he preferred a
unity government, and said the large security and economic
problems facing Israel called for the strength that a unity
government would offer. Livni "collapsed" left- wing votes
(from Labor and other parties) to score a one vote margin for
Kadima over Likud in the elections, but took no votes away
from the right, according to Netanyahu. When asked what he
might offer to Kadima, Netanyahu suggested Kadima would get a
few key ministerial portfolios, but did not elaborate. He
said that he while he was convinced a rotating Prime
Ministership would not happen, he was confident a unity
government could. Netanyahu said the government would not
include the Arab parties.
¶11. (C) Netanyahu promised that as Prime Minister his

government would not "go back" to unilateral withdrawals, and
would have a clear focus. On the economy, he said Israel was
not a huge economy such as the United States or China, and
that he would be able to turn things around quickly, as "a
small share of a declining market" was big for Israel. Asked
159
about settlements, Netanyahu noted that he had not
established any new settlements when he was Prime Minister.
Half of the West Bank, the area east of the ridge line and
the Jordan Valley, is virtually unpopulated and only contains
a few settlements. In the other half, Israeli and
Palestinian populations are intertwined. Once the
Palestinian Authority develops into a real partner it will be
possible to negotiate an agreement over territory,
settlements and "refined" Palestinian sovereignty without an
army or control over air space and borders. Netanyahu said
it would be too hard to negotiate agreements over Jerusalem
and refugees until the other issues are resolved. Claiming
that many Palestinians accept this point, Netanyahu said he
was not talking about a delaying tactic but rather a
temporary freeze, adding that he hoped PA Prime Minister
Fayyad would still be around since Fayyad also thinks along
economic lines.
¶12. (SBU) As an example of economic development, Netanyahu

spoke about expanding faith tourism. He said that it "defied
imagination" that the well-known site on the Jordan River
where John the Baptist baptized Jesus was "paralyzed" by a
GOI/PA jurisdiction dispute. With Jericho only a mile away,
Netanyahu offered to give an "easy", secure "envelope" for
transporting tourists from the Galilee to this part of the
West Bank. That would lead to "co-production" that would
provide large revenue streams of tourist dollars to the
Palestinians, from a population that was already coming to
Israel. He asked why Israelis would be less disposed to
make concessions to a viable Palestinian government and
society. Netanyahu agreed that West Bank checkpoints take
too long, and offered to look into express lanes, increased
staffing, and other possible solutions - as Prime Minister.
¶13. (U) CODEL Cardin has cleared this cable.
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160
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SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2019

TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV KWBG IR IS
SUBJECT: ISRAEL'S RELATIONS WITH THE GULF STATES
FOCUS ON
IRAN, PERCEPTION OF ISRAELI INFLUENCE IN
WASHINGTON
REF: TEL AVIV 605
¶1. (S) Summary. MFA Deputy Director General for the Middle
East Yacov Hadas provided PolCouns March 16 with an overview
of Israel's relations with several of the Gulf states. Hadas
162
described Israel's relations with the Gulf as a function of
the Gulf Arabs' fear of Iran, but also as due to the Arabs'
belief in Israeli influence in Washington. Fleshing out some
of the points he had made earlier to NEA Acting A/S Feltman
(reftel), Hadas described Qatar's shift toward the radical
camp in the region as a "game" linked to Qatari rivalry with
Saudi Arabia. Hadas believes Qatar is feeling pressure from
Israel, Egypt and the Saudis, adding that he has been invited
to visit Doha for talks about how to resume normal
Qatari-Israeli ties. Hadas noted that while the Omanis are
generally correct in their dealings with Israel, they appear
not to recognize the seriousness of the threat from Iran. He
said that while the UAE is increasingly hostile to Iran, it
remains unclear how far they are willing to go in terms of
increasing financial pressures on Tehran. Hadas said the
Gulf Arabs feel that the U.S. does not listen to them and
therefore sometimes try to pass messages through Israel.
While he agreed that progress on the Palestinian track would
make it easier for the Gulf states to be open about their
ties to Israel, he cautioned that the Gulf states use the
peace process as an "excuse not to take action" against Iran
or in support of the PA. End Summary.
¶2. (C) PolCouns called on Deputy Director General for the

Middle East Yacov Hadas March 16 to follow up on Hadas' March
4 discussion with Acting A/S Feltman of Israeli-Gulf
relations. Beginning with Qatar, Hadas said there were signs
that various pressures on the Qataris were starting to have
an effect. Hadas noted that Qatar could only get its
humanitarian relief supplies into Gaza through Israel.
Qatari diplomats assigned to their Gaza consulate also had to
cross through Israel since Egypt would not allow them to
enter Gaza from Rafah. For now, the Israelis are not
allowing either Qatari assistance or personnel to cross into
Gaza. Hadas noted that he had been invited to visit Doha to
discuss reopening the Israeli trade office, which he saw as a
positive sign. He added that the Qataris needed to
understand that they could not expect to restore cooperative
relations with Israel without agreeing to reopen the trade
office.
¶3. (S) While Hadas was critical of the Qataris' treatment of

Israel since the Gaza operation, he stressed that he thought
163
Qatar's policies were not a matter of a shift in ideology
toward the radical camp, but linked to their rivalry with the
Saudis and, by extension, with Egypt. In private settings,
Hadas noted that the Qatari leadership harbored "no
illusions" about Iran. Prince Hamad had told the Israelis in
October 2006 that he believed Iran was determined to develop
a nuclear bomb no matter the cost. According to Hadas, Hamad
complained at the time that he felt the U.S. would not listen
to him and tended to believe what it heard from Iran.
¶4. (S) Hadas reiterated the point he had made to Feltman

regarding Oman, calling the Omanis the "most problematic" of
the Gulf states in terms of their view of Iran. With regard
to Omani contacts with Israel, Hadas said they were
"correct," but the Omanis never fulfilled their commitment to
open an Israeli office in Muscat. He said Oman has "its own
definition" of what poses a threat to the Gulf, partly due to
Oman's geographical location. He did not think Oman would be
willing to join the rest of the GCC against Iran.
¶5. (S) Hadas agreed that the UAE was increasingly hostile to
Iran, but there remained a question as to how far they were
prepared to go. The UAE has extensive trade and financial
relations with Iran, including money laundering, and it was
unclear whether they were ready to use these relations as
leverage. Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdallah has developed
good personal relations with Foreign Minister Livni, but the
Emiratis are "not ready to do publicly what they say in
private." (Note: It was clear from Hadas' remarks that
Israel's channel to Saudi Arabia does not run through the
Foreign Ministry.)
¶6. (S) Hadas said the Gulf Arabs believe in Israel's role
because of their perception of Israel's close relationship
with the U.S. but also due to their sense that they can count
on Israel against Iran. "They believe Israel can work
magic," Hadas commented. When considering a trilateral
U.S.-Israel-GCC partnership, Hadas suggested we bear in mind
that Iran's nuclear program is the primary source of concern
to the U.S. and Israel, while the Gulf Arabs also worry about
Iran for a host of historic and sectarian reasons.
164
¶7. (C) PolCouns noted that Arabs say that progress on the
Palestinian track would make it easier for them to publicly
engage Israel. Hadas countered that while peace with the
Palestinians is an Israeli interest and important in its own
right, it should not be the sum total of Israel's relations
with the Arab World. Arab League Secretary General Amre
Moussa had invented the "never-ending hurdle race" in which
Israel could never do enough to deserve a positive response.
The Israeli-Palestinian track should not serve as an excuse
for the Gulf to avoid action, whether against Iran or through
practical steps to support the Palestinian Authority.
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TAGS: PREL MPOS KNNP IR IS
SUBJECT: REP. WEXLER DISCUSSES IRAN WITH IDF
INTELLIGENCE
CHIEF YADLIN
Classified By: DCM Luis G, Moreno, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)
¶1. (S) Representative Robert Wexler (D, Florida),

accompanied by Deputy Chief of Staff Joshua Rogin and DCM
Moreno, met with Israel Defense Forces Intelligence Chief, MG
Amos Yadlin, on Sunday 10 May 2009. MG Yadlin focused his
discussion on the preparations for the upcoming visit of
Prime Minister Netanyahu to the United States and the Iranian
nuclear program. MG Yadlin informed Rep. Wexler that the PM
was preparing intensely for his upcoming visit to Washington.
In addition to hours of policy review, the PM had been
provided significant amounts of intelligence from the IDI and
Mossad on Iran's nuclear program. The intelligence presented
included assessments of the current status of the Iranian
program; timelines, effects of sanctions; views of the
international community; and outcomes of engagement. The
differences that exist between the intelligence community in
interpretations of the Iranian nuclear program as well as the
166
relationship between Iran and the Palestinians were also
presented. MG Yadlin indicated that the IDF had presented
its information last week, leaving the cabinet on Friday 08
May 2009 to consider policy options and how information will
be presented during the upcoming visit to Washington.
Although no direct feedback was provided, MG Yadlin opined
that the PM appears determined on Iran.
¶2. (S) Rep. Wexler asked MG Yadlin to expand on the

differences in the interpretations of the intelligence. MG
Yadlin explained that until 2003, Iran had violated the
Nuclear Proliferation Treaty by having a weaponization group
and although Iran could show civilian uses for a missile
program and a fissile program, there was no justification for
a weaponization group. He went on to say that Iran halted
its program in 2003 after the invasion of Iraq, but
reinvigorated the program in 2005. He expressed that some in
the US agree with this and others do not. He went on to
explain that Israel is not in a position to underestimate
Iran and be surprised like the US was on 11 September 2001.
¶3. (S) MG Yadlin explained that Israel tries to be more

precise than the US in estimating Iran's intentions and
timeline for obtaining a nuclear bomb. Iran is in the
position of wanting to pay only a minimum cost for its
current program. It does not want to be North Korea or what
Iraq was before 2003. Iran intends to keep resolutions and
sanctions at a certain manageable level and continue to
produce low enriched uranium until there is enough for
several bombs. MG Yadlin stated that Iran could decide to
produce a bomb by 2010, but Iran is waiting for the right
time in the future and that there are some who will always
doubt it despite the evidence.
¶4. (S) Rep. Wexler then asked about the prospect of

engagement. MG Yadlin said he does not oppose engagement,
and in fact gave a speech approximately six months ago
expressing that Israel needed to find a way to find positives
in engagement. He feels there needs to be an agreed upon
deadline; a measure for success or failure; and a plan B if
engagement does not work in order for engagement to have any
chance. He also expressed strongly that engagement should
have already started. MG Yadlin outlined four possible
167
outcomes of engagement. Two good outcomes would be the
Iranian nuclear program stopped or a failure of engagement
that allows Russia and China to see the US made all efforts
to prevent the program diplomatically and allows for greater
cooperation in the future. Two bad outcomes would be Iran
playing for time with no claim of failure on the part of
engagement or a bad bargain that still allows Iran to obtain
a nuclear bomb even if in a longer timeline. Rep. Wexler
went on to discuss that there is a third good option in that
the President may have better leverage with the American
public to support action if engagement efforts are attempted
and failed. Rep Wexler recommended that the Israeli people
need to consider the US perspective and public opinion. MG
Yadlin responded that he is not recommending the US enter a
third front, but it has to be understood that Israel sees
things differently and that Israel has to be ready and can
not remove the military option from the table. Rep Wexler
stated that he expected Israel would be pleasantly surprised
by the President's acceptance of all possible options in
regards to Iran.
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TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV MOPS IR KWBG IS
SUBJECT: CODELS CASEY AND ACKERMAN MEET WITH
DEFENSE
MINISTER BARAK
Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, reasons 1.4 (b,d)
¶1. (C) Summary: Post hosted two CODELS during the week of
May 25: one from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee led
by Senator Casey, the other from the House Committee on
Foreign Affairs led by Congressman Ackerman. Both
delegations met with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who
conveyed similar points on the Peace Process and Israel's
concerns about Iran. End summary.
Peace Process
-------------
¶2. (C) Barak began his meeting with the Casey delegation by
apologizing for being late due to what he described as an
"internal debate" at the Prime Minister's office regarding
169
the development of a response to President Obama's upcoming
speech in Cairo. He noted there are "perceived gaps" between
the USG and the GOI regarding the Peace Process, and
explained the GOI's internal debate is focused primarily on
how to ensure that the U.S. and Israel "trust each other."
Barak expressed confidence that PM Netanyahu is sincere in
wanting to "seize this opportunity and move forward" with the
Palestinians, but alluded to members of the coalition who do
not agree with this course of action.
¶3. (C) From his perspective, Barak told the Casey delegation
that the GOI was in no position to dictate policy to the
Palestinians or the USG regarding the Peace Process -- "it
takes two to tango, and three to negotiate," he said. Barak
noted that it is the GOI's responsibility to ensure that "no
stone is left unturned" regarding the Peace Process; if
efforts to achieve peace ultimately fail, then the GOI must
be able to state that every effort was pursued. He said he
personally had no objection to "two states for two nations,"
and panned Arab arguments for a bi-national state in Israel.
Barak said Israel envisions "two peoples living side by side
in peace and good neighborliness" as the final goal.
¶4. (C) With the Ackerman delegation, Barak focused on the

need for a regional approach to the peace process. He
supports a regional initiative for peace and cooperation for
the entire Middle East region to be launched by Israel. He
stressed as well the need to build trust and convince the
U.S. administration that the new Israeli government is
"serious in its efforts toward peace."
¶5. (C) Barak commented on political developments in the West

Bank and Gaza in both meetings. He said the GOI continues to
review its policy, and then added that the Palestinian
Authority has much to accomplish in terms of law enforcement,
a functioning judiciary, and regaining control of Gaza before
a "balanced" Palestinian state can be created. He has been
extremely impressed with the work of U.S. Security
Coordinator Gen. Dayton training PA security forces, and
commended Salam Fayyad's concrete, practical approach.
¶6. (C) Barak made clear in these meetings that he feels the
Palestinian Authority is weak and lacks self-confidence, and
170
that Gen. Dayton's training helps bolster confidence. He
explained that the GOI had consulted with Egypt and Fatah
prior to Operation Cast Lead, asking if they were willing to
assume control of Gaza once Israel defeated Hamas. Not
surprisingly, Barak said, the GOI received negative answers
from both. He stressed the importance of continued
consultations with both Egypt and Fatah -- as well as the NGO
community -- regarding Gaza reconstruction, and to avoid
publicly linking any resolution in Gaza to the release of
kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Shalit.
Iran/North Korea
----------------
¶7. (C) In his meeting with CODEL Casey, Barak said the GOI
believes its "keystone" relations with the USG remain strong.
He described the integral role the USG plays in preserving
Israel's Qualitative Military Edge (QME), especially when
faced with threats posed by Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas. He
noted that the GOI's positions on Iran are well known, and
described North Korea's recent nuclear test as a "second
wake-up call" (the first being the AQ Khan network). Barak
asked rhetorically how a lack of firm response to North Korea
would be interpreted by Iran's leadership, speculating the
USG would be viewed as a "paper tiger."
¶8. (C) In both meetings, Barak said "no option should be

removed from the table" when confronting Iran and North
Korea; engagement will only work in conjunction with a
credible military option, he said. Barak said he was
TEL AVIV 00001177 002 OF 002
personally skeptical that engagement would lead to an

acceptable resolution, and argued in favor of a paradigm
shift to confront the triple threat posed by nuclear
proliferation, Islamic extremist terrorism, and rogue/failing
states. He said a strategic partnership with China, Russia,
India, and the EU is essential in facing these threats.
Barak argued that failure to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran
would result in a nuclear arms race in the region as Turkey,
Egypt, and Saudi Arabia look to acquire nuclear weapons.
171
¶9. (C) When asked if the USG and GOI have fundamental
differences of opinion when assessing Iran's nuclear program,
Barak said we share the same intelligence, but acknowledged
differences in analysis. He suggested that the USG view is
similar to presenting evidence in a criminal court case in
which a defendant is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
As such, USG standards are tougher -- especially following
the failure to find WMD in Iraq -- while end-products such as
the 2007 NIE unintentionally take on a softer tone as a
result. Barak said the fate of the region and the world
rests on our ability to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear
weapons -- as such, the standards for determining guilt
should be lower as the costs are higher.
¶10. (C) In both meetings, Barak described Iranians as "chess,

not backgammon players." As such, Iran will attempt to avoid
any hook to hang accusations on, and look to Pakistan and
North Korea as models to emulate in terms of acquiring
nuclear weapons while defying the international community.
He doubted Tehran would opt for an open, relatively
low-threshold test like the recent one in North Korea.
Rather, Iran will seek ways to bypass the NPT while ensuring
its program is redundant and well-protected to prevent an
irreparable military strike. Barak estimated a window
between 6 and 18 months from now in which stopping Iran from
acquiring nuclear weapons might still be viable. After that,
he said, any military solution would result in unacceptable
collateral damage. He also expressed concern that should
Iran develop nuclear capabilities, other rogue states and/or
terrorist groups would not be far behind.
Pakistan
--------
¶11. (C) Barak reinforced his message regarding Pakistan in

both meetings. He described Pakistan as his "private
nightmare," suggesting the world might wake up one morning
"with everything changed" following a potential Islamic
extremist takeover. When asked if the use of force on Iran
might backfire with moderate Muslims in Pakistan, thereby
exacerbating the situation, Barak acknowledged Iran and
Pakistan are interconnected, but disagreed with a causal
172
chain. To the contrary, he argued that if the United States
had directly confronted North Korea in recent years, others
would be less inclined to pursue nuclear weapons programs.
By avoiding confrontation with Iran, Barak argued, the U.S.
faces a perception of weakness in the region.
¶12. (U) CODELS Casey and Ackerman did not have the
opportunity to clear this message.
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TAGS: PREL PARM MNUC KNNP EG IR
SUBJECT: U/S TAUSCHER'S DECEMBER 1-2 VISIT TO ISRAEL
Classified By: A/DCM Marc Sievers, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
¶1. (S) Summary: Under Secretary for Arms Control and

International Security Ellen Tauscher visited Israel December
1-2. U/S Tauscher focused her visit on setting the stage for
a successful Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review
Conference (RevCon) in May 2010. She consulted with GOI
interlocutors on potential strategy in addressing Egyptian
insistence on pushing for the establishment of a nuclear
weapon free zone (NWFZ) in the Middle East, as a way to
divert attention from Iran to Israel. U/S Tauscher
reiterated that the United States will not take any action to
compromise Israel's security and would consult closely with
Israel -- which GOI officials greatly appreciated.
Nevertheless, U/S Tauscher said the United States is
174
interested in exploring possible small steps involving Israel
to address some of Egypt's NWFZ concerns regarding the lack
of implementation of the 1995 resolution. GOI officials for
the most part were critical of these tactics, questioning why
Israel should be portrayed as part of the problem. They
recommended a more direct approach to President Mubarak --
thereby circumventing the Egyptian MFA -- in which Egypt is
reminded that Iran is the regional nuclear threat. Other
topics discussed include President Obama's arms control and
nonproliferation agenda, the P5 1 process and Iran's nuclear
program, the FMCT and CTBT, Jordan's plans for a nuclear
reactor, and Israel's qualitative military edge (QME). End
summary.
¶2. (SBU) U/S Tauscher met with National Security Advisor Uzi
Arad on December 1. Arad was accompanied by NSC Senior
Advisor and Nuclear Security Summit Sherpa Gil Reich. In a
separate meeting on December 1, U/S Tauscher met with MFA
Director General Yossi Gal, Deputy Director General for North
America Baruch Bina, and Deputy Director General for
Strategic Affairs Alon Bar. U.S. participants for the Arad
and Gal meetings included Political Counselor Marc Sievers, T
Senior Advisor James Timbie, NSC's Adam Scheinman, and
political military officer Jason Grubb. U/S Tauscher met for
dinner with Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) and MFA
senior officials on December 1, including IAEC Director
General Saul Chorev, Deputy Director General David Danieli,
and Director for Policy and Arms Control Merav Zefary-Odiz,
as well as MFA DDG Bar and Director for Arms Control Rodica
Radian-Gordon. On December 2, U/S Tauscher met for breakfast
with MOD Political-Military Chief Amos Gilad; U.S. attendees
included Charge D'Affaires Luis Moreno, Timbie, Scheinman,
and Grubb.
Arms Control/Nonproliferation Agenda

------------------------------------
¶3. (S) In various meetings with GOI interlocutors, U/S

Tauscher outlined an ambitious arms control and
nonproliferation agenda, beginning with the President's
Prague speech, and including other priorities such as a
follow-on to START, CTBT ratification, the upcoming NPT
Review Conference, and negotiating the FMCT. She noted that
175
negotiations with Moscow on START were slow to develop in
part due to delayed confirmations and Russian wariness. But
U/S Tauscher expected a START follow-on -- including a strong
verification regime -- soon.
¶4. (S) National Security Advisor Arad described President

Obama's arms control and nonproliferation agenda as "daunting
and challenging." He reaffirmed that the GOI will
participate in the April 2010 Nuclear Security summit in
Washington, noting that PM Netanyahu planned to attend the
summit as discussed between President Obama and PM Netanyahu
during their recent one-on-one meeting in Washington. GOI
Nuclear Summit Sherpa Gil Reich noted, however, that the
Holocaust memorial day in Israel might be a potential
scheduling conflict with the summit. Arad expressed
appreciation for the summit, noting that if the initiative
had been pursued ten years previously, perhaps proliferation
cases such as AQ Khan might have been prevented or at least
controlled. He wished the United States success negotiating
with the Russians on START.
¶5. (S) Due to the U.S. administration's prioritization of

arms control and nonproliferation, Arad also noted that the
GOI had recently reconvened a high level committee on these
issues comprised of GOI officials and experts from outside
the government. He noted that the committee had been formed
during President George Herbert Walker Bush's administration
to analyze treaties such as the CWC and CTBT, but stopped
meeting in 2007. U/S Tauscher expressed interest in meeting
with the group during her next visit to Israel; Arad took the
request on board.
Egypt and the NPT

-----------------
¶6. (S) On the NPT, U/S Tauscher reiterated the importance of

a successful Review Conference -- including hopefully a
consensus resolution. She raised U.S. concerns over
potential Egyptian actions at the RevCon, based on previous
decades of behavior and "10-15 year-old talking points." U/S
Tauscher said the United States is not "naive" with respect
to Egypt; nevertheless, the United States must make a
sincere, good faith effort to create the conditions for a
176
positive RevCon -- this might include small steps with Israel
to address some of Egypt's desire to demonstrate progress in
implementation of the 1995 resolution on a region free of
weapons of mass destruction.
¶7. (S) That said, U/S Tauscher reiterated that the United
States would consult and coordinate with Israel, and would
take no action that might compromise Israel's security. She
noted that the United States would like to elevate the NPT
RevCon issue to President Mubarak at an appropriate time, and
expressed interest in developing an alternate communication
track to Mubarak to circumvent the MFA, potentially through
Egyptian Intelligence Minister LTG Suleiman. U/S Tauscher
said her message to Cairo will be "very tough," and that
Egyptian obstructionist behavior linking Israel to Iran's
nuclear program is not helping Egypt.
¶8. (S) Arad said relations with Egypt were "relatively good,"
describing continued dialogue between PM Netanyahu and
President Mubarak, and strong channels of communication at
other levels. In many respects, he said Israel's relations
with Egypt are almost as good as during PM Rabin's time.
Arad said Egypt and Israel do not see "eye-to-eye" on some
issues such as Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, but
otherwise relations are strong.
¶9. (S) Arad described the Egyptian MFA, however, as a

"nagging problem" in the relationship, particularly regarding
the Middle East NWFZ issue, and noted Cairo's refusal to talk
to FM Lieberman. Other GOI officials expressed exasperation
over Egyptian motivations on the NWFZ; Reich raised Egyptian
behavior at the latest IAEA General Conference, as well as
Cairo's negative reaction to the IAEA Board of Governor's
recent statement on Iran. Arad said Israel has supported a
regional NWFZ as far back as 1992, provided Israel enjoyed
peaceful relations with its neighbors. He said the GOI has
spoken frankly with Cairo, noting that such behavior is not
helpful, and is misdirecting focus away from Iran.
¶10. (S) MOD Political-Military Chief Amos Gilad said Egypt

understands that Iran is the real threat to the region,
noting that a nuclear weapon-armed Iran is a redline for
Cairo. He averred that Egypt does not accept that Iran will
177
become a superpower, but remains afraid of its own domestic
political situation post-Mubarak. Gilad expressed succession
concerns, noting that Mubarak is "approaching the past more
quickly than the future." He added that Mubarak does not
have confidence in Egyptian Foreign Minister Aboul Gheit.
¶11. (S) MFA Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs

Alon Bar outlined repeated attempts by the GOI to engage with
the Egyptian MFA, but to no avail. He described Egyptian
actions linking Israel to Iran's nuclear program in the IAEA
as "not encouraging," and questioned how to convince Egypt to
drop this "obsession" over the NWFZ. Israel Atomic Energy
Commission (IAEC) Director General Saul Chorev and Arms
Control Director Merav Zefary-Odiz speculated that Egypt
feels challenged by Iranian attempts to acquire nuclear
weapons, and includes Israel in any public attack on Tehran
in order to give Cairo coverage from regional criticism. Bar
argued that the Egyptian MFA raises Israel's nuclear program
as a "wedge issue" in order to prevent better relations
between Israel and others in the region. IAEC Deputy
Director General David Danieli concurred, noting that Egypt
can use the nuclear issue to put Israel "in a corner" while
benefiting from positive relations between the two countries.
¶12. (S) Zefary-Odiz also reviewed her participation in an

International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and
Disarmament conference in September 2009 in Cairo. She
described the conference as "very confrontational," and that
it was clear Israel was targeted by Egyptian interlocutors.
Zefary-Odiz acknowledged that the GOI had anticipated such
behavior, and contemplated skipping the conference. She
noted that Egyptian officials also lambasted Iranian
participants, but were always careful to include Israel and
Iran in the same sentence.
¶13. (S) Arad said the GOI will take their cue from U.S.
"heavy-lifting": if there is a small step -- "not a
concession," he stressed -- that Israel could take to help
facilitate, then the GOI would consider it. He noted that
the GOI wanted to see a "reversal of trends" from Egypt
regarding Iran's nuclear program -- after all, it is in
Egypt's interest to do so. He said Israel continues to have
178
reservations regarding the NPT -- following nuclear pursuits
by Libya, Syria, and Iran, it is clear to the GOI that the
NPT is not sufficient and must be strengthened. The goal of
the NPT, he stressed, should not be to "prevent the next
Iran, but to stop Iran in order to prevent the next Iran"
from occurring.
¶14. (S) Chorev speculated that Egypt will aim to ruin the
RevCon. Bar said the Egyptians have not been held
accountable for past bad behavior at the NPT RevCon -- "they
have never paid the price." He noted that Cairo knows the
importance the United States attaches to a successful RevCon,
and therefore will try to leverage a "high price" in order
not to ruin it. He noted similar tactics with regard to
Egypt's counter-smuggling efforts along the border with Gaza.
¶15. (S) Timbie outlined several small steps that might

address Egyptian concerns and demonstrate progress in
implementation of the 1995 resolution and the Middle East
NWFZ: an IAEA forum on the experience of other regional
NWFZs; a special coordinator or rappateur on 1995 resolution
implementation; a statement from the United States, United
Kingdom and Russia reiterating the importance of the 1995
resolution; and exploring text with Israel and Egypt on
universality and compliance.
¶16. (S) Gilad questioned these steps from a

"tactical/strategic" context, and suggested this was not a
tactical matter. He argued against creating the impression
that Israel was the problem. Instead, Gilad recommended a
strategic, traditional approach -- concessions will only be
used by Egypt as leverage. He suggested the United States
remind Egypt of its special relationship based on U.S.
support, and reaffirm that Iran is the "bad guy." Gilad said
Egypt should also be reminded that most countries in the
region agree with the NWFZ concept in principle; the Egyptian
MFA's insistence on an immediate NWFZ neither fits the
current political reality nor makes sense as it diverts focus
from Iranian intransigence. He noted that Egypt listens to
the United States; it is therefore important to speak clearly
and directly when taking the issue to Mubarak.
179
¶17. (S) Chorev and Zefary-Odiz argued these steps had been
tried in the past -- and had failed. Danieli questioned why
Israel should take any steps at all. Based on experience at
the IAEA and the UN First Committee on Disarmament and
International Security, he said "nothing satisfies Egypt" as
Cairo "pockets every concession" and demands more -- "it's a
slippery slope." Danieli said Israel will not "play by
Egypt's rules." Bar concurred, noting that Egypt will "raise
the bar," and begin negotiations with these small steps as
the baseline -- he was skeptical such steps would prove
helpful.
¶18. (S) Arad characterized these steps as "talking endlessly"

-- that is "not progress," he said. He was uncomfortable
discussing Israel NPT compliance, especially as Israel is not
a party to the treaty. He also raised concerns regarding the
definition of the Middle East NWFZ -- did it also include
Pakistan, India and Iran, for example? Arad said such
questions should be posed to Cairo -- if Egypt is willing to
include Pakistan in its definition of a Middle East NWFZ,
then we can take that as a signal that Cairo is ready for a
serious conversation on the matter.
¶19. (S) Zefary-Odiz argued that the NPT as a "global

solution" is not appropriate in the current political
realities of the Middle East. Due to the region's prior
track record of NPT non-compliance, she said a gradual,
step-by-step process employing confidence building measures
be used to improve relations between neighbors. NPT partner
obligations should be enhanced, not reduced, she said.
Zefary-Odiz noted that only after peaceful relations are
established can arms control measures be pursued, starting
with conventional weapons and later focusing on
chemical/biological/nuclear arms. She said that Egypt and
other Arab states de-link comprehensive peace from arms
control measures -- Israel views these elements as
inseparable and sequential.
¶20. (S) On a related note, Chorev asked if Israel should

attend the RevCon as an observer. U/S Tauscher and Timbie
replied that the decision was ultimately the GOI's to make,
but offered to raise the issue in Washington . Chorev noted
that Israel would be careful not to "make any noise," and
180
could play a positive, consultative role. On the other hand,
Danieli acknowledged the argument that as a non-party,
perhaps it was not appropriate for Israel to attend.
Iran
----
¶21. (S) U/S Tauscher said the United States was very
concerned about the recently announced Iranian plans to build
ten additional uranium enrichment facilities. She reiterated
the two track strategy of persuasion and pressure, and noted
that the time for persuasion is "waning." U/S Tauscher said
the United States has "created the coalition" it had hoped
for, and was happy to see the recent IAEA BOG's resolution
transferred to the UNSC.
¶22. (S) U/S Tauscher noted that the United States was working
hard through the P5 1 process to encourage Russian and
Chinese cooperation to counter continued Iranian
intransigence and inflammatory rhetoric -- Russia and China
are "lynch pins," she said. She noted that Russia had worked
closely with the United States on the Tehran Research Reactor
(TRR) proposal, which Moscow considered an "elegant
solution," -- but Iran had not agreed. Keeping Russia
engaged, U/S Tauscher explained, also means Chinese
cooperation.
¶23. (S) MOD Political-Military Chief Amos Gilad described

recent Russian cooperation on Iran as encouraging, but
expressed reservations that Russia would join in any
sanctions against Iran. He explained that Moscow has raised
the provision of sophisticated Israeli unmanned aerial
vehicle (UAV) technology in exchange for canceling the S-300
sale to Tehran. Gilad said that Russian interlocutors had
acknowledged development gaps in their UAV platform, and is
prepared to pay USD one billion for Israeli UAV technology.
He reiterated that Israel will not provide its latest UAV
technology, arguing that such technology would likely end up
in the hands of the Chinese.
¶24. (S) Arad said the GOI appreciated the United States'
efforts regarding Iran, noting how hard the United States has
worked to build an alliance. He pointed to the recent IAEA
181
Board of Governor's resolution as a successful example of
U.S. efforts. Regarding the Qom facility, Arad said the GOI
was not surprised by Tehran's "chutzpah." He described a
high degree of alertness in Israel, and added that the GOI
studies daily Iranian posturing and boastful announcements in
an attempt to discern Iranian intentions. Arad commented
that the trends are bad, as Iran continues to accumulate low
enriched uranium.
¶25. (S) MFA DG Gal said there was not much difference in the
national intelligence estimations (U.S., UK, France, and
Russia) regarding Iran. He said the GOI takes "very
seriously" Iranian plans for ten new enrichment facilities --
"time is of the essence," and "now is the time to implement
crippling sanctions," he added. Gal likened the case for
enhanced sanctions to prescribed antibiotics from a doctor --
one must take the full course of antibiotics for the
prescribed period of time, or they will not work.
¶26. (S) Turning to his crystal ball, Gilad was not sure
Tehran had decided it wants a nuclear weapon -- but is
"determined" to obtain the option to build one. He
acknowledged that the engagement strategy is a good idea --
"as long as you understand that it will not work." Gilad
said it should be clear by February 2010 that engagement as a
option has failed -- the imposition of "crippling sanctions"
for the February/March/April timeframe is crucial. He said
Russian cooperation will be the key, and the current Russian
cooperative mind-set cannot necessarily be counted on in
several weeks time. By June of next year, Gilad said it
should be clear whether sanctions have worked. However,
given Tehran's clandestine nuclear program (e.g., Qom), he
said it will not be clear when Iran has reached the "point of
no return" -- he doubted Iran will choose to let it overtly
known that it has produced a nuclear weapon.
FMCT and CTBT

-------------
¶27. (S) IAEC DG Chorev raised the FMCT's future in the

Conference on Disarmament. U/S Tauscher acknowledged
frustration with Pakistan, and noted that while Washington
places a high priority on the FMCT, other efforts like a
182
START follow-on and the CTBT will come first. Timbie added
that it will take some time to negotiate an FMCT.
¶28. (S) Chorev asked about the current prospects for CTBT
ratification in the Senate. U/S Tauscher noted that the
START follow-on was a higher priority, and said the Senate
will likely focus on the Law of the Sea treaty before turning
its attention to the CTBT. She pointed to mid-term
Congressional elections in 2010, and explained that focusing
on the CTBT in 2011 might be more prudent given the
controversy associated with the treaty. U/S Tauscher
explained the necessity of making the case for the CTBT, and
hoped to build political momentum in favor of the treaty
through the release of the Nuclear Posture Review, a new
national intelligence estimate, and the handover on the
stockpile stewardship program.
¶29. (S) Chorev asked that the United States consult with the
GOI on the CTBT, where he said Israel could be "more flexible
than the FMCT." U/S Tauscher asked if the GOI might be
willing to make affirmative statements in support of the
CTBT; Chorev made no promises, but suspected such a statement
might be possible -- especially if it would help with Senate
ratification.
¶30. (S) Chorev described the FMCT as "very difficult" for

Israel. Scheinman confirmed that negotiations would be based
on the 2006 draft FMCT text, with an added verification
regime that is being worked on -- he described the
verification regime's definitions as "critical" in that
regard. Danieli questioned the FMCT's added value, arguing
that it would have little impact. He asked who was the
FMCT's real target -- India, Pakistan or even Israel?
Jordanian Nuclear Reactor

-------------------------
¶31. (S) IAEC DG Chorev raised Jordanian plans to build a

nuclear reactor. He said the GOI has decided not to oppose
the reactor, and have offered the Jordanians Israeli
expertise on where best to build it. Chorev said the IAEC
formed a steering committee with its Jordanian counterpart
comprised of three working groups focusing on safety,
183
geological surveys, and water issues. Chorev said the
steering committee first met in Amman in June 2009, and is
waiting to convene again. Danieli stressed that the GOI does
not want to hamper the Jordanian nuclear plans, but added
that Israel has concerns about border issues and security
associated with the reactor. Timbie said the United States
is pushing Jordan to sign a 123 Agreement along the same
lines as the recent agreement signed with UAE, only stronger.
Zefary-Odiz noted that Egypt is putting tremendous pressure
on Jordan not to accept a 123 Agreement.
QME
---
¶32. (S) U/S Tauscher reiterated the United States' strong

commitment to Israel's Qualitative Military Edge (QME), and
expressed appreciation for the GOI's willingness to work with
us through the newly created QME working groups. Both MOD
Pol-Mil Chief Gilad and MFA DDG Bar commended the newly
created QME working groups, and asked they be scheduled to
convene as soon as possible.
¶33. (U) T has cleared this cable.
CUNNINGHAM
184
2009-12- 2010-11- Embassy
23 10:10 28 18:06 Tel Aviv
VZCZCXRO3883
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #2777/01 3571034
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231034Z DEC 09
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 7238
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2019

TAGS: PREL PGOV KNNP MASS SY TU FR KWBG IR IS
SUBJECT: CODEL SKELTON'S MEETING WITH PRIME
MINISTER
NETANYAHU
¶1. (C) Summary. CODEL Skelton met with Prime Minister

Netanyahu November 16 at the Prime Minister's office in
Jerusalem. Their discussion covered Netanyahu's meeting with
President Obama the previous week, Netanyahu's interest in
resuming negotiations with the Palestinians, the Iranian
nuclear program and options for tougher sanctions, possible
negotiations with Syria, U.S.-Israeli cooperation on missile
defense, and Israel's objections to the Goldstone Report.
Netanyahu said his meeting with the President was the best
meeting that they have had. He stressed that he had told the
President that he is ready to negotiate with Abu Mazen now,
and contrasted Israel's position with the PA's setting of
preconditions for negotiations. Netanyahu listed steps the
GOI has taken to support Abu Mazen, noting that the PA is
185
"doing a good job" on security. A nuclear Iran, however,
would "wash away" all progress as well as undermining
Israel's peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan. Netanyahu
said that Iran is vulnerable to sanctions and urged the U.S.
to increase the pressure on Iran, with likeminded countries
if Russia and China will not support new sanctions in the
Security Council. Netanyahu commented that there is broader
Arab and European support for tough sanctions than in the
past, although the Arabs may not say so publicly. Netanyahu
praised President Obama's commitment to missile defense, and
commented that U.S.-Israeli cooperation on missile defense
sends a strong signal to Israel's enemies. He thanked the
CODEL for the Congress' support. Netanyahu said Israel faces
three main threats: Iran's nuclear program, the build-up of
rockets and missiles in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, and the
Goldstone Report, which condemned Israel for defending its
civilian population from years of rocket attacks. Netanyahu
said Israel will need to ensure that a future Palestinian
state cannot launch rockets at Israel's international airport
or critical facilities. End Summary.
Let's Get on with Negotiations

------------------------------
¶2. (U) CODEL Skelton, consisting of House Armed Services

Committee Chairman Ike Skelton (D, MO) and Mrs. Skelton,
Representative Steve Israel (D-NY), Representative Tim Murphy
(R, PA), Congressional Staff members Phil McNaughton, Michael
Casey, and John Wason, Military aides Colonel Jeff Koch and
PolCouns met with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu November
¶16. Netanyahu was joined by Deputy National Security Adviser
Rear Admiral (reserve) Avriel Bar Josef, media adviser Mark
Regev, policy adviser Ari Harrow, and a Congressional liaison
officer from the Israeli Embassy in Washington.
¶3. (C) Netanyahu began the meeting by noting his

appreciation for his meeting with President Obama at the
White House the previous week. Netanyahu described his
conversation with the President as "the best we've had so
far." He said that regarding negotiations with the
Palestinians, he told the President, "let's get on with it."
Netanyahu stated that his government had removed hundreds of
obstacles and roadblocks in the West Bank, helping the West
186
Bank economy achieve a seven percent growth rate, adding "and
we can kick it up to ten percent growth." Netanyahu said his
Bar Ilan address last June had been difficult for him, but it
had united Israelis in support of accepting a demilitarized
Palestinian state. The current GOI had also restrainted
construction in settlements more than its past several
predecessors.
¶4. (C) Netanyahu then contrasted his efforts with the PA,
which he said is maintaining a "political and economic
boycott" of Israel, setting preconditions for negotiations,
supporting the Goldstone Report in the UN, and is now talking
about a unilateral declaration of independence. Israel wants
to engage, but the Palestinians do not. Netanyahu quoted a
Palestinian official as saying that the PA had "exhausted the
negotiating process," then noted that the Palestinians have
not even started to talk to his government. The real
difference, he pointed out, is that Abu Mazen is facing
elections, while Israel has already conducted its elections.
Netanyahu also commented that the Palestinians had initially
expected the U.S. to "deliver Israel" on all of their
demands, but are now realizing that this will not happen.
President Obama understands, he stated, that Israel is ready
to move forward. The alternatives to negotiations are bad
for everyone. Netanyahu said that if Abu Mazen would engage,
they would confront all the issues. The process would not be
easy, but it has to get started.
¶5. (C) Netanyahu said the West Bank had remained quiet
during Operation Cast Lead because the Palestinians do not
TEL AVIV 00002777 002 OF 003
want to live under Hamas' rule. He asserted that according

to recent polls, Abu Mazen and Fatah would easily win an
election, even in Gaza. Netanyahu stressed that he was not
pushing for the Palestinians to hold elections, but was
instead focused on promoting the expansion of the West Bank
economy by removing both physical and bureaucratic obstacles.
He acknowledged that the PA is "doing a good job" on
security, though he added that PA leaders are not aware of
everything Israel is doing to support the PA's security. If
187
we could add a political process to the cooperation that
currently exists, we could get security, economic
development, and peace. Netanyahu warned, however, that if
Iran gets a nuclear bomb, the peace process would be "washed
away." Even Israel's peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan
would come under enormous pressure.
Iran Sanctions
--------------
¶6. (C) Chairman Skelton noted that his Committee is

following Iran closely. Netanyahu said he had advised the
President to stick to the deadline on the TRR offer, adding
that it is also important to ask Iran to stop its enrichment
activities. Netanyahu commented that there is a new mood in
the major European capitals in support of sanctions. The
U.S. does not need to depend on the Security Council, but can
work with likeminded countries. Sanctions should focus on
Iran's importation of gasoline, while also focusing on
opening up the information networks. The U.S. should lead
the world toward tougher sanctions, or more of the Arab
states will start appeasing Iran, as Qatar is doing.
Netanyahu summed up his advice as: "stick to the deadline,
be firm on the terms, and apply sanctions" if Iran does not
comply. He thought Russia may be more inclined than in the
past, but it would be best not to count on the Security
Council. Having set a deadline, the P5 1 should stick to it.
The Western powers at least will go along. We should close
the gap between understanding the problem and acting on it,
he said. Netanyahu said Israel's problems with Iran are not
limited to its nuclear program. Even without a nuclear
umbrella, Iran is sending hundreds of tons of weapons to
Syria, Hamas and Hizballah. The ship seized November 3 by
the Israeli Navy had on board two thirds of the amount of
rockets fired at Israel during the 2006 Lebanon War.
¶7. (C) Representative Israel asked Netanyahu about the

timetable for Iran to achieve a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu
responded that Iran has the capability now to make one bomb
or they could wait and make several bombs in a year or two.
It is important to bear in mind that the Iranian regime was
exposed as a fraud during their presidential elections. The
Iranian people detest the regime and have shown great courage
188
in the streets. The exposure of the Qom facility also helped
convince doubters in the international community that Iran
has a weapons program. Iran has a weak economy and a
fractured political system, so it is vulnerable to sanctions.
The time to act diplomatically is now, Netanyahu said,
adding that we still have a year or two to stop the Iranian
program. Netanyahu said he thought President Obama
understands Iran perfectly. The Arab leaders hope Iran will
be stopped, there is broad Arab and European support for
"vigorous steps." Chairman Skelton asked whether the Arabs
would state their support publicly. Netanyahu replied they
might not, but it would not make a large difference since the
Arab "street" will not rise up in support of the Iranian
regime.
Ready to Talk to Syria

----------------------
¶8. (C) Regarding Syria, Netanyahu urged the U.S. to press

Damascus to stop supplying arms to Hizballah. Noting that he
had stopped in Paris to meet President Sarkozy on his way
back to Israel from Washington, Netanyahu confirmed media
reports that Sarkozy had offered to mediate between Israel
and Syria. Netanyahu said he would prefer direct
negotiations with the Syrians, but added that he would accept
France as a mediator. President Asad, however, still wants
Turkey as the mediator. Noting that Turkish PM Erdogan had
recently stated that he would prefer to meet with Sudanese
President Omar Bashir than with Netanyahu, Netanyahu asked
how the Turks could be fair mediators.
Working Together on Missile Defense

-----------------------------------
¶9. (C) Netanyahu said that in addition to peace with the

Palestinians and Iran, he and the President had discussed
joint U.S.-Israeli efforts on missile defense. Netanyahu
TEL AVIV 00002777 003 OF 003
commented that he had personally visited the Juniper Cobra

joint military exercise. The program has reached a phase at
189
which it is possible to monitor incoming missiles with a good
lead-time, but it is still very expensive to intercept "crude
rockets" such as those fired from Gaza. The information
shield is moving ahead nicely, but the physical shield is
lagging behind. Netanyahu observed that it is very important
for the U.S. and its allies to be able to defend themselves
against missile attack. Chairman Skelton noted that U.S.
personnel who briefed the CODEL were very optimistic about
the program. Netanyahu said only the U.S. and Israel are
currently working on missile defense. This cooperation sends
a powerful message to Israel's enemies he noted, and thanked
the CODEL and the Congress for their support.
Goldstone Report a Key Threat

-----------------------------
¶10. (C) Netanyahu commented that Israel currently faces

three principal threats: Iran's nuclear program, missile
proliferation and the Goldstone Report. Goldstone gave
terrorists immunity to attack Israel if they fire from
populated areas. During Cast Lead the IDF send thousands and
flyers, text messages and phone calls to civilians, warning
them to get out of the way, yet Israel was accused of war
crimes. Hamas and other terrorists fired 12.000 rockets into
Israel from Gaza, Netanyahu said, noting that Israel is the
only country in the world faced with threats to annihilate
it. Netanyahu asked the CODEL to imagine a situation in
which Israeli Air Force pilots must consult with lawyers
before they can travel abroad. Former PM Olmert, former
FonMin Livni and DefMin Barak could be hauled before the
International Criminal Court. Netanyahu said he could not
accept that IDF soldiers could be charged with war crimes for
protecting their country from constant attack. The deaths of
several hundred civilians in Gaza was "tragic," Netanyahu
said, but there was no deliberate targeting of civilians by
Israel. Deliberate targeting of civilians is a war crime,
but what should Israel do when terrorists deliberately target
Israeli civilians and then hide within their civilian
population?
¶11. (U) CODEL Skelton did not clear this cable.

CUNNINGHAM
190
191

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2017

REF: TEL AVIV 1705

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d).

¶1. (S) SUMMARY: In a June 11 meeting that entailed

¶2. (S) SUMMARY, CONT.: Diskin described the overall security

¶3. (S) Speaking before the dramatic events of June 12-13,

¶5. (S) Diskin raised as another matter the question of

TEL AVIV 00001732 002 OF 003

glaring lack of leadership: "Dahlan is trying to manage

¶8. (S) While he described this overall relationship with the

TEL AVIV 00001732 003 OF 003

¶11. (S) Referring to the failed June 9 attempt by Palestinian

¶12. (S) Responding to the Ambassador's question, Diskin said

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2017

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)

¶1. (S) Summary. During a June 12 meeting with the

Gaza Fighting Not Israel's Main Problem

¶2. (S) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol Couns and DATT,

¶4. (S) In response to the Ambassador's question, Yadlin said

Gaza and West Bank Separating

¶5. (S) The Ambassador asked Yadlin for his assessment of

TEL AVIV 00001733 002 OF 002

kidnap Hamas activists. Yadlin agreed that Tawfiq Tirawi had

¶6. (S) The Ambassador commented that if Fatah decided it has

War with Syria "Could Happen Easily"

¶7. (S) Noting Israeli press speculation, the Ambassador

Fighting in Nahr al-Barid Positive for Israel

¶9. (S) Comment: Yadlin's relatively relaxed attitude toward

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d).

¶1. (S) In an August 17 meeting, Israeli Mossad Chief Meir

¶2. (S) Under Secretary Burns cited the MOU as tangible

¶3. (S) Dagan observed that the signing of the MOU on

TEL AVIV 00002652 002 OF 005

their lifetimes. As for Iraq, it may end up a weak, federal

¶7. (S) If Israel's neighborhood were not unstable enough,

¶8. (S) Turning to the Gulf Security Dialogue (GSD), Dagan

TEL AVIV 00002652 003 OF 005

nuclear capability, then we have to invest time and effort

¶11. (S) Dagan described how the Israeli strategy consists of

A) Political Approach: Dagan praised efforts to bring Iran

B) Covert Measures: Dagan and the Under Secretary agreed not

C) Counterproliferation: Dagan underscored the need to

D) Sanctions: Dagan said that the biggest successes had so

E) Force Regime Change: Dagan said that more should be done

¶15. (S) Under Secretary Burns stressed that the USG is

TEL AVIV 00002652 004 OF 005

will continue to encourage banks and financial institutions

¶16. (S) On Pakistan, Dagan said that President Musharraf is

¶17. (S) Dagan urged caution with respect to Lebanon, noting

18, (SBU) Accompanying Under Secretary Burns in the meeting

¶19. (SBU) Accompanying Mossad Chief Meir Dagan in the meeting

¶20. (U) Under Secretary R. Nicholas Burns cleared on this

TEL AVIV 00002652 005 OF 005

NSC FOR ABRAMS AND PASCUAL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2018

Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)

¶1. (C) Israel is preparing to celebrate the sixtieth

¶2. (C) Israelis' sense of pride in their achievements is

And Anxieties are Real

Changing Views on Palestinians

¶4. (S) Closer to home, Israelis' views of their relations