EVALUATION OF THE LIFE TIME OF POWER TRANSFORMER

WINDING INSULATION
USING RAYLEIGH REPARTITION

Adrian Munteanu, Laura Lelutiu, Lucian Iulian

Transilvania University of Brasov, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Brasov, Romania
adrian.munteanu@unitbv.ro

ABSTRACT
Smart grid technology is a new approach for promoting the energy efficiency and for accomplishing
the environment objectives. In this context, the lifetime of transformers have a great impact on the
quality of the delivered energy. The paper deals with a mathematical statistic method for estimation
of winding insulation lifetime of the power transformers, based on Rayleigh distribution. The
concept of the winding equivalent temperature is introduced.

Keywords: charge factor, normal repartition, Rayleigh repartition, equivalent temperature, life time.

1 INTRODUCTION operation. There are divergent points of views

The continuous diversification of using
conditions and increasing of electrical,
mechanical, thermal and environmental
solicitations of the electrical equipments
requires accurate knowledge of materials
characteristics, and especially the evolution of
these characteristics considering the nature,
intensity and duration of solicitations. On the
other hand, the users of this electrical
equipment want to know exactly the state of
the equipment components and eventually to
estimate their lifetime reserve.
For power transformers the most sensible
components to electrical and thermal
solicitations are insulation systems. Although
the number of dry transformers is in continuous
development, the energy system in all countries
is still based on traditional transformers with
oil-paper insulation. Due to the fact that these
transformers have a relatively extended
operating lifetime, knowing the insulation state
and furthermore, diagnosing this state is of
great importance in order to avoid an
unplanned and undesirable placing out of
operation of this type of transformers. This is
the reason why all manufacturers and users of
power transformers constantly record the
information regarding permanent and
accidental electrical and thermal solicitations
of insulation systems of the transformers in use
and try to estimate their state and their lifetime
reserve.
Even though the paper oil insulation system
has been studied for about a century, the
diagnosis of these states is still a difficult
regarding the main parameters characterizing
the degradation state and the evaluation manner
of the lifetime reserve. Many conferences and
international symposiums (IEEE, CIGRE,
INSUCON etc.) and specialized reviews keep
« the diagnosis of insulation state » as
preferred subject.
The simplest method for life prediction is
assuming that the total amount of water in
electro technical equipment increases
continuously and linearly, neither paper
humidity nor dissipation factor, nor specific
resistance will have a linear relationship with
temperature, which makes the calculation of
residual life directly from these parameters
impossible [1].
 G end -  G
rres  100 (1)
 G end   Gbeg
where: G is the water content, the time period,
G beg is the total amount of water at starting
point of measurement, G end is the total amount
of water at the end of measurement.
In years the relation became:
rres  
 G end -  Gbeg   (2)
 G   Gbeg
If the initial value G beg is not known the
residual life time is:
 G end - G τ2
In order to establish the equivalent temperature
rres  τ (3) of the transformer winding the differential equation
G τ2  G τ1
of winding heating is considered:
where: τ 2 and τ1 and τ is the interval of
dT
years between measurements. C +T = P. (8)
dt
Generally the end of life is due by a
combination of factors but in industry the
principal factor for end of life relates only to where: C - caloric capacity of the winding [J/K],  -
the transformers thermal factor. A classical thermal conductivity of the winding representing the
method of calculating the remaining life of a total transferable heat by conduction, convection and
transformer has been the Arhennius-Dakin radiation from the winding insulation in the time unit
formula. p, when the difference between the environmental
Remaining life t is: [2] temperature and the winding insulation temperature
is 1 K [W/K], T- winding temperature, [K].
B The solution of the equation (8) is:
t  Aexp  (4)
T 
   P
where A is the initial life; B is a constant T = C1 exp  - t   . (9)
 C  
depending on the material properties; and T is
the temperature in K . where C1 is integration constant.
Other method [3] shows that is possible to
calculate the remaining value for each of For t=0 results T  Ta where Ta represent the
electrical parameters (tan δ of insulation, environmental temperature.
insulation resistance, electric strength of oil,
tan δ of oil, conductivity oil, etc.). If the limits From relation (2) results the expression of
of these parameters are designated as r 0 and r 1 constant C1:
the current value r is between these limits. P
Useful values of any parameters are given in C1 =T a  . (10)

percentage by:
From relations (9) and (10) results the expression
r  r0
Ruse  100 (5) of the winding temperature:
r1  r0
P  P   
T=   T   exp  - t  . (11)
For residual value:   a   C 

r1  r The second term from relation (11) is likely to be

R res  100 (6) neglected because C<<Λ and
r1  r0

If the variation of this parameter with time,   

exp   t   0 (12)
r  C 
, is known,
τ
Results:
r1  r
Rres  P P  Pk
r (7) T=  0 (13)
 


where Pk represents the loses in windings and P0

Analyzing and studying these methods we
intend to propose a new method, based on the the loses in iron (in paper [4] the loses in iron where
statistical processing of measurement records. neglected.
Relation (13) becomes:
2 EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE OF
WINDING INSULATION Pk  P0
T= . (14)

The authors of the paper [4] defined the
equivalent temperature of winding insulation as the
supposed constant temperature at which, providing Noting with Pkn the winding loses in the nominal
the winding insulation was solicited, there would be regime result the winding loses in the nominal
produced a similar effect of insulation degradation to anything regime:
the degradation effect produced by the solicitation at
real temperature.
 2 From the daily consumed energy the current
P kn  I 
Pk = I 2 2
=   P kn . (15) intensity in the 400 kV winding is determined with
I n  In  the relation:

The transformer charging factor, noted Wi 6

10
with, is defined β as the ratio between the I1  24 , (21)
3 U 1 cos 
current intensity I and the nominal current
intensity I n :
where cos   0,92 is the neutral power factor,
I
β= . (16) the transformer being equipped with a control
In
system of the power factor.
The value of the nominal current intensity
For calculus simplification the variation in the 440 kV winding results:
with temperature of the winding resistance is
neglected. S
I1n   392,68 A
3 U 2 cos  (22)
Considering relations (14) and (15), the
relation (13) becomes:
β 2 Pkn  P0 The ratio between the current intensity value in
T= . (17)
 the secondary winding, given by (22) relation and the
nominal current intensity value leads to the charging
If in (17) relation β  0 than T  Ta , and factor of the transformer, noted with β (relation 14).
relation (17) will be:
3 THE NORMAL REPARTITION OF
P0
Ta = . (18) THE CHARGE FACTOR

In [1] considers almost the load current and
From(17) and (18) relations, noting implicitly the charge factor, keeps under a
Pkn
2
normal repartition laws with the repartition
with  = , results: density:
P0

f β  
1
exp 

 ββ 2 

 (23)
2 β2 
T
  
T  a β 2 Pkn  P0  Ta β 2 δ 2  1 .
P0
 (19)
2π σ  
 

where:
or:
n
1
β β1  β 2  β 3  ......  β n   1 βk (24)
1 T n n
β  1  p T  Ta (20) k 1
δ Ta
1
1
 β2 
n 
 2
  2
  2
β1 - β  β 2 - β  β n - β  


where: p  .
δ Ta n (25)
1
 β k - β 
2

The load current and implicitly the charge n
k 1
factor are hazardous variables taking discrete
values. The reference value for the difference d is given
The study was realized on a transformer
made by ELECTROPUTERE CRAIOVA by λ n where n is the series volume, and it is equal
factory, with: 250 MVA power and voltages of to 1920. For the reference value, taking in
400/110/20 kV. consideration the level of signification α=0, 05, λ=1,
Daily working regimes of this transformer for 36, results the value of 59, 59221. The Table 1
1996-2009 periods are characterized by daily active presents the evaluation procedure in concordance
consumed electric energy (Wi). with the nominal repartition.
The authors considered the active electrical In the Table 1 it is observed that for 4 from 12 classes
energy records for this transformer, recording daily (marked with *) the maximum values of the distance are
the active electrical energy on the for 400 kV side exceeded, so the normal repartition it is refused.
throughout a period of 13 years (1997-2003), in
MWh.
Table 1: The verification of concordance with
a normal repartition

Class X N_c Z

(0; 0,072] 0,072 78 -1,45

(0,072; 0,144] 0,144 213 -1,07
(0,144; 0,216] 0,216 450 -0,69
(0,216; 0,288] 0,288 861 -0,31
(0,288;0,360] 0,360 1197 0,06
(0,360; 0,432] 0,432 1374 0,44
(0,432;0,504] 0,504 1494 0,81 Figure 1: Charging factor histogram
(0,504;0,576] 0,576 1638 1,19
(0,576; 0,648] 0,648 1722 1,57 The concordance criteria between theoretical
(0,648; 0,720] 0,720 1839 1,95 and empirical repartition is:

(0,720; 0,792] 0,792 1875 2,33 d max   d  0,031.
n
(0,792; 0,864] 0,864 1920 2,71
Table 2: The concordance with a Rayleigh
Class F_(0) n*F_(0) D repartition
(0; 0,072] 0,073 141,120 *63,12
(0,072; 0,144] 0,144 277,632 *60,21 Class N nC F
(0,144; 0,216] 0,245 0,2451 *86,2 (0; 0,072] 78 78 0,0406
(0,216; 0,288] 0,382 1867,3 31,84 (0,072; 0,144] 135 213 0,0703
(0,288;0,360] 0,523 1900,4 25,41 (0,144; 0,216] 237 450 0,1234
(0,360; 0,432] 0,670 1913,2 6,72 (0,216; 0,288] 411 861 0,2140
(0,432; 0,504] 0,788 1513,1 24,72 (0,288;0,360] 336 1197 0,175
(0,504; 0,576] 0,975 1873,1 57,36 (0,360; 0,432] 177 1374 0,0921
(0,576; 0,648] 0,941 1808,2 *86,2 (0,432; 0,504] 120 1494 0,0625
(0,648; 0,720] 0,972 1867,3 31,84 (0,504; 0,576] 144 1638 0,075
(0,720; 0,792] 0,989 1900,4 25,41 (0,576; 0,648] 84 1722 0,0437
(0,792; 0,864] 0,996 1913,2 6,72 (0,648; 0,720] 117 1839 0,0609
(0,720; 0,792] 36 1875 0,0187
4 THE RAYLEIGH REPARTITION OF (0,792; 0,864] 45 1920 5
0,0234
THE CHARGE FACTOR 3
It is considered for the charging factor a Rayleigh Class F_a F_x D
repartition, with the density of repartition give by (0; 0,072] 0,0406 0,03295 0,0076
relation:
(0,072; 0,144] 0,1109 0,12545 0,0145
 β  2  (0,144; 0,216] 0,2343 0,26038 0,0260
2β
f β   2
exp     . (26) (0,216; 0,288] 0,4484 0,41504 0,0303
η  η 
  (0,288; 0,360] 0,6234 0,56735 *0,056
Where η is the Rayleigh repartition parameter, (0,360; 0,432] 0,7156 0,70075 0,0148
equal by 0, 3933 determined by the graphic (0,432; 0,504] 0,7781 0,80643 0,0283
method and by the least squares theory. This (0,504; 0,576] 0,8531 0,88291 0,0297
repartition was proposed considering the (0,576; 0,648] 0,8968 0,93376 0,0308
histogram of the charging factor presented in (0,648; 0,720] 0,9578 0,96496 0,0071
Figure 1, as realised after the repartition in classes of that
1920 values. (0,720; 0,792] 0,9765 0,98266 0,0061
(0,792; 0,864] 1 0,99198 0,0080
 From the Table 2 it is observed that only If note:
the 5th value is over the imposed value, so it is
possible to consider the charge factor verify a p
c
Rayleigh repartition. η

5 ESTIMATION OF THE WINDING Results:

INSULATION LIFE TIME

The temperature repartition density is:


g T   4c 2 exp  c 2 T  Ta   
(35)
 A exp c T  2

dβ dβ
g T   f βT   f β1 T   f β 2 T 
dT dT (27) where:

A  4c 2 exp c 2Ta   (36)

From (16) relation results:
β1  p T  Ta
Verifying if (26) relation is a repartition
density is calculated:
; β    p T  Ta (28)
 

dβ1 p dβ 2 p

Ta
 
g T dT  4c 2 exp  c 2 Ta  T  dT  4
Ta
 (37)
 ;  (29)
dT 2 T  Ta dT 2 T  Ta

For the temperature density repartition is

For the temperature repartition density considered the expression:
results the expression:
g T 
g1 T  
4

 c 2 exp  c 2 T  Ta  (38)
g T   f1 T   f 2 T f 3 T  (30)
6 THE REPARTITION DENSITY OF THE
where: LIFE TIME

The life time law expression τ is:

2
2 p T  Ta   p T T 
a
f1 T   exp   
τ  aexp bT 
   (31) (39)
η2 
η 
Than:
2
  p T T  1 τ
 2 p T  Ta T   ln (40)
exp   
a
f 2 T   b a
η 2
  η  (32)
 
1
dT   dτ (41)
bτ
p p
f 3 T    (33)
2 T  Ta 2 T  Ta For temperature repartition density we have
the expression:
Results:
dT
h τ   g1 T τ  
2 dτ
 2 p 2 T  Ta    
gT     exp   p T  Ta    c 2  τ  1
 η    η   (34)  
 c 2 exp c 2Ta exp   ln  
(42)
       b  a   b τ
2
 c  τ  1
 Aexp   ln 
 b  a   b τ
 Verifying if (42) is the expression of a 
 c2  1
repartition density is calculated: τ  A exp  τ1  exp τ1  a dτ1 
 b  b
τa  
 
c2  τ  1 Aa

  c2 
 h τ dτ   A exp b  ln a  bτ dτ exp  τ1   1   dτ 1 
τa τa
(43) 
b 
- bTa  
 b 
 

τ Aa 1   c2 
Changing the variable ln  τ1 results:  exp  τ1   1 


a b c2   b   - bTa
1
b (50)
τ  a exp τ1  (44) 
 Aa   c2 
 2 exp  τ1   1 
c b  b 
dτ  a exp τ1 dτ1 (45)     -bTa

 Aa 1  c 2  
Relation (42) becomes:  exp   1  τ1  
b c 2  
  1  b   - bTa
 c 2  a exp τ1  b
 h τ dτ  A exp  τ1 
 dτ1 
 b  ba exp τ1 
 Aa
τa τ1a  2
c b
 
exp  Ta c 2  b 
 2
A
b
c2
   exp cb τ  dτ
exp c 2Ta 1 1 

τ1a  (46) Conforming to [21] we consider the integral
 module (46), than:
c2 b  c2 

b c2
 
exp c 2Ta exp  τ1  
Aa
 b  τ1a τ 2
 
exp  Ta c 2  b  (51)
 
2
 exp c Ta 0  exp  c Ta  1  2
 c b

Conforming to [20] we consider the integral To establish the coefficients a and b of

module. equation (39) was used [3].
In equation (45) limits or integration are: It is obtained a curve presented in Figure 2.
This curve has the equation:
τ a  a exp bTa  ;
(47) ln τ  30,01297  0,05379T (52)
τ   a exp b    0

7 THE CALCULATION OF THE LIFE TIME

AVERAGE VALUE

The life time average value of the winding

insulation is given by relation:


τ  A τ h τ dτ (48)
τ
a

or:
Figure 2: Life time curve
 
 c2 τ  1 The approximation of the of the life time curve
τ  A τ h τ dτ  A τ exp ln  dτ 
 
 b a  bτ
with a line is very good, the correlation coefficient,
τ τ
a a
(49) the indicator r2 having the value of 0, 99681.
 2
c τ 1
 A exp ln  dτ

 b ab 8 CONCLUSIONS
τ  
a

The average value of winding insulation life time of

τ a transformer depends by statistical parameter of
Changing the variable ln  τ1 it is obtained
a Rayleigh distributions, by the ratio between copper
the average value of the winding insulation life loses (at short-circuit test) and iron losses (at without
time: load test) also by the medium temperature.
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