Political and legal Economic

changes changes

PESTEL
Environmental Socio-cultural
changes changes

Technological
changes
Political and legal
changes
 #1
Changes in taxes
 #2
Changes in tariffs
 #3
Changes in
subsidies
 #4
Changes in
infrastructure
investments
 #5
Changes in
research
investments
Millions of dollars are being poured into research to
develop the next great battery technology. Longer
charges on fewer cycles are needed to power electric
cars, handheld devices, home appliances, and backup
systems for when, say, the wind turbines stop turning.

Source: http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/02/0225_inventions/21.htm
 #6
Changes in degree
of involvement of
individuals and
private companies
 #7
Changes in rules
and regulations
 #8
Changes in
member states
An expanding European Union

Source: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_s2.html
 #9
Changes in
percentage of
men/women in
parliament
Percentage of women in national parliaments

Source:
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/global-markets-institute/featured-research/power-of-purse-doc.pdf
Economic
changes
 #1
Changes in gross
domestic product
GDP per capita across the world

Sources
International Monetary Fund, April 2008.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:GDP_nominal_per_capita_world_map_IMF_2007.PNG
GDP growth per year in %

Source: http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12376610
The economies of developing countries have grown
an average of over 7% annually for the past five
years. At these rates, world poverty will be cut by
more than half between 2000 and 2015.

Source:
2008 State of the Future.
http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/SOF2008-English.pdf
 OECD countries, which five decades ago
accounted for 75% of world GDP, today
account for less than 55%.

Source:
Javier Santoso, Director and Chief Economist of the OECD Development Centre.
29. September 2008.
http://emagazine.credit-
suisse.com/app/article/index.cfm?fuseaction=OpenArticle&aoid=242498&WT.mc_id=In%20Focus
%20International%2029.9.2008-243420%08=EN&lang=EN
 #2
Changes in
wages
Market Salary per hour Salary per hour
Engineering Assembly
China and India USD 3 USD 1 – 2

Russia USD 18

Japan and Korea USD 36 USD 19

North America USD 26

Western Europe USD 48 USD 37

Source: http://www.strategy-business.com/enews/enewsarticle/enews072909?pg=all
 #3
Changes in the
costs of real
estate
 #4
Changes in the
costs of food
 #5
Changes in
interest rates
 #6
Changes in currency
exchange rates
 #7
Changes in
inflation
 #8
Changes in
energy demand
World Energy Demand – Primary Energy Supplies

Source: http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Files/energy_outlook_2007.pdf
Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/13170705/Clean-Tech-Trends-2009
 #9
Changes in the
costs of Internet
broadband
Socio-cultural
changes
 #1
Changes in number
of people who are
born per year
9 countries will account for 50% of all
world population growth through 2050

Bangladesh

Uganda

Sources:
Seven revolutions. http://7revs.csis.org/pdf/population.pdf
Global Trends 2025. http://www.scribd.com/doc/8233948/Global-Trends-2025-FINAL
World population in 2020

Source: http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_s2.html
 #2
Changes in average
number of years
people live
Where humanity is winning and losing

Source: 2008 State of the Future.

http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/SOF2008-English.pdf
 #3
Changes in
age distribution
Source: http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/Pensions.pdf
Source: http://bcg.de/images/uploads/attachments/The_Next_Bil9823.pdf
Source:
http://www.swissre.com/pws/research%20publications/sigma%20ins.%20research/facts%20and%20figures/age_distr_world_42008.html
Africa is one of the youngest markets in the world,
with more than half its population under 24.

Whereas Europe’s population is expected to

decline by 60 million people by 2050, Africa will
add 900 million people.

Sources:
Mahajan, Vijay: Africa Rising, p. 38. The Population Reference Bureau.
 #4
Changes in
household size
 #5
Changes in
average
retirement age
Retirement age and life expectancy

Source:
http://www.knowledgeconcierge.com/WEFPublic/PDFs/Davos2008/Briefing_CZ_EN.pdf
 #6
Changes in number
of people who
emigrate
 #7
Changes in number
of people who
immigrate
 #8
Changes in
percentage of
population who
live in cities
Source: http://www.theplaceswelive.com/
Urban and rural population of the world

Source
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005WUPHighlights_Final_Report.pdf
Source
http://www.knowledgeconcierge.com/WEFPublic/PDFs/Davos2008/Briefing_CX_EN.pdf
Source
http://www.knowledgeconcierge.com/WEFPublic/PDFs/Davos2008/Briefing_CX_EN.pdf
 #9
Changes in
income distribution
 Income differences per person
1775 1820 1870 1913

Western Europe 100 100 100 100

Southern Europe 75 62 53 47

Eastern Europe 70 58 49 42

Latin America 75 55 38 41

Asia 56 43 28 20

Africa 46 35 23 16

Source:
Jeffrey G. Williamson, "Globalization and the Great Divergence: terms of trade booms, volatiity and the
poor periphery, 1782-1913“. European Review of Economic History, 12, 355-391, 359.
 # 10
Changes in
values that are
important for people
Welche Werte und Bereiche im Leben
sind Ihnen wichtig?

Source
Beobachter nr. 1, 2010.
Survey by Monso. n = 1000 in Switzerland
http://www.beobachter.ch/leben-gesundheit/artikel/umfrage_werte/
 # 11
Changes in
percentage of
population who are
overweight
 2/3 of all grown up Americans are overweight.

Source:
Amerikas wunderlichste Ideen im Kampf gegen die Fettleibigkeit.
NZZ am Sonntag, 2. April 2006.
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/jcanton/future-of-health-care-presentation
Jamie Oliver: Teach every child about food

Source: http://www.ted.com/talks/jamie_oliver.html
 # 12
Changes in
how people eat
 We see a trend towards more home cooking.

Source:
Interview with Mr. Peter Brabeck.
http://www.ft.com/cms/8a38c684-2a26-11dc-9208-000b5df10621.html
 # 13
Changes in how much
and how people
educate themselves
Source:
https://entry4.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/p/d/de/publikationen/media/pdf/Global_Investor_en.pdf
Information
technology
 # 14
Changes in how
people transport
themselves
Vehicle ownership per 1000 people

Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/ar4-wg3/jpg/fig-5-2.jpg
Technological
changes
 #1
Technological
breakthroughs
 Decentralization

Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/12686310/Ulf-Pillkahn-Using-Trends-and-Scenarios-as-Tools-for-Strategy-Development
 #2
Changes in
information and
communication
technology
Productivity

Source
http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Business_Technology/Application_Management/Six_ways_to_make_Web_20_work_2294
Broadband subscriptions in millions

Source: http://www.acma.gov.au/webwr/_assets/main/lib310662/21emergingbusinesstrends.pdf
Internet penetration rates worldwide

Source: www.internetworldstats.com
 The mobile device will be the primary
connection tool to the Internet for most
people in the world in 2020.

Source: http://pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_FutureInternet3.pdf
Media convergence

Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/12686310/Ulf-Pillkahn-Using-Trends-and-Scenarios-as-Tools-for-Strategy-Development
Environmental
changes
 #1
Changes in
temperature
Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif