Professional Documents
Culture Documents
IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY
EXPLORING THE FUTURE OF SOFTWARE
TECHNOLOGY IN TURKEY
m u ltip le
m u ta b le d es ig n , R&D E c o n o m ic al
u n d e rs ta n d in g , d y n a m ics
fo rm u la tio n in n o va tio n
m a n a g em e n t, of ca tch in g -u p
c h an g e im p le m en ta tio n p e rfo rm an ce
im p le m en ta tio n
T ru e E ffe c tive
S u cc es s fu l
e ffe c tiv e re lia b le su c ce s sfu l in n o vatio n e co n o m ic
s c ien tific b as ed u p d ate d p ro -a ctiv e c ap a b ility g ro w th
tailo re d v alid
F u tu re S tu d ie s S cien c e & In tern atio n a l
In p u ts T ec h n o lo g y tec h n o lo g ic a l in d u strial
T ec h n o lo g y ad va n ce co m p e titiven e ss
F o res ig h t SW OT P o licies
Cause/effect, diagrams,
Scenario Plans
SCENARIOS
Evolution of Software Technology
requires causes Broadband internet Material science /Technology:
Wireless networks ceramics for networks and optic
Mobile technologies cables, Polymers, silicon
Artificial intelligence germanium on batteries, silicon
Developer SOFTWARE Processors for processors
communities Innovations EVOLUTION Computing technologies
Biotechnologies
Global firms Data Storage
Academy Input/Output Devices Nano Technologies
Video conference Power devices / power storage
Electronics
Increasing, higher, complicated
Interaction between technologies
User requirements
Open
Advanced Cooperation between technological disciplines
source
technical skills
Structural methods/CMMI code
Agile methods Advanced Multidisciplinary competencies
Extreme programming methodological High level
Personal Software Process skills expertise
New definition of software=
AI, Bayesian techniques, Multidisciplinary Engineering
Simulation,
CASE (Computer Assisted SW Automated Differentiation of Rulers /Workers
Engineering), Software
Constraints programming, High level /Low level developers
Component-based software
development
development
Too smart and New specific HR/ management/ Cooperation of IT
Mathematical/logical organization/motivation/project academy and
hardworking, too
cababilities
Intellectual quality free, independent management techniques business schools
Creativity natured people
Mobility of Human Resources
1. Increasing mobility of human resources between firms and countries will cause quality
problems, loss of jobs in developed countries, weaken the local technological competencies of
developing countries. SW companies will be more institutionalized to keep the continuity of their
competitiveness by using knowledge management systems, standart methodologies to transform
software development from “artcraft” to corporational procedures. (2010)
2. Home offices, virtual offices and freelance working will change the family structures and bring
cultural changes. (2010-2015)
Artificial Intelligence
There will be digital intelligence in every device and electronics. Refrigerators, owens, washing machines,
cars, doors, heating/cooling mechanisms, even heart batteries will be communicating with their users,
producers, environment, social service centres, supermarkets etc. Electronics and Computers will be
physical and will be ble to read mimics and gestures of humans. Language translation programmes will
remove most of cultural borders and reshape intellectual life. Forecasting, listening and analyzing disasters
and natural events will improve the quality of life. (2015-2020)
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
Bayesian techniques High processor needs,Need for 64 bit operating systems
Neural Networks Cooperation/mergers of electronic firms with IT/software firms
Voice, pattern, speech recognition systems (in daily life in 2010) Speech recognition and speech-to-writing mechanisms not
Fingertip and iris recognition (in daily life in 2007) available till the perfect recording of voice is provided.
Great opportunities of Multimodel biometric applications (2008) Natural Language Processing (limited developments in 3 years)
Need for definition of Multimodel biometrics Standarts
New ways of Computing
Quantum computing:
not in practical use before 2020
Requires a specific programming language
can be used in national defence and military
Grid Computing:
enables to connect and unite distributed computer resources and use the common power for higher performance needs.
Appropriate databases will be improved.
enable LDC’s improve their national IT infrastructure and meet high computing performance needs with low costs.
Enable industry share resources.
Security needs will be met till 2010.
Super Computing:
requires an expensive infrastructure and advanced scientific knowledge and know-how,
enables advanced applications like earth simulation.
Can be used in forecasting natural events and disasters, in material science replacing the real testing environment., in
automative industry for safety tests
Utility computing (On-demand):
Not in practical use before 2015
enables to carry resources dynamically between platforms,
couples these resources for meeting high computing requirements.
Parallel processing: will not be widely used till 2008.
Mobile world
Mobile world will enable humans and companies to connect to networked computers and whole digital
environment anywhere, anytime through mobile internet , innovative mobile softwares, consolidated mobile
devices communicating with each other, that can be also used as payment cards, digital keys, ıd cards by
embedded chips. This will change the way of living and increase quality of life. (2010)
Mobile operators will focus on corporate services. Mobile service costs will replace constant usage costs.
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
Nr. of mobile users =2 billions- 2007,Nr. Of cellular phones>PC+TV (2006) Ergonomy in mobile devices- light batteries and fans
Mobile subscription rate = %25 - world , %105- Europe 2006 Security problems
20trillion bit data download/day,%50 subscribers use data services in 2006 Battery problem ( will be solved in 2008)
Mobile PC’s=Desktop (2008) Difficulties in dynamic IP
Development in mobile devices market (8 billions USD in 2008) Transforming existing applications to mobile applications
Mobile communication protocols like Bluetooth, Jini, Chai
3G (in daily life in 2008), 4G and II.5 g (2010-2015)
Ubiguitous Computing (in daily life in 2009)
Mergers of electronic producers and software providers
Pervasive computing and Post PC devices
System Security
Software itself will not be able to meet increasing system security requirements completely. Security
softwares will be supported by hardware solutions. Complete solutions including antivirus, attack recognition,
firewall will be produced. There will be more customer/service provider relations in security software market.
e-Learning
Education systems will be powered by virtual classrooms and distributed learning. Educational content will be
managed and improved by content management systems and will be available in internet. By this way,
educational knowledge management will improve the intellectual accumulation.
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
Content management, portal structures Reengineering need for processes of education
My Doctor Beside me
Medical archives, databases on medical techniques, information sharing platforms, doctor communities will
be avaliable from all around the world. Online medical conferences, seminars, even surgeries will empower
the expertise of doctors and will decrease learning costs by removing the need to travel .
Health and medical services like recognition, testing, imaging will be available online. Online ambulance traffic
management, connecting to doctor real time, medicine order, urgent hospital reservation etc. will increase the
productivity and speed of medical services. Patients and their medical indicators and datas will be monitored
everywhere, everytime by medical institutions.
Intelligent devices will be in communication with medical institutions and will inform them urgently when a life
threatening condition develops.
There will be no need for real human body in medical training and in medical R&D. Detailed imaging required
for recognition will be possible without surgery.
CHALLENGES
National health IT standarts
Limitation on the privacy of individuals
Digital Playground
Online Computer games will be more than downloadable games. In games new virtual worlds individuals will
have various characters. Spending more time in virtual games will threaten the social relations of individuals
and families. Games and movies will and interactive movies will be popular. In time virtual actors will replace
real actors and especially stunts will lose their jobs. Games will be used in psychological tests , sometimes
without the permission of players and this will cause ethical discussions.
Global software firms will try to be more effective in computer game industry but will fail because game
software development requires high visual creativity expertise.
Game softwares will also be used in education.
DRIVING FORCES: CHALLENGES: People’s emotional ties and needs of
Growing computer games market (7 billion USD in 2006) admiring to movie stars
E-Business
E-business will double productivity/efficiency per hour within 25 years. US consumers will spend 133 billion
USD to e-trade. Online shopping will be doubled in 5 years. LDC’s will face the threat of loosing their existing
business volume and staying out of the global economy if they cannot carry their industries to web based
work processes of B2B and B2C. Bargaining sites and second hand virtual markets will transform shopping
attitudes and threaten electronic, consumer goods industries. Increase in B2B portal sites of SMSC’s will
improve producers’ unions. By the development of e-trade, global firms will close their sales branches abroad
and this will cause loss of jobs and foreign investment in LDC’s.
DRIVING FORCES CHALLENGES
New generations grown up with internet Reengineering need for processes
Content management, portals (market=3.1 billion USD in 2006) Workers’ Unions resisting automation substitution
Security problem with electronic payment systems
CHALLENGES
DRIVING FORCES
Global Firms monopoly (%50 market share). Microsoft aims
Mature market (total global market 5.7 billions USD 2008)
to be dominant by 2010.
Country of origin effect
Reengineering need for processes
Brother
Cyber Big
beside me
My doctor
E-government
E-learning
E-business
the net
On the road, on
CRM
SCM
Retailing and
ERP’S
software
Security
Databases
playground
Digital
TOTAL
( DF=1 , C=-1 )
Networked and
Mobilie human
Mobile humAn
Downloadable
Open source,
Mobile world
SCENARIOS
resources 1
resources 2
Intelligence
open world
Computing
Artificial
World
Utility
SOFTWARE
TECHNOLOGIES
Grid Computing DF DF DF DF DF 5
Broadband DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF 17
Distributed software C DF DF DF DF 4,-1
developments
Mobile technologies DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF 14
Open source DF DF DF DF DF DF DF/C C DF 8,-2
Processors DF DF C C C C C C C C C DF C 10,-3
Artificial Intelligence DF DF DF DF DF/C DF DF DF DF DF DF 11,-3
System Security DF C C C C C C C C C C C DF C 12,-2
Digital animation DF DF DF DF DF 5
Quantum computing DF DF 2
Virtual reality DF DF DF DF 4
Embedded softwares DF DF DF DF DF DF 6
e-learning DF DF DF 3
Video conference DF DF DF DF 4
Neural networks DF DF 2
Simulation DF DF DF Df 4
Holographic imaging DF DF DF 3
Multimedia DF DF DF DF 4
Data,voice image int. DF DF DF 3
RFID, NFC DF DF DF DF 4
VoIP Df 1
Datamining/warehouse DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF DF 8
SWOT
STRENGTHS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON
FOR TURKEY
THREATS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON
Cheap work-force Digital divide
SPECIFIC STRENGTHS OF TURKEY Economic instability of Country
Young population Global firms
Entrepreneurship courage of local firms Difficulties in outsourcing and export due to lack of
High rate of cellular phone usage software standarts
Powerfull local GSM Operators Brain drain
National IT general assembly Increase in imports due to lack local hardware and
Positive business climate with Turki republics
mobile device industry,
Loss of jobs by automation
OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON
SPECIFIC THREATS FOR TURKEY
Open source code and community
Political lobbies of global firms in government
Grid computing
Global firms trying to buy local GSM Operators
Developer communities
Incontinuity of S&T policies and programmes due to
Benchmarking with other countries
Political instability
Smart translation softwares
Restrictions on R&D and innovation funds and
SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR TURKEY incentives due to strict national saving programmes
Technoparks and technocities imposed by IMF
EU candidate membership process Political intervention and staff assignments of
Efforts of Linux Community on national open source operating government to national Science and Technology
system (ULUDAG Project) Institution (TUBITAK)
Opposite brain drain Resistance to methodologic work as a part of
“Turquality” project
national culture – Turkish way of working
SW quality studies of national quality organizations and academy
Effective and innovative local electronics producers
SWOT FOR TURKEY
WEAKNESSES OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN COMMON SPECIFIC WEAKNESSES OF TURKEY
• Follower of technology, incompetent on technology • Dependency of academy to governmental bodies-YOK,
adaptation and innovation in national level • Insufficient regulations and legal frame for Telecom
• Low PC/internet penetration industry, failure in privatization of Telecom
• Insufficient IT infrastructure and broadband connection • Alphabetical differences
• No leadership of government
• Too many sectoral NGO’s, no synergy
• Ineffective bureaucracy and regulations
• High piracy rate (%58)
• Insufficient human resources
• Limited financial resources due to low national income
• Foreign language incompetency
• Ineffective and inapplicable national S&T policies • “Parrot fashioned” basic education without IT tools
• Lack of future research on critical technologies • No mature professional organization on software
• In effective academic and educational policies • Incompetencein methodological work, project management,
• Weak links between educational/academic policies and quality planning and management, testing and control:
national S&T programmes and ,industrial needs “Turkish way of working”
• No competency of academy and industry for following • Insufficient consultancy
critical technological trends • Immature local developer communities
• No multidisciplinary framework • Limited participation in global developer communities
• Immature local market, lack of large scale local firms • Unconscious users with unrealistic expectations
• No competency in interacting technologies
• No local hardware/mobile device producer firms
• Weak country brand
• Lack of competency in marketing and brand creation
• No national software standards, no national plan to design
• Insufficient management, organization, human resources
management abilities
SWOT FOR TURKEY ON SOFTWARE TYPES
Software type Existing Production Future Potential
in Turkey opportunity of Turkey
National security and defence High High High
Health/medical Low High Medium
Logistics/transportation/tourism Low High Low