Quarter Actual Data Moving Average Central Moving Average Seasonality=Actual/Central

1 842
2 939
3 1236 973 981.125 1.25977831570901
4 875 989.25 999 0.875875875875876
5 907 1008.75 1020.625 0.888671157379057
6 1017 1032.5 1041.625 0.976359054362174
7 1331 1050.75 1056.5 1.25982016090866
8 948 1062.25 1073 0.883504193849021
9 953 1083.75 1093.125 0.871812464265294
10 1103 1102.5 1110.875 0.992910993586137
11 1406 1119.25 1131 1.24314765694076
12 1015 1142.75 1152.375 0.88078967350038
13 1047 1162 1174.375 0.891538052155402
14 1180 1186.75 1194.625 0.987757664539081
15 1505 1202.5 1212.125 1.241621119934
16 1078 1221.75 1232.625 0.874556333029105
17 1124 1243.5 1252.375 0.897494759956083
18 1267 1261.25 1272.125 0.995971307851037
19 1576 1283 1288.375 1.22324633744057
20 1165 1293.75 1302.875 0.894176340784803
21 1167 1312 1323.75 0.881586402266289
22 1340 1335.5 1343.625 0.997302074611592
23 1670 1351.75 1362.75 1.22546321775821
24 1230 1373.75 1381.625 0.890256039084411
25 1255 1389.5 1401.5 0.895469140206921
26 1403 1413.5 1422.5 0.986291739894552
27 1766 1431.5 1438.5 1.22766770941953
28 1302 1445.5 1457 0.893617021276596
29 1311 1468.5 1477.375 0.887384719519418
30 1495 1486.25 1496 0.999331550802139
31 1837 1505.75 1515.625 1.2120412371134
32 1380 1525.5 1534.25 0.899462277985987
33 1390 1543 1555.875 0.893387964971479
34 1565 1568.75 1579.375 0.990898298377523
35 1940 1590 1598.125 1.21392256550645
36 1465 1606.25 1616.75 0.90613885882171
37 1455 1627.25 1638 0.888278388278388
38 1649 1648.75 1654.5 0.996675732849804
39 2026 1660.25 1670.375 1.21290129461947
40 1511 1680.5 1688.625 0.894810866829521
41 1536 1696.75 1706.375 0.900153834883891
42 1714 1716 1727.25 0.99232884643219
43 2103 1738.5 1772.25 1.18662716885315
44 1601 1806 1806 0.886489479512735
45
46
47
48

Actual Data

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6 Column E

0.4

0.2

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40

Cyclicality * Randomness

1.04

1.03
1.02

1.01

0.99 Column J
0.98

0.97

0.96

0.95
 1

0.99 Column J
0.98

0.97

0.96
0.95
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43
Seasonalised Data Deseasonalised Data Trend Data Seasonalised Trended Data C*R

0.889578 946.516213305635 940.4273 836.5834366794 1.006475

0.991583 946.970651977696 959.7322 951.6541340726 0.986703
1.22784 1006.64581704457 979.0371 1202.100912864 1.0282
0.889062 984.183330296425 998.342 887.587935204 0.985818
0.889578 1019.58456706438 1017.6469 905.2762940082 1.001904
0.991583 1025.63275086402 1036.9518 1028.2237766994 0.989084
1.22784 1084.01746155851 1056.2567 1296.914226528 1.026282
0.889062 1066.29233956687 1075.5616 956.2409472192 0.991382
0.889578 1071.29447895519 1094.8665 973.969151337 0.97847
0.991583 1112.36275732843 1114.1714 1104.7934193262 0.998377
1.22784 1145.10033880636 1133.4763 1391.727540192 1.010255
0.889062 1141.65266314385 1152.7812 1024.8939592344 0.990346
0.889578 1176.96255977553 1172.0861 1042.6620086658 1.00416
0.991583 1190.0163677675 1191.391 1181.363061953 0.998846
1.22784 1225.72973677352 1210.6959 1486.540853856 1.012418
0.889062 1212.5138629252 1230.0008 1093.5469712496 0.985783
0.889578 1263.52045576667 1249.3057 1111.3548659946 1.011378
0.991583 1277.75486267917 1268.6106 1257.9327045798 1.007208
1.22784 1283.55486056815 1287.9155 1581.35416752 0.996614
0.889062 1310.36980548038 1307.2204 1162.1999832648 1.002409
0.889578 1311.85798209938 1326.5253 1180.0477233234 0.988943
0.991583 1351.37451932919 1345.8302 1334.5023472066 1.00412
1.22784 1360.11206671879 1365.1351 1676.167481184 0.99632
0.889062 1383.48056715955 1384.44 1230.85299528 0.999307
0.889578 1410.78129180353 1403.7449 1248.7405806522 1.005013
0.991583 1414.90929150661 1423.0498 1411.0719898334 0.99428
1.22784 1438.29814959604 1442.3547 1770.980794848 0.997188
0.889062 1464.46479548108 1461.6596 1299.5060072952 1.001919
0.889578 1473.73248888799 1480.9645 1317.433437981 0.995117
0.991583 1507.69022865459 1500.2694 1487.6416324602 1.004946
1.22784 1496.12327339067 1519.5743 1865.794108512 0.984567
0.889062 1552.19770949608 1538.8792 1368.1590193104 1.008655
0.889578 1562.53864191785 1558.1841 1386.1262953098 1.002795
0.991583 1578.28441996283 1577.489 1564.211275087 1.000504
1.22784 1580.01042481105 1596.7939 1960.607422176 0.989489
0.889062 1647.80409015344 1616.0988 1436.8120313256 1.019618
0.889578 1635.6069956766 1635.4037 1454.8191526386 1.000124
0.991583 1662.99744953272 1654.7086 1640.7809177138 1.005009
1.22784 1650.05212405525 1674.0135 2055.42073584 0.985686
0.889062 1699.54401380331 1693.3184 1505.4650433408 1.003677
0.889578 1726.6614057452 1712.6233 1523.5120099674 1.008197
0.991583 1728.54919860466 1731.9282 1717.3505603406 0.998049
1.22784 1712.76387802971 1751.2331 2150.234049504 0.978033
0.889062 1800.77429920523 1770.538 1574.118055356 1.017077
0.889578 1789.8429 1592.2048672962 0
0.991583 1809.1478 1793.9202029674 0
1.22784 1828.4527 2245.047363168 0
0.889062 1847.7576 1642.7710673712 0

Seasonalised Data

2500

2000

1500

1000 Column B

500

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43

Deseasonalised Data y = mt + c ; where y = deseasonalised data

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800 Column G

600
400
200
0
1200
1000
800 Column G

600
400
200
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43
y=mt+c

where, y=deseasonalised data

QUATERLY SEASONAL AVERAGE

QUATER1 QUATER2 QUARTER3

1994 1.2597783157
1995 0.8886711574 0.9763590544 1.2598201609
1996 0.8718124643 0.9929109936 1.2431476569
1997 0.8915380522 0.9877576645 1.2416211199
1998 0.89749476 0.9959713079 1.2232463374
1999 0.8815864023 0.9973020746 1.2254632178
2000 0.8954691402 0.9862917399 1.2276677094
2001 0.8873847195 0.9993315508 1.2120412371
2002 0.893387965 0.9908982984 1.2139225655
2003 0.8882783883 0.9966757328 1.2129012946
2004 0.9001538349 0.9923288464 1.1866271689
Average Seasonal Fluctuation 0.8895776884 0.9915827263 1.2278397077
 QUARTER4
0.8758758759
0.8835041938
0.8807896735
0.874556333
0.8941763408
0.8902560391
0.8936170213
0.899462278
0.9061388588
0.8948108668
0.8864894795
0.8890615419
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9981748244
R Square 0.99635298
Adjusted R Square 0.9962661462
Standard Error 15.180380313
Observations 44

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 2644171.809049 2644171.809 11474.251547 7.7479881E-53
Residual 42 9678.64575123 230.44394646
Total 43 2653850.4548

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 921.12242496 4.656204939024 197.8268648 5.277451E-64 911.72582308
X Variable 1 19.304947969 0.180221438632 107.11793289 7.747988E-53 18.9412463853
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
930.51902684 911.72582308 930.51902684
19.668649552 18.941246385 19.668649552