Ashwin Dilip Vidhate

Knowledge Management Group

ashwin.vidhate@ncdex.com
+91 22 66406828
Kharif crop progress
October 08, 2010

The kharif crops are sown and harvested during the monsoon season which runs from June to September and is critical for overall food production for the entire year.
This report tracks the area under cultivation for different kharif crops across the region and gives a fair estimate of production for the year 2010.
Assumptions:
Year 2008 is considered as benchmark as it is the closest year when the rainfall was normal; against 2009 which was a drought year.
The production estimate for 2010 is based on the yield seen in year 2008.
The area sown is as on October 01, 2010 taken from Ministry of Agriculture.

Table 1: Country view kharif crop (2010)

Area sown (lakh hectares) Production (million tons)
Crop Normal Net area % Net area Net area % change 2010 Range# 2010* 2009* 2008* % change
Name Area (01- sown (01- achieved sown (01- sown (01- compared compared
10-10) 10-10) of normal 10-09) 10-08) to 2008 to 2008
Cereals 617.33 563.33 91.3 536.46 579.18 -2.7 99.83 - 108.15 103.99 99.03 106.92 -2.74
Pulses 107.94 113.88 105.5 94.62 104.18 9.3 5.96 - 6.72 6.34 5.27 5.80 9.31
Oilseeds 175.72 174.68 99.4 173.85 181.9 -4.0 18.55 - 21.77 20.16 20.06 20.99 -3.97
Cotton^ 90.86 107.55 118.4 98.79 90.83 18.4 280.67 - 310.22 295.45 271.38 4.24 18.41
Jute^ 7.85 7.59 96.7 6.92 7.37 3.0 91.48 - 99.11 95.30 86.88 1.67 2.99
Sugarcane 44.97 50.6 112.5 42.02 44.15 14.6 338.06 - 358.97 348.52 289.42 304.09 14.61
All India@ 1044.67 1017.63 97.4 952.66 1007.61 1.0 468.82 - 502.68 485.75 419.96 443.71 9.47
*- The production estimates for 2008, 2009 & 2010 is based on the yield level seen in 2008. ^-Cotton & Jute production figures in Lakh bales.
#-The production estimate for 2010 rangeis based on the change in historical yield level benchmarked on 2008 yield. @- All indianProduction miilion tons.
Summary

The area under kharif crop as on 01st October, 2010 has shown further rise compared to what we had seen last time. It has gone up by 64.97 lakh hectare (i.e. 6.8%)
and is reported at 1017.63 lakh hectare compared to 952.66 lakh hectare seen same time last year.

We have raised our overall estimate of kharif production for this year by 4.4% and it stand at 485.75 million tons based on the revised area sown details as on 01st
October, 2010, against 465.47 million tons seen in the last estimate. We expect kharif crop production to be in the range of 468.82 to 502.68 million tons which is
much higher compared to 2009 or 2008 production figures, indicating a bumper production.

Based on the area sown until 01st October, 2010, the production estimates for cereals and pulses is expected to come down by 2.7% and 3.9% respectively compared to
2008.On the other hand, cotton, sugarcane, pulses and jute are expected to show a rise of 18.4%, 14.6%, 9.3% and 2.9% respectively compared to 2008.

Oilseeds has shown further improvement, and as on 01st October, 2010 it has achieved 99.4% of normal area against 97.5% seen on 10th September, 2010.The lower
oilseeds production compared to 2008 is largely because of sunflower and groundnut whose estimated production has gone down by 59% & 6% respectively. The
area covered under sunflower continues to be a meagre 33.6%.
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The estimated lower cereal production for this year compared to 2008 is because of lesser production estimates for rice and bajra as area sown until 01st
October, 2010 is 88.9% and 94.4% respectively of normal area. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand are the major contributors towards paddy
production have achieved only 76%, 23%, and 47% respectively of normal area sown.

State level view Kharif crop (2010)

Assumptions:
The area sown for 2010 is as on September 10, 2010 whereas for 2008 it is the final area under cultivation taken from Ministry of Agriculture.
The state wise ranking of kharif crops are based on the 2008 production statistics.
The production estimate for 2010 is based on the yield seen in year 2008.

Table 2: State wise kharif crop - Oilseeds (2010)

Area sown (lakh hectares) Production (million tons)
Normal Net area % Net area % change % change
Oilseeds Area (01- sown (01- achieved sown area 2010 range# 2010* 2009^ 2008^ compared
10-10) 10-10) of normal (2008)@ sown to 2008
Soybean
Madhya Pradesh 47.29 53.9 114.0 51.42 4.8 5.29 - 6.20 5.74 NA 5.48 4.82
Maharashtra 25.39 26 102.4 30.68 -15.3 3.10 - 3.64 3.37 1.84 3.98 -15.25
Rajasthan 7.27 7.65 105.2 8.52 -10.2 0.88 - 1.04 0.96 NA 1.07 -10.21
Andhra Pradesh 1.02 1.41 138.2 1.49 -5.4 0.15 - 0.18 0.16 0.19 0.17 -5.37
Karnataka 1.34 1.81 135.1 2 -9.5 0.08 - 0.09 0.09 NA 0.10 -9.50
Others 1.69 2.57 152.1 2.31 11.3 0.27 - 0.31 0.29 NA 0.17 70.21
India 84.00 93.34 111.1 96.42 -3.2 9.77 - 11.47 10.62 9.91 10.97 -3.19
Groundnuts
Gujarat 17.89 16.73 93.5 17.91 -6.6 2.74 - 3.22 2.98 2.46 3.19 -6.59
Andhra Pradesh 14.65 13.44 91.7 14.55 -7.6 1.68 - 1.97 1.82 0.45 1.97 -7.63
Karnataka 7.46 6.57 88.1 6.4 2.7 0.47 - 0.56 0.52 NA 0.50 2.66
Tamil Nadu 3.67 2.58 70.3 3.66 -29.5 0.34 - 0.39 0.37 NA 0.52 -29.51
Rajasthan 3.01 3.33 110.6 3.29 1.2 0.53 - 0.62 0.58 NA 0.57 1.22
Maharashtra 3.36 1.97 58.6 2.47 -20.2 0.20 - 0.24 0.22 0.36 0.27 -20.24
Madhya Pradesh 2.04 1.97 96.6 1.91 3.1 0.17 - 0.20 0.19 NA 0.18 3.14
Others 4.74 6.37 134.4 5.97 6.7 0.198-0.232 0.17 NA 0.16 6.70
India 53.81 49.63 92.2 52.87 -6.1 6.33 - 7.43 6.88 5.62 7.33 -6.13

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 Sunflower
Karnataka 5.62 1.72 30.6 4.44 -61.3 0.087 - 0.102 0.0941 NA 0.2429 -61.26
Andhra Pradesh 1.21 0.39 32.2 0.84 -53.6 0.023 - 0.026 0.0245 0.057 0.0528 -53.57
Maharashtra 1.09 0.57 52.3 1.13 -49.6 0.030 - 0.036 0.0331 NA 0.0655 -49.56
Others 1.32 0.63 47.7 1.45 -56.6 0.019 - 0.022 0.0203 NA 0.0468 -56.55
India 8.15 2.74 33.6 6.73 -59.3 0.153 - 0.180 0.1663 0.357 0.4085 -59.29
Sesame
West Bengal 0.04 0.02 50.0 2.03 -99.0 0.0017 - 0.0020 0.002 NA 0.186 -99.02
Gujarat 3.26 2.34 71.8 3.00 -22.0 0.101 - 0.119 0.110 NA 0.141 -22.00
Rajasthan 3.96 5.02 126.8 3.15 59.4 0.186 - 0.218 0.202 NA 0.127 59.42
Madhya Pradesh 1.84 2.36 128.3 0.93 154.1 0.082 - 0.097 0.089 NA 0.088 2.11
Karnataka 0.88 0.85 96.6 0.87 -2.3 0.043 - 0.051 0.047 NA 0.048 -2.25
Uttar Pradesh 1.95 2.11 108.2 2.53 -16.7 0.030 - 0.035 0.032 NA 0.039 -16.68
Maharashtra 1.02 0.5 49.0 2.31 -78.4 0.015 - 0.017 0.016 0.014 0.030 -46.17
Others 2.2 3.61 164.1 3.16 14.4 0.104 - 0.122 0.113 NA 0.099 14.39
India 15.15 16.81 111.0 17.98 -6.5 0.651 - 0.764 0.708 NA 0.757 -6.50
Castor
Gujarat 3.5 5.19 148.3 3.58 45.0 0.944 - 1.109 1.027 0.85 0.71 45.00
Rajasthan 1.05 1.26 120.0 1.10 14.8 0.168 - 0.197 0.183 NA 0.16 14.84
Andhra Pradesh 2.35 1.91 81.3 1.99 -4.1 0.114 - 0.134 0.124 0.08 0.13 -4.06
Karnataka 0.22 0.22 100.0 0.23 -4.3 0.014 - 0.017 0.015 NA 0.02 -4.30
Others 1.01 0.29 28.7 0.91 -68.0 0.011 - 0.013 0.012 NA 0.04 -68.04
India 8.13 8.87 109.1 7.80 13.7 1.098 - 1.288 1.193 1.17 1.05 13.65
*- The production estimates for 2010 is based on the yield level seen in 2008.
^- Actual production figures for 2008 & 2009 sourced from CMIE.
#-The prodcution estimate for 2010 rangeis based on the change in historical yield level benchmarked on 2008 yield.
@- For 2008 net area sown is the final figures.
NA- Production figures not yet disclosed.

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 Table 3: State wise kharif crop- Cereals (2010)
Area sown (lakh hectares) Production (million tons)
Normal Net area % Net area % change % change
Cereals Area (01- sown (01- achieved sown area 2010 Range# 2010* 2009^ 2008^ compared
10-10) 10-10) of normal (2008)@ sown to 2008
Rice
Uttar Pradesh 57.03 57.27 100.4 56.90 0.7 11.34 - 12.28 11.81 NA 11.73 0.66
Punjab 26.51 27.50 103.7 26.10 5.4 10.61 - 11.49 11.05 11.00 10.49 5.37
West Bengal 43.36 33.25 76.7 42.09 -21.0 7.43 - 8.05 7.74 NA 9.79 -21.00
Andhra Pradesh 25.53 26.63 104.3 25.78 3.3 8.12 - 8.80 8.46 8.38 8.19 3.29
Orissa 41.46 35.96 86.7 41.18 -12.7 5.64 - 6.11 5.87 NA 6.72 -12.67
Chhattisgarh 37.41 35.77 95.6 37.53 -4.7 4.97 - 5.38 5.17 NA 5.43 -4.69
Tamil Nadu 17.52 4.09 23.3 16.36 -75.0 1.08 - 1.17 1.12 NA 4.50 -75.01
Bihar 32.50 23.88 73.5 34.63 -31.0 2.81 - 3.04 2.93 NA 4.25 -31.05
Haryana 10.81 11.50 106.4 10.75 7.0 3.71 - 4.02 3.87 3.30 3.61 6.98
Jharkhand 15.10 7.14 47.3 16.43 -56.6 1.39 - 1.50 1.45 NA 3.33 -56.56
Maharashtra 14.98 15.47 103.3 15.35 0.8 2.82 - 3.05 2.94 NA 2.91 0.80
Karnataka 10.76 10.73 99.7 10.51 2.1 2.62 - 2.84 2.73 NA 2.68 2.09
Assam 20.34 22.48 110.5 20.01 12.4 2.79 - 3.02 2.91 NA 2.59 12.36
Madhya Pradesh 16.36 15.17 92.7 15.59 -2.7 1.37 - 1.48 1.42 NA 1.46 -2.66
Gujarat 6.94 7.76 111.8 7.26 6.9 1.41 - 1.53 1.47 1.23 1.38 6.87
Others 18.56 16.57 89.3 18.10 -8.4 3.17 - 3.44 3.30 NA 3.61 -8.43
India 395.17 351.17 88.9 394.56 -11.0 70.63 - 76.51 73.57 84.91 82.659 -11.00
Bajra
Rajasthan 49.31 50.85 103.1 48.785 4.2 4.061 - 4.400 4.231 NA 4.059 4.23
Uttar Pradesh 8.48 8.91 105.1 8.79 1.4 1.300 - 1.408 1.354 NA 1.336 1.37
Maharashtra 13.13 10.08 76.8 12.83 -21.4 0.850 - 0.920 0.885 0.66 1.126 -21.43
Haryana 6.04 5.7 94.4 6.3 -9.5 1.008 - 1.093 1.051 1.08 1.161 -9.52
Gujarat 7.17 4.81 67.1 9.21 -47.8 0.655 - 0.710 0.683 0.54 1.307 -47.77
Karnataka 3.91 3.04 77.7 4.32 -29.6 0.240 - 0.261 0.250 NA 0.356 -29.63
Madhya Pradesh 1.8 1.72 95.6 1.8 -4.4 0.231 - 0.251 0.241 NA 0.252 -4.44
Others 1.68 1.27 75.6 3.678 -65.5 0.160 - 0.173 0.167 NA 0.482 -65.47
India 91.52 86.38 94.4 95.713 -9.8 8.641 - 9.361 9.001 8.89 9.973 -9.75

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 Maize
Karnataka 8.88 11.50 129.5 10.15 13.3 3.194 - 3.460 3.33 NA 2.94 13.32
Andhra Pradesh 5.30 4.38 82.6 5.19 -15.6 1.734 - 1.879 1.81 1.57 2.14 -15.61
Rajasthan 10.35 10.88 105.1 10.51 3.5 1.943 - 2.105 2.02 NA 1.95 3.54
Maharashtra 4.68 6.86 146.6 5.71 20.1 1.782 - 1.931 1.86 NA 1.55 20.15
Uttar Pradesh 8.02 9.30 116.0 8.12 14.5 1.283 - 1.390 1.34 NA 1.17 14.52
Madhya Pradesh 8.68 8.81 101.5 8.80 0.1 1.089 - 1.180 1.13 NA 1.13 0.14
Himachal Pradesh 3.03 2.97 98.0 3.00 -1.1 0.819 - 0.887 0.85 NA 0.86 -1.08
Gujarat 4.64 4.31 92.9 4.24 1.7 0.569 - 0.616 0.59 0.60 0.58 1.65
Punjab 1.52 1.50 98.7 1.53 -2.0 0.490 - 0.531 0.51 0.51 0.52 -1.97
Jammu & Kashmir 3.17 2.03 64.0 3.02 -32.9 0.306 - 0.331 0.32 NA 0.47 -32.88
Tamil Nadu 1.40 0.63 45.0 1.53 -58.8 0.179 - 0.193 0.19 NA 0.45 -58.83
Others 8.98 12.67 141.1 2.90 337.6 5.618 - 6.086 5.85 NA 1.34 337.59
India 68.65 75.84 110.5 64.70 17.2 17.000 - 18.417 17.71 14.12 15.11 17.22
*- The production estimates for 2010 is based on the yield level seen in 2008.
^- Actual production figures for 2008 & 2009 sourced from CMIE.
#-The prodcution estimate for 2010 rangeis based on the change in historical yield level benchmarked on 2008 yield.
@- For 2008 net area sown is the final figures.
NA- Production figures not yet disclosed.

Table 4: State wise kharif crop- Pulses (2010)

Area sown (lakh hectares) Production (million tons)
Normal Net area % Net area % change % change
Pulses Area (01- sown (01- achieved sown area 2010 Range# 2010* 2009^ 2008^ compared
10-10) 10-10) of normal (2008)@ sown to 2008
Urad
Maharashtra 5.31 4.96 93.4 5.64 -12.1 0.264 - 0.298 0.28 NA 0.32 -12.12
Madhya Pradesh 5.03 6.35 126.2 4.66 36.3 0.210 - 0.236 0.22 NA 0.16 36.32
Uttar Pradesh 4.56 3.30 72.4 3.42 -3.4 0.136 - 0.154 0.14 NA 0.15 -3.42
Rajasthan 1.55 1.09 70.3 1.45 -24.7 0.054 - 0.061 0.06 NA 0.08 -24.72
Gujarat 0.99 1.05 106.1 1.04 1.0 0.067 - 0.076 0.07 0.06 0.07 1.01
Karnataka 1.28 1.18 92.2 1.52 -22.3 0.045 - 0.051 0.05 NA 0.06 -22.35
Jharkhand 0.81 0.00 0.0 0.97 -100.0 0.000 - 0.000 0.00 NA 0.06 -100.00
Others 5.08 6.13 120.7 5.65 8.5 0.220 - 0.249 0.23 NA 0.22 8.54
India 24.61 24.06 97.8 24.35 -1.2 1.040 - 1.173 1.11 0.84 1.12 -1.18
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 Moong
Rajasthan 8.40 7.45 88.7 10.60 -29.7 0.275 - 0.310 0.29 NA 0.42 -29.70
Maharashtra 6.25 6.10 97.6 6.61 -7.8 0.318 - 0.359 0.34 NA 0.37 -7.75
Andhra Pradesh 3.13 2.84 90.7 2.86 -0.6 0.131 - 0.148 0.14 0.09 0.14 -0.60
Gujarat 1.95 1.75 89.7 2.09 -16.2 0.090 - 0.101 0.10 0.07 0.11 -16.18
Karnataka 4.27 3.79 88.8 5.22 -27.4 0.074 - 0.083 0.08 NA 0.11 -27.36
Others 3.34 4.96 148.5 3.11 59.2 0.156 - 0.176 0.17 NA 0.10 59.24
India 27.34 26.89 98.4 30.49 -11.8 1.036 - 1.169 1.10 0.78 1.25 -11.80
Arhar
Maharashtra 11.06 13.64 123.3 10.09 35.2 1.182 - 1.333 1.2576 0.61 0.930 35.18
Karnataka 5.95 8.33 140.0 5.6 48.8 0.558 - 0.629 0.5931 NA 0.399 48.75
Uttar Pradesh 3.83 4.22 110.2 4.13 2.2 0.353 - 0.399 0.3760 NA 0.368 2.18
Andhra Pradesh 4.72 5.59 118.4 4.23 32.2 0.343 - 0.386 0.3645 NA 0.276 32.15
Gujarat 2.72 3.15 115.8 2.75 14.5 0.328 - 0.370 0.3493 0.26 0.305 14.55
Madhya Pradesh 3.23 4.97 153.9 3.55 40.0 0.313 - 0.353 0.3330 NA 0.238 40.00
Others 4.29 3.93 91.6 4.12 -4.6 0.329 - 0.370 0.3495 NA 0.332 5.40
India 35.8 43.83 122.4 34.47 27.2 3.403 - 3.838 3.6204 2.27 2.847 27.15
*- The production estimates for 2010 is based on the yield level seen in 2008.
^- Actual production figures for 2008 & 2009 sourced from CMIE.
#-The prodcution estimate for 2010 rangeis based on the change in historical yield level benchmarked on 2008 yield.
@- For 2008 net area sown is the final figures.
NA- Production figures not yet disclosed.

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 Table 5: State wise kharif crop- cotton (2010)
Area sown (lakh hectares) Production (Lakh bales)
Normal Net area % Net area % change % change
Cotton Area (01- sown (01- achieved sown area 2010 Range# 2010* 2009^ 2008^ compared
10-10) 10-10) of normal (2008)@ sown to 2008
Gujarat 23.4 26.11 111.6 24.26 7.6 84.627 - 93.535 89.08 70.13 82.76 7.64
Maharashtra 31.7 39.73 125.3 31.97 24.3 82.814 - 91.531 87.17 47.52 70.15 24.27
Andhra Pradesh 12 17.1 142.5 11.35 50.7 49.977 - 55.238 52.61 34.62 34.91 50.70
Punjab 5.7 5.3 93.0 6.04 -12.2 19.637 - 21.704 20.67 22.34 23.55 -12.23
Haryana 5.1 4.45 87.3 4.83 -7.8 16.512 - 18.250 17.38 18.58 18.85 -7.79
Rajasthan 3.9 2.9 74.4 3.69 -21.5 6.434 - 7.111 6.77 NA 8.62 -21.45
Madhya Pradesh 6.2 6.4 103.2 6.31 1.4 8.333 - 9.210 8.77 NA 8.65 1.43
Karnataka 4.1 4.1 100.0 4.03 1.7 7.515 - 8.306 7.91 NA 7.78 1.68
Tamil Nadu 1.1 0.49 44.5 0.99 -50.6 0.942 - 1.041 0.99 NA 2.01 -50.60
Others 0.74 0.97 131.1 0.76 28.0 1.902 - 2.102 2.00 NA 1.56 27.99
India 93.94 107.55 114.5 94.22 14.1 280.67 - 310.22 295.45 222.7 258.84 14.14
*- The production estimates for 2010 is based on the yield level seen in 2008.
^- Actual production figures for 2008 & 2009 sourced from CMIE.
#-The prodcution estimate for 2010 rangeis based on the change in historical yield level benchmarked on 2008 yield.
@- For 2008 net area sown is the final figures.
NA- Production figures not yet disclosed.

Table 6: State wise kharif crop- Jute (2010)

Area sown (lakh hectares) Production (Lakh bales)
Normal Net area % Net area % change
% change
Jute Area (01- sown (01- achieved sown 2010 Range# 2010* 2009^ 2008^ compared
area sown
10-10) 10-10) of normal (2008)@ to 2008
West Bengal 5.96 5.54 93.0 6.10 -9.2 71.651 - 77.622 74.64 NA 82.16 -9.16
Bihar 1.39 1.21 87.1 1.31 -7.6 11.100 - 12.025 11.56 NA 12.52 -7.61
Assam 0.61 0.65 106.6 0.60 8.3 6.829 - 7.398 7.11 NA 6.57 8.31
Others 0.12 0.19 158.3 0.13 44.4 1.328 - 1.438 1.46 NA 0.96 52.87
India 8.08 7.59 93.9 8.14 -6.8 91.48 - 99.11 95.30 NA 102.20 -6.76
*- The production estimates for 2010 is based on the yield level seen in 2008.
^- Actual production figures for 2008 & 2009 sourced from CMIE.
#-The prodcution estimate for 2010 rangeis based on the change in historical yield level benchmarked on 2008 yield.
@- For 2008 net area sown is the final figures.
NA- Production figures not yet disclosed.

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 Table 7: State wise kharif crop- sugarcane (2010)

Area sown (lakh hectares) Production (million tons)

Normal Net area % Net area % change % change
Sugarcane Area (01- sown (01- achieved sown area 2010 Range# 2010* 2009^ 2008^ compared
10-10) 10-10) of normal (2008)@ sown to 2008
Uttar Pradesh 20.80 21.91 105.3 21.79 0.6 121.6 - 129.1 125.35 109.05 124.67 0.55
Maharashtra 8.64 9.64 111.6 10.93 -11.8 75.7 - 80.3 78.00 50.81 88.44 -11.80
Tamil Nadu 3.25 3.25 100.0 3.54 -8.2 33.9 - 36.0 34.93 32.22 38.07 -8.24
Karnataka 2.87 4.36 151.9 3.06 42.5 36.3 - 38.5 37.39 23.16 26.24 42.48
Andhra Pradesh 2.00 1.80 90.0 2.47 -27.1 14.3 - 15.2 14.79 15.32 20.30 -27.13
Gujarat 2.07 1.88 90.8 2.11 -10.9 13.1 - 13.9 13.53 15.28 15.19 -10.90
Haryana 1.01 1.07 105.9 1.40 -23.6 6.6 - 7.0 6.77 5.66 8.86 -23.57
Uttarakhand 1.09 1.05 96.3 1.24 -15.3 6.3 - 6.7 6.51 5.53 7.69 -15.32
Bihar 1.17 3.03 259.0 1.09 179.0 10.4 - 11.1 10.76 4.78 3.85 179.00
Punjab 0.85 0.84 98.8 1.10 -23.6 5.0 - 5.3 5.11 4.67 6.69 -23.64
Madhya Pradesh 0.73 0.82 112.3 0.75 9.0 3.4 - 3.6 3.47 2.98 3.18 9.04
West Bengal 0.18 0.15 83.3 0.17 -11.2 1.1 - 1.2 1.13 1.41 1.27 -11.24
Others 0.80 0.80 100.0 0.90 -11.4 3.2 - 3.4 3.32 0.38 3.75 -11.41
India 45.46 50.60 111.3 50.55 0.1 338.1 - 359.0 348.52 271.25 348.19 0.09
*- The production estimates for 2010 is based on the yield level seen in 2008.
^- Actual production figures for 2008 & 2009 sourced from CMIE.
#-The prodcution estimate for 2010 rangeis based on the change in historical yield level benchmarked on 2008 yield.
@- For 2008 net area sown is the final figures.
NA- Production figures not yet disclosed.

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