Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Charlottesville, Virginia
2/24/2011
The following tables provide summary data for the Charlottesville, Virginia multifamily market. Detailed data
and other supporting information is found in the following pages. Feel free to contact Jeff Carroll (President,
Allen & Associates Consulting, Inc.) with any questions you may have regarding this information. He can be
reached at 704-905-2276 or jcarroll@allenadvisors.com.
Economic Outlook
Region State US
Nominal GDP Growth - - 4.5%
Real GDP Growth - - 3.2%
CPI Change - - 1.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield - - 2.65%
Industrial Capacity Utilization - - 74.80%
Unemployment 5.1% 6.4% 9.2%
Civilian Job Growth 2.3% 1.5% 1.0%
Establishment Job Growth (2000-10) 1.5% 0.9% 0.5%
Establishment Job Growth (2010-15) 1.4% 1.7% 1.4%
Manufacturing Job Growth (2000-10) -1.9% -3.6% -3.6%
Manufacturing Job Growth (2010-15) 1.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Demographic Outlook
Supply Analysis
Overview
Market areas are influenced by a variety of interrelated factors. These factors include site location, economic,
and demographic characteristics (tenure, income, rent levels, etc.), local transportation patterns, physical
boundaries (rivers, streams, topography, etc.), census geographies, and the location of comparable and/or
potentially competing communities.
In areas where the county seat is the largest city, centrally located, and draws from the entire county, the
county may be the market area. In the case where there are potentially competing communities in one county,
the market area may be part of the county. In fact, the market area could include portions of adjacent counties.
In this case, a combination of county subdivisions may be used to define the market area. In urban or suburban
areas, the market area will be adjacent to the site extending to all locations of similar character with residents
or potential residents likely to be interested in the project. In this case, county subdivisions, townships, or a
combination of census tracts may be used to define the market area.
Allen & Associates recently conducted a series of property management interviews to better understand market
areas and resident moving patterns for affordable multifamily properties. Our study suggested that markets
may be classified into the following general categories: urban, suburban and rural. Renters in urban markets
are typically willing to move 5 to 10 minutes when looking for a new apartment. Our research also shows that
renters in suburban markets are normally willing to move 10 to 15 minutes when looking for a new place to live.
Renters in rural markets are typically willing to move 15 to 20 minutes when looking for a new apartment. We
considered these general guidelines in our evaluation of the subject property.
Our study suggested that secondary market areas were generally a function of whether the proposed
development was family or elderly. Our research suggested that secondary market demand for family
properties ranged from 10 to 30 percent. Secondary market demand for elderly properties ranged from 10 to 50
percent. Although seniors move less frequently than younger renters, they are often willing to move longer
distances when looking for housing. We considered these general secondary market guidelines in our
evaluation of the subject property.
Our primary and secondary market area definitions are found below.
Based on our evaluation of the local market, we concluded that the primary market area includes the following
2000 Census Tracts:
The primary market area covers a total of 35.9 square miles and is 6.8 miles across on average.
Site
Site
In this section we conduct an analysis of the national, state and regional economy. Our analysis begins with a
general overview of the national economy.
The following table and graph show nominal gross domestic product for the nation since the 1990s. The data
set comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
Over the past 12 months nominal GDP increased from $14,115 billion to $14,750 billion, or 4.5 percent. Over
the past three years nominal GDP increased at an average annual rate of 4.1 percent.
The following table and graph show the real gross domestic product for the nation since the 1990s. The data
set comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
Over the past 12 months real GDP increased from $12,861 billion to $13,277 billion, or 3.2 percent. Over the
past three years real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent.
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
Over the past 12 months the money supply increased from $8,459 billion to $8,709 billion, or 3.0 percent. Over
the past three years the money supply increased at an average annual rate of 8.4 percent.
The following table and graph show money velocity for the nation since the 1990s. The time series is derived
using Federal Reserve and Bureau of Economic Analysis data:
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
Over the past 12 months the money velocity increased from 1.67 to 1.69, or 1.5 percent. Over the past seven
years the money velocity averaged 1.83.
In the immediate term, we anticipate that the money supply will grow 4.0 percent annually. We also anticipate
that money velocity will grow 2.0 percent per year, accompanied by real gross domestic product growth of 3.0
percent. This results in an estimated annual inflation rate of 3.0 percent.
Many economists maintain that inflationary pressures will begin to take place once the national unemployment
rate falls below 6.0 percent and industrial capacity utilization rises above 80 percent. These figures currently
stand at 9.2 percent and 75 percent, respectively.
During the expected recovery, we anticipate that the money supply will grow 10.0 percent annually. We also
anticipate that money velocity will grow 6.0 percent per year, accompanied by real gross domestic product
growth of 4.0 percent. This results in an estimated annual inflation rate of 12.0 percent.
After the economy has recovered, we anticipate that the money supply will grow 10.0 percent annually. We
also anticipate that money velocity will grow 0.0 percent per year, accompanied by real gross domestic product
growth of 4.0 percent. This results in an estimated annual inflation rate of 6.0 percent.
Sep-09 216.0
Sep-10 218.4 1.1%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Over the past 12 months the consumer price index increased from 216.0 to 218.4, or 1.1 percent. Over the
past three years the consumer price index increased at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent.
Sep-09 3.40%
Sep-10 2.65% -0.75%
Source: Federal Reserve
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Over the past 12 months the 10-year treasury rate decreased from 3.40 to 2.65 percent, or 0.75 percent.
Sep-09 70.5%
Sep-10 74.8% 4.3%
Source: Federal Reserve
90.0%
80.0%
85.0%
70.0%
60.0%
80.0%
50.0%
75.0%
40.0%
30.0%
70.0%
20.0%
65.0%
10.0%
60.0%
0.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Over the past 12 months industrial capacity utilization increased from 71.0 to 75.0 percent, or 4.0 percent.
Region Map.pdf
Civilian Employment
Civilian Employment Job Growth
Year Nation State Region Nation State Region
1990 119,769,423 3,098,145 54,376 - - -
1991 118,720,733 3,148,851 53,812 -0.9% 1.6% -1.0%
1992 119,521,190 3,180,803 54,063 0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
1993 121,307,099 3,207,393 54,555 1.5% 0.8% 0.9%
1994 124,243,448 3,250,202 54,915 2.4% 1.3% 0.7%
1995 127,134,391 3,317,434 56,087 2.3% 2.1% 2.1%
1996 129,254,917 3,252,499 55,354 1.7% -2.0% -1.3%
1997 132,120,921 3,323,266 55,979 2.2% 2.2% 1.1%
1998 134,287,067 3,384,653 57,159 1.6% 1.8% 2.1%
1999 136,289,214 3,441,589 57,360 1.5% 1.7% 0.4%
2000 138,117,863 3,502,524 61,256 1.3% 1.8% 6.8%
2001 138,241,765 3,537,719 61,378 0.1% 1.0% 0.2%
2002 137,936,672 3,588,079 62,128 -0.2% 1.4% 1.2%
2003 138,386,941 3,647,095 62,590 0.3% 1.6% 0.7%
2004 139,988,841 3,715,272 64,092 1.2% 1.9% 2.4%
2005 142,328,021 3,783,813 65,553 1.7% 1.8% 2.3%
2006 145,081,526 3,881,258 68,817 1.9% 2.6% 5.0%
2007 146,505,034 3,943,262 71,300 1.0% 1.6% 3.6%
2008 146,198,116 3,968,410 71,930 -0.2% 0.6% 0.9%
2009 140,870,681 3,896,161 70,788 -3.6% -1.8% -1.6%
Job Growth
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Over the past 12 months civilian employment for the region has increased from 69,314 to 70,904 or 2.3
percent. This is compared with 1.5 and 1.0 percent job growth for the state and nation, respectively.
Unemployment
Unemployment Unemployment Rate
Year Nation State Region Nation State Region
1990 7,239,509 139,206 1,251 5.7% 4.3% 2.2%
1991 8,798,851 197,431 2,150 6.9% 5.9% 3.8%
1992 9,830,747 217,491 2,404 7.6% 6.4% 4.3%
1993 9,130,642 172,368 1,617 7.0% 5.1% 2.9%
1994 8,212,253 167,466 1,535 6.2% 4.9% 2.7%
1995 7,684,687 156,319 1,231 5.7% 4.5% 2.1%
1996 7,522,773 146,142 1,377 5.5% 4.3% 2.4%
1997 6,953,733 127,685 1,081 5.0% 3.7% 1.9%
1998 6,475,058 97,500 747 4.6% 2.8% 1.3%
1999 6,123,758 95,501 748 4.3% 2.7% 1.3%
2000 5,754,911 82,455 1,294 4.0% 2.3% 2.1%
2001 6,970,173 116,949 1,653 4.8% 3.2% 2.6%
2002 8,492,916 157,306 2,151 5.8% 4.2% 3.3%
2003 8,833,209 155,924 2,345 6.0% 4.1% 3.6%
2004 8,304,423 142,747 2,187 5.6% 3.7% 3.3%
2005 7,807,022 137,237 2,093 5.2% 3.5% 3.1%
2006 7,155,122 120,039 1,861 4.7% 3.0% 2.6%
2007 7,225,327 121,957 1,779 4.7% 3.0% 2.4%
2008 9,001,583 161,049 2,426 5.8% 3.9% 3.3%
2009 14,444,293 279,789 4,105 9.3% 6.7% 5.5%
Unemployment Rate
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Over the past 12 months the unemployment rate for the region decreased from 5.3 to 5.1 percent. This is
compared with 6.4 and 9.2 percent for the state and nation, respectively.
Establishment Employment
Nation State Region
1990 Employment 138,331,022 3,699,605 80,916
2000 Employment 165,370,978 4,373,566 99,993
1990-2000 Change 27,039,956 673,961 19,077
Annual Change, % 1.8% 1.7% 2.1%
Establishment-based employment for the region increased from 80,916 in 1990 to 115,970 in 2010.
Employment is forecasted to increase 1.4 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected
growth of 1.7 and 1.4 percent for the state and nation, respectively.
The table on the next page gives the distribution of establishment-based employment by industry for the nation,
state and region. Once again, the data set (which comes from Woods & Poole Economics), includes a forecast
through 2015.
Our analysis suggests that state & local government is the largest employment sector, accounting for 27,829
jobs, or 24.0 percent of regional employment. The regional state & local government sector is forecasted to
Our analysis also suggests that professional & technical services is the second largest employment sector,
accounting for 11,709 jobs, or 10.1 percent of regional employment. The regional professional & technical
services sector is forecasted to grow 2.6 percent annually.
Finally, our analysis suggests that health care & social assistance is the third largest employment sector,
accounting for 11,156 jobs, or 9.6 percent of regional employment. The regional health care & social
assistance sector is forecasted to grow 3.3 percent annually.
Please note: Economic forecasts rely heavily on historic data. One should take care in using these forecasts
because historic economic performance may not be a good indicator of current economic trends.
We do not anticipate significant job formation for the next 2 years. In our opinion, the recovery from the current
recession will be slow.
State
1990 1990-2000 2000 2000-2010 2010 2010-2015 2015 % of Total
Farm 63,110 -0.3% 61,192 -2.3% 48,563 0.3% 49,252 1.0%
Forestry, Fishing & Related Activities 12,401 0.7% 13,296 0.0% 13,353 1.3% 14,243 0.3%
Mining 17,247 -4.1% 11,318 2.0% 13,796 0.2% 13,933 0.3%
Utilities 14,889 -2.4% 11,688 1.2% 13,206 0.4% 13,449 0.3%
Construction 203,642 3.2% 279,840 -0.5% 266,953 2.3% 298,917 5.6%
Manufacturing 397,300 -0.9% 363,499 -3.6% 250,751 0.2% 253,053 5.2%
Wholesale Trade 122,305 0.1% 123,592 -0.2% 120,575 1.1% 127,163 2.5%
Retail Trade 421,286 1.4% 482,460 0.0% 481,844 1.3% 512,811 10.0%
Transportation & Warehousing 106,258 2.6% 137,265 -0.3% 133,550 1.2% 141,776 2.8%
Information 84,927 4.2% 127,782 -3.3% 91,306 0.6% 93,969 1.9%
Finance & Insurance 134,495 1.8% 160,052 1.1% 178,030 1.3% 189,571 3.7%
Real Estate & Related Activities 115,048 1.7% 135,942 4.2% 205,983 2.0% 226,909 4.3%
Professional & Technical Services 240,089 4.4% 369,012 3.6% 526,680 2.8% 606,114 11.0%
Management & Related Activities 58,143 2.3% 72,761 0.2% 74,592 1.1% 78,756 1.6%
Administrative & Waste Services 148,654 5.4% 251,196 0.8% 272,170 2.6% 309,181 5.7%
Educational Services 38,991 4.6% 61,135 4.8% 97,790 2.7% 111,568 2.0%
Health Care & Social Assistance 251,143 2.6% 323,995 3.3% 446,942 2.5% 505,365 9.3%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 57,779 2.9% 77,262 2.1% 95,274 1.8% 104,369 2.0%
Accomodation & Food Services 216,481 2.1% 266,011 1.8% 318,499 1.6% 344,270 6.6%
Other Services, Except Public Administration 203,544 1.5% 237,129 1.7% 279,897 2.1% 310,349 5.8%
Federal Civilian Government 188,425 -1.3% 165,746 0.8% 180,108 0.6% 185,679 3.8%
Federal Military 211,595 -2.3% 168,189 -0.6% 158,279 0.2% 159,542 3.3%
State & Local Government 391,853 1.9% 473,204 1.2% 534,241 1.2% 568,462 11.1%
Total 3,699,605 1.7% 4,373,566 0.9% 4,802,382 1.7% 5,218,701 100.0%
Region
1990 1990-2000 2000 2000-2010 2010 2010-2015 2015 % of Total
Farm 1,082 0.5% 1,142 -2.0% 930 0.4% 949 0.8%
Forestry, Fishing & Related Activities 357 -0.1% 354 2.9% 470 1.4% 505 0.4%
Mining 229 -2.4% 179 5.7% 312 -1.2% 294 0.3%
Utilities 318 -3.8% 215 0.9% 234 0.5% 240 0.2%
Construction 4,384 4.2% 6,614 -1.5% 5,701 1.6% 6,167 4.9%
Manufacturing 4,842 -1.8% 4,023 -1.9% 3,327 1.3% 3,554 2.9%
Wholesale Trade 1,394 -0.2% 1,373 -2.9% 1,027 0.8% 1,070 0.9%
Retail Trade 10,196 0.8% 11,004 0.1% 11,149 0.3% 11,320 9.6%
Transportation & Warehousing 1,668 0.8% 1,813 0.0% 1,816 0.0% 1,818 1.6%
Information 2,193 3.1% 2,967 -2.1% 2,409 0.5% 2,469 2.1%
Finance & Insurance 2,268 3.1% 3,085 0.2% 3,135 0.5% 3,221 2.7%
Real Estate & Related Activities 2,395 3.3% 3,317 3.8% 4,838 0.9% 5,068 4.2%
Professional & Technical Services 4,758 4.3% 7,232 4.9% 11,709 2.6% 13,288 10.1%
Management & Related Activities 1,032 3.1% 1,402 1.8% 1,676 1.3% 1,786 1.4%
Administrative & Waste Services 2,524 5.3% 4,249 0.5% 4,459 2.3% 4,994 3.8%
Educational Services 1,059 5.2% 1,757 5.2% 2,920 2.3% 3,270 2.5%
Health Care & Social Assistance 5,898 3.1% 7,984 3.4% 11,156 3.3% 13,096 9.6%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 2,057 2.5% 2,642 3.0% 3,549 1.5% 3,815 3.1%
Accomodation & Food Services 5,876 2.0% 7,166 2.1% 8,819 1.3% 9,387 7.6%
Other Services, Except Public Administration 4,605 1.8% 5,492 1.6% 6,457 1.8% 7,054 5.6%
Federal Civilian Government 1,259 2.0% 1,528 -1.4% 1,321 -0.1% 1,313 1.1%
Federal Military 760 -1.0% 688 0.6% 727 0.2% 733 0.6%
State & Local Government 19,762 1.9% 23,767 1.6% 27,829 0.6% 28,740 24.0%
Total 80,916 2.1% 99,993 1.5% 115,970 1.4% 124,151 100.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Woods & Poole Economics
Average annual per capita earnings for the region increased from $23,842 in 1990 to $47,679 in 2010.
Earnings are forecasted to increase 3.7 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected
growth of 4.1 and 4.0 percent for the state and nation, respectively.
The table on the next page gives the distribution of average annual per capita earnings by industry for the
nation, state and region. Once again, the data set (which comes from Woods & Poole Economics), includes a
forecast through 2015.
Our analysis suggests that mining is the highest paying employment sector, with average annual per capita
earnings of $236,916 for the region. Average annual per capita earnings for the regional mining sector is
forecasted to grow 8.5 percent annually.
Our also analysis suggests that federal civilian government is the second highest paying employment sector,
with average annual per capita earnings of $130,112 for the region. Average annual per capita earnings for the
regional federal civilian government sector is forecasted to grow 2.5 percent annually.
Finally, our analysis suggests that utilities is the third highest paying employment sector, with average annual
per capita earnings of $120,401 for the region. Average annual per capita earnings for the regional utilities
sector is forecasted to grow 4.5 percent annually.
Please note: Woods & Poole Economics forecasts rely heavily on historic economic data. One should take
care in using these forecasts because historic economic performance may not be a good indicator of current
economic trends.
State
1990 1990-2000 2000 2000-2010 2010 2010-2015 2015
Farm $10,904 -1.7% $9,211 -3.9% $6,168 13.7% $11,716
Forestry, Fishing & Related Activities $17,727 1.7% $20,939 2.8% $27,470 3.2% $32,232
Mining $40,790 3.6% $58,026 3.6% $82,716 5.0% $105,683
Utilities $45,337 5.6% $78,373 5.7% $136,225 4.9% $173,232
Construction $25,767 4.9% $41,423 1.2% $46,658 4.9% $59,324
Manufacturing $30,063 3.9% $44,183 3.7% $63,457 4.7% $79,968
Wholesale Trade $36,284 5.0% $58,976 2.3% $73,758 4.5% $91,702
Retail Trade $15,937 3.7% $23,021 2.3% $28,797 3.9% $34,882
Transportation & Warehousing $27,691 3.6% $39,625 1.7% $46,904 3.6% $56,058
Information $34,488 9.0% $81,984 0.7% $88,165 4.0% $107,420
Finance & Insurance $25,937 6.4% $48,135 4.4% $74,139 4.8% $93,545
Real Estate & Related Activities $12,689 8.0% $27,352 -3.7% $18,757 4.4% $23,253
Professional & Technical Services $34,650 5.8% $60,658 3.5% $85,570 3.8% $103,137
Management & Related Activities $42,749 6.1% $76,972 4.1% $114,654 5.0% $146,022
Administrative & Waste Services $16,451 3.4% $23,028 3.6% $32,920 4.4% $40,826
Educational Services $15,679 5.3% $26,228 3.4% $36,547 3.0% $42,436
Health Care & Social Assistance $25,468 3.4% $35,504 3.6% $50,369 3.8% $60,790
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation $10,963 2.7% $14,358 2.6% $18,539 3.9% $22,480
Accomodation & Food Services $11,276 4.0% $16,766 2.5% $21,465 3.7% $25,783
Other Services, Except Public Administration $18,344 5.0% $29,824 2.6% $38,664 3.7% $46,310
Federal Civilian Government $46,772 4.8% $74,942 6.0% $134,489 4.5% $167,851
Federal Military $36,172 4.1% $54,229 7.2% $108,182 4.7% $135,796
State & Local Government $28,643 3.2% $39,414 3.3% $54,687 4.0% $66,459
Total $26,004 4.4% $40,130 3.2% $55,133 4.1% $67,393
Region
1990 1990-2000 2000 2000-2010 2010 2010-2015 2015
Farm $6,947 -5.0% $4,167 #NUM! -$12,058 -185.4% $5,482
Forestry, Fishing & Related Activities $13,243 5.6% $22,929 1.1% $25,666 2.9% $29,633
Mining $179,782 11.0% $509,086 -7.4% $236,916 8.5% $356,145
Utilities $44,557 4.2% $66,936 6.0% $120,401 4.5% $150,180
Construction $24,729 5.0% $40,391 0.2% $41,298 3.9% $50,101
Manufacturing $30,765 6.6% $58,221 2.5% $74,372 4.8% $94,093
Wholesale Trade $34,185 4.5% $53,261 0.5% $55,778 4.4% $69,250
Retail Trade $14,692 5.8% $25,839 1.4% $29,561 4.0% $35,892
Transportation & Warehousing $21,558 2.5% $27,661 2.4% $35,103 3.5% $41,779
Information $24,557 6.3% $45,448 3.7% $65,628 4.1% $80,415
Finance & Insurance $26,127 5.4% $44,339 9.0% $105,212 -1.3% $98,388
Real Estate & Related Activities $11,517 6.7% $21,944 -2.5% $16,955 8.8% $25,901
Professional & Technical Services $24,179 4.8% $38,592 1.9% $46,454 4.3% $57,227
Management & Related Activities $34,485 5.5% $58,780 0.6% $62,494 4.5% $77,832
Administrative & Waste Services $17,630 2.5% $22,528 2.2% $27,961 3.9% $33,895
Educational Services $12,672 5.3% $21,221 0.7% $22,813 4.1% $27,926
Health Care & Social Assistance $27,224 3.2% $37,265 3.0% $50,048 3.9% $60,473
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation $13,755 2.7% $18,023 0.3% $18,529 3.4% $21,943
Accomodation & Food Services $12,059 4.3% $18,445 1.2% $20,690 3.3% $24,307
Other Services, Except Public Administration $18,960 4.8% $30,363 2.9% $40,403 3.5% $48,076
Federal Civilian Government $43,481 4.6% $68,110 6.7% $130,112 2.5% $147,386
Federal Military $25,507 5.3% $42,720 9.8% $108,646 1.8% $118,716
State & Local Government $30,384 3.6% $43,261 3.9% $63,413 3.9% $76,876
Total $23,842 4.4% $36,723 2.6% $47,679 3.7% $57,191
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Woods & Poole Economics
The top 5 employers include: (1) University Of Virginia (20,000 employees); (2) U VA Neurological Surgery
(5,001 employees); (3) University-VA Health Systems (5,001 employees); (4) U VA Urology (4,000 employees);
and (5) Summit Realty Co (1,700 employees).
It is important to note that the top employer listing is not an exhaustive list. Other employers exist in this
marketplace which are not included because data was not available for this survey. In our opinion, however,
the list gives a reasonable snapshot of the employer composition for this area.
The following table gives manufacturing employment data for the nation, state and region since 1990. The data
set, which comes from Woods & Poole Economics, includes a forecast through 2015:
Manufacturing Employment
Nation State Region
1990 Employment 18,123,211 397,300 4,842
2000 Employment 17,750,623 363,499 4,023
1990-2000 Change -372,588 -33,801 -819
Annual Change, % -0.2% -0.9% -1.8%
Manufacturing employment for the region decreased from 4,842 in 1990 to 3,327 in 2008. Employment is
forecasted to increase 1.3 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 0.2 and
0.2 percent for the state and nation, respectively.
Please note: Woods & Poole Economics forecasts rely heavily on historic economic data. One should take
care in using these forecasts because historic economic performance may not be a good indicator of current
economic trends.
In the discussion below, we summarize employment news for some of the larger employers in the area:
University Of Virginia
Our employment data source list 20000 people employed by University Of Virginia (434-924-4598) in
Charlottesville, Virginia, Albemarle & Charlottesville City Counties making them the largest employer. We
spoke with Greg Fresheour in the HR Dept; he confirmed the number of employees at 20000; with 11000 in
the academic division and 9000 in the healthcare division. He also stated that they have had layoffs in different
departments, but are moving employees around to different divisions. He also stated that hirings will be for
replacements only over the next few months.
Summit Reality
Our employment data source list 1700 people employed by Summit Reality (434-817-4040) in Charlottesville,
Virginia, Albemarle & Charlottesville City Counties making them the second largest employer. After multiple
City of Charlottesville
Our employment data source list 900 people employed by City of Charlottesville (434-970-3333) in
Charlottesville, Virginia, Albemarle & Charlottesville City Counties making them the sixth largest employer.
After multiple attempts, we were not able to get a person on the line to confirm our information.
Lexis Nexis
Our employment data source list 600 people employed by Lexis Nexis (434-972-7600) in Charlottesville,
Virginia, Albemarle & Charlottesville City Counties making them tied for the eighth largest employer. After
multiple attempts, we were not able to get a person on the line to confirm our information. We left messages
for Ashley Sloskey in the HR Dept. but received no call back.
Top Employers.pdf
In 2000 there were 51,311 housing units in the region. Between 2000 and 2010 a total of 8,465 new units (net
of any demolitions) were completed. This resulted in a total of 59,776 housing units in 2010. Between 2010 and
2015 a total of 2,932 new units (net of any demolitions) are anticipated. This results in an estimated total of
62,708 housing units in 2015.
In this section we conduct an analysis of regional and market area demographic and select housing
characteristics. Our analysis uses the regional and market area definitions presented previously in this report.
Population
The following tables give population data for the nation, state, region and market area since 2000. The data
sets, which come from the U.S. Census Bureau and Claritas, include forecasts through 2015:
Population
Nation State Region Market
2000 Population 281,421,906 7,078,515 124,285 61,194
2010 Population 309,038,974 7,884,742 136,255 60,173
2000-2010 Change 27,617,068 806,227 11,970 -1,021
Annual Change, % 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% -0.2%
Population for the market area decreased from 61,194 in 2000 to 60,173 in 2010. Population is forecasted to
increase 0.2 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 0.7, 0.8 and 0.8 percent
for the region, state and nation, respectively.
<55 Population
Nation State Region Market
2000 Population 222,155,469 5,654,571 99,857 50,549
2010 Population 232,900,422 5,964,800 101,984 45,596
2000-2010 Change 10,744,953 310,229 2,127 -4,953
Annual Change, % 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% -1.0%
The <55 population for the market area decreased from 50,549 in 2000 to 45,596 in 2010. The <55 population
is forecasted to decrease 0.1 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 0.1,
0.0 and 0.1 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
The 55+ population for the market area increased from 10,646 in 2000 to 14,577 in 2010. The 55+ population
is forecasted to increase 1.1 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 2.4, 3.2
and 2.8 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
62+ Population
Nation State Region Market
2000 Population 42,274,158 981,816 17,456 8,004
2010 Population 51,316,844 1,271,601 24,112 10,961
2000-2010 Change 9,042,686 289,785 6,656 2,957
Annual Change, % 2.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.2%
The 62+ population for the market area increased from 8,004 in 2000 to 10,961 in 2010. The 62+ population is
forecasted to increase 0.7 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 2.3, 3.4
and 2.9 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
65+ Population
Nation State Region Market
2000 Population 34,991,753 792,333 14,468 6,873
2010 Population 40,678,969 993,741 19,758 9,412
2000-2010 Change 5,687,216 201,408 5,290 2,540
Annual Change, % 1.5% 2.3% 3.2% 3.2%
The 65+ population for the market area increased from 6,873 in 2000 to 9,412 in 2010. The 65+ population is
forecasted to increase 0.4 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 2.1, 3.5
and 2.9 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
Population per household for the market area decreased from 2.53 in 2000 to 2.31 in 2010. Population per
household is forecasted to decrease from 2.31 in 2010 to 2.29 in 2015.
The <55 population per household for the market area decreased from 2.85 in 2000 to 2.64 in 2010. The <55
population per household is forecasted to decrease from 2.64 in 2010 to 2.63 in 2015.
The 55+ population per household for the market area increased from 1.63 in 2000 to 1.67 in 2010. The 55+
population per household is forecasted to decrease from 1.67 in 2010 to 1.65 in 2015.
The 62+ population per household for the market area increased from 1.65 in 2000 to 1.70 in 2010. The 62+
population per household is forecasted to decrease from 1.70 in 2010 to 1.68 in 2015.
The 65+ population per household for the market area increased from 1.67 in 2000 to 1.71 in 2010. The 65+
population per household is forecasted to decrease from 1.71 in 2010 to 1.71 in 2015.
Households
Nation State Region Market
2000 Households 105,539,122 2,700,335 48,777 24,224
2010 Households 116,136,617 3,043,091 55,424 26,006
2000-2010 Change 10,597,495 342,756 6,647 1,782
Annual Change, % 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.7%
Households for the market area increased from 24,224 in 2000 to 26,006 in 2010. Households are forecasted
to increase 0.4 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 1.0, 0.9 and 0.8
percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
<55 Households
Nation State Region Market
2000 Households 69,061,603 1,823,639 33,820 17,707
2010 Households 70,450,021 1,874,847 34,766 17,298
2000-2010 Change 1,388,418 51,208 946 -409
Annual Change, % 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% -0.2%
The <55 households for the market area decreased from 17,707 in 2000 to 17,298 in 2010. The <55
households are forecasted to decrease 0.0 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected
growth of 0.1, -0.5 and -0.4 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
55+ Households
Nation State Region Market
2000 Households 36,477,519 876,696 14,957 6,517
2010 Households 45,686,596 1,168,244 20,658 8,708
2000-2010 Change 9,209,077 291,548 5,701 2,191
Annual Change, % 2.3% 2.9% 3.3% 2.9%
The 55+ households for the market area increased from 6,517 in 2000 to 8,708 in 2010. The 55+ households
are forecasted to increase 1.3 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 2.3,
3.0 and 2.6 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
The 62+ households for the market area increased from 4,840 in 2000 to 6,459 in 2010. The 62+ households
are forecasted to increase 0.8 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 2.1,
3.0 and 2.6 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
65+ Households
Nation State Region Market
2000 Households 22,112,959 500,652 8,834 4,122
2010 Households 24,986,966 614,726 11,738 5,495
2000-2010 Change 2,874,007 114,074 2,904 1,373
Annual Change, % 1.2% 2.1% 2.9% 2.9%
The 65+ households for the market area increased from 4,122 in 2000 to 5,495 in 2010. The 65+ households
are forecasted to increase 0.5 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 1.9,
3.1 and 2.6 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
Owner Tenure
Nation State Region Market
2000 Tenure 66.2% 68.1% 57.4% 41.2%
2010 Tenure 66.8% 70.0% 60.4% 44.9%
2000-2010 Change 0.66% 1.86% 2.99% 3.69%
Owner tenure for the market area increased from 41.2 percent in 2000 to 44.9 percent in 2010. Owner tenure
is forecasted to decrease from 44.9 percent in 2010 to 44.8 percent in 2015.
The <55 owner tenure for the market area increased from 29.8 percent in 2000 to 31.4 percent in 2010. The
<55 owner tenure is forecasted to decrease from 31.4 percent in 2010 to 31.2 percent in 2015.
The 55+ owner tenure for the market area decreased from 72.1 percent in 2000 to 71.7 percent in 2010. The
55+ owner tenure is forecasted to decrease from 71.7 percent in 2010 to 70.1 percent in 2015.
The 62+ owner tenure for the market area decreased from 72.3 percent in 2000 to 71.4 percent in 2010. The
62+ owner tenure is forecasted to decrease from 71.4 percent in 2010 to 70.0 percent in 2015.
The 65+ owner tenure for the market area decreased from 72.5 percent in 2000 to 71.3 percent in 2010. The
65+ owner tenure is forecasted to decrease from 71.3 percent in 2010 to 70.0 percent in 2015.
Renter Tenure
Nation State Region Market
2000 Tenure 33.8% 31.9% 42.6% 58.8%
2010 Tenure 33.2% 30.0% 39.6% 55.1%
2000-2010 Change -0.66% -1.86% -2.99% -3.69%
Renter tenure for the market area decreased from 58.8 percent in 2000 to 55.1 percent in 2010. Renter tenure
is forecasted to increase from 55.1 percent in 2010 to 55.2 percent in 2015.
The <55 renter tenure for the market area decreased from 70.2 percent in 2000 to 68.6 percent in 2010. The
<55 renter tenure is forecasted to increase from 68.6 percent in 2010 to 68.8 percent in 2015.
The 55+ renter tenure for the market area increased from 27.9 percent in 2000 to 28.3 percent in 2010. The
55+ renter tenure is forecasted to increase from 28.3 percent in 2010 to 29.9 percent in 2015.
The 62+ renter tenure for the market area increased from 27.7 percent in 2000 to 28.6 percent in 2010. The
62+ renter tenure is forecasted to increase from 28.6 percent in 2010 to 30.0 percent in 2015.
The 65+ renter tenure for the market area increased from 27.5 percent in 2000 to 28.7 percent in 2010. The
65+ renter tenure is forecasted to increase from 28.7 percent in 2010 to 30.0 percent in 2015.
Owner Households
Nation State Region Market
2000 Households 69,840,987 1,840,114 27,986 9,974
2010 Households 77,624,393 2,130,300 33,455 11,669
2000-2010 Change 7,783,406 290,186 5,469 1,695
Annual Change, % 1.1% 1.5% 1.8% 1.6%
Owner households for the market area increased from 9,974 in 2000 to 11,669 in 2010. Owner households are
forecasted to increase 0.4 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 1.0, 1.0
and 0.8 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
The <55 owner households for the market area increased from 5,277 in 2000 to 5,428 in 2010. The <55 owner
households are forecasted to decrease 0.1 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected
growth of -0.1, -0.6 and -0.7 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
The 55+ owner households for the market area increased from 4,697 in 2000 to 6,240 in 2010. The 55+ owner
households are forecasted to increase 0.8 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected
growth of 2.2, 2.9 and 2.5 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
The 62+ owner households for the market area increased from 3,501 in 2000 to 4,613 in 2010. The 62+ owner
households are forecasted to increase 0.4 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected
growth of 1.9, 3.0 and 2.5 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
The 65+ owner households for the market area increased from 2,989 in 2000 to 3,916 in 2010. The 65+ owner
households are forecasted to increase 0.1 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected
growth of 1.8, 3.0 and 2.5 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
Renter Households
Nation State Region Market
2000 Households 35,698,135 860,221 20,791 14,250
2010 Households 38,512,224 912,791 21,969 14,337
2000-2010 Change 2,814,089 52,570 1,178 87
Annual Change, % 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Renter households for the market area increased from 14,250 in 2000 to 14,337 in 2010. Renter households
are forecasted to increase 0.5 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected growth of 0.8,
0.7 and 0.8 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
The <55 renter households for the market area decreased from 12,430 in 2000 to 11,870 in 2010. The <55
renter households are forecasted to increase 0.0 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with
projected growth of 0.3, -0.2 and 0.0 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
The 55+ renter households for the market area increased from 1,820 in 2000 to 2,467 in 2010. The 55+ renter
households are forecasted to increase 2.4 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected
growth of 3.0, 3.3 and 3.0 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
The 62+ renter households for the market area increased from 1,339 in 2000 to 1,846 in 2010. The 62+ renter
households are forecasted to increase 1.8 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected
growth of 2.6, 3.3 and 2.9 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
The 65+ renter households for the market area increased from 1,133 in 2000 to 1,580 in 2010. The 65+ renter
households are forecasted to increase 1.4 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with projected
growth of 2.3, 3.3 and 2.9 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
Average household income for the market area increased from $46,991 in 2000 to $61,700 in 2010. Household
income is forecasted to increase 1.9 percent annually through 2015. This is compared with consumer price
index growth of 1.1 percent over the past 12 months, suggesting that growth in real disposable income is
anticipated for the area.
The following table and graph show the current distribution of household incomes for the market area. The data
set comes from the U.S. Census and Claritas:
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
$0 to $9,999 $10,000 to $20,000 to $30,000 to $40,000 to $50,000 to $60,000 to $70,000 to $80,000 or more
$19,999 $29,999 $39,999 $49,999 $59,999 $69,999 $79,999
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
$0 to $9,999 $10,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $29,999 $30,000 to $39,999 $40,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $69,999 $70,000 to $79,999 $80,000 or more
The following table shows the current distribution of <55 owner household incomes for the market area. Once
again, the data set comes from the U.S. Census Bureau and Claritas:
The following table shows the current distribution of 62+ owner household incomes for the market area. Once
again, the data set comes from the U.S. Census Bureau and Claritas:
The following table shows the current distribution of 65+ owner household incomes for the market area. Once
again, the data set comes from the U.S. Census Bureau and Claritas:
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
$0 to $9,999 $10,000 to $19,999 $20,000 to $29,999 $30,000 to $39,999 $40,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $69,999 $70,000 to $79,999 $80,000 or more
The following table shows the current distribution of <55 renter household incomes for the market area. Once
again, the data set comes from the U.S. Census Bureau and Claritas:
The following table shows the current distribution of 62+ renter household incomes for the market area. Once
again, the data set comes from the U.S. Census Bureau and Claritas:
The following table shows the current distribution of 65+ renter household incomes for the market area. Once
again, the data set comes from the U.S. Census Bureau and Claritas:
Our research suggests that 13.0 percent of the owner households in this market area are overburdened,
paying more than 35 percent of their income towards housing-related costs. Our research also suggests that
19.1 percent of the owner households are overburdened to 30 percent of income.
Our research suggests that 13.1 percent of the <55 owner households in this market area are overburdened,
paying more than 35 percent of their income towards housing-related costs. Our research also suggests that
20.9 percent of the <55 owner households are overburdened to 30 percent of income.
Our research suggests that 12.9 percent of the 55+ owner households in this market area are overburdened,
paying more than 35 percent of their income towards housing-related costs. Our research also suggests that
17.0 percent of the 55+ owner households are overburdened to 30 percent of income.
Our research suggests that 12.6 percent of the 62+ owner households in this market area are overburdened,
paying more than 35 percent of their income towards housing-related costs. Our research also suggests that
16.1 percent of the 62+ owner households are overburdened to 30 percent of income.
Our research suggests that 12.4 percent of the 65+ owner households in this market area are overburdened,
paying more than 35 percent of their income towards housing-related costs. Our research also suggests that
15.5 percent of the 65+ owner households are overburdened to 30 percent of income.
Our research suggests that 41.8 percent of the renter households in this market area are overburdened, paying
more than 35 percent of their income towards housing-related costs. Our research also suggests that 49.4
percent of the renter households are overburdened to 30 percent of income.
Our research suggests that 41.6 percent of the <55 renter households in this market area are overburdened,
paying more than 35 percent of their income towards housing-related costs. Our research also suggests that
49.1 percent of the <55 renter households are overburdened to 30 percent of income.
Our research suggests that 43.4 percent of the 55+ renter households in this market area are overburdened,
paying more than 35 percent of their income towards housing-related costs. Our research also suggests that
51.6 percent of the 55+ renter households are overburdened to 30 percent of income.
Our research suggests that 48.5 percent of the 62+ renter households in this market area are overburdened,
paying more than 35 percent of their income towards housing-related costs. Our research also suggests that
57.9 percent of the 62+ renter households are overburdened to 30 percent of income.
Our research suggests that 52.3 percent of the 65+ renter households in this market area are overburdened,
paying more than 35 percent of their income towards housing-related costs. Our research also suggests that
62.6 percent of the 65+ renter households are overburdened to 30 percent of income.
The following tables give owner substandard housing unit data for occupied housing units in the nation, state,
region and market area. The data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau:
Our research suggests that 1.0 percent of occupied owner housing units in the market area are substandard.
This is compared with 1.4, 2.1 and 3.5 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
Our research suggests that 5.7 percent of occupied renter housing units in the market area are substandard.
This is compared with 5.2, 7.7 and 11.7 percent for the region, state and nation, respectively.
Our research suggests an owner movership rate of 8.4 percent, consisting of 4.9 percent owner to owner and 3.6
percent owner to renter movership.
Our research suggests an elderly owner movership rate of 3.7 percent, consisting of 2.4 percent owner to owner
and 1.2 percent owner to renter movership.
Renter Movership
The following tables give renter household movership data for the market area with an estimated breakout by
household size. The data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau and the American Housing Survey:
Our research suggests a renter movership rate of 39.5 percent, consisting of 30.0 percent renter to renter and
9.5 percent renter to owner movership.
Our research suggests an elderly renter movership rate of 8.0 percent, consisting of 7.1 percent renter to renter
and 0.9 percent renter to owner movership.
The total number of housing units for the market area increased from 25,302 in 2000 to 27,625 in 2010. The
total number of housing units is forecasted to increase by 604 units or 0.4 percent annually through 2015. As
discussed earlier, the number of households for the market area is anticipated to increase by 563 between
2010 and 2015.
The following tables give the distribution of occupied housing units by building type for the market area. The
data set comes from the U.S. Census:
Our research suggest that 90.8 percent of owners reside in of single family units. In addition, 16.8 percent of
renters reside in properties with 20 or more multifamily units.
In this section we conduct an analysis of multifamily housing supply for the market area. Our analysis uses the
market area definition presented previously in this report.
Overview
In conducting our analysis, we attempted to obtain information on every multifamily property with 20 or more
units in the market area. Our analysis included conventionally financed multifamily communities as well as
properties financed by the local housing authority and the state housing finance agency. Our analysis also
included properties financed by and/or subsidized by USDA and/or HUD. Finally, our analysis included
properties that are either proposed or currently under construction. The result was a comprehensive listing of
projects with 20 or more units - whether existing, under construction, or proposed - for this area. Our rental
property inventory listing is found in the pages that follow.
A map showing the location of the properties included in the rental property inventory is found in the pages that
follow. Properties identified with red pushpins have 100 percent market rate units (market rate properties),
properties identified with yellow pushpins have a mixture of market rate / restricted / subsidized units (restricted
properties), and properties identified with blue pushpins have 100 percent project-based rental assistance
(subsidized properties).
After accounting for any unconfirmed properties and any properties that are located outside the defined market
area, we arrived at a list of confirmed market area properties. This is the listing of properties upon which our
analysis is based. In our opinion, the properties included on this list give a credible picture of market conditions
as of the effective date of this report. This listing is found in the pages that follow.
Our supply analysis includes a breakdown of confirmed market area properties by rent type, project status,
year built, and financing source. We also include a rent, unit mix, and amenity summary for confirmed market
area properties. Finally, we provide summary of vouchers, concessions, and waiting lists for the properties
included in this report. This information is also found in the pages that follow.
Total Units
Elderly Family Total
Market Rate 546 6,650 7,196
Restricted 203 1,155 1,358
Subsidized 120 311 431
Total 869 8,116 8,985
Vacant Units
Elderly Family Total
Market Rate 101 362 463
Restricted 17 137 154
Subsidized 54 54
Total 118 553 671
Occupancy Rate
Elderly Family Total
Market Rate 82% 95% 94%
Restricted 92% 88% 89%
Subsidized 100% 83% 87%
Total 86% 93% 93%
Source: Allen & Associates
Occupancy Rate for Confirmed Elderly Units Occupancy Rate for Confirmed Family Units
Mkt Mkt
Res Res
Sub Sub
50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
Our analysis includes a total of 91 confirmed market area properties consisting of 8,985 units. The occupancy
rate for these units currently stands at 93 percent. This rate reflects the occupancy for all confirmed market
area units, regardless of project status (stabilized, under construction, proposed, etc.).
Confirmed market area properties break down by rent type and tenure as shown in the tables above.
Lease Up 1 1 Lease Up
Construction Construction 1 1
Rehabilitation 1 1 Rehabilitation 2 2
Prop Const Prop Const 1 1
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 2 2
Unstabilized Unstabilized 1 1
Subtotal 2 2 Subtotal 4 3 7
Total 1 3 6 10 Total 1 12 68 81
Lease Up 92 92 Lease Up
Construction Construction 22 66 88
Rehabilitation 69 69 Rehabilitation 340 340
Prop Const Prop Const 30 30 60
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 40 174 214
Unstabilized Unstabilized 158 158
Subtotal 161 161 Subtotal 92 270 498 860
Total 120 203 546 869 Total 311 1,155 6,650 8,116
Lease Up 86 86 Lease Up
Construction Construction 22 66 88
Rehabilitation 3 3 Rehabilitation 52 52
Prop Const Prop Const 30 30 60
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized 60 60
Subtotal 89 89 Subtotal 52 96 112 260
Our survey includes a total of 82 stabilized market area properties consisting of 7,964 units standing at 96 percent
occupancy.
Our survey also includes a total of 9 market area properties consisting of 1,021 units that are not yet stabilized.
Unstabilized units (also referred to as pipeline units) include vacant units in lease up, construction, rehabilitation,
proposed new construction, and units with proposed renovation plans.
Lease Up 7% 7% Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation 96% 96% Rehabilitation 85% 85%
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 100% 100% 100%
Unstabilized Unstabilized 62% 62%
Subtotal 45% 45% Subtotal 43% 64% 78% 70%
Total 100% 92% 82% 86% Total 83% 88% 95% 93%
Source: Allen & Associates
Occupancies of stabilized market area properties broken out by occupancy type (elderly or family) and rent type
(subsidized, restricted or market rate) are found below:
Occupancy Rate for Stabilized Elderly Units Occupancy Rate for Stabilized Family Units
Mkt Mkt
Res Res
Sub Sub
80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
Our research suggests the following occupancy levels for the 708 stabilized elderly units in this market area:
Our research suggests the following occupancy levels for the 7,256 stabilized family units in this market area:
Occupancy Rate for Stabilized Elderly Units Occupancy Rate for Stabilized Family Units
0BR 0BR
1BR 1BR
2BR 2BR
3BR 3BR
4BR 4BR
80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
Our research suggests the following occupancy levels for the 708 stabilized elderly units in this market area:
Our research suggests the following occupancy levels for the 7,256 stabilized family units in this market area:
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation 1 1 Rehabilitation
Prop Const Prop Const 1 1 2
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized
Subtotal 1 1 Subtotal 1 1 2
Total 1 1 1 3 Total 1 1 1 12 15
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation 6 6 Rehabilitation
Prop Const Prop Const 30 30 60
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized
Subtotal 6 6 Subtotal 30 30 60
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation Rehabilitation
Prop Const Prop Const 30 30 60
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized
Subtotal Subtotal 30 30 60
Total Total 30 30 9 69
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation 100% 100% Rehabilitation
Prop Const Prop Const 0% 0% 0%
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized
Subtotal 100% 100% Subtotal 0% 0% 0%
Lease Up 1 1 Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation 1 1 Rehabilitation 2 2
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 1 1 1 3
Unstabilized Unstabilized 1 1
Subtotal 2 2 Subtotal 1 1 1 3 6
Total 2 1 2 2 5 12 Total 4 1 4 36 45
Lease Up 60 60 Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation 50 50 Rehabilitation 93 93
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 4 10 7 21
Unstabilized Unstabilized 34 34
Subtotal 110 110 Subtotal 4 10 7 127 148
Lease Up 57 57 Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation 2 2 Rehabilitation 17 17
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized 13 13
Subtotal 59 59 Subtotal 30 30
Total 13 61 74 Total 2 79 81
Lease Up 5% 5% Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation 96% 96% Rehabilitation 82% 82%
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 100% 100% 100% 100%
Unstabilized Unstabilized 62% 62%
Subtotal 46% 46% Subtotal 100% 100% 100% 76% 80%
Total 100% 100% 100% 87% 72% 84% Total 100% 100% 98% 95% 95%
Source: Allen & Associates
Lease Up 1 1 Lease Up
Construction Construction 1 1 2
Rehabilitation 1 1 Rehabilitation 2 2
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 1 1 1 3
Unstabilized Unstabilized 1 1
Subtotal 2 2 Subtotal 2 2 1 3 8
Total 2 1 2 6 11 Total 5 6 8 56 75
Lease Up 32 32 Lease Up
Construction Construction 6 58 64
Rehabilitation 13 13 Rehabilitation 218 218
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 19 71 7 97
Unstabilized Unstabilized 104 104
Subtotal 45 45 Subtotal 25 129 7 322 483
Lease Up 29 29 Lease Up
Construction Construction 6 58 64
Rehabilitation 1 1 Rehabilitation 31 31
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized 39 39
Subtotal 30 30 Subtotal 6 58 70 134
Lease Up 9% 9% Lease Up
Construction Construction 0% 0% 0%
Rehabilitation 92% 92% Rehabilitation 86% 86%
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 100% 100% 100% 100%
Unstabilized Unstabilized 63% 63%
Subtotal 33% 33% Subtotal 76% 55% 100% 78% 72%
Total 100% 100% 92% 88% 88% Total 95% 70% 95% 94% 93%
Source: Allen & Associates
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction 1 1 2
Rehabilitation Rehabilitation 1 1
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 1 1 2 1 5
Unstabilized Unstabilized 1 1
Subtotal Subtotal 2 1 3 1 2 9
Total Total 5 1 6 7 39 58
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction 16 8 24
Rehabilitation Rehabilitation 29 29
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 17 6 63 10 96
Unstabilized Unstabilized 20 20
Subtotal Subtotal 33 6 71 10 49 169
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction 16 8 24
Rehabilitation Rehabilitation 4 4
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized 8 8
Subtotal Subtotal 16 8 12 36
Total Total 17 9 15 58 99
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction 0% 0% 0%
Rehabilitation Rehabilitation 86% 86%
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Unstabilized Unstabilized 60% 60%
Subtotal Subtotal 52% 100% 89% 100% 76% 79%
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation Rehabilitation
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized
Subtotal Subtotal
Total Total 1 20 21
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation Rehabilitation
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized
Subtotal Subtotal
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation Rehabilitation
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized
Subtotal Subtotal
Total Total 14 14
Lease Up Lease Up
Construction Construction
Rehabilitation Rehabilitation
Prop Const Prop Const
Prop Rehab Prop Rehab
Unstabilized Unstabilized
Subtotal Subtotal
Total Units
Elderly Family Total
<1960 38 242 280
1960-1969 1,391 1,391
1970-1979 2,786 2,786
1980-1989 168 153 321
1990-1999 286 1,165 1,451
2000+ 377 2,165 2,542
Unknown 214 214
Total 869 8,116 8,985
Source: Allen & Associates
Unknown
2000+
1990-1999
1980-1989
1970-1979
1960-1969
<1960
Our research suggests that of the 91 confirmed market area properties (8985 units) included in this report, 5
properties (280 units) were constructed before 1960, 15 properties (1391 units) were constructed between 1960
and 1969, 15 properties (2786 units) between 1970 and 1979, 6 properties (321 units) between 1980 and 1989,
16 properties (1451 units) between 1990 and 1999, and 28 properties (2542 units) after 2000. In addition, 6
properties (214 units) had an unknown date of construction.
Total Units
Elderly Family Total
Conventional 546 6,643 7,189
Tax Credit 187 661 848
Bond 38 610 648
USDA-RD
HUD 98 202 300
Other
Total 869 8,116 8,985
Source: Allen & Associates
Other
HUD
USDA-RD
Bond
Tax Credit
Conventional
Our research suggests that of the 91 confirmed properties in the market area, 74 properties (consisting of 7189
units) are conventionally financed, 9 properties (consisting of 848 units) include tax credit financing, 6 properties
(consisting of 648 units) are bond financed, 0 properties (consisting of 0 units) are exclusively USDA-RD
financed, and 2 properties (consisting of 300 units) are exclusively HUD financed.
The average project size for this market area is 99 units. The smallest projects are tax credit financed,
averaging 94 units in size. The largest projects are exclusively HUD financed, averaging 150 units in size.
Unit Size
Subsidized Restricted Market
Min Max Avg Min Max Avg Min Max Avg
0-Bedroom 356 356 356 305 488 409 225 783 462
1-Bedroom 510 690 608 525 700 635 510 1,500 739
2-Bedroom 640 971 793 690 1,100 880 690 1,850 1,027
3-Bedroom 748 1,176 954 860 1,300 1,077 800 1,850 1,271
4-Bedroom 938 938 938 - - - 795 1,698 1,361
Rent per Square Foot for Restricted Units Rent per Square Foot for Market Rate Units
0BR 0BR
1BR 1BR
2BR 2BR
3BR 3BR
4BR 4BR
$0.30 $0.50 $0.70 $0.90 $1.10 $1.30 $1.50 $1.70 $0.30 $0.50 $0.70 $0.90 $1.10 $1.30 $1.50 $1.70
Our research suggests the following average rent levels for confirmed market rate units:
A detailed listing of rents and floor areas for confirmed market area properties by unit type and income target is
found in the following pages.
Rental Property Inventory, Confirmed, Inside Market Area, Unit Mix Summary
Elderly Family
Total Units Total Units
Sub Res Mkt Tot Sub Res Mkt Tot
0-Bedroom 23 6 29 0-Bedroom 30 71 117 218
1-Bedroom 111 127 220 458 1-Bedroom 24 109 1,622 1,755
2-Bedroom 9 53 320 382 2-Bedroom 135 650 3,275 4,060
3-Bedroom 3-Bedroom 106 325 1,300 1,731
4-Bedroom 4-Bedroom 16 336 352
Total 120 203 546 869 Total 311 1,155 6,650 8,116
Unit Mix for Confirmed Elderly Units Unit Mix for Confirmed Family Units
0BR 0BR
1BR 1BR
2BR 2BR
3BR 3BR
4BR 4BR
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Our research suggests the following unit mix for the 869 confirmed elderly units located in this market area:
Our research suggests the following unit mix for the 8,116 confirmed family units located in this market area:
Our research suggests that 1 percent of confirmed market area properties are 1 story in height, 93 percent are
2-4 stories in height, 5 percent are 5-10 stories in height, and 0 percent are over 10 stories in height. In
addition, surveyed properties benefit from the following project amenities: 23 percent have a
business/computer center, 40 percent have a community center, 32 percent have a fitness center, 24 percent
have a playground, and 18 percent have a sports court.
In addition, 98 percent of confirmed market area properties have central heat while 93 percent have central air.
Our research also suggests that 95 percent of surveyed properties have open parking. A total of 43 percent of
area properties have central laundry facilities, while 12 percent have washer/dryer hookups, and 51 percent
have washer/dryer units in each residential unit.
A total of 10 percent of confirmed market area properties have call buttons, 30 percent have controlled access,
and 0 percent have security alarms.
It is also our understanding that the majority of confirmed market area properties provide cable access.
Finally, in the following pages we provide summary of vouchers, concessions and waiting lists for the
confirmed market area properties included in this report.