“A STUDY ON FACTOR AFFECTING PRICE MOVEMENT IN

COMMODITY MARKET”

COMPANY PROFILE

• Benz Com Consulting pvt limited is India’s first and only company focusing
exclusively on commodity futures trading, in global markets since its inception in
1999.

• The company has experience with the volumes and complexities of the global
commodity markets giving it considerable expertise in this challenging area.

• We provide broking and advisory services for trading in metals, grains, meat
products, soft commodities and currencies in the over the counter derivative markets
and various international exchanges.

INDUSTRY PROFILE

Commodity markets are markets where raw or primary products are exchanged.
These raw commodities are traded on regulated commodities exchanges, in which they are
bought and sold in standardized contracts.

This article focuses on the history and current debates regarding

global commodity markets. It covers physical product (food, metals, and electricity) markets
but not the ways that services, including those of governments, nor investment, nor debt, can
be seen as a commodity. Articles on reinsurance markets, stock markets, bond
markets and currency markets cover those concerns separately and in more depth. One focus
of this article is the relationship between simple commodity money and the more complex
instruments offered in the commodity markets.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

• Exploratory Research

The study is purely based on the exploratory design. To finding the awareness
of research questions.

• Descriptive Research

To know the current market

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

(North, 1990; Williamson, 1975, 1996) We use two theoretical perspectives to

understand the transformation of markets in developing countries over the past half century:
(1) the structural transformation as a regular economic process, with both demand and
technological drivers; and (2) induced technological, organizational, and institutional
changes, which respond to the impact of those drivers. We use the “new institutional
economics” meanings of these terms, where “organization” is the structure of relations
among producers, and “institutions” are the rules of the game governing economic relations.

As economic growth proceeds and per capita incomes rise, there is a gradual but
persistent change in the product composition, or intersectoral structure, of the economy.

(Via Rybczynski’s Theorem, 1955; Hayami and Ruttan, 1971) First, there is a
decrease in the share of food output in total output. This process is driven by changing
demand, via Engels Law (showing that the share of food in total household or national
expenditure declines as income per capita increases) and technological change that drives,
and is driven by, changing factor prices.

(Gardner, 2002) Second, accompanying the smaller relative role of the food sector in
both production and consumption in all countries (despite the opportunity for international
trade to permit specialization) is the process of urbanization. In most countries, this has
involved the active migration of rural workers to urban jobs, and the difficulties of this
process have been the focus of most policy attention to the structural transformation.
Continuing efforts by rich countries to protect their agricultural sectors in the face of this
unrelenting pressure show how deeply rooted are the problems of equilibrating incomes
between rural and urban areas.

Third, there is an increase in specialization and gains from efficiency that translate
into rising incomes. Specialization and reduced transaction costs that come from
infrastructure investments and better communication technologies bring increases in market
size and economies of scale. In turn, there is consolidation and increases in firm scale over
time.

(Timmer, 1997; Pingali and Rosegrant, 1995) Finally, the agricultural transformation
mirrors and is driven by the overall structural transformation, and simultaneously drives it.
On the one hand, there is a change in intrasectoral composition, with a decrease over time in
the share of staples in total agricultural output and a concomitant increase in processed
staples and consumption of non-staples, such as fruit and vegetables, meat and fish, dairy,
and oils and fats. This increase is demand driven, reflecting Bennett’s Law1, and technology
driven, reflecting lower costs of storage, transportation, and processing. On the other hand,
there is an increase in specialization in production and marketing. With this specialization
comes an increase in market size and a shift from autarchy and subsistence consumption to
commercialized agriculture, which is needed to feed both rural areas and rapidly growing
cities.

Changes in relative factor scarcities during agricultural transformation induce change

in the factor bias of new technologies (Binswanger and Ruttan, 1978). As population
increases and land available per capita falls, and as industry develops, there is at first a shift
from extensive technology systems (using land, and saving on labour and capital) toward
either extensive systems that use capital and land and save labour (e.g. Argentina) or toward
intensive systems that save land, use labour, and save capital (initial stages of intensification)
followed (where capital costs decline) by production systems that save land, use labour, and
use capital (e.g., Green Revolution technologies in Asia).

The literature (such as Timmer, 1988, and Hayami and Ruttan, 1985) has focused on
the structural transformation and its impact on the agricultural sector (the upstream segment
of the agrifood system). In this chapter we apply that basic framework to transformation of
markets for agricultural output (adding the downstream segments of the agrifood system).

1
This literature on the structural transformation yields several hypotheses that we support
below.

First, following the paths of specialization and product diversification, we expect a

shift over time from commodity markets toward product markets for specific segments of
consumers and uses.2 Product differentiation becomes important and the marketing system

1. Bennett’s Law states that as income per capita rises, the share of the food budget
spent on starchy staples declines and the share to non-staples such as meat, fish, dairy, fruits,
vegetables, and oils increases (Timmer et al. 1983).
2. This shift can be in any or all segments of the agrifood system;
for example, the farmer might sell an undifferentiated commodity to the
first-stage processor who then differentiates it into various products, or
the farmer might differentiate products.

both supports and creates it. Following the path of specialization and increase in
scale, we expect a shift from atomistic merchants (petty traders, open-air spot markets)
toward segmentation into traditional wholesalers and small-scale retailers, and eventually
toward further segmentation and consolidation into specialized wholesalers and “modern
retailers” including supermarkets and convenience store chains. Scale effects initiate this
expectation but technological change, especially in retail and distribution technology (such as
information technology and other logistics technology change) to lower coordination costs,
with concomitant organizational and institutional changes in the supply chain, will be the
ultimate drivers.

Reduction in the relative cost of capital changes the factor bias of marketing
technology. For example, the adoption of modern logistics platforms by supermarket chains
and large-scale food processing companies allows large-volume procurement. Computer
systems used by leading supermarket chains in most developing countries allow “efficient
consumer response”3 techniques and thus inventory holdings by supermarkets can be
lowered. Telecommunications allow long-range commerce, and changes in shipping and

3
storage technologies in the mid-late 1980s allowed fresh apples, strawberries and asparagus,
for example, to be shipped from the southern hemisphere to northern markets (Codron, 1992).
This new marketing technology reduces transaction costs and increases market integration.
Of course, the diffusion of these technologies is correlated with the “waves” noted above,
hence fastest in the regions of the first and second waves.

The nature of this transformation of markets is further influenced, beyond the demand
and technology drivers just noted, by organizational and institutional changes. Those
changes fall into the following categories, drawing on and applying various strands of the
literature.

Increased competition is driven by policies of market privatization and economic

liberalization, and liberalization of foreign direct investment (FDI). These in turn lead to an
influx of foreign competitors and rising sectoral concentration. When coupled with the
technological change in the retailing and distribution sectors noted above, changes in
“mechanisms of governance” (Williamson 1975, 1996) in agrifood marketing systems are
induced, in two important dimensions:

(1) organizational change including shift from spot markets (including for example
traditional wholesale markets) and traditional brokers to use of specialized/dedicated
wholesalers and various degrees of partial vertical integration, including preferred
supplier lists; and

(2) institutional change in the adoption of contracts and other “vertical restrictions”
(Carlton and Perloff, 2000) and the formulation and imposition of private standards
(of quality and safety of agrifood products) as instruments of strategic market
differentiation and coordination mechanisms (Reardon et al. 2001; Farina and
Reardon 2000, Mainville et al. 2005).

These institutional and organizational changes increase coordination and lower

transaction costs in the chain. The pressure to lower transaction costs and increase system
flexibility to extend the scope of markets and permit a shift from commodity to product
markets induces organizational change in output markets.
DATA COLLECTION METHOD

• Primary Data

To watch the movement of the market price

• Secondary Data

For the collection of data listed the site news channel, magazine and news
paper. Also I interviewed the professionals and staff of the commodity market.

TOOLS USED

1. Arms Ease of Movement

Developed by Richard W. Arms, Jr., this analysis routine expands on Mr. Arms'
Equivolume charting tool by quantifying the shape aspects of the plotted boxes. The purpose
of this quantifying is to determine the ease, or lack thereof, with which a particular issue is
able to move in one direction or another. The ease with which an issue moves is a product of
a ratio between the height (trading range) and width (volume) of the plotted box. In general, a
higher ratio results from a wider box and indicates difficulty of movement. A lower ratio
results from a narrower box and indicates easier movement. This ratio is then related to a
comparison between today's and yesterday's trading-range midpoint values to determine the
ease of movement value (EMV). A moving average is then applied to the EMV value - the
moving average period can be varied in order to make the EMV flexible as a trading tool.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI is a timing system that is best applied to commodity contracts which have
cyclical or seasonal tendencies. CCI does not determine the length of cycles - it is designed to
detect when such cycles begin and end through the use of a statistical analysis which
incorporates a moving average and a divisor reflecting both the possible and actual trading
ranges. Although developed primarily for commodities, the CCI could conceivably be used to
analyze stocks as well.

Formula: CCI=(M-MAVG)/(0.015xDAVG)
M=1/3 (H+L+C) H=Highest price for a period L=Lowest price for a period C=Closing price
for a period MAVG=N-period simple moving average of M DAVG= 1/n x SUMi=1 to n
(ABS (MI-MAVG))

Demand Aggregate

The Demand Aggregate is used similarly as the Demand Index but adds Open Interest
as a consideration in the formula. In its simplest terms, the system confirms price trends by
analyzing concurrent Volume and Open Interest trends. For example, a rise in price, coupled
with rising Volume and Open Interest figures, is considered a bullish indicator.
Interpretations are made with respect to the relationship between the movement of Volume,
Open Interest, and Price.

Demand Index

The Demand Index is a leading indicator which combines volume and price data in
such a way as to indicate a change in price trend. It is designed so that at the very least it is a
coincidental indicator, never a lagging one. The calculation of this index is relatively
complex. This analysis is based on the general observation that volume tends to peak before
prices peak, both in the commodity and stock markets.

Elliott Wave

Elliott wave theory goes beyond traditional charting techniques by providing an

overall view of market movement that helps explain why and where certain chart patterns
develop. The three major aspects of wave analysis are pattern, time and ratio. The basic
Elliott pattern consists of a 5 wave uptrend followed by a three wave correction. Each "leg"
of a wave in turn consists of smaller waves. Elliott waves can be used to successfully define
where the market currently is in relation to "the big picture" but is usually to unreliable for
short term trading.

DATAS

SOYBEAN

2005
Month of: 01/31/2005 O=544.000 H=549.500 L=509.000 C=510.500 V=26633 OI: 0

Month of: 02/28/2005 O=515.250 H=623.500 L=498.500 C=621.250 V=53162 OI: 0

Month of: 03/31/2005 O=613.000 H=691.750 L=610.500 C=646.500 V=72544 OI: 0

Month of: 04/29/2005 O=630.000 H=649.750 L=610.000 C=624.250 V=43315 OI: 0

Month of: 05/31/2005 O=622.250 H=687.000 L=612.500 C=682.000 V=45353 OI: 0

Month of: 06/30/2005 O=676.750 H=775.000 L=657.500 C=675.500 V=112571 OI: 0

Month of: 07/29/2005 O=671.500 H=748.750 L=668.000 C=702.250 V=83520 OI: 0

Month of: 08/31/2005 O=693.500 H=708.500 L=594.750 C=615.500 V=56750 OI: 0

Month of: 09/30/2005 O=599.750 H=613.500 L=556.500 C=562.000 V=20277 OI: 0

Month of: 10/31/2005 O=572.750 H=597.000 L=554.000 C=575.000 V=41854 OI: 0

Month of: 11/30/2005 O=576.000 H=605.000 L=544.250 C=557.000 V=31619 OI: 0

Month of: 12/30/2005 O=558.000 H=627.000 L=555.750 C=607.250 V=49217 OI: 0

2006

Month of: 01/31/2006 O=618.000 H=632.750 L=564.500 C=597.000 V=68565 OI: 0

Month of: 02/28/2006 O=593.000 H=614.000 L=571.000 C=592.500 V=75994 OI: 0

Month of: 03/31/2006 O=592.750 H=623.000 L=575.500 C=610.500 V=49897 OI: 201579

Month of: 04/28/2006 O=608.500 H=621.500 L=589.000 C=627.000 V=64201 OI: 374449

Month of: 05/31/2006 O=623.500 H=644.000 L=615.500 C=614.750 V=60754 OI: 374328

Month of: 06/30/2006 O=615.000 H=641.000 L=604.000 C=630.500 V=78727 OI: 371095

Month of: 07/31/2006 O=637.000 H=650.750 L=607.750 C=612.000 V=91417 OI: 336187

Month of: 08/31/2006 O=610.000 H=618.000 L=562.000 C=569.250 V=356824 OI; 349501

Month of: 09/29/2006 O=569.000 H=576.250 L=550.000 C=562.250 V=453498 OI: 363056

Month of: 10/31/2006 O=562.000 H=657.000 L=555.000 C=644.250 V=952983 OI: 385597
Month of: 11/30/2006 O=643.750 H=695.750 L=641.500 C=685.500 V=779343 OI: 396245

Month of: 12/29/2006 O=686.000 H=687.500 L=642.750 C=683.500 V=803316 OI: 416682

2007

Month of: 01/31/2007 O=681.500 H=732.000 L=645.500 C=719.500 V=1004349

OI: 416905

Month of: 02/28/2007 O=719.500 H=791.000 L=717.500 C=773.250 V=1312205

OI: 481256

Month of: 03/30/2007 O=773.000 H=779.000 L=724.500 C=761.250 V=1329812

OI: 477249

Month of: 04/30/2007 O=756.500 H=786.500 L=708.500 C=728.500 V=1619461

OI: 474236

Month of: 05/31/2007 O=728.500 H=815.750 L=722.000 C=806.250 V=1294470

OI: 468263

Month of: 06/29/2007 O=807.500 H=878.500 L=791.750 C=850.000 V=2060737

OI: 526837

Month of: 07/31/2007 O=854.250 H=913.000 L=808.750 C=834.000 V=1882261

OI: 539803

Month of: 08/31/2007 O=834.500 H=880.500 L=789.000 C=868.000 V=1584020

OI: 499161

Month of: 09/28/2007 O=875.250 H=1017.750 L=872.500 C=991.250 V=1682215

OI: 530832

Month of: 10/31/2007 O=991.500 H=1016.500 L=922.000 C=1010.000 V=2683895

OI: 584393

Month of: 11/30/2007 O=1009.500 H=1114.000 L=964.250 C=1080.000 V=1930755

OI: 587936

Month of: 12/31/2007 O=1083.250 H=1230.000 L=1068.500 C=1199.000 V=2225106

OI: 582628

2008

Month of: 01/31/2008 O=1206.250 H=1320.000 L=1189.500 C=1274.500 V=3068296

OI: 565014

Month of: 02/29/2008 O=1275.250 H=1522.250 L=1275.250 C=1522.000 V=3743354

OI: 600640

Month of: 03/31/2008 O=1519.500 H=1571.000 L=1197.250 C=1197.250 V=2949004

OI: 545643

Month of: 04/30/2008 O=1167.000 H=1398.000 L=1106.500 C=1301.750 V=3854028

OI: 508832

Month of: 05/30/2008 O=1305.000 H=1402.000 L=1226.250 C=1363.500 V=2338896

OI: 460483

Month of: 06/30/2008 O=1357.000 H=1607.250 L=1346.500 C=1605.000 V=3795489

OI: 491517

Month of: 07/31/2008 O=1604.750 H=1663.000 L=1354.250 C=1395.750 V=3314197

OI: 450289

Month of: 08/29/2008 O=1395.000 H=1404.500 L=1186.250 C=1332.000 V=2531062

OI: 391502

Month of: 09/30/2008 O=1306.000 H=1490.000 L=1039.000 C=1045.000 V=2712606

OI: 367687

Month of: 10/31/2008 O=1054.750 H=1066.000 L=825.000 C=925.250 V=3839343

OI: 351880

Month of: 11/28/2008 O=922.750 H=972.000 L=835.250 C=883.000 V=2034594

OI: 316559

Month of: 12/31/2008 O=879.250 H=976.250 L=776.250 C=972.250 V=2750918

OI: 308612

2009

Month of: 01/30/2009 O=965.000 H=1046.500 L=953.750 C=980.000 V=2878802

OI: 3 01987

Month of: 02/27/2009 O=972.500 H=1019.000 L=851.000 C=874.500 V=3040404

OI: 319227

Month of: 03/31/2009 O=869.500 H=981.250 L=843.000 C=952.000 V=2754921

OI: 297329

Month of: 04/30/2009 O=949.000 H=1073.000 L=943.000 C=1070.000 V=3815104

OI: 365049

Month of: 05/29/2009 O=1068.250 H=1200.750 L=1061.250 C=1184.000 V=2794487

OI: 421708

Month of: 06/30/2009 O=1186.000 H=1291.250 L=1150.500 C=1226.250 V=3634055

OI: 461212

Month of: 07/31/2009 O=1228.000 H=1265.500 L=970.250 C=1134.000 V=3104944

OI: 416386

Month of: 08/31/2009 O=1140.500 H=1241.250 L=976.750 C=1100.000 V=2629496

OI: 406349

Month of: 09/30/2009 O=1100.000 H=1114.250 L=901.500 C=927.000 V=2577741

OI: 432844

Month of: 10/30/2009 O=924.750 H=1028.000 L=878.750 C=978.000 V=4244804

OI: 466349

Month of: 11/30/2009 O=968.500 H=1069.250 L=945.000 C=1060.500 V=2923187

OI: 420448

Month of: 12/31/2009 O=1058.500 H=1078.500 L=984.500 C=1039.750 V=3499280

OI: 430528

2010

Month of: 01/29/2010 O=1043.000 H=1065.500 L=913.750 C=914.000 V=2375132

OI: 363877

Month of: 02/26/2010 O=915.250 H=978.750 L=900.000 C=951.000 V=3005117

OI: 373949

Month of: 03/31/2010 O=954.250 H=977.500 L=921.750 C=941.000 V=2794003

OI: 364017

Month of: 04/30/2010 O=940.000 H=1009.500 L=932.500 C=989.500 V=3125250

OI: 391803

Month of: 05/31/2010 O=988.250 H=992.000 L=927.500 C=937.750 V=1928891

OI: 373652

Month of: 06/30/2010 O=939.250 H=973.000 L=926.000 C=948.500 V=2881850

OI: 405317

Month of: 07/30/2010 O=948.500 H=1054.750 L=943.250 C=1052.500 V=2234912

OI: 363841

Month of: 08/31/2010 O=1051.750 H=1080.000 L=994.250 C=1008.000 V=2346083

OI: 449509

Month of: 09/30/2010 O=1008.750 H=1144.000 L=999.500 C=1106.750 V=2241149

OI: 454939

Month of: 10/29/2010 O=1105.500 H=1236.750 L=1042.000 C=1226.000 V=4004764

OI: 490164

Month of: 11/30/2010 O=1230.250 H=1337.750 L=1175.250 C=1243.000 V=3095350

OI: 511648

Month of: 12/31/2010 O=1243.000 H=1394.500 L=1240.250 C=1393.750 V=3477472

OI: 503584

WHEAT

2005

Month of: 01/31/2005 O=307.500 H=310.750 L=288.250 C=289.750 V=7392 OI: 0

Month of: 02/28/2005 O=291.250 H=338.250 L=288.000 C=337.000 V=15067 OI: 0

Month of: 03/31/2005 O=342.000 H=370.000 L=331.250 C=335.000 V=20176 OI: 0

Month of: 04/29/2005 O=331.500 H=335.000 L=309.750 C=328.250 V=21236 OI: 0

Month of: 05/31/2005 O=325.000 H=342.750 L=303.500 C=338.750 V=15989 OI: 0

Month of: 06/30/2005 O=330.500 H=350.500 L=309.500 C=335.250 V=26466 OI: 0

Month of: 07/29/2005 O=333.000 H=352.500 L=324.750 C=333.000 V=21962 OI: 0

Month of: 08/31/2005 O=328.000 H=342.750 L=319.000 C=323.250 V=17189 OI: 0

Month of: 09/30/2005 O=318.500 H=334.500 L=317.750 C=333.500 V=7148 OI: 0

Month of: 10/31/2005 O=346.250 H=348.250 L=317.000 C=317.750 V=11070 OI: 0

Month of: 11/30/2005 O=317.500 H=330.500 L=297.000 C=316.500 V=15187 OI: 0

Month of: 12/30/2005 O=320.250 H=345.750 L=307.500 C=336.000 V=14541 OI: 0

2006

Month of: 01/31/2006 O=340.000 H=347.500 L=322.250 C=345.500 V=16097

OI: 0

Month of: 02/28/2006 O=343.000 H=387.000 L=338.250 C=386.750 V=53716

OI: 0

Month of: 03/31/2006 O=380.750 H=404.500 L=351.000 C=400.250 V=43696

OI: 216665

Month of: 04/28/2006 O=397.250 H=421.000 L=393.500 C=404.500 V=38991

OI: 385692

Month of: 05/31/2006 O=406.000 H=474.000 L=406.000 C=438.500 V=62189

OI: 460122

Month of: 06/30/2006 O=439.750 H=448.500 L=408.000 C=431.500 V=59012

OI: 491357

Month of: 07/31/2006 O=433.750 H=453.000 L=419.000 C=436.250 V=47569

OI: 473086

Month of: 08/31/2006 O=432.750 H=442.000 L=395.000 C=439.000 V=363591

OI: 459932

Month of: 09/29/2006 O=439.000 H=465.000 L=406.000 C=458.000 V=411092

OI: 456060

Month of: 10/31/2006 O=459.250 H=560.000 L=453.000 C=503.000 V=626941

OI: 477208

Month of: 11/30/2006 O=504.250 H=537.500 L=485.000 C=521.500 V=645815

OI: 434789

Month of: 12/29/2006 O=522.500 H=524.750 L=478.500 C=501.000 V=368224

OI: 427120

2007

Month of: 01/31/2007 O=498.000 H=499.250 L=447.750 C=467.500 V=694826

OI: 453036

Month of: 02/28/2007 O=467.500 H=494.000 L=447.750 C=474.500 V=778118

OI: 442284

Month of: 03/30/2007 O=474.250 H=474.250 L=432.250 C=438.000 V=678481

OI: 405783

Month of: 04/30/2007 O=433.750 H=519.750 L=412.000 C=485.500 V=1308222

OI: 378276

Month of: 05/31/2007 O=480.500 H=523.750 L=468.000 C=517.000 V=791315

OI: 363652

Month of: 06/29/2007 O=517.500 H=633.750 L=514.500 C=582.000 V=1433538

OI: 383472

Month of: 07/31/2007 O=583.250 H=664.000 L=562.500 C=630.000 V=1170994

OI: 411204

Month of: 08/31/2007 O=630.250 H=793.500 L=620.000 C=767.000 V=1493278

OI: 405592

Month of: 09/28/2007 O=784.000 H=961.500 L=783.250 C=939.000 V=1078468

OI: 380653

Month of: 10/31/2007 O=953.250 H=959.000 L=790.250 C=808.000 V=1377097

OI: 408545

Month of: 11/30/2007 O=811.000 H=892.000 L=740.750 C=867.000 V=1730678

OI: 413981

Month of: 12/31/2007 O=865.750 H=1009.500 L=845.250 C=885.000 V=1081108

OI: 423248

2008

Month of: 01/31/2008 O=892.500 H=993.000 L=878.500 C=929.500 V=1776021

OI: 443619

Month of: 02/29/2008 O=934.000 H=1334.500 L=933.500 C=1073.000 V=2574804

OI: 441681

Month of: 03/31/2008 O=1078.000 H=1298.000 L=929.000 C=929.000 V=1355633

OI: 400934

Month of: 04/30/2008 O=929.000 H=985.500 L=784.250 C=787.250 V=1569111

OI: 376105

Month of: 05/30/2008 O=792.250 H=824.500 L=730.750 C=761.500 V=1134880

OI: 363121

Month of: 06/30/2008 O=759.500 H=952.750 L=745.750 C=843.500 V=2201618

OI: 359734

Month of: 07/31/2008 O=843.000 H=877.500 L=775.000 C=783.750 V=1392984

OI: 333001

Month of: 08/29/2008 O=784.500 H=932.250 L=746.000 C=779.250 V=2120342

OI: 331799

Month of: 09/30/2008 O=770.000 H=770.000 L=662.500 C=680.000 V=1260365

OI: 295529

Month of: 10/31/2008 O=683.250 H=690.250 L=496.500 C=536.250 V=1178457

OI: 280054

Month of: 11/28/2008 O=538.750 H=587.750 L=496.000 C=542.500 V=1677084

OI: 285066

Month of: 12/31/2008 O=541.750 H=616.000 L=455.000 C=610.750 V=979343

OI: 251844

2009

Month of: 01/30/2009 O=606.250 H=646.250 L=548.250 C=568.000 V=965690

OI: 270366

Month of: 02/27/2009 O=568.000 H=577.000 L=504.500 C=510.500 V=1542536

OI: 298911

Month of: 03/31/2009 O=508.000 H=563.000 L=489.000 C=532.750 V=1273658

OI: 294020

Month of: 04/30/2009 O=527.750 H=572.750 L=500.750 C=524.250 V=1817152

OI: 312331

Month of: 05/29/2009 O=524.750 H=646.250 L=524.500 C=637.250 V=1365859

OI: 304350

Month of: 06/30/2009 O=636.750 H=677.000 L=495.750 C=511.250 V=2428227

OI: 338644

Month of: 07/31/2009 O=517.000 H=553.750 L=483.500 C=528.250 V=1400407

OI: 319467

Month of: 08/31/2009 O=531.750 H=557.500 L=453.500 C=471.000 V=2003170

OI: 330373

Month of: 09/30/2009 O=471.000 H=481.500 L=425.250 C=457.500 V=1117556

OI: 322868

Month of: 10/30/2009 O=452.000 H=574.750 L=439.250 C=494.250 V=1541245

OI: 333798

Month of: 11/30/2009 O=490.000 H=583.500 L=487.750 C=567.500 V=1957150

OI: 339555

Month of: 12/31/2009 O=563.000 H=576.250 L=511.000 C=541.500 V=943385

OI: 323184

2010

Month of: 01/29/2010 O=544.750 H=575.000 L=473.000 C=474.000 V=1086888

OI: 310282

Month of: 02/26/2010 O=476.000 H=509.000 L=466.500 C=506.500 V=1632462

OI: 342794

Month of: 03/31/2010 O=508.000 H=513.000 L=450.000 C=450.500 V=1279987

OI: 393047

Month of: 04/30/2010 O=452.500 H=502.500 L=447.000 C=491.750 V=1830393

OI: 394588

Month of: 05/31/2010 O=493.500 H=506.250 L=456.250 C=457.750 V=1420508

OI: 447663

Month of: 06/30/2010 O=457.750 H=477.250 L=425.500 C=464.750 V=2574465

OI: 471734

Month of: 07/30/2010 O=464.250 H=663.000 L=461.000 C=661.500 V=2224624

OI: 412792

Month of: 08/31/2010 O=660.000 H=841.000 L=645.000 C=652.500 V=3287717

OI: 483924

Month of: 09/30/2010 O=654.250 H=757.000 L=651.000 C=674.000 V=1617256

OI: 490663

Month of: 10/29/2010 O=674.000 H=739.750 L=643.500 C=717.250 V=1564775

OI: 496862

Month of: 11/30/2010 O=724.500 H=760.750 L=617.750 C=650.250 V=2481390

OI: 511426

Month of: 12/31/2010 O=653.000 H=806.250 L=650.500 C=794.250 V=1334547

OI: 440139

CORN

2005

Month of: 01/31/2005 O=203.000 H=208.000 L=195.000 C=195.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 02/28/2005 O=195.000 H=211.000 L=194.000 C=211.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 03/31/2005 O=210.000 H=229.000 L=204.000 C=210.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 04/29/2005 O=210.000 H=214.000 L=204.000 C=204.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 05/31/2005 O=205.000 H=227.000 L=195.000 C=221.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 06/30/2005 O=226.000 H=237.000 L=210.000 C=232.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 07/29/2005 O=233.000 H=263.000 L=212.000 C=236.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 08/31/2005 O=238.000 H=239.000 L=203.000 C=203.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 09/30/2005 O=203.000 H=210.000 L=198.000 C=205.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 10/31/2005 O=205.000 H=208.000 L=197.000 C=197.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 11/30/2005 O=197.000 H=197.000 L=189.000 C=189.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 12/30/2005 O=190.000 H=216.000 L=185.000 C=215.000 V=0 OI: 0

2006

Month of: 01/31/2006 O=215.000 H=220.000 L=204.000 C=218.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 02/28/2006 O=218.000 H=227.000 L=215.000 C=227.000 V=0 OI: 0

Month of: 03/31/2006 O=228.000 H=276.500 L=219.000 C=276.500 V=61337

OI: 927720

Mo nth of: 04/28/2006 O=272.750 H=284.000 L=272.750 C=280.750 V=117591

OI: 1183042

Month of: 05/31/2006 O=279.000 H=297.000 L=271.750 C=287.750 V=159873

OI: 1282078

Month of: 06/30/2006 O=287.500 H=293.750 L=259.500 C=272.000 V=208219

OI: 1327418

Month of: 07/31/2006 O=274.000 H=293.000 L=265.000 C=269.750 V=253451

OI: 1358807

Month of: 08/31/2006 O=270.000 H=279.500 L=248.000 C=262.750 V=1105021

OI: 1348220

Month of: 09/29/2006 O=262.500 H=280.500 L=250.250 C=275.250 V=1498004

OI: 1303476
Month of: 10/31/2006 O=276.250 H=346.250 L=275.500 C=334.750 V=1977899

OI: 1314145

Month of: 11/30/2006 O=334.500 H=393.500 L=334.500 C=390.500 V=2925452

OI: 1406637

Month of: 12/29/2006 O=389.750 H=392.000 L=362.000 C=390.250 V=1444962

OI: 1384644

2007

Month of: 01/31/2007 O=389.250 H=420.500 L=352.500 C=404.000 V=3176720

OI: 1446800

Month of: 02/28/2007 O=404.250 H=437.250 L=391.500 C=425.250 V=2927109

OI: 1501214

Month of: 03/30/2007 O=425.750 H=428.500 L=374.500 C=374.500 V=3263863

OI: 1429844

Month of: 04/30/2007 O=357.000 H=385.250 L=343.000 C=358.000 V=4146743

OI: 1352011

Month of: 05/31/2007 O=364.750 H=395.750 L=343.500 C=390.250 V=3207206

OI: 1260694

Month of: 06/29/2007 O=390.000 H=428.750 L=323.250 C=329.500 V=4057003

OI: 1186016

Month of: 07/31/2007 O=330.000 H=348.250 L=308.500 C=325.750 V=3120948

OI: 1215673

Month of: 08/31/2007 O=327.000 H=353.000 L=309.500 C=324.000 V=3072081

OI: 1136357
Month of: 09/28/2007 O=327.500 H=389.500 L=319.750 C=373.000 V=2345362

OI: 1112487

Month of: 10/31/2007 O=373.000 H=380.000 L=335.000 C=375.500 V=2554440

OI: 1165974

Month of: 11/30/2007 O=375.500 H=394.000 L=366.500 C=384.500 V=3521585

OI: 1202996

Month of: 12/31/2007 O=383.750 H=457.000 L=382.250 C=455.500 V=2418911

OI: 1212609

2008

Month of: 01/31/2008 O=456.250 H=519.250 L=456.000 C=501.250 V=3837181

OI: 1384858

Month of: 02/29/2008 O=503.000 H=547.750 L=491.000 C=546.000 V=5777015

OI: 1466769

Month of: 03/31/2008 O=546.000 H=588.000 L=503.250 C=567.250 V=4330773

OI: 1424797

Month of: 04/30/2008 O=570.500 H=616.000 L=561.250 C=600.250 V=6609685

OI: 1448015

Month of: 05/30/2008 O=602.000 H=627.000 L=572.000 C=599.250 V=4994051

OI: 1412031

Month of: 06/30/2008 O=597.000 H=765.000 L=595.750 C=724.750 V=7723099

OI: 1398971

Month of: 07/31/2008 O=722.000 H=751.500 L=543.750 C=587.500 V=5770042

OI: 1283866
Month of: 08/29/2008 O=589.000 H=608.750 L=485.250 C=568.250 V=5137137

OI: 1173321

Month of: 09/30/2008 O=560.250 H=579.750 L=485.500 C=487.500 V=4111748

OI: 1054663

Month of: 10/31/2008 O=494.000 H=500.000 L=364.000 C=401.500 V=4788651

OI: 1000103

Month of: 11/28/2008 O=398.000 H=422.000 L=336.500 C=349.500 V=4627891

OI: 972497

Month of: 12/31/2008 O=350.000 H=423.750 L=290.000 C=407.000 V=3517660

OI: 825467

2009

Month of: 01/30/2009 O=404.000 H=429.000 L=358.750 C=379.000 V=3280898

OI: 813591

Month of: 02/27/2009 O=378.000 H=383.000 L=342.000 C=350.750 V=4732140

OI: 807842

Month of: 03/31/2009 O=350.000 H=406.000 L=337.250 C=404.750 V=3996660

OI: 775136

Month of: 04/30/2009 O=401.500 H=407.500 L=360.500 C=396.250 V=4887306

OI: 831891

Month of: 05/29/2009 O=395.000 H=437.000 L=390.000 C=436.250 V=4446321

OI: 868618

Month of: 06/30/2009 O=434.250 H=450.000 L=337.750 C=347.750 V=5979538

OI: 980814
Month of: 07/31/2009 O=346.000 H=369.000 L=304.000 C=339.500 V=5153002

OI: 902576

Month of: 08/31/2009 O=342.000 H=365.000 L=304.250 C=326.250 V=4784364

OI: 869961

Month of: 09/30/2009 O=325.000 H=347.750 L=296.750 C=344.000 V=3504068

OI: 857154

Month of: 10/30/2009 O=341.250 H=413.500 L=327.500 C=366.000 V=4512540

OI: 886892

Month of: 11/30/2009 O=362.000 H=409.500 L=359.250 C=402.750 V=5622919

OI: 958767

Month of: 12/31/2009 O=400.750 H=418.750 L=363.750 C=414.500 V=3305963

OI: 886228

2010

Month of: 01/29/2010 O=415.750 H=426.250 L=355.250 C=356.500 V=3481684

OI: 902404

Month of: 02/26/2010 O=356.250 H=380.000 L=347.500 C=378.000 V=4493043

OI: 913587

Month of: 03/31/2010 O=378.000 H=381.000 L=344.250 C=345.000 V=3779470

OI: 935044

Month of: 04/30/2010 O=345.250 H=370.000 L=343.500 C=366.250 V=5825998

OI: 953887

Month of: 05/31/2010 O=366.000 H=379.000 L=353.500 C=359.000 V=3726496

OI: 963262
Month of: 06/30/2010 O=358.750 H=367.250 L=324.500 C=354.250 V=5942573

OI: 1047466

Month of: 07/30/2010 O=354.000 H=397.750 L=351.500 C=392.750 V=4082562

OI: 890734

Month of: 08/31/2010 O=391.500 H=429.500 L=385.250 C=424.500 V=6666299

OI: 1147424

Month of: 09/30/2010 O=424.750 H=528.750 L=423.250 C=495.750 V=5692692

OI: 1145127

Month of: 10/29/2010 O=494.750 H=588.000 L=454.250 C=582.000 V=6317850

OI: 1157174

Month of: 11/30/2010 O=585.000 H=605.000 L=506.250 C=530.000 V=7954475

OI: 1325457

Month of: 12/31/2010 O=530.750 H=630.000 L=529.000 C=629.000 V=3678281

OI: 1173620

OATS

2005

Month of: 01/31/2005 O=156.250 H=170.000 L=156.000 C=169.750 V=155 OI: 0

Month of: 02/28/2005 O=167.500 H=175.000 L=156.500 C=161.500 V=122 OI: 0

Month of: 03/31/2005 O=161.500 H=176.250 L=148.000 C=171.500 V=237 OI: 0

Month of: 04/29/2005 O=161.500 H=173.000 L=142.000 C=142.000 V=303 OI: 3858

Month of: 05/31/2005 O=141.000 H=141.500 L=131.000 C=139.000 V=386 OI: 7555

Month of: 06/30/2005 O=135.750 H=156.250 L=135.000 C=150.000 V=348 OI: 7371

Month of: 07/29/2005 O=139.500 H=182.000 L=139.500 C=169.000 V=271 OI: 6760
Month of: 08/31/2005 O=162.750 H=166.000 L=145.000 C=151.000 V=179 OI: 6449

Month of: 09/30/2005 O=155.500 H=162.000 L=143.500 C=154.000 V=127 OI: 5798

Month of: 10/31/2005 O=162.000 H=173.000 L=158.500 C=162.750 V=109 OI: 6722

Month of: 11/30/2005 O=159.000 H=184.000 L=148.250 C=179.000 V=158 OI: 7383

Month of: 12/30/2005 O=174.500 H=215.000 L=148.250 C=195.500 V=147 OI: 8500

2006

Month of: 01/31/2006 O=195.000 H=199.750 L=184.500 C=193.000 V=308 OI: 8435

Month of: 02/28/2006 O=191.000 H=203.000 L=185.000 C=192.000 V=271 OI: 11077

Month of: 03/31/2006 O=185.500 H=186.500 L=166.000 C=169.750 V=126 OI: 10901

Month of: 04/28/2006 O=169.000 H=183.000 L=169.000 C=183.000 V=215 OI: 10943

Month of: 05/31/2006 O=186.500 H=202.000 L=185.000 C=193.000 V=337 OI: 13412

Month of: 06/30/2006 O=196.000 H=209.000 L=192.500 C=199.000 V=305 OI: 14095

Month of: 07/31/2006 O=206.000 H=211.000 L=199.000 C=205.000 V=676 OI: 13945

Month of: 08/31/2006 O=204.000 H=204.000 L=190.000 C=198.000 V=2636 OI: 11587

Month of: 09/29/2006 O=198.000 H=217.000 L=196.000 C=213.000 V=5103 OI: 11124

Month of: 10/31/2006 O=216.000 H=253.000 L=214.000 C=245.000 V=6026 OI: 13514

Month of: 11/30/2006 O=246.000 H=289.750 L=244.500 C=269.000 V=10610 OI: 14748

Month of: 12/29/2006 O=269.750 H=280.750 L=255.500 C=271.000 V=5506 OI: 13863

2007

Month of: 01/31/2007 O=271.250 H=279.500 L=246.500 C=257.250 V=8212 OI: 16111

Month of: 02/28/2007 O=257.500 H=261.750 L=237.000 C=253.000 V=12885 OI: 18471

Month of: 03/30/2007 O=252.000 H=302.000 L=238.500 C=276.500 V=12932 OI: 19257

Month of: 04/30/2007 O=275.000 H=287.000 L=251.500 C=261.000 V=17246 OI: 19414
Month of: 05/31/2007 O=262.500 H=286.750 L=248.000 C=281.000 V=9674 OI: 18147

Month of: 06/29/2007 O=284.750 H=300.000 L=255.000 C=278.500 V=14874 OI: 17098

Month of: 07/31/2007 O=273.750 H=297.000 L=235.000 C=261.250 V=13408 OI: 14944

Month of: 08/31/2007 O=261.000 H=264.750 L=235.000 C=242.000 V=10471 OI: 13547

Month of: 09/28/2007 O=257.000 H=289.750 L=251.000 C=289.750 V=11918 OI: 14323

Month of: 10/31/2007 O=286.750 H=290.000 L=267.750 C=287.750 V=12492 OI: 14412

Month of: 11/30/2007 O=286.000 H=300.750 L=264.000 C=269.500 V=23113 OI: 13222

Month of: 12/31/2007 O=269.000 H=314.500 L=260.000 C=306.750 V=11551 OI: 10910

2008

Month of: 01/31/2008 O=306.250 H=351.000 L=303.750 C=329.250 V=34493 OI: 13682

Month of: 02/29/2008 O=329.250 H=423.750 L=323.000 C=422.000 V=61392 OI: 14815

Month of: 03/31/2008 O=426.000 H=438.500 L=334.000 C=371.250 V=45634 OI: 14773

Month of: 04/30/2008 O=368.000 H=405.750 L=352.000 C=377.000 V=49594 OI: 15114

Month of: 05/30/2008 O=378.500 H=414.500 L=372.500 C=382.000 V=39398 OI: 15974

Month of: 06/30/2008 O=380.000 H=444.000 L=376.250 C=444.000 V=53670 OI: 16820

Month of: 07/31/2008 O=444.000 H=458.000 L=375.500 C=377.500 V=28740 OI: 15861

Month of: 08/29/2008 O=381.000 H=389.750 L=336.250 C=345.250 V=34430 OI: 15046

Month of: 09/30/2008 O=336.000 H=350.000 L=313.500 C=316.000 V=20874 OI: 14763

Month of: 10/31/2008 O=317.750 H=324.750 L=219.000 C=231.500 V=33937 OI: 15529

Month of: 11/28/2008 O=237.500 H=250.000 L=191.000 C=201.500 V=25688 OI: 15150

Month of: 12/31/2008 O=194.500 H=238.250 L=184.500 C=210.000 V=21331 OI: 16909

2009

Month of: 01/30/2009 O=213.500 H=234.000 L=196.000 C=205.000 V=18796 OI: 16605
Month of: 02/27/2009 O=204.000 H=205.000 L=162.000 C=184.500 V=36750 OI: 17011

Month of: 03/31/2009 O=176.000 H=202.500 L=174.000 C=193.000 V=21949 OI: 14456

Month of: 04/30/2009 O=194.250 H=203.000 L=172.000 C=194.000 V=37082 OI: 15238

Month of: 05/29/2009 O=194.250 H=260.000 L=194.250 C=251.000 V=28178 OI: 13431

Month of: 06/30/2009 O=249.750 H=264.000 L=195.500 C=214.750 V=46015 OI: 14495

Month of: 07/31/2009 O=216.500 H=225.500 L=188.250 C=198.000 V=25140 OI: 13915

Month of: 08/31/2009 O=199.750 H=224.000 L=192.000 C=210.750 V=28272 OI: 13745

Month of: 09/30/2009 O=212.000 H=238.500 L=186.750 C=233.000 V=23601 OI: 13774

Month of: 10/30/2009 O=233.000 H=268.000 L=216.250 C=254.500 V=32900 OI: 13609

Month of: 11/30/2009 O=253.000 H=273.000 L=248.000 C=254.500 V=32908 OI: 12989

Month of: 12/31/2009 O=254.000 H=281.000 L=242.000 C=277.000 V=20919 OI: 10960

2010

Month of: 01/29/2010 O=276.250 H=280.250 L=218.000 C=228.000 V=26830 OI: 9984

Month of: 02/26/2010 O=225.000 H=238.000 L=216.000 C=221.000 V=29075 OI: 11043

Month of: 03/31/2010 O=221.750 H=225.500 L=205.750 C=208.000 V=25278 OI: 13004

Month of: 04/30/2010 O=211.250 H=220.000 L=193.500 C=205.250 V=32051 OI: 14399

Month of: 05/31/2010 O=208.000 H=211.000 L=188.250 C=191.000 V=19866 OI: 14684

Month of: 06/30/2010 O=193.000 H=281.500 L=190.500 C=255.000 V=53833 OI: 15384

Month of: 07/30/2010 O=258.500 H=274.250 L=238.500 C=271.000 V=23847 OI: 8027

Month of: 08/31/2010 O=268.500 H=297.250 L=257.250 C=265.750 V=30705 OI: 10234

Month of: 09/30/2010 O=273.750 H=368.500 L=267.750 C=342.000 V=31715 OI: 12039

Month of: 10/29/2010 O=341.000 H=388.000 L=330.250 C=368.000 V=33468 OI: 13234

Month of: 11/30/2010 O=370.250 H=386.750 L=333.000 C=340.000 V=40975 OI: 13857
Month of: 12/31/2010 O=339.750 H=407.500 L=335.000 C=394.000 V=25605 OI: 12111

OBJECTIVES

• To identify the factor affecting grains price movement in commodity market.

• To identify the future movement of grains in commodity market.

• To identify the reaction in the price fluctuation in commodity market.

• To observe the commodity product fluctuation during economic crises