Asia Pacific: Economic Review February 2011
Specter of inflation haunts central banks across the region
sian economies recorded
A some of their
performance for the full
best
year 2010. In particular, Southeast
Asian nations witnessed a banner
year, clocking their best
performance in recent memory.
However, although the full year
record was exemplary, growth in
the final months of 2010 began to
cool off. This was clearly evident
when examining the slower pace
of growth in almost all Asian
economies in the fourth quarter
compared to the third. While a
rising currency continued to
trouble export-based economies,
inflation haunted almost all central
banks in the region. Central banks,
having to choose between raising
interest rates and attracting foreign
capital, opted to hike rates. With
the exception of the Philippines,
Thomas White International

At a Glance
Japan: Exports slow in the wake of higher inflation in
China, Japan’s major trading partner. Rating agencies lower
debt quality, citing lack of clear policies to address the
country’s debt position.
 China: Rising inflation bites consumers even as the Middle
Kingdom continues to face criticism from G20 countries
over its currency policy.
 India: The annual budget promises reforms in social sector
spending even as inflation and subsequent interest rates cast
a shadow over strong economic growth.
 South Korea: Concern over currency appreciation trumps
inflation worries, preventing an interest rate hike.
 Australia: The central bank is not yet convinced that
reconstruction efforts could stoke inflation over the next
couple of months.
 Malaysia: Bumper palm oil and rubber production, in the
wake of higher prices of such commodities, will likely give
the economy a shot in the arm.
 Indonesia: Investment-led growth to boost an economy
traditionally powered by consumption.
1 www.thomaswhite.com
all major Asian economies increased interest rates from the lows of 2009. In fact, many of them
had started raising them well over a year ago. In an attempt to mollify exporters, who become
unnerved with the currency appreciation that accompanies interest rate rises, some central banks
resorted to capital control initiatives. However, such measures have largely failed to curb the rise
of currencies.

Japan: Sputtering exports and political gridlock paint a cloudy picture

Japan’s economy, greatly dependent on exports, surprised the markets with a trade deficit
for the month of January. Japan’s export machinery was humming over the last six of months
of 2010, thanks to robust demand for the country’s products such as high tech precision
equipment and cars. The past year was particularly good for Japanese exports, rising 24.4% to
$809 billion. It was also the first year-over-year rise in exports in three years. In fact, in early
February, Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan, projected a rosy picture of the economy, with
the view that exports will lift the country’s output. However, the enthusiasm was dampened by
January’s trade deficit figure of $5.7 billion, the first in nearly 22 months.

The deficit was due to slowing exports to one Japan’s largest trading partners, China. The
Middle Kingdom, which is battling inflation, imported much less than expected and as a result
Japan’s exports grew just 1.4%, much below the expected 7%. Although the slowdown at first
was viewed as temporary, the rise in oil prices now could make the slump prolonged for the

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majority of Japan’s trading partners. This paints a cloudy picture for Japan’s exports for the next
couple of months.

The domestic situation in Japan too is unforgiving. The country’s government is among the
most heavily indebted in the world, with debt amounting to over 200% of the country’s
GDP. Its population is rapidly aging, putting ever more pressure on the country’s finances.
However, Japan’s political parties are in a quandary when it comes to addressing the
uncomfortable truth. Already the country has had four prime ministers in a period of five years.
Although the current Prime Minister of Japan, Naoto Kan, has come up with some hard-hitting
solutions to improve the fiscal situation, such as raising the sales tax and bringing in reforms to
the farm sector, his policies face stiff resistance from the country’s law makers. The Prime
minister also lacks absolute support among his own party for these policies. Consequently, the
possibility of his resignation and even an election in Japan cannot be ruled out.

The situation, however, is costing Japan its debt rating. While S&P downgraded Japan’s debt
from AA to AA- in January, Moody’s announced that it was cutting the outlook on Japan’s
bond rating from stable to negative, primarily due to the nation’s dearth of political will to come
up with a solution for the pressing deficit problem. Moody’s noted that although the Japanese
economy and markets have the mettle to withstand the deficit problem, it is the lack of policy
that has prompted the cut in the outlook.

China: Battling inflation and bringing property market to ground

China embarked on a series of measures to attack persistent inflation and an overheating

property market. The country’s central bank, People’s Bank of China (PBC), raised the bank
reserve requirement ratio for the second time this year by a 0.5 percentage point. As a result,
bank reserve ratios climbed to 20% in mid-February, one of the highest in the world.

Earlier in the month, the bank also raised the benchmark lending rate to 6.06% from
5.81%. This was the second such raise in the current year. PBC started hiking its benchmark
lending rates after a three-year hiatus in October 2010. Throughout this period, the Bank took an
accommodative monetary policy stance, in hopes of healing an economy that was hurt by the
global financial crisis.

The newfound hawkishness from the Middle Kingdom takes a direct aim at stubbornly high
inflation that reportedly rose 4.9% in January. Although the spike in inflation was not as high
as the 5.1% rise in November 2010, a 28-month high, it was still outside the comfort zone of 4%.

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But the fight between Chinese authorities and inflation is likely to continue for some time
as inflation is being powered by supply constraints. For instance, as of mid-January, political
upheaval in Egypt and protests in Libya had pushed oil prices to over $110 a barrel and diesel
and gasoline prices have become dearer by 4.1% and 4.5% in mid-February. Making matters
worse, Shandong, a major wheat growing province in China is experiencing a severe rainfall
shortage, which could push food prices up. In all, further interest rate increases may be in the
cards for China.

Persistent inflation also seems to be taking a toll on China’s manufacturing sector. The
HSBC preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index, a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity,
dropped to 51.5 in February from 54.5 in January, primarily due to a rise in both input and output
costs. This is the first such fall in over the last seven months.

China is also watching its sensitive real estate markets with great concern, as construction
accounts for a fourth of its economy. In order to cool the property sector, the country seems to
be dabbling with the idea of a property tax along with a hike in the down payment buyers must
make for second homes. The property tax was introduced in the two cities of Chongqing and
Shanghai on a trial basis. However, rather fearful of antagonizing its active middle class, the
property rates have been pegged at an annual rate of around 0.4-0.6% of the property’ value in
Chongqing and 0.5-1.2% in Shanghai. These rates are quite low and are expected to be of little
help in handling the fast-paced growth in the property markets.

In other developments, the West continued to pound China on its currency policy. In a mid-
February meeting of finance ministers and central bankers of G20 countries in Paris, a consensus
was reached to start devising tools that would help address the issue of a global trade imbalance.
Even countries like Brazil and India, which have been reluctant to criticize China’s currency
policy thus far, sided with the West this time. The main reason for this initiative is the growing
belief that the root cause for the financial crisis of 2008 lay in the global trade imbalance arising
from China. Such tools would monitor deficit levels, savings rates and trade imbalances. In turn,
this information will serve Western economies who seek to put pressure on China over
controlling its currency.

On the other hand, if China’s inflation persists around 4-6% developed economies could benefit,
at least for the time being. The specter of inflation could pressure China into allowing its
currency to appreciate, which would make exports pricey and bring down global imbalances.

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India: Fiscal deficit and inflation could play spoilsport

India’s red-hot economy, which expanded 8.2% in the fourth quarter, faces two significant
hurdles- inflation and the fiscal deficit. Sooner than later, both these problems could make life
difficult for the world’s second most populous country. Finalized in late February, India’s
budget, an annual affair, provides some clues on the country’s fiscal deficit woes.

India’s fiscal deficit reached nearly 5.1% for the past year compared to a targeted 5.5%.
Although this seems positive at first sight, a lower fiscal deficit was achieved primarily from the
money that the government was due after the auctioning of 3rd generation spectrum to the
telecom industry, and less due to a cut in wasteful spending. Nonetheless, the government is
realizing that increased social sector spending is burning a hole in its finances. Although the
Indian government has allocated more for social sector spending, it is trying to devise a better
mechanism to deliver these social benefits. Instead of its past method of subsidizing a number of
products, which fuels corruption and theft of resources, the government believes the direct
transfer of cash to its poor citizens would serve the purpose better. The government also believes
that the new mechanism will reduce the burden on its own finances.

On the other hand, inflation is likely to continue to haunt the country. India, which imports
almost 80% of the oil that it uses, is especially vulnerable. Further, the failure to revoke some of
the fiscal stimulus measures, such as excise duty cuts that were instituted during the global
slowdown of 2008, is likely to fuel more consumption. In turn, this may push up inflation.

One more worrying trend for the India economy is its waning competitiveness in attracting
foreign direct investment (FDI) when compared to other Asian economies. India’s FDI had
declined 22% in 2010 compared to 2009 levels. It was also the second year of decline in FDI for
India. While a part of the slowdown in investment is attributed to the global slowdown resulting
from the financial crisis, most other Asian economies started attracting increased direct
investment in 2010.

South Korea: Central Bank does a balancing act

Boosted by strong exports and buoyant consumer spending, South Korea’s GDP expanded
by over 6.1% for 2010, the country’s fastest pace of expansion since 2002. However, the pace
of the expansion seems to have slowed. Although the economy grew 0.5% for the fourth quarter,
the growth was slower than the 0.7% experienced during the third quarter. This slowing growth
can be partially blamed on a decline in corporate investments, which dropped 3% in the fourth
quarter compared to the previous quarter, their lowest level in nearly two years.

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Steadily climbing inflation seems to be the culprit behind the slowing investments. Inflation
jumped from 3.5% in December to over 4.1% in January this year, a figure that is outside the
Bank of Korea’s comfort zone of 2-4%. This, coupled with a fall in consumer confidence for the
second consecutive month in January, prompted the central bank to hike interest rates the first
month of the year. Throughout 2010, the central bank raised interest rates thrice, from a record
low of 2% two years ago to the current rate of 2.75%. However, contrary to market expectations
and despite a “war on inflation” decry from the country’s president Lee Myung Bak, the central
bank left interest rates unchanged in its February policy meeting. This was partly due to the fear
that hiking interest rates would attract strong capital inflows, and in turn make the currency
stronger.

A stronger currency would make Korean exports, which account for nearly one half of the
country’s economy, more expensive, and this would likely undermine overall growth. Even
though exports rose 46% in January from the year-ago period, China, the country’s largest
trading partner, is expected to import less in the coming months. South Korea has already started
witnessing a narrowing current account surplus. And with oil prices shooting up, the country
should experience a further fall in its surplus.

Australia and New Zealand: Natural calamities rob off growth

Australia’s economy, which was ravaged by floods in January, experienced more trouble from
forest fires in Western Australia in February. The two natural disasters put together are expected
to wipe away nearly 1.5 percentage points of growth off Australia’s economy from the fourth
quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of this year, according to National Australia Bank.

Nevertheless, Australia’s central bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, estimates a strong

recovery starting from the second quarter of 2011, as coal production picks up steam and
reconstruction efforts gain momentum. Consequently, the central bank raised its GDP forecast to
4.25% in February, from its earlier estimates of 3.75%.

Although inflation remained around 3.6% in February, the central bank announced that it would
not raise interest rates from the current 4.75%, believing that reconstruction spending in the
flood-hit Queensland region will not stoke inflation. Further interest rates hikes are not
anticipated before June this year.

But this reasoning might change in the immediate future. Australian employers added 24,000
more employees for the month of January in contrast to a forecast figure of 17,000. The flood-hit
Queensland region seems to have lost fewer jobs than expected. Further, a number of banks feel

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that the country’s unemployment figure will fall below 5% in the coming weeks. Further
decreases in the jobless figures could stoke wage inflation and trigger an interest rate rise.

However, the central bank’s reluctance to raise interest rates in the past few months may be
aiding the country’s manufacturing and export segments by preventing a further rise in the value
of the Australian dollar. The interest rate differentials between major countries such as Australia
and the U.S. has widened significantly over the last two years. Consequently, the value of
Australia’s currency has matched that of the U.S. and hampered the non-resource intensive
manufacturing industry.

Meanwhile, New Zealand suffered its worst earthquake in nearly 80 years. The cost of
rebuilding Christchurch, the city that bore the brunt of the calamity, is expected to cost nearly
$15 billion. With this, the country’s GDP growth is forecasted to slow in the first half of 2011.

However, the fundamentals of the country’s economy seem to be intact. New Zealand’s export
industry could benefit handsomely as the global demand for food and dairy products is zooming.
Furthermore, the country’s banks appear willing to finance the rebuilding of the devastated cities
as well. This, along with strong tax receipts and the upcoming sporting events that the country
will host, should help New Zealand’s economy.

Indonesia and Philippines: Indonesia records investments to help diversify

economy; Philippines inflation still under control

Indonesia’s economy expanded over 6.9% during the fourth quarter of 2010. The country,
driven more by private consumption and less dependent on exports than some of its neighbors,
has started attracting new investments as well. For the full year 2010, Indonesia’s GDP grew
6.1%, with consumption contributing 2.7% and investments representing 2.0%. Consumer
confidence too has risen substantially over the past one and a half years, touching 113.9 this
January, the highest since August 2009.

Nonetheless, inflation is skyrocketing, threatening to undermine the strong growth achieved over
the past two years. For the month of January 2011, consumer prices hit a 22-month high of over
7.02% from 6.96% in December. This was partly because Indonesia was one of the last countries
to raise interest rates. Until recently, the Bank of Indonesia, the country’s central bank, was
largely in favor of using an accommodative monetary policy to improve the country’s
employment figures. However, with inflation expectations gathering momentum, the bank raised
interest rates in February by 25 basis points to 6.75%. This was the first interest rate hike in the
past two and a half years. But interest rate increases are expected to continue throughout the year
with rates forecast to touch 8% by the end of 2011.

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Meanwhile, political stability in Indonesia and a low debt to GDP ratio have made the country
one of the largest destinations for FDI in Southeast Asia. Recognizing the country’s potential,
rating agencies have raised the country’s investment rating. In January, Moody’s raised
Indonesia’s debt rating to the highest level since the 1997 Asian currency crisis, while Fitch,
another rating agency, upgraded Indonesia’s debt to BB+, just a step below the investment grade.
When it comes to investment, this puts Indonesia in the same league as other emerging countries
such as Brazil and Turkey.

Even before the ratings upgrade, Indonesia had already been attracting huge investments. India,
in particular, has emerged a strong investor in Indonesia and the two countries finalized deals
worth $15 billion last month, to improve infrastructure covering ports and air terminals. With
Indonesia planning to seek bids for around 50 oil and gas exploration blocks, the country’s
energy output too could rise in the medium term.

Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the economy accelerated, riding on strong growth in business and
consumer spending. While the fourth quarter GDP growth was clocked at 7.1%, the annual
growth rate touched 7.3% in 2010. This is the fastest pace of growth since 1976, when Ferdinand
Marcos was Philippines’s president. Despite the robust growth, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, the
country’s central bank, has been reluctant to raise interest rates, while every other country in the
region has done so. As recently as February 10, the Bank ruled out an interest rate hike, pointing
out that inflation was well within the mandated limit of 3-5%.

Thailand: Rising interest rates and political problems sour investment climate

In line with the growth trends across the Asia-Pacific economies, Thailand’s economy
registered substantial growth for the year 2010. For the full year, the country’s GDP grew
7.8%, the fastest pace in nearly 15 years. However, the expansion through the year was quiet
uneven. Although the growth in the December quarter reached 1.2%, the September quarter
witnessed a technical recession, primarily due to the political unrest that soured the investment
climate.

The growth in the December quarter was powered by a 3.8% rise in private consumption, a 4.8%
gain in manufacturing, and a 6.4% jump in total investments. However, the sustained growth in
the economy was accompanied by higher prices, and this has forced the country’s central bank to
raise interest rates four times in the last nine months up to around 2.25%.

For the current year, the economy is expected to expand 4.6%, on the back of contributions from
private consumption and agriculture. However, compared to some of its neighbors, Thailand’s
economy still remains subject to considerable political risk. The political turmoil resulting from

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allegations of corruption in the 2007 general election continues to disrupt the normal functioning
of the country’s capital. Such protests have claimed nearly 100 lives over the past three years.
The country’s sitting Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has called for an election in June this year
to put an end to demonstrations that have challenged his authority. However, in a populist move,
the Prime Minister has doled out a number of subsidies before calling for an election. This will
likely make the central bank’s job of controlling prices tougher.

Hong Kong: Worries over relentless rise in property prices

Although Hong Kong’s economy has expanded by over 6.2% during the fourth quarter of
last year, worries loom over the return of inflation. Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to that of
the U.S. dollar, and indirectly depends on the monetary policy set by the U.S. As such, property
prices in Hong Kong have soared, with interest rates in the U.S. so low over the past years. In
fact, according to a London-based property broker, home prices in Hong Kong are 55% higher
than in London, making Hong Kong the most expensive place to buy property.

As well, Chinese investors have poured money into Hong Kong’s property sector in recent times,
pushing up property prices to new heights. Property prices in Hong Kong, which hit a low in
early 2009 due to the financial crisis, have risen 60% since then, in an impressive comeback.
Currently, the Hang Seng Property Index, which tracks the country’s largest property developers,
is up 76% from the bottom of the market in 2009. A number of land brokers estimate that
property prices can only head north in the next 18 months.

However, skyrocketing property prices are a cause of worry for the central bank as they stoke
inflation. Donald Tsang, Hong Kong’s chief executive, has pledged to make at least 20,000
housing units available to cool down property prices. Hong Kong’s economy is anticipated to
expand 4-5% in 2011, while inflation is expected to linger around 5%.

Malaysia and Singapore: Rising commodity prices buoy Malaysian economy;

Singapore expands on growth in trade & tourism

Malaysia’s GDP expanded 7.2% for the year 2010, marking an end to an eventful year of
robust growth in domestic consumption and investment. Emerging from the financial crisis
of 2008, Malaysia completed five continuous quarters of expansion, clocking 4.8% growth in
December. Further, 2010’s growth was the fastest in over a decade.

However, the strong growth in the economy has the country’s central bank, Bank Negara
concerned over inflation. In December 2010, inflation touched 2.2%, a 22 month high. Malaysia
was one of the first countries to raise interest rates in South East Asia. Between March and July

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2010, interest rates in Malaysia were increased by 0.75 percentage points to 2.75%, and left
untouched since then. With inflationary pressures gaining momentum again, Bank Negara could
hike interest rates in its next policy meeting in May this year.

Encouragingly, investment and exports are widely expected to help the country achieve growth
of around 6% in 2011. A bumper palm oil output projected at around 17.6 million in 2011, a tad
lower than the record output of 2008, will likely boost exports. Moreover, given the fact that
prices of commodities such as rubber and palm are surging, Malaysia stands to be one of the
largest gainers.

On the investment front, Malaysia’s government announced an economic transformation project

in 2010, which encourages infrastructure projects such as rail transportation systems and nuclear
power plants at the cost of $444 billion. The project already had unleashed an investment-led
growth in Malaysia last year, when newly approved factory investments grew 45% in 2010 and
manufacturing capacity expanded 13.5%. The 2011 installments are expected to help keep the
momentum of growth.

Singapore’s economy zoomed at the rate of 14.5% in 2010, the country’s fastest pace of
growth since independence in 1965. Almost all parts of the economy shot up as tourism grew
on the strength of new casinos, exports surged on the back of the pharmaceuticals and electronics
segments, and personal consumption jumped on higher wages. However, such fast-past
expansion has given rise to concerns over whether the island’s economy is operating above
potential.

With this, inflation seems to be rearing its ugly head. The Singapore government has now raised
the average inflation forecast for 2011 to around 4%, even though it may hover around 5-6% for
the first few months of 2011. The government also tempered growth expectations, forecasting a
4-6% rise in GDP for 2011, albeit with some upside potential.

With Singaporeans heading for the election ballots in 2012, inflation along with immigration are
expected to be the key issues facing the government. The government, backed by a huge budget
surplus, is facing both issues head-on. In mid-February, the government announced that it will
spend nearly S$6.6billion ($5.2 billion) in one-time tax cuts and cash hand-outs. According to
the government, the plan will help lower and middle income households adjust to the rising
lifestyle costs. Further, to reduce its dependency on immigrant labor, the government also said it
will invest substantially in technological advancement to raise productivity.

Singapore is one of those few economies that officially uses exchange rates rather than interest
rates as a tool to address inflation. The Monetary Authority of Singapore said it will decide to
strengthen its currency to address inflation in its April policy review. The Singapore dollar,
which was the second best performing currency in Asia last year, is likely to strengthen further.

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Yet, a strengthening currency could curb the pace of the country’s exports. The government has
forecasted a rise in exports of 10% for 2011, down from the 22% growth in 2010.

Pakistan: Sale of public companies to shore up the finance’s of an inflation-hit

economy

Pakistan continued to face the wrath of rising inflation throughout January. Consumer
prices have barely relented from the 17-month high of 15.7% reached in September last year.
Although Pakistan’s central bank, State Bank of Pakistan, raised interest rates thrice since July
2010, it did not hike interest rates during its February meeting. Further, with inflationary
pressures remaining high, the government withdrew a proposed plan to increase fuel prices.
However, the failure to pass on fuel price rises is likely to weaken Government’s finances
further. The country’s budget shortfall is likely to touch 8% of GDP for the fiscal ending June
2011, compared to 6.3% in the previous year. Pakistan’s GDP for the fiscal year is expected to
rise by 2.5%.

In order to prevent a further deterioration in the country’s finances, Pakistan’s finance ministry
said it will lower its bond sales. Instead the government plans to raise as much as $2 billion from
selling its stake in companies such as National Bank of Pakistan, Habib Bank Ltd and Pakistan
Petroleum Limited. The proceeds from the sale will be used to bring down the country’s budget
deficit.

Taiwan: Strong exports and better relations with China brighten outlook

Taiwan’s economy zoomed 10.5% in 2010, powered by strong growth in exports. Taiwan,
the traditional exporter of electronic components and peripheral components to major economies
such as China and the U.S., continued to make gains throughout 2010. However, the fourth
quarter of 2010 saw Taiwan’s growth cooling down to 6.5% from 9.8% in the prior quarter.

Taiwan increased interest rates thrice in 2010, and in March another rate hike by 125 basis points
to 1.75% is anticipated. It is widely expected that Taiwan will end the year with an interest rate
of 2.125%. However, as interest rates have climbed so have the capital inflows. The strong
capital inflows have driven up the value of the Taiwanese dollar, an unsavory condition for the
export-dependent economy. In the past six months alone, the Taiwanese dollar had appreciated
over 10% with respect to the U.S. dollar, hampering exporters.

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To prevent a surge in capital inflows which will push up the value of the currency, Taiwan had to
devise certain controls last year. Since 2010, Taiwan has been restricting foreign investors from
buying more than 30% of its government bond, which it issues periodically.

Nevertheless, Taiwan’s improving relations with China could spur both investments and trade.
Both countries signed a deal to cut tariffs on as many as 800 goods. With an increase in cross-
border flights and investments, Taiwan is likely to make significant gains. Interaction with China
is largely expected to help Taiwan grow at a faster pace than some of its Southeast Asian
counterparts such as Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore. Taiwan had largely lagged these
economies over the last decade, mainly due to lack of investment.

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investment will be profitable or will equal the performance of any security mentioned herein. Thomas White
International, Ltd, may, from time to time, have a position or interest in, or may buy, sell or otherwise transact in, or
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FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

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International, Ltd. undertakes no responsibility to update publicly or revise any forward looking statements.

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